Post by: TamerVirus on January 31, 2020, 12:14:51 am
Rules: Be civil and WASH YOUR HANDS, YOU FILTHY ANIMALS
(keep) WEARING A MASK
Post by: delphonso on January 31, 2020, 12:22:08 am
I'll be around to keep dismissing things and underplaying the threat. That's what I'm here for.
Best advice is all the same advice for the flu - wash hands, stay warm, and don't cough directly into your friends' mouth.
===
Post Wave Edit: I was pretty wrong at how much of a threat this was to modern society. Mostly, because I expected more out of common sense, but partially because I didn't recognize just how dangerous this virus would be. If you're reading my early posts, know I was living in a relatively uneffected region of China, and the only people I knew who tested positive for the virus were back in the US. Stay safe and stay healthy, all.
Post by: Yoink on January 31, 2020, 12:30:30 am
...and don't cough directly into your friends' mouth.Well there goes my sex life. :-\
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 31, 2020, 01:02:08 am
Post by: Egan_BW on January 31, 2020, 01:59:33 am
Post by: Imic on January 31, 2020, 03:16:18 am
Post by: delphonso on January 31, 2020, 03:24:08 am
Always wear a dental dam when coughing in each others mouths....and don't cough directly into your friends' mouth.Well there goes my sex life. :-\
Post by: King Zultan on January 31, 2020, 03:40:36 am
It was inevitable.
Post by: Folly on January 31, 2020, 05:46:17 am
After the Global Health Organization declared a Global Health Emergency yesterday, the US declared a state of Red Alert this morning.
As of January 31, coronavirus infections have been confirmed in France, Germany, Japan, the US, the UK, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, the UAE, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Canada and Nepal.
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 31, 2020, 06:48:10 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 31, 2020, 07:26:37 am
Post by: TamerVirus on January 31, 2020, 08:29:03 am
Fire God Mountain hospital (https://m.yangshipin.cn/static/2020/c0126.html)
Thunder God Mountain hospital (https://m.yangshipin.cn/video?type=2&pid=600016637)
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 31, 2020, 08:34:12 am
Post by: monkey on January 31, 2020, 08:49:03 am
A dashboard for the End.
Post by: Iduno on January 31, 2020, 08:52:42 am
Post by: Frumple on January 31, 2020, 08:52:55 am
Why livestream it?! I mean, yeah, it's a speedrun, but I don't see proper splits or a timer anywhere.The timer's offsite, oddly enough. It's the death count, you see. The sooner they finish the sooner it (hopefully) slows down some...
It's an interesting format, really. Racing speedruns, while multiple other formats are simultaneously competing.
... like, seriousness of the situation aside, that might actually be kinda' interesting? Teams competing real time across multiple games contributing to a pooled score. Speedrun triathlon tournament or somethin'.
Post by: Imic on January 31, 2020, 09:01:01 am
That said, I’m moving to Iceland first chance I get.
Post by: Frumple on January 31, 2020, 09:04:52 am
Post by: King Zultan on January 31, 2020, 09:16:50 am
That said, I’m moving to Iceland first chance I get.I'd go to Madagascar, as that was the place that always gave me trouble, you even fart at that place and they locked down everything.
Post by: TamerVirus on January 31, 2020, 09:19:32 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 31, 2020, 09:25:13 am
We weathered Spanish Flu eventually, I’m sure we can weather this.
If my memory of Extra History: Spanish Flu serves me right, it was Chinese laborers that got the Spanish Flu first. I wonder if it (and maybe this) were ancient Chinese diseases that had lain dormant underground for centuries, and that they may have been normal diseases in their time, but now we don't have an immunity.
And if memory serves, what made the Spanish Flu so lethal was that because the body had no clue how to fight against it, it triggered an unstoppable Immune-response death spiral, and patients simply died of septic shock.
Post by: scourge728 on January 31, 2020, 09:39:37 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 31, 2020, 09:46:43 am
the Global Health Organization declared a Global Health Emergency yesterdaySo let's try to rephrase it in a less panicky manner:
The WHO (not GHO) declared PHEIC yesterday (no such thing as GHE), the sixth such declaration in 11 years (so we get one every couple years), while praisng China for the hopefully successful efforts at containing the outbreak and noting the need for an intermediate status instead of the binary PHEIC/not PHEIC.
I mean, let's all swim to Madagascar and get bitten by Tsetse.
Post by: delphonso on January 31, 2020, 10:02:04 am
Yeah, the PHEIC sounded to me like 'this virus is already international' more than 'everyone is already dead.'
The US red alert seems like an overreaction, but better safe than sorry. Plus Americans like to worry and lock up in bunkers.
Boredom is definitely setting in, though. Spent all of today browsing these forums, watching old TV episodes I have saved, and trying to write. Cabin fever will probably take me before the virus does.
Post by: Iduno on January 31, 2020, 10:28:16 am
The WHO (not GHO)
Through their spokesperson Baba O'Riley?
Post by: scriver on January 31, 2020, 11:24:05 am
Post by: TamerVirus on January 31, 2020, 02:43:43 pm
Some dude tried (and failed) to leave the base so the CDC dropped the hammer on them and forced a mandatory 14 day quarantine on them all
So much for 'voluntary'
First federal quarantine in 50 years
Post by: McTraveller on January 31, 2020, 08:29:33 pm
I personally think it's overblown - the internet catalyzes everything.
Post by: delphonso on January 31, 2020, 08:33:06 pm
For instance, there's fever checks here - usually on roads before airports or other public transit. It's a mild inconvenience, but I think it makes sense.
In a moment of panic, someone blew through one of the checkpoints, hit a doctor, and killed them.
Post by: TamerVirus on January 31, 2020, 08:40:10 pm
Post by: delphonso on January 31, 2020, 10:47:53 pm
Sorry about the mess - WeChat translate jumbles things up a bit.
(https://matrix.org/_matrix/media/r0/thumbnail/matrix.org/GZszaoHdCtdlTERHQrdVdouh?width=800&height=600)
Number of recoveries is on the steady climb - hopefully it'll surpass deaths soon.
Post by: scriver on February 01, 2020, 08:12:30 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 01, 2020, 08:11:41 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 01, 2020, 08:42:04 pm
Isn't Sweden sparsely populated outside of the southern cities anyways? Whereabouts was this carrier milling?A woman in Jönköping county
Had travel history in Wuhan
Post by: delphonso on February 01, 2020, 09:36:53 pm
A bird flu has broken out in Hunan (near Hubei/Wuhan). It has not been reported in humans yet.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 01, 2020, 09:54:58 pm
Also for the sake of perspective, the metropolitan area of Wuhan has close to 20 million people, so if we were to use a Scandinavian comparator, it's roughly the same population as the entire peninsula.
This doesn't mean that caution isn't in order because with this kind of stuff it's better to be safe than sorry. But I think that the average pedestrian can amplify his relaxed state. We're not looking at a 28 days later scenario.
Post by: Cthulhu on February 02, 2020, 08:47:10 pm
I've heard it has a seven day course of infection. Rolling back the number of infections to a week ago makes the death rate look substantially spookier, can't exactly count people who started showing symptoms yesterday as survivors.
I guess we'll see how it goes. I don't think it will be as big a deal outside China. Remember incubation is up to two weeks, so the first cases in December had been contagious for quite a while. It's been long enough that I don't think we're going to have the same problem at least in America and Europe. Looks like we didn't get any early incubating travelers, or at least not many. So hopefully we have time to keep it contained.
Post by: coalboat on February 02, 2020, 09:39:52 pm
I agree it might not infect a lot globally, as most of the world have already been refusing travellers from China(which is where I live), but it may still infect many inside the country.
I wonder if there are anyone who was in Brazil during the Zika epidemic. Is the coronavirus situation worse than Zika?
Post by: delphonso on February 02, 2020, 09:58:14 pm
There's sporadic reports coming out of Wuhan, of uncertain provenance, of doctors treating a hundred people a day and funeral homes overloaded with dead. In any case it's probably a safe bet not to trust official numbers from China.
I've heard this twice on this forum and nowhere else. Got a link? I might be able to shine some light on the situation.
This Zika virus question is good. I've only been making comparisons to SARS - but that was some time ago.
Post by: coalboat on February 02, 2020, 10:11:25 pm
of doctors treating a hundred people a day and funeral homes overloaded with dead.
With thousands infected a hundred patients a day is not unexpected. And some of the deceased were not directly killed by the virus but by the sudden paralysis of public service.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 02, 2020, 10:45:53 pm
This guy (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ksuThUZQLnc) got arrested by the police for filming this, but was released because the video already went viral
I don’t the numbers China puts out because:
1. There is a massive bottleneck in testing kits available + time it takes for testing
2. A continual stream of videos that kept saying the ground situation is worse than reported
3. The Chinese government’s history of information censorship
4. The fact that China seems really into arresting folks who have any grievances with China’s response (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xykx/you-can-now-go-to-jail-in-china-for-criticizing-beijings-coronavirus-response)
Post by: delphonso on February 03, 2020, 12:57:19 am
Banning media and arresting dissodents is common here. Take the pollution in Beijing as an example. Several journalists got nabbed, but since then, Beijing's air quality has genuinely improved. It seems thats the price for progress.
I do find this video disturbing, though - since this guy just wandered in. If these are related to coronavirus, the security/contamination risks are outrageous. Bodies just sitting in an open van? Unheard of.
I can't even walk into a supermarket here without being stopped and getting my temperature taken.
Post by: scriver on February 03, 2020, 06:57:43 am
Sweden evacuated her citizens yesterday (or at least some of them) and now they're in "voluntary quarantine". I wonder how that works. Pizza every day? I guess this is the only upside of being able to pay for stuff without as much need for cash.
Post by: Cthulhu on February 03, 2020, 01:35:26 pm
Post by: Teneb on February 03, 2020, 05:53:00 pm
I wonder if there are anyone who was in Brazil during the Zika epidemic. Is the coronavirus situation worse than Zika?Zika is only lethal if untreated. It's basically a weaker form of Dengue. Chicungunha popped up at the same time (and is also basically Dengue), and you didn't hear much about it.
What made it actually newsworthy was its effects on fetuses.
Post by: coalboat on February 03, 2020, 09:16:00 pm
Zika is only lethal if untreated. It's basically a weaker form of Dengue. Chicungunha popped up at the same time (and is also basically Dengue), and you didn't hear much about it.
What made it actually newsworthy was its effects on fetuses.
Thanks for the information. Currently the danger of coronavirus swings between "very lethal and may leave survivor disabled and highly contagious" and "not more dangerous than regular flu" according to different anecdotal news and stories.
While the virus doesn't seem to be very contagious in other places around the world(at least from the known cases so far), most parts of the country have deployed de facto war-time administrating, which might become normal status even after the epidemic. Media's freedom is only going to be more non-existent.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 04, 2020, 05:32:39 pm
Concerning...
Too bad the CDC has been dragging their feet on actually verifying these things
Post by: coalboat on February 04, 2020, 09:56:27 pm
People are reading and forwarding various versions of the "one year in hell Bosnian civil war survivor" article lol.
Post by: Folly on February 05, 2020, 03:45:54 am
Outside of China the numbers are:
Australia (at least 13 cases)
Belgium (at least 1 case)
Cambodia (at least 1 case)
Canada (at least 5 cases)
Finland (at least 1 case)
France (at least 6 cases)
Germany (at least 12 cases)
Hong Kong (at least 18 cases, 1 death)
India (at least 3 cases)
Italy (at least 2 cases)
Japan (at least 23 cases, plus 10 in cruise ship quarantine)
Macao (at least 10 cases)
Malaysia (at least 10 cases)
Nepal (at least 1 case)
Philippines (at least 3 cases, 1 death)
Russia (at least 2 cases)
Singapore (at least 24 cases)
South Korea (at least 18 cases)
Spain (at least 1 case)
Sri Lanka (at least 1 case)
Sweden (at least 1 case)
Taiwan (at least 11 cases)
Thailand (at least 25 cases)
United Arab Emirates (at least 5 cases)
United Kingdom (at least 2 cases)
United States (at least 11 cases)
Vietnam (at least 10 cases)
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 05:14:10 am
Honestly this is extremely suspicious.. Something isn't right about this and the general nonchalant attitude toward this virus. Many are downplaying this and wrongfully comparing it the flu, not recognizing its lethality.. This isn't a normal flu. Macau Casinoes have completely closed down, an entire city of 50+ million quarantined, steel barricades being installed in their doors to stop exit, "rumors" of crematoriums at full usage... Is anyone bothered how many people in the West don't care at all? As if we're untouchable? Already 11 cases confirmed in the US.. More than even some other Asian countries in the geographical area of China.
Post by: scriver on February 05, 2020, 06:44:00 am
Post by: Folly on February 05, 2020, 06:53:07 am
On the other hand, there seems to be a growing sentiment among analysts that there is no longer any hope of containing this virus, and quarantine efforts will only slow it down until we find a treatment. Also, treatments tried thus far have proven much less effective than initially hoped. So yeah...this could very possibly escalate significantly.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 05, 2020, 07:41:16 am
Quote from: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/24/coronavirus-fears-rise-chinese-cover-up-40-million-lockdown/
Sophie Richardson, China director at Human Rights Watch (HRW), said that the unexpected quarantine and China's broader response to the crisis also raised real concerns about transparency.
"From a medical and human rights perspective, it is essential in these situations that people can trust the information available," she told The Telegraph.
"I have real concerns about people who are supposedly "spreading rumours" being harassed by authorities, especially at a time when people are concerned they are not getting accurate information."
Many health experts who would have been "best equipped to sound the alarm about the coronavirus early" had been detained or their research halted because they were not working within the Chinese state system, she cautioned. "They have been treated as anarchists instead.”
The silencing of critics by an authoritarian regime that not only hides the truth from its population, but often creates a culture of fear that stifles the flow of bad news upwards, may offer some clues as to why the Wuhan crisis has seemingly spiraled out of control.
The first case was reported on December 8, when officials reported that it was under control and treatable. The police questioned eight people for allegedly spreading “rumours” online, and as late as last weekend, the authorities hosted a potluck banquet attended by more than 40,000 families.
It was only as the disease spread to other cities that their public denial ended and the government’s unplanned rapid response kicked in.
Really throwing rocks in glass houses when it's likely they do not even have accurate information of how bad things are because the leadership have scared their subordinates & civilians into silence. Props to Chinagov for impressive damage control, but it is damage control mitigated by structural weakness
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 07:49:53 am
Mostly death by internal asphyxiation or blood flooding the lungs would be the case of death. The leaked videos directly from the ground from Chinese citizens tell a different story. People just falling down to their deaths in a collapse? This isn't a regular "flu". The most lethal aspect of this virus is that it can remain dormant for 14 days until it "activates". Between the timeframe of 14 days you wouldn't even know if you had it. That 1 Cruise at the coast of Japan right now has probably the whole passenger complement already afflicted, considering if we go by rate of infection and the fact that 10 were infected at the time.
This virus.. Isn't natural. Ebola is purportedly similar to this Novel Corona because they both supposedly originate from "animals". Except Ebola wasn't as sophisticated as this one at all. This is very advanced.. I'll stop here because it seems like I'm rambling on. Something is really amiss here though, doesn't help that China isn't properly informing us intel to aid an effort for a solution.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 05, 2020, 07:54:55 am
This virus.. Isn't natural.Natural viruses can't melt steel beams. For fuck's sake, people.
Post by: delphonso on February 05, 2020, 07:58:57 am
Post by: George_Chickens on February 05, 2020, 08:04:19 am
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 08:07:28 am
Already there have been 11 cases... Remember that the epicentre of where Corona started began at 44 infected.. Look at how far its spread already, to every province in China. We don't even know if the death toll is really in a measely 400s range. Multiple reports of them cremating bodies daily. This is getting out of hand..
EDIT (Ninja'd):
A woman in Venezuela (I think) became a confirmed case but without any symptoms. Lidka, if this was a bioweapon, I think these cases would be non-existent. Also, about 600 people have gotten this and are back out on the streets already.
How do we know that "recovered" people are still in the clear? They can still collapse even with the secondary obvious symptoms subsided. The fact that this virus is in Venezuela this fast.. is unbelievable....
Wow, those whacky Chinese sure are evil. They release a bioweapon on their own citizens, AND they make it less lethal than SARS. So they suffer for longer, obviously.
They could have easily released it by mistake, maybe they were brewing it up in an event of a War taking place. Its naive to think we don't have anything up our sleeves either.
EDIT: We don't know the real mortality/lethal rate since China is not providing adequate documentation. This is definitely far worse and infection than SARS.
Post by: coalboat on February 05, 2020, 08:08:55 am
Post by: scriver on February 05, 2020, 08:09:50 am
Mostly death by internal asphyxiation or blood flooding the lungs would be the case of death. The leaked videos directly from the ground from Chinese citizens tell a different story. People just falling down to their deaths in a collapse? This isn't a regular "flu".
The only thing less reliable than the Chinese government is just any random people, mate
Post by: coalboat on February 05, 2020, 08:17:28 am
This is definitely far worse and infection than SARS.
This is actually what I suspect but I wouldn't say "definitely" and I wouldn't imply its bio-weapon when there's no solid evidence. What I would say is that it has infected much more people than SARS.
Whether it were a leaked bio-weapon or not, you have to take every measure you need for an epidemic.
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 08:18:07 am
Mostly death by internal asphyxiation or blood flooding the lungs would be the case of death. The leaked videos directly from the ground from Chinese citizens tell a different story. People just falling down to their deaths in a collapse? This isn't a regular "flu".
The only thing less reliable than the Chinese government is just any random people, mate
But the people in China recording are primary sources, witness accounts. Chinese nationals know their own government well- they wouldn't risk their hide with the Chinesegov bearing down on all of without a FRIGGIN' good reason, especially when citizens are being detained for exposure on the ground material for viewership. We've seen gruesome things afoot from there. The thing that has gotten me the most is the sepsis "sudden death" syndrome.
An India research firm (even though they "retracted" their information) laid an implication that this virus is HIV-like.. So even if you seem recovered from the outside, the sudden death syndrome can still trigger. Not only that, you'd still be a vector.. I honestly believe China not opening up to full international cooperation will be a death sentence to us all. Too much misinformation downplaying this, too much critical pieces being shown that don't match up with "official" reports..
Post by: TamerVirus on February 05, 2020, 08:24:06 am
He ended up developing pneumonia after a long hospitalization, but managed to recover. I think he was discharged back to home monitoring two or three days ago. They used remdesivir on him.
Post by: coalboat on February 05, 2020, 08:26:07 am
And if you are not scientist, you can't actually know if the paper says what you think it says.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 05, 2020, 08:32:59 am
Wow, those whacky Chinese sure are evil. They release a bioweapon on their own citizens, AND they make it less lethal than SARS. So they suffer for longer, obviously.
They could have easily released it by mistake, maybe they were brewing it up in an event of a War taking place. Its naive to think we don't have anything up our sleeves either.
*I* think that's implausible, if only because infectious bioweapons aren't very good weapons at all. The odds of massive collateral damage to your own citizens and allies is way too large, even if you have an antidote already prepared in mass quantities. And then if an antidote gets into circulation, your enemies can reverse engineer it. I suppose you could try to sneakily vaccinate all your own troops and citizens en masse, so you could have a one-sided kill agent, but if it's capable of mutation at all, and I don't know how you could stop it from mutating, that's a risky gamble that can backfire in your face. Germs/viruses are very bad allies.
Though I suppose I can easily imagine people being stupid and doing something like trying to make a bioweapon anyway, even with all the risks.
Post by: delphonso on February 05, 2020, 08:35:47 am
This is actually what I suspect but I wouldn't say "definitely" and I wouldn't imply its bio-weapon when there's no solid evidence. What I would say is that it has infected much more people than SARS.
Generally viruses slide on a scale: high infection rates are less deadly. The reason for that is simple - if a virus is very deadly, the carrier is out of the game quicker and therefore spread it less. The worst in history are around 30% deadly - since that gives enough time to spread, and still stacks up bodies.
But the people in China recording are primary sources, witness accounts.coalboat (right?) and I are also in China. My bud in Wuhan has said it's rough to be shut in all the time, but it's not Raccoon City over there. Crematories are always packed, btw.
I get your sentiments, really I do - but panic is the deadliest part of any disaster. I believe China's actions have been in line with trying to suppress the virus first, then suppress the panic second.
The US is going through an election cycle with a President who has had a bizarre relationship to China. I think the US's actions can be called into question easily at this time.
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 08:39:19 am
JoshuaFH: Exactly. Hopefully this resolved and the parties if it was we think released it should be brought to justice. This is also mere speculation though. It could've been exotic meat, considering Ebola had a similar debut.
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 08:40:10 am
Post by: coalboat on February 05, 2020, 08:44:19 am
Besides, from the video you don't know if the death is "sudden". One could suffocate from compromised lungs and in the same time look just fine from afar. If there's real "sudden death" case the WHO has no reason not to reveal.
Post by: delphonso on February 05, 2020, 08:51:35 am
Some xiaoqu have been quarantined in Kunming - if there's a suspected case in a building, they lock up the whole place until it's confirmed and everyone gets tested. They're recommending everyone stay inside as much as they can, and fever checks happen frequently when you're out. Everyone has taken it seriously here, and are uncertain. I think that's why I'm so adamant about not panicking and worrying people further.
Post by: Folly on February 05, 2020, 08:52:38 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 05, 2020, 08:55:51 am
What? Check reddit with actual medical personnel in US hospitals- we aren't ready if this epidemic takes hold. US doctors are consistently overloaded during the flu season where not enough beds to treat everyone- just like China right now. Now just imagine this virus. I don't know if US citizens have the same grit as the Chinese Doctors literally working themselves to death to try and elevate the virus. The fact there is already 11 cases in the US.. is mind boggling. Worse is that alot of the cases seem to be in the West Coast. The homeless there can't be allowed to catch it..Oh my god 11 cases in a country with 200+million inhabitants. Oh the humanity.
JoshuaFH: Exactly. Hopefully this resolved and the parties if it was we think released it should be brought to justice. This is also mere speculation though. It could've been exotic meat, considering Ebola had a similar debut.
You're going into hysterics over nothing.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 05, 2020, 08:56:07 am
Hmmm... I don't know if this was posted here yet, but it seems as if Cruise Ship "Diamond Princess" has been quarantined completely due to 10 confirmed cases of Coronovirus aboard the vessel.
That’s 3700 people being quarantined for 14 days on a boat. Cruise ship rooms can be pretty tiny. Wouldn’t want to be the ones in the interior staterooms with no window...
Post by: Iduno on February 05, 2020, 08:57:38 am
This virus.. Isn't natural. Ebola is purportedly similar to this Novel Corona because they both supposedly originate from "animals".
So does the flu most years, and, in fact, a lot of viruses.
What? Check reddit
Ah, the most reliable source on Internet. A bunch of people you don't know on a website known for defending Nazi-ism, pedophilia, and conspiracy theories.
Post by: Lidku on February 05, 2020, 09:03:06 am
Post by: delphonso on February 05, 2020, 09:09:04 am
Post by: Folly on February 05, 2020, 09:32:59 am
What? Check redditAh, the most reliable source on Internet. A bunch of people you don't know on a website known for defending Nazi-ism, pedophilia, and conspiracy theories.
I've seen this board check all three of those categories, multiple times.
A few bad apples doesn't make the whole medium corrupt.
Post by: coalboat on February 05, 2020, 10:59:30 am
stockpiling guns and cans of beans.
Yunnan where villagers have gun and slab of opium in their cellar ;)
Post by: Teneb on February 05, 2020, 11:30:52 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 05, 2020, 11:32:57 am
So apparently Tencent did a whoopsie and released what might be *real* data on the infection and death rates (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594) before changing their tune to match the CCP's numbers.Absolute madlads
Post by: delphonso on February 05, 2020, 11:44:47 am
If a real conspiracy was about, Tencent - the equivalent of Facebook - wouldn't have the 'real' numbers in the same database as fake numbers.
Yunnan where villagers have gun and slab of opium in their cellar ;)No joke. If things go bad I'm probably screwed. Some dude raised a bear here thinking it was a dog.
Post by: scriver on February 05, 2020, 12:11:47 pm
In the related articles, there's one that says coronavirus is unkillable.
What is dead may never die
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 05, 2020, 12:17:06 pm
Post by: Stench Guzman on February 05, 2020, 12:35:51 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 05, 2020, 12:49:58 pm
Post by: Ulfarr on February 05, 2020, 12:50:24 pm
Honestly I don't see any reason to prefer one version of data over the other. Lots of goverments have tried to obscure the truth to protect their intersets before and news media thrive on fear mongering so they always try to overblow any report or story in order to generate more views/sales and gain more profits.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 05, 2020, 12:54:25 pm
But rises... harder, strongerIn the related articles, there's one that says coronavirus is unkillable.
What is dead may never die
(That's what she said)
Post by: Trekkin on February 05, 2020, 01:02:48 pm
Well there is an easy way to test those rumors and the supposedly "leaked", "real" numbers. Now that the virus has gone global and if said rumors are true then in the next 20 or so days, we can expect similarily huge numbers to be reported/get leaked from all over the world and good luck containing them in that case
Except that it's an RNA virus, so its mutation rate is notoriously high. Trying to extrapolate from later variants is extremely error-prone.
Post by: Ulfarr on February 05, 2020, 01:14:55 pm
All I'm saying is that if the virus can speard as easily and is as deadly as the rumors claim then we are going to witness an unexpectedly big increase in the reported numbers from all over the world. And since these reports will come from different countries with probably different interests/priorities then it will be a lot more difficult if not impossible to contain/obscure the new numbers.
Post by: Iduno on February 05, 2020, 01:25:51 pm
What? Check redditAh, the most reliable source on Internet. A bunch of people you don't know on a website known for defending Nazi-ism, pedophilia, and conspiracy theories.
I've seen this board check all three of those categories, multiple times.
A few bad apples doesn't make the whole medium corrupt.
Yes, but we also haven't hit such a high percentage that it's known as our thing.
In the related articles, there's one that says coronavirus is unkillable.
I guess that is technically true, in that viruses aren't generally considered living.
Post by: Trekkin on February 05, 2020, 01:50:41 pm
I'm afraid I'm missing the point that you are making Trekkin :-\
All I'm saying is that if the virus can speard as easily and is as deadly as the rumors claim then we are going to witness an unexpectedly big increase in the reported numbers from all over the world. And since these reports will come from different countries with probably different interests/priorities then it will be a lot more difficult if not impossible to contain/obscure the new numbers.
Right, and I'm not saying that's not a sensible approach to take, only that it's more complicated to do so than it might first appear. RNA viruses mutate millions of times more rapidly than their hosts, and they tend to trend more pathogenic over time, selective pressure being what it is. This has two main implications for trying to detect falsified numbers in its spread:
1. The virus that shows up in other countries may well not be Wuhan's 2019-nCov, genetically speaking, by the time it does, and we'd expect a priori that the more virulent strains are more likely to spread. If other countries do show that "Wuhan coronavirus" is worse than China is reporting, that could easily really be the case.
2. We're all talking about this virus like it's one homogenous population. It probably isn't, even now, so it's reasonable to expect different outcomes to correlate to genetic variation -- which might also account for misdiagnoses that become obvious in hindsight. If later estimates are higher, it may well be because we found a more complete set of rtPCR primers with which to reduce the false negative rate.
All I'm saying is that we should wait on extrapolating out the odds that China is fudging its numbers before we have a sense of the underlying phylogenetics of the outbreak.
Post by: Ulfarr on February 05, 2020, 02:27:22 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 05, 2020, 03:52:13 pm
Post by: coalboat on February 05, 2020, 09:56:05 pm
Post by: Lidku on February 06, 2020, 02:16:22 am
A 30 hour year old baby has already contracted it. This means that this virus IS like HIV, were the offspring of an infected can pass it on through Mother-to-Child transmission... Very strange..
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 06, 2020, 03:08:30 am
Post by: coalboat on February 06, 2020, 03:23:01 am
Post by: George_Chickens on February 06, 2020, 03:26:33 am
A 30 hour year old baby has already contracted it. This means that this virus IS like HIV, were the offspring of an infected can pass it on through Mother-to-Child transmission... Very strange..Or the infected mother could have coughed on it, or it came in contact with infected fluids from someone else.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 06, 2020, 03:29:44 am
A 30 hour year old baby has already contracted it. This means that this virus IS like HIV, were the offspring of an infected can pass it on through Mother-to-Child transmission... Very strange..Or the infected mother could have coughed on it, or it came in contact with infected fluids from someone else.
If the baby is only 30 hours old, I don't think the virus would have time to incubate even if it were infected the instant it was born. It could have been contracted prenatally, though that seems very odd for a respiratory virus.
@Zultan: Sorry I deleted and then rewrote the post, I felt like I was making assumptions and I didn't want to seem like I was talking out of my ass.
Post by: King Zultan on February 06, 2020, 03:30:53 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 06, 2020, 03:40:51 am
Lidku, you are like those pottery vessels that are no longer whole but not yet broken.Lidku has forgotten the face of his father
Post by: TamerVirus on February 06, 2020, 02:25:29 pm
Meanwhile, Wuhan is now rounding up people and putting them in mass quarantine camps in stadiums, convention centers and the like
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 06, 2020, 02:33:58 pm
Dr Li Wenliang, one of the 8 original whistleblowers arrested for 'spreading rumors' after sounding the alarm, contracted the virus and died today.Or did he?
Quote from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/whistleblower-chinese-doctor-dies-from-coronavirus
The fate of a whistleblowing Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the coronavirus outbreak is unclear after state media stepped back from earlier reports that he had died.
A report in the Communist party-controlled Global Times newspaper on Thursday claimed Li Wenliang, 34, had died earlier that day.
But the newspaper subsequently deleted the story from its official Twitter account, publishing another report that claimed the ophthalmologist was fighting for his life in intensive care.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 06, 2020, 02:44:21 pm
Edit: Now officially confirmed deceased by CCTV (https://weibointl.api.weibo.cn/share/120816320.html?weibo_id=4469178809052154) RIP
Post by: Lidku on February 06, 2020, 07:38:20 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 06, 2020, 08:43:29 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 06, 2020, 08:57:39 pm
Coronavirus has been found in feces, which is an additional means of transmission.
Post by: coalboat on February 06, 2020, 09:50:48 pm
Post by: Lidku on February 06, 2020, 09:58:33 pm
https://www.latimes.com/travel/story/2020-02-05/coronavirus-cruise-passengers-diamond-princess
41 more discerned to be infected from the nCoV virus as of now from the previously recorded 20. This means a total of 61 passengers aboard the Diamond Princess are now infected from this virulence. This has an extremely fast acting rate of infection... Note that it has been only 3 days EDIT: since quarantine has been established.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 06, 2020, 10:53:03 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 06, 2020, 10:57:34 pm
Post by: Lidku on February 06, 2020, 11:04:57 pm
Check this biopsy report. Like SARS this virus bares acute patterns of Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). This means the virus is attracted to parts of the body in humans that bare this same mechanism. Namely found in the endothelial cells of the heart and kidneys, which is also found in trace amount in the lungs- just enough to cause "pneumonia" as reported. Though realistically it seems this virus main focal point of vection is the heart- which maybe the reasons of the "sudden death collapse" syndrome we've been witnessing. It either causes a heart attack from the rapid replication in the inner heart or sepsis shock from the sheer number of replicant 2019 nCoV in the blood stream of the infected.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 06, 2020, 11:58:59 pm
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
Check this biopsy report. Like SARS this virus bares acute patterns of Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). This means the virus is attracted to parts of the body in humans that bare this same mechanism. Namely found in the endothelial cells of the heart and kidneys, which is also found in trace amount in the lungs- just enough to cause "pneumonia" as reported. Though realistically it seems this virus main focal point of vection is the heart- which maybe the reasons of the "sudden death collapse" syndrome we've been witnessing. It either causes a heart attack from the rapid replication in the inner heart or sepsis shock from the sheer number of replicant 2019 nCoV in the blood stream of the infected.
Quote from: Single-cell RNA expression profiling of ACE2, the putative receptor of Wuhan 2019-nCov
Altogether, in the current study, we report the RNA expression profile of ACE2 in the human lung at single-cell resolution. Our analysis suggested that the expression of ACE2 is concentrated in a special population of AT2 which expresses many other genes favoring the viral process. This conclusion is different from the previous report which observed abundant ACE2 not only in AT2, but also in endothelial cells8. In fact, to our knowledge, endothelial cells sometimes can be non-specifically stained in immunohistochemical analysis
You don't know what you're talking about and you don't even read the stuff you link, which actually contradicts the shit you make up. You're the ur-example of a fake news vector.
Post by: coalboat on February 07, 2020, 12:21:00 am
Lidku, the video is not proof for the sudden death collapse you talk about. I don't know how many materials make their way to youtube but maybe you should chekc out the situation in Wuhan. Bus and metro have stopped. Pneumonia patients have to walk to hospital when they already have trouble breathing. Temperature outdoor is lower than 40F/5C. When they get to the hospital they're told it's full and can't accept any more patients. Some patients call for help on social media and post everyday as their disease get worse. Some of them are arranged into hospital because this is bad image for the State. Some die before they can be admitted into hospital. A few even recover on their own. Army guard the highways from Wuhan to keep people from escaping quarantine. Cancer and HIV patients are running out of their daily medicine because of traffic control. This is unlikely to happen in other places(probably not even in other Chinese cities) again as the epidemic is already known and new cases are monitored.
Post by: Lidku on February 07, 2020, 12:25:45 am
Who knows maybe Lidku is the whistleblower of bay12??? :o
Lidku, the video is not proof for the sudden death collapse you talk about. I don't know how many materials make their way to youtube but maybe you should chekc out the situation in Wuhan. Bus and metro have stopped. Pneumonia patients have to walk to hospital when they already have trouble breathing. Temperature outdoor is lower than 40F/5C. When they get to the hospital they're told it's full and can't accept any more patients. Some patients call for help on social media and post everyday as their disease get worse. Some of them are arranged into hospital because this is bad image for the State. Some die before they can be admitted into hospital. A few even recover on their own. Army guard the highways from Wuhan to keep people from escaping quarantine. Cancer and HIV patients are running out of their daily medicine because of traffic control. This is unlikely to happen in other places(probably not even in other Chinese cities) again as the epidemic is already known and new cases are monitored.
The "sudden death syndrome" hasn't only occurred in mainland China, it has also been witnessed and documented in Hong Kong. This is troubling.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 07, 2020, 12:50:19 am
Post by: Lidku on February 07, 2020, 01:19:33 am
Another report. It suggests that smoker populations have heightened development of the ACE2 receptors mentioned... What about figures of non-smokers, but have obtained second hand occurrences of it? Or smoke pollution in general?
Post by: Trekkin on February 07, 2020, 05:15:38 am
Why do you seem so keen on downplaying this virion?
Probably because he's aware, as most of us are, that there is literally nothing laypeople can do to materially affect this epidemic except to keep calm and follow the instructions of the relevant medical experts. All frantic hypothesizing by amateurs is going to do is spread more noise and panic at a time when people have quite enough of both.
There's a reason I haven't been spamming the thread with sequences and homology models and things of that nature: worried people have a way of scanning complex datasets for worrisome information and ignoring all context from there on out, and I don't want anyone to panic just because they ran a BLAST and found a similarity to something bad or found a way to extract scary numbers from the structures. The information that can help legitimate efforts to fight this thing is already being put into the hands of people who have the training and resources to do useful things with it, including distilling it into instructions you can help by following. All you need to do -- and indeed, the best thing to do -- is to cooperate with expert advice and let people do their jobs.
Post by: scriver on February 07, 2020, 07:53:49 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 07, 2020, 08:37:35 am
12 suspected passengers who had China travel history and are displaying pulmonary symptoms
Post by: King Zultan on February 07, 2020, 09:11:28 am
he looks into people's buttsI've heard that you can go to jail for that if you don't have the proper licenses.
Post by: Teneb on February 07, 2020, 09:54:36 am
Fortunately, he does. I hope.he looks into people's buttsI've heard that you can go to jail for that if you don't have the proper licenses.
Post by: Ulfarr on February 07, 2020, 10:00:52 am
I've heard that jail is the proper place to go to have your butt looked into.Fortunately, he does. I hope.he looks into people's buttsI've heard that you can go to jail for that if you don't have the proper licenses.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 07, 2020, 10:09:37 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 07, 2020, 01:09:00 pm
Post by: Iduno on February 07, 2020, 02:41:03 pm
Je suis une pomme de terre
Man, that's a bland apple. Crunchy, though.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 07, 2020, 04:27:16 pm
Now the WHO says that the clock RESETS (https://www.npr.org/2020/02/07/803843303/on-cruise-ship-quarantined-in-japan-any-new-cases-would-reset-the-isolation-cloc) if new cases develop
It's the Hotel California cruise
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 07, 2020, 06:37:35 pm
The ship was one color, a dark shade of blue
As I saw the sun set, I thought I should get some rest
Some people thought my pool skills were the best
So I played with them some more
We played until night’s end
I was ready to sleep
Whenever I closed my eyes
I heard something that sounded like a beep
I woke up and was ready to make the beeping end
Is that singing coming from the walls?
Then I heard the ship sing
Welcome to cruise ship Yakohama
You’re in a new place (You’re in a new place)
You are a new face
Lots of space here on cruise ship Yakohama
Please have no fear (please have no fear) Do you like it here?
I did not know what to say to it, this was so very odd
I thought back to when I played pool, I decided to nod
Some people were swimming, less than yesterday
Asking where people went, they are in Sick Bay
So I asked the person here
What happened last night?
He said We seem to have found a new virus, don’t panic, hang tight
And then we both heard a voice, I recognized it
I told him It is the voice of the ship
Yakohama than sang
welcome to cruise ship Yakohama
You all need to stay (you all need to stay) there is a delay
There is a new disease (a new disease) Time for quarantines
Each new infected person resets the quarantine
So no one can leave (no one can leave) I am sorry
Looking around I saw people dying
we are stuck here
we are stuck here
The dead are filling the corpse rooms, the living not far behind
We are all sick here, lots of us will not survive
The quarantine will ensure the disease doesn’t leave the ship
The is in all of us, no one can get a grip
The disease may kill us, but at least it’s confined
If it left and infected more, I would lose my mind
Live the rest of your lives on cruise ship Yakohama, I will be containment for the disease
Knowing that the virus can not escape should put you at ease
The quarantine shall ensure other people some safety
There will be sacrifice (will be sacrifice) overall it’s nice
While people will get sick and/or die in cruise ship Yakohama
The virus won’t spread anymore, upon death
Live the rest of your life on cruise ship Yakohama
Your sacrifice (your sacrifice) helps humankind
Post by: delphonso on February 07, 2020, 08:31:06 pm
On the panic front - someone in Wuhan used pure alcohol to clean their air conditioner and then turned it on - burning down the entire apartment building, basically. No new news on cures from what I've heard.
Post by: coalboat on February 07, 2020, 09:33:21 pm
Someone made a monument for Li Wenliang on ethereum blockchain.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 07, 2020, 09:38:54 pm
Naturegirl1999 what is the music for this song?
Hotel California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owe3kuOntxc
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 07, 2020, 09:53:51 pm
Naturegirl1999 what is the music for this song?
Hotel California: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owe3kuOntxc
Naturegirl1999 what is the music for this song?Yep I tried to keep syllable count
Someone made a monument for Li Wenliang on ethereum blockchain.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 07, 2020, 11:17:16 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Superdorf on February 07, 2020, 11:37:03 pm
Post by: Trekkin on February 07, 2020, 11:38:59 pm
Post by: Mech#4 on February 08, 2020, 01:35:56 am
I am irrationally disappointed that they chose to model a bacteriophage when we know coronavirus is spherical.
Fill a hamster ball with beer?
Post by: delphonso on February 08, 2020, 02:13:28 am
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hJnk8wCxTao/hqdefault.jpg)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 08, 2020, 12:13:04 pm
I am irrationally disappointed that they chose to model a bacteriophage when we know coronavirus is spherical.Yes, Coronavirus is not a bacteriophage. If it was, we eukaryotes would not be affected
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 08, 2020, 12:49:42 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 08, 2020, 01:03:04 pm
Excuse me are you assuming my clade?As far as I know, bacteria and archaea have not developed multicellular colonies with manipulation appendages, so yes. Until non eukaryotes develop appendages for manipulation, it is assumed that posters on the forum are eukaryotes, due to eukaryotes so far being the only clade with appendages for manipulating objects
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 08, 2020, 01:20:35 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 08, 2020, 01:30:04 pm
I self identify as archaeaDo you live in hot springs? High salt concentrations? If you have nuclei in any of your cells you are a eukaryote, though interestingly, the nucleus’s DNA is more similar to archaea than to bacteria. A hypothesis is that a eukaryote started due to a mutualism between a bacterium and an archaea
Post by: TamerVirus on February 08, 2020, 06:16:17 pm
Post by: Folly on February 08, 2020, 09:52:36 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 08, 2020, 10:17:28 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 09, 2020, 01:09:13 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 09, 2020, 01:21:41 am
Let’s see how that plays out
Post by: Reelya on February 09, 2020, 01:23:42 am
Yes, though it's worth noting that Corona has a much lower lethality rate compared to SARS. It's just spreading much faster.
Also note some influenza strains. HN51 influenza had a 60% casuality rate, compare that to the roughly 2% for coronavirus. The only thing stopping it was that it didn't have a high person to person transmission rate. They noted that just a couple of mutations would be needed to make airbourne HN51 a reality.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2020, 01:38:25 am
Anyways, China is supposed to go back to work on Monday.Everyone is going back to work on monday you fool. That's what mondays are about
Let’s see how that plays out
Post by: delphonso on February 09, 2020, 01:41:38 am
Anyways, China is supposed to go back to work on Monday.
Let’s see how that plays out
Don't know about coalboat, but everyone at my job is working from home until Feb 24th at least. Not a big change, but a bit sick of being inside.
Post by: scriver on February 09, 2020, 07:00:00 am
Post by: delphonso on February 09, 2020, 07:23:33 am
Post by: scriver on February 09, 2020, 07:27:06 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 09, 2020, 07:31:33 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2020, 08:06:13 am
Also: the antivaccination girls https://youtu.be/zdfe7-qIzgs
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 09, 2020, 06:02:53 pm
It's going global
Post by: TamerVirus on February 09, 2020, 06:10:39 pm
They raised their pandemic level to Orange (SARS level) which led to a run on the supermarkets
But we also have seasonal flu so I don’t know why they’re so concerned 8)
Post by: Trolldefender99 on February 09, 2020, 07:32:12 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-is-airborne-chinese-official-confirms/news-story/201218c04deb601b1b144f4cbbc4d807
And it can supposedly travel pretty far distances.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2020, 08:44:59 pm
Post by: King Zultan on February 10, 2020, 02:04:28 am
*farts loudly*You've doomed us all!
Post by: coalboat on February 10, 2020, 05:51:33 am
*farts loudly*
This can actually create viral aerosol.
People are travelling to beijing, shanghai, and guangdong en masse, but stay in home after arrival mostly.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 10, 2020, 07:42:16 am
*farts loudly*
This can actually create viral aerosol.
Now selling the latest and greatest anti-infection hardware: Butt Covers*! For those infected, they can atleast spare the rest of the world of their loathsome, murderous farts with this brand new invention. Only $50 each!
*please disregard the similarity to offbrand adult diapers.
Post by: Iduno on February 10, 2020, 09:07:43 am
Incredible.
On the panic front - someone in Wuhan used pure alcohol to clean their air conditioner and then turned it on - burning down the entire apartment building, basically. No new news on cures from what I've heard.
Which is probably a fine idea, if you remember the step of letting it dry first. And maybe not using enough to be flammable.
Anyways, China is supposed to go back to work on Monday.Everyone is going back to work on monday you fool. That's what mondays are about
Let’s see how that plays out
Also, being too tired to come up with a good excuse to call in sick.
A more accurate model:
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/hJnk8wCxTao/hqdefault.jpg)
Here is a comprehensive list of times when adding beer to a mixed drink made it better:
Post by: delphonso on February 10, 2020, 09:21:15 am
Which is really a bigger threat to humanity?
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 10, 2020, 10:13:48 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 10, 2020, 10:14:50 am
Post by: delphonso on February 11, 2020, 11:43:54 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 11, 2020, 11:45:42 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 11, 2020, 11:50:40 am
COVI - coronavirus
D- disease
19- 2019
Really doesn't matter right now though as everyone is calling it Coronavirus or Wuhan virus
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 11, 2020, 11:53:31 am
Post by: Ulfarr on February 11, 2020, 11:53:50 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 11, 2020, 12:02:43 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 11, 2020, 12:15:03 pm
Not exactly. COVID 19 refers to the disease caused by 2019-nCov.Right!
2019-nCoV has instead been renamed to SARS-Cov-2 by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.937862v1)
Literally SARS 2- Cytokine Boogaloo
Post by: scriver on February 11, 2020, 12:24:06 pm
Post by: Iduno on February 11, 2020, 12:34:49 pm
The WHO has renamed the virus COVID-19, which sounds a bit cooler. They listed a vaccine being publicly available in 18 months, which isn't really what I wanted to hear, but is probably realistic.
Do we know yet which 19 ravens are to blame?
Post by: Ulfarr on February 11, 2020, 12:47:10 pm
CSG: "It's SARS II, bitch!"
WHO: "...Motherfucker..."
Post by: Craftsdwarf boi on February 11, 2020, 09:49:06 pm
I heard the Chinese military (mostly army medics) participating in treating the virus.
Post by: delphonso on February 11, 2020, 09:57:30 pm
Has the outbreak reached pandemic levels?
I heard the Chinese military (mostly army medics) participating in treating the virus.
Depends on your definition of pandemic. Technically, yes - as every province of China has at least 1 case of the virus at this point.
Basically every government organization is focused on the virus in some way right now. Military are maintaining the quarantine and travel restrictions, as far as I know. I ran into a couple checks going to the airport and then home, there were a couple military guys there (which is usual - there are some checkpoints on highways for vehicle registration stuff) and a doctor (don't know if she was military or not). They just checked our temperatures and sent us on our way.
Post by: Trekkin on February 12, 2020, 06:12:11 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 12, 2020, 07:51:58 pm
As a result: 14,840 new cases, 242 deaths today in Hubei
Yesterday was 1,638 cases, 94 deaths
Post by: delphonso on February 12, 2020, 08:23:50 pm
Nobody's mentioned Vir Bio's mAbs to the spike protein yet, I see.
Hey boss, a link (https://investors.vir.bio/news-releases/news-release-details/vir-biotechnology-identifies-two-antibodies-bind-spike-protein) would have been appreciated.
This is a nice one, actually. I've never heard of Vir Bio, but I think looking at effective SARS responses (since SARS was also a coronavirus) is a reasonable approach. Here's hoping this turns out to be one of the cures.
China is now counting clinically diagnosed cases in its numbers now vs laboratory confirmed
As a result: 14,840 new cases, 242 deaths today in Hubei
Yesterday was 1,638 cases, 94 deaths
I read an article yesterday about how they were very reluctant to release these numbers in the face of wide-spread panic already. As I see it - it's more proof of being widely infectious, but additional proof of it being not exceptionally deadly. This really lowers the lethality numbers.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 13, 2020, 02:16:44 am
Post by: coalboat on February 13, 2020, 02:55:34 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 13, 2020, 03:08:11 am
Lung CT graph can be used to reliably identify the disease so far. One of the reasons that only lab result was recognized is that the local authority was able to downplay the situation by limiting the number of available test kits.As a rule of thumb, radiology imaging can give you a clue, but it does not establish firm diagnoses by itself (In medical pathology that is).
Going to the source paper...
https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/pdf/10.1148/radiol.2020200274
Quote
Patients with fever and/or cough and with conspicuous ground glass opacity lesions in the peripheral and posterior lungs...That's far from specific.
In fact they say as much in the paper
Quote
In conclusion, the most common patterns of 2019-nCoV pneumonia on thin-section CT images
are pure GGO, GGO with reticular and/or interlobular septal thickening, GGO with consolidation,
and consolidation, with prominent distribution in the posterior and peripheral part of the lungs.
Consolidation lesions could be served as a marker of disease progression or more severe disease.
Though the positive nucleic acid testing is the diagnostic golden standard, patients with fever and/or
cough and with GGO prominent lesions in the peripheral and posterior part of lungs on CT images,
combined with normal or decreased white blood cells and a history of epidemical exposure, should
be highly suspected of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia.
I kind of find it conceptually bothersome to use radiology in place of a firm lab diagnosis.
Post by: Ulfarr on February 13, 2020, 05:15:30 am
Post by: delphonso on February 13, 2020, 05:27:24 am
Post by: scriver on February 13, 2020, 06:06:59 am
Post by: delphonso on February 13, 2020, 06:39:39 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 13, 2020, 06:40:20 am
Like every visitor to my college dorm - they brought a case of Corona that no one asked for.https://youtu.be/mynHaZ92E7s
Post by: Iduno on February 13, 2020, 08:18:10 am
Nobody's mentioned Vir Bio's mAbs to the spike protein yet, I see.
I'm not sure more than half of those things are real words.
QuoteIn conclusion, the most common patterns of 2019-nCoV pneumonia on thin-section CT images
are pure GGO, GGO with reticular and/or interlobular septal thickening, GGO with consolidation,
and consolidation, with prominent distribution in the posterior and peripheral part of the lungs.
Consolidation lesions could be served as a marker of disease progression or more severe disease.
Though the positive nucleic acid testing is the diagnostic golden standard, patients with fever and/or
cough and with GGO prominent lesions in the peripheral and posterior part of lungs on CT images,
combined with normal or decreased white blood cells and a history of epidemical exposure, should
be highly suspected of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia.
I kind of find it conceptually bothersome to use radiology in place of a firm lab diagnosis.
I'm sure it's fine, as long as no other illness, genetic abnormality, or environmental conditions can cause or contribute to "lungs look funny."
Won't that change result in an increased amount of false positives?
False positives, and false negatives, probably. It's better than a guess, but you'd want to follow up with a more sure method, at which point you can just skip the less effective method of detection (unless it is faster by several days, which it might be).
Post by: TamerVirus on February 13, 2020, 08:42:10 am
3 other cases of unknown infection in 3 other prefectures
Japan has a really large elderly population, which does not bode well
They also have the Olympics to think about
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 13, 2020, 09:07:46 am
First death in Japan: 80 yr old woman. Unknown how she got infectedMy bet: wild sex during secret affair with Xi Jingping
Post by: TamerVirus on February 13, 2020, 09:13:47 am
Post by: Teneb on February 13, 2020, 09:21:03 am
China is now mailing an express Coronavirus sponsored by Tencent package to you as we speakHow lucky! I hear there's even a 0.01% chance of you getting a vintage SARS instead in the
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 13, 2020, 10:09:31 am
China is now mailing an express Coronavirus sponsored by Tencent package to you as we speakShit. I knew I shouldn't have signed up for those Epic freebies.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 14, 2020, 05:17:47 pm
Instead of only testing symptomatic with China travel history/contact with known cases it’s now just ‘flu-like symptoms’
I wonder if we’re about to see case numbers go up here in the states?
Then again the CDC’s been sending out defective test kits across the country.
Oops
Post by: coalboat on February 15, 2020, 06:43:05 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 15, 2020, 07:48:20 am
I thought it's conspiracy just a few days ago.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: coalboat on February 15, 2020, 10:35:21 am
Post by: scriver on February 15, 2020, 10:43:53 am
Post by: coalboat on February 15, 2020, 11:00:59 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 15, 2020, 11:02:34 am
Does that mean that CCP is monitoring your posts and this thread?
你好!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 15, 2020, 11:16:17 am
Ministry of Science and Technology( of China) just announced that "... should strengthen the control and management of bio-lab, especially virological material..." Suspicious. The leaked bio-weapon theory has a remote possibility of being true despite that I thought it's conspiracy just a few days ago."Except for coalboat, who should by all means lick all infectious biological samples".
:facepalm:
Post by: coalboat on February 15, 2020, 11:31:59 am
Imgur blocked in China? Go figure.老铁666
Does that mean that CCP is monitoring your posts and this thread?
你好!
Post by: coalboat on February 15, 2020, 11:36:03 am
lick all infectious biological samples".
:facepalm:
unsafe bushmeat cooking advice
Post by: Reelya on February 15, 2020, 12:07:12 pm
First, no children have died. Second, it disproportionately kills Chinese men rather than women. About 50% of Chinese men are regular smokers vs only about 2.5% of Chinese women. This also suggests that linear extrapolations from what's happening in China to how the virus would affect non-Chinese nations should be considered with a grain of salt. Chinese men consume a disproportionate amount of the world's cigarettes. In China, men who've gotten the disease are about 4 times as likely to die as a woman. The baseline risk would be about 1% fatality, but also keep in mind that people with compromised lung health are also more likely to pick up the infection in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-dangerous-smokers/
Also:
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1
Quote
In current severe global emergency situation of 2019-nCov outbreak, it is imperative to identify vulnerable and susceptible groups for effective protection and care. Recently, studies found that 2019-nCov and SARS-nCov share the same receptor, ACE2. In this study, we analyzed four large-scale datasets of normal lung tissue to investigate the disparities related to race, age, gender and smoking status in ACE2 gene expression. No significant disparities in ACE2 gene expression were found between racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), age groups (>60 vs <60) or gender groups (male vs female). However, we observed significantly higher ACE2 gene expression in smoker samples compared to non-smoker samples. This indicates the smokers may be more susceptible to 2019-nCov and thus smoking history should be considered in identifying susceptible population and standardizing treatment regimen.
Smoking causes significantly higher gene expression of a receptor that's targeted by coronaviruses, including the latest one and including SARS. So the question of "Why China?" for these types of viruses could be partly because these types of viruses target a receptor that you get more of if you're a heavy smoker. I'm willing to bet the few men in their 30s who have died of this also happened to be heavy smokers.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 15, 2020, 12:44:35 pm
Merely living and breathing there would probably be smoking a couple cigarettes per day
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 15, 2020, 12:48:19 pm
Post by: scriver on February 15, 2020, 05:08:50 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 15, 2020, 07:46:19 pm
Smoking causes significantly higher gene expression of a receptor that's targeted by coronaviruses, including the latest one and including SARS. So the question of "Why China?" for these types of viruses could be partly because these types of viruses target a receptor that you get more of if you're a heavy smoker. I'm willing to bet the few men in their 30s who have died of this also happened to be heavy smokers.
Hmm. Does this mean it's also more likely to be caught by smokers?
This also makes some sense with the medical staff in Wuhan's high infection rate. Medical work is a stressful job and smoking takes the edge off...
Post by: Trekkin on February 15, 2020, 10:29:24 pm
Hmm. Does this mean it's also more likely to be caught by smokers?
We don't yet have the data on asymptomatic infections to say that with any certainty, I'm afraid. It's certainly plausible, but it would be a disservice to tout anything as protective right now.
Post by: Stench Guzman on February 15, 2020, 10:47:56 pm
Post by: Reelya on February 16, 2020, 12:06:42 am
Hmm. Does this mean it's also more likely to be caught by smokers?
We don't yet have the data on asymptomatic infections to say that with any certainty, I'm afraid. It's certainly plausible, but it would be a disservice to tout anything as protective right now.
They are already recommending to quit smoking though. The strategy is delay and containment, so the argument is that if they delay the spread to North America for 2-3 months and you quit smoking now, then by the time the virus is loose in the USA then you should have much lower chance of mortality. Whichever way it plays out "quit smoking now" will reduce your mortality rate, whether that's from the coronavirus, from influenza or just from the smoking itself. Eve if it's not relevant, if the fear of coronavirus can be used to give some smokers a kick up the backside to quit then lives have been saved, perhaps more lives than the virus would have taken.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 16, 2020, 01:05:07 am
Post by: Trekkin on February 16, 2020, 01:26:08 am
They are already recommending to quit smoking though. The strategy is delay and containment, so the argument is that if they delay the spread to North America for 2-3 months and you quit smoking now, then by the time the virus is loose in the USA then you should have much lower chance of mortality.
And then people hear this and figure they can ignore quarantines and public health instructions because their second cousin's roommate's drug dealer works down the street from a doctor's office and he said it mostly only kills smokers. "Much lower chance of mortality" is exactly the kind of hedge you don't want, because people will assume it means whatever they want it to mean. And then, when they get sick anyway, they'll ignore medical experts the next time around and listen to whatever Internet armchair expert tells them to chug bleach and pray to crystals. Public resistance gets much worse if you try to use medical emergencies as a vector for social engineering, too.
Post by: Stench Guzman on February 16, 2020, 09:54:33 am
Post by: coalboat on February 16, 2020, 11:09:00 am
Post by: Stench Guzman on February 16, 2020, 11:57:47 am
Post by: coalboat on February 16, 2020, 12:51:28 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 16, 2020, 01:09:39 pm
Post by: coalboat on February 16, 2020, 01:24:35 pm
Post by: Frumple on February 16, 2020, 06:24:33 pm
Post by: Iduno on February 17, 2020, 02:10:38 pm
Medical work is a stressful job and smoking takes the edge off...
And stress is known to be good for your health to start with. /s
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 17, 2020, 02:50:41 pm
I'm not convinced that it makes sense.Smoking causes significantly higher gene expression of a receptor that's targeted by coronaviruses, including the latest one and including SARS. So the question of "Why China?" for these types of viruses could be partly because these types of viruses target a receptor that you get more of if you're a heavy smoker. I'm willing to bet the few men in their 30s who have died of this also happened to be heavy smokers.
Hmm. Does this mean it's also more likely to be caught by smokers?
This also makes some sense with the medical staff in Wuhan's high infection rate. Medical work is a stressful job and smoking takes the edge off...
Post by: TamerVirus on February 17, 2020, 03:39:05 pm
...Its called Fapilavir...
Reality is one big joke, isn't it
Post by: Frumple on February 17, 2020, 07:08:43 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 17, 2020, 07:15:44 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 17, 2020, 07:50:00 pm
China approved of an anti-viral drug to combat Sars 2.I'm even less worried now because it turns out I WAS IMMUNE ALL ALONG!
...Its called Fapilavir...
Reality is one big joke, isn't it
Post by: Egan_BW on February 17, 2020, 07:51:16 pm
Fapmaster Supreme
Post by: coalboat on February 17, 2020, 11:09:11 pm
I'm curious to see the population increase 9 months from now...
Probably bad timing to get pregnant now IMO. Pregnant people need to go to hospital regularly to check their health status which exposes them to potential virus carriers.
Post by: Pancakes on February 18, 2020, 12:49:36 am
In this time of pestilence we need a hero. We need a...
Fapmaster Supreme
I know how we can summon our hero! Quickly, everyone start typing at ludicrous speed!
Post by: TamerVirus on February 18, 2020, 08:48:07 am
Current tally: 542 infected, 20 in serious condition
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 18, 2020, 08:51:15 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 18, 2020, 08:52:16 am
Meanwhile, in China: Lake Wuhan? That’s always been there...
Post by: Bumber on February 18, 2020, 01:00:26 pm
Post by: coalboat on February 18, 2020, 10:53:21 pm
A patient in Japan commuted by train from Chiba to Tokyo for two days after he had developed fever. If it is like SARS, hopefully the virus will die off as temperature rises before the Olympics in summer.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 18, 2020, 11:38:19 pm
Japan and Singapore are the countries to watch in the coming weeks to see how they handle mitigation/containment.
A relative of mine was actually gonna go to Japan for the marathon.
The government put the kibosh on that...
Post by: coalboat on February 19, 2020, 12:38:16 am
Post by: Iduno on February 19, 2020, 02:47:50 pm
You maybe don't want to click that at work, but I'm assuming you're not posting where people can see what you're doing.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 19, 2020, 04:59:19 pm
Apparently:
-They never travelled abroad
-They never even left the province of Qom
HUH???
Post by: Teneb on February 19, 2020, 05:30:24 pm
Two Iranian nationals have died of Coronavirus (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51563039)Looks like someone was carrying it and went through said province.
Apparently:
-They never travelled abroad
-They never even left the province of Qom
HUH???
Post by: delphonso on February 19, 2020, 07:05:42 pm
Singapore is having a few new cases everyday. They document the cases very well, though, tracing the source of virus on every one. It seems to be in control so far.
They're also going back to work and resuming life as normal. We'll see if anything comes from that.
People here are starting to be more active and spend more time out of the house. The panic seems to be settling down.
Post by: coalboat on February 20, 2020, 12:54:06 am
Post by: delphonso on February 20, 2020, 03:54:35 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 20, 2020, 04:06:03 am
Post by: coalboat on February 20, 2020, 04:13:25 am
generally acknowledge its existence, the virus had already been circulating around for more than a month.
Post by: delphonso on February 20, 2020, 04:16:43 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 20, 2020, 07:31:53 am
It seems like that Church was more like a cult...
The East Asian sphere seems to be more vigorous in testing
Meanwhile in the US, in the past 3 days the CDC only finished testing 12 cases.
Can’t have Coronavirus if you don’t test for it
Post by: coalboat on February 20, 2020, 09:39:40 am
more like a cult...
Yes that sect is forbidden by law in China. Don't know its legality in Korea though.
Post by: scourge728 on February 20, 2020, 09:52:13 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 20, 2020, 10:00:24 am
Generally, I'm against forbidding religions with law, but I feel in the case they are intentionally spreading plagues I can make an exceptionIsn't that a bit jumping to conclusions? So far all we have here is that they had a mass event, like most religions do, and a disease spread
Post by: delphonso on February 20, 2020, 10:00:42 am
Seems it wasn't - directly - related to church activities, though. It wasn't like a snake-handling thing or that dude who fed his parishoners rat poison and they all died (surprise.) Seems she just...ignored any advice to self quarantine and infected 160 people.
Edit: Some tourist attractions are reopening in my province as of tomorrow. We're one of the least effected, but it's nice to see some cooling down.
Post by: Reelya on February 20, 2020, 10:03:53 am
www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?action=post;msg=8093984;topic=175464.240
Quote
Shincheonji followers are taught to believe that Lee, the founder, is the second coming or the returned Jesus Christ. Shincheonji claims that the Bible is written in metaphors and only its founder Lee could interpret and understand
...
"Their leader Lee Man-Hee claims to have access to secret knowledge of scriptures which other church pastors do not know. Moreover, he claims that one can truly know God only by following and listening to the teachings of Shincheonji. Once they are into this group, they spend most of their time inviting people to join Shincheonji group and spend very less time with their families, friends and churches and neglect and quit their studies or work."
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 20, 2020, 11:08:09 am
This religion (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shincheonji_Church_of_Jesus_the_Temple_of_the_Tabernacle_of_the_Testimony) has too long of a name to NOT be a cult...
Seems it wasn't - directly - related to church activities, though. It wasn't like a snake-handling thing or that dude who fed his parishoners rat poison and they all died (surprise.) Seems she just...ignored any advice to self quarantine and infected 160 people.
Edit: Some tourist attractions are reopening in my province as of tomorrow. We're one of the least effected, but it's nice to see some cooling down.
I´m not saying it´s not a cult (though TBH I think the line between cult and mainstream religion is thin at best, and usually related more to popularity and how seriously the average believer follows the tenets). I´m saying the former guy said that they should be outlawed for delliberatedly spreading disease, and I don´t think there is any serious mention of them doing that.
Post by: scourge728 on February 20, 2020, 01:13:46 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 20, 2020, 01:21:12 pm
Post by: Bumber on February 20, 2020, 09:34:35 pm
Post by: coalboat on February 20, 2020, 09:52:46 pm
Two Iranian nationals have died of Coronavirus (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51563039)
Several more infected cases are confirmed in Iran. Qom has shutted down schools and universities.
Considering that Iran had suspended flight from China as early as Feb 1st, and the relatively low traffic between China and Iran, why Iran suddenly has these new cases is confusing.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 20, 2020, 10:23:17 pm
Seems like Iran has got a big problem on its hands now. Apparently they got a big election going on today as well.
South Korea’s cases have jumped rapidly to 156. Thanks, cultists.
Saw this in the news feeds:
207 cases reported in prison in Shangdong province!
10 minutes later
Head of Shangdong Province Justice Department has been sacked
Post by: delphonso on February 20, 2020, 10:29:01 pm
Several more infected cases are confirmed in Iran. Qom has shutted down schools and universities.
Considering that Iran had suspended flight from China as early as Feb 1st, and the relatively low traffic between China and Iran, why Iran suddenly has these new cases is confusing.
I wonder if it's MERS - another coronavirus - misdiagnosed as the hip and new Novel Corona.
Post by: Trekkin on February 20, 2020, 10:38:31 pm
I wonder if it's MERS - another coronavirus - misdiagnosed as the hip and new Novel Corona.
Unlikely if they're using the actual tests. They're screened to prevent false positives from closely related viruses.
Post by: coalboat on February 20, 2020, 11:06:18 pm
207 cases reported in prison in Shangdong province!
I saw this too. Even prison is not safe!
Post by: scriver on February 21, 2020, 01:01:57 am
Post by: Iduno on February 21, 2020, 09:10:12 am
Two Iranian nationals have died of Coronavirus (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51563039)
Several more infected cases are confirmed in Iran. Qom has shutted down schools and universities.
Considering that Iran had suspended flight from China as early as Feb 1st, and the relatively low traffic between China and Iran, why Iran suddenly has these new cases is confusing.
It's possible they allow travel to and from places that allow travel to and from China, or other places where sick people are currently. Unless you shut it all down, you're going to get the flu.
Post by: monkey on February 21, 2020, 03:02:03 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on February 21, 2020, 11:20:50 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak#/media/File:COVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak#/media/File:COVID-19-outbreak-timeline.gif)
In other news Italy suddenly jumped overnight to 20 reported cases.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 22, 2020, 05:10:18 am
For a start, in Spain there have been only two cases, both of them in the islands.
Post by: feelotraveller on February 22, 2020, 05:51:34 am
Post by: Reelya on February 22, 2020, 06:30:43 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 22, 2020, 07:44:53 am
Post by: scriver on February 22, 2020, 07:56:19 am
Edit: gotta love all the tiny island countries and their perfectly round representation bubble, though. Especially in the southern Caribbean
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 22, 2020, 08:10:16 am
I agree. The one in Sweden makes it look like the case is in Svea, when in reality it is in Geatia, which is a very important distinction because Geats are much better than Sveas and thus it's much worse if something happens to them.Well of course. Fuck the Sveas.
Edit: gotta love all the tiny island countries and their perfectly round representation bubble, though. Especially in the southern Caribbean
Post by: TamerVirus on February 22, 2020, 08:33:53 am
Time to bust out those vintage plague masks
Post by: Teneb on February 22, 2020, 09:01:45 am
I agree. The one in Sweden makes it look like the case is in Svea, when in reality it is in Geatia, which is a very important distinction because Geats are much better than Sveas and thus it's much worse if something happens to them.Likewise, it looks like there's cases in French Guyana... when it's actually in France but since FG is a
Edit: gotta love all the tiny island countries and their perfectly round representation bubble, though. Especially in the southern Caribbean
Post by: martinuzz on February 22, 2020, 03:48:01 pm
Authorities from the Chinese province of Hubei report that a man that was tested positive for the virus only began to show signs of illness 27 (!!) days after contracting the virus.
He had visited his sister, who is also infected, in Shennongjia on january 24th.
On the 20th of february he developed a fever.
If this report turns out to be accurate, it will make it much harder to stop the spread of the virus.
Meanwhile in Italy, confirmed cases of infections went up from 16 to 59 within a day.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 22, 2020, 06:21:46 pm
Now we’ll get to see how a democracy implements large scale quarantine vs an authoritarian state
But doesn’t Italy also have seasonal flu? Shouldn’t they focus on that instead? 8)
Post by: Frumple on February 22, 2020, 06:36:12 pm
The incubation period for the virus could be much longer than 14 days.Last I noticed a extreme edge incubation period of 28-30 days was confirmed like last week or so. Most incidences seem to kick off much sooner than that, though. Least as near as I could parse a 3+ week period was possible, but only a pretty small fraction (memory wants to say <=2%, but could be misremembering) of the infections actually managed it, or something along those lines. Which means that bit isn't as bad as it could be/sounds.
Authorities from the Chinese province of Hubei report that a man that was tested positive for the virus only began to show signs of illness 27 (!!) days after contracting the virus.
He had visited his sister, who is also infected, in Shennongjia on january 24th.
On the 20th of february he developed a fever.
If this report turns out to be accurate, it will make it much harder to stop the spread of the virus.
Meanwhile in Italy, confirmed cases of infections went up from 16 to 59 within a day.
That said, it doesn't need 28 days to be a bit of a nightmare to contain. It's aerosolized and capable of largely asymptomatic spread, as well as not being super deadly or fast acting (also mostly looking like the flu symptoms wise, in the middle of flu season). Even without the lol 3-4 weeks thing it's something that gives a good go at just laughing at containment efforts.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 22, 2020, 06:53:14 pm
But doesn’t Italy also have seasonal flu? Shouldn’t they focus on that instead? 8)They do, but why 'instead'? Flu is endemic worldwide and will keep killing. In Italy, like in most developed countries, people have access to the seasonal flu vaccine. So they're doing all they can to address that problem. Just like they're doing all they can to address this one, but in this case stopping the spread is still on the table.
The point is not that the existence of flu means the healthcare services should ignore covid-19. The point is that the two are so out of proportion in the number of fatalities, that getting worked up because of covid-19 when year after year you don't care about the flu despite near-identical mode of infection, similar vulnerable populations and fatality rate, is hysteria.
So when I'm telling you 'wake me up when the death toll reaches seasonal flu levels' I'm not calling for cessation of mitigating actions, nor disbelieving that any government will take action as advised by the relevant healthcare organisations. I'm asking you to stop panicking and get some perspective.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 22, 2020, 08:27:58 pm
I wonder if my country gets a lot of stuff from China.
Who can forget the last time when entire cities we’re placed under lockdown enforced by law?
I sure remember seeing Chinese authorities welding peoples into their apartments last flu season.
Perspective.
Oh man flu season was pretty bad this year, I hear.
I wonder how our healthcare system can handle the flu and a new disease that’s easily as spread as the flu, but is about 20x more more deadly, and where one in five require icu attention to breathe?
Post by: TamerVirus on February 22, 2020, 08:30:29 pm
Post by: Trekkin on February 22, 2020, 08:41:24 pm
Who can forget the last time when entire cities we’re placed under lockdown enforced by law?
I sure remember seeing Chinese authorities welding peoples into their apartments last flu season.
If it were another country, this might be cause for greater concern, but China has a vested political interest in overreacting to this sort of thing. Dropping the hammer like this with an unambiguously good aim in mind lets them justify having the capacity to do so the rest of the time, and the PRC would very much like observers both foreign and domestic to look at the pop-up hospitals and so forth and decide that the rest of their totalitarian bullshit is a necessary sacrifice for the greater good.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 22, 2020, 08:55:35 pm
Oh wow it’s busy season! Sure is fun working there 6 days a week.
Oh man, wouldn’t it suck if my family livelihood depended on the economic heath of said Chinatown.
A lot of the staff sure have stocked on face masks
Post by: coalboat on February 23, 2020, 12:51:41 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 23, 2020, 02:34:46 am
Maybe it’s because I live in large coastal metropolis and work in the densely populated Chinatown.So with one voice you're overreacting to the virus and with another you're concerned about the economic repercussions of other people overreacting to the virus?
Oh wow it’s busy season! Sure is fun working there 6 days a week.
Oh man, wouldn’t it suck if my family livelihood depended on the economic heath of said Chinatown.
A lot of the staff sure have stocked on face masks
Post by: delphonso on February 23, 2020, 03:55:33 am
I think keffiyeh can work in a pinch when there's no face mask.
Since Tamer is from the US, wearing a keffiyeh might be more dangerous than the virus...
Post by: TamerVirus on February 23, 2020, 09:52:38 am
So with one voice you're overreacting to the virus and with another you're concerned about the economic repercussions of other people overreacting to the virus?Perspective
Or rather, your perspective.
I get it now.
Further discussion of this matter with you is pointless.
I wish you and your loved ones good health this season
Post by: scriver on February 23, 2020, 10:06:36 am
Post by: TamerVirus on February 23, 2020, 10:33:13 am
I really hope I’m wrong
Post by: Reelya on February 23, 2020, 10:43:23 am
So both are things to worry about, but for different reasons. Flu because it's endemic, so you're more likely to get it, and Covid-19 because it's more deadly, and it's highly contagious, so if that spreads out of control then we've got a serious problem on our hands. The flu in America can affect up to 50 million people per year, and at that rate, you get about 50 thousand deaths. Coronavirus could achieve that many deaths at 1.5 million infections.
However, there's a lot we don't know yet. Some believe the rate of infection of China has been seriously under-reported, meaning the fatality rate may be highly inflated. Also, these viruses really don't like warm weather and that's part of what did in SARS and MERS the first time.
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/warm-weather-may-have-helped-suppress-coronavirus
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 23, 2020, 10:50:28 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 23, 2020, 10:53:13 am
The point here I think is worth mentioning. The flu has a death rate around 0.1%, while this virus is currently around 2.9% from the last estimate I saw.The latter is CFR, not IFR, though. I.e. taking into account confirmed cases only. Infection Fatality Ratio is about 0.3%-1% according to this:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2
I see similar estimates in other sources.
Post by: Reelya on February 23, 2020, 10:53:59 am
Amid severe cases (aka: those requiring hospitalization) influenza's death rate is closer to 20%
We need to go off raw infection rate however. If the odds of dying from infection are 0.1% and the odds of dying after hospitalization are 20% then that also means only 1 in 200 people get sick enough to require hospitalization.
The point here I think is worth mentioning. The flu has a death rate around 0.1%, while this virus is currently around 2.9% from the last estimate I saw.The latter is CFR, not IFR, though. I.e. taking into account confirmed cases only. Infection Fatality Ratio is about 0.3%-1% according to this:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=3346b04f_2
I see similar estimates in other sources.
If that's the case then it's about the same as the flu. The main criteria then would be how quickly it spreads. You got that cruise ship with 634 people who got infected out of ... 4000? That would be pretty unlikely that the flu would spread that quickly among passengers on a ship.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 23, 2020, 11:17:39 am
If that's the case then it's about the same as the flu. The main criteria then would be how quickly it spreads. You got that cruise ship with 634 people who got infected out of ... 4000? That would be pretty unlikely that the flu would spread that quickly among passengers on a ship.The current R0 estimates are higher than for the flu, but not that much. Let's not forget that being stuck on a cruise ship is a rather specific environment. Common cold spreads in kindergartens at a much higher rate than it does in the general population, too.
But yeah, we'll see. It might very well end up infecting more people than the flu - or not. Time will tell. But unlike some self-professed lunatics, I won't lose sleep over it.
Post by: Trekkin on February 23, 2020, 11:37:07 am
If that's the case then it's about the same as the flu. The main criteria then would be how quickly it spreads. You got that cruise ship with 634 people who got infected out of ... 4000? That would be pretty unlikely that the flu would spread that quickly among passengers on a ship.The current R0 estimates are higher than for the flu, but not that much. Let's not forget that being stuck on a cruise ship is a rather specific environment. Common cold spreads in kindergartens at a much higher rate than it does in the general population, too.
But yeah, we'll see. It might very well end up infecting more people than the flu - or not. Time will tell. But unlike some self-professed lunatics, I won't lose sleep over it.
Latest estimates are 2.2, I think, relative to 1.3 for flu -- and something like 15 for measles, to give a sense of scale.
Incidentally, we should also bear in mind that cures and vaccines are not far off, as both are currently being optimized. It would almost be funny if people weren't suffering: in just over a century, we've gone from viruses being this mysterious invisible killer to me not being able to go twelve hours without someone showing me a model of spike protein or some chunk of capsid and asking me to design something to stop it -- and I'm not wasting iron on it, because other efforts are already farther along.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 23, 2020, 11:49:34 am
and I'm not wasting iron on itThis is completely off-topic, but humour a foreigner. What does this mean? Is it some obscure idiom my google-fu can't find, or are people somehow using iron in doing this type of stuff (and I presume you mean the element, not the appliance).
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 23, 2020, 11:51:52 am
imam also curious on thisand I'm not wasting iron on itThis is completely off-topic, but humour a foreigner. What does this mean? Is it some obscure idiom my google-fu can't find, or are people somehow using iron in doing this type of stuff (and I presume you mean the element, not the appliance).
Post by: Trekkin on February 23, 2020, 12:16:52 pm
and I'm not wasting iron on itThis is completely off-topic, but humour a foreigner. What does this mean? Is it some obscure idiom my google-fu can't find, or are people somehow using iron in doing this type of stuff (and I presume you mean the element, not the appliance).
Sorry; I talk to computationalists so often that I forget how much jargon we use.
"Iron" is a hazy way for bioinformaticists and other big data scientists (including computational biologists, like me) to refer to computing resources in a general way. We often have several ways to solve any given problem that use completely different ratios of system resources, so specific references to CPU-hours and so forth aren't always informative. At some point we just started to refer to how much iron will be required to do a thing as a way to compare computational expense across systems.
Post by: scriver on February 23, 2020, 12:17:50 pm
Also, these viruses really don't like warm weather and that's part of what did in SARS and MERS the first time.
https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/warm-weather-may-have-helped-suppress-coronavirus
Global warming to the rescue!
Post by: Teneb on February 23, 2020, 02:03:38 pm
And thus South America continues to prove that it is superior to North America because we have 0 cases here so far.
Post by: scriver on February 23, 2020, 03:00:03 pm
MAPS DON'T LIE
Post by: Teneb on February 23, 2020, 05:11:38 pm
FRENCH GUYANA THOUGHThat's just cases in France. Unless, of course, you count France as a South-American country, in which case fair enough.
MAPS DON'T LIE
Post by: feelotraveller on February 23, 2020, 11:43:50 pm
MAPS DON'T LIE
Of course maps lie, it is their nature. If a map didn't lie it would be co-extensive with and indistiguishible from the territory itself, and hence useless as a map. (Mind you this leaves open criticism of just 'how' a given map lies.)
More map lies from wikipedia can be seen here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_by_country_and_territory) - a couple of images which lie in different ways. Right now I'm guessing Brazil being blue (and having blue dots) is a lie that will be corrected shortly...
Post by: TamerVirus on February 24, 2020, 08:13:34 am
We don’t use that word anymore (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-says-no-longer-uses-pandemic-category-but-virus-still-emergency-idUSKCN20I0N8)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 24, 2020, 08:35:37 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Reelya on February 24, 2020, 08:45:56 am
Post by: Bumber on February 24, 2020, 09:06:53 am
Disinformation hinders progress in Coronavirus
Wait, the cure for the Coronavirus is fake news? :P
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 24, 2020, 09:10:14 am
... curry, talking frogs and sage-like newborn babies.I find it indicative of your pro-baby bias that you painted the frogs as merely talking, as opposed to the newborns' sagacity, despite voicing the exact same message as the babies. I always knew you for a frogophobe.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 24, 2020, 09:12:07 am
Disinformation hinders progress in Coronavirus
Wait, the cure for the Coronavirus is fake news? :P
Ever since Viruses learned democracy, it's been a neverending arms race of partisanship and mudslinging that has really polarized the microscopic world.
Post by: Sanctume on February 24, 2020, 10:14:08 am
... I always knew you for a frogophobe.
Fear of frogs and toads is both a specific phobia, known simply as frog phobia or ranidaphobia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear_of_frogs)(from ranidae, the most widespread family of frogs), and a superstition common to the folkways of many cultures. Psychiatric speciality literature uses the simple term "fear of frogs" rather than any specialized term.
Post by: coalboat on February 24, 2020, 12:50:01 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 24, 2020, 01:09:50 pm
forsythiaSomebody's been watching Contagion.
Post by: coalboat on February 24, 2020, 01:20:30 pm
Post by: scriver on February 24, 2020, 01:44:00 pm
The Reuters journalist didn't catch the rumour that honeysuckle-and-forsythia potion can cure the disease. This rumour has been among the most prevalent ones.
Maybe it's not disinformation?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 24, 2020, 02:56:52 pm
I heard that if you breathe inThe Reuters journalist didn't catch the rumour that honeysuckle-and-forsythia potion can cure the disease. This rumour has been among the most prevalent ones.
Maybe it's not disinformation?
Edit: FAKE NEWS. It´s not your own farts. It has to be the farts of someone who successfully recovered from the disease. It´s because of the colonic microbiota.
Post by: Frumple on February 24, 2020, 06:24:29 pm
Post by: Iduno on February 24, 2020, 06:47:55 pm
I guarantee you you'd get someone to pay you for that if you tried to shill it. Maybe write a book, it might do well among alternative medicine circles.
I'm lactose intolerant, and still eat dairy. I uh...also recovered from the whatever, so I can cure it if people pay me. You gotta pay double if you're too into it, though.
Post by: feelotraveller on February 25, 2020, 01:55:35 am
I heard that if you breathe inyour own fartsyou develop immunity, but only while you keep smelling the fart.
If I read enough shitposts will that do it?
Post by: delphonso on February 25, 2020, 02:02:28 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 25, 2020, 03:06:47 am
Post by: coalboat on February 25, 2020, 06:04:47 am
Post by: Magistrum on February 25, 2020, 07:36:04 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 25, 2020, 08:33:44 am
Post by: Teneb on February 25, 2020, 08:23:56 pm
First test was a positive, but another will be done to be sure. Meanwhile, he's isolated in his home, since the symptoms are quite mild at the moment.
Post by: coalboat on February 25, 2020, 09:16:26 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 25, 2020, 09:52:19 pm
Post by: Frumple on February 26, 2020, 07:44:44 pm
Also appears there's little to no current fiscal support for infected or folks in need of quarantine, so hey. I guess capitalism's gift for the new decade is Spanish flu Mk. 2, ha ha ha. Also hey the CDC recently got significantly defunded and our general pandemic preparedness situation is shit so I guess we get to hope the fatality et al rate on this thing really is wildly overstated :-\
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 26, 2020, 07:54:54 pm
Post by: Frumple on February 26, 2020, 07:58:39 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 26, 2020, 08:09:02 pm
Looks like we got our first confirmed case in the US that didn't travel or come in contact with any known carriers. Someone like that seems to have tested positive in cali.CDC must have loosened testing criteria, because they would have never found this fella otherwise cuz he didn’t step foot in Wuhan
Post by: Frumple on February 26, 2020, 08:12:51 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 26, 2020, 08:13:26 pm
You get three guesses, and any of them that's anything except "The Republican Party" don't count.yes, but which one proposed it, and which ones supported it?
Post by: Zangi on February 26, 2020, 08:25:47 pm
Reckon a lot of people getting sick internationally have never stepped foot in Wuhan by now.Looks like we got our first confirmed case in the US that didn't travel or come in contact with any known carriers. Someone like that seems to have tested positive in cali.CDC must have loosened testing criteria, because they would have never found this fella otherwise cuz he didn’t step foot in Wuhan
Iran and Italy seems to have started their own parties.
Since Iran isn't really doing a quarantine, you can bet the party bus is doing its tour around the middle east, at the very least.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 26, 2020, 08:36:12 pm
Did you intend on doing a rhyme at the present time?Reckon a lot of people getting sick internationally have never stepped foot in Wuhan by now.Looks like we got our first confirmed case in the US that didn't travel or come in contact with any known carriers. Someone like that seems to have tested positive in cali.CDC must have loosened testing criteria, because they would have never found this fella otherwise cuz he didn’t step foot in Wuhan
Iran and Italy seems to have started their own parties.
Since Iran isn't really doing a quarantine, you can bet the party bus is doing its tour around the middle east, at the very least.
Post by: coalboat on February 26, 2020, 08:43:49 pm
The night before Wuhan was locked down many local people fled the city (still a minority compared to the whole local population), and some of them went to Shanghai and then to US by plane. The trafffic from Wuhan to US is definitely several times larger than either to Italy or to Iran.
Post by: Teneb on February 26, 2020, 08:56:52 pm
It's actually quite surprising that US has so few infected by now.I would not be suprised if there are way more infected in the US, but they can't get tested because it costs money.
The night before Wuhan was locked down many local people fled the city (still a minority compared to the whole local population), and some of them went to Shanghai and then to US by plane. The trafffic from Wuhan to US is definitely several times larger than either to Italy or to Iran.
Post by: Zangi on February 26, 2020, 09:02:22 pm
Tis the season for flu. Such a wonderful time.It's actually quite surprising that US has so few infected by now.I would not be suprised if there are way more infected in the US, but they can't get tested because it costs money.
The night before Wuhan was locked down many local people fled the city (still a minority compared to the whole local population), and some of them went to Shanghai and then to US by plane. The trafffic from Wuhan to US is definitely several times larger than either to Italy or to Iran.
Sick people would just stay home for a few days(or still go to work.) Maybe see a doctor later if it persists after those few day. (At least that is how my family and I operate in the US.)
And no, there were no intentions of any rhyming on my part.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 26, 2020, 09:04:15 pm
The CDC only accepts tests if the patient has Wuhan travel history or close contact with known cases
Only like three other states have independent testing capability. Which is why we see the Cali case today
Symptomatic people with history from Italy and Iran are not being tested elsewhere.
Post by: coalboat on February 26, 2020, 09:08:30 pm
edit:
Quite a few deaths in Wuhan were actually caused by the lateral damage of the quarantine. A hasty quarantine without good management can kill people.
Post by: delphonso on February 26, 2020, 09:28:33 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 26, 2020, 11:59:33 pm
You get three guesses, and any of them that's anything except "The Republican Party" don't count.yes, but which one proposed it, and which ones supported it?
Look at how trump is as concerned about CV as he is about the rest of his personal health. In over words, he's going to barely fund aid for it and meanwhile stick his head in the sand and hope the plague passes uneventfully.
Meanwhile tons of americans won't be able to afford help, much less PTO to even quarantine themselves.
Post by: Bumber on February 27, 2020, 04:54:29 am
Also hey the CDC recently got significantly defunded
[Citation Needed]
I haven't heard anything about Congress actually approving that.
Post by: Reelya on February 27, 2020, 07:13:22 am
EDIT: Trump's also calling concern about the virus left-wing fake news.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232652371832004608
Quote
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & @CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape!
Also hey the CDC recently got significantly defunded
[Citation Needed]
I haven't heard anything about Congress actually approving that.
Googled around:
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/trump-cuts-programs-responsible-for-fighting-coronavirus-2020-2
Quote
In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.
Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:
Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.
Eliminating the US government’s $US30 million Complex Crises Fund.
Reducing national health spending by $US15 billion.
Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development.
If you want more, do a time-ranged Google search for "trump defunded CDC" between 2016 - 2019.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/24/15684750/cdc-reaction-trump-public-health-cuts
Quote
The president’s latest budget request, which he sent to Congress on Tuesday, would excise $1.2 billion from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s nearly one-fifth of the total budget for the nation’s public health authority, part of a series of non-defense cuts that are meant to balance hikes in military spending.
Later articles show that the actual cut was $1.4 billion out of the $7 billion dollar budget.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 27, 2020, 07:33:11 am
Post by: Reelya on February 27, 2020, 07:37:20 am
Why is Trump against protection from global diseases?
You're making a categorical mistake here. You're imagining yourself in his place and trying to understand his decision making process. You have to understand this is guy who drops missiles on people's heads, killing both the intended target and unintended people, and then laughs about it.
He doesn't actually care if normal people die, as long as he and his are safe in their little walled fortress. These guys will slash public hospital funding so they can give bigger private hospital contracts to their rich cronies, and they fully well know thousands of people will die in agony because of it. How could they not know? They don't care. You're just poor peons to them, they only care about power and wealth. If some puny people have to suffer, it's no loss. Poor people aren't important, we're better off without them. That's how these people think.
You can't get inside the head of a psychopath or sociopath. A psycho will stab you merely because he enjoys stabbing. "why did you stab me?" isn't the right question. "Why wouldn't I stab you?" thinks the psycho. He finds it amusing to stab you and doesn't care about you. There are a lot of people like this in high level jobs, since people who have a conscience are less likely to choose those career paths.
Post by: delphonso on February 27, 2020, 07:41:56 am
Why is Trump against protection from global diseases?
This is a good question.
Post by: Reelya on February 27, 2020, 07:49:27 am
Why is Trump against protection from global diseases?
This is a good question.
Well the accurate answer is that he lumps it in with government health care. Similar to how he couldn't give a shit that 25% of all Americans don't have health coverage, he doesn't care about funding a national disease prevention body. It's up to the individual to manage their own disease prevention, not the state. The state is too busy building nukes.
Post by: Rockeater on February 27, 2020, 08:43:51 am
Two things that happened in Isreal related to the virus:
1) First case outside the ones knowns from the Japanise ship, someone returning from Italy, so the entire planeis isolated
2)A parlament member (Potential minister of health) gave a speach with a bunch of bulshiton the thing including the claim it's a biological weapon, so that sad.
Post by: Reelya on February 27, 2020, 08:53:35 am
A much more effective biological weapon would be just to replicate a ton of HN51 influenza then bombard a city with canisters. The fact that HN51 doesn't have good human-to-human spreading makes it desirable as a biological weapon, since it's highly deadly but has a short "half-life" as an outbreak, so you can come in a mop up afterwards.
Post by: Iduno on February 27, 2020, 09:55:18 am
Since Iran isn't really doing a quarantine, you can bet the party bus is doing its tour around the middle east, at the very least.
The Corona bus is comin' and everybody's jumpin'.
Wuhan to Thailand
Thailand to Japan
Sick people would just stay home for a few days(or still go to work.) Maybe see a doctor later if it persists after those few day. (At least that is how my family and I operate in the US.)
Hahahahahahaha! Hilarious. You can be sick when there are no more profits to be had. No go cough in that person's food before you serve it. And don't even think insurance will let you see a doctor.
Trump is a source of enteraining coronavirus news. He's taking personal credit for the lack of cases in the US now. And then straight away he announces Mike Pence is now the fall guy, so if cases spike up, it's Pence's fault.
For someone who throws a lot of people under busses, I'm guessing he's not really pro-public transportation.
Post by: Frumple on February 27, 2020, 10:02:40 am
In related news, apparently whoever owns the corona beer brand has issued a statement that there's no need to add disinfectant to their products to protect from the virus :-\Since Iran isn't really doing a quarantine, you can bet the party bus is doing its tour around the middle east, at the very least.
The Corona bus is comin' and everybody's jumpin'.
Wuhan to Thailand
Thailand to Japan
Post by: Iduno on February 27, 2020, 10:04:10 am
In related news, apparently whoever owns the corona beer brand has issued a statement that there's no need to add disinfectant to their products to protect from the virus :-\Since Iran isn't really doing a quarantine, you can bet the party bus is doing its tour around the middle east, at the very least.
The Corona bus is comin' and everybody's jumpin'.
Wuhan to Thailand
Thailand to Japan
I would, however, improve the flavor.
Edit: And, for my sins, I can no longer get the Vengabus song out of my head.
Post by: Ulfarr on February 27, 2020, 11:22:56 am
(https://i.imgflip.com/3qh4mn.jpg)
Post by: Bumber on February 27, 2020, 02:57:41 pm
QuoteIn 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.
Spoiler: Wasted a bunch of my time checking this (click to show/hide)
QuoteReducing national health spending by $US15 billion.
Spoiler: Wasted a bunch of my time checking this (click to show/hide)
Okay, I wasted a bunch of time fact-checking the above points when I shouldn't have. Turns out Business Insider is just misquoting other articles. I've numbered the points:
Quote
1. In 2018, for instance, the CDC cut 80% of its efforts to prevent global disease outbreaks because it was running out of money. Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10.
Here are some other actions the Trump administration undertook to dismantle government-spending programs related to fighting the spread of global diseases, according to Foreign Policy:
2. Shutting down the entire global-health-security unit of the National Security Council.
3. Eliminating the US government’s $US30 million Complex Crises Fund.
4. Reducing national health spending by $US15 billion.
5. Consistently attacking Mark Green, the director of the US Agency for International Development.
1. is from a Washington Post article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/02/01/cdc-to-cut-by-80-percent-efforts-to-prevent-global-disease-outbreak/):
Quote
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is dramatically downsizing its epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries because money is running out, U.S. government officials said.Not "Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10." The article ends with:
Quote
Officials at the CDC, the Department of Health and Human Services and the National Security Council pushed for more funding in the president's fiscal 2019 budget to be released this month. A senior government official said Thursday that the president's budget "will include details on global health security funding," but declined to elaborate.I don't care enough at this point to track down that budget and see what kind of funding it ended up getting.
2-5 are from a Foreign Policy article (https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-trump-united-states-public-health-emergency-response/).
2. The article asks:
Quote
If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it isLooks like Trump moved the responsibility elsewhere. There was a 2019 Global Health Security Strategy (https://www.health.mil/News/Articles/2019/05/13/DoD-joins-national-global-health-security-effort) thing. Is the DoD in charge of it now? IDK.
3. The article links to another article (https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/09/ebola-is-back-and-trump-is-trying-to-kill-funding-for-it/) that says:
Quote
Similarly, Trump seeks to cut $30 million worth of emergency response funds from the State Department’s Complex Crises Fund (CCF)Looks like (https://www.interaction.org/choose-to-invest/fy2020/other-development-accounts/complex-crises-fund/) it received funding for the year of 2019, so it must have stayed in. It's used as a fund for flexible foreign aid spending for stuff that hasn't been specifically approved. Seems like it has more to do with building nations and preventing conflict than disease control.
4. The article links to another Washington Post article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-calls-on-congress-to-pull-back-15-billion-in-spending-including-on-childrens-health-insurance-program/2018/05/07/9427de18-5216-11e8-a551-5b648abe29ef_story.html). It says:
Quote
President Trump is sending a plan to Congress that calls for stripping more than $15 billion in previously approved spendingNot "national health spending", which refers to the sum total of all US dollars spent on health services by everyone. The article goes on to say:
Quote
Almost half of the proposed cuts would come from two accounts within the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) that White House officials said expired last year or are not expected to be drawn upon. An additional $800 million in cuts would come from money created by the Affordable Care Act in 2010 to test innovative payment and service delivery models.
Quote
A senior administration official said Democrats should recognize that much of this package represents untapped accounts and that cutting the money would create savings without affecting operations.
Quote
Democrats have said they are watching the process with skepticism.We get the usual rhetoric from Chuck Schumer about how Trump and the Republicans are trying to steal healthcare away from the poor children. Ironically the $1.3 trillion spending bill passed while the cuts were being considered, which included:
Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fiscal-congress-factbox/factbox-what-is-in-the-1-3-trillion-spending-bill-before-the-congress-idUSKBN1GY3C9
$414 million increase for Alzheimer’s disease research, $40 million more for research on developing a universal flu vaccine and $17 million more for antibiotic-resistance bacteria research. Separately, it earmarks an additional $2.8 billion to fund treatment and prevention of opioid addiction and research into the subject.
5. lol :P
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 27, 2020, 03:52:40 pm
Post by: Zangi on February 27, 2020, 04:20:12 pm
Global health security. It has a distinct lack of national or US in it. Who cares what happens overseas, as long as it does not come over this way. (But here we see it coming at us now.)Why is Trump against protection from global diseases?
This is a good question.
Well the accurate answer is that he lumps it in with government health care. Similar to how he couldn't give a shit that 25% of all Americans don't have health coverage, he doesn't care about funding a national disease prevention body. It's up to the individual to manage their own disease prevention, not the state. The state is too busy building nukes.
It could also be reframed as US or national protection from global disease threats.
Also, yes, we gotta increase our bloated military budget some more.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 27, 2020, 04:38:27 pm
Should have done this weeks ago, but now it's off to the races
Post by: ZBridges on February 27, 2020, 04:52:59 pm
Post by: Folly on February 27, 2020, 05:31:19 pm
I haven't really had a chance to catch up on the coronavirus news. How worried should a Californian be about the epidemic and should that person start taking some sort of precautionary measures?
What we're hearing increasingly is that it doesn't matter what prevention measures you use, everyone is going to get this virus sooner or later. So just make sure you have some canned chicken soup ready to go when the time comes.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 27, 2020, 07:01:42 pm
Nobody is saying that.I haven't really had a chance to catch up on the coronavirus news. How worried should a Californian be about the epidemic and should that person start taking some sort of precautionary measures?
What we're hearing increasingly is that it doesn't matter what prevention measures you use, everyone is going to get this virus sooner or later. So just make sure you have some canned chicken soup ready to go when the time comes.
Post by: Trekkin on February 27, 2020, 07:10:46 pm
I haven't really had a chance to catch up on the coronavirus news. How worried should a Californian be about the epidemic and should that person start taking some sort of precautionary measures?
What we're hearing increasingly is that it doesn't matter what prevention measures you use, everyone is going to get this virus sooner or later. So just make sure you have some canned chicken soup ready to go when the time comes.
How do you get from 0.001% infected to everyone definitely going to catch it, especially with how many vaccines and cures are in development now?
Post by: Reelya on February 27, 2020, 07:43:51 pm
Quotethe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is dramatically downsizing its epidemic prevention activities in 39 out of 49 countries because money is running out, U.S. government officials said.Not "Ultimately, the department went from working in 49 countries to just 10."
So you're quibbling over the gap between "Dramatically downsizing" and "no longer working". Check.
Dramatically downsizing probably means they've abolished all their front-end spending programs and now only operate an office there that liaises with local health officials. Because the first thing you cut is frontline spending, and the last thing you do is close your branch office there.
Ok, so they only "dramatically downsized" their international disease prevention efforts in 80% of countries. Given that the point is asking whether the CDC slashed spending on disease prevention or not, the fact that they didn't slash exactly 100% of spending from any one country is kinda not the point here.
It's like someone saying their "pay was slashed to nothing", and you ask them how much they make now and it's "20 cents an hour" and you call them a liar, because 20 cents isn't "nothing". 20 cents and hour is functionally closer to not being paid at all than it is to earning a full salary, the same as dramatically slashing disease-prevention measures is functionally closer to just giving up than it is to making an effort.
Post by: Folly on February 27, 2020, 07:48:54 pm
How do you get from 0.001% infected to everyone definitely going to catch it, especially with how many vaccines and cures are in development now?
Exponential infection rates and estimated multiple years before vaccines will be ready for widespread deployment.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 27, 2020, 07:50:27 pm
How do you get from 0.001% infected to everyone definitely going to catch it, especially with how many vaccines and cures are in development now?
Gabriel Leung, Hong Kong's leading public health epidemiologist warns 60% of the global population could get infected (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-infection-could-reach-60-of-worlds-population) if left unchecked
Marc Lipsitch, Harvard epidemiology professor, estimates 40-70% (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/) if containment fails
The WHO estimates a public vaccine to take 18 months (https://www.sciencealert.com/who-says-a-coronavirus-vaccine-is-18-months-away)
Post by: delphonso on February 27, 2020, 08:08:29 pm
People are hopping on the opportunity to make money, and a few books about Covid19 are getting published. I'd be willing to hear them out, but the ones I've seen all are titled "Wuhan virus vs. The world" or some shit which villianizes Wuhan further.
And the newspaper I was getting updates about the virus seems to have pulled down all of their virus articles and information... So that's nice.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 27, 2020, 08:15:07 pm
a few books about Covid19 are getting published. I'd be willing to hear them out, but the ones I've seen all are titled "Wuhan virus vs. The world" or some shit which villianizes Wuhan further.Dean Koontz wrote a book called The Eyes of Darkness where the world was devastated by a 100% lethal bio-weapon. In later reprints the bio-weapon was called Wuhan-400.
This book was written in 1981. A weird coincidence.
Post by: delphonso on February 27, 2020, 08:18:20 pm
There was that book that detailed the Titanic before that happened, too.
Post by: Trekkin on February 27, 2020, 08:28:03 pm
How do you get from 0.001% infected to everyone definitely going to catch it, especially with how many vaccines and cures are in development now?
Exponential infection rates and estimated multiple years before vaccines will be ready for widespread deployment.
Except that infection rates are already lagging, and vaccine development is faster than ever -- to say nothing of entry inhibitors. Sure, it would take years under the old model, but we're already well ahead of predictions.
Post by: martinuzz on February 27, 2020, 08:54:43 pm
A 56 year old man, whom had recently travelled to Italy, has been quarantained in a hospital in Tilburg.
Now let's hope he didn't spend the past week partying with the carnaval crowds in town.
Post by: Cthulhu on February 27, 2020, 11:06:21 pm
If there's a panic, stores will be empty in hours, and there's not gonna be any restocking.
Meanwhile Turkey and Russia are openly clashing in Syria, and there's a locust plague running all the way from North Africa to China. Which horseman is gonna hit the finish line first?
Post by: scriver on February 28, 2020, 12:52:06 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 28, 2020, 07:11:38 am
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 07:14:55 am
EDIT:
Quote
Earlier on Thursday, CNN reported that Vice President Mike Pence's office would be in charge of all coronavirus messaging after several aides blamed negative coverage of the response on too many mixed messages from senior members of the administration. Later in the day, reports surfaced that a whistleblower at the Department of Health and Human Services is seeking federal protection after complaining that more than a dozen workers who had received the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, lacked proper training or protective gear for infection control.
Obviously it would be a waste to waste protective gear on mere lackeys dealing with potentially infected people coming off the planes. Those workers should clearly provide their own protective gear from the free market.
Seriously, this is how I think those high-level people think about the rank and file workers and citizens:
Say I'm an official, and I order you as a worker to go into a radioactive environment without proper protective gear. Well, that's not my fault, right, is it? You agreed to go in there after all. And if you were someone who actually mattered, you wouldn't be in the position of having to agree to go in there. Or, you say you weren't properly informed about the risk. Well, what sort of loser is in the position of risking their life without knowing the risks? A worthwhile person would have that information to start with.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 28, 2020, 07:23:24 am
If the coronavirus hits a conflict zone in the colder months then there could well be a big outbreak that's harder to contain.Saudis closed Mecca & Medina to pilgrims; not hard to imagine if they kept the door open someone could bring coronavirus to the Arabian peninsula, where it could then spread to Iraq, Syria or Yemen. Granted it's already spreading in Iran so it could spread through the Arabian peninsula through the Zagros mountains
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 07:40:11 am
For example, say the black market price you can get for a facemask goes to $30, but there is a $5 price cap on the store-price. What happens is one guy will come in, buy 100 face masks for $5 each, and charge that $30. Except now that guys sitting on a stockpile of them, so the shortage is worse than before, so he can probably charge $50 each. So, what you have to end up doing is rationing the price-controlled product. This is what happened to the USSR in the 1970s btw. They wanted to deal with inflation, so they put price controls in, which lead to hoarding/speculating/black marketing, so they then implemented rationing, and that's when they ended up with the "bread lines". The lines weren't long because there's a shortage of bread, the lines were long because consumers had too much money vs the amount of bread, and someone could come in and buy up excess bread at the price-controlled price then scalp it on the black market for a significant profit if they didn't ration out sales. The lines were because the price was kept artificially low.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 28, 2020, 07:42:50 am
-South Korea
-Japan
Have all reported cases where ‘recovered’ patients have had a relapse in symptoms.
Either reinfection or a situation where they were never truly cured to begin with
Post by: delphonso on February 28, 2020, 07:50:24 am
Don't break the bank on masks, Reelya. Just stay a few meters away from everyone else.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 28, 2020, 08:02:36 am
I'm less worried about the disease itself than the knock-on economic effects. DOW dropped 1200 points today, and we haven't even hit the supply chain crunch yet. Everything's just-in-time now so imagine what it's gonna look like if there's a panic rush for supplies and a shortage of said supplies at the same time. I used to work at a grocery store, we got trucks in every day to maintain maybe half the store's on-shelf inventory in backstock. The deli cooler had capacity for maybe 48 hours of normal shopping without a resupply, and the more I think about it the more that sounds optimistic.
If there's a panic, stores will be empty in hours, and there's not gonna be any restocking.
Question: supposing I were to be 'smart' and start discretely stocking up right now (in U.S.) what would be good things to buy to start hoarding right now.
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 08:06:28 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-colds/cold-weather-can-actually-cause-colds-study-finds-idUSKBN0KE1OK20150105
https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/22/6/608/497956
So that's an indirect way they may protect you. If coronaviruses spread in colder weather and they're anything like rhinoviruses then they should replicate more slowly if you keep the nasal passage warm, giving you more change to fight off the infection. Masks create a barrier of warmer exhaled air.
Post by: delphonso on February 28, 2020, 08:09:26 am
That's an interesting point, Reelya.
Post by: scriver on February 28, 2020, 08:12:16 am
I'm just too hot.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 28, 2020, 08:14:09 am
Question: supposing I were to be 'smart' and start discretely stocking up right now (in U.S.) what would be good things to buy to start hoarding right now.Campbell's tomato soup. And peaches in syrup. And guns, with lots of spare ammo.
For more information please refer to Cormac McCarthy's seminal work on the subject entitled 'The Road'.
Also, watch out for Tamer Virus roaming the wasteland, for he's similarly prepared.
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 08:19:10 am
I'm not sure I agree with the tomato soup idea. Lycopene is the main good thing in tomatoes that you're getting as far as I know, and that is more concentrated in tomato pastes or tomato sauces. Canned sardines in tomato sauce are thus a good choice, because they're high in omega3s, fats, protein and lycopene.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 28, 2020, 08:20:42 am
Masks do one thing though. They keep your mouth and nasal passages a lot warmer. Rhinoviruses for example thrive in specific temperatures that are a bit lower than body temperature. Making it just a couple of degrees warmer may in fact strongly reduce the proliferation rate.Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-colds/cold-weather-can-actually-cause-colds-study-finds-idUSKBN0KE1OK20150105
https://academic.oup.com/fampra/article/22/6/608/497956
So that's an indirect way they may protect you. If coronaviruses spread in colder weather and they're anything like rhinoviruses then they should replicate more slowly if you keep the nasal passage warm, giving you more change to fight off the infection. Masks create a barrier of warmer exhaled air.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 08:28:57 am
Quote
One of the first studies to test how environmental conditions affect viral transmission was published in 2007, and it looked at how influenza spread through guinea pigs infected in a lab. High temperatures and in particular high humidity slowed the influenza spread, and at very high humidity levels, the virus stopped spreading completely. Warmer air holds more moisture, which prevents airborne viruses from traveling as far as they would in dry air. In humid conditions, the small liquid droplets in a cough or sneeze gather more moisture as they’re expelled. Eventually too heavy to stay airborne, they drop to the ground.
Which would suggest that masks, which both act as a barrier and keep your airways warm and moist should have some effect.
It's just common sense. Naturally, it's already been studied:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/do-face-masks-prevent-virus_l_5e304a13c5b6ce51a4ec0a09
Quote
There is some evidence that, when used correctly, face masks can slow the spread of airborne viruses. For example, one study from 2008 found that those who used a mask were 80% less likely to get the flu. Another 2009 report found that, in tandem with frequent hand-washing, face masks lowered people’s risk of getting the flu by about 70%.
So that's strong empirical evidence, along with the above reasoning-based argument, that wearing a mask could confer general protection, along with explaining why.
The reason there can be conflicting arguments is due to faulty or incomplete reasoning. For example you could say "face masks leave 99% of the air passing through them unfiltered, therefore they can't possibly provide any protection against viruses - they let all the viruses in!" The problem here is that the argument itself is faulty. The facts weren't wrong, but the conclusion was wrong, because the facts given don't automatically imply the conclusion. A ton of assumptions are made, which remain unspoken: the assumption is made on how masks are supposed to work, the masks are then shown to not work that way, then the conclusion is given that because you disproved that one way, then masks can't possible work at all. It's like claiming that trees grow from eating the soil, then noting the amount of soil hasn't decreased, then saying as a conclusion that trees don't grow.
We just have to look at the study showing that mask users got 80% less cases of the flu to realize there must be a flaw in the argument. Maybe the mask users got less flu because their nasal passages were kept significantly warmer during the high-risk periods that they were outdoors, and it had nothing to do with filtering viruses.
Post by: Folly on February 28, 2020, 09:21:59 am
Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.
The World Health Organization got us into this mess! If we want to beat the Corona, we'll have to think for ourselves...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 28, 2020, 09:29:25 am
I prefer Belgian beer myselfOr, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.
The World Health Organization got us into this mess! If we want to beat the Corona, we'll have to think for ourselves...
Post by: Zangi on February 28, 2020, 09:34:44 am
My special bleach blend mix will protect you from the corona virus! Just quaff 1 cup a day! Buy now!Or, you could follow the advice of the WHO, rather than come up with armchair reasons to do otherwise.
The World Health Organization got us into this mess! If we want to beat the Corona, we'll have to think for ourselves...
Post by: martinuzz on February 28, 2020, 09:38:59 am
The Dutch AEX has dropped back to the level it was at in march 2019.
Similar drops can be seen at stock markets in other countries.
Shareholders are licking their wounds, as the world wide virus panic strikes hard at economies.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 28, 2020, 09:59:15 am
This week is poised to be the worst week since the 08 financial crisis.
Dow Jones is now down another 900+ points.
Post by: Ulfarr on February 28, 2020, 10:02:50 am
Question: supposing I were to be 'smart' and start discretely stocking up right now (in U.S.) what would be good things to buy to start hoarding right now.
Salt! Good to season your food, preserve your food or barter for food, stores rather well too. Alternatively if those reports about the stock market collapsing is anything to go by then stocking up on some good stocks now might turn some decent profits when things normalize.
Post by: Bumber on February 28, 2020, 10:10:04 am
So you're quibbling over the gap between "Dramatically downsizing" and "no longer working". Check.
Dramatically downsizing probably means they've abolished all their front-end spending programs and now only operate an office there that liaises with local health officials. Because the first thing you cut is frontline spending, and the last thing you do is close your branch office there.
Ok, so they only "dramatically downsized" their international disease prevention efforts in 80% of countries. Given that the point is asking whether the CDC slashed spending on disease prevention or not, the fact that they didn't slash exactly 100% of spending from any one country is kinda not the point here.
It's like someone saying their "pay was slashed to nothing", and you ask them how much they make now and it's "20 cents an hour" and you call them a liar, because 20 cents isn't "nothing". 20 cents and hour is functionally closer to not being paid at all than it is to earning a full salary, the same as dramatically slashing disease-prevention measures is functionally closer to just giving up than it is to making an effort.
Well it turns out it's not true anyway:
Quote from: https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104
For starters, Trump hasn’t succeeded in cutting the budget.
He’s proposed cuts but Congress ignored him and increased financing instead. The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 10:10:23 am
I just a week time, stock markets have seen their profits over the past year evaporate.
The Dutch AEX has dropped back to the level it was at in march 2019.
Similar drops can be seen at stock markets in other countries.
Shareholders are licking their wounds, as the world wide virus panic strikes hard at economies.
Two possible pathways is that either this is an over-correction and the market will bounce back, or the market was already in a bubble, and this may pop the bubble.
Post by: Telgin on February 28, 2020, 10:19:32 am
A somewhat legitimate one, mind you, since the industrial downturn in China over the past few weeks will definitely have some material impact.
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 10:28:41 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-coronavirus.html
Post by: Teneb on February 28, 2020, 10:37:18 am
One of the few upsides is that CO2 emissions are down quite a bit.Coronavirus will save the planet!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-coronavirus.html
Anyway, sorry for lack of links but: the virus has spread to my state due to a french couple that had been to Catalonia previously. They went to the hospital so you'd think the news would end there but... the two of them decided that, and this is after they were confirmed infected, they wanted to leave the hospital at any cost. And boy they tried so much that a judge had to issue an order to forcibly keep them in said hospital, where they currently are in isolation.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 28, 2020, 10:40:35 am
wowOne of the few upsides is that CO2 emissions are down quite a bit.Coronavirus will save the planet!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-coronavirus.html
Anyway, sorry for lack of links but: the virus has spread to my state due to a french couple that had been to Catalonia previously. They went to the hospital so you'd think the news would end there but... the two of them decided that, and this is after they were confirmed infected, they wanted to leave the hospital at any cost. And boy they tried so much that a judge had to issue an order to forcibly keep them in said hospital, where they currently are in isolation.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 28, 2020, 10:47:03 am
A somewhat legitimate one, mind you, since the industrial downturn in China over the past few weeks will definitely have some material impact.Investors are worried about a supply side shock. From what I heard, demand indicators are actually fine.
Now the issue is that typical remedies that the central banks use (quantitative easing/throw massive amounts of money at it) isn't gonna make supplies magically appear.
I think the last reference for something of this nature was the oil crisis in the 70's
Post by: scriver on February 28, 2020, 10:51:39 am
One of the few upsides is that CO2 emissions are down quite a bit.Coronavirus will save the planet!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-coronavirus.html
Anyway, sorry for lack of links but: the virus has spread to my state due to a french couple that had been to Catalonia previously. They went to the hospital so you'd think the news would end there but... the two of them decided that, and this is after they were confirmed infected, they wanted to leave the hospital at any cost. And boy they tried so much that a judge had to issue an order to forcibly keep them in said hospital, where they currently are in isolation.
More French cases in South America!
Post by: Bumber on February 28, 2020, 11:19:24 am
Coronavirus will save the planet!
Can Coronavirus Save the World?, microcline-bound codex
Post by: martinuzz on February 28, 2020, 11:36:06 am
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/liveblog-mexico-meldt-eerste-besmetting-coronavirus~b63e83f8/
(it's my newspaper's live blog about all things realated to the virus, circumvent the newspaper's paywall by using Firefox with the NoScript add-on)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 28, 2020, 12:07:32 pm
One of the few upsides is that CO2 emissions are down quite a bit.Coronavirus will save the planet!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-coronavirus.html
Anyway, sorry for lack of links but: the virus has spread to my state due to a french couple that had been to Catalonia previously. They went to the hospital so you'd think the news would end there but... the two of them decided that, and this is after they were confirmed infected, they wanted to leave the hospital at any cost. And boy they tried so much that a judge had to issue an order to forcibly keep them in said hospital, where they currently are in isolation.
More French cases in South America!
The king was right after all! It´s all the Catalonian´s fault.
Post by: delphonso on February 28, 2020, 09:11:33 pm
I get that the virus will have long term economic impacts, but is money really our god this much that it's the primary concern?
Post by: Egan_BW on February 28, 2020, 09:41:32 pm
Post by: Reelya on February 28, 2020, 10:18:45 pm
So you're quibbling over the gap between "Dramatically downsizing" and "no longer working". Check.
Dramatically downsizing probably means they've abolished all their front-end spending programs and now only operate an office there that liaises with local health officials. Because the first thing you cut is frontline spending, and the last thing you do is close your branch office there.
Ok, so they only "dramatically downsized" their international disease prevention efforts in 80% of countries. Given that the point is asking whether the CDC slashed spending on disease prevention or not, the fact that they didn't slash exactly 100% of spending from any one country is kinda not the point here.
It's like someone saying their "pay was slashed to nothing", and you ask them how much they make now and it's "20 cents an hour" and you call them a liar, because 20 cents isn't "nothing". 20 cents and hour is functionally closer to not being paid at all than it is to earning a full salary, the same as dramatically slashing disease-prevention measures is functionally closer to just giving up than it is to making an effort.
Well it turns out it's not true anyway:Quote from: https://apnews.com/d36d6c4de29f4d04beda3db00cb46104For starters, Trump hasn’t succeeded in cutting the budget.
He’s proposed cuts but Congress ignored him and increased financing instead. The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention aren’t suffering from budget cuts that never took effect.
Yeah, sorry about that Bumber, I did look at the actual CDC website for the figures myself and there's been no decrease. When the secondary sources are all conflicting and seem to come from reputable papers then it's hard to determine what the facts are.
However, the "Trump didn't slash the budget" thing isn't related to the "funding was slashed in 39/49 countries" thing. Those are completely unrelated issues, and thus proving that Trump didn't get that budget-cut through Congress doesn't mean the claim that funding was slashed in 39/49 countries is a false claim.
What I think the mix-up here is that the CDC did slash spending in those ~ 40/50 countries to next to nothing, but it turns out that the original spending was part of a specific bill for funding those programs, with a specific amount of dollars allocated to it - there was no yearly funding for any of this. The money then ran out and Congress never did anything to renew the funding. This was money the CDC was getting in addition to their stated budget, but that money no longer exists. So overall, the CDC's amount of money is lower, even though you can still truthfully claim that "their budget is the same". So, it's the grey area between "reducing their budget" and "not renewing discretionary budget items".
This then seems to have morphed in the news into "CDC cuts 80% of funding for XYZ", when it really was that they didn't have any funding left for the entire project, so withdrew from 80% of countries, and took money from the CDC's discretionary budget spending to maintain a remnant of the program in a short-listed selection of countries.
So yes, the true part is that spending was massively slashed in 39/49 countries, basically because the funding ran out for that, and the CDC has had to cobble-together a smaller program out of it by taking money from the main budget.
Post by: martinuzz on February 29, 2020, 05:14:29 am
In the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas, locals have set fire to a hospital because rumour was spread that 10 corona patients from the city of Qom were transferred to it's quarantaine department.
According to the hospital, this wasn't even the case.
The hospital of Qom, the city where the virus outbreak in Iran started, is so full that there is no room for new patients.
Authorities are considering building a field hospital.
According to the BBC, who got it's numbers from sources inside Iranian hospitals, the death count in Iran is up to 210.
According to the Iranian government, there are 38 dead and 388 infected.
Post by: coalboat on February 29, 2020, 07:25:49 am
Post by: McTraveller on February 29, 2020, 10:17:44 am
The hospital of Qom, the city where the virus outbreak in Iran started, is so full that there is no room for new patients.
:
According to the Iranian government, there are 38 dead and 388 infected.
So every single infected person in Iran is at that single hospital? Or is every person who has a sniffle going to the hospital? Or was the hospital already at like 95% capacity so had no margin in the first place? More data required...
(Although, that said, I'm gonna guess that hospitals like to be close to capacity to maximize that revenue... at least in the US. I dunno about other countries. If it were up to me I would treat spare hospital capacity as a strategic resource.)
Post by: coalboat on February 29, 2020, 10:30:32 am
Post by: Teneb on February 29, 2020, 10:33:12 am
Doing a little update on this: turns out the two frenchfolk? It was a false positive (t'was influenza) and they wasted everyone's time by panicking instead of just waiting for the second test.One of the few upsides is that CO2 emissions are down quite a bit.Coronavirus will save the planet!
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/climate/nyt-climate-newsletter-coronavirus.html
Anyway, sorry for lack of links but: the virus has spread to my state due to a french couple that had been to Catalonia previously. They went to the hospital so you'd think the news would end there but... the two of them decided that, and this is after they were confirmed infected, they wanted to leave the hospital at any cost. And boy they tried so much that a judge had to issue an order to forcibly keep them in said hospital, where they currently are in isolation.
Anyway, disease is spreading here. Got some cases in my city and facemasks and alcohol gel are out of stock everywhere. There've been reports by journalists about fuckers going into pharmacies and literally buying their whole stock of alcohol.
EDIT: Oh yeah, and Bolsonaro's fashies are now spreading rumours that Coronavirus was intentionally spread in Brazil by the "leftpaths" (leftie + psycopath), as they love to call us, to undermine their antidemocratic protests ('cuz that's a thing that's actually going on).
Post by: TamerVirus on February 29, 2020, 10:54:04 am
Or was the hospital already at like 95% capacity so had no margin in the first place?It's this.
Healthcare systems around the world don't have the surge capacity needed to handle the Coronavirus.
We've seen this in Wuhan and now we are seeing it in Daegu, Qom and Lombardy.
On average, 20% of Coronavirus sufferers will need ICU care and assisted breathing.
And then they occupy that hospital bed for weeks.
There's already stories out there of people dying of totally unrelated medical problems because all the local hospitals have been refocused to treating Coronavirus specifically
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 29, 2020, 11:19:45 am
I'm going to start responding to friends and family with, "Life is, in a word, disease."
I get that the virus will have long term economic impacts, but is money really our god this much that it's the primary concern?
I feel the same way delphonso, so many news articles covering the virus, and most of them are some variant of "Virus stopping MY economic growth?!" or "Mah stocks are dropping nooooo!" and it just sickens me. People are suffering, some real serious historical shit is going down, and all they can think about is their shitty shitty profit margins.
Post by: Trekkin on February 29, 2020, 02:06:34 pm
People are suffering, some real serious historical shit is going down, and all they can think about is their shitty shitty profit margins.
Those profit margins directly affect our ability to mitigate that suffering, you know.
Post by: Zangi on February 29, 2020, 03:25:17 pm
It is very unlikely to see those profits going toward anything health related.People are suffering, some real serious historical shit is going down, and all they can think about is their shitty shitty profit margins.
Those profit margins directly affect our ability to mitigate that suffering, you know.
Indirectly, via wages and stuff, sure. A lot of people will be put out of work if goods stop moving around cause of quarantines. Is actually already happening.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 29, 2020, 04:10:57 pm
People are suffering, some real serious historical shit is going down, and all they can think about is their shitty shitty profit margins.
Those profit margins directly affect our ability to mitigate that suffering, you know.
Meanwhile people can't afford doctor visits and get zero sick days. Because of razor thin margins and constant cutting of worker pay and benefits.
Employers are just going to reap what they sow.
Post by: delphonso on February 29, 2020, 08:26:21 pm
I feel the same way delphonso, so many news articles covering the virus, and most of them are some variant of "Virus stopping MY economic growth?!" or "Mah stocks are dropping nooooo!" and it just sickens me. People are suffering, some real serious historical shit is going down, and all they can think about is their shitty shitty profit margins.
On the American side, I think this has to do with the election coming up. Trump's primary standing point has been that the economy (stock market) is doing well under his administration. It just seems very...dehumanizing to me.
Those profit margins directly affect our ability to mitigate that suffering, you know.
If that's the case, the system is seriously flawed.
Anyway, sounds like the US had their first confirmed coronavirus death (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931).
Post by: Reelya on February 29, 2020, 08:35:52 pm
The scariest thing is the piecemeal approach to testing the US apparently has. One of the first unknown-cause cases was almost turned away by the CDC because he didn't meet the "testing criteria". In other words, if they don't already know how you got it, they refuse to test you, at least until you're clearly sick and they can rule out every other cause.
I see this spreading quite widely in the US due to the very large number of people who have no coverage and can't afford to go see a doctor just in case. Then they'll also listen to Trump and say "well it's only a small chance of death, i'll take my chances", and they'll still turn up to work because they can't afford not to.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on February 29, 2020, 09:10:36 pm
Post by: Frumple on February 29, 2020, 09:31:17 pm
Or in other words basically everything old people are progressively worse at. So yes, something like a nursing home is probably going to see rapid infection.
Now, with good care access (stuff to keep your lungs lunging, mostly) even old people have better than even odds of survival, from what I understand... but that's contingent on having access. And you're talking the US, where tens of millions don't have insurance, rural areas are persistently underserved, and the executive branch was trying to claim reports of the danger of the virus are an attack on the president, last I noticed. Etc., etc., etc. We probably have the capability, conceptually, but the will? Hahahaha :-\
So like. Fucked? Probably pretty fucked.
Post by: coalboat on February 29, 2020, 09:45:45 pm
The bigger news in that article is that coronavirus is now hitting at least one nursing home in Washington state. 32 likely infections by the sound of things. That's a new point, a culture which collects its elderly in special centers is like giving this disease incubation centers.
Some old people in nursing home in Wuhan also died from pneumonia, but as they didn't get the chance to get tested, the official cause of death is just ordinary flu. The increased death rate compared to historical data suggests that it's likely to be coronavirus.
Post by: Reelya on February 29, 2020, 10:08:38 pm
Data appears to suggest that COVID-19 is ridiculously deadly in the 75+ age group as well as being skewed towards age overall when causing deaths and/or hospitalization. If there's a factor that is also making it spread powerfully in environments like nursing homes, the death toll could skyrocket. Particularly given how useless the US healthcare system is, not that there's an active treatment for COVID-19.
Unless you're 100% sure you have the actual coronavirus, please keep coming in to work and don't see a doctor. Otherwise it may impact your premiums.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on February 29, 2020, 10:12:29 pm
Too rational. You're looking for "you have to come into work, but you are prohibited from working when sick, but you need a signed and certified doctor's note if you are sick, but you need to distinguish between 'sitting sick' in which case we need you to work from home or 'laying sick' in which case we need you to take full PTO until you return and also if you miss three continuous days you're automatically terminated regardless due your pattern of irresponsibility, and also only the HR Veep in the corporate office on the other side of the country is allowed to override any aspect of any of these policies. Also we're raising your premium no matter what happens due to projected changes in healthcare claims caused by the virus."Data appears to suggest that COVID-19 is ridiculously deadly in the 75+ age group as well as being skewed towards age overall when causing deaths and/or hospitalization. If there's a factor that is also making it spread powerfully in environments like nursing homes, the death toll could skyrocket. Particularly given how useless the US healthcare system is, not that there's an active treatment for COVID-19.
Unless you're 100% sure you have the actual coronavirus, please keep coming in to work and don't see a doctor. Otherwise it may impact your premiums.
Post by: Reelya on February 29, 2020, 10:16:47 pm
If people are that easily replaced, then they should part-time everyone and bring more people on board to start with so that they have more flexibility. The problem is that in a large corporation, all the people in a position to make such decisions just don't care and they're petty spiteful people who enjoy that they can cause misery by merely following along with a procedure manual, since it's someone else's money they're actually wasting.
Where I work, I do need a medical certificate, but that's only if I'm claiming a paid sick day out of my yearly allowance of paid days off. I can take unpaid days off all I want. Asking for medical certificates for unpaid days off is just frankly imbecilic. It's an unnecessary cost to every party involved. And also, it should be illegal since it overburdens the medical system.
If they're bullying the existing people to maintain their shifts no matter what, when there are clearly other people available to do the work, as they are threatening, that's sheer laziness and spitefulness on part of the lower management, not anything to do with locked in stone company policy or profitability. Yes, they could find people to cover your work when you're out for a few days, and that would massively boost overall efficiency if things ran like that, but they just don't want to do any work. And then they'll make it about you not wanting to working.
Post by: scriver on March 01, 2020, 01:33:35 pm
Conspiracy Theory: It almost seems like the disease was engineered to affect the adult demographic of a population. Now why would China *ever* want to make such a virus...
Post by: Imic on March 01, 2020, 02:49:41 pm
A School in Dublin’s been closed after someone got sick with the virus, so that’s fun.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 01, 2020, 03:00:01 pm
What is known is that the R0 (average number of people each infected person infects) is somewhere between 2 and 4, which is consistent with SARS and MERS as well as being pretty bad for a disease this lethal.
Post by: Imic on March 02, 2020, 04:38:21 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4k_OEW02cb4
I’m not confident that our healthcare system is robust enough to deal with this.
Post by: Iduno on March 02, 2020, 09:23:08 am
Employers are just going to reap what they sow.
No they won't.
Those profit margins directly affect our ability to mitigate that suffering, you know.
If that's the case, the system is seriously flawed.
Anyway, sounds like the US had their first confirmed coronavirus death (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/1st-coronavirus-death-u-s-officials-say-n1145931).
IF it's the case? Isn't the US the country who created their own, much more expensive (thousands of dollars) and also ineffective, test for coronavirus even though one that worked already exists? I'd say that best case scenario is profits got in the way of lives. Intentional sabotage also seems somewhat likely.
Too rational. You're looking for "you have to come into work, but you are prohibited from working when sick, but you need a signed and certified doctor's note if you are sick, but you need to distinguish between 'sitting sick' in which case we need you to work from home or 'laying sick' in which case we need you to take full PTO until you return and also if you miss three continuous days you're automatically terminated regardless due your pattern of irresponsibility, and also only the HR Veep in the corporate office on the other side of the country is allowed to override any aspect of any of these policies. Also we're raising your premium no matter what happens due to projected changes in healthcare claims caused by the virus."Data appears to suggest that COVID-19 is ridiculously deadly in the 75+ age group as well as being skewed towards age overall when causing deaths and/or hospitalization. If there's a factor that is also making it spread powerfully in environments like nursing homes, the death toll could skyrocket. Particularly given how useless the US healthcare system is, not that there's an active treatment for COVID-19.
Unless you're 100% sure you have the actual coronavirus, please keep coming in to work and don't see a doctor. Otherwise it may impact your premiums.
Easier just to fire people for getting sick, and make the ever-fewer employees cover for them with unpaid overtime. That'll show 'em.
Post by: scourge728 on March 02, 2020, 10:29:16 am
Post by: Zangi on March 02, 2020, 01:36:29 pm
So I heard hospitals are charging over 3k per Covid19 test. (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-coronavirus-treatment-cost-cdc-health-insurance-2020-2)
Yea, I ain’t paying that premium. Let the plague come.
Post by: Akura on March 02, 2020, 01:41:00 pm
But here's some Last Week Tonight about it. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c09m5f7Gnic)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 02, 2020, 01:57:09 pm
Post by: scourge728 on March 02, 2020, 02:04:22 pm
Post by: Toady One on March 02, 2020, 05:45:28 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 02, 2020, 06:43:23 pm
They’ll be dead by the time you are one of them old people. So sure, the world will change with you.Apparently someone put under mandatory quarantine in the US got served a 2k plus bill, too. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/upshot/coronavirus-surprise-medical-bills.html)Nevermind the premium, even just going to the hospital or coming in from out of country might get you nailed.
So I heard hospitals are charging over 3k per Covid19 test. (https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-does-coronavirus-treatment-cost-cdc-health-insurance-2020-2)
Yea, I ain’t paying that premium. Let the plague come.
In other news, at least two confirmed cases in florida now that the CDC has loosened who gets tested. Shit's coast to coast now, I guess.
Post by: Reelya on March 02, 2020, 07:10:02 pm
I wouldn't be very surprised if Americans en-masse pretend not to have the coronavirus because the private medical system is so broken, thus ensuring just about the worst outbreak anywhere when it actually hits, and this then propels Sanders to the White House in November.
One of the problems is the testing criteria in the USA. You have to be pretty much at death's door before they'll even test for coronavirus, so you get guys who were tested for coronavirus on friday, drop dead by sunday, having already spread it to god knows how many people.
Post by: delphonso on March 02, 2020, 08:46:33 pm
Jordan has its first case as well.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 02, 2020, 09:14:40 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 02, 2020, 11:23:57 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 02, 2020, 11:40:19 pm
Don’t test, don’t tell
Can't test, won't tell
Post by: Reelya on March 03, 2020, 04:42:13 am
BTW I have a colleague who's a guns-and-death-penalty "do you even lift?" / keto anti-soy bro (the kind who thinks Trump is a straight talking good ol' guy and wants someone like that here, too), and he's welcoming the virus, on the belief that it'll "toughen him up". Not wishing ill on anyone but it would be highly ironic if he did get it and it derailed his fine-tuned bro weight lifting thing. I guess the logic there is that if he gets pneumonia but survives, he believes that'll give him super-powers.
Post by: King Zultan on March 03, 2020, 04:49:56 am
Post by: Reelya on March 03, 2020, 04:54:59 am
What'd I miss because I see that something happened here to summon Toady, or did he show up because of what scourge728 said?
Pretty much that. You can glean some of the context from the following posts. I'm guessing it was about Boomers.
Post by: delphonso on March 03, 2020, 05:01:39 am
Post by: King Zultan on March 03, 2020, 05:33:20 am
Ah I figured that was it but I wasn't sure if there more or not, and I did get to see what scourge728 wrote and I thought it was shitty thing to say.What'd I miss because I see that something happened here to summon Toady, or did he show up because of what scourge728 said?
Pretty much that. You can glean some of the context from the following posts. I'm guessing it was about Boomers.
Post by: scriver on March 03, 2020, 07:44:32 am
This is going to be a shitstorm especially for the USA. It won't matter if the virus isn't that deadly, if it basically spreads unchecked and the system doesn't work to stop it then the question would need to be asked, what if it was a deadlier an also fast-spreading one next time?
BTW I have a colleague who's a guns-and-death-penalty "do you even lift?" / keto anti-soy bro (the kind who thinks Trump is a straight talking good ol' guy and wants someone like that here, too), and he's welcoming the virus, on the belief that it'll "toughen him up". Not wishing ill on anyone but it would be highly ironic if he did get it and it derailed his fine-tuned bro weight lifting thing. I guess the logic there is that if he gets pneumonia but survives, he believes that'll give him super-powers.
What doesn't kill you makes you asymptomatic carrier
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 03, 2020, 09:36:57 am
There's an outbreak in my hometown. No severe cases so far, but there are 10 people with the disease (quarantined in their houses) plus many more quarantined because of contact with the former.
Now... the regional goverment has put up a job offer in which they require people "preferibly epidemiology specialists but it's not required", for "labwork". Wages around 20% less than standard F.E.A (what would be a consultant/attending in UK/US) wages here.
My take? This is a honey pot trap to get cheap doctors to go around the city checking on those ten infected and the quarantined ones.
You see, the advert does not make much sense. An epidemiologist works mainly with statistics. It's office work, not lab work. Now, it could be that they need some extra people to manage excel sheets, but it's far more likely that they want the quarantined people checked and they dont want their regular GPs to do it because if they get infected and pass it to regular patients they risk making the outbreak worse. And since none of the cases are terribly severe, and most of the quarantined people dont actually have symptoms, they figure that they can manage this hooking in people right out of med school (it's actually a good date to try this because there will be people who didnt pass or didnt get what they wanted in the national speciality exam and the money would be attractive for them).
Myself, eh, I'd rather work in my own field. I suspect most people with a speciality feel the same.
Post by: Imic on March 03, 2020, 01:50:45 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 03, 2020, 02:18:30 pm
All the pharmacies in my area have run out of hand sanitizer, and have started stocking medical masks. People are buying up a lot of food. There are plans to go to the army and Navy surplus shop in Limerick to buy gas masks radiating around the Village. Things are very tense.I'm kind of worried that the whole situation might impact negatively in that job I was pursuing
Post by: Iduno on March 03, 2020, 02:57:48 pm
All the pharmacies in my area have run out of hand sanitizer, and have started stocking medical masks. People are buying up a lot of food. There are plans to go to the army and Navy surplus shop in Limerick to buy gas masks radiating around the Village. Things are very tense.I'm kind of worried that the whole situation might impact negatively in that job I was pursuing
On one hand, they'll need more doctors. On the other hand, it's easier for lazy/incompetent people to reject an applicant on a suspicion than test you for anything.
Good news is, most of the lazy and incompetent management will weed themselves out for you.
Post by: nenjin on March 03, 2020, 03:08:55 pm
Hopefully a vaccine/reasonable medication can be developed, though. Preferably one that isn't thousands of dollars.
They're testing a vaccine here in my state (Nebraska) right now.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 03, 2020, 04:16:57 pm
But they'll need mostly more NCHDs which I am not (and am not interested in being). I'm worried about suspicion being a problem.All the pharmacies in my area have run out of hand sanitizer, and have started stocking medical masks. People are buying up a lot of food. There are plans to go to the army and Navy surplus shop in Limerick to buy gas masks radiating around the Village. Things are very tense.I'm kind of worried that the whole situation might impact negatively in that job I was pursuing
On one hand, they'll need more doctors. On the other hand, it's easier for lazy/incompetent people to reject an applicant on a suspicion than test you for anything.
Good news is, most of the lazy and incompetent management will weed themselves out for you.
Mind you this is specifically about job prospects abroad. At home... well I could possibly get something, but not at home home, but elsewhere in Spain. I wrote today to Madrid but I'd rather not go.
Post by: Akura on March 03, 2020, 05:47:05 pm
Post by: nenjin on March 03, 2020, 05:58:47 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 03, 2020, 06:01:03 pm
Installing shit on a customer's computer and I'm seeing their Windows 10 email alerts come across their screen.....all mentioning Corona Virus.
It takes them longer to notice if you do it inside of the case.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 03, 2020, 06:03:20 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on March 03, 2020, 06:05:02 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 03, 2020, 06:07:30 pm
A lot of workers on the floor restocking. So they're apparently restocking at night then it empties again by the next night.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 03, 2020, 06:11:42 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 03, 2020, 10:25:45 pm
The first of however many dead cat bounces has happened fiscally - Dow Jones down by over 700 again after an interest rate cut on Monday.
The real bubonic plague victims here. Would somebody think of the investors?
Post by: Frumple on March 03, 2020, 10:38:25 pm
Actually, do day traders count as garnish, or...?
Post by: Cthulhu on March 03, 2020, 11:04:03 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 04, 2020, 06:18:35 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on March 04, 2020, 06:29:57 am
At a Woolworth's supermarket in Sydney there was an incident. There was a fight over a roll of toilet paper, and one woman pulled a knife. The correct term here is Roid Rage.
It's time to restart the best gameshow ever made: Supermarket Sweep (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhMNxncu5Gg)
Post by: Reelya on March 04, 2020, 06:35:15 am
https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Quilton-36-Pack-Toilet-Paper-Toilet-Roll-3-ply/233514257067
It's the nice 3-ply stuff and a bulk 36-roll pack.
A mere $350 Australian dollars. May I hear starting bids now?
And let me point out I didn't even single that one out for price. There are single rolls for > $100.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 04, 2020, 06:35:36 am
The correct term here is Roid Rage.It's 2020 goddamnit. They promised we'd have droid rage by now.
Post by: Reelya on March 04, 2020, 06:39:47 am
We have The Warriors now, but it's suburban housewives fighting over toilet paper.The correct term here is Roid Rage.It's 2020 goddamnit. They promised we'd have droid rage by now.
Post by: Imic on March 04, 2020, 06:41:26 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 04, 2020, 07:54:56 am
CAN YOU DIG these amazing deals on toilet paper?We have The Warriors now, but it's suburban housewives fighting over toilet paper.The correct term here is Roid Rage.It's 2020 goddamnit. They promised we'd have droid rage by now.
Post by: Akura on March 04, 2020, 06:02:40 pm
There was a fight over a roll of toilet paper, and one woman pulled a knife.
Was her opponent's response to claim that wasn't a knife, then pull out a bigger knife and say "this is a knife"?
Post by: Reelya on March 05, 2020, 06:29:15 am
Roid Rage 2: Diarrhea Boogaloo
Some other guy (in the same state) had to be tasered by cops because he was assaulting supermarket staff over a toilet paper disagreement.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/police-taser-man-after-fight-over-toilet-paper-breaks-out-in-big-w/news-story/53de5794a49274c44558651d6712df71
Post by: scriver on March 05, 2020, 06:34:59 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 05, 2020, 06:48:44 am
Well I guess Darwin would have wanted it this way...
Post by: delphonso on March 05, 2020, 07:01:27 am
Don't know about Coalboat, but things are starting to get back into the swing of things here. Expectations are to start work at the start of next week.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 05, 2020, 07:43:12 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 05, 2020, 07:57:13 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on March 05, 2020, 08:10:56 am
I got sent a corporate email denying that coronavirus was dangerous unless you are elderly. It seems the CDC's strategy is working! Remember: if you see coronavirus, just say "no".
Oh no... Jim Carrey's secret plan to turn Sonic into an anti-vaxxer worked.
Post by: King Zultan on March 05, 2020, 08:12:59 am
Remember: if you see coronavirus, just say "no"."Bad coronavirus, bad, don't make me take you to the vet and have you euthanized!"
Post by: Reelya on March 05, 2020, 08:16:54 am
Post by: scriver on March 05, 2020, 08:48:50 am
Remember: if you see coronavirus, just say "no"."Bad coronavirus, bad, don't make me take you to the vet and have you euthanized!"
Shove off you naughty Coronavirus, for you don't exist! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGN3f0mwUzw)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 05, 2020, 09:00:17 am
Post by: coalboat on March 05, 2020, 09:00:48 am
Oof. That's going to be rough.
Don't know about Coalboat, but things are starting to get back into the swing of things here. Expectations are to start work at the start of next week.
People are crowding metro to go to work again. With face masks though.
Post by: Iduno on March 05, 2020, 10:05:02 am
There was a fight over a roll of toilet paper, and one woman pulled a knife.
Was her opponent's response to claim that wasn't a knife, then pull out a bigger knife and say "this is a knife"?
That's not a knife, that's a spoon.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 05, 2020, 10:09:10 am
Don't think the death toll here couldn't break Spanish Flu. We're still only in the early ramp-up and containment is failed.
Post by: JoshuaFH on March 05, 2020, 10:25:13 am
I'm honestly hedging my bets a little, to have a little bit of reserve stores in case there's a run on the supermarkets, but not too much that I look like an idiot if it all blows over uneventfully.
Post by: McTraveller on March 05, 2020, 11:09:55 am
Post by: Teneb on March 05, 2020, 12:12:49 pm
I don't understand the fear... so much fear and anxiety...I mean, for the folks in the states it makes sense to be afraid and anxious... given how you need to pay to be tested and missing out on work means unemployment.
Post by: Frumple on March 05, 2020, 01:06:57 pm
While I live in an area where nobody is concerned about the corona virus, I did go out to buy some of that canned food. First time I've ever bought canned soup, doesn't look that good, but also a lot of canned fruit, which I'm more confident I'd stomach happily; I otherwise have always hated canned food, but I guess this isn't the time to complain.For what it's worth, canned soup is usually pretty okay. Not super great and usually pretty damn salty, but not terrible or anything. I eat cream of chicken fairly often, ferex, and it's usable and pretty tasty once you do stuff to it.
If you're worried, just... have a can before it's necessary or somethin', maybe have a few and fiddle with adding stuff to them to see if you can get something you like out of it.
Post by: Iduno on March 05, 2020, 01:10:54 pm
I don't understand the fear... so much fear and anxiety...I mean, for the folks in the states it makes sense to be afraid and anxious... given how you need to pay to be tested and missing out on work means unemployment.
Plus, some employers will hassle you and keep you from getting promoted if they find out you've been using the insurance (which is also shitty).
Edit:
I'm not saying classic Campbell's chicken soup is great. But it's basically just salt, water, salt, chicken stock, salt, and probably a bouillon. Whatever the hell they put in this "hearty" varieties makes my body scream "This isn't food!"
FTFY. Also, agreed on whatever ingredients are in canned soup. It tastes like "old", and the colors of all of the vegetables (?) is exaggerated. It doesn't help that the broth portion has more texture than the noodles or the vegetables (because neither of them has enough texture to be called squishy), and the chicken is unnaturally chewy.
I should stock up on rice, pasta, and some sort of sauce for them. Plus maybe some fresh meat and veg for a stew.
Post by: nenjin on March 05, 2020, 01:16:32 pm
I was raised on regular old Campbell's Chicken Noodle Soup.
Then they went and made these fancy, thick and hearty varieties of Beef and Chicken Noodle, by Campbells and Progresso.....
I don't know what they put in that shit, but it tastes awful.
Like, when I was sick back in December I was eating soup for a few days and had a couple cans of both....
There is this weird, almost fungal taste to both of them, to me. A musk. I had a can of it and was literally tasting that musk for hours and hours afterward. The smell of the stuff rising off the bowls in the sink later was enough to almost make me gag.
I'm not saying classic Campbell's chicken soup is great. But it's basically just water, salt, chicken stock and probably a bouillon. Whatever the hell they put in these "hearty" varieties makes my body scream "This isn't food!"
Post by: McTraveller on March 05, 2020, 01:53:23 pm
Post by: Sanctume on March 05, 2020, 03:09:19 pm
I only bought the hearty soup once because it was the only available thing in Costco--so I had a shit ton of them for a while.
Now those instant ramen with hot sauce will make any clogged nose back to healthy runny for a bit.
Post by: Reelya on March 05, 2020, 04:19:03 pm
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team
Also testing figures for the USA as of Feb 28 were that the USA has tested a whopping 459 whole people! Meanwhile, at that point, South Korea had conducted 65,000 tests, and it's reported that China has scaled up so they're capable of handling up to 1.5 million tests per week.
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/02/035218/americas-coronavirus-testing-lags-far-behind-south-korea-and-china
Post by: Frumple on March 05, 2020, 06:57:49 pm
Post by: Stench Guzman on March 05, 2020, 07:17:06 pm
I don't understand the fear... so much fear and anxiety...
The media is bordering on hysteria, which leads me to believe everything is going to be perfectly fine.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 05, 2020, 08:40:37 pm
Also testing figures for the USA as of Feb 28 were that the USA has tested a whopping 459 whole people! Meanwhile, at that point, South Korea had conducted 65,000 tests, and it's reported that China has scaled up so they're capable of handling up to 1.5 million tests per week.
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/02/035218/americas-coronavirus-testing-lags-far-behind-south-korea-and-china
Probably because the patient has to pay for it here.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 05, 2020, 09:10:10 pm
I am an American and that sounds stupid. We have to pay for tests? Shouldnt taxes going to hospitals be the paying indirectly? I probably could have phrased that betterAlso testing figures for the USA as of Feb 28 were that the USA has tested a whopping 459 whole people! Meanwhile, at that point, South Korea had conducted 65,000 tests, and it's reported that China has scaled up so they're capable of handling up to 1.5 million tests per week.
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/02/035218/americas-coronavirus-testing-lags-far-behind-south-korea-and-china
Probably because the patient has to pay for it here.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 05, 2020, 09:36:50 pm
I am an American and that sounds stupid. We have to pay for tests? Shouldnt taxes going to hospitals be the paying indirectly? I probably could have phrased that betterAlso testing figures for the USA as of Feb 28 were that the USA has tested a whopping 459 whole people! Meanwhile, at that point, South Korea had conducted 65,000 tests, and it's reported that China has scaled up so they're capable of handling up to 1.5 million tests per week.
https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/02/035218/americas-coronavirus-testing-lags-far-behind-south-korea-and-china
Probably because the patient has to pay for it here.
Because socialism is demonized irrationally in america, and apparently having a bloat of admin and middlemen somehow save you money.
Post by: coalboat on March 06, 2020, 12:55:22 am
Post by: Reelya on March 06, 2020, 02:29:29 am
Post by: Cthulhu on March 06, 2020, 02:30:30 am
A fractal hierarchy of dudes in suits, metrics are the entire bureacracy's collective fever dream so they're simultaneously infinitely malleable and infinitely unassailable, no individual can step in and say "this is bullshit," abstractions leaking like sieves, bullshit magnifying its way up the corporate ladder like mercury in fish, so at the VP/three-letter level they're completely divorced from anything resembling reality and just drone strike you with random nonsense demands to justify their salary. The American bureacracy is textbook Stalinism, metastasized from the state apparatus into basically every aspect of human life.
Governments are terrible at mostly everything (in theory I think a government should be better than anarchism at something like controlling a pandemic, but in practice...) but in the current framework government is a fixed quantity. Corporations are an extension of the government and have all the same problems so taking functions away from the de jure state does not reduce the level of government, only move it around. That's why ancaps are morons.
Weird situation right now where this post would've fit in the current line of discussion in the COVID thread and the Ameripol thread, but I'll leave it here.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 06, 2020, 08:14:49 am
Also LA:Huge marathon with 27,000 people from across the world, that’s A-OK!
Lot of dumb decisions going on here in the USA
Post by: Frumple on March 06, 2020, 08:24:41 am
Like, I think I remember some TV talking head say they expect at least 40% of the country to get infected before this is relatively over, and at this point I can believe it :-\
Post by: Iduno on March 06, 2020, 08:52:39 am
I am an American and that sounds stupid. We have to pay for tests? Shouldnt taxes going to hospitals be the paying indirectly? I probably could have phrased that better
Why would the government want to pay thousands of dollars apiece for tests that they know don't work right (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html)?
I agree with you, though. Public health is a public concern, and should be dealt with as such. If it's enough of a concern to require everyone to have insurance, they should be providing it. It would save a massive amount in having to track whether or not everyone has insurance at any given time.
On the whole our national response has been fucking stupid to the point it's also kneecapped any local attempts to be less stupid, yes, on top of some local stuff also being pretty stupid.
Even as a blanket statement, I'd have a hard time disagreeing with this.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 06, 2020, 08:55:00 am
What? Why are we using tests that don't work?I am an American and that sounds stupid. We have to pay for tests? Shouldnt taxes going to hospitals be the paying indirectly? I probably could have phrased that better
Why would the government want to pay thousands of dollars apiece for tests that they know don't work right (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html)?
I agree with you, though. Public health is a public concern, and should be dealt with as such. If it's enough of a concern to require everyone to have insurance, they should be providing it. It would save a massive amount in having to track whether or not everyone has insurance at any given time.
Post by: Reelya on March 06, 2020, 09:34:39 am
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve
Quote
Speed is critical in the response to COVID-19. So why has the United States been so slow in its attempt to develop reliable diagnostic tests and use them widely?
The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped testing kits to 57 countries. China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests since the epidemic began. The rollout of a CDC-designed test kit to state and local labs has become a fiasco because it contained a faulty reagent. Labs around the country eager to test more suspected cases—and test them faster—have been unable to do so. No commercial or state labs have the approval to use their own tests.
America had to have their own tests different to everyone else's. I guess that using the foreign tests would have been humiliating or something. However they completely dropped the ball and sent out broken test kits.
USA has tested very few people. 12 death implies about 360 detectable cases. But some deaths may be being improperly classified as influenza deaths.
Post by: Iduno on March 06, 2020, 10:07:56 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 06, 2020, 10:49:02 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 11:08:25 am
Post by: TamerVirus on March 06, 2020, 11:09:31 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 11:18:00 am
The fart of someone who recovered from coronavirus is an effective prophylactic, but they must be fresh farts.
Post by: Teneb on March 06, 2020, 11:33:20 am
No, it's frozen potato enema.My friend's aunt's cousin's mistress works at Corona and has confirmed this.
The fart of someone who recovered from coronavirus is an effective prophylactic, but they must be fresh farts.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 11:37:34 am
Post by: Iduno on March 06, 2020, 12:18:45 pm
Btw corona beer enemas make you catch the disease immediatedly. But drinking it is even worse because then you have to taste it :(
If there's one good thing about this virus, it's showing how woefully unprepared at least one country is for handling anything medical related at all, and forcing people to acknowledge that fact. If there are 2 good things, the other is that fewer people are drinking that pisswater. If you want a lager, get something Czech, or, in a pinch, Polish.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 12:33:53 pm
Post by: Jopax on March 06, 2020, 12:52:15 pm
In virus related news, today was a bit of a revelation on how bad this thing is impacting buisness. Company I work at is mainly exporting the products and a big portion of our international market comes from Italy. As it so happens, there's been a rather noticeable reduction in certain orders, so much so that there's talk going around of potentially shutting down the third shift for the time being as there'd be too much production and the warehouse would be clogged up fairly quickly.
Post by: Folly on March 06, 2020, 12:56:42 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 06, 2020, 01:07:23 pm
No, it's frozen potato enema.*Eyes bag of frozen french fries*
And they called me a philistine!
Post by: Teneb on March 06, 2020, 01:29:47 pm
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4 (https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4)"Touch face is bad. I shall now demonstrate."
I've always found people who lick their finger before turning a page kind of disgusting, though.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 01:37:36 pm
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4 (https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4)"Touch face is bad. I shall now demonstrate."
I've always found people who lick their finger before turning a page kind of disgusting, though.
I mean haven´t they read The Name of the Rose?
TBH back when I read paper I didnt understand it.
Now that you can get pretty much anything on a screen I understand it even less.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 06, 2020, 02:18:09 pm
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4 (https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4)*makes announcement about how you're not supposed to touch your face*
*touches face immediately after making the announcement*
Why?
Post by: Jopax on March 06, 2020, 02:24:52 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 06, 2020, 02:44:58 pm
I've always found people who lick their finger before turning a page kind of disgusting, though.
Yeah, but I keep getting papercuts on my tongue with the other method.
https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4 (https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DelightfulUnhappyAracari-mobile.mp4)*makes announcement about how you're not supposed to touch your face*
*touches face immediately after making the announcement*
Why?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Cthulhu on March 06, 2020, 04:00:50 pm
As for beer, I'm a big fan of sour beer. Victory Sour Monkey is great. Aside from that I mostly like dark malty beers, stouts and such. Outside of Headhunter I don't like any IPAs or similar hoppy beers.
Post by: Quarque on March 06, 2020, 04:30:32 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 06, 2020, 04:33:53 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 06, 2020, 04:53:25 pm
Right now they're only wanting to interact with people guranteed to not have the virus, but at some point in the epidemic the quarantine logic would reverse. You'll want to be surrounded by people who've already had the virus.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 06, 2020, 07:31:05 pm
[snip] but at some point in the epidemic the quarantine logic would reverse. You'll want to be surrounded by people who've already had the virus.
All indications are that it can be contracted multiple times and the prediction is it will be with us recurring like the common flu. (Remarkable cure or vaccine discovery aside, but that seems like a long shot at this point.)
Personally I'm anticipating getting it many times over the next few decades, assuming of course it doesn't kill me first.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 07:40:29 pm
Pretty sure it's not gonna be like that🤦🏻♂️
All indications are that it can be contracted multiple times and the prediction is it will be with us recurring like the common flu. (Remarkable cure or vaccine discovery aside, but that seems like a long shot at this point.)
Personally I'm anticipating getting it many times over the next few decades, assuming of course it doesn't kill me first.
No, "all indications" are not that it can be contracted multiple times, and it's not clear whether it will be recurrent or not. There is simply not enough information to make such blanket statements
Post by: Rolan7 on March 06, 2020, 08:00:08 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 06, 2020, 09:01:45 pm
Pretty sure it's not gonna be like thatPersonally I'm anticipating getting it many times over the next few decades, assuming of course it doesn't kill me first.
All indications are that it can be contracted multiple times and the prediction is it will be with us recurring like the common flu. (Remarkable cure or vaccine discovery aside, but that seems like a long shot at this point.)
🤦🏻♂️
No, "all indications" are not that it can be contracted multiple times, and it's not clear whether it will be recurrent or not. There is simply not enough information to make such blanket statements
I think a virus would have to mutate in a particular way or be powerful enough to overcome your immune system for your immune system not to fight it off.
Post by: Frumple on March 06, 2020, 09:05:31 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 06, 2020, 09:10:15 pm
Oh hey, at least two confirmed cases for AIPAC attendees. Other notables to that event includes like 2/3rds of the U.S. Congress :Vbernie's last laugh
Post by: feelotraveller on March 06, 2020, 09:29:15 pm
🤦🏻♂️
No, "all indications" are not that it can be contracted multiple times, and it's not clear whether it will be recurrent or not. There is simply not enough information to make such blanket statements
A few links for you (from a month to a week ago). Where is your evidence that reinfection doesn't happen? Sure it is not 'proven' yet but I think that there are enough reported cases that it warrants drawing this conclusion.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T)
https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/ (https://nypost.com/2020/02/19/whistleblower-doctors-say-coronavirus-reinfection-even-deadlier/)
https://www.zmescience.com/science/a-startling-number-of-coronavirus-patients-get-reinfected/ (https://www.zmescience.com/science/a-startling-number-of-coronavirus-patients-get-reinfected/)
Remember this is within weeks or perhaps at the outside months after initial infection, and not anything like a year or two.
What makes you think the disease is just going to go away of its own accord? Oh, that's right, the fart hypothesis...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 09:46:35 pm
The burden of proof is on you. And a couple of anecdotes don´t work as proof. Quit fearmongering. Quit spreading misinformation. And do your homework on what you just posted. If you had, you´d have realized why making such a blanket statement basing yourself on such flimsy information is a mistake.🤦🏻♂️
No, "all indications" are not that it can be contracted multiple times, and it's not clear whether it will be recurrent or not. There is simply not enough information to make such blanket statements
A few links for you (from a month to a week ago). Where is your evidence that reinfection doesn't happen? Sure it is not 'proven' yet but I think that there are enough reported cases that it warrants drawing this conclusion.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 06, 2020, 10:04:21 pm
There was also this lovely qualifier "(Remarkable cure or vaccine discovery aside, but that seems like a long shot at this point.)"
I don't need to 'prove' anything, I was making a prediction, and I'm hardly the first - indeed it was a counter-prediction to Reelya's implied one. As if anyone knows exactly how future will turn out. A couple of quick links, I'm sure you can find better if you want to educate yourself about the issue rather than persistently engage in ad hoc attacks. Misinformation indeed!
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/ (https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/)
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-coronavirus-mild-pandemic-how-it-could-end-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan-coronavirus-mild-pandemic-how-it-could-end-2020-2?op=1&r=US&IR=T)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2020, 10:15:41 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on March 06, 2020, 10:20:38 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 06, 2020, 10:47:41 pm
Also, from the third article:
Quote
The cases with reinfection of coronavirus were detected on People’s Hospital Nº 8 in Guandong. A total of 13 discharged patients tested positive again but didn’t show renewed symptoms, according to Li Yueping, director of the intensive care unit at the hospital.
The tests were done from anal swabs, a method not used much in other parts of China. But there’s a reason behind it: the virus was found in fecal samples in research done by Guangzhou Medical University, and since then hospitals in Guandong have started doing anal swab tests.
The 13 patients that tested positive are now under observation at the hospital, while new tests are being done to understand the reasons for the incidence. New controls and monitoring will also be implemented on discharged patients, who will be more closely checked on.
So according to that, the main gist of this story is that they started checking people's poop for the virus, and it's in there, so they're checking it out and have re-admitted those people to hospital for observation.
The headline of this article "A startling number of coronavirus patients get reinfected" is bullshit basically. What the article is about is "ok we cleared you but the virus seems to be in your poop as well, we better check this out". Unless "stage 2" of the re-infection is via your butt.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 06, 2020, 10:52:36 pm
We just don't know.
Post by: Reelya on March 06, 2020, 11:19:05 pm
Also Trump has best strategy for controlling coronavirus numbers:
Quote
President Trump, speaking at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said he would have preferred not to let the passengers disembark onto American soil. “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault,”
It's not clear if he means letting them off the ship, and into land quarantine will double the spread, or he's concerned the reported numbers may double. The "wasn't our fault" part is telling. His main concern is about being blamed.
At the moment, the news is saying the numbers for the ship are being reported separately to the US totals, so I suspect Trump really is more concerned here about that than he is about treating the people on the ship. They're going to test everyone else on the ship, 3500 people, while about 20 are known to have it already. That may well double the number of known cases in the US, if they're allowed to be quarantined on American soil, because that's more than the number of tests carried out on the mainland up to recently.
My guess here is Trump was told this information in a briefing (the likely number of cases on the ship and how letting them off the ship would affect the numbers reported for USA), and then blabbed it outright to the news media, and meanwhile his aides are smacking themselves in their faces with their palms.
Post by: Rolan7 on March 06, 2020, 11:43:46 pm
meanwhile his aides are smacking themselves in their faces with their palms.Ironically causing the number of infections to go up yet again...
Post by: feelotraveller on March 07, 2020, 01:28:13 am
For a more cynical but fairly balanced review of reinfection (focusing mainly on the case reported in Japan)
https://www.wired.com/story/did-a-woman-get-coronavirus-twice-scientists-are-skeptical/ (https://www.wired.com/story/did-a-woman-get-coronavirus-twice-scientists-are-skeptical/)
While it is too early to tell for sure (hence prediction) reports like these leave open the possibility that something is going on. Sure no guarantee but this is the novel route anyway: what is more prevalent is that reinfection happens either once the antibodies to the current strain of the virus have dissipated - I'm not aware that we have any real knowledge of the time period for covid19 - or when the virus mutates, which they do virulently (pun intended) in general - darwinian rules willing - but once again I am not aware the we have any real knowledge yet of how prone this particular strain is to mutation just that it is a feature common to viruses.
But it is definitely worth balancing the prevalent view that, she'll be right mate, I'll just hole up with some Campbell's chicken noodle and my chosen Belgian for a week or two and it will all blow over. Even with reinfection not occuring several waves of infection can be expected in any given geographical area as people who missed it the first time around get a second chance at the lottery as the virus returns from the outside.
And no I don't think that this is fear mongering but just a healthy dose of realism. The truth being the best medicine.
Post by: martinuzz on March 07, 2020, 10:06:26 am
Today the count is up to 188.
103 of those contracted the virus in Italy during ski holidays, 9 came back infected from other countries, 47 were infected locally through a diagnosed patient and for 29 patients it is yet unknown how and where they contracted the virus.
So far only 1 patient died, a 86 year old man.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 07, 2020, 10:11:53 am
Post by: Imic on March 07, 2020, 10:15:58 am
Post by: Frumple on March 07, 2020, 10:20:06 am
See, that's another thing. Why the hell are there so many cases without an observed vector? We've had a few cases in rural towns where the patient had never left the US and who doesn't know anybody who has, in addition to the isolation of rural living. It's doing me a concern that this can spread by some means we're not aware of.I mean, we're not fucking testing people, dude. There's no observed vector in a lot of cases because we're not so much dropping the ball as spiking it straight into the fucking dirt.
Beyond that this shit doesn't need an unaware means of spread, the damn thing has basically everything a virus could want to spread with short of like tiny fucking jetpacks and GPS assist or some shit.
Post by: martinuzz on March 07, 2020, 10:47:18 am
Even here, where everyone has healthcare insurance and testing is free, barely any testing has been done.
Official advise of the authorities so far has been to only come in for testing if you have symptoms AND also have been in an infected country, like Italy or China.
Which is understandable, since it's flu season, and everyone with a flu coming in for testing would seriously overtax the healthcare systems.
This will probably change though now that infection is spreading locally.
EDIT: haha. A GP put up a sign in his practice.
"To combat corona virus, eat 5 raw cloves of garlic every day.
It doesn't do jack shit against the virus, but it will keep everyone at a safe distance"
Post by: Footkerchief on March 07, 2020, 02:33:34 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on March 07, 2020, 02:49:34 pm
8 days have passed since our first confirmed infection in the Netherlands.
Today the count is up to 188.
103 of those contracted the virus in Italy during ski holidays, 9 came back infected from other countries, 47 were infected locally through a diagnosed patient and for 29 patients it is yet unknown how and where they contracted the virus.
So far only 1 patient died, a 86 year old man.
I guess it is way too early to tell which strain of the virus they have?
https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-scientists-identify-more-aggressive-coronavirus-strain-094957265.html (https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-scientists-identify-more-aggressive-coronavirus-strain-094957265.html)
Those who like their truth more massaged might prefer the UK version. ;)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2020/03/04/coronavirus-has-mutated-aggressive-disease-say-scientists/
I'm sure the US can wheel out their own bevy of professors to reiterate the message of the Leader of the Free World - 'nothing to see here, move right along...'
Post by: Folly on March 07, 2020, 03:01:12 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EShLuGFUcAA1jQo.jpg)
Post by: Folly on March 07, 2020, 04:06:07 pm
That's roughly 5% mortality rate, which is significantly higher than we were expecting. I'm assuming this is because we're not testing people until they get really sick, resulting in a lot of infected people walking around with few or no symptoms.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 07, 2020, 04:18:29 pm
Post by: Imic on March 07, 2020, 04:20:49 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 07, 2020, 04:26:14 pm
More likely because the debut was at nursing homes. Which have people who are both older and with comorbidities, which are more likely to have a bad outcome.It seems like this won't be an outlier, though - the nursing home pattern has also happened in Canada and Korea, as well as multiple times in the US.
Post by: Reelya on March 07, 2020, 05:40:19 pm
So the number of low infected people is unknown, but if you trust the 19 deaths statistic, it would be around 800 people. However there have been maybe 20,000 influenza deaths this season, so it's quite possible dozens of extra coronavirus deaths are hidden in that data too. Remember people were making that point about the Chinese deaths. So how much more likely is it to be true in America where you hardly test anyone?
Also, recent news is that an Australian doctor brought Coronavirus back from overseas to Melbourne then treated patients here. He'd been to the USA. So you got random carriers infecting people and exporting it now.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 07, 2020, 05:50:21 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 07, 2020, 06:17:33 pm
Let’s see if the government changes its time now that the virus is at its doorstep
Who am I kidding, they’ll just keep on saying ‘the risk to the public remains low’
Meanwhile, apparently the CDC has decided to throw their hands up in the Seattle area and say that the virus is now endemic there.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 07, 2020, 06:23:35 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 07, 2020, 06:26:00 pm
Quote
ACU assured that the patient did not make contact with President Trump or Vice President Mike Pence, and never attended the events in the main hall. However, the organization did not provide any other details about the patient or what events at the conference they attended.
Make sure not to mention where they actually went or people may panic and demand to be tested, and a rush of CPAC attendees to be tested would be a bad look for the the President.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 07, 2020, 06:29:20 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 07, 2020, 07:18:18 pm
Post by: Folly on March 07, 2020, 07:23:42 pm
We can only hope that some asymptomatic White House staffer is currently carrying the salvation of America in his lungs.
Trump IS within the most at-risk age group...but his very wonderful doctor says that Trump is the healthiest president ever, so he'll probably be fine.
Post by: delphonso on March 07, 2020, 07:38:38 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 08, 2020, 05:28:24 am
BTW: In Spain we had a number of smaller outbreaks that were more or less controlled... and then there was a huge one this week after a massive infection in a Roma Gypsy funeral, which was further compounded by the attendants refusing to quarantine themselves. Last news we have is that some have been forcefully quarantined in an apartment block, while a couple are still on the run.
Update: as they kept refusing to stay quarantined, the goverment ended up deploying the special forces (GAR) to the area
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 05:51:39 am
Here's a non-paywalled copy
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/world/donald-trump-didnt-know-people-died-from-the-flu-it-killed-his-grandfather/
Oh man the comedy gold never ends.
Quote
At the same news conference Friday where Trump appeared unaware of his grandfather's cause of death, he cited another family member - a "super-genius uncle," his grandfather's youngest son - as having given him the family genes to understand the science of the coronavirus outbreak.
"People are really surprised I understand this stuff," he said. "Every one of these doctors said, 'How do you know so much about this?' Maybe I have a natural ability."
I'd say he has a natural ability at lying.
As for the coronavirus, I have a theory that the numbers of deaths attributable to the virus are highly under-estimated, but they're hidden in the influenza deaths. But here's the catch: influenza deaths are also down because people are taking precautions against the coronavirus. So, what could well happen is this stuff festers until next winter, then you got a big breakout happening, since people won't stay in over-self-protection mode forever.
Post by: King Zultan on March 08, 2020, 05:55:11 am
I'd say he has a natural ability at lying.That's the super power of every politician, just some are more skilled with its use than others.
Post by: martinuzz on March 08, 2020, 05:58:51 am
The entire Lombardy region, and 14 provinces in the north have been locked down.
Travelling in and out of the quarantine regions is also forbidden.
The lockdown will last until at least the 3d of april.
All political parties, including the opposition unanimously decreed this has to be done, to protect the vulnerable south.Italy's economy is expected to come to a full stop this coming month.
Additionally, supermarkets will have shorter opening hours starting today, pubs and bars will be closed unless they can guarantuee a minimum distance of 1m between their customers, all schools, gyms, universities, movie theatres, musea, ski areas and sports stadiums are closed.
Weddings and funerals are also forbidden.
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 06:07:27 am
Just kidding, the idiots who only bought toilet paper will be wondering what boiled toilet paper tastes like.
Post by: martinuzz on March 08, 2020, 06:14:46 am
Even though the incubation time is about 14 days, and 14 days ago Italy started taking serious preventive measures, the disease spread keeps increasing exponentially.
Friday, 600 new cases were reported, saturday, 1100.
The leader of Italy's governing party PD, Nicola Zingoretti, has also been tested positive for the virus yesterday.
He left the signing of the quarantine decree to the minister of cultural affairs because of this.
Post by: scriver on March 08, 2020, 06:53:41 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 08, 2020, 07:26:17 am
Post by: McTraveller on March 08, 2020, 07:32:23 am
I guess at least here in civilization, panic has not yet struck.
Post by: martinuzz on March 08, 2020, 07:55:52 am
Patients and doctors who live in my province (North Brabant) are no longer allowed there if they have even the slightest cold-like symptoms (most cases in the Netherlands are in my province).
They also are nearly out of testing materials.
Apparently there is a worldwide shortage of basic rescources to make more testing materials.
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 10:28:10 am
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/leaders-fatal-error-in-us-covid19-response/news-story/78c969786f07faf556658bb18d537283
Quote
A sick Californian nurse made a desperate appeal for help.
She says the federal Centres for Disease Control had been unwilling, or unable, to test her for COVID-19. Her patients may have infected her. She may have infected others.
She had volunteered to help.
“I did this because I had all the recommended protective gear and training from my employer,” she wrote in an open letter. “I did this assuming that if something happened to me, of course, I too would be cared for.”
She was wrong.
The protective gear did not work. She is sick. But she’s not getting any treatment.
“I’m awaiting ‘permission’ from the federal government to allow for my testing, even after my physician and county health professional ordered it. I am a registered nurse, and I need to know if I am positive before going back to caring for patients.”
Quote
As of yesterday, the US had only identified some 300 cases. Only eight have so far recovered, and 17 have died.
The resulting death rate of 5.9 per cent is the world’s highest. But that is a statistical aberration: the numbers are simply incomplete.
Epidemiologists know the actual number of sufferers is likely to already be in the tens of thousands. They just can’t prove it.
That’s because the test kits tailored to identify this specific virus are unavailable. And the government-run CDC has been imposing strange conditions upon its distribution and use.
Quote
“The National CDC would not initiate testing,” the Californian nurse wrote. “They said they would not test me because if I were wearing the recommended protective equipment, then I wouldn’t have the coronavirus … What a ridiculous and uneducated response from the department that is in charge of our health in this country.”
So that's the thing. If a health worker was wearing the gear, they couldn't possibly be infected, so they have to keep coming into work and treating people, No Test For You. Fuck these assholes.
At what point does this stop being bungling and clearly become malice, where they're clearly throwing all the little people under the bus in an attempt to kill any news about this until after the elections?
Post by: coalboat on March 08, 2020, 11:19:53 am
edit:
When the epidemic began to spread in Wuhan, the situation was downplayed because there was the election for regional delegates(yes there is election even in China, very different from in US though).
Post by: McTraveller on March 08, 2020, 11:53:39 am
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 11:56:07 am
In the US, with the private health insurance, you need to go to specific hospitals that are in your health insurer's "network". Otherwise, you aren't covered by health insurance and have to pay the full fee. Maybe if they're rich they can afford to hospital-shop. Otherwise, they're up shit creek without a paddle.
This crisis is really exposing the flaws in the profit-gouging medical system of the USA. Note also, incidents such as Hurricane Katrina in the USA. In that, there was no public transport for evacuation, so there was profit-gouging of people wanting to escape from the hurricane.
Also note what was in the article I linked before, that the government's CDC is refusing to hand out the tests. It doesn't matter what hospital you go to, they require the test kits to be allocated by the government, and they have restrictive rules about who can be tested.
Post by: Iduno on March 08, 2020, 11:58:28 am
Toiletpaper barons are gonna make a killing
Yeah, but it's a shitty way to earn money.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 08, 2020, 12:00:40 pm
Is the course of care different if you are diagnosed with COVID-19 compared to any other lower respiratory infection? I mean, aside from the panic-inducing quarantine? This is an honest question here - is the treatment any different from any other severe influenza or pneumonia?There's a much higher likelihood of you needing ICU care if not outright mechanical ventilation to prevent a rapid descent to death, and there aren't effective antiviral therapies at this time.
Additionally, there's a host of asymptomatic and mild cases which are likely boosting total infection rate.
Post by: Frumple on March 08, 2020, 02:03:43 pm
So like. The course of care is similar? ICU, ventilation if it's bad enough, etc. But the rate of it being more or less necessary damn sure ain't, as near as we can tell so far.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 08, 2020, 02:19:45 pm
Is the course of care different if you are diagnosed with COVID-19 compared to any other lower respiratory infection? I mean, aside from the panic-inducing quarantine? This is an honest question here - is the treatment any different from any other severe influenza or pneumonia?https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4
Spoiler: Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different? (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on March 08, 2020, 02:49:06 pm
Post by: McTraveller on March 08, 2020, 02:49:34 pm
Or is this a manufactured situation where if you will potentially get employment-punished by doing such unless you get the "doctor's note" that you have a positive COVID-19 diagnosis?
*EDIT: excepting perhaps the statistics-gathering and letting other people know aspect.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 08, 2020, 02:53:41 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 08, 2020, 07:29:59 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 07:45:14 pm
I guess my question was really this: unless you are preemptively putting people in the ICU when they get COVID-19 versus say influenza, why does it matter if you get tested for it or not*? If you think you have it, can't you self-quarantine? That is - what did the nurse in that story want to have that she didn't have, that she could have only received with a positive COVID-19 result?
Or is this a manufactured situation where if you will potentially get employment-punished by doing such unless you get the "doctor's note" that you have a positive COVID-19 diagnosis?
*EDIT: excepting perhaps the statistics-gathering and letting other people know aspect.
People are dicks and they'll keep working with the symptoms, because it may not be Covid-19. You have to test. Here, we had a doctor who came back from the USA, had runny nose etc, and then still saw 70 patients. Turns out he had it, but didn't think it was bad enough to stop seeing patients. Now they have to contact all patients of this guy and those patients will have to contact everyone they've been in contact with. So we'll probably have an outbreak here in two weeks, because that guy didn't think being in the USA and getting sick was a reason to self-quarantine or get tested, and he just happened to be a medical professional who sick people trusted and came to.
The thing is, those lockdowns and testing are needed, because you also have unwitting carriers who think "surely it can't happen to me? It's just 'the sniffles' "
Post by: Frumple on March 08, 2020, 08:13:04 pm
Like. It can't be overstated at this point. The U.S. is massively fucking up response to covid-19.
Post by: Frumple on March 08, 2020, 08:23:08 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 08:27:26 pm
Quote
If you think you have it, can't you self-quarantine?
So, we're going to rely on people's self-diagnosis for a novel virus nobody has ever had before? Kinda sounds unlikely.
Also, it's winter and a lot of cold and flu are also going around. The economic costs of everyone who has the slight sniffles leaving work for 3 weeks would cripple everything, including the ability to treat people for the new virus. It's winter: a lot of people are sniffly. A lot of them need to be able to work if the system isn't going to collapse. They need to test.
Post by: McTraveller on March 08, 2020, 08:35:26 pm
If you are positive, are you going to panic even though statistically you will be fine, especially if you have no co-morbidity factors?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 08, 2020, 08:47:10 pm
it's winter and a lot of cold and flu are also going around.This is what I was commenting before: we probably shouldn´t work with a cold or a flu either. We do this here too (even though we DO get paid sick leave, thus there is no real financial reason in most cases) but I think it´s a perverse work ethos, a form of presenteeism, which messes your workflow and probably other people´s. I´m guilty of having done it myself in the past too.
I think this epidemic is an opportunity to try to get rid of this concept.
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 08:50:11 pm
Say this nurse lives with family members, including say an elderly relative. She can't "self quarantine" then, and needs to know whether this is a cold or the coronavirus, right now. Unless you assume everyone lives in a one-person cubicle.
Also, if everyone who could *possibly* have it self-quarantines then things start to collapse. It's not a realistic approach. Does a self-quarantined person still go to the grocery store? If they only have a cold they should probably go to the grocery store themselves, even if staying home, whereas someone with the coronavirus shouldn't do that, and shouldn't be in a house with other potentially uninfected people. The infected person needs to go into quarantine and care, and the non-infected individuals who live with them should self-quarantine until they're sure they don't have symptoms. Otherwise, the only way to stop it is that if everyone who has the slight sniffles self-quarantines and everyone who lives with them self-quarantines just in case. This isn't viable. We can't order lockdowns of every house where one or more people have a runny nose in winter. Testing is far cheaper than that.
The idea of just self quarantining if you are sick isn't realistic, it fails to take into account basic facts of who lives with whom.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 08, 2020, 08:57:56 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 08, 2020, 08:59:24 pm
McTraveller, i'm really baffled as to why you don't understand.
Say this nurse lives with family members, including say an elderly relative. She can't "self quarantine" then, and needs to know whether this is a cold or the coronavirus, right now. Unless you assume everyone lives in a one-person cubicle.
Also, if everyone who could *possibly* have it self-quarantines then things start to collapse. It's not a realistic approach. Does a self-quarantined person still go to the grocery store? If they only have a cold they should probably go to the grocery store themselves, even if staying home, whereas someone with the coronavirus shouldn't do that, and shouldn't be in a house with other potentially uninfected people. The infected person needs to go into quarantine and care, and the non-infected individuals who live with them should self-quarantine until they're sure they don't have symptoms. Otherwise, the only way to stop it is that if everyone who has the slight sniffles self-quarantines and everyone who lives with them self-quarantines just in case. This isn't viable.
The idea of just self quarantining if you are sick isn't realistic, it fails to take into account basic facts of who lives with whom.
For reference: It´s being done in Europe.
Also for reference: A friend of mine fell with the swine flu epidemic of 2009 and she was quarantined even though she lived with her parents. She had to stay in her room except for going to the toilet (with a mask and gloves, no further details given) and they cleaned it afterwards with bleach.
There's also no guarantee you'll be fine. Every age group other than 0-10 has had deaths and hospitalization, and at a far higher rate than the flu. It's just that you're hideously likely to die if you're elderly.You´re all a bunch of kittens.
Post by: Frumple on March 08, 2020, 09:04:57 pm
Post by: McTraveller on March 08, 2020, 09:06:58 pm
I mean what do you do differently if you think you have a cold versus influenza? I know my household doesn't do anything differently. It's only if we start to have dramatically deteriorating symptoms do we seek additional treatment (and we do have "good" insurance).
(Preview check: seems like others have kind of said similar things).
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 08, 2020, 09:08:16 pm
Man, it turns out your country aggressively fucking up pandemic response to something several times deadlier than the flu makes you meow a bit, who knew :P
Nobody actually knows how deadly this shit is (this is not just me btw, this is the WHO position after you appretiate the nuances). But it doesn´t seem as bad as you´re making it out to be. You´ll be fine.
You´re supposed to quarantine influenza too :P
I mean what do you do differently if you think you have a cold versus influenza?
Post by: Frumple on March 08, 2020, 09:13:01 pm
I mean, I probably will be fine. I'm in my thirties with mild asthma at most. Lot of folks around me are in their 60-70s or older with pre-existing respiratory conditions. Scusey if me being probably okay isn't actually comforting ::)Man, it turns out your country aggressively fucking up pandemic response to something several times deadlier than the flu makes you meow a bit, who knew :P
Nobody actually knows how deadly this shit is (this is not just me btw, this is the WHO position after you appretiate the nuances). But it doesn´t seem as bad as you´re making it out to be. You´ll be fine.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 08, 2020, 09:14:10 pm
What a bunch of sheep, am I right?
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2020, 09:16:39 pm
Quote
President Trump interrupted a Friday press conference on the 2019 novel coronavirus to ask a Fox News reporter whether his town hall show on Fox on Thursday night had good ratings. In a rambling briefing that bordered on bizarre, Trump also said coronavirus testing kits were almost as “perfect” as his infamous phone call with the Ukrainian president and he didn’t want infected cruise ship passengers to come ashore in California because it would increase the U.S. tally of COVID-19 cases. “I like the numbers being where they are. I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship,” he said.
During the tour of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention headquarters, Trump was asked by a reporter what measures he was considering to help offset the widespread economic and social impacts of the crisis. The president responded by saying the seasonal flu was worse with 36,000 deaths in the U.S. last year, compared to 240 confirmed cases of COVID-19. “When I first heard this I was shocked,” he said. “As of the time I left the plane with you we had 240 cases, that’s at least what was on a very fine network known as Fox News, don’t you love it? That’s what I happened to be watching and, how was the show last night? Did it get good ratings by the way?” he asked as he turned to a Fox reporter. “I don’t know,” the reporter responded. “Oh really, I heard it broke all ratings records, but maybe that’s wrong,” he continued. “But what happened if you look at the number, by the time we left, it was 240 cases and 11 deaths. That’s what it has been. Now, you look throughout the world and other countries—South Korea, Italy and particularly China, have many.”
This was a weird press conference by the sounds of things. Is it just me or is Trump gradually unraveling here. I don't recall if he was quite this disjointed back in 2016.
However, as for the economic impact of everyone staying home if they have the flu - just look at the economic impact of people holing up because of this new virus, and that's basically the same thing that would happen to the economy if people en-masse stayed home if they have minor ailments.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 08, 2020, 09:20:00 pm
Most of them will also be OK. Chill. Don´t panic. Wash your hands.I mean, I probably will be fine. I'm in my thirties with mild asthma at most. Lot of folks around me are in their 60-70s or older with pre-existing respiratory conditions. Scusey if me being probably okay isn't actually comforting ::)Man, it turns out your country aggressively fucking up pandemic response to something several times deadlier than the flu makes you meow a bit, who knew :P
Nobody actually knows how deadly this shit is (this is not just me btw, this is the WHO position after you appretiate the nuances). But it doesn´t seem as bad as you´re making it out to be. You´ll be fine.
ChairmanPoo is right, I'm going to take advantage of the fools and book one of those 5-star resorts that are super cheap right now.I´d actually suggest not falling for shallow alarmism but do your thing.
What a bunch of sheep, am I right?
Heeeey I have an idea. I happen to own a countryhouse in an isolated valley near the Pyrenees. Should get a makeover TBH but it´s liveable, and has running water. I could rent it out to you for cheap if you promise to feed my dog. You could bunker there for the end of the world. It´s large and has three storeys so you could conceivably bring along the rest of the bay12 kitten litter with you :P
Post by: TamerVirus on March 08, 2020, 09:30:57 pm
I happen to own a countryhouse in an isolated valley near the Pyrenees. It´s large and has three storeysLook at Mr. Moneybags over here :P
Post by: coalboat on March 08, 2020, 09:36:36 pm
ChairmanPoo is right, I'm going to take advantage of the fools and book one of those 5-star resorts that are super cheap right now.
What a bunch of sheep, am I right?
Not a bad idea. The safest place is where is reclusive and away from people.
Do people still remember Huanan Seafood Market, the presumed origin of the disease? The whole place was sterilixed and quarantined after the disease broke out. And a few days ago, a family of four were discovered having been living in the emptied market the whole time, for 43 days...
They all have no symptoms and are tested negative. They didn't wear mask or any protective gears because they didn't have. What kept them from the virus was being away from people, since this market is the place in the whole city that absolutely no one wants to step in. Even if there is virus on the floor, they die off if they find no host. And if you never touch face with unwashed hand and always cook the food and water thoroughly, there is little chance that the virus can get to you.
The family are still transferred to quarantine now though.
Post by: Ulfarr on March 09, 2020, 03:25:56 am
Post by: delphonso on March 09, 2020, 05:05:02 am
Post by: Imic on March 09, 2020, 06:37:47 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 06:40:56 am
Post by: delphonso on March 09, 2020, 06:41:31 am
Post by: Imic on March 09, 2020, 06:45:47 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 06:46:09 am
That was a sarcastic post, sorry if that wasn't clear everyone.i thought it was clear, which is new, I’m not usually the one who detects sarcasm. Detecting sarcasm now means I am learning
Post by: Imic on March 09, 2020, 06:48:09 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 07:32:05 am
(https://media1.tenor.com/images/145e9bd09734fa57433b7a53485fe07c/tenor.gif?itemid=13956209)what is this gif representing?
Post by: Egan_BW on March 09, 2020, 07:40:54 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 09, 2020, 07:42:53 am
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 09:16:51 am
While it is too early to tell for sure (hence prediction) reports like these leave open the possibility that something is going on. Sure no guarantee but this is the novel route anyway: what is more prevalent is that reinfection happens either once the antibodies to the current strain of the virus have dissipated - I'm not aware that we have any real knowledge of the time period for covid19 - or when the virus mutates, which they do virulently (pun intended) in general - darwinian rules willing - but once again I am not aware the we have any real knowledge yet of how prone this particular strain is to mutation just that it is a feature common to viruses.
You haven't taken like, a lot of biology classes, have you?
https://twitter.com/mslopatto/status/1236321363498921985?s=19 (https://twitter.com/mslopatto/status/1236321363498921985?s=19)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EShLuGFUcAA1jQo.jpg)
Those little shits are apparently smart enough already. Excellent work, children.
At what point does this stop being bungling and clearly become malice, where they're clearly throwing all the little people under the bus in an attempt to kill any news about this until after the elections?
Nope. That's the normal state of the US. She's a worker, and therefore deserves to die, because protecting people from dying costs money.
I guess my question was really this: unless you are preemptively putting people in the ICU when they get COVID-19 versus say influenza, why does it matter if you get tested for it or not*? If you think you have it, can't you self-quarantine? That is - what did the nurse in that story want to have that she didn't have, that she could have only received with a positive COVID-19 result?
Or is this a manufactured situation where if you will potentially get employment-punished by doing such unless you get the "doctor's note" that you have a positive COVID-19 diagnosis?
*EDIT: excepting perhaps the statistics-gathering and letting other people know aspect.
People are dicks and they'll keep working with the symptoms, because it may not be Covid-19. You have to test. Here, we had a doctor who came back from the USA, had runny nose etc, and then still saw 70 patients. Turns out he had it, but didn't think it was bad enough to stop seeing patients. Now they have to contact all patients of this guy and those patients will have to contact everyone they've been in contact with. So we'll probably have an outbreak here in two weeks, because that guy didn't think being in the USA and getting sick was a reason to self-quarantine or get tested, and he just happened to be a medical professional who sick people trusted and came to.
The thing is, those lockdowns and testing are needed, because you also have unwitting carriers who think "surely it can't happen to me? It's just 'the sniffles' "
You also have the issue of being fired or being held responsible for missing work, even if you have a good reason not to be there. Many employers like to punish employees for being sick, because the employer makes less money when employees are sick. This brilliant plan does cause a lot of other people to get sick, but unfettered capitalism isn't smart.
Like. It can't be overstated at this point. The U.S. is massively fucking up response to covid-19.
Agreed, but also to the possibility of people being sick to begin with.
Edit: Haha, my shitty workplace is advising people to use an alcohol-based sanitizer to kill the virus, because they don't know/don't care about the difference between viruses and bacteria.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 09, 2020, 10:08:11 am
It's a bloodbath today for the global stock market
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 10:23:46 am
Not only stock markets are freaking out over Coronavirus, they now also have the Saudis getting into a pissing contest with the Russians over oil pricing.
It's a bloodbath today for the global stock market
Man, it's a good thing it's only temporary, and we aren't already ripe for a recession.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 09, 2020, 10:28:17 am
Edit: Haha, my shitty workplace is advising people to use an alcohol-based sanitizer to kill the virus, because they don't know/don't care about the difference between viruses and bacteria.
no, it´s actually shown to be effective against viruses.
Now, I don´t think there is experimental data concerning covid19, but it seems reasonable to assume it works, at least reasonable enough for the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/guidance-prevent-spread.html
Post by: martinuzz on March 09, 2020, 11:01:55 am
Not only stock markets are freaking out over Coronavirus, they now also have the Saudis getting into a pissing contest with the Russians over oil pricing.For the first time since 2008, Wall Street shut down today, if only for 15 minutes.
It's a bloodbath today for the global stock market
Post by: nenjin on March 09, 2020, 11:34:36 am
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 11:55:10 am
I always enjoy it when my friends talk about the superiority of free market capitalism and "listening to the market" and then days like this happen.
No, when you die from communism (or any other economic system), it's the fault of that system. If you die from capitalism, it's your fault for being bad at capitalism.
Or because "the market" said more people need to be sacrificed to the volcano god, or whatever.
Post by: Egan_BW on March 09, 2020, 12:06:15 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 09, 2020, 12:08:54 pm
Not only stock markets are freaking out over Coronavirus, they now also have the Saudis getting into a pissing contest with the Russians over oil pricing.
It's a bloodbath today for the global stock market
There was a Trump supporter on a Slashdot comment thread who mentioned that. Someone was criticizing Trump over the crisis response with a post titled "thanks Trump" and they responded with a post titled "thanks Opec", pointing out the oil price war as if that's a contributor.
Obviously, it's not a contributor to the problem. Cheaper oil is good for the economy, the same as a rate drop. It's a compensatory response to the economic crisis, not a contributing factor.
I always enjoy it when my friends talk about the superiority of free market capitalism and "listening to the market" and then days like this happen.
No, when you die from communism (or any other economic system), it's the fault of that system. If you die from capitalism, it's your fault for being bad at capitalism.
Or because "the market" said more people need to be sacrificed to the volcano god, or whatever.
The market is actually correct in this instance. It's rats fleeing a sinking ship. Heed the signs.
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 12:29:21 pm
Post by: Akura on March 09, 2020, 12:55:59 pm
Are there any B12er's with the virus already, or am I going to be the first?
Post by: TamerVirus on March 09, 2020, 01:00:49 pm
This is until he decides to activate his emergency Manhattan Coronavirus plan
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wuyWkNK0-yo/hqdefault.jpg)
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 01:18:14 pm
At least Cuomo seems to be on top of things (actually testing people for one).
This is until he decides to activate his emergency Manhattan Coronavirus plan
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wuyWkNK0-yo/hqdefault.jpg)
I don't know. It seems like a better location than LA, but would the story be told as well there?
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 01:34:32 pm
At least Cuomo seems to be on top of things (actually testing people for one).i can’t tell if this is satire or not
This is until he decides to activate his emergency Manhattan Coronavirus plan
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wuyWkNK0-yo/hqdefault.jpg)
Post by: Sanctume on March 09, 2020, 02:18:22 pm
That's probably one way to separate the populations.
Ahh, it's called Colony (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_(TV_series))
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on March 09, 2020, 02:48:27 pm
Are there any B12er's with the virus already, or am I going to be the first?I had some sniffles and a slight temperature rise for half a day last week so I probably already had it.
EDIT: There are now protocols in place in our healthcare system, specifying 3 phases.
Phase 1: up to 2000 people get infected.
On average, 10% of all corona cases need hospitalization.
Total capacity of quaraintainable single patient rooms in the whole country: about 200.
When there are more than 2000 people infected nationwide, these spaces will be used up.
Phase 2: up to about 10000 infections.
When the quarantine rooms are full, new patients will need to be admitted to 'normal' IC wards, and corona patients will share rooms.
There are about 1150 IC beds in total in our country, of which about 70% is always filled already by non-corona patients.
All plannable, non emergency medical care will be postponed, non-critical regular patients will be released from hospital to make room for corona patients.
Medical staff will be redirected from their specialist jobs to IC care.
Phase 3: More than 10000 infections.
This phase is also called 'wartime phase', as the same priority rules will apply as apply to field medics during wartime.
Only those patients whose survival odds are deemed reasonable will be admitted to IC.
This means elderly over 80, cancer patients with bad prognosis, patients that required prolonged reanimation and severe traffic trauma victims will no longer be treated (except for palliative sedation or perhaps euthanasia) in favour of corona patients that have a good chance of survival.
Health authorities do not believe phase 3 will ever be needed though.
Let's hope so, because I cannot imagine how terrible it must be for doctors to have to choose who will live and who must die.
With 56 new cases today, total number of infected is up to 321.
One more elderly person died, bringing the death toll to 4
Post by: nenjin on March 09, 2020, 03:14:48 pm
Quote
Let's hope so, because I cannot imagine how terrible it must be for doctors to have to choose who will live and who must die.
Yeah, this decision is typically left up to hospital administrators. :|
Post by: martinuzz on March 09, 2020, 03:18:50 pm
Diagnosis is required (except in the case of people over 80 years old) to select who is going to get hospital care and who isn't, so it will be up to the doctors.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 09, 2020, 03:21:31 pm
Post by: Imic on March 09, 2020, 03:22:13 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Quarque on March 09, 2020, 03:26:22 pm
You don't know that if you haven't been tested.. it's even still unlikely at this stage, given how low the number of infected people is as of today.Are there any B12er's with the virus already, or am I going to be the first?I had some sniffles and a slight temperature rise for half a day last week so I probably already had it.
Post by: martinuzz on March 09, 2020, 03:27:13 pm
Today he adressed the nation, asking people to stop shaking hands.
At the end of the speech, he shook hands with our healthcare authority director.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 09, 2020, 03:29:37 pm
Parts of Italy seem to be at that 'war-time' triage point already from what I've read.
Italy shmitaly. Let's talk about how the Canary Islands aren't part of Spain again. :P
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 03:35:07 pm
Our prime minister is a dumbfuck.
Today he adressed the nation, asking people to stop shaking hands.
At the end of the speech, he shook hands with our healthcare authority director.
See, in the US people are somewhat happy to learn the Zodiac Killer shook hands with a person with Coronavirus. Our leaders getting sick means someone might care about the problem enough to do something about it.
Post by: martinuzz on March 09, 2020, 03:36:52 pm
I was only half-serious.You don't know that if you haven't been tested.. it's even still unlikely at this stage, given how low the number of infected people is as of today.Are there any B12er's with the virus already, or am I going to be the first?I had some sniffles and a slight temperature rise for half a day last week so I probably already had it.
Let's just say that there is a possibility that my (and with me a LOT of my fellow Dutchies') flu-like symptoms were actually mild expression of corona.
No one knows, because no testing was done except for those folks who had travelled to risk areas.
There is a doctor who contracted the virus during ski vacation in Italy, he was only slightly sick for half a day and went back to skiing without even knowing he had the virus.
He was tested positive after returning home, because he insisted he be tested even though he no longer had symptoms, to protect his patients.
EDIT
Meanwhile in my province today, about 10000 children did not attend school, after health authorities asked children and teachers on primary schools that have even the mildest of symptoms to stay at home.
As a result, many parents also did not go to work, since they had to stay at home and watch the children.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 09, 2020, 03:53:36 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 09, 2020, 04:13:28 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 09, 2020, 04:21:25 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 04:29:22 pm
Dammit Mario, you've bought the plague to the Mushroom Kingdom!a spin-off of a Mario game where you play as a character to get rid of the plague Mario unknowing.y brought to the Mushroom Kingdom sounds fun. A likely candidate for the player character might be Dr. E. Gadd
Post by: Folly on March 09, 2020, 04:56:34 pm
Let's hope so, because I cannot imagine how terrible it must be for doctors to have to choose who will live and who must die.
I would imagine the doctors feel about it much like anyone else doing any other job.
Post by: Iduno on March 09, 2020, 05:41:22 pm
It doesn't sound like it's going to get better. (https://twitter.com/julialindau/status/1235714275752267776) And, for once, I will suggest reading the comments.
Post by: Frumple on March 09, 2020, 05:57:37 pm
I mean, that obviously seems like a prompt for a shovel knight crossover starring Plague Knight.Dammit Mario, you've bought the plague to the Mushroom Kingdom!a spin-off of a Mario game where you play as a character to get rid of the plague Mario unknowing.y brought to the Mushroom Kingdom sounds fun. A likely candidate for the player character might be Dr. E. Gadd
Alternatively a darkest dungeon one with the plague doctor. In any case you need the beak if you're going to be doing that.
Post by: martinuzz on March 09, 2020, 06:11:49 pm
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 09, 2020, 06:22:04 pm
Meet new people! A real breathtaking experience!
Call now!
1-800-COVID19
*offer not valid in the United States
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 09, 2020, 06:22:11 pm
Hmmm, thinking about this 3 phase protocol for a while, it might be a good idea for me to try and get corona ASAP and infect as many of my good friends and relatives fast as possible, while there are still good hospital spots available.I'm onto you, Rick. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbcs-rick-santelli-suggests-giving-everyone-coronavirus-to-spare-the-economy-2020-03-05?mod=home-page)
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 07:36:20 pm
question, how does this spare the economy? It makes no sense to meHmmm, thinking about this 3 phase protocol for a while, it might be a good idea for me to try and get corona ASAP and infect as many of my good friends and relatives fast as possible, while there are still good hospital spots available.I'm onto you, Rick. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cnbcs-rick-santelli-suggests-giving-everyone-coronavirus-to-spare-the-economy-2020-03-05?mod=home-page)
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Post by: ZBridges on March 09, 2020, 07:48:51 pm
I imagine we'll be seeing a lot more of this as the spread of the virus gets closer to being a pandemic.
Post by: Teneb on March 09, 2020, 08:03:51 pm
Mamma mia! Molto schifo! Mi son strappato i peli del cazzo.You were the scelto! It was said that you would destroy the Corona, not drink it! Bring balance to the peninsula... not leave it in plague! You were my fratello Italy! I loved you!
I am possibly sorry
Post by: Max™ on March 10, 2020, 12:34:58 am
Mother-in-law needed help with her phone, wanted me to see if I could find a back up password for her facebook she accidentally deleted or some shit. I haven't touched facebook in half a decade, I use phones as cameras with extra bullshit I ignore... I'm not going to be the most helpful tech support to begin with, but naturally that wasn't the worst part.
For some reason she was over at a neighbors house playing with their new baby and kids, said neighbor is apparently a vegan with "meat allergies" and a nasty infection of anti-vax brainrot, yet for some reason after she gets back from there and asks me to touch her phone she's surprised when I refuse to get closer than a few feet from it. I don't need to incubate something, wind up recovering fine, and infect everyone else, kthxbai, going upstairs now, wash your hands more.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 10, 2020, 12:44:37 am
Post by: coalboat on March 10, 2020, 01:11:35 am
Post by: Rolan7 on March 10, 2020, 01:22:50 am
Post by: Laterigrade on March 10, 2020, 01:35:31 am
I was going to make a joke about how Martinuzz is dead and you’re sending a message from beyond the grave in the hopes of someone noticing your secret code which details the truth of the afterlife and the eternal torture of hell therin, but then there were ninjas, and I coukdn’t figure out a good joke, so instead here’s a highland cow.Hell is empty, and all the ninjas are here.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Imic on March 10, 2020, 05:26:59 am
Post by: delphonso on March 10, 2020, 05:28:33 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 10, 2020, 08:03:19 am
I wonder if that's just rhetorics. Tbh I think he used up 99% of all available tests on himself.
Post by: Reelya on March 10, 2020, 08:28:16 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 10, 2020, 08:59:19 am
It is entirely possible that he really isn't being tested, especially given the chop job he worked on the White House medical staff. Try to imagine Donald Trump dutifully obeying inconvenient orders from a doctor that are any more complex than "take these pills, but not all at the same time".
Post by: martinuzz on March 10, 2020, 09:13:42 am
Post by: Iduno on March 10, 2020, 09:20:38 am
To be both a germaphobe AND eat McDonalds you have to have less brain cells than your average hamburger.
He thinks that because they're consistent, that they are consistently good. Despite having eaten the "food" there. It's food made by people who are underpaid, and yelled at all of the time. You getting sick makes their lives easier.
Post by: martinuzz on March 10, 2020, 09:24:23 am
His idea of effective containment is closing the borders...Well at least that makes sense since corona is produced in Mexico
Post by: coalboat on March 10, 2020, 12:05:43 pm
Post by: scriver on March 10, 2020, 12:18:03 pm
Post by: nenjin on March 10, 2020, 12:24:04 pm
Comforting except for the fact that there is a shortage of test kits. :|
Post by: Frumple on March 10, 2020, 12:27:09 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 10, 2020, 12:31:40 pm
It's nice If you have insurance, anyway. Any news on if the obscene testing costs for the U.S. tests have gone down or not?
They ran out of tests, so they will charge you less when you go in for testing. Obviously they'll still charge you, because it's your fault they didn't tell you they ran out, but it will be less than if they had a test to administer.
Also, hoarding:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: feelotraveller on March 10, 2020, 03:57:33 pm
Phone is an often neglected hygiene hazard. So are wallet and keys.
Cash. Seriously. Recommendation is to pay electronically when/wherever possible.
(For the deniers and tobacco lobbyists: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cash-could-spread-coronavirus-warns-world-health-organization-2020-3?op=1&r=US&IR=T (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/cash-could-spread-coronavirus-warns-world-health-organization-2020-3?op=1&r=US&IR=T))
Post by: nenjin on March 10, 2020, 04:02:11 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on March 10, 2020, 04:09:51 pm
Additionally I'm not sure I agree with the halfsies, in certain cultures/geographies 'bumming a drag' is pretty par for the course, complete with saliva transfer.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 10, 2020, 04:49:50 pm
Post by: Max™ on March 10, 2020, 06:43:56 pm
While I actually do know someone with a meat allergy, anti-vax stances are something I don't support. :(Being an anti-vax moron makes me suspect she's lying about meat allergies to be a vegan snowflake on top of it, and none of those things makes me think casual visits with her children are smart during any sort of outbreak, but here we are.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 10, 2020, 07:12:36 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 10, 2020, 07:31:29 pm
Alpha-gal syndrome (https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/alpha-gal-syndrome/symptoms-causes/syc-20428608)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 10, 2020, 07:33:01 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on March 10, 2020, 07:42:50 pm
Remember that it is acceptable to wipe down most phones with hand sani/high proof alcohol.
Quote
Bleach, vinegar, alcohol, and most harsh disinfectant chemicals can clean the sides and back of an Android phone or iPhone, but those chemicals need to stay far away from the glass front of your phone (and glass back if you have one), as they will eat away at the oleophobic coating that your phone uses to help fight fingerprint smudges.https://www.androidcentral.com/how-clean-and-disinfect-your-android-smartphone
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 10, 2020, 09:41:04 pm
So that's why my phone is all smudged. :3
Post by: Max™ on March 10, 2020, 10:59:14 pm
Allergies to meat are real, but allergies to meat as claimed by an anti-vaxxer is an entirely different story.Plus, red meat avoidance =/= full blown veganism, so it feels like someone embarrassed about how cruel forcing veganism on children really is and trying to justify it by claiming a general "meat allergy" to me. Were it not for the obvious ignorance on display as an antivax shithead I may not jump to that conclusion, but as it stands, no, I'm not prepared to give any benefit of any doubt to anybody doing that to kids.
Post by: Reelya on March 11, 2020, 03:29:56 am
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
The rate of growth is about 1.33 per day averaged over the last 8 days, or 1.25 per day averaged over the last 20 days. Somewhere in the middle of that works out as roughly the number of cases increasing by a factor of 10 every 10 days. At the existing rate, 3 weeks from now the USA would have 100,000 cases. Expect things to get fucked over in the USA real soon either one way or another.
People fail to take into account exponential growth. Number of reported cases currently doubling every 2.5 days. Hopefully that's more of an artifact of delayed testing than rapid spread, however time will tell if the growth rate of cases slows soon or not.
Post by: scriver on March 11, 2020, 03:33:52 am
Post by: ZBridges on March 11, 2020, 03:38:20 am
Post by: Max™ on March 11, 2020, 04:14:27 am
Next week we shouldn't be surprised to see 10,100.
The week after it might be over 100k.
Unfortunately there is no way that 1,010 number is accurate, and since we've been totally ignoring it officially we have no way of knowing just how badly an underestimate it is, between asymptomatic carriers, incubation periods, and simple inability to get enough tests out to enough locations... your worst case guess is as good as literally anybody else's would be.
Post by: Reelya on March 11, 2020, 04:20:46 am
For clarification, does 1.30 means a growth of 30% a day or 130% a day?It means exponential increase with a base of 1.3. So tomorrow's result would be 1.3 times today's result. Take 1.3n and that's the multiple n-days ahead.
I don't suppose it's possible that some of the increase in cases could be due to recently expanded testing?
Sure, but I'm not trying to unravel that. This is just the current projection on confirmed cases unless they start to exhaust the pool of people who need testing but aren't getting it. At rates for the last 8 days that's actually a 1.33 multiple per day. the lower 1.25 is for the last 20 days. So, assuming 1.25 per day increase is already making concessions the the rate should drop off from the 1.33 rate at the moment. It might not drop off at all, maybe it will continue to accelerate. After all, there was a 1.4 times increase in the most recent day.
So, assuming a 1.25 factor increase for confirmed cases per day for the near future is actually a reasonable guess, and may even understate the increase in the next week or so.
Post by: Max™ on March 11, 2020, 04:31:37 am
Unless I'm mistaking what the 1.3 number was, which is possible, refreshing various pages and popping in and out.
Post by: Reelya on March 11, 2020, 04:49:30 am
The 1.3 is just the rate at which new infections are discovered, per day.
The 2.4 is the number of new people who will be infected by a currently infected person across the span of their infection. How that relates to the rate of infection per day depends on the average time between getting the disease and passing it on. So, it could be a lot or a little, depending on the average "generation time" of one infection to the next.
So, if you have 1 person and the average generation time is 1-2 weeks, 10 days, then every 10 days the number of "active" infections would be times 2.4. That means the rate of spread every 30 days would be 13 times greater. So, in 90 days a single spreader will have created 2641 active spreaders. And that doesn't count the intermediate people, just the current crop.
You can then use a formula, "partial sum of a geometric series" to give you the answer of the total number of infected. From (1 - 2.4n)/(1-2.4), then after 90 days an unchecked single spreader would have created 4528 victims: 1886 no longer infectious ones along with the 2641 currently infectious victims.
So we can now work out what that would imply for the "daily spreading rate". 4528(1/90). That would be very close to a 1.1 daily increase. Or roughly weekly doubling. So what might be happening is the actual infection rate is doubling every week, but the confirmed cases are playing catch-up with that, so they're increasing much faster.
Post by: Bumber on March 11, 2020, 05:02:22 am
the "fingers-in-ears, hum loudly til it goes away" method of containment and prevention.
Is that better or worse than the "lick your finger, turn the page" method?
Post by: Max™ on March 11, 2020, 07:30:49 am
Who uses those internets made out of trees anymore though?the "fingers-in-ears, hum loudly til it goes away" method of containment and prevention.
Is that better or worse than the "lick your finger, turn the page" method?
Post by: Iduno on March 11, 2020, 08:14:33 am
Remember that it is acceptable to wipe down most phones with hand sani/high proof alcohol.
Forget the phone, and just give me the high-proof. I'll entertain myself.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 11, 2020, 10:18:26 am
It got cancelled because of Coronavirus
Post by: nenjin on March 11, 2020, 10:44:58 am
I get it. Advertisers don't want their ads associated with those videos, and Youtube doesn't want to reward people who are getting views based on fear and possibly spreading misinformation. But man is it a bad look.
Post by: Zangi on March 11, 2020, 10:52:56 am
I don't suppose it's possible that some of the increase in cases could be due to recently expanded testing?
We just tested this 1 person who probably only came in after carrying/spreading the virus around for a few days cause they got the short stick and the virus hit them badly.
How many others around this 1 person who got it, but can still function normally or were just facing 'mild flu-like symptoms' and suffered through it the True Murrican Way.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 11, 2020, 10:53:52 am
Apparently Youtube is demonitizing videos that mention "Virus" or "Corona Virus" or "Covid" or "outbreak."Finally, my Resident Evil: Outbreak File 1 speedruns are free of capitalist scum
I get it. Advertisers don't want their ads associated with those videos, and Youtube doesn't want to reward people who are getting views based on fear and possibly spreading misinformation. But man is it a bad look.
Post by: Iduno on March 11, 2020, 11:38:15 am
How many others around this 1 person who got it, but can still function normally or were just facing 'mild flu-like symptoms' and suffered through it the True Murrican Way.
Depends on the income level in the area. Bad-paying jobs usually also have shit insurance, so anything not immediately life-threatening is easier to just ignore.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 11, 2020, 11:56:51 am
Post by: Iduno on March 11, 2020, 12:36:43 pm
WHO says we pandemic now
Did they have Dr. Jimmy Break the News?
I Can Explain the bad joke; I've Been Away. Fine, I just like jokes that are Pure and Easy.
Post by: Imic on March 11, 2020, 01:23:24 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 11, 2020, 02:02:44 pm
Discussing the merits of roll20 with my D&D group.
It's fine as long as you don't try to use the die roller. Unless you like extremely streaky dice. Just rolling the same number literally half the time.
I think IRC with a dice bot is still better, but Discord is a more modern (both good and bad) version of that.
Post by: askovdk on March 11, 2020, 03:37:33 pm
We are now at 514 infected (of 6 millions), but that is doubled from just yesterday.
So the prime minister (and top officials) were on short notice TV activating restrictions in place, closing most public work, asking everyone that can work from home to do so, and closing all schools and education from Monday.
2 weeks for now, but with the expectation that updates will follow, so I hear it as effectively 'until further notice'.
The somewhat scary fact (but good, that the fact is acknowledged and reacted upon) is that we have effectively already lost the fight. I.e. it is officially no longer the policy to 'contain and isolate', but to slow down the spread rate, so the medical logistic has a chance of keeping up. We have entered the war of attrition.
Personally I not in any particular danger if/when Corona comes to me, so don't worry for me.
Post by: scriver on March 11, 2020, 03:43:37 pm
Still not many cases where I'm from, so I'm not gonna start hamstring toilet paper yet.
Post by: nenjin on March 11, 2020, 04:11:40 pm
Quote
Still not many cases where I'm from, so I'm not gonna start hamstring toilet paper yet.
Meanwhile I went to buy toilet paper yesterday and the shelves at the grocery store near my place were almost completely bare.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 11, 2020, 05:04:37 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 11, 2020, 05:10:07 pm
Earlier on, when Hong Kong was dealing with the outbreak a rumor went around about a possible shortage of toilet paper. This lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy as everyone there bought up supplies en-masse. This subsequently made world news and seeded itself in public conscious. Then when the virus turned up locally, people thought "I gotta buy toilet paper before it runs out like in Hong Kong!". This then becomes self sustaining as people not in the know sees lots of other people buying toilet paper and join it as to not miss out.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 11, 2020, 05:16:11 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 11, 2020, 05:19:19 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 11, 2020, 05:21:46 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 11, 2020, 05:23:46 pm
Maybe it´s related to the new rumor that masturbation has a protective effect?But... it makes you blind. Dear god. It's going to end up like The Day of the Triffids.
Post by: Greiger on March 11, 2020, 05:27:00 pm
To contribute to the current topic, I work retail. My store has been out of hand sanitiser for at least 2 weeks. As of sunday there was still hand soap but it was only the small store brand kind. We're no longer allowed to hold items for customers to purchase later, and that instead just amounts to people hiding bottles of soap and alcohol in the backs of shelves in unrelated sections. Paper towels and toilet paper are still there as of sunday but I would not be surprised if those were empty by now.
This has been your unofficial Dollar General stock update
Post by: Jopax on March 11, 2020, 05:45:35 pm
Work on the job is slowing down but they still haven't told us to outright stay at home, probably won't until its too late is my guess, gotta get that moolah while you can I guess :V
My only worry right now is still my sister, she's recovering pretty nicely from the operation but I have no doubt she's gonna be in the risk category for a while to come, and it seems things can only go downhill from here.
Gonna be one hell of a year that's for sure.
Post by: nenjin on March 11, 2020, 05:49:26 pm
No. It's because there is no more dreadful nor more soul rending state of mind than finding oneself on the loo and realising there's no TP for your bunghole.
One can only imagine what our ancestors went through. Or just have gone camping at least once in your life, I suppose.
My mom is due to make a trip to the hospital here in Omaha Nebraska where the only (I think?) so far confirmed case passed through in some sort of crazy biocontainment suit/sphere/enclosure thing. She just got diagosed with cancer and is there to see the oncologist, and it would par for the course if she got infected by her time there.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 11, 2020, 05:52:52 pm
Post by: nenjin on March 11, 2020, 06:02:36 pm
Quote
Those first four cases are all travel-related, and until this point health officials have said there are no community-spread cases in the state. It is unclear how or where this latest case was contracted.
The fifth case will be transferred to the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit at Nebraska Medicine/University of Nebraska Medical Center, where Nebraska's first patient is receiving treatment and is in critical condition. The other cases are all in self-quarantine at home.
It really ticks me off that people are like "so it's just the flu." "The flu" doesn't leave otherwise healthy adults in critical condition. It's shitty, but when people try to downplay this I find myself hoping they catch it. I'm not going berzerk and stockpiling and wearing gloves and a flu mask, but I take the threat seriously. I was just the sickest I've been in 20 years this last Christmas, so I have no illusions about my ability to fend off illness anymore.
Also the college student we got at work just emailed in that he can't breathe through his nose and he has a painful chest cough. Dude calls in sick about once a week but it's possible he may have contracted it from being on campus. Which means the dude that works in his office isn't far behind, and by that logic, neither am I.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 11, 2020, 06:14:48 pm
You can then use a formula, "partial sum of a geometric series" to give you the answer of the total number of infected. From (1 - 2.4n)/(1-2.4), then after 90 days an unchecked single spreader would have created 4528 victims: 1886 no longer infectious ones along with the 2641 currently infectious victims.
Nice with the numbers. :)
In Italy it has been reported that they have identified 'patient zero' arriving on 25/26 January (in Italian) https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-galli-paziente-0-arrivato-dalla-germania-il-25-26-gennaio_15995099-202002a.shtml (https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-galli-paziente-0-arrivato-dalla-germania-il-25-26-gennaio_15995099-202002a.shtml). Latest figures for confirmed cases (wikipedia) show 12 462. (That's in only six weeks - but almost certainly there have been other sources of infection.)
Meanwhile you have to hand it to America, they have adroitly positioned themselves to become a net exporter of the virus; we are already seeing the beginning of that effect since no-one has put them on the list of restricted or banned countries of origin due to their massive under-reporting. Hope that changes soon...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 11, 2020, 06:59:41 pm
I think panic is dangerous in these situations. I've been seeing too much of that. I'm kind of worried about complacency as well, as I've been seeing a lot of that for the last few days.
I get the impression that for too many people there is no middle ground between martial law/survivalism and not doing anything at all.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 11, 2020, 07:04:34 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on March 11, 2020, 07:57:44 pm
I don't wholly believe the soundbites that are spinning around in social media concerning the situation in Italy... but the hard data is that it is, in fact, worse than anywhere else.
We will have to wait and see, but I think that they were just 'early adopters'. Iran who also reported early infections (19th February as opposed to 21st in Italy, I think) has been reporting numbers only 10-20% less, and they ennacted pretty strong quarantines very early on, so I think that the scale is right if not the precise numbers.
By the way the numbers I mentioned above for Italy come from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protezione_Civile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protezione_Civile) which can be relied upon more than some 'social medial soundbite'.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 11, 2020, 08:07:49 pm
UK is exempt :P
Post by: Frumple on March 11, 2020, 08:24:18 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 11, 2020, 08:28:02 pm
Post by: Teneb on March 11, 2020, 08:30:48 pm
Also apparently forbid cargo import? It's funny, I don't think I've ever physically heard a stock market die before. Weirdest noise I ever did hear.Quickly, sacrifice another economist to the Stonks Spirits! Numbers must go up!
Post by: martinuzz on March 11, 2020, 08:46:11 pm
the government officially forbade gatherings of groups of more than 500 people. Which is a pretty huge deal, Sweden has extensive rights of assembly.Does that mean public transport is closed down as well, for every day at rush hour, there are 500+ people waiting for trains and buses at central stations to go to work?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 11, 2020, 08:49:49 pm
Also apparently forbid cargo import? It's funny, I don't think I've ever physically heard a stock market die before. Weirdest noise I ever did hear.Stocks were already nearly dead, this is just mailing the investors a cartel-style execution video.
Post by: Zangi on March 11, 2020, 08:50:43 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 11, 2020, 08:57:49 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 11, 2020, 09:08:11 pm
Also apparently forbid cargo import? It's funny, I don't think I've ever physically heard a stock market die before. Weirdest noise I ever did hear.WTS Dutch Gouda cheese, only 30,000 dollar per kilo. I know some Mexicans who can get it across the border.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 11, 2020, 09:09:35 pm
Didnt mean your numbers. I had in mind a supposed recording of an italian doctor which I got through social media.I don't wholly believe the soundbites that are spinning around in social media concerning the situation in Italy... but the hard data is that it is, in fact, worse than anywhere else.
We will have to wait and see, but I think that they were just 'early adopters'. Iran who also reported early infections (19th February as opposed to 21st in Italy, I think) has been reporting numbers only 10-20% less, and they ennacted pretty strong quarantines very early on, so I think that the scale is right if not the precise numbers.
By the way the numbers I mentioned above for Italy come from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protezione_Civile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protezione_Civile) which can be relied upon more than some 'social medial soundbite'.
The public data on Italy shows that they´re having worse results than anywhere else. That´s hard to argue with.
Other countries had infections earlier and are managing it better.
Post by: Frumple on March 11, 2020, 09:30:46 pm
Also apparently forbid cargo import? It's funny, I don't think I've ever physically heard a stock market die before. Weirdest noise I ever did hear.Okay, they're apparently saying it may have just been trump's brains leaking out his ears and him being unable to read off a teleprompter without fucking things up. I guess we'll know more later. Maybe.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 11, 2020, 10:05:19 pm
Like, 10 minutes after the Tom Hanks news came out an NBA player tested positive right before a game.
The NBA ended up putting the rest of the season on hiatus and quarantined the two teams in their locker rooms for testing
Post by: feelotraveller on March 11, 2020, 10:10:17 pm
The public data on Italy shows that they´re having worse results than anywhere else. That´s hard to argue with.
Yep, that's why I picked on them with regard to Reelya's figures. 4500 infections in 90 days vs. 12000 in 45 on an exponential scale? Assuming that there haven't been multiple independent sources of infection that implies that the baseline rate of infection there is a lot higher than what was assumed in the theoretical figures. And yes, this is complicated by the fact that there probably have been multiple 'patient zeroes' - yet to be established - but it is a useful real world example.
Especially since the ealier discussion was about the expected number of cases in the USA going forward, and it seems (to me at least) that their response so far has actually been far worse than that of the Italians.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 12:16:37 am
It really ticks me off that people are like "so it's just the flu." "The flu" doesn't leave otherwise healthy adults in critical condition. It's shitty, but when people try to downplay this I find myself hoping they catch it.
Yep, at work today someone was saying that since it "only" has a 2% death rate then none of us need to worry. I then waved my hand around the room and pointed out that we have more than 50 people just in this room, it's a call center, which are guaranteed respiratory disease hubs, and that a 2% death rate would mean 1-2 of the people in this room would be likely to die if there's an outbreak. We have some older workers as well as younger ones.
Yes, it's just like the flu, except you're 40 times more likely to require hospitalization, and 20 times more likely to die. So "only 20 times worse than the flu, how bad could that be?" Most people mean "a cold" when they say "the flu". They don't realize how bad the actual "flu" is. Then imagine 20 times worse than that, and that's Covid-19.
BTW Australia may become responsible for killing Tom Hanks: he's here shooting a movie, and confirmed to have the virus.
I mentioned the Tom Hanks thing to another new guy at work, and he sat for a second and then said he doesn't believe it because it's "fake news". Clearly this guy isn't the sharpest tack in the box. Sure, there's stuff you need to take with a grain of salt in the news, but that's just not how it works. Decided to put this guy in the "don't bother to discuss stuff with" category because he has clear reality comprehension issues.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 04:08:21 am
I think this is on the "panic" mode of the panic vs complacency debate. The odds are good for Tom Hanks. The odds are good for any individual person. The problem comes when (like in Italy) everything happens at once and the healthcare system becomes saturated.It really ticks me off that people are like "so it's just the flu." "The flu" doesn't leave otherwise healthy adults in critical condition. It's shitty, but when people try to downplay this I find myself hoping they catch it.
Yep, at work today someone was saying that since it "only" has a 2% death rate then none of us need to worry. I then waved my hand around the room and pointed out that we have more than 50 people just in this room, it's a call center, which are guaranteed respiratory disease hubs, and that a 2% death rate would mean 1-2 of the people in this room would be likely to die if there's an outbreak. We have some older workers as well as younger ones.
Yes, it's just like the flu, except you're 40 times more likely to require hospitalization, and 20 times more likely to die. So "only 20 times worse than the flu, how bad could that be?" Most people mean "a cold" when they say "the flu". They don't realize how bad the actual "flu" is. Then imagine 20 times worse than that, and that's Covid-19.
BTW Australia may become responsible for killing Tom Hanks: he's here shooting a movie, and confirmed to have the virus.
I mentioned the Tom Hanks thing to another new guy at work, and he sat for a second and then said he doesn't believe it because it's "fake news". Clearly this guy isn't the sharpest tack in the box. Sure, there's stuff you need to take with a grain of salt in the news, but that's just not how it works. Decided to put this guy in the "don't bother to discuss stuff with" category because he has clear reality comprehension issues.
Post by: nautilu on March 12, 2020, 04:29:26 am
I hate these kinds of idiots. I saw someone post "How come I havent heard about it being in South America or Mexico? Then its not real". Maybe because he doesnt speak Spanish or read Mexican newspapers. If you are ignorant of something doesnt make it not exist. Too many morons living in their own little bubble feeling like the world owes them information that even the best doctors cant predict.It really ticks me off that people are like "so it's just the flu." "The flu" doesn't leave otherwise healthy adults in critical condition. It's shitty, but when people try to downplay this I find myself hoping they catch it.
Yep, at work today someone was saying that since it "only" has a 2% death rate then none of us need to worry. I then waved my hand around the room and pointed out that we have more than 50 people just in this room, it's a call center, which are guaranteed respiratory disease hubs, and that a 2% death rate would mean 1-2 of the people in this room would be likely to die if there's an outbreak. We have some older workers as well as younger ones.
Yes, it's just like the flu, except you're 40 times more likely to require hospitalization, and 20 times more likely to die. So "only 20 times worse than the flu, how bad could that be?" Most people mean "a cold" when they say "the flu". They don't realize how bad the actual "flu" is. Then imagine 20 times worse than that, and that's Covid-19.
BTW Australia may become responsible for killing Tom Hanks: he's here shooting a movie, and confirmed to have the virus.
I mentioned the Tom Hanks thing to another new guy at work, and he sat for a second and then said he doesn't believe it because it's "fake news". Clearly this guy isn't the sharpest tack in the box. Sure, there's stuff you need to take with a grain of salt in the news, but that's just not how it works. Decided to put this guy in the "don't bother to discuss stuff with" category because he has clear reality comprehension issues.
I swear I hope the virus kills off these morons. If it does, then Im sure we are living in heaven, if not then we are in hell.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 04:50:09 am
Once again the problem is largely not on an individual basis but on a social one. Not everyone will get it and most people will have a mild case. What you do at an individual level is not so much for you as so that, if everyone does it, the infection rate is reduced to a manageable level.
Maybe the only way to get everyone to do basic things is to place the emphasis on individual contagions, I guess.
Tbh until a couple of days ago I was more worried about people panicking, going to A&E with bullshit, collapsing it and potentially getting infected. The reluctance to do even basic things is freaking me out now.
Post by: delphonso on March 12, 2020, 05:29:43 am
That said, I've seen far too many posts on facebook and elsewhere lately that are outright denying the existence of the virus. And honestly I'm not sure which is more harmful at this point, as I'm betting covid19 becomes endemic in the next year or two.
Edit: Chairman slipped in, but I think I agree with him.
Post by: martinuzz on March 12, 2020, 05:37:34 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 05:50:19 am
I've been having trouble with the fine line between downplaying and avoiding panic. . .
That's more or less where I am too. :/
I've been having trouble with the fine line between downplaying and avoiding panic. Panic has caused car crashes, fights in supermarkets and probably worse. In the early days here, people were endangering their families and friends due to the fear. Some people ran off to the mountains worried that they had it, and probably died out there to the elements, the flu or perturbed elephants.Yeah, I've been pretty much through the same.
That said, I've seen far too many posts on facebook and elsewhere lately that are outright denying the existence of the virus. And honestly I'm not sure which is more harmful at this point, as I'm betting covid19 becomes endemic in the next year or two.
Edit: Chairman slipped in, but I think I agree with him.
I pretty much lived both situations at home. With my aunt going into panic hoarding on one hand, and a big argument with my mother yesterday because she was reluctant to cancel attendance to the opera for the next few months.
My father seems to be doing half and half, oddly. I'm kind of worried thar he's not taking social distance as far as he potentislly could nut at least he's avoiding gatherings.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2020, 05:58:11 am
I've been having trouble with the fine line between downplaying and avoiding panic.My rule of thumb for delineating overreaction/downplaying is in how does one follow the recommendations of the WHO and their local healthcare authority. Ignoring those because what do they know is downplaying. Taking additional precautions because what do they know is overreacting.
Post by: mko on March 12, 2020, 06:29:02 am
Some cancellations are active from today, some from Monday, some unis already cancelled everything cancellable.
Maybe we will manage to flatten the peak.
---
Also, some of events where I was supposed to participate were moved to June.
Taking additional precautions because what do they know is overreacting.I would say that taking additional reasonable steps is not overreacting. Though it is not too helpful, everyone thinks that they are reasonable.
Post by: scriver on March 12, 2020, 06:31:45 am
No. It's because there is no more dreadful nor more soul rending state of mind than finding oneself on the loo and realising there's no TP for your bunghole.
Okay So this is a little late but I forgot to write what I thought: it's simply because Americans associate hoarding toilet paper with crisis. It's because of hurricane season and people stocking up on toilet paper for that. So when another stay at home crisis appears people just think they need toilet paper for that too.
And then of course once people starts buying out the stocks then you get a spiral effect where even people who don't want to hamster toilet paper feel they have to run down and buy toilet paper or they won't have any left.
Post by: JWNoctis on March 12, 2020, 06:35:15 am
I wonder how many pilots are going to lose their flight license, when they can't make enough flight hours because of all the travel restrictions.
Between unpaid leaves and unprecedented industry-wide cuts, I'm sure they have a lot more to be worried about shorter term already. Other than the virus, that is.
Stay informed, stay healthy.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 06:45:32 am
I think this is on the "panic" mode of the panic vs complacency debate. The odds are good for Tom Hanks. The odds are good for any individual person. The problem comes when (like in Italy) everything happens at once and the healthcare system becomes saturated.
I don't really think it is. My point to these guys was to save up their sick days and holiday days, because we'll probably all be told not to come in for a month at some point. What we do isn't important enough to have people coming into a disease incubation room (densely packed call center) during a potential outbreak, and that's going to happen here before too long.
Also, key point is that a lot of people who work in call centers seem to smoke, including the first guy who said it's just flu. Articles are saying the death rate if you need to be hospitalized (20% of cases overall) is 14 times higher if you're a smoker.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 07:04:00 am
I found this interesting. Early intervention actually cuts down number of cases (&mortality) A LOT. We´re probably behind the curve in many cases, but better late than never.
On a regional level: We have 261 infected in the Basque country, 10 fatalities. Main problem is that most of those infected are concentrated in Vitoria (to the south), and there is a shortage of doctors in that hospital due to quarantines (patient 0 was a doctor from that hospital). We´ll see what happens in the next days
Post by: Frumple on March 12, 2020, 07:20:00 am
Oh you sweet summer child. You're both assuming people get those (I don't :V) and assuming they're allowed to save up that much (Just yesterday I read through our personnel policy -- the tl;dr is that workers that do get those things cap out at about half a month, hahaha). Nevermind saving up that many hours would take like a decade or something like that.I think this is on the "panic" mode of the panic vs complacency debate. The odds are good for Tom Hanks. The odds are good for any individual person. The problem comes when (like in Italy) everything happens at once and the healthcare system becomes saturated.
I don't really think it is. My point to these guys was to save up their sick days and holiday days, because we'll probably all be told not to come in for a month at some point.
Is it different in countries where even the relatively decent workplaces don't aggressively hate their employees (i.e. not the US)?
Last month long crisis we had at my place (michael) we were just put on administrative leave for a few weeks (so paid for normal working hours, but it didn't eat into PTO or sick leave, assuming unlike me you get those). Unfortunately, florida congress fucks are currently in the process of trying to cut state aid to libraries by about 20%, so that might not be on the table this time :P
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 07:21:57 am
Post by: Egan_BW on March 12, 2020, 07:29:05 am
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 07:32:46 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 07:43:12 am
Post by: scriver on March 12, 2020, 07:45:20 am
Stay safe and healthy out there, everyone.
Says the virus guy
Post by: mko on March 12, 2020, 07:50:16 am
Oh you sweet summer child. You're both assuming people get those (I don't :V) and assuming they're allowed to save up that much (Just yesterday I read through our personnel policy -- the tl;dr is that workers that do get those things cap out at about half a month, hahaha). Nevermind saving up that many hours would take like a decade or something like that.I think this is on the "panic" mode of the panic vs complacency debate. The odds are good for Tom Hanks. The odds are good for any individual person. The problem comes when (like in Italy) everything happens at once and the healthcare system becomes saturated.
I don't really think it is. My point to these guys was to save up their sick days and holiday days, because we'll probably all be told not to come in for a month at some point.
Is it different in countries where even the relatively decent workplaces don't aggressively hate their employees (i.e. not the US)?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minimum_annual_leave_by_country
"In the majority of nations, including all industrialised nations except the United States, advances in employee relations have seen the introduction of statutory agreements for minimum employee leave from work"
For example Poland has 13 days of public holidays + at least 20 paid holiday days chosen by employee.
Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, China and Ivory Coast has laws about minimum holiday days. USA is an outlier here.
And in case of being sick you have - obviously - paid sick leave in a civilized countries. And some not civilized.
Post by: Iduno on March 12, 2020, 07:53:10 am
The public data on Italy shows that they´re having worse results than anywhere else. That´s hard to argue with.
Perhaps you have heard of a little country known as the United States? The one where they are publicly fighting to keep the numbers hidden, so it looks like everything is fine, and is known for having the worst possible healthcare system?
Now the US public will realize shit’s hitting the fan now that famous people are getting the Corona.
Like, 10 minutes after the Tom Hanks news came out an NBA player tested positive right before a game.
The NBA ended up putting the rest of the season on hiatus and quarantined the two teams in their locker rooms for testing
Yeah. I feel bad about cheering for anyone getting sick and dying, but rich people getting sick and dying is the only way the rest of us have a chance.
That said, I've seen far too many posts on facebook
Well, there's your problem.
I wonder how many pilots are going to lose their flight license, when they can't make enough flight hours because of all the travel restrictions.
They've been wasting fuel flying empty planes around. That's not a joke (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-airlines-run-empty-ghost-flights-planes-passengers-outbreak-covid-2020-3?op=1).
I've been having trouble with the fine line between downplaying and avoiding panic.My rule of thumb for delineating overreaction/downplaying is in how does one follow the recommendations of the WHO and their local healthcare authority. Ignoring those because what do they know is downplaying. Taking additional precautions because what do they know is overreacting.
It's pretty messed up when we're doing both at the same time. It spreads like the flu, we should know how to handle this by now. Also, people are dying, and maybe we want to examine if "ignore it, go to work to avoid losing your job, infect customers and coworkers, if people die it's only because you didn't wash your hands better, not because life is broken" is really the best way to handle it.
"In the majority of nations, including all industrialised nations except the United States, advances in employee relations have seen the introduction of statutory agreements for minimum employee leave from work"
For example Poland has 13 days of public holidays + at least 20 paid holiday days chosen by employee.
Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, China and Ivory Coast has laws about minimum holiday days.
And in case of being sick you have - obviously - paid sick leave in a civilized countries. And some not civilized.
Just because it works fine in literally any other country in the world, and it improves lives and the economy, doesn't mean it would fly here.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 07:57:34 am
The public data on Italy shows that they´re having worse results than anywhere else. That´s hard to argue with.
Perhaps you have heard of a little country known as the United States? The one where they are publicly fighting to keep the numbers hidden, so it looks like everything is fine, and is known for having the worst possible healthcare system?
Well yeah but the US just self quarantined from everywhere but UK (thanks Donald), Italy is next door. Madrid is closer than that. I´m more worried about those foci, for obvious reasons. Doesn´t mean that I dont feel for you guys. TBH I think in the scenario that is looming the lack of labor laws and social support is going to be as bad or worse than the nature of the healthcare system over there. It might be that the US is an early adopter of vaccines or antiviral treatments. But if the infection peak is actually worse than anywhere else because everything and everyone kept going on as if nothing happened because they literally had no other option.... :/
News in Spain: around 3000 infectees, 87 dead. Not great data overall. 32 more deaths, around 800 more infections.
In the Basque country the numbers are 8 dead, 261 infected (20 more than yesterday). We´ll see if it stays that way
Mind you the next 5-10 days are bound to be bad. We´re seeing the results of the mass rallies that were held last week at the behest of both the far left and the far right parties. Last one was on Sunday, given that the median incubation time is around 5 days I expect we´ll still see a nasty increase until midweek next week. Later, hopefully the measures that were put in place this week will kick in.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 08:23:59 am
Oh you sweet summer child.I think this is on the "panic" mode of the panic vs complacency debate. The odds are good for Tom Hanks. The odds are good for any individual person. The problem comes when (like in Italy) everything happens at once and the healthcare system becomes saturated.
I don't really think it is. My point to these guys was to save up their sick days and holiday days, because we'll probably all be told not to come in for a month at some point.
What the fuck man? I'm talking about advice I gave to people who work in the same room as me, for the same company as me. I'm assuming we all get the same leave entitlements, because it's in our workplace agreement, as well as being a legal requirement in this country. I never made a general point. "These guys", in the anecdote, are people who sit within a few meters of my desk. This is Australia where we have proper workplace agreements and conditions.
4 weeks paid vacation and 10 paid sick days a year is the minimum legal standard here for a full-time worker. BTW here if you're classed as "casual" they have to pay you an extra $6 an hour (if you're minimum wage) to account for not getting those paid days off.
The company had a slight drop in available work (unrelated reasons) and was encouraging people to take paid leave (because they have to pay out your leave eventually anyway if you leave the job). But it was optional, they couldn't force or pressure you to take the leave, that would be illegal here. I said to the other guys it's best not to take the paid leave now because we may need it soon.
BTW - I ended up being sent to another office to help out, but they have some leftover people in the main office, and I visited there, and one of my colleagues is watching the entirety of Lord of the Rings trilogy during work hours. That's how much free time they have, on company pay. So they can't just cut people's hours because they're full-time employees, that's how it works here, so they told the guys "ok watch movies and shit". That's how it works in most advanced nations that aren't the USA.
Post by: martinuzz on March 12, 2020, 08:40:09 am
Meanwhile over here, the number of infected rose by another 111 yesterday, raising the total to 614.So far, 5 people died, of whom 4 were over 80 years old and one 68 year old who already had severe medical issues.
Post by: Zangi on March 12, 2020, 08:41:43 am
I think he might've thought you were a Murrican, where such nice options are very rare for the common folk.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 08:43:41 am
Planes stopped flying empty a few days ago, when the European airspace authorities promised that companies would not lose their airport rights for not using their quota, so at least that waste has come to an end.That´s the profile in Euskadi as well. Median age of deceased is around 90.
Meanwhile over here, the number of infected rose by another 111 yesterday, raising the total to 614.So far, 5 people died, of whom 4 were over 80 years old and one 68 year old who already had severe medical issues.
Post by: Frumple on March 12, 2020, 08:49:26 am
Nah, it just looked like general advice, and I had missed the earlier context somehow or another. If it was specific to whatever relatively non-hellscape employment situation they're in, the post doesn't particularly apply.
I think he might've thought you were a Murrican, where such nice options are very rare for the common folk.
Post by: McTraveller on March 12, 2020, 08:54:11 am
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 09:00:21 am
to give an idea: I live in a big city, pay the ridiculously high inner-city rent, work normal hours (38 a week) in what's not much more than a minimum-wage job here, but was still able to save over $20K in the last year. Decent work conditions make a lot of difference.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 09:01:27 am
Stupid rallies last week are probably driving this burst in cases.
Post by: nenjin on March 12, 2020, 09:20:49 am
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 09:23:00 am
The public data on Italy shows that they´re having worse results than anywhere else. That´s hard to argue with.
Yep, that's why I picked on them with regard to Reelya's figures. 4500 infections in 90 days vs. 12000 in 45 on an exponential scale? Assuming that there haven't been multiple independent sources of infection that implies that the baseline rate of infection there is a lot higher than what was assumed in the theoretical figures. And yes, this is complicated by the fact that there probably have been multiple 'patient zeroes' - yet to be established - but it is a useful real world example.
Especially since the ealier discussion was about the expected number of cases in the USA going forward, and it seems (to me at least) that their response so far has actually been far worse than that of the Italians.
Just noticed this one, and it's a good point. the 2.4 infections per person thing is just an average. So, on average any one person could infect about 4500 by three months. However, some people will infect a lot more than that, and some people will infect less than that. So, if there's one point of origin, that guy could infect 10 people as a "super spreader" before those 10 people go on, to infect about 45000 people (since we're averaging across 10 people) over the next 90 days from that. Planes would be a good source of these super-spreader infections since you're all crammed in there breathing recycled air.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Edit: today's USA virus cases on that site were +307. Yesterday was +294. BTW if the number of new cases caps at around 300 a day, that may be an artifact of limited throughput on testing, which itself would be a worry.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2020, 09:29:53 am
Planes would be a good source of these super-spreader infections since you're all crammed in there breathing recycled air.Pretty much all aeroplanes have HEPA filtration, so the air is hospital-grade clean.
Post by: Iduno on March 12, 2020, 09:38:49 am
Planes would be a good source of these super-spreader infections since you're all crammed in there breathing recycled air.Pretty much all aeroplanes have HEPA filtration, so the air is hospital-grade clean.
Sure, as long as everyone is kept separated, and aren't sitting inches/centimeters away from each other. It works like smoking and non-smoking areas; those planes will be loaded with the plague for a decade after sick people quit being there.
I think that metaphor started getting away from me, so I'll just leave it there.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 09:39:50 am
Well, this really takes the cake for conspiracy theories:
https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c201hmp9
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/832xn/p084v43m.jpg)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 09:43:39 am
What's the course of treatment that early intervention is supposed to help with? Anti-virals? Respirators for people who can't breathe on their own? Just generally having someone to feed and hydrate you while it runs its course?It's a novel virus, so there's no clear treatment protocol except supportive so the body's immune system can hopefully fight it off.
Doctors are also throwing different drugs at this to see what sticks like different HIV drugs, anti-malarials, new stuff in trial phase.
Post by: nenjin on March 12, 2020, 09:53:33 am
I pray he was just lying through his teeth because if he's actually sick and trying to come in.....I'm going to be very displeased and tell his ass to go home.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2020, 09:57:36 am
Sure, as long as everyone is kept separated, and aren't sitting inches/centimeters away from each other. It works like smoking and non-smoking areas; those planes will be loaded with the plague for a decade after sick people quit being there.It means that you're at risk only if the couple persons you may be sitting next to are infectious, or if the person that's been using your seat in the past day or so was. This is about as much risk as you take when using any form of public transportation and many public spaces. The air being recirculated doesn't add to that.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 10:04:45 am
look up Air China 112 which was during the Sars outbreak
(https://images.newscientist.com/wp-content/uploads/2005/03/24915301.jpg)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 10:49:26 am
What's the course of treatment that early intervention is supposed to help with? Anti-virals? Respirators for people who can't breathe on their own? Just generally having someone to feed and hydrate you while it runs its course?Early intervention is populational not personal. The idea is to consider hard measures early on to prevent it's spread. Again, the problem is populational. Its unlikely coronavirus will hurt you directly. But it can hurt or kill vulnerable people. And if the hospital is packed with vulnerable people and they can't treat you for, say, a car accident, you're in as much deep shit as if you were actually having serious trouble with the virus.
That's actually the problem in italy nowadays
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 11:03:16 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 11:59:56 am
South Korea intervened early and got everything under control without harsh measures. Here rhe goverment didnt dare to stop a mass rally for the 8th of March out of fear of being labelled chauvinist. Meanwhile the alt right staged miniprotests through all the country. Hence why 5 days later our incidence is spiking 🙄
This was so stupid and so avoidable.
Goverment intervened on monday (one day too late) and said we'll see if the new measures are working in ten days (five now). No shit. Five days for the 8M fuckup to peak, and other five to see if we actually did anything afterwards 🤦🏻♂️
Tbh I think that after the first fuckup they are being way too shy. Current measures would have been enough *before* holding rallies in the middle of a pandemic. Now? We'll see
Post by: Iduno on March 12, 2020, 12:22:25 pm
Ok good to know, just don't sit near anyone else and you're covered :)
Well, this really takes the cake for conspiracy theories:
https://monitoring.bbc.co.uk/product/c201hmp9
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/832xn/p084v43m.jpg)
That's both too coherent, and doesn't make enough sense to be a real conspiracy theory.
Sure, as long as everyone is kept separated, and aren't sitting inches/centimeters away from each other. It works like smoking and non-smoking areas; those planes will be loaded with the plague for a decade after sick people quit being there.It means that you're at risk only if the couple persons you may be sitting next to are infectious, or if the person that's been using your seat in the past day or so was. This is about as much risk as you take when using any form of public transportation and many public spaces. The air being recirculated doesn't add to that.
I haven't flown much in the last 19 years for some reason (the reason is that it's hell), but I remember the air circulation being a nozzle that may or may not work, and if it works, at maximum, will stop about half of your forehead from sweating or freezing, depending on the temperature in the plane. Unless everyone else was also trying to use the air circulation, and everyone got a negligible amount of air. Again, this is the US, so being absolute shit is expected.
Also, the asshole behind you will never stop coughing on you.
And if the hospital is packed with vulnerable people and they can't treat you for, say, a car accident, you're in as much deep shit as if you were actually having serious trouble with the virus.
Yeah, you're bleeding out at the hospital, but free coronavirus while your family waits is something.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 01:11:13 pm
Maybe there is something to the theory that warm weather inhibits viral spread?
Post by: Iduno on March 12, 2020, 01:37:47 pm
Edit: I can already imagine what the response would be if anyone suggested some of that money go to employees who lost their jobs so the company could save money.
Post by: Stench Guzman on March 12, 2020, 01:47:15 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 02:35:06 pm
On Day 1, the pope slapped a woman and things went downhill from there
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 12, 2020, 03:08:02 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on March 12, 2020, 03:31:09 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 12, 2020, 03:38:16 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 12, 2020, 03:51:18 pm
Undead-nazi-pope would be peak 2020.
I don't think he's dead, he just stepped down.
Post by: Grim Portent on March 12, 2020, 03:52:14 pm
This pope sucks, bring back pope classic
I prefer Pope Zero, the same refreshing Pope taste with none of the Catholeries.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2020, 03:55:38 pm
Post by: Akura on March 12, 2020, 04:18:11 pm
Post by: Imic on March 12, 2020, 04:20:33 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 04:23:12 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 12, 2020, 05:22:54 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 05:44:15 pm
What worries me is that I might have trouble getting in because of a potential travel ban, like Italy´s.
In theory I´m supposed to start in April. I have time... I have time even for a potential travel ban to come and go. Still... I have to think this through. I might fly in next week just in case, maybe try to start my contract early (mostly because of the potential boredom of two weeks alone in Ireland with social isolation in place... on the other hand I´ll have my PC. )
I really wanted to meet with my Irish friends :(
I think Ireland is reacting fairly early to the coronavirus crisis, which is good. However, the UK is being as slow as everyone else at the very least, so I dont know to what extent Irish measures alone will spare them.
Post by: McTraveller on March 12, 2020, 05:57:10 pm
I can't tell, because most of the media seems to think the unconfirmed cases will all be at the same rates as the confirmed ones in terms of ICU need, etc. Everything I've seen only seems to focus on the effect of health care availability, and how slowing down the spread improves that. But I haven't seen anything (other than the non-rigorous financial markets) evaluate the mid-term impact of shutting everything down to impose social distancing.
Note this is kind of an academic question - and not "in a perfect world" kind of stuff, or blaming economic or cultural systems, just a question of "how would you be able to mitigate the next pandemic also with minimal economic impact". Because is it really worth a global recession to stop a pandemic? Is there a way to stop a pandemic without a recession? What would it take?
For instance, could you have rules that state all hospitals must have a minimum X% reserve of protective gear and beds? Could you have a "strategic wage reserve" in case you have to quarantine everyone for a month?
Again, this is a "what can we do next time" question, not a "damn we didn't have this already who can we blame" question.
Post by: mko on March 12, 2020, 06:07:22 pm
I noticed something interesting: in the Canary islands they only have 46 cases despite having a tremendous population density and a chaotic healthcare system.How many people were tested? Detected cases are limited by (1) number of tests made (2) number of infections.
Maybe there is something to the theory that warm weather inhibits viral spread?
So since there are probably 10-20x as many total cases as ones that have been confirmed (confirmed cases lag actual by quite a lot) - does that mean it's better or worse than people are saying?Worse as far as containment goes, better as far as death ratio goes, worse as far as future death count goes.
Undetected cases result in overestimate of death ratio in case of counting detected death, known recovered people and known cases. Especially as many will recover without ever being diagnosed.
Undetected cases will infect others.
Undetected cases may worsen and some of this people will die.
For instance, could you have rules that state all hospitals must have a minimum X% reserve of protective gear and beds? Could you have a "strategic wage reserve" in case you have to quarantine everyone for a month?Yes, but it is too late to properly stockpile for this specific case. And you cant easily stockpile qualified doctors.
mitigate the next pandemic also with minimal economic impactStop it before pandemic stage. Or stop it on a country level - Singapore and Japan are potentially promising.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 06:27:50 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 06:45:22 pm
I bet Kim Jong Un is hiding out in a mountain bunker right now
Post by: McTraveller on March 12, 2020, 06:49:05 pm
EDIT: My kids are both sub first-grade. They go bonkers without school.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 06:51:31 pm
Post by: Max™ on March 12, 2020, 06:55:57 pm
How do you make a dead pope float?
As for infectiousness, it looks like this coronavirus can survive on surfaces for a week, and remains viable after being launched 6 or 7 feet in a cough, so it's the people who were sitting three seats away from you a week ago and everyone closer you gotta worry about.
Regarding confirmed cases in the US, we found a case on Jan 21st and the person testing was told to knock it off because it could violate patient privacy using flu testing samples for this, that's how bad shit is here.
We've had a month and a half of unchecked spread, denial, deliberate limiting of tests, and there is no exaggeration when I say we have literally no possible way of telling how many cases there are here waiting to be found. If tests found 300, I'd add two zeroes and hope I've overestimated. Just make sure you don't let trumpists pretend they aren't culpable for the moronavirus and every death which is going to result from it.
China went from denial to lockdown and panic construction of hospitals.
We're in denial pretending it's a lockdown because that stupid orange cuntsack says it is, and flat out can't approach the ability to lock things down or slap together hospitals on a moment's notice which China used, so we're completely fucked like a narcoleptic chick around a party thrown by Lauer, Cosby, Weinstein, Trump, and all their horses after they got horse viagra in their feed bags.
Ever chuckled at people sending thoughts and prayers?
We could use some thoughts and prayers at this point, because there's nothing else we can really do now.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 07:01:05 pm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Note that USA says they have a very low amount of people in "critical" condition, 10, but 41 dead. Whereas in Italy, the number of people in "critical" condition is larger than the number of deaths. My takeaway is that the USA has many more people in critical condition than suggested, but they're not getting tested until too late (some articles suggest this is the case), so that skews that there are more deaths than critical cases. Note that for the recovered vs died rate, USA apparently has a much higher death rate than Italy. This again suggests that there are critically ill people in the USA who just aren't getting tested until too late, then are being picked up in the stats.
Post by: ZBridges on March 12, 2020, 07:02:09 pm
Source: https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/sk/coronavirus-vaccine-made-in-saskatchewan-is-now-in-the-testing-stages (https://www.narcity.com/news/ca/sk/coronavirus-vaccine-made-in-saskatchewan-is-now-in-the-testing-stages)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 07:04:10 pm
There's a palpable sense of tension on the streets. Lots of people wearing masks now. Panic shopping has already begun in earnest.
The storm is here, and it's gonna get rough
Post by: Quarque on March 12, 2020, 07:10:56 pm
Post by: mko on March 12, 2020, 07:14:57 pm
Singapore can't be an example for any large country... they are a city state.
Bigger problem is that they are are rich, have authoritarian society and with respected relatively competent government. Methods (like tracing, limiting entry, screening etc) are likely to be less effective elsewhere.
But small size is not making all methods completely invalid.
Temperature screening, early quarantine seem like a good idea. Nothing city-state specific here.
"visitor limit of two per patient in hospitals to slow the spread of the virus. Some hospitals have discouraged children from visiting" seems perfectly applicable. Nothing city-state specific here.
Paid sick leave (adjusted for local situation) and extending it to self-employed etc makes perfect sense. ("A $100 allowance per day will be provided to those self-employed under quarantine orders".). Not having paid sick leave (hello USA) is insanity, extending it during pandemic to cover more people is obvious thing to do. And given that taxes collected and number of people on sick leave both scale with population it is nothing that would not make it applicable to larger countries.
"Hospital bills will be paid by MOH for all suspected and confirmed cases of the virus as the illness is caused by an emerging disease." (again both population and taxes scale with population.)
"government distributed four surgical masks to each household" - OK, this is viable only for small countries in initial stages of pandemic.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Singapore
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 07:28:26 pm
I'm guessing it'll hit 8000-10000 by next weekend since the rates aren't actually slowing down. And then, that's uncharted territory. There's no other country with that many infections that isn't on some sort of severe lockdown. Will the US feds quibble about what to do for the next 3 weeks and you'll be approaching 50,000 detected cases? This emphasis on the stock market is a foolish waste of time.
EDIT: To put this in perspective, Iran was at the same number of detected cases around March 2, 9 days ago, and Italy was at the same number of detected cases on March 2. That suggests you got 9 days before the USA outbreak catches up to where those nations are now, 12-15K infections. Assuming you got the testing ramped up in time.
Post by: Frumple on March 12, 2020, 07:38:31 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 07:41:14 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 12, 2020, 07:44:11 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 07:45:11 pm
The regional goverment there are jerks. Again, I'd like a border on the river Ebro.
Oh and the Roma who got infected and tried to spread it around? Patient zero threatened with death all "payos" (non-roma) and some.of his buddies managed to break out of their quarantined block and robbed shops by threatening people with infection.
I have no words
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 07:48:11 pm
Ohio is just spitballing. If they had that many, there should be 20,000 people being hospitalized there for it.
Post by: nenjin on March 12, 2020, 07:49:29 pm
"What, 150k people died from the flu last year. We're at 22 in the US so far. Big whoop!"
It's the exact kind of US-centric thinking we've come to expect from them.
What's also scary, as well, is the fact the number is different depending on where you look, and when.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 07:58:55 pm
The way things are going I think we´re going to have to rely on China to bail Europe out with advice and equipment.. Guess we´ll be whitelisting Huaweii afterwards. not that I had any problem with that mind you, but Trump will probably be grinding his teeth. But he´ll be too busy with the covid crisis in US I guess.
BTW specially bad that the German goverment refused to support an EU wide program to address the COVID crisis and instead pretty much went for an every man for himself approach. So much for solidarity.
It´s idiocy btw. It has spread. This is exactly the kind of crisis that goes better if you pool resources.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 08:00:49 pm
It'll be interesting to see how India goes. They have an unbelievably low rate of infections from this. And I mean unbelievably low. Either they've been spared by the Gods and we should convert to Hinduism or they've got cases happening and just are too disorganized to know about it.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 12, 2020, 08:03:15 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 08:04:33 pm
Keep working plebs, while we get sealed into our bio-domes.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 12, 2020, 08:09:16 pm
Their soft bellies will split before my blade.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 08:13:41 pm
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-usa
Quote
First, Eaker called her local health department and was told her patient didn’t qualify for testing since they hadn’t traveled to China, per the guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the time. After the CDC relaxed its testing criteria, the patient was still sick, so Eaker called again. “I didn’t receive a phone call back,” she says.
The patient thought they had pneumonia and asked to be tested for peace of mind. Finally, last week, after Eaker ordered some test kits herself from a private lab, she got a call back. “The health department told me I was not allowed to use those test kits — that I ordered — without their permission!”
There was that story a couple of days ago about the CDC not allowing the testing of flu samples because that might breach privacy. That was one thing. This is the government deliberately banning sick people who want to be tested from being tested with privately-sourced tests.
Quote
Meanwhile, the commercial tests the clinic ordered still haven’t arrived.
Sounds a lot like the CDC called the private company who makes the test kits and prevented the order from going out. Can't have pesky local health workers just getting hold of tests and testing people themselves. Can't control the messaging if that happens.
Post by: Max™ on March 12, 2020, 08:28:39 pm
This is what I meant by "clear cases of community spread" because until just recently there has been a flat out denial of testing for those who weren't overseas in certain countries, and lets all laugh at the idea that any returning flights getting tested when people were being asked "did you fly in from China" and responding "no, Italy" only to be told "wow, sounds fun, have a nice day" before they can just leave.
Is it likely that Ohio is overestimating when they guess 100k?
Yes... it is impossible that they might be right?
No, we won't know how bad this shit is for months I'd say.
When I was worrying a fewdays ago about tens of thousands of deaths it was because I was expecting SOME sort of efforts to have been taken before now, instead of a half-assed financial stimulus and further denial.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 08:31:55 pm
Now I believe the CDC is actively working against the public good.
There’s also the FDA wrapping all the private tests up in bureaucracy tape for reasons
Post by: Teneb on March 12, 2020, 08:32:09 pm
WHat is scary is the mismanagement. In Spain things might be under control if they hadn´t HELD FUCKING RALLIES last week, in full knowledge there was a pandemic. Bit of karma about that though: the main advocates of the rallies (Irene MOntero and Pablo Iglesias from Podemos on the left, and Ortega-Smith and Abascal on the alt-right side) are actually infected. I¨m kind of hoping that now that their idiocy has been exposed to the whole country both parties will collapse. We wont be so lucky though.And to think that in 3 days Bolsonaro-encouraged fash rallies will pop up all over the country!
The way things are going I think we´re going to have to rely on China to bail Europe out with advice and equipment.. Guess we´ll be whitelisting Huaweii afterwards. not that I had any problem with that mind you, but Trump will probably be grinding his teeth. But he´ll be too busy with the covid crisis in US I guess.
BTW specially bad that the German goverment refused to support an EU wide program to address the COVID crisis and instead pretty much went for an every man for himself approach. So much for solidarity.
It´s idiocy btw. It has spread. This is exactly the kind of crisis that goes better if you pool resources.
Speaking of, one of Bolsonaro's aides (who sat right next to Trump when they were in the US just now) is infected.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 08:35:48 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 12, 2020, 08:36:08 pm
Oh Is it likely that Ohio is overestimating when they guess 100k?I mean, they're estimating 1% of their population currently has it. Out of an 11 million population. And this shit has been spreading in the US since probably like January, from what folks are piecing together. They're likely not overestimating. We're just not fucking testing. So it can be hard to tell how bad it actually is.
Yes...
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 08:40:32 pm
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Other than a few outliers where deaths can be counted on one hand, the USA is the only nation claiming deaths > critical patients. Either America is "special" or that's an omission of cases. also of note is the point that USA is claiming "recovered" patients is less than the deaths. Which nobody else is saying either. So there are clearly people who've been through the health system, but weren't tested unless it was damn obvious they have it, so critical patients are being missed and if they get better, they're not being counted in the outbreak stats.
Post by: Max™ on March 12, 2020, 08:43:44 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 12, 2020, 08:44:21 pm
Post by: Teneb on March 12, 2020, 08:55:15 pm
And to think that in 3 days Bolsonaro-encouraged fash rallies will pop up all over the country!(https://imgur.com/2Pkde7h.png)
Speaking of, one of Bolsonaro's aides (who sat right next to Trump when they were in the US just now) is infected.
ironic.gif
Post by: Rolan7 on March 12, 2020, 09:03:53 pm
(You have to buy it for 1 premium currency, which you can get 50 of every day for free)
Post by: Trekkin on March 12, 2020, 09:09:04 pm
Pokemon GO basically gifted everyone 30 "incense", an existing premium item that lets you catch pokemon without walking. They call it a "Winter Box", but it only took me an embarrassingly long few seconds to understand the reason.
(You have to buy it for 1 premium currency, which you can get 50 of every day for free)
How long before they spawn Koffings and Weezings everywhere?
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 09:16:09 pm
Or is it Sandshrew?
Post by: TamerVirus on March 12, 2020, 09:18:38 pm
I'm expecting "mysterious deaths" to start rocketing upwards any day now.They’ll just blame the flu.
In fact, the CDC head has admitted that a number of previous ‘flu deaths’ were actually caused by Covid
Post by: Rolan7 on March 12, 2020, 09:24:54 pm
How long before they spawn Koffings and Weezings everywhere?...They uh, kinda did last week, as part of a Team Rocket multi-day event. Lots of other poison types too, but oof. Maybe not as bad as the Koffing nest that famously spawned in the Holocaust Museum a few months after launch though.
Aaanyway... Noticed that ABC store (government liquor store) was triple-staffed and oddly busy for a Thursday, but also all the employees had gloves. Most of the grocery store clerks aren't doing that yet. Housemate suggested ABC stores handle more paper money, which is definitely the most helpful thing he's said about the virus (100m of infectious poop fumes, FML).
Grocery store is still perfectly well stocked too, when he was claiming a week ago that all their canned goods had to be gone and that everyone would have gloves. I'm getting pretty scared, but he's eagerly repeating online theories for a full two weeks now and it's been... stressful, at times. I bought a roll of toilet paper today which I absolutely don't need. Groupthink is fucking insidious.
I am avoiding touching my face unless I've washed my hands, which is the logical advice from the WHO. I don't know that I'm always reaching 20 seconds of washing, but I'm trying to.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 12, 2020, 09:49:53 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 12, 2020, 10:02:15 pm
Justin Trudeau himself does not show signs of illness yet but will be placed in 14 day quarantine.
Post by: nenjin on March 12, 2020, 10:43:07 pm
Like I've said elsewhere, sickest I've been in 20 years. Started with a fever, and some what of a cough, then progressed to a sore throat, painfully aching chest during normal non-coughing periods, loss of my voice and basically choking on my own phlegm. I've had pneumonia as a kid, I remember it well. It wasn't pneumonia for sure, and when I went to the doctor and was tested, they said it WASN'T the Influenza that was ravaging town at the time. They never said what it was. I was down for two weeks and another two weeks to recover. My voice came back in full about 8 weeks after I lost it. I was around plenty of people and none of them got super sick but I dunno. I was pretty spooked at all the symptoms and how long it went on for. I didn't think I was dying at any point and I didn't have the kind of respiratory distress that's reported, but I'm a smoker and I definitely felt like I was paying the price for it. Sometimes I'd cough my brains out just to try to get the crud out of my lungs so I could breathe better but the stuff was like, crazy thick and wouldn't come out.
I doubt there's any way I could verify if what I had was Covid or not. But there's no way in hell I want to be even remotely that sick again. Everyone joked with me that I should have gotten a flu shot, but it wouldn't have done anything against what I had.
Post by: Reelya on March 12, 2020, 11:27:01 pm
Local news, shoppageddon continues here, the big supermarket in my area is a still disrupted. It's seriously hit and miss what I find when I come here. Plenty of "stuff", but just completely bare of some things.
I saw an Asian lady with a trolley, and among other things in the overflowing trolley she had Spam. Not just a few tins, she'd lifted the entire cardboard tray of spam right off the shelf and not bothered to separate them. They're not bothering to stack cans anymore, they just rip the top off the box and leave it in the cardboard tray.
Post by: wierd on March 12, 2020, 11:29:02 pm
Great times.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 12, 2020, 11:30:07 pm
This is in Ohio, which only just started reporting cases. Hoping he actually had it, since he's fine now and he'd probably be high risk. In his early 80s, but built like a truck from constantly hunting and trapshooting for the last 50 years or so.
As for work, they're instituting voluntary work from home till April, and banned all work travel and visitors without corporate approval.
Post by: coalboat on March 13, 2020, 01:34:19 am
Post by: scriver on March 13, 2020, 01:35:20 am
I'm still a bit paranoid about my cold but hey no fever and no dry cough means it's probably not corona right? It's just hard to throw the thought of it being Raven Flu out, even if I lack the right symptoms, when you feel ill simultaneously as media is constantly going on about CORVID. I'm honestly more worried about me spreading it around by being stupid than having it in itself.
Post by: coalboat on March 13, 2020, 01:40:44 am
Post by: Rolan7 on March 13, 2020, 01:55:09 am
In case anyone hadn't heard that yet. Lots of misinformation.
In other words, I agree.
Post by: scriver on March 13, 2020, 01:57:41 am
Post by: Rolan7 on March 13, 2020, 01:59:49 am
My place of employment has instituted new visiting hours restrictions due to coronavirus concerns. (We do NOT have it in our facility-- yet.) It has already made one visitor extremely irate that we have instituted such restrictions too.I want to visit my Gma but it'll be weird to avoid contact with her. She'd expect a hug. She wouldn't understand my denying it. She's pretty far... gone.
Great times.
I should go, if only to see her once more before this all comes to its inevitable head.
And navigate the difficulties just this one last time.
Post by: Greiger on March 13, 2020, 02:26:53 am
I understand why they are doing it but think they should make an exception with supervised visits due to the circumstances. Friend and his family are absolutely livid and planning to sue.
Post by: mko on March 13, 2020, 04:22:18 am
If people are saying it's been here since January then there's a chance I actually had it in December.Covid19 is supposed to be dry cough, without phlegm, right?
Like I've said elsewhere, sickest I've been in 20 years. Started with a fever, and some what of a cough, then progressed to a sore throat, painfully aching chest during normal non-coughing periods, loss of my voice and basically choking on my own phlegm. I've had pneumonia as a kid, I remember it well. It wasn't pneumonia for sure, and when I went to the doctor and was tested, they said it WASN'T the Influenza that was ravaging town at the time. They never said what it was. I was down for two weeks and another two weeks to recover. My voice came back in full about 8 weeks after I lost it. I was around plenty of people and none of them got super sick but I dunno. I was pretty spooked at all the symptoms and how long it went on for. I didn't think I was dying at any point and I didn't have the kind of respiratory distress that's reported, but I'm a smoker and I definitely felt like I was paying the price for it. Sometimes I'd cough my brains out just to try to get the crud out of my lungs so I could breathe better but the stuff was like, crazy thick and wouldn't come out.
I doubt there's any way I could verify if what I had was Covid or not. But there's no way in hell I want to be even remotely that sick again. Everyone joked with me that I should have gotten a flu shot, but it wouldn't have done anything against what I had.
Best friend has a father in some kind of long term critical care hospital(edit: a rehab hospital) (...) I understand why they are doing it but think they should make an exception with supervised visits due to the circumstances. Friend and his family are absolutely livid and planning to sue.Given vulnerable patients it makes sense, though I understand that they are angry.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 13, 2020, 04:53:27 am
If people are saying it's been here since January then there's a chance I actually had it in December.
Like I've said elsewhere, sickest I've been in 20 years. Started with a fever, and some what of a cough, then progressed to a sore throat, painfully aching chest during normal non-coughing periods, loss of my voice and basically choking on my own phlegm. I've had pneumonia as a kid, I remember it well. It wasn't pneumonia for sure, and when I went to the doctor and was tested, they said it WASN'T the Influenza that was ravaging town at the time. They never said what it was. I was down for two weeks and another two weeks to recover. My voice came back in full about 8 weeks after I lost it. I was around plenty of people and none of them got super sick but I dunno. I was pretty spooked at all the symptoms and how long it went on for. I didn't think I was dying at any point and I didn't have the kind of respiratory distress that's reported, but I'm a smoker and I definitely felt like I was paying the price for it. Sometimes I'd cough my brains out just to try to get the crud out of my lungs so I could breathe better but the stuff was like, crazy thick and wouldn't come out.
I doubt there's any way I could verify if what I had was Covid or not. But there's no way in hell I want to be even remotely that sick again. Everyone joked with me that I should have gotten a flu shot, but it wouldn't have done anything against what I had.
If that was in december there is no way it could be Covid-19. Had it been, then it would have been completely out of control in the area where you live right now, look at Iran and Italy for what the situation would be. (just looking at where I live and how fast it spreads here from cases that can be traced, it is clear that such a situation could be reached in weeks, not months)
Post by: Greiger on March 13, 2020, 05:16:24 am
While I don't know the whole story my understanding is that they need to visit to determine whether he wants to remain there or be moved to a home or something. If they didn't know about the virus thing an outside observer who knows nothing of whats going on could potentially think it looks like they are holding him without visitors to intentionally rack up the bill.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 13, 2020, 05:26:41 am
And this isnt the time for exceptions. Their visit can spread the disease to him, or viceversa.
Post by: mko on March 13, 2020, 06:29:06 am
Quote
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
And this isnt the time for exceptions. Their visit can spread the disease to him, or viceversa.And to other extremely vulnerable patients.
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 06:57:11 am
Post by: Imic on March 13, 2020, 07:02:52 am
Post by: IcyTea31 on March 13, 2020, 07:15:15 am
Government has recommended against (not banned) gatherings of over 500 people, and is considering putting the preparedness law (a sort of martial law lite) in effect.
My university has banned using campus grounds for gatherings of over 30 people, and recommends that people in cafeteria lines stand at least 1 meter apart from each other.
My father sent me a message to go buy food and other supplies for 2 weeks in case I have to quarantine myself. I'm probably strong and healthy enough to survive the disease even without medical care, so preventing the spread of infection is first priority if I get it.
The level of panic feels quite high, making me wonder why past epidemics haven't incited it. From what I've understood of the virus, it's not particularly "special" when comparing the numbers to those of past epidemics and pandemics. It's new and has spread wide, but I'm confident that a vaccine will come soon enough and life will return to normal. The deaths it has caused so far are a tragedy, but this virus is not the end of humanity.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 13, 2020, 07:22:33 am
Thats what happened in Italy
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 07:31:11 am
https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-do-and-don-t-know-about-wuhan-coronavirus-so-far
SARS infected just over 8000, with around 800 deaths. MERS infected 2500, also with around 800 deaths. This new thing spreads much more easily, and already tops both of those for deaths combined. Disease which kill you spectacularly and quickly tend to burn out quickly too, because people know to stay away. Diseases which linger and have more "carriers" who might not be aware they even have it can end up killing a lot more people.
That's how come the flu kills so many people, despite only killing 1/1000 of the sufferers. This thing spreads as well or faster than flu and also has probably about 10 times the fatality rate. So, it's like a super-flu, and flu is one of the biggest killing diseases in all of history.
To jump now, and compare it to other "flu epidemics", first consider "swine flu".
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-h1n1-pandemic/swine-flu-infected-1-in-5-death-rate-low-study-shows-idUSBRE90O0T720130125
As bad as covid-19? Nope. Swine flu had a death rate of only 0.02%. Sure, it infected a ton of people, but it only killed about 1 in 5000. Less than season flu, even. It was obviously a misplaced panic.
There's also H5N1 "bird flu" that was noted in the news. But, note, it only spread from birds to humans, with pretty much zero human-to-human spread. It killed 115 people, and stopped once we immunized or slaughtered a bunch of chickens and stuff to stop it.
So, none of the major outbreaks of the last 20 years is anything like this one.
Post by: mko on March 13, 2020, 07:51:03 am
From what I've understood of the virus, it's not particularly "special" when comparing the numbers to those of past epidemics and pandemics.Which ones you are comparing?
but this virus is not the end of humanity.Certainly.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 13, 2020, 07:58:12 am
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841 (https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841)
Post by: IcyTea31 on March 13, 2020, 08:15:20 am
Slowing the spread of infection is important, but far more has been done to do so for COVID-19 than for any other disease in recent history. I'm not saying we should do less; I'm asking why we didn't do more for the others.
Post by: Iduno on March 13, 2020, 08:19:20 am
My office sent me a weird denialist message along the lines of "the virus is only proven to spread in groups, and since our interactions with customers are one-to-one we can keep working safely". It's like someone took the Christian abstinence propaganda I was fed in high school and put it through a wheat thresher.
Oh, we've been told that the customers are still coming in, so we'll serve them. At least here, they don't pretend to care if we live or die.
So since there are probably 10-20x as many total cases as ones that have been confirmed (confirmed cases lag actual by quite a lot) - does that mean it's better or worse than people are saying?
I can't tell, because most of the media seems to think the unconfirmed cases will all be at the same rates as the confirmed ones in terms of ICU need, etc. Everything I've seen only seems to focus on the effect of health care availability, and how slowing down the spread improves that. But I haven't seen anything (other than the non-rigorous financial markets) evaluate the mid-term impact of shutting everything down to impose social distancing.
Note this is kind of an academic question - and not "in a perfect world" kind of stuff, or blaming economic or cultural systems, just a question of "how would you be able to mitigate the next pandemic also with minimal economic impact". Because is it really worth a global recession to stop a pandemic? Is there a way to stop a pandemic without a recession? What would it take?
For instance, could you have rules that state all hospitals must have a minimum X% reserve of protective gear and beds? Could you have a "strategic wage reserve" in case you have to quarantine everyone for a month?
Again, this is a "what can we do next time" question, not a "damn we didn't have this already who can we blame" question.
Full Madagascar. Close down airports, seaports, people driving in, whatever. And don't make exceptions for rich people. Having some sort of Health Organization the whole World listens to might help as well. It will cause an economic slowdown, but less so than panic or lots people dying, let alone both. Probably should also test people who are sick, instead of assuming it will be fine, just in case.
I have to say, watching the counter creep up every time I refresh that current infections for US thing is morbidly fascinating. Infections are up > 30% since the day before and there's still 6.5 hours until it's midnight in the Western states. Tracking for a 35-40% daily increase in number of infections again.
I'm guessing it'll hit 8000-10000 by next weekend since the rates aren't actually slowing down. And then, that's uncharted territory. There's no other country with that many infections that isn't on some sort of severe lockdown. Will the US feds quibble about what to do for the next 3 weeks and you'll be approaching 50,000 detected cases? This emphasis on the stock market is a foolish waste of time.
EDIT: To put this in perspective, Iran was at the same number of detected cases around March 2, 9 days ago, and Italy was at the same number of detected cases on March 2. That suggests you got 9 days before the USA outbreak catches up to where those nations are now, 12-15K infections. Assuming you got the testing ramped up in time.
A more suspicious person would wonder aloud why the president appears to be trying to get a disease to spread running up to presidential elections. Especially while rallies and caucuses are being held by the other team.
The wife of Canada's prime minister Trudeau has been tested positive for corona.
Justin Trudeau himself does not show signs of illness yet but will be placed in 14 day quarantine.
Huh. Does black facepaint prevent transmission of the disease?
Post by: andrea on March 13, 2020, 08:25:36 am
COVID-19 peaks rapidly and has an higher hospitalization rate. People won't die just because of the virus. People will die because hospitals are flooded and are forced to give sick people the boot and leave them to die. The reason for those extreme quarantines is to flatten the peak. Completely unmitigated, the potential death toll is significant, concentrated in a short time span, and it happens in a very bad way. (people dying despite care is one thing. corpses massing at hospital doors because there aren't enough beds is another)
Post by: Frumple on March 13, 2020, 08:29:29 am
My primary point of comparison was seasonal flu. Hundreds of millions of infections, millions of hospitalizations and hundreds of thousands of deaths every year worldwide. We take the virus apart, create the vaccine, distribute it, weep for the lost, and get ready for next year. This is a routine, not a reason for panic.Like covid's actively more dangerous than the seasonal flu? Routine going into at-minimum 5-time overdrive is reason to panic in most situations, nevermind situations that kill people.
Slowing the spread of infection is important, but far more has been done to do so for COVID-19 than for any other disease in recent history. I'm not saying we should do less; I'm asking why we didn't do more for the others.
You would expect doing less for things less likely to kill people. Other stuff's also tended to be spread out more than this thing's been so far -- vaccines exist for seasonal flu, and took hecka time to develop, its whole shtick is over several months rather than several weeks, etc.
Add in more capabilities, more awareness, and so on, and you've got most of your why.
Post by: mko on March 13, 2020, 08:32:36 am
Going back somewhat further in history the obvious comparison is Spanish flu. Chances are that Covid19 won't be as severe, but part of that decision is down the the mutation (faux-)RNG.There are many reason why death ratio will be lower.
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841 (https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841)
World is not just after worldwide war, with collapsed countries, malnourished population etc.
Spanish flu predates discover of flu virus, during 1918 pandemic source of illness was not fully known.
Medicine moved really forward in last 100 years.
My primary point of comparison was seasonal flu. Hundreds of millions of infections, millions of hospitalizations and hundreds of thousands of deaths every year worldwide. We take the virus apart, create the vaccine, distribute it, weep for the lost, and get ready for next year. This is a routine, not a reason for panic.
1) Yes, we are far, far underreacting to flu
2) Covid19 is far more deadlier than flu, especially in case of older people.
3) See Wuhan and Italy - Covid19 has potential to spread rapidly and overfill hospitals. "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care" (from official recommendation, there are reports that in some places it was necessary and only patients most likely to recover were fully treated among seriously ill ones - see https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/ )
4) panic is not a solution for anything
I'm not saying we should do less; I'm asking why we didn't do more for the others.Depends on specific illness. In some cases we really should do far more (for examples ones caused by air pollution).
Post by: TamerVirus on March 13, 2020, 08:36:18 am
Trying to build up a two week buffer of supplies? No that’s panicking.
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 08:39:05 am
And you're right, people should have a buffer in case things go pear-shaped, but they don't. Lack of planning. Then, everyone decides to go and get that sorted. The problem is that everyone is doing it at the same time, not that everyone is doing it.
Post by: dragdeler on March 13, 2020, 08:41:44 am
Post by: IcyTea31 on March 13, 2020, 08:52:07 am
Apparently nowadays, any sort of preparation or deviation of the established norm is consider panicking.Less the request, more the tone it was in. The overall idea in my father's message was "you're not going to be able to go to the store in a week" more than "it's a good idea to have some extra supplies for emergencies".
Trying to build up a two week buffer of supplies? No that’s panicking.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 13, 2020, 08:52:33 am
Post by: McTraveller on March 13, 2020, 09:06:57 am
There are rumors about constription hereWas that supposed to be "conscription" or "constipation"?
I'm not sure what either of those things have to do with panic buying of toilet paper.
(My opinion: "everyone trying to build up a reserve of basic supplies at the same time" is pretty much the definition of panic.)
Post by: mko on March 13, 2020, 09:16:36 am
* Big enough so you can skip shopping for about week or two, maybe a month. Small enough that you consume everything before anything will be spoiled.
Post by: JWNoctis on March 13, 2020, 09:19:14 am
Right now I just want to buy some extra toilet paper, because I haven't seen any in the shops for a while. I don't count that as panicking, but planning. You gotta take into account what everyone else is doing, and sometimes that unavoidably means you jump in and get some of the in-shortage stuff yourself, because wiping your ass with newspaper isn't pleasant.
Way off-topic now, but sometimes I really do wonder why Asian-style electric bidets are not more common, being way much more hygienic and comfortable et cetera.
But yes...hang on tight, it won't last forever, and at this point rationing what you already have and stay safely at home is probably much better than braving a crowded mart where there might be nothing left for today, even if you do have face masks and goggles - supply chains will catch up: it takes much more than even this to collapse that outright.
Post by: Max™ on March 13, 2020, 09:24:32 am
A vaccine won't even exist realistically until next year, so forget any of the incredibly stupid statements made by assholes like the president about them hurrying one out, hurrying IS doing it in a year.
Nobody has immunities to this, unlike the flu where there is a built up resistance among the population.
The flu is fairly easy to prevent spread, comparitively, normal flu spread doesn't involve: person coughs across room, droplet lands on counter, days later you touch counter and scratch nose, a week later you start coughing. COVID-19 adds that exciting twist where just avoiding being around coughing people isn't enough, simply being where they WERE might end up infecting you, so wash your goddamn hands and sanitize surfaces.
Masks help prevent coughed droplets from getting in/out, but they also make it harder to touch your face and it is far too often ignored that this is a vector to worry about, you touched your face just now without thinking about it probably. It happens a lot, I stroke my beard all the time and have to remind myself constantly to chill that shit out right now.
Flu doesn't have the same number of people drowning in their own lungs as this does, and usually we spread flu cases out over a broad hump so we can deal with extreme reactions easier, but everybody is gonna end up getting this around the same time. For every 100 that come down with it, 2 or 3 may end up needing ventilation or more intensive care. If we had started preparing for this earlier we could have spread out the hump and cycle people in and out of intensive care situations a few a time without overloading capacity.
...if.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 13, 2020, 09:28:46 am
(My opinion: "everyone trying to build up a reserve of basic supplies at the same time" is pretty much the definition of panic.)The idea was to do it before everyone else is doing it.
As a species, we all seem to be more reactive than proactive
nobody could have seen this coming!!
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 09:43:34 am
Right now I just want to buy some extra toilet paper, because I haven't seen any in the shops for a while. I don't count that as panicking, but planning. You gotta take into account what everyone else is doing, and sometimes that unavoidably means you jump in and get some of the in-shortage stuff yourself, because wiping your ass with newspaper isn't pleasant.
Way off-topic now, but sometimes I really do wonder why Asian-style electric bidets are not more common, being way much more hygienic and comfortable et cetera.
But yes...hang on tight, it won't last forever, and at this point rationing what you already have and stay safely at home is probably much better than braving a crowded mart where there might be nothing left for today, even if you do have face masks and goggles - supply chains will catch up: it takes much more than even this to collapse that outright.
Ah no, I should be alright. You see, I have two 24 hour supermarkets within 20 minutes walk, and it's the weekend now so I'm going to trek there around 2:30 am, which is right after they finish stocking. This depends on the extent of the supply problems though, there might be shortages further up the supply chain then I'm out of luck.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 13, 2020, 09:45:30 am
The idea was to do it before everyone else is doing it.
Yeah, I should have got Covid months ago...
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 09:47:44 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 13, 2020, 10:02:57 am
Yesterday the goverment issued additional nationwide measures.
Gatherings of 100+ people are banned, public events cancelled, universities cancel all lectures, people are advised not to use public transport or visit elderly.
Parliament needs to convene about if they are still allowed to convene, since they are also more than 100 people (150).
At noon, a lot shelves in the supermarkets were empty or nearly so.
Post by: Iduno on March 13, 2020, 10:55:20 am
Post by: Ulfarr on March 13, 2020, 11:04:08 am
Schools and universities have been closed since a few days ago and as of yesterday the government has issued an order for certain places (theaters, cinemas, gyms, courts of law, large venues etc) to halt their operations as well. One of the largest shopping malls in Athens closed today because one of the coronavirus patients had visited it recently. Rumor has it that most of the retail shops (everything except supermarkets* and pharmacies) are going to halt operations in the upcoming days.
In addition to the above, the Ministry of Health declared that they are looking to hire up to 2000 extra (medical) personel.
*a friend of mine that works in one of those, said people have already started to panic-buying.
edit: With the total number of confirmed cases at 190, the lockdown now extends to all shopping malls, bars, cafes, restaurants and beauty salons.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 13, 2020, 11:09:42 am
This is after interacting with Brazil's Bolsonaro and his people.
Bolsonaro is Schrodinger's infectee right now with news of both positive and negative coming out.
It's very possible that Trump got it
Ivanka Trump and AG Barr recently met with an Australian official who tested positive
Reports are suggesting that Trump's gonna declare national emergency today and invoke the Stafford Act
Release the funds!
Post by: Dutchling on March 13, 2020, 11:12:04 am
⬜Trump
⬜Boris
⬜Ayatollah
⬜Duterte
⬜Orban
⬜Maduro
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 13, 2020, 11:25:18 am
Post by: Iduno on March 13, 2020, 11:27:21 am
you do realize ayatollah is not his name, right
It's Dutchling, so I would assume not.
Post by: Dutchling on March 13, 2020, 11:38:02 am
⬜Trump
⬜Boris
⬜Ayatollah
⬜Duterte
⬜Orban
⬜Maduro
⬜Obnoxious bernie brothers
Post by: TamerVirus on March 13, 2020, 11:56:53 am
Post by: Teneb on March 13, 2020, 11:57:44 am
Bolsonaro is Schrodinger's infectee right now with news of both positive and negative coming out.To Brazilian news he's said he's not infected. To foreign news he said he is. His son said he is to Fox.
So uh... yeah
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 12:05:09 pm
Kim
Putin
Xi
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 13, 2020, 12:15:05 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 13, 2020, 12:16:29 pm
Edit: just spoke with a friend who works in public healthcare. His take: the rest of the country is going to be better, probably, but Madrid and other high density sites will probably be WORSE
Post by: scriver on March 13, 2020, 01:38:13 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 13, 2020, 02:20:03 pm
Post by: Stench Guzman on March 13, 2020, 03:41:44 pm
Denmark is closing down tomorrow.
Here in the States, I'm seeing reports of panic buying of Legos.
Post by: Cyroth on March 13, 2020, 03:51:29 pm
Denmark is closing down tomorrow.
Here in the States, I'm seeing reports of panic buying of Legos.
Typical survivalist nutters. Now they're even hoarding improvised caltrops on top of their baked beans and guns.
Post by: dragdeler on March 13, 2020, 05:42:01 pm
Post by: mko on March 13, 2020, 05:44:04 pm
Sadly, in this case competence is more harmful to others than incompetence would be. See: invasion of Ukraine, shooting down of airliner and so on. Neither Russians nor Ukrainians benefitted.Dutchling forgot a few deserving leaders there.
Kim
Putin
Xi
IDK man Putin is competent. Chillingly so. But one can't say the same for most.
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 05:54:33 pm
Post by: dragdeler on March 13, 2020, 06:19:18 pm
Post by: Cyroth on March 13, 2020, 06:37:27 pm
Most restaurants and all clubs, schools and other gathering spots are closed starting next week.
Public transport has doubled the number of busses and trams during high traffic times (they're now going every 5 minutes, instead of every 10) and asks people to use the expanded availability to spread out more and stop crowding into vehicles.
A friend of mine also had his marriage (planned to be in two weeks) canceled today, by both the local church as well as the restaurant he was chartering (is that even the correct word? Rented feels wrong) for the festivities.
One one hand, good to see the "no gatherings over 50 people allowed" rule taken seriously (its 100 people in germany, but my home city decided to go the extra mile and reduced it to 50 people). On the other hand, ouch, that whole event was planned for almost 10 months.
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 06:41:21 pm
Post by: dragdeler on March 13, 2020, 06:47:18 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 06:55:07 pm
Ok why do you make me do this they're all sociopaths >:( :(....
*breathes in*
So you're saying you would take any rando over the guy that downed an airliner in like two decades? (keeping in mind that it basically takes another sociopath/psychopath to rise to that rank)
First up, "any rando" is your idea. Second, he's done a lot worse than having done just that one thing wrong in 20 years. Third, I never said anything about replacing him, I just said the downing the airline wasn't an example of "competence" because someone specifically cited that as the example.
But, in the context of this thread, it really wouldn't be that bad if Putin disappeared. Sure there's "stability" but that's like saying it's a good thing Hitler or Stalin are around because who know how the place might fall apart if those guys die.
Post by: dragdeler on March 13, 2020, 06:58:43 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 07:10:11 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/06/vladimir-putin-15-ways-he-changed-russia-world
He's brought back the Gulags. Yes, there's stability there now, because if you protest they can send you to a Siberian hard-labor camp for 5 years.
Opposition party leaders get assassinated on the front steps of the Kremlin, and there are rumors about who sent the guys, and then Putin gives that guy a medal.
The guy's a straight-up fascist and it's probably only NATO's presence preventing him going all-out and invading Poland, Belorus, Ukraine and the Baltic states openly.
Post by: delphonso on March 13, 2020, 07:17:02 pm
At this point, you can't be too safe in the US.
Post by: dragdeler on March 13, 2020, 07:28:42 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 08:48:06 pm
The system is designed to prevent any one person accumulating too much power, therefore no one person can be too effective. And arguably, that system beat all other systems, including all Strongman systems. That's why "Make America Great Again" is such a bad joke. The guy is dismantling the institutions that made America great in the first place, and is openly emulating the optics used by the tinpot dictators that fell by the wayside, such as tank parades.
Russia didn't fail because they brought in liberal democracy, it failed because they didn't build the institutions which are the bedrock of that system. You have to have the (all relatively) free press, independent judiciary, high education, good social fabric to even get started. Then you can have elections. The problem with America was that the social fabric and separation of powers have both eroded, allowing a Strongman to take control (by blind luck, not intelligent enough to seize control). The problem with Russia is that those institutions weren't really there to start with, with similar results.
Post by: coalboat on March 13, 2020, 10:43:03 pm
Both are probably very optimistic about their health.
Post by: wierd on March 13, 2020, 10:43:22 pm
Maybe we will keep darling children out after all.
Post by: Reelya on March 13, 2020, 11:33:48 pm
Post by: Cthulhu on March 13, 2020, 11:47:53 pm
Buckle up.
Post by: Guardian G.I. on March 14, 2020, 12:10:46 am
Countries with much better healthcare systems are struggling, and yet we are seemingly on top of this situation. I don't quite believe this...
Also, reportedly our medics carried out more than 10k coronavirus tests so far, which is more than in America. That's odd.
Post by: Reelya on March 14, 2020, 01:15:26 am
What they found was that the generation time averaged at 6.4 days, meaning the time to spread from one host to another. but remember that each person infects 2.4 people, not two people, so every 6.4 days the number of active infections goes up by a factor of 2.4.And this still doesn't count total infections, since you also have to keep track of everyone who was infected before, not just the x 2.4 new cases.
Previously, I guesstimated the generation time at 10 days.
So running the numbers again with the shorter generation time, then after 64 days, a single spreader will have created ... 10868 total victims.
The base rate for active infections increasing is 14.66% per day = doubling active infections every 5 days.
So right now we want to work out at what point would 100% of Americans have been infected. Adding some more spreadsheet rows ... that's around day 137 if there was only one point of origin.
You know what, maybe that's what Trump meant by saying the next 8 weeks are critical ... perhaps he already knows everyone will have had it within the next 8 weeks.
Post by: MaximumZero on March 14, 2020, 02:16:48 am
My homestate in the US suspended school for a month.Michigan just did this today.
Post by: Ulfarr on March 14, 2020, 02:32:25 am
The goverment issued a new order, closing pretty much everything that has a potential to gather any amount of people. So far the only bussinesses that are allowed to operate are small (individual) shops, delivery/take-away only restaurants/cafes/etc, public/private health care institutes, and (super)markets. And with the possible exemption of public hospitals, everything else must take any meassure necessary to avoid servicing more than 5 people at the same time.
Spoiler: And a bit of humor within this whole shitstorm (click to show/hide)
Post by: Reelya on March 14, 2020, 04:54:25 am
He had a slight cough already and complained about it, and an Aussie said "That's not a virus" *cough* *cough* "that's a virus"
Post by: scriver on March 14, 2020, 05:46:48 am
But alas, it was too late. Quick wit is not my forte.
Post by: McTraveller on March 14, 2020, 06:44:18 am
What I mean is this: with a constraint that human populations generally live on a surface, interactions can only occur in two dimensions. Thus people only have "access" to other people within some physical radius over a given population. When you have a small number of people infected, the perimeter of the area they cover each day is pretty large compared to its area - so the "new people" they touch is large and infection growth rate is high.
But the more people are infected, the perimeter of exposure starts getting less and less compared to the area. People inside the area are already exposed, and people outside are not. Put another way - if you are inside a geographic region where exposure is high, isn't R0 mathematically guaranteed to be reduced, since each person has less opportunity to infect a unique person (that is, each infected is "competing" with more uninfected to infect).
This means that infection rate is limited by the "mixing rate" of people at the perimeter. If people can travel far (e.g., via airplane) and start new infection areas, this increases perimeter to surface area again and so can look like "faster" growth for a while. Or is the perimeter the "exposure" radius, with a growth rate constrained to something like R^2, but since "activity" is delayed, when the active exposures appear, they really are always "exponential" until they catch up with the exposure boundary?
Post by: Lidku on March 14, 2020, 06:57:26 am
First they did it with Italians by saying they got "return" cases from Italians going to China (wtf would anyone go to China in a middle of a virus crisis?), then they used their corrupt influence to have media houses bash Iran and saying they've been hiding their numbers (Even though Iran is way more honest than China). Not only that China is known for botched safety protocols- SARS literally escaped from their facilities two times. Now the virus (which was in China since November 2019) main epicentre was in literally in Wuhan, Hubei. The same province and same city as China's only BSL4-Laboratory. CCP is a danger to humanity.
Post by: wierd on March 14, 2020, 06:59:08 am
(/sarcasm)
In the endless search for more profit, the facility accepted a new resident from a local hospital that has had active COVID patients there.
She was reporting a cough and a sore throat this morning. Awesome.
We shall see.
Post by: dragdeler on March 14, 2020, 07:20:45 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2020, 08:07:55 am
Consider, on the 24th of February Italy had 227 cases. 10 days later they had 3000.
On the 4th of March, Spain had 228 cases. 10 days later we have 5700 and counting.
We´re fuuuuuuuuuuuuucked. Last week´s political rallies have wrecked us.
Post by: Frumple on March 14, 2020, 08:39:12 am
Post by: delphonso on March 14, 2020, 08:42:01 am
Stay safe, wierd. A healthy immune system includes not stressing yourself out about possibly being infected.
Post by: Lidku on March 14, 2020, 09:06:55 am
Post by: delphonso on March 14, 2020, 09:41:23 am
Post by: Lidku on March 14, 2020, 09:54:34 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2020, 10:11:45 am
Especially now its trying to shift blame on the virus origin.
Are you seriously blaming the Chinese for having conspiracy theories? Don´t you remember that three weeks ago we had people in Europe and US spreading bullshit about the virus being a botched bioweapon? ::)
Face it: someone ate a pangolin, and shit hit the fan. It´s unfortunate, but people eat disgusting things all the world over.
I think China managed the situation fairly well all things considered, and they´re about the only country providing relief and technical support to Europe at the moment (most notably to Italy. Though I hope we get some equipment in Spain as well. Odds are by next week we´ll be *worse* than Italy). That some rando spewed some bullshit about the coronavirus being tailor-made is no worse than the bullshit about the coronavirus being Xi Jinping´s master plan for.... what exactly, cutting CO2 emissions?
One more thing: the way China managed this and is helping to manage this, and the way Trump is managing this on the other side of the Pacific... I think Donald´s trade war with China is unlikely to end up the way he thinks.
In other news: I get the impression that in Spain there is a complete denial on just how badly things are going. Compliance with the self-quarantines is so-so and apparently the media think everything has been solved already because, "unlike the French" (actual quote from the news) we have a hashtag about staying at home.
I´m considering whether it would be better to try to weather the storm here, or attempt to fly to Ireland before external flights get locked down.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 14, 2020, 10:23:04 am
I mean, Wuhan suffered a healthcare collapse scenario that's now playing out in Italy and the population density is much much greater in China. It's a logical conclusion. How many people died of coronavirus in China? Nobody will ever know. But for now, the blame game does nobody no favors.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 14, 2020, 10:37:09 am
It's not like you'll ever be able to know the difference between a natural novel strain and a bioweapon. Maybe in 50 years when someone involved in brewing them is on death's door and doesn't give a fuck anymore. Given how covid seems so perfectly formed to slaughter old humans and inflict organ damage on young ones...
Ebolavirus was never described until 1976. Just saying.
Post by: mko on March 14, 2020, 11:37:26 am
Testing is still not done at any significant scale, so we have far more cases than reported.
-----
Face it: someone ate a pangolin, and shit hit the fan. It´s unfortunate, but people eat disgusting things all the world over.In China they do it far more often than in Europe/USA (and we have industrial farm where cows were feed using powdered bone of dead cows and we ended with mad cow disease - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_spongiform_encephalopathy ).
But yes, China is unusually prone to producing new diseases and eradicating rare species.
I think China managed the situation fairly well all things consideredIf you ignore initial coverup.
We 100% have bioweapons running around that people think are natural diseases.[citation needed] (speculation with someone who is expert in this topic would count)
And speculation "it is likely that" is NOT allowing you to claim to be 100% sure.
And why it would be relevant even if true? This disease is not suitable as bioweapon at all, nearly all characteristics are opposite to what we would have for runaway bioweapon.
Ebolavirus was never described until 1976. Just saying.And why it is relevant at all? Stop with your conspiracy theories pls.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 14, 2020, 11:58:34 am
And now we wait.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 14, 2020, 12:15:20 pm
All I am stating is facts and possibilities, and the fact that if it were the case it would take a categorical failure on all levels of government security for there ever to be publicly available evidence.We 100% have bioweapons running around that people think are natural diseases.[citation needed] (speculation with someone who is expert in this topic would count)
And speculation "it is likely that" is NOT allowing you to claim to be 100% sure.
And why it would be relevant even if true? This disease is not suitable as bioweapon at all, nearly all characteristics are opposite to what we would have for runaway bioweapon.Ebolavirus was never described until 1976. Just saying.And why it is relevant at all? Stop with your conspiracy theories pls.
Post by: Lidku on March 14, 2020, 12:17:20 pm
Post by: mko on March 14, 2020, 12:29:30 pm
All I am stating is facts and possibilities, and the fact that if it were the case it would take a categorical failure on all levels of government security for there ever to be publicly available evidence.We 100% have bioweapons running around that people think are natural diseases.[citation needed] (speculation with someone who is expert in this topic would count)
And speculation "it is likely that" is NOT allowing you to claim to be 100% sure.
And why it would be relevant even if true? This disease is not suitable as bioweapon at all, nearly all characteristics are opposite to what we would have for runaway bioweapon.Ebolavirus was never described until 1976. Just saying.And why it is relevant at all? Stop with your conspiracy theories pls.
You stated thing that are not a fact, and were stated as certainty not as a possibility. There is no confirmed or even credibly suspicious case of novel illness caused by bioweapon escaping laboratory and creating a sustained infection.
There were confirmed cases of bioweapon causing issues, but were neither sustained nor novel illnesses. (Soviets managed to do it with anthrax, multiple times).
For all novel illnesses that appeared "reee bioweapon reee" is a bottom tier conspiracy theory with no supporting evidence (as soon as evidence appears I will change my mind, with strength matching strength of evidence - opinion of experts are form of evidence).
Your "All I am stating is facts and possibilities" claim is lie. Your bioweapon claims that are supposedly 100% certain are pure speculation. Stop spreading misinformation.
Post by: Teneb on March 14, 2020, 12:40:39 pm
First: despite the first detected case of covid-19 being two weeks ago in Brazil... we've had a total of 0 deaths. So that's good, and also lets us lefties tell liberals who want to privatize healthcare to shut the fuck up.
Second: The fasicst-president says he totally doesn't have Corona, no siree, and Fox News is full of fake news... except he just went into a 7-day quarantine and is being tested again.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 14, 2020, 01:11:22 pm
Post by: andrea on March 14, 2020, 01:13:33 pm
Post by: Jopax on March 14, 2020, 01:44:03 pm
It's quite fascinating how profit seeking can override any basic decency humans have.
Post by: dragdeler on March 14, 2020, 01:55:33 pm
Post by: Cthulhu on March 14, 2020, 02:18:00 pm
It all balances out.
Post by: mko on March 14, 2020, 02:26:57 pm
Price gouging is just correcting supply-demand discrepancies. If they charge more than the market can bear even amid the distortions, well, a lead pipe is an economic instrument too.(1) price gougers, especially during panic, often make situation worse
It all balances out.
(2) short-term total profit is not the most important, even in case of caring only about economy preventing needless deaths is more proftiable
----
It works as you describe only in cases of price-gougers correctly identifying supply-demand discrepancies and not making the worse.
It is typical that they buy too many items, fail to sell them all, with lower number of items reaching consumers (and in case of life saving items it causes death).
It is typical that their buying triggers panic, making markets less effective.
They also disrupt supply chains. In many cases price gougers intentionally create panic.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2020, 02:41:46 pm
But I´m kidding myself. In truth there were a lot of documents circulating among my peers, which ended up getting back to me. Information leaflets about coronavirus that were downplaying the real risk by a lot. A couple of weeks ago the health emergency department was saying that we´d have a handful of cases at most. I believed them. Many of us believed them. Because we were too damn used to taking the communiques from the ministry at face value, because this is so out of normal that it was easier to believe this, and because the lie contains enough of a nugget of truth to be believeable (for most people it will indeed be a flu. THe problem is that it spreads so rapidly that the relatively low percentage of very sick people overwhelms and crashes healthcare systems).
Many people still don´t believe this. I posted some projections in a medical forum which show that the way we are going Spain is going to fare worse than Italy very soon. I was booed. Way too many people still don´t see how bad this is going to be.
I don´t know what is going to happen, either here at a societal level or to me personally. Maybe this week´s measures will be effective early on or maybe not (I´m leaning on no because people were lukewarm, and because Italy managed to slow the spread but they´re still reeling during seven days of strict quarantine).
Post by: Cthulhu on March 14, 2020, 03:17:34 pm
It works as you describe only in cases of price-gougers correctly identifying supply-demand discrepancies and not making the worse.
It is typical that they buy too many items, fail to sell them all, with lower number of items reaching consumers (and in case of life saving items it causes death).
It is typical that their buying triggers panic, making markets less effective.
They also disrupt supply chains. In many cases price gougers intentionally create panic.
That's what the lead pipe is for.
I'm suspicious of this "flattening the curve" thing that's going around. You'll notice they never put numbers on their little graphs they post. 300 million people in the US, assuming 10% get infected over 9 months (which seems low), that's 30 million infections, 6 million needing at least short hospital trips, and 1.5 million needing intensive care or they'll die. The US has like 180,000 or so ventilators, and the people on them are going to be on them for at least two weeks, probably close to four. Even assuming the rate of infection is smooth and not a bell curve, that's basically the entire US ventilator capacity permanently locked up for the entire 9 months. No wiggle room whatsoever.
How flat does the curve need to be? Are we gonna be social distancing and keeping everyone home from school and work for the next year? Longer?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2020, 03:28:09 pm
Post by: mko on March 14, 2020, 03:39:08 pm
I'm suspicious of this "flattening the curve" thing that's going around. You'll notice they never put numbers on their little graphs they post. 300 million people in the US, assuming 10% get infected over 9 months (which seems low), that's 30 million infections, 6 million needing at least short hospital trips, and 1.5 million needing intensive care or they'll die. The US has like 180,000 or so ventilators, and the people on them are going to be on them for at least two weeks, probably close to four. Even assuming the rate of infection is smooth and not a bell curve, that's basically the entire US ventilator capacity permanently locked up for the entire 9 months. No wiggle room whatsoever.Flattening the curve is helpful, but it seems that we are unlikely to avoid overload. Maybe South Korea and Singapore (maybe). We are going to look at "hospitals overloaded, N thousands die due to missing equipment and missing doctors" vs "hospitals overloaded but not so badly, M thousands die due to missing equipment and missing doctors".
How flat does the curve need to be? Are we gonna be social distancing and keeping everyone home from school and work for the next year? Longer?
Number of extra deaths with flattened curve will be lower, but not 0. Note also that typical "flatten the curve" images show 0 usage before crisis. This is true, but in a quite gruesome form.
Assuming hospital overload badly it means that many treatments will be skipped or postponed. You were supposed to have operation? Now it is later, hopefully you will survive. Car crash, victim needs team of 20 medics for operation? This 20 people are more needed to treat Covid19, this way they will save 10 people, not 1. Car crash victim is not operated and dies.
Official triage instructions for Italy were including "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care." type of recommendations (not sure how often it reached this point) - see https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
Post by: TamerVirus on March 14, 2020, 03:41:51 pm
Is that true, CharimanPoo?
Post by: Iduno on March 14, 2020, 04:03:56 pm
Flattening the curve is helpful, but it seems that we are unlikely to avoid overload. Maybe South Korea and Singapore (maybe). We are going to look at "hospitals overloaded, N thousands die due to missing equipment and missing doctors" vs "hospitals overloaded but not so badly, M thousands die due to missing equipment and missing doctors".
Number of extra deaths with flattened curve will be lower, but not 0. Note also that typical "flatten the curve" images show 0 usage before crisis. This is true, but in a quite gruesome form.
Assuming hospital overload badly it means that many treatments will be skipped or postponed. You were supposed to have operation? Now it is later, hopefully you will survive. Car crash, victim needs team of 20 medics for operation? This 20 people are more needed to treat Covid19, this way they will save 10 people, not 1. Car crash victim is not operated and dies.
Official triage instructions for Italy were including "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care." type of recommendations (not sure how often it reached this point) - see https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
What they should have is two different networks of hospitals, one for people who are sick and another for people who aren't
Post by: Frumple on March 14, 2020, 04:05:58 pm
I think everyone is lying. A lot. About many things. Or rather we're getting partial truths.I mean, probably a lot of that is less lying than "don't actually know". Some of that don't know seems to be goddamn intentional (See the US or the UK), but fog of war, so to speak -- incomplete information, communication inefficiencies, and so on -- could easily explain a lot of the stuff we've been seeing, without having to involve dishonesty or malice.
... that said, we also have pathological liars as several countries' heads of state right now, so there's probably plenty of lies going around, too. Eh.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2020, 04:07:49 pm
Word is that Spain and France are going into lockdown like Italy.Half and half
Is that true, CharimanPoo?
That is: you can´t move between the different regions and you´re supposed to stay at home except for work, buying food, or getting money out of the bank. We´ll see how this shapes up.
´
I think we´re probably going to be worse off than Italy, soon. And I think the goverment and the media are trying to cover this up. They´re playing the numbers as if we started at the same time, when for practical intents and purposes, the pandemic hit the Spanish mainland much later than Italy.
In fact if you go for similar numbers of cases in one and the other case, which I did, we have an eleven-day delay with Italy (they had 229 cases on the 24th of February, we had 228 on the 4th of March). If you go forward from those dates Spain is infecting up waaaaay faster than Italy. Probably because we did things as bad as Italy, and some far worse.
I think my friend was possibly partially right though. Population density is lower in the periphery. Most of the cases are in Madrid and Barcelona, with a moderate size cluster in the southern Basque Country. I
And I´m still very unsure as to what is going to happen here in general, and to myself in particular. I´ll continue with my paperwork and we´ll see what happens.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2020, 07:47:54 pm
Quote
I made enough of a ruckus for the issue to come up in national media. They admitted that indeed, we´re doing worse than Italy. That´s something I guess.
Many people still don´t believe this. I posted some projections in a medical forum which show that the way we are going Spain is going to fare worse than Italy very soon. I was booed. Way too many people still don´t see how bad this is going to be.
On another subject: is anybody here knowledgeable about filter standards? I´m considering acquiring some equipment myself, and I´d like some feedback. I´m considering something more serious than standard disposable hepa masks too.
Post by: Reelya on March 14, 2020, 11:30:37 pm
Hopefully the health authorities have enough time to prepare here for the full onset of winter. More or less, if Australia can make it through the winter months without everyone getting infected then we can avoid the worst of it. Worst-case scenario is that everyone here catches it around winter and we have upwards of a quarter of a million casualties (1% of population).
Post by: Toady One on March 15, 2020, 12:55:28 am
Post by: Reelya on March 15, 2020, 03:16:10 am
Recent news was that whitegoods seller have all run out of freezers, so all the locusts bought additional freezer space. and you know what that means? renewed space to panic-buy even more categories of stuff.
Things I could get until a few days ago, but now those sections are plundered, or 80% empty
- meat (I mean, there was literally no meat and they put shutters on all the fridge displays. People got every last scrap of meat, even the weird stuff)
- eggs (the whole egg fridgerated display area of the supermarket had shutters down)
- cheese - they only had those fake-cheese plastic-wrapped slices now. It's surreal - every size of every type of every brand of cheese 100% sold out since Friday, when it was fully stocked. And that includes cream cheese, cottage cheese, shredded cheese, block cheese, sliced cheese etc etc.
- cordial (area was full on friday, noticeably more empty today)
- cereal (down to some weird brands)
- biscuits / crackers - pretty much all major brands completely gone now
And I'm sure I missed a bunch of other things. There's still stuff in the freezer section but I'm betting that next weekend the same locusts will swarm in and start picking up categories they missed on the last swarming.
Canned goods, rice, pasta, bottled water, paper towels/tissue, toilet paper are still non-existent but the main locust swarm has moved on to new categories.
The stores here are starting to resemble Russian supermarkets ala 1976, which were emptied for a similar demand-side reason - there was absolutely no drop in supply, the Russians were produce just as much through their 1970s shopping crisis as ever. What happened was that (likely due to the OPEC oil price shock) the the price of Russian oil rose, and the country became flush with money. This lead to inflation, but rather than increase production, they used price controls to combat the inflation.
This lead to shortages, which lead to hoarding and black market price-gouging. When that failed, they turned to rationing - the famous bread-lines were to buy bread at the subsidized price. Which is actually all in line with socialist thought - why should you increase production of bread or raise the price, when the nation is already making enough bread for everyone, and the price is reasonable? The problem is that this "only make what you need and price it reasonably" thing fails to account for people wanting more than they actually need. So then you have to resort to rationing, which is very inefficient.
Post by: coalboat on March 15, 2020, 03:36:14 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 03:39:38 am
https://mobile.twitter.com/jhall/status/1238946029829001217?fbclid=iwar0sqrvubwqbc8qi-zhfsivvzhd46eqaywsp-a1imzi-xtg0wfjd1s23gte
Meanwhile the outbreak in Italy keeps getting more grim. One thing in which we are not following the italians (yet at least. Maybe never I hope) is that their rate of severe cases is much worse than anywhere else, and nobody really knows why. Could be some weird selection bias I guess?
At least their curve *is* beginning to drop 😒
Post by: Quarque on March 15, 2020, 03:47:26 am
Well, shoppageddon is getting worse, even compared to 2 days ago.Local anecdote. On my expedition to the supermarket I witness two older ladies stuffing three kilograms of sugar into their already bulging shopping cart. I can´t stop myself and blurt out: "If I were you I'd get five more kilos, just in case." In response they complain they can't, because there is no sugar left.
One thing in which we are not following the italians (yet at least. Maybe never I hope) is that their rate of severe cases is much worse than anywhere else, and nobody really knows why. Could be some weird selection bias I guess?Not surprising at all. They're reserving their test capacity for people with severe symptoms.
Yes, that means the reported number of cases is fiction.
Post by: Ulfarr on March 15, 2020, 04:20:41 am
Not surprising at all. They're reserving their test capacity for people with severe symptoms.
From whatever info I could gather, we are doing the same:
Mild symptoms -> self quarrantine
Serious symptoms -> General test for coronavirus relations
Severe symptoms or confirmed case of coronavirus -> Specific test for COVID-19
Post by: Lidku on March 15, 2020, 05:28:54 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2020, 05:44:10 am
Hotels will be turned into emergency hospitals.
The army will be deployed to guard supermarkets.
The army will build emergency hospitals.
Privatized hospitals will be forced to treat patients for free.
Production companies will be forced to produce goods for the healthcare services if so required.
Dominic Cummings is trying to persuade Uber and deliveroo to deliver food to sick and elderly.
The minister of Health says this will be the greatest mobilization the country has seen since WW2.
Post by: Reelya on March 15, 2020, 05:50:12 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2020, 07:14:18 am
In Belgium, all pubs are closed now, so the Belgians flock to our border towns to come grab a drink.
Post by: McTraveller on March 15, 2020, 07:30:04 am
Basically this means this virus is "everywhere."
I still don't understand the extremity of emotion and response - if it's really this "everywhere" that tells me two things: the official cases are way lower than the actual cases, and by induction the overall severity is much less than people fear. If you have that many "unknown" or "mild" cases - how can the probability of severity be at the high end of the estimates?
I've also not seen any data that satisfies my curiosity and data integrity about how much of the hospital load is people with mild cases just going to the hospitals out of fear and clogging up the system to get tested. I mean in my family, my wife and I are like "unless we can't breathe, there is no point to going to the doctor; otherwise we'll just do the same stuff we do for the flu / severe cold." Which incidentally we do have in my house - runny noses, phlegm, etc.
Post by: Frumple on March 15, 2020, 07:39:37 am
Post by: dragdeler on March 15, 2020, 07:44:05 am
Post by: mko on March 15, 2020, 07:47:07 am
I still don't understand the extremity of emotion and response - if it's really this "everywhere" that tells me two things: the official cases are way lower than the actual cases, and by induction the overall severity is much less than people fear. If you have that many "unknown" or "mild" cases - how can the probability of severity be at the high end of the estimates?See Italy. The main fear is that within week or two many people at the same time will need medical attention, more than is available.
And if it's really this "everywhere", it does not mean that everyone is ill. But it soon may happen (OK, not everyone but say 50% of population).
Post by: TamerVirus on March 15, 2020, 07:48:32 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 15, 2020, 07:57:59 am
or lack of guidelinesWhy do you say that?
Post by: McTraveller on March 15, 2020, 07:59:31 am
See Italy. The main fear is that within week or two many people at the same time will need medical attention, more than is available.Is it possible (or reasonable) to extrapolate Italy (or any country) as a general case, rather than due to a specific cause? Or is Italy some kind of special outlier?
And if it's really this "everywhere", it does not mean that everyone is ill. But it soon may happen (OK, not everyone but say 50% of population).
I work professionally in a field that has to understand the difference between common-cause (those that effect a population purely randomly) and special-cause (effects are non-random) events. So naturally I try to understand both sampling biases and attempts to categorize things as truly random versus non-random. Note that non-random doesn't mean "not probabilistic" of course...
Yes Italy does seem to represent "worst case" at the moment. But what is the likelihood that any particular geography will be at (or exceed) the current worst case? Even in the US, it's likely to be very different per urban area. When every urban area thinks they are going to be the worst, that's not reasonable...
I guess in my mind there's a difference in having a plan in case things are worst case versus assuming that the worst case is inevitable. The former is prudence, the latter leads to hysteria. I just want peace!
Post by: Quarque on March 15, 2020, 08:05:53 am
The way I see it, they're botching it horribly.
- Almost no one is being tested anymore. There are not nearly enough testing materials. Wait, wasn´t that why people were bashing Trump?
- We officially gave up on containment and try to mitigate instead, against WHO advice.
- Mitigation rules are soft too. Schools not closed, no enforcing, just advice to stay home "if you feel sick". Employers can still demand that you keep working if you have, say, a cough.
- Oh, and our Intensive Care capacity per capita is among the lowest in Europe.
In 2-3 weeks, we're going to make Italy look like a great place to be. :-[
Post by: Frumple on March 15, 2020, 08:07:22 am
I guess in my mind there's a difference in having a plan in case things are worst case versus assuming that the worst case is inevitable. The former is prudence, the latter leads to hysteria. I just want peace!Dude, you're not going to get peace when something that's best case multiple times as deadly as the flu is gearing up to scythe its way through the country's elderly lol
Post by: McTraveller on March 15, 2020, 08:12:03 am
Quote from: CSLewis
On Living in an Atomic Age (1948)
If we are going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things — praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts — not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They might break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds.
Post by: mko on March 15, 2020, 08:19:51 am
AFAIK there are no indicators that Italy is very unusually susceptible. More of old people, more smokers is making situation worse, but it is not going to be "just flu" elsewhere (and flu kills 300k-600k people per year https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html ).See Italy. The main fear is that within week or two many people at the same time will need medical attention, more than is available.Is it possible (or reasonable) to extrapolate Italy (or any country) as a general case, rather than due to a specific cause? Or is Italy some kind of special outlier?
And if it's really this "everywhere", it does not mean that everyone is ill. But it soon may happen (OK, not everyone but say 50% of population).
Official confirmed case number is not worth much, but growth appears to be quite similar in different countries. It seems to indicate that infection rate may be similar.
Yes Italy does seem to represent "worst case" at the moment. But what is the likelihood that any particular geography will be at (or exceed) the current worst case? Even in the US, it's likely to be very different per urban area. When every urban area thinks they are going to be the worst, that's not reasonable...Even something similar to Italy would be bad.
Number of recorded cases is growing, on average by 17% per day (note, it indicates also growing test capacity). They reached 1400 confirmed deaths, not sure what is current expected death count. (for comparison - each year 3300 die in Italy in traffic accidents, 650 000 die in total, so even with extreme reaction that was delayed we can expect noticeable increase in death rate).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Italy#Vital_statistics_since_1900[36][37][38]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy
I guess in my mind there's a difference in having a plan in case things are worst case versus assuming that the worst case is inevitable. The former is prudence, the latter leads to hysteria. I just want peace!I think that current attempts is planning to avoid or reduce worst case. Even UK in their substandard "plan" that got scrapped almost immediately was trying to avoid the worst.
----
(removed some posts. three of you should refamiliarize yourself with the forum guidelines.)Thanks! (hopefully none was mine)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 08:26:35 am
I've already before. The reason why Italy is much more "severe" is because they don't have corrupt institutions (atleast relatively) like the CCP and even Iran. They aren't hiding the death count/fibbing numbers to save face. Whats happening in Italy happened in Wuhan already. We should've heeded what was happening in China since the beginning. I feel very scared for Italy. They should've never been caught up in all this. :(In Spain we don't have the same severity rate, either. Testing policy is the same as Italy.
Numbers dont fit but I dont want to make big assumptions about doctored numbers just yet.
::) On the other hand since we've been lied to by everyone about everything so far I'd not be too surprised either. Yesterday news made me think of North Korean propaganda reels.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 15, 2020, 08:33:09 am
Nurses have come out on social media and on the news complaining about a lack of protocol in treating Covid19 patients such as what protective measures to take, isolation set up and general confusion.or lack of guidelinesWhy do you say that?
https://www.nytimes.com./2020/03/05/us/coronavirus-nurses.html
https://www.nationalnursesunited.org/press/survey-nations-frontline-registered-nurses-shows-hospitals-unprepared-covid-19
But this is the US, so different hospitals have different levels of preparation
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 08:45:16 am
People *are* the same though. Despite all that has happened in the last 48 hours you still see people out partying or jogging.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 09:14:27 am
Two problems with this:
- if we do this, then you might list other diseases (milder or more severe) as covid. We wont know how accurate severity reports are.
- what about treatment? Even if you disregard specific agents showing up, there *are* things you can try. Are we going to treat anyone with severe pneumonia as if it was covid?
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2020, 10:01:11 am
Post by: Footkerchief on March 15, 2020, 10:35:54 am
I've already before. The reason why Italy is much more "severe" is because they don't have corrupt institutions (atleast relatively) like the CCP and even Iran. They aren't hiding the death count/fibbing numbers to save face. Whats happening in Italy happened in Wuhan already. We should've heeded what was happening in China since the beginning. I feel very scared for Italy. They should've never been caught up in all this. :(
The reason Italy has higher death counts than China is that China built hospitals overnight, while Italy ran out of hospital beds and is now forced to leave at-risk patients to die.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 10:38:27 am
I think I´m losing the grip TBH.
THat´s what everyone assumed. But it doesn´t seem to be the case. It´s not just that their system is completelly bust by now. It´s that, at least going by the data, they have more severe cases than anywhere else. Nobody knows why.
The reason Italy has higher death counts than China is that China built hospitals overnight and Italy did not.
Of course it *could* be that everyone else is fudging their numbers. But when there is one odd man out I think it´s not unlikely there´s something unusual we´re not noticing about what goes on in ITaly
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 10:49:04 am
Likewise, it could be that in Italy there´s some weird overexpression of the virus receptor. WHo knows.
I guess we´ll find out.
Post by: Reelya on March 15, 2020, 10:52:03 am
I still don't understand the extremity of emotion and response - if it's really this "everywhere" that tells me two things: the official cases are way lower than the actual cases, and by induction the overall severity is much less than people fear. If you have that many "unknown" or "mild" cases - how can the probability of severity be at the high end of the estimates?See Italy. The main fear is that within week or two many people at the same time will need medical attention, more than is available.
And if it's really this "everywhere", it does not mean that everyone is ill. But it soon may happen (OK, not everyone but say 50% of population).
Yep, this.
Say there's some threshold of infected people per capita for you to hear about it through "a friend of a friend knows someone who has it", then it'd be a while before the number of deaths per capita becomes common enough for you to hear about it after that point.
However, not everyone knows they're infected so the number of actual infected in your broad "rumor circle" is probably much higher. Additionally, infection to death takes about 3 weeks. Also, if someone dies, the rumor is likely to spread further than just news about an infection. So, if you're hearing friend-of-a-friend news about infections now, then that's the tip of the iceberg in about 3 weeks any currently-infected people who are going to die will start dying, and news about that should travel further.
Also note that the number of active infections doubles roughly every 5 days, so the bulk of infections is always new infections. This further leads death numbers to lag behind total infection numbers. So the actual death rate will change with time depending on what's happening - if it's rapidly spreading the death rate will appear to drop, but that's just because the infected haven't had time to die yet - it's like a disease Ponzi Scheme. Once the disease comes under control however, the number of deaths per known infection will "shoot up" since it's not longer buffered by the new "not dead yet" infectees.
Post by: Iduno on March 15, 2020, 11:05:02 am
On another subject: is anybody here knowledgeable about filter standards? I´m considering acquiring some equipment myself, and I´d like some feedback. I´m considering something more serious than standard disposable hepa masks too.
A quick search says the Coronavirus is 0.1 microns, which is probably too small for most filters to be completely effective against. At that point, the paint filter masks or paper hospital masks are nearly as effective, because you're only really blocking whatever the virus is attached to (whatever people are coughing up). Also, once you get good enough filters that viruses stay out, it's also difficult to get air in, which has some negative side effects if you need oxygen to live.
Martinuzz, as I'm from Holland too, can you believe the response from our government?
The way I see it, they're botching it horribly.
- Almost no one is being tested anymore. There are not nearly enough testing materials. Wait, wasn´t that why people were bashing Trump?
That was mostly because he refused the tests that worked, and had someone develop an expensive test that is much less accurate. Last I heard, there was a possibility of waiting multiple weeks for results. Our not testing was intentional.
- Mitigation rules are soft too. Schools not closed, no enforcing, just advice to stay home "if you feel sick". Employers can still demand that you keep working if you have, say, a cough.
Not closing schools isn't the worst choice, as long as sick children stay home. The problem here is that the workers who will be forced to go to work sick are usually the ones who normally get treated badly: service workers. People who are handling food, talking to people, and are always around coworkers in a small area. I can't find any way in which that isn't terrible.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 11:12:29 am
Quote
A quick search says the Coronavirus is 0.1 microns, which is probably too small for most filters to be completely effective against. At that point, the paint filter masks or paper hospital masks are nearly as effective, because you're only really blocking whatever the virus is attached to (whatever people are coughing up). Also, once you get good enough filters that viruses stay out, it's also difficult to get air in, which has some negative side effects if you need oxygen to live.
FFP masks in theory are HEPA level and are able to clear most viral particles. So it would be great... if I had one.
Right now the best choices on that regard would arrive by april. Which is better than nothing but will do nothing to mitigate the risk over the next few weeks.
I¨m very much sunk into FUD myself, and losing the grip. I can tell as much.
Quote
Not closing schools isn't the worst choice, as long as sick children stay home. The problem here is that the workers who will be forced to go to work sick are usually the ones who normally get treated badly: service workers. People who are handling food, talking to people, and are always around coworkers in a small area. I can't find any way in which that isn't terrible.
There might be asymptomatic carriers that spread the disease to each other and disperse it.
This is part of this virus conundrum and what makes it so dangerous. Anyone´s individual risk is low. But it spreads so much and so fast that there will be enough misserably sick people to bring your healthcare system to it´s knees.
And at that point it doesnt really matter if you have severe coronavirus disease or not. A burst appendix can kill you just as dead
Post by: McTraveller on March 15, 2020, 11:13:12 am
Doctors in my region warned today that '50% of all corona patients that need ICU admission are below the age of 50. Do not believe that this virus is only dangerous to the elderly and sickly.'
Isn't this a "statistic that isn't false but doesn't really say anything" if we don't know how many people below the age of 50 that are infected need ICU?
It just seems alarmist. I know the sentiment is trying to say "just because you're young doesn't mean you're invincible" but I guarantee people read that as "even if I'm under 50 I have a 50/50 chance of needing to go to the ICU" which is emphatically incorrect.
Post by: SalmonGod on March 15, 2020, 11:13:27 am
Quote
French authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.
The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”
Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.
The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.
French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.
Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”
Post by: mko on March 15, 2020, 11:14:32 am
PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection)QuoteFrench authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.
The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”
Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.
The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.
French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.
Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”
----
I guess we´ll find out.Yes, I am really curious about what influenced this. I suspect cultural/travel influences (more travel of infected people between Italy and China), but genetic influence is also possible.
Still, I prefer to not bet that Italy was significant outlier. My father is in group with expected death rate of about 1% what is far too high for my taste, and I am perfectly willing to overreact rather than under react. And my gradfather and grandmother are in group with 10%+/20%+ death rate group.
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2020, 11:41:04 am
An earlier estimate by doctors is that about 10% of infected need ICU treatment.Doctors in my region warned today that '50% of all corona patients that need ICU admission are below the age of 50. Do not believe that this virus is only dangerous to the elderly and sickly.'
Isn't this a "statistic that isn't false but doesn't really say anything" if we don't know how many people below the age of 50 that are infected need ICU?
About 1/3d of our nations confirmed reported cases are in my region (north brabant). With a national total of 1135 that would be say about 375 cases, of which about 10% need hospitalization. So there'd be about 38 people in hospital in my region of whom 19 are under the age of 50.
Post by: coalboat on March 15, 2020, 01:01:58 pm
The mortality is high in Italy, but low in other European countries.
I think there's pattern here, about the high mortality in the place where it first begins to spread in a certain region.
Post by: IcyTea31 on March 15, 2020, 01:24:50 pm
PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet.This is good advice, and applies for milder diseases as well. Fever is one of the ways your body fights against an infection, so think twice about taking medicine to lower the heat if it's not truly unbearable. Symptom-reducing medicines are so you can feel better and keep some degree of productivity while sick; they don't actually speed up recovery in most cases. (At least physiologically; some studies say that "feeling better" does help, but psychosomatic effects are too person-specific to give general advice about.)
Post by: scriver on March 15, 2020, 03:59:15 pm
repeating in case someone missed previous post:PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection)QuoteFrench authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.
The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”
Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.
The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.
French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.
Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”
Is this not supposed to be it's opposite?
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2020, 04:09:51 pm
Hotels remain open, but they do have to close their dining areaes and hotel bars.
Nurseries and daycare centres will remain partially open, but only for those children whose parents work in 'essential jobs', like emergency services, healthcare, supermarket supply chains, power generation or fuel transport.
Parents in non essential jobs are expected to stay home from work to look after the kids.
Courthouses have also shut down.
Civil lawsuits and criminal cases will be postponed. Only those cases that need to be served because of legal max terms will still take place.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 15, 2020, 04:27:14 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 15, 2020, 04:32:50 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 15, 2020, 04:37:23 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 04:59:56 pm
There is a lot of lack of knowledge about all this, and a lot of FUD, but paracetamol does indeed reduce fever without antiinflamatory effects.repeating in case someone missed previous post:PSA in case this info hasn't been shared here yet. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/anti-inflammatory-drugs-may-aggravate-coronavirus-infection)QuoteFrench authorities have warned that widely used over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs may worsen the coronavirus.
The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, who is a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”
Health officials point out that anti-inflammatory drugs are known to be a risk for those with infectious illnesses because they tend to diminish the response of the body’s immune system.
The health ministry added that patients should choose paracetamol – which is known in the US by the generic name acetaminophen and commonly by the brand name Tylenol – because “it will reduce the fever without counterattacking the inflammation”.
French patients have been forced to consult pharmacies since mid-January if they want to buy popular painkillers, including ibuprofen, paracetamol and aspirin, to be reminded of the risks.
Jean-Louis Montastruc, the head of pharmacology at Toulouse hospital, told RTL radio: “Anti-inflammatory drugs increase the risk of complications when there is a fever or infection.”
Is this not supposed to be it's opposite?
The advice itself is based on some number of young patients in France whose only factor in common was popping ibuprofen 600.
Whether taht´s the cause or not... who knows. I dont know. I think if I got it I´d probably go for paracetamol and weather the pain, until something to the contrary comes up
Post by: Teneb on March 15, 2020, 05:03:27 pm
Also this happened (https://twitter.com/GeorgMarques/status/1239304081262415887?s=20). Since it's in pt-br, here's the lowdown: the governor of the state of Goiás, who is both a bolsonazi and a medic, showed up in one of those protests. First he starts to compliment the ruling regime, for which he is cheered, but when he starts to talk about how the people in the protests are insanely stupid and ignorant of the rest of the world he gets booed.
Also people packed the beaches here in the state of Rio. The fashies I know are too dumb to know better, but WTF people.
Post by: Quarque on March 15, 2020, 05:59:44 pm
His goal: to make the vaccin exclusively available to Americans. For bigly profit.
I have no words. Evil of a deep dark that I have only seen in dystopic novels.
Post by: mko on March 15, 2020, 06:20:15 pm
Reportedly, Trump tried to buy up CureVac, a German company with promising early results on developing a vaccin.And apparently it ended as Greenland 2.0 and he failed. 0 gain, further loss to reputation.
His goal: to make the vaccin exclusively available to Americans. For bigly profit.
I have no words. Evil of a deep dark that I have only seen in dystopic novels.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2020, 07:12:46 pm
So not only there were fascist anti-democratic protests all over the country, including in my own damn city, but the president broke his self-imposed quarantine to... shake hands, fist bump and take selfies (holding himself the phones of others) with his crazed fanbase.
Also this happened (https://twitter.com/GeorgMarques/status/1239304081262415887?s=20). Since it's in pt-br, here's the lowdown: the governor of the state of Goiás, who is both a bolsonazi and a medic, showed up in one of those protests. First he starts to compliment the ruling regime, for which he is cheered, but when he starts to talk about how the people in the protests are insanely stupid and ignorant of the rest of the world he gets booed.
Also people packed the beaches here in the state of Rio. The fashies I know are too dumb to know better, but WTF people.
It´s our own stupid that is doing us in. Shit, social distancing is shown to work. The Chinese did most of the hard work, we just had to follow the example, like Korea, Taiwan, HK did. This is all so big over something so stupidly avoidable.
Post by: Stench Guzman on March 15, 2020, 07:36:10 pm
Post by: Max™ on March 15, 2020, 07:45:53 pm
How badly?
Well, apparently lots of people passing through bitchbaby's shitty resort have been infected... how many is a lot?
Nobody knows. (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/15/trumps-florida-sanctuary-coronavirus-130787)
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2020, 07:48:47 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 15, 2020, 08:48:23 pm
Huh, not sure what exactly I said beyond general bitching about how badly the US is fucking this up because by Thors hammer we are completely fucking this up.
How badly?
Well, apparently lots of people passing through bitchbaby's shitty resort have been infected... how many is a lot?
Nobody knows. (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/15/trumps-florida-sanctuary-coronavirus-130787)
On the bright side, the virus might kill off the bed bugs
Post by: Greiger on March 15, 2020, 11:13:16 pm
No toiler paper,
No hand sanitizer (we found a stash of 7 mid size bottles of hand sanitizer hidden between shelves while fixing a loose endcap. No clue who put it there. It sold out within 3 minutes after putting on the shelf.)
No hand soap.
No alcohol, no aloe gel
No bottled water
No peanut butter. ?
Canned food basically ransacked still some left but choices are limited, snack foods also seem to be flying off the shelves. General cleaning supplies also getting ransacked. literally 5 packages of paper towels left in store by closing tonight.
Employees who were handling cash were wearing gloves for part of the day. Boss eventually told us to take them off because we're 'inciting panic'. 1 employee staying home self quarantining. Boss is angry about it but apparently can't do anything about it.
Post by: ZBridges on March 15, 2020, 11:15:04 pm
Start by going here if this is relevant to you: https://www.projectbaseline.com/study/covid-19/
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 12:27:08 am
I'm not "stocked" but I have enough various crap to last two or so weeks. Debating if I should really stock up though. If stocking doesn't rise from the current level it's at....things may start getting weird.
Post by: Kagus on March 16, 2020, 05:24:41 am
And trying to buy new disinfectant/sanitizer now is... Not ideal.
I had to go grocery shopping today. I don't really have the storage or the wherewithall to have a stockpile of dry food, and my freezer is about the size of a car door pocket. I tend to live 2-3 days at a time. I've got food for another week now or so, but that's still only a week, and I still had to go to the store now in order to eat the next few days. If the grocery store even had sanitizer to begin with, I certainly couldn't find any now. But I'm close to needing a trip to the pharmacy soon, so... Provided I'm not showing any signs, I guess I can do that?
I think that's one of the worst parts, the concept that you could be sick and contagious for two weeks without so much as a tickle in your throat. There's a local Facebook group of uninfected people offering to run errands and help out folks in quarantine, but how can any of us really know if we're clean?
I'm not in any high-risk brackets; I'm not diabetic, I'm young, non-smoker, no outstanding (physical) health issues... Worst mark on my record is a history with pneumonia. I'm not scared of this thing killing me. But the idea that I could potentially be spreading this thing around to people who ARE at-risk, even through just contaminating some object in the environment and having someone touch it a couple days later, is horrifying. And death or no, getting heavily sick isn't exactly desirable most of the time.
Post by: Muz on March 16, 2020, 05:38:18 am
Post by: Bralbaard on March 16, 2020, 05:50:07 am
I'm a little worried for society. Lockdowns are going to be weird. I have supplies for 6 weeks but what's after that? How does supplies go in supermarkets during a lockdown? Who's going to buy from a supermarket? Are people going to deliver to homes? A lot of home delivery infrastructure is built around buying from a supermarket, so is it built for that?
You have supplies for six weeks? So that is why all the supermarket shelfs are empty. Please stop pillaging the stores people..
It is fairly obvious that people need to be able to buy groceries and goverments will take that into account. I can't tell what your local situation is, but where I live I think they will keep the supermarkets open, but I guess they may limit the amount of people that can enter at once, or have similar restrictions. Home deliveries could be an option too.
There are plenty of stocks in distrubution centres and warehouses. There is plenty of toiletpaper as this video shows. (In dutch, but yes, all that stuff is toiletpaper.)
https://twitter.com/dopsleutel13/status/1238546244173250560 (https://twitter.com/dopsleutel13/status/1238546244173250560)
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 05:54:26 am
I'm a little worried for society. Lockdowns are going to be weird. I have supplies for 6 weeks but what's after that? How does supplies go in supermarkets during a lockdown? Who's going to buy from a supermarket? Are people going to deliver to homes? A lot of home delivery infrastructure is built around buying from a supermarket, so is it built for that?Italy has uninterrupted supply to supermarkets, as far as deadly diseases go this is not so bad. Production and delivery of food will continue, there is no reason to expect collapse here.
It is not like it has ebola-level deadliness, many people will die but it is not plague level "half of population is dead, society collapses" level.
Also, why people think that it is a good idea to get into crowded store to get infected? Wait until we get proper distancing in stores. (many shops introduced or will introduce "no more than N people in shop at the same time, people in queue must be at least N meters apart")
You have supplies for six weeks? So that is why all the supermarket shelfs are empty. Please stop pillaging the stores people..Do not attack people too soon. I have supplies for 6 weeks because 2 weeks ago I had for 8. Keeping rolling supply of things that I will use anyway - lentils, pasta, couscous, buckwheat, canned tomatoes, spices, butter, sugar, salt, frozen meat and frozen fruits etc is a good idea.
I am not buying now (1) to allow other to buy stuff (2) I wait for social distancing to become treated seriously.
People, keep rolling reserve of food. Next crisis may be not so mild (many are, but are far more localized and not global), keep minimal reserve of necessary things.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 16, 2020, 06:18:29 am
You have supplies for six weeks? So that is why all the supermarket shelfs are empty. Please stop pillaging the stores people..Do not attack people too soon. I have supplies for 6 weeks because 2 weeks ago I had for 8. Keeping rolling supply of things that I will use anyway - lentils, pasta, couscous, buckwheat, canned tomatoes, spices, butter, sugar, salt, frozen meat and frozen fruits etc is a good idea.
I am not buying now (1) to allow other to buy stuff (2) I wait for social distancing to become treated seriously.
People, keep rolling reserve of food. Next crisis may be not so mild (many are, but are far more localized and not global), keep minimal reserve of necessary things.
Yeah sorry about that, guess I am a bit agitated because of the behaviour of people in the grocery stores right now. Obviouisly if you already have supplies for months nothing is wrong, but where I live that it is very uncommon for people to store that much at home (I usually have stocks for 3-4 days, and most people I know have similar stocks). Now however people have started hoarding massive amounts of food, if they were slightly more relaxed about the situation, this would all be a bit more manageable.
Post by: Frumple on March 16, 2020, 07:07:13 am
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 07:30:15 am
I wonder how much of this hoarded food is going to be wasted. Friend was complaining about people buying 10-20 loaves of bread at once. They are not going to eat it all.You have supplies for six weeks? So that is why all the supermarket shelfs are empty. Please stop pillaging the stores people..Do not attack people too soon. I have supplies for 6 weeks because 2 weeks ago I had for 8. Keeping rolling supply of things that I will use anyway - lentils, pasta, couscous, buckwheat, canned tomatoes, spices, butter, sugar, salt, frozen meat and frozen fruits etc is a good idea.
I am not buying now (1) to allow other to buy stuff (2) I wait for social distancing to become treated seriously.
People, keep rolling reserve of food. Next crisis may be not so mild (many are, but are far more localized and not global), keep minimal reserve of necessary things.
Yeah sorry about that, guess I am a bit agitated because of the behaviour of people in the grocery stores right now. Obviouisly if you already have supplies for months nothing is wrong, but where I live that it is very uncommon for people to store that much at home (I usually have stocks for 3-4 days, and most people I know have similar stocks). Now however people have started hoarding massive amounts of food, if they were slightly more relaxed about the situation, this would all be a bit more manageable.
And with vegetables probably most of people left it in plastic bags and it will get rotten quickly :(
I have large supply primarily because I hate shopping - I prefer to go once a week to buy fruit/vegetables. And once a month (or two) for stuff lasting for longer. Why I would go once every month for toothbrush when I can buy in bulk and wait for year or two? And I like buying stuff discounted. But only what I will actually use and would buy anyway, and I will not use more because I bought plenty of it. For example I bought sugar 6 months ago because it was deeply discounted. I still have 20kg.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 16, 2020, 07:55:41 am
I go shopping for major groceries with the car once a week, but there also is a smaller super market at walking distance. I go there to get some additional fresh groceries and vegetables, like once or twice a week, and only take the stuff I can carry walking or by bike.
But the lockdown has me worried, not for the groceries but just the whole social aspect of it.
It is quite something for people to be strictly confined to their homes, complete with surveillance and all those things. Obviously this is needed right now, but it is quite an intrusion on the freedom people normally have.
The economy is likely to be wrecked, and we might have all kinds of other issues when this is done, I just hope that our freedom will be restored to its original state when this is over, I'm not so much worried for where I live, but there are places where this may be less of a given.
Post by: Iduno on March 16, 2020, 08:25:46 am
I just hope that our freedom will be restored to its original state when this is over,
Nope. They found an excuse once, they'll keep doing it. Enjoy.
Post by: Kagus on March 16, 2020, 08:26:07 am
I'd like to, sure... I used to buy for 1-2 weeks at a time, because that's as much as I could carry in my bag and I had to walk back and forth. And before that, when I was a kid we spent some time living up in the mountains, where a sudden snow or a tree falling over could suddenly block your supply route for a good long while.
But in my current situation? It's just not particularly viable unless I feel like stacking stuff right on the floor under the table. And this place is cluttered enough already.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 16, 2020, 08:27:22 am
EARN IT actI just hope that our freedom will be restored to its original state when this is over,
Nope. They found an excuse once, they'll keep doing it. Enjoy.
The US gov is quietly trying to kill end to end encryption
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 08:34:20 am
I've got a 18m2 apartment with a single cupboard. I don't really have storage space for a long-lasting stockpile.Yeah, in that situation it would be absurd. I am renting low-end but spacious place, so I have plenty of space to store various things. And amount of things that I keep is limited.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2020, 08:58:25 am
Quote
It's been weird here. It's extremely rare that I have hand sanitizer in my stash, and this was no exception. As such, without that or disinfectant wipes, I haven't been able to keep a good barrier going (especially since I, like so many others, didn't think much over taking things particularly seriously until a few days ago). There's only so much washing my hands will do, when I can't exactly put stuff like my phone under the faucet and give it a good scrubbing (closest applicable thing I have to disinfectant is window cleaner, and... Yeah). So if I've come in contact with something that had covid-19 on it, I'm probably already infected.
Handwashing is more important than hand sanitizer
Post by: Kagus on March 16, 2020, 09:12:51 am
Being able to use hand sanitizer between uses to prevent them getting contaminated, and having some form of easy disinfectant to wipe down the less fluid-tolerant articles would help limit how much I'm spreading things around.
Like, I've got window cleaner and paper towels here at home, but that's about it. And at this point, I've probably cross-contaminated so many things in my apartment that I don't even know if there's a point trying to clean up what's already here.
I've (hopefully) got enough of a food/meds stash now that I can just isolate myself here for a week or so before needing to go out again, so I can try and make the cleaning articles a bit more accessible for next time, but yeah... So far? I haven't been doing a good job.
Post by: wierd on March 16, 2020, 09:18:16 am
Easily portable hand-washing.
In my own fun times, I had to go shopping today. I get paid bi-weekly, so I really have no choice but to buy food for 2 weeks at a time, and felt really self-conscious in the checkout line with my NORMAL GROCERIES, because it LOOKED like I was being a food hoarder. :(
Other thoughts occur to me, do you think amazon will deliver toilet paper? Looks like they do...
https://www.amazon.com/skyning-Professional-Bathroom-Degradable-Restaurant/dp/B085W4GMDR/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=toilet+paper&qid=1584368241&s=beauty&sr=1-1
Might get a papercut, but its better than being trapped in the loo.
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 09:32:47 am
I hope they refill it, because hunting and processing hoarders to catfood gives such a mess to clean up.
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 09:52:09 am
Slightly worrisome.. Cat food is nearly gone in my supermarket.Is meat also gone? Cats can eat meat. Consult to check suitability, some kinds of meat may rarely contain things harmless for humans but deadly for cats.
I hope they refill it, because hunting and processing hoarders to catfood gives such a mess to clean up.
EDIT: pork is problematic, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorabies - other restriction may apply, consult an expert
EDIT2: Before processing hoarders into cat food consult also lawyer.
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 10:21:15 am
Pig meat is selling less fast, but yeah, there's a reason that you can't get catfood made out of pork.
I can't afford buying real meat for my cats though, I live off disabilty pay, which is social minimum.
... A lawyer? What do they know about processing human beings into cat food? I think I'd get better advice at a cat food factory about the process ;)
Post by: Iduno on March 16, 2020, 10:28:06 am
Slightly worrisome.. Cat food is nearly gone in my supermarket.
It's cheap and I like the taste.
Edit: I just noticed the page number, so I'll add something more true and also on-topic. Italy is telling people not to have gang-bangs during Corona virus.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 16, 2020, 10:29:27 am
Post by: Muz on March 16, 2020, 10:53:53 am
I'm a little worried for society. Lockdowns are going to be weird. I have supplies for 6 weeks but what's after that? How does supplies go in supermarkets during a lockdown? Who's going to buy from a supermarket? Are people going to deliver to homes? A lot of home delivery infrastructure is built around buying from a supermarket, so is it built for that?
You have supplies for six weeks? So that is why all the supermarket shelfs are empty. Please stop pillaging the stores people..
It is fairly obvious that people need to be able to buy groceries and goverments will take that into account. I can't tell what your local situation is, but where I live I think they will keep the supermarkets open, but I guess they may limit the amount of people that can enter at once, or have similar restrictions. Home deliveries could be an option too.
There are plenty of stocks in distrubution centres and warehouses. There is plenty of toiletpaper as this video shows. (In dutch, but yes, all that stuff is toiletpaper.)
Well, country just entered partial lockdown starting Wednesday, and yes, retail and food is open.
Anyway I expected this a while and it's good. 6 weeks is... not a lot? About $50 worth of supplies, like an extra pair of diapers, detergent (no toilet paper, lol). Much of the food we got is stuff in excess - flour, yeast, noodles, some canned food. We bought most of it last week, when people were avoiding public places, so ironically, stores were overstocked.
Restaurants are getting shut down though. So it's probably a good idea to buy lots of stuff in one go in the future, so that there's less contact.
Post by: Frumple on March 16, 2020, 11:30:41 am
Post by: Teneb on March 16, 2020, 12:05:26 pm
And, of course, there were the fascist rallies yesterday, that I mentioned in this very thread.
It's expected that in five days things will get very, very bad.
Post by: scriver on March 16, 2020, 12:23:23 pm
Slightly worrisome.. Cat food is nearly gone in my supermarket.
It's cheap and I like the taste.
Edit: I just noticed the page number, so I'll add something more true and also on-topic. Italy is telling people not to have gang-bangs during Corona virus.
There's nothing funny about the number 41
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2020, 12:25:27 pm
This will be fun.
Went to the grocery store for the usual goods on my usual time on a sunday. It was desolated.
- Bread? One packet of rye hot dog bread, and some pre-baked bread was left.
- Meat? Basically just expensive upper-class meat and fish was left. No minced meat, no chicken, no sausages. Thank god salami was still around.
- Flour? Decimated. Only expensive flour left.
- Tins? Hope you weren't planning on getting crushed tomatoes or purée, it's all gone.
- Potatoes and other root vegetables? They're gone.
At that point I just stopped checking and grabbed whatever I could get. At least I can bake my own bread.
Hopefully they've restocked next time. I don't fancy eating rice and baked beans.
Post by: coalboat on March 16, 2020, 12:26:41 pm
Post by: scriver on March 16, 2020, 12:32:24 pm
Finland enters state of emergency on Wednesday, schools and public facilities shut down until April 13th etc.
This will be fun.
Went to the grocery store for the usual goods on my usual time on a sunday. It was desolated.
- Bread? One packet of rye hot dog bread, and some pre-baked bread was left.
- Meat? Basically just expensive upper-class meat and fish was left. No minced meat, no chicken, no sausages. Thank god salami was still around.
- Flour? Decimated. Only expensive flour left.
- Tins? Hope you weren't planning on getting crushed tomatoes or purée, it's all gone.
- Potatoes and other root vegetables? They're gone.
At that point I just stopped checking and grabbed whatever I could get. At least I can bake my own bread.
Hopefully they've restocked next time. I don't fancy eating rice and baked beans.
Just come over to Sweden, we have all the stocks.
Haven't even run out of toilet paper in our store (although the isle was a lil bit holey I have to admit). Only thing we've sold out on is hand booze. Tins and cans and flour and pasta is all there though. Last restock was Friday, next is tomorrow.
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 12:54:06 pm
I'm a little worried for society. Lockdowns are going to be weird. I have supplies for 6 weeks but what's after that? How does supplies go in supermarkets during a lockdown? Who's going to buy from a supermarket? Are people going to deliver to homes? A lot of home delivery infrastructure is built around buying from a supermarket, so is it built for that?
You have supplies for six weeks? So that is why all the supermarket shelfs are empty. Please stop pillaging the stores people..
Dude, he's not a pillager. Some people buy bulk to start with, to save money. I had 10 kilos of rice (5 kg brown rice and 5 kg jasmine rice) before this thing even started. A couple of cabbages and a couple bags of onions, some frozen veg, and with the frozen meat in my freezer, and I could make curry rice dishes for over 1 month at a time without needing to shop. 6 week wouldn't be much stretch. I also buy powdered milk, because I don't drink that much, so fresh milk would go off before I finish it, so months worth of milk.
And that was when I was on unemployment. Now that I'm working I tend not to keep so much food stocked up because I can afford fresher stuff. So ironically, when I was unemployed I planned my food stocks further in advance than now when I'm working. Also, because I have a rewards card and was getting big discounts for doing bigger shopping trips, so I'd do one big shop every 4 weeks only rather than shopping every 2-week pay day.
Not having any food stored up is actually either (1) really bad planning: you don't know how to budget your unemployment check (or, you are homeless / unstable home life) or (2) you got money so don't need to budget.
Post by: Grim Portent on March 16, 2020, 01:05:30 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 01:14:10 pm
So I might buy some of the cheap veg and cut it up and put that in freezer bags. It's more work but the normal panickers aren't putting that effort in.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 16, 2020, 01:14:57 pm
Half of me's been a little terrified as I'm basically dealing with foreigners on a daily basis, but I'm at least a semi-healthy(?) young guy so who knows. I'm worried about my dad who eats cigars as a hobby and regularly practices martial arts (sweat everywhere). His office is still open but closed recently for a cleaning day, and they've been working on work-at-home solutions. Most of my other relatives live in bum-fuck nowhere so they're at least 60% safe, right.
Today brought me to a local supermarket out of frozen pizza and morbid curiosity. The entire paper aisle is empty, alongside most of the meat. Milk and eggs are mostly gone as well, unless you like plant milk. I tried my best to have as little physical contact with the POS area as I could to help out the employees but I still feel bad about being outside at all.
Local supermarkets are getting cleared out it seems. My main concern is that it's going to be hard to get fresh food for my tortoise more so than food for the humans in the house.
Honestly? The produce section was kinda untouched. I get that produce is fairly perishable, but I feel like this says something about society.
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 01:23:26 pm
This may have as much to do with the type of goods as the people buying them.
Paper goods have no expiry date, so they don't typically get restocked very much. This may have left them brittle in terms of resupply in the face of over-stockers, which then caused a vicious cycle.
Canned goods, rice, pasta were next: very long shelf life, so stocked well in advance: but, they do get stocked more regularly that toilet paper.
Meat, cheese, eggs: Very short shelf life, so it took more effort for these to be depleted, since they're used to restocking these constantly as it is.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2020, 01:26:13 pm
https://corrierefiorentino.corriere.it/firenze/notizie/cronaca/20_marzo_15/dobbiamo-cambiare-rotta-ef23a500-669a-11ea-a40a-86d505f82a96.shtml?refresh_ce-cp&fbclid=IwAR2cqq7C46QM1o4mwSGPFImOzcIc7spd-LoDZMs9MKD0Ft5Xt-BB3b6TWD8
Basically, they did a study in an Italian town, Vo. They found that 50 to 70% of the population were asymptomatic or oligosymtomatic carriers of coronavirus. Then they enforced even stricter isolation on these and infections fell from 88 to 7
So the takehome message if this is true:
- reinforces the situation with the virus. On an individual basis danger is low. But it destroys societies and healthcare systems.
- the covid19 cases we see are the tip of the iceberg. We're surrounded by thousands of superspreaders.
- social isolation works. It works better if you do it early before it infiltrates your society. But even late you can turn the tabs on covid19 if you act decisively.
Post by: TD1 on March 16, 2020, 01:27:53 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 01:32:54 pm
They probably didn't realize yesterday that about 1 in 12 people over here smoke weed everyday and came to their senses after seeing the massive queues yesterday evening of people stocking up on weed.
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2020, 01:36:59 pm
Blanch and freeze. Then it can lasts months.Local supermarkets are getting cleared out it seems. My main concern is that it's going to be hard to get fresh food for my tortoise more so than food for the humans in the house.
Honestly? The produce section was kinda untouched. I get that produce is fairly perishable, but I feel like this says something about society.
But I think barely anyone ever does that here these days. Storage capacity is a limitation. It's more dry goods, root vegetables, and tin cans.
Post by: WealthyRadish on March 16, 2020, 01:47:44 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 16, 2020, 01:52:04 pm
The shops here have been running out of things due to hysterical hoarding, but I have a relative in this city who works at a grocery store and can buy things before the store opens. So, yay for corruption, I guess.
The obvious downside is they have to work at a grocery during this
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 01:55:40 pm
He works as a cook in a restaurant, they took the perishable stocks home so they won't go to waste over the 3 week shutdown.
I'll guess I'll be making healthy soups and loading my freezer with those.
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2020, 01:58:37 pm
That's when you start ordering groceries online. How to handle the actual delivery in a time of social panic, though, is another question. Not just how to avoid infection, but how to avoid theft as well.The shops here have been running out of things due to hysterical hoarding, but I have a relative in this city who works at a grocery store and can buy things before the store opens. So, yay for corruption, I guess.
The obvious downside is they have to work at a grocery during this
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2020, 02:00:31 pm
Good to know. Though social isolation is actually beginning to get to me. And the UK's approach of "Bring out yer Dead" doesn't support it atm.I was appalled when I heard. I really hope people isolate nonetheless and that govt policy changes. It could get really bad
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 02:02:50 pm
That's when you start ordering groceries online. How to handle the actual delivery in a time of social panic, though, is another question. Not just how to avoid infection, but how to avoid theft as well.Most online grocery delivery firms over here simply cannot keep up with demand.
Their virtual shelves empty way faster than the supermarkets' shelves.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2020, 02:10:03 pm
I wanted to share this
https://corrierefiorentino.corriere.it/firenze/notizie/cronaca/20_marzo_15/dobbiamo-cambiare-rotta-ef23a500-669a-11ea-a40a-86d505f82a96.shtml?refresh_ce-cp&fbclid=IwAR2cqq7C46QM1o4mwSGPFImOzcIc7spd-LoDZMs9MKD0Ft5Xt-BB3b6TWD8
Basically, they did a study in an Italian town, Vo. They found that 50 to 70% of the population were asymptomatic or oligosymtomatic carriers of coronavirus. Then they enforced even stricter isolation on these and infections fell from 88 to 7
So the takehome message if this is true:
- reinforces the situation with the virus. On an individual basis danger is low. But it destroys societies and healthcare systems.
- the covid19 cases we see are the tip of the iceberg. We're surrounded by thousands of superspreaders.
- social isolation works. It works better if you do it early before it infiltrates your society. But even late you can turn the tabs on covid19 if you act decisively.
Addenum: Macron admitted on french TV thst there might be thousands of asymptomatic superspreaders. So he's stepping up the lockdpwn
But the letter in the italian newspaper was published on March the 14th. And he held French elections a couple of days ago.
So my questions
-Why are all western goverments reacting so slow and so sloppy?
-Why are being so misinformed by our goverments???
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 02:16:00 pm
Why are all western goverments reacting so slow and so sloppy?Still, initial reaction is better than initial Chinese reaction (though we had warning, so it is not good anyway).
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2020, 02:16:20 pm
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 02:17:02 pm
Because as soon as Martial Law gets declared and there are troops on the street enforcing curfews and quarantine orders in Western countries, that's when the panic and hysteria is going to reach 11.
In other news, my apartment closed the Fitness Center. More than the lack of TP and stuff missing from the shelves, this is the closest Coronavirus has come to affecting me.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2020, 02:53:08 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 02:58:45 pm
That's when you start ordering groceries online. How to handle the actual delivery in a time of social panic, though, is another question. Not just how to avoid infection, but how to avoid theft as well.The shops here have been running out of things due to hysterical hoarding, but I have a relative in this city who works at a grocery store and can buy things before the store opens. So, yay for corruption, I guess.
The obvious downside is they have to work at a grocery during this
Online ordering has broken down too. Here, you used to be able to order two days ahead, but it ended up booked out almost two weeks in advance. Now, that major supermarket chain has informed the media that they're no longer accepting online orders unless you're a pensioner or on disability.
Right now, your best bet is to hit the supermarket right at opening time. But even then, queues are starting before that.
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 02:59:00 pm
It's one big overhyped internet meme.
Some guy in Australia saying toilet paper is all made in China (it isn't) went viral, turned into an internet meme and now people all across the globe are unnescessarily hoarding toilet paper, creating a daily shortage that wouldn't be there if they weren't hoarding the stuff.
Post by: McTraveller on March 16, 2020, 03:07:11 pm
Right now, your best bet is to hit the supermarket right at opening time. But even then, queues are starting before that.This is the kind of advice that perpetuates the problem.
Just go to the store like you normally would, on your normal schedule, perhaps wearing a kerchief so when you sneeze it doesn't go anywhere, and none of this would have been a problem!
EDIT: and this is also highly regional too. We were able to get almost all our regular groceries today, except for eggs. No eggs anywhere... and we didn't overstock, we just got our regular stuff.
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 03:09:51 pm
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 03:14:31 pm
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-role-did-rumour-play-in-australia-s-toilet-paper-frenzy-20200304-p546tt.html
Quote
One of the first tweets showing empty supermarket shelves following China's coronavirus outbreak appeared in Hong Kong on February 5, with political journalist Alvin Lum writing about "troubling online rumours" causing a "sudden surge in demand for toilet paper".
So, the first signs of that were in China.
There have been toilet paper panics quite often. It just seems to be a product category that's somehow prone to this stuff. For example, in 1973 there was a "toilet paper panic". Actually, there were two separate toilet paper panics of 1973, in USA and Japan, and both were triggered by unrelated incidents:
https://www.ripleys.com/weird-news/toilet-paper-panic/
https://gaijinass.com/2011/03/10/toliet-paper-panic/
also, Taiwan toilet paper panic of 2018
https://econlife.com/2018/03/taiwans-toilet-paper-shortage/
also, UK news said there would be a post-Brexit toilet paper shortage. Basically asking for a panic right there:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/brexit-toilet-paper-shortage
Quote
According to the Confederation of Paper Industries, 1.3 million tonnes of tissue is used in the UK every year, with 1.1 million of it being imported into the UK.
Right now, your best bet is to hit the supermarket right at opening time. But even then, queues are starting before that.This is the kind of advice that perpetuates the problem.
Just go to the store like you normally would, on your normal schedule, perhaps wearing a kerchief so when you sneeze it doesn't go anywhere, and none of this would have been a problem!
EDIT: and this is also highly regional too. We were able to get almost all our regular groceries today, except for eggs. No eggs anywhere... and we didn't overstock, we just got our regular stuff.
But that's stupid. Then you'll never get anything and have to keep going back over and over again, and you'll probably grab a few extra things each time, because you made the trip.
If you want to get your regular amount of stuff, you need to get their before the hoarders. If you purchase what you always did then you're not the cause of the problem. I've started stocking up now, gradually, but I still have less food than I used to right now when I used to stock up 4 weeks ahead.
Going shopping in the morning instead of the afternoon isn't the "cause" of the problem.
Post by: Iduno on March 16, 2020, 03:16:21 pm
My guess would be some MPs and/or members of government are valuing the economy too much.
Yes, but you would think at least one would realize that fewer people getting sick is better for the economy.
Probably because compared to Eastern governments, Western Governments with their emphasis on personal and individual freedom would have to resort to putting troops on the street to enforce curfews. Compared to Eastern governments with their collectivist mindsets, it's probably a lot easier and more socially acceptable for them to go straight to curfews and have them actually be respected by the populace without putting troops on the street.
Because as soon as Martial Law gets declared and there are troops on the street enforcing curfews and quarantine orders in Western countries, that's when the panic and hysteria is going to reach 11.
Why don't they just make 10 louder and make 10 be the top number and make that a little louder?
But that's stupid. Then you'll never get anything and have to keep going back over and over again. If you want to get your regular amount of stuff, you need to get their before the hoarders.
Or know where the hoarders are going.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 16, 2020, 03:19:33 pm
Rumors of a shortage that end up making that shortage a reality
Post by: Naryar on March 16, 2020, 03:23:58 pm
I am slightly worried about food variety in my local supermarket, but otherwise not so much.
Also this toilet paper buy craze is silly... i've seen several people buy lots of it already.
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2020, 03:25:11 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 16, 2020, 03:29:24 pm
Welp, we're apparently at the Madagascar-closes-borders stage of the not!game. Life imitating art, I guess.
Also, apparently President Madagascar's real name is Andry Rajoelina.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 03:34:04 pm
EDIT: and this is also highly regional too. We were able to get almost all our regular groceries today, except for eggs. No eggs anywhere... and we didn't overstock, we just got our regular stuff.
Yeah, I think you have to take into the account the situation here.
Right now, if I go at a "normal" time, I can get maybe 5% of the products I normally get for food. "just shop normally" is not a viable strategy. That's the same as saying "just starve to death".
For example, there's often zero tinned tuna, and tinned tuna is the main protein I eat. I eat sardines for protein too, and even those got stripped out. No more sardines basically. No eggs, no frozen chicken. That's basically all my meat meals, and none of those are available at "go at your regular schedule" times.
Things I also buy are canned beans, chickpeas, diced tomatoes, rice, curry powder. Those are for making my lunches for work. Literally every ingredient, including the curry powder have completely been stripped either most or all of the time. I have to go at opening time just in hope they have one or the other thing in stock so I can make my work lunches. And, even at opening time today, half those things weren't there.
I've also noticed that at opening time now, rather than having the shelves fully stocked, they're only laying in piecemeal amounts of new stock. There was still literally no toilet paper on sale even at opening time. They had like 2 small boxes of baby-wipes instead and people were shrugging and getting the tiny packets of baby wipes (which still have a 1-pack limit).
I'll be down to newspaper soon at this rate. So, I'm not the problem here, it's whoever got all the fucking toilet paper who's the problem.
Post by: McTraveller on March 16, 2020, 04:00:02 pm
Why don't we have "circuit breakers" in grocery stores like we do for the stock market?
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 04:00:36 pm
But seriously, that's what raising prices is meant to achieve. But, the supermarkets don't want the bad PR of being seen to be profiting from this, so instead of raising prices, they've effectively self-imposed price controls. And price controls by themselves lead to hoarding behavior, even if there wasn't a panic.
but more seriously, they imposed buying limits of basically 1-2 packs on a stack of things. So you can't buy more than 1 pack of toilet paper now, and they shifted production to smaller packs.
And that's why I was mentioning the Soviet Union before, back when they had bread lines. It was for the same basic reasons. Demand rose, but they didn't want to raise prices, so stock sold out (artificially kept cheap) and there was hoarding/speculation, so they then impose rationing to deal with that problem.
The real problem is that demand is rising, but they won't raise prices so shortages are inevitable in that situation. Also, they failed to anticipate the problem. If they had, they could have over-produced to ensure there were never shortages in the first place. Since they failed to do that, they need to ramp up production even more now that they would have had to if they anticipated the situation. But of course, down the track there's going to be a huge crash in demand.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 16, 2020, 05:32:26 pm
But seriously, that's what raising prices is meant to achieve. But, the supermarkets don't want the bad PR of being seen to be profiting from this, so instead of raising prices, they've effectively self-imposed price controls. And price controls by themselves lead to hoarding behavior, even if there wasn't a panic.Allowing the prices to rise would probably be worse. People would start to hoard them to sell them at a profit, and people that actually ran out of toiletpaper and legitimately need to buy a pack, would not be able to afford them, causing even more hysteria.
Pssst.. hey there.. want to buy a roll of toilet paper? Only 29.99! The best quality.. as good as new.. meet me in the alley over there..
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 05:49:28 pm
For example, say that toilet paper was in high demand, and bringing the store price to $50 per roll caused that demand to hit equilibrium with supply. At this point you can buy a toilet paper roll for $50, but the free-market price is also $50. Anyone with a "hoard" of it either sells it all off, or they keep it for personal use. They don't buy more: it'll be $50 whether you buy one now or later. the demand spike then drops off and the price returns to normal.
Alternatively, the stores say "demand is high but we refuse to raise the price". What then happens is speculators buy all the rolls for $1 a piece, and sell them for $50 on the black market. This then exacerbates the shortage and causes even more hoarding and speculation. Which then leads to the "rationing" phase.
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2020, 05:52:12 pm
It's much like rent. You already have a tenant; you already profit off him; so why must the rent go up when the demand goes up?
Supply and demand is treated like gospel, when it's more greed-induced voodoo than reality.
Post by: WealthyRadish on March 16, 2020, 06:14:16 pm
Rationing (at the very least basic stuff already mentioned like limiting individual daily purchases of items) is a better solution, and in any decent country where public trust exists can counteract hoarding by at least giving the appearance that the government is acting and will not let them starve or get bled dry in the immediate future over a temporary panic.
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 06:17:51 pm
Raise the prices, you fuck the poor. A story as old as time.
It's much like rent. You already have a tenant; you already profit off him; so why must the rent go up when the demand goes up?
Supply and demand is treated like gospel, when it's more greed-induced voodoo than reality.
I'm aware of the issues. but the result is as you see. If demand rises but the market doesn't accommodate that, you get a first-served-only-served situation, where the "price" is "low" but you simply can't get any. For pensioners, the reality here is that they now need to wipe their ass with newspaper because they can't get toilet paper, because it's at a fixed price but demand went up. So sure, the "price didn't go up" but you can't actually get any, so it's sort of moot at that point.
with the rent situation, if demand is high but rents are controlled that just means that if you were lucky enough to be grandfather-claused into a rent-controlled property, you're ok, but otherwise homeless. Over time, the rent controls fuck over younger people, as most older people will ruthlessly hold onto their rent-controlled apartments, and there's no incentive for private development to build more rental properties, since they're artificially unprofitable.
The solution is to not try and enforce pricing, but bring in alternative support for the poor: food banks and public housing rather than trying to force price controls on supermarkets and landlords.
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 06:41:20 pm
After a couple weeks, the biggest initial hit of Corona in the US and elsewhere will processing, and as long as prevention controls mean it doesn't increase exponentially beyond that initial shock, purchasing habits are going to return to normal.
What will possibly fuck us though is the supply chains are effected. If they're short staffed due to the virus, if their mobility is restricted or interstate commerce is blocked on the grounds of controlling the spread of the virus, then shit is going to get bad. Then people are going to have to start eating "whatever they can" instead of being like "I always eat chick peas and there's no chickpeas left wah."
I've gotten about half away from processed food in general. But I stocked up a little today on stuff like ramen that I don't even eat anymore because, hey, if the supply chain gets seriously damaged, what it's made of no longer really matters, what matters now is just pure calorie count. What I eat a ton of though is restaurant food. Today my regular place closed indefinitely until the situation changes, and I expect we'll see more, especially if the Trump administration goes ahead and instructs all eateries and bars to close down until the situation improves.
So if infrastructure and shipping prove themselves to be fragile or the spread of the virus gets as bad as people are fearing, everyone is going to have to get used to a new normal. That may mean eating what's available rather than what you want, or what's optimal for you. But it's still too early to freak out about that yet, as things are still adapting.
Hell, my whole company moved to Discord as our main communication tool, and today the day we try to actually run our business through it in full, the servers just herped and derp in the middle of a 8 person video conference and died and half of people's clients just shit themselves. I've been using Discord for over a year and never seen it crap the bed like that.
All systems are adapting to the massive, rapid shift in human behavior, whether that's tech, logistics or infrastructure. THAT is what is causing most of our worries, and MOST of it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Quote
wipe their ass with newspaper
Probably the last generation to even have a lot of newspaper on hand.
Quote
food banks and public housing rather than trying to force price controls on supermarkets and landlords.
Food banks in a time of emptying shelves, and public housing in a time about disease hysteria. I'll be honest, the armchair anything about Coronavirus is starting to get to me. My brother called yesterday and wanted to chat up hypotheticals and I was just like "I don't really want to hear about the collapse of the supply chain being good for us in the long run so we learn to rely on external sourced goods less." I kind of find myself getting annoyed by the ipso facto logic, even though I just practiced it above. It's like, just generating a shitload of anxiety and little else.
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 06:47:24 pm
Also, food banks are a great failsafe in times of "shelves emptying out". You go into one of those, show your card that says you're a low-income earner, then they give you a bundle of essential items. They need to be funded properly however so that they're not just relying on rejected goods, but have a proper supply. At least one of the main supermarkets here is already partnering with charities to provide toiletpaper to seniors directly.
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 06:50:40 pm
Raise the prices, you fuck the poor. A story as old as time.
Neither really works in panic.
Store raise prices? People will still panic buy like idiots, and poor people have problem.
Hoarding? See current situation
Rationing in mild "one pack per person" version works relatively well in case where there is no true shortage, just people being stupid. Hopefully full scale rationing will not be necessary and people will soon run out of place to store toilet paper.
It's much like rent. You already have a tenant; you already profit off him; so why must the rent go up when the demand goes up?Supply and demand gets crazy during panic (as demand gets irrational and crazy). But attempting to ignore it for housing is simply stupid. To reduce prices of housing - build more housing. Rent control/irrational zoning will only make situation worse long term. For truly crazy forbid construction of housing and block price increases.
Supply and demand is treated like gospel, when it's more greed-induced voodoo than reality.
In a healthy situation landlords with very high profits (or even profits expected to be high) will result in more housing being build, what reduces prices. If you forbid construction, you get higher prices or officially low prices but becoming a new renter is nearly impossible.
Long term rent control are generally idiotic, though short term in case of people being ridiculously stupid are a good idea.
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 06:56:32 pm
why would public housing be a virus threat? That just means that the city government owns apartment buildings and they rent them out to low-income earners for cheap. It doesn't mean people share a bathroom or anything.
Also, food banks are a great failsafe in times of "shelves emptying out". You go into one of those, show your card that says you're a low-income earner, then they give you a bundle of essential items. They need to be funded properly however so that they're not just relying on rejected goods, but have a proper supply. At least one of the main supermarkets here is already partnering with charities to provide toiletpaper to seniors directly.
Having worked in a food bank, I can tell you most of their product are rejects, promised donations of over and back stock and expired goods. When the supply chain is threatened, those goods have more value and don't make their way to charitable organizations.
As for public housing, it's just that. Public. High turn over. Lots of bodies moving in and out, of varying hygiene levels. During a viral outbreak. You don't have to be shitting where someone else shits to get something. People touching the same wall rounding a corner can be a vector. Interior apartment buildings (where your doors are all inside rather than having exterior doors) are basically dorms. They share ventilation and door handles and wall spaces. All of those are potential vectors. Versus someone that owns a home with 4 walls and a lawn separating them from their neighbor. My apartment is largely isolated from my neighbors EXCEPT via the heating and AC ventilation.
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 07:01:49 pm
And I am dubious about massive difference, as long as at least part of people goes to work/shops. Lawn is not some impenetrable barrier.
Post by: Reelya on March 16, 2020, 07:05:05 pm
I'm not talking about shelters or anything like that, but apartments that you rent.
Edit: also, studies done of the effects of the San Francisco rent controls:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control_in_the_United_States#2017_study_of_the_San_Francisco_housing_market
Quote
In 1994, San Francisco voters passed a ballot initiative which expanded the city's existing rent control laws to include small multi-unit apartments with four or less units, built prior to 1980. (about 30% of the city's rental housing stock at the time). In 2017, Stanford economics researcher Rebecca Diamond and others published a study which examined the effects of this specific rent control law on the rental units newly controlled compared to similar style units (multi-unit apartments with four or less units) not under rent control (built after 1980), as well as this law's effect on the total city rental stock, and on overall rent prices in the city, covering the years from 1995 to 2012.
They found that while San Francisco's rent control laws benefited tenants who had rent controlled units, it also resulted in landlords removing 30% of the units in the study from the rental market, (by conversion to condos or TICs) which led to a 15% citywide decrease in total rental units, and a 7% increase in citywide rents.
So, 70% of the people in the rent-controlled units got along fine, but 30% of the others got booted out so that the units could be converted to something more profitable.
Post by: WealthyRadish on March 16, 2020, 07:19:47 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2020, 07:28:59 pm
People just need enough to survive the two week panic rush. Conceivably most people aren't going to go the grocery store to buy 2 months of supplies every two weeks. What were seeing now is system shock when large populations all try to do the same thing at the same time.
After a couple weeks, the biggest initial hit of Corona in the US and elsewhere will processing,
At this point I think that expecting this to be down significantly after a couple of weeks is way too optimistic.
Actually, I´m fairly sure it´s going to be much worse
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 07:44:21 pm
Post by: mko on March 16, 2020, 08:08:36 pm
Yeah but in terms of there being runs on particular goods and items, that can and hopefully will normalize pretty quickly. Hand sanitizers and disinfectant are probably going to be scarce for a while but I'm pretty sure they'll ramp up production because this I think this a trend they can capitalize on for years.Yeah, how much toilet paper you can stockpile? And for example in Poland one of major petrochemical companies switched some production lines to medical-grade sanitizers.
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 08:15:27 pm
Just as long as half the people who tend, raise, harvest, package and ship the stuff I want don't get sick.......things should be ok.
Post by: Frumple on March 16, 2020, 08:24:38 pm
I mean, it depends on how much storage you have? TP takes up a lot of space, generally, but it's also easily stackable and long lasting. So long as you're willing to have less space for others stuff and/or go floor to ceiling you can jam a lot of it even into a fairly small area.Yeah but in terms of there being runs on particular goods and items, that can and hopefully will normalize pretty quickly. Hand sanitizers and disinfectant are probably going to be scarce for a while but I'm pretty sure they'll ramp up production because this I think this a trend they can capitalize on for years.Yeah, how much toilet paper you can stockpile? And for example in Poland one of major petrochemical companies switched some production lines to medical-grade sanitizers.
... actually, now I'm wondering how long before we hear news of a house burning down due to having too much toilet paper stacked up in it. I'd be disappointed, but unsurprised :-\
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 16, 2020, 08:27:28 pm
Post by: Stench Guzman on March 16, 2020, 08:31:18 pm
Post by: ZBridges on March 16, 2020, 08:49:51 pm
Post by: Muz on March 16, 2020, 09:44:00 pm
Toilet paper is... probably not that valuable. But it's being overbought by people who think it can be pushed easily for a profit.
Post by: nenjin on March 16, 2020, 09:44:58 pm
Some areas in the US have been asked to shelter in place, only leaving the residence for absolute necessities. I think that, if you can stock up, you should do so before this order spreads to other areas.
Yeah, friend of mine said the Bay Area in San Francisco is closing down completely tomorrow. Only grocery stores, hospitals, gas stations, other essentials are staying open. Only restaurants that do delivery or carry out can stay open.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 16, 2020, 09:48:18 pm
Post by: wierd on March 16, 2020, 09:51:16 pm
All residents are basically confined to their rooms for the duration of the epidemic. Employees being screened for symptoms at the front desk before they can clock in. Fun times.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 16, 2020, 09:54:07 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 16, 2020, 10:31:13 pm
Voting app. Also just calling it in. Can't catch the plague from a voting site or delivered ballot if you don't get either! I think we never thought of the plague-kills-your-gramma angle when discussing issues with electronic vs. physical voting...
Post by: wierd on March 16, 2020, 10:43:58 pm
Post by: itisnotlogical on March 16, 2020, 10:44:17 pm
I mean, I have to stay home as much as possible anyway, due to my condition and treatments. But in a way it works out because that means we already have more face masks, gloves and sanitizer than your average bear.
Post by: Greiger on March 16, 2020, 11:42:44 pm
- Corporate is assuring us that production of the 'essentials' has gone into overdrive, claiming to have struck temporary deals with other producers to increase supply as well.
- To keep employees safe they are not planning on increasing staffing levels, however stores will close an hour early to allow staff to stock and clean the store, things currently almost impossible to do while open. (As a night manager, I can vouch for that fact)
- We are also encouraged to start a seniors hour in the store early in the day, and to discourage other shoppers from shopping during that hour.
(this was all posted in the inter store email. When opened the program essentially says to not post anything that is confidential, so I assume this is all safe to say and I won't be sued)
Not sure how the hell they intend to do that 3rd part. But that all sounds like good news.
Post by: delphonso on March 17, 2020, 12:04:38 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 03:29:47 am
A lot of the hoarding is done by people who intend to resell it.I doubt that. Most hoarding is done out of of sheer irrational panic.
Ofcourse there are some really nasty fucks that hoard for profit, but at least I hope those form a small minority.
They should be caught and put in pillories at store entrances.
Post by: Reelya on March 17, 2020, 03:32:04 am
I am of the opinion that after a week or two store stocks will improve. They may not be back to normal, you may have to buy store brand instead of charmin or whatever, but I feel you'll be able to get things again.Try 5-6 weeks. I'm paid every 2 weeks, and it's gotten gradually worse over both my last pay cycles. I thought the same "1-2 weeks and it should be back to normal" thing, and now it's over 3 weeks and the situation is only going south day by day.
- Corporate is assuring us that production of the 'essentials' has gone into overdrive, claiming to have struck temporary deals with other producers to increase supply as well.
I mentioned the curry i make and how most of the ingredients couldn't be bought. That's now extended to additional products in just the last day and a half.
Post by: ZBridges on March 17, 2020, 03:40:49 am
A lot of the hoarding is done by people who intend to resell it.I doubt that. Most hoarding is done out of of sheer irrational panic.
Ofcourse there are some really nasty fucks that hoard for profit, but at least I hope those form a small minority.
They should be caught and put in pillories at store entrances.
I don't think people should hoard supplies during disasters, but people tend to do that anyway. I went to two grocery stores today, but I wasn't able to find tissues or any paper supplies at all.
The people acting "rationally" and living closer to day-to-day are having more trouble than the irrational hoarders, who have what they need.
Post by: Naryar on March 17, 2020, 03:46:07 am
No bread, flour stores are almost empty fine, no eggs, oil... there's a bit but it's been heavily bought too.
My supermarket's supply is better than I expected. Wonder how long will this last, since this is only day one. Not sure how often it is supplied though I expect supply chains to be increased for several foodstuffs.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 17, 2020, 04:04:29 am
Post by: da_nang on March 17, 2020, 04:08:25 am
-snip-I urge you to reread what I said. "You already have a tenant; you already profit off him; so why must the rent go up when the demand goes up?"
since they're artificially unprofitable.
Let's say the monthly maintenance of an apartment is 200€ and the monthly loan payments including interest is 300€. Total expenses is 500€. Include taxes and risk if you want. At a 10% profit margin, the monthly rent would be 555.56€ regardless of demand. It's a monthly profit of 55.56€ per apartment.
Considering most of the work can be contracted out or done on a server, you can just build 40 apartments and get that 2222.4€ net income for the next 60-100 years. And if all of those have tenants, then more demand doesn't change anything. Your expenses are still the same and you'll have the same profit. Raising rents at this point is just plain greed.
If anything, less demand make them unprofitable, simply because it means less people want to rent an apartment, meaning your units will stay empty, thus you must raise rent to cover expenses or destroy supply by bulldozing buildings. Which is why building luxury apartments is stupid if you're trying to rent them out. There are not that many people out there that can afford to live in them.
Post by: Reelya on March 17, 2020, 04:16:38 am
By your same argument, no worker should ever charge an employer more in wages than that absolute minimum that worker needs to survive, plus a small percentage, regardless of how in-demand your labor is.
Sure, an existing landlord shouldn't raise the rent on an existing tenant, so that's why San Franscisco has laws preventing that. But the net effect is that the private sector doesn't invest in housing, leading to outright shortages. That's the same thing going on with the toilet paper at the moment. Toilet paper is "cheap" right now, but you just can't get any, and in San Francisco the rent-controlled apartments are cheap, but there are less cheap apartments than ever, so you just can't get one and the people who have one are like the toilet-paper hoarders.
Also, you state that if there's less demand, rents go up. Which is just completely silly. That never happens, which kind of clearly points out that your understanding of how the rental market actually works must be wrong. If there's less demand property prices start falling, and they sell up. They don't raise rents, because that will only cause more people to move out, in a vicious cycle. In low-demand situations, you lower prices/rent until you hit equilibrium. If the equilibrium point is below your costs, then you go out of business, you can't magically "raise prices" to fix it. In housing, that means a sale of the property and it likely getting torn down to build a different type of building or accommodation that's in higher demand.
The point from San Fransicso is that they were using your basic logic when they brought in the rent control laws, and it actually caused about 30% of that type of dwelling to get demolished and turned into luxury condos instead. Overall, the net effect was that there were less rental properties and 7% higher rents city-wide.
Sure, you made the point that someone else could spend their own money to make low-cost housing and rent it out at low-cost, and technically make their money back. But that fails to account for the money they lose by choosing to do that over better-paying investments. If you're saving your money at 10% interest and I tell you to give it to me and I'll pay you only 3% interest, but it'll save me on rent, why should you do that?
Post by: mko on March 17, 2020, 04:32:44 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I am really tempted to start gambling on USA stocks, but it would be blatant gambling.
But current sellof is such nice sale and becomes more and more tempting.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
---------------
Your expenses are still the same and you'll have the same profit. Raising rents at this point is just plain greed.Newsflash, people are greedy. Person may earn 100$ or 10 000$ doing exactly the same thing? Expecting them to decide earning 100$ is not a scalable solution.
"Landlords should decide to charge less and sacrifice their income" (in normal situation, not during current shutdown) is utopia, and treating it as solution is going to fail.
You may as well decide to close police, courts, prison and dissolve laws and declare "Do to others what you want them to do to you.". And then complain when in absence of this tools you will get more thieves.
And if all of those have tenants, then more demand doesn't change anything.It means that they can charge more and still get clients. You can try denying reality, you can privilege current renters at cost of new ones (rent controls). You can try obligating people to be landlords or force multiple families into one flat. (all was tried)
But only and sole solution to get more/cheaper housing at larger scale is to reduce demand or increase supply. AKA build more housing. In case of San Francisco - stop absurd part of limits on building new housing. Yes, there are indicators that SF needs at this point decades of massive construction to get costs to proper levels, so smarter plan than "drop all rent control and zoning at once" is needed.
You can also deny reality and be confused why it is not working well.
Post by: da_nang on March 17, 2020, 04:45:23 am
Even so, I don't need to maximize my salary. What am I supposed to do with the excess? My time is limited, my consumption is limited. As long as I live comfortably, why would I need more money? It's just going to sit there growing in a pile.
Greedy people are the problem. Demand doesn't suddenly change your expenses.
Post by: delphonso on March 17, 2020, 04:48:40 am
Post by: Cyroth on March 17, 2020, 05:10:04 am
Order food for over 35€ and you get a roll of TP as a present, order for over 50€ and you also get a small spray tube of hand sanitizer.
Genius.
Post by: Max™ on March 17, 2020, 05:40:03 am
On the other hand I honestly didn't expect this administration would literally interfere with testing and flat out fight to the last minute before admitting this is a big fucking problem, and they've made it much worse than it had to be.
Apparently just as they were preparing for the transition the Obama team prepped the incoming Trump team with some rundowns of possible disasters and different ways to deal with them, one of them was exactly what we're facing now.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/16/trump-inauguration-warning-scenario-pandemic-132797
This was all preventable, but fuckmuppet and his cronies decided to pretend it wasn't real, ignore evidence that it was, deny any attempts to get something done, and stymied efforts by others where they could.
They didn't realize how bad this is going to be, but they wanted this on some level before they realized it was going to poundfuck them just as hard as it would everyone else.
Post by: Frumple on March 17, 2020, 07:50:47 am
Post by: Iduno on March 17, 2020, 08:07:46 am
In a healthy situation landlords with very high profits (or even profits expected to be high) will result in more housing being build, what reduces prices. If you forbid construction, you get higher prices or officially low prices but becoming a new renter is nearly impossible.
Theoretically. Here they refuse to build more housing because it could lower prices, even though most people are paying around 50% of their income for rent, and rent increases ~10% each year (which is obviously more than wages increase). You also need competition to make prices more reasonable. When all rental properties are owned by 2-3 companies, there's more collusion than competition.
People who burn toilet paper rolls tend to soak them in lighter fluid first - do they really burn well on their own?
I wouldn't think so. Anything that tightly packed takes a while to light.
Y'know, something occurred to me. Something that could basically completely eliminate voting as a disease transmission vector, even the potential for transference via mail.
Voting app. Also just calling it in. Can't catch the plague from a voting site or delivered ballot if you don't get either! I think we never thought of the plague-kills-your-gramma angle when discussing issues with electronic vs. physical voting...
Have you heard of a place called Iowa?
Post by: scriver on March 17, 2020, 08:09:32 am
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 17, 2020, 10:26:57 am
Supply of apartments is more flexible than supply of labor.
Supply of labor is based on hire-able people you hire/want and how many hours of work you give them. If anything, labor is the most flexable part of production.
Post by: Iduno on March 17, 2020, 10:36:41 am
Supply of apartments is more flexible than supply of labor.
Supply of labor is based on hire-able people you hire/want and how many hours of work you give them. If anything, labor is the most flexable part of production.
Yes, but the length of contracts means you're locked in more. You can just order more or less (within reason) resources depending on your production needs. More labor means hiring and training time.
Post by: Jopax on March 17, 2020, 10:54:26 am
Basically a dude and one family member got back from fucking Italy of all places a week or so ago and didn't think telling anyone was important, cue him getting hospitalized today and some additional fuckery going on without proper quarantine or letting the staff know where he was (all because he has a doctor friend) until it was too late. So now you got a bunch of random people in town that are most certainly infected as well as a number of important hospital staff that may or may not be infected as well.
Just fucking lovely.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 17, 2020, 11:01:37 am
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Lot of weak men in positions of power.
Meanwhile, my governor is getting into twitter fights with Trump, so my state is fucked because Trump's gonna be petty
Post by: Max™ on March 17, 2020, 11:05:01 am
That "nasty question" which turdbucket was asked about his cuts to the agency responsible for unnecessary things like fighting diseases which aren't currently around?
The one which he said he didn't know anything about?
Well, there's video apparently: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/trump-defended-cuts-public-health-agencies/608158/
Ah, well, nevertheless I suppose he'll wriggle out of this one, but is it too much to hope that among the victims of this pandemic we'll be able to count his reelection campaign?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 17, 2020, 11:07:37 am
It feels as if everyone in the West is dropping the ball hard on this.Its unbelievable. Our Head of Sanitary Alerts who is supposed to watch out for this stuff gave his blessing to the 8th of march parades. His fucking blessing.
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Lot of weak men in positions of power.
Meanwhile, my governor is getting into twitter fights with Trump, so my state is fucked because Trump's gonna be petty
Shit, I did not think things would get this bad back then as I largely believed the official lines we were being fed. But that made me uneasy, even back then.
The reason Spain is the fastest growing country traces back to that
Post by: coalboat on March 17, 2020, 11:24:26 am
Meanwhile, my governor is getting into twitter fights with Trump, so my state is fucked because Trump's gonna be petty
Twitter fight is Trump's red herring. When others react he already succeeds. No need to go petty further for him.
Post by: mko on March 17, 2020, 11:47:42 am
Minister of environment (Michał Woś) also tested positive, other ministers were tested and are not ill ( https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,173952,25797606,przebadano-czlonkow-rzadu-na-obecnosc-koronawirusa-szumowski.html ).
Up to 24h delay at border crossings in Poland (Korczowa, at Ukraine border). At one Belarus crossing there is queue of 2000 trucks, increased by 1000 within last 24 hours ( https://next.gazeta.pl/next/7,173953,25797172,dlugie-kolejki-na-granicach-szef-zrzeszenia-miedzynarodowych.html). Official data: https://granica.gov.pl/j/index.php/675-czasy-oczekiwan-granica-wewnetrzna with hilarious motto at top "Przekraczanie granic nigdy nie było tak proste" (crossing borders never was so easy).
----
border queue photos: https://nowiny24.pl/koronawirus-na-granicy-setki-samochodow-i-tysiace-ludzi-czeka-na-odprawe-przed-przejsciem-granicznym-w-korczowej-zdjecia/ar/c1-14858653
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
-----
I just was teaching online for the first time, it went better than expected.
----
A landlord can just build more apartments.The entire point is that some place effectively outlawed/discouraged most of housing construction. And strongly encouraged converting rental properties into luxury residences. For example in SF via zoning laws and rent control laws.
Even so, I don't need to maximize my salary. What am I supposed to do with the excess? My time is limited, my consumption is limited. As long as I live comfortably, why would I need more money? It's just going to sit there growing in a pile.It is sad that many people are too greedy, but ignoring human nature is not helpful.
Greedy people are the problem. Demand doesn't suddenly change your expenses.
Post by: Iduno on March 17, 2020, 12:05:30 pm
Oh hey, first confirmed case in my hometown. And surprising absolutely no one it was handled horribly which will lead to a bigger outbreak.
Basically a dude and one family member got back from fucking Italy of all places a week or so ago and didn't think telling anyone was important, cue him getting hospitalized today and some additional fuckery going on without proper quarantine or letting the staff know where he was (all because he has a doctor friend) until it was too late. So now you got a bunch of random people in town that are most certainly infected as well as a number of important hospital staff that may or may not be infected as well.
Just fucking lovely.
Here in the US, we have the TSA, who will certainly check passengers coming from infected areas...wait, I'm receiving a report that they do fuck all besides hassling people about water bottles.
Post by: Frumple on March 17, 2020, 12:16:47 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 17, 2020, 12:39:08 pm
Edit: It sounds like things might start shutting down around here, now that we've had a few confirmed cases in town. In a few days, when they get the software ready, I should be able to start working from home temporarily.
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 01:02:43 pm
In 24 hours, monday to tuesday, hospitalizations rose from 109 to 314, death toll from 19 to 43.
My friend who is a doctor at the hospital just texted me that a hospital in Uden saw patient numbers rise in a few hours today by 73, and the hospital she herself works at is seeing a sudden influx too.
Post by: Reelya on March 17, 2020, 01:18:53 pm
Quote
It's a story involving patents, patent trolling, Covid-19, Theranos, and even the company that brought us all WeWork: SoftBank. Oh, and also Irell & Manella, the same law firm that once claimed it could represent a monkey in a copyright infringement dispute. You see, Irell & Manella has now filed one of the most utterly bullshit patent infringement lawsuits you'll ever see. They are representing "Labrador Diagnostics LLC" a patent troll which does not seem to exist other than to file this lawsuit, and which claims to hold the rights to two patents (US Patents 8,283,155 and 10,533,994) which, you'll note, were originally granted to Elizabeth Holmes and Theranos -- the firm that shut down in scandal over medical testing equipment that appears to have been oversold and never actually worked. Holmes is still facing federal charges of wire fraud over the whole Theranos debacle. However, back in 2018, the remains of Theranos sold its patents to Fortress Investment Group. Fortress Investment Group is a SoftBank-funded massive patent troll. You may remember the name from the time last fall when Apple and Intel sued the firm, laying out how Fortress is a sort of uber-patent troll, gathering up a bunch of patents and then shaking down basically everyone. Lovely, right? So, this SoftBank-owned patent troll, Fortress, bought up Theranos patents, and then set up this shell company, "Labrador Diagnostics," which decided that right in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic it was going to sue one of the companies making Covid-19 tests, saying that its test violates those Theranos patents, and literally demanding that the court bar the firm from making those Covid-19 tests.
Post by: dragdeler on March 17, 2020, 01:21:37 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 01:37:54 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 17, 2020, 02:00:14 pm
They should declare those patent trolls a terrorist organisation and unleash hellfire drones on them.
I'm sure they will, once they quit being profitable.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 17, 2020, 02:10:50 pm
what would need to happen for this?They should declare those patent trolls a terrorist organisation and unleash hellfire drones on them.
I'm sure they will, once they quit being profitable.
Post by: Iduno on March 17, 2020, 02:12:16 pm
what would need to happen for this?They should declare those patent trolls a terrorist organisation and unleash hellfire drones on them.
I'm sure they will, once they quit being profitable.
A patent system that isn't terrible, which in turn would require long-term thinking, which we just discussed.
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 17, 2020, 02:13:06 pm
I mean, apparently airport folks are *checks notes* taking people's temperatures and then shuffling them into densely packed waiting areas? Wait, that can't be right...
And maybe infect them: https://www.tsa.gov/news/2020/03/17/tsa-statement-covid-19-cle-airport
Edit: Heck, there are over half a dozen such cases over the past few weeks, all of which are screeners: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus
Post by: Quarque on March 17, 2020, 02:18:10 pm
Most hoarding is done out of of sheer irrational panic.
I think you are right. In addition, once a few people start hoarding, more people will start to worry that the supermarket could run empty and start hoarding as well, leading to a chain effect.
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 04:29:34 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on March 17, 2020, 05:05:07 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 17, 2020, 05:06:11 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 05:14:59 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 17, 2020, 05:20:57 pm
I mean, fucking listen to yourself! .30 an hour? For making lifesaving equipment? You don't smell anything wrong there? Smell hard.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 17, 2020, 05:24:04 pm
It's definitely slave labor. Why do you think the US made a specific exemption to our slavery ban for prisoners? You're playing the same fucked up game we are.
I mean, fucking listen to yourself! .30 an hour? For making lifesaving equipment? You don't smell anything wrong there? Smell hard.
I want our countries to stop playing the slave game
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 05:26:32 pm
EDIT: and it is quite possible that they get more than 30 cents for this job, no clue.
I believe the standard pay for prison labour here is 30 cents and hour though. Those standard prison labour programs aren't really for the money, they are meant to teach a trade (prisoners can get degrees and certificates through these programs that would cost a lot of money to get outside of prison) , kill boredom and get them used to a working schedule for when they are released. All voluontary.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 17, 2020, 05:30:28 pm
Barbaric.
Post by: McTraveller on March 17, 2020, 05:35:40 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2020, 05:46:55 pm
Since prisoners pay no rent, no gas / electricity, no water, and already get an allowance, this is pretty fair, and leaves a prisoner that chooses to work 8h a day for 5 days a week with more than half the amount to freely spend (on top of their monthly allowance) than someone living off social minimum.
Plus they get free education as an added bonus.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 17, 2020, 05:51:14 pm
There was also a prison break in Italy
Post by: TD1 on March 17, 2020, 05:57:32 pm
It is voluntary.
They get paid.
Slave labour is not voluntary, frequently unpaid, and requires the use of slaves - those who are legally the possessions of another person.
I'll add that I don't see much wrong with using prisoners as cheap labour, though it being voluntary is perhaps an essential criteria. They are, after all, being punished. If they choose to relieve their boredom by doing community service work, why not?
Post by: WealthyRadish on March 17, 2020, 06:43:09 pm
Opponents say things like "the same government offices that set state prosecution guidelines for conviction rates and severity are also building their budgets around the dividends from prison labor programs they also administer" and "elections to head these offices are intensely lobbied and campaigned for by the companies profiting from these programs", but I think what they're missing is that criminals need to be punished.
Post by: Frumple on March 17, 2020, 06:52:04 pm
Also not the thread for it, though. I'm sure some prison or another will get their population infected and then probably disproportionately killed, then it'll have a good place in the crow plague thread.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 17, 2020, 07:15:47 pm
It's really not harmless, undercutting jobs that might actually meaningfully support a family just as a start. We should really not fucking incentivize corps to figure out how to wrangle paying their workers fuckall by reason of them being currently incarcerated, and that's just the tip of the iceberg so far as issues with penal labor goes. Either pay the work what it's due or fuck off, and 80 cents per hour isn't the due for goddamn anything anymore.This is Holland you're talking about. They don't have a profit-driven penal system, so that incentive doesn't exist. Furthermore, it's voluntary, since you can't be forced to work if you haven't been sentenced to labour.
You guys are really trying to find a hole in this.
Post by: delphonso on March 17, 2020, 07:40:28 pm
Current state of this thread: WTF?
The real virus is this thread.
Post by: mko on March 17, 2020, 08:05:12 pm
Yeah, if someone is interested in discussing prison/labor/slavery - create a new thread and link to it.Current state of this thread: WTF?
The real virus is this thread.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 17, 2020, 08:16:39 pm
It's really not harmless, undercutting jobs that might actually meaningfully support a family just as a start. We should really not fucking incentivize corps to figure out how to wrangle paying their workers fuckall by reason of them being currently incarcerated, and that's just the tip of the iceberg so far as issues with penal labor goes. Either pay the work what it's due or fuck off, and 80 cents per hour isn't the due for goddamn anything anymore.
Also not the thread for it, though. I'm sure some prison or another will get their population infected and then probably disproportionately killed, then it'll have a good place in the crow plague thread.
Hello, I'd like to point out that there is a terrible lack of healthcare material right now. Those masks are specially needed, doubly so if somehow they are assembling HEPA masks. But even regular masks would be fine. China has promised shipments and some have actually arrived but the lack of protection equipments is actually critical. More masks will make a huge difference.
If we could get everyone wearing masks we could probably even control this sooner and in a less damaging way than we would otherwise.
Post by: Frumple on March 17, 2020, 08:25:50 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 17, 2020, 08:50:58 pm
Though TBH I think at this point all Europe is hoping the Chinese will bail us out and provide all the medical material we need. The sooner that happens, the less likely the situation of Italy will repeat in Spain, France, UK, and Germany.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 17, 2020, 08:53:36 pm
Meanwhile convicts in Brazil decided to just leave prison after new Coronavirus restrictions.
There was also a prison break in Italy
Iran looks positively enlightened by comparison since they straight up released many of theirs.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 17, 2020, 09:05:11 pm
I can't see anything wrong with it either, it seems really harmless.yep, sounds like America. This country sucks in regards to this. I wonder if there is anyone against for profit prisons
Opponents say things like "the same government offices that set state prosecution guidelines for conviction rates and severity are also building their budgets around the dividends from prison labor programs they also administer" and "elections to head these offices are intensely lobbied and campaigned for by the companies profiting from these programs", but I think what they're missing is that criminals need to be punished.
Back to Coronavirus: My college won’t be having classes on the 23 or 24 of March, and there will be remote classes in the 25, due to Coronavirus
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 17, 2020, 09:08:43 pm
Anyways! Work has gone remote for me (engineering), and the office building is basically locking up for the upcoming months. Not seeing a whole lot of forced closures here in GA, but it's likely to happen as things intensfy.
Post by: coalboat on March 17, 2020, 09:17:34 pm
Post by: wierd on March 17, 2020, 10:31:39 pm
Well at least thats one less virus breeding vector...
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 02:12:47 am
Post by: Greiger on March 18, 2020, 02:23:43 am
Post by: Max™ on March 18, 2020, 02:29:48 am
Sadly it's more about instilling a willingness to perform vague, often pointless tasks, with a vague implication that there will be a point and reward for it, but it's probably best not to question the way things are too much because it's just the way things are, so if you figured out how to get ahead of the game congratulations, if not... hey, here's a diploma you can use for... not much, but if you want another shot at figuring things out you're welcome to keep going, but you gotta pay now!
In other actually on topic news: fuck.
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 02:37:22 am
K-12 is kindergarden til 12th grade. Basically all the school children attend before they become an adult. Does not include colleges, but plenty of colleges are shutting down as well.
...And they're shutting them down for the rest of the YEAR? That's crazy. Straight crazy.
Edit: I realised immediately after posting that they of course mean school year. I guess I had forgotten those kinds of year exist ;)
Still crazy though! But not quite as crazy.
Post by: wierd on March 18, 2020, 02:38:12 am
Post by: Greiger on March 18, 2020, 02:58:36 am
EDIT: Then if it's anything like my experience with the online only classes I took in college, the school may require people to purchase expensive software. Like an art class requiring all their students to buy the newest version of photoshop, and requiring all assignments to be turned in in some format only that can do. Or an english class that requires all homework to be submitted in whatever microsoft's new .DOC format equivalent is. The excuse back then was that if we didn't want to invest money into our software we clearly were not serious about our studies.
Post by: coalboat on March 18, 2020, 03:16:28 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 18, 2020, 03:45:44 am
Point is, US schools have some protocols in place to do remote learning already, though it will vary heavily by state. I don't expect it to go smoothly.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 04:43:52 am
We have a good healtcare and insurance system in the Netherlands, but I'm still worried for what this will do for people with low income who will lose their jobs over this. Still we likely are in a better position than some of the countries out there. I really hope this virus will go away with higher temperatures, and that areas like africa will be unafected for similar reasons. So far the lower numbers from the southern hemisphere offer some hope, but cases in Australia and Brasil are rising now, which is worrying.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 05:02:00 am
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 05:03:46 am
We have a good healtcare and insurance system in the Netherlands, but I'm still worried for what this will do for people with low income who will lose their jobs over this. Still we likely are in a better position than some of the countries out there. I really hope this virus will go away with higher temperatures, and that areas like africa will be unafected for similar reasons. So far the lower numbers from the southern hemisphere over some hope, but cases in Australia and Brasil are rising now, which is worrying.I would not expect too much from summer. Difference is tiny, if any. (would be happy to see data saying otherwise)
And so far low reported infection counts in say Africa seem to be clearly result of low testing rates, or treating it as not important issue (what in case of some countries may be sadly true).
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 05:42:08 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 06:37:32 am
This is Holland you're talking about. They don't have a profit-driven penal system, so that incentive doesn't exist. Furthermore, it's voluntary, since you can't be forced to work if you haven't been sentenced to labour.This.
You guys are really trying to find a hole in this.
Our prisons are luxury hotels compared to US prisons and most certainly do not have any profit-driven incentive.
That, and less than 0.1% of our population is in prison (about 15000 prisoners on a population of 17.2 million), compared to 0,7% (2.3 million people) in the US.
Even if the majority of them choose to work, that's barely any competition for regular jobs on the outside.
Hello, I'd like to point out that there is a terrible lack of healthcare material right now. Those masks are specially needed, doubly so if somehow they are assembling HEPA masks.They are not making HEPA masks yet, for lack of basic materials.
For now they are making cotton masks, and those will primarily be used to hand out to those in the prison population who show signs of flu / cold / corona.
They will be making HEPA masks for the hospitals once medical grade materials are available.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 18, 2020, 06:46:08 am
Either way exponential growth is kicking in now.
Post by: Frumple on March 18, 2020, 07:09:20 am
Yeah, I wrote that I hoped warm weather would have an effect, but in the back of my mind I kind of already know the answer will be "no".Actually, from what folks have pieced together from available data, warm weather does seem to have an effect. Iirc it's something like a third of a percent reduction in spread per infected (R number) per Celsius increase, and about a fifth of a percent per percent increase in relative humidity, going by information collected in china. So if humidity jacks up about 80% and/or the temperature spikes about 40 or so degrees C, and stays that way, you'd probably see a pretty significant reduction in the rate of transmission.
But, y'know, the R value for crow plague is somewhere over 2, so, uh. It's no silver bullet.
E: Source (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767), incidentally. It's not necessarily super great data or 100% generalizable, but there's apparent suggestion warm and humid weather does have some degree of mitigation effect on transmission.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 18, 2020, 07:26:53 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 07:29:49 am
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 07:30:41 am
E: Source (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767), incidentally. It's not necessarily super great data or 100% generalizable, but there's apparent suggestion warm and humid weather does have some degree of mitigation effect on transmission.
Thanks for posting source! Sadly, it seems low quality - "Table 1 about here", there is no table.
And from looking at actually included images they assume that South Korea and Malaysia has the same case detection rate! Running linear regression on that and assuming that temperature/humidity causes all differences is not too helpful.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 07:31:06 am
What I'm wondering today is if China will get new infection sites, as it seems most of the population was never infected and thus whatever the immune period is should be irrelevant. The government proved its ability to respond and contain, but that doesn't help much if it requires an act of national economic suicide every time or in the face of the asymptomatic rate. I do not believe in the quarantined factory model for one second.
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 07:35:15 am
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 07:36:10 am
Yeah, I wrote that I hoped warm weather would have an effect, but in the back of my mind I kind of already know the answer will be "no".Actually, from what folks have pieced together from available data, warm weather does seem to have an effect. Iirc it's something like a third of a percent reduction in spread per infected (R number) per Celsius increase, and about a fifth of a percent per percent increase in relative humidity, going by information collected in china. So if humidity jacks up about 80% and/or the temperature spikes about 40 or so degrees C, and stays that way, you'd probably see a pretty significant reduction in the rate of transmission.
But, y'know, the R value for crow plague is somewhere over 2, so, uh. It's no silver bullet.
E: Source (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767), incidentally. It's not necessarily super great data or 100% generalizable, but there's apparent suggestion warm and humid weather does have some degree of mitigation effect on transmission.
Hmm. I'm not quite sure what increased humidity would do. maybe droplets with virus would not travel as far under those circumstances?
Increased heat would indeed lead to faster denaturation but I think the effect would only be marginal as DNA/RNA should be stable at those temperatures. But droplets with virus would dry out much faster and that could have an effect. I guess other factors like increased solar iradiation (more UV light) would help out as well. And people spend much more time outside in good weather. The virus spreads more easily in confined spaces, compared to open air.
Let's hope the low numbers from Africa are due to these effects, and not underreporting. They have enough nasty tropical diseases that we never have to worry about, it would be fair if they get a pass for this one.
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 07:36:42 am
We eventually want 60% or more of our population to have been infected, to achieve group immunity.
Total lockdown could slow the infection rate too much, resulting in the virus coming back every cold season for years on.
Need to find a balance between getting enough people infected (and immune after that) and overcrowding hospitals.
EDIT: ah, apparently the english term for group immunity is herd immunity.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 07:40:34 am
Post by: Cthulhu on March 18, 2020, 07:41:15 am
Post by: Yoink on March 18, 2020, 07:41:40 am
Not because I'm worried about catching the virus, oh no, rather because this situation (where I am, that is) would normally be really upsetting what with the whole missing out on gigs and parties and just my usual social life in general. This time, basically everything's been cancelled anyway.
I probably wouldn't even have sufficient paper to wipe my arse with by now, if I were still living in the city.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 07:48:37 am
Our health experts are pondering now if complete lockdown is maybe a bad idea.
We eventually want 60% or more of our population to have been infected, to achieve group immunity.
Total lockdown could slow the infection rate too much, resulting in the virus coming back every cold season for years on.
Need to find a balance between getting enough people infected (and immune after that) and overcrowding hospitals.
EDIT: ah, apparently the english term for group immunity is herd immunity.
Reaching group immunity by relaxing containtment of the virus would come at a terrible, terrible cost. You would have to accept that 1-4% of those 60% of people are going to die, and that probably 10% of the patients if not more would need intensive medical care.
China managed to bring new cases to almost zero by strict measures, it would be interesting to see if they can restart their economy while keeping it contained. If they can that would be the way to go.
Post by: Frumple on March 18, 2020, 07:51:12 am
Let's hope the low numbers from Africa are due to these effects, and not underreporting. They have enough nasty tropical diseases that we never have to worry about, it would be fair if they get a pass for this one.Crow plague's just kinda' global at this point, and meaningfully infectious even in warmer areas. If you're seeing low reported numbers it's almost certainly due to the nation in question just not goddamn testing. The closest to exception there is basically china and south korea at this point, and that seeming to be because they're about the only thing of meaningful size not fucking up response super hard.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 18, 2020, 07:52:08 am
We eventually want 60% or more of our population to have been infected, to achieve group immunity.The UK strategy? They backed off on that when they realized thousands upon thousands of people would die
Post by: Iduno on March 18, 2020, 08:02:11 am
martinuzz has highlighted the following:
It is voluntary.
They get paid.
Slave labour is not voluntary, frequently unpaid, and requires the use of slaves - those who are legally the possessions of another person.
I'll add that I don't see much wrong with using prisoners as cheap labour, though it being voluntary is perhaps an essential criteria. They are, after all, being punished. If they choose to relieve their boredom by doing community service work, why not?
Right. This is indentured servitude.
It's really not harmless, undercutting jobs that might actually meaningfully support a family just as a start. We should really not fucking incentivize corps to figure out how to wrangle paying their workers fuckall by reason of them being currently incarcerated, and that's just the tip of the iceberg so far as issues with penal labor goes. Either pay the work what it's due or fuck off, and 80 cents per hour isn't the due for goddamn anything anymore.This is Holland you're talking about. They don't have a profit-driven penal system, so that incentive doesn't exist. Furthermore, it's voluntary, since you can't be forced to work if you haven't been sentenced to labour.
You guys are really trying to find a hole in this.
They do now. They found a way to get suckers to support manufacturing for 30 cents/hour.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 18, 2020, 08:03:59 am
Denatured, not very likely. If the virus thrives in a fevered body, it can also thrive in outside temperatures in that range.More likely, less humidity. Microdroplets evaporating faster in warmer weather so travel distance for the virus decreases.thanks, I was guessing because I know higher temperatures denatures proteins, I wasn’t thinking about evaporation, unfortunately
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 08:07:23 am
Overloading hospitals is virtually inevitable at any level of mitigation below total shutdown. The british did projections and found the best outcomes as far as mortality goes are rolling shutdowns to keep r0 down until a vaccine or good treatment is available. Herd immunity strategies were looking at 250,000+ deaths in the UK and over 2 million in the US
Our health experts are pondering now if complete lockdown is maybe a bad idea.
We eventually want 60% or more of our population to have been infected, to achieve group immunity.
Total lockdown could slow the infection rate too much, resulting in the virus coming back every cold season for years on.
Need to find a balance between getting enough people infected (and immune after that) and overcrowding hospitals.
EDIT: ah, apparently the english term for group immunity is herd immunity.
See, in the last couple of days I'm thinking about this more and more:
My suspicion is that the reason EVERY COUNTRY IN THE WEST is doing so poorly is because all of them thought at first as the British goverment. That is: First they thought "no way! I'm not stopping the country for a couple of months!" and they deferred. Then they were told the dead toll if they didnt and panicked.
I think the only difference is that Boris Johnson announced it publically while the rest kept it quiet.
It would explain many things about the odd contradictory things they've been saying.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 18, 2020, 08:22:49 am
Denatured, not very likely. If the virus thrives in a fevered body, it can also thrive in outside temperatures in that range.More likely, less humidity. Microdroplets evaporating faster in warmer weather so travel distance for the virus decreases.thanks, I was guessing because I know higher temperatures denatures proteins, I wasn’t thinking about evaporation, unfortunately
As far as I know even enveloped viruses survive longer in dry weather, at least when it's cold. UV light is a big one, high UVC reduces corona infectiveness on a surface to below detectable levels in like fifteen minutes; they should really be deploying UVC lamps in high-traffic areas and stores. Also cold dry weather leads to dry mucus membranes, which don't shed foreign particles as easily.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 18, 2020, 08:27:58 am
they should really be deploying UVC lamps in high-traffic areas and stores.Artificial UVC will burn skin and the eyes (https://wwd.com/eye/parties/hypebeast-party-uv-lights-injuries-11036559/) so, uh, that's not gonna work right now.
Human safe UVC is being developed but we're not fully there yet
Post by: McTraveller on March 18, 2020, 08:56:12 am
thousands upon thousands of people would dieSo like any other day of the week?
I'm not even being sarcastic. I mean hell, worldometer says there have been 65k deaths already today, 2.7M deaths so far this year (15k so far today, which I suspect includes COVID) from all communicable diseases. Apparently there have even been about 47k abortions today so far! So why the flying f*** are we holing ourselves up over this thing?
I mean we as society kill more people per day in car crashes (~1500 so far today).
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 09:01:44 am
The irony.
EDIT: as was to be expected, the Eurovision songfestival has been cancelled.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 18, 2020, 09:02:15 am
Post by: TamerVirus on March 18, 2020, 09:08:09 am
So like any other day of the week?It's just the flu, bro!
I'm not even being sarcastic. I mean hell, worldometer says there have been 65k deaths already today, 2.7M deaths so far this year (15k so far today, which I suspect includes COVID) from all communicable diseases. Apparently there have even been about 47k abortions today so far! So why the flying f*** are we holing ourselves up over this thing?
I mean we as society kill more people per day in car crashes (~1500 so far today).
Fuck, are we still doing this?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 09:11:45 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 09:20:46 am
Yeah :(So like any other day of the week?It's just the flu, bro!
I'm not even being sarcastic. I mean hell, worldometer says there have been 65k deaths already today, 2.7M deaths so far this year (15k so far today, which I suspect includes COVID) from all communicable diseases. Apparently there have even been about 47k abortions today so far! So why the flying f*** are we holing ourselves up over this thing?
I mean we as society kill more people per day in car crashes (~1500 so far today).
Fuck, are we still doing this?
I think there are two, no three problems at hand:
-first, our goverments have told us over and over than it wouldn't happen (and to me Western goverments have lost all credibility now)
- second: the virus is really insidious. The personal risk for any given rando is actually low. So many don't care. "Its just a flu". It looks like that indeed. Problem is it infects everyone. If it's a flu it's the 1918 flu. It crushes healthcare systems.
- third: this is all very out of context. In no small measure it's hard to believe because nothing this tremendous has happened in the last 80 years. I think its probably par with the world wars. We dont want to believe it. Fuck I'm hoping Chinese aid arrives ASAP now. I'd personally blow Xi Jingpin at this point if it brought it in two days sooner.
Post by: McTraveller on March 18, 2020, 09:32:53 am
No, it's not the flu. It's worse than the flu: we have taken this worse than a flu illness and turned it into a worldwide catastrophe. It's like 5% actual virus severity and 95% media-induced madness.
It's just the flu, bro!
Fuck, are we still doing this?
Many places are throwing away a year of education for their youth.
Who knows how many years of economic development we're throwing away, which will make it even more difficult to deal with such illnesses in the future.
We've made it "acceptable" for all societies to just lock everyone down - probably the worst thing of all.
I don't fear the illness - I fear our response to it. Our response has been fear and despair and blame, not resolve and strength and standing together (calls to "let's shut everything down for the sake of our neighbors" - that's making an atrocity sound like a good thing).
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 09:39:19 am
Throw open the factories, and let the fire sweep us clean, purer and finally triumphant over ourselves.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 18, 2020, 09:46:08 am
He's got a point. Our whole world is built on an aegis of self-annihilation through capitalism, and here we are turning to harm reduction like a bunch of fucking communists. Is this truly the extent of our dedication? I was promised the suicide of whole civilizations!i hope you are joking about harm reduction being communist, if not, when the fuck did it become communist?
Throw open the factories, and let the fire sweep us clean, purer and finally triumphant over ourselves.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 09:46:14 am
You were comparing it with car crashes. Let me make an analogy for you: the reason the UK dropped the idea you're advocating is that their official experts showed them data suggesting around 200.000 people dead and total collapse of the NHS. And we still dont know if we'll have more outbreaks
During the entire world war 2, the UK lost around 450.000 people. That goes for around 90.000 a year.
So here's the conundrum McTraveller: not doing anything will kill twice as many people per year as world war 2 did. That's why this is very dangerous
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 09:49:23 am
We've made it "acceptable" for all societies to just lock everyone down - probably the worst thing of all.That is a good thing. We have relatively mild illness (still making quarantines t be likely net positive), hopefully in case of more serious one response will be less resembling bunch of headless chickens.
And we are going to loss weeks/months of economical development at most. Quarantine is not going to last for years.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 09:53:22 am
You're mistaken McTraveller. This is really really serious. You dont realize what havoc will this wreak on healthcare and how many people will dir as a consequence.And those 200.000 would likely not even take into account that people would die of other causes, if the NHS collapsed.
You were comparing it with car crashes. Let me make an analogy for you: the reason the UK dropped the idea you're advocating is that their official experts showed them data suggesting around 200.000 people dead and total collapse of the NHS. And we still dont know if we'll have more outbreaks
During the entire world war 2, the UK lost around 450.000 people. That goes for around 90.000 a year.
So here's the conundrum McTraveller: not doing anything will kill twice as many people per year as world war 2 did. That's why this is very dangerous
Post by: McTraveller on March 18, 2020, 09:54:38 am
Social distancing does work, yes, but we've gone way beyond social distancing to forced isolation. Can we not see the difference there? In some places the force has been with physical force, but even worse are the places now where the forcing is "cultural" where people are shaming each other for trying to live somewhat normally.
PREVIEW: Where the heck do you get that it is inevitable that this will kill twice as many people per year (in the UK) as WWII? Is this a real projection or a worst-case projection?
I really question the ability of everyone to assess "danger" - there's never any middle ground. It's either "no danger at all" or "the worst thing ever." I'm somewhere in the middle. I seem to have a hard time communicating that fact. Take action, yes. But don't destroy confidence in society.
@mko - shutting things down for a few weeks/months has much longer lasting impact than those weeks/months. Generally I'm positive on the economy, but this is going to result in structural change - it's going to take a long time to see how it all plays out.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 18, 2020, 10:04:25 am
*Hugs the ChairmanPoo*
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 10:08:00 am
Amputation is a last resort, not the first thing you do because you have a cut and it might get infected with gangrene which can kill you and then say "oh well turns out that was overkill. Sorry."
Social distancing does work, yes, but we've gone way beyond social distancing to forced isolation. Can we not see the difference there? In some places the force has been with physical force, but even worse are the places now where the forcing is "cultural" where people are shaming each other for trying to live somewhat normally.
PREVIEW: Where the heck do you get that it is inevitable that this will kill twice as many people per year (in the UK) as WWII? Is this a real projection or a worst-case projection?
I really question the ability of everyone to assess "danger" - there's never any middle ground. It's either "no danger at all" or "the worst thing ever." I'm somewhere in the middle. I seem to have a hard time communicating that fact. Take action, yes. But don't destroy confidence in society.
@mko - shutting things down for a few weeks/months has much longer lasting impact than those weeks/months. Generally I'm positive on the economy, but this is going to result in structural change - it's going to take a long time to see how it all plays out.
You are certainly right that lockdowns and other measures greatly impede freedom of people, and that we should be very wary that this power does not end up being abused by goverments. But that does not mean these measures are not needed right now.
The economy is taking a beating, but I'm quite sure that if we went full-capitalist on this, and allowed the disease to wreck the elderly and those without health insurance in the name of profit, it would end up backfiring in terrible ways.
Edit: There is the problem that if your measures aren't effective enough you can't go back and try again, at that point it would be out of control, and we already let this slip in the early stages. Better safe than sorry for our second try.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 10:15:16 am
McTraveller, this disease, if we don't keep strict isolation measures, may end up killing 7-8% of *everyone* over a certain age (mainly septuagenarians, if I recall correctly. Also, ChairmanPoo is a doctor. Mebbe listen to them.I honestly cried at this. Thus
*Hugs the ChairmanPoo*
But I didnt believe it either a couple of weeks ago. I couldn't. It was so enormous that it beggars belief. Deep down I really wanted to believe the goverment's propaganda that we could control it by being smart and handwashing. I feel really really stupid for having put any stock on what they told us.
Now we are all holding out for Chinese humanitarian aid. I mean could anyone imagine this situation? We're not even refugees because we can't get out.
In that way I understand McTraveller. He doesn't believe it because he can't grasp how terrible this is. It's hard not to whimper when you stop to think about it
Post by: nenjin on March 18, 2020, 10:27:34 am
He's got a point. Our whole world is built on an aegis of self-annihilation through capitalism, and here we are turning to harm reduction like a bunch of fucking communists. Is this truly the extent of our dedication? I was promised the suicide of whole civilizations!i hope you are joking about harm reduction being communist, if not, when the fuck did it become communist?
Throw open the factories, and let the fire sweep us clean, purer and finally triumphant over ourselves.
You'll have to be forgiven for being semi-new here: MSH is mainlining bombast and has been since Trump was elected. You just start learning to take his statements with several grains of salt.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 18, 2020, 10:37:15 am
MSH is saying all the harm reduction legislation in the US is things formerly called "communist" or "socialist" by the capitalist booster clubs, and that we're wimping out on being ideological purists who are "never socialism". As I read it.He's got a point. Our whole world is built on an aegis of self-annihilation through capitalism, and here we are turning to harm reduction like a bunch of fucking communists. Is this truly the extent of our dedication? I was promised the suicide of whole civilizations!i hope you are joking about harm reduction being communist, if not, when the fuck did it become communist?
Throw open the factories, and let the fire sweep us clean, purer and finally triumphant over ourselves.
Post by: McTraveller on March 18, 2020, 10:40:15 am
He doesn't believe it because he can't grasp how terrible this is. It's hard not to whimper when you stop to think about itThis is probably fair - I don't know (or even have any basis for understanding, really) "how terrible this is". I can't wrap my head around what makes this more terrible than any other terrible condition of humanity. Is it because it is new? Is it because its impact is being felt over a short period of time?
I'm also of the opinion there is a different between "how terrible it is" versus "how terrible we feel it is", even though that is merely an academic difference.
I also think there is a dramatic difference between how bad it is depending on your very specific geographic location. I don't work/live in a big city. I don't work in a hospital so I don't see a sudden change / impact in hospital business or change in mortality. Proximity (or lack thereof) definitely informs opinion and sentiment.
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 10:40:42 am
IKEA has closed it's stores in the Netherlands.
How are we supposed to hoard if we can't get more shelves?
Post by: coalboat on March 18, 2020, 10:56:34 am
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 10:56:57 am
Post by: Reelya on March 18, 2020, 11:08:55 am
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 11:49:37 am
PREVIEW: Where the heck do you get that it is inevitable that this will kill twice as many people per year (in the UK) as WWII? Is this a real projection or a worst-case projection?https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom#cite_note-Imperial16March2020-19
"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality."
Page 13 for expected death count in GB, depending on scenario - death ranging from half million to 48 000.
To compare - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#Human_losses_by_country UK had around 450 00 death during WW II (Poland had 6 000 000, Soviet Union 27 000 000).
Because it can get far worse. Italy death count reached 2500, what is less that all deaths on a normal weekend. And less than death from vehicle accidents during a year. But it can get worse.He doesn't believe it because he can't grasp how terrible this is. It's hard not to whimper when you stop to think about itThis is probably fair - I don't know (or even have any basis for understanding, really) "how terrible this is". I can't wrap my head around what makes this more terrible than any other terrible condition of humanity. Is it because it is new? Is it because its impact is being felt over a short period of time?
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 18, 2020, 11:54:10 am
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 11:55:18 am
*hugs online therefore preserving social distancing*McTraveller, this disease, if we don't keep strict isolation measures, may end up killing 7-8% of *everyone* over a certain age (mainly septuagenarians, if I recall correctly. Also, ChairmanPoo is a doctor. Mebbe listen to them.I honestly cried at this. Thus
*Hugs the ChairmanPoo*
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 12:04:33 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 12:09:05 pm
Wuhan has proven that lockdown can effectively contain the virus, but you don't want YOUR city to be the one locked down. Considering the virus is already everywhere, no one can be sure where he lives is in no danger of needing quarantine. Individuals staying away from each other is much more important than locking down a whole city, and brings less collateral damage (which means saving lives in some cases).Yes coalboat. In theory people staying away from each other is enough. In theory washing hands is enough.
That's what every western european nation believed and tried. Look where we are now. This thing is tearing us up. I dont even think it's alternate vectors doing this. I think its that you need lockdowns because otherwise people wont socially isolate. Even with the lockdown, even with the pandemic, some people try to dodge the rules and do their own thing.
People are really, really stupid and selfish yes
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 12:13:12 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 18, 2020, 12:14:49 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 18, 2020, 12:16:41 pm
Seriously though, probably a good thing. As long as someone didn't go and name it Princess, too.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 12:18:15 pm
Amputation is a last resort, not the first thing you do because you have a cut and it might get infected with gangrene which can kill you and then say "oh well turns out that was overkill. Sorry."This is not a last resort here. Thats the approach every western european nation took, and we are all struggling now. The latter you do it, the worse it is.
The problem with epidemic prevention is that if it works it always looks excessive. Because it worked.
Quote
Social distancing does work, yes, but we've gone way beyond social distancing to forced isolation. Can we not see the difference there? In some places the force has been with physical force, but even worse are the places now where the forcing is "cultural" where people are shaming each other for trying to live somewhat normally.It's a collective threat. Anyone breaking ranks is being utterly irresponsible. Threatening the lives of thousands.
Quote
PREVIEW: Where the heck do you get that it is inevitable that this will kill twice as many people per year (in the UK) as WWII? Is this a real projection or a worst-case projection?It's not inevitable. It's what happens if you let the disease run it's course.
It's not just another flu. Noone has immunity. It might be mild for most of us, maybe even the vast majority of us. But it doesn't stop or get delayed because there is no herd immunity.
But it can be avoided, IF we do lockdowns.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 12:20:31 pm
We're doing just fine here in SwedenThough most of continental Europe had regained control of civil society by mid-summer, the Scandinavian nations and most notably Sweden remained in a state of unrest due to lower temperatures, allowing the virus to thrive year-round. Although the hastily formed EU Army attempted to restore order, lack of experience and extreme hostility from a formerly peaceful society ultimately lead to the semi-acciental Burning of Stockholm and the abandonment of the region to statelessness as the winter returned, and with it the newly-mutated SARS-Cov-3.
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 12:33:50 pm
Post by: Zangi on March 18, 2020, 12:36:42 pm
It gets worse as more people get Covid19. The actual % of people that need to be hospitalized might be in the ball park of 20%.
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 18, 2020, 12:54:07 pm
If 1 million people gets Covid19 and 5% of that 1 million needs to be hospitalized. That is 50k people taking up hospital bed space.
It gets worse as more people get Covid19. The actual % of people that need to be hospitalized might be in the ball park of 20%.
And, to put that in context, in my local region (in a major US metropolitan area, I should add) that has well over a million people we have less than a thousand ICUs in capacity. ICU is more intensive than just a hospital bed, yes, but the ICU rate for this virus is not low.
Edit: To get a bit at the Imperial College study, by my read one of the major causes of death is lack of capacity - people who need intensive care / hospital care unable to get it, and thus die at frightening rates. Their projection for total US deaths if we all do proper isolation is 'only' in the thousands, but that isolation would need to be done until we get a vaccine - which could be over a year.
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 12:59:46 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 01:00:26 pm
Realistically speaking I dont think we have the xapacity to sustain a lockdown for a year. It will hurt to do it for a couple of months. In fact I think we'll have to figure out something fast to try to avoid future lockdowns
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 18, 2020, 01:03:49 pm
I dont think the idea is to hold isolation until a vaccine. I think the idea is to hold isolation until most infections die down and then monitor closely to restart it if it peaks again.
Realistically speaking I dont think we have the xapacity to sustain a lockdown for a year. It will hurt to do it for a couple of months. In fact I think we'll have to figure out something fast to try to avoid future lockdowns
Yeah, I agree with all that. (That said, I work in politics and the environment, not medicine, so take my word with a grain of salt.) The paper does express some evidence/hope of a middle ground of managed periods out of isolation, but neither seems at all realistic to do at a national scale for over a year.
Speaking of which, things are definitely weird in the halls of U.S. Congress.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 18, 2020, 01:05:01 pm
weird how?I dont think the idea is to hold isolation until a vaccine. I think the idea is to hold isolation until most infections die down and then monitor closely to restart it if it peaks again.
Realistically speaking I dont think we have the xapacity to sustain a lockdown for a year. It will hurt to do it for a couple of months. In fact I think we'll have to figure out something fast to try to avoid future lockdowns
Yeah, I agree with all that. (That said, I work in politics and the environment, not medicine, so take my word with a grain of salt.) The paper does express some evidence/hope of a middle ground of managed periods out of isolation, but neither seems at all realistic to do at a national scale for over a year.
Speaking of which, things are definitely weird in the halls of U.S. Congress.
Post by: McTraveller on March 18, 2020, 01:07:49 pm
Noone has immunity.Honest academic question: Aren't there "natural" immunities that may be expected in some portion of the population? I mean even if exposed, with no vaccine or whatever, is it physically possible to have 100% infection rate?
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 18, 2020, 01:15:15 pm
weird how?
Usual politics upended, at least for the short term. All the assumptions about the upcoming next 6-18 months are being entirely replaced with an extremely different world, and even that changes by the day.
As a small example (at least briefly, before 'clarifying' remarks) some of the most conservative Senators touted very leftward ideas. Few people seem to have a really strong hold on what to do.
That said, there is certainly some level of normalcy - everybody wants a ride on the upcoming stimulus train, of course.
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 01:17:53 pm
I dont think the idea is to hold isolation until a vaccine. I think the idea is to hold isolation until most infections die down and then monitor closely to restart it if it peaks again.Build more ICUs and train more existing medical staff to operate them would be a good start.
Realistically speaking I dont think we have the xapacity to sustain a lockdown for a year. It will hurt to do it for a couple of months. In fact I think we'll have to figure out something fast to try to avoid future lockdowns
I hope our governments don't spend all their funds on compensating company losses, but invest in majorly expanding disease control capacity as well.
And general access to healthcare for those countries who don't have that like the US.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 01:28:27 pm
This does happen sometimes, but the two big examples are the anti-Black Death gene which also happens to confer resistance to HIV and sickle cell disorder conveying resistance to malaria. As you can see, both these cases are long term adaptations to long term human diseases - even including a trait that is actively detrimental, just not more detrimental than malaria.Noone has immunity.Honest academic question: Aren't there "natural" immunities that may be expected in some portion of the population? I mean even if exposed, with no vaccine or whatever, is it physically possible to have 100% infection rate?
For a novel disease, its going to be a much smaller segment of the population if any segment at all which has a process mutation that happens to screw Covid's reproductive cycle somehow. Evolution would do the work eventually, but unless we find such a case and it's something we can induce in people, it's of no use.
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 01:40:04 pm
Post by: andrea on March 18, 2020, 01:42:15 pm
I'd like to remind people that in the most affected areas in Italy, mortuaries and funeral homes are collapsing just as much as hospitals.
Post by: TD1 on March 18, 2020, 02:10:07 pm
To clarify, I don't have it. I just really, really don't want it.
Oh, and there's always something to do on the farm. For instance, Roberta, a 16 year old cow-who-was-mainly-a-pet got very, very sick with a fever, so we were going to her pen daily to turn her over. (She died yesterday though).
Post by: nenjin on March 18, 2020, 02:18:31 pm
We're only at 19 confirmed cases as of right now. That's almost double from Friday of last week. So it seems so far we're doing ok here, but I don't know the story behind testing kits and what not. Town is certainly taking the social distancing fairly seriously though.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 02:24:27 pm
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 18, 2020, 02:28:30 pm
(That said, I suppose I'll see if this response ages well in the weeks to come.)
Metro ridership (our DC-area public transit) numbers are down 80% compared to last year, so I guess people are taking things relatively seriously here. Nature of my job means working from home is quite easy, which I appreciate is quite a luxury to have.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 18, 2020, 02:33:09 pm
Lots of local businesses are shuttered/on hiatus for the time being so there's noticeably less people wandering the streets.
A good 80% of the people I see out and about are wearing surgical masks, with the occasional N95. Some scalper goons trying to sell individual masks on the streets
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 18, 2020, 02:37:26 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 18, 2020, 03:15:49 pm
I think its that you need lockdowns because otherwise people wont socially isolate. Even with the lockdown, even with the pandemic, some people try to dodge the rules and do their own thing.
People are really, really stupid and selfish yes
The number of people who came back home sick and infected hundreds before anyone figured out the sick person was sick says that's probably the problem.
I hope our governments don't spend all their funds on compensating company losses, but invest in majorly expanding disease control capacity as well.
Hope it works elsewhere, the US has made it clear which people matter here.
Post by: Enemy post on March 18, 2020, 03:19:16 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 03:21:14 pm
I mean the main problem is that many people dont even figure they're sick and they spread the disease.I think its that you need lockdowns because otherwise people wont socially isolate. Even with the lockdown, even with the pandemic, some people try to dodge the rules and do their own thing.
People are really, really stupid and selfish yes
The number of people who came back home sick and infected hundreds before anyone figured out the sick person was sick says that's probably the problem.
This would be less of a problem if people were aware of this and didnt ignore the recommendations because they felt fine
I wonder what effect all this effort to fight the coronavirus will have on other diseases.I have second hand info about a major hospital in Madrid: organ transplants, oncological surgery... all cancelled.
Some of those people will die. We wont see those deaths as covid deaths. Doesnt matter one iota if you're one or the other
Post by: martinuzz on March 18, 2020, 03:49:43 pm
Post by: McTraveller on March 18, 2020, 03:52:05 pm
I have second hand info about a major hospital in Madrid: organ transplants, oncological surgery... all cancelled.I know the US they were talking about cancelling the huge number of elective surgeries - I didn't know places were considering (or implementing) cancelling any kind of emergency / critical surgery.
Some of those people will die. We wont see those deaths as covid deaths. Doesnt matter one iota if you're one or the other
Post by: mko on March 18, 2020, 04:12:43 pm
I have second hand info about a major hospital in Madrid: organ transplants, oncological surgery... all cancelled.I know the US they were talking about cancelling the huge number of elective surgeries - I didn't know places were considering (or implementing) cancelling any kind of emergency / critical surgery.
Some of those people will die. We wont see those deaths as covid deaths. Doesnt matter one iota if you're one or the other
Italy run out of ventilators, patients that were old or with complications were not fully treated in at least some hospitals.
---
“We recognize based on current data that our local Covid-19 trajectory is likely to be similar to that of Northern Italy,” read an email one hospital in the Seattle area sent to its surgeons.
"Alison Krupnick had surgery scheduled to remove early stage cervical cancer, but because of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, her surgery was being postponed indefinitely to keep hospital beds open" (...) "Dr. Simmonds said slow-growing cancers, like prostate and cervical cancer, were more likely to be delayed. "
"An older person who has a total hip replacement may need to recuperate at a skilled nursing center — institutions that have been hit hard by the coronavirus. “As you can imagine, in this time, that’s probably not the best thing for that patient,”"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/us/coronavirus-covid-surgeries-canceled.html
Post by: nenjin on March 18, 2020, 04:32:20 pm
Quote
"Alison Krupnick had surgery scheduled to remove early stage cervical cancer, but because of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, her surgery was being postponed indefinitely to keep hospital beds open" (...) "Dr. Simmonds said slow-growing cancers, like prostate and cervical cancer, were more likely to be delayed. "
Great, I'm taking my mom to the hospital tomorrow for Uteran Cancer. With our numbers being low here still so far, maybe they won't delay her. But that's like, the last thing she needs to hear, that she's going to have to wait to remove her stage 1 cancer which will inevitably become stage 2 and on.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 18, 2020, 05:10:44 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 05:19:39 pm
Talk it through with the teamQuote"Alison Krupnick had surgery scheduled to remove early stage cervical cancer, but because of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, her surgery was being postponed indefinitely to keep hospital beds open" (...) "Dr. Simmonds said slow-growing cancers, like prostate and cervical cancer, were more likely to be delayed. "
Great, I'm taking my mom to the hospital tomorrow for Uteran Cancer. With our numbers being low here still so far, maybe they won't delay her. But that's like, the last thing she needs to hear, that she's going to have to wait to remove her stage 1 cancer which will inevitably become stage 2 and on.
Post by: Iduno on March 18, 2020, 05:22:13 pm
Netflix will likely be forced to lower it's video quality because the internets are overloading.
It has always done that, automatically.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 05:46:22 pm
Monkeys develop protective antibodies to SARS-COV2 (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/monkeys-develop-protective-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2-67281?utm_content=122140724&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-102639353225134&fbclid=IwAR1yfc_ULC___HUOJ3X_6hlcbLqPceGYNPf_wJv6P3IyPzWTiWS0iu1-8zs)
If we manage to survive this first strike we might get some herd immunity out of it.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 18, 2020, 05:50:26 pm
Finally, some good news+ to = expected mistake considering close proximity to each other on touchscreens
Monkeys develop protective antibodies to SARS-COV2 (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/monkeys-develop-protective-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2-67281?utm_content=122140724&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-102639353225134&fbclid=IwAR1yfc_ULC___HUOJ3X_6hlcbLqPceGYNPf_wJv6P3IyPzWTiWS0iu1-8zs)
If we manage to survive this first strike we might get some herd immunity out of it.
This is not intended to be rude, some people think corrections are rude which is why I am clarifying that it isn’t intended as such
This is good that we found this, a step closer to the cure hopefully
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2020, 05:54:18 pm
This is not intended to be rude, some people think corrections are rude
this is wrong of them, we must correct their ways
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 18, 2020, 05:59:25 pm
Indeed. It would be incorrect to be aware of the problem and not attempt to correct it.This is not intended to be rude, some people think corrections are rude
this is wrong of them, we must correct their ways
Edit: Upon further reflection I realized I was the one that fucked up. I stand corrected.
Post by: TD1 on March 18, 2020, 06:05:20 pm
Finally, some good news
Monkeys develop protective antibodies to SARS-COV2 (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/monkeys-develop-protective-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2-67281?utm_content=122140724&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-102639353225134&fbclid=IwAR1yfc_ULC___HUOJ3X_6hlcbLqPceGYNPf_wJv6P3IyPzWTiWS0iu1-8zs)
If we manage to survive this first strike we might get some herd immunity out of it.
The picture heading that, I guess, has little white antibodies swarming the virus.
They look like toiletpaper.
Post by: nenjin on March 18, 2020, 07:50:35 pm
Best wishes for you and your mother.
Appreciate it.
Quote from: ChairmanPoo
Talk it through with the team
I understand it's largely out of our hands. The diagnosis is still so early, very little is known other than it's there. So surgery may not have even been possible under normal conditions for months. We'll just have to see.
....but I'm wearing a pair of gloves when I walk in there, fuck whoever looks. Hospitals have never made me comfortable. I'm not a germophobe but I'm understand enough to already be mindful of how many places and ways you can contract something. Most especially in hospitals.
edit
Oh yeah. My grocery store just went from 24-hour to 12-hour availability. "In order to better sanitize and restock shelves." Which means by 5:30pm when I've gotten there, it might already be out of stock, especially if people keep up the hoarding. May have to start getting up at 7am to buy groceries, and guaranteed there will be lines of people outside waiting to do the same. Trying to stay positive but shit continues to get incrementally spookier.
Post by: Iduno on March 18, 2020, 10:25:18 pm
https://twitter.com/sparkysheep/status/1238755182692859904 (https://twitter.com/sparkysheep/status/1238755182692859904)
https://twitter.com/trashnightvideo (https://twitter.com/trashnightvideo)
+ to = expected mistake considering close proximity to each other on touchscreens
Ok, I'm going to need an explanation on what this means. I might just be tired (or a good many other things), but the first half of that sentence confuses me.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 18, 2020, 10:44:52 pm
More entertainment from Online, for those of us stuck indoors:for the url, you put [url+(url)] instead of
https://twitter.com/sparkysheep/status/1238755182692859904 (https://twitter.com/sparkysheep/status/1238755182692859904)
https://twitter.com/trashnightvideo (https://twitter.com/trashnightvideo)+ to = expected mistake considering close proximity to each other on touchscreens
Ok, I'm going to need an explanation on what this means. I might just be tired (or a good many other things), but the first half of that sentence confuses me.
Code: [Select]
[url=(url)] thus making the thing you intended not a linkYou appear to have fixed it already, which is good
Post by: Frumple on March 18, 2020, 10:55:16 pm
Trying to stay positive but shit continues to get incrementally spookier.If it makes you feel any better, so far I don't think I've seen (or heard) anything particularly out of line for an incoming major hurricane. It's just something of a difference in scale, 'cause it's, like... sequential major hurricanes, across all countries, just with less direct infrastructure damage. Or something. Still, disaster prep for, y'know, a disaster that might shut things down for a while. Lot of it hasn't felt particularly spooky to me, just kind of an understanding nod towards hatch battening.
... now, some of the stuff I've been hearing about on the hospital prep side of things, bit more unsettling. They seem to be expecting and prepping for something worse than a high cat hurricane so far as casualties and whatnot goes. But average people junk's just been kinda' standard territory after going through as many hurricanes as I have. Comforting definitely isn't the right word for it, but it's somewhere adjacent to it and disaster panic. A familiar sort of feeling, like nostalgia except you wish you could take it out behind the shed and old yeller its ass instead of ever dealing with it again, ah ha ha.
Post by: Bumber on March 18, 2020, 11:09:56 pm
The picture heading that, I guess, has little white antibodies swarming the virus.
They look like toiletpaper.
That's to clean the Bay12 shitposts out of their blood after successful immunization.
Can't have monkeys getting ideas about magma and such.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 04:32:21 am
More entertainment from Online, for those of us stuck indoors:I made a typo posting a link
https://twitter.com/sparkysheep/status/1238755182692859904 (https://twitter.com/sparkysheep/status/1238755182692859904)
https://twitter.com/trashnightvideo (https://twitter.com/trashnightvideo)+ to = expected mistake considering close proximity to each other on touchscreens
Ok, I'm going to need an explanation on what this means. I might just be tired (or a good many other things), but the first half of that sentence confuses me.
Post by: Max™ on March 19, 2020, 05:06:49 am
Oh shit... what do the hoarders know that we don't understand yet?Finally, some good news
Monkeys develop protective antibodies to SARS-COV2 (https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/monkeys-develop-protective-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2-67281?utm_content=122140724&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&hss_channel=fbp-102639353225134&fbclid=IwAR1yfc_ULC___HUOJ3X_6hlcbLqPceGYNPf_wJv6P3IyPzWTiWS0iu1-8zs)
If we manage to survive this first strike we might get some herd immunity out of it.
The picture heading that, I guess, has little white antibodies swarming the virus.
They look like toiletpaper.
Is the trick not obtaining tp, but instead incorporating it into your immune system?
Should we be wrapping tp around our lymph nodes like tissue mummies and eating it off like a huge lizard consuming a shed?
I NEED ANSWERS NOW FOLKS, TIME IS CRITICAL HERE, I DON'T WANT TO STARTING EATING THIS TOILET PAPER AFTER I'VE BEEN SITTING ON IT OR AROUND THE DOG!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 06:02:47 am
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 06:34:28 am
I honestly dont know to what extent hoarders are wrong. I mean western goverments lied about everything. Do we really believe them qhen they say there won't be rationing?Yes, because it is not black death "50% of population dead" epidemic. And "western goverments lied about everything" is untrue, there was some incompetence but they did far less lying than Chinese gov. The worst case scenario is 1% death ratio, and that assumes that we will do absolutely nothing to prevent epidemic.
"goverments lied about everything" is an useless hyperbole.
To be more strict: I am not expecting rationing of consumer products harming sane people. There may be some rationing to prevent hoarding, at limits unreachable by anyone acting normally.
I am expecting rationing of medical supplies - for example ventilators at hospitals may be not sufficient for all, but maybe it will be averted by shutdowns.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 07:02:38 am
Quote
Yes, because it is not black death "50% of population dead" epidemic.No, but it is a "100% of the population inside" lockdown. Of whole countries.
To what extent I believe the goverment can guarantee regular food supply chains? Eh... 🤔
Quote
And "western goverments lied about everything" is untrue, there was some incompetence but they did far less lying than Chinese govLook dude, I dont know where you are and what your goverment is doing. But here the goverment's level of lying was bad to begin with and in the last two weeks has reached orwellian levels. Anyone checking the numbers or talking with people on the frontline can see as much
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 07:09:10 am
I keep expecting to wake up from all this 😰
Post by: Reelya on March 19, 2020, 07:14:36 am
QuoteAnd "western goverments lied about everything" is untrue, there was some incompetence but they did far less lying than Chinese govLook dude, I dont know where you are and what your goverment is doing. But here the goverment's level of lying was bad to begin with and in the last two weeks has reached orwellian levels. Anyone checking the numbers or talking with people on the frontline can see as much
Additionally, people talk about "the Chinese" as if 1.5 billion people are a monolithic entity.
A lot of the lying in China is actually at the regional government level, and the main target of their lying is the central government "no no everything's fine here, Control, nothing to see here!" Basically because they know they can be replaced if things go pear-shaped so there's an incentive for regional heads to withhold the scale of problems from the central authorities. Mostly this works in their favor, as most problems can be swept under the carpet in this manner. It backfired bigtime with this virus because the problem is one you can't hide, and it spreads.
So, the issue isn't that China is lying to the outside world per se. They couldn't give a shit what anyone outside China thinks. The problem is that you have institutions in China which actively lie to each other. So, the institutional culture is such that they withhold information from each other and try and solve problems locally so that they don't lose face/authority.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 07:20:48 am
SnipMakes sense TBH. I think given the scale of China regarding the Chinese goverment on the same lines as another goverment outside China is probably missing nuances. I surmise given the size of the country it probably works in many ways as one of our supranational entities do... except with more control over what happens underneath
Post by: Reelya on March 19, 2020, 07:50:12 am
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 07:57:26 am
"100% of the population inside" can you list countries that are allowing only remote work?QuoteYes, because it is not black death "50% of population dead" epidemic.No, but it is a "100% of the population inside" lockdown. Of whole countries.
To what extent I believe the goverment can guarantee regular food supply chains? Eh... 🤔
OK, what is your country? Poland had some standard "we are well prepared" claims by government that were opinions/lies, some usual chaos/incompetence. But no lies reaching orwellian levels.QuoteAnd "western goverments lied about everything" is untrue, there was some incompetence but they did far less lying than Chinese govLook dude, I dont know where you are and what your goverment is doing. But here the goverment's level of lying was bad to begin with and in the last two weeks has reached orwellian levels. Anyone checking the numbers or talking with people on the frontline can see as much
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 08:05:23 am
t give a shit what anyone outside China thinks. The problem is that you have institutions in China which actively lie to each other. So, the institutional culture is such that they withhold information from each other and try and solve problems locally so that they don't lose face/authority.I am mostly irritated by China government because it is doing unusually horrible things (to people living there). It has potential to be more influential on the world and badly affect others. It is now digging out of hole created by opium colonization, Japanese invasion, Mao stupidity, communism damage and many other things.
I was not really expecting pandemic (experts were aware about risks caused by China) but I feel fully justified in being powerlessly irritated at China gov. Their terrible government structure and live animal markets are responsible for starting this mess.
EDIT: sorry, misspost (it seems that there is no way to delete)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 19, 2020, 08:51:15 am
Could be anything...
But still got me spooked
Post by: Frumple on March 19, 2020, 09:04:25 am
I was not really expecting pandemic (experts were aware about risks caused by China) but I feel fully justified in being powerlessly irritated at China gov. Their terrible government structure and live animal markets are responsible for starting this mess.They... really aren't responsible for that. Cross-species pandemics like this can arise basically anywhere human to animal contact occurs, which is more or less everywhere; china's behaviors may increase the chance somewhat, but the fact their population is goddamn huge is the primary reason shit seems more likely to hit a fan there.
EDIT: sorry, misspost (it seems that there is no way to delete)
So far as response and mitigation efforts go, they've also been one of like maybe three countries worldwide that haven't been entirely fucking everything up, alongside south korea and maybe singapore. It hasn't been 100% perfect by any means, but china's legit been doing more than just about any other country on the planet to reduce and contain the spread of the virus. You could say that that's more a condemnation of everyone else than it is praise for china and the few others that have taken legitimately meaningful effects to contain the crow plague (and I'd agree with you if you did), but they're not really to blame for happening to have lost the dice roll on viral mutation and then genuinely trying to deal with the situation once it became obvious what was going on.
Post by: scriver on March 19, 2020, 09:08:47 am
Derision is not aimed at you, Tamer. I understand that it's frightening to see. I just remembered the above and it got me all in a tissy again. Shameful goddamn media work.
Post by: Reelya on March 19, 2020, 09:12:23 am
First up they were going on about the "China secretly cremated millions of bodies" conspiracy theory, then later they were downplaying what the disease would mean if it got loose here, saying we can handle it fine and it's just flu.
Some people have an amazing ability to compartmentalize their beliefs in ways that suit their preconceptions:
Plague in China? must be bad, millions dead.
Plague here? impossible, can't happen.
Post by: McTraveller on March 19, 2020, 09:25:01 am
For instance, it would be helpful to show the daily change in plain old flu "active cases / serious cases / deaths" along with the Covid ones. Side-by-side, both in absolute and relative plots, would show both how Flu does impact a lot of people but also how Covid is much more severe in terms of rate of cases. I think? I mean holy crap look at the numbers for Oct-March for the flu in JUST the US: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm.
Does anyone have a link to side-by-side time series?
More statistics curiosities - I'm still trying to figure out why the US numbers for recovery are so low - people have been 'active' for more than 3 weeks here - what is the time required to declare 'recovered'? I mean yesterday's stats on Worldometer said that the US had zero new recoveries.
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 09:31:02 am
I was not really expecting pandemic (experts were aware about risks caused by China) but I feel fully justified in being powerlessly irritated at China gov. Their terrible government structure and live animal markets are responsible for starting this mess.They... really aren't responsible for that. Cross-species pandemics like this can arise basically anywhere human to animal contact occurs, which is more or less everywhere; china's behaviors may increase the chance somewhat, but the fact their population is goddamn huge is the primary reason shit seems more likely to hit a fan there.
EDIT: sorry, misspost (it seems that there is no way to delete)
https://www.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/fl1aec/from_my_college_microbiology_textbook_c2009_no/
"the animal reservoir and live animal markets in China are still present allowing animal-to-human transfer to once again happen" - excerpt from textbook about coronaviruses.
"can arise basically anywhere human to animal contact occurs, which is more or less everywhere" - live animal markets, especially ones with wild animals are quite rare in Europe. I have never seen one in my entire life. And I like hiking with regular visits to remove, rural and less developed regions.
Selling wild animal for human consumption is also fairly rare.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Later response was quite good, it seems unlikely that we will reach comparable effectiveness. But initial response - censorship, attacking doctor who found new disease, coverup attempt... No country in Europe was/is hunting down doctors and force them to lie that illness is not existing, none is censoring info about such things. Huge initial delay was caused by maliciousness of Chinese system and their coverups.
So far as response and mitigation efforts go, they've also been one of like maybe three countries worldwide that haven't been entirely fucking everything up, alongside south korea and maybe singapore. It hasn't been 100% perfect by any means, but china's legit been doing more than just about any other country on the planet to reduce and contain the spread of the virus. You could say that that's more a condemnation of everyone else than it is praise for china and the few others that have taken legitimately meaningful effects to contain the crow plague (and I'd agree with you if you did), but they're not really to blame for happening to have lost the dice roll on viral mutation and then genuinely trying to deal with the situation once it became obvious what was going on.
First up they were going on about the "China secretly cremated millions of bodies" conspiracy theory, then later they were downplaying what the disease would mean if it got loose here, saying we can handle it fine and it's just flu.Yeah, some people are amazingly stupid. WTF, how you hide deaths of millions and secretly cremate them? This is stupidity reaches quater of stupidity of chemtrails.
Some people have an amazing ability to compartmentalize their beliefs in ways that suit their preconceptions:
Plague in China? must be bad, millions dead.
Plague here? impossible, can't happen.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 19, 2020, 09:33:50 am
All I'm saying is Taiwan numbah one!
Post by: scriver on March 19, 2020, 09:37:48 am
Post by: Max™ on March 19, 2020, 09:38:57 am
Frumple: Is crow plague a weird translation from somewhere else that I'm missing seeing any other references to or a personal preference thing?
COVID-19 isn't vague or difficult to type, and most importantly it's a unique and non-prejudicially loaded identifier for something which I still recall being tied to pangolins which ended up getting eaten because of stupid goddamn folk bullshit providing a stable market for poachers to supply, and fuck every goddamn one of them and all the people who encourage/engage in all that vile nonsense about rhino horn dick magic or pangolin scale longevity cuntery.
Calling it crow plague makes it sound like something spread by contact or consumption of crows to someone here in the US, no clue if there is some loaded trap bullshit like the big orange cuntrag calling it china virus to get a reaction and distract from his incompetence.
An analogy would be if the officials in Florida screwed something up we wouldn't immediately jump to thinking it was a monolithic failing of the federal American government.Uh, no, when Florida screwed the pooch in 2000 and the supreme court ended the recount everyone here in the states was far more pissed off at the federal side of things and the failure of the supposedly impartial judicial branch, though that is in large part because nobody expected Florida to be sane, orderly, or responsible back then, nor did we expect them to do so in 2016.
Maybe use a better example, Florida having any say on any decisions which have any impact on any other states is a massive failing of the federal government for not enforcing more control over a state mainly known for one of the highest concentrations of our worst decision makers: old people choose in huge numbers to migrate down there so they can live on a big floppy dong jutting out into the path of too fucking many hurricanes and rub elbows with angeldust/bath salt smoking alligator wrestling cannibals.
While circumcising babies is monstrous, snipping florida off would have been the correct decision at a federal level.
Interestingly enough, all of the efforts which are ongoing and may end up mitigating the worst outcomes from this pandemic here were all initiated at the state, county, or city levels, because the top level response has only just now barely reached the level that would have made a difference two months ago.
So far we're probably going to hit 10k confirmed cases today, and I'm gonna call the current 150 deaths count optimistic to say the least, but a couple more days and we'll get a better look at just how fucked that's gonna end up looking probably.
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 09:46:27 am
tied to pangolins which ended up getting eaten because of stupid goddamn folk bullshit providing a stable market for poachers to supply, and fuck every goddamn one of them and all the people who encourage/engage in all that vile nonsense about rhino horn dick magic or pangolin scale longevity cuntery.+1
An analogy would be if the officials in Florida screwed something up we wouldn't immediately jump to thinking it was a monolithic failing of the federal American government.Censorship is implemented, encouraged and enforced by highest level of government. It is not like it was introduced by local government. This is a good example how censorship caused not merely intellectual/moral issues but allowed it to escalate into global problem, with thousands dead.
----
On topic of lies: "Why Telling People They Don’t Need Masks Backfired. And notice the wording! It’s not newsworthy that the government deceived us, it’s newsworthy that the deception didn’t achieve its intended goal." from https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/19/coronalinks-3-19-20/ linking to https://archive.is/iNBGr ( https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html )
Post by: Reelya on March 19, 2020, 09:47:17 am
Frumple: Is crow plague a weird translation from somewhere else that I'm missing seeing any other references to or a personal preference thing?
It's a play on words. Family Corvidae includes the crows.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 19, 2020, 09:47:56 am
Frumple: Is crow plague a weird translation from somewhere else that I'm missing seeing any other references to or a personal preference thing?Think CORVID-19 instead of COVID-19
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 09:52:08 am
Post by: Max™ on March 19, 2020, 09:54:22 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 09:56:13 am
McTraveller: In order to know how many recovered we would need to have known how many had it in the first place, and literally only started rolling out tests like a week ago.I think we'll never really know. The more info that comes out the more likely it is that we have anything from 5 to 10 to who knows how many asymptomatic carriers for every case we see.
I've heard people suggest to use the korean data and extrapolate from the dead to get a better guesstimate about the number of infected in your country and the level of silent infection. They're probably right. Following that criteria Spain probably has like 100.000, Italy 500.000.
Thats why we need the lockdown. Otherwise it spreads eve faster, esp by morons who refuse to stay in and collapses your healthcare even faster
Post by: martinuzz on March 19, 2020, 09:58:39 am
Lots of first timers too, who never wanted a gun are now buying them even.
Gun shop owners see sales 3 times as high as on black friday. Ammo shelves are emptying.
Post by: Iduno on March 19, 2020, 10:05:32 am
for the url, you put [url+(url)] instead ofCode: [Select][url=(url)]thus making the thing you intended not a link
Ah, thank you for the explanation.
The picture heading that, I guess, has little white antibodies swarming the virus.Oh shit... what do the hoarders know that we don't understand yet?
They look like toiletpaper.
Is the trick not obtaining tp, but instead incorporating it into your immune system?
Should we be wrapping tp around our lymph nodes like tissue mummies and eating it off like a huge lizard consuming a shed?
I NEED ANSWERS NOW FOLKS, TIME IS CRITICAL HERE, I DON'T WANT TO STARTING EATING THIS TOILET PAPER AFTER I'VE BEEN SITTING ON IT OR AROUND THE DOG!
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 10:06:44 am
Ammo shelves are emptying.And in Poland after brief and localized panic buying everything is normal. At least in my city.
BTW, "ammo shelves" sounds to be unbelievably weird.
Post by: TD1 on March 19, 2020, 10:16:35 am
I had a conversation with the till-person. And appreciated it.
The world is nuts.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 19, 2020, 10:20:29 am
Gun shop owners see sales 3 times as high as on black friday. Ammo shelves are emptying.
All countries have strange cultural traditions that may seem unhealthy from a distance. For the USA it's widespread gun ownership, and very high gun-related dead counts, for other countries it is eating pangolins. Both may be difficult to change, but we can hope people will try.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 19, 2020, 10:21:49 am
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Post by: Akura on March 19, 2020, 11:15:48 am
On the other hand, my job might be shutting down completely due to the lack of people willing to come in, while the company really wants to keep us open. That said, it's probable that store can operate for a few days or weeks without the department I work in. I'll know more tomorrow.
Post by: TD1 on March 19, 2020, 11:18:39 am
Crazy interpretation of events, mind.
Post by: McTraveller on March 19, 2020, 11:37:54 am
Different people have different world views, that is sure.
Post by: Iduno on March 19, 2020, 12:21:36 pm
Gun shop owners see sales 3 times as high as on black friday. Ammo shelves are emptying.
All countries have strange cultural traditions that may seem unhealthy from a distance. For the USA it's widespread gun ownership, and very high gun-related dead counts, for other countries it is eating pangolins. Both may be difficult to change, but we can hope people will try.
"...from my cold, dead hands. Probably next week, based on my decision-making abilities and those of the people around me."
Post by: martinuzz on March 19, 2020, 12:33:14 pm
Wednesday he fainted during a debate in parliament, albeit only for a few seconds.
He blamed it on tiredness and lack of sleep and said he'd be fine.
But now he resigned after all. It is unknown why.
Perhaps he had a brain aneurism, or maybe going without sleep for 3 weeks since the corona shit hit the fan has given him a burnout.
EDIT: okay, he resigned because of exhaustion, he needs to rest for a few weeks.
Post by: coalboat on March 19, 2020, 12:43:41 pm
for other countries it is eating pangolins.
Actually the equivalence is not eating bushmeat, but is censoring information. The Chinese government believes that non-freedom of speech is an integral part of the nation, as much as The US government does gun ownership.
Post by: Frumple on March 19, 2020, 01:16:29 pm
Ah, mea culpa on assuming it was probably some obscure racial jab then, we get kinda overloaded with it here so rather than jump to corvid from coronavirus disease 2019 I'm like "wtf, is this some shit where people from one arbitrary part of the world said they were hawks and their chosen 'other' group from an arbitrarily nearby but slightly different part of the world were crows" instantly.Yeah, it's literally just a corruption of covid into corvid which = crows. It's not exactly fair to crows, like, at all, but it's also the snappiest designation for the disease I've seen so far, involves less non-words than covid (and is less than a pain in the ass to type on a tablet than covid-19 or CoV-SARS-2 or whatever the hell it is), and has less genocide flavor than boomer remover or stuff in that direction. Crow plague rolls off the tongue well, and that's about all that's behind that.
Unless some jackasses somewhere have coopted it to mean something shitty, I guess. Until I hear word of otherwise I'm sticking with crow plague mostly 'cause I like typing it best, and little pleasures are how you weather disasters relatively sane.
Post by: nenjin on March 19, 2020, 01:25:51 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 19, 2020, 01:30:45 pm
They were fight over bottled water
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 01:43:04 pm
She also thinks this pandemic will "wipe out everybody"Dammit, why people have two state mind? "nothing happening" or "we will all die". The same as with global warming, both are completely idiotic.
Post by: scriver on March 19, 2020, 01:52:00 pm
Ah, mea culpa on assuming it was probably some obscure racial jab then, we get kinda overloaded with it here so rather than jump to corvid from coronavirus disease 2019 I'm like "wtf, is this some shit where people from one arbitrary part of the world said they were hawks and their chosen 'other' group from an arbitrarily nearby but slightly different part of the world were crows" instantly.Yeah, it's literally just a corruption of covid into corvid which = crows. It's not exactly fair to crows, like, at all, but it's also the snappiest designation for the disease I've seen so far, involves less non-words than covid (and is less than a pain in the ass to type on a tablet than covid-19 or CoV-SARS-2 or whatever the hell it is), and has less genocide flavor than boomer remover or stuff in that direction. Crow plague rolls off the tongue well, and that's about all that's behind that.
Raven Flu is better
Post by: McTraveller on March 19, 2020, 02:51:03 pm
Raven Flu is better"Nevermore"
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 02:59:23 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Kagus on March 19, 2020, 03:04:03 pm
Post by: Greiger on March 19, 2020, 03:14:47 pm
I guess I'm unemployed now, yay?
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 19, 2020, 03:21:10 pm
Mom is self quarantining after her doctor told her to. Since I partially take care of her and she can't quarantine if I'm not. I called into work and told my boss I had to quarantine, boss refused to allow it. I responded by taking one last trip out of the house to hand over my store keys and uniform.your boss is an ass
I guess I'm unemployed now, yay?
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 19, 2020, 03:24:11 pm
Yeah, that's a case of your boss being an ass. Make sure that you can get confirmation that you're fired, so you can collect assistance as needed.Mom is self quarantining after her doctor told her to. Since I partially take care of her and she can't quarantine if I'm not. I called into work and told my boss I had to quarantine, boss refused to allow it. I responded by taking one last trip out of the house to hand over my store keys and uniform.your boss is an ass
I guess I'm unemployed now, yay?
Post by: Greiger on March 19, 2020, 03:31:39 pm
Its a shame after all that time working there and going beyond what was required multiple times for a crappy 9.25 an hour, taking maybe 2 days off for the entire 3 years I worked, I have a legitimate reason to take a few weeks off and I'm told flat out 'no' and that I'm being selfish for even suggesting it. Fuck corporate america.
EDIT: I imagine turning my keys in qualifies as quitting, not being fired. Not an expert on such things though.
Post by: martinuzz on March 19, 2020, 03:32:54 pm
Spread the story amongst those regulars who know you by name, make him lose customers.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 19, 2020, 03:34:33 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 19, 2020, 03:35:08 pm
Your boss is a douchebag.do this, losing profits is the only way your boss will learn
Spread the story amongst those regulars who know you by name, make him lose customers.
PPE:
@Grieger - go to the local news station. :3and this
Post by: Greiger on March 19, 2020, 03:47:56 pm
As for the customers I have no way to contact them without physically going to their homes to talk to them (I delivered groceries to a few of them) and that would be counter to the quarantine. Most of them live right by the store as well, even if I knew they would be willing, I would not feel right depriving them of their most convenient dollar general out of some favor to me.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 19, 2020, 03:50:48 pm
Quite a few of the longer term employees told me during the last manager switchover that if I leave they plan to as well. Don't know if they actually will, since it was largely because everyone hated the new management. One of them is in almost the exact same situation I am, staying with a mother who is recovering from lung cancer.makes sense. I wish you well
As for the customers I have no way to contact them without physically going to their homes to talk to them (I delivered groceries to a few of them) and that would be counter to the quarantine. Most of them live right by the store as well, even if I knew they would be willing, I would not feel right depriving them of their most convenient dollar general out of some favor to me.
Post by: martinuzz on March 19, 2020, 03:51:02 pm
And open your own dollar general store, you already have people who will likely want to work for you, and people who will rather buy from you :)
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 19, 2020, 04:02:08 pm
I imagine dealing with the unemployment system right now is going to be hellish (there's already been some reporting on it), so fingers crossed.
Dollar amount uncertain, but latest rumors were two ~$1000 payments (one this month, one... later) to those earning under $75k.
Senate may be passing it before the end of the week, House presumably passing it next week, then becoming law shortly thereafter. Unsure how long that means it'd actually take for people to start getting relief funds, though.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 04:18:16 pm
Italy is supposed to FINALLY reach the peak early next week. I really really hope they do. Sweet bus, this is the most awful thing I've ever lived through.
Meanwhile Ireland has matched for the last 4 days the progression of the number of cases in Spain. I really hope they do a mass lockdown soon because otherwise things are going to get very ugly. Ireland only has 300 ICU beds :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(
Quote from: Th4DwArfY1
snipTry to avoid people as much as you can. I know this isolation is hard as hell but the way I hear it the numbers per day in Northern Ireland are just as bad or worse. Stay safe.
Post by: ggamer on March 19, 2020, 04:26:07 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 19, 2020, 04:36:24 pm
Came in to chime in libraries seem to be closing to the public en masse now stateside -- came in to work today after some time off for doctor-y stuff to find out our doors are closed and will be for at least two weeks, poking around doing normal work stuff (ransacking other libraries MARC records) shows bunches of other ones are too, now, mostly having started Monday and planning on staying shut for 1-2 weeks to start.
No one fired or hours lost or anything (benefits of being public service, I guess) so far where I'm at, but it's a thing.
It's probably worth noting as a PSA that if folks are interested, most libraries have online services of one sort or another (E-books, etc.), and many are still retaining staff for covering patron calls and inquiries and whatnot, so if you want a distraction or whatever, that might be a possible venue. Helps if you already got a card but secret librarian cabal chatter (okay, it's the Koha mailing list but whatev') suggests some places are trying to figure out a process for folks that don't, too.
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 06:02:26 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 19, 2020, 06:05:50 pm
Mom is self quarantining after her doctor told her to. Since I partially take care of her and she can't quarantine if I'm not. I called into work and told my boss I had to quarantine, boss refused to allow it. I responded by taking one last trip out of the house to hand over my store keys and uniform.
I guess I'm unemployed now, yay?
Also, since you partially take care of her, you may also be affected. He's asking you to intentionally risk infecting people.
At least now you have time to stand/sit outside yelling at people about what happened. I'm sure customers would be interesting in finding out the store wants them to get infected.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 19, 2020, 06:08:30 pm
Man, good luck folks. Hope y'all come out okay.
Came in to chime in libraries seem to be closing to the public en masse now stateside -- came in to work today after some time off for doctor-y stuff to find out our doors are closed and will be for at least two weeks, poking around doing normal work stuff (ransacking other libraries MARC records) shows bunches of other ones are too, now, mostly having started Monday and planning on staying shut for 1-2 weeks to start.
No one fired or hours lost or anything (benefits of being public service, I guess) so far where I'm at, but it's a thing.
It's probably worth noting as a PSA that if folks are interested, most libraries have online services of one sort or another (E-books, etc.), and many are still retaining staff for covering patron calls and inquiries and whatnot, so if you want a distraction or whatever, that might be a possible venue. Helps if you already got a card but secret librarian cabal chatter (okay, it's the Koha mailing list but whatev') suggests some places are trying to figure out a process for folks that don't, too.
Library where I live is closed now, but they will start a book delivery service. You tell them which book you enjoyed and they will drop you a book in that category in the mailbox. Keeps their employees employed, and I'm looking forward to what whatever I'll receive, plenty of time to read now..
Post by: nenjin on March 19, 2020, 06:17:54 pm
Still, when a couple got up to leave the Cancer Center, the older gentleman was wearing a face mask and coughing a little, and the nursing staff immediately called someone over to wipe down the entire chair he'd been sitting in. Who knows, maybe they did it for mine too. And yes, I wore the gloves. I thought about asking for a mask but it didn't take even 3 minutes for me to hear the nurses being incredulous about patients and visitors asking for masks when they're already short handed....so I kept my mouth firmly shut. For multiple reasons. >.>
We're up to 24 confirmed cases in Nebraska. My brother reports 55 in Iowa.
Post by: Teneb on March 19, 2020, 06:28:07 pm
Some computer models that are available on the web predict Spanish peak around mid April.Could you share the link to it?
Anyway, news from the southern front:
The metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has been completely locked down. Only folks who can get in or out are either truckers transporting stuff or people from the government. The state's second death was in my home city.
Most of the cases are in the Southeastern Region, though there are cases in all other Regions as well (FYI, there are five: North, Northeast, Centre-West, Southeast, South).
Federal government has declared a nationwide emergency state, which is about damn time. Simultaneously, everyone except the most die-hard fascists (and even some of them) are turning against Bolsonaro for his reaction to the pandemic. Hell, there was a... pronouncement(?) where he repeatedly failed to put on his mask like a regular person. He also kept taking it off to speak and at one time put it over his own damn eyes. So now not only has the media turned on him like they did with Dilma, not only is the population beating pans on their windows and shouting for his resignation, but the first impeachment request has been filed. Government will give people money to stay at home but... it's 200 fucking Reais. That's nothing. Minimum wage is R$998, and the exchange rate got to US$1 = R$5 thanks to the moronic economic policy of Bozo's Fash Train.
I'm afraid the death toll here will be huge. Lots of folks ain't taking this seriously and the government had to forbid anyone from going to the beach for any reason whatsoever because... beaches were packed and people deliberately ignored the firemen telling them to please leave. Also shopping malls got the same treatment because the owners of those also ignored suggestions to shut down.
As if that wasn't enough, the Favelas will be hit hard when it gets to the poor en masse. Not only do they have too much people for healthcare to handle, not only are they unable to just stop working because otherwise they'll starve but... well, they can't afford fucking soap. And one of Rio's biggest ones, Complexo do Alemão, is without any fucking water.
I myself am holed up at home, since I was already unemployed thanks to having just graduated, and am lucky enough to be middle-class.
Healthcare providers here tried to weasel out of paying for tests, but got sense beaten unto them. Not all's good news though: one healthcare provider, the one my 89-year-old grandmother is on has declared that it will no longer cover ANYTHING in my home city. In short, if she catches it she'll die. She may be an abusive bastard, but I'd rather she not go that way.
EDIT: We just passed 600 confirmed infections (though keep in mind that there's a lot less testing than there should be) and 6 deaths nation-wide.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 06:51:45 pm
Do we have confirmed info what actually is in the convoy? I found claims about moving coffins, but it is only on Russian founded sites (they may be right this time, but I prefer to check).Came on the news today. It's coffins. They're burning them. And no they are not empty
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-army-transport-coffins-bergamo-morgue-crisis-video-2020-3
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-bergamo-crematorium-overwhelmed-as-italys-death-toll-overtakes-china-tn6px20vh
You seem very keen on believing this is less than it is. I... might be mistaken but I think you're in denial. I dont mean this in an aggressive way. I mean this because I was in denial too before. But it's real. It's happening. Thousands of people will die. I really hope you don't have to see how real it is for yourself. The best way to prevent this is to try to persuade you and all around you of how real this is.
I really don't mean any of this in a bad way. I'm in the middle of a warzone and I dont wish this on anyone. And our goverments are reacting really slow.
https://www.imm.upv.es/covid-19/Some computer models that are available on the web predict Spanish peak around mid April.Could you share the link to it?
Mind you its only for Spain and it has been kind of driven off rails by several testing criteria changes (I think goverments are having a test shortage too, so at times they test people with a wider criteria, some other times they stick to severe cases)
Quote
Anyway, news from the southern front:It's starting. I'm sorry Teneb. ☹
The metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro has been completely locked down. Only folks who can get in or out are either truckers transporting stuff or people from the government. The state's second death was in my home city.
Most of the cases are in the Southeastern Region, though there are cases in all other Regions as well (FYI, there are five: North, Northeast, Centre-West, Southeast, South).
Federal government has declared a nationwide emergency state, which is about damn time. Simultaneously, everyone except the most die-hard fascists (and even some of them) are turning against Bolsonaro for his reaction to the pandemic. Hell, there was a... pronouncement(?) where he repeatedly failed to put on his mask like a regular person. He also kept taking it off to speak and at one time put it over his own damn eyes. So now not only has the media turned on him like they did with Dilma, not only is the population beating pans on their windows and shouting for his resignation, but the first impeachment request has been filed. Government will give people money to stay at home but... it's 200 fucking Reais. That's nothing. Minimum wage is R$998, and the exchange rate got to US$1 = R$5 thanks to the moronic economic policy of Bozo's Fash Train.
I'm afraid the death toll here will be huge. Lots of folks ain't taking this seriously and the government had to forbid anyone from going to the beach for any reason whatsoever because... beaches were packed and people deliberately ignored the firemen telling them to please leave. Also shopping malls got the same treatment because the owners of those also ignored suggestions to shut down.
As if that wasn't enough, the Favelas will be hit hard when it gets to the poor en masse. Not only do they have too much people for healthcare to handle, not only are they unable to just stop working because otherwise they'll starve but... well, they can't afford fucking soap. And one of Rio's biggest ones, Complexo do Alemão, is without any fucking water.
I myself am holed up at home, since I was already unemployed thanks to having just graduated, and am lucky enough to be middle-class.
Healthcare providers here tried to weasel out of paying for tests, but got sense beaten unto them. Not all's good news though: one healthcare provider, the one my 89-year-old grandmother is on has declared that it will no longer cover ANYTHING in my home city. In short, if she catches it she'll die. She may be an abusive bastard, but I'd rather she not go that way.
EDIT: We just passed 600 confirmed infections (though keep in mind that there's a lot less testing than there should be) and 6 deaths nation-wide.
Take care of yourself. Stay in as much as possible. Try to get a mask and gloves
On the personal side of things: my aunt insisted on visiting 5-6 days ago. My parents opened the door for her (this was bsfore rhe enforced lockdown. We had a quarrel over it anyway). The next day she had a sore throat and a mild temp of 37.2. Which stopped today.
-‐-------
But... I've had a slightly itchy throat today. Could almost mistake it for being just a bit thirsty. And I took my temp and I've 37°. I don't feel dysthermic though. In fact I feel fine otherwise.
This could be covid, could be something else, or could be nothing.
I expect this will happen several times over the coming weeks
Post by: Iduno on March 19, 2020, 07:06:51 pm
Federal government has declared a nationwide emergency state, which is about damn time. Simultaneously, everyone except the most die-hard fascists (and even some of them) are turning against Bolsonaro for his reaction to the pandemic. Hell, there was a... pronouncement(?) where he repeatedly failed to put on his mask like a regular person. He also kept taking it off to speak and at one time put it over his own damn eyes. So now not only has the media turned on him like they did with Dilma, not only is the population beating pans on their windows and shouting for his resignation, but the first impeachment request has been filed. Government will give people money to stay at home but... it's 200 fucking Reais. That's nothing. Minimum wage is R$998, and the exchange rate got to US$1 = R$5 thanks to the moronic economic policy of Bozo's Fash Train.
I'm afraid the death toll here will be huge. Lots of folks ain't taking this seriously and the government had to forbid anyone from going to the beach for any reason whatsoever because... beaches were packed and people deliberately ignored the firemen telling them to please leave. Also shopping malls got the same treatment because the owners of those also ignored suggestions to shut down.
As if that wasn't enough, the Favelas will be hit hard when it gets to the poor en masse. Not only do they have too much people for healthcare to handle, not only are they unable to just stop working because otherwise they'll starve but... well, they can't afford fucking soap. And one of Rio's biggest ones, Complexo do Alemão, is without any fucking water.
I myself am holed up at home, since I was already unemployed thanks to having just graduated, and am lucky enough to be middle-class.
Healthcare providers here tried to weasel out of paying for tests, but got sense beaten unto them. Not all's good news though: one healthcare provider, the one my 89-year-old grandmother is on has declared that it will no longer cover ANYTHING in my home city. In short, if she catches it she'll die. She may be an abusive bastard, but I'd rather she not go that way.
EDIT: We just passed 600 confirmed infections (though keep in mind that there's a lot less testing than there should be) and 6 deaths nation-wide.
That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.
Post by: Teneb on March 19, 2020, 07:16:43 pm
Try to get a mask and glovesUtterly impossible, they're sold out.
Post by: mko on March 19, 2020, 07:24:45 pm
You seem very keen on believing this is less than it is. I... might be mistaken but I think you're in denial. I dont mean this in an aggressive way. I mean this because I was in denial too before. But it's real. It's happening. Thousands of people will die. I really hope you don't have to see how real it is for yourself. The best way to prevent this is to try to persuade you and all around you of how real this is.Nope, not in denial. Currently everything indicates that we will have the worst pandemic since 1918, with millions dead. I am staying at home, not visiting others and going through my buffer of food to avoid shopping.
I really don't mean any of this in a bad way. I'm in the middle of a warzone and I dont wish this on anyone. And our goverments are reacting really slow.
There is about 50% chance that either my grandmother or grandfather will die, about 1% chance that my father will die.
It also made me far more scared about usual flu, especially as I get older. My father since January has a dedicated Twitter account about Covid.
I hope that we will not get Italy-level bad, but for now in the entire Poland only 4 000 tests were made - 115/million ( https://covid19map.tech/ ). To compare - USA is at 64/million, China at 3 759/million, Italy at 1 809/million. It is not inspiring confidence.
Damm. I wanted to check before forwarding. Thanks for links! They are moving 61 coffins, I expected far more packed trucks.Do we have confirmed info what actually is in the convoy? I found claims about moving coffins, but it is only on Russian founded sites (they may be right this time, but I prefer to check).Came on the news today. It's coffins. They're burning them. And no they are not empty
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-italy-army-transport-coffins-bergamo-morgue-crisis-video-2020-3
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-bergamo-crematorium-overwhelmed-as-italys-death-toll-overtakes-china-tn6px20vh
-----------
BTW, when Italian hospitals started collapsing? Poland is about 22 days delayed (larger delay due to earlier quarantines, earlier collapse due to lower hospital capacity).
Post by: Max™ on March 19, 2020, 07:56:17 pm
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 19, 2020, 08:58:47 pm
Do we have confirmed info what actually is in the convoy? I found claims about moving coffins, but it is only on Russian founded sites (they may be right this time, but I prefer to check).
It made the national nightly news here in the US (major broadcast networks), so that's a bit more reliable. (Not saying they don't make mistakes, mind.) Their framing was the coffins were being moved because incinerators in the region were overworked disposing of the dead.
Edit: Oops, somehow missed a page of responses before replying.
Well, something potentially more helpful in this space: US Senate Rs released their (initial bid of) bill #3 (https://www.republicanleader.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/CARES%20Act%20Final%20-%20Mar%202020.pdf) on coronavirus. The 'cash to people' is crummy regressive tax rebates, even then it's just a single payment for what may be the only legislation on this for the next couple of months; it tries to make a good portion of the already-weak House language on paid leave even worse; it's got an almost mockingly-bad provision on insurance coverage of testing (basically they can't overly-gouge you, but that's it).
It's a crummy bill. But at least negotiations continue with other parties, so maybe it will become less bad.
Post by: Max™ on March 19, 2020, 10:34:47 pm
On the other hand if you happened to check the right boxes, defer the right burdens, and wound up a millionaire currently but happened to have less than $75k tax liability in 2018 you get uh... *check's notes* full benefit from their proposal.
Also can somebody hide turdbaby's markers?
(https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200319/391579717a6e65fe1d6f414af1be4d56.jpg)
You just know he's sniffing them when he's not using them to badly edit things in stupid ways.
Post by: MaximumZero on March 19, 2020, 11:13:37 pm
-snip-This is a surprise to you?
That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 11:34:17 pm
That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.
I don't want to go too deep into tinfoil territory, but I've been wondering about this for two days
You probably heard about flattening the curve. One thing you might or might not have realized is that flattening the curve means the epidemic itself lasts longer, so it's more expensive. NOT flattening the curve brings a huge whack to your system, but is shorter.
I also realize that every western nation is doing more or less the same thing: react late, and then scramble to establish a lockdown.
So here's a thought: I'm not saying that they were psychotics thinking about killing thousands of people for the economy. But what if they thought they could game the curves? AKA: Something like, "ok, let's flatten the curve, BUT NOT TOO MUCH, because if we hit *this* sweet spot we can get a shorter curve without it being too long". And afterwards they realized that covid19 cannot be played with and the more containment measures you have in place, the better, hence the panic, the rambling, and the desperation in many healthcare officials these days
Post by: Greiger on March 19, 2020, 11:53:38 pm
Right now though it strongly feels like no-one in charge corporation or government has any fucking idea what they are doing.
Corporations are blindly following policy* and aren't actually using common sense in these situations. Some of them saying they care but when push comes to shove no-one on the ground floor has authority to do anything.
Government leaders I suspect are using what little competence they have to limit tests so that the numbers don't go up and look bad. Can't have confirmed cases if you refuse to test to confirm them. Hell my own fucking president didn't want people to leave a boat because he was unhappy that once they got on the mainland there would be 40 some additional coronavirus cases counting against him. EDIT: I wouldn't be surprised if that patent troll company that recently shut down a coronavirus test kit making facility was actually owned by Donald's company.
Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 19, 2020, 11:57:30 pm
Quote
Right now though it strongly feels like no-one in charge corporation or government has any fucking idea what they are doing.That doesn't really contradict my model. They fucked up bad and now are scrambling to fix it
Quote
Government leaders I suspect are using what little competence they have to limit tests so that the numbers go up and look bad.In the US Trump definitedly did some of those sheanigans.... but I think in the rest of the world the problem is that largely there are not enough tests. The approach in South Korea, Singapore, or Hong Kong of testing everyone and quarantining works if you start early. Since we are all starting late, either because of incompetent inaction, or because of a huge blunder trying to eat cake and keep it, testing everyone is just impossible because there are not enough tests.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 20, 2020, 12:06:51 am
Also good time to remind that UBI is a trick. Automation-based UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion meant to hide the collapse of profit that will follow large-scale automation. Feed them money so they can give it back to us so number go up and we can pretend we're not in a death spiral.
And this is just throwing people a bone because a multi-trillion stimulus package in the middle of a pandemic and impending mass unemployment has flared up class consciousness. If they're want to give you something, it's because they know you could take much, much more.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 20, 2020, 01:08:14 am
Post by: mko on March 20, 2020, 04:04:34 am
Also good time to remind that UBI is a trick. Automation-based UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion meant to hide the collapse of profit that will follow large-scale automation.Part of UBI point (in "many humans will not be employable soon" assumption and justification) is redistribution of what new automation will produce.
The whole point is to avoid collapse of profit that would follow collapse of employment.
There are many problems with it, "UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion" is not. It is supposed to be "move wealth from owners of automation to general society".
Post by: Reelya on March 20, 2020, 04:16:44 am
There's also the fact that consistent inputs into the economy tend to stabilize the economy. If everyone gets their food check every month and you manage to keep inflation in check (interest rates and other proven levers) then overall this will have a strong stabilizing effect, and mean there aren't such wild swings with employment and the like.
Post by: coalboat on March 20, 2020, 04:20:07 am
I also realize that every western nation is doing more or less the same thing: react late, and then scramble to establish a lockdown.
This is typical and universal reaction to an unknown epidemic. Even Korea don't react early enough, but fortunately they seem to have managed the situation.
I think one of the reasons why Hong Kong and Singapore reacted timely is the lack of language barrier. Although the initial outbreak was downplayed by state owned media, unofficial information and panic spreaded quickly through Chinese speaking Internet, which made it easy for people to take "social distancing" seriously. Their small population and experience of dealing with SARS also helps of course.
Post by: martinuzz on March 20, 2020, 04:51:55 am
Those 4 republican senators (Richard Burr, Kelly Loeffler, Jim Inhofe, Ron Johnson), that shorted stocks (and bought stocks in citrix working from home software) just after the initial briefing about corona on the 24th of january), while publicly downplaying the threat...
They should not only be removed from office for insider trading, they should be imprisoned for 3x life.
Post by: mko on March 20, 2020, 04:57:22 am
https://www.rp.pl/Prokuratorzy/303209931-Prokuratura-i-KAS-przekaza-zarekwirowany-alkohol-na-walke-z-koronawirusem.html
-----------------------------------
Holy shit.I am not fan of random imprisoning, but super-sized fine (say, 98% of their wealth) would be nice.
Those 4 republican senators (Richard Burr, Kelly Loeffler, Jim Inhofe, Ron Johnson), that shorted stocks (and bought stocks in citrix working from home software) just after the initial briefing about corona on the 24th of january), while publicly downplaying the threat...
They should not only be removed from office, they should be imprisoned for 3x life.
Hopefully *something* will be done with them, because that is...
Post by: itisnotlogical on March 20, 2020, 06:32:31 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 20, 2020, 07:47:17 am
It's a very unusual choice: the new minister is a prominent member of one of our opposition parties, not a member of the government coalition.
That's a good choice. In times like these, political colour should not matter.
Post by: scriver on March 20, 2020, 07:47:38 am
Post by: McTraveller on March 20, 2020, 08:23:48 am
My rationale is this: Consider 10 beds and even only a 7-day recovery period: If you have only 1 new case a day, you are fine, because you will use 7 beds, and then on day 8 you will free up a bed and have room for the new case. But if you have more than 10 new "needs bed" cases in any 7 day period, you will overflow (and say overflowed until recovery rate starts to exceed new needs bed rate).
I'm guessing there is a reason we don't see statistics posted about how many free beds/ventilators/<resource> there really are.... I mean we know there are "shortages".
I'd like to see these virus trackers not just track new cases - I'd like to see ones that track "hospitalized" specifically, along with "free beds remaining", so we can have a more complete picture.
Post by: Akura on March 20, 2020, 08:51:22 am
Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: Possible response? (click to show/hide)
Post by: TD1 on March 20, 2020, 08:54:31 am
Post by: Reelya on March 20, 2020, 08:57:14 am
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/03/17/1584439125000/That-Imperial-coronavirus-report--in-detail-/
"Mitigation" which is the current strategy in the UK and US will "limit" deaths to 250,000 in the UK and 1.1-1.2 million in the USA, according to the Imperial College's epidemic modelling.
But ... those figures already assume that you're able to treat 100% of the patients who need treating. If you need a ventilator and can't get one, your odds go down from 50/50 to basically zero. I can't find the article right now but another source said that they worked out USA has 3% of the number of ventilators they'd need to have to cover the worst-case scenario, so effectively you get a 98.5% death rate among those who need ventilation. This bumps it up to the Imperial College's worst-case scenario for the USA, which is 2.2 million deaths.
Post by: McTraveller on March 20, 2020, 09:02:55 am
I can't find the article right now but another source said that they worked out USA has 3% of the number of ventilators they'd need to have to cover the worst-case scenarioEveryone always talks about worst-case scenario. What's the "most probable" scenario?
Post by: Reelya on March 20, 2020, 09:13:18 am
I can't find the article right now but another source said that they worked out USA has 3% of the number of ventilators they'd need to have to cover the worst-case scenarioEveryone always talks about worst-case scenario. What's the "most probable" scenario?
Well they did say 1.2 million deaths with 100% treatment, with 2.2 million deaths if it gets out of control. That's because your odds are 50% if ill and ventilated, vs 0% if not ventilated, so if the figures spike up to fast it caps out at double the deaths, vs mitigation so that everyone who needs it can get treated.
So unless they actually stop everyone getting it (fairly unlikely), you're going to have 1.2 - 2.2 million deaths, and it would hit that 2.2 million cap pretty quickly I'd guess, since the idea that you'd have enough ventilators for everyone is probably fanciful.
Things like the complete lockdown in California and other suppression methods may reduce the 1.2 million figure.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 09:20:00 am
Chairman is this you (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bay1_O1ZNsY)Hell no 🤣🤣🤣. That's the guy in Andalusia, an ED consultant. I'm not very fond of him because a couple of years ago he threatened his junior doctors with sancrions when they went on strike for their rights (meanwhile he had been advocating for years for a strike for consultant rights. So it was nasty and quite hypocritical)
I do understand why he's so frantic. He was deceived and in denial. He was sold, like many of us were all around the world, that mitigation and social distance would be enough. And now the truth has hit home and he realizes the enormity of what's coming. I know the feeling.
Now... (https://mobile.twitter.com/PAMJ84)
Post by: McTraveller on March 20, 2020, 09:56:18 am
What I'm having a hard time understanding is this: 1.2 million US deaths at a case fatality rate of 3% means 40 million total infected, or 125,000 cases per million population. If the CFR is 1%, that would mean 120 million infected, or 375,000 cases per million population.
Iceland has a case rate of at least 1200 per million, which is from the low-population country of Iceland. Italy, which is the media poster child for disaster, is probably a better proxy for expectations, which is ~700 cases per million. Let's say even that Italy's case count doubles, that would only be 1400 cases per million population. A case rate of 125k per million seems unlikely actually, even for Italy: the plots of total cases in Italy is starting to flatten (log plot) which suggests it's starting to get under some control.
So even if we take Iceland's infection rate of 1200 cases per million population, and a CFR of 3%, the US should see about 12k deaths, not 1.2 million (using 330M as US pop). Do we really think actual cases are 100 times the official counts? I can see 5-20 times yes, but 100 seems... unlikely.
We are already in social distancing mode to some extent basically worldwide - so is it reality or just FUD that we are going to have total case counts as high as these scenarios are playing out?
Spain's total case curve is also flattening, as is France, as is Germany. US is not, it looks to be constant-rate exponential still (looks linear on the log plot) but I suspect that is due to testing availability not actual infection rate. UK also looks constant-rate exponential, but I think again that is due to testing policy.
Post by: Reelya on March 20, 2020, 10:01:45 am
It doesn't pass the basic common sense test. If a disease going rampant only infected 1 in 1000 people then it wouldn't be spreading in the first place. You're only going to get an outcome like that if you prevent exposure using lockdowns.
Let's look at current trends and track 1 week ahead. The March 19th figure for USA infections was 13789, up from 221 on March 5th. The number of known infections jumped 48% in just the day between Mar 18-19. That really suggests this is the tip of the iceberg.
That's times-62 in 2 weeks. 2 weeks from now at that rate would by ... 860,000 total known infections. Sure, you can argue it "must" be about to taper off, but wasn't that what we were saying a week ago? Didn't happen.
Post by: martinuzz on March 20, 2020, 10:12:38 am
Ok ok, granted, the US healthcare system is way inferior to China's, at least it's accessability, but still.
Post by: Reelya on March 20, 2020, 10:21:01 am
the number of known US cases now is 10 times what it was a week ago, while it hasn't rise at all in China over the last week (80813 cases to 80897 cases, and most of the increase was people coming back from places like the USA). You just have to look at the graphs of China vs USA to see how silly the comparison is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
My main prediction here is that next weekend, USA (and several other nations) will exceed the number of known cases in China.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 10:26:43 am
They are flattening because they have lockdowns.
Spain's total case curve is also flattening, as is France, as is Germany. US is not, it looks to be constant-rate exponential still (looks linear on the log plot) but I suspect that is due to testing availability not actual infection rate. UK also looks constant-rate exponential, but I think again that is due to testing policy.
Btw you should check the deaths. Countries have different testing criteria depending among other things om availability. Deaths dont really change that much although they come with a delay because some people take a long time to die. Their picture is probably more accurate
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETfvNanXsAA1O06?format=jpg&name=large)
Now look where the UK and the US are headed in that regard.
If you dont do a lockdown *now* you're going to have it far worse than Italy and Spain.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 20, 2020, 10:27:26 am
Who appears to be immune to the virus? Who doesn't have to go to school no more? Who is to bear the burden of increasingly elderly population? Who ignores social distancing? Who is cheerful despite the crisis?
Guyze. Connect the dots. We gotta kill them kids. It's all their doing.
Post by: TD1 on March 20, 2020, 10:31:19 am
I suspect I know who the successful demographic would be....
Post by: Trekkin on March 20, 2020, 10:31:31 am
Guyze, forget all that. Listen. It's important.
Who appears to be immune to the virus? Who doesn't have to go to school no more? Who is to bear the burden of increasingly elderly population? Who ignores social distancing? Who is cheerful despite the crisis?
Guyze. Connect the dots. We gotta kill them kids. It's all their doing.
I am legitimately surprised, given this forum, that there isn't a general insistence on the part of the wingnuts that everyone go infect as many old people as possible in order to secure a political advantage through geriatricide.
Post by: Iduno on March 20, 2020, 10:39:12 am
-snip-This is a surprise to you?
That reads a lot like the government's intention was that as many people, especially poor people as possible would get sick and die.
Nope. I've been needing to put in effort to make sure I use a different wording every time I've said it this week.
Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
Also so they can fuck you on unemployment benefits.
Make sure to tell him you were told that you are gone because you were not able to stay home when you potentially have a deadly infectious disease. You aren't at fault, just keep reminding them that the reason behind this is them.
Odds are, if they realize what you can do to their reputation and possibly get them on legality, they'll pay the unemployment. Don't go back to work for them, or they will find excuses to punish you for "unrelated reasons."
Definitely something akin to what Akura recommends. Keep your paper trail right and kick up a fuss about it. If only to annoy your DM.
Also good advice/reasoning.
We didn't have anything in place for stuff like this. The Great Filter is that as civilizations become more advanced they thin their margins further and further, optimizing for maximum efficiency, until black swans (or just known unknowns like this) cause catastrophic failures.
Also good time to remind that UBI is a trick. Automation-based UBI is just a right-arm-to-left-arm blood transfusion meant to hide the collapse of profit that will follow large-scale automation. Feed them money so they can give it back to us so number go up and we can pretend we're not in a death spiral.
And this is just throwing people a bone because a multi-trillion stimulus package in the middle of a pandemic and impending mass unemployment has flared up class consciousness. If they're want to give you something, it's because they know you could take much, much more.
It's a trick, and generally is intended to be a way to remove social safety nets to kill off more people in the name of profit.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 20, 2020, 10:47:45 am
I am legitimately surprised, given this forum, that there isn't a general insistence on the part of the wingnuts that everyone go infect as many old people as possible in order to secure a political advantage through geriatricide.The Great Toad One said that line of thinking wasn’t cool and to cut it out.
My state is pretty much now under a shelter in place order in all but name (100% nonessential workplace mandated to work from home)
Post by: McTraveller on March 20, 2020, 10:55:18 am
1200 cases per million as the ultimate amount of people who'd be infected in a non-lockdown end-state is ridiculously optimistic.That was my point - we (in the US) are somewhere between "no lockdown" and "we'll shoot you if you go outside" lockdown. So why would we look at "no lockdown" projections? Or is there an assumption that "volunteer lockdown" is the same as "no lockdown"? I don't really buy that personally.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 11:09:31 am
Well. You really should1200 cases per million as the ultimate amount of people who'd be infected in a non-lockdown end-state is ridiculously optimistic.That was my point - we (in the US) are somewhere between "no lockdown" and "we'll shoot you if you go outside" lockdown. So why would we look at "no lockdown" projections? Or is there an assumption that "volunteer lockdown" is the same as "no lockdown"? I don't really buy that personally.
https://youtu.be/UkH-5bUeObc
It doesnt work on a volunteer basis. In order for it to work it has to be enforced and tough. The Chinese advisory team told the Italians as much and told them to tighten their restrictions. In Spain we were alrrady tighter and they'll lilely tell us to tighten it further
Post by: martinuzz on March 20, 2020, 11:14:19 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 11:24:47 am
I guess that's culture dependent.. Over here there is no enforced lockdown, but the vast majority of people voluntarily minimize going outside and social contacts.. Well except mothers with children in playgrounds, but that is because the government said it's still safe to let the children play outside.I hate to tell you this and I hope I'm wrong, but I think your goverment would serve you better by enforcing a harsh lockdown NOW than being too late. And really, even if I'm wrong and things *are* under control in the Netherlands, which I hope, it would be better to be safe than sorry.
I don't think cultural nuances are enough in this context. This shit is really good at spreading, and a few bad apples can ruin everybody's effort. And there are antisocial elements in every society.
We all thought it could be stopped by voluntary measures and people being hygienic. It's unfortunately failing in many places. The charts don't lie. Look at the trends and despair
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Really, thinking it's just about cultural nuances is waaay too optimistic. We thought we were doing things better than the italians, the italians doubtlessly thought they'd manage better than the Chinese, and the UK likely thought that they'd do better than Spain. It's a very disturbing pattern of overconfidence that is repeating over and over all over the western world.
I really really hope I'm wrong and that the Netherlands will stay clean for the foreseeable future. The less countries afflicted the lesser hit we'll all be, collectively
Post by: martinuzz on March 20, 2020, 11:34:12 am
Since thursday a week ago, people are now seeing the seriousness of the situation and are self-quarantaining.
The effects of this will start to show in a few days, because of incubation times. Hopefully.
Post by: Jopax on March 20, 2020, 11:36:24 am
In other news tho, after completely shutting down the workplace last two days ago, we're apparently continuing on Monday, still only two shifts tho and this time around we'll have to take care of our own food instead of using the cafeteria, which should be fucking fun considering limited fridge space and how generally dirty the whole place is, might just end up going hungry for most days :S
It's kind of eerie seeing how deserted the city is tho, what with non-essential stuff being closed and even stuff like grocery shops have limited work hours.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 20, 2020, 11:40:35 am
Well we are not staying clean. Hospitalization and deaths are still rising, but that's because we underestimated this thing for too long just like everyone else.Some people do, but definitely not everybody. The problem is that it will take two weeks to see if we are right or wrong. Cases in the Netherlands are likely to be terribly underreported too. A friend of mine and several family members (who live at different locations) are likely infected, (pneumonia with the classical symptoms), but remain untested for over a week now just because it is not serious enough for them to be admitted to hospital.
Since thursday a week ago, people are now seeing the seriousness of the situation and are self-quarantaining.
The effects of this will start to show in a few days, because of incubation times. Hopefully.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 20, 2020, 03:07:23 pm
Post by: askovdk on March 20, 2020, 03:20:55 pm
Uh oh, Covid-19 has reached Madagascar...
... and Greenland
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/efter-andet-coronatilfaelde-i-groenland-nuuk-lukker-helt-ned-og-flytrafik-stopper (https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/efter-andet-coronatilfaelde-i-groenland-nuuk-lukker-helt-ned-og-flytrafik-stopper)
I guess we will see biopoints spent on aggressive mutations activating soon. (/end joke)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 03:23:32 pm
The quarantine is too lax and too many people are violating it
People going out with no masks, people gathering for dinners in hotels
etc
Right afterwards the Italian healthcare minister announced that the peak wouldn't be next week but the following one
Here the quarantine has been harder from the onset, but we started later and some people have tried to flout it, though they're being leaned heavily on
I hope we do better. But it'd be more accurate that I'm holding on to that idea because I keep looking at italy as a model to what awaits us
Meanwhile the UK is restricting things a bit but STILL refusing to enforce a lockdown and preparing instead for 6 months of "mitigation". They're also preparing makeshift mortuaries all over the country. In case they became necessary "which they expect and hope they wont". Make of this what you will
SNIP
I've realized that on the topic of quarantines and cultural nuances, in Spain we have a home-run advantage over Italy: we're fairly spiteful. In Italy people were violating quarantine with not too much going on, and the Chinese said as much. Here, Spanish social medial is full of videos recorded by helpful neighbourgs who, with nothing else to do, stand in their balconies all day looking for quarantine breakers, and promtly calling the police. Then they jeer and laugh at them while they are arrested, and they record it and upload it to the web. That's how we amuse ourselves these days.
It's not asian discipline but I think it will do, in a pinch. :P
https://www.periodistadigital.com/gente/sucesos/20200320/salta-cuarentena-pide-auxilio-detiene-policia-vecinos-le-responden-baje-entras-vez-patrulla-noticia-689404282452/
Post by: Teneb on March 20, 2020, 06:23:58 pm
Post by: misko27 on March 20, 2020, 06:56:49 pm
Shit is indeed spooky: At least, everyone is spooked. My building has taped a box of tissues to the elevator inside and asked people to use them when pushing the button and then dispose of in the wastebasket also left in there. It's not nearly as useful as the hand-sanitizer they also left in there and which miraculously remains unstolen (I suppose the elevator camera has something to do with that).
I was planning to get a haircut today, and then they went and closed most of the businesses. But at least liquor stores were deemed essential (https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-york-liquor-stores-deemed-essential-can-stay-open-2020-3) I guess.
Post by: McTraveller on March 20, 2020, 07:23:46 pm
No frozen pizza, no eggs. Only honey wheat bread, no plain wheat or white. Milk - yes. Almost no cereal. All kinds of various juices - except apple. Plenty of lunchmeat, baked goods, candy, chips.
Very baffling array, really. Lots of fresh produce.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 20, 2020, 07:26:34 pm
Why no vodka?Insides Disinfectant
Post by: McTraveller on March 20, 2020, 07:31:59 pm
Also there were no eggs still.
Post by: coalboat on March 20, 2020, 08:28:31 pm
building has taped a box of tissues to the elevator inside and asked people to use them when pushing the button and then dispose of in the wastebasket also left in there.
This measure has been deployed in Shanghai too since February. In where I live though the elevator buttons are covered in saran wrap presumedly changed every two hours. I still wear a disposable glove on my right hand when I go out. When I need to used phone I take off the glove and handle the phone with right hand.
edit:
The paper is not for wiping the hand after pushing the button, but for being between the finger and the button when you push it, so there's no direct contact. Just in case people don't know...
Post by: delphonso on March 20, 2020, 09:09:11 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 09:18:02 pm
Things in Guangdong are getting lax, now. Plenty of people have stopped wearing masks. I'm strapped in for round 2...
FFFFFFFuuuu....
Damn man. I was looking at China as the example to follow in managing this. Don't fail us now :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(
Show your peers the pictures of the dead bodies hauled away in Italy.
Tell them that if we were stupid for not heeding the situation in China in time, they'd be doubly so if they got confident at this point.
Heck, appeal to their patriotism: if China keeps it's act together, the way things are going it will take precedence over the US as the leading world power. Anything
Really, if China burns now along the rest of us we.are.all.fucked. In all honesty we need things to happen in a domino fashion so that countries hit now stay clean later to help the ones that are hit later, and viceversa, and so on. So no, please, China can't get a Round Two, hopefully never, but at the very least until this shit is brought under control in the west. Because if we're all hit at once there won't be any relief coming, for anyone, anywhere.
Post by: mko on March 20, 2020, 09:32:56 pm
Things in Guangdong are getting lax, now. Plenty of people have stopped wearing masks. I'm strapped in for round 2...Well, it is going to become a new deadly illness circulating across the world. Like flu is nowadays, killing around 200 000 - 600 000 people each year.
I have decent chance to be killed by it within next 50+ years.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 20, 2020, 09:39:44 pm
Post by: mko on March 20, 2020, 10:03:30 pm
It doesn't mutate rapidly like the flu, so no.Right, good point. Hopefully it will stay this way.
Post by: coalboat on March 20, 2020, 10:09:55 pm
Things in Guangdong are getting lax, now. Plenty of people have stopped wearing masks. I'm strapped in for round 2...
Yes, although people still wear obligatory masks around where I am, social distancing is non-existent in rush hour bus or metro. Media encourages people to resume normal working.
However, I don't think it will really get out of control again. During the last few months (on the base of what has been done in the last few years), extensive infrastructure has been established to monitor the movement of every individuals of the population. Individual's activity is digitally documented like a released wolf with tracking collar. With this, to track and quarantine infected people is as easy as to locate a copper pick via DF stock menu.
So, Chairman, while it's reasonable to praise the decisive measure to contain the epidemic, maybe we should also consider if this infrastructure has the possibility of being used against the people.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 20, 2020, 10:15:02 pm
I'm self-aware enough to know this is fight-or-flight kicking in, heavily on the side of "flight, hide in a hole variant"
Post by: delphonso on March 20, 2020, 10:22:01 pm
Post by: Lidku on March 20, 2020, 11:21:09 pm
They've really outdone themselves this time. Usually they keep their mass murdering to its own citizens, but I guess with the CCP's attempted cover up in the beginning (Virus was active in Wuhan since November 2019) and allowing air traffic to continue, a huge portion of people are about to die. Just look at Italy. Look at its death count and compare it to China's. You KNOW China is lying because they didn't lockdown anything since mid-January. Before that the virus had a whole two months to spread around Hubei.
I can't stand China anymore. Before I was neutral about it, but now I'm vehemently against it and its practices. It also influenced WHO to downplay the virus so it didn't take any loss of face in the beginning.
Post by: Reelya on March 21, 2020, 12:11:48 am
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/
Quote
The video was uploaded by Guo Wengui, a Chinese billionaire and political activist. Wengui fled China in 2014 in anticipation of corruption charges from the Communist Party. Since then, Wengui, who is a member of President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, has become known for his criticism of Chinese leaders.
A watermark for G News, the media arm of Wengui’s company Guo Media, appears on the YouTube video. The site, which also employs Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist and former executive chairman of Breitbart News, has previously published misinformation about the coronavirus. Other conspiratorial websites, such as pro-Trump outlet the Epoch Times, have amplified the video on social media.
So you got a guy who's gone into exile to avoid corruption charges, and who clearly has a vested interest in taking down the Chinese government: he can go back home a wealthy man, and the corruption charges magically go away, who's also good buddies with Trump and Steve Bannon who concocted and spread the story.
The Epoch Times pushed the story, and they also refer to the virus as "The CCP virus", along with pushing every possible conspiracy theory - as long as it makes their man Trump look good and the CCP look bad. Amusing yes, unbiased news source, definitely not.
Post by: delphonso on March 21, 2020, 12:28:53 am
Post by: Reelya on March 21, 2020, 12:46:11 am
Most people only get mild symptoms. So there would only be about 1 in 20 chance that any initially-sick people would get sick enough to even come to the attention of the medical authorities. Before they even had any pneumonia patients to deal with, this disease was already spreading outside Wuhan via asymptomatic and mild symptoms patients.
https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html
Here's the time line according to research:
Quote
Dec. 10: Wei Guixian, one of the earliest known coronavirus patients, starts feeling ill.
Dec. 16: Patient admitted to Wuhan Central Hospital with infection in both lungs but resistant to anti-flu drugs. Staff later learned he worked at a wildlife market connected to the outbreak.
Dec. 27: Wuhan health officials are told that a new coronavirus is causing the illness.
Dec. 30:
Ai Fen, a top director at Wuhan Central Hospital, posts information on WeChat about the new virus. She was reprimanded for doing so and told not to spread information about it.
Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang also shares information on WeChat about the new SARS-like virus. He is called in for questioning shortly afterward.
Wuhan health commission notifies hospitals of a “pneumonia of unclear cause” and orders them to report any related information.
Dec. 31:
Wuhan health officials confirm 27 cases of illness and close a market they think is related to the virus' spread.
China tells the World Health Organization’s China office about the cases of an unknown illness.
so it's a little silly to say that because they've estimated the outbreak to have started back in November then the Chinese should have acted sooner. The soonest they could have acted is after Dec 27.
The bits they fucked up later are ominously similar to the things that fucked up in America too: labs ordered not to test samples they already have, and declaring there's no community transmission when there clearly had been.
How the Chinese messed up here is exactly the thing some people are calling for in the West: just let the virus blow through, because reacting to it will tank the economy and daily lives too much. So ... which is it? The virus is overblown and we shouldn't have to end our partying and nightlife to deal with it, or the Chinese are to blame because they didn't react and shut their own economy down quick enough?
Post by: coalboat on March 21, 2020, 02:01:00 am
As I said, Hong Kong and Singapore reacted quickly because they also speak Chinese. They were accessible to information everybody were talking about over the Internet, and not only what was translated from official report. You can register in Chinese social media and see what people are talking about and translate them into English (google translate is good enough in most cases) to share with others. What you describe are events that happened a month ago. Currently the situation is visibly much better. Although there's possibility of a second round of outbreak, it is unlikely to affect other countries any further, given how much the virus has already gone global.
Post by: Max™ on March 21, 2020, 03:06:15 am
Fear the COVID
Fear COVID Fear it
COV FEAR FEAR
COVFEFE
Sonofaturd hodor'D us.
Post by: wierd on March 21, 2020, 05:36:57 am
They were interviewing a nurse in California (who was using one of those voice anonymizer things), who was saying that due to limited availability of supplies, they were being used to re-use Single Use Only PPE and equipment.
That is some serious shit right there if true. WTF Yo.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 06:55:09 am
There was some scary shit on the morning news this morning.You're surprised? All the world is like that. You'll also see people working with regular surgical masks due to lack of PPEs, and people engaging in DIY projects to try to make something at home, which will oscillate between just making paper masks and trying to fit roomba HEPA filters in diving masks.
They were interviewing a nurse in California (who was using one of those voice anonymizer things), who was saying that due to limited availability of supplies, they were being used to re-use Single Use Only PPE and equipment.
That is some serious shit right there if true. WTF Yo.
This is the picture all over the world.
These are our lives for the next few months at least 😭
Post by: Flying Dice on March 21, 2020, 06:57:56 am
Is there any factual basis to the cremation thing. As far as I can tell it's related to a website run by Steven Bannon, and a wealthy Chinese ex-pat - so Breitbart-related and from a Chinese guy who's not even in China but has a bone with the Chinese government.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/26/facebook-posts/chinese-billionaire-floats-conspiracy-about-corona/QuoteThe video was uploaded by Guo Wengui, a Chinese billionaire and political activist. Wengui fled China in 2014 in anticipation of corruption charges from the Communist Party. Since then, Wengui, who is a member of President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, has become known for his criticism of Chinese leaders.
A watermark for G News, the media arm of Wengui’s company Guo Media, appears on the YouTube video. The site, which also employs Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist and former executive chairman of Breitbart News, has previously published misinformation about the coronavirus. Other conspiratorial websites, such as pro-Trump outlet the Epoch Times, have amplified the video on social media.
So you got a guy who's gone into exile to avoid corruption charges, and who clearly has a vested interest in taking down the Chinese government: he can go back home a wealthy man, and the corruption charges magically go away, who's also good buddies with Trump and Steve Bannon who concocted and spread the story.
The Epoch Times pushed the story, and they also refer to the virus as "The CCP virus", along with pushing every possible conspiracy theory - as long as it makes their man Trump look good and the CCP look bad. Amusing yes, unbiased news source, definitely not.
There was a story that broke in late January about Initium Media (a HK-based news outlet) conducting interviews with cremation center workers who reported that bodies were being shipped directly to their locations from hospitals without identification. That story was mostly circulated in second- and third-tier media outlets, but seems to have been corroborated by a Guardian article from mid-January (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/21/coronavirus-chinese-hospitals-not-testing-patients-say-relatives) which reported on an interview with the son of one of the early deaths who was pressured into allowing immediate cremation.
There was also a very clever bit of investigation someone did using the satellite tracking program at Windy.com (https://www.windy.com/) which provides a module for following active wildfires. They located a SO2 bloom on the order of 1300 micrograms per cubic meter near Wuhan and cross-referenced with satellite maps -- it was an empty field. For comparison, SO2 concentrations over major Chinese cities in the same timeframe were <150µg/m3. One of the main sources of atmospheric SO2 is the burning of fossil fuels, but another is the burning of fresh biological material. This occurred in early February, and I was able to confirm the findings myself mid-day on the 4th. People were crunching numbers and estimated that it would have taken ~13k human corpses to produce that much SO2, but I haven't done the math myself on that.
e: And "the CCP cremated thousands of corpses and didn't report the deaths to save face" isn't even remotely unlikely. There's plenty of strong circumstantial evidence that this was an escaped bioweapon and the whole "bat soup" shit was more lies to save face. You don't even start to touch conspiracy theory territory until you get past "the CCP used the outbreak as a media smokescreen to cover for their authoritarian actions in HK" and into "the CCP deliberately released the virus to help deal with their aging/over-population crisis".
I genuinely don't know why people are so willing to believe and forgive the CCP more than the apologists for Hitler or Stalin, when Maoist Communism and its adherents killed as many people out of sheer incompetence as often as malice.
Post by: delphonso on March 21, 2020, 06:58:11 am
Oh god... I think Trump was such an idiot back when he made that mysterious covfefe tweet--and then said nothing else the rest of the night--that in trying to escape the pain of being trapped inside itself, his mind looked outward and he caught a glimpse of the future.
Fear the COVID
Fear COVID Fear it
COV FEAR FEAR
COVFEFE
Sonofaturd hodor'D us.
I'm going to stay up all night thinking about this.
Post by: mko on March 21, 2020, 07:36:30 am
There was also a very clever bit of investigation someone did using the satellite tracking program at Windy.com (https://www.windy.com/) which provides a module for following active wildfires. They located a SO2 bloom on the order of 1300 micrograms per cubic meter near Wuhan and cross-referenced with satellite maps -- it was an empty field. For comparison, SO2 concentrations over major Chinese cities in the same timeframe were <150µg/m3. One of the main sources of atmospheric SO2 is the burning of fossil fuels, but another is the burning of fresh biological material. This occurred in early February, and I was able to confirm the findings myself mid-day on the 4th. People were crunching numbers and estimated that it would have taken ~13k human corpses to produce that much SO2, but I haven't done the math myself on that.Sorry, but it is absurdly poor evidence, so that it is not almost no evidence at all. Aerial images, S02 concentrations etc are very easy to misinterpret. And there are massive assumptions here. And without link to research attempt it is completely worthless.
I am guessing that it is done by people with nearly 0 knowledge about any topics mentioned here, without even attempt to judge error bars and no experience in making any research. And firm believers in stupid consipiracy theories like
There's plenty of strong circumstantial evidence that this was an escaped bioweaponwat. This is an extremely stupid conspiracy theory, nothing resembles bioweapon here. Everything here goes against an effective bioweapon. And claim "plenty of strong circumstantial evidence" without link to this supposed evidence is [citation needed] for me.
and the whole "bat soup" shit was more lies to save face.Nope, lies to save face were "AmErIcA StarReD CoViD, iT is All ThEiR FaUlT" that begin to appear. Coronaviruses in China were known to be one of the likely animal-to-human vectors.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I genuinely don't know why people are so willing to believe and forgive the CCP more than the apologists for Hitler or Stalin, when Maoist Communism and its adherents killed as many people out of sheer incompetence as often as malice.Hitler lost war. And sadly Stalin has plenty of apologists. Compare reaction to people walking with swastika on their hat and people walking with sickle & hammer / red army star on their hat.
Post by: martinuzz on March 21, 2020, 07:46:03 am
When are you guys going to get rid of this dangerously insane president? I'd start a new impeachment, for he has endangered the life of many US citizens.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 21, 2020, 07:55:11 am
Now reports are also saying Kushner has his own ‘Coronavirus task force’ running around in the shadows.
Post by: coalboat on March 21, 2020, 08:32:06 am
they were being used to re-use Single Use Only PPE and equipment.
This is likely to be true. In early February doctors in Wuhan had to wear makeshift suit made from plastic file folder and large garbage bag when the equipments ran out.
About conspiracy theory:
Right now it is not useful to discuss if it is a bio-weapon or not. Even if it is, does this make virus more dangerous or less? We have tens of thousands of cases around world for experts to study, and the origin of the virus is already not important to determine its characteristics. This is also why whether it is originated in China or "brought to Wuhan by participants of Military World Games" is completely irrelevant to how to fight the pandemic.
About the suspected very high death number:
A significant portion of the deaths in Wuhan was actually not directly caused by the virus, but was caused by the collateral damage of quarantine.
@Lidku, and Flying Dice: If you live in US, think if a hurrican happens, but the whole area is surrounded by army to keep you from leaving, and all public transportation and hospitals stop operating, and you don't have a car, and it's winter, and you have pneumonia... or maybe you don't have pneumonia but you have chronicle disease and are running out of necessary medicine, or you need to go to hospital regularly but now cannot... or you are disabled but your family members are quarantine and you cannot cook or bath or go to toilet by yourself...
I don't think even Trump has the power to quarantine a whole US city with army, and most Americans have car, and now the temperature is already rising... What happened in Wuhan is different from what will happen in where you live.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 21, 2020, 08:35:56 am
I'm not sure what people will actually do as this continues, but I am confident that people will just sit inside and do nothing for some period of time.
Except boomers and older. They're freaks who'll go outside and get in fistfights with cops if denied, even if they weren't planning on going out anyway.
Post by: scriver on March 21, 2020, 08:38:01 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 08:51:16 am
Swedish hospital staff has been making makeshift face screens out if overhead projector plastic papersIt's the same all the world over.
I think the Chinese DIY mask videos should be shown to the general population. Every little thing helps.
Stay safe
Post by: Reelya on March 21, 2020, 09:02:35 am
https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-exiled-billionaire-says-china-burning-1200-bodies-a-day/
Quote
Guo Wengui has a history of making outlandish claims against the CPC. He's now alleging that China could be incinerating 1,200 bodies daily.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/times-fact-check/news/fact-check-satellite-images-showing-high-levels-of-sulphur-dioxide-indicate-mass-cremations-in-china/articleshow/74130633.cms
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874013
Quote
In an interview with the Taiwan FactCheck Center, WeatherRisk Explore Inc. President Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) said that Czech company Windy derives its data on pollutants from NASA's GEOS-5 simulation system, which is not based on real-time satellite data, but rather "near-real-time" estimates derived from past emissions levels. Peng said the burning of oil or coal would produce high levels of sulfur dioxide (SO2), while the human body is mainly composed of hydrocarbons and proteins.
Peng said that cremations of human corpses would produce more in the way of nitrogen oxides (NOx) than SO2. Peng added that even if coal, gas, or oil was used to burn the bodies, it would be unlikely to produce such a large concentration of sulfur dioxide.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/sulfur-coronavirus-cremations/
Quote
Problem One: Not an Actual Observation of Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations
The source of the data highlighted in the Twitter thread is a company named Windy.com, which combines several models and meteorological inputs to create global maps of weather conditions aimed primarily at people who partake in outdoor sports. Windy, in turn, gets its sulfur data from a NASA climate model named GEOS-5. Arlindo da Silva, a research meteorologist at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, told the British fact-checking organization Full Fact that the GEOS-5 sulphur dioxide models do not “assimilate real satellite data” into their forecasts.
Instead, he said, “Our forecasts are based on fixed emission inventories,” which “do not account for the day-to-day variations in SO2 emissions and as such cannot account for sudden changes in human activity.” The sulfur fluctuations present in the GEOS-5 model stem from “variations in the meteorological conditions, in particular winds.” The high levels of industry in the region — the Wuhan Iron & Steel Company — are likely the cause of higher “emission inventories” prescribed by the model for the Wuhan region.
So, major problem: the SO2 emissions are based on projections not on observations, so it's literally impossible for them to have picked up any change, assuming it even exists.
Quote
Problem Two: Sulfur Emissions Are Not A Significant Factor in Cremation
The viral twitter thread asserts that “sulfur dioxide [is] commonly associated with the burning of organic matters.” This is a technically correct statement that is grossly misleading in this context. Sulfur dioxide is commonly associated with the burning of coal. Coal, formed from the carbon compounds of dead plant material buried and heated naturally in the earth for millions to hundreds of millions of years, is indeed an example of “organic matter” that, when burned, can release sulfur dioxide.
Humans, while also an example of organic matter, nevertheless contain a negligible amount of sulfur.
Second major problem: humans actually contain fuck all sulfur.
Can't we just put this one to bed? It's an extremely dumb conspiracy theory.
Post by: Imic on March 21, 2020, 09:04:59 am
Post by: delphonso on March 21, 2020, 09:05:58 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 21, 2020, 09:15:29 am
Post by: Quarque on March 21, 2020, 09:29:07 am
Some outlets have reported that Trump’s PR ‘it’s a hoax!’ response comes from how instead listening to trained professionals, Trump listened to Jared Kushner.I didn't know that he is capable of listening to someone.
Post by: Reelya on March 21, 2020, 09:30:37 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 09:45:59 am
I live in the countryside, so there’s very little worry of catching It, if only because there’s very few people to catch it from, and most of them are taking heavy precautions anyway, as am I. My Uncle’s stopped coming for food, thank God, because he’s convinced I and everyone else in the village already have it. The government sent out a speech from the Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) a few day ago, and apparently they’re going to provide welfare for those who can’t work or lose their jobs or are at risk, which is nice. They’re acually spending money on the populace for once. It was a hideously scripted speech though, and he quoted Winston Churchill at one point, completely forgetting that he was the shithead who ordered the fucking Black-and-Tans to come over and brutalize us. It was better than it couod have been, a lot better than the responses in the UK and the USA, but christ if I can’t stand that man sometimes.I think Dublin's going to become a warzone. Cork too probably. The rest of Ireland might be sort of safe due to low pop density but don't be too confident. Araba in the Basque Country also had low pop density and has a very nasty outbreak due to the antisocial behavior of a few.
I think it might be a bit milder in Ireland, if only because St Patrick was cancelled in time.
Post by: misko27 on March 21, 2020, 09:59:48 am
St. Patricks being cancelled in New York had a very interesting impact on me for the one time a year we went to pick up wine for cooking purposes and managed to forget the day; the liquor store was absolutely fucking packed.
My building is circulating contingency plans for a shelter-in-place order, which has suddenly made that possibility seem quite real to me, and also made me really hope it doesn't come to pass: from talking about who will and won't be allowed into the building to asking for volunteers to be doormen to the expected cessation of mail delivery to talking about contracting security for the duration. Also, I'll probably volunteer to be a doorman if this does become a thing because why not.
Finally, I'm getting really concerned about the hospital situation. Earlier in the week it hadn't seemed so dire: they had cancelled elective surgery, but my mother still had her colonoscopy scheduled (it wasn't elective because it was to be the second one this year: last time they had removed stuff but there was a spot they had had to come back to), so I figured things were still OK. The following day it was cancelled. I fear we'll be strained to the breaking point, and then some.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 10:08:32 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 10:18:02 am
If only there was a pill to sleep until all this was over
Post by: Jerick on March 21, 2020, 10:31:34 am
I live in the countryside, so there’s very little worry of catching It, if only because there’s very few people to catch it from, and most of them are taking heavy precautions anyway, as am I. My Uncle’s stopped coming for food, thank God, because he’s convinced I and everyone else in the village already have it. The government sent out a speech from the Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) a few day ago, and apparently they’re going to provide welfare for those who can’t work or lose their jobs or are at risk, which is nice. They’re acually spending money on the populace for once. It was a hideously scripted speech though, and he quoted Winston Churchill at one point, completely forgetting that he was the shithead who ordered the fucking Black-and-Tans to come over and brutalize us. It was better than it couod have been, a lot better than the responses in the UK and the USA, but christ if I can’t stand that man sometimes.I agree entirely. Varadkar is absolutely terrible politician but from what I understand is a decent doctor. They're nearly doubling the number of ventilator kits in the country and making agreements with a number of hotels and army barracks so they can turn them into temporary hospitals before the surge in cases hits. A world of difference from the Uk and US response.
Post by: TD1 on March 21, 2020, 12:22:31 pm
I live in the countryside, so there’s very little worry of catching It, if only because there’s very few people to catch it from, and most of them are taking heavy precautions anyway, as am I. My Uncle’s stopped coming for food, thank God, because he’s convinced I and everyone else in the village already have it. The government sent out a speech from the Taoiseach (Irish prime minister) a few day ago, and apparently they’re going to provide welfare for those who can’t work or lose their jobs or are at risk, which is nice. They’re acually spending money on the populace for once. It was a hideously scripted speech though, and he quoted Winston Churchill at one point, completely forgetting that he was the shithead who ordered the fucking Black-and-Tans to come over and brutalize us. It was better than it couod have been, a lot better than the responses in the UK and the USA, but christ if I can’t stand that man sometimes.
Hah, quoting Churchill in the Republic. Not smart. Though of course the Black and Tans didn't kill Patrick O'Connell or James McDonnell.
Post by: Jopax on March 21, 2020, 12:49:41 pm
Except in this case disinfecting entails taking their stuff.
And this is before shit has hit the fan, how low will they stoop once we're actually short on basic things is anyones guess.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 21, 2020, 01:13:18 pm
The numbers coming out of Italy are absolutely dreadful
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 01:27:34 pm
https://youtu.be/LBFQ8aTad9I
I didn't record it but it's one of the must-see places in my homeland.
It has been a long, long time since I was there last :(
Post by: Enemy post on March 21, 2020, 01:40:10 pm
Post by: misko27 on March 21, 2020, 02:49:59 pm
For what I've heard official NYC estimates already stated a week ago that they didn't have enough resources to cope. Even assuming a degree of exaggeration, it will be very very bad. Worse because the fed govt is doing nothingYes, this was true. Except now it's moved from projections and hypotheticals to something that is actively happening (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-hospitals.html).
Post by: Jopax on March 21, 2020, 03:01:57 pm
Also Croatia is in for a fun time, number of confirmed cases doubled today to nearly 200 total. You'd think people would have learned from Italy but it seems nobody was taking the quarantine too seriously and most folks were treating it like a holiday of sorts. Luckily the government was somewhat more prepared in that they started work on emergency hospitals in various big cities around the country. If that will be enough remains to be seen tho.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 21, 2020, 03:40:35 pm
and this one for the Air and Space museum. (https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/your-tour-through-national-air-and-space-museum)
wow the worse one :p
Post by: Bumber on March 21, 2020, 04:42:15 pm
If it helps anyone cope with the isolation, here's a 360° video
https://youtu.be/LBFQ8aTad9I
I didn't record it but it's one of the must-see places in my homeland.
It has been a long, long time since I was there last :(
Link causes tab to crash. :(
Waterfox Classic doesn't like whatever format that is.
Post by: Max™ on March 21, 2020, 04:53:42 pm
It's worse, I realized now I was mistaken about things.Oh god... I think Trump was such an idiot back when he made that mysterious covfefe tweet--and then said nothing else the rest of the night--that in trying to escape the pain of being trapped inside itself, his mind looked outward and he caught a glimpse of the future.
Fear the COVID
Fear COVID Fear it
COV FEAR FEAR
COVFEFE
Sonofaturd hodor'D us.
I'm going to stay up all night thinking about this.
"Despite my perfect response, the constant fake news and negative press over whatever covid is hurts my feelings."
"Despite my perfect response, the constant negative press over covid hurts my feelings."
"Despite the constant negative press over covid hurting my feefees"
"Despite the constant negative press covfefe"
Post by: misko27 on March 21, 2020, 06:26:42 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 21, 2020, 06:59:12 pm
Post by: misko27 on March 21, 2020, 07:40:17 pm
And I mean you gotta love this line:
Quote from: NYC Health Department
You are your safest sex partner.How true that is.
Post by: scriver on March 21, 2020, 07:44:25 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2020, 08:04:16 pm
Welp, starting tomorrow a nation wide curfew is in effect. Probably gonna have to get a permit from your workplace to be able to leave the house outside those hours. There's also talk (very unconfirmed) that they'll be shutting down the roads leading into/out of the city, which, considering my place of work is outside it is gonna be fun and probably another permit or straight up not being allowed to move :SNobody takes it seriously until it happens. It's happening all the world over, country after country. I think it's such an out of context problem that it's very hard to think it will really happen. Noone in the west has seen this happen in living memory.
Also Croatia is in for a fun time, number of confirmed cases doubled today to nearly 200 total. You'd think people would have learned from Italy but it seems nobody was taking the quarantine too seriously and most folks were treating it like a holiday of sorts. Luckily the government was somewhat more prepared in that they started work on emergency hospitals in various big cities around the country. If that will be enough remains to be seen tho.
One thing that surprises me a lot is that the Spanish lockdown for all it's flaws seems significatively tighter than the ones elsewhere in Europe. And really, I think it should probably be even harder. So I don't get why everyone is going for softer lockdowns, let alone voluntary ones. If this crisis has proved anything is that you cannot expect the general population to behave responsibly to the extent they need during this crisis. Waaay too many people don't grasp how bad it is and try to wiggle their way around the quarantine.
For instance, last thursday an incredible number of people in Spain tried to take the road to go on holidays to the beach. I shit you not. And yes, this includes Madrid, which so far has more than half of all the detected cases (so common sense suggests it also has the majority of the undetected ones). They were all stopped and all got hefty fines (really, this lockdown is serious. If you try to leave your city or town it's very unlikely you'll get far without being stopped by the police or the army). Also clandestine parties, etc, etc...
All those things happen, yes, but the problem is that if you make this whole thing voluntary and don't enforce it they make it even more. At least this way the ones who do it (who are being systematically reported by neighbours) are cracked down on by the police.
Post by: Max™ on March 21, 2020, 08:41:58 pm
As for belts or straps, around the neck is a step too far for me, downstairs can be fun with safe knots AND SATIN ONLY, don't be the guy calling the an ambulance because his thing turned blue after putting a rubber band or shrinking fabric loop around it... especially not in a pandemic!
Post by: Reelya on March 22, 2020, 12:41:14 am
Mind you this was just from the random local guy who runs the fish and chip shop near my house.
The guy was downplaying the virus, and he somehow linked it to the vaping deaths that happened a year or two ago. His theory is that these deaths are really vaping deaths, and they're disguising them as coronavirus deaths, and then he just trailed off, as if the rest doesn't need to be said. "It all makes sense now" basically.
Firstly, the vaping deaths aren't even a thing anymore since they worked out what was causing that (a specific cutting agent marketed for THC vapes, and the guys selling it closed shop as soon as the articles came out linking it to deaths). Second, why in hell would they want to hide vaping deaths of all things as a super-contagious virus, knowing full well the panic would destroy the economy, probably including vape sales as well.
Post by: misko27 on March 22, 2020, 12:47:35 am
Louisiana's in a rough spot: they have 585 cases to Texas' 304 (and 16 deaths to 2), but they've tested half as many people as Texas has.
Post by: Reelya on March 22, 2020, 12:53:01 am
However, the flipside there is that there was also a sort of plateau last weekend. Maybe they're just more likely to run the tests on the Friday vs the weekend?
Post by: wierd on March 22, 2020, 01:03:36 am
That should be taken into account.
Post by: Frumple on March 22, 2020, 01:10:32 am
Mind we're still massively fucking under testing the population, especially in a way to catch asymptomatic or mild cases, or folks that's got infected without anyone noticing and then hauled off somewhere else. Things are improving on that front (if far too goddamn slowly), but we're functionally still flying fucking blind as a nation.
Which is to say that's probably not good news. It's more a condemnation of our testing capacity and patterns than anything hopeful about the state of the spread.
And yeah, you can see the criteria some states or the CDC is using to recommend testing by, just go hopping around state health department websites or the CDC's stuff. Frankly, they're complete fucking shit for trying to find cases that have already escaped the stupidly goddamn anemic testing net.
Post by: misko27 on March 22, 2020, 01:20:05 am
I just wish we could estimate how much though. Feels like we're groping our way through this crisis blind.
Post by: ArchAIngel on March 22, 2020, 02:45:34 am
"So we added a Covid 19 tab to calling out. You can use this WHENEVER. Even if you're just afraid. Yes, we say that specifically. No pay unless you provide proof of test, then pay until you have a doctor note saying you Not Sick. Also if you come in during that period, boot, no questions asked."
Also, store hours from 7AM to 8:30PM, PERIOD.
So my job's gotten... pretty slow, honestly? I'm a cart pusher/walking big thing lifter, and in Washington State. I'm honestly not that afraid. It's pretty chill, the weather's a nice comfortable 40 or so faren, and it's an "essential" job.
Bonus points, employees scheduled after 8:30 can still shop the store. Because the Walmart CEO's are really quite sensible people, it seems.
That, and supplies are doing fine. Only issue is stocking fast enough.
Post by: Kagus on March 22, 2020, 03:11:23 am
Most.
The problem here is that people have been flooding to the last remaining open ones and booking the places to full capacity because "everywhere else is closed!"
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Does this look like fucking social distancing to you?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 03:31:51 am
Most pubs and restaurants in Norway have closed down due to the covid risk.Shit.
Most.
The problem here is that people have been flooding to the last remaining open ones and booking the places to full capacity because "everywhere else is closed!"Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Does this look like fucking social distancing to you?
Why are we collectively this bad at doing this thing?
Post by: Trekkin on March 22, 2020, 05:00:36 am
Why are we collectively this bad at doing this thing?
Have you ever read "The Cold Equations"?
That's why.
We've spent millennia putting together an elaborate system of anthropocentric flimflammery to let people pretend that what really matters in life is so abstract anyone just might have it. Most folks can't properly imagine a problem they really can't charm, bluff, or incentivize their way past, so they just ignore it to hang on to their illusion of agency.
And since that illusion is all that gets most people out of bed in the morning, it's probably preferable to the alternative. We must imagine Sisyphus happy.
Post by: Jopax on March 22, 2020, 05:05:22 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 05:21:27 am
Why are we collectively this bad at doing this thing?The human being is a social animal. Most of us need to see other people every once in a while, or we get depressed or go crazy.
There's a reason that human rights conventions forbid forced social isolation for prolonged periods.
For example over here, it is forbidden to put a prisoner, or psychiatric patient in isolation for longer than 24h without human contact.
Doing so anyway is classified as torture.
That being said, crowding a bar like that in these times is just stupid.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 06:56:40 am
This is an exceptional situation. It's not only bar crowding. Its every single mistake that turns into a chain of mistakes.Why are we collectively this bad at doing this thing?The human being is a social animal. Most of us need to see other people every once in a while, or we get depressed or go crazy.
There's a reason that human rights conventions forbid forced social isolation for prolonged periods.
For example over here, it is forbidden to put a prisoner, or psychiatric patient in isolation for longer than 24h without human contact.
Doing so anyway is classified as torture.
That being said, crowding a bar like that in these times is just stupid.
We need a complete lockdown. And by "we" I mesn everyone
Post by: wierd on March 22, 2020, 07:22:04 am
I'm such an antisocial bastard though that this is NOT a change to my normal routine in the slightest, so I am basically unimpacted except for the occasional trip to the store every 2 weeks for supplies.
How can people just *NOT* understand that this is some serious shit, and to JUST STAY THE FUCK HOME? I only go to work because I WORK in HEALTHCARE, and that is not something you can shelve.
Seriously-- This failure to buckle down and do the right thing (collectively) is why climate change is a thing, why poverty is a thing, and clearly-- why this pandemic killing thousands daily IS A FUCKING THING.
Seriously-- Your desire to drink some booze is just not worth it. STAY HOME.
Post by: coalboat on March 22, 2020, 07:26:35 am
Welp, Croatia is in for a fun time, had a nasty series of quakes in Zagreb this morning, lots of older buildings are fairly damaged, some injured, atleast one dead, but most importantly, a ton of people have been evacuated without a place to go really, the biggest of which was the entirety of the maternity ward with like a dozen newborns and their mothers. So lots of people out and about and a diminished healthcare infrastructure at a point where things started going downhill already.
News says the magnitude is 5.3, which is not small. Bad time to have an earthquake.
Post by: McTraveller on March 22, 2020, 07:33:50 am
This is an exceptional situation. It's not only bar crowding. Its every single mistake that turns into a chain of mistakes.Everyone except medical staff, farmers, truck drivers, people making medical supplies, people refining fuel, firefighters, emergency services, people keeping power and water and waste management going, keeping the internet and telecommunications going, keeping the roads and bridges from collapsing....
We need a complete lockdown. And by "we" I mesn everyone
It's like the worst possible ethics test: "At all costs" is a dangerous attitude. If you put 10 million people out of jobs for a decade to keep 1 million people alive - is that worth it? I now know why only the type of people who get in national leadership get there - most people can't make such decisions without giving themselves a stroke.
ASIDE: Utah in the US had a 5.x earthquake this week too. Sadly, lots more fuel for the "it's the signs of the apocalypse" types, despite the fact that earthquakes happen pretty much all the time. Add in the locusts in Africa... ::)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 07:39:06 am
get real. it wont be one million people if left unchecked. It will be far more. All the covid deaths plus all the other deaths for other stuff that could normally get treated and isnt because of covid. In the US, the way it's going? It could be several millions dead.This is an exceptional situation. It's not only bar crowding. Its every single mistake that turns into a chain of mistakes.Everyone except medical staff, farmers, truck drivers, people making medical supplies, people refining fuel, firefighters, emergency services, people keeping power and water and waste management going, keeping the internet and telecommunications going, keeping the roads and bridges from collapsing....
We need a complete lockdown. And by "we" I mesn everyone
It's like the worst possible ethics test: "At all costs" is a dangerous attitude. If you put 10 million people out of jobs for a decade to keep 1 million people alive - is that worth it? I now know why only the type of people who get in national leadership get there - most people can't make such decisions without giving themselves a stroke.
ASIDE: Utah in the US had a 5.x earthquake this week too. Sadly, lots more fuel for the "it's the signs of the apocalypse" types, despite the fact that earthquakes happen pretty much all the time. Add in the locusts in Africa... ::)
And by the way those jobs are gone either way. EITHER. WAY. You can't have a small scale genocide withour economic repercussions.
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 07:47:53 am
We still need healthcare workers, policemen, firemen, undertakers, road maintnance, truck drivers, gas station operators, farmers, illegal immigrants to harvest the crops, garbage collectors, people manning the cash registers in supermarkets, people working in daycare for children of those parents who work in any of the abovementioned essential jobs...
You can't keep society running if you keep 100% of people in lockdown. About 25% of our workers work in essential jobs and will keep spreading the virus, if you like it or not.
And about 100% of people will still need to shop to get food on the table. And not everyone has the means to shop only once every 2 weeks. Not everyone owns a car.
Post by: McTraveller on March 22, 2020, 07:54:07 am
I'd still pose the question if it was 100 million jobs given up for 10 million deaths, or even 10 million jobs for 10 million deaths, or even 1 million jobs for 10 million deaths.get real. it wont be one million people if left unchecked. It will be far more. All the covid deaths plus all the other deaths for other stuff that could normally get treated and isnt because of covid. In the US, the way it's going? It could be several millions dead.This is an exceptional situation. It's not only bar crowding. Its every single mistake that turns into a chain of mistakes.Everyone except medical staff, farmers, truck drivers, people making medical supplies, people refining fuel, firefighters, emergency services, people keeping power and water and waste management going, keeping the internet and telecommunications going, keeping the roads and bridges from collapsing....
We need a complete lockdown. And by "we" I mesn everyone
It's like the worst possible ethics test: "At all costs" is a dangerous attitude. If you put 10 million people out of jobs for a decade to keep 1 million people alive - is that worth it? I now know why only the type of people who get in national leadership get there - most people can't make such decisions without giving themselves a stroke.
ASIDE: Utah in the US had a 5.x earthquake this week too. Sadly, lots more fuel for the "it's the signs of the apocalypse" types, despite the fact that earthquakes happen pretty much all the time. Add in the locusts in Africa... ::)
And by the way those jobs are gone either way. EITHER. WAY. You can't have a small scale genocide withour economic repercussions.
Also the question isn't "would we have economic disruption without mitigations due to virus deaths" - the question is "how much more disruption did we inflict on ourselves because of the lockdowns" - and the answer is "a lot, but we'll never really know exactly".
There is no such thing as a free lunch - you can't save all the people for free, and you can't let all the people die of disease for free. I fully appreciate that.
The problem I have is the unequivocal declaration that sacrificing jobs for lives is always the better choice, or the unequivocal statement that keeping jobs is the better choice.
EDIT: And yes, what martinuzz said. And I also clarified that I don't like unequivocal statements on either extreme.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 08:43:11 am
But his point still stands that putting *everyone* in lockdown is just not possible.Well yes, full lockdown means "everyone not in essential jobs". I thought that much was obvious.
We still need healthcare workers, policemen, firemen, undertakers, road maintnance, truck drivers, gas station operators, farmers, illegal immigrants to harvest the crops, garbage collectors, people manning the cash registers in supermarkets, people working in daycare for children of those parents who work in any of the abovementioned essential jobs...
You can't keep society running if you keep 100% of people in lockdown. About 25% of our workers work in essential jobs and will keep spreading the virus, if you like it or not.
And about 100% of people will still need to shop to get food on the table. And not everyone has the means to shop only once every 2 weeks. Not everyone owns a car.
Before you say it's impossible consider that we know it has been done, that it works, and that the latter you do it the worse it is.
Italy already came out and said that their former partial lockdown wasnt working snd they'd do that. Spain's lockdown IS tighter than Italy's... but I suspect we'll do the same at some point next week.
Post by: Kagus on March 22, 2020, 10:28:20 am
Covid has been seriously taxing the sewage network.
How, you ask? Is this the super-diarrhea we've suspected all along, the true reason for the TP hoarding? No no, it doesn't have any symptoms like that. No, this is the result of people using vastly larger quantities of things like sanitary wipes, tissues, paper towels, q-tips, cotton balls etc.... And then flushing it all down the toilet.
The rapid increase of items that should not be flushed getting flushed has been clogging pipes and gumming up processing machinery all up and down the line. Because that's really the kind of problem we want to be having now.
This is even worse than when the medical response network said "Do not leave for your remote wilderness cabins, if there's a medical emergency we will not be able to come get you", and so the people went to their remote wilderness cabins for a lovely retreat since they had so much time off now and then they got sick and went "We're sick! Come get us!".
Fucking mongs.
Post by: Max™ on March 22, 2020, 11:04:16 am
"Ok this might be nothing but be prepared."
"Ok, maybe being prepared isn't enough, be careful."
"Ok, when we said be careful we mean avoid crowds."
"Ok, please stop tongue-kissing strangers and sneezing in each other's mouths."
"Ok, since you are assholes we're gonna have to lock everything down."
"Ok, seriously, that means stop dicking around like you're not at risk, YOU'RE PUTTING EVERYONE AT RISK!"
"Ok, we understand being asked to avoid being social is hard for social creatures but we're all going to fucking die, knock it off!"
Me:
*laughs in aspergers but really crying slash horrified*
Post by: Iduno on March 22, 2020, 12:04:37 pm
Almost all retail liquor in the US is limited to about 80 proof - vodka included - so it's unclear why only that variant was wiped out. I prefer brandy myself.
Have you considered that people are stupid as fuck?
Same reason we're keeping people healthy here by preventing them from going into the grocery store as a group. No more than 10 people, including employees, are allowed in the building at once. So everyone is spending hours waiting in close proximity to each other in the rain for their turn to go shop. I guess it *is* an efficient way to make sure to infect as many shoppers at once as possible.
Is there any factual basis to the cremation thing. As far as I can tell it's related to a website run by Steven Bannon, and a wealthy Chinese ex-pat - so Breitbart-related and from a Chinese guy who's not even in China but has a bone with the Chinese government.
To my knowledge, there has never been a factual basis to anything Lidku has said. Unless you are willing to ignore most of the sentence, so it just says "China is."
So Trump was already warned by the intelligence agencies that the virus would become pandemic back in january, and again in february, but he disregarded that and called it a hoax.
When are you guys going to get rid of this dangerously insane president? I'd start a new impeachment, for he has endangered the life of many US citizens.
2024.
I dunno about you folks, but my itinerary has been "Home->Work" and "Work->Home", and nowhere else.
We finally got permission to work from home, after a week trying to figure out how to get the programs to work.
Seriously-- Your desire to drink some booze is just not worth it. STAY HOME.
Come (don't) to the hot new drinking spot: Alone at Home, In the Dark, Like the gods Intended.
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 12:42:54 pm
The 1.5m distance advice is also no longer an advice, but it's obligatory. Police will be deployed to enforce the new rules.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 22, 2020, 12:46:49 pm
Post by: Cyroth on March 22, 2020, 01:00:00 pm
When the nearby Weinfest was cancelled literally hundreds of old people still went there, going "well, they've closed the booze stalls but I can just bring my own booze".
Pisses off the you folk who stopped partying and then see 20+ seniors crowded into a cafe.
Hopefully this will finally put a stop to oldsters flaunting the rules.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 22, 2020, 01:06:20 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 01:10:31 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 22, 2020, 01:20:44 pm
Germany will survive this crisis handily, as there is nothing they love more than obnoxiously following rules.
They do like rules, but they also don't like to be told what to do. German is a land of contrasts.
Edit: MFer just said mental viruses.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1241415953994268673 (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1241415953994268673)
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 01:23:33 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 01:27:09 pm
Post by: Ulfarr on March 22, 2020, 01:36:06 pm
:(
Post by: Inarius on March 22, 2020, 02:29:44 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 03:17:49 pm
Mayors and government officials had to close down roads today to stop people from flocking to the beach, and our national nature preservation organistation, Natuurmonumenten, had to beg people to stop going to our nature parks and preserves, because they were overcrowding.
Has to be said that most of these activities took place in the northern provinces, where the virus has not, or barely appeared yet. Over here in the south the streets are mostly empty.
Thanks, idiots, if you keep this up we will have mandatory curfews soon.
Post by: Hydrocyanide on March 22, 2020, 03:24:07 pm
Post by: mko on March 22, 2020, 03:28:34 pm
----
I wonder whatever it would be useful to send official request (just from me, via officially signed letter) to the government to request lowering allowed gathering size from 50 to something lower.
I did it multiple times with local government and with things where just reporting/requesting fix was likely to result in effects. But maybe in this case it would be a good idea to try it with something larger.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 03:29:21 pm
Greece is going in complete lockdown. Starting tommorow we are going into curfew and anyone going outside their home will have to have a permit.Really, it's for the best. We have to stop this.
:(
A glimmer of hope: in Spain the daily increases have slowed down two days in a row. Maybe we *are* flattening the curve.
There's a risk that qe're actually bursting through the seams and missing cases but I hope we are not as testing is actually increasing in most Spain. I wanr
The global peak is supposed to happen mid to late april. In the region I am is supposed to happen in 8-12 days. We'll see
Post by: Quarque on March 22, 2020, 03:33:54 pm
Today I found myself thinking that the sky looked bigger than usual, and the reason for that just hit me: Due to nearly all flights being cancelled, there are no contrails anymore.Over here I can smell the difference. The air has become that much cleaner.
The cynical part of me thinks that I should take advantage and try to catch the virus right now, before we get back to polluting the air YOLO style.
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 03:39:23 pm
(Nearly all other hospitals in the country with 18 million inhabitants have been destroyed in 9 years of war).
6.2 million people in Syria are living in refugee camps, where social distancing is impossible.
EDIT: Meanwhile in Italy, the number of dead in 24h yet again increased. In the past 24h, nearly 800 people died, bringing the total death toll up to 5476.
One third of all the corona dead in the world are now in Italy.
60 thousand people have now been tested positive, of whom 7024 have recovered.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 03:50:23 pm
Actually the worst moment these days. If you happen to draw an unlucky card and be one of the porcentually few but in absolute numbers huge number of people with complications and need of medical attention....Today I found myself thinking that the sky looked bigger than usual, and the reason for that just hit me: Due to nearly all flights being cancelled, there are no contrails anymore.Over here I can smell the difference. The air has become that much cleaner.
The cynical part of me thinks that I should take advantage and try to catch the virus right now, before we get back to polluting the air YOLO style.
I think we all need to be careful overall. Once this is done, we´ll still need to be careful. But these next few weeks will be the worst.
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2020, 03:58:21 pm
On social media, trolls have spread a fake message stating that tonight, all streets will be locked down for a joint operation between police and air force to 'decontaminate the entire country'.
Because the message is shown with the official police logo, police deemed it nescessary to issue the warning.
Post by: Ulfarr on March 22, 2020, 04:20:22 pm
Really, it's for the best. We have to stop this.
I just hope that it will be enough.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 04:58:09 pm
Me too.Really, it's for the best. We have to stop this.
I just hope that it will be enough.
I cried yesterday when I heard the Italians had to change tracks because their measurrs werent working fast enough
Post by: Max™ on March 22, 2020, 05:59:42 pm
The next few weeks are probably when we'll be able to really appreciate exactly how badly various countries like mine have screwed this up, we're just coming up on the window where the early asymptomatic spreaders and their victims are going to become very alarmingly visible, but we're still a couple of transmission steps off from what I fear the full pre-action count is going to wind up at.
Over here we're still so behind we're having to prioritize testing the most obvious cases in basically every state still, so any suggestion that we might have a true sense of scale on just the direct effects of the virus yet is laughably incorrect.
Laughable because otherwise you just kinda want to break down in big heaving sobs that despite every effort being taken by turdbaby to ignore, deny, and spin the numbers somehow... reality is leaking in past his dumbfuckery field because no matter how utterly incapable of critical thinking and basic human decency the shitrag and his supporters are--levels of terribleness previously unseen outside of the shittiest corners of 4chan--it pales in comparison to the sheer horrifying mass of confirmed cases which are just the pale yet black and dimly glittering bits of a submerged deathberg that extends so far into the abyss below we can't even get properly frightened over captain turdfuck gleefully steering into it.
Yet we can all rest assured that while we are currently piling into lifeboats hoping later we get picked up by a rescue ship, the flaccid orange heap of vomit will proudly claim he saved everyone, that we can all relax and party, and turn the ship right back around towards the deathberg so he can ram it this time by making sure people feel safe resuming normal contact while we're still hundreds of millions of cases away from herd immunity and best case a year from a vaccine.
...then you have to consider the economic effects that mean when survivors do finally make it back to shore, it might be on fire.
Sorry to be a huge downer but this is a kindness, better to expect the worst and turn out wrong than hope blindly in the face of horrific facts.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 06:12:39 pm
Oh dear, an optimistic viewpoint... I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but... here I go:I understand very well. I'm appalled by what Trump and Boris Johnson are doing to manage this. Utterly appalled.
The next few weeks are probably when we'll be able to really appreciate exactly how badly various countries like mine have screwed this up, we're just coming up on the window where the early asymptomatic spreaders and their victims are going to become very alarmingly visible, but we're still a couple of transmission steps off from what I fear the full pre-action count is going to wind up at.
Over here we're still so behind we're having to prioritize testing the most obvious cases in basically every state still, so any suggestion that we might have a true sense of scale on just the direct effects of the virus yet is laughably incorrect.
Laughable because otherwise you just kinda want to break down in big heaving sobs that despite every effort being taken by turdbaby to ignore, deny, and spin the numbers somehow... reality is leaking in past his dumbfuckery field because no matter how utterly incapable of critical thinking and basic human decency the shitrag and his supporters are--levels of terribleness previously unseen outside of the shittiest corners of 4chan--it pales in comparison to the sheer horrifying mass of confirmed cases which are just the pale yet black and dimly glittering bits of a submerged deathberg that extends so far into the abyss below we can't even get properly frightened over captain turdfuck gleefully steering into it.
Yet we can all rest assured that while we are currently piling into lifeboats hoping later we get picked up by a rescue ship, the flaccid orange heap of vomit will proudly claim he saved everyone, that we can all relax and party, and turn the ship right back around towards the deathberg so he can ram it this time by making sure people feel safe resuming normal contact while we're still hundreds of millions of cases away from herd immunity and best case a year from a vaccine.
...then you have to consider the economic effects that mean when survivors do finally make it back to shore, it might be on fire.
Sorry to be a huge downer but this is a kindness, better to expect the worst and turn out wrong than hope blindly in the face of horrific facts.
Mind you, the situation here is bad enough. It frightens me and creates a lot of uncertainity. I try not to think too much about it. And I try not to think too much about what will happen in the US and UK because it's too awful to consider :'(
Post by: Max™ on March 22, 2020, 06:41:07 pm
I was concerned about this in late jan/early feb, I was scared in late feb but torn between relief that Trump is going to fuck himself over and horror over the damage it is going to do, by early march the helpless state between outrage and despondency was starting to set in, now I'm at a point where I can let things sink in without wanting to puke so badly I can't control it because I've been grieving beforehand--and grew up glaring hatefully at a psychopath abusing my mother while planning all the gruesome things I would have to do to stop him for good--so my tolerance for awfulness and evil is pretty goddamn high but I don't think I could have handled any of this if I had ever truly hoped it might turn out ok.
The idea that anybody out there is hopeful this will end up being over at any point this year or maybe it won't be that bad?
That makes my stomach clench up and hurt, which I suppose is a sign that I'm still a good person deep down somewhere, because I ache for people I'll never know and the loss of whatever innocence they might have had left remains upsetting though the monster in me wants to watch the fuckbags letting this happen suffer as they drown in their own lungs so I could tell them not to worry, help is on the way, they're going to be fine... before walking over to the door, turning out the light, quietly closing the door behind me, and nailing it shut.
Post by: Frumple on March 22, 2020, 06:56:52 pm
Post by: mko on March 22, 2020, 07:00:09 pm
Not sure whatever it is case of "China numbers are 100% false" paranoia or "we are not invading Ukraine" blatant lies case. I suspect second, with Olympic-in-Sochi level of falsifying of results[1] but it is a pure guess. Maybe their initial closure of border with China and rolling out testing worked and there is no need to lie?
Officially - 367 cases, some recoveries, 0 deaths.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Russia
Coronavirus testing in Russia is provided by a single lab in Novosibirsk.
[1] Russia's national anti-doping laboratory was coordinating doping programs and falsifying test results, urine samples in Sochi were replaced to hide a blatant doping. "Systematic doping in Russian sports has resulted in 47 Olympic and tens of world championships medals being stripped from Russian athletes — the most of any country, more than four times the number of the runner-up, and more than 30% of the global total. Russia also have the most athletes that were caught doping at the Olympic Games, with more than 200." See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doping_in_Russia - I recommend Icarus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icarus_(2017_film)) - AFAIK available on Netflix
Their official (even accredited) testing results are not really trustworthy.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2020, 07:02:33 pm
You misunderstand. I was hoping that MAYBE we are flattening the curve in my immediate area, and maybe my country overall. And thus if everything goes well maybe the lockdown will stop in a couple of months.
The idea that anybody out there is hopeful this will end up being over at any point this year or maybe it won't be that bad?
It doesn't mean it's over. What follows is society more or less working at a normal rate, but with social distancing, face masks everywhere, and close COVID monitoring, possibly random testing, to quarantine cases as soon as they pop up and relock as soon as there is any suggestion that there might be another spurt.
Really this is all about preventing the healthcare services from being overrun, little else. Covid will still be spinning around. :(
I think we really really need to make people aware that these images that we see in Tokyo? People wearing face masks often, esp in public transport, even if there is no pandemic warning?
That's our new reality. That's us now. TBH I think we should probably consider greeting people through bowing like in Asian cultures rather than shaking hands. I think by now we're all aware that the risk of the person you're greeting having a knife is far lower than the risk of having something contagious, so the former is more practical than the latter.
Post by: Frumple on March 22, 2020, 07:41:27 pm
In less specific fronts, the latest relief bill in the US failed to even make cloture, thanks in part to a handful of GOP senators now being quarantined after testing positive for covid. So there's that. E: Also the bill was apparently pretty shit anyway, so I guess no actual loss there for the general american public *shrugs*
Post by: mko on March 22, 2020, 08:15:13 pm
14-18 months to finish rolling out a vaccineThis is extremely optimistic.
I think we really really need to make people aware that these images that we see in Tokyo? People wearing face masks often, esp in public transport, even if there is no pandemic warning?It may be a good idea. Is there a decent chance that it would reduce death ratio from also other diseases?
That's our new reality. That's us now. TBH I think we should probably consider greeting people through bowing like in Asian cultures rather than shaking hands. I think by now we're all aware that the risk of the person you're greeting having a knife is far lower than the risk of having something contagious, so the former is more practical than the latter.
Post by: Reelya on March 22, 2020, 08:20:55 pm
Think about it, if the mask is effective to reduce the amount of droplets getting out when a sick person coughs/sneezes, then by any reasonable logic, they're also effective stopping the (many less) droplets getting in.
The argument that "the pores on the masks are too large to stop something as small as a virus" is bullshit logic basically. Most respiratory viruses aren't just traveling by themselves, they're in expelled droplets, which are large enough to be stopped.
They're also effective at preventing you from randomly touching your face.
Post by: Rolan7 on March 22, 2020, 08:34:57 pm
How much they help against *receiving* the virus is very questionable though because: if the vector is airborne particles - from a cough or sneeze - you would need goggles as well. This is why professionals keep suggesting masks for infected people, not uninfected.
The virus-laden droplets "live" for a couple days on surfaces people touch, and then people touch their eyes/nose/mouth. This is why hand washing is the most helpful measure. Being too close to an asymptomatic carrier's respiration is also bad, but a cloth mask isn't going to save you from that.
Always think before touching your face!
Post by: Frumple on March 22, 2020, 08:36:05 pm
Post by: ZBridges on March 22, 2020, 08:40:37 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 22, 2020, 08:48:19 pm
Good joke. Everybody laughs darkly. Curtains.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 22, 2020, 08:48:56 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-21/one-italian-town-is-bucking-the-countrys-coronavirus-curve/12075048)
Test the entire population then quarantine those who return positive results. Seems to have been a successful recipe at the epicentre of the european breakout.
(Also note the figure of 3% of the towns population being infected by the virus at the point where the first death - in Italy - occurred. That's why everyone needs to be tested.)
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 04:39:00 am
There are not enough tests available for lack of materials.
This might have something to do with China ramping up it's testing capacity to 1.5 million a day a few weeks ago, using up all global supplies.
There are no face masks available.
Our government is even asking citizens who own facemask not to use them but instead donate them to hospitals so doctors can use them, hospitals are running out.
Post by: Quarque on March 23, 2020, 04:57:59 am
There are not enough tests available for lack of materials.Is it fair to blame China for lack of testing materials? Or are Western countries to blame themselves for not ramping up production in time? In South-Korea they somehow managed what the West could not: to test every person who sneezes.
This might have something to do with China ramping up it's testing capacity to 1.5 million a day a few weeks ago, using up all global supplies.
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 05:05:32 am
Hard to ramp up production if you don't have the factories that make them in the first place.
They're also very specific and specialized goods. You can't just easily retool a factory to make them, that takes weeks if not months.
Post by: wierd on March 23, 2020, 05:07:30 am
So, basically, SK succeeds where we in the US fails, because they have their fucking act together, and we don't. Amazing how that works.
Meanwhile, we have old people refusing to stay home, thinking rules do not apply to them, that they are magical, that the disease will not get them, that they cannot be spreading it unknowingly, et al--- and people getting infected in fucking droves.
GO TEAM WESTERN CULTURE. HURRAH.
/s
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 05:15:37 am
By the time the virus started hitting the western world, China had ramped up testing so much that rescources were already scarce..
Can't blame them for that, but we hardly can blame ourselves either, because the scale of this pandemic has not been seen before in history.
So saying 'this is how we should have done it' is just silly. It has never been an option.
Post by: wierd on March 23, 2020, 05:18:19 am
1918 spanish flu.
We just did not have testing equipment, nor as advanced medicine then. similar fatality rates though. We just have a freaking shitload more total people, and so total deaths are higher. Proportional percentages, the estimated fatality rates are similar. (~2%)
Some key datapoints
Spanish Flu:
Key symptoms: fever, nausea, aches, diarrhea
First detection: March 1918
Global cases: 500 million
Global deaths: over 50 million (675,000 in the United States); the death rate was around 2 percent
Transmission: spread through respiratory droplets
Most affected groups: otherwise healthy adults ages 20 to 40
Treatments available: none; antibiotics or antivirals did not yet exist
Vaccines available: none
End of pandemic: summer 1919; mostly due to deaths and higher immunity levels
Novel COVID 19
Key symptoms: cough, fever, shortness of breath; 80 percent of cases are mild
First detection: December 2019 in Wuhan, China
Global cases to date: Over 127,000 cases
Global deaths to date: Over 4,700; the global death rate is estimated at 3.4 percentTrusted Source, but certain areas are seeing a death rate of just 0.4 percent
Transmission: spreads through respiratory droplets along with feces and other bodily secretions; each person passes it to 2.2 others which will likely fall as containment and quarantine efforts increase
Most affected groups: adults over 65 with underlying health conditions; children seem to be spared and are experiencing milder symptoms (in China, children account for just 2.4 percent of cases)
Treatments available: none; supportive care is provided, pain relievers and fever reducers can alleviate symptoms, and antibiotics can help treat secondary bacterial pneumonia and antivirals used with other viruses are being administered to help with recovery
Vaccines available: none yet; a vaccine will likely be ready in about one year
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 05:23:10 am
There aren't many people from 1918 around these days, let alone anyone old enough in that time to have experienced it.
Yesterday I saw someone in the supermarket wearing a face mask. Actually the first person I ever saw irl wearing such a thing. I was tempted to hit him in the face and tell him to donate it to the hospital, but I let it pass.
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 05:27:23 am
There might never be a vaccine.
There's still no vaccines for many other corona virusses, like the ones responsible for common cold.
Post by: Quarque on March 23, 2020, 05:41:45 am
Don't hold your breath for a vaccine being ready in about a year.Holding your breath is not advisable in any case. :P
(sorry, could not resist making bad joke)
In any case, what you're saying about China buying up supplies sounds plausible, but I am hesitant to believe that this is the real reason for the current lack of tests without more evidence. Do you have a link, maybe?
I live in Holland, too. I have long been sceptical about the severity of this virus, because I got my information from the RIVM. I get the impression they have underestimated the problem. Or perhaps they weren't effective in getting politicians to get to act in time, I'm not sure. But looking at the response from the West as a whole reminds me of this scene from Yes, Minister:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak
edit, for those who don't like clicking links, the conversation:
Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage one, we say nothing is going to happen.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.”
Sir Richard Wharton: “In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there’s nothing we can do.”
Sir Humphrey Appleby: “Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it’s too late now.”
Post by: itisnotlogical on March 23, 2020, 05:46:35 am
Okay, okay, the worst pandemic any of us have ever seen.
There aren't many people from 1918 around these days, let alone anyone old enough in that time to have experienced it.
Yesterday I saw someone in the supermarket wearing a face mask. Actually the first person I ever saw irl wearing such a thing. I was tempted to hit him in the face and tell him to donate it to the hospital, but I let it pass.
I mean, he could be immunocompromised. Unless there's a miraculous change in my labs tomorrow, it's so bad that I basically only leave the house for doctor's appointments or if it's on fire. On the outside I look healthy but I am extremely at risk, not just from coronavirus. I'm lucky that I have people around to go outside for me, the person you mention may not be.
Post by: delphonso on March 23, 2020, 05:50:53 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 05:58:15 am
In any case, what you're saying about China buying up supplies sounds plausible, but I am hesitant to believe that this is the real reason for the current lack of tests without more evidence. Do you have a link, maybe?De Volkskrant reported two - three weeks ago that China had ramped up testing capacity to 1.5 million per day.
China didn't need to buy up the supplies, they produce them. They just stopped export.
Right now they are exporting some materials again, but by far not enough to cope with demand.
In Europe, Germany also has some production capacity, but not enough for sharing more than a 'druppel op een gloeiende plaat'.
As it stands, we have just enough tests to test medical staff with mild symptoms, and patients with severe symptoms. Nowhere near enough to start testing the general population in any case.
Post by: Reelya on March 23, 2020, 06:24:06 am
Meanwhile in the USA, over 9000 new cases in a day, hitting 33546, so the saturday slowdown was just a temporary hiccup on the shoot for the moon for cases. USA is now a fairly solid #3 for cases, behind only China and Italy. USA should shoot past China this week.
So, uh ... I was saying 10,000 by the weekend, but that was way off: it's gonna be around 40-45000.
If the same exponential growth rate continues from the past 2 week period, then I have to point out that you'll be hitting 2 million confirmed cases two Saturdays from now, and basically half the country in a month. But that would really only be constrained by the number of tests you can administer.
BTW I've heard news about Americans who've dropped dead from the virus in their own homes waiting for the test results. That's good, I guess: saves a hospital bed. After all, home healthcare is the best healthcare!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 06:24:38 am
How to make your own facemask. This thing was made by Shenzen's university
https://youtu.be/aNjpH5lBZ8w
My take is that every bit helps. So if you don't have one, even a DIY hack might lessen your odds.
And if you already have it and dont know it, it will halt spread
By the way: remember: in hospitals what they need are FFP2 and 3 masks. Don't freak out at people with regular masks. For that matter dont freak out at the odd one who was lucky enough to get a FFP3 mask, as a single one doesnt change anything, what are needed are regular shipments
Post by: wierd on March 23, 2020, 07:14:26 am
(wonders if hardware store grade would work..)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 23, 2020, 07:20:05 am
Meanwhile in the USA, over 9000 new cases in a dayMost of the case numbers are coming from New York. Out of about 35,000 total cases in the US 16,900 cases are New York cases. In second place is Washington state, with about 2,000 cases.
The state has been more on the ball with testing folk then other states, so the numbers reflect that.
So does the sheer density of Manhattan+ being an international travel hub.
All nonessential are at 100% workplace work from home mandate as of last night but there were still swaths of people congregating in parks like nothing was happening.
Meanwhile, the Army Corp of Engineers are turning the Javits convention center (Comic Con and the Auto Show were held here) into a thousand bed field hospital .
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 07:23:05 am
The problem with all this is that, indeed, the manufactury of all this shit was exported to China and now every European country is struggling.
Tbh before you blame the Chinese remember they had their own covid crisis. And that Germany and France tried to do the same before the EU intervened and warned that it was unwise to do that (Italy is doing poorly *now* but it will recover eventually. It might be that by then it's Germsny or France in need of medical supplies). Also remember that Chinese material shipments are on their way now. Its just on the other side of the world.
What is clear is that relying so much in "Just in time'" internstional supply chains doesn't work very well for strategic industries in times of crisis. Many things will need to be rethought
Post by: delphonso on March 23, 2020, 07:24:34 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 07:32:07 am
Also, we have 1.4 billion people to look out for. Those tests are just sitting in warehouses.Indeed. Even with the capacity to test 1.5 million people a day, it would still take nearly 3 years to test everyone in China.
Post by: Frumple on March 23, 2020, 07:40:02 am
Don't hold your breath for a vaccine being ready in about a year.Untrue on like several fronts. CoV stuff only accounts for a fraction of the slew of viruses that causes "the" common cold (which is largely why not much has been done on that front, a cold vaccine would be like a dozen different vaccines, not one, and folks haven't been deciding the resource/return ratio was good enough... particularly for the virus family that only accounts for a minority of cases), and there's explicitly been vaccines made for coronaviruses before -- it's just they're for CoV varieties that target non-humans, hence why we have cow and dog CoV vaccines currently in existence.
There might never be a vaccine.
There's still no vaccines for many other corona virusses, like the ones responsible for common cold.
The year or so is probably accurate. If we didn't care about possible side effects we could have vaccines out, like, now, or in very short order. Most of the time involved with that 14 or so months is testing, to make sure the vaccines produced don't have significant negative effects.
Post by: sluissa on March 23, 2020, 07:56:05 am
While there's been plenty of fibbing going on (mostly in an attempt to reduce panic buying), I have seen suggestions from various places that while the high grade masks are necessary for workers who are around this stuff all day like medical workers and first responders, if you're just talking about a run to the store to pick up some supplies, even just something like a cotton t-shirt wrapped around the face can drastically reduce your chances of catching it/spreading it.
Probably worth doing if you have access to nothing better, and probably the best chance you'll ever get to be a t-shirt ninja.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Cthulhu on March 23, 2020, 08:03:16 am
Don't hold your breath for a vaccine being ready in about a year.Untrue on like several fronts. CoV stuff only accounts for a fraction of the slew of viruses that causes "the" common cold (which is largely why not much has been done on that front, a cold vaccine would be like a dozen different vaccines, not one, and folks haven't been deciding the resource/return ratio was good enough... particularly for the virus family that only accounts for a minority of cases), and there's explicitly been vaccines made for coronaviruses before -- it's just they're for CoV varieties that target non-humans, hence why we have cow and dog CoV vaccines currently in existence.
There might never be a vaccine.
There's still no vaccines for many other corona virusses, like the ones responsible for common cold.
The year or so is probably accurate. If we didn't care about possible side effects we could have vaccines out, like, now, or in very short order. Most of the time involved with that 14 or so months is testing, to make sure the vaccines produced don't have significant negative effects.
Speaking of which, if you're not scared enough yet, they've observed antibody-dependent enhancement in CoV-vaccinated cats.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 08:09:45 am
Re: Home made masks.That's my thought as well.
While there's been plenty of fibbing going on (mostly in an attempt to reduce panic buying), I have seen suggestions from various places that while the high grade masks are necessary for workers who are around this stuff all day like medical workers and first responders, if you're just talking about a run to the store to pick up some supplies, even just something like a cotton t-shirt wrapped around the face can drastically reduce your chances of catching it/spreading it.
Probably worth doing if you have access to nothing better, and probably the best chance you'll ever get to be a t-shirt ninja.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
And if you have it w/o knowing you'll spread it less.
I think maska are a civic duty now
Post by: feelotraveller on March 23, 2020, 08:22:15 am
There are not enough tests available for lack of materials.
Yes but that was (and still is? not sure) a solvable problem.* So much for 'the art of the possible'.
(* Though as far as I can tell the limitation is not in 'materials' but sheer production capacity.
If items in the chain are in short supply, e.g.
Quote
lysis fluids, test tube racks, plastic microplatforms to isolate RNA, pipette tips and waddingsthat again is a solvable problem and just needed a little anticipation in increasing production - or having a decent stockpile to start with.
)
Post by: Bralbaard on March 23, 2020, 08:52:50 am
I think maska are a civic duty now
Depending on where you live, probably. In the Netherlands it is kind of seen as a civic duty to -not- get a mask. Goverment has made it clear masks are intended for hospitals, not individuals, as we have far too few.
Sure crafting your own might solve that, but they can hardly expect everybody to craft their own masks. For now people are not even willing to stay indoors and practice social distancing.
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 09:03:07 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 09:15:15 am
Well. I attached a DIY video. Some other person attached how to do a tshirt bandana. Its not that hard.I think maska are a civic duty now
Depending on where you live, probably. In the Netherlands it is kind of seen as a civic duty to -not- get a mask. Goverment has made it clear masks are intended for hospitals, not individuals, as we have far too few.
Sure crafting your own might solve that, but they can hardly expect everybody to craft their own masks. For now people are not even willing to stay indoors and practice social distancing.
Re: noncompliers. That happens EVERYWHERE. Thats why lockdowns have to be as harsh as possible, and enforced.
Here in Spain I think we should go harder. Full lockdown on the most affected cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Vitoria-Gasteiz), I say.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 23, 2020, 09:16:28 am
Depending on where you live, probably. In the Netherlands it is kind of seen as a civic duty to -not- get a mask. Goverment has made it clear masks are intended for hospitals, not individuals, as we have far too few.
Sure crafting your own might solve that, but they can hardly expect everybody to craft their own masks. For now people are not even willing to stay indoors and practice social distancing.
One upside for Australians is that the recent bushfire season - the previous catastrophe of the capitalist system of crisis - left many of us well equipped with facemasks. :D
Edit: although the respiratory damage caused by the previous event does make for worry about the virus having fertile fields to plough...
Post by: Reelya on March 23, 2020, 09:33:21 am
Though they should have some other work for us by "wed or thu". My money's on Thursday.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 23, 2020, 09:40:54 am
Well. I attached a DIY video. Some other person attached how to do a tshirt bandana. Its not that hard.I think maska are a civic duty now
Depending on where you live, probably. In the Netherlands it is kind of seen as a civic duty to -not- get a mask. Goverment has made it clear masks are intended for hospitals, not individuals, as we have far too few.
Sure crafting your own might solve that, but they can hardly expect everybody to craft their own masks. For now people are not even willing to stay indoors and practice social distancing.
Re: noncompliers. That happens EVERYWHERE. Thats why lockdowns have to be as harsh as possible, and enforced.
Here in Spain I think we should go harder. Full lockdown on the most affected cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Vitoria-Gasteiz), I say.
Yes, I agree that people should wear masks if possible, but realistically, with the current goverment advice, people are not going to do this. It is being actively discouraged. Also the advantages of masks are being downplayed. (everybody will be fine if you just wash hands and stay 1.5 meters away from other people, which for a resporatory virus, may not be enough). It will take a massive information campaing to suddenly convince people of the opposite, and even have them start crafting masks.
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 10:04:24 am
Bars, cafes, restaurants all stayed open.
People did all wear facemasks though, so perhaps they are more important than our government has been telling us.
Or maybe not, because the other thing SK did was test everyone and trace and test all the contacts of those infected using phone records, CCTV images and public transport card records, and when infected, quaratined those.
Which is something we can't, because, no tests available.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 10:13:21 am
South Korea didn't have full lockdown.They are. Our goverments dropped the ball bad. You can't trust shit on the news anymore.
Bars, cafes, restaurants all stayed open.
People did all wear facemasks though, so perhaps they are more important than our government has been telling us.
The reason goverments are doing this is that they are short of stocks as it is. Likewise they started to say on TV that hydroalcoholic gel on supermarkets "might not be enough to fight covid19" . do you think that's actually true? I think a good clue to the real answer is that they put the army up to manufacturing that gel en masse. It does work. They just want to buy it themselves.
As to which is the better use for all this? It.mighr be that many of these things (commercial facemasks, gel, whatnot) get more mileage in hospitals (I'd totally advise to get even a DIY at least and I'm sending the shenzen videos around. You should too). The crux of the matter is that western goverments, after years of cutting down on healthcare, and delocalizing industry in favor of global supply chains, are now in trouble, and what's worse, covering up with lies. They actually have been lying nonstop since this shitfest began.
If I survive this, I honestly doubt I'll be able to watch the news without mistrusting everything that is said.
It might not be a bad custom to acquire either.
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2020, 10:18:24 am
People will think you are a robber or terrorist.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 23, 2020, 10:18:54 am
Russian disinfo bots and 4chan trolls undermining our epistemology, 'post-truth,' all that shit we've been hearing about constantly for years, turns out the call is coming from inside the house.
Hope this guy finishes 2020 working at a gas station. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/opinion/international-world/coronavirus-fear.html)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 10:31:15 am
I mean I'm not surprised. I'm not at all confident that we won't end up with rationing in Spain. And Spain is a net food exporter. So given that the UK's food supply was already in question around Brexit.... welp.
Cheers everyone. :(
Post by: Rolan7 on March 23, 2020, 10:43:49 am
Every object is still suspect, so handwashing is still the best defense. But since so many people are asymptomatic carriers, covering one's mouth is also helpful. The t-shirt method is cool and all, but I'll be using a scarf.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 10:52:22 am
Cloth and DIY masks aren't good protection since the droplets can enter through the eyes, though there is evidence that they help. The certainly help on infected people - still not complete protection, but reduces the range at least.Thats what I mean. Even though you could still get it through eye droplets its better than being able to get it in the mouth as well.
Every object is still suspect, so handwashing is still the best defense. But since so many people are asymptomatic carriers, covering one's mouth is also helpful. The t-shirt method is cool and all, but I'll be using a scarf.
Really this is all about stacking the odds.
Post by: McTraveller on March 23, 2020, 10:57:15 am
Sadly Mr. Gilbert does not own my company's building. We are having a company meeting later today where we find out about some "drastic" cost cutting measures.
Post by: sluissa on March 23, 2020, 01:14:26 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on March 23, 2020, 01:16:21 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 23, 2020, 01:17:21 pm
Post by: scriver on March 23, 2020, 01:32:16 pm
It's the dumb seatbelt argument all over again. Do people still die even when wearing seatbelts in cars? Yes. But it does help, so why wouldn't you if you have the option? And yet people still don't wear their seatbelts.
I want to be thrown clear of the virus
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 01:38:22 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 23, 2020, 01:43:10 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 23, 2020, 02:12:41 pm
They tell you to wear masks so the straps will snap your neck if you sneeze, it's a cheaper payout than just being injured, like people used to be by most viruses.It's the dumb seatbelt argument all over again. Do people still die even when wearing seatbelts in cars? Yes. But it does help, so why wouldn't you if you have the option? And yet people still don't wear their seatbelts.
I want to be thrown clear of the virus
Post by: Iduno on March 23, 2020, 02:26:53 pm
They tell you to wear masks so the straps will snap your neck if you sneeze, it's a cheaper payout than just being injured, like people used to be by most viruses.It's the dumb seatbelt argument all over again. Do people still die even when wearing seatbelts in cars? Yes. But it does help, so why wouldn't you if you have the option? And yet people still don't wear their seatbelts.
I want to be thrown clear of the virus
I know a guy, and they said the reason he wasn't injured in his virus is because he wasn't wearing a mask.
Post by: pisskop on March 23, 2020, 05:11:17 pm
Post by: TD1 on March 23, 2020, 05:20:58 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 23, 2020, 06:14:48 pm
South Korea didn't have full lockdown.Yeah, SK has managed as well as they have by going hardcore panopticon, super aggro on testing, and locking down people who turned up positive. So they've actually been fairly confident they're keeping track of things and keeping the virus under control. If you legitimately have those sorts of conditions, full lockdown isn't as necessary.
Bars, cafes, restaurants all stayed open.
People did all wear facemasks though, so perhaps they are more important than our government has been telling us.
Or maybe not, because the other thing SK did was test everyone and trace and test all the contacts of those infected using phone records, CCTV images and public transport card records, and when infected, quaratined those.
Which is something we can't, because, no tests available.
Meanwhile, you have the United 'I'm not responsible, also what's this testing thing' States or the United 'herd immunity lol' Kingdom, or all the other places... not... doing things like SK did. Basically they're bleeding out, so now you tourniquet and hope they live long enough a doctor can do something about it :-\
Post by: Teneb on March 23, 2020, 07:30:03 pm
Pretty much this.South Korea didn't have full lockdown.Yeah, SK has managed as well as they have by going hardcore panopticon, super aggro on testing, and locking down people who turned up positive. So they've actually been fairly confident they're keeping track of things and keeping the virus under control. If you legitimately have those sorts of conditions, full lockdown isn't as necessary.
Bars, cafes, restaurants all stayed open.
People did all wear facemasks though, so perhaps they are more important than our government has been telling us.
Or maybe not, because the other thing SK did was test everyone and trace and test all the contacts of those infected using phone records, CCTV images and public transport card records, and when infected, quaratined those.
Which is something we can't, because, no tests available.
Meanwhile, you have the United 'I'm not responsible, also what's this testing thing' States or the United 'herd immunity lol' Kingdom, or all the other places... not... doing things like SK did. Basically they're bleeding out, so now you tourniquet and hope they live long enough a doctor can do something about it :-\
I'm kind of lucky to be living in the state of Rio de Janeiro, because uh... it and a few other states are the only ones doing anything about it, and RJ is the one going down harder on the disease. For instance: it's now almost impossible to leave a city (except by walking, I guess - though the geography hampers that) unless you can convince the cops you got a damn good reason to.
Meanwhile... the president is mocking the disease as "a little flu" and saying that the media is sensationalizing it. Oh, and also he shat out a decree that for 4 months will suspend the hard-won worker right of having your contract terminated for no reason.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 23, 2020, 07:51:39 pm
Post by: hector13 on March 23, 2020, 09:06:43 pm
I got a letter from my work just in case I get pulled over though, which is amusing considering how entirely unessential I am.
Post by: ZBridges on March 23, 2020, 09:09:28 pm
I need a haircut, but I guess I won't be getting one for a while.
Post by: pisskop on March 23, 2020, 09:33:55 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on March 23, 2020, 09:50:34 pm
I was reading about the 1918 glu and now I have another bout of terror
I have begun audibly holding my breath as covid hits Syria (and Turkey, Iraq).
Post by: delphonso on March 23, 2020, 10:40:22 pm
Wisconsin is doing a weird shelter-where-you-are type thing starting tomorrow. All non-essential businesses should close, evidently my wife and I work in essential jobs though so no worry so far on the money front.
Oh hey, fellow Wisconsinite. My family still lives there, so I've been glad to hear that the state is taking it pretty seriously. The top half of the state should be fine - not enough population density to really risk much spreading.
I do wonder how people in the cities will handle it. A missed paycheck or two would have put me out in the streets when I lived there.
Post by: Frumple on March 23, 2020, 10:43:56 pm
Don't forget brazil/south america and africa, home of millions of immunocompromised folks. And russia. Australia. Look, the shit's just flat global at this point, it's everywhere.I was reading about the 1918 glu and now I have another bout of terror
I have begun audibly holding my breath as covid hits Syria (and Turkey, Iraq).
But haha yeah Syria's probably fucked, what was it like three ICU beds in the country or something thanks to fighting blowing up hospitals? Crow plague likely gonna' reap real hard there.
Post by: coalboat on March 24, 2020, 02:09:37 am
Situation in Syria and African is likely not good.
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 04:01:55 am
All gatherings and events, regardless of size, are forbidden until the 1st of June (instead of 6 april).
It is illegal to come together in public with more than 3 people.
This does not include children, children are still allowed to group up and play football.
Non-compliance will lead to a 400 euro fine for private persons, or 4000 euros for companies.
Furthermore it is advised not to let more than 3 visitors into your house.
The latter will not be enforced, what people do in their own homes is their private business.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 04:09:11 am
The Dutch government imposed further restrictions yesterday evening.
All gatherings and events, regardless of size, are forbidden until the 1st of June (instead of 6 april).
It is illegal to come together in public with more than 3 people.
This does not include children, children are still allowed to group up and play football.
Non-compliance will lead to a 400 euro fine for private persons, or 4000 euros for companies.
Furthermore it is advised not to let more than 3 visitors into your house.
The latter will not be enforced, what people do in their own homes is their private business.
TBH I think gatherings, festivities and meetings will be off for the foreseeable future. Things are not going to be normal after this.
In other news:
It seems Italy might finally over the curve
Number of daily dead coming down for the last few days. I think the reason they tightened the restrictions was so that people didn't relax when they noticed the trend. Supposedly we're supposed to follow them by a week, and indeed our own guesstimate is for around the 30th. We'll see
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 04:42:43 am
They deem abortion to be an unnescessary strain on the taxed healthcare system.
Doctors that continue with abortions can get fined, or sent to jail for 180 days.
So far, abortion clinics refuse to comply and stay open.
EDIT: Our government just cancelled this year's high school exams.
All students whose grades so far are sufficient are given a free pass to start their intermediate vocational education / higher vocational education / university when the new school year starts.
Post by: Reelya on March 24, 2020, 05:00:02 am
Ohio and Texas cancel abortion rights.
They deem abortion to be an unnescessary strain on the taxed healthcare system.
Oh righto ::) and having a baby isn't any strain on the health system at all, luckily.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 05:04:36 am
To be fair that would happen a good deal later.... but yeah I'm dubious about their motivations. Though I see a point in cancelling as many interventions as possible.Ohio and Texas cancel abortion rights.
They deem abortion to be an unnescessary strain on the taxed healthcare system.
Oh righto ::) and having a baby isn't any strain on the health system at all, luckily.
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 05:08:32 am
To be fair that would happen a good deal later.... but yeah I'm dubious about their motivations. Though I see a point in cancelling as many interventions as possible.On that topic, I think we can expect a worldwide baby boom in about 8-9 months, with everyone locked in their homes and doctors too busy to prescribe the pill.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 05:11:17 am
Also a surge of divorces right after the quarantine, I suspect...To be fair that would happen a good deal later.... but yeah I'm dubious about their motivations. Though I see a point in cancelling as many interventions as possible.On that topic, I think we can expect a worldwide baby boom in about 8-9 months, with everyone locked in their homes and doctors too busy to prescribe the pill.
Post by: coalboat on March 24, 2020, 05:22:24 am
Post by: delphonso on March 24, 2020, 05:28:13 am
Ohio and Texas cancel abortion rights.
They deem abortion to be an unnescessary strain on the taxed healthcare system.
Oh righto ::) and having a baby isn't any strain on the health system at all, luckily.
Nor is sending a doctor away for 6 months.
Post by: Jimmy on March 24, 2020, 05:39:45 am
I work in healthcare, as a community Pharmacist.
It looks like the virus has finally reached my town.
I have a friend who's in the morgue at the local hospital. We're seeing our first deaths now.
They should be announcing it officially in a few days to prevent panic and give us time to prepare.
I'm doing what I can to protect my team. It's hard when access to basic medical supplies are so low now.
I've been trying to take the riskiest jobs personally where I can, like vaccinations. No sense spreading risk across my other staff if I can help it.
I hope my wife and kids will be okay.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 05:46:02 am
I live in Australia.I'm sorry
I work in healthcare, as a community Pharmacist.
It looks like the virus has finally reached my town.
I have a friend who's in the morgue at the local hospital. We're seeing our first deaths now.
They should be announcing it officially in a few days to prevent panic and give us time to prepare.
I'm doing what I can to protect my team. It's hard when access to basic medical supplies are so low now.
I've been trying to take the riskiest jobs personally where I can, like vaccinations. No sense spreading risk across my other staff if I can help it.
I hope my wife and kids will be okay.
Post by: Jimmy on March 24, 2020, 05:50:17 am
I'm sorryHeh, only 4%, right?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 06:08:34 am
I think that's the conundrum. Any given rando has pretty good odds with covid (maybe even pretty good odds of never even learning he had it). But socially it's utterly destructive.
By extension it can only be fought if everyone is careful. If anyone is doing his own thing... the strenght of quarantines vs covid19 weakens
Post by: Reelya on March 24, 2020, 06:16:37 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/world/americas/coronavirus-mexico-border-migrants.html
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-promises-us-will-open-business-soon-this-country-wasnt-built-shut-down-1493854
Quote
Trump's administration has been touting a 15-day program to help prevent the spread of coronavirus, telling reporters that the White House would look at easing some restrictions at the end of the 15-day timeframe.
A 15 day plan? Woo, color me impressed. The whole thing's going to blow over in 15 days, you heard it here!
Post by: Jimmy on March 24, 2020, 06:27:25 am
Personally, I'm hoping for silent symptoms. If I have mild symptoms, I have an ethical obligation to self-isolate. If I don't, at least I can still keep working.
Post by: Max™ on March 24, 2020, 07:00:17 am
Nobody envies the aysmptomatic carriers for being able to Johnny Applepox all over the place.
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 07:19:56 am
Basically what you are saying is, everybody stay home, including doctors, supermarket workers etcetera, because you just *might* have corona even though you feel fine.
Post by: hector13 on March 24, 2020, 07:26:26 am
People should be staying at home if they can.
Post by: mko on March 24, 2020, 07:37:42 am
In public transport one may no longer stand, only sitting in half of seats is allowed (to limit number of people traveling together).
Going outside in groups larger than 2 will be outlawed (families excluded).
Going outside without good reason - banned (going with dog, going for a walk, going to family member to help, shopping will remain OK. So it is a very mild restriction).
Claims that large scale testing will finally start.
The plan is to switch to South Korea situation, will schools and work open but with COVID reduced using other less harmful methods.
Number of people allowed to take part in funerals, religious ceremonies reduced to 5 + personnel like priest/gravedigger. Reduction from 50.
Up to 5000 PLN (1200 $) for violating rules (more than 2 months of a minimum wage).
Post by: Iduno on March 24, 2020, 07:58:29 am
Also a surge of divorces right after the quarantine, I suspect...To be fair that would happen a good deal later.... but yeah I'm dubious about their motivations. Though I see a point in cancelling as many interventions as possible.On that topic, I think we can expect a worldwide baby boom in about 8-9 months, with everyone locked in their homes and doctors too busy to prescribe the pill.
And
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 08:24:17 am
They now have to suffer the abuse all day every day.
Post by: TD1 on March 24, 2020, 08:29:48 am
Post by: Akura on March 24, 2020, 08:42:30 am
Post by: delphonso on March 24, 2020, 08:50:48 am
Post by: nenjin on March 24, 2020, 09:45:50 am
Post by: McTraveller on March 24, 2020, 10:06:22 am
My "normal" temps always read 97.6-97.9 when taken with a forehead IR thermometer.
Post by: nenjin on March 24, 2020, 10:13:41 am
But if I can't get anything resembling what I'm used to at the grocery store and am just grabbing random consumables.....le panic.
Post by: Akura on March 24, 2020, 10:26:33 am
Where you taking the temperature, bud? A degree lower isn't unusual in armpits or the roof of the mouth.
First one was oral, second was ear. I put the oral one under the tongue, but it's an awkwardly flexible probe so I'm not sure I'm putting it in the correct part of my under-tongue.
Post by: Reelya on March 24, 2020, 11:04:42 am
Post by: TD1 on March 24, 2020, 11:11:33 am
Not that any other system is better, mind. Even an absolutist system run by me would be endangered... by me.
Post by: Reelya on March 24, 2020, 11:44:04 am
* They may have a point here. Russians don't live long enough to get into the danger-zone for coronavirus unlike long-lived Asians.
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 12:00:04 pm
Post by: nenjin on March 24, 2020, 12:02:28 pm
Oh shit, I just chucked on ABC News 24 (Australian ABC) and there's a bit on Cossacks in Russia. The Cossacks have formed anti-coronavirus vigilante forces who are marching around in the streets in some cities, mostly without masks mind you, putting on a show of holy force to show that virus what's what. They're a sort of hardline pro-Putin conservative Christian militia, and their weapons against coronavirus include plentiful supplies of holy water and prayer, and they're saying there won't be an epidemic because Russians be Tough compared to the lowly asiatic immigrants*, and they're God's chosen people more or less.
* They may have a point here. Russians don't live long enough to get into the danger-zone for coronavirus unlike long-lived Asians.
Getting down right medieval. When can we expect the flagellants?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 12:04:57 pm
For that same reason African poor countries might get less severe outbreaks, because less people there reach an age that is at high risk.They have far less hospital capacity too. Again, the rule of the game here is not the virus' deadliness, its how it infects everyone at the same time. By sheer numbers, a significant number of people in those nations will need hospital care. And they have little in that regard in the first place.
Post by: misko27 on March 24, 2020, 12:05:33 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 24, 2020, 12:05:46 pm
They're even worse than the megachurches in the US about this. What I'm saying is, it's now pretty clear that the Great Schism was justified.
Post by: Reelya on March 24, 2020, 12:07:29 pm
The latest news is that authorities in Spain found nursing home patients "abandoned", with some found dead in their beds. So the system is really collapsing, people dying in nursing homes, not tested, no quarantined apparently.
Post by: Iduno on March 24, 2020, 12:27:09 pm
Paranoid asshole stepdad is now making everyone at home take temperature. Given that I've been stuck inside for almost a week now, everyone else even longer, and nobody has had any reasonable possible contact with possible infected for even longer than that, I think this is pretty unreasonable. That said, two different thermometers have also given me a surprisingly low body temperature: 97.6°F for one* and 98.2°F for the other.
My paranoid asshole employer is requiring everyone to take their temperature multiple times a day, even if you're working from home. To prevent you from infecting yourself, I guess.
Guess who lives somewhere where the thermometers are all sold out.
Right now the only thing that worries me is groceries. Isolation? No problem. Services shutdown? I can deal. No fast food/restaurant food/delivery? I'll manage.
But if I can't get anything resembling what I'm used to at the grocery store and am just grabbing random consumables.....le panic.
You can get to a grocery store? I'm hoping the store that sells only-slightly-out-of-date canned goods (which don't become poison right away or anything) isn't closed/sold out.
Yeah, the Orthodox church as a whole seems to have decided that Eucharists, holy water, and possibly priests are all immune to covid since God would never allow corruption of his holy blah blah total insanity
They're even worse than the megachurches in the US about this. What I'm saying is, it's now pretty clear that the Great Schism was justified.
The Catholic Church is needing to agree with Martin Luther on this one. Schadenfreude.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 12:38:56 pm
Watching TV news right now, there's a bit about the Spanish situation, showing people overflowing into the hallways of hospitals, passed out.That newsbit is Spanish army raw propaganda just so that you know. In Madrid the system is fairly saturated, indeed. But the bit about the nursing homes? Here's something that newsbit wont tell you: the funerary service in Madrid IS indeed overwhelmed, and they requested the army (military emergency unit) to help with corpse clearing.
The latest news is that authorities in Spain found nursing home patients "abandoned", with some found dead in their beds. So the system is really collapsing, people dying in nursing homes, not tested, no quarantined apparently.
Now the fuckers are painting themselves as saving old gramps from nursing homes in which they were abandoned, when the truth is that they were not abandoned AT ALL: the workers were still there, working with what little protection they had, and they had been requesting body removal for days.
Likewise, last week they said they had captured a shipment of facemasks (insinuating they were being smuggled in for some black market op) when they were in fact offered freely by a factory in southern Spain.
Yes, the Spanish army brass are largely turds. I'm happy their presence in my homeland is fairly limited and unneeded.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 24, 2020, 12:41:40 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2020, 02:11:34 pm
All it's 1.3 billion inhabitants are forbidden to leave their homes for the next 21 days.
This puts 1/6th of the world's population under lockdown.
How this is going to be enforced in the slums, where people have no suitable houses to stay inside of all day is unclear.
Washing hands or keeping distance is also impossible there, for lack of space and lack of running water. People will still need to go outside and queue for the communal water tap.
Officially, India has 519 infected and 10 dead. It is suspected that actual numbers are much higher.
Post by: Jopax on March 24, 2020, 02:53:09 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 24, 2020, 02:59:15 pm
That's not going into full lockdown, that's saying you'll go into full lockdown without much ability to actually enforce it on a good chunk of your population.But then again, that's true of any lockdown.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 03:11:41 pm
1: remember how the majority of covid19 cases are silent? That it might be 5-10 silent cases for each one you actually see, maybe even more?
Healthcare workers are very exposed and there is a worldwide lack of PPE. Odds are they are ALL infected. A friend of mine who is from Madrid tells me many of her colleagues told her that they are presenting with loss of sense of smell (which is highly suspect of being one of the "underreported cases") and being refused the test.
- the public health asshat who's running the show claimed that all 3500 infectees caught it outside the hospital. So it's not an "occupational condition". Son of a bitch. I have no words. No words. This bastard has been lying nonstop since day one. I'm beating myself up for believing him when he said everything was under control in early march.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 03:15:56 pm
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necrophoresis
Post by: Iduno on March 24, 2020, 03:59:37 pm
It's hilarious to me that people thought they could trust the medical advice of a raving drug addict.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 24, 2020, 04:05:24 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 24, 2020, 04:13:13 pm
Did they seriously manage to weave this chloropquine thing out of nothing? I mean, it makes sense that a drug that treats a bacterial disease wouldn't have any realistic chance of also happening to treat a novel coronavirus.From what I've heard, it has a side effect where cells shed fewer virons? Also that it was being considered in conjunction with anti-HIV retrovirals.
Edit: linky someone found - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1743-422X-2-69
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 04:36:29 pm
Nonetheless odds are you'll get it if you're very sick and it's available. As offlabel compassionate use. It's not like we are swimming in options, and this one is more easily scalable than most
Post by: Reelya on March 24, 2020, 05:09:38 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 24, 2020, 05:21:32 pm
Well that was new, just had a real life guy on the tram going on about the covid / 5g wireless conspiracy theory I mentioned before, who then pulled a bible out, then said school lied to us,mentioned evolution is just a theory, and then launched into what is clearly his main schtick which was flat earth stuff. I'd had zero sleep do i was just 'OK', 'uhuh' etc until I could get away.Wow, that's just a conspiracy theory stack going on there.
Post by: itisnotlogical on March 24, 2020, 05:40:08 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 24, 2020, 05:42:06 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/flushable-wipes-clog.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/flushable-wipes-clog.html)
It's being used all over the world. Observational studies suggest it might improve outcomes. Few trials with an outcome, most of them small and not very good, and results vary.
Nonetheless odds are you'll get it if you're very sick and it's available. As offlabel compassionate use. It's not like we are swimming in options, and this one is more easily scalable than most
As long as they take a reasonable amount, and don't consume the similarly-named pool cleaner. It's...not as helpful that way.
Edit: Also, as it's not yet proven, it's not a good idea if you live in a backwards hellhole where medicine is already expensive, like the US. (https://www.propublica.org/article/lupus-patients-cant-get-crucial-medication-after-president-trump-pushes-unproven-coronavirus-treatment)
Post by: nenjin on March 24, 2020, 06:06:59 pm
Always hated living in the midwest for various reasons, but right now I think I couldn't be more thankful. We're dealing with the same stuff everyone else is: work stoppages, closures, panic shopping, and the actual virus. But the dial is turned way down for us versus others. I've always said Nebraska is an incredibly boring place to live; sometimes that's just what you want. I'm sure as things decline elsewhere in the US, we will eventually feel the effects here. It's just nice to be able to go shopping, expect to find nothing, and find about 90% of what you were looking for.
Carrots and potatoes however, good luck. Apparently root veggies were the first things to get snapped up, along with all the flour.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 06:23:22 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 24, 2020, 06:38:28 pm
https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239718351573843973 (https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239718351573843973)
Infected/per/day are dropping in the Basque country... despite the infections in nursing homes, we're coming out of this. 😞
For now. Sort of expecting a spike from people doing everything they want the second they're allowed to leave home.
Post by: Max™ on March 24, 2020, 06:43:15 pm
How can you think you're infected if you have no symptoms?Yeah I'm literally saying that.
Basically what you are saying is, everybody stay home, including doctors, supermarket workers etcetera, because you just *might* have corona even though you feel fine.
Also I just made up Johnny Applepox and I am proud of it.
Granted yes there are literally essential workers we need, but no, the vast majority of people are not in any way essential right now, and are far better served by not helping spread shit, freeze everything, give people money to stay home, carefully and slowly restart once we have it under some semblance of control.
Post by: mko on March 24, 2020, 06:53:21 pm
I'm beating myself up for believing him when he said everything was under control in early march.I wonder how many deaths were caused by not cancelling 8th March marches.
In 1918 not cancelling parade in Philadelphia caused hundreds/thousands deaths.
Post by: Max™ on March 24, 2020, 07:25:06 pm
Also, anybody else want to craft a plague doctor mask with vacuum bag filters in the nose so they can custom fit the head covering because normal masks won't fit over a full beard and suck my dick I'm not shaving my damn beard for a fucking pandemic, plus I like the idea of horrifying people from cultures where the masks are pure nightmare fuel because I'm an asshole.
Post by: McTraveller on March 24, 2020, 07:28:26 pm
Also, this quote from the governor of New York: "Probably 'hundreds of thousands of people' have already had Covid-19, didn't know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going"
If we really have "hundreds of thousands" already had it and recovered, without being tested... >:(
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 07:28:30 pm
Best DIY mask materials. I wouldn't have considered vacuum cleaner bags.Well they aren't. Strict quarantines are still in place.
https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239718351573843973 (https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1239718351573843973)Infected/per/day are dropping in the Basque country... despite the infections in nursing homes, we're coming out of this. 😞
For now. Sort of expecting a spike from people doing everything they want the second they're allowed to leave home.
I dont think we're going back to normal after this either. Some restrictions might be loosened up. But I doubt there will be any major mass event until a vaccine is developed.
ASCO was already cancelled in favor of an online congress. I expect everyone else to follow suit soon.
I also expect close monitoring. The Basque goverment is going to distribute the Korean app. Really I think they were trying to follow the Korean model from the start with intensive testing. But then Vitoria exploded and they ran out of tests :(
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 07:34:44 pm
Everyone in the country is wondering about that. 😡I'm beating myself up for believing him when he said everything was under control in early march.I wonder how many deaths were caused by not cancelling 8th March marches.
In 1918 not cancelling parade in Philadelphia caused hundreds/thousands deaths.
I think we'd have covid anyway. But nowhere near this much. If alongside the parades restrictions had been put in place before that weekend, we might be out of quarantine already, sans several thousand dead.
Really, I have no words about how angry that makes me as well. The left wing party Podemos *wanted* to have their feminist rally, no matter what. The alt-right VOX *wanted* to do their antifeminist rally, no matter what.
And the f***ing goverment, THE ONES WHO ACTUALLY COULD HAVE STOPPED BOTH RALLIES, decides to roll with it instead. And lets not kid ourselves they didnt give a shit about VOX fascist rally, but they needed Podemos to keep their coalition goverment going. And they obviously couldn't ban one and not the other. And besides, what about sport matches? That's important too.
So they let a double clusterfuck happen because they were too spineless to make an urgent decision when it needed to be done 🤦🏻♂️
Really, the only reason the central goverment reacted when it did was because the Basque and Catalonian goverments were taking steps to start their own lockdowns.
Seriously is there any wonder why we want as little to do with the goverment in Madrid as possible?
Post by: Max™ on March 24, 2020, 07:42:34 pm
I was explaining to the missus how I'm still grateful he's such a stupid fucking moron, because he's shown clear admiration for strongman leader types, because if he wasn't so unlikeable, so allergic to expertise, so incapable of leadership, so inexperienced at governing, and so utterly certain anyone who feels as I do must be wrong... he could have made an alarming amount of progress towards installing himself as a more enduring fixture because by and large our defense against presidents trying that has been that you'd have to be absolutely despicable and impossibly corrupt to even consider it seriously given how much disrespect it entails for the office itself so we just elected people who respected the office... until Trump.
I mean, even Nixon had some respect for it, the sense that part of his legacy would be the condition he left it in for his successors, none of which Trump has.
Post by: Iduno on March 24, 2020, 07:49:17 pm
Well they aren't. Strict quarantines are still in place.
I dont think we're going back to normal after this either. Some restrictions might be loosened up. But I doubt there will be any major mass event until a vaccine is developed.
ASCO was already cancelled in favor of an online congress. I expect everyone else to follow suit soon.
Holy shit, what's it like to live somewhere so sane?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 24, 2020, 07:56:59 pm
The answer changes everything. If it's lifetime, we'll be safe at least from this strain once global herd immunity is accomplished. A bloody, but functional solution. If it's thirty years, same deal but we absolutely have to globally distribute the vaccine once it has been found, if it is found. If it's less than ten years, than most likely the governments of the world will fail to prevent this from happening a second time, assuming they have the vaccine by then.
If it's a year or less, we're in serious trouble. We're talking about either an end to global trade and travel or an end to people over the age of 70.
It doesn't appear to lack an immunity period, as I think even China would still be riddled with cases if we were facing something like that. I sure hope not.
Post by: nenjin on March 24, 2020, 07:59:48 pm
Meanwhile in the US we're on a countdown to see whether Trump is properly chastened (hah!) by the results of spring outbreak--which is what I predict it will be called after we realize we should have canceled that shit sooner--or if he gets his way and starts trying to trigger a restart of the economy while encouraging people to go mingle again in two weeks.
I was explaining to the missus how I'm still grateful he's such a stupid fucking moron, because he's shown clear admiration for strongman leader types, because if he wasn't so unlikeable, so allergic to expertise, so incapable of leadership, so inexperienced at governing, and so utterly certain anyone who feels as I do must be wrong... he could have made an alarming amount of progress towards installing himself as a more enduring fixture because by and large our defense against presidents trying that has been that you'd have to be absolutely despicable and impossibly corrupt to even consider it seriously given how much disrespect it entails for the office itself so we just elected people who respected the office... until Trump.
I mean, even Nixon had some respect for it, the sense that part of his legacy would be the condition he left it in for his successors, none of which Trump has.
Here's a less comforting thought for you, how far he's made it with:
-No charisma that someone capable of sniffing out a used car salesmen can't see through.
-No tact.
-No religiosity other than claiming he has it.
-No integrity.
-No patience.
-No experience.
-No judgment.
-No filter.
If that big of a trainwreck can convince half the country they know what they're doing......it would take someone microscopically more competent to do that and get away with even more.
I seriously remember seeing pictures and commercials of Trump as a kid and thinking "Who is this sleazy guy in a nice suit?" At least in the 80s, he had a modicum of class. Now he's like the Jersey Shore of rich people.
Post by: Yoink on March 24, 2020, 08:03:12 pm
Haha, I hit "new replies" this morning and there was some on the first page of new and it's still going eight pages later.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 08:08:56 pm
We have our own problems. Look at the post above. The central goverment in Spain bungled up bad by allowing a feminist and an antifeminist rally on the 8th of march despite knowing Corona was already here. They've tried to cover that up, just as they've tried to cover up the lack of PPEs, and the horrid situation in the worst afflicted areas, esp. Madrid. They also engaged in pure PR moves (like the "giant field hospital" in ifema, which in truth is just for show, see above). TV channels sound reminiscent of North Korean propaganda.Well they aren't. Strict quarantines are still in place.
I dont think we're going back to normal after this either. Some restrictions might be loosened up. But I doubt there will be any major mass event until a vaccine is developed.
ASCO was already cancelled in favor of an online congress. I expect everyone else to follow suit soon.
Holy shit, what's it like to live somewhere so sane?
Tbh I felt more at ease when their obvious propaganda show moved on from saying evertything was OK and food supply was guaranteed (that last bit made me panic) to more regular political bickering.
Not that I think the Spanish conservative party would have done any better mind you. In fact, given their obvious francoist slant and the retarded things their leader has been saying on national tv, it'd have probably been worse. At least our moronic PM seems to have a plan now, and implemented a fairly hard lockdown on the 14th. But when this shit started he dropped the ball as much as any other European level. This lockdown is decent. But this lockdown on the 7th of march would have saved thousands of lives. And I honestly can't believe they didnt know this was coming. For fucks sake, the public health official who lied at the beginning about having the outbreak under control... these guys do NOTHING but crunch data. From the 4th onwards the data showed we were heading the way of Italy. He had to know. He had to fucking know.
Tbh regional goverments have done better and have acted faster overall. But they can only go so far by themselves.
Post by: nenjin on March 24, 2020, 08:09:22 pm
Why is so much of this thread taken up with Trump-bashing?
Haha, I hit "new replies" this morning and there was some on the first page of new and it's still going eight pages later.
Gee I dunno, it's almost like he has a direct impact on the seriousness of the situation or something. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Post by: Yoink on March 24, 2020, 08:22:21 pm
Y'all just jump at any chance for this sort of thing. :P
Anyway, I had to go to the supermarket yesterday, unfortunately. It was kind of entertaining, though. Where I'm staying currently is regional/semi-rural, and I don't think there's been more than one confirmed case of the virus last I checked, but the panic is still well and truly underway.
The supermarket had extra security guards, there was no pasta besides lasagna sheets and, for some reason, spaghetti (I think they must stock the mostly-empty shelves with whatever they have a surplus of) and there were limits of how much you could buy of most things per transaction.
Only saw one or two folks wearing masks, though. Hopefully nobody breathed on me, but then I try to avoid close proximity to people at the best of times so I don't think they had too much opportunity to do so?
Post by: misko27 on March 24, 2020, 08:40:21 pm
And there's a real chance he forcibly reopens the economy. He's already been talking about it, and people follow his lead. Already some governors, like in Ohio and Florida, are resisting measures because they're quoting Trump's "The cure can't be worse than the disease." Florida's at 1,400 cases and has a lot of old...
Post by: Max™ on March 24, 2020, 09:01:27 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 24, 2020, 09:07:54 pm
So does most any person with power, whether it's in government or business.
Y'all just jump at any chance for this sort of thing. :P
He spent half his chances to do shit about it either denying it or blaming democrats, and often goes on racist tirades about how its china's fault. His administration defunded everything that could have helped in this situation. He cares far more about how the economy will live and how he'll make money instead of the lives that actually voted for him. And the country's already in a shit state before you even talk about him as heathcare in the US is a joke for the vast majority of its citizens. Now he wants to undo quarantine early.
The main difference in all this instead of his usual shenanigans is that a lot of people are going to die directly from his decisions, but also especially his lack of decisions. And the real horrific thought is that he'll once again suffer no concequences for his actions. Because at no point in his life has he.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 09:11:48 pm
Regarding vaccines and immunity for covid19
Post by: mko on March 24, 2020, 09:35:48 pm
So does most any person with power, whether it's in government or business.
Y'all just jump at any chance for this sort of thing. :P
Well, Trump is acting in way that is hard to parody.
Quote
1/22: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China. It’s going to be just fine.”
2/2: “We pretty much shut it down coming in from China.”
2/24: “The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA… Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”
2/25: “CDC and my Administration are doing a GREAT job of handling Coronavirus.”
2/25: “I think that's a problem that’s going to go away… They have studied it. They know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine.”
2/26: “The 15 (cases in the US) within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
2/27: “One day it’s like a miracle, it will disappear.”
2/28: “We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical.”
3/2: “You take a solid flu vaccine, you don't think that could have an impact, or much of an impact, on corona?”
3/2: “A lot of things are happening, a lot of very exciting things are happening and they’re happening very rapidly.”
3/4: “If we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work, but they get better.”
3/5: “I NEVER said people that are feeling sick should go to work.”
3/5: “The United States… has, as of now, only 129 cases… and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!”
3/6: “I think we’re doing a really good job in this country at keeping it down… a tremendous job at keeping it down.”
3/6: “Anybody right now, and yesterday, anybody that needs a test gets a test. They’re there. And the tests are beautiful…. the tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This was not as perfect as that but pretty good.”
3/6: “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it… Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
3/6: "‘Does anybody die from the flu? I didn’t know people died from the flu.’"
3/6: “I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault.”
3/8: “We have a perfectly coordinated and fine-tuned plan at the White House for our attack on CoronaVirus.”
3/9: “This blindsided the world.”
3/13: "Today I am declaring a national emergency. Two very big words."
3/13: "No, I don't take responsibility at all."
( yes, entries are cherry picked to include just the most outrageous ones. Still, WTF is this? )
Seriously, my country had share of embarrassing presidents (and other politicians). For example Kwaśniewski was drunk during official visit on cemetery of Polish people murdered during WW II by Soviets. Komorowski jumping on a chair in a Japanese parliament.
But none was responsible for causing N deaths and BIGNUM $ economic losses while presenting themselves as a total idiot.
Seriously, this is so ridiculous that in a fictional story it would break my suspension of disbelief.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 09:51:42 pm
Post by: itisnotlogical on March 24, 2020, 09:55:26 pm
Post by: delphonso on March 24, 2020, 09:57:30 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 24, 2020, 09:58:48 pm
The first cases have been reported in my local community. If this is some sort of elaborate weeks-long cult suicide, I wish they'd at least given me a pamphlet and T-shirt.
Why would a suicide cult bother with tees?
Post by: itisnotlogical on March 24, 2020, 09:59:39 pm
Going by WHO numbers, China is down to less than 200 new cases a day, and some semblance of normal routine is returning. I'm more interested to see if anything changes here. It would be nice if people washed their hands with soap in public places here, but that's still not a common thing.
Hell, if the bathrooms I've cleaned in my life are any indication then aiming for the god damn toilet isn't a common thing.
The first cases have been reported in my local community. If this is some sort of elaborate weeks-long cult suicide, I wish they'd at least given me a pamphlet and T-shirt.
Why would a suicide cult bother with tees?
Idunno, I was trying to think of some cheesy merch item a cult religion would give to potential recruits.
Post by: coalboat on March 24, 2020, 10:02:04 pm
Why is so much of this thread taken up with Trump-bashing?
This happens in every country except that the target of bashing is the respective national leader. The national leaders have built an image of immense power and the people have chosen to believe that. It only now turns out not true in the face of a worldwide natural disaster.
It's reasonable to worry about the possibility of a particularly charismatic person appearing and gaining absolute power in time of uncertainty and causing great damage to the world.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2020, 10:32:13 pm
I really hope it works out in China because it shows there is an afterwards
Post by: Max™ on March 24, 2020, 10:32:58 pm
Remember when I wondered what was going on in Brazil? It looks like Bolsonaro is calling for an end to mass isolation, school closings, and blamed the media for needlessly inciting reckless panic...
WAIT HE'S CALLING FOR AN END TO MASS ISOLATION AND SCHOOL CLOSINGS NOW?
Shit, is he trying to out-Trump Trump? Nobody tell Trump, we don't need a race to this bottom right now!
Post by: misko27 on March 24, 2020, 11:02:27 pm
I mean, it's not like the US is alone in that regard.Well the reason that's spooky is that Trump doesn't have much direct responsibility for most of the shutdowns. Governors have been doing it of their own accord. Granted, many will follow his lead, but Trump has set it up so that he doesn't (or at least tries to avoid) direct fallout for whatever happens either way.
Remember when I wondered what was going on in Brazil? It looks like Bolsonaro is calling for an end to mass isolation, school closings, and blamed the media for needlessly inciting reckless panic...
WAIT HE'S CALLING FOR AN END TO MASS ISOLATION AND SCHOOL CLOSINGS NOW?
Shit, is he trying to out-Trump Trump? Nobody tell Trump, we don't need a race to this bottom right now!
Post by: Magistrum on March 24, 2020, 11:14:34 pm
On my city the mayor declared 30 days closing of shoppings and commercial centres, so my store store had to shut down last week.
Really sucks because we just moved to this bigger place, rent and salaries are going to hit hard. At the start we just dismissed everyone for the day, now we got into an agreement with the union to give everyone collective vacation without the mandatory notice time.
It's pretty shitty that they won't be able to get proper vacation afterwards, but it saves me some future trouble and I pay them the month, looks like the great majority of our guys have no savings at all, suspending their contracts would be setting them up to be homeless.
Post by: Max™ on March 25, 2020, 01:59:01 am
So, hey, fuck you too fatboy, but thanks for clearly stating that you are unfit for leadership, don't let the door hit your flabby orange ass on the way out, don't want spray tan assprints on the door.
Post by: Muz on March 25, 2020, 03:17:00 am
US has one of the worst survival rates - that's probably both poor healthcare and poor crowd control. Indonesia looks like theirs isn't under control either; they could be the next Italy, what with the crowded cities and slow response.
There's also post-crisis leadership. Who the aid is going to, and how well it's distributed. Taxes, debts, and so on. Countries that have underfunded health care will really feel it now.
Post by: mko on March 25, 2020, 03:37:43 am
US has one of the worst survival rates - that's probably both poor healthcare and poor crowd control.And low testing rate, as heavily ill (and dying) people are easier to notice.
Countries handling it very poorly are not appearing at all in statistics (Syria) or with heavy death rate (USA).
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 05:41:00 am
Out of the 1400+ dutch healthcare workers that have tested positive for the virus, only 86 needed to be treated in hospital (and not all of those needed ICU or respiration).
97% got over the virus at home with barely any symptoms, according to our head of the RIVM (our national medical advisory).
He also stated today that he is carefully optimistic about the curve flattening.
As it seems now, with the lockdown in place, an infected person only spreads the disease to 1 other person, putting an end to exponential growth.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 05:44:16 am
The virus manifests as a slight cold or minor flu more often than assumed earlier.You just started the lockdown ... early days. Dont hurry up to leave. Even if the govt lifts it.
Out of the 1400+ dutch healthcare workers that have tested positive for the virus, only 86 needed to be treated in hospital (and not all of those needed ICU or respiration).
97% got over the virus at home with barely any symptoms, according to our head of the RIVM (our national medical advisory).
He also stated today that he is carefully optimistic about the curve flattening.
As it seems now, with the lockdown in place, an infected person only spreads the disease to 1 other person, putting an end to exponential growth.
The bit about most cases being mild was known. Appsrently it was discussed in specialist circles beforehand but in the last 2 weeks its everywhere. It doesnt change the problem one bit, which has alqaya been of large numbers 🙁
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 05:50:54 am
The more strict measures are less than two weeks ago, the extensive lockdown even just a few days, so we should expect to see more effect coming still.
And don't worry there is no talk yet of lifting lockdown restrictions.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 05:59:23 am
I keep thinking about Chernobyl and the liquidators. And how it has always been portrayed. Lots of moral superiority (from western Europe) But in the moment of truth, when faced with a real crisis? Our goverments are not showing themselves following the soviets' footsteps.
It's like when in a movie you lose suspension of disbelief. It's very very hard to get it back. I doubt I'll look at things the same way. Turns out that I was more right when I was a teenager than I was three mlnths ago, about all this shit
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 06:06:40 am
Over here, communication has been honest, albeit based on a lot of 'we don't know'.
As our prime minister put it 'we have to make 100% of decisions now based on 50% information.'
That's not censorship or media manipulation, that's just being honest about not knowing enough about the new virus or how to deal with it.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 06:09:03 am
Might be irrelevant in the end. Nothing will change or everything will change or we'll all sink after this. I don't know what to feel or how to feel anymore.
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 06:14:07 am
30-40 years of neocon politics in the various EU countries, with privatization and budget cuts for essential services has left our healthcare systems way underprepared for an event like this.
When this is over, that is something that is going to need to be adressed.
Post by: scriver on March 25, 2020, 06:25:33 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 06:29:01 am
I expect the post-covid world will spend more in healthcare and medical research. Which is good I guess.
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 06:38:25 am
neoliberalI know, but that confuses US readers too much.
EDIT: Hongkong has reinstated quarantine rules and working from home ethics.
A new rise in infections has prompted them to cancel the resumption of jobs.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 06:55:25 am
I was dreading to hear that.
Post by: Naryar on March 25, 2020, 07:00:31 am
I am worried it is still progressing pretty well.
...I can't wait until this has gone full Mad Max and the toilet paper gangs start roaming the streets.
Last I went to my supermarket supplies were alright. I'm going tomorrow.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 25, 2020, 07:02:38 am
Post by: wierd on March 25, 2020, 07:23:30 am
https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/25/new-coronavirus-research-suggests-vaccines-developed-to-treat-it-could-be-long-lasting/
Post by: Zangi on March 25, 2020, 07:37:04 am
Now wants Murrica to stop it’s patchwork suggested quarantine measures as soon as possible.
Post by: wierd on March 25, 2020, 07:43:36 am
Post by: Bralbaard on March 25, 2020, 08:05:39 am
Just imagine if he would not survive it. All his life waiting for the crown for nothing, and how would they handle a royal funeral if nobody can attend? Would probably be close to ending up in an unmarked grave, relatively speaking.
I wonder if the relatively high number of famous people you hear about that contracted the virus are another sign that cases are massively underreported.
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 08:07:11 am
People who shut down hospital systems and asking ransom to restore functionality in these times should be put away for life.
Post by: McTraveller on March 25, 2020, 08:17:44 am
World leaders have a tough job - they have to weigh things like "do I really destroy my economy for all 300 million of my country to save the lives of 2 or 4 or 10 million? Or do I just eat those deaths - as horrible as it sounds - so that the remaining hundreds of millions have a more or less normal life?" And that's even if you have a leader that doesn't present as a pompous child.
I don't know what world people live in where they think we can just have 75% of the population sit idle and not have a collapsed economy. It will take "drastic" economic measures like forgiving all debt, resetting the monetary system, etc. The number of people I know getting laid off from white-collar jobs even is now "growing exponentially".
If we don't lift the quarantine, or come up with a way that doesn't involve debt (printing money is a form of debt) to keep people in their homes and able to buy food, in less than about 4 weeks, I think we're going to start seeing societal breakdowns much more frightening than an overwhelmed healthcare system. If nothing else because people will just be literally going stir-crazy.
Post by: dragdeler on March 25, 2020, 08:18:47 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 25, 2020, 08:22:26 am
Post by: Bralbaard on March 25, 2020, 08:25:54 am
What sickens me to the core is that worldwide, hospitals and medical institutes report a staggering increase in hacking and ransomware attacks.
People who shut down hospital systems and asking ransom to restore functionality in these times should be put away for life.
Well if it is any comfort, there are also reports (at least in the Netherlands) that crime levels have dropped drastically over the last week. (criminals are apparently following goverment advice to stay at home) and that police has picked up chatter in the dark web that criminals are even telling each other not to interfere with hospitals. But you have good and bad criminals, I guess :).
The most fun statisic was that the reported numbers of pickpocketing had dropped to an insignificant number. Guess their job has become difficult now that people have to keep a distance of 1.5 meters.
Post by: sluissa on March 25, 2020, 08:27:03 am
Trump sees China already getting over the quarantine hump.
Now wants Murrica to stop it’s patchwork suggested quarantine measures as soon as possible.
China's numbers are still suspect.
South Korea on the other hand... I'd be more likely believe them. They caught it early, they tested heavily, and they did everything they could to contain it while the numbers were still containable.
All things the US has failed to do.
You can look at numbers like South Korea, or even China and say "That's what we're going to follow." But that's unreasonable to expect after you let it go uncontrolled for so long. And we're still letting people move around far too much domestically, even if we've limited international travel.
On second thought, maybe that's what they're looking at. They realized they've already failed. They realized it's going to be bad no matter what, so might as well go back to the "let it burn itself out quick" strategy and limit the economic damage.
Would not be surprised at all, at this point. I'm with ChairmanPoo at this point.
Western democracies have lost a lot of credibility with me after this. Lots of censorship, media manipulation, and govermenrs covering their own bungling. And healthcare workers being sent to the frontline of the disease without personal protection equipment.
I keep thinking about Chernobyl and the liquidators. And how it has always been portrayed. Lots of moral superiority (from western Europe) But in the moment of truth, when faced with a real crisis? Our goverments are not showing themselves following the soviets' footsteps.
It's like when in a movie you lose suspension of disbelief. It's very very hard to get it back. I doubt I'll look at things the same way. Turns out that I was more right when I was a teenager than I was three mlnths ago, about all this shit
Post by: andrea on March 25, 2020, 08:31:24 am
The thing is, McTraveller, governments have the power to pause rent, stop evictions, provide paid leave, and generally make the economy grinding to a halt not end the economy. Problem is, everyone over here is resistant to doing so... Why? What is so bad about ensuring we come out of this with an intact economy and a successful quarantine. Can't we have both?
Which makes me glad to be in Italy currently, since the government is doing many such things. I don't think it is pausing rent at this time( would be a mess to compensate all landlords), but it is pausing mortgages and allowing every company who wants or has to to send employees on leave paid by the state. And that includes a compensation , if small, to self employed as well. The amount is limited due to crippling debt and already crippled before virus economy, but it will probably help a lot both companies (don't have to keep payng employeed) and workers ( who aren't fired)
Post by: Teneb on March 25, 2020, 08:38:47 am
I mean, it's not like the US is alone in that regard.Yeah, Pocketnaro is not being popular right now. Everyone's turning against him except for his die-hard cattle.
Remember when I wondered what was going on in Brazil? It looks like Bolsonaro is calling for an end to mass isolation, school closings, and blamed the media for needlessly inciting reckless panic...
WAIT HE'S CALLING FOR AN END TO MASS ISOLATION AND SCHOOL CLOSINGS NOW?
Shit, is he trying to out-Trump Trump? Nobody tell Trump, we don't need a race to this bottom right now!
It's real weird to be in a state ruled by a fascist governor who... is actually handling this admirably well. Shit, even Rio's crazed pastor mayor is.
Impeachment talk is going on, and to be honest I hope it does go through. Same for his children, who are also politicians who rode in on his then-popularity.
Post by: McTraveller on March 25, 2020, 08:43:32 am
And I'm grumbling, but I have enough cash for 5 months of "normal" expenses, and I can probably stretch it farther if I have to. In a worse pinch I'm sure my wife could start working again today if she wanted (she's an RN but has not been working since our kids were born and aren't both in full-time school) because of the current situation.
Also, I don't think comparing US to South Korea is fair; SK is the size of Indiana and has only 2 international airports. We have way more exposure surface to deal with; 5 times the population but somewhere between 10 and 100 times the exposure surface if you just look at points of entry and border crossings; it just doesn't have the same scaling factor.
Of course hindsight is 20/20; we could have tried to have way more spare bed capacity, way more stockpiles of ventilators, way more willingness to just start testing and lock people up (quarantine is still imprisonment, even if it's not for a crime).
Post by: Frumple on March 25, 2020, 08:46:41 am
It's not just Trump - nobody wants the draconian quarantines. I mean I'm already down to 50% my normal pay, and if things don't change soon - like in 4 weeks - I'll likely lose my job entirely.Honey, it's literally goddamn impossible to have more or less a normal life when you're dealing with additional casualty counts in the millions, nevermind tens of them. There is no normal if the world's looking down the barrel of experiencing a fucking world war's worth of bodies to deal with. The economy's fucked regardless, either by the lockdown or the secondary effects of dealing with thousands and thousands of new corpses and some multiple of that of people too sick to work, it's just a matter of how many people die in the process.
World leaders have a tough job - they have to weigh things like "do I really destroy my economy for all 300 million of my country to save the lives of 2 or 4 or 10 million? Or do I just eat those deaths - as horrible as it sounds - so that the remaining hundreds of millions have a more or less normal life?" And that's even if you have a leader that doesn't present as a pompous child.
Post by: mko on March 25, 2020, 08:50:40 am
The thing is, McTraveller, governments have the power to pause rent, stop evictions, provide paid leave, and generally make the economy grinding to a halt not end the economy. Problem is, everyone over here is resistant to doing so... Why? What is so bad about ensuring we come out of this with an intact economy and a successful quarantine. Can't we have both?With work and factories stopped, economy is suffering. Now the question is who will pay for it.
"intact economy" is a mirage, the best we can do is "not collapsed economy".
Some things are obvious and not introducing them is insanity (paid sick leave), some have limited problematic effects but likely should be done (stop evictions for nonpayment), some would have negative delayed effects and are likely bad idea (give pile of cash to every citizen), some are idiotic (bailout foreign companies that should not exist in the first place and are completely unnecessary - like cruise ships).
Western democracies have lost a lot of credibility with me after this. Lots of censorship, media manipulation, and govermenrs covering their own bungling.Censorship? Where? Manipulations and hiding bungling is typical in any government, democracies have plenty of this but still better than other systems.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 09:44:35 am
Post by: coalboat on March 25, 2020, 10:44:13 am
Oh here it happens in the news all the time for the last two weeks. It's disgraceful
Xi/Putin/Kim:" Nobody knows more about censorship than I do..." ;)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 10:50:34 am
Post by: Max™ on March 25, 2020, 11:05:54 am
I mean, hey, once we're sure the stock market has bottomed out, funerary services, crematoriums, coffin manufacturers, whichever vulturous branch of the insurance industry feeds off of collapsed life insurance companies, ptsd therapy programs, all seem like they might be horrifyingly hot stocks to catch on the rebound.
Post by: wierd on March 25, 2020, 11:06:04 am
My little nursing home is out in the boonies, and not terribly rich. We have absolutely no full-automated respirator of any kind in our kit, and would be unlikely to get one. We DO have a crash bag with a manual bag respirator.
I also have a (crappy) 3D FDM printer, and a mostly new spool of ABS.
I would like to print out a Leitat 1, but cannot find the STL files anywhere. I understand that it was developed, tested, and approved in Spain. If you can get your grubby little doctor claws on the data for me, I would be appreciative. It occurs to me that the time to invest in printing is BEFORE we end up with it in the facility, not after.
For those wondering:
https://www.3dprintingmedia.network/leitat-presents-first-medically-validated-industrialized-3d-printed-ventilator/
Its basically a simplified bag squeezer.
While not approved for use in the US, I would rather face angry bureaucrats, and not have dead residents.
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 25, 2020, 11:07:30 am
Right - I just don't trust our government to put in place an effective, sustainable emergency plan. I mean the thing in the papers this morning is they are going to offer loans to companies to help them pay employees and rents. Why not grants? There's not going to be anything to pay these off with... why require repayment? Some of the House proposals are for cancelling student debt - WTF will that do if you still can't pay your mortgage or rent?
It's an awkward program they've set up, likely so that it will fit better into existing administrative entities (i.e. so they don't have to bootstrap up a new group of people to handle it). They're technically loans under the Small Business Administration because that's a thing SBA does, but as long as the company doesn't do bad things with the money (defined, of course) the loan auto-forgives after a period of time.
So kind of a loan, kind of a grant. This also lets politicians use the word they prefer - some get to call it a loan because bailouts are bad, some get to call it a grant because loans are callous.
Post by: Max™ on March 25, 2020, 11:13:24 am
Smaller kudos to Mercedes for having a commercial with a fortune teller or some shit and she says "gesundheit" to the guy and dude then tucks his nose in his elbow and sneezes. Small touch but nice to see.
As for student debt: ask literally anyone with a significant amount of said debt what they would do immediately with the money that would have gone towards paying it down, I'm pretty sure all of the answers end up translating to "pump it straight into the economy" via mortgages, cars, healthcare, relocating/moving from rent to ownership of homes, and many other such methods.
Post by: McTraveller on March 25, 2020, 11:41:41 am
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 25, 2020, 11:45:25 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 25, 2020, 11:54:30 am
Sorry, my ire with the "forgive student debt" thing is - why single out that type of debt? Why not small business debt? Why not mortgage debt? Why not medical debt? Such things need to be across the board, otherwise you end up with (usually adverse) side effects.In the US at least, student debt is uniquely bad because it cannot be discharged in bankruptcy and financially hobbles people at one of the most important periods of their working life.
That said, I'm ready to abolish usury if you are.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 25, 2020, 12:09:48 pm
Sorry, my ire with the "forgive student debt" thing is - why single out that type of debt? Why not small business debt? Why not mortgage debt? Why not medical debt? Such things need to be across the board, otherwise you end up with (usually adverse) side effects.
The economy would be far better off if old people could actually retire and young people weren't shackled by debt for just entering the workforce.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 01:13:04 pm
Hey Poo--- Maybe you can get the files I need (or want..)Could this be what you're looking for? I saw this recently.
My little nursing home is out in the boonies, and not terribly rich. We have absolutely no full-automated respirator of any kind in our kit, and would be unlikely to get one. We DO have a crash bag with a manual bag respirator.
I also have a (crappy) 3D FDM printer, and a mostly new spool of ABS.
I would like to print out a Leitat 1, but cannot find the STL files anywhere. I understand that it was developed, tested, and approved in Spain. If you can get your grubby little doctor claws on the data for me, I would be appreciative. It occurs to me that the time to invest in printing is BEFORE we end up with it in the facility, not after.
For those wondering:
https://www.3dprintingmedia.network/leitat-presents-first-medically-validated-industrialized-3d-printed-ventilator/
Its basically a simplified bag squeezer.
While not approved for use in the US, I would rather face angry bureaucrats, and not have dead residents.
https://www.oxygen.protofy.xyz/en-blog?fbclid=IwAR0fynHggV5gXFLGUQqNRDiuombN8mXhKQD5jJyyRSQXIIyww0OxGn_I2Fc&lang=es
It's of course an auto ambu-squeezer rather than a ventilator proper. I guess it beats not having anything at all...
As the website says, not validated anywherr, no warranty, use at your own risk, etc..
Post by: Iduno on March 25, 2020, 01:38:29 pm
The supermarket had extra security guards, there was no pasta besides lasagna sheets and, for some reason, spaghetti (I think they must stock the mostly-empty shelves with whatever they have a surplus of) and there were limits of how much you could buy of most things per transaction.
Slightly off-topic, but it's probably because lasagne noodles are pretty tough to use for other things, and spaghetti noodles combine flavorlessness, chewiness, and being too small to hold a sauce properly.
https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1242628551557316608
Regarding vaccines and immunity for covid19
I would assume that the more people who catch it (because we aren't being careful to prevent the spread, and we allow anti-vaxxers to interact with society), the faster it evolves.
The first cases have been reported in my local community. If this is some sort of elaborate weeks-long cult suicide, I wish they'd at least given me a pamphlet and T-shirt.
Why would a suicide cult bother with tees?
Why would a suicide cult bother with Nike Airs?
I mean, it's not like the US is alone in that regard.
Remember when I wondered what was going on in Brazil? It looks like Bolsonaro is calling for an end to mass isolation, school closings, and blamed the media for needlessly inciting reckless panic...
WAIT HE'S CALLING FOR AN END TO MASS ISOLATION AND SCHOOL CLOSINGS NOW?
Shit, is he trying to out-Trump Trump? Nobody tell Trump, we don't need a race to this bottom right now!
There was a apparently a mass text sent out in Brazil that said “We want the best for the population. If the government doesn’t have the capacity to handle this, organized crime will.” It's probably not who you want to be relying on, because they have profit in mind above your best interests. Have you seen the way the US government works? They hid how bad the virus was so they could make a profit on their stocks, and have said it's better for people to die than the economy to take a hit (which it will either way). I guess at least mobsters are smart enough to know they go out of business when they become unpopular with the populace. Politicians have learned they only need to be slightly less bad than the other side to stay in power.
It's not just Trump - nobody wants the draconian quarantines. I mean I'm already down to 50% my normal pay, and if things don't change soon - like in 4 weeks - I'll likely lose my job entirely.
World leaders have a tough job - they have to weigh things like "do I really destroy my economy for all 300 million of my country to save the lives of 2 or 4 or 10 million? Or do I just eat those deaths - as horrible as it sounds - so that the remaining hundreds of millions have a more or less normal life?" And that's even if you have a leader that doesn't present as a pompous child.
Part of the issue is, if we allow it to spread, it's going to mutate faster, which will make it harder to contain long-term. It's like pulling off a bandaid. Do we take a hit now, and have it controlled in a year, or kill more people and allow the virus to mutate more, and not get it controlled?
Sorry, my ire with the "forgive student debt" thing is - why single out that type of debt? Why not small business debt? Why not mortgage debt? Why not medical debt? Such things need to be across the board, otherwise you end up with (usually adverse) side effects.In the US at least, student debt is uniquely bad because it cannot be discharged in bankruptcy and financially hobbles people at one of the most important periods of their working life.
That said, I'm ready to abolish usury if you are.
Yeah, the Senators from Delaware (where many of the largest banks are located) have historically done an excellent job preventing human decency from triumphing over bank profiteering in the US.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 25, 2020, 01:42:29 pm
Also remember that thing about prison slave labor making hand sanitizer in new york to supplement the shortage? (oh wait there were a bunch of people in here saying it wasn't slave labor)
It turns out they were just buying sanitizer from an unknown company and having the prisoners stick it in new branded bottles. (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5dma4k/cuomos-prison-workers-say-theyre-not-actually-making-hand-sanitizer) So not actually supplementing the supply, just playing a shell game to feed cash to the department of corrections.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 25, 2020, 01:48:25 pm
On topic: dayum, that New York news is hyper shady.
Edit: Looks like they're working as a co-packer to actually bottle unbottled product. Still shady, but may actually be increasing supply if the producer can't bottle as fast as their tanks.
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 25, 2020, 01:54:36 pm
and spaghetti noodles combine flavorlessness, chewiness, and being too small to hold a sauce properly.
You take that back.
It turns out they were just buying sanitizer from an unknown company and having the prisoners stick it in new branded bottles. (https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5dma4k/cuomos-prison-workers-say-theyre-not-actually-making-hand-sanitizer) So not actually supplementing the supply, just playing a shell game to feed cash to the department of corrections.
Prisons, both public and private, in most of the US are extremely shady and terrible operations, so I'm not at all surprised by this. But seems more of an Ameripol issue?
In some of the closing remarks on this big relief bill members of Congress are already publicly talking about starting work on 'the next relief bill', so at least they're beginning to realize (and/or admit) just how long & bad this could easily be.
Post by: nenjin on March 25, 2020, 01:57:11 pm
Because it'd be the height of grotesqueness if that sanitizer was being shipped from China.
But my guess is they don't because the shareholders of said company would be.....revealing.
Post by: scriver on March 25, 2020, 03:21:48 pm
I believe the debate about prison labor was actually centered around Belgian prisons using it, given that those prisons are much nicer than US prisons.
Yeah, it was Belgians. And yes, it is hard to call voluntary work slave labour too.
Post by: IcyTea31 on March 25, 2020, 03:51:22 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 25, 2020, 03:54:28 pm
https://www.little-gamers.com/2020/03/25/in-case-you-didnt-know/ (https://www.little-gamers.com/2020/03/25/in-case-you-didnt-know/)
I believe the debate about prison labor was actually centered around Belgian prisons using it, given that those prisons are much nicer than US prisons.
Yeah, it was Belgians. And yes, it is hard to call voluntary work slave labour too.
Right. If they're just doing it for the fun of it, then it's no problem. That's unlikely though, and I don't know what coercion was involved.
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2020, 04:00:22 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 25, 2020, 04:05:39 pm
I couldn't resist doing a final run for some fresh greens. My housemate's still going to work every day so I'm more worried about him really. However instead of going to the constantly-swamped Food Lion (or gods forbid, Wal-Mart) I went to a local Mediterranean market for dry beans, and an asian market to stock up on fresh greens and specialty instant ramen. I was kinda amazed these places stay in business during normal times, but I guess they get a lot of subcommunity business. I've always felt welcome there and the prices are great, and I was the only customer at either. While the Food Lion parking lot across the street looked like a nightmare.
I did set these supplies aside though, at least for a couple days. Just to be safe.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 04:42:18 pm
My city's officially stay-at-home as of tomorrow. We're still allowed to go grocery shopping though, so I'm not sure how much this is changing (I think restaurants have been take-out-only for a while at this point).It's sort of working in Italy and Spain. Also unavoidable unless you get the army and police to distribute food house to house. 🤷🏻♂️
Try to make your purchases ample and infrequent
Post by: Greiger on March 25, 2020, 04:48:07 pm
I have no idea how accurate it is, but here is an explanation of coronavirus. Maybe someone with more biology experience can comment:
https://www.little-gamers.com/2020/03/25/in-case-you-didnt-know/ (https://www.little-gamers.com/2020/03/25/in-case-you-didnt-know/)
...
Not a biologist just someone who dabbles in the kiddy pool that is random science trivia.
From what I can gather the main point of it is that the flu our bodies deal with all the time, so we have some antibodies ready to recognize and fight it all the time. Not enough to completely eliminate it from our systems immediately like an immunity does because the flu mutates enough from year to year for our body to not be 100% sure how to, but enough to mitigate it until our body ramps up to fight it using more specialized mechanisms. Our body essentially knows what the little spikes on the outside of the virus look like and knows to hit the red alert lever when it sees it.
Coronavirus came from animals, our bodies have NEVER seen this virus before, i imagine it recognizes it as an outside invader and treats it as such, but the body's reaction to outside invaders is ineffective against viruses (If I understand it right it may be actively detrimental). Out body does not recognize the little spike like protrusions on the outside of the cell like it does the flu that tells it that it needs to fight this differently.
When we are exposed our immune system goes to work, somehow recognizes that the reaction is ineffective, and then there are some other kinds of cells that go out, sacrifice themselves by eating the virus, get a sample of it's dna and then show that dna to the rest of the body. Once the body knows the virus' dna THEN the body does a proper response to fight it, and in the case of many viruses your body remembers that dna for the rest of it's life and knows how to fight it.
One of the questions that are still up in the air is if coronavirus mutates enough to keep that dna memory effective, or if it changes enough every year to make it hard for the body to tell exactly what it is on a year to year basis.
EDIT for more clarity: We get viruses from animals all the time, but like how our body does not know how to fight it animal viruses don't know how to infiltrate our cells. Coronavirus basically got lucky and guessed the password to get into our cells and then told that password to all it's millions of kids.
Post by: Iduno on March 25, 2020, 04:54:21 pm
I have no idea how accurate it is, but here is an explanation of coronavirus. Maybe someone with more biology experience can comment:
https://www.little-gamers.com/2020/03/25/in-case-you-didnt-know/ (https://www.little-gamers.com/2020/03/25/in-case-you-didnt-know/)
...
Not a biologist just someone who dabbles in the kiddy pool that is random science trivia.
From what I can gather the main point of it is that the flu our bodies deal with all the time, so we have some antibodies ready to recognize and fight it all the time. Not enough to completely eliminate it from our systems immediately like an immunity does because the flu mutates enough from year to year for our body to not be 100% sure how to, but enough to mitigate it until our body ramps up to fight it using more specialized mechanisms. Our body essentially knows what the little spikes on the outside of the virus look like and knows to hit the red alert lever when it sees it.
Coronavirus came from animals, our bodies have NEVER seen this virus before, i imagine it recognizes it as an outside invader and treats it as such, but the body's reaction to outside invaders is ineffective against viruses (If I understand it right it may be actively detrimental). Out body does not recognize the little spike like protrusions on the outside of the cell like it does the flu that tells it that it needs to fight this differently.
When we are exposed our immune system goes to work, somehow recognizes that the reaction is ineffective, and then there are some other kinds of cells that go out, sacrifice themselves by eating the virus, get a sample of it's dna and then show that dna to the rest of the body. Once the body knows the virus' dna THEN the body does a proper response to fight it, and in the case of many viruses your body remembers that dna for the rest of it's life and knows how to fight it.
One of the questions that are still up in the air is if coronavirus mutates enough to keep that dna memory effective, or if it changes enough every year to make it hard for the body to tell exactly what it is on a year to year basis.
I caught what they meant, I'm just curious about the accuracy. Specifically the speed of mutation. We've got a high enough percentage of people here who either will or cannot get vaccinated, so I'm curious how often we'll see flareups from now on.
Post by: MaximumZero on March 25, 2020, 05:03:42 pm
Here in the US, that may actually be feasible. The military is certainly fucking big enough.My city's officially stay-at-home as of tomorrow. We're still allowed to go grocery shopping though, so I'm not sure how much this is changing (I think restaurants have been take-out-only for a while at this point).It's sort of working in Italy and Spain. Also unavoidable unless you get the army and police to distribute food house to house. 🤷🏻♂️
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2020, 05:06:14 pm
I actually managed to find a paper listing the number of nucleotide substitutions of covid19, and they seemed lower than the flu (numbers were 2.5 for covid19 and 10.5 for the flu or somesuch). I'm no virologist though so, beyond the basic concept of mutation rate (substitutions per nucleotide per cell infection) I dont know how to put these numbers into context.
I think someone here WAS a virologist though? Maybe he can enlighten us.
Anyways the opinions I've read about on the subject spin around that even if it mutates it will take a while and it wont be total vulnerability. So it wont be as bad, hopefully.
Post by: Greiger on March 25, 2020, 05:10:03 pm
A quick google shows that there are indeed two distinct strains, one being the original strain that jumped to humans, and one being a more aggressive successful evolution but the differences between them are minimal, so minimal that if our body recognizes one strain it will likely recognize the other even if it never saw it before.
It is apparently constantly evolving because the virus itself does not quite know what is effective at keeping it alive in our bodies yet. So if I understand that correctly, the virus is basically going under an extreme amount of mutation to try to adapt to our bodies and extend it's viability time, and that makes vaccines challenging. But we do not yet know if its capable of evolving enough to counter our immune systems.
Yea I recall bay 12 having an actual virologist at one time. But I'm sure they are busy and don't have time to give an explanation to us at the moment. If a doctor or our virologist says something that conflicts with anything I said side with them not me. I just like knowing how stuff works so when stuff like this happens I like to look it up. Since I started looking it up after it became news I may be misled.
Post by: Frumple on March 25, 2020, 05:45:19 pm
Like, on the vaccination front we frankly seem borderline blessed by CoV-SARS-2. It's so far not showing signs of actually being that "slippery", to use that comic's terminology. At the moment, our timeline on that front is still looking like a year or so for a vaccine being ready to roll out for more or less the global population.
Post by: McTraveller on March 25, 2020, 05:54:17 pm
Viruses don't mutate "because they are trying to figure out how to be successful." Viruses mutate because transcription errors are pretty damn common.
Successful viruses (read: remain in the environment longer) are: environmentally stable (don't fall apart outside a host) and reproduce fast enough without killing their hosts. The most "successful" viruses therefore don't kill their host at all.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 25, 2020, 05:57:22 pm
Covid is a successful virus - in bats and pangolins. Human biology merely happens to be able to run the RNA instructions of covid, and very poorly for that difference.
Post by: Jimmy on March 25, 2020, 06:04:04 pm
Also the reason you're SOL if you need hydroxychloroquine. It increases endosomal pH and interferes with the glycosylation of cellular receptors of SARS-CoV. Also immunosuppressant, so great for preventing secondary damage from the immune response to infection. Kind of wish I'd hung onto my last few bottles.
Still pretty slow over here in kangaroo land. Bad time to be asthmatic, since most relievers are gone. Forget about finding face masks, hand sanitizer or gloves too. I'm not holding out too much hope for the salbutamol to return to supply. Last time I toured the facility that manufactures the local brand, their machines broke down three times in the five hours I was there, and that was just a normal workload.
Since then, I know they've actually had several batches of medications from that place recalled because they found 'contaminants' in their product. It was parts of their aging machines that had snapped off and been ground into their drug products. Their equipment is old, worn out and only just able to meet normal demand. Forget about trying to ramp up supply. When you have a government that's been aggressively seeking lower drug costs by cutting supplier margins for decades, you get what you pay for.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 25, 2020, 10:57:08 pm
A good layman's explanation of the reason COVID-19 is so dangerous. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtN-goy9VOY)
Nice link. :)
In other Australian news our government has decided it is critical that hairdressers keep working (https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-australian-hairdressing-council-call-on-scott-morrison-to-shut-us-down/news-story/3e90fd7c3e21faaa9f03924032d44ab7). (They had imposed a 30 minute limit per client but that has now been lifted.)
Post by: wierd on March 25, 2020, 11:02:08 pm
Hey Poo--- Maybe you can get the files I need (or want..)Could this be what you're looking for? I saw this recently.
My little nursing home is out in the boonies, and not terribly rich. We have absolutely no full-automated respirator of any kind in our kit, and would be unlikely to get one. We DO have a crash bag with a manual bag respirator.
I also have a (crappy) 3D FDM printer, and a mostly new spool of ABS.
I would like to print out a Leitat 1, but cannot find the STL files anywhere. I understand that it was developed, tested, and approved in Spain. If you can get your grubby little doctor claws on the data for me, I would be appreciative. It occurs to me that the time to invest in printing is BEFORE we end up with it in the facility, not after.
For those wondering:
https://www.3dprintingmedia.network/leitat-presents-first-medically-validated-industrialized-3d-printed-ventilator/
Its basically a simplified bag squeezer.
While not approved for use in the US, I would rather face angry bureaucrats, and not have dead residents.
https://www.oxygen.protofy.xyz/en-blog?fbclid=IwAR0fynHggV5gXFLGUQqNRDiuombN8mXhKQD5jJyyRSQXIIyww0OxGn_I2Fc&lang=es
It's of course an auto ambu-squeezer rather than a ventilator proper. I guess it beats not having anything at all...
As the website says, not validated anywherr, no warranty, use at your own risk, etc..
I'd much rather have a leitat-1, simply because it has actually been tested, and has evidence of being effective as an emergency ventilator supplement. There *IS* a reason why things get tested and approved, and I would like to at least TRY to honor that as much as possible, even in a time of all out crisis.
I'm sure you know what I mean.
Post by: Reelya on March 26, 2020, 02:22:51 am
From what I can gather the main point of it is that the flu our bodies deal with all the time, so we have some antibodies ready to recognize and fight it all the time. Not enough to completely eliminate it from our systems immediately like an immunity does because the flu mutates enough from year to year for our body to not be 100% sure how to, but enough to mitigate it until our body ramps up to fight it using more specialized mechanisms. Our body essentially knows what the little spikes on the outside of the virus look like and knows to hit the red alert lever when it sees it.
There's a bigger point here which that article misses out on too. Most years, most people don't get the flu. That may be because similar flus have made the rounds before and if you got that one, or fought it off, you're pretty ok until you're hit with a different flu strain. Something like an average of 1/12 Americans get the flu each year. However, nobody has had anything similar to this new virus so it can infect say 8/12 people, so it could infect 8 times as many people in the first year, and if its death rate is 5-10 times higher than the flu then it could kill 40-80 times as many people as a normal flu year. Assuming an average of 35000 flu deaths per year then you would estimate deaths of 1.4 million to 2.8 million based on those ballpark figures, which is close to what the experts are actually saying.
So the thing with flu is that they're slightly exaggerating the need for it to mutate. Each person on average gets the flu once every 12 years, so it doesn't need to change as much as you'd think from year to year to keep infecting people.
Post by: Cthulhu on March 26, 2020, 02:43:34 am
Ugh. Viruses don't "try" to do anything. Please don't anthropomorphize them.
Viruses don't mutate "because they are trying to figure out how to be successful." Viruses mutate because transcription errors are pretty damn common.
Successful viruses (read: remain in the environment longer) are: environmentally stable (don't fall apart outside a host) and reproduce fast enough without killing their hosts. The most "successful" viruses therefore don't kill their host at all.
One, you're being pedantic, nobody's going to be misled if you say a virus is trying to do something, two, anthropomorphization is a great way to model unintelligent systems and is often pretty predictive. Do you even into egregores.
Post by: martinuzz on March 26, 2020, 03:45:10 am
Furthermore, they cannot be charged any collection costs for being behind on payment.
Post by: da_nang on March 26, 2020, 06:40:27 am
Finland is closing the region of Uusimaa off from the rest of the country. That's almost a third of the population (and two thirds of the confirmed infected).Huge chunk of my family and relatives right there, many of them vulnerable.
At least I have phone contact.
Post by: Frumple on March 26, 2020, 07:19:53 am
Our government decreed that people who cannot pay their rent anymore cannot be evicted by their landlords / housing corporations for the duration of the crisis.Good for them, at least. Now if only more countries would follow the examples like that :-\
Furthermore, they cannot be charged any collection costs for being behind on payment.
Post by: McTraveller on March 26, 2020, 08:10:43 am
nobody's going to be misled if you say a virus is trying to do somethingYou underestimate the "misleadability" of the general public :D.
Quote
Do you even into egregores.Ok I admit I had to look that up. And no, I don't 8)
EDIT: So how about those unemployment numbers?
Post by: Frumple on March 26, 2020, 08:57:21 am
Post by: sluissa on March 26, 2020, 09:59:03 am
Things won't be normal for quite a while but somewhere a balance will be struck between going back to what we knew, or getting used to what's ahead.
Definitely might be a rough road getting there though.
Post by: Jimmy on March 26, 2020, 10:17:36 am
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 26, 2020, 10:36:26 am
Our government decreed that people who cannot pay their rent anymore cannot be evicted by their landlords / housing corporations for the duration of the crisis.Good for them, at least. Now if only more countries would follow the examples like that :-\
Furthermore, they cannot be charged any collection costs for being behind on payment.
There is some language (that I haven't read carefully, I admit) in the US relief bill that tries to limit evictions for a period of time, but I wouldn't be surprised if it only applies in a limited fashion.
As to unemployment, may indeed be slow as one can't just flip a switch to go back to companies running at full speed. In theory the government aid package just passed (and subsequent ones in the months to come, I bet) can help grease things a bit, but the systems they set up to handle it are going to be completely overwhelmed.
And the amount of debt that's going to accrue is also going to make things weird - wouldn't be surprised if we end up going into the same territory as Japan with theoretically untenable debt levels. Japan's been making it work (sort of). But for the US the combination of interest rates and global reliance on US debt & the US dollar could make things even more odd.
Not saying we should sacrifice on the altar of capitalism, of course. Just that things may have to adjust, probably in a mix of good ways and bad ways.
Post by: Bralbaard on March 26, 2020, 10:42:14 am
I like the graph circulating for it. You got decades of your normal little craggy graph peaks, and then at the end just this gigantic straight up fucking flat vertical line literally several times higher than anything before it and showing no indication of slowing down. It's like a little pack of appalachian mountains waddling up to Olympus Mons or somethin'.
Olympus mons actually has a very very gradual slope. This unemployment graph looks like the dwarf fortress learning curve.
(https://pic8.co/sh/8xufc9.png)
Now part of that is because everybody gets fired at the same time, where in a normal crisis it would be spread out over several months and would look less bad, but still it is worrying.
Post by: McTraveller on March 26, 2020, 10:45:16 am
This is just the beginning of the "long term impact" of this whole mess.
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 26, 2020, 10:45:33 am
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 26, 2020, 10:54:43 am
PBS has a decent summary of a few of the major buckets of aid here (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-the-2-trillion-coronavirus-relief-bill-means-for-you), though I think its description of the giant $454 billion fund is simultaneously spinning it too positive and negative (in different respects).
Edit: meant to mention that according to it the eviction limitations are pretty narrow indeed, so nuts to that.
It is missing parts like the $150 billion for state and local governments, and goodness knows what else - I won't claim I've read all 880 pages either.
Post by: misko27 on March 26, 2020, 11:46:52 am
A large part of the graph is due to the hidden truth that many people were underemployed in the first place. Kept on casual or low hour part time jobs, they avoided being counted in the official unemployment figures. Now that their employers have cut them loose, they're finally being represented in the statistic they belong, namely people who do are not being employed to their ability.Ah but these are quite specifically unemployment claims, which is a very specific sort of statement about what sort of jobs people were having before they filed for these. You have to have a, quote, "real job" of sorts in order to file. I wouldn't be surprised that it's that bad even for the people who counted as fully employed, honestly: the Postal Service is on track to dissolve by June without government help (which it will get in this bill), public transport in NY is down anywhere between 25% and 90% in some areas (like the Metro-North, which connects the hardhit Westchester County and New Rochelle with the City; that's down to 90%), they're reducing services and stopping some trains. There's a damn near apocalypse of a lot of different fields of jobs.
Also, my sister just had a cough. A very bad cough, the worst I'd ever heard from her. Coughing desperately, deeply, interspersed with this very hoarse, desperate sounding breathing in-between. She said she felt like she was choking on something.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 26, 2020, 12:52:44 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 26, 2020, 12:59:32 pm
Bad: new spike
Good: they have more tests available and the spike is artificial because more people are getting tested
Those diagnosed cases don't really say much.
People hospitalized, and deaths are more meaningful statistically.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 26, 2020, 01:02:20 pm
Hospitalization likewise but less so.
Case diagnosis flawed as it is, is the thing that is delayed the least and gives you a clue as to which part of the curve you're at.
I'm worried
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 26, 2020, 01:24:42 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 26, 2020, 02:03:01 pm
Case diagnosis is flawed unless you also know how many tests were done, and the test groups compared were homegenous.
For example, 'double the amount of people diagnosed compared to yesterday' can mean that the infection rate has spread a factor 2 on one side of the spectrum, or that twice as many people have been tested and the infection spread rate has actually stayed the same.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 26, 2020, 02:31:31 pm
From symptomatic to death can be as little as a few hours even.Well. That's not normal. I mean I dont doubt you have outliers. But the reported median times from symptom onset to admission are around a week.
Case diagnosis is flawed unless you also know how many tests were done, and the test groups compared were homegenous.Yes, that's what I said. But you only have around 5-7 days of delay with case diagnosis. Hospital admissions would be around two weeks. Deaths around three. You can't really figure out where you are basing yourself on deaths.
For example, 'double the amount of people diagnosed compared to yesterday' can mean that the infection rate has spread a factor 2 on one side of the spectrum, or that twice as many people have been tested and the infection spread rate has actually stayed the same.
For that matter I wonder how trustworthy deaths are too. We all know that the testing criteria (and thus the number of tests done) have changed several times in every country, depending not least on availability. But are we sure they're counting deaths with the same criteria? Because my understanding is that they vary a lot as well. Today I read France is not counting those who die outside the hospital. I dont know if its true or not.
I expect it could go either way: bullshit news from the media here to pretend things are better organized than they are, or bullshit counting from France to pretend their numbers are not as bad as they could be. Like I said, I dont trust western goverments anymore. Turns out during a real crisis many things we took for granted wear off like glossy paint
The real question and conundrum is how long it takes Italy to recover, if ever. And how representative that is of qhat expects the rest of us
Post by: McTraveller on March 26, 2020, 03:18:13 pm
Post by: Inarius on March 26, 2020, 05:02:35 pm
Quote
or bullshit counting from France to pretend their numbers are not as bad as they could be
well, the governement said it officialy (the real cases were around 40-50 k), so it's not as if they lied.
Post by: Quarque on March 26, 2020, 05:31:00 pm
Deaths are a delayed statistic. Bear in mind those who die got infected weeks ago.
A delayed statistic, yes. And some deaths have been wrongly attributed to the flu or other causes. It's not a perfect measure.
Even so, it is a far more reliable indicator of misery than "cases". Test density varies so much between nations that those numbers are fictional. South Korea probably has a pretty reliable figure, but otherwise -- useless.
In fact, an even better way to compare countries is to look at deaths per million inhabitants. The USA is not nearly at the top yet at this scale. But if Trump has his way, it will certainly get there.
Post by: misko27 on March 26, 2020, 08:07:25 pm
I think Italy remains the most hard-hit country in the world right now; it was just about to surpass China to take the top spot for infections when the US bloomed past, but Italy also has a fifth of the population of the US and having anywhere a similar number of infections as the United States and China is really god-damned scary. So it has a huge caseload, both in absolutes and in terms of infections per million.
Post by: ZBridges on March 26, 2020, 09:51:05 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 26, 2020, 09:54:39 pm
My favorite part of the apocalypse is definitely the irony (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656).
The mexican border wall wasn't about keeping mexicans out
It was about keeping americans in
Post by: ZBridges on March 26, 2020, 10:02:41 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 26, 2020, 10:48:52 pm
Post by: wierd on March 26, 2020, 11:13:10 pm
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/amberjamieson/spectrum-workers-coronavirus-gift-cards
Post by: Quarque on March 27, 2020, 12:41:51 am
Now see deaths per million is also flawed, because then you would see the country that is most suffering is San Marino.You have to filter out the mini-states, because on such a small population even a single death (let alone a small cluster) can completely distort the figure. Too much statistical noise.
If you do that, you see that the hardest hit states in the world at this moment are:
1. Italy
2. Spain
3. Iran
..
13. USA
..
19. China
Italy also has a fifth of the population of the US and having anywhere a similar number of infections as the United States and China is really god-damned scary. So it has a huge caseload, both in absolutes and in terms of infections per million.I'm telling you again, "number of cases" are pretty much bogus numbers.
Italy is a good example. Over 8000 people died there. If the "number of cases" was correct, that would mean the death rate is 10%. Italy has great healthcare. Yes, that healthcare system is under terrible stress, but not so much that 10% mortality can be anywhere near the truth. The reason is simple: Italy stopped testing anyone who does not need hospitalization.
Multiplying deaths by 100 gets you a good estimate for the minimum number of real cases. At least 800.000 people have been infected over there, not 80.000.
Mind you, the multiplier can be much greater than 100 because of the delay. I am not saying you can reliably calculate infections that way. In countries where they have the disease under control like South Korea, number of cases is roughly about 100 times the death toll. In countries where it is spreading without any checks at all, the multiplier should be about 800 according to this model: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
However, Italy has been in lockdown for a few weeks and hopefully, the disease mostly stopped spreading there by now.
Post by: misko27 on March 27, 2020, 02:00:40 am
Moreover, the second, and perhaps more pertinent one, is that a 1% deathrate assumes that hospitals are able to care for the roughly 20% who require hospitalization. As cases mount and overwhelm localities, this no longer holds up. Taking the New York numbers of 8% require the ICU, and if we assume those who need respirators to breathe die without, we'd be at maybe 6% death rate (accounting for those who do get hospitalized). Which does not quite cut down your numbers by an order of magnitude, but gets to a pretty decent fraction of it. That's just a spitball guess though.
I guess the point here is that we just can't know, can we? There's so many assumptions... too many moving parts, not enough data.
Post by: Max™ on March 27, 2020, 02:07:20 am
Extrapolating that to either number puts you at a guesstimate of 120,000 to 960,000 cases in the US right now and unfortunately that sounds pretty fucking low. If we aren't in the low millions of infected right now I'll be goddamn amazed at how lucky we've been.
Post by: misko27 on March 27, 2020, 02:21:08 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 27, 2020, 02:30:23 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2020, 02:47:10 am
... assumes that hospitals are able to care for the roughly 20% who require hospitalization.How do you get to that 20%?
Out of 1400 hospital workers tested positive here last week, only 3% needed hospitalization, and of that 3% about 10% needed ICU care. The 97% that did not need hospitalization got better after 1 or a few days of the sniffles / mild flu-like symptoms.
Now these hospital workers were all below 67 (retirement age), so I can believe that the hospitalization rate rises when you add the elderly into the mix, but that won't get it up to 20%
Post by: Quarque on March 27, 2020, 02:54:04 am
Out of 1400 hospital workers tested positive here last week, only 3% needed hospitalization, and of that 3% about 10% needed ICU care.
Source? Your numbers are a lot lower than what I am reading. For example:
Quote
The model then uses the best current estimates of how long someone is infectious (14 days); how many new cases each infected person causes (called the effective reproduction number, it’s about 2.5); the percentage of Covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized (5%, reflecting the fact that most people have only mild or moderate illness); the percentage who need to be in an ICU (2%) or on a ventilator (1%); and the length of stay for each of these three.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-model-shows-hospitals-what-to-expect/
.. oh wait, you are talking about hospital workers, who were healthy middle-to-low-age people to begin with. That explains it.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 27, 2020, 06:16:10 am
And problems are age related too. You look at the stats, and fatality rate begins to increase slowly with age, dramatically so. The really big jump is in 80+ people. So one reason that was thought could have something to do with the differences in fatalities in Asia and Europe was how it has infested nursing homes in the West.
Of course, with a test shortage and only testing severe cases you're skewering mortality results and making it look more lethal than it is. This would likely be true anyway... I mean we *know* there are lots of asymptomatic carriers. Maybe as many as 5-10 for each symptomatic one. Its more frequent in the young, but it also happens in the elderly, so any affable granny could be a plague vector.
The problem with all this is still the same: healthcare collapse. Many interventions, surgeries and consults are being cancelled due to covid19. I don't doubt that people will die from the effects on the healthcare system
Post by: Inarius on March 27, 2020, 07:19:37 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 27, 2020, 07:48:45 am
Post by: Jimmy on March 27, 2020, 07:50:29 am
The problem with all this is still the same: healthcare collapse. Many interventions, surgeries and consults are being cancelled due to covid19. I don't doubt that people will die from the effects on the healthcare systemTo be fair, people were already dying from the failures of the healthcare system, just not so quickly or visibly. I have nothing but my deepest sympathies to offer my elderly clients in this time, since I can't get supply of anything more effective.
Post by: McTraveller on March 27, 2020, 08:08:34 am
This is the only metric that will include all the effects such as the impact of having an ICU full with COVID-19 cases so it pushes out other uses, etc. It will also include, interestingly, tertiary effects from reductions in pollution, travel, and other diseases also having their impacts affected by the social distancing and lockdown measures.
*Morbidity & Mortality
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2020, 08:13:52 am
If his condition worsens, minister of foreign afairs Dominic Raab will take on the prime minister job.
Johnson's pregnant girlfriend has also been placed in isolation.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 27, 2020, 09:06:30 am
*Morbidity & Mortality
Spoiler: I've always wondered what it stands for (click to show/hide)
Post by: andrea on March 27, 2020, 09:12:07 am
Basically, they checked graphs for the number of deaths and overlaid the coronavirus reported deaths. Coronavirus was already a big spike over the baseline... but exactly on top of it, total deaths reached peaks of 4-10 times (depending on location) more than reported coronavirus deaths. How many of those are virus related and how many healthcare collapse related is anyone's guess, but that is a lot of extra deaths.
Post by: misko27 on March 27, 2020, 09:30:39 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2020, 10:28:03 am
Post by: TD1 on March 27, 2020, 10:35:33 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2020, 10:44:26 am
Post by: Quarque on March 27, 2020, 10:56:32 am
Post by: Cthulhu on March 27, 2020, 10:57:19 am
The NRA is argueing to reopen the weapons stores, they claim guns are an 'essential' service.
Where's the lie
Post by: Kagus on March 27, 2020, 11:04:22 am
The NRA is argueing to reopen the weapons stores, they claim guns are an 'essential' service.
Where's the lie
"Service". Guns are obviously a necessary commodity, like food. Gun is not a service.
Post by: TD1 on March 27, 2020, 11:10:38 am
Post by: Rolan7 on March 27, 2020, 11:18:07 am
Incidentally my mother commented that if she happens to die of complications from the stuff growing in her intestines that was scheduled to be removed during a colonoscopy a week ago or two weeks ago (cancelled due to Corona), that she wants me to write an Op-ed calling her part of the toll of COVID-19. I think it was only partly a joke.Yeah. People dying directly from the virus aren't the only people it's killing. I hope she'll be alright. I'm very worried about my father in particular despite him being in careful isolation. Sometimes he has to visit the hospital these days, and we're just... hoping.
Post by: Lidku on March 27, 2020, 11:43:31 am
.........
....... There has been a reported 919 deaths reported in Italy as of today..
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 27, 2020, 12:02:01 pm
......Fuck
.........
....... There has been a reported 919 deaths reported in Italy as of today..
I was wondering why I wasnt seeing the number anywhere.
😒
Edit: that doesnt mean that Italy is doing poorly, necessarily.... peak death will come after peak infections, necessarily. But it's terrifying nonetheless
Post by: Devastator on March 27, 2020, 12:21:39 pm
Post by: Iduno on March 27, 2020, 01:58:53 pm
My favorite part of the apocalypse is definitely the irony (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52053656).
The mexican border wall wasn't about keeping mexicans out
It was about keeping americans in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3lsJmwNO40 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3lsJmwNO40)
Flip I read that as IRA.
Nah, NRA likes gun deaths because they always cause a spike in sales, so they are more okay with untargeted deaths. IRA was trying to target groups, usually. As usual, the terrorist group is more reasonable than the US corporation.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 27, 2020, 02:35:53 pm
Toilet paper and paper towels still out of stock, as are wipes, soaps and disinfectants
Rice, pasta, and shelf stable canned items were in short supply but still available.
Meat items limited to 2 per person, so no average joe can hoard all the bacon
Shelves were emptier than usual, but it feels most of the panic buying has died down
Post by: nenjin on March 27, 2020, 02:42:14 pm
Post by: misko27 on March 27, 2020, 02:47:55 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2020, 07:08:29 pm
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/op-de-ic-gaat-de-coronapatient-in-een-paar-uur-van-een-redelijke-toestand-naar-ademnood~bc4e6e9f/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/op-de-ic-gaat-de-coronapatient-in-een-paar-uur-van-een-redelijke-toestand-naar-ademnood~bc4e6e9f/)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Max™ on March 27, 2020, 09:13:10 pm
Post by: dragdeler on March 27, 2020, 10:59:11 pm
Post by: wierd on March 27, 2020, 11:01:37 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 27, 2020, 11:15:16 pm
Quote
Did anybody else hear blood type A people are more heavily affected or is that just my cooky sources?Some chinese paper claimed something of the sort. Didnt read it but IIRC in medscape they surmised it was really tentative
Post by: TamerVirus on March 27, 2020, 11:59:46 pm
One theory is, that a neurological component is present, which makes patients unable to feel how short on oxygen they are. This is an unknown symptom in any other affliction. These patients more often than not end up on the ICUThere were a couple troubling medical studies suggesting that the Coronvirus has the ability to cross the blood-brain barrier and affect the central nervous system.
”The possible neuroinvasion of SARS-CoV-2 may also partially explain why some patients developed respiratory failure, while others not.” (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jmv.25728)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 28, 2020, 12:05:11 am
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 28, 2020, 12:23:46 am
I'm curious if the speculation about fertility effects in men will pan out to anything - that'd really seal the deal on covid as the "Earth's response to humanity" virus.
Joke's on you, noone wants to have kids with me anyways.
Post by: martinuzz on March 28, 2020, 03:54:19 am
I'm assuming theHaha no. 'krant' is the dutch word for newspaper. 'Volkskrant' translates to 'people's newspaper'.krant thing is no typo? Yo I could have used that exercise :D
It is somewhat like the dutch equivalent of the NYT.
It even shares columnists with it every once in a while, like Thomas L. Friedman.
EDIT: meanwhile, doctors over here are fearing that the death toll of non-corona related illness will surpass the corona death toll.
More than 40% of unrelated medical care has been cancelled to transfer various specialists to corona care.
This comes down to half a million cancelled hospital procedures every week.
What's more, patients are massively avoiding going to the doctor with other complaints, out of fear of being infected with corona at doctor's posts. A lot of critical diagnosis are missed this way.
It's a bad time to have cancer, a stroke, heart problems, needing colostomy etc.
Post by: Reelya on March 28, 2020, 04:05:47 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 28, 2020, 04:06:50 am
What Dragdeler is talking about is that you misspelled it "volksrant" without the k. They were wondering if that was deliberate, but it seems it was a typo.Oh hahaha, I didn't see that.. Yeah that was a typo, albeit one LW has joked about before ;)
Post by: scriver on March 28, 2020, 06:40:54 am
What does "krant" mean more directly though? As in how, for example, the Swedish word for newspaper is tidning, which more directly means time-ning.
Post by: martinuzz on March 28, 2020, 08:41:22 am
However the word 'krant' itself just means newspaper, it has no other meaning.
Post by: scriver on March 28, 2020, 08:58:45 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 28, 2020, 05:13:36 pm
Last week, the government had ordered a batch of 1.3 million from a Chinese manufacturer, to be used by medical teams working with corona patients, who have an extreme risk of being infected.
The masks do not fit properly to the face, leaving openings for the virus to pass through, and the inner membranes that are supposed to keep the virus out also didn't work.
This came to light after various hospitals did not trust the masks and had them tested by TNO.
After both TNO and our national Healthcare Inspection declared the masks unsafe for use, the government stopped distributing them and hastily recalled the 600 thousand that were already handed out.
The government reports that all masks have been secured. However, it is yet unknown how many doctors and nurses have used the masks in the past few days, and have been put at risk.
It is unknown how much the government paid for the masks.
New masks have now been ordered from a different manufacturer.
The government spokesman says that in these times, it is pretty difficult to acquire face masks of sufficient quality as to be used by medical staff, because every counrty in the world is trying to get them.
Possibly, the Chinese manufacturer neglected the quality standards out of pursuit of profit, or perhaps quality standards suffer from increased work pressure.
In any case, every imported batch of face masks will now be double-checked before being distributed.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 28, 2020, 05:47:39 pm
To be fair, the Chinese govt intervened on the Spanish case.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 28, 2020, 05:53:12 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 28, 2020, 05:58:15 pm
China provided lists of sanctioned retailers. But those have waiting lists.
So countries are trying alternate unsanctioned retailers. With mixed results.
But the Chinese goverment has promised to investigate the companies involved (I think they'll probably get at least some people shot)
China produces good quality stuff. But also bad quality stuff. I mean it's a frikking huge country. I think you need to be careful about whom you purchase from.
Post by: Reelya on March 28, 2020, 07:00:06 pm
* that's the "social credit system" that was proposed, but most articles about it are clickbait.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: delphonso on March 28, 2020, 09:24:20 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 28, 2020, 09:27:23 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 28, 2020, 09:28:13 pm
So it has nothing to do with tracking and disempowering dissidents? ... Right.
I wouldn't exactly trust a publication called "China Briefing". It says it's run by a Pan-Asian organization, but I'm sure the Communist Party has its feelers running all throughout the thing.
Post by: Reelya on March 28, 2020, 09:41:09 pm
Re: Chinese social credit
So it has nothing to do with tracking and disempowering dissidents? ... Right.
Yeah, but they don't actually need to have a social credit system for that. They can just arrest you. For example, they mention in the below article about someone blacklisted from certain services, but that had absolutely nothing to do with any sort of scoring system, and no such scoring system is necessary to do that. For the purposes of control generally governments don't want to build a system with any sort of transparent scoring, they want to keep all that information hidden. If a scoring system comes in, and the rules are transparent then that actually conflicts with the arbitrary execution of power, it doesn't enhance it.
Most of the stuff about individuals is about tracking credit history, the same thing the west has with credit scores. Currently China barely has any way of tracking that stuff. So it's just western-inspired credit history tracking, since, you know, China doesn't actually have a credit-rating system currently. This is really for the benefit of business and not the state. If the state rates you and then makes that rating publicly available then that's revealing information, which they're generally against doing so. For example if a journalist writes a critical story, then their rating drops, then it's now public information that the government dropped his rating because of the story he wrote. Which is ... not a thing they want to reveal. It makes good drama in a dystopian sci-fi or spy thriller movie, but that's generally not how reality works.
This is what I mean by clickbait. China is implementing stuff that's 99% the same stuff we all have in the West, then suddenly that's big brother gone mad. There's stuff like being declined train tickets, but if you look at the examples of reasons, it's mostly fucking up on trains that causes them to do that. Even in free America, they can ban you from public transport for being a repeated nuisance.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/china-social-credit-system-explained
Post by: Max™ on March 28, 2020, 10:05:21 pm
The whitest of white hats, ifixit, has got you, hopefully.
US cases: 124k, deaths, 2.1k and expected to speed up now after ~800 deaths yesterday and ~20k cases.
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 28, 2020, 10:15:29 pm
EDIT: Dammit, still can't find it... I'll keep looking...
EDIT: Found it. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-28-20-intl-hnk/h_a3c2e7461af128b10c219e854df322da
EDIT: Was a bit inaccurate what exactly the article claimed. Fixed it.
Post by: Teneb on March 28, 2020, 10:26:03 pm
I'm curious if the speculation about fertility effects in men will pan out to anything - that'd really seal the deal on covid as the "Earth's response to humanity" virus.Gotta keep in mind that this kind of talk is pretty damn close to what the ecofascists are sqwaking these days. I know you ain't one, but still.
Post by: Rolan7 on March 28, 2020, 11:09:42 pm
Not that I have any hopes that this virus is going to improve things on that front. It has all the horror, and relatively little change in population impact longterm due to the demographics it (mostly) targets.
Post by: wierd on March 28, 2020, 11:27:30 pm
It could be a tipping point politically. Just be aware of the carpet baggers, and other power-seizers that will waltz in.
Post by: Reelya on March 28, 2020, 11:44:26 pm
https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/news-and-features/report-millennials-and-baby-boomers-March2019.pdf
The main driver of boomers using more electricity is that boomers have bigger houses, and a big driver of that difference is heating/cooling costs for the larger space, plus the fact that a lot of millenials only watch shows on a phone or laptop, not an entertainment system. But ... if that boomer dies, someone else moves into that house, and starts using all those facilities, and totally be watching all their shows on a big screen which chews up more power than a laptop.
Also included in the report is the fact that boomers cook more often, so that counts towards household emissions. However this is a false equivalence because it fails to account for emissions and waste from getting take out. So, the "green" Millennial moves into the huge house of the dead "wasteful" boomer, then instead of cooking for themselves they order food via Uber Eats every single night.
The thing is, most of the categories in which Millennials do better than Boomers merely arise because the millennials have a lack of money to afford the wasteful things like a big house with space for a giant entertainment system, not a lack of them wanting those things. I can totally see the scenario where the Millennials grow up to be even a more power-hogging generation than the Boomers. Boomers use more energy that Millennials right now, but they certainly used a lot less when they were the Millennial's age.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 28, 2020, 11:50:15 pm
Millennials are locked out of the political system, and our views on environmentalism thus are not reflected in policy, which is where they have the only significant impact. Outside of that, the best we can do is send boomer industries to the slaughter by not buying.
Post by: Rolan7 on March 28, 2020, 11:54:28 pm
The main driver of boomers using more electricity is that boomers have bigger houses, and a big driver of that difference is heating/cooling costs for the larger space, plus the fact that a lot of millenials only watch shows on a phone or laptop, not an entertainment system. But ... if that boomer dies, someone else moves into that house, and starts using all those facilities, and totally be watching all their shows on a big screen which chews up more power than a laptop.Woah, I didn't mean to imply that older generations consume more resources per capita. Just that younger generations are currently less eager, than previous generations, to reproduce as if we have infinite space and resources.
Though younger generations *are* cohabitating more due to being squeezed of financial power by older generations. Which is teaching a culture of efficiency, and not just the old nuclear family vs bachelor model.
And that's all I have to say about that.
Edit: Though they definitely do consume more resources per capita, duh, but we don't cull them because they're us 20-30-20000 years down the line, and that's completely unrelated to anything I meant to say.
Edit2: I just want them to stop telling me to make children
Post by: Inarius on March 29, 2020, 04:03:34 am
Quote
Edit2: I just want them to stop telling me to make children
It stopped for me, around 30-32 :)
Post by: Kagus on March 29, 2020, 04:53:16 am
EDIT: Something slightly more on-topic: 102-year-old woman kicks covid19, may have lived through Spanish flu as well (https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-28-20-intl-hnk/h_621a06dfd17af984912e4d1c4d94cbac)
Post by: martinuzz on March 29, 2020, 05:17:10 am
Huh? Do people in your country still push their younger generation to have children?QuoteEdit2: I just want them to stop telling me to make children
It stopped for me, around 30-32 :)
Over here this only happens in hardcore religious circles, and with extreme right replacment theory nutters.
Also, soylent green - millenial edition, now with 5% more green.
Post by: Kagus on March 29, 2020, 05:20:38 am
I was 19.
Post by: martinuzz on March 29, 2020, 05:24:16 am
Post by: Max™ on March 29, 2020, 06:13:14 am
Post by: scriver on March 29, 2020, 06:36:13 am
The main driver of boomers using more electricity is that boomers have bigger houses, and a big driver of that difference is heating/cooling costs for the larger space, plus the fact that a lot of millenials only watch shows on a phone or laptop, not an entertainment system. But ... if that boomer dies, someone else moves into that house, and starts using all those facilities, and totally be watching all their shows on a big screen which chews up more power than a laptop.Woah, I didn't mean to imply that older generations consume more resources per capita. Just that younger generations are currently less eager, than previous generations, to reproduce as if we have infinite space and resources.
Though younger generations *are* cohabitating more due to being squeezed of financial power by older generations. Which is teaching a culture of efficiency, and not just the old nuclear family vs bachelor model.
And that's all I have to say about that.
Edit: Though they definitely do consume more resources per capita, duh, but we don't cull them because they're us 20-30-20000 years down the line, and that's completely unrelated to anything I meant to say.
Edit2: I just want them to stop telling me to make children
We all need to make 1.6 children to have sustainability. It's your duty! I know the reducing of the second child might seem a bit brutal at first, but we can't let a squeamishness of blood and gore stand in the way of humanity.
It's a bit the other way around here.. Women who have kids before they are 30 are looked upon with some sort of pity for putting a dent in their freedom and career.
...You sound like you hang out in very wrong circles.
Post by: martinuzz on March 29, 2020, 06:49:11 am
...You sound like you hang out in very wrong circles.How so? What is wrong with modern women postponing having children until they are 30-ish?
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 06:55:02 am
Another way to look at is, is that if you have kids around the early 20s, they've left home when you're around the age of 40, so you've got that to look forward to.
Whereas if you want until you're in your 30s to have kids, then you're caring for kids until you're getting on to almost 60ish. you really want to be dealing with teen / young adult fuck up little shits when you're almost at retirement age?
Post by: King Zultan on March 29, 2020, 07:01:21 am
We all need to make 1.6 children to have sustainability. It's your duty! I know the reducing of the second child might seem a bit brutal at first, but we can't let a squeamishness of blood and gore stand in the way of humanity.Is there a guide to tell you when to stop cutting or do you just guess and pick a spot to stop at?
Post by: scriver on March 29, 2020, 07:07:44 am
...You sound like you hang out in very wrong circles.How so? What is wrong with modern women postponing having children until they are 30-ish?
What's wrong is looking down on people for having children before 30.
We all need to make 1.6 children to have sustainability. It's your duty! I know the reducing of the second child might seem a bit brutal at first, but we can't let a squeamishness of blood and gore stand in the way of humanity.Is there a guide to tell you when to stop cutting or do you just guess and pick a spot to stop at?
Well we it's always hard to know exactly when to stop. I always recommend starting with the extremities and working your way inwards. Remember to end it with a margin because they tend to pour out a bit from what's left, you don't want to end up with 0.3 of a kid just because their guts fell out
Post by: martinuzz on March 29, 2020, 07:14:16 am
It's more of a compassionate pity for losing freedom of life options, because, even though our country rates really high on female emancipation, having children still is more of a significant hurdle on the job market for women than it is for men.
That, and bye bye to most sponaneous social events with your friends for years, unless you can find a babysitter that's almost always available on last minute notice.
A lot of women do not postpone it until 30 though. There's a large correlation between education levels and pregnancy age.
Personally, I'd advise anyone to wait with having children until age 26-27 for wholly different reasons. Wait for your brain to finish maturing before making the life decision that comes with the greatest responsibility.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 07:15:41 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 29, 2020, 07:24:26 am
Our ICUs are now nearly completely full.
In other news:
The government in Greenland has prohibited the sale of alcohol in it's capital Nuuk until the 15th of april, to protect children against domestic violence and abuse, and to reduce the number of alcohol poisoning cases.
Nearly 1 out of 3 Greenlanders have been the victim of sexual abuse in their youth. According to experts on the subject, this is due to excessive drinking habits and little attention for children's rights.
Post by: scriver on March 29, 2020, 07:26:11 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 29, 2020, 07:28:39 am
Could have just put it in the EU thread I guess.
Post by: scriver on March 29, 2020, 07:31:09 am
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 07:37:18 am
Recently there were more conspiracy theories about Wuhan.
The latest one shows a photo of a pallet of urns being delivered, with reportedly 5000 of them, and asking why they'd need so many urns. It's actually very poor "evidence" of anything. Many people in China are cremated, and Wuhan is a city of 11 million people. Flu deaths this winter still exceed coronavirus deaths by a large margin. That many urns would last a Chinese city the size of Wuhan just a few weeks at this time of year, even without coronavirus.
(EDIT: death rate in china is 7.261 per 1000 residents, so for Wuhan population, 11.08 million, 80452 deaths per year. Cremation rate in China is 48.50%, so they'd go through 39000 urns per year. 5000 urns is enough for 6 weeks out of the year, even without a virus. Additionally, the city's been locked down for 2 months so may not have gotten shipments for a while. Maybe they were running out for that reason alone. Additionally, they may just be cremating more people than normal in Wuhan instead of burial due to precautions. That alone would double the city's demand for urns to 5000 every 3 weeks, even for normal deaths).
In other words, we need better evidence than that, and the fact that that's the best evidence they've got actually suggests there really isn't any good solid evidence. China cremates 4.5 million people a year. That's a lot of urns. Maybe there's something in it, but they need better evidence than the fact that a shipment of empty urns turned up.
Post by: King Zultan on March 29, 2020, 07:39:50 am
Nearly 1 out of 3 Greenlanders have been the victim of sexual abuse in their youth.What the fuck is wrong with Greenland, why are there that many pedophiles in one place?
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 08:24:48 am
Additionally, they may just be cremating more people than normal in Wuhan instead of burial due to precautions.
Also, in Italy (probably also in Wuhan) gatherings were banned. This included burials. So people were more likely to cremate, to wait till gathering ban lifted. This way people are allowed to have standard ceremomy with friends/family.
This is part of the reason for overloading crematoria in Italy.
The government in Greenland has prohibited the sale of alcohol in it's capital Nuuk until the 15th of april, to protect children against domestic violence and abuse, and to reduce the number of alcohol poisoning cases.
And in case that someone thinks that this is an overreaction
Quote
Pay days are the worst time for the children of Tasiilaq, officials say. With their salaries or social benefits in hand, many adults tend to drink and parents become too inebriated to look after their children, officials say. That’s when an already high rate of sexual abuse rises, according to a police study published last week […]
So on the last Friday of every month, officials open a sports hall in the district as a shelter to keep children away from sexual abuse.
“Children were abused by their stepfathers, cousins and by the neighbor looking after them as the parents were on a bender,” Naasunnguaq Ignatiussen Streymoy, the mother of a sexual abuse victim and an anti-abuse activist, told Weekendavisen, a newsweekly, in an article published on Friday about the crisis.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/world/europe/greenland-sexual-abuse-tasiilaq-denmark.html
Nearly 1 out of 3 Greenlanders have been the victim of sexual abuse in their youth.What the fuck is wrong with Greenland, why are there that many pedophiles in one place?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: TamerVirus on March 29, 2020, 08:57:43 am
Flu deaths this winter still exceed coronavirus deaths by a large margin.Do you know how many people died of the flu in China? Officially?
Source 1 (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml)
Source 2 (http://china.caixin.com/2019-02-20/101381790.html)
2019 - over 144 in January
2018 - 144
2017 - 41
2016 - 56
This peer-reviewed paper (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf) using official influenza data between 2004-2015 indicated that out of 1173640 recorded influenza cases, 107 resulted in death.
So by official Chinese data, Coronavirus has killed 3300 people, more than the flu did in the past 15 years
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 09:06:31 am
How they are counting this? I was not checking this but it is suspiciously low, compared to for example USA data.Flu deaths this winter still exceed coronavirus deaths by a large margin.Do you know how many people died of the flu in China? Officially?
Source 1 (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml)
Source 2 (http://china.caixin.com/2019-02-20/101381790.html)
2019 - over 144 in January
2018 - 144
2017 - 41
2016 - 56
This peer-reviewed paper (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf) using official influenza data between 2004-2015 indicated that out of 1173640 recorded influenza cases, 107 resulted in death.
So by official Chinese data, Coronavirus has killed 3300 people, more than the flu did in the past 15 years
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 09:14:39 am
Flu deaths this winter still exceed coronavirus deaths by a large margin.Do you know how many people died of the flu in China? Officially?
Source 1 (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177725.shtml)
Source 2 (http://china.caixin.com/2019-02-20/101381790.html)
2019 - over 144 in January
2018 - 144
2017 - 41
2016 - 56
This peer-reviewed paper (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(19)30354-6/pdf) using official influenza data between 2004-2015 indicated that out of 1173640 recorded influenza cases, 107 resulted in death.
So by official Chinese data, Coronavirus has killed 3300 people, more than the flu did in the past 15 years
...well I find those numbers hard to believe given that with a fraction of the population, the US is estimated to have 25-50k deaths per year.
I do not take the covid19 numbers at face value either mind you, because every country seems to be using different testing criteria, and different dead counting criteria. But if left unchecked this shit has to surpass seasonal flu. I mean no seasonal flu is able to hit most of the population. Even if the fatality rate is overestimated that'd result in tens of thousands of deaths by sheer numbers
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 09:20:27 am
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909231/
Quote
Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of death in adults and children in China. In urban areas, pneumonia is the fourth leading cause of death, and in rural areas pneumonia is the leading cause of death. A recent article in the Chinese literature estimated that each year in China there are 2.5 million patients with pneumonia and that 125,000 (5%) of these patients die of pneumonia-related illness
125,000 per year according to Chinese sources die of pneumonia, which is on the right scale compared to USA flu deaths: about 4 times the average flu deaths for the USA.
They're not hiding the deaths they're just labeling them differently. It ... didn't take very long to find the right information, seeing as how the pneumonia is what kills you so I merely googled "China pneumonia deaths" to get the right figures.
So anyone spinning it that the Chinese are "hiding" flu deaths is either an idiot or a liar. They're merely "hiding" it by writing pneumonia on the death certificate, which suggests that's just standard practice in Chinese hospitals. It wasn't exactly rocket science to work this out.
Post by: andrea on March 29, 2020, 09:31:44 am
Numbers could be underreported even without malice. In the most affected areas in Italy there are a lot of people dying out of the hospitals, which means that the cause of death can't be pinned down on the virus. In some places, people are reporting that the number of deaths above he expected number for this period is 4-10 times the number of reported coronavirus deaths. Right now I just heard it on the news, but maybe I should look for the actual published studies (or rather news articles, I really doubt they had time to peer review). And that number of course includes people who didn't have the virus, but other illnesses or afflictions which couldn't be cured because of collapsed hospitals.
Point is, it could be that China is being honest with numbers, and yet that there are more deaths than reported simply because they got overwhelmed like everyone else.
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 09:34:47 am
So anyone spinning it that the Chinese are "hiding" flu deaths is either an idiot or a liar. They're merely "hiding" it by writing pneumonia on the death certificate, which suggests that's just standard practice in Chinese hospitals. It wasn't exactly rocket science to work this out.
They are not lying, but intentionally or not they are obscuring data.
Especially as pneumonia is not an illness, it is a condition with more than one illness causing it.
Similarly declaring "serious illness" as death cause would not be lying but it would be obscuring data.
"hiding flu deaths" is more, because it requires deliberate malicious action. It may or may not be present, but it seems possible. Manipulating data is popular everywhere, and there is no real good reason to lump all pneumonia deaths together. But maybe it is just some old tradition/standard.
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 09:37:56 am
And anyway, we don't even know whether the reports are really accurate that they don't know how many people died from flu. Perhaps they list pneumonia as the primary cause of death, unlike the USA which lists influenza, but they list "tested positive for influenza" in the medical records as well, just not listed as the primary cause of death.
All we know is that for most pneumonia deaths that's listed as the primary cause of death, and that this is apparently different to what's listed on American ones. If it's just a difference in how their record system works, then the original complaint would be comparing apples and oranges.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 09:38:20 am
Quote
Point is, it could be that China is being honest with numbers, and yet that there are more deaths than reported simply because they got overwhelmed like everyone else.I think it's half and half. At this point I dont trust any goverment not to be duplicitous woth this stuff, but I also think the unreliability of numbers can come for reasons not linked to this (number of tests limited by test availability, overwhelmed healthcare systems, etc...)
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 09:45:47 am
Maybe they are counting only people who died in hospitals? Maybe most of them are hidden in pneumonia statistics like with flu?
There's a colossal difference between lumping bronchial pneumonia and influenzal pneumonia deaths together, which is just poor record keeping in terms of getting accurate data, and the claim that there's a government conspiracy to hide deaths. Saying it's sort of the same thing is extremely misleading and biased.
In general it is hard to distinguish "collecting useful statistics is hard", "collecting data failed because people lied to us", "people with good intentions made mistake", "data optimized for different use case", "adjusting data to reduce systematic errors during data collection", "biased statistics, collected to support something", "manipulating data", "fabricating data", "not adjusting data to reduce systematic errors during data collection" and "badly adjusting data to reduce systematic errors during data collection".
And Lizardman’s Constant Is 4% ( https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/ )
I agree that this such mistake is not sufficient to support conclusion that China government is deliberately misrepresenting data.
And anyway, it is more likely that director of some Flu Death Prevention task force would be responsible for that than someone top level of government. It is unlike Xinjiang re-education camps case ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps ) where lying was/is a deliberate action from top levels of government.
So anyone spinning it that the Chinese are "hiding" flu deaths is either an idiot or a liar.But with more evidence that it is deliberate? Then such person would not be idiot/liar.
They're not hiding the deaths they're just labeling them differently.That is exactly hiding them. Intentional or not, it is effective in misleading at least some - see http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=175464.msg8115488#msg8115488
Post by: TamerVirus on March 29, 2020, 09:48:16 am
They're not hiding the deaths they're just labeling them differently.Then how many Coronavirus deaths were labeled pneumonia deaths and thus not part the official count?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 09:54:31 am
Probably many. Its happening everywhere. We are missing hundreds of deaths. And probably hundreds of thousands of diagnosis.They're not hiding the deaths they're just labeling them differently.Then how many Coronavirus deaths were labeled pneumonia deaths and thus not part the official count?
Chances are we will never know
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 09:58:01 am
Likely real total death count cab be estimated by calculating excess death count. But it lumps together direct Covid19 deaths, death caused/avoided by shutdowns, deaths indirectly caused by overloaded hospitals...Probably many. Its happening everywhere. We are missing hundreds of deaths. And probably hundreds of thousands of diagnosis.They're not hiding the deaths they're just labeling them differently.Then how many Coronavirus deaths were labeled pneumonia deaths and thus not part the official count?
Chances are we will never know
Ut can be adjusted (for example to dicount reduced deaths in traffic accidents), but see "statistics is hard" part.
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 09:58:18 am
They're not hiding the deaths they're just labeling them differently.Then how many Coronavirus deaths were labeled pneumonia deaths and thus not part the official count?
that's definitely a possibility, but as many previous year's "flu death" figures demonstrate, that's not something they started doing this year, it seems to be normal procedure in China to list the proximate cause of death certificates. So that would indicate that there wasn't really any political pressure to "not list coronavirus" on death certificates, because that's not how they fill out those certificates in the first place.
So they need a coronavirus death tally, but that doesn't mean they need to change how they fill out the death certificates, they should just keep the tally separately and not base it on what's written on death certificates. I don't personally know how they keep the tally, so the point that some people said they got a death certificate listing pneumonia might be entirely irrelevant to how the figures are being tracked. If someone is tested positive then dies of pneumonia, then keep track of them as a coronavirus death. The complaint was that some people who were never tested died, and were listed as pneumonia early in the piece. However, in those cases it would be irresponsible to add them to any official tally: you're going to get false positives and false negatives, and most people dying of pneumonia are still from the flu.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 10:01:45 am
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 10:04:12 am
... I can tell you death certificates are a bit shitty in general. You have to summarize very complex medical histories in three or four phrases. It lends itself to misunderstandings.
And it can impact people in various ways. See suicides classified as accidents.
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 10:06:33 am
The person who committed suicide is already dead, so they no longer care how it's classified, and their loved-ones are probably better off thinking it was an accident.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 10:28:01 am
Suicides classified as accidents doesn't actually hurt anyone, except for under-reporting suicides.That can hurt people.
But anyway I was thinking more on both problems on how you write it and how the guy coding it reads it.
For instance. In the ROI you have to list an immediate cause of desth and a "chain of causes". Eg pneumonia -> neutropaenia in the context of chemotherapy -> acute myeloid leukaemia -> secondary myelodisplastic syndrome.
Now, my question, and one which tbh to this date I'd not bothered too much with, is how this is coded afterwards. Do they code it as a pneumonia death? A leukaemia death? Treatment related?
Post by: Teneb on March 29, 2020, 11:56:18 am
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 12:01:02 pm
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 01:18:23 pm
"Thomas Schaefer, the finance minister of Germany's Hesse state, has committed suicide apparently after becoming "deeply worried" over how to cope with the economic fallout from the coronavirus, state premier Volker Bouffier said Sunday.
Schaefer, 54, was found dead near a railway track on Saturday. The Wiesbaden prosecution's office said they believe he died by suicide."
https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/german-minister-commits-suicide-after-coronavirus-crisis-worries-1.1585484975297
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 01:48:55 pm
In spanish but probably runs through google translate.
It explains a few of the tremendous lies that healthcare professionals were told about this epidemic.
Post by: thompson on March 29, 2020, 05:39:13 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 06:02:10 pm
Going back to the early discussion, the 20-40k flu deaths in the US aren’t measured from death certificates. It’s calculated from the “excess mortality” during the flu season. That is, how many more overall deaths you see during the flu season relative to comparable periods outside the flu season. Reason is simple enough: of a person has leukaemia but gets the flu and dies, is it a flu death or a leukaemia death? Leukaemia is a damn sight more dangerous than the flu, so it’s almost silly to classify it as an influenza death. But the flu might have pushed them over the edge. China probably has excess mortality studies to estimate flu deaths as well. It’s all very well not to trust Chinese statistics, but let’s be sensible about it.https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/overview.htm
According to this, this is what they are doing
Quote
(NCHS) mortality surveillance data – NCHS collects death certificate data from state vital statistics offices for all deaths occurring in the United States. Pneumonia and influenza (P&I) deaths are identified based on ICD-10 multiple cause of death codes. NCHS surveillance data are aggregated by the week of death occurrence. To allow for collection of enough data to produce a stable P&I percentage, NCHS surveillance data are released one week after the week of death. The NCHS surveillance data are used to calculate the percent of all deaths occurring in a given week that had pneumonia and/or influenza listed as a cause of death. The P&I percentage for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. The P&I percentage is compared to a seasonal baseline of P&I deaths that is calculated using a periodic regression model incorporating a robust regression procedure applied to data from the previous five years. An increase of 1.645 standard deviations above the seasonal baseline of P&I deaths is considered the “epidemic threshold,” i.e., the point at which the observed proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia or influenza was significantly higher than would be expected at that time of the year in the absence of substantial influenza-related mortality.
Tbh I'm thinking that... I dont know how death certificates are in the US but like I said before, in Europe they are fairly free form. Dependimg on what is written in, and how however is om the other end codes in... I think cases might be missed out.
Also btw: I'd say that saying leukaemia is more important than the flu... I dont know this is all relative to what you're measuring. For the guy who has leukaemia its clear what his biggest problem is and what might complicate the rest. But leukaemia is not contagious. While the flu is...
It's funny how I'd never stopped to consider the underlying paperwork and number crunching of fatality reports, or at least hadnt for a long time.
Post by: thompson on March 29, 2020, 08:19:16 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 29, 2020, 08:33:32 pm
hahaha so many people's gonna' die and the officials in this fucking state are just going to go ~who can say what happened to them~
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 29, 2020, 08:36:54 pm
Who's very name will apparently prompt Google to give you a COVID-19 warning box. Oh well, into the Gulf it goes.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 09:32:43 pm
Post by: ZBridges on March 29, 2020, 09:35:36 pm
There is talk about universal dnrs in the us. In the UK de facto already happening.
Specifically, only for individuals that are confirmed to be infected by COVID-19.
Post by: mko on March 29, 2020, 09:35:50 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 29, 2020, 09:37:27 pm
I can't see that ever been officially enforced - any hospital that tried would quickly be court ordered by the boomer brigade. Of course, many things happen in hospitals that nurses know of, but never speak aloud.
Post by: sluissa on March 29, 2020, 10:16:06 pm
Post by: coalboat on March 29, 2020, 10:26:30 pm
Some of the workers have to walk for hundreds of miles back to home when the economy in New Delhi is halted. Non first-world countries face even bigger problems than Europe and US.
Post by: Ziusudra on March 29, 2020, 10:31:37 pm
It's would be hilarious if it weren't so morbid that we spent 8 years arguing about fake "Death Panels" under Obama and here we're literally talking about the reality of the situation under Trump.We always had that reality - groups of people who decide who gets what health care. Only instead of answering to the people or their representatives, they answer only to the insurance company shareholders.
Post by: Yoink on March 29, 2020, 10:37:02 pm
Post by: wierd on March 29, 2020, 10:44:26 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 29, 2020, 10:48:33 pm
If you think they're going to stick to confirmed COVID19 patients you're more optimistic than I am. At present anyone and everyone can be a covid patient, regardless of the presence of symptoms.There is talk about universal dnrs in the us. In the UK de facto already happening.
Specifically, only for individuals that are confirmed to be infected by COVID-19.
I know of two cases in London where people died of conditions which weren't covid. Treatment was delayed because of fear that they might be covid19+
Post by: thompson on March 29, 2020, 10:51:04 pm
I just thank all the gods that liquor stores are considered "essential services" and as such aren't required to shut down by the Aus government.
Every job is essential, apparently. Although I appreciate the sentiment behind it. People are doing it pretty tough at the moment.
Post by: Yoink on March 29, 2020, 11:03:47 pm
When they run out of hand sanitizer, where else can you buy refined ethanol, eh?Haha, that reminds me of a joke I forgot to make - what are the alcoholics supposed to drink if you paranoid folks keep buying all the hand sanitiser?
Not entirely sure what you mean here, but I guess a lot of jobs are essential to the people working them. RIP.I just thank all the gods that liquor stores are considered "essential services" and as such aren't required to shut down by the Aus government.
Every job is essential, apparently. Although I appreciate the sentiment behind it. People are doing it pretty tough at the moment.
I do feel for them, but I'm just glad I can still buy booze, ya know?
Post by: Reelya on March 29, 2020, 11:19:37 pm
When they run out of hand sanitizer, where else can you buy refined ethanol, eh?
Wash your hands with methylated spirits.
Post by: wierd on March 29, 2020, 11:28:17 pm
Post by: misko27 on March 29, 2020, 11:43:14 pm
I just thank all the gods that liquor stores are considered "essential services" and as such aren't required to shut down by the Aus government.Liquour stores are also considered essential here in New York. This was met with much rejoicing.
Post by: wierd on March 30, 2020, 12:35:14 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 30, 2020, 01:49:30 am
Medical staff now more often than not sleep in the bathrooms and waiting areas of the hospitals they work at, because they, together with all their belongings, were thrown out of their houses.
That's India for you. Such a lovely country.
Post by: WealthyRadish on March 30, 2020, 02:05:20 am
That's India for you. Such a lovely country.
Man, glad that isn't happening here in the US.
(obviously, it goes without saying that it is (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-nurses-face-eviction-housing-discrimination-from-scared-landlords/ar-BB11Oa7k))
Post by: IcyTea31 on March 30, 2020, 03:45:13 am
Post by: Jimmy on March 30, 2020, 04:11:24 am
So I guess car dealerships are an essential service right now?
Not that I'm complaining. I need a new vehicle to get home delivery of medications happening ASAP. So for me, I guess it actually was essential.
Post by: Frumple on March 30, 2020, 07:07:51 am
Post by: McTraveller on March 30, 2020, 07:57:59 am
Also worldwide plots had a day of growth factor below 1: daily new cases yesterday dropped to 59000 compared to 67000 the day before.
Maybe, maybe all these social distancing things do work?
Post by: Kagus on March 30, 2020, 08:14:43 am
When they run out of hand sanitizer, where else can you buy refined ethanol, eh?Haha, that reminds me of a joke I forgot to make - what are the alcoholics supposed to drink if you paranoid folks keep buying all the hand sanitiser?
Mouthwash, same as ever
Post by: coalboat on March 30, 2020, 08:19:12 am
Meanwhile in India, doctors have written a letter to the government asking for help, after a lot of them have been thrown out of their houses by angry mobs and neighbors, who do not wish to live nextdoor to what they see as high risk infection vectors.
In Februrary (when the situation was worst), some stores refused to serve doctors and nurses. This can happen in anywhere. But there were also hotels near hospital providing accommodation for doctors when public transportation was suspended in Wuhan. Not all people can act honorably or even sensibly in the face of disaster, but some do.
Post by: nenjin on March 30, 2020, 08:21:42 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 30, 2020, 09:18:06 am
Post by: TamerVirus on March 30, 2020, 09:21:55 am
The borough of Queens getting hammered really badly, especially in the lower wealth high density immigrant communities
Post by: Kagus on March 30, 2020, 10:31:19 am
They're going to be putting certain patients on hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir, alone or combined with interferon-β 1a
That... I dunno, I'm no medical professional, but I was under the impression that all of those things were somewhat unpleasant to go through just on their own. Curious to see how they play together.
Hope they get some good effect out of it...
Post by: martinuzz on March 30, 2020, 11:11:57 am
EDIT: in other news, the near complete stop to air travel poses a problem. Parking spots for civilian airlines are becomeing so scarce that military bases are now used to park them.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 30, 2020, 11:24:32 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 30, 2020, 11:29:05 am
Post by: McTraveller on March 30, 2020, 11:29:37 am
Post by: Max™ on March 30, 2020, 02:42:20 pm
Trump had a press conference with leaders of various corporations about what they were doing and kept surprising them by shaking their hands, after they had all been touching the same podium... this seems like a good thing, right?
Post by: ZBridges on March 30, 2020, 03:30:31 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 30, 2020, 03:56:46 pm
According to Howard-Browne, who is a fan of Trump, the 'phantom virus' is a jewish conspiracy to close down churches.He claims he alone will heal all Americans from the virus, and social distancing is thus unnescessary.
The police were preparing for an armed raid on the church, for Howard-Browne is notorious for his love of guns and private security.
But this proved unnescessary when Howard-Browne turned himself in at the police station today.
EDIT: In other news, a judge has aborted the anti-abortion measure the state of Texas had declared.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on March 30, 2020, 07:55:38 pm
Need an opinion. First of all, I've been traveling to my parents home to work since I can;t work from home since I just moved and I got no internet hookup yet. Yes, I know this was unwise to start with.
So my wife is a nurse at an old folks home, and we just found out that the hospital that her patients make regular trips to when they fall or what have you has multiple cases of COVID-19. This is basically a daily occurrence, patients going to and from.
My dad is at risk, so this means I could officially be a vector. You think it's good to stop coming here to work? My boss is fantastic and I'm not too worried about my job going kaput if I have to stop working for a week until I have internet, but I really wanted you guys' thoughts as well.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 30, 2020, 07:56:43 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 30, 2020, 07:57:30 pm
Joining the discussion!Definitely tell your boss it's a quarantine risk and then try and rush your ISP.
Need an opinion. First of all, I've been traveling to my parents home to work since I can;t work from home since I just moved and I got no internet hookup yet. Yes, I know this was unwise to start with.
So my wife is a nurse at an old folks home, and we just found out that the hospital that her patients make regular trips to when they fall or what have you has multiple cases of COVID-19. This is basically a daily occurrence, patients going to and from.
My dad is at risk, so this means I could officially be a vector. You think it's good to stop coming here to work? My boss is fantastic and I'm not too worried about my job going kaput if I have to stop working for a week until I have internet, but I really wanted you guys' thoughts as well.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on March 30, 2020, 08:00:51 pm
I'd stop yes. Thats how these things spread. Limit your social contacts...
Joining the discussion!Definitely tell your boss it's a quarantine risk and then try and rush your ISP.
Need an opinion. First of all, I've been traveling to my parents home to work since I can;t work from home since I just moved and I got no internet hookup yet. Yes, I know this was unwise to start with.
So my wife is a nurse at an old folks home, and we just found out that the hospital that her patients make regular trips to when they fall or what have you has multiple cases of COVID-19. This is basically a daily occurrence, patients going to and from.
My dad is at risk, so this means I could officially be a vector. You think it's good to stop coming here to work? My boss is fantastic and I'm not too worried about my job going kaput if I have to stop working for a week until I have internet, but I really wanted you guys' thoughts as well.
That was fast, thanks. I'm sort of aware that my judgement is a bit compromised here. I'm very much inclined to treat things like this with some, shall we say, prideful indifference.
This COVID is no joke through, and I want to make sure I do the right thing.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 30, 2020, 08:02:22 pm
On one hand, there's definitely a real risk, and even very intelligent humans are pretty infamous about undervaluing invisible threats until they have their hands around our necks. You could be an asymptomatic infectious case right now. Or you might wake up sick tomorrow. What I do know for sure is that people with risk factors appear to have a habit of going from first cough to lung failure at a rate and speed that is shocking even hardened nurses.
On the other hand, the economic disruption means you're in a very atypical situation vis-a-vis work. You both are probably at more risk of being fired and at more risk of getting your way than usual. You could, I suppose, easily claim you had no choice in the matter and your boss would be unable to prove otherwise.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on March 30, 2020, 08:15:51 pm
This is thus far an unprecedented kind of disaster - 9/11 was not so protracted, the recession not so publicly deadly, wars not so close to the soft shores of the """""developed""""" world.
On one hand, there's definitely a real risk, and even very intelligent humans are pretty infamous about undervaluing invisible threats until they have their hands around our necks. You could be an asymptomatic infectious case right now. Or you might wake up sick tomorrow. What I do know for sure is that people with risk factors appear to have a habit of going from first cough to lung failure at a rate and speed that is shocking even hardened nurses.
On the other hand, the economic disruption means you're in a very atypical situation vis-a-vis work. You both are probably at more risk of being fired and at more risk of getting your way than usual. You could, I suppose, easily claim you had no choice in the matter and your boss would be unable to prove otherwise.
I appreciate this.
Yeah I think that's my best choice right now. I am covered for 15 days off the bat of unable to work (last I checked) and I've got sick days I can probably use. My hope is that I will be out fo work for no more than a week. Once my internet gets hooked up I can start working from my actual home.
Thanks for the support guys.
Post by: Folly on March 31, 2020, 12:44:14 am
Also, it's not a fucking invisible enemy. It's a very small and mindlessly propagating organism.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 12:51:14 am
Regardless of what knowledge you have about covid, the most likely outcome is that you still will either over or under estimate the precautions you should be taking because of this, just as you do with most long-term and invisible threats. You cannot place a bottle of climate change on your table and say "here is the danger". Since we're still developing protocol on this disease, it is all the more likely outcome.
Post by: da_nang on March 31, 2020, 01:15:00 am
It's a very small and mindlessly propagating organism.They're replicators, technically.
Normally we'd use guns, but these seem to be of the Asuran variety. And we all know how those went down.
Post by: Egan_BW on March 31, 2020, 01:39:09 am
Also, it's not a fucking invisible enemy. It's a very small and mindlessly propagating organism.nice irrelevant pedantry
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 01:42:09 am
Can we even beat this thing I wonder?
Post by: wierd on March 31, 2020, 01:48:41 am
assuming the labs dont shut down, vaccine is about 1 year away.
There is light at the end of the tunnel that is not (another) oncoming train.
Post by: ZBridges on March 31, 2020, 01:53:33 am
Post by: wierd on March 31, 2020, 01:58:03 am
Post by: Yoink on March 31, 2020, 02:02:01 am
Normally we'd use guns, but these seem to be of the Asuran variety. And we all know how those went down.Sorry, but what does Asuran mean in this context?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 02:04:19 am
Time will tell whether covid can stay circulating in the human population post-herd immunity, if we do indeed get to a herd immunity situation, and how well the mutation rate keeps pace with vaccines and other treatments. Regardless, I think it will probably continue to exist through bats, pangolins, and any other zoonotic jumps it may have made.
The nearly-certain thing is that future outbreaks will be possible, but the rhythm and severity of those outbreaks aren't clear yet. Worst-case scenario does involve the human lifespan getting functionally capped at 70, though. Best-case, these antiviral treatments prove widely effective and we develop a stable vaccine barrier. Until the genes shift their data, as they always do, and SARS-3 emerges...
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 02:22:16 am
In other words - the same as we have now but with 5 or 10 times more deaths.
SARS had case fatality rate of 11% and apparently left many people with severe long term (many lifelong) major injuries.
And not stopping bat/pangolin/whatever eating in China makes it nearly certain. Yes, they recently made some attempts to limit wildlife eating. They also did it after SARS-CoV-1 but restrictions were soon lifted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2020, 02:25:10 am
Post by: Inarius on March 31, 2020, 02:50:38 am
Early quarantine works !
I agree with Reelya : if the epidemy was deadlier a lot of things would have change.
And on top of them : earlier detection and measures from China.
And secondly people wouldn't break quarantine as easily as now with a 10 or 20% death rate !
In the end, less casualty.
Look at the flu, it's quite benign but still kills many people every year.
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 03:28:32 am
But there are reasons that very lethal viruses don't spread as much. It's a trade-off. Covid-19 is deadlier in balance because it's so mild in some people, therefore you get more silent carriers. The 11% SARS didn't spread far precisely due to its lethality: it made it easier to notice cases. Note that MERS killed about 1 in 3 and infected only 2500 people, SARS was around 10% and infected 8000. This particular one kills around 1%, but that counter-intuitively is why it's so deadly.That is why I worry about long asymptomatic period. HIV was noticed in 1981, while first known case was in 1966 in Sweden. And we know that originated earlier, elsewhere. Mostly thanks to ridiculously long asymptomatic period, despite very limited transmission.
New SARS version with high lethality and longer asymptomatic period, with ability to infect during at least part of asymptomatic period? That would be a catastrophe.
And secondly people wouldn't break quarantine as easily as now with a 10 or 20% death rate !I am quite pessimistic here - yes, less would break but still not all.
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2020, 04:09:36 am
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/trump-says-keeping-us-covid-19-deaths-to-100000-would-be-a-very-good-job
The most likely explanation of the baffling outburst is that Trump's been humiliated by having to backtrack on his plans to re-open the economy by Easter, so instead of having people focus on that, he's concocted this fake "doctors stealing all the facemasks" conspiracy theory for us to focus on instead.
Post by: coalboat on March 31, 2020, 04:12:09 am
I am really, really scared about China producing SARS-CoV-3, combining current infection spread & SARS-Cov-1 death rate.
In other words - the same as we have now but with 5 or 10 times more deaths.
SARS had case fatality rate of 11% and apparently left many people with severe long term (many lifelong) major injuries.
And not stopping bat/pangolin/whatever eating in China makes it nearly certain. Yes, they recently made some attempts to limit wildlife eating. They also did it after SARS-CoV-1 but restrictions were soon lifted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome
Despite the reputation, eating wild animal is not common in China and the animals are mostly imported, while in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America, wild animal is the main source of meat for many local communities. Whether pangolin is eaten in China or not, the virus will find a human host sooner or later.
However this virus has a relatively low lethality, unlike ebola, which rarely leaves Africa because the patient cannot live long enough to travel far. Before global outbreak, for many developed countries it's either a Chinese version of ebola - deadly but rarely reaching the developed world, or a flu - because it's hard to believe a serious pandemic can really happen in modern society.
If people had taken more seriously about what is happening in countries outside EU and NA, they would have mobilized earlier to fight the pandemic. Admittedly in these countries there's usually a lack of freedom of press, but when people pay attention, more information will make their way through the censorship.
Post by: Greiger on March 31, 2020, 04:31:07 am
When I was a kid in rural Pennsylvania my dad would go out into the woods for a day or so with his buddies and come back with deer, rabbits, and squirrels. Sometimes even some kind of bird. We ate that perfectly fine, and then there's pasture raised cattle that my grandparents had on their farm. While my grandparents had dairy cattle, I imagine the ones bred for meat are allowed to wander off unsupervised in pastures and forests just as theirs were. On top of that people fish up wild fish crab and lobster all the time.
While I'm not disbelieving the whole eating wild animals give risk of that stuff, I'm not understanding what the difference is. People eat wild critters all the time, what causes it to be a problem elsewhere but not in the U.S.?
Post by: Ziusudra on March 31, 2020, 04:58:28 am
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 05:02:08 am
https://www.reddit.com/r/facepalm/comments/fl1aec/from_my_college_microbiology_textbook_c2009_no/
"the animal reservoir and live animal markets in China are still present allowing animal-to-human transfer to once again happen" - excerpt about coronaviruses from a textbook.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
When I was a kid in rural Pennsylvania my dad would go out into the woods for a day or so with his buddies and come back with deer, rabbits, and squirrels. Sometimes even some kind of bird. (...) People eat wild critters all the time, what causes it to be a problem elsewhere but not in the U.S.?How many people do to this in USA? How many do it in China?
Post by: delphonso on March 31, 2020, 05:24:53 am
This issue is complicated is basically my point. To stop the practice totally would be read as imperial western powers stomping on cultural traditions. To illegalize it locally might cause an uproar.
Post by: da_nang on March 31, 2020, 05:31:49 am
Nanite replicators from Stargate: Atlantis.Normally we'd use guns, but these seem to be of the Asuran variety. And we all know how those went down.Sorry, but what does Asuran mean in this context?
Post by: martinuzz on March 31, 2020, 06:33:01 am
Yes, this virus most likely transferred to humans through someone eating raw bat or pangolin.
But aren't we just as much at risk from, say, a flu virus mutating to be just as deadly from our own western swine and bird industries? Their sheer numbers provide excellent mutation opportunities.
We already have regular outbreaks of swine- and birdflu amongst animal populations in our countries.
Animal welfare is not going to increase after this pandemic (unless everone suddenly becomes a vegetarian).
There's already some talk here of abolishing free range and biological ranching and go full indoors controlled bio-industry, to minimize contact between our animal meatbags and local wildlife (including humans).
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 06:44:24 am
But aren't we just as much at risk from, say, a flu virus mutating to be just as deadly from our own western swine and bird industries? Their sheer numbers provide excellent mutation opportunities.
We already have regular outbreaks of swine- and birdflu amongst animal populations in our countries.
AFAIK animal-to-human disease contact is drastically reduced via mechanization of farming, better quality control and reduced number of species used for meat.
Industrial farms are bad for multiple reasons (especially if you care at all about cruel treatment of animals), but from what I know risk of producing new pandemic via producing new virus is not very high?
Though mad cow disease was direct result of insane insutrial farm practices (feeding plant-eating cows with ground bones).
And SARS-Cov-2 being nearly exact repeat of SARS-Cov-1 seems to suggest/indicate that something China-specific is going wrong.
Post by: da_nang on March 31, 2020, 06:56:36 am
Free-range animals aren't the problem. Hunting isn't the problem. The plague didn't start on the farm nor the hunter's lodge. Nor would it spread like crazy on the farm or on the hunting grounds.
Don't have large open animal markets. Prepare and sell food with sanitation in mind. Identify and restrict sick animals and tainted animal products. Reduce the incidence of sick animals by improving sanitation of their living habitats.
Optionally, stop giving them antibiotics all the time. The last thing we need is an antibiotic-resistant pandemic.
Post by: wierd on March 31, 2020, 06:56:44 am
that is what is going wrong.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 07:08:36 am
It will be interesting when all this is over to compare mortality rates in 2020 with 2019.
Because all things point to ALL COUNTRIES doing extremedly sloppy record keeping
(https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-30/tracking-the-coronavirus-why-does-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html?outputType=amp)
I doubt China is an exception and I wouldnt be surprised they have a higher number of covid deaths that werent listed because they were never confirmed, or were listed as something else. I'd not be shocked to find the real number is 2-3x or more. Similar things have been seen elsewhere. Granted it's impossible to tell how many of these excess deaths are from covid and how many are from actually other things which dont get treated because of hospital saturation and because people avoid going to A&E due to covid fears (which is happening)
Really it's odd how the same problems and mistakes are happening over and over all the world over
Post by: Bralbaard on March 31, 2020, 07:18:42 am
And SARS-Cov-2 being nearly exact repeat of SARS-Cov-1 seems to suggest/indicate that something China-specific is going wrong.
Don't forget that china has an absolutely huge population. If a virus is going to jump to a random patient zero, there is a much higher chance that that person happens to live in china, vs the USA.
Virus outbreaks happen in other countries as well. Remember the mexican flu? It did not turn out to be dangerous, but it could have been.
Sure, close contact with animals increases the risk, but that situation is not unique to china either. It happens in many, many countries. It is just that with a large population like in china, the odds are that bad things happen there and not elsewhere. From what I understand though, china will be likely to crack down on the animal markets. Not sure how that will work out though, it will be difficult to change a cultural thing like that. As I said before, for a comparison: it is well-established that america's rampant gun ownership is problematic, but it is never going to change, no matter how many people die. However if any regime can force a change, it will be China.
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2020, 07:29:01 am
MERS happened too.
Post by: Frumple on March 31, 2020, 07:31:00 am
How many people do to this in USA? How many do it in China?
Incidentally, y'know, the so called spanish flu originated stateside :P
Post by: TD1 on March 31, 2020, 07:40:09 am
Post by: Max™ on March 31, 2020, 07:46:31 am
It's the unclean and close-quarters keeping of many animal species that's the issue, not their 'wild' status so much.Yeah, cages stacked on cages with feces and food and other secretions mixing in a big dumb petri dish is the problem.
The known cases in the US is closing in on 170k as I type this.
We're still only testing obvious symptomatic patients for the most part, it's hard to find negative test results though they are of critical importance when it comes to estimating what sort of measures need to be taken, so it's a good thing the agencies responsible for tracking this information and providing it are... *touches ear* uh huh... uh huh... FUCKING WHAT... shit... ok, well, yeah, remember when that one website stopped providing negative testing numbers because it might make the administration look bad? Apparently that was THE website which is supposed to do this.
Ideally we'd know about ~170k cases and have done nearly 2 million tests, but it's completely possible we've inverted those numbers and only gotten 15~20k negative test results.
It did surpass 9/11 in death toll at some point yesterday... though I must point out that is just confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 so far.
Whenever we end up with a better idea of the excess mortality rate[n] we can realistically attribute to this, you could write a book on how to not handle a pandemic and call it "n Hidden 9/11's: How NOT to Handle a Pandemic" if it isn't something horrifying like 100 or more implying ~290k extra deaths which is unfortunately not a possibility we can readily dismiss.
It's actually even more surreal watching this trainwreck happen with the direct memory of how utterly bizarre that morning 19 years ago was, I didn't approve of anything dubya was doing really, but I never felt such a gaping void of anything resembling leadership as we do right now.
I mean, I knew we had fallen pretty goddamn far with all the republican bullshit prior to Trump, but I guess the constant low level crisis of his presidency in general made it easy to overlook just how calm everything really was and how lucky he has been the whole time that no real crisis popped up because he is so much less than we needed it's hard to be properly scared.
You can't overreact to a pandemic, btw, because overreaction looks like the handful of countries that jumped on this shit and locked it down, and the only way that is incorrect is if for some strange reason the virus had burned itself out weeks ago... but it's never the wrong choice.
We, here in the USA, are a case study on why you only ever regret underreacting to shit like this, don't be like us, for fuck's sake.
Post by: McTraveller on March 31, 2020, 08:09:13 am
Post by: Iduno on March 31, 2020, 08:11:01 am
How many people do to this in USA? How many do it in China?Tens of thousandsWait, sorry, our licensed hunter population alone is over 10 million, so millions do it in the US yearly. It's bunches either way. Sporadic hunting is particularly common in rural areas -- just for my personal locality, I'd guess pretty easy better than half of it has eaten wild venison in the last year, ferex, nevermind other stuff -- and it's not super unknown to do stuff like feed fresh roadkill (deer or hog, usually) to prisoners and whatnot. Maybe wet markets increase likelihood, but they're damn sure not the only source of that kind of human/animal interaction, not by a long shot.
Incidentally, y'know, the so called spanish flu originated stateside :P
ALso, alligators, snakes, squirrels, and some birds don't require hunting licenses. People eat weird shit here, too.
Post by: misko27 on March 31, 2020, 08:18:18 am
But aren't we just as much at risk from, say, a flu virus mutating to be just as deadly from our own western swine and bird industries? Their sheer numbers provide excellent mutation opportunities.See the issue most commonly associated with pandemics via US farms is overuse of antibiotics which create antibiotic immune bacteria. Which is horrible, mind, and obviously bacteria!= viruses, but its decidedly a different issue than lack of sanitation.
We already have regular outbreaks of swine- and birdflu amongst animal populations in our countries.
Also, uh, to be blunt, there's a bit of a difference between American rednecks in their rural homes eating weird shit and getting sick vs Chinese equivalent of rednecks eating weird shit in an urban environment. One is gonna get himself sick, the other will infect a couple dozen others.
America is simply vastly less dense than China, or even Europe or India. Who knows how many diseases end up isolated in remote communities and never get a chance to spread?
Post by: coalboat on March 31, 2020, 09:14:49 am
In a word, bush meat is expensive and uncommon.
SARS and COV19 get out of control because coronavirus doesn't kill the patient immediately, so they spread around the world. It is more important to find ways to discover epidemic early and act in time than to focus on bush meat which is far from the biggest problem in China.
It is always easier to blame China for eating wild animal than to actually push for freedom of speech and journalists' safety.
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 10:25:37 am
Closure of parks, playgrounds, beaches, hotels and all hotel-like objects. And botanical gardens, zoological gardens, hairdressers, tatoo salons, cosmetic salons (I think that most or all of them was closed already).
And for some reason renting bicycles is also banned.
Note that hotels and short term rent is closed since 2 April. All people staying there will evicted (wat) on 2 Apriil.
Limited capacity of all vehicles with more than 9 people to half of seats (only public transport was affected so far), with cars exempt.
Factories/offices must close or ensure at least 1.5m of separation and supply of gloves.
Limited shop capacity to 3 * till count. So shop with 3 tills may have up to 9 customers. Shops also must supply gloves to clients.
Between 10 and 12 shops limited to people with age 65 and more.
Minimum 2m between pedestrians, including families. Wheelchairs, children, people unable to move on their own are exempt.
Children of age below 18 not allowed to leave home without an adult.
Government offices are obligated to move to remote access whenever possible.
Post by: Rolan7 on March 31, 2020, 10:30:56 am
Trump just openly implied NYC hospitals are involved in an organized face mask stealing racket, probably to explain-away shortages. It's not the administration's fault you can't get facemasks it's those evil doctors: "it's worse than hoarding ... they're going out the back door"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/trump-says-keeping-us-covid-19-deaths-to-100000-would-be-a-very-good-job
The most likely explanation of the baffling outburst is that Trump's been humiliated by having to backtrack on his plans to re-open the economy by Easter, so instead of having people focus on that, he's concocted this fake "doctors stealing all the facemasks" conspiracy theory for us to focus on instead.
Quote from: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/487900-trump-urges-states-secure-their-own-medical-supplies-coronavirus
State officials facing a shortage of masks and ventilators have asked Washington for help getting the supplies to protect health care workers and treat patients with the deadly coronavirus.You know on second thought, this isn't technically a contradiction. The governors just have to strike a deal with these
"They can get them faster by getting them on their own," Trump told reporters at the White House. "In other words, go through a supply chain that they may have because the governors, during normal times, the governors buy a lot of things, not necessarily through the federal government."
I don't think I care for modern lying, where's the art? The love of the craft? It's like when they just fling paint at the canvas and contextualize what sticks, or place an old yellow banana against a wall.
Post by: martinuzz on March 31, 2020, 10:57:41 am
No measures at all have been taken in the country.
Football competitions still continue, nothing is closed, and the president remains on his stance that 'it is better to die standing than to die on your knees'.
His advice to the 9.5 million inhabitants of Belarus:
- Go work in the countryside. The tractors and fields heal everything
- go to saunas a lot, the virus can't stand the heat
- play icehockey (last saturday, the president himself played in an amateur icehockey competition)
According to the president, this crisis is an excellent time to promote Belarus football while all other professional football in the world has ceased.
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2020, 11:06:12 am
Quote
Item: “The White House suddenly called off a venture to produce as many as 80,000 ventilators, out of concern that the estimated $1 billion price tag would be prohibitive.”
Item: Donald Trump on Thursday night said: “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators. You know, you go into major hospitals sometimes and they’ll have two ventilators. Now all of a sudden they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’”
It ... just staggers any ability to by cynical if you know what I mean.
"Now all of a sudden". Oh yeah, a very sudden an unexplained need for more ventilators.
Post by: martinuzz on March 31, 2020, 11:14:02 am
Post by: Bralbaard on March 31, 2020, 11:14:56 am
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2020, 11:15:53 am
Maybe Trump's just projecting since he's a scammy fuck who would steal medical supplies for profit if he ran a hospital, so he assumes everyone else would do it too, and is just lying about how much they need and how the stuff is used.
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 31, 2020, 11:34:44 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 31, 2020, 11:45:56 am
https://www.theroot.com/amazon-employee-says-he-was-fired-for-staging-walkout-t-1842584349
Post by: andrea on March 31, 2020, 12:02:30 pm
Post by: scriver on March 31, 2020, 12:21:25 pm
Bush meat consumption in China is exaggerated. It is unconventional food that some people try out to show off. Some may genuinely believe its healthy benefit, but mostly it's just some rich/bold people showing off. The market in Wuhan is in the same block of a police station. It provides raw material to nearby restaurants where officials hold their luxurious banquets... average Chinese definitely consume less wild animal than average Central African, probably even less than rural American - rifle is strictly forbidden, and there aren't many wild life to hunt for average villagers due to severe deforestration. Only poachers have the incentive to hunt in remote forest - mostly by trapping - because bush meat is sold at high price.
In a word, bush meat is expensive and uncommon.
SARS and COV19 get out of control because coronavirus doesn't kill the patient immediately, so they spread around the world. It is more important to find ways to discover epidemic early and act in time than to focus on bush meat which is far from the biggest problem in China.
It is always easier to blame China for eating wild animal than to actually push for freedom of speech and journalists' safety.
It's not about eating wild animals. Eating wild animals is extremely common here in Sweden (iirc ca 30% of the population here have hunting licenses, in Finland it's even higher), for example.
It's the markets such as the one it started at. It's about the trading of live animals under unsanitary conditions. Wuhan's rich elite can rest safe in that preventing Sars-3 doesn't mean they have to give up eating bats. Their restaurants just have to buy them dead and frozen instead of alive.
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 12:36:15 pm
They are using project created by Hackerspace Warszawa, they started distribution to hospitals and medical facilities.
Non profit action, visors are distributed for free (though they are asking for donations to produce more).
Post by: McTraveller on March 31, 2020, 02:30:13 pm
107!?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 02:31:03 pm
Post by: Bralbaard on March 31, 2020, 02:34:56 pm
https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6041676/101-jarige-coronapatient-hersteld-en-ontslagen-uit-ijsselland-ziekenhuis.html
Or that is a second 101 year old. Apparently she coughed in her elbow, told everyone to obey social distancing rules, and was a great patient, according to the doctors.
I however also read a report today that a 12 year old in Belgium died because of covid-19.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 03:34:29 pm
The problem is the sheer numbers of people it infects.
Post by: TD1 on March 31, 2020, 03:44:49 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 04:07:42 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 04:08:42 pm
Are there lasting respiratory issues?'ve read reports that some people do lose lung capacity. Seemed to happen mostly on severe cases (I'm guessing the SARS guys who actually require ICU). Havent seen a lot of news about that though. Tbh the biggest thing I've seen was a report about 12 patients in France
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 31, 2020, 04:14:59 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 31, 2020, 04:24:47 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 04:34:35 pm
Latest number I heard was ~20-25% of ICU patients have permanent respiratory damage.3 out of 12 patients. So it kind of fits more or less.
For what it's worth, covid or not intubation and whatnot apparently tends to be pretty rough on the body. Dunno if anyone's checked to see if the rates on that front are unusual for respiratory cases that requires ICU intervention, basically. It may not be particularly out of line for just "normal" cases of severe respiratory distress.
Could be. I've not chased that data yet TBH.
My own experience with respiratory distress is heavily biased, as when my patients ended up with a tube for respiratory distress they are invariably heavily immunocompromised (either due to their condition or due to treatment) and the disease is opportunistic in nature. And they either recovered their immune function quickly (if at all possible) or they invariably died pretty quickly. TBH for the most part the ones that I recall that recovered weren't that severely immunocompromised, and didn't require actual intubation, but did fine with either NIMV or high flow oxygen.
Post by: martinuzz on March 31, 2020, 05:08:30 pm
The corona virus is spreading uncontrollably amongst the crew members. He asks for immediate assistence to help quarantine the crew.
More than hundred crew members are infected.
According to commander Brett Crozier, the situation is dire.
'the spread of the disease is ongoing and accelerating', says Crozier, referring to the 'inherent space limitations' on the ship.
'We are not at war. Sailors don't need to die", Crozier wrote in a letter published by San Francisco Chronicle.
The marine vessel is currently docked in Guam. The Commander wants to put the entire crew in quarantine on the island.
The ship's previous port dock was in Vietnam, where some crew members already tested positive for the virus.
According to the commander, 'extensive precautions' were taken when the crew reboarded the vessel.
This is the first time the coronavirus has affected a US navy vessel at sea.
Post by: Frumple on March 31, 2020, 05:35:15 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 05:44:03 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 06:36:09 pm
Wait, is that the second or third carrier the crow plague's put out of action? Pretty sure there was already two, just not sure if that's one of the two or another one.Reported as first one
There are, like, 4? 5? So it's a pretty big deal
Post by: ArchAIngel on March 31, 2020, 07:06:49 pm
Eleven CV are currently in service in the USN.Wait, is that the second or third carrier the crow plague's put out of action? Pretty sure there was already two, just not sure if that's one of the two or another one.Reported as first one
There are, like, 4? 5? So it's a pretty big deal
That said, the military's pretty fucking harsh on "No you WILL obey" so quarantine will likely be pretty easily enforced.
Or if it's marines, you bribe them with crayons.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 07:14:46 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 31, 2020, 07:31:20 pm
I wonder how US military command feels about leaving one of their main naval assets unmanned though.
I suppose new crew will need to be flown in fast.. How many people work on such a vessel? Several hundred? More than 1000?
Sounds like a logistical nightmare, and then there's the issue of decontamination to prevent the new crew from getting infected.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 07:33:04 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 31, 2020, 07:42:33 pm
But yeah, crow plague's basically took down more of the US aircraft carrier group than like. Anything. Ever. Temporarily, I guess, but still.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 07:47:34 pm
Post by: Teneb on March 31, 2020, 08:59:27 pm
Post by: Max™ on March 31, 2020, 09:20:54 pm
Now that the infection numbers seem to be trending down I'm becoming anxious about the upcoming economic crisis too...What downward trend are you talking about, dude?
This morning in the states we were looking at a confirmed death toll of 3200, right now it's 3800 and about to hit 190k confirmed cases in the US.
Aren't you in China? You know better than anyone that the remarkable flatline of cases/deaths reported there requires whole truckloads of salt before being taken.
Post by: mko on March 31, 2020, 09:23:24 pm
Huh. Could have sworn there were at least two with covid issues. Could be misremembering, I guess.WW II had some sunken by Japanese - see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers#United_States
But yeah, crow plague's basically took down more of the US aircraft carrier group than like. Anything. Ever. Temporarily, I guess, but still.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 09:28:40 pm
Now that the infection numbers seem to be trending down I'm becoming anxious about the upcoming economic crisis too...What downward trend are you talking about, dude?
This morning in the states we were looking at a confirmed death toll of 3200, right now it's 3800 and about to hit 190k confirmed cases in the US.
Aren't you in China? You know better than anyone that the remarkable flatline of cases/deaths reported there requires whole truckloads of salt before being taken.
I'm talking about the downward trend where I am in number of infected per day, AKA, having passed peak covid. And no, I'm not in China. Nor in the US. I feel for you, I truly do. But I worry more about the immediate situation where I am (which is why I don't blame you for doing the same). And covidwise things are... not improving, because peak ICU comes a week or two after peak covid, but on the path to improvement. So now, I still worry about keeping my family and myself safe, because no we are not out of the fucking woods, but there is some light at the end of the tunnel, so I also worry about the upcoming covid-induced economic tsunami. NOT LEAST because if it's nasty enough it might impair the ability both to do intensive testing and quarantining of remaining cases after the lockdown's over, acquire more medical equipment, and to do ANOTHER lockdown later in the year when we have a potential second outbreak.
Post by: thompson on March 31, 2020, 09:50:39 pm
Now that the infection numbers seem to be trending down I'm becoming anxious about the upcoming economic crisis too...What downward trend are you talking about, dude?
This morning in the states we were looking at a confirmed death toll of 3200, right now it's 3800 and about to hit 190k confirmed cases in the US.
Aren't you in China? You know better than anyone that the remarkable flatline of cases/deaths reported there requires whole truckloads of salt before being taken.
I was sceptical of China’s figures at first, but given that South Korea managed to effectively suppress a large outbreak with less draconian measures it does seem to be legit. Just remember that “confirmed cases” is precisely that: total cases would include some unknown number of people who were sick but just stayed home, and a few cases in the community that are circulating undetected.
Good news: Australian has managed to maintain linear case growth for about a week. Looks like we might be able to bring it under control. Unfortunately, it also looks like significant restrictions will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
Post by: Max™ on March 31, 2020, 10:46:55 pm
He's going to keep trying to spin things in his favor and fuck me I hate this country for making it possible that despite facing down hundreds of thousands or maybe millions of deaths there will still be shitlickers who swear up and down that it's a hoax to take down their shitmessiah.
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2020, 10:51:40 pm
Now that the infection numbers seem to be trending down I'm becoming anxious about the upcoming economic crisis too...What downward trend are you talking about, dude?
This morning in the states we were looking at a confirmed death toll of 3200, right now it's 3800 and about to hit 190k confirmed cases in the US.
Aren't you in China? You know better than anyone that the remarkable flatline of cases/deaths reported there requires whole truckloads of salt before being taken.
Until yesterday it did look like the number of new cases per day in the USA was capping out, but then it jumped up suddenly from 20K new cases to 24K new cases.
My view on that is that the growth of new cases in New York is capping out, but is now kicking up in different states. The American figures have seen that happen a couple of times now - new cases seeming about to cap out or declining but then a new spurt of growth. This is obviously when a previous hotspot gets locked down, but then another state develops a problem.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 31, 2020, 10:57:03 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on March 31, 2020, 11:01:38 pm
Post by: thompson on March 31, 2020, 11:10:21 pm
Now that the infection numbers seem to be trending down I'm becoming anxious about the upcoming economic crisis too...What downward trend are you talking about, dude?
This morning in the states we were looking at a confirmed death toll of 3200, right now it's 3800 and about to hit 190k confirmed cases in the US.
Aren't you in China? You know better than anyone that the remarkable flatline of cases/deaths reported there requires whole truckloads of salt before being taken.
Until yesterday it did look like the number of new cases per day in the USA was capping out, but then it jumped up suddenly from 20K new cases to 24K new cases.
My view on that is that the growth of new cases in New York is capping out, but is now kicking up in different states. The American figures have seen that happen a couple of times now - new cases seeming about to cap out or declining but then a new spurt of growth. This is obviously when a previous hotspot gets locked down, but then another state develops a problem.
That’s why you need to look at it at a state level, but I’m sure you already knew that. Honestly, I’m expecting 1m+ Americans to die from this. It’s not an outcome I want to see, but I can’t see any sign that sufficient measures will be taken in time, or that the US will be able to deal with a second wave in a coordinated fashion. In Australia the government are flat-out telling people to expect this to drag on for 6+ months. And, as much as I hate the though of it, I can’t see this ending without either a vaccine or everyone catching it.
Post by: helmacon on April 01, 2020, 12:13:00 am
Assume the worst. Stay home folks. Buy some pasta if you can.
Post by: Xvareon on April 01, 2020, 01:14:17 am
Post by: Frumple on April 01, 2020, 01:52:29 am
I wonder if we'll hit a million recorded cases in the US alone.Only if we don't stop testing. A million recorded cases would be all of less than a third of a percent of our population -- it's around 0.3 percent -- when we're getting regular projections that over 30-40 percent of the country will eventually get infected. Unless we just stop fucking testing entirely, no shit we're going to have a million recorded cases in the US alone. If we keep on top of testing we're probably going to have well over ten fucking times a million recorded cases. Shit, we're probably going to have over a million recorded cases in individual states.
We're going to be fucking lucky at this point if we don't have a million goddamn deaths. Likely is looking more like 500-600k dead, and it gets worse from there. Minimum 'holy-shit-god-actually-is-on-our-side' levels is still six digit body count, with everything that means with the rate of infection and hospitalization :-\
Post by: scriver on April 01, 2020, 02:36:39 am
And yet, for you it is Tuesday
Post by: wierd on April 01, 2020, 02:37:38 am
I hope I am wrong-- truly- But that's what my gut is telling me.
**Remember, the following is/was the status quo in the USA in "The good times."
1) Too many patients per doctor, to the point where doctors did not get much sleep, because of the antics of the AMA to artificially restrict supply of practitioners to keep wages high.
2) Unchecked pricing in medical industry on equipment and products, because "Muh FREE MARKETZ!!"
3) Unchecked pricing on medicine in general, allowing 4000% price increases overnight, because "Muh FREE MARKETZ!!"
4) Rampant inability for people to obtain basic healthcare IN GENERAL because of rampant income inequality
and then you throw ON TOP of that--
Insufficient beds,
insufficient staff,
insufficient PPE,
insufficient equipment for ICUs,
insufficient testing,
insufficient quarantine enforcement,
insufficient supplies of medicine.....
THEN you have
Insufficient affirmative and proactive action from state and federal governments to contain the outbreak
Insufficient comprehension from the public at large to STAY THE FUCK HOME, EVEN IF YOU FEEL FINE.
Insufficient food reserves and delivery to support large urban centers in the middle of the emergency
PEOPLE BUYING AND USING FUCKING GUNS during the emergency
Etc...
Seriously- this is just "Perfect storm" writ large.
Post by: coalboat on April 01, 2020, 03:14:45 am
Post by: wierd on April 01, 2020, 03:16:06 am
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-15/coronavirus-pandemic-gun-sales-surge-us-california
Post by: delphonso on April 01, 2020, 04:34:03 am
Cousin has a fever and labored breathing - since he's young he won't get tested. Basically advised to relax and wait for it to all blow over.
Post by: martinuzz on April 01, 2020, 05:31:39 am
Face masks are lightly washed with soap and re-used.
Private hospitals in Manhattan yet have enough protective clothes though.
All hail the difference between the rich and the poor!
EDIT: In India, the corona virus isn't the only problem anymore. Famine is striking the poor. Millions of day laborers haven't had food for two weeks because they no longer get their daily income.
Post by: Kagus on April 01, 2020, 06:46:26 am
More than 5000, and Guam is nowhere near fit to handle suddenly having a new sick population like that.Yeah, they might end up tipping over again with all that weight in one area...
Post by: martinuzz on April 01, 2020, 07:05:59 am
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.
Post by: mko on April 01, 2020, 07:14:27 am
Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.I am not sure whatever it is an unfunny joke or a serious reply. But I can assure you that it will not happen.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.
EDIT: Engrish reduced, thanks.
Post by: Frumple on April 01, 2020, 07:27:10 am
Assure is the word you're looking for, there, heh. Unless you're the relevant admiral or somethin', I guess.Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.I am not sure whatever it is an unfunny joke or a serious reply. But I can ensure you that it will not happen.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.
Also, this is like the one administration I've seen in our history I'm not sure I'd actually be 100% comfortable agreeing with that statement. It's stupid enough I could see the shitgibbon in chief ordering it, probably so some company or another can salvage the remains of the ship :-\
Post by: McTraveller on April 01, 2020, 07:49:19 am
Given the lacklustre responses in most states, who have been far more concerned with economics than with human life, I am gonna throw a completely unscientific, "Gut feeling" estimate at between 1 and 1.5 million deaths in the US.
Over what timeframe? Forgive the morbidity, but the numbers:
Even at 10k deaths/day, every day, that would take 100 days straight. At "current levels of social distancing" there was some quote that peak US deaths/day will be like 2500 (we're not quite to 1000/day yet). 2500 deaths/day would take 400 days straight of that death toll to reach 1M - over a year. I can see a daily total of 10k, but not sustained for 100 days straight. If it goes on that long, I suspect we'll have civil collapse well before that 3 months is up - and that's even more frightening than getting sick.
Post by: wierd on April 01, 2020, 11:09:35 am
Increased violent crime
Preventable deaths from other illness or injury
deaths from police actions (if hard lockdowns are needed)
etc.
Not just Covid-19 associated respiratory disorder deaths.
Post by: scriver on April 01, 2020, 11:30:13 am
Assure is the word you're looking for, there, heh. Unless you're the relevant admiral or somethin', I guess.Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.I am not sure whatever it is an unfunny joke or a serious reply. But I can ensure you that it will not happen.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.
...Maybe he is a Macguyver for hire, offering his services?
Post by: McTraveller on April 01, 2020, 11:36:02 am
I was including ancillary deaths caused by associated conditions:Ah ok - although even that is pretty extreme. Average annual deaths in the US is about 2.8M a year (average almost 7700 a day) - increasing that by 50% would indeed be pretty cataclysmic. I suppose that lines up with the "civil collapse" situation.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 01, 2020, 11:43:53 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 01, 2020, 12:15:53 pm
The US has like 35% of its population over 50 years old, which are all more than 1% CFR, which heavily skews the numbers. Heck I didn't realize it but 22% of our population is 60 or older... a whole 5M of those 6M are from the 60-and-older cohort.
I feel like some statistics somewhere are very off, one way or the other.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 01, 2020, 12:33:07 pm
I mean, if CFR stays at 1% and the whole population gets infected, that's 3.2 million dead...First of all, that's CFR you're talking about. It's skewed towards serious cases. If you wanted to talk about fatality ratio in all infected people, and not just in those who have been tested positive, then the ratio to look at is IFR. That's going to be a good few times lower than CFR.
Second, as herd immunity kicks in, the spread is halted, so 100% infected population is implausible. In various places one can see predictions of 30-60% population getting the virus, barring vaccination (still way off) or containment (we're past that point now, but social distancing helps drive the R0 down).
Post by: Iduno on April 01, 2020, 12:58:10 pm
Well, Elon Musk at least is distributing 1200+ ventilors, with Tesla possibly starting to produce them too partnering with Medtronic. (not sure about the price of the produced ones, if they manage to)
As it turns out, Elon Musk doesn't know what a ventilator is, and donated CPAP machines for people with sleep apnea.
Post by: dragdeler on April 01, 2020, 01:26:39 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 01, 2020, 01:26:45 pm
I think they're BiPAPs. Which can double as noninvasive mechanical ventilators. Many companies are doing this. I think Dyson's ventilators are the same.Well, Elon Musk at least is distributing 1200+ ventilors, with Tesla possibly starting to produce them too partnering with Medtronic. (not sure about the price of the produced ones, if they manage to)
As it turns out, Elon Musk doesn't know what a ventilator is, and donated CPAP machines for people with sleep apnea.
Its better than nothing and, unlike ventilators proper, its easier and faster to train nonICU personnel in their use. Probably wont cut it for many of the more severe cases though
So, not great but it's better than nothing..
Post by: McTraveller on April 01, 2020, 01:33:47 pm
Wouldn't this be way less invasive than ventilators?
I mean, if we're looking for every little bit of help we can...
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 01, 2020, 01:36:34 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 01, 2020, 02:17:27 pm
Quarantine on a ship at sea is impossible, flat out. If the indulgent cabins of the cruise liners couldn't do it, then sailors stacked like firewood are getting infected for sure.
You can't keep them away from each other, but you can keep them away from the general populace. As long as the plague ship doesn't dock, it shouldn't be a problem.
Again: I obviously didn't mean the US
Civilized countries only. We see how you are. Reasonable. Reasonable is how you are.
I wonder if we'll hit a million recorded cases in the US alone.
No, that requires testing, and acknowledging the problem. They've started limited testing after making sure it was too late to do anything (and after they got their money out of the stock market), but they've shown enough unwillingness to care about the lives and health of citizens that I'd expect them to lie about their numbers just to look good.
Dumb/naive question - why can't we repurpose hyperbaric chambers? If the people's diaphragms are still working, wouldn't this help just by increasing the O2 pressure to get more into their blood?
If (part of) the issue is fluid in the lungs, changing the pressure would just allow more fluid in. I'm not 100% how they work, so it could be worth looking into, but that's a problem they may wish to consider.
Also, they're pretty big, and probably not plentiful.
Post by: martinuzz on April 01, 2020, 02:41:29 pm
People who purposedly cough or spit police in the face, or threaten to do so while claiming they have corona.
Special quick sentencing is used for those people. Sadly they tend to only get a few weeks in prison, or a fine.
Meanwhile, some police officers have developed PTSD from being spat in the face and worrying they were infected.
What is wrong with some people?
Post by: Iduno on April 01, 2020, 02:53:13 pm
While our courts have closed down for nearly all criminal cases for as long as the corona crisis is ongoing, one type of offender keeps them busy every day:
People who purposedly cough or spit police in the face, or threaten to do so while claiming they have corona.
Special quick sentencing is used for those people. Sadly they tend to only get a few weeks in prison, or a fine.
Meanwhile, some police officers have developed PTSD from being spat in the face and worrying they were infected.
What is wrong with some people?
Probably upset that the law applies differently to the police (as in your example). I've known people who were raped, robbed, murdered, and many who were beaten all by the police, and they have no recourse because the police are special.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 01, 2020, 02:57:10 pm
More likely they are marginal elements who are doing what marginal elements do. Lumpen acts as lumpen does.While our courts have closed down for nearly all criminal cases for as long as the corona crisis is ongoing, one type of offender keeps them busy every day:
People who purposedly cough or spit police in the face, or threaten to do so while claiming they have corona.
Special quick sentencing is used for those people. Sadly they tend to only get a few weeks in prison, or a fine.
Meanwhile, some police officers have developed PTSD from being spat in the face and worrying they were infected.
What is wrong with some people?
Probably upset that the law applies differently to the police (as in your example). I've known people who were raped, robbed, murdered, and many who were beaten all by the police, and they have no recourse because the police are special.
In my home city some people were robbing shops by threatening cashiers to cough on them. Also spat on cops. 🤷🏻♂️
Post by: Iduno on April 01, 2020, 03:02:37 pm
EDIT: In India, the corona virus isn't the only problem anymore. Famine is striking the poor. Millions of day laborers haven't had food for two weeks because they no longer get their daily income.
They sound as bad as the US, which has also been starving the poor because they haven't been paid in over a month.
Post by: martinuzz on April 01, 2020, 03:08:01 pm
Probably upset that the law applies differently to the police (as in your example). I've known people who were raped, robbed, murdered, and many who were beaten all by the police, and they have no recourse because the police are special.I am sorry to hear that you live in such a depraved corrupt country where police get away with that.
Dutch police are nowhere near like that, and they have no special status other than having to be able to do their job safely.
Post by: sluissa on April 01, 2020, 08:09:56 pm
https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html (https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 01, 2020, 08:36:49 pm
Originally from Bloomberg, who doesn't have the best record with anonymous tips or whistleblowers, so take it as it is, but not surprising at all and very much in line with what people were expecting to be going on. (Although there's an argument that makes it even more suspect, but hey, it's news.)I don't think it's necessarily concealment. Or rather, I think that while there might be an element of concealment, that's not the full story with COVID19 numbers. In general between the lack of tests, asymptomatic carriers, unrelated deaths due to healthcare overload, and goverments being less than 100% clear about their criteria for testing the living and counting the dead at any given minute, I think you have to take everyone's numbers with prudence.
https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html (https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html)
There was an article about this in a national newspaper. This is the English version of the article:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-30/tracking-the-coronavirus-why-does-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html
The title in Spanish was blunter: "Every country is counting the dead as it sees fit, and noone is doing it particularily well".
Post by: TamerVirus on April 01, 2020, 08:39:50 pm
What the actual fuck? (https://abc7.com/usns-mercy-coronavirus-train-crash-derailment/6069395/)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 01, 2020, 08:48:08 pm
Quote
Federal prosecutors allege train engineer Eduardo Moreno, 44, of San Pedro intended to hit the ship, saying he thought it was "suspicious" and did not believe "the ship is what they say it's for.'I think we all are under waaaaay too much stress and its beggining to show
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 01, 2020, 08:51:24 pm
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2020, 10:46:29 pm
Post by: nenjin on April 01, 2020, 11:10:12 pm
A count of train wrecking, I'd like to see the expression on the judge who ends up reading that one on their docket. I get the feeling this guy is a Qanon freak, with the maximum vague conspiracy plus wild impulsive crime.
When I read this whole thing and saw the picture, bizarrely the first thing that jumped in to my head was a Vampire the Masquerade conspiracy.
And yeah, Train Wrecking. My first reflex was "That's bullshit, the reporter literally didn't know what to say they're being charged with." But then I thought about it and it kinda makes sense. I'm sure they needed a special law just for that when railways became a big part of American life. TBH, just one charge sounds light. No attempted murder? Reckless endangerment? Just....Train Wrecking?
Post by: sluissa on April 01, 2020, 11:19:49 pm
A count of train wrecking, I'd like to see the expression on the judge who ends up reading that one on their docket. I get the feeling this guy is a Qanon freak, with the maximum vague conspiracy plus wild impulsive crime.
When I read this whole thing and saw the picture, bizarrely the first thing that jumped in to my head was a Vampire the Masquerade conspiracy.
And yeah, Train Wrecking. My first reflex was "That's bullshit, the reporter literally didn't know what to say they're being charged with." But then I thought about it and it kinda makes sense. I'm sure they needed a special law just for that when railways became a big part of American life. TBH, just one charge sounds light. No attempted murder? Reckless endangerment? Just....Train Wrecking?
Apparently that was an old revision.
Current law is here: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=false&edition=prelim&req=granuleid%3AUSC-2000-title18-section1992&num=0 (https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?hl=false&edition=prelim&req=granuleid%3AUSC-2000-title18-section1992&num=0)
20 years, unless a death was involved, in which case no maximum, and possibility of death penalty. Maximum is also removed if there is clear intent to harm. But yeah, either way, pretty severe charge.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 01, 2020, 11:23:48 pm
Post by: wierd on April 01, 2020, 11:24:53 pm
https://definitions.uslegal.com/d/depraved-indifference/
Post by: Kagus on April 02, 2020, 07:01:06 am
A helpful person chimed in and said that "No, the virus is fat-based, so antibac doesn't kill it. You need to actually use soap and water to take care of covid19"
This helpful person (supposedly) works as a pharmacy technician...
Post by: martinuzz on April 02, 2020, 07:51:11 am
They will have to convene to vote on a temporary change to the Constitution that will allow them to vote on laws over the internet.
Our Constitution states that no new laws can be passed by the senate or parliament unless 75% of it's members are physically present in the House.
Post by: Frumple on April 02, 2020, 08:01:27 am
Like, I get respect for a constitution and rule of law and whatnot, but sometimes you should probably just go, "Yeah, maybe we don't actually need to spread the crow plague to agree to procedure to avoid spreading the crow plague." Just throwing that one out there. Anyone with sense will understand. Anyone without can be conscripted to give aid to quarantined citizens or somethin'. Pretty sure folks could figure something reasonable out.
Post by: Iduno on April 02, 2020, 08:39:14 am
There's going to be a morbid humor if that manages to get them infected.
At least you have leaches.
Post by: martinuzz on April 02, 2020, 08:52:30 am
There's going to be a morbid humor if that manages to get them infected. Bureaucracy literally killing the bureaucrats :-\It's a valid concern, for while the average age in parliament is well below the high risk group, average age in Senate isn't
Like, I get respect for a constitution and rule of law and whatnot, but sometimes you should probably just go, "Yeah, maybe we don't actually need to spread the crow plague to agree to procedure to avoid spreading the crow plague." Just throwing that one out there. Anyone with sense will understand. Anyone without can be conscripted to give aid to quarantined citizens or somethin'. Pretty sure folks could figure something reasonable out.In a world without pesky lawyers that would work. I suppose our government is just trying to make sure that there will not be millions of lawsuits against laws that were passed unconstitutionally because the parliament's and senate's vote were invalid.
Post by: mko on April 02, 2020, 09:11:33 am
I would prefer following law, while reducing risk. For example, can they meet on say a soccer field what would allow them to maintain a decent distance? I prefer that to "we ignored laws because reasons".Like, I get respect for a constitution and rule of law and whatnot, but sometimes you should probably just go, "Yeah, maybe we don't actually need to spread the crow plague to agree to procedure to avoid spreading the crow plague." Just throwing that one out there. Anyone with sense will understand. Anyone without can be conscripted to give aid to quarantined citizens or somethin'. Pretty sure folks could figure something reasonable out.In a world without pesky lawyers that would work. I suppose our government is just trying to make sure that there will not be millions of lawsuits against laws that were passed unconstitutionally because the parliament's and senate's vote were invalid.
Post by: McTraveller on April 02, 2020, 09:21:40 am
We had 6 million new filing in one week - this is 10 times the peak rate in the 2008-2009 recession.
Yeah I know "don't just focus on the economy" but holy crap.
Post by: Iduno on April 02, 2020, 11:54:44 am
I would prefer following law, while reducing risk. For example, can they meet on say a soccer field what would allow them to maintain a decent distance? I prefer that to "we ignored laws because reasons".Like, I get respect for a constitution and rule of law and whatnot, but sometimes you should probably just go, "Yeah, maybe we don't actually need to spread the crow plague to agree to procedure to avoid spreading the crow plague." Just throwing that one out there. Anyone with sense will understand. Anyone without can be conscripted to give aid to quarantined citizens or somethin'. Pretty sure folks could figure something reasonable out.In a world without pesky lawyers that would work. I suppose our government is just trying to make sure that there will not be millions of lawsuits against laws that were passed unconstitutionally because the parliament's and senate's vote were invalid.
Good idea, but the laws usually specify where and when they're allowed to meet.
Post by: wierd on April 02, 2020, 12:01:20 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 02, 2020, 12:10:14 pm
telepresence robots yo.Too risky, they might get infected with a Chinese or Russian virus
Post by: Dostoevsky on April 02, 2020, 04:14:25 pm
There are a few ways to navigate that in a way that minimizes congregating, but those in turn require the members of congress to be amenable.
(Back during the 1918 flu the House faced the same problem; they literally didn't have enough non-sick people to get a quorum. So after much haranguing and arguing they finally got a unanimous consent agreement through.)
Edit: On the unemployment figures, this is looking like it'll become an interesting dilemma (or perhaps Rorschach test). In theory the millions of people can get unemployment benefits from the government to blunt the effects, but there's no way in expletive that the current bureaucracy can handle this size of surge.
In that case is the problem in a too-'lean' government that should have been better ready to handle problems? Or is the problem that the government can't handle this, and that there should be less restrictions / other ways? Nonprofits and charities that traditionally help (e.g. food banks) are also getting overwhelmed, though, and in some cases are already relying on National Guard troops and supplies.
(And yes, I have my own opinions on the matter - that governments and companies alike have been running too lean for a while now - but recognize that these things are neither binary nor easy questions.)
Post by: Iduno on April 02, 2020, 05:03:24 pm
Post by: McTraveller on April 02, 2020, 05:21:00 pm
I really don't understand this obsession with "I might be sick but I can't get tested" thing from a practical standpoint. Of course, I'm in a state with a "shelter in place" order so maybe my locale is different.
Post by: TD1 on April 02, 2020, 05:42:59 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 02, 2020, 05:47:34 pm
And yes, overall personal risk is low.... odds are that you'll be OK. But you dont know that you'll be. Do you really want to risk being the one who ends up with a plastic tube down the throat?
Post by: TamerVirus on April 02, 2020, 06:05:32 pm
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50
Post by: thompson on April 02, 2020, 06:34:47 pm
Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50
Not too surprising, I suppose. Presumably these numbers are sensitive to the timeliness of intervention, with less overwhelmed health systems being more responsive and having higher recovery rates?
Post by: Iduno on April 02, 2020, 06:38:28 pm
Out of curiosity - why does it matter if he is tested or not? Shouldn't he just be staying home anyway?
I really don't understand this obsession with "I might be sick but I can't get tested" thing from a practical standpoint. Of course, I'm in a state with a "shelter in place" order so maybe my locale is different.
I guess it's more that he can't even get tested. Treatment would be way beyond what he could afford.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 02, 2020, 07:59:46 pm
Post by: Folly on April 02, 2020, 08:32:58 pm
Post by: thompson on April 02, 2020, 11:04:09 pm
To be fair, Trump has been preaching that exact message pretty much every day since this thing started. It should come as no surprise that a few governors actually believed him.
Nah, if he’s taking his medical advice from Trump he’s still an idiot. If anything, Trump might be able to get by on the defence that he legitimately doesn’t give a shit and only ran for presidency to appease his ego. If you regard moral bankruptcy as a lesser charge than stupidity, that is.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 02, 2020, 11:47:17 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 02, 2020, 11:50:49 pm
Post by: Reelya on April 03, 2020, 12:01:44 am
Post by: ZBridges on April 03, 2020, 12:03:28 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 03, 2020, 12:04:42 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 01:04:09 am
I've heard of people doing that, spitting to try to spread the virus. What's the cause of strange compulsions like that?People are dicks. We had some lowlifes dling covid19 robberies in my home city.
As in they were + and stole stuff from shops threatening to spit on cashiers
Post by: Quarque on April 03, 2020, 02:08:22 am
Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50
Not too surprising, I suppose. Presumably these numbers are sensitive to the timeliness of intervention, with less overwhelmed health systems being more responsive and having higher recovery rates?
It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?
Post by: mko on April 03, 2020, 02:10:42 am
Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...Yes, ventilators are not some miracle cure. But increasing chances from basically 0 to 20% is still clearly valuable. Modern medicine is amazing but number of 100% effective miracle treatments is lower than people expect.
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50
If you are in "certain death or treatment" situation, you are still likely to die even with treatment.
Post by: Bralbaard on April 03, 2020, 02:16:40 am
Now there were only 233 reported covid fatalities in that week, so it is possible that deads from covid are significantly underreported, as only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.
Just remember when picking on the Chinese numbers and statistics, that other countries are having their own issues.
Post by: Quarque on April 03, 2020, 02:33:51 am
only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.
Is that true? Damn, that means that even the death count is a bogus number. In the Netherlands we are barely testing anyone!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 02:43:56 am
The Dutch statistics institute just released numbers saying that in the week from 16 to 22 march, 500 more people died in the Netherlands than would be expected for that week in a normal year.
Now there were only 233 reported covid fatalities in that week, so it is possible that deads from covid are significantly underreported, as only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.
Just remember when picking on the Chinese numbers and statistics, that other countries are having their own issues.
I said as much here
Originally from Bloomberg, who doesn't have the best record with anonymous tips or whistleblowers, so take it as it is, but not surprising at all and very much in line with what people were expecting to be going on. (Although there's an argument that makes it even more suspect, but hey, it's news.)I don't think it's necessarily concealment. Or rather, I think that while there might be an element of concealment, that's not the full story with COVID19 numbers. In general between the lack of tests, asymptomatic carriers, unrelated deaths due to healthcare overload, and goverments being less than 100% clear about their criteria for testing the living and counting the dead at any given minute, I think you have to take everyone's numbers with prudence.
https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html (https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html)
There was an article about this in a national newspaper. This is the English version of the article:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-30/tracking-the-coronavirus-why-does-each-country-count-deaths-differently.html
The title in Spanish was blunter: "Every country is counting the dead as it sees fit, and noone is doing it particularily well".
Post by: Bralbaard on April 03, 2020, 02:46:59 am
only fatalities from confirmed cases are counted.
Is that true? Damn, that means that even the death count is a bogus number. In the Netherlands we are barely testing anyone!
yes
https://www.nporadio1.nl/gezondheid/22635-huisartsen-niet-alle-corona-doden-worden-geregistreerd (https://www.nporadio1.nl/gezondheid/22635-huisartsen-niet-alle-corona-doden-worden-geregistreerd) (in Dutch)
At least we know, and with numbers like the ones just released by the statistics institute we can get a reasonable grasp of the real numbers.
It's just important to realize that getting the numbers right is hard.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 03, 2020, 03:08:41 am
Post by: ZBridges on April 03, 2020, 03:15:51 am
Post by: Bralbaard on April 03, 2020, 03:24:47 am
Do "confirmed cases" include cases confirmed post mortem?
In the (dutch) article I linked it is stated that people are not being tested post mortem, and that that is a likely cause for significant underreporting.
Post by: Frumple on April 03, 2020, 04:24:41 am
It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?It's not just that -- in a lot of places we're still basically not fucking testing, so you functionally can't "request treatment" until it's too late. Given how rapidly the crow plague can turn severe or fatal, if you're infected but the docs aren't aware (because we're not fucking testing) and/or you're not near a hospital (with the means to help you), you can end up just bloody dying because no one is taking proper precautions or fucking knows they need to, to keep your ass from dying.
The costs involved are definitely driving people stateside to not seek even basic aid, though, yes. On top of everything else. Part of the "fun" shit is that covid shares symptoms with a lot of shit, so one thing I've seen folks concerned about is even if aid is available for covid testing or care (and if anywhere is actually fucking doing that for the uninsured in the US, I haven't noticed), if they're ill and uncovered and go in to get checked on and it turns out it isn't the crow plague, now they're up shit creek of medical bills and the paddles are only being provided to other boats. So they don't go in, because a negative hurts them as much as or more than a positive.
Go figure, a fucked up healthcare system is making a fucked up situation more fucked. Who could have goddamn thought.
Post by: martinuzz on April 03, 2020, 04:30:24 am
I guess if we had enough tests we would test the dead, but we don't even have enough tests to test anyone except those that are so ill they need hospitalization.Do "confirmed cases" include cases confirmed post mortem?
In the (dutch) article I linked it is stated that people are not being tested post mortem, and that that is a likely cause for significant underreporting.
Nearest producer of tests (our neighbor Germany) for now is keeping their tests for domestic use.
EDIT: Meanwhile, the commander of the Theodore Roosevelt has been relieved of his command. According to minister of the Navy Thomas Modley, the captain has shown poor judgement, by mailing his distress call to 20 to 30 of his colleagues, after which it leaked to the media.
Post by: Starver on April 03, 2020, 04:37:28 am
Obviously someone with seemingly enough malevolent determination to spend their last hours 'spreading the love' as far and wide as they can is a priority post-mortem testee compared to other more 'considerate' end-of-life transitions into the Rs. Perhaps they can bottle up samples from all morbidities (home as well as hospital) to systematically revisit later when 'live testing' isn't so urgent, but the various logistics on that aren't easy to imagine.
Or so I surnise, from my own armchair. I'd defer to someone who has practical involvement in these decision processes and/or practicalities behind them. And different nations/areas may have their own subtle twists on this whole mix.
Spoiler: Personal musings on my place in that (click to show/hide)
(Slightly ninjaed by the last two posts.)
Post by: martinuzz on April 03, 2020, 04:53:34 am
The lockdown in these countries has made production drop a lot in facilities that make basic medicine like penicilline, antibiotics, paracetamol and ibuprofen.
For now there is still some reserve in Chinese warehouses but it is expected that somewhere in or after summer, shortages will start showing and abovementioned medication can not be delivered to our countries.
India has already put in place an import ban for various medicine and their raw rescources.
The EU is looking into building an emergency facility to at least make penicilline.
I hope a solution can be found, because if there's no more antibiotics, a whole lot of people are going to die of other things than corona.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/medicijnen-dreigen-over-paar-maanden-op-te-raken-door-afhankelijkheid-china-en-india~b06a5cea/
Post by: Greiger on April 03, 2020, 05:05:22 am
Spoiler: coronavirus unemployment news (click to show/hide)
Post by: dragdeler on April 03, 2020, 05:22:39 am
Post by: wierd on April 03, 2020, 05:50:24 am
Premature... but nice news anyway.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/
Apparently also on CBS news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNX7WAtsbog
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 06:21:28 am
Potentially dodgy source, but nice news if true...
Premature... but nice news anyway.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/
Apparently also on CBS news.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNX7WAtsbog
*shrug*
There are like... 40? 50? vaccine candidates. About half of them being developed in China.
Having a candidate is not specially newsworthy. The problem is making sure it works on humans fast enough. That will take months even on a best case scenario and rushing it far faster than you normally would....
That being said: there are currently ongoing trials for BCG vaccine and coronavirus in the US, Australia, and the Netherlands. The scientific rationale is that live vaccines have been shown to temporarily enhance immunity against unrelated infections, that BCG apparently was tentatively studied in the past as being specially good at inducing this (not clear on how solid that evidence is), and countries doing TB vaccines with BCG having slower covid spread than you'd expect. To me it seems a bit of a hail mary approach but it might reduce the risk, at least for a while, for the most exposed personnel... if it works at all. We'll see
Post by: Jimmy on April 03, 2020, 07:13:23 am
One of the worst outcomes can be antibody-dependent enhancement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement), where the immune system can actually increase viral penetration of the body's cells. Different virus serotypes can turn a relatively mild infection into a life-threatening illness in those whose immune system only recognize one type. This actually caused a recall of dengue fever vaccines (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengvaxia_controversy) recently in the Philippines due to risk of serotype mismatch caused by vaccination causing greater harm than the infection itself.
Since this virus is known to be zoonotic, we can probably predict a high chance of serotype divergence in the future. If we end up with a dengue-like antibody-dependent enhancement of from a poorly developed and tested vaccine, and given that it's likely any vaccine will be almost universally distributed, we might end up causing a significant number of silent symptom cases to instead cascade into critical organ failure due to a COVID-19 divergent serotype penetrating into cells with little to no ACE-2 receptor expression, all courtesy of their own immune system.
So yeah, I'm not gonna be first in line to try a brand new vaccine with limited trial data. Gimme some solid vaccine epidemiological studies first before you jab me with whatever you cook up, thanks.
Post by: dragdeler on April 03, 2020, 07:17:09 am
Post by: TD1 on April 03, 2020, 07:27:21 am
Post by: Iduno on April 03, 2020, 07:42:17 am
Seems like most people who end up on the ventilator end up dead...
The NY gov said it’s roughly a 20% chance you live.
EU folk I think have said it’s a coin flip 50/50
Not too surprising, I suppose. Presumably these numbers are sensitive to the timeliness of intervention, with less overwhelmed health systems being more responsive and having higher recovery rates?
It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?
Yes it can. One of my coworkers is having to do that.
It depends on many factors. In the US, I wonder if the lack of health insurance could drive people to refrain from requesting treatment until it is too late?It's not just that -- in a lot of places we're still basically not fucking testing, so you functionally can't "request treatment" until it's too late. Given how rapidly the crow plague can turn severe or fatal, if you're infected but the docs aren't aware (because we're not fucking testing) and/or you're not near a hospital (with the means to help you), you can end up just bloody dying because no one is taking proper precautions or fucking knows they need to, to keep your ass from dying.
The costs involved are definitely driving people stateside to not seek even basic aid, though, yes. On top of everything else. Part of the "fun" shit is that covid shares symptoms with a lot of shit, so one thing I've seen folks concerned about is even if aid is available for covid testing or care (and if anywhere is actually fucking doing that for the uninsured in the US, I haven't noticed), if they're ill and uncovered and go in to get checked on and it turns out it isn't the crow plague, now they're up shit creek of medical bills and the paddles are only being provided to other boats. So they don't go in, because a negative hurts them as much as or more than a positive.
Go figure, a fucked up healthcare system is making a fucked up situation more fucked. Who could have goddamn thought.
And yet, in the US, both main-party candidates for president have said that better healthcare wouldn't help anything, and have pledged to prevent it.
Edit: And one of those assholes is still telling people to get out and vote in person. Fucking piece of disingenuous shit. Stay the fuck home, people. No matter what the old men tell you. You can vote online, or through the mail.
Post by: Teneb on April 03, 2020, 09:44:29 am
Post by: TamerVirus on April 03, 2020, 11:36:21 am
The working class sections of the borough of Queens remains the hardest hit.
The hardest hit area of Queens?
The neighborhood of Corona, naturally (https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/corona-nycs-epicenter-coronavirus-outbreak)
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 03, 2020, 11:42:43 am
The hardest hit area of Queens?Shiite. I'm now morbidly disappointed the outbreak didn't start there. It'd be called Corona coronavirus.
The neighborhood of Corona, naturally (https://patch.com/new-york/new-york-city/corona-nycs-epicenter-coronavirus-outbreak)
Post by: martinuzz on April 03, 2020, 01:34:51 pm
Propofol is one of a few agents used to keep patients asleep, but there is now a worldwide shortage.
Veterinary grade propofol is the same thing, with an added preservative that is also safely used in other human medications.
It is impossible for pharmacists to make propofol themselves, although they are already doing their best to produce alternative cocktails of midozalam and sufentanil, which can be produced locally at quite a few hospitals in the Netherlands, for as long as they have raw materials.
Still, with patients on average spending 3 weeks on respiration and needing to be kept asleep for that time, anaestethics are bound to run out (there is 3 week's supply left in stock).
The approval of use of veterinary grade will help last a bit longer, albeit not much. Veterinary suppliers are also facing the problem of acquiring base rescources from China and India, just like the factories producing the human variant.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 01:43:42 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 02:47:49 pm
Post by: McTraveller on April 03, 2020, 06:54:34 pm
Only factors I can think of is that Detroit is super poor and that Detroit Metro was an allowed entry point for international travel. Although when compared to CA I don't think that makes a difference, since I'm sure one of the major CA airports had to be an allowed entry point as well.
I think it could also be that people are dumb - in my relatively low-density town, I'm astonished at how many people are still driving by my house, and the one day a week we go grocery shopping there's still notable traffic.
Post by: ZBridges on April 03, 2020, 07:00:16 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on April 03, 2020, 07:54:39 pm
It's just weird because the demand must be so much higher. What is happening in those highly-secret server farms? What *was* happening before this?
Ah sorry, that sounds like conspiracy crap. I'm just drinking and perusing what saved media I actually have. The nostalgia always hits me real hard with this stuff, which is why I tend to avoid it. Treasure it though.
Post by: Frumple on April 03, 2020, 08:05:35 pm
Beyond all that, there's a stay-home lean towards old people, too, so. Unless you've seen actual data that demand for that stuff has significantly spiked, to the point it could reasonably cause service interruption, I'd assume it just... hasn't.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 03, 2020, 08:23:42 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 03, 2020, 08:42:25 pm
Also lol, MSH, I've been putting in more hours a week because I don't have to commute. :3
Post by: misko27 on April 03, 2020, 09:02:10 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on April 03, 2020, 09:09:56 pm
And from you, now.
Like, he got me onto Skype, why is he getting me on Zoom now??
actually I'm fine with this as long as he ignores discord. Which he's on, for Pokemon-
It's nice seeing people we care about. Even just pictures. Showing off our "masks" of mattress cover (him) or just a double layer of black scarf over mouth and noise (me).
Quote from: Dad
Yes, you look like you are ready to rob a convenience store.
They're wearing masks too and recognize me, I'm sure they understand :P
Post by: Frumple on April 03, 2020, 09:18:57 pm
Just a few bit ago I managed to convince the actual tech people to install notepad++ on a bunch of stuff. They were impressed by the auto-backup and lack of invisible formatting you run into working with Word.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 09:19:58 pm
They are kind of serious about it too as they got a national car factory (SEAT) to start churning 300 a day. Supposedly has more flexibility for long term use than the leitat too as it allows to regulate more parameters but since I'm not an ICU guy I couldn't really say...
Post by: wierd on April 03, 2020, 10:58:43 pm
However, on my end, it seems our BVM is MIA. A shame, I would have loved to manufacture the emergency vent as a precaution, but nope. Missing vital component, and now BVMs are also in short supply.
I am glad the emergency stopgap kluge is getting investigatory approval though; Hope it saves lives.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 11:10:43 pm
The way things are going international markets are not reliable anymore. Countries are outright stealing each other's orders.
Post by: Frumple on April 03, 2020, 11:19:40 pm
Post by: wierd on April 03, 2020, 11:21:52 pm
In the 40s and 50s, during the polio epidemic, many iron lung style vents were manufactured, and because of how big and scary they were, they became museum pieces.
I wonder if they could be grabbed from said museums and put into service. That 40s tech was some mil-spec shit.
@frumple
The conversion of BVMs into emergency vents thing-- or the stealing of orders thing?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 11:23:05 pm
Has anyone other than the US actually done that yet? Only news I've seen on that was the states doing it, so far.Turkey seized 150 Spanish ventilators which were enroute from China
A thought keeps coming back to me that I can't shake.We'd need an ICU guy to give you the details but I think iron lungs wouldn't cut it... polio caused paralysis, not really lung disease. I'm not sure just making chests inhale would be any good with SARS, given that the underlying condition is a primary lung disorder
In the 40s and 50s, during the polio epidemic, many iron lung style vents were manufactured, and because of how big and scary they were, they became museum pieces.
I wonder if they could be grabbed from said museums and put into service. That 40s tech was some mil-spec shit.
@frumple
The conversion of BVMs into emergency vents thing-- or the stealing of orders thing?
Post by: wierd on April 03, 2020, 11:27:34 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 03, 2020, 11:27:57 pm
Post by: wierd on April 03, 2020, 11:32:26 pm
the issue is that the inflammatory response in the lung tissue from the infection actively retards the efficacy of the alveolar tissue in the lungs from performing efficient gas exchange. Iron lung was designed to work with paralyzed diaphram, not deal with reduced lung function.
However, combining with a bipap and a good oxygen feed (which the bipap is designed to accept), could be useful.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 11:40:01 pm
It combined with something like a cpap or bipap and an O2 feed, it might work. The air being pulled in would be enriched, and not just room air.
maybe... TBH so many things are worth a try in these situations....
We'll see how the SEAT ventilator turns out. TBH if it gives people a fighting chance, even if slim....
Oh and I learned something new today.
Apparently private hospitals in Spain have a grand total of 2000 free ICU beds. With ventilators.
In all honesty, all this drama about Turkey is SMALL POTATOES if you have that strategic resource just there and you're not using it.
I think our goverment is trying to make the crisis budget as low as they can (eg: this, their constription of last year medical residents, their constription of last year medical students...). I'm not impressed.
Post by: Frumple on April 03, 2020, 11:51:14 pm
The conversion of BVMs into emergency vents thing-- or the stealing of orders thing?The stealing orders thing. The U.S. one was the only one I'd seen mention of so far. Turkey would make two.
And yeah, re: private stuff, I'm very much at the point for that front where you're either a part of the solution or a problem to be dealt with. Fuckers can go back to ripping people off and hoarding shit when we don't have the crow plague looking to replicate a world war death count. Either shape up and help out or get you shit seized and your owners jailed, or somethin' along those lines.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 03, 2020, 11:58:47 pm
Of course we'd have to know the details. But the way the goverment in Spain has been trying to run this... has been low budget. The pattern holds: they constripted last year med students cause they are free. They forced residents who were finishing in May to stay as residents longer to avoid paying them as consultants.
I can see them refusing the offer of 2000 ICU beds because when the crisis passes they'd get a bill (ICU beds dont run themselves). So they are trying to cut as many corners as they can.
Mind you. I'm not a defender of private heslthcare. But bemoaning lossing 150 respirators to the turks while leaving 2000 private ones unused... I dont get it.
I'd understand it better if they tried to seize them without paying and deal with the dallout later
(Of course the reason they dont do that is because of the elephant in the room in this international respirator crisis... THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY ICU SPECIALISTS EITHER - and they'd need to hire the private ones. Thats why Dyson and Tesla are making BiPAPs. Gicing a quick NIMV course to other specialities is probably viable. Getting other specialities to manage regular ventilators, not so much)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 04, 2020, 12:04:25 am
Post by: Starver on April 04, 2020, 12:15:16 am
(I'm sure drilling into this could expose typical PPP behaviour of short-term savings for the public purse get offset by being tied into longer term corporate profiteering, or it could just be "nobody wants our elective procedures at the moment, let's offset null income with some income that has some subtle PR on top". Depends on cynicism levels. It was just a brief sentence, though, so I may have the wrong end of the wrong stick. Still, relevent to favourably compare to the alleged Spanish situation - whether it was an offer made at too high a cost tied to it or there were more unreasonable failings in the governnental declining to take it up. Even with the caveats I'm suggesting.)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 04, 2020, 12:39:12 am
There are more benign explanations though. Those 2000 ventilators... it's all over the country. And the only areas threatening an ICU collapse are Madrid and Barcelona. In the rest of the country the pressure is easing up slowly. They might intend to use other region's ICU capacity rather than the private sector's.
This is not really off-mark. Despite successive funding cuts the Spanish healthcare system is fairly well equipped, and ICU wise I think it was the third or fourth with the highest ration per capita. It could be that by shuffling people around (which they might have to do anyway if they took the private sector's offer) they can rely purely on public resources.
Post by: Jimmy on April 04, 2020, 12:40:26 am
So far, we've got 28 dead from COVID-19. That's about the average number of people who die each year from kangaroos, crocodiles and other assorted Australian wildlife. We haven't seen the end of this though, not by a long shot.
Our town's still going well. Haven't had a day off work for the last week, and looking like it'll stay that way for as long as we can still keep getting stock into our pharmacy. We're getting into the swing of things, and looking at putting on a few more staff to cover the busiest times, which is great since we're facing a streak of unemployment nationally.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 04, 2020, 12:44:57 am
So far, we've got 28 dead from COVID-19. That's about the average number of people who die each year from kangaroos, crocodiles and other assorted Australian wildlife. We haven't seen the end of this though, not by a long shot.That you know of. As it has been stated elsewhere: everyone is counting the dead in a different way, and noone is doing it particularily well.
On the plus side in theory humidity and heat help push the virus back. And I assume Australian coastal cities are plentiful on both of those?
I know that the Canary Islands outbreaks were surprisingly self-limited, despite the disease getting there first. Tenerife is the only island with a significant number (and Tenerife has the particularity that some of the cities up in the mountain are surprisingly cold for an otherwise subtropical island... and indeed those are the worst hit places.)
Post by: Starver on April 04, 2020, 01:49:55 am
That's why over the last twenty years less than a handful of health ministers have been medical professionals. The current one is a philosopher.UK's Sec of State for Health, Matt Hancock[1] isn't particularly medical. Straight from the currently fashionable PPE road towards politics, seemingly with the emphasis (and most recent advisor experience) on the Economics element. Opinion varies whether that's more or less practical in this (or any other) cass than the Philisophy section - no comment at all will be made on the Politics one! (His predecessor, Jeremy Hunt, was/is an acknowledged car-crash across the board and in other departments too, with similar PPE origins. Prior to hm, Andrew Lansley had Shadowed in Health before, at least, and had a pathologist father.)
He's funny, though. Unintentionally. Most recent Coronavirus Briefing, I think, you could tell the scripted notes from the ad-libs. Strange breaks in flow like "There are two main points: One, <main point one>, and <long aside>, and <long aside>, and <long aside>...*breath*... And Two, <main point two>...” And another disconnection like "For the scientific information, we have expert <named>, here. He is a top doctor, immunologist, epidemiologist and virologist who has made many publications and will be telling you all about that at length."
Something was (unintentionally) said by someone the other day that I almost put in the Bad Jokes thread. I'm afraid that in the "Comedy equals Tragedy plus Time" equation it's severely lacking in Time, but...
Of one of the nurses who lost her life the other day, from COVID, there was a glowing memorialising from a colleague who knew her: When the situation was tough in the department, she'd always be there, and was always happy to help out preparing food in busy times and giving loads of hugs to people who felt bad.
[1] Keep wanting to call him Nick Hancock (comedian) though so far I've not confused him with Tony Hancock (comedy performer).
Post by: martinuzz on April 04, 2020, 06:23:24 am
Despite successive funding cuts the Spanish healthcare system is fairly well equipped, and ICU wise I think it was the third or fourth with the highest ration per capita. It could be that by shuffling people around (which they might have to do anyway if they took the private sector's offer) they can rely purely on public resources.Qualified people are as scarce as ICUs and respirators.
Over here, our hospitals have scaled up their corona ICU capacity from 1150 to 2400 beds (theres a few hundred more but those are reserved for non-corona acute care), which might just barely be be enough for the peak, but probably not, because patients that survive keep the ICU beds occupied for 3 weeks.
However, even if we have more beds and respirators and all the other equipment needed, we are hitting a qualified personnell wall.
Where normally, there is at least 1 on 1 care per ICU bed, it's already stretched thin to 1 on 3. Adding more ICU beds will not be possible for lack of nurses and doctors.
And with the schools and universities closed, it looks like there's not going to be many new doctors, nurses or interns this summer because lots of students will need to redo their year.
Post by: Reelya on April 04, 2020, 06:34:56 am
So far, we've got 28 dead from COVID-19. That's about the average number of people who die each year from kangaroos, crocodiles and other assorted Australian wildlife. We haven't seen the end of this though, not by a long shot.That you know of. As it has been stated elsewhere: everyone is counting the dead in a different way, and noone is doing it particularily well.
On the plus side in theory humidity and heat help push the virus back. And I assume Australian coastal cities are plentiful on both of those?
Not necessarily. The continent does span over 2000 miles north/south, and most of the population is clustered in the colder southern part. The vast majority of people don't actually choose to live in the hotter parts.
The summers are actually warmer in Boston than in Sydney apparently, for example. While Brisbane is probably the hottest major capital, but it's apparently still cooler than Miami in summers.
Post by: martinuzz on April 04, 2020, 08:53:54 am
The man has been arrested and the children have been offered victim support for having had to witness that.
Post by: Starver on April 04, 2020, 09:05:41 am
(Might be the most popular decision he's made for a while. Amongst both supporters and detractors, but for different reasons.)
Meanwhile, you know how Boris wanted to stop all early releases of prisoners, a couple of months back? Well.. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52165919)
Post by: Reelya on April 04, 2020, 09:17:56 am
Post by: TamerVirus on April 04, 2020, 09:24:00 am
Has anyone other than the US actually done that yet? Only news I've seen on that was the states doing it, so far.Germany from the Swiss (https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/schweiz/standard/deutschland-blockiert-sogar-schweizer-importe-aus-drittstaaten/story/21141347)
France from Spain and Italy (https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=83&artikel=7444848)
Turkey from Spain (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-turkey-spain-ventilators-medical-equipment-seized-a9447216.html)
Czech from Italy, through they said it was a ‘misunderstanding’ and sent an equivalent amount later
USA from a bunch of places
USA federal government from different states as equipment procurement devolved into a Hunger Games bidding war
FREE FOR ALL!
CHOOSE YOUR CHARACTER!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 04, 2020, 09:50:34 am
I wonder what will the world look like when we get out.
Ah, but the private sector has it's own share o anesthesiologist and ICU specialists (in Spain they are separate specialities.) ... but those cost money too.Despite successive funding cuts the Spanish healthcare system is fairly well equipped, and ICU wise I think it was the third or fourth with the highest ration per capita. It could be that by shuffling people around (which they might have to do anyway if they took the private sector's offer) they can rely purely on public resources.Qualified people are as scarce as ICUs and respirators.
Over here, our hospitals have scaled up their corona ICU capacity from 1150 to 2400 beds (theres a few hundred more but those are reserved for non-corona acute care), which might just barely be be enough for the peak, but probably not, because patients that survive keep the ICU beds occupied for 3 weeks.
However, even if we have more beds and respirators and all the other equipment needed, we are hitting a qualified personnell wall.
Where normally, there is at least 1 on 1 care per ICU bed, it's already stretched thin to 1 on 3. Adding more ICU beds will not be possible for lack of nurses and doctors.
And with the schools and universities closed, it looks like there's not going to be many new doctors, nurses or interns this summer because lots of students will need to redo their year.
I'm aware of the shortage (I said as much before... that's my suspicion as to why Tesla's respiators are actually BiPAPs fo NIMV), but yeah, that makes the private sector's offer so much more important because that means both respirators and specialists, not just more respirators.
I think that despite the public gloom they are not as globally short on ICU beds as the pretended, particularily if they shuffle people around from Madrid to elsewhere.
Btw schools and unis wouldnt sort out the doctor shortage because the largest lack is in particular specialities. Goverments want mostly two things now. Well three things: on one hand they want people able to intubate and operate ventilators. On the other, they want an army of as-cheap-as-you-can-get them inexperienced junior docs or even last year medical students to do odd jobs and deal with the deluge of mild cases in the ER, and a number of more experienced doctors(preferibly internal medicine, GPs, or respiratory) to oversee them and make rough plans for the non ICU patients.
The rest? They're not that necessary (for now) unless the ones they have get sick, because most of the regular activity has been cancelled.
(Yes I'm rather cynical about western goverment's crisis management how did you tell?)
Post by: TamerVirus on April 04, 2020, 09:58:21 am
Not enough testing
Not enough PPE
Not enough ICU beds
Not enough ventilators
Not enough medical staff
And now the word is that hospitals don’t have enough oxygen and are running out of paralytics and sedatives to keep the vented patients asleep.
It’s all one big shit show.
Post by: Iduno on April 04, 2020, 10:00:04 am
Something was (unintentionally) said by someone the other day that I almost put in the Bad Jokes thread. I'm afraid that in the "Comedy equals Tragedy plus Time" equation it's severely lacking in Time, but...
Of one of the nurses who lost her life the other day, from COVID, there was a glowing memorialising from a colleague who knew her: When the situation was tough in the department, she'd always be there, and was always happy to help out preparing food in busy times and giving loads of hugs to people who felt bad.
I like the (gallows) humor of that one. Subtle.
A highschool class in the Netherlands following an online class witnessed domestic violence when their teacher was physically abused by her husband in front of the camera.
The man has been arrested and the children have been offered victim support for having had to witness that.
It's terrible that it happens, but it's heartwarming that people did the right thing when it was caught.
(Yes I'm rather cynical about western government's crisis management how did you tell?)
With their record, it's not unreasonable.
Everything is scare or inadequate here stateside.
Not enough testing
Not enough PPE
Not enough ICU beds
Not enough ventilators
Not enough medical staff
And now the word is that hospitals don’t have enough oxygen and are running out of paralytics and sedatives to keep the vented patients asleep.
It’s all one big shit show.
Accountants noticed that keeping extra stuff on hand was a cost without an immediate benefit, so nobody has extra anything anymore (pretty much regardless of industry). It turns out that maybe the experts know things as well? Sadly, people trust business people more than experts.
Edit: That'll teach you to be sick in this country. (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/covid-19-hospital-bills-could-cost-uninsured-americans-up-to-75000.html) Even being hospitalized for work-related injuries a year ago (which insurance wouldn't cover because it's work related, and the employer wouldn't cover because) only cost me half of that.
Post by: Teneb on April 04, 2020, 12:25:33 pm
I hope the same.This here article is in pt-br, but the USA has jacked equipment meant for Brazil, France and Germany (https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2020/04/04/coronavirus-eua-sao-acusados-de-pirataria-e-desvio-de-equipamentos-que-iriam-para-alemanha-franca-e-brasil.ghtml).
The way things are going international markets are not reliable anymore. Countries are outright stealing each other's orders.
Post by: Iduno on April 04, 2020, 12:36:28 pm
I hope the same.This here article is in pt-br, but the USA has jacked equipment meant for Brazil, France and Germany (https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2020/04/04/coronavirus-eua-sao-acusados-de-pirataria-e-desvio-de-equipamentos-que-iriam-para-alemanha-franca-e-brasil.ghtml).
The way things are going international markets are not reliable anymore. Countries are outright stealing each other's orders.
Combined with the federal government in the US stealing shipments intended for individual states, to be kept for federal uses. And Jared Kushner has stated that states may not use anything from the federal stockpile.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 04, 2020, 03:27:47 pm
I hope the same.This here article is in pt-br, but the USA has jacked equipment meant for Brazil, France and Germany (https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2020/04/04/coronavirus-eua-sao-acusados-de-pirataria-e-desvio-de-equipamentos-que-iriam-para-alemanha-franca-e-brasil.ghtml).
The way things are going international markets are not reliable anymore. Countries are outright stealing each other's orders.
Combined with the federal government in the US stealing shipments intended for individual states, to be kept for federal uses. And Jared Kushner has stated that states may not use anything from the federal stockpile.
What's his angle for keeping those in stockpile? He the Joker or something? Wants to watch the world burn?
I mean how can you justify that?
Post by: Frumple on April 04, 2020, 03:33:44 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on April 04, 2020, 03:35:23 pm
Step 1: Acquire resources/capital
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit!
This federal hoarding is particularly "amusing" given that the official excuse for us refusing WHO tests in favor of desperately making our own was generosity. We didn't need those tests, the rest of the world needs them too much - oh but our states need to source their own masks. And give us some. For reasons.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 04, 2020, 03:36:28 pm
I mean I kind of commented on it tongue in cheek in the midly upset thread.
But... what about dwarf fortress as a model for epidemic spreading???
Toady should really look into this you know..
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 04, 2020, 03:38:54 pm
My wife's boss finally confirmed she totally had Covid, and totally refused to tell anyone and then after a few days quarantined herself at home.
As a result there are now 3 cases at my wife's work. Her duties there are 100% essential to keep those elderly folks alive even on a normal basis, so i'm feeling like it's sort of inevitable that she or me or even our little guy will come down with it eventually. She's taking extreme precautions at work and whatnot, but still.
Post by: wierd on April 04, 2020, 03:39:32 pm
The only issue is that the world simulation is too ... chunky.. to do it properly right now.
As for why the fed would want its own private stockpile of supplies---
DUH--- the powerful want to lock out the Mask of the Red Death (https://www.ibiblio.org/ebooks/Poe/Red_Death.pdf). dont you guys read classic literature?
Post by: TamerVirus on April 04, 2020, 03:40:28 pm
Hey guys I had a stupid thought.Nah.
I mean I kind of commented on it tongue in cheek in the midly upset thread.
But... what about dwarf fortress as a model for epidemic spreading???
Toady should really look into this you know..
The use World of Warcraft (https://www.pcgamer.com/the-researchers-who-once-studied-wows-corrupted-blood-plague-are-now-fighting-the-coronavirus/) instead
Post by: Rolan7 on April 04, 2020, 04:01:38 pm
Nah.Fascinating! I'm amazed that Blizzard had to resort to a reset rather than merely removing the effect from all entities. Seems like that should have been easy with an hour of offline maintenance on the databases, and very preferable. I know it was 2005 but how bad were their tools?? This lasted a week!
The use World of Warcraft (https://www.pcgamer.com/the-researchers-who-once-studied-wows-corrupted-blood-plague-are-now-fighting-the-coronavirus/) instead
Quote from: https://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18571
One trait was particularly enlightening: curiosity, something epidemiologists did not generally build into their models. Some players attempted to enter infected areas to witness the chaos, then rush out before contracting the disease themselves. This behavior has real-world parallels, particularly in the case of journalists, who must rush towards a problem to cover it, then rush back out.Eerily relateable. A week before my city officially announced the stay-at-home order, I went to the grocery store a couple of times primarily to see how people were reacting. I was getting a lot of panicky misinformation through my housemate, so it was actually reassuring to see the stocked shelves and... unfortunately large crowds. That was before we had a confirmed case though.
Post by: Trekkin on April 04, 2020, 05:00:02 pm
But... what about dwarf fortress as a model for epidemic spreading???
Toady should really look into this you know..
We already have better models for epidemics, in the sense that they include more salient features and fewer irrelevant ones (and so run much more efficiently.) What we don't have is the data required to set them up in maximally predictive ways.
Then again, there is some value in having something anyone can do to "contribute to the solution" just so they don't feel useless, and playing DF would at least keep people at home.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 04, 2020, 05:13:49 pm
This doesn't make sense, states are already receiving supplies from the federal stockpile.I hope the same.This here article is in pt-br, but the USA has jacked equipment meant for Brazil, France and Germany (https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2020/04/04/coronavirus-eua-sao-acusados-de-pirataria-e-desvio-de-equipamentos-que-iriam-para-alemanha-franca-e-brasil.ghtml).
The way things are going international markets are not reliable anymore. Countries are outright stealing each other's orders.
Combined with the federal government in the US stealing shipments intended for individual states, to be kept for federal uses. And Jared Kushner has stated that states may not use anything from the federal stockpile.
Post by: Starver on April 04, 2020, 05:55:23 pm
Fascinating! I'm amazed that Blizzard had to resort to a reset rather than merely removing the effect from all entities. Seems like that should have been easy with an hour of offline maintenance on the databases, and very preferable. I know it was 2005 but how bad were their tools??Less useful than FluffOS (a MUDlib, so a spiritual parent of whatever-Blizzard-wrote even if they started from scratch) or really anything with a foreach()ish loop and the ability to derecurse object code, apparently.
Post by: hector13 on April 04, 2020, 06:28:38 pm
Because nobody really cares about it (‘cause it has no teeth and the Dem governor isn’t going to do anything beyond lip service as a result of the Republican controlled legislature) the curve is in fact getting steeper, which is cool and all, but I don’t particularly want to get sick, so yay idiots thinking they’re safe because there’s only a handful of confirmed cases outside of Milwaukee and Madison.
Steeper and steeper, yo. (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/index.htm)
Post by: Iduno on April 04, 2020, 06:46:40 pm
This doesn't make sense, states are already receiving supplies from the federal stockpile.I hope the same.This here article is in pt-br, but the USA has jacked equipment meant for Brazil, France and Germany (https://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2020/04/04/coronavirus-eua-sao-acusados-de-pirataria-e-desvio-de-equipamentos-que-iriam-para-alemanha-franca-e-brasil.ghtml).
The way things are going international markets are not reliable anymore. Countries are outright stealing each other's orders.
Combined with the federal government in the US stealing shipments intended for individual states, to be kept for federal uses. And Jared Kushner has stated that states may not use anything from the federal stockpile.
*Some* states have. It's a political thing. Unlike most politicians, he does it out in the open where everyone can see and prove it, if they wanted to.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 04, 2020, 06:51:55 pm
He's a horrible fucking human being trying to hurt people he wants to hurt. Same as trump. It's not justifiable by anything anyone reasonable would consider ethical, just corrupt and cruel.
But in our modern world, cruelty is rarely for cruelty's sake. Nowadays villains just do it for the benjamins like some kind of pathetic sellouts. Where'd the romance in it go?
I was just wondering whether there was a self-promoting motive behind it or Mr. Jar Jar is just the ultra-rare, nearly-extinct comic-book villain type.
Post by: Starver on April 04, 2020, 07:37:20 pm
Steeper and steeper, yo. (https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/index.htm)
Spoiler: Could be worse... (click to show/hide)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 04, 2020, 09:16:46 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Max™ on April 04, 2020, 09:33:52 pm
Well, were I going out in public I'd do a t-shirt ninja or something for a simple yet obvious reason in hindsight: seeing someone wearing a mask is a cue that they're taking it seriously, reinforcing the social information transfer the last or next time you see someone in a mask, and making you more likely to take it seriously and do things like wear a mask which reminds others.
It also helps prevent touching your face, and has a fairly low but real % chance of preventing stuff you breathe out from spreading as far.
I may not automatically notice these sorts of cues and respond accordingly, but it seems important to point out as an assburger so you folks with the normal social software running can help share/reinforce said memetic infection because it isn't going to kill anyone while we've still got people acting like this isn't a big deal as the (far lower than the real total) number of known deaths will go full Vegeta tonight.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 04, 2020, 09:38:44 pm
There's also this alleged story about Massachusetts having N95 mask orders seized by the federal government: https://imgur.com/gallery/993zhsv
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 04, 2020, 10:15:55 pm
Didn't see this brought up but in case anybody was wondering about stuff like some of the suggestions to wear even a homemade mask because what could it do if the virus can't be stopped without very fine filtration capabilities, so why bother right?It's not even that low, either to prevent you from breating shit out or from breathing shit in
Well, were I going out in public I'd do a t-shirt ninja or something for a simple yet obvious reason in hindsight: seeing someone wearing a mask is a cue that they're taking it seriously, reinforcing the social information transfer the last or next time you see someone in a mask, and making you more likely to take it seriously and do things like wear a mask which reminds others.
It also helps prevent touching your face, and has a fairly low but real % chance of preventing stuff you breathe out from spreading as far.
https://smartairfilters.com/en/blog/best-materials-make-diy-face-mask-virus/
(https://smartairfilters.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Mask-Materials-Effectiveness-0.02-Microns-EN-1024x789.jpg)
All of them will prevent major droplets from hitting you. And, as you can see even a cotton T shirt will filter a % of a viral particle aerosol. This matters a lot . Even if you end up breathing in a quantity of virus, making it a lower dose will make it less likely than you'll get infected. And possibly will make the infection less severe too (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimal_infective_dose#Dose-effect_relationship_and_dose-response_relationship).
This shit about it "not really protecting"... it's a saving throw by our goverments to try to explain the bullshit reasons they gave in the last few weeks for not recommending masks (as opposed to the REAL reason... that there is a shortage and they wanted to stock up).
Consider, if it was true that surgical masks (or DIY masks for that matter) didn't help... why would medical staff wear them in hospitals when N95s were unavaiable? And why were they used so commonly during seasonal flu to deal with influenza positive patients? If they did nothing
No, both facts and common sense suggest that ANY sort of mask is better than NO mask. And I think it's good pedagogy for the population to explain that it's not only a civic duty (reducing the odds of infecting other people if you are unwittingly COVID19+), but also their own protection (reducing the odds of being infected yourself if you aren't). Both functions are true. And I think people will be more mindful of being responsible if they're reminded of this.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 05, 2020, 12:30:52 am
The message I saw was: If you're medical staff caring for the sick then you're likely to be coughed on and you're likely to be highly compliant with procedures regarding mask use, so please do wear them. If you're sick, then you'll be coughing all around you so, likewise, please wear them. If you're thinking of wearing them in public where you're not likely to be in close contact with other people and coughed on (assuming you comply with distancing recommendations), while you're likely to contaminate the mask from surfaces, then why bother - you're just wasting the material needed elsewhere.
If there's a shift in recommendations, it's because new information regarding asymptomatics and droplet range/production has been coming in, not because the jig is up.
I don't entirely understand why people keep taking that and insisting it's internally inconsistent so must be a lie.
Post by: wierd on April 05, 2020, 03:06:10 am
Indoors, this can combine with dust particles, to create a persistent inhalation hazard. (assuming you have enough human traffic and virus aerosols)
After a certain threshold, everyone obeying standard precautions starts to make sense, even if the precautions they can take are not hospital grade, which is what Poo is really stating here.
Post by: Max™ on April 05, 2020, 03:08:18 am
Similarly I would hate for people to think they should go grab N95 masks to wear while walking in an empty park, those full protection types are sadly too rare and too goddamn important for people who literally have to be around infectious cases to save their lives so I could see an argument for lying to keep civilians from acting like they're the next toilet paper but it's not going to work out as well as simple information and honest discussion of risk factors and sane preventative measures.
Insane: licking turnstiles at a subway stop near a heavily hit hospital and frenching strangers who cough
Sane: not touching your face and washing your hands for long enough often enough to work
Insane: running your groceries through an autoclave before soaking them in alcohol for a week
Sane: mixing up a suitable bleach/water dilution to wipe down anything you're really worried has been coughed on
Insane: rolling around in a plastic bubble with airlocks while wearing full PPE
Sane: sparing the N95 supplies for doctors and nurses while wearing whichever level of protection you can reliably obtain/clean
Insane: listening to your racist boomer uncle justify nonsense Trump vomits during his press briefings
Sane: making sure your headphones are working any time you walk past a stupid old cunt like that
Post by: Trekkin on April 05, 2020, 04:25:40 am
I don't entirely understand why people keep taking that and insisting it's internally inconsistent so must be a lie.
In a word, it's bikeshedding. Nobody likes to feel useless, but we're facing a crisis where the best thing most people can do is hide at home and wait while the boffins get to work. There's no voting or activism into which they can channel their energies and feel like part of the solution, in sharp contrast to the political problems of the past four years. Plus which, this is a very abstruse crisis for most people; why the virus does what it does and how is difficult to understand to a satisfactory degree without a background in biology. The mask thing is a comprehensible, human facet of things onto which they can bring all their understanding of "the real world" to bear, and through which they can vent some of their anxiety at being faced with an urgent problem they can do nothing significant to solve.
There are other elements too, like our cultural conflation of reflexive disbelief with skepticism and a social media void that demands hot takes on everything, but I think the core of it is simply that catching the government in a lie is about the only thing that can make most people feel relevant.
Post by: Reelya on April 05, 2020, 04:29:32 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 05, 2020, 04:46:56 am
I really don't think anyone was lying when they did not recommend the use of masks. It would have to be some coordinated effort or an odd coincidence (coincidence? don't think so!) to have all those organisations and individuals from all around the world decide people must be lied to in the same manner, because that's the only way to combat mask scarcity. As far as I'm aware, the message has been the same all along and it never involved telling people that masks can't stop droplets.I've caught them in way more lies. I'm talking about my goverment of course. It's not just the face masks. It's that, plus the supposed PPE availability that isn't happening (PPE has been "about to arrive" for two weeks. It's not there. I have enough friends in the biz to be able to run an impromptu survey of the whole country), the claims about healthcare personnel being able to get tested even if they were asymptomatic contacts (ditto. I know of people with mild symptoms who WERENT tested at all and were required to keep working). Claiming there wouldn't be local spread when there were already several people dead. Claiming that we wouldn't go the way of Italy when the numbers clearly stated that we were doing WORSE than Italy. And the list goes on and on. I could spend the whole morning commenting on the utter bullshit the goverment has been spouting during the last two weeks' press conferences.
The message I saw was: If you're medical staff caring for the sick then you're likely to be coughed on and you're likely to be highly compliant with procedures regarding mask use, so please do wear them. If you're sick, then you'll be coughing all around you so, likewise, please wear them. If you're thinking of wearing them in public where you're not likely to be in close contact with other people and coughed on (assuming you comply with distancing recommendations), while you're likely to contaminate the mask from surfaces, then why bother - you're just wasting the material needed elsewhere.
If there's a shift in recommendations, it's because new information regarding asymptomatics and droplet range/production has been coming in, not because the jig is up.
I don't entirely understand why people keep taking that and insisting it's internally inconsistent so must be a lie.
Heck, even the bit about silent carriers isnt particularily new. I learned about it on the 14th of March as someone linked an italian article on the subject. Even more stuff from China was published a few days later. And friends of mine who work on micro tell me that it was already openly discussed in the profession in late february.
Post by: martinuzz on April 05, 2020, 06:59:40 am
If this number rises, the government will consider a lockdown.
In other news, the corona death toll in North America is now higher than the death toll in all of Asia combined.
Post by: McTraveller on April 05, 2020, 08:43:46 am
Also, I'd say at least 50% of the people in the store were wearing masks of various types. So way more than last week. So maybe the population of MI is "Doing something."
Also, I filled up my car's gas tank. Only $1.20 a US gallon... wow. Haven't seen prices that low in literally 20 years.
Post by: Starver on April 05, 2020, 09:40:45 am
It also helps prevent touching your face, and has a fairly low but real % chance of preventing stuff you breathe out from spreading as far.Arguable. In a supermarket queue the other day, the two ladies behind me (usually by at least a couple of metres, naturally) were wearing blue gloves (https://firefly.fandom.com/wiki/Hands_of_Blue) and simple but probably fairly effective ear-loop mask clothes, all well and good[1] except they kept adjusting the masks while chatting on their respective phones[2].
Yes, still with gloves, but that just means that they were potentially cross-infecting with whatever they had put the gloves on to not touch directly. Or, if they were infective themselves, they were probably infecting their gloves from their pathogen-riddled masks, less heedfully touching other things with them and (given the evidence of the many already seen littering in and around that supermarket car-park) then stripping them off[3] and dropping them on the floor to be blown and kicked around until someone (hopefully with a grabber!) goes round with a binbag at some point.
[1] - Though incongruous as accessories to their open-toed faux-furred sandals, a brief furry and differently luridly coloured 'dressing gown'-type jacket (think Health Spa staff member, but the logos were fashion retailers not anything Spa-like) over ”Oh, this old thing..?" dressed-up-to-dress-down two-piece outfits that could have been bed-wear just modest enough to also go shopping in...
[2] - In that "hold flat, talk to them like you're playing a flute" style that appraises even me, 2m away, of both ends of each dialogue being had, if I'd care to try to tune my ears in.
[3] I doubt with the care that is necessary, at least on removing the second glove with the first bared hand.
Post by: Starver on April 05, 2020, 09:46:38 am
FTFY *hic*Insane:running yourgroceries,through an autoclave beforesoaking them in alcohol for a week
Post by: Starver on April 05, 2020, 10:15:00 am
My landlord [...] started going on about the "5G". 5G is barely available in this country yet. But my landlord is also a cretin.It must be the 5G. Why else would masks labelled 3M be so common? It's all Math(s), biyatch!
Weekly grocery store trip this morning. Stocks almost back to normal -
[...]
Also, I filled up my car's gas tank. Only $1.20 a US gallon... wow. Haven't seen prices that low in literally 20 years.
A week or so ago, I got some discounted bread (sell-by on day of purchase) and took that as a sign that things were getting 'better'. That was before the shop concerned even switched to the queueueueueue-¾-of-the-way-round-the-carpark (not that many people, just spread out a lot) with a tallyman or two on the singly-opened door to ensure an N-out/N-in rule was enforced, since when it may have been a long wait to get in but, apart from TP (still?[1]) there's a lot of most things that was maybe depleted before.
Most annoying is the reduction in ranges. Already last year they stopped doing the bread I like (not fancy, just not "supermarket brown") and now the particular type of Tortellini I like is absent from the (otherwise well-stocked) shelves. #FirstWorldProblem? I did note that there weren't as many brands of 'margarine', either, I usually can get a Kilo tub reduced to £2 (whatever brand - not fussy) but I had to get two 500g tubs each reduced to £1 instead. Plenty of them, so no guilt attached to my compulsion there.
Fuel at the attached petrol station was something like £1.04p(.9) for Unleaded, £1.11.9 for diesel. Which (I'll check later) isn't a price-range I've seen/bought-at since the Noughties. Maybe slightly earlier. Need to find the prior car's fuel book to track down what I was paying when. (On the web, I'm told average prices in this and nearby areas are around 120 & 122p, plus fractions, and the minimums are 114 & 115. So that's wring.). I'll leave it to you to convert our GB£/litre to your US$/gallon, or any other local equivalent.
[1] - I haven't bought any packs since the middle of last year, for two households, and I can probably last for a couple more months before I have to consider seeing if the less-used house could 'donate' a roll or two to the busier one.
Post by: Iduno on April 05, 2020, 10:29:38 am
(https://smartairfilters.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Mask-Materials-Effectiveness-0.02-Microns-EN-1024x789.jpg)
Why no demin? I assume most people have jeans that are worn out enough to be repurposed, and the material is dense enough that it should work. Maybe too thick, and hard to breathe through?
My landlord was just over to collect the rent, wearing gloves and wanting me to stay 2 metres away, and he started going on about the "5G". 5G is barely available in this country yet. But my landlord is also a cretin.
Never open the door without your phone in your hand. I assume it would work like a vampire and a crucifix.
FTFY *hic*Insane:running yourgroceries:through an autoclave before soaking them inalcohol for a week
[3] I doubt with the care that is necessary, at least on removing the second glove with the first bared hand.
https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/poster-how-to-remove-gloves.pdf (https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/poster-how-to-remove-gloves.pdf)
(Sorry, didn't think I'd be making multiple replies. Bunching these two together to stop it getting much worse.)
As long as nobody else has posted yet, nobody minds you just editing to add stuff.
Post by: Starver on April 05, 2020, 11:01:11 am
WellFTFY *hic*Insane:running yourgroceries:through an autoclave before soaking them inalcohol for a week
Quote
As long as nobody else has posted yet, nobody minds you just editing to add stuff.But the moment one does that, someone else does post, and you have to decide to re-de-edit the first back to what it was to legitimately enact the additional point it in a virginal follow-up that even your follow-upper now can't help but notice!
(I was just surprised that it hadn't moved in, intersticial to me. And it's awkwarder than it should be to multiquote via this interface than on a sensible machine. So I went with the wrong choice, and then refrained from deleting and rolling them all back into the first, which may now have been read even if not replied to, causing... 'edge conditions'. Maybe next time, though...)
Post by: feelotraveller on April 05, 2020, 11:47:36 am
Also, I filled up my car's gas tank. Only $1.20 a US gallon... wow. Haven't seen prices that low in literally 20 years.
Absolutely nothing to do with the Saudi-Russia oil price war, no sirree.
Post by: Frumple on April 05, 2020, 02:28:06 pm
You can comfortably say the entire fucking state is infected with the crow plague now :-\
I guess another, what, two, three weeks for the first round of deaths to peak? Then we might get something of a respite for a little while...
Post by: Max™ on April 05, 2020, 02:49:32 pm
Fauci: It's... it's over 9000!
Trump: *crushes a ventilator for some reason probably to fuck over blue state governors* WHAT NINE THOUSAAAAAND?
Post by: martinuzz on April 05, 2020, 03:40:52 pm
Spokesmen ensure that it's nothing to worry about, he's just admitted for testing.
Post by: Starver on April 05, 2020, 04:38:07 pm
(Seriously, though, he's been looking rough on some of the shots of his videolinking-in. He always favoured 'bedraggled' while trying to look 'affably approachable', which probably helped with his philandering as well, but it wasn't that.)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 05, 2020, 04:53:25 pm
Post by: Quarque on April 05, 2020, 06:07:53 pm
You can comfortably say the entire fucking state is infected with the crow plague now :-\For context, keep in mind that an "entire state" being infected is at a level of bad that we haven't seen yet. Nowhere did a majority of the population get infected nation-wide: not in Italy, nor in New York. Thanks to self isolation, mostly - those measures are working.
If it would really get that bad, we would not be counting the dead in thousands anymore. There would also be no room in any hospital for the vast majority of patients. This is the `steep curve` scenario we need to avoid.
Post by: Quarque on April 05, 2020, 06:10:11 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 05, 2020, 06:35:06 pm
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2020, 01:25:27 am
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/4/21207927/5g-towers-burning-uk-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-link
Post by: Zangi on April 06, 2020, 01:39:30 am
Some people have decided that they need to destroy the cellphone towers to stop coronavirus. Just what everyone needs with the lockdowns..... Listening to the 2 videos in that article.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/4/21207927/5g-towers-burning-uk-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-link
Maybe sometimes, unmitigated free speech is bad. Sometimes.
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2020, 01:45:54 am
That plus the fact that having unlimited ability to filter your inputs means that ideological bubbles form. So, people are self-isolating into bubbles (helped along by algorithms which try and give you more of the stuff that you want to see), and inside each bubble, ideas rise to the top based on pure popularity.
Pretty much every idea on how to fix this has flaws. For example, you could say that every time you view one thing, we pair it with something saying the opposite. But that creates further problems: every evolution video would have to be paired with a creationist video, and every video which mentions the world being round must be paired with a flat-Earth video. And vice-versa. This would break people out of their bubbles, but would create a false equivalency problem along with it - every video saying some true thing would by definition be paired with a video full of lies.
Post by: martinuzz on April 06, 2020, 04:36:34 am
Our Volkskrant China correspondent (who has lived in China for many years now and speaks fluent Chinese) writes about taking the train:
"When I entered the train, I was assigned a carriage all to myself. Any other people in the wagon were asked by the train staff to leave to another carriage, and she heard him say that was because 'the foreigner is dangerous'".
She also has to show her papers nearly everywhere, from train station to shops, to show that she has been quarantined after having been outside the country (in fact, she was double quarantined, 2 weeks when she returned to Belgium (her home country), and again 2 weeks when she returned to China, and she expects to need to be quarantined for a 3d time when she returns to her own home in Beijing).
Her papers are meticulously checked a few times a day, sometimes taking up to 1.5h (when buying a train ticket).
Where when this all started, the world was afraid to let Chinese travellers enter their countries, now it is the other way around, the Chinese are terrified of any foreigners from countries that are coping with corona.
EDIT: Meanwhile in Madrid, an ice skating rink is being used to store the dead, while in Barcelona, parking garages are used to store coffins.
Post by: delphonso on April 06, 2020, 04:48:30 am
On the plus side, I was given a QR code to scan which will show I've been in China for more than 2 weeks - checks passport number. This has been enough to get past any issues. That said, I'll be going to an embassy this week and that might be a whole different beast.
Post by: Bralbaard on April 06, 2020, 04:53:20 am
I think the overall problem there is that truth becomes another popularity contest, and popularity contests haven't proven to be a good way of promoting the best of anything.
That plus the fact that having unlimited ability to filter your inputs means that ideological bubbles form. So, people are self-isolating into bubbles (helped along by algorithms which try and give you more of the stuff that you want to see), and inside each bubble, ideas rise to the top based on pure popularity.
Pretty much every idea on how to fix this has flaws. For example, you could say that every time you view one thing, we pair it with something saying the opposite. But that creates further problems: every evolution video would have to be paired with a creationist video, and every video which mentions the world being round must be paired with a flat-Earth video. And vice-versa. This would break people out of their bubbles, but would create a false equivalency problem along with it - every video saying some true thing would by definition be paired with a video full of lies.
It also doesn't help that with everybody confined to their homes, there is no escape possible from your online bubble. Under normal circumstances you would be at least somewhat likely to speak to colleagues or other people with different opinions and backgrounds. With the current lockdowns, impossiblity of normal social interactions, and atmosphere of paranoia, one can expect that the influence of conspiracy theories will increase a lot.
Post by: Trekkin on April 06, 2020, 05:33:51 am
Now people are remobilizing in China, cases are increasing. It coincides with shutting the borders to foreigners. Plus there were a few actual stories of Italians and Americans coming here and being infected. I've had to explain myself just once or twice. But I'm not in a big city these days, so others might have a different experience. Can't blame people for being cautious, and haven't seen anything turn nasty.
On the plus side, I was given a QR code to scan which will show I've been in China for more than 2 weeks - checks passport number. This has been enough to get past any issues. That said, I'll be going to an embassy this week and that might be a whole different beast.
Is there any indication anyone's against the wet markets reopening?
Post by: thompson on April 06, 2020, 06:59:23 am
Some people have decided that they need to destroy the cellphone towers to stop coronavirus. Just what everyone needs with the lockdowns.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/4/21207927/5g-towers-burning-uk-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-link
Be vigilant, citizen. You most certainly can catch viruses over the wireless. They come in through old Windows, but fear not as Apples can hold them at bay.
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2020, 07:40:16 am
However, the real story was that 3M wasn't really planning on exporting them (well some were earmarked for Canada, and now the Canadians are pissed off), the actual story is that most of their masks are made in Singapore, and Trump had demanded these ones be sent to the US instead of their intended use in the Asia-Pacific region. So the export ban was merely point-scoring and retaliatory because 3M told Trump "no". A very petty misuse of his emergency powers right there. It has also been a handy way of the US administration letting their regional allies know that their lives don't count for shit.
Basically if there are more restrictions on where American companies can deploy US-made masks then that just means they won't end up wanting to make as many in the USA. And if the US puts export bans on N95 masks then that might cause other governments to impose similar restrictions on selling masks to the USA.
Quote
"The company was reluctant to accept the White House request on legal and humanitarian grounds, as medical workers across the region would be deprived of protection," a source told the Financial Times. "3M executives did commit to exporting a similar number of masks to the US from a plant in China but that did not stop the White House from publicly attacking the company."
“Over the last several days we've had some issues making sure that all of the production that 3M does around the world, enough of it is coming back here to the right places," White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said on Thursday.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 06, 2020, 07:59:16 am
Post by: wierd on April 06, 2020, 08:00:28 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 06, 2020, 08:02:03 am
It's just infantile. I mean I'm all for rule of law, but sometimes you gotta just ignore the madmen.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 08:10:56 am
Right now it's impossible to know what awaits us at the end of the tunnel but international relations are at an all time low
Post by: Jimmy on April 06, 2020, 08:23:53 am
Quote
In response to this situation, the Chinese authorities issued an Order that tightly regulates the export of coronavirus medical devices and supplies from China. Under this Order, any Chinese exporter of listed medical devices must meet two requirements. First, the device must be registered in China through a Medical Device Product Registration Certificate. Second, the exporter must prove that the device complies with the regulations of the importing country as they apply to that device. Compliance with these requirements will be difficult or impossible for many otherwise legitimate Chinese manufacturers. This will constrict supply just when demand is exploding.
...
This Order raises three important issues. First, most Chinese manufacturers that manufacture medical devices for export do not bother to obtain a domestic Chinese registration. Since they manufacture exclusively for export, no such certification was ever required for their business and so they do not have one. This then means that most Chinese exporters of PPE and medical devices cannot comply with this Order. For example, The South China Morning Post writes that only 21 of 102 Chinese medical device companies with EU medical device certifications are licensed to sell their devices within China. In other words, 81 of these companies will now no longer be able to sell their medical devices to the EU.
We're in for a bad time, folks. The only companies who have the required licenses are now the companies that usually only sell their products to the domestic Chinese market. There's gonna be a heavy push for Chinese customs officials to clamp down hard on anything with the words 'medical' in the name, even including surgical masks and gowns. Expect anything that is "Made in China" to be "in China" only.
Post by: McTraveller on April 06, 2020, 08:36:05 am
It's paradoxical too, because humanity is also extremely capable of making bad situations less bad.
Post by: delphonso on April 06, 2020, 08:42:55 am
Now people are remobilizing in China, cases are increasing. It coincides with shutting the borders to foreigners. Plus there were a few actual stories of Italians and Americans coming here and being infected. I've had to explain myself just once or twice. But I'm not in a big city these days, so others might have a different experience. Can't blame people for being cautious, and haven't seen anything turn nasty.
On the plus side, I was given a QR code to scan which will show I've been in China for more than 2 weeks - checks passport number. This has been enough to get past any issues. That said, I'll be going to an embassy this week and that might be a whole different beast.
Is there any indication anyone's against the wet markets reopening?
Coalboat might be more in touch with that than me. Down here in Guangdong - absolutely none. But here, shutting down the wet market is effectively shutting down groceries. It's the primary and sometimes only option in smaller cities.
Bad news for everyone looking for PPE, China has made new laws that pretty much halt all export of medical supplies from the country (https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/04/buying-face-masks-and-other-ppe-from-china-just-got-a-lot-tougher.html).QuoteIn response to this situation, the Chinese authorities issued an Order that tightly regulates the export of coronavirus medical devices and supplies from China. Under this Order, any Chinese exporter of listed medical devices must meet two requirements. First, the device must be registered in China through a Medical Device Product Registration Certificate. Second, the exporter must prove that the device complies with the regulations of the importing country as they apply to that device. Compliance with these requirements will be difficult or impossible for many otherwise legitimate Chinese manufacturers. This will constrict supply just when demand is exploding.
...
This Order raises three important issues. First, most Chinese manufacturers that manufacture medical devices for export do not bother to obtain a domestic Chinese registration. Since they manufacture exclusively for export, no such certification was ever required for their business and so they do not have one. This then means that most Chinese exporters of PPE and medical devices cannot comply with this Order. For example, The South China Morning Post writes that only 21 of 102 Chinese medical device companies with EU medical device certifications are licensed to sell their devices within China. In other words, 81 of these companies will now no longer be able to sell their medical devices to the EU.
We're in for a bad time, folks. The only companies who have the required licenses are now the companies that usually only sell their products to the domestic Chinese market. There's gonna be a heavy push for Chinese customs officials to clamp down hard on anything with the words 'medical' in the name, even including surgical masks and gowns. Expect anything that is "Made in China" to be "in China" only.
I guess this is also a reaction to the bad press China (as a whole) is getting for Chinese products being insufficiently safe and checked.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 08:53:44 am
Quote
I guess this is also a reaction to the bad press China (as a whole) is getting for Chinese products being insufficiently safe and checked
Yes, thats certainly how the Chinese embassy in Spain was portraying it... not so much a sale restriction as an attempt to curtail defective products being out in the market (which is bad PR)
Post by: Zangi on April 06, 2020, 09:19:35 am
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2020, 09:33:56 am
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-04/china-coronavirus-covid-19-medical-supplies-recalled-regulation/12105110
Quote
China's coronavirus supplies are being rejected — how do we ensure quality in a pandemic?
...
China's efforts to help haven't gone smoothly, as several countries have reported faults with Chinese-made supplies.
This began with Spain's recall of about 58,000 inaccurate rapid COVID-19 test kits late last week, and Turkey also casting aside a number of sample test kits that were faulty.
This was then followed last Saturday by a Dutch recall of some 600,000 face masks that didn't provide an airtight seal.
Australia also found fault with Chinese products, with Border Force officials telling the ABC on Wednesday that it seized around 800,000 personal protective equipment (PPE) products worth $1.2 million in recent weeks.
So only 3 days ago the news was asking how we can ensure that these Chinese medical exports are up to standard. Now, we're freaking out that the Chinese are going to impose conditions requiring exporters meet the standards of the nation they're exporting to. Can't win, basically.
EDIT: BTW Jimmy, you cut off the part of your quote that explains that the more stringent standards for PPE from China were "In response to this situation" which was the fact that "In Europe, huge quantities of Chinese coronavirus test kits and medical use masks have been rejected as defective". There's really no need to jump to the conspiracy theory that this move is to stop other people getting PPE, when a perfectly reasonable explanation is right in the article you linked. China has enough industrial capacity to make all the PPE they need, plus enough to export to make money and keep their economy afloat. They want to sell more PPE, but if they export faulty PPE, people will stop buying it. Export demand for a lot of stuff has already dropped. China has no issue with exporting PPE if that's what's going to keep factories open.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 06, 2020, 11:16:18 am
https://www.theroot.com/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-decides-this-is-a-good-time-to-1842704862
Post by: coalboat on April 06, 2020, 11:55:03 am
Quote
Is there any indication anyone's against the wet markets reopening?
Coalboat might be more in touch with that than me. Down here in Guangdong - absolutely none. But here, shutting down the wet market is effectively shutting down groceries. It's the primary and sometimes only option in smaller cities.
This is true for older communes in Guangzhou. In Shenzhen (where I live) however the wet markets get fewer over the years. Most of the stores are supermarkets and small grocery stores with relatively clean floor.
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2020, 12:09:44 pm
Meanwhile in Georgia."Look... the beaches we officially closed are very empty, so we can officially open them up and they won't get any fuller...". That's how I read it.
https://www.theroot.com/georgia-gov-brian-kemp-decides-this-is-a-good-time-to-1842704862
(Like here in the UK, on a different issue, "Our motorways with a hard-shoulder for use only in emergencies are proven to be among the safest such roads in the world, so we don't see why converting that emergency lane into a full 'normal' lane permanently/intermittently would make the situation any less safe.")
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 12:38:51 pm
Hey, I was curious about something; are either you or delphonso Chinese, or are you from the US/Europe living in China?QuoteIs there any indication anyone's against the wet markets reopening?
Coalboat might be more in touch with that than me. Down here in Guangdong - absolutely none. But here, shutting down the wet market is effectively shutting down groceries. It's the primary and sometimes only option in smaller cities.
This is true for older communes in Guangzhou. In Shenzhen (where I live) however the wet markets get fewer over the years. Most of the stores are supermarkets and small grocery stores with relatively clean floor.
Post by: Frumple on April 06, 2020, 01:26:01 pm
Post by: Jopax on April 06, 2020, 01:33:41 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 06, 2020, 01:37:47 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 02:33:59 pm
Post by: misko27 on April 06, 2020, 03:06:42 pm
Yet still Foreign Minister Raab is not leading the government in his absence, and they claim he is in control enough to work from bed. Just comes off looking like denial.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 06, 2020, 03:15:53 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 03:20:31 pm
He had tweeted on Monday that he was in "good spirits" after moving to the Hospital on Sunday, allegedly for "testing". Gotta say it's looking rough for him, he's following the trendline of cases which go poorly.Just wanted to point out that any semi-important politician has a community manager..
Yet still Foreign Minister Raab is not leading the government in his absence, and they claim he is in control enough to work from bed. Just comes off looking like denial.
I was suspecting it from the start.... this while thing about going to the hospital "for tests". It doesnt compute. I also thought if he was half OK he'd have done a photo op by now.
My guess? He's already intubated
Post by: Jopax on April 06, 2020, 03:46:35 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 03:51:35 pm
I'm not even sure either the EU or the UK *can* afford any sort of Brexit at present. It was going to be economically bad for everyone by default, and right now it looks like both problems might compound each other.
I'd not be surprised if they decided to leave everything on standby for a few years.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 06, 2020, 03:52:39 pm
Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 06, 2020, 03:59:52 pm
YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Post by: Jopax on April 06, 2020, 04:06:11 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 04:27:23 pm
Hey don't kinkshame peopleYTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Post by: hector13 on April 06, 2020, 04:31:26 pm
I don't think he fucked it, he just put his penis in it.YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Where the distinction lies, I do not know.
Also, what else is he supposed to do while at university?
Also also, maybe Boris Johnson bragging about shaking hands with covid-19 patients and then getting sick with it will help people realise quite how stupid he is.
Post by: Grim Portent on April 06, 2020, 04:33:28 pm
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2020, 04:39:51 pm
I don't think he fucked it, he just put his penis in it.YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Where the distinction lies, I do not know.
It also wasn't a carcass, it was a pig's head. Which makes a lot more sense as a story: nobody was carting entire dead pigs around, those are huge. So the story is actually they had a pig's head and people stuck their willies in the mouth.
Post by: NJW2000 on April 06, 2020, 04:51:51 pm
Ostensibly, he did it to get into a society or something. I think its a Jew thing. As in, anyone who refuses fellatio from a dead pig must be Jewish.I don't think he fucked it, he just put his penis in it.YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Where the distinction lies, I do not know.
It also wasn't a carcass, it was a pig's head. Which makes a lot more sense as a story: nobody was carting entire dead pigs around, those are huge. So the story is actually they had a pig's head and people stuck their willies in the mouth.
Post by: feelotraveller on April 06, 2020, 04:54:17 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on April 06, 2020, 05:19:38 pm
The death curve has been plateauing here the past 2 days, though, so hopefully they won't have to resort to that
Post by: Max™ on April 06, 2020, 05:57:25 pm
Speaking of human to animal transmission - a tiger at the bronx zoo n.y. just got covid-19. One of the few documented cases before anyone panicks.Oh jesus why is this response after the sidebar about getting head from... er... a pig head?
Also feel I should point out that I was social distancing before it was cool, and unfortunately I have now earned my title: Pandemic Hipster.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 06, 2020, 05:59:41 pm
question: did people call y9u a Pandemic hipster? If so, who?Speaking of human to animal transmission - a tiger at the bronx zoo n.y. just got covid-19. One of the few documented cases before anyone panicks.Oh jesus why is this response after the sidebar about getting head from... er... a pig head?
Also feel I should point out that I was social distancing before it was cool, and unfortunately I have now earned my title: Pandemic Hipster.
Also, I tended to stay away from people too, and of course am still doing that now
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 06:04:02 pm
If you're close enough to a tiger for it to pass coronavirus onto you, then coronavirus is probably the least of your worriesSpeaking of human to animal transmission - a tiger at the bronx zoo n.y. just got covid-19. One of the few documented cases before anyone panicks.Oh jesus why is this response after the sidebar about getting head from... er... a pig head?
Also feel I should point out that I was social distancing before it was cool, and unfortunately I have now earned my title: Pandemic Hipster.
Post by: Max™ on April 06, 2020, 06:05:36 pm
The missus teases me regularly because I despise hipsterism to the point that I've pointed out my hatred of it before it was really a thing, and when I realized we were basically pandemic hipsters she officially christened me as one, to her amusement, and my chagrin. It's her birthday though so I gotta give her the point.question: did people call y9u a Pandemic hipster? If so, who?Speaking of human to animal transmission - a tiger at the bronx zoo n.y. just got covid-19. One of the few documented cases before anyone panicks.Oh jesus why is this response after the sidebar about getting head from... er... a pig head?
Also feel I should point out that I was social distancing before it was cool, and unfortunately I have now earned my title: Pandemic Hipster.
Also, I tended to stay away from people too, and of course am still doing that now
Post by: Iduno on April 06, 2020, 06:09:10 pm
Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
That was probably a weird place to start Black Mirror, an otherwise semi-interesting SciFi show.
YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Why did George Mallory climb Mount Everest?
Post by: TamerVirus on April 06, 2020, 06:23:25 pm
Why did George Mallory climb Mount Everest?To play hide and seek for 75 years?
Post by: Max™ on April 06, 2020, 06:35:33 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 06, 2020, 08:00:02 pm
Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
That was probably a weird place to start Black Mirror, an otherwise semi-interesting SciFi show.YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Why did George Mallory climb Mount Everest?
Why did George Mallory climb Mount Everest?To play hide and seek for 75 years?
Wait I know this one... BECAUSE HE WAS FUCKING THE CHICKEN?
All of this, why must some humans have such confusing behaviors? I, as a human, do not understand it. I can only imagine how confused AIs will be on our *lack of* handling a pandemic, and very very unsanitary practicesOstensibly, he did it to get into a society or something. I think its a Jew thing. As in, anyone who refuses fellatio from a dead pig must be Jewish.I don't think he fucked it, he just put his penis in it.YTF would anyone F a pig carcass?Turns out this whole thing was a ploy to get him out of the whole Brexit situation, who'd have thunk it :VI would have thought that David "It's 2020 and I'm still reminding you that David Cameron fucked a dead pig in his fraternity" Cameron would forever be the PM who most completely avoided the consequences of his government, but here comes BORIS with the steel chair his ventilator is sitting on.
Where the distinction lies, I do not know.
It also wasn't a carcass, it was a pig's head. Which makes a lot more sense as a story: nobody was carting entire dead pigs around, those are huge. So the story is actually they had a pig's head and people stuck their willies in the mouth.
Post by: hector13 on April 06, 2020, 08:02:18 pm
Post by: Max™ on April 06, 2020, 08:28:17 pm
Post by: delphonso on April 06, 2020, 09:17:09 pm
This is true for older communes in Guangzhou. In Shenzhen (where I live) however the wet markets get fewer over the years. Most of the stores are supermarkets and small grocery stores with relatively clean floor.
Sorry, coalboat, I thought you were in the Shanghai area. Yeah, when I lived in Shenzhen there were almost no wet markets. I'm living in one of the old communities between Guangzhou and Shenzhen now - but in Kunming it was about equally split - half wet markets half supermarkets. They could probably deal with the wet markets being shut down.
Hey, I was curious about something; are either you or delphonso Chinese, or are you from the US/Europe living in China?I'm not, I'm American living here. Been living in China on and off for about 4 years though and decided to stay for good within the last year.
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2020, 10:35:15 pm
Speaking of human to animal transmission - a tiger at the bronx zoo n.y. just got covid-19. One of the few documented cases before anyone panicks.Aaaaarrrrrgggghhhh! Tigers are endemic to the Bronx!
All of this, why must some humans have such confusing behaviors? I, as a human, do not understand it. I can only imagine how confused AIs will be on our *lack of* handling a pandemic, and very very unsanitary practicesJust wait until Eliza (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA) goes on hen-night frolicks with Melissa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melissa_(computer_virus))!
Post by: coalboat on April 06, 2020, 10:53:21 pm
I thought you were in the Shanghai area.Hey, I was curious about something; are either you or delphonso Chinese, or are you from the US/Europe living in China?
Yeah I talked about elevators in Shanghai. I live in Shenzhen.
Chairman I'm Chinese. BTW your username is a censor-worthy political meme in China.XD
Post by: wierd on April 06, 2020, 11:01:54 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 11:06:24 pm
Anyways, I was curious about the take of the average pedestrian in China with the largely botched Covid19 management in Europe and the US.
Post by: ZBridges on April 06, 2020, 11:09:45 pm
Source: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison (https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2020, 11:15:49 pm
Neither cotton masks nor surgical masks worn by infected patients actually filter out the virus and prevent its spread.There are several strong caveats about that study.
Source: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison (https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison)
First: it's very small. Only 4 patients
Second:
Quote
petri dish (90 mm × 15 mm) containing 1 mL of viral transport media (sterile phosphate-buffered saline with bovine serum albumin, 0.1%; penicillin, 10 000 U/mL; streptomycin, 10 mg; and amphotericin B, 25 µg) was placed approximately 20 cm from the patients' mouths.That's hardly representative of 6 foot social distancing for the purpose of measuring exposure. And for that matter this only addresses the viral aerosol, not respiratory droplets, which any mask would stop completely.
Tbh I dont think that's representative of anything except of the chances of getting infected while filming covid19 porn...
Third:
Quote
The median viral loads after coughs without a mask, with a surgical mask, and with a cotton mask were 2.56 log copies/mL, 2.42 log copies/mL, and 1.85 log copies/mL, respectively.So there IS a reduction in the number of copies.
Now, we know masks are not perfect, much less non-HEPA masks. But if the infected guy wears a mask, and you wear a mask too, and he stands 6 feet away... you're going to reduce your exposure a whole frigging lot. You are hedging the odds in your favor for not getting infected, or, if infected, to have it happen with a lower viral load
Edit:
For that matter we have good evidence that masks help to prevent viral infections, from past epidemics
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4699551/
Post by: ZBridges on April 06, 2020, 11:17:43 pm
Post by: delphonso on April 06, 2020, 11:19:39 pm
The old couple here think the US has devolved into active Chinese hunts with Asian-descent citizens being killed in the streets. They took the call for Americans to return home (since flights might shut down for a while) as a clue of the impending Sino-American war.
More sane views are absolute confusion on how such a powerful country can mess things up so much. My girlfriend sees it as the US actively showing that it doesn't care about its citizens. Things seemingly were handled well here, and why others didn't do the same is incomprehensible.
A couple guys I know don't care at all except that NBA is cancelled. So, a wide range in my experience.
Post by: nenjin on April 06, 2020, 11:31:36 pm
On that note, I believe I saw someone at the store today walking around with an oxygen deprivation mask. Athletes wear them while they run or weight train to simulate training at high altitudes, adapting to and learning to perform on less oxygen, so when they're getting full oxygen they're super charged. Weighted training clothes, basically.
Anyways, I was wondering how long it would take me to see that. I'm pretty sure though any filtering that thing might do will be purely by accident.....
Quote
The old couple here think the US has devolved into active Chinese hunts with Asian-descent citizens being killed in the streets. They took the call for Americans to return home (since flights might shut down for a while) as a clue of the impending Sino-American war.
Well, you can cheerfully reply that some dumb asses here think the Chinese manufactured the virus and unleashed it on their own people to kill the elderly and do some population culling, then let it slip out in the rest of the world to undermine other nations in preparation for the Sino-American War.
.....On second thought, maybe don't say any of that.
Quote
More sane views are absolute confusion on how such a powerful country can mess things up so much.
I think the thing is, and I kinda predicted this.....the Chinese think the American government acts like the Chinese government. That if the American government tells us to "do something" that we'll do it because the reasoned heads of state clearly think it's the right thing to do and we're all good citizens.
When in fact, the minute anyone was told to do anything, a good number of Americans did the exact opposite, because "Freedom." And Trump explicitly did not provide any guidance or leadership or direction to any of the states, like a national Covid containment policy everyone had to follow, either "out of respect for states rights" or literally doing nothing to undermine people's faith in government so he can say we need even less of it. (Which frees up tax payer money to, I dunno, fire directly into the stock market with a giant money cannon. Or maybe build another 2 miles of that stupid fucking wall.)
I always used to wonder about seeing Asian folks wearing surgical masks in news footage, or seeing immigrants here in my town walking around in surgical masks during your average flu season and finding it odd. Reality is though Asia has dealt with these kinds of things many times in its past. Covid is exceptional but the awareness of the spread of disease is typical for Asia, or at least in particular, China. Here in the US though, we've never taken it that seriously. We've never really had to in most of the population's living memory. Many underestimated its impact and spread and lethality.
So when they wonder how it could fall apart, it's the combination of no national policy of containment, every state doing its own thing, setting its own rules, relying on its own resources (because we don't need government, remember? Everything is better when the states just sort it out themselves), and American individualism where people STILL RIGHT NOW are doing things like hanging out in groups of 5 or more, going to places where many other people are, and so forth.
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2020, 11:37:15 pm
...it's actually not directly related to your late premier.It was probably not the late Mao, but the current Xi (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/07/china-bans-winnie-the-pooh-film-to-stop-comparisons-to-president-xi) that was meant. Really such a surprisingly obvious meme, especially with those twofors with other world leaders. (Imagine the time spent needed to search between both film frames and press footage!)
((Yeah, technically Xi is Gen.Sec., not Chairman, but that's probably because after Chairman Mao was Chairman Hua, and after Hua was Hu. The obvious next Chairman (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_%22H%22_Watkins) was not yet available to appoint, so they switched that title out, for a while, but maybe later..?))
Post by: delphonso on April 06, 2020, 11:51:55 pm
I heard the mask wearing behavior relates to the Spanish flu, actually. I've always seen it as a way to keep others safe when you feel a bit ill, as well as cover up pimples/lack of make up (very common). I really don't get why some people feel uncomfortable wearing them - other than physical discomfort.
I think the Winnie thing was rooted in more direct anti-party posts and comments, and then turned into wide spread banning of images containing him probably as a catch-all or Youtube Content ID level AI, even if some was harmless ribbing.
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2020, 11:59:18 pm
I should mention - the old couple just sort of believe whatever they read, but do have the good sense to ask me about it - and I've put their concerns at ease, mostly.All except the bit about you being a Foreign Imperialist Mouthpiece, I'm sure... ;)
Quote
I think the Winnie thing was rooted in more direct anti-party posts and comments, and then turned into wide spread banning of images containing him probably as a catch-all or Youtube Content ID level AI, even if some was harmless ribbing.And if Xi chooses not to wear pants (or indeed anything else below his midriff) then that's nothing to do with anyone else!
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 06, 2020, 11:59:22 pm
Post by: delphonso on April 07, 2020, 12:09:06 am
Anyway, going into Guangzhou tomorrow. First time being in a major city with a lot of cases since this started. Morbidly eager to see what it's like.
Post by: Max™ on April 07, 2020, 12:17:00 am
PROXY OR TRADE ONRY
Post by: Reelya on April 07, 2020, 12:22:43 am
PROXY OR TRADE ONRY
Is that a typo or was it meant to be a Chinese thing?
It's kind of amusing (but very racist) to assume China can't pronounce the "LY" part of the word "Only". What's the most common surname in China?
Post by: Starver on April 07, 2020, 12:24:54 am
It's just razy lacism!PROXY OR TRADE ONRY
Is that a typo or was it meant to be a Chinese thing?
It's kind of amusing (but very racist) to assume China can't pronounce the "LY" part of words "Only". What's the most common surname in China?
Post by: scriver on April 07, 2020, 12:27:10 am
Of course, English speakers can't pronounce R either, so this particular might be lost on you :P
Post by: Reelya on April 07, 2020, 12:37:11 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_of_the_Three_Kingdoms_(R) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_of_the_Three_Kingdoms_(R))
It really is lazy. Japanese is the language with no distinction between L and R.
Post by: coalboat on April 07, 2020, 12:56:38 am
Anyways, I was curious about the take of the average pedestrian in China with the largely botched Covid19 management in Europe and the US.
Some think the reason why other countries fail to contain the outbreak is that they are too "free". Some disbelieve what is happening in EU and US, thinking it's yet another propaganda.
A few days ago a clip of Spanish policemen reading "a letter from Pikachu" to children staying home was shared on the Internet. Many found this lovely.
Post by: coalboat on April 07, 2020, 01:01:31 am
In some dialects it is pronounced as Z, in others it can be L or even Ny. In one Hubeiese dialect, the diminutive suffix is pronounced exactly as a Rrrrr trill.
Post by: misko27 on April 07, 2020, 02:15:42 am
Anyway, going into Guangzhou tomorrow. First time being in a major city with a lot of cases since this started. Morbidly eager to see what it's like.I was reminded of the people who studied the spread of the "Corrupted Blood" plague from WoW as a case study, and how there were what was considered at the time to be unrealistic situations like people "darting in and out" in order to just see all the hub-bub quickly before disappearing soon after, hoping to avoid it. I am also reminded of going to the store to pick up stuff, in part to see how other people were reacting in the store, and noting the high volume of people, at least some of whom were there to do precisely the same as myself.
I suggest caution in indulging in morbidity.
Post by: Jimmy on April 07, 2020, 03:57:58 am
EDIT: BTW Jimmy, you cut off the part of your quote that explains that the more stringent standards for PPE from China were "In response to this situation" which was the fact that "In Europe, huge quantities of Chinese coronavirus test kits and medical use masks have been rejected as defective". There's really no need to jump to the conspiracy theory that this move is to stop other people getting PPE, when a perfectly reasonable explanation is right in the article you linked. China has enough industrial capacity to make all the PPE they need, plus enough to export to make money and keep their economy afloat. They want to sell more PPE, but if they export faulty PPE, people will stop buying it. Export demand for a lot of stuff has already dropped. China has no issue with exporting PPE if that's what's going to keep factories open.My apologies if I come off as having aluminium headgear. I know the official reasons, and they're good ones. However, I also have a measure of mistrust for a system that claims to have zero new cases within the epicenter of the original outbreak. Li Wenliang (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang). Chen Qiushi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Qiushi). Fang Bin (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51486106). Li Zehua (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/li-zehuajournalist-wouldnt-stay-quiet-covid-19-coronavirus). Other voices that are now gone. They all spoke of an ugly truth, that the emperor has no clothes.
Post by: Max™ on April 07, 2020, 04:37:13 am
Sorry, FFXI habit turned meme due to the reaction of jp players to the new influx of na newbies and insisting JP ONRY.PROXY OR TRADE ONRY
Is that a typo or was it meant to be a Chinese thing?
It's kind of amusing (but very racist) to assume China can't pronounce the "LY" part of the word "Only". What's the most common surname in China?
Post by: mko on April 07, 2020, 05:03:20 am
Quote
Patients were instructed to cough 5 times each onto a petri dishSo effectiveness during just breathing/talking was not tested at all?
Neither cotton masks nor surgical masks worn by infected patients actually filter out the virus and prevent its spread.There are several strong caveats about that study.
Source: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison (https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison)
First: it's very small. Only 4 patients
Second:Quotepetri dish (90 mm × 15 mm) containing 1 mL of viral transport media (sterile phosphate-buffered saline with bovine serum albumin, 0.1%; penicillin, 10 000 U/mL; streptomycin, 10 mg; and amphotericin B, 25 µg) was placed approximately 20 cm from the patients' mouths.That's hardly representative of 6 foot social distancing for the purpose of measuring exposure. And for that matter this only addresses the viral aerosol, not respiratory droplets, which any mask would stop completely.
Tbh I dont think that's representative of anything except of the chances of getting infected while filming covid19 porn...
Third:QuoteThe median viral loads after coughs without a mask, with a surgical mask, and with a cotton mask were 2.56 log copies/mL, 2.42 log copies/mL, and 1.85 log copies/mL, respectively.So there IS a reduction in the number of copies.
Now, we know masks are not perfect, much less non-HEPA masks. But if the infected guy wears a mask, and you wear a mask too, and he stands 6 feet away... you're going to reduce your exposure a whole frigging lot. You are hedging the odds in your favor for not getting infected, or, if infected, to have it happen with a lower viral load
Edit:
For that matter we have good evidence that masks help to prevent viral infections, from past epidemics
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5153448/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4699551/
Post by: coalboat on April 07, 2020, 05:20:06 am
EDIT: BTW Jimmy, you cut off the part of your quote that explains that the more stringent standards for PPE from China were "In response to this situation" which was the fact that "In Europe, huge quantities of Chinese coronavirus test kits and medical use masks have been rejected as defective". There's really no need to jump to the conspiracy theory that this move is to stop other people getting PPE, when a perfectly reasonable explanation is right in the article you linked. China has enough industrial capacity to make all the PPE they need, plus enough to export to make money and keep their economy afloat. They want to sell more PPE, but if they export faulty PPE, people will stop buying it. Export demand for a lot of stuff has already dropped. China has no issue with exporting PPE if that's what's going to keep factories open.My apologies if I come off as having aluminium headgear. I know the official reasons, and they're good ones. However, I also have a measure of mistrust for a system that claims to have zero new cases within the epicenter of the original outbreak. Li Wenliang (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang). Chen Qiushi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chen_Qiushi). Fang Bin (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51486106). Li Zehua (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/li-zehuajournalist-wouldnt-stay-quiet-covid-19-coronavirus). Other voices that are now gone. They all spoke of an ugly truth, that the emperor has no clothes.
Factories that rely on export are facing a severe decrease in demand, and workers lose their job. The government probably wouldn't miss any export opportunity. Even "evil" governments need their tax...
Post by: thompson on April 07, 2020, 05:21:26 am
Post by: Jimmy on April 07, 2020, 05:41:40 am
Because, god damn, Jacinda is kicking ass.
She's a hell of a leader to have for a crisis.
Kinda feel like us Aussies would really benefit from just becoming the west island of NZ.
Post by: mko on April 07, 2020, 07:20:23 am
I won’t repeat the quote to conserve scrolling effort, but those reductions from wearing a mask are huge. If it’s log base 10 you’re getting 28% less virus with a surgical mask, and an 80% reduction from cotton. By comparison, 2m of physical distancing reduced viral exposure by how much exactly? 50% maybe, depending on how close you were before. Sounds like they’ve pretty conclusively proven effectiveness to me.More reduction from cotton than with surgical? It seems unlikely (either you or this study missed something).
Post by: Iduno on April 07, 2020, 09:59:13 am
The people around me are dumb-founded, but also getting skewed news.
The old couple here think the US has devolved into active Chinese hunts with Asian-descent citizens being killed in the streets. They took the call for Americans to return home (since flights might shut down for a while) as a clue of the impending Sino-American war.
More sane views are absolute confusion on how such a powerful country can mess things up so much. My girlfriend sees it as the US actively showing that it doesn't care about its citizens. Things seemingly were handled well here, and why others didn't do the same is incomprehensible.
A couple guys I know don't care at all except that NBA is cancelled. So, a wide range in my experience.
I think harassment and assaults of anyone Asian-looking is up here, but it's not at the point of people being hunted down and eliminated. I'll agree with your girlfriend's assessment, though.
Anyone following New Zealand?
Probably just the Australians are.
Post by: Frumple on April 07, 2020, 01:20:29 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 07, 2020, 03:19:56 pm
Post by: hector13 on April 07, 2020, 04:08:04 pm
Republicans are the problem here, saying there’s no reason to postpone or call off the election or give everyone an absentee ballot.
Post by: wierd on April 07, 2020, 04:36:10 pm
You know, because of how deeply in denial they are about the situation. (Because actually allowing people time to vote properly would potentially upset their hegemony, which is based ideologically on the notion of keeping the status quo alive, and the current situation is anything BUT the prior status quo they want to protect and preserve to sustain that hegemony. SO--- they operate with blind and callous disregard to public safety, pretent that the current pandemic is NOT fucking deadly and dangerous, and insist that everyone show up at polling places, knowing that only their most rabid supporters will show up.)
Post by: Iduno on April 07, 2020, 04:42:03 pm
I think part of the problem in Wisconsin is they had to draft the state national guard to cover the shortfall in polling workers, ‘cause covid-19.
Republicans are the problem here, saying there’s no reason to postpone or call off the election or give everyone an absentee ballot.
True. The Governor did try, at least.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 07, 2020, 04:44:50 pm
For the record, a small pilot study of the technique in Italy (60 donors) showed a prevalence of 70%... the big question is how representative that is of the general population.
In spain they're going to screen random families instead
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 07, 2020, 04:47:29 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 07, 2020, 04:50:07 pm
Post by: hector13 on April 07, 2020, 05:17:08 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 07, 2020, 05:24:30 pm
Me wife is getting tested tonight, she's showing possible preliminary symptoms. Doc said go get a test.
Dang. Hope everything works out okay.
Post by: Frumple on April 07, 2020, 07:36:59 pm
I'm kinda' thinking Lafayette's going to be the last one to find it, though. They're currently testing at like twice the rate of Liberty with tests actually pending (unlike Liberty), but I figure reality's feeling perverse so Liberty'll find one first.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 07, 2020, 07:44:59 pm
I think his wife works healthcare of some description, so she’s muy importante.
Me wife is getting tested tonight, she's showing possible preliminary symptoms. Doc said go get a test.
Dang. Hope everything works out okay.
Thanks! Also yes, she's a nurse whose facility has recently become infected. She works with people who are very at-risk to begin with, unfortunately.
She's one of the only nurses of her tier there able to work the overnight. The management there botched hiring hard before the virus, and now it's causing repercussions.
The good news: Her symptoms are not Covid. They are apparently pinkeye. We have never been relieved to have pinkeye before.
The bad news: They still need to test her for Covid. This was rescheduled till Thursday due to how bogged down they are.
Post by: nenjin on April 07, 2020, 07:49:33 pm
Post by: Starver on April 07, 2020, 10:55:16 pm
The US is going to screen donated blood for the presence of anticovid antibodies, hoping to extrapolate the prevalence from this.No plans for this in the UK from what I checked earlier (https://www.blood.co.uk/news-and-campaigns/news-and-statements/coronavirus-covid-19-updates/). They're certain that COVID itself does not transmit in blood (is what that page currently says), and they have no mention of the usage - described elsewhere - of recovered persons' bloods being apparently beneficial to (some?) current sufferers. Perhaps effectively an antigen/antibody 'serum' effect.
I originally looked this up a couple of weeks ago as it's about now I would expect my regular "time to make an appointment" SMS. Though as it's neither xmas nor summer, it's probably not going to say "at this time of year our stocks are low" - there may be a depressed number of donors, but a large number of elective surgeries will also be delayed that might have absorbed stocks a bit.
I really would like to donate (something like my 97th or 98th time, IIRC) before I start to detect my hay-fever 'tingle'. In past years I might have just made sure I'm not sneezing on the day (ok, so not quite as blasé, but YGTI) whereas this time round it's always possible the overlapping symptoms could be this (still) rather more unknown issue.
I'm far from likely to be routinely tested (antigen/antibody), assuming I don't obviously succumb along the way, until they decide to scale up to the capacity to mass-screen whole swathes of the population. It'd be nice to get such reassurance/confirmation out of the way but I'm rather resigned to being in the dark for the foreseeable.
(While I'm in here again correcting a trivial typo, let me also wish the continuing best for yor wife, Dun. Aside from being probably-not-COVIDiated, right this moment, it sounds like there's at the very least a potential for even more stress than her job would normally give. Even if there's no later exposure in her immediate future, I can't imagine the work-hours will become any more sane this side of a big change in the workplace.)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 07, 2020, 11:45:18 pm
Quote
No plans for this in the UK from what I checked earlier. They're certain that COVID itself does not transmit in blood (is what that page currently says), and they have no mention of the usage - described elsewhere - of recovered persons' bloods being apparently beneficial to (some?) current sufferers. Perhaps effectively an antigen/antibody 'serum' effectIt's not for transmission (although I would not go as far as saying its impossible to catch covid from blood transfusion.. we simply don't know). It's to try to get an idea on how many people in the general population might have passed it already without knowing. Odds are the number is large (https://www.cebm.net/2020/04/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/)
The convalescent serum thing is done in trials, which I'm sure are taking place in the UK. I'm surprised they're not posting it in the donor's website but, eh who knows what they're thinking. NICE guidelines are absurdly restrictive, it could be that they dont even let them advertise a trial. My erstwhile mentor apparently is bitter because they dont let him try HCQ as compassionate use in his patients.
Post by: Rolan7 on April 08, 2020, 01:42:44 am
Yes that's obviously terrifying, but she's also in good spirits! Much better than she was at the previous independent-living. She didn't recognize us, like she wasn't in person a few months ago, but we got to see her.
And yeah that's a whole different bunch of nightmare fuel. How can we rate her last years? Her memories have been shared, by us coaxing stories out of her before this happened. Living with her, occasionally living out old experiences like an actor in her play.
She was no archivist. I write things down, more than I want to be remembered. I should make a proper archive. It's more important than the meaningless assignment of wealth, and yet I don't know where to start. I wrote so much, in so many places. It's almost as if I hid the logs from myself.
Post by: Egan_BW on April 08, 2020, 02:29:05 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 08, 2020, 04:22:37 am
Let's hope Russia or China don't get any ideas with the NATO's force projection vessels being taken out of the game.
Post by: Starver on April 08, 2020, 04:38:27 am
QuoteNo plans for this in the UK from what I checked earlier. They're certain that COVID itself does not transmit in blood (is what that page currently says), and they have no mention of the usage - described elsewhere - of recovered persons' bloods being apparently beneficial to (some?) current sufferers. Perhaps effectively an antigen/antibody 'serum' effectIt's not for transmission (although I would not go as far as saying its impossible to catch covid from blood transfusion.. we simply don't know). It's to try to get an idea on how many people in the general population might have passed it already without knowing. Odds are the number is large (https://www.cebm.net/2020/04/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/)
The convalescent serum thing is done in trials, which I'm sure are taking place in the UK. I'm surprised they're not posting it in the donor's website but, eh who knows what they're thinking. NICE guidelines are absurdly restrictive, it could be that they dont even let them advertise a trial. My erstwhile mentor apparently is bitter because they dont let him try HCQ as compassionate use in his patients.
Lack of conjunctions on my part. They say nothing about (background, effectively anonymised) infection-frequency testing[1], AND they say there's no point testing for transmission reasons[2], AND have no indicated plans to dabble in serums[3]. Now, there have been historic errors with handling donations[4] but given the amount of smallprint they have (mentioned on website in other areas, but fully included on the on-the-day donor form and various flashcards during the pinprick stage of testing) about what they're testing for along the way I'm surprised if they are currently screening for this and still not saying.
I suspect the primary thing is that many of the tests they might use are still imperfect (false ±ves), as well as any rapidly changing situation that means that even the website could be lagging behind into alarmism/complacency, depending on the current trajectory of any even newer knowledge.
[1] It would also be skewed towards the "seemingly healthy and active blood-donor" demographic, which would need further statistical treatment to lead to the more general background population rate.
[2] SFAIK, it's 'designed' to infect the pharynx so much that if a significant viral-load gets into the blood-stream then you're going to already definitely notice its effects on the nose, throat, lungs and maybe even digestive tract. But IANAPathologist, so ICBW.
[3] Probably a waste to take a 470ml "whole blood" donations just for immunological reasons, even if you divide it by whatever homogonous but still efficacious sub-volume they need to discover is enough, while fractionating this 'new' component apart from the rest of the same-but-for-every-other-prior-pathogen components is going to be hard to get right. The utter ban on "having ever received any blood product since 1980" would probably elliminate (from acceptance) many current/future donors in the aftermath, too, if such a serum is spread it around too freely, so add that as another minor factor to balance in. An ex-vivo transfusion might well work but would be a potentially blunt instrument. Selectively 'printed' RNA segments might be more useful (either for fragment recognition/elimination purposes by the body's defences or direct antisense-blocking if it can be safely smuggled into where the RNA is exposed in time) or constructed viral receptor clusters (to avoid sifting through other blood components and not-yet-fragmented viral bodies) in this day and age with bioprinting capabilities that work on those scales (by size) if maybe not yet the required scale (by volume or moles). In development, therefore, I'd expect the current donation path to not be from J Random Regular Donor but perhaps more specificly targetted recovering ex-patients (with a blood tie to the recipient?) in something more akin to a consentual kidney-donation in a more tightly controlled situation with a quicker turn-around cycle and more responsive monitoring of both individuals going forward. ... All of this footnote being so much simpler a concept to think than it turned out to write, apologies! (And, again, IANAExpert, so forgive me if I'm not using precise enough language for the field.)
[4] e.g. the times when HIV infections from theraputic donations were rife amongst harmophiliacs/etc. albeit that was primarily blood fractions imported from the US system.
[5] It led to a blanket-ban on donation from any even-once-practiced UK male bi/homosexual or (aware) female intimate-partner of one. It also can be seen in the UK wishing to avoid donors with travels to the US due to West Nile Virus (and Chik V, Dengue and Zika in some parts) while US-based blood donations are(/were?) heavy on screening out UK-visiting blood because of BSE/CJD threats.
Post by: Iduno on April 08, 2020, 07:20:07 am
QuoteNo plans for this in the UK from what I checked earlier. They're certain that COVID itself does not transmit in blood (is what that page currently says), and they have no mention of the usage - described elsewhere - of recovered persons' bloods being apparently beneficial to (some?) current sufferers. Perhaps effectively an antigen/antibody 'serum' effectIt's not for transmission (although I would not go as far as saying its impossible to catch covid from blood transfusion.. we simply don't know). It's to try to get an idea on how many people in the general population might have passed it already without knowing. Odds are the number is large (https://www.cebm.net/2020/04/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/)
The convalescent serum thing is done in trials, which I'm sure are taking place in the UK. I'm surprised they're not posting it in the donor's website but, eh who knows what they're thinking. NICE guidelines are absurdly restrictive, it could be that they dont even let them advertise a trial. My erstwhile mentor apparently is bitter because they dont let him try HCQ as compassionate use in his patients.
Do be careful with the stuff, though. It's not just idiots in the US self-medicating that are dying from it.
https://www.nicematin.com/sante/coronavirus-nous-avons-deja-du-interrompre-le-traitement-de-hydroxychloroquine-azithromycine-au-chu-de-nice-489118#Echobox=1586243253 (https://www.nicematin.com/sante/coronavirus-nous-avons-deja-du-interrompre-le-traitement-de-hydroxychloroquine-azithromycine-au-chu-de-nice-489118#Echobox=1586243253)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 08, 2020, 07:42:54 am
I'm not on active duty at the moment*, thankfully so not much of a concern for me. But... everything can have side effects. Its a matter of knowing them and monitoring for that.QuoteNo plans for this in the UK from what I checked earlier. They're certain that COVID itself does not transmit in blood (is what that page currently says), and they have no mention of the usage - described elsewhere - of recovered persons' bloods being apparently beneficial to (some?) current sufferers. Perhaps effectively an antigen/antibody 'serum' effectIt's not for transmission (although I would not go as far as saying its impossible to catch covid from blood transfusion.. we simply don't know). It's to try to get an idea on how many people in the general population might have passed it already without knowing. Odds are the number is large (https://www.cebm.net/2020/04/covid-19-what-proportion-are-asymptomatic/)
The convalescent serum thing is done in trials, which I'm sure are taking place in the UK. I'm surprised they're not posting it in the donor's website but, eh who knows what they're thinking. NICE guidelines are absurdly restrictive, it could be that they dont even let them advertise a trial. My erstwhile mentor apparently is bitter because they dont let him try HCQ as compassionate use in his patients.
Do be careful with the stuff, though. It's not just idiots in the US self-medicating that are dying from it.
https://www.nicematin.com/sante/coronavirus-nous-avons-deja-du-interrompre-le-traitement-de-hydroxychloroquine-azithromycine-au-chu-de-nice-489118#Echobox=1586243253 (https://www.nicematin.com/sante/coronavirus-nous-avons-deja-du-interrompre-le-traitement-de-hydroxychloroquine-azithromycine-au-chu-de-nice-489118#Echobox=1586243253)
IIRC the problems in that hospital were more related to the combination (which if HCQ is uncertain, the combination is downright shaky) than the single agent. 🤷🏻♂️. Tbh I've seldom had to deal with that crap but it wasn't terribly toxic....
* I was supposed to head back to Ireland for work when all this happened. I hope the offer is still good and I can fly sometime this year ☹
Also something interesting: for all the talk about all countries needing lots of doctors... they really dont. Most specialities are having LESS activity if anything. What they do need are three things: ICU specialists, (which are in short supply), people able to run a general medicine ward (any medical specialist will do in a pinch) and, specially, lots of minions (think: Interns and SHOs or equivalents)and to triage and send home the vast majority of mild covid cases in ED and assist with grudge work in the wards. The rest? Unless someone falls not so much. And I'm happy for that given the ludicrous shortages of PPE
Post by: scriver on April 08, 2020, 02:14:10 pm
Of course, I blame the Stockholmians. We should've blocked the city out when we had the chance! ;)
Post by: martinuzz on April 08, 2020, 03:11:58 pm
Too early to celebrate, but combined with declining death numbers over the past week, it does look like we are past the peak.
Post by: Iduno on April 08, 2020, 04:57:41 pm
Stockholm (as opposed to the generally much less infected rest of the country) is believed to have hit it's peak now (as long as current safety precautions stay in place of course, but we're starting to see a raise in cases in the rest (non-big city) of the country.
Of course, I blame the Stockholmians. We should've blocked the city out when we had the chance! ;)
You had some sort of syndrome preventing you from doing it, though?
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 08, 2020, 05:00:18 pm
Finally, a reference I understand without it having to be explained here, it’s weird the things that can happen, the trucks minds can play on others, and sometimes themselvesStockholm (as opposed to the generally much less infected rest of the country) is believed to have hit it's peak now (as long as current safety precautions stay in place of course, but we're starting to see a raise in cases in the rest (non-big city) of the country.
Of course, I blame the Stockholmians. We should've blocked the city out when we had the chance! ;)
You had some sort of syndrome preventing you from doing it, though?
Post by: Starver on April 08, 2020, 05:08:00 pm
Of course, I blame the Stockholmians. We should've blocked the city out when we had the chance! ;)I would suggest you be more charitable. A big free music festival cum fundraiser event surrounding the city like Woodstock mixed with Live-Aid.
Post by: Frumple on April 08, 2020, 07:40:11 pm
I was wrong, Lafayette's track of ~actually fucking testing~ found theirs first. There is now exactly one county in Florida without a confirmed covid case. Liberty, the least populous county in the state. We are now at 66/67 (98.5%) for officially infected florida counties.
Find out tomorrow if we've hit the big officially 100% county-level infection yet!
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 08, 2020, 07:42:55 pm
Post by: King Zultan on April 09, 2020, 02:47:18 am
A big free music festival cum fundraiser event surrounding the city like Woodstock mixed with Live-Aid.That sounds like a fun event for the whole family.
I was wrong, Lafayette's track of ~actually fucking testing~ found theirs first. There is now exactly one county in Florida without a confirmed covid case. Liberty, the least populous county in the state. We are now at 66/67 (98.5%) for officially infected florida counties.Its like a giant game of blackout bingo.
Find out tomorrow if we've hit the big officially 100% county-level infection yet!
Post by: mko on April 09, 2020, 02:58:41 am
A big free music festival cum fundraiser event surrounding the city like Woodstock mixed with Live-Aid.That sounds like a fun event for the whole family.
Quote
Used in indicating a thing with two roles, functions, or natures, or a thing that has changed from one to another.https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cum#Etymology_1
He built a bus-cum-greenhouse that made a bold statement, but the plants in it didn't live very long.
Post by: Frumple on April 09, 2020, 03:15:19 am
Now whether that's being distorted by reporting or just how colossally fucking poorly the US has responded to the pandemic or something, I'unno. But it's apparently a thing!
Post by: misko27 on April 09, 2020, 03:25:27 am
As someone in New York, a mild urge to chastise is beaten out by an overwhelming desire to point out how much this makes a mockery of our (read: global) attempts to keep a grip on this. We never had this under control. Half-measures instituted long after it was too late to stop it, this virus was perfectly suited to exploit our weaknesses, our global hubris that it wouldn't effect us. China underestimated it, Europe underestimated it, the US underestimated it, Latin America underestimated it, the Middle East has underestimated it (150 Saudi Royals are infected!)... its "not our problem" up until it is, and by then it's too late.
Also 4 am philosophy apparently. Guess I'm stir crazy or something.
Post by: Starver on April 09, 2020, 03:42:58 am
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cum#Etymology_1(And, for anyone seriously confused about my usage*, check the Usage Notes to
Ety2 as well.)
* - Probably no-one. When I wrote it I only anticipated gutter minds deliberately misteading it. I toyed with the hyphenated conjugation form, to make it clearer, but decided it didn't work properly with the unhyphenated "music festival" on one side. Besides, it still wouldn't have stopped depraved people pushing in-u-end-o.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 09, 2020, 04:21:54 am
Two studies (geneticists) have independently arrived at the conclusion that the virus in New York spread for several weeks before the first confirmed cases, and overwhelmingly came from Europe, before the shutdowns there started.A lot of people are talking about this. There were anecdottal reports of people who had strange flus and fevers back in January or even earlier and they tested positive for covid antibodies afterwards.
As someone in New York, a mild urge to chastise is beaten out by an overwhelming desire to point out how much this makes a mockery of our (read: global) attempts to keep a grip on this. We never had this under control. Half-measures instituted long after it was too late to stop it, this virus was perfectly suited to exploit our weaknesses, our global hubris that it wouldn't effect us. China underestimated it, Europe underestimated it, the US underestimated it, Latin America underestimated it, the Middle East has underestimated it (150 Saudi Royals are infected!)... its "not our problem" up until it is, and by then it's too late.
Also 4 am philosophy apparently. Guess I'm stir crazy or something.
In fact there are a lot of reports of odd respiratory illnesses in Europe back in december. In Italy they're investigating old swabs from November onwards, testing for covid because of this.
I can tell you that in my own family my mother had a strong pneumonia that kept her in hospital around New Year's Eve. High fever, exahustion, dry cough.... all cultures and swabs negative. Improved after a week. In hindsight highly suspicious
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 09, 2020, 04:53:58 am
I suppose it's possible, but I'm still not going outside.
Post by: martinuzz on April 09, 2020, 06:05:42 am
Where the past few days reassuring news like 'not much to worry about', 'he is just getting some tests', and 'he gets extra oxygen but is not on respiration' was prevalent, the new status quo is 'he is now stable, seems to be out of the woods, he can sit up in bed again and speak to the nurses but he is still in the ICU', 'he will probably survive', and 'how long it will take for him to recover is not known, it is not expected that he will be able to resume working until at least the end of the month'.
He is not allowed any visitors, no government officials, not even his fiancee.
Meanwhile, nearly half of the UK government are ill, 4 ministers and a bunch of advisors are showing corona-like symptoms.
Post by: McTraveller on April 09, 2020, 06:56:55 am
So R0 changing is not surprising - it depends not just on the characteristics of the infectious agent but also a characteristic of the population in which it acts.
Post by: Starver on April 09, 2020, 07:21:37 am
And, like Whack-A-Mole, if you bash down one such hotspot a seemingly random different one will poke its head up soon after.
(Do WAMs ever have different points for striking/penalty for reaction time, though? Our situation does. Hence the changing consequences, plus if we sit idle then even more moles stick up needing whacking.)
Post by: Inarius on April 09, 2020, 07:44:13 am
Post by: Iduno on April 09, 2020, 08:44:10 am
A big free music festival cum fundraiser event surrounding the city like Woodstock mixed with Live-Aid.That sounds like a fun event for the whole family.
Of course. Where do you think families come from?
Oh, neat. CDC is apparently saying the virus might have a base-line R0 of around... 6. 5.7 or something. Or in other words it might be two to three times more infectious than previously thought, if nothing mitigates the spread.
Now whether that's being distorted by reporting or just how colossally fucking poorly the US has responded to the pandemic or something, I'unno. But it's apparently a thing!
A semi-recent set of numbers I heard was something like 300k cases, 15k dead, and 100k recovered. Obviously 100+15 doesn't equal 300, because there are still people who have it, but a bit over 5% die from it (5% have currently died, and half of the people are still fighting between life and death). That's not taking into consideration people whose lungs won't ever properly recover.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/cum#Etymology_1(And, for anyone seriously confused about my usage*, check the Usage Notes to
Ety2 as well.)
* - Probably no-one. When I wrote it I only anticipated gutter minds deliberately misteading it. I toyed with the hyphenated conjugation form, to make it clearer, but decided it didn't work properly with the unhyphenated "music festival" on one side. Besides, it still wouldn't have stopped depraved people pushing in-u-end-o.
I'm familiar with Latin, but we also need a laugh. Although "pushing in-u-end-o" isn't helping your case.
As someone in New York, a mild urge to chastise is beaten out by an overwhelming desire to point out how much this makes a mockery of our (read: global) attempts to keep a grip on this. We never had this under control. Half-measures instituted long after it was too late to stop it, this virus was perfectly suited to exploit our weaknesses, our global hubris that it wouldn't effect us. China underestimated it, Europe underestimated it, the US underestimated it, Latin America underestimated it, the Middle East has underestimated it (150 Saudi Royals are infected!)... its "not our problem" up until it is, and by then it's too late.
It's partly underestimation, and partly intentional. Remember that, in the US anyway, congress had begun preparing themselves back in January by selling off stocks and stockpiling. Several governments have said that people are just going to die, and it's better to let more people die than let this affect the economy (because large death tolls are good for the economy?). In many places, we're being told that we don't matter, because we aren't the ruling class.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 09, 2020, 09:04:13 am
In many places, we're being told that we don't matter, because we aren't the ruling class.“Some of you may die, but that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make!”
Post by: andrea on April 09, 2020, 09:11:52 am
Post by: Teneb on April 09, 2020, 09:16:49 am
"Royston! Rooooyston! The poor are getting uppity again! Fetch me the lobbyists!"In many places, we're being told that we don't matter, because we aren't the ruling class.“Some of you may die, but that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make!”
Post by: nenjin on April 09, 2020, 10:44:15 am
But yeah, when I finally went and got tested for Influenza, they said what I had wasn't the flu. If it wouldn't be a huge inconvenience right now, I'd love to get tested for Corona antibodies to know for sure.
So maybe it was too little, too late for most governments. That still doesn't excuse the attitude that it was "no big deal" by guys like Trump and Boris Johnson.
Post by: Frumple on April 09, 2020, 01:06:08 pm
Lets be fair however: Boris Johnson at least is sacrificing in first person as well.I mean, he's not dead yet. Not unemployed, not facing potential homelessness, not... y'know, actually sacrificing something. Just suffering a bit so far, which I guess is more than some of the folks that have consigned thousands to the grave with their horseshit.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 09, 2020, 01:26:13 pm
Number 1, baybee
Post by: IcyTea31 on April 09, 2020, 02:29:49 pm
Post by: McTraveller on April 09, 2020, 03:04:47 pm
Our stay at home order just got extended from April 13 to April 30 which is good (if not exhausting*). There is starting to be some talk about what the "return to work" process is going to look like; nothing formal but there is talk of phased return, requiring masks at work, etc. I'm pleased the state leaders are at least thinking about it before people look at the numbers and go "oh we're all good now!"
*The 2019-2020 school year was already cancelled entirely though, except for remote-learning.
Post by: martinuzz on April 09, 2020, 05:28:44 pm
The Pentagon warns that more large outbreaks are bound to happen on US Navy vessels, and urges that plans need to be made on how to deal with these situations and prepare for them.
Meanwhile, the French ministry of defense reports that 40 out of 1700 crew of the Charles de Gaulle show symptoms of corona. The carrier's training mission has been aborted and it has returned to Toulon.
Post by: Jimmy on April 09, 2020, 06:53:55 pm
Probably best to wait until the target country declares itself COVID-19 free and reopens their internal transport, though.
Post by: delphonso on April 09, 2020, 08:57:38 pm
Surprisingly easy to get in - didn't encounter any codes to scan, checkpoints, or tracking. Seems this has lightened up on the highways at least. I rode in with a private driver - as public transit doesn't connect to Guangzhou. I expect it would have been much more difficult to travel had I used public transit.
In the city itself, every single person was wearing a mask. Maybe saw two people without one. A couple people had their masks down for smoking cigarettes, though - but at least that's still filtered.
I noticed the air was definitely clearer than the last time I was in Guangzhou. That was a couple years ago though, and it rained a lot recently, so that could be 100% confirmation bias.
Hotels were incredibly strict. My reservation was cancelled upon me arriving (despite knowing I was a foreigner before I arrived in the city...) and a few other hotels shuffled me away without letting me talk. Apparently there are stricter guidelines about which hotels can accept foreigners - I was given a list of 3 in the district (all 3km from where I was) and all three were full or refused service for me. Found one that wasn't on the list that would let me in - took about 30 minutes of paperwork when I arrived. Basically just confirming I hadn't travelled abroad, hadn't been to Wuhan, and didn't have any symptoms. Inconvenient, but not impossible by any means. Had I arrived in the city very late, it might have been an issue. This isn't entirely new - some hotels don't have a license to register foreigners, so they can't even accept them. I've run into that a few times while travelling - mostly in touristy places popular with Chinese but not popular with foreigners - but never in a big city.
I talked with a guy from Shenzhen for a bit - it took him two hours to find parking and also had to fill out similar forms to what I had to - so a lot of these precautions are also applied to Chinese people. Fun note: his friends had also assumed that the US calling its citizens back was going to be the start of the great Sino-American war. Must be a common WeChat conspiracy theory.
The only real issue I had was getting out of Guangzhou. Again, looking for a hired driver (similar to Uber, I guess) I was refused service a few times because "the other passengers wouldn't be comfortable with that." One dickhead went so far as to say that even a driver from Wuhan wouldn't take a foreigner in his car. To prove him wrong, the next driver I contacted picked me up and just double checked that I'd been here a while. He told the other passengers that we picked up that it wasn't an issue and was a real nice dude.
Things honestly seem to be getting back to normal - shops were mostly open, but some with some different policies (small convenience shops just had their staff sitting by the door, you tell them what you want and they'd fetch it for you.) A lot of gyms had shut down, but there were also two gyms on every block, so that could be unrelated. The city was pretty alive still - joggers in the park, business people shuffling around, and cafes pumping out the smell of coffee. Light at the end of the tunnel, maybe, if there aren't any huge outbreaks, we should be back to normal in a month, I'd think. Wuhan has lifted its quarantine, and I think the Wuhanese are probably facing much more discrimination than foreigners are at this point.
Post by: nenjin on April 09, 2020, 09:08:58 pm
Post by: coalboat on April 09, 2020, 09:22:05 pm
joggers in the park
Some joggers have been jogging all the time wearing mask... Admirable. I had been jogging regularly but never jogged again after January.
Post by: Trekkin on April 09, 2020, 09:43:52 pm
In a few weeks/months, you might hear something about a compound that can possibly neutralize the virus, whether or not it's a therapeutic or just some kind of super-disinfectant. That compound probably will not be available to you for free as soon as you hear about it. It will probably be deployed according to some scheme with which you disagree ideologically to some degree, quite possibly according to guidelines that don't seem sensible to you -- and which may seem to fit a conspiratorial motive.
I'd just like you to keep in mind, when you're looking for someone to hate for that, that not everyone involved in trying to cure this has the ability to decide when and where it gets cured. This is almost certainly going to be a collaborative effort, which generally means the lawyers dictate when and where and how and with whom the actual scientists can do science -- and because the production chains are so elaborate, even once a formula exists, there's no way anyone involved on the science end can smuggle it out and post it online and somehow get it in production any faster or delay it to hurt Trump's reelection or make it kill the people you hate or whatever else you want. To the degree any of that is even possible, it's in the hands of the manufacturers.
I realize that this will, in many cases, fall on deaf ears, or at least ones so deranged that ideologically inconvenient information is simply dismissed outright. For the rest of you, though, it would be nice if you bore in mind that the scientists behind the efforts to cure this thing have no power to decide when and where it's deployed, and maybe didn't rant about how my friends and colleagues deserve to die. Most of them are overstressed as it is, and they all genuinely want to help everyone they can.
Post by: delphonso on April 09, 2020, 09:46:16 pm
Makes you think though.....can you imagine if on average US businesses had rules about foreigners on the books? We have laws going the exact opposite direction.
As far as I understand it, it isn't directed at foreigners. There are illegal hotels here which will take anyone including people without Chinese IDs - the way it was explained to me, these are mostly criminals dodging tracking or husbands cheating on their wives with prostitutes, but honestly I have no idea. IDs are required at all legal hotels, but since foreigners don't have IDs, special provisions were made and it's just a process of registering your business as being able to cater to passports and not just ID cards. Tourist locations for Chinese see so few foreigners that they just never bother. It's a bit like credit cards in the US - if you don't have one, hotels and rental cars are impossible.
The quarantine provisions are probably to do with responsibility if infection spreads. I reckon those hotels for foreigners are also for anyone who has been in Hubei recently, and anyone with a Hubei accent is probably getting much more of a run-around. On second thought, it must be for "high-risk" individuals (currently any foreigner and anyone from Hubei) because the hotel list was in Chinese.
Some joggers have been jogging all the time wearing mask... Admirable. I had been jogging regularly but never jogged again after January.
Sad to say I've put on a couple kilos during all this - lack of exercise being the culprit...
Post by: coalboat on April 09, 2020, 10:15:36 pm
As far as I understand it, it isn't directed at foreigners.
Indeed. Hubeiese and especially Wuhanese have been denied service around the country since February.
Post by: nenjin on April 09, 2020, 11:15:21 pm
Hey, folks. Got a request for you.
In a few weeks/months, you might hear something about a compound that can possibly neutralize the virus, whether or not it's a therapeutic or just some kind of super-disinfectant. That compound probably will not be available to you for free as soon as you hear about it. It will probably be deployed according to some scheme with which you disagree ideologically to some degree, quite possibly according to guidelines that don't seem sensible to you -- and which may seem to fit a conspiratorial motive.
I'd just like you to keep in mind, when you're looking for someone to hate for that, that not everyone involved in trying to cure this has the ability to decide when and where it gets cured. This is almost certainly going to be a collaborative effort, which generally means the lawyers dictate when and where and how and with whom the actual scientists can do science -- and because the production chains are so elaborate, even once a formula exists, there's no way anyone involved on the science end can smuggle it out and post it online and somehow get it in production any faster or delay it to hurt Trump's reelection or make it kill the people you hate or whatever else you want. To the degree any of that is even possible, it's in the hands of the manufacturers.
I realize that this will, in many cases, fall on deaf ears, or at least ones so deranged that ideologically inconvenient information is simply dismissed outright. For the rest of you, though, it would be nice if you bore in mind that the scientists behind the efforts to cure this thing have no power to decide when and where it's deployed, and maybe didn't rant about how my friends and colleagues deserve to die. Most of them are overstressed as it is, and they all genuinely want to help everyone they can.
I assume you're obliquely referencing hydroxychloroquine?
Post by: wierd on April 09, 2020, 11:28:27 pm
However, due to the way things work, (where money talks, and distribution systems are what they are), situations where it looks like the 1% are letting everyone else die, etc-- are unavoidable. Which is what he is getting at.
Trekkin is asking you very politely to not go on a murderous rampage when/if that happens.
Post by: Egan_BW on April 09, 2020, 11:31:48 pm
Post by: Trekkin on April 09, 2020, 11:32:32 pm
Trekkin is asking you very politely to not go on a murderous rampage when/if that happens.Technically, I'm asking you all to exclude whoever's reported as the discoverer of the vaccine (EDIT: or entry inhibitor) from any murderous rampages you might decide to go on.
Post by: Max™ on April 09, 2020, 11:58:58 pm
One for a fucking lethal and ongoing pandemic? I just hope the crowd has enough control to take their time when they find them.
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 12:00:04 am
A polio/smallpox effort of mass eradication is possible (though given current problems with polio-doctors being attacked, already seen extended to corona-screening ones...) but we don't know enough about reversion to susceptibility with either natural recovery or after any such innoculation/vaccination.
We need to know who has(/had) it, without concentrating even on those with symptoms or even full ICU-need and be able to observe if the virus appears in someone new (find the latest reservoir they were infected from) and discover if the immune system ever has a chance it "forgets" it afterwards. With flexibility to deal with the few mutations we currently expect, if only to highlight when it decides to H1N1->H1N2 (or at least the equivalent).
(I know we also need to protect the vulnerable but, once they are proven susceptible by being in a bad way, it might not be the right time to give them a prophylactic injection on top of therapeutic care. Less blanketed isolation also improves the general QOL of the population, including those who would be vulnerable, and so I consider more knowledge a vital step on the way to emasculating the threat entirely.)
Post by: Trekkin on April 10, 2020, 12:01:04 am
I'd hope that most people unsatisfied with things like that understand that it's just a symptom of the system being sick and not a conspiracy among the people who are actually trying to help. But maybe I'm too optimistic.
It only takes one, though. Case in point:
Yeah, if some cunt like Shkreli tries to profit off a vaccine for anything, even if he somehow invented a vaccine for the illness he himself is a superspreader for: douchebaggeritis, pass me a pitchfork once I get this torch lit.
One for a fucking lethal and ongoing pandemic? I just hope the crowd has enough control to take their time when they find them.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 10, 2020, 12:05:09 am
Regardless, if a COVID vaccine is found they'll absolutely do the top 15% of the population and then squeeze the rest long past the emergence of new strains.
Post by: Egan_BW on April 10, 2020, 12:37:48 am
It only takes one, though. Case in point:An angry mob of one is really more of an enraged loon.
Post by: wierd on April 10, 2020, 01:26:03 am
It can galvanize, the way "AntiVaxxing!!" did.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 03:40:38 am
Having any of these candidates rushed to the clinic in 6 months would be unprecedently fast in itself, and it'd require cutting a lot of corners and having the vaccine work unusually well...
Post by: wierd on April 10, 2020, 03:43:40 am
We had a conversation at work that led to the topic of sanitary napkins. Apparently, there are reusable ones that are super cheap, and look a surprising amount like the cloth face masks going around.
They contain several layers of microfiber cloth, so the idea of using them as facemasks has us laughing hysterically, especially since they are 1) cheap, and 2) in stock from online vendors.
Spoiler: Image inside (click to show/hide)
In other happy news-- our BVM has been found! I am tots gonna grab those STLs and order some parts!
Post by: Reelya on April 10, 2020, 03:46:24 am
EDIT: probably don't spread the idea around. If that got around at the moment there might be run on people getting them to modify them into facemasks, and then we'd all have a shortage of female sanitary products to cope with as well. Not pleasant for anyone.
Post by: wierd on April 10, 2020, 03:55:28 am
For me it was just a hilarious idea, as a total joke.
The real thing I am happy about is finding that Bag Valve Mask. (BVM). It's the thing that can be refitted into a poor man's ventilator. We still have 0 cases of covid in our facility-- AND I own a 3d printer, and have the requisite skillset to build the DIY kit. I am gonna order some parts, and grab the STL files. This has me super excited, I really can't lie on that. (Not that I *WANT* to use it, but because I want at least some kind of padding under our asses for when the mexican beer virus shows up.)
Post by: martinuzz on April 10, 2020, 05:50:18 am
Of those that don't quit their job, 14% have called in sick.
I really wish people would stop wearing facemasks in public and donate them to healthcare institutions.
Post by: Trekkin on April 10, 2020, 06:57:25 am
It only takes one, though. Case in point:An angry mob of one is really more of an enraged loon.
Yes, and I've met a few in my time. Junkies, mostly, but also a few people who just wanted someone to help their loved ones, found my name somewhere connected with the science behind treating their illness, and acted in a way they understandably thought could help. They weren't stupid or insane, just under too much stress to understand the intricacies of modern drug development. The Dunning-Kruger effect and desperation are a dangerous combination.
Plus which, things are especially complicated right now, and that complexity can easily breed misunderstanding. For example, it's conceivable that Max, per his post, could want a mob to torture to death anyone who's received COVID-19 grant money or venture capital and subsequently succeeded in developing something, on the logic that they've somehow profited off the pandemic. Sure, that's nonsensical, but anger has a way of making violent nonsense feel comforting, and a lot of people will be very angry in the near future -- and one motivated loon with a big rock can still do a lot of damage in the wrong place.
Post by: Frumple on April 10, 2020, 07:03:38 am
In our healthcare institutions (youth care, elderly care, psych wards), staff are resigning from their jobs for lack of protective materials.Eh, the requests I've seen have been less that, and more "keep the good shit for the hospitals". People being encouraged to wear masks, but like homemade ones and crap. Don't go without, but leave the high end stuff to folks on the front lines. The problem isn't really lack of facemasks for medical folks -- any old bugger can rip up an old towel or blanket or summat and wrap it around their head -- it's lack of the N95 tier stuff for them.
Of those that don't quit their job, 14% have called in sick.
I really wish people would stop wearing facemasks in public and donate them to healthcare institutions.
Or in other words, don't get antsy about joe blow wearing any old face covering. We want that, and want that en masse. Get pissed if you see one walking around with a N95 respirator or summat (well, assuming they're actually joe blow and not someone working with high risk populations).
it's conceivable that Max, per his post, could want a mob to torture to death anyone who's received COVID-19 grant money or venture capital and subsequently succeeded in developing something, on the logic that they've somehow profited off the pandemic. Sure, that's nonsensical, but anger has a way of making violent nonsense feel comforting, and a lot of people will be very angry in the near future -- and one motivated loon with a big rock can still do a lot of damage in the wrong place.Woah, hold up, that's not the logic Max is presenting at all, though. Shkreli tier is not "somehow profited off the pandemic", like, at all. Nor is it just anyone who's received grant money or venture capital. Pharmabro fucker was something fairly specific, and not something that includes researchers or the actual ground level folks in its ire.
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 07:11:42 am
An angry mob of one is really more of an enraged loon.Pratchett: "The IQ of a mob is the IQ of its most stupid member divided by the number of mobsters." And anyone who thinks they alone are a mob starts off low.
(There's also, in Jingo I think something like "...the square root of the number of people in it" regarding a crowd/mob, but I think that quip lacks the intended mathematical gradient. Twitter mobs of 10k+ Followers defiitely can be seen not to be necessarily intelligent.)
Post by: Frumple on April 10, 2020, 07:19:40 am
Usually they don't seem to get pissed much at the people who made the stuff that aren't involved with said pricing, though? I've never noticed that being much of a thing, though the desperation and scale of the current situation might change that.
Post by: mko on April 10, 2020, 07:36:07 am
Seriously though, just don't price gouge the lifesaving medicine to the point it's literally criminal
And ln case of actually working medicine: immediately license it at reasonable terms for all other producers. Profit is perfectly fine and desirable to reward investing in such risky venture (even billions in profit), but "only USA will get it" Trump mode or pricing it at level unobtainable for given country is not.
Not doing this hopefully will result in waiving/amending/ignoring various copyright/patent/trademark laws.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 07:51:28 am
In our healthcare institutions (youth care, elderly care, psych wards), staff are resigning from their jobs for lack of protective materials.People *need* facemasks. Healthcare institutions need FFP3 and proper PPE. A few regular masks (amd we're not talking about anything else)
Of those that don't quit their job, 14% have called in sick.
I really wish people would stop wearing facemasks in public and donate them to healthcare institutions.
Dont blame mask wearers. Mask wearing is sensible. It helps to prevent the disease from spreading, which helps ro lower pressure on the institutions. Plus a few surgical (at best) masks would not make any difference when what is needed are high, regular (remember this shit is supposed to be DISPOSABLE. These masks people keep reusing were single use a few months ago) quantities of FFP3 masks.
Blame our f*ing goverments and institutions who dropped the ball back in February.
And blame decades of neocon politics that resulted in heavy cuts in healthcare. I don't think any country in Europe except Germany (and I think GER went down too) has actually kept a decent ICU capacity.
In fact look at this chart. Many otherwise wealthy countries are heavily short-changed ICU wise. You can probably extrapolate from here on what kind of stuff they decided to cut corners as well.
(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs00134-012-2627-8/MediaObjects/134_2012_2627_Fig1_HTML.gif)
Post by: Iduno on April 10, 2020, 08:49:22 am
Yeah, if some cunt like Shkreli tries to profit off a vaccine for anything, even if he somehow invented a vaccine for the illness he himself is a superspreader for: douchebaggeritis, pass me a pitchfork once I get this torch lit.
Can't wait to start seeing DYI torch instructions and pitchfork-replacements everywhere.
Post by: martinuzz on April 10, 2020, 08:53:09 am
There's already voices in the UN to transfer any patents to them or the WHO.
Post by: TD1 on April 10, 2020, 08:55:01 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 10, 2020, 08:58:53 am
Post by: mko on April 10, 2020, 09:03:18 am
I think the current global situation is too big to let any company that comes first with a vaccine or medicine profit from it.Profit is perfectly fine. Let them profit billions on that. But no price gouging, no limitation in production.
There's already voices in the UN to transfer any patents to them or the WHO.
Just stealing the recipe will make less likely that companies will bother with important research and focus even more on viagra equivalents.
But compulsory purchase (yes, with a massive price - assuming that product is actually effective) should be fine.
Post by: TD1 on April 10, 2020, 09:06:15 am
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 09:31:51 am
If there's a good product freely provided then it's cash in the wallet as well as a feather in the cap. Weak products (capability and/or volume) aren't cash-cows just for being rushed through to offer up as a contribution.
There's a few more stipulations I'd add in (oversight to prevent certain other failure conditions) but I won't bore you with things that doubtless people like the WHO[1] would already consider, and more.
[1] Roger Daltry, in particular might suggest "Giving It All Away" and "Free Me", but as a whole there'd be calls of "Doctor, Doctor" "My Generation", "So Sad About Us" and "The Kids Are Alright".
Post by: Bralbaard on April 10, 2020, 09:35:17 am
:-\
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 09:46:10 am
Post by: wierd on April 10, 2020, 09:50:33 am
If we combine the two with a dangerous dash of association of the groups, you end up with a large portion of the population that will be susceptible to, and will promulgate, such nonsense. This has negative outcomes. Vis-a-vis-- Emergency services being disrupted during a world health emergency.
This is why a quality educational system is important, and why enabling the masses to share bullshit without any oversight is dangerous.
Post by: Iduno on April 10, 2020, 09:53:39 am
Tie the recompense (within reasonable and perhaps asymptotic limits) to both the established relative efficacy and proportion total doses their product (both self-made and effectively relicensed) occupies.
If there's a good product freely provided then it's cash in the wallet as well as a feather in the cap. Weak products (capability and/or volume) aren't cash-cows just for being rushed through to offer up as a contribution.
There's a few more stipulations I'd add in (oversight to prevent certain other failure conditions) but I won't bore you with things that doubtless people like the WHO[1] would already consider, and more.
[1] Roger Daltry, in particular might suggest "Giving It All Away" and "Free Me", but as a whole there'd be calls of "Doctor, Doctor" "My Generation", "So Sad About Us" and "The Kids Are Alright".
Excellent work.
Post by: Trekkin on April 10, 2020, 10:07:10 am
Excellent work.
Dangerously incomplete, though.
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2020, 10:07:35 am
I'll be honest, I'm not wild about having to be inoculated if it comes to that. Especially with a) how fast things are moving and b) some people's profit motivations. Sounds like a recipe for a poorly tested vaccine with unknown side effects rapidly deployed to large populations.
Like, last night, I imagined Trump declaring that they'd pour Hydroxychloroquine directly in to the water supply, because that's just the kind of stupid thing he'd advocate for.
Post by: Iduno on April 10, 2020, 10:12:21 am
Now I suddenly understand how some people feel about Fluoride.
Yeah, English spells a lot of words badly. It can be both correct and terrible.
I'll be honest, I'm not wild about having to be inoculated if it comes to that. Especially with a) how fast things are moving and b) some people's profit motivations. Sounds like a recipe for a poorly tested vaccine with unknown side effects rapidly deployed to large populations.
What, since when have medicines and medical treatments/devices that don't work correctly and/or threaten lives been rushed to market in the name of profit? Also, no fair pointing to the US, it has to be a real country.
Post by: Trekkin on April 10, 2020, 10:16:13 am
Now I suddenly understand how some people feel about Fluoride.
I'll be honest, I'm not wild about having to be inoculated if it comes to that. Especially with a) how fast things are moving and b) some people's profit motivations. Sounds like a recipe for a poorly tested vaccine with unknown side effects rapidly deployed to large populations.
Vaccines are only part of the possible therapeutics and therapeutic-like things, and probably the least useful right now. Entry inhibitors can do a lot to drop titer in people already infected, and effective ex vivo destruction of the virions opens up more chemical possibilities. Frankly it's a lot easier to kill the virus if there isn't a person around it we need to keep alive.
There's just not really a good way to quantify the effectiveness of each relative to the others.
Post by: scriver on April 10, 2020, 10:50:02 am
Now I suddenly understand how some people feel about Fluoride.
I'll be honest, I'm not wild about having to be inoculated if it comes to that. Especially with a) how fast things are moving and b) some people's profit motivations. Sounds like a recipe for a poorly tested vaccine with unknown side effects rapidly deployed to large populations.
Way back when the swine flu or bird flu or whatever was going around they haste-vaccinated a lot of people and a lot of people ended up with... that sleep disorder where you fall asleep whenever.
So I'm not too much looking forward to the prospect of more hastily concocted and pushed-through-the-testing-phase vaccines. I'll probably want my parents to get it though, they're both near risk zone.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 10, 2020, 11:02:03 am
are you referring to Narcalepsy?Now I suddenly understand how some people feel about Fluoride.
I'll be honest, I'm not wild about having to be inoculated if it comes to that. Especially with a) how fast things are moving and b) some people's profit motivations. Sounds like a recipe for a poorly tested vaccine with unknown side effects rapidly deployed to large populations.
Way back when the swine flu or bird flu or whatever was going around they haste-vaccinated a lot of people and a lot of people ended up with... that sleep disorder where you fall asleep whenever.
So I'm not too much looking forward to the prospect of more hastily concocted and pushed-through-the-testing-phase vaccines. I'll probably want my parents to get it though, they're both near risk zone.
Post by: Reelya on April 10, 2020, 11:03:49 am
* ZzzZzz *
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 11:48:41 am
Those people who need to have Core Messages hammered into their heads by rhetoric repetition won't be tuning in anyway, unlike dutiful me. A couple of days ago I thought I was back sat cross-legged in the Story Corner in primary school being read to from Janet And John Don't Go Outside, even, by the most condescending of my teachers in one of the Infants classes.
And, by now, the day's expert-with-the-graphs (which don't display on my radio...) should have been given a Powerpoint Clicker of his/her own. Even by unexpedited mail order, it won't have taken more than a few days for one to arrive.
Post by: mko on April 10, 2020, 11:50:18 am
Way back when the swine flu or bird flu or whatever was going around they haste-vaccinated a lot of people and a lot of people ended up with... that sleep disorder where you fall asleep whenever.
https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/we-may-finally-know-why-flu-vaccine-triggered-narcolepsy/ https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/07/why-pandemic-flu-shot-caused-narcolepsy
Still, "even with the increased risk of narcolepsy, the benefits of the vaccine outweighed the cost".
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2020, 12:52:14 pm
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 12:54:21 pm
I think that's highly debatable. Sometimes you can't fix everything nature throws at you, you just have to bear it, get through it and adapt as a species.Everything has side effects.
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Every medication that you had over your life.
It's all a matter of how you stack the odds really
Post by: Bumber on April 10, 2020, 01:05:45 pm
Now I suddenly understand how some people feel about Fluoride.
Yeah, English spells a lot of words badly. It can be both correct and terrible.
It's Latin, apparently.
Post by: scriver on April 10, 2020, 01:08:10 pm
Spoiler: I encountered a real life anime on tv today (click to show/hide)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 10, 2020, 02:15:53 pm
what is meant by real life anime? I see a person looking forward, I don’t see how that translates to being an animeSpoiler: I encountered a real life anime on tv today (click to show/hide)
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2020, 02:31:42 pm
I think that's highly debatable. Sometimes you can't fix everything nature throws at you, you just have to bear it, get through it and adapt as a species.Everything has side effects.
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Every medication that you had over your life.
It's all a matter of how you stack the odds really
Everything has side effects. But most don't have permanent side effects or side effects like Narcolepsy. As for how I stack the odds, I stack them such that I don't take shit I don't absolutely need. I won't be taking anything in response to Corona until it has been guinea-pigged by a large, large number of people.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 03:09:28 pm
I guess you've never checked the unusual side effects section of the medication you consume, then... :PI think that's highly debatable. Sometimes you can't fix everything nature throws at you, you just have to bear it, get through it and adapt as a species.Everything has side effects.
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Every medication that you had over your life.
It's all a matter of how you stack the odds really
Everything has side effects. But most don't have permanent side effects or side effects like Narcolepsy.
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2020, 03:10:48 pm
I guess you've never checked the unusual side effects section of the medication you consume, then... :PI think that's highly debatable. Sometimes you can't fix everything nature throws at you, you just have to bear it, get through it and adapt as a species.Everything has side effects.
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Every medication that you had over your life.
It's all a matter of how you stack the odds really
Everything has side effects. But most don't have permanent side effects or side effects like Narcolepsy.
You don't have to check side effects of your medicines when you don't take any.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 03:21:43 pm
Ever. In your life. None whatsoever.I guess you've never checked the unusual side effects section of the medication you consume, then... :PI think that's highly debatable. Sometimes you can't fix everything nature throws at you, you just have to bear it, get through it and adapt as a species.Everything has side effects.
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Every medication that you had over your life.
It's all a matter of how you stack the odds really
Everything has side effects. But most don't have permanent side effects or side effects like Narcolepsy.
You don't have to check side effects of your medicines when you don't take any.
Not even for a headache
Post by: Iduno on April 10, 2020, 03:24:17 pm
I guess you've never checked the unusual side effects section of the medication you consume, then... :PI think that's highly debatable. Sometimes you can't fix everything nature throws at you, you just have to bear it, get through it and adapt as a species.Everything has side effects.
If someone tries to give me something to fix one problem but creates another permanent problem, my answer is going to be "fuck no."
Every medication that you had over your life.
It's all a matter of how you stack the odds really
Everything has side effects. But most don't have permanent side effects or side effects like Narcolepsy.
You don't have to check side effects of your medicines when you don't take any.
I'd argue that the side effects of being taken off my PTSD meds are unpleasant.
Post by: andrea on April 10, 2020, 03:24:54 pm
It would be better to give examples such an infection, or a bad flu or something serious enough to actually require medicines.
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2020, 03:43:00 pm
The last medication I took was prednisone for sinus inflammation, because I had no other choice since surgery didn't solve the problem. And I'm well aware of the effects, so I take it literally only when my nose starts bleeding.
Post by: MaximumZero on April 10, 2020, 04:12:35 pm
-snip-Same, but for suicidal ideation and severe depression.
I'd argue that the side effects of being taken off my PTSD meds are unpleasant.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 04:21:38 pm
I don't even take aspirin, by and large. I rarely get headaches bad enough I'm willing to take something for it.Right. So there ARE situarions where you balance risk-benefit and decide to risk taking medication.
The last medication I took was prednisone for sinus inflammation, because I had no other choice since surgery didn't solve the problem. And I'm well aware of the effects, so I take it literally only when my nose starts bleeding.
Post by: x2yzh9 on April 10, 2020, 04:34:30 pm
Post by: mko on April 10, 2020, 06:34:34 pm
1/10 chance of narcolepsy? Nope.
1/1000 Probably no, but person at more risk probably would take it?
1/10 000 000 No problem.
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 06:49:50 pm
Not even for a headacheI'm somewhat with nenjin on this one. I've never had to take painkillers for a headache. Which is not to say I haven't had an ache in my skull (or indeed in other places in my head), but I don't think I've ever felt the need to plink-plink-fizz or take anything in pill form for that. (Migraine sufferers can hate me now. "Migraine" sufferers, too, if they want, but they're apparently already being hated upon by the first lot, for appropriating something they don't truly understand.)
When I had an awkward wisdom tooth out (the second attempt, as the dentist couldn't get it out properly and I had to have a hospital appointment to slice it up a bit and remove the bits) I was told "just take your regular painkiller, when you get home" to cover when the injections wore off.
Cue me, walking into a pharmacist at the station with "I have just had a tooth out, what do you recommend?" written on a pad, given I was still too insensitive of cotton-packed mouth to articulate anything in words. I probably could find that pack at the back of a cupboard, hardly touched and years out of date now, as I didn't need more than one or two (precautionarily) before I decided I could live with it.
Prior to that, it would have been my appendectomy. Dutifully finished off my ABs, but not sure I continued any of the discharge-supplied painkillers for more than a day or two.
Other than what had been given me by medical(/dental) staff, including for childhood broken bones, torn ligaments and other interesting wounds, I'm not at all too sure how much painkiller I've self-administered. I'm fairly sure it's an atypically low quantity, given popular culture references to casual use of aspirin/etc.
Though I did pick up a packet of paracetemol about a month back. I was shopping, saw conspicuously empty shelves for some products in that part of the store but it looked like they had plenty of the kind I picked up and I decided it would be a guilt-free "just in case".
I'm thinking I should have got some hay-fever med, though. I normally avoid it unless it gets really annoying (not sure I used any over the last two or three years) but it seems a good idea to try to not confuse the spring/summer-season condition with the one this thread is about, this year. If I can help it. I can feel the roof-of-mouth tingle coming on, the usual herald.
Post by: Frumple on April 10, 2020, 06:57:40 pm
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2020, 06:58:49 pm
I don't even take aspirin, by and large. I rarely get headaches bad enough I'm willing to take something for it.Right. So there ARE situarions where you balance risk-benefit and decide to risk taking medication.
The last medication I took was prednisone for sinus inflammation, because I had no other choice since surgery didn't solve the problem. And I'm well aware of the effects, so I take it literally only when my nose starts bleeding.
Sure. With well-tested, well-documented, widely used drugs with a well-established set of side effects so I can make a reasonable cost-benefit analysis, and use it to the least degree its effective.
With anything involving Covid though, none of that is going to exist for a while. I didn't take anything produced for SARS, Zika, West Nile, or many of the other infectious diseases that made their way around the world. I'm not going to treat Covid any differently. Unless it's literally mandated by state and federal governments like the Polio vaccine was, and even THEN I'd wait and see for what the side effects actually are. People are so anxious and amped up right now and looking for anything to deal with the pandemic, it seems like a great time for something untested and unproven to get deployed anyways.
Post by: Frumple on April 10, 2020, 07:25:12 pm
Didn't you say you smoke, though, nenj? Whatever the calculus involved is, it's going to tilt pretty significantly towards whatever vaccine or other solution gets produced if you got lungs you've been fucking over with tobacco. Crow plague's been notably fucking people with prior lung conditions, smoking history very much among them :-\
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2020, 07:26:08 pm
(I don't actually use Bluetooth for anything, so it's off. In the past when I have used it I only turned it on when needed for that purpose. Ditto NFC, Wifi, GPS and even MobileData, unless I just neglect to turn them off by accident, though those seem largely irrelevent to this concept.)
The only way I'm likely to be tracked for infection-worthy proximity is probable good old-fashioned cell-tower location inferences (not sure that can pin down close enough) in which case for me the only info I'd get would be when the telecoms company(/ies) tallying up likely suspects then probably texting any that need to be texted. Which is bog-standard Big Brother stuff that I already knew was possible (even if it might not be practical).
Post by: Greiger on April 10, 2020, 07:26:46 pm
Ladies and gents, we have plague bingo! Liberty finally found one of their covid cases, so the official county level infection of florida is now completely 100% total. There is not a single county in the state without confirmed cases of the crow plague.Yay So does that mean all Floridians get a prize? I'm currently still enjoying my 'prize' of a 100% free unpaid vacation at home while fighting with a nonfunctional unemployment website.
Post by: Frumple on April 10, 2020, 07:27:45 pm
Post by: Max™ on April 10, 2020, 08:18:32 pm
No, I want people who deserve a dose of mob justice to get it, I specifically mentioned an example: Shkreli took an opportunity to buy the patent rights for a drug, one that costs pennies to make and sold for $13.50 (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/05/drug-made-famous-by-shkrelis-5000-price-hike-is-still-750-a-pill/) and jacked the price up to $750 because fuck yeah, capitalism!It only takes one, though. Case in point:An angry mob of one is really more of an enraged loon.
Yes, and I've met a few in my time. Junkies, mostly, but also a few people who just wanted someone to help their loved ones, found my name somewhere connected with the science behind treating their illness, and acted in a way they understandably thought could help. They weren't stupid or insane, just under too much stress to understand the intricacies of modern drug development. The Dunning-Kruger effect and desperation are a dangerous combination.
Plus which, things are especially complicated right now, and that complexity can easily breed misunderstanding. For example, it's conceivable that Max, per his post, could want a mob to torture to death anyone who's received COVID-19 grant money or venture capital and subsequently succeeded in developing something, on the logic that they've somehow profited off the pandemic. Sure, that's nonsensical, but anger has a way of making violent nonsense feel comforting, and a lot of people will be very angry in the near future -- and one motivated loon with a big rock can still do a lot of damage in the wrong place.
Shkreli didn't make that drug, he didn't do anything to help distribute it, he didn't do anything to even help the people who developed it, he just noticed big fat profits sitting around unreaped and jumped on it.
I would love for a Salk type to develop a vaccine and push for that shit to remain affordable and accessible, I will not be surprised if a smirking bitchboy douchebag like Shkreli tries to step in and make a few bucks off of it, I mean for fuck's sake, Jared Douchner is already trying to set himself up in a profitable gatekeeper position regarding aid and whatnot without seeming to care that said gate is currently sitting on ~19k known corpses, many of which might have lived if not for his dumbfuck-in-law being so much less than we need.
Post by: feelotraveller on April 10, 2020, 09:17:26 pm
Post by: Trekkin on April 10, 2020, 09:20:17 pm
Yeah, I think trekkin was talking about something different - viz: that drug runners shouldn't be held responsible for the actions of the gangs they belong to.
How on Earth did you get any reference to drug runners or gangs from my post? Or is this some particularly sad attempt at metaphor?
Post by: Rolan7 on April 10, 2020, 09:45:38 pm
Saying that a drug is cheap to manufacture is meaningless if it cost a lot to develop. That's real work with real value, whatever economic system you prefer.
Like:
They'd stil get compensated for their expenses, it'll just be a non-profit product for once, with an added bonus of their company being added to the Hall of Heroes.That's easy enough to demand, but the "reward" is downright condescending. That's not a reward, it's a veiled threat, with all the consequences that entails next time around.
Under the capitalist systems we have there needs to be a bounty for saving the world. That's how things work at the moment. That's far from the worst thing about our system, in fact it's arguably its optimal use case. The true horror is the *normal* price fixing which we've come to accept, at least here in America. We could even see another white knight donation of vaccine for the public good, and the true harm would be how much goodwill that would buy the vampires bleeding us dry day by day.
Their face looks uncanny, somewhat artificial, at least in that still image. They seem to be sucking their cheeks in a bit, which makes the jaw seem to project cartoonishly by comparison. Or it might just be a bony face.what is meant by real life anime? I see a person looking forward, I don’t see how that translates to being an animeSpoiler: I encountered a real life anime on tv today (click to show/hide)
I don't really know, I'm bad at judging faces.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 10, 2020, 09:49:36 pm
Quote
I have to roll my eyes a bit whenever people pick out Shkreli. Yes he perpetuated the horror that is capitalism, but the reason he got famous is for his lack of charisma. He has a punchable smirking face, so people made him a figurehead for bad pharmaceutical execs - except he became a scapegoat instead.
Saying that a drug is cheap to manufacture is meaningless if it cost a lot to develop. That's real work with real value, whatever economic system you prefer.
You picked a very bad example to explain that idea (with which I agree in principle). Shkreli developed nothing, contributed nothing. He's a patent troll.
Post by: Rolan7 on April 10, 2020, 09:59:46 pm
Post by: Zangi on April 10, 2020, 11:15:28 pm
The sad thing is we will have dumbfucks sucking up that gaslight praising Trump and Kushner for saving best murrica.No, I want people who deserve a dose of mob justice to get it, I specifically mentioned an example: Shkreli took an opportunity to buy the patent rights for a drug, one that costs pennies to make and sold for $13.50 (https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/05/drug-made-famous-by-shkrelis-5000-price-hike-is-still-750-a-pill/) and jacked the price up to $750 because fuck yeah, capitalism!It only takes one, though. Case in point:An angry mob of one is really more of an enraged loon.
Yes, and I've met a few in my time. Junkies, mostly, but also a few people who just wanted someone to help their loved ones, found my name somewhere connected with the science behind treating their illness, and acted in a way they understandably thought could help. They weren't stupid or insane, just under too much stress to understand the intricacies of modern drug development. The Dunning-Kruger effect and desperation are a dangerous combination.
Plus which, things are especially complicated right now, and that complexity can easily breed misunderstanding. For example, it's conceivable that Max, per his post, could want a mob to torture to death anyone who's received COVID-19 grant money or venture capital and subsequently succeeded in developing something, on the logic that they've somehow profited off the pandemic. Sure, that's nonsensical, but anger has a way of making violent nonsense feel comforting, and a lot of people will be very angry in the near future -- and one motivated loon with a big rock can still do a lot of damage in the wrong place.
Shkreli didn't make that drug, he didn't do anything to help distribute it, he didn't do anything to even help the people who developed it, he just noticed big fat profits sitting around unreaped and jumped on it.
I would love for a Salk type to develop a vaccine and push for that shit to remain affordable and accessible, I will not be surprised if a smirking bitchboy douchebag like Shkreli tries to step in and make a few bucks off of it, I mean for fuck's sake, Jared Douchner is already trying to set himself up in a profitable gatekeeper position regarding aid and whatnot without seeming to care that said gate is currently sitting on ~19k known corpses, many of which might have lived if not for his dumbfuck-in-law being so much less than we need.
Post by: wierd on April 11, 2020, 01:51:55 am
Naughty naughty naughty.
Lazy engineers
naughty naughty naughty.
ARGH... Seriously... These kids...
Material: Aluminum or stainless steel.
WHICH ONES!? there are like, 20+ kinds of each-- what material condition? Any treatments? No? What, are you making this out of recycled tin cans or what!? Is this 2025, or 3035? Is it 5150 stainless steel? Is it T0, T1, T2, T3.... Seriously!?
Did you guys even consider dissimilar materials induced corrosion when using the chassis as a common ground? Did you research what material your power supply's outer casing is made from, and spec an electronically compatible material for your cabinet? No? Clearly-- you did not!
Production ready my hairy white ass.
I am thinking I will do some of their work for them, and create appropriate 1:1 fully dimensional drawings with all the missing data, after doing a whole fucking lot of guesswork based on standard material data sheets.
Post by: Reelya on April 11, 2020, 02:19:16 am
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/05/drug-made-famous-by-shkrelis-5000-price-hike-is-still-750-a-pill/
Quote
Back in 2015, Shkreli’s former pharmaceutical company, Turing Pharmaceuticals, bought the rights to and dramatically raised the price of Daraprim. It’s an off-patent, decades old drug that treats relatively rare parasitic infections, namely toxoplasmosis, which largely strikes babies and patients with HIV/AIDS. It costs pennies to make and generates little profit. Only a few thousand patients need it each year. And there was no competition at the time Turing bought the rights.
It's still $750 a pill btw, but very recently a generic form was cleared by the FDA
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/29/health/daraprim-generic-version/index.html
Post by: wierd on April 11, 2020, 02:23:39 am
It is both 1) essential for affected populations, and 2) not sufficiently high demand for inexpensive manufacture. That is exactly the kind of combination that a capitalist free market solution is extremely bad at providing, and is the kind of edge case where nationalized healthcare would assure quality of life for the affected populations.
"But MUH FREE MARKETZ!"
They can all go smoke dicks.
Hopefully HIV infected ones, so they can experience the bullshit they are engineering first hand.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 11, 2020, 02:34:59 am
So.. Looking inside the OxyGen open hardware model based definitions for their emergency ventillator product. They are fortunate I was not their instructor in their CAD class.*shrug* allegedly it's in mass production (https://www.autoblog.com/2020/04/07/vw-ag-seat-spain-coronavirus-ventilator-windshield-wiper-motor/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALvuQIzlh_1ibkXuZfWrAXXyEMREqdOCMRAXS0ETo-CUm0UAGlcpna-YUTknYGx0k2bPHcvVhFpga6N8kkIEglyzG3Gij50LWyf1NuZ-9J1ouK0ErYeNwylUh6kK_zNhhFaECP-VwnC2Lwh-YEktuCkdGT7rhEi8ge7Zu5eg6I-R)at the moment.
Naughty naughty naughty.
Lazy engineersdid not supply technical drawings, only model based data. (actually they did, just not GOOD ones.) Model based data does not contain bend radii. Technical data does not contain material requirements for sheet metal (at least not PROPER ones anyway).
naughty naughty naughty.
ARGH... Seriously... These kids...
Material: Aluminum or stainless steel.
WHICH ONES!? there are like, 20+ kinds of each-- what material condition? Any treatments? No? What, are you making this out of recycled tin cans or what!? Is this 2025, or 3035? Is it 5150 stainless steel? Is it T0, T1, T2, T3.... Seriously!?
Did you guys even consider dissimilar materials induced corrosion when using the chassis as a common ground? Did you research what material your power supply's outer casing is made from, and spec an electronically compatible material for your cabinet? No? Clearly-- you did not!
Production ready my hairy white ass.
I am thinking I will do some of their work for them, and create appropriate 1:1 fully dimensional drawings with all the missing data, after doing a whole fucking lot of guesswork based on standard material data sheets.
Although TBH I've had this nagging feeling about this project all along. It was an university-hack for "emergency situations", not a "serious" ventilator project. It jumped from being a 3D hack to making 300 a day in a repurposed car factory...
Now, I think they *probably* are making those. But I have some doubts as to whether they are seeing a lot of use. Remember, Spain has 2400 extra ventilators from private healthcare, plus probably more stuff that can be repurposed as one from the same source. That stockpile hasn't been touched at all.
So... I suspect the OxyGen ventilator project was backed mostly as a PR stunt, because if we were in such a dire need of ventilators, we'd let the ones in the private sector sitting by. They'd get seized, or rented, or whatever.
This is not to say that they aren't being stockpiled just in case (after all, if you want them when you need them, they need to be made beforehand), or that someone is not playing around with those, maybe offering a chance to people who wouldn't make the ICU cut in the much-overloaded Barcelonese hospitals, in a trial setting... just that at present they might be mass-produced, but they certainly are not being (or intended to be) mass used, at least for the time being.
Post by: wierd on April 11, 2020, 03:01:41 am
Material is selected for a wide variety or reasons. Engineering students are trained to pick appropriate materials, and to work with peers in other engineering disciplines. In this case, they should have conversed with their EE classmates, and selected appropriate materials, then specc'ed them appropriately.
The notion of "These are short term use only, so it doesn't matter" is similar to the kind of malpratice that happens with hospice patients. "They are gonna die anyway, so giving them proper treatment is not important." You dont know if they will recover enough on their own to go off hospice, and so such a decision is callous and simply wrong on every professional level. Likewise, the 'Its disposable!' mindset, as justification for laxity in design, is just gross negligence.
This could have been a great opportunity to actually do good design and best practices. But no. They did not.
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2020, 03:02:04 am
Yesterday 46 new cases were reported, of whom 42 came in from foreign countries.
In response, the city government of Guanghzou (port city with 14.5 million inhabitants) has ordered draconic measures against 'foreigners': people who look like africans (read: black people) are no longer allowed into bars and restaurants, and anyone who has been in contact with a black person will face mandatory testing and quarantine.
The US consulate advises afro-americans, and people who have could classify as 'having been in contact with africans' to avoid the city.
EDIT:Meanwhile in the Netherlands, press got word of a humanitarian flight to China that the Dutch government helped organize back in february.
Many millions of face masks, protective clothing and gloves for hospital workers, even respirator machines, and various other medical supplies were bought up from the Netherlands, Germany, and Turkey and sent to Wuhan via Schiphol, after the Chinese government had asked for help.
Our government kept the deal discrete and secret to not embarrass China. The Chinese government didn't want it to be known that they had to ask for help.
The trader hired by the government to procure the goods even asked the government if the products weren't needed when the virus would also affect the Netherlands, but back in february, our western nations still thought they were invulnerable.
Post by: coalboat on April 11, 2020, 03:31:55 am
people who look like africans (read: black people) are no longer allowed into bars and restaurants, and anyone who has been in contact with a black person will face mandatory testing and quarantine.
In February media revealed a policy that grants citizenship to non-Chinese (which already exists for years) and implied that this policy was for giving citizenship to illegal African immigrant in Guangzhou. After that racist speech was deliberately tolerated on Internet. An obvious red herring to draw attention from criticizing government failure. I reported a racist post (on a Chinese site) and it wasn't deleted for days. While any post remotely related to the discussion of government's role in controlling epidemic is closely monitored by either bots or hired censorship workers.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 11, 2020, 03:34:28 am
In China, there is a small increase in infections again, after lockdown measures were slowly being lifted.
Yesterday 46 new cases were reported, of whom 42 came in from foreign countries.
In response, the city government of Guanghzou (port city with 14.5 million inhabitants) has ordered draconic measures against 'foreigners': people who look like africans (read: black people) are no longer allowed into bars and restaurants, and anyone who has been in contact with a black person will face mandatory testing and quarantine.
The US consulate advises afro-americans, and people who have could classify as 'having been in contact with africans' to avoid the city.
EDIT:Meanwhile in the Netherlands, press got word of a humanitarian flight to China that the Dutch government helped organize back in february.
Many millions of face masks, protective clothing and gloves for hospital workers, even respirator machines, and various other medical supplies were bought up from the Netherlands, Germany, and Turkey and sent to Wuhan via Schiphol, after the Chinese government had asked for help.
Our government kept the deal discrete and secret to not embarrass China. The Chinese government didn't want it to be known that they had to ask for help.
The trader hired by the government to procure the goods even asked the government if the products weren't needed when the virus would also affect the Netherlands, but back in february, our western nations still thought they were invulnerable.
That's not quite true. I'm certain the Chinese goverment openly admitted weeks ago they had gotten European help. In fact it was specifically mentioned as the reason for helping Italy. I can't find the exact quote but I'd swear it was Xi Jinping himself.
Edit: some links
https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-china-steps-in-to-help-italy-battle-the-virus/a-52901560
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/20/c_138898996.htm
Quote
according to China's Ambassador to France Lu Shaye.
"At the crucial moment when China waged war against the epidemic, France provided us with precious support and assistance," said Lu. "Now as France and the whole of Europe are facing the serious challenge of the pandemic, China is ready to provide aid as far as possible"
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2020, 03:38:40 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 11, 2020, 03:40:08 am
That was later. Back in february, China was still trying to make it look like they had things under control.You mean like our goverments are doing now? :P
Post by: McTraveller on April 11, 2020, 07:23:02 am
Post by: Frumple on April 11, 2020, 07:37:37 am
All that said, it's also hard work, mostly exposed to the elements, and often enough fairly dangerous for one reason (heavy equipment, material issues, other stuff) or another (idiot drivers), so it's obviously enough not to everyone. Still, something that could both do a lot of good and offer a good bit of relief for people who have lost jobs or whathaveyou? Damn straight it is.
'Course, stateside, we've been waiting for that infrastructure week and billions or trillions of dollars of investment in our decaying roads and whatnot for a good four (plus) years now. It's become something of a running joke :-\
Post by: andrea on April 11, 2020, 07:41:17 am
That said, infrastructure projects would be a great way to help the recovery.
Post by: Iduno on April 11, 2020, 08:23:47 am
Under the capitalist systems we have there needs to be a bounty for saving the world. That's how things work at the moment. That's far from the worst thing about our system, in fact it's arguably its optimal use case. The true horror is the *normal* price fixing which we've come to accept, at least here in America. We could even see another white knight donation of vaccine for the public good, and the true harm would be how much goodwill that would buy the vampires bleeding us dry day by day.
That, and it would most likely be done to test the vaccine that is otherwise being rushed out with no real testing. In their view, it would still be good, because it only killed off people who couldn't afford the real vaccine anyway.
The issue is that they did not follow good design principles in their project, and it shows.
Material is selected for a wide variety or reasons. Engineering students are trained to pick appropriate materials, and to work with peers in other engineering disciplines. In this case, they should have conversed with their EE classmates, and selected appropriate materials, then specc'ed them appropriately.
The notion of "These are short term use only, so it doesn't matter" is similar to the kind of malpratice that happens with hospice patients. "They are gonna die anyway, so giving them proper treatment is not important." You don't know if they will recover enough on their own to go off hospice, and so such a decision is callous and simply wrong on every professional level. Likewise, the 'Its disposable!' mindset, as justification for laxity in design, is just gross negligence.
This could have been a great opportunity to actually do good design and best practices. But no. They did not.
Agreed. I wish our senior engineering design projects required us to combine multiple disciplines, so we got more exposure to different ideas and requirements.
'Course, stateside, we've been waiting for that infrastructure week and billions or trillions of dollars of investment in our decaying roads and whatnot for a good four (plus) years now. It's become something of a running joke :-\
Worse here, where they have actually argued that because certain neighborhoods have less wealth, they don't deserve the same quality services (roads, schools, etc.). I'll let you guess how that "coincidentally" lines up with skin color.
Post by: wierd on April 11, 2020, 09:04:09 am
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
lots of data there.
Post by: Frumple on April 11, 2020, 10:03:10 am
I can see the joke coming, though. "America likes our crow plague like we like our military spending: More than the next twenty countries combined."
Though so far it's only four or five. Give it another month or two.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 11, 2020, 10:49:23 am
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/06/martin-shkreli-coronavirus-prison/
"
“As a successful two-time biopharma entrepreneur, having purchased multiple companies, invented multiple new drug candidates, filed numerous INDs and clinical trial applications, I am one of the few executives experienced in ALL aspects of drug development from molecule creation and hypothesis generation,” Shkreli wrote in a scientific paper posted online this week.
The rest of the paper, co-authored by two of Shkreli’s business partners and another two individuals described as “citizen scientists,” details an effort to identify existing drugs that might have a beneficial effect on Covid-19. Shkreli and colleagues claim to have used software to screen more than 100,000 compounds against a model of the coronavirus, whittling the list down to eight available drugs that could be useful in fighting the pandemic.
"
Lol. So... he found eight EXISTING drugs that could help. Found with software not his own. But he wants to get the furlough time and doubtlessly the profits from making and distributing them. Not his old patent troll behavior at all.
Also lol'd at the paper being co-authored by his business partner and two "citizen scientists." Yes, definitely a world-class scientific paper filled with expert, carefully and methodically obtained scientific information.
Post by: scriver on April 11, 2020, 11:01:37 am
Under the capitalist systems we have there needs to be a bounty for saving the world. That's how things work at the moment. That's far from the worst thing about our system, in fact it's arguably its optimal use case. The true horror is the *normal* price fixing which we've come to accept, at least here in America. We could even see another white knight donation of vaccine for the public good, and the true harm would be how much goodwill that would buy the vampires bleeding us dry day by day.
That, and it would most likely be done to test the vaccine that is otherwise being rushed out with no real testing. In their view, it would still be good, because it only killed off people who couldn't afford the real vaccine anyway.The issue is that they did not follow good design principles in their project, and it shows.
Material is selected for a wide variety or reasons. Engineering students are trained to pick appropriate materials, and to work with peers in other engineering disciplines. In this case, they should have conversed with their EE classmates, and selected appropriate materials, then specc'ed them appropriately.
The notion of "These are short term use only, so it doesn't matter" is similar to the kind of malpratice that happens with hospice patients. "They are gonna die anyway, so giving them proper treatment is not important." You don't know if they will recover enough on their own to go off hospice, and so such a decision is callous and simply wrong on every professional level. Likewise, the 'Its disposable!' mindset, as justification for laxity in design, is just gross negligence.
This could have been a great opportunity to actually do good design and best practices. But no. They did not.
Agreed. I wish our senior engineering design projects required us to combine multiple disciplines, so we got more exposure to different ideas and requirements.'Course, stateside, we've been waiting for that infrastructure week and billions or trillions of dollars of investment in our decaying roads and whatnot for a good four (plus) years now. It's become something of a running joke :-\
Worse here, where they have actually argued that because certain neighborhoods have less wealth, they don't deserve the same quality services (roads, schools, etc.). I'll let you guess how that "coincidentally" lines up with skin color.
Well, I'd they got less money, they got less tax money
If they've got less tax money, they can pay for less services
Moving wealth from the rich districts to the poor districts would be redistribution of wealth
Redistribution of wealth is communism
Communism is bad
You've been logicked
Post by: misko27 on April 11, 2020, 04:00:21 pm
Also, don't forget, this is a slow-motion disaster. There are quite a few countries I am keeping an eye on for outbreaks which may soon explode. Particularly I've been watching Brazil and Russia, which for, similarish reasons have been slow to act, haven't done so on a national level (only local, which isn't enough), and are almost certainly undercounting the numbers (that said note that despite having similar population sizes and similar numbers of infected per capita, Brazil's death toll is 10x Russias despite infected numbers being only 7k apart (20k for Brazil, 13k for Russia). That is not right, so someone's numbers are wrong, and I doubt the correct direction to revise is downwards...). That's the same recipe for disaster we've seen over and over. And there are others which seem to be grappling with an unfolding crisis (Ecuador and Turkey come to mind), and other countries I just straight up worry about, namely India...
Also, Politico arranged a rather interesting map (https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-by-county-health/) cross-referencing the NY times effort to track Coronavirus cases by county, with how vulnerable each county is based on risk factors like age, median income, ICU beds per capita, tendency to be hospitalized over cardiovascular problems. (It doesn't work for New York City or Kansas City, since the New York times doesn't track the infections in individual counties of those two, so it amusingly says "no cases" in manhattan).
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 11, 2020, 04:06:57 pm
Post by: misko27 on April 11, 2020, 04:18:09 pm
As for Russia, Russia has the other factor that it's much colder than the US, which may make it more vulnerable to the virus (unknown whether that has been confirmed?). Also, bear in mind that Russia's population density is 8.6 per Km2, but that's an average, and much of its population is concentrated where density reaches 58, 60 per Km2. Which is still less than Italy or Spain, but a lot more.
Post by: Iduno on April 11, 2020, 08:27:49 pm
Yes it is. But the United States' 32 per km2 and 92 per mile2, compared to Italy's 206 per km2 or 532 per square mile. France has 119 per Km2 (309 people per mi2). Spain has 94 per Km2 (243 people per mi2).
As for Russia, Russia has the other factor that it's much colder than the US, which may make it more vulnerable to the virus (unknown whether that has been confirmed?). Also, bear in mind that Russia's population density is 8.6 per Km2, but that's an average, and much of its population is concentrated where density reaches 58, 60 per Km2. Which is still less than Italy or Spain, but a lot more.
If it's cold enough to be affecting your immune system noticeably, it's probably cold enough to just stay inside.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 11, 2020, 08:47:07 pm
). Also, bear in mind that Russia's population density is 8.6 per Km2, but that's an average, and much of its population is concentrated where density reaches 58, 60 per Km2. Which is still less than Italy or Spain, but a lot more.This is also true of Italy and Spain, and likely many others. In the particular case of Spain the worst outbreaks are in Madrid and Barcelona, which are, not coincidentally, the largest cities (together they have around 25% of the population).
Probably the same thing applies to many other countries. Big outbreaks are happening largely in big metropolitan areas, whereas smaller settlements fare relatively better.
Post by: misko27 on April 12, 2020, 02:15:59 am
And, secondly, Russia (and Brazil!) have rising caseloads and are seriously behind on taking steps to stop it, meaning that, despite being less dense, may soon turn out to be at least as fucked (per capita) as the US, and arguably for similar reasons.
Post by: mko on April 12, 2020, 02:41:10 am
https://soccer.nbcsports.com/2020/03/14/zenit-fans-chant-were-all-going-to-die-during-game-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/
Quote
There is still top-flight soccer being played in Russia, and some of Zenit St. Petersburg supporters were filmed chanting an alarming message on Saturday amid the coronavirus pandemic.
During Zenit’s 7-1 thumping of FC Ural at a jam-packed Grazprom Arena, fans of the Russian giants were collectively chanting “we’re all going to die.” The same supporters group also held up a banner that read: “We are all infected with football and will die for Zenit.”
There are a reported 59 confirmed cases of coronavirus(COVID-19) in Russia
Post by: coalboat on April 12, 2020, 02:42:54 am
Post by: Jopax on April 12, 2020, 05:44:26 am
Especially as Russia was denying reality longer than USA.
https://soccer.nbcsports.com/2020/03/14/zenit-fans-chant-were-all-going-to-die-during-game-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/QuoteThere is still top-flight soccer being played in Russia, and some of Zenit St. Petersburg supporters were filmed chanting an alarming message on Saturday amid the coronavirus pandemic.
During Zenit’s 7-1 thumping of FC Ural at a jam-packed Grazprom Arena, fans of the Russian giants were collectively chanting “we’re all going to die.” The same supporters group also held up a banner that read: “We are all infected with football and will die for Zenit.”
There are a reported 59 confirmed cases of coronavirus(COVID-19) in Russia
To be fair that sort of stuff is fairly normal for football fans of the slavic countries (the english were like that but they kinda grew out of it, we haven't), the only difference right now is that the Russians haven't cancelled their games or closed them off to the public.
Post by: Starver on April 12, 2020, 06:01:02 am
Post by: Craftsdwarf boi on April 12, 2020, 07:16:17 pm
The lack of access to medical resources and sanitation would prove to be devastating.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 12, 2020, 07:26:01 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 12, 2020, 08:00:51 pm
Also, Forbes is exaggerating again. Where am I going to get enough variety of food to be over-eating in a time like this?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: A Thing on April 12, 2020, 08:13:30 pm
I was assuming that was the joke, but who can tell?
Also, Forbes is exaggerating again. Where am I going to get enough variety of food to be over-eating in a time like this?Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I want to hope that that's a satirical article, but it's Forbes, and life is full of disappointment anyway.
Post by: hector13 on April 12, 2020, 09:27:29 pm
Why is this news?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 12, 2020, 09:31:59 pm
What else is there to do in quarantine anyway?
Why is this news?
Well, I bought a telescope..
Post by: Starver on April 12, 2020, 09:37:46 pm
(And how do they find any time to do that, while inbibing, quaffing, toking and tapping?)
Post by: Rolan7 on April 12, 2020, 09:40:22 pm
Imagine India being infected.Gosh my housemates would probably start making pooping-street "jokes" oh wait.
The lack of access to medical resources and sanitation would prove to be devastating.
It's been 3-4 weeks of that
kill me (later)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 13, 2020, 12:38:51 am
I have some serious misgivings about this. We´re not back to the baseline yet. Our number of contagions-per-day and dead-per-day, and %ICU occupation is more or less the same as it was around 20/3, which is not good. And with COVID19 incubation times it will take at least a week to see if the R0 keeps going down or comes back up again... and even if they reintroduce a full lockdown immediately, we´ll spend two weeks living with the consequences of today´s decision.
I think that, while not necessarily apocalyptical, its a risky and stupid move.
Post by: wierd on April 13, 2020, 12:58:13 am
Wont you think of the poor, starving investors!!
/s
Post by: wierd on April 13, 2020, 02:24:09 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/13/coronavirus-latest-news/
Apparently, the US is wondering if a May-1 relaxation of social distancing and shelter in place might be a bad idea, after China releases new numbers from their own attempt at restarting economic activities...
AMAZING-- it's almost like--- jumping the gun for those investors would result in people getting killed or something! Like, there is this thing called OBJECTIVE REALITY that wont just go away or something! How troublesome!! /s
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 13, 2020, 02:58:53 am
Post by: wierd on April 13, 2020, 03:32:27 am
It's what happens when the powers that be keep insisting on shooting messengers, and denying reality.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/04/13/trump-fire-fauci-coronavirus/
I mean-- THE NERVE of that man-- asserting that lives could have been saved if Trump had not been a dick! Trump did everything right you know! Oh-- Wait--
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/fauci-trump-rebuffed-social-distancing-advice-coronavirus
DAMN THAT OBJECTIVE REALITY!
Post by: Starver on April 13, 2020, 06:22:54 am
Got the gist, though. Before I even got to it. Being the masochist I am and lurking on @realDonaldTrump, etc, even though I don't haveva Twitter log in. (Which is probably a good thing. I might be tempted to put a few choice words out there, and then it would become a few slightly less chosen ones, then I'd be part of the problem.)
Post by: Reelya on April 13, 2020, 07:16:19 am
https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-live-updates-trump-retweets-call-fire-fauci/story?id=70114771
Quote
President Trump retweeted a tweet demanding that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984, be fired from his post.
The tweet was in response to DeAnna Lorraine who is currently running for Congress in California.
Said Lorraine: "Fauci is now saying that had Trump listened to the medical experts earlier he could've saved more lives. Fauci was telling people on February 29th that there was nothing to worry about and it posed no threat to the US public at large.Time to #FireFauci."
Only hours earlier Fauci had appeared on CNN saying that he thinks more lives could have been saved if mitigation efforts to stop the spread of the novel coronavirus had started earlier.
"I mean, obviously, you could logically say that if you had a process that was ongoing and you started mitigation earlier, you could have saved lives, Fauci told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union." "Obviously, no one is going to deny that. But what goes into those decisions is complicated ... But you're right, I mean, obviously, if we had right from the very beginning shut everything down, it may have been a little bit different. But there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then."
So it rests on this claim that on Feb 29th Fauci supposedly said "there was nothing to worry about and it posed no threat to the US public at large", and that he apparently flip-flopped, so he should be fired. This is really trying to pin the blame for Trump's botched response on Fauci by rewriting history.
The "Fauci said there was nothing to worry about" stuff seems to stem from this one specific interview:
https://www.today.com/video/dr-fauci-on-coronavirus-fears-no-need-to-change-lifestyle-yet-79684677616
However, on Feb 28th he was reported to have said the virus might be impossible to contain, so the whole thing rests on some extremely selective memory.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/coronavirus-anthony-fauci-trump-admin-stops-discussion-2020-2
Post by: Cthulhu on April 13, 2020, 08:07:38 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/13/coronavirus-latest-news/
Apparently, the US is wondering if a May-1 relaxation of social distancing and shelter in place might be a bad idea, after China releases new numbers from their own attempt at restarting economic activities...
AMAZING-- it's almost like--- jumping the gun for those investors would result in people getting killed or something! Like, there is this thing called OBJECTIVE REALITY that wont just go away or something! How troublesome!! /s
This entire thing has been a massive rebuttal of the post-truth mentality, on both sides of the political fence. Remember this?
Quote from: Karl Rove?
The aide said that guys like me were 'in what we call the reality-based community,' which he defined as people who 'believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.' [...] 'That's not the way the world really works anymore,' he continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do'.
Everyone on every side rushing to get their clickbait ad money and maneuver the idea of the virus to their gain, Trump and everybody else arguing about whether or not to call it "Chinese Coronavirus," armchair behavioral psychology about the value of masks and social distancing, what this says about my team and what it says about the other team, and none of it changes a single thing because the virus doesn't even know we exist.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETBa6QFX0AEj6IT?format=jpg&name=small)
Post by: Zangi on April 13, 2020, 08:25:34 am
Really, you can even say that has been the primary tactic of the Republicans these past few decades. Just never before has this been layed bare at this massive level of scrutiny before now.
Post by: Iduno on April 13, 2020, 08:29:09 am
The whole trump presidency has been a train wreck of selective memory/opinion being pushed forward and not so much as backtracked, but outright conveniently ignored and brought back forth as they suit the narrative of his administration.
Really, you can even say that has been the primary tactic of the Republicans these past few decades. Just never before has this been layed bare at this massive level of scrutiny before now.
Ameripol, but it doesn't help the the Democrats have decided that the best way to oppose them is to become exactly like them.
Post by: Jopax on April 13, 2020, 08:42:07 am
Even worse, I don't think I've seen this discussed anywhere at all, despite it being the worst possible consequence of this whole thing since it'd leave a whole lot of people at even greater risk just from regular injuries or treatable diseases since you'd have greatly reduced doctor numbers for a few years at least until the education system catches up somewhat.
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 13, 2020, 08:58:51 am
Ameripol, but it doesn't help the the Democrats have decided that the best way to oppose them is to become exactly like them.If you're a political donor, you don't want an opposition, you want two controlled parties so you win no matter who wins
Post by: misko27 on April 13, 2020, 09:21:58 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 13, 2020, 09:23:46 am
So how real is the threat of massive healthcare worker shortages in the next several years causing further issues if something like this were to reoccur? Because they're the ones most at risk here, regardless of their age group or previous illnesses, doubly so with the widespread lack of protective gear or any sort of reserve that would allow them some sort of rotation so you don't get burnout and exhaustion further lowering their chances.Not sure what you are asking here to be honest.
Even worse, I don't think I've seen this discussed anywhere at all, despite it being the worst possible consequence of this whole thing since it'd leave a whole lot of people at even greater risk just from regular injuries or treatable diseases since you'd have greatly reduced doctor numbers for a few years at least until the education system catches up somewhat.
Is this a question about how, as a society, we could prioritize and provide incentives for medical staff?
One of my hopes for this situation is that it somehow manages to shift culture from "immediate profit" to "let's do things a little bit less efficiently in the short run, so we are more stable across all situations." This is very visible in the US, but it's not limited to that geopolitical boundary - almost all countries did not have enough "spare" medical or other capacity for this type of event.
We need to shift from "savings is bad, we need to get people to spend" to "no, really, savings is good." Low interest rates for a decade means personal savings is even less than it usually is, making the financial impacts worse for individuals.
No concept of savings or stockpiles of medical supplies - and in fact structural penalties for having such stockpiles - has made the medical impact worse.
Barriers to entry to becoming medical professionals - means we have no "savings" in staff capacity. Regulatory limits on the required bed utilization - no "savings". (This is one side effect of rules like "must spend 80% of insurance premiums on care" - it meas there is a penalty to build spare capacity!)
Basically the key to all this is "live not just within your means, but below them." And not just as an individual, but as a society.
Post by: scriver on April 13, 2020, 09:27:35 am
Heavy is the head that wears the corona
Post by: Jopax on April 13, 2020, 09:55:35 am
Post by: Cthulhu on April 13, 2020, 09:58:55 am
One of my hopes for this situation is that it somehow manages to shift culture from "immediate profit" to "let's do things a little bit less efficiently in the short run, so we are more stable across all situations." This is very visible in the US, but it's not limited to that geopolitical boundary - almost all countries did not have enough "spare" medical or other capacity for this type of event.
We need to shift from "savings is bad, we need to get people to spend" to "no, really, savings is good." Low interest rates for a decade means personal savings is even less than it usually is, making the financial impacts worse for individuals.
That would be nice, but I think we all know when this is over everyone's going to breathe a sigh of relief and say "Thank god that's over, we survived the pandemic and there will never be another one ever again."
As I've said before in this thread, all advanced societies optimize for efficiency, progressively thinning their safety margins to increase value extracted until a disaster cascade blows the entire thing to hell, and this is the Great Filter.
Post by: martinuzz on April 13, 2020, 10:06:24 am
Where possible, we keep them on 'normal' rotating shifts to prevent finding ourselves in a situation where our doctors are sitting at home with a burnout.
There's concern about their mental wellbeing though, for the many deaths they see, and worse, having to tell families all day long that they will need to stay home and let their loved ones die all alone, are taking it's toll on their mental health. Over here each hospital has round the clock psych care for their doctors and nurses in the building.
It is expected that when this is over, a lot of doctors will need PTSD care.
And a lot of families will need extensive grief councelling for not having been able to say goodbye.
The future looks bright for psychologists and psychiatrists.
Post by: scriver on April 13, 2020, 10:44:57 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 13, 2020, 11:10:16 am
We're being quite careful with our medics here work-schedule wise.I don't want to get too involved in what goes on in other countries but for what I've seem the situation is similar worldwide: lack of PPE, people getting infected.... But not so much work overload except for the departments most involved. Aka: A&E, Internal Medicine, Intensive Care. Also diagnostics departments, to a greater or lesser extent I guess. Others, not so much.
Where possible, we keep them on 'normal' rotating shifts to prevent finding ourselves in a situation where our doctors are sitting at home with a burnout.
There's concern about their mental wellbeing though, for the many deaths they see, and worse, having to tell families all day long that they will need to stay home and let their loved ones die all alone, are taking it's toll on their mental health. Over here each hospital has round the clock psych care for their doctors and nurses in the building.
It is expected that when this is over, a lot of doctors will need PTSD care.
And a lot of families will need extensive grief councelling for not having been able to say goodbye.
The future looks bright for psychologists and psychiatrists.
I am also highly skeptical about your doctors being as cared for as you think. The international pattern is that goverments put up a show about looking for PPE, about supporting doctors (lots of clapping) etc... but in practice the PPE never quite materializes in the quantitoes that were promised, the support is just words, and there is quite a bit of repression. I've heard the same tale time and again from my friends in Spain, UK, Ireland. I read similar testimonies from the US.
I think its everywhere tbh
Post by: Iduno on April 13, 2020, 01:06:28 pm
One of my hopes for this situation is that it somehow manages to shift culture from "immediate profit" to "let's do things a little bit less efficiently in the short run, so we are more stable across all situations." This is very visible in the US, but it's not limited to that geopolitical boundary - almost all countries did not have enough "spare" medical or other capacity for this type of event.
We need to shift from "savings is bad, we need to get people to spend" to "no, really, savings is good." Low interest rates for a decade means personal savings is even less than it usually is, making the financial impacts worse for individuals.
No concept of savings or stockpiles of medical supplies - and in fact structural penalties for having such stockpiles - has made the medical impact worse.
I think the purpose of the bailouts is to make sure nobody has to learn anything, except the citizens learning that "their side" of politics is also voting to enrich themselves at the cost of the larger populace. I think people all over the world are learning how little the ruling class cares for the citizenry.
Post by: Cthulhu on April 13, 2020, 02:54:58 pm
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 13, 2020, 03:28:31 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 13, 2020, 03:45:55 pm
Post by: Greiger on April 13, 2020, 04:09:35 pm
Quote from: Warframe
So, the Corpus are just a cult, worshipping money...So does this mean we've become the generic helmeted villains?
Post by: Cthulhu on April 13, 2020, 04:16:03 pm
But unironically, all political ideologies except socialism are essentially the modern equivalent of religion and are inherently mystical in their goals and measurements.
Every single person in the world is wrong and an idiot except for the people who agree with me, somehow.
Post by: Imic on April 13, 2020, 04:18:38 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 13, 2020, 04:19:00 pm
I'm glad we're on the same page, now, I was thinking we might offer small business owners amnesty if they fight each other in Hunger Games-style pit matches, but then we just kill the winners anyway as a material critique of capitalism. The problem is, we can't both broadcast it and keep the surprise secret from the winners, so I'm open to suggestions.But unironically, all political ideologies except socialism are essentially the modern equivalent of religion and are inherently mystical in their goals and measurements.
Every single person in the world is wrong and an idiot except for the people who agree with me, somehow.
Post by: dragdeler on April 13, 2020, 04:28:33 pm
Post by: Cthulhu on April 13, 2020, 04:43:03 pm
I'm glad we're on the same page, now, I was thinking we might offer small business owners amnesty if they fight each other in Hunger Games-style pit matches, but then we just kill the winners anyway as a material critique of capitalism. The problem is, we can't both broadcast it and keep the surprise secret from the winners, so I'm open to suggestions.But unironically, all political ideologies except socialism are essentially the modern equivalent of religion and are inherently mystical in their goals and measurements.
Every single person in the world is wrong and an idiot except for the people who agree with me, somehow.
That sounds pretty statist to me. And if there's one thing worse than a capitalist, it's a statist.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 13, 2020, 04:44:05 pm
This shit is getting so old, just as all the rehashing on the topic why Sanders lost.This is the covid thread not rhe ameripol thread. Take your dirty democrat politics out of my viruses
Hehe this brings me back to something I thought recently... For Sanders to win his supporters should have shown up in the same numbers but behave themselves in a signicantly less enthousiastic way. Like: "in the realm of empiricism that guy is the compromise, personally I'd prefer fully automated gay space communism, but I'm willing to agree on the basic facts of reality. If that is too much to ask I'm sorry to announce I'll be needing to play video games on election day, preventing me from being able to vote, and since every subjective experience is equally valid to you please shut up about it."
just pull the rug below tribalism, since we've established in 2016 that a few tens of thousands of votes in the right places could swing the election, I think aiming for the narcissists wholove to repeat what comes from authorityonly want toshow off their knowledgeantagonize, is an equally valid election campaign strategy
Imagine the scenes: Bernie Sanders preaching to himself while thousands of desinterested people stare on their smartphones. Yes this is the way.
Post by: dragdeler on April 13, 2020, 04:54:48 pm
Post by: TD1 on April 13, 2020, 05:09:27 pm
Though this really is the wrong thread for the discussion.
Post by: Teneb on April 13, 2020, 07:19:21 pm
I'm lucky enough that my family can sustain my unemployed ass and that we can stay isolated. But still.
Post by: misko27 on April 13, 2020, 08:10:26 pm
Post by: Max™ on April 14, 2020, 01:50:22 am
That's nearly 9000 tests per 1,000,000 people.
We know of around 590k cases here since it began, with roughly 526k of those currently infected and 12k of those are serious.
The gap between active and total cases in the states breaks down so far as 36,498 recoveries, and 23,644 deaths.
That looks right around 4% to me (600/100=6, 23/6~=4) and unfortunately we still haven't done nearly enough tests to even guess if we've done enough tests to make a rough estimate of total infections active right now, and accordingly any sense of the true number of lives lost so far is hopefully somewhere in the gray area between "bad" and "worse" instead of off in the distance beyond "curl up and sob" mountain.
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2020, 02:23:20 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 14, 2020, 07:11:25 am
In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods? What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system. What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.
Post by: wierd on April 14, 2020, 07:16:32 am
In the US, we have given a megaphone to those twits. They are usually the same people who "Anti-vaxx for religious reasons", where "religious reasons" is 'Crystal healing woo.'
No. The virus is very well researched at this point. We know a lot about its morphology, many of its proteins, how its capsid is assembled, etc....
Social distancing and proper hygiene. Do those things. Dont listen to morons suggesting tonic water, there is no evidence that quinine in it has any effect whatsoever.
Post by: Frumple on April 14, 2020, 07:41:53 am
We're coming up on 3 million tests in the US now.That's almost a full percent of the population! Not quite. It's still <1%. But it's almost out of the (0.009) tenths of hundredths! Almost. Not there yet. But getting there. Only took. *checks notes* Shit, timeline's fuzzy. Call it two months, be generous? Give it another month for a full percent, or 3 months per percent of the population tested. Do that 100 more times and a quarter century from now we'd have tested everyone :V
That's nearly 9000 tests per 1,000,000 people.
Well, they were saying something like only 70-80% likely infection saturation, so only 70-80 more times, so 17-20 more years to identify everyone that caught it. I guess if we just stick to the dead (which, I'unno, rate there's all over the place, let's go with 4% of infected? That's under worse case seen, iirc.) it'd only take like (70*3*.04) 9 months to positively identify the dead if I'm mathing right after being awake for like five minutes. By that point we're probably going to be more busy trying to figure out what to do with those hundreds of thousands of extra corpses...
...
There's going to be a lot of people that die from the crow plague untested, a lot of deaths not acknowledged as caused by it, huh.
The commander wasn't fired because he was concerned for his crew. He was fired because he didn't follow proper chain of command and/or security procedures. If you can't understand that difference and why it matters in a military vessel... (and this coming from a person who is by no means a military apologist).That was 'cause the chain of command was trying to get his subordinates fucking killed by the crow plague, though. From what I understand they weren't the first in American military history to do pull that, some largely without censure, and probably won't be the last.
Though last I checked he wasn't even fired. Someone or another figured out that shitcanning the guy trying to keep his people from drowning in their own lungs after his superiors fucked up handling the situation was a bad look, I guess.
Quote
In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods? What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system. What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.Fuck, these shits make their goddamn living off this crap. Peddling horseshit to the desperate is literally their standard operating procedure. That tone of absolute authority is how they functionally murder and defraud people under normal circumstances. Covid's probably a goddamn superstimulus to those fuckers. Lot more desperate people to prey on, and reality offering zero chance of a reliable pharmaceutical aid anytime soon.
Personally be pretty comfortable with tossing the lot of the bastards in jail (and yes, I'm aware those are basically plague pits right now), but that's not really on the table :-\
Post by: mko on April 14, 2020, 07:57:12 am
In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods? What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system. What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.
Standard scammers, spammers and charlatans? Nothing new. Block, report and move on.
Post by: Starver on April 14, 2020, 08:46:55 am
- 3M Facemask for your face
- 2m Electric Cattle Prod for anyone too close
Post by: Iduno on April 14, 2020, 09:09:01 am
Healthcare quackery is old as sin.
In the US, we have given a megaphone to those twits. They are usually the same people who "Anti-vaxx for religious reasons", where "religious reasons" is 'Crystal healing woo.'
No. The virus is very well researched at this point. We know a lot about its morphology, many of its proteins, how its capsid is assembled, etc....
Social distancing and proper hygiene. Do those things. Dont listen to morons suggesting tonic water, there is no evidence that quinine in it has any effect whatsoever.
What, next you're going to tell us that huffing steam doesn't somehow make you immune to Corvid?
In other news - what's up with all these personae popping up on the media saying that the medical establishment is wrong about COVID, and it can't be solved with modern medicine but instead we have to use homeopathic methods? What gets me about these isn't the concept that vitamins and "being healthy" can help your immune system. What gets me is the tone of absolute authority these voices have.
Standard scammers, spammers and charlatans? Nothing new. Block, report and move on.
Somewhat more difficult IRL, where they reside.
Post by: Teneb on April 14, 2020, 09:15:22 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2020, 02:34:29 pm
Best case scenario, which assumes that the corona crisis will whittle down and 'normal' life is slowly resumed in the second half of 2020, the world economy will shrink with 3%.
In comparison, the 2008/2009 economic crisis 'only' shrunk the world economy by 0.1%
The IMF expects the economy to grow again in 2021, with 5.8%
8.2 trillion euros will be lost in worldwide GNP, which is about the combined GNP of Japan and Germany.
The IMF does add that these projections are 'extremely uncertain', and that if the crisis continues past the fist half of the year, economic damage will be another 3% in the 3d quarter of 2020, making it take longer for the economy to recover in 2021.
In other news, a Harvard studies suggests that, for as long as there is no vaccin, we will need to keep locking down our societies for weeks to months every 3-4 months until at least 2022 or maybe even 2024, or it will keep coming back as bad as it is now.
Extending our ICU capacities will decrease the number of subsequent lockdowns needed, from an expected 8 to 7.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/studie-harvard-elk-kwartaal-een-lockdown-om-virus-te-bedwingen~b8f6ec33/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/studie-harvard-elk-kwartaal-een-lockdown-om-virus-te-bedwingen~b8f6ec33/)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793 (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793)
Ofcourse, if we do that, what our economies will end up to be will make the Great Depression look like a land of milk and honey.
Worst worst case scenario is when people who have had the virus lose immunity after some time, which is not unusual with many other respiratory virusses. In that case we can expect a few yearly lockdowns for the rest of our lives, or until a medicine is found that makes the illness less severe, so less people end up on ICU.
Post by: Starver on April 14, 2020, 04:05:54 pm
8.2 trillion euros will be lost in worldwide GNP,Check behind the sofa cushions?
Post by: TamerVirus on April 14, 2020, 04:19:22 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 14, 2020, 04:37:54 pm
Do you know what's definitely an essential business during this pandemic? Pro Wrestling! (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241989596.html)What? Why? That’s a terrible idea.
Post by: Iduno on April 14, 2020, 04:41:02 pm
Do you know what's definitely an essential business during this pandemic? Pro Wrestling! (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241989596.html)Why?
Florida.
Post by: mko on April 14, 2020, 04:45:00 pm
Worst worst case scenario is when people who have had the virus lose immunity after some time, which is not unusual with many other respiratory virusses. In that case we can expect a few yearly lockdowns for the rest of our lives, or until a medicine is found that makes the illness less severe, so less people end up on ICU.
Multiyear lockdown would kill more people than COVID, so in such case continuing it would be a bad idea.
Post by: Starver on April 14, 2020, 04:54:31 pm
Do you know what's definitely an essential business during this pandemic? Pro Wrestling! (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241989596.html)As sort-of-documented in hovertext by Randall Munroe (https://xkcd.com/2291/)?
I mean, non-contact VR-only wrestling is pretty much possible for people already executing highly choreographed 'self-slamdowns'.
(Incidentally, from the latest comic (https://www.xkcd.com/2293/) I learnt yesterday that John Conway (the creator of the Game Of Life (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life) who isn't Milton Bradley (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_of_Life)) has died. Among so many others, of course.)
Post by: TamerVirus on April 14, 2020, 05:59:12 pm
I mean, non-contact VR-only wrestling is pretty much possible for people already executing highly choreographed 'self-slamdowns'."The Invisible Man" has been used as a gimmick before :Pretty much a one man wrestling match (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74g288PyP8M)
In fact, "Invisible Wrestler" vs "Invisible Wrestler" has also been done, somehow (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cslu7zFmPjM)
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2020, 08:52:52 pm
Trump decided to stop the US contribution to the WHO, accusing them of obscuring and blurring the severity of the corona outbreak in China.
'The outbreak could have been stopped at the source with only little casualties', he said.
'The WHO has failed her basic objective", and "it needs to be held responsible'.
He announced that all payments to the WHO will immediatly be placed on hold, until the WHO's conduct in the pandemic has been evaluated.
The US up to now has been the largest contributor to the WHO. Last year the US spent 400 million dollars on it.
Post by: hector13 on April 14, 2020, 08:54:19 pm
He’s trying to distract from his whole “I AM THE LAW” and general criticism of his incompetence.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 14, 2020, 09:02:14 pm
Post by: Reelya on April 14, 2020, 09:08:03 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2020, 09:11:58 pm
Post by: Starver on April 14, 2020, 09:14:37 pm
Also announced an offshore drugs siezure, while failing to do anything to help with useful drugs (except hitch himself to that iffy chloroquinine stuff, again likely with financial remunerations attached to his direct benefit).
TBH, the UK government is doing similar self-excusing, the line being "at all times we have been following the latest scientific advice" (a.k.a. "Not our fault, guvnor... You can't get the wood you know!") but at least they aren't just... whatever it is that he's doing.
Post by: Rolan7 on April 14, 2020, 09:30:07 pm
<sigh>I'm gonna be honest, my first reaction to this went against forum guidelines. Not even from a place of anger - I got angry when he started making noises about this early last week or so (arguably for weeks, but it got severe). Maybe it's a cold anger? It feels more like confusion.
Trump decided to stop the US contribution to the WHO, accusing them of obscuring and blurring the severity of the corona outbreak in China.
'The outbreak could have been stopped at the source with only little casualties', he said.
'The WHO has failed her basic objective", and "it needs to be held responsible'.
He announced that all payments to the WHO will immediatly be placed on hold, until the WHO's conduct in the pandemic has been evaluated.
The US up to now has been the largest contributor to the WHO. Last year the US spent 400 million dollars on it.
I guess I don't wish any harm on him as long as he's removed from office for being a clear and present danger to all humanity. I mean, revenge is the kind of pointless endeavor he'd advocate. Rehabilitation is a much more enlightened goal, after you've resolved the threat to the public of course.
He's not supposed to put holds like this on congressionally assigned funds - like, particularly for his own ego or benefit... Does he still not get that? I guess he doesn't care, since he got away with it before and presumably now. We are so fucked...
Post by: misko27 on April 14, 2020, 09:42:56 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 14, 2020, 09:49:26 pm
Post by: Max™ on April 14, 2020, 10:24:19 pm
Post by: Bumber on April 15, 2020, 12:55:30 am
Btw: recent case-control studies with HCQ point to it providing some symptom relief (if at all) but little else, with similar times to seroconversion and ICU admission rates
Is that with or without azithromycin and zinc? I heard that HCQ by itself is expected to be mostly useful as a prophylactic.
Post by: Starver on April 15, 2020, 03:48:12 am
Btw: recent case-control studies with HCQ point to it providing some symptom relief (if at all) but little else, with similar times to seroconversion and ICU admission ratesWhich may or may not be a good thing.
"Not feeling so bad" might help someone clinically on the edge have the confidence to strive to pull through, or give the treatment team confidence that helps.
OTOH, some symptoms are part of the body's defence mechansims. Some of those are more like desperate flailing at the threat (could even be counterproductive, 'cos diseases be crazy-prepared like that[1]) but others are doing good things.
I doubt HCQ is discriminatory about this, and it'll be a balance. Also a balance against whatever else it does to the body; conditions that might be less serious under continuous hospital care but might complicate the life of self-medicating walking wounded already reluctant to seek to visit an actual doctor.
[1] It's evolutionary success, really. Like the organism that found it encouraged its mouse-hosts to no longer be as afraid of its subsequent cat-hosts, through randomly tweaking some specific response mechanism. Or, if you prefer it simple, absolutely every disease that provokes sneezing (the point at which pollen also works out how to hijack this system, I'm officially a slave to plants...)
Post by: Starver on April 15, 2020, 11:48:36 am
As far as I can tell, from what I just heard of the UK Daily Briefing, either side of an incoming phone-call, they're effectively going to roll out a "Thanks for Turning Up"
I wish the politicians would step back. Let the professionals say things (it could still be things approved by the politicos, I expect) and stay away from the glibb stuff, please.
(Edited for tyops.)
Post by: Iduno on April 15, 2020, 12:32:07 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2020, 12:56:29 pm
Needless to say once testing continued for a bit, they found positives :P
Post by: McTraveller on April 15, 2020, 02:38:14 pm
https://www.abc12.com/content/news/Protesters-block-traffic-around-Michigan-Capitol-in-Lansing-569660231.html
This is the stuff that really scares me, moreso than the virus itself.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 15, 2020, 03:48:32 pm
There is one confirmed case in my actual home area. Luckily my family works in/near the city so I can get my proper dose of general covid worry.
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2020, 04:37:22 pm
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 15, 2020, 05:08:01 pm
I can go outside and stuff without seeing anyone at all, maybe like one neighbor kid on a bike every so often.
Post by: martinuzz on April 15, 2020, 05:09:19 pm
Post by: Starver on April 15, 2020, 05:44:39 pm
I feel Ok (briskly walked a couple of miles to the supermarket[1], walked less briskly back due to my bulging bag-for-life (*fnar fnar*) and a small hill leading back up to my own door) but that actually doesn't mean much, we know.Maybe lucky for me, but by extension could be a problem for someone else.
[1] With stupidly half-hearted one-way system indicated on aisles, but not enforced. I obeyed them, but many others didn't. Or blocked the aisle (e.g. trolley[2] perpendicular as they stare at a section of shelving, deep in consideration, and I could hardly have squeezed past even without trying to give lip-service to the 2m of space) regardless of what direction they went in.
Spoiler: More footnote-1 grumbling... (click to show/hide)
Post by: delphonso on April 15, 2020, 06:38:04 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2020, 07:12:41 pm
This is mostly just due to habitual hurricane prep -- sometimes shit breaks down for weeks because nature just decked your ass like an angry fist of god, so you have weeks of emergency supplies -- but it applies to other issues, too, heh. We've never really had to lean on the habit, but it is a massive relief to not really have to worry about food at any given time, even if shit's gone pretty south. Things get particularly unpleasant when you're worrying about when your next meal is going to be. Much less so if it's just when your next good one is.
Post by: Greiger on April 15, 2020, 07:34:48 pm
So yea, either tests being available is complete bullshit or Florida is trying to keep it's numbers down by not issuing tests to those that have reason to be tested.
Post by: Iduno on April 15, 2020, 07:53:51 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2020, 07:56:21 pm
There's apparently supply issues in regards to testing availability, too, for what it's worth, but florida is fucking up basically everything it can fuck up on top of it. If there's a hell, desantis'll burn in it for the clusterfuck he's helmed in regards to the crow plague.
Post by: Bumber on April 15, 2020, 08:25:55 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 15, 2020, 08:42:18 pm
no job? no problem
get in the van and invade iran sonny
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2020, 08:44:46 pm
Wait, shit, are they actually looking like they're going to try that?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 15, 2020, 08:49:34 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 16, 2020, 03:08:53 am
Doctors are mentally breaking down from heartbreak and crying in the hallways.
As one doctor put it "I've worked on IC for twenty years, and people dying, I can handle that. But I can't take much more of having to tell families they can't say goodbye or sit at their beloved ones' death beds".
We can't afford our doctors breaking down and getting stuck at home with antidepressives and diazepams, there's already a shortage of IC specialists.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 16, 2020, 03:14:58 am
It's atrocious to bar people, but let's be real, the hospitals are probably already doing worse things just to get through this. I'm not even sure if that's an argument for or against letting families in.
Post by: martinuzz on April 16, 2020, 03:22:55 am
Post by: wierd on April 16, 2020, 03:24:27 am
Family members... probably do not have the same level of understanding, and voluntary action going on. You are talking people who are grief stricken and probably not able to make rational choices to begin with being put into a highly contagious environment, then expecting them to rigidly self-quarantine for 14 days without any further human contact, in order to make that ONE tragedy not be dozens or hundreds more.
It's shit, but that's how dirty harsh realities are. I don't have a solution to this. There probably isn't one-- but letting people into the isolation wards is not in the interests of public health.
Post by: martinuzz on April 16, 2020, 04:13:58 am
Morgues are unable to keep up with the dead.
For the past weeks, people have had to store their loved ones wrapped in plastic in their garages and sheds.
Cats and dogs are starting to eat corpses.
People are resorting to pouring gasoline over their loved ones and cremating them at home.
The streets smell of death.
Post by: Max™ on April 16, 2020, 04:31:43 am
*view personality and thoughts*
"...was forced to endure the decay of a loved one recently."
Well fuck, who dropped a big chunk of df into the reality codebase?
Post by: Zangi on April 16, 2020, 05:46:00 am
Post by: Starver on April 16, 2020, 05:51:49 am
I reckon that was part of it - Americans shop for a week or two at a time, usually. Perhaps that place was encouraging similar behavior by requiring trolleys. Hell, my mother had enough food in her house to last her a month, before even going shopping.
Eh, it depends a lot on specifics. Folks without much storage space (small apartment stuff) tend to shop more. Folks with a fair amount tend to shop less, since they, y'know, have places to put things. Where I'm at (and the baseline I try to meet for my household regardless), we usually have enough squirrelled away we could go without grocery shopping for probably a month, maybe two if we stretched things. It wouldn't be exactly enjoyable (fresh or comfort food is most of our regular monthly/bi-monthly shopping, with replenishing staples less common), but we wouldn't starve.My situation: I built up a 'Brexit' cache, over a number of months of one or two extra tins or dried packets (driven mostly by multibuy deals that I liked the look of) per shop, well outside of any panic-buy season. But I'm not eating that (much) when it isn't absolutely "sirens in the streets" lockdown. Plus I might still need it later when the delayed fall off the Brexit cliff happens, now with added COVID complication. I also still have some Y2K stuff, of longer-lasting supplies I'm still happy to leave untouched. ;)
[...]
i didn't need bread. I already got a couple of loafs the previous week, that lasts long enough - there's no shortages, just restricted ranges, and a couple of weeks prior I even 'helped out' by buying a reduced-to-clear loaf proving that the initial shelf-clearing panic had totally ended (ditto, many many easter eggs were piled up On Sale, yesterday, one of the places the two face-masked women were obliviously blocking my progress). But I 'needed' some other shorter-term foodstuffs like cheese (which always would last longer than I would let it, actually, but it tends to be eaten). Annoyingly, the pre-cut blocks of cheese I tend to go for (good quality but good price) that are labelled and arranged in strengths 1 to 5 were totally absent in the 4 and 5 ranges, so I necessarily forwent the really nice stuff (not counting the separate artisan-level products, at a price range I reserve for special purchases) and 'slummed it' with strength 3 Red Leicester (perfectly servicable, letting me be creative with herbs/etc in dishes and sandwiches it gets used in). Next time I'll see if there's a nice Somerset Brie, though, or similar. Doesn't last as long (by duration of eatability, but far more so by the rate at which I eat it anyway) but I haven't had that for a while.
Anyway, add in some other things (veggie stuff, etc) what might have been a shop for 'essentials' under a tenner, to prevent my overloading on rice and pasta and chilli con carne and whatavyer, became a £23+change shop. But that included a couple of magazines from the news-stand (probably entirely replicating various online resources, covering the subjects, but I find it's nice to encourage these publishers) which were my biggest unnecessary 'splurge' and yet didn't add so much to the bag-load.
I totally ignored the alcohol aisles (I already have some nice whiskies at home, but bought years ago and, at my rate of consumption, they'll still last years more) but I had picked up a couple of bottles of fruit-tinted zero sugar cola (to satisfy my somewhat less sophisticated section of my pallette - I love the taste of aspartame in the morning!), each by far the heaviest single item by weight (2 litres, so ~2 kg, twice) and were probably what made the plastic bag handle dig awkwardly into my hand, and might have been regretted most. Next time (next week, situation allowing) I might tote my rucksack to the shop, but I'm conscious of the image I'd portray even if I'm actually not targetting 'in demand' stuff.
If necessary, I could just barricade the door, make my excuses to the world and hunker down. And as long as the utilities kept running (I've contingency water, perhaps being a bit more stuffed with electricity and gas if they fail than if the taps dry up), but it is totally precipitous to not shop. Until it isn't, and I can only hope to recognise if/when that changes ahead of the curve. If I don't, I shall just have to hope some future scavanger with great need will benefit from pawing through the rubble that once was my own little patch of civilisation and strike lucky at just the right time.
((Note to self: Get some First Aid Kits. A 100% one, if possible, but several 10%ers anyway, to dot around the place. Maybe some body armour, a radiation suit and/or a chainsaw too. And, of course, a lot of hidden easter-eggs. I wonder which bit of wall I can easiest make slide down?))
Post by: Quarque on April 16, 2020, 05:55:58 am
Well fuck, who dropped a big chunk of df into the reality codebase?
This whole disease is incredibly dwarfy. Any moment now, I'm expecting people in quarantine to throw tantrums and start a loyalty cascade. Setting the population cap to 7 billion was a bad idea, I guess. :P
Post by: TD1 on April 16, 2020, 05:56:29 am
I wonder if any religion holds in a 'starting seven.' Christianity's 'starting two' just seems like such a slow start, and God used the exile function way too soon in the game. I mean, I'm sure it was fun to pick them up on adventure mode, but honestly. He should have waited for them to do some decent mining and crafting first.Well fuck, who dropped a big chunk of df into the reality codebase?
This whole disease is incredibly dwarfy. Any moment now, I'm expecting people in quarantine to throw tantrums and start a loyalty cascade. Setting the population cap to 7 billion was a bad idea, I guess. :P
Post by: Trekkin on April 16, 2020, 06:20:27 am
Personally I think covid has given people a bit of perspective on what a true catastrophe is. I doubt people will be able to get as worked up about how much brexit is the literal apocalypse when they remember dead bodies decomposing in homes with nobody wanting to enter for fear of catching deadly disease.
If 1918 is any guide, the public will forget in short order. There will be some brief slactivisim to thank the heroes nobody wants to pay, some grandiose speeches about unity from people about to blame each other for everything, a smattering of return-to-normalcy discounts, a lot of whining from the usual monomaniacs about how It All Just Goes To Show I Was Right All Along, and then everyone will return to their regularly scheduled memes and distractions. The coronavirus is too immutably real to compete for memory in a world of ten thousand advertisements and pointless social games.
Not that this is necessarily a bad thing, mind you. There's nothing most people can do about these things anyway, so they might as well get back to distracting themselves.
Post by: thompson on April 16, 2020, 06:22:16 am
I wonder if any religion holds in a 'starting seven.' Christianity's 'starting two' just seems like such a slow start, and God used the exile function way too soon in the game. I mean, I'm sure it was fun to pick them up on adventure mode, but honestly. He should have waited for them to do some decent mining and crafting first.
Nah, he was doing a minimalist embark and just threw it in once he realised the caravan wasn’t coming. Forest embarks aren’t much fun without picks or axes.
Post by: Starver on April 16, 2020, 06:30:49 am
I wonder if any religion holds in a 'starting seven.'Ask the people of Westeros?
(Well, more a septuinity of aspects, I think, not being sufficiently immersed in the lore. Though creation myths often have godly avatars create their own "first born" mortal to interact with others' own inventions, leading to an earthly reflection of the heavenly politics before one or other system implodes and goes fuzzy. JHVH just cheated by cut'n'pasting from His original to create the second individual. Maybe because it would have been weird to have had the Father and the Holy Spirit create their own humans separately, all the while telling the Son that he couldn't play with the clay because He hadn't even been born yet. Or something. IANATheologian.)
I think seven is a funny number. Too high to be definite (solo, pair, even a pair of pairs or a handful) too low to be "oh, like multitudinous aspects, we're a bit fuzzy about the numbers". SFAICT, seven works best when trying to establish a Rock-Paper-Scissors sort of circular hierarchy-of-'equals' and you think five is too low/clichéd. (Don't know if that made George R. R. a fan of Kingdom Of Loathing or not...)
Nah, he was doing a minimalist embark and just threw it in once he realised the caravan wasn’t coming. Forest embarks aren’t much fun without picks or axes.Apparently, there wasn't any booze, and not even an anvil (though there was at least one flaming sword added in, probably tied up most of the embark points). And wasn't this the version where zoning could sometimes be ignored by fruit-pickers?
Post by: NJW2000 on April 16, 2020, 06:41:17 am
Personally I think covid has given people a bit of perspective on what a true catastrophe is. I doubt people will be able to get as worked up about how much brexit is the literal apocalypse when they remember dead bodies decomposing in homes with nobody wanting to enter for fear of catching deadly disease.Or perhaps people will become more disgruntled about the economy getting screwed over by a spasm of patriotism after we're already in a recession. Because even though the UK really isn't Ecuador, you can still starve here from being poor.
At least our population may think again about whether they've really "had enough of experts", what with the epidemiologists holding the government to account, that history student Cummings blathering on about herd immunity and lestting pensioners die, and NHS staff sacrificing their lives for the common good. It might happen, though I'm not very hopeful really.
Post by: Starver on April 16, 2020, 07:34:03 am
Not for the situation, but for the people who take any indication that (say) some computer model isn't exactly predictive of what has come to pass to just reject any and all other suggested outcomes that aren't in line with their own utopian vision.
My take on these things is that it can swing wildly any which way, so it could deux ex back to nothing at all or maybe I and everyone I love are already dead but just don't know it yet. I'm basing my reactions on a window of possibilities where I am neither cowering under my safety blanket nor shouting "All gods are bastards!" on top of a hill[1] in a thunderstorm.
And even if any crazy-preparedness I do is over the top, I stand by the Rule Of The Buffet... "If there's not too much, there wasn't enough" (But never so much more that it isn't practical to gradually eat what I can of the leftovers over the next few days after the party I hosted, rather than just wastefully chuck it all away, and that saves on subsequent cooking.)
[1] Traditionally, this is whilst wearing wet copper armour, but Faraday effects should technically apply, even assuming the occasional touching point to bare skin.
Post by: Bralbaard on April 16, 2020, 07:41:11 am
every day there's more people leaving the ICU than coming in, so capacitiy is freeing up.
Mostly because people leave in coffins. According to tuesdays numbers about half the people that have "left" ICU so far, did so because they died. The other half was discharged from ICU but many of those are still in hospital.
It is encouraging though that the number of new admissions is relatively low.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/meer-sterfte-gemeld-ic-bezetting-neemt-af~bf0cc7cd/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/meer-sterfte-gemeld-ic-bezetting-neemt-af~bf0cc7cd/)
Post by: Iduno on April 16, 2020, 08:02:36 am
Florida is absolutely going out of its way to not fucking test, yes. So far as I'm aware we still don't have a state-level relaxation on guidelines for who to test, guidelines that would pointedly fucking miss asymptomatic, presymptomatic, and mildly symptomatic infected. It's basically an utter pain in the ass to even get recommended for testing unless you're approaching the point it's time to stick your ass in a hospital.
There's apparently supply issues in regards to testing availability, too, for what it's worth, but florida is fucking up basically everything it can fuck up on top of it. If there's a hell, desantis'll burn in it for the clusterfuck he's helmed in regards to the crow plague.
Like letting Florida residents off the cruise ship to spread disease, but keeping everyone else confined?
I really don't know what I'd do with that one. to be honest. You'll spread the infection if you let them - no precaution seems to be enough to ensure safe contact, let alone in a hospital.
It's atrocious to bar people, but let's be real, the hospitals are probably already doing worse things just to get through this. I'm not even sure if that's an argument for or against letting families in.
What would you say if you were given the choice of not saying goodbye, or not leaving yourself (as you were likely to be infected now as well) until you tested negative after a quarantine period? Roll the dice and hope you make it through?
Post by: Frumple on April 16, 2020, 08:05:31 am
It is encouraging though that the number of new admissions is relatively low.I mean, that'll be encouraging if there isn't a spike commensurate with the reduction in the number of people dying at home. NYC has had something like that happen, iirc. Cases at the hospitals appeared to stabilize or go down, right as the number of "inexplicable" home deaths started crawling upwards :-\
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/meer-sterfte-gemeld-ic-bezetting-neemt-af~bf0cc7cd/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/meer-sterfte-gemeld-ic-bezetting-neemt-af~bf0cc7cd/)
Post by: Starver on April 16, 2020, 10:17:19 am
(I have just such a fence.)
Post by: misko27 on April 16, 2020, 10:47:19 am
Post by: TD1 on April 16, 2020, 11:06:54 am
Eh, there are an awful lot of assumptions in there which tend to be tied to a certain strain of political thought. I was tempted to chase 'em all, but this ain't Pokemon :PPersonally I think covid has given people a bit of perspective on what a true catastrophe is. I doubt people will be able to get as worked up about how much brexit is the literal apocalypse when they remember dead bodies decomposing in homes with nobody wanting to enter for fear of catching deadly disease.Or perhaps people will become more disgruntled about the economy getting screwed over by a spasm of patriotism after we're already in a recession. Because even though the UK really isn't Ecuador, you can still starve here from being poor.
At least our population may think again about whether they've really "had enough of experts", what with the epidemiologists holding the government to account, that history student Cummings blathering on about herd immunity and lestting pensioners die, and NHS staff sacrificing their lives for the common good. It might happen, though I'm not very hopeful really.
Suffice it to say that disgruntlement, if need for it arises, will be juxtaposed with direct fear for their own lives.
Post by: Reelya on April 16, 2020, 12:21:40 pm
That puts the deaths to known cases at around 5%, which implies that it's just the tip of the iceberg.
Post by: NJW2000 on April 16, 2020, 12:24:00 pm
Suffice it to say that disgruntlement, if need for it arises, will be juxtaposed with direct fear for their own lives.Among many people it will, yes. A majority of the people who think a No Deal Brexit may cause economic damage will be in more danger from covid than poverty. Not all, however.
Once the Covid global recession occurs, the welfare state will most likely be put under a lot more pressure than it has the resources to deal with. At that point, we will be forced to acknowledge that for some people, economic downturn entails unemployment entails homelessness.
While I do indeed follow a certain strain of political thought, nobody even bothers to deny that the hard Brexit currently being pursued will hurt the economy in the short term. That short-term impact may be one of the few things people find less palatable when they start getting hungrier.
Post by: McTraveller on April 16, 2020, 12:43:37 pm
It was looking like it was getting better, but then over 6000 deaths were recorded in one day in the USA of coronavirus recently.That is a reporting anomaly, not an actual 6000 deaths on one day - and the data has tons of asterisks by it because of that. Although to be fair, we don't really know how many deaths there are due to the disease on a given day.
That puts the deaths to known cases at around 5%, which implies that it's just the tip of the iceberg.
This also goes to show why you should never change reporting criteria in the middle of a data set - you should instead fork the data sets - continue the old way in parallel with the new way for instance. Or just stop the old data set and start the new one.
Post by: WealthyRadish on April 16, 2020, 12:55:46 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 16, 2020, 01:10:50 pm
It was looking like it was getting better, but then over 6000 deaths were recorded in one day in the USA of coronavirus recently.That is a reporting anomaly, not an actual 6000 deaths on one day - and the data has tons of asterisks by it because of that. Although to be fair, we don't really know how many deaths there are due to the disease on a given day.
That puts the deaths to known cases at around 5%, which implies that it's just the tip of the iceberg.
This also goes to show why you should never change reporting criteria in the middle of a data set - you should instead fork the data sets - continue the old way in parallel with the new way for instance. Or just stop the old data set and start the new one.
Yeah, but for this example, the old data set was shown to be incorrect, so you'd discontinue it and replace it with a better one.
Post by: Starver on April 16, 2020, 02:07:08 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 16, 2020, 06:45:16 pm
Also, one about making masks:
https://twitter.com/moby_dickhead/status/1250567120032878592 (https://twitter.com/moby_dickhead/status/1250567120032878592)
Post by: misko27 on April 17, 2020, 10:38:29 am
On the topic of vastly higher case counts than reported is Sweden. Sweden has 12,500 cases, but 1333 deaths. Their ratio of cases to deaths is actually much worse than Brazil's right now, and Brazil was though to have several times the official caseload by scientists there. (The ratio of cases to deaths in Brazil is 6.32%, the ratio in Sweden is 10.63%). That's... mind-blowingly bad actually. Implies either the Swedish Healthcare system is 40% worse than Brazil's (which I don't find likely), that the Swedes have some sort of super-strain which is straight up 250% as deadly as the regular virus (which I really really hope is not the case), or they're dramatically undercounting their totals.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 17, 2020, 11:16:17 am
EXACTLY 50%, rounded up 1
such a nice, round percentage...
On the topic of vastly higher case counts than reported is Sweden. Sweden has 12,500 cases, but 1333 deaths. TIsn't Sweden going the whole "no lockdown, herd immunity" route?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 17, 2020, 11:23:35 am
You know I've mentioned how I'm worried for certain countries... well, I've been following the NY Times Coronavirus map and tracker (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) and see some worrying trends. Russia has surpassed Brazil's (official!) totals, which is concerning as Brazil is the larger country and they previously had a very similar case count per capita. Brazil's case count has raised somewhat more slowly than Russia, but it's deaths have almost doubled from a week ago it seems like, which is really bad because the ratio of deaths-to-official-cases was really very high, indicating a vastly higher case count than is reported.You have to look at the #of tests in each country. Specially per capita. IIRC Sweden is low on that list. No superstrain, just superspread and infradetection. Which is happening everywhere tbh but the less you test the worse it looks and the worse you control it.
On the topic of vastly higher case counts than reported is Sweden. Sweden has 12,500 cases, but 1333 deaths. Their ratio of cases to deaths is actually much worse than Brazil's right now, and Brazil was though to have several times the official caseload by scientists there. (The ratio of cases to deaths in Brazil is 6.32%, the ratio in Sweden is 10.63%). That's... mind-blowingly bad actually. Implies either the Swedish Healthcare system is 40% worse than Brazil's (which I don't find likely), that the Swedes have some sort of super-strain which is straight up 250% as deadly as the regular virus (which I really really hope is not the case), or they're dramatically undercounting their totals.
Mind you, while Chin and Russia are in the champion's league of releasing incomplete covid19 information, I think every country is doing fairly terrible at reporting the nunbers of infected, dead, tests, and the criteria for each. So take everything with a pinch of salt
Post by: Starver on April 17, 2020, 12:49:13 pm
It'd then be primarily a stacked data lines/areas being (baseline to top) something like mortalities not obviously associated with COVID, mortalities with unconfirmed suspicions of COVID, mortalities ascribed to COVID (would be nice to split that up into serious pre-existing comorbidity), recoveries, individuals tested positive (not part of the prior two at that datum), tested individuals not yet resolved at that datum, those confirmed negative (at that time, does not preclude their retesting later) and then up to the 100% ceiling would be all untested individuals.
A dotted line can also be sent up there equating to total number of tests conducted (retested individuals would raise that figure higher above the cumulative "tested" results level, deaths without tests would drag it down a bit and it could eventually get beyond the 100% ceiling if there's a concerted effort in a given population). That's for current infection, but another trend-line for historic infection/immunity testing could also feature importantly.
Mark times of major policy changes (lock-downs/open-ups, whole or partial, etc) with handy markers.
And then, with transparency of layers, allow comparisons between two (or more?) overlaid charts. Could be countries, regions, continents, towns, global figures or single naval ship. Though with the smaller populations being noticably more granular you'd expect steeper lines to wipe out the untested+live upper section, as a consequence so that's one thing you should not be surprised to see..
Not all exact measures will be available, and some may be lagged, but additional markup can show this. On top of not having any hooe of knowing anything for sure for daily updates, so the most recent edge would fade into blurred extrapolation, ) countries with revising counts (as China appears to have done) or changing metrics (UK implicitly counting 'hospital deaths' only, but we could easily post-facto shove in non-ward deaths under whatever class best fits) are already back-extrapolatable to indicate what is and is not a blip like a single immutable line would suggest.
It all works in my mind, anyway. It's not so much the absolute figures we're supposed to take from this but the relative profiles (and thicknesses) of zones. An ahistorical Non-Covid Deaths area and/or practically invisible (even on log-scale) thickness of all Tested sections would indicate likelihood of any problems with a certain jurisdiction. (c.f. the Floridian counties, as mentioned, or those countries recently mentioned).
Post by: sluissa on April 17, 2020, 04:24:12 pm
I think at this point we really can't say we understand truly how bad it is. And unless things change drastically, I don't think we'll know until it's all over.
Post by: Starver on April 17, 2020, 05:05:23 pm
it's kind of pointless without knowing exactly how each individual area was actually enforcing said lock down.Reverse that. The chart (with the caveat you give of obvii6sly being problematic to create, which I agree with) might actually give you an indication of how much each lockdown is enforced that you never had before, through the relative and comparative inflections.
Post by: Max™ on April 17, 2020, 06:19:21 pm
Quote
Area - comparative:
Slightly larger than twice size of Brazil
I think you meant more populous/densely populated, sorry, brain does that thing where it's like "ERROR: larger country is not half as large" when that happens. As for population, 211 million vs 146 million is probably what you were talking about, unless you were actually just thinking about butts, because those brazil asses be phat yo!
As for counts, I just check this regularly: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Post by: hector13 on April 17, 2020, 06:36:42 pm
2 months in and my employer has said all the employees need PPE (provided by them) to work.
aaaaay
Post by: Starver on April 17, 2020, 06:40:32 pm
Post by: hector13 on April 17, 2020, 06:42:24 pm
How long have you been waiting to roll that one out/how many times have you said it?
Post by: Starver on April 17, 2020, 07:01:23 pm
What surprises me is that a) I hadn't thought of it before; b) I have not seen/heard anyone else do that. So obvious, in principle. Or maybe no budding wit thought it worthwhile.
(Nor did I hear any playing with the term applicable to virtually all top-line modern politicians (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy,_politics_and_economics) back when Boris was rather ill. Maybe I just don't hang out in the wrong places that make potentially sick jokes about definitely sick patients.)
[1] The scansion needs a bit of work, but I think I could write it up as a filk lyrics. Not sing it though. Even the bit behind the anonanimity of the speed-changer. And, again, it's surely been done already.
Post by: Jimmy on April 17, 2020, 07:31:42 pm
aaaaayYou might want to check if this is legal in your local state/country.
2 months in and my employer has said all the employees need PPE (provided by them) to work.
aaaaay
For example, in Australia, if an employer requires an employee to wear PPE during their duties, they're obligated to provide the PPE or pay the cost of it (https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/ppe).
I'd suggest a written request along the lines of "Dear management, due to shortages of PPE caused by coronavirus, my local supplier has advised they have no stock of these products available. In order to comply with your new employment requirements, please advise on your preferred location to source reliable supply of PPE. Alternatively, please supply these products directly to our location for staff use in order to meet these requirements."
Under our local laws, this would be enough to launch an unfair dismissal claim against an employer should they create a condition of employment but fail to adequately provide the means to meet that condition.
But again, this is relevant only to my local situation, so it's best you investigate your employee rights where you work.
Post by: Greiger on April 18, 2020, 02:08:12 am
Apparently almost a week ago my friend's dad was sent to the ICU and put on a ventilator with confirmed coronavirus. They were not informed until the (EDIT:had the date wrong seems he just didn't tell me about it for awhile)14th and were told he was resting before that whenever they tried to contact him. Considering as before, no-one was allowed in the building but staff , so it had to be staff that infected him, he's pretty mad at them. Again.
So yes that's now 2 people I know with covid.
Post by: Reelya on April 18, 2020, 02:22:04 am
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/coronavirus-backlash-us-citizens-protest-on-streets-in-zombie-hordes/news-story/ccd6d61a96e13f3c0488b2cc09779964
Democratic states suffering near-riots over lockdowns, even in states with record levels of virus outbreak, where the lockdowns are absolutely necessary, and probably should have been done earlier and in larger force. Also:
Quote
Texas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick earlier called on Americans to sacrifice their lives, telling Fox News that grandparents across the country should be proud to die from the coronavirus if it meant the younger generations could get back to work.
Well MetalSlimeHunt there's the end-of-capitalism uprising you said would happen when the system hits a derail. Naturally, it's more like a fascist one than a socialist one.
Post by: scriver on April 18, 2020, 04:20:12 am
You know I've mentioned how I'm worried for certain countries... well, I've been following the NY Times Coronavirus map and tracker (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/coronavirus-maps.html) and see some worrying trends. Russia has surpassed Brazil's (official!) totals, which is concerning as Brazil is the larger country and they previously had a very similar case count per capita. Brazil's case count has raised somewhat more slowly than Russia, but it's deaths have almost doubled from a week ago it seems like, which is really bad because the ratio of deaths-to-official-cases was really very high, indicating a vastly higher case count than is reported.You have to look at the #of tests in each country. Specially per capita. IIRC Sweden is low on that list. No superstrain, just superspread and infradetection. Which is happening everywhere tbh but the less you test the worse it looks and the worse you control it.
On the topic of vastly higher case counts than reported is Sweden. Sweden has 12,500 cases, but 1333 deaths. Their ratio of cases to deaths is actually much worse than Brazil's right now, and Brazil was though to have several times the official caseload by scientists there. (The ratio of cases to deaths in Brazil is 6.32%, the ratio in Sweden is 10.63%). That's... mind-blowingly bad actually. Implies either the Swedish Healthcare system is 40% worse than Brazil's (which I don't find likely), that the Swedes have some sort of super-strain which is straight up 250% as deadly as the regular virus (which I really really hope is not the case), or they're dramatically undercounting their totals.
Mind you, while Chin and Russia are in the champion's league of releasing incomplete covid19 information, I think every country is doing fairly terrible at reporting the nunbers of infected, dead, tests, and the criteria for each. So take everything with a pinch of salt
Sweden is also particularly bad because a high amount of out positive cases are from elderly (we failed to keep the disease out of our elder homes). Which means a high percentage of those cases are going to lead to death.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 18, 2020, 08:30:09 am
I guess this is what happens when people survive paycheck to paycheck work for companies that survive paycheck to paycheck that are in buildings owned by landlords who survive paycheck to paycheck. Millions of people are out of work and circling the drain of poverty on top of the folk already in poverty
That paycheck protection program? Roughly $350 billion dollars in forgivable loans to small businesses and independent contractors and the like? All gone already. Due to how the bill was written, large chunks of the pot went to big chain restaurants because they don’t have less than 500 employees per location. Meanwhile all those mom and pop businesses are fucked until more funding is approved
Post by: hector13 on April 18, 2020, 08:35:26 am
aaaaayYou might want to check if this is legal in your local state/country.
2 months in and my employer has said all the employees need PPE (provided by them) to work.
aaaaay
For example, in Australia, if an employer requires an employee to wear PPE during their duties, they're obligated to provide the PPE or pay the cost of it (https://www.safeworkaustralia.gov.au/ppe).
I'd suggest a written request along the lines of "Dear management, due to shortages of PPE caused by coronavirus, my local supplier has advised they have no stock of these products available. In order to comply with your new employment requirements, please advise on your preferred location to source reliable supply of PPE. Alternatively, please supply these products directly to our location for staff use in order to meet these requirements."
Under our local laws, this would be enough to launch an unfair dismissal claim against an employer should they create a condition of employment but fail to adequately provide the means to meet that condition.
But again, this is relevant only to my local situation, so it's best you investigate your employee rights where you work.
I live in Wisconsin, which had a Republican governor until 2018 (who was so proud of his union busting he bragged about it when he ran for president), and has a Republican controlled legislature though I’m not sure for how long that’s been there, as well as a conservative majority (recently reduced) on its highest court.
I don’t think the phrase “employment rights” enters a sentence unless the phrase “too socialist” or some such is also present.
Post by: Bumber on April 18, 2020, 08:52:41 am
QuoteTexas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick earlier called on Americans to sacrifice their lives, telling Fox News that grandparents across the country should be proud to die from the coronavirus if it meant the younger generations could get back to work.
That's... not quite what he said. This article (https://www.washingtonpost.com./politics/texas-lt-gov-dan-patrick-comes-under-fire-for-saying-seniors-should-take-a-chance-on-their-own-lives-for-sake-of-grandchildren-during-coronavirus-crisis/2020/03/24/e6f64858-6de6-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html) contains most of the relevant quotes.
Quote
"And you know, Tucker, no one reached out to me and said, 'As a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?' " Patrick said. "And if that's the exchange, I'm all in."
Quote
Patrick said that he will "do everything I can to live" and that if he gets sick, he will seek medical help.
Quote
"Let's get back to living," Patrick said. "Let's be smart about it. And those of us who are 70-plus, we'll take care of ourselves, but don't sacrifice the country. … Our biggest gift we give to our country and our children and our grandchildren is the legacy of our country, and right now, that is at risk. … I think we can get back to work."
Post by: hector13 on April 18, 2020, 09:20:53 am
We don’t know if covid-19 is something you get complete immunity to after you get it, or whether it’s going to be a seasonal or even more frequent occurrence. The latter would be devastating if we let up restrictions too soon.
The economy’s fucked either way. Multitudes getting sick and having to be hospitalized (or die!) in order to entitle the lucky people who only get mild symptoms to continue maintaining their living standards is kind of disgusting.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 18, 2020, 09:24:34 am
Nah, that's not fascism or even a disruption. That's just another chapter in people asserting how housebroken they are for capital.QuoteTexas lieutenant governor Dan Patrick earlier called on Americans to sacrifice their lives, telling Fox News that grandparents across the country should be proud to die from the coronavirus if it meant the younger generations could get back to work.
Well MetalSlimeHunt there's the end-of-capitalism uprising you said would happen when the system hits a derail. Naturally, it's more like a fascist one than a socialist one.
I mean, America will definitely choose fascism when the time comes, but this is no more death cult than normal market conditions.
Post by: Starver on April 18, 2020, 09:37:14 am
Post by: Max™ on April 18, 2020, 04:59:52 pm
Joke: protesting in public with a sign about COVID-19 being a lie
Woke: doing the above WHILE WEARING A MASK
We're up to 735k known cases, 38k known deaths, but only added half a million tests to the 3 million performed earlier this week which suggests a lot of obvious positives are still being tested, as ideally we'd see tests performed going up without a similarly sized bump in positive results.
Even a ratio of 1 positive per 5 tests means we're missing way too many asymptomatic carriers, but hey at least we can enjoy more surges as people protest lockdowns or listen to dumbfucks when told they should totally go back to work soon.
Post by: sluissa on April 18, 2020, 06:17:00 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 18, 2020, 08:16:07 pm
I've noticed the people who were saying "It's not even as deadly as the flu" a few weeks ago have dropped that particular line, but still aren't willing to stop complaining about it.
Most of us here figured out we were wrong months ago. Although we usually went with "deadlier flu" instead of less-deadly.
Post by: delphonso on April 18, 2020, 08:57:18 pm
I've noticed the people who were saying "It's not even as deadly as the flu" a few weeks ago have dropped that particular line, but still aren't willing to stop complaining about it.
I've been watching a guy on facebook post several times a day about the flu compared to covid19. He has shifted from "if social distancing worked, why have so many people died of the flu this year (numbers from somewhere)" all the way to "stay inside and stay safe, everyone! Viruses are nothing to joke about. Covid19 is catching up to the flu and might surpass it"
Post by: sluissa on April 18, 2020, 09:03:13 pm
I've noticed the people who were saying "It's not even as deadly as the flu" a few weeks ago have dropped that particular line, but still aren't willing to stop complaining about it.
Most of us here figured out we were wrong months ago. Although we usually went with "deadlier flu" instead of less-deadly.
I wasn't really referring to anyone here.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 18, 2020, 09:59:57 pm
So ‘worry more about the flu’ wasn’t exactly that long ago
The quarantine days are blending together but honestly not much time has passed since the vast majority of people went into lockdown
Post by: delphonso on April 18, 2020, 10:36:46 pm
I was mocked on here for worrying about this back in late February and lo and behold I found myself living on the periphery of the worst affected area of the worst affected state in the worst affected county of the COVID crisis :P
So ‘worry more about the flu’ wasn’t exactly that long ago
The quarantine days are blending together but honestly not much time has passed since the vast majority of people went into lockdown
Yeah, you really did call it. A bit hysteric, I still believe, but you were far more accurate than I was. Sorry for downplaying you so many times in the past, Tamer.
My homestate of Wisconsin plans to stay closed about 3 weeks longer than the states surrounding it. Of course, my facebook is full of people shouting that this is a violation of rights. I guess people want to die. *shrug*
Post by: Starver on April 18, 2020, 11:10:59 pm
My homestate of Wisconsin plans to stay closed about 3 weeks longer than the states surrounding it. Of course, my facebook is full of people shouting that this is a violation of rights. I guess people want to die. *shrug*When the obedient Wisconsonians finally emerge, and discover their ability to expand over the (even more) desolate wastes of Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan (henceforth known as West Wisconsin, South Wisconsin, Southwest Wisconsin and
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2020, 01:50:08 am
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/man-suffers-repeated-covid19-infection-baffling-doctors/news-story/e48b092859c9bc34ee81268b543b5a2b
After a long-winded intro depicting the nightmare scenario of re-infection, no immunity they finally give us the details:
Quote
The man (who was also suffering from heart problems) tested positive only to be retested after a few days’ recuperation. His result was negative.
The man returned home only to be retested a little over a week a later. This time, the result was positive. Seven days later, he tested negative again. Then, four days after that, he tested positive again.
So ...
day 1: tested positive
day ~4: tested negative
day ~12: tested positive
day ~19: tested negative
day ~23: tested positive
So, it was literally only 3 weeks. By the article's logic, he was "re-infected" with Covid-19 three times in three weeks. Another bullshit story. The tests were just faulty. Also, how were the different tests carried out? For all I know the negative tests could be the nasal swabs and the two final positive tests could both be fecal swabs. The news articles have conflated those before.
Post by: feelotraveller on April 19, 2020, 04:21:32 am
Quote
A 68-year-old man was admitted due to fever, muscle pain, and fatigue. He was initially diagnosed with COVID-19 according to two consecutive positive results for SARS-CoV-2 RNA plus clinical symptoms and chest CT findings, and was discharged from hospital when meeting the discharge criteria, including two consecutive negative results. He was tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA twice during the quarantine and was hospitalized again. He was asymptomatic then, but IgG and IgM were both positive. He was discharged in the context of four consecutive negative test results for SARS-CoV-2 RNA after antiviral treatment. However, he was tested positive once again on the 3rd and 4th day after the second discharge, although still asymptomatic. IgG and IgM were still positive. After antiviral treatment, the results of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were negative in three consecutive retests, and he was finally discharged and quarantined for further surveillance.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-23197/v1 (https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-23197/v1)
While I certainly don't condone the clickbait link, and don't pretend to know what is going on it does seem that there is legitmate concern here. It also seems clear that the 'experts' quoted later in the news.com.au article you linked didn't bother to actually read the source paper either. :P
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 19, 2020, 04:55:35 am
The authors say it themselves in the discussion and for what I've seen this is the most common interpretation of these cases.
Quote
Given the possibility of recurrently positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA, especially in immunocompromised patients, and the uncertainty of infectivity of recurrently positive patients, the discharged patients should continue to be quarantined for at least 14 days and monitored for SARS-CoV-2 RNA repeatedly, and be wary of becoming a virus carrier and thereby spreading the virus to others.So the issue is recurrent positivity, more than recurrent infection.
They also talk a lot about the patient being immunocompromised, and this affecting prolonged viral positivity.... while that IS something you do see with immunocompromised patients and other viruses (eg the flu), I'm not really sure why they say the guy is immunocompromised as they dont mention any of the usual suspects in his clinical background. I assume they might mean the lymphocyte counts they did during admission? But it's kind of common to see drops during infections, especially severe ones, and was widely reported as a common finding in covid19🤔. I'm pretty sure some of the early score tables for ER used it as a potential sign.
Anyway:
These other guys posted a report on pcr positivity a while ago
https://t.co/DA7nyEkSA9?amp=1
It fluctuates up and down. Close to the threshold it creates problems... its an open question whether these guys are infectious too but I dont think anyone wants to risk it.
Post by: feelotraveller on April 19, 2020, 05:14:25 am
But that's basically what Reelya said. His IgM was still positive, so he never seroconverted in the first place. He tested negative foe pcr for four days, then was positive again. It's the same as the other cases: not a reinfection, but prolonged viral DNA shedding.
The authors say it themselves in the discussion and for what I've seen this is the most common interpretation of these cases.QuoteGiven the possibility of recurrently positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA, especially in immunocompromised patients, and the uncertainty of infectivity of recurrently positive patients, the discharged patients should continue to be quarantined for at least 14 days and monitored for SARS-CoV-2 RNA repeatedly, and be wary of becoming a virus carrier and thereby spreading the virus to others.So the issue is recurrent positivity, more than recurrent infection.
They also talk a lot about the patient being immunocompromised, and this affecting prolonged viral positivity.... while that IS something you do see with immunocompromised patients and other viruses (eg the flu), I'm not really sure why they say the guy is immunocompromised as they dont mention any of the usual suspects in his clinical background. I assume they might mean the lymphocyte counts they did during admission? But it's kind of common to see drops during infections, especially severe ones, and was widely reported as a common finding in covid19🤔. I'm pretty sure some of the early score tables for ER used it as a potential sign.
Anyway:
These other guys posted a report on pcr positivity a while ago
https://t.co/DA7nyEkSA9?amp=1
It fluctuates up and down. Close to the threshold it creates problems... its an open question whether these guys are infectious too but I dont think anyone wants to risk it.
Yes, I broadly agree with you. (Not sure what Reelya meant with 'The tests were just faulty' nor why the multiple consecutive tests were not mentioned.) Certainly we all agree that the Murdoch gutter press article is a piece of carp.
It is worth noting that while recurrent positivity is postulated as the most likely scenario the authors of that paper also state:
"The recurrence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity may be related to the biological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, underlying diseases, clinical status, immune function, and sampling, processing and detecting of samples. In addition, re-infection or false negativity sometimes for nasopharyngeal test cannot be ruled out."
Post by: NJW2000 on April 19, 2020, 05:16:06 am
We... haven't been doing that. We are living in a village none of us were born in right now though, so there's some resentment about that. Interesting development.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 19, 2020, 05:20:36 am
Apparently someone called the police on our family, for commuting to a city and back. UK.People are assholes worldwide.
We... haven't been doing that. We are living in a village none of us were born in right now though, so there's some resentment about that. Interesting development.
Did you hear about the healthcare workers who were getting notes underneath their doors asking them to leave?
Post by: scriver on April 19, 2020, 05:43:54 am
But if you're just staying where you actually live. Then they're supreme assholes.
Post by: NJW2000 on April 19, 2020, 06:16:31 am
If its an honest mistake, that's one thing. Otherwise that sort of aggression should be worked out via extreme social snubs, insulting notes and egged houses, not wasting police time.
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2020, 06:29:13 am
Yes, I broadly agree with you. (Not sure what Reelya meant with 'The tests were just faulty' nor why the multiple consecutive tests were not mentioned.) Certainly we all agree that the Murdoch gutter press article is a piece of carp.
What I mean is that the tests are inherently faulty, if they don't accurately measure the thing they're intended to measure.
You can have a test that "works" but if it gives inconsistent readings then it doesn't pass muster as being a test of thing you're really saying it's for. Whether there were consecutive tests or not isn't really relevant. If that doesn't give them the information they're after, then they're taking the wrong measurements by definition.
EDIT: As for the fact that he showed negative for multiple tests before showing positive for a couple, then negative for a couple of tests. I'd call this sample / selection bias. They've tested millions of people, this guy could have this pattern of test results purely by chance. If there's some % chance of a false negative, then surely if you test a large enough number of people some amount will have multiple false negatives in a row, and some smaller number of people will have this happen more than once. It's like shuffling a deck of cards then drawing all four aces off the top, and telling people about that, but excluding mention the 3.5 million other shuffles and draws you had to go through before getting that one result.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 19, 2020, 06:34:28 am
That's kind of a very wrong reading. All tests have detection thresholds and accuracy parameters. You have to be aware of the limitations of the test and act accordingly. You wont find 100% reliable information anywhere, much less in medicineYes, I broadly agree with you. (Not sure what Reelya meant with 'The tests were just faulty' nor why the multiple consecutive tests were not mentioned.) Certainly we all agree that the Murdoch gutter press article is a piece of carp.
What I mean is that the tests are inherently faulty, if they don't accurately measure the thing they're intended to measure.
You can have a test that "works" but if it gives inconsistent readings then it doesn't pass muster as being a test of thing you're really saying it's for. Whether there were consecutive tests or not isn't really relevant. If that doesn't give them the information they're after, then they're taking the wrong measurements by definition.
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2020, 06:50:57 am
Yeah you're probably right. I added in a bit in an edit that's probably more on the money. If you sample enough people and there's some error rate, virtually every pattern of results would have to appear at least once. Which really shows the fallacy of basing an entire theory off one result out of millions of samples.That's kind of a very wrong reading. All tests have detection thresholds and accuracy parameters. You have to be aware of the limitations of the test and act accordingly. You wont find 100% reliable information anywhere, much less in medicineYes, I broadly agree with you. (Not sure what Reelya meant with 'The tests were just faulty' nor why the multiple consecutive tests were not mentioned.) Certainly we all agree that the Murdoch gutter press article is a piece of carp.
What I mean is that the tests are inherently faulty, if they don't accurately measure the thing they're intended to measure.
You can have a test that "works" but if it gives inconsistent readings then it doesn't pass muster as being a test of thing you're really saying it's for. Whether there were consecutive tests or not isn't really relevant. If that doesn't give them the information they're after, then they're taking the wrong measurements by definition.
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2020, 08:38:13 am
We... haven't been doing that. We are living in a village none of us were born in right now though, so there's some resentment about that. Interesting development.If your family hasn't been living within the same four stone walls (and probably under exactly the same thatching of the roof) for 300 years, how dare you say you're local to the area!
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2020, 09:29:08 am
Post by: Iduno on April 19, 2020, 10:57:09 am
I was mocked on here for worrying about this back in late February and lo and behold I found myself living on the periphery of the worst affected area of the worst affected state in the worst affected county of the COVID crisis :P
So ‘worry more about the flu’ wasn’t exactly that long ago
The quarantine days are blending together but honestly not much time has passed since the vast majority of people went into lockdown
Yeah, you really did call it. A bit hysteric, I still believe, but you were far more accurate than I was. Sorry for downplaying you so many times in the past, Tamer.
My homestate of Wisconsin plans to stay closed about 3 weeks longer than the states surrounding it. Of course, my facebook is full of people shouting that this is a violation of rights. I guess people want to die. *shrug*
Yeah, but they also held an in-person election despite the certainty it would kill a lot of people. Or because of the certainty.
Post by: hector13 on April 19, 2020, 11:03:24 am
I was mocked on here for worrying about this back in late February and lo and behold I found myself living on the periphery of the worst affected area of the worst affected state in the worst affected county of the COVID crisis :P
So ‘worry more about the flu’ wasn’t exactly that long ago
The quarantine days are blending together but honestly not much time has passed since the vast majority of people went into lockdown
Yeah, you really did call it. A bit hysteric, I still believe, but you were far more accurate than I was. Sorry for downplaying you so many times in the past, Tamer.
My homestate of Wisconsin plans to stay closed about 3 weeks longer than the states surrounding it. Of course, my facebook is full of people shouting that this is a violation of rights. I guess people want to die. *shrug*
Yeah, but they also held an in-person election despite the certainty it would kill a lot of people. Or because of the certainty.
Republicans and conservatives certainly weren’t all that concerned about a virulent pandemic. The governor at least was trying to be sensible and delay it, or at least get everyone an absentee ballot.
One hopes this comes back to bite them in November.
Post by: Teneb on April 19, 2020, 11:08:39 am
A photographer friend of mine took pictures.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: hector13 on April 19, 2020, 11:16:12 am
A quick read through on Wikipedia would imply this means people are protesting in favour of dictatorship and removal of their rights?
Post by: Iduno on April 19, 2020, 11:17:43 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
That's as good a use of pictures as a link as I've come up with.
Edit:
One hopes this comes back to bite them in November.
Ameripol, but that would be more of a threat if there were 2 different sides.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 19, 2020, 11:20:37 am
Shortly afterwards the Inner Affairs Minister claimed it had been a "lapsus" on part of the officer.
Post by: Teneb on April 19, 2020, 11:31:30 am
...Yes. They furiously masturbate to the thought of having their rights removed. It's mind-boggling.
A quick read through on Wikipedia would imply this means people are protesting in favour of dictatorship and removal of their rights?
Not exactly surprising since 60% of my city voted for the Bozo.
Post by: Iduno on April 19, 2020, 11:51:39 am
...Yes. They furiously masturbate to the thought of having their rights removed. It's mind-boggling.
A quick read through on Wikipedia would imply this means people are protesting in favour of dictatorship and removal of their rights?
Not exactly surprising since 60% of my city voted for the Bozo.
If I understand their thought process, it is: You can take away my rights, as long as it hits someone else harder. If someone else is hit harder, that means I'm better than those people. Here is a list of types of people I want to be better than.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 19, 2020, 12:47:35 pm
But that's basically what Reelya said. His IgM was still positive, so he never seroconverted in the first place. He tested negative foe pcr for four days, then was positive again. It's the same as the other cases: not a reinfection, but prolonged viral DNA shedding.
The authors say it themselves in the discussion and for what I've seen this is the most common interpretation of these cases.QuoteGiven the possibility of recurrently positive SARS-CoV-2 RNA, especially in immunocompromised patients, and the uncertainty of infectivity of recurrently positive patients, the discharged patients should continue to be quarantined for at least 14 days and monitored for SARS-CoV-2 RNA repeatedly, and be wary of becoming a virus carrier and thereby spreading the virus to others.So the issue is recurrent positivity, more than recurrent infection.
They also talk a lot about the patient being immunocompromised, and this affecting prolonged viral positivity.... while that IS something you do see with immunocompromised patients and other viruses (eg the flu), I'm not really sure why they say the guy is immunocompromised as they dont mention any of the usual suspects in his clinical background. I assume they might mean the lymphocyte counts they did during admission? But it's kind of common to see drops during infections, especially severe ones, and was widely reported as a common finding in covid19🤔. I'm pretty sure some of the early score tables for ER used it as a potential sign.
Anyway:
These other guys posted a report on pcr positivity a while ago
https://t.co/DA7nyEkSA9?amp=1
It fluctuates up and down. Close to the threshold it creates problems... its an open question whether these guys are infectious too but I dont think anyone wants to risk it.
Corrigenda: with both IgG and IgM he HAS mounted an immune response. I must have been asleep while typing that.
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2020, 01:21:36 pm
...Yes. They furiously masturbate to the thought of having their rights removed. It's mind-boggling.
A quick read through on Wikipedia would imply this means people are protesting in favour of dictatorship and removal of their rights?
Not exactly surprising since 60% of my city voted for the Bozo.
Loyal fascist bootlickers assume the draconian law will apply to everyone except themselves.
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2020, 01:52:56 pm
Well, my home city had a fascist protest against social isolation. Also had large cards with calls for the return of AI-5 (a dictatorship law that basically made things pretty damn bad).I didn't actually click whose post it was I was reading, for a moment. I was expecting the usual kinds of flags you get in the Deep South. Then realised it was even deeper south than that! ;)
A photographer friend of mine took pictures.
[...]
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2020, 02:10:07 pm
If I understand their thought process, it is: You can take away my rights, as long as it hits someone else harder. If someone else is hit harder, that means I'm better than those people. Here is a list of types of people I want to be better than.I think it's related to the whole "I don't like Something. So I'll support anyone that changes absolutely everything in the hope that my Something is no longer an issue." (Or promises to. Or annoys absolutely anyone who likes the Something, or any other non-Something thing regardless.)
Fanatical Somethingelseism. Which (if you'll excuse an off-topic topicality) is as much a condition that "Giant Meteor 2020" fulfils for some (who were never keen enough on Clinton 2016 to avert the current state of play) as "Trump 2016" fulfilled for others (who may still be content to wait for their 'hero' to enact every last vestige of butthurt they think he's capable of).
Post by: WealthyRadish on April 19, 2020, 02:20:57 pm
First they went after some other people, and I said nothing or maybe I actually even voted for the guy if we're being totally honest (but who's keeping score),
Then it worked, they stopped, and everything was fine
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2020, 02:49:30 pm
It's a stressful time, but there's no need to get carried away with these sorts of divisive labels and rhetoric.Although I clearly have an opinion, and I know I clearly have an opinion, I did carefully try to maintain balance in that description between those who want some act of fate to topple Trump and those who still want Trump to topple the things the first lot hold dear. Because I didn't just want to solely ascribe such weird motivations to the faction that I actually think has the weirder motivations.
There are nihilists on both sides, you might say. And I won't comment any further in this context.
Post by: misko27 on April 19, 2020, 03:02:40 pm
Hence that one protest in Texas that had dozens show up at Austin. Dozens! A whole 100 people! (Wow!)
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2020, 03:05:13 pm
It's a stressful time, but there's no need to get carried away with these sorts of divisive labels and rhetoric.
I can see where your coming from, but in the context of Brazil, someone calling for the return of AI-5 is equivalent to a German calling for the reinstatement of the SS and the gas chambers. Calling them a "Nazi" in that context would not be inflammatory - it's just descriptive. In the Brazilian context, calling someone who promotes the return of AI-5 a fascist, is similarly merely descriptive.
See Hitler's Enabling Act of 1933 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enabling_Act_of_1933) for reference. Brazil's AI-5 act allowed basically the same things the Enabling Act did for Hitler. AI-5 was the law law allowing arbitrary arrest and torture of dissidents (effectively: anybody), and for the president to remove any elected official from office, and to overrule the congress, constitution and court system. This law was effectively the specific tool to turn the nation into a one-party fascist state (by removing all opposition candidates from office and blocking them from running again), so I make no bones about calling the advocates for this law fascists, because they are that by definition. It's the same law that is recognized as formally declaring the dictatorship in Nazi Germany in '33.
EDIT: maybe it was inflammatory of me to call them "fascist bootlickers" but I don't really think so. I called them that because what they're actually asking for (whether fully understood or not) is the reinstatement of the one-party police state, and their obvious assumption is that they'll be the loyal faithful so they won't be targeted. This is why they are bootlickers.
Post by: WealthyRadish on April 19, 2020, 04:31:39 pm
Post by: NJW2000 on April 19, 2020, 05:46:19 pm
First they went after some other people, and I said nothing or maybe I actually even voted for the guy if we're being totally honest (but who's keeping score),
Then it worked, they stopped, and everything was fine
A) Where did you steal this from
B) If it's yours, can I steal it?
Post by: Iduno on April 19, 2020, 07:41:55 pm
It was a crappy joke imitating what the other spineless bootlickers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_...) are saying while enabling fascists like Bolsonaro and the US president.
I don't know how you managed to make such an obvious joke, and still get several people to think it's serious.
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2020, 08:52:56 pm
Post by: thompson on April 19, 2020, 08:53:15 pm
It was a crappy joke imitating what the other spineless bootlickers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_...) are saying while enabling fascists like Bolsonaro and the US president.
I don't know how you managed to make such an obvious joke, and still get several people to think it's serious.
The comment did throw me off a bit. The call for civility seemed ostensibly reasonable, but it was juxtaposed with the joke at the end so I really had no idea how to parse it. I suppose I’m not accustomed to parody of eloquent fascists.
Post by: scriver on April 20, 2020, 12:36:54 am
Poe
Dameron
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 20, 2020, 12:43:33 am
DametequilaPoe
Dameron
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 20, 2020, 01:29:37 am
https://t.co/EXLSAL8EhU?amp=1
Post by: mko on April 20, 2020, 04:12:39 am
https://t.co/EXLSAL8EhU?amp=1
Can you give the real link? This looks like something leading to totally.not.virus.ru
Post by: feelotraveller on April 20, 2020, 04:24:03 am
https://t.co/EXLSAL8EhU?amp=1
Can you give the real link? This looks like something leading to totally.not.virus.ru
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa460/5822175 (https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa460/5822175)
Post by: Starver on April 20, 2020, 04:52:35 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 20, 2020, 07:28:38 am
For more than a week, hospital admissions and death numbers have been dropping.
Yesterday saw only 69 dead and 75 new hospital admissions.One day before that, there still were 83 dead and 110 hospital admissions.
The total number of confirmed corona deaths in the Netherlands is now 3751
Post by: Iduno on April 20, 2020, 08:26:37 am
I'd give numbers on how well/badly things are going, but I only know one person who has gotten tested.
Post by: Frumple on April 20, 2020, 09:07:53 am
Things are starting to look somewhat hopeful over here.Just. Is there any indication the unconfirmed ones are also stabilizing?
For more than a week, hospital admissions and death numbers have been dropping.
Yesterday saw only 69 dead and 75 new hospital admissions.One day before that, there still were 83 dead and 110 hospital admissions.
The total number of confirmed corona deaths in the Netherlands is now 3751
If there's a single thing consistent about almost every country's response it's been not fucking testing enough to have a genuine finger on the pulse of the crow plague. Reductions in confirmed deaths and/or hospitalization figures are only particularly comforting if other indicators, what little is available to track unrecognized cases, are following a similar course and there's no substantial indication of a second (or third, or whatever) wave incoming.
Maybe the Netherlands are actually staying on top of things on that front, I'unno, but at the moment basically nothing about official numbers brings me any goddamn comfort whatsoever, and I can't see that changing until legitimately aggressive testing and tracing efforts are implemented. Garbage in, garbage out -- your data is at best as good as your data collection.
Post by: mko on April 20, 2020, 09:16:42 am
Also, I finally found collection how testing is going in Poland - http://covid.sikorski.pw/tests.html
Private page because official one is not existing or at least I failed to find it (data collected from official sources, in this case an official twitter account).
Post by: Starver on April 20, 2020, 09:27:20 am
For all positives discovered (and a similar sub-proportion of those that are negative) delve deeper by contract tracing and with a finer mesh of randomised testing, repeating as suitable. Use these results to extrapolate and interpolate (where not otherwise fully investigated) and thus derive much of the missing and assumed data needed.
(Of course this won't happen. Probably not even a catch/recatch variation.)
Post by: misko27 on April 20, 2020, 10:26:24 am
In America, rapidly rising in the "Infected per capita" count is Marion County, Ohio, which has suddenly and rapidly risen to be the second most infected county in the entire country after Rockland County New York, with 2,800 confirmed cases per capita (1,834 overall), and doubling every day and a half (added 851 cases yesterday). The spike is mostly linked to Marion Correctional jail, where 75% of the inmate population has tested positive.
Post by: Starver on April 20, 2020, 10:54:49 am
with 2,800 confirmed cases per capitaFor a moment, there, I thought you were saying that for every person, there were nearly three thousand positive results. That's overtesting!
Post by: Iduno on April 20, 2020, 11:29:47 am
with 2,800 confirmed cases per capitaFor a moment, there, I thought you were saying that for every person, there were nearly three thousand positive results. That's overtesting!
Reminds me of Spiders Georg and statistical outliers.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 20, 2020, 12:57:08 pm
what’s Spiders Georg?with 2,800 confirmed cases per capitaFor a moment, there, I thought you were saying that for every person, there were nearly three thousand positive results. That's overtesting!
Reminds me of Spiders Georg and statistical outliers.
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2020, 02:06:48 pm
what’s Spiders Georg?with 2,800 confirmed cases per capitaFor a moment, there, I thought you were saying that for every person, there were nearly three thousand positive results. That's overtesting!
Reminds me of Spiders Georg and statistical outliers.
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=spiders+georg
Post by: mko on April 20, 2020, 03:05:58 pm
Quote
Spiders Georg is a fictional character that was created on Tumblr as a joke about a false statistic regarding the average number of spiders a person may consume each year.
(...)
Max Lavergne submitted a blog post about the often-quoted factoid, asserting that people eating "three spiders a year" is actually a statistical error due to a man named "Spiders Georg" who consumes "over 10,000" of the arachnids each day.
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/spiders-georg
Post by: martinuzz on April 20, 2020, 05:18:12 pm
A barrel of oil now costs minus 40 dollars.
Oil producers will now have to pay customers to take their oil; the alternative is worse, if they can't lose their oil, they will have to shut down their oil drilling facilities, which costs a lot, and will cost even more to reanimate them later.
Post by: mko on April 20, 2020, 05:24:29 pm
For the first time in history, oil price has dropped below zero.Note that it applies only to oil in USA and more specifically oil to be deliver at oil hub Cushing, Oklahoma. It has capacity to store about 8 days of USA production.
A barrel of oil now costs minus 40 dollars.
Oil producers will now have to pay customers to take their oil; the alternative is worse, if they can't lose their oil, they will have to shut down their oil drilling facilities, which costs a lot, and will cost even more to reanimate them later.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/stock-market-live-trading-coronavirus.html
Post by: A Thing on April 20, 2020, 05:34:44 pm
Hope whatever forumites we got there and apparently Tennessee don't get fucked by this. Jesus Christ. I mean, there hasn't even really been a dip in cases in Georgia as far as I know.
Post by: hector13 on April 20, 2020, 07:17:30 pm
However, I think that people literally risking their lives and those of their loved ones after a month of being cooped up is proof that very few people would ever sit on unemployment benefits if the alternative is gainful employment.
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2020, 07:34:13 pm
So much for Nebraskans being responsible though. Shit, I've had this group of rednecks camped out in the grass across the street from my apartment for the last two weeks when it's nice. There's usually 4 to 8 of them sitting around in lawn chairs drinking beer, sitting next to some sign they put out while they're there. I can't get a good look at the sign, but based on the red and blue text on a white background, it's more than likely political. No telling if they're regulars of the bar that shares the parking lot they camp out by, or if they just decided to set up shop there in the grass.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 20, 2020, 08:39:57 pm
SPREADER!
SUPER!
SPREADER!
Post by: Reelya on April 20, 2020, 09:58:42 pm
Post by: ZBridges on April 20, 2020, 10:09:54 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 20, 2020, 10:23:19 pm
So yeah, he probably can, especially given that there's an actual state of emergency and this isn't exclusively a fit of racist nationalist pique. I mean, it'll turn into that when he never rescinds the change, but right now I'd expect it to pass muster.
Post by: Bumber on April 21, 2020, 04:16:42 am
However, I think that people literally risking their lives and those of their loved ones after a month of being cooped up is proof that very few people would ever sit on unemployment benefits if the alternative is gainful employment.
You'd be able to go where you please if it were just unemployment, though. Many beaches and parks are shut down right now.
Post by: Jopax on April 21, 2020, 04:31:35 am
While at the same time as he's telling Americans to walk around spitting in each other's faces, Trump's just announced a complete suspension of all immigration into the USA.
To be fair though, I really doubt many people would want to get into the USA right now, what with the whole country becoming a slow-motion trainwreck of one idiotic decision after another :V
Post by: Zangi on April 21, 2020, 01:42:51 pm
It literally takes years to get approved under normal circumstances. So just stopping it now brings many questions to whatever the implementation may be.While at the same time as he's telling Americans to walk around spitting in each other's faces, Trump's just announced a complete suspension of all immigration into the USA.
To be fair though, I really doubt many people would want to get into the USA right now, what with the whole country becoming a slow-motion trainwreck of one idiotic decision after another :V
Post by: martinuzz on April 21, 2020, 02:39:51 pm
In fact, it even does more harm than good; amongst those treated with it, there were more deaths than amongst the control group that got regular treatment.
Researchers analyzed the medical data of 368 male veterans who had been treated, and either cured or died in various hospitals for veterans in the US.
Out of the group treated with HCQ, 28% died, versus 11% in the control group.
Impeach him now, for trying to actively get people killed by advertising lethal medication.
Post by: Starver on April 21, 2020, 02:45:29 pm
So, is it:
- Ports and runways closed to any international arrivals, no matter of passport.
- US citizens only.
- A (business, etc) subset of visa travel only.
- No prearranged 'leave to stay' inward travel.
- Halting all in-process roads towards residency/naturalisation.
- Halting the start of any such application.
- Just being more aggressive with 'defaulting' and deporting anyone* already in the US who is already being stymied in their honest attempt to make defacto residency into a dejure one.
- Doing nothing new, just the same old shit and continuing the the half-hearted border health checks, but inciting people (for and against) with Bigly Words (and some televised scrawling on documents laid upon the Resolute Desk) that cause more internal unrest than 'solve' anything on the viral side of things.
* - who is in the usual demographics, that is.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 21, 2020, 02:57:18 pm
A US study amongst veterans has shown that the medicine that Trump has been advertising, hydroxychloroquine, is not helpful against Covid-19.It wasnt a real control group. This was all retrospective. Odds are the ones who got HCQ were sicker to begin with.
In fact, it even does more harm than good; amongst those treated with it, there were more deaths than amongst the control group that got regular treatment.
Researchers analyzed the medical data of 368 male veterans who had been treated, and either cured or died in various hospitals for veterans in the US.
Out of the group treated with HCQ, 28% died, versus 11% in the control group.
Impeach him now, for trying to actively get people killed by advertising lethal medication.
But... there have been a couple of randomized trials that have shown little to no benefit. So.. yeah it kind of sucks
Post by: nenjin on April 21, 2020, 02:59:38 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 21, 2020, 03:08:08 pm
The fun part will be now that the Qanon cultists will declare a coverup and start drinking aquarium cleaner en mass to protect themselves from covid, except covid also isn't real and is a coverup by the deep state pedophiles but also a coverup by Trump to mass arrest and execute the deep state pedophiles.
Thus is the world.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 21, 2020, 03:12:39 pm
On the other hand severe cases of covid are more frequent among people with CV disease, which might in turn have greater toxicity.... 🤷🏻♂️
This is why you need randomized trials really. Otherwise you'll just wonder whether thar shit works at all.
Post by: nenjin on April 21, 2020, 04:37:13 pm
Malaria medication is not exactly famous for its lack of severe side effects.
The fun part will be now that the Qanon cultists will declare a coverup and start drinking aquarium cleaner en mass to protect themselves from covid, except covid also isn't real and is a coverup by the deep state pedophiles but also a coverup by Trump to mass arrest and execute the deep state pedophiles.
Thus is the world.
The problem solves itself, no? Most people that have drank aquarium cleaner have died.
Post by: Iduno on April 21, 2020, 04:39:51 pm
Malaria medication is not exactly famous for its lack of severe side effects.
The fun part will be now that the Qanon cultists will declare a coverup and start drinking aquarium cleaner en mass to protect themselves from covid, except covid also isn't real and is a coverup by the deep state pedophiles but also a coverup by Trump to mass arrest and execute the deep state pedophiles.
Thus is the world.
The problem solves itself, no? Most people that have drank aquarium cleaner have died.
Sadly, it wasn't most. Most are too stupid to die.
Post by: hector13 on April 21, 2020, 04:47:50 pm
Malaria medication is not exactly famous for its lack of severe side effects.
The fun part will be now that the Qanon cultists will declare a coverup and start drinking aquarium cleaner en mass to protect themselves from covid, except covid also isn't real and is a coverup by the deep state pedophiles but also a coverup by Trump to mass arrest and execute the deep state pedophiles.
Thus is the world.
The problem solves itself, no? Most people that have drank aquarium cleaner have died.
Sadly, it wasn't most. Most are too stupid to die.
Which is quite lucky, considering how stupid you have to be in the first place to do it.
Post by: scriver on April 22, 2020, 02:16:00 am
A US study amongst veterans has shown that the medicine that Trump has been advertising, hydroxychloroquine, is not helpful against Covid-19.
In fact, it even does more harm than good; amongst those treated with it, there were more deaths than amongst the control group that got regular treatment.
Researchers analyzed the medical data of 368 male veterans who had been treated, and either cured or died in various hospitals for veterans in the US.
Out of the group treated with HCQ, 28% died, versus 11% in the control group.
Impeach him now, for trying to actively get people killed by advertising lethal medication.
Were the control group also veterans? Because while I'm not certain, my impression is that soldiers smoke a lot, which means veterans probably smoke a lot, which puts the group firmly into risk territory, right?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 22, 2020, 02:28:06 am
So, yeah, this study was just as flawed as the original studies supporting hydroxychloroquine were 🤷🏻♂️
IMO it's unlikely it's killing 28% of patients. But the last few trials suggest it's of little benefit, too
Post by: wierd on April 22, 2020, 02:48:02 am
From what I have read so far, it can do a number of very bad things in your body, and interfering with the processes that lead to those bad things happening have other, equally bad things that will happen--
For instance, one of the bad things that can happen is a cytokine storm, which is basically your immune system going batshit kookoo after mass cell death. Under better conditions, you would want to isolate the patient and bring the immune system under control with suppressant medications--- but---
Another bad thing the virus does, is DIRECT tissue damage to alveoli-- the little sacs in your lung tissue that actually perform gas-exchange. Suppression of the immune response to mitigate the massive collateral damage of a cytokine storm would result in this infection running roughshod all over the patient's lungs, rendering them too diseased for continued function...
*IF* it existed, a receptor site blocking agent (To prevent viral adhesion, and thus slow or strongly disrupt viral infection spread in the host), along with immune suppression to sane levels, could help such patients-- but we don't have such a product yet.
The logical best treatment at large, would be wide-spread vaccination to create "hostile hosts", and thus reduce R0, coupled with receptor site blockers for acute ICU patients. Best estimates place those at 1 year away, with heavily rushed trials that are going to be dubious, because of how rushed they are.
People do not understand what this shit is, and do not understand why this talk of re-opening the economy is just fucking madness.
Post by: Reelya on April 22, 2020, 05:10:43 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 22, 2020, 08:26:55 am
People do not understand what this shit is, and do not understand why this talk of re-opening the economy is just fucking madness.To be fair, not re-opening the economy is also madness - eventually people will go batshit from sitting around doing nothing all day, and we'll go from these media-blurb protests to something more destructive. Idleness being the devil's playground and all that.
They key thing here is striking a balance - and unfortunately I don't think anyone knows what that point of balance is.
Post by: Reelya on April 22, 2020, 08:33:58 am
Post by: Frumple on April 22, 2020, 08:43:34 am
They key thing here is striking a balance - and unfortunately I don't think anyone knows what that point of balance is.I mean, actually we fucking know what that point is. Around a 2% positivity rate for testing and testing aggressive enough to not miss anyone, on top of stringent quarantine for infected and the means to do so without losing home or hearth, plus solid protection for workers on the job both in terms of equipment and behavior of them and any members of the public they interact with. And a smattering of other stuff.
"When is it more or less safe to open things up to economic activity" isn't fucking rocket science, it's just doing what you should be fucking doing in the face of a goddamn plague. Which is known behavior. There's just a lot of fucknuts that don't want to bloody do it.
Post by: Teneb on April 22, 2020, 09:06:05 am
"But muh profits!"They key thing here is striking a balance - and unfortunately I don't think anyone knows what that point of balance is.I mean, actually we fucking know what that point is. Around a 2% positivity rate for testing and testing aggressive enough to not miss anyone, on top of stringent quarantine for infected and the means to do so without losing home or hearth, plus solid protection for workers on the job both in terms of equipment and behavior of them and any members of the public they interact with. And a smattering of other stuff.
"When is it more or less safe to open things up to economic activity" isn't fucking rocket science, it's just doing what you should be fucking doing in the face of a goddamn plague. Which is known behavior. There's just a lot of fucknuts that don't want to bloody do it.
Post by: Frumple on April 22, 2020, 09:10:47 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 22, 2020, 10:41:33 am
I mean, actually we fucking know what that point is. Around a 2% positivity rate for testing and testing aggressive enough to not miss anyone, on top of stringent quarantine for infected and the means to do so without losing home or hearth, plus solid protection for workers on the job both in terms of equipment and behavior of them and any members of the public they interact with. And a smattering of other stuff.Can you make that not sound condescending? That tone doesn't help.
"When is it more or less safe to open things up to economic activity" isn't fucking rocket science, it's just doing what you should be fucking doing in the face of a goddamn plague. Which is known behavior. There's just a lot of fucknuts that don't want to bloody do it.
That said, while I think that is possibly a solution, it doesn't address "balance" (people want to go to work because their bored, not merely because they aren't paid).
It's also not practical at all. I mean are you really suggesting that we forcibly incarcerate people for quarantine? Because that's realistically the only way to do what you suggest, and I'm sorry but I just don't support that even if it would reduce the spread of the disease. I guarantee you will see armed violence if you start to forcibly quarantine people in the US.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 22, 2020, 10:59:32 am
Yes. Thats exactly what is being suggested. And there are precedents in the US. Some of them famous. You dont really think Typhoid Mary ended up confined out of her own free will do you?I mean, actually we fucking know what that point is. Around a 2% positivity rate for testing and testing aggressive enough to not miss anyone, on top of stringent quarantine for infected and the means to do so without losing home or hearth, plus solid protection for workers on the job both in terms of equipment and behavior of them and any members of the public they interact with. And a smattering of other stuff.Can you make that not sound condescending? That tone doesn't help.
"When is it more or less safe to open things up to economic activity" isn't fucking rocket science, it's just doing what you should be fucking doing in the face of a goddamn plague. Which is known behavior. There's just a lot of fucknuts that don't want to bloody do it.
That said, while I think that is possibly a solution, it doesn't address "balance" (people want to go to work because their bored, not merely because they aren't paid).
It's also not practical at all. I mean are you really suggesting that we forcibly incarcerate people for quarantine? Because that's realistically the only way to do what you suggest, and I'm sorry but I just don't support that even if it would reduce the spread of the disease. I guarantee you will see armed violence if you start to forcibly quarantine people in the US.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 22, 2020, 11:01:17 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 22, 2020, 11:10:18 am
I thought we just had the weak-sauce "if you go out we'll give you a ticket" kind of enforcement.
But yes, the majority of people are peaceable.
But if you have someone get beat, tazed, or shot because they are running around... especially if there are racial aspects, watch out...
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 22, 2020, 11:25:44 am
The mammon humping death cultists are trying to multiclass into nurgle worshippers, yes. That's a fair amount of where it's coming from :-\I have no idea what you are referencing here, I remember Nurgle from the Grimm Adventures of Billy and Mandy, but the cultists are confusing
Post by: TamerVirus on April 22, 2020, 11:34:10 am
I remember Nurgle from the Grimm Adventures of Billy and MandyThis hurts on an almost visceral level
Post by: wierd on April 22, 2020, 11:48:34 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nergal
The primary reference for Nurgle (diff spelling) is from the warhammer 40k universe.
https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Nurgle
Post by: Iduno on April 22, 2020, 12:13:30 pm
I thought we just had the weak-sauce "if you go out we'll give you a ticket" kind of enforcement.
I don't think we have that, either.
Also, https://twitter.com/MrT/status/1252990795059060739 (https://twitter.com/MrT/status/1252990795059060739)
Post by: Frumple on April 22, 2020, 01:20:02 pm
Can you make that not sound condescending? That tone doesn't help.Mate, that tone isn't condescension, it's extremely intense frustration. There's a lot of people going around spreading horseshit right now about how what we need to do to properly manage a fucking plague is somehow bloody unknowable, when it's not. At all. The right course of action is friggin' solved on the top level of things (test hard, limit movement and means of spread, support your population), it's just logistics and people refusing to do it that's the actual trouble.
Quote
That said, while I think that is possibly a solution, it doesn't address "balance" (people want to go to work because their bored, not merely because they aren't paid).It absolutely address balance. People get to go to work to alleviate boredom, without getting people killed, when the situation is such they can go to work without it getting people killed. Which means identification of infected individuals and control of their movement, management of protective equipment, adapting new behavior to prevent spread, and so on.
Quote
It's also not practical at all. I mean are you really suggesting that we forcibly incarcerate people for quarantine?Mandated quarantines have already happened in the US -- there were stories earlier this year of poor bastards getting held in the hospital for days/weeks and then getting the bill for it shoved up their ass. Some other nations, some of them even democracies, also seem to be managing something vaguely in that direction.
And absolutely, if you're confirmed positive you should be locked down pretty hard, and probably have the law bust your ass with something (fines, incarceration, whatever) if you don't comply and go screwing around trying to infect people with something that kills somewhere between one in a hundred to one in fucking ten of the people that catch it.
Every effort should also be made to make sure it doesn't screw you over one way or another (from going stir crazy to going bankrupt), and probably to reward willing compliance if that'd help, but if you want your balance point between economic activity and people not fucking dying to the goddamn plague you have to limit the movement of the infected. Ideally without coercion, but if basic goddamn sense and decency doesn't stop someone from spreading a plague you go to your next options.
Post by: hector13 on April 22, 2020, 01:27:23 pm
‘cause refusing to broaden absentee voting in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC is not damage enough.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 22, 2020, 01:28:32 pm
The Republicans in Wisconsin are asking the state Supreme Court - which currently has a conservative majority of 5-2 - to overturn Governor Evers attempt to extend the safer-at-home policy ‘til May 26.here’s hoping the court values safety over partisanship, sadly unlikely
‘cause refusing to broaden absentee voting in a GLOBAL PANDEMIC is not damage enough.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 22, 2020, 01:42:10 pm
How widespread is this virus? Antibody tests seems to support the idea that large amounts of people were infected and going under the radar
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 22, 2020, 01:54:32 pm
Quote
Antibody tests seems to support the idea that large amounts of people were infected and going under the radarDepends on what you are asking. That huge chunks of people are asymtomatic or oligosymptomatic has been known for a while. Most estimates go around 50%-90% of all cases being asymptomatic.
If what you are asking is whether that means that enough people have been infected to call off the lockdowns... the answer is no, we're not there. If you cancel the lockdowns right now you get another peak fast and it throws rhe effort back another month
Post by: Frumple on April 22, 2020, 01:57:16 pm
An autopsy out in California has identified a COVID death from February 6, weeks earlier than the first official death. That means this person was infected around mid to late January.We don't know. We're still not fucking testing to nearly the degree we need to be to be able to answer that question with any actual certainty. We know we're not identifying a great many of the infected, though, yes. We're also aware those unidentified folks are still dying, tested or not. That's why NY's death toll suddenly jumped a bit ago -- they started including the likely, but unconfirmed, in their fatality numbers.
How widespread is this virus? Antibody tests seems to support the idea that large amounts of people were infected and going under the radar
Post by: McTraveller on April 22, 2020, 02:27:23 pm
I want to live my life enjoying it, not huddled inside with fear and gloom at every turn of the media. Maybe I should start taking online courses to get a psych degree - gonna be massive demand for PTSD and depression.
Post by: Frumple on April 22, 2020, 03:17:16 pm
It just doesn't suck as hard as like one out of a hundred or worse of your people dying in agony. It's a pain in the ass we can probably suck up if it means hundreds of thousands or millions of people, y'know, not dying from a viral pandemic.
.. though that said, and I get it's probably sort of a joke, while PTSD and depression treatment's basically always badly needed, you'd probably want to remember it's, well, pretty shitty from the doctor's side, too.
Imagine for a second listening to stories as bad or worse than everything going on with the crow plague, and trying to help people through that, except rather than being something you're engaging with sporadically and can sorta' remove yourself from at times, it's literally your job and you're doing it every work day. It's rough shit, burn out and depression/suicide rates among psych doctors dealing with those kinda' issues are pretty high. If just stay at home stuff is too much, it's probably not a good fit :-\
Post by: McTraveller on April 22, 2020, 03:25:22 pm
Doesn't help that it's late April and snowing outside again, but just flurries so it's just nasty out and not like go sledding or whatever, so the kids are even more cabin-fever than usual ':)
Post by: martinuzz on April 22, 2020, 04:51:41 pm
The fact that mass surveillance, ability to just force people to stop working, etc. are all now being normalized, worldwide.Yeah. That scares me just as much, if not more, than the pandemic.
Post by: Jimmy on April 22, 2020, 05:38:15 pm
Total Australian deaths: 74
People need to calm down, stay home, and if they want to protest, make a damned YouTube video about it. If they disagree with the way things are being handled, write to their local politician. If they don't give a satisfactory answer, vote for someone else, or even run themselves if nobody else is doing a good enough job.
Post by: Jopax on April 22, 2020, 06:02:18 pm
Post by: misko27 on April 22, 2020, 06:28:32 pm
Not social distancing early is like, instead of paying off the debt entirely, only paying it off partially, or waiting, etc. With the US efforts we only just barely have started paying off more than the interest to actually get to the principal of the debt, and now we've paid so much that not everyone can pay, distancing is going on too long and isn't indefinitely sustainable, etc. But we're paying more now than we would have to begin with if we had acted fast. If we had had, two weeks self-isolation, globally, or at least close to it, this would be over, or at least much reduced. But now not only is that too late, but it's impossible to do without a cost that is simply too high. So now we're going to have to spend a long time paying it off slowly because we literally cannot pay it off quickly.
And everyone pays for those who didn't.
Post by: wierd on April 22, 2020, 08:45:29 pm
It's almost like those wasteful safety nets are necessary!
Financial heresy! /s
No seriously-- The slavish devotion to "Gotta INCREASE those earnings this quarter AGAIN, or the world will end!" leads to situations where all fat gets cut. Then some meat. Then some more meat. Then some more meat. Then some more meat--- until you end up with a fucking lich of an economy: People don't make enough money to have a savings, because "GOTTA CUT COSTS! GOTTA INCREASE EARNINGS!! NO RAISES THIS YEAR!(except for management(tm))". People don't have enough money to buy things, but still, "GOTTA BOOST SALES! (and fire people who don't perform)", etc.
Then something comes along and knocks those skeletal legs out of it, and it lacks the strength to pick itself back up again.
But how DARE I question the necessity of fleecing the economy to the point where you take the top few layers of skin too, because "There's some hair shaft embedded in that skin, and we have to have THE WHOLE FLEECE!" I mean, think of the investors! /s
Inefficiency is not always a BAD thing. Try explaining that to an economist though. "savings" is an inefficiency, because that is money that is not being immediately re-tendered.
The economist *WANTS* everyone to live paycheck to paycheck. That is the most efficient, because all dollars are constantly circulating.
Post by: Iduno on April 22, 2020, 10:04:16 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Reelya on April 22, 2020, 10:18:41 pm
It's almost like there is some hidden cost... ... some not well-defined catch-22... ... some *reason* why naked capitalism is BAD, and you really should NOT seek to extract the absolute highest value the market can bear, to the point where there is no excess that can be saved!
It's almost like those wasteful safety nets are necessary!
That can also be stated in game-theory, with the Nash Equilibrium. In the Prisoner's Dilemma, the stable-state (Nash Equilibrium) is that nobody cooperates. What regulations and safety nets do is either force or incentivize people to stay in the "cooperate" state.
Understanding the Nash Equilibrium is the best counter-argument to free market zealots, because you can put real numbers to it.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 23, 2020, 03:15:34 am
Noone with whom I actually have the closeness to talk about these issues thinks that the whole clapping thing is anything else but a hypocritical move by western goverments. Healthcare workers are paid in clapping now. People are made to clap to the heroes/cannon fodder and they feel better. Afterwards they'll stop being heroes and will again be regarded as "priviledged" again. So cuts and oppression will go on.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Quote
Inefficiency is not always a BAD thing. Try explaining that to an economist though. "savings" is an inefficiency, because that is money that is not being immediately re-tendered
I dont think inefficiency is the right word. I'd call it redundancy. You want redundancy because it helps in case something unexpected happens.
IE: IIRC Saturn 5 engineering carried a great deal of redundancy measures. And if you think about it, given the endeavour, it makes a lot of sense
Post by: Reelya on April 23, 2020, 03:48:25 am
In terms of economics, you can see whether a redundant measure is worthwhile in a payoff matrix. If the chance of some failure is 10%, and the cost of failure is $1 million then the average cost is $100,000. So it's worth spending up to $99,999 on preventative measures if it prevents this failure from occurring.
Post by: wierd on April 23, 2020, 03:53:09 am
Remember, the goal of capital is to get even more money, and be even more successful (in terms of market share owned, product pushed, total market cap, etc.)
We can start with two identical businesses, A and B.
Business A decides that things like worker satisfaction, a quality paycheck, a pension plan, etc-- are all essential to running a proper business.
Business B decides that those thing are for chumps, and takes most of the money that those kinds of projects would need, and reinvests it vigorously into the business in the form of advertising, directed sales marketing, etc.
Business B grows much faster than business A. The workers at business A are happier, but there are fewer of them compared to business B, because Business B is eating up all the market with its rapid growth. People fucking hate working for business B, but they are the one hiring, so that is where they work.
Several decades pass.
Business B is now a megacorp, and business A gets bought out by them.
Had business A also fucked its workers, like B did, they would be neck and neck in the market, barring some radical development by one or the other.
Allowing your employee to "live", instead of being essentially wage slaves to the company, is how you make an ineffective business. So sayeth the god of Mammon.
Then, there is the larger "whole economy" angle.
An economy is strong when lots of money is exchanging between lots of hands. When people start taking money out of that system (such as by putting it in a savings account), that money is not doing economic work. It is thus less efficient than money that is freely circulating, for many of the same reasons that the contrivance between businesses A and B suffers, only now it is international governments and their economies.
This is why the imperative to always "Make due with LESS than what you actually need" is ever present. Everyone else is doing the same thing, and if you fail to do that, your enterprise/government will fall behind the others.
But, then comes a major disaster, and the whole thing implodes, because it is over-taxed all the time AT THE BEST OF TIMES.
The worshipers of mammon feel that such catastrophes will never happen. Always do. They see that promise of ever greater, infinite wealth generation-- and consider the human expense justified. They never consider that the bottom can fall out from something as tiny as a virus, or as simple as a lack of rainfall-- It's been the connecting thread of every sprawling mega-civilization in recorded history.
Reelya is correct, that regulations are the way to mitigate it-- but the people in love with money **HATE** that, because they see opportunity if they can circumvent those regulations, and "the things those were meant to prevent can never happen again."
See also, why they repealed Glass-Stegal, and no Network Neutrality later--
*THEY NEVER LEARN.*
Post by: McTraveller on April 23, 2020, 08:21:24 am
An economy is strong when lots of money is exchanging between lots of hands.
Just so I make sure, you are saying this is a misunderstanding that is perpetuated, yes? Because it's been demonstrated many many times that the strength of an economy is not related to the flow of money.
In fact, an economy that relies on high volume to be functional is, as we are seeing today, very very fragile.
I agree on basically all the other counts: when you have a system that rewards a local maximum of revenue, rather than a global maximum like ability to weather a disruption in trade volume without reducing quality of life, you get a system that is very fragile with respect to disruptions in trade. (Here of course I am using "trade" to mean any kind of economic exchange.)
I would like to live in a world where you could promote global maxima instead of local without resorting to punitive regulations like we typically see. This is why I've toyed around with ideas like "simplify the tax code: everyone pays 50% in income tax, and everyone gets their per-capita share of 80% of that; the other 20% is used for public services". This would put an incentive on everyone doing well, and do it without arbitrary nominal limits. It would also serve as UBI, it would eliminate the need for welfare programs, etc. If you earn $0, you still get your "public share" of the overall society's income. If you earn $30B, you get to keep half and still be stupid rich, but the other half goes to everyone. In the US, with a GDP of $20T, this would be a "public share" of $8M / 330, or a little more than $24000 per person, per year. That's your UBI of $2k a month, right there, with no regressive tax scheme required.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 23, 2020, 09:40:54 am
Post by: nenjin on April 23, 2020, 10:06:32 am
Post by: scriver on April 23, 2020, 10:09:50 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 23, 2020, 10:16:48 am
Post by: sluissa on April 23, 2020, 10:22:28 am
I can imagine a situation where smoking might actually discourage the virus from taking hold in the lungs, just by making the lungs a more hostile place. But still weaken the system enough that if the virus did take hold, symptoms and consequences would likely be worse.
But that's pure conjecture.
Post by: Iduno on April 23, 2020, 10:34:04 am
Also seeing chatter that smokers are less likely to contract the virus or at least suffer from it? Sounds like bullshit to me. And I say that as a smoker.
I've heard the opposite for months? Having weaker lungs and heart puts you at risk.
I can imagine a situation where smoking might actually discourage the virus from taking hold in the lungs, just by making the lungs a more hostile place. But still weaken the system enough that if the virus did take hold, symptoms and consequences would likely be worse.
Viruses don't care about hostile environments, because they aren't living. Short of denaturing the proteins of the virus, you can't do much to it physically. And if your body is that hostile, you're already long dead.
Post by: Starver on April 23, 2020, 11:13:38 am
There seems to be increasing evidence to suggest that COVID is attacking the circulatory system or the blood itself as more and more doctors and scientists are seeing increased blood clotting complications in patients; strokes and the like in younger patients.That worries me a little, with it coinciding with something about me.
I'l always used to suffer nosebleeds a lot. Had my nose cauterised twice (both times, both nostrils, so x4 really). No known blood issue, and in fact there was no problem being a blood donor.
And, being a donor, I found (with no real logic behind it) I'd only start to get nosebleeds when due to next donate, then not afterwards. Really I can only imagine it was psychosomatic/similar rather than "bring on the leaches!" time...
For the last few years (since they investigated reduced periods between donations) I had basically no nosebleeds of note. As mentioned here recently, however, they've not 'reminded' me to get an appointment, and I've held off because presumed hayfever symptoms (actually, so far, much less serious this year[1]) might confuse things.
But I've had a couple of bleeds. Out of the blue. Not spawned by sneezes (and no real nasal hayfever effects - eyes and roof of mouth are the current indicators) and as if the body has decided it's ready (and overdue) to lose some of the old claret, and if it aint gonna be through a needle in my arm it's gonna be by the old-fashioned way again.
(To be realistic, I know it's likely just coincidental. I'd suggest it was stress-induced but, on the whole, I'm probably a little less stressed than my usual level of "totally in denial" what with fewer net immediate unsortable things to consider unworthy of worrying about in the first place.)
The question is, though, what clotting/stroke complications are they saying COVID is perhaps forcing? It could as likely be over-clotting as underclotting (both produce strokes, of different types; though you can also get both types at the same time), so I'd want to know more before I start to look up the phone number of Hypochondriacs Anonymous or anything.
[1] Strangely. Unless self consciousness of the issues is somehow overriding my normal high-pollen reactions. Who can say? Sample of one ≠ proper study.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 23, 2020, 11:37:54 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 23, 2020, 11:51:13 am
EDIT: wouldn't you have to look at the difference in rate of strokes with COVID compared to rate of strokes with any other affliction as a co-morbidity? I mean, any illness is going to stress the body and increase probability of other complications, right?
Post by: Starver on April 23, 2020, 11:59:22 am
Interesting to hear about, but sounds a little too narrative without any actual detail.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 23, 2020, 12:15:02 pm
The separation is blurrier than you might think. Ischemic strokes often transform
Post by: Frumple on April 23, 2020, 01:13:24 pm
Also seeing chatter that smokers are less likely to contract the virus or at least suffer from it? Sounds like bullshit to me. And I say that as a smoker.I wouldn't be surprised at it being astroturfed somehow or another, honestly. People picking up on the crow plague preferentially murdering smokers (among others) and cutting back on use, followed by someone in the tobacco industry trying to drum up rumors to the opposite... well, there's this thing called "pattern recognition" when it comes to tobacco company behavior. It'd be interesting to know where that chatter's coming from.
Post by: nenjin on April 23, 2020, 01:19:20 pm
Also seeing chatter that smokers are less likely to contract the virus or at least suffer from it? Sounds like bullshit to me. And I say that as a smoker.I wouldn't be surprised at it being astroturfed somehow or another, honestly. People picking up on the crow plague preferentially murdering smokers (among others) and cutting back on use, followed by someone in the tobacco industry trying to drum up rumors to the opposite... well, there's this thing called "pattern recognition" when it comes to tobacco company behavior. It'd be interesting to know where that chatter's coming from.
Apparently this came out of a study in France.
http://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20200423-french-researchers-suggest-nicotine-could-protect-against-covid-19
Post by: mko on April 23, 2020, 01:38:05 pm
Seems like Italy will be opening its borders on May 1stI am curious what kind of countries would be available for travel after doing that (what has not closed border with Italy)?
Post by: Frumple on April 23, 2020, 01:40:55 pm
Apparently this came out of a study in France.Yeah, and going by commentary on what seems to be the actual publication, there's both holes in it you could drive a truck through and other studies saying the exact opposite, heh. Not that "less likely to infect you but more likely to kill you if it does" is exactly the most reassuring thing in the world...
http://www.rfi.fr/en/science-and-technology/20200423-french-researchers-suggest-nicotine-could-protect-against-covid-19
Least doesn't look like the initial stuff was paid shill work, tho' (at first glance anyway... you'd probably need to check the authors backgrounds to be more sure), which I guess is somethin'.
Post by: nenjin on April 23, 2020, 02:57:24 pm
"After many months of research and testing, we've found the best way to avoid Covid is to start smoking a pack a day."
Post by: McTraveller on April 23, 2020, 03:04:39 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 23, 2020, 03:08:20 pm
Post by: Starver on April 23, 2020, 04:06:39 pm
The separation is blurrier than you might think. Ischemic strokes often transformYup:
Or both (former sparked by latter)
Post by: Iduno on April 23, 2020, 04:14:18 pm
I'm still waiting for the discovery of the paper-rock-scissors of diseases. Something like "the flu kills cancer, cancer solves lead poisoning, lead kills the flu".
Most diseases, including viruses, stop functioning once the host is dead, so...
Edit: this picture is terrible. I think the version with Thanos (yeah, no. you can find that yourself) is less terrible, because that's obviously a joke.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on April 23, 2020, 04:37:33 pm
I'm still waiting for the discovery of the paper-rock-scissors of diseases. Something like "the flu kills cancer, cancer solves lead poisoning, lead kills the flu".Wrong way round?
Hot lead kills cancer (https://xkcd.com/1217/), and possibly 'flu' will kill that (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/gun-toting-trump-voters-march-21883841). Cancer vs flu is a trickier one.
Post by: WealthyRadish on April 23, 2020, 11:51:28 pm
Thankfully, you can still see ads selling you drinkable bleach and essential oils, along with the many other cures for the Chinese-manufactured nanoplague currently clearing the way for the new world order.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facebook-ads-idUSKCN2253CC (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facebook-ads-idUSKCN2253CC)
Post by: wierd on April 24, 2020, 12:04:12 am
I'm still waiting for the discovery of the paper-rock-scissors of diseases. Something like "the flu kills cancer, cancer solves lead poisoning, lead kills the flu".Wrong way round?
Hot lead kills cancer (https://xkcd.com/1217/), and possibly 'flu' will kill that (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/gun-toting-trump-voters-march-21883841). Cancer vs flu is a trickier one.
There was a story recently about flu VACCINE, which appears to prime the immune system sufficiently that it can then better identify, and then target certain cancers.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200107092558.htm
This is not exactly "Flu kills cancer", it is "Immune system kills cancer". But, it is after being primed with a vaccination.
IIRC, some followup work was done with animal models suggesting that direct administration of the flu vaccine directly into lesions can produce stronger results, with greater cell-mass reductions, and stronger immune responses.
Interesting, but not exactly what was mentioned.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 24, 2020, 01:21:06 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 24, 2020, 04:48:18 am
Post by: nenjin on April 24, 2020, 10:16:16 am
At first I thought it was some marketing effort to try and convince business owners to reopen their businesses.
After watching it I'm not actually sure what it was about. A lot of heart string tugging about your first day of opening your business, serving clients, teaching classes.....
It finishes with "even when you're not open, be open." Something something togetherness.....
We're in a weird place where we're marketing concepts rather than products. It's like someone with a lot of money thought it was worth it creating an ad to combat Trump's insistence that states reopen businesses.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 24, 2020, 11:18:59 am
Post by: nenjin on April 24, 2020, 11:21:19 am
If that fails, obviously, blood sacrifice is the next course of action.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 24, 2020, 11:21:33 am
So if remdesevir and hydroxychloroquine are both ineffective, then what's the next possible drug to get the big media push? Lysol injections? Giant vitamin C pills? A glowing rock in a black cardboard box that whispers when noone is watching it?This must be. Reference to something; what is it a reference to?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 24, 2020, 11:24:16 am
Shining Trapezohedron maybe?So if remdesevir and hydroxychloroquine are both ineffective, then what's the next possible drug to get the big media push? Lysol injections? Giant vitamin C pills? A glowing rock in a black cardboard box that whispers when noone is watching it?This must be. Reference to something; what is it a reference to?
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2020, 12:20:00 pm
I'm still waiting for the discovery of the paper-rock-scissors of diseases. Something like "the flu kills cancer, cancer solves lead poisoning, lead kills the flu".Wrong way round?
Hot lead kills cancer (https://xkcd.com/1217/), and possibly 'flu' will kill that (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/gun-toting-trump-voters-march-21883841). Cancer vs flu is a trickier one.
There was a story recently about flu VACCINE, which appears to prime the immune system sufficiently that it can then better identify, and then target certain cancers.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200107092558.htm
This is not exactly "Flu kills cancer", it is "Immune system kills cancer". But, it is after being primed with a vaccination.
IIRC, some followup work was done with animal models suggesting that direct administration of the flu vaccine directly into lesions can produce stronger results, with greater cell-mass reductions, and stronger immune responses.
Interesting, but not exactly what was mentioned.
Actually, they discovered that by noting that people who got the actual flu while beating treated for lung cancer had better survival rates. It's only "flu vaccine" because it's unethical to deliberately infect people with the flu. But real flu does the job too. The research was to test whether safe vaccines could be used instead of active flu virus. It's also not specific to flu. It's just that flu is virulent and gets in your lungs, and lung cancer is also in your lungs, so the connection was noted.
One line of thinking is that cancers produce signals that suppress/fool the immune system to ignore it, but if it gets a shake-up which activates a lot of immune-system cells at the location, it can detect the tumor. So rather than getting a "flu shot" this works by injecting a bunch of vaccine right into the tumor itself. So cancer has chemical camouflage, but if the immune system cells get up close in high enough numbers drawn by some foreign substance the cancer can't mask, that camouflage stops working, and it triggers a full response. Exactly what you inject doesn't seem to matter too much, as long as it causes an immune system freakout.
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/symptoms.png)
"This medicine says it may cause lightheadedness,
dry mouth, and blurred vision, but my head feels
incredibly heavy, water is pouring from my mouth,
and I can see individual hummingbird wingbeats,
so I think I'm fine."
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/2010_and_2020.png)
Post by: Bumber on April 24, 2020, 11:53:35 pm
I guess this is less ironic that the finger licking thing, but still.
Post by: wierd on April 25, 2020, 01:14:34 am
Post by: Egan_BW on April 25, 2020, 02:43:49 am
We're in a weird place where we're marketing concepts rather than products.That's just called propaganda.
Post by: martinuzz on April 25, 2020, 02:47:33 am
Then again, all is relative. We need a few more weeks of this many daily dead before as many people in the US have died of corona as how many children die of hunger every week in Africa (every single day about 10000 children die of hunger)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 25, 2020, 02:51:52 am
Funnily enough, I think there's a decent chance that covid's true patient zero was in a SE Asia country.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 25, 2020, 04:06:02 am
I think we'll be dealing with the casualties and sequelae of healthcare collapse for months or years
Post by: wierd on April 25, 2020, 04:16:14 am
They will do so, because they will see the price tag for actually keeping their public SAFE AND HEALTHY, and then look at how big their e-peens could have been if they had bought cruise missiles and stealth fighters instead, and whinge like petulant children.
AND-- on top of that, "Muh FREE MARKETZ!! DON' TOUCH MUH FREE MARKETZ BRO!", as their shameless nepotism and corporate welfare for personal profit prevent them from holding a gun to the AMA and telling them "STOP FIXING SUPPLY OF DOCTORS. OPEN MORE RESIDENCY POSITIONS, AND GRADUATE AN APPROPRIATE SUPPLY, OR ELSE", because "But.. but... but.... The free market fixes EVERYTHING!!! (and my cousin makes bank in the medical middle-man industry!!)"
They will not look at this disaster, and go "You know, it is very clear that decades of regulatory capture led up to this problem, and that this problem would not have been nearly as severe had that capture not happened; The "Free Market" approach failed spectacularly with thousands of people dying *DAILY* as the cost for that failure. NEVER AGAIN-- We are fixing the regulatory agencies, and doing it NOW." They will fail to do that, because that is what actually needs to happen, but would mean admitting that they fucked up for decades, and failed millions of people systemically for profit. No, they will never do that. Ever.
Post by: mko on April 25, 2020, 04:54:03 am
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 07:23:23 am
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2019/10/03/has_malaria_really_killed_half_of_everyone_who_ever_lived.html
Quote
BBC journalist Tim Harford was skeptical, too. For his podcast, More or Less, he interviewed Professor Brian Faragher, Emeritus Professor of Medical Statistics at Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine.
"It's difficult to find evidence to support that claim. It's a widely published claim, but it's very difficult to find the source of it," Faragher said.
Indeed, the claim is made in articles from a wide array of traditionally credible sources, most without a link to an original source. Its earliest utterance we discovered is in a 2002 Nature article, unfortunately unreferenced: "Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived."
That same year, two researchers explored the "Evolutionary and Historical Aspects of the Burden of Malaria" in the journal Clinical Microbiology Reviews. They wrote:
"At some time during the 19th century, malaria reached its global limits. In absolute numbers and in the proportion of the humanity now affected, malaria was exacting its highest ever toll of sickness and death. Well over one-half of the world's population was at significant risk from malaria. Of those directly affected by malaria at least 1 in 10 could expect to die from it."
So, even if all of the world's population in 1900 contracted malaria, the death toll would have come to perhaps 100 million. That's a lot of people, but it would have taken 540 more "1900s" to get to 54 billion deaths, an almost statistically impossible prospect.
So what they're saying there is that half were at risk of malaria, but this was "at its global limits". Someone else then turned that into a catch-phrase of "half of everyone ever, died of malaria". It's bullshit basically.
What the likely source actually says is that 50% of people were "at-risk" of getting it, and that malaria had a death rate, if you catch it, of 10%. That's at most ... 5% of the population dying from malaria, assuming 100% of at-risk people actually catch malaria, so the total is probably 2.5% died of malaria or in that ballpark, not 50%.
So, it's basically one of those viral "science facts" which no clear traceable origins. I guess if we could use more than 10% of our brains, it would be easier to prevent these baseless memes from spreading.
Post by: mko on April 25, 2020, 08:04:37 am
When I was checking it last time I found http://factmyth.com/factoids/malaria-killed-half-the-people-who-have-ever-lived/
Quote
The factoid is close to true, but, at the end of the day, it is too much of a guesstimate/generalization to be declared a fact. While we don’t know exactly how many died from Malaria throughout history, we can safely say, “Malaria could have potentially killed nearly to half the people who ever lived, predominantly children”.
So I though that with "it is an estimate/guess and we have no accurate data about prehistoric (and even historic) deaths" or similar disclaimer it is OK to mention it.
Maybe
"Malaria killed billions of people. From about 5% to about 50% of all people who ever lived (uncertain data is uncertain)".
would be better?
I need to check more of it,
Quote
At some time during the 19th century, malaria reached its global limits. In absolute numbers and in the proportion of the humanity now affected, malaria was exacting its highest ever toll of sickness and death.
was surprising to me. I though that early in the human history proportion was even greater (for example when humans were limited to Africa).
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 08:14:59 am
Quote
Malaria could have potentially killed nearly to half the people who ever lived
This bit is very vague though. There's a big difference between say "half of all people could potentially be murdered" vs "half all people who died were probably murdered". They're two different things.
Note that in the early 20th century there were a peak of about 2 million malaria deaths per year mostly in places where there was no treatment, but they need 5.5 million deaths per year, for every year between 800 BC to 1900 AD to add up to the 50 billion required deaths. So, even at peak deaths it was only about 40% of the required death rate for that year.
And we also gotta take into account world population growth, since any death rate is per-capita, and there were only around 200 million people in 1AD vs 1.6 billion by 1900. The numbers just don't add up. There was literally no year in existence in which the number of malaria deaths added up to 50% of all deaths, from what I can work out, so if it's untrue for all individual years, logically it can't be true when you aggregate all years.
So while it's "potentially a true statement" they're not talking about the numbers being close, or in the same ballpark to 50%, what they mean is that saying "malaria is one of the biggest killers in history" is still true, even if the "50% of all deaths" bit is wildly inaccurate.
Post by: Jopax on April 25, 2020, 08:53:36 am
Granted we've been having it fairly easy here, only a handful of cases, and even those were due to people being goddamn idiots thinking rules don't apply to them. Still feels kinda weird to be able to just go out in the evening, and understandably folks are out and about in force today.
Post by: Iduno on April 25, 2020, 08:56:23 am
The political ruling class having to eat a big assed dish of crow as everyone dies left and right, will of course-- STILL FAIL TO UNDERSTAND that failure to properly regulate and fund healthcare is what caused this whole mess.
They knew how bad it was when it hit China, and lied about the disease so they could sell off their stocks and profit from the suffering. They fully understand what they're doing.
Post by: hector13 on April 25, 2020, 09:51:58 am
That's super scary stuff if true.
Edit: Never mind, found what they linked to (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19) on the WHO website.
Quote
The development of immunity to a pathogen through natural infection is a multi-step process that typically takes place over 1-2 weeks. The body responds to a viral infection immediately with a non-specific innate response in which macrophages, neutrophils, and dendritic cells slow the progress of virus and may even prevent it from causing symptoms. This non-specific response is followed by an adaptive response where the body makes antibodies that specifically bind to the virus. These antibodies are proteins called immunoglobulins. The body also makes T-cells that recognize and eliminate other cells infected with the virus. This is called cellular immunity. This combined adaptive response may clear the virus from the body, and if the response is strong enough, may prevent progression to severe illness or re-infection by the same virus. This process is often measured by the presence of antibodies in blood.
WHO continues to review the evidence on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.2-17 Most of these studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus. However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,4 suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery. As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.
Quote
At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.” People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission. As new evidence becomes available, WHO will update this scientific brief.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 25, 2020, 10:16:14 am
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 10:28:20 am
This is nothing to do with being latent carriers.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 25, 2020, 10:47:51 am
Quote
However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,4 suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery.
Quote
As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.
Quote
People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission.
I don't think so. They have low levels, not no levels. They should at least be resitant. Furthermore, MOST of them ARE showing full expected antibodies. No study has been done, so they aren't sure if this means some people are still non-immune. Finally, they are worried that these people are using the idea of their own immunity to spread it further.
So it's not that they aren't finding evidence that you aren't immune afterwards. A minority might not be. They aren't sure yet. They'll give us more info when they have it.
Concerning, to be sure.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 25, 2020, 10:51:19 am
I don't think so. They have low levels, not no levels. They should at least be resistant.Microbiology man said "fuck logic" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement)
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 10:57:53 am
So it's not that they aren't finding evidence that you aren't immune afterwards. A minority might not be. They aren't sure yet. They'll give us more info when they have it.
Concerning, to be sure.
That wasn't my point at all. you said the concern was that they're still carriers. It isn't, that's a total misreading of the article.
This sentence for example:
Quote
People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission.
Isn't about people still being infected, it's about people who've been infected once ignoring public health advice since as stated they "assume that they are immune", and thus putting themselves at risk of a new infection, and then spreading it on. The phrase "second infection" is the key difference. The idea here is that if people who aren't actually strongly antibody-active start being given special "you're safe" certificates since they tested negative, they might behave in high-risk ways and pick up a new (second) infection.
Sure, you can argue it's unlikely, but it means your statement "That sounds like they're worried that people who have recovered might still be carriers for a time" isn't actually correct. No, it's not what they were worried about, because it's not what they were talking about whatsoever.
Post by: feelotraveller on April 25, 2020, 01:28:53 pm
32% of those surveyed believed that it is at least probable that a vaccine exists but is being withheld from the public.
44% believe that it is at least probable that coronavirus was created in a lab.
Post by: Iduno on April 25, 2020, 02:37:22 pm
Some 'interesting' survey results in US. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/24/coronavirus-one-third-us-believe-vaccine-exists-is-being-withheld/3004841001/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/24/coronavirus-one-third-us-believe-vaccine-exists-is-being-withheld/3004841001/)
32% of those surveyed believed that it is at least probable that a vaccine exists but is being withheld from the public.
44% believe that it is at least probable that coronavirus was created in a lab.
Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghosts, and they're all dumb as hell. 32% here is nothing.
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 02:40:54 pm
There is no coronavirus, it's test of a digital kill-switch using 5G Wifi and primed by chemtrails. If the conglomerate decides you're a problem, they flip the switch. This is the test run. Destroy the 5G towers while you can.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 25, 2020, 02:54:02 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on April 25, 2020, 02:55:19 pm
Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghostsWHAT IF THE CORONAVIRUS CAME FROM GHOSTS?!?!?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 25, 2020, 03:03:34 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 25, 2020, 03:04:12 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 25, 2020, 03:06:33 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 25, 2020, 03:43:19 pm
People who say it's completely preposterous for Bush to possibly want to blow up the Twin Towers probably don't know that Operation Northwoods (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods) existed.
Post by: Ziusudra on April 25, 2020, 03:50:14 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on April 25, 2020, 03:51:01 pm
Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghosts, and they're all dumb as hell. 32% here is nothing.
Wait, where are you from?
Post by: misko27 on April 25, 2020, 03:56:06 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 25, 2020, 04:39:26 pm
That said, the number of rich and powerful people with covid disproves it pretty easily.
Post by: Jimmy on April 25, 2020, 04:48:27 pm
Take an elderly man with poor health literacy. Add a stressful situation. Try to give him information about healthcare facts. Watch as those facts get mixed up inside his head and come back out in completely the wrong way.
UV light and disinfectant can be used to sterilize contaminated surfaces. Unfortunately, this old man confused that with using them in infected patients. Not a big deal when you're able to just correct the old man's misunderstanding. Very hard when the old man happens to have a pulpit to share his poorly understood information without any filters to a bunch of other stressed people with poor health literacy.
Post by: Starver on April 25, 2020, 04:49:04 pm
I hate the word "guesstimate" so much that I'm quoting you quoting something that used it just to state this.QuoteThe factoid is close to true, but, at the end of the day, it is too much of a guesstimate/generalization to be declared a fact. While we don’t know exactly how many died from Malaria throughout history, we can safely say, “Malaria could have potentially killed nearly to half the people who ever lived, predominantly children”.
It's a meaningless portmanteau that adds no understanding. Grrrr...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 25, 2020, 05:02:05 pm
I'm pretty sure anyone from the healthcare field recognizes this effect (https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/health/coronavirus-trumps-weird-suggestions-to-get-rid-of-the-virus/news-story/5c22dcca5950df9748e594d0254facac).Are you insinuating that inserting an UV light in your anus doesn't prevent or cure covid19?
Take an elderly man with poor health literacy. Add a stressful situation. Try to give him information about healthcare facts. Watch as those facts get mixed up inside his head and come back out in completely the wrong way.
UV light and disinfectant can be used to sterilize contaminated surfaces. Unfortunately, this old man confused that with using them in infected patients. Not a big deal when you're able to just correct the old man's misunderstanding. Very hard when the old man happens to have a pulpit to share his poorly understood information without any filters to a bunch of other stressed people with poor health literacy.
Post by: Frumple on April 25, 2020, 05:03:59 pm
I hate the word "guesstimate" so much that I'm quoting you quoting something that used it just to state this.Eh? Indicating an estimate is based on a guess rather than something more considered does add meaning, though. Or however you'd formulate the other way around. It's a guess on a subject you'd estimate on had you better data. Guess is less precise, because guess involves more than the numbery stuff estimates tend to involve. Estimate is less precise, because it can imply a more solid data based conjecture than you're working with. Guesstimate hits a midpoint between the two, giving the other folks involved a more solid understanding of what you're doing, with less room for confusion. I.e. it adds understanding :P
It's a meaningless portmanteau that adds no understanding. Grrrr...
... also autocorrupt recognizes it as a word. Friggin' thing didn't know a single vulgarity before I started adding stuff to it, but it knew guesstimate.
Post by: Starver on April 25, 2020, 05:16:31 pm
That sounds like they're worried that people who have recovered might still be carriers for a time, and then start spreading it again.So, with the prospect of limited duration immunity, could end up in a sort of SEICRS model?
(Susceptible->Exposed->Infective(<->Carrier)->Recovered->Susceptible... With Carrier being 'recovered' but not officially Recovered state.)
(Post-Posting edit: Ok, next post took things back away from that full model.)
(PPE: Estimates are all based on guesses, but have a degree of reason behind them beyond them, and all but the most unqualified pulled-from-your-butt 'guesses' include a tangible amount of reasoned estimation already. Can you guesstimate me the amount of reason it needs to turn a Wild-Ass-Guess into a guesstimate and the additional amount of reason it needs to become an official estimate? WAG->Guess->Estimate(->Precised Calculation) has no meaningful spot on the spectrum to insert "->Guestimate->" that won't sit well within some people's idea of a guess or well within other people's idea of an estimate. Thus it is at best meaningless, and at worst utterly misleading. That's all I need to say about it, and now return you to your regularly-scheduled programme. Or program.)
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 05:26:48 pm
My personal understanding of when it would be appropriate is when you have a formula for something, and there are some unknowns, but some of the inputs are guesses. So you guess as to the factors, and then do the calculations, then that's your guesstimate. The reason they coined the term would have been that in statistician terms "estimate" means an output that you gained by putting in measurements for the unknowns, not guesses. The need for a new term was because "estimate" means a specific thing when your doing stats. A guess is something you pluck out of the air, an estimate is something you take measurements for and plug them into an equation, and a guesstimate is something where you don't have data for some of the measurements, so you plug in guesses for those.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guesstimate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estimation
Quote
"using the value of a statistic derived from a sample to estimate the value of a corresponding population parameter".
So if you don't actualy have the sample data to plug into the equation, you're not actually producing a proper estimate. Even so, you may be required to given an estimation, so you plug in some reasonable-sounding guess. Hence, a guesstimate instead of a proper estimate. Yeah, so the term shouldn't be thrown around randomly, but it does have a specific and concrete meaning in that field, because estimate has a narrower definition when working in that field, so this term ended up getting split out.
Post by: Reelya on April 25, 2020, 06:40:13 pm
Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghosts, and they're all dumb as hell. 32% here is nothing.
Wait, where are you from?
That's pretty normal for America. Googling it: 54% of Republicans believe in demons.
https://today.yougov.com/topics/lifestyle/articles-reports/2019/10/21/paranormal-beliefs-ghosts-demons-poll
EDIT: also note that 14% of Republicans believe in vampires, whereas only 8% of Democrats do. Some of those are probably joking, but why would Republicans of all people be more likely to joke about believing in vampires?
1/7 Republicans (and probably a higher % of Trump supporters) believe or suspect literal vampires are lurking amongst us. This is why they are so agitated all the time and willing to overthrow democracy to put their people in charge. They actually believe there's literal Buffy the Vampire Slayer / Angel stuff happening behind the scenes. When you actually believe the other side is just a front for the literal monsters from the Doom games, you're willing to cut some corners on fair debating.
Post by: mko on April 25, 2020, 06:55:45 pm
https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/noisy-poll-results-and-reptilian-muslim-climatologists-from-mars/
Quote
(...)
Public Policy Polling’s recent poll on conspiracy theories mostly showed up on my Facebook feed as “Four percent of Americans believe lizardmen are running the Earth”.
(of note, an additional 7% of Americans are “not sure” whether lizardmen are running the Earth or not.)
Imagine the situation. You’re at home, eating dinner. You get a call from someone who says “Hello, this is Public Policy Polling. Would you mind answering some questions for us?” You say “Sure”. An extremely dignified sounding voice says – and this is the exact wording of the question – “Do you believe that shape-shifting reptilian people control our world by taking on human form and gaining political power to manipulate our society, or not?” Then it urges you to press 1 if yes, press 2 if no, press 3 if not sure.
So first we get the people who think “Wait, was 1 the one for if I did believe in lizardmen, or if I didn’t? I’ll just press 1 and move on to the next question.”
Then we get the people who are like “I never heard it before, but if this nice pollster thinks it’s true, I might as well go along with them.”
Then we get the people who are all “F#&k you, polling company, I don’t want people calling me when I’m at dinner. You screw with me, I tell you what I’m going to do. I’m going to tell you I believe lizard people are running the planet.”
And then we get the people who put “Martian” as their nationality in psychology experiments. Because some men just want to watch the world burn.
Do these three groups total 4% of the US population? Seems plausible.
I really wish polls like these would include a control question, something utterly implausible even by lizard-people standards, something like “Do you believe Barack Obama is a hippopotamus?” Whatever percent of people answer yes to the hippo question get subtracted out from the other questions.
(...)
Post by: Dunamisdeos on April 25, 2020, 07:00:47 pm
https://youtu.be/KGAAhzreGWw?t=91 (https://youtu.be/KGAAhzreGWw?t=91)
Post by: Trekkin on April 25, 2020, 07:32:56 pm
8% may be mostly Lizardman constant.
The rest could easily be the clickbait-y conflation of those who merely think something is probable and those who take it as definitely true, particularly when combined with the usual structure of these questions. Often they are presented with a spectrum in which the middle value is "don't know/no opinion", and people don't like to admit ignorance or apathy so they'll come up with an opinion on the spot just to have one, and they'll rationalize that it's more likely something real inspired the myths than that they were simply invented out of whole cloth. These people aren't walking around with stakes and holy water, but they're lumped in with the smaller fraction that are.
You can get a similar thing with aliens. If you ask people if aliens "probably or definitely" exist, a lot of them will express some opinion that, given life has evolved at one place in the universe, it is probable that it could elsewhere, and given the size of the universe it's more likely than not we haven't seen it yet, so sure, some form of alien life "probably" exists somewhere. That's not necessarily entirely scientific, but it is at least a reasonable argument. A few lunatics will enthusiastically relate how they were abducted and probed or whatever. What gets reported, though, is that X% of Americans think aliens are probably or definitely real and oh hey listen to these kooks with their abduction stories, with the clear implication that everyone in that X% is like that. Demons and angels are something of a special case, given Christianity, but a distinction needs to be drawn between the people who believe in them in a nonspecific, theoretical way and the ones who actively live their lives differently than they otherwise would in an attempt to avoid their influence.
When you add in performant responses and simple nihilism, it becomes very straightforward to draw out a top-line result that makes people sound stupid -- and stupid people often need to believe everyone else is dumb enough to make them look smart by comparison, so these stories get passed around widely because it lets people say that they may have no education or credentials or accomplishments but at least they don't believe in fairy tales and monsters.
Post by: Iduno on April 25, 2020, 08:20:20 pm
Look, 45% of people in the US admit they believe in ghosts, and they're all dumb as hell. 32% here is nothing.
Wait, where are you from?
When a mommy and a daddy are very drunk...
8% may be mostly Lizardman constant.
Upwards of 20% when the bars were still open.
Post by: Max™ on April 25, 2020, 09:23:26 pm
Source: I'm sick of "man" being conflated with "rude arrogant self-serving asshole rapists" all the time.
In other news, we've been over 2k deaths per day in the US every time I've checked for the last couple of weeks... so, TIME TO OPEN BACK UP RIGHT?
Post by: hector13 on April 25, 2020, 09:26:16 pm
I’m interested to see in a few weeks/months time how they blame the Dems for everyone suddenly being sick for some reason.
Post by: Max™ on April 25, 2020, 09:34:15 pm
Post by: Bralbaard on April 26, 2020, 05:45:02 am
I, for one will not shed a tear if mink farming will not survive the crisis.
Post by: McTraveller on April 26, 2020, 07:34:36 am
I mean, it's almost certain that virus particles for the cold, flu, whatever are quite very often present in, say, the nasal cavity of a given person. So if a test is designed to detect viral DNA/RNA, what separates out "there was at least N virus particles there" to "definitely an infection"?
Is this a hard-and-fast rule, or is it a subjective threshold?
I know that if you have symptoms and detect presence, then it's likely to be a true infection. But is just presence enough a valid criterion?
Post by: Trekkin on April 26, 2020, 07:50:57 am
I mean, it's almost certain that virus particles for the cold, flu, whatever are quite very often present in, say, the nasal cavity of a given person. So if a test is designed to detect viral DNA/RNA, what separates out "there was at least N virus particles there" to "definitely an infection"?
I'm in science rather than medicine, but here:
That depends on what is called the viral titer, which is more or less equivalent to the concentration of viral particles in a given sample. (There are some subtleties regarding VLPs, if you're wondering why I'm hedging.) The titer of a sample from an infected person will be many orders of magnitude higher than one that has simply come into contact with some viruses out in the world, and any test that incorporates a qrtPCR component (which is most of the expensive ones that are fast to create) works by copying any viral DNA that's there repeatedly and sticking a fluorescent probe to it. Since we know how many rounds of copying we put the sample through and the detection limit of the machine, we can watch to see when the signal picks up and work back to figure out the starting concentration of viral DNA. This is also part of how other tests like Western blot equivalents (the kind with colored stripes) are calibrated. We know the sensitivity of the probe in the stripe, so we can figure out how much to add to separate signal from noise where it won't change color from a few virions.
All that said, the titer of a given virus does vary with species and individual susceptibility, but as error rates go this is a relatively minor component.
Post by: McTraveller on April 26, 2020, 09:16:21 am
Thanks!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 26, 2020, 09:28:29 am
I expect another disaster in 5-10 days
Post by: Iduno on April 26, 2020, 10:34:58 am
Spoiler: US-centric stuff (click to show/hide)
Ah ok - so when they say the PCR tests are positive, it's not just that they detected the RNA signature but also that the titer was a certain concentration... that makes more sense.
Thanks!
More specifically, do you have a small amount from an exposure, or an increased amount because the virus has been replicating inside you?
In Spain the goverment loosened quarantine rules to allow children to go out for an hour every day, alone and supervised. All too predictably, children are gathering to play on groups and are being let out all the time. Parents are mingling too.
I expect another disaster in 5-10 days
We weren't expecting a second peak until fall. I'm guessing we'll end up with many peaks, and many thousands of unnecessary deaths. Even the survivors aren't exactly happy about it (I had a coworker tell me he spent a lot of time wishing it would kill him just so it was over). It's not something you want to catch, so maybe try being careful?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 26, 2020, 10:48:14 am
Yeah you'd expect people to realize that but you see in Spain we have a lot of very smart people (https://twitter.com/PakitoVlogs/status/1254432459531395073)who realized that if they're the only ones to flaunt the rules, they'll be OK, because they can rely on us morons staying at home to flatten the curve.
We weren't expecting a second peak until fall. I'm guessing we'll end up with many peaks, and many thousands of unnecessary deaths. Even the survivors aren't exactly happy about it (I had a coworker tell me he spent a lot of time wishing it would kill him just so it was over). It's not something you want to catch, so maybe try being careful?
(/s in case it wasn't obvious)
Post by: Iduno on April 26, 2020, 12:06:09 pm
Yeah you'd expect people to realize that but you see in Spain we have a lot of very smart people (https://twitter.com/PakitoVlogs/status/1254432459531395073)who realized that if they're the only ones to flaunt the rules, they'll be OK, because they can rely on us morons staying at home to flatten the curve.
We weren't expecting a second peak until fall. I'm guessing we'll end up with many peaks, and many thousands of unnecessary deaths. Even the survivors aren't exactly happy about it (I had a coworker tell me he spent a lot of time wishing it would kill him just so it was over). It's not something you want to catch, so maybe try being careful?
(/s in case it wasn't obvious)
Well, luckily for us all that the selfish attitude you mention is a Spain-only attitude, and that the rest of the world isn't suffering the same.
Post by: wierd on April 26, 2020, 10:15:39 pm
Hahahaha
We are still having the "Reopen!" idiots chanting their dumbfuckery.
If we have multiple peaks, our era is going to go down in history as "the pandemic that people just were too damn narcissistic to take seriously."
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 26, 2020, 10:18:08 pm
Post by: Max™ on April 26, 2020, 11:30:48 pm
The first glimmer of hope that lockdowns and distancing were working I've seen was when only 1100 people died yesterday: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#nav-yesterday (that is for the 26th if you're reading this later, and whoever you are, future reader, we're sorry about our dumbfuckery) but oh boy, protests and premature opening means whatever lull we may be entering now is gonna get really exciting in a week or two!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 27, 2020, 02:18:48 am
And regional govts announced they'll close parks and any other space where people might gather
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on April 27, 2020, 03:20:39 am
It's gonna bewildeconomically disastrous if we just straight up lose an entire year of human activity to covid as if the UN's prediction that the economic effects of covid-19 costing 130 million lives worldwide wasn't bad enough. .
Fixed
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 07:33:07 am
Post by: Kagus on April 27, 2020, 07:44:40 am
Unfortunately, this positive trend -combined with official regulations starting to lighten up on various businesses and gatherings and whatnot- seems to be almost certainly contributing to a new surge of people giving zero fucks about all this corona nonsense, since it's all done and over with now anyways!
Post by: Starver on April 27, 2020, 09:34:19 am
I know it's not a populuous country, discounting sheep and hobbits, and is slightly on the remote side but it seems quite well organised in its response compared to practically every other place of note (and definitely in whichever opposite hemisphere you care to define). Maybe we can learn from how they unlock back up again, though it might help that they aren't in a horrible position with mad people currently still doing mad things. Except for sheep and hobbit-related mad things, naturally.
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 10:07:40 am
* excluding certain forms of consensual activities.
** again, except when leather and chains are involved.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on April 27, 2020, 10:08:47 am
It is unfortunate that people are starting to think the virus is gone just because there are no new infections. People who have it still have it. Countries can open up if no one has it anymore, not just if there aren’t new cases
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 27, 2020, 10:41:51 am
I find it weird that lots of nations took the narrative of "This is war" and "isolation orders must be obeyed". That kind of wording is practically inviting people to have the immediate emotional response of wanting to flout them. The instinctive response for lots of people to someone telling you to obey* is to tell them to got fuck themselves, and to be honest that's what I think a correct response to someone using that kind of language should be under most circumstances**.People who have that instinctive response should habe the shit fined out of them. Pithy pleas about freedom(tm) kind of fail in the face of warehouses full of coffins. We've seen it in Italy, Spain and NYC. Noone has any excuse anymore.
* excluding certain forms of consensual activities.
** again, except when leather and chains are involved.
Really, a #covidiot tax is a good solution to address healthcare funding during this pandemic
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 11:03:25 am
If someone explains to me, the reasoning and rational, and invites me to work together with them using my available means and skills then that's a different story. That's an approach that works. The rules and requirements don't have to change for that to be so. You still bring those in place. I understand the why of the measures, and I support them being introduced because of that. But lots of political leaders failed horribly at taking that approach and I think that just makes things even worse by pushing people away from those rules in the first place.
Again, you compare it to New Zealand where there was none of that "this is war so obey me" talk from their Prime Minister and they're one of the most successful countries in combating it. There's other factors there, 'tis true, but like talking to people in terms of 'obedience' just seems like you either don't respect the intelligence of your populace at all to be able to follow along with the basic logic of the problem (which people don't much appreciate), or actually *want* people to 'disobey' through some bizarre nihilism and are utilizing reverse psychology.
Post by: Reelya on April 27, 2020, 11:17:17 am
EDIT: however I did read some of the preceding posts and realized you might mean more of the rhetoric than the actions. However I disagree on that. Where leaders took strong stances, there has generally been better compliance with less pushback. Note that the USA was all over the place with Trump's stuff and they're having the worst protests against the restrictions. It's not because those state leaders actually insulted the "freedom" of the people through their words, it's because they're being politically agitated to riot.
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 11:28:34 am
Again, I'm not talking about the practical actions I'm talking about the language being used by many politicians, which I think contributed to making the problem worse by encouraging an instinctive negative reaction to those practical steps.
You're always going to get idiots who flout the rules, you want to minimize the number of them and the way the rules are expressed and explains plays a significant part in that.
Post by: Reelya on April 27, 2020, 11:29:44 am
USA didn't have that "obey or else" rhetoric and they're the ones having all the protests. In fact, the protests are largely because their central government didn't take a firm enough hand.
In Australia, people are complying, and there's been plenty of "do the right thing or we will get you" stuff from the top. In fact, popularity of leaders is skyrocketing precisely where they take a "firm hand" approach. One of the problems in fact is that the jingoistic thing goes too far and people are reporting on their neighbors.
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 11:32:46 am
Quote
New Zealand is of course a small nation - its population is smaller than New York City's - and it is remote with easily sealable borders, which all played in its favour when the virus broke out.
But its relative success - it has among the lowest cases per capita in the world - has mainly been attributed to the clarity of the message coming from the government.
Unlike the countries that declared "war on Covid-19", the government's message was that of a country coming together. It urged people to "Unite Against Covid-19". Ms Ardern has repeatedly called the country "our team of five million".
"Jacinda [Ardern] is a brilliant communicator and an empathetic leader," says Prof Michael Baker from Otago University's Public Health Department, who helped advise the government on its response. "But what she's said also made sense and I think people really trusted that. There's been a high level of compliance."
For a pandemic response to be effective, he says, "science and leadership have to go together".
Post by: Reelya on April 27, 2020, 11:38:44 am
In a larger nation there also tends to be a larger disconnect between the power of the federal government vs the localities. for example, Australia has 7 states/territories, but New Zealand doesn't have states at all and is smaller than many single states in Australia. Pretty much whatever the Australian Prime Minister says here is moot, because it's the states who control all the health/police/judiciary systems in their areas. We have more of a "mixed message" issue here. Not because our rhetoric is different, but because the leadership of each state are implementing different types of lockdowns, different rules, different interpretations. The biggest gripe here is that some things are allowed in some states, and not in others. That's not down to a failure in message from the Prime Minister, but due to the fact that Australian State Governments are autonomous in many ways.
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 11:42:23 am
That aggressive attitude early on I think was just irritating for people and didn't help to actually encourage people to do the sensible thing and follow the rules that needed following. It frustrates people at a time when you really don't want to add to that on top of the inherent frustration those rules cause. And that predisposes people to thinking less in terms of "what can I do" and more "what can I get away with".
I'm not talking about a "oh this is exactly where it all went wrong", but "this is what I think has been one of the many missteps throughout this dilemma" and "that using this kind of language was the go-to approach for many leaders/ministers is in-and-of-itself concerning". It reveals something about the current state of the world that many of our politicians instinct was to try and appear tough at a time when a more compassionate kind of strength was what I feel is needed to be shown.
But that's just like, my opinion man. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c)
Post by: misko27 on April 27, 2020, 11:43:13 am
For instance, Sweden has 2x the population of Denmark or Norway, and has about twice as many cases, which is consistent... but 5x the deaths of Denmark... and 10x the deaths of Norway.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 27, 2020, 01:18:46 pm
New Zealand lockdown is not voluntary either. They enforced it with fines and prison time. Really I dont know what people are about with this shit of voluntary lockdowns
Post by: Max™ on April 27, 2020, 01:41:04 pm
Then... well, there's the US. About to hit 1 million total cases, 805k active, and we've far outstripped everyone else in sheer volume of tests at 5.6 million... that's something like 17k tests per 1 million people, with ~3k cases per 1 million people.
Got around 56k known victims of herr Drumpfuckschtick, and he is *checks notes* ranting about noble prizes and hamburgers on twitter after being made fun of for his totally reasonable suggesting of *checks new stack of notes* injecting UV light and disinfectants for some sort of cleaning to kill the virus.
I wouldn't expect him to know what a virus is, and his ignorance of the mechanism by which bleach sanitizes shit is unsurprising... but it almost sounded like he was picturing lightbulbs like some weird electric faucet, so you just turn it up to UV and squirt that shit into your lungs, bingo bango, no more virus!
...probably no more lungs if you had enough UV to actually do that INSIDE your lungs, but just in case, let's dump some bleach in there for good measure... he's the best at this science and medicine stuff folks.
*blinking morse code that just says 'GODS HELP US' over and over again the whole time*
Post by: nenjin on April 27, 2020, 01:49:57 pm
Lincoln, NE has not made an official announcement yet.
The country has to reopen at some point, but this feels a bit too early to me.
Post by: Reelya on April 27, 2020, 01:50:47 pm
You'd hope that was the peak, however he'll probably say something crazier by next week.
EDIT: The current situation makes you look back at Trump almost starting WWIII by assassinating senior Iranian leaders as fond memories of a simpler time.
Post by: Starver on April 27, 2020, 01:57:08 pm
Ostriches actually don’t bury their heads in the sand, the myth started when people saw them moving eggs around in their nests, but not seeing that they were moving eggs.Indeed. But hobbits do bury their houses in hills, of course.
Quote
It is unfortunate that people are starting to think the virus is gone just because there are no new infections. People who have it still have it. Countries can open up if no one has it anymore, not just if there aren’t new casesThat's why the phasing is so important. Make sure any latent infectors are still not licking other people's eyeballs (https://xkcd.com/2277/) without good reason (and bleachy eye-baths afterwards if they have?), and scale back the interdictions while (in the lucky position of having no huge outbreaks) jumping on any new suspected case with all the capacity you have for testing, contract tracing and then contact testing and onwards as required.
The (I bet it won't happen) promised 100k daily tests for the UK is currently aimed at Key(=Essential) Workers outside the NHS (after the patients and workers of the NHS have been sufficiently satisfied) but there's a lot of us in the potential reservoir outside that scope. If we were in the NZ situation, imagine even a fraction of the current capacity being used on anyone who just wants to be sure their dry cough is just something mundane (or non-infectious, but they could happily go to the hospital if it's a sign of something needing a biopsy to rule out cancer, etc) or their sneeze was due to an allergy.
It's the not knowing that has meant most rule-breakers have ignored some lockdown restriction or other (I heard a figure of 9%, the other day, which is a lot!) whereas if they tested positive - while feeling Ok and tested at all only because they were in contact with someone else tested/symptomed positive - and can be trivially supported by friends/relatives (who are themselves now sure they could do another shopping trip any time they need to required, because they're clear) for a requisite period then perhaps they will do so. Right now, an "infective but well" person might be the one doing the shopping for several households who have (initially) less reason to keep at home. But nobody knows of this.
For the same reason, any regime out there that is holding back on testing because "it's not counted if it's not been tested" may end up with zero 'cases', but are actually causing more of a problem than if they were adding thousands of cases per day (and even a number of positively attributed/associated deaths) but then using this knowledge properly to quickly reduce forthcoming days' figures.
But I'm sure that's just common sense, but a litte bit "armchair simulation" and the Real World™ still is a bit more complex.
Post by: Starver on April 27, 2020, 02:14:03 pm
Got around 56k known victims of herr Drumpfuckschtick, and he is *checks notes* ranting about noble prizes and hamburgers on twitterThat two-parter message about the media lying about him eating hamburgers was, ten minutes before that, a two-parter about the media lying about him eating "hambergers".
I saw the originals, in passing, wondered what comments would be made (ditto with the "Noble" prizes for journalism, sic) and found there was no thread behind the link. The whole two posts were deleted and resubmitted with "hamburgers" instead.
Some people just can't keep sane in lockdown. Not that he was sane before, nor locked down properly, but... my comment about what happens if he ever gets locked up is probably better in Ameripol. Except that he's the agitator, acting more like Davis than Lincoln despite being the one supposedly at the head of the federal response.
Post by: MorleyDev on April 27, 2020, 02:15:31 pm
New Zealand lockdown is not voluntary either. They enforced it with fines and prison time. Really I dont know what people are about with this shit of voluntary lockdowns
Pretty sure Voluntary Lockdown is an oxymoron :)
Don't know where you got the idea I opposed that or was supporting the 'mah fweedoms' people. I'm all for lockdown rules in these times, never said I wasn't. just think the attitude and language matter in getting people to want to follow them and nobody ever followed a rule they didn't want to follow. Following rules has a different tone to it than obeying rules. Tone matters in selling it to the maximum number of people.
Post by: Max™ on April 27, 2020, 02:19:29 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 27, 2020, 04:23:30 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 27, 2020, 08:11:41 pm
He said "I am not happy with China", and he "believes that the outbreak could have been stopped at the source".
"Perhaps it was inabilty to do something, or maybe it was something else. We are going to find out".
He alluded to financial compensation by China as well.
"Germany is talking about 130 billion euros. You can count on it that our damages are even higher".
I wonder what he'll say when Chinese nukes fly towards the US. Probably "hey I was just being sarcastic".
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 27, 2020, 08:25:01 pm
Some punitive action is overdue for China at this point anyway, even if not directly for their coronavirus response.
Post by: Teneb on April 27, 2020, 08:27:04 pm
I doubt Xi Jinping would respond with nukes even if the fine was carried out.Xi will probably just ignore any fines thrown his way and maybe do some trade-related retaliation.
Some punitive action is overdue for China at this point anyway, even if not directly for their coronavirus response.
Post by: Frumple on April 27, 2020, 08:37:15 pm
Post by: Starver on April 27, 2020, 08:55:30 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 27, 2020, 11:19:54 pm
I doubt Xi Jinping would respond with nukes even if the fine was carried out.Based on what, inaccurate number of dead?
Some punitive action is overdue for China at this point anyway, even if not directly for their coronavirus response.
They'll turn around and point that no country with a major outbreak is keeping accurate counts regarding cases. I doubt there's a case.
Post by: Frumple on April 27, 2020, 11:31:45 pm
The implications for actually managing it and winning would probably be fucking hilarious, though. Please, someone open the flood gates to having precedent for winning a case and having it stick related to internal incompetence or mismanagement splashing onto other countries. Please. You'd create a cottage industry overnight of folks bleeding the U.S. dry via punitive measures :P
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 28, 2020, 12:04:28 am
I doubt Xi Jinping would respond with nukes even if the fine was carried out.Based on what, inaccurate number of dead?
Some punitive action is overdue for China at this point anyway, even if not directly for their coronavirus response.
They'll turn around and point that no country with a major outbreak is keeping accurate counts regarding cases. I doubt there's a case.
I was thinking more broadly, along the lines of the Muslim concentration camps, brutal oppression in Hong Kong, etc. Some punitive action is long overdue for that. If it comes along under the coronavirus banner it's fine by me.
Sorry, should have made that more clear.
Post by: scriver on April 28, 2020, 12:07:22 am
I mean, considering we've turned around and exported cases back to china (and other nations, iirc), I'm pretty sure the play there is to just sue back for as much or more.
That just means we could sue China again since they are responsible for us spreading it back to them... So China would have to pay damages to themselves ;)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 28, 2020, 12:19:23 am
Yeah. But it's not going happen, unfortunatelyI doubt Xi Jinping would respond with nukes even if the fine was carried out.Based on what, inaccurate number of dead?
Some punitive action is overdue for China at this point anyway, even if not directly for their coronavirus response.
They'll turn around and point that no country with a major outbreak is keeping accurate counts regarding cases. I doubt there's a case.
I was thinking more broadly, along the lines of the Muslim concentration camps, brutal oppression in Hong Kong, etc.
Quote
Some punitive action is long overdue for that. If it comes along under the coronavirus banner it's fine by me.It shouldn't be. Punitive action for the wrong reasons does not help anyone.
At any rate it's highly unlikely there will be punitive actions for coronavirus either
Post by: mko on April 28, 2020, 02:54:37 am
In a press conference, Trump said that it will be seriously investigated in what way China can be held responsible for the spread of the corona virus.
He said "I am not happy with China", and he "believes that the outbreak could have been stopped at the source".
"Perhaps it was inabilty to do something, or maybe it was something else. We are going to find out".
He alluded to financial compensation by China as well.
"Germany is talking about 130 billion euros. You can count on it that our damages are even higher".
I wonder what he'll say when Chinese nukes fly towards the US. Probably "hey I was just being sarcastic".
I expect it to be as effective as Mexico paying for the wall.
With bonus of enraged China (that should be poked for human right violations instead) and presenting USA as an ineffective bunch of idiots.
Post by: TD1 on April 28, 2020, 03:06:05 am
I don't disagree with anything in those quotes. Find out why it happened and what went wrong. If China is held responsible it might tighten up its health and safety.
Post by: Greiger on April 28, 2020, 04:09:51 am
When you book a ship to Antarctica tell them to take you to New Berlin, a good 95 of the ship captains shipping down here work for us or are us, so chances are they will know where you are talking about. Once you get there find the first reptilian there and mention that you are there to see Greiger, they will show you how to get to my farm in the underdome.
Once you get there I will provide you with food and shelter for the rest of your short life, won't have to worry about a thing. Hell tell me yer from bay 12 I may even make you breeding stock!
Post by: Egan_BW on April 28, 2020, 04:13:08 am
Post by: Reelya on April 28, 2020, 04:32:47 am
In a press conference, Trump said that it will be seriously investigated in what way China can be held responsible for the spread of the corona virus.
He said "I am not happy with China", and he "believes that the outbreak could have been stopped at the source".
"Perhaps it was inabilty to do something, or maybe it was something else. We are going to find out".
He alluded to financial compensation by China as well.
"Germany is talking about 130 billion euros. You can count on it that our damages are even higher".
I wonder what he'll say when Chinese nukes fly towards the US. Probably "hey I was just being sarcastic".
I expect it to be as effective as Mexico paying for the wall.
With bonus of enraged China (that should be poked for human right violations instead) and presenting USA as an ineffective bunch of idiots.
Actually I think the US already knew it was SARS-2 back in December but decided themselves to not do anything about it or alert any of the American population because they didn't want to tank the economy through panic. American officials reportedly already knew there was an outbreak way back in November. This is idea that China only gave vague hand-wavy information to the WHO in January, therefore the USA was completely blindsided is complete nonsense. People who could merely read Chinese already knew more than the WHO was reporting back in December. And they expect us to believe the USA with their vast intelligence networks didn't know what was going on.
Basically they didn't really want China to actually do anything about it either. Effectively everyone thought it was just a repeat of SARS-1 and they didn't want anyone, including China over-reacting in ways which could affect global corporate profits. If China really did do the full lockdown earlier on and prevented the thing, then now America would be threatening to punish them over that. Just like they're pressuring for the lockdowns to be lifted in the USA now, they would have been pressuring China to lift the lockdowns too, because profits are at stake and the USA is a big investor in China. Saving the lives of some Chinese people vs mah profits? No contest. End the lockdowns China.
The Americans already knew all the details months before, and it's bullshit to say that a couple of hand-wavy statements by China to the WHO fooled everyone about what was going on. They knew. They didn't care. Trump still doesn't care, he's still on the "reopen things and get the money pumps going again" train. It's their fault.
Post by: Kagus on April 28, 2020, 06:14:33 am
Why is the tasty lizard telling me where to find it...?It's just lies and trickery, damn dirty lies and trickery. Reptilians are cold-blooded and can't function well in the freezing environment of Antarctica.
Just goes to show... You can't spell "Lizarde" without "Lie"
Post by: Iduno on April 28, 2020, 07:58:51 am
In a press conference, Trump said that it will be seriously investigated in what way China can be held responsible for the spread of the corona virus.
He said "I am not happy with China", and he "believes that the outbreak could have been stopped at the source".
"Perhaps it was inabilty to do something, or maybe it was something else. We are going to find out".
He alluded to financial compensation by China as well.
"Germany is talking about 130 billion euros. You can count on it that our damages are even higher".
I wonder what he'll say when Chinese nukes fly towards the US. Probably "hey I was just being sarcastic".
The US government wants a war with China. Both halves of the party are arguing for it. Next year is shaping up to be the bad kind of interesting.
I doubt Xi Jinping would respond with nukes even if the fine was carried out.Based on what, inaccurate number of dead?
Some punitive action is overdue for China at this point anyway, even if not directly for their coronavirus response.
They'll turn around and point that no country with a major outbreak is keeping accurate counts regarding cases. I doubt there's a case.
I was thinking more broadly, along the lines of the Muslim concentration camps, brutal oppression in Hong Kong, etc. Some punitive action is long overdue for that. If it comes along under the coronavirus banner it's fine by me.
Sorry, should have made that more clear.
Bring that to the US next. Our government is as bad, if not worse.
Actually I think the US already knew it was SARS-2 back in December but decided themselves to not do anything about it or alert any of the American population because they didn't want to tank the economy through panic. American officials reportedly already knew there was an outbreak way back in November. This is idea that China only gave vague hand-wavy information to the WHO in January, therefore the USA was completely blindsided is complete nonsense. People who could merely read Chinese already knew more than the WHO was reporting back in December. And they expect us to believe the USA with their vast intelligence networks didn't know what was going on.
Our congresspeople were also using that time to sell off stocks, because profit is more important than lives. Although here there does seem to be an effort to push certain groups of people into higher risk of dying. I would be unsurprised to learn that it's being used here to kill off unwanted people.
Post by: Reelya on April 28, 2020, 11:24:07 am
They've got a number on "excess" deaths above normal for the USA in March. It's 15000, which is double the official Covid-19 death toll from that period. So only 1/3 Covid deaths were officially counted. If that continued for April it would mean the real death toll would now be 150000.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 28, 2020, 11:46:37 am
In China there is complete totalitarian autocracy. There is not a menagerie of corporate powers in China, there is only the state. There is rapid destruction of all dissent, no matter how small or insignificant. Many workers there are living on $1 a day. 12+ hour shifts. Abysmal working conditions everywhere. Abysmal living conditions everywhere. Extremely zealous information filtering. Zero accountability, since what you're trying to hold accountable is the state and all that exists is the completely centralized and self-serving state in China; there is nowhere for one to turn to.
In America the problem is that there is too much ability for certain people to act like antisocial oppressive saboteurs; there is not enough overarching egalitarian, supportive social organization. This is really bad, but it doesn't create extreme centralized, concentrated badness.
Post by: misko27 on April 28, 2020, 01:05:05 pm
It wasn't like this information was hidden, or kept by only a single department. People knew what was happening, knew the risks, and actively pressured the policymakers to make decisions that would save lives. And despaired when they saw it not happening.
It didn't need to be like this. Not just in some hypothetical universe where everyone is a decent human being and politicians aren't selfish, but in a world quite similar to our own.
Post by: Frumple on April 28, 2020, 01:07:01 pm
I'm sorry, but I really disagree. The situation in the US is bad, but it's bad in different ways than how China is bad, and overall it's far less bad.You're very much in the wrong thread to be talking general differences. China has pretty much hands down handled their pandemic response better than the US has, as have some other countries. In relation to the crow plague the situation in the US abso-fucking-lutely isn't "overall far less bad". It's been significantly worse.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 28, 2020, 01:24:11 pm
Bring that to the US next. Our government is as bad, if not worse.
And no, the government doesn't want a war with China. That's where all our precious corporations do their manufacturing. Even if POTUS was dumb enough to declare war on China, this is one of the things where no one would let him. He is not a strong leader that people pander to because they trust him, he's a useful idiot that people pander to because it's convenient. He stops being useful if he tries to declare war on China. Though I don't think he would do that.
Post by: mko on April 28, 2020, 01:25:27 pm
The US government wants a war with China. Both halves of the party are arguing for it.
[citation needed]
This is stupidity beyond inject disinfectant random comments.
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on April 28, 2020, 02:43:45 pm
He is not a strong leader that people pander to because they trust him, he's a useful idiot that people pander to because it's convenient.
Bingo.
China has pretty much hands down handled their pandemic response better than the US has, as have some other countries. In relation to the crow plague the situation in the US abso-fucking-lutely isn't "overall far less bad". It's been significantly worse.
Why don't you describe to us less informed from this perspective as to how?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 28, 2020, 02:51:58 pm
That said, these comments that China is some 1984 hellscape are plain propaganda. China is just a place, and not even a particularly interesting place. The government does little there that the US does not do to its own population, which is admittedly not saying much, but not anything out of the ordinary either.
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on April 28, 2020, 03:52:28 pm
The US and China are already at war and have been for a while, it's just a war of shadows, proxy, and trade. The whole thing is a lot more complicated than the Cold War thanks to the massive artery of economic activity between the US and China as well as a lack of desire to report on it by either side's media, but it's there.
That said, these comments that China is some 1984 hellscape are plain propaganda. China is just a place, and not even a particularly interesting place. The government does little there that the US does not do to its own population, which is admittedly not saying much, but not anything out of the ordinary either.
Are you arguing that the US censors its media and arrests and imprisons or disappears non-violent political and religious dissidents, or that the CCP doesn't do these things?
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 28, 2020, 03:53:01 pm
EDIT: Ninja'd.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 28, 2020, 03:59:00 pm
People who post things that the US government actually cares about suppressing will find out just how quickly they can respond. I mean, it's literally a running joke that the NSA is reading all your emails and texts, let alone public posting.
All this anti-China sentiment is itself a perfect example of how the US government keeps control, by manufacturing consent. Who needs a Great Firewall when the real Great Firewall is inside the minds of Americans instead of our computer screens? It doesn't even matter that I say this, because you've been well trained not to listen to it and instead fear the dread influence of "The CCP".
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on April 28, 2020, 04:04:20 pm
In general, that the US does those things. Of course, there is no need for dissaperances in the US - such wrenched criminals are surely guilty.You'll have to excuse my skepticism. What would you consider instances of the US Federal or State gov'ts using force to quell political dissidence (modern, of course)?
People who post things that the US government actually cares about suppressing will find out just how quickly they can respond. I mean, it's literally a running joke that the NSA is reading all your emails and texts, let alone public posting.
All this anti-China sentiment is itself a perfect example of how the US government keeps control, by manufacturing consent. Who needs a Great Firewall when the real Great Firewall is inside the minds of Americans instead of our computer screens? It doesn't even matter that I say this, because you've been well trained not to listen to it and instead fear the dread influence of "The CCP".
Of course the NSA is monitoring everything, but I've never met someone who thought that was an inherent good and wouldn't want to stop it if they believed they could, or who felt threatened or endangered for saying as much.
Post by: nenjin on April 28, 2020, 04:11:44 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 28, 2020, 04:16:42 pm
Of course, that's what happens when the system fails to keep obedience. Mass media conglomeration in the US allows easy control over what is and is not reported, and how. All the major media corporations have admitted to cooperation with the security state in one form or another, and don't speak on things that might "threaten national security". But even that much is manufactured to the extent that it's a light touch - the ideology of the media is so fervently pro-US that they don't need to be told 90% of the time what to do, and regardless those with stake in the government and stake in the media are often synonymous. Obviously they have little desire to report against their own interests.
If everyone hates NSA monitoring, why does it continue? You're allowed to hate it, you're just not allowed to stop it. That is a dimension of consent manufacturing, and in fact one that China uses as well. Bitch and moan all you like, but stay off the street. Something I like to say is that the big reason we can't repeal the Patriot Act is that we never enacted the Patriot Act - its passage was with small debate and smaller dissent, an act of power rousing to move openly. Of course, true acts of state power have consequences, and so are kept to the minimum necessary.
The truth of the matter is that the Chinese government is just somewhat less elegant with consent manufacturing...or are they? How would you know, seeing as what you know about China is sieved through the US media apparatus before you learn it?
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 28, 2020, 04:18:25 pm
China handled the response better because, despite trying a cover-up, they have been and are still going hard with lockdowns, sick pay, and dedicated hospitals. This was of course enabled by their authoritarian government - going out was very enforceable against.
By comparison, the US has a scattered, jigsaw puzzle response with no real federal leadership, states continuing allowances of in person church services when other businesses are closed (proven to create infection hotspots), insufficient financial support to the population, and infighting between the feds and the states over medical supplies.
Oh, and we broke a million cases apparently.
Edit: Oh, and also the daily fucking misinformation from our own president.
Post by: Reelya on April 28, 2020, 04:20:31 pm
Semi-related: https://worldnewsdailyreport.com/fbi-raid-at-nsa-employees-home-reveals-over-16000000-dick-pics/
I started to suspect that's a parody news site.
Post by: mko on April 28, 2020, 04:42:08 pm
That said, these comments that China is some 1984 hellscape are plain propaganda. China is just a place, and not even a particularly interesting place. The government does little there that the US does not do to its own population, which is admittedly not saying much, but not anything out of the ordinary either.
This is a lie.
See for example
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Christians_in_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Christians_in_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Falun_Gong
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organ_harvesting_from_Falun_Gong_practitioners_in_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Tibet
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restrictions_on_geographic_data_in_China
Please stop claiming that USA has the same level of human right abuse to its own population as China. (obviously, USA has multiple ongoing problems but nothing even close to what China is doing)
Sorry for offtopic but this type of lies is irritating. Yes, USA has some human right abuse. Yes, it is much lower than USSR, current Russia or current China.
EDIT: reply to below. (1) "to its own population", I am well aware what they are doing to foreigners, see Iraq. (2) separation children from parent is horrible etc, it is still far away from what China is doing
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 28, 2020, 04:46:33 pm
It doesn't even matter that I say this, because you've been well trained not to listen to it and instead fear the dread influence of "The CCP".
The US has concentration camps for children by the way.
If you're going to say that people of the majority demographics and lifestyle are safe in the US and those who aren't are where most of the abuses are, well, same deal in China.
This is exactly the same shit as the wave of bigotry against Muslims that happened after 9/11, based off half-truths stretched into madness and fervor.
Post by: WealthyRadish on April 28, 2020, 04:58:00 pm
I started to suspect that's a parody news site.
And because it's 2020, naturally the fun joke ironic satire post is actually a link to the neo-nazi equivalent of The Onion.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Teneb on April 28, 2020, 05:03:21 pm
Post by: nenjin on April 28, 2020, 05:21:53 pm
Post by: Starver on April 28, 2020, 05:55:16 pm
Semi-related: https://worldnewsdailyreport.com/fbi-raid-at-nsa-employees-home-reveals-over-16000000-dick-pics/Surname: Wang.
Though it sounds like relatively indiscrimate harvesting of candidate image files. Without some rather dedicated review, classification and sorting I imagine you could only, at best, say that more than about 4 million of those pics were actually semi-related.
(edit: yeah, even though I thought "it was funny", for various meanings of "funny", I probably got fooled more than I just enjoyed 'finding' additional humour in it and the way it was linked. Letting my reply stay, however.)
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 28, 2020, 05:59:08 pm
This is exactly the same shit as the wave of bigotry against Muslims that happened after 9/11, based off half-truths stretched into madness and fervor.
And that is exactly the strawmanism that precipitates all the cries of "ANTI-SEMITISM!!" every time someone says maybe it's bad when Israel murders a dozen Palestinians.
I have nothing against the Chinese people. They are the victims at the forefront of the Chinese state's oppression.
Post by: Bralbaard on April 28, 2020, 06:02:53 pm
Sorry for offtopic but this type of lies is irritating. Yes, USA has some human right abuse. Yes, it is much lower than USSR, current Russia or current China.
Fully agree with that, this annoys me as well. But what also annoys me is the narrative that China must be lying about everything, and that China must have millions of Covid death that they are not talking about because it could not possibly be the case that they did a better job at containing the disease than the good old USA is doing (god bless the president).
It is entirely plausible that China did a better job, and all the evidence is pointing in that direction. Despite, or more likely because, all the failings and human rights abuses in their system, China is much better able to keep something like this contained. On top of that they had experience with SARS. No magic or major conspiracy is needed to explain that this was relatively contained in China.
It is clear that western society is at a disadvantage in this situation. We had to wait untill public opinion was ready to accept lockdowns before any drastic action could be taken despite the fact that it was completely obvious that something very bad was happening in china, and as a result we responded too late. Now public opinion may force us to open up the system too soon, whereas china enforced their lockdown to the point where they had all but eleminated the disease within their borders.
On top of that, this crisis is forcing us to keep people confined to their homes, which goes kind of against the whole superior human rights and freedom thing we had going here. The reflex seems to be that if China is doing this rather well, then they must be to blame for all this. This feeds into all the conspiracy theories about engineered viruses, and is not helpful at all, the chinese people are as much a victim of this as we are.
This is also not just China and the US, there are a lot of other countries trying to find a balance, based on their own situation, and experimenting with different rules and restrictions. Rather than trying to shift the blame or say that others have it all wrong, we can learn a lot from looking at those other approaches and the results. Can we open up the schools without negative effects? Can we open up the shops with restrictions? There is a lot of data out there because countries take different approaches. We have to find our way out of this by learning from eachother, and we must find a way to convince people that the restrictions are needed, and that their rights will be restored when this mess is over.
But it won't be easy.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 28, 2020, 06:06:46 pm
I'm not the one taking instruction from the government on what to believe. You and all the rest are suddenly activated on China now for a reason, and it's not your own reason.This is exactly the same shit as the wave of bigotry against Muslims that happened after 9/11, based off half-truths stretched into madness and fervor.
And that is exactly the strawmanism that precipitates all the cries of "ANTI-SEMITISM!!" every time someone says maybe it's bad when Israel murders a dozen Palestinians.
I have nothing against the Chinese people. They are the victims at the forefront of the Chinese state's oppression.
States do evil, inherently. No great revelation there. But the US is not as good as you think it is and the PRC is not as evil as you think it is, and it is that disparity that tells me this is the result of propaganda.
Perhaps more to the point than people being instructed to hate Muslims after 9/11 is people being instructed to hate Saddam's weapons of mass destruction in the preamble to invading Iraq. Saddam was a bad guy. He may even have really had a weapons program. But we all know the timing and the extent of the claim was pure bullshit to ensure public consent, and blindingly hypocritical given the kinds of weapons the US makes and uses. At least a million dead Iraqis was the result, hell, we don't even know the exact number of dead.
While we're on the subject, that's why North Korea really has nukes and Iran probably needs them. To keep CIA bugs out of their hair and US bombs off their cities. Certainly we can see that the US public won't be stopping any conflicts regardless of their actual legitimacy.
Post by: nenjin on April 28, 2020, 06:11:08 pm
Quote
and that China must have millions of Covid death that they are not talking about because it could not possibly be the case that they did a better job at containing the disease than the good old USA is doing (god bless the president).
This is the same government that allowed uncontrolled, unpoliced wet markets to exist for decades, which has been a breeding ground for diseases in the past. So if they've been that bad at managing that vector, that bad at oversight of their manufacturers, and everything else.....it's a pretty big leap of faith to assume they did a better job at rapid response and quarantine measures. IMO, the country is so large and the population is so dense that even if they were doing their level best, logistically, it'd be hard to do a great job. But what they can control, via their media, is what the present to the rest of the world. And they'd leverage the shit out of it.
Post by: NJW2000 on April 28, 2020, 06:26:27 pm
We had to wait untill public opinion was ready to accept lockdowns before any drastic action could be taken despite the fact that it was completely obvious that something very bad was happening in china, and as a result we responded too late. Now public opinion may force us to open up the system too soon, whereas china enforced their lockdown to the point where they had all but eleminated the disease within their borders.
This may be true in some places, especially 'Murrica, but in the UK it seemed more like public opinion forced the government to start a lockdown. And I don't know much about whoever's in the cabinet at the moment, but some of the pressure on the government to reopen fast seems to be internal.
Of course, with the government's chief political advisor in the scientific advisory group, I suppose we can just be thankful we aren't going with herd immunity.
Post by: coalboat on April 29, 2020, 12:53:12 am
I'm not in US so what I see may be wrong but I think US spreads the risk across the whole population to avoid the damage of quarantine while favoring the richer people to some extent.
Neither of the these can be called "good" measure. They are just what the governments come up with when they are panicking like everybody else while still trying to look "having things under control" and in the meantime worrying more about their political rivals taking advantage than the actual epidemic.
Post by: wierd on April 29, 2020, 01:55:20 am
Quoteand that China must have millions of Covid death that they are not talking about because it could not possibly be the case that they did a better job at containing the disease than the good old USA is doing (god bless the president).
This is the same government that allowed uncontrolled, unpoliced wet markets to exist for decades, which has been a breeding ground for diseases in the past. So if they've been that bad at managing that vector, that bad at oversight of their manufacturers, and everything else.....it's a pretty big leap of faith to assume they did a better job at rapid response and quarantine measures. IMO, the country is so large and the population is so dense that even if they were doing their level best, logistically, it'd be hard to do a great job. But what they can control, via their media, is what the present to the rest of the world. And they'd leverage the shit out of it.
What, you mean the stories of people circumventing the the great firewall to give uncensored insights into their coronavirus experiences, and being summarily arrested aren't just smoke and mirrors.
https://qz.com/1846277/china-arrests-users-behind-github-coronavirus-memories-page/
Post by: Kagus on April 29, 2020, 02:06:55 am
Quote
China
Code: [Select]
You have embarked on the Falun Gong Organ Harvesting Trail!
...
You have died from dissentery.
Post by: coalboat on April 29, 2020, 03:59:23 am
Post by: mko on April 29, 2020, 04:49:30 am
I "activated" because you started trolling/lying about how USA and China has the same level of human right abuse against their own citizens. What is blatantly false. China is doing nearly all evil things done by USA government against their own citizens and adds many seriously evil things on top (censorship, religious persecution, unelectable leaders without term limits, destruction of Uyghurs culture, organ harvesting and many more).I'm not the one taking instruction from the government on what to believe. You and all the rest are suddenly activated on China now for a reason, and it's not your own reason.This is exactly the same shit as the wave of bigotry against Muslims that happened after 9/11, based off half-truths stretched into madness and fervor.
And that is exactly the strawmanism that precipitates all the cries of "ANTI-SEMITISM!!" every time someone says maybe it's bad when Israel murders a dozen Palestinians.
I have nothing against the Chinese people. They are the victims at the forefront of the Chinese state's oppression.
Also, daily reminder that not everyone on the Internet is from USA.
(hint: if you want to argue that USA is as evil as China then do not restrict it to "own population[0]" - this will include hundreds of thousands dead in Iraq, treatment of immigrants etc. And that may allow you to claim that they are in the same class as far as caused evil goes. But claiming that human right abuse of China citizens by China government is on the same level as human right abuse of USA citizens by USA government is extremely dumb claim or quite efficient trolling.)
[ 0 ] http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=175464.msg8132911#msg8132911
States do evil, inherently.Similarly humans, but you can be more or less evil. Ending analysis at "both A and B do evil things" is how you end with very stupid results.
Post by: McTraveller on April 29, 2020, 08:09:04 am
I'm not in US so what I see may be wrong but I think US spreads the risk across the whole population to avoid the damage of quarantine while favoring the richer people to some extent.This is an interesting observation. Specifically - most things in the US do "favor the richer people" but this isn't really due to an intentional coordinated action. It's an emergent phenomenon of many many influences. When you get past the hyperbole of the US leaders and corporate fat-cats "focusing only on the rich at the expense of the poor, and laughing with glee because they are getting away with stealing from the poor" you are left with reality, which is much closer to this:
The US is hyper-individualistic and is generally "pay your own way." This implicitly favors "the rich": if you have money, you can buy stuff. It's not so much "let's screw the poor people", the average mentality of 90% of the US population is just "why don't those people pay for it? Why don't they just work harder, stop wasting money on drugs, and buy the necessities they need?"
We just don't have a culture of "the community should have priority over the individual" - our culture is steeped in "do what makes you feel good" (rather than "do what is good for the community"). Almost all tension in the US is the battle between this individualistic worldview and the movements to try and be more community focused. It's really interesting though because there are bifurcations in this - especially in "liberal" leaning philosophies. What I mean is there is a weird mix of "person first" like in gender identification and "community first" like in environmentalism and social programs.
This shows up in the US virus response attitudes - people in the US have a mental fitness function that is "yeah I don't see the benefit in sacrificing 90% of my income for an expected personal return of 5%. I also don't even see the benefit in sacrificing 10% of the entire country's economy for 1% of the population - even if that is 3 million people". For that's essentially what is being asked: "saving COVID lives should be done, no matter the cost!" is how it sounds, and most people are like "no man I don't want to pay that much." Where the ire comes in the US is when leaders say "sorry we know you don't agree with action X but you have to do it anyway." We just don't have a culture of deferring to leaders without question - we relish at least the ability to complain about it (while generally acquiescing most of the way).
Post by: coalboat on April 29, 2020, 08:33:38 am
While not individualistic, China is neither a community driven society. Community gives way to centralized national power. Civil organisations are not prosperous.
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 29, 2020, 08:44:12 am
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/15/poll-dont-stop-social-distancing-coronavirus-spread-187290
It is not an exaggeration to say that the push to reopen is largely coming from corporations. Yes, it sucks to lose your job, but what sucks more is that the federal government has done nothing substantial to make quarantine measures financially sustainable for the working class. All that they did was give everyone a $1200 bribe and call it a day, alongside an unemployment benefits expansion. The USA has horribly messed up the response, and is already trying to bow to the whims of corporate profit to undo what little it did.
This hurts the working class, too. Let's say, like my partner, you don't want to go back to work at Starbucks yet. However, because your state has said that they're ending social distancing measures, you not showing up to work is now voluntary - you then don't get unemployment benefits. As such, you go back to work, and expose yourself to a neurotoxic (loss of sense of smell sensitivity in many patients, full effects unknown) disease.
Edit: it should be noted that many "anti-lockdown" protests to date tend to focus on wanting to be able to use services, as opposed to going back to work to perform services. This is inherently selfish.
Post by: McTraveller on April 29, 2020, 09:15:28 am
Of course people poll they prefer staying at home - the media has made this look like if you get it you have a death sentence. And I do mean that - people are so afraid of this thing it's madness.
Oh yeah I see the edit about wanting to use services but not provide them. Absolutely - that's part of the absurdity of the whole situation. I'd say it's worse than "selfish" - I'd say it's just plain ignorance of how the universe works.
Post by: nenjin on April 29, 2020, 10:28:47 am
Quote
And I do mean that - people are so afraid of this thing it's madness.
With how many people that have died who were young, and in good health, I don't think it's madness. It's fear and uncertainty. No one knows if they contract it if they will be a) asymptomatic b) mildly sick c) really sick or d) need to be on a ventilator or choke to death on their own fluids.
That's why people are scared. They simply don't know how it will effect them, if it does effect them. Broad based testing so people could see "You have covid antibodies, so you had it but you didn't realize it" would go a long way to chilling people the fuck out as the realize the virus isn't necessarily a death sentence but a natural phenomena with unfortunate but ultimately manageable consequences.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 29, 2020, 10:43:39 am
Quote
Broad based testing so people could see "You have covid antibodies, so you had it but you didn't realize it" would go a long way to chilling people the fuck out as the realize the virus isn't necessarily a death sentence but a natural phenomena with unfortunate but ultimately manageable consequences.Chilling the fuck out is exactly the wrong thing to do if you want the consequences to be manageable. Again: this was never about the virus' lethality for any individual person (although it's probably high enough to want to avoid catching it on principle). It's about healthcare collapse. No one is immune so if you don't do social distancing everyone catches it, and the IFR, however relatively low it is, quickly translates into hundreds of thousand dead and millions requiring hospital attention (which in turn means that you can be an asymptomatic covid carrier and STILL DIE due to covid, if you get something else that goes untreated due to healthcare collapse)
Post by: McTraveller on April 29, 2020, 10:53:48 am
Chilling out is actually very important - where "chilling out" here means "don't be so afraid you don't even go outside." I know quite a few people who literally have not been outside their house since mid-March. They are that worried. It's a mental health disaster - the anxiety is ridiculous and probably could have been mitigated to some extent.
There's a difference between chilling out and not practicing social distancing and hygiene practices.
Post by: andrea on April 29, 2020, 10:59:08 am
At least over here in Italy the danger of overwhelmed hospitals is widely spoken about. Then again, we have first hand experience.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 29, 2020, 11:07:47 am
Quote
Yes we know it's about healthcare collapse - but the general public doesn't know that. The general public thinks they are locked up because if they catch it they will dieWell if they catch it there is a chance of dying. Most people who catch it wont, in fact, die. But 1 in 200 are still nasty odds which is better to avoid. I don't think they are insane.
And social distancing is, in fact, about staying home as much as possible, among other things. Really, it's the easiest way to avoid contact with other people
Post by: McTraveller on April 29, 2020, 11:16:55 am
For instance, healthcare collapse doesn't mean zero healthcare - it really just means that resources are exhausted so triage will have to take place and people will be turned away for certain conditions. It also probably means lower total capacity because some of the health care providers are "out of service" due to illness or refusal to work.
But the public hears "collapse" and I guarantee many of them think it's like a bridge that collapses and can't be used at all until it's entirely rebuilt.
What I mean is the term "collapse" itself causes anxiety. If they would have just said "reached its capacity" or something less alarmist, the anxiety could be reduced.
Post by: Teneb on April 29, 2020, 11:25:41 am
I mean understand what healthcare collapse means, not that the public doesn't hear about "healthcare collapse" in the news.Look, in my state here in Brasil the state gov has outright stated that the hospital system is now in full collapse. As in, people are straight up dying because there are not enough chairs (not even beds, chairs) to put them in. It's a fucking collapse. The state health secretary has estimated that for each confirmed case, there are 15 to 20 unconfirmed cases. Saying it's needless anxiety is outright irresponsible.
For instance, healthcare collapse doesn't mean zero healthcare - it really just means that resources are exhausted so triage will have to take place and people will be turned away for certain conditions. It also probably means lower total capacity because some of the health care providers are "out of service" due to illness or refusal to work.
But the public hears "collapse" and I guarantee many of them think it's like a bridge that collapses and can't be used at all until it's entirely rebuilt.
What I mean is the term "collapse" itself causes anxiety. If they would have just said "reached its capacity" or something less alarmist, the anxiety could be reduced.
Hell, even drug trafficker factions are enforcing lockdown because they realize how bad things are. Meanwhile, the militias (read: paramilitary mafias with links to the president and his family) are using this opportunity to do turf wars vs the traffickers.
People are sleeping outside the public banks in order to get their measly R$600 assistance checks.
Meanwhile, president bozo in a live interview was informed of the death toll so far and has answered, and I quote: "So what?"
Post by: coalboat on April 29, 2020, 11:56:33 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 29, 2020, 12:05:19 pm
Collapsing is when the hospitals close, they turn off all the lights, and all the staff decide to screw it and walk off into the sunset. Overrun is where the hospitals are still "functioning" but can't meet demand. I can see how being overrun can lead to collapse, but...
There is a difference between those two situations, and I daresay that one is preferable to the other.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 29, 2020, 12:20:20 pm
I'm not the one taking instruction from the government on what to believe. You and all the rest are suddenly activated on China now for a reason, and it's not your own reason.
You are arguing in bad faith and making incorrect assumptions and you know it. I'm not taking any "instruction." You need to unsaddle yourself from your high horse and recognize that other people are also capable of independent thought.
I am not just "activated" on China now. Muslim concentration camps didn't just happen now. Organ harvesting didn't just happen now. Those things were revealed by Chinese dissidents; the US media picked up on it afterwards.
Post by: Bumber on April 29, 2020, 01:43:50 pm
One big problem with the lockdown is that hospitals stopped performing "elective" surgeries. This includes stuff like cancer screenings, tumor removal, heart and brain surgeries, and hip replacements. We could start having a bunch of people dying of strokes and cancer as the result of trying to prevent coronavirus deaths.
Post by: wierd on April 29, 2020, 01:46:45 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says
Post by: Trekkin on April 29, 2020, 01:52:10 pm
a vaccine could still be nearly a year away.
That's not necessarily true of entry inhibitors, though.
Post by: Bumber on April 29, 2020, 01:56:17 pm
There's one small problem with that idea Bumber...
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/25/844939777/no-evidence-that-recovered-covid-19-patients-are-immune-who-says
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
Post by: TD1 on April 29, 2020, 01:59:08 pm
Post by: wierd on April 29, 2020, 01:59:41 pm
@bumber
No, no it's not.
But there are reports of reinfection, or at least testing positive again, of recovered patients.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html
"Herd Immunity" might not be a thing.
Post by: TamerVirus on April 29, 2020, 02:13:47 pm
But there are reports of reinfection, or at least testing positive again, of recovered patients.
Recently the South Koreans have said that the 'reinfection' numbers come from the PCR tests picking up inactivated virus fragments (https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200429007051320) in recovered patients.
I still think it's too early to be sure
Post by: TD1 on April 29, 2020, 02:15:52 pm
Post by: misko27 on April 29, 2020, 02:31:46 pm
This "so what?" summarizes the attitude of many governments.Oh come on. Why must we have this attitude in all things. Governments are like families: they are all broken in their own, unique way. In Brazil's case, Bolsonaro holds the distinction of being the highest-profile "coronavirus don't even fucking real" in the world, although Belarus' Lukashenko has recently become competitive for the title. More generally Brazil's handling of the outbreak has mimicked Russia's most closely, with local leaders mostly taking the lead while the central government eventually deciding to stay quiet and periodically comment gravely about the seriousness of things (this is similar to the US response, but the comparison is complicated by the US Federals govt. vacillating wildly between "literally giving everyone cash" to "this is a state problem, we did what we could." day-by-day; while Russia and Brazil have seen more consistent, if not better policy).
I mean understand what healthcare collapse means, not that the public doesn't hear about "healthcare collapse" in the news.I'd be so bold as to suggest that anxiety has a negative correlation with deathrates in this pandemic.
For instance, healthcare collapse doesn't mean zero healthcare - it really just means that resources are exhausted so triage will have to take place and people will be turned away for certain conditions. It also probably means lower total capacity because some of the health care providers are "out of service" due to illness or refusal to work.
But the public hears "collapse" and I guarantee many of them think it's like a bridge that collapses and can't be used at all until it's entirely rebuilt.
What I mean is the term "collapse" itself causes anxiety. If they would have just said "reached its capacity" or something less alarmist, the anxiety could be reduced.
Also, hospitals *did* reaching their capacity in New York. They didn't massively exceed them as predicted in the worse case scenarios, but the number of people who died alone at home is a significant percentage of the total death toll in the city.
I'm not the one taking instruction from the government on what to believe.Oh China did horrifically if we're going to compare it to "fair" things and not simply the US today, as you are, as Americans often do (do not make the classic mistake of going full anti-American and still being Amerocentric!). Yugoslavia is an excellent example of the power of an authoritarian government to stop an epidemic in its tracks, one far deadlier than Coronavirus, and the PRC does not come off well in that comparison. An outbreak of 140 cases of Hemorrhagic Smallpox on one day. Admittedly, a vaccine existed, but the response rested on immediate declaration of martial law, numerous cordons sanitaires, roadblocks, nationwide lockdown and heavy quarantining. From March to May. The Chinese government acted on January 23rd, the outbreak started in December, with the virus identified on January 7th. I'm not speaking as an American, I'm speaking as an exile of an authoritarian state that was proud to be the last smallpox outbreak in all of Europe. By that standard no, they did a pretty awful job. So did everyone else, sure, but as I've said before and I'll say again, everyone pays the debts of an individual person, state, or nation's refusal or inability to act, and it must be paid with steep interest.
Well yes that's what everyone has said. No one has come out and said "Here is definitive proof that you can catch it again", people have said "proof that you can't get it again has not been found yet." Which is, ah, significantly less committal.But there are reports of reinfection, or at least testing positive again, of recovered patients.
Recently the South Koreans have said that the 'reinfection' numbers come from the PCR tests picking up inactivated virus fragments (https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200429007051320) in recovered patients.
I still think it's too early to be sure
Post by: scriver on April 29, 2020, 03:16:39 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 29, 2020, 03:34:52 pm
But you can't really rely on herd immunity. You need 60% upwards of immune people for that. And we're very far from there
I've heard that very few hospitals in the US have even come close to collapsing so far. New York (the worst hit state) didn't come close to needing all the ventilators they got, and appear to have passed the peak. If the goal of the lockdown was to prevent hospitals from overflowing, we seem to have done that. It would seems reasonable that we could start to open up some places so we could start to gain herd immunity without overrunning the hospitals. We can't get immunity without exposure and a vaccine could still be nearly a year away.
The situation in NYC hospitals (and, well, everywhere) was and is far worse than you are saying, with material shortages and thousands of staff infected. If it didn't become worse, that is no reason to dump social distancing, because it was social distancing that prevented that in the first place.
Would you dump your parachute midjump because you didn't immediatedly splat after jumping out of a plane?
Quote
One big problem with the lockdown is that hospitals stopped performing "elective" surgeries. This includes stuff like cancer screenings, tumor removal, heart and brain surgeries, and hip replacements. We could start having a bunch of people dying of strokes and cancer as the result of trying to prevent coronavirus deaths.Yes. And they were cancelled precisedly BECAUSE there was a significant risk of healthcare collapse. If you want those to go ahead you need to keep social distancing up, so that there is not a second peak, and hospitals both have the resources to spare for elective procedures, and have a safe environment for the patients
Post by: Starver on April 29, 2020, 04:38:27 pm
It'd be nice to justify something closer to 75% usage as a norm and 90% as 'normal' high utilisation peak.
In this emergency we assembled/equipped[1] the Nightingale Hospitals, their beds overwhelmingly (and fortunately) laying idle, so there's the equipment in them that is usable, but staffing them was always going to be a problem with having to leech some away from pre-existing clinical locations before having to consider those that had to absent themselves for COVID reasons (or hospitalised!).
Spare capacity (in all elements) isn't something you should skimp on. Safety factors in building design is usually around 2, in cars it is around 3. In civil aviation it may be 1.5 (because of weight premium, but some elements that can he are lower because other elements still must be higher). Less than 1.1, which seems to be what we were operating at in the public healthcare 'machine', is less than even the (overall) military aviation limit of aprox 1.25, where the designed strength is raised greatly compared to civilian equivalents, but then so is the expected maximum overload they encounter.
So, what will change, afterwards? I don't know. I'm perhaps somewhat pessimistic about it, though.
[1] Not 'built'. It was no easy task to get various exhibition centres (that were going empty, under the circumstances) and set up medical facilitiee in them, but it wasn't a building of new hospitals like the Chinese did.
Post by: McTraveller on April 29, 2020, 05:10:21 pm
Safety factors in ... in cars it is around 3.Hahaha what!? What cars are you talking about? If they had a safety factor of 3, no car would ever have a part fail*. I think on paper the safety factor may be 3, but it's using some questionable assumptions about expected loads.
(All the rest are quite accurate, incidentally.)
*I think the safety factor of 3 may only be for safety components, not for all parts.
Post by: Bumber on April 29, 2020, 06:11:07 pm
The situation in NYC hospitals (and, well, everywhere) was and is far worse than you are saying, with material shortages and thousands of staff infected. If it didn't become worse, that is no reason to dump social distancing, because it was social distancing that prevented that in the first place.I didn't say we should dump social distancing altogether. Outside spaces such as parks and beaches, as well as outside restaurant seating, should be opened due to the mitigating factors of UV radiation and fresh air. Staying indoors for too long has an impact on physical and mental health. Jobs where you're only exposed to your coworkers limits the number of possible infectees. Same for areas with low population density. I'd say we need schools open, but they're already terribly overcrowded to begin with, and I'd bet poorer schools lack the space for outdoor classes.
Would you dump your parachute midjump because you didn't immediatedly splat after jumping out of a plane?
Quote
Yes. And they were cancelled precisedly BECAUSE there was a significant risk of healthcare collapse. If you want those to go ahead you need to keep social distancing up, so that there is not a second peak, and hospitals both have the resources to spare for elective procedures, and have a safe environment for the patientsThe equipment and specialists are different, though. A COVID patient doesn't need an MRI machine or a heart surgeon.
Post by: Starver on April 29, 2020, 06:42:30 pm
Yes, a headlight may occasionally fail in normal use, but the engine shouldn't get pushed through into the cabin even in a fairly bad crash. Maybe you consider that a 'safety component', in which case I agree with you, and coffee-cup holders are not. OTOH, they could both be designed to a factor of 3.0 - the plastic holding a typical coffee cup (a can is 330ml, and slightly smaller, so 3x that-and-a-bit in weight/mass/force/whatever) might support 1.5kg in extremis in a quality car that cares about such things. The forward bulkhead may be designed to withstand its share of a head on combined speed impact of 150mph by being strong enough to 'handle' a 260mph closing speed (x3½, cancelling out the rest of the basic equation of movement with v² in it).
Not that I can speak fully for modern car design. And it used to he "save the car, damn the passengers" in times before crumple zones and seatbelts (which I'm not sure can be 3x as safe as 'normal'.. in a consumer 3-point system, at least).
Not that that was the point. But it's not at 90-95% of its envelope of stress at all times, a car, unless its being constantly abused in a Fast & Furious sort of way.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 29, 2020, 06:54:04 pm
Quote
I didn't say we should dump social distancing altogether. Outside spaces such as parks and beaches, as well as outside restaurant seating, should be opened due to the mitigating factors of UV radiation and fresh air. Staying indoors for too long has an impact on physical and mental health. .Those "mitigating factors" are not enough. We see it everywhere... if sun was all it took it wouldn't be ravaging Brazil and Iran. Not impossible to loosen, but must be done in a way that prevents people from crowding, that allows to easily control people flouting the rules, and with testing capacity to isolate and trace contacts and lock down again if things get out of hand. Few countries are there.
Quote
Jobs where you're only exposed to your coworkers limits the number of possible infectees.In a world where you only speak or interact with your coworkers maybe. But people relate in wider circles. Which is what spreads the disease. Heck, I've seen people around with computer models of this. Same as before: any opening up must make people work from home as much as possible, enforce protection and limits on how many people can be in a building for those who dont, and a high testing capacity, same as before.
Quote
Same for areas with low population density.Low population density isnt a magic bullet either. I mean it will obviously spread faster in city, but less dense areas will have less resources to deal with the problem too :/
Quote
I'd say we need schools open, but they're already terribly overcrowded to begin with, and I'd bet poorer schools lack the space for outdoor classespretty much all of them do. IIRC past experience shows that early school closure
Quote
The equipment and specialists are different, though. A COVID patient doesn't need an MRI machine or a heart surgeon.]They might need the MRI machine. If they do sterilization will be necessary between uses which will slow things down. You'll also need a radiologist who more likely than not will be too busy writing imaging reports on covid patients. The cardio surgeon won't have a lot of work himself but the anesthesiologists (which can and in most countries do double up as ICU physicians) will likely be busy. Plus the anesthesia machines might have been commandeered as impromptu respirators. And support staff will likely have been relocated too. You'll also need a ward to let the patients recover, and that ward will need to exist, will need staff, and will need to be covid free. And so on... things in healthcare are quite convulted
Post by: Max™ on April 29, 2020, 08:19:07 pm
Crumple zones, engineered collapse routes, and leveraging shit like ML checks to optimize the transfer of any energy trying to intrude into the passenger cell into other portions of the car/less violently coming to a halt.
Ideally cars would just keep track of other objects, talk with other cars, and in any situation where something fucks up they would actively take various steps to reduce severity mid-crash, and post-crash to the point that if a car was flipped over onto the roof it would attempt to kick itself over with active-suspension pulses and shit like distributed auto-lift systems like racecars have... unless it determined that would be likely to harm the occupants worse.
None of this is shit we can do during a crash, so we're clearly not qualified to drive.
Similarly, a government focused more on polishing smooth rounded surfaces than anything else is going to react poorly when it encounters a spiky bunch of corners and edges.
The US has been moving towards having dedicated cocksuckers for anyone earning over a certain amount since the Reagan era, and any time big corporations or rich old fuckbags run into a sharp edge they bitch and complain and throw money at politicians until it gets rubbed flat and smooth.
Polishing all those wrinkly little white guy knobs is a time-consuming... errr... job... so anything which isn't already dedicated to that task becomes a source of new edges and spikes to bitch about, things like healthcare, job security, education, infrastructure, really any sort of spending time or money that isn't directly related to rubbing old cock-n-balls becomes less tolerable and accordingly those of us with firm, upright, hard-working, and youthful junk are left to do our own polishing because if we wanted silk-gloved buffers we should have been born rich or found a way to rip off everybody else first!
Now that the junkpolishing has ground to a halt all those old shitbags are noticing how dry and uncomfortable and prone to chafing they've gotten so they push and push and push to get everyone else to bend over and take a good stiff pounding... for their sake.
Crossed the 1 mil known cases number a couple days ago, up to 62k known deaths so far.
We had a brief slowdown where it dropped from 2.4k deaths per day to 2k, then dipped closer to 1k, before hopping back up to around 2.5k again.
Looking through the "change since yesterday" data here I noticed something: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#nav-yesterday
Previously it had been a pretty smooth relationship between total cases and new cases, but now there are weird lumps in certain spots.
Illinois, California, Michigan, Texas, Georgia, Maryland, Virginia... why would those places suddenly show a spike of new cases out of proportion with their previously known cases when the rest of the list is so much smoother... hmmm, I suppose we'll never truly know, huh?
As for war with China, the first rule of nuclear fight club is you can't joint nuclear fight club, the second rule of nuclear fight club is you don't openly fight other members of nuclear fight club, the third rule is no fuck you, you seriously can't join and if you did you really can't fight other members openly.
Post by: mko on April 29, 2020, 08:34:43 pm
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/woman-who-blamed-trump-after-giving-her-husband-fish-tank-cleaner-now-under-investigation-for-murder/
Post by: Reelya on April 30, 2020, 12:43:29 am
So that couple that tookmedicine irresponsibly touted by Trump as a possible COVID curefish tank cleaner? The wife is now under investigation for homicide. Apparently the wife is a Democrat donor and has a previous domestic assault charge against her husband. The husband himself was a “very intelligent man” (retired mechanical engineer) according to friends. Something smells fishy.
Watch how quickly she changes her tuna now. She's fin-ished.
Post by: Bumber on April 30, 2020, 01:12:53 am
So that couple that tookmedicine irresponsibly touted by Trump as a possible COVID curefish tank cleaner? The wife is now under investigation for homicide. Apparently the wife is a Democrat donor and has a previous domestic assault charge against her husband. The husband himself was a “very intelligent man” (retired mechanical engineer) according to friends. Something smells fishy.
Watch how quickly she changes her tuna now. She's fin-ished.
See her flounder as the sunfish sets on her freedom. Shell try to clam she only used a dab of the chemical. That won't kelp her. Her own testimony with be her worst anemone.
I'll bet they invite the sturgeon general to give the toxicology report as her knees turn to jellyfish and she lets out a blood coral-ing scream.
Post by: martinuzz on April 30, 2020, 03:24:46 am
Post by: NJW2000 on April 30, 2020, 03:41:15 am
How is being a Democrat donor relevant in any way?I think the implicit idea is that a Dem donor would care less about the negative publicity consequences for Trump of yet another person trying his bleach cure. Though if I really wanted to murder my husbad, I honestly doubt I'd care too much about the political consequences.
Alternatively, could be that a Dem would be unlikely to take advice from a Trump speech.
That said, America has more than enough crazy to go round, and I wouldn't be surprised if she had a road-to-Damascus moment along with her husband, and they promptly chugged aquarium cleaner right after.
Post by: mko on April 30, 2020, 05:32:59 am
How is being a Democrat donor relevant in any way?It makes less likely that she considered Trump trustworthy, it makes more likely that she considered "Republican mindlessly follow Trump to the point of consuming aquarium cleaner" to be believable.
Also, it makes possible that she had tripple motive - murder husband and blame Trump and present her husband as a gullible idiot. So not only murder but also an attempted character assassination of two people she disliked.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 30, 2020, 05:39:17 am
Post by: wierd on April 30, 2020, 05:49:00 am
The maker of Remdesivir is just willing to give them some hype to get a financial boost is all.
Post by: scriver on April 30, 2020, 11:00:18 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 30, 2020, 11:17:14 am
Apparently Trump said he wants the US to do like Sweden now?What? He wants an actual social security safety net, and to stop grabbing women by the pussy now?
Post by: Starver on April 30, 2020, 12:07:38 pm
Apparently Trump said he wants the US to do like Sweden now?https://www.xkcd.com/2300/
Post by: martinuzz on April 30, 2020, 02:07:48 pm
Misjoestin is one of the leading figures appointed to the corona crisis team by Putin.
Post by: Starver on April 30, 2020, 02:26:24 pm
(In UK news, the (now) centenarian fundraiser-for-things-I-really-wish-didn't-need-fundraising-for Tom Moore has been made an Honourary Colonel. Handily skipping him from Captain way past the rank of Major, so nothing funny in that at all.)
Post by: nenjin on April 30, 2020, 06:12:52 pm
The fucking Mall. Like, of all the shit people want to do and buy, frivolous shopping at clothing stores and boutiques is what's important? JFC.
If I had to guess, this is someone leaning on city government to reopen shit because they're tired of losing money, not because it was a reasoned policy decision. This shit makes me mad. I'd have felt better if they'd just reopened everything. This feels like special treatment for literally the last thing on fucking earth that matters to the average person's life right now.
Post by: misko27 on April 30, 2020, 06:19:18 pm
Nah man, I choose life.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 30, 2020, 06:22:21 pm
Post by: Frumple on April 30, 2020, 06:45:24 pm
You know I'm speaking for myself here but I'm not going to any of these fucking things that reopen. Not even to get my desperately needed haircut, which is 4 months lateJust do what I do, I haven't had a haircut in like fifteen years. Need is relative when you have hair ties or somethin'.
Nah man, I choose life.
Though yeah, panama city here in florida is apparently opening up their beaches again next week. I think I'm just going to not go anywhere near that city for a few more weeks.
Though that said, local area's looking to open stuff like libraries and whatnot back up in the next week or two, too. On one hand it's sorta' desperately needed cause we're a rural shithole and a fair amount of folks like, don't have internet access, and without it are having serious trouble getting, y'know, help. On the other hand, fucking crow plague.
Post by: Reelya on April 30, 2020, 07:36:25 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 30, 2020, 07:39:25 pm
And then regardless the second wave will rise up, possibly just in time for flu in the fall.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 30, 2020, 07:45:19 pm
You know I'm speaking for myself here but I'm not going to any of these fucking things that reopen. Not even to get my desperately needed haircut, which is 4 months lateI'm doing buzzcuts for the foreseesble future
Nah man, I choose life.
Post by: martinuzz on April 30, 2020, 08:13:47 pm
"It is something horrible that has happened.... Maybe they made a mistake... Or it started with a single mistake and they made another one... Or maybe someone did something on purpose?"
He also said that in light of the evidence, he is almost certain that a laboratory in Wuhan is the source of the outbreak.
He refused to give any details about the evidence that makes him believe that.
Yet the US intelligence services have concluded that the virus cannot have been man-made. They publicly announced so yesterday.
They are further investigating the matter, and will try to find out if the outbreak resulted from human contact with infected wildlife, or that it was due to a mishap at the Wuhan laboratory.
Trump threatened to impose new import tariffs on Chinese wares
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 30, 2020, 08:21:49 pm
Trump just stated that he has seen ' convincing evidence' that the corona virus escaped from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan.Fucking great. I can't wait to get drafted to be a human torpedo operator in the tenth year of the Great Chinese Virus War.
"It is something horrible that has happened.... Maybe they made a mistake... Or it started with a single mistake and they made another one... Or maybe someone did something on purpose?"
He also said that in light of the evidence, he is almost certain that a laboratory in Wuhan is the source of the outbreak.
He refused to give any details about the evidence that makes him believe that.
Post by: delphonso on April 30, 2020, 09:14:04 pm
The issue is that they've introduced an additional layer in some cities (Hefei, to be exact) - some sort of redundancy - which is tied directly to your Chinese ID. It was required to gain access to shopping malls, some supermarkets, and flights out of the city. Meaning foreigners can't do it. It even had an option for passports in the app, and when I put in my passport number it told me that it meant only Chinese passports. This is frustrating as it's a waste of time and is confusing for the staff who have no idea how to handle that situation, and were just told to make sure everyone scans. Everywhere that I couldn't scan eventually let me in - which means the whole thing is a bit pointless.
Post by: coalboat on April 30, 2020, 11:47:49 pm
Post by: scriver on May 01, 2020, 04:20:19 am
So I thought I'd pop by to clarify that despite the rumours, Sweden is not not closed down. We're just less closed down. We just don't have police running around and fining everybody who goes outside (in fact they want people to go outside, they just don't want them to be around other people). Lots of businesses are closed down and workers no-work-to-do-on-noticed. Everyone who's even the slightest bit ill is to remain at home (which wouldn't be possible in the US because sick leave isn't the same) -- that's why I was home the other week for just the tiniest of cold syndromes. The health inspections are warning and shutting down venues that don't follow the recommendations regarding spacing and services. Things that are capable of going online/from the home is being made so.
The whole Swedish response hinges on the idea that we can be responsible and change how we behave, not just going on as normal.
Post by: martinuzz on May 01, 2020, 06:06:04 am
Most were stopped by the police, but some even managed to reach the senators.
Some senators responded by putting on bulletproof vests.
The Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, refused to be intimidated by machineguns and declared another 4 weeks of lockdown.
EDIT: Heh, looking at the photo that comes with the news article... Those heavily armed protestors look not much older than 16-17.
You're lucky it didn't turn into a bloodbath.
Guns + people of an age where the part of the brain that oversees consequences is not fully developed = a recipe for disaster
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 01, 2020, 09:20:12 am
In Michigan, heavily armed protestors managed to force entry to the parliament building in Lansing, in an attempt to force the government to lift the lockdown.Apparently, part of the controversy is that she declared another month of State of Emergency without legislative approval, though the *armed fucking right wing conspiracy theorists* are entirely unjustified.
Most were stopped by the police, but some even managed to reach the senators.
Some senators responded by putting on bulletproof vests.
The Governor, Gretchen Whitmer, refused to be intimidated by machineguns and declared another 4 weeks of lockdown.
EDIT: Heh, looking at the photo that comes with the news article... Those heavily armed protestors look not much older than 16-17.
You're lucky it didn't turn into a bloodbath.
Guns + people of an age where the part of the brain that oversees consequences is not fully developed = a recipe for disaster
Edit: state legislature is GOP controlled, they opposed a State of Emergency extension.
Edit2: Apparently Whitmer's been a dumbass in terms of closure details (I think she originally exempted churches from an assembly ban), but right wing paramilitary protesters still not justified.
Post by: McTraveller on May 01, 2020, 09:24:15 am
I think people want to say the extended shelter-at-home in Michigan is retribution, but it's really because we are still seeing 1000+ new cases per day and 100+ deaths per day.
Also Michigan definitely isn't in "lockdown" - if you listen to the daily news, we still have traffic jams on the main highways around Detroit on a daily basis. Only some of us are taking it seriously.
The population is just annoyed because schools are closed, the weather is finally nice but all our outdoor activities are closed so people really are suffering from cabin fever. Add guns to that, and the surprising rural population of Michigan once you get out of Detroit (people in this state really are "all of Michigan versus Detroit and Ann Arbor") when it comes to demographics.
Post by: scriver on May 01, 2020, 09:38:15 am
Post by: MrRoboto75 on May 01, 2020, 10:06:44 am
If Michigan is a mitten, which finger du you live on?
that severed one off to the side
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 01, 2020, 11:19:25 am
https://mobile.twitter.com/PAMJ84/status/1256250459729399809
Post by: Starver on May 01, 2020, 12:31:17 pm
(Tests per day = tests taken and processed today + tests previously taken but processed today + tests taken, but not yet processed, today + tests received by people today but not yet returned for processing + tests sent out to people today but not yet even received..?)
I think we need to look at the rolling totals into next week and beyond to get rid of double-counting and make sure it's not just desperate spin.
Post by: martinuzz on May 01, 2020, 12:36:01 pm
Post by: Starver on May 01, 2020, 12:48:27 pm
Or we've just been in a Disney movie about a no-hope sports team that has were totally unable to test anyone in the first half of the game, before getting a hearfelt half-time speech from a basketball-playing dog with mind of a computer, owned by telekinetic alien kids, who has found redemption and love due to assistance from a pirate ghost. And from nineteen down in the fifth quarter, they suddenly score five touchdowns and an eagle to get one more home run than the prison officers on rollerblades, and managed to stop the dots on their hands going red and turning them into soylent green.
Post by: Iduno on May 01, 2020, 01:12:55 pm
You know I'm speaking for myself here but I'm not going to any of these fucking things that reopen. Not even to get my desperately needed haircut, which is 4 months lateJust do what I do, I haven't had a haircut in like fifteen years. Need is relative when you have hair ties or somethin'.
Nah man, I choose life.
Though yeah, panama city here in florida is apparently opening up their beaches again next week. I think I'm just going to not go anywhere near that city for a few more weeks.
Though that said, local area's looking to open stuff like libraries and whatnot back up in the next week or two, too. On one hand it's sorta' desperately needed cause we're a rural shithole and a fair amount of folks like, don't have internet access, and without it are having serious trouble getting, y'know, help. On the other hand, fucking crow plague.
Florida is perfectly* safe.
*Assuming you trust their numbers, even though they've announced they are no longer counting COVID deaths.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 01, 2020, 01:49:21 pm
That's at a constant rate. The way they apparently ramped up testing in the last couple of days means testing kits will achieve The Singularity before this month is out.That Disney movie sounds great, what;s it called? :) :D
Or we've just been in a Disney movie about a no-hope sports team that has were totally unable to test anyone in the first half of the game, before getting a hearfelt half-time speech from a basketball-playing dog with mind of a computer, owned by telekinetic alien kids, who has found redemption and love due to assistance from a pirate ghost. And from nineteen down in the fifth quarter, they suddenly score five touchdowns and an eagle to get one more home run than the prison officers on rollerblades, and managed to stop the dots on their hands going red and turning them into soylent green.
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 01, 2020, 01:54:52 pm
Space Jam: The Corona YearsThat's at a constant rate. The way they apparently ramped up testing in the last couple of days means testing kits will achieve The Singularity before this month is out.That Disney movie sounds great, what;s it called? :) :D
Or we've just been in a Disney movie about a no-hope sports team that has were totally unable to test anyone in the first half of the game, before getting a hearfelt half-time speech from a basketball-playing dog with mind of a computer, owned by telekinetic alien kids, who has found redemption and love due to assistance from a pirate ghost. And from nineteen down in the fifth quarter, they suddenly score five touchdowns and an eagle to get one more home run than the prison officers on rollerblades, and managed to stop the dots on their hands going red and turning them into soylent green.
Post by: nenjin on May 01, 2020, 02:40:10 pm
Post by: Reelya on May 01, 2020, 02:41:48 pm
That Disney movie sounds great, what;s it called? :) :D
It's a mash-up of a number of different movies, mostly very old movies
As a guess it's these ones:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mighty_Ducks (no hope team)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Bud (basketball dog)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Computer_Wore_Tennis_Shoes (computer brain)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_to_Witch_Mountain_(1975_film) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_to_Witch_Mountain_(1975_film)) (telekinetic alien kids)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackbeard%27s_Ghost (pirate ghost)
EDIT: oh and I missed the last bit, it goes from plot-points of Disney movies to dystopian and very-not-Disney sci-fi movies:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rollerball_(1975_film) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rollerball_(1975_film))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run_(film) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logan%27s_Run_(film))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soylent_Green
EDIT2: had to edit it again realizing I'd missed some movies. There could be 1-2 more references in there that I missed.
Post by: TamerVirus on May 01, 2020, 05:25:36 pm
So now you have ghastly things like this funeral home (https://abcnews.go.com/US/state-suspends-brooklyn-funeral-homes-licence-stored-dozens/story?id=70451543) storing piles of bodies in bog standard Uhaul trucks
"Urist was forced to endure the decay of a friend "
Post by: Iduno on May 01, 2020, 06:17:29 pm
That's at a constant rate. The way they apparently ramped up testing in the last couple of days means testing kits will achieve The Singularity before this month is out.That Disney movie sounds great, what;s it called? :) :D
Or we've just been in a Disney movie about a no-hope sports team that has were totally unable to test anyone in the first half of the game, before getting a hearfelt half-time speech from a basketball-playing dog with mind of a computer, owned by telekinetic alien kids, who has found redemption and love due to assistance from a pirate ghost. And from nineteen down in the fifth quarter, they suddenly score five touchdowns and an eagle to get one more home run than the prison officers on rollerblades, and managed to stop the dots on their hands going red and turning them into soylent green.
It appears to be an amalgamation of half of Disney's movies, because they're all quite similar.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 01, 2020, 07:04:37 pm
Post by: Reelya on May 01, 2020, 08:15:54 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 01, 2020, 09:00:54 pm
Back to Coronavirus, or semi related
My state is doing absentee ballots. I thought I’d mention that since we usually hear about the ones that aren’t allowing those
Post by: hector13 on May 01, 2020, 11:07:12 pm
Johnny boy won’t close for nuthin’!
Post by: Reelya on May 01, 2020, 11:43:30 pm
Actually it's because I work from home now and I need some snacks for my breaks.
Post by: TD1 on May 02, 2020, 03:10:17 am
healthy cookies
Post by: King Zultan on May 02, 2020, 04:18:35 am
I have developed healthy cookies.IMPOSSIBLE, that's the kind of shit that causes universes to explode!
healthy cookies
Post by: wierd on May 02, 2020, 04:28:48 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 02, 2020, 05:25:10 am
I have discovered delicious "tastes like movie theater popcorn", that is good for you, and contains 0 transfats, and contains no butter.Does it also not contain any popcorn, and taste like movie theatre?
Post by: wierd on May 02, 2020, 05:30:07 am
It does not taste like a movie theater. Just the popcorn one finds inside one. Without the greasy mouth-coating after sensation, and with ironic health benefits instead of deficits.
Seriously-- I use an EcoLution microwave popcorn "pitcher". Put in:
3tbs popcorn.
1tsp granulated salt.
1tbs avocado oil*
2tbs water
Combine ingredients in popper. Give it a good slosh to dissolve the salt real good. Heat in microwave on high between 6 and 7 minutes, or until fewer than 3 pops per second occurs. Enjoy.
* Not all avocado oils are created equal. AVOID "great value" brand. It tastes like pressed pine needles, and will produce god awful popcorn. I use "BetterBody Foods (https://www.foodservicedirect.com/better-body-foods-naturally-refined-avocado-oil-16-9-ounce-6-per-case-22994769.html?gclid=Cj0KCQjwtLT1BRD9ARIsAMH3BtVHeJt2KKLeman7yoP3LBrWB-Kmx8VUWHYcYdrePhXHDNbLsopjgccaAk3oEALw_wcB)" brand. It is neutral, light and buttery tasting. Good stuff. Mostly mono-unsaturated fats. Instead of CLOGGING your arteries, it actually helps to UNCLOG them instead. Irony!
Post by: King Zultan on May 02, 2020, 05:54:51 am
1tbs avocado oil*Sounded like it might be good until you go to that, I don't like avocados and I doubt I'd like the oil that comes from them.
Post by: Iduno on May 02, 2020, 09:25:11 am
Pardon the tinfoil hattery, but do you suppose the efforts to prevent absentee and mail-in ballots are so the powers-that-be can assert that it's too dangerous to vote, thereby extending the regime? People can't safely go out and vote, so we can't elect, right?
No, because the ruling class also keeps suggesting you go out and vote, and that it's safe to do so. The goal appears to be to kill off a large swath of the poor and working class.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 02, 2020, 10:47:21 am
I have developed healthy cookies.what are the ingredients?
healthy cookies
Post by: wierd on May 02, 2020, 11:26:21 am
1tbs avocado oil*Sounded like it might be good until you go to that, I don't like avocados and I doubt I'd like the oil that comes from them.
It does not taste like avocados.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 02, 2020, 11:28:22 am
1tbs avocado oil*Sounded like it might be good until you go to that, I don't like avocados and I doubt I'd like the oil that comes from them.
It does not taste like avocados.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: TD1 on May 02, 2020, 11:34:55 am
Coconut flour,
Dark chocolate chips,
Salt,
Vanilla extract
Honey (Optional)
Post by: Frumple on May 02, 2020, 11:52:37 am
It does not taste like avocados.If I had a dollar for every time I've heard someone say something like that and be wrong, I'd be able to go and get a few extra meals that didn't have any goddamn onions in them :P
Quarantine cooking is probably going to have some interesting stuff come out of it over the next year or so, though. I guess it's one of the few potential silver linings of the crow plague.
Post by: TD1 on May 02, 2020, 11:54:37 am
Personally, I could cook meals before this. It's the baking that's new.
Post by: wierd on May 02, 2020, 12:31:18 pm
I have been eating yard weeds for weeks. I know how to make them delicious. Most people can't properly identify lawn weeds though, so I try not to advocate for eating them. Just leaves more for me though.
Right now, it's lambsquarters season! Lots of "I can't believe it's not spinach!" right now.
Post by: NJW2000 on May 02, 2020, 12:35:18 pm
Wild garlic is also in season, so that's been great.
Post by: martinuzz on May 02, 2020, 12:37:44 pm
Post by: wierd on May 02, 2020, 12:43:24 pm
All we have are dead nettles. (Henbit and purple deadnettle). Both are going out of season right now. Now it is pigweed season, of which lambsquarters are one.
I ate the deadnettles weeks ago, with garlic, egg noodle, and black beans. Take FOREVER to cook because of the coarsness of the things, but once cooked down, not bad at all.
The lambsquarters, once cooked, are very difficult to distinguish (flavor wise) from spinnach. Soon the pine pollen cones will be producing. Then it's time to go out with an old pillowcase and pick as many as possible for the free flour substitute. (there is a decorative planting of them right beside the nursing home on the north side that I have been observing for the past few days. Cones are large enough to pick as a salad green right now. A few more days and they will start producing pollen. You collect them in the old pillowcase, then take them home. Put them in a tall airtight kitchen storage bin (still in pillowcase), and dash the bag against the side vigorously. This dislodges the pollen, which passes through the pillowcase easily-- but leaves the cone scales in the pillowcase. Very easy processing that way. Then you just cut your normal flour 50% and use the pine pollen for the other 50%, and have bright golden breads and such. Very high in quality healthy fats and proteins. If you are a guy, they are also beneficially high in phyto-androgens, and will work like taking a testosterone supplement.)
Post by: Starver on May 02, 2020, 02:30:54 pm
edited to reinsert the second 'y' that was my typo, not my reado.
Post by: martinuzz on May 02, 2020, 05:22:08 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 02, 2020, 06:51:43 pm
I’m curious what went through the mind of whoever made that comic1tbs avocado oil*Sounded like it might be good until you go to that, I don't like avocados and I doubt I'd like the oil that comes from them.
It does not taste like avocados.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Ziusudra on May 02, 2020, 07:33:02 pm
Warning:NSFW link ahead! It's called Oglaf. Edit: link removedI’m curious what went through the mind of whoever made that comic1tbs avocado oil*Sounded like it might be good until you go to that, I don't like avocados and I doubt I'd like the oil that comes from them.
It does not taste like avocados.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on May 03, 2020, 01:07:04 am
> Thread descends into sex with avocados
It's like a metaphor for politics in the US.
Post by: Rolan7 on May 03, 2020, 01:31:39 am
(Oglaf is 80% an explicit sex comic. It's hilarious, but "NSFW" doesn't properly describe it)
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on May 03, 2020, 01:37:59 am
The oils, though.
(Oglaf is 80% an explicit sex comic. It's hilarious, but "NSFW" doesn't properly describe it)
Yeah, it's more of a sexual comedy meets cosmic horror.
Post by: Frumple on May 03, 2020, 02:09:57 am
Post by: Reelya on May 03, 2020, 02:24:24 am
Post by: Max™ on May 03, 2020, 02:28:23 am
I'm rocking a buzzcut happily because the only hair I care about is on my face, the full beard stays, even in summer, so the head hair is the loser.
As for attempts to make the election go away so Trump can just keep being president, that's actually one of the funniest possible outcomes, because he's getting Uncle Phil'D the fuck out of the white house on Jan 20th or whatever when his term expires.
1.16 million known cases.
67k known deaths.
Dumbfuck recently said something to the effect of "only 60~70k deaths would be a victory" but it doesn't feel like much of a victory from this side.
Post by: Kagus on May 03, 2020, 03:11:02 am
I mean, it was literally created as an excuse for the artist/author to make porn.Yes/sorta. It started off as a porn comic, but they ended up getting kinda carried away with the jokes and realized that they weren't doing nearly enough sexytimes to count as a porn comic, and basically just said "fuck it".
Now there's explicit nudity roughly every other strip, and it's generally tied in with a particular joke.
Also: Regardless of what content the strip itself might have, the site does run banner ads that can contain graphic sexual imagery. That was Tarn's main objection when I asked about linking a strip years ago (I think the Oglaf depiction of dwarves should be fairly recognizable for DF'ers).
Post by: McTraveller on May 03, 2020, 07:46:49 am
I thought Worldometers was pretty good for collating the "official" numbers independently from each state.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 03, 2020, 08:13:31 am
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
That being said, for what I've seen around the reported confirmed covid19 deaths for the US in May 1 are around 2000, rather than 3000. Nonwithstanding that it might be revised down the line (weekend effect), is it possible that your wife is talking about excess mortality rather than confirmed covid19 cases?
Post by: martinuzz on May 03, 2020, 08:27:15 am
Probably a good idea not to actually link to it btw, since whatever's on the current page has a high probability of being against forum rules.As long as the full graphic content is not posted on the forum here I see no harm in providing a link with NSFW warning.
It's not like this is an extremist religious forum where someone might take offense to mentioning the existence of a comic with sexual content.
Post by: scriver on May 03, 2020, 08:44:50 am
Which makes sense I guess.
Post by: McTraveller on May 03, 2020, 08:45:07 am
I dunno about Worldometers overall, but I know for my state they are using my state's official numbers, even including the ones that my state is "estimating".
Post by: Iduno on May 03, 2020, 09:34:13 am
Worldometers is not a great source, IMO as I've found them to both over and undercount things. I've been following FT instead. John Hopkins is supposed to be good as well but the comparisons they offer are limited
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
That being said, for what I've seen around the reported confirmed covid19 deaths for the US in May 1 are around 2000, rather than 3000. Nonwithstanding that it might be revised down the line (weekend effect), is it possible that your wife is talking about excess mortality rather than confirmed covid19 cases?
Also, we have a lot of places that still refuse to test, and are refusing to release cause of death, in order to have the numbers look better. In addition to the sudden 50% increase when they start checking on people who haven't been seen in months.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 03, 2020, 10:19:49 am
Post by: scriver on May 03, 2020, 10:30:19 am
Post by: Frumple on May 03, 2020, 10:45:20 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 03, 2020, 11:40:37 am
Post by: Starver on May 03, 2020, 11:44:37 am
Or lack of something like 'common' flu this year (with precautionary isolation early on) meant someone on their last legs find themselves getting a little further on the legs they are left with, until now.
So you need to be a bit careful just taking the figures across the last year (or, as per ninja, a few years, though the more years the better). And can't say "it was a case of COVID".
Still, there'll be a blip, I'm sure, standing out over all other blips, and then you get to work with meta-analysis to tie down how much chance there is that any part of that blip was just random and what's left is a signal.
Post by: misko27 on May 03, 2020, 12:04:56 pm
Not to mention our only protection against the omnipresent peril of undercounting.
Post by: scriver on May 03, 2020, 12:13:24 pm
(I hope you don't take offense misko)
Post by: misko27 on May 03, 2020, 01:32:56 pm
Post by: Max™ on May 03, 2020, 02:21:58 pm
As it is, ft is obviously too low because it is lower than worldometer which is obviously too low in the US for any number of reasons but just the most obvious indication of the problem is that the tested numbers are probably fairly reliable, and we're looking at 7.1 mil tests which found 1.1 mil cases.
There is no situation in which it is possible to imagine we're magically finding all infections at a rate of 1 per 7 tested, it would be difficult to argue we were finding them all if we were several times higher on that positive:negative ratio or a lot higher than 21k tested per 1 mil pop, but 1:7 is, as they say, a steep hill to climb, or something like that.
Post by: martinuzz on May 03, 2020, 03:26:52 pm
He said that being in hospital, and seeing that his blood oxygen values kept dropping despite having an oxygen tube in his nose pumping litres of oxygen into him, scared the fuck out of him. At some point he thought he was not going to survive.
He named his newborn child after the two doctors that treated him.
At a press conference, it became clear that Johnson is still very much out of breath. His lungs got quite a beating.
Post by: mko on May 03, 2020, 03:53:35 pm
Excess mortality being amount of deaths this time of year compared to last year (or maybe an average of many years?)?This is a good explanation of how simplest possible solution works, that is already very useful. Though it will be almost certainly average of multiple years, not just comparing with previous year. Often outliers (like current COVID period) will be excluded.
But often it is more complicated to better handle various complexities.
See https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/methods/
Graphs are at https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#excess-mortality and cover some European countries (or parts of them)
Quote
Modelling of the baseline
The hypothesis made to generate the model are very simple and do not aim at describing what really happens but aims at providing simple principle for modelling.
Hypothesis
The main mortality pattern in European countries is a Poisson distributed time series following a trend and in some cases a sine cycle of a period of one year.
During winter and summer, that process is modified by additional factors mainly related to winter infections such as influenza and summer heat waves leading to yearly excess of deaths of variable amplitude.
Parts of Spring and Autumn are less likely to be influenced by additional processes leading to excess deaths and the main pattern of mortality can therefore be modelling using only those periods, resulting in a baseline being the number of deaths expected when no particular process increases mortality.
A stable time series process can be modelled using only samples of the time series.
Type of models
Four slightly different models can be chosen by the user, to better fit the local pattern and specific population subgroups. The trend is modelled by either by a straight line or by a linear spline with 2 knots, meaning that non linear trends can be modelled using 3 different linear segments joining at the knots, equally spaced along the data set. Seasonality is modelled by a sine curve of period one year, but model without seasonality can also be designed.
For the age groups defined for EuroMOMO, the models by default will be
0 to 4 and 5 to 14: trend = linear trend, no seasonality
15 to 64, >= 65 and Total: linear trend, seasonality 25
Post by: Teneb on May 03, 2020, 06:40:19 pm
Part of me wants to do a big post on my LAmeripol thread about the rest of the bullshit Brasil is going through, but I get too damn furious.
Post by: Iduno on May 03, 2020, 07:06:09 pm
Of course not. We're not... too worried, not with everything else going on. And colonoscopy is inherently a very funny procedure, down to the giant gallon-sized bottle of disgusting medicine they have you drink to flush out your intestines with diarrhea, dryly named "Golytely"; humor is the only tool capable of making sense of it. But suppose it was more serious? What would she do? Nothing's open. Hospital space simply didn't exist to do something like that. What about others with worse cases?
That was...interesting medicine. Considering my issue was "diarrhea from everything", my doctor wasn't entirely wrong about the "you haven't seen anything yet."
Post by: Bumber on May 03, 2020, 09:34:42 pm
I see many plump peoplerollingwalking on the roads.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Frumple on May 04, 2020, 04:31:07 pm
Really is a sort of microcosm of both how fucked the prisons are and how abandoned the population in general in a lot of places stateside is, though :-\
Post by: scriver on May 05, 2020, 12:33:04 am
Post by: wierd on May 05, 2020, 02:47:20 am
Sorry, but that's what my brain interprets these kinds of things as.
Post by: martinuzz on May 05, 2020, 04:22:29 am
In an interview with National Geographic Fauci said " the best evidence shows that the virus was not created in a lab in China. All evidence points at the virus having originated in nature, and after that it was transmitted to others."
This is a disappointment for the Trump administration, which increasingly targets China and blames it for the pandemic. Last week Trump said he had seen convincing evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although he refused to say what the evidence is.
Past sunday, Pompeo increased pressure on China, saying he had seen 'enormously much evidence' to support the laboratory theory. Pompeo too refused to comment on what evidence that might be.
It is expected that death threats against Fauci will increase.
He is being guarded 24/7 by the Secret Service nowadays because of death threats from Trump supporters.
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 04:45:06 am
Fauci has rejected the theory that the virus is made in a lab in Wuhan, contradicting Trump and Pompeo.
In an interview with National Geographic Fauci said " the best evidence shows that the virus was not created in a lab in China. All evidence points at the virus having originated in nature, and after that it was transmitted to others."
This is a disappointment for the Trump administration, which increasingly targets China and blames it for the pandemic. Last week Trump said he had seen convincing evidence that the virus originated in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, although he refused to say what the evidence is.
Past sunday, Pompeo increased pressure on China, saying he had seen 'enormously much evidence' to support the laboratory theory. Pompeo too refused to comment on what evidence that might be.
It is expected that death threats against Fauci will increase.
He is being guarded 24/7 by the Secret Service nowadays because of death threats from Trump supporters.
When Trump says the virus outbreak originated in a lab, he doesn't necessarily mean the virus was engineered there. The Wuhan Institue of Virology studies coronaviruses in intermediate horseshoe bats. It's not at all far-fetched to say a virus escaped due to negligence.
Quote from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/
What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.
"During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,"
Quote
As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.
But sure, the outbreak probably started in the Wuhan wetmarket, where they don't even sell bats. Let's keep believing that.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 05, 2020, 04:54:59 am
But it's also not true since the early patients weren't lab workers. They were market customers.
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 05:04:54 am
That's just the Trump omnihedge at work - take every possible position and then retroactively instruct the public that you only ever believed the one you liked the outcome of most. Even if that were true, then it still didn't "come from the lab" in any sense except to stir up more hostility to China. It came from the general bat population and would have made the zoonotic jump whenever circumstances aligned.Senator Tom Cotton way saying it before Trump was. Here's Cotton's clarification to his original statements all the way back in February 18. (https://www.foxnews.com/media/sen-tom-cotton-coronavirus-origins) (Apologies in advance for Fox News link, but this is what the Trump supporters in question are being told.)
Media has been strawmanning and false dichotomizing the issue ever since. It's either a bioweapon or it came from the wetmarket, and nothing in between.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 05, 2020, 05:09:33 am
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 05:14:20 am
But it's also not true since the early patients weren't lab workers. They were market customers."Early patients" doesn't cover mild or asymptomatic cases. Also:
Quote from: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally
In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. "No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. "That’s a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
Tom Cotton is a contender for biggest psychopath in the US government and an absolute warmonger lunatic. Him thinking that only proves that it's probably false.Ad hominem.
Post by: wierd on May 05, 2020, 05:16:38 am
https://www.foxnews.com/us/mississippi-reeves-coronavirus-reopening-spike-cases-deaths
You know shit's real when fucking FOX NEWS reports on it like this.
But suurre-- REOPEN! FOR THE ECONOMY! Human life is cheap and abundant! We gotta keep those wheels of industry greased! /s
Not just Mississippi either.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/coronavirus-live-updates.html (texas)
https://www.kmov.com/news/missouri-sees-spike-in-reported-covid-19-cases-on-day-state-reopens/article_1fbf4efa-8e3f-11ea-aa20-9ffbae671f3c.html (Missouri)
https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/04/23/coronavirus-960-floridians-have-died-from-covid-19-as-state-leaders-look-toward-reopening-the-economy/ (Florida)
It's almost like--- THEY DO NOT UNDERSTAND THE MATH OR SOMETHING! /s
In terms of why Corona Virus is a thing---
This is the consequence of a massive buildup of humans, that travel a lot, and that live in very dense packed settings. Something like this could happen anywhere, really. It just happened to be China.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 05, 2020, 05:17:55 am
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 05:24:19 am
Not if the hominem has spent his entire political career jerking off to pictures of carpet bombings and trying to generate more.It is by definition if you're ignoring the argument itself.
Quote
ad ho·mi·nem
/ˌad ˈhämənəm/
adjective
(of an argument or reaction) directed against a person rather than the position they are maintaining.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 05, 2020, 05:24:49 am
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 05:26:44 am
Well, considering that everyone else, including the US intelligence services, disregards Trump's theory, and that Trump refused to provide evidence when pressed, I'm going to go ahead and ignore the bioweapon theory for the time being.As should everyone. Nobody in this thread has claimed that.
Cotton has said the bioweapon question is worth asking. Trump is as clear as mud in what he means by "originating" in a lab.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 05, 2020, 05:29:02 am
Post by: Kagus on May 05, 2020, 05:41:15 am
...times by 20?Actually, duodecim is 12. 20 is vīgintī.
Only reason I remember that is because I tried making a Bay12 faction in Shores of Hazeron back when that was a thing, and Google translate told me the Latin name would therefore be Laurea (the other "bay" :P) Duodecim.
Post by: Starver on May 05, 2020, 06:24:20 am
He is being guarded 24/7 by the Secret Service nowadays because of death threats from Trump supporters.I can only imagine the canteen talk between the guys tasked to protect him from Trump supporters and those tasked to
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 06:30:39 am
Here's the original article (https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/coronavirus/bombshell-dossier-lays-out-case-against-chinese-bat-virus-program/news-story/55add857058731c9c71c0e96ad17da60) from the Daily Telegraph, who received the leaked document.
Spoiler: Snippets from the article: (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: A timeline: (click to show/hide)
Post by: Max™ on May 05, 2020, 06:31:32 am
Though many people think some guy named Dewey came up with the library catalog format called the "Dewey Decimal System", it was actually a total coincidence because it was really a lesser known library employee obsessed with the number 12 who suggested converting the catalogs over to his "duodecimal system" but nobody was familiar enough with thinking in base12 for it to catch on but the decimal version worked great except it makes the "duo" part confusing so they were like "we can't use duo anymore, so do we really need something before decimal" and their boss was like "that's perfect, you're gonna be famous some day Mr. Dewey" and he was like "but my last name is Harris!"...times by 20?Actually, duodecim is 12. 20 is vīgintī.
Only reason I remember that is because I tried making a Bay12 faction in Shores of Hazeron back when that was a thing, and Google translate told me the Latin name would therefore be Laurea (the other "bay" :P) Duodecim.
Post by: Starver on May 05, 2020, 07:28:36 am
But sure, the outbreak probably started in the Wuhan wetmarket, where they don't even sell bats. Let's keep believing that.No bats? None at all? That I would find hard to believe. In some corner or other of the hellish menagerie.
But even if not, a common theory is bats>...>pangolins>...>humans, and any of the (inc. missing) links could have occured at caging areas prior to the market. Even the first-in-human case, if that was a trader (or more than one) who passed on more than animals at the market after visiting the back-end wholesale source one prior morning.
Hard to prove. Especially given the early potentially key cases probably had higher mortality because it was before anyone even knew it was special and (coverups or not) needed more treatment than hot chicken soup. Or pangolin, maybe.
On the other side of the speculation spectrum, I've seen (baseless) suggestions that a given CCTV screenshot supposedly depicts a named Wuhan lab doctor stopping off at a train station halfway between her lab and another lace of work to drop off a piece of dry-ice in a bin. So says the commentary, though I went no further down that particular pangolin-hole. Maybe it's actually the station they say[1], maybe it's the person they say[2], and as for the bin-thing. It's a stupid nefarious plan. Who starts digging into bins (on stations - even if there's homeless in the area they'd probably stay away from the monitored concourse) or deliberately breathing in deep near them? If you were on a train with some infectious agent then do something with it on the train... Casually smear it on the door button with your gloved hand when departing, or chuck a fragment of your time-releasing frozen pathogen into a handy blowing vent as you move along a carriage (normal behavior when you know your stop's station exit is near a different set of train doors from where your entry doors were, shuffle along casually picking your moments to stop by vents you like the look of) or leave things on seats that you know will be touched by the next person sitting there.
Instead of that, conspicuouly alight and reboard? Not necessarilly going to he flashed up as an immediate code-red to send the SWAT team for, but in a country where CCTV is not just their main broadcaster, and government-sanctioned plots would be far less clunky than this film-script of a contrived situation that's better for being watched by an audience with disbelief levitation skilks than having any practical benefits...
No, on the whole I think a (maybe) bat, in a given day being in amongst thousands of other bats and animals in a scene that is repeated day in/day out for years and years, is not so unlikely a source as some apparently intelligent people trying to work against the government using a stupid method or a supremely controlling government sponsoring something underhand (on its own territory!) and yet failing to prevent key damning footage from surviving and leaking to the world at large.
There's many other intermediate explanations, too. Like starting off trying to create a false-false-flag operation (they have someone set to be the fall-girl, either the woman in the blurry footage or the person they were conveniently impersonating) to 'prove' external meddling on their citizens, then had to fudge things when the results went differently from how they hoped. But even that is more screenplay than actual spycraft, so don't take this as being 'my theory' and doubt heavily any such 'serious' claims that might arise elsewhere onnthis topic. I guarantee you I'm not part of a false-false-false-flag propaganda plot, or[3] my name name's not Jason Bourne...
(Edit: I include the accidental release of Lab-virus to the outside world as an intermediate theory. Though 96% (was it?) genetic match is really not much at all, even at viral lengths. Many bits of a virus need to be very much like the bits of another virus (especially if of a family) to be viable and not highly reconfigured. Given the whole ~60% or so 'match' between human and banana, by the popular meme, and that's across two major clades of life. And if a lab researcher went, along with many others who shop in Wuhan, to the Wet Market and got the first external step infection (of a sample mishandled after isolating from bats, maybe bought in their prior visit?) then it's virtually indistinguishable and unprovable either way.)
[1] 99% of those that would state it as fact wouldn't bother to check it was, and the 1% likely wouldn't say if they found it didn't match. And then if I spent time to check and found it false I'd be ignored, and if true then that just meant the 'source' wasn't lazy and using the first google search item for a station CCTV clip that they thought could be twisted, but found something correctly located that could be twisted.
[2] Given the res, the doubts in [1], above, are even more pronounced.
[3] Normal-Or, not Exclusive-Or.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 05, 2020, 07:47:03 am
But sure, the outbreak probably started in the Wuhan wetmarket, where they don't even sell bats. Let's keep believing that.No bats? None at all? That I would find hard to believe. In some corner or other of the hellish menagerie.
TBH that's one of the things I found the oddest about Bumber's post. I mean, who the hell knows what kind of things they sell in that kind of market? I wager even a local wouldn't be able to put his hand in the fire about this matter
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 08:28:21 am
No bats? None at all? That I would find hard to believe. In some corner or other of the hellish menagerie.From what I heard (can't find source), the bats live far away from the market and are more of a rich-person delicacy. Wet markets contain fresh goods at affordable prices.
But even if not, a common theory is bats>...>pangolins>...>humans, and any of the (inc. missing) links could have occured at caging areas prior to the market. Even the first-in-human case, if that was a trader (or more than one) who passed on more than animals at the market after visiting the back-end wholesale source one prior morning.I've heard that, and those remain possibilities.
However, the earliest confirmed case was an individual who got sick on December 1st and had no connection to the market. Due to incubation time, this means that bat/whatever-to-human transmission occurred back in November. The infection cluster tied mostly* to the market was noticed on December 26th. Given incubation time, that's mid-late December. This would indicate that the wet market outbreak may have been due to human-to-human transmission. Animal-to-human transmission occurring a second time is also possible.
Given what we know now about the asymptomatic case rate being as high as 88%, the virus could've been spreading around Wuhan all throughout December, with most of the symptomatic cases being confused with regular pneumonia. Only at the wet market did they get enough symptomatic cases in one place.
*According to this article (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally), 13 of the 41 cases in that cluster had no link to the market.
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 05, 2020, 08:54:31 am
Post by: TamerVirus on May 05, 2020, 09:16:19 am
Meanwhile, Russian doctors complaining about lack of PPE have been falling out of windows at an increased rate as of late
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 05, 2020, 09:25:13 am
France has now confirmed a COVID positive sample dating back to December 27 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested)
Meanwhile, Russian doctors complaining about lack of PPE have been falling out of windows at an increased rate as of late
Tbh there have been rumors for a while about there being cases earlier than thought. A doctor in the US tested himself in March and was IgG +, he reported having what he thought was "a nasty flu" back in January. In Italy they're on it, and today the WHO issued an official recommendation to review all suspicious pneumonias from late 2019
Post by: martinuzz on May 05, 2020, 10:05:45 am
When the security officer told her she was not allowed to enter the Family Dollar store without a facemask, she tantrumed and spit him in the face.
Not much later, her husband and son came in, and according to eyewitnesses, the son shot the security guard in the back of the head.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 05, 2020, 10:09:50 am
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 10:10:33 am
Keep in mind, Bumber, 5 Eyes is an intelligence Agency aligned against China. Them contradicting public statements by US intelligence agencies makes me think they're mainly propogandizing here. If you have secondary sources, that would help.A lot of the content in the dossier is stuff that has been mentioned in news articles over the last few months.
Shouldn't be to hard to find information on how they denounced Li Wenliang (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang#Whistleblower_in_2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and others, or how Chinese citizens had to use emojis and other methods (https://qz.com/1816219/chinese-internet-rallied-to-save-a-censored-coronavirus-story/) to get around the Chinese censors.
This article (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3052966/chinese-laboratory-first-shared-coronavirus-genome-world-ordered) by the South China Morning Post mentions how they shut down the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre a day after they released the genome sequence. Article on the destruction of samples (https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/how-early-signs-of-the-coronavirus-were-spotted-spread-and-throttled-in-china).
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 05, 2020, 10:11:24 am
Keep in mind, Bumber, 5 Eyes is an intelligence Agency aligned against China. Them contradicting public statements by US intelligence agencies makes me think they're mainly propogandizing here. If you have secondary sources, that would help.
I actually read a news item yesterday saying that 5 Eyes agencies thought the virus did come from the wet market. ???
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 05, 2020, 12:54:49 pm
Also, even if the Chinese government did cover it up for four months without taking action (which I doubt), they're still reacting better than the US has, dear lord. And yes, Poo, I also heard that. Hence my *intense* confusion. Is the daily telegraph biased, maybe?Keep in mind, Bumber, 5 Eyes is an intelligence Agency aligned against China. Them contradicting public statements by US intelligence agencies makes me think they're mainly propogandizing here. If you have secondary sources, that would help.
I actually read a news item yesterday saying that 5 Eyes agencies thought the virus did come from the wet market. ???
Edit: hard to tell bias. I do agree China did/is covering up, for the record. Just not that they made the virus intentionally.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 05, 2020, 01:49:38 pm
Also, even if the Chinese government did cover it up for four months without taking action (which I doubt), they're still reacting better than the US has, dear lord. And yes, Poo, I also heard that. Hence my *intense* confusion. Is the daily telegraph biased, maybe?Keep in mind, Bumber, 5 Eyes is an intelligence Agency aligned against China. Them contradicting public statements by US intelligence agencies makes me think they're mainly propogandizing here. If you have secondary sources, that would help.
I actually read a news item yesterday saying that 5 Eyes agencies thought the virus did come from the wet market. ???
Edit: hard to tell bias. I do agree China did/is covering up, for the record. Just not that they made the virus intentionally.
I think they covered up and are still covering up the magnitude of the disaster*. But it´s not like this is the first zoonotic virus, or the first time a virus of this family makes the jump and causes major trouble.
* to boot, I think that a good chunk of Chinese undercounting comes from the bad bookkeeping inherent to major epidemic outbreaks.... I´ve been talking with a friend of mine who works in epidemiology and he said that much was business as usual: as a pandemic grows worse you lose track in the chaos. But I also suspect that the Chinese goverment probably wilfuly embraced this to make their numbers look better.
Mind you, I think to a lesser extent most Western goverments are doing the same (they all have agendas, they all want to claim they´re doing a better job than the rest). Just look at the excess mortality numbers.
RE: five eyes: here it is
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/five-eyes-network-contradicts-theory-covid-19-leaked-from-lab
Quote
There is no current evidence to suggest that coronavirus leaked from a Chinese research laboratory, intelligence sources have told the Guardian, contradicting recent White House claims that there is growing proof this is how the pandemic began.
The sources also insisted that a “15-page dossier” highlighted by the Australian Daily Telegraph which accused China of a deadly cover up was not culled from intelligence from the Five Eyes network, an alliance between the UK, US, Australia, New Zealand and Canada
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/five-eyes-intelligence-indicates-novel-coronavirus-likely-did-not-originate-in-chinese-lab-1.4925622
Quote
Intelligence shared among Five Eyes nations indicates it is "highly unlikely" that the coronavirus outbreak was spread as a result of an accident in a laboratory but rather originated in a Chinese market, according to two Western officials who cited an intelligence assessment that appears to contradict claims by U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
"We think it's highly unlikely it was an accident," a Western diplomatic official with knowledge of the intelligence said. "It is highly likely it was naturally occurring and that the human infection was from natural human and animal interaction." The countries in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing coalition are coalescing around this assessment, the official said, and a second official, from a Five Eyes country, concurred with it. The U.S. has yet to make a formal assessment public.
Post by: Bumber on May 05, 2020, 06:57:53 pm
Also, even if the Chinese government did cover it up for four months without taking action (which I doubt), they're still reacting better than the US has, dear lord. And yes, Poo, I also heard that. Hence my *intense* confusion. Is the daily telegraph biased, maybe?
If it's true that China shut down domestic travel from Wuhan while keeping international travel open (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/blogs/Whathappensif/how-china-locked-down-internally-for-covid-19-but-pushed-foreign-travel/) (e.g., to Italy,) then that's in a different category of negligence compared to the US.
AFAIK, the Daily Telegraph is the only one who has the leaked dossier, and everyone else is drawing their own interpretations from that article. The DT article states that their own government of Australia thinks there's only a 5% chance that it leaked from the lab, but doesn't give any mention of where they got that number from. US says it's more likely from lab than not. Perhaps nobody has any clue whatsoever and they're all just pulling it from their asses based on their opinion towards China.
Post by: dragdeler on May 05, 2020, 07:24:08 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 05, 2020, 07:34:43 pm
Nah, mate, I feel ya. World's fucking gone mad, it's impossible to tell fact from fiction. *Hug*they're all just pulling it from their asses based on their opinion
This is the overwhelming impression I get, I've lost many social and parasocial relations over people's unability to hide their narrowminded agenda. From "friends" that would risk my family's life out of boredom, negotiating the risk unironically, to entertainers I've allways enjoyed loosing a good 60 IQ points, mostly because of pathological contrarianism...
2 months ago you were mocked for applying basic plague inc player level common sense, a game any 6 year old can beat, nowadays they want to punish you if you don't... I hate this fucking world and I'll repeat what I wrote once, no matter how tragic apparantly this didn't hurt nearly enough to get trough our thick skulls
Post by: misko27 on May 05, 2020, 07:47:21 pm
Post by: Starver on May 05, 2020, 07:56:31 pm
Because it has absolutely no overlap in responsibilities and knowledge, no siree...
(If I was a cynic, I'd say it's so he can repack the new body with more compliant individuals than he's discovered are in the old body. And it appears that I am a cynic...)
Post by: Max™ on May 05, 2020, 09:29:46 pm
In Michigan, a store security clerk was murdered by the 23-year old son of a woman whom he had refused entry because she had no facemask, which is mandatory by decree of the governor.Why do boomers get to call millenials snowflakes?
When the security officer told her she was not allowed to enter the Family Dollar store without a facemask, she tantrumed and spit him in the face.
Not much later, her husband and son came in, and according to eyewitnesses, the son shot the security guard in the back of the head.
There are lots of colors and flavors of millenials from what I've seen, but boomers are largely lily white and fragile, emotionally, mentally, and physically.
*sob sob* Oh son, whar's your fatherbrother, them mean clerks wouldn't let me in tha store ta git somemore cigs and lil debbies so I spit on him!
Donchu worry meemaw, imma go get pabro and we gunna show that sumbitch not ta mess with tha mcleary klan*!
*not that klan, the flu klux klan is similar and also seems to hate anybody with a bit of melanin, but a brand new virulent form of hatred and shitbaggery
Post by: Trekkin on May 05, 2020, 09:52:08 pm
(If I was a cynic, I'd say it's so he can repack the new body with more compliant individuals than he's discovered are in the old body. And it appears that I am a cynic...)
It's also a branding effort. He knows the backlash to the quarantine is most severe among his base, so he thinks if he has an excuse to say "reopen" more, he profits politically. Also, this lets him more effectively ignore all the adults in his administration and claim everyone not in favor of declaring National Rip Out Someone's Lungs And Cough Directly Into Their Bronchi Day is politically motivated.
Post by: feelotraveller on May 05, 2020, 10:46:41 pm
Also, even if the Chinese government did cover it up for four months without taking action (which I doubt), they're still reacting better than the US has, dear lord. And yes, Poo, I also heard that. Hence my *intense* confusion. Is the daily telegraph biased, maybe?Keep in mind, Bumber, 5 Eyes is an intelligence Agency aligned against China. Them contradicting public statements by US intelligence agencies makes me think they're mainly propogandizing here. If you have secondary sources, that would help.
I actually read a news item yesterday saying that 5 Eyes agencies thought the virus did come from the wet market. ???
Edit: hard to tell bias. I do agree China did/is covering up, for the record. Just not that they made the virus intentionally.
Just on the bias issue - the Daily Telegraph is a core paper of the Murdoch establishment, and are well known for a strong conservative bias. They are a 'tabloid' paper (I read that as 'gutter press' but then I'm me ;) ) extremely prone too clickbait hyper-sensationalised headlines and quite prone to sensationalised stories. That said it doesn't prevent them occasionally doing 'real' or unbiased reporting, so make your own call as to how they end up with exlcusive access to the leaked document.
Post by: Frumple on May 05, 2020, 10:47:35 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 05, 2020, 11:03:19 pm
Post by: wierd on May 05, 2020, 11:04:31 pm
But it fits the mold of people in power expecting to dictate reality, because they cannot handle (and have no experience) with things being the other way around.
Post by: Reelya on May 05, 2020, 11:43:35 pm
I mean this virus was almost perfect for attacking the modern world in a way it was unable to cope with.
Yup, but that doesn't actually make it any more likely that it came out of a lab. Which you're probably already aware of, I'm not saying that you don't know that, btw.
Nobody could basically make something like that without extensive field-testing to get it right. The idea that anyone can make made-to-order viruses is pure sci-fi at this point. Especially since this would have had to been made in lab conditions which didn't include human testing, making the idea that anyone would get it right even more far-fetched.
Things that are spreading in the wild are far more likely sources of an outbreak than some toy microbe in a lab, since things in the wild are constantly being challenged by natural selection to stay on track.
EDIT: and this is omitting the fact that the Wuhan lab that's near the location of the outbreak didn't work on that kind of stuff anyway.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-complicated-origins.html
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-coronavirus-did-not-leak-from-wuhan-lab-researcher-2020-4
One basic argument that comes up is the "we don't know exactly how it came from bats, so that means the lab-conspiracy explanation is more likely". But this is clearly fallacious reasoning. To paraphrase an old analogy, it's like saying that because you don't know whether the moon was formed from the Earth or captured separately, then that bolsters the "moon is made of Green Cheese" theory.
If you read what they do at that lab in the Business Insider article, you'll see why it's extremely unlikely, virtually impossible that the virus originated there. This isn't some sort of "virus breeding incubator" set-up or a genetic engineering facility, it's a lab that collects and sequences existing viruses from the wild.
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 06, 2020, 12:04:00 am
Post by: TD1 on May 06, 2020, 03:51:19 am
The best solution is an amalgamation of both scenarios.
Post by: Jimmy on May 06, 2020, 04:02:11 am
Also curious if this is why China isn't too keen on the idea.
Post by: Trekkin on May 06, 2020, 04:34:02 am
Also curious if this is why China isn't too keen on the idea.
To be fair, there's no way to conclusively prove the virus was never there, and the range of possible evidence that the virus was there (that being, primarily, the presence of the virus itself) is straightforward to destroy and therefore easy to claim could have been destroyed given its absence. It's difficult to see what such an investigation could possibly find that would change anyone's mind either way.
Even if the virus is there, it's hard to see a sequence of events that is both apparent following the investigation and epidemiologically relevant.
Post by: Starver on May 06, 2020, 05:02:22 am
*sob sob* Oh son, whar's your fatherbrother, them mean clerks wouldn't let me in tha store ta git somemore cigs and lil debbies so I spit on him!Accurately or not, my first thought on reading about that incident is that it was more "He letched at me, made the filthiest suggestions..." or whatever she needed to say to incite her kin to the same anger she felt. Heck "...tol' me I should be wearing a veil, that it was a sin to go about without my face covered" would pluck an awful lot of the 'right' strings.
Though I've heard no details, so that's in my head only.
So has anyone mentioned or noticed the murderously staggering horseshit coming out of the white house or somethin' related to it apparently suggesting covid deaths are going to zero out by the end of the month?Since February! (Since well before, actually, except for the zeroing-out bit which would have just sounded weird (https://xkcd.com/2302/) this time last year.)
If it captures and sequences viruses from the wild, maybe they had coronavirus in a petri dish somewhere, letting it mutate, until some researcher licked it or something?A pangolin burst down the lab door and released all the samples on behalf of Pangolins for the Ethical Treatment of Viruses.
The best solution is an amalgamation of both scenarios.
Post by: mko on May 06, 2020, 07:37:39 am
I mean this virus was almost perfect for attacking the modern world in a way it was unable to cope with.
That is because ones easy to mitigate were mitigated.
See for example Ebola, SARS-Cov-1 that were easier to contain and were contained.
Not contained viruses will tend to be ones that are harder to contain, as we are trying to stop them.
But it is likely that further evidence of early coverup will be discovered and other failures. Also, it would be humiliating for them to accept outside investigation. It is kind like China trying to investigate disease spread on USA carriers.Also curious if this is why China isn't too keen on the idea.
To be fair, there's no way to conclusively prove the virus was never there, and the range of possible evidence that the virus was there (that being, primarily, the presence of the virus itself) is straightforward to destroy and therefore easy to claim could have been destroyed given its absence. It's difficult to see what such an investigation could possibly find that would change anyone's mind either way.
Refusal of outside investigation is not surprising, this happens in cases where blame is entirely on other side. Like with Russia shooting down civilian plane in Ukraine, or with discovery of USSR mass murder by Germans...
Post by: Iduno on May 06, 2020, 08:36:57 am
Pretty sure this is why Australia is pushing for an independent investigation into the virus origin. That way we can have someone go there, look around, check what the lab was researching and say yes or no.
Also curious if this is why China isn't too keen on the idea.
Considering Australia is one of the 5 eyes nations claiming that China created the virus...
Post by: TamerVirus on May 06, 2020, 09:21:53 am
Call me if reaches seasonal flu levels.Yeah so here's the call :P me being petty here. The USA's death toll (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) (72,334) has bypassed upper boundaries the death toll of the 2019-2020 seasonal flu (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) (24,000 - 62,000)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 06, 2020, 09:44:21 am
imagine not letting a bunch of foreign intelligence operatives run around your countryBut it is likely that further evidence of early coverup will be discovered and other failures. Also, it would be humiliating for them to accept outside investigation. It is kind like China trying to investigate disease spread on USA carriers.Also curious if this is why China isn't too keen on the idea.
To be fair, there's no way to conclusively prove the virus was never there, and the range of possible evidence that the virus was there (that being, primarily, the presence of the virus itself) is straightforward to destroy and therefore easy to claim could have been destroyed given its absence. It's difficult to see what such an investigation could possibly find that would change anyone's mind either way.
Refusal of outside investigation is not surprising, this happens in cases where blame is entirely on other side. Like with Russia shooting down civilian plane in Ukraine, or with discovery of USSR mass murder by Germans...
that's real rogue state behavior right there, thunder run when boys
Post by: misko27 on May 06, 2020, 02:23:11 pm
Post by: WealthyRadish on May 06, 2020, 03:21:57 pm
Post by: Iduno on May 06, 2020, 05:35:39 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 06, 2020, 05:40:33 pm
he was on the verge of proving covid doesn't even fucking real
damn it hillary
Post by: Telgin on May 06, 2020, 05:47:58 pm
Well, that's normal. (https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1257871480492359680) Lucky he didn't get pushed out a window like his peers in Russia.
Nobody does research alone on this kind of stuff so I'm sure there's a research group with all of his data. I wonder what will become of that.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on May 06, 2020, 05:50:02 pm
my god
he was on the verge of proving covid doesn't even fucking real
damn it hillary
That's like, literally half of the replies on twitter. Possibly more than half.
Quote
Democrats shot him. They want this to continue in hopes it makes Trump look bad.
Post by: nenjin on May 06, 2020, 06:53:25 pm
"Yeah and like, the paramedics weren't allowed to do CPR. And so they report his heart attack as a covid death, so they get more money." The implication being, it's not that bad and this is all some kind of hoax still by moneyed interests.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 06, 2020, 06:55:07 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 06, 2020, 07:41:14 pm
Talking to a customer today on the phone:You know, in Spain and Italy there were no blanket DNR orders as in the UK and the US were suggesting and did in at least some places.
"Yeah and like, the paramedics weren't allowed to do CPR. And so they report his heart attack as a covid death, so they get more money." The implication being, it's not that bad and this is all some kind of hoax still by moneyed interests.
Some dutch newspaper actually speculated early in the pandemic that the ICU collapse was our own fault (blamed our "culture") and we should have triaged away anyone old oe infirm by default(this was about a week before the ICUs in the Netherlands were filled to the brink and the Dutch goverment panicked).
This post is not about that newspaper article. This is about PPE, duty, and what to do in this shitfest of a situation.
What I wanted to address instead is how the New York Times wrote an article about Spanish "healthcare kamikazes"
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/europe/100000007051789/coronavirus-ppe-shortage-health-care-workers.html
And how we now have about 40.000 infected. Tbh its a wonder only 60-100 or so died (actual number is unclear...the goverment doesn't track it -heh- and medical and nursinc councils reports 41 doctors and 3 nurses respectively, but noone is really tracking auxiliaries and orderlies so its probably about twice as much).
I dont know what the right thing to do is. I don't think medical personnel should work without protection as that makes you part of the problem. Apparently a nurse with experience with ebola wrote an email that goes around US hospitals in that direction: "there are no emergencies in a pandemic." The gist of the matter was thst first you don your PPE and then you act, whatever happens. If you get infected you're part of the problem, not the solution. The problem being of course that there was no PPE.
Again I don't know what's the right answer in that regard. I think healthcare workers are prone to develop a certain martyr complex which sometimes leads to unwise actions. I do get the impression that in Spain we're worse in that regard than in the UK and Ireland. I think this is encouraged by the system because it makes it cheaper for them if you will work while unwell or will do overtime without pay.
I think it's probably a bad idea to do any of that even in normal circumstances. I think during a pandemic working while sick is a bad idea for obvious reasons, but so is "sacrificing" yourself working without equipment, or doing overtime to the extent you are exahusted. Getting yourself infected is not going to help anyone. On the other hand with global shortages of PPE there are tough decisions to make in these scenarios. But there are no good answers
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 06, 2020, 07:50:54 pm
Post by: Starver on May 06, 2020, 08:24:59 pm
[1] Not directly relevent to healthcare workers, but adds to the chance of them being exposed outside of the clinical zone, while not under the ægis of what PPE they did have.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 06, 2020, 08:45:58 pm
Post by: Starver on May 06, 2020, 10:53:14 pm
As to why Britain, across all groups, is apparently so bad, we'd really need more data (I want those multilevel trendlines I mentioned a while ago, and especially a comparison of the original "hospital only" deaths line with the more recent "hospital plus care homes" tally), noting that Belgium famously came out as most-per-capita but that's with a greater transparency than most other countries (c.f. North Korea?).
(The per capita figures that we have, being variably recorded, were actually not that bad compared to select other countries, but there probably should be an intermediate assessment between total and per capita that takes account of the dimension of connectivity. R0 across an archipelago nation compared with R0 across a single island of the same total population would be different, and then enacting/not enacting measures to modify contact will be differently effective on the subsequent Rt curves.)
Post by: scriver on May 07, 2020, 06:19:50 am
I dont know what the right thing to do is. I don't think medical personnel should work without protection as that makes you part of the problem. Apparently a nurse with experience with ebola wrote an email that goes around US hospitals in that direction: "there are no emergencies in a pandemic." The gist of the matter was thst first you don your PPE and then you act, whatever happens. If you get infected you're part of the problem, not the solution. The problem being of course that there was no PPE.
This is my intuitive feeling about this situation as well. I feel the same about healthcare's abusive circumstances in normal, non-epidemic circumstances to be honest. Doctors and nurses should not have to de-health themselves to tend to the healths of others. A worn out health worker just means less healths being tended in the long run.
But of course, healthcare workers aren't even allowed to strike any more here. Can't have people making noice about untenable situations.
"BAME" ... HCW
LOSABTAN
Sweden also had a lot of problems with immigrant populations early on, specifically east Africans (from the Horn) in Stockholm.
I see three major reasons, two which are more substantiated and one that is completely my-own-unknowledgeable-musings.
1. Beginning with the armchair theoretics: Its well known that tuberculosis is more common abroad than in Sweden. It stand to reason that TBC then is also more common among immigrants to Sweden. Combine with socioeconomic circumstances such as crowded living spaces and you're likely to have more spread than the national average among immigrant communities. TBC takes a toll on the lungs, which could mean being more suspectible to oxygen deprivation.
But enough intellectual navel guessing! On to the real points.
2. Socioeconomic stuff. It's already been broached upon so I'm not going to repeat it, but yeah, crowded living spaces and multigenerational homes means bigger spread to risk groups. Here in Sweden, lots of eastern African woman work as nurses in health and elderly care. Circumstances for eldercare nurses in Stockholm are atrocious (It's a hyper right wing stronghold after all, the worst kind of hive of scum and villainy). An offensive amount of nurses in this field are temp workers that are called in on a daily basis, who has no steady employment but have to take what work they are offered. This means no employment security, which means no healthcare benefits, which means no ability to say "no I have a tiny cold symptom today, I have to stay at home", like the authorities want you to do, because they can't afford not taking a job. Yes, the disgusting neoliberals basically turned eldercare nursing business in to a fucking day labourer system where the nurses who care for their fucking parents and grandparents have to sit around metaphorical street corners and wait for some metaphorical truck to drive by and randomly pick some of them out to work that day. Of course, the vast majority of the nurses abused this way are immigrant workers who are less likely to be in a union or know about the rights they have and vastly less likely to rock the boat regardless if they do know them. And people scoff at me when I say the open migration policies are right wing politics an inherently racist. There's absolutely nothing racist about creating an immigrant slave class to serve your educated upper class asses at all!
But I'm being side tracked by my own bitterness. Let's go to reason three.
3. Immigrants do not follow Swedish news and media like Swedes do. They have channels in their own languages or other languages closer to their motherlands'. Media here in Sweden have treated this point as if it is somehow racist, but it's how all people are. Swedes who emigrate do the same. Hell, we had this problem with foreign university students when the schools started closing or going online -- lots of European people studying here only followed their own media and didn't understand that they were allowed to go outside since Sweden hadn't closed down. So yeah, immigrant communities aren't reached by messages from our authorities to the same extent. They listen to the messages from their own media instead. There is a huge gap in effective mass communication here where there's lots of room for shit to go bad. And it went very bad this time.
The big thing is number two though. Even if a nurse (and, by the way, I am this focused on nurses because an overwhelming amount of the deaths in Sweden are from eldercare and similar homes) do get the messages the authorities are sending out they can't stay at home when the system they make a living in has been designed to treat them like things to be spent and thrown away rather than people who deserve the same treatment, benefits and security that we expect for ourselves. It's an outrageous situation. People here are getting very upset over how it could hit the elder homes so badly and there's a lot of blaming the immigrant groups rumbling in the background. I think there's some things that needs to be acknowledged (for clarity: in response to point three,, immigrant interest group spokespeople has basically gone "well it's not our group's fault they didn't get the memo, the government didn't do enough to inform them") like how it's not the authorities job to kick down doors and throw brochures at people, people have to show an interest in taking in information themselves. But this isn't a fucking bed that was made by immigrants. This is just a bed that immigrants tried to make a living in. This bed was made by the politics of the neo-liberal burgeoise and their ever ongoing quest of shitting on poor people.
Post by: martinuzz on May 07, 2020, 06:42:39 am
The poor workers in Pakistan cannot survive any longer without income.
If they don't lift the lockdown, more people will die of starvation than of corona.
Post by: Iduno on May 07, 2020, 08:33:28 am
In Pakistan, the government has decided that despite rising numbers of infected and dead, they will have to end the lockdown.
The poor workers in Pakistan cannot survive any longer without income.
If they don't lift the lockdown, more people will die of starvation than of corona.
Yeah, a lot of "end the lockdown" policies seem to be aimed at distracting people from "maybe fix the shitty way we treat people, and the complete lack of safety nets for the poor."
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 07, 2020, 08:36:20 am
You ninjaed me. I was going to say that these claims should be taken with a pinch of salt. I find it hard to believe that Pakistan cannot afford to get funding for emergency rations for all the population when they can afford high tech weaponry for their pissing matches with IndiaIn Pakistan, the government has decided that despite rising numbers of infected and dead, they will have to end the lockdown.
The poor workers in Pakistan cannot survive any longer without income.
If they don't lift the lockdown, more people will die of starvation than of corona.
Yeah, a lot of "end the lockdown" policies seem to be aimed at distracting people from "maybe fix the shitty way we treat people, and the complete lack of safety nets for the poor."
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 07, 2020, 09:05:16 am
I would at least assume that they have significant military rations on hand to distribute. Them again, the military runs the country last time I checked, so that may have something to do with not wanting to cut into funding.You ninjaed me. I was going to say that these claims should be taken with a pinch of salt. I find it hard to believe that Pakistan cannot afford to get funding for emergency rations for all the population when they can afford high tech weaponry for their pissing matches with IndiaIn Pakistan, the government has decided that despite rising numbers of infected and dead, they will have to end the lockdown.
The poor workers in Pakistan cannot survive any longer without income.
If they don't lift the lockdown, more people will die of starvation than of corona.
Yeah, a lot of "end the lockdown" policies seem to be aimed at distracting people from "maybe fix the shitty way we treat people, and the complete lack of safety nets for the poor."
Post by: Kagus on May 07, 2020, 09:53:39 am
Wouldn't that be kind of groundbreaking? Is there a precedent for viral infections where the antibodies... Stop working/being produced? Supposedly this is just the one strain of coronavirus, and that it's not mutating like all fuck to manage a second infection within such a short timeframe, so it's not like cold or flu viruses bypassing the previous protection by being just different enough.
So what gives? If the body managed to fight off the original infection, surely it learned to produce targeted antibodies? And if so, those antibodies should theoretically be able to fight it off again.
I'm aware that the facts surrounding COVID-19 re-infection aren't necessarily pointing towards compromised defense, but I'm curious if there's another example of that happening with a virus.
Post by: TD1 on May 07, 2020, 11:09:56 am
My brother is a policeman. Hard for me to admit, considering where I'm from, but I'm guessing none of you will try to kill me for it ;)
He says that the groupings which need to be disbanded are either the young, immigrants, or most often young immigrants. He also says that it's not pursued as effectively by the police as it should be, because they're afraid of being called racist.
Hardly an academic paper, and I would imagine largely fuelled by the observations of other policemen. But it struck me as interesting.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 07, 2020, 11:50:09 am
Mostly because if you're trying to persuade me that people in Ireland, regardless of borderside, politics, or religion orientation, are less effusive than Italians or Spaniards... well I've been on both sides of the border. With people of all kinds of politics and religious denominations 🤣.
Seriously now, I found people in both chunks of Ireland far more effusive than in either England or Northern Spain. About par with people in Castile and Naples at the very least.
Post by: TamerVirus on May 07, 2020, 12:04:48 pm
Wouldn't that be kind of groundbreaking? Is there a precedent for viral infections where the antibodies... Stop working/being produced?There's a mechanism called Antibody-dependant enhancement where the presence of antibodies make any subsequent infection worse.
So what gives? If the body managed to fight off the original infection, surely it learned to produce targeted antibodies? And if so, those antibodies should theoretically be able to fight it off again.
This has been seen in Dengue fever (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever) which has been known to become Dengue Hemmoragic Fever in a number of cases
This enhancement mechanism was observed in SARS 1 vaccination tests in the past
Post by: TD1 on May 07, 2020, 12:08:13 pm
Italian immigrants, in particular?There aren't a huge number of Italians in Northern Ireland. Portuguese, Polish, African.
Mostly because if you're trying to persuade me that people in Ireland, regardless of borderside, politics, or religion orientation, are less effusive than Italians or Spaniards... well I've been on both sides of the border. With people of all kinds of politics and religious denominations 🤣.
Seriously now, I found people in both chunks of Ireland far more effusive than in either England or Northern Spain. About par with people in Castile and Naples at the very least.
And no, I would not say we are particularly effusive. I honestly don't know what gave you that impression, though I'd be interested?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 07, 2020, 12:25:46 pm
(http://media.giphy.com/media/taU6RaT2Aaxt6/giphy.gif)
And no, I would not say we are particularly effusive. I honestly don't know what gave you that impression, though I'd be interested?
Post by: TD1 on May 07, 2020, 01:21:19 pm
Post by: scriver on May 07, 2020, 01:46:49 pm
"extravagantly demonstrative"
I'm still not entirely sure
Post by: nenjin on May 07, 2020, 01:51:52 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 07, 2020, 01:58:08 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 07, 2020, 02:43:04 pm
I'm curious about something... With the talk of "potential re-infection" and beating COVID-19 once possibly not granting protection against a second round...The common cold. Flu mutates so antibodies stop working.
Wouldn't that be kind of groundbreaking? Is there a precedent for viral infections where the antibodies... Stop working/being produced? Supposedly this is just the one strain of coronavirus, and that it's not mutating like all fuck to manage a second infection within such a short timeframe, so it's not like cold or flu viruses bypassing the previous protection by being just different enough.
Common cold keeps coming back not because of mutation but because the body forgets.
Supposedly this has to do with the virus not entering the bloodstream but being restricted to the outer boundaries of the body (like for example the lungs)
So it's nothing new or groundbreaking.
What would be more scary is if this virus would share a trait with HIV, in that it can go dormant in the body and you never completely get rid of it. So far there's no signs it does that luckily.
Post by: NJW2000 on May 07, 2020, 02:48:22 pm
Common cold keeps coming back not because of mutation but because the body forgets.So what you're saying is... we should inject it into ourselves?
Supposedly this has to do with the virus not entering the bloodstream but being restricted to the outer boundaries of the body (like for example the lungs)
Post by: martinuzz on May 07, 2020, 02:53:42 pm
Post by: Kagus on May 07, 2020, 03:39:13 pm
Anyways, in pleasant news, my city's just released its last COVID patient from hospital! Currently 0 active cases hospitalized.
Post by: Starver on May 07, 2020, 03:40:46 pm
I would not advise that, even though it might very well trigger a longer lasting immunity.That which does not kill us... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-52572794)
Post by: Trekkin on May 07, 2020, 04:05:05 pm
Wouldn't that be kind of groundbreaking? Is there a precedent for viral infections where the antibodies... Stop working/being produced? Supposedly this is just the one strain of coronavirus, and that it's not mutating like all fuck to manage a second infection within such a short timeframe, so it's not like cold or flu viruses bypassing the previous protection by being just different enough.
This happens all the time. It's part of why you get booster shots for vaccines.
Post by: Iduno on May 07, 2020, 04:21:46 pm
"Stay at home, or dance with us."
Post by: Bumber on May 08, 2020, 12:56:53 am
Common cold keeps coming back not because of mutation but because the body forgets.
If that were the case then we'd have cold vaccines, which we don't.
Post by: martinuzz on May 08, 2020, 01:39:09 am
Post by: Max™ on May 08, 2020, 01:48:07 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 08, 2020, 07:11:07 am
While everyone else will slowly be able to go to school, work and shops again, people with a runny nose from hayfever are shunned like typhoid Mary.
Hayfever? No school, no job, no groceries for you! Curl up and die!
Post by: nenjin on May 08, 2020, 11:04:48 am
Post by: McTraveller on May 08, 2020, 12:37:52 pm
https://twitter.com/i/status/1257821393959469056 (https://twitter.com/i/status/1257821393959469056)
"Stay at home, or dance with us."
I'm strongly considering putting a clause in my funeral instructions to hire these guys.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 09, 2020, 08:58:34 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 09, 2020, 10:28:55 am
place your bets (https://www.reddit.com/r/futurecompasses/comments/fhsfzf/coronavirus_future_compass/)I’m thinking there’ll be a combination of at least 3, probably more, of the compass squares
Post by: misko27 on May 09, 2020, 10:40:50 am
Post by: Starver on May 09, 2020, 10:46:46 am
place your bets (https://www.reddit.com/r/futurecompasses/comments/fhsfzf/coronavirus_future_compass/)I'm plumping for loo rolls dynamically varying by the cos of the tan of the time passed, in which frankly it doesn't matter what time units or epoch you use, nor radians/degrees, 'cos the cos part dominates the result to hilariously insufficient effect.
Post by: Rolan7 on May 09, 2020, 01:18:11 pm
Also what even is Death Stranding, please no one explain it to me
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 09, 2020, 01:33:25 pm
Dammit Kojima, Viral AR games are supposed to come *before* your new release. And be opt-in.if you don’t want it explained, why ask what it is? Do you actually want it explained or do you not?
Also what even is Death Stranding, please no one explain it to me
Post by: Egan_BW on May 09, 2020, 01:41:11 pm
Also what even is Death StrandingWell you see-
please no one explain it to mehow dare you. You can't do this to me.
Post by: Rolan7 on May 09, 2020, 01:43:56 pm
Fakedit: And I know that many would be happy to do so :P
Real edit: I find an odd enjoyment in observing fandoms of things without peeking for myself. Trying to understand Undertale from the outside-in, while doing my best to dodge or forget spoilers, was a treat almost on-par with the game itself. Sunless Skies as well.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on May 09, 2020, 01:52:27 pm
Post by: Kagus on May 09, 2020, 03:55:35 pm
Real edit: I find an odd enjoyment in observing fandoms of things without peeking for myself. Trying to understand Undertale from the outside-in, while doing my best to dodge or forget spoilers, was a treat almost on-par with the game itself. Sunless Skies as well.Sounds like someone needs to play Marathon. The fandom is still trying to piece everything together, almost 30 years on...
Death Stranding is just pretending you're an Amazon worker in these current times. Kojima was truly ahead of his time.
From what I've heard from my buddy, the scary evil dead things are scary and evil until you realize you can just outrun them, and the map is a vast and challenging expanse that is vast and challenging until you can build ziplines.
Post by: TD1 on May 09, 2020, 04:49:37 pm
Ahaha. Noice.
Post by: Starver on May 09, 2020, 05:30:40 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 09, 2020, 05:57:17 pm
(/feels left out, with no Facebook account and stupid "Sign Up Now!" pop-overs obscuring the comments that can be seen and the video not even wanting to play to see what exactly everyone's laugh-emojing at anyway...)there’s a no thanks button you can press to get the pop up away.
Post by: Grim Portent on May 09, 2020, 08:34:26 pm
Death Stranding is just pretending you're an Amazon worker in these current times. Kojima was truly ahead of his time.
From what I've heard from my buddy, the scary evil dead things are scary and evil until you realize you can just outrun them, and the map is a vast and challenging expanse that is vast and challenging until you can build ziplines.
They are annoying as hell to outrun though, they turn the ground to sludge that slows you down if there's no raised objects to climb onto. Easiest way to escape them is to pee on them, it makes them go away. Plus who doesn't want to pee on murderous ghosts? :P
Ziplines and roads take most of the vastness of the map away, but you can't carry much if you use ziplines since you miss out on several ways to expand cargo space. Been a while since I played, but I usually just filled up my truck and drove along the highways I helped rebuild and saved the ziplines for places that the roads didn't reach and were a pain to drive a car to.
It was a pretty nice game to chill out with more than anything. The writing is all over the place, but the scenery is pretty, the combat is surprisingly good and quite infrequent and the soundtrack is nice.
Post by: Starver on May 09, 2020, 08:40:44 pm
there’s a no thanks button you can press to get the pop up away.On the first one, yes (either a "no thanks" or an "x", it varies), but then the second level of pestering basically gives "Join" or "Log In" options with no way round, and obscures the lower half of the page which logically should give something like a "More Comments" or something below the video and thus expand the page with more than " :D :D :D :D :D "-type ones and give me some directly quoting commentaries that would have clued me in on the situation beyond the video's main subtitle...
But I'm not seeking to solve this (easist solution would be to sell my soul to Zuckerburg, of course), just thought I'd comment on my feeling under-informed. I doubt I shall lose sleep over it. (That it's 2:30am at the moment is incidental!)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 09, 2020, 08:56:09 pm
i don’t have a Facebook account anymore, but was still able to see the video. I didn’t look for comments so I didn’t know the blockage of them occured. I know from back when I had a Facebook account that most of the time, the comments will be arguments that, more likely than not, turn into insult chains.there’s a no thanks button you can press to get the pop up away.On the first one, yes (either a "no thanks" or an "x", it varies), but then the second level of pestering basically gives "Join" or "Log In" options with no way round, and obscures the lower half of the page which logically should give something like a "More Comments" or something below the video and thus expand the page with more than " :D :D :D :D :D "-type ones and give me some directly quoting commentaries that would have clued me in on the situation beyond the video's main subtitle...
But I'm not seeking to solve this (easist solution would be to sell my soul to Zuckerburg, of course), just thought I'd comment on my feeling under-informed. I doubt I shall lose sleep over it. (That it's 2:30am at the moment is incidental!)
Post by: martinuzz on May 10, 2020, 01:52:59 am
Yeah this. I refuse to join.there’s a no thanks button you can press to get the pop up away.On the first one, yes (either a "no thanks" or an "x", it varies), but then the second level of pestering basically gives "Join" or "Log In" options with no way round, and obscures the lower half of the page
Post by: wierd on May 10, 2020, 02:05:01 am
Ever since they got their hentai tentacles into every other website on the planet (http://www.adnews.com.au/news/facebook-plots-aggressive-investment-in-2015), in exchange for that sweet sweet ad-impression and unique user tracking analytics money (https://www.propublica.org/article/its-complicated-facebooks-history-of-tracking-you), they have been obstinately cockblocking basically everything unless you present your digital equivalent of your ear-tag. (you walking piece of human meat, you.)
"what, you want to view something on facebook? NO! SIGN UP! WE NEED YOUR ANALYTICS DATA! NEEEEEEEED IT!" (craven drug junkie tweaking sounds and jerky motions)
Or, has the "Oh, we over-rode your privacy settings on our update ***AGAIN*** for the 20th time now, and opted you into the expanded analytics, then FUCKING HID the option to opt-out again in a new place, again, for the 20th time! (slight hyperbole, but they HAVE done this many times, and has consistently operated with that tactic. (https://epic.org/privacy/facebook/) ) Also, you can't opt out near as much now (https://money.cnn.com/2013/10/11/technology/social/facebook-search-privacy/index.html), because we NEEEEEEEEEEED that analytics!" bullshit, somehow not made itself apparent to you?
Sorry for being so toxic, but Facebook needs to fucking die already.
Post by: martinuzz on May 10, 2020, 02:14:50 am
I can still remember how outraged I was when I was forced to make a Facebook account by my studies.
"You need this for the rest of your studies"
I used it exactly once, for that class, never looked back. Heck I can't even recall the account name anymore even if I wanted to.
Post by: wierd on May 10, 2020, 02:56:46 am
I remember the *OLD* internet culture-- the one that would have ridiculed the very notion of giving a corporation your real personal details, for *ANY* purpose. I remember when the internet was not open to commercialism.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on May 10, 2020, 03:01:26 am
Post by: King Zultan on May 10, 2020, 03:05:38 am
Post by: wierd on May 10, 2020, 03:05:47 am
Considering that they keep shadow accounts for people who have never even registered (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-facebook-privacy-tracking/facebook-fuels-broad-privacy-debate-by-tracking-non-users-idUSKBN1HM0DR), and actively use that collected data, and have been sued for it repeatedly in europe (https://techcrunch.com/2018/02/19/facebooks-tracking-of-non-users-ruled-illegal-again/), the notion that they are still holding and using it would not be a surprise to me at all.
They act literally like drug addicts. Only, it is for that sweet sweet analytics data.
@zultan
Me either. However, I am certain they know about me, because I have family that uses it, despite my very verbal position on the matter.
Post by: King Zultan on May 10, 2020, 03:09:42 am
However, I am certain they know about me, because I have family that uses it, despite my very verbal position on the matter.I'm probably in the same boat as I think I'm one of the only people in my family that doesn't have one.
Post by: Starver on May 10, 2020, 05:05:34 am
(Yes, I know here are browser extensions that expand that to the title, to at least partially rule out rickrolling-bait that aren't themselves saved with irrelevently baity titles, and that you've got Alphabet drawn even more into that argument, but at least I can read Youtube comments without (overt) login and the videos play if I (think I) want to play them when I arrive on their page.)
Spoiler: obTaleOfFacebook (click to show/hide)
But that doesn't matter. The point I was making is now made, and several others as well. :P
Post by: Bumber on May 10, 2020, 05:51:46 am
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1259293255692361730
Quote
BREAKING: German intelligence reports on January 21, Xi Jinping asked WHO chief Tedros to hold back information about a human-to-human transmission and to delay a pandemic warning - @DerSpiegel
Post by: Bralbaard on May 10, 2020, 06:41:05 am
Somebody posted this link in AmeriPol:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1259293255692361730QuoteBREAKING: German intelligence reports on January 21, Xi Jinping asked WHO chief Tedros to hold back information about a human-to-human transmission and to delay a pandemic warning - @DerSpiegel
About the source: the first thing I find when I google for Jack posiebec is this:
John Michael Posobiec III is an American alt-right political activist and conspiracy theorist who is considered an Internet troll. Posobiec is best known for his pro-Donald Trump comments on Twitter. Wikipedia
There is nothing on front page of der spiegel.
Post by: Starver on May 10, 2020, 06:58:07 am
(Talking of obfuscation, and following on from my Facebook link comments, I can't say that Bumber's link was obfuscated in any way. Good to have "the link and the substance of the link" like that. I could do it more myself, I know.)
Post by: Bumber on May 10, 2020, 07:33:27 am
Somebody posted this link in AmeriPol:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1259293255692361730QuoteBREAKING: German intelligence reports on January 21, Xi Jinping asked WHO chief Tedros to hold back information about a human-to-human transmission and to delay a pandemic warning - @DerSpiegel
About the source: the first thing I find when I google for Jack posiebec is this:
John Michael Posobiec III is an American alt-right political activist and conspiracy theorist who is considered an Internet troll. Posobiec is best known for his pro-Donald Trump comments on Twitter. Wikipedia
There is nothing on front page of der spiegel.
There's a link if you click "view thread": https://t.co/nQTaeqYYKQ?amp=1
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 10, 2020, 07:44:30 am
That article... It says that the German goverment doubts the US claims and that the supposedly leaked report might be a delliberate planted fake. That German intelligence thinks that US govt complaints are a calculated misdirection to deviate wrath away from their own mismanagement. It's cherrypicking the very last quote, which is easily debunked:Somebody posted this link in AmeriPol:
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1259293255692361730QuoteBREAKING: German intelligence reports on January 21, Xi Jinping asked WHO chief Tedros to hold back information about a human-to-human transmission and to delay a pandemic warning - @DerSpiegel
About the source: the first thing I find when I google for Jack posiebec is this:
John Michael Posobiec III is an American alt-right political activist and conspiracy theorist who is considered an Internet troll. Posobiec is best known for his pro-Donald Trump comments on Twitter. Wikipedia
There is nothing on front page of der spiegel.
There's a link if you click "view thread": https://t.co/nQTaeqYYKQ?amp=1
The WHO announced on January 20th that there was human to human transmission, amd China admitted it the following day
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-pneumonia-coronavirus-china-confirms-human-transmission-12293414
So TLDR: enough with the moans of "nobody warned us". We were warned. Its just thay oir goverments decided to assume that it would fizzle out in Asia as the previous two SARS did.
Post by: Bumber on May 10, 2020, 08:28:01 am
Post by: misko27 on May 10, 2020, 11:48:41 am
Not even going to touch on the fact that Russia has 209,000 cases but 1,915 deaths (less than Sweden!), because that's a completely different can of worms.
Post by: scriver on May 10, 2020, 11:55:01 am
2. We failed to keep the disease out of our retirement homes (and similar venues), which led to a very high death rate among our infected.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 10, 2020, 12:03:06 pm
1. Sweden doesn't test people unless they're hospitalised. We began testing people in the danger zone (staff, emergency workers, nursery home workers, etc) this or last week.Those two are unfortunately universal in most of Western Europe.
2. We failed to keep the disease out of our retirement homes (and similar venues), which led to a very high death rate among our infected.
I think the no-lockdown thing was a mistake. I think you should demand responsability from the Swedish head epidemiologist. Just like I think in Spain Fernando Simon should face responsabilities for his slow and lacklustre response early in the pandemic, and constant hesitations.
On the other hand its not like they are alone on the side of shitty pandemic management and shitty excuses for shitty pandemic management
Post by: Starver on May 10, 2020, 12:54:15 pm
Post by: misko27 on May 10, 2020, 01:00:05 pm
Post by: scriver on May 10, 2020, 01:20:33 pm
I disagree about your opinion of not going on lockdown. It's the only reasonable course of action. I believe we're going to see large increases in cases in lockdown countries again now that they're unlocking again, like what seems to be happening in Germany. I'm almost completely behind Tegnell's policy except his unwillingness to think that face masks can be pointful in the case of asymptomatic spreaders.
If there's any guilt to be had then it's with the politicians who sold out the Swedish crisis stockpile system which caused the lack of safety gear among relevant workers, and the elderly home businesses for not taking necessary precautions to prevent spread at their sites.
Yeah I was gonna say what Chairman Poo said. And in the US: 1/3 of our dead are in nursing homes. Which is just kinda how it works, sadly. There's no shortage of series of unfortunate events across the world, so the fact that Sweden's numbers so off remains unusual to me. The lack of testing tells me more, though.
These are slightly old numbers (from 28th of April) as the article (https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/halften-av-alla-doda-over-70-ar-med-coronasmitta-bodde-pa-sarskilda-boenden) is a bit old, but in Sweden 90% of all deadly cases are 70+ years of age. Of these 50% were in elderly homes, and 26% had home-service (daily elderly care in their own homes). So in Sweden it's roughly 76% of 90% of the deceased.
I'm not a math person. I can't convert that to a percentage of 100% ;)
Post by: Starver on May 10, 2020, 02:15:39 pm
Somebody really went to town with the cut-away graphics (especially the animation on the "hovering between Level 3 and Level 4" diagram).
Apparently "COVID Alert Level = R(Rate of infection) + Number of infections". Which is one hell of a formula.
I love the totally arbitrary use of the R=1 label on this one that is supposed to look like a graph but makes no sense as one (even if you imagine it is axially labelled).
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 10, 2020, 02:23:33 pm
Post by: Starver on May 10, 2020, 03:24:24 pm
Just enough divisions to make sense (safe,safe-ish,iffy,squeakybumtime,kissyourarsegoodbye), not so many as to confuse matters.
(edit: Ah, sorry, Phases, not alert levels... Ignore... But similar "handful of stages" thing, maybe...)
Post by: Max™ on May 10, 2020, 05:56:25 pm
All that compass reminds me of is that I really need to find my Tendskin so I can start shaving regularly again.I look forward to beards going out of style among young hipster dudes, you can pry mine from my cold dead jawbones, I'm growing silver streaks in goddammit! Like Garfield had, dude was epicbearded!
We're still at too high a ratio so far on positive/tested with 1.3/9.3, still seeing spikes in states with protests, and over 80k known deaths now.
Post by: hector13 on May 10, 2020, 07:18:40 pm
Post by: Frumple on May 10, 2020, 07:59:40 pm
On the bright side for them, their testing rates have become goddamn incredible. Something near a full fourth of the county's population has now been tested, apparently (~2k tested, ~8k pop).
... on the less bright side, even with that the positivity rate is still like 10 goddamn percent. County's infected as hell.
Post by: scriver on May 10, 2020, 11:47:27 pm
Post by: wierd on May 10, 2020, 11:49:05 pm
Ministry of Love, and all that.
Post by: Quarque on May 11, 2020, 12:31:56 am
I think the no-lockdown thing was a mistake. I think you should demand responsability from the Swedish head epidemiologist. Just like I think in Spain Fernando Simon should face responsabilities for his slow and lacklustre response early in the pandemic, and constant hesitations.Well even though many experts seem to have underestimated the virus back in january, I am still thanking them. I'm all too happy that I am not in charge now. There is no good solution and any decision (lockdown or not) has grave downsides.
PS That's not to excuse the real long term mistakes that were made to cut back on health services and research in the name of profit, most blatantly by Trump. Or Trumps ways of making a bad situation worse in general.
Post by: wierd on May 11, 2020, 01:15:05 am
https://nypost.com/2020/05/10/cuomo-was-wrong-to-order-nursing-homes-to-accept-coronavirus-patients/
Apparently Cuomo partially admits it was wrong to force nursing homes to admit covid patients. However, I disagree with the tactic he has taken as the alternative.
Rather than demand that patients test negative (and thus hold up hospital beds), I would suggest this more sensible policy:
If a nursing home has active covid, they can, at their discretion, accept back (or accept new) residents that have active covid. If the home is still successfully quarantining their resident population against the disease, they should not be approached with covid patients.
While many elderly persons can be seriously compromised by covid (understatement of the century there), not all residents admitted to skilled nursing facilities are elderly. Many people in their 30s to 40s admit on temporary respite stays. If a person is recovering, and does not need intensive care, but still needs skilled nursing, it makes sense to make use of already compromised care settings to facilitate that outcome, and free hospital beds for acute cases.
The key there, is "already compromised facilities." Not "Forcibly compromise successful quarantines because of hospital bed shortages."
Post by: Bralbaard on May 11, 2020, 01:41:57 am
I look forward to beards going out of style among young hipster dudes, you can pry mine from my cold dead jawbones, I'm growing silver streaks in goddammit! Like Garfield had, dude was epicbearded!
If you are already this defensive about your beard, think how a hipster (or a dwarf) would react.
I foresee a bright future for the beard, in fact, the beard will become the mask.
Hipsters will develop and share diagrams for knitting and braiding your beard into the perfect face mask, instantly solving the problem of the lack of protective gear for the male half of the population. The age of the beard is upon us!
Post by: wierd on May 11, 2020, 01:47:46 am
I still have mine, and I wear a mask daily. You just have to keep it shorter, and better shaped.
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2020, 04:25:59 am
Post by: Starver on May 11, 2020, 04:57:44 am
(Yet to hear what Norn Irn leaders are saying.)
Spoiler: Meanwhile, STAYALERT (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on May 11, 2020, 06:12:38 am
I look forward to beards going out of style among young hipster dudes, you can pry mine from my cold dead jawbones, I'm growing silver streaks in goddammit! Like Garfield had, dude was epicbearded!
If you are already this defensive about your beard, think how a hipster (or a dwarf) would react.
In fact, that is how a hipster would react
A properly trimmed beard is not an obstacle to a face mask.
I still have mine, and I wear a mask daily. You just have to keep it shorter, and better shaped.
A moustache is not a beard
Post by: wierd on May 11, 2020, 06:39:58 am
Post by: scriver on May 11, 2020, 06:41:26 am
Post by: Kagus on May 11, 2020, 07:07:11 am
A well trimmed goatee is in fact, a beard.Yeah, well, a wife is also a beard.
Post by: wierd on May 11, 2020, 07:10:46 am
It covers everything from A "Tony Stark" baby beard, to a "Thomas Henry Carter" mustache-less overgrowth.
Still a beard. What it is *NOT*, is a "Full Beard".
Post by: scriver on May 11, 2020, 07:46:20 am
Post by: coalboat on May 11, 2020, 08:12:21 am
Post by: Max™ on May 11, 2020, 08:42:46 am
If it's not a large omnivorous animal, can one really call it a beard, though?Thank you, if you've never discovered an uncontacted tribe deep in the recesses of your beard, or never gone to take a bite of something only to discover it missing with loud crunching sounds going on below your chin, if you've never had an entire 6 foot long 2x4 fall freshly planed and scraped from your beard... I have to wonder what exactly you think a beard is to begin with?
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2020, 08:46:27 am
Post by: Max™ on May 11, 2020, 09:00:54 am
Post by: Bumber on May 11, 2020, 09:01:33 am
I think if one rubs a plastic ruler on his very thick beard the beard can be charged with static electricity which can stop miniscule air-borne particles.
Drawing them closer towards your face in the process.
Post by: Iduno on May 11, 2020, 09:22:15 am
But seriously though, fold that shit up into the mask, extra layer of filtration I say!
I know my beard doesn't significantly allow air movement, because I can't wear sunglasses to drive while I'm wearing a mask. Instant fog-up.
Post by: Max™ on May 11, 2020, 09:29:19 am
We need to apply the opposite charge then... QUICKLY, TO THE SCIENCARIUM!I think if one rubs a plastic ruler on his very thick beard the beard can be charged with static electricity which can stop miniscule air-borne particles.
Drawing them closer towards your face in the process.
Post by: hector13 on May 11, 2020, 01:40:45 pm
But seriously though, fold that shit up into the mask, extra layer of filtration I say!
I know my beard doesn't significantly allow air movement, because I can't wear sunglasses to drive while I'm wearing a mask. Instant fog-up.
Yeah.
Now try having to wear glasses to see god-damn anything and you’ll see my life.
Or not, because of all the fogging up.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 11, 2020, 01:42:42 pm
But seriously though, fold that shit up into the mask, extra layer of filtration I say!
I know my beard doesn't significantly allow air movement, because I can't wear sunglasses to drive while I'm wearing a mask. Instant fog-up.
Yeah.
Now try having to wear glasses to see god-damn anything and you’ll see my life.
Or not, because of all the fogging up.
The foggy dew
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 11, 2020, 02:10:45 pm
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/personal-pa-karolinska-uppmanas-jobba-aven-om-vi-ar-smittade
Post by: Dunamisdeos on May 11, 2020, 02:43:10 pm
The National Guard showed up at my nurse-wife's place of work last week. Her Exec Director was doing some shady unsafe stuff regarding Covid, she and the rest of the staff reported it, and the health dept. arrived to correct it. The National Guard accompanied them. This is America, so they showed up with like 18 military vehicles.
Stuff like forcing people who have Covid to work with higly-at-risk people, reusing sanitary supplies, and oh hey not disclosing covid cases or deaths that resulted thereof as required by law. Turns out that's super illegal. Glad it got taken care of in the end, though. Everyone got tested properly (they disallowed the exec director's doctor of choice from doing it, and ours personally came back negative) and things are much safer there now.
Post by: Iduno on May 11, 2020, 03:22:54 pm
This is America, so they showed up with like 18 military vehicles.
Knowing the guard, they probably started with 100 when they started the trip.
Post by: scriver on May 11, 2020, 03:46:33 pm
Scriver can you confirm this? Allegedly in Sweden covid19+ healthcare workers without symptoms are being sent to work
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/personal-pa-karolinska-uppmanas-jobba-aven-om-vi-ar-smittade
Yes, it seems true. Basically the hospital told employees to "if you test positive, go home" but then the documents also said "if you don't have symptoms, go to work" which employees interpreted as saying they should come to work even if positive without symptoms and contacted media.
Later the hospital confirmed this interpretation. They seem to be using some strange rationale that basically boils down to "you have to be symptom free to take the test. The test takes 2-3 days to resultate. If you're still symptom free when the test arrives, then you can be assumed to have been symptom free for at least two days, in which case you can return to work".
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 11, 2020, 03:51:12 pm
it's been established since late March that most contagions actually come from asymptomatic carriers
Post by: misko27 on May 11, 2020, 04:11:44 pm
Someone inform me why beards apparently need to go?In part because of an association of beards with limiting the effectiveness of masks and complications it presents towards cleaning, but mostly because I really fucking hate the sensation of having a beard.
:|And asymptomatic carriers are a large percentage of those who get infected. Which doesn't even include people who've caught it but haven't yet gotten sick, what I've read has said that they can still test negative before symptoms appear. (Actually I looked it and up and yes, source here (https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus).). Which is how the Whitehouse had this situation with Pence's Press Secretary: she tested negative on Thursday, and positive Friday morning.
it's been established since late March that most contagions actually come from asymptomatic carriers
Post by: scriver on May 11, 2020, 04:17:23 pm
:|
it's been established since late March that most contagions actually come from asymptomatic carriers
A Korean study also showed that the majority of people who thought of themselves as asymptomatic, when questioned about symptoms themselves, turned out to not be asymptomatic after all.
Remember that here in Sweden the recommendation is that if you have even the tiniest sign of symptom you stay home and don't go out into society.
Post by: McTraveller on May 11, 2020, 04:30:31 pm
what I've read has said that they can still test negative before symptoms appear.As opposed to testing negative after symptoms appear? That sounds... like tests need to improve a lot, if you can have symptoms and still test negative.
Where are our bioscanners, dammit?
Post by: Frumple on May 11, 2020, 04:38:37 pm
E: Oh, though it's super easy to have many, if maybe not all, crow plague symptoms and still test negative for covid, by dint of not having covid. Most of the symptoms are just kinda'... common.
Post by: misko27 on May 11, 2020, 04:39:37 pm
A: You are infectious before you start showing symptoms, and studies found no difference in the contagiousness between these "presymptomatic" individuals and feeling sick.
B: Studies across the world of people who are sick report anywhere between 10-40% asymptomatic rate. Bear in mind the estimates for the asymptomatic rate of the Seasonal Flu is anywhere between 5% and 25%, so that's not an extreme outlier.
C: Some "mass testing" policies implemented in various places have found large numbers of people infected without symptoms. For instance, a number of US states have started doing tests of the entire prison population: often these have found exceptionally large outbreaks (the largest single outbreaks in the country, 1000+). Marion County, Ohio's jail briefly gave Marion County the distinction of being the most infected county in the entire country per capita (a title it has since lost to Trousedale Tennessee, in another prison-related outbreak). Of the 2,028 who tested positive, close to 95% showed no symptoms; of all tested prisoners, the rate is even higher. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX) Whether those are true asymptomatic cases or merely presymptomatic, the outcome could hardly be more obvious: In a jail of 2500, 2,028 were infected.
Bear in mind also that with how the virus test works, it tends towards false negatives. I'll quote the Harvard link (http://) I posted a minute or two ago:what I've read has said that they can still test negative before symptoms appear.As opposed to testing negative after symptoms appear? That sounds... like tests need to improve a lot, if you can have symptoms and still test negative.
Where are our bioscanners, dammit?
Quote
Both the saliva and swab tests work by detecting genetic material from the coronavirus. Both tests are very specific, meaning that a positive test almost always means that the person is infected with the virus. However, both tests can be negative, even if a person is proven later to be infected (known as a false negative). This is especially true for people who carry the virus but have no symptoms.
Some early reports suggest that the saliva test may have fewer false negatives than the swab test. If verified, home testing could potentially quickly ramp up the widespread testing we desperately need.
...
If a test result comes back positive, it is almost certain that the person is infected.
A negative test result is less definite. An infected person could get a so-called "false negative" test result if the swab missed the virus, for example, or because of an inadequacy of the test itself. We also don't yet know at what point during the course of illness a test becomes positive.
Post by: Telgin on May 11, 2020, 06:25:28 pm
Post by: Jimmy on May 13, 2020, 03:25:53 am
We're loosening the social distancing restrictions, which is great news in my book. Soon you can once again go visit your local pub, cafe, church, or brothel.
I'm particularly pleased to hear we can have up to five visitors from various households at a residence together, meaning my weekly D&D game can resume!
We're working out a plan with kiwi land to allow the exchange of various sorts between us, since we're practically their west island anyway.
China's got the shits with us about finger pointing, so they're jacking us on trade tariffs. Sucks to be a farmer right now. Time to find someone else ready to take some damned good quality resources off our hands, I reckon. Anyone here need 30 million tonnes of beef and 6 million tonnes of barley? Going cheap!
Post by: Kagus on May 13, 2020, 03:49:40 am
Anyone here need 30 million tonnes of beef and 6 million tonnes of barley? Going cheap!Ask the D&D thread, they're trying to work out the logistics of feeding elephants.
Post by: martinuzz on May 13, 2020, 04:23:59 am
DO NOT GET IN BETWEEN AN ELEPHANT'S TRUNK AND IT'S FOOD
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2020, 04:46:49 am
Some friends of mine went your way, earlier this year, on a supposed two-month-or-so trip. Transitted through Singapore just as things stopped being "Just Wuhan/Just China", and I meant to ask if they'd had much freedomto roam in their stopover days. The XXXXian immigration checks were happy enough that they'd not arrived via/come from China, though, it was so 'early' in the situation.
But then they found their multistate tour curtailed as travel was discouraged. Hobart definitely fell off the list quite quickly (I think after their state of entry and at least their next planned port of call were visited (NT/NSW? - can't remember what they told me about their route)), as they were left sitting in one hotel for a while longer than intended, and there was confusion as to whether they'd get to their planned departure state (WA?) for standard return (idling time away), get there quickly (after only two weeks hotel-isolation) for early rearrangement or have to go for a completely different departure based on where they'd stalled. I think it ended up being the middle one, but not before booking a contingency flight around the third option (I assume costs to be picked up by insurance or carriers' insurance/rebate). I must find out.
They got back after just the month, before the UK properly locked down even, and were asked to self-isolate for a fortnight (by which time the rest of us also were). Strangely, the fuss is now over plans to ask/force incoming travelers to specifically self-isolate once they arrive home/their local point of residence. So that sounds like it's being de-rescinded (after being considered implicit in the middle period so not a policy in and of itself).
So, anyway, general praise from them for your country's handling of things, despite how it spoilt their plans. And despite it, at the time, still being an emerging story so neither as effective as a lockdown could have been (with what we know now) nor as undisruptive as it might have been hoped for (for what the public initially imagined, back then).
I'm sure they're planning to return to do it properly, once things are somewhat more resolved. One thing they didn't do, in this truncated trip, was meet up with someone who had planned to fly in from NZ to share part of the trip. A friend they'd made during their journey to Kiwiland a few years before, one in which their return was much delayed by a medical emergency and extended hospital stay! They don't seem to have much luck with visiting your particular hemisphere/quadrant/octant. On the other hand, they survived potentially bad situations both times they did, which might not have gone so well in various other alternate destinations they could have chosen (in both cases, the US could have been a nightmare, never mind other issues you could run into over there), so there must actually be something quite redeeming about them!
Anyway, by way of my partial knowledge of their firsthand experiences, all credit to all you lot who walk upside-down, or mostly so. Never gone anywhere so far as you, myself (East Coast US/western Eastern Europe and Scandiwegia/Mediterranean bound my lifelong travels), but I've known a few people down your way over the years, and in leiu of current contact with them (mostly through my inaction) I thought I'd say something about it all in your direction. Without resorting to saying Fair Dinkum, Cobber even once. ... <|< ... *damn*.
(Ps, it aint your beef and barley that's going cheap, surely. That'd be your budgerigars!)
Post by: misko27 on May 13, 2020, 10:34:21 am
Putin has announced the end of the "non-working period", and an easing of the lockdown (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52620015) on Monday. On Tuesday a fire broke out at a major hospital in St. Petersburg, forcing evacuation of the sixth floor of an intensive care unit and 150 patients, five coronavirus infected patients attached to ventilators were killed. (https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/europe/russia-fire-coronavirus-patients-intl/index.html) Russian investigators say their initial findings link the fire to a short-circuited ventilator, and comes on the heels of a similar fire in Moscow on Saturday which killed one.
Post by: scriver on May 13, 2020, 11:01:42 am
Post by: Akura on May 13, 2020, 01:10:25 pm
Post by: nenjin on May 13, 2020, 01:24:06 pm
And I have a funeral to go today :|
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2020, 02:04:48 pm
Going to make damn sure I've have protective gear while working, though.
Spoiler: Stay safe! (click to show/hide)
Post by: Akura on May 13, 2020, 02:29:22 pm
Spoiler: Stay safe! (click to show/hide)
Why is it my first thought when seeing that is "that looks uncomfortable on the crotch"?
Post by: Dostoevsky on May 13, 2020, 03:59:27 pm
Someone inform me why beards apparently need to go?
With apologies for bringing back the beards topic, I always love to share this graphic:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2020, 06:16:27 pm
Post by: scriver on May 14, 2020, 12:04:31 am
Post by: Max™ on May 14, 2020, 02:24:38 am
Naturally I would incorporate a neck cuff and whatnot so I could snug my bandholz length mane down into it.
Chin mane only, head is buzzed because fuck all that shit, I hate caring for hair that just wants to tickle my ears and neck making me think a mosquito or something got inside the house, my beard is cooperative now and only occasionally tries to partake in my soup or cereal if I'm not careful or forgot the regular chipmunk feeding required to keep it full and lush.
So we dipped under 1000 deaths a day... for a day, and we're heading back towards 2k again--fully 1/3rd of known cases globally are right here, but we're still getting positive results from around 1/7th of the OVER TEN MILLION tests we've done, and we recently rolled over 85k known deaths here, which is a bit under 1/3rd of all known deaths worldwide--with everyone talking about reopening and lifting restrictions like it's over when it wouldn't even be feasible to reopen without a catastrophe IF we had handled it properly months ago.
If you're in a country with leaders actively trying to reopen fully before South Fucking Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Japan, or New Zealand... be careful and remember that at best they don't care if you die, at worst they're looking forward to certain segments of their population getting thinned out.
Anybody remember the brief period a couple months ago when it seemed like Trump was actually starting to give a fuck and take shit seriously?
Not long after that he learned that a disproportionate number of the sick and dying were... well... several shades darker than his own horrific orange coloration--which in hindsight was clearly an aposematic warning indicating extreme toxicity--and he suddenly stopped pretending to consider if he could convincingly act like he might have any fucks to give with his nubby little orange bits.
Post by: martinuzz on May 14, 2020, 04:13:17 am
Thanks to the heroic efforts of your judge you are now free again to choose whether to loose your job over staying at home, or go to work and die from corona, instead of being inhumanely forced to stay safe and healthy!
Post by: ZBridges on May 14, 2020, 04:18:40 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 14, 2020, 04:49:48 am
How are they going to get test subjects willing to have themselves injected with corona to see if it works?
Are they going to use a pool of people who already applied for euthanasia and reimburse them with a discount on their lethal injection if they survive?
I can't see a medical ethical committee agreeing on injecting healthy persons with a potentially lethal virus.
EDIT: this whole vaccin focus seems like a long shot anyways. Don't forget we have been trying to develop a vaccin against HIV for about 50 years now and still don't have one. Okay fair enough, Covid-19 does not specifically target white blood cells like HIV does, but still.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 14, 2020, 04:56:05 am
Post by: Starver on May 14, 2020, 06:05:15 am
Keep track of all relevent events, and test for whole-virus signs (beyond the time/degree of having vaccine fragments, which you gave them) to assess whether one group dodged that bullet/were hurt less by it. (Hopefully that being innoculated one!)
Alternately, see if an antibody test pops up positive without having had a (non-vaccine) antigen test do so. But antibody testing is also quite a task (though I suppose the really thorough but low volume kinds are Ok, rather than the ones we're trying to develop for blanket mass testing). But you'd want to follow them afterwards anyway, if only to fulfil the safety monitoring of the vaccine itself, and to check its (intended) effects actually last.
Post by: McTraveller on May 14, 2020, 11:36:05 am
or go to work and die from corona,
Hyperbole like this will lead to the downfall of modern civilization. If you have people thinking they are going to die if they go to work, people will stop making and/or shipping food, making sure your water and power plants are working, etc.
Yes this is a pretty severe public health issue. But it's not a death sentence to go to work. It just really isn't.
Post by: Rolan7 on May 14, 2020, 12:27:26 pm
"go to work and have a far increased risk of catching corona, probably spreading it to everyone you live with and possibly strangers, statistically leading to multiple deaths".or go to work and die from corona,
Hyperbole like this will lead to the downfall of modern civilization. If you have people thinking they are going to die if they go to work, people will stop making and/or shipping food, making sure your water and power plants are working, etc.
Yes this is a pretty severe public health issue. But it's not a death sentence to go to work. It just really isn't.
Sure it's not a personal death sentence to go to work (though it is an increased risk). It's more than that.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 14, 2020, 12:47:13 pm
"go to work and have a far increased risk of catching corona, probably spreading it to everyone you live with and possibly strangers, statistically leading to multiple deaths".You've just described a 'pretty severe public health issue'.
Post by: Dostoevsky on May 14, 2020, 12:47:27 pm
Will be interesting to look at numbers of people on permanent disability pre- and post- crisis, though the number has been going up pretty quick in the U.S. already for the past ~decade (for various reasons).
And yes, per Rolan7's point - what gets me the most about this whole situation is that people should be thinking about this less of a 'I'm probably not going to die if I do this' situation and more 'I could easily indirectly kill or permanently harm several people if I end up an asymptomatic carrier'.
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 14, 2020, 12:47:50 pm
Yes, people tend to like not having to expose themselves to those."go to work and have a far increased risk of catching corona, probably spreading it to everyone you live with and possibly strangers, statistically leading to multiple deaths".You've just described a 'pretty severe public health issue'.
Post by: martinuzz on May 14, 2020, 01:16:42 pm
It cannot have been the intermediate carrier between what are assumed to be bats and humans.
Another scapegoat will have to be found.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 14, 2020, 01:16:58 pm
Sooo...
or go to work and die from corona,
Hyperbole like this will lead to the downfall of modern civilization. If you have people thinking they are going to die if they go to work, people will stop making and/or shipping food, making sure your water and power plants are working, etc.
Yes this is a pretty severe public health issue. But it's not a death sentence to go to work. It just really isn't.
It's not exactly hyperbole if out of every 100 people one will die and ten or so will end up in hospital, maybe end up with long term sequelae. And no, you are absolutely right, we cannot go on as normal. We won't, in fact. In that sense society as we know it is over. The sooner we can figure out how to do things some other way the better. And the more time we earn before further waves, the more likely we'll have effective interventions for covid19
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 14, 2020, 01:22:41 pm
Scientific research into pangolin corona virusses have cleared the pangolin of all charges.Good, Pangolins go through enough as it is.
It cannot have been the intermediate carrier between what are assumed to be bats and humans.
Another scapegoat will have to be found.
Post by: McTraveller on May 14, 2020, 01:42:11 pm
Worth noting that corona is more than the death rate. Permanent lung, heart, other damage isn't uncommon for those who get bad symptoms (admittedly don't recall the statistics offhand). Still 'only' something like a 10% rate of significant consequences, but that can become a significant chunk of people within certain worksites (e.g. meat packing plants).
Will be interesting to look at numbers of people on permanent disability pre- and post- crisis, though the number has been going up pretty quick in the U.S. already for the past ~decade (for various reasons).
And yes, per Rolan7's point - what gets me the most about this whole situation is that people should be thinking about this less of a 'I'm probably not going to die if I do this' situation and more 'I could easily indirectly kill or permanently harm several people if I end up an asymptomatic carrier'.
Minor: how can we say this is "permanent" damage, when it's only been analyzed for less than a year? Maybe it's just "slow recovering" damage? (Consider the stuff from some years ago that showed that lung damage from smoking even can be repaired over time).
Also - almost any illness is an illness you can get from work/school/mass transit, bring it home, and spread around to your family and loved ones. Including things that can have complications for at-risk populations.
But we are basically creating a generation that is going to be afraid to socialize at all, when it was already suffering from too much "online-only" socializing. This is a significant "hidden" cost to the whole thing and I think people are overlooking it.
And even that 1.2% IFR is... misleading. It's too aggregate and leads to the fear I'm talking about.
There is a difference between being responsible and being paralyzed by fear. I mean how many people do you indirectly kill by using the output of modern industry?
I just don't want to live in a world of surveillance and fear. I'm sad that I've had to live in a world where people are asking for it.
Post by: Dostoevsky on May 14, 2020, 02:07:24 pm
Minor: how can we say this is "permanent" damage, when it's only been analyzed for less than a year? Maybe it's just "slow recovering" damage? (Consider the stuff from some years ago that showed that lung damage from smoking even can be repaired over time).
My understanding is that it causes lung scarring, which is permanent damage. A transplant is possible in very bad cases, though having an organ transplant comes with its own set of permanent consequences/problems.
Also - almost any illness is an illness you can get from work/school/mass transit, bring it home, and spread around to your family and loved ones. Including things that can have complications for at-risk populations.
Yep, definitely true, though the data we have so far suggests that this virus is very good at transmitting across populations while at the same time having a higher-than-normal rate of major problems. Though, as you say, the data we have on death rate and the like is not settled, what data we do have merits real concern.
I wouldn't call this apocalyptic or anything, just that it could be a lot worse than anything we've seen since days when the world population (and density) were much smaller - e.g. during the 1918 flu the world population was less than 2 billion compared to the 7+ billion we have today.
Edit: We obviously have much better medical technology than we did then, of course. But that assumes e.g. we have medical capacity, which in some situations has become a major limitation on treatment.
But we are basically creating a generation that is going to be afraid to socialize at all, when it was already suffering from too much "online-only" socializing. This is a significant "hidden" cost to the whole thing and I think people are overlooking it.
Based on my (obviously limited) information, I can't say I'm getting that impression. Lots of grumbling following of recommendations, less so terror.
And even that 1.2% IFR is... misleading. It's too aggregate and leads to the fear I'm talking about.
There is a difference between being responsible and being paralyzed by fear. I mean how many people do you indirectly kill by using the output of modern industry?
It's odd how selective people can be in conceptualizing the indirect costs/consequences of actions, as you say. I work for an environmental group, so 'numbers of people killed by output of modern industry' is something I work on, and for me personally it's a pretty tough question. Coal plant is cheap power (which is disproportionately good for those with less wealth), coal plant also kills people (and disproportionately kills those with less wealth/power). It's something people need to grapple with, at the very least, and not just shrug their shoulders about.
There have been times historically when babies with birth problems (or even just babies over #X per family) were just left outside to die, and that was seen as normal. (I'm not advocating for that, of course.) In many ways society is no longer like that... except for the times it still is. And there isn't an easy line to say one can't cross.
I just don't want to live in a world of surveillance and fear. I'm sad that I've had to live in a world where people are asking for it.
Yeah, this is the 6 million dollar question & issue.
Assuming that China's death/infection numbers aren't too far off one can say that their totalitarian approach is effective, but even so I don't think I'd rather live in China.
Going back to my baby example above, reportedly during the one child policy that sort of practice was effectively enforced for those without political connections.
Other countries seem to have had similar success, though via similar levels of 'tracing' and other invasive practices. How much is good enough, and how much risk does either side entail? I admit I'm glad I don't have to make that decision, but I am happy to do what I can to not risk spreading the virus around.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 14, 2020, 06:43:45 pm
And even that 1.2% IFR is... misleading. It's too aggregate and leads to the fear I'm talking about.I'm going to start ignoring you because otherwise I might end up flaring beyond my intention. Do you want to see the aggregate 1.2%? Here it is
(https://e00-marca.uecdn.es/assets/multimedia/imagenes/2020/04/08/15863285510474.jpg)
(https://static3.abc.es/media/espana/2020/04/02/1423821763-kqNB--1024x512@abc.jpg)
How's that for aggregate?
And you still talk about freedom, and the dangers of isolation, we have nothing to fear but fear itself.... bullshit. We have a lot to fear. There's a lethal pandemic out there. Its not just the IFR which is nasty enough. For each one of those dead? There are around ten people who wont die but will be miserable for weeks in hospital. Do you really think being "free" to have a haircut is worth that? Not to mention the workers you expect to risk their lives for your recklessness. Including healthcare workers.
Civilization as you knew it is already over. The question here is how to salvage the remnants. Denials about the deadliness of this pandemic won't spare your way of life, they'll just mean you'll have to explore change later, and with a higher bodycount. Again, your way of life is over. Social distance is here to stay. The sooner everyone wears a mask the better. Denial only endangers yourself and others
Post by: McTraveller on May 14, 2020, 07:42:58 pm
I'm just saying that nobody should be afraid to go to work.
Have an understanding about the risk? Yes. But not cowering in fear.
Post by: mko on May 14, 2020, 08:27:53 pm
The tricky problem is that sufficiently long and restrictive lockdown will also result in $BIGNUM number of deaths.
As bonus, it would be nice to avoid "Civilization as you knew it is already over. The question here is how to salvage the remnants." becoming actually true.
On topic of Russia:
although their death rate remains peculiarly low.Their official reported death rate. I am curious about general excess mortality, this would be harder to fake.
I'm just saying that nobody should be afraid to go to work.Being afraid is normal in that situation.
Post by: Greiger on May 14, 2020, 11:39:02 pm
I was planning on attempting to go back to work at the end of the month. But with all this stuff about reopening makes me worry about doing that, there's still a half dozen or so new cases every day in my county, that's if you believe that everything is being done to test people, which I sure as hell don't. I'm absolutely sure that number is at least double that, probably closer to 10 times that. and I don't want to get my mother sick, nor do I myself want to get it.
1 man I have known personally since I was a kid has died from coronavirus. An ex coworker of mine that I keep up with through Steam was hospitalized and has felt weaker and more tired ever since (and he's about my age). I don't have a huge pool of friends. But 2 people I know well enough to have had some kind of communication with at least once a week have had this virus. I don't like my chances having io interact with hundreds of people a day.
Damn right I'm terrified, and if you are not afraid to go back to interact with even a few people, every day that you have no idea what precautions they are taking, if any, you might have a problem.
EDIT: In case it was not known I worked at Dollar General. And I was in a low management position, enough to see daily sales numbers and data like that. The store averaged 190 people per day, closer to 300 during the first bits of corona panic when everyone was buying TP and hand sanitizer. I know because its one of the numbers I had to log at the end of the day, every day. My county according to the most official data I can get Here (https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429) says 4% of those tested have it. There were 2 shifts per day at my store, which puts me at interacting with half that 190. Which points me at interacting with 3 people per day rounding down that have coronavirus. Yea I'm terrified of returning to work.
Oh and when I say people per day that's actually transactions per day, and I'm assuming 1 person per transaction. If multiple people are doing one transaction they can probably be counted as one person, as they are likely all in the same household. It also helps balance out the occasional person who does two transactions because they forgot to buy something too.
Post by: Reelya on May 15, 2020, 12:26:25 am
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6824207/
https://psmag.com/news/why-are-conservatives-grossed-out-by-germs
One possible interpretation of this is that conservative populists are fully aware of this germs/outsiders thing (which is suspected to be evolutionary behavior: being wary of outsider groups during a plague is a good survival instinct) and they're hoping the plague spreads because they can cash-in on the anti-foreigner thing. Somehow it doesn't trigger cognitive dissonance for them that they want to close international borders to stop the spread of the pathogen, but if it's state borders they'll protest to keep them open, as if the "local" version of the virus is less bad or something.
Post by: martinuzz on May 15, 2020, 06:56:46 am
I am not feeling like translating a lenghty article today, I hope google translate can handle the dutch for you.
The basic gist: Covid-19 does not just effect the lungs.
Or rather, people suffocating is not caused directly by the virus, but rather by the virus damaging blood veins, causing blood clots, and flooding the lungs with your own blood plasma.
What doctors thought to be ARDS caused by our immune system going in overdrive is actually blood plasma leaking into the still reasonably healthy lungs and flooding them, long before the immune system goes haywire.
The virus' entry gate to the body, the Ace2 receptor, is shown to be deregulated after the virus uses it to enter the cell, disrupting chemical balance that normally prevents blood vessels from leaking.
This also causes organ failures, neurological symptoms, aneurisms and more.
Also, there's some reports now that Covid-19 has been found in sperm. It might be sexually transmittable too.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/de-slooptocht-van-het-coronavirus-in-het-lichaam-bijna-geen-orgaan-blijft-onberoerd~b1914afa/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/de-slooptocht-van-het-coronavirus-in-het-lichaam-bijna-geen-orgaan-blijft-onberoerd~b1914afa/)
Post by: Starver on May 15, 2020, 08:43:15 am
Post by: TamerVirus on May 15, 2020, 09:17:51 am
About a hundred or so kids in New York have developed something similar to Kawasaki disease (blood vessel inflammation) after testing positive for Covid19/had the antibodies.
This disease has all sorts of curveballs.
Post by: Starver on May 15, 2020, 09:53:59 am
It's been theorised that children of hospital keyworkers mixing with children of nursing-home keyworkers has been one vector (as well as 'farming out' asymptomatic patients in the first rush to clear wards of potential bed-blockers) that got the virus into the carehomes so much as it did, once the schools closed to all but keyworker-kids/otherwise vulnerable ones.
I am not overly concerned about children, over and above my concerns about post-adolescents, but I'm certainly frustrated by those that continue to dismiss the risks to them (and by them) as negligable. Whether this specific threat is new (and not just a replacement for some other tragedy they'd succumb to if it weren't COVID that was doing the rounds, while being buried in the normal rates of other diseases) is a concern, but if we're even getting a rate of non-fatal/no-symptom transmission in these agegroups we're obviously failing to live up to the precautionary measures we aspire to.
(I've heard calls for 'normality' to resume, but super-isolate the elderly and other specifically vulnerable more, on the basis we can't and couldn't stop it being endemic anyway, and they aren't as economically 'important'. This sounds more like an end result (ending lockdown) in search of a solution than a well-considered approach looking at all repercussions.)
Post by: misko27 on May 15, 2020, 10:53:25 am
It doesn't seem to be particularly common, at present, but it does belie the argument that "oh yeah children are totally fine send them into the breach, they're immune!" Well until they aren't and go into Shock.
Post by: Max™ on May 15, 2020, 11:08:31 am
Most of the work we do is busywork because we have this fucked up idea that there is no purpose to a life which doesn't produce a profit for someone else, and those collecting said profits then dole out a pittance to the workers who made it so they can pass them on to the next big funnel so someone else can collect it.
People ARE needed for certain tasks otherwise civilization may damn well crumble, and everyone has various needs to be met and niceties they probably want to enjoy, but the only reason to force this framework of "you have to scrape and earn every fucking cent you're spending on that ramen, peon" on so many people is so they can be the losers while a few others get to be the winners.
Why the fuck would anyone in their right mind wish to go back to an unfulling and tedious grind so they can devote huge portions of their life to making a few assholes a tiny bit richer?
I mean, somebody might suggest loyalty or team spirit or vague promises of improved standing at some workplace at some unspecified time in the future is reason enough to listen when bitchy fucks notice their stock ticker isn't going up so fast or at all and they want you to go back to making the stock machine go brrrrrrrrr.
The important thing there isn't your health, your happiness, the risks to you or those around you, and this isn't some new development. The game was rigged against you long ago, it's just really hard to act like it's fun to keep playing when you realize you're only being told to play again because they're trying to boost their high score, and god damn you for breathing if it isn't helping do just that.
Post by: Teneb on May 15, 2020, 12:14:47 pm
Who exactly is hurt by people not heading off to perform some sort of function as a cog in a long geartrain that scoops up cash from a big pile and funnels it into a few pockets?But muh STONKS!
Most of the work we do is busywork because we have this fucked up idea that there is no purpose to a life which doesn't produce a profit for someone else, and those collecting said profits then dole out a pittance to the workers who made it so they can pass them on to the next big funnel so someone else can collect it.
People ARE needed for certain tasks otherwise civilization may damn well crumble, and everyone has various needs to be met and niceties they probably want to enjoy, but the only reason to force this framework of "you have to scrape and earn every fucking cent you're spending on that ramen, peon" on so many people is so they can be the losers while a few others get to be the winners.
Why the fuck would anyone in their right mind wish to go back to an unfulling and tedious grind so they can devote huge portions of their life to making a few assholes a tiny bit richer?
I mean, somebody might suggest loyalty or team spirit or vague promises of improved standing at some workplace at some unspecified time in the future is reason enough to listen when bitchy fucks notice their stock ticker isn't going up so fast or at all and they want you to go back to making the stock machine go brrrrrrrrr.
The important thing there isn't your health, your happiness, the risks to you or those around you, and this isn't some new development. The game was rigged against you long ago, it's just really hard to act like it's fun to keep playing when you realize you're only being told to play again because they're trying to boost their high score, and god damn you for breathing if it isn't helping do just that.
Post by: martinuzz on May 15, 2020, 12:52:41 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stocks
Post by: McTraveller on May 15, 2020, 01:06:46 pm
Why the fuck would anyone in their right mind wish to go back to an unfulling and tedious grind so they can devote huge portions of their life to making a few assholes a tiny bit richer?
This is such a generational difference in world view. How about seeing the unfulfilling and tedious grind as a way to enable yourself to do something less tedious and more fulfilling, despite the fact your employer may profit? That's the worldview I was brought up with... yeah maybe you make your employer some profit, but you give yourself enough profit to quit that job and do what you want, or if the job is what you like, then enjoy it!
And I find the argument that "it just costs too much, you can never save enough to get out" to be hollow. There are always ways to pool expenses - live at home, get roommates. These options are part of the "unfulfilling and tedious" I know. You don't have to sacrifice that many meals to afford a $40 bus ticket after all. I bet you can probably find a religious organization in any area that is willing to give you a bus ticket out of dodge.
Ultimately the only reason oppressive regimes remain is because people end up being more comfortable with the status quo and complaining about it than ultimately risking their own well being (yes, even up to the point of death) to change it.
If you are wanting a "leader" or "law enforcement" or someone else to change society without you participating at all - then you are asking those people to, in some way, risk their own well being to bring about the change. This feels inconsistent to me.
Put another way: it's fine to risk your own well-being for some cause. But any time you are asking (or even forcing) someone else to risk their well-being for your cause instead of you... that just doesn't sit well with me.
Post by: Bumber on May 15, 2020, 05:50:47 pm
(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/straw-mask-85.jpg?quality=80&strip=all)
Post by: Starver on May 15, 2020, 05:59:15 pm
Post by: Bumber on May 15, 2020, 06:53:19 pm
Remind me not to look up stills from The Fly. ;)
How about Mansquito instead?
Post by: Iduno on May 15, 2020, 07:36:32 pm
Post by: Greiger on May 15, 2020, 08:13:13 pm
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1260949102617075712 (https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1260949102617075712)Well that's practical, and helps keep the medical workers safe should a covid patient indeed die in the bed.
But at the same time the patient's mental health is important too, so I imagine if something like that does get put into use it's going to have to be well hidden from the patient. I can't imagine how someone's mind could wander when bored in a hospital room with nothing but a tiny TV perpetually tuned to the 24/7 all Jesus all the time channel knowing you are potentially sleeping on your coffin.
Its a great thing if people can keep quiet about them and keep them well disguised, but I can see a PR disaster coming should certain parts of the media get evidence about a hospital having the coffinbeds.
EDIT: I overimagined, I fixed it.
Post by: Bumber on May 15, 2020, 08:23:37 pm
Post by: Starver on May 15, 2020, 08:35:36 pm
(Is it just a coincidence that account belongs to "Amy Wilson". Is she Jim (http://www.jimwilson.com/jw00100.html)'s sister?)
Post by: Frumple on May 15, 2020, 08:35:49 pm
Mind, those don't look like they're exactly intended to be super reusable. Plus if you're dealing with a bed and coffin shortage bad enough to want dual purpose cardboard icu beds, the downsides are probably less relevant :V
I can't imagine how someone's mind could wander when bored in a hospital room with nothing but a tiny TV perpetually tuned to the 24/7 all Jesus all the time channel knowing you are potentially sleeping on your coffin.By the time you're actually at a crisis point, you're probably intubated (and significantly sedated, because that sucks giant donkey balls and you flailing around could cause problems), iirc. You're going to be entirely too fucked up at that point to worry about it, and probably too fucked up to watch TV. Intubation et al saves lives, but without that it'd just be a good torture method :-\
Post by: Max™ on May 15, 2020, 09:59:30 pm
Close enough to just call it 1.5 million cases and 90k deaths now, still holding steady around 33% of global caseload and 28% of global deaths.
We're number 1, we're number 1!
Oh, Naxza, at the current rate we'll be over 100k deaths next week assuming it holds around the 1.5k/day number it did this week.
I'm gonna be 40 this 9/11 you know, I'm what they call a tail-Xer, my mom was one of the first Gen X kids, there aren't many of us, and our politics got skipped over by boomers hogging everything. When you grow up watching Reagan suck corporate balls on national tv, learn what "deregulation" implies by the time you're 11, and were actually young enough to be happy about getting a minimum wage job just when it was getting raised to $5.15 an hour--where it remained for the next ten years--you don't suddenly become a big fan of bootstrap arguments when they're presented unironically.Why the fuck would anyone in their right mind wish to go back to an unfulling and tedious grind so they can devote huge portions of their life to making a few assholes a tiny bit richer?
This is such a generational difference in world view.
How about seeing the unfulfilling and tedious grind as a way to enable yourself to do something less tedious and more fulfilling, despite the fact your employer may profit? That's the worldview I was brought up with... yeah maybe you make your employer some profit, but you give yourself enough profit to quit that job and do what you want, or if the job is what you like, then enjoy it!Oh hey, look, an unironic bootstrap argument!
Incidentally, when your labor is sold below market rate* and you accumulate savings here and there by sacrificing whatever you can do without, that isn't called profit and getting ahead, it's called earnings and trying to catch up.
*As in, a hypothetical ideal market that doesn't exist would value it at a certain amount, while the real market is manipulated and controlled to disproportionally reward those who helped/encouraged/paid for said manipulation and control.
And I find the argument that "it just costs too much, you can never save enough to get out" to be hollow. There are always ways to pool expenses - live at home, get roommates. These options are part of the "unfulfilling and tedious" I know. You don't have to sacrifice that many meals to afford a $40 bus ticket after all. I bet you can probably find a religious organization in any area that is willing to give you a bus ticket out of dodge.What if the only well-being I'm asking others to risk is the financial well-being of those who by definition are already well-off but continue insisting that they're being terribly hurt by everyone else trying not to die?
Ultimately the only reason oppressive regimes remain is because people end up being more comfortable with the status quo and complaining about it than ultimately risking their own well being (yes, even up to the point of death) to change it.
If you are wanting a "leader" or "law enforcement" or someone else to change society without you participating at all - then you are asking those people to, in some way, risk their own well being to bring about the change. This feels inconsistent to me.
Put another way: it's fine to risk your own well-being for some cause. But any time you are asking (or even forcing) someone else to risk their well-being for your cause instead of you... that just doesn't sit well with me.
I don't seriously expect this to kill off the bullshit prosperity gospel infected version of capitalism we suffer under here in the US, but I'm damn sure not going to clutch my pearls when it gets kicked repeatedly in the balls because it fucking deserves it and we'll all be better off the weaker it gets.
Post by: wierd on May 15, 2020, 11:02:34 pm
My brain is producing parody lyrics for various 80's songs...
--------Corona virus themed parody lyrics.
Devo "Whip it" becomes---
Sleezo, "Kick it!"
Quote
Got off'a that ship!
Give the feds the slip!
Not up to the task;
Didn't wear a mask!
When the virus comes along,
You must kick it--
Before we finish up this song,
You will kick it!
When the ER wait is long--
You will kick it!
Now kick it
Into shape
Shape it up
Get straight
Go forward
Move ahead
Try to detect it
It's not too late
To kick it
Kick it good!
When a "good time" goes around
You will kick it
After it spreads all over town
Unless you kick it
No one gets away
Until they kick it
I say kick it
kick it good
I say kick it
kick it good
Got off'a that ship!
Give the feds the slip!
Not up to the task;
Didn't wear a mask!
When the virus comes along,
You must kick it--
Before we finish up this song,
You will kick it!
When the ER wait is long--
You will kick it!
Now kick it
Into shape
Shape it up
Get straight
Go forward
Move ahead
Try to detect it
It's not too late
To kick it
Kick it good!
for instance.
Why brain, why must you do this?
Post by: Max™ on May 15, 2020, 11:51:53 pm
What the fuck, check my email and see a message from my littlest sister talking about how she's going to visit her sister (the one that is not part of my family) and her route comes this way and wanted to stop by.
I'm like, ok, this may be harsh but she's a psychopath who doesn't care about you, or she would have said GO THE FUCK HOME, THIS IS NOT THE TIME FOR CASUAL STATE TO STATE VISITS LIKE I AM!
Post by: McTraveller on May 16, 2020, 06:48:02 am
I'm gonna be 40 this 9/11 you know...I guess a few years, and perhaps geography, makes a difference; I'm only 28 months older than you.
I don't ascribe to prosperity gospel by the way: I ascribe to "work to better yourself and others, not complain about what others have." I also grew up knowing that work doesn't always lead to prosperity - "we live in a fallen world" and "the rain (that brings crops and therefore wealth) falls on the righteous and wicked alike".
I'm not talking about bootstrapping, I'm talking about what is important is what do you do with what you have, not how you compare to others.
I'm talking about understanding all sides of the virus response - the importance of both social distancing and basic hygiene and consideration of others as well as the importance of keeping people working. Not for the sake of corporate profits, but for sake of the individual workers. I'm willing to accept "corporate profits" as a price for helping people stay sane by getting them back to work. Would I prefer other measures, like an official mortgage/rent holiday? Yes. But we don't have that; we have what are largely an inconsistent, incoherent set of measures.
I'm also aware that culture has shifted from "death is a part of life, yes let's not throw lives away but let's not spaz out about it" to a culture of "we must save all lives, no matter the cost!" The false dichotomy of "lives versus the economy" has got to stop - at some point the economy is lives, so (as others have said) this is "lives versus lives".
Do we really have the hubris to say which lives are more worthy than others, or that dealing with an acute illness (even with long-lasting effects) is more important than the long lingering effects of a broken economic system in general? I don't. I may not agree with the lifestyles of the "rich" but they are still people, so I can't condone "kicking them in the balls." I also can't support ostracizing people who want to live their lives, go outside and play, heaven forbid go visit friends or family. Safety is not a single-axis quantity that consists of "no exposure to virus du jour".
Individually any of the sentiments or actions that are surfacing because of the pandemic are not that concerning, but taken as a whole, the culture of ideas out there is deeply troubling. And yes it's not all because of the pandemic, much of it was there before - the stuff about government control and "community impact" versus individual agency. Stuff about sidestepping freedom of speech protections by hiding behind "they are a private company so they can censor hate speech if they want." Basically all the stuff about which interests have the greatest impact on various aspects of daily life.
Post by: Frumple on May 16, 2020, 07:25:13 am
I may not agree with the lifestyles of the "rich" but they are still people, so I can't condone "kicking them in the balls."Do note that 'kicking them in the balls' largely consists of, god fucking forbid, measures to make them maybe have a lifestyle only two or three times more wealthy or secure than the average person, rather than even more than that, to sometimes farcical degrees and the great detriment of many other people.
Personally, I can condone that real bloody hard, extra especially in the face of a goddamn plague. The sympathy I have towards the "plight" of the better off maybe ending up living like the friggin' rest of us or putting off their goddamn beach trips and fancy haircuts for a few months or a year or two or whatever isn't just infinitesimal, it's outright negative. Invocations to care about their fucking luxuries while the rest of us toil and die makes me want those luxuries pulled to the ground and burnt.
Post by: McTraveller on May 16, 2020, 08:38:58 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on May 16, 2020, 09:02:38 am
Because the Other isn't people. And even if they were then they deserve to be burnt regardless.
Post by: Starver on May 16, 2020, 11:37:49 am
BTW. Current ambitions in the UK (England, mostly) is to rush school reopenings, barely in time for them to clise again for the Summer Holidays arrive just for the sake of it.
I wrote a long piece about this last night, but it fell into a bit-bucket. Basically, I think it's just a thibg to do to have been seen to have done something, with misplaced emphasis on the schooks taking on a social role that I don't think is their responsibility. But if we want to argue the point on that, it'll have to be in another later post.
Same for how I think Boris is being reckless in other aspects because of the next looming Brexit escarpment (if not actual cliff-edge).
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 16, 2020, 11:48:48 am
I'm gonna be 40 this 9/11 you know
Listen sugar, it's literally been 30 years since I started studying and learning about relativity and black holes and spacetime and all sorts of other stuff
Been following the subject for literally 30 years now, I've paid attention and studied and watched an entire base climate period worth of the discussion and research and so forthLol.
Post by: Iduno on May 16, 2020, 11:56:36 am
Back up to 5 days in a row with 1k+ deaths, it's probably safe now guys, let's go back to work!
To be fair, most of those deaths are poor people, who are disproportionately black or hispanic. Killing them off is already fairly obviously a goal of the federal government and most states.
I don't ascribe to prosperity gospel by the way: I ascribe to "work to better yourself and others, not complain about what others have." I also grew up knowing that work doesn't always lead to prosperity - "we live in a fallen world" and "the rain (that brings crops and therefore wealth) falls on the righteous and wicked alike".
I'm hearing "shut up and do what's good for your betters" from those quotes.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 16, 2020, 01:12:49 pm
Post by: McTraveller on May 16, 2020, 01:44:59 pm
Don't take a generalization like a characteristic associated with a generation personally.
EDIT: I think (Hope?) most of here talk in general philosophical stances - not aimed at any one person. Maybe I need to try harder to make that clear? I know I have a problem with tone...
Post by: Iduno on May 16, 2020, 09:20:25 pm
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1261529343274233856 (https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1261529343274233856)
Post by: Max™ on May 17, 2020, 12:19:30 am
Spoiler: As for IP, if you were curious, you could have just asked. (click to show/hide)
Post by: McTraveller on May 17, 2020, 08:56:56 am
...asking for a better tomorrow instead of leveling for the same broken tomorrow and lies of a more successful future. But just go back to work, put your back into it, that'll stop the impending depression.
Maybe that's the 'risking one's own neck' thing you were referring to before, but risking coronavirus to pay the rent or risking eviction to keep people safer, clearly each has a risk and a cost.
Yes, that's close to what I was getting at - don't merely ask someone else to fix it (and complain when it's not fixed in the desired way) - be a part of the work to fix it. I guess maybe I got too long winded and lost that point. And yes, there are risks/costs associated with that.
Post by: McTraveller on May 17, 2020, 12:07:04 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 17, 2020, 12:18:44 pm
Post by: ggamer on May 17, 2020, 07:51:03 pm
I live in Georgia (famous for it's spineless governor Kemp), and shit is going to get reeeeally sketchy around here with the state "opening up." I'm trying to move closer to Atlanta at the moment - I live in bumfuck Egypt - so I can have an easier time finding work without getting too far from my current job. I can't really stay where I'm at, both because I'm awfully fucking tired of my parents, and because my mom is high risk and I don't want to end up infecting her bc I'm working in a restaraunt.
Anyway, how's everybody holding up?
Post by: Telgin on May 17, 2020, 09:49:13 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 18, 2020, 04:43:20 am
However...
Only non-medical grade facemasks are allowed.
If you are caught wearing a medical grade facemask, you will be fined.
Medical grade facemasks are exclusively reserved for healthcare staff.
Post by: Jimmy on May 18, 2020, 04:48:02 am
Post by: Starver on May 18, 2020, 06:45:11 am
Only non-medical grade facemasks are allowed.I've been trying to get that POV onto a few phone-ins/letters pages, myself.
If you are caught wearing a medical grade facemask, you will be fined.
Medical grade facemasks are exclusively reserved for healthcare staff.
As well as the discarded latex gloves blowing around the supermarket carparks/elsewhere, when you see something that might be an N95, discarded just as casually after probably half an hour's use (and self-protection, probabl, rather 5han hedging bets to protect others) it makes me wonder.
I've been experimenting with (not actually compulsary, locally, but vaguely advised in some circumstances) face-coverings myself[1], but most seem to fog my glasses up. Which doesn't mean they aren't effective (for the duration), but makes my choice lean towards being situationally aware rather than (as others do) wearing a bit of random cloth then barging through everyone else's extended personal space with nothing but oblivion in mind.
[1] For the type you use a T-shirt for, plus extra close-woven material, I've got an old SOPHOS Antivirus one from a turn-of-the-millenium computer security trade show, and I can make the breast-logo a prominent feature when folded just right... ;)
Post by: Frumple on May 18, 2020, 07:20:08 am
But yeah, I'm now doing the mask thing when I go into stores, and will be at work when we open our doors back up. Most of it isn't even the protection, it's the look, for lack of a better word. One of the important things to be doing if you're in any sort of official capacity (i.e. working at a gov't ran job) -- or just in general if you want to be doing at least some minor contribution to making things less bad -- is to be walking the walk when it comes to behavior. If you or the organization you're working for are telling people -- look, wear masks folks -- then you need to be wearing a mask if you're ever visible to the general public. If it's distancing, you need to be seen distancing. If it's not doing non-essential shit, you need to not be showing up at the hairdresser or gym.
If it's just a good fucking idea to be doing those things and it's not any sort of specific policy for something you're working with -- do those things. Even if it's not specifically vital for you in particular, because it helps send and spread the message, yes, this shit is important, we should be doing it.
And that fucking matters. Because if enough yous aren't doing it, people start going, "oh, it's not that bad" and things get worse. Top level presentation matters the most on that front (one of the myriad reasons the stateside administration can go fuck itself right now, as a general thing), for sure, but every little bit helps normalize better response and that especially makes a difference if your political administration et al has largely fucking abandoned proper response :-\
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 18, 2020, 07:20:56 am
Post by: scriver on May 18, 2020, 08:56:30 am
I'll give everypeople in risk groups a pass.
Post by: McTraveller on May 18, 2020, 09:55:47 am
I've actually caught myself specifically pausing to consider not telling my kids to wash their hands after playing outside, because I want to keep their systems at least somewhat exposed to things that exercise their immune systems.
Or is this nonsense and there is no evidence for "you can get immunodeficiency if you aren't exposed to enough pathogens"?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 18, 2020, 09:59:02 am
Blaming those few citizens who do have HEPA masks is a huge red herring. And the most important thing is encouraging people to use any mask
Post by: Starver on May 18, 2020, 10:07:35 am
Just seen, for the UK: "Everyone over age of five in the UK with symptoms can now be tested for coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced."
A) That's...good?
B) That'll be impossible to do. Another of Hancock's Half-Brained targets?
Breaking news, and I forgot to tune into the Daily Briefing this is probably being announced in, so I'll have to keep an eye on the follow-up reports.
Post by: Iduno on May 18, 2020, 10:10:11 am
(Maybe, @McT, but I've been thinking about all the other stored-up issues that'll spike after this.)
Just seen, for the UK: "Everyone over age of five in the UK with symptoms can now be tested for coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced."
A) That's...good?
B) That'll be impossible to do. Another of Hancock's Half-Brained targets?
Breaking news, and I forgot to tune into the Daily Briefing this is probably being announced in, so I'll have to keep an eye on the follow-up reports.
But I thought the government in the UK always listened to the experts before making decisions? /s
Post by: hector13 on May 18, 2020, 01:22:23 pm
(Maybe, @McT, but I've been thinking about all the other stored-up issues that'll spike after this.)
Just seen, for the UK: "Everyone over age of five in the UK with symptoms can now be tested for coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced."
A) That's...good?
B) That'll be impossible to do. Another of Hancock's Half-Brained targets?
Breaking news, and I forgot to tune into the Daily Briefing this is probably being announced in, so I'll have to keep an eye on the follow-up reports.
But I thought the government in the UK always listened to the experts before making decisions? /s
They’re at least back to not telling the experts to fuck off. I guess that’s the same thing.
Post by: Starver on May 18, 2020, 05:45:45 pm
The dimensionless factor R is of course the basic reproduction number by which any given number of infectors create another given number of infectees in a situation. (R0 is specifically the likely number given one typical infector amongst a naïve population, both in immunity and behaviour. Rt is how this has changed by time t when the pool of susceptibility has been reduced by precautions, vaccinations, those already succumbed already, in a model, but when estimating - for example trying to colourise a height-map of hotspots or giving observed risks for a table of groups - you can refer to Re, the effective number for the situation. And I think someone has told the politicians this, as they've stopped talking about "Reducing R-nought", which can't be done after the fact.)
So, anyway, this is something they might start teaching more in schools, if they do reopen them before summer, as a topical application of mathematics to keep them busy in the short time before they break up for the holidays. At the same time, all those pupils meeting up in whatever scholarly situation is provided will inevitably be subject to some viral transmission, varying by school, etc.
And I suppose you could then call the accumulation of values that would attempt to describe what is seen happening a Students'-R Distribution.
Post by: thompson on May 18, 2020, 05:46:17 pm
(Maybe, @McT, but I've been thinking about all the other stored-up issues that'll spike after this.)
Just seen, for the UK: "Everyone over age of five in the UK with symptoms can now be tested for coronavirus, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has announced."
A) That's...good?
B) That'll be impossible to do. Another of Hancock's Half-Brained targets?
Breaking news, and I forgot to tune into the Daily Briefing this is probably being announced in, so I'll have to keep an eye on the follow-up reports. I initially interpreted the “values” of the distribution to be the values the students calculated, which wasn’t particularly amusing. Upon rereading I realised you were in fact referring to infection rates post lockdown, which actually works rather well (but spoiled by my earlier misreading). Maybe it’s just me though.
C) He meant “Anyone”.
Do I get a prize?
Edit: I think there’s something in that joke, but the delivery needs a bit of work. I initially interpreted the values of the distribution to be the values the students calculated in their excercises, which didn’t really mesh with the part on new infections. I later realised you may have been referring to the Rt values of these new infections, but by that point the tension had been spoiled. It may just be me though.
Post by: Frumple on May 18, 2020, 05:59:48 pm
It's a shitty prize, yes.
Post by: Starver on May 18, 2020, 06:01:49 pm
[C) He meant “Anyone”.Well, that's my assumption. As in "we need to artificially raise 'accomplished'[1] tests, to get our arbitrary yet still insufficient target actually accomplished, but we can't seem to get enough of the current list of targetted people in the position of taking a test... let's just make it a free-for-all and service as many of the lower-hanging fruits as we can, even if people with greater need now get passed over due to awkwardness".
Do I get a prize?
([1] I imagine postal kits will feature heavily, fresh off the production-line but long before they actually become used. If indeed they do. With an assumed ramping up of availability, it's effectively a Ponzi scheme if you know you need to not double-report on return but add new 'new' tests every day to cover the pre-counted with brand new pre-counted false-accounting and then need some more to demonstrate you're not standing still.)
edit: They also just added "loss of taste or smell" to the list if symptoms, after inexplicably being absent compared to other jurisdictions. At the same time as saying "hey, like, if you have any of the symptoms, you're qualified to ask to be tested..." Sounds almost like they are shifting all the goalposts in a coordinated manner for some reason.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 18, 2020, 06:15:17 pm
Post by: scriver on May 19, 2020, 12:30:50 am
But jokes aside I hope it's just the normal flu Chairman. Or a weak case of the Ravenflu. Where are you know? If I understood your plans correctly you hadn't gotten back to Ireland yet, or did you? Can you self-quarantine where you are?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 19, 2020, 12:34:00 am
I'm good for the time being. Plus I've barely left the house in the last 2 months. Shopping is mostly done by my mother who goes out with protection. We're fairly good so far
Plan is to fly eventually depending on availability of flights and accomodation of some sort, interview results and management decisions yes.
Post by: wierd on May 19, 2020, 12:37:00 am
So far so good in my resident population here. No active cases; quarantine still effective. (knocks on wood.)
Post by: scriver on May 19, 2020, 12:39:32 am
I didn't notice the edit
On the plus side this means I don't have to have any guilt over joking about your typo, which is also good
Post by: Frumple on May 19, 2020, 06:06:00 am
I believe it was in response to the "Just recently added symptom!" (which has been known for well over a month now, in professional circles...)Just outta' curiosity, but isn't a loss of taste and/or smell, like... common... for respiratory issues? Could swear it's something that occasionally happens with just normal colds or allergies or whatev'. which would just make the "just recently added" thing even more of a farce, covid's symptoms are mostly just flu/cold/anything-respiratory ones, of course taste/smell loss would be a potential symptom!
Post by: wierd on May 19, 2020, 06:09:48 am
Basically, under *NORMAL* conditions, when your body has low SpO2, you have shortness of breath, rapid breathing, and a feeling of suffocation.
NOT SO with Covid19.
Post by: Starver on May 19, 2020, 08:17:41 am
Which makes the change to include it (with no obvious pathological changes to the situation) smell fishy to me, assuming I can still smell[1]. I'm fairly sure that I could take my accumulated 'feelings' and decide that I need a test, but I'd be fooling myself[2] and (much as I'd like to know if I have it[3]) I would be reducing the chance of another worrier, probably more genuine, to have their own concerns definitively addressed. It's not worth crying wolf on a macro level, though obviously a more self-interested look at the given Nash Equilibreum might point otherwise.
It's why I'm most interested in the "have you had it" test, which (when positive) gives 'post facto' good news that should continue to remain good, compared to the "do you have it" on in which the only 'good' result is a negative, but with no reason to believe it'll last. On the basis that history is immutable but the future is relatively unknowable, I'd happily plump for the chance to narrow down my status with the former, if freely offered, with fewer qualms about it than risk getting addicted to regular 'top up' tests to reconfirm I'm pre-Corona (or post-Corona, but having missed the actual effects of the episode).
Talking of taste, BTW, I saw earlier that "In France, 150,000 tonnes of high quality cheese went off last week, because farmers can’t sell it." - I don't know whether to believe that. If it aint threatening to walk off the plate, those kinds of cheese not quite ready to eat! (And though I'm not someone who has actually tried anything like Casu Marzu, the existence of such a product indicates that there is a market for virtually everything...)
[1] Which I can, at least up to my normally low levels. I'd never get a job as a perfume designer (or semellier), though maybe I could better stand to work on the production line a perfume factory.
[2] I'm not a hypochondriac. If anything, I might be the opposite. Hyperchondriac? There seems to be no handy antonym for "that bad feeling within that funny bit of the body".
[3] Before you worry, what I feel now (elements of mild hay-fever probably) similarly applied to me more than a month ago, so at least one of those datum points (and for almost all the time between then and now) cannot be It, and thus I have no reason to assume the other is either.
Post by: scriver on May 19, 2020, 08:48:15 am
[2] I'm not a hypochondriac. If anything, I might be the opposite. Hyperchondriac? There seems to be no handy antonym for "that bad feeling within that funny bit of the body".
It's called a boner
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 19, 2020, 08:51:39 am
No it's called genital herpes[2] I'm not a hypochondriac. If anything, I might be the opposite. Hyperchondriac? There seems to be no handy antonym for "that bad feeling within that funny bit of the body".
It's called a boner
Post by: King Zultan on May 19, 2020, 09:21:40 am
I thought the "bad feeling within that funny bit of the body" meant he was talking about having crabs.No it's called genital herpes[2] I'm not a hypochondriac. If anything, I might be the opposite. Hyperchondriac? There seems to be no handy antonym for "that bad feeling within that funny bit of the body".
It's called a boner
Post by: Starver on May 19, 2020, 09:30:31 am
Post by: scriver on May 19, 2020, 09:39:44 am
Post by: King Zultan on May 19, 2020, 09:55:17 am
Post by: hector13 on May 19, 2020, 02:44:31 pm
I heard those things taste like crab and talk like people.
You’re just giving it that *mimics crab pincers*
Post by: Bralbaard on May 19, 2020, 05:03:22 pm
This is the first case of animal to human transmission over here. I'm actually not sure if any such cases have been described elsewhere. As I said earlier, I won't shed a tear if this is the end of mink-farming in the Netherlands.
With animal diseases they are usually very quick to clear out entire farms if anything is found, I'm actually surprised that so far the goverment maintains that no action is needed on these mink farms. At least they have said they are going to monitor other farms now.
Post by: martinuzz on May 19, 2020, 05:25:50 pm
Let's hope not. If only because the death toll from cat owners going HULK SMASH on cat killers will be much higher than the death toll from the rare occasion that it spreads from cat to human.
But yeah, an end to mink farming would be great. Terrible animal cruelty to get a few rich whores a fur coat.
Post by: Bralbaard on May 20, 2020, 01:10:24 am
Also a farm with 10000 covid coughing mink is something else than a cat.
Post by: Caz on May 20, 2020, 04:05:22 am
My greatest concern is if some studies shows that in rare occasions the disease can transmit from cats (or dogs, or other beloved pets) to humans, every paranoid neighbor in your street might start killing your cats. Or worse, the government orders all cats killed. (it has already been shown that cats can get Covid, they don't seem to get sick from it or transmit it to humans though)
wasn't there already transmission from humans to tigers (in zoo) of covid-19?
Post by: Bralbaard on May 20, 2020, 04:06:44 am
My greatest concern is if some studies shows that in rare occasions the disease can transmit from cats (or dogs, or other beloved pets) to humans, every paranoid neighbor in your street might start killing your cats. Or worse, the government orders all cats killed. (it has already been shown that cats can get Covid, they don't seem to get sick from it or transmit it to humans though)
wasn't there already transmission from humans to tigers (in zoo) of covid-19?
From humans to animals has been confirmed in quite a few cases yes, but the other way around, from animals to humans is another thing.
Post by: Reelya on May 20, 2020, 04:18:29 am
People in general are not that awful. There might be a few cat-killings that would be blown out of proportion by the media, but nothing systematic.
To be perfectly honest, some feral cat culling is overdue. They wreak havoc on other wildlife.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 20, 2020, 08:14:44 am
Well it CAME from animals to humans in the first place. I'd be surprised if it didnt go both ways.My greatest concern is if some studies shows that in rare occasions the disease can transmit from cats (or dogs, or other beloved pets) to humans, every paranoid neighbor in your street might start killing your cats. Or worse, the government orders all cats killed. (it has already been shown that cats can get Covid, they don't seem to get sick from it or transmit it to humans though)
wasn't there already transmission from humans to tigers (in zoo) of covid-19?
From humans to animals has been confirmed in quite a few cases yes, but the other way around, from animals to humans is another thing.
At any event if you want to keep your cat safe make sure he or she stays indoors. This is true pretty much always (outdoor cats tend to meet violent demises), it might actually be LESS true these days due to reduced traffic. But it'd suck if your cat befriended someone else (which AFAIK cats are prone to do) and got covid and died. Would suck double if on top of that they gave covid to you.
Post by: Magistrum on May 20, 2020, 09:31:22 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 20, 2020, 09:41:16 am
https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/universiteiten-gaan-katten-met-corona-en-hun-besmettelijkheid-in-kaart-brengen~b09f0e15/
Post by: Cyroth on May 20, 2020, 11:58:32 am
Heh, because of the transmission from mink to humans, dutch universities announced today that they are going to research if cats play a role in spreading Covid.
On the plus side, years of Dwarf Fortress have already taught us what we have to do in this situation.
Post by: scriver on May 20, 2020, 12:42:14 pm
Post by: Kagus on May 20, 2020, 12:45:25 pm
Not with a bang, but with a catsplosion?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 20, 2020, 02:19:06 pm
Heh, because of the transmission from mink to humans, dutch universities announced today that they are going to research if cats play a role in spreading Covid.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/universiteiten-gaan-katten-met-corona-en-hun-besmettelijkheid-in-kaart-brengen~b09f0e15/
*shrug* research is never bad... but we can anticipate the result: while probably theoretically possible, there will be zero cases.
The vast majority (all known) cases are spread from person to person. If someone is going about petting strange cats in the street, they're not staying at home as they're supposed to. if they are petting their covid-infested friend's cats, they're not keeping social distancing as they're supposed to.
Post by: martinuzz on May 20, 2020, 02:26:16 pm
I might need to order a pre-emptive drone strike on them.
Post by: martinuzz on May 20, 2020, 02:34:16 pm
Last week a city council meeting in the Netherlands had to be shut down because someone had taken over the council software, and while the city councellors were trying to debate about the costs of a new infrastructure project, penisses and child porn were streamed on their screens while someone kept shouting " nigger nigger" in the background.
Turns out they forgot to tick the setting in Zoom that disallows anyone from speaking without permission, while holding the meeting on a public channel (the latter isn't dumb, it's required by law, city council / parliament / senate meetings have to be public)
So uhm yeah.. Holding meetings online to prevent corona spread, that I can understand. Even though it is unconstitutional (there's already a lawsuit running to force government officials to convene physically again).
But please, hire at least one person who knows how the computer software for that works.
Post by: TamerVirus on May 20, 2020, 02:49:20 pm
If someone is going about petting strange cats in the street, they're not staying at home as they're supposed to.What if that strange (yet really cuddly) cat comes directly to my backyard? :o
Post by: Starver on May 20, 2020, 04:17:32 pm
Turns out they forgot to tick the setting in Zoom that disallows anyone from speaking without permission, while holding the meeting on a public channel (the latter isn't dumb, it's required by law, city council / parliament / senate meetings have to be public)New headcanon: The virus was released to increase the market for videoconferencing. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/zm)
That's one investment I bet many would have wanted to make (well before now). Or, having missed that bubble, sell pizzas (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52724062).
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 20, 2020, 08:46:30 pm
Then you've been adopted by a cat.If someone is going about petting strange cats in the street, they're not staying at home as they're supposed to.What if that strange (yet really cuddly) cat comes directly to my backyard? :o
Post by: nenjin on May 20, 2020, 08:54:43 pm
Turns out they forgot to tick the setting in Zoom that disallows anyone from speaking without permission, while holding the meeting on a public channel (the latter isn't dumb, it's required by law, city council / parliament / senate meetings have to be public)New headcanon: The virus was released to increase the market for videoconferencing. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/zm)
That's one investment I bet many would have wanted to make (well before now). Or, having missed that bubble, sell pizzas (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52724062).
Yeah I'd never heard of Zoom until Covid-19. I guess it's been around for a while though? I'd love to know how many senators quietly bought stock right before it was declared a pandemic.....
I used it today for a conference with a customer. But we've been using Discord internally pretty well. Its penetration in to the educational market has been substantial though, from what I understand.
Post by: Starver on May 20, 2020, 10:03:36 pm
Yeah I'd never heard of Zoom until Covid-19. I guess it's been around for a while though?Wikipedia says: "Eric Yuan, a former Cisco Webex engineer and executive, founded Zoom in 2011, and launched its software in 2013. Zoom's aggressive revenue growth, and perceived ease-of-use and reliability of its software, resulted in a $1 billion valuation in 2017, making it a "unicorn" company. The company first became profitable in 2019. In 2019, the company completed an initial public offering. The company joined the NASDAQ-100 stock index on April 30, 2020."
Not exactly new (though it had passed me by, too) or even 'saved by the virus', but somehow they managed to be the thing (almost to videoconferencing what Hoover has been to vacuum cleaners), which must have annoyed Skype, and severly peeved the likes of Discord, MS (Netmeeting and/or Teams), etc. Right product at the right time, but with my personal reluctance/needlessness in this area of tech I can't say exactly what features (or lack of baggage) made them the most popular date to ask to the dance...
Post by: martinuzz on May 21, 2020, 02:41:03 am
Post by: hector13 on May 21, 2020, 06:53:29 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 21, 2020, 06:55:16 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 21, 2020, 06:59:48 am
Is it easy to hack or do people keep posting the meeting number and password in public places allowing people to mess them up?That's sort of what being easy to hack means. Boomers are the biggest open port of all.
Post by: Starver on May 21, 2020, 07:21:56 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 21, 2020, 10:50:53 am
I think the more humane thing to do is lift the lockdown, corona is a relatively fast painful death, while starvation is a gruesomely slow painful death.
Post by: TamerVirus on May 21, 2020, 10:53:27 am
Post by: Iduno on May 21, 2020, 10:54:22 am
Is it easy to hack or do people keep posting the meeting number and password in public places allowing people to mess them up?
Why can't we have both?
Post by: martinuzz on May 21, 2020, 10:56:08 am
Post by: Rolan7 on May 21, 2020, 11:44:11 am
(Apparently I remembered the old phrase backward, it was "feed a cold, starve a fever". It was based on the idea that someone with a fever was already too hot, and feeding them more would make that worse. And that people with colds were actually cold, so warming them up was good? It's not exactly modern advice...)
I guess it's possible that severe hunger could affect the progression of the disease... probably not in a positive way though, since I'd expect that to weaken the immune system. Might take the edge off some otherwise deadly fevers, maaaybe? But I would expect the illness and fever to last longer too.
I'm no doctor, I'm just trying to think about this horrific situation and rambling.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 21, 2020, 12:03:39 pm
I've had surgeons tell me similar things, how proper nutrition can affect wound healing drastically
Meanwhile in the South Americas, while infections are on the rise, countries are facing a choice between lifting the lockdown and letting many people die of corona, or not lifting the lockdown and letting even more people die of hunger.
I think the more humane thing to do is lift the lockdown, corona is a relatively fast painful death, while starvation is a gruesomely slow painful death.
I don't take any such claims at face value. South America is not 80s Ethiopia. Countries there have money. Certainly enough to avoid starvation. I think that, much like the Pakistani goverment's similar claim, they are by and large full of shit and are just exploring the possibility of going Bolsonaro mode.
Not that our goverments are much more honest mind you. They were lying from the get go. About severity, about protection, about face mask necessity... and probably are still lying about many other things even now.
I think the 27 all met and made a common deescalation plan which is surprisingly similar all accross Europe and verycentered on these turd's views of the economy, with the outbreak sizes a secondary consideration. I'd take any claims of safety with a pinch of salt. I fully plan to shelter in place until either we get a vaccine or I'm reasonably certain there wont be a second pandemic peak. The only exception I'm making is for work if my Irish contract goes forward (specially if my interview for a permanent post goes forward).
Post by: martinuzz on May 21, 2020, 01:03:00 pm
A Hongkong studies amongst 7324 corona infections across China found that only one of the infected persons contracted the virus outdoors; a 27-year old man who had a conversation with an acquaintance who had just returned from Wuhan.
The vast majority of infections occured inside people's homes, and in public transport.
Or more general, in places where people are in close proximity for extended periods of time.
" the importance of this find is not valued properly by authorities and policy makers" , say the scientists, lead by Li Yuguo of Hongkong University.
"The transmission of respiratory infections like sars-cov-2 is an indoor phenomenon.
Other scientists acknowledge the find.
" You always have to be very careful and check if your selection of data is unbiased" , says Jaap van Dissel, head epidemologist of the Dutch RIVM (the scientific institute that advises the government on the corona outbreak).
"The Hongkong scientist themselves have pointed out that transmission itself is biased towards indoor spread if only because in general, people spend more time indoors than outside. But even so, it is undoubtedly true that the virus will spread much less outdoors in the open than in enclosed areas. The wind will spread it thin and UV light will deactivate the virus."
Professor in clinical virology Louis Kroes: "You have to be careful, the one outdoors is not the other outdoors", referring to roofed in terraces and party tents, "but in the normal outdoor open, good luck trying to spread the virus, you won't succeed. There simply isn't any evidence that repiratory virusses like this one can be transmitted in the open outdoor air, in any way relevant to an epidemic proportion".
Kroes is sceptical about the strict enforcement of the one-and-a-half meter distance rule (the dutch standard, other countries have other distances people should keep between themselves)."
People want clarity and unambiguouty. But we are taking it too far".
For an example, Kroes points out the debates city councils are having now about how to deal with sidewalks that are less than 1.5m wide.
"When I hear that I'm like, do you really have to make an issue out of everything? It would make perfect sense if you would have different standards for outdoor environments".
Still, it all depends on circumstances, all experts agree."Transmission of the virus outdoors cannot be completely ruled out", Yuguo says. "Exposure time is the most important factor. having an animated conversation for hours on a terrace will assist the virus more than a walk in the park".
It's all about situations were transmission can take place for a prolonged period of time", says Kroes."Just passing each other on the street is unimportant for transmission".
Soooo.. I guess the solution for the corona crisis is to close down all indoor jobs and evict everyone from their homes. And everyone lives long and homeless everafter.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 21, 2020, 01:08:38 pm
Quote
The Hongkong scientist themselves have pointed out that transmission itself is biased towards indoor spread if only because in general, people spend more time indoors than outside.Well duh. People are catching it at home because they are at home. If everyone lived outdoors then all contagions would be on the street. Even if its technically less likely to catch it if you're close to someone infested outside than if you're close to someone infested inside, if this is an attempt to srgue against lockdowns its asinine. What all this underlines is that contagions are person to person
Post by: Max™ on May 21, 2020, 03:03:43 pm
Looking at the numbers and how they changed with the lag times involved, though we lacked a full shelter-in-place order, the patchwork of lockdowns we had through april were working and are why the numbers started to plateau/daily deaths stopped going up so quickly.
June is going to be a clusterfuck.
1.6 million cases, 96k deaths, 40k tests per 1 million people, still around 1/3rd known cases and deaths right here in the US.
Post by: TD1 on May 21, 2020, 03:50:37 pm
Post by: birdy51 on May 21, 2020, 04:13:33 pm
My only hope in all of this mess is that what actions we have been taking is enough to keep it from spiraling out like a wildfire as people start leaving their houses.
Post by: Iduno on May 21, 2020, 04:17:08 pm
Americans don't want to be inconvenienced or constrained by it.
It's like voluntary eugenics, except it doesn't work as well as you would hope.
Post by: martinuzz on May 21, 2020, 06:05:14 pm
President Ramzan Kadyrov is known for his hard handed approaches, including with the current corona crisis.
He called doctors that complained about lack of protective gear 'provokers', and called people that do not quarantaine themselves 'terrorists that should be killed and buried in ditches'.
It is unknown how serious the condition of the 43 year old president is.
Post by: Iduno on May 21, 2020, 09:01:12 pm
The president of the Chechen republic has been infected with corona. He has been flown to Moscow and admitted to hospital.
President Ramzan Kadyrov is known for his hard handed approaches, including with the current corona crisis.
He called doctors that complained about lack of protective gear 'provokers', and called people that do not quarantaine themselves 'terrorists that should be killed and buried in ditches'.
It is unknown how serious the condition of the 43 year old president is.
Didn't the Chechens kind of humiliate Putin when they won independence? And they also have the opposing view of how to deal with CORVID? I'm guessing his case is very severe, and mutates into a version that kills you in ways that require your body to be disposed over before an autopsy.
Post by: hector13 on May 21, 2020, 09:15:59 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 21, 2020, 09:57:26 pm
Chechens lost the war. That guy is Putin's stooge. IIRC they installed a fairly brutal regional govermentThe president of the Chechen republic has been infected with corona. He has been flown to Moscow and admitted to hospital.
President Ramzan Kadyrov is known for his hard handed approaches, including with the current corona crisis.
He called doctors that complained about lack of protective gear 'provokers', and called people that do not quarantaine themselves 'terrorists that should be killed and buried in ditches'.
It is unknown how serious the condition of the 43 year old president is.
Didn't the Chechens kind of humiliate Putin when they won independence? And they also have the opposing view of how to deal with CORVID? I'm guessing his case is very severe, and mutates into a version that kills you in ways that require your body to be disposed over before an autopsy.
Post by: Reelya on May 22, 2020, 04:01:27 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings
Quote
A suspicious device resembling those used in the bombings was found and defused in an apartment block in the Russian city of Ryazan on 22 September. The next day, Vladimir Putin praised the vigilance of the inhabitants of Ryazan and ordered the air bombing of Grozny, which marked the beginning of the Second Chechen War. Three FSB agents who had planted the devices at Ryazan were arrested by the local police. On 24 September 1999, head of FSB Nikolay Patrushev announced that the incident in Ryazan had been an anti-terror drill and the device found there contained only sugar.
Which is way fishy. Why would you do an anti-terror drill of this sort in an occupied apartment building, where there are clearly no shortage of run down and vacant buildings in Russia of all places? Secondly, if it was a drill and was only sugar, then why would Putin bomb Grozny in response? Surely he would have known they weren't real bombs. The most likely explanation is that the FSB was behind the string of bombings, to build up public agitation, but when their guys got caught planting one, they moved up their plans and immediately bombed Chechnya to distract people from the discovery.
Post by: Iduno on May 22, 2020, 06:29:03 pm
Chechens lost the war. That guy is Putin's stooge. IIRC they installed a fairly brutal regional govermentThe president of the Chechen republic has been infected with corona. He has been flown to Moscow and admitted to hospital.
President Ramzan Kadyrov is known for his hard handed approaches, including with the current corona crisis.
He called doctors that complained about lack of protective gear 'provokers', and called people that do not quarantaine themselves 'terrorists that should be killed and buried in ditches'.
It is unknown how serious the condition of the 43 year old president is.
Didn't the Chechens kind of humiliate Putin when they won independence? And they also have the opposing view of how to deal with CORVID? I'm guessing his case is very severe, and mutates into a version that kills you in ways that require your body to be disposed over before an autopsy.
Huh. I remember them taking out guard stations all over the country, and surprisingly effective guerilla warfare, then someone preventing Russia from invading and killing everyone, then I got busy with school and it fell off my radar. Did I just imagine it ending?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 22, 2020, 06:42:51 pm
You missed the real endingChechens lost the war. That guy is Putin's stooge. IIRC they installed a fairly brutal regional govermentThe president of the Chechen republic has been infected with corona. He has been flown to Moscow and admitted to hospital.
President Ramzan Kadyrov is known for his hard handed approaches, including with the current corona crisis.
He called doctors that complained about lack of protective gear 'provokers', and called people that do not quarantaine themselves 'terrorists that should be killed and buried in ditches'.
It is unknown how serious the condition of the 43 year old president is.
Didn't the Chechens kind of humiliate Putin when they won independence? And they also have the opposing view of how to deal with CORVID? I'm guessing his case is very severe, and mutates into a version that kills you in ways that require your body to be disposed over before an autopsy.
Huh. I remember them taking out guard stations all over the country, and surprisingly effective guerilla warfare, then someone preventing Russia from invading and killing everyone, then I got busy with school and it fell off my radar. Did I just imagine it ending?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechen%E2%80%93Russian_conflict
Basically they killed the moderate leader who was keeping the coalition together and everything fell to pieces
Quote
The most recent conflict between Chechen and the Russian government took place in the 1990s. As the Soviet Union disintegrated, the Chechen separatists declared independence in 1991. By late 1994 the First Chechen War broke out and after two years of fighting the Russian forces withdrew from the region. In 1999, the fighting restarted and in the next year the Russian security forces established control over Chechnya, with insurgency continuing for over a decade afterwards.
Post by: Iduno on May 23, 2020, 11:30:15 am
Fun, when combined with https://www.npr.org/2020/05/19/858977838/florida-fires-a-scientist-for-her-refusal-to-manipulate-states-coronavirus-data (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/19/858977838/florida-fires-a-scientist-for-her-refusal-to-manipulate-states-coronavirus-data)
Post by: Starver on May 23, 2020, 01:26:26 pm
(Buried in the midst of https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000htw2 and https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000j949 are the details, assuming you want to listen to them.)
Not combining antigen/antibody tests, IIRC, but still misrepresenting the numbers of to justify 'meeting' their rather hopeful targets.
Post by: TamerVirus on May 27, 2020, 11:51:10 am
We'll see how effective this is soon enough
Post by: McTraveller on May 27, 2020, 03:39:31 pm
A bunch of folk are treating as if Coronavirus just isn't a thing anymore. Party time at the beach/park/pool!Hey on the plus side, in the US at least, that 1.7M confirmed cases number of infected, with a population of 330M, means fewer than 8 doublings are required to infect everyone. So if we can get our doubling rate back up to 4 days, we can get everyone infected in a month, and then one month after that everyone will have died or recovered, and we'll be all set!
We'll see how effective this is soon enough
Sarcasm aside, I'm not sure what to make of the ratio of confirmed cases to tests. Isn't the more relevant stat simply confirmed cases per population? Since any person that is a negative test may, at some future point, become infected?
Are there any sites that are reporting number of people with confirmed antibodies, or is that included in the "confirmed cases" numbers?
Post by: Frumple on May 27, 2020, 03:49:09 pm
It's basically a measure of how badly the country in question is fucking up, broadly speaking. Higher means you're fucking up worse, somewhere in the 2% or lower range means you might just have enough information to keep things more or less under control, if you're not doing something staggeringly stupid in regards to your testing practices.
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 27, 2020, 04:14:53 pm
Article regarding modern day hesitancy to take the COVID vaccine, and how America's racist history plays into it.
Post by: Max™ on May 27, 2020, 05:43:42 pm
The good news, of a sort, is that what it really means is that we're testing way too many people who obviously are infected.
That downside of that good news is those numbers are then useless for getting an accurate sense of how far it has spread through the population.
Test everybody, 330 million~ people, find 1.7 million cases, you found everyone and it's under control by definition.
Test 1 in 10, 33 million~ people, find 1.7 million cases, assuming you randomly sampled the population you would want to assume you have 17 million cases floating around, worst case scenario, it's in no way close to controlled.
Test 1 in 20, 16.5 million~ people, find 1.7 million cases, again assuming randomly sampled scenario with no weighting, there might be 34 million cases, which is pretty fucking bad, but we can't even make that sort of guess because we're weighting the testing towards those with obvious symptoms, and these results would only be useful if we were actually being proactive and doing contact tracing to determine possible infections and spread, but we aren't doing that so it's like quickly turning the lights off in a dance club and taking a flash photo of the people around you so you can try to figure out what song is playing.
Post by: ZBridges on May 28, 2020, 12:53:51 am
Here's a comparison to illustrate the difference:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Kagus on May 28, 2020, 01:08:38 am
US deaths from COVID-19 have just now (by the official count, at least) passed 100,000.
*Toots party horn*
*Confetti falls*
*The confetti is anthrax*
Post by: Starver on May 28, 2020, 01:30:06 am
(And I've got a bridge to sell you, too. It... stops gayness. Or keeps you gay. That's how clever the bridge is. Very cheap, love you long time!)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 28, 2020, 01:34:10 am
What y'all need to do is buy expensive 5G-blocking USB sticks... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52810220).It makes sense folks. I mean, a bridge that stops gayness from getting in should also stop it from getting out.
(And I've got a bridge to sell you, too. It... stops gayness. Or keeps you gay. That's how clever the bridge is. Very cheap, love you long time!)
Post by: ZBridges on May 28, 2020, 01:35:47 am
Post by: wierd on May 28, 2020, 01:46:43 am
If you mean, "Vacuum energy oscillations", I want to see the Nobel prize they are hiding. If you mean "quantum state tipping due to random thermal excitation states", then that totally is doable, and resulted in the "Over-Unity" (ahem) semiconductor junction results from some years back. (https://phys.org/news/2012-03-efficiency.html) (basically, a warm LED, held at JUUUUUUUUST under the bandgap energy, will have that bandgap energy tipped by thermal oscillations, converting the thermal energy into the needed potential to push an electron over the bandgap, which is an inherently quantum process. In the process, the diode becomes cooler, and a photon is emitted. It is "over unity" in terms of electrical energy inputted, and photons emitted. The extra energy is not magical, it comes from conversion of heat in the environment.)
Post by: Bralbaard on May 28, 2020, 04:31:24 am
https://www.technobabble.biz/ (https://www.technobabble.biz/)
Post by: McTraveller on May 29, 2020, 09:34:50 am
Incidentally this the main cause of the complaints about the leadership here in MI: they just say "This is what we are doing, and we are monitoring and may change our minds" but there is no transparency so nobody knows what to expect and it all feels arbitrary.
Personally though this sucks - now I have to maintain a portable pool at my house. We had an above-ground when I was a kid and I hated it. I really don't want the maintenance hassle, even though the one my wife bought is only 8 foot diameter and 2 feet deep. 750 gallons.... *sigh*
EDIT dang I can't even do math today...
Post by: Frumple on May 29, 2020, 09:46:03 am
Post by: TamerVirus on May 29, 2020, 09:49:53 am
Post by: McTraveller on May 29, 2020, 09:50:10 am
... like, man, "have to" is a hell of a turn of phraseWhen you are married and have kids, your perspective on "have to" changes dramatically...
Post by: Kagus on May 29, 2020, 10:11:01 am
I imagine that the realization of the fact that we're in a crippling and even lethal pandemic also changes one's perception of "have to".... like, man, "have to" is a hell of a turn of phraseWhen you are married and have kids, your perspective on "have to" changes dramatically...
Post by: Frumple on May 29, 2020, 10:22:41 am
I mean, the number of folks in my area that meet those conditions without having a pool or trying to maintain one is... not small. 'Cause, y'know, lotta' folks 'round here are frikkin' poor. Little kiddy pool might be a thing (though even that's fairly rare), but it doesn't sound like you're talking the cheap-ish inflatable shit.... like, man, "have to" is a hell of a turn of phraseWhen you are married and have kids, your perspective on "have to" changes dramatically...
Your perspective does change, but not towards the direction of a pool being a necessity, from what I've noticed, basically. Rather the opposite, even.
Any case, the statement that it's a necessity is a pretty damn alien mindset to me stands, heh. Back when I was a kid I think we tried the inflatable thing like... one summer, and then just kinda' went without most years.
Post by: McTraveller on May 29, 2020, 10:35:52 am
I could say "no" but then I'd be reminded even more than I already am by my wife and kids that "all I do is say 'no'". In a world that has gone mad (sorry, I do think that closing pools for this is mad. It is way beyond sensible precaution and into the "we're so scared we don't even want to come within a mile of something that maybe could get us into liability trouble" territory. Basically "we don't have in place the real things we need to help public health like good tests and contact tracing, so we have to force everyone to stay isolated and separated")...
Anyway, in a world that has gone mad, "having to" set up a (yes it is an inflatable) pool to give my kids something to do outside is an inconvenience, but one that I'm able to do, thankfully.
Post by: Starver on May 29, 2020, 10:53:24 am
Lots of people stocking up on backyard pools in anticipation of a social distance summer. Reports saying demand is through the roofIf you put a portable pool up on your roof, it'll probably be through it, yes, because that confined water will be heavy and you probably normally don't have more than a few simultaneous inches of rain at the absolute worst of times.
Just sayin'.
Post by: misko27 on May 29, 2020, 03:03:14 pm
I broke the other link, use that one.
Edit: fixed nytimes link: fixed (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/us/coronavirus-us-usa.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 29, 2020, 03:05:03 pm
stonks
Post by: Starver on May 29, 2020, 04:18:32 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 29, 2020, 05:06:26 pm
Snake Plissken's third film will be Escape From The United States
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: TamerVirus on May 29, 2020, 08:58:48 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on May 29, 2020, 09:00:25 pm
Post by: Folly on May 30, 2020, 03:58:14 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 30, 2020, 05:32:47 am
Post by: Zangi on May 30, 2020, 05:39:07 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 30, 2020, 12:20:41 pm
We're down from about 1400 at the peak to 170.
Of those remaining 170 patients, the average time they have spent on the ICU is 41 days (!!).
The average number of days on the ICU for surviving patients that were transferred to normal hospital wards is 19 days.
Geesh. 41 days on ICU. 41 days in a medical coma. Those patients are not going to have much of a life left if they ever regain consciousness.
They will probably spend the rest of their lives at plant consciousness hooked to life support.
Of the 2900 total patients that were admitted to ICU, 827 have died.
5 new patients were admitted to hospital today.
Post by: misko27 on May 30, 2020, 12:58:27 pm
In Brazil, uh, shits fucked. With the second highest number of cases, Brazil's outbreak shows no sign of slowing. The cases and death count continue to mount, increasing more quickly than any other. In spite of this, some areas in Brazil are reopening, including the Epicenter, Sao Paulo (https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/864736407/as-brazils-covid-19-cases-continue-to-climb-some-areas-prepare-to-ease-restricti). This only adds to an intensifying political crisis: Bolsonaro is under investigation for corruption, interfering with police matters, and other crimes, while denouncing investigators, the supreme court, the media, the legislature and others in mass rallies. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/29/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-supreme-court.html)
And in the number one, the US of A, the Supreme Court narrowly rejected claims from a California church that the restrictions on occupancy consistuted an unfair restriction (https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/30/politics/supreme-court-california-church-coronavirus/index.html) on freedom of religion, siding with lower courts and the state government that the restrictions were equivalent to other restrictions on secular businesses. 5-4 decision with Chief Justice Robert's as the tiebreaker.
Post by: Akura on May 31, 2020, 10:44:06 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 31, 2020, 11:39:04 am
Hope you have some fond memories to remember him by.
Post by: NJW2000 on June 01, 2020, 04:51:25 am
Not sure why the decision was taken to ease restrictions prematurely. Can think of a couple of possible reasons, none of them good.
Can't rule out the possibility that the handful of people running the show have suffered permenant brain damage from Covid. What else would possess our PM's key advisor, Dominic Cummings, not only to edit a blog post from 2019 to specifically mention coronaviruses (https://fullfact.org/health/cummings-blog-coronavirus/) but to draw attention to it by boasting in a televised interview that he'd written about the dangers of such viruses before the outbreak.
Post by: Starver on June 01, 2020, 05:25:52 am
My actual non-conspiracy-theory opinion (or at least less of one) is that it's to justify "as good as Europe" for the Brexit-to-be, though that's probably a conversation for another thread, if there is one for it at all.
Personal update: Having escaped Early Pollen-Season, fairly unscathed, it appears no such luck with the present one. (It's Oil Seed Rape flowering-time out there, plain enough to see and
[1] Probably inately immune?
Post by: McTraveller on June 01, 2020, 08:01:08 am
I mean - I don't get worried about the annual waves of seasonal flu. Is there a reason I need to be worried about the seasonal waves of Coronavirus?
I mean I'm trying to be positive, but I'm not sure given all the civil unrest we're having here in the States that the virus is even going to matter in a few weeks. I am sad that I, along with many others, predicted that lockdowns in the US that lasted much longer than 2 months would result in social breakdown because people just can't handle the idleness. Tens of millions of people don't have jobs because of the lockdowns so without that fear of losing their job they are much more willing to do "risky" things.
Post by: Frumple on June 01, 2020, 08:31:40 am
Aren't we very likely going to have a second seasonal wave again in the winter anyway? Or is the concern more about the severity of the wave?god damn fucking hell this virus is like ten fucking times deadlier than our seasonal flu strains
I mean - I don't get worried about the annual waves of seasonal flu. Is there a reason I need to be worried about the seasonal waves of Coronavirus?
That is your fucking reason to be worried about seasonal waves of the crow plague, holy shit.
Our seasonal flu strains also kill tens of thousands annually just in the goddamn US, that we don't treat it more seriously is a fucking condemnation for our nation, not a reason to try to downplay something significantly more deadly than them.
Post by: McTraveller on June 01, 2020, 08:36:10 am
Post by: Starver on June 01, 2020, 08:40:58 am
Obviously, other parts of the world have other problems. Monsoons in the Indian Ocean (drifting over to die their vigirous last gasp in Western Australia) doubtless complicates the current precautions over there by a not insignificant amount. A major earthquake could cause some of the less-NZlike nations bordering the Pacific rim to have further issues (even if NZ seems to do well with both viral and geological threats, usually). The rioting in the US can be considered a socio-economical disaster to co-exist with the healthcare issues[1]. Locally, apart from a recent forest fire down in ?Devon?, likely started by sneakily non-licked-down visitors with a single-use BBQ tray left in an unsafe condition and a handful of households who cannot stay at home (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-52868241), right now there seems nothing unduly problematic over and above the virus.
But if it spikes later in the year with other treacherous conditions affecting the nation, whatever they might be, it could be awkward.
(Not really a direct reply to Mc, Frump or Mc again, but some thoughts I've been developing that Mc's initial post prompted me to set down.)
[1] Though it at least encourages mask-wearing. Remember that just a month or two before Wuhan, Hong Kong was being aggressively policed against mask-wearing, for public order 'reasons', then in life's great twist the exact opposite convention became supremely de rigour all across China for health reasons. Which was funny when I thought of it in those terms.
Post by: misko27 on June 01, 2020, 12:34:41 pm
(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-brazil/u-s-sends-brazil-2-million-doses-of-hydroxychloroquine-drug-touted-by-trump-idUSKBN2370RU)
Quote
HCQ will be used as a prophylactic to help defend Brazil’s nurses, doctors and healthcare professionals against the virus. It will also be used as a therapeutic to treat Brazilians who become infected.(Note that no one, not even the supporters of Hydroxychloroquine, recommends that it be used preventatively).
Almost casually they also mention they will send 1000 ventilators as well, so perhaps not entirely useless, but damn, real "blind leading the blind" stuff here.
Post by: Starver on June 01, 2020, 01:32:26 pm
The question is whether Brazil is believing the Trump line or is just consciously echoing him. (Whether or not Trump/Bolsonaro each believes it themselves, every which way.)
Post by: martinuzz on June 02, 2020, 05:16:19 am
Getting caught having sex with someone else will be fined with 50 pounds.
It has also been decreed that sex out in the open air is not allowed as long as social distancing measures are in place.
It is not yet clear how the government is going to enforce this. Perhaps now is a good time to invest in a Dick and Pussy-cam company.
Post by: Jimmy on June 02, 2020, 05:42:50 am
Because the lockdown rules are about to be loosened, and people will be allowed to have visitors again, the UK government has decided that people are no longer allowed to have sex with anyone else than their regular sex partner.This list is a glorious testament to the collective UK habits regarding normal sexual behavior.
Getting caught having sex with someone else will be fined with 50 pounds.
It has also been decreed that sex out in the open air is not allowed as long as social distancing measures are in place.
It is not yet clear how the government is going to enforce this. Perhaps now is a good time to invest in a Dick and Pussy-cam company.
Also, because of line one and three together, I guess the sheep farmers are gonna spend a lot of time in their barns.
Post by: Starver on June 02, 2020, 06:36:48 am
Meanwhile, the government says the "virtual parliament" isn't working so is looking towards a vote against that, which will not allow those who are justifisbly benefitting from it to make their own vote count.
Also sheanigans over "total tests available", rather than tests actually done or counting the people tested.
Worst news of all, the Royal Shakespeare Company has cancelled its entire 2020 season!
Post by: martinuzz on June 02, 2020, 06:41:41 am
Post by: Reelya on June 02, 2020, 09:10:43 am
Worrying thing here, the loss of taste and smell some people get from this virus apparently isn't going away for some people. Quote from the above article but from Slashdot since the original is paywalled:
Quote
Clinicians racing to understand the novel disease are starting to discern an unusual trend: one common symptom -- the loss of smell and taste -- can linger months after recovery. Doctors say it is possible some survivors may never taste or smell again. Out of 417 patients who suffered mild to moderate forms of Covid-19 in Europe, 88% and 86% reported taste and smell dysfunctions, respectively, according to a study published in April in the European Archives of Oto-Rhino-Laryngology. Most patients said they couldn't taste or smell even after other symptoms were gone. Preliminary data showed at least a quarter of people regained their ability to taste and smell within two weeks of other symptoms dissipating. The study said long-term data are needed to assess how long this can last in people who didn't report an improvement.
Anyone who has had the sniffles knows a stuffy nose impedes smell and taste; the novel coronavirus's ability to break down smell receptors is puzzling because it occurs without nasal congestion. One theory is that the "olfactory receptors that go to the brain -- that are essentially like a highway to the brain -- commit suicide so they can't carry the virus to the brain," said Danielle Reed, associate director of the Monell Chemical Senses Center. "It could be a healthy reaction to the virus. If that doesn't work, maybe people do get sicker," she said. "It might be a positive takeaway from what is obviously a devastating loss to people."
Post by: scriver on June 02, 2020, 09:20:33 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on June 02, 2020, 09:36:40 am
Why this name?
Post by: Starver on June 02, 2020, 09:44:34 am
What the UK really needs is a ministry of silly walks to aid social distancing.Funnily enough: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-berkshire-52819428/silly-walks
Exactly. Those are clearly vegetables.Why this name?
Post by: Kagus on June 02, 2020, 10:00:40 am
Probably.
Post by: scriver on June 02, 2020, 11:05:20 am
Why this name?
I have no idea. I saw them in the back of the store i work in yesterday (forgot to upload and post) and thought it was funny. The name is just what they're called.
Or maybe coop is part of a great conspiracy to spread ebola to the Swedish people
You'll know it by whether I'm suddenly lot less full of shit
Post by: TamerVirus on June 04, 2020, 06:23:27 pm
George Floyd tested positive for COVID 19, an autopsy revealed.
The study that indicated that hydroxychloroquine led to an increased risk was formally retracted (https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/article/s0140673620313246) today after the data the study used was called into question
Post by: Max™ on June 05, 2020, 12:13:11 am
Post by: scriver on June 05, 2020, 12:42:42 am
I'm not sure how it will up the stats. Stockholm has the highest rate of infection but Scania/Malmö has lower rates than the capital region of Denmark. Stockholm will undoubtedly get a rise but I really hope Scania stays down (maybe hope in vain, but hope is hope). The thing about it not affecting stats very much was that while Sweden has been sloping downwards for the some weeks in the very last one we began to see a rise again. It's basically being written to Stockholm and Gothenburg people stopping to care about social distancing (again). So we were likely going to have about two weeks of rise or not-fall of the numbers anyway before we will even add the results of the protests. We'll see how it does.
Remember to ma ma ma mask (https://youtu.be/o2Z1yLO9C-Q) up if you go out to do the crowdy things please
Post by: Max™ on June 05, 2020, 12:47:11 am
Post by: Bumber on June 05, 2020, 02:14:29 am
M.A.S.K.! Do they know... command doesn't start with a K? M.A.S.K.! The things that they turn into, are worse than they were before!
<I_understood_that_reference.jpg>
Post by: Starver on June 05, 2020, 02:57:57 am
All of the Vicious Evil Network Of Mayhem's vehicles were originally intended for the 'Kommand' before Miles stole them all. And the M.A.S.K. Masks tended towards ethereal effects (antigravity, sound, light, holograms, etc) while the V.E.N.O.M. Masks tended to be physical projectors (acid, knives, ball-bearings, etc), although there were exceptions (the token Native American who enrolled to the good guys at a later point, after using up most other cultural reference points, had... a Totem-Pole throwing Mask!).
Thank you for reminding me of somebody else's youth.
Post by: Frumple on June 05, 2020, 07:00:14 am
I must admit I am highly jealous of the South European protests that managed to -- or at least made a basic attempt to -- mind social distancing. Sweden's protests didn't.Hell, for what it's worth, from what I've noticed many of the protests here in the states tried to, as well. Usually right up until the chemical weapons and assault started coming at them, then things broke down a bit.
Post by: scriver on June 05, 2020, 08:44:06 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 05, 2020, 02:05:47 pm
Btw I heard there's a slight rebound ongoing in at least some places in the US?
Post by: scriver on June 05, 2020, 02:14:01 pm
I don't know which parts of S.E. you mean, but here if there was social distancing in place was mostly because there weren't many people protesting in the first place...
I saw the dutchmen post about Amsterdam
Post by: TamerVirus on June 05, 2020, 02:25:56 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 05, 2020, 02:40:54 pm
I don't know which parts of S.E. you mean, but here if there was social distancing in place was mostly because there weren't many people protesting in the first place...
I saw the dutchmen post about Amsterdam
You know you can't define southern Europe by "anything that's south of Sweden" right 😜
Post by: scriver on June 05, 2020, 03:09:21 pm
I don't know which parts of S.E. you mean, but here if there was social distancing in place was mostly because there weren't many people protesting in the first place...
I saw the dutchmen post about Amsterdam
You know you can't define southern Europe by "anything that's south of Sweden" right 😜
I do can and there's nothing you can do to stop me!
The only thing I can't do is figure out how to put a smiley in the post like that
Also this is literally how you define "northern Europe" yourself! 😜😜😜
Post by: Imic on June 05, 2020, 03:43:23 pm
Post by: Starver on June 05, 2020, 05:15:48 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 05, 2020, 05:50:51 pm
South Europe begins somewhere halfway down the southern part of France.
Netherlands, Germany, Denmark etc. are usually classified as Western Europe.
Saying the Netherlands is in the south part of Europe is like saying Canada in the south part of the US (Netherlands is at about the same latitude as Quebec, slightly more to the north even)
Post by: Max™ on June 05, 2020, 08:00:13 pm
Post by: Magistrum on June 06, 2020, 09:31:42 am
The network replied by throwing a news alert with the numbers during the most watched telenovela.
Today the panel is 'under maintenance' and shows nothing. (https://covid.saude.gov.br/)
The SUS Coronavirus app had it's "Epidemiological Situation" tab removed also.
Sorry, I meant bad. Bad news.
Post by: Rolan7 on June 07, 2020, 02:20:08 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 08, 2020, 03:11:23 pm
Perhaps more important than abolishing police forces, it is about time CEO's were abolished.
Post by: Frumple on June 08, 2020, 04:40:52 pm
Post by: Iduno on June 09, 2020, 08:59:59 am
Bad Medicine is what I need."
Post by: TamerVirus on June 09, 2020, 09:52:18 am
(so pretty much nothing new for the average joe)
Post by: McTraveller on June 09, 2020, 12:01:26 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on June 09, 2020, 12:16:17 pm
What is this stuff from the WHO saying that "asymptomatic transmission is rare"?They already walked that statement back, those bums!
Their new position is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, who the fuck knows (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52977940)
Post by: Starver on June 09, 2020, 01:05:47 pm
But someone who is yet to show symptoms might still be silent-spreaders in the time before they realise they've 'caught'. (And, especially in the time before people even appreciated that we had a nu-flu on the go, that can still have driven the "asymptomatic spread" bit. Presymptomatic, is probably the better term for that.)
It's a subtle difference, that can't be properly looked at in real-time (not without arbitrary testing of everyone), but might be teased out from historical questioning.
Post by: scriver on June 09, 2020, 01:42:44 pm
Post by: Reelya on June 10, 2020, 08:14:53 am
Great news here in Brazil! The president ordered the day's statistics on new infections and deaths to be delayed to 10pm to avoid the most watched news program reporting on it.
The network replied by throwing a news alert with the numbers during the most watched telenovela.
Today the panel is 'under maintenance' and shows nothing. (https://covid.saude.gov.br/)
The SUS Coronavirus app had it's "Epidemiological Situation" tab removed also.
Sorry, I meant bad. Bad news.
An update on that. Data's not only being delayed: they used the weekend to wipe the servers:
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/brazil-ordered-to-reinstate-coronavirus-data/news-story/b83bca501a664b1320f6e7420ecc782d
Quote
Brazil’s Health Ministry deleted troves of detailed data over the weekend and announced it would no longer publish the country’s daily cases or fatality figures.
In an attempt to cover up the crisis, the country’s health ministry wiped months of coronavirus data – a move they’ll now have to reverse.
In a statement posted to the Supreme Court website in the early hours of Tuesday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes said the Health Ministry must “fully re-establish the daily dissemination of epidemiological data on the COVID-19 pandemic”.
The government’s actions in recent days has made it “impossible” to monitor the spread of the virus and to implement adequate and necessary control and prevention policies, he said.
Good luck with getting the data back however. They've gone full coverup mode.
Post by: Doomblade187 on June 10, 2020, 08:17:42 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 10, 2020, 09:49:20 am
They already walked that statement back, those bums!How in the world do you take a qualified comment about an ongoing research and the subsequent clarification as their 'position' or walking back on anything?
Their new position is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, who the fuck knows (https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52977940)
Throughout the pandemic, the communication chain seems to have been:
1. Scientist makes a nuanced statement
2. Media picks it up and filters it through a black-or-white lens
3. Public takes the distorted message and goes to town with it
4. Scientist decides to maybe make clearer what was said in the light of the above
5. Media presents clarification as walking back
6. Public sees conflicting messages; doesn't bother to make an effort to understand the original message; resolves cognitive dissonance by declaring scientists bums and frauds. What do they know anyway.
It's like playing telephone in kindergarten, only you get to call the first person shifty because the original message is not what you heard.
Post by: TamerVirus on June 10, 2020, 10:28:23 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 10, 2020, 10:37:59 am
Post by: TamerVirus on June 10, 2020, 10:41:05 am
Post by: Greiger on June 10, 2020, 04:05:35 pm
The little things amuse me.
Post by: Max™ on June 11, 2020, 06:49:58 pm
Post by: Starver on June 11, 2020, 10:46:10 pm
A rolling 7-day average seems to be the usually useful figure. It's ~3.5 day (further) lag to actual game-changing events, either way, but effectively removes the blips/squelches inherent in the human observation/recording cycle.14-day R.A. would do that more, but also is less responsive, meaning an additional week (to base mean incubation period) would pass before you could be sure you see the results of an unlock-back-up/pool-party/rainy weather keeping everyone in their own homes instead of attending communal BBQs.
Post by: McTraveller on June 16, 2020, 08:46:41 am
Hahahahhaahaha.... *sob*
Post by: Frumple on June 16, 2020, 08:59:24 am
Post by: McTraveller on June 16, 2020, 09:02:45 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on June 16, 2020, 10:02:23 am
No, this is not the anti-vax stuff. This is now to the tune of like 200M people who just can't get the vaccines, not the loons who choose not to get it.Uh, 200 million would be 1/2-2/3 of the US population, is this an international number?
Post by: TamerVirus on June 16, 2020, 10:44:37 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on June 16, 2020, 10:46:24 am
Post by: nenjin on June 16, 2020, 10:47:39 am
Post by: Iduno on June 16, 2020, 02:16:37 pm
No, this is not the anti-vax stuff. This is now to the tune of like 200M people who just can't get the vaccines, not the loons who choose not to get it.
Although they are at risk because of the anti-vax assholes.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 16, 2020, 03:21:24 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 16, 2020, 07:00:43 pm
Apparently it has a significant effect of reducing death rate in severe cases that are coping with the disease for a longer time. It seems to have no effect whatsoever in mild cases.
Which leads me to think that a lot of ICU deaths are not actually due to the virus itself, but due to the immune response going haywire and doing damage even when the virus itself has been incapacitated.
It would be awesome if more studies prove it is indeed effective. Dexamethason is not super expensive either. It's a relatively cheap medicine (around 40 euros per dose).
Post by: nenjin on June 16, 2020, 07:27:54 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 16, 2020, 08:00:16 pm
Post by: Jimmy on June 17, 2020, 04:42:18 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 17, 2020, 11:51:06 am
.
Post by: nenjin on June 17, 2020, 12:19:35 pm
Big covid outbreak in Germany. 30 dead and 400 inffcted today. In a meat plant. Whats the deal with meatplants and covid
.
Probably the fact they're assembly lines where people work closely next to each other.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 17, 2020, 12:20:24 pm
Post by: Frumple on June 17, 2020, 12:30:02 pm
not doing that anymore
ha ha ha
:'(
Post by: McTraveller on June 17, 2020, 01:12:42 pm
Big covid outbreak in Germany. 30 dead and 400 inffcted today. In a meat plant. Whats the deal with meatplants and covid
.
I'm not sure how to parse that sentence. 30 people died in a meat plant? 30 new deaths in the entire country and, separately, 400 new confirmed cases all associated with the plant? (Incidentally, 30 deaths would've contracted the illness, what, 20 days ago?)
Post by: Iduno on June 17, 2020, 04:11:50 pm
Big covid outbreak in Germany. 30 dead and 400 inffcted today. In a meat plant. Whats the deal with meatplants and covid
.
Usually very few safety protections, and crowded working conditions. The meat companies claimed there was going to be a massive meat shortage, and got permission to ignore the safety restrictions. It turns out the "shortage" was because they wanted to open new markets in China to increase profits. They're global companies, so I assume the lies in Germany were the same as here.
Post by: Bralbaard on June 17, 2020, 04:35:26 pm
People want their cheap hamburgers though, its BBQ season.
Post by: Starver on June 17, 2020, 05:51:01 pm
:P
Post by: delphonso on June 17, 2020, 07:05:01 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 17, 2020, 09:03:51 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 18, 2020, 04:16:35 am
In the Netherlands there were issues as well at meat plants. Here it was mostly caused because most of the workers are laborers from eastern europe or elsewhere who live in cramped conditions and travel to work in small vans, where they are easily infected.And they they are not even looking at the real labour force in slaughterhouses. Most labourers there are illegal immigrants (uitgeprocedeerde asielzoekers) from Africa. The Polish labourers are just hired to keep up appearances of legal hiring.
People want their cheap hamburgers though, its BBQ season.
The problem with inspections of meat plants is that they are announced beforehand. So yeah, when the inspectors come and check, the illegal immigrants all have a day off and aren't there.
Post by: Starver on June 18, 2020, 08:39:47 am
No idea how many foreigners (even saeson) were involved.
Post by: thompson on June 21, 2020, 03:19:41 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 21, 2020, 04:19:33 pm
USA now has more confirmed COVID-19 cases than the entire continent of Europe. Granted, testing is probably more comprehensive in the US,
Only in Trump's imagination
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/
Quote
Tests per million
UAE 303,457
Qatar 110,289
Russia 107,445
UK 106,956
Spain 103,232
Portugal 101,227
Singapore 98,514
Belgium 91,135
Belarus 84,707
USA 80,755
Italy 79,908
Canada 60,837
Germany 60,038
Tests per confirmed case is probably more informative as some of those countries have done less testing because they controlled the outbreaks better. But the US doesnt do well there either
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-daily-tests-vs-daily-new-confirmed-cases-per-million
Post by: thompson on June 21, 2020, 06:07:26 pm
For the record, I suspect COVID-19 is more widespread in the US than Europe, but don’t have hard data on that. The trends are much clearer, and in the end it’s those trends we should be most concerned about.
Post by: dragdeler on June 21, 2020, 06:28:57 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 21, 2020, 06:57:51 pm
Post by: dragdeler on June 21, 2020, 07:05:06 pm
Post by: dragdeler on June 21, 2020, 07:10:45 pm
Post by: Frumple on June 21, 2020, 08:07:43 pm
Mind you, the tests are also somewhat shitty so if there's not a fair amount of redundancy, you're probably missing infected, so... yeah.
Post by: Starver on June 21, 2020, 08:50:27 pm
When, despite all this (and other practices) they still needed to make it look like more tests were done than were (already a small multiple of the number of people tested) they added in all thr testing kits mailed out to people on that day. After all, they'd now done as much as they could to ensure the test took place (they can't be held accountable for the delivery, the person taking the test[1], the person returning test, the lab properly processing that test and the test not turning out to be ambiguous, after everything else) so obviously they count it as a test as soon as it is first sent out..?
Then they stopped working on numbers of tests done (or 'in progress', however hazily) and switched to testing capacity. If they had test kits piling up and lab-time ready to process them but there just wasn't the footfall or not enough people got to the point of mail-ordering their kit, that shouldn't impact upon the potential number of tests done (however imaginatively) as an ever more ambitious target waa stretched for and desperately needed to be seen to be accomplished.
Then they added in tests done to test the tests (or potentially done) and even the new capacity to conduct antibody testing, even though it wasn't the kind of test they were promising this target to accomplish and wasn't even being used yet, just paid for (or invoiced for?) and actually sitting idle waiting for the time they'd eventually usefully switch to "have you had it" over the currently required "have you got it".
*Woooooosh.....* *BOOM BOOM*
Wow, those goalposts have broken the sound barrier, they've been moving so fast.
[1] Apparently some versions asked that a single swab (and just a single end of that swab..) be used to self-sample deeply into the recipients throat and nose. So not sure if that could ever count as "two tests", though I imagine it's possible.
Post by: hector13 on June 21, 2020, 09:28:00 pm
I think they wanted to perform 11k/day, but have fallen short of that number recently, after getting something along the lines of 8 consecutive days of at least that a few weeks ago.
Highest has been just about 16k in one day, at the start of that 8 day run.
Getting hundreds of positives a day regardless, amounting to around 2-4% of tests. Not sure if the tests aren’t getting done because people aren’t asking for them (I do believe that was something that wasn’t able to happen starting a few weeks ago) or they’re running low on supply/processing ability.
Not really sure how the process of opening up is going. I recall a proposed three stage plan from the governor back in May when the Republicans were all “myeh you can’t extend the stay at home order myeh” with the expectation that cases had to be showing a steady downward trend for 2 weeks prior to moving into the next stage, but I haven’t heard much since then, and as I say, cases are steadily showing that 2-3%/hundreds per day increase.
Post by: Iduno on June 22, 2020, 08:51:14 am
Europe still leads in deaths, but I don’t expect that to last.
Only because the US has quit reporting cause of death.
Post by: TamerVirus on June 22, 2020, 09:12:52 am
Post by: scriver on June 22, 2020, 09:46:13 am
...Well, with the exception of the communes and/or the landsthing s.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 22, 2020, 09:49:30 am
At this point everybody is fudging the numbers to suit there own agenda, be it creative counting/ deliberate lack of counting/ changing definitions/ etc.
Things are far less back to normal than the TV would have you believe . In theory all workplaces should be open and intra EU borders are open. In practice you go out and see many places remain closed, and the borders might be technically open but there are no flights so they might as well not be
Post by: McTraveller on June 22, 2020, 09:52:59 am
Europe still leads in deaths, but I don’t expect that to last.
Only because the US has quit reporting cause of death.
"The US" is a big place. My state is still reporting "probable" infections and deaths. But even those numbers are low - it's literally been more than 100 days since my state started its social distancing protocols though. We are just starting to lift some restrictions, so it will be interesting to see what happens even with these supposed "fudged" numbers.
Post by: Jimmy on June 23, 2020, 03:04:27 am
And poor New Zealand, you let one Brit in and they ruin the place. Think they'd have learnt their lesson back in the 19th century.
Post by: martinuzz on June 23, 2020, 03:39:44 am
Where it took more than 3 months for the first million people to be infected, the latest million infections occurred in only 8 days.
Post by: Frumple on June 23, 2020, 06:53:55 am
I don't welcome our reality breaking crow virus overlords, but I'd at least feel less bad about our species getting collectively shitkicked by them. Somewhat less bad. Maybe a little.
Post by: Zangi on June 23, 2020, 08:53:46 am
Post by: Frumple on June 23, 2020, 09:48:27 am
The concept of the TSA stepping up is pretty laughable, tho', so I'd image it's not going well.
Post by: Max™ on June 23, 2020, 10:22:28 am
I got no shame and am happy with my sitch down there so I'd definitely fluff beforehand and request the patdown. "Uh, sir... what is that" 'Dunno, give it a couple more passes and see what happens?' "That's weird, sir." 'Hey you're the one with rubber gloves on feeling up my junk, you telling me you don't have an erection?' "How dare you!" 'Oop, not allowed to get mad you piece of shit, you work at the TSA, they only hire subhuman trolls. *pinch, poke* you owe me a coke!'
Incidentally it seems like the knowledge that there would be protests and probable teargassing and such going on in various cities meant people changed their habits and stayed in more and on average it looks like the protests are not only goddamn justified and notably embarrassing those defending the status quo: they have actually helped quash infection rates due to the changed behaviors and damn near ubiquitous mask wearing by protestors.
Also, given the use of citations you can check and whatnot it matters less if various governments are less forthcoming because there are lots of different ways to cross check the various information heaps to sift out something closer to reality.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ says the US is at 2.39 megacases and Europe is only at 2.33 megacases so far, 122 kilodeaths here vs 188 kilodeaths there, nearing half a megadeath globally in large part due to our awesomeness at failing early, failing often, and apparently learning little from the experience.
Post by: Doomblade187 on June 23, 2020, 12:02:15 pm
Post by: McTraveller on June 23, 2020, 12:17:21 pm
Post by: Max™ on June 23, 2020, 12:29:04 pm
Post by: Frumple on June 23, 2020, 01:17:51 pm
*confirmed county cases spike a solid 25% overnight*
*despairing laughter*
Post by: Egan_BW on June 23, 2020, 03:48:58 pm
Considering Megadeth and Metallica are like dads and grandparents now, I think Kilodeth is a good name for the band their kids make unless they properly remetal and bust out some master of puppets shit, then they can be Gigadeth.Teradeath when.
Post by: wierd on June 23, 2020, 03:57:06 pm
You gotta be geekier, and throw in a pun.
Mebi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binary_prefix#mebi)Deth. Abbreviated as Mi[skull emoji (https://emojipedia.org/skull/)]
Post by: Starver on June 23, 2020, 05:06:57 pm
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-testing-slow-down-press-conference-today-arizona-a9581306.html
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
So, from what I read in that (see off-topic complaint in that spoiler), he's doubling down. Well, if he's still trying to get people to vote for him then it's probably the kind of people who understand (or care to understand) the situation as little as he appears to.
Post by: wierd on June 23, 2020, 06:03:55 pm
Trump is not operating in "The REAL world". Trump is operating in the "HyperNormalization (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fny99f8amM) World". The REAL world has things like "The testing numbers being accurate helps you make sound policy!" in it, where the HyperNormalization world, has "The outcome of testing can be whatever we say it should be, and our policy can reflect that at will, if we control all sources of testing and testing rates." in it.
I think the linked documentary should be required viewing when contemplating Trump and his "Administration". The HyperNormalization world is all about managing public PERCEPTIONS-- and PERCEPTIONS are intrinsically disconnected from any objective sources of truth. Example: Most people would find the idea of eating ditch weeds abhorrent, even though there are some that are not only nutritious, but also tasty. The objective fact is that those plants are delicious and tasty, and there is no reason not to eat them. The PERCEPTION is that those plants are in some way toxic, or undesirable.
Another disconnect with perception vs objectively-real, is racism. The racist harbors perceptions about another demographic that are incongruent with the objective reality that persons with different skin color are exactly the same kind of being that they are, with a minor physical variation.
Dealing with actual objectively-real situations, rather than the mass-perceptions of a public audience, leads to "Necessary but politically unpopular" actions being forced to be taken, which leads to political suicide. (You know, like ACTUALLY DOING THE RIGHT THING in regards to climate change.) If instead, you can alter public mass-perception (such as via controlling the media, or redefining academic sources of information, et al), you can introduce whatever policy you want, and still retain popular support. Governance is "waaaaaay Easier(tm)".
The COVID-19 situation is an Objectively-Real problem that cannot be ignored out of existence, and intrudes into the HyperNormalized Reality perniciously. Trump wants to try to mitigate that intrusion, through under-representing it, and then spinning it in the media. This is why his rhetoric about "Double edgedness" concerning testing can be seen as cogent. (To people that want to deal with the objectively-real, his statement is absurd. There is no beneficial side to inaccurate test data, it is beyond useless for any objectively real application. In the HyperNormalized world, however, inaccurate test data allows you to keep economies open, and to marginalize the deathrates through failure to report about them in the public consciousness, and continue with status-quo operations, which is "Very beneficial". (ahem. If you don't mind murdering potentially millions of people in the second degree to accomplish it.) )
Trump is VERY CLEARLY operating in the HyperNormalized world.
Post by: Starver on June 24, 2020, 06:26:48 pm
I was going to use the official initialisms for them all, but my confidence went when I wasn't terribly sure about Conneticut.
Interesting to see certain tables turn (I think the US is already absent from the list of countries the EU likes people to arrive from). Some voices from the earlier times (when the threat was reversed) will doubtless be unusually quiet.
Post by: TamerVirus on June 24, 2020, 06:40:18 pm
Florida and Texas are about to have a really rough couple of days ahead
Post by: Frumple on June 24, 2020, 06:49:24 pm
Post by: McTraveller on June 24, 2020, 07:23:23 pm
Who knows if we'll even be able to travel there now (or if we can travel, will we be allowed to return home)?
My state (MI) also has registered the highest new cases count in 23 days. I'm not sure yet if this is the first evidence of the relaxation of social distancing a week ago, a reflection of more testing, or both.
Post by: Zangi on June 24, 2020, 08:20:19 pm
Murrica is gonna keep circulating plague between red states and blue states in perpetuity now.
Edit: well more accurately half of Murrica will start to spread the plague when the other half starts to relax.
Such is the price we shall pay for lack of leadership.
Post by: Frumple on June 24, 2020, 09:15:33 pm
Assuming the folks at the top don't manage to somehow fuck up production and distribution, which isn't nearly as reliable a bet as it should be :-\
Post by: Ziusudra on June 24, 2020, 10:01:07 pm
I mean, for a year or two, until a vaccine shows up. Then it'll mostly be confined to anti-vax holdouts.And that it doesn't mutate enough to evade the vaccine.
Assuming the folks at the top don't manage to somehow fuck up production and distribution, which isn't nearly as reliable a bet as it should be :-\
Post by: martinuzz on June 25, 2020, 02:34:07 am
I mean, after 50+ years of trying, there's still no vaccin against HIV.. Or against the common cold corona virusses (and that has been tried albeit not very extensively).
Assuming there will be a vaccin in 1-2 years is very much wishful thinking.
Post by: Starver on June 25, 2020, 05:06:29 am
That said, even a rather more well-behaved family such as the coronaviruses (by all accounts easier to deal with than the seasonal flu brand) is likely to not roll over to be tickled on the tummy quite so readily. Our main hope is the accelerated ingenuity of our more sophisticated biotech researchers, turbo-charged by the shock of the amazingly sudden appearance of need (arguably more substance and less hype[1]) will give us something better than lifetime reliance upon social caution and (for those that succumb) hope that theraputic medication grants them sufficient recovery to live 'normally' for the rest of their allotted three-score years and ten(s).
It is a different kind of time than 1919, but we've reached the same level of abilities over longer time (because without the 'Spanish' Flu, we may not have had the same kick-start to what we now have) and yet are always a step or three behind influenza's particular dance of death. (If we're lucky, COVID does prefer just to jostle around its handbag rather than tango all across the dancefloor. Watch this space?)
[1] Not to downplay AIDS, but breathing while shopping is something almost everyone does(/did). And is harder to suggest/legislate that you avoid than in the case of promiscuous sex and/or injecting chemical stimulants. That then make less illicit side-vectors more dangerous. And merely being in a ward for a hip-op or other casual ailment is another level more insidious for more 'normal' people than requiring blood-products that end up having been incautiously sourced and process.
Post by: Frumple on June 25, 2020, 06:23:25 am
While I really do hope that a vaccin will be found, I do worry about policy makers taking it for granted that one will be found.It's what most seriousface virusfolk I've seen talking are suggesting. There's already tentative shit in existence, it just needs testing to make sure it's not a "worse than the disease" deal, from what I understand.
I mean, after 50+ years of trying, there's still no vaccin against HIV.. Or against the common cold corona virusses (and that has been tried albeit not very extensively).
Assuming there will be a vaccin in 1-2 years is very much wishful thinking.
Also, we have vaccines for corona viruses, just not for humans (due largely to how fucked up the incentives are for private medical research, rather than anything on the actual development side of things), and the reasons for the disparity just don't exist with the crow plague. HIV also just... isn't the same sort of thing as the virus powering the plague, at the moment. More stable, less strains flapping around, less like, blatant fucking sabotage and crap involved in the earlier periods of study. Different sort of virus, different challenges.
I don't think believing the timeline of folks in the field that aren't spouting wildly optimistic "6 months, seriously!" horseshit is wishful thinking, y'know?
Post by: kaijyuu on June 25, 2020, 10:41:25 am
The flu is a crazy and bizarre virus that frequently mutates due to having like 5 different rna strands that can be interchanged. That's why we have to have seasonal vaccines. So, also not analogous.
The hard part about coronavirus is that it attacks external tissue, like the lining of the esophagus and lungs. You don't have much blood flow there, so not much room for immune response. This partially explains the seemingly severe immune response, and shows that a vaccine done improperly could just make things worse (stronger response = more chance for pneumonia and other things from overproduction of mucus, inflammation, etc).
It's a fairly typical virus beyond that so I don't see it mutating to the point where we'd need a new vaccine every year or something. We'll likely be able to heavily stop its spread if not outright eliminate it eventually, provided nutsos like anti-vaccers don't get in the way. It'll just take some time... and hope that it doesn't spread more than it needs to in that time, despite what certain politicians would seemingly prefer.
Post by: misko27 on June 25, 2020, 01:37:16 pm
It's a fairly typical virus beyond that so I don't see it mutating to the point where we'd need a new vaccine every year or something. We'll likely be able to heavily stop its spread if not outright eliminate it eventually, provided nutsos like anti-vaccers don't get in the way. It'll just take some time... and hope that it doesn't spread more than it needs to in that time, despite what certain politicians would seemingly prefer.I would like to, ah, add on to this here. We actually do know how quickly SARS-CoV-2 mutates, one of those few things we're quite certain of. It's got a stable mutation rate which is slow and steady, with even some of the newest strains showing quite relatively little divergence from the original strain. It does mutate, but fairly predictably.
Also, the virus continues to positively explode in some US states, with California posting a record of 7000 cases just a day after posting a record 5,000 cases. The US overall is up 47% from two-weeks ago in cases-per-day.
Spoiler: And the graphs for some individual states can be a little terrifying. (click to show/hide)
Post by: Max™ on June 25, 2020, 01:39:34 pm
Said rhinoviruses keep returning because the antibodies fade over time and the initial infections aren't general severe enough to trigger a more aggressive and longer lasting response in the first place, so getting a cold sucks, but trying to hit the various different moving targets each year as the different remnant caches in each population take turns spreading and retreating for a few days of sneezing and bleary feeling with a mild coof coof just doesn't end up seeming worth it.
Sometimes with a flu strain, even as a young non-smoker you really feel that while you probably won't die... it might be a nice break from this goddamn wracking cough and being too sore to do anything but rest but you're too achy to actually fall asleep between coughing fits. Next time somebody says "it's just like the flu" they should be popped in the nose good and hard, the flu sucks you stupid cunts. I'll take it over an abscessed molar or sinus infection--both of which are tied at the 10 spot on my pain scale, nut kicks have slid to like a 5 or 6 now, and rasping a knuckle is a solid 3 or 4, while my worst flu has been around a 3 or 4 steady with coughing spikes to a 5--at least with the flu I've never noticed losing stretches of time due to pain so overwhelming all I can remember is a hateful white emptiness of agony with no real recollection of how long it lasted, just memories of realizing I was screaming without knowing why.
So sure, the flu isn't as bad as that but I'd be cool with never catching it again, and the idea of getting another deep fucking lungache infection sounds around as fun as getting shot.
Sure, COVID-19 can apparently be a mild "was that it, really?" like a more coughy-than-usual-cold, it can also end up kicking your ass like the flu on steroids, and that's if you don't get the massive cytokine storm shit where your body just zerg rushes itself trying to fight off the virus and drowning in your own lungs becomes a serious fucking risk.
Let's not forget the people who started out with a fairly severe-but-not-fatal gamut of symptoms, start thinking they're coming back out of it, and then kinda wobble back and forth between "walking to the bathroom left me wanting to fall over and die once I stop coughing" and "fever is almost gone and lungs barely hurt... maybe it's almost over" for weeks or more apparently.
Thankfully those aren't a super common outcome (if you can call lingering in sickness limbo for who the fuck knows how long an outcome) but it's yet another thing to remember is on the chart of outcomes if you roll those dice.
Post by: Frumple on June 25, 2020, 01:50:57 pm
3-4 with spikes of 5 is indeed pretty solid estimate for flu, tho'. Shit sucks.
Post by: wierd on June 25, 2020, 02:35:22 pm
It's a fairly typical virus beyond that so I don't see it mutating to the point where we'd need a new vaccine every year or something. We'll likely be able to heavily stop its spread if not outright eliminate it eventually, provided nutsos like anti-vaccers don't get in the way. It'll just take some time... and hope that it doesn't spread more than it needs to in that time, despite what certain politicians would seemingly prefer.I would like to, ah, add on to this here. We actually do know how quickly SARS-CoV-2 mutates, one of those few things we're quite certain of. It's got a stable mutation rate which is slow and steady, with even some of the newest strains showing quite relatively little divergence from the original strain. It does mutate, but fairly predictably.
Also, the virus continues to positively explode in some US states, with California posting a record of 7000 cases just a day after posting a record 5,000 cases. The US overall is up 47% from two-weeks ago in cases-per-day.Spoiler: And the graphs for some individual states can be a little terrifying. (click to show/hide)
[almost British levels of dry contempt]
And this was completely unexpected. Nobody could have predicted this outcome.
[/dry contempt]
[ordinary sarcasm]
Opening the economy (and beaches) back up before global public health experts recommended was just doing what their constituents(*) were insisting they do, and the data(+) they had seemed to suggest it would be A-OK(#).
[/sarcasm]
(*) Noam Chomsky is famous for his literature about engineered consent. (Stop here. Go absorb the subject. Come back.) It has not really ever been on such "in-your-face" display as in the past 4 years of the Trump administration though, especially recently. The major constituency that was demanding reopening was the financial and retail sectors, but those groups were cozy with the Trump campaign, and that group's PAC was hard at work engineering consent to convince the public to "Be Like Sweden!" and the like, boosting the volume of people who wanted to return to work despite the risks, wanted to go back out and socialize, despite the risks, etc-- all in direct contravention of basically every public health professional on the god-damned planet. Because "The MONIESS!!! THE MONIES!!" By boosting the volume on those public voices, they created a "convenient" false-majority-opinion that they could then point to, to dislodge blame from themselves and their political allies for this move, which there is no question they *WERE* strongly advised not to undertake, but which they did anyway, callously, and with purpose and contempt for human life.
(+) See Trump's recent faux-pas about testing "Going too fast!", etc. The poor quality of the data has been purposefully assured, the data itself that was collected has been purposefully tampered with, and it is being cherry picked in the worst possible ways to attempt to justify the wishes of the financial and retail sector constituency to reopen the economy, and damn the public health consequences.
(#) Because they have basically thrown actual rigor out the goddamn window, they can reach whatever pre-conceived conclusion they want.
Post by: Max™ on June 25, 2020, 05:45:58 pm
Eh, sinus infection/headache is a solid nine (they've knocked me unconscious before), but I still haven't encountered something that meets the hard 10 of a kidney stone. Those are wild, hallucinations and vomiting, debilitating please-just-fucking-kill-me, hurts too bad to pass out, pain tier. Would not recommend.I was definitely hallucinating from the sinus shit btw, you know the effect when you push on an LCD screen and all the colors kinda rainbow gradient around where your fingers are? Kept getting that shit flickering in from the edges of my vision before it would kinda pulse like black and white spiky stripe shit.
3-4 with spikes of 5 is indeed pretty solid estimate for flu, tho'. Shit sucks.
You know those little pencil topper things? I hacked something that looked like one of those up (https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.explicit.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.NKVgD5nuQ6LQi1s8-d03FQHaHa%26pid%3DApi&f=1) except like neon green and kinda bloody after I felt everything start to drain and the fucking relief from the goddamn spike of hatred between my eyes was nearly orgasmic. Like I stuck a c-clamp so it was pushing on the back of my head and right between my eyes and just kept turning the handle before randomly smacking the clamp with a hammer for fun.
Not sure if it was a couple of days or a month but up until my abscessed tooth it was far and away the worst shit I've ever felt, though I do know the abscess took over a week before I could even get anything for it, and still took a couple days before the meds finally got that shit back under control, though I assumed I had been dealing with it for like a month or two because outside of the empty spots where I lost time I was aware of every goddamn second. Felt like there was a golf ball stuck to the roof of my mouth and I just kinda wound up laying there in bed with the lights off writhing and groaning between apparently roaring and screaming occasionally. I remember a few times where I noticed I was doing it and stopped, but never actually starting to make any noise but groaning. I couldn't turn the lights on because they were screaming back at me, so while I was aware of a kind of pulsation in my vision I think I only opened my eyes for a few minutes on any particular day while it was going on.
Still had it in me to crack a joke though, missus checked on me after doing some laundry or something and I'm like "well, could really use a bj" but then I laughed and that hurt.
No kidney stones yet though I can't imagine they're any fun.
Post by: martinuzz on June 25, 2020, 06:59:03 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 25, 2020, 07:00:10 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 25, 2020, 07:05:08 pm
So yeah, expect 3 months or more of lockdown being nescessary in Texas.
Post by: Frumple on June 25, 2020, 07:07:59 pm
I was definitely hallucinating from the sinus shit btw, you know the effect when you push on an LCD screen and all the colors kinda rainbow gradient around where your fingers are? Kept getting that shit flickering in from the edges of my vision before it would kinda pulse like black and white spiky stripe shit.I've had visual snow as long as I've had consciousness I can remember. I don't know what having the default state of my entire field of vision onset is like :P
Quote
No kidney stones yet though I can't imagine they're any fun.Yeah, I've had all of one and hope to never have one again. They're consistently rated up there with sinus headaches and whatnot on pain scales, though. Having experienced both, I'd give the edge to the stone.
Post by: Bumber on June 25, 2020, 07:15:38 pm
Also, the virus continues to positively explode in some US states, with California posting a record of 7000 cases just a day after posting a record 5,000 cases. The US overall is up 47% from two-weeks ago in cases-per-day.Spoiler: And the graphs for some individual states can be a little terrifying. (click to show/hide)
Those charts don't account for increases in testing.
In California, for example, percent positive tests has only gone up a little bit: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/california
Post by: Doomblade187 on June 25, 2020, 07:20:09 pm
Post by: Bumber on June 25, 2020, 07:23:44 pm
Well, yeah, but Texas, Georgia, Florida, and friends are still doing trash.
Not so much Georgia: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/georgia
Post by: Doomblade187 on June 25, 2020, 10:37:59 pm
As a Georgia resident, I've been checking the state dashboard, but this one doesn't paint too great a picture either. Percentage positive is about the same, but tests are lower than our wave one spike.Well, yeah, but Texas, Georgia, Florida, and friends are still doing trash.
Not so much Georgia: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/georgia
Post by: Frumple on June 26, 2020, 12:42:12 am
I mean, conceptually it's weird, but practically it took nearly two decades before I even realized it wasn't what absolutely everyone else was seeing, and years after that it's still my normal, not some oddity. Mostly it's just kinda' pretty and occasionally distracting, on top of little things like being a constant reminder of the lie that is stillness and the reality that all is motion, or the subjectivity of perception. Nothing ever sitting entirely still due to a persistent colorful hallucination can do that :PI've had visual snow as long as I've had consciousness I can remember. I don't know what having the default state of my entire field of vision onset is like :PMan, weird, innit? TV static all the time, usually goes with a bit of tinnitus, both correlate with migraines. Wikipedia says that floaters and negative afterimages in vision go with the visual snow, too. Not sure if my eyes are a mess or my brain is, heh.
Though yeah, I get the floaters and the afterimages and the blue sky sprites, too. The latter in particular can actually give me headaches, blue cloudless skies are a fucking skittery mess of junk, notable sensory overload.
The snow's about as confirmed as the limited research into it gets to be neurological, though. Brain's screwed up somehow on that front. Your eyes may or may not be screwed up, too, but there's nothing really involved in the eye itself that can account for it. There's even less research into, like, congenital snow than there is onset, though, the latter of which is pretty strongly correlated with a fair amount of nasty stuff (also people tend to freak out a little when they're suddenly hallucinating more or less constantly :V). Onset tends to be caused by/accompany pretty serious traumas, from what I understand.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 26, 2020, 02:32:42 am
I mean, I'unno on the plague response vis a vis the US population. On the one hand, this mammon humping lemming horseshit a lot of people are doing isn't, like. Great. On the other there's still folks floating around only like a generation off from the last major U.S. (Non-seasonal flu) plague, so, like. Grandparents and stuff had parents that dealt with the same sort of shit, and some of it passed down, so you see compliance and whatnot from odd sectors. Definitely a lot more people are going to die (and suffer badly, and go bankrupt) than is necessary, but it might not be as bad as some of the nutjob mess would have you think. There's a lot of insanity getting signal boosted while many people are more quietly just not doing stupid shit.Same here with visual snow. I assumed it was normal until I read a random wikipedia article on the subjectI mean, conceptually it's weird, but practically it took nearly two decades before I even realized it wasn't what absolutely everyone else was seeing, and years after that it's still my normal, not some oddity. Mostly it's just kinda' pretty and occasionally distracting, on top of little things like being a constant reminder of the lie that is stillness and the reality that all is motion, or the subjectivity of perception. Nothing ever sitting entirely still due to a persistent colorful hallucination can do that :PI've had visual snow as long as I've had consciousness I can remember. I don't know what having the default state of my entire field of vision onset is like :PMan, weird, innit? TV static all the time, usually goes with a bit of tinnitus, both correlate with migraines. Wikipedia says that floaters and negative afterimages in vision go with the visual snow, too. Not sure if my eyes are a mess or my brain is, heh.
Though yeah, I get the floaters and the afterimages and the blue sky sprites, too. The latter in particular can actually give me headaches, blue cloudless skies are a fucking skittery mess of junk, notable sensory overload.
The snow's about as confirmed as the limited research into it gets to be neurological, though. Brain's screwed up somehow on that front. Your eyes may or may not be screwed up, too, but there's nothing really involved in the eye itself that can account for it. There's even less research into, like, congenital snow than there is onset, though, the latter of which is pretty strongly correlated with a fair amount of nasty stuff (also people tend to freak out a little when they're suddenly hallucinating more or less constantly :V). Onset tends to be caused by/accompany pretty serious traumas, from what I understand.
Post by: wierd on June 26, 2020, 02:35:45 am
Halos/Auras (sharp areas of alternating contrast, or geometric patterns that seem to writhe and wiggle that are purely hallucinations near the edges of perceived objects) especially are typically associated with neurological conditions of the visual cortex, and can be symptoms of a preceding seizure.
I am just some damn butt wiping grunt; How did you not know Poo?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 26, 2020, 03:04:11 am
My baseline assumption was that everyone saw like that, that just like a screen can look "dotted" by pixels if you look closely, maybe the same happened with the eye and photoreceptors.
Post by: scriver on June 26, 2020, 03:19:09 am
I mean, I'unno on the plague response vis a vis the US population. On the one hand, this mammon humping lemming horseshit a lot of people are doing isn't, like. Great. On the other there's still folks floating around only like a generation off from the last major U.S. (Non-seasonal flu) plague, so, like. Grandparents and stuff had parents that dealt with the same sort of shit, and some of it passed down, so you see compliance and whatnot from odd sectors. Definitely a lot more people are going to die (and suffer badly, and go bankrupt) than is necessary, but it might not be as bad as some of the nutjob mess would have you think. There's a lot of insanity getting signal boosted while many people are more quietly just not doing stupid shit.Same here with visual snow. I assumed it was normal until I read a random wikipedia article on the subjectI mean, conceptually it's weird, but practically it took nearly two decades before I even realized it wasn't what absolutely everyone else was seeing, and years after that it's still my normal, not some oddity. Mostly it's just kinda' pretty and occasionally distracting, on top of little things like being a constant reminder of the lie that is stillness and the reality that all is motion, or the subjectivity of perception. Nothing ever sitting entirely still due to a persistent colorful hallucination can do that :PI've had visual snow as long as I've had consciousness I can remember. I don't know what having the default state of my entire field of vision onset is like :PMan, weird, innit? TV static all the time, usually goes with a bit of tinnitus, both correlate with migraines. Wikipedia says that floaters and negative afterimages in vision go with the visual snow, too. Not sure if my eyes are a mess or my brain is, heh.
Though yeah, I get the floaters and the afterimages and the blue sky sprites, too. The latter in particular can actually give me headaches, blue cloudless skies are a fucking skittery mess of junk, notable sensory overload.
The snow's about as confirmed as the limited research into it gets to be neurological, though. Brain's screwed up somehow on that front. Your eyes may or may not be screwed up, too, but there's nothing really involved in the eye itself that can account for it. There's even less research into, like, congenital snow than there is onset, though, the latter of which is pretty strongly correlated with a fair amount of nasty stuff (also people tend to freak out a little when they're suddenly hallucinating more or less constantly :V). Onset tends to be caused by/accompany pretty serious traumas, from what I understand.
It's not normal?
Post by: wierd on June 26, 2020, 03:28:16 am
Your retina actually DOES do a significant amount of per-processing before shipping a signal to your visual cortex (via the thalamus). Specifically, it does temporal smoothing, and relies on the subtle movements of your head, as it responds to your blood pressure changing from your heartbeat, and without this continual movement of the eye, it actually becomes blind. The retina is constantly measuring DIFFERENCES, and generating a signal based on those, which it sends to the brain.
You can test this yourself (https://gizmodo.com/how-to-temporarily-blind-yourself-5911404) with some simple illustrations and a headrest. :P (in addition to a wide assortment of interesting optical pre-processing artifacts you can test yourself for. The retina does a LOT of heavy lifting. It is not just some dumb nerve signal aggregator.)
It is possible that your issue is one with your retina, and not in your brain. But, I would have a proper neurologist explore that, if it is a cause of concern for you.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 26, 2020, 03:36:09 am
The reason for the glasses mentioned elsewhere is a mild astigmatism. Which I didnt know I had either but its a bigger problem. I can see without glasses but I squint nonstop and get headches
Post by: wierd on June 26, 2020, 03:46:32 am
Trust me, I see the whole "refracted double image" shit, WITH A SINGLE EYE. :P
If it were not for "US Healthcare is unholy expensive for elective procedures" bullshit, I would have gone in for corrective surgery ages ago.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 26, 2020, 04:23:56 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 26, 2020, 04:45:59 am
I know when I have the right strenght glasses when I can read license plates at over 100m distance again.
Post by: Max™ on June 26, 2020, 04:57:06 am
Acid never made the really indelible sort of images I got from pain though: black and white pulsing shapes like a + sign viewed through a fish-eye lens up close, tall as everything, wide as anything, sometimes they'd have a greenish kinda tinge where the rainbowed edge blur got close to the really sharp boundaries of the + signs.
Post by: Akura on June 26, 2020, 05:02:11 am
*shrug* visual snow is not something that shows up in textbooks. And in my case its not that severe a distortion, more as if I had a layer of TV static blended into my usual sight.
My baseline assumption was that everyone saw like that, that just like a screen can look "dotted" by pixels if you look closely, maybe the same happened with the eye and photoreceptors.
I've had something like this for as long as I can remember. Never bothered me, though, and most of the time I don't even notice it.
Post by: scriver on June 26, 2020, 05:03:29 am
Visual snow? No. I found it on a random article like I said. "Huh, so this is not normal?"
Then I want it GONE from my eyes! Operate me, doctor!
Post by: Frumple on June 26, 2020, 07:06:10 am
Post by: Frumple on June 26, 2020, 07:13:53 am
It is possible that your issue is one with your retina, and not in your brain. But, I would have a proper neurologist explore that, if it is a cause of concern for you.Yeh, from what I recall folks have straight up gone blind/lost their eyes outright but not lost the snow effect. To the extent we're sure about anything involving visual snow (not super much, to be fair -- just to repeat there's very little on the subject and I've had actual optometrists go "what?" when I've asked them about the issue), it's that at minimum some/most of incidences of it is due to something involving the brain rather than the structure of the eye itself.
Post by: Starver on June 26, 2020, 10:42:30 am
I have pronounced astigmatism--ASS-TIG-MA-TIZZUM
And now, so have I.
(Seriously, though, I need glasses, but only for focal reasons.)
Visually, I have no idea if what I see is what you are seeing. Visual artefacts are, so far as I can tell, an inbuilt result of the processing.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Dostoevsky on June 26, 2020, 02:50:15 pm
Quote
“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.
In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness and loss of taste or smell to seizures and confusion.
. . . .
Studies are just getting underway to understand the long-term effects of infection, Jay Butler, deputy director of infectious diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters in a telephone briefing on Thursday.
“We hear anecdotal reports of people who have persistent fatigue, shortness of breath,” Butler said. “How long that will last is hard to say.”
While coronavirus symptoms typically resolve in two or three weeks, an estimated 1 in 10 experience prolonged symptoms, Dr. Helen Salisbury of the University of Oxford wrote in the British Medical Journal on Tuesday.
. . . .
Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious diseases at Northwestern Medicine, reviewed current scientific literature and found about half of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had neurological complications, such as dizziness, decreased alertness, difficulty concentrating, disorders of smell and taste, seizures, strokes, weakness and muscle pain.
So still a topic for further research, but certainly concerning.
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 27, 2020, 09:55:20 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Quote
So far, the US has recorded about 125,000 coronavirus deaths - the highest death toll in the world.Loadsa unnecessary death
But one forecasting model run by experts at the University of Washington, says the US is on course to hit 180,000 by October - a month before the election.
Post by: martinuzz on June 27, 2020, 10:53:53 am
I really hope that he is held accountable once his presidency is over and rots in some jail for the remainder of his miserable life.
Post by: TD1 on June 27, 2020, 11:21:56 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 27, 2020, 11:26:45 am
Post by: Starver on June 27, 2020, 11:39:05 am
Though I suspect the core data will be warped (by deliberate interference from above, for reasons mostly unrelated to what I'm looking for), so this is just me pondering aloud. Certainly much too early to tell what BF (Before Floyd) and AF eras might look like, at this time.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 27, 2020, 12:55:58 pm
Quote
Noting that BAME individuals already seem to be more susceptible to this thing
I think its bullshit. I think they're more exposed (by default) and have less economic means to stay isolated
The very term "BAME" is bullshitty. Black, Asian, Middle Eastern? Might as well say non-white migrant as there is little more in-common. And it's a bit odd given that you don't see this increased lethality in Asia, or non-overwhelmed ME nations no?
We're getting a lot of shitty contradictory theories like when the pandemic in Europe became far worse than in Asia and some folks started to speculate that maybe haplotype Rb1 was a risk factor for covid19 complications. Nevermind that going by this theory Basques and Irish should be extinct by now, this should make BAMEs *less* at risk.
Post by: Doomblade187 on June 27, 2020, 12:59:55 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 27, 2020, 01:14:37 pm
The disparity in racial death rates is largely due to racial infection rates. And *that* is because minorities disproportionately work in "essential" jobs, often with less healthcare and protections available.
This is what I think. By virtue of what the BAME term entails, are more likely to be migrant workers, have less money, work in lower rungs, and depend on a visa. Thus its also more likely they cannot afford to stay at home.
Post by: scriver on June 27, 2020, 03:20:56 pm
The disparity in racial death rates is largely due to racial infection rates. And *that* is because minorities disproportionately work in "essential" jobs, often with less healthcare and protections available.
This is what I think. By virtue of what the BAME term entails, are more likely to be migrant workers, have less money, work in lower rungs, and depend on a visa. Thus its also more likely they cannot afford to stay at home.
Also more likely to live intergenerationally, and if they're migrants more likely to prefer media from their birth countries/in their own language over that of their new home country.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 27, 2020, 03:25:31 pm
Yes but I think we've established that covid19 most likely doesn't transmit through electromagnetic waves :Pif they're migrants more likely to prefer media from their birth countries/in their own language over that of their new home country.The disparity in racial death rates is largely due to racial infection rates. And *that* is because minorities disproportionately work in "essential" jobs, often with less healthcare and protections available.
This is what I think. By virtue of what the BAME term entails, are more likely to be migrant workers, have less money, work in lower rungs, and depend on a visa. Thus its also more likely they cannot afford to stay at home.
Post by: scriver on June 27, 2020, 03:37:10 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 27, 2020, 04:06:10 pm
The main thing is that the theory that was being sounded around a couple of months ago that BAMEs were dying more of coronavirus because of genetics was dubious to begin with. Not least because BAME is not even a real ethnic category, but a hotchpot label.
Edit: 2020: the year that keeps on giving.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nuclear-particles-baltic/sensors-detect-rise-in-nuclear-particles-on-baltic-sea-global-body-says-idUSKBN23X2TN
https://youtu.be/Mg5HOnq7zD0
Post by: Starver on June 27, 2020, 04:10:49 pm
I've heard critique of that thought, with it being left far from statistically proven. Will dig it up again before I rely on vague memory, though.QuoteNoting that BAME individuals already seem to be more susceptible to this thing
I think its bullshit. I think they're more exposed (by default) and have less economic means to stay isolated
Quote
The very term "BAME" is bullshitty. Black, Asian, Middle Eastern?"and (other) Minority Ethnic(ity)", is how I've heard it. And wouldn't swear it isn't "Black African" as the single group, at least by some misuses of it.
I actually feel uncomfortable with it pronounced "Baym", compared with "Bee Ay Em Ee", and it's not my place to coin the term, but it seems to be the 'in' term here in the UK (we seem more comfortable, mutually 'us' and the Black people themselves, with "Black" than the US. "African American" usually would be a misnomer for the equivalent people here who have never been in America; or even The Americas) used extensively by both "BAMEs" themselves and those who would respectfully (mostly) wish to refer to 'non-whites' in acceptible terms.
Also be aware that "Asian" in the UK refers more to the Indian Subcontinent than the Orient (sorry, another transatlantic issue I didn't consider). I think we're likely to consider the far-Far East peoples "Chinese" (or less nice versions) unless you know they're otherwise. Though even those who really shouldn't, get it wrong every-which-way... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45004765)
So I apologise for my ill-defined words, following the 'fashionable' term.
Post by: Max™ on June 27, 2020, 05:54:34 pm
Will you blame the inevitable future deaths on BLM?Except the protests seemed to have had a neutral effect if anything, less people went out unless protesting, protestors wore masks and were outside. I mean we still have a couple more weeks before we'd start getting any death spikes from the protests but without case spikes first that seems unlikely.
The death counts don't say what happened today, they say what happened a month ago when those people generally got infected, or two weeks ago when they were in the hospital, or a week ago when they died before getting added to the reports.
The sun belt outbreak is alarming as fuck because several of those areas are showing faster rises than fucking NYC did, and NYC was a virus playground with all those people packed in such close proximity with such a huge chunk of usable space being indoors.
Other than the south/southwest totally ignoring the pandemic and either never closing or recently lifting their too lenient restrictions so everybody went "WOO, IT'S OVER, TIME TO HIT THE BARS AND COUGH ON EACH OTHER!" a few weeks ago.
Post by: wierd on June 28, 2020, 01:17:39 am
Other places, that have basically stayed on lockdown the whole time, are doing much better on their numbers. WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED!? /s
Post by: scriver on June 28, 2020, 02:41:11 am
Post by: Kagus on June 28, 2020, 04:17:47 am
What about Black, Latino, Asian, and other Minority Ethnicity?
It's perfect!
Post by: martinuzz on June 28, 2020, 04:55:25 am
Wish people could stop labelling everything and making up new retarded abbreviations
Post by: Kagus on June 28, 2020, 04:57:15 am
It's yet another perfectly disgusting way to group people into we vs them.But if we don't do that, how will we know who to BLAME?
Wish people could stop labelling everything and making up new retarded abbreviations
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on June 28, 2020, 07:56:55 am
Blame for what? No one intended for the virus to be as widespread as it is. Ethnicity is not a determinant in whether a human follows lockdown procedures.It's yet another perfectly disgusting way to group people into we vs them.But if we don't do that, how will we know who to BLAME?
Wish people could stop labelling everything and making up new retarded abbreviations
Post by: wierd on June 28, 2020, 08:02:16 am
Blame for what? No one intended for the virus to be as widespread as it is. Ethnicity is not a determinant in whether a human follows lockdown procedures.It's yet another perfectly disgusting way to group people into we vs them.But if we don't do that, how will we know who to BLAME?
Wish people could stop labelling everything and making up new retarded abbreviations
Joke seen flying over multiple heads. News crews report that spectators were confused by what just happened. A leading analyst explains:
What about Black, Latino, Asian, and other Minority Ethnicity?
It's perfect!
Black
Latino
Asian
(and)
Minor
Ethnicity
+
--------------
B L A M E
Given that the entire purpose of the moniker is to cast aspersions, doubts, and blame on that demographic (so as to avoid having to contend with reality that would otherwise force changes in a person's actions and behavior, in a selfish bid to not change at all), changling the moniker thusly--- Is as stated, "PERFECT."
Post by: Robsoie on June 28, 2020, 08:08:24 am
Anyways back to covid outbreak worldwide, considering how many morons seem to not understand why they should put a mask when going into crowded areas, maybe adapting the explanation is in order so even they can understand , and it looks like someone found how to explain :
(https://i.imgur.com/3KaUwOC.jpg)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 28, 2020, 08:50:08 am
Post by: ZBridges on June 28, 2020, 04:32:26 pm
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html)
Post by: McTraveller on June 28, 2020, 04:58:56 pm
The more important numbers are new deaths per day and ICU usage. We will have to, unfortunately, wait about 7 more days before we see if the rumors of weakening are true, or if we will see the uptick in daily deaths; the recent increases in daily case counts started about 7 days ago so the "real" impacts are still a ways off.
Post by: ZBridges on June 28, 2020, 05:09:12 pm
Post by: Max™ on June 28, 2020, 05:38:46 pm
Post by: Starver on June 28, 2020, 05:59:14 pm
[...]it'll be interesting to later compare any rises seen [...]
[...] Certainly much too early to tell what BF (Before Floyd) and AF eras might look like, at this time.
(It is irrelevent what causes some sections of society to be more susceptible. It is irrelevent what terms we use to describe such sections, and nobody seemed to have problems with my Redneck reference. And I was always happier with that too, TBH.)
Retrospective analysis, a month or two further down the line is going to be a better indication of "what is happening today" than any measure, even figures for discovered cases. Still, we have to make do with what we have.
Post by: thompson on June 28, 2020, 07:02:10 pm
Eh, new cases is a sensational but not terribly helpful statistic. You need more information - what is the positive rate? Is this serological, PCR, or diagnostic? Is this new "active" cases or is this "probably had it two months ago and was never/mildly symptomatic"?
The more important numbers are new deaths per day and ICU usage. We will have to, unfortunately, wait about 7 more days before we see if the rumors of weakening are true, or if we will see the uptick in daily deaths; the recent increases in daily case counts started about 7 days ago so the "real" impacts are still a ways off.
Plot cases in Florida, California, or Texas vs time. Looks like a nice exponential curve to me. Pretty fucking steep too. It conforms to everything we know about viral transmission, so “fresh outbreaks within specific geographic areas” will be the mental model I go with until better data becomes available.
Post by: Bumber on June 28, 2020, 07:22:51 pm
Plot cases in Florida, California, or Texas vs time. Looks like a nice exponential curve to me. Pretty fucking steep too. It conforms to everything we know about viral transmission, so “fresh outbreaks within specific geographic areas” will be the mental model I go with until better data becomes available.
As I pointed out a few pages ago, you have to account for increases in testing. California's been stable in percent positive tests for around 3 months (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/california), staying around 5%.
Texas is trending upwards (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas), increasing from 7% to 14% over the last two weeks. Florida's had a huge spike (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida), going from 5% to 15%.
Post by: hector13 on June 28, 2020, 08:55:56 pm
Hopefully this is a blip, and things continue either a downward trend or just steady out a bit.
Post by: thompson on June 28, 2020, 10:04:36 pm
As I pointed out a few pages ago, you have to account for increases in testing. California's been stable in percent positive tests for around 3 months (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/california), staying around 5%.
Texas is trending upwards (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/texas), increasing from 7% to 14% over the last two weeks. Florida's had a huge spike (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida), going from 5% to 15%.
California’s curve has been sloping upward fairly gently, so not surprised it could be due to testing. Thanks for that. There could also be a confounding effect there where more people getting the virus lead to more contact tracing bringing in negative results, which would deflate the positive rate despite a real increase in infections. We’d also need more data on California’s testing regime to come to any form conclusions there. The curve is beautifully exponential, which leads me to suspect the increase in daily cases is real, though possibly overstated.
The Texas/Florida data also makes sense given the numbers I am seeing. I should probably stress that I am a physicist by trade, so have a good deal of experience with numerical modelling, so to me at least it seems obvious that the sudden inflection point in Florida’s data and shift to rapid exponential growth could only really be explained by a large outbreak. For people who haven’t studied differential equations my current musings probably sound like numerology.
Post by: Iduno on June 28, 2020, 10:06:53 pm
Yeah, going from nearly overcrowded ICU back to normal took us about three months over here in the Netherlands, and our hospitals are better equipped than those in the US (at least those hospitals that are not built for the very wealthy patients).
So yeah, expect 3 months or more of lockdown being nescessary in Texas.
They managed 1 month last time. Wonder how long this time will last. Or the next...
They (Texas and Florida, to different degrees) still aren't testing or reporting properly, so remember that the numbers are hugely under-reported.
Post by: martinuzz on June 29, 2020, 01:23:27 am
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/coronabeleid-vs-volgt-politieke-en-geen-wetenschappelijke-lijnen~b4dd86c0f/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/coronabeleid-vs-volgt-politieke-en-geen-wetenschappelijke-lijnen~b4dd86c0f/)
You should better lockdown everything again.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on June 29, 2020, 01:25:18 am
Post by: misko27 on June 29, 2020, 01:41:18 am
Also, as bad as the rise in Florida/Texas/Cali are, the most dramatic looking exponential rise in cases is Arizona, both on total and proportionally. And they've an actually insane 23% Positive test rating last I checked, easily highest in the country, and it's even worse when you consider some of the testing sites there are massively over capacity...
Post by: martinuzz on June 29, 2020, 01:51:34 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 29, 2020, 04:38:44 am
Of course, this has come at the cost of around 10% of all nursing home residents in Spain dying :(
Post by: Starver on June 29, 2020, 05:19:59 am
That's Dutch for you haha, one of the most illogical languages in the world<English> Hold my beer!
(Everyone knows that Dutch is just English spoken with a weird word order and a very heavy cold. Though what it's written with, is anyone's guess. Cat on an already broken keyboard?)
Sort of disappointed it wasn't also Nieuw Amsterdam, though.
Post by: scriver on June 29, 2020, 02:34:58 pm
By tracking a mutation of the virus that happened in Denmark (do mutations happen? take place?) they make the claim that it must have been Danish people who spread the disease to those three countries where that mutation is common.
Post by: Starver on June 29, 2020, 02:47:44 pm
Anyway, I suggest all longships should immediately be locked down. Take away their oars, then it'll be just the superspreader vikings who are up the creek without a paddle.
Post by: hector13 on June 29, 2020, 05:55:29 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on June 29, 2020, 05:59:22 pm
Post by: wierd on June 30, 2020, 01:34:20 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 30, 2020, 07:55:13 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
>UK
>USA
>Sweden
What good is being prepared if you literally just stand by and watch
Post by: wierd on June 30, 2020, 07:58:49 am
Thus, the "REOPEN! DO IT! DO IT NAAAOOOW!! DAMN ALL THOSE PEOPLE THAT WILL DIE!" rhetoric, along with the "THEY WILL MAKE MORE ON UNEMPLOYMENT THAN BEING EMPLOYED!" hysteria.
Basically, they are so fucking paranoid that people might decide that they want livable wages, and that they WONT get another 10 million dollar bonus this year, that they are willing to sacrifice thousands of people's lives, and thousands more people's health.
At least in the US anyway.
Not sure about Sweden. Ask the Swedes.
Post by: NJW2000 on June 30, 2020, 08:36:52 am
If the bodies really start piling up while Trump is still president, I'm not sure how he'll try to save face. War with China, perhaps.
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 08:47:59 am
"Although many countries have made some progress, globally the pandemic is actually speeding up."
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 08:50:56 am
We're over 10 million now less than 8 days later.
So yeah, globally it is still speeding up. Mostly in South America, the US and Asia.
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 09:01:52 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 09:11:46 am
EDIT: June 23 to be precise, 7 days ago.
The WHO warns that, despite things looking up in European countries, on a global scale the pandemic is only getting worse.
Where it took more than 3 months for the first million people to be infected, the latest million infections occurred in only 8 days.
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 09:30:06 am
Nah the WHO already said that last week, I posted about it then, when my newspaper reported it.
EDIT: June 23 to be precise, 7 days ago.
Got a source for that?
The quote from Tedros is from Monday June 29 according to the various sources I've seen (e.g. somewhat at random https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/who-warns-coronavirus-pandemic-is-speeding-up-as-countries-ease-lockdown-rules.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/who-warns-coronavirus-pandemic-is-speeding-up-as-countries-ease-lockdown-rules.html)).
If we're talking saying 'similar' things, well for months the WHO have tried to bring perspective to the likely timescale of the epidemic (I don't know of anything special about what they said on the 23rd...). People seem to want to insist that after a week or two holed up with their favourite Belgian that it's all over.
While local circumstances vary in global terms we've still got worse to come. And while the epidemic continues to grow globally even regions which have done pretty well containing it will see persistent outbreaks as it is imported back from other areas.
Post by: wierd on June 30, 2020, 09:32:19 am
I do find myself wondering if there's any chance that the virus won't become ubiquitous in the US. In the UK, Johnson does at least have his "fuck business" motto, and will eventually respond to loud and overwhelming public demand, which as far as I can see is how we got a nationwide lockdown here in the first place. So if the funeral parlours start filling up too fast, we'll go back into lockdown, no matter what party donors or business says. The US, however... it doesn't seem like the democratic machine is really working at all. Plus a much larger proportion of the population seems to genuinely want to let the virus run its course.
If the bodies really start piling up while Trump is still president, I'm not sure how he'll try to save face. War with China, perhaps.
Nonono. You are totally not catching the situation here. Noam Chomsky's Engineered Consent is alive and well here.
Example A:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/13/protest-violence-coronavirus/
Example B:
https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2020/04/16/reopen-wisconsin-rally-planned/
Example C:
https://www.whsv.com/content/news/Second-Reopen-Virginia-rally-organized-for-Wednesday-569788411.html
Meanwhile, the VAST MAJORITY of the country says "FUCK THAT, STAY HOME."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/22/outbreak-poll-most-americans-favor-continued-lockdown/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/04/14/even-if-us-lockdown-was-lifted-today-most-americans-wouldnt-resume-life-as-normal-new-poll-finds/#6a3f1f2c7764
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/despite-scattered-protests-most-americans-support-shelter-in-place-reuters-ipsos-poll-shows-idUSKCN22336P
And yet--- VERY SHORTLY after these protests, Herr Trump goes all gung-ho on reopening.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52314866
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/timeline-governments-evolving-guidance-americans-return-work/story?id=70146555 (<--The rhetoric on this one is very telling.)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/14/coronavirus-fauci-questions-trump-timeline-reopen-american-economy/2989714001/
I would bet money that some wealthy interests started some twitter campaigns with the #ReOpen hashtag, specifically to create very prominent news headlines (that could be made extra sensational, like the ABC news one above), to sew FUD and create the illusion that most americans wanted to have the economy reopen early. (When they most certainly did not.) This would create the engineered consent for reopening early, to cover up for the clearly destructive, unwanted, and entirely short-term fiscally-motivated action.
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 09:37:14 am
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/live-who-waarschuwt-pandemie-neemt-niet-af-maar-versnelt-nog-steeds~ba747017/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/live-who-waarschuwt-pandemie-neemt-niet-af-maar-versnelt-nog-steeds~ba747017/)
I guess dutch media have a faster, more direct line to the WHO
Post by: Starver on June 30, 2020, 09:43:26 am
...a week or two holed up with their favourite Belgian...Merckx, Tintin, Poirot or Servatius of Tongeren?
Post by: wierd on June 30, 2020, 09:45:01 am
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 09:47:22 am
...a week or two holed up with their favourite Belgian...Merckx, Tintin, Poirot or Servatius of Tongeren?
Not my imbibing substance of choice. ;)
Edit: though if I had to choose... maybe a mix of Adolphe Sax and Django Reinhard
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 30, 2020, 09:51:14 am
While I must profess a distinct lack of ability to read Dutch, neither myself nor google translate see any quotes from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization there.(removed)
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-who/coronavirus-pandemic-accelerating-warns-who-head-tedros-idUSZ8N2BQ01N
https://mobile.twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1274274588218843136
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 09:52:40 am
And I think you have a script-blocker in your browser, or you would be able to see the article in my link which does mention Tedros.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 10:01:17 am
English trans:
Quote
WHO warns: pandemic will not decrease, but accelerates The fact that several countries seem to be in control of the fight against the coronavirus does not mean that the virus is almost out of the world. On a world scale, the pandemic is not yet going down, but is continuing to accelerate, warns the World Health Organization (WHO).\
Although measures against the virus are being phased out in a number of countries, WHO CEO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warns against too much optimism. "It took more than three months for the first million infections to be identified. The last million came in barely eight days, "he said. That proves that the pandemic continues to accelerate. He emphasizes that it is more than a health crisis. "The consequences will be felt for decades."
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 10:03:08 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 10:04:39 am
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 10:09:59 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 10:11:22 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 30, 2020, 10:17:32 am
Post by: feelotraveller on June 30, 2020, 10:24:52 am
Yes he said 'similar' things then, but he's been saying similar things for months. And I already made that distinction several posts ago, for those who cared to read it.
Post by: Starver on July 02, 2020, 05:04:34 am
Spoiler: Umm... (click to show/hide)
Post by: delphonso on July 02, 2020, 05:07:36 am
Post by: Zangi on July 02, 2020, 12:26:46 pm
Post by: scriver on July 02, 2020, 12:58:30 pm
Post by: Eschar on July 02, 2020, 01:09:21 pm
I mean, COVID is using a winning Plague Inc. strategy. Low death rate, high contagion rate, often mundane symptoms.
For now...
Post by: TamerVirus on July 02, 2020, 01:45:43 pm
July 4th is right around the corner....
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 02, 2020, 02:27:27 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on July 02, 2020, 02:31:00 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 02, 2020, 02:45:40 pm
Never. It's Plague Inc.
I mean, COVID is using a winning Plague Inc. strategy. Low death rate, high contagion rate, often mundane symptoms.
For now...
The US is P Inc's easy mode, where "Sick people are given hugs"
Post by: TamerVirus on July 02, 2020, 03:05:29 pm
The US is P Inc's easy mode, where "Sick people are given hugs"That was Italy in February, actually
Post by: kaijyuu on July 02, 2020, 03:45:59 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 02, 2020, 05:16:44 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on July 02, 2020, 11:16:08 pm
And the US now.
One state had (has?) college students throwing parties to see who could get infected first - got to win that pot of gold.
https://time.com/5862571/alabama-coronavirus-parties/ (https://time.com/5862571/alabama-coronavirus-parties/)
Post by: sluissa on July 02, 2020, 11:52:39 pm
Herman Cain faces the corona judgement (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html)
Quote
"Life can be a challenge. Life can seem impossible. It's never easy when there's so much on the line. But you and I can make a difference. There's a mission just for you and me....Just look inside and you will find just what you can do." - Herman Cain
Post by: Max™ on July 03, 2020, 02:51:32 am
Georgia and Arizona, not to be underestimated, are both still in the game at over 3k each, while Alabama, Tennessee, Louisiana, New York, and BOTH Carolinas are all over the 1k mark.
Keep your eye on hot new prospects Mississippi, Arkansas, Ohio, Illinois, and Pennsylvania though, as they're all eager to break into the big leagues now.
The US almost hit 60k new cases yesterday and shows no sign of letting off the gas any time soon.
We're #1, unfortunately.
Post by: Iduno on July 03, 2020, 09:10:42 am
Herman Cain faces the corona judgement (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/herman-cain-hospitalized-with-covid-19.html)
He was also bragging about how the political rally he was attending wouldn't have people wearing masks, because they aren't afraid.
Edit to add US-related Corvid news:
https://twitter.com/meyevee/status/1277836277178683392 (https://twitter.com/meyevee/status/1277836277178683392)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52406261 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52406261)
It's useless, has too many side effects, and they're going to charge 5-figures for it. Good thing we threw so much taxpayer money at the research to make sure we get the drug cheaply (the usual argument for private-public partnerships like this).
Post by: Reelya on July 04, 2020, 03:32:04 am
Average costs to develop a new drug are about $3 billion. Also, they don't know which drug is going to work, so it's not just a case of making the one winning drug, companies need to investigate many drugs, and only a few of them will come to fruition. The market costs must cover not just creating the working drug, but the costs of all the dead-end research they needed to do as well. So even if you had the full costing of the money directly spend on remdesivir, that's only a fraction of the total costs spent investigating drugs that might have been effective.
Shit costs a lot of money basically, and just throwing "but the taxpayer paid $70 million!" in is a pretty ignorant statement, especially since that wasn't even a cash payment in the first place. That $70 million is hypothetical tax the company would have owed if they did the same R&D but there were not tax breaks for R&D in place. And of course, if those tax breaks never existed they would have invested their money differently, so the government probably wouldn't have got that anyway.
Some people don't seem to understand the difference between direct subsidies and tax credits. If you actually give someone $70 million dollars then you've lost $70 million you could have used for some other purpose, but if you offer tax breaks to encourage investment, then you're not actually "down" that money, since if you don't offer the tax incentives then the investment probably never occurs in the first place. See for example the campaign against Amazon opening a HQ in New York, and the $3 billion in tax credits they'd be entitled to if they did that, then when the deal fell through, people claiming the $3 billion could be spent on other things. Well no, that's really not true. The $3 billion was hypothetical tax Amazon could have paid if they so chose to open their HQ in New York rather than somewhere else, and if the various tax credits didn't exist. It's not money the city "saved" by not having Amazon. In fact the city lost a lot more money by not going through with the deal, tax breaks or no tax breaks.
Post by: Starver on July 04, 2020, 04:40:12 am
If the percentages were reversed, it wouldn't be distinguishable from chance aberation[1], and if the trial is preventing other interventions[2] then I'm not surprised it was stopped early.
This doesn't sound the death-knell for the drug, but it's a datum-point that needs not to be forgotten for the meta-analysis if/when more favourable trial results come back from elsewhere. It's a stringent world out there (at least post-thalidomide) and if the company behind it are just trying to say "it's not as bad as you seem to assume" then I'd agree with them. If they're trying to say "it's better than it looks", then they need to have other preliminary study results in their back pocket (needing a final step or two of signing-off before publishing) to justify their words.
On the pricing issue, I'm aware(ish) of how expensive drug development (and then regulatory hurdle-jumping) can be, but that markup looks excessive. A little-used drug (but important, where it is, so can't be quietly let fallow) that has eaten up much of its patent-protection time in the run-up to full approval may have to be priced up to recoup development/etc costs before it becomes subject to Generic competitors rushing in. But with the "great white hype" of this one, its immediacy/scale of likely need and the probability that there'd be a willing rush of buy-ins to procure "pre-generic" generic-production if the owner can't serve all the demand, that pricepoint seems self-defeating. As if they're aiming at the "miracle cure" believers in the consumer market before the belief-bubble bursts. (i.e., they don't have any useful pre-preprint studies in their back pocket.)
Or there's tricksier shenanigans going on, but I don't have any reason to believe that. Much as I've spent zero time looking for history on the product[3], so some of my other speculation could also be a bit off.
[1] Which might mean they had the bad luck to see a bad roll of adverse events flipping an actually useful outcome, rather than a good roll of chance improvements in the right cohort masquerading as what they were hoping to see. But to claim this would unsupportable.
[2] Larger studies can probably allow freedom to vary, outside the core treatment/control dichotomy, but this (probably Phase II, and IIa at that, combined with the immediately life-threatening condition) would have to be constrained as you can't then eke out enough match-for-match equivalent confounding factors across the divide.
[3] I presume it's not come out of the blue, probably developed for/into another pathology and thus far closer to end-of-patent than a novel Phase I graduate would be, but I'm well out of the clinical study field, these days, and am content to not look it up, or recontact old colleagues to see if they know anything.
Post by: martinuzz on July 04, 2020, 05:26:50 am
If it turns out to be ineffective, as sad as that may be, I'll laugh out loud, because the deal has already been signed and the US will need to pay up.
If it is effective though, expect diplomatic riots and possible nationalization of Gilead Sciences, which might be owned by US investors, but the factories making the drug are in Europe.
EDIT: in other news, Donald Trump Jr's girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, who is in charge of fundraising for Trump's campaign team, has contracted corona.
The couple were to attend Trump's 4th of july celebration at mount Rus-more, but have returned home.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 04, 2020, 06:20:39 am
I was fairly disappointed given the hype that had surrounded remdemesvir. Not too surprised as it was also a fiasco with ebola, though.
Heck. Last time I checked the company was claiming it did best with mild cases. Yeah. Cool. But even assuming its true thats the segment that needs it the least
But yeah, while the attitude it belies is awful, its not a pandemic-deciding event.
Quote
If it is effective though, expect diplomatic riots and possible nationalization of Gilead Sciences, which might be owned by US investors, but the factories making the drug are in EuropeHave you got a source for that? I did some quick research and apparently they make it in Canada and bottle it in the US. That's the main reason they are able to do this. There were plans to license its manufacture to generic factories in Asia.
I do think there are behind-the-scenes talks with Gilead and that they're being leaned on by the EU. And I do think that there is a big chance not of outright nationalization, but of generic authorization by decree.
Btw: trump bought 3 months not 3 years
Post by: martinuzz on July 04, 2020, 06:49:53 am
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/amerika-koopt-voorraad-remdesivir-op-europa-staat-buitenspel~b5ff653c/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/amerika-koopt-voorraad-remdesivir-op-europa-staat-buitenspel~b5ff653c/)
In reaction to the US buying all the remdesivir, the German ministry of health said that Gilead is obliged to also sell to the EU once the medicine is allowed on the market.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 04, 2020, 06:53:19 am
Thst being said there is far less xovid in the RU than the US right now so odds wre the demand will be much higher too
Post by: martinuzz on July 04, 2020, 07:03:58 am
Sure, I would not object to the US getting more, for you are one of the heaviest hit countries in the world. But just buying it all up and going fuck you to the rest of the world.... That would warrant a joint declaration of war by the rest of the world IMO. Or at the very least, a confiscation of all means of it's production that are not in the US.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 04, 2020, 07:25:06 am
Yeah, Trump is the ur-example and the worst culprit. And I wouldnt be surprised if Gilead comes to grief if they dont amend this somehow. Despite remdemesvir's crappyness (nonwitshtanding the BMJ editorial pointing out that its so crappy that if the US wants to push an unproven treatment at 3000 usd a pop, they are welcome to it
Post by: Starver on July 04, 2020, 07:27:45 am
@martinuzz, but, but... surely America First and All Hail (or Heil?) The Mighty Dollar!
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 04, 2020, 08:01:46 am
@martinuzz, but, but... surely America First and All Hail (or Heil?) The Mighty Dollar!As a citizen of the USA, I don’t agree with the America First thing, or The Mighty Dollar. ((I am aware this is a joke but still)). Remember that there are people here who understand that we are but one country sharing the planet with other countries, and that multiple countries need to cooperate for the benefit of all. Not all Americans are blindly patriotic as shows and movies would suggest. Some of us are sensible.
Post by: kaijyuu on July 04, 2020, 08:10:54 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 04, 2020, 09:08:27 am
Toxic attitudes deserve mockery. I don't think anyone's saying all 'merricans are MAGAs, either. So... don't take it personally when it's not directed at you.ok. Sorry.
Post by: scriver on July 04, 2020, 09:11:03 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 04, 2020, 09:16:31 am
Post by: scriver on July 04, 2020, 09:18:35 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 04, 2020, 09:24:33 am
If it's not directed at them then why are they being targeted :P:P Joke understood, may I play along? Clearly the projectile (words in this case) is too broad and can hit bystanders. Like if a person were to target wasps but ends up killing flies that look like wasps on accident, along with the wasps. The flies that mimicked wasps were not the target, but got hit as well. :P End of play-along attempt. Now back to Coronavirus
It seems that Iowa is having fluctuations up and down since the major spike on the 26 of May. The trend seems to be mostly stable since then. Here’s the graph if interested. If you want, I can do this for the other states too (https://i.imgur.com/ygo2bxi.png)
I chose Iowa data since that’s the state I live in, all I did was a google search and screenshot the resulting graph. This was an attempt at getting back on topic
Post by: Eschar on July 04, 2020, 11:12:08 pm
nor The Dark Tower and many other references
Just be glad it isn't North Central Positronics.
It has not escaped my notice that this means Gilead is making medicine for COVID-*19*. Also, DT-->Man in Black-->Randall Flagg-->Captain Trips/Project Blue.
Post by: scriver on July 05, 2020, 07:17:45 am
Post by: Caz on July 05, 2020, 07:47:17 am
i want off the planet
also, bacteria
Post by: Starver on July 05, 2020, 08:06:43 am
(I suspect that if you hold your breath for a minute or three, you could induce those results. Deliberately or, as you're eagerly keeping an eye on the display, literally breathless with anticipation...)
The counter-factual of surgeons doing eight hour operations and suchlike, while masked up and probably closer fitted than John Q Public, seems to be ignored.
Post by: misko27 on July 05, 2020, 10:13:40 am
Kind of mind-boggling to see people think CO2 is lead or something, when A: CO2 will simply just kinda kill you outright if it's a problem, and B: Your body doesn't actually have a "Am I getting enough oxygen?" feedback mechanism so much as a "Is there too much carbon dioxide here for there to be oxygen to breathe?", which is associated with all the things you think of as a result of not getting air, i.e gasping, drowning, etc. Suffocation.
Hence how you can pass out and die really easily if the air is filled with something other than CO2, like Carbon Monoxide can just kinda fucking kill you without you noticing until you pass out. One imagines these people are unfamiliar.
Post by: Starver on July 05, 2020, 11:19:40 am
Of course, we can concentrate it, with our technology, and then put ourselves in the hypoxic (purely because hypernitrogenated) situation we have caused to occur. Technically more dangerous than other 'odourless' trace gasses that do something if make them not-so-trace because it's almost entirely an act-of-omission problem, so no 'side-effects'.
CO¹ might also be insidiius, but it does that by inflicting itself into our biology, even if you aren't aware of whatever smells commonly accompany the monoxide creation in many of its scenarios. (Subtler and 'cleaner' insufficient-combustion methods cause CO deaths in the sleep, but a wakeful person still has more chance of realising something is wrong, before succumbing.)
Well, along those lines. I'm generalising and trying not to go too deeply into what is potentially a Death Trope. Especially as it seems I'm definitelyvdrifting off-topic. (Moi?)
Post by: Bumber on July 05, 2020, 03:08:00 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 05, 2020, 03:56:49 pm
Wearing a mask could be more dangerous if makes you more inclined to keep adjusting it and touching your face. Add that on top of people who don't cover their nose with the mask, defeating the whole point.Again with "oh no masks are actually more dangerous than no masks"? ::)
No look. Every bit helps. Those who were saying this two months ago admitted that it was because there was a mask shortage, not because it wasn't sensible to wear a mask back then. So wear your goddamn mask in public.
Post by: kaijyuu on July 05, 2020, 04:01:22 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 05, 2020, 04:10:30 pm
I think that given that it was being said at the same time they were saying masks "might be dangerous" the reason is the same: masks were limited in number so they wanted a justification to allocate them in more critical areas (HCW and known infected people).
I think this was probably a mistake because it has fed on the "no-mask" alt right moron's paranoia
Post by: Bumber on July 05, 2020, 04:19:25 pm
Again with "oh no masks are actually more dangerous than no masks"? ::)
No look. Every bit helps. Those who were saying this two months ago admitted that it was because there was a mask shortage, not because it wasn't sensible to wear a mask back then. So wear your goddamn mask in public.
But wear it properly and don't touch your face.
If you want to be extra safe, wear eye protection (e.g., sunglasses.) It may be possible to get COVID through contact with your eyes.
Post by: Akura on July 05, 2020, 04:33:47 pm
Wearing a mask could be more dangerous if makes you more inclined to keep adjusting it and touching your face. Add that on top of people who don't cover their nose with the mask, defeating the whole point.
I'm guilty of the first one. The ones I wear at work keep sliding up causing the nose band to keep pressing on the bottom of my eye, which in turn causes eye strain and fatigue. Also, I keep inhaling my beard.
As for the second, one of my coworkers keeps the mask below his nose, and he's been reminded more than once to fix it. But then, he's also a douche who has consistently surprised me with the fact that he's still employed.
Then again, we are desperate for new hires at the moment, so that's a plausible excuse for now.
Post by: Rolan7 on July 05, 2020, 05:03:27 pm
But wear it properly and don't touch your face.Yeah, this. Since Covid can enter through the mouth and nose, I'm pretty certain it can enter through the eyes. If I really want to feel safe I put on sunglasses with my mask, regardless of how sketch it makes me look.
If you want to be extra safe, wear eye protection (e.g., sunglasses.) It may be possible to get COVID through contact with your eyes.
Generally I feel fine with just the mask and gloves. They do little to protect me directly, but they do help with my brain. They keep me from casually touching my face. They remind me to social distance, and others to do so. They particularly get me washing my hands, because they're gross and sweaty (I have to rinse them out every time I go shopping - discouraging me from doing so more than necessary).
And if I *am* exhaling virus asymptomatically, they help protect others from that. My hands would be covered from my breath and the objects in my home, but then I put those gloves on and don the mask. (I also like the mask for body-dysphoria reasons, being honest).
I don't think touching your face while removing a mask is a big deal though? As long as you keep away from the orifices (eyes/nose/mouth)... eh, maybe a problem. I tend to pull it off without touching my face anyway though, because its presence reminds me that we literally live in Deus Ex 1.
(replaying that game has been a trip - weird enough that it came out right before 9/11 and vaguely predicted that, but the main plot is about a deadly pandemic and the government's monstrous response).
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 05, 2020, 05:08:59 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 05, 2020, 05:09:39 pm
I'm pretty sure the vast majority of contagions are person to person through suspended particles though. There's actually a pretty strong debate going on about this at the moment
Post by: martinuzz on July 05, 2020, 05:17:05 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 05, 2020, 05:19:57 pm
Post by: Max™ on July 05, 2020, 05:36:27 pm
On the other hand, I saw a thing yesterday which I am LITERALLY ANGRY WITH RAGE over having never seen before: https://twitter.com/FixTheMask/status/1249354757308735489/video/1
Simply doing that turns a surgical mask from a directional protection to a goddamn N95 level equivalent both ways!
Post by: martinuzz on July 05, 2020, 06:01:47 pm
Post by: Doomblade187 on July 05, 2020, 06:02:32 pm
It looks pretty darn smart, but it only works if your nose has the right shape. If I do that, the rubber band will keep rolling off my nose and whipping my lips.You can get around that by using armature wire for the nose.
Post by: martinuzz on July 05, 2020, 06:09:37 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 05, 2020, 06:18:32 pm
Everything short of properly fitted N95 masks are indeed better at protecting others from you, surgical masks for example aren't designed to seal your face, they're designed to keep you from breathing directly into the thing you're working on, like an open thoracic cavity, but they're useless for protecting others when you go to the grocery store because you're just leaving trails of potentially infectious air shot out past your cheeks.I respectfully disagree (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214).
Quote
On the other hand, I saw a thing yesterday which I am LITERALLY ANGRY WITH RAGE over having never seen before: https://twitter.com/FixTheMask/status/1249354757308735489/video/1
Simply doing that turns a surgical mask from a directional protection to a goddamn N95 level equivalent both ways![/quote]
That's interesting though. It'd help to deal with face shape. Every bit helps
Post by: Max™ on July 05, 2020, 06:22:36 pm
Using this for people who can't fit an N95 mask properly is SUPER important too.
Post by: martinuzz on July 05, 2020, 06:25:24 pm
Post by: Max™ on July 05, 2020, 06:30:45 pm
Post by: Starver on July 05, 2020, 08:07:48 pm
You can get around that by using armature wire for the nose.My mask (heat washable, reusable) has just such a wire. Darnit but it does not do as well as promised, and I have to adjust the thing, consciously avoiding the bits below where the breath passes through. (I'd argue that it's hardly N95 level, even/especially with the rubber-band trick, but that's another issue.)
On my own 'mask regimine', I've just erased three or four long paragraphs, which were getting out of hand, and will (better, if insufficiently) summarise as follows. I don't wear my mask continuously outside the house. If I were to use public transport, I would put it on, and other unavoidably close and internal circumstances. Open air, with no-one nearby (at worst, a transient passing by as I step into the road to avoid an oncoming fellow- pedestrian, hand signaling my intentions and ensuring I'm traffic-free for the duration), the mask would be less useful and even counter-productive. Both in idly fiddling with it and in ultimately in becoming an inattentive bastard lost in his own little antisocial bubble of smug self-protection.
The time it is not on my face (or at home, awaiting variously its carriage in my travels or a good boil-wash) jt is in a sandwich bag in my pocket. It is extracted and restored in a practiced manner that keeps nominally-infected surfaces from touching those that aren't so designatable. The former goes from the "breath through" part of the cloth through to the bag interior, the latter includes the ear-loops, the bit with the nose-wire in, the outside of the bag and the lining of my pockets and all other pitential contents.
My hands are not gloved. With gloves, I could easily treat their surfaces as unduly safe when they may not be. Instead, I rely on being concious of what I touch. (Not who. I'm already a dab-hand and not dabbing my hands onto people in the first place. My last handshake was September/October last year - I could find the exact date easily enough - when profered by an almost perfect stranger in a situatiin it would have been impolite to refuse.)
I also distrust public hand-sanitiser dispensors (you have to somehow manhandle one form of pump or other prior to the dosage-delivery itself, perhaps it was last used by someone conscientious who had good reason to be conscientious, and maybe I get to unknowingly be that person at some point). So I just take more notice of what I must touch, and how (like favouring a hand).
Oh look, as many paragraphs, but far fewer words in each. That'll have to do.
Post by: Greiger on July 07, 2020, 02:40:50 am
When I was there I overheard some little old lady tell off the boss for not wearing a mask, and the boss responded that if they don't like it they can leave. Boss was also following me around in the "I suspect you are stealing something" way she always does that she thinks is subtle when ex employees shop there. And I saw no sanitizer, no gloves, no masks on or near the cashier and the debit card machine had the usual covered in fingerprints look it always had indicating it hadn't been sanitized in some time. This is compared to the location by my house, where the employees are always wearing masks, they have plastic clear screens up between the cashier and the cash registers both have bottles of hand sanitiser for customers to use if they wish.
Kinda glad I left that location when the getting was good. Kinda wonder how many cases per day Florida needs to get up to before my old boss starts taking this stuff seriously.
Post by: scriver on July 07, 2020, 04:52:47 am
Post by: martinuzz on July 07, 2020, 05:09:29 am
The operating lung specialist said that her old lungs were 'as hard as a rock' when they were removed. There was no lung tissue left, only scar tissue.
She is the third person worldwide that received a lung transplantation as a treatment for Covid.
Let the organ harvesting begin!
Post by: Egan_BW on July 07, 2020, 05:27:04 am
Post by: Iduno on July 07, 2020, 07:58:23 am
In South Korea, a 50 year old woman is finally recovering from Covid, after having spent 112 days in a medical coma on a respirator and a heart-lung machine (ECMO, Extrta-corporeal membrane oxygenation), and after having had a double lung transplantation.
The operating lung specialist said that her old lungs were 'as hard as a rock' when they were removed. There was no lung tissue left, only scar tissue.
She is the third person worldwide that received a lung transplantation as a treatment for Covid.
Let the organ harvesting begin!
Yeah, my fitness-loving coworker "recovered" in 2 weeks in that he could walk again, and was no longer confined to his couch. It's been ~3 months, and he still looks like death. If you get it bad, it's like a serious case of pnemonia, even if you're a very healthy person.
Post by: Rolan7 on July 07, 2020, 09:04:56 am
My casual interpretation is that I live in a city and particularly neighborhood with a lot of relatively-well-off racial minorities. People who take the situation extremely seriously, and also have the means and information to take precautions. IDK, it kinda gave me hope for people.
I guess this isn't the sort of demographic that gives much credence to this White House's recommendations, particularly after recent events.
Post by: martinuzz on July 07, 2020, 10:44:09 am
Let's see if he still calls it ' just a small flu' when it hits him hard.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 07, 2020, 10:51:19 am
Post by: martinuzz on July 07, 2020, 10:55:13 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 07, 2020, 11:05:57 am
So a mild case does not necessarily save you...it would be interesting to review the lung quality of people with mild cases who ended up dying.
Post by: martinuzz on July 07, 2020, 11:12:01 am
Post by: misko27 on July 07, 2020, 11:24:44 am
Remember Boris was fine, up until he wasn't. That was day 9 or so?
Post by: martinuzz on July 07, 2020, 11:25:13 am
Since he contracted the virus half april, he has been homebound, often exhausted.He recovered from the virus and started working again from home, but this has been difficult. Recently, the coughs and fatigue have returned.
'the virus is like a tornado', says Quest. 'When it has landed, it whirls around in the body, causing chaos, confusion, fits of coughing, while damaging every organ it touches. Some do not survive it's visit. Others who survive realize that the damage done is much larger than thought at first'.
For example, to his own surprise, Quest has become terribly clumsy. 'When I try to pick up a glass, I knock it over or drop it on the floor. I trip over my furniture. It is as if the part of my brain that prevents object collision is no longer functioning. Sometimes I am also confused; small slowdowns in thinking, not finding the right word, that kind of thing'.
Here's an interview Quest gave in April, when he had just heard he had contracted the virus:
https://youtu.be/CuRuIzUTrnk (https://youtu.be/CuRuIzUTrnk)
Post by: Starver on July 07, 2020, 12:54:24 pm
It appears that most of the lung damage is mostly done by the immune system, not by the virus itself.Obviously, then, we need to destroy his immune system. Just to be helpful, of course.
ETA:
For example, to his own surprise, Quest has become terribly clumsy. 'When I try to pick up a glass, I knock it over or drop it on the floor. I trip over my furniture. It is as if the part of my brain that prevents object collision is no longer functioning. Sometimes I am also confused; small slowdowns in thinking, not finding the right word, that kind of thing'.Difficulty picking up glasses. Difficulty walking around simple terrain. Brainfarts and acute lethothological miscommunication... I hope no actual world leader starts to exhibit such signs.
Post by: scriver on July 07, 2020, 02:40:55 pm
Also bear in mind most cases are mild until they aren't... and he's actually had symptoms. He's not asymptomatic or anything, he's got fever, fatigue, muscle pain, so he's not among that lucky group that get it and don't notice.
Remember Boris was fine, up until he wasn't. That was day 9 or so?
This is how I've heard it seems to week. The second week is when it goes bad.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 07, 2020, 05:49:41 pm
Here's a tinfoil theory: he's fucking lying. He's not covid+ de novo. He already had covid and it was mild. He's now pretending to have covid19 to support his argument that it's not that bad and everyone should work without masks
Post by: NJW2000 on July 07, 2020, 05:57:44 pm
Didnt Bolso pass covid already?
Weird that you should say that. I remember thinking that Bolsanaro was probably the biggest initial spreader in his country, if not patient zero, a few weeks ago.
Maybe he had symptoms or something?
Post by: scriver on July 07, 2020, 06:01:04 pm
Didnt Bolso pass covid already?
Here's a tinfoil theory: he's fucking lying. He's not covid+ de novo. He already had covid and it was mild. He's now pretending to have covid19 to support his argument that it's not that bad and everyone should work without masks
He made an appearance with a mask, though
Post by: Reelya on July 08, 2020, 12:57:45 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/07/07/florida-carsyn-davis-coronavirus/
Quote
The Miami-Dade County Medical Examiner found that the immunocompromised teen went to a large church party with roughly 100 other children where she did not wear a mask and social distancing was not enforced. Then, after getting sick, nearly a week passed before she was taken to the hospital, and during that time her parents gave her hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial drug touted by President Trump that the Food and Drug Administration has issued warnings about, saying usage could cause potentially deadly heart rhythm problems.
Florida-level dumbass meets Trump supporter-level dumbass. Seriously, take your kid to the hospital.
Post by: McTraveller on July 08, 2020, 11:47:18 am
One can only hope that one side effect of this pandemic is that we'll get "practical statistics" back in mainstream school curricula...
EDIT: Whee... my state new case count (yeah I know, accuracy, meaning, etc) is the highest it's been in 52 days. Mortality is still low though, which I guess is positive. :-\ (Hoping it's "catch up" numbers from the holiday weekend... but...)
Post by: Max™ on July 08, 2020, 05:48:34 pm
That story was just the Florida Mom version.
Also we hit 55k yesterday and 52k today, so it's not just weekend catchup.
Post by: McTraveller on July 08, 2020, 07:31:09 pm
It is definitely clear, though, that our daily case counts have gone up in the 30 days since our restrictions have been lifted a bit.
Mortality though has been about flat for the past 30 days. So that's an interesting trend - suggesting either the medical pros are better at keeping people alive, the characteristics of the virus or the infected have changed, and/or the lag in those stats is greater than 30 days. Seems to be real though - the actual peak deaths per day in MI occurred 18 days after the peak in daily case counts. So 30 days after restrictions lifting and having mostly constant daily deaths is significant, not a fluke.
Post by: Ziusudra on July 08, 2020, 07:41:21 pm
Uh, Florida has a much higher rate of idiots than 1 in 1000, and a much higher quality of idiots at that. Florida man isn't just a meme, it's an actual thing.Everywhere has just as many of those idiots, Florida just has a law making all records public: https://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/how-floridas-proud-open-government-laws-lead-to-the-shame-of-florida-man-news-stories-7608595
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 08, 2020, 07:44:23 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on July 08, 2020, 08:10:14 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 08, 2020, 11:03:09 pm
Hah, you guys still believe in Florida? It's not a place, it's a creature~Pretty sure it’s part of the North America continent, unless you’re also implying that The Who,e continent is a creature. (I most definitely missed whatever reference you’re attempting to make, please enlighten me when you say Florida is a creature)
Post by: wierd on July 08, 2020, 11:06:59 pm
So, now we all get to have a swab ram-rodded up our nostrils. Looking forward to it.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 08, 2020, 11:08:11 pm
Hah, you guys still believe in Florida? It's not a place, it's a creature~Pretty sure it’s part of the North America continent, unless you’re also implying that The Whole continent is a creature. (I most definitely missed whatever reference you’re attempting to make, please enlighten me when you say Florida is a creature)
If the continent is a creature, then Florida must be the male genital.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 08, 2020, 11:20:03 pm
Post by: wierd on July 08, 2020, 11:33:33 pm
As in, somebody working at your elder care job?
Yes. One of our younger employees (between 18 and 20) tested positive for crow plague.
They say they want to have test kits here before 10 tomorrow. I will come and have the swab rammed up my nose when they get the kits in.
Post by: scriver on July 09, 2020, 12:36:10 am
Only those who have not born witness to Dread Florida with their own eyes believe such an explanation.
There is simply no way the only reason behind Florida's crazy is the publicity laws. These things aren't commonplace and Florida is mostly populated by retirees I hear
Post by: Ziusudra on July 09, 2020, 01:40:18 am
As I know more of mankind I expect less of them, and am ready now to call a man a good man upon easier terms than I was formerly.
– Samuel Johnson
Post by: scriver on July 09, 2020, 03:20:00 am
Such as living in a stinky hellish steam swamp
Post by: feelotraveller on July 09, 2020, 04:47:02 am
Eh, I don't care about the entire US stats. I just care about my state. Yeah it's selfish but this is a highly geographically dependent phenomenon.
It is definitely clear, though, that our daily case counts have gone up in the 30 days since our restrictions have been lifted a bit.
Mortality though has been about flat for the past 30 days. So that's an interesting trend - suggesting either the medical pros are better at keeping people alive, the characteristics of the virus or the infected have changed, and/or the lag in those stats is greater than 30 days. Seems to be real though - the actual peak deaths per day in MI occurred 18 days after the peak in daily case counts. So 30 days after restrictions lifting and having mostly constant daily deaths is significant, not a fluke.
There has definitely been a shift in the demographic of the new cases. See for example: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/02/covid-19-young-people-america-coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/02/covid-19-young-people-america-coronavirus)
Quote
Between late March and late June, Ellingson said the mean age of new cases in the state dropped from 51 to 38.*Given that new cases (in the US) are much more likely than previously to be younger people and younger people are much less likely to become severely ill/die of Covid-19, that would explain at least some of that. Also remember to factor in the time delay between infection and death.
Why cases have spiked amongst younger people is another question. Greater susceptibility to media manipulation? Different socialisation patterns?? Less tolerance to isolation? More general ebullience? 'Not going to affect me and I don't give a shit about others' attitude? Probably all of the above and more besides. ;)
* Cherry-picked quote for TLDR; syndrome.
Post by: kaijyuu on July 09, 2020, 04:56:50 am
Demographically, susceptibility to media manipulation and "me first" attitudes are much more prevalent in older people, so definitely not those.
Post by: Jopax on July 09, 2020, 05:55:26 am
Post by: scriver on July 09, 2020, 07:37:39 am
I would hazard a guess that it's mostly greater willingness to visit a doctor when having symptoms. Young people don't have money.
Demographically, susceptibility to media manipulation and "me first" attitudes are much more prevalent in older people, so definitely not those.
Only than people above 25-Older
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 09, 2020, 08:05:21 am
I regard this claim as dubious as when that other guy stsrts raving about how in the olde times (aka his generation and older) people got educatrd into financisl responsability
Demographically, susceptibility to media manipulation and "me first" attitudes are much more prevalent in older people, so definitely not those.
Post by: scriver on July 09, 2020, 08:43:33 am
Post by: Bralbaard on July 09, 2020, 08:51:57 am
Mortality though has been about flat for the past 30 days. So that's an interesting trend - suggesting either the medical pros are better at keeping people alive, the characteristics of the virus or the infected have changed, and/or the lag in those stats is greater than 30 days. Seems to be real though - the actual peak deaths per day in MI occurred 18 days after the peak in daily case counts. So 30 days after restrictions lifting and having mostly constant daily deaths is significant, not a fluke.
Don't get too comfortable yet. Latest figures seem to imply that the number of dead might have started to slowly go up. If I read the graph correctly we are now indeed about 18 days behind the date where case numbers started to go back up. (but this graph itself seems to imply that earlier on the delay between cases and deaths was much shorter)
(https://pic8.co/sh/T5fL0A.png)
Post by: McTraveller on July 09, 2020, 09:04:45 am
Post by: Iduno on July 09, 2020, 09:04:58 am
Mortality though has been about flat for the past 30 days. So that's an interesting trend - suggesting either the medical pros are better at keeping people alive, the characteristics of the virus or the infected have changed, and/or the lag in those stats is greater than 30 days. Seems to be real though - the actual peak deaths per day in MI occurred 18 days after the peak in daily case counts. So 30 days after restrictions lifting and having mostly constant daily deaths is significant, not a fluke.
Don't get too comfortable yet. Latest figures seem to imply that the number of dead might have started to slowly go up. If I read the graph correctly we are now indeed about 18 days behind the date where case numbers started to go back up. (but this graph itself seems to imply that earlier on the delay between cases and deaths was much shorter)
(https://pic8.co/sh/T5fL0A.png)
Yeah, hospitals not being (at the time) overcrowded was helping keep the death rate down, but they've already been turning people away from the hospitals again because they're already over capacity. That death rate is going to rise pretty quickly now (assuming those people are still counted).
Post by: Bralbaard on July 09, 2020, 09:11:49 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 09, 2020, 09:32:43 am
That US national view is "too big" though; data is smeared out over too large a geographic area. I was looking just at my state, for which cases are concentrated in a small geographic area with a radius of maybe 50 miles.Any country's view is too big in that regard. Which is one of the reasons why I think deaths per capita is probably not a good estimate of the situation, as this can be influenced by many things..
I suspect we're getting some sort of new lockdown in Europe sooner rather than later
Post by: Iduno on July 09, 2020, 01:09:18 pm
I also think early on a lot of cases went undiagnosed until people came into the hospital because they were already very ill. Today there's a lot more testing with mild symptoms, so that would definitely give you a longer delay. Let's hope they can avoid capacity problems at hospitals this time around.
Already a week too late for that hope, depending on where you are.
Post by: Max™ on July 09, 2020, 09:50:29 pm
I wish I could see a reason to think the multiple 50k+ case days over the last two weeks won't result in a terrifying new jump in deaths that we're just seeing the edge of...
...I really wish I could.
Post by: scriver on July 10, 2020, 12:24:34 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 10, 2020, 12:28:24 am
Post by: andrea on July 10, 2020, 12:54:36 am
There are a lot of reasons why we would expect a lot less deaths (at least in Italy) compared to march.
Of course it is possible that a weaker strain is spreading and perhaps they have proven that in the study. Just, there are many reasons for lower lethality besides a weaker virus.
Post by: misko27 on July 10, 2020, 01:27:47 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 10, 2020, 03:02:16 am
So yesterday the news on my news was that covid, according to an as of yet unpublished Italian study, is "getting weaker". What do you think, reliable or media hyperbole?For what I've read all along its not significantly changing one way or the other, nor is it expected to do so. Any supposed behavior changes are more likely related to changes in human behavior.
Post by: Reelya on July 10, 2020, 06:56:28 am
A milder strain can spread more because it creates a higher amount of asymptomatic carriers. But that's also the whole reasons SARS-1 and MERS didn't kill more people despite being so lethal. Covid-19 specifically spread more and killed more because it's "weaker". Highly deadly things tend to make more people really sick straight away so they don't have long asymptomatic incubation periods, so they're ironically easier to get on top of.
So with the virus already mutating, the mutations that best slip through our defenses are going to spread the fastest. So if you have a "quarantine anyone with the sniffles" rule for example, then a variant that gives less people the sniffles will proliferate faster than the other strains.
Post by: scriver on July 10, 2020, 09:16:07 am
Post by: TamerVirus on July 10, 2020, 09:22:12 am
We should breed the weaker strains to hunt the stronger strainsThe strong should fear the weak?
Post by: scriver on July 10, 2020, 09:23:59 am
Post by: delphonso on July 10, 2020, 09:27:36 am
Post by: misko27 on July 10, 2020, 09:48:56 am
It's gonna be nasty when the full brunt of this wave starts being reflected in deaths.
Post by: Bralbaard on July 10, 2020, 10:21:23 am
That is more of less the idea behind vaccines.We should breed the weaker strains to hunt the stronger strainsThe strong should fear the weak?
Post by: McTraveller on July 10, 2020, 10:25:49 am
First "close" infections to me - my sister-in-law and nephew were sick last week (been back to normal so far for a week now, so that's good at least.), but tests came back positive. My brother and other nephew had no symptoms, so must've been in the asymptomatic/so mildly symptomatic they didn't notice cohort. They had visited my parents during the window period, so now parents are on watch list...hasn't quite been 14 days since their visit though but they have an appointment to get tested themselves.
Whee.
Post by: nenjin on July 10, 2020, 11:35:30 am
Is that my friend's, brother's, wife's parents (all from Florida, the parents are in their 70s) got sick. They both were hospitalized, the dad went to the ICU and was put in a coma, but then was taken out of it about a week later and moved out of the ICU. They're both in recovery now.
Closer to home I suppose, there's been many cases in the nursing home where my grandmother lives. So far she's not gotten sick.
Post by: kaijyuu on July 10, 2020, 12:16:08 pm
Post by: wierd on July 10, 2020, 04:50:32 pm
Hurrah for young kid employees not practicing hard lockdowns on socializing.
Post by: Max™ on July 10, 2020, 08:11:52 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 10, 2020, 09:15:03 pm
I am happy that I have a week off, sad that I have another week to work before that...
Was listening to the radio this morning, not really paying attention, but they were chatting about covid with some dude who was testing cases or analyzing data or something. Some dude calls in and is all “the government tyranny making us wear masks need stop! Anyone who gives up even the smallest liberty for security deserves neither!” and then the guest was like “shut up fool, your freedom ends when it infringes on someone else’s, bitch!” but it came out as “well, as an example, if you have a restaurant, you have the freedom to make some food and leave it sit for a week before serving it to someone, but you’ll get punished for doing it, rightly so, and it should be the same for not taking precautions against transmitting covid.”
Like, is American freedom just a special kind of freedom in which people don’t think you should be able to get punished for being a complete tit, or is this guy special?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 10, 2020, 09:16:38 pm
Never thought I'd actually see something like this happening. Couldn't believe it. Not in the western world. Holy fuck.
Bonus points for people making it worse by refusing to follow basic common sense guidelines. Remember when we shook our heads when people during the Ebola pandemic insisted in holding traditional funerals for the highly infectious dead? We have mass facemask refusal. We have people holding funerals, and baptisms, and weddings. We have folks doing deliberate covid parties FFS. All the things we saw happening during other disasters elsewhere, which we thought could never happening here, *are* happening, with a vengeance.
I'm quite shocked by all this.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 10, 2020, 09:31:15 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 10, 2020, 09:33:00 pm
Maybe they thought they'd "prove" covid is not important by risking themselves pointlessly.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 10, 2020, 09:38:13 pm
Dunno, don't ask me, ask *them*. In their heads it probably made sense in some twisted manner.Each day I learn new ways humans do things that make no sense...I wish people are sensible and not doing this kind of stuff. People fear AI, meanwhile, deliberately spreading a lethal virus while thinking it’s not a big deal. It is clear to me that the current human leaders aren’t doing their jobs, protecting their citizens from crises. I think an AI programmed to stop the spread of pandemics would to a much better job than the leaders we currently have. Why are there stupid people? Did they not pay attention in biology when learning how diseases spread?
Maybe they thought they'd "prove" covid is not important by risking themselves pointlessly.
Post by: Starver on July 10, 2020, 10:38:54 pm
I imagine that with this similar thing of the young (adults) generally getting away with few or no problems (that we know!) and most bad cases and deaths being in the upper-brackets of age, the logic (such as it is) is to try a similar trick.
Counter-arguments mostly arise from this being a novel outbreak, not one whose old-wife's-tale traditionalist non-medical approach to handling it has been put through the crucible of continuous checking against reality and increasing medical knowledge over decades and decades (perhaps centuries, possibly millenia) and has generally been found to be not a hidden dragon of a problem. If it is an outdated approach, with childhood vaccines now being an (at least) equivalently proven-beneficial thing to hold off the threat (for those who don't get innoculated against vaccines by the antivax misinformation), it is still a good second option.
With Covid, we just don't know, though. Young adults (and even young children) have been struck down by this - and not only those who are otherwise 'unnaturally' living with comorbid conditions known to interact badly. It's an age-band that the traditionalist would not suggest is safe for c.pox, as if that's any guide. The "catch it once, then never again" thing is unproven. The (more elderly) adults that would now come into contact with such party-goers have not themselves been party-innoculated when they were young[3] so cannot blithely supervise procedings or their aftermath, or even be around as the fizzling-out is still fizzling. Many more hidden variables remain so hidden.
And, moreover, the purpose is not an altruistic act by the elders-and-betters, working with principles passed onto them by their E&Bs, but is a self-guided possible-fantasy of freedom by the "I'm alright, Jack" generation that is deciding there's no real risk for itself (without following up the known repercussions, never mind the unknown ones) so let's PAAAAAARRRRRTÉ....
I'm not even sure there's any direct lineage to pox-parties, though it probably forms a sort of racial memory (an inkling, at least, rolled out as an explanation if challenged)used to 'justify' the naked hedonism at the core of the pursuit of such transient 'happiness'.
[1] Or were? I know of them mostly be reputation, TBH, as something that "has long been a thing" for the generation before me. Though I can't recall a specific party or two for me, immediately prior/post my own catching it[2], so was likely just an organic transmission process from what might these days have been called 'play dates'.
[2] If I bare my chest, and part the hairs, I can still see the most prominent 'scar' left over from the time, and remember the camomile lotion being rubbed into me by my mother. I was a mid-to-upper-single-digit age, for sure.
[3] Individuals who was never exposed to c.pox seem to be rare individuals, noted as needing to take care during "party season", in particular. If it's not actually a plot point in an Agatha Christie book, it's one in a AC-era book (by publication or just setting) along the same lines that I half remember, but results in an unpoxed person (for whatever reason they were) being vulnerable and knowing it.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 10, 2020, 10:47:10 pm
Since covid appears to be causing blood clots even in mild cases and is regardless the most dangerous pandemic since at least the H1N1 flu (and counting!), intentionally exposing someone to covid is, oh, say...attempted murder?
Post by: scriver on July 11, 2020, 06:35:41 am
Dunno, don't ask me, ask *them*. In their heads it probably made sense in some twisted manner.Each day I learn new ways humans do things that make no sense...I wish people are sensible and not doing this kind of stuff.
Maybe they thought they'd "prove" covid is not important by risking themselves pointlessly.
Humans never do things that make no sense. They only do things that make no sense to you (you being anyone)
Quote
People fear AI, meanwhile, deliberately spreading a lethal virus while thinking it’s not a big deal. It is clear to me that the current human leaders aren’t doing their jobs, protecting their citizens from crises. I think an AI programmed to stop the spread of pandemics would to a much better job than the leaders we currently have.
There's absolutely no reason to assume as such. I would go as far as saying assuming as such makes no sense
Post by: Starver on July 11, 2020, 06:51:32 am
I think I got a Tetanus 'booster' a number of years ago on what was probably my most recent visit to A&E (as subject of the visit, that is), just to be sure after I went in with a bit of a gashy-wound to the shin that I'd been unable to deal with myself. The fact that this was a booster (and suggested as being timely from my medical records) highly suggests that I'd had at least one prior shot for it (probably more, as I think it was sufficient time since my prior 'boost', whatever occasion that might have been for).
((My father was actually 'allergic' to anti-Tetanus. Maybe an older concoction, but there was some sort of reaction he had that meant they told him to just take more care when gardening[2] to avoid the necessity in future. But there was and remains no reason to believe I am so inclined, and it might have been a co-factor in the vaccine mix that had now long since been phased out.))
Not yet[1] having parented a child, I'm just not up on more contemporary vaccination schedules and rostas, from the viewpoint of 'interested observer' and schedule-follower.
As long as we get more paperclips, as promised, I'm sure there's no issue letting Skynet take over!I think an AI programmed to stop the spread of pandemics would to a much better job than the leaders we currently have.There's absolutely no reason to assume as such. I would go as far as saying assuming as such makes no sense
[1] insert obligatory "...that I know of!" innuendo somewhere around here, for old times' sake...
[2] Jokes on them. He didn't tend the garden, mum did...
Post by: McTraveller on July 11, 2020, 07:11:01 am
Part is also that humans are really bad at risk estimation. I work with risk every day - not health risk, but probability of equipment failure kind of risk. There whole thing, though, is predicated on the highly subjective concept of "acceptable risk." This starts falling into cultural aspects too. A simple example is: people who ride motorcycles willingly accept a higher level of risk than people who buy a Volvo because the Volvo brand is the "safety" brand for cars.
So some of the argument with this pandemic is that some people are telling other people what levels of risk they should be tolerating. This is the "personal affront" part. The US in general does not have a value system that espouses personal sacrifice to benefit the public good. So why would you expect people to suddenly adopt this value when they haven't had it for the entire life?
Add to that the fact that virus impact is highly based on probability and changes dramatically between geographic regions, and it's understandable why attitudes are the way they are, even if you don't agree with them. Regardless of that, forcing people to adopt your values is a questionable population, and "for the greater good" is a dangerous rationale for use of that force, because how can you challenge what "the greater good" is?
Post by: Reelya on July 11, 2020, 08:43:20 am
It's not the mandating that people follow the rules that's the problem, it's that in America there's no consistency. Here we have the federal and state governments saying follow the rules, rules breakers are assholes and will be punished. Which is the heavy-handed stuff but it's at least consistent, and the leaders involved have actually become pretty popular. The "let's work together" thing in a crisis is in fact that there are authorities who set the rules and people know what the rules are so they don't panic. For example, if there was a volcano erupting the last thing you want is the leaders going "gee if we all work together we can work this out" what people actually want is "get in this line, grab this thing, go over there, someone is in control of the situation".
If Trump had been 100% "these are the rules now obey or else" from the start and enforced heavy-handed rules then sure people would have grumbled, but people would have gone along with it and he'd have a popularity rating of about 70% right now. If Trump had more of a brain he would have turned the coronavirus into a surefire way to win an unwinnable election.
So you got three possible responses from leadership. (1) is the touchy-feely consultative type of leadership (will just appear as weakness / indecision / worthless in this situation), (2) is abrogation of responsibility (what Trump is doing) and (3) is the strong man / in control / commander type. (3) is the optimal response in a situation like this.
Post by: Iduno on July 11, 2020, 09:43:01 am
Dunno, don't ask me, ask *them*. In their heads it probably made sense in some twisted manner.Each day I learn new ways humans do things that make no sense...I wish people are sensible and not doing this kind of stuff. People fear AI, meanwhile, deliberately spreading a lethal virus while thinking it’s not a big deal. It is clear to me that the current human leaders aren’t doing their jobs, protecting their citizens from crises. I think an AI programmed to stop the spread of pandemics would to a much better job than the leaders we currently have. Why are there stupid people? Did they not pay attention in biology when learning how diseases spread?
Maybe they thought they'd "prove" covid is not important by risking themselves pointlessly.
People want to trust a leader so they don't have to put any effort into learning about the world. And leaders want to increase their wealth at the cost of the people they govern.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on July 11, 2020, 11:12:32 am
You were limited to whatever your local library had, one book at a time, written by one author that you couldn't really verify, also sometimes that book was 10 years old.
I think a lot of previous generation's attitude comes from this mindset. Who else were you supposed to trust? Someone whose job it was to verify. A news anchor, or a national leader with (ostensibly) a team of dedicated experts. As recently as 25 years ago we had WEB CHAT ROOMS AND THE DAMN RADIO as the fastest way to share info between individual parties.
You're saying they've been unconditionally corrupt for my entire life and we can only prove it now because of the age of social media and omnipresent camera devices, rendering my entire lifelong system of belief suspect from the ground up? Can't handle it. Do not wish it to be so. Entrench.
Post by: feelotraveller on July 12, 2020, 11:23:17 am
COVID parties sound very stupid. Why would anyone do something like that?
Individual cases will vary but the Chairman was spot on for this case:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/11/texas-patient-30-dies-after-attending-covid-party-doctor-says/5422175002/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/11/texas-patient-30-dies-after-attending-covid-party-doctor-says/5422175002/)
(TLDR; Title of article is " 'I thought this was a hoax': Patient, 30, dies after attending 'COVID party,' doctor says")
I have a horrible suspicion that this is not an outlier in terms of motivation.
Post by: misko27 on July 12, 2020, 02:51:53 pm
Post by: wierd on July 12, 2020, 03:03:14 pm
Again, you can recover from being poor. You dont recover from being dead.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 12, 2020, 03:06:51 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 12, 2020, 06:16:59 pm
Not as bad as elsewhere, but worrisome all the same.
Post by: Reelya on July 12, 2020, 06:34:32 pm
"Patient who believed pandemic was a hoax dies after attending COVID party"
https://www.news.com.au/world/north-america/patient-who-believed-pandemic-was-a-hoax-dies-after-attending-covid-party/news-story/a321fc594942c1cd3d41a65b9fd51673
I'm sure there are people reading that who are sitting there saying clearly this guy's story is another hoax.
But I can't really get the mindset of people who think that the powers that be would collapse the entire economy via an elaborate hoax. The powers that be were just that, powers that "be". They were perfectly happy with the existing situation because it was engineered to suit them. The elites destroying everything makes no sense.
It also shows a severe lack of reasoning skills. Is every doctor and the entire medical profession in on the hoax? Is this an effective doctor-lead coup where they wrest control of society to medical experts, with the nurses and other medical workers as the loyal footsoldiers also going along with the hoax?
Post by: kaijyuu on July 12, 2020, 07:13:35 pm
Post by: wierd on July 12, 2020, 07:16:05 pm
Naturally, lots of people do it.
Not hard to understand at all. People want to get fast food, they want to go to the movies, they want to hang out with friends, they want to go to the beach and get tan--- The pandemic stops all those things, in the name of public health. Rather than go "oh, I guess I can't do those things right now.", they go "NO! IT'S A LIE!!"
Then they go do those things.
And then people die.
Post by: Starver on July 12, 2020, 07:28:50 pm
(Less extreme viewpoints may exist, but only amongst those mind-controlled shills with a Gates Foundation microchip injected into them by the MM...)
In other words, there's always someone.
[1] From whatever extremity they sit even further offshore from. Whether they're more Bernie Babe or Trumpite, Corbynite or Boris Bro. Rather than try to win the game of chess they see being played better by others, they'd like to just flip the table over and hope that scrabbling around trying to pick up the pieces becomes the new game, and that they'd be good at it.
Post by: dragdeler on July 12, 2020, 07:59:17 pm
Post by: Iduno on July 12, 2020, 09:23:19 pm
Wisconsin’s 4 highest daily rises in positive cases have been the last 4 days.
Not as bad as elsewhere, but worrisome all the same.
It'll be fine. (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1282117207728836608)
Post by: hector13 on July 12, 2020, 09:30:25 pm
Wisconsin’s 4 highest daily rises in positive cases have been the last 4 days.
Not as bad as elsewhere, but worrisome all the same.
It'll be fine. (https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1282117207728836608)
Only 350 people there.
Only about a dozen wore masks according to WPR, and also there was the disclaimer that, essentially, if you got sick it was your own damn fault.
Post by: feelotraveller on July 13, 2020, 08:52:49 am
https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-fake-signs-melbourne-playgrounds-lockdown-100338864.html (https://au.news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-fake-signs-melbourne-playgrounds-lockdown-100338864.html)
Someone put up fake signs at children's playgrounds over the weekend in part of Melbourne saying that the playgrounds were open when they were officially closed. Part of the city is in lockdown over a cluster of new cases, about 200ish a day. They came complete with forged signatures of the local Mayor and insisted that a "a strong immune system is best defence against the current COVID-19 threat and children are the safest community group" [sic]. Needless to say several families were fooled and used the playground.
That's maliciousness and not just stupidity. Let's hope no one dies from it. >:(
Post by: scriver on July 13, 2020, 08:55:15 am
Post by: dragdeler on July 13, 2020, 12:33:10 pm
Post by: McTraveller on July 13, 2020, 01:16:21 pm
See I can statistic too! ;D
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 13, 2020, 01:18:05 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on July 13, 2020, 01:20:43 pm
IMMUNITY!
(might not even be feasible)
Post by: Strik3r on July 13, 2020, 01:26:00 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 13, 2020, 01:46:59 pm
Quote
the human immune system does not build immunity against China's VirusOf course it does, else everybody would have the virus forever, and every symptomatic carrier would die from it, which clearly does not happen.
The question is how long the immunity lasts.
Post by: Starver on July 13, 2020, 02:22:00 pm
Post by: kaijyuu on July 13, 2020, 03:52:24 pm
China's VirusIt's "Merrica Virus" now.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 13, 2020, 03:57:34 pm
The FLU-S-AChina's VirusIt's "Merrica Virus" now.
Americovid-19
Orange Man Wave
Land of the Flu
Don's Yuge Fluey
The Land of Opportunistic Infection
The Melting Pox
Post by: scriver on July 13, 2020, 11:59:18 pm
Electric Bug-aloo
Bestflu
Post by: misko27 on July 14, 2020, 10:22:15 am
Meanwhile in New York I think we're all quite grateful that this is over, at least for now, and hopeful it doesn't return for some time. Hope the state-mandated quarantine orders for travelers from other states helps.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 14, 2020, 10:44:47 am
...
Well,- (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests?CMP=share_btn_fb)
Uh... (https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity)
Post by: TamerVirus on July 14, 2020, 10:51:21 am
THINK OF THE PROFIT!
Post by: Egan_BW on July 14, 2020, 01:36:12 pm
Post by: Starver on July 14, 2020, 01:48:04 pm
Hmm. Time to develop a gene therapy to make the body continue to produce antibodies...without the chance of messing up and initiating some form or other of chronic leukæmia?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 14, 2020, 01:51:26 pm
"Herd immunity" strategies are still stupid in either scenario. More so in the ultra-transient immunity one.
Post by: dragdeler on July 14, 2020, 01:54:02 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 14, 2020, 02:11:03 pm
I guess we'll find out soon anyway. It has been 4 months since March. If its true that immunity drops after 3 months I'm guessing we'll begin to see case reports of reinfected folks far more often. :/
Damn. If this crap goes seasonal we're in deep shit
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 14, 2020, 02:29:16 pm
At this point I'm expecting one of three scenarios:
1. Virus printer goes BRR - Covid just keeps going, immediately drawing back up in any nation that drops quarantine, and there is a meaningful heard immunity period which knowing our luck will be reached just as we approve a usable vaccine.
2. Seasonality - there's a weird amount of evidence right now that covid is doing better in hot climates and seasons. I do not have the slightest idea why that should be possible given the infamous weakness of coronaviruses to hot weather, but the data speaks for itself. Some have suggesting air conditioning spreads it dramatically fast and thus this happens in hot places more, but that doesn't explain Brazil's infection - only 16% of the population there uses AC.
3. Hard 70 - The worst case scenario not yet disproven, and what those links warn of. Covid, whether seasonal or constant, has a functional immunity period of 3-6 months. Repeated infections sweep the world with the same frequency as the common cold and, in the absence of a vaccine that can overcome this limitation, the population over age 70 completely collapses alongside an extreme uptick in blood clot-related organ damage for those below 70.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 14, 2020, 02:35:48 pm
🤞🤞
Post by: misko27 on July 14, 2020, 04:39:06 pm
The situation with people who may have been asymptomatic their first time and never realized they were infected only complicates all of this further.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 14, 2020, 04:48:03 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on July 14, 2020, 04:52:37 pm
Quarantines for 22 states!
That population is about half the country.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 14, 2020, 05:11:00 pm
The ones who do have % close to herd immunity are Madrid's nursing homes, with seroprevalences of 70%. Of course this was because the virus ran rampant and killed 17% of residemts sp there is that
Post by: Iduno on July 14, 2020, 07:17:18 pm
Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication.
Could be that they're capable of learning. Florida and Texas have been hotspots for well over 3 months, due to disbelief turning out to be a different sort of thing than immunity.
Post by: Starver on July 14, 2020, 07:43:02 pm
Post by: misko27 on July 14, 2020, 08:06:54 pm
So I don't think this is the result of any kind of immunity, just successful lockdown truncating infections.Oh neither do I. I think the success of lockdown is unrelated really. Rather I was pointing to the tendency of a virus to burn out on very local level (referring mostly to individual cities) because of lockdowns or even just simply "burning through its fuel" as it were.
Since most people were uninfected though, a second wave in those areas is still possible, and if it occurs there will no doubt be large-scale exposure of people who've overcome the virus to newly sick, and this will give us the best chance to see whether immunity lasts. However until that occurs it's simply not very likely to be exposed to the virus 3-6 months after you get better (and specifically when you recover and not when you first get sick!) because your area (in a narrow sense), statistically, has probably gotten the virus under control by then.
As a result I suspect that the outbreaks in the West and South will be most likely to give an answer, as, well... yeah.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 14, 2020, 09:18:59 pm
Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication.
Could be that they're capable of learning. Florida and Texas have been hotspots for well over 3 months, due to disbelief turning out to be a different sort of thing than immunity.
Well then I guess we'll learn through them what are the odds of reinfection.
Teamwork!
Post by: Iduno on July 14, 2020, 10:08:51 pm
Bear in mind that communities ravaged by the virus (as a percentage of total population) tend to not still be ravaged by the virus in 3 months, if Wuhan, Lombardy, and New York are any indication.
Could be that they're capable of learning. Florida and Texas have been hotspots for well over 3 months, due to disbelief turning out to be a different sort of thing than immunity.
Well then I guess we'll learn through them what are the odds of reinfection.
Teamwork!
Well, they're also both not good about testing or admitting to results, which will skew any information from them.
Post by: wierd on July 14, 2020, 11:50:42 pm
Enough aggregate data will exist to get a proximal baseline that is useful.
Post by: Starver on July 15, 2020, 03:35:35 am
[...]because your area (in a narrow sense), statistically, has probably gotten the virus under control by then.
Reminds me (not directly related to the point you're making) of the Anti-Lockdowner argument going round (based on selective, and now old, data no doubt) that various locked-down US states (NY among them) had more cases than those that didn't (some now do), 'hilariously' flipping the implied causation.
Makes me wonder how much they believe their own propoganda, or the handy talking point handed to them, or are they entirely conscious but hope others don't notice. Of course, their 'top 5' are(/were) Blue (and tend to be highly metropolitan) and 'bottom 5' Red (and tending highly rural), so they had another point to make (while missing at least one other factor).
Post by: wierd on July 15, 2020, 03:57:30 am
My answer is still the same.
Any time a circumstance forces a radical, and uncomfortable change in the routine behavior of a person, the desire to continue in the familiar pattern overwhelms the rationality of adopting the new one, to the point where the person will start to harbor mistaken notions that the circumstance is a farce, "A Lie", "A Hoax"--- so that they can then deny that circumstance, and resume their normal, comfortable routine. Those harbored notions may erupt into full-on denial, and that happens pretty regularly.
See for instance, Climate Change. There is a dangerous reality that global atmospheric CO2 concentration is nearly as high now, as it was when there was constant volcanism in the age of the dinosaurs, when the average global temperature was balmy and hot all over. That reality demands that people stop excessive energy consumption, stop driving big, loud land yachts, use less plastic, actually recycle their trash, etc... But that means not driving a land yacht that goes VROOM and makes them feel powerful, it means not burning electricity on things that are familiar and comfortable (like edison style lightbulbs), it means not just tossing any old thing in the trash, like they used to.
And of course, the biggest argument is that "It's a LIE!"
Same basic trend here- COVID is a dangerous reality that if you go outside and rub elbows with people indiscriminately, you run a substantial risk of getting yourself and other people killed via a highly infectious disease. That means you dont get to go to the pub. It means you dont go out for pizza. It means you dont go to the movies, or the park. It means you stay indoors, and avoid socialization.
People don't want that reality. They want the reality where they could do all those things freely without consequences. As such, like with climate change-- "It's a LIE!"
Throwing gasoline onto that fire, are demographics like the GOP here in the US, that bolster those dangerous behaviors, because retaining the status quo of what WAS, is what makes them (and their real constituency) wealthy.
EG-- Keep those gas guzzlers-- dont switch to a Tesla, or use less plastic--- The automotive and petrochemical industries (that we are heavily invested in, but shhhhhhh) need your business! It's totally OK to disregard the scientists-- there's "Lack of consensus", and "Their models are faulty." (as demonstrated by our "totally legit, nothing to see here while I pass this bag of money under the table " "scientists" who made the dissenting papers. They are totally legit! Keep spending! It's OK! Honest!)
OR, in the more modern version--
"Go to the beaches, Reopen the economies-- Contagion rate is down! We "Flattened the curve" so its all good now! Those things the CDC and WHO said are a bunch of BS! Trust us! It's OK!"
Denial of harsh, unwanted realities is one of the major coping strategies humans attempt to employ when placed under stress or duress. It is a psychological defense mechanism-- The sense of personal identity is threatened by the required change in behavior demanded by the reality. EG-- for the social butterflies out there, the imposed isolation of COVID is a direct attack on a core feature of their individual psyche. How a person will respond to that varies, but denial is a very common one.
https://www.verywellmind.com/defense-mechanisms-2795960
It is also a very toxic and dangerous one, with real consequences for other people. This is why it should not be pandered to for purely political reasons, but politicians seem to be straight up psychopaths more often than not-- and are only too eager to exploit whatever hot-button they can use to stay empowered.
See also, Trump and his non-stop deluge of literal bold-faced lies about COVID, and his attempts to discredit Fauci, right at the end of an election year.
Post by: dragdeler on July 15, 2020, 05:40:26 am
Post by: Starver on July 15, 2020, 05:55:55 am
Post by: dragdeler on July 15, 2020, 06:03:47 am
Post by: wierd on July 15, 2020, 06:14:46 am
Yeah, the models were doomy and gloomy in the 70s, and have stayed there-- but the doom is already here. The clathrate gun (https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/global-change-debates/Sources/Methane-Clathrate-gun-hypothesis/1-Clathrate%20gun%20hypothesis-Wikipedia.pdf) fired bruh.
Post by: dragdeler on July 15, 2020, 06:54:55 am
Post by: feelotraveller on July 15, 2020, 11:23:24 am
Post by: kaijyuu on July 15, 2020, 11:45:05 am
Trust science over politicians, people.
Post by: Starver on July 15, 2020, 12:06:19 pm
I think it was in the '70s when there were serious scientific thoughts about Global Cooling, and science (as it is wont do do, and quite rightly) has absorbed new data about causes and effects since then. One celsius degree[2] of change is bad enough and some of the "what happens if that happens" predictions aren't yet so bad as imagined, while other (unanticipated?) things actually are worse.
Global 'Warming' was a while ago looked to being rebranded as 'Global Weirding' given the extremes flucuate all over the place (the other year, Trump regurgitated the old "If the Earth is warming, why so much snow this winter?" deflection and/or misunderstanding), but it seems not to have stuck. (@ninja: yep, "Change" seems to be the current word, but more rapid "Weather Oscillation" around a tenuous and moving climate-median is possibly more obvious day-to-day.)
Note that proteins happily live at "body temperature" (though some of them may start to break down/malfunction at "high fever" temperatures, in human terms, and looking at all creatures that are endothermic, ectothermic or mesothermic across various differing climes might have a differently tailored suite of inbuilt tolerances, both upper and lower) so until it becomes sufficiently close to that to overcome inbuilt physiological dumping of your core generation of heat (and externalised strategies like finding a handy mud-wallow to bathe in) you can probably only suffer insofar as comfort, rather than literal cooking. One degree of external temperature shift tends to be manageable on the biological level unless you are already at the edge of your range/cannot dynamically adjust (e.g. cloud-forest clouds "lifting off" the last few hilltops that had become 'island refuges' for the creatures who used to live in the misty valleys between).
Glaciers have been notably in retreat since the 1850s (after a few centuries of cooler times, that may have extended them a little, but still warmer than seen in much of the earlier parts of human history), with a hiatus/small (re)reversal in the mid-to-mid-late C20th, and by now it's looking like a number may have been 'extinguished' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850) and the trend is not looking like it'll slow down anytime soon (https://xkcd.com/1732/), to a degree[3] it's hard to find precedence for.
But that's well off Covid business.
[1] Well, he was religious, at least as much as needed to be a Curate, but his Trap/Spectre was more a secular study, given the times.
[2] i.e not "one degree celsius", which is technically a point rather than a shift. e.g. 18°C ± 1C° = 17-19°C, as what should be the typical usage, though people don't realise that.
[3] Or "to a rate of degrees"? ;)
Post by: Starver on July 15, 2020, 12:20:54 pm
Yet another cautionary tale. (https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/07/15/transphobia-donald-trump-anti-masker-richard-rose-coronavirus-pandemic-death/)(Ouch. PinkNews site is another of those places that seem to overload with scripting/redirection. I kept on finding myself completely different articles every time I tried to accept its cookie-policy, and only one full-quit of my browser. Got there eventually, though. Didn't mind reading the other stuff, but most News sites do this. And almost every 'news' site, I find. Just sayin'.)
Post by: kaijyuu on July 15, 2020, 02:12:39 pm
That article calls him transphobic, but never elaborates where or how, though.He reposted various transphobic memes.
It's just an excuse to put him there though; the site sometimes grabs for straws to put up eye catching articles. There are tons of other transphobes but they didn't die in a newsworthy way.
Post by: Starver on July 15, 2020, 04:08:21 pm
But then that "long time" stretches way back before Lockdown. Oh, and I suppose I talked a lot to the man behind me in the (two hour) queue for the barber, a couple of weeks ago, so maybe that's the main factor.
As to cheese the size of a large paperback, that'd last me two or three days, if I don't hold back.
Post by: nenjin on July 15, 2020, 04:10:55 pm
I had a similar conversation with a grocery store cashier a few months ago. "Things will never be normal again" he fretted. And my response was "No, this is the new normal. A year ago we didn't live in a world where this could happen. Now we do."
G'damn though. I'm still amazed at the number of people at the grocery store no longer wearing masks. (I wear mine at the grocery store but that's pretty much the only place I do, because it's the only place I'm in an enclosed space with more than 5 people.) What also gets me is sheer inconsistency of it. I regularly see families where the kids are wearing masks and the parents aren't, or the parents are wearing masks and the kids aren't. People with their masks off under their noses. People who have masks, but are dining in at a restaurant with their masks around their necks. People who have masks, and decide to sit around in a coffee shop NOT WEARING THEM.
It's like, do people just not fucking understand how this works? If you're a "Covid is a scam" mouthbreather, at least you're internally and externally consistent with your beliefs and actions, stupid and destructive though they may be. But if you're wearing the mask to go in to a place.....maybe take your food to go? Otherwise what is the goddamn point of it?
Maybe this is the Great Annihilation, where nature has decided to weed out people that truly don't give a fuck.
Part of me has to wonder what Asians in big cities think of the US attitude toward covid and mask wearing. Wearing masks has been a thing for them for decades.
Post by: Greiger on July 15, 2020, 05:29:46 pm
This might be old news but I just learned that because of Florida's spike in cases we will no longer be sending our tests to the CDC at all, and are instead sending them for Washington D.C. to run. EDIT: You know, from a government run organisation with at least a tangential interest in public health, to a group operated by a known liar who has a clear interest in making sure the information is obscured? EDIT2: Ok seems thats everywhere, not just Florida. Welp looks like Trump is making good on his promise that the coronavirus will just disappear. Probably going to have the most lethal flu season ever though.
Why does this feel like its being done to allow the data to be faked? Because it feels like data is going to be faked.
Post by: Dostoevsky on July 15, 2020, 08:38:01 pm
Probably just reinforces the stereotype of americans being stubborn, stupid, and only caring about themselves.
This might be old news but I just learned that because of Florida's spike in cases we will no longer be sending our tests to the CDC at all, and are instead sending them for Washington D.C. to run. EDIT: You know, from a government run organisation with at least a tangential interest in public health, to a group operated by a known liar who has a clear interest in making sure the information is obscured? EDIT2: Ok seems thats everywhere, not just Florida. Welp looks like Trump is making good on his promise that the coronavirus will just disappear. Probably going to have the most lethal flu season ever though.
Why does this feel like its being done to allow the data to be faked? Because it feels like data is going to be faked.
For those who haven't seen this story, the White House wants the data to go to just HHS now and cut out CDC. But CDC will supposedly have some sort of access? The whole thing stinks of something, but the press reporting at least is that this stems from a blame game between hospitals and HHS over who's screwing up certain data collection efforts. WH says hospitals aren't sending it in enough/properly, while hospitals say HHS is getting it largely fine but screwing it up internally. I'm... not sure what about that translates into it making sense to cut CDC out.
One of the weirder parts of this shift is the 'suggestion' (reportedly an order in earlier drafts, before being reminded they can't exactly do that) that national guard be deployed to hospitals. To do medical data entry jobs.
Is it intimidation? (Hospital industry folks initially getting told this interpreted it that way.) Is it the flailing idea of "war on X" mentality taken to its literal conclusions? Is it an awkward attempt at good PR?
Internal WH people reportedly noted that this wasn't exactly standard guardsman training and could just end up making new disease vectors. We'll see, eh?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 15, 2020, 09:10:29 pm
Quote
One of the weirder parts of this shift is the 'suggestion' (reportedly an order in earlier drafts, before being reminded they can't exactly do that) that national guard be deployed to hospitals. To do medical data entry jobs.
It does sound like someone has a harebrained idea to try to cover up the size of the mess.
Someone who has no idea on how hospital records, or data reports, work. This is not a top secret single copy affair. It can´t be. It will be data mining from many other reports. Even if they manage to commandeer that one, and bully the hospitals into not publishing their own reports, there will be medical teams and single doctors doing their own papers and audits on what is happening. Short of declaring it an official state secret and jailing anyone who writes up anything of this (and maybe even then) it´s coming up. ANd if they did that it would be an open admission to a coverup.
Post by: Dostoevsky on July 16, 2020, 12:23:50 am
It does sound like someone has a harebrained idea to try to cover up the size of the mess.
Yeah, that was the angle I was glossing over because it's just so ridiculous. But hey, maybe someone over there had this crazy idea that maybe if they just took control of the data entry process at the source they could make this all go away?
There are so many problems with the idea I just can't wrap my ahead around the idea of somebody (somebody not Trump, at least) actually thinking that sort of cockamamie notion could work.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 16, 2020, 12:45:59 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 16, 2020, 12:54:04 am
Maybe this is the Great Annihilation, where nature has decided to weed out people that truly don't give a fuck.Everybody is saying it, folks! They're all talking about the Great Annihilation, which is just beautiful, more and more every day!
There are so many problems with the idea I just can't wrap my ahead around the idea of somebody (somebody not Trump, at least) actually thinking that sort of cockamamie notion could work.People believe what they need to believe. For Trumpists, that means straight-up believing covid doesn't fucking real. For libs, that means believing they can convince capitalists to solve covid by asking nicely. I will grant the libs that not 100% of the capitalist class are space alien logic totally-divorced-from-physical-reality insane death worshipers, so it's a better plan than the Trumpist one. However, that IMF Master of Flame portion of the capitalist class rarely appreciates Trump, so he can't exactly make use of their endorsement.
For an examination of this, search "Bill Gates" on any right-wing forum. God help you.
Regardless of how much he believes in it, Trump's plan isn't totally unworkable. It's insane, but not unworkable. The idea is simple enough - force everybody to stop paying attention to covid. People get sick and die in America every day, who cares? I can tell you with certainty that the most baffling thing about all this to conservatives is that anyone cares to begin with, and that is what drives a lot of the conspiratorial thought.
So Trump does everything in his power to force the schools to open as normal, convince the governors to not take any measures, and most importantly of all get control of the data and testing facilities. Then he tells his people to tell Fox News' people that if they ever run a story on covid again that isn't about how the numbers are plummeting thanks to Trump's leadership that he'll have their children sold to pedophiles, and Trump instructs his followers that America Has Won The War, no thanks to Creepy Joe!
Then, in theory anyway, Trump's approval rating shoots up to 65%, the GOP rigs the election on top of that for good measure, and we march forth into the Great Annihilation with smiles on our faces and proud patriotism in our hearts. God Bless America.
Unrelated, but does anyone know a good text representation for the sound of a pneumatic bolt gun?
Anyway, I don't know if this grand plan has any chance of working. People in this country are so fucking arbitrary about everything, but they seem to arbitrarily hate Trump for covid right now, and so I doubt either I or him could predict if they'll get over it if people are told to stop talking about it. They did sort of try that a month ago and it got us to here. Personally, if I were Trump I'd pivot to racist populism and pass a covid heathcare bill, but Mitch might have him executed for that even if he's smart enough to think of it.
Post by: Dostoevsky on July 16, 2020, 01:12:48 am
Assuming then that enough governors (swing states being a bonus, I guess) follow that order and volunteer guardsmen and commanders actually follow that sort of order (or manage to muck up the admittedly pretty tricky job just right, I guess), I suppose it could create a path to lower statistics and more forgetfulness?
It's, uh, sort of workable I guess. If the recorded deaths are now only in states/areas that 'most people' hate/dislike, then it could sort of work in the right sort of world.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 16, 2020, 01:19:36 am
It still sounds like a stupid idea mind you. It only takes junior docs doing posters or audits and the whole scheme falls down.
Post by: Dostoevsky on July 16, 2020, 01:24:03 am
Post by: wierd on July 16, 2020, 01:56:49 am
The general public is divided between "bunker down" and "It's a HOAX!(tm), A Gameshow host said so!", and the government has been the most mealy-mouthed, pandering to money over human life, and denial of objective reality it can possibly be during an emergency.
Why can't more people be like me, and just plant a garden in the back yard, get a pressure cooker and some mason jars, and get supplies together to grow some winter crops indoors (like my mushroom operation, which is doing fairly well so far), so that this winter, when shit gets REALLY *REAL*, they can still continue to isolate? Why do people panic, instead of taking a calm breath, collecting their thoughts, and formulating a strategic plan for themselves?
At the worst, my plan will have me stuck with some home-made canned goods. Woo. So much terror. (Well, absolute worst is that my garden wont be productive enough, which is what is happening right now. I intend to fix that with a small stockpile of commercial canned products sometime soon. The mushrooms and other indoor grown crops will supplement.) Even people who do not have a yard can potentially grow oyster mushrooms. All you need really is some 3% peroxide, an aquarium, shredded cardboard, and some fresh oyster mushrooms from the store. Other things that can grow indoors are tomatoes, herbs of various kinds, (and if you have good grow lights) green beans, peas, and black beans. Just use a kiddie pool as a protective aid for your floor, and put large pot planters inside it. Set up some lights in the room. Walmart has LED strip lights that make white light, that are light enough to stick to walls with non-damaging velcro.
I really hate the learned helplessness people have. There are ways to handle even the worst possible outcomes of this, if you plan for it. Have a good supply of paracetamol (Acetaminophen, aka, Tylenol) on hand, etc. It's not the end of the world as we know it, unless you MAKE it be such.
Edit:
You know what, I am gonna make a thread about this. (Winter prepping)
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 16, 2020, 02:47:51 am
Why can't more people be like me
You're one of the most incredibly rational people I've ever met wierd, I really wish I could be like you. I'm so attached to my subjectivity and emotional baggage, it'd be awesome if I could just be as lucid and objective as you are seemingly every day.
And I'm TRYING to be, so I can only imagine how difficult objectivity must be to people that consider their emotions to be the only legitimate evidence for every decision they make big and small.
Post by: dragdeler on July 16, 2020, 07:54:01 am
Post by: kaijyuu on July 16, 2020, 09:31:55 am
Post by: Iduno on July 16, 2020, 09:39:12 am
While I agree, I'll just light a small candle for all those, what was it? 61% of americans that can't afford a 1000$ emergency.
Over a third aren't keeping up with housing (including apartment) payments right now. It's been a known problem for a long time, but "Profits!" and other bogeymen are good enough to get a lot of people to just ignore problems.
Probably just reinforces the stereotype of americans being stubborn, stupid, and only caring about themselves.
For good reason.
Why does this feel like its being done to allow the data to be faked? Because it feels like data is going to be faked.
Once states started saying out loud that they weren't going to record cause of death, or wouldn't test regularly, we all knew they intended to lie. There have been times when I personally knew more COVID victims than they were admitting to around here.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 16, 2020, 01:12:50 pm
Masks were made mandatory in all places yesterday. I hope we see that making a difference next week
Post by: misko27 on July 16, 2020, 01:46:47 pm
It's what keeps me anxious about my own state, in spite of how things seem to have stabilized here: if we've made a mistake, it takes so damn long to see it reflected in the numbers. My impression of the mood here is "delay anything as long as you think we need to, but please don't have to lockdown again. "
Post by: Zangi on July 16, 2020, 02:12:30 pm
Georgia doing it’s part in keeping Covid19 strong for the school season.
God Bless America.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 16, 2020, 02:13:36 pm
Post by: Starver on July 16, 2020, 02:45:11 pm
I mean, when we slammed the Lockdown on, we'd had schools and colleges reacting a week or two before, even the Football League ("not a matter of Life Or Death, it's far more important than that")[1] had blown the whistle to stop play. But the sudden "Ok, we're locked down, tomorrow", seemed to be as if the driving-test guy had tapped the dashboard for an emergency stop (where "key wheels" were allowed to keep rolling forwards) and now he's almost tapping the dashboard to tell us that we now need to start looking in the mirrors (like they weren't too bothered about, before), now that we're actually merging back into traffic from a quiet sideroad we did our three-point-turn on.
[1] I'm not a football person, but it is obvious to me that this is not a small decision. My 'own' sport (a distinct subsection of a multifaceted recreation) is an inherently socially-distancing activity, during the event, and not even a huge spectator-puller, by most standards, but the national governing body still had pulled the season and by now is only just starting to allow participation to renew but with revamps to remove the 'HQ' gathering/reconvening and keep officials and competitors alike sufficiently separate from each other out to before arriving and after leaving. You even bring your own pen to Sign On/Off on the paperwork! Despite (or because of) this, at District level we've advised at least one major event that we cannot accept their going ahead, and most of the ones scheduled before autumn have been pulled/not-reinstated by their organisers, with various ones after that either undecided or not publicly decided upon but probably going to call off.
Post by: feelotraveller on July 17, 2020, 05:47:07 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-17/act-conspiracy-theory-coronavirus-letter-delivered-to-canberrans/12465162 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-17/act-conspiracy-theory-coronavirus-letter-delivered-to-canberrans/12465162)
Post by: wierd on July 17, 2020, 06:09:22 pm
Just.. Just wow.
I see AU is on course to rival US in terms of crackpot potency.
Post by: Starver on July 17, 2020, 06:18:07 pm
Spoiler: Maybe... (click to show/hide)
Thus, unlike in the US, we aren't (expecting to be) voting any time soon. But even in the midst of the Pandemic, we're obviously being geared up to do the early-2021 Brexity thing (the thing the early-2020 Brexity thing set up to happen), and for that we need not to look like the film 28 Days Later is happening for real (even if it means that in trying not to look like it, we actually end up more like it than we needed to), to get the 'best' out of things. I think some of those in charge (behind the scenes) would have prefered the (in-universe hoped-for) Edge Of Tomorrow template of Europe being over-run, where we just need to prove we have the wherewithall to re-enact D-Day and save the day, generously allowing the Yanks to tag along and give them a purpose in life or something...
(Though, at one point, it looked more like Day Of The Triffids was the model, where the Isle Of White was going to be the start of the global fight back against the menace, but with surveillance and smartphones instead of surveillance and flame-throwers.)
Post by: Starver on July 17, 2020, 06:50:39 pm
Instead of WW2/D-Day, it seems it's WW1/"It'll all be over by Christmas" (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53441912)... Call me a pessimist[1], but I doubt it.
[1] As if you're going to be so kind to only call me that(!)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 19, 2020, 03:25:49 pm
Post by: Rockeater on July 19, 2020, 03:46:51 pm
Post by: ZBridges on July 19, 2020, 03:52:19 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 19, 2020, 03:56:53 pm
Post by: Iduno on July 19, 2020, 03:58:15 pm
Does this mean we would need shots every month or possibly every week?
Nah, but boosters every 3 months means most people won't do it, even if they could somehow afford to. We're looking at more of a permanent thing now. Assuming the reinfection thing is real.
Post by: ZBridges on July 19, 2020, 04:06:50 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 19, 2020, 04:09:36 pm
Does this mean we would need shots every month or possibly every week?
Nah, but boosters every 3 months means most people won't do it, even if they could somehow afford to. We're looking at more of a permanent thing now. Assuming the reinfection thing is real.
That’s only really a problem in countries that charge for healthcare or have significant anti-vac movements.
Post by: martinuzz on July 19, 2020, 04:41:31 pm
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH- (https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550)
Quote
The doctor “tested positive again because she has remnants of her first virus still floating around in her body,” a hospital spokesperson told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.Starting to look like this virus shares traits with HIV, in that it can hide itself from the immune system (and tests) in the body. As in, once you got it, you're a carrier for life.
The doctor suffered from fever, cough and muscle pain when she tested positive for the virus in April, but she recovered and tested negative in May and June.
Depends how sick you get from the vaccine itself. Not everyone can afford to call in sick for a week every 3 months / not every boss will be very understanding and not fire you.Does this mean we would need shots every month or possibly every week?
Nah, but boosters every 3 months means most people won't do it, even if they could somehow afford to. We're looking at more of a permanent thing now. Assuming the reinfection thing is real.
That’s only really a problem in countries that charge for healthcare or have significant anti-vac movements.
Post by: ZBridges on July 19, 2020, 04:53:52 pm
Post by: martinuzz on July 19, 2020, 04:57:52 pm
Post by: Starver on July 19, 2020, 05:25:11 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 19, 2020, 06:16:51 pm
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH- (https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550)QuoteThe doctor “tested positive again because she has remnants of her first virus still floating around in her body,” a hospital spokesperson told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday.Starting to look like this virus shares traits with HIV, in that it can hide itself from the immune system (and tests) in the body. As in, once you got it, you're a carrier for life.
The doctor suffered from fever, cough and muscle pain when she tested positive for the virus in April, but she recovered and tested negative in May and June.
No. If that's really why this guy has tested positive it's dna remnant shedding from infected tissues as they regenerare. Nothing to do with HIV or viral persistence. This was actually described weeks//months ago, I think I could dig out the links to the papers from my twitter account....
If it's a reinfection its a whole different animal but if reinfection is possible and it's frequent we ought to see a lot of it in the next few weeks as wave #2 hits. So time will tell
Post by: delphonso on July 19, 2020, 06:29:53 pm
So Heliconian. But is it Bone Fever or Fat Death?
Nice.
Post by: nenjin on July 20, 2020, 10:08:28 am
Meanwhile our Republican governor is trying to find legal precedent that our mayor can't do this, because Pete Ricketts is a fucking moron.
Post by: misko27 on July 20, 2020, 10:19:52 am
Post by: dragdeler on July 20, 2020, 10:23:14 am
Post by: Starver on July 20, 2020, 12:04:28 pm
Seriously: things I'm seeing, aside from the stupid "breathing your own oxygen is dangerous"[1] is "I don't want to be compelled". I think it was Cowboys For Trump who said that they're happy if businesses could individually choose whether or not to require masks for patrons... and then CFT would choose to not use those businesses that do. Didn't seem funny enough to be a parody, so I'm putting it down just to confirmed stupidity/Trumpite-contrarianism.
Now, I've got some sympathy for "not wanting to be compelled". There are things (safety-related, but not in a Covid-sense[2]) that I'm not too keen on being compelling. I can see the similarities, and how someone might think my reticence in this other matter is as foolhardy (including my reasoning of "but by dealing with that big but rare risk, you introduce a slighter but more constant danger" bit).
But I can't help feeling that if there was an EO by Trump to wear a mask (red, MAGA masks; made in China; all profits, after over-generous government subsidies are applied, piped straight into the Campaign to Unelect Non-Trumpists fund) they'd only have problems with those who question its rather dubious legality/application. That is the obvious problem, and not alleged over-reach.
[1] Pretty much as it was said. Apparently it's dangerous to breath oxygen you have just breathed out (sic, sic, and sic again!), but obviously people with the virus should wear masks (in token nod to reality, before you wonder if it's dangerous to breath in your own viral cloud again). A very special opinion, that one.
[2] Maybe some things I've already said about masks look like I'm in that camp too (without checking, I know what my attitude has been and it all depends on how I voiced it in words how I might look) but I've never been a "I know my real rights, no so-called 'law' is going to make me wear a mask" person, where it conflicts with my self-assessed risk-matrix.
Post by: nenjin on July 20, 2020, 12:12:46 pm
I'd love to see the timeline where Trump signs an EO to wear masks though. That would be fascinating.
Post by: dragdeler on July 20, 2020, 12:22:46 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 20, 2020, 12:29:48 pm
Since in order to test for CO2 you have to do invasive procedures, it is far less likely that someone will do a video rebuttal.
Btw: the respiratory system is far better at shedding CO2 than intaking oxygen. If your oxygen levels are OK chances are your CO2 levels will be, too
Post by: Eschar on July 20, 2020, 12:48:24 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 20, 2020, 12:53:17 pm
That's the process conservatives have in place of the scientific method, shouting out statements and getting "yeah!" shouted back across the dinner table. The libs just sulk silently when you do that and as such must be enemies of the state.
Post by: dragdeler on July 20, 2020, 12:55:54 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 20, 2020, 01:05:02 pm
It might explain the slight discomfort, if CO2 is higher than usual your brain might quickly interprete that it's worse than it actually is.CO2 wont be higher than usual. Its bullshit
Post by: kaijyuu on July 20, 2020, 02:45:39 pm
Post by: Starver on July 20, 2020, 04:39:35 pm
...
When walking out and about and crossing paths with others at the side of the road, if I can't easily step off into the road as (self-serving?) courtesy because of a vehicle - and odds are that I am alone and they are multiple, so it is always the lesser fuss that I do this - then I find myself holding my breath as I give the habitual smile and nod that passes for the absolute minimum greeting I'm prepared to give such a random encounter.
I do this consciously but not deliberately, and I thought about it enough already to benchmark it. It starts about 10 quick paces from the crossing (so ~20 paces or so of initial separation as we converge), and if sufficient reason arises to advance past smile[1] and nod, and furthermore also some gesture of the hand (though that'd be more for cross-street greetings).
I am left untroubled in releasing my held breath to utter a few words, nor does it trouble my conscience to go against my prior precautions. Though if I do speak, I then do not continue and re-inhale until beyond the encounter, and if I do not I cycle my whole lungs only at that point.
In doing so, I'm doubtless subjecting myself to a degree of anoxia far greater than anything any cloth or other particulate-filtering mask does, for the same amount of time. I have reason to believe I've got good lungs on me, though maybe not as good as in my prime, so perhaps I'm just more resilient to transitory events[2]. Or maybe someone is confusing masks with plastic bags.
[1] Not wearing a mask at all in the open air, as I think I explained before.
[2] As I type this, no effort like walking involved, or even standing up, just tap, tap tapping away, I can use the clock in the corner of the screen and easily hold a deep breath from one minute changing until well after the next one does. Longer if I start to let loose a measured exhale as it 'feels' bad, and beginning with a more sensible preparation than on the spur of the moment gives me beyond double the original time.
Post by: misko27 on July 20, 2020, 05:51:52 pm
Only C02 connection here is that it is indeed really fucking hot, and masks are pretty damn warm.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 20, 2020, 06:13:56 pm
Post by: Reelya on July 20, 2020, 07:43:37 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/face-masks-priceline-sells-face-mask-for-249-amid-victoria-restrictions/news-story/41c76152f2231857472d44c181b3325c
However, what they omit to mention though you can see it in the pictures is that it's for a box of 50 KN95 type masks. Because they wrote "face mask" as singular in the headline they can't really say here that it was an interpretation issue.
EDIT: it looks like they actually changed the headline since that story was posted. I guess they got complaints about how clickbaity it was. but notice that they added the 50 in but didn't actually pluralize the word masks. Now the headline is "Priceline sells 50 face mask for $249 amid Victoria restrictions", which still hints back to the original headline.
Post by: Starver on July 21, 2020, 05:32:34 am
I'd love to see the timeline where Trump signs an EO to wear masks though. That would be fascinating.
Surprisingly close: https://mobile.twitter.com/James78141017/status/1285407125989031936
(Link is typical Trumpite responder, shocked to see a mask 'recomendation' but generously "still supportive". No parody involved, SFAICT, though maybe some bottedness. Plenty of other examples of this, and denialists even accusing him of selling out to the 'common cold'/etc, if you go back up to Trump's level and look for other replies.)
Post by: Zangi on July 21, 2020, 06:41:53 am
Post by: Iduno on July 21, 2020, 08:19:14 am
Huh, Kevin Sorbo(Hercules) is deep red conspiracist.
Yeah, he was a sexist shitbag back when Hercules and Xena were on TV. No real surprise he still is.
Post by: nenjin on July 21, 2020, 01:40:57 pm
Friend sends me a video. It's some chick saying the following:
"We're being scammed by the hospitals and the media. Go to Google and type in any random 3 digit number + new cases. You'll find a result for every number no matter what."
Let's break this down:
The implication is that it's a conspiracy between Google and the media to generate false stories about covid. In order for that work, Google would have to create pages, dynamically, on hundreds of websites, with a byline and a contributor's name.
It couldn't POSSIBLY be that over a 5 month time frame, with hundred and hundreds of counties in every state reporting cases, that conceivably most numbers will show up in a google search. Most telling was that this bitch didn't READ anything other than the results, she just kept googling more crap.
Every news agency and county health department, hospital administrator, hospital staff recording data, would have to be on it.
It's like....when 9/11 happened and people asserted it was a conspiracy, the skeptics rightly laid out aalllllll the things that would have to happen, how many people would have to be involved in said conspiracy for it to actually work.
And that's just the fucking US! No, now it's a GLOBAL CONSPIRASERZ, they'll all in on it. Everyone, everywhere. You know what they call that in medicine? Paranoid delusions.
What's most galling is the people who claim they're being manipulated ARE being manipulated...just not be the people they think or in the method they think it's happening, or for the reasons they think it's happening.
Where the fuck did people's critical thinking skills go? Goddamnit, social media and the internet have completely neutered the average person's ability to actually use their brains.
And yet when the White House tries to centralize all this data so it can be manipulated.....oh, suddenly, that's acceptable. We go from this completely unrealistic global conspiracy that can't even survive under its own proposed weight.....to a small handful of people manipulating the data, and that is somehow less suspicious.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 21, 2020, 02:08:31 pm
Where the fuck did people's critical thinking skills go?
The same place school budgets and curriculum went. The garbage.
Post by: Telgin on July 21, 2020, 02:44:44 pm
Much like those around here who think the government cannot do anything right, so why do we give it any power to do anything, yet think it's able to keep these grand and intricate conspiracies in check somehow.
And some are so bizarre. Why did Bill Gates suddenly start showing up in conspiracies about injecting people with The Mark of the Beast through COVID-19 vaccines? Or that the government is going to institute socialism by reclaiming all of our coins, which is the current cause of the coin shortage?
Post by: nenjin on July 21, 2020, 03:14:02 pm
Post by: Starver on July 21, 2020, 03:21:12 pm
Separate talk was had of Digital Certificates to handle such logistics, where there's already a central infrastructure that they can be integrated with. And I think China implemented this, QR codes you could present on your smartphone at checkpoints, ostensibly less privacy-destroying than any other method of 'passporting' individuals, especially for China.
I believe it was a (typically) spurious remark by Alex Jones or someone of his ilk that first claimed "injectable microchips", formed out of whole-cloth from his own disconnected-from-reality imagination, which then of course became "RFID nanochips floating in your bloodstream... You know, like the metal strips in banknotes that can be scanned from a block away..." or similar.
Post by: McTraveller on July 21, 2020, 03:21:48 pm
It's not causal, just descriptive, but it fits.
Post by: kaijyuu on July 21, 2020, 03:57:10 pm
Are they assuming the conspirators are competent? If yes, it's bogus.
All real-life "conspiracies" are covering up people's incompetence and petty corruption. All the leaked data from intelligence agencies points to idiots with lots of money flailing in the dark.
Post by: Starver on July 21, 2020, 04:10:16 pm
(Actually, that's probably true every-which-way...)
Post by: TamerVirus on July 21, 2020, 04:34:30 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on July 21, 2020, 04:40:47 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hze6Ky0cgcQ
yaaay I guess
Post by: Bumber on July 21, 2020, 06:34:05 pm
Huh, Kevin Sorbo(Hercules) is deep red conspiracist.
Maybe this isn't his world.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on July 21, 2020, 06:46:59 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 21, 2020, 06:54:19 pm
Donald Trump said people should take the pandemic seriously and wear a mask and social distance and wash their hands
:o
Only took him half a year, 4m cases and almost 150k deaths.
Post by: Greiger on July 21, 2020, 07:11:34 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hze6Ky0cgcQOh hey Leonard French. I should start watching him again. He was educational.
yaaay I guess
And of COURSE it was my home state of Florida. Why am I surprised at this point.
Post by: dragdeler on July 21, 2020, 07:44:43 pm
Post by: Starver on July 21, 2020, 07:50:10 pm
Donald Trump said people should take the pandemic seriously and wear a mask and social distance and wash their hand.
"Many people" are saying he sold them out/has been knobbled by the Deep State/he's doing 5he Gates's dirty work for them/etc...
Some of the more thoughtful are justifying it in a way they can ignore it:
Quote from: A tweet (https://mobile.twitter.com/Salty_Vinegar77/status/1285734657707913224)
That speech was not for us. If he doesn't pander to the sheep sometimes, he won't get reelected and then we'll be lost completely. He needs to play the game in order to stay the course for us.That there is a special kind of Special, if even sincere (which I fear it is, at just a single reading).
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 21, 2020, 07:59:16 pm
For example, a person with schizophrenia may sometimes hear voices, but it is up to them if they believe those voices are real (and "real" is not as binary a question as you might think). Now sure, it's probably a positive sign of their health if they firmly believe the voices are just something malfunctioning in their mind rather than the spirits of the angry dead, but they still have schizophrenia either way, because they're hearing the voices. And even if they do believe the voices are the spirits of the dead, it doesn't necessarily mean they're worse off.
Many people not suffering a relevant mental illness believe in magic, or lizard-people, or conspiracies. And some people with mental illness probably aggressively believe that the world is boring and nothing ever happens out of good order, which itself just loops back around to being conspiratorial since the world is full of chaos. Some of the people who believe in lizard-people are ill, but you can clearly discern them from people who believe in lizard-people and are not ill through their behavior.
Nor is illness proof that a conspiracy is false. MK-Ultra's victims had a lot of mental illness that was induced by the conspiracy itself...including one Ted Kaczynski. Yet this conspiracy was real.
Post by: Reelya on July 21, 2020, 09:48:27 pm
Where the fuck did people's critical thinking skills go? Goddamnit, social media and the internet have completely neutered the average person's ability to actually use their brains.
They didn't "go" anywhere. These people never had critical thinking skills. We're basically giving everyone a megaphone now and wondering why we hear stupid shit loudly. They've always been stupid, they just didn't have megaphones before.
When I was young, i talked to a lot of friends and acquaintances who had clearly mistaken beliefs. Eventually you learn to give up on that. When 90% of people you meet express identical misinformation, what are you going to do? And this was before the internet.
Post by: martinuzz on July 22, 2020, 04:53:33 am
(sober)Indeed I don't actually believe that medicalizing it is the right solution. I do however mean it when I say that conspiricy theories are becoming a real threat to rationalism.
I actually will not believe that you truely believe what you just said, thus concluding I'm venting back at vents, I should probably go look at a treeline for a week or something I'm very irritable.
I wish I had a solution for the exponential growth of misinformation.
Sadly, and luckily we cannot undo the internet.
What we can do is educate our children about the dangers of misinformation, and teach them about rationalism and empiricism before they lay eggs.
Re-educating those that are already far down the rabbit hole and that have already dug their heels in the sand, now that's hard.
EDIT: however, when people start believing in conspiracies that are actually harmful to other people around them, like saying that Covid is a hoax, or a jewish conspiracy... That needs to be dealt with, but I don't know if that should be handled by the justice system or by the psychiatric care system (not nescessarily with pills, think more like how there are programs to deprogram cult/sect victims).
What is more humane? Criminalization or medicalization?
Post by: ZBridges on July 22, 2020, 05:54:28 am
Post by: Starver on July 22, 2020, 05:58:00 am
Post by: dragdeler on July 22, 2020, 06:35:12 am
Post by: scriver on July 22, 2020, 07:33:04 am
How to tell the difference between a conspiracy theory and a plausible hypothesis:
Are they assuming the conspirators are competent? If yes, it's bogus.
All real-life "conspiracies" are covering up people's incompetence and petty corruption. All the leaked data from intelligence agencies points to idiots with lots of money flailing in the dark.
Have you heard of the light bulb conspiracy?
Post by: Frumple on July 22, 2020, 07:48:42 am
Post by: scriver on July 22, 2020, 08:02:04 am
Post by: TamerVirus on July 22, 2020, 08:18:56 am
This one (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel)You telling me that the crew behind the DF tileset is a lightbulb cartel?!?
Post by: Iduno on July 22, 2020, 09:42:04 am
This one (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel)You telling me that the crew behind the DF tileset is a lightbulb cartel?!?
Well, it was mostly GE and friends.
Post by: Reelya on July 22, 2020, 03:05:20 pm
This fact also questions the overall cost thing:
Quote
Some engineers deemed the life expectancy of 1,000 hours reasonable for most bulbs, and that a longer lifetime came at the expense of efficiency. Engineers argued that longer bulb life caused the increase of heat and decrease of light if bulbs lasted longer than 1,000 hours. They argued the result of wasted electricity. Long-life incandescent bulbs were available that lasted up to 2,500 hours. These were less energy-efficient, producing less light per watt.
So, it's not as cut and dried as they say. Incandescent bulbs were really cheap, and part of the agreement was lowering manufacturing costs and standardizing total lifetime. The electricity to run them costs a lot more. If it is true that the shorter-lived bulbs were more energy efficient, then it's not cut and dried that this was at the consumer's expense. It could be a win-win situation, in fact.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 22, 2020, 03:15:11 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 24, 2020, 12:15:15 am
I truly, truly hope that the harsh reality of medical work in triage conditions never gets publicly reported. People are paranoid are upset about fake stories like this, there'll be murders if they ever hear the real ones.
OH BOY
GUESS WHAT TIME IT IS
MOTHER, CAN I HAVE PRIVATIZED HEALTHCARE?
FOR CONSUMER FREEDOM?
Y-YES...
[ACTUALLY INSTITUTES DEATH PANELS LIKE A 2008 CAMPAIGN AD]
T R I A G E T I M E (https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article244443257.html)
And of course, it's falling on a county of mostly Latino people thanks to the actions of a white governor and mostly white anti-mask freaks. God fucking bless America.
Post by: Reelya on July 24, 2020, 01:06:50 am
If
There's no if. electricity right now here is 28 cents per kwh, so if you were running a 100 watt bulb, then for the 1000 hours it costs about 50 cents for the bulb and 2.8 * 1000 = $28 for the electricity for 1000 hours at that wattage. If they use lighter filaments, the bulbs burn out quicker but they also don't need as much total wattage to pass through them, so you can get a lower watt bulb but still get the same brightness. The cost of the bulb itself was a minuscule amount of the total cost to run it. 50 cents for the bulb over 1000 hours adds up to 0.05 cents per hour for the bulb compared to the 2.8 cents for the electricity. For am incandescent bulb to last twice as long you need a much heavier filament, which means you're pushing more juice through it for the same brightness. So, having the long-lasting bulbs would have been a false economy here, but people see the (tiny) physical expense while ignoring the much bigger expense of electricity, since you can see it and that's paid after the event. Everyone fixates on the physical bulbs here, and it makes almost no sense to do that.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 24, 2020, 01:59:48 am
To quote a more recent example, remember when apple was caught slowing down it's older telephones via updates? They too claimed they did it because they were concerned about their user's battery life and that this way older models would last longer. No word on why they didnt tell people they were doing it or made it optional. That time btw the post-hoc justification didnt fly
Post by: Reelya on July 24, 2020, 02:03:35 am
As for the economics, the light bulb companies are damn straight making far more profits off the new $5 fluorescent low-energy-use bulbs than they ever were off the 50 cent low-efficiency bulbs. The real beneficiaries of the old ones were the electric companies. Nobody ever has a conspiracy theory that the light bulb companies were behind getting the old ones banned, even though they vastly profited off that in the long run. Everyone has to switch out their old bulbs to new ones that costs 10 times as much? Who do you think benefited the most from that?
Post by: Frumple on July 24, 2020, 05:21:28 am
As for the economics, the light bulb companies are damn straight making far more profits off the new $5 fluorescent low-energy-use bulbs than they ever were off the 50 cent low-efficiency bulbs.Are they, though? Back when they didn't have those things I'd regularly see my household burn through a pack or two of the cheap bulbs per year on the low end. With the newer ones, it's been actual years, plural, instead of a few months or whatever between replacements. Haven't made the effort to actively track it, but doing most of the domestic shopping these days and having been along for the ride for most of it in yesteryear, I'm pretty sure the households I've been a part of have been spending less on lightbulbs even as they pay more per individual bulb, and that even discounting inflation.
Light bulb companies might be making profit these days, but if the margins have substantially increased I'm pretty doubtful it's because of increased costs for the consumer. Far as I've noticed we're actually paying less on lightbulb replacement, at the moment.
Post by: Starver on July 24, 2020, 08:20:23 am
Then I started replacing with the 'low energy' replacements, the early generation that were slow to start. I still have mostly those. I've had maybe three fail for 'lifetime' reasons since then (none have needed the RCD resetting on the given fusebox circuit, when they did) and I had to replace some when I had an upstairs water leak that seeped down (there was water sloshing inside. the 'bulb' diffuser - while no power was there of course! - and I decided to still not use them, even once they'd been dried out), the latter happened once LED 'direct incandescent replacements' had arrived on the market, the former not quite (or not yet looking worth the bleeding-edge premium of the time?).
Shuffled around, to get LEDs where they'd be better than the early generation ones, I've not had any further failures. Years. Maybe >decade? In this one room, that's ~15x1000h of accumulated use for every hour of average use per day. Let's say it's 3hr/evening, I'd expect at least one failure from a weak (and likely >10yo) 'new' bulb, from chance, looking at current (not contemporary) estimates of lifetimes, though the current sole LED in the room might drag it out much longer.
What thread is this again?
Post by: McTraveller on July 24, 2020, 03:01:02 pm
(https://i.imgur.com/oidblEi.png)
I feel like there is some other statistic that's missing here; that really sharp change in slope around 60k total cases seems unusual; the only obvious thing is that 60k cases was right when the most severe restrictions were lifted, but I would have expected the curve to not have that slope change.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 24, 2020, 03:03:54 pm
Post by: Iduno on July 24, 2020, 03:14:47 pm
Post by: McTraveller on July 24, 2020, 03:29:44 pm
I'm pretty sure one of the reasons the second wave is less lethal is because the most at risk population (nursing homed) were already massacred in round 1That was one of my thoughts - have we ever had such detailed records of how a pandemic evolves per demographic group as with this one, where it wipes out the at risk first, then just has lots and lots of cases after that but with less mortality?
I mean we kind of know this, but the modern ability to watch it in realtime is... sobering.
Related question on excess deaths statistic: How long do we have to gather data to know if these are "pull ahead" deaths versus true "excess" deaths? What I mean is - if they are pull-ahead deaths, we will have high excess deaths now, but in the future you'd have a lower-than-average count, averaging it out. Would we have to wait a year? Two? It's not question that the numbers now are high, but when will we be able to say with high statistical probability if we aren't going to see a "below average" report. Or is this a fundamentally unknown quantity?
Post by: wierd on July 24, 2020, 03:37:43 pm
Take for instance, my nursing home. So far, we have been 100% successful in keeping that shit OUT of our resident population. (And given my state is FUCKING STUPID about this pandemic (https://www.kwch.com/2020/07/17/white-house-report-kansas-among-18-states-declared-red-zones-for-covid-19/), that is no small accomplishment.)
In order to continue to keep our population from getting infected, in the face of ever greater lack of fucks given (because total death rate keeps going down, but actual mortality risk to the population ONLY GOES UP, because of less and less controls!!), the residents have to live in what is essentially a permanent plastic bubble.
We have old people who have not had meaningful contact with family in over half a year now, and with the rate of bullshit-- probably wont get it for OVER A FULL YEAR. This is basically solitary confinement, more or less. This is the kind of experiment NASA does when they run behavioral studies on potential Mars colonists--- except we arent trying to collect data, and we dont give a fuck about ethics oversight, because this is not an experiment, we are just imposing those exact same isolation conditions on elderly people, TO KEEP THEM ALIVE.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 24, 2020, 03:42:31 pm
Quote
have we ever had such detailed records of how a pandemic evolves per demographic group as with this one, where it wipes out the at risk first, then just has lots and lots of cases after that but with less mortality?
Careful --- the 1918 flu was pretty conventional at first killing off mostly people with prior conditions.... then the second wave hit and mortality was inordinately high among young people. I´d certainly not toy around with covid19. The virus is still unacceptably deadly for the general population. Hospitals are getting flooded in the US as we speak. If the system falls hard enough, even those otherwise fit people who would have made a recovery will start to die due to lack of healthcare. Again, nursing home residents were clearly the more vulnerable population and they were decimated by it (literally), but the main risk of the virus is, and was always, healthcare collapse. Give it fuel and you´ll see the scenes repeated again.
In fact, I´d argue that the dramatically higher mortality in nursing homes is at least in part related to healthcare collapse.
Post by: Starver on July 24, 2020, 04:08:21 pm
(Well, it's better than a Logan's Run/Soylent Green crossover, right?)
@Chairman: 1918 (and the lead-up[1]) had the distinction of working its way through "healthy" young people institutionalised into mass military formations (both at the horrible, cramped conditions at the front and in the not as obviously horrible conditions in holding camps away from the front and for an extended period once there was no front to be at).
Where we currently look at the failings (forced or unforced) of OAP homes, putting those vulnerable through age into risky positions, back then it took hold much through the close-quartering of those vulnerable through trauma (physical, mental, the contemporary militerised life-style in general) and often basic/substandard subsistence for the situations they were in.
The civilian populations then received the illness into communities now lacking many of the pre-war breadwinners and with the Military Complex wearing down a lot of those that took up the slack, at a time when the understanding of the impact of what was basically poverty (often at levels not understood by us today, though obviously the subsequent Depression struck home worse on that score). The 'better off' were proof from some of that, of course, but still did not have much to prevent the high rates in hoi poloi from leaching into their ranks mostly via the younger members who had perhaps been in the midst of the same stewing-pot as they commanded those other young men.
Medically, the system was overloaded and mismanaged mostly when the contagion was striking the "young and fit", who may not have been that fit, and in populations with far fewer senior citizens to subsequently succumb.
Well, that's one way to look at it. Complexities abound in that simple reading, and I'm not sure we can say what the 1918(ish) pandemic would have made of the 2018(+) situation, had it somehow erupted then.
[1] It started earlier, though it was then not as obvious against the meat-grinder of trench warefare. Arguably, that pandemic led to the cessation of hostilities being that year, rather than the next. But then it might have also led to the punitive Versailles, at that point, that fuelled the interests that created WW2. So some analytical historians believe, anyway.
Post by: Egan_BW on July 24, 2020, 05:28:11 pm
We have old people who have not had meaningful contact with family in over half a year now, and with the rate of bullshit-- probably wont get it for OVER A FULL YEAR. This is basically solitary confinement, more or less. This is the kind of experiment NASA does when they run behavioral studies on potential Mars colonists--- except we arent trying to collect data, and we dont give a fuck about ethics oversight, because this is not an experiment, we are just imposing those exact same isolation conditions on elderly people, TO KEEP THEM ALIVE.
Dark but serious question: is spending a full year and a half essentially alone very preferable to death?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 24, 2020, 05:33:09 pm
Post by: Frumple on July 24, 2020, 05:44:16 pm
Probably a lot better than your kids carrying the plague that kills you, too. Because if there's anything an old person wants, it's to die in suffocating agony while dumping the guilt for functionally murdering them on their family in the process ::)
Post by: Starver on July 24, 2020, 06:24:31 pm
It might even be a little bit better, where previously only hurried physical visits were possible by the working parents of their grandchildren, the latter happy to FaceTime granny almost every day but couldn't have managed the same frequency of trips to see her under the old syste, if everyone concerned is geared up for the New Normal.
But caveats abound. Not all those concerned are easily adaptable, to suddenly being in Eliot's sealed-up house with almost faceless suited-up attendants once the government discovers there's an E.T. on the premises. Getting a bunch of tech kit on site is perhaps not something they expected to need to budget for. The families may be less capable of holding up their end of such a link. The handy half-truth that they couldn't practically visit more than once a week might be laid uncomfortably bare when they can contact any time, but actually don't and risk even letting the old schedule slip.
On the whole, I think it can be certainly no worse than before, but in a whole swathe of individual cases I can see it going very, very much badly, before we get beyond those perfectly protected from the pathogen and get to those who still suffered and may not ever be as physiologically well as they were, in a stable and supposedly lasting manner, in their prior 'autumnal' existence, with related and unrelated psychological spill-over adding to this.
(I'm thinking back to how my own Dad would have handled any of this. Never in a 'Home', only ever at his own home except when necessarily at hospital. At the same time Mum, a decade younger (fitter in every way even like-for-like) and his primary carer when not effectively respited from that task, would have been tied down more than when on her own and I'd probably have been brow-beaten into not visiting, rather than felt obliged to take more personal care of myself in order to be able to continue visits to her. But I'm getting into personal territory rather than any objective here, so I don't want to dwell on that, or the pair of grandparents I knew, or the other pair I hardly got any chance to know.)
Frumple got in with their reply while I was composing this as not exactly in response to MSH, but with that as the latest post in a string I was effectively adding to. Frump does rather ninja me with far better brevity, of course!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 24, 2020, 07:29:21 pm
Yes.
Dark but serious question: is spending a full year and a half essentially alone very preferable to death?
Really I've spent good chunks of my life essentialy alone. Specially in rhe last 3 years. I prefer being alive
Post by: martinuzz on July 24, 2020, 10:30:27 pm
Really I've spent good chunks of my life essentialy alone. Specially in rhe last 3 years. I prefer being aliveThis only works if you have a schizoid personality. (this has nothing to do with something that sounds similar, schizophrenic)
Schizoid personality means you have a personality that is not bothered by being alone / devoid of social contact.
Note that most people are not schizoid, and do have a strong need for social contact, and a lack of that can cause serious mental problems.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 24, 2020, 10:54:36 pm
Post by: wierd on July 24, 2020, 11:56:14 pm
Literal solitary confinement is torture, and whether that's better than death is subjective. But I don't think not being visited by your children is torture, it just sucks. It probably sucks enough to kill a more fragile elderly person, but it's still not solitary confinement.
One issue is person-to-person asymptomatic transmission.
For this reason, communal dining is not happening. Communal enrichment activities are not happening. Etc. (the risk, is that if an employee DOES bring crow plague to work, those people that have been exposed can be immediately isolated and monitored for 2 weeks for symptoms, and in that time prior, we know that person to person contact has been at a minimum, so it is easier to enact such processes.)
It is closer to solitary confinement than you realize, just a softer version. Residents can totally facebook and things like that. But human contact is kept to staff only, and staff wears facemasks and undergoes daily health monitoring. We had a scare a bit ago, which is why I had to do a nasophyrangeal swab culture (on myself!) to assure the safety of my residents.
We have been on top of the monitoring for any and all changes in vital sign data, collecting full sets 3x daily on all residents, etc.
Post by: misko27 on July 25, 2020, 01:22:13 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 01:24:28 am
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 01:26:18 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 01:29:42 am
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 01:36:13 am
https://ibb.co/LhBy0G3 (https://ibb.co/LhBy0G3)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 01:40:07 am
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 01:42:40 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 01:45:00 am
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 01:50:26 am
The CDC says there were 72,219 new cases on July 24th.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 02:01:11 am
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 02:04:39 am
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases (https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 02:07:43 am
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 02:12:18 am
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/05/world/worldometer-coronavirus-mystery/ (https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/05/world/worldometer-coronavirus-mystery/)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 25, 2020, 02:21:05 am
Regardless as to who is or is not cooking books and in which direction, the essence of my point is that all numbers agree we're at least near a peak. The cases seem to have a tendency to waver down and then rapidly increase when they are generally increasing in a real sense, and we haven't reached the end of one of those oscillations yet. This could be an (extremely high altitude) plateau, or it could still be going. Give it another week.
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 02:37:09 am
Post by: wierd on July 25, 2020, 02:45:56 am
EG, the "Official" data, is nothing but lies.
Post by: ZBridges on July 25, 2020, 04:18:41 am
Post by: Starver on July 25, 2020, 04:54:03 am
Have we gotten to the point where the Virus cases per day in the US exceeds total possible test capacity? At some point, cases will plateau because we simply can't test fast enough...Had to read that twice-and-a-bit. Total actual (new} cases... is the default position, beneath which ((edit: sorry, bad phrasing, YKWIM)) you (and we in the UK) probably haven't managed yet. Total identified (new) cases would never go north of the current testing number[1] because, well, you can't ever assign positive/negative to 110% of those tested, never mind get positives to that kind of supercentipercenty level.
Highly suspected cases (or back-extrapolated by later results, investigated vectors and outcomes), that'd be tricky. It'd also be the case the Trump would be 'right' in that only by testing more people clearly in distress (or worse) to discover their official condition, do you get to a point where they obviously were a case two weeks previously when they weren't tested because there was no capacity to do so. So if you don't test so much, you can never know you weren't testing enough.
(On the other side of that, I see there's still a lot of meme activity like "Person X died of <clearly non-Covid reason>, but is marked down as a Covid death", continuing to suggest there are inflations in the figures with the heavy imication that all the positives are doubtful, rather than percentile rounding errors. The one where X is George Floyd is, I would say, 'unbecoming', except that the 'people' who sparked that one off will already have shown their colours in that direction and it's probably sadly inevitable.)
The estimates are that the US has (just passed) 4 million cases, give or take arguments. I forget what total tests-done (not people-tested, unfortunately). The rate of positives found (probably includes positives (re)confirmed?) has been published/worked out for all periods. I'm sure we could establish whether the argued-over value of instantaneous cases-likely exceeded the likely number of persons-tested, at various points along that timeline.
Excluding the very beginning, and a little beyond, when there obviously were cases but equally obviously no way to test at all. Every country, I think, will have had that phase in their profile, hopefully that ended quite early (and did not realise later).
But because a lot of that is interpretation, and there's little data to interpret (North Korea/Turkmenistan, you have your reasons...), and the data to interpret is presented very differently across jurisdictions, I don't think there's a fool(/dictator)proof comparison to be easily had, here.
[1] Recipients, not tests, which is << total testing capacity in reality.
Post by: misko27 on July 26, 2020, 12:09:38 am
We're still breaking records, so probably not. 78k yesterday, I believe.See that's just it: are those essentially just advancements in our testing capacity? Bear in mind too that testing can only be considered on a state-by-state case: nationally, a record might only reflect (new) cases in states whose testing infrastructure is not yet overwhelmed.
For instance I know Arizona has, if we look at the numbers, seemingly plateaued. Yet what I recall about Arizona's situation was a desperate lack of testing capacity, to the extent that a site that opened at 8 had 800 calls waiting, and filled the 1000 they could do per day by 8:08. I worry that such plateaus represent merely the effective limit of daily testing capacity rather than an actual fact...
Post by: feelotraveller on July 26, 2020, 12:44:57 am
Untested cases are anybodies guess. Lack of testing can reduce reported figures but will not deal with the underlying spread of the virus (if anything underestimating of the scope of the pandemic leads to it becoming more severe since proper measures to deal with it are not undertaken).
Post by: Starver on July 26, 2020, 03:21:01 am
(And to think we imagined their example to be the very image of perfection.Looks like Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow is to be our saviour, then?)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 26, 2020, 09:32:08 am
Post by: wierd on July 26, 2020, 12:53:22 pm
(sigh, when will the world's collective governments realize this is not a fucking game, and the cant just ignore this problem away?)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 26, 2020, 01:13:41 pm
Again?(Maybe when they get infected, then they’ll realize)
(sigh, when will the world's collective governments realize this is not a fucking game, and the cant just ignore this problem away?)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 26, 2020, 01:27:46 pm
Post by: McTraveller on July 26, 2020, 02:38:10 pm
Again?
(sigh, when will the world's collective governments realize this is not a fucking game, and the cant just ignore this problem away?)
This is a human problem, not just a "government" problem. Seriously, you shouldn't need the government to force you to wear a mask or take precautions. I guess maybe if there was one thing I would like to see from governments it is this: instead of printing dollars, simply freeze all accounts. No bills due, no payments required. You don't get paid, but you also have no bills. Start from that premise, then figure out how to still provide health care, emergency services, agriculture and shipping so we can still have clean water, electricity, food, and health care without having to have people get paychecks.
There's got to be a way to make that work....
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 26, 2020, 02:41:24 pm
This is a human problem, not just a "government" problem.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Vietnam
Post by: McTraveller on July 26, 2020, 03:15:38 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 26, 2020, 03:29:01 pm
Or rather, about 1/5th of the people feel empowered to not obey according to polling, which sadly for viral infection is more than sufficient opening.
Post by: Eschar on July 26, 2020, 05:08:24 pm
Again?
(sigh, when will the world's collective governments realize this is not a fucking game, and the cant just ignore this problem away?)
This is a human problem, not just a "government" problem. Seriously, you shouldn't need the government to force you to wear a mask or take precautions. I guess maybe if there was one thing I would like to see from governments it is this: instead of printing dollars, simply freeze all accounts. No bills due, no payments required. You don't get paid, but you also have no bills. Start from that premise, then figure out how to still provide health care, emergency services, agriculture and shipping so we can still have clean water, electricity, food, and health care without having to have people get paychecks.
There's got to be a way to make that work....
Until they find out what's going on, everyone who provides goods and services is going to stop providing until they can figure out how they're going to get compensated by their erstwhile customers, and so nobody's going to have those goods or services, and that's going to end very badly.
Well, some will provide goods/services for free, but probably not enough will do that to stave off shock and doom.
Post by: Reelya on July 26, 2020, 07:51:42 pm
Again?(Maybe when they get infected, then they’ll realize)
(sigh, when will the world's collective governments realize this is not a fucking game, and the cant just ignore this problem away?)
You have too high hopes. They'll deny reality, then when reality hits them in the face, instead of admitting any error they'll just rewrite history. Consider how after Bush left all the conservatives started saying Bush was one of those dirty liberals, so anything he did while in office was that nasty liberal stuff, completely rewriting the actual history in which all the conservatives were following behind Bush like good little loyal fascists up until the thing became unstuck and everyone realized what a balls-up the whole thing was. Just to make the point:
https://www.newsweek.com/fox-lou-dobbs-george-bush-liberal-1111686
"Fox Business Host Calls Former President George W. Bush a 'Radical' Liberal"
This was the same Fox News that was beating the war drums for Bush in the vein of a Stalinist propaganda machine the whole time. This is the real Orwellian Newspeak right there.
When they get infected then people will realize? Good luck with that. These sort of political machines have no problems throwing members under the bus if they've served their usefulness or they become a liability. Any one of them who get infected are just cannon fodder.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/25/world/americas/bolsonaro-coronavirus.html
For example Bolsonaro got infected, but didn't die, so to his supporters, this justifies Bolsonaro's claim that Coronavirus isn't a problem. Now, consider if he had died, they could just have concocted conspiracy theories that he had been murdered somehow, poisoned by the 5th column "doctors" as part of their 'Scamdemic' directed against Trump and Bolsonaro.
Post by: Magistrum on July 27, 2020, 09:35:21 am
Now all we have is this photo:
Spoiler: At least it's a nice meme template... (click to show/hide)
Post by: Zangi on July 27, 2020, 10:30:37 am
Post by: Dostoevsky on July 27, 2020, 03:53:38 pm
I guess maybe if there was one thing I would like to see from governments it is this: instead of printing dollars, simply freeze all accounts. No bills due, no payments required. You don't get paid, but you also have no bills. Start from that premise, then figure out how to still provide health care, emergency services, agriculture and shipping so we can still have clean water, electricity, food, and health care without having to have people get paychecks.
There's got to be a way to make that work....
Wouldn't that require kinda-sorta nationalizing all sorts of industries and services, at least temporarily? Not that I'm necessarily against that as an emergency measure, I just think it'd be really darn difficult to do effectively. Especially in the current culture and government (and I mean that broader than just this presidential term).
The funny money approach is terribly inefficient and potentially has long term side effects, but in an 'all this poo just hit the fan' situation is probably more readily deployable and acceptable to folks. Of course, we ended up screwing this up in all sorts of ways too.
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 04:07:18 pm
The real problem is that just providing those skeleton services wouldn't usually require a huge number of people, because of increases in productivity, but most of the things people actually do are value-adding that's not that bare-bones minimum needed to survive. If there were no paychecks or bills or ways to provide a service and be paid for your effort, everyone would drop to putting in the literal minimum of effort, and overall the economy would collapse down to a rump of just surviving. For a start, all creative endeavors that require a lot of people such as TV shows would stop production unless the government came in and commandeered them and commanded them to keep making the shows. I'd normally say they'd switch to a taxation based model to pay for the shows to be made, but in this case that wouldn't be viable because they couldn't even pay the people who work for the government any more. So, they'd have to basically conscript people to work in TV production and you'd get standard rations while you did so, not remunerated based on how many hours you actually did your job. You could still get Youtube, however since there won't be an advertisements or other economic support for youtube channels, even that would collapse back to levels of quality circa 2008.
And then you'd be in the situation of the government decided which shows are needed and which shows are not, the same way they're deciding everyone only gets raw apples and bags of flour. because making and providing apple pies is a waste of the scant resources.
Post by: Starver on July 27, 2020, 04:21:00 pm
Can't say I'd disagree with that. A veritable Force Majure by an expanding government power-grab. Anybody who considers me left-wing[1] might be surprised by me shying away from a game of Musical Chairs where, when the music stops, the pianist stands up and himself directs things so everyone gets at least one bumcheek on every seat still remaining.
If this is the solution, the problem is indeed dire. I'm a safety-net supporter, I suppose, rather than a seine-net one.
[1] Having known people who are themselves somewhat to the right of Ghenghiz Kahn, that's a given.
Post by: martinuzz on July 27, 2020, 05:48:42 pm
For example Bolsonaro got infected, but didn't die, so to his supporters, this justifies Bolsonaro's claim that Coronavirus isn't a problem. Now, consider if he had died, they could just have concocted conspiracy theories that he had been murdered somehow, poisoned by the 5th column "doctors" as part of their 'Scamdemic' directed against Trump and Bolsonaro.Solution: murder Bolsonaro, make a facebook post that claims he was killed by corona, make sure that facebook post has more likes than those made by Bolsonaro groupies, because a facebook post with the most likes is the TRUTH
EDIT: in other news, worrisome: German doctors discovered that 1/3d of recovered corona patients have scar tissue on their heart muscle.What's more worrisome, a large portion of those were relatively young (age 45-53), didn't even get severe respiratory problems and weren't even admitted to hospital. So, apparently, even if you did get corona but didn't get really sick from it, you can still be a heart patient for the rest of your life.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/nieuw-onderzoek-bewijst-herstelde-coronapatienten-hebben-vaak-littekens-op-hun-hart~b62d1c45/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/nieuw-onderzoek-bewijst-herstelde-coronapatienten-hebben-vaak-littekens-op-hun-hart~b62d1c45/)
Post by: McTraveller on July 27, 2020, 06:38:57 pm
I mean I know I don't have an existing heart scan to know if I have scar tissue from some random cause, that might just be found now because people are looking at everything with high-powered microscopes.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 27, 2020, 06:39:51 pm
Post by: Eschar on July 27, 2020, 08:00:08 pm
Post by: Greiger on July 27, 2020, 08:01:31 pm
What if the coronavirus is just an email spambot rigged into controlling a printer that is using paper from the Death Note?
We now return you to your regularly scheduled Covid discussion.
Post by: Iduno on July 27, 2020, 08:11:33 pm
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 08:38:51 pm
I mean, hopefully they used a control group, but I didn't see any mention of one in the article...
You don't need a control group in a situation like this, you just compare it to known population data.
I mean ... these are men 45-53 who have coronavirus. It's not hard to get data about men 45-53 who don't have coronavirus, just look at literally any data on heart disease prevalence published before a few months ago and you have untainted data that can't possibly be conflated with people who have coronavirus.
After all, any control group you form to test the hypothesis would merely be men of that age who don't have coronavirus, so you may as well just look up those numbers from 2019 or earlier rather than bothering to make a group.
Post by: Egan_BW on July 27, 2020, 09:12:45 pm
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 09:42:48 pm
Say you select a "control group" of people who didn't get the virus and find they have less scarring. Well, this could mean that the coronavirus causes the scarring, or the scarring causes you to be more likely catch the virus, or a third factor causes both. It doesn't actually answer the question. The problem here is that you haven't isolated the variables after all so the control group is meaningless.
Post by: Egan_BW on July 27, 2020, 09:50:06 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 27, 2020, 09:53:35 pm
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 09:54:30 pm
Post by: Starver on July 27, 2020, 10:02:55 pm
Give me enough data, and I could correlate something like a preference for a certain shade of paint with which testicle is most descended...
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 28, 2020, 12:35:07 am
Post by: Reelya on July 28, 2020, 02:36:44 am
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-plandemic-and-the-seven-traits-of-conspiratorial-thinking-138483
One strong disconfirmation to the conspiracy theory is how much people wearing masks royally fucks with facial recognition. You know, those same masks all the protestors used to wear.
Here, there was a conspiracy theorist who was urging everyone to wear masks before, when they weren't recommended, but when the outbreak spread and they started saying "ok it might be good for everyone to wear a mask, please wear masks" she's ripped her mask off as an act of defiance against the powers that be, since clearly, covering everyone's faces is part of their nefarious plot.
https://www.bbc.com/news/52847648
Quote
A new YouGov poll of 1,640 people suggests that 28% of Americans believe that Bill Gates wants to use vaccines to implant microchips in people - with the figure rising to 44% among Republicans.
How the hell is this even a thing? Well I guess that considering these people believe in actual magic and demons then any other belief no matter how preposterous can be considered plausible.
Post by: martinuzz on July 28, 2020, 03:12:17 am
How the hell is this even a thing? Well I guess that considering these people believe in actual magic and demons then any other belief no matter how preposterous can be considered plausible.Corona virus is tailored by democrats to cause more brain damage in republicans, obviously.
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 28, 2020, 07:01:23 am
How the hell is this even a thing? Well I guess that considering these people believe in actual magic and demons then any other belief no matter how preposterous can be considered plausible.Corona virus is tailored by democrats to cause more brain damage in republicans, obviously.
Come on, it's obvious that masks are to filter out air so you breath in more chemtrails.
Post by: Starver on July 28, 2020, 07:10:38 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 28, 2020, 09:10:04 am
Post by: wierd on July 28, 2020, 09:16:33 am
See image:
(https://image.shutterstock.com/z/stock-photo-implantable-rfid-tag-1177273.jpg)
They only work within a short distance of a reader, which actively sends a radio pulse, which energizes the internal antenna coil, which then applies a charge to the internal capacitor, and the inductor supplies a more reliable current flow for a very tiny period of time, in which the implant then chirps out a short digital message on its target band.
The implants are quite large. If one was injected, the recipient would notice.
Post by: Rolan7 on July 28, 2020, 09:32:21 am
Post by: wierd on July 28, 2020, 10:05:03 am
ASSUMING that you could get a regular supplier-- AND-- that you have completely overcome all of the technical obstacles to using the technology (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1388248113003640) (such as being rendered inert through the accumulation of biological polymers, like protein complexes such as blood platelets) -- One could produce a device capable of sending a very simplistic cellular signal, that relies on GPS signals. Extreme low power computing is totally a thing, and as such, theoretically possible...
However, you then end up with certain physics problems manifesting themselves. Namely, you cannot produce reliable signals without an appropriate antenna geometry, and you do not get appropriate antenna geometries without certain size requirements being met. (at least, not for anything outside of the near field.)
SO-- If you don't mind your implant recipient looking a little like the hunchback of notre dame, due to the enormous bulge on his shoulder from the excessively large implant, that is excessively large because of all the requisite physics needed for the devices to operate--- Then sure-- SURE-- you can put something like that inside somebody.
Considering that the previous implants are about the size of a pine nut, and would be easily felt beneath the skin of somebody that had one inserted-- (and would CERTAINLY feel it going in!!)-- I cannot imagine a circumstance where such an enormous implant could be installed surreptitiously.
Mostly, it's just people basing a world view on faulty modern-reinterpretation of really old bronze age prophetic rambling, who cannot be bothered to actually research anything at all about the potential obstacles to feasibility of such an absurd conjecture, but respond very fearfully of the notion instead.
As NG properly points out, the human body is a VERY hostile environment for ANYTHING that gets implanted. The body does NOT like foreign material, of any kind. Things like artificial joints, osteopedic supports, or artificial heart valves, *ALL* have to be made of very special materials to avoid having the body freak its shit, and destroy the surrounding tissue with runaway inflammatory reactions, or (in the case of heart valves) coating them in thick layers of biopolymers (which then can lead to stroke and other complications). This is why the pet-tracker implant is hermetically sealed inside a borosilicate capsule.
There *ARE* vastly smaller RFID tags that have been made (http://pinktentacle.com/2007/02/hitachi-develops-rfid-powder/)-- some as tiny as particles of black pepper-- with some suggestions that they could be integrated into paper currency notes to better track and prevent counterfeiting-- They are *NOT* made to the necessary requirements to survive inside a biological organism's body, and would be inactivated in hours by a host if they were just loaded up and shot under the skin. (In addition to likely causing all manner of adverse reactions.)
BUT-- these people are a lot less interested in the danger of being tracked-- (See cellphones, Facebook, Targeted advertising, Et Al) and MUCH MORE interested in the religious prognostication (Mark of the beast, and eternal damnation)-- so who am I to try to bring enlightenment, where none is wanted?
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 28, 2020, 10:19:42 am
The kind of chip implanted (since they are commonly used to track animals, such as pets) is fully encapsulated in borosilicate glass. They contain no chemical batteries, and instead rely on an inductor and a ceramic capacitor, attached to a long, thin coiled copper antenna, all packaged cleanly and hermetically inside the borosilicate capsule.
See image:
(https://image.shutterstock.com/z/stock-photo-implantable-rfid-tag-1177273.jpg)
They only work within a short distance of a reader, which actively sends a radio pulse, which energizes the internal antenna coil, which then applies a charge to the internal capacitor, and the inductor supplies a more reliable current flow for a very tiny period of time, in which the implant then chirps out a short digital message on its target band.
The implants are quite large. If one was injected, the recipient would notice.
I know this is a facetious question.. but...Thanks for the information.
ASSUMING that you could get a regular supplier-- AND-- that you have completely overcome all of the technical obstacles to using the technology (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1388248113003640) (such as being rendered inert through the accumulation of biological polymers, like protein complexes such as blood platelets) -- One could produce a device capable of sending a very simplistic cellular signal, that relies on GPS signals. Extreme low power computing is totally a thing, and as such, theoretically possible...
However, you then end up with certain physics problems manifesting themselves. Namely, you cannot produce reliable signals without an appropriate antenna geometry, and you do not get appropriate antenna geometries without certain size requirements being met. (at least, not for anything outside of the near field.)
SO-- If you don't mind your implant recipient looking a little like the hunchback of notre dame, due to the enormous bulge on his shoulder from the excessively large implant, that is excessively large because of all the requisite physics needed for the devices to operate--- Then sure-- SURE-- you can put something like that inside somebody.
Considering that the previous implants are about the size of a pine nut, and would be easily felt beneath the skin of somebody that had one inserted-- (and would CERTAINLY feel it going in!!)-- I cannot imagine a circumstance where such an enormous implant could be installed surreptitiously.
Mostly, it's just people basing a world view on faulty modern-reinterpretation of really old bronze age prophetic rambling, who cannot be bothered to actually research anything at all about the potential obstacles to feasibility of such an absurd conjecture, but respond very fearfully of the notion instead.
As NG properly points out, the human body is a VERY hostile environment for ANYTHING that gets implanted. The body does NOT like foreign material, of any kind. Things like artificial joints, osteopedic supports, or artificial heart valves, *ALL* have to be made of very special materials to avoid having the body freak its shit, and destroy the surrounding tissue with runaway inflammatory reactions, or (in the case of heart valves) coating them in thick layers of biopolymers (which then can lead to stroke and other complications). This is why the pet-tracker implant is hermetically sealed inside a borosilicate capsule.
There *ARE* vastly smaller RFID tags that have been made (http://pinktentacle.com/2007/02/hitachi-develops-rfid-powder/)-- some as tiny as particles of black pepper-- with some suggestions that they could be integrated into paper currency notes to better track and prevent counterfeiting-- They are *NOT* made to the necessary requirements to survive inside a biological organism's body, and would be inactivated in hours by a host if they were just loaded up and shot under the skin. (In addition to likely causing all manner of adverse reactions.)
BUT-- these people are a lot less interested in the danger of being tracked-- (See cellphones, Facebook, Targeted advertising, Et Al) and MUCH MORE interested in the religious prognostication (Mark of the beast, and eternal damnation)-- so who am I to try to bring enlightenment, where none is wanted?
Post by: Starver on July 28, 2020, 10:51:27 am
Post by: wierd on July 28, 2020, 11:16:31 am
short list:
1) They would show up very brightly on radiology film. Xrays at your dentist? YUP, your dentist and dental hygenist would need to be "In" on the conspiracy to never tell you about the large pine nut sized implant that somehow got shoved up your damn nose. (or something (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVdAgEbldMI).)
2) If you get in a motorvehicle accident, and get rushed to a hospital where they do an MRI on you to make sure you dont have a hematoma pushing on your brain, if you have one of these shoved in there, it is gonna get magnetized, and literally SHOOT THE FUCK OUT OF YOU LIKE A BULLET, and will destroy the MRI. You know that inductor that's integrated into it? The one that regulates its power curve so it can reliably send its clandestine messages to the CIA with their invisible guns? YEAH-- THAT ONE-- guess how it works? MAGNETS. Know what an MRI is? A GIANT, HELIUM COOLED, SUPER POWERFUL MAGNET. PTOOO! that thing is gonna burst out of your noggin like a chestburster alien as soon as they turn that thing on. Good luck covering that one up. At the VERY LEAST, even if it does not shoot out of you like a bullet, it will do what its circuit intention is-- prevent changes in current (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVdAgEbldMI)-- as the ENORMOUS field is applied to your head, and thus act like a very powerful resistor for a few tiny portions of a second, and in that time, get so unbelievably hot that it will rupture the vial it is encased in, and cause severe trauma to your head meats. FUN TIMES!
3) Nevermind the absolutely ABSURD number of people that would have to be in on the conspiracy to put one of those "CLEARLY NOT A NASOPHYRANGEAL SWAB" up people's noses. (Hell, the makeup test I had to do because some dipshit ruptured my test vial in transit, WAS SELF ADMINISTERED-- Clearly, I would have to be in on the very conspiracy against myself, to implant my own damn chip!)
Now, if you will excuse me, I would prefer to no longer think about the absurdity of this concept, and get back to discussing things that can actually help in this global crisis-- like getting people to wear their damn masks, and to stay the fuck home unless they have a dire need to do otherwise.
Post by: Greiger on July 28, 2020, 05:17:33 pm
Not all the Shape-Changing Lizards can do human mouths properly (Don Jr can't, whatever he is), and masks let more of them walk among us.Don Jr isn't one of us, I'm not really sure what he is. Maybe one of the donkey aliens from the Ass nebula. They can't naturally shapeshift and have to use one of those hologram projectors, they never look quite right.
I wonder if there's any way to make an effective mask that looks like an ineffective one, and then manufacture them to have a whole bunch of anti-masker stuff printed on it. Like a cloth mask that has the mouth area cut out and replaced with clear plastic that at a casual glance looks like it's hastily applied and does not create a seal, but in the anchor points in the cloth it's carefully sealed all the way around.
Post by: Frumple on July 28, 2020, 06:38:45 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 28, 2020, 06:46:39 pm
Post by: Bumber on July 28, 2020, 06:47:47 pm
1) They would show up very brightly on radiology film. Xrays at your dentist? YUP, your dentist and dental hygenist would need to be "In" on the conspiracy to never tell you about the large pine nut sized implant that somehow got shoved up your damn nose.
Well, obviously! The radio transceivers aren't going to implant themselves into your teeth!
Post by: Reelya on July 28, 2020, 07:32:08 pm
Post by: Bumber on July 28, 2020, 08:53:00 pm
Well if all of the far right inject themselves with Drano to flush out the Gates chips, then this year won't be a complete wash.
It won't be a complete wash without some Tide Pods.
Post by: Eschar on July 28, 2020, 08:53:37 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 29, 2020, 03:01:48 am
Post by: Reelya on July 29, 2020, 09:47:08 am
Well ... the police had to smash her car window in order to arrest her. Turns out that the car window thing doesn't prevent the police arresting you if they really want to. I can just imagine he franctically winding the window up going "oh yes! the window thing, can't forget that, they can't get to you then to read you your rights".
Post by: scriver on July 29, 2020, 02:41:48 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 29, 2020, 02:50:46 pm
Post by: Dunamisdeos on July 29, 2020, 02:53:18 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 29, 2020, 03:11:01 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on July 29, 2020, 03:19:25 pm
Naturally the English built a city around that city, with the same name, to avoid confusion
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 29, 2020, 03:22:18 pm
Post by: Starver on July 29, 2020, 03:47:49 pm
Because for some reason these things appeal to me, I'm well versed in the daily madness of American, British, and German SovCits. It's glorious stuff, the German ones think that the German Empire still legally exists and they are citizens of it.
What about the British ones?I'm fairly sure that the last thing they want to exist, and think they are a citizen of, is the German Empire...
:P
edit: It's a useful thing to remember about The City Of London and The City Of Westminster in a relevent pub quiz situation (especially 'Pointless'-style rounds). For example "The Reform Act of 1832 drew a line under the prior common practice of single small settlements returning two MPs to Parliament, as well as rapidly growing cities such as Manchester being a virtually unrepresented territory within the whole of the two-MP constituency that covered the whole of Lancashire. But what was the last year in which one MP was elected to represent an area encompassing two modern cities?". The answer, as you should realise, is of course 2019 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickie_Aiken)...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 29, 2020, 05:09:10 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 29, 2020, 05:11:30 pm
Post by: Reelya on July 29, 2020, 06:34:13 pm
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9080720/
Quote
Chloroquine phosphate and its analogue hydroxychloroquine are used on long term basis as anti-inflammatory drugs in the treatment of a multitude of chronic diseases. In the present work the dose of the drug was calculated and given to albino rats in the usual low therapeutic regimen used in man. This work has shown that chloroquine depresses testosterone secretion in a progressive manner which increased the longer the duration of treatment, sperm count was also decreased,
They're always concerned about there being testosterone-depleting substances in tap water turning the frikkin' frogs gay so it might be a good idea to find a good source and craft this into a social media post. Also note:
Quote
At the same time this work emphasizes the need of further study of the reversibility of the pathological lesions in the male genital tract after more prolonged administration of the drug than the three months period adopted in the present work.
The stuff causes long term dickrot basically, if used continuously, as it would if you were using it as some sort of general shield against Covid.
Post by: TD1 on July 29, 2020, 06:43:23 pm
Next he will mail you some black market HCQ in order to protect you against the disease of liberalism.
Well, it would be a nice gesture from his uncle to do that at least ;D
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 29, 2020, 06:52:37 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 29, 2020, 09:39:42 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Reelya on July 29, 2020, 10:14:13 pm
Post by: misko27 on July 29, 2020, 11:37:23 pm
I heard a whole city in England declared itself sovereign from the crown, such that even the Queen has to ask permission to enterIt was declared so, but not by them. William the Conqueror granted them a charter to allow them to keep some of their traditions in gratitude for allowing him into the city (the second time; the first time he was unable to breach the Thames river; so he simply didn't, and encircled the city without significant opposition, until the Anglo-Saxon nobility saw the writing on the wall and surrendered). This is distinct from a treaty with quid-pro-quo, "X for Y", and more along the lines of "Well you gave me X; you didn't really have a choice in the manner but I'm pleased all the same, and so I've decided to give you Y because I'm just such a nice individual." Which is the difference between a deal between two peer and a deal between a warden and a prisoner.
Post by: martinuzz on July 30, 2020, 05:03:57 am
If you travel for work often you'll be doing it without family or friends. You're alone and you have to makedo. I did and survived, so if the choice was between being alone or being dead I'd do it again.Without family or friends is not the same as alone. Colleagues, employers, customers, those are all social contacts as well. Or do you work a job where you totally don't interact with anyone at all?
Post by: TD1 on July 30, 2020, 05:08:56 am
Until the North rose against him and he marched north, slaughtering every man he found and burning every building.
Then he got tetchy and confiscated the English lords' lands, instead giving them to Normans.
At the same time written records, strangely, become French and Latin. :P
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 30, 2020, 05:44:14 am
Considering we´re talking about people in a nursing home, they interact with nurses too. So they are not "alone" either.If you travel for work often you'll be doing it without family or friends. You're alone and you have to makedo. I did and survived, so if the choice was between being alone or being dead I'd do it again.Without family or friends is not the same as alone. Colleagues, employers, customers, those are all social contacts as well. Or do you work a job where you totally don't interact with anyone at all?
Post by: scriver on July 30, 2020, 07:20:47 am
Because for some reason these things appeal to me, I'm well versed in the daily madness of American, British, and German SovCits. It's glorious stuff, the German ones think that the German Empire still legally exists and they are citizens of it.
I at times have strong urge to occupy some farmland somewhere and declare every legal action post 1525 null and void due to the king no longer being an elected official.
Through in some pseudolegal brain farts about "urminnes hävd" (basically "by right of ancient memory/custom", a real legal concept in Swedish juridicia, most often invoked in the defense of commons and such) and the illegality of dismantling the odal-system (basically a custom that land that had been in a family for a certain number of generations was not allowed to be seized over defaulting at debts or taxes -- this is basically what makes subsistence living impossible in Sweden these days (and this was the literal intention of the law change, to drive poor farmers out from the countryside and into the cities for the sake of cheap industrial workforce)) in the light of Sweden's promise to respect the laws and customs of native peoples (Swedes are the natives of southern Sweden after all).
And then just live out my life completely alone, angrily shouting at everyone who comes close, feeling perfectly justified in my own deluded little mind.
Sigh. It's a honeyous dream indeed.
Post by: Iduno on July 30, 2020, 11:27:39 am
Does it have adverse effects on females? Or have there only been studies on males?Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Medical studies are usually exclusively or predominately males. Which is also related to unreliable dosage and side-effect information for women. I'm sure there's a reason, and I'm sure they didn't compare ti to the downsides.
Post by: Starver on July 30, 2020, 12:09:32 pm
(It is not helped that far more men tend to put themselves forward for Phase 1 than women. Or so it used to be, for several easily explainable reasons, and it probably has not changed. So, even if curating your random pool of volunteers to get things as balanced as you want, you're going to get an imbalance. Especially when you know you need to assign a disproportionately greater number of the relevent subset to the female-only cohort for those occasions that this is the entire point...)
Plus (post-thalidomide, especially, though that was a different type of failure) precautionarily stating "not to be taken during pregnancy/possibly pregnancy" all the way to the consumer-packaging level, without necessarily having any reason to believe it's an issue.
It's a bit of a mess, but born of over-caution rather than oherwise. And I'd never suggest under-caution, but then I'm not in that business at the moment (and never was anywhere near where I'd influence these things) so you don't need to rely on me to circle that particular square.
Post by: wierd on July 30, 2020, 02:35:21 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/health/children-coronavirus-viral-load-transmission-study-wellness/index.html
The USA is well and truly fucked.
Why? Because Betsy DeVoss is in denial about the need to not have in-class schooling for another year (https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/12/politics/betsy-devos-schools-reopening/index.html), coupled with this new bit of fun, about children carrying high viral loads.
(Sarcasm at maximal, "Peels paint, withers flowers, and curdles milk on contact" levels)
Putting large numbers of children together in close proximity, that have been collected from a geographically large area, for many many hours for 5 days of every week during what is expected to be the height of the corona virus season this year, sounds like a fantastic, fully rational thing to do. I am sure that some spray sanitizer will be more than sufficient to prevent any transmission from shared classroom resources (like desks, water fountains, cafeteria tables, door handles, PE equipment, et al), and this is naturally a fully endorseable and desirable end-goal during this global emergency.
(/sarcasm)
Post by: McTraveller on July 30, 2020, 02:48:48 pm
Are you going to watch my kids and make sure they do their schooling?
Like anything else, this is not as simple as merely "close all the schools." Do you understand how much our society relies on the "childcare" aspect of public schools? I wish we could change this "overnight", but I just don't see how that's possible.
I mean personally I guess if we had a hard lockdown for August, and we get our active cases per capita* down, we can get back to a somewhat normal school program.
I mean seriously - this is almost advocating for intentionally cancelling public education. Do we really want a generation of uneducated people? We complain about how bad things are now, how bad will they be when we have even worse education?
Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 30, 2020, 02:58:46 pm
That's why it was the government's responsibility to at the very least prepare an alternative which most people could follow instead of denying the need for months, bringing us to where we are now. Some of the states are trying, though that's pretty fucking hard with DeVoss up there trying to lie and threaten them into "back to normal" instead of offering any support. Though frankly, I think even leaving kids home alone is a better idea than doing nothing.
Post by: Bumber on July 30, 2020, 03:55:24 pm
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-schools-evidence-kids-coronavirus.html
Post by: wierd on July 30, 2020, 04:00:56 pm
1) There is an implicit assumption that the vector is small because of innate qualities of the children, rather than because the children have been isolated to avoid contagion. That remains to be seen, especially in light of the "Children under 5 have 100 times the viral load" study that was also recently published.
2) Reopening schools is a very political topic, and I am hesitant to be gung-ho on that. (acknowledging my bias)
I will patiently wait and see, but my internal doom-o-meter says this is a recipe ripe for disaster, because the close clustering of children is a massive magnification of transmission vector.
Oh, Looks like the country that has their shit together conducted a study.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html
Quote
Older Children Spread the Coronavirus Just as Much as Adults, Large Study Finds
The study of nearly 65,000 people in South Korea suggests that school reopenings will trigger more outbreaks.
And in recognition of point 1 I just made, these folks rightly point out that the jury is still out on that.
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/what-do-we-know-about-children-and-coronavirus-transmission/
Post by: Doomblade187 on July 30, 2020, 04:25:43 pm
Yeah keep those kids home. While both parents are working? Or are you going to force people to quit so they can stay home and watch their kids do school from home? I mean I guess if you think everyone is unemployed anyway it doesn't matter, eh?The simple solution to the childcare aspect of schools is "Pay people to stay home."
Are you going to watch my kids and make sure they do their schooling?
Like anything else, this is not as simple as merely "close all the schools." Do you understand how much our society relies on the "childcare" aspect of public schools? I wish we could change this "overnight", but I just don't see how that's possible.
I mean personally I guess if we had a hard lockdown for August, and we get our active cases per capita* down, we can get back to a somewhat normal school program.
I mean seriously - this is almost advocating for intentionally cancelling public education. Do we really want a generation of uneducated people? We complain about how bad things are now, how bad will they be when we have even worse education?Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
While I understand that some families are comprised entirely of essential workers making minimum wage, stipend for parents to stay home for the kids (easy to tell via tax returns, btw) would allow one or both to quit work to perform childcare, and replace missing work income.
Post by: Frumple on July 30, 2020, 04:56:25 pm
... or would have been a good start several months ago, along with not having a staggeringly fucked up response on the education/child care front. Staggeringly fucking everything up was probably the only possible results with a murderous piece of shit like devos at the highest levels of educational decision making, though :-\
Post by: misko27 on July 30, 2020, 07:48:36 pm
This is a long way of saying that if it turns out she's going to need fucking hydroxychloroquine now and we have to wrestle Stella Immanuel's disciples for it I'm gonna be unbelievably pissed.
Post by: Reelya on July 30, 2020, 07:52:36 pm
Does it have adverse effects on females? Or have there only been studies on males?Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Medical studies are usually exclusively or predominately males. Which is also related to unreliable dosage and side-effect information for women. I'm sure there's a reason, and I'm sure they didn't compare ti to the downsides.
I've read historic accounts about that, but I kind of doubt that statement, that this is the case right now. One argument is that the articles bemoaning about it always reference historical accounts rather than current statistics. They wouldn't write the articles like that if your statement was correct.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/nov/13/the-female-problem-male-bias-in-medical-trials
1993 was the year that congress mandated into law female representation in medical studies. Sure, that's not ancient history but it is almost 30 years now, that this has been a legal mandate, and it was a thing people were aware about before that, so it's not like nobody was including women in studies before that. So it's a stretch to use the word "are" in that sentence of yours. It is correct that they tend to use male animals in the more theoretical lab studies, but those are not human studies. Saying you need female rabbits to represent human women is more questionable.
But there's a reason that advocates focus on those non-human theoretical studies, it's because for actual human clinical trial of drugs, they definitely include a proportionate amount of women. That's why for the recent stuff in that article they're all focusing on theoretical animal studies rather than saying they have any evidence that human women are being under-represented in trials of drugs intended for actual human use. Note that they almost exclusively talk about the problem of "male animals" in that article, not the lack of female human test subjects. The human testing thing was mandated decades ago. So they're left with complaining that they predominantly use male mice in experiments, and this is somehow an anti-female thing. I'd argue that it's actually a practicality thing. The female mice make more mice, so the male mice are the expendable ones for the experiments. There's no gender superiority or male-bias in using the male animals for experiments, just practical considerations.
Post by: Starver on July 30, 2020, 08:02:08 pm
No, wait, that's lyncanthropy, not lupus. For some reason I always get the two mixed up.
(Srsly, though, all the best.)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 30, 2020, 08:02:40 pm
Oh shit my mother may have SLE (Lupus). She was found (when she finally got to her checkup after lockdown) to have had an oppurtunistic fungal infection in the esophagus, which is almost entirely associated with AIDs or Hepatitis C. So when she tested negative for everything reasonable... and the last test result to come in was the ANA (anti-nuclear antibodies), which she tested positive for (what the fuck is a cytoplasmic and speckled pattern at 1:320? Google has given me details yet what it means has not been forthcoming).That´s two separate things. The first one is where the antinuclear antibody is sticking. The second is the antibody titer. You dillute the sample until it stops being positive. 1:320 is pretty high TBH
Quote
This is a long way of saying that if it turns out she's going to need fucking hydroxychloroquine now and we have to wrestle Stella Immanuel's disciples for it I'm gonna be unbelievably pissed.This is not really my field, but it´s not necessarily lupus (there are a number of ANA+ autoimmune conditions. It´s not specific) and the treatment is not necessarily HCQ. Dont rush to conclusions. Wait until you talk with the rheuma guy
Post by: Eschar on July 30, 2020, 08:04:49 pm
- misko (emphasis mine)
Post by: martinuzz on July 30, 2020, 08:55:43 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on August 01, 2020, 05:34:09 am
WHO reports another record for global increase in new case, 292,527 on 31 July.
Post by: Starver on August 01, 2020, 06:40:37 am
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 08:47:08 am
In another sign that Friday must have come and gone-
WHO reports another record for global increase in new case, 292,527 on 31 July.
There's proof that that's fake news in the wording. That's just the new cases but you're reporting it as the increase in new cases, which should be the difference between the amount of new cases yesterday and today, which it clearly isn't. That's either the increase in total cases, or the number of new cases, not the "increase in new cases", and you've also given the game away with "increase in new case" which is clearly singular, not plural.
Can't keep your story straight I see #plandemic
Post by: Eschar on August 01, 2020, 09:06:30 am
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 09:47:58 am
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-antimasker-meeting-in-melbourne-shut-down-by-police/news-story/82d32265f60c7ab72ac159d2c469661d
Quote
The Herald Sun reports officers smashed in the window of a young female driver’s car around 6:30pm after she refused to speak to them.
They briefly arrested the woman, before letting her go a short time later.
“Excuse me, this is unlawful,” she protested.
All coming from someone who has a website that says if you don't acknowledge legislation then it doesn't apply to you.
Mind you, Australian sovereign citizens have our own unique flavor, the main difference is the appeals to Queen Elizabeth and/or the Magna Carta, along with other stuff you wouldn't find with US sovereign citizens. "for your law to apply to me, you personally need a signed letter from Queen Elizabeth! Do you have such a letter, or am I free to go?"
https://youveenteredlawland.com/freeman-on-the-land-australia/
Post by: hector13 on August 01, 2020, 10:10:26 am
Because Lizzy in Britain technically has the power to do politics, but if she ever exercised it, would likely spell the end of the royals.
She’s a figurehead, da’s it.
Fakeedit: why are these people going to court if the court’s job is to apply the laws they don’t agree with
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 10:14:53 am
Have I got news for him: when you call the Tax Office, those inbound calls are also handled by people employed by our company, not the tax office.
And these people would specify that they're going to call into the tax office to talk to a "real" Tax Office person. Yeah, ok we have to legally say we're calling from <Company X> on behalf of the tax office, but if you call into the actual tax office, they just work for us but in a different office. "Our" office got closed because of Covid however, and a lot of the "pretend" tax office people, that so offended the sovereign citizens, got transferred to work at the "real" tax office, because they've basically outsourced everything already to the same people. So it really came down to which room you're in whether you were legally allowed to say you're the tax office or <third party> on behalf of the tax office, they're all actually the same people with the same systems and training.
Post by: hector13 on August 01, 2020, 10:23:39 am
She’s 94 ffs
Post by: Starver on August 01, 2020, 10:35:08 am
So, the derivative of the total number of cases.It does not need to be the derivative (d/dt, the 'instantaneous' value) but any agreed metric of the rise (or fall) in the rise (or fall) of the weekly figures, or monthly figures, or each week's figures covering the last month, or each day's figures that cover the last rolling week-or-month... Which, for the same underlying trends, would all be different values.
Whatever, if you wanted to do it, best that the covering period is no less than a week. And maybe if you plot the rate-of-change-of-rate-of-change of the weeks, per days in the week (7) and the ROCOROCO the months, per days in that month (calendar length, or have used 4xweeks from the start) it would give the derivative-like trends..?
Maybe I'll see if I can get a dataset on the raw data (of some kind, ideally with informatiin on any back-dated adjustments).
Post by: Jopax on August 01, 2020, 11:04:11 am
Seems like everyone is past giving a shit at this point. Even at my workplace, they reinstated face masks again but after two weeks of suffering under one I stopped bothering because other than me there was like 1-2 other folks who were wearing them properly.
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 11:16:47 am
(but without the spectators, and it's super silly considering a lot of the recent cases can be traced back to football players getting it and then spreading it on at practice).
Why is that silly? The only reason that a lot of the cases can be traced to players rather than spectators is precisely because there are no spectators. If there were spectators then there would be about 50,000 times as many cases related to spectators rather than players.
So, yes, keeping the sport going but on TV is a reasonable compromise between having no sports and having stadiums be giant virus incubators. The largest stadiums can hold about 100,000 people, and there are approximately two dozen players in the game. Saying that because "a lot" of those two dozen players are getting infected then it's silly to keep the 100,000 other people out doesn't make any sense. Even if all the players in every game got Covid infections, that would still be far less than the number of infections per game if they had spectators.
Post by: Jopax on August 01, 2020, 12:21:53 pm
Post by: wierd on August 01, 2020, 12:24:32 pm
Without it, you end up with reduced social capacity to diffuse in-group/out-group tension in a harmless manner, which then leads to increased negative outcomes from social isolation.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 01:12:05 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 01:14:19 pm
By "function similarly" you actually mean "function completely differently". You can't just replace US football with League of Legends because both have teams and tournaments. Reality just doesn't work like that and you're completely disregarding actual humans in your statement.
The point is that the existing sport is the essential thing because existing people follow it. It's the social institution that matters. The similarities to online gaming are extremely superficial here, because those similarities aren't the important thing that we're trying to preserve by maintaining the sport. Cancelling sports because eSports are a "substitute" is like cancelling religion and saying to watch some fantasy movies instead since those have gods in them too. It's not going to go over well and it misses the point of why religion is a social institution, and watching a movie about a completely fictional religion isn't the same thing as having a religion. Similarly, group sports are about more than watching people play a game on TV, they're about tradition and community and identity. You can't just make up a bunch of computer games and say "you want sports, well there you go! what's your problem?" and expect that to actually work.
Post by: Starver on August 01, 2020, 01:34:08 pm
Post by: Iduno on August 01, 2020, 01:45:26 pm
Depending on how you slice it, "SportsBall" (ahem) could be considered an essential social service.
Without it, you end up with reduced social capacity to diffuse in-group/out-group tension in a harmless manner, which then leads to increased negative outcomes from social isolation.
Beer and circuses, yes.
(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_0rnZeIAQDAw/TJgBDnYHxVI/AAAAAAAAAAc/DwF-eSfYx20/S1600-R/Picture+19.png)
Still not wrong.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 02:01:38 pm
You're not taking humans into account NG. Things are not interchangeable in that way.My post was in response to this
By "function similarly" you actually mean "function completely differently". You can't just replace US football with League of Legends because both have teams and tournaments. Reality just doesn't work like that and you're completely disregarding actual humans in your statement.
The point is that the existing sport is the essential thing because existing people follow it. It's the social institution that matters. The similarities to online gaming are extremely superficial here, because those similarities aren't the important thing that we're trying to preserve by maintaining the sport. Cancelling sports because eSports are a "substitute" is like cancelling religion and saying to watch some fantasy movies instead since those have gods in them too. It's not going to go over well and it misses the point of why religion is a social institution, and watching a movie about a completely fictional religion isn't the same thing as having a religion. Similarly, group sports are about more than watching people play a game on TV, they're about tradition and community and identity. You can't just make up a bunch of computer games and say "you want sports, well there you go! what's your problem?" and expect that to actually work.
Depending on how you slice it, "SportsBall" (ahem) could be considered an essential social service.I’m saying online games also serve the functions of harmless in group/out group tension diffusion in a harmless manner, and staging off social isolation.
Without it, you end up with reduced social capacity to diffuse in-group/out-group tension in a harmless manner, which then leads to increased negative outcomes from social isolation.
Not all humans require football to be part of social groups. I am a human who is not part of the football social institution, but I still socialize. I suggested online games because I, a human, thought it was a good idea. Not all humans think like you, Reelya. Not all humans think like me. Just because I think differently than you, doesn’t mean I don’t take humans into account. Forgive me for assuming that not all humans in the country are part of football social groups. On the topic of replacing religion with movies, that may also be poorly received, but movies don’t start holy wars, crusades, or the killing of those who don’t like the movie/never heard of it. Not everyone is religious, atheism is increasing, meaning more people are starting to not believe in religion anyway. Is preserving religion worth the persecutions? Is preserving football worth the head injuries and potential infection? We don’t do gladiator fights anymore, we found new methods of entertainment, so too will we find new methods of entertainment upon the canceling of football, as it is not the only sport.
Just because I think not like you, doesn’t mean I don’t take humans into account. Not all humans think the same. Not all humans wish for traditions to be kept regardless of the harm it causes.
Post by: Eschar on August 01, 2020, 02:04:07 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 01, 2020, 02:24:10 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 02:36:34 pm
As for your observation that it makes those things more likely: In fact, there was a deep look at the statistics in response to the "superbowl = wife beating" meme, and they couldn't find any supporting data whatsoever. So it's not just a matter of opinion here, this is something they went over with a fine tooth comb to see whether there was any truth in that. Sporting events have been discredited as causing any blip in domestic violence statistics whatsoever. The actual big blip is Christmas.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/domestic-violence-super-bowl-sunday/
On of the cogent facts here is a lot of these claims came from citing reputable sources, but when the sources were contacted by journalists, the sources denied making any such statement. they also cited non-existent research done by groups who then stated they'd never conducted such research. This is not just about some misunderstood research papers, somewhere in this chain you have outright liars and professional fabrication of research. These people are in fact as bad as creationists.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 01, 2020, 02:47:15 pm
I don't think this qualifies as appealing to cultural biases. Sports are incredibly popular and important in the public cultural mindset, and if anything people would have a bias towards ignoring evidence they they cause harm, such as the NFL's saga to deny that playing in the NFL will inevitably give you brain damage that might at some point in the future cause you to flip out and murder your family, or more likely just die of an aneurysm at 40.
While I don't like mass sports or their cultures and could be expected to be biased against them for that reason, I don't dislike them for no reason either, but because of what I've seen from people engaged in them. Anecdotal evidence may not be valid for publication, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's not valid at all.
I'd make the conjecture that sports might not trigger this behavior very much if we didn't live in a world full of violent bigoted drunkards...but we do in fact live in a world full of violent bigoted drunkards, and they don't seem to be going away anytime soon, so....
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 02:52:02 pm
Quote
During the 10-day-long Calgary Stampede, domestic violence calls on the seventh, ninth and tenth day of Stampede, were up 15 per cent compared to an average day.
Which is an odd summary to pick.
EDIT breaking this down:
First, for any random 10 day period, 5 of the days would be expected to be "above average", so it's a no-brainer that you could pick the three highest days, and stated that they're X% above the average day.
Second, this is for a specific type of emergency call in a specific town. If they receive 5000 DV call on an average day vs 50, that would make a lot of difference, since for 50 calls a day, the day to day deviation will be a lot larger, so you're more likely to get days that are markedly above the average.
Third, if it's a general thing, then why not just outright state that the average number of DV calls was higher than average over the whole 10 days, rather than picking out three specific days of a specific year and making that statement. The reason that this is disingenuous is that they could pick any three days out of the ten, so they had many ways to make the same claim even if it's a statistical blip. On average, 5 days out of any 10 will be greater than average and if you narrow that to looking at the highest three days, then you can just set the bar at whatever % the lowest of those three you picked. Like rolling 4 dice and discarding the lowest roll, then claiming you've discovered something new about the "average of rolling dice".
if it's a general thing it should be true of the whole period under question, but they haven't made that statement, and they haven't look at more than one year. Is this replicable for even the whole 10 days, let alone different years?
Post by: dragdeler on August 01, 2020, 02:57:55 pm
Post by: Starver on August 01, 2020, 03:22:10 pm
"They're just talking about football." "This is supposed to be finished." "Why are they just talking about football?" <talking ends, prepared musical montage starts> "It's well past eight o'oclock..." <montage turns into end credits> "The next programme should have started by now!" <end credits continue... continue... continue> "Ah good..." <BBC announcer voices over that there's a football podcast on BBC Sounds> <...and another one, slightly different but still about football>. "..." <-seething
Luckily no-one here is prone to violence. Either through disliking football or disliking the manner in whch other people are disliking football. ;)
(I'm not too keen on football, either, though do at least understand that a football match programme will have people talking about football, and probably overtime if the match had any extra time to it. And some viewers will appreciate it. Well, almost everyone who chooses to watch)
Pointless has now finished. Now watching The Repair Shop. Amazing, it's got a number of people reparing things. But no complaints from any of us here, because we quite like people repairing things! Doesn't matter that we've seen it before.
On sports, properly, that I am interested in: Next weekend I'm officiating at my second event of the season. The first was before Lockdown and I should have been heavily involved in... eight or so..? during the period which were just outright cancelled and haven't been even tentatively rescheduled. The autumn section of the programme looks to be as agreed at the end of last year (a couple of cancellations, but I was not going to be involved in either) though there'll be probably still be the Social Distancing changes involved. As already tested by one or two events already (re)staged post-Lockdown, locally, that weren't ever in my original list.
Post by: scriver on August 01, 2020, 03:29:08 pm
I don't think this qualifies as appealing to cultural biases.
I was originally going to respond to this with "he said twenty minutes after unironically saying 'sportsball'"
but then you ended the post with
Quote
hile I don't like mass sports or their cultures and could be expected to be biased against them for that reason, I don't dislike them for no reason either, but because of what I've seen from people engaged in them
and
Quote
but we do in fact live in a world full of violent bigoted drunkards
and there's just too much lack of self-reflection there to choose just one
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 01, 2020, 03:32:29 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 04:45:43 pm
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51582717_Family_Violence_and_Football_The_Effect_of_Unexpected_Emotional_Cues_on_Violent_Behavior
And here's a critique of the gender-based Duluth model. Note that what's proposed in the paper you cited is one of the things noted in the below paper as being something the genderists are against:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222822395_The_Duluth_Model_A_data-impervious_paradigm_and_a_failed_strategy
It's actually taboo to state that domestic violence is related to anger because that's seen as sidelining the patriarchal control theory.
The first paper, the one you cited notes that police reports of violence in general are higher in a time-window after an upset loss:
Quote
The strong impact of random external factors on the rate of family violence provides compelling evidence that at least some portion of family violence arises through a breakdown of control, rather than as instrumental behavior driven by purely rational choice
Ooh, you shouldn't be quoting that paper, it's a renegade paper. "instrumental behavior" is code for patriarchal control mechanism. For example if you held that a man hit a woman in order to reassert his control that would definitely be an "instrumental behavior", because it had purpose behind it. To say that it isn't and is instead caused by an emotional breakdown of rationality is actually highly taboo. If you read the (second) paper I linked, the authors write a fair bit about how mainstream feminist writers on this subject are heavily against the notion that family violence is due to poor impulse control, because that's harder to shoehorn into the ideological model they're working with.
Quote
economists have developed models with a similar risk of breakdown in rationality to explain ... drug use by addicts ... and other failures of self-control ... In this paper we specify and test a simple behavioral model in which violence arises when interactions between the members of conflict-prone families escalate to the point of physical danger.
Ooh, "conflict-prone families" there, and "breakdown of rationality" and "failures of self control". They're getting dangerously off-message in this whole paper. No wonder we haven't heard about this one ;)
Also note that the size of the effect is about the same as the effect of having warm weather, and about 1/4 the size of the effect of a major holiday.
Quote
an 8 percent impact is comparable to the effect of a hot day (over 80 degrees Fahrenheit), and is about one-fourth the magnitude of the spike in violence on a major holiday like Thanksgiving or the Fourth of July
A hot day? 27 degrees celsius? And that's the same size as the effect of this football-induced violence? Major stuff here. So ... a major football loss has the same effect on family conflict as turning the thermostat up by about 4 degrees, or the aircon breaking down on a not especially hot day.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 05:54:09 pm
Post by: misko27 on August 01, 2020, 05:57:18 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 05:59:19 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 06:04:03 pm
At this point I wouldn't be at all surprised if Bolsonaro has a sudden turn for the worse and goes into ICU with serious complications.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/01/face-will-probably-get-coronavirus-jair-bolsonaro-tells-brazilians/
He says he has "mouldy lungs" due to sitting around for three weeks. That's not really a thing, is it?
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 06:15:56 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 01, 2020, 06:45:43 pm
He says he has "mouldy lungs" due to sitting around for three weeks. That's not really a thing, is it?Not from just sitting around, no. Mold can cause respiratory issues, but that requires exposure, not just idleness.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 01, 2020, 06:52:23 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 01, 2020, 09:06:18 pm
Do we know why heat affects violence levels? Why football affects violence levels?
Being too hot is quite a frustrating experience, and football also can be frustrating at times.
Some people react to being frustrated by being violent.
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 09:29:40 pm
Researchers note that DV perpetrators often share a common set of beliefs, so they see about stamping out those beliefs, and assume that it's that set of beliefs that got them started on the whole damned path, so they make a bunch of TV adverts challenging those beliefs and think they're preventing the whole problem. Yet, there's so far not an ounce of evidence that they're having any effect whatsoever.
The reason is that the logic itself is completely ass-backwards. If someone has a self-destructive (or other-destructive) behavior, what is more likely is that the belief system that supports it is entirely post-hoc rationalization (https://www.patheos.com/blogs/tippling/2013/11/14/post-hoc-rationalisation-reasoning-our-intuition-and-changing-our-minds/). Say someone has a massive porn habit, they watch a lot of porn, and probably have a whole bunch of thoughts and ideas that rationalize that this is all ok. They might seek out political opinions that say it's ok, articles saying it's ok, etc etc etc, a huge amount of confirmation-bias. They didn't start out believing all the things you need to believe to make that ok, they started out gradually and as they got deeper into it they sought out post-hoc rationalizations for why it's ok. Given that, if you have someone who's harmed others, they're likely to concoct post-hoc rationalizations to justify their actions. But those justifications aren't the actual triggers. The triggers are in fact things like childhood brain damage, suffering violence as a child and other things that are known to lead to impulse control in adulthood. The "belief system" bullshit is in fact all the post-hoc stuff to justify their own actions. You can't cure the problem by challenging the beliefs, since if you do that then the perpetrators will just come up with new justifications.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24265146/
Quote
Conclusions: Perpetrators of domestic violence present high mental rigidity, as well as low levels of inhibition, processing speed, verbal and attention skills, and abstract reasoning. Additionally, perpetrators show working and long play memory impairments. Moreover, those deficits could be impaired by traumatic brain injuries and alcohol abuse and/or dependence. Nonetheless, these both variables are not enough to explain the deficits. Functional abnormalities on the prefrontal and occipital cortex, fusiform gyrus, posterior cingulate gyrus, hippocampus, thalamus and amygdala could be associated with these impairments. An analysis of these mechanisms may assist in the development of neuropsychological rehabilitation programmes that could help improve current therapies.
^ this is basically taboo to mention as being part of the problem, but I'd argue it's almost all of the underlying problem, and is the same underlying problem of why we have so many people with mental illnesses in prison. We're locking up the mentally ill at records rates for violent crimes, and people want to tell us that an entire class of violent crimes isn't related to mental illness? Unlikely. The world just isn't compartmentalized in such a convenient way.
Broken people and no resources to treat them is the real underlying issue. The rationalizations that these people come up with to justfy being fucked up aren't something that should be taken without a grain of salt as the "cause" of the problem. Fund mental health. TV adverts to not be a baddie are ineffective, but that's the approach politicians have chosen to appear to be "doing something(tm)" about this problem, and it's a lot cheaper and provides more of those sweet tax dollars to your mates who own TV stations. I guess we can go to plan B of filling up the prisons with all these people. That approach has worked wonders for African American neighborhoods in the USA.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 09:46:17 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 10:06:55 pm
Why would it be taboo to mention that damage to the brain might play a part in behavior problems? That actually makes much more sense than the advert approach. Mental health should be funded. Why is it getting defunded when mental health problems are rising?
Because some people build there whole career around one specific thing, and then when evidence comes along challenging the centrality of their ideas, they become hostile to it. It's not just in this field.
This is a pretty good article outlining the different perspectives:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/01/seeking-cure-domestic-violence/604168/
Clipping a little out, and this can't do justice to the topic, so read the article:
Quote
At the time, little was known about the causes of domestic violence. Many psychologists viewed abuse as the side effect of some other difficulty—alcoholism, an inability to handle stress or anger, poor communication skills.^ So this was the prevailing belief about DV
Quote
Like many contemporary feminists, Pence saw the phenomenon differently. Abuse, in her view, wasn’t an individual problem, but a social one. For millennia, men had been taught that it was their right to control women, by force if necessary. Domestic violence was the means by which a man exercised this power on an interpersonal level. Far from a dysfunction, it was a rational tactic—a tool for patriarchy.^ In this bit, you see why I said the paper MetalSlimeHunt linked was "anti-feminist". The academic feminist view is that the DV is a rational tool of control, so when the paper on football-related violence said that it was an "irrational" loss of control, they were actually directly challenging this narrative, even if they did so in nicely-couched professional language.
Quote
The Duluth curriculum’s innovation, of attacking the societal roots of abuse, met with approval from activists and victims’ advocates. Lawmakers found in the groups a convenient means of dealing with the new wave of domestic-violence arrests. Over the next three decades, the curriculum spread rapidly, until programs advancing the theory that domestic violence was underpinned by sexism had been established in every state in the country. Over time, the “Duluth model” would come to refer to those specific gatherings, and their pedagogical focus on dismantling patriarchal norms, rather than to its original plan for coordinated community action.^ So, here you see that it became the dominant narrative.
Quote
But as their popularity grew, Duluth’s men’s groups faced a backlash. As researchers began conducting more studies, they found that the early psychologists who had ascribed domestic violence to individuals’ underlying problems, such as addiction and trauma, were, to an extent, correct. Studies showed that the Duluth approach, with its broad social message, had little effect on whether men actually re-offended. It was also criticized as ill-suited for addressing assaults committed by women and within same-sex partnerships.
So, like anything that's just too darn convenient, it all fell apart. And like any model under fire, they fired back, generally a scatter-shot attack at other academics for doing research that contradicted the Duluth Model of domestic violence. Note also that they get US state funding since courts mandate them to treat offenders, so they're making $$$$ in this. It's not just ideological, the Duluth Model is an industry.
Quote
Most of the men in the room, it became clear, had issues with substances, generally alcohol or opioids. Facilitators generally like to give the men free rein on what topics they explore—Miller told me exit interviews showed that participants learn most from hearing each other’s experiences—but are quick to question men who cite addiction as a reason for their violence. For a facilitator, allowing the men to avoid accountability by placing the blame on substances would be a form of collusion.^ Imagine if this was an actual therapist, but if you ever steered the conversation towards your personal problems, he went "woah there, let's put the emphasis back onto what a fuck-up you are ..."
Trying to shift topics, Rouse asked the class to consider how their abuse had affected their families...
In fact, it's in the manual they give you when running these things, that if the perp states drug or alcohol abuse, or having suffered violence themselves, as a factor in their own violent behavior, you're meant to challenge that, or your "colluding" with the perp, and you're supposed to instead point them at a feminist textbook and shoehorn their "privileged" behavior into that, until you've got them rabbiting the stock phrases. THIS is why and how they're hostile to researchers looking into drug, alcohol and other factors.
The points against it are:
1) It doesn't work. Offenders going through the program are no less likely to re-offend than people who didn't get sent to a program
2) Ideologically inflexible. It's an "i've got a hammer so every problem is a nail" type of belief.
3) financial vested interests in keeping rival research out.
4) fails any test of universality. The Duluth Model (which is basically the standard model of domestic violence now) can't conceptually deal with women who are themselves abusers. It can somewhat deal with male victims of male abuse, but the kicker is that it entirely fails female victims of female abuse. In the Duluth Model, such women can't exist so you get horror stories of lesbians who have suffered partner abuse unable to access help services, since the system goes "does not compute!"
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 01, 2020, 10:20:40 pm
Post by: Eschar on August 01, 2020, 10:23:51 pm
Which is damn weird as far as I can tell, since it looks like Duluth model would be happy to say that domestic violence stems from a form of control (which, well, it's a threat, so I suppose it by definition is), and control is a desire that shows up regardless of gender or orientation.
Post by: Reelya on August 01, 2020, 10:39:26 pm
Re: Duluth not recognizing DV except within its little ideological bounds:
Which is damn weird as far as I can tell, since it looks like Duluth model would be happy to say that domestic violence stems from a form of control (which, well, it's a threat, so I suppose it by definition is), and control is a desire that shows up regardless of gender or orientation.
"regardless of gender or orientation" is just about the last thing these specific people would ever say. Usually I'm loath to say "marxist" about anything because it's not relevant, but in this case the analysis behind the Duluth thing is entirely based on a Marxist class-conflict model. The reason they side-step what you're talking about is because they can't fit that into the rigid class hierarchy they've defined. It doesn't fit the model so it doesn't exist, basically. Or more to the point they claim that anything that doesn't fit the model is collateral damage of the whole thing, and that when patriarchy is overthrown, then naturally any domestic violence in gay relationships will just go away by itself.
I'll end with this statement, written by the creator of the Duluth Model, about 25 years after she created it:
Quote
“Many of the men I interviewed did not seem to articulate a desire for power over their partner,” she wrote. “Although I relentlessly took every opportunity to point out to men in the groups that they were so motivated and merely in denial, the fact that few men ever articulated such a desire went unnoticed by me and many of my coworkers. Eventually, we realized that we were finding what we had already predetermined to find.”
So it's a 45 year old rigid model, which has been disavowed by its creator as being, well, a load of shit, at the end of the day. But they'd already opened Pandora's Box at that point so it was out of her hands. This is basically the plot of "Life of Brian" at this point.
Post by: Eschar on August 02, 2020, 09:21:35 am
Post by: Reelya on August 04, 2020, 06:04:21 pm
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/coronavirus-victoria-sovereign-citizens-tactic-infuriating-cops/news-story/29a57a1004bd32780c5f078d501b61da
I really don't get the thinking through here. Usually these SC's say that the governments actions are illegal, that legislation doesn't apply to you if you don't believe in it, and say they're going to take it all the way to the 'high court' or similar if they get any penalties. Who exactly do they think appoints the members of the high court? Realpolitik is that laws apply to you because the people with the guns are saying laws apply to you, and what exactly do they think the basis of the courts power is? "You don't have the power to lock me up!" um, sorry but they do have the power to do that, and they lock people up every day who don't wish to be locked up and don't agree that the laws apply to them.
Do they really think they're going to be arrested, take that to court, of all places, school the judge in Freedom Speak then have the judge go "I see the errors of my ways, you're outside my jurisdiction, i tip my hat to you, good fellow, you're free to go!"
Post by: Jopax on August 05, 2020, 07:39:58 am
Post by: misko27 on August 05, 2020, 10:01:30 am
Welp a coworker got a fever yesterday, might be nothing, might be the plague. This is after he's been to two weddings in the past ten or so days.For what it's worth, according to my Contact-tracing training1 he is considered infectious two days before he showed symptoms but is most infectious the first day.
1Granted the NY Contact Tracing program has struggled (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/nyregion/new-york-contact-tracing.html), and just the other day the NYC Health Commissioner resigned (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/nyregion/oxiris-barbot-health-commissioner-resigns.html) over clashes with the Mayor. The main objection was moving the contact tracing program from the Health Department, which is experienced in contact tracing, to NYC Health & Hospitals, which represents the cities public hospitals program, as well as other issues with the Mayor.
Post by: Jopax on August 05, 2020, 10:18:11 am
It's mostly going to mess with my plans to visit friends who can't really travel atm for various reasons and of course being cooped up in a tiny room for two weeks straight is bound to drive me mad, especially since it's the summer and I don't have an AC in here, just a heating system disguised as a PC.
That is all provided I don't actually end up super sick or anything, which, considering my recent streak of luck might as well happen to put the shit cherry on top of an already shit year.
Ninja edit:
Yeah, that still gives a small window of opportunity since I did interact with him on Monday, even if it was brief as we did a shift change.
Post by: McTraveller on August 05, 2020, 08:24:49 pm
I suppose in the long run it's not that big an inconvenience, as we are fortunate enough to be able to work from home and have flexible employers. But there are many many families that are going to be screwed.
Post by: Frumple on August 06, 2020, 06:44:05 am
Post by: McTraveller on August 06, 2020, 10:09:37 am
Zero is an infeasible answer, but other than that I'm still working through it all. Education is a tender spot for me - having educators in my family, it makes me very sad that society is essentially sacrificing education for short-term changes in life expectancy. You will not be able to convince me that quality of education will be maintained with this mandatory remote learning.
Although to be fair, in the school board meeting they rightly pointed out that in-person learning would be impacted too due to the massive burden of just dealing with all the protections they would have to deal with like masks, cleaning, and the like. My assertion is that is less an impact that forcing everyone home, but I suppose it may indeed be splitting hairs at that point.
Post by: scriver on August 06, 2020, 10:36:33 am
Post by: NJW2000 on August 06, 2020, 11:03:51 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 06, 2020, 11:36:44 am
(there's known, persistent organ damage and aftereffects (chronic fatigue syndrome) of having this virus)What is the risk of developing such complications?
Post by: McTraveller on August 06, 2020, 11:45:41 am
Sending your eight year old to school where even one immunocompromised child (never mind teachers, janitors, grandparents, bus drivers, etc) may die in continuation of a presently untenable status quo is not an acceptable public health risk.
Not to you personally - but this is a good example of a statement with unfounded certainty - "if one child dies, it's unacceptable". It's difficult yes - but is it unacceptable? You can't reduce risk to zero - so what's the threshold? 1 in 10k? 1 in 100k?
I mean I'm looking at statistics for CA right now because it came up first in my search. Out of 48,500** cases in the 17 and younger age group, there is one death*. This means it's outright dishonest to say "think of the children.***" The data just doesn't support that conclusion - so at least be honest and say it's about the adult staff and family.
I can appreciate the argument that it's more about the staff and family - the mortality is much higher as age increases, so if kids do "bring it home" then is a more broad secondary impact. Isn't there a way to both have school and protect the more at-risk groups? If not, then so be it, but I just find that sad that we can't "make that work."
*I refuse to comment on any potential "long term" health complications. I just can't (as an engineer) accept the claims that "the disease has severe long-term effects" when we have only seen effects for 8 months; I don't have enough data or understanding to let such things affect my short-term (1-5 years) decisions. I do believe that there are real instances of severe complications - but are they enough to sway my views on risk? Not yet.
**Yes, yes, "so far".
*** There are a total of 60M people in the US aged 14 or younger. This would suggest 1255 total deaths in that age group if every single one of them caught the disease. I actually am confused by my local school board on this one; they claimed that in our elementary school of 600 students the data shows that we would expect 13 student deaths and 2 staff deaths. This is goofy; my state's official numbers are that there are 0 (yes zero!) confirmed or probable deaths in the 0-19 year age bracket. The staff may be correct though; I don't know the staff demographics or count.
Post by: Zangi on August 06, 2020, 11:52:54 am
Is such a nice dream, the hope for actual competent implementation.
Post by: McTraveller on August 06, 2020, 12:25:53 pm
*Well, it was up to that in MMIX. Who knows what it will be in MMXX....
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 12:31:31 pm
For a start, the school needs various types of insurance, they need everything checked out for OH&S certification, they need to audit things like security, safety, they have a range of IT and reporting requirements, they have equipment to maintain, they have support staff. And I didn't even get to their utilities bills: electricity, phone, gas, internet. It's a lot more than "paying teachers" and buying boxes of "school supplies".
https://smallbusiness.chron.com/percentage-expenses-should-payroll-be-30772.html
Here they say employee compensation generally makes up 20-30% of a business' expenses. The Average salary for a teacher in the USA is about $60K, and there are about 1 teacher per 15 students. So that means about $4000 a year per student just in direct teacher salaries. The link also states that direct wages only make up about 70% of employee compensation (consider payroll taxes, health insurance, parental leave, other overheads), so that brings just teacher employment costs to around $6000 per student per year (about $90K per teacher on average, split over 15 students). But then you need to add in all the other costs for running the school, it can easily blow out to over $10K. For capital infrastructure like new school buildings, I actually doubt they're even including those costs in the per-student figures they release.
Post by: Dostoevsky on August 06, 2020, 12:52:30 pm
What is the risk of developing such complications?
As McTraveller notes it's too early to definitively tell, but some (not all) of the studies thus far have been pretty concerning. There was a Reuters article (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-effects/scientists-just-beginning-to-understand-the-many-health-problems-caused-by-covid-19-idUSKBN23X1BZ) about a months and a half ago that I posted in this thread that discussed some of the results; resharing some parts of interest:
Quote
“We thought this was only a respiratory virus. Turns out, it goes after the pancreas. It goes after the heart. It goes after the liver, the brain, the kidney and other organs. We didn’t appreciate that in the beginning,” said Dr. Eric Topol, a cardiologist and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California.
In addition to respiratory distress, patients with COVID-19 can experience blood clotting disorders that can lead to strokes, and extreme inflammation that attacks multiple organ systems. The virus can also cause neurological complications that range from headache, dizziness and loss of taste or smell to seizures and confusion.
. . . .
Studies are just getting underway to understand the long-term effects of infection, Jay Butler, deputy director of infectious diseases at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters in a telephone briefing on Thursday.
“We hear anecdotal reports of people who have persistent fatigue, shortness of breath,” Butler said. “How long that will last is hard to say.”
While coronavirus symptoms typically resolve in two or three weeks, an estimated 1 in 10 experience prolonged symptoms, Dr. Helen Salisbury of the University of Oxford wrote in the British Medical Journal on Tuesday.
. . . .
Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious diseases at Northwestern Medicine, reviewed current scientific literature and found about half of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had neurological complications, such as dizziness, decreased alertness, difficulty concentrating, disorders of smell and taste, seizures, strokes, weakness and muscle pain.
Anecdotally there have been individuals who have had symptoms like shortness of breath last for months after getting sick, but that's just anecdotally. Given that there are a fair number of significant physical damage (e.g. scarring of the lungs, scarring of the heart), I think it's fairly safe to say that some people get badly damaged in a long-term way, but we can't tell how widespread that is yet.
(Just like we still can't really seem to get a consistent death rate number, I assume.)
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 01:10:17 pm
In Sweden for example they went for the herd immunity response however their economy is still faltering because how many people knowingly expose themselves to a widespread plague. Just ignore the plague and keep working and shopping and partying and playing like normal. It didn't work.
They're reporting that Sweden isn't quite as far in recession as other European nations, however this is less convincing when you compare before and after in a relative sense:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354
They're not really doing a whole lot better that Germany, despite Germany being in a much deeper lockdown. That's because the more virus there is around the less people decide to engage.
Post by: Frumple on August 06, 2020, 01:12:43 pm
I can appreciate the argument that it's more about the staff and family - the mortality is much higher as age increases, so if kids do "bring it home" then is a more broad secondary impact. Isn't there a way to both have school and protect the more at-risk groups? If not, then so be it, but I just find that sad that we can't "make that work."I mean, it's distance learning (either via online or homeschooling). That's your one option that doesn't more or less inevitably lead to "grandma's little typhoid mary". That's it. There's no option two. Bunker down, stay the fuck away from the plague pit construction that is in-classroom schooling, and cool our collective tits until a vaccine shows up or something besides staying away from people manages to mitigate the effects of the plague to something below "one out of every hundred or so people die". This may take a year or two or three, which sucks, but sucks much less than the seven digit death toll we're looking at if the US doesn't goddamn mitigate the spread of the plague.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 06, 2020, 01:23:30 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 06, 2020, 01:28:51 pm
Post by: Iduno on August 06, 2020, 01:38:03 pm
Eh, dunno. This whole thing has me pondering the question, "just what is an acceptable level of public health risk in the first place?"
Zero is an infeasible answer, but other than that I'm still working through it all. Education is a tender spot for me - having educators in my family, it makes me very sad that society is essentially sacrificing education for short-term changes in life expectancy. You will not be able to convince me that quality of education will be maintained with this mandatory remote learning.
Although to be fair, in the school board meeting they rightly pointed out that in-person learning would be impacted too due to the massive burden of just dealing with all the protections they would have to deal with like masks, cleaning, and the like. My assertion is that is less an impact that forcing everyone home, but I suppose it may indeed be splitting hairs at that point.
Yeah, educators and retail/customer-service employees generally don't get treated like humans. At least educators get paid better than the others.
*shrug* DOACs are less of an issue than traditional AVKs. But of course experience of their in children is fairly limited because its not exactly common to have children with clotting disorders. Which is of course the point: if we are talking about how many children will need anticoagulation and how many teachers will end up in ICU, maybe we should rethink before reopening?
Especially when distance-learning technology is as good as it is. In elementary schools, where the children probably can't be home alone, you may need to consider in-person teaching, but not much need above that.
Post by: Starver on August 06, 2020, 01:50:15 pm
Different age, different country, different educational culture, different political masters. And of course no problem with packing classes in as tight as you needed, in order to make the limited educational budget stretch across a whole catchment of kids.
For various reasons, that should not be the case these days.
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 02:26:15 pm
I'm still pondering at one teacher for 15 students. Back in my youth, classes tended to be 30+ (except for the less popular options, perhaps, where were choices).
Different age, different country, different educational culture, different political masters. And of course no problem with packing classes in as tight as you needed, in order to make the limited educational budget stretch across a whole catchment of kids.
For various reasons, that should not be the case these days.
Think of it this way: the average class size may be 30 students. But how many different classes did you have? Only one teacher the whole week, or did you have different teachers for different classes?
Teachers spend some proportion of the time directly teaching students, and some other proportion of the time in training on new material, lesson preparation, grading work.
So to work out how many teachers you need, you need to take average class size, then work out what percentage of a teacher's work time is spent directly teaching classes. Then you can do the math for the rough number of teachers you need to hire per enrolled student.
Hence "average class size" isn't the same thing as teacher-student ratio, they're measuring different things.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 06, 2020, 02:31:35 pm
Especially when distance-learning technology is as good as it is. In elementary schools, where the children probably can't be home alone, you may need to consider in-person teaching, but not much need above that.
Actually, distance learning has been rather ineffective where it had been put in place...
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 06, 2020, 02:45:25 pm
It's outrageous to me, but he's very pessimistic, and politicians have demonstrated poor judgment over and over and over again, so that's the only criterion that gave credence to its 'plausibility'.
Post by: Eschar on August 06, 2020, 02:47:26 pm
I don't remember the source, so
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 02:55:40 pm
My friend espoused a conspiracy theory that I didn't really have evidence to call bullshit on, but was plausible enough to understand why he believed it: that Trump and Republicans deliberately fubar'd the Coronavirus response and allowed it to spread unchecked in the States because they thought that it would only harm large major cities where most democratic voters are, and leave rural and suburban areas, where more republican voters are, mostly unscathed.
Actually he's not quite cynical enough. It's not an infected/not-infected scenario. The thing is, if a disease kills *marginally* more of the opposing supporters than it does of your supporters, then that's a net gain. So you push everyone under the bus, but the opposing supporters got pushed under two buses. They don't actually give a shit about the "Republican base" any more than they do about "Americans" in general. They'll happily bomb a neighboring country and kill 2 million people if that furthers some greed-related goals. Do we seriously think that they're all suddenly hearts on sleeves once you have a Green Card? Daddy Trump isn't in fact all adoring of his little party foot soldiers, he probably mostly despises them.
But to be honest I think they thought that they could just wing it until the election, they were assuming this was a winter disease and closing the border and warming weather would prevent it being a problem until Trump was re-elected, and in the meantime they could prop the stock market up with big talk from Trump. The real fact is they discounted exponential growth. Remember when there were 100+ infections and they were scoffing at that, since that's nothing. 1 in a million infected. It wasn't that long ago, really. They did actually assume this would peter out and not go the way it's going.
Post by: Zangi on August 06, 2020, 02:56:22 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 06, 2020, 02:58:30 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 06, 2020, 04:31:14 pm
Yeah, educators and retail/customer-service employees generally don't get treated like humans. At least educators get paid better than the others.That's damning with extremely faint praise. Educators, especially front line public school ones, generally aren't paid worth shit in the US. Especially relative to the education requirements and general workload.
Though re: the urban/rural impact thing, the crow plague is hitting rural areas plenty hard and largely continuing to get worse, too. We're not immune out here and the lifestyles of most rural folks don't, at all, actually meaningfully inhibit spread. It's just taking longer to get to people, because there's fewer of us out here and we're somewhat more spread out.
It's possible the shitgibbon in chief and the GOP in general thought that was something worth trying, but if it was it was a self-own of historic proportions. It'd be hard to tell that sort of malice from their actual staggering incompetence and shithattery, tho', so the world may never know.
Post by: scriver on August 06, 2020, 05:03:12 pm
In Sweden for example they went for the herd immunity response however their economy is still faltering because how many people knowingly expose themselves to a widespread plague. Just ignore the plague and keep working and shopping and partying and playing like normal. It didn't work.
This is straight up wrong, Reelya. Herd immunity was never part of Sweden's strategy, the idea that it was was completely invented by media. Sweden's authorities have been explicitely clear from the start, and repeated over and over again, that the only goal of the Swedish strategy is to keep the amount of patients needing hospital care below the hospital limits, and that herd immunity would at most be coincidental to this and not something they aimed for or counted on.
The idea that we just went on as normal is also wrong. We just didn't close the country down. We are still doing social distancing and aren't allowed to meet at all in groups larger than... I believe it is at 50.
Post by: misko27 on August 06, 2020, 05:05:37 pm
And so they ended up in the scenario of playing Chicken with a cliff and, convinced the other side would swerve first, confidently strode directly off the edge.
Post by: Starver on August 06, 2020, 05:10:41 pm
Think of it this way: the average class size may be 30 students. But how many different classes did you have? Only one teacher the whole week, or did you have different teachers for different classes?
Spoiler: In Long (click to show/hide)
such forms for the whole year of intake (from ~8 Primary 'feeders'? But newly regrouped and maintained as those new groupings). The form, as a block, then generally moved to the same designated Maths/Science/English/whatever class, and resident subject-'specialist'[2] teacher, whatever the schedule dictated, for each single- or double-blocked lesson, doing an endless Musical Chairs with each of the other same-year Forms (and all other years) for most classes[3]. By the 3rd year, IIRC, there was an 'option' system for Science. Previously ?3? forms split across three science labs with general use, but then we were asked to "choose two" and (according to the numbers who had chosen every combination) reshuffled to use specifically a Chemistry lab, a Biology Lab, a Physics lab, as appropriate, demolishing the 'Form boundaries' for the given slots alone.In Short: I'm mostly interested in how many teachers each pupil has class time with (or, rather, how many pupils demand the time of one teacher, simultaneously). Coming from a time well before 'teaching assistants' (so "1½ teachers per class", maybe, you might argue) it seemed fairly constant throughout statutory education years (most of my time in education) to have 30:1-ish direct experience and, even if it's hard to nail down the specifics at other times, certainly during Primary years there were no 'hidden' teachers working/idling away while their colleagues were keeping us busy learning our 12-times-table/whatever. I'm fairly sure there wasn't an entire mirror-universe that at least half our teachers inhabited whilst the other at-most-half held our classes.
(My mother was a Temporary Supply teacher, also, and by far not the only one (apart from the Permanent Supply teacher mentioned in the spoiler, we had a good half-dozen 'regularly irregular' supply-teachers at my school, with my mother working elsewhere only but often on the same site as several of them when they were similarly elsewhere) and though the not-so-good Geography teacher kept his class barely ticking over while being mostly not at his desk, you'd imagine that if there was sufficient 'shadow staff' already on the payroll then they'd be able to kludge an 'internal supply' situation, like the French-but-really-Maths teacher I also mentioned.)
What's my point? Not sure it's relevent any more. But I was just very much surprised to see 15:1 (or was it 1:15?) mentioned as a working figure, based on pre-Covid times that I coukd relate to. Though in continuing-Covid times, I would expect this, ideally (at least by taking half the 30 pupils and arranging a 'self-directed learning' group whilst the other half is attending their own class-bubble), if only as a reactionary/precautionary measure.
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 05:13:46 pm
To put rounder figures on it, say that the av. class size was 24, 6 classes per day, and each teacher teaches 4 classes per day. This is a fairly normal workload we expect from a teacher, they're not expected to do a full 6 hours of class instruction per day. So, you need an average of 1.5 teachers per class worth of students, which works out as a 1:16 ratio.
Post by: Frumple on August 06, 2020, 05:19:58 pm
To be honest barring a few hurricanes (none of which were major; in spite of my northeastern origins I feel qualified to discuss what a major hurricane is), the coronavirus was the very first crisis the administration faced that was not of its own making.Man, I say this with as much respect as I can, but fuck off with that. A cat five fucking bumrushed the florida panhandle in 2018, and we're still picking shit up from it two years later. The scale literally doesn't get more major than that. Pretty sure Harvey hard fucked texas a year or two earlier than that, and I think I'm forgetting at least one more serious hurricane for this administration. The crow plague isn't even remotely the first crisis not of their own making the shitgibbon's faced and been found hella' wanting in relation to.
... any case, so far as the teacher thing goes, so far as I'm aware most teachers were/still are handling 50-60 students per day at a minimum. 20-ish classroom, 2-3 classes per day. Whatever the actual ratio is to employed teachers vs. students, that means roughly fuck-all for how many students any particularly teacher works with. Least from what I've seen about the only time you'd actually have one teacher handling 15-ish students is with very small areas and their special ed students. Everywhere else you'd have a teacher teaching, testing, and grading for several dozen as a baseline. The hours or some statistical asshattery might come out to 1:15, but that is not even remotely representative of what a teacher deals with in reality. Most I know would borderline kill to only be dealing with 15 students. It's literally many a teacher's dream, and damn sure not their reality.
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 05:24:53 pm
... any case, so far as the teacher thing goes, so far as I'm aware most teachers were/still are handling 50-60 students per day at a minimum. Whatever the actual ratio is to employed teachers vs. students, that means roughly fuck-all for how many students any particularly teacher works with. Least from what I've seen about the only time you'd actually have one teacher handling 15-ish students is with very small areas and their special ed students. Everywhere else you'd have a teacher teaching, testing, and grading for several dozen as a baseline. The hours or some statistical asshattery might come out to 1:15, but that is not even remotely representative of what a teacher deals with in reality. Most I know would borderline kill to only be dealing with 15 students. It's literally many a teacher's dream, and damn sure not their reality.
I never said that. 15:1 is the teaching staff to total student ratio. That, and the average size class, and the total number of students in all the classes a specific teacher teaches in a day aren't the same thing. The reason class sizes are higher than the teacher:student ratio is precisely because not all teachers are teaching all the time. And remember the context of why I brought that up in the first place. It was to point out how much of the student costs were in wages. Merely dividing the teacher's wages by whatever the class size is misses the fact that you need more teachers than that to cover you since teachers aren't actually teaching constantly.
But each of those students you mentioned, they're the shared responsibility of at least 4 different teachers, so saying a teacher needs to deal with 60 students a day isn't the whole story either. If you have 4 teachers and the class size was 15, and each class gets a class with each of the teachers per day, then each teacher is in fact interacting with 60 students per day. But that's astronomically different to say, a 1 teacher school with 60 students, so just saying that's how many students they interact with in a day doesn't actually tell you anything.
Shrinking the class size but keeping the teacher ratio the same would actually be harder on the teachers, not easier. Now, instead of a class of size 24, and each teacher averaging 4 classes per day, and getting 2 hours for prep, they'd be doing 6 classes per day of 16 students, and have to do extra prep on their lunch break. But the average number of students they interact with wouldn't have changed at all, and the "class size" metric that people prize so much would actually look better, but only on paper.
Post by: Starver on August 06, 2020, 05:33:24 pm
they were assuming this was a winter disease and closing the border and warming weather would prevent it being a problem until Trump was re-elected,"...'closing' an ideologically-compatible border..."
They didn't by any means stop travel from China, though it seems they didn't get too unlucky from the large amount of travellers they didn't stop from coming from there.
They didn't stop travel from Europe in time to stop the China->Europe->US transmission from happening (into cities most world-wide travellers would like to arrive in, and then most home-grown ones would return to - whether by accident or design those being mostly Blue-hued places).
They have long spoken of closing the Mexico border, but it seems Mexico closed to the US much quicker (reminded of The Day After Tomorrow, or I think it was...). And Canada seems to have done the same up top.
The sole 'success' seems to have been not letting that cruise-ship land its passengers (ill and not-yet-ill) onto the shore, where they could have been bussed to perhaps some army camp (called something 'patriotic' like "Fort Pickett" - no, just checked, that exists - so, "Camp Stonewall"?) where they could be better cared for; kill, cure or proven dodged the bullet. And that was as futile a gesture as it was inhumane.
Or maybe I'm just cynical.
Post by: Frumple on August 06, 2020, 05:41:42 pm
(called something 'patriotic' like "Fort Pickett" - no, just checked, that exists - so, "Camp Stonewall"?)Already taken (https://www.campstonewall.org/), though not an army camp.
Post by: Starver on August 06, 2020, 05:43:56 pm
It's not half, because the average class size in American schools is about 23.I think we'd have killed for that class-size. If we, as pupils knew enough at the time to care. And of course knew enough to kill fellow pupils to achieve that aim. (Some would have killed teachers, self-defeatingly. Probably because we didn't have enough teachers to teach them maths correctly.)
Post by: Starver on August 06, 2020, 05:55:35 pm
I double checked Jackson's 'legacy' for any signs of one (as I had with Pickett) before posting, but obviously that flew under its/my radar.(called something 'patriotic' like "Fort Pickett" - no, just checked, that exists - so, "Camp Stonewall"?)Already taken (https://www.campstonewall.org/), though not an army camp.
Never mind, I still like the name, even if the 'real thing' isn't what I was imagining it might be. (Actually, I was veering over into visions of the original Stonewall Drag Queens being drilled in all sorts of Urban Warfare, etc, perhaps with a heavy influence of this (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7-2jLLMdEBw)... ;))
Post by: misko27 on August 06, 2020, 06:39:37 pm
And yet in spite of it Florida still exists, which is the real disaster. >:(To be honest barring a few hurricanes (none of which were major; in spite of my northeastern origins I feel qualified to discuss what a major hurricane is), the coronavirus was the very first crisis the administration faced that was not of its own making.Man, I say this with as much respect as I can, but fuck off with that. A cat five fucking bumrushed the florida panhandle in 2018, and we're still picking shit up from it two years later. The scale literally doesn't get more major than that. Pretty sure Harvey hard fucked texas a year or two earlier than that, and I think I'm forgetting at least one more serious hurricane for this administration. The crow plague isn't even remotely the first crisis not of their own making the shitgibbon's faced and been found hella' wanting in relation to.
Right well I underestimated Harvey a bit and I'll retract "major hurricane" but let me reemphasize: I said crisis, and in the grand scheme of things hurricanes are not really a crisis in terms of what an administration actually does unless it's a very unusual incident. Most of it is handled by the "automatic" sections of government, i.e. FEMA. The President, and the White House as a whole, is by-and-large not required for their decision-making capacities during those events. How well organized the federal response is, how well-funded, how thorough; these are things that flow almost exclusively from systemic (i.e. funding, leadership, the training and administrative skill of the organization) factors, and while the administration has a huge impact on those, it's only a crisis if there is some sort of unusual failure there (i.e. Katrina, or in fact Beirut's explosion).
If it's just "this is a horrible ongoing thing and many people have been hurt and killed and"... well that's just everything nowadays isn't it? Opioid epidemic, infrastructure failing, etc. etc. etc. Crises, as I'm defining them, are something unusual, long-lasting enough that political decisions have visible effect or lack thereof (yet, sharp enough that it seemed to come all at once). From the OPEC embargo, to the financial crisis: the distinguishing factor is high-level decision-making. Which, most of the time isn't really all that important as all the other more boring stuff like the secretaries, the legislation, the departments, etc. But sometimes it matters.
Post by: Reelya on August 06, 2020, 06:40:21 pm
It's not half, because the average class size in American schools is about 23.I think we'd have killed for that class-size. If we, as pupils knew enough at the time to care. And of course knew enough to kill fellow pupils to achieve that aim. (Some would have killed teachers, self-defeatingly. Probably because we didn't have enough teachers to teach them maths correctly.)
Class sizes were 30 here when I was growing up too, but if you google USA class sizes all the sources seem to agree it's just below 25-ish now.
However before anyone gets excited that may have something to do with how much extra bullshit they have to deal with such as No Child Left Behind and similar stuff they need to do to ensure they keep federal funding. I'm sure the amount of stupid testing they do now makes up for them getting sightly smaller class sizes, to actually end up worse for everyone.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/class-size-what-research-says-and-what-it-means-for-state-policy/
This article seems to sum up the research on the topic pretty well. It was found in some studies that smaller class sizes improved academic achievement
Quote
In this study, students and teachers were randomly assigned to a small class, with an average of 15 students, or a regular class, with an average of 22 students. This large reduction in class size (students, or 32 percent) was found to increase student achievement by an amount equivalent to about 3 additional months of schooling four years later.
However:
Quote
When school finances are limited, the cost-benefit test any educational policy must pass is not “Does this policy have any positive effect?” but rather “Is this policy the most productive use of these educational dollars?” Assuming even the largest class-size effects, such as the STAR results, class-size mandates must still be considered in the context of alternative uses of tax dollars for education. There is no research from the U.S. that directly compares CSR to specific alternative investments, but one careful analysis of several educational interventions found CSR to be the least cost effective of those studied.
So it's not that cut and dried. An option doesn't just have to be a good option, it needs to be the best option at the current point. States are looking to backtrack on small class laws/regulations because this is restricting their use of resources for other programs that have shown even more promise per dollar spent. They also point out that some people benefit from small classes a lot more than others. So why not have variable sized classes instead of maximum class size laws enacted uniformly? They'd keep almost all the benefits while saving a lot of money that could be invested into those other promising interventions I mentioned.
Post by: Frumple on August 06, 2020, 07:11:39 pm
And yet in spite of it Florida still exists, which is the real disaster. >:(Like, just to reiterate, but Michael was the highest category hurricane to hit the florida panhandle since we've been tracking hurricane strength. It was a literally historic storm for this region, fema et al didn't manage nearly enough, and the high level decision making did, in fact, get involved and was handled pretty shit.
Right well I underestimated Harvey a bit and I'll retract "major hurricane" but let me reemphasize: I said crisis, and in the grand scheme of things hurricanes are not really a crisis in terms of what an administration actually does unless it's a very unusual incident.
I didn't have power outside a generator for a month straight. My area is still fixing shit from the damage. More than one of the hurricanes we've had over the course of this administration have, in fact, been bloody unusual.
This administration has been so goddamn clownshoes its consistently extremely shit response to disasters maybe doesn't register well in the grand scheme of things, I guess, and maybe the unceasing cavalcade of horseshit or the unending time malaise of 2020 has made it harder to recall the earlier fuckups, but while covid is undoubtedly the widest scale non-self-inflicted crisis trump and co have dropped the ball on it damn sure ain't the only or the first. S'all I'm sayin'.
Post by: Dostoevsky on August 06, 2020, 07:30:48 pm
(Yeah I'm being cheeky, but more towards the administration than anybody here. There's some bad evidence out there about the administration not giving two sheets about PR's recovery.)
Anyways, this is getting pretty Ameripol right now isn't it?
Post by: Reelya on August 07, 2020, 08:16:22 pm
And I can see where they're coming from! They give you a ticket/fine if you don't meet the dress code, how much more like the Gestapo could you get?
Seriously coddled fucks if they think there's any resemblance between what's happening and Nazi Germany.
Post by: Starver on August 07, 2020, 08:50:10 pm
But forcing masks onto people is hardly Evil Overlord material. It's exactly the opposite of Rule One (http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html). (Even if Rule 99 is a little dated, now, most of them still apply.)
Post by: MrRoboto75 on August 07, 2020, 09:14:27 pm
Well, the Nazis did give everyone a uniform (coalminers is the one I most remember - not just workclothes for convenience, but parade-dress). Psychologically, that's got to give you a boost (so long as it's not a Huttese slave-costume, unless that is your idea of inspiring workwear).
But forcing masks onto people is hardly Evil Overlord material. It's exactly the opposite of Rule One (http://www.eviloverlord.com/lists/overlord.html). (Even if Rule 99 is a little dated, now, most of them still apply.)
I'm sure they mean the 'Juden' stars the Jewish had to wear.
Post by: Eschar on August 07, 2020, 10:38:51 pm
Conceited shitgoblins.
Post by: wierd on August 07, 2020, 10:54:32 pm
Suspected vector was the physical therapist. (who, because of how the state decided physical therapists need to work a shitload extra in order to pay their bills, has been working several facilities.)
We have established an isolation wing.
Wanderers still trying to wander extra hard tonight too.
Fun times.
WEAR YOUR MOTHER FUCKING MASKS PEOPLE.
Post by: hector13 on August 08, 2020, 06:55:20 am
No idea how you’re going to do that... presumably a great deal of PPE is used and discarded in the isolation wing?
Post by: martinuzz on August 08, 2020, 07:09:42 am
Some idiots in Australia are likening the police to the Gestapo for enforcing mask-wearing in Melbourne.Same in the Netherlands, the leader of 'Viruswaanzin' ('Virusmadness') compared obligatory facemasks (whcih we don't have) to the yellow stars jews were forced to wear in WWII. Clearly they have no clue about the holocaust. Idiot fucktards.
And I can see where they're coming from! They give you a ticket/fine if you don't meet the dress code, how much more like the Gestapo could you get?
Seriously coddled fucks if they think there's any resemblance between what's happening and Nazi Germany.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 08, 2020, 07:43:23 am
I can't tell how I feel about this. I don't think it's actually fitting in my head. I can talk about it analytically, sorta, but it doesn't *feel* like anything yet.
So I can't begin to imagine the same thing happening in other facilities across the country, even the world. The closest I'm getting is dark thoughts towards those who downplayed and accelerated this. I don't know what the healthier response would be. Protest I guess. Was already in a hopeless mood lately, ugh.
Post by: hector13 on August 08, 2020, 08:16:06 am
It’s too real now.
All of you, get into your bubbles immediately and don’t come out for the foreseeable.
Post by: Frumple on August 08, 2020, 09:33:44 am
So far as what do goes, you just... do what you can, whatever that may be. Hope it doesn't kill family or friends, but expect it. Maybe there's something you can do to help with potential funerary concerns or making sure wills are in order. If there's something you can send to them they might like -- music, letters, whatever -- then maybe consider it. If you have the energy or resources or whatever to protest or harangue the fuckers in charge that are inevitably dropping the ball, it probably can't hurt much (well, protest might with the police riots going on but eh).The
Hope your gma makes it through, rol :(
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 08, 2020, 09:46:12 am
If you're curious in this one a particularily illiterate person misinterpretated a goverment FAQ on an epidemiological survey, and conclusively demonstrated he did not know or understand what an epidemiological aurvey or a serology test were. For that matter he also demonstrated he was close to functional illiteracy
Post by: wierd on August 08, 2020, 10:01:51 am
This could be everything from "But the NUCLEAR FAMILY!!!! 1 MOM, 1 DAD, AND KIDS! NOTHING ELSE IS A FAMILY OMG WARRGBLR!!" to "Sex is dirty, no child under the age of 22 should be doing it, and then ONLY after getting properly married!" to "Black people are subhumans that should be cleaning houses, not rioting!" and all manner of places in-between, and beyond.
Covid-19 has turned basically EVERY SOCIAL CONVENTION on its mother fucking head, by disrupting every aspect of modern living. Naturally, these people ^^ will be the most in denial, upset, refusal-to-comply, et-al about it.
That isn't to say that there aren't a shitload of Karens and their male counterparts out there from the liberal side of society-- just look at California. "I have to wear a mask!? BUT MY MAKEUP!! I WANT TO TALK TO THE MANAGER!" and all that bullshit, and everything even close to that kind of "Me me me! I'm a PRINCESS!" mindset.
No. This virus does not give a flying fuck about anything other than finding a viable host body to incubate and replicate inside of. NOTHING ELSE. Think with that modality. Fuck the makeup. Fuck your damn church service. Fuck your goddamn asymmetric bob hairstyle, and fuck no-- you can't talk to the motherfucking manager. Ain't shit he can do about the crow plague, that shit is on all the people who refuse to practice mask discipline, refuse to stop making booty calls, refuse to stop going to parties, refuse to stop going to beaches, and refuse to take this GLOBAL EMERGENCY FUCKING SERIOUSLY.
And it's only going to get worse, because in another few months, it will be winter-- and soooooooooooooooooooo many school systems the world over are in mother fucking denial about jamming hundreds of kids into close quarters from a geographically wide area, and how fucking lightning fast that is going to spread this shit.
I knew this shit would eventually make it into my facility-- It was an inevitability. My catching it as a result of being a primary care giver is also a statistical inevitability. However, I will do the correct and proper thing, and NOT TRAVEL, NOT GO TO PARTIES, NOT GO TO THE STORE, AND STAY THE FUCK HOME WHEN I AM NOT AT WORK.
Everyone else needs to do the exact same thing. It is not negotiable.
Post by: McTraveller on August 08, 2020, 12:08:33 pm
I have had 4 people in my immediate family contract and recover from COVID-19, although they live in a different state so I don't see them often. Among them - both of my parents, who are both in their mid 60s, which is not a low risk group. But they are OK. We were calling them about every day for the main two weeks they were really ill though. It's definitely stressful. I'm also worried about my wife's parents who are in their mid 70s and basically are just living their lives as per usual. That will be more dramatic, although my father in law is basically on constant risk anyway because he's half-paralyzed due to a stroke 15 years ago and is constantly falling and whacking his head on things.
My personal take is that we are all essentially going to get the disease sooner or later. We and everyone we know is also going to die at some point. We have to just make the most of our time until those times - show love, don't take relationships for granted, etc. etc. Take precautions yes, but don't live in fear. If that makes sense.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on August 08, 2020, 12:18:08 pm
And it's only going to get worse, because in another few months, it will be winter-- and soooooooooooooooooooo many school systems the world over are in mother fucking denial about jamming hundreds of kids into close quarters from a geographically wide area, and how fucking lightning fast that is going to spread this shit.
Schools need to open right now, but also we must delay the election due to bubonic plague.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 08, 2020, 01:02:45 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 08, 2020, 11:00:21 pm
Of course, this would probably take 100x more funding than schools currently get, and it doesn't solve all the problems, but having the nation lag further behind in education, the asset that democracies need to function, might honestly be worse.
For younger children though... I'm stumped, as a large benefit for schooling young children is to socialize them and develop their emotions through relations with their peers, things that absolutely cannot happen through online learning. This is a very time sensitive portion of young children's lives, so delaying their social education by six months or a year hurts a lot, as they're not waiting to grow up, and they might become a very socially awkward, misfit generation.
Post by: Reelya on August 08, 2020, 11:12:32 pm
Some boarding schools have local students too, so you can look those up and see what the difference in tuition is.
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 08, 2020, 11:32:08 pm
Though now that I've verbalized it like that, that sounds like a fairly cruel existence to force young teens to endure, but if it were designed correctly, it would be more of a gilded cage for learning.
Post by: Reelya on August 08, 2020, 11:36:35 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 08, 2020, 11:49:16 pm
Post by: Starver on August 09, 2020, 03:26:38 am
eidt: ood spilling mistokes
Post by: Reelya on August 09, 2020, 03:29:58 am
Post by: scriver on August 09, 2020, 03:41:20 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 09, 2020, 06:06:44 pm
Isn't this the plot of "If..."
"If..." the 1968 movie (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If....)?
Post by: Reelya on August 09, 2020, 09:47:22 pm
Meanwhile, an American school that suspended a student for posting a picture of crowded hallways full of maskless students has now closed down because of Covid infections.
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/08/hs-that-suspended-teen-who-tweeted-photo-of-hallway-has-9-covid-19-cases/
Post by: scriver on August 10, 2020, 12:05:00 am
Isn't this the plot of "If..."
"If..." the 1968 movie (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If....)?
It's not weird! It's a classic!
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 10, 2020, 12:38:38 am
Isn't this the plot of "If..."
"If..." the 1968 movie (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If....)?
It's not weird! It's a classic!
I'd honestly never heard of it. I was asking cause that seemed like a very old reference to be making, but it was the most probable one from what I could tell from googling it.
Post by: scriver on August 10, 2020, 12:51:46 am
Post by: wierd on August 10, 2020, 03:21:52 am
I mean, NOBODY could have predicted that jamming a bunch of kids together into a confined space, sourced from a geographically diverse area, could result in such a huge upswing in cases! Mind blowing!
/sarcasm (withering, searing hot, and potentially radioactive levels of sarcasm)
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
Seriously people, a desire for things to be normal is natural and understandable. However, reality does not give a fuck about what you or I want. Public health is an area of policy that must be rooted in hard reality, and not political socio-engineering. As such, "how I feel about it" is not that important. "Does it save lives?" is what is important. How you will deal with having your kidlings at home with you all the time is not a life and death situation. Sending kids off to school during a pandemic *IS*.
For the love of all that is good, please pressure your elected officials to do what is mandated by science and reality, and not what some loud Karens want. Keep the kids home. Stay at home. Don't go to public gatherings.
Post by: Greiger on August 10, 2020, 03:42:54 am
All it did is put me on Rick Scott and Desantis' newsletters, which I have tried to unsubscribe from twice and still keep receiving, letters from conservative 'charities', emails and letters claiming to be computer repair companies saying they were contracted by microsoft to contact me about my computer issues, and emails telling me my non existent myspace and spotify accounts were hacked.
I did not receive any actual correspondence back, nor did either of them appear to even consider the stance of a person they are supposed to be representing. Your representatives don't give a flying fuck what you think unless you make the envelope out of 100 dollar bills.
Post by: martinuzz on August 10, 2020, 05:53:25 am
How you will deal with having your kidlings at home with you all the time is not a life and death situation. Sending kids off to school during a pandemic *IS*.But what if your boss demands you go to work and your kids are too young to be left home alone (because they could die from trying to climb stuff or open the door for a pedophile), and the alternative is losing your job, becoming homeless and your now homeless kids get run over by a bus while you are being raped in an alley by a crack dealer?
Post by: dragdeler on August 10, 2020, 06:27:50 am
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2020, 06:36:18 am
(Including weekends, 'cos it sounds like that kind of boss.)
Post by: martinuzz on August 10, 2020, 06:50:03 am
Over here the government paid business that had to tell their workers to stay home during the lockdown enough to pay them 90% of their normal wage.
Bringing children to work is just impossible in a lot of workplaces. And you'd get the same thing as in schools if more parents bring their kids, then they're just not grouped at school, they're grouped at their parents' workplaces.
Post by: dragdeler on August 10, 2020, 07:07:08 am
Post by: Frumple on August 10, 2020, 07:08:14 am
And you'd get the same thing as in schools if more parents bring their kids, then they're just not grouped at school, they're grouped at their parents' workplaces.I mean, that would still sorta' be an improvement! At least you'd be removing an extra infection vector by not having the household in question potentially spread the plague to both workplace and school. That's probably going to be better than the infection spreading to both.
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2020, 07:26:03 am
Post by: Eschar on August 10, 2020, 08:32:13 am
I resisted the urge to demonstrate the 'benefits' of children being there if you're a [...] undercover cop...
"Are you a cop?"
"No."
"Yes he is!"
Post by: scriver on August 10, 2020, 09:22:00 am
Post by: hector13 on August 10, 2020, 09:25:33 am
They must have been discussing gay marriage at the time.
It’ll be different in the playground with these arguments over who has the hardest dad:
“My dad could beat up your dad.”
“Oh yeah? Well my dad’ll shag your dad... and your dad’ll like it.”
Post by: nenjin on August 10, 2020, 09:58:49 am
People reported them to the city. Cops came down, county health department told them they had to shut down.
They decided they were just going to ignore that. Continued to stay open, didn't make anyone wear masks.
Cops come down AGAIN, order them to close, then posted State Patrol officers out front to make sure they obeyed it.
Now there's "protestors" out front of them building.
Post by: feelotraveller on August 10, 2020, 07:06:13 pm
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2020, 08:17:41 pm
Does that even sound sane?
Post by: Reelya on August 10, 2020, 08:39:42 pm
The government here is copping a lot of flak simultaneously about not being able to control cases while also copping flak over being overly-draconian in their mandates. I give them the benefit of the doubt here, basically they can't win because many people are short-sighted selfish assholes or delusional, and you have to double-down with restrictions on everyone else to make up for that.
So you get a lot of people who aren't where they say they are and are flouting the rules. So i don't know: if you don't door knock you actually don't have any information about how many people are actually staying home or not, but gathering that information needs you to have actual humans to check, since a large proportion of people are clearly already lying that they're adhering to the rules.
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2020, 09:49:43 pm
When I went to the barber and left my name and mobile, if anybody had made that listed information necessary to use then they could probably use one of the CTs to try (and likely succeed, even if I'd be wary of an unknown number) to contact me, tell me the 'worst', get me to bunker down except for a trip to a local testing site...
Now they have fewer people doing that (never mind that they were terrible at setting it up, such that at first it seemed half the CTs had no work to do, by now they ought to have or the system is even more broke), less people in a position to phone me, nobody knows my address until they phone me (or tap into my mobile company's DB, but this is a long-held PAYG that I probably bought - if with any address at all - when I was elsewhere, so good luck with that), and even if they were completely able to send someone out to wherever I happened to be, the latency between mine and prior/later doors-knocked is much higher due to travel (unless my street is due to be hit with a mass-alert on the same day,vwhich is unlikely).
So I still question the sanity of a system that seems still not to be working at full necessary potential now being downsized and throttled.
Later on, listening to a repeat of the item, it seemed they were looking for "local knowledge". But the importance of that doesn't seem to match the needs of a nationwide "whackamole", and sounds like they're just telling local authorities to do things now, to get the whole process off the books of the Treasury and plausibly abdicate responsibility for any failures that then occur.
(Plus, while I'm here: it is a "moral responsibility" to get children back into schools? That absolutism implies that al those who are cautious about doing so are immoral. I have no problem looking toward trying to make return to school a plausible situation, but all the language has been "it will be done, and we will brook no arguments about it". Which is decisiveness too far.)
Post by: Reelya on August 10, 2020, 09:53:20 pm
Though the people you Contact Trace (onto) aren't people yet told to quarantine themselves, so that's not doing anything.
It does something, you get accurate stats on the proportion of people actually staying home, which then gives you better modelling.
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2020, 10:35:47 pm
If you want to know how many ordinary people are staying home, some other taskforce should send door-knockers to survey random[1] streets in random neighbourhoods of random districts, all across the country. This aint that.
[1] In a representative way.
Post by: wierd on August 10, 2020, 11:00:26 pm
Self-reporting is well known to be woefully inaccurate in basically any and all areas it could be used.
Ideally, you would want to know about people like me (since now I have crow plague at work, and have occupational exposure basically daily) as well. Not positive, but known exposure.
Regardless, I am going to have to start relying on Amazon food delivery.
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2020, 11:44:52 pm
The 'legwork' is vastly of hunting down as many undiagnosed contacts as you can, for each diagnosed case. This ideally includes finding out where the initial contact got their case from, which might be a symptom-free individual who has never thought to take a test or isolate, so has not stayed at home at all, might or might not be home now, might or might not need to stay home now, having already done all the damage they were silently doing and now is beyond that stage, with the time taken to hop to the pre-diagnosed case who maybe (by now, after the wait for the results and then the wait to be Trace-contacted) is themself much less of a personal danger.
Post by: hector13 on August 11, 2020, 12:05:27 am
They changed the results for schools in lower prosperity areas more than higher property schools. They also, for some inexplicable reason, didn’t use the results of prelims* in the vast majority of cases, which kinda makes the prelims seem a bit pointless.
They seemed to have ignored teachers’ judgement of what grade their students would get too, which is sensible on the one hand (teachers get kudos for high achieving students, presumably) but not so sensible on the other (teachers see their students every day, and probably have a good grasp of what they can achieve).
The rest of the UK are getting their results on Thursday this week, so I’m intrigued to see how this fiasco affects that, and how those results affect the politics of the situation in Scotland.
*in Scotland, at least for Highers, you sit a prelim exam a few months before the real one, and if you get a lower grade in the real one than in the prelim or miss the exam or whatever, you can appeal to get the grade for the prelim instead. Coincidentally, I had to do this for one exam ‘cause my nose decided it was more important to incessantly leak blood instead of sit an exam.
Post by: scriver on August 11, 2020, 12:21:31 am
Post by: hector13 on August 11, 2020, 01:04:48 am
Post by: Reelya on August 11, 2020, 02:00:18 am
Are we doing sleep deprivation and pulling fingernails out now to coerce confessions, or rounding people up for banned speech and sending them to hard-labor camps with a 97% death rate? It really does smack of a situation where you tell your teenager "you have to be home by 9pm, now" and they answer "what, are we in Nazi Germany, now?"
Post by: McTraveller on August 11, 2020, 07:02:06 am
(Plus, while I'm here: it is a "moral responsibility" to get children back into schools? That absolutism implies that al those who are cautious about doing so are immoral. I have no problem looking toward trying to make return to school a plausible situation, but all the language has been "it will be done, and we will brook no arguments about it". Which is decisiveness too far.)
This is a tough one (and please no "no it's not, it's a simple choice!" Because it really isn't...). I think we do have a moral obligation to educate our children, including socialization for the youngest. We also have an obligation to help maintain public health. These two obligations are inherently at odds when maintaining public health requires lack of socialization. Note that this is often overlooked - the push for virtual/remote learning doesn't address the socialization aspects; education is more than just academic content. And that's not even getting into increased domestic stress, parent work issues, etc. Yeah you can pay people to be at home, but that's not a replacement for "normal" effective education.
So in general the trend is prioritization of social distance now, educate later; this may work out in the long run or it may not; it's a known fact that early childhood education years are critical, and if you miss that window it is extremely difficult to make up for it later. Some things cannot just be put off until later (facetiously: "you think you delay planting those crops?").
When it comes to societal issues it is, sadly, a game of statistics. You can have a smaller overall population that remains well socialized and educated. Or you have a larger population that is more insular and even more stressed regarding socialization than we are already having due to social media, etc.
Post by: Starver on August 11, 2020, 09:39:47 am
(I bet I know one President who is probably not happy that he has been prevented from at least claiming a joint win/crossing the finish line.)
I am a little surprised that, as good as the oneupmanship might be, such a cavalier move was made. And I wonder how much stolen IP got compressed into their product (e.g. using proof/disproof from those various researchers shown to be hacked in other countries, to concentrate their own efforts).
Let's hope it doesn't turn out to be a backwards step.
Post by: TamerVirus on August 11, 2020, 09:44:58 am
"Lasting immunity"
We'll see...
Post by: McTraveller on August 11, 2020, 10:10:42 am
Also, I don't understand the adversarial nature of this whole thing, why "my country is better than yours." Insert rhetorical "why can't we all just be a single human race?" comment here.
Post by: Starver on August 11, 2020, 10:18:39 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 11, 2020, 10:33:39 am
Soo pretty much a propaganda stunt. Because let me tell you something: the same is going to happen in most western nations, with whichever vaccine is favored in your area. Probably Moderna
Post by: nenjin on August 11, 2020, 10:34:12 am
Post by: TamerVirus on August 11, 2020, 10:55:34 am
I would not be at all surprised if the rush to create one comes with a whole host of side effects. Thanks but no thanks, I'll wait for millions of guinea pigs to serve as actual clinical trials before I take anything.Interesting to note that in the Swine Flu outbreak in '09 a hastily prepared vaccine went to market called Pandemrix.
Ended up causing narcolepsy in a bunch of people
Post by: Dostoevsky on August 11, 2020, 10:59:24 am
As to the adversarial nature of it, I think there are a few factors:
1) Vaccine production will take a while to ramp up, and whoever is 'first' will likely choose to help their own population first
2) Vaccine production is probably going to be worth a lot of money; to the extent the developer/producer is associated with a country, that country gets profit from it. (This varies from a U.S. 'get tax revenue' to a more RU/CH 'it's basically a gov't company')
3) The usual national pride thing, like the original space race
4) Going back to #1, whoever helps their population first will recover economically first, and thus could have an advantage in the post-pandemic world order (perhaps)
I'm probably missing some others.
I would not be at all surprised if the rush to create one comes with a whole host of side effects. Thanks but no thanks, I'll wait for millions of guinea pigs to serve as actual clinical trials before I take anything.Interesting to note that in the Swine Flu outbreak in '09 a hastily prepared vaccine went to market called Pandemrix.
Ended up causing narcolepsy in a bunch of people
And yeah, skipping the side effect portion is running pretty massive risks.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 11, 2020, 11:19:19 am
A very rare side effect, though. I think there are what, a hundred cases of that happening worldwide?I would not be at all surprised if the rush to create one comes with a whole host of side effects. Thanks but no thanks, I'll wait for millions of guinea pigs to serve as actual clinical trials before I take anything.Interesting to note that in the Swine Flu outbreak in '09 a hastily prepared vaccine went to market called Pandemrix.
Ended up causing narcolepsy in a bunch of people
Mind you, I'd be happier waiting until they do the Phase IIIs.
And yet... if I am given the choice in fall (and if I start my new job I suspect there's a strong possibility they will), I'll probably go for it nonetheless :/
As an aside: I suspect that will be the case because rumors of an "early access" for healthcare workers began as early as april, they were already talking of authing some of the late stage vaccines for high risk professions.... and in the last two weeks medical press has been hammering over and over how moderna's vaccine induced antibodies have activity against covid (in vitro, of course).
So my suspicion is that this agenda is churning on, and that last media offensive was in order to drum up support.
I font think it's nefarious mind you. The rate of infections among HCW is really bad, and I think goverments are worried about shortages
Post by: scriver on August 11, 2020, 11:32:35 am
A very rare side effect, though. I think there are what, a hundred cases of that happening worldwide?I would not be at all surprised if the rush to create one comes with a whole host of side effects. Thanks but no thanks, I'll wait for millions of guinea pigs to serve as actual clinical trials before I take anything.Interesting to note that in the Swine Flu outbreak in '09 a hastily prepared vaccine went to market called Pandemrix.
Ended up causing narcolepsy in a bunch of people
Mind you, I'd be happier waiting until they do the Phase IIIs.
And yet... if I am given the choice in fall (and if I start my new job I suspect there's a strong possibility they will), I'll probably go for it nonetheless :/
I believe it is tied to a Nordic gene. Most of the cases are in Sweden and Finland.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 11, 2020, 12:48:00 pm
I'm not going anywhere near a vaccine for Corona, not for at least another year. I have zero confidence in vaccine development under this kind of financial and political duress. Everyone wants to be "first to market" with theirs, and I would not be at all surprised if the rush to create one comes with a whole host of side effects. Thanks but no thanks, I'll wait for millions of guinea pigs to serve as actual clinical trials before I take anything.My mom said they're paying like $700 for volunteer guinea pigs here in the states. Which somehow surprised me. Somehow, I thought that paying civilians to risk their lives wouldn't be a thing under capitalism. I thought it would be a truly volunteer thing. But no, why rely on civic duty when you can literally force the poor to take the risk?
Post by: Reelya on August 11, 2020, 03:09:12 pm
Post by: nenjin on August 11, 2020, 03:14:44 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 11, 2020, 05:55:40 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 11, 2020, 06:01:04 pm
Post by: nenjin on August 11, 2020, 10:43:26 pm
Post by: delphonso on August 11, 2020, 10:55:24 pm
Post by: nenjin on August 11, 2020, 11:45:44 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 12, 2020, 07:52:58 am
Post by: wierd on August 12, 2020, 11:01:26 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/08/12/masks-florida-ban-billy-woods/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/12/us/sheriff-no-mask-ocala-trnd/index.html
Also, remember! Science is only good when it respects the government's wishes (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/28/climate/trump-administration-war-on-science.html)-- When it produces Evil, Contradictory Reports (https://services.aap.org/en/news-room/news-releases/aap/2020/american-academy-of-pediatrics-tracks-childrens-covid-19-cases-by-state-reflecting-increasing-cases/) that suggest that cases of children contracting covid have increased 90%, it just disrupts the narrative (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/511408-trump-says-children-unlikely-to-catch-coronavirus-unconcerned-about-reports) that it is SAFE TO OPEN (https://www.businessinsider.com/devos-the-rule-for-schools-to-open-in-the-fall-2020-7), and that's bad, M'kay! /s
America's NUMBER ONE!!! /s
[Serious]
Please, if your country is doing things sensibly, please tell them you approve of it, and want more of that. Stay away from the dumbfuckery coolaid.
Post by: ZBridges on August 12, 2020, 11:18:55 pm
Post by: wierd on August 12, 2020, 11:23:58 pm
But this is the COVID thread, not the Ameripol thread. Just, my country seems to WANT to self destruct over this shit, rather than do the right things to avoid catastrophe. (THANKS blobfish McConnell!)
Post by: hector13 on August 13, 2020, 11:44:49 pm
In England’s “robust” system, 40% of results were downgraded (https://www.bbc.com/news/education-53759832) (though 27% achieved the 2 highest grades, a record) though the British education secretary enacted a triple lock system (https://www.bbc.com/news/education-53746140?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cwlw3xz01e5t/gavin-williamson&link_location=live-reporting-story) two days prior to the release of results, which basically means a student will receive the higher grade of their estimated grade, their mock exam grade, or an exam resit in autumn grade.
The no confidence vote on the Scottish education secretary failed because the Greens decided that going to teacher estimates was enough, but the vote went ahead anyway because they need the spectacle apparently. Currently no news on Scottish views on what’s happened elsewhere in the UK, but since 25% of results being downgraded by moderators is a catastrophe, one would hope they feel the same about 40% of results being downgraded by moderators in Engerland.
Post by: Dostoevsky on August 14, 2020, 10:01:58 am
- Roughly 40-45% asymptomatic rate among infections, but in some of these scenarios varies widely. I suspect this is higher in practice, given the ratios of people not getting tested in the first place, but some of their data here is taken from environments where everybody was tested.
- The Diamond Princess cruise ship population showed significant numbers of asymptomatic individuals who nonetheless actually had some level of lung damage.
- The data from US inmates has a suspiciously high (96%) asymptomatic rate. It's possible, but I imagine it's more likely that the wardens aren't too keen on providing aid.
- Asymptomatic rates on military vessels were higher but not drastically so, despite presumably having younger & healthier populations.
Post by: nenjin on August 14, 2020, 12:28:00 pm
Post by: scriver on August 14, 2020, 12:30:39 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 14, 2020, 01:03:59 pm
He replied that those guys were all exaggerating, because in their hospital they "only had three beds with covid, out of a hundred".
And I was...🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ at how moronic and pretentious that was.
To clarify:
His hospital, by his own words, has a hundred beds. It probably doesnt have ICU or even a particularily large reanimation room.
OF FUCKING COURSE THEY WONT SEND SEVERE COVID TO HIM
Meanwhile the 12 de octubre, which he was disparaging, is a behemoth with ~1300-1600 beds in normal circumstances, depending on how stingy the management are being with open wards.
It takes adamantium testicles to imply his ultrarregional hospital is more representative than 12 de Octubre
Post by: dragdeler on August 14, 2020, 01:30:17 pm
Post by: McTraveller on August 14, 2020, 02:47:43 pm
This means the headline number is not new people who have gotten sick today; it is just a number of how many positive test results came in today - regardless of when the test was administered. It means this number lags actual infection rate by several days.
This made yesterday look terrible in the headline number - it was 1121 higher than the day before. But now, even after just 1 day, Aug 13 is now showing as only 133 higher than Aug 12, not 1121. Even though the total confirmed case count for Aug 13 is reported higher than its headline number yesterday.
NOTE: this is not an observation about the headline counts - it's just an observation about how you can't use the headline number to look at trends. You have to look at the actual data behind those headline numbers...
Post by: Reelya on August 14, 2020, 11:32:23 pm
Yeah except it's sort of evidence against it being a thing.
First, if there was statistical evidence we'd be hearing that and not specific anecdotes. Just having exceptionally weak evidence being spread is itself evidence that there's no better evidence in existence, because that's what went viral, and it wouldn't have if they had anything better.
Second, every nurse and doctor in the country would have to be in on the ruse, since they way they prove they didn't have Covid is in fact the Covid tests, so they'd have to be labeling people as Covid-positive and faking the test results but somehow forgot to fake the test results for these specific people. The roughly 150,000 medical workers in the Philippines would have to be in on the ruse, along with millions more worldwide.
Thirdly, the whole story boils down to the fact that two nurses ticked the wrong boxes on a couple of forms. Medical fuck-ups are pretty common, people make mistakes. It would be some sort of miracle if every form ever got filled in perfectly, but this is what this exact conspiracy theory is based on: an anecdote about a couple of forms that go filled out incorrectly by overworked nurses, and this is left hanging as if it provides proof of a global conspiracy. If there weren't occasional fuck-ups with paperwork then that would be weird, you actually have to show it's somehow correlated with Covid-specific stuff. Hospitals do this stuff all the time.
Post by: Eschar on August 14, 2020, 11:42:00 pm
Post by: scriver on August 15, 2020, 05:26:46 am
I don't think it matters much as far as misdiagnosises goes. I'm not sure if they've found any functional medicine yet so as far as I know if go in with a bad cold and get diagnosed with the crow plague the treatment ought to be the same anyway, go home, rest, drink water, and let the body do what it can. It's not like they just chuck you into intensive care or some other dangerous treatment as soon as you get diagnosed.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 15, 2020, 06:30:48 am
Always remember Comrade Dylatov (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mg5HOnq7zD0)
Post by: Iduno on August 15, 2020, 10:37:10 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 15, 2020, 10:56:22 am
It's wild seeing how the US is faring compared to the civilized world. I'm seeing businesses who could have handled ~3 months of a shutdown needing to close permanently because things are still getting worse instead of better. Hopefully the people who were shouting about reopening quickly to preserve the economy will be remembered for their short-sightedness ruining the economy instead. Jobs won't be coming back here, and the only businesses I've seen prosper are in automation or prison slave labor.
QTF. Its annoying how people dont realize the best way to save the economy is to stop this mess. And that we wont have a normal economy while the pandemic rages
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 15, 2020, 02:00:25 pm
Instead, some parts of the country are doing fine while others are... less.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 15, 2020, 02:22:59 pm
No. It doesnt vary by region. The virus is there and as soon as you reopen it starts to spread. And the cost offsets any transient benefit
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 15, 2020, 02:27:42 pm
No. It doesnt vary by region. The virus is there and as soon as you reopen it starts to spread. And the cost offsets any transient benefitI can promise you it does. The US is very big and, statistically, there are parts of it with no ongoing cases. Not "no known cases", but no cases. The virus is not slathered evenly across the country like peanut butter; it follows the existing social networks. Some places really are that isolated.
Interestingly, the evidence is that the 1918 flu epidemic mostly reached those places through the mail system, which, at the time, involved a lot more face-to-face contact, apparently.
Post by: Starver on August 15, 2020, 02:33:31 pm
Interestingly, the evidence is that the 1918 flu epidemic mostly reached those places through the mail system, which, at the time, involved a lot more face-to-face contact, apparently.Sooo... Defunding the USPS is just a masterstoke effort in slowing viral spread then...
/AmeriPol
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 15, 2020, 02:35:16 pm
(Back when it first started I DID consider that shutting down the USPS might be a good idea, but I don't think the numbers work out anymore: people just don't chat with their postmen.)Interestingly, the evidence is that the 1918 flu epidemic mostly reached those places through the mail system, which, at the time, involved a lot more face-to-face contact, apparently.Sooo... Defunding the USPS is just a masterstoke effort in slowing viral spread then...
/AmeriPol
Post by: Frumple on August 15, 2020, 03:25:48 pm
I mean, I just checked. It's theoretically possible -- near as I can parse from the data the CDC seems to be using, exactly 23 out of 3144 counties in the US have no confirmed cases to date reported. That gives you about a 0.7% chance of being correct if you can trust the competence of U.S. plague data collection.No. It doesnt vary by region. The virus is there and as soon as you reopen it starts to spread. And the cost offsets any transient benefitI can promise you it does. The US is very big and, statistically, there are parts of it with no ongoing cases. Not "no known cases", but no cases.
It also means chaircritter is roughly 99.3% more correct than incorrect, at a minimum. Personally, I'd be assuming the sub-one-percent of the country without confirmed cases just hasn't found their infected yet. Pretty good odds you'd be right :V
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 15, 2020, 04:06:08 pm
I mean, I just checked. It's theoretically possible -- near as I can parse from the data the CDC seems to be using, exactly 23 out of 3144 counties in the US have no confirmed cases to date reported. That gives you about a 0.7% chance of being correct if you can trust the competence of U.S. plague data collection.I'm talking about subcounty areas, to be clear. Counties are pretty big!
It also means chaircritter is roughly 99.3% more correct than incorrect, at a minimum. Personally, I'd be assuming the sub-one-percent of the country without confirmed cases just hasn't found their infected yet. Pretty good odds you'd be right :V
Post by: delphonso on August 15, 2020, 06:59:55 pm
Post by: Bumber on August 15, 2020, 07:07:13 pm
It's wild seeing how the US is faring compared to the civilized world. I'm seeing businesses who could have handled ~3 months of a shutdown needing to close permanently because things are still getting worse instead of better. Hopefully the people who were shouting about reopening quickly to preserve the economy will be remembered for their short-sightedness ruining the economy instead. Jobs won't be coming back here, and the only businesses I've seen prosper are in automation or prison slave labor.
QTF. Its annoying how people dont realize the best way to save the economy is to stop this mess. And that we wont have a normal economy while the pandemic rages
The best way to save the economy was to never have shut down in the first place. Mammon demands sacrifice!
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 15, 2020, 07:08:36 pm
I mean. Still.Still what?
Let me be clear about the implications here: this — reopening — is literally benefiting the least populated parts of the country at the extreme expense of cities. It is absolutely an intentional transfer of economic power from cities to thinly populated rural areas, and it's working. If you fail to appreciate this, you will not understand what happens afterward.
Post by: Reelya on August 15, 2020, 07:09:57 pm
For example the first no-case example I found was in Alaska, there are three counties listed with no cases. One is Yakutat, population 662.
Quote
The borough covers an area about six times the size of the U.S. state of Rhode Island, making it one of the largest counties (or county equivalents) in the United States.
Yes it's quite large. But there are almost no fucking people there, so the population is extremely sparse. That might explain why it has no recorded cases.
Post by: delphonso on August 15, 2020, 07:22:35 pm
I mean. Still.Still what?
Let me be clear about the implications here: this — reopening — is literally benefiting the least populated parts of the country at the extreme expense of cities. It is absolutely an intentional transfer of economic power from cities to thinly populated rural areas, and it's working. If you fail to appreciate this, you will not understand what happens afterward.
The other implications are that the US is once again prolonging the virus for the sake of...minor immediate economic growth. Stopping everything is the only way other countries have managed to get the virus under control.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 15, 2020, 07:26:17 pm
The other implications are that the US is once again prolonging the virus for the sake of...minor immediate economic growth. Stopping everything is the only way other countries have managed to get the virus under control.Well, yes, but that's almost missing the point, I feel, which is that the people where the virus isn't don't care. Sacrificing NYC or Atlanta is like sacrificing some African country as far as they're concerned. Maybe even better, since Africa can't vote against them.
Post by: Reelya on August 15, 2020, 07:30:21 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 15, 2020, 07:33:08 pm
Being in one of those thinly populated rural areas, I can absolutely guarantee you that ain't working. Beyond the slow downs related to people still friggin' dying out here, much of our economic activity is reliant on having someone to sell to, and there's sod all out here to sell to. Cities getting econo-fucked doesn't actually benefit these joints much or at all, it just screws rural folks alongside it.I mean. Still.Still what?
Let me be clear about the implications here: this — reopening — is literally benefiting the least populated parts of the country at the extreme expense of cities. It is absolutely an intentional transfer of economic power from cities to thinly populated rural areas, and it's working. If you fail to appreciate this, you will not understand what happens afterward.
Maybe there's some kind of marginal relative benefit to places like Extreme Bumfuck, Alaska, but there's not exactly going to be some kind of boom during or after the plague for these places. They're still going to be largely empty, generally thoroughly shitty places to be or work, and their economic situation will still reflect that at best. At worst they lose even more of whatever minimal economic activity they had due to it being reliant for clients et al from places hit harder by the plague, and due to being out of the way shitholes didn't exactly have the resources to weather the hit.
Seriously, if the "plan" is what you're suggesting, it's a tremendous self-own that ain't going to work out very well.
Post by: Bumber on August 15, 2020, 08:57:03 pm
Well, yes, but that's almost missing the point, I feel, which is that the people where the virus isn't don't care. Sacrificing NYC or Atlanta is like sacrificing some African country as far as they're concerned. Maybe even better, since Africa can't vote against them.
People where the virus is don't care, either, if the alternative is no partying. Risk assessment and all that.
Post by: Reelya on August 15, 2020, 09:10:57 pm
And of course no matter what illusiory short-term benefit to rural voters there is, that's not what Trump cares about. He'd feed half his own supporters into a woodchipper if it would get him elected again, that's how much he cares about who voted for him.
Apparently they did draft a detailed and comprehensive plan to test and isolate and coordinate the federal response. However, that plan was shelved and suppressed a short while after they got intel that stated that most of the deaths would be in Democrat held areas. They did this whole thing on purpose. But it's not that they give any more of a shit about Rural McBumfuck who voted for Trump. Trump and co despise those people even more than they dislike the inner-city people, since they are in fact inner-city elites.
After the election, if Trump wins, I wouldn't be surprise if he changes tack to 100% ransacking mode and basically exports as much value as he can into private pockets. The first term would have been setting up his cronies in charge of everything, hence why he gutted places like the State Department of long-serving civil servants. Remove the checks and balances. Then, the plan would be to get elected to the second term, and then you switch gears to grabbing as much cash as possible and put that into the hands of you and you allies. Covid was a major upset to this plan, hence why Trump's desperate to game the system just long enough to win the election.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 15, 2020, 09:26:35 pm
He'll probably also ransack the government, but slower than you describe.
Post by: Reelya on August 15, 2020, 09:30:39 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 15, 2020, 09:35:42 pm
Post by: wierd on August 15, 2020, 10:31:13 pm
While our orange dipshit has been singularly stupid about Corona, challenged only by Bolsanaro and Co for worse response ever, discussions about his dictatorial wet-dreams belong in Ameripol, not the Covid thread.
Post by: Starver on August 15, 2020, 11:00:58 pm
In the news was a Cross Channel Swimmer, who (because sue and her support crew would only be on French soil[2] for 10 minutes, they'd be able to have the post-swim party back in Blighty that evening without breaking the rules.
Also a set of people who hired a fishing boat to get them back to Albion at 4:50AM, so they were just Ok...
(Because staying for 11 minutes or arriving at 5:01AM isvastly more unsafe than what they did/planned for. Sounds to me the letter of the law means more to some than the spirit of the law. And I say this fully aware that my approach to posted speed limits could be seen as the same, by some.)
[1] Or whenever it was. I frankly don't personally care, as I didn't immediately book a holiday to Europe the moment it appeared I could, only to find out while I was over there that I might not have complete freedom of movement once I returned unless I allezed pretty rapidement to the nearest port.
[2] Or, rather, rocks. At a fairly inaccessible point of Cap Gris-Nez, where beachgoers would be unlikely to turn up anyway.
Post by: Jopax on August 16, 2020, 06:28:04 pm
On a more personal note, a friends cousin tested positive a few days ago (and he's been in contact with them recently), seeing as I meant to hang out with him this week that's kinda out the window now. More worrying is that he's not exactly great when it comes to respiratory illnesses (plus he's a smoker).
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 16, 2020, 07:05:18 pm
Post by: Jopax on August 17, 2020, 06:24:06 am
Post by: scriver on August 17, 2020, 08:39:55 am
Post by: hector13 on August 17, 2020, 12:49:04 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 17, 2020, 01:17:45 pm
Case count for our county has just about doubled in the last two weeks. In the face of that schools opened to in-person classes last week, with attending students already testing positive and getting sent home since then. In the face of that, well, of course, full public hours again in a week and a half.
Talking with the boss a bit to see if maybe there's something we can work out, but... right now I'm probably going to be putting in a letter of resignation sometime in the next few days. If there was fucking anyone reliable I could trust to handle some of the care my grandparents need I'd consider just moving out until the plague blows over, but there kinda' ain't, so... shit. Don't really need the money right now, but I've liked the work and co-workers well enough so far :-\
Just... fuck florida's response to the plague, seriously. Sacks of shit directing most of the response in this state are literally worse than useless.
Post by: Reelya on August 17, 2020, 01:23:30 pm
I hear there's a sudden drop in the number of tests in a number of states but nobody is quite clear (or being clear) about why that is. It's matched with a sharp climb in the test positivity rate. So they're testing far less people now but far more of those they test have the disease. I'm sure Trump would spin that as it making sense to only test the sick people because we don't want "the numbers" to rise unnecessarily, but that's not how it works.
Post by: wierd on August 17, 2020, 01:42:18 pm
Post by: Starver on August 17, 2020, 02:56:48 pm
Or more drunkenness because people know there are fewer hours to get the drinking done, so drink more in a shorter period.Not sure what regulations were supposed to be being 'followed' here... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53801230) Except for the facemask!
Post by: Doomblade187 on August 17, 2020, 03:16:57 pm
Post by: Iduno on August 17, 2020, 04:33:04 pm
That's the thing, it's a half-ass solution that accomplishes nothing besides pissing people off. It won't impact the spread whatsoever but will manage to hurt businesses in that sector. It's like zero bloody thought or competence went into the decision.
Yes, however will closing places where people congregate stop people from congregating? /s
Post by: Reelya on August 18, 2020, 07:43:29 am
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/live-coronavirus-nsw-sydney-covid19-updates/live-coverage/44555ed808dc295809920692395065ce
Quote
Australian researchers are testing a breakthrough treatment for COVID-19 derived from the humble pineapple.
Cancer specialist Professor David Morris, from St George Hospital in Sydney, and his team have repurposed a drug he had already developed to treat cancer patients.
The drug, BromAc – which is made with an enzyme found in pineapples -was found to dissolve the spike proteins that COVID-19 uses to infect human cells.
It has been repurposed into a nasal spray that researchers hope will stop the virus’ spread from the nose and throat to the lungs. A trial on patients at the Royal Melbourne Hospital could start next month.
The active ingredient sounds like bromelain, the same stuff in pineapple that stops jello from setting. If the solution to Covid turns out to be pineapple-scented nasal spray then this year is officially weird.
Post by: Mech#4 on August 18, 2020, 07:47:14 am
Well here's a thing for you
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/live-coronavirus-nsw-sydney-covid19-updates/live-coverage/44555ed808dc295809920692395065ceQuoteAustralian researchers are testing a breakthrough treatment for COVID-19 derived from the humble pineapple.
Cancer specialist Professor David Morris, from St George Hospital in Sydney, and his team have repurposed a drug he had already developed to treat cancer patients.
The drug, BromAc – which is made with an enzyme found in pineapples -was found to dissolve the spike proteins that COVID-19 uses to infect human cells.
It has been repurposed into a nasal spray that researchers hope will stop the virus’ spread from the nose and throat to the lungs. A trial on patients at the Royal Melbourne Hospital could start next month.
The active ingredient sounds like bromelain, the same stuff in pineapple that stops jello from setting. If the solution to Covid turns out to be pineapple-scented nasal spray then this year is officially weird.
Pineapple pizza was the cure all along.
Post by: scriver on August 18, 2020, 08:00:44 am
Post by: Reelya on August 18, 2020, 08:23:54 am
Post by: Starver on August 18, 2020, 10:10:49 am
Post by: hector13 on August 18, 2020, 01:32:30 pm
"And is there a way we can do something like that, by pushing a pineapple inside, almost a reaming? So it'd be interesting to check that."
“Of course I knew it would be pineapples that would be the cure, some very smart people were saying “it’s never going to work” but I told them “just you watch” and I was right.”
Post by: martinuzz on August 18, 2020, 07:38:05 pm
Research has been initiated to see if the mother's milk can protect elderly people and other high risk groups against the virus.
Initial findings show that the antibodies from the mother's milk bind to the mucous membranes, thus giving a high chance of killing the virus even before it enters the lungs.
Inb4 women that had corona are purposedely impregnated and herded into mothermilk farms en masse to save us all.
Post by: Reelya on August 18, 2020, 07:47:27 pm
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-vaccine-antivaxxer-fury-over-australian-government-deal/news-story/c1bdcc8035a5bc2f9452d2f4f4552183
Quote
Many were also concerned about their vaccine coming with a side of 5G microchips.
“Leave my body alone Bill Gates, I don’t want your 5G tracking inside me,” one wrote.
Another said, “Say no to vaccines and no to chips. They can’t force you.”
Quote
One person explained, “The Mark of the Beast is here. That’s why it’s free.”
Is is just Australia btw? Barring the USA are other nations seeing similar amount of whackos coming out with this stuff?
Post by: martinuzz on August 18, 2020, 07:50:41 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 18, 2020, 07:53:12 pm
Why is it Bill Gates that’s the apparent mastermind behind all this? Because he happens to be spending a great deal of money on philanthropy?
Post by: Reelya on August 18, 2020, 08:06:05 pm
Some American/Western religious and anti-vaxxers started spreading anti-vax conspiracies in those nations, indirectly leading to thousands if not hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths. They played on the general lack of education in Africa.
The "chipping" part comes from this: Along with the injection there's a small amount of UV-reactive dye on the vaccine application device, that sits under the skin, and the application device leaves a different pattern of dye depending on which vaccines they got. The dye sits under the skin for a few years. So the idea is that if you're doing a vaccine program in a part of Africa where everyone is illiterate villagers, you can put the UV scanner on their arm and check for any dye blobs, so you can tell which vaccines were already given and how long ago they were. It's for situations where there is no sort of central record keeping, and is intended to do away with the need to create one, which is the opposite of what the conspiracy theorists will tell you. it's similar to some hysteria about a website using cookies to maintain user persistence between pages. People freak out "I'm being tracked by cookies". But the point is that cookies are decentralized: they only exist on your PC, and using them can actually do away with the need for any central database. If your site doesn't even have a database but it uses cookies, then it's not "tracking" you.
Bill Gates also said something about using digital certificates for record keeping, and this got conflated with the dye trials as "injecting people with digital certificates" which is already crazy, and that then evolved to "injecting people with microchips" and later the 5G stuff was tacked on, too.
Post by: feelotraveller on August 18, 2020, 09:19:28 pm
"The American people can work out that we have (the same number of COVID-19 cases) for a whole day that they have every 22 seconds."
Well, I hope...
Post by: wierd on August 18, 2020, 09:33:24 pm
It largely started when he started trying to promote vaccinations in Africa.
Some American/Western religious and anti-vaxxers started spreading anti-vax conspiracies in those nations, indirectly leading to thousands if not hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths. They played on the general lack of education in Africa.
The "chipping" part comes from this: Along with the injection there's a small amount of UV-reactive dye on the vaccine application device, that sits under the skin, and the application device leaves a different pattern of dye depending on which vaccines they got. The dye sits under the skin for a few years. So the idea is that if you're doing a vaccine program in a part of Africa where everyone is illiterate villagers, you can put the UV scanner on their arm and check for any dye blobs, so you can tell which vaccines were already given and how long ago they were. It's for situations where there is no sort of central record keeping, and is intended to do away with the need to create one, which is the opposite of what the conspiracy theorists will tell you. it's similar to some hysteria about a website using cookies to maintain user persistence between pages. People freak out "I'm being tracked by cookies". But the point is that cookies are decentralized: they only exist on your PC, and using them can actually do away with the need for any central database. If your site doesn't even have a database but it uses cookies, then it's not "tracking" you.
Bill Gates also said something about using digital certificates for record keeping, and this got conflated with the dye trials as "injecting people with digital certificates" which is already crazy, and that then evolved to "injecting people with microchips" and later the 5G stuff was tacked on, too.
I have reservations about the UV dye. If the group is organized enough to mount a mass-innoculation plan, they are organized enough to start digital charts on people, verify eligibility for the vaccination, and record what jabs were given. Anything that leaves an identifiable mark on a patient needs to be done with a great deal of care; Not just crazy christian conservatives have problems with concealed body modification, A good deal of other cultures do too. (Just the christian ones get absolutely hysterical, and cause such a big problem that in some cases, it outweighs the benefit of the innoculations.)
As for tracking cookies-- If cookies were used for their intended function, and ONLY their intended function, I would agree with you. The thing is, tracking people across multiple websites, and using cross-domain scripts to accomplish that, WAS NOT THE INTENT for either cookies, or javascript. Certainly not the production of perniciously persistent cookies, like the now infamous EverCookie. There is a DESIRE to track people, for phat corporate profits through clear and present non-consentual and surreptitious online tracking, and corporate powers compelling developers to misuse their tools. Sure, session persistence in your browser so your shopping cart does not get lost, for instance, is just fine. But abusing Facebook/Google/AWS analytics to tag and then cross evaluate the user's browsing habits through cross site scripting and persistent cookies is not that thing. If the user clears their cookies, RESPECT THEY CLEARED THEIR COOKIES. If they choose not to keep persistent cookies (I do not, for instance-- I use a small compressed ramdisk to hold the browser cache, including the cookie store, mainly because browser makers have juvenile fantasies about how long data should last inside the browser cache, and also about how large it can be and how often it should be written to. I end-run that shit with my setup.) respect that too. At worst, the user has to keep signing in all the damn time, assuming you are using cookies correctly. Website breakage only happens when the developer is using cookies incorrectly.
Who decides when and where cookie use is incorrect? The end user. It's their computer getting the token put on it. That is why respecting the decision must be the norm, and not the other way around.
Post by: Reelya on August 18, 2020, 10:11:11 pm
As for tracking cookies-- If cookies were used for their intended function, and ONLY their intended function, I would agree with you. The thing is, tracking people across multiple websites, and using cross-domain scripts to accomplish that, WAS NOT THE INTENT for either cookies, or javascript. Certainly not the production of perniciously persistent cookies, like the now infamous EverCookie.
The point with evercookie is that it's not a cookie. It uses
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
As for the UV dye, that doesn't actually facilitate the stuff you're talking about. The dye blob doesn't contain any identifiable information. So, sure, you could worry that it could be part of some large data-collection system, but there's no really plausible mechanism for that, since the only time that information is accessible is when a medical worker is pointing the scanner at your arm and sees what blobs you have, and at that point you could be literally anybody. So the blob conveys information but there's no mechanism to cross reference that with anything else to get usable information on an individual.
Post by: wierd on August 18, 2020, 10:18:37 pm
Cookies were not intended to be used that way. That was the point. There're cookies, and there are "cookies". The evercookie is the latter.
Post by: Reelya on August 18, 2020, 10:20:50 pm
EDIT: I know I'm playing devil's advocate a bit, but the point here is that often you hear about these elaborate nefarious plans to track everyone by corporations. however an important question would be: is there a lazier or cheaper way to do it? Having a lot of data to manage is a double-edged sword. For example say TV could do targeted ads, they'd be able to sell the ad space for more money, however collecting and keep track of everyone who watches TV requires you to implement some high-cost back-end stuff and pay staff to manage that side of things.
So it's not just the money they get from ads, the entire cost of designing, building, maintaining the tracking systems must be paid for by the incremental difference in value between generic ad space and targeted ad space. And ... that's not actually worth a super-large amount. For example if they advertise during the Superbowl then they already have a fair profile of who watches the Superbowl and what ads are worthwhile. drilling down to be more specific than that therefore is increasingly marginal in value the more niche the show already becomes. Like if they're playing Transformers on a saturday morning then they can advertise toy cars and lego and shit during the ad breaks, and those ad slots will sell well. Knowing whether it's little Jimmy or Little Johnny watching isn't really worth that much more.
Post by: wierd on August 18, 2020, 10:48:26 pm
As such, respecting conditions that limit corporate profit through technical in-feasibility seems a natural consequence worth accepting, at least in my eyes.
If it costs you more money to manage the data than you can derive from having the data warehoused, then that means you should not be collecting that much data. End of story. It does not mean "Find some way to abuse other people's resources so that we can leverage them surreptitiously and make more moniez for the shareholders! Profits uber alles!"
The impetus to abuse my resources, is exactly why all storage for my browser (including the downloads directory) are hosted out of an ephemeral ramdisk. If it were possible to inject purposefully inaccurate data on top of that, I would.
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on August 19, 2020, 02:59:35 am
Post by: wierd on August 19, 2020, 03:07:28 am
We (as a species) are not in a position to brook such wastefulness. Means to punish bad actors is necessary, but your suggestion is a powerful step backward.
I am down with financial penalties for shareholders, and prison time for CEOs and Directors. However, tariffs are a step backward in all cases except where they stand in for sanctions for bad actors.
Post by: Ibid Straydrink on August 19, 2020, 03:16:14 am
Sounds inefficient (on the global sense).
We (as a species) are not in a position to brook such wastefulness. Means to punish bad actors is necessary, but your suggestion is a powerful step backward.
I am down with financial penalties for shareholders, and prison time for CEOs and Directors. However, tariffs are a step backward in all cases except where they stand in for sanctions for bad actors.
The lust for "efficiency," to me, is a step backwards. I am not concerned with global GDP; to be frank, my primary concerns are the wealth and prominence of my own nation, and those who would stand with us. GDP would take a nosedive, and that is an issue I will not ignore.To that end, I would seek to make economic alliances with other nations who share common interests and bogeymen, to encourage necessary trade, aiming for an allied "autarky." But, at the end of the day understand: I believe that a nation exist first and foremost for its nationals, and I would sooner see the end of my nation and its creed than its continued exploitation for global wealth.
Post by: wierd on August 19, 2020, 03:38:32 am
If one place has phosphate mineral literally just laying on the open ground, and another place has to dig up a goddamn mountain to get to it, the most efficient solution is to have the area with it in abundance, collect and sell it as the primary source.
The issue, is when the thing that is in abundance is labor, and this is exploited in the form of human suffering for cheap prices. The economists do not see a distinction, but I do.
Post by: feelotraveller on August 19, 2020, 08:02:45 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphate_mining_in_Banaba_and_Nauru (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phosphate_mining_in_Banaba_and_Nauru)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru_Regional_Processing_Centre (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nauru_Regional_Processing_Centre)
At least it makes for an interesting case study.
Post by: Reelya on August 19, 2020, 08:22:59 am
Then, when the stuff ran out, they decided to sue Australia for the environmental damages over the whole thing. We settled out of court. But ... going by the raw figures it kind of seems like the massive increase in extraction rates happened after they took control. Additionally they had $1 billion saved up, but that money was lost to corruption and mismanagement. Australia plays some part but they largely did this to themselves. The population of Nauru is only 12000. They could have extracted $10 million worth per year, used that to create jobs and still had the stuff propping up the economy for 200 years.
It's the standard curse of a resource boom and corrupt leadership. Probably the reason they sued Australia was misdirection so that the political class didn't get lynched for ruining the environment then stealing all the money.
As for the John Howard / asylum seeker stuff, which is really shitty from our end, from the Nauru side the only reason to do that is that the top-heavy political class that grew on the back of the phosphate really needed a new revenue source. All of that is nothing to do with taking care of their own people or creating jobs, but about maintaining the gravy train. Considering how few Nauruans there actually are, the government class there is like some kind of souped-up local council who somehow burned through billions of dollars and now they need more to keep their positions. I mean, literally everyone on the island should in fact be quite wealthy now.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 20, 2020, 10:26:28 pm
Back to COVID
Though the USA still leads in total cases, Mexico is leading in new cases (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)
Post by: Reelya on August 20, 2020, 10:32:50 pm
The 7 day rolling average for Mexico was 5521 new cases as of yesterday, whereas for the USA it's 46589. This is why you ignore the "new cases" section of the main page.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2020, 10:45:16 pm
Don't sort by new cases, it's only the new cases as reported up to the current hour, so at the start of the day it resets. For example it says 0 new cases in the USA. That just means they reset the reporting and don't have any of today's data yet for that country. You do in fact have to go into each country's section and compare the previous day's total, which will be complete.Well, no, don't ignore it, just remember to always check the 'yesterday' part because it lags a day. For example, that shows India leading new cases yesterday.
The 7 day rolling average for Mexico was 5521 new cases as of yesterday, whereas for the USA it's 46589. This is why you ignore the "new cases" section of the main page.
Post by: Reelya on August 20, 2020, 11:55:07 pm
Post by: wierd on August 21, 2020, 12:10:25 am
"We gotta stop mail in vote fraud! Defund the USPS!" combined with "SAVE the USPS!" Possibly even in the same sentence.
I am getting to the point where I think Trump has no conception of what words actually mean, and moves forward with the notion that he is just always right, no matter what words he uses.
Bolsonaro seems to be just your run of the mill despot, While the mentally challenged oompa loompa in the whitehouse has had one too many of Mr Wonka's experimental candies, and has clearly lost all grasp on reality.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 21, 2020, 01:54:13 pm
Post by: Starver on August 21, 2020, 02:13:09 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 21, 2020, 09:26:57 pm
looks like Anguilla had 3 cases and 3 recoveries, and thus doesn’t have any infected (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/anguilla/)
That's not particularly noteworthy. It's an island, so easy to isolate, and only has 15000 people. So the real claim to fame there is that a place with 15000 people has no cases, but there are plenty of similar-sized towns which could claim that.
Post by: coalboat on August 22, 2020, 09:17:05 am
Nobody seems to be talking about Urumqi because news cannot get out.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 22, 2020, 10:53:50 am
I honestly think Spain is heading to another lockdown. And I dont think any country can safely reopen schools.
Post by: Starver on August 22, 2020, 03:31:00 pm
;)
Post by: kaenneth on August 24, 2020, 12:35:04 am
Post by: Reelya on August 24, 2020, 01:53:27 am
Post by: forumist on August 24, 2020, 04:35:08 am
I honestly think Spain is heading to another lockdown. And I dont think any country can safely reopen schools.
Regarding the second wave in Europe, I think it will be/is much less steep than the first one, it hits primarily a more healthy part of the population, and hospitals are hopefully better prepared, allowing some time to adjust policies progressively.
I don't know for Spain, but in France, some people are still unable to understand that removing your mask in the suburb train to talk on the phone is not best practice, but most people wear it correctly, and this should make an important difference with respect to the situation in March.
Schools are supposed to re-open soon, and workers will be back from summer vacation, so it is likely the virus will circulate faster, but I have hopes that a strong country-wide lockdown will not be necessary.
Post by: feelotraveller on August 24, 2020, 05:10:23 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 24, 2020, 05:45:05 am
Quote
Schools are supposed to re-open soon, and workers will be back from summer vacation, so it is likely the virus will circulate faster, but I have hopes that a strong country-wide lockdown will not be necessary
I don't have any faith. Deaths and ICU admissions are slowly going up. They tripled between 3 and 14 of August.
I think many western goverments are in wilful denial as to how fast the virus is spreading.
(https://ibb.co/xFX2ywd)Simple truth is that many activities where people wont be compliant with social distancing or masking were allowed for economic reasons. And the time to restrict those was four weeks ago. The more they wait the more restrictions they'll need. And since noone is doing anything I suspect they'll end up panicking sometime next month when its way too late and we'll end up in lockdown #2: covid strikes back
Post by: misko27 on August 24, 2020, 09:25:08 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 24, 2020, 09:30:20 am
If it stays for now at "a few random dudes" levels it doesnt necessarily follow that we'll get mass reinfections.
I'm guessing folks will lose immunity sooner or later, however, so yeah, the so-called "herd immunity" strategies are bs
Post by: McTraveller on August 24, 2020, 10:28:37 am
"The 33-year-old man had only mild symptoms the first time, and no symptoms this time around."
This means he didn't have COVID-19 twice. It means he had SARS-CoV-2 positive results twice, with two different strains.
I would actually be more interested in using this person as a basis for understanding mild/asymptomatic presentation. So even though he wasn't "immune", he wasn't (apparently) impacted by carrying the virus around.
Post by: Zangi on August 24, 2020, 11:46:41 am
Post by: McTraveller on August 24, 2020, 01:26:57 pm
Maybe that's an impossible scenario biologically, I dunno.
Post by: Frumple on August 24, 2020, 01:31:48 pm
S'just, y'know. Those things. That happen to plenty of people that don't have mild reactions. Who can get infected by people with mild reactions.
Post by: wierd on August 24, 2020, 01:51:21 pm
That assumes this guy's response is typical though, and asymptomatic carriers are the norm after initial hard infection.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 24, 2020, 02:10:37 pm
In no way did they advocate jumping to the conclusion that it was so, subjecting public health policy or indeed personal exposure to this hypothesis. I think that still stands. Even if further infections are milder, we should still try as hard as possible to control the ongoing outbreaks.
Post by: misko27 on August 24, 2020, 05:16:01 pm
What I meant is, if you can turn everyone into a person that may carry and spread the virus, but suffer no disease from it, isn't that also an acceptable state?Unclear and unknown. Up until now we hadn't even been sure it was possible to be reinfected to begin with. Whether or not it is more mild is unclear from a singular confirmed case; it's within the bounds of probability that one might get a mild disease then no visible symptoms if the severity of each were entirely unrelated (it's not much weirder than flipping a coin and getting heads twice).
Maybe that's an impossible scenario biologically, I dunno.
Rather this is notable because up until now it wasn't clear whether this was actually a thing. Discussing the possible results of reinfection wasn't very useful if we weren't sure it could happen. Now we know beyond a reasonable doubt it can be... but don't know what it means (although future reinfections will probably be easier to research since we know it can happen).
wierd is right. We can't say too much information about the nature of reinfection yet... only that it does occur, and that in at least one case it was asymptomatic. Best case scenario: guaranteed milder form. But even could mean that people who had a near-deadly experience may still have a tough time with reinfection. And worst case is something like "each reinfection is an independent throw of the dice".
Post by: Egan_BW on August 24, 2020, 06:09:03 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 24, 2020, 06:55:33 pm
With the reinfection thing, the confusion is that they want this thing to be a simple yes/no question. Antibodies assist in resisting a virus, they're not a simple on/off switch.
Post by: Starver on August 24, 2020, 06:58:36 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 24, 2020, 06:59:10 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 24, 2020, 07:01:00 pm
Post by: Starver on August 24, 2020, 07:15:13 pm
(Later on, I probably find out that the bit where I'm 'awake', which isn't all that nice but is good for my soul, is probably also a dream...)
Post by: Bumber on August 24, 2020, 07:49:36 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 25, 2020, 03:40:52 am
Post by: scriver on August 25, 2020, 05:01:30 am
Post by: Reelya on August 25, 2020, 05:18:42 am
I thought the best case scenario was we all wake up to find the Earth hurtling into the sun.
That's the dest. space scenario.
Post by: Reelya on August 25, 2020, 07:04:19 am
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/behind-the-freedom-day-mass-protest-being-planned-across-australia/news-story/653238089ac84b4fc11d910efefd72a4
Quote
Mr Panayides has more than 23,000 followers on Facebook and appears to be a member of Reignite Democracy Australia.
Mr Panayides promotes various conspiracies around vaccinations and 5G technology and doesn’t believe coronavirus is real.
Back in May, Mr Panayides told his followers to smash their TVs in protest of the media telling them what to think.
He smashed his own TV in his backyard, declaring they were terrorising the world and people needed to take the power back.
Dozens of his followers followed suit, filming themselves taking hammers and other tools to their own TVs.
He was also arrested as part of anti-lockdown protests outside Parliament in Victoria.
At the event he was filmed attempting to read a verse from the Bible which, he says, talks about microchips.
At least they're just smashing up their own stuff. But they could at least have donated those screens to charity or left them on the side of the road. I'm betting he smashed a non-working TV and is bullshitting, while his followers were dumb enough to smash working ones.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 25, 2020, 07:17:21 am
Post by: Frumple on August 25, 2020, 07:40:20 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 25, 2020, 07:43:59 am
Post by: Reelya on August 25, 2020, 07:47:21 am
If you buy a recycled version of something even though it 'costs more' than a normal one, you're probably not actually saving resources. You need to ask why it costs more: what energy and resources went into recycling that which didn't go into making a new one?
Post by: Jopax on August 25, 2020, 08:11:40 am
In other, more fun fuckwit related news. Two co-workers from a different shift got a fever yesterday, if it is the plague they probably caught it in the last two weeks of vacation we've had. Regardless, the company decided not to risk anyone else and send that shift to self-isolate is what I'd love to say but can't because they're fuckwits.
What they did do is call me to inform me that I'd be filling in for them while they get better. So not only am I shafted by switching to third shift this week, I'll also be working a two-man position solo. Oh and the big bonus cherry of shit on top is that the risk of getting infected just went up considerably :I
Post by: Starver on August 25, 2020, 09:36:02 am
Quote
...a member of Reignite Democracy Australia."Set fire to Democracy".
Well, that's what they want...
Post by: scriver on August 25, 2020, 01:03:48 pm
Post by: delphonso on August 25, 2020, 07:08:03 pm
Iirc it's largely not worth the effort. There's reclaimable material in most electronics, but not much (barring the plastic, I guess, but that's cheap and difficult to resell), and it's often awkward to extract and process into something reusable. Most people would be spending their time better, cost wise, just working a job (or at least some other money making activity) and either buying a replacement or buying the desired materials directly. Possible but economically inefficient, basically.
Out here in China (depending on where you live), it's not uncommon to see old-timers smashing electronics with hammers. Since wages for the elderly are pretty low, and these are just electronics people have tossed in the trash, it's financially effective for them to break apart electronics, separate the parts out and ship them off for further recycling.
Post by: coalboat on August 26, 2020, 08:14:30 am
Out here in China (depending on where you live), it's not uncommon to see old-timers smashing electronics with hammers. Since wages for the elderly are pretty low, and these are just electronics people have tossed in the trash, it's financially effective for them to break apart electronics, separate the parts out and ship them off for further recycling.
They usually lounge under tree shade on a tricycle during the day. You can call them and they will come to your home and get the old fridge away. They pile their loot under the tree... Sometimes they also provide info to local thieves.
Post by: delphonso on August 26, 2020, 08:39:24 am
Sometimes they also provide info to local thieves.
This is 100% not surprising.
Post by: coalboat on August 26, 2020, 09:57:01 am
Sometimes they also provide info to local thieves.
This is 100% not surprising.
Earlier this year when the quarantine was still enforced and before the neighborhood(xiaoqu) checkpoints were set up, I encountered a man when I went to dump the garbage. He tried to get into the building but didn't know the password of the gate. Then he saw me and pretended to be pressing the door ring to his home. Then he said nobody's home. But I clearly saw him press some random number which was not any real apartment number. He followed in when I got in. When the elevator arrived, he managed to back into the elevator while pretending to be looking around. Combined with wearing a mask, it would be difficult to see his face clearly in the camera footage. Then I talked to him and he got uneasy. I pressed the button of the level below my home and got off and walked home through stairs.
If he was really a thief, he must have tried to find empty apartments to get into as many people were stranded in other cities and couldn't get back in any forseeable future at that time.
Post by: McTraveller on August 26, 2020, 02:51:53 pm
Astonishing lag in data collection. (And yes, I know I've commented on it before...)
Post by: feelotraveller on August 27, 2020, 04:40:00 pm
I think we have an economics thread, though not a data abuse thread
This thread is both. ;)
Talking about the vagueries of data collection in the US:
"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention changed its COVID-19 testing guidelines this week to exclude people without symptoms of coronavirus, even if they’ve recently been in contact with infected individuals. Studies, meanwhile, find nearly half of infections are from asymptomatic transmissions."
https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-fauci-says-he-was-under-anesthesia-when-cdc-changed-covid-19-testing-guidelines?ref=home?ref=home (https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-fauci-says-he-was-under-anesthesia-when-cdc-changed-covid-19-testing-guidelines?ref=home?ref=home)
(Ignore the clickbait title, the article itself is reasonable.)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 27, 2020, 04:59:22 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 27, 2020, 05:02:34 pm
Post by: Starver on August 27, 2020, 05:04:19 pm
Post by: Zangi on August 28, 2020, 12:26:48 am
But incubation time before someone becomes a spreader is about 5 days, not 2-3 months. Is not a well thought out plan.
EDIT: The CDC is still part of the Murrican gov't and subject to the pressure of the political whims of those above them. Even if it has tried to resist that influence, there is only so much they could do when they could just as easily be replaced by yes men in lab coats.
Post by: sluissa on August 28, 2020, 08:38:07 am
They're saying testing immediately after exposure sometimes does not have enough virus to test positive even though days or weeks later they might become positive from that exposure. A negative test after exposure will give people a false sense of safety and cause more spread.
The proper response though would be to give people a time frame to get properly tested rather than just say don't test though.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 28, 2020, 08:49:04 am
Post by: Jopax on August 28, 2020, 10:54:04 am
God I love working with imbeciles.
Post by: scriver on August 28, 2020, 12:21:06 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 28, 2020, 12:29:44 pm
Sweden just went from a 50 person/space limit to 500, seemingly to appease businesses. Just as we are settling in for the autumn and about to see how the school and university starts are going to consequence things. I don't think that was a good move.I think this crisis is showing deep flaws in the political structures in the west. I think every single goverment knows what to do. And noone does it because they also know their actions will be impopjlar in the shirt term
Post by: nenjin on August 28, 2020, 01:33:53 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 28, 2020, 01:54:29 pm
I don’t care about short term, I care about long term, why do so many care more about the short term than the long term?Sweden just went from a 50 person/space limit to 500, seemingly to appease businesses. Just as we are settling in for the autumn and about to see how the school and university starts are going to consequence things. I don't think that was a good move.I think this crisis is showing deep flaws in the political structures in the west. I think every single goverment knows what to do. And noone does it because they also know their actions will be impopjlar in the shirt term
Post by: wierd on August 28, 2020, 01:58:26 pm
That's why.
Post by: hector13 on August 28, 2020, 02:06:24 pm
Post by: wierd on August 28, 2020, 02:24:45 pm
Post by: Reelya on August 28, 2020, 02:54:24 pm
You do actually have to quantify these things and it's a balance of short term needs vs long term needs.
Post by: Akura on August 28, 2020, 03:21:37 pm
Our store is the only one in the region this week to have a positive sales over last year.
Post by: McTraveller on August 28, 2020, 03:26:02 pm
We also still have like nobody in the office and everyone working from home. So I don't even get to appreciate that with the new system, "the office smells like spring!" according to the skeleton crew that does go to the office.
Post by: nenjin on August 28, 2020, 03:44:43 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 28, 2020, 03:50:13 pm
On the other, that also sounds, uh. Not great? From a plague spreading perspective? I guess the purifiers are supposed to stop it, but if they're not like actually 100% effective but are moving a lot of air around, well...
Post by: nenjin on August 28, 2020, 03:51:47 pm
Post by: Starver on August 28, 2020, 04:07:52 pm
In many ways it's safer. People are (generally) quite sensible now[1] and without the funelling into a single queue (on going in, necessary to keep tally of those inside, when they were doing that; on approaching the checkouts, kept everyone from swamping the loading-belt ends - though only by threading them in a lone contactless-conga around the clothing department) there's no forced compression into a single linear strand of humanity.
But it didn't get that way out-of-the-box (and still isn't perfect), so all the little elements had to come together to spark it all off and some obviously still need to be sustained.
[1] Haven't been back in months to the particular supermarket that set up one-way aisles, that it seemed only I was respecting. I prefered being able to choose my transit down wherever was empty rather than being forced down aisles that other people were disobediently passing back up...
Post by: Reelya on August 28, 2020, 04:20:01 pm
Post by: nenjin on August 28, 2020, 04:25:04 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 28, 2020, 04:43:06 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 28, 2020, 04:54:50 pm
I favor the Uranium mines of Bulgaria myself
Post by: Reelya on August 28, 2020, 04:58:35 pm
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/desperate-daniel-andrews-has-only-himself-to-blame/news-story/e2b6137d6dcbad3aaf1a2a45d64d6d6f
(EDIT: looking through some of the guy's backlog of stories, it seems he had some ones poking fun at Trump a while ago, but I'm guessing the FOX/Newscorp actual politburo had a word to him, and the more recent stories are all 100% Trump-to-Victory kind of stuff).
Post by: hector13 on August 28, 2020, 05:05:41 pm
How can people be so stupid? Gulags were labor camps right? This is not anything like a gulag
People are being made to work from home! Where all their entertainment is and they can’t use it! Torture!
Post by: Doomblade187 on August 28, 2020, 05:15:32 pm
*scrolls Bay12 while watching my outbox send work email*How can people be so stupid? Gulags were labor camps right? This is not anything like a gulag
People are being made to work from home! Where all their entertainment is and they can’t use it! Torture!
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 28, 2020, 05:35:33 pm
Post by: Starver on August 28, 2020, 05:41:52 pm
(Wait, the Spacers had weakened disease resitance, due to their overly isolationist attitudes. Darnit, stuck in a immunological paradox!)
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 28, 2020, 05:50:04 pm
Heading quickly towards the Spacer society rather than the Caves Of Steel one!More like The Time Machine, honestly.
(Wait, the Spacers had weakened disease resitance, due to their overly isolationist attitudes. Darnit, stuck in a immunological paradox!)
Post by: Eschar on August 28, 2020, 08:29:28 pm
Heading quickly towards the Spacer society rather than the Caves Of Steel one!
Seveneves?
Post by: Doomblade187 on August 28, 2020, 10:17:08 pm
Post by: martinuzz on August 28, 2020, 10:26:01 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 28, 2020, 11:17:26 pm
In other news, apparently CNN is reporting some of the sacks of shit in the white house are now outright saying they expect fucking everybody in the US to catch the plague. So stateside folks hold on to your ass even more, we're approaching 200k dead and that's probably only going to be about a tenth of it before this administration finishes playing fucking plague bringer with the country.
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2020, 07:48:55 am
Contact tracement revealed the vast majority of infections to occur at home and at work. Pubs and bars only account for a very small percentage.
Last week, a new rule was added that you cannot gather in a house / appartment with more than 6 people (unless more than 6 people are living there). Our prime minister added the request to please use bars and pubs instead with that rule, because those are better equipped to manage social distancing for larger groups.
Post by: Bumber on August 29, 2020, 09:46:38 am
An example is this article, which seems reasonable when you read it, up to the point where he claims the state labor government is like the 'politburo', and if you click the author's name the most recent article he's written is about how Trump's speech was a masterwork compared to Biden's lame attempt. Naturally, this paper is owned by Rupert Murdoch. So you can take this article at face value i guess but ... trump-loving Rupert Murdoch-paid opinion columnist.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/desperate-daniel-andrews-has-only-himself-to-blame/news-story/e2b6137d6dcbad3aaf1a2a45d64d6d6f
(EDIT: looking through some of the guy's backlog of stories, it seems he had some ones poking fun at Trump a while ago, but I'm guessing the FOX/Newscorp actual politburo had a word to him, and the more recent stories are all 100% Trump-to-Victory kind of stuff).
Article is paywalled.
Post by: Frumple on August 29, 2020, 10:04:06 am
Ordering from supermarkets online is something a lot of people cannot afford. Higher prices, plus having to order large amounts at once just does not play well with those on the low-income side of society.The at-once thing is more of a problem*, but at least where I'm shopping, as near as I've noticed prices are identical. No markup, least for the stuff I actually shop for. Maybe I'm missing some of it, or my memory's deteriorated from not actually going into a grocery store since like... March or something... but at least for the staples I regularly tracked previously, the prices mostly haven't been higher.
*Though the minimum order is only 35 bucks at the nearest place to me offering curbside, and as someone that's been on the low-income side of society literally my entire life, grocery shopping only once or twice a month is how I've saved money. You do larger shopping trips to save on transit costs and time. Definitely do understand plenty of folks have more trouble doing that for various reasons, though. Still. Access to the means to make the order (internet, banking and credit/debit cards, reliable transport to get to the store and back with a substantial amount of stuff) is probably what I'd note as a larger issue.
Quote
Contact tracement revealed the vast majority of infections to occur at home and at work. Pubs and bars only account for a very small percentage.Hasn't that had a lot to do with the pubs and bars being closed, or at least significantly less trafficked than prior to the plague? The infections occur mostly where there's people, from what I understand.
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2020, 12:36:07 pm
Also, they usually do not have a large enough fridge to store 1 month of groceries.
And indeed, access to internet banking is an issue too for a lot of folks. A lot of low income people are under administration, which means they do not have access to internet banking. They get a weekly allowance which can be less than the minimum of 70 euros that a lot of home delivery grocieries require, if they accept ATM card payment at the door to begin with (they don't, you need to pay online). Credit cards are not a thing over here either, except for the rich and the fools. Credit cards are a US insanity. People here are taught not to spend what you don't have.
Post by: Reelya on August 29, 2020, 12:53:31 pm
Also, I don't know about banking in the Netherlands, but here I have a VISA debit card. That works like a credit card online but it comes out of my bank account.
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2020, 01:18:57 pm
Most of that goes to paying rent, gas/electra/water and healthcare insurance.
Once those are paid, it leaves somewhere between 50 and 70 euros a week for groceries, clothing and unforseen expenditures, which is really not much if you look at the prices of food and clothing.
It is completely impossible to own a car and pay road taxes, vehicle insurance and petrol (or get a driver's license, 2000-3000 euros) from that income.
Then again, cars aren't so much of a nescessity as they are in the US for we do not have vast distances to travel to go shopping or get anywhere.
We are one of the strongest economies in the world, and a very wealthy country, but income disparity between the rich and the poor is also one of the highest if not the highest in Europe.
Post by: Starver on August 29, 2020, 01:49:21 pm
Reminds me of one of the justification for the "moral" imperative to send kids back to school, over here.QuoteContact tracement revealed the vast majority of infections to occur at home and at work. Pubs and bars only account for a very small percentage.Hasn't that had a lot to do with the pubs and bars being closed, or at least significantly less trafficked than prior to the plague? The infections occur mostly where there's people, from what I understand.
"We haven't had any infections traced to school children mixing..." Well, probably that's because there have been only a limited number of children mixing at school for the last three or ?four? months now...
(Unrelated to COVID, the same sort of trick was played with our 'smart motorways' development. We have an acknowledged very safe motorway network, so based upon this they feel justified in changing the base design principle of three transit lanes + hard-shoulder(/dedicated rescue lane for emergency use; i.e. breakdowns when they need to pull over or emergency vehicles to pass stationary traffic) into four lanes and occasional emergency refuges, and then are surprised when incidents happen seem to suggest it's no longer as safe to have broken down vehicles stuck on active lanes. The goalposts are moved, and they are highly surprised when the rate of scoring changes...)
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2020, 02:29:20 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 29, 2020, 04:07:06 pm
With a surprise showing from jeremy corbyn's brother
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 29, 2020, 05:52:00 pm
Potential reinfection within weeks. If that timeframe isn't an extreme outlier that's the worst case scenario coming to pass.
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 29, 2020, 07:50:07 pm
big moment with 10,000 protesters in London claiming covid is a hoax (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8676875/Thousands-anti-maskers-believe-pandemic-HOAX-march-against-lockdown-London.html)Weaksauce. They have nothing on Berlin's ~40k.
Post by: ZBridges on August 29, 2020, 07:52:47 pm
Symptomatic reinfection confirmed. (https://abcnews.go.com/Health/nevada-lab-confirms-1st-coronavirus-reinfection-us/story?id=72691353) Though the dates are only a few weeks apart, genetic testing of the two infections rules out the second being a direct descendant of the first.
Potential reinfection within weeks. If that timeframe isn't an extreme outlier that's the worst case scenario coming to pass.
Does this being the first confirmation of reinfection in 6 million cases suggest that reinfection is extremely rare, or is there another reason?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 29, 2020, 07:57:37 pm
Additionally, the odds game is at play. There have been other reports of reinfection, they're just asymptomatic. So you have an unknown number of real covid cases out there, with an unknown number of genetically distinct strains, and you're waiting for one to cross over the other. In a world of billions, that might take some time.
Post by: Starver on August 30, 2020, 02:19:51 am
As in, whatever makes the second (third, subsequent...) 'hit' of virus get around the aquired immunity of the earlier exposure(s) manages to get in there while the patient is still fighting (but winning) the early round...
(If we knew to look for it, we could probably detect by tests if H1N1 was joined by H18N11, through unforeseen reasons, but perhaps "being ill is being ill", and taking a turn for the worse isn't unusual in any condition so would anyone necessarily think to check?)
Still too many unknowns here, and I'm just riffing on the idea without any actual info to back my wild hypothecating up.
Post by: misko27 on August 30, 2020, 02:15:52 pm
Does this being the first confirmation of reinfection in 6 million cases suggest that reinfection is extremely rare, or is there another reason?This is the first confirmed symptomatic reinfection. We previously (albeitly recently) confirmed reinfection, but that case was asymptomatic (other instances were confirmed in Europe soon afterward I believe), leading some to hope that that would be the norm.
So many variables...
Post by: Reelya on August 30, 2020, 02:35:26 pm
Post by: martinuzz on September 02, 2020, 11:06:27 am
The scientists investigated blood samples of over 30000 Icelanders. Of those, 1215 people were found to be infected.
91% of those infected showed a sharp increase in antibodies the first two months after diagnosis, after which the number of antibodies remained stable.
So it looks like losing immunity within a few months is not the standard, it's somewhat rare.
Post by: Akura on September 02, 2020, 03:18:07 pm
Post by: ZBridges on September 02, 2020, 05:26:52 pm
An Icelandic studies has shown that 90% of recovered covid patients still had high concentrations of antibodies against the virus after 4 months.
The scientists investigated blood samples of over 30000 Icelanders. Of those, 1215 people were found to be infected.
91% of those infected showed a sharp increase in antibodies the first two months after diagnosis, after which the number of antibodies remained stable.
So it looks like losing immunity within a few months is not the standard, it's somewhat rare.
Hmm. Maybe reinfection, at this point, actually is rare?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 02, 2020, 05:28:00 pm
Post by: Frumple on September 02, 2020, 05:29:34 pm
Some of the schools in my area re-opened today. Not the cluster of schools nearest me, but electronic sign outside the fence did have the instruction "Cough into your elbow".Cool. Give it a couple weeks and you can get to see the infection rates in your area ~completely inexplicably~ jump up a bit. Something to look forward to!
Post by: Starver on September 02, 2020, 05:59:59 pm
Thus study pretty directly conflicts with the previous one suggesting most people would lose antibodies in a few months. Bizarre.Viking blood is best blood!
Post by: ZBridges on September 02, 2020, 06:05:25 pm
"Scientists say that although reinfection is likely possible, it's also extremely rare. This is the first documented reinfection among nearly 6 million COVID-19 cases to date."
They don't provide any sources for that. Great reporting.
Post by: wierd on September 03, 2020, 12:05:28 am
https://elifesciences.org/articles/59177
Interesting prospects for interventions in acute cases, if theory holds.
Post by: scriver on September 03, 2020, 12:15:41 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on September 03, 2020, 12:33:23 am
Post by: Bumber on September 03, 2020, 12:59:13 am
Post by: Starver on September 03, 2020, 01:21:58 am
Post by: wierd on September 03, 2020, 01:45:43 am
brady means "slow"
Such as bradycardia, "Low heart rate"
It is the antonym of Tachy, ("Fast")
It has nothing to do with a story of a man named Brady who was bringing up three boys of his own.
Post by: Greiger on September 03, 2020, 02:33:17 am
I guess that makes sense, though they must be really slow if cities have time to put signs up in their vicinity.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 03, 2020, 02:36:18 am
Post by: delphonso on September 03, 2020, 05:27:17 am
Post by: Jopax on September 03, 2020, 09:10:40 am
You'd think the obvious response to having someone show clear symptoms would be to test everyone in their shift just in case and not just send them home and hope for the best. Guess the fuckers are going to reap what they've sown now when they're forced to shut down all 3 shifts in a few weeks when everyone gets inevitably infected.
Capitalism ho! indeed.
Post by: TamerVirus on September 03, 2020, 09:18:34 am
His buddy, Sonic Hedgehog (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonic_hedgehog) tried to assist until he too was inhibited by Robotnikinin (https://otd.harvard.edu/explore-innovation/technologies/robotnikinin-small-molecule-inhibitor-of-sonic-hedgehog-shh-signaling-in-hu/)
Post by: Reelya on September 04, 2020, 05:27:59 pm
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-australia-live-victoria-qld-nsw-covid19/live-coverage/13df46f1482932899e9bb0010316c0d3
Quote
Prominent anti-coronavirus conspiracy theorist James Bartolo has warned his supporters not to attend an anti-lockdown protest today, calling it a "trap".
Mr Bartolo, who was arrested yesterday morning over inciting an illegal protest, wrote he was “concerned about the safety of the brave men and women who plan to go” to the demonstration.
“The police are not forcing me to say anything,” he wrote in a post on Facebook last night, adding his bail orders say he “cannot speak about anything related to coronavirus or protests”.
“I will continue speaking about the wrong in the world, but I’m not going to break that bail order and risk being arrested and locked up,” he said.
In a separate post, the 27-year-old called attending a protest “the worst possible thing to do”.
“It is a set up from the get go. It is all just terrible. Don’t go to that one,” he said.
I don't think he comprehends what a "set up" is. They've already arrested people at similar protests and they've made it clear that the protests are not sanctioned. Where is the "set up".
Post by: Dunamisdeos on September 04, 2020, 06:56:02 pm
Post by: Iduno on September 05, 2020, 09:32:00 am
My buddy has tested positive, and I have been around him frequently. He likely got it from attending a wedding.
Dang. I hope things work out. Have you gotten a test yet?
Post by: Reelya on September 05, 2020, 07:43:57 pm
Now I'm imagining making my own face shield from a 2 litre plastic Coke bottle and some rubber bands and thinking this is literally the only time you could strap a PET bottle to your face and people not think you've completely gone insane.
Post by: Starver on September 05, 2020, 08:48:50 pm
(Relevent. Also seems to be open-topped.)
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 05, 2020, 08:52:17 pm
https://www.mylondon.news/news/health/unbelievable-95-face-covering-protect-18437750I just want to drop something in that. Like spiders or something. You know?
(Relevent. Also seems to be open-topped.)
Post by: nenjin on September 05, 2020, 08:52:30 pm
My buddy has tested positive, and I have been around him frequently. He likely got it from attending a wedding.
Good luck man.
Post by: dragdeler on September 05, 2020, 09:08:17 pm
Post by: Reelya on September 06, 2020, 03:30:16 am
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24614097/
Well I was just reading about some Covid vaccine work and learned that they're using ad36 as the carrier, out of all 52 possible types of adenovirus. I thought "what were they thinking?" for a second but then I realized that such a vaccine doubles as an ad36 vaccine. Maybe some researchers trying to slip mass inoculation for ad36 in along with the Covid thing?
https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)31068-0.pdf
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200824/Single-dose-nasal-vaccine-against-SARS-CoV-2-shows-promise-in-animal-studies.aspx
Post by: wierd on September 06, 2020, 04:11:00 pm
Sadly, a lot of the issue with obesity in the US is straight up dietary. (of course, viral vectors that upregulate fat storage do not help matters) The rise of obesity correlates nicely with the "Heart healthy! Lower fat! Lower salt!" change in formulations of basically everything on the market. When you have food that lacks those, you have food that is bland and unpalatable; But the food industry learned that if you load it with enough sugars, people will still buy it with gusto. Fast forward a few decades, throw in some lobbyist action from Iowa Corn Growers Assn, and the southern states sugar lobby, and you have grossly inexpensive HFCS, and captive expensive sugar (which helps keep HFCS prices low), which are less expensive than the original fats that were added for flavor and texture. (any fats for texture now tend to be highly processed waste seed oils, like cotton seed, that have been hydrogenated into something just short of being something more like a paraffin wax, than what it was intended to replace, metabolically speaking). Am I suggesting that the original formulations are somehow healthy? No. No I am not. Just that the newer formulations are even LESS healthy.)
If you are seriously interested in combating the heart disease and obesity epidemics, you are gonna have to buckle down, and outlaw highly processed foods, in their entirety. (Diabetic fat women who "Just cant live without their DingDongs!", would just have to learn how to make their own snack cakes at home.)
Given that this would mean crippling a huge chunk of the market for not just the snacks themselves, but all the products used to make them (like the afore-mentioned waste seed oils, and the processing to hydrogenate them), and it could have serious economic backlash from being done. At least people would be significantly less likely to die from heart attacks, type II diabetes, and CHF (due to obesity), but no politician that is not suicidal is going to go down that road.
Post by: Reelya on September 06, 2020, 05:09:58 pm
Would be nice if it works out like that.
Sadly, a lot of the issue with obesity in the US is straight up dietary.
How the ad36 and similar virus works is that they enhance the grow of adipose tissue permanently, which sucks glucose out of the bloodstream. The result is constant lethargy and hunger. So yeah, it's still straight up dietary in that sense, but people who aren't affected don't actually have any superiority in willpower, they're just literally not as hunger.
https://www.wired.com/2016/12/mysterious-virus-cause-obesity/
Note that this guy got clawed by a chicken and subsequently bloated out and is the only one in his lean farming family with any weight issues, despite constantly trying to monitor what he eats far more than the rest of his family. In addition to that they have twin studies where one twin is fatter than the other, and the fat twins have a much higher prevalence of AD36 antibodies.
AD36 is found in 30% of obese people, but obese people who are positive for AD36 antibodies are on average a lot heavier than obese people who are not positive for AD36. So people who are "just fat" but without the AD36 virus tend to cluster more towards the bottom of the scale where they're just over the official line of whatever obesity is defined at, and the AD36 virus is far more common among the morbidly obese. Plus, there are other viruses which do the same thing mentioned in that article I linked, for example the chicken one, so we should be testing for a range of viral infections: AD36 is only culprit #1, not the only culprit.
Post by: Egan_BW on September 06, 2020, 06:09:04 pm
Post by: hector13 on September 06, 2020, 10:21:54 pm
Also broke the record for number of positive tests in a day on Friday, but I think they also did the most tests ever, too. Kinda sad that they haven’t been testing as much lately. For some reason I think 11k daily tests is good (or 12k, 2% of the population) and they’ve been under that for weeks.
Also heading for Fall, and however fun that is for airborne respiratory diseases. I tend to get sick when the seasons change (as probably most people do) and I managed to avoid that for Spring, I hope I avoid it for Fall...
Post by: scriver on September 07, 2020, 12:43:56 am
At the same time my foreign family are coming down ill with harsh flu symptoms, which worries me a lot. My uncle is a heavy smoker at that.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 07, 2020, 02:53:30 am
Sweden's numbers has been low or a while now and currently has the among the lowest spreading in Europe (compared to the last two weeks) and for the last couple or weeks the media has really been ramping up the "so can we go back to normal now already" line, and I can't evenIts the same everywhere. Thats why Spain is like it is nowadays. Many people saying its an outlier... but it isnt, not really. Same thing happened in Florida 2 months ago.
At the same time my foreign family are coming down ill with harsh flu symptoms, which worries me a lot. My uncle is a heavy smoker at that.
It's the covid second wave alongside with a second round of "it wont happen here" domino
Post by: scriver on September 07, 2020, 05:03:03 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on September 07, 2020, 11:18:58 pm
Post by: Frumple on September 07, 2020, 11:37:17 pm
Post by: Reelya on September 07, 2020, 11:42:33 pm
People forget that the media are Darwinian. It's easy to blame the media for being clickbait, but the problem is that we reward them for that behavior so the clickbait media is all that's left. There are honest and accurate news sources that eschew sensationalist. But we don't read them so they go broke.
Post by: wierd on September 07, 2020, 11:49:16 pm
https://www.pbs.org/about/producing-pbs/editorial-standards/
I guess getting funded by grants and donations, instead of ad revenue, makes all the difference?
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2020, 02:41:26 am
Post by: wierd on September 08, 2020, 03:13:10 am
PBS on the other hand, has to try to defend every dollar it gets. See also, how Mr Rodgers had to testify to congress to keep children's television workshop as a thing. (https://www.pbs.org/video/mister-rogers-goes-washington-ycjrnx/)
Begging for scraps is the exact opposite of "Too much exposure".
Post by: Zangi on September 08, 2020, 12:07:49 pm
So really, we got what we got. People able to push their version of news.
To put the shit show best murrica has lightly.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 08, 2020, 03:26:28 pm
A lot of people here are acting as if a second Swedish wave isn't possible (likely because of the herd immunity narrative, which is once again 100% invented and pushed by the media). I think that ending up with a second wave after finally riding out our first one, and losing so many people to it, would just be even more terrible.I get the impression that the 2nd wave its being a reprise of the first wave as far as mismanagement goes. The Spanish goverment pretending nothing is wrong (again). THe UK has been pretending for weeks that this was a Spanish thing (again) and now cases are shooting up there as well. etc, etc...
Post by: NJW2000 on September 08, 2020, 05:22:26 pm
I get the impression that the 2nd wave its being a reprise of the first wave as far as mismanagement goes. The Spanish goverment pretending nothing is wrong (again). THe UK has been pretending for weeks that this was a Spanish thing (again) and now cases are shooting up there as well. etc, etc...
If you think they're shooting up now, wait until the young people get back to uni :P
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 08, 2020, 05:41:32 pm
Well in Spain they're already back in uni since a week ago. No further increases so far... decreasing in some areas actually. We'll see if it holdsI get the impression that the 2nd wave its being a reprise of the first wave as far as mismanagement goes. The Spanish goverment pretending nothing is wrong (again). THe UK has been pretending for weeks that this was a Spanish thing (again) and now cases are shooting up there as well. etc, etc...
If you think they're shooting up now, wait until the young people get back to uni :P
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2020, 06:09:57 pm
(How many U-turns in policy is that now?)
Next thing, there'll be a weird inverted "Beyond The Wall" thing implemented by Sturgeon to keep invaders from south of the border trying to break through at Castle Mhairi.
Post by: Iduno on September 08, 2020, 06:17:25 pm
More of a reminder of how much damage people trying to rush things to improve the economy are actually doing to the economy.
Post by: Reelya on September 08, 2020, 06:20:46 pm
https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-cost-122-billion-public-health-due-coronavirus-spread-economists-1530422 (https://www.newsweek.com/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-cost-122-billion-public-health-due-coronavirus-spread-economists-1530422)
More of a reminder of how much damage people trying to rush things to improve the economy are actually doing to the economy.
From the url I thought that said $122 billion. XD still a lot as it apparently caused 260,000 infections.
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2020, 06:28:49 pm
Post by: McTraveller on September 08, 2020, 06:51:59 pm
Quote
According to the SSRN paper, the average cost of treating an individual who does not die as a result of contracting the virus is $46,000.
To me that's the real WTF. On a couple fronts. One, that it takes essentially an entire year's median wage to "treat an individual who does not die." Second, that they are applying that cost to every person who gets sick. So either that means that the average cost of a person who requires treatment is even greater by an astonishing factor, or they are artificially inflating their number by multiplying the treatment cost by the infection count, not the treatment-required count. (Consider I personally know 4 people who had the disease, none of whom required hospitalization or even any medical care beyond OTC medicine*.)
*Yes at least over the short term of now 2 months since they were sick. No new complications have appeared in that time. Maybe costs will be higher by some unknown amount in the future due to lingering effects.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 08, 2020, 06:54:32 pm
Oh well.
Post by: Egan_BW on September 08, 2020, 06:58:24 pm
Post by: wierd on September 08, 2020, 07:23:23 pm
To fix this and a great many other societal ills in the US, we would need to fix the lobbying situation. But that will never happen, because that's a gravy train for politicians.
Post by: Doomblade187 on September 08, 2020, 07:36:14 pm
Post by: Reelya on September 08, 2020, 07:45:32 pm
QuoteAccording to the SSRN paper, the average cost of treating an individual who does not die as a result of contracting the virus is $46,000.
To me that's the real WTF. On a couple fronts. One, that it takes essentially an entire year's median wage to "treat an individual who does not die." Second, that they are applying that cost to every person who gets sick. So either that means that the average cost of a person who requires treatment is even greater by an astonishing factor, or they are artificially inflating their number by multiplying the treatment cost by the infection count, not the treatment-required count. (Consider I personally know 4 people who had the disease, none of whom required hospitalization or even any medical care beyond OTC medicine*.)
*Yes at least over the short term of now 2 months since they were sick. No new complications have appeared in that time. Maybe costs will be higher by some unknown amount in the future due to lingering effects.
Here's the source they're using:
https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/13632/the-forgotten-numbers-a-closer-look-at-covid-19-non-fatal-valuations
Quote
we estimate an overall non-fatal unadjusted valuation of $2.2 trillion for the U.S. with a weighted average value of about $46,000 per case. This is almost 40% higher than the total valuation of $1.6 trillion (using about $11 million VSL from the DOT) for all approximately 147,000 Covid-fatalities
So the total figure they calculate is $2.2 trillion, and $1.6 trillion of that is accounted for just by fatalities. But that $2.2 trillion is then spread over 47 million cases, to give the average of $46000 per case. It's actually conservative since they're spreading the $2.2 trillion in costs among 47 million estimated cases rather than just the 6 million confirmed cases. When you exclude fatalities and their direct costs, the remaining $600 million works out as $15 per person spread among 46+ million people. So the real story here is that the hospitalization cases are especially costly, enough so to mean $46000 each when spread over 50 million people most of whom don't even know they got sick.
Post by: McTraveller on September 09, 2020, 07:05:19 am
Post by: Rockeater on September 10, 2020, 11:29:31 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 15, 2020, 03:20:03 am
Post by: scriver on September 15, 2020, 04:34:06 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 15, 2020, 04:57:05 am
https://www.eldiario.es/internacional/confinamiento-total-israel-aviva-protestas-comunidad-ultraortodoxa-divide-gobierno_1_6220713.html
Post by: Jopax on September 15, 2020, 05:10:39 am
I feel like my country is in a similar boat, but mostly because our first wave was like under 1k cases total, then as folks relaxed and the restrictions dropped (especially on travel) we've seen a massive increase (tho apparently, still manageable) in cases for most of the country, with few signs of stopping or slowing down. Tho, thankfully it doesn't seem to be massively speeding up either, but I'm not sure if that's due to lack of testing or simply slower spread as a lot of folks seem to still be rocking masks.
Post by: Rockeater on September 15, 2020, 06:25:12 am
Post by: Starver on September 15, 2020, 06:53:12 am
BBC had an article about the choice to go for a new national lockdown in Israel, yesterday. And "Housing Minister Yaakov Litzman, who leads an ultra-Orthodox Jewish party, said the measures would prevent Jewish people from celebrating their religious festivals, including Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, on 27 September." He resigned and threatened to break-up the coalition over this.
It's possible that initial lockdown measures were forced open again too soon by this side of the coalition, perhaps? I'm not sure it was Yom Kipur levels of "want" to be opened back up (like there's going to be a lot of grumbling if anyone's Christmas is to be spent underocal lockdown, over here, but probably far more so in the secular sphere if I'm any judge) but it sounds like they've got a political lever firmly under the lid-rim of the huge can of worms this appears to be...
Post by: hector13 on September 15, 2020, 07:04:00 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 15, 2020, 07:50:00 am
Post by: hector13 on September 15, 2020, 01:21:39 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 15, 2020, 01:35:56 pm
Yeah, apparently keeping people from getting sick is less important than getting everyone together to get them sick in the name of tradition.
Tradition! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRdfX7ut8gw)
Post by: Reelya on September 16, 2020, 04:55:28 am
Post by: delphonso on September 16, 2020, 06:39:12 am
Post by: Starver on September 16, 2020, 09:02:10 am
Post by: MCreeper on September 16, 2020, 10:15:42 am
It's just word-soup, aint it? He's historically heard of "herd immunity" and now happens to have hewn from whole-cloth a wholly hateful harangue, whereupon his hollering hordes (who habitually hold hoardings against heeding unhued headlines as even halfway-honourable, which is hardly holistic, honourable or helpful) hie themselves and a host of others, hot-foot, on an unhealthy highway to hell.THAT's a word-soup.
Post by: Starver on September 16, 2020, 10:26:42 am
Post by: martinuzz on September 16, 2020, 10:41:07 am
Post by: gamer31 on September 17, 2020, 09:34:51 am
Post by: Zangi on September 17, 2020, 10:50:02 am
But the same people were up in arms over a few Ebola deaths under Obama’s administration.
Post by: Starver on September 17, 2020, 03:37:26 pm
It seems that, because of COVID, Ripdorf got ripped-off by Holdenstedt not holding-back.
Post by: forumist on September 18, 2020, 04:10:27 am
TLDR: Wearing masks seems to decrease the severity of the disease for those infected despite wearing the mask.
This might help populations acquire at least some partial immunity ((me commenting:) with lesser risks than letting everyone contaminate oneself happily in foolish COVID parties, and without having to rely too much on much-talked-about-but-not-yet-available vaccines).
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 18, 2020, 04:23:39 am
Post by: scriver on September 18, 2020, 04:47:56 am
Me: Classy covid masquerade
Post by: McTraveller on September 19, 2020, 08:22:46 am
Crazy how people so readily turn a blind eye to nearly 200k deaths.This isn't really that crazy. It's the "large number" problem manifest: the total numbers are large and truly significant, but the proximal experience of any random individual is likely very small numbers. Unless you work in front-line health care, or are in a very hard-hit urban area, the odds of experiencing high instances of illness are low by "everyday" standards - I mean yes 1% of a population being infected is low, but if 1 out of 100 people you know are sick, you hardly notice. Heck most people are sick themselves for any reason more than 1 out of 100 days a year, but it doesn't even register...
But the same people were up in arms over a few Ebola deaths under Obama’s administration.
Consider my sphere of acquaintances is roughly 1000 people when I consider my work and church. Out of that 1000 people, I only know 5 people personally who have had COVID-19, and only one that has died from it (and they were in their upper 80s). 5 out of 1000 infected and 1 out of 1000 deaths is very much of in the personal statistical noise area. Especially when there have been several other deaths due to "old age" (leukemia, other chronic issues). But that is my experience, not yours.
In other words, don't be surprised by the highly localized geography and personal experiences when it comes to how people respond to this. Also, don't say people are not experiencing what they experience - when something truly is not that bad in their area, don't tell them they are wrong and it is really bad! Because for them it isn't - even though in other places it really is.
But when you scale 5 out of a 1000 (just to keep the math simple, not to be an accurate count) to 10M people, or 1B people, you start getting large absolute numbers that really are meaningless to the average person. I mean 5000 sick? What does that mean? 5 million sick? It really is just a number on a page; it's not something the mind can easily comprehend in a concrete way.
Post by: Akura on September 21, 2020, 10:10:35 am
Her argument was that since she doesn't get the flu vaccine, why should she get the coronavirus.
As she was saying this, we passed by the elementary school playground, which had some children playing there. Little social distancing, and about half the kids had masks. Then my mom made a racist comment about one them.
Post by: Zangi on September 21, 2020, 10:45:52 am
Sounds like a rush job. Let other people be the guinea pigs of this mass public test. Wait till June of next year to see if there are no adverse/unknown effects.
Post by: misko27 on September 21, 2020, 03:33:53 pm
Quote
Her argument was that since she doesn't get the flu vaccine, why should she get the coronavirus.She is at least consistent in her stupid, which I approve of, at least compared to alternatives.
I think it is crazy how people cannot accept the severity of the pandemic. I mean, if you look at the data given, it is so obvious that we should be careful and look after each other. Instead, some people are just so stubborn and see wearing a mask as a violation of rights.Yes the equivalent of all the US casualties in Vietnam and Korea 2 1/2 times over, and people go "well I mean people die." The speed at which people became numb to sustained and shocklingly high death rates is genuinely troubling.
Post by: Reelya on September 21, 2020, 07:50:51 pm
And if you point at excess deaths they can claim the lockdowns caused those deaths. There's a lot of circular logic there but people just believe what they want to believe then come up with the rationalizations later. Sadly there's no talking to those people until someone they know dies of the thing.
Post by: Frumple on September 21, 2020, 08:06:02 pm
You'd hope family or friends dying to it or otherwise being personally effected would change a mind, but... well, not as often as it should :-\
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2020, 03:27:18 am
So, obviously, it's healthier to catch the virus!
...
What we currently have is people who are known to have Covid who died without any obvious other condition, who died with co-morbidity not usually considered high risk in this day and age, died with a life-limiting condition that should not have been so limiting, were already in terminal decline from something but with heavy Covid effects, ... got hit by a bus (and straight into the path of a steamroller) while infected.
Some commentators only accept the very first figure as the basis of the 'true death rate', perhaps as an extreme backlash against the stats not always being able to remove the very last (especially if it also includes "untested but suspected Covid" versions of the above, which apparently isn't good enough for the front-end list items even with the word "highly" stuck in there) from the grand total.
And now they're also 'benefitting' from the latest Excess Deaths figures (by picking a suitable historic lead-up that works well for them) being depressed due to a large number of those who might have been a current Excess having already been taken by the initial peak, leaving a marginally fitter population to ride easier over any later surge in infections.
Another problem with the bare stats being used is the inadequate initial testing rates meant many highly likely infections were unable to be confirmed (mostly those where things were not so bad as to have any doubt of survival) which inflates the "known known" death rate (but also the unprovable "known unknown" and "unknown unknown") and now with greater testing numbers, cherry-picking the right detection and death stats makes it look like it's just "too much testing, when things are actuay getting better", when it's just as deadly.
And an analogy I used the other day (which was quicker to explain in the context of that moment) about lockdowns was like being in a car going down a steep hill. You suddenly notice sheep on and by the road ahead, slam on the brakes (jolting the passengers, things fly off the parcel-shelf; basically disruptive to all concerned) before realising they're actually further off than you realised (any that you did avoid hitting are just part of a larger flock). So you ease off on the brakes (you're still on the hill, so you're naturally speeding up), and someone in the back seat is complaining about the lost time so you might even step heavier on the gas. But there are still sheep on the road and you're still heading towards them, and you're now back to recklessly anti-ovine speeds again. Anyone complaining that putting the brakes in the first time just did more harm than good isn't honestly thinking through what would have happened if there were no brakes at all, etc.
Post by: Greiger on September 22, 2020, 01:36:35 pm
Went in to get the supplements, as well as a few other things (If I have to go out might as well get everything in one trip) and there were literally no customers in the store wearing masks, so much for enforcing the mask policy.
Now I've been sick with what I had assumed was the flu for the last 2 days, basically bedridden. I'm only at the computer now because my back is sore from lying in bed so long and sitting feels better.
Because I'm sick my mom can't get chemo until I show it's not covid. Can't do the quick test because I have not been sick long enough, apparently the 15 minute test is not accurate if you've been sick less than 5 days. So I get a normal covid test and get a flu test too, because if I'm confirmed for the flu it's probably not covid and mom can get chemo.
....Flu test came back negative. Covid test still pending. If I got covid because a store didn't have the balls to enforce a mask policy despite a big bright yellow sign out front saying they do I'll lose my shit. If I have covid my mom's chemo is put on hold for a month, let alone what happens if she catches it from me.
(also flu and covid nasal swabs suck eyes were still watering 5 minutes later)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 22, 2020, 01:52:49 pm
Had to go to a dollar general a bit over a week ago because the place we usually get groceries delivered from was out of my mom's supplements 2 weeks in a row. Put my mask on, saw they had a nice big sign out front saying that they enforce their mask policy.
Went in to get the supplements, as well as a few other things (If I have to go out might as well get everything in one trip) and there were literally no customers in the store wearing masks, so much for enforcing the mask policy.
Now I've been sick with what I had assumed was the flu for the last 2 days, basically bedridden. I'm only at the computer now because my back is sore from lying in bed so long and sitting feels better.
Because I'm sick my mom can't get chemo until I show it's not covid. Can't do the quick test because I have not been sick long enough, apparently the 15 minute test is not accurate if you've been sick less than 5 days. So I get a normal covid test and get a flu test too, because if I'm confirmed for the flu it's probably not covid and mom can get chemo.
....Flu test came back negative. Covid test still pending. If I got covid because a store didn't have the balls to enforce a mask policy despite a big bright yellow sign out front saying they do I'll lose my shit. If I have covid my mom's chemo is put on hold for a month, let alone what happens if she catches it from me.
(also flu and covid nasal swabs suck eyes were still watering 5 minutes later)
That's ludicrous. They shouldnt hold your mother's chemo for a month for being a contact
Post by: Greiger on September 22, 2020, 02:03:00 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 22, 2020, 02:08:38 pm
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2020, 03:17:31 pm
If the chemo is for (or incidentally harms) the immune system, then perhaps the risk must be weighed up between continuing to immuno-compromise the patient (in an effort to keep on treating for the original condition) or hold off on that (in order to allow them a better chance of fighting off any Covid). And if that choice seems awful to make, either method can be riskier if you do it on merely a heavy assumption that suspected-Covid is/isn't real-Covid. So you make damn sure you know (while ideally holding off the chemo for a few days at most) before making the decision to continue/discontinue/replace the treatment.
Or so my reading of it is, without knowing Greiger's Mum's precise situation (which I sincerely hope will improve, to the absolute limit to which my best wishes could ever influence this scenario) and making some huge assumptions of my own...
Post by: misko27 on September 22, 2020, 04:05:33 pm
I'll admit I was convinced the shift down came primarily from the administration getting their hands on the data, so imagine my alarm when it starts going up again anyway. The drop had not even brought us back down to the level of the first peak in April/May, and it spikes again.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 22, 2020, 05:18:47 pm
If the chemo is for (or incidentally harms) the immune system, then perhaps the risk must be weighed up between continuing to immuno-compromise the patient (in an effort to keep on treating for the original condition) or hold off on that (in order to allow them a better chance of fighting off any Covid). And if that choice seems awful to make, either method can be riskier if you do it on merely a heavy assumption that suspected-Covid is/isn't real-Covid. So you make damn sure you know (while ideally holding off the chemo for a few days at most) before making the decision to continue/discontinue/replace the treatment.
It´s not an awful choice, it´s a very common no-brainer. I use *a lot* of chemo. In most scenarios I´d not treat someone with any moderatedly serious active infections. But we´re talking about a potential contact at most here, not someone who´s symptomatic of anything.
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2020, 08:05:34 pm
If I hadn't been generally concerned about mother, I probably would have wished for Greiger to get well soon as well. As indeed I do, let me now say.
But as a definitely symptomatic-of-something contact (groceries-picker-uperer, at a minimum), the only 'good' news is that risk-group mom isn't showing any not-flu symptoms[1]. Not good enough for a health-critical decision, but room for optimism in this otherwise disinterested observer.
BTW, right now I've got a tricky problem to work out. Scottish policy is basically no visitors ("social visits") in private homes, but England allows bubbling of two households (of limited numbers). And I'm trying to work out how that applies to an extended car journey that I may be taking, with someone not of my household, in two weeks' time - planned before the relockdown - that actually crosses the English/Scottish border. If it was public transport, it'd be allowed (masked and in wider separated seating) and we were going to be doing it as a bubblish thing (going by stricter rules than then required to follow). OTOH, we're "outdoors", technically (too early to tell if we can keep the windows open) and not facing each other so could perhaps have worked with the 1+m distancing. We should be safer (combined) than any other form of travel other than actual cycling from place to place, but "the rules" look like they need a bit of flexing to squeeze into.
Could just declare ourselves a 'travelling' household, for the duration. (Not too much of a problem to requarantine ourselves seperately at journey's end, even if one home nation puts the other home nation on its "dangerous point-of-origin" list. So long as they don't re-erect Hadrian's or Antonine walls to prevent all movement.). But two weeks is a long time, potentially, and plans may well change without my needing to actively worry about these things.
[1] Over-a-week since presumed infection, two days since became ill. Therefore five+ days to get laid low by the whateverness. If it's jumped again, it could have done two, three, four days ago, assuming constant/daily contact, so I'd stick my neck to say it either hasn't happened or it did and actually got nowhere for whatever reason. But far too many guesses in there, so don't take this as a medical opinion (IANADoctor!), this was just how I first worked it out in my head.
Post by: hector13 on September 22, 2020, 09:01:36 pm
Worst case, it says she advises against car travel with mixed households, so you should be alright if you’re not planning on visiting private homes, though you’re allowed in private gardens up to 6 people from two different households, so one of you will have to stay in the car if you do that.
Post by: Iduno on September 22, 2020, 09:57:44 pm
And an analogy I used the other day (which was quicker to explain in the context of that moment) about lockdowns was like being in a car going down a steep hill. You suddenly notice sheep on and by the road ahead, slam on the brakes (jolting the passengers, things fly off the parcel-shelf; basically disruptive to all concerned) before realising they're actually further off than you realised (any that you did avoid hitting are just part of a larger flock). So you ease off on the brakes (you're still on the hill, so you're naturally speeding up), and someone in the back seat is complaining about the lost time so you might even step heavier on the gas. But there are still sheep on the road and you're still heading towards them, and you're now back to recklessly anti-ovine speeds again. Anyone complaining that putting the brakes in the first time just did more harm than good isn't honestly thinking through what would have happened if there were no brakes at all, etc.
You can also compare countries who willingly followed the rules to those who did not. Areas that tried to avoid getting sick were able to get back on track in a few months. Areas that did not try are having economic problems in 6 months, with no end in sight. And with current vaccines being notably less than 100% (I've seen as low as 50%) effective, may never recover.
Speaking of not recovering, I know 2 people who are still sick 4-5 months after they no longer show symptoms. One has been tested and no longer has enough antibodies to get a positive on an antibody test. Both were in great shape (exercise an hour or more per day) and early 40s, and can't manage a normal amount of exertion anymore.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 22, 2020, 11:03:05 pm
"Basically bedridden, sick with 'flu', only it's not flu." sounds symptomatic, whatever it is, and we don't yet know it's not what this thread is all about.That's Greiger, not his mother.
I'd do my best not to delay a contact, I'd probably do a pcr beforehamd though.
Post by: Starver on September 23, 2020, 05:28:25 am
Ok, it seems I misread your "(having) a potential contact at most here, not someone who´s symptomatic of anything" as being Greiger (who, by direct association, complicates his mother's situation), whereas you meant his mother, re: G."Basically bedridden, sick with 'flu', only it's not flu." sounds symptomatic, whatever it is, and we don't yet know it's not what this thread is all about.That's Greiger, not his mother.
I'd do my best not to delay a contact, I'd probably do a pcr beforehamd though.
From the limited information, I was explaining the hyperprecautionary nature of the roadblock.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on September 23, 2020, 07:57:20 am
Hopefully it will make the department's tighten measures again. Loosening measures because it's finally doing better is nonsensical and I'm 100% they know this but are pressured by politicians and interest groups.
Maybe we'll even get an endorsement of masks for people who feel well.
Post by: Starver on September 23, 2020, 10:16:57 am
And with all the conversations about face-coverings sending jets of deadly, deadly breath around the edges and to a potentially greater distance, those plastic valves probably do a lot to project an (unknowingly?) infective person's breath out there in a long-lobe of its own.
Still, if you spot them, generally on one side of the face-cup, you can move to be more on the other-side. ;)
Post by: hector13 on September 23, 2020, 01:31:03 pm
I notice an increasing number of people failing to understand respiration in general by wearing a mask below their nose.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 23, 2020, 01:55:42 pm
I suspect the valved ones while filtering less than a valveless ffp probably do stop a lot of crap going out.
Post by: Jopax on September 23, 2020, 02:06:12 pm
Yeah they filter air on the way in, but not the way out.
I notice an increasing number of people failing to understand respiration in general by wearing a mask below their nose.
On the plus side, calling someone a literal mouth breather has never been accurate on so many accounts before.
Post by: Starver on September 23, 2020, 02:45:22 pm
I kind of question that they don't prevent spread at all, the valve ones, I mean. If you think about it, its not like surgical masks are airtight.Aye, hence the mention of side-leaks in the 'surgical' style (and also why the "recycled CO2" crowd are as wrong as the "zomething the size of a virus floats freely through cloth anyway" ones; paradoxically, seeming to be the exact same anti-mask types).
Quote
I suspect the valved ones while filtering less than a valveless ffp probably do stop a lot of crap going out.But if moulded better to cup the face and the valve is meant to specifically unimpede exhalation, it'd be more of a geyser of breath than a general upwelling of water in a hot spring. As it were.
But mostly it subverts the "help others" philosophy of a face-nappy(/diaper). Intentionally or otherwise.
I've stopped mentioning to people "it looks like your mask has slipped, I can see your nose". The most polite reply I get tends to be something about it being too loose round the ears and always slipping.
Myself, with a limited beard[1], I know there's routes my breath can go around my mask (possibly inwards too), though with a certain follicular-filtering. Probably better than if I were clean-shaven, with plenty of surface for any organically contaminated vapour to adhere to as the air flows past.
[1] Occasionally sculptured, but not specifically to the 'maskprint' like a facial bikini-wax. Just in the manner as I always had done, beforehand, when the non-beard stubble starts to look a little too much like just more beard.
Post by: Greiger on September 23, 2020, 02:56:16 pm
Mom's still doing fine, I'm wearing my mask around the house and she puts on hers whenever I come out into the rest of the house. She has a minor cough but she does normally so we're not sure if that's anything new.
I'll keep y'all posted!
Post by: McTraveller on September 23, 2020, 03:41:43 pm
Thanks for the concern folks been getting lots of sleep. No test results yet, symptoms evolved a bit, no longer super sleepy at all times and instead have a persistent cough. Fever is down. Most food is tasteless except water which tastes like either pure chlorine if from the tap or liquid plastic if from a bottle. Limbs always feel like I've just sprinted 2 miles.Best wishes for your family... and keep watching the timing. When my parents were exposed, they were about 10 days from exposure to symptoms, and about 12 days to really feeling ill. That pesky long incubation period.
Mom's still doing fine, I'm wearing my mask around the house and she puts on hers whenever I come out into the rest of the house. She has a minor cough but she does normally so we're not sure if that's anything new.
I'll keep y'all posted!
On the positive side: from that same exposure, 2 other family members had zero symptoms. So contact alone is necessary, but not sufficient, for disease.
Post by: delphonso on September 23, 2020, 09:02:46 pm
Oh, and the Republicans say that this behavior means the schools/Dems don't care about children at all.
Post by: nenjin on September 23, 2020, 10:43:09 pm
Post by: misko27 on September 24, 2020, 01:34:32 pm
They are fine with attacking the root of the disease (restrictions) to avoid symptoms (all the negative impacts of restrictions); but prefer to deal with the symptoms of unrestricted COVID spread (people fucking dying) to dealing with the disease (preventing people from spreading it). Which comes down to saying "I prefer people die than I am bothered by things."
Thanks for the concern folks been getting lots of sleep. No test results yet, symptoms evolved a bit, no longer super sleepy at all times and instead have a persistent cough. Fever is down. Most food is tasteless except water which tastes like either pure chlorine if from the tap or liquid plastic if from a bottle. Limbs always feel like I've just sprinted 2 miles.Oh boy, Grieger. Hope it works out ok.
Mom's still doing fine, I'm wearing my mask around the house and she puts on hers whenever I come out into the rest of the house. She has a minor cough but she does normally so we're not sure if that's anything new.
I'll keep y'all posted!
Post by: scriver on September 24, 2020, 03:46:01 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 24, 2020, 04:04:40 pm
Post by: scriver on September 24, 2020, 04:08:40 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 24, 2020, 04:48:15 pm
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/23/sweden-shifts-no-lockdown-strategy/
Post by: scriver on September 25, 2020, 12:43:14 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 25, 2020, 01:11:12 pm
Post by: Greiger on September 25, 2020, 04:02:43 pm
Annoying news my internet and phone have been down for 'scheduled maintenance' for a full day. They didn't bother to notify me, when contacted through a cell phone because phone didn't work, they said it had been planned for more than a month and was normal. I asked why they didn't notify us about it and the person on the phone apparently realizing they can't do anything and wanting to get off the phone did a bethesda 'Sorry, not planning on doing anything about it, check the website for scheduled outage times and dates. Your service will be back by 2 AM tomorrow'.
Anyway covid test came back negative yesterday but since I had no phone they couldn't tell me. Donno what that illness was then, not a Flu, not Covid, too high a fever to be a cold. Who knows.
Post by: Starver on September 25, 2020, 07:06:10 pm
Post by: Greiger on September 25, 2020, 08:17:10 pm
This one causes you to spray highly contagious liquids from every orifice of your body (including sweat glands) at 30 meters a second every time you say the words 'freedom', 'rights', 'amendment', or 'free speech' and if you are over the age of 40 you have a small but ever present chance of just popping like a shieldbroken Jiggilypuff and sailing into the ionosphere when you blink.
E: I'm sure it will evolve to be triggered on whatever buzzwords your particular country's anti maskers like to use as well.
Post by: Egan_BW on September 25, 2020, 08:40:51 pm
if you are over the age of 40 you have a small but ever present chance of just popping like a shieldbroken Jiggilypuff and sailing into the ionosphere when you blink.
team boomer is blasting off again?
Post by: hector13 on September 25, 2020, 11:43:22 pm
They should manage it, and that might push the average proportion of tests that come back positive above 1 in 6 too!
Turning that corner real good, Donald. Reeeaal good.
Post by: wierd on September 25, 2020, 11:52:55 pm
How could you expect a sleezy person in office to pass up an opportunity like that!? I mean-- with fewer democrats voting, his re-election is a shoe-in!! (right!? RIGHT!?)
/s
Post by: delphonso on September 26, 2020, 12:35:47 am
All because the Libs are too scared of the flu SMH
/s
Post by: Starver on September 26, 2020, 06:44:38 am
Except that it won't work on all the devices that the old (cancelled) App worked on, it isn't as accurate at proximity-tagging as the old one, there are still many issues with booking an appointment for testing and if you tell it you have symptoms but later get an official negative test result from outside the app there's no way to tell it that and abort the isolation period timer...
Still, four million downloads and counting!
Post by: martinuzz on September 26, 2020, 08:10:21 am
Swollen and deformed cells. Sticky pellets and weblike structures of defense proteins. Tissues full of activated immune cells that died fighting..
Amsterdam researchers "were completely baffled by what they saw", when studying the brains of 21 deceased corona patients under a microscope.
The virus appears to not only cause extensive damage to the lungs, but also to the brains.
Admittedly, all patients that Paul van de Valk and his fellow researchers at the Amsterdam UMC studied had died from the corona virus.
"We don't know if we would find the same damage in patients that became less ill from the virus", says van der Valk.
But what the study does show, is that corona is much more than just a respiratory disease.
"It can almost be called a systemic disease", says van der Valk. "Just about every organ in the body is affected".
The researcher did not find many virus particles in the deceased patients. In fact, they found none at all in the brains.
They did, however, find extensive inflammation damage. In the lungs, obviously. But also in the liver, the kidneys, the heart and the brains.
In nearly all patients they found extensive damage to the olfactory nerve. This would explain the remarkable loss of smell and taste in many patients.
Striking is also the damage to a part of the brain, high in the neck, that is responisble, amongst other things, for the automatic reflex of breathing.
"We know that many patients keep walking around with too little oxygen in the blood, until they acutely get very stuffy", says van der Valk.
"it is tempting to correlate this with a damaged respiratory center in the brain".
The damage is practically everywhere. "The cerebellum, the cerebrum, everywhere we looked we found inflammatory damages", says the pathologist.
"We were baffled and impressed by the brainf deformations we found". For example, the team found tight clusters of 'microglial cells' everywhere, the team writes in an article in the Lancet Microbe. Those are antennas that regulate the immune response.
"They are super-activated, almost out of control. In all likelyhood they made a futile last effort to stop the immune response".
The brain has it's own private immune system, that usually is tuned to very low activity, to prevent the immune system in the brain to become agitated too fast and cause damage.
Yet apparently, corona virus manages to affect and deregulate even this delicate secluded part of the immune system.
"The immunological clinical picture we see here is very rare", the researchers say. "Yet, with Covid, we see it in nearly all patients"
This could explain the so-called 'long Covid', the phenomenon where patients that often weren't even that ill from corona report that they suffer from amnesia, headaches, extreme fatigue, and 'brain mist' for months after having recovered from the disease.
"We don't have any conclusive evidence yet, but it is quite possible that 'long covid' is caused by this", says van der Valk.
Other studies already pointed at a striking correlation between long covid and a disturbed autonomic nervous system: patients often suffer from heart rythm disturbance and breathing disorders.
"More and more, it is starting to look like that this coronavirus mostly targets the innate immune response system, the body's frontline defense system, and makes it go haywire", says internist-immunologist Pieter van Paassen (UMC Maastricht) when asked.
"That is an important new idea, and their study supports that".
Van Paassen recently conducted a studies of 228 corona patients (https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.120.050656).
In the worst cases he observed immune cells called neutrophiles cast a web when viewed under a microscope, exactly the same as what van der Valk's team observed in their study.
"Those cells are trying to catch the virus in their webs, but while doing that they also activate the coagulation route, which likely is the reason for the extreme blood clotting we observe in patients", says van Paassen.
"The big question is, how long does this clinical picture last", says van der Valk.
He recounts horrible stories from people that are left disabled for months.
"This could imply that, once triggered, the immune response does not know how to stop".
On the other hand, the immunological clinical picture observed has many similarities with the paralysis disease Guillain-Barré."And that disease's clinical picture does end eventually. So there is still good hope that these effects from corona are also not going to last forever", says van der Valk.
The researchers are very curious to see what effects dexamethason, which is now a standard medicine used on corona patients in hospitals to reduce inflammatory damages, will have. Patients are now also always treated with anti-coagulents, to prevent blood clotting.
The new finds show that this new corona virus strikes surprisingly different than other respiratory virusses, like flu and the common cold."This is some kind of hit-and-run virus", says van der Valk. "It visits briefly, causes major damage, and then leaves the body again, leaving some patients with many additional problems caused by hyperreaction of their immune system".
Translated from https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/coronavirus-veroorzaakt-chaos-in-de-hersenen~bac7630e/
Post by: wierd on September 26, 2020, 08:26:45 am
Seriously, JUST WEAR YOUR GODDAMN MASKS, AND AVOID SOCIAL CONTACT.
That is, unless you just RELISH the notion of:
Brain damage
Permanent lung damage
Multiple organ damage from inflammation responses
all because you just could not fucking live without going to the goddamn club (https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2020/09/24/coronavirus-desantis-wants-no-limits-restaurant-hours-number-customers/3515731001/).
This is not a little flu. Stay the fuck home.
Somebody's financial statement is not worth the quality of the remainder of your goddamn life. Neither is the few hours of pleasure such a risky undertaking gives you.
Somebody needs to horse-whip DeSantis and Co with a motherfucking clue bat.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 26, 2020, 08:45:59 am
Quote
Swollen and deformed cells. Sticky pellets and weblike structures of defense proteins. Tissues full of activated immune cells that died fighting..
Amsterdam researchers "were completely baffled by what they saw", when studying the brains of 21 deceased corona patients under a microscope.
The virus appears to not only cause extensive damage to the lungs, but also to the brains.
The obvious counterpoint is that it's far from clear this is extrapolable to milder cases, let alone asymptomatic. I'd add that it'd be interesting to compare those brains they autopsied with people who died in icu of other causes (in particular infectious causes). It might be that they're seeing the consequences of DIC in serious infections rather than covid in particular. There's been a lot of that with these case reports. A few months ago I saw some haem guy on twitter become enthusiastic about "covidcytes" in peripheral blood... which to me looked remarkably like reactive lymphocytes of the sort you see in pretty much all viral infections.
Though tbh I think noone should want to gamble with getting covid given how significant the risk is for something nasty long term happening.
Post by: wierd on September 26, 2020, 08:51:39 am
People (By and large) have a hard time accepting what a risk to their own personage entails-- In the US at least, the popular culture tends to be "He-man" like about such things. "Oh, I can handle getting a little flu!" et al.
The issue is that they do not consider how their he-man bullshit is exposing hundreds or thousands of people to social contact exposure, and killing people.
You save other people's lives, by staying away from the goddamn clubs, and avoiding social gatherings.
You don't do it for yourself; If you were doing things for yourself, you would go to the goddamn parties, clubs, and bars-- and get lit off your ass, because "Fuck those other people." No, you stay home to protect *other people*. You wear the mask to protect *OTHER PEOPLE*.
And of course, QED--- Americans are out whooping it up at bars like there isn't a major disease epidemic. SMDH
Post by: hector13 on September 26, 2020, 03:06:19 pm
It was done, and in bombastic style. 2800 positive tests in one day, a new record, pushes the average number of daily positives from the last week to over 2k, and with another record 23% of tests recording positives too!
Fantastico.
I also found out the store I work at is doing Black Friday, though with the vague “not as we normally do” proviso. Hopefully that doesn’t mean BF but now with social distancing because that is not going to work.
Post by: Eschar on September 29, 2020, 01:20:36 pm
I would say the missing feature is the lack of concern for OTHER people.
People (By and large) have a hard time accepting what a risk to their own personage entails-- In the US at least, the popular culture tends to be "He-man" like about such things. "Oh, I can handle getting a little flu!" et al.
The issue is that they do not consider how their he-man bullshit is exposing hundreds or thousands of people to social contact exposure, and killing people.
You save other people's lives, by staying away from the goddamn clubs, and avoiding social gatherings.
You don't do it for yourself; If you were doing things for yourself, you would go to the goddamn parties, clubs, and bars-- and get lit off your ass, because "Fuck those other people." No, you stay home to protect *other people*. You wear the mask to protect *OTHER PEOPLE*.
And of course, QED--- Americans are out whooping it up at bars like there isn't a major disease epidemic. SMDH
"Screw you, I've got mine"
Post by: nenjin on September 29, 2020, 02:16:50 pm
Post by: delphonso on October 05, 2020, 10:08:23 am
Post by: Starver on October 05, 2020, 11:42:03 am
Then there's the small matter of thousands of positive tests not passed properly through our v2.0 contact-tracing app to initiate suitably prefautionary testing in everyone thus secondarily affected. But what quantities and stats and future cases that affects I couldn't hegin to say (just that it inevatably will).
Other than that, life seems to be 'normal' everywhere near me, apart from standard new-normal precautions. Though cinemas seem to have been made entirely unviable, as the only thing I might normally be expected to partake of that I will notably miss.
[1] Possibly. Arguably. Also arguable-against.
Post by: martinuzz on October 05, 2020, 05:24:27 pm
If accurate, this means that 760 million people have been infected with the virus, a number much higher than reported by official statistics of the WHO and the John Hopkins institute (USA), which put the confirmed number of cases at 35 million.
The WHO bases it's new estimate on the average of studies in various countries measuring anti-bodies.
The new estimate was announced today in a special session of the board of the WHO, in which leading figure of the WHO Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was first seen wearing a face-mask.
The WHO warns that the virus is gaining more and more ground, now that large parts of Europe and Eastern Asia are confronted with a second wave.
Meanwhile in the UK, nearly 16000 cases of Covid were 'missed'.
The UK government announced an investigation into the matter.
It is blamed on an Excel spreadsheet used in contact tracement.
Because the program couldn't handle the large numbers, the positive test results of 15841 infected Brits were lost.
The patients themselves did get notified they tested positive, however, due to loss of data, their 50000 contacts were not informed, possibly aiding the spread of the virus.
Post by: Frumple on October 05, 2020, 08:32:11 pm
Post by: hector13 on October 05, 2020, 08:33:43 pm
Post by: Sirus on October 05, 2020, 08:36:11 pm
ETA: source (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54423988)
Post by: hector13 on October 05, 2020, 08:38:29 pm
Post by: misko27 on October 05, 2020, 09:52:48 pm
This has happened to two people I know who had COVID. One was delusional to the point that he imagined he was on a diving board over a lake of fire. He dived off his hospital bed face-first and broke his neck. He survived, but he spent a hell of a lot longer in the hospital as a result (and also was physically restrained). Another was a friend of my mothers, a woman who was young enough to not be in any age-related risk factors, very good health, lifetime runner, etc; who has been dealing with fits of fogginess and confusion ever since. It'll seem to get better for a while, it'll seem like she can live her old lifestyle, and then she'll be unable to drive without forgetting where she's going (this woman is a PhD, mind).
Post by: Eric Blank on October 05, 2020, 10:10:47 pm
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 06, 2020, 12:09:54 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 06, 2020, 12:22:43 am
Post by: delphonso on October 06, 2020, 12:33:37 am
Post by: martinuzz on October 06, 2020, 02:48:07 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 06, 2020, 03:34:47 am
Post by: martinuzz on October 06, 2020, 04:11:04 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 06, 2020, 04:21:34 am
That's gonna be hard if they suffer from dizzyness and loss of coordination. Better to send the meat factories to themI dont see it as a big deal. They can always be brought in on stretchers.
Post by: Starver on October 06, 2020, 05:36:31 am
From what I hear (unless this was a different incident altogether) the spreadsheet was not in Excel but in some older file format that can "only" handle about 65k rows of data. Apparently no one realized this until recently, which means that anything beyond the first 65k entries or so basically didn't get saved.I'm a big fan of Excel (or, rather .XLS(notX) from Libre/OpenOffice) for far more things than I should be using it for... But you'd have thought they'd have been using an actual databasing application in this case. Maybe SAS, which I know is entirely suitable for the purpose, though there are other ones that can be clinically(/financially/etc) certifiable for such critical uses.
ETA: source (https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-54423988)
On top of that, it is triviality itself to sanity-check with a 'compilation totals' record that immediately alert you to discrepancies. Sloppy, very sloppy.
Post by: King Zultan on October 06, 2020, 01:30:24 pm
We could send them all to the meat factoriesSoylent green is people!
Post by: Rockeater on October 06, 2020, 01:35:11 pm
And low quality in that.We could send them all to the meat factoriesSoylent green is people!
Post by: wierd on October 06, 2020, 01:39:35 pm
Once the glut of supply runs out, they will complain mightily about the increasing costs of Soylent Worker.
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 06, 2020, 01:47:38 pm
Just need to start up my new chain restaurant: Mcpeople's!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 06, 2020, 02:21:26 pm
IMO It is every citizen's final duty to go into the factories, and become one with all the people
Post by: martinuzz on October 06, 2020, 03:55:45 pm
Post by: scriver on October 06, 2020, 05:48:12 pm
Oh FFS stop putting words in my mouth, they are NOT workers, they are invalids!
IMO It is every citizen's final duty to go into the factories, and become one with all the people
As Our Lord Jesus Christ the Meatssiah before us
Post by: Bumber on October 12, 2020, 08:37:17 pm
Quote from: https://pandemic.internationalsos.com/reports/who-official-states-lockdown-policies-not-helpful-to-public-health-oct-11-2020
The World Health Organization's special envoy on COVID-19 Dr. David Nabarro in an interview stated lockdowns are not helpful as the primary means to control COVID-19. He advocated a middle path which means holding the virus at bay whilst keeping economy and social life going. It would require "high level of organisation by governments and remarkable degree of engagement of people" with robust infectious disease control services or public health. He emphasised on combining of several measures such as "physical distancing, face protection, hygiene, isolating the ill and protecting the vulnerable" as an effective method. See the complete interview (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8oH7cBxgwE&feature=youtu.be&t=915) here on YouTube.
Post by: Bumber on October 12, 2020, 08:54:49 pm
Who is internationalsos, anyways?
Looks like they're a medical and travel security services firm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_SOS). Only other sources I could find commenting on the interview were right-wing ones.
Post by: misko27 on October 13, 2020, 02:14:11 am
Post by: scriver on October 13, 2020, 02:52:25 am
Yeah, letting people back into the univerisites was a mistake, basically.
Post by: feelotraveller on October 13, 2020, 03:59:48 am
Post by: Reelya on October 13, 2020, 02:24:32 pm
Who is internationalsos, anyways?
Looks like they're a medical and travel security services firm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_SOS). Only other sources I could find commenting on the interview were right-wing ones.
International SOS look like a corporate consulting firm who promise to guide you on protecting your workers from the virus. I can't help but think that the virus running loose would drum up more business in their direction.
Post by: Zangi on October 13, 2020, 04:13:36 pm
Like debt relief companies and cleaning services.
Post by: MorleyDev on October 14, 2020, 10:25:12 am
Doing it on a repeating schedule lets people, businesses and state budget and plan for it rather than the current uncertainty around the if/when.
Economic damage is temporary and fixable even if it takes years, debilitating illness lasts a lifetime, death is permanent and lasts forever.
Post by: Starver on October 14, 2020, 11:16:21 am
(UK politics is 'fun'. Even excluding the thing about devolved regions, when the national Opposition declines to utterly support the government in seemingly arbitrary lical lockdowns t(hat it can't even agree within itself about) it is accused of not being helpful, and when they suggest that the government go with the actual scientific recommendation of the circuit-breaking they're told not to be silly.)
Post by: TD1 on October 14, 2020, 02:17:26 pm
Ironically, that shared trip across the Scottish border I mentioned a week or so ago... It was postponed for unrelated reasons. The person prompting the journey 'plans' it to happen next week, but that was before the whole L2/L3 lockdown announcementshttps://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-northern-ireland-set-to-impose-circuit-breaker-lockdown-for-four-weeks-12103640yesterdayMonday, with one end-point now in an L2 area, which recomplicates everything on the English side!
(UK politics is 'fun'. Even excluding the thing about devolved regions, when the national Opposition declines to utterly support the government in seemingly arbitrary lical lockdowns t(hat it can't even agree within itself about) it is accused of not being helpful, and when they suggest that the government go with the actual scientific recommendation of the circuit-breaking they're told not to be silly.)
Post by: Starver on October 14, 2020, 02:24:56 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 14, 2020, 02:31:17 pm
Post by: nenjin on October 14, 2020, 02:58:31 pm
Post by: TD1 on October 14, 2020, 03:15:57 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 14, 2020, 03:53:34 pm
Not that I´m in either county mind you.
I think Cork and Limerick will precede Galway in restrictions. TBH Galway itself isn´t even that big. Pop density is overall very low, I think except for Dublin a good chunk of the population of each county live in small hamlets and only go to the (smallish) cities to go to the mall.
In all honesty I think Ireland has been spared the bluntness of covid elsewhere in Europe mostly thanks to this low population density, plus relative geographical isolation. Otherwise I´d say the HSE has got less resources than other healthcare systems to cope with big waves. It´s pushed to the brink every winter with the flu. I know many people in the hospital are worried. I think that´s why the NPHET guy wanted level 5 off the bat: covid hospital admissions come with a delay of 2-3 weeks so you have to anticipate, plus there are not enough ICU beds to cope with a big wave (That´s the objetctive truth. There are only around 240ish ICU beds in the ROI, and I dont know to what extent it´s possible to expand them like other countries did, given the scarcity of healthcare personnel)
BTW picture from a couple of weeks ago. As it turns out my NOte10+ CAN do long exposures. And the low urbanization means light contamination is low
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Do you actually get auroras in the north? I mean to photography that sometime.
Post by: hector13 on October 14, 2020, 09:55:18 pm
Apparently the loss of taste/smell is a super common symptom though.
Hopefully all is good though, I don’t think anyone needs the extra worry.
Post by: Starver on October 15, 2020, 05:54:06 am
Looks nice, for the fraction of a second before it crashes my browser (4096x4096, I see, from the img--tagged URL, though I've had so many other problems with the newsest Firefix for Android that I don't think that's the only issue - and if it shows at all it shouldn't then quit, Shirley?).Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Quote
Do you actually get auroras in the north? I mean to photography that sometime.Borealis? It is not unknown, for the whole of the British Isles, but being more northerly is naturally a bonus to your chances. I think we're currently in a solar-lull, though (or is that just sunspots?) so I'd not be expecting anything spectacular visible for southern Eire anytime soon. Though, with 2020 being 2020, I wouldn't discount an inconveniently polarised Coronal Mass Ejection coming directly our way before Christmas, so stock up on batteries...
Post by: TD1 on October 15, 2020, 11:41:21 am
Do you actually get auroras in the north? I mean to photography that sometime.Yes, but very rarely. You'd need to go to Antrim and then make a wish on a shooting star.
Post by: Starver on October 16, 2020, 06:55:59 am
And, in home news, huge bits of the UK being L2 or even L3 (apparently Lancashire wangled non-restriction on gyms, simulataneous with a Liverpool gym being fined for not closing under their default L3 conditions - which makes this 'simple consistent approach' less a reality than advertised). Fun!
Post by: Reelya on October 16, 2020, 11:21:10 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on October 16, 2020, 03:32:01 pm
Post by: wierd on October 17, 2020, 01:32:47 am
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-pandemics-public-health-new-york-e321f4c9098b4db4dd6b1eda76a5179e
Really, this is just what is expected and normal when the playbook is HyperNormalized politics.
The BBC did a documentary on this several years ago. It's just as true today as then, and even more poignant now that there is a very prominent public health emergency.
The politicians of this century are brought up on the dogma that no matter what happens (NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS), they can spin it politically, and that this is "Identical to solving the problem", because the people won't question it. (or if they do, it wont matter.)
Seriously. Watch this. The whole 2 and a half hours. Then reflect on the Trump administration, Bolsanaro and Co in south america, and the entire "We wont actually do what needs to be done to solve this problem, and want to ignore it out of existence" that the entire western world is engaging in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh2cDKyFdyU
Watch it. Really.
Post by: martinuzz on October 17, 2020, 06:35:12 am
So, back to Earth for everyone, the WHO have declared remdesivir ineffective (Gilead is arguing against the robustness/incompleteness of the study, which sounds very much like a classic Sir Humphrey objection to me) to add to their prior objections over hydroxychloroquine.Over here in the Netherlands though, remdesivir has become standard treatment protocol, and does seem to lessen the severeness of the disease when administered in the early stages. Less people need to go to the ICU, and patients on average spend less time in hospital.
For more severe cases, dexamethason is used to suppress the immune system so it does less damage to the body, improving survival rates for ICU patients.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 17, 2020, 07:38:24 am
Quote
and does seem to lessen the severeness of the disease when administered in the early stages.Based on what? controlled trials so far sow little to no effect.
Post by: martinuzz on October 17, 2020, 09:24:54 am
Death rates are also lower.
Post by: Starver on October 17, 2020, 09:56:48 am
No, I'm not (for a long time now) even on mask-to-mask speaking terms with actual experts in medical trials, so these aren't anything like qualified objections, just passing thoughts based on very old info absorbed by memetic osmosis and still splashing around one of the many unused bits of by current brain... ;)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 17, 2020, 12:20:18 pm
Based on the percentage of hospital admissions needing to go to the ICU. It's significantly lower than in the first wave.Yeah, but that's true worldwide. There are many potential reasons for that.
Death rates are also lower.
- more testing capacity means more mild cases are detected
- a big chunk of the most vulnerable population groups already died during wave #1
- better hospital capacity, better know-how on complication management, better resource allocation (aka: what Starver said)
Meanwhile Remdemesvir has failed several randomized trials, and it didn't even do too well in the ones that were used by the fda as a basis for approval. I'm kind of skeptical of it as any sort of gamechanger drug. The British dexamethasone trial had far more meaningful results, for instance.
Post by: wierd on October 17, 2020, 01:32:07 pm
"Herd Immunity" is not supported by current documentation-- that is not really what I am suggesting here. More "Less naive immune response". That is by no means the same thing.
Compare: You have had the flu many times in your life. If you get exposed to the flu, you will get the flu, but your body knows how to deal with flu, because it has had it before many times. With some good OTC meds, you probably are not going to die from it. / You are a native pacific islander who has never encountered flu before, and some jackass breathed H1N1 all over you. You have a very high fever, are experiencing extreme dehydration from vomiting and diarrhea, are experiencing delirium, and quite possibly could in fact die from it.
In the former, you have "Less naive immune response", and in the latter, you have "Completely naive immune response."
1st wave infection was very much "Completely naive immune response". (While common cold is ubiquitous, AND a coronavirus, COVID-19 is a vastly different beast, and the majority of the population had never been exposed to a pathogen of that family before.)
Post by: Starver on October 17, 2020, 01:52:35 pm
That's not a direction to head, that's a destination. Either by braving the avalanche-prone precarious hillside dirt track of Catching Covid, where random rocks might roll down and knock a number of unlucky travellers off into the precipice waiting below, or waiting for them to build the new Vaccine route with bridges and tunnels designed to get everyone safely past all those obstacles to the Promised Land.
Post by: wierd on October 17, 2020, 01:59:29 pm
This means "Herd Immunity" is bullshit. The vaccine will work, but you will have to keep getting shot with it to have a strong reaction. That is the only way to make "herd immunity" work-- The majority of the population must be getting regular shots of the vaccine, so that their bodies are actively hostile to the virus, and thus depriving it of host vectors.
The PROBLEM, is that the virus is able to sustain itself in animal reservoir populations.
SO-- Herd immunity is bullshit.
Unless you want to shoot vaccine the rest of human existence.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 17, 2020, 02:14:26 pm
From what I have been reading, humans do not retain long lived sensitization/immune recognition from the virus, even with straight up "Was freaking actively infected with live virus". People who caught it in the first wave, are catching it a second time.
Well, tbh there are less than 10 cases documented worldwide AFAIK. I'd not jump into conclusions that fast.
That being said, we know that previos covid pandemics' immunity had a shelf life, and we know plenty of diseases which did not result in any form of herd immunity over history (though granted- not all outbreaks were equally bad). So I agree the "herd immunity apptoach" is bullshit
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 17, 2020, 02:24:37 pm
Post by: wierd on October 17, 2020, 02:33:49 pm
However, a combination of seasonal vaccination, and immune system acclimation to the pathogen, may result in the virus being significantly less lethal to the general population.
Only time will tell.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 17, 2020, 03:48:34 pm
Word is HCWs go first. I´m hoping we get something before christmas. :(
Post by: feelotraveller on October 17, 2020, 03:56:07 pm
I feelpessimisticoptimistic about it, so I said "Possibly 2-3 or maybe even 4 more years of covid ravaging society."
Fixed that for you.
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 17, 2020, 06:00:48 pm
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-pandemics-public-health-new-york-e321f4c9098b4db4dd6b1eda76a5179e
Really, this is just what is expected and normal when the playbook is HyperNormalized politics.
The BBC did a documentary on this several years ago. It's just as true today as then, and even more poignant now that there is a very prominent public health emergency.
The politicians of this century are brought up on the dogma that no matter what happens (NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS), they can spin it politically, and that this is "Identical to solving the problem", because the people won't question it. (or if they do, it wont matter.)
Seriously. Watch this. The whole 2 and a half hours. Then reflect on the Trump administration, Bolsanaro and Co in south america, and the entire "We wont actually do what needs to be done to solve this problem, and want to ignore it out of existence" that the entire western world is engaging in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh2cDKyFdyU
Watch it. Really.
I just got done watching this. AAA+ documentary, although I can't be certain of the voracity of everything stated, as it segues from one topic to the next quite often, and there's a lot of information to go through. I assume that you vouch for the accuracy of the piece though wierd.
I'd like to give a warning to anyone else thinking of watching this though, there's an awful lot of extremely graphic imagery. Lots of blood and mutilated dead bodies from real footage of bombings and violence. I had to pause the video halfway though cause I felt I was going to puke, I had to get up and go and do something else for a while to let my nerves settle.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 17, 2020, 06:05:03 pm
I had to pause the video halfway though cause I felt I was going to puke, I had to get up and go and do something else for a while to let my nerves settle.I've always found this kind of description fascinating. Can you describe what it feels like in more detail? It's something I've never experienced.
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 17, 2020, 06:26:04 pm
I had to pause the video halfway though cause I felt I was going to puke, I had to get up and go and do something else for a while to let my nerves settle.I've always found this kind of description fascinating. Can you describe what it feels like in more detail? It's something I've never experienced.
I suppose it's possible to view atrocious things dispassionately, merely absorbing the information as facts and nothing more. To me though, it's obvious that I was viewing human suffering that was real and recent and ongoing. My sense of empathy for these people was so strongly aroused that I can't help but imagine what it must feel like to be in so much misery and live in such a terrible and violent world. Seeing such pain, I can't help but adopt it as my own pain and want to help them, and knowing I can't, feel sickened.
Added to that, these people were all ultimately caught up in a tragic and bloody game devised by powerful people decades in the past, and that all the blood and death onscreen was avoidable; none of it technically had to happen. Throughout the entire documentary, I was trying to think "If I were in a position of real power, what could I do to assist the plight of the Arab peoples, who are trapped in a Gordian's Knot of conflict and revenge?" and I just don't know, and I don't think anyone knows. That's the idea behind the whole documentary though, to keep the possibility for real and beneficial change behind an infinite amount of obfuscation and confusion, so no one and nothing can challenge the current power structures, and nothing can change the status quo.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 17, 2020, 06:41:11 pm
I suppose it's possible to view atrocious things dispassionately, merely absorbing the information as facts and nothing more. To me though, it's obvious that I was viewing human suffering that was real and recent and ongoing. My sense of empathy for these people was so strongly aroused that I can't help but imagine what it must feel like to be in so much misery and live in such a terrible and violent world. Seeing such pain, I can't help but adopt it as my own pain and want to help them, and knowing I can't, feel sickened.Interesting. For comparison, I watched the video while eating and nothing I saw bothered me; I don't process these things the same way. The whole idea of involuntary feelings is deeply interesting to me.
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 17, 2020, 06:47:56 pm
Post by: wierd on October 17, 2020, 06:49:35 pm
I think the blunt imagery is apropos for the blunt message of the doc.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 17, 2020, 06:49:47 pm
I would imagine most feelings are involuntary. You can use psychological tricks to suppress or exaggerate feelings, but ultimately those feelings had to exist beforehand involuntarily.Nah, this is definitely not true for everyone. There's a bit of research on the subject, though not very much.
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 17, 2020, 07:00:10 pm
I think the blunt imagery is apropos for the blunt message of the doc.
I agree wierd, though it made me upset to see, the imagery alongside the information are two halves of one whole. The spoken monologue being the information, and the visual trauma being WHY you should care about the information. Normally I'd think that that is emotionally manipulative, but then I'd just be railing against the entirety of cinematography.
Post by: misko27 on October 17, 2020, 07:54:25 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Very concerned.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 17, 2020, 07:56:58 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on October 17, 2020, 08:04:50 pm
Post by: scriver on October 18, 2020, 07:27:20 am
We don't even keep a alcogel dispenser next to there any more.
...I should probably suggest we put one there.
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 18, 2020, 12:36:07 pm
Post by: Reelya on October 22, 2020, 03:56:00 pm
And the bit that ties this back to Covid more strongly is this: the criticism of Dan Andrews is that he failed to hermetically seal off hotels with interstate/foreign travelers, so the virus escaped this firewall, and then we had to go into full lockdown to stop the spread. Also, the guy said the virus was a storm in a teacup because he or I didn't know anyone with the virus.
A few things are contradictory in this analysis however. If the point is that Dan Andrews is going too far with hermetically sealing the state off, then the issue cannot logically be that his hermetic seal wasn't hardcore enough, thus the virus crept in. And of course, the reason most people don't know anyone with the virus is the exact same strict rules that were implemented.
What do they want? An alternative government who was both more diligent in hermetically isolating returning people gestapo-like yet somehow more lax with people going too and fro within the state, at the same time? That's not a coherent point of argument. It's playing a sort of hindsight game. You can't rationally lay into them by saying they should have gone full Gestapo at the hotels for returned visitors and at the same time say they should have slacked off controls on public gatherings. The virus was going to get in one way or another.
Maybe if they'd done it the way that those detractors are asking for: beef up security at interstate hotels yet allowing businesses to freely open at the same time, there would have been an outbreak from a different source, and the same detractors would be making the same complaints of not specifically predicting which things needed to be controlled to stop the virus getting in. And of course, since the next line of argument is "nobody has the virus! Fuck Dan Andrews" this proves the lie in the hotel quarantine complaint. If Andrews had actually succeeded in preventing the hotel outbreak then we'd still hate him for any restrictions at all, since there isn't any virus here.
So this is why I ignore the hate for Dan Andrews. Basically no matter what he did or what the outcome was, the same people would concoct the same criticisms. If he didn't stop the virus getting and let business' open, we'd call him a monster. If he enacted border restrictions and stopped the virus getting in, we'd call him a monster. If the border restrictions weren't 100% effective, and some virus slipped in and caused an outbreak, then we'd call him a monster whether or not he then put on restrictions on people in the state to halt further spread. It's basically the shell game of taking down a left-wing leader no matter what actually occurs.
---
The real story of why a very small number of cases escaping quarantine caused a large outbreak in the first place is that this is Melbourne, it's a fucking cold place and it was midwinter. Cold/flu virus spread a lot here. Sydney didn't have anywhere near as strict rules, yet they never had the level of virus breakout we did here. It's not because the local governments up in Sydney or Brisbane are super smart or did things any differently than we do: they have the exact same amount of bungling and bureaucracy as we do in Melbourne. Those places are just 1000 km farther north than we are, and considerably warmer. Melbourne's just a fucking cold and wet place in winter, perfect for virus spreading, so we had rules that were 10 times as strict as the more northerly parts of Australia, yet 10 times as much problem containing the virus spread at the same time. The problem is not that the government here was paradoxically both too lax and too strict at the same time, depending on which article you read.
Post by: feelotraveller on October 22, 2020, 04:47:05 pm
Politics for the vast majority of people this century (both from within politics and from the outside) is not for solving problems or discussing issues but about finding someone to blame. And that explains the converstation entirely. If it wasn't Andrews but, um, O'Brien (is it?) as leader then they'd be to blame - or alternatively assuming a partisan zealot then it would still be Andrews/O'Brien as the obstructionist opposition leader. On a more personal level your old guy wanted someone to blame since then they are absolved from being part of the problem (since they are against it/you).
In other news yesterday/today (22nd October) was again a world record in newly reported cases - 423 819 according to WHO figures. (Although the next couple of days may rewrite that yet again.) As the general trend is still a gradual increase in the number of new cases it appears that globally we have not yet reached the peak of the pandemic. Who knows (accidental bad pun ;) ) how much worse it will get before it starts to taper off?
Post by: Reelya on October 22, 2020, 05:00:01 pm
For example, the media could have focused on Jenny Mikakos, who is the actual health minister in the government and who resigned over the whole thing. She was actually the person with direct responsibility over the matter, not Andrews.
Yet most people have barely heard the name, while everyone has heard how Dan Andrews is to blame.
That's not an inevitable way to frame this story and not an accident: it's a deliberate framework set up by the media. They're doing "The buck stops here" but they get to decide where "here" is, and if it was a pro-business right wing leader, you'd be hearing all about the incompetent underling letting the side down and not about how Glorious Leader must take the fall for mistakes by anyone who works for him.
And the other side of that, is that their argument is that responsibility goes all the way to the top, so it had to be Dan Andrews. This isn't built into the story either, it's a deliberate framing decision. The hotel thing is about returning international visitors, why isn't that a federal government responsibility? If you know how the media works then let me tell you, if left-wing Julia Gillard was still the prime minister when this happened (instead of our current right-wing leader) and the state leader was a right-wing Liberal, then they'd frame the story as being a federal government failure and the state government as victims. That's how the shell game works at it's core.
So this is how they'd frame the same story differently depending on who's in power: Liberal State / Liberal Federal: blame the health minister or a public servant, limit the fallout. Labor State / Liberal Federal: blame leader of state labor party: "the buck stops here". Liberal State / Labor Federal: blame federal labor leader, he/she didn't provide needed leadership. Labor State / Labor Federal: they all suck, sack the lot of them.
Right now the response by the individual states is a shambles, but somehow according to the media that's not a federal government issue, it's up to the states to sort it out themselves. According to the media it isn't up to the federal government to do anything about the virus and anything that goes wrong isn't their fault. This is pure spin on party lines, and a Labor prime minister wouldn't be getting a free slide like Scott Morrison is.
So, nothing is ever a liberal party person's fault unless they can be proved to have personally done the thing themselves, and you can't reasonably blame anyone else, while everything is a labor party person's fault unless you can prove they weren't involved and they didn't take all humanly possible steps to prevent it. And even then we'll play down the Liberal wrong-doer by taking the most limited possible interpretation, demanding proof before passing judgment, while taking a "where there's smoke ..." stance for any labor party wrongdoing. For example the Liberal leader of NSW was recently revealed to have had a secret sexual relationship with a minister who was taking bribes/kickbacks related to developments, and there are police recordings of her apparently giving the nod about it. Mere weeks later, the story isn't headline news anymore. You can bet that if leftie Dan Andrews was within 1000 miles of a sex and bribery scandal we'd never hear the end of it. Even if he wasn't the one doing it: "What did you know about these other crooked people boinking, Andrews, and when did you know it?" Labor leaders are held to the standard of all-knowing commissars who clearly must have known the sex lives and corrupt dealings of literally everyone else in their party, while a Liberal leader can literally be fucking a criminal and claim they didn't know he was a crook, and the media just says "well that's fair enough, then, how could you have known?"
Post by: feelotraveller on October 22, 2020, 05:55:43 pm
Commercial media bias is a given. That's how the somewhat right of center conservative ABC ends up portrayed as a bunch of radical left-wing loonies.
Personally I blame the hairdressers for not realizing their status as essential workers and refusing to keep cutting Morrison's hair throughout the pandemic.*
[In other words be careful that the lady doth not protest too much.]
* And remember the bushfire holiday...
Post by: misko27 on October 22, 2020, 06:11:45 pm
But that said there are seven countries with over 100,000 cases in the last week (US, Brazil, UK, France, India, Russia, Argentina), with some reaching several times that (I believe both the US and India are +400,000). Granted that data was from a day or two ago, but it indicates the general state of things. Hadn't heard much about Argentina.
Post by: feelotraveller on October 22, 2020, 06:31:36 pm
(https://i.postimg.cc/wBh1ntZk/Screenshot-2020-10-23-10-26-49.png) (https://postimg.cc/1g3Rqz9g)
Post by: martinuzz on October 22, 2020, 06:32:21 pm
I should read less newspapers and game more
Post by: misko27 on October 22, 2020, 08:31:18 pm
Post by: scriver on October 23, 2020, 01:19:08 am
They also chose to remove the recommendations of isolation for elders, supposedly out of worry for their mental and physical health -- mental because of the effects of prolonged isolation and physical because they say a lot of elders have been choosing to not visit health care at all which of course means other issues accumulate under the radar. I'm split about how to act on this one.
It's still young people 20-35 or so that's doing the spreading here right now. I feel they ought to close down the universities again (ie go online) or something.
Post by: misko27 on October 23, 2020, 01:25:37 am
Edit: before I go to bed though, US hit 75,000 yesterday. Second time over 70000 in a week, highest numbers since July/August Peak. Up 32% from 2 weeks ago.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 23, 2020, 01:38:00 am
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 23, 2020, 01:38:38 am
Post by: DemonOfWrath on October 23, 2020, 01:54:01 am
The real story of why a very small number of cases escaping quarantine caused a large outbreak in the first place is that this is Melbourne, it's a fucking cold place and it was midwinter. Cold/flu virus spread a lot here. Sydney didn't have anywhere near as strict rules, yet they never had the level of virus breakout we did here. It's not because the local governments up in Sydney or Brisbane are super smart or did things any differently than we do: they have the exact same amount of bungling and bureaucracy as we do in Melbourne. Those places are just 1000 km farther north than we are, and considerably warmer. Melbourne's just a fucking cold and wet place in winter, perfect for virus spreading, so we had rules that were 10 times as strict as the more northerly parts of Australia, yet 10 times as much problem containing the virus spread at the same time. The problem is not that the government here was paradoxically both too lax and too strict at the same time, depending on which article you read.
As another person in Melbourne, there absolutely were reasons why we fared a lot worse than Sydney beyond weather (they had an outbreak around when our second one started). For instance our contact tracing system was pretty objectively worse than NSW, where they were calling out specific hot spots and places of infection months ago. That's been fixed as of about 2 weeks ago, but the government here didn't send people to learn from NSW's system until several months into our second wave. NSW for sure had better infrastructure in place to deal with it than Vic did.
Now a lot of the blame in the media is unfair (and the opposition can't do anything but scream "TEH ECONOMIES" so they're worse), but the government here should be chewed out badly for the parts where they were either lax or stupid.
Remember when we had the week or so of 1/4 of people testing positive not being at home quarantining and the entire time the response was "well, umm, I guess we'll send people to knock on their doors again?". They didn't have a clue how to deal with the idea some people weren't quarantining, and that was mind-boggling that they hadn't thought about that possibility well in advance (did nobody ever ask "what happens if people don't quarantine at home?" in a meeting?).
Post by: Starver on October 23, 2020, 08:25:03 am
England uses a 3-Tier system for Covid threat/lockdown purposes.
Scotland adds a Tier-0 (best "still no vaccine" level of local issuelessness) and Tier-4 (hard, hard lockdown needed in this area - stay shut up in your crannogs except for the most essential inter-clan raiding purposes).
/hears a sparse but proud rendition of Flower O' Scotland from the appropriate half of the socially-distanced crowd...
Post by: dragdeler on October 23, 2020, 01:08:55 pm
Post by: Zangi on October 23, 2020, 01:45:13 pm
Is a risk, but mental health has overall been very low on people’s ‘care about list’.
Post by: feelotraveller on October 23, 2020, 06:48:58 pm
All this to say - it is worse than it has ever been before (in terms of case numbers worldwide*) and is still increasing. Don't hold your breath for a peak anytime soon.
* Worldwide matters because it forms the total reservoir for the virus.
Post by: misko27 on October 23, 2020, 07:31:03 pm
Today was 79,000, eclipsing both.
Post by: hector13 on October 23, 2020, 07:58:54 pm
We're (possibly) in the second half of the Covid Cup semi-final and the score is Scotland 5, England 3.
England uses a 3-Tier system for Covid threat/lockdown purposes.
Scotland adds a Tier-0 (best "still no vaccine" level of local issuelessness) and Tier-4 (hard, hard lockdown needed in this area - stay shut up in your crannogs except for the most essential inter-clan raiding purposes).
/hears a sparse but proud rendition of Flower O' Scotland from the appropriate half of the socially-distanced crowd...
I’m a bit torn between this tiered system. Like, on the one hand, having different rules for different places is just going to make people confused over what they should be doing in different areas (if indeed they go between different areas) but on the other, assuming the rules for the different tiers are communicated clearly, it means people should be able to slide into the right mindset depending on the tier severity.
It could also be my perception of the leaders doing this. Boris is just all sorts of awful and doesn’t appear to actually know what the rules are, and has received some pushback from some areas that the government put into the most severe category, while I think Sturgeon is at least trying to do the right things, even if she makes some missteps and upsets people, like the entire hospitality industry in Scotland.
Post by: Starver on October 23, 2020, 10:29:21 pm
They were going to give access to the loos in the stadium, but they are in Wales, so they had to bring in portaloos.
(On Boris, he's actually not done what he's been doing with other things: "Both of us obviously need to compromise! So you must stop being obstructive and give us what we want." Instead, he's been negotiating exceptions and recompense with individual sub-regions, perhaps being more afraid of losing his recent Red-Wall Conservative seats. Which means things like gyms aren't staying opening in one area, are in another, then later on he placates the first area by allowing them, but with a whole muddle of other personalised conditions/funding mixed in. It generally doesn't affect the core Level-Limits on how many (including zero) can meet up in given locations from given household bubbles, but it doesn't help for "not meeting up, but merely a place multiple individuals might utilise facilities" like gyms, shops, restaurants, etc.)
Post by: misko27 on October 23, 2020, 10:51:52 pm
Post by: Frumple on October 23, 2020, 11:13:15 pm
Post by: wierd on October 23, 2020, 11:49:33 pm
People acted incredulous?
looks like I am on track to being right. Winning sucks.
Post by: Frumple on October 24, 2020, 01:21:09 am
Post by: misko27 on October 24, 2020, 02:02:29 am
But it's not real until you see it visually, so here it is:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: wierd on October 24, 2020, 02:15:10 am
Wait, when did that happen? 3 million eventual dead has been the back of napkin "duh" body count for the ~1% fatality rate and 100% infection stateside since... however manyyearsmonths ago it was people figured out that's somewhere around the point the fatality rate is. There's not incredulity to be found with that guess, just the crushing weight of exactly what failure will look like of our country doesn't stop fucking this up.
I think it was in feb, in Ameripol
Post by: delphonso on October 24, 2020, 02:24:09 am
Wait, when did that happen? 3 million eventual dead has been the back of napkin "duh" body count for the ~1% fatality rate and 100% infection stateside since... however manyyearsmonths ago it was people figured out that's somewhere around the point the fatality rate is. There's not incredulity to be found with that guess, just the crushing weight of exactly what failure will look like of our country doesn't stop fucking this up.
I think it was in feb, in Ameripol
Also maybe here, by me. Wish you were wrong, wierd. <3
Post by: Eric Blank on October 24, 2020, 02:32:23 am
And we have to wear the damn N95 masks now plus a face shield. Can't wear my glasses because they fog up under the face shield, blind if I do blind if I don't. Can't breathe hard through the mask, it's just too thick/tight, making it tough to wash dishes. Supervisor was saying last time they had to wear them a couple of the CNAs fainted because they weren't getting enough air.
Post by: scriver on October 24, 2020, 05:15:07 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 24, 2020, 05:22:56 am
Try the shaving foam on glasses thing? I don't know any actual specifics of it I've just heard it mentioned. I presume you don't put foam on the entire glass.
(https://magarticles.magzter.com/articles/11691/191680/584167c74781a/With-no-whipped-cream-available-we-ended-up-usingmentholated-shaving-foamOh-does-that-sting-the-eyes.jpg)
Post by: martinuzz on October 24, 2020, 05:27:10 am
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 27, 2020, 09:55:31 am
Anyways, new data (https://www.politico.eu/article/study-finds-sharp-fall-in-immunity-three-months-after-coronavirus-infection/) showing potential significant drop off in antibody presence over just a few months. It's possible this one is just statistical variance, though.
Post by: McTraveller on October 27, 2020, 10:15:40 am
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 27, 2020, 10:41:37 am
See, e.g., Figure 4 in this journal article (https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.2006601).
Edit: This article may be describing what you say, to be honest; would appreciate somebody more familiar with the topic to take a look.
Post by: RedKing on October 27, 2020, 10:51:33 am
Post by: feelotraveller on October 27, 2020, 09:15:52 pm
Another juicy fact is that usually only about 15% of viral vaccination trials are successful. But once again although coming from the 'experts' these are very much back of the napkin calculations (with regard to covid-19). Basically we won't know until much further down the track.
Post by: RedKing on October 28, 2020, 08:55:20 am
Post by: Magistrum on October 29, 2020, 10:35:51 am
Post by: Max™ on October 29, 2020, 10:07:56 pm
Just because there are three crests that doesn't mean the wave actually ended until we hit a trough lower than we were before said crests.
Lingering around the 1k/day death mark and it's just about to start into proper winter too.
Post by: misko27 on October 30, 2020, 09:51:20 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 30, 2020, 09:58:43 am
I'd anticipate both slower reporting and an escalation in the death toll if this is the case - rural depression town boomers will not endure the virus or go to the hospital even if they want to.
Post by: hector13 on October 30, 2020, 10:13:25 am
Cough.
Post by: hector13 on October 30, 2020, 10:29:35 am
Maybe they’re using the time to brainstorm their response?
Post by: Starver on October 30, 2020, 11:28:49 am
It's very strange how the centers of the infection have shifted. Earlier in the year, you had reports a plenty about how covid was passing over rural counties and was a "city killer". Now it seems to be nearly the opposite.Not really very strange. Places initially hit big (and naively, by the first shock arrival while people still travelled and we didn't know what was to come) now are better at mitigating - and, it must be said, the pool of the most vulnerable isn't vulnerable any more, one way or another. Complacency/reactionism in the other areas from not being so obviously impacted has become a ripe environment now that they are in the middle of the mess - and still with most of their pool of vulnerability sitting there awaiting their 'chance'.
(Local news: Wales is announcing that after its big 'circuit-breaker/fire-break' period, it will stop with the other different localised-lockdowns to make things simple, and stick with Wales-wide policies. England (effectively) is saying it is ruling out a national lockdown in favour of localised targetting, however. Scotland is doing what it sees fit, as usual and expected. NI is having a hard time, last I heard, but not sure which direction they're going. There's a call for all the nations to talk about a consistent and coordinated approach over Christmas, so that either everybody or nobody can travel anywhere or nowhere, but nobody seems hopeful that this will happen and everybody wouldn't be surprised.)
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 30, 2020, 11:58:46 am
Post by: misko27 on October 30, 2020, 10:47:19 pm
Edit: the NYtimes claims it's just under 100,000 worldometers.org claims it was over. In practice it's insignificant on which side of six digits we're on, save that it seems sure, at this point, that there are dark days to come.
How is Europe holding up btw. I hear "bad" but I'm too consumed by the details of my local catastrophes.
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 31, 2020, 12:26:13 pm
Post by: Starver on October 31, 2020, 01:01:58 pm
Their priority right now being to investigate who leaked things last night. I can only imagine that the delay right now is that they're trying to get several canary-traps set up and possibly even sprung.
(But the word on the non-Downing street is that we are going for another national lockdown, for a month. Not sure if that's England, England+Wales, getting Nicola to make it EW+Scotland... Ah, it's England, apparently. Again, this titbit of news from the News, not from the Boris, so... who knows?)
edit: Scotland, just Protection Levels 0-4 (only 1-3 currently in use); Wales "Firebreak" started 23 Oct until 9th Nov; NI restrictive "Measures" over Oct 16th-Nov 13th; England, perhaps the Lockdown II: Pandemic Boogaloo will go from ~5th November until ~5th December...
Given up on waiting on Boris emerging. I'll pick up the details later, as it won't actually change my plans much.
Post by: misko27 on October 31, 2020, 05:03:51 pm
Oh yeah the BBC is also on it: Covid-19: PM announces four-week England lockdown
(https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54763956)
Quote
Pubs, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops will have to close for four weeks from Thursday, he said.
But unlike the restrictions in spring, schools, colleges and universities can stay open.
After 2 December, the restrictions would be eased and regions would go back to the tiered system, he said.
Mr Johnson said: "Christmas is going to be different this year, perhaps very different, but it's my sincere hope and belief that by taking tough action now we can allow families across the country to be together."
Post by: Starver on October 31, 2020, 05:21:18 pm
Just in case the rest of the world wants to know what our country is most concerned about.
Post by: Starver on November 01, 2020, 08:28:42 am
Gove now says it could easily be longer. Depends upon "the facts". Which would be a first for both of them.QuoteAfter 2 December, the restrictions would be eased and regions would go back to the tiered system, [Boris] said.
Congratulations (and fingers crossed it isn't retroactively made untrue) to Australia for recording zero (new?) cases of Covid yesterday, BTW.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 01, 2020, 08:51:50 am
Congratulations (and fingers crossed it isn't retroactively made untrue) to Australia for recording zero (new?) cases of Covid yesterday, BTW.
Sorry to disappoint but official figures (https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers#daily-reported-cases) have 9 new cases for yesterday-ish (31/10) and 6 for today-ish (1/11). [-ish because it's actually ticked over to 2/11 for a large part of the population = eastern seaboard already]
Current cases are running at 174 nationwide. Still doing a hell of a lot better than many places (and coming into summer too :).)
Post by: Starver on November 01, 2020, 09:54:38 am
[1] And can't confirm, because the spaces in that link's text that must be graphs seem to be coming to me by tramp steamer, and taking impossibly long to load...
Post by: feelotraveller on November 01, 2020, 11:00:30 am
Post by: hector13 on November 01, 2020, 11:36:41 am
Incidentally, the current "Top 10 articles on the BBC News pages" are four about COVID stuff, four about Sean Connery, one about the weather (yacht capsizes in the current storm battering parts of the country, but not mine) and Firefighters rescue three men from a tumble drier (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-54760265)...
Just in case the rest of the world wants to know what our country is most concerned about.
I was actually looking for that story, ‘cause I forgot to click on it yesterday when I wanted a bit less covid and Connery.
Post by: Starver on November 01, 2020, 01:57:54 pm
At a guess you were probably seeing figures for the state of Victoria (main city Melbourne)Looking for the web version of the radio item you are correct (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-54768038) but the headline accouncement (that they probably shared) is a tad misleading into looking like "the whole of Oz".
(Current top-ten articles on BBC: 8 Covids (including one illegal rave convened/broken up with that as background), 1 US election thing and 1 (more) very famous footballer with brain illness. For those like Hector who want something different, I had to wander around to find something worth mentioning: Try police station blown up! (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54760040) - or over... Or maybe chatbot talks to chatbot (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54718671), which I'm not sure is an improvement on the time Eliza first talked to Parry, but there you go... ;) )
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 02, 2020, 03:05:29 pm
Realized too late what the situation was or else I´d have refused them entry. Also wanted me to take off my mask because my voice was "muffled" (eh, no thanks, and here´s a two sentence explanation of your reason to be here in lieu of my usual long explanation, and here you have a form to get stuff done elsewhere, and next appointment is going to be over the PHONE, have no doubt.)
I´m beyond angry. I minimized contact and kept distance but even so I can´t help to worry about whether this might have resulted in an infection.
Post by: Magistrum on November 02, 2020, 09:53:05 pm
So these people being dumb are still a major disadvantage to humanity in the fight, but probably aren't as big a problem as anticipated. I don't remember if he managed to publish anything solid about it (it is not his field after all) but the thought does ease me a bit.
Post by: wierd on November 03, 2020, 12:10:00 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 03, 2020, 12:51:24 am
Post by: Starver on November 03, 2020, 05:42:33 am
Yesterday, I helped someone find the local Blood Donor centre[3]. It emerged he was donating plasma for theraputic use. Which of course meant he had had it (it was unsaid, yet logically implied) but sufficiently past the infective stage that I am not at all concerned about this one particular street-meeting in the whole grand theme of the moment.
[1] Or if I did. I've never been given cause to believe that I have/get tested for that, by changes in my own health or any direct acquaintances, but it is still entirely possible!
[2] To be honest, at the time I treated it as a topical hyperbole, just a few steps down from "I was in the SAS, you know!"
[3] It's been almost a full year since my last donation (of non-special whole blood). I really must check if they want me.
Post by: ZBridges on November 04, 2020, 09:31:36 pm
Source (https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/04/world/covid-19-coronavirus-updates.amp.html?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#100000-cases-in-a-single-day-push-the-us-into-new-terrain)
Post by: Max™ on November 04, 2020, 10:27:47 pm
(https://i.imgur.com/F66KoOt.png)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Post by: ZBridges on November 04, 2020, 10:34:12 pm
Huh...
(https://i.imgur.com/F66KoOt.png)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
There are some reasons to doubt the validity of that site, so I don't use it. CNN published a story casting doubt on their counts.
Post by: hector13 on November 04, 2020, 10:44:22 pm
Why the fuck is your mouse pointer not master race default?
I can’t take your point seriously because of this.
Also you don’t seem to have any porn on those tabs.
Post by: Max™ on November 04, 2020, 11:26:15 pm
The tabs extend way off to the left and I have no idea how many are actually over there so I'm sure there's probably some porn mixed in there.
As for worldometers info being sketchy, it's tracked well enough with the various numbers I've seen elsewhere, they list their methodology changes and such with the updates, and the sources are right there in links to check so fuck what cnn thinks, I don't post links to shit without looking at the link unless I specifically say "I haven't checked this fully" because I'm the credible hulk, you wouldn't like me when I'm angry, because I back up my arguments with well researched and fully sourced information.
Post by: ZBridges on November 04, 2020, 11:50:02 pm
"Their main focus seems to be having the latest number wherever it comes from, whether it’s reliable or not, whether it’s well-sourced or not,” he said. “We think people should be wary, especially media, policy-makers and decision-makers. This data is not as accurate as they think it is.”
Post by: misko27 on November 04, 2020, 11:51:10 pm
Post by: wierd on November 05, 2020, 12:16:59 am
/S
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 05, 2020, 12:24:58 am
Why the fuck do you have your taskbar on the right of the screen?Yeah same here I think I've lost respect for Max after this.
Why the fuck is your mouse pointer not master race default?
I can’t take your point seriously because of this.
Also you don’t seem to have any porn on those tabs.
Post by: wierd on November 05, 2020, 12:35:13 am
Pointer probably came from using a dark icon theme. Cut the guy some slack. Not everyone can go full curmudgeon and go XFCE.
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 05, 2020, 02:44:10 am
Post by: Max™ on November 05, 2020, 02:55:39 am
It's Arch and KDE because I can't quit it. I've tried xfce, cinnamon, uh, whatever the hell ubuntu used before they switched to their weird new style... GNOME! That's what it was. I've done *buntu derivatives, gentoo, puppy, mint, suse, and I swear I'm missing a couple in there but I love arch and KDE letting me pick and choose what the hell I want so everything looks exactly how I want it to look. Though I was annoyed when the old simple style icons with just the stylized shape in white and transparent backgrounds stopped getting updated and broke shit so I just said fuck it and went to like breeze or whatever that is, with one of the big see-through pointers I grabbed from one of the sets because it makes it easier to gauge the speed with my mousekeys.xkb setup.
I haven't let windows on my system since I used windows 7 in a vbox for some online schooling stuff which amusingly completely bypassed a lot of the security measures intended from the online testing software they use because it only saw the windows 7 image and desktop, not the stuff outside the vbox window or other monitor.
Also worth noting that worldometer favoring higher counts is more likely to be reducing the error than not, excess mortality shows covid-19 deaths are vastly undercounted to say the least. Last update I saw on excess mortality figures was over 300k and we've since added something like 25k confirmed deaths.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 05, 2020, 02:57:20 am
Fake edit: bloody ninja's
Post by: Max™ on November 05, 2020, 03:02:08 am
Post by: feelotraveller on November 05, 2020, 03:17:31 am
Post by: Max™ on November 05, 2020, 03:30:38 am
Thankfully mousekeys fixed the carpal tunnel twinges I was starting to get from my mouse originally which trackballs only helped with and the controlled was great for except when qjoypad would bug out loading the init file and misinterpret the x/y 0/0 as -30000/-30000 for some reason so the cursor starts running off to the left side of the screen at full speed with the sticks dead centered.
Post by: Zangi on November 05, 2020, 02:43:43 pm
Apparently minks can catch and spread Covid19.
Post by: wierd on November 05, 2020, 03:00:42 pm
Post by: Starver on November 05, 2020, 03:54:58 pm
Whether it can leap back again is probably only circumstance-limited. So maybe you should always disinfect your hands after giving a tiger a belly-rub. If not before...
Post by: hector13 on November 05, 2020, 08:18:27 pm
Unhappy, this is day... 6 or 7, maybe 9, of my direct covid experience, it has mostly been WHY DID SOMEONE TAKE ME APART AND PUT ME BACK TOGETHER SLIGHTLY WRONG since the start.
This needs to end :’(
Post by: martinuzz on November 05, 2020, 11:01:00 pm
Post by: hector13 on November 05, 2020, 11:23:23 pm
I appreciate the well wishes, though. Enso.
Post by: Frumple on November 05, 2020, 11:34:52 pm
By the numbers it's probably going to kill someone regular to the forum, if it hasn't already, and probably more or less cripple some, too, but... still. Y'don't want to see it happen :-\
Post by: delphonso on November 05, 2020, 11:38:40 pm
I don’t know if 6 and a half years of residence necessarily qualifies me as a ‘sconny, but I’ve picked up a few things, doncha know.
I appreciate the well wishes, though. Enso.
Best of luck Hector. I guess by now you know that the only cure is a few games of sheepshead, a lienenkugels and about 700 calories of fried cheese.
Post by: delphonso on November 05, 2020, 11:44:23 pm
Post by: hector13 on November 05, 2020, 11:51:38 pm
PPE: Leinies, man. Canoe Paddler ftw.
Post by: nenjin on November 06, 2020, 12:03:25 am
Guy and his wife at my work have also caught it, but they've been quarantining since March. Same story, the loss of taste was the most obvious symptom. However my friend that caught it a month or two ago didn't really report those kinds of symptoms. Her's were more "digestive" in nature, in her words.
Good luck, get well soon.
Post by: hector13 on November 06, 2020, 12:17:48 am
The 11 hours of sleep for a few days was quite pleasant though.
Post by: Max™ on November 06, 2020, 04:19:30 am
I've had flu so mild I didn't really fucking notice and I've been nailed to the bed by spikes of pain which caught on fire every time I coughed, which was all but constant at times until I took like robitussin I think and it scared my body into cooperating so I wouldn't do that to it again because what the fuck is that shit made out of?
Like I've only ever been sick enough to start sobbing in between coughing fits once and that was more than enough, that and an infected tooth are absolutely "once was way more than I ever need" type of shit that I'd need a really fucking good excuse to wish on anybody.
The existence of long-COVID and significantly higher risk of death really makes me hope having an actual leader in office who listens to experts and does the right shit can help us get this under some sort of control, but we're about to crest 120k cases a day and 1.2k deaths holding steady for some reason.
Didn't some fat fucking loser piece of shit say this would all go away after the election? Can't remember his name, just know he's a fucking failure and a loser.
Post by: JoshuaFH on November 06, 2020, 04:27:06 am
Post by: Max™ on November 06, 2020, 04:36:59 am
The only thing that's helped slow it at all at this point is literally people doing it for themselves in spite of total lack of leadership by the orange loser.
Thankfully Biden listens to experts, will stop sabotaging the necessary systems which were in place to fix shit, and can offer a general guiding stance from the top like literally any president in history prior to the last moron would have.
Post by: Starver on November 06, 2020, 06:46:22 am
It also needs to be said that (for all they're worth) my best wishes also go to those who can't or won't indicate their plight, who are known forumites that drop off the radar. I dropped out last year (purely technical issues, then tardiness reconnecting until Lockdown concentrated my mind on getting back on this and a couple of other non-physical communities) and it's easy to do. I'm not sure I'd even post an "I'm going on a ventilator, wish me luck!" thing, if it came to that (and there was even an opportunity to do so), so inevitably there's at least one 'known name' in this forum of this size who is in a somewhat similar position, and no other way of learning this. Or was or will be.
This applies to all other kinds of life's curveballs, of course. And as diluting a placebo still further really doesn't do much either way my thoughts also go to absolutely everyone else who I ought to be thinking of, but that I knew it.
Post by: martinuzz on November 06, 2020, 09:32:40 am
After 2 weeks of specialized trauma care, they started to regain their ability to speak, albeit only one word... "grisha5"
Post by: King Zultan on November 06, 2020, 09:54:48 am
Post by: hector13 on November 06, 2020, 11:20:39 am
I had a couple of stabs at "I wish you well Hector", almost immeciately you announced. I held back because wishes aint horses, and couldn't compete well against a placebo (or maybe exactly as well) but I regret not saying it anyway.
It also needs to be said that (for all they're worth) my best wishes also go to those who can't or won't indicate their plight, who are known forumites that drop off the radar. I dropped out last year (purely technical issues, then tardiness reconnecting until Lockdown concentrated my mind on getting back on this and a couple of other non-physical communities) and it's easy to do. I'm not sure I'd even post an "I'm going on a ventilator, wish me luck!" thing, if it came to that (and there was even an opportunity to do so), so inevitably there's at least one 'known name' in this forum of this size who is in a somewhat similar position, and no other way of learning this. Or was or will be.
This applies to all other kinds of life's curveballs, of course. And as diluting a placebo still further really doesn't do much either way my thoughts also go to absolutely everyone else who I ought to be thinking of, but that I knew it.
Eh, well wishes don’t help, but nor do they hinder, and I guess they strengthen bonds or something.
You raise a fair point though. I was considering not saying a thing about it, but maybe my experience could be interesting or enlightening for someone. Hopefully any other taciturn sufferers are recovering well.
Post by: nenjin on November 06, 2020, 04:32:04 pm
Post by: Max™ on November 06, 2020, 04:43:53 pm
We're gonna end up with nose and lip fetishes if this keeps going too long, aren't we?
Someone with a mask around their chin is a nasal harlot, lipwhore.
Post by: Starver on November 06, 2020, 06:01:10 pm
If it were a gas-mask, I might need to cultivate it more carefully, but for basic particulate/'mist' filteration and inhibition it probably adds to the obstacle-course towards and away from my airways.
* Including moustache, but then that's entirely within the mask. At the most clipped (weekly) so does the beard, at least until the clipped-and-razored bits become stubble and then a week's growth beyond the usually chosen beard area.
Post by: Max™ on November 06, 2020, 11:28:44 pm
If not, congratulations!
Post by: Reelya on November 07, 2020, 12:25:51 am
I don't know if there's anything really substantial a Biden Presidency can do to stymie the pandemic, it seems to have already reached a critical mass that there's no hope of ever containing it again. The shit that would be tossed into his lap is a truly unfair scenario for a president to enter, and the most he could hope for is damage control.
How long before FOX is calling it the Biden Plague?
Post by: misko27 on November 07, 2020, 12:30:18 am
Post by: misko27 on November 14, 2020, 01:22:47 pm
National
Anyway have I mentioned shits fucked? Of course i have, but if you weren't entirely sure, here's the US graph:
Spoiler: Source: NY Times (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Me, myself and I
Locally my area is panicking over a small but sustained general increase in transmission, as well as a few more specific areas where there is an ongoing outbreak (Staten Island, some neighborhoods in Queens and Brooklyn). Some restrictions on capacity and opening hours on gyms and restaurants have been added (note: we didn't ever remove all of our restrictions in the first place). We're under 3% positivity rate so our schools will stay open for now; there was a possibility they'd close on Monday. But overall there's still an expectation that there will be another lockdown eventually. A map of places getting more specific restrictions in NYC:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 14, 2020, 01:28:14 pm
Post by: Frumple on November 14, 2020, 01:58:38 pm
mfw we're dying but it's been a week since last post and I'm still doubleposting. We've had Pfizer announce a possible vaccine and still no interest in thread.I mean, yeah, we're just kinda' fucked; situation fucked, continues to be fucked doesn't make for much engagement sometimes :-\
... anyway, for what it's worth I've seen it mentioned repeatedly the pfizer thing probably shouldn't be, like, associated with them that much. Apparently basically the only thing they've been involved with is marketing, with all the actual development being done by, uh. Some german company I've forgotten the name of. Bio something?
Remains to be seen whether the claims of 90% effectiveness hold true, in any case... though even if it does, the infrastructure issues related to distribution is probably going to cause problems.
Post by: Starver on November 14, 2020, 02:56:50 pm
Also, they and their partners (and the others and their partners) should have the experience to stop problems like that which befell TeGenero, even with expedited phases of testing. So long as the FDA/MHRA aren't being over-pressurised by anyone, that's another thing I'd be relying upon. (Not so sure about non-'western' regulators like Roszdravnadzor and whatever the local Chinese equivalent is. They're doing things, I know, but it's sometimes hard to know what exactly.)
To this extent, I don't really care if it's Pfizer's own waged lab technicians or not. It's the whole thing that matters and I imagine there should at least be credit where its due even if some Rosalind Franklin figure never gets the full public acclaim.
[1] Stretching Bback before GlaxoSmithKline was still separately Glaxo-Wellcome and SmithKline-Beecham, and in fact back before then when Glaxo and Wellcome and SmithKline and Beecham were all separate and mostly competing companies who still sent work our way. All those jokes usually told about the PriceWaterhouseCoopers type of ineffibly diverse accountancy/management/advertising firms merging their various names were also quite obvious to us in our field. Well, definitely anyone who had an admin's-eye view on our whole backup and archival system logs and saw various directory names hyphenating and changing every few years as greater or lesser degrees of cooperation occured due to specific projects or overarching aquisitions.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on November 14, 2020, 03:13:38 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 14, 2020, 03:15:07 pm
Re: pfizer vaccine: all we have to go on is a corporate press release but there's something significant: unlike previous press releases which only talked about surrogate markers like antibody levels, etc... in this one they're making claims about effectiveness in the field. So I'm cautiously optimistic.
Something else about the vaccine: there are serious concerns about whether ANY country in the world has the infrastructure to deliver it. Apparently it must be kept frozen at -70° to keep it stable. I dont know to what extent that's the usual overkill for clinical grade stuff, but it does make storage tricky
Post by: Rolan7 on November 14, 2020, 03:24:41 pm
mfw we're dying but it's been a week since last post and I'm still doubleposting. We've had Pfizer announce a possible vaccine and still no interest in thread.I saved up for a month's worth of groceries on election day. I managed to stay engaged for about a week, including a street protest, then hid to recover/quarantine as is my privilege. I'm currently re-watching *The West Wing*, that's how deeply I'm trying to just survive all this.
Not to mention dreaming about hugging my family - and even posting about it.
I'm not mad at you whatsoever, just amazed at how incredibly fucked this all is.
Post by: Starver on November 14, 2020, 03:32:09 pm
@Chairman: (Not going into how much Franklin got overlooked, it was the time that it was, etc.)
...Depending upon the actual thing (and the Pfizer one is delicate RNA, if I'm bringing the right one to mind) there's cold-chains and cool-chains set up around most of the world for the needs of various vaccine distributions. I believe this one needs the more limited "colder-chain", which doesn't reach far outside the 'developed' world (not routinely/in bulk, anyway) but does exist.
The problem will be volume(/'bandwidth'), but then the manufacturing end is already having to be ramped up, so it's not like there's suddenly 14 billion doses waiting for suitably equipped transport tomorrow morning.
Post by: Rolan7 on November 14, 2020, 03:42:35 pm
Nobody will tell me how much the vaccine will cost meI *really* should have been tested on two occasions, but I'm uninsured and have little incentive to pay for it out of pocket. This administration has reaped what it sowed in human life.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 14, 2020, 03:48:53 pm
Bear in mind it´s not just the undeveloped world: you need to get the vaccine to everyone. I´m guessing the "colder chain" is not present in every region in the developed world either. In my own experience: in the hospital I did my training in we had a liquid nitrogen freezer for stem cells because we did transplantation. Most haem departments I´ve worked in don´t. I don´t actually know if other departments have their own nitro freezers but I´m leaning on "no" and am finding out as we speak...
Post by: Starver on November 14, 2020, 04:25:36 pm
I don't think the big problem will be that anyone is forever isolated away from the right infrastrtucture based on temperature requirement alone. There'll still be geographic, political, social, financial and and conflict-based barriers, of course. People currently suffering from things like the anti-Polio propoganda and activities are going to be potential stuffed even if it can be delivered simply alongside fizzy drinks (https://www.projectlastmile.com/what-is-the-role-of-the-coca-cola-company-within-project-last-mile/).
(The detail is getting beyond where I feel like stretching my current armchair-expertise. You're far closer to the medical front line than I've been for a while in any capacity.)
[1] Not yet counting the Russian one.
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 14, 2020, 05:13:30 pm
Well, the issue has been raised by several folks, including the WHO. https://www.businessinsider.com/vaccine-cold-chain-why-coronavirus-shot-needs-to-be-cold-2020-11?r=US&IR=T
Bear in mind it´s not just the undeveloped world: you need to get the vaccine to everyone. I´m guessing the "colder chain" is not present in every region in the developed world either. In my own experience: in the hospital I did my training in we had a liquid nitrogen freezer for stem cells because we did transplantation. Most haem departments I´ve worked in don´t. I don´t actually know if other departments have their own nitro freezers but I´m leaning on "no" and am finding out as we speak...
From what I've heard, at least, the temperature requirement is going to be an issue in many parts of the US as well.
Post by: Iduno on November 14, 2020, 09:45:55 pm
And it's still impossible to convince anyone here that it's serious.
Post by: Bumber on November 14, 2020, 10:22:40 pm
Nobody will tell me how much the vaccine will cost me
Trump claimed it would be free for US citizens. IDK what Biden's going to do going forward.
Post by: Frumple on November 14, 2020, 10:54:09 pm
Trump, well, he lost re-election so other than whatever problems his administration causes in the next few months on the subject, his previous probably-lies don't matter much.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on November 14, 2020, 11:00:01 pm
Nobody will tell me how much the vaccine will cost me
Trump claimed it would be free for US citizens. IDK what Biden's going to do going forward.
I wouldn't ask Trump what the weather is like even if we were both standing outside.
The pandemic has shown me that even if our healthcare system literally fails we still won't consider universal healthcare for some goddamn reason.
Post by: Iduno on November 14, 2020, 11:43:39 pm
Nobody will tell me how much the vaccine will cost me
Trump claimed it would be free for US citizens. IDK what Biden's going to do going forward.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
He's said what the far-right and the center-right wanted him to say, so it's hard to know what he'll actually try to do, and will have to face some adversity in congress if he doesn't do what the far-right wants, so...
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 14, 2020, 11:49:07 pm
(That said, there might be a route through the Defense Production Act to do something similar to reducing the prices? Hrm.)
Post by: Frumple on November 15, 2020, 07:35:48 am
And for those that want something more than a screenshot of a clickbait title... (https://prospect.org/coronavirus/biden-sides-with-big-pharma-against-affordable-coronavirus-v/)*Nobody will tell me how much the vaccine will cost me
Trump claimed it would be free for US citizens. IDK what Biden's going to do going forward.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
He's said what the far-right and the center-right wanted him to say, so it's hard to know what he'll actually try to do, and will have to face some adversity in congress if he doesn't do what the far-right wants, so...
Actual content of the article: Biden not actually saying bloody anything back in March, just not going out of their way to support a specific process involving something that's apparently never been successfully used before (something called march-in rights).
If you want to see what's actually been stated by Biden's campaign, rather than not-stated months ago, search this page (https://joebiden.com/covid-plan/) for "ELIMINATING COST BARRIERS FOR PREVENTION OF AND CARE FOR COVID-19" and read downwards from there.
It's not as explicit a support for free vaccines as I'd like to see, but it's also not clickbait horseshit reading tea leaves from a lack of comment most of a year ago on supporting a legislative provision that's never been bloody used, either.
* Actually, that seems to be either paywalled or asking you to register, so have the source they're cribbing from. (https://readsludge.com/2020/03/17/biden-sides-with-big-pharma-against-plan-that-could-make-coronavirus-vaccine-affordable/)
E: Interesting note, though: While biden hasn't come out in support of trying to invoke the march-in clause, harris has. So despite the non-comment by biden directly, he was apparently willing to take on a VP that's in favor of it.
If you're trying to read tea leaves there it probably ends up something of a wash. Suggests it might get tried if republican sabotage ends up too intractable, though.
Post by: McTraveller on November 15, 2020, 06:26:41 pm
New lockdown restrictions, but in the first 10 minutes of the speech there have been no details. Just a lot of "this virus us tough, we have to work together to beat it, etc." A little blurb about "we will need help from the federal government to help with more stimulus."
Why can't they just say: "Here are the restrictions. Here is what we are going to do to help with the loss of income for those 3 weeks."
I don't need any of this token sentimental stuff. Just give us the details!
15 minutes now and no details. She's passed it off to a health representative, and it's just "oh our states numbers are still bad, and what we're doing isn't enough" with lots of statistics, but nothing on the new orders...
20 minutes, now passed of to speaker number 3... ugh it's like these people are trying to write memorable speeches and it's terrible because the speeches are campy and they are just reading them.
Ok 23 minutes in, they are finally stating the details of the order. Pretty minor - no indoor dining, closed entertainment venues like theaters, closing high schools for 3 weeks, only working from home, and no sports expect pro and college. Dunno if it will do much to be honest...
edit: grammar
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 15, 2020, 06:28:06 pm
If you want to see what's actually been stated by Biden's campaign, rather than not-stated months ago, search this page (https://joebiden.com/covid-plan/) for "ELIMINATING COST BARRIERS FOR PREVENTION OF AND CARE FOR COVID-19" and read downwards from there.
It's not as explicit a support for free vaccines as I'd like to see, but it's also not clickbait horseshit reading tea leaves from a lack of comment most of a year ago on supporting a legislative provision that's never been bloody used, either.
Worth noting that many of the major points in this Biden plan involve amending laws / authorizing spending / etc., which are all policies that would require a new law from congress.
Post by: Frumple on November 15, 2020, 07:28:09 pm
The thing that article Iduno referenced was harping on is an utterly untested provision in a law that's been around since the 80s, which isn't exactly a better alternative, especially given the state of the judiciary.
If the Georgia runoffs don't break blue shit's probably going to have trouble getting better, for all taking some of the actively malicious folks out of the equation'll at least make it a bit harder to get worse.
Post by: Reelya on November 15, 2020, 07:49:15 pm
This guy was also pushing hydroxychloroquine a few months back, and the really telling part is that when I told him I heard that there were real problems with that vaccine he countered with "but on Facebook I heard ..." and that was the actual last straw and I fucking cut him off and yelled at him that what you read on Facebook shouldn't be considered verified information. "but on Facebook I heard ..." pretty much explains where this guy is getting all the stupid shit he comes up with, since this guy isn't savvy enough to have gone on any right-leaning forums etc. It's like a leaky dam and you're wondering where the water is getting in, and I think I found it.
Anyway, on the Pfizer vaccine, I'm reading right now that it requires storage at -70 degrees celsius, apart from the other problems I was aware of already. That's -94 Fahrenheit. This seems like an obvious flaw for something that we want to roll out to everyone.
Post by: Starver on November 15, 2020, 08:02:13 pm
Post by: Reelya on November 15, 2020, 08:12:04 pm
-70°C is 255°D, though. ;)
I had to look that up. Delise scale is it? Points for obscurity, but we can go higher numbers with Rankine; 365.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on November 16, 2020, 12:16:30 am
I didn’t know either of those scales existed, what, if any, are they used for?-70°C is 255°D, though. ;)
I had to look that up. Delise scale is it? Points for obscurity, but we can go higher numbers with Rankine; 365.
Post by: Starver on November 16, 2020, 04:05:24 am
-70°C is 255°D, though. ;)
I had to look that up. Delise scale is it? Points for obscurity, but we can go higher numbers with Rankine; 365.
Yeah, but by measuring in degrees Delisle you're also above freezing point @150°D, solving all our problems. ;)
I didn’t know either of those scales existed, what, if any, are they used for?Well, Rankine degrees == Fahrenheit degrees just as Kelvin degrees == (modern[1]) Celsius/Centigrade degrees (though degrees Rankine and degrees Kelvin are offset to °F and °C, or rather no longer offset to absolute zero), give or take more modern Boltzman redefinitions.
...arguments about relative usefulness of C° and F° for everyday use in 3, 2, 1...
[1] The original being reversed, the modern just renamed in honour,. And goes some small way to avoid confusion with a semi-obscure rationalist angular measure.
Post by: Starver on November 16, 2020, 05:25:57 am
Boris Johnson, who was hospitalised with Covid earlier in the year, is now officially isolating in 10 Downing Street(ish) after meeting an MP who has subsequently tested positive and thus triggered an alert to him through the UK's much vaunted/derided Covid App.
Personally, I find that this has so many intetesting aspects (without going into the fact that Dominic "Barnard's Castle" Cunmings had only just stepped out of his 'advisor' role...), but I doubt it'll be as important an event as his original actual illness. (No, I don't think it was deliberately staged, either.)
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 16, 2020, 02:18:24 pm
Well, for those who haven't seen it yet (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-moderna/we-can-stop-covid-19-moderna-vaccine-success-gives-world-more-hope-idUSKBN27W1E6) the interim data from a late-stage trial suggests that Moderna's entry is roughly 94% effective.
Unlike the Pfizer effort, this one can be stored at normal fridge temperatures, but (like the Pfizer vaccine, if I recall) does require two shots.
Quote
Moderna expects to have enough safety data required for U.S. authorization in the next week or so and expects to file for emergency use authorization (EUA) in the coming weeks.
All that said, keep in mind that the N values for these experiments are relatively low, and (of course) we don't really know about potential long-term effects or other issues - just a bit on short-term side effects:
Quote
Most side effects were mild to moderate. A significant proportion of volunteers, however, experienced more severe aches and pains after taking the second dose, including about 10% who had fatigue severe enough to interfere with daily activities while another 9% had severe body aches. Most of these complaints were generally short-lived, Moderna said.
Post by: misko27 on November 16, 2020, 03:07:23 pm
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 16, 2020, 03:28:25 pm
It's also unclear how much the vaccine will affect transmission, which may well become an issue with the staggered rollout that'll be (necessarily, thanks to stock limitations) happening.
Post by: Starver on November 16, 2020, 03:42:13 pm
(Well, yes. But won't stop those opposed to the vaccines from claiming a high adverse effect rate from including this in their figures...)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on November 16, 2020, 04:00:39 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 16, 2020, 04:19:23 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on November 16, 2020, 04:20:47 pm
What needle doesn’t cause pain at injection other than anesthetics? Of course a needle is going to cause pain, it’s a needle
I expect they mean lingering pain over the days and weeks following the shot. Sometimes that's normal, sometimes it's not depending on what was injected, how much and where.
Post by: Starver on November 16, 2020, 06:31:42 pm
I'm sure there are better lists than this, BTW, but by my reckoning we've got the following on the go as serious contenders.
Phase 3+...
BioNTech (Pfizer) - mRNA (temporary new building instructions) - ahead of the field
Gamalaya (Russia's "Sputnik V") - Non-replicating virus (impotent bad-guy) - announced suspiciously early, approval followed on the heals of Pfizer. If I were a cynic, I'd be wondering how much of the 'work' put into this was actually taken from one or more of the various computer hacks that have been reported on Western researchers. Doesn't mean it's a bad product, though.
Moderna - mRNA - apparently far enough along to be pre-purchased in bulk by the UK government..? (Didn't have them this high in my list until today, but I've probably not been paying enough attention.)
Phase 3...
Beijing/CanSinoBIO - Modified surrogate virus (low-nastiness virus made t look like the bad one) - not much information
Beijing/Sinopharm - Inactivated virus - given early 'emergency use' in a couple of middle-eastern countries
Janssen - Non-replicating virus - Paused for a severe reaction
Oxford/AstraZeneca - Modified surrogate virus - Was paused for a single severe reaction, but back on track
Sinovac - Inactivated virus - Trials paused after a ?non-clinical? death, but resumed
Phase 2...
CureVac - mRNA
Novovax - Direct Proteins? (I think they're just injecting the bare protein spikes)
Phase 1+...
AnGes - DNA (plasmid rings shuttled deep into host-cells)
Arcturus - mRNA
Chinese Academy of Med. Sci. - Inactivate virus
Inovio - DNA (plasmid rings)
Phase 1...
Genexine - DNA
GlaxoSmithKline - Virus-like particles
GlaxoSmithKline - Spike proteins
Imperial Colleage London - mRNA
Shenzen Institute - A couple of different versions of Viral modification of vaccinee DNA? (Sounds heavy-handed.)
Vaxine - Proteins
China(/PLA Academy) - mRNA
(Had to copy this in from a lot of random info I have on a well scribbled-on/over-scribbled scrap of paper. Errors may abound, and out-of-datedness might be the order of the day. With any luck.)
Post by: Reelya on November 17, 2020, 01:38:00 am
Boris Johnson, who was hospitalised with Covid earlier in the year, is now officially isolating in 10 Downing Street(ish) after meeting an MP who has subsequently tested positive and thus triggered an alert to him through the UK's much vaunted/derided Covid App.
I was listening to a podcast which outlined Boris' career. I was not aware how much of a phony he is.
He got his big break by writing spurious anti-EU articles such as about how they were banning bendy bananas and stuff and would have banana police checking the curvature. I'm pretty sure Boris treated Brexit the same - tilting at windmills to make himself popular. The problem is that if you actually topple the windmill then you lose your shtick, as happened to him when he outright admitted he had literally no post-Brexit plan. A guy for whom his whole literal stage act is railing against the EU doesn't have anything to say once you actually leave the EU.
So this is shit. You guys have the bendy-banana shock jock running the country during the century's worst pandemic.
Post by: scriver on November 17, 2020, 03:22:44 am
Sweden for example aren't allowed to export any apples to other EU countries because "the peels have spots on them". Because we don't constantly soak our orchards in insecticide so insects leave perfectly harmless marks on the skin at a minority of the fruit. And the frail little Germans have mental breakdowns at seeing such imperfection in their grocery stores or something so the sale of them must be completely banned.
Post by: wierd on November 17, 2020, 03:25:07 am
Because this is how the EU ends up like the US, with epic asstons of food waste.
Post by: scriver on November 17, 2020, 03:35:14 am
And if it's internal the EU-government buys it all up and dumps it in Africa, dumping the food prices there and making it impossible for African farmers to make a living, so they're forced to sell their land to European agro-corporations.
Post by: Starver on November 17, 2020, 04:34:17 am
Threadwise, whether it's him or someone else (possibly Cummins&Co, who have since left as I mentioned in passing) it wasn't very long after he was still poo-pooing the very idea of a national re-lockdown[2] that he then had England back in this re-lockdown. Agility of response based on incoming data is a good quality, and maybe he knew ahead of time but had to stop everyone from panicing[3], but it doesn't look good. Everything seems to be far too harsh and not precautionary enough. Not to different people, maybe a sign of a good median approach that shares around the necessary pain,, but often simultaneously to the same person, which indicates a 'bad median'. It's a running joke that if Nicola Sturgeon keeps on deciding exactly the opposite for Scotland, she'll not go far wrong.
Speaking of which, there was (last night, haven't checked this morning yet) a suggestion that a Tier-4 regional lockdown might be applied to some areas of Scotland. (Yes, I know this means the current approach wasn't enough, but at least her language tends to use the term "we hope", before forced to adapt to circumstances, rather than peppered with "we will" on everything it turns out he later won't and can't.)
I must check on Wales and NI situations, while I remember... But whether it's worth a further comment I don't really know yet.
[1] It's headed up, in my search just now, with articles by the Grauniad, BBC, etc, which will get some peoples' hackles up for different reasons.
[2]
England (effectively) is saying it is ruling out a national lockdown in favour of localised targetting, however.
[3] Not supported by the tendency to say "this is urgent, so it will start a week on Thursday" ...giving you all plenty of time to plan your last-gasp visits to all the pubs you know and love.
Post by: Reelya on November 17, 2020, 12:04:59 pm
Those aren't phony at all. The EU literally do.
Sweden for example aren't allowed to export any apples to other EU countries because "the peels have spots on them". Because we don't constantly soak our orchards in insecticide so insects leave perfectly harmless marks on the skin at a minority of the fruit. And the frail little Germans have mental breakdowns at seeing such imperfection in their grocery stores or something so the sale of them must be completely banned.
Where Boris lied was that he said the legislation in question banned 'bendy' bananas. Nothing was actually banned. You just couldn't sell wonky-looking bananas and claim they were top grade. The proposed rules actually simplified previous existing rules, standardizing things into grades so that buyers and sellers could know what they're getting more easily between different nations. There were three grades and the bottom grade was a catch-all grade. The bulk of the rules were actually things of the nature of saying you couldn't shipments that have mold and other defects of that nature, which is all common sense but if you don't write it down some asshole will try and circumvent it, but Boris of course didn't mention any of that.
You really do need rules about this stuff. For example say you buy a shipment of "top grade" bananas but when you get them they're half-black with splotches and mold and all different sizes, and funny shapes. You got ripped off. But the term "top grade" isn't defined so what are you going to do? So food labeling laws generally say you cannot use the term Top Grade to describe your product if that's misleading, but you then have to define some set of guidelines about what the hell "Top Grade" actually means, and that of course requires you define what people think a banana is supposed to look like, which guys like Boris can then deliberately misinterpret as trying to " "force bananas to look a certain way". What it's actually about, is about transparency in buying and selling by standardizing descriptions. If Top Grade bananas is a defined thing, and you buy them and they don't match what that's supposed to look like, you can in fact sue their asses off. This is what it's about.
As for the Swedish apples, it's a clear bet that you can still sell splotchy apples as much as you want, you just can't label them as being whatever grade they consider for supermarkets. I'd be sure splotchy apples can still be sold for processing etc. This is about being pissed that the apples they want to sell don't fit the grade you want to label it as: i.e, "they should pay us a lot of money for our apples, the bastards!" But ... if the grade was changed then the people buying it would know it had been changed and they'd pay you no more for it than they do now. The whole idea of how Germans are too picky about apples and how that's an intolerable affront to Sweden is just ludicrous tabloid bullshit. The only reason you care and they're writing about it is because Germans have money, and your industry wants their money, but doesn't have a product Germans actually want.
What grade they're considered as doesn't change how much they're actually worth in the market, and if the EU let anyone with apples like your ones called them "A Grade" which is clearly what Sweden wants, then the private industry would just come up with their own labeling system to avoid mixing your apples in with the ones they like more. They'd call the better ones "A++ Grade" informally or something, but because it's an informal designation it'd go back to things being less transparent, thus defeating the entire purpose of having agreed-on grades.
Post by: Jopax on November 18, 2020, 07:14:59 pm
Was hanging out with my cousin this weekend and today he let me know he's tested positive. We spent a good few hours together so if he was anything approaching infectious I probably caught it. Feeling ok so far I guess, but if I do start showing symptoms it'll probably be by the end of the week.
Fun times ahead I guess :V
Post by: Reelya on November 18, 2020, 07:25:05 pm
Or alternatively, the deep state has long tentacles.
Post by: Frumple on November 18, 2020, 07:27:19 pm
Good luck, hopefully you make it through without permanent organ damage :-\
Post by: hector13 on November 18, 2020, 10:53:25 pm
The phone call I got telling me that happened about 9 days after I tested positive, which itself happened 9 days after I developed symptoms, so:.. yeah. I understand why they have to do it, but... alacrity.
Post by: Zangi on November 19, 2020, 05:00:27 pm
Dang, you know it's real when people on Bay12 have it :/Eh, had it early on. Just hoping I don’t get a second ride.
Or alternatively, the deep state has long tentacles.
Post by: Jopax on November 19, 2020, 06:04:27 pm
Yeah, the local health department here are all about you contacting people you were in contact with over the previous 48 hours before you develop symptoms.
The phone call I got telling me that happened about 9 days after I tested positive, which itself happened 9 days after I developed symptoms, so:.. yeah. I understand why they have to do it, but... alacrity.
Oh man I wish they bothered with that stuff here. According to my cousin they didn't even bother asking him any contact info. That means I don't really have an official reason to stay out of work, not until I possibly develop enough symptoms to get tested I guess.
Post by: Bumber on November 19, 2020, 09:02:23 pm
Quote from: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html
How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study — the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.
Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1), the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.
The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.
“That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study.
The findings are likely to come as a relief to experts worried that immunity to the virus might be short-lived, and that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.
And the research squares with another recent finding: that survivors of SARS, caused by another coronavirus, still carry certain important immune cells 17 years after recovering.
The findings are consistent with encouraging evidence emerging from other labs. Researchers at the University of Washington, led by the immunologist Marion Pepper, had earlier shown that certain “memory” cells that were produced following infection with the coronavirus persist for at least three months (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.11.20171843v2) in the body.
A study published last week also found that people who have recovered from Covid-19 have powerful and protective killer immune cells (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-01143-2) even when antibodies are not detectable.
Post by: Bumber on November 19, 2020, 09:32:02 pm
https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/18/flash-on-the-danish-mask-study/
On lockdowns:
https://www.aier.org/article/even-a-military-enforced-quarantine-cant-stop-the-virus-study-reveals/
Thoughts?
Post by: hector13 on November 19, 2020, 11:07:34 pm
90% of positive cases were symptomless - which means they’re spreading the disease between the weekly tests - and still only 2% of participants tested positive in what they term an extreme quarantine which really wasn’t that extreme because they essentially just described how a quarantine works, other than maybe the extent of cleaning they did.
Without checking the actual source, what they meant by not having “personal electronics or other items that might contribute to surface transmission” also describes almost literally everything small enough to fit in your hands.
The control group also didn’t seem like much of a control because it doesn’t actually appear they were tested at day 0, so who knows how many of them were positive at the start, and the PCR tests for active infections, not antibodies. It’s also very cheeky they don’t list how many of the control group were symptomatic, because I imagine coughing your lungs up is going to significantly inflate the virus you’re shedding into the environment.
OH THE KICKER! They accuse the media of ignoring the science because one paper supports their position that lockdowns don’t stop the virus. Magic.
I will read the first one now.
Post-read edit: just as silly as the second one.
He even says that surgical masks are better than cloth masks, which is utterly ridiculous.
It’s the same as the second one: an obviously biased person finding one study which supports their position ignoring all the studies suggesting otherwise and shouting “SEE! THEY WON’T LOOK AT THE SCIENCE TELLING THEM THEY’RE WRONG!” without any sense of irony.
Post by: Starver on November 19, 2020, 11:14:48 pm
And I've seen similar car-crashes from the opposing POV, too, before you ask.
Maybe it's 4am talking (never you mind), but as you asked for thoughts... I'll look at the other later, when my brain is maybe more receptive.
((Ninjaed!)) (((Twice!)))
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 19, 2020, 11:46:10 pm
It's promising! But there are a few caveats - I'll quote from their conclusions:
Quote
It is well recognized that the magnitude of the antibody response against SARS-CoV-2 is highly heterogenous between individuals. We observed that heterogenous initial antibody responses did not collapse into a homogeneous circulating antibody memory. That heterogeneity is thus a central feature of immune memory to this virus. For antibodies, the responses spanned a ~200-fold range. Additionally, the heterogeneity showed that long-term longitudinal studies will be required to precisely define antibody kinetics to SARS-CoV-2. Nevertheless, at 5+ months PSO, almost all individuals were positive for SARS-CoV-2 spike and RBD IgG.
. . . .
While immune memory is the source of long-term protective immunity, direct conclusions about protective immunity cannot be made on the basis of quantifying SARS-CoV-2 circulating antibodies, memory B cells, CD8+ T cells, and CD4+ T cells, because mechanisms of protective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 are not defined in humans.
. . . .
When considering potential connections between immune memory and protective immunity, it is key to consider the available epidemiological data. Individual case reports demonstrate that reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 are occurring (72, 73). What is currently lacking is an epidemiological framework for quantifying how rare or common such reinfection events are. Thus, interpretations of current events are very constrained. There is a high degree of heterogeneity in the magnitude of adaptive immune responses to this novel coronavirus. That heterogeneity was observed in this study to be carried on into the immune memory phase to SARS-CoV-2. As a result of the immune response heterogeneity, as observed in the cohort here, it may be expected that at least a fraction of the SARS-CoV-2-infected population with particularly low immune memory would be susceptible to re-infection relatively quickly.
. . . .
Nevertheless, immune memory consisting of at least three immunological compartments was measurable in ~90% of subjects ≥ 5 months PSO, indicating that durable immunity against 2° COVID-19 disease is a possibility in most individuals. [emphasis added]
So my read is that in the timeline thus far examined (up to 6 months, which is limited but understandable) there is durability, but there's also really wide variance on the 'initial' level (I mean look at the charts, they're just giant clouds of datapoints when not connecting individuals' timelines). And we don't really know how well different levels of antibodies actually provide (or fail to provide) protection...
Overall, what this suggests to me is that we need to better understand the reason for (and distribution of!) that variance, and whether it can somewhat reliably track with protection against reinfection. Is it 10% of the population with insufficient immune response? 50%? 0.1%? Time will tell.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 20, 2020, 12:23:59 am
Post by: Reelya on November 20, 2020, 12:51:38 am
Think of it this way: it's a novel disease so we don't have many natural defenses for it, so it infects us easily.
But the flipside is also that it's a novel disease, so it also doesn't have many evolved ways to get around our natural defenses.
Influenza by contrast has been skirting our defenses for thousands of years, so it's a master shape-shifter compared to this virus.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 20, 2020, 02:38:15 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 20, 2020, 03:20:38 am
i'll give a quick take on the long-term immunity thing.I don't think it works like that
Think of it this way: it's a novel disease so we don't have many natural defenses for it, so it infects us easily.
But the flipside is also that it's a novel disease, so it also doesn't have many evolved ways to get around our natural defenses.
Influenza by contrast has been skirting our defenses for thousands of years, so it's a master shape-shifter compared to this virus.
Post by: Reelya on November 20, 2020, 03:24:45 am
The structure of a virus may also mean it's prone to different type of copying errors, or errors at certain locations and not others. That's the stuff I'm talking about.
Also, think about flu on a meta level. A successful flu virus wants to be at or near the genetic average of all viable flu viruses, such that as many possible mutations lead to viable flu viruses for that host. This maximizes the chance of that particular flu virus mutating into another viable strain that outraces the immune system, whereas viruses which are at or near the edge of the viable gene pool will tend to be weeded out. So as influenza viruses cycle back and forth through the population, any specific viruses that don't have many viable options for mutating to new strains which can outsmart the previous anti-bodies won't tend to replicate as much as ones which have many possible pathways. This would then influence the "meta design" of the virus itself, optimizing it for efficient shape-shifting (measured in : how many possible mutations lead to good variants vs shitty variants).
So there are meta-selection pressures at work, too, to create viruses for which many possible mutations lead to viable routes as possible.
EDIT: another point is about search space size. Natural selection is about optimizing a search space, so you get a fitness landscape, and the genome converges on the local maximum of the fitness function. Successfully evading defenses requires two things: first, there's a second local maximum you can move to which infects the person but evades existing antibodoes, and second, every in-between mutation between the current local maximum and the new local maximum must also be a viable mutation. So, influenza's "search space" may contain many local maximums all with robust mutations in between them that allow many pathways and many variations, and that's the reason it's so successful. However, none of that implies that all viruses have this quality. It could be that the "sweet spot" for the current coronavirus to operate on humans is relatively small and that there are other viable genomes it could use which evade the antibodies for the current one, but there are non-valid genomes in between both sets of mutations, meaning one cannot flip to the other through normal-sized mutation and selection.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 20, 2020, 03:38:23 am
Post by: Reelya on November 20, 2020, 05:45:34 am
This particular virus hasn't even been through the entire population once, so my argument is that it's extremely unlikely to be genetically near the potential sweet spot I'm talking about. For example if you bolt any old virus together that just spreads, then it's possible and more likely that if you make a couple of substitutions then you get some defective variant that is just hobbled. Not that influenza can't be randomly hobbled to, it's just that a virus that's been through the population 1000 times having to deal with humans over and over is far less likely to be a few substitutions away from gibberish.
Repeated selection would push any genome towards the mean, since genomes near the mean have the highest number of possible offspring who are viable. But this process would require the virus to have gone through the entire population more than once otherwise it's not actually selecting for ones that deal with an "aware" immune system, at all. Remember, influenza is already evolved to deal with humans who are riddled with influenza anti-bodies, then it was honed by 1000s of cycles back and forth through the same populations. That kind of thing really shapes a virus.
This specific coronavirus is currently only optimizing for dealing with "naive" immune systems which lack any relevant or similar anti-bodies at all, so it's not facing any of the selection pressures that have shaped influenza in a multi-generational sense. So, it's strongly optimizing, but for exploiting a resources which is by definition finite - humans with naive immune systems never exposed to this particular bug before. Once those run out, it's going to be very far from the optimal position.
If you consider influenza again, consider that search spaces for things like a genome, which is a string of data, are extremely large so the search space needs to be culled for future searches to be effective. Whatever the influenza genome is today, is shaped by previous information. There could be really crappy variants in the search space, and with that being so vast, merely not being as close to them in terms of information theory would give you a huge advantage for every future mutation's likelihood of turning decent.
Just bolting some random novel virus bits together may well not work so well at all purposes, it might spread well the first time but not be able to generate sufficiently different variants - in the right ways - to make a successful second run.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 20, 2020, 10:30:31 am
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6516/527 (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6516/527)
It is filled with admirable scientifc ifs, buts and maybes and also does a good job (imo) of canvasing the large variety of factors that come into play, as well as surveying much of the relevant scientific literature.
In case of tldr; have a quote from its end, as close to a definite conclusion as they are prepared to make:
Quote
A duration of immunity similar to that of the other betacoronaviruses (∼40 weeks) could lead to yearly outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2, whereas a longer immunity profile, coupled with a small degree of protective cross-immunity from other betacoronaviruses, could lead to the apparent elimination of the virus followed by resurgence after a few years.(Of course this is immediately followed by)
Quote
Other scenarios are, of course, possible, because there are many processes at play and much that remains unresolved.
Post by: martinuzz on December 02, 2020, 02:05:47 pm
I am starting to doubt if facemasks really help prevent deaths. I think they add to it.
I mean, just me peronally, I caused 5 deaths since I started wearing facemasks a month ago. Three elderly, a toddler and baby twins in a stroller. Accidentally ran them over and killed them with my bike, because I can't see shit when my glasses clog up from wearing a facemask.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 02, 2020, 02:17:26 pm
Post by: martinuzz on December 02, 2020, 02:22:05 pm
I really can't see shit though, have to bike real careful with less than 2m sight range.
I do think facemasks do more harm than good though. Ever since our government strongly advised again to wear them in public places, I have noticed that even though about 2/3ds of the supermarket shoppers wear them (100% now, since yesterday facemasks became mandatory), it seems as if nearly everybody has stopped using the hand-washer at the entrance. Before the facemasks, nearly everyone used it.
Seems like the facemasks make people think they can now be less careful with other measures. And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 02, 2020, 02:36:01 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 02, 2020, 03:19:36 pm
And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.
.... you think washing hands is more important than face masks WITH AN AIRBORNE DISEASE?
🙄
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 02, 2020, 03:20:43 pm
Duh. You think I'd be sitting here typing forum posts if it was for real?I'd just assume you'd have run over all the police trying in vain to stop the hordes of masked cyclebandits terrorising the streets
Post by: martinuzz on December 02, 2020, 03:58:55 pm
Yes, because it's not a mainly airborne transmission virus. If that were the case, like with measles for example, hospitals would know because it would have spread through all wards.And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.
.... you think washing hands is more important than face masks WITH AN AIRBORNE DISEASE?
🙄
Contact is still shown to be a more important transmission vector than air transmission. At least that's still the general concensus amongst goverenment advisors and national health department over here.
So yeah, washing hands is much more important than facemasks
Post by: Sirus on December 02, 2020, 04:05:35 pm
Like you said though, people are idiots and will do the bare minimum in the hopes that it will be all that is required.
Post by: martinuzz on December 02, 2020, 04:11:28 pm
And then I cannot but wonder if the facemasks aren't doing more harm than good.
Note that when going into lockdown with the first wave, no one over here wore face masks at all, and the wave was under control pretty quickly after that.
However now, in the second wave, everyone is wearing face masks, but this second wave is going down agonizingly slow.
Post by: Frumple on December 02, 2020, 04:26:32 pm
They're just pretty damn good shit for stopping an aerosol from getting to things you don't want it getting.
Post by: Starver on December 02, 2020, 05:07:47 pm
For wave-responsiveness, I suspect first-wave/first-lockdown was taken seriously (with far less baseline endemicism), so masklessness was more marginal, but familiarity breeding contempt the second-wave/second-lockdown (powered by a less trivial background chance of public transmission without being in a clinical situation or just in an unlucky hotspot) made masks far more useful. Upon those newly primed to cross-contaminate others. It's complicated.
Surprised nobody mentioned the UK's MHRA (~FDAish) having authorised public rollout of the Pfizer product for (theoretically, but see below) general use in the 16+ population. The equivalent pan-European body is still less sure about the safety adpects. And it seems we even surprised the Russians, who announced very soon after that Sputnik V (already lauded as 'safe' in a very early announcement) was going to be fully shipped.
Though I'm several levels down in the priority-list (a mix of age-groupings, front-linedness, situational risk and base-health risk) so I imagine I'm not even going to be potentially jabbed this side of Easter. By which time I might be more likely to get the Moderna version, the AstraZeneca one, or even one of the others that by then may have passed Phase III+...
[1] Like with a literal/onomatopeic gaggle of girls, the other day who may or may not have been interested in not taking up the whole path, but there was a wide bit of grass betwixt that and the road that there was no problem me shifting over onto as we crossed trajectories as the least total sum effort of accomodation.
[2] I've adopted a handy off-ears, on-wrist carrying position that takes little effort, if I'm liable to require it again and not entirely stuffing it away for the duratuon, and is reversible with a smooth two-step move (not counting the bridge-of-nose adjustment under my glasses to mitigate steaming up) as required.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 02, 2020, 05:19:53 pm
Post by: Starver on December 02, 2020, 05:24:42 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 02, 2020, 08:06:53 pm
You're mistakenYes, because it's not a mainly airborne transmission virus. If that were the case, like with measles for example, hospitals would know because it would have spread through all wards.And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.
.... you think washing hands is more important than face masks WITH AN AIRBORNE DISEASE?
🙄
Contact is still shown to be a more important transmission vector than air transmission. At least that's still the general concensus amongst goverenment advisors and national health department over here.
So yeah, washing hands is much more important than facemasks
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30514-2/fulltext
Quote
During the initial stages of the pandemic there was concern about surface transmission. However, latest research suggests that this is unlikely to be a major route of transmission as although SARS-CoV-2 can persist for days on inanimate surfaces, attempts to culture the virus from these surfaces were unsuccessfu
Quote
Infection control guidelines have stated that most respiratory virus transmission occurs from large infected droplets produced by coughing, sneezing, and breathing in close proximity to another person.
Quote
Initially it was thought that airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was unlikely, but growing evidence has highlighted that infective microdroplets are small enough to remain suspended in the air and expose individuals at distances beyond 2 m from an infected person. This knowledge is also corroborated by investigation of spread of cases between people who were not in direct or indirect contact, suggesting that airborne transmission was the most likely route.
Quote
In July, over 200 scientists published a statement calling for international bodies to recognise the potential for airborne spread of COVID-19 as they were concerned that people would not be fully protected by adhering to the current recommendations
Quote
Cases of transmission from people more than 2 m apart have occurred but in enclosed spaces with poor ventilation, and typically with extended exposure to an infected person of more than 30 min. The CDC have been clear to point out that most infections are spread through close contact and that airborne transmission is not the primary route of transmission.This is kind of just a sum-up of stuff that has been going around in circles for the last six months. The anti-mask mandate early on was a bad idea based just on scarcity. But as time has gone on the general opinion is that air transmission is far more important than others.
Whether droplet or airborne transmission is the main route, the risk of infection is known to be much lower outside where ventilation is better.
It's airborne. Most often from directly inhaling what other person coughs or spittles, sometimes through suspended aerosols
Masks are more important. It's not an either-or matter (honestly before all this I already thought the concept of "risk compensation" itself was kind of bullshitty ). But if you had to point at one measure over the other, masks are more important.
You gave an, I think, flawed example using hospitals (we can go into it if you like because to me it made absolutely no sense). But let me give you a better one: if people were getting the virus from touching surfaces, we'd get a lot of people infected at home from their supermarket groceries. Yet to my knowledge no such thing has happened. Main contagion is person to person. And to avoid that, first you need to keep physical distance, and you need to wear a mask. Washing hands is a good general hygiene measure, but by itself it falls short with covid
Post by: Rolan7 on December 02, 2020, 08:23:55 pm
There were early reports about Covid surviving on surfaces for like, 5 days or something, hence all the people disinfecting or quarantining their groceries (like me). But samples of it existing on a surface is not the same as catching airborne particulates from unmasked respiration in the eyeball. Not even coughing, just breathing.You're mistakenYes, because it's not a mainly airborne transmission virus. If that were the case, like with measles for example, hospitals would know because it would have spread through all wards.And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.
.... you think washing hands is more important than face masks WITH AN AIRBORNE DISEASE?
🙄
Contact is still shown to be a more important transmission vector than air transmission. At least that's still the general concensus amongst goverenment advisors and national health department over here.
So yeah, washing hands is much more important than facemasks
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30514-2/fulltextQuoteDuring the initial stages of the pandemic there was concern about surface transmission. However, latest research suggests that this is unlikely to be a major route of transmission as although SARS-CoV-2 can persist for days on inanimate surfaces, attempts to culture the virus from these surfaces were unsuccessfuQuoteInfection control guidelines have stated that most respiratory virus transmission occurs from large infected droplets produced by coughing, sneezing, and breathing in close proximity to another person.QuoteInitially it was thought that airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was unlikely, but growing evidence has highlighted that infective microdroplets are small enough to remain suspended in the air and expose individuals at distances beyond 2 m from an infected person. This knowledge is also corroborated by investigation of spread of cases between people who were not in direct or indirect contact, suggesting that airborne transmission was the most likely route.QuoteIn July, over 200 scientists published a statement calling for international bodies to recognise the potential for airborne spread of COVID-19 as they were concerned that people would not be fully protected by adhering to the current recommendationsQuoteCases of transmission from people more than 2 m apart have occurred but in enclosed spaces with poor ventilation, and typically with extended exposure to an infected person of more than 30 min. The CDC have been clear to point out that most infections are spread through close contact and that airborne transmission is not the primary route of transmission.This is kind of just a sum-up of stuff that has been going around in circles for the last six months. The anti-mask mandate early on was a bad idea based just on scarcity. But as time has gone on the general opinion is that air transmission is far more important than others.
Whether droplet or airborne transmission is the main route, the risk of infection is known to be much lower outside where ventilation is better.
It's airborne. Most often from directly inhaling what other person coughs or spittles, sometimes through suspended aerosols
Masks are more important. It's not an either-or matter (honestly before all this I already thought the concept of "risk compensation" itself was kind of bullshitty ). But if you had to point at one measure over the other, masks are more important.
You gave an, I think, flawed example using hospitals (we can go into it if you like because to me it made absolutely no sense). But let me give you a better one: if people were getting the virus from touching surfaces, we'd get a lot of people infected at home from their supermarket groceries. Yet to my knowledge no such thing has happened. Main contagion is person to person. And to avoid that, first you need to keep physical distance, and you need to wear a mask. Washing hands is a good general hygiene measure, but by itself it falls short with covid
Reality is gross.
(quoted because new page)
Post by: Max™ on December 03, 2020, 08:02:10 am
Masks reduce YOUR viral load going out, and they reduce THEIR viral load going in, giving everybody a reduced infection and saving lives. Washing hands is fine, but I don't care compared to simply fucking wearing a goddamn mask if you must go out, don't go out for fucking stupid bullshit like church or bars or fucking sports.
Post by: Iduno on December 03, 2020, 08:15:13 am
The problem isn't facemasks. The problem is that people are idiots. Other than total isolation and quarantine, the best way to avoid infection is to take multiple precautions. This includes masks, hand washing and/or sanitizing, and of course the ever-popular social distancing.
Like you said though, people are idiots and will do the bare minimum in the hopes that it will be all that is required.
People are doing the bare minimum where you are? Most people aren't taking any precautions here.
Also, I've met a few people now who seem to have caught COVID twice. The confirmed one's wife is a teacher, and they aren't being allowed to be safe.
Post by: Frumple on December 03, 2020, 08:21:12 am
From what I recall folks that get the knock down, drag out, welcome to vent hell treatment haven't been seeing reinfection, at least. Sort of the consolation prize for the permanent organ damage and losing weeks of their life to misery, I guess.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 03, 2020, 10:31:59 am
fucking sports.
Fucking sports?
Post by: Cthulhu on December 03, 2020, 11:59:43 am
Post by: scriver on December 03, 2020, 12:09:37 pm
Seems like the facemasks make people think they can now be less careful with other measures. And since washing hands >>>> facemasks, I do believe facemasks are more of a problem than a safety.
This is pretty much the argument for why Sweden's health dep aren't recommending masks. They're afraid a recommendation of masks are going to mean people stop caring about things like distancing and hand cleaning.
Post by: Eschar on December 04, 2020, 02:38:20 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on December 09, 2020, 11:15:11 am
And separately a second cluster of cases of lions contracting covid has been announced to have occurred at Barcelona zoo.
Post by: TamerVirus on December 09, 2020, 11:22:25 am
Hey remember when it was fringe internet weirdos freaking out and stocking up on food and masks while the main media narrative was that you shouldn't wear masksBut how about that flu, huh?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on December 09, 2020, 04:40:54 pm
This is not to say that something not encountered in thousands of trial-subjects[1] won't be shockingly common in the tens of millions of 'public rollout' doses, but I don't think you need to be too worried if you aren't already wary of such things. Especially with an overwhelming number of early doses necessarily being given in a major clinical environment where the cases that do arise are going to be spotted and treated so much more easily while the baseline on this latent risk is established.
[1] Who may have been selected/self-selected to be more than averagely unlikely to be allergically susceptible, but I'd be more worried if there was a possibility that a given part of the menstral cycle could be badly-reactive (which I doubt, in this case, but as illustration), because the odds are they didn't have enough female triallers to well establish any such cinnection/lack-thereof, yet that would be a vast number of the general population (increasing once it progresses down to lower-priority individuals, rather than the mix of front-line/otherise-vulnerable that's heavily loaded with the post-menopausal. ...Just to run through my thinking on this, it likely has no relevence to this case.
Post by: nenjin on December 09, 2020, 04:42:28 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on December 09, 2020, 05:21:35 pm
The reactions were pretty low level on the scale of things but I don't think they were a freak accident. It's not known (yet) whether the reaction was to a pre-existing antigen or a novel one. More details will emerge as they look into it. The risk level while certainly minor is yet to be established. And to be honest if this is the extent of the problems with the rollout of any given vaccine we'll be damn lucky given the pressure to release early to the 'market'.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 09, 2020, 05:26:37 pm
Post by: Starver on December 09, 2020, 06:38:07 pm
By the time I get asked to partake (indirectly, as I'm too low on the 'list' to be actively called in) it'll probable not even be the BioNTec thing, perhaps the Moderna, likely (as of current info) the AstraZeneca, but by then we'll surely have other candidates like Janssen, Novavax or Valneva (if not Moscow's Gamaleya or any of Beijing's various ones like they're also giving to the UAE). If anyone here is much higher priority than me, I wouldn't suggest that this is concerningly low data, as being a higher priority already means it's more important they offset the risks of the unmitigated Covid first.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 10, 2020, 02:30:34 am
Their 90%-70% efficacy claim is spurious because the former comes from a subgroup analysis (which back in med school was the kind of thing our epidemiology teacher underlined as a mistake*) and the later comes from averaging the real 62% result with the spurious subgroup analysis (which doesn't make any sense).
*basically the problem is that in any study if you're willing to narrow it down enough you'll always find some subgroup that seems to achieve the effect you want, by random chance. But selling this as a real result is little better than drawing a target over a random cluster of shots. What you need to do instead is design a new trial aiming to prove the results that subgroup seemed to achieve.... which is EXACTLY what AZ did after the bombastic announcement of the efficacy of their vaccine.
Tbh if we had nothing else the 62% would be a "better than nothing" result. It's not a failure per se. Its just that at least at this point the others seem better...
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 10, 2020, 05:28:08 am
Save yourselves.
Post by: wierd on December 10, 2020, 06:43:12 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 10, 2020, 06:49:56 am
Once you ICUs are full, you are in for hell on earth.
We got close over here to the same thing happening, but we managed to flatten the curve just in time.
What we needed to do for that:
- Work from home unless that is utterly impossible.
- Close the airports.
- Close the schools and daycare, children stay home, period. Employers are forced by law to not fire people that have to stay home to watch the kids. (Over here businesses that fired people could not apply for government support)
- Close the 'contact professions' like hairdressers, nail saloons, fysiotherapy etc.
- Close gyms / sportschools.
- Close theatres / musea / other public places.
- Close the bars/pubs/restaurants.
- Close the churches, mosques, synagogues and various other places of worship.
- Restrict public transportation to take less people per train / bus so people can social distance.
- Disallow visitors on weddings and funerals.
- If that isn't enough, you can also still close all retail except supermarkets. We didn't need to do that here though.
Note that this requires the government to spend many billions on compensation for businesses and employees. Over here, the general rule is that companies get 90% of their wages refunded by the government as long as they can show their earnings are down by a certain percentage (and they don't fire people).
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 10, 2020, 06:54:34 am
Hence, save yourselves. Wider society in America isn't going to respond any more than it has. I'm just glad I live under a Democratic governor, at least until SCOTUS inevitably nullifies all his public health measures too.
On the bright side, there's almost no public transportation to be shut down in the first place.
Post by: martinuzz on December 10, 2020, 06:58:05 am
Secularism works both ways. Freedom of religious convention yadda yadda.
We are in a second lockdown now, and our prime minister specifically stated that places of worship are exempt from group size restrictions and face masks.
Oh the world would be such a better place if we could get rid of religions... Where is Stalin when we need him /s
Our other mistake right now is that the government decided not to close the schools. With the first lockdown, we went from nearly completely full ICUs to zero people on ICU in about a month. Right now, after nearly two months of lockdown, the curve isn't flattening as fast as we'd like and there's still about 50% ICU capacity used for corona patients.
Post by: Bumber on December 10, 2020, 07:46:09 am
Potential COVID antibodies found in blood samples taken in Italy back in September 2019. For the USA, a different study found some in blood donations taken in December 2019.
Hoping to never hear the word "hydroxychloroquine" again? Too bad. This study is claiming use of HCQ decreased rate of hospitalization by 84%. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920304258)
Post by: Starver on December 10, 2020, 10:56:00 am
Tbh if we had nothing else the 62% would be a "better than nothing" result. It's not a failure per se. Its just that at least at this point the others seem better...I give it a chance to be 'my' dose, at some point between now and this time next year, for two main reasons:
- Those coldchain issues are less intensive than the BNT/etc, an issue we identified early on[1]
- The vastly higher number of doses already pre-paid for by the UK government[2] which, in light of other political dealings, is likely to send us down an 'in for a penny, in for a pound' route even if it's not the ideal resolution.
But that's just my mental musings on the current situation. I'm quite sure that by the time this resolves unto my lowly priority much of my above reasoning will be overturned, even without your quite reasonable additional clinical clincher which I accept. ;)
(Interestingly, as well, there has been state-sponsored (<-highly suspected to be that, at least) hacking of the Pfizer study info as submitted onto (I think it was) the EMA servers, recently reported. Added to other incidents like the earlier spearphishing attack on worldwide coldchain companies and the prior invasion of data in various vaccine developers at an early stage, I suspect that there may be concerns about all kinds of things from unlevel playing-fields during the initial rush to develop to future possible selective data-dumps aimed at skewing public opinion. I'm far more sure that this will emerge as 'a thing' than any particular manufacturer will be behind my own shot in the arm, if I ever get one... )
[1] I think Gamaleya needs only fridge tech, in its portable form, but ruling that out for obvious reasons.
[2] Also it's a Oxford Uni, thing whether that drove that initial decision to pre-fund that way or will take part in the final national decision.
Post by: Iduno on December 10, 2020, 04:39:12 pm
You guys really need nation-wide policies right now.
Once you ICUs are full, you are in for hell on earth.
I'm in one of the worst parts of the US, and hospitals have been at capacity for a while now, which means new patients from Thanksgiving can wait in line for someone to die or recover enough to get kicked out so they can be seen.
I don't think people realize that means that any health problem that won't kill you today won't get addressed. Things like cancer, broken bones, etc. won't get you in to see a doctor when the hospital is full. Just walk it off. Not to mention mental health and chronic pain issues. And numbers are going to get worse at the end of the month.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 10, 2020, 04:58:58 pm
Word is that it´s due to people coming back for Xmas
around 50.000 are expected. So cases grow.
Also Ireland has less covid than most of Europe but on the flip side it doesnt take much to collapse Irish ICUs
Post by: Vector on December 10, 2020, 06:46:23 pm
Be strong, everyone.
Post by: Frumple on December 10, 2020, 07:06:10 pm
... also wish like hell zero in-person contact outside of the other folks living with me was an option that didn't also involve being homeless. If the ones letting me stay here hadn't said they'd kick me out if I quit work I would have apologized to my boss and ditched months ago, before my local area spiked to the highest rates it's seen this year :-\
Post by: Frumple on December 10, 2020, 11:34:53 pm
Lot are hanging in there, but I can just about guarantee you when the plague actually lets up you're going to see massive expression of burnout; people fleeing the professions involved, spikes in suicide rates (iirc already showing :-\), and so on. It's already ugly as hell, and relief ain't for a long time yet.
Post by: Vector on December 11, 2020, 12:18:25 am
Anyway . . . I feel really lucky that I can stay home, even living alone, but I'll admit that the mental wear and tear has been pretty bad so far.
Post by: wierd on December 11, 2020, 12:27:59 am
Learn from home gives the education portion (with varying degrees of success), but does not cover the daycare portion, and that is making parents very insane/stressed.
The fact that certain political figures are treating this international emergency like a game of political football, trying to score points--- rather than actually putting that shit down, and working toward the common collective goal of preventing the worlds population getting nuked from orbit, and then having the surviving demographic have a decidedly non-zero fraction that has long lasting health problems from the pandemic, which will be with us for DECADES to come--- means that people are strapped for cash (because "They would make more on unemployment than being employed!!!! HORROR!!!!", and "Big companies need to be shielded from the legal liabilities of forcing people to come to work in the middle of this international healthcare emergency, because THE MONEY HAS TO BE MADE! FUCK HUMAN LIFE! No Covid relief until corporations can run roughshod over the populace!!"), cannot afford to lose any income at all, and thus have zero resources to deal with the stay at home requirements.
They are naturally angry and frustrated by this, but are venting at the wrong people.
It's not the educators that they should be angry with, it's the likes of Lich McConnell, holding up the necessary support they need to be able to stay home without all the financial stresses on top of the normal ones you get when trapped in a house with rambunctious kids.
Post by: martinuzz on December 11, 2020, 10:38:53 am
I mean, for some jobs, I guess it's possible to bring your kids to work when schools close. But there are many workplaces where that simply isn't possible.
Examples:
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was terrifying. I went to dad's workplace at the slaughterhouse and watched screaming panicking pigs covered in blood being thrown into boiling water alive"
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was horrible! I went with mom to her workplace, she moderates facebook for unwanted posts. We watched kiddy porn together all day there"
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 11, 2020, 11:32:44 am
Dependence on daycare is indeed an issue we're facing right now. But how should that be fixed? Force all women to quit their jobs and chain them to the kitchen so they can watch the kids?
I mean, for some jobs, I guess it's possible to bring your kids to work when schools close. But there are many workplaces where that simply isn't possible.
Examples:
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was terrifying. I went to dad's workplace at the slaughterhouse and watched screaming panicking pigs covered in blood being thrown into boiling water alive"
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was horrible! I went with mom to her workplace, she moderates facebook for unwanted posts. We watched kiddy porn together all day there"
Ideally a dual income wouldn't be mandatory to provide for a family.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 11, 2020, 12:25:16 pm
Dependence on daycare is indeed an issue we're facing right now. But how should that be fixed? Force all women to quit their jobs and chain them to the kitchen so they can watch the kids?I think those would be really binding parent-child experiences
I mean, for some jobs, I guess it's possible to bring your kids to work when schools close. But there are many workplaces where that simply isn't possible.
Examples:
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was terrifying. I went to dad's workplace at the slaughterhouse and watched screaming panicking pigs covered in blood being thrown into boiling water alive"
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was horrible! I went with mom to her workplace, she moderates facebook for unwanted posts. We watched kiddy porn together all day there"
Post by: Eschar on December 11, 2020, 06:38:11 pm
Post by: wierd on December 12, 2020, 01:02:39 am
Dependence on daycare is indeed an issue we're facing right now. But how should that be fixed? Force all women to quit their jobs and chain them to the kitchen so they can watch the kids?
I mean, for some jobs, I guess it's possible to bring your kids to work when schools close. But there are many workplaces where that simply isn't possible.
Examples:
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was terrifying. I went to dad's workplace at the slaughterhouse and watched screaming panicking pigs covered in blood being thrown into boiling water alive"
"hey junior, how was your day?"
"it was horrible! I went with mom to her workplace, she moderates facebook for unwanted posts. We watched kiddy porn together all day there"
Ideally a dual income wouldn't be mandatory to provide for a family.
Further, the notion that it must be the WOMAN who stays home is obsolete, and needs to be trashbinned. House-husbands are totally a thing, and many studies have shown men are just as capable as women as childcare providers.
It's just a hotbutton for feminist support bandwagon summoning to insist that it must always be the woman who stays home. Feminisim has made sufficient inroads that this is not the case-- House husbands are a thing now.
Update your rhetoric.
Whoever makes the most money should continue working, and the other should pick up the slack.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 12, 2020, 01:41:16 am
House husbands are a thing now.
Barely? Assuming they even pay your household enough to run with one income, men are still barely perceived as even capable of basic housekeeping, much less giving a shit about offspring. Media still portrays dads as borderline braindead. A dad taking care of their kids is going to get jokes about how their "babysitting" their kids "so the mom can take a break" instead of doing the basic job of being a parent.
Post by: wierd on December 12, 2020, 02:49:04 am
Parents will do whatever makes the most sense in their specific situations. Especially when there are very real financial crunches.
this is HOW it becomes mainstream.
Post by: McTraveller on December 12, 2020, 08:51:24 am
Most of this I put on the finance system - if it was not so difficult or expensive to refinance a property, rents/mortgages could change price much faster in response to economic shocks, allowing people to stay in their homes. I think this is probably the lynchpin to it all, because if everyone in the society stops being afraid of losing their homes - typically the highest "fixed" expense in most people's budgets, then they would perhaps be more willing to have their salary / wage change in more realtime to deal with economic shocks than we are today.
You gain economic stability by building in margin, not by having a government willing to print money. This is not to say that printing money may not be necessary as a last resort, but it really should be a last resort.
Now, how to build in a margin - in hospital capacity, in housing, in education - that's what I want to see us do after we get through the next 12 months. And not just in the US, but worldwide... there is just no margin any more.
The trick will be how to build those margins in without making it too cost prohibitive - you don't want to charge people money for not having money (that's a huge source of many societal woes, but that's for a different thread...).
Post by: Starver on December 12, 2020, 10:06:41 am
Maybe you can discount the "family of sixteen who have never ever worked given all-inclusive accomodation worth a million" and the "single mother works five jobs and struggling to pay both food and heating bills" as outlying failures of the system that need sorting out, but the middle-ground balance is probably also skewed.
[1] The problem, it seems to me, is that when people are earning more on 'unemployment' than if employed, it's because wages for jobs are too stingy, not that the benefit is too generous. The government involved in providing such relief for sure isn't likely to be two or three times overgenerous for a standard case, yet we're frequently met with the idea that those who are avoiding such reliance (or otherwise excluded from it) are taking on two or three simultaneous careers. Even if that's because it's a fraction of a working day each, those who end up doing enough fractions to end up as a whole would surely be better in a single (flexible to needs) whole-day position if they prefered rather than effectively sharing N whole jobs between roughly N people effectively working for the whole working day, even if that means the employer can't get exemptions to mandatory in-work benefits (sick-pay, holidays, etc) they would normally be required to give.
Post by: wierd on December 12, 2020, 01:34:59 pm
The difficulty is in how exactly to change the narrative in a practical way. For a short period of time, when the two-breadwinner household first started, those households that could do that saw a massive increase in income. The sad reality, though, is that over time the general economy came to absorb that extra income so that now the "important" things have priced in that second income. "Important" things being housing, health care, utilities, transportation, and education. Those items have prices that increase rapidly but decline slowly; markedly different from commodities like food, clothing, and gasoline. Put another way: when demand for food / clothing / luxuries / gasoline drops, the price drops almost immediately. So when people have income-altering events, prices for food and such tend to change rapidly. Housing, education, and healthcare though - well those prices tend to be locked in.
Most of this I put on the finance system - if it was not so difficult or expensive to refinance a property, rents/mortgages could change price much faster in response to economic shocks, allowing people to stay in their homes. I think this is probably the lynchpin to it all, because if everyone in the society stops being afraid of losing their homes - typically the highest "fixed" expense in most people's budgets, then they would perhaps be more willing to have their salary / wage change in more realtime to deal with economic shocks than we are today.
You gain economic stability by building in margin, not by having a government willing to print money. This is not to say that printing money may not be necessary as a last resort, but it really should be a last resort.
Now, how to build in a margin - in hospital capacity, in housing, in education - that's what I want to see us do after we get through the next 12 months. And not just in the US, but worldwide... there is just no margin any more.
The trick will be how to build those margins in without making it too cost prohibitive - you don't want to charge people money for not having money (that's a huge source of many societal woes, but that's for a different thread...).
The issue, is that margins are "Lost opportunity". If people save money, (eg, create a margin for themselves), then that is money that a retailer feels that they could be extracting.
There are only so many ways to assure that people are able to successfully develop and maintain such margins;
1) Mandate it by law, and impose wage garnishments to accomplish it. (with special support systems for the impoverished)
2) Apply downward pressure on the economy by setting artificial price caps (Capitalists especially hate this.)
3) Probably the least effective-- Impose a different restriction on retailers to limit their advertising presence, so that people are not being actively mind-controlled into blowing money inappropriately. (eg, reduce pressure to "keep up with the Jones's)
4) Provide some form of tax incentive for people who create such margins for themselves, that has real benefits.
Or, some combination of the above.
Laisez Fair capitalism of course, DESPISES all of them, because ALL of them will prevent the capitalist from extracting that "lost opportunity".
Post by: JoshuaFH on December 12, 2020, 01:47:11 pm
Post by: McTraveller on December 12, 2020, 02:38:00 pm
The other thing is to seriously start promoting laws that severely limit rent-seeking.
(Incidentally, this is one reason I don't like the word "insurance" in "health insurance." Yeah part of it is catastrophic event coverage, but the rest of its uses is markedly different from what insurance is supposed to do, and we really could separate them.)
Post by: Frumple on December 12, 2020, 03:37:46 pm
"But wierd," says the Capitalist, "how am I supposed to afford my mega yacht, a yacht so big it doubles as a floating pier for my smaller yachts, if I can't extort the working class for every penny in their pocket and every pained drop of sweat from their brow? Surely God intended for me to have my mega yacht, and therefore I'm entitled to exploit to my heart's content, surely.""How are you still talking, Capitalist," wierd mutters bemusedly, working to dismantle a mega yacht into smaller, less wasteful ships, "after being cooked and eaten? This is the most vocal indigestion I've ever had!"
Post by: feelotraveller on December 12, 2020, 03:47:50 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924)
In a bit of an overstatement the article opens with:
Quote
Nearly two-thirds of Australians say they would support the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI), according to a new poll.
Personally I think the political class has missed a huge opportunity to more to a UBI during the coronavirus epidemic, since the economy is already disrupted the opportunity cost of the transition is much much lower.
It should be noted that those groups that are most strongly opposed to UBI include (or are basically) the politicians, journalists and business people which is why despite decent popular support it is consistently trashed as an idea.
Post by: Akura on December 13, 2020, 08:56:55 am
Post by: Frumple on December 13, 2020, 09:14:49 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 13, 2020, 10:05:22 am
People are selling them (or copper threaded masks, anyway), at least, so...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwy-h1aisbE
Here's a possibly stupid idea: if I were to make mesh of thin copper wire and put it on the outside of a mask, would it improve the mask's protective capabilities?
Now seriously, why would it do anything?
Post by: wierd on December 13, 2020, 10:20:57 am
Oh who am I kidding-- It's straight up a marketing gimmick. Same as magnets and the like in socks or gloves.
Now, a proper, disposable n95 surgical mask, that works. (when properly used.)
Post by: Teneb on December 13, 2020, 10:22:10 am
Post by: wierd on December 13, 2020, 10:23:45 am
Post by: Jopax on December 13, 2020, 10:29:58 am
Post by: Eschar on December 13, 2020, 01:10:07 pm
It is electrostatic, and attracts the neutrally charged viral particles, and makes them stick to the fabric
...how are neutral particles going to be affected by electrostatic, much less attracted by it?
Post by: Starver on December 13, 2020, 01:58:38 pm
Those +2 Cations could somehow, maybe, render the viral capsids incapable of attaching to your delicate mucousa!Tin can be +4. So can lead.
So solder some pewter into your mask and you'd be even safer!
Post by: Rolan7 on December 13, 2020, 02:06:02 pm
: D
Post by: Ziusudra on December 13, 2020, 02:15:04 pm
Electrostatic induction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrostatic_induction) causes neutral particles to be attracted to charges.It is electrostatic, and attracts the neutrally charged viral particles, and makes them stick to the fabric
...how are neutral particles going to be affected by electrostatic, much less attracted by it?
Post by: Starver on December 13, 2020, 02:18:20 pm
The serious answer: Neutral particles still have charges, just balanced in the sum of all components. Even a neutron has a charge distribution 'within' it, and an intense(/close) enough charge gradient across it can attract one charge more than it repels the opposite bit. One of the models used for neutrons suggests that, albeit secondary to the nuclear force, the negative 'skin' helps to join it to the protons in a nucleus.It is electrostatic, and attracts the neutrally charged viral particles, and makes them stick to the fabric(Shifted this bit of quote - Starver)
...how are neutral particles going to be affected by electrostatic, much less attracted by it?
(Similar to unmagnetised metal (i.e. with no overall coherent magnetic domains as per ferromagnetism) can respond to a suitably crafted external magnetic field by aligning, paramagnetically. And/or induced electrical eddies.)
Ah, slightly ninjaed.
Post by: Eschar on December 13, 2020, 04:08:32 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on December 13, 2020, 05:05:46 pm
Post by: martinuzz on December 14, 2020, 04:31:11 am
My cats will have a nice and quiet New Year's eve for once.
Post by: King Zultan on December 14, 2020, 05:53:20 am
But would I be safer if I wore a solid lead plague doctor's mask?Those +2 Cations could somehow, maybe, render the viral capsids incapable of attaching to your delicate mucousa!Tin can be +4. So can lead.
So solder some pewter into your mask and you'd be even safer!
Post by: Mech#4 on December 14, 2020, 07:09:51 am
But would I be safer if I wore a solid lead plague doctor's mask?Those +2 Cations could somehow, maybe, render the viral capsids incapable of attaching to your delicate mucousa!Tin can be +4. So can lead.
So solder some pewter into your mask and you'd be even safer!
You'd probably get a rather sore neck.
Post by: martinuzz on December 14, 2020, 08:31:14 am
It is expected that all non-essential shops will be closed, primary schools and highschools will shut down, and the few cultural venues that weren't closed yet, like musea and theatres, will be closed too.
They should have done that sooner.
Post by: martinuzz on December 14, 2020, 12:15:06 pm
Our government didn't really think things through it seems.
Stores will close, so people are going to order online en masse..... but.... most package delicery points are inside the stores that are closed, and the supermarkets do not have the storage capacity to take that all on.
Post by: TamerVirus on December 14, 2020, 12:21:31 pm
Obviously people still won't get it because it comes with complementary mind control 5G nanobots from Lizardman Bill Gates or something
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 14, 2020, 12:34:14 pm
Vaccines are being deployed out to frontline workers what with the governor making a big show with a nurse getting the jabHonestly, at this point I'd take the vaccine even if the excipient list openly displayed 5g mind control nanobots AND the only way to administer it was via lizardman sex
Obviously people still won't get it because it comes with complementary mind control 5G nanobots from Lizardman Bill Gates or something
Post by: wierd on December 14, 2020, 01:45:57 pm
Even if the vaccine causes straight up sterility, it would not impact me personally in a meaningful way, since I am asexual anyway.
Give me the damn vaccine. I need to see a dentist. If both myself, and the dentist are both vaccinated, it makes it safe (enough) for me to go get the care I need, so I can continue to provide care to others that need it.
Post by: Starver on December 14, 2020, 02:48:11 pm
[1] The one with half-strength first dose[2] seemingly pushing it up to ~90%, though double-full-strength is just 70%...
[2] There's precedence for this, BTW. Early anti-cholera attempts found attenuated then exalted injections gave the best immune response in some circumstances, albeit that was bacterial and not pure molar quantities of annidentical thing being stepped up.
[3] US: "strap and suspenders"? But that sounds kinky to my British ears... ;D
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 14, 2020, 03:20:22 pm
Post by: martinuzz on December 14, 2020, 04:51:02 pm
Post by: Starver on December 14, 2020, 07:29:37 pm
Do you think she thinks he's a 'keeper', when everything else has settled down?
Post by: martinuzz on December 14, 2020, 07:36:27 pm
I guess he's lucky that it's 2020 though. In 2021 he would have been shot when trying to make landfall if he survived the sea mines.
Post by: feelotraveller on December 15, 2020, 05:12:55 pm
Quote
The changes or mutations involve the spike protein of the virus - the part that helps it infect cells, and the target Covid vaccines are designed around.
Post by: hector13 on December 15, 2020, 05:24:03 pm
Interesting times ahead.
Post by: Starver on December 15, 2020, 10:04:25 pm
Coronavirii(??) were always supposed to be that much less mutable than the various influenzae(!!) but we already had enough variation to confirm US outbreaks mostly came via Europe. It's inevitable that something will change in the spikes at some point. When a rare "vaccine-breaking" mutation occurs and is tested against said vaccines, then inevitabltly there'll be a selective pressure against the original and for the "Covid-21"[1]. So long as that's not a co-mutation with any other aspect (that makes it more 'violent', case-by-case) then we're no worse off. With the various different countering vaccine methods being used, it might even give a smaller player in that game a boon when their solution continues to work even while Pfizer/whoever has to 'retool' their mRNA product (not difficult, but will need a little bit of effort). And a spectrum of products (perhaps in the same individuals) can probably quash such viral developments.
It'll be 'fun' learning the ins and outs of this. Gearing up the current worldwide (aspirationally!) rollout to be flexible/prismatic like that. I don't necessarily see it going that way, even, but even less so deepening the downward spiral. At least where the spiral is trying to be raised back up into the light again.
A number of other news items passed, that I expected to be mentioned over the last few days. Like wild mink in the US (somewhere in the boondocks, but can't remember where without scrolling back on the news site) seem to have caught the zeitgeist on Covid (unlikely to have come via the Danish/Dutch farmed mink, but I assume there's a backwoods mink farmer in the midwest who repeated the human-to-animal transmission, then had the inevitable escapees[2] to link that to the wild pop.) - Not sure what impact that'll have on 'natural' reservoirs for the virus, but sounds like it's a potential beachhead.
[1] Ok, so it probably won't be different enough from the current SARS-CoV-2, but maybe it'll be sub-typed, perhaps "Covid-19-ffs" or "-wth"
[2] Or releasees, depending on the mink-farmer/nerf-herder involved.
Post by: feelotraveller on December 16, 2020, 05:12:23 pm
[1] Ok, so it probably won't be different enough from the current SARS-CoV-2, but maybe it'll be sub-typed, perhaps "Covid-19-ffs" or "-wth"
:)
For now it is being called VUI – 202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation, month put under investigation and the first case to be done so in that/this month). Expect it to get a proper name down the track, plus a solid nickname if it turns out to be clinically significant. But it will be a 'strain' 'variant' 'mutation' or perhaps indeed aspire to the lofty heights of a 'sub-type' of SARS-CoV-2/Covid-19.
Post by: wierd on December 17, 2020, 03:06:22 am
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/we-want-them-infected-trump-hhs-appointee-said-in-email-pushing-to-expose-infants-kids-and-teens-to-covid.html
Post by: martinuzz on December 17, 2020, 04:32:42 am
Post by: delphonso on December 17, 2020, 07:20:31 pm
What's the punishment for inciting child mass murder nowadays?
A permanent consultation position with a good salary, unfortunately
Post by: Rolan7 on December 17, 2020, 07:28:23 pm
A Moderate ProposalWhat's the punishment for inciting child mass murder nowadays?
A permanent consultation position with a good salary, unfortunately
Post by: Vector on December 18, 2020, 04:13:33 pm
This is very "local politics," but despite being at less than 15% ICU bed capacity, someone recently had the audacity to write this (https://www.berkeleyside.com/2020/12/14/opinion-berkeley-teachers-should-speak-up-to-reopen-schools) Opinion letter demanding that schools reopen because "COVID-19 poses limited risk to children."
I'm annoyed. I support working on a solution for children of parents who must work outside the home. The second comment currently on the article is quite good, I feel. The safest place for children is in school, for sure. But demanding that school resume at the top of the biggest infection peak of this pandemic, right before the Christmas/New Year's double header, is irresponsible. They are already recruiting college students as emergency teachers because we have a shortage right now. Unfortunately, I can tell you from painful experience that being a skilled teacher has a steep learning curve. It is not a job that you can do to spec with a college degree and warm body. There is a lot of specialized and subject-specific knowledge required.
On a personal level I want to add that one of the reasons why I stopped teaching was due to new, yearly mandated trainings on how to respond to school shooters. The training involves, among other things, listening to different sounds and ruling them in or out as gunfire vs. not gunfire. As someone who spent my early childhood in a rough neighborhood, I already know what gunfire sounds like, and in fact, I hit the ground when I hear cars backfiring. I understand and accept risk in my life but had 2-3 of my own students expelled due to a "credible threat" a few years ago. It annoys me that we are now being asked to die on the job.
Actually, we were also told that if there was a major disaster, we were all expected to stay on campus with our students, possibly for multiple days, and would not be permitted to care for our own children. We were told that this is what having an in loco parentis responsibility meant. There was not negotiation available to meet the needs of, say, single parents.
Yes, there are other dangerous professions. Obviously. I am annoyed in part because the patriarchal order is supposedly in place in part because men are being signed up for the dangerous jobs, and thus incurring respect and better pay. It is frustrating that now that the chips are down, the strapped, under-paid female-dominated profession of teaching is being told "all this, and also, we expect you to risk being shot or dying of infectious disease for the benefit of others' children."
Every teacher knows how fast a disease goes through a school.
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 18, 2020, 04:18:25 pm
As for Covid - the general atmos is that we are expendable, as long as the economic wheels keep turning.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 18, 2020, 04:27:42 pm
You don´t say
As for Covid - the general atmos is that we are expendable, as long as the economic wheels keep turning.
(https://dl.img-news.com/dl/img/s2/dl/2020/04/27208530-8220279-image-a-31_1586931676758.jpg)
Mind you, I was not working during the horrible ppe shortages in March. Where I am there is no shortage right now, I think (I still buy my own PPE just to be able to field better masks full time though). But you do feel when push comes to shove they treated us as expendables. Improvised PPE was bullshit. No PPE orders to "avoid panic" earlier on were even more bullshit.
My former boss was subject to one such and caught covid. I´m surprised he obeyed TBH. I´d have refused to work without a mask on. Period. It´s easier to leave the unemployment office than ICU
Post by: Vector on December 18, 2020, 04:54:39 pm
Post by: scriver on December 18, 2020, 05:29:15 pm
in loco parentis
I guess this means something like "parents in the location" but all I see is "crazy parents"
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 18, 2020, 05:31:52 pm
Isn't it legal to deny medical care to anyone in the US unless it's an emergency?in loco parentis
I guess this means something like "parents in the location" but all I see is "crazy parents"
Basically means "In place of parents", and describes the legal standing of we teachers - in short, we have the rights and responsibilities of parents under law when pupils are in our care.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 18, 2020, 05:34:22 pm
We won't treat them like heroes, but we'll make it a propaganda moment anyways. Just like war vets.
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 18, 2020, 05:36:41 pm
our HEROES, people
We won't treat them like heroes, but we'll make it a propaganda moment anyways. Just like war vets.
Rememer to go out and fucking clap, people.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 18, 2020, 05:37:08 pm
SCOTUS ruled in a case recently that discrimination against orientation or gender identity is necessarily sex discrimination, and it was even 6-3 so Barrett being on the court shouldn't change anything there, but it has yet to be applied explicitly to medical care. You might say that it's "pre-illegal" right now.
Not that any of this matters if you don't have the $$$.
Post by: Vector on December 18, 2020, 05:39:30 pm
Essentially, it's an erasure of "duty of care." Like the "no obligation to make a cake for a gay wedding" or "no requirement to offer an abortion if you feel it is against your religious beliefs" thing. No obligation to screen your trans patient for heart disease.
Generally the norm is "if you have money & a problem they are supposed to treat you." Now we have another axis on which it is legal to deny care.
Post by: Starver on December 18, 2020, 05:54:03 pm
And then raised (all of?) London to Tier 3 (highest English restrictions) insofar as general retail/etc. And now there are, I think, government plans to get get English schools to split-shift online/attendence schooling in the new year - but I'm not sure where that stands as obviously they're all over the place and what I heard yesterday, or even this morning, may now be out of date.
(Could I plan it better? Maybe not. But I would be hard pressed not to look so wobbly while trying to. Even though I often claim that I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.)
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 18, 2020, 05:58:55 pm
Some of the London local councils, including Greenwich (yes, as in Mean Time), wanted/planned to send its schools into 'online' learning mode in the lead-up to Christmas. The government overruled them (I think threatened legal action) and the decision was reversed. Another such local council said it was thinking of it, even as the former withdrew, but I think nowhere
And then raised (all of?) London to Tier 3 (highest English restrictions) insofar as general retail/etc. And now there are, I think, government plans to get get English schools to split-shift online/attendence schooling in the new year - but I'm not sure where that stands as obviously they're all over the place and what I heard yesterday, or even this morning, may now be out of date.
(Could I plan it better? Maybe not. But I would be hard pressed not to look so wobbly while trying to. Even though I often claim that I used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.)
Don't forget the last minute announcement that teaching staff in UK schools are going to be expected to administer mass lateral flow testing to identify asymptomatic spreaders (alongside actually, you know, teaching), starting in the new year.
Post by: Starver on December 18, 2020, 07:14:33 pm
[1] So long as Dido isn't involved...
Post by: Iduno on December 19, 2020, 03:12:56 pm
They had to know how that doctor looks, right? Even amateur photographers know not to take pictures with things behind people, and white flags aren't exactly common.
Isn't it legal to deny medical care to anyone in the US unless it's an emergency?
The opposite. Hospitals aren't required to do anything unless it's an emergency. Poor people often get thrown out as soon as they're no longer categorized as dying.
Post by: Caz on December 19, 2020, 06:10:07 pm
The opposite. Hospitals aren't required to do anything unless it's an emergency. Poor people often get thrown out as soon as they're no longer categorized as dying.
America terrifies me. I heard recent story of some guy who died because he couldn't afford insulin.
Post by: Frumple on December 19, 2020, 06:29:21 pm
It happens a fairly noticeable amount, aye. Insulin is wildly marked up in the US, by and large, so if whatever reason you don't have insurance and can't afford however much monthly the insulin costs (which can easily be three digits), and well... rip.
The opposite. Hospitals aren't required to do anything unless it's an emergency. Poor people often get thrown out as soon as they're no longer categorized as dying.
America terrifies me. I heard recent story of some guy who died because he couldn't afford insulin.
Post by: Caz on December 19, 2020, 06:58:28 pm
It happens a fairly noticeable amount, aye. Insulin is wildly marked up in the US, by and large, so if whatever reason you don't have insurance and can't afford however much monthly the insulin costs (which can easily be three digits), and well... rip.
The opposite. Hospitals aren't required to do anything unless it's an emergency. Poor people often get thrown out as soon as they're no longer categorized as dying.
America terrifies me. I heard recent story of some guy who died because he couldn't afford insulin.
Here insulin is the wild price of 'free'... and our government still spends less $ per capita on public healthcare than the USA... :X
Post by: Starver on December 19, 2020, 07:59:36 pm
Spoiler: US Healthcare 'experience' (click to show/hide)
Oh, yeah, anyway, no-one has mentioned that Boris Johnson invented a Tier 4 Lockdown (not sure how it compares to the Scottish one, but I bet it's different[1], 'cos Boris) for all of London and a large part of the surrounding South-East/almost-South-East (and Peterborough, apparently, up into the English midlands), which effectively "cancels their Christmas". No meeting of more than one person outside. No household mixing. No Christmas 'relaxation'. (Which has been unrelaxed even for the other English version of Tiers from five days across Christmas down to a single one of up to ?three? households co-bubbling in one or other of their houses.)
Charitably, perhaps the reason that as recently as the middle of the week he was saying "We're relaxing the rules around Christmas, but expect you to be sensible about it" is that he knew he'd have to react like this to the Covid-19-FFS (now apparently 70ish% more transmissable!) but if he announced restrictions to be applied to the traditional "a week on Thursday" he'd have everyone trying to beat the barricades and jam the stations. This way he has slammed it down
But I think he's just making it up as he goes along, and realised that today's decision couldn't be done a Week On Thursday, because that'd now be New Year's Eve and the Christmas mixing would go ahead even more intensely.
Scotland's not even using any of its previously-defined Tier 4 restrictions anywhere right now, I think, and the Scottish Borders are happily in Tier 1 (Scottish version), but abutting Cumbria in Tier 2 (English version) and Northumberland in Tier 3 (English version). The closest English Tier 1 is Herefordshire (the penultimate southerly area that borders on Wales - which is yet a different story!), then it's just Cornwall, the Isle of Wight (where everyone eventually tends to go after the Day Of The Triffids, with their flamethrower patrols to keep it a safe haven for the remains of humanity[2], if that helps) and the Isles of Scilly (basically small crumbs off the tip Cornwall that somehow drifted into the Atlantic).
[1] If anyone wants to actually compare subnational rules info on gov.uk (England and NI), gov.scot, gov.wales (or llyw.cymru if you prefer!) then you're welcome to fill yer boots! There's also gov.je, gov.gg (not sure about the others in the group) and gov.im. Though by the time you're reaching for gov.gi you've probably got to check .eu betwixt (or probably .fr and .es versions, with .ie off to one side and most of the others I could mention in a wide arc round the other, excepting .is and .pt).
[2] The English bit of humanity, that is. As defined in the 1950s. Which, given that you have to change your watch back to the 1950s if you visit the IoW, makes it effectively contemporarily, relatively speaking!
Post by: Rolan7 on December 19, 2020, 08:04:03 pm
https://twitter.com/i/status/1340383304143540227
(Footage of a dense crowd waiting to board the last train to Leeds)
i'm sure that's fine
Post by: Vector on December 19, 2020, 11:26:57 pm
No meeting of more than one person outside. No household mixing. No Christmas 'relaxation'.
Yes, this is us in the Bay Area ("stay healthy and connect with others outside! but make sure you are masked and meeting no one outside your household"), except as we are American dumbasses who live and die for freedom, we know that a lot of people will just go ahead and build a surge on a surge on a surge anyway, because Christmas 9_9
individualism
let them eat Covid
Post by: wierd on December 20, 2020, 02:11:46 am
A simple phone call, while you sit back on the couch and drink some hot chocolate while doing something relaxing, can help you keep in contact and in touch over the holidays.
Post by: Rolan7 on December 20, 2020, 02:16:26 am
Spoiler: Or just open Discord and: (click to show/hide)
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 20, 2020, 03:50:08 am
Spoiler: Big ol' post quoted (click to show/hide)
Other areas of the UK have reacted in kind to BJ's announcement. Scotland will go into a full lockdown from the 26th. NI was already entering a 6 week one. Here in Wales... *sigh*... Literally moments after the Westminster decision the Senedd made the snap decision to enter a national lockdown at midnight - literally 6 hours notice. Despite this being a sensible and unavoidable course of action, it allowed zero contingency planning for anybody, and many people are pissed at the impacts of this on non essential businesses as well as their own Christmases. Nor does it reflect the fact that the infections rates vary wildly between the north and south of the country. Some suggest this was done as an effort to prevent people under lockdown in England fleeing to tourist destinations in Wales, as happened during previous English lockdowns where Wales remained open, as well as due to the spread of CoVid and its new variant in the south.
Post by: Starver on December 20, 2020, 04:36:41 am
But I've still got my 'local' (~15 miles or so[1]) rock gulley that I've long earmarked as where I'd run off to if the Zombie Plague forced me to stay away from all kinds of people of dubious vitality, with a fairly obscure and probably weather-proofable cleft in the rocks that with any luck I can also securely fortify against the shambling masses and the Mad-Maxian modern reavers alike. ;)
[1] Not being more precise. If zombies ever do walk the Earth, I don't want to risk that they remember unwisely revealed grid-references or anything!
Post by: wierd on December 20, 2020, 04:48:47 am
However, it is just not sane to do so right now. Instead, I shall save pennies and take a proper one, once covid is properly in remission/contained/concluded.
I think myself and every other frontline healthcare worker on the damn planet.
Post by: Starver on December 20, 2020, 05:25:28 am
Whatever your (plural) particular poison for happy holidays is, I hope that it's soon but safe enough to be a rewarding respite.
Post by: Caz on December 20, 2020, 06:50:49 am
Oh, yeah, anyway, no-one has mentioned that Boris Johnson invented a Tier 4 Lockdown (not sure how it compares to the Scottish one, but I bet it's different[1], 'cos Boris) for all of London and a large part of the surrounding South-East/almost-South-East (and Peterborough, apparently, up into the English midlands), which effectively "cancels their Christmas". No meeting of more than one person outside. No household mixing. No Christmas 'relaxation'. (Which has been unrelaxed even for the other English version of Tiers from five days across Christmas down to a single one of up to ?three? households co-bubbling in one or other of their houses.)
We're pretty much screwed, too. Unless you're in tier 1 or 2 (basically the highlands, islands (orkney, shetland, na h-eilean siar, argyll+bute etc) and I think the borders?) you're not allowed to leave your council area except on xmas day only, and then by boxing day you aren't allowed to travel at all except essential work reasons etc. I have family who booked ferry etc and now can't get over there (no way a ferry is running on christmas day, and you can't get to hebrides in -one- day from here lmao)
At boxing day whole country immediately goes to tier 4 which is basically same lockdown at the start of all this except they're *still* keeping schools open apparently. >_> at least they finally block people coming up from england, which is something. though it would be nice if they'd done this idk, 10 months ago maybe? :)
Post by: Caz on December 20, 2020, 06:54:36 am
Here in Wales... *sigh*... Literally moments after the Westminster decision the Senedd made the snap decision to enter a national lockdown at midnight - literally 6 hours notice. Despite this being a sensible and unavoidable course of action, it allowed zero contingency planning for anybody, and many people are pissed at the impacts of this on non essential businesses as well as their own Christmases. Nor does it reflect the fact that the infections rates vary wildly between the north and south of the country. Some suggest this was done as an effort to prevent people under lockdown in England fleeing to tourist destinations in Wales, as happened during previous English lockdowns where Wales remained open, as well as due to the spread of CoVid and its new variant in the south.
Yeah the constant flip-flopping is just causing more chaos. 3 days ago Johnson literally laughed at the idea of 'cancelling Christmas' which I'm sure encouraged people to continue their xmas plans, and now they've got all the stuff in they can't go anymore. So there's people with whole turkeys and other people with literally no food in the house lol. Really feel for the people who've been holding on for months for this and even self-isolating themselves, getting tested etc to make sure it's ok, then it's all "btw, no" and you know the usual idiots will pay exactly 0 attention to it, especially when you get announcements from Police Scotland that they're not even going to bother policing the border. Just go and say you're testing your eyesight or something. Utter shambles.
Post by: martinuzz on December 20, 2020, 07:14:04 am
He says that only the vaccin can stop it, because it spreads so rapidly.
"this variant was already out of control when our government was informed of it's existence last friday".
The new corona variant seems to spread about 70% more eagerly. Already, it has become the 'dominant' variant in the London area.
The Dutch and Belgian governments have forbidden all flights from the UK from entering the country. The Eurostar has also been temporarily taken out of service.
Cases of the new variant have already been reported in Belgium, Denmark, Australia and the Netherlands.
Scary stuff.. 70% more contagious.... I hope that doesn't mean it has gone fully airborne.
Post by: Caz on December 20, 2020, 07:59:04 am
Scary stuff.. 70% more contagious.... I hope that doesn't mean it has gone fully airborne.
Considering to weld my elderly mother into her house at this point. She is still occasionally meeting up with her partners family and etc. Especially when vaccine is so soon @_@
Post by: scriver on December 20, 2020, 09:36:04 am
Isn't it legal to deny medical care to anyone in the US unless it's an emergency?
The opposite. Hospitals aren't required to do anything unless it's an emergency. Poor people often get thrown out as soon as they're no longer categorized as dying.
I believe that is what I said.
Speaking of this topic:
Thanks for the info, Vec. I read it, just forelet to respond afterwards. I think I remember hearing about this back when it happened.
It's like people have forgotten that there are these things called telephones, that you can communicate with loved ones in real-time over.
A simple phone call, while you sit back on the couch and drink some hot chocolate while doing something relaxing, can help you keep in contact and in touch over the holidays.
I don't want to sound like I'm defending travelling around because I'm not, but you have to acknowledge that a phone call is pretty fucking far from the same as meeting in person. Especially for a holiday.
Here in Wales... *sigh*... Literally moments after the Westminster decision the Senedd made the snap decision to enter a national lockdown at midnight - literally 6 hours notice. Despite this being a sensible and unavoidable course of action, it allowed zero contingency planning for anybody, and many people are pissed at the impacts of this on non essential businesses as well as their own Christmases. Nor does it reflect the fact that the infections rates vary wildly between the north and south of the country. Some suggest this was done as an effort to prevent people under lockdown in England fleeing to tourist destinations in Wales, as happened during previous English lockdowns where Wales remained open, as well as due to the spread of CoVid and its new variant in the south.
Yeah the constant flip-flopping is just causing more chaos. 3 days ago Johnson literally laughed at the idea of 'cancelling Christmas' which I'm sure encouraged people to continue their xmas plans, and now they've got all the stuff in they can't go anymore. So there's people with whole turkeys and other people with literally no food in the house lol. Really feel for the people who've been holding on for months for this and even self-isolating themselves, getting tested etc to make sure it's ok, then it's all "btw, no" and you know the usual idiots will pay exactly 0 attention to it, especially when you get announcements from Police Scotland that they're not even going to bother policing the border. Just go and say you're testing your eyesight or something. Utter shambles.
Neoliberals: Borders are just, like, imaginary lines on a map anyway, Caz
Scary stuff.. 70% more contagious.... I hope that doesn't mean it has gone fully airborne.
Considering to weld my elderly mother into her house at this point. She is still occasionally meeting up with her partners family and etc. Especially when vaccine is so soon @_@
Feed her nothing but soup through the mail inlet. That's how I interact with my parents these days. They pass me notes under the door and then we burn them, just in case
Post by: Caz on December 20, 2020, 09:43:02 am
Feed her nothing but soup through the mail inlet. That's how I interact with my parents these days. They pass me notes under the door and then we burn them, just in case
Bold to assume the letterbox hasn't already been nailed shut to prevent the reception of bills.
Post by: Rolan7 on December 20, 2020, 11:07:50 am
I can't say no, though, so I'm going to see my mom today. A few days after seeing my dad's family. It's stupid, but I won't be entering a car or building with her, so it should be alright.
Anyway wow, sorry to hear more about the English strain. Coming at just the worst time, too, for super-spreading and quarantine fatigue. Hang in there, y'all :(
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 20, 2020, 11:37:15 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 20, 2020, 12:39:58 pm
Post by: Frumple on December 20, 2020, 03:00:41 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 20, 2020, 06:54:49 pm
Well, you'd need those extendo-reach things you see in cartoons to maintain proper distancing, to start. That's a stretch, y'know?You dare underestimate my powers
Post by: Teneb on December 20, 2020, 07:26:23 pm
Plug my nose and I shall become more powerful than you can imagine.Well, you'd need those extendo-reach things you see in cartoons to maintain proper distancing, to start. That's a stretch, y'know?You dare underestimate my powers
Post by: Iduno on December 20, 2020, 10:16:25 pm
Yeah the constant flip-flopping is just causing more chaos. 3 days ago Johnson literally laughed at the idea of 'cancelling Christmas' which I'm sure encouraged people to continue their xmas plans, and now they've got all the stuff in they can't go anymore. So there's people with whole turkeys and other people with literally no food in the house lol. Really feel for the people who've been holding on for months for this and even self-isolating themselves, getting tested etc to make sure it's ok, then it's all "btw, no" and you know the usual idiots will pay exactly 0 attention to it, especially when you get announcements from Police Scotland that they're not even going to bother policing the border. Just go and say you're testing your eyesight or something. Utter shambles.
The entire thing coincidentally follows the exact playbook you'd use if you wanted people to ignore the rules and spread the virus. Change the rules often, giving no reason, and with no warning. Have inconsistent rules for different people and areas. Don't let people go do things, but also require them to continue going to work. Hit the healthcare system as hard as you can to kill off the poor and "prove" privatization is needed.
Post by: King Zultan on December 21, 2020, 03:13:50 am
Why can't boomers even keep their masks on or over their noses?I've seen more young and middle aged people doing this than old people.
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 21, 2020, 04:46:34 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55391289 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55391289)
Post by: Caz on December 21, 2020, 05:03:21 am
So, the UK is getting cut off from the rest of the world...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55391289 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55391289)
It's been cut off from the rest of the world (mentally) for years.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 21, 2020, 05:26:00 am
Post by: King Zultan on December 21, 2020, 05:28:28 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 21, 2020, 06:30:41 am
Meanwhile in South-Africa, another new mutated variant of corona (different from the UK one) has been identified, a very contagious one that is now thought to be responsible for the second wave in the country. It is unsure yet if this mutation will make the virus immune to the vaccines.
Countries all over the world are preparing travel bans from South Africa.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 21, 2020, 06:39:07 am
Post by: McTraveller on December 21, 2020, 04:33:42 pm
The mutation is already in the continent. Has been gor months :(Yeah, the F->G transcription errors are at an unusually high rate.
(Sorry, trying to inject some humor. Please take it as such and nothing more.)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on December 21, 2020, 04:38:38 pm
oh, humor. Ok. Had you not mentioned that I would have asked which nuclei acid you meant to type with the F, but you mentioned humor, so not literalThe mutation is already in the continent. Has been gor months :(Yeah, the F->G transcription errors are at an unusually high rate.
(Sorry, trying to inject some humor. Please take it as such and nothing more.)
Post by: TamerVirus on December 21, 2020, 05:10:07 pm
Ironically, the new strain is called the GV strainThe mutation is already in the continent. Has been gor months :(Yeah, the F->G transcription errors are at an unusually high rate.
(Sorry, trying to inject some humor. Please take it as such and nothing more.)
Post by: Rolan7 on December 21, 2020, 05:28:02 pm
I usually consider them relatively precautious, but they kept taking their masks all the way off at the get-together a few days ago, and apparently the idea of *not* seeing multiple other families from a hundred miles away for the holidays is completely incomprehensible. My nephew and I were careful but they... damn, I mean, they're really gambling their lives and they somehow feel like they're being safe.
I'm feeling oddly sanguine about this, which is scary because the holiday spike is going to be truly gruesome and might hit my own family. But I tried to explain things as calmly and nonjudgementaly as possible. Water off a duck's back, but at least I turned them down. Maybe it's that they're getting old anyway, and have enjoyed pleasant long retirements... Damn, that's morbid.
(I *think* they're not grokking the idea of symptomless carriers. They know the science, theoretically, but then they talk about how so-and-so feels healthy so it's probably fine to visit.)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 21, 2020, 07:34:32 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on December 21, 2020, 09:47:27 pm
There are a lot of feelings involved because I get anxious about family functions anyway, so I worry I'm just being a paranoid coward or whatever. But defaulting to "not attending parties (IN PERSON)" seems like a reasonable fallback position. When I do visit, it should be with the utmost gravity and care. Things which my parents just... lack, based on their mask etiquette.
When I saw my mom yesterday she asked if it was okay if she didn't wear a mask. I shrugged it off, but I damn sure kept mine on, because it's her I'm most scared for. ...in retrospect, I'm glad I washed up when I got home, because I *really* don't want covid with a bruised rib. I don't want extreme congestion and lung damage at all! But I'd probably survive, they wouldn't.
Post by: scriver on December 22, 2020, 04:17:35 am
Ironically, the new strain is called the GV strainThe mutation is already in the continent. Has been gor months :(Yeah, the F->G transcription errors are at an unusually high rate.
(Sorry, trying to inject some humor. Please take it as such and nothing more.)
Those are my initials
Oh noe
Post by: Caz on December 22, 2020, 05:28:59 am
Just as Christmas has been cancelled due to covid-19, Hogmanay has been cancelled and renamed 'Brexit Eve'. Activities will include sovereign jam construction (very high calorie) and racist chanting.
Continuing this madness while plague is ripping through the country is totally high seppuku. I looked at the interactive map last night and they had to add another colour to it again since the cases were getting so high.
Post by: martinuzz on December 22, 2020, 07:38:44 am
Our ICUs are only half full, but, despite pretty extensive lockdown measures, the number of infections is still rising, and more and more corona patients are admitted to the hospitals.
The shortage to be hit soon is not in ICU capacity, but in medical staff capacity. More and more medical professionals are on sick leave, they are becoming burned out from a year of corona care (or caught corona themselves).
It's worrisome though that despite severe lockdown, the R number isn't going down. Last week, we had 70000 new cases detected (most of those didn't need hospital but still).
This is so different from our first wave and first lockdown, when we got down from 1100 to 0 patients on ICU in about 5 weeks.
And I don't really understand what's so different now. Our current lockdown is more extensive. During our first lockdown, we didn't even wear masks or close retail stores...
Our schools and universities are closed, all public places are closed, all non-essential stores are closed, coming together with more than 2 people is forbidden, facemasks are mandatory (but if anything, since they are made mandatory by law, infection rates are going back up. It looks like facemasks have a pretty big net negative influence on virus spread. R was going down until facemasks became mandatory. Perhaps because people stopped washing hands and being generally more careless when wearing a mask, thinking it is enough protection).
My best guess is that the autumn and winter seasons are really a better habitat for the virus.
Post by: Starver on December 22, 2020, 11:44:54 am
But once we unlockedup somewhat and got back into a situation of free(er)-association the potential rolling waves picked up steam and found inroads into far more 'mutually isolated' groupings so that by this point of Lockdown Two it has have inculcated much more forward-edge.
(Imagine a circle. Double the area, you only √2 the circumference. Let the original circle spawn a new circle of the original size you double both and the potential rate is more per current incidence. Or else consider it a fractal surface, where the 'crinkles' at the resolution of the smallest unit of infection are more significant.)
Also, "Survivor Fallacy". The number of people who never saw how lucky they were before ("We locked down, but I didn't catch anything, nor did anybody I know, so we only[sic] had the pain of Lockdown") so are less likely to strictly adhere to various precautions (mandated or suggested) afterwards.
'Luckily', this won't go on forever. With no other changes (including vaccination, which is an additional and far more preferable limitation) eventually the cycle of increasing spottiness/crinkliness makes it less "much more infective edge in proportion" as the inspected spots properly link up and it becomes "much less infective edge in proportion" as the remaining intersticial unininfected spots shrink in size and quantity. Or topologically grow your fractalesque-crinkles around the sphere of humanity, at some point it'll have around half the area under its influence and any advance reduces the potential rate of gain on the boundless but finite area surface.
Vaccines of course spot similar (but not naturally spreading[1]) polkadots of areas-of-denial for the virus (hopefully) with all the gain of no longer being newly infectible, as per those already touched by the Real Thing™ (hopefully!) without the pain of the actual death/other life-limiting effects.
[1] Until someone designs a "just-live-enough" virus to spread itself but only induce protective responses against both it and the original, without the harm. Well, that's been done with computer viruses; worms that used the self-same code exploit to get into systems vulnerable to another extant worm and auto-patching the vulnerability away (and sometimes disabling the original infection/results if it found it already visited), but even that tended to be highly problematic and I've never seen it been done without sparking further problems. ((Heck, even non-viral 'official system updates' automatically rolled out by the vendor to deal with a newly discovered vector has caused problems to people from stopping legitimate co-software working, without notice, to totally bricking devices.)) I am fairly sure no biologist with any integrity at all would currently think it's a good idea to release an actual biological "anti-virus virus" into the wild.
Post by: Caz on December 22, 2020, 12:09:53 pm
And I don't really understand what's so different now.
Probably it's that new much easily transmissable strain that Westminster shat a brick over. Apparently it's been known since September, yet they only started lockdown because of it a few days ago :o
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 22, 2020, 12:29:55 pm
And I don't really understand what's so different now.
Probably it's that new much easily transmissable strain that Westminster shat a brick over. Apparently it's been known since September, yet they only started lockdown because of it a few days ago :o
My hunch is that those in power rolled with the assumption that existing protocols would act to contain it, ignoring the notions that...
a) It is more transmissible.
b) The existing protocols were not working.
Thats what you get though when a nation of morons elects a moron.
Post by: Zangi on December 22, 2020, 12:51:39 pm
And the whole of China is still sitting pretty with low double digit infections per day.
Post by: Starver on December 22, 2020, 01:54:54 pm
36 cases discovered at the Bernardo O'Higgins (yes, really!) research base in Antarctica, probably via resupply ships.
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 22, 2020, 02:55:04 pm
Post by: Zangi on December 23, 2020, 06:47:45 am
Post by: King Zultan on December 23, 2020, 06:58:12 am
Post by: Egan_BW on December 23, 2020, 07:14:22 am
Post by: dragdeler on December 23, 2020, 07:35:40 am
Post by: Vector on December 23, 2020, 11:22:10 pm
Easy paint vaccine red, make vaccine go vroom, praaagh tip: add squiggle with syringe make extra Rfuson. We need smash drivyboys and fly'yboys then gork and mork pleased and shaman invoke strength.
I didn't think I acquired a concussion lately but now I'm not so sure
Post by: Frumple on December 24, 2020, 12:01:47 am
Though I guess orkz showing up would be one way to top covid in the last week or so of 2020. It'd also explain the functional plague worship we've seen out of a lot of folks; turns out it actually was nurgle and not just nergal getting some new traction in the new millennium! It wouldn't be reassuring at all but at least it'd make more sense :-\
Post by: martinuzz on December 25, 2020, 07:56:31 am
The Japanese government says it hopes to contain the spread of this more contagious variant through extensive contact research and quarantaine.
Post by: Starver on December 25, 2020, 08:14:46 am
(And get ready for the variant that develops itself in direct competition to the initial vaccines. The UK/ZA ones are just more spready, no reason yet to believe they look different to a pre-trained immune system by pure chance.)
Post by: Rolan7 on December 25, 2020, 12:38:43 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 25, 2020, 12:46:09 pm
Post by: Frumple on December 25, 2020, 03:25:08 pm
If it's not loose in the US already, I'd be surprised. I wouldn't be surprised to find out we're fucking up so hard we just haven't noticed, though :-\
Post by: Zangi on December 25, 2020, 03:44:27 pm
*big brain* We do not have any mutated strains of Covid.
Post by: martinuzz on December 25, 2020, 05:20:54 pm
My dad was insisting that people can fly out of London, and that we have unconfirmed cases of the new strain in the US, but I don't think either is true.
The first is true, France and a few more countries revoked the travel bans from the UK within a day or 2.
The second is not unlikely, since the new variant is already going around since september.
Post by: martinuzz on December 27, 2020, 12:05:28 pm
Too many healthcare staff are on sickleave, and the provinces can no longer guarantee the minimum amount of care nescessary to keep their inhabitants alive.
Post by: LordBaal on December 28, 2020, 06:15:46 pm
I would *LOVE* to take a vacation right now, truly.You are invited to Venezuela by all means, as humble as migth be, my casa es su casa. However I would not recomend it because of covid and the rampart insecurity.
However, it is just not sane to do so right now. Instead, I shall save pennies and take a proper one, once covid is properly in remission/contained/concluded.
I think myself and every other frontline healthcare worker on the damn planet.
I think your gummit has even released a notification warning it's citizens against comming here.
It's a shame, it is a beaitiful place.
Post by: TamerVirus on December 29, 2020, 05:26:01 pm
It was inevitable
Post by: Starver on December 29, 2020, 05:31:01 pm
...inB4 @realDonaldTrump talks of the "Britonvirus".
(Though, a: We're probably not worth insulting at this stage in his/our game, b: It probably came here from elsewhere, we just managed to identify it 'first'.)
Post by: LordBaal on December 29, 2020, 05:35:41 pm
Post by: Frumple on December 29, 2020, 06:00:46 pm
The UK variation or the ZA one?Why not both? If there's two, they're probably somewhere in the country, really.
Dunno the specifics on how it's spreading faster, though. Just recall that whatever it is, it's upped spread rate by like 70% or something, which is pretty rough considering the plague wasn't exactly spreading slowly to begin with.
Post by: Starver on December 29, 2020, 06:24:07 pm
Would effectively mean that you don't need as much time in close proximity to someone breathing on you, though (roughly) inverse-square rules wouldn't mean "stay safe at 2m distance has to become as much as "stay safe at 3.4m" for the same peace of mind. Mitigation by mask-wearing (however ill-fitting, but ideally not) will still help over having none.
As to how... Slightly more efficient insertion into host cells? Better hijacking of the cellular factory? I think that needs study, and what we first know is just the resulting stats.
Post by: Vector on December 29, 2020, 06:33:43 pm
Post by: LordBaal on December 29, 2020, 07:56:26 pm
Post by: Vector on December 29, 2020, 08:02:40 pm
Love your new avatar btw. Forgot to tell you in the other thread.
Thanks, I like to think that I occasionally hit a good one! You Almost Wouldn't Know It's Food.
Post by: Jopax on December 29, 2020, 09:46:44 pm
Tho I have half a mind to just go and get tested if possible and put the whole thing to rest, even if it'd be temporary.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on December 29, 2020, 10:08:06 pm
You Almost Wouldn't Know It's Food.
My favorite off-brand not-butter spread.
Post by: JoshuaFH on December 30, 2020, 12:00:35 am
You Almost Wouldn't Know It's Food.
My favorite off-brand not-butter spread.
As far as dairy products go, I'd say its about as good as It's-Definitely-Not-Cheese processed noncheese cheese slices.
Post by: delphonso on December 30, 2020, 01:03:03 am
Post by: LordBaal on December 30, 2020, 08:16:42 am
Post by: Akura on December 30, 2020, 03:56:53 pm
Post by: Caz on December 30, 2020, 04:13:04 pm
https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/
Post by: LordBaal on December 30, 2020, 04:52:26 pm
My store is instituting a policy of temperature checks at the door for employees coming in to start their shifts. If you read a 100.4°F or higher, you're sent home for a 10-day quarantine unless you can produce a negative test in that time. Other stores in other regions have done it, and this seems to just be an expansion of that policy. According to my manager, those stores only sent home about one or two employees since October.Here almost every respectable place is doing that, have people at the door with some infrared thermometer and hand sanitizer. If you have fever they refuse you entry, at least for costumers.
Post by: JoshuaFH on December 30, 2020, 04:56:43 pm
My store is instituting a policy of temperature checks at the door for employees coming in to start their shifts. If you read a 100.4°F or higher, you're sent home for a 10-day quarantine unless you can produce a negative test in that time. Other stores in other regions have done it, and this seems to just be an expansion of that policy. According to my manager, those stores only sent home about one or two employees since October.Here almost every respectable place is doing that, have people at the door with some infrared thermometer and hand sanitizer. If you have fever they refuse you entry, at least for costumers.
I'd refuse costumers too, what do they even think they're doing, getting all dressed up? Do they think I won't recognize them?
Post by: LordBaal on December 30, 2020, 05:30:57 pm
Customers I meant... hahahaha....My store is instituting a policy of temperature checks at the door for employees coming in to start their shifts. If you read a 100.4°F or higher, you're sent home for a 10-day quarantine unless you can produce a negative test in that time. Other stores in other regions have done it, and this seems to just be an expansion of that policy. According to my manager, those stores only sent home about one or two employees since October.Here almost every respectable place is doing that, have people at the door with some infrared thermometer and hand sanitizer. If you have fever they refuse you entry, at least for costumers.
I'd refuse costumers too, what do they even think they're doing, getting all dressed up? Do they think I won't recognize them?
Post by: Frumple on December 31, 2020, 08:10:20 am
So, y'know. Community transfer, shit's loose across state borders, healthcare system already on the verge of functional collapse in places, about to get even worse. Fuck.
Post by: Starver on December 31, 2020, 09:56:14 am
If the former can catch it in the place they were, then its trivial that the latter can recatch it in the place they go. It's just as bad if you only happen to discover a courier case as when you only happen to discover someone plainly couriered to[1], either way, there's going to be a good chance there's a whole undiscovered dendritic chain of cases around the one (or two) you find.
I think the take-home is that these two (or however many are now in the process of being identified, consequently or coincidentally) are just the tip of an inevitable iceberg that you couldn't have avoided without doing all kinds of things that it looks like were never going to happen under the various leaderships you have had, across various tiers of government. (Not that I can claim our arrangement smells of disinfected roses.)
[1] With the obvious exception of a visitor/returnee going straight into isolation and testing (sweeping or symptom-driven) later identifies them as courier/carrier before they get a chance to infect new contacts (and didn't do so to fellow passengers).
Post by: Iduno on January 01, 2021, 10:08:22 pm
That's...certainly a story.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 01, 2021, 11:37:17 pm
Post by: Vector on January 02, 2021, 03:05:43 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 02, 2021, 06:48:17 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 02, 2021, 07:52:19 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 02, 2021, 10:11:57 pm
I still think the vaccine spoilage might be unintentional. They're saying its intentional because he did it twice... but tbh its a somewhat complex to prepare vaccine, and I've met some really stupid people in healthcare. I can believe that guy is dumb enough to fuck it up, try to cover it up because "eh its probably ok", and then fuck up again in the exact same way. Again, I've had the dubious priviledge of working with people like that.
The person involved apparently admitted it was deliberate.
Then again that was through whatever clinic involved, so maybe they felt it was better to defer responsibility as an act of sabotage rather than their incompetence in training their staff.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on January 02, 2021, 10:57:28 pm
If Resident Evil 3 teach anything is preparing vaccines is hard
just stuff some red and green herbs in a tube right
Post by: hector13 on January 03, 2021, 12:48:05 am
If Resident Evil 3 teach anything is preparing vaccines is hard
just stuff some red and green herbs in a tube right
I think Resident Evil should be viewed through the lens that Chris and Jill and the rest of the STARS squad are tripping balls on good ol’ Arklay herb koosh.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 03, 2021, 03:53:52 am
.
The person involved apparently admitted it was deliberate.
Then again that was through whatever clinic involved, so maybe they felt it was better to defer responsibility as an act of sabotage rather than their incompetence in training their staff.
[/quote]
See, I found the "he admitted it" thing curious, and did an online search to get details. And things are quite vague, but apparently what he admitted is that it happened twice, not that it was on purpose. They assumed the "twice" thing meant it was delliberate and reported it as such to the police. But it could be just gross negligence on the man's part. I've met people who are *that* bad.
Post by: wierd on January 03, 2021, 04:58:34 am
But honestly. This is a clinical pharmacist.
I am a CNA, with significantly less training (than a clinical pharmacist), who's job it is to wipe asses and take vital signs. Even I know that this vaccine needs to be kept at damn near freezing temperatures during storage and transport, until just ready to be administered, because of how fragile the RNA is.
Now, I could be an outlier that is simply not representative; however, it should be very concerning indeed, that a person who's job it is to wipe asses, is more competent in being informed about the storage and delivery of modern medications than a person who has been specifically trained for many more years, and who's job it is to not only know simple things like this, but also to know how drugs are compounded, and how they can interact as a final check and balance against patients seeing multiple physicians, and getting potentially dangerous combinations prescribed. If they are not meeting that very simple metric of care, how can they possibly be meeting the metric of care that is required of them?
At some point occam's razor has to indicate that some level of malfeasance is more likely than mere incompetence, because of the many nested levels of incompetence that would be required for such a scenario to manifest.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 03, 2021, 05:31:32 am
I can definitely see a pharmacist fucking up the first time, covering it up, and doing it again because he thought nobody noticed and it was easier. In fact, the whole "inconsistent story" that later resulted in an admission to me stank of that.
Some people are just that bad.
Post by: LordBaal on January 03, 2021, 06:02:40 am
Post by: wierd on January 03, 2021, 06:07:52 am
So, as a consequence, they (pharmacists) tend to not want to admit to anything even remotely resembling being under any kind of debilitating influence that might indicate drug use. (even something as benign as cough syrup.)
There is a lot of burden there, but that burden is commensurate with the responsibility of the vocation. It must be approached with all due severity.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 03, 2021, 06:21:42 am
It could be such a case with this guy. Or just gross incompetence. Anything goes, really. There's a dearth of information about this case.
Post by: wierd on January 03, 2021, 06:28:07 am
(or with doctors getting kickbacks for deciding that 'yes, it is right' for them.)
Pharmacists then become a necessary safety net.
Don't get me wrong, there is *A LOT* wrong with US medical care. I would GREATLY love to see the bullshit dry up and blow away through properly run state healthcare--- but the prevailing conditions being what they are, people in the vocation have a dire need to be awake at the wheel.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 03, 2021, 07:27:15 am
Not that tthings elsewhere are brilliant mind you.
Post by: martinuzz on January 03, 2021, 08:14:04 am
It wasn't an uninformed or conspiracy loon argument.
She said "look, I am 27 and I plan on having children. This vaccin has not been tested on pregnant women. I'll wait a year or so, I first want to make sure that it does not affect fertility, or the health of a child in my womb".
I kinda can't blame any woman with a child wish if they thought the same and waited with the vaccin. Even though that would mean we'd not achieve herd immunity for at least another year.
Post by: wierd on January 03, 2021, 08:28:17 am
(PEG and pals are well understood medically.)
However, there might be complications from mishandled vaccinations... (see also, the UK's *FUCKING 'BRILLIANT' IDEA /s* to mix and match vaccination courses, based on availability, or just incompetent workers keeping off ice too long, etc..) that might have unforeseeable consequences.
Me, I have no reason not to take the vaccine. I am an asexual male, and fertility is not a concern for me. I am aware of how the vaccine works, and am already going to request a half-hour observation time to assure I do not have a severe reaction. (due to past history of adverse reactions to vaccinations. Pretty much all of the vaccinations I have received after the fact have been uneventful, aside from tetanus jab causing extreme muscle tightness and crippling pain in the injected muscle, above and beyond what is considered a normal reaction, so I am not terribly concerned about the COVID vacc, from a personal risk standpoint. However, I agree that long-term cohort studies have not been conducted, and this is a cause of concern)
Post by: scriver on January 03, 2021, 08:54:48 am
But iirc pregnant women are also at an heightened risk of getting the worse kind of corona symptoms, so one has to account for that too. I wouldn't be able to answer her convincingly either.
I'm planning on getting vaccinated eventually (I figure it will take a while before it will become available to me, I'm probably pretty far down the necessity list), but I have to admit I am more than a little worried about it.
Post by: martinuzz on January 03, 2021, 09:09:47 am
Now that there are working vaccines on the market, it is no longer considered ethical to use control groups that do not get a vaccin (because this leaves the testees at an unnescessary risk of dying from corona).
They will have to set up new trials using control groups that have been vaccinated with one of the existing vaccines instead.
This will likely mean the end for a lot of vaccin research, and at least a major slowdown for others.
Winner takes all, this time not thanks to capitalism but thanks to medical ethics.
There's already talks that pharma companies that are still in trial phase should be forced to end their trials and use their capacity to produce the competitor's vaccine instead, so we can have more vaccines, quicker.
Post by: hector13 on January 03, 2021, 09:16:58 am
I got a great deal of sleep (upwards of 11 hours) but still woke up exhausted, and also with very stiff and very sore muscles. Thankfully I was able to take regular over the counter pain medication -multiple times a day - to keep that at bay.
I didn’t really get a cough, but I had to take somewhat shallow breaths as I got a painful tightness in my chest and throat when taking a even a slightly deeper than normal breath.
The worst of the symptoms lasted about 10 days, but I still felt crappy for the better part of 3-4 weeks.
Basically, if you can get the vaccine, get it. It’s better than getting covid.
Post by: Starver on January 03, 2021, 10:13:41 am
Also Boris Johnson: Fully open all schools tomorrow!
(Paraphrased, for effect.)
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 03, 2021, 10:38:41 am
Boris Johnson: Covid rules are going to get tougher.
Also Boris Johnson: Fully open all schools tomorrow!
(Paraphrased, for effect.)
There is a shit storm brewing on this one. Education unions are instructing members not to work if they feel unsafe (which lots of us do, with 30 or more people in a poorly ventilated room, 6 times a day), and beginning legal action around the "advice" or "evidence" that government is following when it claims schools are "safe". Public opinion seems to generally favour switching to remote learning, but a very loud right wing voice (media amplified) is attacking teachers as "work shy scum".
Prediction: some time between 7 to 14 days schools will close, with government trying to either claim it was thier great idea, or that they had no choice.
Post by: Zangi on January 03, 2021, 12:30:49 pm
Post by: wierd on January 03, 2021, 12:32:31 pm
Double blind studies prevent the experimenters from knowing which set of operations are the actual variable being tested, and which are the control, which prevents the experimenters from contaminating the results.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 03, 2021, 12:33:18 pm
I gotta ask, what is the point of this double blind thing, where you already have data on people who do not receive vaccines? (Though, I guess the companies that got the trials in first may not really care enough to share that data...)
You need to make sure the patient selection is equivalent and representative, and that you get the necessary data as needed (rather than rely on potentially inaccurate records). Also historical controls tend to overestimate the effects of singular interventions, as overall management tends to improve over time.
For instance, in the case of vaccines: What if you test the efficacy of your vaccine yet your vaccine intervention group is being more careful than the historical group simply due to behavior adaptation in the face of the pandemic? Eg: not wearing masks versus wearing masks
Post by: LordBaal on January 03, 2021, 12:34:54 pm
1- Rigth now I think the first line workers of the health system are the biggest priority.
2- Call me overcautious, but I will rather wait out a little bit to observe how likely are reactions to it and prepare for th worst.
3- Most likely it will be the Russian one the one that comes to this shores... which in Argentina has already caused bad reactions in a lot of people.
Not to say that health workers should be the lab rats but if I worked in the health sector, I would get it anyway, risks of reactions or not, better to feel bad a few days and stop being a vector for that piece of shit virus, specially if you are going to be dealing with the sick (of covid or otherwise).
Post by: Starver on January 03, 2021, 02:08:28 pm
For instance, in the case of vaccines: What if you test the efficacy of your vaccine yet your vaccine intervention group is being more careful than the historical group simply due to behavior adaptation in the face of the pandemic? Eg: not wearing masks versus wearing masksConversely (but not at all equalising the errors), a study group that assumes it is vaccinated is less careful because it 'feels the benefit'. Or even actively pursues dangers to personally 'test' their protection.
That's dealt with by the 'blind' tests (depending on what you can/must test) with cohorts for the dose(s) you're trialling vs other cohorts with a competitive treatment and/or placebo[1], such that other factors (gender, age, obesity, whatever you can measure) are spread around those cohorts.
But a doctor/nurse who can see past the patient-blindness is a problem. From actually telling the subject "be careful, this is/isn't the actual/pre-approved/full-strength dose!" to unwitting facial expressions or tone of voice[2]. So the gold standard is to keep them in the dark (about which they are administering[3]) by supplying (e.g.) lab-labelled vials of "dose for patient XYZ", "dose for patient QPR", etc.
Further behind the scenes, the layer of administration holds all the back-references. Usually there is a criteria (such as "more than 20% of participants get significantly more well/sick", or "in the event of a participant death", tuned to expectations) at which point an interim analysis is performed on the deblinded data to establish if there's an unusually good/bad outcome to one group or another - if it's indeed significant, the protocol allows for the trial to be stopped and those with the most troublesome/least beneficial treatment to be fast-tracked onto the better alternative. That could be the hoped-for test item or not. Including back to the previous 'standard' treatment (not able to be used as the bl8nd-counter) when that's applicable.
It's interesting to consider the implications. But there are those who do that professionally, and with far more attention to the detail of the specific study (how participants can/must they recruit, how, what level of result is significant/beyond chance, what are the showstopper events (good and bad), what's the end-game, what after-care/post-trial follow-uping may be needed, etc, etc, etc...) that varies wildly according to whether it's a chemical treatment, a biological one, surgery, implantation, dressing, topical salve or any other form of therapy short of pure psychology (which may have its own system, but I've not heard details of that).
[1] The 'placebo' for acupuncture is interesting. But harder to double-blind. OTOH, they've done some decent work towards double-blinding the power of prayer.
[2] That's also been tested, with both informed actors and unwitting personal 'administering' a global placebo (in a Phase I-ish situation) to see what placebo/nocebo effects can arise out totally independent of other causes.
[3] Not that they are in trial situation. Except where this is specifically a test as described just above, personnel and recipients must both know they might/might not be in the target cohort, etc, with what the possibile 'treatments' are, for ethics reasons.
Post by: McTraveller on January 03, 2021, 02:37:23 pm
This is interesting on three fronts: the first is that yes, of course if you are in a state where there are fewer restrictions like restaurants are still open and such, then, all else equal, there are going to be more case counts. The second is that the sentiment is one expressed by many people: there was an implicit assertion that it is preferable to have higher case counts in exchange for a less locked-down environment.
The third front, which is more interesting perhaps, is in that "preference". I ponder of late if it's even possible to rank those situations on a "better/worse" scale. What I mean by that is that there are some systems that do not have the attribute of sort-ability. For example, the complex numbers cannot be sorted the way real numbers can: there is no "greater than" operator which produces a specific ordering of complex numbers. The extension is that perhaps many situations in the real world are like complex numbers - it's just fundamentally not possible to order them as "better/worse" and humanity runs into all sorts of problems by trying to order them.
Post by: misko27 on January 04, 2021, 03:18:49 pm
Post by: Starver on January 04, 2021, 03:22:27 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 04, 2021, 03:23:01 pm
Post by: nenjin on January 04, 2021, 03:36:18 pm
Post by: TD1 on January 04, 2021, 03:55:06 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on January 04, 2021, 03:59:35 pm
Boris Johnson has announced Britain will reenter lockdown, as cases of the new variant of the virus rise. (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/world/europe/britain-re-enters-lockdown-as-virus-variant-rages.html)(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/772656322431942687/795732304286711918/Eq6LcYOXUAEZ0bN.png)
Post by: MrRoboto75 on January 04, 2021, 04:01:00 pm
Boris Johnson has announced Britain will reenter lockdown, as cases of the new variant of the virus rise. (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/world/europe/britain-re-enters-lockdown-as-virus-variant-rages.html)[picture]
sad_trombone.wav
Post by: Caz on January 04, 2021, 04:03:06 pm
Post by: nenjin on January 04, 2021, 04:54:51 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 04, 2021, 05:03:58 pm
(https://media.gq.com/photos/55828d561177d66d68d5320f/3:4/w_324,h_432,c_limit/blogs-the-feed-dumb-and-dumber-to-jim-carrey-quotes-credit-universal.jpg)Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on January 05, 2021, 02:57:13 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 05, 2021, 11:37:50 pm
(https://media.gq.com/photos/55828d561177d66d68d5320f/3:4/w_324,h_432,c_limit/blogs-the-feed-dumb-and-dumber-to-jim-carrey-quotes-credit-universal.jpg)
I looked at this picture and was like "could this be the Dumb and Dumber characters?" and I looked it up, and yep...
Post by: martinuzz on January 08, 2021, 06:50:31 am
I think our government needs to re-shuffle the order in which people get vaccinated, or valuable time will be wasted.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 08, 2021, 07:36:00 am
My boss told me I had to go back to work because everyone was going back to work. I am at work and they are not; they used their much greater annual leave to stay at home because they said it wasn't safe to travel.Boris Johnson has announced Britain will reenter lockdown, as cases of the new variant of the virus rise. (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/04/world/europe/britain-re-enters-lockdown-as-virus-variant-rages.html)Spoiler (click to show/hide)
On the train ride home, a man pulled down his mask to sneeze twice, pulling his mask back up to go to sleep.
Post by: TD1 on January 08, 2021, 07:39:33 am
A man pulled down his mask to sneeze twice, pulling his mask back up to go to sleep.Wot
Post by: martinuzz on January 08, 2021, 07:43:10 am
They want him to be charged with attempted murder.
According to the prison regime, prisoner's faces have to be visible at all times so the staff can assess their facial expressions.
This means the prisoners are forced to not wear facemasks, while also not being able to keep social distance.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 08, 2021, 07:45:38 am
1 in 30 londoners infected with the coof and it still seems people dgafA man pulled down his mask to sneeze twice, pulling his mask back up to go to sleep.Wot
Meanwhile, prisoners from a prison in Heerhugowaard have reported their warden to the police for forbidding them to wear facemasks.plastic face covers?
They want him to be charged with attempted murder.
According to the prison regime, prisoner's faces have to be visible at all times so the staff can assess their facial expressions.
This means the prisoners are forced to not wear facemasks, while also not being able to keep social distance.
Post by: LordBaal on January 08, 2021, 08:41:16 am
Post by: Starver on January 08, 2021, 10:27:54 am
It's an amorphously described group, I know, and probably dominated by the intrinsically irresponsible, but at some level 'wasting' vaccinations on this group buys time for the others.
(Not that I'm in any of the aforementioned groups. Still not expecting being offered the jag in the immediate future.)
Post by: Vector on January 08, 2021, 10:31:21 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 08, 2021, 10:34:46 am
Better to frontload sensible vulnerable population and frontliners in general (including but not limited to hcw. I think Vector should get the vaccine too)
Post by: Frumple on January 08, 2021, 10:40:07 am
Post by: Vector on January 08, 2021, 10:45:05 am
Better to frontload sensible vulnerable population and frontliners in general (including but not limited to hcw. I think Vector should get the vaccine too)
Thanks, but in my opinion I should be last in line :P I teach at the university level now and at least in theory the 18+ population no longer need me to handle their socio-emotional learning, so we can handle online for a good while.
Monkeyhead, on the other hand...
Post by: Starver on January 08, 2021, 10:52:46 am
:P
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 08, 2021, 11:55:33 am
Y'know...folks that have been paying closer attention, is there actually recommendation floating around that older diabetics not take the vaccine? Grandparents have picked that up from somewhere or another.Nope, quite the contrary. Having diabetes puts them more at risk of covid so they should get the vaccine
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 08, 2021, 02:44:42 pm
No dice there though.
At least all my delivery (even my work with universties) is now done remotely, for the foreseeable future.
Post by: scriver on January 08, 2021, 03:49:09 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 08, 2021, 04:36:44 pm
Post by: Starver on January 08, 2021, 04:58:33 pm
...is it the Oxford or the BioNTech? (Too early to be Moderna, I'm sure.)
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 08, 2021, 07:27:23 pm
Post by: nenjin on January 08, 2021, 07:43:04 pm
None of us have had any symptoms but I dunno. If she's just been carrying it around the whole time it's likely one of us also got it at some point and was just asymptomatic.
*sigh* Please let this shit be over this year.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 08, 2021, 07:49:05 pm
Meaning: the current consensus is that persistent covid + dont imply infectivity in general, although there's still controversy with persistently positive immunocompromised patients
Post by: Starver on January 08, 2021, 08:53:28 pm
Spoiler: Updated priorities (click to show/hide)
Post by: Akura on January 09, 2021, 04:07:54 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on January 09, 2021, 04:34:26 pm
Not to exaggerate, but this reminds me of those meat plants where sometimes employees would stop coming in, with no explanation from the company, and later it was discovered they'd died of Covid.
Post by: Starver on January 09, 2021, 04:44:20 pm
(The other day there was a completely different (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55577426) scam reported.)
Post by: martinuzz on January 09, 2021, 04:51:09 pm
Why wouldn't they tell you who? That seems like very vitally important information you should all have. That's, like, the point of contact tracing.
Not to exaggerate, but this reminds me of those meat plants where sometimes employees would stop coming in, with no explanation from the company, and later it was discovered they'd died of Covid.
Company sharing personal medical information of an employee with third parties? That's a fast lane to lawsuit and getting fined for breaking the law. Contact tracing is the appropriate medical organisation's responsibilty, not an employer's.
Besides, for contact tracing purposes it is completely unnescessary to reveal the identity of a vector to others. The only thing that is important is that those people who were in contact are told they might have been exposed and need to quarantaine.
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 09, 2021, 07:13:34 pm
I mean, I was tested (negative) in October as an outpatient (non covid related minor surgery), but since then? Nope. Seems close educational contact doesn't feature in the list of concerns.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on January 09, 2021, 07:22:46 pm
Post by: Iduno on January 09, 2021, 08:28:18 pm
I have had literally dozens of my students come down with covid, and not once been asked by any authority to isolate or get tested.
I mean, I was tested (negative) in October as an outpatient (non covid related minor surgery), but since then? Nope. Seems close educational contact doesn't feature in the list of concerns.
Yeah, "Essential" workers seems to mean expendable workers.
Post by: Doomblade187 on January 10, 2021, 01:22:02 pm
Some covid patients have signs of brain damage, capable of causing symptoms similar to multiple-infarct dementia.
Post by: Iduno on January 10, 2021, 09:06:48 pm
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-study-uncovers-blood-vessel-damage-inflammation-covid-19-patients-brains-no-infection
Some covid patients have signs of brain damage, capable of causing symptoms similar to multiple-infarct dementia.
I had heard that permanent damage similar to the lung growths were noticed in the heart and brain as well.
Post by: martinuzz on January 10, 2021, 09:11:52 pm
22 million of these are in the US, more than double the amount of India (10.5 million)
Post by: Duuvian on January 11, 2021, 04:09:35 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 11, 2021, 07:55:56 am
Is there a site showing covid vaccine production rates? I'm interested in seeing the rate of increase of production over time, current production, and forecasted production. I've heard that some of the 2nd dose are being opened for use as initial dose in places, and I'm wondering if they are matching it to greater than expected current production rate or utilizing forecasted production.
They are flailing about in desperation as they have for the last few months. There is no site available listing production AFAIK, but for what I read around the production rates are LOWER. I've received reports of armed attacks on shipments. There's not enough vaccine to go around, and the underclasses are starting to get desperate
Post by: Starver on January 11, 2021, 08:56:19 am
The first news item (across aggregators) that I could find specifically querying distribution that was less than two weeks old (the others were November as well as December) summarises some of Europe's experiences (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55575756), but I couldn't immediately find full production values (even just for Puurs, Kalamazoo, etc) unless I skipped over them in my haste.
Heard on the news last night: "All UK adults will be given[1] the vaccine by autumn." So I expect mine next year, just after the fifth or sixth all-nation lockdown is instituted. Because that's how things roll, here, unless politics changes drastically in the meantime.
[1] Or at least offered?
Post by: Starver on January 11, 2021, 12:29:26 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 11, 2021, 12:55:14 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 11, 2021, 01:25:50 pm
Heh unless armed vaccin robbers own extensive medical facilities that can keep it at -70C, they are not going to have much use for it.Yeah. Of course they're desperate. They can smell their death, and the sound they'll make rattling their cage will serve as a warning to the rest.
Post by: Starver on January 11, 2021, 03:34:44 pm
They could, indeed, think it's worth using and use it on themselves. But they're probably going to mess it up anyway. (Even if they bring it up out of subsubzero temperatures and suitably dilute the packaged quantity into the required number of multiple doses, apparently you should not agitate the liquid before donating, as that destroys the way Tozinameran's vital suspended lipids nanoparticles work.)
Post by: scriver on January 11, 2021, 04:00:47 pm
Post by: Starver on January 11, 2021, 04:10:21 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 11, 2021, 05:22:15 pm
Post by: Starver on January 12, 2021, 10:48:59 pm
(Though if I was a highly unstable and manic individual forced to wear this mask, for Covid reasons or just yer standard Bane/Immorten Joe ones, I'd probably make the low-light mode thing into a projective "AR"/facetime-filter thing tuned to reflect my intended mood... Dripping fangs, ghostly green, kissy lips, etc.)
Post by: LordBaal on January 13, 2021, 05:19:54 am
Post by: Frumple on January 13, 2021, 07:47:22 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 13, 2021, 07:53:51 am
Most Belgians are unaware though, because the government only communicated it through 'Staatsblad' (State magazine), which almost no-one reads.
Post by: scriver on January 13, 2021, 08:00:51 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 13, 2021, 08:11:40 am
But, over half of our population doesn't get that newspaper, because they care about the environment.
They have a 'NO-NO' sticker on their mailbox, meaning NO advertisements, NO unadressed door-to-door media, to save paper, to save the rainforest.
Note that those stickers are advertised for and freely distributed by the same city council that uses the door-to-door media to communicate.
Post by: Starver on January 13, 2021, 08:32:59 am
Sooo... is not single use rigth? How do you even wash that thing without frying it?Well, if you do and it does then it was...
(I presume it's hermeticly sealed between 'face gap' and electronics to at least 'splash-proof' level, letting you spray-and-wipe of straight up disenfectant-soaked-cloth it down, perhaps even you extract the electronics like I think this from July (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-humber-53478939) and definitely this as reported in June (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/technology-52944499) had the user do.)
I once again, though, draw the comparison between masks that we are all encouraged to wear in normal life that are there to help us protect others from our own (unknown) viral load and N95s that are purely a self-preserving measure (highly useful if you're going to work in a hospital 'red zone', but a "superspreader's charter" if you are already unwittingly infected during a prior lapse and now 'protecting' yourself against a naïve population of heretofor unscathed maskless contacts.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 13, 2021, 08:55:11 am
In a crossover from "what would a movie supervillain wear?" there's this concept face mask (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55642398)...Fricken gamers! Just speak up! Cloth masks barely muffle anything, it's fine aaaagggh!
(Though if I was a highly unstable and manic individual forced to wear this mask, for Covid reasons or just yer standard Bane/Immorten Joe ones, I'd probably make the low-light mode thing into a projective "AR"/facetime-filter thing tuned to reflect my intended mood... Dripping fangs, ghostly green, kissy lips, etc.)
The lights are cool, I guess, particularly that they automatically turn down in darkness. Dunno if that's worth a mask I have to put on the charger.
Get back to me when you have voice modulation options, thanks.
Also, I've said this before, but I love wearing a mask and plan to do so for the next four years if not longer. It helps me feel myself, and a good mask isn't uncomfortable in the slightest.
Post by: nenjin on January 13, 2021, 11:08:40 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 13, 2021, 12:34:04 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 13, 2021, 01:15:51 pm
You know what really grinds my gears? Foreign journalists who call in to our biweekly corona info giving + press meet and still persist with the moronic delusion that we had no measures at all taken before now.
Well to be fair the measures until very recently were crap. Not that the rest of Europe has done much better mind you, but I think what it´s glaring is the opportunity cost. Sweden had the opportunity to being in the not-quite-as-awful tier of covid mismanagement in Europe, alongside Norway and Finland, rather than the Ultrashit tier with UK, Spain, and the Netherlands.
If I had to guess I´d say Tegnell is about as awful as Fernando Simon, the main difference being that Tegnell has shitty ideas where Fernando Simon is criminally negligent.
I don´t think anyone outside Asia and Oceania has managed this pandemic well, though. This is the Chernobyl moment for Western Europe and the US. We really should have done better, but we didnt because of a dramatic lack of political leadership.
Post by: wierd on January 13, 2021, 02:32:41 pm
That would go against DECADES of deregulation-based rhetoric and policy, and against nearly a generation of local social policy.
Naturally, our leaders instead just tucked their heads, and hoped it would pass over like the angel of death.
Post by: scriver on January 13, 2021, 03:51:10 pm
You know what really grinds my gears? Foreign journalists who call in to our biweekly corona info giving + press meet and still persist with the moronic delusion that we had no measures at all taken before now.
Well to be fair the measures until very recently were crap. Not that the rest of Europe has done much better mind you, but I think what it´s glaring is the opportunity cost. Sweden had the opportunity to being in the not-quite-as-awful tier of covid mismanagement in Europe, alongside Norway and Finland, rather than the Ultrashit tier with UK, Spain, and the Netherlands.
If I had to guess I´d say Tegnell is about as awful as Fernando Simon, the main difference being that Tegnell has shitty ideas where Fernando Simon is criminally negligent.
No, that is not to be fair. The idea that Sweden didn't take any measures is a right out falsehood and you are wrong if you believe it.
Tegnell isn't to blame for Sweden's failure either. That's on the landthings and the citizens.
Post by: McTraveller on January 13, 2021, 05:08:35 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 13, 2021, 08:08:00 pm
I didnt say no measures were taken. I said that too few measures were taken. This is true of all Europe. Moreso of SwedenYou know what really grinds my gears? Foreign journalists who call in to our biweekly corona info giving + press meet and still persist with the moronic delusion that we had no measures at all taken before now.
Well to be fair the measures until very recently were crap. Not that the rest of Europe has done much better mind you, but I think what it´s glaring is the opportunity cost. Sweden had the opportunity to being in the not-quite-as-awful tier of covid mismanagement in Europe, alongside Norway and Finland, rather than the Ultrashit tier with UK, Spain, and the Netherlands.
If I had to guess I´d say Tegnell is about as awful as Fernando Simon, the main difference being that Tegnell has shitty ideas where Fernando Simon is criminally negligent.
No, that is not to be fair. The idea that Sweden didn't take any measures is a right out falsehood and you are wrong if you believe it.
Tegnell isn't to blame for Sweden's failure either. That's on the landthings and the citizens.
Quote
Tegnell isn't to blame for Sweden's failure either. That's on the landthings and the citizens.Tegnell is a cunt (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails). And while people are over the western world are doubtlessly crap at social distancing it frustrates me to see the goverments claim successes yet try to shift the blame on the population. Let me bw clear: its all on the goverment. They know very well that left to their own devices way too many people will flout restrictions even when they really should know better. Individual actors can only work individually but to contain the pandemic you need full societal drives, and its up to goverments to enforce those.
Post by: scriver on January 13, 2021, 09:12:16 pm
Tegnell is a cunt (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails).
I've seen the mails in question, it's pure sensationalist bullshit, literally grasping a couple of sentences out of context out from god knows how many emails discussing hypotheticals.
Quote
And while people are over the western world are doubtlessly crap at social distancing it frustrates me to see the goverments claim successes yet try to shift the blame on the population. Let me bw clear: its all on the goverment. They know very well that left to their own devices way too many people will flout restrictions even when they really should know better. Individual actors can only work individually but to contain the pandemic you need full societal drives, and its up to goverments to enforce those.
No. People are not children. And while the governments may be responsible, the responsibilities fall on the responsible authorities. I already mentioned the landthings.
Post by: martinuzz on January 14, 2021, 05:19:04 am
They say the government needs to stop focussing solely on the virus risk, but also look at the risks threatening the development of children and young people. The demand that the government, sport organisations and schools start looking for alternative possibilities for keeping schools open in a safe way.
UNICEF has also sent a plea to all world leaders asking them to please keep the schools open
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 14, 2021, 06:09:37 am
I dont know what a landthing is. But I strongly disagree about the rest. Goverments should work based on freaking *reality*. And they are the executive power, not a random powerless consultation body. If they know people are not following recommendations and making the pandemic worse then the goverment bears responsability for their failure to act, specially because its within their power to do so. If they had gone to the very limit of executive power and still could not keep things under control (eg if they were trying to implement a lockdown and faced a strong legal barrier that defied any attempts to surmount it) then I'd concede. But if they just "advise" caution and call it a day? Then they're very much abandoning their responsabilitiesTegnell is a cunt (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails).
I've seen the mails in question, it's pure sensationalist bullshit, literally grasping a couple of sentences out of context out from god knows how many emails discussing hypotheticals.QuoteAnd while people are over the western world are doubtlessly crap at social distancing it frustrates me to see the goverments claim successes yet try to shift the blame on the population. Let me bw clear: its all on the goverment. They know very well that left to their own devices way too many people will flout restrictions even when they really should know better. Individual actors can only work individually but to contain the pandemic you need full societal drives, and its up to goverments to enforce those.
No. People are not children. And while the governments may be responsible, the responsibilities fall on the responsible authorities. I already mentioned the landthings.
Post by: martinuzz on January 14, 2021, 06:12:59 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 14, 2021, 06:15:02 am
But how do you expect a government to enforce all those rules? Can Sweden borrow 500000 police officers from you?And by the by this would be more solid if noone was successful at containing the pandemic. Problem is, plenty of places enforced the rules, hard, and suppressed covid spread. It's very clear it can be done. What is missing is political will.
Heck, some European countries that were doing far better suddenly decided to ignore their own public health recommendations and tossed away the good work of months in a couple of weeks. If that's not the perfect example of executive branch failure I dont know what it is.
Post by: martinuzz on January 14, 2021, 06:25:34 am
Can you borrow the EU and US about 15 million police officers? While we're at it, do you sell concentration camps?
What more do you expect our governments to do? All public places are closed. All non-essential stores are closed, schools are closed, all jobs where that is even remotely possible have their employees work at home. No more than 2 visitors are allowed per household..
Sadly, there are a lot of people who disregard the rules. Mostly younger folks still come together illegaly in groups at each other's homes.
Is that the government's responsibility? I sure hope not, that would mean we need to turn our country into a DDR-model control and police state.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 14, 2021, 06:54:38 am
You dont have a leg to stand on and you know it.
Post by: scriver on January 14, 2021, 07:19:19 am
I dont know what a landthing is. But I strongly disagree about the rest. Goverments should work based on freaking *reality*. And they are the executive power, not a random powerless consultation body. If they know people are not following recommendations and making the pandemic worse then the goverment bears responsability for their failure to act, specially because its within their power to do so. If they had gone to the very limit of executive power and still could not keep things under control (eg if they were trying to implement a lockdown and faced a strong legal barrier that defied any attempts to surmount it) then I'd concede. But if they just "advise" caution and call it a day? Then they're very much abandoning their responsabilitiesTegnell is a cunt (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/swedens-covid-19-strategist-under-fire-over-herd-immunity-emails).
I've seen the mails in question, it's pure sensationalist bullshit, literally grasping a couple of sentences out of context out from god knows how many emails discussing hypotheticals.QuoteAnd while people are over the western world are doubtlessly crap at social distancing it frustrates me to see the goverments claim successes yet try to shift the blame on the population. Let me bw clear: its all on the goverment. They know very well that left to their own devices way too many people will flout restrictions even when they really should know better. Individual actors can only work individually but to contain the pandemic you need full societal drives, and its up to goverments to enforce those.
No. People are not children. And while the governments may be responsible, the responsibilities fall on the responsible authorities. I already mentioned the landthings.
The Swedish government is divided into three parts. The State, which handles the legal and some executive powers at the top level; the landthings, the regional powers who handle our healthcare and finance hospitals, health centres, and clinics; and the communes, which is the smallest sized government unit and handles the day to day running of our lives, social services from day care and schools to sickhomes and agehomes and which set the rules for how we can act in our daily lives and are also the ones in charge of inspection to see
If we follow the rules.
Tegnell is part of the state level government bodies, and his agency is in fact just a consultation body. They don't have any executive powers. They don't decide shit. Nearly all of the executive powers relevant to Sweden's screw ups are on the landthing and communal level. It is the landthings and communes that handle the elder homes and health care where we failed to keep the virus away from our elders. It is on the communes to inspect and make sure that businesses follow the guidelines. Even the ability to give the communes more ability to act does not lie with Tegnells agency, it lies with the Riksdag.
And that's kind of the problem. You don't know the first thing about how Sweden works but you're quick to call Tegnell names just because he is the only name you know. And that is bullshit.
And once again, no, people are not children, and the government are not expected to have responsibility for us as if we were children. We are responsible for ourselves. In fact, the Swedish government completely lack the legal ability to do the kind of things you want. They aren't allowed to shut people in their homes. They aren't allowed to stop people from travelling (see the All-Man's-Right laws, one of our oldest legal customs). We are a free people, and with that freedom comes responsibility. We, the people, failed to act responsibly. We failed to show solidarity, we failed to show national or patriotic or just neighbourly spirit. In my mind, our failure is the a capstone over the failures of selfish individualism over solidarist communalism. We don't get to act as if we are not responsible for our own failures and say that "it's ok to not follow the rules because my dad doesn't spank me if I do". We were given clear lines to follow. If we don't follow them, then it's not somebody else's fault when we screw up. Insert "we live in a society" meme.
Post by: Starver on January 14, 2021, 07:32:00 am
Spoiler: Ninjaed! (click to show/hide)
On Covid: There is significant (but not total) protection from reinfection for up to five months after the prior episode, it has been announced, which is as good as we can realistically say little more than five months since the ramp-up in general testing that was necessary to let the data-punchers confirm/falsify such a statement. And a 'Brazillian" variation is entering the field of concern (as per the Kent and South African ones), but not much more info.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 14, 2021, 07:36:35 am
Quote
And that's kind of the problem. You don't know the first thing about how Sweden works but you're quick to call Tegnell names just because he is the only name you know. And that is bullshit.No, you misunderstand. I think Tegnell is a cunt because he gives shit psychopathic advice. I know that sort of agencies are consultational bodies, and I know goverments are free to ignore them (I used to be part of one - not public health mind you- , myself). The onus of not giving shit advice is still on them. But you´re probably right, if he had said something sensible the goverment would have ignored him. It has happened elsewhere
Quote
And once again, no, people are not children, and the government are not expected to have responsibility for us as if we were children. We are responsible for ourselves.Strongly disagree. Societal threats can only be addressed at a societal level. Once they arise, strong individualism becomes increasingly a liability.
Quote
In fact, the Swedish government completely lack the legal ability to do the kind of things you want. They aren't allowed to shut people in their homes. They aren't allowed to stop people from travelling (see the All-Man's-Right laws, one of our oldest legal customs).New situations require new laws. The onus is on the legislative bodies to make the necessary laws.
Quote
And once again, no, people are not children, and the government are not expected to have responsibility for us as if we were children. We are responsible for ourselves. In fact, the Swedish government completely lack the legal ability to do the kind of things you want. They aren't allowed to shut people in their homes. They aren't allowed to stop people from travelling (see the All-Man's-Right laws, one of our oldest legal customs). We are a free people, and with that freedom comes responsibility. We, the people, failed to act responsibly. We failed to show solidarity, we failed to show national or patriotic or just neighbourly spirit. In my mind, our failure is the a capstone over the failures of selfish individualism over solidarist communalism. We don't get to act as if we are not responsible for our own failures and say that "it's ok to not follow the rules because my dad doesn't spank me if I do". We were given clear lines to follow. If we don't follow them, then it's not somebody else's fault when we screw up. Insert "we live in a society" meme.Honestly I think this is all based on a vast overestimation on the responsability and behavior of groups of humans. It doesnt work like that. People as a whole are lackwits. I´m at peace with this fact. Goverments know this, so they must make decisions with this fact in mind, to the limit of their ability. When something that is happening under your watch is half-assed and you know it, and despite that you do nothing, you bear responsability for it, even if technically it was someone else fucking up. I´m not holding them to unrealistic standards: that´s how it works for me, so it should apply to them as well.
Again: This is just not about Sweden. Again, I THINK ALL EUROPE IS CRAP. Some have smaller pieces of the shit-cake, and some bigger pieces of the shit-cake, but the continent-wide level of mismanagement is outrageous. Goverments reaping the merit when things do better and then shifting the blame to the populace is gaslighting to insulting extremes.
The numbers don´t lie: Western management of the pandemic is shit. Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results is delusional (and if anything we´re doing WORSE than we were back in March, not better). And failure to adapt is what destroys societies.
Post by: scriver on January 14, 2021, 07:40:02 am
Spoiler: Ninjaed! (click to show/hide)
On second thought, "countything" might be a more suitable translation. But "landsthing" sounds more romantic and cognomative.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 14, 2021, 07:40:50 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 14, 2021, 07:42:35 am
A DDR state with concentration camps. Like Taiwan. Or South Korea. Or Australia. Or New Zealand. Right.
You dont have a leg to stand on and you know it.
You might ridicule my absurdism, but if you are argueing for state control to reach within people's homes, a DDR-like police state is exactly what you are argueing for.
Just like Sweden, as Scriver pointed out, that is not how our western democracies work.
Post by: scriver on January 14, 2021, 08:24:33 am
Come clear: you delliberatedly name-dropped landthing several times because you were *eager* to give us a full etymological explanation on the damn things.
You are 100% correct and I have no shame :P
Post by: Starver on January 14, 2021, 08:51:20 am
Post by: Iduno on January 14, 2021, 09:34:51 am
Looks like I'm a few days behind, but the stupid idea that everyone said was stupid, surprisingly, turned out to be stupid. Prior to this set of restrictions, NY was on course to get everyone vaccinated in about 1,000 work days (none on holidays and weekends), or about 4 years. The new lack of confidence in the system should extend that quite a bit, but Cuomo's goal the entire time has seemed to be getting as many people killed by COVID as possible.
Post by: Bumber on January 14, 2021, 10:19:28 am
Quote from: https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1348673192609591296
We simply cannot stay closed until the vaccine hits critical mass. The cost is too high. We will have nothing left to open. We must reopen the economy, but we must do it smartly and safely.
As if New York's just suddenly reached a critical point where it can't bear to lockdown for a little while longer to distribute the vaccines.
I guess with the orange man leaving office, Cuomo can follow the Republican policy of reopening without seeming like he agrees with them.
Post by: McTraveller on January 14, 2021, 10:59:12 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/nyregion/new-york-vaccine-guidelines.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/10/nyregion/new-york-vaccine-guidelines.html)
Looks like I'm a few days behind, but the stupid idea that everyone said was stupid, surprisingly, turned out to be stupid. Prior to this set of restrictions, NY was on course to get everyone vaccinated in about 1,000 work days (none on holidays and weekends), or about 4 years. The new lack of confidence in the system should extend that quite a bit, but Cuomo's goal the entire time has seemed to be getting as many people killed by COVID as possible.
Wow, 1000 days!? My state government just issued their goals, which is 70% of the over-16 population in our state to be vaccinated within about four months (5.6M people, 50k/day). Apparently we are at about 30k/day right now, constrained by supply.
Post by: Frumple on January 14, 2021, 08:03:21 pm
Just one of those reminders new york has a population of about 20 million, so... yeah.
Post by: Iduno on January 14, 2021, 08:11:06 pm
1000 days would be about 19k per day for new york, yeah, though the work day thing extends that. For what that's worth. Still pretty shit.
Just one of those reminders new york has a population of about 20 million, so... yeah.
Oh, I thought the population was lower. They were averaging 4-5k per day, until Cuomo got involved.
Post by: martinuzz on January 15, 2021, 07:35:40 am
Norway doesn't want to wait for the results, and has already added a warning to the prescription that the vaccin is not suitable for vulnerable elderly.
Shit. The moderna vaccin is what our government intends to use exclusively for the vulnerable elderly.
On behalf of the Norse medicine agency, Steinar Madsen issued a statement: "The deaths are likely caused by the usually mild side effects of the vaccin. If you are very vulnerable, it is likely not a good idea to be vaccinated."
There goes the plan to vaccinate everyone, down the drain. Worrisome, since most countries' vaccination strategy involves vaccinating the vulnerable groups (and those working with them) first.
Post by: Starver on January 15, 2021, 03:45:28 pm
UK has determined the Brazil strain isn't as bad feared, but is also closing all international travel corridors for a month (not sure how tightly[1]). Also, we no longer think therapeutic plasma is actually as useful as we thought.
[1] Especially not sure how that works with the Scottish fishermen who are actually going to Denmark to directly sell their catches, due to the simultaneous but largely unrelated total mess over UK/EU trade.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 16, 2021, 04:48:01 am
Shit. The EU started an investigation, after 13 elderly people died in Norway after being vaccinated with the Moderna vaccin.29 actually. Out of 33000 norwelgians vaccinated, mostly in elderly and at-risk groups. And that's an investigation for potential side effects, it doesnt actually mean any of the 29 died from the vaccine.
Norway doesn't want to wait for the results, and has already added a warning to the prescription that the vaccin is not suitable for vulnerable elderly.
Shit. The moderna vaccin is what our government intends to use exclusively for the vulnerable elderly.
On behalf of the Norse medicine agency, Steinar Madsen issued a statement: "The deaths are likely caused by the usually mild side effects of the vaccin. If you are very vulnerable, it is likely not a good idea to be vaccinated."
There goes the plan to vaccinate everyone, down the drain. Worrisome, since most countries' vaccination strategy involves vaccinating the vulnerable groups (and those working with them) first.
Care to guess the covid IFR in at-risk and elderly population? (Hint: significatively higher than 1 per 1000). Well, dont worry, the way the pandemic is going you wont have to guess.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 16, 2021, 05:41:45 am
Shit. The EU started an investigation, after 13 elderly people died in Norway after being vaccinated with the Moderna vaccin.Apparently the moderna vaccines pose a risk for high frailty patients but are still safely usable for most ppl
Norway doesn't want to wait for the results, and has already added a warning to the prescription that the vaccin is not suitable for vulnerable elderly.
Shit. The moderna vaccin is what our government intends to use exclusively for the vulnerable elderly.
On behalf of the Norse medicine agency, Steinar Madsen issued a statement: "The deaths are likely caused by the usually mild side effects of the vaccin. If you are very vulnerable, it is likely not a good idea to be vaccinated."
There goes the plan to vaccinate everyone, down the drain. Worrisome, since most countries' vaccination strategy involves vaccinating the vulnerable groups (and those working with them) first.
Post by: martinuzz on January 16, 2021, 05:51:07 am
Just very unfortunate that our government intended the Moderna for use on vulnerable elderly, in january/february. Because most elderly care homes do not have super-fridges to keep the Pfizer cool. We might have to go back to the drawing table and re-think our vaccination logistics because of it. Which will inevitably delay things. Which is bad.
We have enough 'normal vehicles' to quickly distribute Moderna to all our elderly care homes in about 1 month. However, if we are going to have to rely on our limited fleet of special medical vehicles with super cooling, it will take months, if not years before we have vaccinated all elderly care homes.
The other option is to have them come to a central location, lke the rest of the population, but that has it's own problems. We're going to need a lot of volunteers to accompany immobile elderly to the vaccination location, and a lot of medically schooled security to keep demented patients and mentally retarded from stomping, kicking, biting, scratching, spitting and throwing poop at the medical staff, whereas if they are vaccinated in their own institutions, the local staff can manage.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 16, 2021, 06:42:02 am
We´ll see what comes from the analysis. For what I´ve seen they have been reported because it might have been a contributing factor. But it wouldn´t be the first time that after review it turned out not to be a contributing factor at all.Shit. The EU started an investigation, after 13 elderly people died in Norway after being vaccinated with the Moderna vaccin.Apparently the moderna vaccines pose a risk for high frailty patients but are still safely usable for most ppl
Norway doesn't want to wait for the results, and has already added a warning to the prescription that the vaccin is not suitable for vulnerable elderly.
Shit. The moderna vaccin is what our government intends to use exclusively for the vulnerable elderly.
On behalf of the Norse medicine agency, Steinar Madsen issued a statement: "The deaths are likely caused by the usually mild side effects of the vaccin. If you are very vulnerable, it is likely not a good idea to be vaccinated."
There goes the plan to vaccinate everyone, down the drain. Worrisome, since most countries' vaccination strategy involves vaccinating the vulnerable groups (and those working with them) first.
Even if it was: it´s still probably safer than risking getting covid for those people. I would think any high frailty patient is likely to be at high risk of severe covid. A friend of mine told me that in her former nursing home (which I think might represent a good selection of frail patients of various ages) in Madrid covid killed 60 out of 180 inpatients.
Post by: martinuzz on January 16, 2021, 04:00:33 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 17, 2021, 12:18:14 pm
They were allowed to protest with max 500 man in the Westerpark, but instead thousands of people occupied the Museumplein.
They have been dispersed with water cannons backed by mounted police and K9 units.
Those silly enough to fight the police met the hard end of police batons. Several arrests were made.
Most protestors have been dispersed by now, but now a new group arrives, Ajax (Amsterdam's football team) football hooligans, their club is playing a match without audience against nemesis Feyenoord today.
Post by: Starver on January 17, 2021, 12:38:24 pm
The other day, a car was stopped for speeding on the motorway (again, very unlucky, that seems to be very rare), having travelled practically across half the country and one of the highest main roads (M62, over the Pennines) in heavy snow conditions 'for a takeaway' (I get the impression they'd got it, and were hurrying back home). The car turned out to contain members of three different households who probably shouldn't have been mixing, so not just the driver was ticketed/etc.
Haven't seen anything about protests, here, in the last week, though, just regular covidiocity. Water-cannon would havevbeen interesting during the cold-snap (but I think they're not actually allowed outside Norn Irnd, even if Boris apparently bought some for London when he was still Mayor).
Post by: LordBaal on January 17, 2021, 12:56:21 pm
Here in theory we have a week of strict confinement and a week of stricter confinement. People don't protest because every one is so busy not fucking starving that there is not much time or energy left for it. Occasional protests for the usual (domestic gas, gasoline, electricity, and medicine shortages) still erupt here and there but that is just SNAFU.
As long business have someone at the door with a alcohol spray and some of those rugs submerged on alcohol and more or less try to respect the assigned maximum number or patrons no one pays attention.
On the stricter week no one is supposed to get out but people still do, and non medical and food business operate with their doors closed. Everyone knows, nobody cares.
Since our migration have already taken away a rather large chunk of young doctors looking for greener pastures our medical pool consists mostly of a ever diminishing group of third age doctors that are specially vulnerable to covid and are dying like flies at alarming rates... I tell you guys is some movie worth stuff how most of them keep working. A few days ago a doctor in my city died, his last procedure was to deliver his own grandson.
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 17, 2021, 02:52:43 pm
Post by: Caz on January 17, 2021, 03:01:09 pm
Post by: Starver on January 17, 2021, 03:24:54 pm
Hwyl fawr, Saeson!
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 17, 2021, 05:41:27 pm
"What's a lockdown? I thought I was in England"
People have claimed not to know English laws didn't apply in Wales. Seriously.
Post by: Caz on January 17, 2021, 05:53:37 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 17, 2021, 05:59:25 pm
Post by: TD1 on January 17, 2021, 06:28:54 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 17, 2021, 06:42:09 pm
Post by: Starver on January 17, 2021, 06:55:29 pm
...but, in actual UK Covid news, apparently there's a repeat of the 1857 Indian Rebellion situaton. Some people have apparently been spreading lies that the vaccine contains beef and/or pork product, causing a higher than expected number of refusals to partake amongst the related ethnic groups.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 17, 2021, 06:59:44 pm
but Whales is an English colony innit?
Not really a "colony." Britain is a union of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 17, 2021, 07:01:53 pm
Cofiwch Dryweryn!Fuuuuck, that sounds like some racists being creatively hateful. I hate this. It's kinda ironic because most of our (USA) loonies seem to actually believe the vaccine is bad (or the virus is fake). This seems like people who believe in the vaccine, and want... want certain people to die from the virus. Disgusting.
...but, in actual UK Covid news, apparently there's a repeat of the 1857 Indian Rebellion situaton. Some people have apparently been spreading lies that the vaccine contains beef and/or pork product, causing a higher than expected number of refusals to partake amongst the related ethnic groups.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 17, 2021, 07:05:12 pm
Assuming it's even true, that is. This smells of an "I heard that..."
Post by: Akura on January 17, 2021, 07:11:48 pm
Think she'll get sick once I do get it? Because I intend to at some point.
Post by: Starver on January 17, 2021, 07:27:12 pm
Scotland and EnglandAndWales merged with James VI of Scotland assuming the English crown (then being James I of England) in 1603. The prior 'personal union' with the Lordship/Kingdom of Ireland was quite a bit more messier to integrate (and, later, to deintegrate), some might argue.)
I haven't seen much about who is stirring up the beef/pork thing (only that someone is, and efforts are being made to prove otherwise), but I'm as inclined to believe that it's internal 'elements' (who do or do not believe in the truth, either way, but want to stir things up either way and probably convinced their own close cadre of 'useful idiots' as the first step in multiplying the message) as external agitators. For one thing, even behind the pseudonimity of social media, it's going to be a less convincing message from 'your average skinhead' than 'the kind of person you might go to mosque/temple/whatever with'.
But until I see actual examples of who such provocative sources actually are, it's a completely open question without any good answers.
Post by: Caz on January 17, 2021, 09:02:14 pm
Not really a "colony." Britain is a union of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland.
I can't believe you've done this.
Post by: Ziusudra on January 17, 2021, 09:08:07 pm
Post by: Iduno on January 17, 2021, 10:22:14 pm
Cofiwch Dryweryn!
...but, in actual UK Covid news, apparently there's a repeat of the 1857 Indian Rebellion situaton. Some people have apparently been spreading lies that the vaccine contains beef and/or pork product, causing a higher than expected number of refusals to partake amongst the related ethnic groups.
Which is wild, because how even would you make the vaccine out of pork? Or meat?
Post by: wierd on January 17, 2021, 11:27:11 pm
However, vaccine should not be made from such things. Yeast should be sufficient for most tasks in mRNA synthesis, no?
Post by: martinuzz on January 18, 2021, 05:23:38 am
I'm fairly sure islamic religious scholars tend to make exceptions to dietary taboos in life or death situations.
Yes indeed they do. Diabetics are exempt from ramadan fasting, and muslims are allowed to consume alcohol that is part of a medical prescription (since there's quite a few medicines which come in alcohol solution)
Post by: scriver on January 18, 2021, 07:29:16 am
Cofiwch Dryweryn!
...but, in actual UK Covid news, apparently there's a repeat of the 1857 Indian Rebellion situaton. Some people have apparently been spreading lies that the vaccine contains beef and/or pork product, causing a higher than expected number of refusals to partake amongst the related ethnic groups.
Which is wild, because how even would you make the vaccine out of pork? Or meat?
Fanatics with a persecution complex have an ability to convince themselves of the strangest things. I am sure you're already familiar with a ton of examples from your American home garden, both regarding vaccines and other things ;)
I'm fairly sure islamic religious scholars tend to make exceptions to dietary taboos in life or death situations.
Yes indeed they do. Diabetics are exempt from ramadan fasting, and muslims are allowed to consume alcohol that is part of a medical prescription (since there's quite a few medicines which come in alcohol solution)
If all religious people gave heed to what the reasonable theologians say as much as they do the extremist ones the world undoubtedly be a much better place.
Also, I'm not sure how correctly I'm recalling this, but I seem to remember that there was (or used to be) already an aversion against vaccinations among Muslims in Africa based on a fairly extremest interpretation of their "do not defile the body" rule?
Edit: Among extremist groups, that is
Post by: martinuzz on January 18, 2021, 07:47:21 am
Post by: feelotraveller on January 18, 2021, 12:48:38 pm
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/indonesia-muslim-body-declares-chinese-vaccine-halal/2103519 (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/indonesia-muslim-body-declares-chinese-vaccine-halal/2103519)
Quote
Indonesia’s top Muslim body on Friday declared China’s Sinovac vaccine for COVID-19 halal, or permissible under Islam.
...the decision was taken based on a plenary session discussing the ingredients and production processes for the coronavirus vaccine made by the Chinese company, Sinovac Lifescience Co.
Post by: martinuzz on January 18, 2021, 05:12:44 pm
The Norse government has added a mild warning to the prescription that the vaccin might not be safe for the very frail.
Post by: Akura on January 19, 2021, 04:42:50 pm
Post by: Iduno on January 19, 2021, 11:14:55 pm
The numbers for those are insignificant compared to the number of (non-extremist, your average Joe) Africans, who refuse the vaccin because they think it's a white hoax to sterilise them.
Which, given history, isn't an unreasonable concern. Which company sold sickle cell medicines to kids in Africa that were contaminated with HIV, because they couldn't sell them in the US/Europe?
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 20, 2021, 06:31:51 am
Post by: wierd on January 20, 2021, 06:38:21 am
* That is, he wants people to simultaneously "Stay home" and observe the lockdown, but does not want any of that economic downturn, what with only just recently finishing the BREXIT deal, and it being pretty high profile, and all that. As such, you should all find a way to continue your service industry jobs, without actually being there to provide service. Somehow.
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 06:52:18 am
The South-African and the Amazone variant of the virus are capable of infecting people who already had the 'original' corona.
While there have been cases of reinfection with the original virus, these were extremely rare.
The South African and Amazone mutations however, seem to be able to infect up to half of those who have already had corona, a series of studies with the blood of recovered patients has shown. The antibodies in the blood of half of the test group did nothing at all to combat the new variants.
There are no indications yet that this means the vaccins will also be less effective against those variants.
Virologist are very worried though, to see how quickly the virus can develop immunity resistance.
It will likely mean that we will need to develop new vaccins every year, just like with the flu.
Virologists think that the modern vaccins that focus on spike proteins might not be the best solution, because this is where the virus is very mutable. They advise pahrma companies to go back to the drawing table and start developing 'old-fashioned' vaccins, made from virus particles.
"For now, best we can do is keep vaccinating and cross our fingers".
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 06:56:44 am
Virologist worldwide ring the alarm bells.These are all in vitro provisional results. I'd take them with a pinch of salt.
The South-African and the Amazone variant of the virus are capable of infecting people who already had the 'original' corona.
While there have been cases of reinfection with the original virus, these were extremely rare.
The South African and Amazone mutations however, seem to be able to infect up to half of those who have already had corona, a series of studies with the blood of recovered patients has shown. The antibodies in the blood of half of the test group did nothing at all to combat the new variants.
There are no indications yet that this means the vaccins will also be less effective against those variants.
Virologist are very worried though, to see how quickly the virus can develop immunity resistance.
It will likely mean that we will need to develop new vaccins every year, just like with the flu.
Virologists think that the modern vaccins that focus on spike proteins might not be the best solution, because this is where the virus is very mutable. They advise pahrma companies to go back to the drawing table and start developing 'old-fashioned' vaccins, made from virus particles.
"For now, best we can do is keep vaccinating and cross our fingers".
I'll get worried about the new variants if we start to get reinfections or breakthrough infections left and right, because there is nothing else I can do. Variants are everywhere, I'll continue wearing ffp3 everywhere no matter what, but tbh I'd be surprised if the impact on vaccinated or covid survivors was the same as the original covid when noone had prior exposure
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 07:00:07 am
The Amazon mutant is thought to be responsible for the current outbreak in Manaus.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/virologen-slaan-alarm-coronamutanten-kunnen-opnieuw-infecteren~b2340b33/
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 07:04:45 am
There's literally 0 things we can do about this crap at an individual level anyway barring continuing the precautions well beyond getting the vaccine.
And doing a serious effort to suppress the virus of course but our goverments decided thar they'd rather "live with it" so here we stand.
Edit RUH OH TURNS OUT THAT THERE ARE REINFECTIONS LEFT AND RIGHT IN SOUTH AFRICA. DO PANIC
https://mg.co.za/coronavirus-essentials/2021-01-19-can-you-get-reinfected-with-covid-19-sa-has-4-000-potential-reinfections/
Edit: mind you: a study about HCW showed that 10% of them got covid reinfections. So it could be that covid infection immunity is not that great to begin with
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 07:12:41 am
These new variants are up to more than 50%.
So yeah, do panic.
But yeah, HCW at 10%, that's possible, they are exposed to the virus more, and more often than the general population. Plus, if they wore protection and still got corona, it is likely they got it only very mildly (only inhaling a small viral load to begin with), which makes reinfection more likely.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 07:18:39 am
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1.full.pdf+html
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 07:19:36 am
As far as I am aware, reinfection cases with the original Covid are rare, in the less than 1% spectrum.I want to emphasize again that this is invitro. It does not necessarily represent the real clinical picture
These new variants are up to more than 50%.
So yeah, do panic.
Quote
But yeah, HCW at 10%, that's possible, they are exposed to the virus more, and more often than the general population. Plus, if they wore protection and still got corona, it is likely they got it only very mildly (only inhaling a small viral load to begin with), which makes reinfection more likelyWell that begs the question that they were wearing protection (and the type of protection)
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 07:20:21 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 07:22:50 am
It's unsure if it will really happen, because parliament is very divided on it (curfew still has very strong WW2 associations here), city mayors are very divided on it and police forces have already told the government that they do not have the manpower to enforce it.
Meanwhile, fucktards are buying winter coats with food delivery logo from online marketplaces, so they can ignore the curfew by pretending they are food deliverers.
EDIT: furthermore, the government will adjust the advise to only have two visitors max, to 1 visitor max. It's an advise, not a law, because it is not legally possible to enforce in private space like homes. We would need to change the constitution for that. That takes at least 4 years (a change in constitution over here needs to be ratified by two consecutive parliaments and senates, we have elections every 4 years)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 07:34:24 am
True, but anti-bodies not working in vitro is a pretty good indication of them not working in the wild either.Things are more nuanced than that. If you go to the source it's not so much thst their antibodies did not work as that their titres were much lower
Look at the source
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.18.427166v1.full.pdf+html
Quote
SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 lineageshows high levels ofresistance to convalescent plasma/sera.We next sought to evaluate the effect of 501Y.V2spikemutations on polyclonal plasma/seraderived from individualsinfected with SARS-CoV-2, including individuals whowere hospitalised for severe COVID-19. Sampleswere divided into two groups, halfwithhighertitre neutralizing antibodies (22 of 44,ID50>400)and half with lowertitres(22 of 44,400 >ID50>25) to the original SARS-CoV-2 D614G lineage (Fig.2a-left). Consistent with previous studies27, whenstratified by disease severity,convalescent individuals who reported mild to moderate disease developed substantially lower neutralizing antibody titres(average ID50 titre488, n=30) than severely ill individuals from the hospitalizedcohorts (average ID50 titre 4212, n=14).When these same samples were assessed against the 501Y.V2 virus, nearly half (21 of 44, 48%) had no detectable neutralization activity, with only three samples (7%) retaining titresof ID50>400 (Fig.2a-right). Notably, all three of these samples were obtainedfrom individuals reporting severe disease who had some of the highest neutralization titres against the original virus. To define the
So TLDR: they had two groups of 22 people. Half had a lot of antibodies because they had severe disease, half had less antibodies due to milder disease.
When tested against the new variant there were 21 that had no detectable neutralizing atb activity but if you look at the graph, they predictably match for the most part the ones that had lower atb titres to begin with, with a couple of outliers that didnt show it despite having higher titres (so maybe 5-10%?)
Notably: this does not necessarily mean that any of those guys will have the same SARS as the first time. That they have lower quantities of circulating antibodies doesnt mean that they wont produce higher quantities when reexposed to the disease, or a variant (they are not immune naive to the virus anymore). I'd expect at least a degree of cross reactivity
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 07:47:37 am
Among those were 69 people who had already received the second dose of the vaccin.
So it looks like the Pfizer is doing what it's supposed to be doing, or maybe even better. It was expected that it would offer about 60% protection after the first shot, and 95% after the second dose.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 08:15:18 am
I think that it was (once again) based on antibody titres more than clinical data.
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 08:26:21 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 08:34:48 am
The disappointment I understand comes from the level of antibodies produced by a single vaccine dose which was expected to be higher.
Again: the usual caveats: the raw numbers of infected dont give you something you can compare 1 to 1, and there is more to immunity to antibody levels.
And a third one: real world data does not necessarily match trial data as it includes a lot of factors that are not present in trials.
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 11:43:57 am
Our (demissionary) minister of Health has decided that the interval between the first and second dose of the Pfizer vaccin can be safely extended to 6 weeks (from 3 weeks), based on the research done by Pfizer. That way, more people can get their first dose sooner.
In response, Pfizer has stated that there is no guarantee that the vaccin will be effective if the interval is 6 weeks.
Our national Health Council, our Outbreak Management Team, and our College for Drug Evaluation (the institute that determines whether medicine are allowed on the dutch market) support our minister's view, instead of Pfizer's.
This is bad, both ways. If Pfizer's right, that means we're wasting precious vaccin.
If our minister is right, this will feed the opinion that Pfizer is just in it for quick sales and money, decreasing willingness to be vaccinated further.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 12:00:06 pm
Note that pfizer says there's no guarantee: this is exactly what it says om the tin. They're not saying it will or wont work. They are saying they wont be liable if western goverments start homebrrewing their own vaccination calendars out of convenience or hysteria, and it turns out it doesnt work as expected.
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 12:03:52 pm
I still view it not as much as incompetence, but more, like our prime minister (who I am not a fan of, but think he did word this right) said, helplessness.
"We must make 100% of decisions with 50% information".
At least our government had the balls to admit they don't know what they are doing 50% of the time.
Can you blame a headless chicken running around for having it's head chopped off?
Note that Germany, France and Denmark have already increased the interval from 3 to 6 weeks, before we did.
So yeah... Trust... I trust our government do sincerely try their best within their capabilities and limitations, but I do not trust them to make the right choices all the time.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 12:37:39 pm
Quote
Note that Germany, France and Denmark have already increased the interval from 3 to 6 weeks, before we did.
Note that I've been saying for a while now that Euro pandemic management has been shitty and dishonest all across the continent. 🤷♂️
Post by: Starver on January 20, 2021, 02:59:39 pm
Say, first doses give P1% protection at D1 days after administration (assume zero to P1 linearly to plateau, for simplicity) then second dose at W days shove to P2% protection after a further D2 days (ditto, and assuming nevligable fall-off between or after). Then for a rate of doses available, what actually is the optimal W (prior to actual first-dose saturation) such that losing the P2-P1 advantage is countered by additional P1 coverages.
For two doses, you'd obviously be best to first-dose two different people immediately (rather than wait... assuming you could do with the second... to maximise just one), yet first-dosing-only until saturation may cover everyone with some degree of (idealised) protection but under-perform on the big picture while you continue to lose one-dosers through the more fragile safety net you stretched out.
It gets even more complicated as you plug in the conplexities of the SIR model (or SEIR, or S(E)I(R|D)S, etc) and need to work beyond a dimensionless "sum total protective factor" and instead get into the (unrelated) R-factor and small-world-networking effect which may dictate alternate priorities and then waits for differing groups (try to amp up the known vulnerable and the known transmitting population protection, at the expense of hedged-bets collatoral protection to dampen unknown spreading beyond your known firewall dosings).
But I got some interesting graphs from simulation (fuzzing together a number of passes through a given model) even if I couldn't reduce it to an overarching statistical formula.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 20, 2021, 03:17:56 pm
Post by: Starver on January 20, 2021, 03:48:06 pm
But that's number-crunching I've not done myself, just what I've heard as having been done.
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2021, 03:57:11 pm
It's not that there's no funds for it, or that employers didn't want to cooperate...
Nope, it's cancelled because UWV, our government branch that is responsible for paying sick leaves, unemployment benefits, disability pay and since a year, corona support packages, doesn't have the time or manpower to deal with more support packages.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 20, 2021, 08:01:13 pm
Then maybe use some of those apparently sufficient funds to hire more workers?
Post by: feelotraveller on January 21, 2021, 02:01:27 am
Nope, it's cancelled because UWV, our government branch that is responsible for paying sick leaves, unemployment benefits, disability pay and since a year, corona support packages, doesn't have the time or manpower to deal with more support packages.
In the good ole days the UWV (USA Web Version) was the 'Doom help Service'. Still sort of appropriate though. lol.
-------------------------
Still dragging my feet with the prediction that I will get Covid-19 multiple times in my lifetime. But let's be honest, so many people in this thread are in just as bad faith denial as governments (generally) worldwide as to the likelihoods and actualities of the pandemic. No we are not there yet... maybe getting towards halfway if we happen to live in the very best of worlds, which we almost certainly don't... and hardly begun if we live in the very worst of worlds, which again we almost certainly don't... Clinging to a warm and fuzzy chimera leads directly to panic when it almost inevitably turns into hot air.
Post by: Duuvian on January 21, 2021, 02:47:58 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 21, 2021, 03:50:22 am
Should extra effort and focus be on slowing if not containing the new mutations until more is known about them, such as the efficacy of existing vaccines?🤷♂️
Sure but you can't selectively slow down one strain. You need to suppress the whole thing.
For that matter even if the worst predictions about the strains come true, vanilla covid is still horrible and the vast majority of people havent had it. No big difference if its regular or new covid19 driving you into ICU...
Btw: I'm going to make a prediction: if it comes to worst and indeed current vaccines provide no protection against the strains (which I think its unlikely, but who knows) what will happen is that the west will take up pfizer's offer to cook up another mrna vaccine in 6 weeks and it will be under extreme rules: minimal or no trials (possibly a short phase 1), immediate deployment as fast as it can be produced... I reslly hope we dont get there.
Post by: wierd on January 21, 2021, 04:05:02 am
(But on the flipside, this kind of thing is long in the tooth, and has been ready to happen for nearly a century now. Humans in general have this nasty habit of thinking they are the dominant lifeforms on this planet, and not the micro-organisms.)
Post by: martinuzz on January 21, 2021, 04:09:27 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 21, 2021, 04:13:01 am
https://mobile.twitter.com/dylanhmorris/status/1345485553668661255
Quote
antigenic evolution will not necessarily make you completely "naive" to a pathogen you've seen before. You'll be less protected against *any* symptomatic disease, but you could still be very well protected against severe disease
Which is my POV on this thing. Covid19 was devastating because we are all naive. Non-naivety either by prior infection or by vaccines should improve outcomes, even in the scenarios we like least.
Post by: Iduno on January 21, 2021, 09:13:40 am
Disappointment amongst parents today, when our government announced there will be no paid corona leave.
It's not that there's no funds for it, or that employers didn't want to cooperate...
Nope, it's cancelled because UWV, our government branch that is responsible for paying sick leaves, unemployment benefits, disability pay and since a year, corona support packages, doesn't have the time or manpower to deal with more support packages.
People have an idea that it needs to be nearly impossible for the government to get more employees even in an emergency. Which causes a lot of infrastructure issues like this. It would help a lot if less of the resources went to military and the like, and we had invested in infrastructure at all in the last 50 years, but people need to be shot more than they need to get places or have water or healthcare.
Post by: martinuzz on January 21, 2021, 03:13:32 pm
But it appears it doesn't always quite work the way it was intended. Quite a few parents said that before the schools closed, they were working from home voluntarily, but now they had no choice than to go back to work in the office, because it was impossible to work from home with the kids around. So not only did it not decrease travel- and contact instances, as was intended, no, it created more.. Not just the parent going to work, but also the nanny they now had to hire to watch the kids.
Post by: Akura on January 21, 2021, 04:08:36 pm
Let's see if she chokes on these words, along with everything else, when she's coughing her last through a ventilator. This kind of stupid can't be cured with reason. Or at least, I don't have enough patience to try anymore.
Post by: LordBaal on January 21, 2021, 04:14:19 pm
Post by: Great Order on January 21, 2021, 04:15:40 pm
Hell, if theoretically the government tracked her with a chip in the vaccine, they'd get less information than the phone would give her because that does things like log texts and internet browsing.
Doubt it'd convince her, as it's often said you can't rationalise a person out of a position they didn't rationalise themselves into, but if the conversation pops up again you can give it a shot.
Post by: wierd on January 21, 2021, 04:35:54 pm
I pointed out to one of my nurses, the following things:
1) Biblical "mark of the beast" is used to enable currency transactions. It is used to buy and sell. RFID is not capable of this.
2) Even a minimalist chip, like an RFID tag, is FUCKING HUGE, and would need a goddamn cattle syringe to shoot you with. There is no way it would fit inside the damn needle they use to give the injection.
3) The technology to implant a device like this, requires the ENTIRE device be encapsulated, because of how damn corrosive/destructive the human body is to anything foreign inside it. This, combined with small things like-- ANTENNA PHYSICS--- means that the devices have hard limits on how small you can realistically make them. This makes sneaking them into your vaccination plan, a bit of a non-starter, that no amount of voodoo histrionics will make possible.
4) Due to the above, POWERING the device requires an outside power source, GREATLY reducing the functionality for it as an always-on tracking device.
Now, combine all that together, along with "They have conditioned you to always carry your goddamn cellphone with you, and your cellphone is able to conduct digital purchases", and you have a better case for your damn iPhone to be the "Mark of the beast" than that vaccine could ever imagine being.
But this kind of thing requires critically analyzing what is being claimed, and then rationally discarding it-- rather than just reacting with the desired fear, Uncertainty, Doubt that you have been instructed to perform.
Post by: LordBaal on January 21, 2021, 06:11:14 pm
Post by: Starver on January 21, 2021, 07:49:20 pm
On top of that, I don't think anyone in power is particularly interested on spending untold sums of money to spy on some random nobodies beyond mass surveys to make easier marketing products...Breaking News: freeonlinesurveys.com invented the Covids!
Post by: feelotraveller on January 22, 2021, 01:43:28 am
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jan/21/ioc-tokyo-olympic-games-will-go-ahead-athletics (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jan/21/ioc-tokyo-olympic-games-will-go-ahead-athletics)
A critic of the plan commented
Quote
"Basically the IOC and [the Tokyo organisers] are now doing a Donald Trump and ignoring reality.”
Post by: hector13 on January 22, 2021, 08:21:21 am
Very stupid, but unsurprising.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 22, 2021, 11:35:14 am
Post by: Starver on January 22, 2021, 02:13:39 pm
For the pomp, if they aren't already wired up for the 'pixels' in the stadium for the crowd, they could probably run a whole lot of telepresence units dotted around representative cardboard cutouts of audience-members. I'm thinking an array of Aibos wouldn't be beyond Japan, or something like the Double 3 "ipad-onna-segway" things. Which might be a way to do the parade of flags (flagbearers in person, leading a 'nation' of remotely-present countrymen/women, as Aibos do dancing from the edge of the parade route and the near-ubiquitous mass-synchronsed lit-drones do something fancy in the air above them).
Several issues to overcome. Covid-test nobbling, for example. But by a month before the games there should be slack in the immunisation programmes to arrange for all confirmed competitors to be given the most appropriate product, put into action pre-agreed travel and accomodation covid-security. It won't be full capacity, as previously anticipated, but assistance for every country should prioritise over massive contingents from any single nation (US, UK, etc), perhaps helped by voluntary/can't-be-helped inability to attend due to difficulties of the pre-selection season.
The paralympics will he harder to accomodate (particularly with those with the more life-limiting conditions that put them at additional risk, although I think that'd apply more to the separate Transplant Games) though they'll have found the issues with their forerunner competitors in the non-para games, which won't hurt to fine tune things.
Look, I'm not responsible for all this, without the pressures of either budget or healthcare weighing down upon me on top of all the prior (not insignificant) logistics for such a spectacle. But if Japan can't work out a big old 6G-powered audience with RFD track'n'trace over the olympic park area, then I'll honestly cease to believe they've been building a mechagodzilla beneath the velodrome or prepared to launch a Firey Phoenix up from beneath the waves at the sailing venue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 22, 2021, 02:28:49 pm
All other big sports are without audience from a year or so now.
Post by: Dostoevsky on January 22, 2021, 02:37:38 pm
So it seems like they will push ahead with the Olympics in Tokyo/July come hell or high water.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jan/21/ioc-tokyo-olympic-games-will-go-ahead-athletics (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jan/21/ioc-tokyo-olympic-games-will-go-ahead-athletics)
A critic of the plan commentedQuote"Basically the IOC and [the Tokyo organisers] are now doing a Donald Trump and ignoring reality.”
I vaguely recall Japan acting just like this last year until they abruptly changed position. Issue this time is that if they delay another year it puts them alongside the winter games.
Culturally speaking, among older Japanese at least the 1964 summer games (the last time they hosted summer) are a really big deal and were a huge investment in the country - they had been similarly preparing for the 2020 games, so they likely feel hugely invested in this for good or ill.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 22, 2021, 06:38:48 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 22, 2021, 06:45:52 pm
Post by: Frumple on January 22, 2021, 06:47:10 pm
At some point you're just, like, th'hell can I do? Can't really do anything about these suicidal typhoid mary fuckers. You batten down as well as you can and hope to survive :-\
Post by: Rolan7 on January 22, 2021, 10:24:56 pm
Not really an option for a lot of people, due to curfews, so I should take advantage of it more.
So it seems like they will push ahead with the Olympics in Tokyo/July come hell or high water.I, for one, will be boycotting this particular Olympics! I probably won't even watch it online I guess :P
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jan/21/ioc-tokyo-olympic-games-will-go-ahead-athletics (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/jan/21/ioc-tokyo-olympic-games-will-go-ahead-athletics)
A critic of the plan commentedQuote"Basically the IOC and [the Tokyo organisers] are now doing a Donald Trump and ignoring reality.”
Maybe they're going to cancel it again though, flip-flopping like last year. Let's hope.
Post by: Starver on January 22, 2021, 10:34:26 pm
I, for one, will be boycotting this particular Olympics!I too will boycott the 2020ish Olympics. I will compete in neither the Shotput, nor the Fencing, nor shall I even go within miles of the Ski-jump! Which effectively rules out the Post-Modern Triathlon, too!
Post by: LordBaal on January 22, 2021, 11:03:49 pm
Post by: King Zultan on January 23, 2021, 04:33:12 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 23, 2021, 05:36:34 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 23, 2021, 06:35:57 am
We have a curfew now, stay indoors between 21h and 4:30h.
Exceptions are made for people going to and coming from work, and caregivers on their way to nescessary care.
Those exceptions will need either a written statement from their employer, or they can download, print and sign a pre-made declaration made by the government.
So I call the police. "I am a caregiver. Sometimes the nurses from the elderly home my mom is in call me in the evening and I have to go there. Can you buy a printer for me so I can print out and sign such a declaration, I don't have a printer and cannot afford one. All shops that offer printing services are closed by the lockdown rules".
They can't. I guess I'll just have to risk being fined then, and see in court what a judge thinks of it.
Post by: coalboat on January 23, 2021, 07:16:48 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 23, 2021, 07:32:10 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 23, 2021, 07:44:38 am
(After 40 years of neocon government doing budget cut after budget cut on elderly care / healthcare in general, mantelzorg (literal translation: mantle care) has become the norm. The new world order adagium here is 'if you can find someone in your social network that can do basic welfare care things for you, you don't get professional care for that. And if you don't have a social network you are supposed to conjure one up from thin air)
Post by: wierd on January 23, 2021, 07:51:49 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 23, 2021, 07:52:12 am
I do know quite a few nurses by face now though, so asking them is still a good idea.
Post by: LordBaal on January 23, 2021, 08:11:04 am
Now, since you also seem to work in health care could not that help you out too?
Post by: Frumple on January 23, 2021, 08:17:03 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 23, 2021, 08:29:50 am
Just ask if is possible and in which way it would be. I would still take a usb drive with the thing just in case.
But please Frumple, we are trying to take over the nursery homes systems here, is a steep on our convoluted sting to stole the Spirit of St. Louis with Mr. Roboto
Post by: martinuzz on January 23, 2021, 08:54:52 am
My mom lives in a elderly home with two departments; Half of the building is for 'independant 55+ seniors', the other half is, well, basically an open geriatric ward.
My mom lives in the 55+ seniors half. She's 69, barely mobile, and suffers a variety of illnesses, including but not limited to diabetes, fibromyalgia, a history of bipolar episodes and anxiety issues. She's also stubborn as a mule.
But because she lives in the independant seniors part of the building, there is no in-house care. The only link to the nursing staff she has is an alarm button necklace for emergencies.
If my mom presses the emergency button, the nurses will usually call me if they're unsure what to do and I have to come over and judge the situation, because she is not their responsibility (unless there's a clear life or death situation ofcourse).
This could have ended pretty badly 2 years ago. Got a call late evening from the in-house nurses (an intern), said my mom pressed the button and they found her tilted backwards over the kitchen counter in a 90 degree angle, saying she couldn't get back up.
So they helped her up. She was still able to respond to their questions and seemed startled but lucid, so they thought she was okay, except that she had trouble with her balance and standing.
They called me and said "we don't know your mother, so we're not sure if this state of being is her normal state, or if something's wrong. Could you come and look?".
So I got on my bicycle and went over there. When I came in and saw my mom, I did not waste time and called 112. Ambulance came and rushed her to hospital.
She spent the next 4h on ICU with a heartrate of 160, and 39C fever. Discovered heart rythm disturbance. Got heartrate down with the right meds. They also discovered that she had beginning muscle dystrophia from lack of excercise. She spent 3 weeks in hospital recovering, couldn't stand or walk for a week.
Post by: martinuzz on January 24, 2021, 05:57:13 am
Post by: scriver on January 24, 2021, 09:35:52 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 24, 2021, 05:17:43 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on January 24, 2021, 05:22:38 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 24, 2021, 07:05:53 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 24, 2021, 07:24:18 pm
I understand being pissed at lockdown and how is pretty damaging to a lot of things. But doing further physical damage to other people propiety dont fix anything.
Post by: martinuzz on January 24, 2021, 07:36:40 pm
Post by: wierd on January 24, 2021, 07:58:24 pm
The PROBLEM, is that the anti-lockdown people do not want to be "Isolated, segregated" as part of a pathogen spread mitigation strategy.
They want the MAGICAL option, where they do whatever the fuck they want, and the virus just magically poofs itself away, somehow.
Since the doctors are part and parcel with the "Isolation, segregation" protocol that is just cramping their lifestyles so horribly--- naturally, they get on the receiving end of the violence.
There is no dealing with the irrational. The thing they want cannot be given to them. The thing they NEED--- They are rioting against.
Post by: Starver on January 24, 2021, 08:17:56 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 24, 2021, 10:15:57 pm
That was a few days ago though, maybe she died in the interim.
Post by: Starver on January 24, 2021, 10:39:28 pm
BTW, I see (some of) the dutch police dealing with their curfew-protesters are using wicker shields/bucklers. That tickles me. (Plus, augmented by the covering on the front to deal with the obvious anti-wicker attacks, I can see how they're probably better at absorbing blunt impacts better than the perspex/whatever clear types.)
Post by: martinuzz on January 25, 2021, 04:46:40 am
Sadly, they will probably all get away with something like 40h community service for punishment.
If it was up to me, I'd be on the phone with Putin now, offering to pay him if we can make use of his punishment camps in Siberia.
The head of the Police Union says that the dutch police have not seen this much violence in over 40 years. The police expect this isn't over yet. They expect riots to pop up for weeks to come.
EDIT: but there were no guns at least. People threw stones, knives, golf balls, molotovs, heavy fireworks, bicycles and a piano at the police but they didn't throw guns.
Post by: martinuzz on January 25, 2021, 08:35:20 am
EDIT: Meanwhile in France, the French set a dubious world record for Antivaxitis. According to official polls, 45% of the french population will 'refuse to be vaccinated', or 'probably refuse to be vaccinated'.
Post by: Teneb on January 25, 2021, 12:42:40 pm
Since the curfew started last saturday 21:00h, the dutch police has fined 5765 people for violating the curfew. That's only about 0.033% of the population, in about 40 hours, could be worse I guess.Meanwhile, here I am: hyped to become an alligator.
EDIT: Meanwhile in France, the French set a dubious world record for Antivaxitis. According to official polls, 45% of the french population will 'refuse to be vaccinated', or 'probably refuse to be vaccinated'.
(explanation: Murderer-in-Chief Bozonaro spouted that people who take the vaccine will become alligators. Also how boys will turn into girls and other transphobic nonsense.)
Post by: Vector on January 25, 2021, 01:59:55 pm
Meanwhile, here I am: hyped to become an alligator.
(explanation: Murderer-in-Chief Bozonaro spouted that people who take the vaccine will become alligators. Also how boys will turn into girls and other transphobic nonsense.)
OK, I laughed out loud. Good stuff.
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2021, 02:07:25 pm
Everyone can stop worrying about the annunaky tracking/poison, or both, probes on the vaccines.
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2021/01/25/600ee31d46163fd0298b45eb.html
Sorry, that was the only english link I could find.
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 25, 2021, 02:25:23 pm
Our city mayor used the words 'civil war' to describe yesterday's riots. 70 people have been arrested, more are expected when the police have the time to study the camera footage.
Sadly, they will probably all get away with something like 40h community service for punishment.
If it was up to me, I'd be on the phone with Putin now, offering to pay him if we can make use of his punishment camps in Siberia.
The head of the Police Union says that the dutch police have not seen this much violence in over 40 years. The police expect this isn't over yet. They expect riots to pop up for weeks to come.
EDIT: but there were no guns at least. People threw stones, knives, golf balls, molotovs, heavy fireworks, bicycles and a piano at the police but they didn't throw guns.
Hold up. A piano?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 25, 2021, 02:29:04 pm
HOLD ON EVERYONE!!!!! Wait a moment, Maduro just anounced we discovered the cure to coronavirus, the answer is on some droplets called Carvativir, througly tested for 9 months it was give to people on the brink of the dead and they came back.....
Everyone can stop worrying about the annunaky tracking/poison, or both, probes on the vaccines.
https://www.marca.com/en/lifestyle/2021/01/25/600ee31d46163fd0298b45eb.html
Sorry, that was the only english link I could find.
Quote
put under the tongue every four hours. “It is a totally harmless medicine. It does not have any kind of side effects🤔 if it has no effects it wont have any side effects.. 🤔
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2021, 02:35:57 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on January 25, 2021, 02:40:10 pm
(Note - do not consume diethylene glycol or use it to sweeten your Austrian wine, it is deadly)
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2021, 02:48:03 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on January 25, 2021, 03:09:03 pm
HOLD ON EVERYONE!!!!! Wait a moment, Maduro just anounced we discovered the cure to coronavirus, the answer is on some droplets called HydroxychloroquineFixed for you
Post by: martinuzz on January 25, 2021, 03:34:02 pm
Our city mayor used the words 'civil war' to describe yesterday's riots. 70 people have been arrested, more are expected when the police have the time to study the camera footage.
Sadly, they will probably all get away with something like 40h community service for punishment.
If it was up to me, I'd be on the phone with Putin now, offering to pay him if we can make use of his punishment camps in Siberia.
The head of the Police Union says that the dutch police have not seen this much violence in over 40 years. The police expect this isn't over yet. They expect riots to pop up for weeks to come.
EDIT: but there were no guns at least. People threw stones, knives, golf balls, molotovs, heavy fireworks, bicycles and a piano at the police but they didn't throw guns.
Hold up. A piano?
Well, yeah. The public use piano that we have in our station hall. Well they didn't throw it at the police, they just trashed it :(
More riots today in at least 5 cities and a couple of villages, and more mayors declaring state of emergency. More water cannons, tear gas, and police batons too.
EDIT: This seems to be (d)evolving into a contest between cities, who can trash and plunder the most.
EDIT: the corona testing locations in my city cancelled their appointments. No testing today, they could not guarantee the safety of patients because of the rioters.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2021, 05:03:10 pm
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2021, 06:56:28 pm
Rioters are the scum of the earthWe must violently protest against these riots!
(Plus, in totally-not-Brexit news, AstraZeneca vs Pfizer (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55805903) supply restrictions.)
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 06:37:40 am
They demand Pfizer explains themselves. According to Sweden, they had an agreement with Pfizer that they would pay for 5 doses per tube, and they demand to know why Pfizer is charging them for 6 doses per tube.
Meanwhile, dutch police are asking shopkeepers to please ignore privacy laws and keep their security footage for longer than 24h, so the police can use it to track rioters.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 26, 2021, 06:43:45 am
Sweden has temporarily stopped paying Pfizer for the vaccins.Do you mean that the other way around? Sweden getting 6 doses per tube instead of 5 seems like a better deal
They demand Pfizer explains themselves. According to Sweden, they had an agreement with Pfizer that they would pay for 5 doses per tube, and they demand to know why Pfizer is charging them for 6 doses per tube.
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 06:53:35 am
Sweden says it won't pay another dime until the EU renegotiates with Pfizer.
Post by: wierd on January 26, 2021, 06:54:17 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 26, 2021, 06:58:11 am
No. Pfizer is selling the same sized tube. They are just claiming that if you shake the bottle REAL good, and are REAL good at getting every drop out of the ampule, you can get a 6th vaccination out of it, and they DEMAND to be reimbursed for that shot.That's like demanding 20% more for a restaurant dish if you lick the plate
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 07:00:17 am
EDIT: Meanwhile, the city mayor of den Bosch was wondering why the riot police responded so late. Many stores were trashed and plundered.
The answer: our country was all out of riot police. Because there were so many mayors of so many towns that had requested the riot police, because there were signs on social media that there would be riots in their town, by the time the riots broke out in den Bosch all riot police was already deployed elsewhere. Some mayors are openly pondering asking for deployment of the army.
For many small store owners this will be the final blow, and they will have to file for bankrupcy. They were already down to their last reserves because of the lockdown. Insurance companies don't cover damages from riots.
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2021, 07:54:20 am
He spins the wheel.... annddd..it land on 5g and its magical waves are brainwsshing the mentally weak to become violent and fearful of made up things like 5g magical waves!
Thanks for coming tonigth! And may the odds be with you!
Join us tomorrow to another round of idiocy rulette, the program tha mocks why idiot people migth do idiotic things and we end up paying for their idiocy, NOW WITH ALIENS!
Fakeedit: seriusly dude, Im starting to worry about you security.
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 07:56:48 am
Sadly I am not making things up
Post by: feelotraveller on January 26, 2021, 08:29:37 am
I'm surprised it's breaking out like this so early - and in the Netherlands of all places - but I guess the toilet paper panic should have tipped us all off about the flimsyness of our current social fabric. Let's hope positive change comes from it all at the end of the day...
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2021, 08:34:38 am
I know you are not making it up, wish it was.
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 08:35:06 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2021, 08:50:52 am
It seems your country is going to a mini dark age of sorts and I know how much that sucks.
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 10:16:34 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2021, 10:19:55 am
Post by: Rolan7 on January 26, 2021, 12:39:59 pm
(Yeah, please stay safe... I'm going crazy too so I can understand why they're rioting, but also they're selfishly making everything worse, the jerks)
My mood today is more like this:
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/trash_compactor_party.png) (https://xkcd.com/2416/)
Post by: Starver on January 26, 2021, 01:22:59 pm
My mood today is more like this:I've been watching an explanation change about that, very amusingly. One bit starts(/started/will be starting) variously thus:
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/trash_compactor_party.png) (https://xkcd.com/2416/)
"Though there are a significant proportion of the population who seem to have returned being oblivious to the pandemic..."
"Though there is a significant proportion of the population that seems to have returned to being oblivious to the pandemic..."
"Though there is a significant proportion of the population who seem to have returned to being oblivious to the pandemic..."
I'm sure we has got amateur grammarians here who be much more consistent than those editors. What does you have thunk about this?
PPE: And now changed back to "Though there are a significant proportion of the population who seem to have returned to being oblivious to the pandemic..." again, it seem. Sorry... they seems. :P
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 02:06:12 pm
It is unknown as of yet when the pedofiles will be available to protect the daycare centers.
Post by: hector13 on January 26, 2021, 02:51:21 pm
Or Belgian.
Pretty sure you’re Dutch though.
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 02:53:56 pm
Police want to be able to recognize potential rioters on security footage, and be able to judge intent by facial expression when on patrol.
So if you now go to the supermarket, you can get fined for wearing a facemask on your way there, and you can get fined for not wearing a facemask inside the supermarket.
EDIT: dutch indeed. No, our ultras never were particularily bananas. This whole situation is unheard of. Football supporters sometimes riot and throw fireworks at the police, but we've never seen trashed shops or plundering before.
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2021, 04:38:06 pm
Post by: Bralbaard on January 26, 2021, 05:42:20 pm
Odd thing that the football supporters have seemingly switched sides tonight, there were reports of them being part of the riots over the last few days, now they seemingly support the police.
I'm as uncomfortable as Martinuzz with this sudden development, though I guess I should not complain if it means the end of this foolishness.
The decline in covid cases is slowing down now that the "british" variant is gaining ground. Better hope that this whole curfew thing is actually worth all the trouble. We should see the effects in a few days.
Post by: martinuzz on January 26, 2021, 06:44:18 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 02:51:31 am
https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/updates/summaryreport/en/
Makes me slightly worried though. If the corona lockdowns are over, how much more ill are we going to get from the flu for lack of training of our immune system with it when it comes back?
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on January 27, 2021, 03:29:05 am
The thing that interests me is if any of these flu strains lack a non-human reservoir. If so, we may have knocked out some of these strains permanantly.
Post by: wierd on January 27, 2021, 03:35:06 am
It is actually something like 4 distinct DNA entities, bundled together. This is how it can change so radically fast. (after a single infection) If you catch more than one strain of flu at once, the DNA that makes it into the flu capsid can be shuffled from the "deck" of DNA entities available, mixed-and-matched, allowing the next iteration of the virus to have different parentage, and different qualities.
For this reason, viral reservoir in say, birds, swine, and co, can sustain a wide variety of such combinations, when taken together.
COVID does not seem to have such "discrete DNA entities", and is instead just a single loop of DNA. It would suffer from not getting "sexual-like recombination in the host" that flu does.
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 10:03:59 am
Children older than 12 on the other hand, are getting more freedom. After months of solitude, they will be allowed again to meet with maximum 10 friends, as long as it is outdoors.
Post by: Starver on January 27, 2021, 10:05:04 am
As a side effect of the global anti-corona measures, the flu has been nearly eradicated.
Spoiler: 13/May/2020 (click to show/hide)
Post by: TamerVirus on January 27, 2021, 10:08:14 am
Post by: wierd on January 27, 2021, 10:09:40 am
EG, I draw, I knit/crochet, and I do tech-stuff. None of those require me to go be elbow-to-asshole with other people. I can just decide which I want to do that day, and do it, and stay happy and safe indoors, and socially distanced from anyone else.
Now, for those families that want their kid to be GREAT at soccer, AND at basketball, AND at baseball, AND take them to Judo, AND ... AND... where all those "AND" situations involve ANOTHER social setting, packed to the gills with more kids who's parents insist that they go and do those things---
SURE-- YES-- PLEASE LIMIT THAT.
But "hobby" is not the same thing as "Shit I make my kid do to keep them occupied, and out of trouble, that keeps them so engaged socially that they have no time to think or do anything else."
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 10:12:47 am
For example, take the Belgian elections.. Over here in the Netherlands, we vote every 4 years to determine which of the political parties are going to form the new government for the coming 4 years... In Belgium, they vote every 4 years to determine which of the political parties are going to fail to form a new government the coming 4 years.
Post by: Starver on January 27, 2021, 10:14:47 am
Starting this weekend, children under the age of 12 in Belgium are no longer allowed to have more than one hobby. They will have to make hard life choices whether they rather play football or guitar.They should take inspiration from (if they don't want to actually take up) Chess-Boxing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_boxing)... All hail the rise of Frisbee-Skate-Stamp-Painting-Fishing-Treehouses!
Post by: Frumple on January 27, 2021, 10:15:10 am
And, like, limiting how much group stuff the folks in society least capable of following basic precautions is getting up to isn't really that bad of an idea, in the abstract, y'know? Implementation sounds like it might be sorta' scuffed, tho'.
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 10:17:26 am
As for enforcement, the Belgian government has said that they trust the parents to be responsible.
Haha. We've seen were that has lead to here, saying to trust the people to be responsible.
THEY KILL POOR INNOCENT PIANOS.
EDIT: in other news, the row between the EU and AstraZeneca escalates. AstraZeneca refuses to talk to Brussels.
Merkel is now preparing the German troops to invade the UK, to secure the vaccin.
This should be a breeze now that the UK is grounding all it's planes.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 27, 2021, 10:49:03 am
As a side effect of the global anti-corona measures, the flu has been nearly eradicated.It doesn´t work on a training basis. Anyway, my suspicion is that it´s not quite true, or rather, that there´s more to the story than that. I think it´s a combination of "not looking for the flu" (eg negative PCR patients with covid-like symptoms) and the ones who would get very sick with the flu being very sick with covid
https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/updates/summaryreport/en/
Makes me slightly worried though. If the corona lockdowns are over, how much more ill are we going to get from the flu for lack of training of our immune system with it when it comes back?
Nah no translation garble. The word for hobby in both Belgian and english is hobby.
As for enforcement, the Belgian government has said that they trust the parents to be responsible.
Haha. We've seen were that has lead to here, saying to trust the people to be responsible.
THEY KILL POOR INNOCENT PIANOS.
EDIT: in other news, the row between the EU and AstraZeneca escalates. AstraZeneca refuses to talk to Brussels.
Merkel is now preparing the German troops to invade the UK, to secure the vaccin.
This should be a breeze now that the UK is grounding all it's planes.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/we-have-not-pulled-out-astrazeneca-will-meet-eu-to-discuss-vaccine-delivery-delays-1.4469022
Quote
‘We have not pulled out’: AstraZeneca will meet EU to discuss vaccine delivery delaysIf they didn´t pull out no wonder the EU is pissed. That´s 18 years of bad luck.
EU Commission had earlier said the pharmaceutical company was refusing to attend
Post by: Starver on January 27, 2021, 10:58:09 am
This should be a breeze now that the UK is grounding all it's planes.That's what we want you to think!!! (https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/pilotless-raf-fighter-jet-can-23382972) (Although by the time they're developed, the place they're being made at will probably be outwith the UK and in the EU again. :P)
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 11:00:37 am
Anyway, my suspicion is that it´s not quite true, or rather, that there´s more to the story than that. I think it´s a combination of "not looking for the flu" (eg negative PCR patients with covid-like symptoms) and the ones who would get very sick with the flu being very sick with covid
Nope, clinical virologist Mariet Feltkamp says that all patients with pneumonia like symptoms in hospital were tested for 14 virusses, including flu. None of the test showed any sign of influenza in the labs.
"we have not found a single case of the flu. If all our labs cannot find any influenza, we have to assume it is no longer circulating"
It's just that the R value for influenza is much lower than that for corona to start with. All our corona measures might have trouble getting corona's R down, but they had no trouble stopping the spread of influenza.
EDIT: of all 200863 flu-like symptoms investigated by the WHO between january and february (which is normally high peak flu season) worldwide, 409 (0,2%) were actually the flu.
The 40 GPs in the Netherlands that have a sample function for keeping track of airway afflictions, take samples from all their patients with airway complaints and send them to the lab. They 'have not seen a single case of flu or RS virus in months'.
People still get the sniffles though, but those are all either corona, or rhinovirusses (common cold). Rhinovirusses are much more sturdy, they can survive longer outside of a host body.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 27, 2021, 11:32:03 am
Quote
Nope, clinical virologist Mariet Feltkamp says that all patients with pneumonia like symptoms in hospital were tested for 14 virusses, including fluKeywords bolded. I've seldom seen people tested for the flu outside hospital.
Not saying its not much lower mind you, just that the single digit figures that are being reported likely underestimate the real number
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 11:59:20 am
Usually, old people flock the hospitals when it's flu season.
The 40 sample GPs over here also don't look at patients in hospital, they look at general population coming in with complaints that range from mild to severe. They found none at all as well.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 27, 2021, 12:08:50 pm
Complete lack of hospitalization from the flu is a pretty good indicator of it's occurence in general.There might be a competing risk that is sending old patients to the hospital and thus skewering that as an indicator. Just saying...
Usually, old people flock the hospitals when it's flu season.
Quote
The 40 sample GPs over here also don't look at patients in hospital, they look at general population coming in with complaints that range from mild to severe. They found none at all as well.More numbers would be appretiated. How many people did they screen for the flu?
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 01:01:16 pm
Post by: McTraveller on January 27, 2021, 01:15:33 pm
No. Pfizer is selling the same sized tube. They are just claiming that if you shake the bottle REAL good, and are REAL good at getting every drop out of the ampule, you can get a 6th vaccination out of it, and they DEMAND to be reimbursed for that shot.
Stupid governments, contracts should have been by the mL or whatever, not the dose.
More efficient use of resources should be rewarded, not penalized.
On the flip side, I imagine the pharmas' liability scales with doses, not mL of liquid. So perhaps some balance is warranted...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 27, 2021, 01:32:25 pm
I have a couple of micro acquaitances, I could ask them their take.
I´d not take for granted that this will pan out well for the pharma company. In Europe Good Faith laws are common, and even if they dont apply, two can play at the game of finding loopholes.No. Pfizer is selling the same sized tube. They are just claiming that if you shake the bottle REAL good, and are REAL good at getting every drop out of the ampule, you can get a 6th vaccination out of it, and they DEMAND to be reimbursed for that shot.
Stupid governments, contracts should have been by the mL or whatever, not the dose.
More efficient use of resources should be rewarded, not penalized.
On the flip side, I imagine the pharmas' liability scales with doses, not mL of liquid. So perhaps some balance is warranted...
I think in the US there´s talk about intervening Moderna under the war act, while Europe is talking about blocking all vaccine exports using the existing trade laws. I dont think anything like this has arisen in China because, well, Chinese pharma companies know better than to piss off the Central Committee.
I think we might see laws curtailing corporate power in the next few months and years, if these pharmaceutical companies insist on pissing off large power blocks.
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2021, 01:35:16 pm
They are selected as a representative sample group for all GP practices in the Netherlands, and they send test samples to the lab from every patient that comes in with airway complaints.
Post by: martinuzz on January 28, 2021, 04:25:19 am
Teachers, pedagogues and child psychologists are begging the government to please re-open the schools
Post by: Starver on January 28, 2021, 01:23:20 pm
Boris was in Scotland today to 'inspect' a Lighthouse Laboratory (that probably had to cut down on its work to let him and the press-pack visit), much against the wishes of Nicola. Blatant.
Spoiler: Off-covid (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on January 28, 2021, 03:25:49 pm
In North China, people are now being tested for corona anally.
According to Chinese scientist, using anal samples can detect corona in people who tested negative on throat and nose swabs.
Inb4 Biden opens up Area51 to the public as emergency anal probing centre
Post by: Vector on January 28, 2021, 05:00:27 pm
The Big Gay is conspiring with The Corona to invade our rectal cavities.Think of the childr-no waitleave room for Jesu-no hmmthey're putting the tracking devices up thereah shit
I needed that chuckle, thank you
Post by: Starver on January 28, 2021, 05:16:00 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 28, 2021, 05:23:34 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 29, 2021, 05:04:47 am
A property owner had gone to court, to ask permission to evict two bars / restaurants, because they hadn't paid rent in months.
The bar and restaurant's defense in court was they didn't pay the rent because of corona (bars and pubs were closed during the first lockdown, briefly re-opened in summer, and closed again in october, so yeah, duh, they can't pay rent because they have had zero income for about a year now)
The judge ruled that they cannot be evicted, and also ruled that the property owner can only charge half of the normal rent for as long as the lockdown continues.
This verdict will have massive consequences, all bars and pubs can now demand their rent is halved. Perhaps all retail stores too, although those have only been closed for a few months now.
Post by: Bumber on January 29, 2021, 06:05:54 am
Good news for those people who are afraid of having things shoved up their nose and throat!
In North China, people are now being tested for corona anally.
According to Chinese scientist, using anal samples can detect corona in people who tested negative on throat and nose swabs.
Inb4 Biden opens up Area51 to the public as emergency anal probing centre
(http://www.quickmeme.com/img/d2/d258860ed9953d461c519f51476dbd58fe52595421307590671bb272ad8502ce.jpg)
Post by: scriver on January 29, 2021, 07:54:12 am
Post by: Jimmy on January 29, 2021, 09:45:15 am
Here in kangaroo land we're holding out well against further waves. I'm sad we've paused the travel bubble with the kiwis, but I'm hopeful we'll be back to importing half their population over here soon.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 29, 2021, 10:31:41 am
Post by: Starver on January 29, 2021, 10:48:31 am
Post by: TD1 on January 29, 2021, 11:16:16 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 29, 2021, 11:49:55 am
I thought it would only be in hospitals but for what Im seeing they are serious about anal probing random bystandersMakes sense, if those tests are indeed capable of letting less infections slip through unnoticed, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole world switches to anal testing as the standard.
Post by: Bumber on January 30, 2021, 02:26:18 am
Post by: King Zultan on January 30, 2021, 02:57:04 am
Post by: MonkeyHead on January 30, 2021, 11:47:50 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 30, 2021, 11:52:02 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 30, 2021, 12:33:26 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 30, 2021, 12:41:32 pm
She's getting her second dose coming week, let's hope she doesn't have your experience.
How was your first shot?
Post by: LordBaal on January 30, 2021, 12:51:19 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 30, 2021, 01:27:53 pm
That is what they want you to believe, your friend in fact has been replaced by a clone that operates with 5G virus waves that do the biding of the underground lizard pedophiles that use amazon shipping to import tracking devices made of ikea furniture to..... fuck. Being crazy is hard.Damn, that's come crazy conspiracy theory there man. Every sane person knows the lizard people are surface dwellers, they don't live underground.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 30, 2021, 01:41:47 pm
A friend of mine who is a neurologist at a hospital in my area, had her 1st shot a few weeks ago. She had no side effects except the pretty standard minor bruising around the injection spot.First shot no symptoms whatsoever. Not even local pain unless I poked.
She's getting her second dose coming week, let's hope she doesn't have your experience.
How was your first shot?
Got the second shot on thursday, started spiking that night, and on Friday I spent most of the day unable to walk very far away from bed. I started to be truly well today at noon.
Post by: LordBaal on January 30, 2021, 03:37:57 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 30, 2021, 03:45:13 pm
For tomorrow however, there's another 2 banned demonstrations in my town. Pegida, against moslims, and a general anti-lockdown demo, just like last week when it escalated into riots. We'll see how it goes this week.
Post by: Iduno on January 30, 2021, 06:46:44 pm
For tomorrow however, there's another 2 banned demonstrations in my town. Pegida, against moslims, and a general anti-lockdown demo, just like last week when it escalated into riots. We'll see how it goes this week.
Sorry to hear that. Good luck.
Post by: martinuzz on January 31, 2021, 06:58:31 am
Yesterday, the police raided an illegal party in a warehouse in Apeldoorn. 40 people were fined. The partygoers didn't go down peacefully, they turned on the police.
Amsterday yet again declared the Museumplein area to be high-risk area, and in my city we'll have to wait and see if enough of the rioters are still in prison to discourage others to come riot (many still are in a police cell since last week, the youngest being 14 years).
EDIT: meanwhile in Brussels, 100s of people have been arrested for illegally protesting against corona measures. Most of the arrestees are football hooligans.
Post by: LordBaal on January 31, 2021, 07:59:15 am
Its too long to translate for me rigth now, use google translate if you like. But long history short the wife got sick and did not said anything, 47 days latter she, her husband and all children are dead. Most likely she was afraid of being confined into a "health camp" here.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on January 31, 2021, 08:17:04 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 31, 2021, 08:27:11 am
So many people of such a young age dying would be a far statistical outlier for the original strain's lethality rates.
The Manaus variant is presumed to be somewhat more dangerous to younger people, but even then it would be an outlier.
It is possible that the afflicted family had a genetic mutation themselves that makes them more vulnerable.
Post by: Starver on January 31, 2021, 08:44:03 am
(Maybe revealed in the untranslated article, but if both parents got hit hard and the girl then had been suffering herself, scared of opening up to anyone, stressed by this and having to also care for the twins, who might have been hard to care for then the compromised health/environment might have made for a perfect storm even in the younger individuals, the full details of which might not be easily/readily/tactfully reported. It makes a better cautionary tale in its simplicity, though, without hurting the victims further and possibly doing some good as a warning example, so I see no problem in (currently) missing out the nuances for the headline story.)
[1] Non-trivially, anyway.
Post by: martinuzz on January 31, 2021, 08:56:45 am
I just expressed concern at the extreme lethality. Let's hope this isn't the new standard for a mutated strain.
Post by: LordBaal on January 31, 2021, 09:10:39 am
Post by: Starver on January 31, 2021, 09:20:02 am
That was not my intention.Sorry, no accusation made. Just an idle personal observation trying to put to bed the other conclusion that might be had.
And if I'm the only person whose mind vaguely leant in that direction, full apologies for even raising the matter!
(Statistically speaking, we could just be looking at a perfect confluence of bad luck. Young children have been known to die, teens have been known to die, adults obviously have. One family in <whatever your arbitrarily sampled size is> families in total, the vast majority of whom are not anywhere near as noteworthy, has found themselves at the sharp end of a probability curve. Because someone has to be the ultimate outlier.)
@LB: Down('s) Syndrome (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Down_syndrome), I presume you're refering to? That could easily be a complicating factor. If not clinically, then situationally. Without wishing to wildly speculate (too late for that!) various experiences in bringing up their girl could have pushed the mother/parents away from help-seeking, or persuaded them that they didn't need to. And maybe, without bad luck, they'd even have been happily right.
Post by: LordBaal on January 31, 2021, 10:00:21 am
Like you said maybe not biological but situational issues arised from that.
I can't even picture the fridge horror those parents had dying thinking about their children being left alone.... fuck. Horror stuff for my nigthmares, like if they needed more.
Post by: martinuzz on January 31, 2021, 10:06:05 am
Portugal only has 7 ICU beds (out of 850) left for new corona patients.
A team of 27 medics will be deployed for at least 3 weeks. The German army also sends field hospital beds and respirators.
Post by: LordBaal on January 31, 2021, 10:39:26 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 31, 2021, 10:56:28 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 31, 2021, 10:59:09 am
Post by: Caz on January 31, 2021, 11:03:00 am
I can't even picture the fridge horror those parents had dying thinking about their children being left alone.... fuck. Horror stuff for my nigthmares, like if they needed more.
There was a story here about a baby being left alone in the house after its mother died from coronavirus. Scary shit.
Post by: Vector on January 31, 2021, 12:07:01 pm
I can't even picture the fridge horror those parents had dying thinking about their children being left alone.... fuck. Horror stuff for my nigthmares, like if they needed more.
There was a story here about a baby being left alone in the house after its mother died from coronavirus. Scary shit.
Yeah, we're starting to look like 1918 style pandemic :-\
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 31, 2021, 12:27:43 pm
Post by: Vector on January 31, 2021, 12:38:00 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 31, 2021, 12:59:10 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 31, 2021, 02:15:06 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 31, 2021, 04:23:14 pm
Post by: wierd on February 01, 2021, 12:44:52 am
this results in things like the mass histrionics and riots in Martinuzz' neck of the woods, the "Mask protests" and "lockdown anger" in the US, the "Relief and aid denialism" from world governments, refusing to wake up to the reality, and hoping it will just dry up and blow away (which it wont.) and a WHOLE FUCKING LOT OF DEATH.
I consider this a microcosm of how the world will respond to the up-coming "super crisis" of climate change; Even more, more stringent, and stalwart denial, with even more death--- but because we have air conditioning, it's fine. "nothing to worry about."
It's also why I feel we will just ignore the breeder-reactor we have in the US with how we concentrate cattle populations on feedlots, just so they can be fat marbled. (and the ABSURDLY HUGE disease risk this poses.)
There is a common thread:
If a necessary mitigation requires even a tiny bit of adversity or undesirable change in a population's indolent habits, that necessary mitigation will *NEVER* happen any other way than by gunpoint. (and even then, it will have mass riots, protests, and large collateral consequences)
This kind of repeat pattern only reinforces my nascent misanthropy.
Post by: Frumple on February 01, 2021, 01:18:43 am
It's just the homicidally suicidal nergal worshippers are pretty goddamn noticeable (and have way too fucking much media influence spreading mis- and dis-information), unfortunately, and a lot of folks don't really have the means for strict observation. It's not a wash, but as the mounds of corpses attests to, it could, y'know, be better :-\
Post by: wierd on February 01, 2021, 03:00:47 am
At least here for the US, you have several demographics, and their associated worldviews, all converging on a single set of outcomes, that is HIGHLY deleterious.
1), the GOP in general has a toxic "market religion", with a primary tenet that anything and everything that discourages them and their rich donors getting even more money out of the market, is "OMG, UNTHINKABLE HERESY!"
As such, *ANY* kind of government spending that is NOT "directly given to either them (through an intermediary) or to one of their crony friends", is simply **UNTHINKABLE!!!**. Likewise, increasing taxes on any of the above is *DOUBLY UNTHINKABLE!!* Since this fucking WORLD-WIDE, INTERNATIONAL-EMERGENCY is costing the whole goddamn planet, not only unspeakable losses in human life and suffering, but also protracted economic fallout that will persist for likely a whole damn generation, the notion of "We really need to mitigate this NOW, and not drag our feet, and drop some mitigation NOW, to limit the consequences of the endgame" makes the most total sense, but **NOT** to a GOP die-hard. See, to THEM, people ending up dead is "Just nature", and they cling like frenzied madmen to their religious dogmas: TAXCUTS FOR THE WEALTHY, PORK FOR THEIR CONSTITUENTS, and LITTLE PEOPLE DON'T MATTER.
This is why in the US, those idiots are trumpeting a 2/3 cut in relief, (THAT IS INTENDED TO KEEP THE ECONOMY FUCKING ALIVE, SO THE END HIT IS LESS!!) as a valid "Compromise." (with the majority of the spending they decided to keep, going to themselves through intermediates, or to their direct cronies, and FUCK THE SMALL PEOPLE, they should just die.)
2) The indolent masses are squeezed by the above kinds of situation, (at least in the US)-- leaving them no breathing room to deviate from it (which our GOP friends consider "ideal"), and even if they could, their habituation makes them unwilling to, by and large. A reasonable portion of the public does have the combination of capability, and where-with-all to be proactive and make the necessary adjustments, and do what is needed in this crunch, but the real reality is that *BEFORE* the pandemic, more than 50% of our population was already so hamstrung that they could not survive the loss of a single paycheck without going into poverty. (Again, see item 1.) They lack the elasticity to handle not being a "plague bearer". The added stresses of doing right, and complying with the lockdown, puts them past their psychological breaking point, which is why they freak the fuck out, and then riot-- why they shirk the pandemic requirements to go get drunk-- (They simply cannot cope while sober, they are chemically dependent on the clubbing, and thrill seeking, even under NORMAL conditions!)
3) Then, on top of those, you have the actual "nergal worshipers", who worship the GOP types like they were gods-- and suckle up to them. (Like Qanon, and co.. See also, Trump's lunatic following) who have the same toxic "religion" about the market and where money should be going, despite the fact that it is fucking killing them in droves. (and the statistic that this is close to 50% of the goddamn population)
When you combine the statistics, with the financially imperiled 50% being equally divided among political affiliates, along with the near 50% split on political affiliations and their ideologies, you end up with greater than 50% that either WILL NOT, or CANNOT comply with the necessary mitigations.
The same will be true later, for climate change, and the same will be true for any other disaster that could happen along.
This recurring trend to never actually, you know, REALIZE THIS, and FUCKING DO SOMETHING TO FIX IT, rather than just turning to blatant name-calling and exclusionary politics, will only fucking doom the planet.
Misanthropy Intensifies.
Post by: King Zultan on February 01, 2021, 05:02:42 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 05:15:23 am
With all the governments being stupid should we start handing out copies of that Civil Defense pamphlet that tells you how to dispose of a dead body?
Only if your government is too stupid to dispose of the bodies themselves
Post by: King Zultan on February 01, 2021, 05:23:06 am
But what if there are more bodies than trucks to take them away?With all the governments being stupid should we start handing out copies of that Civil Defense pamphlet that tells you how to dispose of a dead body?
Only if your government is too stupid to dispose of the bodies themselves
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 05:28:20 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 05:48:02 am
This is too soon. More than half our ICUs are still filled. Only a few hundred thousand people have been vaccinated. Infection rates are going down, but not enough to reopen stores if you ask me. Schools, I dunno. For virus spread it might be unwise, but for the children, we kinda have to. They've missed out on nearly a full year of education now and are suffering abuse.
But this is not a medically motivated decision. This is fear of the public opinion in the light of upcoming elections.
Well, I guess we'll get a third wave somewhere near summer.
EDIT: I have the solution! We should go out to the streets and riot and plunder, to demand the lockdown is extended! If the police interferes we tell them to leave us alone, because we are healthcare workers and our covid patients need us!
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 06:06:23 am
Post by: Jimmy on February 01, 2021, 06:54:25 am
I consider this a microcosm of how the world will respond to the up-coming "super crisis" of climate change; Even more, more stringent, and stalwart denial, with even more death--- but because we have air conditioning, it's fine. "nothing to worry about."As a man of science, I'm sure you appreciate the implications in this graph.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 06:57:11 am
Post by: feelotraveller on February 01, 2021, 10:56:06 am
I consider this a microcosm of how the world will respond to the up-coming "super crisis" of climate change; Even more, more stringent, and stalwart denial, with even more death--- but because we have air conditioning, it's fine. "nothing to worry about."As a man of science, I'm sure you appreciate the implications in this graph.Enjoy it while it lasts.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Cue the second phase of the Green Revolution, the Soylent Green Revolution. For 'science'! ("Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.")
But also for 'education'! -aka the production line of greedy institutionalised fucks - ("Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.")
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 01, 2021, 12:21:30 pm
Kind of insensitive given that dead bodies over the capability of funerary services to cope has already happened many times in the last 12 months. Just saying.With all the governments being stupid should we start handing out copies of that Civil Defense pamphlet that tells you how to dispose of a dead body?
Only if your government is too stupid to dispose of the bodies themselves
Post by: wierd on February 01, 2021, 12:24:48 pm
I consider this a microcosm of how the world will respond to the up-coming "super crisis" of climate change; Even more, more stringent, and stalwart denial, with even more death--- but because we have air conditioning, it's fine. "nothing to worry about."As a man of science, I'm sure you appreciate the implications in this graph.Enjoy it while it lasts.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I see your scary chart, and raise you a scary paper-- (see factor #4 in their risk breakdown)
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01426.x
Spoiler: And another scary chart (click to show/hide)
Do note that #4 is not the only thing about that paper that is scary; It's very nature, when applied to human population growth and resource scarcities and mass human-caused extinctions of other species, should be highly evident.
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 12:34:04 pm
Post by: wierd on February 01, 2021, 12:35:40 pm
In this case, they are talking about "hyper mobility", which humans have, through technological means. It enables a population center that would otherwise survive, because they are within tolerances for their local niche, to become unviable, because umpteen bazillion people all try to move there at once, and destroy its viability.
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 12:37:06 pm
EDIT: in more corona related news, the british variant is now responsible for half of all infections in the Netherlands. I don't think they're overestimating it if they say it is about 50% more infectious than the original strain.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 01, 2021, 03:33:42 pm
Ah right, that makes senseI'm sorry our islands have exported this to you
EDIT: in more corona related news, the british variant is now responsible for half of all infections in the Netherlands. I don't think they're overestimating it if they say it is about 50% more infectious than the original strain.
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 03:35:52 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on February 01, 2021, 04:50:11 pm
In
Post by: Starver on February 01, 2021, 05:58:31 pm
[1] Surely 'Britain Virus' would be better[2], to match the grammar of 'China Virus' rather than 'Chinese ...'. (And I never quite worked out if the ex-Pres called our guy 'Britain Trump' (which grates) or 'Briton Trump' (which grates less, but I think is beyond his vocab).
[2] I mean, technically 'England Virus', and often called named more specifically after Kent, over here, but I'm being magnanimous about it.
Post by: LordBaal on February 01, 2021, 06:22:16 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 06:24:36 pm
It's kinda hard to tread lightly when the ground is covered in eggshells
Post by: LordBaal on February 01, 2021, 06:26:19 pm
Post by: scriver on February 01, 2021, 06:37:25 pm
I mean I was always in favour of the Corvid Flu but the difference in narrative is noticeable
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 06:43:27 pm
Post by: Frumple on February 01, 2021, 06:45:02 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 06:46:49 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 01, 2021, 06:52:36 pm
People are just oversensitive these days. The spanish flu has been called the spanish flu now for 102 years, and as far as I can tell there never has been anyone in Spain who took offense.Oh boy.... I´ve seldom seen it pop up *without* people getting angry.
Post by: Starver on February 01, 2021, 06:55:36 pm
Without any kind of racial or negative indications, just facts and geographical pinpointment, Wuhan Influenza is not a bad name. Certainly better than "Chinese virus". Then you have Britain Strain and so on...British Strain, of the Chinese Virus. Or the Trumpian "Britain Strain of the China Virus". That's what I was getting at with most of the words I wrote.
Though we also don't have enough facts for geographic pinpointing, is how I started it.
There's doubt about Wuhan being the original epicentre, but once you get through the usual Chinese information-massaging you could see if precursor deathrates and general hospitalisations spiked elsewhere first. Even with the uptick in infectivities from the Kent-type, without going that extra mile to sample and fully analyse slightly historic samples from an almost worldwide subset of possibilities it's quite possible that the true source was somewhere else, perhaps a returning holidaymaker/bussinessperson who encountered it in a supposedly 'safe'/precautionary-enough foreign location, but we'll be hard-pressed to discover where. Call it a Kentish Virus if you wish (or a Virus Of Kent (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Kent#Kentish_Man), depending on if it's from the east or west) but I'd guess it probably started elsewhere (and probably spread to everywhere else it has spread to by any number of non-Kent routings).
Post by: LordBaal on February 01, 2021, 07:34:28 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on February 01, 2021, 10:01:33 pm
It has/had different names, the Bolshevik Disease, the German Flu, the Brazilian Flu.
Apparently in Spain it used to be called Naples Soldier, after a musical number that was described as being as catchy as the flu.
I would not be surprised if the 1918 flu caused a rise in antisocial behaviour directed at Spanish expats and Spanish descended people in other countries hit by the pandemic, but there was already a war going on and all the cultural fallout from that, so people might have been too busy with other petty hatreds.
Post by: Starver on February 01, 2021, 10:34:23 pm
Post by: scriver on February 02, 2021, 08:04:56 am
I mean, it was largely popularized "china virus" by a virulent sinophobe actively engaged in waging a trade war against the country, at a point where there was already perfectly effective and pervasively used terms for it (covid or coronavirus). It was pretty explicitly a racist thing being pushed by racist people. Don't quite remember if the wuhan variation was the same but, y'know, probably.
It was never called the "China virus". It was called the Wuhan virus. The USA is not the only place in the world, and Trump do not influence everything everywhere.
Well, you can't really blame China for getting upset over it... They weren't upset about the name itself, they were upset that worldwide there were incidents of rightwing fucktards beating up people with Asian looks, blaming them for the virus. But those would have probably done that just the same if it had been called 'random name generator result 3', because to them it just mattered that it originated from asianland
I don't think China gives a fuck about those people. It's all a matter of perception to them. They lobbied to make the Wuhan virus taboo because god forbid something reflects badly on the most imperious country on earth, not because they care about people.
And that's why you don't anyone making a big deal out of the names of the three new strains being place names.
Post by: Starver on February 02, 2021, 09:01:35 am
And that's why you don't [see?] anyone making a big deal out of the names of the three new strains being place names....well, I do, it appears. But overwhelmingly for grammatical reasons than for vague/misleading toponymity. Opinions as to which is the greater crime are likely quite varied, and polarised. :P
Post by: Starver on February 02, 2021, 11:52:39 am
(Last year, for those who don't know/forgot, he was inspirational in that he decided to do 100 zimmer-frame/walker-assisted 'lockdown laps' of the garden to raise money for charity, in the run-up to turning 100 himself. He aimed at a few thousand pounds but it ended up at tens of millions raised, and inspired others. He was knighted (in an almost unique individual outdoor ceremony with the Queen), granted military honours atop his original veteran status and generally lauded.)
He'd developed pneumonia in the last few weeks, which had prevented him from being vaccinated, and it seems coronavirus somehow reached him while he was ill. No further details given (none looked for).
Last night I saw that his family were with him at his hospital bed, which didn't bode well as an exception to current no-visitor rules. And so here we are, for those who would wish to know and haven't picked it up already.
Post by: Caz on February 02, 2021, 12:32:15 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on February 02, 2021, 02:20:58 pm
Opinions as to which is the greater crime are likely quite varied, and polarised. :P
You sir, are courting the great northern polarization. ;)
Down here we just call them sunnies. 8)
Post by: Bumber on February 02, 2021, 04:40:14 pm
Spanish flu didn't started on Spain either. It's just naming convention I guess? Wuhan for better or worse was were all started, at least publicly and awareness was raised.
Interestingly, it looks like the Spanish flu may have originated in... China:
https://www.history.com/news/china-epicenter-of-1918-flu-pandemic-historian-says
Post by: TD1 on February 02, 2021, 05:07:05 pm
What's next, I tell you?
WHAT'S NEXT?
Post by: martinuzz on February 02, 2021, 05:13:25 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 02, 2021, 06:58:29 pm
Bubonic plague, Spanish influenza, Wuhan virus, Sars,British supergonorrhea (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-set-gonorrhoea-pandemic-covid-23330439)
What's next, I tell you?
WHAT'S NEXT?
Post by: TD1 on February 02, 2021, 07:07:49 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 03, 2021, 05:31:42 am
Post by: Caz on February 03, 2021, 05:36:21 am
Meh at our current rate of 250000 vaccinations per week, it is going to take 70 weeks until everyone has been vaccinated.
Doesn't the protection only last a year? It's like painting the Forth Bridge :P
Post by: LordBaal on February 03, 2021, 05:46:36 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 03, 2021, 05:47:16 am
That's pretty significant on a population of 18 million. We now ordered 8 million doses extra of the Moderna vaccin, but those will only arrive in Q3 of 2021. Before our government hadn't ordered more from Moderna, because they said it wouldn't be available until Q4 of 2021. Apparently Q3 was acceptable. Still way too late.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 03, 2021, 02:20:07 pm
Sorry, it's important to the continuity of US government that it be called the English Virus now.WuFlu -> Sneeze Paolo -> Anglovid-19 -> Cape to Coof
British supergonorrhea (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-set-gonorrhoea-pandemic-covid-23330439)It'll die out now that Ibiza's closed to travel
People are just oversensitive these days. The spanish flu has been called the spanish flu now for 102 years, and as far as I can tell there never has been anyone in Spain who took offense.On the one hand, it's silly. On the other hand, people are easily induced to group violence. On the other hand, not calling it the wuflu or some variant thereof also did not stop anti-Chinese violence across the world from occurring. Pretty fucking appalling hearing how so many people even in London I know were getting abused just for being Chinese, but fortunately people in the public still stood up for them
It's kinda hard to tread lightly when the ground is covered in eggshells
Bubonic plague, Spanish influenza, Wuhan virus, Sars,Antibiotic resistant plague?
What's next, I tell you?
WHAT'S NEXT?
Post by: Rolan7 on February 03, 2021, 02:29:54 pm
Considering how much our own mismanagement has probably contributed to the duration of this, I would also accepted Yankee Fever.Sorry, it's important to the continuity of US government that it be called the English Virus now.WuFlu -> Sneeze Paolo -> Anglovid-19 -> Cape to Coof
Post by: TD1 on February 03, 2021, 03:06:11 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 03, 2021, 03:06:49 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 03, 2021, 03:19:11 pm
What's next, I tell you?Airborne AIDS
WHAT'S NEXT?
Post by: Starver on February 03, 2021, 03:21:20 pm
Yankee flu-dle.Don't forget the Coughfederates...
Post by: Vector on February 03, 2021, 03:23:34 pm
M-Metal Gear!!
fox meaning the news network
Post by: martinuzz on February 03, 2021, 07:08:43 pm
They feel that they cannot in any way safely teach the children, and refuse to endanger the lives of them and their teachers.
Post by: Cthulhu on February 04, 2021, 12:06:01 am
Still possible it's some kind of immune system issue, but if we're being really really really real, this is another case of Chronic Idiopathic I Don't Feel Good Syndrome.
1. Find an online support group for CIIDFGS (it goes by many other names)
2. Ask them to list everything shitty they've felt in the last month
3. Write down everything in the list as a symptom of CIIDFGS
4. Publish that shit
Exacerbated by the fact that nobody feels good right now because it's winter and there's a pandemic and we've been stuck in our homes for a year now unable to do anything. Valid to feel fucked up right now. There's definitely long-term consequences to severe COVID, considering it damages the lungs and heart, but "long COVID" as popularly described is pretty dubious.
Post by: Vector on February 04, 2021, 01:12:37 am
I'm not saying that it's a thing; on the other hand, medicine as currently practiced is very into saying things like: "migraines. mostly for women? shrug" and "excruciating menstrual pain -- that's normal, just tough it out."
Post by: Jimmy on February 04, 2021, 03:03:43 am
Otherwise, you might discover a surprisingly high percentage of CIIDFGS patients are named Karen.
Post by: wierd on February 04, 2021, 03:16:52 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 04, 2021, 04:18:13 am
New "research" on "long COVID" (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v2)
Still possible it's some kind of immune system issue, but if we're being really really really real, this is another case of Chronic Idiopathic I Don't Feel Good Syndrome.
1. Find an online support group for CIIDFGS (it goes by many other names)
2. Ask them to list everything shitty they've felt in the last month
3. Write down everything in the list as a symptom of CIIDFGS
4. Publish that shit
Exacerbated by the fact that nobody feels good right now because it's winter and there's a pandemic and we've been stuck in our homes for a year now unable to do anything. Valid to feel fucked up right now. There's definitely long-term consequences to severe COVID, considering it damages the lungs and heart, but "long COVID" as popularly described is pretty dubious.
You are being extremely insensitive to people who have been coping with very serious health issues for many months after ' curing' from Covid.
In other words, you are being an asshole.
EDIT: sorry, I missed the cynicism
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 04, 2021, 04:29:15 am
Well no, actually, he's not denying long covid, he's criticising a particular study due to it's methodology. Which is not unfair: they are basically running online polls for their paper.New "research" on "long COVID" (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v2)
Still possible it's some kind of immune system issue, but if we're being really really really real, this is another case of Chronic Idiopathic I Don't Feel Good Syndrome.
1. Find an online support group for CIIDFGS (it goes by many other names)
2. Ask them to list everything shitty they've felt in the last month
3. Write down everything in the list as a symptom of CIIDFGS
4. Publish that shit
Exacerbated by the fact that nobody feels good right now because it's winter and there's a pandemic and we've been stuck in our homes for a year now unable to do anything. Valid to feel fucked up right now. There's definitely long-term consequences to severe COVID, considering it damages the lungs and heart, but "long COVID" as popularly described is pretty dubious.
You are being extremely insensitive to people who have been coping with very serious health issues for many months after ' curing' from Covid.
In other words, you are being an asshole.
Anddd... really, maybe we should all step back and breathe deeply before start flinging epithets? I know we are all quite emotional about this. There has been too much death, too much pain. None here are without sin, but I have an honorable compromise. Just walk away. Leave the pump, the oil, the gasoline, and the whole compound, and I spare your lives. Just walk away. I will give you safe passage in the wasteland. Just walk away and there will be an end to the horror. I await your answer. You have one full day to decide
Post by: martinuzz on February 04, 2021, 04:35:10 am
EDIT: And yeah, this whole lockdown thing is getting to me. Where at first, I just missed going out to have a beer and a chat in the pub, I no longer miss it, I am now mostly just trying to remember how it was like to go out and see people.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 04, 2021, 07:50:25 am
Post by: McTraveller on February 04, 2021, 08:10:11 am
A number of primary schools in the south-west of our country have said that they refuse to re-open next week, as our government has decided.
They feel that they cannot in any way safely teach the children, and refuse to endanger the lives of them and their teachers.
I count this is another aspect of the long-term effects of COVID. It's not necessarily a "health" effect, but the total impact on society of having unequivocally disrupted education for more than an entire school year is very likely underestimated and unappreciated.
This disruption to education concerns me more than the immediate loss of life and health to be honest. I'd also rank it more concerning that the economic impacts.
Post by: martinuzz on February 04, 2021, 08:17:29 am
But hey... They did miss that during WW2 too, and proceeded to become the most succesful generation ever.
Personally I find getting corona under control, as it is right now, more important than the missed classes and employers that whine about their workers not being able to work at full productivity because they are covered in children (I mean the latter is the real reason that our government decided to re-open the schools, while being advised against it by the medical advisors).
Our schools and daycare centers never fully closed to be fair. They did *close*, but with exceptions for children of parents that work in essential places, like healthcare workers, garbage collectors, cleaners, power plant workers, train ticket controllers, opticians, supermarkets, etc. etc., plus an exception for children that are deemed 'extra vulnerable' by their schools.
For some schools this means they are completely closed, no children in the class. For some schools that means 90% of their pupils still come to school. The rest hovers somewhere in between.
EDIT: in other news, serological research in India shows that about 21.5% of the Indian population has been infected with corona. That's 290 million people. The official number of infected according to the Indian government is 10,8 million.
The research was conducted with a group of 36000 persons above age 10.
Another study shows that children are even more likely to have been infected with corona: of all children up to age 17, more than 25% have anti-bodies in their blood.
Although the number of 290 million sounds extremely high compared to the official government numbers, there are other studies that show even higher percentages.
For example, Thyrocare Technologies says they tested 700000, and found that 55% of the Indian population has already at some point been infected.
Post by: Cthulhu on February 04, 2021, 01:00:39 pm
I would like to see something more rigorous exploring what kinds of long-term effects it has.
Post by: Bumber on February 04, 2021, 05:39:16 pm
It's.... not optimal to have the children miss out on a year of school.
But hey... They did miss that during WW2 too, and proceeded to become the most succesful generation ever.
They also had in-person social interaction, though. That's very important at a young age.
Post by: martinuzz on February 05, 2021, 07:11:37 am
A studies into blood donors show that in Belgium, 20% of the population has corona anti-bodies, so 21.5% isn't some far fetched extreme high number.
It could mean however that global estimates are on the low side. Over here, the government guesses that about 10% of the population has had corona at some point.
If 20% is the global norm, we will need to cut mortality / hospitalization rates in half (and adjust infection rates upwards)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 05, 2021, 07:49:05 am
Post by: Starver on February 05, 2021, 08:22:55 am
So, they haven't serotested me. No tests done on me at all. I'm possibly (conceivably) an undetected past-carrier but I may well be (for more likely) an unconfirmed non-carrierm. And I don't know if they statistically account for those such as I.
Post by: martinuzz on February 06, 2021, 06:11:43 am
Geesh. That's like opening a church, but not serving religion.
Or opening a school, but not offering education.
Post by: TD1 on February 06, 2021, 06:24:14 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 06, 2021, 06:32:26 am
Nice old song
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 06, 2021, 06:46:29 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 06, 2021, 07:00:38 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 06, 2021, 07:07:57 am
Boris will recruit the Taliban sharia police
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Rolan7 on February 06, 2021, 11:56:35 am
The UK government has announced that they will reopen the pubs after Easter... But they won't serve alcohol.I... guess I can see that? Local music, tasty unhealth food, and social contact but without the impaired judgement from alcohol? It still seems a little ridiculous but also really tempting, in the same way I keep fighting an urge to just go to the mall and soak in the presence of other people.
Geesh. That's like opening a church, but not serving religion.
Or opening a school, but not offering education.
which is both a healthy urge but also still a bad idea at this time
I guess tensions are so high that the government has to allow some measure of dangerous congregation.
Post by: Bumber on February 06, 2021, 11:59:20 am
2. Get shitfaced
3. Head to pub
Post by: King Zultan on February 07, 2021, 02:23:18 am
Post by: Rolan7 on February 07, 2021, 02:26:48 am
That's one of my memories of human connection, and alcohol wasn't really involved.
Post by: King Zultan on February 07, 2021, 04:54:37 am
Post by: Egan_BW on February 07, 2021, 05:01:18 am
HAHA GET IT BECAUSE IM A G̟͟A̙̣̣̦̕M͔̮̭͞E̸̤̖̗̙R͇̮̣̮͓
M̱͕̟̼̞I̖S͎AN̻̳͠T̫̫̝̼̙͇HR̮̣̻̘̤͠Ọ̣P̯̱̱Y ̵I̼̻̼̞͔S̫̱͠ ̴̬F͟U̠͚̗̻̱̠̯͜N͏̦̞̝̥͇͔N̥̝̳Y̟ ̩̠͉H̺̫͉͇̰̹̱́A̹Ḩ͈A҉̲̯͇̰̪̜̪
Post by: wierd on February 07, 2021, 06:13:59 am
The truly asocial fill their time with simple pleasures, and simply have no real love for human contact to begin with.
(I speak from experience.)
It need not be gaming. It could be crochet, or knit, or going camping or fishing. Something simple, solitary, time consuming, and enjoyable. Just that in the modern world, gaming seems to fit that bill nicely for a lot of people.
Post by: Iduno on February 07, 2021, 07:59:16 pm
Or opening a school, but not offering education.
Wow, big slam on the US out of nowhere.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2021, 11:48:58 am
The AstraZeneca and Janssen vaccines do not work against the South-African variant. As in, not at all. There was no difference in number of infected between the test groups and control groups.
It is not yet known if the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are also ineffective against it, that is still being researched.
EDIT: As a small consolation though, the Janssen vaccin did signicficantly reduce the disease's severity. Those who were infected needed no hospitalization.
Post by: Starver on February 08, 2021, 11:54:55 am
AZ was apparently less effective against ZA[1] variant but still mitigated any illness that resulted, last I heard.
[1] Totally unpunningly intended, but notably ironic[2] now that it's written in.
[2] Maybe only in an Alanis Morissette way...
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2021, 12:09:46 pm
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/virus-ontsnapt-aan-vaccin-in-zuid-afrika-dit-kon-wel-eens-een-groot-probleem-worden~b6de786e/
Post by: Starver on February 08, 2021, 12:35:01 pm
[1] In the sense other than "translation". But I only read your provided NYT link, so maybe the native Volkskrant diverges further.
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2021, 12:58:47 pm
The article also states that, even though the available vaccins do work against the British variant, there is still cause for concern, because the British variant has also remutated a couple of times at the same spot that makes the South-African variant dodge the vaccin, possibly through recombination with the South-African variant.
There's worries that we will see more and more recombination amongst virus variants as they spread around the world and mingle.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2266429-uk-coronavirus-variant-gets-nastier-as-south-african-variant-spreads/
EDIT: but yeah, interpretation and stress too I guess. In my opinion, the task of a vaccin is to prevent infection. It doesn't do that at all.
It's nice and all that it apparently does decrease disease severity, but that's not going to help much with attaining group immunity. If anything, it could make spread easier. People might have less severe complaints (or not notice at all they are carrying it), they can still be infectious.
Post by: Rolan7 on February 08, 2021, 01:14:54 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2021, 01:29:12 pm
But that's the flu. Pharmacists have a lot of experience with the influenza virus.
The corona virus, while not brand new, is still mostly unexplored territory for vaccin developers.
So yeah, hopefully vaccin developers will be able to update their vaccines for new strains.
We can expect to need regular re-vaccination for everyone. Like, twice a year or yearly.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 08, 2021, 01:51:06 pm
Fuck, it is official now.Well its not. Not official I mean. It was a minuscule study that did not achieve clinical significance. Lets not forget that AZ wasnt terribly effective at preventing symptomatic covid to begin with. 60% prevention is the lower bracket of acceptable vaccine parameters
The AstraZeneca and Janssen vaccines do not work against the South-African variant. As in, not at all. There was no difference in number of infected between the test groups and control groups.
It is not yet known if the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are also ineffective against it, that is still being researched.
EDIT: As a small consolation though, the Janssen vaccin did signicficantly reduce the disease's severity. Those who were infected needed no hospitalization.
Btw: severe covid suppression, if confirmed, would be a good enough reason to give these vaccines to people if lacking stock from the others. Its not a small consolation, its a pretty big deal. If we didnt have several vaccines with >90% efficacy we'd be dancing a jig for a vaccine that minimized hospitalizatiom and death to manageable levels
There is some invitro evidence of the Pfizer vac working against SA variant but like all IV stuff, tske with a pinch of salt
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2021, 03:55:43 pm
I know, we really need to relieve pressure on hospitals.
A vaccin that lowers disease severity but not infection could be a Trojan horse that seeds us with typhoid Maries.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 08, 2021, 03:59:32 pm
Quote
But a vaccin's purpose should not be relieving pressure on hospitals by decreasing disease severity, it should be preventing infection.Well the flu vaccination campaigns work on that principle.
Post by: thompson on February 08, 2021, 06:45:10 pm
Post by: wierd on February 09, 2021, 12:54:11 am
This is because of its high contagion rate, animal reservoir populations, and consistent stupid human behaviors.
The upshot is that the global population will cease being "naive" to the pathogen, and so over time, the infection will become more like flu in how people's bodies respond to it. (at least in theory, we need clinical data over time to verify that.)
Improvements in treatment regimens, antiviral drugs, and things of that nature will also help turn this page in history, but I forsee Covid sticking around long-haul, like Flu.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2021, 03:17:39 am
Fuck it, 2020 was a write-off, my lease is up at the end of June, what's another year of my life amongDont take my word for it. Nobody knows this stuff man. And I was fucking wrong back in February 2020 when I thought Euro goverments had a plan for all this and we'd be spared the ghastly scenes happening elsewhere. For what I've reading I tend to think... well, the way I think. But I'd not be too surprised if suddenly they told us that so-and-so vaccine worked worse than previously thought against some variety or other. I do expect some degree of protection for the foreseeable future. I mean, the vaccines make you non-naive and common sense suggests that has to count for something. But again, who knows.friendsnobody anyways? I can probably manage it on my savings...
I'mmah take Poo's expertise on this one if only to assuage my fears, never mind that it's his job to know this stuff. We've learned an awful lot about coronaviruses in a small amount of time, surely cutting-edge knowledge can keep atop the matter even if social and economic leaders cannot?
I tend to agree with what wierd and thompson said. I think making people non-naive to covid would be an advantage in itself. That being said, the AZ vaccine looks worse and worse.
Ultimately, I see Covid (and its mutant strains), being "A new flu", in terms of needing yearly vacc.
This is because of its high contagion rate, animal reservoir populations, and consistent stupid human behaviors.
The upshot is that the global population will cease being "naive" to the pathogen, and so over time, the infection will become more like flu in how people's bodies respond to it. (at least in theory, we need clinical data over time to verify that.)
Improvements in treatment regimens, antiviral drugs, and things of that nature will also help turn this page in history, but I forsee Covid sticking around long-haul, like Flu.
Ideally, people would just take two vaccines, the less effective one if it’s available sooner, then the more effective one. Provided people understand this is how it works there’s no issue with a vaccine that offers only moderate protection. It’s not as if the alternative is everyone staying at home for as long as required.
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2021, 12:27:23 pm
EDIT: in other news, travellers from the 33 countries that are designated high risk by the UK, will need to quarantaine in a hotel for 10 days upon arrival in the UK. The costs for this, 2000 euros will need to be paid for by the travellers themselves. Included with the fee are transport to the hotel, and a corona test.
People will need to stay inside their hotel rooms at all times. Guards will be deployed to the hotels to prevent escapes. Windows will be sealed.
Non-conformation will be punished by 10 years in prison. The stay in prison will be paid for by the british government though.
The tourism and air travel sectors expect to be hit very hard by this measure.
EDIT2: I wonder.... Does this measure apply to truck drivers delivering and picking up cargo in the UK as well? I hope transport companies have spare trucks and drivers, or Europe-wide logistics will grind to a halt when all lorries are parked on a UK parking terrain for 10 days.
Post by: Zangi on February 09, 2021, 08:41:19 pm
EDIT2: I wonder.... Does this measure apply to truck drivers delivering and picking up cargo in the UK as well? I hope transport companies have spare trucks and drivers, or Europe-wide logistics will grind to a halt when all lorries are parked on a UK parking terrain for 10 days.Realistically, it can be done. Tractor trailers can drop off container(or trailer) at location and some local would in turn use their tractor trailer to take it. Is like a relay race instead of a marathon.
Post by: martinuzz on February 10, 2021, 03:41:46 am
They don't have enough of the special syringes that can get a 6th dose out of the bottle.
Meanwhile, over here, some vaccinations will have to be redone. The Pfizer vaccin has not been transported correctly, and those vaccinated will possibly not be protected. The vaccine needs to be tranported cold, and stable. Shaking it can destroy it.
It turned out that some locations in my country had the vaccin transported by ..... snackbar vans.
Post by: King Zultan on February 10, 2021, 03:48:50 am
snackbar vans.Is that like an ice cream truck?
Post by: martinuzz on February 10, 2021, 03:58:54 am
Post by: wierd on February 10, 2021, 04:13:12 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 10, 2021, 05:08:24 am
EDIT: in other news, antivaxers and covidiots are ecstacic. The German ministry of internal affairs has admitted that it ordered their country's scientist to exaggerate the dangers of corona, at the start of the epidemic last year.
This was discovered and published in die Welt yesterday.
Today, left wing party die Linke will summon the ministers to explain themselves.
Experts fear that this will trigger an avalanche of anti corona protests and convert many people to the psychotic loony camp.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 10, 2021, 05:20:46 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 10, 2021, 05:34:12 am
Post by: scriver on February 10, 2021, 05:36:37 am
No that's German.
Mountain German to be exact. Germans consist of several kin: Mountain Germans, Hill Germans, River Germans, Slav Germans (angrily protesting to this day that they are not German, the silly Germans), and the angriest; Marsh Germans. Also known as Deep Germans as some Marsh Germans have angrily decided they are going to live below the water line and there is nothing anyone can do to stop them once a Marsh German gets it in their head to do something
Quote
EDIT: in other news, antivaxers and covidiots are ecstacic. The German ministry of internal affairs has admitted that it ordered their country's scientist to exaggerate the dangers of corona, at the start of the epidemic last year.
This was discovered and published in die Welt yesterday.
Today, left wing party die Linke will summon the ministers to explain themselves.
Experts fear that this will trigger an avalanche of anti corona protests and convert many people to the psychotic loony camp.
Well. Fuck.
Post by: Caz on February 10, 2021, 05:37:39 am
Post by: LordBaal on February 10, 2021, 05:51:36 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 10, 2021, 05:57:18 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 10, 2021, 06:00:00 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 10, 2021, 06:12:03 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 10, 2021, 07:26:53 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 10, 2021, 11:27:27 am
Post by: Iduno on February 10, 2021, 01:01:49 pm
No that's German.
EDIT: in other news, antivaxers and covidiots are ecstacic. The German ministry of internal affairs has admitted that it ordered their country's scientist to exaggerate the dangers of corona, at the start of the epidemic last year.
This was discovered and published in die Welt yesterday.
Today, left wing party die Linke will summon the ministers to explain themselves.
Experts fear that this will trigger an avalanche of anti corona protests and convert many people to the psychotic loony camp.
Nothing new under the sun, I'm afraid. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bugchasing)
Post by: martinuzz on February 10, 2021, 01:06:16 pm
Post by: Starver on February 15, 2021, 08:27:00 pm
(Q: Is that Yavin IV, then, or Alderaan? Looks somewhat more like Ald. from space but surely Yav. on the ground. Or Yavin for the jab but this has prepared Alderaan for later? Or Q Random Planet, as if the handover of data happened without Vader's active pursuit then his own first (non-naïve) target, later, might then have had no particular reason to be either.)
Post by: Iduno on February 15, 2021, 10:24:51 pm
How on earth does political manipulation of corona scientists by the German government relate to people willingly banging AIDS patients without a condom?
I may have quoted the wrong thing. One of them was about people trying to get sick and spread the disease (Corona).
Post by: hector13 on February 15, 2021, 10:31:13 pm
I am reasonably sure the line Vader starts is from second Death Star, uttered by the Emperor after he’s lured the Rebels there with the intelligence so many Bothan’s died for.
It was Tarkin who ordered the shot on Alderaan also. I am disappointed in xkcd.
Post by: Frumple on February 15, 2021, 10:42:55 pm
Ruddy thing's probably actually an empire at war mod or somethin' :P
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 15, 2021, 10:56:25 pm
It’s Alderaan, Starver, come ahn.
I am reasonably sure the line Vader starts is from second Death Star, uttered by the Emperor after he’s lured the Rebels there with the intelligence so many Bothan’s died for.
It was Tarkin who ordered the shot on Alderaan also. I am disappointed in xkcd.
It's not like Chewy lives on Endor or something.
Post by: Duuvian on February 16, 2021, 01:31:13 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 16, 2021, 05:44:31 am
The judge ruled in their favour. Starting immediatly, the night curfew is now over. Judge declared it illegal.
Post by: Duuvian on February 16, 2021, 08:12:31 am
Permanent lifting or work out better details lifting of curfew?
Post by: martinuzz on February 16, 2021, 08:44:19 am
In other words, the government will need to go back to parliament with a new law and see if they get that approved, if they want a curfew.
Post by: martinuzz on February 16, 2021, 08:49:32 am
I haven't heard of that one yet, and didn't post anything like that.How on earth does political manipulation of corona scientists by the German government relate to people willingly banging AIDS patients without a condom?
I may have quoted the wrong thing. One of them was about people trying to get sick and spread the disease (Corona).
Post by: martinuzz on February 17, 2021, 06:22:39 am
There will be a mximum of 90 volunteers between ages 18 and 30 years participating in the trials.
Damn, those are either very brave souls, or the researchers got their 'volunteers' from easily gullibe mentally retarded people.
I sure hope none of them dies or becomes crippled for life.
Don't think that would be possible over here. Don't think it's legally allowed to infect healthy people with a potentially lethal disease even if they volunteer. I think volunteering for such a thing will get you a few years of mandatory psychiatric evaluation.
And on the other side of the spectrum, I don't see a medic cooperating with such a trial without losing his or her medical license before the medical disciplinary board.
Post by: wierd on February 17, 2021, 06:27:23 am
How?
Post by: martinuzz on February 17, 2021, 06:28:27 am
What happened to primum non nocere? Okay, the scientist might not be under hipporatic oath, but any doctors that assist them are.
Post by: Starver on February 17, 2021, 09:54:59 am
In fact, the need to do so probably fell once you had much more in-the-wild for 'passively challenged' trials to work against - but then you have people running around maybe-vaccinated/maybe-not in the 'challenge of Real Life' and risking the desired exposure without medics continually monitoring them and immediately treating anybody (of either fortune) who gets infected enough to be of concern.
It's a big ask. It has ethics questions, yes. But it may be considered "the worst system apart from all the others" in many ways. Presuming it involves true well-informed volunteers, of course.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 17, 2021, 11:17:51 am
Someone will be in contact shortly to sneeze on your face
Post by: martinuzz on February 17, 2021, 11:31:14 am
Post by: wierd on February 17, 2021, 12:09:29 pm
Good! I volunteer Starver, wierd, martinuzz and Duuvian for the study.
Someone will be in contact shortly to sneeze on your face
I am disqualified, unless you are looking for a single datapoint for moderna vaccine efficacy.
Post by: Frumple on February 17, 2021, 12:15:29 pm
Post by: Starver on February 17, 2021, 12:43:24 pm
(Also, I was nowhere near the Oxford/wherever trial catchments, so my application would never have been seriously taken up.)
With a clearly low case-mortality (even for my age) but high R0, you end up with a higher population mortality than a high CM/low R disease. I'd have prefered (would still prefer) guaranteed monitoring with guaranteed immediate exposure over what is almost guaranteed future exposure if we are still wishy-washy with facts and treatments for too long.
I have never had a test (nor my support-bubbler, and neither having sufficient cause to book one) and for all I know we've both been silent-but-deadly after one random public exposure in a supermarket trip/whatever and thenceforth put others at risk in future supermarket queues. I'd have much better peace of mind if I'd been in a Phase III situation (or pre-screened and rejected), and only have to worry about silent reinfection chances than whether or not I'm still truly unexposed. (I suspect it's also this sort of thing, but far more misguidedly applied, that drives the Covid Party types - with either known or unknown potential 'givers' present - but I'm unsocial enough to not have any need to let my hair (and guard) down in that sort of ad hoc manner.)
Post by: Iduno on February 17, 2021, 12:51:41 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 17, 2021, 01:14:54 pm
Post by: Starver on February 17, 2021, 01:18:26 pm
I'm guessing he said children have nothing to worry about, though? Without qualifying, because it's complicated, so not. But context could he otherwise.
Talking of children, a few days old now but vaccine trials for children (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56052673), vs. a meningitis jab as control.
@Chairman: Not sure that's countering me. Should I have not considered being in a trial at the beginning, you mean?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 17, 2021, 02:37:08 pm
Also: A trial? Sure. A challenge trial? Eh..
Not that there were any challenge trials, anyway. Idk if the British are going ahead with this after all, but if so it will be a first for covid, I think
Post by: LordBaal on February 17, 2021, 02:50:06 pm
Also either mind challenged, decieved or brave souls indeed. Or in dire need if money is being offered.
Post by: Iduno on February 17, 2021, 03:05:18 pm
I can't tell what exactly is being said there (without playing the video), given the variously opposing mix of replies not being so clearly supporting or challenging the OP at times (might be bickering amongst themselves).
I'm guessing he said children have nothing to worry about, though? Without qualifying, because it's complicated, so not. But context could he otherwise.
Pretty much that kids can't usually get sick from Corona, despite that being disproven many times, and the potential of lifelong organ damage. The usual anti-science "get back to work/school for the economy" talking points that are brought up when the rich don't like having to take care of employees/children.
Post by: Starver on February 17, 2021, 03:15:05 pm
Now we know it's not quite liks that, in speed, but that's with three phases of lockdown (and at least two intense accelerators when unlocked-up again, plus variants that may not be helping) and now at a high enough general prevalence that it isn't burning out either. Like I said, we're now seeing a 'useful' level of community exposure for passive challenges to vaccines, but it's still a patchy test and you're sending out placeboed testers into that same environment.
As you say, we now have a far better idea of how to deal with badly adverse symptoms, so you then seem to agree that a more informative challenge trial is less risky than it was four, six or so months ago (or last April even, when more intense trials could have brung the November authorisations into being a month or two earlier). So you're supporting increased (even if not yet break-even) validity of running such trials.
(Oh yeah, when I talk of volunteers, I mean volunteers. And not in return for the commuting of Life Sentences or anything. I don't know about money (beyond normal Phase II/III practices and what happened with TGN1412) and we don't do things like pay hobos/prisoners for blood donations, etc, so desperation-volunteers are likely weeded out. As-long-as-required support is a given assumption, plus however bad our normal healthcare system is (or has become, under Covid) at least it's not like the US one so famously is .)
Post by: Vector on February 17, 2021, 03:30:50 pm
(Oh yeah, when I talk of volunteers, I mean volunteers. And not in return for the commuting of Life Sentences or anything. I don't know about money (beyond normal Phase II/III practices and what happened with TGN1412) and we don't do things like pay hobos/prisoners for blood donations, etc, so desperation-volunteers are likely weeded out. As-long-as-required support is a given assumption, plus however bad our normal healthcare system is (or has become, under Covid) at least it's not like the US one so famously is .)
I really appreciate this clarification, given that when we say "volunteers for medical trials" in the US we often mean prisoners.
Post by: Starver on February 17, 2021, 03:53:28 pm
But I was entirely refering to the infamously unregulated blood drives for cash (or prison privileges?) compared to the "a choice of biscuits and a drink" UK blood donations system. With apologies if they're actually a thing of the past and tramps no longer leach themselves to death for ever more potent choice of alcohol.
Post by: Jimmy on February 17, 2021, 06:07:14 pm
An absolutely brutal teardown of the study data for Vitamin D in COVID-19.
Gotta love them folks that actually do the effing math instead of just reading the title, skimming the abstract, and checking if it matches their own personal biases.
Post by: Duuvian on February 17, 2021, 11:42:30 pm
I should note I am not a parent.
EDIT: Fixed an incorrect prefix that reversed meaning
Post by: Starver on February 18, 2021, 12:02:06 am
(I know the jury is still out, regarding the vaccination preventing retransmission, but it ought at least to throttle its effects.)
Post by: wierd on February 18, 2021, 12:04:16 am
The modern world is **DEPENDENT** upon the education system for child care services. FULL. STOP.
"Learn from home" removes this service, while trying (and failing, because of dependence on the child care services) to provide educational service, which is their real mandate.
However, education is NOT what the public at large really WANTS from the school system; In fact, if you look at voter histories you will see that they have not really wanted to educate kids for years now. The public at large wants to just ignore that they have kids at all for 8 hours each day.
Post by: Rolan7 on February 18, 2021, 10:29:49 am
I guess an alternative would be institutional childcare - oh shit, right, that's the school system :P You're absolutely right.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 18, 2021, 04:53:12 pm
A lot of this isn't by choice, of course. Couples are being heavily encouraged to both have jobs in order to stay solvent. Ideally households will earn a living wage that lets one of them stay at home, but fingers crossed on that becoming standard again (not to mention single-parent households).This can essentially only happen if labor force participation collapses (by at least half), increasing the value of human labor.
Post by: Jimmy on February 18, 2021, 05:11:10 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 18, 2021, 06:29:35 pm
The pope has said that everyone has a moral obligation to get vaccinated, because not doing so can harm others.
He also said that the church has no moral objections against the tissue of aborted fetusses having been used in the development of the vaccines.
Post by: Vector on February 18, 2021, 06:35:17 pm
Post by: Zangi on February 19, 2021, 11:41:58 am
Eh, more old people are also being condemned to life in old people homes these days too.
Post by: KittyTac on February 20, 2021, 12:29:47 am
Post by: feelotraveller on February 20, 2021, 07:39:04 am
https://bdnews24.com/world/south-asia/2021/02/18/indonesia-capital-warns-of-big-fines-for-refusing-covid-19-vaccine (https://bdnews24.com/world/south-asia/2021/02/18/indonesia-capital-warns-of-big-fines-for-refusing-covid-19-vaccine)
Post by: Iduno on February 20, 2021, 10:29:37 am
Eh, more old people are also being condemned to life in old people homes these days too.
Like when Cuomo made NY old folk's homes take in COVID patients and then lied about how many people were infected? Spoiler: it killed about as many people as you'd expect.
Post by: TamerVirus on February 26, 2021, 10:58:30 am
Aw fuck
Post by: McTraveller on February 26, 2021, 01:55:30 pm
Post by: LordBaal on February 26, 2021, 01:59:16 pm
Post by: Vector on February 26, 2021, 02:03:18 pm
I don't know what to say, I'm grateful I haven't lost a single person, I actually only seem to know one friend who has even had it, and a different friend who had a contact who died. But in my circle, we're healthy. I'm very tired.
Post by: misko27 on February 26, 2021, 02:55:17 pm
On the, uh, brighter side my mother and sister are scheduled for March 11th and 12th, respectively, while I just received mine today. Moderna. Feeling fine so far! Big needle though. Flashbacks to getting vaccinated for Bird Flu as a kid.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on February 26, 2021, 08:20:55 pm
Wife now has both shots.
Post by: nenjin on February 26, 2021, 08:52:14 pm
Post by: delphonso on February 26, 2021, 11:21:32 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 27, 2021, 12:29:00 am
Two kids in my school left with fevers and I was there for the "sanitization" of the classroom. A dude in sandals sprayed bleach-water around the desks the kids sat on. Not the chairs or even the tops of the desks... I'm feeling a bit less confident about how well they'll manage the next wave here.I wouldn't worry about it, since the virus is not transmitted by surfaces anyway.
Post by: LordBaal on February 27, 2021, 08:32:20 am
There is already gossip of regular mortals like me paying to get ahead in the queues (or vaccinated at all), in big fat dollars.
Post by: feelotraveller on February 27, 2021, 02:57:33 pm
Quote
COVID-19 spreads less commonly through contact with contaminated surfaces
- Respiratory droplets can also land on surfaces and objects. It is possible that a person could get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or eyes.
- Spread from touching surfaces is not thought to be a common way that COVID-19 spreads
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html)
Enough of the bullshit. Someone could die as a result of your misinformation. Many thousands have already died because political players couldn't convey accurate information, let's not sink to their level.
Post by: delphonso on February 28, 2021, 02:17:16 am
I wouldn't worry about it, since the virus is not transmitted by surfaces anyway.
*cuts to the time I saw a student licking their desk as if it were a recently finished bowl of ice cream*
QuoteCOVID-19 spreads less commonly through contact with contaminated surfaces
- Respiratory droplets can also land on surfaces and objects. It is possible that a person could get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or eyes.
- Spread from touching surfaces is not thought to be a common way that COVID-19 spreads
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html)
Enough of the bullshit. Someone could die as a result of your misinformation. Many thousands have already died because political players couldn't convey accurate information, let's not sink to their level.
Cheers, this was basically my concern - kids spit and are dirty. I know my school was just doing it as a precaution and didn't expect the students to be transmitting Covid (photos were also taken to prove the school is taking precautions - pretty common practice in China. The photos included several of sandalsman not even spraying and just waving the machine around) but yeah, not inspiring a lot of confidence. I don't expect my school to be the worst, either. We're new and have a lot of investors so the head honcho is pretty carefree with spending - while other schools may cut corners on things like this.
Post by: feelotraveller on February 28, 2021, 12:05:14 pm
In terms of reducing the (already low to very low) chance of transmission via surface, roughly in order of importance: prevent people with covid from attending the school, ensure good face mask practice and provide as much ventilation as possible. All of those also reduce the risk of aerosol transmission. Beyond that regular hand-washing (scrub for 30 seconds) for breaking a possible surface to hand to nose/mouth route; and it is a good health habit to develop anyways.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 28, 2021, 04:51:02 pm
But also,
*cuts to the time I saw a student licking their desk as if it were a recently finished bowl of ice cream*this massively realigns my assumptions about the intelligence of the students in question. An indirect droplet-based transmission where one kid sneezes on something and another rubs his face in it while wet... is a scenario I hadn't even imagined because it's completely outside the realm of my experience. But it could happen. I was assuming, since you were talking about sanitising surfaces after use (apparently at the end of the day), that they were dry.
Post by: MonkeyHead on February 28, 2021, 06:02:39 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 28, 2021, 06:18:50 pm
As a yardstick, consider one of average intelligence. Half of them are below that.Sure, I know that. The problem here is that my impressions of average intelligence are severely overestimated because of my life history.
Post by: delphonso on February 28, 2021, 07:16:28 pm
Oh, trust me, some school age students are pretty boneheaded, often willfully so for the sake of it. As a yardstick, consider one of average intelligence. Half of them are below that.
Or at least - without inhibitions most of the time.
To clarify further - this was in the middle of my class, halfway through the day, and we resumed class after the spraydown.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 28, 2021, 07:19:00 pm
Ergo, it's probably in everyone's best interests, non-science-based political entities and otherwise, to suggest that you clean up after other people and wipe down public surfaces, or to wipe down everything for peace of mind.Well sure, I'll agree with that any day. But people should be doing that ANYWAY. There isn't actually much more reason to do that now than there is all the time. I find the fact that people haven't changed their perceived risk levels way, way less concerning than the levels they had them at in the first place.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 28, 2021, 07:39:53 pm
So yes, suggest we do that all the time anyways, but not when the CDC says it, because they're a political, non-science-based entity, but still do it because that's smart, yeah?No, I mean, do that all the time anyway, but don't do it because of the coronavirus when it will have zero impact on the spread of the coronavirus.
Quote
Might be the CDC guidelines are best-practice advisory for those who are not us, eh? Fault them for saying it because it's dumb to you and common sense, sure, but it's common sense because an entity like the CDC is saying to do it.No, I fault them for saying that it has anything to do with this particular virus. If they said "clean your surfaces so you don't get other diseases that do have this kind of transmission demonstrated", that would be a completely different scenario. Misleading people to get them to do something is not okay even if the thing itself is usually a good idea. We need to be honest and follow the science, especially in a situation like this. Keep in mind, COVID-19 is mild as novel diseases go. The chances are very high that, within the next generation or so, we're going to see something much, much worse. If our institutions can't even acquit themselves rationally with this trial run, what chance do we have when that happens?
To clarify further - this was in the middle of my class, halfway through the day, and we resumed class after the spraydown.I almost missed this. So, it was just entirely theatrical? I mean, if you just... went back to sitting at the same desks you were just sitting at ten minutes ago... then it wouldn't matter if they had sterilised them with flamethrowers: you'd already been exposed to anything on them!
Post by: Starver on February 28, 2021, 07:42:28 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on February 28, 2021, 09:48:53 pm
Oh, trust me, some school age students are pretty boneheaded, often willfully so for the sake of it. As a yardstick, consider one of average intelligence. Half of them are below that.Half of them are below the median - the smartest of them pull the average up above that - so more than half are below the average.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 28, 2021, 09:52:28 pm
Oh, trust me, some school age students are pretty boneheaded, often willfully so for the sake of it. As a yardstick, consider one of average intelligence. Half of them are below that.Half of them are below the median - the smartest of them pull the average up above that - so more than half are below the average.
Was going to say this.
Post by: Starver on March 01, 2021, 03:54:08 am
Post by: King Zultan on March 01, 2021, 04:14:13 am
Post by: MonkeyHead on March 01, 2021, 06:25:25 am
Oh, trust me, some school age students are pretty boneheaded, often willfully so for the sake of it. As a yardstick, consider one of average intelligence. Half of them are below that.Half of them are below the median - the smartest of them pull the average up above that - so more than half are below the average.
Was going to say this.
Unless there are a few really stupid ones, pulling in the other direction...
Yay semantics! Never change, B12LB.
Post by: delphonso on March 01, 2021, 07:45:59 am
Post by: MonkeyHead on March 01, 2021, 08:32:42 am
As a teacher, I'd actually support the "few very stupid ones pulling down the average" model.
Snap
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 01, 2021, 01:02:59 pm
You two are so mean!
Oh lol I was just going to say that half are below the median not the mean in general in quantified measurements. Not about this specific case... I'm not sure where the median is relative to the mean here and there are huge problems with trying to quantify intelligence anyway.
Post by: McTraveller on March 01, 2021, 04:15:40 pm
Post by: McTraveller on March 01, 2021, 05:01:17 pm
I'm thinking my age group and career cohort won the lottery though? We can potentially get the single-dose vaccine, instead of two-dose. I've been lazy and haven't been following the data closely. Is this a legit bonus, or is it "meh"?
Post by: Ziusudra on March 01, 2021, 06:03:22 pm
Except there is a floor to intelligence but no real ceiling. Unless there are people with negative intelligence.Oh, trust me, some school age students are pretty boneheaded, often willfully so for the sake of it. As a yardstick, consider one of average intelligence. Half of them are below that.Half of them are below the median - the smartest of them pull the average up above that - so more than half are below the average.
Was going to say this.
Unless there are a few really stupid ones, pulling in the other direction...
Yay semantics! Never change, B12LB.
Post by: Vector on March 01, 2021, 06:05:03 pm
Can we switch topics, y'all? I don't have a good one but the entire field of IQ testing was formed by American eugenicists who wanted excuses to enact regressive immigration law.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 01, 2021, 09:40:18 pm
I think the diversion is a fatigue coping mechanism....
I'm thinking my age group and career cohort won the lottery though? We can potentially get the single-dose vaccine, instead of two-dose. I've been lazy and haven't been following the data closely. Is this a legit bonus, or is it "meh"?
Meh, at best. In fact I'd probably extend that to shortchanged. Still that's assuming an ideal world, and if the question is between no coverage and the single dose vaccine then it's definitely a windfall.
(Assuming its america and the two shot is moderna and the one shot is johnson.)
Worth checking Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine#Efficacy) as a starting point for information. And noting that we have no information about long-term health effects of any of the vaccines (hopefully there are none) or how each vaccine might or might not cover future strains.
In my own case the choice (in a few months) looks to be between astrazeneca or nothing, so az is the clear winner here. ;)
(In that ideal world I'd probably be opting for sputnik (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine), with pfizer at the top of the alternative short list. Although I'd be doing more research before making a final decision.)
Post by: nenjin on March 02, 2021, 03:57:38 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 02, 2021, 06:03:13 pm
Post by: wierd on March 03, 2021, 02:25:09 am
Just remind them, when they have 30% of their population suffering from systemic lung health problems for decades later, with profound numbers of people needing extensive medical assistance to live "normal" lives, that they don't get to ask for federal aid until they come clean and fix their shit, because of how much of bitch fit and virtue signalling shitshow they put on about being "Hard working" and "Not needing any aid!" while they gleefully discarded their masks, and that the end consequences for that set of choices coming home to roost with compound interest later, is not our responsibility, but theirs, and that in return for that aid they will need later, they **WILL** improve their healthcare, **WILL** improve their infrastructure, and **WILL** improve their social infrastructure for people with disabilities, before they can be eligible for it.
Post by: Jimmy on March 03, 2021, 06:12:47 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 03, 2021, 08:19:36 am
Fucking retarded fuck conspiracy fucktards.
Post by: Frumple on March 03, 2021, 10:18:24 am
Post by: Iduno on March 03, 2021, 06:57:13 pm
Just remind them, when they have 30% of their population suffering from systemic lung health problems for decades later, with profound numbers of people needing extensive medical assistance to live "normal" lives, that they don't get to ask for federal aid until they come clean and fix their shit, because of how much of bitch fit and virtue signalling shitshow they put on about being "Hard working" and "Not needing any aid!" while they gleefully discarded their masks, and that the end consequences for that set of choices coming home to roost with compound interest later, is not our responsibility, but theirs, and that in return for that aid they will need later, they **WILL** improve their healthcare, **WILL** improve their infrastructure, and **WILL** improve their social infrastructure for people with disabilities, before they can be eligible for it.
Problem is, you have 2 different groups of people you're conflating. Politicians have been enacting these laws, and the citizens are the only ones who are punished.
Post by: wierd on March 03, 2021, 07:05:24 pm
Just remind them, when they have 30% of their population suffering from systemic lung health problems for decades later, with profound numbers of people needing extensive medical assistance to live "normal" lives, that they don't get to ask for federal aid until they come clean and fix their shit, because of how much of bitch fit and virtue signalling shitshow they put on about being "Hard working" and "Not needing any aid!" while they gleefully discarded their masks, and that the end consequences for that set of choices coming home to roost with compound interest later, is not our responsibility, but theirs, and that in return for that aid they will need later, they **WILL** improve their healthcare, **WILL** improve their infrastructure, and **WILL** improve their social infrastructure for people with disabilities, before they can be eligible for it.
Problem is, you have 2 different groups of people you're conflating. Politicians have been enacting these laws, and the citizens are the only ones who are punished.
IF you believe the democratic process is working (throws salt over shoulder), then the politicians are representative of the will of the people, who would be suffering the brunt of the consequences of the people they elected.
The kind of separation you imply, implies a systemic breakdown in democratic representation.
Post by: thompson on March 04, 2021, 03:28:01 am
Privilege flows up, responsibility flows down.
Simple.
Post by: martinuzz on March 04, 2021, 09:57:23 pm
"We need to face and adress our problems. Stop whining. How long do you want to keep whining about your dead? Now there are some idiots that say we need to buy vaccins. Fuck your mother! There are no vaccins for sale in the world."
Post by: King Zultan on March 05, 2021, 04:50:31 am
Post by: Iduno on March 05, 2021, 02:49:04 pm
Just remind them, when they have 30% of their population suffering from systemic lung health problems for decades later, with profound numbers of people needing extensive medical assistance to live "normal" lives, that they don't get to ask for federal aid until they come clean and fix their shit, because of how much of bitch fit and virtue signalling shitshow they put on about being "Hard working" and "Not needing any aid!" while they gleefully discarded their masks, and that the end consequences for that set of choices coming home to roost with compound interest later, is not our responsibility, but theirs, and that in return for that aid they will need later, they **WILL** improve their healthcare, **WILL** improve their infrastructure, and **WILL** improve their social infrastructure for people with disabilities, before they can be eligible for it.
Problem is, you have 2 different groups of people you're conflating. Politicians have been enacting these laws, and the citizens are the only ones who are punished.
IF you believe the democratic process is working (throws salt over shoulder), then the politicians are representative of the will of the people, who would be suffering the brunt of the consequences of the people they elected.
The kind of separation you imply, implies a systemic breakdown in democratic representation.
*Gestures at everything*
Post by: Magistrum on March 05, 2021, 05:41:51 pm
I volunteer for the eulogy on democracy's funeral.IF you believe the democratic process is working (throws salt over shoulder), then the politicians are representative of the will of the people, who would be suffering the brunt of the consequences of the people they elected.
The kind of separation you imply, implies a systemic breakdown in democratic representation.
*Gestures at everything*
"Goodbye darling. Even when we could, we didn't quite manage to manifest what it was that we wanted."
Post by: martinuzz on March 06, 2021, 08:18:08 am
They weren't even stupid teenagers that don't know what they are saying, nope, 57 years and 37 years old.
Post by: LordBaal on March 06, 2021, 09:09:13 am
Most people still works but with the stores front closed and people coming in on the side/back doors.
Post by: Starver on March 06, 2021, 09:30:22 am
(What annoys me most is the total inability to proof-read the 'notice', which is not only legally invalid but pains me with its errors.)
Post by: Vector on March 07, 2021, 12:38:17 am
My family didn't lose anyone to the 1918 pandemic and we're not likely to lose anyone to this one either, but, this is, this situation is just sad. Just sad.
Post by: Caz on March 07, 2021, 04:30:11 am
Is that virus deaths alone?
Post by: LordBaal on March 07, 2021, 05:38:49 am
Post by: Duuvian on March 07, 2021, 07:23:38 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/06/us/emergent-biosolutions-anthrax-coronavirus.html
It always amazes me when an entity whether government, corporate, or a little of both responds to news that they've been doing wrong with demands for more money.
Post by: Frumple on March 07, 2021, 09:48:28 am
Bet it includes suicides and indirect deaths too.Probably not? Half a million dead people is a lot of friends and family, even in a population of three hundred million. Human connections being what they are, you probably don't need to draw from indirect deaths to get a third of the country losing someone fairly close to them.
Managed to avoid it so far, personally, but more than one of my (less than two dozen) co-workers haven't, so, y'know.
Post by: LordBaal on March 07, 2021, 10:22:47 am
Maybe more, but that migth be true for most countries at this point.
Post by: Frumple on March 07, 2021, 03:35:19 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on March 10, 2021, 10:10:31 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 11, 2021, 04:49:37 am
Post by: Starver on March 11, 2021, 02:25:54 pm
(Then consider that the vaccinated are heavily skewed to the older population, which shifts the probabilities even further away.)
Just my first thoughts, not having any access to the medical records doubtless being sifted through (both AE sufferers and those with no problems) to try to prove/disprove the true possibilities of a connection. If it's closely tied to a batch (or single manufacturing origin) then of course it could be 30ish-in-mere-thousands, and potentially more significant a threat.
For Denmark (and Norway) to freeze the AZ rollout must mean they are happy with their remaining doses to take up enough of the slack to not make it more disadvantageous to those still waiting, whatever the case.
Post by: martinuzz on March 14, 2021, 05:28:37 pm
For at least the coming two weeks, vaccinations with it are on hold.
According to our minister 'the reason for this decision is new information that has come to light this weekend. It concerns more and different cases than the limited number of trombose related cases on which our medicine admission agency based it's earlier advice'.
It is not made clear what other cases are implied.
So the Netherlands is now added to the list of Denmark, Norway, Iceland and Ireland, which already have stopped using AstraZeneca vaccin as a precaution.
Post by: Starver on March 14, 2021, 07:11:03 pm
I don't think it's enough to actually infer anything, either way. Don't imagne that I think we'll ever know before a lot more time has passed, if then.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 14, 2021, 08:05:40 pm
Personally I think its 75% hysteria
Post by: delphonso on March 15, 2021, 12:49:02 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2021, 09:59:33 am
Post by: Iduno on March 15, 2021, 10:45:05 am
Now Germany too has stopped using AstraZeneca. Cases of inexplicable low blood platelets after vaccination are being investigated.
I wonder if it's only because of the blood clots, or that blood clots weren't reported as a potential side effect. The laws on not reporting known side effects are pretty serious.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2021, 10:51:41 am
Post by: Starver on March 15, 2021, 05:28:16 pm
It looks like everyone is picking up their own 'favourite' version of "children born to Israeli fighter pilots". Which is even stranger than before.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 15, 2021, 07:43:10 pm
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-reports-that-ireland-has-suspended-the-use-of-the-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine/
Quote
. The publicly available information on the AstraZeneca vaccine lists a total of 35 cases of thrombocytopenia reported on “Yellow Cards” in the UK up to 8th March 2021.
Anecdotally, I can tell you that someone under my care had signs of low plt counts around a few days after AZ, with no lab confirmation yet.
Not necessarily related either given my trade. I can think of three other more likely reasons for low platelets.
Post by: dragdeler on March 16, 2021, 04:52:45 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2021, 06:02:48 am
These national moratoriums (against EMA advice btw... I suspect EMA is far less politiced than national regulators) to me sound like the goverments of EU countries are fed up of AZ and want to dump them in favor of J&J.
I dont think its a good idea to do it like this btw. There's a real cost to delaying the vaccination program, even by a couple of weeks. I'd rather keep on giving AZ until the other vaccines could be rolled out en masse.
Post by: wierd on March 16, 2021, 06:10:03 am
DEFINITELY not a placebo, but only expected immunological reaction to second dose. (which to me, just proves it is not placebo.)
The stated ratings for it are quite nice too.
J&J us supposed to be similar. I agree that delaying vaccination is just unconsionable, but since when as a little thing like THAT stopped politicians from doing the stupid? (last I checked, NEVER.)
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2021, 12:47:03 pm
If you tested the vaccines on 1 000 000 randomly-sampled individuals and only ten of them died, that doesn't mean the probability of dying is 1 in 100 000. The outcome doesn't always depend on just the vaccine, but also the person: their health, their genetics, etc.
Even if you sampled 1 000 000 people from the entire planet in a truly random fashion, you can expect about 130 people to be from a specific population of size 1 000 000 (hypergeometric distribution). If even a single one of them dies and the cause is due to a characteristic unique to this population e.g. isolated genetic history that creates a "common" genetic condition that leads to a lethal immune response, that's suddenly 1 in 130 chance of death for that population.
Take Finland, population ~5.5 million. Expected number of Finns among the global 1 000 000 tests? About 700. If one of them dies due to a vaccine interaction with a condition abnormally prevalent among Finns (e.g. a Finnish heritage disease), that's 1 in 700. Or an expected number of deaths of about 8 000, far from the 5-6 people that you would expect with a 1 ppm probability of death.
Now obviously, not every Finn would be at risk of death since not every Finn has a Finnish heritage disease (~20 % has as at least one related gene defect). But it's important to rule out the possibility, or you'll end up with another Pandemrix narcolepsy PR fiasco that leads to more vaccine hesitation and skepticism.
Post by: martinuzz on March 16, 2021, 12:51:57 pm
I don't believe this is a politically motivated choice. I think that in the light of things, NOT pausing the vaccination would cause more harm (more people converting to the antivax loony camp)
Post by: Starver on March 16, 2021, 01:09:38 pm
Neither of which options are likely. And a discovery of this would be Very Important, to all kinds of people.
PPE: And how many antivaxers will be created by officials saying "we're so unsure about this vaccine that we'd prefer to let people stay unvaccinated"? At face-value, I say it's a stupid and probably non-medical decision.
Post by: Frumple on March 16, 2021, 01:12:51 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 16, 2021, 02:00:49 pm
Post by: dragdeler on March 16, 2021, 04:41:31 pm
Post by: Starver on March 16, 2021, 04:59:18 pm
(As to the rest, it's debatable. Less than 40 reported clotting events in almost 20 million doses, effectiveness against strains doesn't seem to be down as far as preventing serious illness, just doesn't completely quash mild effects. The company maybe did overpromise on supply, given they hit localised production difficulties, but they're not the only one and other parties involved were even more unprepared and tried a staring contest for their part.)
Post by: Folly on March 16, 2021, 07:22:32 pm
No official announcement yet linking it to COVID...but it's probably because of COVID.
Post by: TD1 on March 17, 2021, 06:24:47 am
... wouldn't that 1 in 700 still be a significant improvement over the rates for the plague?
You realise this is the Trolley Problem?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 17, 2021, 07:16:13 am
Welcome to the wonderful world of healthcare decisions. It's trolley problems all the way down and you never have complete info about which rails have people and which don't... wouldn't that 1 in 700 still be a significant improvement over the rates for the plague?
You realise this is the Trolley Problem?
Post by: scriver on March 17, 2021, 08:37:37 am
Post by: Starver on March 17, 2021, 10:32:37 am
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 20, 2021, 10:28:11 am
It the two dose one, so not only could I get double autism, but there's an opportunity for triple autism.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on March 20, 2021, 12:55:48 pm
I got my first vacc appointment scheduled last night.
It the two dose one, so not only could I get double autism, but there's an opportunity for triple autism.
Spoiler: Time to roll some dice (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on March 20, 2021, 01:10:30 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 20, 2021, 01:16:44 pm
FATALITY
Post by: dragdeler on March 20, 2021, 02:03:24 pm
Post by: Starver on March 20, 2021, 02:35:51 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on March 20, 2021, 03:20:21 pm
Just make sure you get the radioactive serum! Ideally delivered by the bite of some useful creature.
My eyes! The goggles, they do nothing!
Post by: LordBaal on March 20, 2021, 04:13:45 pm
-Its the acid ready?!!!
Post by: Vector on March 20, 2021, 10:57:48 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 21, 2021, 02:27:39 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 21, 2021, 04:55:53 am
It is a rare extreme immune response to the vaccin, causing the immune system to make antibodies against the body's own blood platelets.
In total, 25 people have developed this side effect, which caused blood clots in the brain or in the entire body. 9 of them died.
The good news is, now the mechanism is known, it can be easily treated. Instead of what should normaly be done with blood clotting problems, giving bloodthinning meds like heparine, patients suffering from this immune response should be treated with immunoglobulins, to restore the balance of their immune system (heparin makes it worse / kills the patient in this case).
The side effects are expected to occur about 1 in a million. It is not clear yet why this immune response mostly affects women of relative young age.
Post by: Starver on March 21, 2021, 02:41:39 pm
We had, something like, one clot fatality and four other reported cases out of 10 million UK vaccinations, biased towards men[1]. The causes of concerns that brought about the European 'precautions' were similarly rare but biased towards women[1]. This makes it look more like statistical blips siezed upon. You may even have more fatalities, post-vaccination, from DIY accidents - yet nobody is suggesting that there's a causation like a cordyceps- or toxoplasma gondii-like alteration of personal inhibitions towards more dangerous activities.
And France, which at one point was going with the "there's not enough evidence that it helps older people" line to suggest that it wasn't recommended for them, is not saying AZ should only go to older people. When older people are more susceptible to being struck down by blood-clots, moreover.
Colour me sceptical, still. There's more than medical opinion involved, of course.
[1] Or vice-versa, if I've misremembered.
Post by: martinuzz on March 21, 2021, 03:46:07 pm
They shared their discovery with their European colleauges last friday.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/oorzaak-van-bijwerking-astrazeneca-vaccin-ontdekt-behandeling-goed-mogelijk~b23a76622/
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 21, 2021, 03:48:28 pm
IIRC someone was mentioning that it might be a close cousin of heparin induced thrombocytopenia, which is likely the reason for this advisory guideline. Notably, despite the fact that HIT presents with low platelets but its actually a prothrombotic disorder, and will actually need anticoagulation - just not heparin, obviously.
But again, nobody knows for sure. I dont think there's anything formal published, but the numbers thrown around were really small, like, the theory was based on 7 people. It could be that or it could be literally anything else
Post by: Starver on March 21, 2021, 04:14:54 pm
It's practically a pre-prepub.
(Some more information about the spontaneous background incidence of this 'reaction' would be very welcome, before asserting causation. But will be hard to come by, unless it can be found in the bloods of those hospitalised (non-vaccinated), against the background of all the other conditions that cause hospitalisation.)
Post by: Bumber on March 22, 2021, 10:31:58 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 23, 2021, 03:52:12 am
Post by: George_Chickens on March 23, 2021, 03:58:34 am
What's a K12 school? I know K9 is dog training, what is K12?SUPER dog training.
Post by: Ziusudra on March 23, 2021, 04:11:37 am
What's a K12 school? I know K9 is dog training, what is K12?Stands for Kindergarten to 12th grade and refers to the compulsory pre-college years of school.
Post by: Starver on March 23, 2021, 04:48:56 am
On actual virus news, which was why I actually wandered just now, does this put the cat amongst the pigeons (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56483445)? *achoo!*
[1] To replace, in my time: "Nursery" (pre-school); "Infants years 1..3?[2] + Juniors 1&2?[2]" (Primary school); "Lower school 1..3 + Upper school 4..5 + optional lower 6th, upper 6th" (Secondary)
[2] Hard to remember, classes were initialed to the teacher's name, and I'm not totally sure I recall them all properly. And maybe there was a 'nursery' infants' class that I skipped having been pre-pre-schooled at the more local Nursery.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2021, 03:30:24 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2021, 03:51:36 am
They warn that, even though other lockdown measures might reduce the spread of tuberculosis by about 50%, this could lead to 1.2 million extra infections and 375 thousand deaths this year in India, Kenia and Ukraine alone, and many more in the entire world.
These numbers are so large they cannot be waved away by a 'but we must fight corona'. Medical professionals urge the world to drop the single focus on corona and resume regular care and diagnosis.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2021, 03:55:11 am
Regardless of public healthcare wherever you live, I think it'd probably be a good idea to consider private insurance if you can afford it.
Post by: wierd on March 24, 2021, 04:10:00 am
They just have to practice fastidious hygiene and entry screening processes to keep from being a spread vector.
I am thankful, because I am finally getting some dental care done I needed done LAST GODDAMN YEAR.
Post by: martinuzz on March 24, 2021, 04:15:05 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2021, 06:20:22 am
Post by: Bumber on March 24, 2021, 07:09:55 pm
I assume people in the area who would require a hospital visit from COVID are mostly vaccinated or already dead.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 24, 2021, 08:40:25 pm
Post by: Vector on March 24, 2021, 08:44:12 pm
Among the adults, I mean. People talk about the kids' needs all the damn time.
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2021, 03:33:56 am
Post by: scriver on March 25, 2021, 05:52:36 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2021, 06:01:01 am
Post by: dragdeler on March 25, 2021, 12:50:34 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2021, 08:01:50 am
Last week, Tanzania's president, Magufuli died. Official government sources say he died of heart failure, but everyone else, from opposition to the foreign doctors that treated him say he died of corona.
Let this be an example to other world leaders that think denying covid is a thing, and taking no measures is a good idea.
Tanzania was a sad example of what happens when you have a someone like Bolsonaro, or Trump, or Baudet in charge of a nation, but without any opposition. Let's hope the Tanzanian former vice-, now president takes corona more seriously.
EDIT: or well yeah, positive is maybe not the right word to describe it. Poetic justice, I guess. The guy did improve the economy and wellbeing of his country quite a bit, until the power drove him mad and he turned full dictator.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 27, 2021, 01:20:40 pm
Slightly old, but positive news.
Last week, Tanzania's president, Magufuli died. Official government sources say he died of heart failure, but everyone else, from opposition to the foreign doctors that treated him say he died of corona.
Let this be an example to other world leaders that think denying covid is a thing, and taking no measures is a good idea.
Tanzania was a sad example of what happens when you have a someone like Bolsonaro, or Trump, or Baudet in charge of a nation, but without any opposition. Let's hope the Tanzanian former vice-, now president takes corona more seriously.
EDIT: or well yeah, positive is maybe not the right word to describe it. Poetic justice, I guess. The guy did improve the economy and wellbeing of his country quite a bit, until the power drove him mad and he turned full dictator.
Actually Magufuli couldn't have died of Covid since, as he declared on 8 June last year, Tanzania was cleansed of the disease through it's prayers to God. /s (Yep that has been the official line for close to a year now. :o)
The guy was nuts even compared to Trump or Bolsonaro.
Post by: martinuzz on March 27, 2021, 03:15:04 pm
Still, openly suggesting there is such a thing as corona in Tanzania has a chance of getting you arrested. Our journalist had trouble getting to speak to someone one on one, the regime handed her a free chaperone with her press visum.
Post by: martinuzz on March 31, 2021, 06:39:44 am
The Belgian court ruled today that all corona measures must end in 30 days.
Post by: None on March 31, 2021, 10:31:15 am
Is someone coming up for re-election?
Post by: Bumber on March 31, 2021, 10:39:20 am
Spoiler: Full text for those who can't access the article: (click to show/hide)
Post by: LordBaal on March 31, 2021, 03:06:32 pm
Post by: Starver on March 31, 2021, 05:17:19 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on March 31, 2021, 05:20:42 pm
Post by: scriver on March 31, 2021, 07:12:50 pm
Post by: thompson on March 31, 2021, 11:12:48 pm
For what it’s worth, there’s no real need to investigate the possibility of the virus escaping from the lab in Wuhan. The CCP have made it abundantly clear that it did.
Post by: LordBaal on March 31, 2021, 11:35:39 pm
Post by: King Zultan on April 01, 2021, 05:13:08 am
Post by: Frumple on April 01, 2021, 06:32:41 am
Now the real question: why didn’t Trump dish out the dirt on China if the US had intelligence suggested it was highly probable that it came from their labs?His administration tried, it was just less credible than the existence of a tortiseshell cat's nutsack. Problem with lying all the goddamn time about everything is that most people are actually capable of pattern recognition and start to disbelieve what you say. Additionally, folks with access to the background information later came in and said (like basically everything else that came out of the administration) the framing coming out of trump's lot was more spun horseshit than not. Official stance on the subject still appears to be "we still don't have sufficient information to rule out a lab origination entirely, but that's all we can actually say".
Any case, I'd recommend giving that wapo opinion article exactly as much weight as a china hawk opinion columnist deserves on the subject, i.e. roughly zero :P
Post by: None on April 01, 2021, 10:26:38 am
The article's got no content, really, it's just a headline to drum up hate and suspicion in the common man until something or nothing comes of it.
Post by: Iduno on April 01, 2021, 10:39:31 am
He's been banging this drum for a while. (https://www.cbsnews.com/video/joe-biden-accuses-president-trump-of-being-too-soft-on-china-in-coronavirus-response/)
If it weren't for all of the suffering it's causing and all of the lives lost, the party in opposition criticizing the party in power for the exact things they were doing and people believing it (as I used to until I watched them do it, as we have the opportunity to do again) would be entertaining. Just unbelievable enough to be satire.
Post by: feelotraveller on April 01, 2021, 07:25:39 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 02, 2021, 04:01:12 am
Where the normal average sick leave is around 4-5%, it is now at 15%
Post by: dragdeler on April 02, 2021, 04:05:19 am
Post by: Starver on April 02, 2021, 07:20:15 am
Post by: Iduno on April 02, 2021, 08:03:19 am
Restaurants have also had difficulty finding staff, which is a surprise. It's not consistent work (schedules usually change weekly), the pay is bad, and it's customer-facing which can be unpleasant when they aren't giving you the plague.
Post by: martinuzz on April 02, 2021, 02:25:46 pm
Germany already stopped using AstraZeneca again last week.
The side effect seems to happen more in women of younger age. It is still deemed safe for use over age 60.
The side effect usually occurs between 7 and 10 days after vaccination.
Post by: Starver on April 02, 2021, 07:12:55 pm
For 'contrast', 2 CVSTs, not sure if either were deaths, out of 10 million Pfizers. Which puts the former firmly in 'coincidental blip' territory. Even if you imagine a convenient degree of under-reporting.
For real contrast, Coronavirus death-risk is at a magnitude of thousands (up to tens of thousands, as you get older) more likely if you catch it, un-primed.
Post by: Ziusudra on April 03, 2021, 05:45:00 am
The WHO report on COVID origins is flawed, according to a Washington Post article. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/29/wuhan-covid-lab-accident-investigation-who/)That is not an article, it is an oped - see the "opinions" in the url?
Post by: scriver on April 03, 2021, 06:44:05 am
Post by: Ziusudra on April 03, 2021, 07:07:06 am
Post by: Starver on April 03, 2021, 07:27:07 am
Spoiler: Article (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on April 03, 2021, 07:35:30 am
Like I said, I fully understand your point about it being an opinion piece. But you're using the language wrong.
Post by: Starver on April 03, 2021, 08:44:36 am
Like I said, I fully understand you're point about it being an opinion piece. But your using the language wrong.FTFY
;)
(Because my intended "smaller part within the whole" pun, with part reference to the frilly jockstrap picture, just didn't cut the mustard. But now I've got that out of my system (*fnar fnar*), we can now return you to your regularly scheduled disagreements.)
Post by: Bumber on April 03, 2021, 07:45:36 pm
The Chinese scientists told officials they didn't have anything matching COVID in their labs, and everybody just took their word for it. What do you think would happen to them if they said they did, considering what happened to Li Wenliang and others who tried to sound the alarm about COVID existing in the first place?
Post by: Duuvian on April 03, 2021, 11:59:19 pm
It might have been an outbreak from a lab. I don't know because I'm not a virologist with the tools and experience to distinguish lab cultures from wild cultures. From what I read in the early days of the pandemic, virologists said they hadn't seen any markers of a lab strain but that it wasn't enough to conjecture with 100% reliability. That's the people with expertise saying that. My own assumption is that it came from wild animals.
One thing to remember is that there is a very vocal anti-China political push in the US and likely other Western countries. While in many ways this is warranted disagreement from a capitalistic democratic bloc, I do feel that is is being pushed by political and industry elites who would benefit financially from a new Cold War as wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East seem to have routes to winding down forming. I say this at least partially because of the way Pompeo acted.
I think this rhetoric may be a cause for the sudden change in tactics by the Chinese government and has hastened a policy change towards more pressure outwards. For example, China has moored a 200 ship "fishing fleet" within waters internationally recognized as within 200 nautical miles of the coast of the Phillipines. When you look at the map of islands being built, it reads as a line of fortification around the South China Sea that can be fortified to keep a hostile navy farther away.
I do believe the Chinese leadership is doing wrong with the Uighur camps, the civil unrest their policies are causing in Hong Kong, and now blocking the UN from doing much as a body in Myanmar. Unfortunately the US's leadership of the past 4 years particularly, though previous presidents also did, has made it very difficult to take the moral high ground on these issues without some hypocrisy involved.
I would encourage attempts to hold China's leadership accountable for such things, but I also worry that a Cold War is being pushed between the super powers when such is not necessary. The way I look at it is that barring the US economy taking off like a rocket (which may happen to some extent with the influx of money to the less wealthy, though necessary pandemic restrictions will hinder it's start imo though it's preferable to a million dead imo) or policy encouraging a baby boom/allowing more migrants to start families in the US, the Chinese government simply have the human capital to emerge the strongest economy eventually. However should that happen,the US and Western societies will not "lose" either, as parts of it's culture and ideasare being slowly spread through internet, entertainment, and other forms of projecting culture. This is sort of the mirror of "Melting Pot America", in that culture and ideas are adapted and spread when it's sensible to those exposed to it. Ideas last far longer than weapons.
Post by: Vector on April 04, 2021, 02:12:57 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 05, 2021, 02:32:10 pm
RIP Schengen I guess.
Post by: dragdeler on April 05, 2021, 07:06:51 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 06, 2021, 03:00:14 am
Post by: scriver on April 06, 2021, 05:17:56 am
Not that I blame them for wanting their purchasing power to stay in the country of course, I'd want that too. But it just makes it abundantly clear that it was the experts who said "this isn't about epidemic prevention, it's a financial decision" that was correct.
edit: milliards, not billiards
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 06, 2021, 03:22:52 pm
The Norwegian state has earned 6 billiard crowns in taxes over the closed border to Sweden (https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/varmland/granshandeln-bloder-men-den-norska-staten-tjanar-miljarder-pa-gransstangningen).
That'd be "trillion" for us Americans, right?
Post by: dragdeler on April 06, 2021, 03:31:01 pm
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2021, 03:39:38 pm
To short-scalers that's a Quadrillion. That sounds like a lot. 1NOK being 12US¢, apparently. (Yep, drag, you ninja you, I was also wondering if it was Turkish Lira all over again, but apparently not.)
ETA: A quick glance at the untranslated text of that link only mentions "16 miljarder" (presume 16 Thousand Million, or short Billions) as the number of Norwegian Krone, but I haven't established the context, and if it's mentioned in the embedded video report then it'll probably[1] not be worth piping it through a page-translator.
[1] Depends on how good Google have got with their all-pervasive natural language data-processing!
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 06, 2021, 05:01:35 pm
Post by: scriver on April 06, 2021, 06:06:33 pm
I meant billons as in the scale we don't use (we say milliards), but I mangled them together and said billiards by mistake
I am a foolhead
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 06, 2021, 08:02:39 pm
Sorry, my brain did a scale mess upThis is why the norwegians want to close the border, scriver.
I meant billons as in the scale we don't use (we say milliards), but I mangled them together and said billiards by mistake
I am a foolhead
Post by: scriver on April 06, 2021, 08:54:27 pm
Post by: hector13 on April 06, 2021, 09:07:17 pm
Post by: King Zultan on April 07, 2021, 04:25:28 am
Post by: Egan_BW on April 07, 2021, 04:28:18 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 07, 2021, 04:52:49 am
According to a US study of about 250000 corona patients, 1 out of 3 ex-corona patients develop neurological and / or psychiatric problems within half a year after having recovered from corona.
Most cases involve anxiety disorders, depression, drug addiction and sleeplessness. But there are also a significant number of cases of brain strokes, dementia, and psychosis.
People who had corona, have a 44% higher chance to develop a neurological or mental illness than the normal population.
About 8% suffered from insomnia, about 1% developed psychosis.
About 1 out of 8 ex-corona patients suffered mental problems for the first time in their lives. That's twice as much as with ex-influenza patients.
Part of this can be explained by the horrible healthcare system in the US. The perspective of being bankrupt for the rest of your life because of ICU bills is ofcourse driving a lot of people insane, and the stress and terror of contracting corona isn't beneficial to mental health either.
This does not explain that a lot of their test subjects didn't get severe corona and weren't even hospitalized, they had a mild corona and recovered at home, yet they still developed problems about a half year later.
31% of those that did not need medical treatment for their corona still reported to have had neurological or psychiatric problems in the half year after.
The researchers are worried.
Lots of the illnesses turned out to be recurring and chronic.
They say worldwide healthcare systems should prepare extra capacity of neurology and psychiatry, because it is going to be needed for years to come.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/een-op-de-drie-coronapatienten-krijgt-hersenaandoening-of-geestelijke-problemen~b88cf593/
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00084-5/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00120-6/fulltext
Post by: dragdeler on April 07, 2021, 06:23:39 am
Post by: Starver on April 07, 2021, 07:23:34 am
Then why do some people call a billiards table a pool table?
because a pool table is what you use to play poolSnookered!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 07, 2021, 08:29:16 am
Post by: Frumple on April 07, 2021, 09:16:21 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 07, 2021, 11:37:21 am
Regardless of whether anxiety down the line might increase the risk of various conditions, you can't really lump them together. I think its mixing apples and oranges.
That being said upon further examination there's a breakdown down in the text, it just hadnt loaded the first time I clicked on the link for some reason
Post by: scriver on April 09, 2021, 04:28:32 am
Post by: Frumple on April 09, 2021, 07:10:46 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 09, 2021, 12:02:16 pm
First dose scheduled for Sunday. I'm thinking of pre-scheduling a vacation day the Monday after the second shot; I've heard that's the worse one.
I was going to wait a bit, but my state has the worst increase in cases and hospitalizations we've seen this pandemic so far...so I'm not tarrying. I'm more than two score in age, so I'm not really in a low-risk group either...
Post by: DeKaFu on April 09, 2021, 11:15:14 pm
I understand why they did it, but I have some issues. Nobody else in the world (that I'm aware of) has extended the interval by this much. We have no idea how much protection someone with only a single shot is going to have four months out, especially now that the UK variant has become the dominant strain here. We know the protection drops with time, and faster for older and immunocompromised people. The second shot is what grants it staying power. But I guess if there's any issues we'll find out when our entire population is knee-deep in it?
I'd really rather have had the option to choose whether to consent to this experiment.
I also hate the idea that this basically means any other studies or data that comes out about these vaccines in the coming months/years will basically be non-applicable to us, because our use of them was so wildly different.
So many people seem to be enthusiastic about it, and dismissive of anyone even questioning it (hope you enjoy being called 'anti-science' for suggesting it might not be supported by science, since no-one has studied it), and it's making me feel a bit crazy. Obviously I'll still jump on the first vaccine I'm offered, in a few months time, but... I don't like it.
Post by: hector13 on April 09, 2021, 11:33:50 pm
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2021, 01:09:43 am
I know someone who has just had their second AZ jab at about 10 weeks, though. Expected it in a fortnight. That might mean we're actually slightly above the number of doses realistically expected to sustain 12-weeks. Or vaccine refusal/un-soughtedness is higher than expected due to the bad press, boostering the shot-slots available for returnees. Or both.
(My own expectations have been bouncing around between as late as August, at some points, down to date we've now passed, at others, as to when I'd be asked to book. I'm at the younger edge of the pure age-priority ranking but also no (known) health/support issues, so I'd be very happy to get the nod but know there's others who are probably net better off getting my theoretical earliest slot, instead of me. I think if I were chasing it with enough force of argument, I could have wangled a date by now, if not have had the primer already. I still think it was a bad decision to not do any non-medical keyworkers (police, teachers, bus-drivers...) in advance of their personal age/health positions, as well.)
I can't tell you right now what the statistical result of all this messing about (or lack of it) with the authorised schedule actually is. We seem to be firmly out of the latest wave (and that even with incidence of the UK-variant, pretty much by definition), but disentangling treatment and lockdown (it's hardly been two weeks since the first stage of relaxation) is way beyond my paygrade, as a calculation.
Post by: wierd on April 10, 2021, 01:30:29 am
Given that there is a strong desire to prevent another mass-death spiral, it makes logistical sense to maximize the single shot population, as that will greatly curb manifest R value for the pathogen, due to a lack of highly vulnerable hosts.
It makes sense to do it that way, but only because of lack of supplies.
Like Poo, I am a healthcare worker and got double-shot early in the pipeline. I am now waiting for my friends and family to get their jabs.
Post by: scriver on April 10, 2021, 07:33:47 am
Edit: It was Pfizer by the way, which I remember because fis is fart in Swedish and that is always funny
My opinion on extended reshot times is that I'm not particularly keen on the idea. Maybe for younger folks were the risk is lower but I really want our elders and other premier cases/occupationants to be able to be protected.
Post by: martinuzz on April 10, 2021, 07:38:18 am
Post by: DeKaFu on April 10, 2021, 10:00:57 am
The protection afforded by the single dose is very significant for Moderna and Pfizer jabs. (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-study-shows-single-dose-of-pfizer-or-moderna-covid-vaccines-was-80percent-effective.html) It is not full potency until after the second jab (Then it reaches 90+% resistance), but the first confers very profound resistance.I see this quoted a lot as justification for the delay, but as far as I know the 80% number refers to the peak efficacy that occurs a couple weeks after the injection, before it begins dropping. I've been hunting for any studies that show what efficacy is at the 12-16 week range, and have come up completely blank. The closest I found was one that seemingly pooled the numbers up to around 12 weeks (so lumping people who'd gotten it two weeks ago and three months ago into the same average, making it impossible to tease out how the long wait affects people). If anyone actually knows of a study that addresses this, I'd love to see it and be reassured.
Post by: Iduno on April 10, 2021, 10:05:22 am
The protection afforded by the single dose is very significant for Moderna and Pfizer jabs. (https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-study-shows-single-dose-of-pfizer-or-moderna-covid-vaccines-was-80percent-effective.html) It is not full potency until after the second jab (Then it reaches 90+% resistance), but the first confers very profound resistance.I see this quoted a lot as justification for the delay, but as far as I know the 80% number refers to the peak efficacy that occurs a couple weeks after the injection, before it begins dropping. I've been hunting for any studies that show what efficacy is at the 12-16 week range, and have come up completely blank. The closest I found was one that seemingly pooled the numbers up to around 12 weeks (so lumping people who'd gotten it two weeks ago and three months ago into the same average, making it impossible to tease out how the long wait affects people). If anyone actually knows of a study that addresses this, I'd love to see it and be reassured.
I think a lot of it depends on how quickly and widely it's spreading, which both allow for more mutations. Like here, where nobody gives a shit about anything, we have incredibly high rates, and have seen a lot of people getting re-infected despite all of the arguments about "herd immunity."
Post by: McTraveller on April 10, 2021, 05:02:21 pm
and have seen a lot of people getting re-infected despite all of the arguments about "herd immunity."Is this true, or anecdotal? I mean I would expect the media to be all over itself if this was statistically true. There was that "one" case last summer, and it was everywhere...
Looks like a Denmark study on 4 million people indicate 0.65% (65 per 10,000) of people who had been COVID-19 positive have had "reinfection." That's a small percent, but not a small absolute number... I mean holy smokes it seems like at least in the US, 10% of the entire population has had COVID-19? 31M total positive cases. That's 3k ten-thousands, which means we should be seeing 200k reinfections. Even if you just take the "recovered" number from the US, that would still be over 100k reinfections. Maybe if you take that number and discount it further so it's just "recovered for more than 4 months", I think that would be only half those recovered - so still 50k reinfected.
Wouldn't the media be screaming about this even if it was as many as 10k?
Also interesting tidbits: the positive test fraction of all tests in my state has surged to 18%. WTF?
We've also apparently had half our state with at least one dose of a vaccine, and 20% of the state with full doses. I'm like - at some point there has to be an inflection point yes? Supposedly 8% of the people in the state have had the disease, probably more if you account for people that didn't know they had it.
Either the numbers don't mean what they seem to mean, there really is a major impact of new strains, or the people in the state who haven't been infected yet have basically given up any preventive measures.
EDIT: powers of 10 Fix!
Post by: Frumple on April 10, 2021, 05:39:38 pm
Post by: Jopax on April 11, 2021, 12:32:57 pm
At least now I know why this apparent cold has been so annoying and causing such a long lasting headache. I just hope it doesn't really go on for too long because a week of feeling unable to think properly is plenty imo :I
Luckily tho, nobody else seems to be in a bad way so far, mostly just a nastier cold by the looks of it.
Post by: Iduno on April 11, 2021, 12:45:50 pm
and have seen a lot of people getting re-infected despite all of the arguments about "herd immunity."Is this true, or anecdotal?
For me? It's a lot of people, but I mostly know people who were considered essential until it was time to hand out vaccines. Public-facing jobs and the like.
And we have one of the highest COVID rates in the US, which is pretty impressive, so we have one of the highest rates of mutation. Makes it easier to re-infect.
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2021, 02:30:53 pm
Our government in turn, happily announced that they were considering re-opening outside terraces for pubs, and re-opening highschools and universities. Today, they postponed that with at least a week.
All our hospitals are near the limit of their ICU capacity. ICUs haven't been this full since the first wave in 2020.
My neurologist doctor friend told me today that in her hospital, they have been preparing for 'the black scenario' the past few weeks... Triage.. Having to decide who gets an ICU bed and who gets to die without one.
Fuck this pandemic and fuck all the contradicting statements by various CDCs and virologists. Maybe they should just abolish the CDC, send the virologists on a long (deserved) vacation, and only listen to the medics in the (ICU) field for a while.
EDIT: except, that won't work, because the ICU experts are too busy saving lives on the ICUs to be bothered with giving advice to the government.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on April 11, 2021, 02:39:43 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2021, 02:42:57 pm
Post by: Jopax on April 11, 2021, 03:48:42 pm
For some reason the twits interpret any tiny amount of good news or improvement in the overall situation as a signal to try and go back to normal right away.
Post by: Starver on April 13, 2021, 07:12:58 am
(I think the key word is still 'over'. 6 cases in >6million doses is actually a million-to-one thing. That it's six women may be significant, but that they're all in the younger demographics probably isn't, if that's the range that was now the main focus.)
Also, Scotland's opening up inter-area travel, for mental-health reasons. Honestly, I know of some people already pushed this one a little, already, going from one end of their region to the other for safe and isolating activities but outwith the spirit of the regulation (travelling the same distance in another direction, they'd have broken the regulation officially, though still been as safe), so I'm not sure what the ultimate cost/benefit balance will be in allowing broader meet-ups. Still supposedly limited in scope, but you'll bet it'll be pushed slightly (or more) over the limit in some cases. (Yes, I was already socially introverted, maybe I just don't get it.)
Keeping an eye on England's rates, with the unlock-back-ups stages already done and imminent. The other nations too (though Norn Irnd is complicated with sectarian rioting, on top of it all).
Post by: martinuzz on April 13, 2021, 09:08:20 am
Post by: TamerVirus on April 13, 2021, 10:13:02 am
Post by: McTraveller on April 13, 2021, 10:55:28 am
Sounds like a "perfect is the greatest enemy of good enough" situation to me.
To be fair, I don't know where you should draw the line for "this is an acceptable level of risk for this vaccine." I mean if it's on the same order of magnitude of hazard of the illness, then yeah it's no good. But what is the commonly accepted criteria? Is there an accepted criteria? I'm familiar with acceptable levels of risk for the transportation industry* and "1 in a million" after accounting for total population is definitely "acceptable".
Disclaimer: My wife got the J&J shot, so I do have skin in this game. I just got a first dose of Pfizer.
Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 13, 2021, 11:40:00 am
The risk of thrombosis with covid is 1 in 5.
TBH I think the risk benefit is clear
Post by: Vector on April 13, 2021, 11:55:12 am
Post by: TamerVirus on April 13, 2021, 03:35:04 pm
Post by: Vector on April 13, 2021, 03:55:56 pm
Post by: LordBaal on April 14, 2021, 08:04:28 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2021, 11:08:26 am
The risk of thrombosis with these vaccines seems to be 1 per millionNo, it's one in 1000000. Still way below the risk of trombosis from 'the pill' for women, but not entirely negligable either.
The risk of thrombosis with covid is 1 in 5.
TBH I think the risk benefit is clear
I am going to ask my doctor for Pfizer or Moderna. My dad got unexplained trombosis age 39, a wound that never healed for the rest of his life. He died of heart attack age 51, when I was 15.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 14, 2021, 11:20:48 am
1.000.000 = one million. Your math is weak old man.The risk of thrombosis with these vaccines seems to be 1 per millionNo, it's one in 1.000.000. Still way below the risk of trombosis from 'the pill' for women, but not entirely negligable either.
The risk of thrombosis with covid is 1 in 5.
TBH I think the risk benefit is clear
I am going to ask my doctor for Pfizer or Moderna. My dad got unexplained trombosis age 39, a wound that never healed for the rest of his life. He died of heart attack age 51, when I was 15.
By all means get the pfizer vaccine if you can. I mean its a better vaccine than Janssen or Oxford-AZ hands down re covid.
But the risk of thrombosis is pretty negligible and not clearly associated to any risk factors. Tbh the limiting factors here whether the govt in the NL wants to give you AZ or Janssen and/or whether it has pfizer available
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2021, 03:28:10 pm
Post by: Starver on April 14, 2021, 03:53:17 pm
Oh I accidentally double-typed a zero, I meant to type 100000.Ahhh... But which zero did you double-type?
(IGMC)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 14, 2021, 04:21:54 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2021, 04:28:41 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 14, 2021, 04:35:09 pm
That being said: if you're *really* that sidelined for a Pfizer vaccine I'd very much advise not to say no to an Astra Zeneca vaccine. Specially if you're worried about cardiovascular and/or thrombotic risk: covid19 is waaay worse than the AZ vaccine in that regard. Thrombosis is 1 in five.
Post by: andrea on April 14, 2021, 11:41:37 pm
Assuming martinuzz is fairly young, his assessment about timing is probably accurate.
Personally I am in the last quarter of population in Italy and don't expect anything for a long time yet. I was aiming for AZ or J&Jin September, but that seems like it won't happen.
Post by: Caz on April 14, 2021, 11:57:22 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 15, 2021, 02:54:18 am
Are those 250 million doses for the entire EU?
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2021, 10:13:34 am
So far side effects pretty mild. Bit of a headache, some arm pain, maybe a bit tired. Probably could have gotten through work today, but I'll take the boss telling me to just stay home. It's not major but it's definitely noticeable.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 15, 2021, 11:04:39 am
Are those 250 million doses for the entire EU?No, just for the Netherlands. The plan is to give every Dutch citizen 15 shots.
Post by: Starver on April 15, 2021, 12:19:18 pm
Click ick click. Booking details, then contact details then... "The slot is no longer available, start again".
Same slot looked available, on the go-round, so tried it again, contact details... "The slot is no longer available".
Ok, redo, moved the slot a bit (further away from the obvious untried-because-unavailable bits of the day, obviously in demand, and a lot more times within the new range chosen)... "The slot is no longer...".
Again, for a couple of hours more distant. "The slot is..."
It'll wait.
I'll either talk to my GP after all (don't really want to bother them, I've seen the queues outside they sometimes seem to have when I pass) or give the national site-booker another go next week. Still time to (theoretically) get the first and then the second one in before mid-July[3]
((Yes, I'd be happy talking to a receptionist in person - discouraged as it might be these days - or booking online... but I'm reluctant to call a poor phone-drone tasked to handle these things, which is what I know I'll generally get if I try to do it telephonically. I can see the problem with my logic and reasoning, but that's me for ya...))
[1] I haven't been to the doctor's for best part of a decade (and that was for an injury the receptionist thought I better go to A&E for; the time before was in the '00s.), I'm not actually sure if I'm prominant enough on their radar...
[2] I'll walk there and back, make it an afternoon out...
[3] For the only fixed event that happens (if it happens) this year, for which I'd be upset if participation depends upon/tends towards safely-certified participants. A lot of water yet to flow under that bridge, but it's something to aspire towards.
Post by: martinuzz on April 15, 2021, 12:27:31 pm
This does ofcourse mean that I will never get vaccinated. By the time I can apply for it, they have to start anew with vaccinating the health care workers, high risk groups and elderly first.
Post by: Vector on April 15, 2021, 01:05:19 pm
Post by: nenjin on April 15, 2021, 01:15:17 pm
Post by: Vector on April 15, 2021, 01:20:21 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 15, 2021, 01:23:18 pm
Both of those failings would be very bad, if they were true for covid. Unfortunately, the six months figure does line up quite well with previous reports of double infections with covid and with the antibody dropoff figures we have.
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2021, 01:31:30 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on April 15, 2021, 02:16:42 pm
Presented as 'great news!'...to shareholders
Post by: martinuzz on April 20, 2021, 04:10:03 am
Post by: Starver on April 20, 2021, 08:24:42 am
Spoiler: Who's now got their first AZ/Oxford shot and two thumbs? (click to show/hide)
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2021, 09:16:00 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 20, 2021, 09:57:08 am
Post by: scriver on April 20, 2021, 10:15:43 am
Post by: Vector on April 20, 2021, 04:46:22 pm
The producers of the Russian Sputnik vaccin are advertising their product illegaly in the Netherlands on Twitter.
Initially read this as "Tinder" and had a little chuckle
Post by: None on April 20, 2021, 05:32:29 pm
My vaccine's at recommended full efficacy tomorrow- I'm still not exactly sure how to comfortably exercise this liberty, even though I've got a pretty good idea for how to do it safely.
Post by: Starver on April 21, 2021, 10:01:39 am
Perhaps by eight hours after I received it I'd only felt a crick in the neck (could have been just twisting my head between monitors I was working on, in isolation, but of course I was primed to notice it). By 12 hours after, though, I could feel a 'heavy cold' coming on in all my joints (nothing respiratory, which makes sense if it was intramuscular infection, not breathed in) and it was a super-rapid onset of fluish reactions that I'm not used to.
Overnight I 'nested' in my duvet, in bed, done up a lot like a mummy, and it felt like I had a temperature - but that could just have been how I wrapped myself up. This morning I had less pronounced aches (pronounced /eɪks/!) but the injection site was now notably sore and for a few hours I was not inclined to rush around the house to get done things that needed doing, like having a hangover.
The injection site is still sore, my head is still a little bit mergh (but far better than it was) and I may still have a slight temperature (I don't have any objective way to measure this, just putting my hand to my forehead). I'm consoling myself that ultimately it's doing me good, but dissapointed it couldn't have done it with less of the sudden onset of symptoms. The luck of the draw, though.
Post by: nenjin on April 21, 2021, 11:26:57 am
But man I am not looking forward to shot #2. I have a feeling it's going to be a doozy for me.
Post by: wierd on April 21, 2021, 04:47:38 pm
Be prepared.
Post by: Svarte Troner on April 22, 2021, 12:37:54 am
Post by: nenjin on April 22, 2021, 01:27:41 pm
Wonder if I can reschedule shot #2 to a Friday....
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 22, 2021, 01:52:21 pm
Really frequent reactions too, unlikely that everyone involved had covid.
Post by: None on April 22, 2021, 04:32:42 pm
You prolly owe yourself a little self-care following the vaccine if you can afford the time.
Post by: Starver on April 22, 2021, 08:54:15 pm
I never asked for an antigen test (i.e. "am I currently infected") because it was never a topical issue. Even when the lateral-flow things started to be for 'anyone who wanted one' rather than in the prior (increasingly expanded) ring-fence of greatest need vs. supply. I would have considered an antibody test ("have I previously been infected") if offered, just to get a reasonable (within accuracy limitations) idea of if I might have been exposed.
Too late to do the latter now, probably, except to validate the vaccination. Possibly with the right kind of sensitivity/discernment it could pick out a slightly different spike-detection from the one I'm innoculated against, but that's not going to be a "two blue lines" test.
Right now, then, I'm choosing to believe the 'hit' I got was just from dealing with the sudden ChAdOx1 intrusion, not an unknowing prior familiarity with the added nCoV-19 'spikes'. We'll have to see what happens in July when my body, definitely primed by then, gets another bash at another dose flushed into it. (Assuming I don't get recruited to trial dissimilar-jabs, though that's not likely.)
And "what I feel like" isn't necessarily "how well my body deals with it". It might well be the inverse, in fact.
(https://xkcd.com/2443/)
BTW: The delayed-sore arm is still very sore, but I've lost (or gotten used to?) almost all the flu-like aches and temperature issues.
Post by: Bumber on April 22, 2021, 11:04:10 pm
Probably not. I almost certainly did not have covid yet strongly reacted. And tbh I've not heard that touted as a theory.
I've only heard it with respect to the blood clotting reaction.
Post by: martinuzz on April 25, 2021, 02:55:04 pm
My country finally decided to block air traffic from India.
Indian families are desperatly travelling from hospital to hospital with their sick family members, in the hopes of finding one that still has spare oxygen. Often in vain. Many people die outside the hospitals' entrances.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 25, 2021, 11:48:54 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 26, 2021, 07:28:46 am
Post by: scriver on April 26, 2021, 08:42:19 am
Post by: TamerVirus on April 26, 2021, 11:16:41 am
Post by: Bumber on April 26, 2021, 12:18:07 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 26, 2021, 12:45:00 pm
Post by: dragdeler on April 26, 2021, 12:59:18 pm
Post by: Iduno on April 26, 2021, 07:54:49 pm
The new variant in India appears to be extremely virulent. Today saw another 350K new infections, and nearly 3000 deaths. The EU countries and the US are all sending emergency aid to India, including rescources to produce vaccins.
Some good news! I expected we'd hold out even longer on that.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 28, 2021, 07:01:40 pm
The new variant in India appears to be extremely virulent. Today saw another 350K new infections, and nearly 3000 deaths. The EU countries and the US are all sending emergency aid to India, including rescources to produce vaccins.
Some good news! I expected we'd hold out even longer on that.
Well, maybe this time they realized it'd be coming home if not stopped...
Post by: scriver on April 29, 2021, 01:51:33 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 30, 2021, 06:03:10 am
However, they are only very mildly ill, so that's something.
Post by: Frumple on April 30, 2021, 06:31:42 am
Post by: Iduno on April 30, 2021, 07:29:00 am
Big anti-mask anti-vax Fauci supporters. "He said we shouldn't wear masks, so I'll never wear one." and "we only need a small percentage of people to get vaccinated for herd immunity." Plus, our numbers have gone down now that you can't find anywhere to get tested.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 30, 2021, 10:51:57 am
From what I understand that's, like... the major goal of the vaccine. It's less about outright immunity and more about making it stop killing people (and making them less virulent). Them being only mildly ill is exactly the point of the vaccination, heh.
No, immunity is the goal, because it stops spread. The less severe illness for people who get it anyway is a happy side effect.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 30, 2021, 12:07:56 pm
Post by: Vector on April 30, 2021, 12:13:15 pm
Big anti-mask anti-vax Fauci supporters. "He said we shouldn't wear masks, so I'll never wear one." and "we only need a small percentage of people to get vaccinated for herd immunity." Plus, our numbers have gone down now that you can't find anywhere to get tested.
Good lord. I'm sorry for sniping at you in the WTF thread. I hadn't known there were anti-mask anti-vax Fauci people, that just seems wild.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on May 01, 2021, 11:54:51 am
Post by: MrRoboto75 on May 01, 2021, 11:56:46 am
So what is up with this Fauci guy anyway? People post random conflicting bullshit about him on a daily basis, what's his actual deal?
I believe he was awarded "Shittiest job to have 2020"
Post by: None on May 01, 2021, 01:12:56 pm
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 01, 2021, 02:30:46 pm
For example, he was deeply embroiled with the government intentionally letting AIDS kill as many people as possible in the 80s. While his personal control over that decision was limited and it's disputed how much he should be blamed, he was part of the whole thing at the end of the day.
Post by: Scoops Novel on May 01, 2021, 04:03:45 pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/hiv-covid-19-dr-fauci-his-complicated-relationship-larry-kramer-n1241684
Post by: martinuzz on May 01, 2021, 07:18:02 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 02, 2021, 02:02:31 pm
However, outside the stadium, many thousands of fans had gathered to drink and cheer during the match, closely packed together.
Let's hope our already overcrowded hospitals don't see a surge of sports idiots with corona next week.
Kids, don't do sports. It's bad for public health. Smoking is safer.
EDIT: Amsterdam city authorities estimate the number of fans crowding the stadium at around 12000. Authorities decided to not let the police intervene, not wanting to escalate such huge numbers of drunk hooligans into rioting.
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 02, 2021, 05:25:03 pm
Post by: Akura on May 02, 2021, 06:40:00 pm
Got jabber #1 today soon after my eligibility. Surprised to find out that only about half of America has gotten at least one dose and that only about one third have gotten both...
Ayup. And my mom seems to think that's enough to declare "pandemic over". ::)
Planning on going to the pharmacy tomorrow to schedule my vaccination. Would have done this sooner, except I wasn't aware the availability of the vaccine had become... well, available in a pharmacy yet.
Oh, and apparently they've allowed churches in my area to reopen for in-person services, marked by crowds of people at busy street corners shoulting "Jesus loves you!". Had I not already passed them before realizing what was going on, I would have been tempted to shout back "Hail, Satan!" just to see the response.
Post by: McTraveller on May 02, 2021, 07:53:28 pm
The logistics of getting half the country to one dose, and 30% of the country to two doses, is pretty impressive though. Seriously, given that there are so many people who are hesitant, and about 60 million people (close to 20% of the total population) are under 16 so aren't yet eligible, I'd say the US is doing surprisingly well with vaccination efforts given our current culture.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on May 02, 2021, 08:11:11 pm
Post by: Vector on May 02, 2021, 08:12:09 pm
I worry about the accumulating apathy though. There's rumors and also announcements (in pfizer's case) of needing booster shots, and I have serious doubts you can motivate people to get them.
I will gladly get mine. This year has all but killed me.
Post by: Frumple on May 02, 2021, 08:31:38 pm
I worry about the accumulating apathy though. There's rumors and also announcements (in pfizer's case) of needing booster shots, and I have serious doubts you can motivate people to get them.Flu shot does... alright. Ish. But it'd basically be that, and what folks have been saying is a likely results for the plague anyway, it ending up a seasonal flu. Folks motivated for booster type junk well enough prior to the whole ~lived through a global scale plague~ thing.
Post by: Bumber on May 03, 2021, 12:02:00 am
Fauci is what kept you guys alive during the Trump idiocracy
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jul/14/context-trump-criticizes-look-back-faucis-early-co/
I think we're alive in spite of him, TBH. There were other doctors on TV giving better advice from the beginning. Issue was knowing which ones to listen to.
Post by: Starver on May 03, 2021, 06:07:16 am
Have you been reading a different article to the one you linked there?Fauci is what kept you guys alive during the Trump idiocracy
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jul/14/context-trump-criticizes-look-back-faucis-early-co/
I think we're alive in spite of him, TBH. There were other doctors on TV giving better advice from the beginning. Issue was knowing which ones to listen to.
Post by: Akura on May 03, 2021, 09:54:47 am
Post by: Bumber on May 03, 2021, 03:49:32 pm
Have you been reading a different article to the one you linked there?
Have you?
Restricting travel "not a good idea at this time" -> "We've done really quite well", credits early travel restriction on China.
Mask use by the general public has little value in preventing COVID -> masks prevent you from touching your face -> mask protection better than no mask -> in US, "absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask" -> really meant to prioritize people who need them.
"An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers" -> people shed virus and spread it before they actually feel sick -> large fraction of people infected remain asymptomatic and can transmit even without symptoms.
Post by: Starver on May 03, 2021, 07:58:14 pm
It's your strongest point, as I nearly said, but still lags behind a far bigger contender for "I think we're alive in spite of [him]".
The mask statements were all far more sensible (at any given time) than many other sources, especially You-Know-Who.
The statements about transmission, ditto.
Think of the two widely-spread tramlines bounding opinions over time. There were, are and doubtless will continue to be the Chicken-Littles who have long espoused total sky-falling-in scenarios, even if they never knew it would be Covid until Covid happened and they struck lucky with something real to rail about when before it was whatever the last Hollywood disaster movie was about (and, incidentally, they're no longer apparently worried about environmental degradation, WW3, unobserved near-Earth-objects, whatever else they were previously siezing upon). Ditto, those that are the living embodiment of that dog with a mug in the increasingly burning room that are holding to the "This is fine" line.
Between the two, those who will to some extent significantly change their minds when new information becomes known to them. What is the problem with Fauci having done that? Did he not do it enough? Did he do it do it too much? I'm not even sure what your complaint is. But given he had the burden of a dead-weight hovering over him, I'm surprised he managed to properly adapt as quickly as he did without being fired/’asked'-to-resign, with probably disasterous results to further attempts to nudge the official line into a (more) useful parity with reality.
If he held back the idea of a travel ban, it was at a time when not only was the picture far from complete (even with expert advanced briefings, not available to the public, he couldn't yet employ the full "2020 hindsight" we have now), and the actual TB trumpeted but vastly misrepresented wasn't even effective. Even if it stopped 100% of trans-Pacific travel (it did nothing of the sort) and had totally sealed off the southern border (it didn't, even if that was a pre-pandemic aim anyway) and shrugged off the possibility of cautiously but humanitarianly disembarking cruise-ships into quarantine accomodation (rather than letting them sit offshore longer, allowing any extant infections to reach more of the previously untouched) it had probably zero effect upon the European vectoring-inwards that eventually made it too late to stop even with a full-globe 'only the most essential* of travel' allowance. It's an open secret that places International travellers were likely to most immediately arrive at/return to were highly correlated with blue-voting, so not a priority to someone who wanted the red-voting fly-overs/boondocks/etc to have the edge.
And yet Fauci is to blame? I mean, there were precious few places (and therefore people in charge) who hit the proper tone right at the very start. Including making sure that a public not yet significantly exposed was not causing supply problems to prevent front-line medical staff to obtain enough self-protecting masks (before manufacturing geared up to increase the supply of the other-protecting masks which were to become more useful in the wider population). I'd forgive his privately wishing that everyone would wear masks right at the start but decided not to press it because it would be unachievable (both physically, politically and societally) and tried to concentrate on more doable precautions/more necessary mask-candidates.
Above all, though, I think you read that article and understood it to be a condemnation of Fauci. When I read it as a condemnation of how he was briefed against. Alleged errors, being raised by the Whitehouse. Criticism of how little information he could give when there was little information to give. The highlighting of his more non-alarming words in preference to the realistic concerns he also raised but were conveniently ignored. (To paraphrase a stretch of two or three paragraphs that you must not have read/understood, perhaps sticking only to your limited interpretation of the bullet-points.)
Yes, I read the article that you posted. I re-read it before I replied, twisting my mind to read it 'your' way and still doubting you could have honestly read it as you propose. I read it yet again just now, just in case it's a trick page with a Randomised Markov Chain behind it, but the words are the same and my impression of its meaning continues to be that it is a fact-check of how Fauci's views have been falsely represented, not of how Fauci's words were in themselves false.
(Incomplete, especially early on; Uncertain, when there was less information; Hedged and possibly too timid, at times when faced with sharing the stage with the President Who Could Not Tell A Coherent Truth; Nothing that seems notably worsened what would have happened, had Clarence been showing him his 'George Bailey' alternative.)
And that I felt the need to explain this, at length, is as annoying to me as it probably is to you (but for different reasons, also different still to the annoyance of all the other readers who don't want this to be an annexed thread to the AmeriPol one).
* Anyone rich enough, anyone with business interests, enough sports team movements to keep people entertained, quite a few reporters could apparently travel in and out of the US, and just had to follow honour-system quarantining procedures, at various times, according to the sometimes nuanced Source-Destination country matrix of requirements currently in for e.
Post by: Bumber on May 04, 2021, 10:36:27 pm
You'd have a better reason to address the 'travel ban' if it weren't a leaky sieve of a presidential policy that was just a (selective) gotcha against the Asian world (by US definition) to add to prior and unrelated spurious travel bans pre-pandemic (ironically, including bits of the Asian world by UK definition).
Biden admin is doing it to India now (over variant,) so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Post by: Starver on May 05, 2021, 05:05:25 am
Except that the China (or at one point "having set foot in Hubei in the last fortnight") 'ban' was so easy to circumvent in its original form. Ok, compassion to US citizens returning from the hotspot... fairly standard repatriation allowance, even if it was a little short on precautionary quarantining measures. Permanent residents get a by, too, but then that's starting to look like "you're rich, and that means you get to choose which of your varuous habitual territories you get to repatriate to". Being allowed to drag 'immediate family' around, willy-nilly, under the ægis of wealth-based 'immunity' and it just adds to the look of being more sanctions-based, arising from the ongoing political spats, than from any realistic health-protection motives.
The optics were further sullied by the next measure being directed at Iran, suspiciously specifically. Yes, they had a problem building there, but so had (say) Italy yet it was a later phase of restrictions[3] that encompassed the previously liberal travel from Italy. Even when the block was put against Italy, it was only as part of Schengen ("foreign nationals that have set foot in...", with the handy big loopholes as already discussed), though whether the initial delay in adding Anglo/Irish footfall to the mix was a sop to keeping diplomatic boons to the Anglosphere and the marginally-less-hostile-to-Trump-as-an-individual travellers/returnees (slightly more red-votes in it for him) or truly incidence-based is probably undebatable without any additional evidence either way. 'Interestingly', I can't find any obvious record of blocking Russian movements (their famous hard-nosed secrecy still acknowledged early cases derived straight from China, later from Italy, and between that actually did rescue Russian nationals from cruise-ships, properly hospitalising several who had seemingly succumbed at sea) almost as if political quid-pro-quos were still actively being curried with Vlad, slightly more so even than with Boris - but that is of course verging upon speculation.
After March (and continuing on through today) the saturation was such that only the truly lucky/proactive countries (and the downright deniers with a penchent for creative secrecy) could be said to be free/effectively-free of internal infections and community spreading where procedures (or obeyance of procedures) were insufficient. Returnees (probably far more than ill-timed (and unknowingly ill!) tourists, migrants, etc) had already laid down the starting points of internal infection-webs and there was no longer anything 'special' and revolutionary about travel-bans. Arguments over their degree of responsiveness continue, of course. Each country having its own "red-/green-list" dynamically readjusting to events and, give or take the obvious lag involved/amber-list intermediacy of alert, can now be attuned to 'variant' protection - or at least the rise of toponymic variations beyond their 'original' territory can be used to understand where such measures are failing and/or which places might have been economical with the healthcare procedures, record-keeping or ability to convince their population to adapt to circumstances.
Honestly, it was so obvious that India would be affected (once the "hot weather stops it dead" story was quashed, leaving the high population densities as a clear 'winner') that it's probably surprising that Biden took this long to specifically address this (though not that Trump wouldn't put pressure over Modi, even at the tail end of his tenure) given what surely must have been at least made known through the Presidential Briefings even before anything was official/public-domain.
As with the UK, I actually think the US has been tardy in bolstering India's health response (and that of other places comparable in need but not quite as front-page) though the airline "put your own mask on first" principle and the internal creation of the State Of Denial as India's 31st province, alongside Gujarat, Delhi and various Pradeshes, have not been useful. Still, relying on the Serum Institute of Pune exporting towards the Western world (or elsewhere non-Indian to relieve the Western manufacturies from too much non-Western distribution to bolster much needed local availabilities) then discovering that it cannot keep up with the need (especially the sudden knee-jerk one, fostered by prior complacency) seems a bit off. Ironically, it's probably the various self-affirmed anti-globalist camps who were more complicit with this arguably globalism-driven mismatch of need!
Sorry, more ramble. Probably a few things in there that are long-hanging fruit to respond over. Not that I think I'm too wrong WRT the core of the last few prior messages, just where I've gone beyond into peripheral issues and extended metaphors.
[1] Basically all halfway sensible[2] countries are travel-banning against all other currently relevent hotspots, right now and have been doing so, on and off, for much of the last year... Or have more like they've been closing their stable doors very slightly/significantly after the strange infected horses have already wandered in from outside, in far too many moments of suboptimal success.
[2] Or, more accurately, just under half of territories are currently enacting one or other of: a) global travel-bans, or effectively so; b) something including something more specific like "all air-travel"-bans with/without additional subtleties for other border-crossings; c) targetted bans against current countries/regions of concern, to some sufficiently sievey degree that doesn't still give carte-blanche to whole swathes of passport-holders. Of the rest, some are 'back' to their usual over-restrictive borders which works out well as a stopped-clock being currently right and others are using recent-negative-tests and/or compulsary quarantine periods (with/without locally negative tests as landmarks to de-quarantine). It's a hotch-potch of measures that I'm not sure any country can say is exactly right enough about without straying into over-/under-cautiousness to maintaining their respective effective-normality or protectiveness... Often both being wrong simultaneously.
[3] By that time part of the building "half the planet locking down against half-to-all the rest of the planet" response, so not much credit can be given at this point in the procedings, it having been blatantly obvious the 'new normal', and overtaken any possible claims to "prescient hypervigilence".
Post by: None on May 05, 2021, 08:23:56 am
Post by: delphonso on May 06, 2021, 03:11:21 am
I still can't get a vaccine. My city in China is months behind literally every city around it. Shenzhen has already started to doll out vaccines to the villages (the usually most neglected populations).
Also most people here don't seem to care either way, though, as the virus is under control basically everywhere.
Post by: McTraveller on May 06, 2021, 08:36:10 am
To be fair, I have heard at least one other person in my circle that had basically no effect from the 2nd Pfizer shot. Most others had 1-3 days of feeling awful.
Post by: Doomblade187 on May 06, 2021, 10:35:23 am
My second shot was essentially nothing... so far my arm hasn't even been sore, and it's been 4 days. Did I get a placebo? Is my daily vitamin D regimen a contributing factor? Do I have an extraordinarily good or bad immune system?It happens, seems to be a very personalized experience so to speak. I know people who had a lot of symptoms and some with none.
To be fair, I have heard at least one other person in my circle that had basically no effect from the 2nd Pfizer shot. Most others had 1-3 days of feeling awful.
Post by: Frumple on May 06, 2021, 01:03:16 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 10, 2021, 01:47:12 pm
The lowest willingness to be vaccinated is in Europe, with an average of 53%, albeit there are huge differences between eastern and western Europe. In the Balkan countries, the willingness is lowest in the whole world, at a mere 35%.
Northern America also scores pretty low, with 59%.
In Asia, most of the population show willingness to be vaccinated, at 76%.
Virologist estimate that for vaccination to provide effective group immunity, 70-90% of the world needs to be vaccinated, so those low numbers are a real problem.
I guess, to save us from corona, we should start bombing Serbia and Bosnia again, for starters. Perhaps a few Trumpist states as well. I'm sure we can get the UN to label it as a 'humanitarian mission'.
Post by: Vector on May 10, 2021, 04:17:28 pm
Post by: Frumple on May 10, 2021, 05:33:11 pm
Post by: Vector on May 10, 2021, 05:41:20 pm
Post by: Sirus on May 10, 2021, 05:48:45 pm
I honestly expect covid to become another endemic seasonal illness that we'll need regular updated vaccines against, much like influenza.
Post by: Frumple on May 10, 2021, 05:52:15 pm
Definitely sucks, though, yup.
Post by: nenjin on May 10, 2021, 05:59:23 pm
Post by: None on May 10, 2021, 06:47:16 pm
Don't get fatalistic. Get mad. I'll let that anger keep me warm at night to keep hope alive. Remember who continues to downplay it while friends and relatives put each other in caskets.
Post by: Jopax on May 11, 2021, 08:31:02 am
A study by the US research company Gallup shows that based on the 117 countries surveyed, only 68% of the world's adult population is willing to be vaccinated, if the vaccin is free, that is.
The lowest willingness to be vaccinated is in Europe, with an average of 53%, albeit there are huge differences between eastern and western Europe. In the Balkan countries, the willingness is lowest in the whole world, at a mere 35%.
Northern America also scores pretty low, with 59%.
In Asia, most of the population show willingness to be vaccinated, at 76%.
Virologist estimate that for vaccination to provide effective group immunity, 70-90% of the world needs to be vaccinated, so those low numbers are a real problem.
I guess, to save us from corona, we should start bombing Serbia and Bosnia again, for starters. Perhaps a few Trumpist states as well. I'm sure we can get the UN to label it as a 'humanitarian mission'.
I feel compelled to defend the region somewhat. It's not all antivaxxer idiots (although there is a certain amount of those present), more a combination of several factors. There are two that I think are the biggest ones at least for my neck of the woods.
First off, is that we've had it fairly good here and are doing pretty ok right now in terms of deaths and hospitalizations (we're down to double digits of folks in hospital beds) so people aren't taking it as seriously as they probably should [combined with a ton of folks catching the plague and reporting that it's bad but not as much as everyone has been saying it is (at least those who lived)].
Second is the complete and utter lack of trust in the governing bodies to not fuck it up due to greed and incompetence, as we have a very very long history of both fucking with the common folk and them just having to deal with it. We've already had several scandals involving both overpaying for apparently shitty respirators that may or may not kill people and massive corruption when it comes to the selection process for the companies that would be allowed to import and handle the vaccines, combine that with the ongoing reporting on the failings of various vaccines around the world and you can pretty easily see how someone can figure they're safer not getting it because chances are it'll be fucked in one way or another.
But I do agree in principle, bomb the Balkans, it's generally better that way for everyone involved :V
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2021, 10:14:48 am
Scientists from Amsterdam have solved the riddle that baffles doctors worldwide: What is it that makes the situation of many corona patients suddenly worsen so horribly that they need hospitalization, and ICU, even while the virus count in their body is already decreasing.
It's divergent antibodies.
The research, whcih has been ongoing for a year, has shown that those patients who suddenly worsen start making antibodies with a divergent shape, which in turn triggers a cascade of immune cells going haywire in the lungs, resulting in an extreme inflammatory response that punctures the blood vessels in the lungs, filling them with fluid and proteins, and clotting the punctured vessels with blood platelets.
They also found a promising (existing) medication, cooperating with a US pharma company, that is now being tested in 40 foreign hospitals. (fostamatinib)
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04629703?term=fostamatinib&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2
If it is as effective as preliminary results show (https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/rigel-fostamatinib-primary-endpoint/), this will really reduce the number of people that need hospitalization from Covid, and maybe even reduce Covid from 'global pandemic panic everybody hide' to 'take this pill, you'll be fine'.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/amsterdamse-wetenschappers-kraken-coronamysterie-waarom-de-ene-patient-zieker-wordt-dan-de-ander~b06e2d01/
https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/05/10/scitranslmed.abf8654
So yeah, very hopeful news.
The expected costs of the medication are between 13 thousand and 20 thousand euros per patient, but that could very well drop if the medication goes from 'used to treat a rare auto-immune disorder' to 'the whole world needs this'
Post by: dragdeler on May 11, 2021, 10:57:06 am
Post by: McTraveller on May 11, 2021, 11:12:27 am
In anti-vax conversation: I'm amazed / puzzled by the cognitive dissonance that I experience even in some of my extended family. A conversation basically went like this: "Why do we have to wear masks? Our relative worked at a place where they are lax about masks, he got COVID and is in the hopstial on a vent dying, why did they wait so long to treat him? But I don't want one of the current vaccinations, my doctor isn't getting them and is waiting for the one that will be released soon, because nobody knows what the long term effects of the RNA stuff is. Oh and I don't know why they are freaking out anyway, hardly anyone is dying from this. Why do they think it's so bad"?
??? >:(
Post by: dragdeler on May 11, 2021, 11:28:00 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2021, 12:09:17 pm
I have no issues picturing a world where all efforts on vaccination are dropped once there is a remedy, letting a flue like virus roam wild to get 13-20k per infection. First they will mock your mask then they will send you a bill?
Human insistence on acting retarded is very prevalent.
I can imagine though that if this medicine really works to prevent Covid patients from needing ICUs, that it won't take long for either the prices to drop, or the entire world to declare war on the US if the company doesn't drop the patent rights.
EDIT: excuse my agression, but charging that kind of money for a cure to end a world pandemic (or at least temperate it's effect significantly) is a crime against humanity on a near-Hitler level (genocide of the poor), and I would not be against violence to end that.
EDIT: removed rant, got carried away
Post by: dragdeler on May 11, 2021, 12:28:42 pm
Post by: Vector on May 11, 2021, 01:42:05 pm
EDIT: excuse my agression, but charging that kind of money for a cure to end a world pandemic (or at least temperate it's effect significantly) is a crime against humanity on a near-Hitler level (genocide of the poor), and I would not be against violence to end that.
Not as upfront and personal as most things we call genocide, but yes, I hate to say that I agree.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 11, 2021, 02:27:13 pm
biosimilar products suggests nowhere near as much as the average joe expects), opens a huge legal can of worms (certainity), might or might not deincentivize R&D in the future (maybe, maybe not, depending on how well or how badly its handled, and what mechanisms are put in place). It´s certainly not something that can be simply sorted with a decree.
If any of the sort is attempted it should be with a clear plan about who exactly is going to exploit the revamped IP laws to produce more vaccines, and how the complex legal and political can of worms that is opened will be handled. I dont get the feeling any such plan is in place.
Post by: dragdeler on May 11, 2021, 02:35:13 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2021, 02:47:41 pm
This would not matter that much for most of the current vaccin prices, because current vaccin producing pharma companies are actually trying to keep their prices somewhat-reasonable, but it would matter a whole lot for the prices of this new cure we were discussing. Most of it's 12k-30k per pop price is because it's still a new and patented medicine (which has not been developed for covid but for a rare auto-immune disease). It's a simple-to-produce oral pill that doesn't need ice cold storage or special transport
Post by: None on May 11, 2021, 02:53:56 pm
And, I guess, just to clarify my understanding- the vaccine's been so effective because it ensures we make normal antibodies, yes?
Post by: McTraveller on May 11, 2021, 02:57:12 pm
Why should a few pharma companies benefit from the few "big wins" in medicine, instead of all of society?
(Yes, yes, socialism rants, etc. etc.)
Post by: dragdeler on May 11, 2021, 02:58:43 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2021, 02:58:57 pm
The question I have, then, is this- what determines which people make the divergent antibodies that triggers the autoimmune reaction to ravage the lungs?Still unknown. So either the meds should be given as a precaution to everyone around the 9th day of infection, or at the first onset of rapid worsening
Quote
And, I guess, just to clarify my understanding- the vaccine's been so effective because it ensures we make normal antibodies, yes?Apparently, or luckily so. We don't see hospital ICUs filling up with the vaccinated. We might have dodged a bullet there though, since the deviating antibodies do target the spike protein that the vaccines use too.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 11, 2021, 03:10:36 pm
A good start would be to remove the patents component from the price calculation for the duration of the pandemic, and to distribute product fairly across the globe based on national population numbers (times vaccination willingness%/100 /s).It´s a pill alright. I don´t know where the "simple to produce" bit comes from.
This would not matter that much for most of the current vaccin prices, because current vaccin producing pharma companies are actually trying to keep their prices somewhat-reasonable, but it would matter a whole lot for the prices of this new cure we were discussing. Most of it's 12k-30k per pop price is because it's still a new and patented medicine (which has not been developed for covid but for a rare auto-immune disease). It's a simple-to-produce oral pill that doesn't need ice cold storage or special transport
For that matter, it kind of sets a bad precedence to deincentivize research on rare conditions, you know
Also, I wouldn´t for granted that it´s harmless. TKIs are supposedly "targeted" therapies but you scratch a bit of the surface and they have a surprisingly high number of off-target effects. Honestly, if this pans out it will probably be for severe cases that are in hospital, not for covid outpatients.
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2021, 03:15:13 pm
Post by: Frumple on May 13, 2021, 01:53:55 pm
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2021, 02:32:18 pm
I'm assuming it's because those bodies that decide to react that way to sudden infusions of something new (as, for the first dose, happened to me) is similarly differentiating the new newness of the dissimilar 2nd dose. But the article I read did not have any information to correlate against reported 1st-dose effects (which would seem to me to be an additional dimension of data to record) so I don't have any info to support or dismiss such a supposition.
It's still a number of weeks until my follow-up, but this time I'm going to be prepared for (but hope I don't have) the smaller chance of same+same dosing's muscle aches and fever. I really hadn't planned for it, the last time. Only later did I remember I had some home medication[1] that I'm usually so reluctant to use.
[1] Once the early 2020 'panic buying' had subsided, and the paticular supermarket shelving appeared in no danger of being subjected to shortages, only then did I speculatively pick up a pack of paracetomol 'just in case'. Then when I was regretting being blasé about the innoculator's trotted-out suggestion that I could always pop some painkillers if I needed to, I had completely forgotten this and assumed I was 'stranded' without any such recourse. I also, even later, found some old Lemsips (and I've still yet to check if they're out-of-date... they probably are).
Post by: None on May 13, 2021, 11:03:12 pm
It's gonna take me a lot to truly be at ease, especially since we don't know exactly how long the vaccine provides protection for, but this seems to me to be a pretty strong indication for its efficacy in preventing covid spread, too.
Post by: Vector on May 14, 2021, 12:30:28 am
I'm giving it at least a couple months before I believe it. 2/3 of our population isn't fully inoculated yet and I don't really believe that free mingling will save us from another goshdanged lockdown. As far as the disease curve goes, compare where we are now to the peak of the first wave ... I remember how I felt last year seeing the numbers go up and up and up ...
I do believe that the vaccine is effective, but I also am so desperate to have normal school that I'm willing to keep curve-flattening for a while.
Post by: None on May 14, 2021, 01:00:38 am
I mean, it IS the CDC, so they should know best, but I can't help but wonder if they know something we don't, like if there's a threshold for social damage that's met, or if there's an economic factor involved, or if this is a relaxing to curb isolation fatigue in case it twists again, or if it's really just that the vaccines are profoundly effective at curbing infection and propagation and we're really actually in the home stretch. I thought we were gonna be in the thick of it until 2022 or something.
What about needing boosters later, or if the virus mutates? Children aren't getting vaccinated yet- not to be that guy that goes 'think about the children,' but...?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 14, 2021, 01:20:18 am
I, don't really want to admit it, but I don't buy that for a second.Ditto here.
I'm giving it at least a couple months before I believe it. 2/3 of our population isn't fully inoculated yet and I don't really believe that free mingling will save us from another goshdanged lockdown. As far as the disease curve goes, compare where we are now to the peak of the first wave ... I remember how I felt last year seeing the numbers go up and up and up ...
I do believe that the vaccine is effective, but I also am so desperate to have normal school that I'm willing to keep curve-flattening for a while.
Like I said before, we got an internal memo at work. Advice is regardless of any official goverment or EU guidance on the subject, we keep masking up and social distancing, and we get a workplace quarantine enforced if we travel abroad (as in they cant force us to quarantine but we wont be let in for 2 weeks, and is out of our holidays).
I think its reasonable. The way this thing spreads I think the cautionary principle would suggest being very careful. If we keep being careful a few more weeks and nothing happens there is no great harm done. But if we all throw caution to the wind and we get something funny to happen either with vanilla covid or the variants, then we are in deep shit (and lets not forget that this happened back in March 2020. Pretty much all western disease control agencies downplayed the risk in February. And I believed them at the time, more fool I)
Post by: Frumple on May 14, 2021, 01:50:07 am
Most I plan on changing up is maybe getting some delayed non-vital doctor visits in (probably warranted eye check, some annoying but not dangerous dermatology stuff) and maybe finally get the damage to the car I'm driving from Michael fixed up.
Vaccine is pretty damn effective, sure, but it ain't 100% and you ain't supposed to fuck around with a goddamn plague, regardless as to if the CDC is saying you're okay to play silly buggers again.
Post by: Bumber on May 14, 2021, 03:44:29 am
Vaccine is pretty damn effective, sure, but it ain't 100% and you ain't supposed to fuck around with a goddamn plague, regardless as to if the CDC is saying you're okay to play silly buggers again.
Fatalities and hospitalizations are more important than COVID positive results, though.
If the risk of COVID death after vaccination is lower than death by car accident, then that's an acceptable return to normal, IMO.
Post by: Frumple on May 14, 2021, 07:12:33 am
Post by: Sirus on May 14, 2021, 07:20:19 am
Meanwhile my dad, who is fully vaccinated, seems like he can't wait to go maskless. I'm not sure what to say about that.
Post by: martinuzz on May 14, 2021, 07:44:31 am
As long as the hospitals aren't overflowing, we've got better treatments now that can cure even severe cases.Not really. Chance of dying when admitted to ICU is down a little bit, from 1 in 3, to 1 in 5 (in rich countries with excellent health care that is) but nowhere near something that can be called 'cure'.
Post by: Bumber on May 14, 2021, 09:11:06 am
As long as the hospitals aren't overflowing, we've got better treatments now that can cure even severe cases.Not really. Chance of dying when admitted to ICU is down a little bit, from 1 in 3, to 1 in 5 (in rich countries with excellent health care that is) but nowhere near something that can be called 'cure'.
Looks like I misused the word "cure" to mean "suppress the fatal symptoms of", and left out "would-be" in front of "severe cases". Didn't spend enough time proofreading.
We've got anti-body treatments for the virus, as well as drugs that can prevent the immune system from attacking the lungs, etc. If you reach the hospital after your lungs are already screwed, you're still likely to die.
Post by: martinuzz on May 14, 2021, 09:40:55 am
drugs that can prevent the immune system from attacking the lungsNo we don't. The medicine I mentioned is still in the trial phase in 150 or so hospitals in North- and South America. Initial results do look hopeful, but still too early to tell if it's going to be a game-changer.
Sure, there's general immunosuppresants, but those were used a few months into the pandemic already, and do relatively little to prevent ICU deaths.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 14, 2021, 09:50:37 am
Post by: Vector on May 14, 2021, 10:56:49 am
Post by: Iduno on May 14, 2021, 03:10:31 pm
I'm sure the trolls will be by claim that this never happens, and we're actually saving lives doing this.
Post by: nenjin on May 14, 2021, 03:35:26 pm
Post by: Frumple on May 14, 2021, 03:56:51 pm
Enough to be pretty miserable, basically, but not super miserable.
Post by: Iduno on May 14, 2021, 06:52:30 pm
Edit: It sounds like the new guidance on masks not being needed for vaccinated people (despite it being imperfect and also allows people to still be carriers) wasn't exactly based on science or best practices. (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/13/upshot/epidemiologists-coronavirus-masks.html)
Post by: None on May 15, 2021, 04:30:15 pm
Quote
Others acknowledged that policy decisions are based on many goals, such as invigorating the economy and incentivizing people to get vaccinated.
can't let a little thing like a global pandemic stop the free market of capitalism, 'essential' workers might start demanding a living wage or something
Post by: pisskop on May 15, 2021, 06:13:15 pm
I feel like people are very reticent to go about their lives without sucking down cloth.
Im waiting for the gyms to relax. I cant get a proper sweat on the treadmill without turning it into a waterboarding session.
Post by: nenjin on May 15, 2021, 06:48:02 pm
Post by: Duuvian on May 15, 2021, 11:58:55 pm
Not vaccine related: I had a very bad case of neck and shoulders stiffness and pain earlier some months ago, had to lay in bed for a few days before I could sit up due to neck pain (bathroom was only place I sat down for three days, agony in my neck to do so). Then I had to carry my arm above my shoulder for a few weeks afterwards or my shoulder ache'd progressively worse whereas if it began to ache it progressively lessened with my arm in place above/behind my head. Not sure if I had covid at some point, I was pretty careful when I did go out, but maybe, since I was handling out of state/country produce shipments for my job in the months before the stiffness; if I did it would have been months before the stiffness I think unless I was completely asymptomatic except for stiffness.
Initially it started in my (non throwing) shoulder, but the next day I woke up and my neck couldn't support my head's weight without a lot of pain. I thought I had just slept on it wrong, but it persisted for longer than one would think for that. After my neck was getting better, it was my shoulders, though it was worse in my non-throwing arm and that is the arm I had to fold over/behind my head for a few weeks until not doing so did not cause a progressively worsening ache. The arm was fully useable, though I appeared to lose a deal of muscle from it, because I had a spaghetti arm by the time my shoulder was better. It was quite odd, never had that happen before.
On the bright side, it seems to be completely better now. Also another possible and maybe more likely reason for the injury was that I had been attempting handstand pushups for the first time in a while at some point close to the stiffness beginning, but I haven't had that problem before when I did those (generally when I don't have a fluffy big American belly like I do sometimes; I don't want to get slapped in the face during a handstand)
Post by: Stench Guzman on May 17, 2021, 04:01:21 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on May 17, 2021, 04:45:08 pm
Have you suffered permanent injury or death as a result of the coronavirus vaccine? If so you may be entitled toFTFYmonetary compensationNOTHING!.
Gotta love blanket immunity from liability (at least until 2024)
Post by: martinuzz on May 18, 2021, 02:07:08 pm
The 46-year old extreme right soldier disappeared after writing a letter in which he announces he will hunt and kill virologists.
He is armed with at least a p90 and a rocket launcher, which he stole from his military base, plus a bulletproof vest.
His threats were mostly pointed at Belgium's most renowned virologist Marc van Ranst. He, and his family have been taken into protective custody.
Post by: King Zultan on May 19, 2021, 12:44:07 am
Post by: Vector on May 19, 2021, 02:06:01 pm
holy shit
Where is Hideo Kojima when we need him???
Post by: martinuzz on May 19, 2021, 02:40:05 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 19, 2021, 05:09:02 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on May 19, 2021, 05:21:05 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 22, 2021, 10:29:58 am
Students don't need to keep 1.5m distance from each other. They do need to keep distance from their teachers and school staff. They also still need to wear facemasks.
Teachers are terrified. Most of them are not vaccinated yet.
I'm tempted to call the police and file charges against our government for attempted mass murder of teachers.
Post by: hector13 on May 22, 2021, 11:17:22 am
Do your schools do summer holidays for school pupils, and if so, how many weeks of schooling are left until then? 'cause it only makes sense to go back to school at this point if there aren't weeks/months of non-schooling happening in like, a month.
Post by: martinuzz on May 22, 2021, 11:30:20 am
We do have summer holidays. That's why they want to re-open, so that all highschool students will get at least a few weeks of normal lessons this school year (they haven't had any except online). I think summer holiday starts somewhere around the 10th of july, so they will at most get 5 weeks of school this year.
Post by: scriver on May 22, 2021, 12:13:18 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 22, 2021, 12:17:59 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 22, 2021, 02:55:15 pm
Je ne francais pasJe ne suis pa francais
Post by: MrRoboto75 on May 22, 2021, 02:59:06 pm
Post by: WealthyRadish on May 22, 2021, 03:10:03 pm
Je ne francais pasJe ne suis pa francais
Je ne suis plus (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_French_Empire) français
Post by: dragdeler on May 22, 2021, 03:27:04 pm
Post by: Starver on May 22, 2021, 03:34:24 pm
(tlhIngan Hol vIjatlhbe')
Post by: martinuzz on May 22, 2021, 06:00:45 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 23, 2021, 04:00:47 pm
Post by: Bumber on May 23, 2021, 07:43:31 pm
Post by: King Zultan on May 24, 2021, 01:17:04 am
Post by: Frumple on May 24, 2021, 06:42:08 am
Post by: Vector on May 26, 2021, 04:14:22 pm
sauce: saw it on the NYT.
Post by: Sirus on May 26, 2021, 04:43:04 pm
Post by: nenjin on May 26, 2021, 04:47:21 pm
They say that apparently there is signs that protection post-inoculation/infection could last for years since key anti-body generating cells remain in the marrow
sauce: saw it on the NYT.
So how does this jive with earlier statements that the protection afforded by the vaccines may only last 6 months? Or the people that got a covid reinfection after vaccination?
Frankly, I'm starting to lose trust with these kinds of statements. It's starting to feel like everyone wants that "Aha!" press conference about Corona findings.
Post by: Vector on May 26, 2021, 04:51:26 pm
Next, "vaccination lasts 6 months. We don't know what happens afterwards" is not incompatible with "it may be that the protection lasts for years."
I agree, there's lots of bullshit out there. Some major drama seems to be going down in the UK because the plan was apparently "just let COVID sweep the population." Folks could be trying to distract from that.
Post by: scriver on May 26, 2021, 04:54:15 pm
Fingers crossed. I just got my second jab of Moderna, and I'd be perfectly happy if it was also my last jab of the stuff.
The crystal lake, it only laughs
It knows you're just a modern man (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5DsI_eCK7Y)
They say that apparently there is signs that protection post-inoculation/infection could last for years since key anti-body generating cells remain in the marrow
sauce: saw it on the NYT.
So how does this jive with earlier statements that the protection afforded by the vaccines may only last 6 months? Or the people that got a covid reinfection after vaccination?
Frankly, I'm starting to lose trust with these kinds of statements. It's starting to feel like everyone wants that "Aha!" press conference about Corona findings.
Media is always too quick to report on indications rather than certainties
Post by: None on May 26, 2021, 07:05:57 pm
It might be okay to start feeling optimistic out here in the states the way our immunization and infection rate is going. I'd spitball that we'll probably see some kind of booster shots at some point anyways just to totally really make sure that the antibodies stick, but we might be golden if our protection is long term.
Post by: martinuzz on May 27, 2021, 03:29:32 pm
Facebook has also dropped it's policy of removing posts that claim that.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/biden-wil-toch-onderzoek-naar-chinees-coronalab-theorie~bd9ea381/
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/26/us/politics/biden-coronavirus-origins.html
Post by: None on May 27, 2021, 07:01:16 pm
Doesn't really sound like new investigation to me.
Post by: Lidku on May 27, 2021, 07:23:39 pm
I wonder if the reason for not accounting for or not taking the "leak theory" seriously, was maybe in part of self-interest from research institutions and governments around the world; taking knowledge that when or if it was proven the true cause of the SARS-COV-2 outbreak (and not the whole local market eatery theory), that there would be massive outcry to close these activities of unusual and unethical "gain-of-function" research.
Or maybe it was just suppressed not to cause panic, with them starting to take the leak theory avenue seriously, with things "gradually calming" down and vaccines rolling out.
Post by: hector13 on May 27, 2021, 07:54:08 pm
China aren’t going to let outside sources in to verify any of this either way, as they already stymied it, so this will change nothing.
Post by: Lidku on May 27, 2021, 08:27:40 pm
Though you're perfectly right about the second bit. China, predictably, has monkey-wrenched any true possibility at a clear and honest picture of this SAR-COV-2 origin. And even if outside sources confirm a definite origin of somesort, that shines a negative light toward China, they'll predictably as before avow and deny.
I'm also just disgusted at the bipartisan debacle of this whole thing as well. I despised Trump as much as the next guy, but the only reason why the media isn't pushing back at Biden, and now like CLOCKWORK picking up the "lab leak origin theory" as actually legitimate; is due in part for the sheer fact of Trump not being in office. I imagine if theoretically Trump didn't lose his tenure during the last Presidential election, and continued on to his next term, all talk of the "lab leak" avenue would've still been derided completely. But since he isn't in office, now its acceptable to rightfully bring up these questions.
Though don't think I'm accrediting Trump with any virtue at all in this. He was the major cause of the infighting under his Presidential tenure. If he was domestically more competent and not an idiot, I doubt there would've been so much push-back when he was first purporting (and some from his party as well saying as such) the possibility of a leak from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology or other such facilities.
I just wonder how this will all further develop. Oh, and this also strikes out the Republicans lil' "Beijing" Biden ring-arounds they said about him, since he's putting some heat on China with calls for investigations toward it.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 27, 2021, 08:51:06 pm
It is possible that the Wuhan lab was culturing and studying this natural virus for a number of reasons. Such research is extremely common. If this is the case, it is possible that there was a leak. As yet, there is no evidence to support it, and epidemiology of the pandemic is not consistent with a point source.
Biden isn't getting a lot of pushback because he is not using this as a cudgel or evasion. He is literally saying "well, you keep asking about this, so we will look into it."
Post by: wierd on May 27, 2021, 08:56:25 pm
Chinese researchers investigating bat colonies for SARS like viruses (since such viruses are mostly asymptomatic in bats, and thus have stable reservoir populations) in bat colonies, looking to better understand this relationship, and to help identify (and thus, better create protocols to prevent or treat outbreaks of future disease) novel forms of corona virus in those populations. Papers are written concerning this. (https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12985-015-0422-1)
They found a novel virus.
They sent the virus to the lab that specializes in corona viruses. (in this case, the afore mentioned Wuhan lab)
Most corona viruses are not this terrible. The common cold, for instance, is caused by numerous species of corona virus. (which is why there is no single cure.)
As such, the protocols of the lab were not correct for a virus of this degree of danger (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/), in hindsight.
Several workers there got sick, (https://www.livescience.com/covid-lab-leak-wuhan.html) but the illness was not well diagnosed. (protocols to identify covid did not yet exist.)
The lab itself, however, analyzed the virus, determined it produced novel spike protein that was highly effective at attaching to human cell membranes, and then wrote a paper about it.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7048180/
Note, that science does hot happen instantly. The paper was published in Feb, but lots of work on the protein had already been completed, suggesting strongly that the researchers (Some of the cites on the author section are workers for Wuhan virology) had access to the virus for analysis very early.
This timeline of events does not disqualify "Originated in bats.", nor does it disqualify "Escaped from a lab."
The snakeoil is likely "Created in a lab", which is the misinformation that needs to be stomped out.
An inflamatory paper was retracted, which tried to make that kind of assertion (https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/).
More useful questions would be:
Did any of the sick workers from Wuhan Virology visit the Wuhan open air market?
If so, was this before or after the proposed exposure event?
Did the hospital(s) that these patients visited later show numerous covid-consistent infections, consistent with an exposure interval at the time of the patient's stay?
LiveScience has reported several times that the Wuhan seafood open air market is likely not the initial epicenter of infection (http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-02/09/c_139733444.htm), since while the surfaces of the market were swabbed, and tested positive for residues of the virus, none of the animals from the market tested positive for the virus.
This suggests that the virus was brought to the market by already infected humans, and not the other way around.
Post by: Bumber on May 28, 2021, 05:01:06 pm
All known methods of altering a virus leave fairly distinct traces. None of these are present in the virus responsible for COVID-19.
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
Quote
True, some older methods of cutting and pasting viral genomes retain tell-tale signs of manipulation. But newer methods, called “no-see-um” or “seamless” approaches, leave no defining marks. Nor do other methods for manipulating viruses such as serial passage, the repeated transfer of viruses from one culture of cells to another. If a virus has been manipulated, whether with a seamless method or by serial passage, there is no way of knowing that this is the case.
Did any of the sick workers from Wuhan Virology visit the Wuhan open air market?
If so, was this before or after the proposed exposure event?
Workers were hospitalized at some point in November 2019. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-wuhan-lab-fuels-debate-on-covid-19-origin-11621796228)
Earliest confirmed case of COVID (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7378494/) is an old man who was hospitalized on December 1st, who had no tie to the wet market. More cases (41) began to pour in starting December 8th and peaked at December 29th. The first 4 cases to be officially confirmed (not necessarily the first 4 hospitalizations of that wave) were tied to the wet market.
So it's not even a question of if the workers visited the wet market, or came into contact with someone who later visited the market. Given the time table, it's further removed than that.
Post by: martinuzz on May 28, 2021, 05:05:22 pm
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/QuoteTrue, some older methods of cutting and pasting viral genomes retain tell-tale signs of manipulation. But newer methods, called “no-see-um” or “seamless” approaches, leave no defining marks. Nor do other methods for manipulating viruses such as serial passage, the repeated transfer of viruses from one culture of cells to another. If a virus has been manipulated, whether with a seamless method or by serial passage, there is no way of knowing that this is the case.
Indeed. Especially since CRISPR/cas9 genome editing, every lab can alter genomes without leaving a trace.
EDIT: hmm wait, I might be mistaken there. Not sure if CRISPR/cas9 works with viral RNA
Post by: Bumber on May 28, 2021, 05:20:41 pm
Indeed. Especially since CRISPR/cas9 genome editing, every lab can alter genomes without leaving a trace.
EDIT: hmm wait, I might be mistaken there. Not sure if CRISPR/cas9 works with viral RNA
Same article:
Quote
But RNA is difficult to manipulate, so researchers working on coronaviruses, which are RNA-based, will first convert the RNA genome to DNA. They manipulate the DNA version, whether by adding or altering genes, and then arrange for the manipulated DNA genome to be converted back into infectious RNA.
Edit: Moved this here since edits on previous post were getting large:
The snakeoil is likely "Created in a lab", which is the misinformation that needs to be stomped out.
If only the director of the lab, Shi Zhengli-li, weren't involved in exactly that kind of research in 2015:
Quote from: https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985
Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone.
There's another one published in 2017 (https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1006698), which seems to be one done at the WIV. Apparently, the 2017 study prompted diplomats and scientists to visit the WIV in 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/05/18/fact-checking-senator-paul-dr-fauci-flap-over-wuhan-lab-funding/) and warn about a lack of trained technicians and investigators.
Senator Rand Paul was grilling Fauci over this, claiming he approved gain-of-function research at the WIV (grant R01AI110964.) The NIH lifted the restriction on gain of function (https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/who-we-are/nih-director/statements/nih-lifts-funding-pause-gain-function-research) research at the end of 2017, and the grants continued to fund WIV research until 2020, when Trump pressured the NIH to cancel it. The question is if the WIV was modifying coronaviruses to be more transmissible up to the point of the outbreak. Kind of sounds like that's what's involved in testing the spike proteins' prediction of the infectiousness on human cells using "reverse genetics and infectious clone technology".
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 29, 2021, 06:49:32 am
Quote
Earliest confirmed case of COVID is an old man who was hospitalized on December 1st, who had no tie to the wet market. More cases (41) began to pour in starting December 8th and peaked at December 29th. The first 4 cases to be officially confirmed (not necessarily the first 4 hospitalizations of that wave) were tied to the wet market.
This is clearly untrue. They traced covid cases as far back as november in March 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report
Post by: martinuzz on May 29, 2021, 07:28:03 am
QuoteEarliest confirmed case of COVID is an old man who was hospitalized on December 1st, who had no tie to the wet market. More cases (41) began to pour in starting December 8th and peaked at December 29th. The first 4 cases to be officially confirmed (not necessarily the first 4 hospitalizations of that wave) were tied to the wet market.
This isclearlypossibly untrue. They traced covid cases as far back as november in March 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report
Fixed that for you. It is only untrue if 'media reports on unpublished Chinese government data' AND said Chinese government data are true.
Post by: Bumber on May 29, 2021, 03:03:36 pm
This is clearly untrue. They traced covid cases as far back as november in March 2020
That'd be even more reason the market's irrelevant. I don't have any data on when in November the lab workers were hospitalized, though, to compare to November 17th.
Post by: Bumber on May 30, 2021, 11:54:05 pm
Edit: Next day, still just sore arm. Looks like I've avoided getting the bad reaction.
Post by: martinuzz on May 31, 2021, 02:08:16 am
I'll try again later, the waiting row is longer than my phone's battery could handle.
Post by: feelotraveller on June 01, 2021, 12:49:42 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/covid-19-variants-to-be-given-greek-alphabet-names-to-avoid-stigma (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/covid-19-variants-to-be-given-greek-alphabet-names-to-avoid-stigma)
Post by: None on June 01, 2021, 01:00:12 pm
From the article, though, it'll be interesting to see if this is somehow utilized to suppress discussion of variants the way India has about its variant. I'd imagine doing a search for "covid india phi" would narrow your search down a lot further than "covid india variant" would. 'Course, it'd need a formal WHO variant assignment to get that anyways, so it'd be difficult to stop global recognition.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on June 01, 2021, 01:18:22 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on June 01, 2021, 01:25:19 pm
In more pointed comment can we imagine the 'pushback' if instead of just hosting a mutated version India (or Great Britain for that matter) were the site of origin of the disease. :P
Post by: TamerVirus on June 01, 2021, 01:44:03 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 02, 2021, 03:05:20 am
They asked me to try again next week.
Ofcourse I didn't wait a week, I called again today.
So, yay, june 11th I'll get my first shot, july 16th my second. Now I just need to find someone with a car willing to take me there, because it's nowhere near my city.
Post by: delphonso on June 03, 2021, 06:46:58 am
Post by: TamerVirus on June 03, 2021, 09:36:06 am
Post by: Starver on June 03, 2021, 09:41:56 am
Spoiler: obXKCD (click to show/hide)
Post by: Frumple on June 10, 2021, 10:07:01 am
e: yup, quarantine order came in earlier today. Don't leave home until next week+ tested or 2 weeks+no symptoms, whichever. Time to shelter in place for a while~
Post by: Starver on June 12, 2021, 02:55:08 am
As 'nobody' expected (except pretty much almost everyone not in denial), the English lockdown phase supposed to last only until June 21st might well continue for another month as the third wave/delta-strain[1] rumbles across the land. (The other nations were already being more cautious, though.)
For the most part, apart from "Wear masks, keep your distance", though, I personally have difficulty seeing any difference between what is happening right now with people (local people, at least[2]) and 'normality'. Parklands are full of people enjoying the sun, the supermarkets are being shopped at incessently. Walking home from the supermarket, yesterday, the roads I had to cross (before the parklands before the (thankfully quiet) woodlands leading to the shortcut path to my home) at traditional commuter-time looked pretty much as busy as they might have done prior to 2020's drive to stop people uneccessarily driving around.
I mean, I haven't had any great compulsion to see a film, so I've no idea whether that's even possible yet. I've had exactly one visit to a Subway in the last year (compared to at least once a week prior to early last year). An upcoming sporting event due at the end of June has already been postponed, to join another couple of such from (nominally) earlier this year, though other examples did go ahead with appropriate cautions; I'm most interested in whether another one (not in my area) ends up happening in July, but that's a bit later along - and I'll be doubly-vaccinated myself by then, plus sufficient buffer-time to attain full effectiveness.
Today, I'm walking about nine miles to visit my mutual-bubble and get some exercise in, both. With the exception of the last stretch, mostly off the tourist-trails, but I'll be passing a garden centre, and its carpark is sure to be full, based on every other such weekend since (at least) April. Any prior year, I'd have popped in at some point to look for a birthday present, but I'm not keen on joining that crowd (even if mostly more-senior-than-me and thus already greater proofed against catching/giving anything than myself). That's just me, though.
[1] I'm half expecting we'll get an actual Omega Strain at some point.
[2] I wouldn't know if visitors are being discouraged (hurting the local tourist-centric industries) or bolstered (by those who who have 'rediscovered' holidays that aren't abroad), or both of these in the worst possible combination.
Post by: Frumple on June 15, 2021, 07:12:25 pm
... not enough to completely nix worry 'cause I still remember the false negative rate being non-zero, but between that and vaccine and no symptoms, already fairly low worry is lower. Here's hoping the coworker survives, I guess...
Post by: Grim Portent on June 17, 2021, 09:30:49 am
Oh, and there was some prick with an American accent singing about governments not being trustworthy and COVID not being real down the street. Odd thing to see in Scotland.
Post by: nenjin on June 17, 2021, 10:38:20 am
Just got my first shot of Pfizer. Sitting and waiting to see if I’ll have any adverse reactions before I leave the vaccination site. Last person in the household to get, since everyone else either works for the SNHS or has co-morbidity stuff that bumped up their priority.
Oh, and there was some prick with an American accent singing about governments not being trustworthy and COVID not being real down the street. Odd thing to see in Scotland.
FWIW that prick is probably jobless, homeless and stuck there.
Post by: Starver on June 17, 2021, 01:02:01 pm
Just got my first shot of Pfizer. Sitting and waiting to see if I’ll have any adverse reactions before I leave the vaccination site.For me (AZ/Oxford) I had no "sitting down and waiting" issues crop up. Actually, I left the jab centre with a spring in my step, stopped to sit in a doorway a little way down the road to
It was about six hours later - when I was home - that I started to feel suddenly in the worst (or certainly the most abrupt onset, with no gradual succumbing) fever that I remember ever having, as near as I can compare. Almost as if somebody injected a concentration of virus directly into me, or something!
Not that I think this is typical, and you're on a different thing, and all the other variables, so I'm not sure it'll mean much to your situation. In fact, it should make you feel better about getting away with the sore arm. ;)
Post by: Zangi on June 17, 2021, 02:47:18 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on June 17, 2021, 02:56:00 pm
Post by: nenjin on June 17, 2021, 04:01:29 pm
But you can't really predict how it's going to hit you.
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on June 17, 2021, 04:30:53 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on June 18, 2021, 08:56:08 am
Don't think I ever mentioned it here, but my brother recently got a job with the SNHS in a new internal COVID testing lab for one of the hospitals in one of our nearby cities. Mostly doing rapid testing on emergency admissions and existing patients who need moved around within the hospital, pretty low rate of positives from what he's said but I'm happy the hospital is taking things seriously when it comes to internal transfers.
Post by: scriver on June 18, 2021, 10:39:49 am
My first dose was a big nothing, but the second dose let me see beyond the veil of human ignorance and shatter the skies, by which I mean I slept about 3/4ths of the day.
Turns out the while covid thing was just Microsoft-guy's secret plot to turn us all into catgirls
Post by: Starver on June 18, 2021, 02:11:36 pm
Turns out the while covid thing was just Microsoft-guy's secret plot to turn us all into catgirls
The jokes on him... Watashi wa neko desu, nyo!
Post by: Bumber on June 19, 2021, 02:22:59 pm
Turns out the while covid thing was just Microsoft-guy's secret plot to turn us all into catgirls
The jokes on him... Watashi wa neko desu, nyo!
Then you get turned into a girlcat.
Post by: LordBaal on June 26, 2021, 10:16:01 am
There seems to be a near chance for us to get the russian vaccine. I hope we can get it before they start rolling the cuban "vaccine" which they pretend to give out massively soon.
Post by: dragdeler on June 26, 2021, 01:37:30 pm
Quote
The past two weeks every other day some acquaintance or friend have lost someone to covid.
:( at that rate I bet they weren't all that old. Yet shitheads will joke about me wearing a mask at my job, outside, like the rules actually prescribe to anybody entering the area... Ugh there it is, the consqeuence of our indifference. And I'm here procrastinating getting a vaccine just because I realized that like allmost everybody I know IRL ignored the option to get vaccinated in some thougtless manner or another, and like, if whichever trends wane off and the wind suddenly turns, I wanna be in that one control group an not the other :( simply because all my IRL contacts are in that one group. I especially don't want to be the healthiest MF around and forced to fake emphaty to any close ones who missed their invitation... Ugh I don't even know if mine is still valid :(.
I think there is enough vaccines out allready that there is no reason to be biased against a cuban one, other than less stats being available about it. I doesn't seem to be a near impossible task, rather reproducable. I think the invitations they give out here make it such that there is different vaccines given to people in the same household. And that doesn't seem like the worst idea to me, eventhough IDK if it's just a rumor or actual policy.
Post by: LordBaal on June 26, 2021, 03:45:13 pm
The issue with the cuban vaccine is they fist brought the russian one, and then they said that vaccine is only for the people with the party ID... and then they said, hey, for everyone else (ie everyone NOT in the party) we are bringing the cuban one.
By chance of getting the russian vaccine I mean I'll be able to bribe someone so we can get it without actually having to join the political party.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 26, 2021, 03:49:58 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 26, 2021, 03:58:32 pm
With that in mind, I'd be very suspicious of a vaccine made in a country with even fewer resources. Cuba has a surprisingly capable homegrown research setup, but still.
Post by: LordBaal on June 26, 2021, 04:28:49 pm
Wouldn't you be even a bit suspicious...
Post by: MrRoboto75 on June 26, 2021, 04:37:23 pm
Cuba has a surprisingly capable homegrown research setup, but still.
I thought Cuban healthcare was relatively robust, in spite of US embargo.
Post by: LordBaal on June 26, 2021, 04:46:34 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 26, 2021, 04:49:55 pm
Post by: LordBaal on June 26, 2021, 05:23:02 pm
Even if Maduro says they are taking whatever and shooting everyone else with Pfizer, it's more than a little suspicious and worrisome why they are segregating who they vaccine with what.
EDIT: For clearness.
Post by: Rolan7 on July 04, 2021, 11:03:17 pm
Would have been sooner, but for months I was feeling like I shouldn't take a dose that other people could use. And then for a lot of last month I was in a really weird state.
I did instantly feel more focused once I got the Moderna, which was obviously just relief from being so afraid of the, ah, needle.
It was barely noticeable, like the flu shot! Nothing to be afraid about. It's such a strange phobia... I think wearing my mask helped. With my eyes closed and mask on, I was able to be somewhere else. Seriously, I barely felt it happen. My hands were literally jittering as I filled out the intake form, at my local hardware store. I was so anxious. But it was nothing.
It was mildly more sore than any other flu vaccine, I think, but my mom insisted on visiting and giving me some offbrand advil which took the edge off. I shouldn't have waited so long.
Post by: Sirus on July 05, 2021, 01:39:41 am
Post by: Jopax on July 07, 2021, 11:26:55 am
From the initial panic due to lack of vaccines, the shitshows that happened in procuring laughably small stocks of said vaccines to now having countries like Serbia and Croatia offering literal money to people if they go and get their shots, all in a span of less than a year.
There's even a report of some guy in Serbia going around and getting 6 shots just to collect the incentive 6 times, which, for their economic situation turns out to be a fairly sizeable chunk of money.
Post by: Sanctume on July 07, 2021, 01:14:52 pm
Post by: Starver on July 07, 2021, 01:58:21 pm
(I also had my 2nd jab the other day. I again got muscle-aches and other symptoms across most of my body, starting maybe 6 hours or so after the event - though not anywhere as bad as the 1st Jab response. I'm now pretty much back to normal except for my jab-site hurting something rotten.)
I also lost my chance to post this parody (https://i.imgur.com/W5MfNQw.jpg) (the original is on this page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hancock%27s_Half_Hour#Television_version), and I had fun making mine, just a day before it became obsolete), but I'm fairly certain this other (https://i.imgur.com/nb4S3QB.jpg) will still come in handy for something, probably on another thread...
[1] Actually, the 'bribe' in England is that doubly-vaccinated people (and under-18s, as a sop to their status of 'not expected to be jabbed') can ignore the current self-isolation orders based on known-contact. I'm not sure if the PCR-test alternative is a replacement or just 'a suggestion'. I have no idea how this affects me, though. Probably doesn't.
Post by: Vector on July 07, 2021, 02:42:48 pm
@Jopax here California. Anyone who get vax on of after may 27 this year can get $50 gift card.
*sigh*. Coulda used that money.
Post by: TamerVirus on July 07, 2021, 02:46:02 pm
$50 gift card.Gift card to what, tho? Target? Walmart?
or, heaven forbid, APPLEBEES?
Post by: None on July 07, 2021, 03:14:18 pm
Unrelated, but in hindsight with the naming standard change, I have pretty much no idea where the Delta variant is prevalent right now.
Post by: Starver on July 07, 2021, 03:43:59 pm
Unrelated, but in hindsight with the naming standard change, I have pretty much no idea where the Delta variant is prevalent right now.Hard to say. You need variant-testing. Apparently 90% of UK cases (with a new wave clearly happening) are Delta. But one can assume that (parts of?) India are awash with it, with a low rate of positive confirmation.
There was mention of .za being another place with high incidence, but they're another with variant-detecting expertise (they picked up the strain now known as Beta, originally) so its more likely to be just known more rather than particularly more incident than amongst less (publically) informative jurisdictions.
If Delta came from India (it could have just as easily have been taken to there) then it's probably found itself passed onto most of the world. Either directly or via another nation (UK, e.g.) that is now a hub despite all the best-planned travel-lockdowns (and, honestly, travel lockdowns have generally not been best-planned).
Post by: TamerVirus on July 07, 2021, 03:51:39 pm
It's Lambda (from Peru) that's hip and new now
Post by: scriver on July 07, 2021, 05:56:42 pm
Delta is quickly becoming old news.
It's Lambda (from Peru) that's hip and new now
Close enough (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyLdoQGBchQ)
Post by: feelotraveller on July 07, 2021, 08:58:45 pm
So much for the absurd predictions that Covid would not mutate...
Post by: Urist McSpike on July 07, 2021, 09:31:12 pm
Bad news. I got Freedom Covid for my 4th. I guess... never bothered getting tested - started with a bit of a fever, raw throat, dry cough, headaches... 2nd or 3rd day I wondered about my sense of smell, and opened up my tin of Tiger Balm. Yep, only the faintest trace of a scent. (Tried the Vicks Vapo-rub, too, same.) Figured I'm staying at home for vacay anyway, so I'll just self-quarantine.
And yes, I did get vaccinated already. The counties near me in my state are showing an uptick in Delta. This is my 2nd time, 1st was just after Thanksgiving. Hmm.. what's the next holiday I should watch out for?
No clue where I would have picked it up, but then my state is around 37% vaccinated anyway.
Post by: dragdeler on July 10, 2021, 05:02:07 am
Post by: scriver on July 10, 2021, 06:57:05 am
But the deputee was anti-vax
Post by: Egan_BW on July 10, 2021, 07:30:08 am
I got shot.Im guessing that we should see the other guy.
Post by: dragdeler on July 10, 2021, 07:48:07 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 10, 2021, 07:48:58 am
Post by: delphonso on July 13, 2021, 01:23:45 am
Post by: wierd on July 13, 2021, 02:33:10 am
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 13, 2021, 02:35:26 am
Post by: LordBaal on July 15, 2021, 04:08:31 pm
We could not have the shots before they rolled the Cuban thing. We'll wait till we can get the Russian or Chinese ones and be sure is the thing.
Post by: nenjin on July 15, 2021, 04:10:41 pm
Within that time frame, two of the primary people at the business came down with covid so the go-live was pushed back two weeks.
At least one of these guys was in a conference room with 8 other people from another business for hours and hours.
Goddamn am I glad I got vaccinated. Curious to see what everyone's reactions are when we're back on site. Half tempted to go get tested even then.
Wondering if the "Polo and slacks" crowd got vaccinated while the "jeans and work boots" people did not.
Post by: Bumber on July 17, 2021, 08:12:59 pm
We could not have the shots before they rolled the Cuban thing.
I don't think tobacco products are an effective protection against COVID.
Post by: Starver on July 18, 2021, 02:30:01 pm
The satirists are doubtless apoplectically happy.
Post by: Iduno on July 18, 2021, 03:00:54 pm
Went to Texas last week to implement a new business.
Yeah, Texas isn't a good place for being healthy. Last I saw, they had counties who managed 2% infection in 2 weeks, and I don't think you can get tested outside of a hospital (and nobody would do it outside of a hospital anyway, as they believe it's either ended or was never real).
Wondering if the "Polo and slacks" crowd got vaccinated while the "jeans and work boots" people did not.
I've seen more opposition from office workers. People who have gotten it and know people who got it (people who had to stay at work and work with the public; so lower-paid workers) were more likely to get the vax if they were given the opportunity. There's also been a lot of effort to keep service workers from getting the vaccine, because they're considered less important.
Post by: Frumple on July 18, 2021, 04:57:05 pm
It's maybe more politics than Covid, but honestly you could hardly make up the current situation with the mess the top UK government bods got themselves in...They've seemed almost depressed over the last few years, actually. Reality's been one upping them :-\
The satirists are doubtless apoplectically happy.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 18, 2021, 06:39:17 pm
Spoiler: really bad drawing attempting to explain. V=virus, AV=Altered Virus (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 18, 2021, 08:11:52 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 18, 2021, 08:20:46 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 18, 2021, 08:39:29 pm
-what happened? You don’t have to post it again but why did you delete this?
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 18, 2021, 08:49:34 pm
Basically, I was posting my own idea, but then after thinking it through I thought "Oh wait, my idea is just worse and more complicated vaccination..."
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 18, 2021, 09:07:44 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on July 19, 2021, 02:08:53 am
Post by: dragdeler on July 19, 2021, 08:40:56 am
Post by: LordBaal on July 19, 2021, 09:23:24 am
Post by: Vector on July 19, 2021, 11:36:11 am
I am still careful about really de-anoning and have enjoyed getting caught up in fewer quoteathon blow-by-blows but, anyway ...
Yeah, sometimes people just say something and then they rethink it. I was literally talking to a friend last night where I started a sentence and just said: "that's going in the garbage, it doesn't add anything to the conversation." Just some needlessly pedantic point that I started making because I was too tired and then changed my mind. It shouldn't surprise anyone that that happens in casual text formats if it happens IRL, right?
Post by: None on July 19, 2021, 03:23:22 pm
Also, having made off-taste jokes that I immediately regretted and then edited away, I'll agree that some posts just don't deserve to stand on their own and that's okay.
So, uh, back on topic, how's FDA approval going for the covid vaccines?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 19, 2021, 07:12:47 pm
Post by: martinuzz on July 20, 2021, 06:35:30 am
Post by: feelotraveller on July 22, 2021, 07:58:48 am
Post by: Akura on July 26, 2021, 11:23:45 am
Post by: Doomblade187 on July 26, 2021, 12:31:58 pm
Got my first. Pfizer.huzzah!
Post by: Sirus on July 26, 2021, 12:37:57 pm
My paranoia isn't helped by the fact that I can go into a gas station and see someone without a mask on coughing into their hands.
Post by: Vector on July 26, 2021, 02:02:14 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on July 26, 2021, 02:46:07 pm
Spoiler: I also got this wild thing for $1.50 off Wish! (click to show/hide)
I do not understand Wish at all and the one I got is sold out, but it's pretty much exactly what it looks like: a sunglass with more material. It seems reasonably comfortable but I question how much protection it provides - seems like the particles just blow left and right past it, in fact it hardly obscures breathing at all somehow, so I should probably wear my cloth underneath it.
Mostly I got it because it looks cool (and now I'm all shy about actually wearing it out) but I do need to wear sunglasses anyway. I'll try to figure out if it obscures my voice, I kinda assume it's worse than the cloth for that.
Post by: None on July 26, 2021, 03:25:43 pm
Speaking of acquiring masks, where do people get those ergonomic snugly-over-whole-lower-face lookin' masks that like the sports announcers use? I'd love to get a stock of a few quality masks in case things go grim again.
Post by: scriver on July 26, 2021, 03:55:03 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 26, 2021, 04:11:32 pm
Post by: LordBaal on July 26, 2021, 04:41:58 pm
Post by: Frumple on July 26, 2021, 04:49:01 pm
And the plague is like the exact opposite of stopped, right now.
Post by: Starver on July 26, 2021, 06:27:15 pm
No, it's "PFI-ZZAH".Got my first. Pfizer.huzzah!
Personal mask news. The home-sewn mask that I've been wearing (and washing!) since just before masks became compulsary must have fallen out of my pocket the other day. I've had backup (commercial) ones also in my pocket for quite a while now (since I was no longer going to be PPE-hogger and potentially depriving medical staff of their own peace-of-mind by joining the panic-buying), but it rather seems to book-end the compulsary mask-wearing times almost neatly.
I am of course falling back on a backup mask. The problem is still with those who won't wear masks where they're potentially useful still. (The comparison between the Pandemic and the Pingdemic is that both are caused by individuals who have caught Covid and then continued to mix. And surely it's obvious which is the worst to be affected by.)
And I am really doubtful about those who use visors (especially the "lower-jaw visor", seems to be all the rage among older women. It's basically slung like an extended lower-jaw, making it like this guy (https://he-man.fandom.com/wiki/Trap_Jaw) but with more underbite and in plexiglass) because though I know how air can stream around the edges of even a proper mask that isn't at the full extent of an N95 type (the lost mask wasn't perfect, but I at least could fit it to stop the air going straight up to steam my glasses), but visors basically only work as splash-guards, and the jaw-protector ones seem to have only a fraction even of that use.
Now, some people might have legitimate reasons to not be able to wear a mask (or a proper mask, or even a mask properly), but I'd say they are rarer than the number of people who went that route of argument when it was a national policy and much rarer than those who now don't even have that incentive to stick to best-practice. But many people are as many people are, so my mask now has to protect against the multitude that aren't themselves protecting themselves, rather than merely acting as a final line of defence/being my personal contribution to the group's first line of defence.
But them's the times we're living in. Still a case of "see you on the other side!", I suppose.
Post by: nenjin on July 26, 2021, 07:17:22 pm
The half visor is just pure vanity.
Every person has to decide to what level they're going to take their personal protection. But if you follow that train of thought to its logical conclusion, the answer is they should probably just still be quarantining. As soon as you go out in less than a Hazmat suit, you're running into all the same eventual failure points.
So people wearing a visor but no mask is just like.....wow, you probably paid too much for that and it's still not actually protecting you.
Kinda makes you realize that if Covid were instead, like, a hemorrhagic fever, you can bet your ass people would have learned and adhered a lot quicker to way stricter protocols. Dead is dead, but a lot of people are incapable of seeing that from where they're standing because people getting sick with Covid ins't that dramatic until they're well out of sight and mind.
Post by: Rolan7 on July 26, 2021, 09:44:33 pm
I forgot about the angle of protecting my eyes from droplets though! That's a nice bonus, on top of capturing my own droplets and the personal reassurance I get from hiding my face. I still need to test out my voice though. I tend to pull my cloth down for drive-through intercoms already (though obviously not the cashier).
It's kinda funny (and not ha-ha funny) realizing how many shoppers are going maskless nowadays. Particularly when they move too close to me. You'd think months of maskwearing would *encourage* my to make eye contact more, but I think I fell back into my instincts of looking down instead. So I didn't notice how many bare faces are around. Not that I'm shopping much, and most people are pretty good about distancing, but... yeah I shouldn't worry so much about weirding them out with my eye-protecting visor.
Post by: Starver on July 27, 2021, 04:58:32 am
I'm wondering if early-disadopters are the same sort of people.
(As a glasses-wearer, I already am used, perhaps disproportionately so, to having everyday eye protection as a norm. Obviously I still would need (additional, compatible) eye protection if I were grinding metal and specs do not fully close off droplet splashes either, but it does most of the work of a fuller-face visor in that regard.)
Post by: Bumber on July 27, 2021, 06:13:38 am
Post by: Akura on July 27, 2021, 03:28:41 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on July 27, 2021, 03:49:04 pm
Post by: LordBaal on July 27, 2021, 05:30:30 pm
Post by: martinuzz on July 27, 2021, 06:27:59 pm
Post by: dragdeler on August 04, 2021, 10:52:06 am
What I´m actually here for: Some dude felt like he needed to acoast me for wearing a mask... outside blabla... 3m blabla... I know a guy who got a fungal infection in the lungs from his mask. I didn´t say anything because if you can´t shut up about somebody else wearing a mask you´re basically a trashbrain barely capable of language... But I should have played the victim blaming cart:
Oh he probably wore a dirty mask too long, or lives in a moldy house, it´s not the mask per se just the circumstances, and he was probably in poor shape anyway. Btw are we sure he didn`t smoke moldy weed?
I´m just sad my mom is antivaxx... :( I should have opposed taking it she´d be all over it. Forgive her for she does not know why she does what she does. I cant even act in the interest of the virus (given I´m safe) since it might affect a loved one; because yeah this shit didn´t hurt people nearly enough.
Oh the damn irony of it: for all I care everybody can fucking die, yet I wear the mask because I know my actions have consequences - then you have the people who want nothing more than return to normal but fail at the equivalent of putting on socks. But the crowd just have a failsafe way to be wrong about these things, like assuming masks are for self protection, or vaccinations are for anything else than self protection. By the end of summer even the most backwards countries are slowly going to bring back the mask mandates, eventhough I allready knew for a fact (confirmed case) that vaccinated people can still be contagious in like march, and anticipated it way before.
Clown idiot world worthy of no respect.
Post by: None on August 04, 2021, 11:23:54 am
Post by: Starver on August 04, 2021, 12:16:12 pm
But my anecdote is just as anecdotal as any other individual anecdote, and I'm certainly not aware of sufficient uncontested and uncountered studies that have been able to take the wider view. Possibly there are, but they're 'suppressed' as either being too boringly null-result or just don't say enough to get anyone excited enough outside the field.
[1] I always wanted the "have you had it?" one, to establish my history, so long as it seemed unnecessary (by symptoms or proven contact) to waste a "do you have it?" type. I'm not sure if vaccination has made that a far more useless proposition, without the highly sensitive ones that probably are[n't*] cheap but can distinguish between what prompt the existence of particular antigens...
* edited to correct!
Post by: TamerVirus on August 04, 2021, 02:36:51 pm
Surely nothing can go wrong
Post by: nenjin on August 04, 2021, 02:58:29 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on August 04, 2021, 03:00:28 pm
'ere we go again......just now in a post Jan. 6th environment.oh goodness no, not again
Post by: Rolan7 on August 04, 2021, 03:34:59 pm
(https://i.imgur.com/2oJ3oq7.png)
668 Covid deaths in the US yesterday. Their blood (well, choking gasping death) is on the hands of every cynical manipulator that has pushed anti-vax lies.
And the common people, the victims who are too busy to fully investigate this stuff? Who got manipulated? They have my sympathy.
Those who then find the fervor and energy to riot over this rather than over real problems that actually exit... they lose that sympathy. Maybe they need an object lesson in police brutality to give them some perspective. Not that the police will actually do their jobs - being a plague vector is a Trumpist/right-wing ideal, so I'm looking forward to some capitol-police tier handling of the situation.
What a shitty cause to riot over... but here we go.
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2021, 05:29:17 am
Post by: Iduno on August 06, 2021, 09:27:08 am
It's not just the deaths, but also the people whose quality of life is going to be axed for a year or two... Assuming no chronic long-term damage. Turns out that all the strange symptoms of long-Covid may be the result of autoimmune responses (https://www.healtheuropa.eu/covid-19-may-cause-long-term-autoimmune-complications/108689/)
Isn't that what was expected based on how corona viruses normally work?
I know CDC/WHO said it wouldn't happen, and also that it's impossible for a virus to have airborne spread, and also that children are immune, but their jobs are to keep people calm no matter the cost in human lives and long-term health.
Post by: nenjin on August 06, 2021, 09:44:04 am
NGL, I was a little stunned. Nebraska is by and large a polite state that lives by "Mind your own fucking business" sometimes to a fault. So he walked away after I didn't say anything, then I added, loud enough to be heard through my mask "Thanks for the advice I didn't ask you for." Ended up standing right behind him at the register and he's doing everything he can not to look my way. Clerk clearly saw something was up and had the look of someone who is wondering if they'll need to call the cops.
Post by: LordBaal on August 06, 2021, 09:58:19 am
Mankind is a huge Darwin award waiting to happen.
Post by: dragdeler on August 06, 2021, 11:18:51 am
The freedom of one person ends where that of another begins.
Also social inertia. People sure as shit prefer to act out of habit than activate their consciousness, even for short bursts. I see it everyday at my job. The box is right next to where I put it usually, like adjacent, like litterally touching eachother? "Was full so I put in front".... You mean you lifted it past the sign that is calling you out, instead of throwing one glance around you? I swear there are so many domains where people feel entitled act out of sheer automatisms, that don´t even need to make sense on a surface level. Out of sight out of mind. I honestly do not understand how there isn´t car crashes every 20 seconds when I see how inattentive the crowd is.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 06, 2021, 11:19:36 am
Post by: TD1 on August 06, 2021, 06:41:21 pm
The next day she and I went out for breakfast and afterwards went to her house. She decides to take a covid test because she'll be going to work that night. It's positive (subsequent, more rigorous tests also positive).
Yay? It's been a few days since, and I'm constantly second-guessing my own health ???
Doesn't help I've had no vaccine I guess.
Post by: LordBaal on August 06, 2021, 07:02:18 pm
I'd have left the shopIs that a variation of Elvis left the building?
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 08, 2021, 04:32:25 am
My brother's gf is a lovely, bouncy, friendly gal. She's also a nurse. Anyway the family went with her to a waterpark, I was in her car most of the day and she obviously had the flu or something. She said it wasn't covid, and I figured a nurse would know/not say that without having had a test.Sucks dude. Doctors & nurses are pretty terrible with this stuff because their frame of reference is much more extreme than the general populace. I work with lots of respiratory staff and they wear it as a badge of pride that they've caught most of all God's most virulent of lung diseases already, and it took a very long time to convince them Covid-19 was serious because it didn't leave them keeling over in blood. As the old adage goes, medics make the worst patients. Keep yourself tested & fortified with chicken soup and satsumas, if you've got an oxygen probe or oximeter that's a good one to check every now and then when you're at resting state (below 90% oxygen is a pretty reliable indicator you're suffering from something, below 80% you call an ambulance). Seems kinda obvious but if you're sprinting or working out like crazy and you get low oxygen it's no problem, but if you're just lying in bed and it's dropping there's something wrong. If you've got the coof then it's gonna hit you a week or so after, so even if you have it you should be fine for now.
The next day she and I went out for breakfast and afterwards went to her house. She decides to take a covid test because she'll be going to work that night. It's positive (subsequent, more rigorous tests also positive).
Yay? It's been a few days since, and I'm constantly second-guessing my own health ???
Doesn't help I've had no vaccine I guess.
There's also a fair good chance that you might not have contracted the Covid. I once managed to get away with sharing an office with a positive staff member the whole day with no ventilation and masks off every tea break, but somehow didn't contract it despite being exposed to it. I'll pray you share in my blessings there
Post by: martinuzz on August 11, 2021, 04:39:26 am
BUT THEY ARE BECOMING A MAYOR ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUE. THAT NON BIODEGRADABLE SHITE IS EVERYWHERE NOW.
In other words, people, please. Throw away your used facemasks in a garbage bin, not on the street or in the canal. Thanks.
Literally billions of these things are dumped into nature every single day now.
Post by: wierd on August 11, 2021, 05:08:58 am
Humans are just plain shit at being ecologically friendly. (Especially city humans. I have waxed philosophical before about city people dumping their trash on rural people before. Basically, the less direct the connection to something somebody has, the fewer fucks they give about it. City people tend to have little to no direct connection to natural environments, and thus, give zero fucks, by and large. If there is a source of inconvenience, they can give less than zero fucks, and have negative fucks given-- eg, act with vendetta. You can see this right now with the angry anti-mask folks.)
Post by: Starver on August 11, 2021, 08:16:26 am
I'm getting second thoughts about facemasks. I am sure they do indeed help contain the spread of the virus.
BUT THEY ARE BECOMING [...]
16-18 months ago, here, they were much more obvious, even slightly before it was mandated. In fact, it was the early-adopters who came along to the initial socially-distanced queue for the supermarket, winding its elongated way around a hastilly constructed set of barriers placed snaking-round the quiet end of the carpark, already blue-masked and bluer-gloves (https://firefly.fandom.com/wiki/Hands_of_Blue). My favourites were the two young women who seemingly had dressed up for shopping (no kidding - short skirts, revealing top, uncomfortable footwear, at least one with a puffy faux-fur jacket pretty much falling off her shoulders, YGTI) who I'm gonna assume were care-home staff 'off-shift' in the middle of the day with no real evidence (especially their clothing) but for their easy and carefree use of the then rare-as-hen's-teeth 'PPE'.
...anyway, however few there were of the blue-maskers, you'd see them all over the place around the supermarket carpark where their single-useness had been uncerimoniously ended, and even in country verges where wind and/or window-dumped had sent them drifting.
These days I don't see so many of these. Obviously all those not litterpicked/drifted under the hedges out of sight are still extant, they've been found in reefs and deep ocean and have spread out (apparently[1]), but the numbers visible are surprisingly low (still non-zero). What I do see are cloth-based masks. Still plastics-/polymers-heavy, even if as microplastic shedding, but Leviticus-defying mixed-fabric constructions. And, meaningfully, obviously accidental discards, not one-use-then-bye-bye but ones with corporate logos, superheros, fashionable animal-stripes/spots, clearly a chosen and reusable mask that might even have its loss rued rather than just one in a long line of packaged single-trip ones.
(In my own pocket, if I check, I probably currently have three masks. Two of the 'spares' reusable but not fashionable ones that I dislike because they're particular difficult to prevent glasses-steaming with, seemingly forcing all air (not going through the dense filtering cloth) straight up the bridge of my nose; and a 'one use blue mask' I was forced to use at one of my jab visits, because I didn't want to just chuck it without thought (incidentally, it seems to filter much less and indiscriminately side-flow in all directions much more). As it was used for only around half an hour, it seemed to me that (with time enough to deprecate any actual pathogens it filtered in any given instance) it would act as a spare-spare. Though it probably looks a bit scrunched now so may not be accepted by another "you must use a blue mask!" venue, in future.
Also in my pocket I should have another blue-mask (from the other jab-visit, with same issues and intents) and my 'old faithful' mask, hand-crafted in the early days and - for something made to a general pattern - very much comforting[2] and washed regularly (in cycle with the spares). But I've managed to lose both (adding to whatever verge/hedgerow/gutter-load there already was) at one or other post-pocket-delving time when I've been careless. (Though, in my early days, I kept my nice-mask in a sandwich bag for over-finnicky 'biosecure' extraction/re-envelopment, and at least I no longer had it in that, so the bag isn't causing trouble with the environment at the same time.)
[1] Alhough I'm betting the source of these are as likely properly disposed masks then improperly packed in a 'garbage container' for transnational 'recycling' of the current controversial sort, then suffered the fate of many a shipped container of being lost in a storm and spilling out to be trapped in a plastics gyre or settling far from habitation but really not that far from shipping lanes.
[2] Triple-layered fabric and nicely face-hugging. It had a length of (I think) straightened paperclip in the 'top' edge (though only by feeling for it can you tell which way up it should be) that helps to crimp around the nose profile and prevents spectacle-steam quite convincingly. I miss it.
Post by: nenjin on August 11, 2021, 09:24:50 am
Post by: dragdeler on August 11, 2021, 10:16:06 am
I thought I lost my cloth mask yesterday and I was very upset. The paper ones are annoying AF but I don´t mind this cloth one.
Post by: nenjin on August 14, 2021, 01:54:39 pm
And I guess in my mind, it was a test of the vaccine for me.
Just took my first COVID self-test. Assuming I did it right and the test is accurate, it came back negative. I have one more complete kit I'll take tomorrow.
So I may have managed to escape' the Hot Zone without bringing it back with me. The local news reports were basically like "No pediatric beds available due to COVID" and "20% of hospital beds left due to COVID and falling." They mandated masks for kids in school a day or so before I left, despite the governor threatening to illegally reduce their pay (which he can't.)
Suffice to say I'm feeling cautious relief.
Post by: Bumber on August 14, 2021, 09:31:37 pm
Post by: None on August 15, 2021, 02:51:56 pm
this smells like more 'covid death count' nonsense, or ammunition at midterm elections for some about-face whataboutism
Post by: Akura on August 16, 2021, 11:21:02 am
I think the needle hurt more this time than the first, and right away I have a headache that I'm not sure if it's because of the vaccine or the hot weather.
Post by: Starver on August 16, 2021, 01:08:21 pm
I think the needle hurt more this time than the first, and right away I have a headache that I'm not sure if it's because of the vaccine or the hot weather.Could be just a less competent injector. (Especially if they injected it into your head, not your arm. :P )
Welcome to the clan. You'll be receiving your remote nanochip updates shortly*. Please do not try to resist.
* - if you close your eyes at the right moment, you should see "Uninstalling DOS 6.0, installing Windows ME" scroll up your vision. It tends to stick at 78% installed for longer than you'd think it should, but that's just Media Player indexing your memories, apparently.
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 16, 2021, 04:04:30 pm
I think the needle hurt more this time than the first, and right away I have a headache that I'm not sure if it's because of the vaccine or the hot weather.Could be just a less competent injector. (Especially if they injected it into your head, not your arm. :P )
Welcome to the clan. You'll be receiving your remote nanochip updates shortly*. Please do not try to resist.
* - if you close your eyes at the right moment, you should see "Uninstalling DOS 6.0, installing Windows ME" scroll up your vision. It tends to stick at 78% installed for longer than you'd think it should, but that's just Media Player indexing your memories, apparently.
At first I was alarmed by the Bonzi Buddy hiding in my eyelids, but now it's like I really do have a friend.
Post by: Starver on August 17, 2021, 09:21:54 am
The point being that the source of the infection is not identified, and so there would obviously be other infections going on, unchecked if not dealt with. And it is speculated to be Delta, which would be a factor to consider if confirmed. It's too late for GB, US, most other ISO-codes (even AU, possibly), but NZ might be able to hold it at bay[1]. Though I don't exactly know how the efforts (governmental/public) are proceding to match with preventative protection. 20% vaccination, apparently, but I don't know how much supply and/or demand limits are involved, without diving into various interpretions.
I think NZ is well-placed to deal with this, if everybody is sensible. And (apart from throwing themselves off a bridge with a length of knicker-elastic, rolling down hills in big balls and careering up and down canyons in jet-boats! ...which quickly became the tourists doing it, anyway, as with visiting active volcanic islands) I always tend to think of Kiwis as sensible. And good in an emergency. Please don't cause me to be disillusioned about this.
[1] In order to become the post-apocalyptic home of the saviour telepaths in The Chrysalids!
Post by: Iduno on August 17, 2021, 08:01:41 pm
He's now on very expensive COVID medications (most likely at taxpayer expense) after catching the virus. Unlike most people here, he's able to get tested and treatment, but it's not going to help his arguments.
Post by: StrawBarrel on August 17, 2021, 08:54:14 pm
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home
I haven’t been really keeping very detailed attention to covid. This is eye opening stuff from Texas. Governor Abbott seems to just disregard the safety and lives of people.
Post by: nenjin on August 17, 2021, 09:44:06 pm
Post by: Bumber on August 18, 2021, 03:27:06 am
The governor of Texas (which has become deeply anti-vax after a decade of people moving in from California) has been fighting anti-COVID measures. Threatening to defund school districts that require masks or vaccinations, removing liquor licenses from bars/restaurants that do the same, making it illegal for government employees to have a vaccination card, etc.
He's now on very expensive COVID medications (most likely at taxpayer expense) after catching the virus. Unlike most people here, he's able to get tested and treatment, but it's not going to help his arguments.
He was vaccinated himself, though.
Post by: Starver on August 18, 2021, 05:38:10 am
(And an iron will/vibrant faith/self-confidence in your body being able to naturally repel it (or, in the worst case, shrug it off after it catches onto you anyway) may not be much use, and far less use without either/both the above.)
Ought to be... Probably won't be, to those that are already primed against any/all of the suite of precautions.
Post by: Vector on August 19, 2021, 01:08:36 pm
Post by: LordBaal on August 19, 2021, 01:39:42 pm
Post by: Vector on August 19, 2021, 01:41:39 pm
Post by: None on August 19, 2021, 03:00:13 pm
Moreso related to the pandemic- a nearby county has re-enacted mask mandates for everyone over the age of two. Participation was really good while I was out that way, but it started very recently. We'll see how long that holds, anyways. Tensions do seem to be rising again.
Oh, NPR told me today that mid-late September is about when experts figure it will be time for booster shots, with the recommendation that anyone that's had Pfizer or Moderna get whatever booster they have to offer eight months after having received the second jab.
Nothing to report about the J&J jab, except that I think they're working on a booster of their own but I don't recall where or when I heard that or what any recommendations are from experts. Which is, well, not surprising, since J&J recipients are like 3% of the vaccines administered and we all know how well medical science and minority groups go together.
Here's a New York Times article asking about J&J boosters, but it boils down to 'we don't know.' Pop this sucker open in incognito to avoid paywalling.
(https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/health/coronavirus-johnson-vaccine-booster.html)
Post by: LordBaal on August 19, 2021, 05:43:38 pm
It's a gamble, I really don't know what we are gonna get, the russian one ran out here and the second dose will not be given to anyone, but any vaccine is better than anything, specially with the delta variant and black fungus now.
Post by: Frumple on August 19, 2021, 07:04:57 pm
p.s. fuck desantis
fuck desantis with a nail studded palm tree
Post by: LordBaal on August 19, 2021, 07:19:28 pm
Post by: Vector on August 19, 2021, 07:50:35 pm
Post by: StrawBarrel on August 20, 2021, 04:23:38 am
I feel that- if I may tirade, culturally and capitalistically, we place a lot of value in what we're able to do and accomplish for capitalism, which has proven quite antithetical to the doldrums a global pandemic has thrown us into. Unfortunately, we sell off our self-worth first , which is really unfair to each and all of us. You got this!very good point
Post by: None on August 21, 2021, 12:39:55 pm
Florida isn't doing so hot! The governor is threatening to pull funding from schools that enforce mask mandates against DeSantis' edicts against mandates commensurate with the salaries of the schools' schoolboards. Here's the article. (https://abcnews.go.com/US/florida-school-districts-48-hours-reverse-mask-mandates/story?id=79565155&cid=clicksource_4380645_7_heads_posts_card_image)
Even better yet, Orlando's going into a water emergency and asking residents to cut back on water usage (lawns, carwash, etc), since the hospitals are using a lot of the liquid oxygen available to ventilate Covid patients and that liquid oxygen is ordinarily used to purify its water. Someone mentioned that they're going into a 'boil water' advisory today, but I don't see an article for that yet. Here's the scoop. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/20/covid-water-crisis-orlando-urges-residents-to-conserve-water-amid-liquid-oxygen-shortage/?sh=6f73d0266e84)
Stay safe, Floridians.
Post by: LordBaal on August 21, 2021, 02:15:41 pm
Post by: Starver on August 21, 2021, 03:07:30 pm
New Zeland is going back to total quarantine?
Well, they had......a planned 3-day period (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58241619) over that one (connectionless) case that should have ended by now, but it sounds like they found some(?) more in Wellington that they can't trace obvious links for. (It's not reported on BBC News, SFAICT, but I saw it in passing on some other news-site's sidebar, without time to check it out fully or remember where.)
Post by: Frumple on August 21, 2021, 06:11:58 pm
Ready for some fun news?Florida hasn't been doing so hot since the plague started. At this point I don't think it's conceivable that changes unless something final happens to our governership and legislature :-\
Florida isn't doing so hot! The governor is threatening to pull funding from schools that enforce mask mandates against DeSantis' edicts against mandates commensurate with the salaries of the schools' schoolboards. Here's the article. (https://abcnews.go.com/US/florida-school-districts-48-hours-reverse-mask-mandates/story?id=79565155&cid=clicksource_4380645_7_heads_posts_card_image)
Even better yet, Orlando's going into a water emergency and asking residents to cut back on water usage (lawns, carwash, etc), since the hospitals are using a lot of the liquid oxygen available to ventilate Covid patients and that liquid oxygen is ordinarily used to purify its water. Someone mentioned that they're going into a 'boil water' advisory today, but I don't see an article for that yet. Here's the scoop. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2021/08/20/covid-water-crisis-orlando-urges-residents-to-conserve-water-amid-liquid-oxygen-shortage/?sh=6f73d0266e84)
Stay safe, Floridians.
Post by: feelotraveller on August 21, 2021, 07:26:23 pm
Direct answer to the initial question:
Quote
The country is in day four of a national lockdown, which will probably need to be extended beyond the planned seven days.
What that quarantine amounts to can be seen here: https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/alert-level-4/ (https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/alert-level-4/)
Post by: Ziusudra on August 21, 2021, 08:02:11 pm
Florida hasn't been doing so hot since the plague started.Florida hasn't been doing so hot since Florida started.
Post by: Starver on August 21, 2021, 08:25:37 pm
((I've just realised that NZ appears under BBC's news site as a part of Asia. Australia has its own top-level section, which I looked at earlier to try to find info from the last day or so, just to be swamped by Oz's bad news days and be convinced nothing new was happening the other side of the Tasman Sea. Not sure if that's better or worse than "treating Kiwis as nust a brand of Australian", in the same way as your typical Canada/USAian[1] assumptions.))
Either way, the numbers are enviable (enviably low!) doubtless because of proper isolation (on top of the other advantages NZ has), except apparently for vaccination rates which are low-but-not-therefore-enviable. I hope they can continue to stay on top of it, and fill in the gaps a bit, but time will tell.
[1] All too easy to do, for both, until you hear some vowels... ;)
Post by: Bumber on August 22, 2021, 08:38:30 am
Florida hasn't been doing so hot since the plague started. At this point I don't think it's conceivable that changes unless something final happens to our governership and legislature :-\
Still smack dab in the middle of the country for deaths per 100k. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/) How is Florida average!?
New Jersey maintains their title of "Hell on Earth" (originally earned as a result of Jersey Shore.)
My state of California seems to be doing way better than it was last time I checked (a year ago?) 19th lowest.
Post by: Frumple on August 22, 2021, 09:17:46 am
By dint of the US's general response, last year in particular, being fucking terrible. Twenty something geographical regions being relatively worse off is just an idle indictment of the nation's pandemic response :-\Florida hasn't been doing so hot since the plague started. At this point I don't think it's conceivable that changes unless something final happens to our governership and legislature :-\
Still smack dab in the middle of the country for deaths per 100k. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/) How is Florida average!?
... props to that stat graph for just casually adding two states to the country, though. Maybe someday soon-ish it'll actually become reality...
Post by: None on August 22, 2021, 09:25:54 am
Oh, plus the state's historically dodgy reporting of covid cases/deaths, that might notch it down a few states.
Post by: Iduno on August 22, 2021, 09:30:19 am
Oh, plus the state's historically dodgy reporting of covid cases/deaths, that might notch it down a few states.
Texas is the same. I haven't ever even seen a place to get tested. I think it's hospital only, and you can't get to a hospital because they're full.
Post by: Bumber on August 23, 2021, 11:00:17 am
I mean, if you'll believe a reddit infographic getting its data from the New York Times, 23 of the 50 worst counties for covid hospitalization per 100k people is in Florida. Have a gander? (https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/p6q0v9/oc_23_of_the_50_worst_counties_in_the_us_for/)
High in hospitalizations, low in deaths. Could be just that they've managed to keep it out of nursing homes thus far.
Post by: nenjin on August 23, 2021, 11:17:41 am
Although without any actual testing sites, I imagine those things are going like hot cakes.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 23, 2021, 04:29:46 pm
Since we're considering (both of us very skeptically) a family reunion next Sunday, maybe we should make appointments. Our concern mostly comes from the likely presence of a few anti-vaxxers though, not the vanishingly small chance that we'd be the carriers ourselves.
Questions I need to ask, I guess:
Is it the big church room again, or the house with a lot of tight squeezes?
Are masks... welcome? Will they expect hugs? There's a lot of nice outdoor space to unmask and chat.
I'd really like to see everyone after so long, and even catch up with some of them (since I don't Facebook heh). Dad's very much at risk though (despite vaccination, lots of risk factors) and I have to consider my housemate and all. I suppose I just need to know there are respected boundaries.
Edit: Agh like I'm not even sure if they're fully anti-vax or what, but they're Trump supporters and they have a *lot* of children. I just need more information.
Post by: Sirus on August 25, 2021, 03:00:53 pm
She's gotten tested, and I haven't heard about any results yet, but it sure sounds like covid to me.
Post by: nenjin on August 25, 2021, 04:21:14 pm
He didn't say what the consequences for not doing so were.
There is exactly one unvaccinated person left here out 28 people: my friend. Who has drank all the koolaid when it comes vaccine conspiracies and what not.
We're not a Right To Work state. So he can be fired for this.
I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.
I've about had it. Friendship or no friendship, this is fucking bullshit. I respect your right to be a moron but not when it puts me and our entire business at risk. Either get the vaccine or stay the fuck away, either working from home or quitting. I'm beyond coddling this fucking idiocy anymore.
Post by: Vector on August 25, 2021, 06:41:17 pm
Looks like the conference I was going to attend in October will be canceled, too. It's a shame.
Post by: LordBaal on August 25, 2021, 07:51:42 pm
Post by: Bumber on August 26, 2021, 06:06:13 am
I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.
Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?
Post by: None on August 26, 2021, 07:49:37 am
I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.
Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?
Not even close. Breakthroughs are still a small fraction of covid cases, never mind hospitalizations, and in most cases, the possible transmissible viral load in the vaccinated is smaller. Besides, getting it ASAP would mean full vaccine efficacy in two weeks, compared to the slight decrease in effectiveness the vaccinated from, say, early spring have, who have been vaccinated for months now.
Post by: Starver on August 26, 2021, 08:41:38 am
Chance of catching the virus when vaccinated < Chance of catching the virus when unvaccinated
(On being exposed, the naive body is never less likely to succumb than an informed version of the same body... And I'm discounting equal likelihood as tied up in the same issues as would make a vaccine as dangerous/ineffective in a very small proportion of cases that should be medically known in advance.)
Chances of passing on a virus caught while vaccinated <?/?> Chances of passing on a virus caught while unvaccinated.
(An unknown, but as subordinate probability within the proportional 'caught' chance below the 'exposure' chance it would need a very detectable uptick in onward transmissability in a vaccinated case, from a baseline low transmissability from natural and unprepared-for infection, to overturn the above. And if either were true then we'd see signs. Or even, in the case of the latter, there wouldn't have been a pandemic to see signs of. And, before anyone mentions it, you don't get "shedding" with any of the usual range of vaccines we're dealing with here.)
Chances of people oversocialising, given vaccinated vs. unvaccinated status, and allowing the pure per-exposure chances to be repeated at a high enough rate to outcompete the other status...? That's the question. Even if everybody is totally unvaccinated, if they never get exposed then they can't catch it. But then we know that at the 'height' of lockdowns people were still catching it, so people were never hermetically isolated that much. Post-lockdowns (v1) and pre-vaccine, people caught the thing even more, hence any repeat lockdowns/precautions asked of them. Post-vaccine, the further upblips occured in the young and unvaccinated, though whether that was because of youth (intrinsically less troubled to avoid risks, or more likely forgo the common sense the politicians insisted could replace hard-nosed legislative isolation measures) or vaccination (the lack of lowered catch-chance) or whatever mixture of the two, I don't have figures to say.
Needless to say, if the 27 vaccinated people now insist on greeting each other and all those they socialise with in the wider world with a mutual forced cough into each others' mouths, whilst the 28th and unvaccinated individual goes to work (and everywhere else!) in an Apollo spacesuit with its own launchpad-type air supply, then we know that the problem (at least all the problem that does not include use of space-nappies) is firmly upon the vaccinated.
In fact, with a pool of 27, it makes breakthrough proportionately more likely (at first contact) in that group. 99% protection (per individual) means 76% protection (for the whole group); 95% -> 25%; it quickly becomes all-but-certain as we try lower baseline unsusceptibilities for that group. But then the other 26 are still individually less likely to catch/propogate, and the 1 with 'background immunity' is still more individually vulnerable, either to catch from the unlucky group member(s) or to be the one to test their luck.
And, in an individual exempt from vaccination on medical grounds, perhaps they'd be taking special care. Vountarily distancing, in the office, masking, etc - or even arranging to work from home - while not congregating with others (especially not others like him) in social situations beyond/between the working hours.
But someone who chooses not to, I'll go out on a limb and say they regularly meet up with fellow no-vaxx-no-mask-no-way-no-how types, increasing their risk more than even with random encounters with maybe-vaxxed-maybe-not people.
I'd say that vaccination is not the be-all-and-end-all of protection. One must still be wary as you trust to the general wariness of others[1], but it helps, both you and those you inevitably come in contact with, and more so if they have tried to be so helpful too. You need to have better reasons to actively avoid vaccination than to consider the risks of careless vaccinated people to be higher than (or even nearly as high as) those of heedless unvaccinated ones. And we can discuss those 'better' reasons, of course.
[1] Last weekend, I met up with someone I hadn't seen for two years. Don't know him well, it was just at a place we had both been, and had last been at that self-same full two years ago, for the same purpose, and done some mutual task together with, that (skipping a year) we were now back again to do. He extended his hand to shake and I hesitated a moment but ultimately reached out to complete the gesture. I could feel my thoughts trying to balance the potentials (like a positronic brain balancing a very strong 2nd-Law command vs a vague and uncertain issue with 1st-Law imications) and it made me uncomfortable. I don't think he noticed. And I never asked him if he was vaccinated (nor discussed the issue). But, for both our sakes, I would probably have defaulted to a polite refusal, tempered with a joke, had I been not so certainly vaccinated in my mind. Using my long prior history of being an asocial introvert, even during the time when the only mask I ever needed was my fake-sincere smile that apparently also reaches up to my eyes. Am I now more at risk for having risk-shifted on the assumption of my vaccination being sufficient? More than a vaccinated-refusal, less than an unvaccinated-acquiescence... I would say also less than an unvaccinated refusal, too, so long as hand-hygiene is not severly lacking, given it's an airborne issue more than a bodily contact one, but I'm (once more) still not an habitually tactile person so I'd say this is a very minor vector compared to any airway carelessness I might succumb to by mere unmasked/mismasked proximity, even in the cold (overcast) light of the outdoors, downwind of who-knows-who. To analyse my own circumstances as objectively as possible.
Post by: LordBaal on August 26, 2021, 09:41:24 am
Post by: Vector on August 26, 2021, 10:47:53 am
Mi wife's arm is really swelled up and she can't move it properly. But she says it's getting better and not worst already.
Yeah, my arm was so painful and tender that I literally couldn't stand to have anything as heavy as a bedsheet on it. Couldn't pick up an empty coffee mug. But at least for me I woke up the next morning and it ended.
Hopefully she feels better soon. Being vaccinated is so, so worth it.
Post by: Doomblade187 on August 26, 2021, 11:09:47 am
In most states, the case surge is led by the unvaccinated population. That said, please continue being careful even once vaccinated.I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.
Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?
Post by: martinuzz on August 26, 2021, 11:59:16 am
People who have had corona recently, are protected 13 times as well against the delta variant than people who had 2 Pfizer shots.
People who had corona a long time ago are still protected 6-7 times better against infection with the delta variant than people who are fully vaccinated.
Ofcourse, the combination of being both vaccinated AND having had corona in the past offers even better protection.
It looks like that maybe we should start infecting people who are fully vaccinated and have no obvious underlying health risks with (non-delta) corona strains to boost their resistance. Although, that is ofcourse not without risk.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 26, 2021, 12:55:32 pm
The last Israeli preprint study to be widely circulated, foe example, used the wrong value when calculatibg case rates.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 26, 2021, 01:12:22 pm
It sounds likely though. It's important to note that the MRNA vaccine IS still protecting against Delta a bit. That could represent a much less deadly infection even if it's 13 times more likely to occur. Hence their suggestion of... exposing vaccinated people to the virus, I guess.
It's still strange to consider intentionally infecting people. I assume the benefits are that you can schedule around an intentional infection, quarantining and focusing on fighting it off, and that the resulting broader resistance may be worthwhile against future strains.
Post by: Zangi on August 26, 2021, 01:51:26 pm
Since there is that one chance the virus further evolves and really takes off, after being given so many opportunities to reroll attributes.
Post by: nenjin on August 26, 2021, 02:02:46 pm
Quote
People who have had corona recently, are protected 13 times as well against the delta variant than people who had 2 Pfizer shots.
Of course, even if actually true, you have to survive getting Corona first to cross that bridge.
Post by: None on August 26, 2021, 02:54:05 pm
Post by: nenjin on August 26, 2021, 04:20:18 pm
Post by: Starver on August 26, 2021, 04:44:59 pm
The difference is that "the whole Corona" presents a dozen or more (maybe a lot more, depending upon how it crumbles) biomarkers that the immune system can later spot and immediately jump on. And even if the spike in the new variant is radically different, there's going to be a lot of other common features.
The vaccines (not being whole-Corona, either weakened or 'killed' or mushed up) tend to just present (one, maybe more than one, version of) the spike, which doesn't give the same breadth of preparedness (edit: though it is probably the single best target to actually try to target, which is why we do).
Right now, Corona is being selected 'in the wild' for variations that do better, which with a spike-based vaccine in its trial-population (the 'terrain' across which it wishes to survive) means spike-mutations are more likely, as if to sneak by the cops with a photofit by wearing a different style of spectacles (depends on the cop, though works more than without).
It at least takes some of the selective pressures off other changes (the efficacy of the internal payload, for example) and booster shots newly trained to represent "Groucho glasses"-wearing spikes (as it were) can be brought in for those that are sufficiently escaping the previous narrow net and developed other more insidious[1] mutations by chance/mix'n'match.
I'm not happy with actively helping the virus find more solutions to get past the immune system (vaccination + live-inocculation, times a huge population = higher chance of breakthroughs that surprise everyone a little further down the line), but that's just notoriously unreliable statistical instinct and someone else (whose Chair of Immunology is more than the "arm-" variety) should probably run through the numbers and mechanisms involved, rather than liddle-old-me.
[1] Could be more subtle, for longer infectivity upon others, rather than actual greater illness and ultimately deadliness on a per-case basis. In fact, it's likely that'll be the long-term drift, the longer it goes without extinguishing itself by killing off its 'hosts'.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 26, 2021, 06:23:24 pm
New Israeli research shows that natural resistance against the virus works much better than the vaccines.
People who have had corona recently, are protected 13 times as well against the delta variant than people who had 2 Pfizer shots.
People who had corona a long time ago are still protected 6-7 times better against infection with the delta variant than people who are fully vaccinated.
Ofcourse, the combination of being both vaccinated AND having had corona in the past offers even better protection.
It looks like that maybe we should start infecting people who are fully vaccinated and have no obvious underlying health risks with (non-delta) corona strains to boost their resistance. Although, that is ofcourse not without risk.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1
((Yep, nenjin, you're in the right zone, SFAICT; you ninja, you...))
The difference is that "the whole Corona" presents a dozen or more (maybe a lot more, depending upon how it crumbles) biomarkers that the immune system can later spot and immediately jump on. And even if the spike in the new variant is radically different, there's going to be a lot of other common features.
The vaccines (not being whole-Corona, either weakened or 'killed' or mushed up) tend to just present (one, maybe more than one, version of) the spike, which doesn't give the same breadth of preparedness (edit: though it is probably the single best target to actually try to target, which is why we do).
Right now, Corona is being selected 'in the wild' for variations that do better, which with a spike-based vaccine in its trial-population (the 'terrain' across which it wishes to survive) means spike-mutations are more likely, as if to sneak by the cops with a photofit by wearing a different style of spectacles (depends on the cop, though works more than without).
It at least takes some of the selective pressures off other changes (the efficacy of the internal payload, for example) and booster shots newly trained to represent "Groucho glasses"-wearing spikes (as it were) can be brought in for those that are sufficiently escaping the previous narrow net and developed other more insidious[1] mutations by chance/mix'n'match.
I'm not happy with actively helping the virus find more solutions to get past the immune system (vaccination + live-inocculation, times a huge population = higher chance of breakthroughs that surprise everyone a little further down the line), but that's just notoriously unreliable statistical instinct and someone else (whose Chair of Immunology is more than the "arm-" variety) should probably run through the numbers and mechanisms involved, rather than liddle-old-me.
[1] Could be more subtle, for longer infectivity upon others, rather than actual greater illness and ultimately deadliness on a per-case basis. In fact, it's likely that'll be the long-term drift, the longer it goes without extinguishing itself by killing off its 'hosts'.
Worth noting that there PLENTY of reports to the contrary before the current waves. I've not looked at the paper (and I likely wont in the near future as I'm having a lot of more immediate problems to deal with these days :( ) but a priori I don't rule out that it's a statistical fluke (ie: prevention paradox (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevention_paradox#:~:text=The%20prevention%20paradox%20describes%20the,(of%20the%20same%20disease).))
Post by: Starver on August 26, 2021, 07:48:09 pm
And it is still better to be 'infected' with the vaccine[1] than the virus, and far, far better for anyone I might subsequently be in a position to onward-infect with the virus (but not at all with the vaccine - which is probably for the best, despite some logistical attractiveness if it could be).
Both suppress future susceptibility, but any actual advantage (as outlined) must be balanced by the trouble caused by untrammelled Covid in the very first instance.
The stats-juggling in the Israeli thing (which I haven't read, but heard of through other channels the other day) is the thing I'd be looking at if I was seriously wanting to comb through it. An old job of mine was IT support for clinical study analysis teams and I may still have a little of the knowledge about that which I gained through osmosis[2]. There are both 'tricks' and pitfalls that can be encountered when not working with quite enough vigour (and/or honesty, but I'm not going to make that suggestion) such as that Prevention Paradox but also Reversion To Mean, etc, and the general risks of underpowered studies being nitpicked for too many possible (and possibly baseless) correlations.
[1] Though I suffered a fever, the risk to me was much lower than with the real thing. And without any significant onward risks.
[2] Added to my specific A-Level maths'n'stats education, and came into physics/etc modules in higher education, though you could probably count that as 'Rusty' at best. ;)
Post by: Gentlefish on August 26, 2021, 08:41:25 pm
Thanks, COVID.
Post by: martinuzz on August 27, 2021, 09:42:46 am
Of those, only 4.6% were fully vaccinated.
7.4% were incompletely vaccinated.
88% were not vaccinated.
Vaccination prevents 95% of hospitalizations from Covid, and even 97% of ICU admissions.
People, get that vaccin if you can.
Post by: nenjin on August 27, 2021, 10:55:36 am
https://covid19criticalcare.com/
It's website that claims to have 10 doctors as part of the "Alliance", that offers hoodoo advice on taking Ivermectin and other "we don't want the vaccine what else can we take" bad guidance.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 27, 2021, 04:37:27 pm
Post by: Starver on August 27, 2021, 04:43:11 pm
From april to august this year, 15222 people were hospitalized with Covid in the Netherlands.Noting that you'd need to correlate admissions with the rate of full-/incomplete-/non-vaccination in the population as a whole to make that a decisive statistic in the face of anyone who tries to find wiggle-room. But I suspect you're in the right area.
Of those, only 4.6% were fully vaccinated.
7.4% were incompletely vaccinated.
88% were not vaccinated.
Vaccination prevents 95% of hospitalizations from Covid, and even 97% of ICU admissions.
People, get that vaccin if you can.
Hmm, LMGTFY (https://www.google.com/search?q=vaccination+rate+netherlands). Looks like 61.9% are fully vaccinated.
Plugging in populations given/implied to be involved, we can say (somewhat less than) 0.01% of the fully vaccinated in the general population are hospitalised, while (slightly more than) 0.22% of everyone else is hospitalised.
Or, putting it the other way, 65 per million of the vaccinated are affected, 2205(ish) of the unvaccinated. That's 33.7 times difference, or full vaccination gives you only 2.97% the chance of hospitalisation, compared to the not/partially vaccination group. Which might be interpretted as a 97(.03)% advantage, by one interpretation[1] (which probably isn't the one used behind the statement above).
(Obviously GIGO might apply, and I just took the simplest way of comparison at each stage. There's probably something Bayesian you could do to it with Poisson gamma beta-binomial doodads, but those things are far less easy to make someone else understand the logic of the formulae, especially as I haven't used them myself for the longest time.)
I remain convinced, of course. But it's nice to know.
[1] I always get rather annoyed with statements like "<foo> is three times less than <bar>". Is <foo> a third of <bar>? Or is <foo> a quarter (1 <foo> for every 4 <bar>)? Or is <foo> a negative value twice the magnitude of <bar>'s positive value (<foo>=<bar>*(1-3)=<bar>*(-2))? Or... well, you get the idea. And percentages can be missused grossly. Take 10% from a value, then add 10% to what you now have, and you get 99% of the original value, not 100%. The same also happens if you start by adding 10%, then remove 10% of the (new) value again. :P
Post by: LordBaal on August 28, 2021, 07:07:10 am
My wife's arm is good already, thankfully.
Post by: Sirus on August 28, 2021, 11:58:08 am
Now we're trying to figure out if we might have been exposed, since we saw them in person earlier this month/late last month. Might have to get tested for the first time, we'll see.
ETA: Aunt's going on the ventilator. Hopefully it's just temporary.
Post by: Bumber on August 30, 2021, 05:16:50 pm
I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.
Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?
Not even close. Breakthroughs are still a small fraction of covid cases, never mind hospitalizations, and in most cases, the possible transmissible viral load in the vaccinated is smaller. Besides, getting it ASAP would mean full vaccine efficacy in two weeks, compared to the slight decrease in effectiveness the vaccinated from, say, early spring have, who have been vaccinated for months now.
Here's a study the CDC is citing:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm
And a preprint study showing viral loads are similar:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v3
Post by: None on August 30, 2021, 10:06:19 pm
Quote from: CDC
Testing identified the Delta variant in 90% of specimens from 133 patients. Cycle threshold values were similar among specimens from patients who were fully vaccinated and those who were not.Which sounds like values from people with a significant infection while vaccinated are similar to people with a significant value without vaccination, which says nothing about the efficacy of vaccination, but the severity of infection? I'm not sufficiently equipped to make calls on medical jargon.
Quote from: link two
This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
Post by: Gentlefish on August 31, 2021, 07:16:50 am
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the otherwise-preventable deaths due to lack of ICU space greatly outpace actual COVID deaths.
Post by: Starver on August 31, 2021, 09:49:02 am
That this involves self-selecting (insofar as their circumstances) badly infected people, from amongst all the people who avoided or silently survived or got through 'happily' their respective possible infections (where the vaccine helps in that regard), should of course be considered before coming to the more severe conclusion.
And I may have misread the intended messages, too. Once I detected signs that they weren't what I think I should have been argued about (the argument as initially stated, would be momentous if accurate) I lost interest in looking through the finer detail to see if there was anything that would refute the point or else convert me to the cause of the Righteous But Oppressed. I didn't intend on piling in. (Not sure if this post counts as doing so. Not intended as such, but I'm worrying myself now, and second-guessing my own intentions, even. Darnit.)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 31, 2021, 04:35:11 pm
I hope he pulls his head out of his ass and just gets fucking vaccinated. 6 months ago when the Delta variant and breakthroughs weren't a thing, it was like "haha, look at that dumbass, hope he doesn't catch it." Now he's once again selfishly putting everyone in the building at risk, AND HE REFUSES TO WORK FROM HOME.
Given the breakthoughs, aren't the vaccinated nearly as much a risk to everyone else as he is?
Not even close. Breakthroughs are still a small fraction of covid cases, never mind hospitalizations, and in most cases, the possible transmissible viral load in the vaccinated is smaller. Besides, getting it ASAP would mean full vaccine efficacy in two weeks, compared to the slight decrease in effectiveness the vaccinated from, say, early spring have, who have been vaccinated for months now.
Here's a study the CDC is citing:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7031e2.htm
And a preprint study showing viral loads are similar:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v3
That doesnt address what he said. As it's less likely to get infected being vaccinated, it's also less likely to pass it on.
For that matter the risk of domestic transmission was shown to be lower with the vaccinated
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717
Furthermore: vaccinated people stay infectious for shorter periods of time.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1
Quote
PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were similar between both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups at diagnosis, but viral loads decreased faster in vaccinated individuals.
In fact, the paper you linked acknowledges this other study, and its results. It doesnt make any statement regarding same because in THEIR study participants were only tested once
Quote
Our study has at least three important limitations. First, we have only one specimen from most individuals, and therefore we cannot know the trajectory of viral loads at the time of testing. Indeed, a study of Delta infection dynamics suggests that viral loads decline more rapidly in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals, as one might expect [7].
The takehome message is not that vaccines dont work, or that the risk is the same from a vaccinated person as an unvaccinated one. The takehome message is that the risk is not 0 and thus more mitigation strategies, including boosters, masks, and social distancing, are needed.
Post by: LordBaal on September 01, 2021, 06:58:22 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 01, 2021, 07:47:58 am
Post by: Starver on September 01, 2021, 08:00:01 am
8)
Post by: LordBaal on September 01, 2021, 08:25:26 am
Cuba as a whole lacks the infrastructure to develop, less produce large ammounts, of well, anything, even more so something as advanced as a rushed vaccine to a new virus which larger and developed countries struggled with.
Even more suspicious the fact that the mafia that runs this country openly stated Venezuelans were the first test of the thing.
My wife got the first sputnik shot a week ago. Since yesterday she has been feeling bad, heavy head, body ache and now is praising the goodness of the soviet and claiming death to capitalism hahaha... that last part is a joke but she has been feeling bad and today drowsiness and diarrhea joined the symptoms.
Post by: LordBaal on September 02, 2021, 01:59:19 pm
I just got my first shot of SinoPharm, it was pretty quick actually, and 迄今 I have not any adverse symptoms...
I'll keep you posted guys.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on September 02, 2021, 02:48:21 pm
Sorry for the double post.is SinoPharm a new one? I only here of J&J, Moderna, and Physer/Phyzer(not sure how it’s spelt) also what do the symbols mean? I’ll bold the ones I’m confused about since I can’t ty[e them
I just got my first shot of SinoPharm, it was pretty quick actually, and 迄今 I have not any adverse symptoms...
I'll keep you posted guys.
Post by: Ziusudra on September 02, 2021, 03:15:54 pm
(Well, technically SinoPharm is the company that makes the vaccine.)
Post by: Starver on September 02, 2021, 03:27:42 pm
(
@NG: The joke was that LB's wife has been
Sinopharm (one or other of two similar extant vaccines named for its developing company) is basically China's gift to 'the global South' (pretty much literally, check the maps on where it is authorised for use!), as well as for use in its home country, just as Sputnik is Russia's. It is also a deactivated-virus shot (Russia is an Adenovirus 'spike-holder') which in theory make it very good at granting resistance, but hopefully is being done right.
The US has Pfizer (that's how you spell it), J&J and Moderna (and others?) but either hasn't been too keen on or was never offered the 2nd-World Vaccines, which are instead going to countries like LB's (the 1st-World ones seem to be being hogged by their home nations and friends in the Global North ('the West', in other words, only slightly more inaccurately).
And, with that, I also hope that LB has no trouble getting the Sinopharm/Sputnik doses taken into proper account in his intended future Canadian adventure, as described in another thread... In fact, all the best for that in general, as I really didn't want to post such a trivial message there just for the sake of PTWing.
)
Post by: Starver on September 02, 2021, 03:44:34 pm
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on September 02, 2021, 04:31:50 pm
Post by: LordBaal on September 02, 2021, 04:53:04 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 02, 2021, 06:32:44 pm
What exact;y happens with a deactivated virus? Is it the capsid without the nucleic acids? Hollowed out?It depends on how you deactivate it.
Post by: Starver on September 02, 2021, 07:15:36 pm
They can be 'whole virus' (though killed[1], perhaps by heat treatment or chemicals - I haven't checked what for the Sinopharm(s)) or 'split virus' where detergents actually fragment it to present as much (dismembered) virus-'body' to the immune system as possible. Either way, you'll get 'spike' resistance (natively) but probably loads of other responses that are useful.
Purify/concentrate the more useful components of a Split Virus soup and you get a 'subunit vaccine' (there are some of these in the fight against Covid, but not widely accepted). Spikes are sure to be in the mix, I imagine. I suppose you could even painstakingly construct such fragments outwith any original virus, but not sure this has been used for any of these "potentially millions of doses" treatments, as there's a lot of scaling issues.
Because anything not totally 'Live' is harder to discover as a Pathogen(-fragment) Of Interest, they tend to add further stuff to 'irritate' the immune system/wave and shout "Hey, look at us! We're invaders! Learn to fear us! *Ouch*"... This has been (minute amounts of) mercury, but it's
The Sputnik, as with my own Oxford/AZ, uses a modified Adenovirus (chimp for AZ, not sure about Sputnik) which is non-replicating but contains "make bits of Covid" instructions that it can push into cells, let the cells make the bits and then present them to the immune system as per a concentrated split-soup (or nearly so) but more controllable once they have the AdV down pat. One disadvantage is that many people have adenovirus-exposure already so might be jumped on a little too quickly. (That my fever kicked in after several hours might indicate it was response to the message, as finally read out, not the initial messenger. Based only on guesses, though.) What they (hope to) produce for immune-training will vary, but probably include spikes as priority. I'm not sure what stops the instructions being followed (once started) but must be related to standard DNA/(m|t)RNA shuffling. (It never gets into the genome, just mingles with the transferred instructions that came from there... I don't know as much about this as I should, but there must be a time-out/half-life to moderate any internally-slurved instruction not regularly given a repeated expression.)
Then DNA/RNA capsid vaccines do the same sort of thing as above but with a lipid-monolayer 'nanoparticle' container tailored to deliver just the blueprints into target cells, for them to distribute, without any virus in any traditional sense. Pfizer codes I think just for the spikes, which the body happily makes (https://xkcd.com/2446/) so long as (I think) they are still intact in the cell's endosomic organelles they get sucked into to start the work (again, never gets near your genes).
I'm sure there's more to know about each, but that's a less-than-summarised summary mostly from memory/extrapolation. Someone will doubtless be along to correct my schoolboy errors. ;)
[1] A tricky word to use for a virus, that is not ever fully 'alive', but it seems to be the best to use.
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on September 02, 2021, 10:56:21 pm
Post by: Starver on September 02, 2021, 11:32:46 pm
(That or laser-sharp severing/smothering of just the undesirable replicative genetic code. Which is something they might do to get the likes of ChAdOx1 used in the AZ.)
But I'm not as read up on who-does-what enough to be an authority on this. Read the above as a half-educated guess. It takes a lot more to be an immunologist than remembering scraps of info and tying them together with 'logic' that has never been applied practically. ;) (It's getting on to 40 years since I formally was taught any biology, even, and I always prefered physics/chemistry at the time. Mostly I hated the incessant drawing, I suppose.)
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on September 03, 2021, 12:15:36 am
Post by: None on September 03, 2021, 09:47:47 am
ChAdOx1
this sounds like some eleven year old edgelord's runescape account name
Post by: Starver on September 03, 2021, 10:09:16 am
[xxx~=ChAdOx1=~xxx………] This username is already taken!ChAdOx1
this sounds like some eleven year old edgelord's runescape account name
Post by: dragdeler on September 03, 2021, 11:36:39 am
Post by: martinuzz on September 03, 2021, 02:32:31 pm
So kiddos, don't think "meh, I'm young and strong, covid will not hurt me". You're wrong. Get vaccinated.
Post by: Starver on September 03, 2021, 02:45:30 pm
Post by: Vector on September 03, 2021, 03:45:15 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on September 03, 2021, 04:04:38 pm
Of course I still don't know if that was Covid, but it certainly was a fever.
Post by: Vector on September 03, 2021, 04:13:08 pm
Post by: LordBaal on September 03, 2021, 04:26:14 pm
At any rate, hope you get better Vector, at not boiling temperatures.
I have a horrid body ache that has been creeping all day long. And cant lift my vaccined arm. The rest is fine, no head ache or fever, oh and know I know Kung-fu, so there is that!
Post by: Starver on September 03, 2021, 04:56:00 pm
Its funny to read low fever at 99 degrees... 99 is just a degree under boiling point of water at sea level.You just have to convert. 99 degrees is a tad under 1.73 radians, if it helps.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
(I hope everyone's current temperature always remains somewhere around 94.8°D (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delisle_scale), and never anywhere near as hot as 0°D or ever as cold as 150°D!)
Post by: LordBaal on September 03, 2021, 05:47:02 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 03, 2021, 06:55:47 pm
Post by: Iduno on September 03, 2021, 10:46:46 pm
Its funny to read low fever at 99 degrees... 99 is just a degree under boiling point of water at sea level.You just have to convert. 99 degrees is a tad under 1.73 radians, if it helps.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
(I hope everyone's current temperature always remains somewhere around 94.8°D (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delisle_scale), and never anywhere near as hot as 0°D or ever as cold as 150°D!)
Yes, but human temperature varies by about 2 degrees either way.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 04, 2021, 05:18:29 am
Endure it, the side effects dont last very long.
I have a horrid body ache that has been creeping all day long. And cant lift my vaccined arm. The rest is fine, no head ache or fever, oh and know I know Kung-fu, so there is that!
Here is a testimonial from another guy who got the Russian vaccine
https://youtu.be/vN2eQ_CKZT8
Post by: LordBaal on September 04, 2021, 07:01:18 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 04, 2021, 08:57:57 pm
Post by: Sirus on September 04, 2021, 09:21:08 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on September 04, 2021, 09:30:07 pm
Post by: Vector on September 05, 2021, 10:25:38 pm
I'm fine now!
Post by: Rolan7 on September 06, 2021, 12:46:45 am
Post by: Vector on September 06, 2021, 10:44:23 am
(One of my friends just got her third shot. Protect the immunocompromised people who you love! And those you don't!)
Also we're below 30% ICU capacity across the country, apparently, and 0% in some places (e.g. Oregon). Do yer part to keep people out of the ICU so that if you get hit by a car or something, there's a bed for ya.
Post by: LordBaal on September 06, 2021, 12:25:08 pm
And after vaccination just keep the sanitary measures. If most population were vaccined and we keep the measures for a little while the virus would actually die out.
Post by: dragdeler on September 06, 2021, 12:38:36 pm
Even my wife and I got the commrade vaccine, c'mon you unvaccined reader, just do it.
And after vaccination just keep the sanitary measures. If most population were vaccined and we keep the measures for a little while the virus would actually die out.
Too much common sense. We should call it exotic sense.
Post by: LordBaal on September 06, 2021, 12:39:59 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on September 06, 2021, 02:48:03 pm
And after vaccination just keep the sanitary measures. If most population were vaccined and we keep the measures for a little while the virus would actually die out.Sadly, it might not - it seems to hav found new animal reservoirs (https://wildlife.org/wild-deer-contract-coronavirus/) that can keep reinfecting people.
But some good news is they are testing a vaccine (https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2021/06/22/humans-are-now-testing-the-armys-new-covid-vaccine/) for the whole family corona viruses.
Post by: LordBaal on September 06, 2021, 06:07:46 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 06, 2021, 06:32:03 pm
Yes, because people regularly go to deer concerts.And after vaccination just keep the sanitary measures. If most population were vaccined and we keep the measures for a little while the virus would actually die out.Sadly, it might not - it seems to hav found new animal reservoirs (https://wildlife.org/wild-deer-contract-coronavirus/) that can keep reinfecting people.
But some good news is they are testing a vaccine (https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-army/2021/06/22/humans-are-now-testing-the-armys-new-covid-vaccine/) for the whole family corona viruses.
If everyone was vaccinated and we were sensible for a couple of months this crap would peter out. As it is, odds are we'll keep getting waves until between vaccines and reinfections there's enough background immunity to safely ignore it (as opposed to now in which its being unsafely ignored)
Post by: Ziusudra on September 06, 2021, 07:14:19 pm
Yes, because people regularly go to deer concerts.Thinking that a majority of people could act sensibly for more than a week is not very sensible. And it's not just the deer and it only take one interaction and every infection is a chance for a variant that gets around existing immunity.
If everyone was vaccinated and we were sensible for a couple of months this crap would peter out. As it is, odds are we'll keep getting waves until between vaccines and reinfections there's enough background immunity to safely ignore it (as opposed to now in which its being unsafely ignored)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 07, 2021, 03:08:15 am
Quote
Thinking that a majority of people could act sensibly for more than a week is not very sensible.This is a bit of a circular argument, but granted, prople wont act sensibly
Quote
And it's not just the deer and it only take one interaction and every infection is a chance for a variant that gets around existing immunityNo, but there are not many clinical reservoirs (or for that matter documented new infections from animals). I dont know what you mean with interaction there... And every infection is a (small)chance for a new strain, but obviously not every infection is a new strain.
Besides the scenario about which we are talking is precisedly to play it safe to minimize infections to avoid all that. Which is worth noting that several countries have done successfuly. Again, the problem with infections is exponential growth... but decreases are also exponential. If you prevent one infection who in turn would infect 6 people who in turn... you see my point. Nipping it in the bud helps.
That most of the world is doing the insane thing of letting it run its course doesnt mean its the only option. I'll grant you that sensible or not its the scenario our dear leaders have accepted, and thus at this point the most inportant thing is personal safety while we wait for this shit to finally end :/
Post by: Starver on September 07, 2021, 03:18:00 am
In some ways it became both more and less useful as an argument, as time went on.
Anyway, if deer are a problem reservoir, stop people hunting them, for a year. I'm sure the kind of people who do that will understand, and it's not as if anyone's trying to perfectly reasonably cut down on their guns, right? ;)
Post by: King Zultan on September 07, 2021, 03:21:32 am
Yes, because people regularly go to deer concerts.I'm one of the people who goes to those, it's not for everyone but I like them.
Post by: McTraveller on September 07, 2021, 08:09:25 am
Anyway, if deer are a problem reservoir, stop people hunting them, for a year.
Many places will have a host of different issues if you do this. (Just do a search for "results of overpopulation of deer" for a hint at what this can do to an ecosystem.)
What's that quote? "For every problem there is a solution that is simple, elegant, and wrong" (H.L. Menken)?
Post by: dragdeler on September 07, 2021, 08:11:41 am
Post by: Starver on September 07, 2021, 03:43:49 pm
I already thought of that.Anyway, if deer are a problem reservoir, stop people hunting them, for a year.
Many places will have a host of different issues if you do this. (Just do a search for "results of overpopulation of deer" for a hint at what this can do to an ecosystem.)
What's that quote? "For every problem there is a solution that is simple, elegant, and wrong" (H.L. Menken)?
You also should increase the numbers of wolves, mountain lions, alligators, etc, as appropriate[1] to the habitat.
I challenge you to argue that I am being simple, elegant and wrong, with this suggestion.
[1] Or not! The world surely needs to see a Rocky Mountain Alligator, as a key apex predator...
Post by: Rolan7 on September 07, 2021, 04:17:38 pm
meh it's the tale hunters like to tell,meanwhile many places feed the deer in winter so they have something to shootey shooteyI think there's truth to it, anectodaly I've seen some pretty intense deer overpopulation on the suburban edge of a city. On the other hand, even though I haven't heard of feeding, local hunting schedules are obviously designed to keep the populations reasonably high for continued sport (particularly by restricting doe-shooting to certain days).
I'm okay with it as long as the meat gets eaten (I used to help certain family members with that part) but the populations are kept artificially high purely to keep the sport fun. So eh, it's vastly more humane than factory farming.
I guess somewhat more on topic, I'm still kinda upset about the Primus concert that visited recently. My dad and I almost got tickets, but I'm glad we didn't. I assumed the ampitheater would be like... half capacity for social distancing, or something. Very much not the case. I managed to sneak a couple pictures through a hole in the curtain wall.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I was already in a pretty weird sad-nostalgic mood going through the downtown nightlife, seeing all the restaurants with their packed "outdoor" seating enclosed by plastic sheets and such. I can certainly understand people taking such a risk occasionally to preserve their sanity... guilty... but everything seemed as busy as it ever had been.
*sigh*
It was depressing, my dad helped me feel better somehow, the music was nice, and it isn't the fault of the people having fun any more than it's my fault. There are people at fault, very deliberately spreading information they know is false, and... like, as a baseline thing, we should probably get them to stop actively doing it? Can we at least do that? They deserve the Hague, but maybe we could remove the profit motive for shilling for a respiratory virus.
Literal. Fucking. Death cult. But also they're just following the money, agh.
Post by: dragdeler on September 07, 2021, 07:33:14 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on September 07, 2021, 07:54:03 pm
Hanging out with him can be awkward sometimes, there's a *lot* of stuff and... stuff, but I feel like we both recovered some willpower points from that whole evening. I mean- well both the one years ago and the one a few days ago.
Anyway yeah offering deadly medical advice IS actually a crime and the people doing it should be put in jail (or simply issued C&D) so they stop hurting people, and people should be afraid to platform them uncritically (AKA be complicit in the very real death and suffering they cause). Maybe you can't prove they're lying, so let's just go for deadly criminal incompetence and shut them down.
(A couple more family members with Covid recently, probably caught it from their kids. I'm not feeling particularly both-sidesy about this.
Post by: King Zultan on September 08, 2021, 04:17:21 am
Post by: LordBaal on September 08, 2021, 05:59:31 am
Post by: Vector on September 08, 2021, 10:11:28 am
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2021, 10:16:56 am
(While I'm here adding more noise to signal, just gonna say I'm glad I was injected into my left arm, both times, or else I'd have felt a right prick.)
Post by: dragdeler on September 08, 2021, 10:29:53 am
Post by: LordBaal on September 08, 2021, 10:31:34 am
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 08, 2021, 12:40:54 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on September 08, 2021, 01:25:10 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on September 08, 2021, 09:31:30 pm
My favorite was up in the mountains, we snuck into an empty football stadium and watched a baseball game from the top of the fully dark stands - to see a baseball game from reverse. We were like, right behind the floodlights. And despite being an inherently bad game, this particularly match was really close with a final inning upset, and I unironically enjoyed it.
he he, I know that spot.
Post by: King Zultan on September 09, 2021, 01:37:06 am
Post by: Starver on September 09, 2021, 10:02:41 am
edit: Or maybe not, as being discussed below
Post by: Bumber on September 09, 2021, 09:30:49 pm
Some passively dangerous idiots branch out into actively dangerous idiocy... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-58499899)
Could be a hoax. Someone on twitter did some digging: https://twitter.com/troonpilled/status/1436001194627960835
Source is definitely biased, but the info dug up is enough to be suspicious of the one who reported it.
Evidence wasn't preserved, but the authorities have CCTV footage, so I guess we'll find out one way or another.
Post by: Starver on September 10, 2021, 03:19:03 am
Could be a hoax. Someone on twitter did some digging: https://twitter.com/troonpilled/status/1436001194627960835I'll say there might be something to that debunk, fair enough and all credit. I have seen more credible and actual versions of this boobytrapping going on (historically, and not the one linked to also in that thread) so I know it's a 'thing', with copycats and/or false-flag copycats probably already waiting for their own pro-/anti-issue actions. It already looked like a substandard attack attempt (questionable wound notwithstanding) that might do more harm as inspiration for more competant implementations.
Source is definitely biased, but the info dug up is enough to be suspicious of the one who reported it.
Evidence wasn't preserved, but the authorities have CCTV footage, so I guess we'll find out one way or another.
Tell you what, though: some of the commentators in that debunk-thread (seizing gleefully at the debunk) would be ripe contenders for a hide-and-ignore list, if I had one to maintain, as too far down their own misguided rabbithole. I had a good and comprehensive read through[1] and there are three key objections to the story, yet it is taken as "It's all a lie, everything, black is white and white is black" (by some) quite irrationally.
Not sure it's created any deluded "you're all just deluded!" people, but the worst thing is that it's bolstered those with that tendency to them already. (Also not too happy with wishing (theoretical) harm back, @dd, I have to say.) I'll retract things for now, but no apologies for railing against passively idiotic people, and there ate plenty who have done more for their cause.
[1] Not had a good shufti at any haterful Presidential tweet-tree for a while, and I was perhaps slightly missing the feeling of braincells dying in the process. But never let it be said that I stick entirely to my own choice of echochamber.
Post by: dragdeler on September 10, 2021, 12:36:15 pm
Post by: martinuzz on September 10, 2021, 12:57:13 pm
They explain their new stance by saying that the level of vaccinated people is high enough to warrant this (83% of all Danes of age 12 and older have been vaccinated).
Post by: Gentlefish on September 10, 2021, 01:25:39 pm
Denmark has declared Covid no longer a threat, a 'normal disease like all others', and has withdrawn all corona restrictions.
They explain their new stance by saying that the level of vaccinated people is high enough to warrant this (83% of all Danes of age 12 and older have been vaccinated).
This... Worries me tbh. Denmark why. It's not like it stops at the borders.
Post by: Rolan7 on September 10, 2021, 02:19:28 pm
Quote
This shit makes me mad: don't wish harm onto harmful people even if they don't exist. I don't think it's highminded but cowardly. I'd rather burn and crash right here right now than answer the inevitable "where were you?" with "it was complicated but at least I didn't do anything rash". Nuance ain't shit if people explicitly do not want to understand.Hear hear. I listened to a good debate about this recently. Yeah, those hard-working and terrified people who are taken in by vaccine conspiracy theories deserve our sympathy (that was the debate question). But those who are profiting off these conspiracies, knowing that they're lying, are literal murderers and need to be stopped. I don't support the death penalty, period, but they have blood on their hands and we can't let them keep getting people killed.
I know it's hard to prove that someone is lying instead of just stupid, but I have 0 sympathy for any rich person promoting this shit. With all that leisure time, they have no excuse. (I maybe have a little sympathy for the My Pillow guy because he seems like a true believer, and is burning his fortune rather than profiting)
Post by: Rolan7 on September 10, 2021, 02:52:20 pm
Post by: dragdeler on September 10, 2021, 03:31:37 pm
My first reflex is to flinch and duck away into the shadows at the prospect of a real fight. I'm particularly averse to seeing head trauma. I don't even believe violence is a valid pedagogic tool. And the spiral of violence is futile and there is allways somebody with a bigger gun and yadda yadda. However I do believe some adults should be reminded that violence is real and can manifest at any moment, and they would be well served to stay in their lane and/or think about the consequences of their actions, because a permanent disability or death is more real than the thin veil of civilisation or settlement payments or any kind of moral highground.
Post by: Iduno on September 10, 2021, 07:49:39 pm
Post by: scriver on October 06, 2021, 02:21:31 pm
They wanted to mark that it's not a major issue but still enpugh to be takem into account, since these people could be given the other vaccines instead.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 06, 2021, 03:57:30 pm
The Swedish Works of Healing Means announced today that they're stopping the use of the Moderna vaccine for people below age 30 because of the prevalence of consequent health issues that I've already forgotten the names of and will have to look up and edit in. [Edit] Inflammation of the heart muscle and inflammation of the heart sack [/edit]
They wanted to mark that it's not a major issue but still enpugh to be takem into account, since these people could be given the other vaccines instead.
Hold on, they stopped using the Moderna vaccine because of the article about myocarditis that turned out to be WRONG? (https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-study-error-anti-vaxxers-1.6188806) ???
Post by: Frumple on October 06, 2021, 04:11:55 pm
Post by: Starver on October 06, 2021, 04:51:44 pm
I could be wrong, but I could see a garden-path literal translation landing on Agency->Means and Public->Works. Though (by eye, pulling into my native English rather than pushing out of a native Svenska) it looks more like "People's Health Agency [,The]" (and being Swedish is implicit).
Spoiler: Linguistic geekout (click to show/hide)
Anyway, even my first guess, prior to my amateur etymological efforts, is a stretch. (The first English news references by the few news agencies to have Swedish+Moderna articles just talk about the "Swedish health agency", or similar.) Could be a lesser/subordinate/tighter-scoped body that is the Means one.
Post by: feelotraveller on October 06, 2021, 10:20:13 pm
The Swedish Works of Healing Means announced today that they're stopping the use of the Moderna vaccine for people below age 30 because of the prevalence of consequent health issues that I've already forgotten the names of and will have to look up and edit in. [Edit] Inflammation of the heart muscle and inflammation of the heart sack [/edit]
They wanted to mark that it's not a major issue but still enpugh to be takem into account, since these people could be given the other vaccines instead.
Hold on, they stopped using the Moderna vaccine because of the article about myocarditis that turned out to be WRONG? (https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/covid-19-vaccine-study-error-anti-vaxxers-1.6188806) ???
No they made the decision based on a Nordic study.
But probably an untimely excess of caution that will generate significant harm when miscontrued in anti-vaxxer circles. So fair enough with the wtf-ing.
Post by: King Zultan on October 07, 2021, 02:48:25 am
Also I talked to some family friends a few days ago then found out that the day after I talked to them one of them had tested positive for Covid and today the other also tested positive, which is bad for them since they're both older and for my people since I've been around them.
Post by: wierd on October 07, 2021, 04:00:14 am
Multiple initial studies have linked actual covid infection with both male and female infertility, as the ACE2 receptor (which is the receptor the virus uses to enter a cell) is heavily expressed in human gonad tissue, and it does basically what it does to lungs, in your reproductive bits.
It is not yet known if childhood infections can cause lasting reproductive harm later in life. Research is on-going, and data likely wont be available on that until cohort studies are conducted much later in the future.
Regardless, this nonsense about refusing to vaccinate, or to vaccinate their children?
It's gonna cause a lot of problems for the Right in the coming decades.
Post by: delphonso on October 07, 2021, 04:27:51 am
Post by: scriver on October 07, 2021, 09:06:04 am
What even is the Swedish Works of Healing Means? Google pulls up nothing, as near as I can tell.
At a guess (and not finding any other group, with just the barest Googling/Wikipedianing) it might be the Folkhälsomyndigheten, which seems to be "Public Health Agency of Sweden" in a more considered translation.
I could be wrong, but I could see a garden-path literal translation landing on Agency->Means and Public->Works. Though (by eye, pulling into my native English rather than pushing out of a native Svenska) it looks more like "People's Health Agency [,The]" (and being Swedish is implicit).Spoiler: Linguistic geekout (click to show/hide)
Anyway, even my first guess, prior to my amateur etymological efforts, is a stretch. (The first English news references by the few news agencies to have Swedish+Moderna articles just talk about the "Swedish health agency", or similar.) Could be a lesser/subordinate/tighter-scoped body that is the Means one.
Swedish Works of Healing Means is my direct translation of Läkemedelsverket (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_Products_Agency_(Sweden)) (Läke- = Healing; -medel = means (to the thing it's affixed to); verk = works, as in waterworks, but also authorities by extension; and -et is another definitive article postscript). It's s much more fun translation than "the Medical Product Agency".
But yes I was jokeslating the wrong agency anyway (Läkemedelsverket was mentioned in the article I read so I guess it just stuck in my head), the correct one would be Folkhälsomyndigheten, the Folk Health Agency.
Quote
Though (by eye, pulling into my native English rather than pushing out of a native Svenska) it looks more like "People's Health Agency [,The]" (and being Swedish is implicit).Spoiler: Linguistic geekout (click to show/hide)
Anyway, even my first guess, prior to my amateur etymological efforts, is a stretch. (The first English news references by the few news agencies to have Swedish+Moderna articles just talk about the "Swedish health agency", or similar.) Could be a lesser/subordinate/tighter-scoped body that is the Means one.
Very good! I'm not sure about the "diet of worms" part though, I'm not familiar with that reference. Myndighet does mean "authority", my first instinct was that it was related to mun, mouth (with the implication of "having a voice") but I had to look it before posting and it turns out it's related to mund, an archaic word for hand. It's built off of myndig (authority-related) and -het (directly translates to "-hood").
But probably an untimely excess of caution that will generate significant harm when miscontrued in anti-vaxxer circles. So fair enough with the wtf-ing.
I'd say the opposite, are you suggesting the government should disregard higher chances of ill side effects for a part of the populace, when they have the means to avoid this higher risk by simply redistributing vaccine use to not use that one vaccine at fault on this group?
If anything, this shows that the authorities is taking possible side effects from these new vaccines seriously and is willing to change their policy as new evidence presents itself, and that they don't want to repeat the mistakes of the swine flu vaccine. This is the kind of thing that builds trust in authorities.
I think that's optimistic. The endemic virus is now an issue for everyone, and those who recognize the serious health implications will no longer support the Right, who increasingly rule from minority. They'll "shed the chaff," so to speak.
The idea that anti-vax is somehow a right-wing thing just because a bunch of American politicians have embraced it is a grave misconception to begin with. Anti-vax sentiment is grown in anti-authoritarian ground, across the left-right spectrum. There's plenty of new age hippies and government-distrustfuls in there who'd vote "left" on nearly every wing-defining issue.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on October 07, 2021, 09:38:36 am
Post by: nenjin on October 07, 2021, 09:55:10 am
Post by: LordBaal on October 07, 2021, 10:00:16 am
A bit of a side news but apparently the malaria vaccine is done and will be deployed in africa first. That is a huge nice step and will save many lives.
Post by: scriver on October 07, 2021, 10:03:15 am
Must have been why Trump was booed for suggesting getting vaxxed. All those left wingers at his rallies.
Did I say all anti-vax people were left-wing or did I say it's a thing across the spectrum?
Post by: LordBaal on October 07, 2021, 10:16:50 am
Post by: Starver on October 07, 2021, 12:17:37 pm
I'm not sure about the "diet of worms" part though, I'm not familiar with that reference.
Well, the Diet Of Worms (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diet_of_Worms) is an old (older than me!) British schoolboy 'joke' reference (a valid reference, but just sounds like an annelidivore lifestyle), that I doubt anybody who doesn't choose classics - or from very traditionalist educational establishments - even gets to giggle at, these days.
Quote
Myndighet does mean "authority", my first instinct was that it was related to mun, mouth (with the implication of "having a voice") but I had to look it before posting and it turns out it's related to mund, an archaic word for hand. It's built off of myndig (authority-related) and -het (directly translates to "-hood").[/i]It doesn't sound like (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diet_(assembly)#Etymology) it's so closely related, and indeed it looks like the 'pun understanding' isn't even that coincidental. But I'll accept being right for the wrong reasons with the good grace[1] it deserves...
[1] <runs around yelling and hooting, waving flags and blowing air-horns in people's faces> :P
Post by: scriver on October 07, 2021, 12:32:21 pm
Post by: dragdeler on October 07, 2021, 01:28:22 pm
Mündigkeit does stem from mouth. So I guess myndighet can be counted as a false friend -> words that lend themselves towards incorrect interpretations.
Post by: Frumple on October 07, 2021, 01:30:06 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 07, 2021, 01:52:35 pm
Apparently we are going to have a third wave of covid here. And Comrade Wife only has the first shot of the Russian vaccine.
A bit of a side news but apparently the malaria vaccine is done and will be deployed in africa first. That is a huge nice step and will save many lives.
The malaria vaccine just approved by the WHO is an older project that is only likely to be about 40% effective. A priceless reduction, but not the gamechanger the MRNA project just might be
Post by: LordBaal on October 07, 2021, 03:32:45 pm
Post by: scriver on October 07, 2021, 05:52:55 pm
Post by: delphonso on October 07, 2021, 07:52:24 pm
Must have been why Trump was booed for suggesting getting vaxxed. All those left wingers at his rallies.
Did I say all anti-vax people were left-wing or did I say it's a thing across the spectrum?
This is quite salient. I think a lot of American anti-vax came from the health craze (particularly the scams; organics, health suppliments, holistics). I mean you brand an immunity as "all natural" and people will hop on it.
It bares mentioning the pro-Covid anti-vax stuff is of a different ilk. Those health nuts are probably abstaining, but there is a concerted effort by Republicans to legislate in favor of the virus (take a look at Florida). General anti-vaxxers are avoiding them to be "natural" and "healthy". The pro-covid stuff is much more rooted in mistrust of government. Although it is easy to blame Republicans for all of it, the anti-vax movement specifically started on the left (the new-age progressives) and has gotten a boost among the Right. My real fear is that the Right will continue the anti-vax train - rather than distrusting the covid vaccines, they could easily be persuaded to just avoid all vaccines. Honestly I don't understand the purpose of this. To what end is the anti-vax madness? Selling alternatives? Just straight-up doomsday cult? I don't know.
Post by: Iduno on October 07, 2021, 08:20:17 pm
https://twitter.com/kprather88/status/1446208843906629640 (https://twitter.com/kprather88/status/1446208843906629640)
Post by: LordBaal on October 07, 2021, 09:31:37 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on October 07, 2021, 09:42:37 pm
But probably an untimely excess of caution that will generate significant harm when miscontrued in anti-vaxxer circles. So fair enough with the wtf-ing.
I'd say the opposite, are you suggesting the government should disregard higher chances of ill side effects for a part of the populace, when they have the means to avoid this higher risk by simply redistributing vaccine use to not use that one vaccine at fault on this group?
If anything, this shows that the authorities is taking possible side effects from these new vaccines seriously and is willing to change their policy as new evidence presents itself, and that they don't want to repeat the mistakes of the swine flu vaccine. This is the kind of thing that builds trust in authorities.
No I am not suggesting disregarding whatever (yet to be published) evidence that study has found. But it is early days, it needs to be reviewed, confirmed and compared to side effects from other vaccines. While it is admirable for the government to take it seriously they should also pay attention to the optics of their announcements. It could have simply been said that their advice has changed and now they were not recommending that particular vaccine for young people. (The message sent to the medical community who adminster said vaccines could have carried a stronger message than the press announcement.)
What you seem to disregard is the damage to lives that will be caused worldwide by the anti-vaccination movement taking the official ban out of context. Something they will continue to do even if the initial results do not pan out in further/wider studies.
I takee 40% less dead children any time of the week. Stirres, not shaken please.
It rises to 70% less dead children when combined with existing antimalarial drugs. A double shot is called for! [Edit: ninja have happened]
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 07, 2021, 10:18:28 pm
Honestly I don't understand the purpose of this. To what end is the anti-vax madness? Selling alternatives? Just straight-up doomsday cult? I don't know.
To a very real extent, there isn't a purpose. When you've spend years afraid of "they", it doesn't take much of a push to get to a "they want you to have this, it must be bad" mindset. The right-wing anti-vax stuff is a straight line outcome from the "own the libs" mindset.
Post by: WealthyRadish on October 07, 2021, 10:58:16 pm
Although it is easy to blame Republicans for all of it, the anti-vax movement specifically started on the left (the new-age progressives) and has gotten a boost among the Right.
I'm not sure if the pseudo-left "green" anti-vaxxers can be substantially traced back before the false 1998 autism study (it's an interesting question), but I'm all but certain American far-right anti-vax has deeper roots in Christian extremism and anti-government right-libertarianism (which got more mainstream with reactions to Waco and 9/11, and brought anti-vax conspiracy theories along for the ride).
Post by: delphonso on October 08, 2021, 12:00:56 am
Post by: scriver on October 08, 2021, 03:57:33 am
But probably an untimely excess of caution that will generate significant harm when miscontrued in anti-vaxxer circles. So fair enough with the wtf-ing.
I'd say the opposite, are you suggesting the government should disregard higher chances of ill side effects for a part of the populace, when they have the means to avoid this higher risk by simply redistributing vaccine use to not use that one vaccine at fault on this group?
If anything, this shows that the authorities is taking possible side effects from these new vaccines seriously and is willing to change their policy as new evidence presents itself, and that they don't want to repeat the mistakes of the swine flu vaccine. This is the kind of thing that builds trust in authorities.
No I am not suggesting disregarding whatever (yet to be published) evidence that study has found. But it is early days, it needs to be reviewed, confirmed and compared to side effects from other vaccines. While it is admirable for the government to take it seriously they should also pay attention to the optics of their announcements. It could have simply been said that their advice has changed and now they were not recommending that particular vaccine for young people. (The message sent to the medical community who adminster said vaccines could have carried a stronger message than the press announcement.)
What you seem to disregard is the damage to lives that will be caused worldwide by the anti-vaccination movement taking the official ban out of context. Something they will continue to do even if the initial results do not pan out in further/wider studies.
Yes, that huge hypothetical damage "worldwide" versus the provable damage to this subset of Scandinavian people. Clearly the Swedish institution should be more occupied by what could happen then what would happen to the people they exist to care for. The Swedish Folk Health Agency exists to care for the health of the people of Sweden, not the whole world.
Shit, if you want to talk about hypothetical damage then nothing would be as damaging to Swedish vaccine sentiments as yet another scandal where the authorities didn't care about the consequences and pushed a vaccine with bad side-effects on the people. The swine flu vaccine scandal is already justification #1 for why people who doesn't want to get vaccinated here doesn't get vaccinated.
About the bolded part: literally all the Folk Health Agency does is advice the landthings.
Although it is easy to blame Republicans for all of it, the anti-vax movement specifically started on the left (the new-age progressives) and has gotten a boost among the Right.
I'm not sure if the pseudo-left "green" anti-vaxxers can be substantially traced back before the false 1998 autism study (it's an interesting question), but I'm all but certain American far-right anti-vax has deeper roots in Christian extremism and anti-government right-libertarianism (which got more mainstream with reactions to Waco and 9/11, and brought anti-vax conspiracy theories along for the ride).
This is pure falsehood. In Sweden, one of the biggest (I'd almost dare say only, apart from immigrated cultural sentiment and mistrust of government, but that would be a lie -- we've seen a rise of US exported ideas too over the last decades) is the Antrosophy movement, a bunch of left wing-ish (I'd call them liberals and bourgeois, but I think they would fall under what Americans would consider left-wing) crazies they're responsible for the only outbreaks of measles and rubella/red dog in Sweden in modern times. Antropisphism stems from the early 20th century, became a popular movement in the 70's and 80's (by way of hippies and proggers), and is outright anti-vaccine. Iircthe doctor who did the vaccine-causes-autism study originally was studying whether vaccines caused allergies, which is a claim straight from the antrosophist argument-book.
Now, I don't know how big that movement is in the US, but they are very connected to New Age ideas, which I know the US has more than enough of. There is a significant root to modern anti-vaccitude in those mostly "left-wing" circles. The current day "Facebook anti-vax" movement is pretty much a direct mirror of them back then. If you excuse me going into prejudice I'd suggest there's probably a significant overlap in the "target" denominations of the two.
Post by: Starver on October 08, 2021, 05:40:32 am
(I'd call them liberals and bourgeois, but I think they would fall under what Americans would consider left-wing)A substantial proportion would consider Genghis Khan 'left-wing', of course... :P
Post by: martinuzz on October 08, 2021, 06:19:55 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 08, 2021, 01:15:41 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on October 09, 2021, 12:20:58 am
But probably an untimely excess of caution that will generate significant harm when miscontrued in anti-vaxxer circles. So fair enough with the wtf-ing.
I'd say the opposite, are you suggesting the government should disregard higher chances of ill side effects for a part of the populace, when they have the means to avoid this higher risk by simply redistributing vaccine use to not use that one vaccine at fault on this group?
If anything, this shows that the authorities is taking possible side effects from these new vaccines seriously and is willing to change their policy as new evidence presents itself, and that they don't want to repeat the mistakes of the swine flu vaccine. This is the kind of thing that builds trust in authorities.
No I am not suggesting disregarding whatever (yet to be published) evidence that study has found. But it is early days, it needs to be reviewed, confirmed and compared to side effects from other vaccines. While it is admirable for the government to take it seriously they should also pay attention to the optics of their announcements. It could have simply been said that their advice has changed and now they were not recommending that particular vaccine for young people. (The message sent to the medical community who adminster said vaccines could have carried a stronger message than the press announcement.)
What you seem to disregard is the damage to lives that will be caused worldwide by the anti-vaccination movement taking the official ban out of context. Something they will continue to do even if the initial results do not pan out in further/wider studies.
Yes, that huge hypothetical damage "worldwide" versus the provable damage to this subset of Scandinavian people. Clearly the Swedish institution should be more occupied by what could happen then what would happen to the people they exist to care for. The Swedish Folk Health Agency exists to care for the health of the people of Sweden, not the whole world.
Shit, if you want to talk about hypothetical damage then nothing would be as damaging to Swedish vaccine sentiments as yet another scandal where the authorities didn't care about the consequences and pushed a vaccine with bad side-effects on the people. The swine flu vaccine scandal is already justification #1 for why people who doesn't want to get vaccinated here doesn't get vaccinated.
About the bolded part: literally all the Folk Health Agency does is advice the landthings.
Arse about as always. There is a hypothetical damage to a certain section of the Scandinavian population whereas there is a proven incidence of anti-vaxxers taking statements out of context and misintrepreting data. A number of them have already effectively killled themselves by refusing to be vaccinated and presumably taken a proportion of their listeners with them. Here's an example. (https://newsone.com/playlist/famous-anti-vaxxers-who-have-died-from-covid-19/item/1) No doubt there are better sources. But feel free to investigate any of the figures mentioned. And I assure you there are many more. As for the "proven damage" let's see that data because as far as I can tell it's not yet on the public record and is only considered, even by your own health agencies, as hypothetical and under investigation, at least for the moment. (I mean has it even been peer-reviewed?)
Beyond that stop strawmanning, nobody is calling for them to push a vaccine with bad side effects on people, that's just your bad faith attempt to throw mud and hope that it sticks. The issue I raised isn't protecting the Swedish (and other Nordic) peoples health when being vaccinated - that is emminently reasonable and something I, along with your government and presumably everybody else here, agree with - it is taking care not to provide further fuel to the fire of the anti-vaccination movement. That latter could have been avoided with a degree of awareness of the issues surrounding the covid pandemic, something your bodies should indeed be taking into account when releasing official public statements. Or are you okay with someone shouting fire in a crowded cinema and damn the consequences?
Post by: scriver on October 09, 2021, 01:29:48 pm
Let's look back at the facts here.
1. Swine Flu vaccine is found to cause narcolepsy in Nordic people, primarily Swedes and Finns, and primarily young people. There is a huge scandal over here with the government being made to pay damages to the victims. Despite the victims being very few, the fact that the authorities so heavily pushed the vaccine and disregarded all early reports of this side effect becomes the single biggest fuel for anti-vaccine sentiment here in the last decades, and the scandal is still one of the primary arguments people who don't get vaccinated here give of why they don't get vaccinated.
2. A study of the Nordic peoples shows a small but heightened risk for young people to have bad side effects of one of the vaccines -- and shut it with the "durr we don't know that until we see it ourselves" line of anti-intellectualism, I trust the educated professionals employed to look at research like this to better be able to evaluate it over random facebook researchers like you.
3. The authorities makes the call that since there is no lack of vaccines, the best strategy is for the landthings to cease distribution of this one vaccine to this group, and instead give them one of the other vaccines. The number of vaccinations in this strategy stay the same, and the only consequence is that the small chance of heart inflammation associated can be avoided for the group at risk of it.
Upon hearing this, you argue that it's wrong, and in your ignorance of the wider world suggest a course a better course of action. You are told that the better course of action is what happened, yet double down on how wrong it was without acknowledging this because, of course, that would show a modicum of self-awareness and you live by the code of the narcissist's litany. In actuality, this reveals that you never considered this to be a "better way" to begin with, you simply used it as an shallow rhetorical way to make the authorities seem even more wrong.
Then you start arguing about how the Swedish authorities committed to the health of the Swedish people should disregard this possible side effect, in the people they are in charge of caring for, for the sake of... The hypothetical effects this strategy of continued vaccination of people will have on the arguments some undefined concept of "world-wide" anti-vax people. I raise the more pertinent concerns of hypothetical effects failure to take another possible swine-flu situation in consideration will have on the Swedish anti-vax crowd -- the people much more relevant to the Swedish health agencies and the people they care and worry about spreading -- and you disregard that because... I'm not even sure; at this point it seems you're just an Americentric imperialist with his head up his arse who are unable to understand that the rest of the world doesn't exist for the benefit of you and that we have our own concerns and context of our own societies. You say "world-wide, but it's clear from your srnyimdnt and your examples what you actually mean is "American", probably because you lack the ability to emotionally and intellectually grasp the concept of the world beyond it as anything else than an extension of it. The Swedish authorities are concerned with the Swedish people. They should care about the Swedish people. They should not be concerned with whether their policies to avoid heart inflammation in young Swedes while continuing to vaccinate young Swedes might have on Americans. This shouldn't even need to be repeated, you not accepting that just goes to show how far up your own arse you've rammed that dunce cap of yours.
And then you repeatddly imply that the authorities should lie and deceive it's own populace, say one thing at press releases and then go behind the backs of media and the people and say another thing to the landthings. Again showing your lack knowledge about anything that isn't your own navel, because aside from that being morally and ethically despicable and an affront to the very concept and reason of being of authorities in open and democratic societies, this isn't how Sweden works. These things are public. When agencies such as the Folk Health Agency makes this kind of advice anyone can waltz into the landthing offices and ask to see the documentation. But since you're so concerned with the hypotethical staunching of anti-vax flames, do you understand that something that would really cause them to flare up in Sweden? If the FHM was caught lying to the public about possible health risks while telling the landthings another thing. Which would be immediately revealed, because you wouldn't even need whistle-blowers to tell the media they did, because every single media outlet routinely check up on these things by looking over the automatically public documentation.
As for your "shout fire in the theatre" rhetoric, that's also a flawed and inappropriate metaphor. This isn't some random theatre visitor causing panic in a crowded space. This is the professional agency in charge of preventing fire hazards, after having received reports of burns in a small but consistent group of the theatre audience and reviewing those, letting it be known that there is no fire; but the audience on the first three rows of seats where all the burn reports were from will be moved to another locale where they can continue to watch the play without risking burns. Don't go complaining about mudslinging and being strawmanned (for having your americentric views put in context, no less!) and then throw around trite and irrelevant stock phrases like that.
Sweden still has a high trust in both vaccination and the FMH. Such trust is imperative to combat both anti-vaxxers in general and covid-anti-vaxxers more specifically. You don't build that kind of confidence by lying to and deceiving your own populace. You don't build it by disregarding reports of vaccine side-effects, especially when the actions available to counter them are as easy as simple as a question of logistics where everyone still ends up vaccinated. You build it by being open and honest about what you are doing and why you are doing it. Your way of reasoning, feelotraveler, goes completely against your professed goals. Following your warped and alarmisg intuition would result in anti-vax sentiment growing, not decreasing.
Post by: Stench Guzman on October 09, 2021, 07:15:51 pm
Post by: Vector on October 09, 2021, 08:22:02 pm
Post by: wierd on October 10, 2021, 01:29:42 am
The scenario that causes the clotting seems to be related to the use of modified adenovirus vector vaccines, and not the mRNA based vaccines anyway.
https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/155536/breaking-news-researchers-may-know-the-cause-for-covid-19-vaccine-related-blood-clots/
So, unless you are shooting up on the non-mRNA based vaccines, it likely does not affect you anyway.
Post by: LordBaal on October 10, 2021, 06:45:43 am
Post by: martinuzz on October 10, 2021, 09:07:16 am
Post by: LordBaal on October 10, 2021, 10:18:09 am
Post by: None on October 10, 2021, 08:01:40 pm
Post by: delphonso on October 10, 2021, 10:51:03 pm
Post by: Iduno on October 11, 2021, 07:53:13 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on October 12, 2021, 03:35:39 am
Post by: Iduno on October 12, 2021, 04:57:51 pm
Thank fuck for data or some governments might still be pursuing herd immunity.
I don't see the /s anywhere. Are they not still doing that where you are?
Well, as an excuse anyway. They seem to be doing it in a way to kill off as many poor and non-white people as possible here.
Post by: feelotraveller on October 12, 2021, 05:39:57 pm
Round here the various medical authorities are very up-front about the most important thing being to get vaccinated. That said some areas are opening up way too early, byline - 'for the economy'. And yes it is generally the non-white and poor people who are getting the worst of it.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 12, 2021, 06:52:04 pm
The vaccine is like Pringles. Once you clot, you can't stop.
Well, as someone who has actually successfummu managed a case of VITT, I can tell you that ain't true
Post by: bloop_bleep on October 17, 2021, 08:41:33 pm
The vaccine is like Pringles. Once you clot, you can't stop.
Well, as someone who has actually successfummu managed a case of VITT, I can tell you that ain't true
I don't know what "successfummu" means but I can tell you it sounds uncomfortably close to "snafu".
Post by: Starver on October 18, 2021, 02:26:27 am
In virus news, Africa has been spared an outbreak of Matt Hancock (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Hancock), the other day. (But at least it wasn't Chris Grayling!)
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 18, 2021, 05:14:28 pm
Post by: Vector on October 18, 2021, 05:18:32 pm
Post by: scriver on October 18, 2021, 05:38:08 pm
But maybe I just didn't get that that was part of the joke
Post by: nenjin on October 18, 2021, 06:50:55 pm
Post by: None on October 18, 2021, 09:09:39 pm
Post by: scriver on October 19, 2021, 01:24:29 am
Also, that's from July 24, nearly three months ago. How'd that play out?
Argh, when I googled it it said "yesterday" in Google's dating of the article. Shane on me for not making sure!
Post by: feelotraveller on October 19, 2021, 03:43:48 am
Also, that's from July 24, nearly three months ago. How'd that play out?
Something like this (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20211014-macron-s-covid-health-pass-a-success-in-overcoming-france-s-vaccine-scepticism)
Post by: martinuzz on October 22, 2021, 03:51:22 am
They cannot cope with the backlog of 2 years of postponed care that has piled up during the corona crisis.
And now corona admissions are rising again in the hospitals (despite about 85% of our population now having been fully vaccinated).
Some hospitals are back to pre-corona capacity, a lot are still under their capactiy, whereas to catch up with the backlog, extra capacity is what is needed.
The main bottleneck is staff. There is a severe shortage of surgery assistants, nurses, and medical support staff.
Where before corona, there were already 14000 open positions not filled, the staff shortage is now 75000.
Post by: Imic on October 23, 2021, 03:23:47 pm
Slight issue: I live with my Mum.
Post by: Frumple on October 23, 2021, 04:09:05 pm
You're going through the steps, right? Voluminous cursing, informing anyone relevant (school, work) you've probably either caught or are about to catch the plague and won't be back for a couple weeks at minimum, arranging for food and med drops for the stay-the-fuck-at-home-plaguerat period?
Here's hoping you and anyone you care about survives the plague without permanent damage (or at least if it is permanent, it's debilitating enough you qualify for disability payments without being suicidally miserable).
Post by: Imic on October 23, 2021, 04:30:39 pm
Still unclear on what we're gonna do about food. The first person who comes to mind is also the last person who would want to do it, or that we would want to do it.
Post by: martinuzz on October 23, 2021, 05:17:53 pm
If the number of ICU admissions rises above 500, non-vaccinated will no longer be welcome in hotels, restaurants and pubs.
If the ICU admission rises above 600, non-vaccinated will be confined to their homes unless they have a valid and approved reason to go somewhere.
Only 60% of the Austrian population has been vaccinated.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 24, 2021, 02:04:36 am
.
Post by: Starver on October 24, 2021, 05:29:46 am
Though it's hard to say how much is Covid-caused (probably mostly, but not exclusively, indirect pressures) and how much is the regular run-of-the-mill mismanagement of the NHS by <blame your favourite[1] target>, slightly ahead of the usual Winter Rush.
I've not personally noticed too much of this where I am, but then I've not needed to approach any healthcare situation for any reason, since my last dental checkup.
[1] The current Tories (/the SNP), private co-partners for profit, the 95%±10% capacity model, unions, GP receptionists/GPs doing to little, pesky walk-in time-wasters, the broken nature of the NHS itself, the great success of the NHS itself, etc, etc. According to personal taste and experience. I've got my own opinion, which I've purposefully left out of this list.
Post by: None on October 24, 2021, 07:40:11 am
The hours of fever-dreaming about doing software testing for work last night kinda sucked, plus, y'know, the sore arm, body aches, chills, etc. Glad I've got the weekend to, as Bo Burnham puts it, 'feel like big ol' duffel bag of shit.' Gonna feel a lot safer going into the winter months, in any case.
Post by: martinuzz on October 26, 2021, 10:44:59 am
Not long now, and not being vaccinated will get you on the terrorist organistation blacklist.
Post by: martinuzz on October 28, 2021, 06:34:51 am
It is feared that Africa will have more than one pandemic to deal with if this continues.
Post by: LordBaal on October 28, 2021, 06:39:50 am
Post by: Frumple on November 05, 2021, 12:04:39 pm
... iirc, the mechanics behind this one is also likely to be effective on related viruses; i.e. on top of being highly effective against covid, it or something similar may end up as what amounts to a cure for the common cold. So, uh. Here's hoping, I guess.
Post by: Starver on November 05, 2021, 03:50:27 pm
Perhaps if it's the panacea it is promised to be and economies of scale get in there some more..? But I expect it'll be a hard slog to barter the cost down much from that price-point, for either healthcare establishments, OTC or (if so hoped) sat next to the supermarket-brand generic Anadin.
Will look up the detail later, gotta see some fireworks!
Post by: Starver on November 05, 2021, 05:13:54 pm
Molnupiravir (Merck) was approved earlier by UK medical authorities, and an order put in. Undisclosed cost-per-dose, but US had advance-ordered for $700 (£513) per patient.
Paxlovid (Pfizer) is the one announcing 89% protection (for the recently infected, with other complications). No word on cost, and very little other directly comparable information available between the two.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 05, 2021, 08:49:34 pm
Only firm price I found quoted was $700 (and only by one questionable source) but I wonder/suspect that they had crossed their wires with Molnupiravir. I did stumble across Pfizer's 'commitment to equitable access' along the way:
https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Pfizers-Novel-COVID-19-Oral-Antiviral-Treatment-Candidate-Reduced-Risk-of-Hospitalization-or-Death-by-89-in-Interim-Analysis-of-Phase-23-EPIC-HR-Study/default.aspx (https://investors.pfizer.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2021/Pfizers-Novel-COVID-19-Oral-Antiviral-Treatment-Candidate-Reduced-Risk-of-Hospitalization-or-Death-by-89-in-Interim-Analysis-of-Phase-23-EPIC-HR-Study/default.aspx)
Quote
Pfizer will offer our investigational oral antiviral therapy through a tiered pricing approach based on the income level of each country to promote equity of access across the globe.which stayed my snarky comment about 'Africa when?'
At the same place Pfizer claim to be committing about one billion dollars for 'manufacturing and distribution' although as to what that actually means in terms of number of doses/treatments we will have to wait and see.
Post by: martinuzz on November 14, 2021, 11:57:19 am
The unvaccinated are now under lockdown. They are only allowed to leave the house for essential activities like work, groceries or doctor's visit, with exception for children under age 12.
With only 62% of the population being vaccinated, this effectively puts nearly half of the population under lockdown.
Post by: Starver on November 14, 2021, 01:19:43 pm
The question is (and I suppose I should look it up) whether there was a decent opportunity for those other 38% (minus the usual edge cases, like the very young that are at the back of the queue, or otherwise medically exempt) to get vaccinated, or it's through non-availability rather than hesitancy.
If it's basically hesitancy, then this is probably the sticky-carrot they probably need. Not too sure whether it'll work with the typical (non-62%er) Austrian, though. Right now I can only think of Arnie and Adolph as examplar Austrians, and I'm sure neither of those is particularly typical.
Post by: martinuzz on November 14, 2021, 02:47:03 pm
Post by: Starver on November 15, 2021, 05:54:57 am
It's mostly because it's a protected 'trademark' by the tribe, and they are remembering the countless lives lost in prior non-local diseases brought to NZ. But it's probably also one of the most potentially Covid-transmitting 'greetings', as well, even more than handshaking. (Mass French-kissing with tongues and Inuit nose-rubbing are probably worse.)
Post by: martinuzz on November 15, 2021, 12:06:35 pm
I am going to refuse.
On both humanitarian as well as epidemiological grounds: Africa first.
Post by: Frumple on November 15, 2021, 02:11:37 pm
Might make things worse, even, if the booster does help prevent breakthrough, transmission, or intensity.
Post by: martinuzz on November 15, 2021, 03:09:04 pm
Africa is only, what was the last numbers I read... IIRC 2.5% vaccinated (for the whole continent, there are one or two African countries that have a decent vaccination percentage), of which a part only got their first shot.
The longer that situation exists, the more chance of even more infectious or virulent strains evolving.
Not just Africa btw. Most of the third world.
Post by: Egan_BW on November 15, 2021, 05:21:49 pm
Post by: martinuzz on November 15, 2021, 05:54:59 pm
Ofcourse I realize that my insignificant little person refusing a single shot won't help. But many droplets make an ocean.
Post by: delphonso on November 15, 2021, 06:27:03 pm
Not just Africa btw. Most of the third world.
Variants will also push the vaccine's efficacy down, so the "third" isn't necessary there. The longer the virus roams free, the more variants we will see.
Egan_BW is completely correct, though - take the shot and then write a letter to your local government officials expressing a strong desire to not get the next one until a significant number of vaccines are shipped abroad. Might not do much, but many droplets make an ocean.
In positive news, the anti-virals that were posted here are looking good. In conjunction with vaccines (and enough vaccines, a slowed mutation rate), covid being endemic might not be...nightmarish. Still bad, but not as bad as before.
(Also heads up but anti-vaxxers are pushing a narrative that the pfizer drug is just ivermectin. At least they're admitting the drug is effective...)
Post by: None on November 15, 2021, 07:36:19 pm
Funny, we haven't heard about hydroxychloroquine from them for a while now. I'd give a hearty chuckle if they went on about how science changes over time with regards to that particular antivax angle.
Post by: martinuzz on November 16, 2021, 04:03:34 am
The company, Spoedtest.nl has 100s of test locations in the country and has been providing over 20% of all corona tests in the Netherlands.
EDIT: the company's CEO says he is baffled by the accusation. He says that there are 2000 people working for his company, and that he cannot check them all constantly. But still, he says, he has a hard time imagining that anyone working for him has done such a thing, especially since every negative test needs to be vetted by a official medical professional.
He wonders if his company has been victim of hackers.
EDIT2: Geez. Imagine this really being a hack by a Russian hacker group. That's grounds for a NATO article 5 and declaration of war, because, biological warfare.
Post by: martinuzz on November 17, 2021, 11:39:16 am
I guess I will get that 3d booster shot, making the statement in a major newspaper hopefully contributes more to raising awareness of the importance of vaccinating the third world countries that me refusing a single shot will.
Quote
Consciencely and consciously if have taken 2 shots of the Pfizer vaccin, as soon as it was my turn in queue.
However, I am going to refuse the 3d booster shot, on both humanitarian as well as epidemiological grounds: Africa first.
We can keep navel gazing at the situation in our miniscule little country, but getting a third shot isn't going to help combat the global pandemic.
Original:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 18, 2021, 02:02:06 pm
They're starting here with the 'booster shot', 3d vaccination.If you get ill and occupy a hospital bed you're helping noone.
I am going to refuse.
On both humanitarian as well as epidemiological grounds: Africa first.
Post by: martinuzz on November 18, 2021, 02:30:23 pm
Eventually it will bite you in the ass when more dangerous strains develop unchecked in unvaccinated countries.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 18, 2021, 06:45:16 pm
Post by: delphonso on November 18, 2021, 07:30:40 pm
Although I could get behind the spirit of this (I'm not keen on vaccine passports and the like, but at this point I'd be willing to walk around jabbing anyone with a needle if we can get immunity up), the core premise is completely misinformed (intentionally, I have to assume). The CDC has found that those who were vaccinated have a stronger immune response when compared to those who have virus induced immunity. Hospitalizations are more common with those who recovered naturally than those who were vaccinated, as well. Taking the shot is still better and recommended, even if you were previously infected. A better form of immunity is supplied by the vaccine, and would only be a benefit to those who were previously infected. So requiring the vaccine still makes sense, on a large-scale virus-control strategy.
The bill states that none of this is true and points to the CDC for not doing the research...which they have done and continue to do.
Death cult vibes.
Post by: Starver on November 18, 2021, 07:48:17 pm
Post by: martinuzz on November 19, 2021, 04:53:35 pm
Just now, multiple people were injured when police fired warning shots. Number and severity of casualties not yet known.
I think this is the first time in my country in more than 50 years that police use live rounds against rioters. Damn.
Post by: LordBaal on November 19, 2021, 05:01:05 pm
Post by: martinuzz on November 19, 2021, 05:03:01 pm
Post by: Frumple on November 19, 2021, 05:09:09 pm
Post by: LordBaal on November 19, 2021, 05:12:37 pm
To prevent the already overcrowded hospitals from overcrowding even further with drunk idiots that blew their fingers, ears, or eyes off while setting off fireworks. (We don't have large firework events here, everybody has their own private firework party on their doorstep.
Ohh that. Maybe they should have offered to hold their own firework spectacles on several spots in the city to please the masses?
Post by: Starver on November 19, 2021, 05:26:25 pm
Not all those doing so are deliberate law-breaking idiots (maybe just a bit ignorant/inconsiderate, to various degrees), but I imagine that there'll be a few casualties from their number (or by their actions).
Post by: martinuzz on November 20, 2021, 04:22:26 am
7 people have been injured, 20 people have been arrested. An unknown number of policemen have been injured too, and 4 police vans were burned down. Police had to protect firefighters and medics from the horde.
This is not my country. Police shooting live ammo at rioters, that shit happens in Belarus, not here, damnit.
Post by: dragdeler on November 20, 2021, 05:55:51 am
Post by: martinuzz on November 20, 2021, 09:24:53 am
Post by: LordBaal on November 20, 2021, 09:29:18 am
In all seriousness, this is a regretable state of affairs. The news of the land of wooden shoes already hit local reporters here. You have to fuck up really hard to lift the constant shitty local state and get noticed by Venezuelan media which has either an endless stream of right at home disgrace to offer or claims everything is fine in a We Happy Few style.
Post by: Grim Portent on November 20, 2021, 05:32:35 pm
Protestors, pissed off with new corona measures and pissed off with the descision to ban fireworks at New Years Eve again, started rioting and throwing heavy fireworks at the police in the Dutch city of Rotterdam. The city is under emergency lockdown now, subways, trains and cars are not allowed to enter the city center.
Just now, multiple people were injured when police fired warning shots. Number and severity of casualties not yet known.
I think this is the first time in my country in more than 50 years that police use live rounds against rioters. Damn.
Protesting against a fireworks ban is honestly fucking stupid, so I'm more curious about the new corona measures they're protesting against. What I could find was some stuff about letting businesses be more strict about the criteria for someone to be allowed to use their services, making a negative covid test insufficient. Was there anything else bothering them or is it as petty as it looks like to me?
Post by: martinuzz on November 20, 2021, 06:16:58 pm
There's a lot of people here who are very lightly inflammable when it comes to their yearly fireworks 'hobby'. Before corona, a fireworks ban never made it through politics, whether on national or on local levels, even though it has been tried many times.
'Muh fireworks, muh traditions, muh freedoms'.
I hate the yearly fireworks, on behalf of my cats and everyone else's poor pets.
Post by: Bumber on November 20, 2021, 06:35:40 pm
The CDC has found that those who were vaccinated have a stronger immune response when compared to those who have virus induced immunity.
Source?
I found this (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/vaccine-induced-immunity.html), which says they don't have sufficient data on natural immunity. It mentions the vaccines lead to "a more consistent and higher-titer initial antibody response", but that says nothing about long-term immunity.
Here's a pre-print thingy (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.24.21262415v1) stating that natural immunity seems to be more effective than the vaccines alone. (While having both provides the best protection.) There are several such articles, but I don't think enough quality data has been collected to be conclusive.
I'm pretty sure it aligns with traditional medical knowledge that natural immunity is more broad than vaccine-induced immunity. We have an mRNA vaccine that was designed to target only the spike protein of the alpha variant. Natural immunity picks up on all the various viral fragments, which means the virus has to mutate more to evade it. It seems strange to me that we're giving boosters of a vaccine built for alpha that's begun showing breakthroughs for delta, when we should be deploying a new delta vaccine instead. (Or the SpFN vaccine, if that pans out.) Leave the boosters for those 80 years and up, who have trouble maintaining the vaccine antibodies to begin with.
Or we could give the boosters to healthy people and deliberately infect them with the alpha variant for the full immunity. It sounds like a terrible idea, but there's logic to it. (I guess the viral sample could be weakened/dead, though there's probably a reason why the vaccine doesn't work that way in the first place.) /ramblings
Post by: delphonso on November 20, 2021, 07:07:52 pm
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/vaccine-induced-immunity.html#anchor_1635539757101
'Whereas there is a wide range in antibody titers in response to infection with SARS-CoV-2, completion of a primary vaccine series, especially with mRNA vaccines, typically leads to a more consistent and higher-titer initial antibody response.'
This is where the CDC details that those who have infection-induced immunity are more likely to be hospitalized from Covid than.those with vaccine-induced immunity.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7044e1.htm
I doubt the booster and current vaccines aren't being tweaked to deal with variants. There is also the fact that those who are vaccine immune will still encounter virus loads and will continue to develop immunities to anything that doesn't break through into a full case. There is no reasonable case to encourage the risk of infection-induced immunity when we have a vaccine.
Post by: Starver on November 20, 2021, 07:28:06 pm
Catching the actual thing isn't so certain. You might find it gets stomped on straight away (especially if you previously flyposted the alert around your system, and the militia are still ready and willing to pounce on what you just caught) but if it doesn't and it goes on a rampage while the system's still trying to work out what you have then...
Fully attenuated viruses may help, but you need a similar amount of them (and of course they'd be coming in bigger quantities.mol-1) to the fragments experimentally decideded to be the optimal recognition factor if you can't afford to convey the whole Who's Who entry and just have to describe their most unique facial feature for various reasons.
I instincively think that 'two-factor' subset-immunisation might be a good approach, to drastically counter feature-drift selection, but I'm just guessing there. Multiple 'brands' of vaccine as first/second/booster (when I get my booster, it'll almost certainly be different from my 1st+2nd, but not for that reason) should go some way to that. A good mix of instantaneous depth and long-term breadth in the protective envelope. (Again, IANAImmunologist. Just juggling the pure maths in my head. Real World results may vary, your home is at risk if you do not keep up the repayments.)
Post by: McTraveller on November 24, 2021, 01:54:00 pm
We are vaccinated, so it's now a statistics game with general hygiene and whatever the breakthrough infection rate is (1%?).
The joys of living in the state with the highest per-capita positive rate in the country.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 24, 2021, 03:56:05 pm
Blargh, all kinds of people we know have been testing positive recently. Even quite a few people which are asymptomatic. My wife just said someone she works with tested positive and "she was hanging out with her all day yesterday."It depends on exposure and when you received the last dose too. IIRC with the variants the efficacy for the pfizer and mlderna vaccines was downgraded to ~80%
We are vaccinated, so it's now a statistics game with general hygiene and whatever the breakthrough infection rate is (1%?).
The joys of living in the state with the highest per-capita positive rate in the country.
Of note: in my current workplace everyone who ended up in ICU in the last 6 months was either unvaxxed or immunocompromised.
Last unvaxxed I saw in ICU died from DIC secondary to covid. Pretty ghastly
Post by: Iduno on November 24, 2021, 04:07:05 pm
The joys of living in the state with the highest per-capita positive rate in the country.
Highest *reported* rate. Everyone is lying about the numbers, and a lot are preventing tests. Because lower numbers are better for the economy.
Post by: Egan_BW on November 24, 2021, 08:39:19 pm
Post by: Bumber on November 25, 2021, 06:27:46 am
I doubt the booster and current vaccines aren't being tweaked to deal with variants.
I don't have any reason to believe they are until I hear otherwise, and the CDC certainly hasn't been touting that. Tweaking would probably require going through the whole approval process again, not to mention the shift in production. (Edit: Unless you just mean they're working on it, but they certainly aren't waiting for that to push more of the old vaccine on the vaccinated population, to the obvious benefit of big pharma and the detriment of the 3rd world.)
Someone my mom knows apparently got COVID a week after receiving the booster. Don't recall if it was symptomatic or not.
Post by: martinuzz on November 25, 2021, 06:36:33 am
Post by: Starver on November 25, 2021, 07:42:19 am
Quote from: Amongst other interesting speculation/information...
Vaccine developers tested the currently available COVID-19 vaccines in phase III trials involving tens of thousands of participants before regulators authorized the drugs' use. But that kind of testing for a revamped vaccine would be slow and difficult now that the first-generation vaccines are being deployed worldwide, says immunologist Drew Weissman at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia: “I can’t imagine how they could do a phase III trial for a variant.”
It’s unclear how much clinical data would be needed to approve a COVID-19 vaccine update. New seasonal flu vaccines typically do not require fresh trials. But regulators do not have the assurance of decades of experience and clinical data with COVID-19 vaccines. “They might say, ‛It’s a brand new vaccine, let’s do a couple of clinical trials,’” says Weissman.
I haven't seen much explicitly about this since then, though this was a few months later (https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/the-effects-of-virus-variants-on-covid-19-vaccines) and represents somewhat of an official summary.
But I imagine it is all being planned, still, behind the scenes. Just isn't 'news', or worthwhile trying to keep the (no longer as desperate for something, anything, to be developed) masses and their media informed.
For my part, the deal-breaker is more if there's that lesser response to an 'update' amongst those already earlier-variant protected. If this is an issue then either you need to make a more provoking version for 'booster' purposes, or only use the tweaked version in recipients still with 'naïve' immune systems (and there's a lot of them out there). Technical and/or logistic issues, of course.
Post by: feelotraveller on November 25, 2021, 06:45:15 pm
A new variant has been detected in Southern Africa (Botswana probably, although other sources say South Africa) that looks very threatening as it contains a huge number of mutations with a majority being on the spike protein.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/24/scientists-warn-of-new-covid-variant-with-high-number-of-mutations)
https://www.dw.com/en/south-africa-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variant/a-59934908 (https://www.dw.com/en/south-africa-scientists-detect-new-covid-19-variant/a-59934908)
Worth reading both to pair the conservatism (here, ;D) of the guardian with the sensationalism of deutsche welle.
(The bbc coverage is somewhat in between: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59418127)).
(Vaccines haven't been tweaked for this one yet.)
Post by: Starver on November 25, 2021, 09:56:06 pm
Which sounds like a bad McGuffinesque plot thing by someone slighy wary of using the old "Omega" cliché yet again...
Post by: LordBaal on November 26, 2021, 07:57:46 am
Worth reading both to pair the conservatism (here, ;D) of the guardian with the sensationalism of deutsche welle.What? The virus now reanimates dead bodies?!
Post by: martinuzz on November 26, 2021, 09:43:24 am
This evening there will be a press conference in which the government will announce more lockdown rules, and try to explain to the population how it can be that despite their promises of the vaccin preventing hospital overcrowding and lockdowns, it yet again has come to this.
They're going to have a hard time getting any trust from the population now. No one understands how we can still be so gravely hit by the 4th wave (daily positive tests and hospital admissions are actually higher than during the last wave, back when no one was vaccinated), despite about 90% of the adult population having been double vaccinated.
Post by: LordBaal on November 26, 2021, 09:47:17 am
Post by: martinuzz on November 26, 2021, 09:48:58 am
"I've got something to Putin you"?
Post by: LordBaal on November 26, 2021, 09:56:32 am
Post by: martinuzz on November 26, 2021, 10:18:09 am
Post by: Starver on November 26, 2021, 04:33:10 pm
Not sure if those articles mentioned it, but tentitively it's been proposed that this'll be the "Nu-variant". 13th Greek letter, ν)....it seems they dodged that bullet. It's officially Omicron!
Which sounds like a bad McGuffinesque plot thing by someone slighy wary of using the old "Omega" cliché yet again...
(Which probably makes one think of a planet-sized robot... How little forsight of the Ancient Greeks to not have more than enough characters in their alphabet to leave plenty of sufficiently meme-free letter-names for future use. :P )
To get there, they also skipped (or maybe gave to a less significant variation) the Xi, ξ, but surely their next choice is as easy as Pi!
Post by: LordBaal on November 26, 2021, 05:42:17 pm
(https://www.ludonauta.es/files/ludico/juegos-mesas/juego-mesa-virus-omega-567881662.jpg)
Post by: feelotraveller on November 26, 2021, 06:18:08 pm
https://www.foxla.com/news/moderna-testing-3-covid-19-booster-vaccines-on-omicron-variant-pfizer-ready-to-adapt (https://www.foxla.com/news/moderna-testing-3-covid-19-booster-vaccines-on-omicron-variant-pfizer-ready-to-adapt)
Not so much shilling for them as commenting that vaccine development is ongoing. And yes, regulator approval will be necessary for new drugs at the national level, as per usual.
Post by: Vector on November 26, 2021, 06:57:27 pm
Post by: None on November 26, 2021, 07:04:58 pm
Post by: McTraveller on November 26, 2021, 07:22:25 pm
I'm just wondering when people will stop flipping out every time there is another variant. There are going to be variants basically until the end of time. It really seems like we as a society is overreacting now.
I don't mean stop developing vaccines or having measured hygiene / public health programs. But panic (see stock markets) and just basically shutting down and giving up.... really?
Post by: Rolan7 on November 26, 2021, 07:48:02 pm
...There are a few reasons for that, which I think people should be angry about:
Vaccine rollout (and even production) left the third world unprotected, allowing a safe area for the virus to mutate.
Also, prominent personalities like Alex Jones weakened public trust in *this specific* vaccine which directly resulted in a less effectual rollout. Countries like the USA and UK continue to breed Covid because of grift. For money. I truly believe that those people deserve a fair trial for hundreds of thousands of counts of manslaughter, potentially 7.7 billion.
Edit: Like, "treason" is a dumb charge because states are meh, but can we get a charge of treason against human life?
Post by: Starver on November 26, 2021, 07:51:01 pm
Apart from the "we don't trust experts" lot (who are probably a lost cause), the politicians maybe ought to stay out of it, except as far as needed to get the proper meritocracy onto the appropriate podium to say their bit.
(Just the other day I accepted the other-than-last-year Annual Christmas Invitation from the large extended clan I sit well on the outskirts of. I did say "all else allowing", even before the inkling of this latest developments.)
Oh, and a cinema in Wales that refused to check Covid Passports/take other precautions, is being forced to close. Wales has strong precautions still in place (similar to Scotland, NI... England is currently very lapse, in comparison) but it seems like the owner/manager in this case thought she could ignore them, and also refused to turn up for the initial court hearing she was summonsed to, so the proverbial tonne of bricks is now being dropped upon the establishment concerned. Might be worth seeing where the support/push-back for that comes from, and how much of each.
Mc: We've had maybe twelve other namable variants (Nu would have been the 13th, but if they skipped to the 15th letter I cannot rule out that they skipped some of the first dosen, without checking) and while back when they christened the Alpha one (presumed UK-native) there were lower bars to jump to be "of concern" as it drifts away from the baseline version(s), by now they're probably better at finding small differences but more picky about lumping-and-splitting. Omicron seems to have a load of mutations that have made it out-compete Delta (the one otherwise stull of greatest concern in this part of the world) and seems to suggest it is more of concern.
Not sure about it regarding rate of fatality/debilitatory, but it's good at spreading. Which could be a blessing (displace more harmful strains, and yet still prime people's systems against them) but that's a long-shot. It also acts as a good metric about how careless people still are. Right now, catching Alpha or even Delta could be from any old non-biosecure contact you have in the UK, as the epidemic/endemic borderline is approached. As soon as Omicron is spotted, it shows that some of the comparatively few people who do so are galavanting around overseas and returning/visting here without all the due care they should be taking.
Post by: Vector on November 26, 2021, 08:15:33 pm
Hey Vec, at least you'll be isolated during the break, yeah?
I will be, but then I go immediately afterwards to in-person instruction on a gigantic public university campus. The problem is that I am very weird now about being alone.
Post by: hector13 on November 26, 2021, 08:21:12 pm
People would also be tremendously upset if Christmas were cancelled again.
Post by: Rolan7 on November 26, 2021, 08:29:22 pm
But yes, that's going to cause an awful lot of stir. And I even went to a three-day Friendsgiving thing before seeing some aunts for Thanksgiving itself. (Dad and I did do nasal Covid tests to be safe. We could have been infected at the Friendsgiving but we shouldn't have been infectious yet. Neither of us were at all likely to be infected earlier.)
(The Friendsgiving wasn't *my* friends but it was still good fun, honestly)
I'm definitely skipping Christmas this year though. I've used much worse excuses. It's not a religious thing, although that does grate. I hate birthday parties too. Obligatory gift giving is great for most people, but I have a lot of personal experience problems with it so no thanks.
(The giving is fun, the receiving... I feel like I'm being saddled with obligations. I have problems.)
Post by: None on November 26, 2021, 10:42:48 pm
My concern is as much about the severity of a new strain and the probable unwillingness of swaths of people either to continue minding it or using it as a shovel to continue entrenching in antivax bullshit (you got that last shot and it's no good any more, how much stuff are you going to let The Man pump into your arm?). It was a battle of attrition with the bug to begin with, the worry is the metaphorical terrain will slant uphill while the human death spiral sucks in the hapless and unwilling into its deadly vortex.
I think each and every one of us who has taken each and every consideration for a deadly global pandemic has every right to continue flipping out as it becomes progressively more difficult to keep ourselves and others safe.
Post by: hector13 on November 26, 2021, 11:11:01 pm
I mean, two current existential crises have fairly easy solutions to them: basic hygiene and consideration for your neighbour will likely keep you from getting sick, and not burning the world to the ground will mean we can continue, like, breathing and shit. (well alright over-simplifying climate change but seriously doing something is better than progressively accelerating it.)
Will people do that? Fuck no. Why should they spend a dollar today to avoid spending two tomorrow fixing a now much more significant problem? A stitch in time saves nine, but they could just buy a new dress, too, it’s fine. Doesn’t matter that the new dress is just the shreds of the old one (the metaphor is getting away from me) but by the time it matters they’ll be dead and their kids and grand-kids have to deal with it.
Morganite away, guys.
Post by: Rolan7 on November 26, 2021, 11:20:37 pm
Quote
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant. Need as well as greed have followed us to the stars, and the rewards of wealth still await those wise enough to recognize this deep thrumming of our common pulse.- A maniac who funded measures against all those literal brainworms, marking him as a much better capitalist than any of our market leaders.
Of course, he planned to live forever. He wasn't running down his last 10 years trying to build a high score, and damn the consequences to everyone else.
Post by: Vector on November 27, 2021, 12:16:25 am
Post by: martinuzz on November 27, 2021, 06:04:15 am
But now, in just one day, on two flights from South Africa, 600 people were tested, and 61 were tested positive for corona.
Although it is not yet known if they have the new omicron variant, this is not boding well. It looks like this omicron variant is much more contagious than the delta variant.
Post by: LordBaal on November 27, 2021, 08:14:56 am
Post by: hector13 on November 27, 2021, 09:33:14 am
Also, the WHO is urging countries not to rush to travel bans, and instead use a risk-based and scientific approach.
I would personally have thought that not allowing people into your country that have been in an at-risk area would be quite a sensible decision, but then again they also allow their own nationals in even if they’ve been to those places, just quarantine ‘em first.
Post by: TamerVirus on November 27, 2021, 10:43:03 am
And the Xi variant :P
Post by: Stench Guzman on November 27, 2021, 01:40:21 pm
Post by: Vector on November 27, 2021, 03:13:53 pm
Merry Clotsmas
Not looking forward to trying to explain this one to the grandkids
Post by: Egan_BW on November 27, 2021, 03:23:43 pm
To be clear I'm freaking out because my housemates are leaving to travel for holiday stuff. Not because I'm expecting a lockdown. Because six months of enforced Alone Time has created personality changes such that I'm no longer exactly an introvert.
I think that six months living alone would be unpleasant for plenty of actual introverts, myself included.
That said, I seem to have gotten sick with something-or-other right after thanksgiving, so I'd support canceling all family gathering holidays. Forever. I might be biased at this moment because it still hurts, but still.
Post by: martinuzz on November 27, 2021, 03:38:59 pm
There will be a sad empty spot on my christmas table.
Ever since my long pig escaped.
Post by: Egan_BW on November 27, 2021, 03:48:41 pm
Post by: Frumple on November 27, 2021, 03:51:49 pm
Look forward to explaining things to grandkids, that means at least two people are alive you probably want to be :P
Post by: Starver on November 27, 2021, 03:52:42 pm
I think you're supposed to eat the plump swines, not the spindly ones.I always strive to be, when it comes down to it, a Humanitarian.
Post by: None on November 27, 2021, 07:11:44 pm
You could also just accept the inevitable that the human race is too stupid to survive.
Problem is, I'm the human race too, as are everyone I know and love, so I kind of sort of rather don't like this outcome.
Post by: Egan_BW on November 27, 2021, 09:09:20 pm
Regardless, I have no reason to be sure we're doomed in that particular way, or that we're doomed at all. Thus, I may as well not lose myself to despair, if only because I don't have enough of a mind to conclude I should.
Post by: hector13 on November 27, 2021, 09:29:41 pm
Summat like that anyway.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on November 27, 2021, 09:54:56 pm
By no means do I suggest no effort is made to fix issues, we just have to deal with some people banging their head on the wall complaining their head hurts while other people tell them if they vote for them they’ll stick it to the guys who are making their head hurt, because the other guys are trying to take their headache medicine and give it to other people.
Summat like that anyway.
Yet both candidates are funded by Big Wall.
Post by: LordBaal on November 28, 2021, 08:21:23 am
Post by: martinuzz on November 28, 2021, 03:20:20 pm
13 out of the 61 travellers that tested positive have the new omicron variant (which turned our country into the country with the most confirmed omicron infections except for South Africa itself, overnight.)
EDIT: One married couple managed to escape from the hotel. They have been arrested inside a plane that was about to take off from Schiphol airport, and have been back to the quarantaine hotel.
I wonder if all the passengers in the plane they fled to have also been taken into custody to be tested...
Post by: delphonso on November 28, 2021, 05:36:21 pm
Post by: Starver on November 28, 2021, 07:01:40 pm
Number three, reportedly, is someone "not in the UK now, but had visited Westminster". Which certainly puts a few interesting angles on the situation.
(England's finally... Well from Tuesday... going back to compulsory masks in all kinds of places they had re. Whoop-de-doo. For those of us who never stopped wearing them, I'm sure that's the very least that could be done. The safest people in England are probably those still stuck at the Tan Hill Inn for a third night... Politically, the SNP is tabling a motion in Westminster to censure Boris Johnson. Not directly related to the fall-out specific to Omicron, and probably will fail, but indicative of either general backround feeling or of opportunism, depending on your POV.)
On the general Omicron front, some of those studying current data think it might be particularly good at evading various prior acquired immunities but may also be much milder. It could be the route to a (comparatively) benign endemic. Not something I'm going to bet upon, though, so for now I'm not going to be tempting fate on such a promise. I'll stick with Boosters, thanks.
Post by: delphonso on November 28, 2021, 07:27:47 pm
On the general Omicron front, some of those studying current data think it might be particularly good at evading various prior acquired immunities but may also be much milder. It could be the route to a (comparatively) benign endemic. Not something I'm going to bet upon, though, so for now I'm not going to be tempting fate on such a promise. I'll stick with Boosters, thanks.
Same - while searching for any optimism on the topic I had the fantasy of a more infectious but much less deadly variant out-competing the rest. We'll see, I guess. Been eagerly looking toward Nature and the WHO for updates.
Post by: Vector on November 28, 2021, 11:15:35 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 29, 2021, 07:15:55 am
Post by: Starver on November 29, 2021, 09:15:40 am
Everyone over 18 is being encouraged to Boost, in England at least, but unless you were already a priority (by higher age or specific health vulnerabilities) you still won't actually be able to. Typical sideways promises-that-aren't. ;)
Post by: martinuzz on November 29, 2021, 09:19:26 am
Vulnerable groups are getting it a bit sooner I think.
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 29, 2021, 09:24:46 am
There's just one shame though. Can't for the life of me convince my sister or her SO to take jab 1 or jab 2, let alone jab 3. She's convinced this jab'll mutate her genome, but didn't bat an eyelid at any flu shot, chicken pox or tetanus jab before
Post by: martinuzz on November 29, 2021, 09:31:14 am
Post by: scriver on November 29, 2021, 09:55:30 am
There's just one shame though. Can't for the life of me convince my sister or her SO to take jab 1 or jab 2, let alone jab 3. She's convinced this jab'll mutate her genome, but didn't bat an eyelid at any flu shot, chicken pox or tetanus jab before
Those were just 3G shots though, they're not as dangerous
Post by: TamerVirus on November 29, 2021, 10:05:12 am
But by then we’ll be dealing with the Sigma virus
Post by: dragdeler on November 29, 2021, 10:29:09 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 29, 2021, 10:36:56 am
Those were just 3G shots though, they're not as dangerousPfizer Cherry is just too dangerous, and don't even get me started on Diet Pfizer. Gimme some of that classic shots
Easy bet that by March, there will be an omicron specific booster.Beta: waits for the new vaccine
But by then we’ll be dealing with the Sigma virus
Sigma: waits for the new variant
Quarantinillionaire grindset
Post by: Telgin on November 29, 2021, 11:04:02 am
But by then we’ll be dealing with the Sigma virus
"Are you ready for round two?"
In seriousness, I think we've got all of the evidence we need that this will become an endemic virus at this point. Vaccines are necessarily reactionary and we'll never get a high enough immunity level to stop it from mutating again.
Post by: Vector on November 29, 2021, 06:26:24 pm
Post by: dragdeler on November 29, 2021, 06:47:29 pm
*ffs I don't even know what reference actually stems from, maybe I'm just in this forum to use every bit of english I memorized.
Post by: Vector on November 29, 2021, 06:49:17 pm
Post by: TD1 on November 29, 2021, 06:54:12 pm
Fakedit: Oh look, ninjas.
Post by: Vector on November 29, 2021, 07:01:11 pm
Post by: LordBaal on November 29, 2021, 07:21:57 pm
Post by: delphonso on November 29, 2021, 07:25:43 pm
Post by: Frumple on November 29, 2021, 07:39:23 pm
Post by: LordBaal on November 29, 2021, 07:39:49 pm
Post by: NJW2000 on November 29, 2021, 07:48:15 pm
Post by: dragdeler on November 29, 2021, 07:50:52 pm
Post by: martinuzz on November 30, 2021, 04:05:54 am
Post by: LordBaal on November 30, 2021, 08:12:44 am
Pedro is the same joyful kid playing allll day without stop. Besides some occasional sneezing he is perfectly fine. My wife keep checking his temp constantly, already talked to his doc to be on alert (via whatsapp) and we asked pete to tell us if he feels bad in any way or shape inmediately.
I keep with flu like symptoms. Annoying but hardly lethal. Keep checking how deep I can breathe and for many seconds I can keep my breathe. The deepness is a bit smaller, the lenght of hold is still the same.
We are 100% isolated, my uncle and his girlfriend are keeping in their side of the house and already agreed to not come to this side for at least two weeks.
My wife's mom and siter are here on a visit and now have to remain here, they are on another room and will try to keep contact at minimum, so far they have 0 symptoms.
Post by: Vector on November 30, 2021, 07:24:42 pm
Post by: LordBaal on November 30, 2021, 09:48:09 pm
Thanks a lot Vector, I really apreciate it! This forum has to be the best one over all the internet.
Post by: delphonso on December 01, 2021, 02:40:58 am
Pfizer's pill is up for review next and even if it's less effective by the same margin, it's aiming to be a great cure.
Post by: feelotraveller on December 01, 2021, 03:14:18 am
Post by: delphonso on December 01, 2021, 03:18:08 am
Post by: wierd on December 01, 2021, 03:23:35 am
The pill is essentially an analog of (iirc) Uracil, an amino base pair. The enzyme that replicates the viral genome cant tell the analog from the real thing, and zips up the analog when transcribing the genome for replication, resulting in defective copies.
That's how it works.
Post by: martinuzz on December 01, 2021, 04:16:58 am
EDIT: in other news, Combating the virus is meeting unexpected resistance: Dutch labor laws. All the people that have been manning the test streets and the vaccination streets have been working on temporary ('flexwork') contracts. Now that the crisis is already in it's third year, those contract have reached the point where they cannot be extended anymore. The law demands that they would have to be turned into permanent contracts. But there's no funding for that. So a lot of those workers will need to be fired, and can only come back after a 6 month cooldown period.
Post by: LordBaal on December 01, 2021, 07:17:56 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 01, 2021, 08:06:05 am
Post by: TamerVirus on December 01, 2021, 06:00:07 pm
Post by: Vector on December 02, 2021, 12:48:20 am
Post by: LordBaal on December 02, 2021, 08:01:10 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 02, 2021, 11:26:51 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on December 02, 2021, 12:23:01 pm
Post by: martinuzz on December 02, 2021, 12:39:55 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 02, 2021, 12:48:45 pm
The person giving your booster probably got the yips, or just didn’t like the look of you.
Post by: LordBaal on December 02, 2021, 01:02:36 pm
Edit: on second thought your pain was obviously the 5g tracking chip to mutate your adn into gay adn.
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 02, 2021, 04:38:44 pm
That seems like the error of the person giving the shot, not a quality of the shots themselves.Yeah; my first pfizer was barely a pinprick and I had almost total mobility of my arm the next day. Second they were in a hurry and though it was not painful, there was much bruising and my arm was dead the next day. This one was probably just an unfortunately timed jitter jolting their vaccine hand. Tomorrow my arm may fall off.
However I can see why people would say the flu shot was more painful. They used a different needle which definitely felt "sharper" in my arm than the others. Hard to explain, but it was significantly more noticeable even if I didn't mind it
Edit: on second thought your pain was obviously the 5g tracking chip to mutate your adn into gay adn.Impossible, my country is incapable of rolling out 5G ;[
*EDIT
Given the trend, my fourth shot will be administered via adamantine spear
Post by: martinuzz on December 03, 2021, 11:37:08 pm
It is proposed to move large celebrations that take place during cold months towards the summer.
So, (at least for the nothern hemisphere) may to august is for New Year's Eve, Carnival, Easter, Christmas, Ascension Day, Pesach, Yom Kippur, Ramadan etc., while september to march will be for Facemask, Lockdown and Social Distancefest.
EDIT: In other news, the Brasilian Supreme Court has started an inquiry into president Bolsonaro spreading the fake news that corona vaccins give you AIDS.
Post by: King Zultan on December 04, 2021, 02:46:37 am
Post by: LordBaal on December 04, 2021, 09:19:51 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 04, 2021, 01:49:01 pm
Pff dont be a fool, the 5G chips mutate your DNA into gay DNA, which automatically give you aids because only gay peiple get aids doesnt it?This nonsense is sooo hard to beat. Even in our gay-parade-gay-paradise-gay-heaven-gays-have-equal-and-all-rights country of the Netherlands, it wasn't until a few months ago that the law was changed, so that gays are now allowed to donate blood.... But only if they can prove they have a steady relationship... What the fuck. As if straight folks don't cheat and fuck around (without condom and anal) every day every week :P
One night stands are the most common form of relationship over here for everyone generation X and younger, regardless of sexual orientation.
Post by: martinuzz on December 04, 2021, 01:58:16 pm
It has now been cancelled, because it became so popular so fast, it was creating dangerous traffic situations.
People will now have to just await their invitation and make an appointment (which for most people will take a few months of waiting. Our government hopes to start booster-shotting people under age 60 starting next month).
EDIT: In other news, judging by the spread rate and hospital admission rate in South Africa and neighboring countries, this omicron variant might be a game changer, which will take us from 'we just need to vaccinate 90% of the world population' to 'game over man, just curl up in a ball and hope you don't die'.
Post by: Vector on December 04, 2021, 03:35:22 pm
Me: "No mom, that's pre-Christmas propaganda."
Fucking. Great.
Additional: Omicron shows surge in hospitalizations especially in children below age 5 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new-omicron-fears-as-variant-puts-huge-numbers-of-kids-under-5-years-old-in-hospital-in-south-africa/ar-AARqytv).
Post by: Ziusudra on December 04, 2021, 04:34:39 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on December 04, 2021, 07:15:55 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 05, 2021, 10:00:11 am
Post by: TamerVirus on December 05, 2021, 10:05:43 am
why is that in the business section reutersBecause they classify healthcare and pharma as business
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 05, 2021, 02:40:47 pm
why is that in the business section reutersReuters is a business/economics news company. All of its news is contextualised around the notion of "will this affect stonks" or "muh gdp". It is also one of the highest quality news sources out there, but I don't think that's ever been a high bar to cross.
Post by: martinuzz on December 13, 2021, 06:53:32 am
Latest research shows that of all those tested positive in the London area, 40% have been infected with omikron.
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 13, 2021, 08:08:30 am
This omikron variant is spreading fast.We also had our first omicron variant death confirmed today. Meanwhile Boris Johnson is defending against accusations that he held a Christmas party at No. 10 downing street (government head office) during lockdown
Latest research shows that of all those tested positive in the London area, 40% have been infected with omikron.
Post by: Starver on December 13, 2021, 10:33:47 am
And he's promising boosters for everyone 18+ from Wednesday, ignoring/skimming over the fact that there aren't the logistics to do that. But he's promised them, which makes him look good, and will probably blame the inevitable non-availability upon anything-but-him.
Sorry, a bit of UKPol there. I'm not sure how he bumbles through these things so imperviously, but unlikely anything will come of this situation either.
Post by: scriver on December 14, 2021, 02:32:02 am
Post by: Ziusudra on December 14, 2021, 03:03:22 am
I'm getting my third dose today. Wish me luck with the side effectsMy 3rd wasn't as bad as the 2nd, with acetaminophen and ibuprofen it was barely noticable.
Post by: Starver on December 14, 2021, 07:40:32 am
I'm getting my third dose today. Wish me luck with the side effectsYou remind me. When I got my Booster (Moderna), I didn't get the mountain of paperwork I got for both my AZ shots, or that someone I know earlier got with their Pfizer boost (again, on top of 2xAZ).
It was just the one 'jabber' (of two at the small site doing parallel queue-calling) rather than the jabber+assistant pairs (and army of others booking us in and marshalling around) in the prior mass-vaccination centres, so maybe a bit laxer/san fairy-ann in general. Seemed much more concerned to tell me that my Covid App (which I have never had, therefore used) would be updated within 48 hours.
So far, so good, though. (Well, the jag hurt, I think more than the prior ones, and I don't know whether the funny taste in the roof of my mouth was just a psychosomatic herald of the "oi! You've got something nasty in here!" later coming from my circulating anti-insurgency troops.)
edit: Oh yeah, and the order of business included (after negotiating which arm and my removing my jacket to facilitate) first the needle going in and then "Erm, just to check, are you on any blood-thinning medication?" (No, as it happens, not so much as an aspirin.) Not sure that wasn't supposed to be a pre-puncture question.
Post by: Amaranth on December 15, 2021, 02:28:41 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Rolan7 on December 15, 2021, 02:39:03 am
We know this because...
"Also this has not been adequately tested!"
Yeah I heard enough. There's a reason this is a "streamable" link instead of anything reliable.
Imagine simping for a disease, just because a fascist dismissed it as not a big deal. This timeline is so fucked.
"We need at least 5 years of testing" yeah we HAD that, the process has been tested for longer than that. This handsome silver-haired dipshit would have us sit on our fingers and die.
I'm really worried about my parents, and my one remaining grandparent. I guess that's an appeal to emotion - I just want to point out that I keep giving this BS a chance, and never once have I seen a convincing argument. It's just a shotgun of BS.
Post by: scriver on December 15, 2021, 08:33:43 am
I dont trust the medical companies to put people's health --especially long-term -- above pushing vaccines out fast. I wish the new vaccines could've had the length and wide of use and proof-by-time that the old well used vaccines have. But we are not in the position where such things are feasible. The disease is here now, it's killing millions, and we have to do something about it. It's either using what vaccines we have to prevent it or shutting society down entirely for his knows how long. Our house is on fire, and we can't not use the water hose out of worry of long-term water damage.
Post by: Starver on December 15, 2021, 09:46:02 am
What has been rone here is to quickly agree what problems there are (e.g. don't squirt water at oil-fires or electrical items), based upon prior fire-fighting experience, and what signifies good or bad quenchings, then start with a small amount of water-flow, see that it gets a sample sofa (not on fire) wet, but no obvious issues that prior sofa-drenching has proved to be troublesome, re-aiming on the smouldering easy-chair to see that it stops smouldering, then direct the stream onto the rest of the furniture that's in danger, thus saving more of the house from fire, knowing that there still might be irecoverable water-damage for some things, but nothing that should cause neighbours the worry that a whole burning house would and a lot more rectifiable than if most of your precious things are now a mix of simple/complex oxides in the air or on the ground, and most of the rest melted at least cracked.
If the hosepiping was shown to be actually harmful (you were trying to use gasoline, not water) or the household items themselves unexpectedly problematic to pour water on (those chesspieces you had cast from pure lithium might not be helping!) then you would have rushed to stop the water (but not send the fire-tender away) and work out what else you can do (powder? foam?).
And if the fire, unbeknownst to you, has ready reached the neighbouring roofspave then you can quickly drench that and/or get some of the firefighters to make preventative fire-breaks exactly how they've been trained.
In reality, the vaccine programmes were not rushed, merely compressed out of expediency. Factories were set up to start producing vaccines very early on, while the initial in-human studies were still being looked at, at the risk that the designed-for vaccine would be scrapped (as they could easily be) and the massive production investment would be wasted, or need to be reallocated. The same levels of scrutiny (more or less, and possibly more!) were cast upon the trial results and some candidate treatments/protectives were indeed abandoned (as they would have been in the more long and drawn-out versions of investigations). Even some (most?) of the successful ones had to have pauses during or between certain phases of study, just to check that unrelated deaths (in at least one case, I think it was a car-accident!) were in fact truly unrelated.
Which is not to say that the fast-track (or, rather, concertinaed) study plan should be used for everything from now on. Novel painkillers don't need this as much. HIV treatments probably can be developed without, given the current arsenal of preventatives and mitigating treatments. (In both examples, a very few hard cases may be temptingly used to urge the 'rushing' of ways to help individuals who aren't responding to these existing ones. That's for the experts to argue over, though.) Yet it should show what can be done, without making things go bad through insufficient regulation or other errors.
Post by: TamerVirus on December 15, 2021, 11:03:41 am
Bold choice to introduce Robert Malone to the thread is all I'll say
Post by: Telgin on December 15, 2021, 11:31:59 am
There's no way to know that it caused it, but I am curious if this is a known potential side effect from vaccines in general. Unfortunately, trying to research that on Google has become impossible because any search query with the word vaccine in it is dominated by unrelated results.
I got a third dose about two weeks ago and it doesn't seem to have caused any new issues at least.
Post by: None on December 15, 2021, 11:42:01 am
I'll miss you, onions. Garlic, we might need to have a talk.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 15, 2021, 11:55:57 am
Post by: scriver on December 15, 2021, 12:09:57 pm
In reality, the vaccine programmes were not rushed, merely compressed out of expediency.
That's literally just corpo speak for rushed
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 15, 2021, 12:18:20 pm
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/vaccines-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines-development-evaluation-approval-monitoring
Several parts of the testing and development process were done simultaneously. This was in part thanks to improved logistics, and in part thanks to copious ammounts of funding (IE: there was both money upfront AND a commitment to buy large amounts of the drugs at preestablished prices. This gave companies security to start mass production AHEAD of approval).
Stop saying it was rushed. It was not rushed. All vaccines went through rigorous testing before the market. Seriously, if we can make this kind of approval process more standarized for orphan designations the world will be better off for it.
Post by: scriver on December 15, 2021, 12:42:56 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on December 15, 2021, 02:17:03 pm
There was additional risk that effort and money would be wasted, but the reliability of the testing wasn't compromised. So I'm going to avoid saying that the vaccine was rushed because that conveys an entirely incorrect message.
Post by: Starver on December 15, 2021, 03:02:47 pm
If anything, it's safer. If the study group don't pick up AEs during collection, the review group(s) get opportunity to alert them as they perhaps spot them. And before the
Post by: McTraveller on December 15, 2021, 03:12:23 pm
Humans are just bad at understanding the difference between relative and absolute risk, and there are parties that like to abuse that poor level of understanding.
I mean seriously, if you can double your chances at winning the lottery, is that a good choice? What about trying to get your chances at winning the lottery 100x better?
...and this isn't even considering that the useful comparison isn't the vaccine compared to no vaccine and not getting sick - the useful comparison is the vaccine compared to the probability of effect without a vaccine, which includes getting COVID. Unless I'm mistaken and the "background rate" was updated to be recent history including the "background" rate of infected people rather than the long-term rate that probably doesn't include COVID infections.
Post by: martinuzz on December 18, 2021, 05:47:12 am
Post by: Amaranth on December 21, 2021, 12:15:18 am
Exactly. Enjoy your new genome and subservience.
Post by: hector13 on December 21, 2021, 12:28:51 am
Also, subservience to what?
Post by: King Zultan on December 21, 2021, 02:01:27 am
Post by: TamerVirus on December 21, 2021, 09:38:35 am
Also, subservience to what?The archonic wardens that run this prison planet
Post by: None on December 21, 2021, 09:39:11 am
A new genome? That’s a new one on microchips.
Also, subservience to what?
Oh, you hadn't heard? The covid vaccine changes your genes. It's that messenger RNA stuff that gets used to make proteins, except in whacko crockpot theory world where it's probably seeded to travel backwards in time and, by reverse reverse transcription process, replaces your real DNA with phony Super-Anti-Patriot DNA.
Perhaps DNA actually stands for 'Democrat Needs Adjustment,' which is why they're all getting jabbed into sad, small pp low-testosterone communists that do nothing but are the greatest threat to mankind!
--
Anyways, they'll never elaborate, of course, or provide information on how it supposedly modifies your genes, and you'll hear this bullshit from people who really, really should know better (fuck you, MU podcast, your team is literally 50% biologist) or should have completed a biology course at a high-school level. But, well, wouldn't be the first time people did their own research and fabricated alternative facts, since consensus reality is clearly subjective. ::)
Post by: Starver on December 21, 2021, 12:58:03 pm
Of course, once you know a little bit about inheritance and the "book of life" you can get a bit insecure about what might change those master blueprints (or, in the case of the gonads, change the blueprints that the "make a new self-assembly factory" area of the workshop floor dutifully tries to hand on to the new kit). But it's pretty much scaremongering.
There is much deeper 'gene therapy' being explored for other conditions, and the clinical trials for those have humdingers of safety protocols and post-treatment followup regimes. But none of the Covid treatments need to get this messy (or are anywhere as hit-or-miss at invoking the desired effect in the first place).
Post by: Vector on December 21, 2021, 01:10:50 pm
I was never in the same room as him and he always wore a mask indoors, and I got my booster last week, so. . . hopefully I don't die! LOL Time to stock up on a week or two of food before I could possibly become contagious.
Post by: nenjin on December 21, 2021, 01:54:57 pm
Post by: Frumple on December 21, 2021, 03:42:06 pm
*Well, actually hopeful would be hoping to just not catch the plague at all, but, y'know. Florida. You got to adjust your expectations, unfortunately.
Post by: Egan_BW on December 21, 2021, 04:25:41 pm
Or, at least, that's what they want us to think.
Post by: Rolan7 on December 21, 2021, 04:41:32 pm
Also I should wear a mask because "there'll be a lot of college kids around", the stores are out of everything, we're about to get pre-ww2-germany levels of inflation, and also do I want to pick his mother up from the nursing home for Christmas dinner? Not at his house, but the big family get-together with young cousins and older relatives about an hour away.
I said probably not
And eventually let him believe it was about me being afraid of catching Covid myself. sure.
Post by: Starver on December 21, 2021, 04:50:28 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on December 21, 2021, 05:01:46 pm
Post by: Amaranth on December 21, 2021, 07:05:06 pm
Fair enough I suppose your livelyhood didn't have the sword of damacles hanging over it? Nor did anyone have to be mandated to take the innoculation?!
Oh I must have slipped into a different dimensions just to post.
Beyond all that if you willingly fell for the propoganda then you don't need to be told to OBEY.
I'm sorry for the situation people are in and I would never do this to my people.
I would never order military to assasinate foreign parliamentary members because they didn't fall in line with the global goals.
You need to give consent for everything. To live your soul must consent. You must find the truth yourself and only then does it make sense.
You never gave consent to the truth.
Post by: None on December 21, 2021, 07:16:42 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 21, 2021, 07:59:58 pm
Show a little love and compassion to your fellow man: get vaccinated.
Edit: to be perfectly honest I want to ask about the truth we’re apparently missing, but I don’t like that I feel like doing so will result in you probably being either humiliated or (metaphorically) eviscerated.
Post by: Amaranth on December 21, 2021, 09:08:12 pm
That's a lot of words to say a lot of nothing with.
Post by: Amaranth on December 21, 2021, 09:26:48 pm
How do you control a virus? Control its environment.
How do you control a human? Control its environment.
The universe spins on irony and juxtaposition it's just hard to see when the consciousness is always at the center of it.
Post by: TamerVirus on December 21, 2021, 10:04:18 pm
I don't think it'll be fruitful endeavor
Post by: hector13 on December 21, 2021, 11:01:33 pm
Then you suggest that the governments involved in these measures assassinate members of foreign governments who don’t toe the line, which is why, of course, the entire Republican Party in America has been eliminated, and the 99 rebel members of the Conservative party in the UK that voted against bringing back these measures have been disappeared - never mind that the measures had been stopped for months in the first place which flies in the face of what you’re saying.
Then some shite about consent, which doesn’t even make sense philosophically. “You never gave consent to the truth” doesn’t work on absolute truth, which doesn’t care if you consent because it just is, or relative truth, which doesn’t matter if you consent because your truth is not the same as someone else’s truth.
All (except the consent part) requires a conspiracy which involves literally thousands of people from different nations each with their own mutually exclusive drives and motives to have cooperated without even one person dissenting for an entire two years.
I also realize this is an entirely pointless exercise, but you act as though I’m arguing in bad faith about this, but I suppose I want to see what you say next.
It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion, and I hate myself for indulging in it. I’m better than this, but fuck it the Christmas season is horrible and misery loves company.
Post by: King Zultan on December 22, 2021, 03:08:32 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 22, 2021, 03:14:18 am
EDIT: This is how I think about the antivaxxers and conspiracy theorists in general.
Partially because I really think that they suffer from 'persistent delusions', which is a class A red flag for psychosis / schizophrenia and related disorders, but moreso, for my own peace of mind.
If I were to consider them actually sane, I would be outraged and angry with the lot.
As long as I can consider them as psychiatric patients, I can still feel pity and compassion. I don't want to be angry all the time.
Post by: scriver on December 22, 2021, 03:43:26 am
Hey, buddy, you're going down a controversial path here.
I don't think it'll be fruitful endeavor
Says the guy with the virus name!
Post by: wierd on December 22, 2021, 03:54:20 am
They are the end product of post-truth, and persistent political spin.
The Left has thier own versions, but are usually harmless, where the post truthers in the right tend to cause active harm.
Compare and contrast: "orgone pyramids and crystal healing in the age of aquarius" with "Baby eating reptilian overlords hungering for adenochrome!"
The rightwing version tends to proceed from a carefully cultivated narrative that "they are out to get you!", which is a propaganda tactic as old as mankind. This tends to manifest negative delusions, which result in further ideation, paranoia, and hypersensitivity to things outside the familiar or ordinary. Political groups averse to diversity, change, or curiosity favor instilling this state in thier supporters, and so such fraudulent messages are frequently broadcast.
The leftwing version tends to focus on an impossible, mystical level of inclusion, integration, or benevolence, with a strong belief that this is both real and attainable. The proponents of this view in politics tend to take the route of "religion is the opiate of the masses", and that "fat, happy people are easy to persuade, and control."
It is important to realize that this is a race to the bottom, in terms of compounding consequences. Both sides are not true monsters, bent on mindwashing. Rather, they perceive the ither as engaging in it, and then increase the degree of the propaganda messaging accordingly to try and reach a balance. This just motivates both sides to greater acts of divisive politick, and propaganda.
In short, it produces and sustains post-truth.
Critical evaluation, with a shared and empirically derived concept of a real physical world, is excluded by both propaganda approaches, as such would be resistant to the propaganda.
You do not need shadowy figures to have propaganda; just election campaign thinktanks.
In the case of rightwing propaganda, you have Heritage Group, Breitbart, Fox, and pals.
In the case of the Left Wing (which has moved away from the magic crystal hippy stuff and more and more toward neoliberalism as a pure belief) you have things like the clinton foundation, the DNC super PAC machinery, and more liberal press.
In both cases, the ribald denial of reality (No limits to growth! No reason to restrict trade or movement of people! World Govt is attainable, despite cultural and religious differences! / "THEY ARE OUT TO GET YOU, CONTROL YOUR THOUGHTS AND MAKE YOU A PART OF THE HIVE MIND!!! DOOOOOOOOOM!!") leads to systemically incorrect worldviews that are carefully selected for, and purposefully sustained.
Normal people end up in one of the end result populations, based on the media they consume.
They are not mentally ill. They are victims of post-truth.
Post by: Frumple on December 22, 2021, 08:09:13 am
Post by: Sirus on December 22, 2021, 09:35:31 am
That shivering was something else, though. Full on teeth chattering and full body shakes. Thought maybe a cold front had gone through or something.
Post by: Frumple on December 22, 2021, 10:15:29 am
Actually felt genuinely, sustainably cold for the first time in... probably over a decade, I'unno. House wasn't even remotely cold enough to make me shiver like that under normal circumstances, heh. It's backed off a bit on that front, but I am wildly exhausted. Hit the point hours ago you're tired enough it's hard to sleep, blech.
Post by: Starver on December 22, 2021, 10:31:31 am
For my part:
- Oxford/AZ first dose (of the viral vector type) - Very notable effects, from a few hours later and lasting about a day; Bodily aches and general roughness, clearly starting at the injection site (otherwise no trouble with the competently made injection).
- Oxford/AZ second dose (v.v.) - Lesser but similar feelings, short delay of onset and quicker to pass.
- Moderna booster (mRNA) - Not sure. Possibly purely psychosomatic tingling in the roof of the mouth, and itchy shoulders (both!) if that wasn't something like too much washing powder used for my freshly donned clothing. Anything else, as a reaction was lost in the general daily fluctuations of awareness. Though the injection itself (given with the roughness and lack of subtlety of an inverse-vampire!) hurt much more and left my upper-arm sore for more than a week!
(PS. No actual shivering, in any case. But I got out of the habit of shivering as a child. I think if I started shivering again I'd be actually quite worried, and I manage quite well in single-figure (°C, that is!) temperatures under normal circumstances.)
Post by: wierd on December 22, 2021, 11:37:44 am
Shot 1: no real reaction. Mild injection site pain.
Shot 2: 24hrs of chills and flu like symptoms.
Shot 3: we'll find out tonight. Freshly jabbed.
Post by: None on December 22, 2021, 11:42:03 am
Moderna booster gave me that achy arm, hefty fatigue, maybe general body ache? It sucked. I forget exactly, but after the first bout, I made sure to schedule at the very start of a weekend. Onset came about 6 hours after the jab. Cleared up in 24-36 hours.
I think I got ahead of the booster by nursing a bottle of ibuprofen- I wasn't sure what to expect with JnJ, so my self-care response was somewhat lacking.
They're rough shots, for sure. Maybe I'll try to get Pfizer if/when the third bout is necessary, keep things lively, spite my siblings, etc.
Post by: martinuzz on December 22, 2021, 11:55:50 am
I think I got ahead of the booster by nursing a bottle of ibuprofen- I wasn't sure what to expect with JnJ, so my self-care response was somewhat lacking.
Personally, I would not take medication that suppresses inflammation response of your immune system, even if it is only very slightly, when I get a vaccin that needs to work together with the immune system.
Having your immune system not work at it's full capacity could mean that you also won't get the full benefit of the vaccin.
Post by: Starver on December 22, 2021, 12:15:31 pm
As it was, I just don't take much of anything anyway (though I occasionally buy something and then forget that I've got lemsips or capsules right in the back of some cupboard, until I realise they're years beyond their Use By in some general long-delayed reshuffling exercise) and I actually dread the time I may find I have to have a regular regime of pill-popping.
I had the packet I'd forgotten about during shot 1 (and found shortly afterwwrds) ready at hand for shot 2, but didn't get anywhere near as 'necessary'. I was just too busy around the time of the booster to similarly dig them out, but nothing (not even the impact/needling damage of the rough injection) took me to the point where I even had a moment's thought that I'd desire it. It's only just now that you're getting me to deconstruct my particular scenario that I'm even remembering that I had the option. ;)
Post by: None on December 22, 2021, 01:01:56 pm
I think I got ahead of the booster by nursing a bottle of ibuprofen- I wasn't sure what to expect with JnJ, so my self-care response was somewhat lacking.
Personally, I would not take medication that suppresses inflammation response of your immune system, even if it is only very slightly, when I get a vaccin that needs to work together with the immune system.
Having your immune system not work at it's full capacity could mean that you also won't get the full benefit of the vaccin.
Is that how that works?I reckon the immune system would just continue doing 'the stuff' until the vaccinebits are spent. Sure didn't need the inflammation in my noggin...
Post by: hector13 on December 22, 2021, 02:16:13 pm
First dose: sore injection site that got steadily worse over the Friday I had the shot to the point I couldn’t sleep on that side on Friday or Saturday evening. Saturday had mild cold symptoms, general mild achiness.
Second dose: sore injection that got a little bad but didn’t bother me too much.
I’m not sure if my arm soreness had anything to do with how the injection was given, as the first dose was noticeably painful going on, while the second was not.
Probably won’t get a booster, but the second dose was received in August so I probably also don’t need one for the time being.
Post by: martinuzz on December 22, 2021, 03:40:14 pm
Is that how that works?I reckon the immune system would just continue doing 'the stuff' until the vaccinebits are spent. Sure didn't need the inflammation in my noggin...It is a numbers game for some part. The harder your immune system works with the vaccine, the more memory cells that will form from the white blood cells fighting the battle.
Then again, I suppose you are right in that the numbers are capped by the number of vaccin particles, but I do suspect that part of those will just be excreted by your body without meeting your full immune response.
Post by: Vector on December 22, 2021, 06:25:18 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on December 22, 2021, 11:38:28 pm
Personally, I would not take medication that suppresses inflammation response of your immune system, even if it is only very slightly, when I get a vaccin that needs to work together with the immune system.When I got the booster the pharmacist told me to take some to control symptoms and here's Newsweek reporting (https://www.newsweek.com/can-you-take-advil-before-after-covid-vaccine-1576833) that the CDC says the same:
Having your immune system not work at it's full capacity could mean that you also won't get the full benefit of the vaccin.
Quote
"You can take these medications to relieve post-vaccination side effects if you have no other medical reasons that prevent you from taking these medications normally," the CDC says.
That said, even when actually sick, I'll wait until symptoms get bad enough to warrant intervention. I'm just generally personally adverse to pharmacology, but too high of a fever causes tissue damage and AFIAK the fever doesn't actually help in the antibody training process.
Post by: Rolan7 on December 23, 2021, 12:01:04 am
I'm probably getting my booster tomorrow. Not lying to get a double dose like my father said, jfc, but just getting a bit updated.
I sorta went off on an anti-vaxer in a forum today. I'm not a hateful person. I always want to see the good in my political opponents, their humanity, because I often learn and evolve whether they're right or wrong.
You can't do that with Covid cultists. I have been bombarded with claims and, when you push back on one - it is replaced with two. There's nothing there. They are people, justifiably terrified at the wildness that is our modern life, deciding that malicious villains are doing it to us - and they literally won't be convinced otherwise because they are in a cult.
A cult in all senses. It rewards good thought, and shatters bad thought with static.
"Oh but listening to the main stream media is the same" yes, actually. My dad's a fine example.
But research actually is possible, and none of these pro-covid arguments actually stands up to any investigation unless you assume that every virologist is in the pocket of big parentheses or whatever. Or "the deep state". Yeah fam, the deep state wants to kill us all off /s
That's literally what these people believe, and by doing so I'm pretty sure that they've killed us all. I'm feeling a bit doomer lately and it's hard to shake off.
Post by: Vector on December 23, 2021, 01:19:50 am
I felt my first tooth chatter and the meds went down the hatch. Definitely recommend at least having the medication on hand, you need to think about this like something you need to be willing to do every 6 months for as long as it takes. Personally my job is enough "just muscle through it" that I don't want to make the rest of my life any harder than necessary.
Post by: Rolan7 on December 23, 2021, 01:25:50 am
I guess I've heard it's rougher on some people, and I'm sorry.
Edit: I suffer from fevers occasionally and I'm used to them. It's not easy, but they're a part of life.
When you're trying to trigger an immune response, it's a really good thing.
Post by: Vector on December 23, 2021, 01:34:49 am
Anyway, I didn't think that when they said "joint pain" or "pain at the injection site" they meant that kind of pain from the back of your neck down to your fingertips on the injection arm, but we're learning things now u_u For me the fever was nothing, but I have a friend who was in bed shivering under five blankets at peak summer. Also, for those who menstruate, be aware that it can fuck up your periods so do your research and plan accordingly.
No intention of comparing e-peens, heh. Just trying to say that yes, there are absolutely people who it doesn't bother, like people for whom it is really like any other vaccination, but there are also people who get knocked on their ass for a couple days, so it's a good idea to be ready to take care of yourself because you won't know which camp you're in until it actually happens. The more prepared you are, the more likely it is that it won't be a big deal even if you don't win the side-effect lottery.
Post by: Frumple on December 23, 2021, 05:37:16 am
I'm also a "generally don't take pills" person (mostly because when I was doing it for eyesight induced headaches as a child, it seemed to actually make things worse over the long run), but like. Fuuuuck that when you're shaking like an overloaded beatbox on full blast. Mild fever symptoms are just whatever, but this wasn't mild :V
Post by: Magistrum on December 23, 2021, 08:21:17 am
Post by: Egan_BW on December 23, 2021, 10:03:11 am
Must be that my political opinions were already correctly aligned, huh~
Post by: wierd on December 23, 2021, 11:19:53 am
Shot 3 produced mild flulike symptoms, with low grade fever. Slight joint irritation, but nothing major.
Slight injection site pain.
Shot 2 put me under harder.
Post by: LordBaal on December 23, 2021, 11:24:33 am
Post by: None on December 23, 2021, 11:47:14 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 23, 2021, 12:57:28 pm
Post by: LordBaal on December 23, 2021, 12:58:45 pm
Post by: Starver on December 23, 2021, 04:14:12 pm
- Vaccines that are currently authorised (in at least one region)
- Abdala (Subunit Vaccine) - Cuba
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .cu, .ni, .ve, .vn
- CAMS (Inactivated Virus) - Chinese
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .cn
- Convidecia (Viral Vector) - Chinese
- Fully authorised in .cn
- Emergency authorisation in <10 other areas
- CoronaVac (Inactivated Virus) - Chinese
- Fully authorised in .cn
- Emergency authorisation in a large number of other areas
- COVAX-19 (Protein Subunit) - Iran
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .ir
- Covaxin (Inactivated Virus) - Indian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in a small number of areas
- COVIran (Inactivated Virus) - Iranian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .ir
- CoviVac (Inactivated Virus) - Russian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in Belarus, Russia
- EpiVacCorona (Peptide Vaccine) - Russian
- Fully authorised in Turkmenistan
- Emergency authorisation in Belarus and Russia.
- FAKHRAVAC - a.k.a. MIVAK, for those that don't like huge acronyms standing for whoknowswhat! (Inactivated Virus) - Iranian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .ir
- Janssen (Viral Vector) - Israeli
- Fully authorised in .au, .ca, .ch
- Emergency authorisation in many other areas
- Suspended (rare blood clot incidents) in a small number of countries, and restrictions to just the higher age-groups in other areas.
- Medigen (Protein Subunit) - Taiwanese
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .tw
- Minhai (Inactivated Virus) - Chinese
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .cn, .id
- Moderna (mRNA) - American
- Fully authorised in .au, .br, ca, .ch .uk
- Emergency authorisation in many other areas.
- Novavax (Subunit Vaccine) - Indian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in a small number of areas
- Oxford/AZ (Viral Vector) - British/Swedish
- Fully authorised in .au, .br, .ca
- Emergency authorisation in many other areas
- Suspended (rare blood clot incidents) in a handful of countries, with restrictions to just the higher age-groups in other areas.
- Pfizer/BioNTech (mRNA) - German/American
- Fully authorised in .au, .br, ca, .ch .nz, .us and some others I can't recall the TLD codes for off the top of my head
- Emergency authorisation in many other areas.
- QazCovid-in (Inactivated Virus) - Kazakhstan
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .ka, .kg
- Razi Cov Pars (Protein Subunit) - Iranian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .ir
- Sinopharm (Inactivated Virus) - Chinese
- Fully authorised in .ae, .bh, .cn (.whateverthehellisSeychelles)
- Emergency authorisation in many other areas
- Sinopharm WIBP (Inactivated Virus) - Chinese
- Fully authorised in .cn
- Emergency authorisation in 5 other areas
- Soberana 02 (Conjugate Vaccine) - Cuban
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .cu, .ir, ni
- Sputnik V (Viral Vector) - Russian
- Fully authorised in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
- Emergency authorisation in a large number of other areas
- Sputnik Light (Viral Vector, one dose version of Sputnik V) - Russian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in a small number of areas
- Zifivax (Subunit Vaccine) - Chinese
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .cn, .id, .pk, .uz
- ZyCoV-D (DNA Plasmid) - Indian
- Not fully authorised anywhere
- Emergency authorisation in .in
- Abdala (Subunit Vaccine) - Cuba
Post by: anewaname on December 23, 2021, 06:34:09 pm
I suppose I'm just the lucky one in my country and Great Britain, USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand (the five eyes) are all trialing neofacisim in their own ways and collaborating the data...I agree with this. The action of seeking the overall context of the situation and maintaining an individual integrity must remain at the core of individual decision making, even while the individual is a member of a group.
Fair enough I suppose your livelyhood didn't have the sword of damacles hanging over it? Nor did anyone have to be mandated to take the innoculation?!
Oh I must have slipped into a different dimensions just to post.
Beyond all that if you willingly fell for the propoganda then you don't need to be told to OBEY.
I'm sorry for the situation people are in and I would never do this to my people.
I would never order military to assasinate foreign parliamentary members because they didn't fall in line with the global goals.
You need to give consent for everything. To live your soul must consent. You must find the truth yourself and only then does it make sense.
You never gave consent to the truth.
But, it is an abstract idea for people to consider when "herd mode" has been triggered... and covid concerns are triggering herd-mode constantly, so, they reject it. Herd-mode is that state of mind that demands a 0 or a 1, and allows nothing in-between.
Post by: hector13 on December 23, 2021, 06:48:51 pm
My wife got Covid because somebody thought the sniffle they had wasn’t serious so went to a small gathering, which, had my wife not seen her vulnerable (in the Covid risk group sense) parents prior to that, could have killed her parents.
Equally so, despite my own behaviour being risk averse (I went to work masked, with masked co-workers and customers, masked grocery shopping, staying at home whenever possible) that resulted in my getting Covid, because I wasn’t masking up at home.
This is multiplied many times because Covid restrictions were politicized (YOU CAN’T DESTROY THE ECONOMY BECAUSE SOME PEOPLE ARE AT FURTHER RISK CULL THE WEAK CULL THE WEAK CULL THE WEAK) which meant supporters of certain political parties paid little attention to everyone else not being selfish - really, wearing a mask is not a big deal, staying away from other people is not a big deal, and staying inside in this time of global communication is… less of a big deal - so it spread despite the best efforts of the advice from authorities.
Really, locking everyone’s door for 2 weeks was the extreme, and doing nothing was the other, something in the middle was done, so don’t talk nonsense about herd mentality being about absolutes.
Post by: Frumple on December 24, 2021, 07:59:45 am
Post by: Iduno on December 24, 2021, 10:17:05 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I'm sure that peak off to the right isn't anything to worry about.
Post by: anewaname on December 24, 2021, 11:54:43 pm
Individual decision-making is a requirement for a societal setting, and for a society. Every time you obey a social law, you are making the decision to consent to it. Your covid-bringer failed at this --> "The action of seeking the overall context of the situation and maintaining an individual integrity must remain at the core of individual decision making, even while the individual is a member of a group."
Your covid-bringer chose to ignore the overall context of the situation (unknown-source-of-snivels + covid-outbreaks-everywhere = myself-as-possible-danger-to-others) and brought their germs to the party. Is this different than drunk-driving? Taking a bribe to ignore something? The payoff for the covid-bringer was the happy-herd-animal-mental-drug feeling, from socializing or from accepting another's request/demand that they attend. He should have made the individual decision to not attend, he should have dissented instead of consented to his group's request that he attend, and should have ignored the mind-chemical addiction that socializing soothes.
The herd-mode "0 or 1" is not about absolutes, it is about being forced to make an immediate choice between limited and partially understood choices and it usually triggers the release of drugs into the body. That state of mind demands a 0 or a 1, and there is no in-between. It causes some people to take actions that they would have avoided if they had more time to perceive the overall context of the situation.
You may not consider covid news to be forcing that sort of choice on people, but the news is constantly forcing it on me. Mostly, I casually learn something new about covid precautions and implement it into my way of life, but am also faced with moments where I feel the drugs hit my body as I see someone nearby violate a covid precaution or I realize I obeyed a habit that violated a covid precaution, and my recollection of those moments are still clear because the drugs marked it in my mind. Everyone is going through this... their daily life is interrupted with commands to obey and they are trying to decide if they consent to the command based on limited understanding.
And, I feel for the situation of how you got covid... that is crap.
Post by: Amaranth on December 25, 2021, 02:32:27 pm
The authoritarians live in fear, and that's why they spread fear for control. I'm here to empower people, and enhance individual freedom, not to worship the cult of authority. Individual freedom is critical for human happiness, and it's worth fighting for. It's worth dying for.
The Transhumanist Nazi Eugenicists can take their mRNA Gene Therapy Mass Sterilization Clot Shot, and shove it up their ass! We are ahead of the curve by staying vax-free, and you're not alone in refusing the "vaccine." We're the true patriots who still believe in freedom, no matter what country you're in.
Exercise a few times per week, eat lots of vegetables, avoid fast food, drink plenty of water, don't drink too much alcohol, make sure to get all your vitamins: especially vitamins A, B, C, D, and Zinc, NEVER watch the Operation Mockingbird CIA controlled mainstream media, make friends with your neighbors, buy some seeds and grow food in your backyard, read a book, start stockpiling canned goods and bottled water, get 30 minutes of sunlight every day, and don't forget to smile. Life is going to be fine. Don't buy into the fear, there's always hope!
The greatest mental deception is that individuals are powerless. This is far from the truth. We are masters of our destiny, archons of time and space, co-creators of life and liberty, but only if we believe in our limitless potential, and have hope for the future.
The powers that be wish to crush all hope under the boot of tyranny in every way possible using the monetary system, and the mass media to deceive the public, because they fear a grassroots uprising, a second renaissance of individual freedom, which will topple their power structure built upon layers of oppression and deception. The fulcrum of the power structure is fear, and hopelessness.
To eradicate fear from the hearts and minds of men is to free the world from bondage.
Fear-based propaganda, which is spread by the mass media, allows for the management and control of populations. Those who live in fear will not reproduce at a significant rate, nor will they rebel against their chains because fearful people have no hope for the future, nor have the resources to reproduce because of monetary manipulations. Thus, we see negative birthrates in most developed nations in part due to fear-based propaganda.
In addition, the monetary system plays a major role in declining birthrates in the world because people are unable to afford having children, and cannot feed them. Wealth inequality is at all time high.
We also see declining births in developed nations due to higher abortion rates, and birth control usage. Although, no government should have control over the bodily autonomy of anyone, especially women, who carry our children. To legislate against anyone’s individual sovereignty is the antithesis freedom.
Instead of legislating against abortion, which is the antithesis of individual freedom, we should champion personal responsibility in schools and empower people with knowledge to make everyone self-sufficient, instead of subliminally encouraging self-destructive lifestyles which are perpetuated by toxic celebrities, and the media’s obsession with them.
I will never encourage legislation against people reproducing either. The government can piss off. I think overpopulation is a myth too. We need more people in this world that believe in individual freedom.
Personally, I believe overpopulation is a myth because it's the way we live which is the problem. Most of us are living very destructive lifestyles, and we're very wasteful, not worrying about our sustainability, and the world is suffering the consequences as a result, politically, economically, and environmentally. The way we think needs to change.
The world could support upwards of 15-20 billion if we stop being so wasteful, start growing our own food locally, and get creative. Humanity is creative, and we need more critical thinkers to solve problems, not less. We need more people with freedom oriented minds having children.
Anyways, fear makes people predictable, and submissive. Controlling the flow of fear allows the architects of darkness, and fear to steer the herd of humanity toward their desired plan of full spectrum dominance. To create a slave world without prison bars; a prison of the mind, where fear is king, and people are subservient to their slave masters.
Hope and freedom is what the parasitic rulers fear because then they lose their levers of control. What purpose would a populace have for its masters if each person stood strong and independent within a community of like-minded individuals, who also shared and cared for each other?
Many people seem to have forgotten that the Constitution of the United States of America enshrined a government one step away from anarchy. An- meaning No, and Archons meaning Masters... ie. No Masters.
Anarchy does not mean chaos, this is another deception promulgated by the CIA controlled mainstream media, (ie. Operation Mockingbird.)
If you’re still watching the Operation Mockingbird CIA controlled “news” media, shut it off and never look back. You’re putting yourself in front of the barrel of a gun every time you watch anything from mainstream media outlets, even if it’s just for a few minutes. They’re designed to make you angry, depressed, hopeless, and fearful to keep you mind-controlled by the cult of authority.
Fear serves to paralyze people into submission, destroying their limitless potential, creating a herd of observing followers who will never act in defiance, allowing the agents of darkness to seize their heart's desire unimpeded; absolute power.
So, what is the way toward true freedom for the individual? How do we champion each person to the highest level, so they may bring about freedom for their community, and then the world? The answer first lies in food security.
Growing crops with organic heirloom seeds, mushroom farming, fish farming, hunting wild game, fishing, and foraging, are all great ways to increase our individual sovereignty decreasing our reliance on foreign powers such as our governments which are filled with parasites.
We also rely on corporations and the monetary system too much for our survival, and this must stop immediately if we’re ever to break our chains. We all need to be moving toward a way of life that we have full control over at an individual level, or at a local community level.
Seeds are a marvel of nature's engineering; God's engineering. We could never hope to create anything with such sophistication. The word Nature comes from the Egyptian word Neter which means the Nature energy of God. So, how will we ally ourselves with the forces of Nature to help change the world?
The current world relies on oil to bring products into grocery stores just in time for people to purchase them. Once oil collapses people will be left to fend for themselves. However, what if people have no need for external support at all?
By growing our own food, or at least supplementing our food needs, we can reduce our individual need for globally supplied foods, thus increasing our individual freedom, and reducing our demand on the global food network. This is how we begin spreading abundance in the world, and having more children to help change the world, and eventually one day within the galaxy when humanity expands, and inevitably encounters extraterrestrial life.
The way we think and act will have an impact on our first encounter with Extraterrestrial life. Will we be rooted in materialism and see them only as enemies that we can exploit for material gain since we're living in artificial scarcity? Or, will we share with them our way of life rooted in allying ourselves with nature, abundance, and individual freedom.
Once people have absolutely no need for the global systems distributing energy, whether through food or transportation, there will be almost no levers left to control. Fear will almost disappear because people will be capable of standing alone, or with the help of their local communities.
So, what will you choose? How will you help change the world? Are you here just to observe, or are you here to act? How will you help bolster individual freedom in the world, and break the shackles of slavery that we were all born into? I know where I want to stand, and that's with you on the front lines of freedom.
Post by: Starver on December 25, 2021, 02:49:51 pm
[...]Paging Mr Poe! Paging Mr Nathan Poe! Your vehicle is blocking a fire-hydrant....
The Transhumanist Nazi Eugenicists can take their mRNA Gene Therapy Mass Sterilization Clot Shot, and shove it up their ass! We are ahead of the curve by staying vax-free, and you're not alone in refusing the "vaccine." We're the true patriots who still believe in freedom, no matter what country you're in.
[...]
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 25, 2021, 03:33:52 pm
Humans are incredible, and our spirit of freedom will never die. No matter what they try. I will never stop being a beacon of light in this world, and nor should you.
The authoritarians live in fear, and that's why they spread fear for control. I'm here to empower people, and enhance individual freedom, not to worship the cult of authority. Individual freedom is critical for human happiness, and it's worth fighting for. It's worth dying for.
The Transhumanist Nazi Eugenicists can take their mRNA Gene Therapy Mass Sterilization Clot Shot, and shove it up their ass! We are ahead of the curve by staying vax-free, and you're not alone in refusing the "vaccine." We're the true patriots who still believe in freedom, no matter what country you're in.
Exercise a few times per week, eat lots of vegetables, avoid fast food, drink plenty of water, don't drink too much alcohol, make sure to get all your vitamins: especially vitamins A, B, C, D, and Zinc, NEVER watch the Operation Mockingbird CIA controlled mainstream media, make friends with your neighbors, buy some seeds and grow food in your backyard, read a book, start stockpiling canned goods and bottled water, get 30 minutes of sunlight every day, and don't forget to smile. Life is going to be fine. Don't buy into the fear, there's always hope!
The greatest mental deception is that individuals are powerless. This is far from the truth. We are masters of our destiny, archons of time and space, co-creators of life and liberty, but only if we believe in our limitless potential, and have hope for the future.
The powers that be wish to crush all hope under the boot of tyranny in every way possible using the monetary system, and the mass media to deceive the public, because they fear a grassroots uprising, a second renaissance of individual freedom, which will topple their power structure built upon layers of oppression and deception. The fulcrum of the power structure is fear, and hopelessness.
To eradicate fear from the hearts and minds of men is to free the world from bondage.
Fear-based propaganda, which is spread by the mass media, allows for the management and control of populations. Those who live in fear will not reproduce at a significant rate, nor will they rebel against their chains because fearful people have no hope for the future, nor have the resources to reproduce because of monetary manipulations. Thus, we see negative birthrates in most developed nations in part due to fear-based propaganda.
In addition, the monetary system plays a major role in declining birthrates in the world because people are unable to afford having children, and cannot feed them. Wealth inequality is at all time high.
We also see declining births in developed nations due to higher abortion rates, and birth control usage. Although, no government should have control over the bodily autonomy of anyone, especially women, who carry our children. To legislate against anyone’s individual sovereignty is the antithesis freedom.
Instead of legislating against abortion, which is the antithesis of individual freedom, we should champion personal responsibility in schools and empower people with knowledge to make everyone self-sufficient, instead of subliminally encouraging self-destructive lifestyles which are perpetuated by toxic celebrities, and the media’s obsession with them.
I will never encourage legislation against people reproducing either. The government can piss off. I think overpopulation is a myth too. We need more people in this world that believe in individual freedom.
Personally, I believe overpopulation is a myth because it's the way we live which is the problem. Most of us are living very destructive lifestyles, and we're very wasteful, not worrying about our sustainability, and the world is suffering the consequences as a result, politically, economically, and environmentally. The way we think needs to change.
The world could support upwards of 15-20 billion if we stop being so wasteful, start growing our own food locally, and get creative. Humanity is creative, and we need more critical thinkers to solve problems, not less. We need more people with freedom oriented minds having children.
Anyways, fear makes people predictable, and submissive. Controlling the flow of fear allows the architects of darkness, and fear to steer the herd of humanity toward their desired plan of full spectrum dominance. To create a slave world without prison bars; a prison of the mind, where fear is king, and people are subservient to their slave masters.
Hope and freedom is what the parasitic rulers fear because then they lose their levers of control. What purpose would a populace have for its masters if each person stood strong and independent within a community of like-minded individuals, who also shared and cared for each other?
Many people seem to have forgotten that the Constitution of the United States of America enshrined a government one step away from anarchy. An- meaning No, and Archons meaning Masters... ie. No Masters.
Anarchy does not mean chaos, this is another deception promulgated by the CIA controlled mainstream media, (ie. Operation Mockingbird.)
If you’re still watching the Operation Mockingbird CIA controlled “news” media, shut it off and never look back. You’re putting yourself in front of the barrel of a gun every time you watch anything from mainstream media outlets, even if it’s just for a few minutes. They’re designed to make you angry, depressed, hopeless, and fearful to keep you mind-controlled by the cult of authority.
Fear serves to paralyze people into submission, destroying their limitless potential, creating a herd of observing followers who will never act in defiance, allowing the agents of darkness to seize their heart's desire unimpeded; absolute power.
So, what is the way toward true freedom for the individual? How do we champion each person to the highest level, so they may bring about freedom for their community, and then the world? The answer first lies in food security.
Growing crops with organic heirloom seeds, mushroom farming, fish farming, hunting wild game, fishing, and foraging, are all great ways to increase our individual sovereignty decreasing our reliance on foreign powers such as our governments which are filled with parasites.
We also rely on corporations and the monetary system too much for our survival, and this must stop immediately if we’re ever to break our chains. We all need to be moving toward a way of life that we have full control over at an individual level, or at a local community level.
Seeds are a marvel of nature's engineering; God's engineering. We could never hope to create anything with such sophistication. The word Nature comes from the Egyptian word Neter which means the Nature energy of God. So, how will we ally ourselves with the forces of Nature to help change the world?
The current world relies on oil to bring products into grocery stores just in time for people to purchase them. Once oil collapses people will be left to fend for themselves. However, what if people have no need for external support at all?
By growing our own food, or at least supplementing our food needs, we can reduce our individual need for globally supplied foods, thus increasing our individual freedom, and reducing our demand on the global food network. This is how we begin spreading abundance in the world, and having more children to help change the world, and eventually one day within the galaxy when humanity expands, and inevitably encounters extraterrestrial life.
The way we think and act will have an impact on our first encounter with Extraterrestrial life. Will we be rooted in materialism and see them only as enemies that we can exploit for material gain since we're living in artificial scarcity? Or, will we share with them our way of life rooted in allying ourselves with nature, abundance, and individual freedom.
Once people have absolutely no need for the global systems distributing energy, whether through food or transportation, there will be almost no levers left to control. Fear will almost disappear because people will be capable of standing alone, or with the help of their local communities.
So, what will you choose? How will you help change the world? Are you here just to observe, or are you here to act? How will you help bolster individual freedom in the world, and break the shackles of slavery that we were all born into? I know where I want to stand, and that's with you on the front lines of freedom.
(https://sd.keepcalms.com/i/wow-that-escalated-quickly.png)
Post by: A Thing on December 25, 2021, 03:55:21 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 25, 2021, 04:28:45 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 25, 2021, 04:39:53 pm
Like, there’s a big disease going round, and they develop a vaccine to make it less serious… but the people pushing that are trying to steal your DNA and replace you with clones or whatever… but you should also take your vitamins and eat your greens, exercise, drink water… but that’s okay, nobody is molesting your vitamins or veggies, despite it being standard nutritional advice for decades, and the same Transhumanist Nazi mad fuck government controlling the water standards.
I just don’t get why some things are nefarious but other things are not.
Fear doesn’t paralyze everyone though. It’s called the fight or flight response for a reason (it should really be called fight, flight, or freeze response though) and I just need to point to the events of January 6th as a good example of that. Trump and his minions stoked the fear that people were having their future stolen, which resulted in a violent storming of the center of government.
Post by: heydude6 on December 25, 2021, 07:07:55 pm
*snip*
Can't believe I actually read all of this, but christmas day has been pretty boring and lonely. Here's my bullet-point-based summary.
- Freedom is extremely important. Worth fighting for, worth dying for
- Vaccines are a gene-rewriting poison pushed by Transhumanist Nazi Eugenicists and its better to be Vax-free. Anti-vax is pro-freedom
- Some basic health tips. Also, the media is controlled by the CIA via something called Operation Mockingbird
- Individuals are not powerless, we can make change, but only if we believe it to be possible
- The goal of the elites is to crush our belief in the ability to make positive change.
- They control us through fear, thus the path to freedom is to eradicate fear
- Elites fill us with fear, and keep us poor as a form of population control, and as a way to maintain their iron-fisted rule
- Random abortion side-track. Surprisingly, doesn't believe abortion should be banned. Believes the solution to unwanted births is to teach people healthy living habits, in contrast to the decadent lifestyles of celebrities
- Overpopulation is a myth (I agree with that). The solution to potential resources shortages is for the average citizen to be more involved in the production of the resources they use (instead of leaving it in the hands of corporations I assume).
- A population controlled by fear will not be capable of doing this though. Elites want this to enslave us though. If people realized they were capable of thinking for themselves, they wouldn't want to rely on leaders to do the thinking for them.
- The founding father's original vision of America was similar to Anarchism. Anarchy is not chaos. That is just Operation Mockingbird propaganda
- Also, stop watching the Operation Mockingbird propaganda (ie. mainstream media). All it does it fill you with fear, sap you of hope, and groom you to be a slave for the state
- Solution. Go slightly off-grid. Grow/hunt/fish for your own food. Don't rely on the parasites infesting outside powers (eg. government) to provide for you.
- Longer-term we'll have to collectively cast-off corporations and the concept of money if we want true freedom
- Seeds are amazing products of God. Work with nature. Shun fossil fuel oil. Once we run out, we'll have to learn to live without it eventually, so why not start now instead?
- Once again, grow our own food, for the sake of independence from global food supply chains, and human prosperity.
- When we one day encounter aliens, if we keep our current ways, it eventually lead to war. If we change we'll be able to co-exist in harmony.
- It's your job to choose between freedom and fear.
And that's my summary of that monster post. Guy has a vision for what he believes the future of humanity should be, but he believes the powers that control us are more malicious and organized than they actually are. Besides the second bullet-point, he doesn't really say anything about COVID.
This would frankly be classified as a quite a heavy derail, if it weren't for the sad fact that COVID has become massively politicized to the point were things such as wearing masks are now statements about whether you believe in freedom or not.
Not really interested in getting into any further analysis though. I think hector said everything that needed to be said. The merits of Anarchy are definitely something that can be endlessly debated, but I don't think this thread is the place for it.
Post by: Starver on December 25, 2021, 07:34:25 pm
I could believe that it's a very sophisticated Markov Chaining/similar, though. It's been listening to various "aggressively progressive" arguments on various social media channels and pieced together something not half bad as a copy. Definitely some extreme sophistication in there, even if it falls down on some basic information linkages. Turing-Test candidate, certainly.
If not, Turing-Test counterpart-participant? Just the right amount of unbelievability to give a half-decent AGI a fighting change in a 1-on-1 comparison.
Post by: TamerVirus on December 25, 2021, 07:59:54 pm
Post by: Stench Guzman on December 26, 2021, 12:16:27 am
Post by: King Zultan on December 26, 2021, 03:55:35 am
Post by: Amaranth on December 26, 2021, 04:21:56 am
Fighting begets violence and violence will be manipulated into political rehtoric for any cause until the media is held accountable to report without biases and are able to operate without targets on their backs.
This is seeded by fear and forms of mass consciousness control.
Then what? You're labeled a terrorist or something like this and incarcerated if not executed.
Flight is certain change and an uncontrolled factor it also won't stop what made you flee. The monster doesn't go away when you run. It remains to hurt others who fight or freeze.
Freezing isn't a good explanation for what actually happens though, because there isn't three alliterative explanations that are easily digested for anything and is one of the many social hypnopaedias that our languages subconscious enforce be it good and bad.
Beyond this the truth isn't to run or fight or commit eternal stasis and continue reincarnation into our machine.
It's to further yourself, never beyond yourself.
To understand the limit of yourself is also important.
To tell me to get a drug that I don't know what will do. None of the personel in my country that either got a 3 day crash course to innoculate or are registered nurses and doctors don't know the side effects or the ingredient list. Doctor that suggested verbally I get it while shaking his head saying No
We didn't have multiple choice here for our innoculation either and not getting many choices now instead we got the Pizza death jab and the ModeRna
You're actually being very ignorant and for sure would get shit thrown in my direction for suggesting you take a proper manly viking dose of fresh psilocybin mushrooms
It is the shittiest show in a while and everyone who "freezes" who becomes stasis. They who controls the unnatural human environment can pull the strings of the tethered puppets and the static remaining never wanting different. Borne of this artifikial world unable to leave or... Frozen in fear of the change they must make to run or fight?
It is almost a mark of your allegiance to society or at least it will be made to see like it but it is a symptom of being tethered to society. The inability to live in a 'real' world.
Very easy to see once you see how immature we are as a society not only in action but also idolized and pushed towards immaturity.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 26, 2021, 04:30:00 am
Also I'm fairly sure that you made up that story about your doctor. But if it's true I'd look for another doctor.
And yeah suggesting that people take shrooms is both a bad idea, and an explanation for the wall of text from before.
Post by: wierd on December 26, 2021, 04:46:29 am
Psilocin has real therapeutic uses, but the research suggests efficacy in the sub-psychedelic, microgram range. It should not be self-prescribed, and dosage should be consistent and monitored. Etc.
If you are experiencing negative mental states, such as paranoia or extreme aversion or fear of others, mushrooms probably arent going to be helpful; those are listed as possible negative side effects of that drug.
As for the vaccines, the one I took is mostly water, with some buffering salts, some sugar to stabilize the active ingredient, and then a short chain mRNA molecule solution.
Thats it.
The ingredient list is quite straight forward. If you think they lied about the ingredients, you would have to explain how the many dozens of independent watchdog groups that keep tabs on that stuff failed to notice. With the heated arguments about the contents of the stuff, it is very improbable that anyone could sneak something in.
I am far more worried about the virus itself, and its myriad complications to those that contract it, than I am about the vaccines, even the more suspicious ones like sputnik or sinovac.
I really think you should be too.
Post by: Amaranth on December 26, 2021, 05:13:22 am
Yep it was like a super flu and sure if I was an old frail man and shit like that id be down for a bit or dead but I'm a healthy man I ate magic mushrooms, fejoas and smoke cannabis through it. Came out with a lung infection and my asthma re immerging due to fault of my own.
Sure you cite the studies now but ten years ago there was shit all data favoured by mainstream science and you'd not even give this god given mushroom a look sideways.
Go on @wierd pull out a sentence about research you didn't participate in about a drug you've never taken in post-psychedelic, gram range. It should be self prescription like all medicine and yes I agree dosage should be Consistently high and monitored then learned from. Etc
I am not experiencing negative mental states such as paranoia or extreme aversion or any fear of others.
That's a side effect of projects mockingbird and we've gone over this, I hope this clears the confusion. But I do hear that mental cloudyness is a side effect of the innoculation.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 26, 2021, 05:38:43 am
Quote
Well no I'm not worried because the conspiracy is that we've all already had it but because testing my body for antibodies is illegal now I can't.No we haven't. And no, it's not illegal. You can pay for it and get it done. It's not meaningful either because detectable antibody titres fade after a few months, but that's another subject.
Code: [Select]
Yep it was like a super flu and sure if I was an old frail man and shit like that id be down for a bit or dead but I'm a healthy man I ate magic mushroomPlenty of formerly healthy people ended up being not so healthy post covid. Plus, the "sick and the weak" also have a right to survive you know. Quote
Go on @wierd pull out a sentence about research you didn't participate in about a drug you've never taken in post-psychedelic, gram range. It should be self prescription like all medicine and yes I agree dosage should be Consistently high and monitored then learned from. EtcYou've not participated in any research either. Wierd doesn't agree with you, either so I dont know why you say you "agree"
Quote
I am not experiencing negative mental states such as paranoia or extreme aversion or any fear of others.Well that's... debatable
Quote
But I do hear that mental cloudyness is a side effect of the innoculationNo it"s not.
Post by: martinuzz on December 26, 2021, 05:52:40 am
Well no I'm not worried because the conspiracy is that we've all already had it but because testing my body for antibodies is illegal now I can't.
Yep it was like a super flu and sure if I was an old frail man and shit like that id be down for a bit or dead but I'm a healthy man I ate magic mushrooms, fejoas and smoke cannabis through it. Came out with a lung infection and my asthma re immerging due to fault of my own.
Sure you cite the studies now but ten years ago there was shit all data favoured by mainstream science and you'd not even give this god given mushroom a look sideways.
Go on @wierd pull out a sentence about research you didn't participate in about a drug you've never taken in post-psychedelic, gram range. It should be self prescription like all medicine and yes I agree dosage should be Consistently high and monitored then learned from. Etc
I am not experiencing negative mental states such as paranoia or extreme aversion or any fear of others.
That's a side effect of projects mockingbird and we've gone over this, I hope this clears the confusion. But I do hear that mental cloudyness is a side effect of the innoculation.
Go seek help. You are batshit insane.
Post by: King Zultan on December 26, 2021, 06:05:46 am
Post by: Starver on December 26, 2021, 06:16:37 am
Well no I'm not worried because the conspiracy is that we've all already had it but because testing my body for antibodies is illegal now I can't.Waitwhat?
(Even if I could follow that chain of so-called-logic, around the missing words you obviously forgot to insert to make it actually make sense, I haven't heard of (consensual) serological testing being made illegal.)
Quote
Yep it was like a super flu and sure if I was an old frail man and shit like that id be down for a bit or dead but I'm a healthy man...who might come in contact with old, frail men, if you think it through.
Quote
I am not experiencing negative mental states such as paranoia or extreme aversion or any fear of others.That's only what They want you to think!
Seriously, though, you're told to "fear Project Mockingbird". What you're doing here is blindly swallowing any old rubbish (physically and mentally) while saying that you won't blindly swallow what the first lot of rubbish is saying is the 'real' rubbish, for its own ends.
Everyone probably has their own rabbithole, but yours is twisted particularly deep.
Post by: Starver on December 26, 2021, 06:35:58 am
What the fuck is this project mockingbird he keeps going on about?Project Mockingbird was a JFK-inspired wiretapping exercise to find out what journalists were saying (to identify government leaks, particularly in regard to intelligence material obtained on the then-USSR). For good or ill, it was basically a listening thing, trying to find out how to stop the enemy nation finding too much out how much the US knew about the enemy nation, by way of open publication.
Operation Mockingbird is the one (according to the kind of people who call out "Fake News!" at anything they personally don't want to believe, ironically) where apparently it was manipulating the media to put out false information for <insert latest theory here> purposes. It was either the CIA influencing the US media over Cold War issues (not unlikely, but already 'a thing' in every country, "free press" or otherwise) or the Illuminati controlling the world's entire media (and social media, to truly impracticable degrees) to further whatever it was the lizards want to do to us.
As pointed out, it's very much chiropteric fecal matter.
Post by: wierd on December 26, 2021, 06:51:30 am
The studies on psilocin and lysergic acid analogs for treatment of depression and cluster headache, respectively, were extremely slow in progressing due to systemic denial by review boards (due to schedule II listings that do nit make sense, same as for weed), and likewise by the perpetual, relentless cockblocks in terms of grant money from government endowments for sciences.
The conspiracy types say it is due to big pharma, but that does not compute; a similarly mind altering compound found in ergot fungus has been on the market for decades. The more likely explanation is that the general public had an incorrect view about the drugs, and kept electing congress critters that fought the research attempts, for decades.
If you check, and dig in my post history, you will find my stance has consistently been "shows promise as a research candidate, needs approval for studies for efficacy and dosing." Over and over again.
I am actually quite particular about what goes in my body, drug wise. I tend to avoid NSAIDS, even though they are quite useful drugs, except when I actually need them, for instance. My kidneys and liver likely thank me for it.
Again, i did in fact look up the ingredients for the Moderna vac. Does not even have a preservative. Explains the extreme storage temps.
I am of the opinion that just because some people abuse a substance, does not remove its genuine uses. Alcohol, for instance, is very useful as a solvent for medications, as a disinfectant, and even as a cleanser. (Really, it cleans coffe stains of coffee cups like magic!)
In the radical pushback against "Duggies!" And "Hippies!", and the reactionism to Moral Panic, many useful drugs have been kept at arms reach, while people suffered. Cluster headache sufferers especially.
Poo is correct though, that I do not agree that high doses of psilocin are beneficial-- the research that HAS managed to get done, despite the cockblocking by govt, indicates very low, sub-psychedelic doses are safe and effective.
The goal is to help medication resistant depression sufferers live happy and fulfilling lives, not to watch the walls melt.
Likewise with LSD and cluster headache. The idea is to help people who suffer nightmare fuel intensity headaches, not to put them in purple haze.
Minimum effective dose.
Very important. That both substances have such dosages, that are well tolerated and dont have hallucinogenic side effects, is just proof they were wrongly listed as schedule II.
Now.
About this virus.
This virus has been associated with multiple organ damage, loss of reproductive function in both men and women, significant and persistent loss of lung function, damage to the central nervous system, and a bunch of others.
YOU DO NOT WANT TO CATCH IT.
The lingering and persistent health effects caused by this pandemic will reverberate in the healthcare profession, and in general public health, for decades after this is over.
Just because some economists are shitting blood over lost opportunity costs, does not mean the virus is a harmless cold.
Its fucking not. It wrecks your body in a lot of alarming ways.
Avoid contracting it. For your sake, and others.
Post by: LordBaal on December 26, 2021, 08:57:33 am
I am far more worried about the virus itself, and its myriad complications to those that contract it, than I am about the vaccines, even the more suspicious ones like sputnik or sinovac.
Why would you comrade? I got covid shots from our glorious regime and everything is fine! Death to capitalism, vodka soda! Hahahah
In all seriusness, you guys know my wife got the sputnik and I got the sinopharm. Both are perfectly fine, no weird side effects and any of that. Even when we were on contact with people that dfenitovely got covid we were super duper.
Shr first tested "positive" but the test was inconclusive, then we both got tested and was negative, on both.
We got the shoots months ago now and have 0 side effects or brainwashing, we still love our kid, like capitalism, free marketa and despise socialism. No clots or lung problems or otherwise.
Post by: hector13 on December 26, 2021, 09:35:10 am
The conspiracy is competent enough to be global in reach, but incompetent enough to put in their name how they intend to take over the world.
I’d like you to do me a favour, Amaranth, and listen to the second series of a podcast called “The Parapod”. It’s comedic in nature, but the theme for that season is conspiracies. If nothing else, you’ll get a laugh out of it.
Post by: wierd on December 26, 2021, 09:41:24 am
I am far more worried about the virus itself, and its myriad complications to those that contract it, than I am about the vaccines, even the more suspicious ones like sputnik or sinovac.
Why would you comrade? I got covid shots from our glorious regime and everything is fine! Death to capitalism, vodka soda! Hahahah
In all seriusness, you guys know my wife got the sputnik and I got the sinopharm. Both are perfectly fine, no weird side effects and any of that. Even when we were on contact with people that dfenitovely got covid we were super duper.
Shr first tested "positive" but the test was inconclusive, then we both got tested and was negative, on both.
We got the shoots months ago now and have 0 side effects or brainwashing, we still love our kid, like capitalism, free marketa and despise socialism. No clots or lung problems or otherwise.
The modified adenovirus vector based ones have a worrisome (but less worrisome than what covid does) statistic of increased risks of DVT and other vascular complication.
https://news.asu.edu/20211202-scientists-may-have-solved-important-part-mystery-ultra-rare-blood-clots-linked-adenovirus
The study focused on Johnson and Johnson, and Pfizer vaccs, which use such a viral vector. The study concluded that it was said vector that was the suspected causal agent.
Sputnik and SinoVac are both modified virus based vaccines, IIRC, and as such, are suspicious for that risk.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-does-the-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-work
Hence 'suspucious', but not "dangerous."
Apparently sinovac is a whole, inactivated virus based vaccine. There could be OTHER types of potential complication from its
use. Dont have any studies available at the moment but I can look later.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/sinovac-covid-19-vaccine.html
You got what you could get. I am happy for that.
The mRNA vaccs are very pure, with essentially no other viral component whatsoever to complicate the immune response. They appear to have a very good efficacy, with very low rates if side effects. They seem to be the premium offer right now.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 26, 2021, 10:59:39 am
The word Nature comes from the Egyptian word Neter which means the Nature energy of God.
Almost forgot: no it doesn´t
Quote
From Middle English nature, natur, from Old French nature, from Latin nātūra. From feminine form of nātūrus, future active participle of nāscor, gnāscor (“be born”).
I mean it´s not the biggest wrong thing in your post. But it´s just as wrong as the rest of your takes.
Post by: scriver on December 26, 2021, 01:19:07 pm
Meanwhile Manufactured comes from Man, and Fact, meaning fucked, together meaning "fucked by Man" meaning things man has done by fucking with nature
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 26, 2021, 01:37:07 pm
Lol no Chairman, Nature comes from Nat, which is short for natural, and Ur, meaning original, together meaning original nature. That is why all natural things are without sideffects and only good for youbut what does ured mean?
Meanwhile Manufactured comes from Man, and Fact, meaning fucked, together meaning "fucked by Man" meaning things man has done by fucking with nature
Post by: LordBaal on December 26, 2021, 01:40:43 pm
Post by: scriver on December 26, 2021, 01:41:30 pm
Post by: Frumple on December 26, 2021, 01:42:10 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 26, 2021, 01:42:56 pm
Post by: Starver on December 26, 2021, 02:29:25 pm
i.e. the whole thing is thoroughly juggled to actually make sense.
Post by: Max™ on December 26, 2021, 05:11:36 pm
(it should really be called fight, flight, or freeze response though)Fight, flight, freeze, faint, or fuck.
Post by: scriver on December 26, 2021, 05:44:15 pm
Post by: feelotraveller on December 26, 2021, 09:43:08 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 26, 2021, 10:06:55 pm
Colour me curious: how many times have you fucked something provoking a fight or flight response?(it should really be called fight, flight, or freeze response though)Fight, flight, freeze, faint, or fuck.
Post by: King Zultan on December 27, 2021, 03:53:29 am
Last words of some dude on safari.
Post by: Starver on December 27, 2021, 06:34:42 am
Post by: TD1 on December 27, 2021, 07:18:18 am
Post by: delphonso on December 27, 2021, 07:41:29 am
Post by: dragdeler on December 27, 2021, 10:20:20 am
Post by: TamerVirus on December 27, 2021, 10:40:58 am
I got banned from the haunted house because when an animatronic skeleton jumped out at me, I tried to kiss it.Sounds like you had a boner
Post by: Iduno on December 27, 2021, 02:44:25 pm
I got banned from the haunted house because when an animatronic skeleton jumped out at me, I tried to kiss it.Sounds like you had a boner
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Rolan7 on December 29, 2021, 10:38:42 pm
Covid is going to be omnipresent, which means capitalism falls apart, and we're all going to die.
Maybe I'm wrong.
I hope I'm wrong, gods, I hope I'm wrong. Literally sobbed tonight.
Post by: wierd on December 29, 2021, 11:18:42 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on December 29, 2021, 11:22:59 pm
I'm not. A lot of the world's ills could be solved by acknowledging that we cannot externalize costs to make them go away. (Eg, ship it off overseas and forget about it.)Yeah good luck Walden. Some of us have to live in the real word.
Edit: That's incredibly unfair seeing as wierd works with elder patients every day, and is on the front lines. I'm sorry.
But wierd's fantasy of walden-style retirement is still bad.
Edit2: dangit Wierd was agreeing with me. In my defense, I am literallly in tears.
Post by: wierd on December 29, 2021, 11:38:44 pm
Sadly, its such an addictive drug, that the more likely scenario is that the priests of Mammon will throw a kegger with the priests of Nergal, and dance merrily with the masque of the red death (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Masque_of_the_Red_Death).
The end consequence of that outcome though, is that too many people will die to hold up the system for long. It is that worst-case outcome that I wish to avoid, but I dont see it happening. I would much rather see the world wise up to the reality that you cannot just ship product and labor around in an endless shell game to externalize costs and internalize profit at everyone's global expense-- and realize that this means you have to deal with your own back yard, and thus not produce the bads to begin with-- and move toward a better future (despite having the covid.)
However, the "Collapse of capitalism" is not something I will cry over. Its a drug, and we are addicts. This is like a type 2 diabetic being forced to go off the twinkies. (and eat some fucking leafy greens for a change)
Post by: heydude6 on December 30, 2021, 01:53:59 am
Edit2: dangit Wierd was agreeing with me. In my defense, I am literallly in tears.
I just finished watching "Don't look up", so I too am in tears.
@Wierd I don't believe Covid is going to cause the collapse of Capitalism though. It may cause the collapse of several economies, and an unfathomable amount of deaths, but capitalism survived the Spanish flu and that was a more dramatic Pandemic. We had the Great Depression soon afterwards and it survived that as well. Unfortunately, there is no precedent for viruses killing the corrupt systems that spawned them. Monarchy survived the Black Death after all.
In my honest opinion, I believe Capitalism will die when the USA as we know it does. The EU has time and time again shown that it is willing to embrace socially progressive policies, while China has been making moves on the international stage to spread its authoritarian influence. The societies of the future will be one of those two flavors. The USA is beyond saving, and it won't be climate change that kills it, but debt. We all know about the famous 17 trillion figure (now 28 trillion), but the sad truth is that this money is actually paying for some rather important stuff. I don't believe the country is ever going to find a way to cut costs, so eventually people are going to stop throwing money at this thing and the infrastructure will literally collapse from neglect.
The only mystery now is whether Canada will follow it to its grave...
Post by: wierd on December 30, 2021, 02:50:00 am
Edit2: dangit Wierd was agreeing with me. In my defense, I am literallly in tears.
I just finished watching "Don't look up", so I too am in tears.
@Wierd I don't believe Covid is going to cause the collapse of Capitalism though. It may cause the collapse of several economies, and an unfathomable amount of deaths, but capitalism survived the Spanish flu and that was a more dramatic Pandemic. We had the Great Depression soon afterwards and it survived that as well. Unfortunately, there is no precedent for viruses killing the corrupt systems that spawned them. Monarchy survived the Black Death after all.
In my honest opinion, I believe Capitalism will die when the USA as we know it does. The EU has time and time again shown that it is willing to embrace socially progressive policies, while China has been making moves on the international stage to spread its authoritarian influence. The societies of the future will be one of those two flavors. The USA is beyond saving, and it won't be climate change that kills it, but debt. We all know about the famous 17 trillion figure (now 28 trillion), but the sad truth is that this money is actually paying for some rather important stuff. I don't believe the country is ever going to find a way to cut costs, so eventually people are going to stop throwing money at this thing and the infrastructure will literally collapse from neglect.
The only mystery now is whether Canada will follow it to its grave...
While the spanish flu caused substantial damage in 2 years, and the flu has been endemic ever since-- it became significantly less harmful to society, to the point it could be effectively ignored.
COVID on the other hand, is going to cause fertility problems **FOREVER**. This is because the receptor it uses to enter cells, is vitally implicated in the proper development of germ-cells in your gonads. (eg, you get covid, it fucks up your baby factory, to some degree or other) which means persistent, long-term changes in baseline fertility-- which is a problem capitalism **CANNOT IGNORE**, because of its multi-generational pyramid-scheme requirements.
Even if covid does not kill as many people, it is going to GLOBALLY depress replacement rate, EVEN (AND ESPECIALLY) in developing countries, which is WHERE THE IMPORTS COME FROM for immigration based replenishment schemes.
There simply wont be enough babies born, anywhere, to sustain the system. :)
Post by: Starver on December 30, 2021, 07:19:45 am
Post by: scriver on December 30, 2021, 07:46:39 am
Post by: wierd on December 30, 2021, 07:50:04 am
---
The monarchy did not, nor did the church per se. More, a natural alteration of otherwise benign soil bacteria combined with religious an political dogmas, to create a perfect storm (that kept repeating until the combination of human evolution -in the form of mass selection for the CCRY Delta 32 mutation--and social collapse --which crippled feudal power-- righted the ship)
I interpreted the quip more as "capitalism has survived the end of the world numerous times", which is a true statement.
You have the volcanism induced trade implosion of the bronze age, you have the black plague in europe, et al.
My counter, is that both times, society had a reflowering from deadheading the power structure. Hopefully, we as a species will learn from this event as the noose tightens, but again, I am a pessimist for the durability of that flowering.
Post by: Starver on December 30, 2021, 09:18:08 am
Ironmaking, however, generally started up in locales with both iron ore and coal (and, for the start of the heavier industry, water-power). This made use of the pre-existing (and now far more advanced) trade-routes, but would probably have not kick-started the same high level of transportation on its own, without the cultural expectations of bronze-making.
(Ok, simplistic, and remarkably absent as a mentioned effect in the various Civilization-series tech trees, but has academic support. Jumping straight to iron would have stymied the ancient world's cultural export system.)
Post by: wierd on December 30, 2021, 09:56:54 am
Thus, "maximal profits" cannot be realized without the globalism.
Again, this leads to perverse situations where the wealthy consumers export literal poison and filth to the poor nations, by force, rather than stop producing the poisons, or enact actual regulations to curb that production to actually manageable levels.
Globalism is a drug, the high is maximum profits, and we as a species are suffering both the long term effects of addiction (income disparity, social maladies of all kinds like uigur forced labor, and actual environmental collapse) and from withdrawal (shipping crisis, et al.)
It would be ironic as fuck, should covid be the thing that saves us from great-filtering ourselves with terminal capitalism.
Post by: dragdeler on December 30, 2021, 10:10:22 am
Here is a hot take: dominator culture has allways been addicted to cheap human ressources.
Post by: Iduno on December 30, 2021, 08:24:46 pm
That would make sense. I can't imagine any other reason they'd lower scientifically-proven quarantine times.
Post by: McTraveller on December 30, 2021, 08:54:16 pm
That would make sense. I can't imagine any other reason they'd lower scientifically-proven quarantine times.
You need a better imagination ;D
Post by: Starver on December 30, 2021, 10:48:29 pm
Also "Omicron is half as likely[1] to send you to hospital...", without noting that if twice as many people catch this 'half as bad' strain, then you are back to where you started. And probably worse as twice as many carriers are spreading it faster into the remaining still-vulnerable population.
BTW, I have a bad cold right now. Doesn't really map to Covid symptoms, and not sure where it came from, but probably my general precautionary isolation has (until now, for whatever reason - I was last in a shop three days ago, masked of course, primarily for the sake of others) left me unexposed to 'training' colds and flus of the usual endemic varieties. More likely than even the devious Ο-variant getting past my fairly recently Boosted status. The worst bit is the running nose, as in 'doing a marathon dressed as a rhino(virus?)' running... Running backwards, at that. Yuck!
No opportunity (or reason) to grab an LFT, so this'll probably remain unconfirmed/un-ruled-out as anything 'of interest' by the point I naturally recover and next have reason to re-enter what remains of society.
[1] I think the current figures are quoted as "between 50 and 70% less likely to make you ill enough to need hospital treatment", but that's not necesarily the same as 'only' 30-50% of people will need hospitalisation (which is bad enough).
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 31, 2021, 01:34:33 pm
It would be interesting to recap the types of vaccination and personal results (not for any medically rigorous meta-study reasons, but 'just for fun').Dose 1 pfizer / I managed to get one of the doses destined for discard way early which was neat. Felt very little difference before and after.
Dose 2 pfizer / felt fine at first. After one day it felt like I had been held underwater for 5 minutes, then force-fed anti-seasickness pills. Struggled immensely to stay awake, and my arm hurt like hell at the administration site. Raised blood pressure +20mmHg. I didn't measure my blood pressure before 1st dose so idk if I had raised for 1st. Blood pressure returned to normal after a week and a half
Dose 3 pfizer / the actual administration of the dose was excruciatingly painful, as they must've dug into bone on top of the wiggling around they did. Whilst I was sure my arm would be bruised to hell after such an ordeal, I actually had more motion and less pain than dose 2. Slight fever but no other symptoms besides raised blood pressure +20mmHg. Blood pressure returned to normal after a week
Post by: Iduno on January 02, 2022, 10:42:35 pm
I've been hearing these same pro-Covid mutterings over here. "I'm alright, everyone I know is alright, the only problem is the costs/staffing/businee-model/whatever and the only way to fix that is to have fewer precautions..."
Yep. https://twitter.com/laughingcat2016/status/1476380793689804803 (https://twitter.com/laughingcat2016/status/1476380793689804803)
Post by: King Zultan on January 03, 2022, 02:03:40 am
Post by: scriver on January 03, 2022, 08:34:54 am
Yesterday I woke up and had a soreish, phlegmed up throat and the dreaded "I have a cold"-feeling in my body. I decided that I should probably go in to town and find a test, but unfortunately tests on Sundays is only available on the foremiddays so the time was already too late. I had to content myself to honeyed tea and wait.
So now it is today and I feel a lot better but not completely over it. But over the day yesterday I started second guessing my reaction as overreacting as I often do.I mean, I see basically no-one except my parents. All people who I might have gotten it from over Christmas-to-Newyears-Week had my parents there for the entire meetings. I don't have to leave the house for another tenday. I could basically just isolate myself away anyway.
So here I sit with my conscience telling me to do my civil duty and go but my worries saying that it would be stupid to go and risk having to stand in line with people who might have covid for a test and then find out that I was not covident but then I get covid because of going to get that test. And I hesitate.
I'm too indecisive to make decisions. Am I just overthinking it?
Post by: hector13 on January 03, 2022, 08:41:25 am
That does mean you can’t do anything for 10 days though.
Post by: Starver on January 03, 2022, 08:55:53 am
My reported probable-merely-sniffles has continued, but as its the first 'decent' seasonal cold-like-thing I've had for the better part of two whole years, it seems like my 'battle colds' skill is rusty, rather than anything else. And since Saturday (New Year's Day), Sunday (well, 'ts a Sunday, innit?) and Monday (Bank Holiday) are even more suppressed for essential services than the days leading up to New Year's Day, I've been ill-inclined (NPI!) to pester anyone.
Everyone I'm likely to come in contact with I have already come in contact with (as I have some I have no immediate plans to further mingle, like my cousin's kid's kid maybe 4-6 years old, who actually sneezed on me on Christmas Eve, thugh the onset took far too long to consider that as the key vector).
Tomorrow, I shall consider investigating my exact status, I think. Or just continue to play semi-hermit. The presumed-cold has subsided from its peak, but I still don't want to be potentially coughing and spluttering[1] in my few possible public appearances and already I've decided to cancel my long-pre-booked dental check-up tomorrow, as soon as there's anyone in reception to actually talk to and work out when it would be reasonable to reschedule to.
[1] Happens mostly when I'm sat still. Keeping moving, seems to offset that significantly.
Post by: nenjin on January 03, 2022, 11:24:57 am
I need takes from the baypool.
Yesterday I woke up and had a soreish, phlegmed up throat and the dreaded "I have a cold"-feeling in my body. I decided that I should probably go in to town and find a test, but unfortunately tests on Sundays is only available on the foremiddays so the time was already too late. I had to content myself to honeyed tea and wait.
So now it is today and I feel a lot better but not completely over it. But over the day yesterday I started second guessing my reaction as overreacting as I often do.I mean, I see basically no-one except my parents. All people who I might have gotten it from over Christmas-to-Newyears-Week had my parents there for the entire meetings. I don't have to leave the house for another tenday. I could basically just isolate myself away anyway.
So here I sit with my conscience telling me to do my civil duty and go but my worries saying that it would be stupid to go and risk having to stand in line with people who might have covid for a test and then find out that I was not covident but then I get covid because of going to get that test. And I hesitate.
I'm too indecisive to make decisions. Am I just overthinking it?
Order some rapid test kits from Amazon?
Post by: scriver on January 03, 2022, 11:53:22 am
If you’re not doing anything for 10 days I wouldn’t bother getting tested.
That does mean you can’t do anything for 10 days though.
I mean it's not like I do anything to begin with, I'm a terrible person ;)
Post by: nenjin on January 03, 2022, 11:54:36 am
Post by: scriver on January 03, 2022, 03:14:49 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 03, 2022, 04:37:39 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 03, 2022, 04:44:44 pm
Well they were out of tests and I hit a roe deer on my way back so I guess I should have stayed at home :(Be careful. Deer are covid carriers.
Post by: scriver on January 03, 2022, 05:04:26 pm
We covered our highway network in wildlife over- and underpasses just about everywhere where there are more than 5 trees nearby, because roe deer are notoriously stupid when it comes to avoiding 4-wheeled danger.
I can't decide whether to respond with the usual hehe-the-Netherlands-is-so-tiny "Unfortunately we have more than four kilometres of highway so it's not possible here" or the more fun fact that nowadays there are more roe deer hits in urban areas than in the rurals over here ;)
Post by: Starver on January 03, 2022, 07:21:25 pm
Spoiler: Memories... (click to show/hide)
Post by: LordBaal on January 03, 2022, 10:35:06 pm
Post by: King Zultan on January 04, 2022, 02:55:44 am
Post by: Ziusudra on January 04, 2022, 04:21:54 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 04, 2022, 05:53:20 am
Evidence for a mouse origin of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8702434/)Thanks for sharing this, that is wild
Post by: martinuzz on January 04, 2022, 06:14:13 am
Post by: Starver on January 04, 2022, 06:38:45 am
Post by: dragdeler on January 04, 2022, 07:25:49 am
haa haaaaa? see what I did there :P?!
Post by: LordBaal on January 04, 2022, 07:33:21 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 04, 2022, 10:31:18 am
I read 2 articles on spanish that stated that it seems omicron gave people better inmmunity than vaccines or other variants. Sadly both without source.Better immunity against *what*? Omicron?
1: omicron has been making the rounds outside South Africa for 6 weeks or so. Not long enough to make any declarations regarding long term immunity. In the past infection inducing immunity hasn´t been more effective than vaccines at preventing recurrent disease
2: second generation vaccines are expected in the next couple of months.
3: the idea is not to catch the disease in the first place.
Post by: scriver on January 04, 2022, 11:29:41 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 04, 2022, 12:15:55 pm
I mean, they're somewhat less reliable than the official health service ones, but their inaccuracy can be counteracted by bulk use.
Take 3 tests, trust the majority result.
If it's positive, still go for the official one, if negative, be at ease.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 04, 2022, 02:10:50 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/anal-swab-china-coronavirus/2021/01/27/cc284f56-6054-11eb-a177-7765f29a9524_story.html
Quote
Take 3 tests, trust the majority result.The other way around would make more sense.
If it's positive, still go for the official one, if negative, be at ease
Post by: Rolan7 on January 04, 2022, 03:14:19 pm
Can't you just go get 2 or 3 self-tests at the supermarket / pharmacy?They've been out in my area (semi-urban North Carolina) for at least a week. Of all the "All the shelves are empty!!" scares I've heard from my parents, repeated without verification from their favorite news sources, *this* one actually happened. It surprised me because my Walgreens had a prominent display of them a few weeks ago, but now nothing more than a rehearsed "We're out of stock".
I mean, they're somewhat less reliable than the official health service ones, but their inaccuracy can be counteracted by bulk use.
Take 3 tests, trust the majority result.
If it's positive, still go for the official one, if negative, be at ease.
I eventually got a spare test from a family friend and it came up negative, but by that time I was feeling almost 100% again so I don't know if I survived Omicron or not. Could have just been a false negative anyway. I was pretty much self-quarantined anyway, from everything being closed or uncomfortably crowded for a sick Rolan, but it's frustrating not to know.
Post by: Starver on January 04, 2022, 05:07:37 pm
(Tragedy of the commons, or a version thereof.)
Post by: scriver on January 05, 2022, 06:30:49 am
Spoiler: Test thee for covid! (click to show/hide)
Honestly here they claim the shortage is because "people take more than they need" but in till they can actually show any kind of basis for that statement I'm assuming they're just covering their arses because they unexpected the demand.
Post by: martinuzz on January 05, 2022, 06:50:53 am
Never underestimate the hoard.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 05, 2022, 06:51:51 am
I'm assuming they're just covering their arses because they unexpected the demand.Ding ding ding jackpot!
They've been saying this for a while here. But the problem is, the whole theory behind the rapid test is that it's rapid. You're supposed to have a few at home so that you can test if you have symptoms without exposing anyone. And keep testing if necessary. How is that supposed to work if people only buy "the necessary amount"? What's the necessary amount?
Post by: wierd on January 05, 2022, 06:59:50 am
Think of the bureaucrats! Exposing the incompetence of government would make the politicians look bad during a crisis! How heartless! /s
Post by: Grim Portent on January 05, 2022, 09:15:39 am
They've been saying this for a while here. But the problem is, the whole theory behind the rapid test is that it's rapid. You're supposed to have a few at home so that you can test if you have symptoms without exposing anyone. And keep testing if necessary. How is that supposed to work if people only buy "the necessary amount"? What's the necessary amount?
I know this is rhetorical, but I think making sure every person has a buffer of five tests available each fortnight would be a decent amount. One test for each week just to be careful, then a few spare tests if you show symptoms. In theory that would cover a good range of time, while only actually using four tests a month if someone is healthy.
Would be a nightmare to arrange I imagine though, even my smallish town would need over 500.000 tests each month not counting the NHS ones, which doesn't sound reasonable to provide.
Post by: Starver on January 05, 2022, 11:47:02 am
The first seems limited by delivery-slots (there were problems with that, not sure about right now), the second by what's actually in-stock (depends on how many 2-packs-per-visit have been made).
You're only supposed to get them if you're asymptomatic[1]. Hence my disinclination, given my now subsiding[2] 'cold'... Maybe when it tails off completely I'll join the rush. Otherwise (or for travel) you're directed to get a PCR.
I think anybody in the UK can get at least advice from 119 (if there's not manning/demands issues!). But go through the appropriate bit of gov.uk or <region.>nhs.uk and I'm sure there'll be a decent facsimile of the latest advice without tying up anything more rhan web-resources in the process.
[1] For most of the UK "twice a week", regardless. Which I've been definitely shirking at, back in the more halcyon days of self-complaisance, so if there's supply issues it aint my fault. Enlgand suggests "before you go to a more hazardous situation" (whether mingling with those more likely to pass it around, or those more susceptible if you do), but no sign that's meant less speculative hoarding by the hordes and other hoggers.
[2] Which I'm sure it is. Complicated by the fact that a PSU blew in one of my machines, this morning and between the lingering remnants of the 'magic blue smoke' it let escape (with such a flash!) and the clouds of dust I disturbed (during the convuluted process of moving, dismantling, remantling and replacing the equipment concerned) there's a bit of an atmosphere in this room that I've not yet properly vented. For such a surprisingly easy repair, it can be somewhat unpleasant to do - given the infrequency of its necessity.
Post by: delphonso on January 05, 2022, 10:34:57 pm
Originally from USNews (https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-12-17/deceptive-videos-used-to-link-athlete-deaths-to-covid-shots), but paywalled.
Post by: wierd on January 06, 2022, 12:01:08 am
Seems legit. Totally. /s
Post by: Starver on January 06, 2022, 02:11:07 am
Post by: King Zultan on January 06, 2022, 02:18:56 am
*shakes fist*
Post by: Rolan7 on January 06, 2022, 02:22:03 am
But it also feeds right into the hands of the "just embrace the virus" dipshits who were clamoring for "herd immunity" from day one. Their insanely deadly plan is somewhat less deadly now. The "Logan's Run" number is a few years later, and thus more palatable.
Except I don't even see these dunderheads capitalizing on that fact, because facts are antithetical to their cults. Using any real data might inspire their followers to use *other* real data, and the game would unravel.
Post by: Egan_BW on January 06, 2022, 02:24:05 am
Post by: Vector on January 06, 2022, 02:32:39 am
My university is online for the first week. I'm almost praying (the "almost" is only because I'm not that Christian) that it will be online for the rest of this quarter. We were actually fine in person last quarter, extremely low positivity rate. This quarter . . . can't we at least be online until everyone has to be boosted, January 31 . . .
I don't want COVID, goddammit.
Got my prescription for a second antidepressant today. *sigh*. Fuck this shit.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 06, 2022, 02:43:19 am
It still feels perverse to *want* a positive test, but I think it makes sense. Now I have to remain, to some extent, cautious. Because at any moment I interact with the outside world I may become a carrier for several days before I have symptoms.
I can't help but think that universal medical care would help fight this sort of thing, instead of making the uninsured pay money to be tested. I guess capitalism doesn't want to survive.
See for some diseases it kinda makes sense! An older family member reminded me of this, because they lived through the "everyone hang out with the chickenpox kid and then you all get sick at the same time, then it's over" period of history.
Coronaviruses don't work like that. They mutate too fast, so giving them a petri dish doesn't "burn them out". It generates strains which adapt to whatever we're doing.
And obviously that includes mutating against vaccines, but a coordinated vaccine push would still wipe out even the most ingenious virus when paired with a period of lockdown.
That would have been nice, instead of making virus-snorting a political stance.
Post by: delphonso on January 06, 2022, 03:00:26 am
An older family member reminded me of this, because they lived through the "everyone hang out with the chickenpox kid and then you all get sick at the same time, then it's over" period of history.
Terrifying little fun fact for you, those parties were an anti-vax thing, if I remember right - it's the same argument they make today: natural immunity is better than synthetic immunity. The chickenpox vaccine for kids came out around 1995 - which is around the time myself and my sister were exposed to chickenpox intentionally. It's a low-risk virus, but does and can kill children who catch it. The risk, as always, is incredibly small if you're vaccinated instead.
Also, you can only get shingles if you have had chickenpox, which is always said the other way around and is blatant misinformation. (Luckily there is a vaccine for both, and the rates of chickenpox and shingles in the US have absolutely plummeted {outside of high-anti-vax pockets}).
You're right about the universal health care - in my family's example above, the vaccine (or any medical care, for that matter) was prohibitively expensive, so my mother just did what she thought was the best within her means. If those vaccines were cheap (and not prohibitively far from our poor neighborhood), we would have gotten them instead of rolling the dice with a live virus.
Post by: Starver on January 06, 2022, 03:43:46 am
But it also feeds right into the hands of the "just embrace the virus" dipshits who were clamoring for "herd immunity" from day one. Their insanely deadly plan is somewhat less deadly now. The "Logan's Run" number is a few years later, and thus more palatable.
Just moments ago read the following letter to a certain paper (online App version) that I read:
Quote
With Omicron causing only a mild cold, now is the time for herd immunity. Stop all testing except people entering hospital and care home staff, get everyone back to work asap. The unvaccinated take the risk themselves, why should they hold the majority to ransom? Keith Stafford, via email
...if I was convinced it'd help, I'd be writing my own rather strong response to that right now. Cockeyed facts and completely askew conclusions! Where's a facepalm emoji, when I need one?
Also...
Spoiler: ...in light of the above post (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on January 06, 2022, 04:09:47 am
Post by: Rolan7 on January 06, 2022, 04:29:03 am
Still, good on you for taking the test. Don't forget that it could have come up positive, and that would have been very useful information.
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 06, 2022, 08:31:56 am
Damn you time traveling vaccines!
*shakes fist*
Turns out what we thought were microchips in the vaccine were actually little terminators, sent back in time to turn you into a Soy Boy... or die trying.
Post by: dragdeler on January 06, 2022, 08:39:46 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 07, 2022, 03:56:46 am
He calls upon the population to help with the arrests. Let's hope no mass murder bloodbath ensues like what happens with drug users.
Post by: nenjin on January 07, 2022, 11:32:50 am
My test came back negative! So now I'm heavily second guessing myself on whether I took the test right or screwed up the nose scrub
FWIW, many people I know here in the US are sick with everything from the cold, the flu to the norovirus. Feds weren't kidding when they said this season would be bad. So you may just have something else. I wouldn't second guess your application of the test, depending on which one. They're pretty straightforward. My own first couple of self-tests I was also like "Shit, did I rotate the swab three times in each direction? INVALID!"
Post by: heydude6 on January 07, 2022, 12:35:04 pm
Philippine president Duterte has said that unvaccinated people that leave their house during these times of lockdown should be arrested.
He calls upon the population to help with the arrests. Let's hope no mass murder bloodbath ensues like what happens with drug users.
Do they actually massacre druggies in the Philippines? That sounds horrible.
Post by: martinuzz on January 07, 2022, 12:52:43 pm
Lots of non-drug users got murdered too over petty conflicts and just labelled 'drug user' by the perps so there would be no investigation.
The ICC in The Hague is investigating Duterte for crimes against humanity because of it.
Post by: Vector on January 07, 2022, 01:23:46 pm
Now to just keep staying home ...
Post by: TD1 on January 07, 2022, 02:38:13 pm
Oh damn
Post by: Sirus on January 07, 2022, 06:03:01 pm
Post by: None on January 07, 2022, 06:07:30 pm
I'm more or less isolating the way I did this time last year. I didn't make it this far along to catch Covid now, even if it is a 'milder' strain with vaccine assistance. That might be my pride speaking more than anything, but at least my likelihood of spreading the virus will be virtually zero.
Post by: delphonso on January 07, 2022, 07:21:24 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 07, 2022, 09:08:46 pm
Thankfully no reaction so far beyond a very, very small fever.
Post by: delphonso on January 07, 2022, 09:44:40 pm
Quite mild symptoms both shots. Just real sleepy after the second one. Best of luck to the kiddo.
Post by: martinuzz on January 08, 2022, 05:47:00 am
Post by: dragdeler on January 08, 2022, 07:16:42 am
Post by: Akura on January 08, 2022, 04:02:06 pm
He does not know where he could have caught it, assuming he did, other than a scenario where he got it from me with me being unknowingly an asymptomatic carrier. I got the vaccine back in July, no booster. I could have sworn he did too.
Gonna get tested tomorrow. I didn't hear what my stepdad said about getting tested, and my mom is refusing to because she's a Karen.
Post by: martinuzz on January 09, 2022, 10:10:40 am
Right now, people who have been in less than 1.5m proximity for more than 15 minutes with someone who tested positive for corona, will need to quarantine for 10 days (after 5 days they can end it early if they test negative).
This might seem a wise idea, but the result is turning out to be that we won't have any doctors, nurses, teachers, or anyone else left being able to go to work, because they all have to quarantine, when a co-worker or child in their class or whatever has tested positive for corona.
Sick leave in healthcare is already at 17%, which is becoming unworkable.
KLM already had to cancel 8 return flights because too many staff are in quarantine.
Post by: Iduno on January 09, 2022, 01:48:18 pm
We need to revise our current quarantine rules.
Right now, people who have been in less than 1.5m proximity for more than 15 minutes with someone who tested positive for corona, will need to quarantine for 10 days (after 5 days they can end it early if they test negative).
This might seem a wise idea, but the result is turning out to be that we won't have any doctors, nurses, teachers, or anyone else left being able to go to work, because they all have to quarantine, when a co-worker or child in their class or whatever has tested positive for corona.
Sick leave in healthcare is already at 17%, which is becoming unworkable.
I would assume that hospital staff are able to receive a test, which allows them to return/continue working?
Post by: martinuzz on January 09, 2022, 03:12:34 pm
Besides that would only adress a small part of the cascading problem.
Post by: wierd on January 09, 2022, 03:28:33 pm
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/the-mass-exodus-of-americas-health-care-workers/620713/
I desperately need a vacation but cannot take one, because we are at skeleton level of staffing.
Post by: Akura on January 09, 2022, 03:56:03 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 09, 2022, 04:57:20 pm
I dunno about the Netherlands, but the US has to also factor in the "quit" rate attrition.Yeah same here. A lot of healthcare workers are burned up and leave the profession. I think even 40% of newly graduated nurses leave the profession within 2 years to find something else to do with their lives.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/the-mass-exodus-of-americas-health-care-workers/620713/
I desperately need a vacation but cannot take one, because we are at skeleton level of staffing.
Post by: Starver on January 09, 2022, 06:43:22 pm
I, for one, hope that our medical professionals don't all burn out from the strain (though I know that many will, and a lot already have), but I also have less sympathy than I rightly feel I ought to when it comes to those who would continue but are being 'forced' out due to insufficiently pro-vax attitudes.
(Let's be straight here, if there's someone thinking they can care for people who doesn't care for themselves and everyone they come in contact with, then there's a problem. It might be insufficiently communicated reasons, failing to actually convince rational people. But I think there'll be a fair few 'woo woo'-believers who it is a pity we needed to plump up the numbers beforehand.)
There'll be a mess, and healthcare systems are famously close to the breaking point at the best of times. Aiming for 95% utilisation at the best of times already causes a "winter flu + icy slips and falls" crisis every year around this time of year because of false economies and self-defeating 'targets', over here. Not that ours is the worst healthcare setup, though it is somewhat degraded by all kinds of less than useful policies, both direct and indirect.
So how we get through to the other side, with currently inspired fresh young things having by then completed their medical training and forming the newest cohort of care... Idunno. It's not my department to sort it out, and while I'm cynical enough to expect spanners to be figuratively thrown in the works by all kinds of people I also have to be hopeful enough that the new-normal will end up being better than it could have been, that we will reach... if note the 'promised land', certainly a decent facsimile of it.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 09, 2022, 07:45:15 pm
Quote
I also have less sympathy than I rightly feel I ought to when it comes to those who would continue but are being 'forced' out due to insufficiently pro-vax attitudes.
?
Quote
So how we get through to the other side, with currently inspired fresh young things having by then completed their medical training and forming the newest cohort of care... Idunno.
One thing I find specially funny is this concept of new medical professionals that are young, fresh and inspired. It both assumes that new doctors are bloody stupid, and it seems to assume there´s a magical factory of doctors hidden in medical schools.
Spoiler alert: you need doctors to train doctors. The less doctors you have (ie mass quitting) the less doctors you can train.
Post by: heydude6 on January 09, 2022, 08:17:56 pm
QuoteI also have less sympathy than I rightly feel I ought to when it comes to those who would continue but are being 'forced' out due to insufficiently pro-vax attitudes.
?
I think I have a vague idea of what Starver may be talking about, but I don't want to put words in his mouth, I want Starver to explain it.
I found Starver's post in general to be rather confusingly written and hard to follow this time.
Post by: Starver on January 09, 2022, 10:21:36 pm
Not sure where I implied, or invoked by any chain of logic, that new doctors are stupid. And there's no magical freeze-dried doctors in special emergency-rations pouches just awaiting rehydration, et voila..., but there are indeed medical schools with a half dozen or so year-cohorts still working their way from entry-level to ready to take on the world. With some pre-pre-med students perhaps still being inspired by the current needs of the world to aim into medicine (or care, or other related services).
I suppose the thing I might have been most circumlocutive about is the 'threat' that if medical staff don't get vaccinated that they don't have a place being medical staff (it is already a thing for care-worker in the wider care-industry, here in the UK, and it is looming to be a thing for doctors/etc).
I suppose I was saying that if you can't convince a trained doctor that it would be good to take precautions then something is wrong. Maybe with the convincsr, but then again maybe it's with the convincee.
Semidirect experience of this is that someone I know had a follow-up check on an injury (acquired and surgically resolved just before the whole lockdown hit, the 'six month'ish follow-up happened maybe just two or three months back) and as part of general conversation with the consultant concerned, in the presence of his assistant, the question of vaccinations got mentioned, possibly by my acquaintence there as a patient, who had either just had or was about to get their booster. Consultant apparently said he was all up-to-date, assistant just shook his head and said "Nope!", apparently getting a dirty look from his boss. I'm no good at readng such subtle clues, but I trust the interpretations gathered by the erstwhile patient, and they highly suspected it to be a "you might think that, hell even I might think that, but we're not telling people that... you should at least publically pretend to trust in the vaccine".
Call me a trusting gullible fool about my attitudes, if you wish, but I like to think I can make at least a half-educated judgement about whether vaccination has a net benefit to not just me but also others around me. When I see the opposing POV in medical professionals, right now I'm more doubtful of their 'professionality' than my own considered judgement.
There may be nuances, and a middle-ground, but no way to resolve things that seem to be diametrically opposed.
(And obviously these are exceptions, not a majority swing of attitude. But they are notable when encountered.)
Post by: Vector on January 09, 2022, 11:12:43 pm
Post by: wierd on January 10, 2022, 12:08:51 am
At least in the US, there kinda are some dessicated "just add residency" instant doctors. The US system, by design, keeps foreign doctors out of the profession. Many in the US were fully qualified, practicing physicians before they moved, and just cant get into a residency program.
https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/non-us-citizen-i-faced-hurdles-applying-us-medical-schools-now-i-ve-made-it-i-want-help-others-me
Killing the AMA monopoly on residency programs would "rehydrate" that artificially dessicated labor pool.
The big crunch is not physicians though. Its bottom rung butt wipers and errand boys, like myself.
The profession requires a dedication to care, a willingness to suffer long hours, and subsistence wages, and now, face permanent health problems from the high risk of illness from tending highly infectious patients with extreme care needs.
The labor pool there is much drier than for doctors.
(I am actually skilled tech labor, doing menial healthcare. If I were willing to work for satan again, i could easily get 3x my current income. I am just unwilling to work for satan.)
This is the great resignation, and the shit wages and poor conditions have depleted the desire to provide care. (More and more, I find my desire to provide care is being eclipsed by the desire to not work for satan. This is negatively impacting the quality of my work, and i dislike that. Other people dont have a strong demotivator when it comes to changing professions, when that change will improve most metrics of life quality. I will likely stick it out through covid, but most wont. )
Throw into that, the toxic jingoism of modern politics?
You got the healthcare crisis in 2021/2022.
Post by: martinuzz on January 10, 2022, 09:45:27 am
For a full 20 months, all schools were closed because of corona lockdown. Finally, the children can get education again....
Except.... Most schools no longer exist. Because schools did not get any tuition for 20 months, directors needed to find another way to gain funds. A lot of schools have been rented out as private housing (or turned into a workplace). 20 months was just too long.
EDIT: makes for an difficult ethical conundrum.. Is it ethically justifiable to evict people from their homes so they can be turned back into schools?
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 10, 2022, 09:49:29 am
Meanwhile in Uganda, the longest school lockdown in the world has come to an end.This world is already postapocalyptic but instead of a collapse we just get a grind
For a full 20 months, all schools were closed because of corona lockdown. Finally, the children can get education again....
Except.... Most schools no longer exist. Because schools did not get any tuition for 20 months, directors needed to find another way to gain funds. A lot of schools have been rented out as private housing (or turned into a workplace). 20 months was just too long.
EDIT: makes for an difficult ethical conundrum.. Is it ethically justifiable to evict people from their homes so they can be turned back into schools?
Post by: martinuzz on January 10, 2022, 09:51:17 am
Post by: dragdeler on January 10, 2022, 09:56:11 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 10, 2022, 10:04:24 am
Over here, the percentage of those tested positive raised by nearly 100%, but the ICU admission rates keep dropping. 'Normal' hospitalization (no need for respiration and medically induced coma) however does rise along with the number of infected.
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 10, 2022, 06:54:38 pm
Meanwhile in Uganda, the longest school lockdown in the world has come to an end.
For a full 20 months, all schools were closed because of corona lockdown. Finally, the children can get education again....
Except.... Most schools no longer exist. Because schools did not get any tuition for 20 months, directors needed to find another way to gain funds. A lot of schools have been rented out as private housing (or turned into a workplace). 20 months was just too long.
EDIT: makes for an difficult ethical conundrum.. Is it ethically justifiable to evict people from their homes so they can be turned back into schools?
I guess it's more another piece of evidence that forcing schools to fight for their own funding and survival just leads to twisted incentives and poor outcomes. Ideally, institutions which serve the public weal, like schools, should be nationalized and unconditionally supported, and use another metric (not the profit motive) to make sure that a high standard of education is being delivered to the students. I know it's a lot to expect of Uganda, but I'd hope that they'd have had more common sense than the brainless American way of doing things!
Post by: TD1 on January 10, 2022, 07:08:18 pm
American schools are private? I can't credit even murrica being that cray cray
Post by: nenjin on January 10, 2022, 07:54:32 pm
Wait what
American schools are private? I can't credit even murrica being that cray cray
Good, because, the vast majority of American schools are public and provided for by tax payer dollars. Private schools account for 25% of all schools, enrolling 10% of American K-12 students.
Private schools here are either of the religious and/or high society variety. Parents sending their kids to private schools continue to fight for a share of public funds to do so and have succeeded in some cases.
Post by: Iduno on January 10, 2022, 09:02:23 pm
Post by: Vector on January 10, 2022, 09:53:05 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on January 10, 2022, 10:04:03 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 10, 2022, 10:21:27 pm
Also, Vector’s link to someone making fun of quack medicine also suggested Prozac (fluoxetine) as a treatment for Covid? I want to know how increasing serotonin treats any kind of infection, never mind specifically this, but I also really don’t. It’s not really something you want to mess with if you don’t have to.
Post by: wierd on January 10, 2022, 11:37:35 pm
:)
Post by: Rolan7 on January 11, 2022, 02:06:48 am
It's amazing. The underlying idea is that they should be reimbursed for whatever portion of their taxes that doesn't directly benefit them. Wouldn't it be wild if *any* other public service worked that way?Wait what
American schools are private? I can't credit even murrica being that cray cray
Good, because, the vast majority of American schools are public and provided for by tax payer dollars. Private schools account for 25% of all schools, enrolling 10% of American K-12 students.
Private schools here are either of the religious and/or high society variety. Parents sending their kids to private schools continue to fight for a share of public funds to do so and have succeeded in some cases.
"I don't drive, why should I pay for roads?" - oh wait this is real, roads are maintained by gas tax.
"Why am I paying for that school in the bad part of town?" - oops this is real too, schools are funded by local property tax, ensuring that low-income neighborhoods receive the worst education possible. For obvious reasons.
"My house isn't on fire, what am I paying the fire department for?" - We occasionally see this tried as well, people going back to the Roman model of paying the fire-fighting organization for their protection.
We're living in failed states, but America especially.
Post by: wierd on January 11, 2022, 02:13:57 am
Legal tax sheltering? Totally this.
Socialized healthcare being systemically denied? Totally this.
Absurd tuition, being downplayed by boomers? Totally this.
Unaffordable rents, being downplayed by old homeowners? Totally this.
Etc.
Our society says that having this view is OK. That is the fundamental problem.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 11, 2022, 02:23:22 am
I don't want it, but it follows better logic than people demanding vouchers for using private or home schooling.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 11, 2022, 03:31:43 am
For that matter, I'm childless- where's the education voucher for the 2.5 children I'm not putting through public school?That's a nice way of sneaking in universal basic income
I don't want it, but it follows better logic than people demanding vouchers for using private or home schooling.
Post by: TD1 on January 11, 2022, 04:25:05 am
Wonder how fast pop. levels would fall?
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 11, 2022, 06:40:23 am
Well... until you have children, at least...Not at all because migration levels > birth decline
Wonder how fast pop. levels would fall?
Post by: Frumple on January 11, 2022, 07:34:47 am
Well... until you have children, at least...Once you got kids, you get a pile of other sorts of assistance. That's the sneaky part of sneaking in a UBI.
Wonder how fast pop. levels would fall?
Though I'd actually be fairly confident guessing a childless voucher would increase, rather than decrease, population. The less financial pressure you put on folks, generally the more likely they're going to start fucking... and gods know the state of US sex ed and reproductive healthcare entails that means kids.
Post by: Starver on January 11, 2022, 11:00:17 am
"I don't drive, why should I pay for roads?" - oh wait this is real, roads are maintained by gas tax.Knowing that UK fuel duties[1] are not at all hypothecated (nor 'Road Tax', which is actually a vehicle excise duty, and goes in to the general tax pot anyway), I wanted to check this. It looks like the low, low fuel tax in the US isn't dedicated to roads. Some revenue goes out, some other revenue goes in, but the consensus is clear that there's not actually enough in various vehicle-based taxations and charges to support the actual infrastructure expenditure (which it seems is also woefully insufficient). But maybe that's not a problem in every state. My quick browse didn't reveal enough detail.
(Even hypothecated/'ringfenced' taxation is a bit of a fudge. If you try to say "this lot of dollars came in for roads so we'll spend them on roads, that lot came in for schools so we'll spend them on schools" you still end up with 'unpreallocated' dollars being distributed to things both already allocated-to and not allocated-to, but because you've already said this labelled chunk of change goes straight to that chunk of spending you'll not like to add as much spare-change there to make labelled+spare equal what you might have done if given a free hand with utterly uncommited funds (with every other possible commitment vying for at least as much attention as before). It'll depend highly upon special-interest pleading, but that already got them those 'dedicated pot' allocations and other pleading for unguaranteed moneysinks are going to try even harder to take ad much of the rest as they can.)
[1] £0.5795 per litre. Not including VAT ('sales tax') of 20%. (VAT adds about £4bn to the £27bn of basic hydrocarbon duty collected.) If I've worked in the right values in the right way, this equates to US$2.98ish per US Gallon, compared to rough Federal+State fuel taxes apparently being US$0.5264 per USG, prior to any other liabilities I don't know how to account for.
[2] For reference a whole cost of fuel is havering around 142.9 pence per litre over here, which seems to be $7.36/USG. Checking current Hawaiian prices, which I've found to be amongst the highest in the US in past forays, they're currently at $4.316ish.
Post by: wierd on January 11, 2022, 01:06:59 pm
Well... until you have children, at least...Not at all because migration levels > birth decline
Wonder how fast pop. levels would fall?
Not really!
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/773321171206012961/928939650591129610/unknown.png)
Source:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/29/job-market-2021/
Assuming I am reading the lines properly, birthrate went down 400k, while immigration dropped to ~257k. (A decline of over 800k!)
Post by: TD1 on January 11, 2022, 01:09:37 pm
Post by: wierd on January 11, 2022, 01:15:54 pm
Capitalists be shittin blood already. Look at Musk.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/elon-musk-civilization-will-crumble-if-we-dont-have-more-children.html
Post by: Starver on January 11, 2022, 02:27:27 pm
Post by: nenjin on January 11, 2022, 03:27:23 pm
The combination, plus deaths, indicates near negative pop growth. ;)
Capitalists be shittin blood already. Look at Musk.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/elon-musk-civilization-will-crumble-if-we-dont-have-more-children.html
"If you don't start making more wage slaves for my factories, society is doomed. DOOMED I TELL YOU. How will the super rich be able to afford Teslas if working class people don't breed so we can produce them. It'll be the end of civilization as we know it!"
Get that fucking guy off our planet. Or maybe he needs to start turning his billions to actually helping humanity instead of profiting from everyone's labor and fellating himself marching satellites across the sky and shooting rockets into space.
Post by: martinuzz on January 11, 2022, 04:26:53 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 12, 2022, 07:11:41 am
Post by: NJW2000 on January 12, 2022, 07:28:23 am
Naturally, Elon managed to manipulate people's perceptions there so it looks like the humanitarian NGO is the one that's all talk. It's kinda what he's good at, after all.
Post by: martinuzz on January 12, 2022, 07:42:44 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 12, 2022, 09:33:28 am
Post by: nenjin on January 12, 2022, 11:16:19 am
Then Elon must have lost a lot of face over this.
I doubt it. He's basically convinced himself he's Tony Stark, and his businesses are solid. So no, I doubt this meaningfully hurt him. Although I will say that among tech entrepreneurs, he's gone from the golden boy to a shitheel for some.
Post by: Robsoie on January 12, 2022, 11:36:02 am
https://ceres2030.org/shorthand_story/donors-must-double-aid-to-end-hunger-and-spend-it-wisely/
It's unfortunately a lot more than a single 6 billions $ check from Musk to end world hunger and make sure it does not come back by sustaining local farms and avoid more climatic damage on areas.
And that without taking in account how much of that donated money would disappear in local corruptions, local wars, local terrorism and various kind of thefts :/
But still 6 billions $ would certainly helps a very lot of people that suffer from hunger.
Post by: martinuzz on January 12, 2022, 11:45:31 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 12, 2022, 05:34:45 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 13, 2022, 09:25:49 am
Post by: scriver on January 13, 2022, 09:50:36 am
Post by: LordBaal on January 13, 2022, 01:23:25 pm
Post by: King Zultan on January 14, 2022, 02:54:28 am
Also I've always thought that Elon guy sounded like an ass.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 14, 2022, 03:24:45 am
How ironic that SMAC's Nwabudike Morgan would end up being a white south african.
Post by: Starver on January 14, 2022, 04:33:52 am
He was the first African to become the "richest" person in the world.
*cough* (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa)?
Post by: Vector on January 18, 2022, 09:22:59 pm
I'm personally asking people who are unvaccinated and can become vaccinated and are reading this, or have relatives in that condition, either get vaxxed or pick those fights if you haven't yet. I can't fucking take any more isolation. We're at almost two years now.
Post by: LordBaal on January 18, 2022, 10:19:00 pm
Post by: Frumple on January 19, 2022, 12:14:28 am
Can't really expect much in a quick resolution when places like florida are cosplaying syphilitic plague pits :-\
... most of the discussion I've been hearing lately, local wise, has been a sort of "Well, everyone's going to get it at some point" type of deal. Nevermind it means with zero doubt the stateside death toll hits seven digits, considering the rate covid is partially or fully crippling people, I think that may be an even more horrible prospect than, say, another couple/few years of what we've been doing. If that sort of perspective actually pans out, we're talking millions, tens of millions of folks less able to entirely unable to take care of themselves in the US over a relatively short timeframe, and that is just going to be a staggering goddamn clusterfuck in the near future.
Post by: Bralbaard on January 19, 2022, 02:21:45 am
*cough* (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansa_Musa)?
The line for covid testing is over there. ;)
Also, I did not know that.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 19, 2022, 03:22:01 am
And it pains me to think where/who I might be, right now, if we as a species had properly united against this threat. The Watchmen comics were apparently too optimistic. Particularly when sociopathic demagogues are around.
This cult shit took everything from me. It drove a wedge between me and my RL friends, it drove me past the breaking point of acceptable alcoholism, and oh yeah it killed people in my life. Not the virus. The virus is simply a force of nature, and we were pretty well prepared for it in 2016. A cult swooped in, threw out those plans, and destroyed all rational discourse. It sustains the virus.
I don't mean Trump, Trump is just a focal point for this madness. He's trying to take credit for the vaccines and the cult dropped him, because it was never about him. He is as irrelevant as he always was. There is a madness overtaking us in the Western World. People are too well informed to simply be happy off the exploitation of the third world. They seek some sort of justification for the inequality, and they land on globe-spanning... also, racist... conspiracies. Because the simple truth is too painful.
I would love to go back two-three years and steel myself. I'd tell myself to stick with strong people, and not to try to wait this out. This wasn't the sort of issue I could hibernate through. I thought people would unite against something like this. Most people did, but so many people didn't.
I didn't. I thought it would pass.
Post by: martinuzz on January 19, 2022, 04:41:07 am
They hired hairdressers to cut the hair of visitors.
While they are getting a haircut, they will be treated to stand up comedy and theatre.
They are protesting that our government re-opened shops, including contact-professions such as the hairdressers, gyms and prostitutes, but they haven't re-opened theatres and horeca.
When the police comes to shut them down they will say they are hairdressers.
Post by: Akura on January 19, 2022, 05:23:01 am
A hairdresser is generally one-to-one contact, and even normal hairdressing work has some protective measures, such as sterilizing/cleaning their tools. Granted, I can't say as much for gyms and prostitutes(although the latter one I would hope is the case).
Post by: martinuzz on January 19, 2022, 05:41:57 am
And theatres can open safely without packed crowds. Simply only let half or less of the normal people in (with proof of vaccin / negative test) and make them sit at separated chairs. Various test runs last year showed this can be done without being a significant vector of disease.
Stores and gyms, now that's where people are packed. And workplaces.
EDIT: Cultural centre 'de Balie' in Amsterdam went to the chamber of commerce to change their business from 'cultural centre' to 'ideological organisation'. Now they can open to the public just like churches.
The director commented: "Culture is essential to human beings. We thought it was really strange that people can come together and talk about a 2000 year old book, but they can't come together to talk about a book that was published last month".
Post by: Starver on January 19, 2022, 08:23:06 am
(Also, one particular death a tragedy, many deaths merely a statistic, etc.)
Post by: martinuzz on January 19, 2022, 04:25:00 pm
I think our government will have no choice but listen to them.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on January 19, 2022, 04:35:36 pm
Post by: Vector on January 19, 2022, 05:35:38 pm
I am become boosted
Thank you
Post by: Vector on January 19, 2022, 05:37:53 pm
My whole tribe is vaxed already vect, we already did our part.
hi-5s and cute little stickers for those who already succeeded in the challenge. my clan is also vaxxed and boosted. we are pleased and hopeful for the prosperity and continued success of other tribes.
Post by: Starver on January 19, 2022, 05:54:31 pm
31 Mayors of the largest cities in our country just sent a letter to the Volkskrant declaring they no longer support keeping horeca and culture sector closed, and ask our government to put the broader wellbeing of society in the first place, and corona on the second place.Again, the pressures of "absolutely no longer than necessary" are exceeding the adherence to "at least as long as necessary".
I think our government will have no choice but listen to them.
Post by: None on January 21, 2022, 12:34:54 pm
Hospital is trying to file an injunction in court to stop most of their radiological intervention/trauma team from being hired by another hospital. Instead of, y'know, paying their staff properly, managing their hours better, or making their lives bearable in the second year of the pandemic, they're threatening legal action, arguing that the staff are obligated to provide critical care instead of the idea that they're, y'know, employed to provide critical care and are no longer required to do so when they're not longer employed.
Also, it's an at-will employment state, so the staff can literally just stop being employed by their own choice.
Welcome to America, where health care has profit margins that must be met and companies will take legal action to keep their staff burnt out and underpaid. Hooray.
Post by: LordBaal on January 21, 2022, 05:59:39 pm
Post by: heydude6 on January 21, 2022, 06:24:59 pm
Post by: None on January 21, 2022, 06:48:28 pm
This is just the exceptionally shitty outcome for whomever continues to hope that corporations will do the right thing/protect their workers/accommodate the pandemic, or that they'll create the change we need to overcome the pandemic without federal action. Not that I'm asking for authoritarian government control in stating this, but worker rights and protections would go a long way in, I dunno, not killing people, or filling in the boogeyman of 'the worker shortage.'
Post by: LordBaal on January 21, 2022, 07:02:27 pm
Post by: heydude6 on January 21, 2022, 07:25:23 pm
You could of course still argue this point, but then I'll have to say that you're missing it. We don't have a concrete definition of fascism anymore. Nobody who uses it is referring to the exact system of government installed by Benito Mussolini in Italy anymore.
When they say fascism here, they mean having America betray its values of freedom for the sake of ends justify the means bullshit. Enslaving healthcare workers to force them to fight COVID would be a new low for this country, and I'm genuinely wondering if the state is going to use this as an opportunity to cross that line.
It probably will be thrown out, but I'm not as certain as I'd like to be.
Post by: Frumple on January 21, 2022, 09:40:48 pm
It's honestly quite a bit higher than our actual current lows, looking at it -- what the injunction's asking for is a 90 day stay for the filing hospital to have time to replace the staff that's leaving (all of 7 people). Beyond it barely being state intervention to begin with, that's bloody peanuts compared to the regular horseshit our penal and law enforcement systems get to on the regular on a far greater scale, heh.
... it also doesn't actually seem to have much to do with fighting covid, the staff in question seems to handle other parts of care, particularly trauma/stroke care or somethin' along those lines. They're mostly tapped for other sorts of emergency treatment more than covid care specifically. Covid's just being invoked due to how it's stressing everything else healthcare related, basically the (even odds fairly legitimate, our hospitals are fucking stressed right now across the country) excuse they're using for why they hadn't already hired appropriately.
Post by: wierd on January 22, 2022, 12:08:37 am
The courts will laugh it out, of course. This is capitalism championing the 'fascism', and the god-emperor Profit that must not be jeopardized, global pandemic be damned. If the Fed cared, they'd mobilize emergency programs to train new staff or offer them some kind of boons or protections, and even that's too much work when that funding could go instead to building another nuclear submarine- it's not at all likely that this injunction gains any traction.
This is just the exceptionally shitty outcome for whomever continues to hope that corporations will do the right thing/protect their workers/accommodate the pandemic, or that they'll create the change we need to overcome the pandemic without federal action. Not that I'm asking for authoritarian government control in stating this, but worker rights and protections would go a long way in, I dunno, not killing people, or filling in the boogeyman of 'the worker shortage.'
If the Fed cared about the status of healthcare, they would:
1) Partially socialize healthcare, (enough that they become a major force in dictating market pricing for services and products, to end the inflated price bullshit they do with insurance companies to make insurance reps look good. (No, really, that is the real reason the prices are inflated--- so that then the hospital can "Discount" the inflated price, and make the reps look like they saved the insurance company money. For real.)
2) Pass strong legislation to prevent insurance companies from attempting to demand discounts below cost from hospitals in the name of Mammon, and require sane minimum pricing.
3) FUCKING NUKE THE AMA FROM ORBIT, AND OPEN UP RESIDENCY PROGRAMS. (this will drive down inflated physician wages through increasing supply, reduce physician error rates due to being overworked/overstressed, due to insufficient numbers of physicians, and thus reduce the costs of physician malpractice insurance, all in one fell swoop.)
4) Enact strong legislation about healthcare wages and healthcare services for healthcare workers. (Seriously, the people that provide healthcare, often have the worst healthcare experiences, because OVERWORKED, UNDERPAID, and expectations to work when fucked up, broken, sick, or when family are dying, sick, or wounded. Because you know, "Mandate to provide care." (like Wisconsin is pulling.)
BUUUUUUUUTT
The Fed is not at all interested in actually fixing healthcare. Some of their friends are members of the AMA lobby, and physicians making bank, but being overworked and not allowed to sleep because always on call, because systemic shortages of doctors-- IS MARKET EFFICIENCY!
Post by: LordBaal on January 22, 2022, 08:12:48 am
Now, I don't get why yoi hate the Aske Me Anything posts... but yeah, blow them to orbit!
Post by: None on January 22, 2022, 09:29:50 am
In other news, a judge granted the injunction- those staff can't work the new job for 90 days. oopsie poopsie we'll just ignore at-will employment and the lack of noncompete clauses
I realize it's not immediately related to the pandemic, but with healthcare strained as it is, it really, really sucks to see workers take losses like this.
Post by: wierd on January 22, 2022, 09:48:07 am
Yes, honestly with your tax base is fucking amazing you don't have a bigger public health care.
Now, I don't get why yoi hate the Aske Me Anything posts... but yeah, blow them to orbit!
No, AMA as in American Medical Association.
Among other things, they have full control over medical residency programs, which are required by law to practice medicine in the US.
They use this position to artificially restrict the number of practicing physicians.
https://www.forbes.com/2009/08/25/american-medical-association-opinions-columnists-shikha-dalmia.html?sh=561eb7b142f2
In other words, you can TRAIN all the doctors you want; unless you muzzle that rabid dog that is the AMA, none of them will see a single patient.
I suggest nuking the organization from orbit. They have been operating on the Western Bloc "5 year plan!" model for decades, squeezing the medical industry through supply side manipulation. They are NOT to be trusted.
Post by: Iduno on January 22, 2022, 09:54:09 am
Anti-maskers have been afraid of COVID leading the government on a slippery slope towards fascism for quite a while now. I guess this is the turning point where we find out whether they were right or not.
We have plenty of laws and policies written by corporations (what Benito would call "corporatism"), xenophobia, with strong nationalism, and military. We've been at the bottom of that slope for a very long time.
Post by: Starver on January 22, 2022, 10:10:58 am
Post by: heydude6 on January 22, 2022, 11:01:27 am
In other news, a judge granted the injunction- those staff can't work the new job for 90 days. oopsie poopsie we'll just ignore at-will employment and the lack of noncompete clauses
Fuck... I wonder if they’re going to appeal that, but probably not unfortunately. The sad truth was that there was already precedent for this slavery shit in the form of ending strikes by “legislating workers back to work”, which was why I was so worried.
They should be throwing riots over this, but I doubt 7 healthcare workers will piss off the right people. The lack of love for one’s fellow man killed this country a long time ago. How long can it’s undead corpse keep walking?
Post by: McTraveller on January 22, 2022, 12:30:58 pm
Regarding Wisconsin - well if I were those 7 people, I'd just quit anyway, and possibly go work for some other third party for those 90 days. My reading is the injunction just prevents them from working for the new organization - I don't think it forces them to keep working. I would totally be behind a campaign to donate enough to those 7 employees so they can go without working for those 90 days.
If the original organization did try to test the waters to force people to work - hah well either we really have lost the country, or that organization will be SOL.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 22, 2022, 12:48:50 pm
I agree that the AMA is a massive part of the problem with US health care. Increasing the supply of medical professionals is the only way to bring down costs, which is of course why that organization doesn't want to increase the supply.Sure, they can spend a fraction of those three months working some credential-less job instead of helping people. And since it's only seven people and is a big story, random donators can support them.
Regarding Wisconsin - well if I were those 7 people, I'd just quit anyway, and possibly go work for some other third party for those 90 days. My reading is the injunction just prevents them from working for the new organization - I don't think it forces them to keep working. I would totally be behind a campaign to donate enough to those 7 employees so they can go without working for those 90 days.
If the original organization did try to test the waters to force people to work - hah well either we really have lost the country, or that organization will be SOL.
But this establishes a despicable precedent. It's not just about seven people.
I'm looking forward to talking to my mother about this. She's a former nurse, and a few weeks ago she was unloading with me about how awful travel-nursing is. She disliked the travel-nurses for taking more money and providing worse service, in her expert opinion. I think she was right about the service being worse. All I added was: if hospitals are willing and able to pay travel-nurses these excessive salaries, why can't they retain their local, more-effective employees by offering competitive wages?
We left it at that, but I think she considered it a good point and politely raised. (More so than most of the leftist chatter I casually share with her).
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 22, 2022, 02:59:50 pm
I've been recently offered to have medical trainees (exactly what sort of trainees it's still debated). I can't really say no or I'll both impair my capacity to get them latter and create bad blood with other departments (they want me to have jr docs to pad the jr doc oncall rota see). But my department is so underequipped and understaffed that right now I kind of feel that it's shortchanging the trainees.
Best I can hope is that, since we're likely talking Q3 at the earliest, things will be more set up by then.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 22, 2022, 03:38:32 pm
my take is that most healthcare employers are crappy, and you see all sort of underhanded tactics. I'm struggling to think of a workplace in which I was not deceived and TBH all I can think of is in which I was deceived the least. Hospitals poaching each other employees and then slugging it out is not so frequent in Europe because public healthcare is common and one way or the other departments are hesitant about worker poaching. With the current shortages they are becoming less hesitant, though so tbh I'm not surprised that in a free at-will employment setting they're ducking it out with all they have.
TLDR: probably both hospital management teams are cunt. My best wishes to the healthcare personnel involved and I hope that in one place or the other they can find better working conditions. Which is hard to do in the current climate.
Post by: wierd on January 22, 2022, 04:02:55 pm
I agree that the AMA is a massive part of the problem with US health care. Increasing the supply of medical professionals is the only way to bring down costs, which is of course why that organization doesn't want to increase the supply.Sure, they can spend a fraction of those three months working some credential-less job instead of helping people. And since it's only seven people and is a big story, random donators can support them.
Regarding Wisconsin - well if I were those 7 people, I'd just quit anyway, and possibly go work for some other third party for those 90 days. My reading is the injunction just prevents them from working for the new organization - I don't think it forces them to keep working. I would totally be behind a campaign to donate enough to those 7 employees so they can go without working for those 90 days.
If the original organization did try to test the waters to force people to work - hah well either we really have lost the country, or that organization will be SOL.
But this establishes a despicable precedent. It's not just about seven people.
I'm looking forward to talking to my mother about this. She's a former nurse, and a few weeks ago she was unloading with me about how awful travel-nursing is. She disliked the travel-nurses for taking more money and providing worse service, in her expert opinion. I think she was right about the service being worse. All I added was: if hospitals are willing and able to pay travel-nurses these excessive salaries, why can't they retain their local, more-effective employees by offering competitive wages?
We left it at that, but I think she considered it a good point and politely raised. (More so than most of the leftist chatter I casually share with her).
That would make total sense, if you did not approach it from a "risk based pricing" approach.
Instead, consider how a staff nurse is a recurring cost center, and a travel-nurse is a short-term term of engagement, intended to fill an immediate, operation ending hole, to prevent catastrophic shutdown.
The staff nurse should get paid the barest minimum required to retain thier services, to keep that recurring cost center low.
The travel nurse, on the other hand, needs to be highly paid to offset the "interest" costs incurred by travel expenses, competition for the travelling nurse's time from rival hospitals (during a labor shortage), and be balanced against the financial risks of failure to meet mandatory staffing, and having to shut down and not see/lose patients.
Post by: Rolan7 on January 22, 2022, 04:56:13 pm
My mother thinks in terms of helping people. Our state does not.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 22, 2022, 07:27:50 pm
Post by: LordBaal on January 22, 2022, 10:39:09 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 22, 2022, 10:42:34 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 22, 2022, 10:51:01 pm
Wow that is stupid. Why i earth, beyond idiocy one would any country desire to have less doctors.
The goal of the AMA (which is a professional association, not a government agency) tries to prevent a glut of medical professionals is to keep medical wages high. Their stated concern is that they're trying to prevent the "wow, this lucrative profession is short-staffed! I (and 30,000 shiny new college students just like me) should major in that to take advantage" followed by "You can't get a job in this profession because there's a hundred applicants to every position, and it pays like crap because everybody's easy to replace" cycle you see in other jobs. In practice, the AMA is made up of wealthy doctors who have a vested interest in keeping doctor pay high and are stable enough to avoid the downsides.
Post by: wierd on January 23, 2022, 01:13:07 am
I assume a travel nurse is kind of like the agency locums in ireland and the uk?
Dont have experience to confirm;
A travelling nurse, is a nurse that specializes in meeting short term staffing crunches, or in rotation queues with essential but remote areas of operation where attracting skilled full time staff is not possible, but where staff is vitally necessary.
Consider a rural hospital, out on some pacific island, that is a part of the public healthcare system. That hospital is the only hospital on the island, and services that island, and likely any surrounding islands. Patients would die in transport if ghey were attempted to be taken anywhere else, so the hospital *must* function. The island lacks the educational infrastructure needed to produce local staff nurses.
Where do the nurses needed to run the hospital come from?
Travel nurses!
(This happens in some remote parts of the country, like Alaska, where the hospitals are private, but owned by a large hospital network, and sustaining the hospital is a legal requirement for some other cherry arrangement in a more profitable locality, and thus similarly, *must function*, despite availability of local staffing.
Travel nurses also fill emergency staffing needs, such as "major earthquake destroys half of los angeles!" Or "hurricane levels entire state of georgia!", where a logistically unfeasible number of workers is needed, needed right now, and no, it cant wait.
Sadly, they are also often used as "instant scabs" during hospital pay/treatment disputes with local staff.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 23, 2022, 02:52:26 am
In Ireland as a consultant you can make 110€ an hour doing that
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 23, 2022, 03:22:42 am
Like I said, its not *just* that. There are other factors at play, like ensuring training standards are being met. I'm not naive enough to think keeping control of the job market isnt a factor, but its not the only factor.Wow that is stupid. Why i earth, beyond idiocy one would any country desire to have less doctors.
The goal of the AMA (which is a professional association, not a government agency) tries to prevent a glut of medical professionals is to keep medical wages high. Their stated concern is that they're trying to prevent the "wow, this lucrative profession is short-staffed! I (and 30,000 shiny new college students just like me) should major in that to take advantage" followed by "You can't get a job in this profession because there's a hundred applicants to every position, and it pays like crap because everybody's easy to replace" cycle you see in other jobs. In practice, the AMA is made up of wealthy doctors who have a vested interest in keeping doctor pay high and are stable enough to avoid the downsides.
I've seen a variety of training models. Restricting training posts is *not* the only bad outcome you can see. The UK and Ireland keep huge numbers of junior doctors (usually foreign) running around, but choke access to training schemes to attending//consultant positions (true in both but particularily bad in Ireland). This generates a lot of cheap labor, but eventually trainees leave to places where they do have a future. This in turn leaves you in a situation where the only ones staying are either unable to leave for whatever reason (ie family), so terrible that noone else will take them, or draconian in dictating their working terms (you thought travelling nurses were bad, how about the same but with junior docs?)
Spain took the reverse approach for decades to try to produce an excess of attendings to keep labor cheap, the current outcome is that HCW beat it en masse because literally any country in Europe can offer better working conditions. The solutions being floated are not great either... rather than improving working conditions the knee-jerk reaction has been to try to bully hcw further, and loosen the vetting process to verify that foreign trainees have actually undergone equivalent training (which can obviously be very bad... sometimes there are wild differences in roles and training between different places). Option B that is being considered is mimicking what is done in UK and Ireland and create a sub-class of perma-junior docs (they obviously dont call it that. Officially it's a way of getting "experience"). I have no reason to think it will work better than in the British isles. It might result in some improvement in working conditions for existing attendings in Spain by virtue of having more minions running around doing shit but it does break the Spanish training model and generates trouble downstream.
A THIRD idea being floated is to keep things as they are but issue a mandate forcing egressed trainees to mandatorily work for the goverment wherever the goverment wants after training. This goes against EU labor laws, ignores the fact that residents WORK during training which more than makes up for what they receive, and also ignores the fact that even now the chief reason people leave is that they are *not* offered jobs, or are offered part time jobs with the expectation they will work the full time hours without pay. I dont think they *can* do it with EU law as it is now (they might if they and others manage to drive a change) but if they did I predict Spanish training schemes would become impopular, fast.
Post by: LordBaal on January 23, 2022, 07:56:49 am
And then the carrer at uny itself was pretty brutal. Also only a handful of faculties are avaiable, in like 4 or 5 states I think. While the tuition fees were like cents of dollars per month/semester, you still had to buy lots of books and other things, most people studying it had to either work or have people supporting them.
5 years of brutal studies, one year of "intership" or residency im a public hospital, and one year of rural work, all of that unavoidable to graduate. Did I mention all the faculties were on the premises of the largest public hospitals on each of their respective cities? From very early students had access to very close experience and then hand on experience latter. This also more or less guaranteed a fresh supply of rookies free of pay each year on those hospitals.
All these were considered more than enough filters. Its evident, but have to say it was the higher drop out rate carreer of all.
As a plus, working with very few supplies/medicines and support. From very early these docs learned to be very recursive and develop nerves of steel because they knew they can lose any patient even over a simple inffection.
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 23, 2022, 09:35:58 am
From very early these docs learned to be very recursive and develop nerves of steel because they knew they can lose any patient even over a simple inffection.From very early these docs learned to be very recursive and develop nerves of steel because they knew they had to learn to be very recursive and develop nerves of steel. ;)
Post by: martinuzz on January 24, 2022, 03:49:17 am
They are tired, understaffed, and sick of having to run to and end private parties at people's homes.
"You cannot stop the youth from needing social contact and entertainment. Please re-open the pubs, They did a great job before, with keeping risk to a minimum, contrary to all the illegal parties we see now".
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2022, 10:54:40 am
Arguments will no doubt be made that these are just those not turning up (teachers and pupils) because they are currently ordered to stay away, so this problem will go away if they just stop the self-/household-isolation thing and let them attend regardlesz, but when you add the removal of the mask mandate (which was always under-applied/late-to-implement in schools before, during and between various prior waves, anyway) will not really help anything but the virus.
(Acknowledging that it always has problems for the likes of deaf pupils, especially, but there are ways to deal with that and not throw the baby out with the bathwater.)
Post by: Iduno on January 25, 2022, 01:47:41 pm
Meanwhile (because our PM is over the barrel and needs to appease Covid-deniersjust-a-sniffle-rs) our plannwdvtrajectory out of restrictions is being shown to be probably premature (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-60126783).
Arguments will no doubt be made that these are just those not turning up (teachers and pupils) because they are currently ordered to stay away, so this problem will go away if they just stop the self-/household-isolation thing and let them attend regardlesz, but when you add the removal of the mask mandate (which was always under-applied/late-to-implement in schools before, during and between various prior waves, anyway) will not really help anything but the virus.
(Acknowledging that it always has problems for the likes of deaf pupils, especially, but there are ways to deal with that and not throw the baby out with the bathwater.)
Where here in the US, enough teachers have died, gotten too sick to work, or are tired of seeing what happens to coworkers, so they can't keep schools open. The solution is to bring in the military as back-up teachers, because learning from home doesn't grease the wheels of capitalism enough.
Post by: Vector on January 25, 2022, 06:33:14 pm
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2022, 07:53:18 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on January 25, 2022, 10:30:27 pm
The situation in the teaching community is an outright disaster. We keep talking about the collapse of the medical system, but we're seeing something like the collapse of the public education system as well.
doubled with repubs fucking with education in general, at least in the US. The new VA governor for example is already pushing "anti-CRT" law as we speak.
Post by: hector13 on January 25, 2022, 11:14:12 pm
Like, any schools?
Post by: delphonso on January 25, 2022, 11:25:09 pm
Is CRT even taught in schools?
Like, any schools?
Yes, insofar as the core ideas are taught. No, insofar as there is no CRT-cirriculum that is taught.
Growing up, I was taught that races were culturally invented and there is no inherent difference between people of any color. That was over 20 years ago, and this is part of the definition of CRT, and is wild to be in opposition of.
We didn't discuss institutional racism in school, but at that point that we would, I was in an evangelical school that tried to convince me there was institutional bigotry against Christains, so...who knows what they learned in public.
CRT is factual and evidence-based, so in many ways it is already taught...
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2022, 11:27:23 pm
Is CRT even taught in schools?
Like, any schools?
Surely it's been superceded by TFT these days. Or even OLED!
Post by: MrRoboto75 on January 25, 2022, 11:27:42 pm
Is CRT even taught in schools?
Like, any schools?
In the absolute sense, no. Repubs don't really mean CRT as it is academically though, they really mean anything teaching history of systemic racism in the US.
An example of anti-CRT being the revisionist idea of the civil war being fought primarily over state's rights, instead of perpetuating slavery.
Post by: scriver on January 26, 2022, 04:33:29 am
Post by: wierd on January 26, 2022, 04:54:29 am
The court date for mom's wrongful death case (which has been languishing for 2 years already due to covid) has been postponed, AGAIN, from Feb this year, to June this year.
Because Covid.
Post by: martinuzz on January 27, 2022, 07:10:45 am
Not sure what to think about this. Sending the sane to get help on how to deal with the insane. It seems a bit upside-down.
Post by: heydude6 on January 27, 2022, 11:53:35 am
Post by: Vector on January 28, 2022, 12:51:42 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 07, 2022, 09:59:47 am
Illegal arms possession, open racism, traffic congestion, stores of basic life needs that can no longer be supplied, citizens of Ottowa that are discriminated against and threatened with violence.. The mayor saw no other choice than to declare state of emergency and forbid the protest, describing the situation as 'the most serious calamity that our city has ever seen'.
A lot of Ottowa citizens, especially women, are afraid to leave their houses, because the trucker protest treats them racist and misogynistic.
People get death threats for being black, woman, transgender, or wearing a facemask from people carrying swastika flags.
The state of emergency allows the police to do more. They can now arrest people who supply the truckers with food, water, fuel and toilet paper.
The police say that their work is made extra difficult because of the enormous amount of funding the truckers recieve. Just in the past few days, the Canadian truckers recieved 6.7 million dollars in funding via GoFundMe, mostly donated from the US by Trump supporters and other right wing extremist groups.
America might face legal consequences for funding terrorism.
GoFundMe has decided a few days ago to no longer pay out the money that was donated because of the violent nature of the protest.
Another funding site, GiveSendGo, then made it publicly known that they will pay out.
GiveSendGo is a fundementalist christian organisation that is know for raising funds for nazi groups like the Proud Boys.
Note that most Canadian truckers do not support the protests. It is a very small, but rowdy and loud minority that is protesting.
Of all international Canadian truckers, 90% have been vaccinated, and about the same percentage does not agree with the protests.
77% of the Canadian population supports their government's corona policies.
Post by: dragdeler on February 07, 2022, 01:14:05 pm
Post by: heydude6 on February 07, 2022, 01:40:27 pm
Thankfully, a guy in Ameripol linked a reddit thread that has a collection of interesting info, though it's not as current as it could be.
So America includes North America includes Canada, right?
Y'all heard about the 'freedom convoy' of ten thousand (read: couple hundred maybe) trucks taking to the road to protest mandates (masks? vaccine? that the USA won't let them in?)? Heckling people wearing masks, pissing on the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, stealing from food banks, maybe flying a nazi flag? Y'know, those guys?
They've got their own comms channel, complete with insane drivel, singing, racism, and trolling by strangers. A helpful Twitter user (https://twitter.com/Noellenarwhal) has been doing a periodic blow-by-blow and it's kind of hilarious.
The updates, not the nasty shit the protest has done. Here's a reddit post aggregating everything that's happened. (https://old.reddit.com/r/onguardforthee/comments/sh7qok/a_summary_of_events_at_the_protest_so_far/)
There's stuff of varying quality here. From twitter Hearsay, to photo evidence. There is an obvious lean and bias in there, but since its mostly just a compilation of outsider info, you can ignore the bias and let the evidence speak for itself.
Long story short, it's bad. It's possible protests outside of Ottawa are a little more civilized, but they are not part of this conversation for the time being.
My two favourites from the reddit thread are the global news article (https://globalnews.ca/news/8543281/covid-trucker-convoy-organizers-hate/) talking about a few people who are high up in the chain of command in this protest and their history of racist stuff, as well as a twitter post by an ice-cream shop (https://twitter.com/mooshuicecream/status/1489736932758282240?s=21) announcing that they had to close down since their masked workers were being assaulted. A for-profit business wouldn't close like that unless they really had to.
There is a lot more stuff than that, but these are the things that should shake off any preconceived notions of the guys waving around the confederate flags being plants meant to make the truckers look bad. This whole protest is swamped with American influence and as a proud Canadian I will not stand for it.
Ultimately, I think this is going to turn into another GamerGate situation. Ie. we get a group of deplorables (racists) who hide behind a seemingly "sympathetic" issue (protest Vax mandates), which happens to lure in a bunch "normal" people (freedom-loving antivaxers) who don't understand why everyone is giving them all the hate and lash out as a result. The end result of this is only going to be more radicalization. I mean anti-vaxxers do suck, but you gotta admit that they don't deserve as much hate as the members of an actual hate group (unless they overlap of course).
Post by: martinuzz on February 07, 2022, 01:58:05 pm
Here's the article about Ottowa:
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/truckersprotest-in-canada-loopt-uit-de-hand-burgemeester-van-ottawa-roept-noodtoestand-uit~bfdd8b2a/
The only thing that was not from that article in my previous post was 'America might face legal consequences for funding terrorism', that was my own sarcasm.
Post by: heydude6 on February 07, 2022, 02:10:49 pm
The only thing that was not from that article in my previous post was 'America might face legal consequences for funding terrorism', that was my own sarcasm.
Damn, I thought you were being serious there, but I just got the joke. Ha Ha Ha! I feel like an idiot for not getting it sooner.
Post by: martinuzz on February 07, 2022, 02:12:47 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 07, 2022, 02:19:59 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2022, 06:04:23 am
Most of these are the result of vaccination, well over 90% of our population has been at least double vaccinated, 50% of our population also got their 3d booster shot.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 08, 2022, 07:48:48 am
Post by: Starver on February 08, 2022, 08:24:37 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 08, 2022, 11:12:18 am
Post by: heydude6 on February 08, 2022, 11:33:08 am
Although we shouldn’t forget to mention the police. The police cracked down on that HARD!
Frankly this is the most effective protest I’ve seen in years. Shame it’s funded by nutjobs.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 08, 2022, 04:25:03 pm
I know you’re joking, but from what I’ve heard from other people, Occupy failed because the people protesting the system didn’t understand it very well. There were no well-defined actionable goals, just a general sense of “Fuck Wall Street”.That's a universally applicable kind of criticism to levy at any heterogenous grass roots movement, but not all are unsuccessful. From the French Revolution to the Arab Spring, even in this honk honk honk mad max convoy, you'll see loads of groups within groups, and even individuals within those groups will have their own motivations and agendas.
Although we shouldn’t forget to mention the police. The police cracked down on that HARD!That's what I mean - there's something ingenious about the fact that logistically removing that many trucks isn't happening without trucker compliance, the truckers themselves are needed to transport goods & ignoring the truckers isn't an option because honk honk honk. In these days where civic engagement in politics has been reduced to voting for the same two assholes again and again or getting a police baton to the face, it's refreshing to see a bunch of truck drivers paralyse basically everything on a spur of madness. It'd be cool if they used this opportunity to address everything else fucked up in the world instead of just doing nurgle plague worship
Frankly this is the most effective protest I’ve seen in years. Shame it’s funded by nutjobs.
Tactically they're like heavier versions of French tractor roadblocks
Post by: martinuzz on February 08, 2022, 07:26:19 pm
I never ever got those before.
A collective interest group is sueing the Dutch state now, for a data leak. The data of 7 million dutch citizens (out of 17 million total) have been stolen, and offered for sale online to criminals on the dark web.
The data were stolen from the GGD, our national health service that is responisble for Covid testing and vaccination.
The stolen data include social security numbers, personal adresses, mobile telephone numbers, home telephone numbers, vaccination status and relevant health records.
7 employees of the GGD have been arrested for leaking the information, 2 have been convicted. The leak is still not closed and ongoing.
ICAM, the collective interest group is claiming 3.2 billion euros, that is 500 euros for everyone involved, or 1500 euros for people of whom it can be demonstrated that their records have indeed been sold online.
So far 80000 people have applied with ICAM to join in the claim.
I wasn't kidding a few days ago when I said that you'd be surprised how many people refuse to have their medical data shared with the national medical database. Crap like this is why.
Those calls I'm getting started a week or somesuch after my first vaccination :P
I think I'm going to apply too, I could really use a 500-1500 euros.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/datalek-ggd-gaat-de-staat-mogelijk-miljarden-kosten-aan-schadevergoeding-voor-gedupeerde-burgers~b3c03939/
Post by: wierd on February 09, 2022, 03:02:58 am
Does not matter who you are, or what you do. If a public terminal can access it, a public terminal *WILL* access it.
No, I dont care how much money it saves on infrastructure to use the internet.
No, I dont care how much the sales rep told you that the data protocol is secure.
No, I dont care how inconvenient it is for your clients to have to use an actually secure channel.
No, I dont care how inconvenient it is to screen people for access to the secure channel.
If you use the public internet as your transport, YOU WILL GET YOUR DATA LEAKED. (this is PRECISELY why the world banking infrastructure does NOT use the internet to facilitate inter-bank communications, and why it does all the things listed above CORRECTLY.)
Thank you. Now go about your business.
Post by: scriver on February 09, 2022, 04:49:17 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 05:28:19 am
Keep wearing your mask regardless of whatever the goverment says regarding mask mandates.
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 05:57:27 am
And this is why warehousing databases in easy to access [aka, OVER THE FUCKING INTERNET] locations is a bad idea.
Does not matter who you are, or what you do. If a public terminal can access it, a public terminal *WILL* access it.
This one was worse. Not even was everything linked to the internet, the software used by the totally unscreened 1000s of corona crisis workers had a convenient and easy to use built in EXPORT function for all the highly sensitive data. They weren't even hacked from the outside, criminals applied for jobs and exported the data of 7 million people.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 09, 2022, 06:15:50 am
I wasn't kidding a few days ago when I said that you'd be surprised how many people refuse to have their medical data shared with the national medical database. Crap like this is why.I always assumed it was the electoral roll that did me in. Always getting robot calls claiming I'm being done in for tax fraud or won the lottery
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 06:33:33 am
Those prank calls are the least of evils that can be done with the data stolen.
They have all the nescessary information to buy property on my name, or hire a warehouse in the harbor to smuggle cocaine in, and I would never know (until in the former case, the tax service comes knocking, or in the latter case, a SWAT team lifts me off my bed in the middle of the night).
The only thing that could really be done to stop that threat is for our government to destroy all census data and social security numbers and give everyone a new identity
Post by: wierd on February 09, 2022, 08:40:19 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 08:57:17 am
A few years ago, a new law was passed for coffeeshops (they dutch type, that sells weed and hasj). They were no longer allowed to sell weed to foreigners, 'to reduce nuisances caused by drug tourism'.
As for the practival application, my city municipality distributed scanners and software to make full colour scans of our passports, so the coffeeshops could check the residency of their customers.
Don't ask me why they couldn't just have the store clerks check someone's passport without scanning it. It makes no sense.
I considered this whole thing strange, and me, having been local politician for one of our major political parties for years and knowing my way around the municipalities' telephone numbers and civil servants a bit, made some calls to inquire whether there were any measures in place for supervision and control of what happened to the full colour scans of the passports...
There were none.
This made me send a letter to our dutch version of the FBI (AIVD), to inform them that our city (and probably many more) gave full colour scans of passports away of tens of thousands of people (per city) for free to the underground criminal circuit, with a cherry on top.
With the know-how, you don't want to know what people of malicious intent can do with a full colour passport scan. You really don't.
A few weeks after my letter to the AIVD, the new law was put on ice and no longer enforced. Coffeeshops no longer scan passports.
It does not comfort me that now, not only is my full colour passport out in the criminal open, now they have all sorts of additional sensitive personal information to go with it as well. My identity (and that of many others) is so compromised right now, I can't even begin to describe it.
Let's say that movie, 'the Net' is scratching the surface of it.
Post by: heydude6 on February 09, 2022, 09:36:04 am
Let's say that movie, 'the Net' is scratching the surface of it.
God, that’s an obscure reference if I’ve ever seen one. That movie was the epitome of pre-2000s cheese.
Post by: Starver on February 09, 2022, 11:02:25 am
Yet "But first, can I see your passport", "Sure, here it is!", "Aha! By being actually able to prove that you are foreign, I am now obliged to refuse to serve you. Have a nice day!" is a much stranger filtering mechanism that probably won't hack it.
(I don't even carry a photo-Id, habitually. I'll even go out without a bank-card, at times, even though that's probably better two-factor authentication - without going beyond everyday equipment - than my driving license. And only marginally less definitive of residency.)
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 11:09:25 am
I went to a protest against it when that law was passed some 10 years ago, mumbling angry 'Ausweisspflicht' sounds (that's what the Germans called it when they forced it upon us during WW2 occupation).
A law like that was still in the 'unthinkable' and 'political suicide' universe when I grew up, but yeah, 9/11 changed things worldwide.
Post by: nenjin on February 09, 2022, 11:24:02 am
You're supposed to have your US ID on you at all times, although I think the laws regarding it vary state to state. And when you're abroad, most Americans understand the need to have your passport on you at all times.
But it would be weird for us to carry our passports around with us here in the US.
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 11:31:11 am
For national identification purposes, they are the same, and both valid.
Most people have ID cards because they think they are cheaper. They are, as a one time purchase, but the ID card loses validity after 5 years, the passport 10 years, making it the cheaper option long term haha.
EDIT: The passport is nothing more than the ID card bound into booklet form so that it has room for visum stamps.
Post by: Starver on February 09, 2022, 12:15:08 pm
[1] The mainland British, that is, not sure about NI in general, or the special cases of the much smaller and possibly more "internationalised" CI and IoM populations.
[2] I can roll off the alphanumeric serial#, but the first bit is obvious, the second bit happens to make a nice pattern and the third element (that could be much more random) happens to look meaningful, to me, so much so that I thought it actually meant something when I first received it in the form of a Provisional (i.e. learner's) License, oh so many years ago. It's hard to forget it, not that I expect to be asked for it (license or 'number'). But then my National Insurance number (SSN, for 'Merkins, not sure about you other Yurrupeans) is nowhere near as memorable (nor a photocard) or often actually used for anything, but I still inexicably recall it easily on demand. I thought I knew my youth-hostel membership card number, too, but after a decade or two of non-use (but it being a Lifetime Membership, subscribed to back in the '70s, still valid) they might have changed something in their database, making the one on my card invalid though they could still look me up on their now computerised system.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 01:02:24 pm
Quote
A few years ago, a new law was passed for coffeeshops (they dutch type, that sells weed and hasj). They were no longer allowed to sell weed to foreigners, 'to reduce nuisances caused by drug tourism'I dont think that was in effect in 2019
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 01:13:04 pm
EDIT: somewhere between 6 and 8 years. It was not before 2014, because that is when I got my current passport, which made the full colour scan an issue for me until 2024, then I get a new passport.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 01:16:00 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 01:16:55 pm
Post by: Vector on February 09, 2022, 03:24:14 pm
I know I'm British, which puts me in a particularly non-European mindset even if I would have prefered to still being European more than I am now, but the idea of requiring a passport to be served at a local (to me) establishment is... Strange. The people who would be more likely to habitually carry their passports around here would be the foreigners who needed them to get here.
It's totally standard in Russia, you bring your passport for service at the post office ... and there are like "Russian" "non-Russian" lines at most tourist attractions.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 05:14:10 pm
They went to the best pharmacy then.I'll give you a clue
(https://www.swordsofnorthshire.com/image/catalog/articles/takeda%20shingen/takeda%20shingen%20tiger%20of%20kai.jpg)
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 05:21:47 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 05:47:38 pm
Post by: Starver on February 09, 2022, 05:56:37 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 05:59:28 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 06:04:23 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 06:06:11 pm
I'm very done with safety theater.
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 06:12:04 pm
That sounds rather disproportional don't you think?
It's not like you are being asked to walk around with a dildo in your ass and 220 volt titty clamps. It's just a thin piece of cloth that is in no way bothersome or encumbering.
Post by: Bralbaard on February 09, 2022, 06:15:06 pm
[2] I can roll off the alphanumeric serial#, but the first bit is obvious, the second bit happens to make a nice pattern and the third element (that could be much more random) happens to look meaningful, to me, so much so that I thought it actually meant something when I first received it in the form of a Provisional (i.e. learner's) License, oh so many years ago. It's hard to forget it, not that I expect to be asked for it (license or 'number'). But then my National Insurance number (SSN, for 'Merkins, not sure about you other Yurrupeans) is nowhere near as memorable (nor a photocard) or often actually used for anything, but I still inexicably recall it easily on demand. I thought I knew my youth-hostel membership card number, too, but after a decade or two of non-use (but it being a Lifetime Membership, subscribed to back in the '70s, still valid) they might have changed something in their database, making the one on my card invalid though they could still look me up on their now computerised system.
Random number stuff is weird sometimes. When we have elections you get an invitation for it with some sort of identification number. The voting paper itself does not have an ID on it, but this invitation does. It's not used anywhere else that I'm aware of, but when I moved into the place I now live and elections arrived I was surprised to find out that my number for the election was 0000000000001 (not sure about the number of zeroes there, but it was a lot) It stayed that way for several elections. A while ago it changed to a random number.
I actually liked being citizen 1, and it got some surprised ooh's and ah's from the people that check the invitation and ID at the voting boot.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 06:16:33 pm
So because you can't stand wearing a piece of cloth or paper in front of your mouth and nose for a few minutes when you are in public places, other people should just isolate themselves at home?
That sounds rather disproportional don't you think?
It's not like you are being asked to walk around with a dildo in your ass and 220 volt titty clamps. It's just a thin piece of cloth that is in no way bothersome or encumbering.
The mask mandates are lifting. Obviously the health officials don't believe it's as big a deal as you do. I'm going to follow the science. :)
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2022, 06:19:21 pm
Science still tells us we are not through this pandemic yet, and science still tells us facemasks contribute to reducing the spread significantly.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 06:26:37 pm
If the health officials say it's good enough, then it's good enough for me.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 06:32:55 pm
Because I don't like them, because I don't need them, because they are safety theater with no benefits beyond letting people pretend they're being safe. I'm vaccinated and boosted, if I get sick it'll be a minor case at worst, and I'm willing to accept that minor risk for the benefit of not wearing these cloying little pieces of trash anymore.This is all obviously untrue but I'm not going to bother reposting what has been posted a hundred times here, and clearly the will of the majority is to unlock achievements by repeated covid infection so whats the point. You do you. I'll continue wearing my ffp3. 👍🏻👍🏻
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 06:34:05 pm
You do you. I'll continue wearing my ffp3. 👍🏻👍🏻
Exactly! I do me, you do you. If you feel the need to continue wearing a mask, go for it. But I'm not gonna, when I no longer am required to.
Post by: Starver on February 09, 2022, 07:46:18 pm
If the health officials say it's good enough, then it's good enough for me....though you sound like someone who didn't think that it was good enough for you when the health officials were saying otherwise.
What you have is not a pure health assessment, but what happens when the health assessment is no longer strong enough to overcome the populist opinion. I'll bet ya that the true opinion of the advisors, behind meeting room doors, is that it would be generally better to continue, but they're under pressure to compromise this opinion because less informed opinions want 'normality'.
Which means the recovery curve will stay plateaued (or even blip upwards a bit) compared to how it could have been if everyone could give it another month or so of (frankly) trivial caution.
So little inconvenience, for most people, but it seems to be a hill they want to die on (hopefully not literally, but it still might be for some) just for bravado purposes.
Like I said, I won't tell you what to do, but I think you're overly eager to fricassee your facemask.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 08:05:27 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 08:09:21 pm
It's really not worth your time to argue with denialists. Specially with western goverments going into pandemic denial as well, despite wave #6 being deadlier than #5. Look after yourself and your family because that's the best we can do anywhere outside East AsiaIf the health officials say it's good enough, then it's good enough for me....though you sound like someone who didn't think that it was good enough for you when the health officials were saying otherwise.
What you have is not a pure health assessment, but what happens when the health assessment is no longer strong enough to overcome the populist opinion. I'll bet ya that the true opinion of the advisors, behind meeting room doors, is that it would be generally better to continue, but they're under pressure to compromise this opinion because less informed opinions want 'normality'.
Which means the recovery curve will stay plateaued (or even blip upwards a bit) compared to how it could have been if everyone could give it another month or so of (frankly) trivial caution.
So little inconvenience, for most people, but it seems to be a hill they want to die on (hopefully not literally, but it still might be for some) just for bravado purposes.
Like I said, I won't tell you what to do, but I think you're overly eager to fricassee your facemask.
Post by: Robot Parade Leader on February 09, 2022, 08:10:16 pm
From what I can tell, it's all out of context. Yes, the little surgical masks were never really good enough, because we really needed everyone in N95 masks for a few months. Still better than nothing but not good enough. Somehow getting people good masks wasn't going to happen, even though we could've reorganized things and America is allegedly the best economic production country. Couldn't get the good masks though, because whoever somehow plans what gets made (a person, or "the market," or whatever) wasn't going to really do that. There shouldn't have been any shortage of good masks. You'd think "supply and demand" or whatever would've led to production of actual filter masks or something. I thought we were supposed to be able to make/buy things. Nope.
I know one person I trust who had a plan to fix this at the beginning but she said they'd never do it because of politics. It would've been a pretty ok plan. Making tons of actually good masks to boost the economy and fight covid and then mass producing the vaccine when we came up with it.... Taking cruise ships they were scrapping (because that industry was hit hard) and making them into hospital ships. It was surprisingly detailed. But she was right too many people wouldn't play ball. You can't tell them anything or some of them will get mad enough to hurt you. Or in the case of a bunch of truck drivers, protest in Canada's capital by blocking everything off with semi trucks. It's just kind of a shit show. I know enough to know I'm not brilliant. I don't know what else to call it.
I feel like I'm the only one still wearing a mask around me. I have N95 ones. Vaxxed. Boosted, until we need another of those. All I can say is I'm really grateful all this pushback wasn't around when they were vaccinating against polio and stuff. There's no point arguing with people about asymptomatic spread or how a "mild" case just means you don't go to the hospital but someone else might die from it still. I have no idea anymore. "Common sense" was supposed to be better than this. Nothing makes sense.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 08:13:39 pm
It's really not worth your time to argue with denialists. Specially with western goverments going into pandemic denial as well, despite wave #6 being deadlier than #5. Look after yourself and your family because that's the best we can do anywhere outside East AsiaIf the health officials say it's good enough, then it's good enough for me....though you sound like someone who didn't think that it was good enough for you when the health officials were saying otherwise.
What you have is not a pure health assessment, but what happens when the health assessment is no longer strong enough to overcome the populist opinion. I'll bet ya that the true opinion of the advisors, behind meeting room doors, is that it would be generally better to continue, but they're under pressure to compromise this opinion because less informed opinions want 'normality'.
Which means the recovery curve will stay plateaued (or even blip upwards a bit) compared to how it could have been if everyone could give it another month or so of (frankly) trivial caution.
So little inconvenience, for most people, but it seems to be a hill they want to die on (hopefully not literally, but it still might be for some) just for bravado purposes.
Like I said, I won't tell you what to do, but I think you're overly eager to fricassee your facemask.
Not a denialist, a realist - a realist that this is an endemic now, and that vaccines are widely available, and that there's no point in maintaining the safety theater anymore.
Post by: Robot Parade Leader on February 09, 2022, 08:22:01 pm
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/forecasting/forecasting-us.html
"predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next 4 weeks, with 5,800 to 21,700 new deaths likely reported in the week ending March 5, 2022. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 942,000 to 978,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date."
https://covidusa.net/
Feb 9, 2022: 77,139,262 Cases. 910,205 Deaths. 48,584,797
I don't know; just stay as safe as you can everyone.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 08:45:38 pm
Post by: heydude6 on February 09, 2022, 08:45:46 pm
The only people I know who really understand this whole covid mess basically say we botched it. The doctors, nurses, lawyers, healthcare administrators, and lab techs dealing with this are all just kinda burnt out. We could've gotten rid of this like we did with smallpox and polio. We're kinda screwed now. It's not going anywhere and will probably mutate to different variants too, again.
From what I can tell, it's all out of context. Yes, the little surgical masks were never really good enough, because we really needed everyone in N95 masks for a few months. Still better than nothing but not good enough. Somehow getting people good masks wasn't going to happen, even though we could've reorganized things and America is allegedly the best economic production country. Couldn't get the good masks though, because whoever somehow plans what gets made (a person, or "the market," or whatever) wasn't going to really do that. There shouldn't have been any shortage of good masks. You'd think "supply and demand" or whatever would've led to production of actual filter masks or something. I thought we were supposed to be able to make/buy things. Nope.
I know one person I trust who had a plan to fix this at the beginning but she said they'd never do it because of politics. It would've been a pretty ok plan. Making tons of actually good masks to boost the economy and fight covid and then mass producing the vaccine when we came up with it.... Taking cruise ships they were scrapping (because that industry was hit hard) and making them into hospital ships. It was surprisingly detailed. But she was right too many people wouldn't play ball. You can't tell them anything or some of them will get mad enough to hurt you. Or in the case of a bunch of truck drivers, protest in Canada's capital by blocking everything off with semi trucks. It's just kind of a shit show. I know enough to know I'm not brilliant. I don't know what else to call it.
I feel like I'm the only one still wearing a mask around me. I have N95 ones. Vaxxed. Boosted, until we need another of those. All I can say is I'm really grateful all this pushback wasn't around when they were vaccinating against polio and stuff. There's no point arguing with people about asymptomatic spread or how a "mild" case just means you don't go to the hospital but someone else might die from it still. I have no idea anymore. "Common sense" was supposed to be better than this. Nothing makes sense.
Yup, we've lost. And the worst part is that you can't even blame it on big corporations* deliberately spreading misinformation like you could with climate change. Sure, there were many little corporations who profiteered off of the crisis: clickbaity news outlets, cloth-mask manufacturers, and snake-oil salesmen, but these were not organized attempts to bring down society. Most of the fault unfortunately goes to human stupidity, and I'm not just talking about the anti-vaxxers (take note politicians).
There is no end-game anymore. If we gave them another year of lockdowns, we still wouldn't be any closer to re-opening society than we are now. That's why people are giving up.
Thanks for sharing your piece Robot Parade, it was about time someone said it.
*The vaccine manufacturers made some profit I guess, but the only thing I really blame them for is hoarding their IP and refusing to work with other pharma companies to maximize vaccine output. Refusing to give third-world countries their shots is what lead to things like delta.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 09, 2022, 08:53:56 pm
By the way, I dont believe it's too late by any means. But I don't believe there's any political will to sort it out. The West's plan is to plod through until between repeated reinfections and boosters (and don't believe for a minute that the 3rd shot was the final one*) the population has enough, not herd immunity per se, but enough background immunity to avoid the worst of it. With far more people dead or with sequelae than if we had done the sane thing. But thats what people want apparently.
* my prediction is that the omicron specific shots will start to be rolled out probably around easter. If goverments get particularily stingy it might be delayed to September or so. But barring fuckups probably no later.
Post by: hector13 on February 09, 2022, 10:53:18 pm
I mean, hey, the politicians rescinding restrictions have given them a choice back haven’t they? Stay at home or risk their life going about their daily business, like earning money or buying groceries or seeing a doctor.
It never ceases to surprise the levels of selfishness the human race can descend to, that the loss of a dollar is somehow more important than the loss of a life.
Some days I wish I was a psychopath.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 09, 2022, 11:23:32 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on February 10, 2022, 12:24:46 am
Post by: wierd on February 10, 2022, 01:00:09 am
I guess we better lock up everyone at risk of Covid because some people cannot handle even the most minor of inconveniences.
I mean, hey, the politicians rescinding restrictions have given them a choice back haven’t they? Stay at home or risk their life going about their daily business, like earning money or buying groceries or seeing a doctor.
It never ceases to surprise the levels of selfishness the human race can descend to, that the loss of a dollar is somehow more important than the loss of a life.
Some days I wish I was a psychopath.
That's the rub:
The social machinery is predicated on putting human-grease into the cogs, or it grinds to a halt. Doing that during a pandemic with a deadly disease quickly renders the population unfit for later work, but slowing or halting the rate of greasing the wheels makes the "Runs at "Maximum Efficiency!" (aka, no margin for change!) machinery of society break down, and shit gets real in different ways.
This is a realworld critique of running at Just-In-Time timetables, "Maximally Efficient Markets", and other fantasies concocted by economists to extract maximum value with minimum investment, and then public policy predicated on the continuance of that practice.
Some degree of inefficiency is good. Situations like this global pandemic are illustrative of that.
Poo is correct, this is about lack of governmental will to govern during a time of crisis, and actually make hard decisions, and instead "Just allowing it to come apart, because governance is hard(tm)"
Proper governance would have kept failsafe margins for governmental and economic shutdowns, would have not tried to derail attempts to keep the economy on life support, would be open to, and ready for, changes in societal dynamics that change the status quo (like the great resignation is causing)-- etc.
It does that through retaining inefficiency of this type-- Regulation that prevents that kind of "Just in time" bullshit, and which prioritizes long term survival and fitness of the nation and public health, over short term quarterlies and anxious investors that dont give a fuck about tomorrow, excepting for when they get paid.
China is about the only fucking country with that mindset right now, and YES-- They fucking DID barricade people into their houses to MAKE them quarantine, because YES, people were NOT voluntarily isolating when they needed to.
I concur that Covid is now endemic--- It is that way, because world govts were too anxious to pull the hard shutdowns needed to halt its global spread early on, because "Economic consequences!!" (because no fault tolerance in the "Efficient!!" system)
There isn't a good solution for covid now. Just one where more than 2/3 of the population suffers systemic illnesses related to post-covid syndrome. (and yes, that *IS* a thing.)
Hope those quarterly reports were fucking worth it.
Hope those parties were worth it.
Hope the gaslighting was worth it.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 01:35:07 am
Post by: Rolan7 on February 10, 2022, 02:02:22 am
Yes, it was inevitable that it was going to be endemic as soon as the response for it was botched. And now it's time to just accept it and move on with our lives. Can't turn back the clock, can't put the genie back in the bottle, can't put the horse back in the paddock after it's bolted, etc. etc.You make a solid point.
However, we have "eliminated" various other viruses through worldwide efforts. Flu-style diseases have proved resistant, but Covid wasn't the flu.
Once again, I resent everyone who fought against the initial vaccine rollout. They were lied to. I hate, deeply hate, the people who capitalized on the virus to boost themselves. Those people ruined everything out of greed.
And sure, I still blame capitalist greed at the end of the day. But some people knew exactly what they were doing. There's survival, and then there's greed.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 02:16:35 am
Yes, it was inevitable that it was going to be endemic as soon as the response for it was botched. And now it's time to just accept it and move on with our lives. Can't turn back the clock, can't put the genie back in the bottle, can't put the horse back in the paddock after it's bolted, etc. etc.You make a solid point.
However, we have "eliminated" various other viruses through worldwide efforts. Flu-style diseases have proved resistant, but Covid wasn't the flu.
You're right, it wasn't the flu - it was worse. It was more transmissible, had a longer asymptomatic incubation period, and seems to be quite readily mutable. As soon as it escaped the initial lockdowns and got into the wider world, endemic status became inevitable, sooner or later. It's following the same course as the 1918 flu pandemic - initial deadly strain followed by "mellowing out" and fading into the background with the other endemic viruses we as a species live with.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 10, 2022, 03:33:53 am
Post by: wierd on February 10, 2022, 03:44:29 am
It will have to be constantly managed.
The big complaint being made, is that having to "constantly manage" the infection rate of the virus in society (to prevent it from rendering the population in-viable economically, due to bad health and persistent illness) is an onerous economic burden.
I believe I addressed that, in my rather sharp rebuke of our society's dependence upon models and practices that only make sense if there is no such systemic problem to constantly manage. (EG, systems based on global supply infrastructures, systems based on just-in-time delivery of materials or products, systems based on employer's market based hiring, et al.)
In order to prevent a complete implosion of the economy through a public health meltdown, we desperately need to get away from the "high performance drug" addiction we have to those policies and practices, and embrace the reality that constant management is necessary to avoid disaster.
That means accepting that mask use is now necessary, and it wont go away.
That means accepting that big wild parties are not socially responsible, and not hosting them.
That means accepting that covid is a dangerous illness that will fuck up whole populations with persistent and incurable conditions post-infection, for the remainder of the infected person's lifetimes.
Those are all things the general public DOES NOT WANT TO ACCEPT AT ALL, and which government considers TOXIC TO EVEN CONSIDER.
Which is why society is on the trajectory to burning dumpster fire that it is on.
The ones that do not want to accept it, want to think that "It will go away" or "Will become non-issue".
Current science says that is not what will happen. The mechanisms by which it causes the systemic illness are directly tied to the infection pathway it uses. It would have to mutate very profoundly to use a totally different coreceptor to stop causing post-covid syndrome. It is also endemic. You will never eradicate it now.
Combined, the only option is "Constant Management"
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 04:13:43 am
People are going to be social. We're going to have parties. We're going to meet each other and interact and live our lives. And we're not going to wear masks doing it.
Post by: wierd on February 10, 2022, 04:16:23 am
Post by: Vector on February 10, 2022, 04:17:58 am
@Pwnzerfaust, do you really have no friends who are at higher risk for bad COVID? Obese friends? Friends with diabetes? Anyone in your life who is older like an aunt, uncle, or grandparent? Or little kids in your life who are going to have a bad time as experienced older teachers keep quitting the classroom due to inadequate workplace protections?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 10, 2022, 04:44:49 am
*just like people are not willing to do what it takes I suspect they wont be willing to live alongside mass dying and crippledness. Eventually people will demand something to be done again.. and I suspect we'll get "flatten the curve" half measures again at that point.
PD: I believe the whole "you can't catch it outdoors" meme was something to be taken with a grain of salt at best (less likely is not 0) and I read recently that an aerosol scientist in the RIKEN institute ran some simulations that suggested the odds are far higher with omicron. Be careful out there.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 04:50:35 am
OK, next round of lockdown-triggered PTSD confirmed. I better start getting ready again because apparently we're done doing the shit that makes lockdowns less likely 9_9
@Pwnzerfaust, do you really have no friends who are at higher risk for bad COVID? Obese friends? Friends with diabetes? Anyone in your life who is older like an aunt, uncle, or grandparent? Or little kids in your life who are going to have a bad time as experienced older teachers keep quitting the classroom due to inadequate workplace protections?
I have no atrisk friends, and my grandparents are vaccinated and as unconcerned as I am. They, like I, understand that the risks involved to those of us who are vaccinated and boosted are negligible and no longer worth treating with such paranoia. Living in the bay area and working in tech, all my friends are reasonably fit and healthy and almost all have the same take on this as me.
Post by: wierd on February 10, 2022, 04:54:32 am
OK, next round of lockdown-triggered PTSD confirmed. I better start getting ready again because apparently we're done doing the shit that makes lockdowns less likely 9_9
@Pwnzerfaust, do you really have no friends who are at higher risk for bad COVID? Obese friends? Friends with diabetes? Anyone in your life who is older like an aunt, uncle, or grandparent? Or little kids in your life who are going to have a bad time as experienced older teachers keep quitting the classroom due to inadequate workplace protections?
I am with Poo on this one.
What will happen, is that:
Government will DO NOTHING. It will tell you to go back to work. It will not acknowledge the debilitating disease that their policies have caused to flourish. They will NOT fix the systemic shortcomings of healthcare-- they will just say that people with covid syndrome have a non-disease, and need to just go back to work. (nevermind that they cant breathe, have multiple organ damage, have alterations in personality and associated personality disorders, and have problems with fine motor control and other maladies. Nevermind all of that. "IT IS NOT REAL, GO BACK TO WORK CITIZEN."
Lockdowns would require shutting down the economy, and NO, WE WILL NOT DO THAT CITIZEN. COVID IS NO BIG DEAL. GO BACK TO WORK. CONSUME. HAVE YOUR PARTIES. EVERYTHING IS FINE.
Except it's not. It will continue to kill people directly. It will continue to fuck people up. It will continue to make people sterile. It will continue to cause rampant miscarriages.
We just wont do a goddamn thing about it, and people intent on trying to mitigate the harm, will be maligned as chicken little.
When the collateral damage of that refusal to acknowledge and do what is necessary to manage the problem reaches a head, and global fertility rates drop below replacement EVERYWHERE, and the economy starts to implode, people will wake up from the happy delusion, and demand action.
But it will be too little, too late by then.
Analogy:
You are a pretty woman with very lovely breasts.
You notice a lump.
Your doctor says you need a double mastectomy, because you have very aggressive breast cancer. You refuse, because "MY TITTIES!" (You DO NOT understand Doctor! My breasts are a part of my identity as a woman, and you CANT just CUT THEM OFF!)
Things seem OK and fine, while you ignore your doctor. Until you get metastatic cancer, and have multiple organ failure, and debilitating pain everywhere, and your life is shit. You think back on your choices, and wonder if maybe you should have followed his advice.
But its too late now. You are terminal stage 4.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 10, 2022, 08:21:29 am
"Compassion and Conscientiousness are prerequisites to civilized life. Individuals should be ready to make personal choices and personal sacrifices for the greater good."
And then
"Death and pain are normal parts of life, and shouldn't be feared, or even resented. Attempts to avert them means encroaching on personal freedoms, which is a greater evil than the thing being averted."
Now, as to what philosophy is pragmatic enough that it will stand the test of time, I suppose history will bear that one out eventually.
Post by: Starver on February 10, 2022, 09:22:20 am
He'll probably be Ok (knock on wood), and whoever inadvertently passed it on to him will probably be Ok. Camilla tested negative, apparently. His mother, in her mid 90s, would be most at risk (based on age) but that would depend on whether he's been meeting her since the possibility of passing on the infection.
It would be nice to be able to be sure one wasn't going to pass on an infection to people who might pass the infection onto others who might be the ones to unfortunately infect the more vulnerable. Just this week, though, Boris Johnson suggested that the mandate for positively-testing individuals to self-isolate (as imperfect as that might be, in itself) might be ended a month earlier than it was due to. Probably as a Bread And Circuses 'reward' to hoi poloi, to make them ignore the political bother he's in for breaking his own limitation of contact rules last year (possibly because, having already had Covid, and vaccinated almost as soon as possible, he "wouldn't have it again"...). Certainly under pressure from the many of his own MPs who never wanted to wear masks in Parliament, etc, who refused to back other elementary precautions even in the midst of prior waves, 'because'.
Ok, so this became a localised political rant, but I was trying to stay away from the specifics of the last page or so of argument. Maybe the initial royal news is similarly uninteresting to you lot, as an international audience, as the fuss in Westminster (where people can provably lie and disseminate without apparent penalty yet it is a procedural offence to directly call that person a liar).
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 10, 2022, 12:01:20 pm
Now, as to what philosophy is pragmatic enough that it will stand the test of time, I suppose history will bear that one out eventually.You forgot option 3: "I have tested positive for a deadly infectious disease. Now I must take business trips. I will trample on many lives, and easily could have stopped this. I regret nothing"
Post by: scriver on February 10, 2022, 12:22:18 pm
Post by: Vector on February 10, 2022, 01:06:52 pm
The parties where they bus in women from other places because of the gender imbalance in tech companies are also not a good look ;)
(OK, I'm done poking the bear guys. Sorry!)
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 01:57:00 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on February 10, 2022, 02:36:49 pm
Private businesses do have a right to throw me out when I keep defecating on their floors, but I wish they'd be more considerate of my own rights. It's like they don't want my money.
It's definitely not that I have a irrational problem with pants and am falling back on "personal liberty" because I can't defend my anti-pants position.
oh wait you already claimed masks don't work haha, keep Franklin's words out of your bare mouth
Post by: Vector on February 10, 2022, 02:38:17 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 02:40:01 pm
Post by: Vector on February 10, 2022, 02:50:46 pm
I upgraded to N95s etc. with the Omicron wave (I was rationing them for an event like this before). At the university, most students use high quality masks.
I would be more than happy to have my $20k of yearly income taxed in order to get everyone at least one good mask per week ;)
Post by: Robot Parade Leader on February 10, 2022, 02:54:20 pm
We did/do need N95s. The cloth masks were better than nothing. Surgeons wear surgical masks for a reason; you don't want them not wearing them during surgery.
Masks work if you're using high-filtering ones like N95s or whatever, but barely anyone does, so unless you're willing to go ahead and pay the bill for buying everyone an ongoing supply of N95s, then no, in effect they do not work. The basic cloth masks and disposable surgical masks have no statistically significant benefit.
Yes, the sensible would very much like everyone to have an ongoing supply of N95s. The corporate overlords don't want to manufacture the amount we all need, despite what could have easily been an overwhelming demand to justify the supply. Even if government guaranteed payment. This is about abuse of power with misinformation even at a $loss
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/white-house-says-it-will-distribute-400-million-free-n95-n1287672
"The Biden administration will make 400 million N95 masks available for free at thousands of locations across the country, a White House official said Wednesday, as health experts stress the importance of high-quality face coverings to protect against the omicron variant of the coronavirus." ~ Is what a lot of people would like to do if people would get out of the way and play ball. They won't.
Post by: hector13 on February 10, 2022, 02:58:31 pm
JoshuaFH's interpretation is pretty insightful and accurate. I hold pretty strongly to the philosophy espoused by Benjamin Franklin when he said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
Unfortunately that quote does not mean what you think it means (https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century).
Quote
WITTES: He was writing about a tax dispute between the Pennsylvania General Assembly and the family of the Penns, the proprietary family of the Pennsylvania colony who ruled it from afar. And the legislature was trying to tax the Penn family lands to pay for frontier defense during the French and Indian War. And the Penn family kept instructing the governor to veto. Franklin felt that this was a great affront to the ability of the legislature to govern. And so he actually meant purchase a little temporary safety very literally. The Penn family was trying to give a lump sum of money in exchange for the General Assembly's acknowledging that it did not have the authority to tax it.
SIEGEL: So far from being a pro-privacy quotation, if anything, it's a pro-taxation and pro-defense spending quotation.
WITTES: It is a quotation that defends the authority of a legislature to govern in the interests of collective security. It means, in context, not quite the opposite of what it's almost always quoted as saying but much closer to the opposite than to the thing that people think it means.
I suspect you’ll be looking for another philosophy to live by, or will you just give up on trying to make your selfishness appear palatable to others?
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 03:09:41 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXWhbUUE4ko
Post by: nenjin on February 10, 2022, 03:20:23 pm
At least your Youtube bait was catchy though.
Post by: Starver on February 10, 2022, 04:01:19 pm
The basic cloth masks and disposable surgical masks have no statistically significant benefit.A factless assertion. Easily shown to be incorrect. Not that you're bothered. Enjoy your life, hope things go well with you.
Spoiler: Ignore this. (click to show/hide)
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 04:12:11 pm
We always appreciate armchair philosophical positions.
At least your Youtube bait was catchy though.
Thanks! Glad to be appreciated!
The basic cloth masks and disposable surgical masks have no statistically significant benefit.A factless assertion. Easily shown to be incorrect. Not that you're bothered. Enjoy your life, hope things go well with you.Spoiler: Ignore this. (click to show/hide)
Thanks for your support. I'm glad you understand that people make choices and trade-offs and life, and are willing to support my choices, as I support yours :)
Post by: heydude6 on February 10, 2022, 04:58:01 pm
Spoiler: Ignore this. (click to show/hide)
Colour me surprised. Though it is CDC, it's provided an overwhelming amount of studies to back up its claims, when I previously heard that none existed. The first one I looked at checked out (study number 3, which states that cloth masks blocked 59% of fine aerosol particles in comparison with the mighty n95's 99%), so that's enough to make my gut interpret it as trustworthy (Boo! How dare you not take the time to verify all 90 citations!).
Thanks for sharing this. It does make me wonder why my surgeon friend so zealously believes masks are useless against Covid though.
Post by: delphonso on February 10, 2022, 07:08:01 pm
Post by: nenjin on February 10, 2022, 07:09:59 pm
Thanks for your support. I'm glad you understand that people make choices and trade-offs and life, and are willing to support my choices, as I support yours :)
If you supported our choices you wouldn't be living in a Libertarian delusion. It's all self-balancing though. Everything comes paid eventually. Just look at the people you agree with and how fast they're leaving the gene pool.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 10, 2022, 07:19:57 pm
Thanks for your support. I'm glad you understand that people make choices and trade-offs and life, and are willing to support my choices, as I support yours :)
If you supported our choices you wouldn't be living in a Libertarian delusion. It's all self-balancing though. Everything comes paid eventually. Just look at the people you agree with and how fast they're leaving the gene pool.
Actually, the people who agree with me are all vaccinated, and so they're not exactly in any rush to leave the gene pool. No Herman Cain awards here :)
Even Fauci agrees we're out of the woods! (https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2022/02/anthony-fauci-says-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-covid-is-ending.html)
Post by: Robot Parade Leader on February 10, 2022, 07:41:52 pm
Thanks for your support. I'm glad you understand that people make choices and trade-offs and life, and are willing to support my choices, as I support yours :)
If you supported our choices you wouldn't be living in a Libertarian delusion. It's all self-balancing though. Everything comes paid eventually. Just look at the people you agree with and how fast they're leaving the gene pool.
Actually, the people who agree with me are all vaccinated, and so they're not exactly in any rush to leave the gene pool. No Herman Cain awards here :)
Even Fauci agrees we're out of the woods! (https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus/2022/02/anthony-fauci-says-full-blown-pandemic-phase-of-covid-is-ending.html)
This is why there's no point in arguing in a "post truth" society. Translation: lies, misinformation, and cherry picking.
Even this less than great, out of context article just does not say, "it's over." But there are people who will only see what they want to see and just will never ever under any circumstances deal with anything else. "Beginning to end" (after 2 years) is still not "it's over." Seems lots of people are engaging in smug wishful thinking and delusion. People want it to be over and they don't care how or at what cost ... to other people (notably not them personally). It's somehow a "trade off" as long as the person making the decision isn't the one forced to pay for it.... The real world is real, and people can't collectively decide a pandemic is over when they want it over, because humans don't have that ability. Otherwise, this would've been over ages ago. Although several will get physically violent with you if you point that out these days.... I'm pretty sure if Facci said "it's over," every single major news outlet would have it front page or heavily featured. He didn't.
We're still losing 1,000s of people to this.... Soon it's gonna hit 1,000,000 in the US. Couple months? There could be another variant (like delta or omicron). We don't know.
Bottom line: A lot of people only care about their individual comfort and nothing else. This is why the West is failing.
I once heard someone say "humans are monsters that can't stand to be called monsters." I didn't get how anyone could say that at the time. I don't know if I'm ready to buy that yet, but I'm starting to get they went through a lot to say that.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 11, 2022, 03:49:32 am
I predict another U turn by western goverments in a few weeks, once the insanity of all this becomes clear and they bring back masks and social distancing.
Post by: Robot Parade Leader on February 11, 2022, 05:42:37 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 11, 2022, 05:46:31 am
The kids really want boosters though, or they cannot go on their final-year school trips to Italy or Germany, kids are not welcome there without booster.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 11, 2022, 11:19:42 am
There could be another variant but you dont need one. Omicron can infect you while vaccinated and it can re-infect you every few weeks. Even disregarding deaths and long covid, no society can run with a huge percentage of the population getting disabled by covid over and over.
I predict another U turn by western goverments in a few weeks, once the insanity of all this becomes clear and they bring back masks and social distancing.
I don't care if I catch Omicron. I'm vaccinated and boosted and the worst I'll get is a minor case. I don't care about omicron any more than I do about the flu.
Post by: dragdeler on February 11, 2022, 11:33:42 am
On one hand, good for you, on the other hand everything is so pointless... We're thaught two things in young years: do the minimum and you will be left alone, and you can do anything you want except getting caught, those are the real lessons, the curriculum is folklore. Result: there exist people more concerned about traffic tickets than they are concerned about flying out the front windshield.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 11, 2022, 11:41:20 am
And you kept the mask as long as the mandate stood?
Of course. I'm not the kind of asshole that makes drama for minimum wage workers forced to enforce the masks.
I'm just going to drop them the very second it's no longer mandated.
Post by: martinuzz on February 11, 2022, 12:20:19 pm
I don't care about my fellow human beings. I'm vaccinated and boosted and the worst I'll get is a few annoying funerals to attend with terrible coffee and even worse cake. I don't care about your wellbeing any more than I do about the cute puppy I just crushed under my boots.
Fixed that for you
Post by: NullForceOmega on February 11, 2022, 01:31:19 pm
I don't care about my fellow human beings. I'm vaccinated and boosted and the worst I'll get is a few annoying funerals to attend with terrible coffee and even worse cake. I don't care about your wellbeing any more than I do about the cute puppy I just crushed under my boots.
Fixed that for you
That looks an awful lot like a personal attack, maybe you should remember the forum guidelines before you do things like this.
Post by: Iduno on February 11, 2022, 01:32:41 pm
Post by: martinuzz on February 11, 2022, 01:43:00 pm
That looks an awful lot like a personal attack, maybe you should remember the forum guidelines before you do things like this.Nah, I'm just holding up a mirror
Looks like I've got COVID again. Luckily the CDC says you can go back to work pretty quickly after getting sick even though you're still contagious, which my employer agrees with. No idea how I keep getting sick.Stay safe and well
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 11, 2022, 01:50:09 pm
I don't care about my fellow human beings. I'm vaccinated and boosted and the worst I'll get is a few annoying funerals to attend with terrible coffee and even worse cake. I don't care about your wellbeing any more than I do about the cute puppy I just crushed under my boots.
Fixed that for you
Damn man, sounds like projection. Get well soon!
Post by: Starver on February 11, 2022, 01:50:56 pm
Looks like I've got COVID again. Luckily the CDC says you can go back to work pretty quickly after getting sick even though you're still contagious, which my employer agrees with. No idea how I keep getting sick.It's (knowingly or unknowingly) letting contagious people mix with others[1] that keeps on making new contagious people.
Anyway... interesting sub-versions of Omicron are doing the rounds (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/stealth-omicron-is-more-infectious-than-omicron-but-vaccines-still-protect).
(It looks like various studies disagree on specifics. c.f. the UK study's "This preliminary analysis suggested that vaccines are more effective against BA.2 than against BA.1." and later the Dk study's "However, this study found that the degree of protection that vaccines conferred was lower against BA.2 than BA.1." Could just be random noise/regression towards the mean.)
[1] I think early ends to lockdowns has done more to do this than overlooking, or being unaware of, various individuals breaking the rules when they still enforced. Though people are going to break the rules more once they see that others do, so it might also be an accelerating effect that the official end of precautions effectively makes a smooth gradient with.
Post by: martinuzz on February 11, 2022, 02:01:08 pm
Damn man, sounds like projection. Get well soon!I am sorry if I offended you, but after half a dozen of pages of posts with people saying that you don't wear facemasks for your own protection, but moreso to protect more vulnerable others, and trying to explain to you the basis of civilized conduct (compassion and caring), you keep repeating 'I'm young and healthy and vaccinated so I'm not at risk'.
Someone had to hold you a mirror of how your contempt for fellow men comes across to many others.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 11, 2022, 02:01:57 pm
That's cool. Still not wearing a mask after the mandates end. Good enough for the health officials, good enough for me!Damn man, sounds like projection. Get well soon!I am sorry if I offended you, but after half a dozen of posts with people saying that you don't wear facemasks for your own protection, but moreso to protect more vulnerable others, and trying to explain to you the basis of civilized conduct (compassion and caring), you keep repeating 'I'm young and healthy and vaccinated so I'm not at risk', someone had to hold you a mirror of how your contempt for fellow men comes across to many others.
Post by: Starver on February 11, 2022, 02:23:47 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 11, 2022, 02:31:32 pm
Post by: dragdeler on February 11, 2022, 02:45:56 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on February 11, 2022, 03:26:32 pm
Post by: Robot Parade Leader on February 11, 2022, 04:12:28 pm
Remember last summer, when everything was going to be over soon and masks could come off back last summer? Remember before Delta?
Remember all the other times they said that, because ... no one cared anymore and they wanted this over last summer? Remember Trump wanted it over Easter ... of 2020...?
The health officials "obviously" are not ok with it. The doctors and the nurses are exhausted and the hospitals are running at capacity. The national guard is still deployed to medical facilities in several states. It doesn't matter, you don't deploy the national guard to anything that isn't an issue. Or at least we didn't used to until everything started falling apart. Elective surgeries and even some major ones are being canceled or pushed back because the hospitals are full of COVID patients. They're firing health officials for even advocating vaccines and masks.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/07/12/tennessee-fires-vaccination-official/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-health-official-placed-leave-154957032.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2021/10/27/covid-19-in-maryland-david-bishai-harford-county/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/04/us/donald-kauerauf-missouri-covid-vaccine.html
There is a reason the masthead of the Washington Post's motto has been "Democracy Dies in Darkness," for a while now.
The health officials "obviously" are not ok with it. Getting rid of Covid mandates, is because they are being forced to. It has nothing to do with "science," and no matter how many people say it does, it doesn't. Those people are repeating a word they often know nothing about because they believe in magic words. They know people might respect "science," and so they say the word, while those who actually do science have guns to their heads. These people would say "If it's good enough for the flubagarbadub, then it's obviously good enough," if they thought "flubagarbadub" would make you do what they say, even if it killed you. It's incredibly disheartening to see just blatant propaganda being repeated as if the number of times it was said would make it true. It doesn't.
Post by: heydude6 on February 11, 2022, 04:26:05 pm
Everyone understands health officials are under improper political pressure, right? Everyone understands the only reason they're thinking of lifting anything is improper political pressure? Right?
I didn't reply to Pwnzerfaust's most recent post because it's clear to me that it's escalated to trolling. Or he has a stubborn insistence on getting the last word, even if he has nothing new to say and so just repeats himself over and over again. Either way it's not good to engage with him anymore.
Don't worry, the rest of us haven't lost our basic pattern recognition skills. It's just history repeating itself again. Possibly forever...
FAKEEDIT: The articles you linked are horrifying though
Post by: Starver on February 11, 2022, 04:34:21 pm
I think they were referring to "cool" with "except that it isnt". It could definitly be cooler. The impeccable logic part you make of that what you want, but I'll read it as "everything has been said no need to argue".Maybe that too but my actual point (already said, so I think I'm ok to say this and still not make it additional argument) was that there are still many health benefits from continuing caution, but the health officials are probably having to concede to the political pressures and acquiesce to populist promises of early return to 'normal' that are then self-mitigating...
I have sympathy with the "if not now, then when? never?" point-of-view, regarding rolling everything back. I'm just railling against "if ever, then it might as well be now", like trying to reach the beach by jumping off a cliff.
(PPE: Yeah, I'm now ninjaed. Had some lengthy diversion into the philosophies of Derek Parfit, etc, to write then edit out again...)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 11, 2022, 04:53:31 pm
Even after the pandemic is over, I will probably continue masking in public transport et al. See, I don't want to catch the flu or a cold either.
Post by: dragdeler on February 11, 2022, 05:23:59 pm
Post by: nenjin on February 11, 2022, 05:57:55 pm
If you walk into a fastfood restaurant, grocery store, shopping outlet or any place that's a few thousand square feet and completely enclosed without a mask, then you're a fucking idiot and eventually you'll get exactly what you signed up for.
Post by: dragdeler on February 11, 2022, 06:04:46 pm
Post by: Frumple on February 11, 2022, 06:16:51 pm
Post by: Iduno on February 11, 2022, 07:06:25 pm
Looks like I've got COVID again. Luckily the CDC says you can go back to work pretty quickly after getting sick even though you're still contagious, which my employer agrees with. No idea how I keep getting sick.It's (knowingly or unknowingly) letting contagious people mix with others[1] that keeps on making new contagious people.
Yeah, I was making a joke there in that last sentence, and wssn't being clear. Fever not good.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 11, 2022, 08:54:39 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on February 11, 2022, 11:14:18 pm
Very briefly, lockdown was kinda wonderful. I had an excuse to turn down in-person events, and I got to cover my face in public.
Hell of a monkey's paw. Being able to swim within mall crowds was something my psyche very much relied on. Even touching shoulders! No more.
This virus fucked everything up for me, ruining my online interactions as I went more and more mad. I needed to touch grass, but it wasn't grass, it was people. And I can't-
I mean I can do it, but I can't immerse myself in the mall in good conscience.
I want lockdowns to be over so I can be myself again. Masked but in a crowd of other individuals!
That will NEVER happen because people are anti-vax.
It's also partially the fault of anti-maskers
The personal-rights argument is simply nonsense. Someone arguing that they have a right to breathe on me might as well be arguing that they have a right to punch me. I'll take my lumps as a member of society, but I would physically stop them from breathing on my grandmother.
Still, I get that some (sexy) people don't like masks. That's rational. As a society, I think we should shun maskless behavior.
Post by: wierd on February 11, 2022, 11:22:42 pm
I really cannot tolerate crowds for long, and earnestly desire a hermetic lifestyle.
One man's meat is another man's poison...
Post by: Rolan7 on February 11, 2022, 11:34:00 pm
I hate it when someone touches me at the mall, I recoil... recoiled, a little. Because I'm
Vampire TTRPG mechanics:
So many of my online friends seem low-humanity nowadays, but me most of all. I am doing my best to hold on to humanity. My mom is helping extremely, chatting with me about her life in retirement next to a church. There's so much to hold on to, there.
Edit:
Two years ago I could have told you all about the individuals I met while walking a loop through the local mall. Being bumped (hss). Such beautiful individuals.
Post by: King Zultan on February 12, 2022, 02:16:04 am
Post by: hector13 on February 12, 2022, 09:24:47 am
I do intend to quit my job soon, not entirely sure how that’s going to affect my desire for socializing as I know those four hours are good for me.
Post by: Starver on February 12, 2022, 09:35:11 am
That was pre-pandemic, and really it hasn't changed much for me, in that regard. Today I have mostly been (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h-z5T8meC84) coding, gaming, editing wiki pages and pondering the mathematics behind the game of my own that I will probably never even complete. Nothing more than a precautionary clearing of the throat has been vocalised, and yet a few thousand (at least) words have gone out towards regular conversational acquaintances who I may or may not have ever met IRL (and then this, if you consider it to count).
I've become wary of crowds, perhaps (I was previously able to bustle through a shopping-centre crowd or sit on a packed bus, obviously those things went away to various nevessary degrees and I'm not dying (figuratively or literally) to jump into such mosh-pits right now) but not people in general. If it weren't for the rain currently battering my windows I might have already walked into the nearest shop (donning my mask prior to entry) and bought some semi-essential supplies for the next few days. This evening (whatever the weather) I shall dine at a house up the road a bit (it has effectively been my 'bubble' since before bubbles were officially a thing) and if I haven't actually needed to speak before that point I shall then start to do so. Ironically, that'll be the most relaxed part of my day.
Yes, I think I can be alone in a crowd and also feel crowded when alone. But all the othe extremes can apply too. This is not at all to bemoan my state of being (neither do I state it proudly), I'm just setting it down on 'paper' as an alternative to doing anything else useful[1]. I'm sure everyone inhabits all these phase-spaces at times, perhaps with different balances and different intensities (actual or perceived).
And I feel myself lucky, generally. If I'm not normal then I feel I 'pass' as normal. Those who actually know might think me reclusive and/or overly outgoing (maybe both!) but the casual passerby might not think much of me other than wonder at the hat I'm wearing, and the not infrequent random social good morning/afternoon/evening on the path over the hill towards the next town over may care little about the hat, just wonder what particular style of music I play. (I don't!) Those unluck enough to catch me around noon might get me hastily correcting myself when checking the time and finding my greeting wrong, and they probably get far more out of me (verbally) than most others on a typical day.
But get me in a meeting (real or virtual) in which a point-of-order seems necessary about why a particular proposed change to documention doesn't actually say what the revising author thinks it says then I can bend earholes with the best of them, ye ken?
So, yeah. To drag this back to the thread-subject... Mask on (indoors/sufficiently enclosed areas, possibly outdoors if a crowd appears, not in my own home/bubble-space, not generally when the nearest person to me is a yodelling-distance away or we pass each other on opposite sides of the trail while I attempt to not fuss their excitable pooch) and that works for me and is within (beyond, in places) the rules. I'm perhaps lucky that way, by circumstance and temperament and all that jazz.
I think I reported, early on in this mess, having pre-pandemic, seen an asian (oriental) student, in the nearest university city, standing in a deserted alleyway just off the busy (traffic and pedestrian) main road having pulled down his facemask (an affectation from prior SARS/MERS events he may have experienced, or just an anti-smog thing, from a home-city far less clean-aired than his current abode) just so that he could smoke! Incongruous at the time. Less so now. But still amusing. He would have looked odd at the time (or exactly as odd as the rest of his transplanted countrypersons, who had not yet become comfortable to go bare-faced), but not these days. Or for forseeable future. Even when not obliged to mask in the open air, there will be some who will.
edit: While I'm here to fix a typo anyway... Hopefully that masked (when not filling lungs with tar!) student won't be more discriminated against, like they were in early-days/slightly-before-lockdown times. It sounds like he, or I, would be targetted by some elements of society these days. But not commonly so around here, at least.
[1] Does anyone know if there's a term for shapes that are partially concave (such as a cresent or gibbous moon, for the sake of argument) but possess a(t least one) point within them from which the vector to a tracing point moving around the perimiter never goes retrograde? i.e., in a radial coordinate system, d(theta) never goes negative in a suitable first derivative description of the path.
Post by: dragdeler on February 12, 2022, 10:05:44 am
Post by: Frumple on February 12, 2022, 10:43:41 am
Post by: Starver on February 12, 2022, 11:56:24 am
First encounter, over the hill, and down the lane towards the tavern (but that's just after where I cut across the field boundary to take the footbridge) a car coming up the lane double-toots me and (though I don't recognise them) I raise a hand in greeting... Their hand is giving me the finger. No idea why. (I'm on the footway on the opposite side, so not that sort of impatience, on this rather wide lane is a bit of a rat-run for semi-locals.) No words spoken. Confusion, even until this moment. *shrug*
Bridge, main(er) road, usual traffic, but I spot a gap in the traffic, both ways after a particular vehicle crosses my path. They stop to let me cross in front of them (again, I don't know who they are - totally not the same vehicle, in appearance or courtesy). Given I was geared up to go after they were past, slightly more awkward for me, but I hand wave my thanks and voice the same (not that they'll have heard me - maybe lip-read). Got speaking out of my system.
By the time I'm over the next road, cut across the frontage and shopping, I was at full (masked) vocalisation for the circumstances.
On the way back, had to dodge a bit into the hedge of the footpath (muddy, narrow) for a couple of people walking shop-wards/towards that bit of civilisation in general. With the second, a polite young lad with a definitely local accent, we overspoke each other ("muddy path"/"heavy bag"; his observation and my explanation why I was happy to stand to one side and exchange which hand the handle was slicing into) which we resolved without otherwise changing our oppositely forward motion.
On the lane, crossed a man with a dog (should know him, I've seen him several times before) for whom I dodged into the carriageway (less legs to coordinate - two, not six!) but did we speak? Might have been a smile-and-nod. Though I have a tendency to baby-talk a greeting to dogs like his.
Nearly time to go up the other road to my meal. Need to change my shoes, or spend much longer cleaning them.
Post by: Vector on February 12, 2022, 05:06:06 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 12, 2022, 09:52:06 pm
Still, I get that some (sexy) people don't like masks. That's rational.
That explains my aversion to masks!
Post by: heydude6 on February 12, 2022, 10:10:33 pm
Fun fact, last March I was going to go on my first date ever, but the government closed the restaurants a week before we were supposed to meet. We were still in what I would call the "discovery" phase of the relationship so weren't really in love with each-other. As a result, the relationship quickly fizzled out since neither of us had really learned to care enough about the another to put in the extra effort needed to keep it aloft.
It honestly hurts I have to say. I haven't met another girl since. I guess I could have tried harder to save this one, but it was the "discovery" phase. I had as much of an emotional connection to her as a girl I had a fun time with at the bar.
I believe there's some insight about the nature of human relationships that could be gleemed from this, but I'd rather hear the opinion of someone more knowledgeable on this kind of stuff.
Post by: martinuzz on February 12, 2022, 10:17:22 pm
In other news, Valentine's day is coming up on Monday. I don't know how many people have plans for that holiday (I certainly don't), but it might be nice to have a friendly discussion about the ways COVID has changed the nature of love and dating rather than get into a culture war over mask mandates.I wonder if I could get rich by opening a tongue condom production line.
Hmm. What would be a good name... Tubber?
"Hi baby, can I do a YouTubber while you #MeTubber me?"
Post by: heydude6 on February 12, 2022, 10:25:22 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 12, 2022, 10:38:50 pm
There are probably articles about it somewhere; pretty sure I read some on the BBC last year in regards to dating ina pandemic.
Of course you could get unlucky like a lady in China, who went on a first date for a meal at a prospective paramour’s apartment, and then got stuck there for four days due to a sudden lockdown.
Post by: Vector on February 12, 2022, 10:42:24 pm
We've been dating since the last week of 2021 but have not yet touched. No holding hands, hugs, kisses, or whatever. This is almost certainly partially due to the COVID situation.
Adversity begets creativity I think. If you can’t do something in person, there are a myriad of ways to spend time with people on the interwebs, what with Zoom calls and things like that.
Respectfully, as a person whose serious relationships thus far have all included a long-distance component since ... 2008, this sucks.
Post by: hector13 on February 12, 2022, 10:51:07 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 12, 2022, 11:08:52 pm
Post by: Vector on February 12, 2022, 11:58:02 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 13, 2022, 12:03:49 am
Post by: heydude6 on February 13, 2022, 12:12:54 am
What you could do is do what I've been doing: go to meetups and meet people. I've been going to weekly board game nights since July or so with 60+ people, meeting people, making friends. It's been a great experience.
Ha! Ironically I used to be part of a board game group that consisted entirely of senior citizens (I was the youngest person there). When Covid hit, we moved it to online which unfortunately didn't have the same magic.
It's one of those things that is never coming back sadly. Even you have to admit that it's never going to be safe for them.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 13, 2022, 12:21:58 am
What you could do is do what I've been doing: go to meetups and meet people. I've been going to weekly board game nights since July or so with 60+ people, meeting people, making friends. It's been a great experience.
Ha! Ironically I used to be part of a board game group that consisted entirely of senior citizens (I was the youngest person there). When Covid hit, we moved it to online which unfortunately didn't have the same magic.
It's one of those things that is never coming back sadly. Even you have to admit that it's never going to be safe for them.
Actually there's a few older people that come to our meetups, like upper 50s, lower 60s. It's actually really cool. Most people there are younger though, 20s and 30s, but it's neat to see a few elders in the mix as well. They're usually playing pretty intense, complicated games, like Terraforming Mars and such.
Honestly though I seriously can't recommend meetups highly enough - it's where my entire present social circle stems from.
Post by: King Zultan on February 13, 2022, 03:47:15 am
Post by: wierd on February 13, 2022, 03:54:07 am
10 people teams, for a 6 player board game....
Post by: TamerVirus on February 13, 2022, 08:03:53 am
How does a board game night work with 60+ people?I think it might help if they had more than one board game :P
Post by: Iduno on February 13, 2022, 11:15:10 am
I'm dating someone, but she's the manager of the local bakery where I constantly go to eat at cafe tables on the way to work. She's also the housemate of someone from my program.
We've been dating since the last week of 2021 but have not yet touched. No holding hands, hugs, kisses, or whatever. This is almost certainly partially due to the COVID situation.
That sucks. At least you're trying, but it doesn't sound great.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 13, 2022, 11:40:02 am
At least you have something going on. I try to avoid falling into despair due to my nonexistent social life//love life. It's kind of depressing at this point because the way things are both are doing not-so-great.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 13, 2022, 12:29:32 pm
How does a board game night work with 60+ people?Oh there's a ton of games that people play, and people move between tables and so on. Last time, I started the night with Coup, then played some Secret Hitler, and finally rounded out the night with a dice game I forget the name of, but basically you roll dice that have crowns, daggers, skulls, and scrolls on the sides and you have to roll crowns and avoid daggers.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 13, 2022, 01:22:32 pm
If anything my mental state flourished under quarantine simply due to the fact that there wasn't a daily flow of assholes hostile simply because I either didn't look them in eye long enough or too long.
Post by: None on February 13, 2022, 07:52:49 pm
I guess I kind of stopped musing as to whether or not that was enough. S'pose I'm resolved to carry my neuroses and wait the world through for a while on yet. I try not to think too much about that, though, or what 'a while on yet' really looks like.
---
Romance? Hah. I haven't so much as smooched since May last year. Odds aren't good as a small longhaired anticapitalist computer weirdo when farmboys are the local hot item, unfortunately. One of these days, it'll be warm enough to get some good shots with my current hair and my red leather jacket though, and that might turn some more heads. Or maybe I should just ask the cute coffee shop manager with the octagonal glasses out, ehehe. (generally don't do this, it's not nice to accost service people when they don't have an out)
Would be nice, though. I don't have much to offer besides general compassion, but I guess I hope for someone out that, that'd be enough for now. Conveying that and finding the same wavelength though, that's another story, yeah?
Post by: Vector on February 13, 2022, 11:05:44 pm
We'll see what happens next
PS: She asked me out, not the other way around. I agree, don't ask out the counter girl/gay/etc.
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 13, 2022, 11:51:03 pm
Nobody buys defective goods, anyway.
Post by: None on February 14, 2022, 12:04:31 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 14, 2022, 01:29:04 am
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 14, 2022, 02:03:19 am
Post by: wierd on February 14, 2022, 03:17:01 am
The phenomenon of "the social gathering" is just a chaotic clusterfuck from my point of reference. Painful to experience vestigially, and even more painful to be forced to participate in. It gets even worse when there is alcohol, or other inebriating substance involved.
It is not a question of "If you try it, you will like it! You should try it more until you do!"
I have tried. I find that no, I do not enjoy social gatherings or situations. They simply remind me of how ... what's a nice and unoffensive way to put this?... How.... "gratingly needy" people are.
It isn't that people go out of their way to be that way; they just are. (By this, I mean to draw a very important distinction that people do not intend to, desire to, or go out of their way to, make themselves central figures, or to focus a discussion with their own perspectives, etc al, as the central focus. It is just a natural component of what I at least, personally consider (and yes, I am painfully aware of the irony there) to be a less developed or discerning way of experiencing the world. The default mechanism human minds have, is the "Self-experiential" model. Things that happened to themselves, personally, weigh much more highly in the decision making apparatus than does a more robust but theoretical model that involves external factors or models of other people's cognition. This has direct ties to, and associations with, the "Theory of Mind" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_mind). This often manifests to the point where more complex models of understanding the world, are simply never even explored to begin with, and exposure to the conception of doing so is onerous, difficult, and sometimes even outright rejected purposefully. Experiencing the world in the "system defaults" manner, with glib and facile attention to details, or structure of a shared physical reality (and focusing much more on undefinable subjective experiences or conceptions) is "more enjoyable", "more desirable", "easier", and "Gives more self-edification", and thus other models of exploring the world, no matter how much more demonstrably accurate or meaningful in the truer sense those other models are. Using the other models thus, detract from the real purpose of the social engagement-- reinforcement of the self (and its subjective experience) within the construct of group consensus (which is demonstrably not the same thing as objective agreement with a real, external world.) People typically do not go out of their way to interact with the world in this way, or with each other in this way-- it is just the default, and thus easiest for them to participate in.)
The issue, is that I do not find conjecture of that nature to be in any way useful, desirable, or edifying. As such, the casual conversational topics that get brought up in social engagements are... Painful... to experience.
I acknowledge that there is a benefit to engaging with other people, to better comprehend the objective world in which we find our subjective-experience-centered consciousnesses embedded; When engaged in properly (eg, with intent to shake loose actual demonstrable truths about reality itself, and not to discuss phantasms of subjectivity as if they were objectively real) it helps to better understand that objective world, that is naturally alien to how our minds intrinsically operate.
As such, solipsism is not a good avenue-- it leads to incestuous and inbred ideology, devoid of more complex understanding and nuance.
The problem, is that the level of engagement and consideration required to discuss such things, is often well outside the comfort zone and experience of most people, and steering a discussion in those directions is uncomfortable for the social gathering. (and thus "Ruins the party")
This puts me in a lose-lose-lose situation, when it comes to social gatherings.
Lose:
I find the superficial-at-best discourse unengaging, and painful.
Lose:
I find being asked to engage the discourse unpleasant-- I am mindful that attempts to actually engage the conversation will ruin the conversation for others. I am mindful that my lack of engagement with the discourse makes me seem aloof, or otherwise makes people think I am being left out-- and that they would like me to engage. (which is a thing I do not want to subject people I like to feeling.) I dislike causing such emotional pain in others.
Lose:
Explaining why I dislike social interaction and engagement leads to conflict and bad feelings in others, who really just want to (well meaningly, but ultimately selfishly) include me. I have to defend a position that looks elitist, sophist, and wantonly harsh to others. Again, I dont fault people for being how they are, it is just not what I need from a social interaction, and thus not something I enjoy. (You have to have a vested interest in understanding and interacting with the shared physical reality we find ourselves embedded in; Again, the way our minds work, does not live in that world. We are cut-off simulations of that world, that engage at the edges. That is simply what we are. The argument is about the level of detail we invest resources into simulating internally. The majority of people do not engage the world this way; You have to have a desire to, and then train yourself to, engage in that mode of behavior.)
To me, going to a party consists principally of:
Watching people say and do stupid shit, on open display. (pronouncedly so when alcohol is involved.)
Watching people discuss absurdities (that seem superficially true, but actually arent) as if they were actually true, real or substantive.
Being made to engage in that level of behavior and discourse, to avoid causing offense or upset.
I find none of those things pleasurable or enjoyable.
I prefer to politely abstain, in the vast majority of circumstances.
Post by: martinuzz on February 14, 2022, 04:06:09 am
I won't say youre wrong. There's indeed a lot of people that never raise above that level.
I will not go to 95 out of a 100 pubs or whatever social meeting places for that reason.
But there's still a 5% that's different, and where I feel at ease and actually find pleasure in social interaction.
Then again, it's fine if you don't like social butterflying, you be you.
Post by: dragdeler on February 14, 2022, 07:00:52 am
Quote
How.... "gratingly needy" people are.
My issue too, if I have to perform in that mindset, it starts to brush off creating frustrations I would otherwise not have.
Post by: wierd on February 14, 2022, 08:25:32 am
(I blame being interrupted by incessant call lights, jockeying for runtime on my center of attention. I am now home, and free from such distractions.)
What I referred to above as the "Default mode" of operation, typically has a person evaluating their internal sense of self, and of self worth, within the context of a social consensus. The party is less about meeting to have fun or some other consideration; It is more a reflexive reinforcement of that consensus-derived self.
This makes total and complete sense. We are social creatures, that rely on complex societal interactions and social standings to advance ourselves, and generally survive against the adversities of the outside world. It is this instinctual need for self-edification within the social heirarchy that compels people to hobknob, and socialize in this glib manner. It produces feelings of belonging, acceptance, and reinforces the ego against the violations of the world outside it.
Take for instance, "The girl huddle."
The girl huddle, is when a group of female friends get together, and discuss things in their lives that are intimately tied to being female. Stereotypically, this takes the form of 3 or more women or girls, discussing relationships, female health, or some intrinsically feminine aspect of life, while engaging in a collective activity, usually a self-beautification regimen. (less stereotypically, it could just be a casual girl-time event at a restaurant, or other informal, and impromptu meetup of such friends.) Its existence and reason for being are ultimately one or more individuals seeking edification and support from their peers, and is literally textbook what I described above-- usually within the context of a romantic relationship one of them is having.
Being able to fraternize this way, provides feelings of support that overcome otherwise systemic feelings of hopelessness about the situation they are meeting over, et al. The meetup itself *IS* the medicine.
This kind of need comes directly from having the "Default" way of interacting with the world; The individual is weak, and requires the support of the social consensus to face adversities. (this is not an accusation or a value judgement; it is more a direct observation that a subjective persona, that relies on the subjective experience alone, requires continual reinforcement from a group consensus, or suffers emotional harm, usually in the form of questioning their identity, and self-worth.)
I have trained myself to think... Differently... about the world.
By coming to terms with tthe harsh reality that my own internal subjective experience is of no practical consequence to the actual objective reality outside of myself, and is thus "unreal", I have sought to find alternative ways to define myself, that are more objective. I do that by testing myself, and learning what my true limits are, and being genuinely honest with criticisms and determinations about myself. Much of the need people have for social interaction, stems from feelings of personal helplessness in the face of adversity-- they need allies to face the world. I have instead, cultivated personal empowerment within myself-- I am by no means capable of fielding *EVERY* adversity, BUT I *AM* capable of fielding a great many forms of it directly without help. (and identifying when, and where, I need assistance, or where I can work to improve.) I derive strength as an entity from that knowledge; I can directly demonstrate it in the objective world-- I do not need a subjective (and fickle) group consensus to reinforce my ego; I can prove it to myself on demand. When the emotional demons come knocking, I can leverage the objective world to put them down.
This has thus, created a set of conditions that replaces the need for the social consensus, with the need to interact with, and successfully simulate and predict, the objective world. The outside world is no longer "hostile" to my ego and consciousness-- It is the very edifice from which I assert my reality.
Again, though, while this may seem like a lesson in applied solipsism, it really isn't. I accept and fully understand that my own simulation of the objective world is by necessity, imperfect and faulted--- I benefit GREATLY by interacting with other people that engage with the objective world, especially when their conclusions are in discord with my own-- rigorous investigation will result in a superior model being formed.
In short, what I seek from a social interaction, and what the vast majority of people seek from a social interaction, are absolutely not the same thing.
Essentially, there is nothing at the typical party that I have an existential need for. I do not derive a benefit from attending; Only onerous difficulty and ponderous sidestepping of ruining the party for others, who do in fact, need it.
Post by: martinuzz on February 14, 2022, 08:42:21 am
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 14, 2022, 08:44:53 am
Just
bad advice alert
bad advice alert
Post by: heydude6 on February 14, 2022, 03:30:13 pm
Just
bad advice alert
bad advice alert
It is indeed incredibly incomplete, and thus of little help to anyone.
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 14, 2022, 03:55:30 pm
Nonsense! Worked for me. Put yourself out there, it'll work for you, too.Just
bad advice alert
bad advice alert
It is indeed incredibly incomplete, and thus of little help to anyone.
Post by: Starver on February 14, 2022, 04:23:31 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 14, 2022, 04:54:00 pm
Just
bad advice alert
bad advice alert
It is indeed incredibly incomplete, and thus of little help to anyone.
Just don't give bad advice, like christ it isn't hard...
Not everyone aspiring to be a Social Butterfly can actually get past the Caterpillar stage...
Sometimes a hawk swoops down and the catapillar is dead.
Post by: Starver on February 14, 2022, 05:39:08 pm
Sometimes a hawk swoops down and the catapillar is dead.Hawks eat caterpillars? Moth-hawks might, I suppose, if they exist. Those that aren't eaten by the Hawk-moths, which do exist although I can't guarantee I'm right about their diet. ;)
In caterpillar 'news': https://www.which.co.uk/news/2021/04/caterpillar-cakes-compared-which-supermarket-came-out-on-top/
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 15, 2022, 01:44:53 pm
Good thing I didn't!Just
bad advice alert
bad advice alert
It is indeed incredibly incomplete, and thus of little help to anyone.
Just don't give bad advice, like christ it isn't hard...
Post by: Starver on February 15, 2022, 02:04:51 pm
Post by: Iduno on February 16, 2022, 09:44:50 am
The news is doing another push right now telling people that they should be tired of caring, and just go back so the economy returns to normal. At best, the people in charge are willing to let everyone get sick and die to make more money. At worst, they've noticed that poor, old, or disabled people are dying faster, and it's eugenics.
I haven't even been able to go to a hospital for what are now old injuries, because the hospitals haven't had capacity here due to all of the COVID patients.
I'm sick of not being able to live my life, because so few people (and none of the people who make decisions) are willing to take responsibility.
Edit: Especially good to note that we have 2 years of experience that shows that there is no "get sick then you're immune". It's a virus that mutates fast enough that if everyone gets it, there are suddenly several more variants. Not spreading the disease is the only solution.
Post by: martinuzz on February 20, 2022, 04:19:34 pm
Post by: heydude6 on February 20, 2022, 04:25:29 pm
People have often joked about the queen living too long, but it's still sad to consider that she make actually go this time.
Post by: Rolan7 on February 20, 2022, 04:56:36 pm
Queen Elizabeth has tested positive for corona.https://twitter.com/pixelatedboat/status/1495377711405015046
I am sorry for her. Not even monarchs deserve covid. Though perhaps I could save my sympathy for people without her level of medical care.
Post by: Starver on February 20, 2022, 05:28:51 pm
And already many people are lapsing into post-pandemic behaviour, misunderstanding the possible continuing dangers of an endemic. (Endemic malaria isn't a walk in the park, but there's the "it's just a bad cold" mentality. Never mind those for whom even a cold aint 'just' anything.)
Anyway, Prince Charles and later Camilla both tested positive, as reported. Even if it wasn't either of them, directly infecting Mummy(in-law), there could easily have been a contact-of-a-contact-of-a-contact of some deputy-bottle-washer at Windsor, and from there it rattled around the rather limited Royal Household to eventually reach HM. And no testing regime is entirely waterproof/immediately conclusive, so it maybe was a matter of time. But I'm not sure it helps that it's helpfully being spread around by the more casual attitude that's been increasing outside in the not-so-sequestered world.
Post by: LordBaal on February 20, 2022, 05:41:52 pm
Post by: wierd on February 21, 2022, 01:27:34 am
Post by: scriver on February 21, 2022, 09:10:00 am
Post by: Frumple on February 21, 2022, 09:21:37 am
Post by: LordBaal on February 21, 2022, 10:29:13 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 21, 2022, 11:42:24 am
Post by: LordBaal on February 21, 2022, 11:45:24 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 21, 2022, 11:50:21 am
Post by: LordBaal on February 21, 2022, 02:18:53 pm
Post by: Pwnzerfaust on February 21, 2022, 03:34:03 pm
(https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/health/covid-cdc-data.html) (archive (https://archive.md/y2qjP))
"As the Americans learned so painfully in Earth's final century, free flow of information is the only safeguard against tyranny. The once-chained people whose leaders at last lose their grip on information flow will soon burst with freedom and vitality, but the free nation gradually constricting its grip on public discourse has begun its rapid slide into despotism. Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master."
Post by: Rolan7 on February 21, 2022, 05:51:56 pm
Isn't she a bit old for a gender transition treatment?You're never too old to start! Unless you live in the UK and have less than a year left to live. You have to "live as" whichever (binary) gender for that long before they'll even consider allowing you access to treatment. The Queen has been notably camera-shy lately but I'm pretty sure she's been seen in dresses during that time, so by her country's crappy laws she's definitely not transitioning.
Post by: hector13 on February 21, 2022, 11:09:50 pm
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Tryhard!
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Though my fingers’ swollen,
Keep them losers postin’, tryhard!
Through flame and counterpostin’
Make ‘em take a toastin’,
Wishin’, they take the bait I type!
All the things I’m missing’,
Real friends and love and kissin,
They pale, to the trollin’ high.
Post some noise, tilt ‘em up,
Tilt ‘em up, post some noise,
Post some noise, tilt ‘em up, tryhard!
Bait ‘em in, flame ‘em out,
Flame ‘em out, bait ‘em in,
Bait ‘em in, flame ‘em out, tryhard!
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Though they disapprovin’
Keep them losers postin’, tryhard!
Don’t try to understand ‘em,
Just bait and flame and trash ‘em,
Soon they’ll be seein’ red, my guy!
My e-peen’s a-throbbin’,
I see that fool a-comin’,
That feelin’? That’s a trollin’ high.
Post some noise, tilt ‘em up,
Tilt ‘em up, post some noise,
Post some noise, tilt ‘em up, tryhard!
Bait ‘em in, flame ‘em out,
Flame ‘em out, bait ‘em in,
Bait ‘em in, flame ‘em out, tryhard!
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Trollin’ trollin’ trollin’
Tryhard.
Tryhard!
I got too much, time on my ha-ands.
And also illness and over-the-counter anti-histamines/hypnotics. My life is great.
(Also if you didn’t have a parent that grew up in the ‘50s or ‘60s, or don’t have passing familiarity with Westerns, it comes from this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKC8pSFg1Vw))
Post by: Starver on February 22, 2022, 09:04:03 am
I got too much, time on my ha-ands....or just about the right amount.
I've been taking ages over my Pretty Boy Floyd filk, over in the (strangely enough) AmeriPol thread. Provisionally "...some will rob you with some rebels / And with 150,000 men...", but I've had to twist the ballad's 'message' to get it to work, enticing as it was to start it.
Quote
And also illness and over-the-counter anti-histamines/hypnotics. My life is great.Yay...? Well, get well soon and... <stares deeply into your eyes> ...when I snap my fingers, you will forget your own name... 3, 2, 1, *snap*
Post by: LordBaal on February 22, 2022, 02:42:40 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 22, 2022, 08:09:54 pm
I just have a minor upper respiratory infection. I also felt better after filling two disposable hankies, folded appropriately in half and then quarters to use it efficiently, with the accumulations of probably around 6 days of said upper respiratory illness, and then gagging horribly on some that got stuck in my throat.
I should probably get over my aversion to periodically blowing my nose during illness since I think the unpleasant shortness of breath I was experiencing wasn’t a symptom of being ill, but having fucktons of gunk in my airways.
Anyway. I was slightly worried that some of the symptoms were covid-related long-term damage to something, rather than my own ineptitude. Glad to have been (hopefully) shown otherwise.
Post by: LordBaal on February 23, 2022, 06:10:41 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 02, 2022, 09:38:44 am
It is eerie how suddenly everyone, even those who supported the face masks, immediatly stopped wearing them, en masse.
The past week I was, literally, the only person still earing a facemask in our neighborhood supermarket (on a total of about 80 people in the store on average, with the exception of a single elderly couple.
Today was even more crazy. I got called 'cancer pedo nazi' in the supermarket by a bunch of drugged and drunk youth dressed up for carnaval, just for wearing a facemask.
For my own safety I shall stop wearing facemasks, I am not looking for a fight.
Also, a lot of people I know now have corona after celebrating carnaval. As was to be expected.
(Dutch carnaval: people dress up in costumes for 5 days drinking beer and snorting speed or coke)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 02, 2022, 10:36:48 am
I'd advise to keep wearing a mask nonetheless...:(
Post by: LordBaal on March 02, 2022, 05:11:24 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 03, 2022, 02:33:59 am
Post by: Rolan7 on March 03, 2022, 02:41:08 am
Post by: martinuzz on March 03, 2022, 07:07:43 am
It is going to be terrible, with a low-ish vaccination grade and hospitals that are either bombed or too busy with war casualties to tend to corona.
Post by: heydude6 on March 03, 2022, 08:44:37 am
Kind of weird that this tread disappeared for a bit, guess a war is more interesting than a disease.
To be fair, a lot of governments are starting to pretend that the pandemic is over. I’m going to University classes in person now, and I have to say, minus the mask mandates it doesn’t really feel like a pandemic anymore.
I’m sure the feeling will come back once the lockdowns resume.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 03, 2022, 09:30:26 am
Post by: Akura on March 04, 2022, 04:17:16 pm
Post by: Starver on March 04, 2022, 04:42:03 pm
(Yes, probaby less than useless for that, if you want to be picky. But not less than useless in general.)
Post by: martinuzz on March 04, 2022, 05:35:57 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on March 04, 2022, 05:55:31 pm
So many nurses and doctors are calling in sick that our health authority has decided that healthcare staff that has tested positive for corona should still come to work, if they have no symptoms.
That.. sounds like ordering people to become a lot of Typhoid Marys.
Post by: martinuzz on March 04, 2022, 06:01:45 pm
Those who come to work with corona will get extra protective gear.
Post by: Starver on March 04, 2022, 06:07:56 pm
Spoiler: Extra protective gear (click to show/hide)
Post by: hector13 on March 04, 2022, 06:43:23 pm
I’m still wearing mine currently as there are various at risk people on my immediate orbit, and I’m alright with an extra layer of safety for them, if you’ll excuse the pun.
Post by: JoshuaFH on March 04, 2022, 06:48:26 pm
Most people are pretty cooperative, though I've had a few that absolutely refuse no matter what.
Post by: Rolan7 on March 04, 2022, 08:24:13 pm
My job removed mask requirements for vaccinated employees today. I've also realized how ugly my coworkers' faces are. I'm still going to wear mine; even without the risk of infection, there's a lot of dust floating around my work area, and the mask really helps with that.Honestly I just want it to stay normal to wear a mask because I want to. Even if Covid was gone (which it extremely isn't, ugh) I feel a lot better in public this way.
Post by: delphonso on March 04, 2022, 09:40:02 pm
If this goes through, and things start opening up again, that will be a huge release of stress for the foreigners here, as well as lighten a huge economic strain on the tourism industry (it is also hard for Chinese people to travel outside their province, unless they drive themselves)
Post by: coalboat on March 05, 2022, 10:27:54 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 06, 2022, 08:21:29 am
Loosening restrictions means this sort of shit :(So many nurses and doctors are calling in sick that our health authority has decided that healthcare staff that has tested positive for corona should still come to work, if they have no symptoms.
That.. sounds like ordering people to become a lot of Typhoid Marys.
Post by: Duuvian on March 07, 2022, 12:21:47 pm
One idea I had after I heard about it was for a new Lend/Lease act to primarily be used for joint US and China projects on infrastructure and development in less wealthy and also wartorn nations as I believe that could be a desirable outcome for the populace of both the US and China as well as those nations. Is this whole thing a really bad idea? Serious question as I don't know much about the subject yet or what would be possible or well advised.
Post by: wierd on March 07, 2022, 01:30:14 pm
Loosening restrictions means this sort of shit :(So many nurses and doctors are calling in sick that our health authority has decided that healthcare staff that has tested positive for corona should still come to work, if they have no symptoms.
That.. sounds like ordering people to become a lot of Typhoid Marys.
My own workplace wants to try this stupid game also.
Sadly, the adage of "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes" seems to not be understood. Healthcare workers getting ill from covid exposure likely is correlated strongly with the "But we GOTSA KEEP OPENZ! LOcKDoWnz BAAYYUUD!" and "Muh Freedumz!", keeping the virus at a sufficiently mobile level.
Really, our society is in denial about the reality of the situation, and wants to pretend that if we ignore the problem, things will get better. (rather than worse.)
This is because doing things like we should have done them (which is too little too late to do now, sadly) was "Hard", and "Expensive."
Well, Stupid games, stupid prizes.
Next, the attrition of HCWs leaving the vocation because of the stupid games and stupid prizes, will not be tenable, and the system will break. When it does, everyone being super denial morons about it will wonder why, and the Muh Freedumz! crowd will suggest forcing HCWs back into the vocation. Somehow. (Despite the hilarious 180 about-face about "Freedum" that would be.)
Yeah, I am real salty and cynical about this.
Post by: Duuvian on March 07, 2022, 02:00:36 pm
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6753/text?r=10&s=1
To provide enhanced authority for the President to enter into agreements with the Government of Ukraine to lend or lease defense articles to that Government to protect civilian populations in Ukraine from Russian military invasion, and for other purposes.
Also that was bad of me to think such a bill would go beyond Ukraine. That's what I was worried about so I hesitated to just call for something like that without trying to learn about it. I would like to help out other countries including China with covid medicines if we have a surplus during low case numbers.
I don't have expectations of Xi and Biden to become best friends but I do hope for warming relations over time between our two countries.
I actually haven't checked this thread lately, sorry for not paying as much attention. It looks like there are a lot of places with high numbers still.
I wouldn't mind a covid lockdown but it might have to be organized in a rolling fashion around the world and all the places with outbreaks at once.
Do you think Omicron will be the last big wave? I don't know but I hope so. If the scale of it goes down at some point I'd hope we might have enough pandemic savvy to eliminate it if that's possible.
Post by: TamerVirus on March 15, 2022, 01:31:26 pm
Another wave developing?
Post by: TD1 on March 15, 2022, 08:07:08 pm
Post by: delphonso on March 15, 2022, 11:53:27 pm
Omicron BA.2 “stealth” variant is gaining traction around the world.
Another wave developing?
Certainly will make its rounds around the US.
Post by: scriver on March 16, 2022, 04:14:35 am
Post by: Trapezohedron on March 16, 2022, 04:43:20 am
Stealth how? Ba what?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-02/covid-omicron-subvariant-ba-2-what-do-we-know-about-vaccines-infections?utm_medium=cpc_search&utm_campaign=NB_ACQ_DSAXX_DSATESTTCPAXX_EVG_XXXX_XXX_COALL_EN_EN_X_BLOM_GO_SE_XXX_XXXXXXXXXX&gclid=CjwKCAjwlcaRBhBYEiwAK341jZlVxbMI5xBF544emEe52NvLpKbiOdsFLjraTmrRy8ETqnqT6nIADBoCMogQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
Post by: Starver on March 16, 2022, 06:38:48 am
Both are 2/Feb/2022 (or Feb/2/2022, if you prefer) so more than a month of understanding, and development of scenarios, has passed since it was originally newsworthy. I expect that much of the possible tracking has been wound down, even though what tracking is done is now more nuanced. So as long as BA.2 continues to be "not generally worse", and no other VOI arises, I don't think it means more than Covid cases rising (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60709712) in general does, nor will it stop the total lifting of various restrictions/precautions (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60741158) (which I'm not convinced is 'following the science', just politics telling the cautious science that it's not more convincing than the shouty finance).
Still officially keeping masks in Scotland (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60750364), and I'm not intending to stop this trivial precaution for the forseeable future...
[1] Probably the question-mark onwards could be snipped, which may be how they track shares but really isn't necessary and I see no need to consciously help them. But I also imagine Bloomberg is also embedded-ad-heavy if I try it and check myself, so excuse me if I don't.
Post by: None on March 17, 2022, 12:31:30 pm
they only come in two packs
fuck it, buy a ten pack of AA batteries while i'm there
$40
that's over half a day's wage if you're poor, #blessed to have a job that pays a living wage
good news- insurance will reimburse the covid test purchase
you can't do it over the phone
you need to make an account on their website even when you already have insurance with them
you need to print out a pdf
you need to mail the pdf and the receipt
but don't worry guys, covid numbers are way down
(take home results are inconclusive - was that a line by the T? if i squint really, really hard? it's gone five minutes later)
this country is a scam
Post by: martinuzz on March 17, 2022, 12:38:35 pm
Post by: lemon10 on March 19, 2022, 01:20:51 pm
In case you don't like all that bumf[1] in that URI, try https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60233899Yeah, its definitley about the politics instead of about the science.
Both are 2/Feb/2022 (or Feb/2/2022, if you prefer) so more than a month of understanding, and development of scenarios, has passed since it was originally newsworthy. I expect that much of the possible tracking has been wound down, even though what tracking is done is now more nuanced. So as long as BA.2 continues to be "not generally worse", and no other VOI arises, I don't think it means more than Covid cases rising (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60709712) in general does, nor will it stop the total lifting of various restrictions/precautions (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60741158) (which I'm not convinced is 'following the science', just politics telling the cautious science that it's not more convincing than the shouty finance).
Still officially keeping masks in Scotland (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60750364), and I'm not intending to stop this trivial precaution for the forseeable future...
That said, people are indeed fed up with masks, especially re: Children, so if the goverments keep up the mask mandates that will just lead to anti-vax pro-covid people taking over and dismantling anything intended to combat covid.
So in a way it is scientifically based even if the science is "Yeah, Trump/Bolsanaro's spiritual brother will take power and make sure more people get covid which is bad".
---
They just dropped mask mandates in schools here in Cali this week, which as someone that works at a school is worrying. It won't stop me from keeping my mask on.
I wouldn't mind a covid lockdown but it might have to be organized in a rolling fashion around the world and all the places with outbreaks at once.No, Omnicron will never be eliminated (barring medicine advancing to the sci-fi level or the apocalypse) any more then the common cold will be eliminated. The reason for this is that it can infect animals including cats (including big cats), dogs, deer, ferrets, gorillas, otters, and certainly many others.
Do you think Omicron will be the last big wave? I don't know but I hope so. If the scale of it goes down at some point I'd hope we might have enough pandemic savvy to eliminate it if that's possible.
So even if we 100% get rid of it in humans it will just spread beck to humans from deer or pets.
It might keep getting milder, and at some point it might not be any more dangerous then the cold, but its entirely possible that it will only get a bit milder (read: Has a decent chance of causing permanent long term damage or killing you if you are already unhealthy) then just stay at that danger level forever.
Post by: martinuzz on March 28, 2022, 09:59:04 am
In just the past 4 weeks, 8.8 million people tested positive for corona.
In the entire first two years of the pandemic, less than a million people were infected.
The total number of infected in the country is now 11.8 million. In early februari, the total was 900000.
The Korean government says the omikron variant is responsible for the vast outbreak. They say they will treat it like they would treat a seasonal flu. According to the government, there are no deaths under 60 years of age for those that are vaccinated and boosted.
Yet, over the past week, 300-400 deaths have been reported, where before it were only a few dozen per week.
The South Korean ministry of Health has asked crematoria to work longer hours, and expand their capacity. It also lifted restrictions, allowing bodies to be moved across region boundaries for cremation, to relieve pressure on local crematoria.
Corona is also on the rise in Germany (4,7 million infections over the past 4 weeks) and Vietnam (5,7 million infections)
Post by: King Zultan on March 29, 2022, 01:27:28 am
Post by: delphonso on March 30, 2022, 05:03:20 am
You get tested when you fly from risky locations and they come scoop you up if you test positive. Downside is that it takes about 10 hours. Some dude flew in yesterday, checked into a hotel and hit the town. Coffee shop, restaurant, then bar. My friend was at the bar when the medical staff arrived. Everyone shipped off to a quarantine hotel. Probably hundreds contacted, if not a thousand people (popular cafe and busy bar-night). It's looking very likely we'll have a bad wave of covid here. Particularly bad because a lot of people here haven't gotten their 3rd shot. It was so low risk here before, the vaccines were sent to Shenzhen and Shanghai instead.
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2022, 03:06:18 pm
No idea of the context of the test, how/if their immediate (same-home) family or beyond had tested, what they're doing regarding isolation. It was just a quick note to let me know, and I really didn't wish to pry when I passed on my best wishes.
I don't know if it was tests left over from before the free-LFTs stopped the other day (was in England), more recent personally bought-in ones or what.
It does make me feel better about my New Year illness, that I just suffered through being already pretty much isolated and not getting the 'key' symptoms. It makes it even less likely I caught Covid (which I already doubted it was!) from these people during my last contact with them around Christmas, as it sounds like they'd been testing semi-regularly/at need, and there was no such note as this, at the time. And three months is a little while, but it significantly reduces the chances of it being a 'reinfect' event.
All of this is just speculation on my part, I know the logic isn't absolute. But the biggest thing going through my mind is that it's just at the point where (for some) the 'inexorable and irreversal return to normality' has been pushed into being. And, surprise surprise, after two years of generally dodging the bullet I've for the first time actually been close enough to hear one ricochetting around. Correlation ≠ causation, for this so-far singular personal datum, but it'll do as anecdotal data. ;)
edited for annoying and tablet-typical typos... Also awful sentence construction, but that was just bad choices, not typos, so that aspect left alone.
Post by: TD1 on April 07, 2022, 01:11:15 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 13, 2022, 03:35:34 am
I'm the only person in my family not to get it, hah. They're all unvaccinated and got it at various points over the last few years. No issues with any of them, including the 70 year olds thankfully.My friends and I are having a contest to see who can make it the longest without ever catching it. We're now down to just two people, after my doctor friend caught it last week. Despite my job being to get people to cough up their lungs for a living, I'm still in the running! Precautions seem to work well when you're diligent, whereas all but one of my family managed to come down with Covid over Christmas because they didn't wash their hands. Now kids are wonderful, but if they give you anything - a truffle, a sweet or a tangerine, doesn't matter what it is, they're giving you a flu. That was wisdom I learned way before Covid but it bears repeating
Post by: martinuzz on April 13, 2022, 03:46:39 am
Despite my job being to get people to cough up their lungs for a livingI've been puzzling what your job is. With your frequency of posting I was thinking, submarine crew, oil rig crew.. Off the grid for a week, then back to posting.
But I think I got it now! You are a coal mine overseer! No internets 1 mile below the earth xD
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 13, 2022, 03:55:14 am
I've been puzzling what your job is. With your frequency of posting I was thinking, submarine crew, oil rig crew.. Off the grid for a week, then back to posting.Well at this rate I've been changing industry every two years so you never know. Right now I'm respiratory health research technician, and I can't tell whether I was fortunate or unfortunate to work in lung health during Covid, but it seems to have worked out all right. Maybe next year I'll try to be a sea captain
But I think I got it now! You are a coal mine overseer! No internets 1 mile below the earth xDNow if I could work in a salt mine or something I'd definitely see if I could carve a giant urist into the wall. Don't mess with coal though. Coal dust is dangerous stuff
Post by: Starver on April 13, 2022, 06:48:59 am
Coal dust is dangerous stuffAh, black lung disease (ironically, often paired with 'vibration white finger'), but at least it isn't pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis...
Post by: TD1 on April 13, 2022, 12:45:23 pm
I'm the only person in my family not to get it, hah. They're all unvaccinated and got it at various points over the last few years. No issues with any of them, including the 70 year olds thankfully.My friends and I are having a contest to see who can make it the longest without ever catching it. We're now down to just two people, after my doctor friend caught it last week. Despite my job being to get people to cough up their lungs for a living, I'm still in the running! Precautions seem to work well when you're diligent, whereas all but one of my family managed to come down with Covid over Christmas because they didn't wash their hands. Now kids are wonderful, but if they give you anything - a truffle, a sweet or a tangerine, doesn't matter what it is, they're giving you a flu. That was wisdom I learned way before Covid but it bears repeating
I'm not sure which came first - your message, or me saying in the WTF thread that I've got covid :P
Either way, yea, I'm out of the running now.
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 13, 2022, 05:50:05 pm
Post by: Sirus on April 13, 2022, 06:33:44 pm
This was long before home tests and vaccines and everything else became available, even before folks had a solid idea on which symptoms to look for, so I have no idea what made me sick. Might have been covid, but considering the lack of long-term effects and the fact that no one else in my family became ill I sorta doubt it.
Post by: nenjin on April 21, 2022, 11:25:15 am
More people are getting sick, although it's sore throats and allergies and other things in addition to covid.
I feel like we're going to have another resurgence very soon, or early summer.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 21, 2022, 01:02:13 pm
EDIT: Tried to find out about the newer variants by looking at the CDC website. What a waste of time. The CDC remains completely useless in promulgating accurate information in a timely fashion. The CDC has only ever been useful in understanding legal responsibilities of businesses (basically, lots of state regulations refer to the CDC, thus if you follow CDC guidelines, the State is less concerned with you).
Post by: Iduno on April 21, 2022, 07:34:15 pm
The thing is on the rise again, anecdotally from where I'm standing. They wheeled my neighbor across the hall out on a stretcher Tuesday night. Another friend's family has it, again, 2nd time now. My boss' son got it again, even triple vacc'd, along with 3/4 of the wait staff at the restaurant he works at. All this within the last week.
More people are getting sick, although it's sore throats and allergies and other things in addition to covid.
I feel like we're going to have another resurgence very soon, or early summer.
Nah, we've changed the definition of a resurgence so it isn't counted. That way we can keep killing off elderly, disabled, poor, etc. people with the disease without affecting profits too much.
Post by: None on April 21, 2022, 07:51:03 pm
Less nonsensically, and just as anecdotally- jesus everyone is sick right now. Sister's family, half my work team, leadership from development teams. Covid? My coworkers, yes.
So glad I get to work from home.
My small town is about to have its big spring drinking binge this weekend, so I'm going to do my very best not to rub elbows with anyone for the next two weeks.
Post by: martinuzz on May 13, 2022, 03:33:50 am
Today, North Korea reported it's first corona death, and 187000 infected.
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2022, 04:13:16 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 14, 2022, 10:00:52 pm
Post by: Starver on May 15, 2022, 03:54:36 am
Post by: scriver on May 15, 2022, 04:58:01 am
Post by: EuchreJack on May 15, 2022, 05:10:12 am
See, new COVID causes mucus to shoot out of your eyes. Thus, masking the nose and mouth is ineffective.
(Thankfully, I wear glasses and have been isolating since that newest symptom)
Post by: None on May 16, 2022, 08:23:48 am
They were convinced it was just a flu because 'the turnaround time for infection to showing symptoms was too short' (four days by their estimate) and weren't inclined to do an at-home test as a result until my sister and I persisted and told them about the free ones they can get in the mail. They were still going to isolate anyways, but.
You'd think "I've never had a flu that felt like this before" might be a clue, bit now they know.
Good news is, they're vaccinated, so they're just miserable for now. Speaking of, that prompted me to look at recommendations for 2nd boosters, so if you're one of those few people that got BOTH the JnJ vaccine and JnJ booster, you're eligible whatever your age for a second booster of Pfizer/Moderna. I dunno that anyone here is over fifty, but if you are, you're eligible for boosting too as long as it's been four months since your last jab.
Or maybe you sit tight for a few more months:
Quote from: CDC guidance
If you are eligible, can you wait?
Even if you are eligible for a 2nd booster, you may consider waiting to get a 2nd booster if you:
Had COVID-19 within the past 3 months
Feel that getting a 2nd booster now would make you not want to get another booster in the future (a 2nd booster may be more important in fall of 2022, or if a new vaccine for a future COVID-19 variant becomes available)
So we're all due for a booster soon here anyways, and the greatest threat related to it comes from potential unwillingness to get one. Not that it's particularly new information, but it's current information. Stay safe, everyone.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 16, 2022, 08:59:44 am
And yeah, this one hits FAST. I went from first symptom on Thursday to positive test on Saturday.
But weird incubation period, as I suspect infection occurred Monday. So yeah, this little shit flies under the radar.
Post by: TamerVirus on May 31, 2022, 06:13:40 pm
Return to Monkepox
Post by: Egan_BW on May 31, 2022, 06:15:57 pm
Post by: Starver on May 31, 2022, 08:29:53 pm
Post by: Frumple on May 31, 2022, 08:46:05 pm
I mean, a virus which turns us all into monke would solve alotta problems, you have to admit.Sadly, the monkeypox makes no one gayer than a barrel of bonobos. Instead it makes you miserable and appears to have something like a 1-3% fatality rate, so. Here's to finding out if the US can lose another million to a new plague!
Post by: hector13 on May 31, 2022, 09:03:29 pm
Post by: Sirus on May 31, 2022, 09:22:06 pm
Post by: Ziusudra on May 31, 2022, 09:36:34 pm
I haven't been keeping up with the news. What's this about a new plague? We can't even get rid of the first one.It's actually old - 1st identified in the 50s I think - and it's a variant of chicken pox so we already hav a vaccine. It's called monkey pox because it was 1st identified in them, but the main place it's found is rodents.
Post by: King Zultan on June 01, 2022, 01:09:16 am
Post by: scriver on June 01, 2022, 03:38:41 am
Shame. I would like to return to monke
Post by: hector13 on June 01, 2022, 03:54:36 am
Post by: Starver on June 01, 2022, 05:37:25 am
Of course the underlying pathogen isn't anything as dangerous and an existential threat as HIV. That one of the current standard preventatives/treatments is to use Smallpox vaccines might not convince some people of its relatively benign nature, but...
Oh, and and there have been warnings in the UK that those isolating due to (potential) monkeypox should also isolate from their pets (especially rodents, more a natural home to the disease than anything in the m-word line) and I believe some countries have arranged for pets to be actually taken to quarantine facilities.
(Right now, the stigma for having suspected monkeypox, or even a risk of it, is on various levels. If it doesn't calm down to near-zero quickly enough then expect the equivalent of haemophiliac-discrimination on some other sub-group that gets caught up in whatever moral-panics strike, in the gap between it being an apparently 'telling' rare disease and the realisation that it doesn't necessarily mean that you have behaved particularly unwisely/'immorally', to have been so afflicted...)
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 01, 2022, 09:30:58 am
My news (Swedish Television news, as usual, so less likely to spread moralist rumours, I think) says this one variant seems to spread mostly via sexual contact. So after having completely isolated myself from the world for two years I am even more safe than I was before.Coughing on people can also spread it. The sexual advice warning is a recent addition because it was not known previously to be passed on via sexual intercourse, but logically if contact with an infected blanket can spread it, then so could sex. On the bright side because the symptoms are so obvious it is fairly easy to identify. One also interesting thing I learned from one of my big bosses who was recently in contact with a monkeypox patient was that you can treat monkeypox with a smallpox vaccine. One of the few diseases where the prophylaxis is also the cure
Shame. I would like to return to monke
Post by: Starver on June 01, 2022, 09:59:03 am
(Though, even in the current era of Prep, etc, I find that such an indiscriminate lack of precautions of this kind is far more risky, still, for other primary STDs... I think it says far more about the other potential health issues. But with a novel (outbreak of) disease like this I don't think the quite specific caution is excessively misplaced, and if it reinforces the best-practices to further mitigate the 'traditional' transmittable diseases then it can't hurt.)
I suppose I could hunt down the various advices and rationalise them, but I can't see them being relevent to myself and others (yourself?) with more direct contact with the healthcare system can probably work out what's important to know without too much rooting around in less-visited sources.
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 10, 2022, 11:08:36 am
I have tested positive for the coof. Body is heavy, coughing all night, breathing hard, head feels like it's on fire and about to explode, sudden urge to take cruises & business trips. Definitely covid-19
Post by: Starver on June 10, 2022, 12:32:03 pm
BTW, did you hear that a woman in the US has successfully claimed* against a car insurer for having caught HPV while having sex in a car they had covered? Food for thought!
* Or at least Geico has now twice unsuccessfully undefended in two different courtrooms...
Post by: Frumple on June 10, 2022, 12:40:16 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on June 10, 2022, 09:18:30 pm
It's all ogre nowRest in peace I mean good luck LW! Enjoy your cruises!
I have tested positive for the coof. Body is heavy, coughing all night, breathing hard, head feels like it's on fire and about to explode, sudden urge to take cruises & business trips. Definitely covid-19
Post by: delphonso on June 11, 2022, 02:40:31 am
Post by: Starver on June 14, 2022, 05:18:11 pm
[1] "hMPV" is short for "human MetaPneumoVirus". I'm not familiar what this new one's "X" might be about. Maybe denoting an additional zoonotic-crossover elememt to its nature, or it's a tenth-subversion, or they just had a cat walk across their keyboard in the first place... ;)
Post by: nenjin on June 14, 2022, 05:39:41 pm
It's all ogre now
I have tested positive for the coof. Body is heavy, coughing all night, breathing hard, head feels like it's on fire and about to explode, sudden urge to take cruises & business trips. Definitely covid-19
See you on the other side.
A side note that the WHO is now looking to get some less misaligned/contentious/vague name used for "Monkeypox". Though I doubt it will be "hMPXV"[1], at least for most people who then try to remember it in public, it seems to be a prominent suggestion from the shortlist.
[1] "hMPV" is short for "human MetaPneumoVirus". I'm not familiar what this new one's "X" might be about. Maybe denoting an additional zoonotic-crossover elememt to its nature, or it's a tenth-subversion, or they just had a cat walk across their keyboard in the first place... ;)
Human Meta Pneumo X T R E M E Virus.
Honestly the abbreviation read to me like Human Monkey Pox Virus.
Post by: Ziusudra on June 14, 2022, 05:51:22 pm
Quote from: https://virological.org/t/urgent-need-for-a-non-discriminatory-and-non-stigmatizing-nomenclature-for-monkeypox-virus/853
Monkeypox is a disease caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV) from the Orthopoxvirus genus in the family Poxviridae.
Post by: King Zultan on June 15, 2022, 01:54:29 am
Human Meta Pneumo X T R E M E Virus.If you put extreme in the name all the hip kids are gonna want to have some.
Post by: TD1 on June 15, 2022, 04:48:26 am
It's all ogre nowDude you need to meet my bro Cummings
I have tested positive for the coof. Body is heavy, coughing all night, breathing hard, head feels like it's on fire and about to explode, sudden urge to take cruises & business trips. Definitely covid-19
---
Hope you feel better now! It took me about 9/10 days to feel fully myself.
Post by: None on June 15, 2022, 09:33:44 am
Still can't help but wonder what the actual infection rate is right now, since last I knew so many of the testing sites were closed up in deference to those take-home tests that people have to opt into reporting on.
Post by: Vector on June 15, 2022, 03:57:28 pm
Post by: Starver on June 15, 2022, 04:24:45 pm
(Again, of course, all my best wishes that you, and yours, are going to be Ok.)
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 27, 2022, 06:08:40 am
Apparently it's running high, again, in various parts of the UK. Maybe a Jubilee Jump or two, though I think you've said you're also in a high-contact/high-likelihood position anyway, IIRC. (Though not personally at high risk, so I hope it's a quick recovery rate, too. All the best, on that front!)I spent 2 hours in a train next to a guy coughing with no mask, and his cough was an infectious sounding one (asthmatic/copd coughs are very distinct from typically infectious ones), the one day I forgot my own mask because I left the house at 4:30 AM due to train strikes. On the bright side the train strikes did give me an easy week back too. The train strikes giveth, the train strikes taketh
Hope you're doing better Vec
Post by: hector13 on June 27, 2022, 01:24:58 pm
Hopefully you also get your taste and smell back, assuming you lost it. My cousin is still dealing with having weird taste sensations when he eats, months after his recovery, and I occasionally smell cigarette smoke for a day or so at a time in a household with no smokers almost two years after I recovered from mine.
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 27, 2022, 01:41:06 pm
Post by: scriver on June 27, 2022, 01:44:52 pm
Memory's fine as far as I can tell,
Well...
Post by: Sirus on June 27, 2022, 03:45:04 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 27, 2022, 04:04:51 pm
I can't believe that WAP is just a burning memory (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-nO3bE4rmY)Memory's fine as far as I can tell,
Well...
Post by: hector13 on June 27, 2022, 04:59:37 pm
Lately I feel like I'm running on borrowed time. Still no covid in the house (unless someone had an exceptionally minor case that no one picked up on), but every bit of news regarding covid symptoms or new variants just make the thing sound worse and worse. I'm more than a little afraid that when someone does get it, it will be brutal regardless of how many vaccines and boosters we've all had.
It seems like the symptoms are getting milder with each new variant. Could just be that LW is fitter than me, which isn’t difficult, but I was in horrible pain for two weeks, then just in pain for a further two weeks with OG Covid, plus no taste or smell for a few weeks beyond that.
I didn’t really have any respiratory symptoms though, other than it hurting to take a deeper-than-normal breath.
Post by: Frumple on June 27, 2022, 06:05:06 pm
It seems like the symptoms are getting milder with each new variant.I... haven't noticed any reporting on anything even remotely looking like that. Treatments have been improving, but symptomatic severity and overall danger/lethality/etc. has largely seemed to be about the same (while infectiousness increases) with each new variant.
Post by: TD1 on June 28, 2022, 03:47:09 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 28, 2022, 10:55:29 am
Post by: heydude6 on June 28, 2022, 03:10:55 pm
That mind haze stuff sounds very similar to attention span loss caused by too much social media and YouTube. It’s not like there was anything else to do while locked up indoors.
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 28, 2022, 05:21:47 pm
The symptoms of long-Covid have always seemed way too similar to the symptoms of depression and stress for my taste.I worked on one of the studies checking for long-term effects of Covid and there are (or at least, were) definitely things which were noticeable. Some effects like muscle atrophy, severe weight loss, hernias, depression, PTSD e.t.c. were directly attributable to lying down for 4 weeks in a hospital bed, and weren't necessarily (or even likely) the result of Covid itself. Then you have cases where people already had pre-existing conditions and Covid hit them like a truck, making their pre-existing conditions much worse.
That mind haze stuff sounds very similar to attention span loss caused by too much social media and YouTube. It’s not like there was anything else to do while locked up indoors.
But when it comes to long Covid, there are clear and distinct symptoms like incredibly high blood pressure, even by standards of high blood pressure. Breathlessness doing basic motions even though the lungs themselves had no scarring, blockages or tightness. And when I say mind haze, I mean serious lack of focus - like being under the effects of nitrogen narcosis or alcohol constantly. One of my colleagues had it and walked into my office one day with a cup of coffee in his hand. He looked very lost and asked me where the staff commons was - but he's worked here for 12 years. One of my patients described it as being able to listen and follow a conversation but then immediately forget all the details the moment he tried to remember them. He said if he didn't have an AI assistant giving him constant schedule reminders he would've forgotten to show up for his appointment. In memory tests patients could memorise words, but be unable to actually recall the words they memorised. The closest way to imagine it would be the feeling you get when you walk into a room to get something, but forget what you were there for - but imagine that always for everything.
Now I'm fairly optimistic because a general trend was noticed nationwide that serious hospitalisation cases were getting shorter, so people were staying 4-5 weeks in the hospital in the first wave, then staying 1-2 weeks in the second wave, and staying for days in the 3rd. Not only that, but long covid symptoms were getting weaker, and recovery times shorter. Part of that is vaccines, part of that is doctors and nurses now knowing best courses of action. Dexamethasone for example has been proven to aid patient survival and recovery from Covid-19, but one interesting side effect is that it also helped with long-covid. Ongoing research (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/226014/long-covid-unpicking-lasting-impact-covid-19/) suggests that an auto-immune response may be causing people to still have covid-like symptoms long after they stopped actually having a covid infection, and dexamethasone is an immune suppressant. So yeah, breathlessness that is not caused by asthma or lung damage, loss of taste/smell, insanely high blood pressure, fatigue & "dulled" focus, all are noticeable consequences of covid-19 infections that seem to affect some people greatly but most not at all, that are clearly distinct from stress or depression. There are also muscle aches and pains, but I don't know if those are the result of long-covid or lying down too long. If I had to guess, it's probably from the inactivity
Post by: Grim Portent on June 29, 2022, 05:16:51 pm
Genuinely found it hard to walk when I got up this morning the pain was so bad.
Post by: Frumple on June 29, 2022, 06:02:36 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on June 29, 2022, 07:13:39 pm
... well, good luck. May you and your family avoid death and/or permanent organ damage.
Main concern is we brought my gran, who's well into her eighties, to stay with us on Sunday because she was unwell and we're not sure when we contracted the virus, and on top of that she's still here because we like to keep an eye on her for a few days before we let her go home after illness or accidents. So now there's a risk she's going to get it, though my father hasn't somehow, so there's some hope.
Personally assuming it was the funeral we went to last week, but there's not really any way to tell. Might even have caught it from my gran on Sunday.
EDIT: So my gran is indeed positive, but now we're thinking she's the one we've caught it from, though her symptoms were different, and the state she was in on Saturday/Sunday was just her at the worst point of her infection, so she's probably going to be fine. Or as fine as a woman in her state of general health can be.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 03, 2022, 01:07:08 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on July 03, 2022, 05:43:23 pm
Well that's about as good as it gets these days, so that's at least a small silver lining
We're all mostly better now, my gran more so than my mum or I. At this point she's just getting fed up with being here rather than at her own house, she's never sure what to do with herself when she's here for more than a day or two.
I'm technically past the current suggestions for isolation, and I'm feeling fine now other than being a bit more mucusy than normal, and a bit more fatigued than normal. Not sure I'd inflict myself on anyone outside the family yet, and I think I'd throw a mask on if I had to.
Mum works for the NHS, so she's still having to test. This was also supposed to be her week off, so not sure if she's going to be able to claim some of those days back. She's still tired and mucusy, but less than before.
All in all my family continues a trend of getting gentle cases of COVID, with no obvious long COVID symptoms showing themselves yet in my sister, nephew, brother or sister-in-law who all had COVID several months ago. Maybe the strain rattling around Scotland is a mild one.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 04, 2022, 09:34:18 am
Post by: heydude6 on July 04, 2022, 11:51:22 am
Maybe the strain rattling around Scotland is a mild one.
Or you're just built of strong stuff
Maybe all the Scottish are.
Post by: hector13 on July 04, 2022, 06:39:11 pm
Maybe the strain rattling around Scotland is a mild one.Or you're just built of strong stuff
Maybe all the Scottish are.
The Scots are fat or junkies, by and large.
Post by: Grim Portent on July 04, 2022, 07:31:56 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 04, 2022, 08:50:35 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on July 21, 2022, 05:49:24 pm
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Post by: heydude6 on July 21, 2022, 06:27:02 pm
Post by: Vector on July 21, 2022, 07:09:27 pm
(p-president harris?)
Post by: Rolan7 on July 21, 2022, 07:36:13 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 21, 2022, 11:42:56 pm
Post by: Sirus on July 22, 2022, 02:48:54 pm
Two days and two tests later I still show as negative. I'm sure the home 15-minute tests have higher error rates than a proper PCR screen, but odds are I'm in the clear.
Post by: Bumber on July 22, 2022, 09:33:33 pm
JOE BIDEN GOT COVID
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
He's going to have difficulty smelling peoples' hair now.
Post by: hector13 on July 22, 2022, 10:29:13 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 23, 2022, 07:11:22 am
Post by: delphonso on July 23, 2022, 07:45:19 am
Hey guess what I've got the covid again and it's god awful the rest of the family has it to, so fun times for all in this house. So much for the vaccine this time around seem to be worse than the first.
Best of luck, KZ! I hear BA.4,5 are pretty bad...
Here in China, we've still only had boosters for Delta, and now Omicron is tearing its way across the country, with additional cases of the newer 4 and 5 variants too. Ride the wave baby.
Post by: Vector on July 23, 2022, 04:02:40 pm
Monkeypox has also now been declared a public health emergency by the WHO:
Quote from: from NYT
Nearly all the infections outside Africa have occurred among men who have sex with men. The outbreak has galvanized many in the L.G.B.T. community, who have charged that monkeypox has not received the attention it deserves, as happened in the early days of the H.I.V. epidemic.
The W.H.O.’s declaration is “better late than never,” said Dr. Boghuma Titanji, an infectious diseases physician at Emory University in Atlanta.
But with the delay, “one can argue that the response globally has continued to suffer from a lack of coordination with individual countries working at very different paces to address the problem.”
“There is almost capitulation that we cannot stop the monkeypox virus from establishing itself in a more permanent way,” she added.
Dr. James Lawler, co-director of the University of Nebraska’s Global Center for Health Security, estimated that it might take a year or more to control the outbreak. By then, the virus is likely to have infected hundreds of thousands of people and may have permanently entrenched itself in some countries.
“We’ve now unfortunately really missed the boat on being able to put a lid on the outbreak earlier,” Dr. Lawler said. “Now it’s going to be a real struggle to be able to contain and control spread.”
The longer the outbreak goes on, the greater the chances are of the virus moving from infected people to animal populations, where it could persist and sporadically trigger new infections in people. This is one way that a disease can become endemic in a region.
[...]
The W.H.O. advisers said at the end of June that they did not recommend an emergency declaration in part because the disease had not moved out of the primary risk group, men who have sex with men, to affect pregnant women, children or older adults, who are at greater risk of severe illness if they are infected.
I'd like to remind y'all that because one of the primary externally visible presentations of AIDS is Karposi's Sarcoma, skin blemishes, MSM folks tend to be more observant of lesions and more likely to take them to the doctor; also, apparently the first outbreak stemmed from a gay rave in Europe. There's a reasonable likelihood that there is spread outside of the MSM group that is going undetected, so when you get an opportunity for a vaccine, you probably want to take it.
Post by: Sirus on July 23, 2022, 04:08:33 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 23, 2022, 04:13:48 pm
Post by: Sirus on July 23, 2022, 04:16:12 pm
Post by: Frumple on July 23, 2022, 04:19:16 pm
Post by: Sirus on July 23, 2022, 04:25:32 pm
Still going to keep doing it, because I don't want to get myself or others sick, but life would be easier without.
Post by: Frumple on July 23, 2022, 05:27:47 pm
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 23, 2022, 07:30:15 pm
I think I've gotten used to mask wearing enough at this point, I actually kinda' like it. It's not too bad, especially with a nicer fitting one. Don't think I'd mind it just being standard practice when outside the house, going forward.
People treat me worse at work if I don't wear one. Not out of any health concerns, they just don't like how I look.
Post by: King Zultan on July 24, 2022, 06:44:07 am
Best of luck, KZ! I hear BA.4,5 are pretty bad...
Yes, they've apparently found that subsequent reinfections with COVID become worse and worse each time.Oh man none of these words are words I wanted to hear, at least me and my people are starting to feel better.
Also since I don't keep up with covid news except what I get from this thread what are the 4 and 5 variants?
Post by: delphonso on July 24, 2022, 07:17:30 am
Post by: Starver on July 24, 2022, 09:35:42 am
But it seems that the Omicron.BAs are generally the current VOIs for at least the 'civilised' world, where they've become the defacto top-spreaders/vaccine-dodgers/"i-don't-care-what-you-caught-caught-before-you're-my-beaych-now"s, with their varying degrees of potential deadlinesses.
Post by: nenjin on July 24, 2022, 02:51:17 pm
And I'm kind of disappointed in a lot of family in how they behaved.
My aunt came over from Germany. A day or two before she left, the nurse that helps take care of her disabled husband notified her he'd tested positive.
So she gets on a plane and flies over here. They arrive Saturday. Hugs, dinner, blah blah blah. My mom spends the night with her in a hotel.
The next day she lets us know that she'd been exposed.
Fast forward to Tuesday night, the night of the party. 30 or so people, out doors, hugs, etc....
After the party we notice she doesn't seem to be doing so hot. Phlemgy, kind of hoarse sounding, low energy that can't be explained by jet lag anymore.
She tests positive the next day.
From there it's just a series of positives after that.
Her daughter and granddaughter test positive the same day as well. Then my mother. (They were all staying in the same house.)
My grandmother tests positive Thursday, as does another 90 year old family member. I have no idea how many of the other 20 people tested positive, although we did let everyone know.
Meanwhile, the covid positive folks are coming down to the beach to hang out right next to us. My aunt was good enough to wear a mask but would my cousin? No, she doesn't even bother with it for herself or her three year old. Just plops down right next to us, swims in the water next to us. And apparently my cousin doesn't have the sense or good graces to have yet taught her kid to COVER HER FUCKING MOUTH WHEN SHE COUGHS. This kid is straight up open coughing in people's faces, even after we asked her to cover her mouth, and her mom just looks off in the distance while we're saying this. Doesn't reinforce it at all. That shit would be unacceptable even before Covid.
I test positive on Friday, as does my brother's wife.
Meanwhile, except for my mom and my brother's wife and I, no one else is interested in getting tested to find out. "We're just going to assume we all have it." And yet they don't really want to do anything about it. My brother in particular is very belligerent about testing himself. Which, ok, fine, you don't want to take the test to prove it fine. But then he starts saying shit like "We should go to Dairy Queen." My cousin really wants to take her daughter to Dairy Queen too. Unmasked. They want to go run around, covid positive, without masking and without testing.
Like, WTF guys. Ok, so Covid isn't a big deal for you. But that doesn't justify acting like you don't have it it.
My grandmother seems to be ok, but the other elder that got it posted a temp of 105 that they had to put him on anti-virals for. He's doing better now as I understand it, but only because of an expensive hospital visit, vaccines and anti-virals.
Even my dad, who has had it before and is quite responsible, didn't want to take a test and while he wasn't advocating for running around and doing stuff, he still didn't really seem to consider it that big of a deal.
Just really disappointed in everyone pretty much. Almost all of our cases are mild with the exception of my elder uncle. That's not really the point though. The point is pretty much everyone said "who fucking cares" and proceeded to act like nothing had changed. I most likely got it from my brother who spent many hours in their house unmasked doing stuff. I made it a point to avoid contact with them once they were positive, but since my brother didn't bother and he was staying in our house.....
It's a crock of bullshit. Basically, I think most people don't want to think about the personal responsibility of getting others sick. Their take was "well we all are going to have it anyways" like they immediately gave up on any measures to prevent spreading it AND didn't want to test to prove it.
It's shit like this why we're going to be dealing with Covid probably for the next decade, and it will just keep coming back every year.
Like, boohoo, our family vacation might have gotten derailed by Covid. That's the price you pay for not being vigilant or responsible. I don't want to blame my aunt for this, but frankly their attitude about how to respond to Covid kinda reinforces my desire to blame them. Particularly my cousin who seemed to put her daughter's happiness literally above any other concerns.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 24, 2022, 03:26:53 pm
Post by: heydude6 on July 24, 2022, 03:28:12 pm
It's families like yours that give governments a justification to clamp down on our freedoms.
It's why I'm not a libertarian. Freedom only makes sense if you are willing to take responsibility. People without the latter have no right to the former in my opinion.
Post by: Starver on July 24, 2022, 03:54:32 pm
This, I imagine, is all meant to appeal to the kind of people (0.3%ish of the population) who seemingly will choose which of the two options gets to be PM. I don't think the other party of choice (or, as it were, choice of the party) has a contrary viewpoint.
Post by: Starver on July 25, 2022, 07:57:02 am
Normally, they say, it just wouldn't combine so badly, but the extra layer of cotton-wool (which probably saved many other lives, let us not forget) caused a bit of a perfect storm for introduction into unusually naive hosts once the vectors started vectorising again.
It sounds like this could be useful information, for future preventative efforts, but the details are probably still to be bashed out so I don't see attempted prophylative (active-?)cold-vaccines being given to lockdown babies, any time soon.
Post by: hector13 on July 26, 2022, 02:03:31 pm
Post by: TD1 on July 26, 2022, 02:31:58 pm
Ie, they could have deliberately released the virus in a market.
I'm playing devil's advocate, obviously. But that's probably gonna be a counterclaim.
Post by: hector13 on July 26, 2022, 02:39:12 pm
Not that things like logic will placate these people.
Post by: nenjin on July 26, 2022, 02:42:29 pm
I really wish I could go back in time and figure out if I actually had it or not. The only thing that makes me think it was something else is that I didn't infect either of the two people that were close to me in the ~month period where I was completely messed up. But pretty much all the other symptoms track.
Post by: hector13 on July 26, 2022, 02:47:57 pm
Post by: TD1 on July 26, 2022, 02:48:19 pm
It's a bit like arguing religion, really.
The only limit to your opponent's ability to outfox you is their imagination.
The timelines seem a little weird to me. Only because I really think I had Covid in December 2019 before it made the news. That means it would have made it from Wuhan to the center of the US in ~2 months.I've heard a lot of people say something similar. My parents, in fact, had covid-symptoms before it should have been here. As for the infecting others... covid's an odd one.
I really wish I could go back in time and figure out if I actually had it or not. The only thing that makes me think it was something else is that I didn't infect either of the two people that were close to me in the ~month period where I was completely messed up. But pretty much all the other symptoms track.
My sister-in-law acted on her symptoms ridiculously late. She was coughing and spluttering around us for days, and had trouble breathing. I spent a day in the car with her. She hugged my parents.
The only person who got it was my brother. And he had to be sleeping next to her.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 26, 2022, 03:19:48 pm
Post by: Vector on July 26, 2022, 03:39:42 pm
No lockdowns didn't mean no or little disease, it just meant that the disease wasn't in danger of collapsing the medical system at that time. There had to have been community spread. It shouldn't surprise anyone who lived fairly near an international airport that they would have been exposed, on the early side.
Post by: Frumple on July 26, 2022, 04:45:53 pm
Coronaviruses seem to have similar symptoms across the board, from my very limited knowledge. I’m pretty sure the common cold and ‘flu are coronaviruses.the common cold is like a dozen different things (and by a dozen different things I mean there's over 200 identified viral strains attributed to causing it, from a quick wiki check), among which are coronaviruses, yes. The other major virus families involved are rhino-, adeno-, and entero-.
Flu -- influenza -- is specifically a different family of virus, though. No orthocoronavirinae involved. So you're half right, I guess?
Post by: scriver on July 27, 2022, 11:38:07 am
There's also the possibility that it was a lab accident with a strain that could not infect people, but could infection animals, and that it somehow got spread to the animals at the market, and then it mutated to being able to infest people. Ut hey, occam's razor to the what if moustache and all that.
Then lastly it's also the issue of "confirmed cases" seeming like a very easy way to get selection bias (is that the term?) about when it started. How would you prove that it hadn't already been in circulation among a small amount of people before it spread through the market, especially when corona viruses manifest so much like each other and the new strains very likely would have been written off as just some bad vold or standard influenza before it started to become clear that it was a new disease/strain?
I'm not playing devils advocate here but I'm not some hard believer in a lab origin conspiracy either, these are just my spontaneous thoughts about the article.
Post by: heydude6 on July 27, 2022, 01:02:45 pm
With the above in mind, I'm surprised an article like this even exists so soon, but having read the content of it, I think I understand why. When it comes to pandemic origin research, scientists don't just want to know where people first started getting infected since that's relatively easy, but where the virus itself came from. If the virus entered the market through an imported animal, scientists want to know from which region of China that animal came from, ideally the name of the town where that animal was first captured. If the virus entered the market through a lab leak, then scientists want to know from where that lab had collected the sample.
Generally, this is done by going out into the wild and comparing the genomes of the coronaviruses present in those animals with the one of our strain of interest. If we find a sufficiently similar match then we have our answer. As you can imagine, this takes a lot of time. Especially since China is so vast.
This article isn't interested in that though, all it wants to do is to shut down the lab leak conspiracy theory. Calling it pandemic origin research is an insult that hides the fact that China killed off any possibility of real pandemic origin research being done.
Post by: Starver on July 27, 2022, 02:52:10 pm
And that area relates to where a particular subset of animals (and suspected animal-sources) were caged, which does give a "camping out" effect where an ill animal that nobody noticed/cared about infected neighbouring animals and surfaces and the generally miasmic air around them all.
Yes, a deliberate infective event could emulate this (dab a little here, dab a little there, move around, mix it up a bit, get out of there) but the presence of two distinct strains seems to work against this theory. You'd suspect either a single chosen strain that you're happy to inflict upon the public, or else a whole mix of possible candidates, letting real world conditions do the final bit of selection after you found a general group of mutated strains that did what you wanted to do but hadn't yet had the ability to properly assess any in vivo (human) trials.
That two distinct strains were seen looks more like two slightly separated animal populations had developed their own subtypes from an original strain and at least one mutation away from it, then the captured creatures from both subpopulations had been both shipped into this market, at least one ill creature from each locality, and then the 'lucky' crossover happened from one or both to create the infective-beachhead from which the fully human-compatible result then emerged.
There are other arguments, and certainly the initial denial/exclusion/lockdown of studying the outbreak did not help, but my reading is that the imperfect information this particular analysis had to work with is far more compatible with the accidental animal-vector theory than any practical anthropogenic version that could be realistic. They're not impossible, but would have to be very contrived (deliberately or otherwise) to give this particular fingerprint/footprint remnant.
Post by: None on July 29, 2022, 01:50:13 pm
Post by: scriver on July 29, 2022, 02:37:08 pm
Here's to you having a lighter reaction this time around None. I assume the other two were bad.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 29, 2022, 02:37:15 pm
I'm getting a Pfizer booster today to complete the trifecta! It's been nine months since my last booster and I've got some important dates coming up soon here. With no word on when newer coverage on the omicron variants comes around, I figured I'd best at least be fresh up. Gonna be a miserable weekend, though...There is word. They are coming in September. The US has paid 1.7bn USD to Moderna alone. Europe has its own deals likewise.
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/moderna-FDA-covid-boosters-deal-pfizer/628463/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Issue:%202022-07-29%20BioPharma%20Dive%20%5Bissue:43466%5D&utm_term=BioPharma%20Dive
There are a few other updated boosters pending approval like HIPRA's
Post by: None on July 29, 2022, 02:42:27 pm
Yeah, I'm hoping it's lighter too- both JnJ and Moderna left me pretty good and wrecked for a day and a half. Wanted to make sure I have the weekend to recuperate, given that I didn't want to go straight from recovering from the vaccine to recuperating from wisdom teeth removal- I'm already burning sick days for that, ahaha. Maybe I'll go buy me some extra treats to weather the weekend with.
edit: haha yes never mind Epic says I don't get one since I've completed the sequence
see you in september
Post by: Rolan7 on August 12, 2022, 11:57:03 am
My dad wants me to go get Paxlovid. I've heard nothing but good things, but it seems almost wasteful at this point. I don't know. I don't need it for my remaining symptoms, and I don't feel anything *close* to the brain fog I experienced early in the pandemic. I'd rather just keep drinking tea and soup.
Edit: What really worries me is that I must have picked this up (even if it's just a cold) from a damn family reunion on Saturday. There were a lot of vulnerable people there. I've passed word along just in case, but I'm testing myself a fourth time tomorrow in case this was a false positive.
Edit2:
Dad: I checked with my pharmacist and you'll have to go to an ER and lie a little to get Paxlovid, but you really should! I'll pay whatever! Even if you stash it for later it's a good idea
Mom, a nurse: Oh this variant isn't even killing people like it used to, the CDC says things everything's back to normal. Let's chat for a bit and no I don't have a mask
Me: I don't know crap but both those positions seem extreme
Nice them to each bring me a care package though... glad they didn't quite intercept each other
I could use a beer right now. Specifically, I wish I wasn't sick so I could reasonably drink some of my beer.
Post by: TD1 on August 12, 2022, 04:14:31 pm
No Rolan
Don't get a bear
You have so much to live for.
....
Unless it's a Teddy Bear in which case yes get one or five of those.
Post by: Frumple on August 12, 2022, 04:19:35 pm
Post by: Rolan7 on August 12, 2022, 04:53:39 pm
In the meantime I have all the tea I care to brew, both herbal and black, and that's helping a lot~
Post by: heydude6 on August 12, 2022, 05:07:25 pm
And conferred with my SO, and figured out these newfangled hookup "apps"
I don't think your SO is supposed to be around hookup apps.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 12, 2022, 05:21:57 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on August 12, 2022, 06:24:29 pm
And conferred with my SO, and figured out these newfangled hookup "apps"
I don't think your SO is supposed to be around hookup apps.
I actually know of a few couples in my area who use hookup apps, both together and separately. For some it's a kink, for others just a sort of matter of fact thing.
@Rolan have you been using any simple remedies, cough lozenges, cold & flu pills and such? My COVID was on the mild side, but I was finding that the congestion and cough I developed in the later period was helped by the basic stuff. I absolutely reeked of menthol for a few days, but it was helping me sleep.
Post by: Rolan7 on August 12, 2022, 07:15:28 pm
I also have a nice hot potato-chicken stew that... just finished pressure cooking! Starting each morning with some hot soup (particularly inhaling the vapor) has been relieving my throat pain a great deal.
Post by: Frumple on August 15, 2022, 04:20:48 pm
Post by: Vector on August 16, 2022, 01:10:15 pm
Motherfucker son o f a b i t c h !! She owns three houses! She's not poor!
Post by: dragdeler on August 16, 2022, 01:36:36 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 16, 2022, 01:51:29 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 16, 2022, 01:52:39 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 16, 2022, 01:58:40 pm
Post by: TamerVirus on August 16, 2022, 02:24:15 pm
It also requires getting into infection range :o
Not if you carry a cane.
The strategy here is to emulate a Retiarius gladiator: ensnare the target using a disposable mask net before moving in for the kill using the cane
Post by: Sirus on August 16, 2022, 02:45:48 pm
Pikes. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pike_(weapon)) Allows one to quite literally go medieval on plague bearers without getting within coughing range!
Post by: JoshuaFH on August 16, 2022, 02:57:26 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 16, 2022, 03:43:22 pm
Post by: nenjin on August 16, 2022, 03:44:07 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 17, 2022, 03:43:04 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 17, 2022, 04:54:49 am
You also need to put a frog in your pants to rebalance the humours.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 17, 2022, 01:24:59 pm
Wait, what were we trying to do again?
Post by: Starver on August 17, 2022, 03:05:20 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 18, 2022, 04:18:12 am
Post by: Vector on August 24, 2022, 09:21:43 pm
I can see we're gonna have a totally normal election year here in the US of A
Post by: heydude6 on August 24, 2022, 11:20:10 pm
Abuses of power erode trust in power. Impartiality is vital for a stable society.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 11:35:26 pm
Asshole close to Kari Lake: "We need to quarantine and isolate all the folks of the LGBT community. We need to find all of them. We need to hunt them down and put them into isolation camps for their own protection. (https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2022/08/gop-operative-wants-lgbtq-community-put-isolation-camps-protection/)"
I can see we're gonna have a totally normal election year here in the US of A
That is concerning. The question becomes how the candidate responds (if at all) to their supporter's statements.
Also: It's Arizona. The A is for Asshole State.
A (https://www.aclu.org/other/frequently-asked-questions-about-arizona-racial-profiling-law)
For (https://www.ncsl.org/research/immigration/analysis-of-arizonas-immigration-law.aspx)
Assholes (https://www.hrc.org/press-releases/breaking-arizona-house-passes-anti-transgender-sports-and-medical-care-bans)
Post by: hector13 on August 24, 2022, 11:40:31 pm
Unfortunate, considering he appears to be quite bananas.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 11:43:07 pm
She has apparently so far refused to condemn him.I would be surprised if she did.
Unfortunate, considering he appears to be quite bananas.
Basically, if she does not outright embrace and support the ass, it's the best possible outcome.
Post by: Vector on August 25, 2022, 12:19:08 am
Wouldn't be the first time the government did something like that to minorities. Is it any wonder then that people were afraid the government doing that to them during Covid?
I'm not afraid of "going to a camp..." I'm afraid of "going to a camp for being gay" which is a different matter.
Being concerned about the possibility of being refused medical treatment for vaccination status was reasonable. However, the queer community had already "been there, done that." That measure has already been left behind some time ago.
Worrying performatively about camps when none of the other shit has happened to your particular group yet and you're not worried about the immigrants ALREADY in camps doesn't make me feel very sympathetic. There's a lot of other stuff that has to happen first to create this kind of empathy gap, where you end up in a camp...
Post by: heydude6 on August 25, 2022, 12:35:08 pm
It's just frustrating to see from your link that people didn't learn that lesson after the disastrous failure of the pandemic response.
EDIT: My previous comment was mainly drawing upon the Philosophy tube video about the topic (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va0RCgbywGc), in which she points out that the government has a history of using healthcare to abuse minorities. I also know a guy who opposed vaccine mandates due to the Tuskegee Syphilis Study (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuskegee_Syphilis_Study), where the government deliberately infected black people with Syphillis and refused to treat them. The guy said that because of shit like this, the ability to refuse healthcare should be a human right.
Post by: Frumple on August 25, 2022, 04:37:09 pm
Like, if you want to refuse to take the 'rona vaccine, sure, but you don't get to come inside the city limits anymore and hospitals/other areas with at-risk populations (i.e. anywhere public at a minimum, probably) can also refuse to deal with you due to the risk you pose to other people, that kind of deal. It's your choice right up until you start wanting to make that choice for other people, too.
That kind of thing's definitely abusable, but, y'know. 6.5+ million dead and counting. At some point it's worth the risk of abuse, and it's probably well before a seven digit body count :-\
Post by: McTraveller on September 02, 2022, 01:06:25 pm
Post by: King Zultan on September 03, 2022, 01:18:37 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2022, 04:27:19 pm
Does that mean we're about to hit plague number three?If you monitor this map often it has a calming effect (https://rsoe-edis.org/eventMap); you begin to realise how common pandemics are and that most are controlled enough
Post by: King Zultan on September 09, 2022, 04:10:52 am
Post by: None on September 09, 2022, 09:47:00 am
So I've probably got covid.
Alas and alack, I'm glad I wore my mask while at the laundromat yesterday. It's too bad with how close we are to having omicron boosters available. So far, no loss of smell or breathing problems, so I think our organ meats will be okay. Still means we won't be able to see anyone for a week, or go on that boat cruise, or visit the favorite bar. There's no point isolating within the apartment, so I'm just assuming I'm hosed too- who knows, maybe I brought it into the house.
Best as we're aware, it's our first times though, so that's a pretty good score, all said.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 10, 2022, 04:38:55 am
Post by: Vector on September 12, 2022, 06:01:38 pm
I have my sense of smell back and I feel much healthier now.
Post by: Great Order on September 12, 2022, 09:01:04 pm
Post by: Vector on September 13, 2022, 12:32:12 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 13, 2022, 05:35:29 am
Post by: Vector on September 13, 2022, 11:42:01 am
Definitely, definitely just let yourself get knocked down and stay down if you get it. And I will reiterate for those who haven't had it that you don't want it and you don't want to spread it. Mask, test, and if you are planning things to take advantage of a friend visiting a convention not far from your area, do this visit first and THEN the convention.
Post by: None on September 13, 2022, 12:04:57 pm
Roommate had one day worth of fever and fatigue, now he just has a persistent mucousy cough. Still don't know if I have/had it asymptomatically. Roommate shelled out the twenty bucks for a two-pack of covid tests, so we'll probably swazzle our schnozzles tomorrow to get a read on where we're at. Not sure if he's 'well' or okay to return to his job if he's still coughing it up, though.
Did you know take-home covid tests are like two bucks a pop in Germany? They pay a fifth or sixth of what we do. ~this nation is a scam~
Post by: None on September 14, 2022, 05:40:02 pm
Take home Covid tests says my roommate is still positive and I am still negative.
I know we're kind of in the best case scenario right now for covid (all he has is a persistent mucousy cough), but it doesn't feel quite as acceptable to write off the days turned weeks of isolation. Got a bit of the sads today as a consequence, but that might also have something to do with me forgetting to eat a few concurrent meals.
It does mean my weekend camping vacation plan is binned now (don't want to come down with it hours from home) and I'm running out of time/weather to do that. Ach. Today it's work, this week it's covid, this month it's the project release, and then it's winter, and I'm just biding my time for the next thing to brace for.
Post by: Starver on September 16, 2022, 03:08:17 pm
(n.b. - does not actually cure/prevent Covid...)
Post by: EuchreJack on September 16, 2022, 03:17:29 pm
DIY no-injection mRNA booster (https://xkcd.com/2673)
(n.b. - does not actually cure/prevent Covid...)
Arguably, that simulates most modern vaccines.
There is a reason they ask if you have any egg allergies...
Post by: King Zultan on September 17, 2022, 03:14:46 am
Post by: Vector on September 17, 2022, 03:30:14 pm
Post by: Max™ on September 19, 2022, 03:04:55 pm
MY MASK PROTECTS YOU
YOUR MASK PROTECTS ME
DON'T BE A CUNT
Also fuck everyone infinitely for even suggesting this shit is "just like the flu" this shit HURTS enough to disprove any nonsense about a loving skyparent.
Post by: Vector on September 19, 2022, 07:41:09 pm
Post by: Max™ on September 20, 2022, 12:42:59 am
"HE DID NOT GIVE YOU COVID" 'Oh, ok, then you did.' "Now, you could get it just by... uh, sticking your head out the door."
SPOILER ALERT: I DO NOT LEAVE THE HOUSE, MISSUS DOESN'T EVEN COME IN CONTACT WITH THEM, AND SHE TOLD US HER DUMBFUCK HAD COVID A WEEK AGO "but it's ok because he's staying in his room and wearing a mask" except sure enough once he stopped feeling symptoms he went right back to maskless bullshitting around the house.
And they wonder why I absolutely refuse to let their stupid asses come upstairs, smoking racist boomer plaguerats ARE NOT WELCOME AND WILL BE SENT BACK DOWNSTAIRS RAPIDLY!
Post by: delphonso on September 21, 2022, 07:55:41 am
1. Avoid skin-to-skin contact with foreigners.
2. Avoid skin-to-skin contact with anyone who has been abroad in the last three weeks.
There were a few more of actually reasonable advice, but the foreign community in my city has been cracking up about our supposed ability to /spontaneously generate/ the virus.
Post by: Max™ on September 22, 2022, 12:09:37 am
Like I knew from early 2020 I didn't want it, I was telling everyone I could not to get it, and holy fuck it is exactly as unpleasant as I expected.
Also: ricola cherry and honey cough drops are amazing, they taste kinda like that syrup in the middle of a piece of bubble yum bubble gum I think?
Makes me want like a blow pop with the ricola shell and like flinstones chewable vitamins or maybe just weed gummies in the middle.
Post by: heydude6 on September 22, 2022, 08:13:25 am
It genuinely is a terrifying to know that I have a virus that's killed so many people. The thought of long Covid too.
Post by: Frumple on September 22, 2022, 12:45:08 pm
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2022, 02:11:31 pm
Not bringing in your particular (sub)variant to the rest of the queue waiting for a booster is probably the biggest concern. You don't know that everybody else is a capable of dealing with both the pulled-punch and the uppercut like you must, and so standard "if you suspect you've got it, try to isolate yourself to protect others" should apply, notwithstanding the practical and nontrivial purpose of the visit.
Depending upon which booster, it might even confer a prophylactic effect (again, be guided by professional advice) to mitigate the infection-in-progress, but no point coughing over everyone who is trying to help you without them being forewarned, or at least reasonably rearrange any scheduled attendance to a week or two down the line.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 22, 2022, 02:49:16 pm
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2022, 03:04:17 pm
Post by: Vector on September 22, 2022, 03:19:05 pm
Post by: heydude6 on September 22, 2022, 03:50:58 pm
I think that even if I did go for the booster, they would kick me out in some sort of screening process, but who knows? Bureaucracy in my experience tends to be very unimaginative.
Post by: Ziusudra on September 22, 2022, 08:47:27 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 23, 2022, 12:42:30 pm
Supposedly we should wait 90 days after COVID infection for the booster. Does that fit with what you know, Poo?Its what I have read as well.
Like with many things with covid there's a degree of uncertainity with these recommendations. I think its based on how long antibody levels last after an infection, and how the immune system responds to stimuli. Also prior practical evidence on better responses spacing the shots
(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/chp%3A10.1007%2F978-3-030-19922-7_1/MediaObjects/434815_1_En_1_Fig7_HTML.png)
Simplifying a lot, "boosting" when the immune system is already mounting an active response is suboptimal, at least in theory.
As a caveat I'd like to add that in day to day we do suboptimal things that are still better than doing nothing. Ie: we know folks on active chemo mount poor vaccine responses but we vaccinated all of them because they are also much more vulnerable to covid so a poor response is better than sending them out with no vaccinations at all.
So TLDR version: the recommendation//policy is largely that (3-4 months), its not baseless (intended to achieve better responses), but I dont think getting it ahead of schedule is going to kill you or anything like that.
Post by: Dunamisdeos on September 23, 2022, 07:44:11 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 23, 2022, 08:22:19 pm
Post by: scriver on September 24, 2022, 07:41:46 am
Got my little guy immunized for Covid today (Hooray). Will advise if he turns into a gecko or some shit.
Isn't he in the "climb everything" stage of development, or roundabouts there? You might not notice the difference ;)
Post by: King Zultan on September 25, 2022, 03:32:28 am
Post by: Starver on September 25, 2022, 06:29:37 am
Post by: Lidku on September 25, 2022, 06:48:05 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 25, 2022, 06:49:29 am
Post by: Lidku on September 25, 2022, 06:54:41 am
Post by: TamerVirus on September 25, 2022, 08:19:05 am
So is the pandemic over?Biden says so!
Post by: None on September 25, 2022, 09:13:58 am
US Postal Service called it quits on their 'free covid test program' at the start of this month and that seems problematic with how prevalent covid seems to be especially right now. Capitalism will figure it out, the way it always does with public health and safety matters (read: it won't). I've got seven tests stashed away until I'm shelling out ten bucks a pop again; I wince knowing my roommate blasted most of a day's wage to stay informed on his infection and do the right thing by other people.
My household is 100% covid free now, somehow I managed to dodge the virus despite my roommate having it. He mentions lingering tiredness, but he's also mentioned being super tired just because of work very frequently. I didn't go positive once.
I'm scheduled to get the Omicron booster on Friday. It's coming up on a year since my last one, so I'm keen to reinforce what seems to have been serendipity with my roommate's case.
Post by: heydude6 on September 26, 2022, 03:37:18 pm
Anyway, the question I ask now is whether my swift return is backed by recent developments in the science or is it just a politically motivated "Make quarantines as short as possible, damned be the public" kind of thing?
Post by: Max™ on September 26, 2022, 06:51:10 pm
Post by: Starver on September 26, 2022, 06:59:36 pm
Their response could just be part of that being "it's just a cold", now, in many eyes. But even "just a cold" isn't an excuse that society should really accept. There's a lot of middleground between ultra-healthconsciousness (https://xkcd.com/2448/) and blasé (https://xkcd.com/2535/), and I think we've swung further towards the latter than I'm personally comfortable with, even a couple of years on... And nowhere near making "just a cold" a legitmate victim of the collateral damage (https://xkcd.com/2287/) too. So I'd be mystified, if it weren't for knowing how interest in such things wane.
(For your part, I leave it to you, but I'd certainl expect healthcare staff to still want to err to caution, without any other influences upon their advice. Effective false-positives being more permissable, and recoverable from, than letting false-negatives ruin all the hard work done for much of the time...)
Post by: Vector on December 14, 2022, 10:46:32 pm
What about you all? Have you been thinking about risk mitigation plans?
Post by: heydude6 on December 14, 2022, 11:13:05 pm
At least I'm thoroughly vaccinated now.
Post by: King Zultan on December 15, 2022, 03:29:57 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 15, 2022, 05:27:24 am
Post by: TamerVirus on December 15, 2022, 09:30:19 am
Post by: Lidku on December 15, 2022, 11:52:58 am
Post by: alway on December 15, 2022, 12:11:49 pm
Meanwhile over here, it seems likes we're seeing the natural results of letting covid go unchecked: another covid wave, on top of very bad flu and RSV surges. Weird how we've got all 3 right? Til you remember part of covid's effects include wiping out parts of your immune system's memory. Suddenly, the entire population is immunocompromised to some degree or another.
To manage this, our polycule has switched entirely to remote work, with those who can supporting those who can't. Avoiding all unnecessary indoor spaces around other people, and N95s any time we're around other people, indoors or out. No big gatherings or events, indoors or out. My household has been, and with any luck will continue to remain, covid free through the entire pandemic. We don't see a viable alternative, given how many others in and out of the polycule have been severely impacted by long covid. If we lived in a communist system, where our needs would be guaranteed to be met regardless, sure, maybe we could gamble with our lives. But as is, long covid chronic fatigue preventing us from working, as it has several people I know, is utterly non-viable in an economic system that will kill you if you can't work.
Post by: delphonso on December 15, 2022, 12:41:30 pm
So what's going on in China?
All restrictions immediately lifted. No preparations were made.
Everyone's got covid in probably the world's biggest wave. Me, my wife, and presumably our kid, all have it and most friends I know have picked it up in the last few days. My boss, my coworker, my daughter's teacher, heck the lady next door has it.
I'm praying it remains not severe for everyone I know because hospitals have no ability to help you at this point. I'm very worried that very many people are going to die.
N95 masks and at-home tests have all been bought out by scalpers and are absurdly priced. The official tests are so fucked now they don't send you a result if you are positive (and test ten people at a time, so are just not sending results at all, because one of you certainly has it.)
Post by: IndigoFenix on December 15, 2022, 01:16:22 pm
Post by: McTraveller on December 15, 2022, 02:50:51 pm
(I have, though, had the original 2-course Pfizer, plus a single booster - but that boost was over 6 months ago.)
Post by: hector13 on December 15, 2022, 02:54:46 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on December 15, 2022, 05:02:57 pm
All restrictions immediately lifted. No preparations were made.
Everyone's got covid in probably the world's biggest wave. Me, my wife, and presumably our kid, all have it and most friends I know have picked it up in the last few days. My boss, my coworker, my daughter's teacher, heck the lady next door has it.
I'm praying it remains not severe for everyone I know because hospitals have no ability to help you at this point. I'm very worried that very many people are going to die.
N95 masks and at-home tests have all been bought out by scalpers and are absurdly priced. The official tests are so fucked now they don't send you a result if you are positive (and test ten people at a time, so are just not sending results at all, because one of you certainly has it.)
Huh, I would have expected China to keep being strict about keeping a lid on things. Wonder what tipped them over to just opening up completely and getting an infection surge.
Regardless, good luck to you and yours with regards to coming out of it healthy.
Post by: hector13 on December 15, 2022, 05:05:37 pm
I’m not sure if authorities are getting rid of it as a “fine, see what happens when we don’t look after you” thing or if they’re genuinely concerned over stability, but there you go.
Post by: delphonso on December 15, 2022, 08:36:28 pm
Realistically, most people don't know about the protests because the media has been aggressively censored around it. On top of that, the state media is spreading the whole 'it's just a cold!' thing around, which suggests they're really just trying to forget about it and move on.
Post by: scriver on December 16, 2022, 02:47:46 am
Post by: IndigoFenix on December 17, 2022, 03:33:40 pm
I have no idea WHY this is the case - I've heard some say that it's because the older generation tends to be more suspicious of the government because of the country's history, and other opinions that the government pushed the working-class first to prevent lost work due to getting sick - but the RESULTS are straightforward. Because the most vulnerable people are also the least protected, China has a lot less leeway when it comes to letting the virus spread through the population - a much higher percentage will get seriously ill, so it takes a smaller number of people getting infected at once to strain the health system.
Post by: Starver on December 17, 2022, 06:00:02 pm
I'm not saying that it's a deliberate demographic readjustment, but I bet it looks awfully handy in some quarters (as well as handilly awful in others) to have the elderly die off rather quickly.
(...or so someone who was cynical might think.)
Post by: Eric Blank on December 17, 2022, 07:13:14 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on December 17, 2022, 07:57:53 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 17, 2022, 08:14:57 pm
Not that any of that would stop them. Being shady doesn’t innoculate you from being stupid.
Post by: WealthyRadish on December 17, 2022, 09:18:35 pm
Post by: hector13 on December 17, 2022, 09:58:53 pm
Unfortunately the biggest buffoon I worked with said they would rather be fired than wear a mask, but capitulated anyway. Would’ve been nice to see the back of them.
Post by: delphonso on December 18, 2022, 01:34:08 am
The big issue with China is that the older population is significantly LESS likely to be vaccinated than the younger population. This is the opposite of vaccination rates in pretty much every other country, where the older one is, the more likely they are to be vaccinated.
I have no idea WHY this is the case - I've heard some say that it's because the older generation tends to be more suspicious of the government because of the country's history, and other opinions that the government pushed the working-class first to prevent lost work due to getting sick - but the RESULTS are straightforward. Because the most vulnerable people are also the least protected, China has a lot less leeway when it comes to letting the virus spread through the population - a much higher percentage will get seriously ill, so it takes a smaller number of people getting infected at once to strain the health system.
Everything in China has a lot of bureaucracy involved. For vaccines, it's huge lines and only at certain locations. Older folks usually speak dialect even if they live in the city and not the villages. It's just a lot of obstacles that are harder for older people to overcome. Plus vaccines were 'for workers' so most of them just didn't bother.
I'm not sure if they're actually less vaccinated, but I do know that a fourth shot is now available for old people and immunocompromised. Probably too little too late as the peak of the wave is hitting every city right now.
I now have symptoms, luckily my wife is recovered, so she can take care of baby while I lay on the sofa all day.
Post by: Duuvian on December 18, 2022, 03:08:13 am
Post by: Rolan7 on December 23, 2022, 07:02:18 pm
OH GODS DAMMIT NOT AGAIN *fingers crossed*
(There are other possibilities, and last time was real mild (possibly due to vax), but I'm annoyed/worried. oh well, good excuse not to drive two hours on Christmas Day for even more visitation)
Post by: Duuvian on December 24, 2022, 08:49:31 am
(picked the most colorful state as the map only shows if you select an area; it also tracks the selected location between visits, I'm assuming by IP address)
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=New+Jersey&data-type=CommunityLevels&list_select_county=34027
Post by: Ziusudra on February 17, 2023, 06:57:05 pm
Quote
Combine the sea-lion infections with the revelation that H5N1 flu invaded a mink farm in Spain in October, and health authorities must now confront the possibility that the unpredictable virus may have adapted to threaten other species.
To be clear, this does not yet include people. Although past decades have witnessed bird flu outbreaks that spread to humans, only two cases have been identified in the past 12 months: a Colorado adult last May, and a 9-year-old girl in Ecuador in January. (Neither died.) And there’s no evidence yet that the virus has been able to jump from newly infected mammals to people. But the fact that it was transmitted from birds to mammals, and then spread among them, indicates a disquieting trend.
Post by: King Zultan on February 18, 2023, 01:41:42 am
Hope to god that this isn't the start of another damned pandemic.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 18, 2023, 01:44:57 am
Can it even be called bird flu anymore if it can infect all kinds of things.🤷♂️
Hope to god that this isn't the start of another damned pandemic.
Never stopped wearing the mask in the first place so I'll roll with it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uiea53t1L4).
Might avoid crowds again for a while just in case tho
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 19, 2023, 05:24:54 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 19, 2023, 05:29:13 pm
Put it altogether and you’ll get headlines everywhere along the lines of “Is This The Next Covid?”
Post by: Starver on February 19, 2023, 07:28:56 pm
The late-/post-WW1 influenza outbreak had exceptional 'networking' to help it, whilst the medical advances to deal with it (in all the ways described) were only a fraction of what we'd have today. So it spread, helped (in no small way) by mandated mass movements of men. But relatively few people globe-trotted, otherwise.
The rise in jet-setters in the modern age (leisure and business and everything in-between) then ramped up at te same time as we bacame profficient/lucky enough not to have quite so much a global pandemic threatening to break out at any one time. Until it did... And so lockdowns. (Which, at least on the international level, wasn't something that would have been needed in the days before regular air-mile usage by almost anyone who fancied having a stag-do in Prague or trying to climb Machu Picchu or going over to do a deal with the sweatshop owners in some random African/Asian country or going over to visit the in-laws in Australia or...)
And now (having Been There, Done That, Got The "I've Been Vaccinated" Sticker) there's a mix of over-caution and under-caution for what we all should know is out there and (moreover) what we don't yet know anything solid about. Everyone's probably not much more than half a dozen handshakes from much of the rest of the world's population, but as not everyone is licking their hands after doing so (or Eskimo-greeting each other) then it's probably not as bad as it could be, but not as safe as it might be. Say two-dozen (unlucky and unwise) handshakes between Patient Zero for WhateverComesNext-23, whether it be SARS-like, an influenza, an ebola, a far more agile monkeypox, whichsoever is the one fated to arise next.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 19, 2023, 10:29:18 pm
And to put on my tinfoil hat, I'd say governments have an incentive to accelerate the late-stage capitalism doomsday, that's in order to keep their populations sickly and weak: they know that the masses are getting fed up with their shit, and so for the ruling class to stay the ruling class, they better keep the subjugated class too sick, poor, stupid, and isolated to realistically overthrow them.
Post by: Stench Guzman on February 19, 2023, 10:59:58 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 20, 2023, 01:31:28 am
Post by: Bumber on February 20, 2023, 02:24:52 am
Post by: Starver on February 20, 2023, 06:22:54 am
(Really, as far as vaping is concerned, if some people aren't just wasting 99% of their 'liquid' (and making the rest of us 'passively vape') for the sake of turning their devices up way beyond what they need, I clearly don't understand these things.)
As far as mask effectiveness, you're going to have breath breathed by others unless you use closed-cycle rebreather tech, but even the most basic mask mitigates the bigger and more dangerous drops (or spittle, flem, etc) and increases the time that drifting pathogen has to spend airborne (and susceptible to degredation) to get between two people in most circumstances.
Also, rather puts paid to the "breathing too much CO2" scares, unless you made a plastic bag your go-to mask material...
edited for a coupla obvious tyops
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 20, 2023, 09:34:04 am
Which were notoriously not sensible during covid so yeah mask up just in case
Post by: Bumber on February 20, 2023, 02:17:29 pm
bigger and more dangerous drops
[Citation needed]
Post by: Starver on February 20, 2023, 03:52:37 pm
Depends on the situation.bigger and more dangerous drops
[Citation needed]
Large droplets survive longer, with payload, to settle on surfaces (including faces) for further contact transmission. Smaller ones evaporate (hence I had the smell, possibly some drifting nicotine... not sure... from the vaper) leaving carrier pathogens more vulnerable to denaturing in various anhydric ways.
Now, if smaller aerosols can get to the lungs, they can reach deeper down into them. But the larger ones have potential to infect through the nose and throat mucuses where viruses already are known to try to take hold. And (by mass, therefore volume) droplets tend to be predominantly of the upper scale. You're at least shifting the odds against the usually unfettered large amounts of infective material getting to you.
Post by: Ziusudra on February 23, 2023, 06:00:51 pm
The bird flu outbreak has taken an ominous turn (https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/02/the-bird-flu-outbreak-has-taken-an-ominous-turn/)QuoteTo be clear, this does not yet include people.
After death of girl yesterday, 12 more detected with H5N1 bird flu in Cambodia (https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501244375/after-death-of-girl-yesterday-12-more-detected-with-h5n1-bird-flu/)
Well, there's one.
Edit: the body of that seems to say that there are not yet results from the tests, so they be testing 12 while 4 show symptoms.
Edit: and sounds like they were all in contact with the birds, so even if more hav it, it might not be human-human transmission
Post by: alway on February 23, 2023, 09:23:42 pm
Have we breached some critical mass of populatiom above which every virus epidemic explodes? Why has the number of outbreaks increased so quickly?It's because of covid. One of its numerous effects is to suppress the immune system in the long term, particularly your body's ability to recognize diseases it has already encountered. So we got the tripledemic from that, as we see a wave of infections of several diseases simultaneously among the newly immunocompromised majority of the US population.
As for new things, it's also because of covid, in that covid breached the sense of normality and now you pay attention. Ebola, swine flu, bird flu, etc, have been other outbreaks in the past, but they probably didn't breach normal daily life where ever you live, so you neither paid attention nor cared to remember them at the time. Now, everyone has seen the safeguards fail and be further eroded, and no one trusts that it won't happen again. Because it probably will.
Post by: alway on February 23, 2023, 09:53:51 pm
The first is direct transmission: short range, effectively line of sight person to person transmission via large droplets that are too large to aerosolize. This is the primary mechanism of outdoor spread, and can largely be eliminated by mediocre masks worn correctly.
The second is aerosolized transmission: potentially longer range, sticking around in air for multiple hours. The key here is ventilation and volume: a proper ventilation system can slowly remove covid particles from an enclosed space, either through venting air or properly maintained HEPA filters. Likewise, larger places with good interior airflow and movement of people are better, as it prevents airborne covid particles from building up enough density anywhere enough to cause infection. Masks can help with this, but you're going to want a well fitted N95 mask. These can filter covid quite effectively, so long as the fit keeps the air moving through the mask instead of via holes around the sides. If worn properly an N95 will drop your odds of getting a covid infection to 25% of what it would otherwise be, and also reduce odds of you spreading it to others to 1/6 your original odds. Notably, if everyone in a room is wearing N95s properly, this means the odds of it spreading are about 4% of what they would otherwise be. Cloth masks are useless against this transmission vector, and basic disposable surgical masks are mediocre. This btw is why everyone kept getting covid after taking their 90% effective first covid vaccine and deciding it was okay to remove their 90% effective masks :P Gotta do both if you actually don't want covid.
As for surface transmission, a big deal was made about it early on before they knew a little of the basics about the spread of the virus and speculated it would be relevant. It was not. Despite searching the topic for years, I have yet to see a single source suggesting even a single case study of transmission occurring outside a (much higher risk) hospital situation which was determined to be caused by surface contamination.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 24, 2023, 04:09:34 am
Post by: MaximumZero on February 24, 2023, 08:33:42 am
Post by: None on February 24, 2023, 09:15:17 am
Probably after sharing a train with people for forty hours, since our primary engine, backup engine, and backup backup engine all failed in stupid fashion. Do Amish people still have vaccine hesitancy? There were a lot on the train...
Good thing I work remotely, but it's still going to be a pain in the ass to muddle through work today...
RE Swine Flu: Yeah, it sucked. I caught it and it sucked. 40% of my high school class caught it and were out sick for a week there. Would avoid in the future.
Post by: Bumber on February 27, 2023, 04:33:35 pm
Large droplets survive longer, with payload, to settle on surfaces (including faces) for further contact transmission.
COVID hasn't been shown to readily transmit from surfaces. (This article (https://sph.umich.edu/news/2022posts/at-um-risk-from-surface-contamination-of-covid-19-was-much-lower-than-air-transmission.html) claims risk 1000 times less than airborne.) The overwhelming majority of cases are from poorly ventilated places where airborne particles saturate to the point where you're constantly breathing them in. Large droplets can't do that, since they quickly fall to the floor.
Post by: Duuvian on March 01, 2023, 02:55:23 am
Post by: Vector on March 01, 2023, 09:44:49 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 01, 2023, 10:03:46 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 02, 2023, 05:06:05 am
Post by: scriver on March 02, 2023, 08:25:18 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 02, 2023, 09:48:49 am
Post by: scriver on March 02, 2023, 09:59:00 am
Post by: Frumple on March 02, 2023, 10:10:07 am
Are there any reuseable n95ers? I just did a glancing cost check and they seem to be sold in the price range of 10-30 Crowns per mask ($1-3) here, and 20 crowns per day isn't a negligible reoccurrent cost.Most of them I've noticed are noted as being reusable at least four or five times before it starts being a concern, iirc, especially if you let them air out for a day or two between uses.
You might want to be extra careful if you've been in a particularly high risk environment (i.e. inside a hospital or whatever), but for day to day use some reuse seems to be okay.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 02, 2023, 10:47:47 am
None of you seem to understand . The geese are not trapped out there with the bird flu. The bird flu is trapped out there with them.For real, the geese actually seem happier now a lot of the aggressive swans are dead
Post by: King Zultan on March 03, 2023, 05:13:35 am
Post by: None on March 03, 2023, 09:54:47 am
I'm very, very out of clean clothes, but, well, I only have to live with myself about it, hahaha.
I might try pushing it with a jog today to take a measure of the fatigue. Walked a couple blocks on day five and was KO'd by 8:30pm, so I really need to know what my reserves look like in the aftermath. I'm past 'being out of breath from sweeping the floor' thankfully.
Don't catch covid. It sucks. I miss leaving my apartment and I haven't seen my fellow barflies in weeks.
Post by: Vector on March 04, 2023, 08:20:04 pm
Sleeping for the first time at a new place today and hoping it will help even though it's an apartment complex like 500 feet from the railroad tracks. I have a doctor appointment on Monday morning to look into prescription migraine meds, too.
Post by: scriver on March 06, 2023, 10:22:53 pm
I by "excessive/abnormal mortality" I mean the mortality rate of those years compared to a baseline for respective country, I couldn't find a proper translation for that term
Post by: Starver on March 07, 2023, 04:50:17 am
And good for Sweden[1]. I've heard some various comparisons of Sweden with others, good and bad[2], and the law of mathematics suggests that (just as roughly half of all places are probably better than average) there are always at least two superlative datum points - and being the best is often better than being the worst. ;)
[1] One study can so often be flawed/focussing upon the wrong thing, of course, so naturally with all due caution of accepting a forum summary of a web-page (that I haven't tried to read, yet) promoting a single analysis of unknown depth... ;)
[2] e.g. wrt lockdowns/lack of. And I think there was also something on More Or Less (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00msxfl/episodes/player)[3] about how it was not basically Logan's Run in their carehomes, as other have said. (I'd have to search through and relisten myself, maybe it was another Scandiwegian country?) Anyway, lessons in avoiding cherry-picking.
[3] Don't know if/how those things are geofenced, so giving the World Service page's details (or translate to .com site?). Which I think are also short and snappy single-subject segments, where featured, rather than the whole half hour of the broadcast programme with multiple subjects. So might be easier to scan through for keywords in the titles.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 07, 2023, 06:52:57 am
The geese want you to think the bird flu killed the swans, but in reality the geese killed the swans.Peace was never an option
Post by: scriver on March 07, 2023, 09:19:29 am
[1] One study can so often be flawed/focussing upon the wrong thing, of course, so naturally with all due caution of accepting a forum summary of a web-page (that I haven't tried to read, yet) promoting a single analysis of unknown depth... ;)
[2] e.g. wrt lockdowns/lack of. And I think there was also something on More Or Less (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00msxfl/episodes/player)[3] about how it was not basically Logan's Run in their carehomes, as other have said. (I'd have to search through and relisten myself, maybe it was another Scandiwegian country?) Anyway, lessons in avoiding cherry-picking.
On footnote one: I probably should have mentioned that the source of the source was research done by Swedish Central Statistics Bureau on behalf of the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet, but in my defense, it was 20 past 4 am at the time of writing that.
They actually interview Anders Tegnell, former head guy of the health authorities, in the Sv Dagbladet article (which I haven't read because it was paywalled), probably angling for some juicy "I told you so" comment from the man who got so much shit for the methodology, and in typical Tegnellian fashion he instead replied "well excess death rate isn't the end all be all of measuring the effects of a pandemic".
On footnote 2: I haven't actually seen Logan's Run (I know, shame on me) so while I'm not sure about that part, I can guess that they were probably talking about Sweden. And I can say that while abroad they were probably hyperboling it up and portraying instances as generalities, it is also completely true that it was not good how it went down, so I also don't feel comfortable smoothing it over.
Post by: Sirus on March 10, 2023, 01:24:05 pm
What the hell do we do now?
Post by: TD1 on March 10, 2023, 01:25:54 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 10, 2023, 02:27:52 pm
Post by: Sirus on March 10, 2023, 02:46:11 pm
A question that has been bugging me: should we continue to isolate from each other? They say misery loves company, and if we're all sick with the same bug is there any reason to not eat meals or spend time together?
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 10, 2023, 03:14:39 pm
A question that has been bugging me: should we continue to isolate from each other? They say misery loves company, and if we're all sick with the same bug is there any reason to not eat meals or spend time together?No. What on earth would that do?
Post by: Grim Portent on March 10, 2023, 04:26:37 pm
Post by: Sirus on March 10, 2023, 04:41:03 pm
It didn't make a ton of sense in my mind but I know that Covid mutates quickly and it's perfectly possible to catch it again months later.
Post by: Starver on March 10, 2023, 05:05:39 pm
If two people arrived with their own separate strains (or even root diseases) and then foujd themselves isolated together then it might be more trouble, but if you're already convinced that whatever you got has already crossed over in your own home then I think the additional precaution is of insignificant help. Any doubling up of pathogens has probably already happened.
Far more likely that you all got the same thing shared around. Starting with whoever was the initially unlucky one to bring it into the household, perhaps prior to symptoms (which might not have started before another became symptomatic, before you try to second guess that). Further environmental contamination by one person probably won't be enough to increase another's risk, who has already succumbed and busy being their own self-infector as much as anything.
All that said, take care, get well soon and look after each other as best you can. At least there's a handy support group, pre-formed, to work out how to deal with any developing needs. So long as there's no risk to go stir-crazy... ;)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 10, 2023, 05:11:12 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 10, 2023, 05:14:33 pm
I guess I was just worried that, say, my dad would get better for a day or two but then catch a mutated strain from me, getting sick again. Then we'd all be trapped in a cycle of sickness as we gave each other new germs.It sounds like you have some misconceptions about how reinfection works in the first place.
It didn't make a ton of sense in my mind but I know that Covid mutates quickly and it's perfectly possible to catch it again months later.
Coronaviruses "mutate quickly" in general, relatively speaking, but it's falling antibody titres (and to an extent changes in the antibody types being produced) that drive reinfection, not mutation - most mutations don't even change the resulting protein product at all, and those that do usually don't affect antibody binding (this is necessary - the viral proteins still have to have roughly the same forms in order to function, so mutations that can both inhibit binding and still produce a working protein are rare). Even when they do, the effect is most likely partial, and with the broad spectrum of differnetly-targeted antibodies produced in an actual infection, inhibiting antibody binding in one place still doesn't change the binding anywhere else. You can also tell this from the fact that the Omicron type is substantially different from the original strain, but still hasn't fully neutralized antibodies that were made to target it, although they seem to be much less effective. Most of the currently circulating variants are just not different enough from earlier Omicron-type variants for there to be much difference in antibody binding. (Of course, the considerable differences we see between Omicron and the original are enough, but that's not something that happens easily or often.)
Another line of argument that could help: viruses go through an enormous number of generations just inside one single person. The viruses inside you at the end of an infection have experienced a huge amount of evolution toward "infecting this guy in particular" compared to the ones that went in. If it were that easy to mutate away from your antibodies while the immune system is active and producing them at high levels, you'd never be able to clear an infection at all. (Well, the innate immune system would still help, but it'd have a hard time of it.)
Now, there is a caveat, which is that, if the body is still specifically producing antibodies targeted toward the original strain even while being infected by an Omicron-type strain, which can happen, then those antibodies just don't work very well and you can still be infected; but that has nothing to do with ongoing mutation so the speed of mutation doesn't apply. You could be hit by the same exact Omicron strain again and again and fall for it every time. That shouldn't apply to you, though, since you've never had it before, unless you already had antibodies to earlier strains.
Post by: Sirus on March 18, 2023, 01:51:02 pm
No matter the case, I'm glad we weren't all miserable for two weeks or more.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 20, 2023, 06:59:27 am
I am too tired for this
Post by: Ziusudra on April 28, 2023, 09:33:58 pm
Quote
Data do not support seal-to-seal transmission as a primary route of infection.
Post by: King Zultan on April 29, 2023, 01:12:20 am
Also if it can infect seals does it even need to be called pig flu anymore, might be time to rename it?
Post by: Ziusudra on April 29, 2023, 02:48:11 am
Most viruses can infect other other animal kingdoms, but are less virulent when they do, unless they adapt, which is the worry with this.
But it's just like that 1918 strain, many still call it "the Spanish flu" even though it didn't really hav any thing to do with Spain. But it's easier for human brains to remember things like that than alphanumeric strings like HPAI A(H5N1) or A/H1N1/1918.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 29, 2023, 03:41:52 am
But it's just like that 1918 strain, many still call it "the Spanish flu" even though it didn't really hav any thing to do with Spain. But it's easier for human brains to remember things like that than alphanumeric strings like HPAI A(H5N1) or A/H1N1/1918.
Well, it did have something to do with Spain, as that's where the outbreak was first reported. Primarily because Spain was one of the very few countries in Europe where "stabbing some other guy in a trench" was not the latest fad, and thus they were not subject to wartime censorship. Most of Europe was also getting hit (that's probably how it made it to the US - military traffic back and forth), but major disease outbreaks are the kind of thing you really don't want your enemies to know about.
Post by: Ziusudra on April 29, 2023, 05:22:59 am
Anyway, when I said "it didn't really hav any thing to do with Spain" I meant epidemiologically.
Post by: Ziusudra on July 08, 2023, 01:01:27 pm
Quote from: https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/article-749008
While 20 cats have been confirmed to have been killed by the H5N1 subtype of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Poland in recent weeks, the source of the outbreak among the felines remains elusive.
Post by: Ziusudra on April 28, 2024, 02:20:12 pm
Quote
So far there is only one confirmed human case.
...
Sid Miller, the Texas commissioner for agriculture ... said he strongly suspected that the outbreak dated back to at least February.
...
So far, the agency told me, it is aware of only 23 people who have been tested.
Post by: King Zultan on April 30, 2024, 01:13:38 am
Post by: heydude6 on April 30, 2024, 08:34:29 am
Post by: Starver on April 30, 2024, 02:11:57 pm
And something will always turn up that is thought a non-issue (even by the media[1]...) but actually be very much an issue. (As recent history shows, and I'm not just talking about the events this particular thread are about.)
You can say "You can't trust the media's hype" all you want, but it's also clear that you can't trust all kinds of other hype (or indeed counter-hype). Who are you trusting more: some rando 'twiX' account, or profesional journalists whose careers aren't so easy to restart from scratch if they are perceived to do a bad job?
...also, "the media" really isn't hyping this up at all. Maybe this means they don't see good reason to do so, yet. Maybe they're not yet seeing enough good evidence to put their heads above the parapets.
[1] If you can label them all as an amorphous mass, given that they're often competing and contrarily-leaning units, hardly likely to spontaneously push a single viewpoint anyway.
Post by: hector13 on April 30, 2024, 02:25:42 pm
Post by: Starver on April 30, 2024, 03:18:35 pm
Pretty sure bird flu has been a problem in the UK for a long while now. One of my wife’s former classmates was involved in dealing with it, and I was horrified last year to discover the penguin parade at Edinburgh Zoo was suspended indefinitely because of bird flu.
Not saying it isn't, if that was about my post. Just that 'news wise' it's off the boil. The crashes of breeding colonies of birds, in the news at the time, isn't really being commented upon since the lowering levels of precaution (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bird-flu-latest-situation-avian-influenza-prevention-zone-declared-across-great-britain) last year. This might be due to experts being happier about the situation, or despite experts not yet being happy about it. (This is one of those cases where there'll be complaints about experts doing "too much" and "not enough", xepending upon who you ask. And, for some of them, possibly both at the same time.)
But, really, I was reacting against "the media is hyping this for nefarious purposes!", which is how I read the preceding post. If they are, they're being awfully subtle about it. And if you disbelieve everything "the media" says then you're probably on the wrong track, too (whatever track that leads you on). At least be discerning and think about it all. I mean, if I heard that (e.g.) GBNews had announced something then I might be doubtful, but it's possible they're not wrong. If it seemed important enough, for my situation, I'd at least see what other perspectives said about it. ;)
Post by: heydude6 on April 30, 2024, 06:19:07 pm
I can't afford to let myself get invested in every catastrophe the media is talking about, especially when it's something I have no control over. That's gonna wreck your mental health. So for the sake of my sanity, I really have no choice but to ignore it until it becomes a more active part of my life.
It's stuff like this that makes me hate modern news media, because I want to be informed, I want to know what's going on around me, but they add so much junk in with the real stories that consuming too much of it literally makes you sick.
Post by: King Zultan on May 01, 2024, 01:55:40 am
Post by: Starver on May 01, 2024, 09:13:17 am