Post by: EuchreJack on March 06, 2023, 10:57:48 pm
I would ask that everyone respect the quite harsh reactions that some may have to these events. War is nasty enough, suffering is prevalent, try not to add to negativity if you can.
Good civil discourse will keep this thread going longer. Please, avoid advocating for death as much as possible.
Please avoid personal attacks!
Whether or not you agree with what someone said several weeks ago...was relevant several weeks ago. Let it go, please.
Beware of Trolls!
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/002/419/307/407)
Post by: Strongpoint on March 06, 2023, 11:29:00 pm
I would prefer if we had more links, info, etc.
But yeah, that sucks.
I have created a backup Emotional thread, in case the primary is compromised. (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=181482.0)
There is not much info. A big Ukrainian blogger got a video of the execution of a Ukrainian POW. It seems like all of Ukraine is trying to find the name of this guy ATM. He will be one of the symbols of the war...
If, for some reason, you have a need to watch an execution in which Russians unload a lot of bullets in an unarmed man (I advise not to, even if I did far too many times), then here it is - https://twitter.com/sternenko/status/1632724928448417792
We all know that it is very common (if anything, this guy is lucky to not be tortured to death) but such visuals... are a stark reminder of what this war really is.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 06, 2023, 11:35:28 pm
So, the issue become authentication.
Post by: King Zultan on March 07, 2023, 04:39:02 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 07, 2023, 05:16:56 am
Post by: Starver on March 07, 2023, 06:23:13 am
We all know that it is very common (if anything, this guy is lucky to not be tortured to death) but such visuals... are a stark reminder of what this war really is.What it also highlights is that people are filming these things, sympathetically[1] to the offenders. Which then leaks out, as seen here. Not every war-crime will be recorded, not every recording will be (over-)distributed, not every distribution will be brought to our attention. (And this applies to both/all[2] sides of this conflict, of course.)
But it's likely to be happening a lot. Compared (https://xkcd.com/1235/) to the days where such things would need use of far more professional equipment, a developing lab of some kind, or even way back when you needed a reliable and otherwise unimpeachable artist/scribe with the time and ability to create and courier their concoctions back to 'polite society'. Compared with the notoriously anal Nazi/Stasi record-keeping (initially self-serving, each, though self-condemning afterwards), and the like, it seems like something that's not so organised but potentially far more pervasive if sufficient pieces can all be gathered together from the many devices, memory sticks, cloud storages and other web-hosted locations.
(Yet still the mostly unseen (or barely seen[3]) is going to pervade like a stink, in amongst the pure and unsubstantiated mis(/dis/un)information.)
I'm not masochistic enough to go looking for the footage myself, it's too easy to trip over such things anyway. And I pity the person who immediately recognises their MIA relative, if that ever happens. I'm wondering if I should actually try to flip the number of deaths that mean a tragedy/statistic, though, just for the good of my sanity.
I have a weird little conspiracy theory that someone is hacking old-ish accounts to use as troll sockpuppets. It's probably one guy. I don't know how to explain this otherwise, except as the slowest raid ever.I had a similar inkling, but ultimately the logistics don't sit right in my head. And its hardly copypasta, so some imagination used as well as technical success. Then again, for two or three individuals to suddenly deciding to poke their noses in... Quite a 'spate' of such occurances.
(And I think EJ wants to keep this new thread free of troll-related talk, as well as obvious trolls (or just the misguided?) themselves. So I'll say no more.)
[1] If not colludingly or actually participating as. Not having seen anything more than the screengrab shot, but having good reason to presume it was a perpetrator/hanger-on capturing the event on
[2] I presume there's also Wagner vs. conscripted Regulars, elite forces vs. such self-shanghaied penal troops, etc, depending upon which unlucky Russian found themselves at the mercy of what other Russians. Before you start to worry about notional non-combatants of all flavours and (mis)fortunes.
[3] Remembering the situation from Olenivka, I think it was. An atrocity that probably covered up yet other atrocities.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 07, 2023, 06:42:16 am
Also the Wagner-Russian MOD divide is just fantastic news for Ukraine. They've straight up progressed to the point of accusing each other of treason and marginalising each other. Progzhin has even been denied access to Russian military HQ now. (https://nationalpost.com/news/wagner-chief-says-russian-army-hq-has-denied-access-warns-of-frontline-collapse-if-they-retreat)
It's no wonder the Ukrainians see no point in withdrawing from Bakhmut yet. Their enemy is publicly complaining about running out of ammunition and accusing their own allies of trying to get them killed, so may as well hold fast and wait for the mercenaries and the conscripts to start throwing each other out of windows. I've seen insubstantiated rumours that Russian contract soldiers murdered a wounded Wagner commander with an axe but I'm not posting that vid here for obvious reasons.
All I'm saying is, one of Prigozhin's allies was shot dead point blank range at a Russian checkpoint in Ukraine (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/igor-mangushev-russian-ukrainian-skull-dies-soldier-b1058916.html). Russian authorities are not investigating it, even though the circumstances of his death point to a Russian soldier conducting the attack
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Grim Portent on March 07, 2023, 10:42:10 am
Who could've guessed that soldiers and mercenaries don't get along when things are bad?
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 07, 2023, 10:44:33 am
It's almost as if having a PMC (even a sockpuppet one) be a significant part of your military is a bad idea."Dude stop dude do you even know how much of a shit idea this is NO NO NO STOP"
Who could've guessed that soldiers and mercenaries don't get along when things are bad?
-Nicholo Machiavelli, the Prince
It's even funnier when you realise the Russian defence minister Shoigu has his own PMC Patriot and now even Gazprom is setting up its own PMC. Russia is about to enter a warlord era. The moment Putin dies shit will be so fucked, every single Oligarch will have his own private army and each of them will try throw the other out a window before it happens to them
*EDIT
Quote from: https://warsawinstitute.org/wagner-versus-patriot-fighting-mercenary-control/
Recently in Syria, there have been some tensions between mercenaries from the Wagner Company and Russian troops. Patriot offers better soldier’s pay as well as equipment and training that its “rival”. In addition, both companies have competed for a contract to provide security at gold mines located in the Central African Republic. Eventually, the tender was won by the Wagner Company.Really spicy when the Defence Minister in charge of the army runs his own PMC which is a rival to the army and other rival PMCs. It'd be hilarious if this whole Army-Wagner schism seriously only started because Shoigu lost out on contracts for blood money in the CAR against Prigozhin. With such allies, who needs enemies?
Post by: KittyTac on March 07, 2023, 10:58:06 am
Post by: Grim Portent on March 07, 2023, 11:56:37 am
It's even funnier when you realise the Russian defence minister Shoigu has his own PMC Patriot and now even Gazprom is setting up its own PMC. Russia is about to enter a warlord era. The moment Putin dies shit will be so fucked, every single Oligarch will have his own private army and each of them will try throw the other out a window before it happens to them
I really can't understand why any government would allow PMCs to be a thing, letting your people buy military hardware in the first place is a bad idea, letting them establish actual paramilitary groups with a for-profit motive just makes it even dumber. Doesn't matter where they're allowed to fight and who they can fight for, it's just such a dumb thing to do.
Post by: nenjin on March 07, 2023, 12:22:11 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 07, 2023, 12:39:28 pm
It's even funnier when you realise the Russian defence minister Shoigu has his own PMC Patriot and now even Gazprom is setting up its own PMC. Russia is about to enter a warlord era. The moment Putin dies shit will be so fucked, every single Oligarch will have his own private army and each of them will try throw the other out a window before it happens to them
I really can't understand why any government would allow PMCs to be a thing, letting your people buy military hardware in the first place is a bad idea, letting them establish actual paramilitary groups with a for-profit motive just makes it even dumber. Doesn't matter where they're allowed to fight and who they can fight for, it's just such a dumb thing to do.
The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham)
In other news, the Ukrainian Air Force is now confirmed to be using JDAM kits. (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine)
JDAM is a kit that converts a standard US Mark-8X dumb gravity bomb into a GPS-guided smart bomb. Such a weapon not is bigger than a GMLRS rocket - there is no kit for the Mark 81 250 bomb (with a 96 pound charge), so the absolute smallest JDAM option is the Mk-82 500 pounder (192 pounds of boom), with the 1000 pound -83 and 2000 pound -84 being the other less likely options. A single GMLRS carries a 200 pound warhead, 51 pounds of which are the explosive charge. While it can't strike much further from the launcher than GMLRS, the "launcher" here is a jet fighter that has extreme mobility itself instead of a simple truck that takes hours or days to cover any real distance. In practical terms it can strike anywhere near the frontline as long as Ukraine is willing to risk the aircraft.
We don't know the launch platform they're using yet (in theory, it could use the same program-on-ground setup they're using for HARM and integrate it on any of their combat aircraft), and Russian long range air-to-air missiles are A Problem, it is a huge boost to combat capability.
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 07, 2023, 12:43:40 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 07, 2023, 12:52:57 pm
I have a weird little conspiracy theory that someone is hacking old-ish accounts to use as troll sockpuppets. It's probably one guy. I don't know how to explain this otherwise, except as the slowest raid ever.I think it instead speaks to a culture shift in the forum and the aging of it's earlier members. As for the most recent incident, I reported him.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 07, 2023, 01:13:03 pm
Armenia and Azerbaijan are close to an even bigger war than in 2020
Weird stuff is happening in Moldova, I think it is likely that it will be involved in the Ukrainian war in one way or another soon.
Georgia... The situation there reminds Ukraine 2014. A LOT. Corrupt Pro-Russian government pushes the country closer and closer to Russia while talking about wanting to move towards EU. There is even a direct parallel Saakashvili-Tymoshenko. Right now, there are clashes with riot police in Tbilisi and even if this episode won't explode into a major crisis, I am sure that it will come later. To make matter worse, many "anti-war" (aka I want to see Ukraine destroyed ASAP but I value my life and don't want to be drafted) Russians fled to Georgia. I would be shocked if FSB didn't infiltrate a lot of agents using this situation.
Don't know much about Central Asia, but I heard that they started to feel the effects of the Russian recession on their own economies
Post by: Grim Portent on March 07, 2023, 01:53:25 pm
The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham)
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 07, 2023, 02:38:25 pm
It does reek of warlordism. A further breakup Russia is likely.The entire reason Wagner exists is so Russia has a force for military adventurism that doesn't involve official Russian forces. This allows them to push a lot further internationally than they could safely risk if they weren't using a semi-deniable proxy - Syria's a good example. The US is maintaining an active and open military presence, so sending official Russian forces to back the other side raises the serious risk of Official Americans shooting Official Russians. Or, in other words, a direct shooting incident between nuclear powers. Sending Wagner instead allows for a "oh, no, those aren't ours" way out when, for example, Wagner forces attack a base and the US simply erases them. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham)
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Post by: jipehog on March 07, 2023, 03:19:52 pm
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Moronic? I would say the exact opposite. PMCs allowed Russia a modicum of plausible deniability, operating with almost no oversight or effective legal constraints and have been very effective (and still are in Africa) in pursue Russian objectives in more overt terms because only an idiot would engage the one holding the biggest stick with traditional means.
Also FYI most countries use some variant of mercs, at one point USA had in Iraq almost as many PMCs as regular soldiers (iirc close to 100k, which more than what Wagner have atm)
Edited.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 07, 2023, 03:34:41 pm
Yes, but in the US, all the PMCs were under the control of the same person. By which I mean,Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Moronic? I would say the exact opposite. PMCs allowed Russia a modicum of plausible deniability, operating with almost no oversight or effective legal constraints and have been very effective (and still are in Africa) in pursue Russian objectives in more overt terms because only an idiot would engage the one holding the biggest stick with traditional means.
Also FYI most countries use some variant of mercs, at one point USA had in Iraq almost as many PMCs as regular soldiers (iirc close to 100k, which more than what Wagner have atm)
Edited.
Post by: lemon10 on March 07, 2023, 03:52:39 pm
Now that still seems like a moronic thing to me, because it still means you have a technically independant military force based out of your own country, that is going to become a rival to your actual military. There's plenty of ways to be hands off but still militarily intervene without having to act through a PMC as a proxy. Local militants, the militaries of allied and/or subect nations, 'volunteer' extranational forces.This isn't a bug, its a feature.
The whole Cold War was a practice in superpowers fighting without actually fighting, a PMC just feels like such an amatuerish way to go about it.
Putin has deliberately broken up the army into multiple different competing structures so that no one group or leader can amass enough power to meaningfully challenge or (god forbid) overthrow him.
This fragmentation weakens the military power of Russia of course, but a weaker Russian military is less of an problem to Putin then getting lined up against the wall by a firing squad and shot.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 07, 2023, 04:13:41 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 07, 2023, 06:27:18 pm
What is long united must divide
Post by: heydude6 on March 07, 2023, 08:34:36 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 08, 2023, 05:23:44 am
We are fucked on so many levels, I hope I can finish my education before a civil war happens so I can move out because I sure as hell am not going to fight.Are you sure it isn't time to say fuck the education and leave before it's to late to do so?
Post by: KittyTac on March 08, 2023, 06:34:11 am
Nah if the war starts early I'll just leave, I'm close to a border with a neutral country so it'll be fine.We are fucked on so many levels, I hope I can finish my education before a civil war happens so I can move out because I sure as hell am not going to fight.Are you sure it isn't time to say fuck the education and leave before it's to late to do so?
Post by: brewer bob on March 08, 2023, 06:37:04 am
Post by: EuchreJack on March 08, 2023, 09:14:27 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 08, 2023, 04:33:45 pm
Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 08, 2023, 04:49:59 pm
So, it looks like Georgia is about to enter a major political crisis, perhaps to the extent of Ukraine 2014.Aw shit, here we go again
Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.
>Russian military occupation of territory
>pro-Russian government baits population with talks of EU membership but balks
>protests in the street against pro-Russian government
Post by: Jerick on March 08, 2023, 04:50:32 pm
Post by: Jopax on March 08, 2023, 06:09:57 pm
Post by: Great Order on March 08, 2023, 10:01:58 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on March 08, 2023, 10:16:13 pm
Post by: brewer bob on March 09, 2023, 12:47:41 am
So, it looks like Georgia is about to enter a major political crisis, perhaps to the extent of Ukraine 2014.Aw shit, here we go again
Not entirely off-topic because 1) the current Georgian government helps Russia to circumvent sanctions 2) Russia is insane enough to invade Georgia opening one more front.
>Russian military occupation of territory
>pro-Russian government baits population with talks of EU membership but balks
>protests in the street against pro-Russian government
Just hoping that if/when things progress to Russia invading Georgia, people won't just stand idly by like last time.
Post by: King Zultan on March 09, 2023, 03:13:06 am
I'm sure the western satanists are involved and the whole thing is a plot to hurt Russia and that no genocide will come of it.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 09, 2023, 04:20:34 am
Sounds like Georgia is becoming Ukraine 2: Electric Boogaloo.
I'm sure the western satanists are involved and the whole thing is a plot to hurt Russia and that no genocide will come of it.
Well, Russia is unable to invade Georgia ATM so if they do everything quickly...
The draft which caused protests is already recalled so it may end soon. Or not. After the opposition gets what it wanted it either calms down or... becomes emboldened by their victory and demands more.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 09, 2023, 07:36:07 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 09, 2023, 08:48:38 am
Hey Strongpoint, what's the situation in Bakhmut? Our media is saying it has almost fallen but I don't trust them at all obv.Short answer - Fog of war makes it extremely hard to say what is really happening there.
Slightly longer answer - it is almost encircled, the degree of that almost is hard to tell. Also eastern part of the city is no longer under Ukrainian control but how much of it is captured by Russian forces and how much of it is a gray zone is also extremely hard to tell.
I tend to trust this map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375 It usually proves to be relatively accurate but with so much conflicting information I don't think that they represent what is happening there well ATM.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 09, 2023, 08:51:01 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 09, 2023, 08:57:17 am
At least Georgia's Opposition Party can use Ukraine's history and defiance as a roadmap. It'll be hard, but at least they're not grappling blindly.
On other hand, the Georgian government has a failed example of suppressing protests and may study what went wrong.
Lukashenka kinda did that... but there were many wrong things with Belarusian protests, starting with the lack of properly organized opposition with legal status.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 09, 2023, 09:17:13 am
That is true, but arguably Moscow has fewer resources now to support their puppets, while the opposition has a rally point.At least Georgia's Opposition Party can use Ukraine's history and defiance as a roadmap. It'll be hard, but at least they're not grappling blindly.
On other hand, the Georgian government has a failed example of suppressing protests and may study what went wrong.
Lukashenka kinda did that... but there were many wrong things with Belarusian protests, starting with the lack of properly organized opposition with legal status.
Post by: jipehog on March 09, 2023, 09:59:27 am
Well, Russia is unable to invade Georgia ATM so if they do everything quickly...What can they achieve though?
----
U.S. Officials Say, Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html
Post by: anewaname on March 09, 2023, 02:24:01 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 09, 2023, 10:15:23 pm
Well, Russia is unable to invade Georgia ATM so if they do everything quickly...What can they achieve though?
----
U.S. Officials Say, Intelligence Suggests Pro-Ukrainian Group Sabotaged Pipelines.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html
I feel like you answered your own question...
2024 headline: U.S. Officials Say, Intelligence Suggest Pro-Georgia Group Sabotaged Pipelines.
Post by: hector13 on March 10, 2023, 12:44:51 am
Hey.
Prigozhin through window?
Post by: jipehog on March 10, 2023, 01:01:19 am
Russia doesn't have the resources to actively fight in Georgia but they have already invested resources in pro-Russian groups within Georgia. Conflict in Georgia can only benefit Russia.
I do not know. But I did heard arguments that Russia was seeking to start another front to undermine Western interest. Moldova was often talked about, and more recently talks of Wagner doing shading stuff in Serbia for example.
Otherwise I find the Caucasus to be a very interesting place where Russia, Turkey and Iran are competing with opposing interests. More recently it seem that Russia seeks to establish a new sanction busting transcontinental trade corridor southward to Iran via the Caucasus. With the trio recently holding some high level summit, with announcement of many cooperation agreements at least on paper.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 10, 2023, 02:50:48 am
Russia doesn't have the resources to actively fight in Georgia but they have already invested resources in pro-Russian groups within Georgia. Conflict in Georgia can only benefit Russia.
Russia got a pro-Russian government in Georgia, way more pro-Russian than the population (Note that both the aggression against Ukraine and Russians who fled from mobilization to Georgia made the local population more anti-Russian than before.)
No, Russia does not want a political crisis in Georgia that may put another government in charge.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 10, 2023, 01:36:39 pm
Like how Russian official Twitter accounts post cartoon-villain level threats, Empty threats
Guys, last time when you invaded Georgia, you used 70+K troops. Do you really think you can pull that away from the frontlines? I approve this idea.
Post by: jipehog on March 10, 2023, 06:58:44 pm
Also they can retaliate by annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia (they wouldn't even need to falsify a referendum) which could lead to escalation that isn't likely to benefit Georgia and may not benefit the west.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 10, 2023, 07:16:35 pm
Russia can do a whole lot of damage to Georgia without making a single shot.
Also they can retaliate by annexing Abkhazia and South Ossetia (they wouldn't even need to falsify a referendum) which could lead to escalation that isn't likely to benefit Georgia and may not benefit the west.
I fail to see how the second part changes anything for Georgia. De facto annexed territories over which Georgia has no control or hope to get them back will stay that way. And it is even more mysterious for me how it hurts "The West"
And yes, Russia can hurt Georgia economically or via other non-military action but I don't think the tweet is saying that.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 10, 2023, 10:13:59 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 11, 2023, 02:47:35 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 11, 2023, 03:06:25 am
Twitter doesn't seem like a trust worthy news source, I'm still not really sure why people still take that shit hole seriously.
Twitter is merely a medium to reach news sources, not a news source. And it is great in this role. (
It is also a great place to see which narratives are pushed and by whom.
Post by: WisdomThumbs on March 11, 2023, 03:43:26 am
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 11, 2023, 04:49:21 am
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.Just wait until the next guy in our local Putinist Tag Team comes here...
Post by: Ganondworf on March 11, 2023, 07:33:46 am
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.
That's why this thread is my personal major news source about this war. <3
Post by: Strongpoint on March 11, 2023, 11:40:57 am
We have a website with petitions to the president. You know, usual stuff with 99% of proposals being silly nonsense with a few dozen of signatures. But sometimes some things get 25K signatures. One of those is petition to rename Russian Federation into Muscovy in all official Ukrainian documents. And it got a usual answer, something along the lines of "I'll ask the PM to look into the possibility"
But butthurt in the Russian segment of social networks (up to Zakharova and Medveded) is so entertaining to watch.
__________
Also, we got a draft law allowing "civil partnership" for same-sex couples, which gives some rights* of married couples (making it marriage would require changing the constitution which is hard in peacetime and prohibited during martial law) and it will take a long time before it will be a law. But still, it is amazing how few give any Fs, at any other time it would be a huge shitstorm.
*notably it doesn't count as a marriage for the purposes of adopting children.
I am skeptical that it will go through any time soon but I like the direction.
Post by: Ganondworf on March 11, 2023, 12:09:18 pm
Some amusing stuff:
We have a website with petitions to the president. You know, usual stuff with 99% of proposals being silly nonsense with a few dozen of signatures. But sometimes some things get 25K signatures. One of those is petition to rename Russian Federation into Muscovy in all official Ukrainian documents. And it got a usual answer, something along the lines of "I'll ask the PM to look into the possibility"
But butthurt in the Russian segment of social networks (up to Zakharova and Medveded) is so entertaining to watch.
Could you explain the butthurt? As I understand, Muscovy was one of the predecessor political entities of current Russia. While I would certainly think someone referring to Germany as Prussia, for example, to be strange or stupid, depending on their intent, I don't think I would feel offended very much. Is the use of Muscovy somehow derogatory, or is it just the usual nationlistic pride?
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 11, 2023, 12:25:10 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on March 11, 2023, 12:36:25 pm
Some amusing stuff:
We have a website with petitions to the president. You know, usual stuff with 99% of proposals being silly nonsense with a few dozen of signatures. But sometimes some things get 25K signatures. One of those is petition to rename Russian Federation into Muscovy in all official Ukrainian documents. And it got a usual answer, something along the lines of "I'll ask the PM to look into the possibility"
But butthurt in the Russian segment of social networks (up to Zakharova and Medveded) is so entertaining to watch.
Could you explain the butthurt? As I understand, Muscovy was one of the predecessor political entities of current Russia. While I would certainly think someone referring to Germany as Prussia, for example, to be strange or stupid, depending on their intent, I don't think I would feel offended very much. Is the use of Muscovy somehow derogatory, or is it just the usual nationlistic pride?
It kinda can be viewed as derogatory if one wishes to but it is not the reason. (Note that Ukrainians called them that for centuries. Oh, and we called ourselves both Ukrainians and Rusyns for quite some time. Russians were muscovites or moskali, we didn't call them Russians until we were occupied by them and that name was gradually forced upon us, with them being Great Russians and us Small Russians. Centuries long brotherhood, you know)
They really dislike the attack on their historical myth that they are somehow the same political entity as the pre-Mongol invasion Rus. This is about as logical as if Americans called William the Conqueror an ancient American King and the UK their historic lands. And calling their country Muscovy is EXACTLY an attack on that myth.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 11, 2023, 12:38:14 pm
Post by: anewaname on March 11, 2023, 01:15:57 pm
Agreed, Russia does not want a political crisis in Georgia... They want the Georgian government to be stronger and to be able to exert more control.Russia doesn't have the resources to actively fight in Georgia but they have already invested resources in pro-Russian groups within Georgia. Conflict in Georgia can only benefit Russia.
Russia got a pro-Russian government in Georgia, way more pro-Russian than the population (Note that both the aggression against Ukraine and Russians who fled from mobilization to Georgia made the local population more anti-Russian than before.)
No, Russia does not want a political crisis in Georgia that may put another government in charge.
What happens if there are civilian deaths in Georgia and it is blamed on non-Georgians? Currently Georgia has many Russian and Ukrainian refugees, and family-ties in Russia and Ukraine. Civilian deaths would allow the government the justification to start hunting "terrorists", restrict some freedom of movement, increase identification checks, and increase policing activities.
Conflict within Georgia will take attention away from what is happening in Ukraine. It may even allow groups within the Georgian government to help Russia in some ways.
Post by: Starver on March 11, 2023, 01:43:18 pm
Spoiler: Duck (click to show/hide)
Post by: Ganondworf on March 11, 2023, 02:16:02 pm
Post by: jipehog on March 11, 2023, 03:35:05 pm
I fail to see how the second part changes anything for Georgia. De facto annexed territories over which Georgia has no control or hope to get them back will stay that way. And it is even more mysterious for me how it hurts "The West"That is not how Georgia view this, they regard those breakaway republic as occupied, with unification still high on the agenda; I am not convinced this is unrealistic view given Georgia policies and future prospects especially if Russia goes under.
As for the second part, I am talking about possible outcome of things escalating in Georgia, which could undermine the west position.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 11, 2023, 08:33:20 pm
I fail to see how the second part changes anything for Georgia. De facto annexed territories over which Georgia has no control or hope to get them back will stay that way. And it is even more mysterious for me how it hurts "The West"That is not how Georgia view this, they regard those breakaway republic as occupied, with unification still high on the agenda; I am not convinced this is unrealistic view given Georgia policies and future prospects especially if Russia goes under.
As for the second part, I am talking about possible outcome of things escalating in Georgia, which could undermine the west position.
Georgia views those republics as occupied, true. But it is absolutely irrelevant what fake legal status Russia will give to them. Georgia will get those republics only when Russia will stop to exist (or gains a government willing to return those, which is as likely as an alien invasion).
Also, a large chunk of the Georgian population views those territories as "those are our territories but actually reclaiming them seems like such pain in the ass, we better spend our resources developing what we control." Not that such things are admitted
Post by: EuchreJack on March 11, 2023, 08:56:14 pm
It's also great as a medium to reach dogma sources, liars, crazy people, and lots and lots of art of varying degrees of quality. But the filter bubbles inherent in its system are blinders that completely blot out certain narratives, diminish others, and re-frame yet more to appear to be something they're not. It's a mess. A lively, thriving mess that needs more competitors.
I'm surprised at how reserved this thread is. Fewer theses, soapboxes, and Definitives than I normally see online. This is the kind of online discussion I've been missing for years.
This thread is new.
Previous one, which was pretty good except for the Troll Attacks (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.0)
Post by: jipehog on March 12, 2023, 01:25:03 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 12, 2023, 03:00:18 am
Spoiler: Duck (click to show/hide)
Eyy I know what that is!
Post by: Eric Blank on March 12, 2023, 03:30:37 am
Post by: King Zultan on March 12, 2023, 03:38:40 am
*shakes fist while loading a gun*
Post by: jipehog on March 12, 2023, 05:48:27 am
What are the news on Bakhmut strategy, we seem to have some conflicting version from Ukraine?
Post by: Strongpoint on March 12, 2023, 07:32:15 am
Also, Kadyrov has a 17-year-old son. He'll do. Monarchies are easy.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2023, 08:25:25 am
What are the news on Bakhmut strategy, we seem to have some conflicting version from Ukraine?Local analysts think the idea is that keeping the town stalls the Russian offensive from developing further inward, which would let them keep the initiative and hobble Ukrainian preparations for their own offensive. Claims in the news that they're grinding the enemy down seem to hold less water now, that the town is in operational encirclement and losses are closer to equal on both sides. But since it's mainly light infantry doing the fighting, the losses may have been deemed acceptable.
Post by: Great Order on March 12, 2023, 09:04:16 am
Invasive birds? Do they taste good?Duck's one of those meats I seriously miss after going vegetarian.
So probably, yes.
Post by: jipehog on March 12, 2023, 02:19:58 pm
Could be. Looking at the topographical map, I am not sure how far their next line would be, although it does give credence to the idea that is not as bad as it seems. From what I hear, it would be very hard for Russia to finish that encirclement against Ukrainian position on the high ground, likely its not their goal instead they are going would try to push north toward Ukrainians artillery position to widen the Ukrainian corridor, maybe even try for a bigger encirclement.What are the news on Bakhmut strategy, we seem to have some conflicting version from Ukraine?Local analysts think the idea is that keeping the town stalls the Russian offensive from developing further inward, which would let them keep the initiative and hobble Ukrainian preparations for their own offensive. Claims in the news that they're grinding the enemy down seem to hold less water now, that the town is in operational encirclement and losses are closer to equal on both sides. But since it's mainly light infantry doing the fighting, the losses may have been deemed acceptable.
I suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 12, 2023, 03:44:03 pm
"Swiss weapons must not be used in wars," he told the NZZ am Sonntag weekly.
We got definitive proof that Ukrainians are not Nazis. Because if we were, Switzerland would supply us with ammo.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2023, 03:44:40 pm
I suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.The surrounding terrain is hilly, but it's hardly mountains.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 12, 2023, 04:15:57 pm
Swiss neutrality is more important than ever, President Alain Berset said in an interview published Sunday, defending the controversial ban on transferring Swiss-made arms to Ukraine.LOL
"Swiss weapons must not be used in wars," he told the NZZ am Sonntag weekly.
We got definitive proof that Ukrainians are not Nazis. Because if we were, Switzerland would supply us with ammo.
Post by: jipehog on March 12, 2023, 08:11:20 pm
Roughly half kilometer elevation between Bakhmut river (ostensibly current Russian position per deepstatemap) and Chasiv yar (reportedly Ukraine's artillery's position) so an uphill battel if you pleaseI suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.The surrounding terrain is hilly, but it's hardly mountains.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 12, 2023, 08:28:39 pm
Ho HO!Roughly half kilometer elevation between Bakhmut river (ostensibly current Russian position per deepstatemap) and Chasiv yar (reportedly Ukraine's artillery's position) so an uphill battle if you pleaseI suspect that going against fortified positions in the mountains would be as bloody as doing so in Urban terrain.The surrounding terrain is hilly, but it's hardly mountains.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 12, 2023, 09:15:19 pm
Roughly half kilometer elevation between Bakhmut river (ostensibly current Russian position per deepstatemap) and Chasiv yar (reportedly Ukraine's artillery's position) so an uphill battel if you pleaseCheck your map again. It's more like 500 feet. >If< you assume the worst possible route of advance. But they already control elevated positions west of Krasna Hora and south of Chasiv Yar.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 01:00:51 am
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Post by: jipehog on March 13, 2023, 02:11:12 am
Check your map again. It's more like 500 feet. >If< you assume the worst possible route of advance. But they already control elevated positions west of Krasna Hora and south of Chasiv Yar.Damn imperial old and new, it is ft. Strongpoint were 100% correct. But do you think the terrain doesn't favor Ukraine? or that Russia is likely to attempt finish the encirclement or push north west as I heard?
Here is rough sketch of current position per latest deepstate:
(https://i.imgur.com/0jGVl1H.png)
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 13, 2023, 02:23:23 am
This assumes that the situation hasn't fundamentally changed by then. We saw last year that Ukraine is fully capable of letting the enemy focus on a single strongpoint in the defensive lines, then exploiting that preoccupation to launch major offenses that rip through the Russian lines like a hot chainsaw through butter. The next offensive won't single-handedly win the war, but if it follows previous patterns it is very likely that significant chunks of territory will be liberated.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 02:48:06 am
Also, keep in mind that the very same soft, wet ground makes any retreat complicated, heavy equipment will need to be abandoned.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 13, 2023, 04:32:59 am
Post by: KittyTac on March 13, 2023, 04:52:00 am
Navalny is a clown. He is an useful clown (to the opposition cause), but still a clown. Would do nothing against the oligarchs even if he or his followers somehow ended up in power, ensuring Russia would remain or turn back in short order to the same hellhole. I support the relatively disorganized socialist/neocommunist opposition more tbh. Whatever they bring can't be worse.У нас в России есть такая традиция - каждые 100 лет наступать на те же грабли.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 13, 2023, 04:56:16 am
Post by: jipehog on March 13, 2023, 05:53:58 am
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.It is not necessarily wrong. There are a lot of people in Russia who don't support Putin, who knew his narrative are pure BS from day one, and were helpless todo anything but watch as their whole lives go down the drain. Ever been in inevitable car accident, like where you stand in jam watching in the rear mirror as some idiot getting closer and closer and closer.. only its your life..
Regardless it is smart politics. At this point the goal is to undermine Putin support, once people stop dying we can worry about being pedantics, and separating the regime from the people is a simple way to give some an alternative and avoid getting others backs up. Conversely this is exactly the opposite of Putin narrative, who from the start tried to paint his invasion as more inclusive global struggle i.e. Russian's war, Russian Mir, east vs west, religious western moral decadents etc.
Also keep in mind the vagueness of the term Russian, which refers to both those living in Russia and ethnic group of the East Slavic peoples in general. When the war broke out it led to many anti Russian sentiments, consequently there were example kids of immigrants from USSR, who spoke Russian but were born outside of Russia who had their kids picked on at school because they are Russians.
If the city falls (and remember that it has been falling Any Day Now for more than six months), the forces in the city are very likely fully prepared to defend their homes a little further to the east.The question is how far back.. It's not just a matter of digging some trenches, there is a line to maintain, question of logistics, finding good natural or otherwise barriers that set the odds in our favor.
if it follows previous patterns it is very likely that significant chunks of territory will be liberated
Very unlikely that it will, but I am hopping for a new rabbit.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 13, 2023, 06:26:38 am
On the other hand it should be acknowledged that like half of us or more are Z-ombified and should share the blame for helping Putin stay in power. But people like I and KT should not be blamed and I will die on this hill. We had no part in this and can't change anything. Hate it when people act like I am somehow at fault for this.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 06:37:17 am
Quote
It is not necessarily wrong. There are a lot of people in Russia who don't support Putin, who knew his narrative are pure BS from day one, and were helpless todo anything but watch as their whole lives go down the drain. Ever been in inevitable car accident, like where you stand in jam watching in the rear mirror as some idiot getting closer and closer and closer.. only its your life..
Some people in Russia are not free. Quite a lot, actually. But Russia itself is free. There is no external will imposed on it.
Quote
At this point the goal is to undermine Putin support, once people stop dying we can worry about being pedantics, and separating the regime from the people is a simple way to give some an alternative and avoid getting others backs up
It is like saying in the midst of WW2: At this point, the goal is to undermine Hitler's support.
What good will it do if Putin will be replaced by someone more competent if Russia will retain the same ideology? They'll try again in a few years or decades.
Quote
Conversely this is exactly the opposite of Putin narrative, who from the start tried to paint his invasion as global affair i.e. Russian's war, Russian Mir, east vs west, religious western moral decadents etc.But this is the truth. This is the war of Russia vs the West. It is an attempt to spread Russian Mir. The only thing Putin is lying about here is who actually desires this war.
Quote
consequently there were example kids of immigrants from USSR, who spoke Russian but were born outside of Russia who had their kids picked on at school because they are Russians.What a pity! They are bullied, I, who reads news about killed and maimed children with grim regularity, am very sympathetic to their immense struggle.
BTW, in most cases bullying happens not for merely being Russians but for openly supporting Russia and its genocidal war. Russian diaspora all over the world is extremely pro-war.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 13, 2023, 06:40:35 am
Ukraine has a "Freedom of Russia Legion". What do you think the name alludes to?
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 07:09:37 am
I think you're being pedantic and that by "Russia" they mean "Russian people, specifically those not responsible for the war".
Ukraine has a "Freedom of Russia Legion". What do you think the name alludes to?
To the very same concept and I also dislike that this name pushes the same narrative. If those guys really expect that the majority of Russians will treat them as liberators from the evil Putin and not traitors... They are in for a surprise. If they want their country to change, they need to force their country to change (not Putin or his regime).
This legion is weird and sends mixed political signals probably because it is composed of very different people with quite different agendas.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 13, 2023, 07:29:57 am
Post by: anewaname on March 13, 2023, 10:41:29 am
If violence taught them that screaming their patriotism will stop them from being hurt, they will continue to scream their patriotism when there is no violence.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 13, 2023, 11:39:09 am
This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 11:58:20 am
This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
How Molotovs are even related? I dislike the narrative of good Russians oppressed by evil Putin's regime. And this definately-given-for-the-quality-of-the-documentary Oscar promotes this narrative.
Post by: jipehog on March 13, 2023, 12:21:08 pm
I am not sure that strongly worded condemnation from Hollywood is what is going to bring down a nuclear power, current within might.QuoteAt this point the goal is to undermine Putin support, once people stop dying we can worry about being pedantics, and separating the regime from the people is a simple way to give some an alternative and avoid getting others backs upIt is like saying in the midst of WW2: At this point, the goal is to undermine Hitler's support.
What good will it do if Putin will be replaced by someone more competent if Russia will retain the same ideology? They'll try again in a few years or decades.
So far sanctions had lackluster effect and Russia is keep gearing up for the long war.
I am talking about Russian propaganda trying to increase public support by presenting Putins attempt to make imperialisms great again as defensive war of no choice waged against all Russians (common tactic e.g. Erdogan does this with muslims) and shared history values narratives against to bring former glory back against his liberal gay elite satanist. But yes you could say that the latest installment in Putin's campaign to preserve his regime, end American hegemony, and reinstate Russia as a global power has failed to meet its objectives and devolved to a global conflict.QuoteConversely this is exactly the opposite of Putin narrative, who from the start tried to paint his invasion as global affair i.e. Russian's war, Russian Mir, east vs west, religious western moral decadents etc.But this is the truth. This is the war of Russia vs the West. It is an attempt to spread Russian Mir. The only thing Putin is lying about here is who actually desires this war.
BTW, in most cases bullying happens not for merely being Russians but for openly supporting Russia and its genocidal war. Russian diaspora all over the world is extremely pro-war.Maybe, but I can tell you that bulling kids that didn't know that Russia exist, certainly increased sentiments not in support of Russia but against the west.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 13, 2023, 12:52:13 pm
Navalny is openly racist, openly Russian-imperialist. He's not "decent". He's the exact same shit.This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 12:54:45 pm
Quote
I am not sure that strongly worded condemnation from Hollywood is what is going to bring down a nuclear power, current within might.Not it wouldn't. It has some modest effect on public opinion and it is a rather minor thing if taken in isolation. But I see a trend, a narrative that is harmful not only to my country but to the world.
Instead of saying "Russia is a deeply immoral society that needs some serious fixing." we are getting cartoonish "remove Putin('s regime) and all will be cool and good in no time!"
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 13, 2023, 01:31:57 pm
In the end the question becomes whether you want to make things better or wring out some personal emotional satisfaction. Russian society needs guidance and time to reform.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 13, 2023, 02:02:36 pm
Navalny is a step in the right direction. He is against the war, acknowledged Crimea is Ukrainian not too far back. If that is an opposition figure that is palatable to Russians then so be it.He's full of shit. The swerve about Crimea is too little, too late, and too convenient. In the past he defended the Russianness of Crimea. He's alsoludicrously racist against Georgians and defended the military intervention in Georgia. He's really pretty bad
In the end the question becomes whether you want to make things better or wring out some personal emotional satisfaction. Russian society needs guidance and time to reform.
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 13, 2023, 02:08:09 pm
Spoiler: said meme (click to show/hide)
Post by: EuchreJack on March 13, 2023, 02:24:42 pm
My apologies, I didn't know.Navalny is openly racist, openly Russian-imperialist. He's not "decent". He's the exact same shit.This thread is about emotional takes, right?Pretty sure some Ukrainians said the same shit about Zelenskyy prior to his "I'm not abandoning Kiev" moment.
Well, I am very annoyed by the Oscar given to the documentary film about Navalny (and this award has nothing to do with the quality of the documentary). It is normalization of Russian crimes. Presenting Russians in the light of poor people under the heel of an evil dictator.
Navalny's wife said something along the lines "I dream one day my husband and my country will be free" and it is... a manipulation.
Russia IS free to do exactly what it wants. It is not like it is occupied by a foreign occupying power that forces it to do something Russia doesn't want. She could say "I hope one day my country won't be a bloodthirsty evil empire" or something along those lines but she didn't.
Guy seems decent. Not everyone can toss Molotovs in the street.
Post by: jipehog on March 13, 2023, 07:19:56 pm
How does saying saying that "Russia is a deeply immoral society that needs some serious fixing" is beneficial to Ukraine or the world?QuoteI am not sure that strongly worded condemnation from Hollywood is what is going to bring down a nuclear power, current within might.Not it wouldn't. It has some modest effect on public opinion and it is a rather minor thing if taken in isolation. But I see a trend, a narrative that is harmful not only to my country but to the world.
Instead of saying "Russia is a deeply immoral society that needs some serious fixing." we are getting cartoonish "remove Putin('s regime) and all will be cool and good in no time!"
Otherwise we shouldn't look at it in isolation from other currents or Russia's status as nuclear power and its war that affect millions and kills tens of thousands every month with no indication its close to an end.
If he could end the war and pull Russia out of Ukraine completely. Do you think it would matter?Navalny is a step in the right direction. He is against the war, acknowledged Crimea is Ukrainian not too far back. If that is an opposition figure that is palatable to Russians then so be it.He's full of shit. The swerve about Crimea is too little, too late, and too convenient. In the past he defended the Russianness of Crimea. He's also ludicrously racist against Georgians and defended the military intervention in Georgia. He's really pretty bad
In the end the question becomes whether you want to make things better or wring out some personal emotional satisfaction. Russian society needs guidance and time to reform.
Because USA deals with a lot of bad people. We all know that dictators are bad, except, well.. when they're kind of OK. Even terrorist have become statesman as their abhorrent ideas and actions are white washed. On the world stage some times you have to work with bad people as the only way to affect positive change and or maintain your interests.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 13, 2023, 07:46:16 pm
Because USA deals with a lot of bad people. We all know that dictators are bad, except, well.. when they're kind of OK. Even terrorist have become statesman as their abhorrent ideas and actions are white washed. On the world stage some times you have to work with bad people as the only way to affect positive change and or maintain your interests.An argument can be made that perhaps one shouldn't. That this willingness to make deals with the devil to further your own cause is what's wrong with the world. When it happens on a small scale, one runs a risk of being branded corrupt or a collaborator. But if you're large enough, it's realpolitik.
The pragmatists will call this approach naive. Others may call it principled.
Post by: KittyTac on March 13, 2023, 07:50:29 pm
If he could end the war and pull Russia out of Ukraine completely. Do you think it would matter?If my uncle had 3 balls, he'd be a pinball machine.
Post by: Robsoie on March 13, 2023, 08:20:54 pm
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-evolution-of-alexey-navalnys-nationalism
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2023, 11:38:44 pm
This old video will tell a few things about how non-racist Navalny was. It is not like I think people don't change but I don't remember actual apologies.
It is the equivalent of some American advocating for the right to bear weapons... implying that you need one should... hm... a member of a certain dark-skinned group become too aggressive.
Post by: jipehog on March 14, 2023, 02:10:15 am
Because USA deals with a lot of bad people. We all know that dictators are bad, except, well.. when they're kind of OK. Even terrorist have become statesman as their abhorrent ideas and actions are white washed. On the world stage some times you have to work with bad people as the only way to affect positive change and or maintain your interests.An argument can be made that perhaps one shouldn't. That this willingness to make deals with the devil to further your own cause is what's wrong with the world. When it happens on a small scale, one runs a risk of being branded corrupt or a collaborator. But if you're large enough, it's realpolitik.
The pragmatists will call this approach naive. Others may call it principled.
That depends on what your goal is. The way to affect change is to engage, as unsavory dealing with dictators might seem it opens doors of opportunity for further engagement, and eventually dialogue and cooperation foster change. Otherwise the alternative on the global stage is using military force, and we have seen how USA's well intentioned attempt to play global policeman went in the middle east.. Meanwhile, USA relative power is diminishing and authoritarianism is on the rise as more countries look elsewhere.
Principled approach as the unwavering adherence to some higher ideal is appealing in that it simple and easy to understand/sell to the public, unlike the pragmatic "zigzag", but the simple truth is that if you are not at the table you have no influence, worse you could be seceding the table to actors with bad influence, so as with most things in life its about find a balance between the two.
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 14, 2023, 02:47:29 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 14, 2023, 09:57:33 am
I find this game concept extremely amusing.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 15, 2023, 08:32:45 am
Heh, another wave of mobilization. My bet is that most of those will be conscripts who will sign contracts, "voluntarily".
Post by: Strongpoint on March 15, 2023, 11:58:37 am
Post by: EuchreJack on March 15, 2023, 02:23:55 pm
Poland arrested some guys who were attempting sabotage on Polish railways (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11863857/Russian-plot-sabotage-Polands-train-lines-uncovered.html)Russian Agents successfully lobby for more supplies to Ukraine!
Good job guys!
Post by: da_nang on March 15, 2023, 02:37:02 pm
Poland arrested some guys who were attempting sabotage on Polish railways (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11863857/Russian-plot-sabotage-Polands-train-lines-uncovered.html)Muscovite sabotage on Polish NATO soil? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEGo41443iI&t=41s)
Post by: King Zultan on March 16, 2023, 03:03:43 am
Post by: scriver on March 16, 2023, 03:43:01 am
Post by: KittyTac on March 16, 2023, 04:00:23 am
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2023, 04:06:20 am
Russian leadership approved aggressive actions of jets that damaged U.S. drone, U.S. officials say (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russian-leaders-approved-actions-jets-downed-us-drone-rcna75166)A lot of hemming and hawing going on if the source is true.
You don't dump fuel on a drone twice and ram it without it being an intentional attempt to bring down a drone.
As far as I'm concerned, it's an act of war. Don't let them salami tactic their way out of this.
Post by: jipehog on March 16, 2023, 05:46:49 am
https://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-russias-secret-document-for-destabilizing-moldova-230008434.html
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2023, 06:04:28 am
EDIT: US releases footage of Russian jet crashing into drone (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-64974825)"Totally accidental, guys!"
Post by: anewaname on March 16, 2023, 12:41:14 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on March 16, 2023, 01:20:14 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 16, 2023, 03:00:35 pm
As far as I'm concerned, it's an act of war. Don't let them salami tactic their way out of this.
We didn't go to war when Iran shot a drone down. We didn't go to war when China forced a manned spy plane down. We didn't go to war when the Soviet Union shot down an allied nation's airliner. Wars rarely break out over incidents this small.
Post by: Ganondworf on March 16, 2023, 03:32:58 pm
Post by: da_nang on March 16, 2023, 04:10:31 pm
An act of war is a casus belli. It doesn't mean war has to start, but you shouldn't ignore it nonchalantly by wording it as an "accident" when it clearly is anything but an accident, nor should you act like it's nothing.As far as I'm concerned, it's an act of war. Don't let them salami tactic their way out of this.
We didn't go to war when Iran shot a drone down. We didn't go to war when China forced a manned spy plane down. We didn't go to war when the Soviet Union shot down an allied nation's airliner. Wars rarely break out over incidents this small.
By giving Muscovy a stern letter or a slap on the wrist, all you're doing is emboldening them by giving in to their salami tactics. It's tantamount to appeasement.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 16, 2023, 04:13:12 pm
Post by: Eric Blank on March 16, 2023, 08:12:19 pm
Post by: Starver on March 16, 2023, 08:42:11 pm
So... Watch out for that. It might be me who is doing these things[2] that I've thought way more about than I have done for how on earth I might even gain the capabilities.
[1] This being an 'I have complete control over reality'-level of situation... If my powers are somehow less than this, I have contingency versions of the plan to fall back on, however.
[2] Which I won't spell out, just so I can maintain plausible deniability without having to change reality also to make you and the forum all forget my premature boast that I later decide I shouldn't have made.
Post by: King Zultan on March 17, 2023, 03:58:52 am
Post by: jipehog on March 17, 2023, 05:40:51 am
Obviously it is not going to lead to war but it can be leveraged in various forms that we may or may not read about, at very least it seem like a good time to announce Poland to transfer MiG-29 jets to Ukraine within days (https://www.dw.com/en/poland-to-transfer-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine-within-days/a-65009216)
Post by: Strongpoint on March 17, 2023, 08:05:52 am
at very least it seem like a good time to announce Poland to transfer MiG-29 jets to Ukraine within days (https://www.dw.com/en/poland-to-transfer-mig-29-jets-to-ukraine-within-days/a-65009216)+10 from Slovakia
I'd very much prefer this being a thing a year ago... and F-16s... And with volunteer pilots included... but the world is imperfect.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 17, 2023, 09:55:28 am
For the Drones!
Post by: Strongpoint on March 17, 2023, 10:31:58 am
Khm... *goes into the Russian segment of the internet to enjoy explosions*
Post by: brewer bob on March 17, 2023, 10:35:41 am
While I don't believe Putin will be arrested (surprise, surprise), this news made me smile.
Post by: MorleyDev on March 17, 2023, 12:27:13 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 17, 2023, 05:20:31 pm
One of Russia's (and China's) core diplomatic goals is exposing the edifice of international law as a paper-tiger sham that only functions as a coercive implement for the US and its allies to threaten countries that aren't playing along, and the problem for the West is that... well, it kind of is. When the ICC makes a pronouncement like this, Russia predictably blows it off, and nothing happens, other nations, particularly in the global south, are watching.
The next time some African country splits down the middle in a civil war, do the rebels want more to be recognized by the UN, or by Russia? Russia wants them to be looking at Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transnistria, and asking themselves which has worked better. Similarly, when Western institutions of international law overreach and make fools of themselves, it reminds all these little countries that international courts can only hurt you if you believe in them.
You can talk about "North-Korea-ification" of Russia, but this is what "North-Korea-ification" really looks like:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/23/Diplomatic_relations_of_North_Korea.svg/800px-Diplomatic_relations_of_North_Korea.svg.png)
and you can probably count Saudi Arabia in some time soon too, based on recent news.
It's very possible that we are watching the end of international law as a concept.
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 17, 2023, 08:46:53 pm
Spoiler: tangent (click to show/hide)
Post by: hector13 on March 17, 2023, 09:55:49 pm
Post by: brewer bob on March 17, 2023, 10:06:59 pm
Quote from: ICC (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties)
123 countries are States Parties to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Out of them 33 are African States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/african-states), 19 are Asia-Pacific States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/asian-states), 18 are from Eastern Europe (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/eastern-european-states), 28 are from Latin American and Caribbean States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/latin-american-and-caribbean-states), and 25 are from Western European and other States (https://asp.icc-cpi.int/states-parties/western-european-and-other-states).
Edit. Though this of course doesn't mean that parties can't just ignore the warrant and that it may reinforce thoughts that the ICC is biased.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 17, 2023, 10:41:40 pm
Quote
It's very possible that we are watching the end of international law as a concept.
Good riddance then. Imitation of international law does no good, countries being aware that they need to build up their military to defend themselves is better than a false sense of security.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 18, 2023, 01:16:55 am
Everything else (economic might, military might, cultural and ideological influence, alliances, demographics, etc) is nowhere close to this status.
So I doubt that countries of the Global South will be very interested in choosing Russia over the USA like it often was the case with the USSR. China is a much better choice if the West is not an option.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 18, 2023, 01:52:46 am
So I doubt that countries of the Global South will be very interested in choosing Russia over the USA like it often was the case with the USSR. China is a much better choice if the West is not an option.Those are the same choice, though.
I'm definitely not under the illusion that Russia is a great power. It's a junior partner on Team China, which is why I explicitly referenced China in that what Russia wants is really what China wants.
The point about "looking to Russia vs. the UN for recognition", though, is that that's very much the position Russia wants to be in, and as long as it continues implicitly to have China's backing, it can be.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 18, 2023, 02:11:00 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 18, 2023, 02:12:24 am
I am not sure that Russia is willing to play the role of a junior partner, it has too many ambitions for that. It is like China never liked the role of the USSR's junior partner.I don't think it is but I don't see how it has a choice.
I mean… the US doesn’t acknowledge the authority of the ICC either, so I don’t think it’s as big a deal as MaxSpin makes out.Don't you think that's part of the problem, though? To be sure, the ICC is just one institution that Russia and China want to discredit, and not by any stretch the most important, but the fact that its credit is already so low makes it an especially weak link. The way the US just ignores it while everyone else is expected to care what it says is exactly the point they'd make.
But maybe I didn't convey well enough that the ICC itself isn't really the big deal, it's just a small pebble in the avalanche. I don't think it's directly causing the end of international law as a concept. I think it's just an example of that ongoing process.
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 18, 2023, 04:47:20 am
Post by: KittyTac on March 18, 2023, 06:37:09 am
"Russian warship, go fuck yourself" = "No"
Post by: brewer bob on March 18, 2023, 09:26:15 am
We are the Fascist Italy
Let's then hope Putin meets the same kind of end as Mussolini.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 18, 2023, 01:11:52 pm
I mean… the US doesn’t acknowledge the authority of the ICC either, so I don’t think it’s as big a deal as MaxSpin makes out.Indeed
Post by: anewaname on March 18, 2023, 04:24:53 pm
There are reasons the USA won't join the ICC, besides the Afghanistan stuff. It gets down to there being too many US politicians whose donors have economic interests in other countries where actions are taken that would be illegal if those actions were taken in the USA.
Post by: MorleyDev on March 18, 2023, 04:40:49 pm
If there was enough of a will it could be done, but well...see above for why there isn't that.
Post by: King Zultan on March 19, 2023, 01:28:36 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 19, 2023, 01:44:45 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 19, 2023, 01:58:45 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 20, 2023, 09:23:58 am
I am not sure that Russia is willing to play the role of a junior partner...
Looking at how they welcome their
Post by: jipehog on March 20, 2023, 09:50:58 am
That ICC thing sounds like it exists to make people feel better while it doesn't actually do anything for the most part.It could be a sign that west has lost any hope of finding compromise with Putin, finalizing the break. Otherwise, it is mostly Symbolic measure, however between casting Putin as a war criminal and the ICC warrant (as impotent as it is) it could help build up Putin's isolation.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 20, 2023, 05:31:01 pm
The ICC is the best foundation to prevent "might is right" and "ethnic-genocide" groups from committing atrocities in their own countries and in other countries (through overt war or through subversive actions). It focuses on activity that should be condemned in all societies.It's a consistent stumbling block though which tends to make the world a worse place. Like the league of nations, the USA has the real power to make moral international law carry weight. And like the league of nations, its absence is sorely noted. You end up with situations where the USA is accusing China of breaking the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea by building these coral reef bases in the SCS but then the USA is one of the few non-landlocked nations left who is yet to sign it - it becomes all too easy then for China or Russia to point out "rules for me and rules for thee" and be 100% correct. It may not be idealism to suggest that any real first step towards a rule of law based international diplomacy starts with the most powerful democracy following those rules
There are reasons the USA won't join the ICC, besides the Afghanistan stuff. It gets down to there being too many US politicians whose donors have economic interests in other countries where actions are taken that would be illegal if those actions were taken in the USA.
Post by: jipehog on March 21, 2023, 01:12:52 am
[..]
One of Russia's (and China's) core diplomatic goals is exposing the edifice of international law as a paper-tiger sham that only functions as a coercive implement for the US and its allies to threaten countries that aren't playing along, and the problem for the West is that... well, it kind of is. When the ICC makes a pronouncement like this, Russia predictably blows it off, and nothing happens, other nations, particularly in the global south, are watching.
[..]
I didn't agree with much of your framing of that post, but yes that is the narrative Russia is using as part of its (and Chinas) boarder strategic objective and influencing the Global south is high on its agenda. The recent 'grain' deal is in part used by Russia as a play for the global south hearts and minds.
Meanwhile Chinese recent talk of "peace", falls inline with its pro-Russia neutrality stance and isn't something that Ukraine or the West wants but is something that much of the global south desires, which feels the world economic woes much more acutely than the west.
Post by: King Zultan on March 21, 2023, 03:40:17 am
Post by: heydude6 on March 21, 2023, 05:51:49 pm
There’s little one can do to make up for remorselessly causing ecological damage
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 21, 2023, 06:11:25 pm
America likely has no hope of winning over the global south. They are the ones who will be the most affected by climate change and America/The-West-as-a-whole are the main causes of it.
There’s little one can do to make up for remorselessly causing ecological damage
If we're talking about that, China and the petrostates like Russia are at best complicit in that.
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 21, 2023, 06:17:59 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on March 22, 2023, 11:30:17 am
Footage is emerging of tanks being hauled out of Russian storage and heading West.
T-54s - which entered production in 1946. The ones I've seen pictures of on trains look like fairly early models as well.
I doubt those will be used as frontline tanks, some kind of conversion or use as a (crappy) indirect-fire artillery is more likely. But you never know.
I expected to see T-72-level stuff imported from China or North Korea (also China) before this and it is really good news that we see none so far.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 22, 2023, 11:33:06 am
I doubt those will be used as frontline tanks, some kind of conversion or use as a (crappy) indirect-fire artillery is more likely. But you never know.From Russian military bloggers, there are already reports of tanks being used as indirect artillery, which is a problem because tank barrels wear out quickly when overused like this and they don't have enough replacement barrels, so their accuracy goes to shit over time. They also have this exact same problem for artillery barrels too; not enough barrels, too many shots fired, accuracy goes down - so more shots are needed to achieve even less, wearing out more barrels in a positive feedback loop that only makes Russia's logistics problems worse and worse
I expected to see T-72-level stuff imported from China or North Korea (also China) before this and it is really good news that we see none so far.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 22, 2023, 12:50:11 pm
But the largest problem is exhaustion. Many units got a year of constant combat with little to no rotation and it shows. Exhausted people make costly mistakes. Fresh units can't come soon enough.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 23, 2023, 08:35:16 am
The trade-off being that they're now going to be refurbished M1A1s instead of new M1A2s. And I still think 30ish tanks in autumn-winter, after what's likely to be the most important phase of the fighting, when you have thousands in storage - is a joke.Abramses are much more political than a practical decision. Leopards are way better logistically speaking.
Also, Bradleys are already coming and I think those are far more needed on the frontline and those are coming, I heard rumors that some are already near the frontlines.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 25, 2023, 05:00:08 am
Artillery barrels are also a big problem on our side. General wear and tear is not a joke either.How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion), USA 6,000 for this year (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/) and 30,000 for the Europeans this year (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/02/eu-doubles-train-ukraine-troops/). Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults
But the largest problem is exhaustion. Many units got a year of constant combat with little to no rotation and it shows. Exhausted people make costly mistakes. Fresh units can't come soon enough.
Abramses are much more political than a practical decision. Leopards are way better logistically speaking.It's also better for Ukraine to rely on European tanks, at least until the next American election result is confirmed. The USA Republican party is starting to show some divides between the interventionists, the isolationists and the Russian friendly factions
Also, Bradleys are already coming and I think those are far more needed on the frontline and those are coming, I heard rumors that some are already near the frontlines.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 25, 2023, 05:07:59 am
How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion), USA 6,000 for this year (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/) and 30,000 for the Europeans this year (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/02/eu-doubles-train-ukraine-troops/). Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults
That's generally not how this kind of foreign aid works - you train the instructors who then train the people who are going to be going into combat. You wind up with a far greater number of trained personnel that way, because you're not throwing away the core training cadre.
Quote
It's also better for Ukraine to rely on European tanks, at least until the next American election result is confirmed. The USA Republican party is starting to show some divides between the interventionists, the isolationists and the Russian friendly factions
Don't put too much stock in this - the isolationists and the pro-Russia idiots (who are essentially the same people) are a mostly ignored minority. If somehow only Republicans were allowed to vote, you'd still be getting veto-proof majorities in favor of aiding Ukraine. This is the most united Americans have been on a foreign relations issue since 2001.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 25, 2023, 05:21:57 am
That's generally not how this kind of foreign aid works - you train the instructors who then train the people who are going to be going into combat. You wind up with a far greater number of trained personnel that way, because you're not throwing away the core training cadre.That's how it worked from 2014-2022 with Operation Orbital (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orbital) where the UK focused on training medical training, logistics, intelligence analysis and infantry training (https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/24/britain-to-send-military-advisers-to-ukraine-cameron). But when the war broke out focus shifted away from training instructors & NCOs on generalist lines towards filling Ukraine's immediate skill gaps. The UK's successor program Operation Interflex (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Interflex) as well as the American (https://time.com/6246181/patriot-training-ukraine-russia/) and Polish training efforts (https://www.gov.pl/web/national-defence/polish-soldiers-train-ukrainian-tank-crews-on-leopards)have focused on getting brigades of combined arms units trained with advanced western equipment as quickly as possible. Part of this is also important politically, as both Poland (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/09/polish-president-calls-for-training-of-ukrainian-pilots-to-operate-f-16-fighter-jets-cnn/) and UK (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-train-ukrainian-fighter-pilots/) have pushed for training Ukrainian fighter pilots, which is an obvious and necessary precursor to sending western jets to Ukraine as quickly as possible
Quote from: https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-and-france-at-odds-over-military-training-for-ukrainians/
LONDON — They come to the U.K. in their thousands — Ukrainians from every walk of life, in urgent need of military training to protect their homeland.Of course Macron would -_-
From lawyers to bricklayers, they are flown in from across Ukraine. The aim is to turn the new recruits into soldiers in just five weeks, providing basic military skills — infantry tactics; weapons handling; patroling; first aid; evacuation — before they return to fight on the frontline.
“We set a target of 10,000 troops — but through this pipeline, I envisage that we will continue to train as many as are sent by Ukraine,” he told the U.K. parliament last week. “We are already seeing this make a difference to the combat effectiveness of Ukraine.”
On the other side of the English Channel, the picture is very different.
France — western Europe’s other great military power — has decided against launching a mass training scheme of Ukrainian soldiers, an adviser to the French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said, in line with French President Emmanuel Macron’s “wish to remain a ‘balancing power.’”
According to official French government figures, France has trained a grand total of 40 Ukrainian soldiers since the war began, chiefly on the use of French Caesar self-propelled guns.
“Emmanuel Macron was very clear — Ukraine will and must win, but Russia must not be humiliated,” the adviser said. “Our line is to show our solidarity with Ukraine to help her towards victory — but if not, to be able to play a role when the conflict stops.”
Don't put too much stock in this - the isolationists and the pro-Russia idiots (who are essentially the same people) are a mostly ignored minority. If somehow only Republicans were allowed to vote, you'd still be getting veto-proof majorities in favor of aiding Ukraine. This is the most united Americans have been on a foreign relations issue since 2001.I hope so. Polling does show that Republican and Democrat voters are still broadly united in supporting Ukraine, my worry is that if the Republicans won under someone like Trump, that even those Republicans in favour of supporting Ukraine would rather support their party than support their favoured foreign policy choice "rather be Russian than a democrat" mentality
Post by: Strongpoint on March 25, 2023, 08:42:48 am
How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-extends-ukraine-military-training-to-pilots-and-marines-as-president-zelenskyy-makes-first-visit-to-the-uk-since-russian-invasion), USA 6,000 for this year (https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/) and 30,000 for the Europeans this year (https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/02/02/eu-doubles-train-ukraine-troops/). Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults
It is hard to tell how deep our reserves are but this goes beyond guys who are training abroad. Some of the new units are armed exclusively with captured Russian\repaired Ukrainian\formerly Eastern European hardware and those are trained locally or in Eastern Europe with far more modest media coverage. Also, there are troops that stand in places like the Belarus border and some of the exhausted units may be moved there when\if the offensive start.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 25, 2023, 02:13:09 pm
It is hard to tell how deep our reserves are but this goes beyond guys who are training abroad. Some of the new units are armed exclusively with captured Russian\repaired Ukrainian\formerly Eastern European hardware and those are trained locally or in Eastern Europe with far more modest media coverage. Also, there are troops that stand in places like the Belarus border and some of the exhausted units may be moved there when\if the offensive start.I hope so. I remember some British troops noting very wryly in WWI that they got moved away from the brutal fighting in the western front to a more quiet part of the trenches. That segment of the trenches was quiet because the Germans were going to attack there next and wanted to give the false impression they had lost interest. Hopefully there'll be no northern attack in such case :P
I'm still also incredibly surprised at the Russian copium going on, with Russian hosts even responding to mockery of their T-54 desperation by saying yes indeed they would mobilise T-34 museum pieces if they had to. When do you stop and think "maybe we are embarking on a path of self-destruction?"
Also I looked up the maxim gun usage in Ukrainian lines and I think there is something very poetic about how this one machine gun has managed to see 140 years of combat against Russia, from the Russo-Japanese war all the way to its invasion of Ukraine. So I made a quick poem
Quote
From Nicholas to Stalin and Putin beyondIt is my hope that Russia wakes up from its dreams of imperial conquest and instead learns how to look after her own people so that in 100 years time, the maxim gun can finally retire
Great kings and dictators cast rocks at small ponds
Dreaming of Empires forever in sun
Woken by the chatter of the old maxim gun
Post by: Strongpoint on March 25, 2023, 02:45:05 pm
Quote
I'm still also incredibly surprised at the Russian copium going on, with Russian hosts even responding to mockery of their T-54 desperation by saying yes indeed they would mobilise T-34 museum pieces if they had to. When do you stop and think "maybe we are embarking on a path of self-destruction?"
Germany of late 1944 and early 1945 tells us that copium can continue till the bitter end. And this is why I think that this war will continue for many years because Russia doesn't even face any danger of being counterinvaded. There will be no forces to surround Moscow and assault it to force surrender...
Post by: Telgin on March 25, 2023, 03:04:53 pm
People keep throwing around the adage that manpower is cheap to Russia, and it's starting to seem that's true. Again, there's an absolute limit on how many people they can waste. I expect that Russian society would protest well before they literally get to the point that they can't get more people to throw at the war, but at what point? 250,000 KIA? 1,000,000? More? At what point does the future economic damage dissuade them if not the human cost?
Unless something drastic happens, like Putin dying and that miraculously leading to the new leadership calling everything off, I don't see this ending in the next few years.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 25, 2023, 03:22:10 pm
Post by: Eric Blank on March 25, 2023, 08:08:45 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 25, 2023, 10:57:13 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 25, 2023, 11:06:35 pm
Here's a q: will a bank collapse lead to faltering EU support?Probably, but then again most anything bad will lead to faltering EU/US support.
Pro-Russian zombies will use literally anything to lower support.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 25, 2023, 11:25:26 pm
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops. And ships. Need to take out the black sea fleet so Russia can't cut them off from the sea or protect Crimea from a counterinvasion
Ships require crew and Ukraine always had a token navy. There is no way that a proper navy can be created during a war, this process takes years. And you need to base ships somewhere and Russia has ability to strike Odessa\Mykolaiv with relative ease. No, ships are a bad idea. Naval drones are more practical solution
Also what Ukraine really needs is not troops, tanks, aircrafts... Ukraine needs ballistic and cruise missiles and permission to use those on targets in Russia destroying logistics and the ability to strike from across the border. But this is seen as an unacceptable escalation by our allies....
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 26, 2023, 09:50:25 am
That's something I worry about too. There has to be a breaking point even without that, but it's not at all clear to me where that is.There's also the factor that an outsized burden is placed upon ethnic minorities within Russia, and the sheer waste that is occurring as a result of all these men being killed for no reason / forced to flee abroad. It's fairly symbolic that a neurosurgeon was mobilised for example, and used as regular infantry, not even as a doctor (https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/10/31/russias-bashkortostan-the-only-childrens-neurosurgeon-in-city-of-sterlitamak-drafted-under-partial-mobilisation-en-news). But because he's bashkir he's fair game to be used in suicidal attacks because he won't be missed in Moscow or St. Petersburg, despite the fact that such peoples will be sorely missed in Russia
People keep throwing around the adage that manpower is cheap to Russia, and it's starting to seem that's true. Again, there's an absolute limit on how many people they can waste. I expect that Russian society would protest well before they literally get to the point that they can't get more people to throw at the war, but at what point? 250,000 KIA? 1,000,000? More? At what point does the future economic damage dissuade them if not the human cost?
Unless something drastic happens, like Putin dying and that miraculously leading to the new leadership calling everything off, I don't see this ending in the next few years.
Also what Ukraine really needs is not troops, tanks, aircrafts... Ukraine needs ballistic and cruise missiles and permission to use those on targets in Russia destroying logistics and the ability to strike from across the border. But this is seen as an unacceptable escalation by our allies....This has always been a curious point for me, since I never really understood the American hesitance to allow long range weapon systems to strike targets in Russia even though it will be necessary to actually win the war. Ukrainians have already shelled Russian settlements like Belgorod so it's not like it would be radical for Ukrainian troops to cross the Russian border to exploit weaknesses or for railway lines/logistic hubs/naval & air bases to be struck. I suppose the big worry from top NATO generals would be - if Ukraine gains the ability to target Russian nuclear deterrence sites, are the Russians going to be able to distinguish between a cruise missile strike on an air base or a pre-emptive strike against a nuclear armed site?
The UK is odd in that the MOD says it won't rule out allowing strikes in Russia (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-not-ruling-out-giving-ukraine-missiles-to-reach-russia/) whilst the PM says its official stance is to "discourage" using British cruise missiles to strike Russia (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/20/ukraine-should-have-no-problem-arming-its-old-soviet-jets-with-new-british-cruise-missiles/). I wonder how much of that is a hard red line or just a "you can strike Russia but we can't be seen to encourage this" posturing. It is probably also only a matter of time before the USA gives Ukraine cruise missiles, but I never can really predict what the Americans do. There is also talk of Ukraine manufacturing its own domestic cruise missiles, which it would be free to use however it wished, but I think that's just talk for now, or else is being kept secret because I can't find any reliable source confirming this is underway.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 26, 2023, 10:16:23 am
Quote
but I never can really predict what the Americans do
Pfff. It is easy.
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else. (I know that this quote is misattributed, but I still love it)
Post by: jipehog on March 26, 2023, 10:33:01 am
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops.
According to Zelensky: "No Ukraine offensive without more weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952)"
I don't know if it is true. But otherwise I heard that:
(1) Ukraine remained in Bakhmut is to keep Russia engaged, fearing that pulling out would lead to Russian operational stop like we seen northward.
(2) Ukraine will only have a chance for one counter attack in the near future.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 26, 2023, 01:52:35 pm
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops.
According to Zelensky: "No Ukraine offensive without more weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952)"
I don't know if it is true. But otherwise I heard that:
(1) Ukraine remained in Bakhmut is to keep Russia engaged, fearing that pulling out would lead to Russian operational stop like we seen northward.
(2) Ukraine will only have a chance for one counter attack in the near future.
1) "We are totally not going to attack" is not something one should ever take seriously.
2) As far as I understand, the decision to hold Bakhmut is based on the idea that should Ukrainian forces fall back to another line of defense, there is a good chance that Russian forces wouldn't continue their advance and instead go into the rest, dig up and recover mode making future offensive harder.
3) I don't think that there is only one chance for a counterattack. Yes, delaying it will allow Russia to better prepare for defense but the opposite is also true. Anywhere from mid-April to mid-September is good weather for an attack
4) I am confident that there will be an offensive. We have no other choice but to rotate troops and it would be... weird to move in fresh troops and not attack when you face either exhausted enemy troops or their own rotation which is of much lower quality
5) What many Ukrainians overestimate is the scale of the offensive. Many here naively assume that we will push all Russian forces away in a few months which is... wishful thinking. I expect that there will be one main strike and several secondary ones and even if everything will go well, gains will be moderate, perhaps one important city like Melitopol or Berdyansk or even Mariupol
6) I won't be surprised if the offensive won't happen in April and will be delayed to May or June
7) Note that we will replace existing units with guys equipped with new hardware, decent training, and eagerness to fight. Russia will rotate in a mobilized, poorly-trained, and unmotivated mobilized crowd armed with various hastily refurbished Soviet stuff from stockpiles.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 26, 2023, 02:02:17 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on March 26, 2023, 02:13:56 pm
The context for the bit about one chance at an offensive that is being talked about is that the Western support might dry up when faced with little gains and nothing but a prolonged WWI-style slugfest in sight.
I seriously doubt that it will dry up completely. The western military-industrial complex is gearing up and rubbing its hands expecting profit. I doubt that their lobby will allow the support to go to zero. At the very least, ammunition-producing lines will keep working.
Note that the Russian ability to supply its troops isn't improving either. There is a finite amount of Soviet junk to refurbish.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 27, 2023, 08:42:26 pm
The UK is odd in that the MOD says it won't rule out allowing strikes in Russia (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-not-ruling-out-giving-ukraine-missiles-to-reach-russia/) whilst the PM says its official stance is to "discourage" using British cruise missiles to strike Russia (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/02/20/ukraine-should-have-no-problem-arming-its-old-soviet-jets-with-new-british-cruise-missiles/). I wonder how much of that is a hard red line or just a "you can strike Russia but we can't be seen to encourage this" posturing. It is probably also only a matter of time before the USA gives Ukraine cruise missiles, but I never can really predict what the Americans do. There is also talk of Ukraine manufacturing its own domestic cruise missiles, which it would be free to use however it wished, but I think that's just talk for now, or else is being kept secret because I can't find any reliable source confirming this is underway.
Ukraine has a number of indigenous weapons systems. Before the invasion, their Сапсан ballistic missile was scheduled to go into production in early 2022. While there's been no official announcement that the system is operational, it has been floated as a possibility for some of the mysterious explosions in Russian territory. There's also rumors that they're converting their successful Neptune shipkiller (which claimed Moskva) into something more suitable for ground attack.
It is very important to keep in mind that Ukraine's dependence on Western arms is not because they can't make their own weapons, or because their weapons suck. Most of their domestic weapons systems are as good as any non-American system in the same class. They just can't keep up with the needs of combat because combat is a black hole that consumes arms, lives, and treasure with a gluttony unsurpassed by any other human activity. No one is set up to replace weapons on the scale this war is using them, in large part because everybody assumed that a war like this can't happen in the modern world. Many western stockpiles are already being heavily depleted by the existing aid, and arms makers are undergoing their most rapid expansions in well over half a century as a result. The people who make NLAW, for example, are hoping (unless there's a dodgy translation in there somewhere) to make more NLAW missiles this year than were made in the previous fifteen years since it was first adopted.
Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops.
According to Zelensky: "No Ukraine offensive without more weapons (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65075952)"
I don't know if it is true. But otherwise I heard that:
(1) Ukraine remained in Bakhmut is to keep Russia engaged, fearing that pulling out would lead to Russian operational stop like we seen northward.
(2) Ukraine will only have a chance for one counter attack in the near future.
The Zelensky statement is contradicted by a lot of dialogue in open sources that strongly suggest an attack is building. Zelensky could have multiple reasons for taking a "certain point of view" approach here.
1. Operational security - Any offensive will be much more successful if the Russians don't have a confident idea where it will happen, when it will happen, and what forces will be used.
2. "No offensive" statements give a strong cushion for operational delays. If everybody's expecting an all-out assault as soon as the ground hardens, failure of that to materialize can cause morale to suffer at home and confidence to weaken abroad. There are a *ton* of reasons why an assault can be delayed - bad weather that would hamper your attack, waiting for bad weather that will hamper your opponent, supply delays, a late desire to put even more of a rock into your fist, etc.
3. Ukraine needs more shit, and anything that can reasonably be used as a prybar is worth using.
If the assault goes off, he can always point to the last-delivered aid and say "those tanks/rocket launchers/artillery rounds were the aid I was talking about" to avoid loss of face.
Post by: jipehog on March 28, 2023, 12:07:09 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 28, 2023, 12:28:37 am
*if not worse
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 28, 2023, 05:18:56 pm
Ukraine had a number of new weapon systems developed during 2014-2019 period but then Ukrainians elected idiots* who were like "all those weapons are useless corruption schemes and we'll find a diplomatic solution anyway" and all those systems that were at the prototype stage or close to it, got their funding cut or eliminated.That's not very moist
*if not worse
That's not very moist at all
Post by: Strongpoint on March 29, 2023, 12:35:54 am
Ukraine had a number of new weapon systems developed during 2014-2019 period but then Ukrainians elected idiots* who were like "all those weapons are useless corruption schemes and we'll find a diplomatic solution anyway" and all those systems that were at the prototype stage or close to it, got their funding cut or eliminated.That's not very moist
*if not worse
That's not very moist at all
Most Ukrainians are in the state of "you don't criticize your government during a war" but there will be many questions asked after it. And if Zelensky is likely to have a good political future thanks to his actions during the war, his party in the parliament...
But I don't even want to speculate about the possible post-war electoral situation, It will be utter chaos and I prefer not to think about the depths of political, economical, social, and demographic crises that will hit us as soon as war is over (or merely paused)
Post by: King Zultan on March 29, 2023, 03:03:27 am
How would being moist fix the problem though?Ukraine had a number of new weapon systems developed during 2014-2019 period but then Ukrainians elected idiots* who were like "all those weapons are useless corruption schemes and we'll find a diplomatic solution anyway" and all those systems that were at the prototype stage or close to it, got their funding cut or eliminated.That's not very moist
*if not worse
That's not very moist at all
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 29, 2023, 05:08:11 am
Most Ukrainians are in the state of "you don't criticize your government during a war" but there will be many questions asked after it. And if Zelensky is likely to have a good political future thanks to his actions during the war, his party in the parliament...
But I don't even want to speculate about the possible post-war electoral situation, It will be utter chaos and I prefer not to think about the depths of political, economical, social, and demographic crises that will hit us as soon as war is over (or merely paused)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
How would being moist fix the problem though?A moist war machine is a well lubricated war machine
Post by: Starver on March 29, 2023, 07:23:32 am
Most Ukrainians are in the state of "you don't criticize your government during a war" but there will be many questions asked after it. And if Zelensky is likely to have a good political future thanks to his actions during the war, his party in the parliament...Even if he didn't start the war playing the Churchill role, he has (to us Brits, and quite deliberately so) played that card during the conflict so far, and maybe he'll get the same post-war electoral result for his pains?
But I don't even want to speculate about the possible post-war electoral situation, It will be utter chaos and I prefer not to think about the depths of political, economical, social, and demographic crises that will hit us as soon as war is over (or merely paused)
There could be worse results. It's not a bad resolution and legacy to take with him, winning the war but being gently elected out of power to become an honoured elder-statesman... Maybe he'll get back in, if he wants it, or maybe not and sit upon laurels that may well be entirely deserved.
(First things first, though. The country has to win, of course.)
Post by: jipehog on March 29, 2023, 10:34:08 am
Personally, I doubt that Ukraine domestic weapons could have played any significant role
Not sure how we got to lubricated Maoists
Post by: King Zultan on March 30, 2023, 02:26:20 am
Not sure how we got to lubricated MaoistsBut just think about how well they'll slide and how hard it would be to catch them afterward.
Post by: martinuzz on March 30, 2023, 04:50:23 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 30, 2023, 05:55:51 am
After his 12 year old daughter made an anti-war drawing at school, a Russian man has been sentenced to 2 years in a penal colony. His 12 year old daughter has been sent to psychiatric care.The real story is still bad but there are more nuances
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/28/russian-man-detained-after-daughters-anti-war-drawings-flees-house-arrest
Quote
A Russian man who was detained by police after his daughter drew anti-war pictures at school was sentenced on Tuesday to two years after being convicted of discrediting the armed force.
But in a dramatic turn of events, a court spokesperson said the man, Alexei Moskalyov, had fled house arrest overnight and his whereabouts were currently not known
Quote
Moskalyov, a single parent from the town of Yefremov, 150 miles south of Moscow, has been separated from his 13-year-old daughter since he was placed under house arrest at the start of this month and she was moved to a state-run shelter.
Quote
The family said they had faced pressure from police since last April when his daughter, a sixth-grader, refused to participate in a patriotic class at her school and made several drawings showing rockets being fired at a family standing under a Ukrainian flag and another that said “Glory to Ukraine!”
School officials at the time summoned the police, who questioned the girl and threatened her father.
Police then began examining Moskalyov’s social media activity and the father was eventually charged with discrediting the armed forces for his posts in which he called the Russian regime “terrorists” and described the Russian army as “rapists”.
Quote
According to the MSK1 news outlet, the children’s shelter was having an “emergency” meeting following the news that Moskalyov had fled.
Moskalyov’s lawyer, Vladimir Bilienko, previously told the Guardian that the girl would be moved to an orphanage if no close relative could be found who was willing to take care of her.
So tl, dr:
- he wasnt in a penal colony. He was under house arrest
- he was sentenced for his ownposts. Not for his daughters drawings (which did draw attention to him though)
- the child was in a shelter, not under psychiatric care
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 30, 2023, 06:01:57 am
But just think about how well they'll slide and how hard it would be to catch them afterward.Peng Deuhai's boys in Korea were legendarily slippery maoists. The ability to move hundreds of thousands of men into enemy lines whilst being observed by enemy aircraft and do so undetected is just incredible deception, organisational and maneuvre acumen
So tl, dr:Attention citizen, your patriotism levels have fallen below acceptable legal limits
- he wasnt in a penal colony. He was under house arrest
- he was sentenced for his ownposts. Not for his daughters drawings (which did draw attention to him though)
- the child was in a shelter, not under psychiatric care
Post by: martinuzz on March 30, 2023, 06:08:25 am
He was under house arrest, but he has been sentenced to 2 years penal colony. He fled his house arrest and was found and arrested today. He is probably in the penal colony now.
- he wasnt in a penal colony. He was under house arrest
- the child was in a shelter, not under psychiatric care
'Shelter', yeaah sure. That's just Russia's word for child psych ward in this case
Post by: Strongpoint on March 30, 2023, 06:52:59 am
'Shelter', yeaah sure. That's just Russia's word for child psych ward in this case
More like a prison with beatings and other forms of torture. As more and more Ukrainian children come home from that hell (the lucky ones), more and more testimonies come.
Post by: King Zultan on March 31, 2023, 04:29:10 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 31, 2023, 10:26:07 am
I'm assuming that say at the "shelter" also includes reeducation as part of it.
https://www.occrp.org/en/37-ccblog/ccblog/17474-how-two-ukrainian-teenagers-escaped-russian-captivity
And I am more horrified thinking about what happens with children 10 and younger
Post by: Strongpoint on April 02, 2023, 11:53:06 am
At least 16 people were injured in the Street Bar Cafe explosion, police say.
Videos posted on social media show an explosion and injured people on the street. It is not clear who was responsible for the blast.
Vladlen Tatarsky (real name Maxim Fomin) was a vocal supporter of Russia's war in Ukraine,
He had reported from the Ukraine frontline and gained particular notoriety last year after posting a video filmed inside the Kremlin in which he said "We will defeat everyone, we will kill everyone, we will rob everyone as necessary. Just as we like it."
Khe-khe. Killing and robing aren't safe. Who knew?
Post by: brewer bob on April 02, 2023, 01:58:35 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on April 02, 2023, 02:05:12 pm
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 02, 2023, 02:27:20 pm
Uh, that's terrorism, though.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
Presumably, one of those 16 people who were injured was not a willing participant in the Russian War Machine.
Terrorism is a sign and tool of all rebel movements. It's a sign that someone in Russia is fed up with the war. The real question is whether this is an isolated incident of a loner, or whether an actual resistance is forming. Since the attacks have been rare and piecemeal, I'm guessing small disjointed groups at the most.
The good news is that we're hearing about attacks against the idealogues, so we're seeing an anti-war anti-fascist movement. We're probably only getting info on the attacks against the civilian idealogues, as any military casualties due to partisan action can be completely hidden and government agents can be partially hidden.
"Our rebels only target civilians" is a powerful message, which Russia is unlikely to lessen with further facts.
It's good info, but maybe we avoid too much cheering for death & destruction.
Post by: jipehog on April 02, 2023, 02:33:51 pm
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.I don't know who is behind it, certainly there are far more interesting targets in Russia for Ukraine that are vital to its war effort
Otherwise lets not be naive, this is war and though its not often mentioned people blown up isn't all that uncommon especially if they are collaborators in occupied territories of Ukraine, but overall it dwarfs in comparison to the scale of Russians bombing and shelling of civilian targets in Ukraine.
Post by: Eric Blank on April 02, 2023, 03:08:46 pm
Especially as a bombing. If you wanted one guy in one cafe rebels would hurt their own image less by knifing or shooting him.
Post by: martinuzz on April 02, 2023, 03:25:15 pm
Could have been rebels, could have been an angry Russian Defense minister, could have been Ukraine, could have been disgruntled Wagner mercs, could have been anyone.
Take your pick.
Post by: Starver on April 02, 2023, 03:28:44 pm
Take your pick.Thats so Trotskyish...
Post by: Egan_BW on April 02, 2023, 04:48:47 pm
Uh, that's terrorism, though.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
Not great, but this war is no stranger to blowing up civilians for effectively no reason or gain. So this doesn't strike me as particularly new.
Post by: brewer bob on April 02, 2023, 05:53:26 pm
Do we even know it was Russian rebels? For all we know Putin could have organized it explicitly for propaganda, its not beyond him.
The FSB was what came first into my mind. Haven't several pro-war bloggers been criticizing Putin quite a bit?
Uh, that's terrorism, though.
I don't think bombing cafés is a good development.
Not great, but this war is no stranger to blowing up civilians for effectively no reason or gain. So this doesn't strike me as particularly new.
Yeah. They're in war and civilians are being bombed in that war. Not really that different from Ukrainian civilians being blown up by Russia. Though some tweets claimed there was a pro-war event or something in the café with the guy speaking (no idea if true, nor does it make it anymore justified to bomb civilians, but neither am I shedding tears if they were pro-war).
Post by: hector13 on April 02, 2023, 05:56:45 pm
As martinuzz said, it was at a cafe formerly owned by Prigozhin, in Putin’s home city. Chances are this was for him being critical of the war effort, not by Ukraine, ‘cause they gain nothing from it, militarily or otherwise.
Post by: brewer bob on April 02, 2023, 06:06:15 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 02, 2023, 06:27:02 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on April 02, 2023, 08:55:29 pm
Quote
"Cyber Front Z, a group calling itself "Russia's information troops" on Telegram, said it had hired out the cafe for the evening.- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65155075
From what Google says, they're basically a Russian Troll Farm. Honestly not surprising this kind of targetting would happen when Russia has gone out of it's way to blur away the line between official government propagandists and civilians...
Post by: Strongpoint on April 02, 2023, 10:40:57 pm
Do we even know it was Russian rebels? For all we know Putin could have organized it explicitly for propaganda, its not beyond him.
Especially as a bombing. If you wanted one guy in one cafe rebels would hurt their own image less by knifing or shooting him.
He wasn't just sitting in a cafe with a bunch of random people. It was an event with his fans who came to see him. Those people shared his views and consider war to be a good thing and I love that they got a little taste of what war really is.
Post by: Eric Blank on April 03, 2023, 12:27:42 am
Post by: EuchreJack on April 03, 2023, 01:10:06 am
Post by: King Zultan on April 03, 2023, 01:13:44 am
Post by: jipehog on April 03, 2023, 04:00:58 am
Quote
Fomin was one of the most significant Russian milbloggers with a Telegram platform of 560,000 followers and deep connections with the Wagner Group, the Kremlin, the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR), and the Russian nationalists who have been dominating the Russian information space since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Fomin’s assassination at a Wagner-affiliated bar in St. Petersburg may reveal further fractures within the Kremlin and its inner circle. Fomin was a vocal critic of the Russian military command and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD). Fomin’s death marks the first high-profile assassination of an ultranationalist milblogger in Russia since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-2-2023
Post by: martinuzz on April 03, 2023, 05:22:55 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 03, 2023, 05:45:52 am
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.
Post by: hector13 on April 03, 2023, 05:50:07 am
Apparently Navalny is involved, from his prison cell. Somehow?
Post by: martinuzz on April 03, 2023, 06:18:56 am
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.If he's smart he'll report himself to the ICC in the Hague. At least he'll get life there.
(he was found guilty of the murder of 289 people on flight MH-17 and sentenced to life imprisonment in november 2022)
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 03, 2023, 07:07:40 am
Yeah, he was from the category of "military bloggers" who are not only fully supporting the war and advocating for genocide but also call Russian generals morons and traitors who should be punished for failures.Makes one wonder if he was killed by the Russian military. It should be noted that the mil blogger killed was a veteran from Dontesk militia units, not the Russian military itself. Besides tensions between the PMCs and Russian military, there have also been tensions between the Luhansk and Donetsk militias and the Rusisan military units. Considering how the D/L militia units were used as cannon fodder by Russian high command in the 2014-2021 period of the war, it's interesting to see a role reversal:
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.
Quote from: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-donetsk-1786266
His platoon was then sent to Donetsk, but without being told that they were to join an assault brigade in the militia of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic. He said the troops had been transferred "without any orders, explanations" and were told to storm villages "without reconnaissance, without communications," or even maps.There is something truly surreal about the idea that the militias are now more combat ready than Russian units, to the point where the Russian units are being used as cannon fodder by the militia commanders! Either that, or the Russian commanders are just supposing any Russian conscripts assigned to a militia unit can be reported as a Donetsk/Luhansk casualty and not a Russian casualty
The soldier, who described himself as a senior lieutenant, said he and his comrades "do not refuse to complete objectives but only as part of the Russian armed forces"—rather than serving under the Donetsk militia.
He added: "Personnel are dying, this is all that is left of my platoon, of the whole company. It is complete b*******."
Quote from: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/03/09/sent-there-to-be-meat
One of the “LNR” and “DNR” armies’ tasks is to attack the Ukrainian military’s positions constantly along the “old” line of contact in order to tie down Ukraine’s forces there. This often requires advancing without support from artillery and armored vehicles, both of which are in short supply, leading to heavy losses.Oh lord, they brought back Stalin's blocker brigades
When manpower from the occupied territories eventually ran out, the Russian military began replacing it with draftees from Russia. The result is that their combat capability is now as low as the other units of the Russian army that are being supplemented with draftees, according to Mikhailov.
“Previously, Donetsk and Luhansk draftees were being used as expendable materials; now it’s Russian ones. They can’t fight any other way. If they don’t fundamentally change their approach, which I doubt they will, then the Russian draftees will continue to die like this,” he told iStories.
Matveyev agrees: Russia’s military command will likely continue using Russian draftees to launch assaults on Ukraine’s positions in the Donbas.
Draftees say they’ve been transferred to the “DNR’s” First Slavic Brigade, which is a part of the “People’s Militia.” In a single day, they say, they were divided into “assault brigades” and sent “to the slaughter” — to storm Ukrainian positions in Avdiivka. Anyone who refuses to join the “assault brigades,” the draftees claim, is “shot from assault rifles and BMPs [infantry fighting vehicle].” They say that one of the battalions from their regiment has been “practically completely destroyed.”
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 03, 2023, 07:58:54 am
There is something truly surreal about the idea that the militias are now more combat ready than Russian units, to the point where the Russian units are being used as cannon fodder by the militia commanders! Either that, or the Russian commanders are just supposing any Russian conscripts assigned to a militia unit can be reported as a Donetsk/Luhansk casualty and not a Russian casualtyThe militias have been integrated with the Russian military, following the annexation of the 'republics'. So it wouldn't make sense.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 03, 2023, 08:22:49 am
There is something truly surreal about the idea that the militias are now more combat ready than Russian units, to the point where the Russian units are being used as cannon fodder by the militia commanders! Either that, or the Russian commanders are just supposing any Russian conscripts assigned to a militia unit can be reported as a Donetsk/Luhansk casualty and not a Russian casualtyThe militias have been integrated with the Russian military, following the annexation of the 'republics'. So it wouldn't make sense.
While I fail to believe that any independent agency of those "militias" exists, note that this integration is rather virtual. There is strict border control, there are no Russian police or courts (and no serious effort to create them), not that many got an actual Russian passport, etc
Post by: brewer bob on April 03, 2023, 08:26:41 am
They arrested… some woman as far as I can tell (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65161095).
Apparently Navalny is involved, from his prison cell. Somehow?
He probably made the statue himself. Somehow.
Post by: Starver on April 03, 2023, 09:27:34 am
Post by: jipehog on April 03, 2023, 01:51:10 pm
Strelkov-Girkin may be next. I am amazed that he is still alive.
What about Prigozhin, didn't he recently said that he intends to run for president of Ukraine in 2024..
Post by: King Zultan on April 04, 2023, 02:58:17 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2023, 12:11:06 pm
Also, Bakhmut, amazingly, holds. Even if Ukraine is controlling like 40% of it
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 06, 2023, 02:48:05 pm
Quote from: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-trains-40000-storm-brigade-troops-counter-offensive-2023-04-05/
Border of Steel is one of eight new storm brigades totalling 40,000 soldiers that Ukraine wants to use during a counter-offensive against Russian occupiers in coming weeks or months. The units have benefited from an aggressive recruiting campaign on social media and billboards with the aim of attracting highly motivated volunteers. The new brigades, drafted by the Interior Ministry, will fight alongside regular army units bolstered by new Western battle tanks and thousands of fresh troops trained by allied armies outside Ukraine. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko told Reuters he believed Ukraine still had considerable mobilisation potential and that his recruits included women, people with no military experience and former police officers and servicemen.Well-equipped, well-led, well-motivated volunteer troops can have an overall effect well in excess of what linear numbers would indicate possible. Conversely, the Russian military bloggers complain about how the Russian high command has taken what few combat ready brigades Russia had left/reconstituted and broken them on the anvil of Bakhmut for no strategic gain. Obviously the bloggers may just be wrong/spreading disinformation but public information does corroborate two things - that Russia did send some of its best in Bakhmut, and that it did suffer horrendous losses
Quote from: https://odessa-journal.com/russia-threw-all-combat-ready-units-in-the-bakhmut-direction-but-suffers-losses/
The battle over the ruined city of Bakhmut is pinning down Russia's best units and degrading them ahead of a planned Ukrainian counter-offensive, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky has said.In the best case scenario, Russia's best remaining combat ready brigades are broken. But it's also possible that the casualties fall disproportionately on the mobilised conscripts & wagner's prisoner recruits who were just used to identify weaknesses in suicidal assaults so the actual soldiers could launch attacks with less casualties
Mykhailo Podolyak said Ukraine has decided to fight on in the small easten town, the site of the war's bloodiest battle as Moscow tries to secure its first victory in more than half a year.
"Russia has changed tactics," Mr Podolyak told Italy's La Stampa newspaper. "It has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies."
"We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive."
Russia has made Bakhmut the main target of a winter offensive involving hundreds of thousands of reservists and mercenaries. It has succeeded in capturing the eastern part of the city and the outskirts to the north and south, but has so far failed to close a ring around Ukrainian defenders there.
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 10, 2023, 06:33:44 pm
Post by: nenjin on April 10, 2023, 06:43:49 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 10, 2023, 08:12:52 pm
Has anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discordEven more hilarious: It was probably leaked by some white male ultra-conservative Republican religious zealot.
Post by: jipehog on April 11, 2023, 12:22:43 am
Has anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discordI am curious do you have link? (for the documents not the other stuff)
Post by: hector13 on April 11, 2023, 12:24:31 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2023, 06:52:45 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 11, 2023, 07:10:24 am
Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?It seems to be a mix of real documents and edited documents
Quote from: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/09/leaked-pentagon-documents-draw-denials-from-us-allies
While at least some of the images from the first leak appeared crudely doctored, the authenticity of the latest batch has not been immediately questioned. The New York Times described the leak as “a nightmare for the Five Eyes” – the intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Nah I didn't see it before it got taken downHas anyone seen the hilarious news of US intelligence on Russia being leaked on Thug Shaker Central and Wow_Mao's discord? Both are shitposting discords, and I just find it peak clown world that Russia and Ukraine may have to modify their warplans because now everyone knows what the other side knows because it got leaked on an African-American gay porn shitposting discordI am curious do you have link? (for the documents not the other stuff)
*EDIT
[quotehttps://www.ft.com/content/03fa9789-3d1b-4d06-9064-371bb4eb11eb but paywalled though]US Officials confirmed to FT that the documents appeared to be partly authentic and were classified, but said one of them showed signs of being doctored.
The apparently falsified document put Russian soldiers killed in action at between 16,000 and 17,500, with the number of Ukrainian soldier deaths at around 71,500. An original of this document, also leaked online, shows between 35,500 and 43,500 troop deaths on the Russian side and between 16,000 and 17,500 for Ukraine.
The US previously estimated Russia’s overall casualties since its full-scale invasion in February 2022 at about 200,000 wounded and killed, with Ukraine’s casualties at about 100,000.
[/quote]
This is probably the work of any number of Americans who have access to top secret documents but get really incredibly cavalier about who they share these docs with. The amount of times you see some spook bragging about their top secret escapades on twitter for cookie points is nuts. So my money is on some boomer spylord sending top secret documents to his mates to show how cool he or she is, with the docs then ending up in the hands of a shitposter who decided "eh fuck it" and uploaded it everywhere. I don't think it is intentional misdirection from the USA or Ukraine since it does give away actually useful information on Ukrainian troop dispositions (albeit 5 weeks old so maybe this is 300 IQ underwater strip poker 5d chess), and it also includes information on Israel or South Korea who aren't even all that involved in the conflict. Don't think it's the Russians either since if the Russians had this... It makes no sense to let the Ukrainians know that they know. Unless it was the Russians, and they've kept parts secret that is actually useful. Maybe they just want to embarass leaky USA?
Post by: EuchreJack on April 11, 2023, 09:47:14 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 11, 2023, 10:51:18 am
Post by: Starver on April 11, 2023, 11:45:19 am
e.g. hidden in otherwise inconseqential table 52.a(iii) there's a bit of data that is slightly different according to who the print is intended for. And/or a different unremarkable point marked in the related scatterplot that is diagram 29.b(iv). Though there are both more and less subtle systems to work out that someone had gained access to a given copy, as an initial lead to the investigation.
With a bit of thought, a form of 'error correction' can even be applied to backform from which multiple versions the snitch (being aware of the first possibility, and sought to make a composite/distorted version based upon comparing versions and trying to Id the markers) has referenced and tried to scramble the steganographic watermark for.
...actually, make it that I'd be surprised if they don't. I bet they do not necessarily with everything, but I imagine that in a significant dump of many high-value documents there are opportunities in at least some of them to make all kinds of propagatable 'flags' that enable the investigators to narrow down the ledger of individuals with opportunity from "basically everyone on the upper two stories of congress, plus a whole lotta "Three Letter Agency" folks, their wives, their wives' mothers and their wives' mothers' dogs" to some smaller group, perhaps described by a number one or two digits shorter than the initial list might have been.
(And, insofar as controlled leaks, this is one way to establish who might be uncontrollably leaking and, even if it's not something they can fully prosecute, thus can be coerced/fooled into leaking (or letting slip to the actual leakets) any 'authorised spillover'. But that's a well-practiced (but not yet guaranteed to be perfected) counter-move that I'm sure is already being done by whatever channels they can establish and (re)subvert. The value of doing it via a left-field "wikileaks" scenario is going to be an issue discussed best by the serious people in serious suits who know how that sort of thing has worked out before now...)
Post by: EuchreJack on April 11, 2023, 11:50:57 am
It may also be a controlled leak with some disinformation sprinkled in.The leak seems to discredit the current US Administration. It seems like the intent was to weaken US resolve and the current US Administration.
So the Big Question is: Controlled by Whom?
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 11, 2023, 12:02:49 pm
*EDIT
Just makes you think. If enough soldiers just said "no" at the same time this war would be over (https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-soldiers-mutiny-refuse-fight-ukraine/).
Post by: Starver on April 11, 2023, 01:08:26 pm
I suspect each person's docs have their name on the top. If there is a corner of the top document obscured, that is probably where the name would be.If that's the only clue to have, it would be stupidity itself to have released with the corner intact (or not changed to implicate another; or perhaps changed to look like it was changed to implicate another (but wasn't), if anybody is dangerously playing the long-con).
There are so many other ways to do it. (More things in heaven and Earth, EJ, than are dreamt of in our philosophy...) Some are more suited to Hollywood, yes, and others just plain clumsy. I bet there are some pretty nifty tricks, in use, though. Ignore my examples. They're trivial, possibly even would work against security-naïve people, but to trap the more savvy, who might be photocopying, uploading or even paraphrasing and recomposing..? My ideas are amateur, but there will be very serious professionals for whom this is not above their paygrade...
Post by: jipehog on April 11, 2023, 02:12:21 pm
Now the question is, are the leaked documents real and leaked illegally, or are the leaked documents fake and leaked on purpose?We don't know whether the documents in the original leak are authentic, although many believe they are. If it is some sort of long-con then they have gone to great pains to sell it.
Some early headlines suggests that the leak would compromise upcoming Ukrainian offensive, however, other suggest that it is not and mainly impact USA in other ways for example:
Quote
American officials said while the documents offer hints about U.S. methods to collect information on Russian plans, U.S. intelligence agencies do not yet know if any of their sources of information will be cut off as a result of the leak. American officials have conceded they have lost some sources of information since the war began, but the new documents appear to show that America’s understanding of Russian planning remains extensive.
But the leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraine’s war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information.
The leak has already complicated relations with allied countries and raised doubts about America’s ability to keep its secrets. After reviewing the documents, a senior Western intelligence official said the release of the material was painful and suggested that it could curb intelligence sharing. For various agencies to provide material to each other, the official said, requires trust and assurances that certain sensitive information will be kept secret.
The documents could also hurt diplomatic ties in other ways. The newly reveal intelligence documents also make plain that the U.S. is not just spying on Russia, but also its allies. While that will hardly surprise officials, making such eavesdropping public always hampers relations with key partners, like South Korea, whose help is needed to supply Ukraine with weaponry.
https://archive.is/d6FZS
Otherwise, according to bellingcat investigation (https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2023/04/09/from-discord-to-4chan-the-improbable-journey-of-a-us-defence-leak/) the original batch of documents was soon after photoshopped to show more Ukrainian KIA than Russian KIA.
Note that the documents talk about KIA not casualties and its unclear if it counts all the usual sources.
Post by: Jopax on April 11, 2023, 02:13:15 pm
What do you guys wager on the possibility of it being a way to scapegoat Putin (not that he needs any extra blame for the whole shitshow) and enable a cleaner transition to someone else after he's potentially removed from power. Think about it, who are you more likely to trust (for lack of a better word) or support in the aftermath, folks who were along for the ride while the lootin' was good and who turned on the driver the moment it started to get costly for them, or the folks claiming they were forced along by a madman who offered them no choice in the matter.
It's a fairly long shot and we probably won't ever know for sure (unless big P comes out and outs himself as being batshit crazy) but the whole thing just reeks of being off in some way. It would be the most straightforward explanation for why the whole thing began, but at the same time, way too convenient of an out for everyone involved.
That said, even if it turns out to be true, I doubt it'll do much to help some of the more involved individuals from getting off unscathed (Nuremberg style trials come to mind for some of the involved)
Post by: Strongpoint on April 11, 2023, 03:55:36 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 11, 2023, 04:37:09 pm
Speaking of potentially controlled leaks, to throw it back a bit and talk about that defecting officer with claims of Putin going off the deep end.In what way does the defector story seem "off"?
What do you guys wager on the possibility of it being a way to scapegoat Putin (not that he needs any extra blame for the whole shitshow) and enable a cleaner transition to someone else after he's potentially removed from power. Think about it, who are you more likely to trust (for lack of a better word) or support in the aftermath, folks who were along for the ride while the lootin' was good and who turned on the driver the moment it started to get costly for them, or the folks claiming they were forced along by a madman who offered them no choice in the matter.
It's a fairly long shot and we probably won't ever know for sure (unless big P comes out and outs himself as being batshit crazy) but the whole thing just reeks of being off in some way. It would be the most straightforward explanation for why the whole thing began, but at the same time, way too convenient of an out for everyone involved.
That said, even if it turns out to be true, I doubt it'll do much to help some of the more involved individuals from getting off unscathed (Nuremberg style trials come to mind for some of the involved)
It sounded to me exactly what a former Internal Security Officer's message would be upon defecting.
In fact, it reminds me of when the News Broadcaster rebelled, right down to people doubting it's authenticity because that same broadcaster was touting the propaganda before.
Those of us living in more free parts of the world just can't understand how people have to act in a totalitarian state in order to survive.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on April 11, 2023, 08:41:26 pm
Meanwhile, in Ukrainian social networks, there is a video of Russians beheading a POW with a knife. (No, I didn't watch. I value my sanity)
I did. I regret everything that led up to this moment. This is worse than Funky Town.
kill me
Post by: King Zultan on April 12, 2023, 02:40:01 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on April 12, 2023, 04:47:29 pm
I don't see how the song funky town can be anywhere near that level of awful.
...
Bless your heart.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 16, 2023, 11:17:42 am
Russia is a cancer tumor on the face of the planet, should it disappear the world will be so much better everywhere. From Europe where various neo-Nazi politicians get funding, to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...
Post by: King Zultan on April 17, 2023, 02:47:07 am
to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...I think it might be to late for removing Russia to have any effect on both of these.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 17, 2023, 03:21:55 am
to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...I think it might be to late for removing Russia to have any effect on both of these.
Well, magically removing Russia is impossible anyway. It is the emotional thread, remember?
Post by: King Zultan on April 17, 2023, 03:31:15 am
Oh I thought you meant like they lost the war, and had a massive change.to South America that will 'suddenly' have fewer problems with narcotics, to the Middle East which will have far fewer Muslim extremists, to...I think it might be to late for removing Russia to have any effect on both of these.
Well, magically removing Russia is impossible anyway. It is the emotional thread, remember?
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 17, 2023, 05:16:38 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on April 18, 2023, 02:12:54 am
I heard worse than that but this time it starts to come in the linkable form. War crimes are hard to hide in 21th century
Post by: jipehog on April 18, 2023, 07:39:06 am
Quote
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto focused on protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin from possible “sabotage” and “betrayal.” The “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto on April 17 on its newly created Telegram channel, which emphasizes protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin instead of efforts to win the war in Ukraine.[25] The manifesto claims that unspecified actors who remain in power in Russia have transferred their money and allegiance to the West and may be preparing for a coup and the ”dismemberment” of the Russia Federation. The manifesto likens the Kremlin‘s pro-war and anti-war factions to the fight between the Reds and Whites in the Russian Civil War following the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. The manifesto also claims that Russia is currently fighting the war in a mediocre way and is unable to defeat Ukraine in its current state. ISW previously assessed that Girkin and the “Club of Angry Patriots” may be attempting to advance the political goals of unnamed figures in Russian power structures who want to influence Putin’s decision making through public discourse.[26]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-17-2023
Interesting. Also in the never ending Russian publical political telenovela Prigozhin is seemingly regaining favor. I really want to know if its real or just way to deflect public attention from failures and those responsible. I haven't heard from someone serious about that arena in a while.
Post by: scriver on April 18, 2023, 05:28:43 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 18, 2023, 06:04:39 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 18, 2023, 06:11:18 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 18, 2023, 07:29:54 pm
Post by: jipehog on April 19, 2023, 12:31:39 am
That is the guy whose daughter was murdered, right?Girkin is former Russian officer and ardent nationalist, who played a key role in Russian annexation of Crimean and the Donbas since 2014, who is now a prominent pro-war milblogger and has been often quoted in westren media over his strong criticism of Russian strategy in Ukraine.
Prigozhin is a Russian oligarch, the head of wagner group, which seemingly replaced the kadyrov chechens as the blunt tool of the Russian army. Also a pro-War figure and notable critic of Russian strategy. Recently he was in the headlines over due to the public spat with Russian Defense ministry over Bakhmut offensive where wagner is taking the lead, the bombing which killed pro-war millbloger he sponsored in his restaurant, and some claims that he might challenge Putin fore presidency in 2024.
Post by: heydude6 on April 19, 2023, 10:04:17 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 19, 2023, 11:58:39 am
Meanwhile, in Ukrainian social networks, there is a video of Russians beheading a POW with a knife. (No, I didn't watch. I value my sanity)As an antidote for inhumanity here's a video of Ukrainians building a checkpoint for cats (https://imgur.com/gallery/7o4yn17)
I also still can't get over the fact that the USA leaks were not Russian spies or American disinfo. It was just some young lad trying to win an argument for a minecraft server
Post by: scriver on April 19, 2023, 12:00:06 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 19, 2023, 12:33:00 pm
The most dangerous threat to national security turned out to be... somebody who's wrong on the internet"I must do my duty and alter the course of civilisation because I KNOW I'M CORRECT"
The best part is it took a while for the papers he posted to properly circulate and go viral on the internet which means that the docs he posted didn't even convince the guys he was arguing with that he was right
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2023, 01:52:04 pm
The most dangerous threat to national security turned out to be... somebody who's wrong on the internet
Which of course needs this link (https://xkcd.com/386/)... (Whether this is the guy, or one of the others...)
Post by: Strongpoint on April 19, 2023, 02:11:22 pm
Watching a GoPro video from actual combat is a very... weird feeling
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 19, 2023, 02:28:51 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzL3rUfF_wY"War is just like Call of Duty," - British guy who joined ISIS
Watching a GoPro video from actual combat is a very... weird feeling
"The Syrian ISIS fighters keep stealing my slippers," - Also British guy who joined ISIS
Post by: Random_Dragon on April 19, 2023, 08:15:21 pm
"War is just like Call of Duty," - British guy who joined ISIS
"The Syrian ISIS fighters keep stealing my slippers," - Also British guy who joined ISIS
Man, I knew that series started to get weird after WaW or so, but that takes the cake. :P
Post by: King Zultan on April 20, 2023, 03:49:10 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 21, 2023, 09:09:23 am
Meanwhile, Russian musical videos look like this. If I didn't know better, I'd assume it is satire. It is not.
Post by: brewer bob on April 21, 2023, 09:57:50 am
https://youtu.be/NXreSAXf1V8
Meanwhile, Russian musical videos look like this. If I didn't know better, I'd assume it is satire. It is not.
...And they still claim to be the anti-fascists.
Post by: jipehog on April 21, 2023, 11:52:56 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687
Post by: Strongpoint on April 22, 2023, 06:35:51 am
https://youtu.be/NXreSAXf1V8
Meanwhile, Russian musical videos look like this. If I didn't know better, I'd assume it is satire. It is not.
...And they still claim to be the anti-fascists.
Them being fascists is not the most notable part there. We know that. The Third Reich was able to produce evil but alluring aesthetics and art which even spilled out in fiction like the Galactic Empire of Star Wars.
All Russia can do is cheap imitation that looks like a parody... when it is meant to be taken seriously.
Post by: King Zultan on April 23, 2023, 01:46:31 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 23, 2023, 02:20:45 am
I was under the impression that Russia was good at this propaganda stuff.
Russia is really-really good at certain aspects of propaganda: spaming disinformation, obscuring truth, inducing hatred, spreading fear, etc
But their motivational artistic propaganda is cringe.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 23, 2023, 02:21:40 am
Post by: EuchreJack on April 23, 2023, 04:27:30 pm
Post by: Starver on April 23, 2023, 05:22:58 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 24, 2023, 02:54:54 am
It's not just the audience that's assessed... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65347833)
Quote
In a sign of the band's influence, police searching for political subversives have even forced patrons at a bar in Moscow to sing a Lyube song, as proof that they support the government.YOU HAVE FAILED THE VIBE CHECK
Post by: EuchreJack on April 26, 2023, 04:03:16 pm
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-and-wagner-troops-clashed-deadly-shootout-ukraine-claims-2023-4?amp (https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-and-wagner-troops-clashed-deadly-shootout-ukraine-claims-2023-4?amp)
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 26, 2023, 08:21:16 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 26, 2023, 09:16:40 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 26, 2023, 11:03:55 pm
Yo @Strongpoint how is the counteroffensive going? I'm getting conflicting sources even in Western media.
I see a wonderful amount of tasty disinformation about the offensive and it warms my heart. It is how it should be done. (My favorite is - Ukraine is planning to assault Belgord in a surprise attack)
I have my opinion on where and how the counteroffensive will start but it is based (partly) on sensitive non-internet information and I, of course, won't share it. This is why I restrain myself from any speculations on how, when, where and if the offense will start.
One thing can be said for sure - The weather is uncooperative. It was a very wet April and I don't expect the ground to be hard enough until around ~10 May
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 27, 2023, 03:10:25 am
Which is likely why a number of war trackers on Google and other services have very abruptly been deleted.
Post by: scriver on April 27, 2023, 03:32:50 am
Post by: Starver on April 27, 2023, 03:55:57 am
But this is obviously very secret information, that I'm only letting you all know in order to win an Internet argument I'm currently having in PMs with Toady, who doesn't even think I have Zelenskyy's wife's phone-number (and second best handbag, but that is another story). I don't think even the US three-letter-agencies know of this, yet, as it hasn't been leaked on Instagram (which I read all of). And clearly you shouldn't let anyone in the Kremlin know, Max, so keep it schtum!
Post by: Strongpoint on April 27, 2023, 04:50:54 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 27, 2023, 06:24:07 am
Post by: jipehog on April 27, 2023, 07:53:17 am
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21948049/ukraine-russia-big-bang-counter-offensive/
Post by: Starver on April 27, 2023, 09:30:38 am
Quote from: The Sun
"ex-Brit Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon"What a title! (And what a name too, but that's not their fault, or even his. I blame the parents...)
Typical of The Sun, and its tabloid shorthand, to somehow confusingly contrast with the immediately prior description of another merely "retired" British military person. To clarify, it seems that he's still a 'Brit', just an ex-colonel. And he has a wiki page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamish_de_Bretton-Gordon), making it easy to clarify all this.
(As to the article itself, probably based upon wishful thinking, pandering to the D-Day desires of the editorial team and their prime readership, colouring and twisting the expert assessments. It'd be nice to see, but if even Sharpe and his Chosen Men (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_(TV_series)) couldn't free the whole peninsula, on their own[1], then it'll be a hard task. Even with the Army Of Drones assisting. A whole-lotta Dunkirk, and they'd need a much bigger chunk of Operation Mincemeat to somehow misdirect the local forces for long enough. Or maybe... just maybe... that's what Ukraine wants us(/Russia, by extension) to think. So which sleeve could possibly have all the aces up it? (Best not to answer that?))
[1] Though the production crew were offered a Nuclear Submarine, at one point, during some time off set during the confusion of the immediately ex-Soviet era... ;)
Post by: jipehog on April 27, 2023, 10:02:16 am
Post by: Duuvian on April 27, 2023, 11:25:58 pm
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/reframing-us-policy-debate-%E2%80%98long-war%E2%80%99-ukraine
Post by: Strongpoint on April 28, 2023, 08:48:54 am
Isn't it cute when you do war crimes openly with written public orders knowing that there will be no responsibility whatsoever?
Post by: Superdorf on April 28, 2023, 09:00:23 am
Post by: King Zultan on April 29, 2023, 01:19:04 am
Post by: hector13 on April 29, 2023, 02:14:10 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 29, 2023, 08:45:14 am
The only way the ICC gets a hold of him is if he gets ousted and not tried and/or killed in Russia.Yeah not happening. If he gets couped by the army, he will get killed. If the opposition gets it shit together and overthrows him... he will also get killed. (I know I would decapitate him personally.) There is no possible timeline where he sees the inside of a courtroom.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 29, 2023, 10:36:27 am
I love Medvedev's Twitter and appreciate his outright honesty (I remember how in the year 2008 Western Media celebrated a new progressive pro-Western young Russian president :D)
For anyone too lazy or disgusted to visit Musk's training wreck of a site, I'll quote it here:
I see no point in maintaining diplomatic relations with Poland. This state must not exist for us while there is no one but Russophobes in power and Ukraine is full of Polish mercenaries, who should be ruthlessly exterminated like stinky rats
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 29, 2023, 11:43:22 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 30, 2023, 01:27:20 am
Deleted by Twitter. Too genocidal I suppose.Yep. Quite an achievement to get that on Musk's edition of Twitter
Post by: MorleyDev on April 30, 2023, 02:19:54 pm
Yeah not happening. If he gets couped by the army, he will get killed. If the opposition gets it shit together and overthrows him... he will also get killed. (I know I would decapitate him personally.) There is no possible timeline where he sees the inside of a courtroom.
I guess he'd have to try to covertly flee Russia but be apprehended in transit or handed over by either the country he fled too? Then the choice would be to go to Hague or Russia...
Then again, in a "russian revolution" situation his options to flee are probably limited. The only country that he could be relatively certain wouldn't hand him over at that point is probably North Korea so...not like he has any good safe harbours to flee to. He has no truly 'loyalist' allies on the world stage from what I can tell, just countries whose goals can overlap with his goals or resources. Belarus is tied to Russia economically, Syria is still a power keg. China, Eritrea and North Korea are just anti-American not really pro-Russian. North Korea is the only place I can think of truly isolated enough to not hand him over. China maybe would, but they're always trying to walk a fine line that it'd complicate too much I think...
Post by: King Zultan on May 01, 2023, 03:33:31 am
Post by: jipehog on May 01, 2023, 04:19:14 am
Russian Freight Train Derails After Hitting 'Explosive Device' (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/01/russian-freight-train-derails-after-hitting-explosive-device-a80993)
- tsk tsk yet all these clumsy smoking accidents
5 Russian Villages Without Power After Ukraine Shelling (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/29/5-russian-villages-without-power-after-ukraine-shelling-a80986)
- Is this is new sort of response? I keep wishing that Ukraine somehow able to create a new formula of response which would affect Russia more greatly.
Peskov Son’s Alleged Wagner Deployment Risks Backfiring for Kremlin (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/04/28/peskov-sons-alleged-wagner-deployment-risks-backfiring-for-kremlin-a80976)
- more internal dissent is good.
Allegedly, Russia has a program to sabotage wind farms and communication cables in the North Sea. They utilized a fleet of disguised vessels carrying underwater surveillance equipment, mapping potential targets for sabotage should a conflict escalate.Submarine rescue vessel SS-750 was photographed in Baltic four days before still-unexplained explosions [..] the ship is capable of carrying out such a sabotage.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65309687
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/russian-navy-vessel-seen-near-nord-stream-pipelines-days-before-blasts
- Interesting timing for these reports.
Post by: martinuzz on May 01, 2023, 09:12:24 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 01, 2023, 09:29:10 am
Nice article with a snapshot of the war on the Zaporizhzhia front
Post by: jipehog on May 01, 2023, 03:59:28 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/29/world/europe/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive.htmlAnything interesting on that front?
Nice article with a snapshot of the war on the Zaporizhzhia front
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 01, 2023, 10:25:44 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 03, 2023, 01:31:36 am
Also Kremlin Guidelines for Media Coverage of Ukrainian Counteroffensive Leaked (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/02/kremlin-guidelines-for-media-coverage-of-ukrainian-counteroffensive-leaked-a81012)
- Nothing particular interesting, I do wonder about this though:
Quote
The Kremlin has apparently also told state media to avoid mentioning how much of the national budget has been earmarked for the restoration of infrastructure in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, fearing its size could spark public resentment.
Is there any estimates or leaks on that front? I recall that Crimea's "peaceful" annexation has cost Russia dearly, I can't imagine anything about this war going as well as that, no matter how they will cook the numbers
Post by: scriver on May 03, 2023, 02:10:01 am
Post by: King Zultan on May 03, 2023, 02:11:54 am
Post by: jipehog on May 03, 2023, 02:32:44 am
I believe everything is desinformation nowonly now :P
According to Russian sources like Prigozin, Ukraine will luckily going to attack before the 15, probably in a few days.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 03, 2023, 06:19:31 am
Speaking of propaganda, have you guys seen the video from Putin's visit to Mariupol? Where he talks to some Random And Genuine [TM] citizens being super thankful and all, while somebody in the background shouts: It's all fake, it's all for show!' And they aired it anyway.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 03, 2023, 07:09:07 am
Post by: jipehog on May 03, 2023, 07:17:58 am
Russian propaganda has been predicting dates for the offensive for a while now. With full confidence and so far zero accuracy. A few weeks ago it was the last day of April. I guess they'll get it right eventually.That means little. Obviously Russia seek to prepare for upcoming counteroffensive (previous prediction correlated with forecast that soil will be dry from around mid-April), meanwhile Ukraine seek to obfuscate its plan and if necessarily will change them. If you recall this is pretty much what Russia did at the start of war, when it moved troops to the border and then moved some of them back to make fun of USA\UK predictions and cast them as alarmist cries of wolf.
---
Edit: Also recent reports suggest Ukrainian forces may have started securing a foothold among weak Russian defences in Kherson, southern Ukraine.
Heh, this night, a light drone hit Kremlin. No real damage but tells a few things about Russian Air Defense.Its good propaganda, I believe its part of an effort to force Russia to spread its AA resources around.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 03, 2023, 07:36:15 am
Heh, this night, a light drone hit Kremlin. No real damage but tells a few things about Russian Air Defense.
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1653734878075142150
Almost hit the main flag of Russia... A pity. This rag burning would be a great symbol.
Post by: jipehog on May 03, 2023, 08:28:19 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 03, 2023, 08:39:29 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 03, 2023, 08:42:20 am
Post by: Bralbaard on May 03, 2023, 08:45:34 am
Based on the video you would think the flag was the target all along. The explosive force would seem to be far too insignificant to do anything else.
(assuming it was not shot down, and there is unexploded ordnance there)
It is a very unsubtle message that Ukraine actually has the ability to get a drone in that location, if it wants to. Not an actual assassination attempt as Russia claims.
Post by: Ganondworf on May 03, 2023, 12:23:53 pm
How can anybody say with a straight face that Ukraine has no right to defend itself, or to take out legal military targets? How can anybody complain that the aggressor's intended victim decided not to lie down and surrender, and instead fights Russia tooth and nail? I am sure it is not hard to guess what would have happened if Russian soldiers would have gotten their hands on president Zelenskyy, so my heart bleeds for any Russian who complains about attacks on Russia.
Not.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 03, 2023, 12:37:23 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 03, 2023, 01:25:51 pm
Even after more than one year of war I still continue to be amazed by the Russian brazenness when complaining about Ukrainian actions.
How can anybody say with a straight face that Ukraine has no right to defend itself, or to take out legal military targets? How can anybody complain that the aggressor's intended victim decided not to lie down and surrender, and instead fights Russia tooth and nail? I am sure it is not hard to guess what would have happened if Russian soldiers would have gotten their hands on president Zelenskyy, so my heart bleeds for any Russian who complains about attacks on Russia.
Not.
Today, 19 civilians were killed in Kherson by Russian shellings. Media (even some Ukrainian) cares about some nearly missed flag more and even calls that ESCALATION
Post by: Ganondworf on May 03, 2023, 01:29:36 pm
Yes, I understand that. People here are floating that possibility as well. I just don't understand how the Russian government still seems to believe that blaming Ukraine for anything is a productive use of their time. Who will believe them? Only their own brainwashed Zombies, right?
Post by: Ganondworf on May 03, 2023, 01:33:33 pm
Today, 19 civilians were killed in Kherson by Russian shellings. Media (even some Ukrainian) cares about some nearly missed flag more and even calls that ESCALATION
Well, it is a highly symbolic event I believe, whoever staged it. But the sad news (in terms of the media) is, that people killed by Russian shelling is nothing new, while possible Ukrainian drones close to the Kremlin is much more newsworthy. I hate that logic.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 03, 2023, 01:36:29 pm
Only their own brainwashed Zombies, right?
Trumpists believe this. European tankies believe it. Various pro-Russians in the Middle East believe it. World has many useful idiots.
Well, it is a highly symbolic event I believe, whoever staged it. But the sad news (in terms of the media) is, that people killed by Russian shelling is nothing new, while possible Ukrainian drones close to the Kremlin is much more newsworthy. I hate that logic.
Yeah, it is the sad reality of how human attention works.
Post by: Ganondworf on May 03, 2023, 02:51:47 pm
Trumpists believe this. European tankies believe it. Various pro-Russians in the Middle East believe it. World has many useful idiots.
You are right, of course. And I had to look up the term "tankies". I tend to forget those people exist, because my bubble does not contain any of those, and I don't use social media anymore. It will forever mystify me how people with access to free and independent media can be firm supporters of people like Putin.
Post by: jipehog on May 03, 2023, 03:21:51 pm
One theory I've heard is that it relates the Immortal Regiment, where people march with pictures of their relatives who perished in the Great Patriotic War. If large numbers of people started to join it with pictures of people lost during the current war, it would highlight the monstrous losses Russia's taken.exactly my thought. If its so obvious then there is a good chance that this is exactly what was planned. I hope they can still make it work.
It will forever mystify me how people with access to free and independent media can be firm supporters of people like Putin.
Try to replace 'Putin' with the name of major political party you disagree with ;)
Otherwise, I would argue that the overwhelming majority of people in the world have negative view of Putin, however, they majority also have negative view of USA and or do not share its interests, and thus its not that they support Putin they oppose USA more.. in other words the enemy of my enemy.
Post by: jipehog on May 03, 2023, 03:33:27 pm
There's a very real possibility that this is a false-flag (no pun intended) incident, or the work of domestic Russian dissidents. Like so many things, we won't know for sure until the war is over at the earliest.Or internal dissent. etc. Regardless Zelensky categorically denied Ukrainian involvement.
Post by: Ganondworf on May 03, 2023, 03:45:04 pm
Try to replace 'Putin' with the name of major political party you disagree with ;)
Otherwise, I would argue that the overwhelming majority of people in the world have negative view of Putin, however, they majority also have negative view of USA and or do not share its interests, and thus its not that they support Putin they oppose USA more.. in other words the enemy of my enemy.
I'm glad you put that smily there. For me there is a fundamental difference between political parties opposed to my personal political views, and people who are just bad, inhumanistic persons (not sure about the correct use of "inhumanistic"). I can accept that people may have interests that differ from mine, but I cannot accept people missing basic human decency. People who want to treat other people badly just because they are different in some way. People who want to impose their views and rules on others without regard for the others' needs.
I believe there are those who are objectively bad people, and I cannot for the life of me understand why someone, who could through the use of independent media verify that those people are bad, still support them.
But maybe I'm not enough of a cynic for that.
Sorry. /rant off
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2023, 03:09:40 am
There's a very real possibility that this is a false-flag (no pun intended) incident, or the work of domestic Russian dissidents. Like so many things, we won't know for sure until the war is over at the earliest.Or internal dissent. etc. Regardless Zelensky categorically denied Ukrainian involvement.
Ukraine didn't admit any attack on any target inside Russia so it is largely irrelevant
Post by: jipehog on May 04, 2023, 12:20:07 pm
Post by: Starver on May 04, 2023, 12:47:58 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 04, 2023, 02:14:04 pm
Otherwise, I would argue that the overwhelming majority of people in the world have negative view of Putin, however, they majority also have negative view of USA and or do not share its interests, and thus its not that they support Putin they oppose USA more.. in other words the enemy of my enemy.
There's three thought processes that can lead people there. The most common is not far off from what you're saying.
America Bad. America Says Russia Bad. Therefore Russia Good.
This is common among the American tankie, who thinks the US is universally bad but still believes that the US is the only nation in the world that has any agency whatsoever. Therefore anybody who opposes the US must be a hero, and anybody who is on good terms with the US must be being puppetmastered by the EVIL CIA (the CIA, meanwhile, wishes it had a hundredth part the capability ascribed to it).
This is also common among the European nationalist, who often finds the US to be a convenient distraction from things their own country is doing, and is confident that they're in no direct threat.
Note that this does not include everybody who criticizes US actions.
The second motive is largely confined to the global right-wing, who see Putin as an icon against the Evil Woke Brigade and fully expected him to continue to dominate the Weak and Effete Liberals.
The third motive is widespread in Africa and adjacent regions, where Russia has poured massive propaganda and proximity has given them more access to do so. This is not an "enemy of my enemy situation", as most people in the region don't have a strong opinion on the US (though many do have such opinions toward Europe). Russia's version of events is simply the loudest.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2023, 06:59:59 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvFrWtLN5Q8 - Here, one with English subtitles (GRAPHIC!!)
Post by: Great Order on May 04, 2023, 09:01:37 pm
It's the way news works. A house being bombed during the blitz wasn't news.
Today, 19 civilians were killed in Kherson by Russian shellings. Media (even some Ukrainian) cares about some nearly missed flag more and even calls that ESCALATION
Well, it is a highly symbolic event I believe, whoever staged it. But the sad news (in terms of the media) is, that people killed by Russian shelling is nothing new, while possible Ukrainian drones close to the Kremlin is much more newsworthy. I hate that logic.
The bit that's interesting is stuff that's either new or the same situation but changed. War breaks out, that's interesting. War ends, that's interesting. An average battle during a war? Not interesting. Civilians die? Interesting. Civilians die for the five hundredth time? Not interesting.
I don't know if that says something about the human condition, or our media.
Post by: Egan_BW on May 04, 2023, 09:05:38 pm
Not very accurate to the real world, but easy.
Post by: martinuzz on May 05, 2023, 01:43:13 am
So, Prigozhin released an interesting video: In front of a pile of fresh Wagner corpses he, using the best examples of Russian swearing, yells at Shoigu and Gerasimov demanding shells. CuriousI wonder how much longer until Wagner says fuck you and disbands itself. That, or Wagner says fuck you and starts a military coup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvFrWtLN5Q8 - Here, one with English subtitles (GRAPHIC!!)
Post by: King Zultan on May 05, 2023, 02:17:48 am
Given how many of them have died recently, I figure they'll all die before they can do ether of those things.So, Prigozhin released an interesting video: In front of a pile of fresh Wagner corpses he, using the best examples of Russian swearing, yells at Shoigu and Gerasimov demanding shells. CuriousI wonder how much longer until Wagner says fuck you and disbands itself. That, or Wagner says fuck you and starts a military coup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvFrWtLN5Q8 - Here, one with English subtitles (GRAPHIC!!)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 05, 2023, 02:58:47 am
Why is he doing that? I really don't know. Perhaps shifting the blame from himself and getting political points.
Post by: Duuvian on May 05, 2023, 03:41:38 am
Wagner boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 05, 2023, 04:01:08 am
Note that he is outright lying about the lack of shells. Bakhmut (10-20% of what is under Ukrainian control) is pounded with a tremendous amount of munitions and there is no decrease in intensity.Its all politics. I mean its transparent he doesnt really give a shit about his dead prison constripts. He's just jockeying for power with Shoigu. Possibly shifting blame too.
Why is he doing that? I really don't know. Perhaps shifting the blame from himself and getting political points.
Its also clear that since Vlad is staying quiet over this he's probably OK with his subordinates clawing at each other. In his mind it probably makes him feel safer: as long as they are making power plays against each other they are not making power plays against him
Post by: martinuzz on May 05, 2023, 09:34:44 pm
Post by: King Zultan on May 06, 2023, 01:39:02 am
Post by: Duuvian on May 06, 2023, 05:03:48 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 06, 2023, 07:17:27 am
Also, I have heard rumors that Victory Day parades in several cities have been cancelled due to the risk of a terrorist attack. Dunno if the Moscow one will happen. Hoping that a bombing happens or a truck gets rammed through the parade or something, would be nice on live TV. Sorry but this government has tainted that day and anything that humiliates it would be good.
Post by: martinuzz on May 06, 2023, 08:38:35 am
The bomb could again have come from anyone.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 06, 2023, 09:45:14 am
Dunno if the Moscow one will happen. Hoping that a bombing happens or a truck gets rammed through the parade or something, would be nice on live TV. Sorry but this government has tainted that day and anything that humiliates it would be good.
There is a $0.5 million bounty for anyone who will land a drone on the Red Square on May 9. I'll laugh so hard if anyone will manage to do it.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 06, 2023, 12:20:59 pm
Zakhar Prilepin, writer and rapper, is not really pro Putin but he is ultra nationalist and pro invasion of Ukraine. He has criticized the army for not being succesful and has criticized Putin telling him that he needs to step down. So yes, he is an asshole, yes I hope they try again, but no, he's not really pro-Putin.Hm, then I want him alive. Anyone that calls for Putin to resign is a hero.
The bomb could again have come from anyone.
And it was probably the FSB. Other vocal critics of Putin took flying lessons, or died in locked rooms.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 06, 2023, 12:26:21 pm
Nothing is simple in bearland.
Post by: martinuzz on May 06, 2023, 12:49:14 pm
Hm, then I want him alive. Anyone that calls for Putin to resign is a hero.Heh, no. There's also those that are just as bad or worse than Putin. This guy would probably be worse than Putin when put in charge of Russia. No hero material.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 06, 2023, 04:24:02 pm
Uh, that ain't what I said. I don't want him running Russia, I just want another loud voice calling for Putin to step down. Enemy of my Enemy is my friend.Hm, then I want him alive. Anyone that calls for Putin to resign is a hero.Heh, no. There's also those that are just as bad or worse than Putin. This guy would probably be worse than Putin when put in charge of Russia. No hero material.
Post by: Random_Dragon on May 06, 2023, 07:11:14 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 06, 2023, 11:28:02 pm
Post by: King Zultan on May 07, 2023, 01:43:57 am
Post by: jipehog on May 07, 2023, 12:48:15 pm
Zakhar Prilepin, writer and rapper, is not really pro Putin but he is ultra nationalist and pro invasion of Ukraine. He has criticized the army for not being succesful and has criticized Putin telling him that he needs to step down. So yes, he is an asshole, yes I hope they try again, but no, he's not really pro-Putin.Any connection to Prigozhin ?
The bomb could again have come from anyone.
Post by: jipehog on May 07, 2023, 02:18:37 pm
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1654605507070402560
Post by: hector13 on May 07, 2023, 03:17:43 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 07, 2023, 03:30:29 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 07, 2023, 03:34:19 pm
Post by: Starver on May 07, 2023, 03:53:43 pm
Given the subject, doesn't really deserve a smiley. Whether an innocent typo or an innocent phonetic confusion (from someone far better at English than I am at anything non-English). Yet there is always the vague possbility that ballistic chemical warfare insects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasutitermitinae) are involved, right?
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 07, 2023, 04:41:32 pm
using incendiary ammunition on civilian infrastructure, irrespective of the presence of civilians, is probably a war crime.
Legally, no. Incendiaries cannot be used directly on civilians, and they cannot be air-dropped in areas where civilians are likely to be present (a holdover from days when air attack was far less accurate that ground-fired artillery). Using such weapons from ground launchers on strictly military targets, even if those targets are located in buildings built by and for civilians, is not in and of itself a war crime. Russia's committing enough blatant war crimes for this to be irrelevant, however.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 07, 2023, 05:01:20 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 07, 2023, 09:46:40 pm
If they vote in someone else in whoever it is they pick to replace Putin is probably going to just be Putin 2: Electric boogaloo.It's more likely if Putin is removed (and most likely it will involve Putin's death) that Russia will implode. Sure, whomever ends up in charge will probably be awful, but they still need to call off the war on account of needing those troops to take control.
Post by: KittyTac on May 08, 2023, 04:10:00 am
Quite a mental image... ButIn Russian they not only are spelled the same (термит) but pronounced the same. I assume it's the same in Ukrainian.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Termite=> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermite
Given the subject, doesn't really deserve a smiley. Whether an innocent typo or an innocent phonetic confusion (from someone far better at English than I am at anything non-English). Yet there is always the vague possbility that ballistic chemical warfare insects (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nasutitermitinae) are involved, right?
And yeah we are fucked, I might have to move before finishing college. A-fucking-wesome.
Post by: jipehog on May 08, 2023, 06:57:41 am
As far as I know, usually, when Russians are using incendiaries, it is 122mm Grad 9M22S Rocket which is magnesium + termiteCould be. Though outside of name recognition there is little difference between the two in the field. Otherwise, I think this hellish scene impress the savage nature of war wage upon Ukraine more so when contrasted with things like the Kremlin "assassination" drone
Post by: Starver on May 08, 2023, 08:25:22 am
In Russian they not only are spelled the same (термит) but pronounced the same. I assume it's the same in Ukrainian.Aye, I suspected something as much. Or certainly one of those things that certain non-Anglophones are (perhaps stereotypically) inclined to say[1], whatever their native words/typography might be, and so induce a phonetic 'thinko' rather than a mis-keyed 'typo'. Forgive my mischievousness, but I had actually not long ago been reading about the chemical-shooting ('headcannon (https://xkcd.com/1401/)'!) termites.
Spoiler: Various feetnete, veering *way* off topic... (click to show/hide)
Post by: KittyTac on May 08, 2023, 09:06:08 am
Post by: Starver on May 08, 2023, 09:46:48 am
Chekov's accent in TOS doesn't really sound very much like a real Russian accent.I know (hence the pun contrasting Pavel to Anton Chekhov). And the L/R thing for that part of the world has been quite the uncompromising (and often deliberately insulting) stereotype, too[1], but I was mixing it up a bit. An amazing number of 'ex-Eastern Bloc' people tend to actually have American accents greater than their residual native one, probably due to being (re)educated by, or in, the US/its media.
(Oh, and James Doohan was also 'kilting it up', as a Canadian, but then neither an extreme such as Rab C Nesbitt nor a subtlety like DI Jimmy Pérez would have worked as well in a US television series of the time.)
Sorry, more foolish commentary by me, I'm sure. Definitely off-topic. Impressions (or historic ones) and not reflecting so much current realities, esp. of Ukraine's situation.
[1] I believe that, as a child, I grew up thinking that all Chinese said all Rs as Ls, and all Japanese said all Ls as Rs. And comedy stereotype generic oriental would "genellary lender evely lhetolic retter longry" (generally render every rhetoric letter wrongly), or at least in the way that created the most opportunity for puns. A different age, even if it was based upon some small truth.
Post by: Random_Dragon on May 08, 2023, 10:15:36 am
Post by: Telgin on May 08, 2023, 10:23:01 am
One of the few lines I vividly remember from Maggie Chow for some reason. Before I goomba stomped her to death later.
I don't remember all of the Chinese characters talking like that though, and I think she only messed up some of the time.
Wish I had something on topic to say. Just waiting for the counteroffensive to start.
Post by: martinuzz on May 08, 2023, 10:49:16 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 08, 2023, 02:17:32 pm
Cantonese doesn't have a retroflex "r" sound, only a lateral "l" sound. Many Cantonese speakers do pronounce "r"s as "l"s, and Cantonese, for a long time, was the more important Chinese language in the context of Western contact, especially because of Hong Kong. The vast majority of Western experience with Chinese languages has traditionally been Cantonese until very recently, and still is in many places, so, naturally, the understanding of "what Chinese sounds like" developed from that. To give the example just about everyone knows, Jackie Chan is from Hong Kong and a native Cantonese speaker.
So, in other words, it's a real thing, it's just historically contingent.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on May 08, 2023, 02:30:25 pm
But this is obviously very secret information, that I'm only letting you all know in order to win an Internet argument I'm currently having in PMs with Toady, who doesn't even think I have Zelenskyy's wife's phone-number (and second best handbag, but that is another story). I don't think even the US three-letter-agencies know of this, yet, as it hasn't been leaked on Instagram (which I read all of). And clearly you shouldn't let anyone in the Kremlin know, Max, so keep it schtum!
Sigg'ed.
Post by: jipehog on May 08, 2023, 02:59:23 pm
Just waiting for the counteroffensive to start.
Unless you define the counteroffensive as the moment challengers and leopards start to roll, it could be already underway and so far Russia was really good at catching Ukrainian drones with its fuel storage tanks.
Edit: Btw with Russia effectively going on the defensive is counteroffensive is still the right term ?
Post by: Strongpoint on May 08, 2023, 03:22:07 pm
We are in the preparation stage of the Ukrainian offensive, HIMARSes and drones work hard striking fuel and ammo whenever they can. Small-scale probing attacks are also more common than usual.
When, If and where the actual push will begin is impossible to tell. This night would be... poetic. Just to add another meaning to the May 9 but it is such an obvious idea that Russians will be ready.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 08, 2023, 04:07:33 pm
Edit: Btw with Russia effectively going on the defensive is counteroffensive is still the right term ?
Yes, because any Ukrainian offensive this year is going to be direct reaction to the Russian offensive. The only scenarios where Ukraine wouldn't be doing a counteroffensive is if they launched an invasion of Crimea or Russia proper -those would be offensive actions taken by choice (a decision that winning this defensive war means taking this territory away) rather than retaking ground the Russians just took.
The distinction is mostly about "why are you attacking here - if you're attacking because this is where the enemy's been pushing and he's shot his bolt, it is a counter offensive. If you're attacking because you think the enemy has left himself open in a quiet area, it is simply an offensive.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 08, 2023, 05:05:01 pm
Attacking an entrenched enemy stationary army is just an offensive. It doesn't matter who is the legal owner of the territory.
Post by: jipehog on May 08, 2023, 05:46:39 pm
We are in the preparation stage of the Ukrainian offensive, HIMARSes and drones work hard striking fuel and ammo whenever they can. Small-scale probing attacks are also more common than usual.Indeed, I just hope that people realize that it wont be like the last time. People shouldn't expect magic and glorious ever victorious push. Pushing against mine fields and prepared fortified position would be tough. It's going to take a while and there will be setbacks. The key is to set the conditions for victory before hand try our best to exploit them.
When, If and where the actual push will begin is impossible to tell. This night would be... poetic. Just to add another meaning to the May 9 but it is such an obvious idea that Russians will be ready.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 08, 2023, 06:20:13 pm
No, Counteroffensive is a method of defense against an offensive exploring their lack of entrenchment, weak flanks, supply issues, etc. It can also be used to plug holes that the enemy has managed to create.
Attacking an entrenched enemy stationary army is just an offensive. It doesn't matter who is the legal owner of the territory.
It isn't about legal ownership, but about why you're attacking. The Battle Of The Bulge was a counteroffensive, because the Germans were launching it in direct response to the US offensive. The fact that the rightful owner of the territory was part of the US offensive is irrelevant. Meanwhile Normandy was a regular offensive because they decided it was time to reopen the Western Front, picked a spot where the Germans were weak, and punched into it.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 09, 2023, 12:43:12 am
It isn't about legal ownership, but about why you're attacking. The Battle Of The Bulge was a counteroffensive, because the Germans were launching it in direct response to the US offensive. The fact that the rightful owner of the territory was part of the US offensive is irrelevant. Meanwhile Normandy was a regular offensive because they decided it was time to reopen the Western Front, picked a spot where the Germans were weak, and punched into it.In "direct response" is not the same as "after". Allies were on the offensive, Germans launched a counteroffensive to disrupt the enemy's attack.
Russians are not on the offensive anywhere but on a thin part of the Donbass front. The fact that they had offensives there recently and that Ukrainian offensive will be an attempt to undo it is irrelevant if we speak about the actual meaning of the word as the military uses it.
Kharkiv counteroffensive was an actual counteroffensive because it was a strike into a light area at the flank of a large force pushing South. Kherson counteroffensive can be seen as a counteroffensive in a broader strategic sense as it weakened the Russian offensive on the Donbass front as they were forced to pull forces from there and move them to Kherson.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 09, 2023, 02:50:36 am
Post by: King Zultan on May 09, 2023, 03:19:07 am
Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Post by: Strongpoint on May 09, 2023, 03:24:26 am
Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Do you think they will allow him to watch victorious Ukrainian forces marching on the Red Square?
Post by: EuchreJack on May 09, 2023, 04:58:22 pm
I imagine that his corpse will have a proud, stern expression upon it as they drag his coffin down the street...Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Do you think they will allow him to watch victorious Ukrainian forces marching on the Red Square?
Post by: King Zultan on May 10, 2023, 01:47:49 am
I doubt there's much they can do to stop him from watching from his place in Hell.Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.I find this whole thing incredibly funny, and just imagine how depressed looking he will be at next years parade, if he's still alive...
Do you think they will allow him to watch victorious Ukrainian forces marching on the Red Square?
Also what the hell I responded to this yesterday and it's nowhere to be seen.
Post by: jipehog on May 10, 2023, 03:51:54 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 10, 2023, 12:17:20 pm
Putin's depressed face, marching cadets, no tanks, no IFVs, no artillery... I loved this Victory Day parade.The band should have started playing viva la vida
Post by: Great Order on May 10, 2023, 01:15:49 pm
Apparently the guy did get shot by his own side (And you can see him limping later in the video when he didn't have one at the beginning) but made it over and received treatment apparently.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 01:37:47 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 11, 2023, 02:45:51 am
Looks like the first noticeable counterattack is on Bakhmut's flanks. It would be nice to get Wagner surround and make the battle for Bakhmut even more similar to a scaled-down version of the battle for StalingradI absolutely love the putinbot copium, saying they're just doing a tactical retreat. Just like Kherson xD
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 04:46:18 am
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.
This may have a major impact.
Post by: jipehog on May 11, 2023, 05:04:29 am
It seem that the Russian units involved aren't wagner, presumably it means that MOD decided that offensive around Bakhmut has culminated whether Prigozhin like it or not. If so then its too bad, I was really happy about Prigozhin steering the pot and wasting more shells when there are talks that the rest of the fronts being rationed in preparation of the attack.
Post by: Starver on May 11, 2023, 05:56:42 am
Having the Russians withdrawing civvies/workers from around Zaporizhzhia NPS certainly doesn't rule out any of my top ideas about what the power-playing is going to result in.
(Isn't the Storm Shadow an air-launched system? That implies... something. Well, one of several possible somethings, but probably not the naively obvious ones.)
Post by: jipehog on May 11, 2023, 06:34:30 am
Bakhmut also have significant political value for Russia, which struggle to make gains in Donetsk region, and isn't just fighting on the fronts but also to integrate these regions with various schemes
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 07:01:01 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 11, 2023, 07:25:09 am
The fact that both sides have been so convinced of the need to grind up against each other for Bakhmut (and waaay beyond "well, we thought we could prevail, once, and now we're sinking more good effort after bad) highly suggests a couple of main possibilities (and a few possible alternatives) to me about all sides' future aims on the front. I know what I think is most likely, but I'm not going to say it out loud. (Probably plain wrong. Or, worse, I'd be far too right for comfort.) But it's perhaps born of too much tabletop-campaigning, when I was young. Which I was never actually all that successful in, even if I apparently had the right sort of strategy on occasion.
Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid. Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition. And in a battle of attrition, you have to actually atrit the enemy.
Pinning down so much Russian combat power in one spot has also greatly relieved pressure on other parts of the front and allowed localized probes/assaults elsewhere to succeed, which is valuable in and of itself.
(Isn't the Storm Shadow an air-launched system? That implies... something. Well, one of several possible somethings, but probably not the naively obvious ones.)
The most obvious would be that they managed to integrate the missile onto existing Ukrainian Migs, the same way that HARM and JDAM have been kludged on. The other possibility is that they've adapted the naval version that the French use on ships and submarines for a ground launch vehicle. Any other option would have to be provided in advance of the missiles, and the sources say that the UK has supplied, not will supply. This strongly suggests that they're either in transit or already in-country. So there has to be an ability to launch them now, not in some nebulous future.
Storm Shadow is a nasty, nasty weapon. A combination of terrain following with outright stealth technology will make it extremely difficult to intercept, it not only has the now-standard GPS guidance but an onboard camera for even greater accuracy, and an extremely powerful two-stage warhead (there's a shaped charge in front of the main warhead, which clears away any debris and opens an initial hole for the main one to detonate in, dramatically increasing penetration and damage) will obliterate the majority of possible targets. It also has either a 250km range (export version) or a nearly 600km range (for the version used by the UK's military). Supply will be a problem (there's only been a few thousand made if they're being supplied from stocks, and if they're being delivered straight from the factory production rate is likely low), but even the short-legged version will be able to hit just about anywhere in Crimea. If these sources are correct (and there's lots of reason to think it is), a lot of very bad people just got a lot less safe.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 07:44:45 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 11, 2023, 07:53:22 am
Meanwhile, the CNN article was based on anonymous sources, but the UK has now confirmed the reports.
https://news.sky.com/story/storm-shadow-uk-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-defence-secretary-confirms-12878298
Quote
The UK is sending long-range missiles to Ukraine, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has confirmed.
The minister said that Storm Shadows missiles will be provided to Ukraine's military.
Sky News understands that some of the missiles are already in Ukraine - with Mr Wallace saying the projectiles "are now going into or are in the country itself."
Ukraine has long been calling for such weapons, but the US and other countries have been unwilling to supply them in case strikes inside Russia lead to escalation.
Post by: martinuzz on May 11, 2023, 08:02:49 am
Post by: jipehog on May 11, 2023, 08:33:43 am
Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid. Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition.Hence the often asked question what will run out first Russian manpower or Westerns equipment. Although I am concerned about Ukraine manpower as well, especially as it moves to the offensive.
For perspective, country populations:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 11, 2023, 08:44:16 am
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.htmlNoice! I always found the arguments that it would feed "escalation" to be rather spurious. The Russians escalated the situation, only providing the means for Ukrainians to retaliate will actually incentivise the Russians to not escalate. I also remember the words of the Ukrainian defence minister, who lamented how many European allies were reluctant to provide "offensive" weapons Ukraine's military needed to defend itself, but were happy to provide funds or humanitarian aid. As if it was okay to treat someone who has been shot but not okay to stop the guy shooting you
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.
This may have a major impact.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 11, 2023, 09:06:48 am
My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
One of the biggest threats to Ukrainian aircraft is apparently Mig-31 Foxhounds firing the new AA-13 Axehead missile, which has a range of possibly as high as 400 kilometers and is one of the few newer Russian weapons that actually works. Shorter range AAMs and SAM systems are also a real threat over the Russian lines. This means that even with long-range cruise missiles, there's severe constraints on what kind of targets can be safely serviced.
Post by: scriver on May 11, 2023, 10:06:05 am
Heavy as Ukrainian casualties have been in Bakhmut, everything we know suggests that Russia's are far heavier. Whatever the state of Russian manpower, all evidence is that Russia has far less ability to replace equipment than Ukraine does due to Western aid. Not to mention that the Russians have expended (and Ukraine has bombed) a massive amount of increasingly priceless ammunition here. This war, like many wars, is likely to come down to a battle of attrition.Hence the often asked question what will run out first Russian manpower or Westerns equipment. Although I am concerned about Ukraine manpower as well, especially as it moves to the offensive.
For perspective, country populations:Spoiler (click to show/hide)Sadly, the export version of Storm Shadow probably doesn't have the range to do that unless the UAF gets really bold.My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
I'm really glad they gave the Czech Republic two lines there or I might never have been able to guess which country it was with just a Cze there
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 11:39:03 am
My thought exactly, is there are any public data on where UAF are free to operate? That said the more options the better.
One of the biggest threats to Ukrainian aircraft is apparently Mig-31 Foxhounds firing the new AA-13 Axehead missile, which has a range of possibly as high as 400 kilometers and is one of the few newer Russian weapons that actually works. Shorter range AAMs and SAM systems are also a real threat over the Russian lines. This means that even with long-range cruise missiles, there's severe constraints on what kind of targets can be safely serviced.
Them outraging our old AA missiles with their newer ones is a problem, but an even larger problem is that Mig-29's radar simply can't see at those distances and has no idea that it is targeted or that enemy aircraft are even there. It forces pilots to rely on info from ground-based radars and it is far from ideal.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 11, 2023, 11:40:52 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 11:47:39 am
Quite. It is a very severe hindrance to combat operations, which is why the few Mig-31s that have gone down are such a big deal.
Our pilots name SU-35s (that can use the very R-37M missiles) as the main adversary. Mig-31s are relatively univloved
Post by: EuchreJack on May 11, 2023, 02:06:17 pm
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/11/europe/bakhmut-counterattacks-underway-intl/index.html
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2023, 02:19:14 pm
But yep, it has started. I think it is only an appetizer and the main strike will be elsewhere. Still, it is enough to send Vatnik segments of all Social Media into a panic mode
Post by: jipehog on May 11, 2023, 05:12:56 pm
(https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aoKx252_460swp.webp)
Speaking of Imagine Dragons - Crushed
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSav7HayxtI
Post by: jipehog on May 11, 2023, 07:40:51 pm
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-counteroffensive-needs-time-zelenskyy-says/a-65588225
Post by: Great Order on May 11, 2023, 09:23:44 pm
The only ways I can see it escalating are moving to CBRN or insensate civilian reprisals (As in "Fuck all of you, we're just going to slaughter you en-masse" rather than "Civilian, military, who cares?"). What else are they going to do, war harder?https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/11/politics/uk-storm-shadow-cruise-missiles-ukraine/index.htmlNoice! I always found the arguments that it would feed "escalation" to be rather spurious. The Russians escalated the situation, only providing the means for Ukrainians to retaliate will actually incentivise the Russians to not escalate. I also remember the words of the Ukrainian defence minister, who lamented how many European allies were reluctant to provide "offensive" weapons Ukraine's military needed to defend itself, but were happy to provide funds or humanitarian aid. As if it was okay to treat someone who has been shot but not okay to stop the guy shooting you
The United Kingdom has supplied Ukraine with multiple Storm Shadow cruise missiles, giving Ukrainian forces a new long-range strike capability in advance of a highly anticipated counteroffensive against Russian forces, multiple senior Western officials told CNN.
This may have a major impact.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 12, 2023, 05:36:25 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2023, 07:06:39 am
Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 12, 2023, 10:13:51 am
Thankfully, Russian military prowess has deteriorated so much since WWIl that they can't even see a classic pincher...Russian bakhmut operational cope has advanced into the "orderly group withdrawal" stage and is progressing into the "cohesive mobile offensive" stage. How long until we get the "we withdrew as a gesture of goodwill" cope level 3?
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 12, 2023, 10:16:51 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2023, 10:30:07 am
Post by: scriver on May 12, 2023, 11:06:40 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2023, 11:58:44 am
Are these the armies that ravaged Ukraine during the war?
Nah, It is from the Battle of Stalingrad. German flanks were guarded by (mostly) Romanians who lacked training, morale, and equipment to do anything meaningful against Soviet armored strikes and prevent the German 6th army from being surrounded. The lack of proper German divisions was one of the main reasons why Stalingrad was such a disaster.
Russia is in a similar situation, while they still have very dangerous combat-capable units like Wagner or paratroopers or tank armies, the bulk of their new army is comprised of hastily trained mobilized who are armed with old Soviet weapons.
Post by: jipehog on May 12, 2023, 12:59:13 pm
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.According to understandingwar: The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
If so, what value those flanks hold for them? On a defensive such a bulge only increase the front and make them more vulnerable.
----
Edit: For Ukrainians it seem like a good move, which exploit Russian vulnerability, secures their position and reestablish control of local roads. Whether that would develop to something else around Bakhmut i unknow atm (maybe they will push kurdiumivka first?)
----
Edit2:
I agree with understandingwar assessment of Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric being seriously disturbing to the top leadership of Russia. He is doing so much damage. Also: https://streamable.com/y2cqj2
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 12, 2023, 01:26:48 pm
It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.There is even an unconfirmed report that a Belarusian officer fighting for the Ukrainians managed to trick Russian artillery into shelling Russian lines using a captured radio. They seem keen to not just waste ammunition but also the scant few organised units they have left
Post by: jipehog on May 12, 2023, 05:03:18 pm
Post by: Starver on May 12, 2023, 05:46:33 pm
There are claims that ADM-160_MALD (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD) decoy missile is in use in Ukraine. Any other info about or estimate on how useful it would be?Theoretically, multiple uses. Both in decoy mode and (if one of the relevent versions) running its electronics package as an active jammer.
Or even get the enemy used to 'obvious' decoys, which they can (and want to) do little about... before running a false-decoy that's actually the real thing doing real stuff.
Though I'm imagining far more devious uses, and also plenty of alternate ways to do the above (with the right kit, which I wouldn't expect to know the specifics of who has what... Some people with actual jobs in this field probably have even wilder (but more accurate/enactable) imaginations, though.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 12, 2023, 10:09:59 pm
If I believed the Russians capable of strategic thinking, I would be looking for their troop movements elsewhere.It is truly weird there. While Ukraine is advancing both north and south of Bakhmut. Wagner pushes into that small portion of Bakhmut that is still under Ukrainian control advancing further and spending absurd amounts of munitions to do so. Munitions that could be useful on the flanks.According to understandingwar: The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
If so, what value those flanks hold for them? On a defensive such a bulge only increase the front and make them more vulnerable.
----
Edit: For Ukrainians it seem like a good move, which exploit Russian vulnerability, secures their position and reestablish control of local roads. Whether that would develop to something else around Bakhmut i unknow atm (maybe they will push kurdiumivka first?)
----
Edit2:
I agree with understandingwar assessment of Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric being seriously disturbing to the top leadership of Russia. He is doing so much damage. Also: https://streamable.com/y2cqj2
Throw trash at Bakhmut, press on Bakhmut, oh look at Bakhmut....then attack elsewhere.
There is also the Paper Tiger scenario, where Russia engages in a high visibility, low resource conflict over Bakhmut. They always have more troops to die valiantly. They're not getting those tanks back.
Post by: jipehog on May 13, 2023, 02:51:11 am
edit: added the bold part.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2023, 03:02:27 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 13, 2023, 05:21:58 am
Post by: jipehog on May 13, 2023, 08:44:27 am
Meanwhile in the world:
* Egypt has ignored U.S. requests to close its airspace to Russian military flights, American and Egyptian officials said, testing the limits of Washington’s ability to choke off Moscow’s supplies ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-ally-rebuffs-requests-to-block-russian-military-flights-8539390f
* Among BRICS countries ( Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) which seek to establish alternative to west. China helps Russia, India deepen their economic ties, Brazil recently suggested peace plan that mirrors the former interests, so does south africa which seeks to involve other African countries in this.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2023, 01:00:30 pm
Most likely, we risked and brought a long-range SAM really close to the border. Another possibility is a saboteur group with MANPADs
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 13, 2023, 02:57:30 pm
Post by: martinuzz on May 13, 2023, 03:41:53 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2023, 04:14:14 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 13, 2023, 04:18:56 pm
Reports I'm seeing suggest that it was Russia that shot down the two Russian jets and three Russian helicopters
What we know is that they were shot in a very close proximity.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Personally, I am inclined to believe Strongpoint proposition especially if they got careless following a routine path, but IF what you say is true then there is also another outlandish possibility, could they be defectors?
https://news.yahoo.com/this-is-like-a-movie-ukraines-secret-plan-to-convince-3-russian-pilots-to-defect-with-their-planes-030018349.html
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 13, 2023, 04:27:43 pm
While we now that Ukraine never engages targets in Russia. It is war between Bryansk People Republic and Belgorod People Republic (for the right to be the only one BPR), I doubt that even Russian can friendly-fire five aircrafts
It isn't that outlandish if they're ultra paranoid about incoming missiles, especially when the missiles are hard to pick up and they know that the other guy has sophisticated decoys. If you just open up on anything you see, you can take down a lot of your own planes.
Meanwhile, pushing forward a S-300 like I've seen suggested would be really risky for the potential gain, and you'd need to infiltrate a lot of MANPAD systems to pull off this much result.
In other air defense news, it is not only confirmed that Patriot systems shot down an incoming Killjoy hypersonic missile, it is all but confirmed that the Killjoy was targeted on the Patriot site itself.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 14, 2023, 12:41:25 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 14, 2023, 02:56:39 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
@Lord Shonus, sorry poorly phrased, I meant that my plug for the spy novel story is the outlandish option. Also I still believe that Strongpoint assessment that it is long-range SAM is the most likely.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 14, 2023, 06:40:30 pm
Turkish election is nothing compare to this changeNo idea what that means. If you're referring to the Ukrainian Peace Plan, it's no different than the proposal at the beginning of the war. If anything, I think it might be broader, with the call for Russian War Criminals to be tried.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
@Lord Shonus, sorry poorly phrased, I meant that my plug for the spy novel story is the outlandish option. Also I still believe that Strongpoint assessment that it is long-range SAM is the most likely.
Not really new at all, unless you call 6 months "new" (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/28/what-is-zelenskyys-10-point-peace-plan)
Post by: jipehog on May 14, 2023, 06:53:07 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 14, 2023, 07:00:35 pm
It show Zelenski as president of Russia..Oh, that would be called foreshadowing, LOL.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 14, 2023, 10:50:58 pm
Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.
More here - https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/
Post by: Random_Dragon on May 15, 2023, 12:01:46 am
A) A really stupid attempt to trick Ukraine into giving him a break?
B) Some sort of fake leak generated to give Putin an excuse to defenestration him?
C) Sheer batshit insanity?
D) Some combination of the above?
Post by: King Zultan on May 15, 2023, 12:57:28 am
Post by: hector13 on May 15, 2023, 02:08:36 am
Hopefully it works. If Putin’s only choice is to put raw recruits on the frontlines, that’s going to piss off even more wives and mothers.
The alternative is that Prigozhin is so mercenary he’s willing to invoke the wrath of Putin, and I’m not sure he’s that bananas. He’ll be avoiding windows for a while I imagine.
In other news, Zelensky has been continuing his relentless pressure on European leaders to continue supporting the Ukrainian defensive effort recently, visiting Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France, and now a surprise UK visit. I know nothing about his effectiveness as a leader, but he’s doing a pretty good job of keeping this at the forefront of the minds world leaders.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 15, 2023, 09:29:47 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 15, 2023, 01:11:11 pm
EDIT: I read it wrong, the fact that he admitted it was an accident, Russia still denies that any aircraft were shot down.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 15, 2023, 01:17:40 pm
Belarussian president Loekasjenko admitted that the Russian aircraft and helicopters were "accidentally shot down" by Belarus. ;D ;DFixed that for you!
...uh, could we get back to linking things?
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 15, 2023, 01:45:55 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 15, 2023, 02:02:41 pm
What, Lukashenko has got better to be able to make such pronouncements?
He appeared in public today and he looks and sounds... not healthy.
But I am not sure that his death would be beneficial, it may accelerate the annexation of Belarus by Russia
Post by: jipehog on May 15, 2023, 02:25:01 pm
Belarussian president Loekasjenko admitted that the Russian aircraft and helicopters were indeed shot downInteresting. Quick google to double check that also suggest that:
Quote
The respected Russian news outlet Kommersant reported on Saturday that a Russian raiding party comprising an Su-34 fighter-bomber, an Su-35 fighter and two Mi-8 helicopters had been shot down in an ambush near Klintsy in Russia's Bryansk region.
It said they had been due to attack targets in the Chernihiv region of Ukraine, directly over the border.
So I assume we are talking about These Mi-8 (https://www.key.aero/article/mi-8-russias-electronic-countermeasures-helicopter):
Quote
The Mil Mi-8MTPR-1 Hip-H is a stand-off jamming system that remains outside the range of enemy air defence weapons to grant effective screening for the attacking tactical aircraft or combat helicopter packages as they are penetrating the enemy air defence systemWhich gives credence to long range AA. I heard a rumor that it was another newly imported advanced weapon system.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 16, 2023, 03:29:53 am
Post by: Cathar on May 16, 2023, 04:44:24 am
But I am not sure that his death would be beneficial, it may accelerate the annexation of Belarus by RussiaMore realistically, Luka refused to engage his army in the Ukrainian conflict, despite Russian very untactful insistance.
If he dies, his next in line may not have the same strengh of will and may take his orders directly from the Kremlin.
In the meanwhile, Bakhmut counter siege is now in full swing and is looking good for the AFU
Post by: Ganondworf on May 16, 2023, 10:43:16 am
6 hypersuperubersonic Russian missiles were shot down over Kyiv this night. At least it is what Ukrainian Armed Forces claim
This is huge, if true. The first one could have been just a lucky break, but 6 out of 6 shot down would be great. Not so superuber as everybody feared.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 16, 2023, 10:45:02 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 16, 2023, 11:12:39 am
Post by: jipehog on May 16, 2023, 11:35:22 am
That seem a bit too good to be true. Also there is a video claimed to be of said patriot system, showing it expanded its whole magazine (over 15 launches that I counted) and then couple of minutes later it look like it was hit. The Russian headlines suggest it was coordinated attack on the Patriot system and that it was destroyed.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 16, 2023, 11:40:17 am
Post by: Ganondworf on May 16, 2023, 11:56:20 am
The headline is that '18 out 18 Russian missiles were shot down in Ukraine this night', including: 6 Kinzhal missiles, 9 Kalibr missiles and 3 ballistic missiles total.
That seem a bit too good to be true. Also there is a video claimed to be of said patriot system, showing it expanded its whole magazine (over 15 launches that I counted) and then couple of minutes later it look like it was hit. The Russian headlines suggest it was coordinated attack on the Patriot system and that it was destroyed.
I read about the one possibly destroyed Patriot system only now. I guess it comes down to if Russia can sustain firing that many missiles to destroy one AA system. Or maybe the Kinshals were targeted at one Patriot system each, and only a single one hit successfully. But I guess we won't really know one way or the other for certain. I do hope the Kinshals are not as uber as Russia claimed.
Post by: jipehog on May 16, 2023, 12:08:45 pm
Here is a video (no idea if authentic, not the type of account i would trust) https://twitter.com/RadarFennec/status/1658287607938162690
The count of launches is closer to 30, spread between several locations (how many interceptors patriot launcher can hold 8? 16?) at the site and what looks like one hit. If the patriot system was targeted it make sense they expanded its arsenal and if the list of Russian missile downed is correct that is a good exchange.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 16, 2023, 12:28:29 pm
The headline is that '18 out 18 Russian missiles were shot down in Ukraine this night', including: 6 Kinzhal missiles, 9 Kalibr missiles and 3 ballistic missiles total.
That seem a bit too good to be true. Also there is a video claimed to be of said patriot system, showing it expanded its whole magazine (over 15 launches that I counted) and then couple of minutes later it look like it was hit. The Russian headlines suggest it was coordinated attack on the Patriot system and that it was destroyed.
I have seen that video, faint flash on the ground doesn't look like an explosion of a 500kg Kinzhal warhead. I have also seen no proof that those were Patriot missiles, not any of many other SAM systems Ukraine has in service.
And they may have hit a launcher. Destroying the SYSTEM is a very different story.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 16, 2023, 06:47:29 pm
Post by: Starver on May 16, 2023, 08:45:29 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 16, 2023, 09:09:08 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 16, 2023, 09:53:21 pm
Meanwhile the front seem to straighten up around Bakhmut. Russian forces are reportedly reinforcing their effort in and around Bakhmut and deploying additional manpower and equipment from Belarus to reinforce their positions to the north in Luhansk Oblast
Post by: Cathar on May 17, 2023, 03:59:35 am
There seem to be some confirmation that the battery was hit.It is denied by the AFU in any case, they say the explosion was caused by a missile falling and causing a fire.
If the Patriot is indeed intact, that is a huge loss for Russia. 6 kinzals spent and nothing to show for it is about as impotant as they can ever be ; those nuclear capable missiles are supposed to be the panic button in case of conflict with NATO
Post by: jipehog on May 17, 2023, 05:41:22 am
those nuclear capable missiles are supposed to be the panic button in case of conflict with NATOGood point, I haven't consider that. Also speaking off, some
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/3-russian-hypersonic-missile-scientists-jailed-for-treasoncolleagues-say-a81155
Post by: Strongpoint on May 17, 2023, 02:06:15 pm
BTW, Russian MoD now claims that they destroyed 5 Patriot launchers and its radar with a single Kinzhal.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 17, 2023, 04:57:37 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 17, 2023, 05:42:58 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 18, 2023, 12:41:05 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 18, 2023, 03:50:01 am
Post by: Cathar on May 18, 2023, 03:58:37 am
It is very unlikely that Putin based his decision to invade on this one weapons system.Yes and no. The Kinzhals were the official reason why he delayed its invasion for almost a decade. He was always going to attack, but wanted to wait until the end of those missile development to do so. The source is the ex "supreme leader" of the DPR and he was pretty mad when he made that statement (made a couple weeks ago, calling for their use), so make of that what you will.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 18, 2023, 11:36:01 am
Well, those guys lied to Putin about a superweapon, directly influencing his decision to start the war... Perhaps, if they were honest, there would be no war.It's more likely they're being prosecuted for being honest about the "superweapons". It was probably threats by Putin that had them verify the weapons when they weren't "perfect".
Look at how far back the incarceration of the scientists go. This isn't a "new thing", but rather a "thing we are just now learning about".
Post by: jipehog on May 18, 2023, 08:36:24 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
----
Meanwhile according to understandingwar: Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative and made significant gains around Bakhmut and Prigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tactic
Post by: King Zultan on May 19, 2023, 01:05:06 am
Prigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tacticThat's a mental image I wasn't ready for.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2023, 06:49:59 am
(Sad part is that there are not an insignificant number of people in Europe who'll belive that)
Post by: scriver on May 19, 2023, 07:58:18 am
Anyway, there was a fun article in the news the other day my parents showed me today:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 19, 2023, 08:18:27 am
Post by: jipehog on May 19, 2023, 08:20:07 am
Hey, fellow Europeans reading this thread, did you know that a deadly radioactive cloud is coming to Europe after a Russian missile strike destroyed a stockpile of depleted Uranium shells? Now you know. Russians said so!Sound like the usual Russian falsehood, part of an effort to distract from failures and reversal in Bakhmut with clickbait material.
Btw any thoughts on Russia lifting ban on direct flights to georgia and removal of visas ?
Post by: scriver on May 19, 2023, 08:25:30 am
(The article might be slightly biased on that last one 😉)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2023, 08:56:47 am
Btw any thoughts on Russia lifting ban on direct flights to georgia and removal of visas ?
Rewarding the local pro-Russian government for help in circumventing sanctions.Not gonna end well. I have Ukraine 2010-2013 flashbacks with a declared course to the West and de-facto closeness with Russia. May end in a similar way.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2023, 09:34:06 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2023, 10:10:27 am
... should make it easier to flee Russia.
This is another danger. Georgia was blessed with having only a small Russian diaspora during USSR time which went even lower when they fled the local economical disaster in the early 1990s. Now they let all those fleeing mobilization in, let them get employed, buy property, etc. It is just a recipe for getting annexed by Russia later. Allowing any Russian diaspora when you are a small country bordering Russia is not wise.
IIRC, we are talking about ~100K Russian citizens who stayed there and they keep incoming. It is a lot for a 4M country.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 19, 2023, 12:16:32 pm
Pentagon confirms that one Patriot system was lightly damaged in Ukrainian service and has been repaired.
I'm seeing sources elsewhere claiming the damage was self-inflicted - a rocket motor failed and a just-launched missile fell on the thing.
Post by: jipehog on May 19, 2023, 06:49:57 pm
Rewarding the local pro-Russian government for help in circumventing sanctions.Not gonna end well. I have Ukraine 2010-2013 flashbacks with a declared course to the West and de-facto closeness with Russia. May end in a similar way.Lets hope so, certainly something to keep track of.
Otherwise some other though no directly related news:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on May 20, 2023, 02:32:26 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 20, 2023, 02:56:00 am
It's starting to feel that this whole thing is gonna end with Russia turning into more China.
In the long run, China getting control (either directly or through very friendly new governments) over a huge chunk of Asian Russia is inevitable unless something really bad happens with China itself.
I also expect rapid and extensive Islamization in Russia. It is a matter of simple demographics. Not only local Muslims have higher birth rates, immigration from Central Asia will continue. Considering how malleable Russians are to even very basic propaganda, as soon as Islam will grow strong enough to get access to their state propaganda machine, we'll see millions of new converts.
Post by: KittyTac on May 20, 2023, 03:04:25 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 20, 2023, 03:22:31 am
Post by: KittyTac on May 20, 2023, 03:23:20 am
Post by: Starver on May 20, 2023, 07:56:36 am
Both sides (or at least their higher-ups, whatever those on the scene may think) seem to class it as a key objective, whether as a strategic aim, a stop-line or just the more obvious spot of land (amongst a whole front line of churned fields and blasted trees) where being entirely pock-marked with craters is preferable to a single bootprint being left upon it by The Enemy.
Not wanting to speak (again) on behalf of those with vastly more interest in the outcome, in any authoritative manner, just making broad-sweep statements to fill the gap/summarise prior comments.
Post by: Telgin on May 20, 2023, 10:38:30 am
According to my sources, the last remaining chunk of Bakhmut is lost but with the way how offensive on the flanks proceeds, it may be temporary and the battle for Bakhmut most definitely is not over.
This is surprising. I thought I'd read several times recently that Ukraine had retaken parts of the city. Or well, what's left of where the city used to be.
Post by: jipehog on May 20, 2023, 10:43:28 am
According to my sources, the last remaining chunk of Bakhmut is lost but with the way how offensive on the flanks proceeds, it may be temporary and the battle for Bakhmut most definitely is not over.Seem like it, here is the deep state map changes over this period:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Personally, I don't think that the counter offensive would materialize in Bakhmut, seem like the least advantageous place for it. I believe that Ukraine goal to stay in Bakhmut was to keep Russia engaged. If so then it works, Russia still expands resources and has pulled many reserves to support Bakhmut. Meanwhile the threat of encirclement from few month ago is gone and Ukrainian position is secure.
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 20, 2023, 01:30:12 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 20, 2023, 02:22:23 pm
Rail map:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 20, 2023, 04:23:04 pm
Bakhmut is a crucial logistic chokepoint for Russia, mainly. If they can hold enough ground to keep the rail station out of effective artillery range, it gives them pretty much unfettered logistic access to several important target cities.
Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 20, 2023, 04:32:36 pm
Bakhmut already entered new Ukrainian mythology and is going to stay there. Russians will forget about it in a few weeks.
Post by: jipehog on May 20, 2023, 04:59:34 pm
Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.Why?
Edit: btw, on unrelated matter, I just realized that Ukraine rail network is using the broad gauge like Russia.
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 20, 2023, 05:20:21 pm
Most of the important road and rail connections from the city go through liberated territory. When the battle for Bakhmut began, taking it would indeed have provided an extremely useful transit hub to secure further conquests, but now it is nearly useless in that role.I have no idea why you think this. It's now an extremely efficient opening toward conquering that territory.
I mean this is like saying "Ha! Now that the poison needle is through my skin, it has to travel through all my veins, and those are in my body!"
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 20, 2023, 05:38:16 pm
Most of the routes from Bakhmut have Ukrainian forces sitting on them. Therefore they are of absolutely zero use to Russia unless an offensive - a very large-scale offensive - removes said offensive. This isn't an RTS game where you take the supply point and suddenly get +4 to supply - you have to have the ability to move thing between one supply nexus and the other. Russia has a route into Bakhmut, but they don't have any secured routes out. They did have those routes when the battle for the city began.
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 20, 2023, 05:54:11 pm
Yes, that means an offensive, which is to be expected, given that this is a war and both sides have been making offensives. Conquering things requires attacking. The point is that the logistic support makes those offensives more effective.
It also looks like you're mostly wrong about the routes from Bakhmut having Ukrainian forces sitting on them (https://liveuamap.com/?zoom=11&ll=48.59477574898104,37.99140930175781), but as the most important route is probably going to be the one to the north, it's not that important.
Post by: Starver on May 20, 2023, 05:59:53 pm
Edit: btw, on unrelated matter, I just realized that Ukraine rail network is using the broad gauge like Russia.Fairly logical, as a legacy from being in the (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge#/media/File%3AWorld_RR_Gauge_Map.agr.png) Союз Советских Социалистических Республик... (Link found and added after the initial thoughts on the subject... some other very interesting details, that intrigue me, like what's the deal with Australia?)
What I find funny is that, right now, the Ukrainian rail system is considered more reliable and useful than the British one (it was before the war, but still active conflict is being handled better than pay/working-conditions disputes over here).
Post by: jipehog on May 20, 2023, 09:02:27 pm
That what he said. Armed Forces of Ukraine say Prigozhin wants to flee Bakhmut because Wagner Group is brokenPrigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tacticThat's a mental image I wasn't ready for.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403124/
Fairly logical, as a legacy from being in the (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Track_gauge#/media/File%3AWorld_RR_Gauge_Map.agr.png) Союз Советских Социалистических Республик... (Link found and added after the initial thoughts on the subject... some other very interesting details, that intrigue me, like what's the deal with Australia?)Yeah I knew it, but somehow I didn't think of it until now; Nice map; and that is what happens when you move from the universal horse ass measurement. (https://www.rosenblumtv.com/2009/07/what-does-a-horses-ass-have-to-do-with-the-space-shuttle/)
Post by: King Zultan on May 21, 2023, 03:31:21 am
HisThat what he said. Armed Forces of Ukraine say Prigozhin wants to flee Bakhmut because Wagner Group is brokenPrigozin is gaging on this Ukranian phallus of doom tacticThat's a mental image I wasn't ready for.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/05/20/7403124/
Post by: scriver on May 21, 2023, 03:34:37 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 21, 2023, 11:51:53 am
So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?
I expect Wagner to be rotated and get at least some rest (and the opportunity to spend earned money). Mercenaries were hired to capture the city and they did it. In their mind, their job is done. And I doubt that they are interested in a "sit in a half-destroyed city and die from artillery strikes" kind of contract.
People wrongly assume that Wagner is something like a paramilitary organization under the unified military command or even just a part of the Russian Armed Forces. No, they are not, they are merely cooperating with the Russian High Command, don't take orders from them.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 21, 2023, 04:27:29 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 21, 2023, 04:53:31 pm
hmm.. Amazing if true, but I have strong doubts.
Trains and trucks can stop. That means men and materiel can now move into Bakhmut, and all the fronts along the rail and roads coming out are now supplied by rail and road. Which tends to make those fronts move forward.True if they can utilize the rail network to Bakhmut, which I am not sure that they can atm. Their game plan was crippled by losses in the east, since then it felt like Russia just moving through inertia relying on brute force. From my reading of the map, the rail line to Bakhmut is essentially the frontline, easily observed and for tens of km is in range of not just HIMARs but even simple mortars..
Do we have any evidence that this line is used? for anything train to rail carts. (except as path to follow for retreaing Russian soldiers)
So speaking of troops sitting on routes, do you think them letting Wagner sit on Bakhmut while the Russian army retreats is to give the Russians time to prepare whatever the next defensive line will be?
Russia already have the cement cone" line they started their advance in the winter. Though I suspect that there is no shortage of trenches in between after almost a year of crawling advances
I expect Wagner to be rotated and get at least some rest (and the opportunity to spend earned money). Mercenaries were hired to capture the city and they did it.I think that Prigozin had an idea that quick victory would be a political ladder for him. Do you think that Moscow will let him pullout and regroup after all his ranting against the MoD and even grandpa ?
Post by: King Zultan on May 22, 2023, 03:06:54 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 05:34:12 am
__________
The Legion “Freedom of Russia” and the “Russian Volunteer Corps” are conducting an operation on the territory of the Belgorod oblast to create a “security strip” to protect Ukrainian civilians, Andrii Yusov, spokesman for the Main Intelligence Directorate, said. According to Yusov, only Russian citizens are taking part in the operation
Khe-khe-khe
Post by: Jerick on May 22, 2023, 08:48:42 am
I don't think this incursion is going to be too successful. I do however think it'll be the prelude to something beautiful.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 22, 2023, 08:52:46 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 09:02:36 am
Here's the thing just by being there they're doing tremendous damage to the Russian war effort. The Russian government cannot politically afford armed anti-government militias taking and holding territory. There are other anti-government groups that have been arming themselves this last while and if they see this invasion do well they'll be emboldened. For that and many other reasons, the Russian government can't allow this to have any appearance of success. If they get bogged down they lose. If they ignore it they lose. They're going to have to hit that incursion with overwhelming force and to do that they'll need to pull that force from somewhere. We all know Ukraine has been performing shaping operations and getting all their ducks in a row for a major offensive. This could pull a whole bunch of Russians away from the front.
I don't think this incursion is going to be too successful. I do however think it'll be the prelude to something beautiful.
I agree. I don't think that it is a serious attempt to hold territory and is more like a raid that will force Russians to transfer some troops needed elsewhere. I expect As soon as those will arrive, the "Freedom of Russia" legion will fall back.
As a nice bonus, some of the artillery that shelled the Ukrainian side from "safety" will be destroyed or captured
Post by: KittyTac on May 22, 2023, 09:52:48 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 10:21:16 am
Post by: jipehog on May 22, 2023, 11:07:58 am
Btw didn't Ukraine already started pilot training in the west over a month ago?
Post by: hector13 on May 22, 2023, 11:30:10 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 11:39:56 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 22, 2023, 01:16:04 pm
Haha, hilarious! Yes, go partisans! Bring the war home!
At the same time, if true, the people of Russia must really be made afraid by their propaganda of being invaded by nazi demons, that just a small attack on a border post sends them fleeing the region.
Post by: Starver on May 22, 2023, 01:25:06 pm
I wonder if there will be volunteer F-16 pilots\ground crews. Those would help a lot. Especially ground crews.Historic precedent..? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lafayette_Flying_Corps) And plenty of other "foreign volountary legions", before or after, and even on the ground in your current situation.
(But the skill-levels associated with fast-jet aircraft make it a bit more exclusive than merely making used of military-trained individuals who can pick up a rifle/etc. It'll be more provocative/dangerous in case of falling into the hands of Russia, too, alive or dead, so surely it'll not be sanctioned so readily. If it happens, it'll be more solid a political act than merely helping with training and transfer of materielle.)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 01:39:16 pm
According to the region's governor, most of the population of Belgorod has fled the region after the attacks on the border post.
Nah, he was speaking about Grayvoron*, a small town near the border not about the Belgorod city or the Belgorod Region
*Such a beautiful Ukrainian name meaning Rook (bird), all those villages and towns were Ukrainian not so long ago
Post by: jipehog on May 22, 2023, 03:04:21 pm
Btw there are some mentions of nuclear silos nearby, not sure how valid is that.
Otherwise I hope these guys have an exist strategy, I can't imagine them joyriding there for long.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 03:35:46 pm
1) Don't send reinforcements = Incursion will go deeper
2) Send some reinforcements = It will result in prolonged combat for some strategically useless villages
3) Send a lot = Enemy will just fall back to while you moved troops that are needed elsewhere
Post by: jipehog on May 22, 2023, 07:17:35 pm
Edit: I am not sure what their game plan but if they prolong this raid they risk having special forces drop special forces on them.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 22, 2023, 07:24:07 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 22, 2023, 07:29:13 pm
It was reported here they've already retreated.That is good to hear, I hope they brought up some goodies. Now rinse and repeat elsewhere?
And that they had support from at least a few tanks and helicoptersAny official sources? This could be the beginning of an interesting new phase.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 22, 2023, 07:32:47 pm
Any official sources?Nothing reliable in English. Just a local milblogger with good track record. More info should come up in a day or two.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 22, 2023, 08:06:49 pm
From my understanding this a small raiding party with no support. Do you believe they will fight or Russia need a lot to surround them?Yes, because America really whooped those Viet Cong, and Afghanistan is everyone's bitch...
Edit: I am not sure what their game plan but if they prolong this raid they risk having special forces drop special forces on them.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2023, 10:31:44 pm
Enemy of my enemy should have limitations and employing outright neo-nazies is giving a hand to Russian propaganda.
Post by: King Zultan on May 23, 2023, 01:59:27 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2023, 02:25:31 am
So are they actually anti-Russia people or is this another damned false flag?
Yes, they are actually anti-Russia people.
There is the "Freedom of Russia" legion which is based on Russian soldiers who switched sides early in the war + they are actively recruiting and training citizens of Russia growing in size. They also seem to be connected with some underground group(s) who make minor acts of sabotage in Russia.
And there is smaller "Russian Volunteer Corps" which consists of people who fled from Russia earlier and many of whom are fighting since 2014. It's core is anti-putin nationalist and they range from right-center-minded people to 100% pure white supremacist fascists of the "Breivik is a hero" variety.
Both groups are receiving equipment and training from Ukraine and take part in the fighting, for example, they were in Bakhmut for some time. Both are doing this incursion into the Belgorod thing now and, AFAIK, they didn't pull back yet.
We are supporting many different units of this kind. We have several Chechen volunteer units, Karelian separatists, Bashkir separatists, Turkic speaking unit for Tatars and Caucasians, etc
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 23, 2023, 04:44:37 am
our own version of Bid Laden
They're wealthy foreign nobles that have a vested interest in destabilizing your region?
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2023, 05:45:44 am
our own version of Bid Laden
They're wealthy foreign nobles that have a vested interest in destabilizing your region?
OK, it is not AS stupid as empowering Bin Laden...
_________________
Meanwhile, they didn't retreat overnight. Imagine USA or China or any competent country being "invaded" by around 150 armed men and being unable to squash them in 24 hours
Yes, I remember that Ukraine failed this task in 2014 spectacularly but we were in a deep political crisis and had two decades of "we don't need an army, who can attack us" mentality.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 23, 2023, 06:06:42 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 23, 2023, 06:28:46 am
our own version of Bid Laden
They're wealthy foreign nobles that have a vested interest in destabilizing your region?
OK, it is not AS stupid as empowering Bin Laden...
The point I was making is that nobody "empowered" Bin Laden. He was a third side in the Soviet-Afghan War, funded almost entirely by his portion of the family fortune and supplied by arms dealers. The popular myth that US aid created him as a power to be reckoned with is just that - a myth. He never received any.
The post-Soviet civil war was caused primarily by Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin, a group which also didn't get significant US aid during the Soviet-Afghan war. They got most of their support from Pakistan directly, not Pakistan as an intermediary. The post-war Taliban didn't directly arise from this group, but had similar ideology and cannibalized their internal and foreign support base.
The groups that did get US aid formed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban and remain US allies, even if they are now effectively insurgent groups once more.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2023, 07:54:16 am
"Ukrainians, how can you demand that we fight against Putin's regime? We have no weapons and no combat experience"
*Ukrainians train and arm some guys and help them get across the border*
"What are you doing!? You are playing straight into Putin's propaganda! Stop!"
Post by: jipehog on May 23, 2023, 07:54:34 am
apples and orangesFrom my understanding this a small raiding party with no support. Do you believe they will fight or Russia need a lot to surround them?Yes, because America really whooped those Viet Cong, and Afghanistan is everyone's bitch...
Edit: I am not sure what their game plan but if they prolong this raid they risk having special forces drop special forces on them.
those look like our own version of Bid Laden, someone who will be a problem for Ukraine and the world in the future.Speaking of according to Meduza: Russia's FSB Sent Ex-Islamic State Fighters to Infiltrate Ukraine, Turkey, U.S. (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/russias-fsb-sent-ex-islamic-state-fighters-to-infiltrate-ukraine-turkey-us-meduza-a81152)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2023, 10:35:40 am
Post by: EuchreJack on May 23, 2023, 11:20:59 am
Your bets - Will Belgorod rebels capture the base with tactical nukes (artillery shells) on it? Belgorod People's Republic may join the nuclear club.Probably not?
They seem smart enough to avoid hard targets like military bases with tactical nukes.
...then again, if the base's commander switches sides, it's a whole new ballgame.
I think most Americans misunderstood the significance of George Washington. He wasn't some saintly political dynamo.
He was the highest ranking member of the British Military that "turned rebel".
I think most Americans also misunderstand the significance of George Washington dying two years after his Presidency ended peacefully, and that most people are ill for a time before they die...
Post by: jipehog on May 23, 2023, 01:38:28 pm
Edit: btw this is (https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1660971838418059268?s=20) the sort of sabotage I like to read about. I get the propaganda value here of Russians finally feeling the war comes to them, but undercover small teams can make a hell of more damage smoking.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2023, 02:16:09 pm
So what is the latest on our raiding party?
A lot of fog of war and disinformation from both sides, both the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom Legion claim that they are still there. Russians, of course, claim that EVERYONE was killed. Russians also presented photos of some captured American-made MRAPs but considering that those are in rather good condition and with no corpses attached, those are suspicious.
Post by: heydude6 on May 23, 2023, 02:17:16 pm
I think most Americans also misunderstand the significance of George Washington dying two years after his Presidency ended peacefully, and that most people are ill for a time before they die...
Are you saying Washington got assasinated or are you saying he was hiding a lethal illness during his final term?
Post by: EuchreJack on May 23, 2023, 04:36:27 pm
My suspicious is that he was hiding an illness during at least part of his final term. And back then, that could be lethal.I think most Americans also misunderstand the significance of George Washington dying two years after his Presidency ended peacefully, and that most people are ill for a time before they die...
Are you saying Washington got assasinated or are you saying he was hiding a lethal illness during his final term?
Assassination wouldn't fit the timeline: He was OUT for about 2 years prior to dying.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 23, 2023, 04:40:00 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 23, 2023, 05:11:54 pm
It is well documented that George Washington spent most of his life as a very sick man.Yes, there's a famous anecdote regarding his health pertaining to the Newburgh Address in 1783, when he addressed near-mutinous officers of the Continental Army. Supposedly, the sight of his weakness and aging, which he attributed to the effort he'd spent in service of the Revolution, moved them to accept his urging to wait patiently for the Congress to get around to paying them, preventing a likely military coup.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 24, 2023, 03:12:05 am
Post by: King Zultan on May 24, 2023, 03:25:26 am
Your bets - Will Belgorod rebels capture the base with tactical nukes (artillery shells) on it? Belgorod People's Republic may join the nuclear club.And then they get there and realize that all the nukes that were supposed to be in there are actually cardboard cut outs.
Post by: martinuzz on May 24, 2023, 05:37:34 am
But who would be so dumb to purchase property that was expropriated in Crimea?
Everyone with only half a brain cell knows that when Ukraine liberates Crimea, that they will not only lose their illegally acquired property, but they will probably also be hanged, shot and decapitated in no particular order.
Post by: Starver on May 24, 2023, 06:08:18 am
The market will be within Russia, probably, where the hope/belief in their legitimacy will be the greatest. Or someone forced to 'do a Musk' and put previously promised moneys where their mouth is ("You do believe in our government, don't you? And you with still a spare billion or two in the banks that we haven't yet 'pursuaded' you to donate. And what would be better than some prime real-estate in a traditionally quite nice area...")
At a long-shot, maybe someone like the Chinese State could be pursuaded to lay claim, if it's handy for (future) use. But that's a dangerous game given how China is effectively "lend-leasing" its way into so many third-world territories, grabbing its B&R system back. Would they consider the opportunity of going straight to (nominal) ownership, with contingency if it turns out to be a reclaimed lemon?
Post by: jipehog on May 24, 2023, 08:54:54 am
So what is the latest on our raiding party?
A lot of fog of war and disinformation from both sides, both the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom Legion claim that they are still there. Russians, of course, claim that EVERYONE was killed. Russians also presented photos of some captured American-made MRAPs but considering that those are in rather good condition and with no corpses attached, those are suspicious.
Here is my take:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Regardless, I love that Russia get to enjoy its own brew of "gray zone" tactics. And glad that Russian red lines are slowly eroding and hope that soon more serious fighting can be taken to Russia proper.
Edit:
In a recent interview, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner lost 20K KIA in the battle for Bakhmut: 10K of core fighters and 10K of convicts. Also, he claimed 50K KIA on the Ukrainian side to make it sound like an epic victory.
He also seem to admit that Russia's plan to 'demilitarize' Ukraine Has failed. And that: "We are at such a point that we could f**king lose Russia -- that is the main problem.... We need to impose martial law,"
I love this guy, he does to much damage Russian best laid propaganda efforts, however, he is also dangerous I hope that if worse for Russia does comes he get thrown out of the window.
Edit2: Here is part of Prigozin interview for fun: https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/anzEXEB_460svav1.mp4
Post by: EuchreJack on May 24, 2023, 11:24:42 am
It'll be like "War bonds", I suppose. Betting on the investment going good due to theI could see People's Republic of China buying up some of the land, putting their people on the land, then forcing the victor to either negotiate with them or evict them.warspecial military operation not going completely about-face.
The market will be within Russia, probably, where the hope/belief in their legitimacy will be the greatest. Or someone forced to 'do a Musk' and put previously promised moneys where their mouth is ("You do believe in our government, don't you? And you with still a spare billion or two in the banks that we haven't yet 'pursuaded' you to donate. And what would be better than some prime real-estate in a traditionally quite nice area...")
At a long-shot, maybe someone like the Chinese State could be pursuaded to lay claim, if it's handy for (future) use. But that's a dangerous game given how China is effectively "lend-leasing" its way into so many third-world territories, grabbing its B&R system back. Would they consider the opportunity of going straight to (nominal) ownership, with contingency if it turns out to be a reclaimed lemon?
If they don't buy enough, it just might end up being China's embassy in Ukraine after the War.
It would probably benefit Russia to let China buy as much property as China wants.
Post by: Starver on May 24, 2023, 11:53:18 am
Though I think that's not the more obvious outcome. More likely that some oligarch is invited to exchange ready cash for some place they can build a sprawling low-rise[1] dacha on, for the good of their health. One way or another.
[1] No high windows, certainly.
Post by: Jopax on May 24, 2023, 02:27:37 pm
Also what exactly would China stand to gain from such a purchase, other than a shitton of bad blood with Ukraine and bad press around the world. If Russia loses it will be in a position where China doesn't need to cozy up to them or even pretend they're anything other than their bitch at that point.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 24, 2023, 02:59:32 pm
One thing I really dislike is that they used American MRAPs and lost some of them there. I somehow suspect that the USA never gave permission of using American gear for this kind of operation.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 24, 2023, 03:08:44 pm
Yeah fairly certain Ukraine could just go "Any land exchanges made while the region was under hostile occupation are null and void" before returning shit to its previous state.Well, things are never quite that simple.
Also what exactly would China stand to gain from such a purchase, other than a shitton of bad blood with Ukraine and bad press around the world. If Russia loses it will be in a position where China doesn't need to cozy up to them or even pretend they're anything other than their bitch at that point.
Possession is 9/10ths of the law, after all.
Mostly, it would be a foothold that People's Republic of China could use as leverage. China could even get GOOD relations by turning it over to Ukraine and claiming they were "just holding it" until Ukraine restored it's sovereign breakaway province, being sympathetic to that sort of thing.
So the raid in the Belgorod region is officially over. It was a weird one for sure. I don't think that it was a huge success in terms of actual damage to Russian forces but the propaganda value is high and it will likely force Russians to keep more forces on the border.Well, they never were going to get "Official Approval" for any equipment used to cross the Russian border.
One thing I really dislike is that they used American MRAPs and lost some of them there. I somehow suspect that the USA never gave permission of using American gear for this kind of operation.
While I bemoan US equipment ending up in Russian hands, it's really not different from when it's used officially by Ukraine, just the risks are higher. Hopefully, the rebels blew up enough stuff to make it worthwhile. It also highlights how important it is for Russia to keep forces off the front lines to stop that sort of thing in the future.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 24, 2023, 03:25:15 pm
Quote
Well, they never were going to get "Official Approval" for any equipment used to cross the Russian border.
Yes, but we have more than enough local\captured Russian equipment to use. I don't understand why those weren't used instead. Don't think that it is that big of a deal but it looks like a mistake and I think there was\will be an angry private request to not do this anymore.
Known equipment losses are there - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/the-ballad-of-belgorod-listing.html (Oryx is so epic). There are also rumors that a valuable Russian R-330ZH Zhitel truck-mounted jamming communication station was captured during the raid but I have seen no reliable proof of this. + Russian border control post is looted of everything valuable including an undisclosed number of POWs
Post by: jipehog on May 24, 2023, 03:56:12 pm
Known equipment losses are there - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/05/the-ballad-of-belgorod-listing.html (Oryx is so epic).I am not sure how accurate this list though. Do they do any verification except image comparison and possibly geolocation? The one I do trust is the destroyed vehicles left in front of the building, there is collaborating video of these from before. Not sure about captured vehicles either from video I saw at least on of the groups hiked back on foot to Ukraine.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 24, 2023, 09:35:08 pm
Post by: jipehog on May 25, 2023, 11:21:14 pm
Post by: King Zultan on May 26, 2023, 12:56:57 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 26, 2023, 01:37:57 am
But even then I had not a single doubt that Russia made an irreversible step to its destruction.
Post by: jipehog on May 26, 2023, 09:05:52 am
Starting to look like it'll be down hill for Russia form here.Lets hope so, but its best not to underestimate any enemy, let alone Russia. Despite some very good indicators for Ukraine, I am still uncertain about Ukraine ability to push out Russia certainly in the near term.
Speaking of Lukashenko says Russia Has Begun Moving Nuclear Weapons to Belarus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/25/wagner-group-boss-forces-leaving-bakhmut-yevgeny-prigozhin)
Post by: jipehog on May 26, 2023, 06:29:19 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn8icDIYNd4
The ZSU Present: Taking out the Trash
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCja2kOCvfw
Post by: King Zultan on May 27, 2023, 02:36:00 am
Speaking of Lukashenko says Russia Has Begun Moving Nuclear Weapons to Belarus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/25/wagner-group-boss-forces-leaving-bakhmut-yevgeny-prigozhin)Well that certainly doesn't sound good, hopefully it's just some bullshit or cardboard cut outs.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 27, 2023, 10:02:32 am
Russians, this is how you do motivational war propaganda. (It has too many "Holy army of God" vibes for anti-theistic me but it is epic)
Post by: jipehog on May 27, 2023, 11:48:48 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
more actions from Belgorod (with constant harassments ) to an attempt on Ivan khurs.
Post by: jipehog on May 27, 2023, 02:03:53 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official
Btw there are a lot of talks about Zaporizhzhya. Ukraine says that Russia could cause an incident in the nuclear power plant in a bid to thwart the expected counteroffensive by Ukraine
Post by: EuchreJack on May 27, 2023, 02:30:24 pm
Post by: King Zultan on May 28, 2023, 03:04:50 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 28, 2023, 03:09:54 am
Things blowing up there could still trigger a horrible disaster.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 28, 2023, 03:30:18 am
I have a feeling that nuclear plant is gonna be a smoking ruin by the time this is all over.
Smoking ruin is extremely unlikely, but "minor" accident(s) are quite possible. Making the territory of the plant itself radioactive will benefit Russia both short term (delay the advance) and long term (make the further operation of the plant problematic)
Nova Kakhovka Dam is another thing that worries me. Russians may blow it up should we try to cross the Dnipro in the Kherson area.
Post by: jipehog on May 28, 2023, 07:04:49 am
I'm reasonably sure the "Counteroffensive" is going to be a probing attack that does well enough that it needs more support to maintain momentum.yeah, it will be a Schrodinger's counter-offensive. This time its tougher as there are no Kherson like area where Ukraine have an overwhelming conditions in its favor, with several lines fortifications in each direction and Russia managing to solve its critical shortage of manpower. Likely Ukraine will be focusing on grinding Russian forces capabilities trying to set the conditions for victory in any of their planned venues of advance and attempt to exploit any weakness.
Post by: jipehog on May 28, 2023, 09:48:50 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Ukrainian war song about trench warfare "Me, my buddy and 2 shovels" - nice chorus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9rljnSnIH8
Some footage of fighting over the access to Bakhmut, in sense its more gritty but less action packed than most
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LulaA-U7-M
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2023, 12:25:05 am
It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.
I bet on the false flag because Russia is ramping out terror attacks on Kyiv with Shaheds and they need to feed "Ukrainians do that too." whataboutism.
Post by: King Zultan on May 30, 2023, 01:40:08 am
So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...I'm guessing it's another false flag since Russia did this recently, not sure why they decided to do it again.
It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2023, 02:51:47 am
So, according to Russian sources, around a dozen of small drones "attacked" the Moscow region with a few of them hitting random buildings. Yeah, it is exactly how Ukraine uses those and it is entirely consistent with our strategy...I'm guessing it's another false flag since Russia did this recently, not sure why they decided to do it again.
It is either a false flag or some local group that knows nothing about how to use their resources effectively.
Well, some drones are definitely Ukrainian-made and not of the type Russia could capture intact, so I must change my assessment. I am curious what where the targets
Post by: martinuzz on May 30, 2023, 05:08:16 am
Post by: jipehog on May 30, 2023, 06:56:58 am
This month Russia have conducted almost daily strikes against Ukraine with drones and missiles, the vast majority of which have been shoot down. I am not sure what their goal is in focusing on civilian rather than military targets at time when Ukraine is ramping up its attacks. Maybe its just psychological warfare or an attempt to exhaust American patriot system or ???
Meanwhile Ukraine had some really nice success recently, not sure if its great intelligence or luck but reportedly the have made several strikes in which over 100 Russian solders were killed each time (conservative estimate)
[1] In recent days we seen several attempts of Ukraine to hit infrastructure buildings deeper inside Russia including around Moscow, not always successfuly for example (https://youtu.be/RBLeHGBH--A?t=176). They are intentionally using long range drones rather than western weapons.
Btw how Ukraine operates drones at distances of 500km+? local operators? intermediary drones for signal boost? sat connection?
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2023, 09:05:58 am
False flag is not unlikely. Perhaps to dissuade Western nations from providing long range weapons.
It is not and it was my initial assumption but looking at the available evidence including some hints from guys who specialize in crowdfunding drones, I think it is a legit Ukrainian attack. It is of dubious effectiveness (Like those naval drones that fail to do real damage again and again. Last one, most likely, Mark14ed instead of adding to the Russian underwater fleet) but I think it is our attack that will not be publically admitted anytime soon.
Post by: jipehog on May 30, 2023, 09:41:02 am
Assume that much like with drone over Kremlin case, when Russia claimed it intended to assassinate Putin (it was so low yield that even if Putin was spending the night in there, he had to get out climb to flag poll and try to play catch with it to get hurt ::) ) there is much hyperboly and framing here with Moscow trying to establishing false equivalence with their terrorist reign. (EDIT: beside the obvious threats of nuclear response )
I think it is a legit Ukrainian attack. It is of dubious effectiveness (Like those naval drones that fail to do real damage again and again. Last one, most likely, Mark14ed instead of adding to the Russian underwater fleet) but I think it is our attack that will not be publically admitted anytime soon.The recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2023, 09:57:19 am
Quote
The recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Yes, it returned to Sevastopol with no visible damage. Considering that there was a video of how a drone rammed it, the only logical assumption is that it failed to detonate.
Post by: jipehog on May 30, 2023, 10:01:27 am
Post by: EuchreJack on May 30, 2023, 11:40:11 am
Forcing it to return to port is still a win.QuoteThe recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Yes, it returned to Sevastopol with no visible damage. Considering that there was a video of how a drone rammed it, the only logical assumption is that it failed to detonate.
Also "no visible damage"
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 30, 2023, 12:18:57 pm
QuoteThe recent attack against the Russia naval ship manage to score a hit, forcing it to return into the safety of Sevastopol. Otherwise, I don't know what is the target/goal of the attack, or how many drones were involved beyond what was reported on Russian media.
Yes, it returned to Sevastopol with no visible damage. Considering that there was a video of how a drone rammed it, the only logical assumption is that it failed to detonate.
The only photos showing no damage that were not confirmed to be older were of the wrong side of the ship. We have no evidence other than Russia's strident claims that there was no damage.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2023, 02:36:58 pm
Yes! Please! Do this! I want to enjoy the chaos!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 30, 2023, 02:43:47 pm
Post by: Starver on May 30, 2023, 04:06:48 pm
I don't know how much "civilian use uncertainty" they add (without actually reading the link I added) or whatever other ephemeral adjustments they might use to degrade their enemies' use of it (I can pick up the signals for use on my own GPS apps, certainly a couple of them, but never taken note of if they're used much vs. GPS and the other systems apparently out there).
But Russia will have the entire "civilian system kill switch" ability on those, at least, even if they have to stick to just jamming the US system (and any other up/downlink comms) within various 'protected areas'. Assuming they aren't equipping too much of their(/Wagner's) troops with civilian-only 'GPS' units, like was the issue with the US in Gulf War I.
Post by: jipehog on May 30, 2023, 09:57:03 pm
Quote
Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyev, however, claimed that Ukraine launched 32 drones of which some targeted the prestigious neighborhood of Rublyovka in Moscow Oblast.[2] A Russian independent outlet claimed that the drone strikes predominantly targeted areas near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novo-Ogaryovo and other elite neighborhoods in Moscow Oblast.[3] Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that several buildings in Moscow suffered minor damage, and Russian sources amplified footage of a minor explosion in the Novaya Moskva neighborhood.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that drones flying over Moscow resembled Ukrainian attack drones.[5] Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shooting down drones identified as Ukrainian by OSINT accounts in several different areas of Moscow and Moscow Oblast.[6]Seems more likely that it was an attack on Moscow. Meanwhile fighting continues in Belgorod (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/30/one-killed-several-wounded-after-shelling-on-belgorod-evacuee-shelter-governor-a81335) in what the governor recently described as 'de facto state of war'.
EDIT: Although according to the Ukrainian version (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gS0873Lxsi8) it was military base that was targeted in Moscow.
Regardless, I like how Russian position is being undermined as Ukraine slowly shifting the fighting to Russia own back yard. I suspect this will make many of Russia's stated apolitical citizens more involved.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 30, 2023, 11:21:17 pm
The fact that Moscow is insisting that it's Ukraine means it's probably partisans. You can tell the nature of things by what Moscow doesn't want to admit.
...I do note these events seem to coincide with the Russian Front being suicide for the press ganged Russians and the civilians being required to work more for the same amount of money. I'm thinking some of the young people aren't putting up with that crap anymore.
If you give no other options, people will resist fiercely.
(https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-confront-them-with-annihilation-and-they-will-then-survive-plunge-them-into-a-deadly-sun-tzu-54-43-91.jpg)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 31, 2023, 12:31:13 am
Quote
Both those recent actions sound more like things that a group given equipment by Ukraine would do, instead of Ukraine itself.
The fact that Moscow is insisting that it's Ukraine means it's probably partisans. You can tell the nature of things by what Moscow doesn't want to admit.
It looks like the intended targets of those drones were in Rublyovka (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rublyovka) and other Moscow suburbs where rich people live. This kind of target is very logical for a partisan group, especially one with a left ideology.
Unsurprisingly, the air defense in that area is rather good. I hope they'll bring even more pulling away from other places.
Post by: jipehog on May 31, 2023, 12:46:18 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on May 31, 2023, 03:21:17 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 31, 2023, 06:40:51 am
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 31, 2023, 10:07:48 am
Post by: jipehog on May 31, 2023, 12:08:33 pm
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/31/russia-lays-mines-at-industrial-level-ahead-of-ukrainian-counteroffensive-a81345
Post by: lemon10 on May 31, 2023, 12:15:56 pm
https://i.imgur.com/y4r4Quo.mp4
(I tried to post it using the code for an image but it just disappeared, not sure if there is a better way to do it)
Post by: Starver on May 31, 2023, 01:25:33 pm
This feels relevant.MP4 is (most often) video and audio... Without going there, are you sure what it actually is?
https://i.imgur.com/y4r4Quo.mp4
(I tried to post it using the code for an image but it just disappeared, not sure if there is a better way to do it)
(edit: That is, if someone's using it as an image container, it's probably well beyond what this SMF forum's code recognises as a legitimate image-embed.)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 31, 2023, 01:51:14 pm
It's what Medvedev does. His role us to spout extreme hyperbolic crap, so that the official Russian stance may seem more moderate and sensible.
And he was assigned this role after Zhyrinovsky died. Before that Medvedev never produced this level of nonsense.
Post by: King Zultan on June 01, 2023, 12:25:39 am
According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Post by: lemon10 on June 01, 2023, 12:36:09 am
MP4 is (most often) video and audio... Without going there, are you sure what it actually is?*Shrugs*
Of course I know that it isn't actually an image as a MP4 in the same way that GIFs aren't images either. However the forum IMG tag works for them just fine, so I figured I would try it out.
I was just wondering if there was an alternate way to post them on this forum using some other tag even though I figured that it *probably* wasn't possible.
Post by: martinuzz on June 01, 2023, 02:49:44 am
I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Post by: Strongpoint on June 01, 2023, 05:07:51 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 01, 2023, 05:27:16 am
Post by: Starver on June 01, 2023, 06:24:52 am
(Reply too long and meta, PMing instead.)MP4 is (most often) video and audio... Without going there, are you sure what it actually is?*Shrugs*
[..]
(edit: But, in short, probably not possible in any current way. Could technically be allowed to work, otherwise, but probably won't be.)
Post by: jipehog on June 01, 2023, 07:02:07 am
Liberty of Russia and VRC are raiding Belgorod again, now with serious artillery support.
Russia already claimed they repealed the attackers and kill gazillion of them.
Meanwhile here a video from last raid, apparently they managed to stay there for three days:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/13sdg5t/legion_freedom_of_russia_showed_footage_of/
Post by: Strongpoint on June 01, 2023, 09:17:11 am
(Video of Kadyrov's guy criticizing Prigozhin)
*Grabs popcorn*
Post by: EuchreJack on June 01, 2023, 03:17:20 pm
Britain never did anything when Russia's FSB killed someone with poison on British soil.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Post by: hector13 on June 01, 2023, 03:52:46 pm
Britain never did anything when Russia's FSB killed someone with poison on British soil.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
That’s not true. The biggest thing the UK and various other countries - including the US - did was expelling in total 153 diplomats suspected of being part of Russian intelligence spy networks, among other things like freezing accounts.
What were they supposed to do though? The person who died picked up a bottle of perfume from a bin that happened to be a potent nerve toxin, and the target was a Russian defector. Regardless of success in killing the target, the idea is to spread fear among other defectors, and more importantly, people thinking of defecting that they’re not safe anywhere. Nobody will start a war - never mind a war with a nuclear power! - over that.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 01, 2023, 03:59:30 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 01, 2023, 04:17:38 pm
In recent month we seen an uptick in drone[1] and sabotage attack against infrastructure inside Russia including military industrial complex, ammo and fuel depots, refineries, logistics like rail, air force bases etc. The recent attack in Moscow main effect is mostly symbolic in nature, it shows Putin military might at its nakedness undermining the Russian propaganda narrative and Putin power base at home, hopefully it will force Russia to improve defenses taking away resources from the front.
[1] The west didn't provide very long range weapons to Ukraine and secured a promise that they won't be used inside Russia, this is why all the fancy named tech land inside occupied Ukraine, and Ukrainian long range drones are sent inside Russia.
Post by: King Zultan on June 02, 2023, 01:48:36 am
I don't think Russia has the balls to do that.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Post by: EuchreJack on June 02, 2023, 08:10:10 am
It's possible Russia is just preparing for the scenario that their indiscriminate missile/artillery attacks into Ukraine's residential areas accidentally kills a visiting foreign dignitary.I don't think Russia has the balls to do that.I've never seen MP4 used as an image format before.Obviously just for saying it, nah. But if they actually do attack and kill a British official? I guess it depends if that happens on NATO soil or not.According to Dmitri Medvedev, the UK is waging 'an undeclared war against Russia'. He says that British officials who are in any way aiding Ukraine in it's fight are 'legitimate military targets'.I doubt they're gonna invoke article 5 because of that, especially since Russia has been saying shit like that the entire war.
According to Medvedev, the UK is 'an eternal enemy' of Russia.
Inb4 article 5
Post by: jipehog on June 02, 2023, 12:42:34 pm
https://twitter.com/GwarWorin/status/1664678419475443712
Post by: jipehog on June 02, 2023, 05:57:59 pm
Quote
Blinken: ‘A ceasefire that simply freezes current lines in place and enables Putin to consolidate control over the territory he’s seized, and then rest, re-arm, and re-attack — that is not a just and lasting peace. It’s a Potemkin peace.’I can't agree more.
Post by: martinuzz on June 02, 2023, 09:11:42 pm
We can not allow a extremist nazi country like Russia to get away with land grab, consolidate and re-arm just because the retard fuckers have nukes.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 03, 2023, 03:53:46 am
Their only chance is to use useful idiots to push for ceasefire.
Also, Russia is extremely unready for any internal unrest. Their army has no slightest idea how to fight insurgents. Their only working tactic is razing settlements to the ground and they are actively using it on Russian villages in the Belgorod region now. Won't work in Moscow
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 03, 2023, 05:16:37 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 04, 2023, 08:48:56 am
They set a deadline of 5 hours. If they haven't had a personal conversation with the governor by then, the soldiers will be executed.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 04, 2023, 10:54:46 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 04, 2023, 01:17:00 pm
'“Today until 17:00 you have the opportunity to communicate without weapons and take home two Russian citizens, ordinary soldiers whom you and your political leadership sent to the slaughter,” read a joint statement posted along with the video.' So they in fact are saying they are in favor of the soldiers' lives.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 04, 2023, 04:26:30 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/04/pro-ukraine-group-of-russian-partisans-will-hand-captured-soldiers-to-kyiv (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/04/pro-ukraine-group-of-russian-partisans-will-hand-captured-soldiers-to-kyiv)
The real question is whether the partisans will get the same treatment if they're captured. My guess is....no
Post by: Strongpoint on June 04, 2023, 11:32:39 pm
One impression I have from reading the Russian "patriotic" part of social media is that they despise their own army for the failure to defeat such an inferior opponent as Ukraine. It will be so fun when they'll come back home with PTSD and get a "you are a pathetic loser" attitude from friends and relatives.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 05, 2023, 12:38:36 am
Wagner's myth will probably grow, and the conventional army will probably find their veterans joining anti-government factions for support.
Post by: jipehog on June 05, 2023, 03:28:00 am
Post by: King Zultan on June 05, 2023, 05:34:21 am
It's fine.Putin's been the dog from that meme the entire war.
Post by: Jerick on June 05, 2023, 06:11:08 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2023, 09:15:12 am
Russia, Belgorod: It's fine.
It is quite funny there. Looks like Russia is unwilling to divert substantial forces to guard the area. But RDK and the legion can't do a large offensive either. Few hundred men are not enough to take territory
An interesting option would be to add our Chechens (those who are citizens of the RF) to the mix but... Russian far rights and former Russian soldiers won't mix well with those guys
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2023, 10:03:43 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 05, 2023, 10:42:06 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2023, 10:56:00 pm
Why? Did Ukraine attempted anything? What would be the effects down stream? Also any chance of surprising advantages up stream?
There were unconfirmed reports that we captured some islands downstream and it must be a pre-planned response to that.
I honestly don't care about military implications much right now... My mind is preoccupied with the humanitarian and ecological damage this will cause. Luckily Kherson is located on a high bank and won't be flooded that much but local villages... especially on the Russia-occupied side.
Also, I have no idea where Southern Ukraine will get water from
Post by: jipehog on June 05, 2023, 11:23:08 pm
There were unconfirmed reports that we captured some islands downstream and it must be a pre-planned response to that.When? anything public?
Otherwise just the other week Ukraine claimed that Russia is planning to stage an accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which would force an international involvement that would force hostilities to be stopped. Would a humanitarian crisis achieve the same goal? (iirc from last time this was succeed, it was said that it could affect Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power plant and have consequence for Crimea)
Military wise, this would prevent any invasion from Kherson and would reduce the front for Russia.
Post by: Bralbaard on June 06, 2023, 01:17:33 am
(Edited to make it clear I was referring to the nuclear power plant upstream, the hydroelectric plant is obviously beyond saving. )
Post by: jipehog on June 06, 2023, 01:35:52 am
Post by: Bralbaard on June 06, 2023, 02:25:02 am
Dams don't typically do that though, just think about how many major dams randomly do that in an average year. Not many, if any.
The timing of it, one day after the offensive has started would be ridiculous. I'm 100% certain this is deliberate misinformation being spammed to the internet.
Post by: King Zultan on June 06, 2023, 02:30:07 am
Post by: jipehog on June 06, 2023, 02:36:41 am
Dams don't typically do that thoughTypically no but https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1665915785707921408
personally, I blaming the invaders no matter what.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 02:44:59 am
This is a very dangerous escalation, I hope they can save the power plant and as many lives as possible. The only good outcome might be that Russia's allies might see it as a red line.
Nope. The power Station is gone
Quoting Ukrhydroenergo, our state-owned hydropower company
"Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. As a result of the detonation of the engine room from the inside, the Kakhovka HPP was completely destroyed. The station cannot be restored."
The extent of damage is such that it couldn't be a natural failure caused by neglect or be a result of a Ukrainian strike, multiple sections of the dam are gone.
Post by: Bralbaard on June 06, 2023, 03:08:43 am
This is a very dangerous escalation, I hope they can save the power plant and as many lives as possible. The only good outcome might be that Russia's allies might see it as a red line.
Nope. The power Station is gone
Quoting Ukrhydroenergo, our state-owned hydropower company
"Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. As a result of the detonation of the engine room from the inside, the Kakhovka HPP was completely destroyed. The station cannot be restored."
The extent of damage is such that it couldn't be a natural failure caused by neglect or be a result of a Ukrainian strike, multiple sections of the dam are gone.
Ah sorry for that, I was talking about the nuclear power plant upstream, but that was indeed not clear, will edit the post for clarity.
Post by: brewer bob on June 06, 2023, 03:10:59 am
Blowing up a dam is pretty much like using a WMD.
At least Zaporizhzhia shouldn't be at immediate risk, if Ukrainian and UN experts are to be trusted.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 03:42:21 am
Post by: Jerick on June 06, 2023, 07:33:46 am
Though to me the rushed effort to create propaganda of it pretty much confirms to me that this is Russia's doing. And the particularly rushed nature of it makes me feel it was typical Russian incompetence that caused the failure and now in typical Russian fashion they're racing to assign blame away from them.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 07:43:36 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on June 06, 2023, 07:46:05 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 11:50:43 am
I live on the black sea coast... Oh no, not Chernobyl again! I don't wanna eat irradiated finduk!
That will come later when retreating Russians will blow up the NPP. Let's hope they'll merely destroy the engine room and the cooling system causing a minor local radioactive pollution, not annihilate the reactors.
Post by: hector13 on June 06, 2023, 12:40:10 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 06, 2023, 12:46:00 pm
Russians continue to be weird and incompetent with their propaganda; Here's a video supposedly from the dam's destruction from Russian sources (https://twitter.com/i/status/1665948974056873984).If its real, maybe those are mines? Russia have made extensive use of mines around its defensive positions, in recent month some minefields were flooded and strong water flow may have disturbed them causing detonations.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 12:49:36 pm
Unfortunately I think destroying the dam is the first step in that. Doesn’t that dam supply water to cool the the plant at zaporzhizhia(sp?)?
Yes, but its own cooling pool is full, water still can be pumped and it is currently turned off requiring far less cooling than during active operation.
I don't think that this NPP will ever produce electricity again but I still think that a nuclear disaster is unlikely (but far from impossible)
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 06, 2023, 12:53:12 pm
lots of misinformation being spread about that currently, varying from the obvious "Russia did it", "Ukraine did it" to apparently a lot of the "dam decided to give out on it's own"
Dams don't typically do that though, just think about how many major dams randomly do that in an average year. Not many, if any.
The timing of it, one day after the offensive has started would be ridiculous. I'm 100% certain this is deliberate misinformation being spammed to the internet.
The only reason dams don't collapse like this routinely is that the dam operators drain excess water via spillways. If you plug the spillways on, say, the Hoover Dam and let it fill up to the point water is going over the top, it's going to fail. As for the specific timing, the ground drying enough for an offensive also matches well to the time when the reservoir fills up enough to present an existential threat to the dam. It just failing now is entirely plausible within dam science.
It's Russia's fault either way - either they blew it up, or they neglected to operate it correctly until it failed.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 01:06:29 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 06, 2023, 01:11:26 pm
The only reason dams don't collapse like this routinely is that the dam operators drain excess water via spillways.Over the past however many months there have been reports of water being occasionally released from the dam to keep the water levels downstream high. I don't think they'd forget they can do it just now. Besides, the timing is just too on point to be accidental.
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 06, 2023, 02:45:07 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2023, 03:46:22 pm
Damage to nature will be colossal, there will be endemic species that will go extinct in that area.
Post by: jipehog on June 07, 2023, 12:23:59 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Here is an freedom of Russia legion interview with a Russian captive after an attack that clearly didn't well
https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/comments/142nvwe/translated_the_freedom_of_russia_legion_speak/
Post by: King Zultan on June 07, 2023, 12:43:19 am
Guess it's time to start preparing for Chernobyl 2: Electric Boogaloo.
Post by: jipehog on June 07, 2023, 02:58:56 am
EDIT:
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says
Post by: Strongpoint on June 07, 2023, 03:07:28 am
It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 07, 2023, 03:14:58 am
Post by: brewer bob on June 07, 2023, 03:45:09 am
It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
Yeah, people seem to fail to grasp what kind of devastating impact that has. All the wildlife, forests, water getting polluted (e.g., from whatever toxins might be stored on the way), damage to infrastructure, potential nuclear catastrophe, etc., etc. Can't do as much damage with a WMD.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 07, 2023, 04:22:48 am
Post by: Quarque on June 07, 2023, 04:52:51 am
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.Also annoying that western media attach any value to the disgusting Russian lie that Ukraine did it. I saw an interviewer on Deutsche Welle ask a Ukranian official to respond to this obvious lie. Absolute cringe. Why is such a ridiculous claim even worth reporting?
Yes, in theory we can't proof that the Russians did it. Who knows, in theory it might have been aliens. Jeez.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 07, 2023, 04:56:35 am
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.Also annoying that western media attach any value to the disgusting Russian lie that Ukraine did it. I saw an interviewer on Deutsche Welle ask a Ukranian official to respond to this obvious lie. Absolute cringe. Why is such a ridiculous claim even worth reporting?
Yes, in theory we can't proof that the Russians did it. Who knows, in theory it might have been aliens. Jeez.
But they must be neutral! All positions should be represented! It is proper journalism!
Post by: hector13 on June 07, 2023, 05:19:52 am
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.Also annoying that western media attach any value to the disgusting Russian lie that Ukraine did it. I saw an interviewer on Deutsche Welle ask a Ukranian official to respond to this obvious lie. Absolute cringe. Why is such a ridiculous claim even worth reporting?
Yes, in theory we can't proof that the Russians did it. Who knows, in theory it might have been aliens. Jeez.
It sells papers/views/clicks. Some people don’t care how they make money.
Post by: Jerick on June 07, 2023, 07:04:10 am
Post by: jipehog on June 07, 2023, 07:25:05 am
Or just don't care.It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
Yeah, people seem to fail to grasp what kind of devastating impact that has.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 07, 2023, 08:46:23 am
It also reeks of desperation.I was thinking this. Long term this fucks Russian prospects. Suggests they are panicking.
EDIT:
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says
Post by: Strongpoint on June 07, 2023, 09:15:39 am
It also reeks of desperation.I was thinking this. Long term this fucks Russian prospects. Suggests they are panicking.
EDIT:
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-offensive-going-better-than-expected-u-s-says
And how exactly it hurts Russia?
Post by: MorleyDev on June 07, 2023, 10:53:19 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 07, 2023, 10:58:46 am
Post by: EuchreJack on June 07, 2023, 12:01:54 pm
Looking through the Western media and English-speaking segments of Twitter and Facebook, I am so appalled.In the US, we're a little busy obsessing over the Orange Smoke Clouds of Doom. Our media isn't even really covering the Fires in Canada the size of New Jersey that are generating the smoke.
It is treated like some minor thing, like a manmade seasonal flood, a minor episode in a war, not a huge war crime and an act of ecocide of immense scale. A tactical nuke in a random place would do far less damage.
Expect us to care in two weeks when we've got less of our own ecological disasters to report (I hope).
Post by: Strongpoint on June 07, 2023, 01:53:37 pm
They've made the land they hope to take less valuable for them if they do take it, but Russia has demonstrated a willingness to be "king of the ashes" before.
Russia already understood that it won't control this area. At best, it will be an area of constant warfare and that brings no profit.
There is nothing but a huge win for Russia here, they caused colossal economic damage to their enemy. 10-20% of Ukrainian agriculture won't function for many years. Using Dnipro for transporting grain to Black Sea ports will also be problematic
Post by: Starver on June 07, 2023, 04:31:13 pm
...then onto Prince Hal's court case against the press.
So I think we're still interested/concerned.
The BBC's language has indeed 'equally' reported the Russian counter-narritive, but pretty much always with the caveat of "as usual..." and "without providing any evidence". And tends to explain if what Kiev says can or cannot be confirmed, as well, to be fair, but there's rarely the same scope for complaint.
We have had the Russian Ambassador/others talk to us through our news channels, in interviews, but almost always they just come off looking like a try-hard under the thumb of their leadership, attempting to show how much they're following the Party line demanded from back home. Yet ending up just being unconvincingly combative in responding to pretty standard laser-guided fact-based questioning.
...aaaaand, Russia's back in the news at 20 minutes in (cyberhacks of business details of companies that seem all to start with the first two letters of the alphabet - including the BBC).
Post by: brewer bob on June 07, 2023, 04:33:50 pm
10-20% of Ukrainian agriculture won't function for many years.
And this will have global implications.
Post by: jipehog on June 07, 2023, 05:57:26 pm
Interestingly, there was just a report of ammonia pipeline being hit, which is used in agriculture as fertilizer..10-20% of Ukrainian agriculture won't function for many years.
And this will have global implications.
Post by: jipehog on June 08, 2023, 03:41:38 am
Some personal news - My brother's self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika was damaged beyond repair by a Russian suicide drone yesterday. Luckily the crew wasn't anywhere near.I'm glad to hear your brother is ok, did he get a new flower?
Post by: Strongpoint on June 08, 2023, 07:38:18 am
Some personal news - My brother's self-propelled howitzer Gvozdika was damaged beyond repair by a Russian suicide drone yesterday. Luckily the crew wasn't anywhere near.I'm glad to hear your brother is ok, did he get a new flower?
For now, their battery will have a more relaxed schedule with more crews rotating through the remaining guns.
Post by: scriver on June 08, 2023, 10:20:45 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 08, 2023, 11:08:54 am
Apart from that, judging by his professional neck fur hold, he is either a vet, an animal shelter volunteer, or someone who grew up with cats.
https://img.volkskrant.nl/e4b059f0b48c2424e96d73cda188d0ba6e5e9d20/damdoorbraak-oekraine-is-ecocide-lekkende-olie-rottende-bomen-verdronken-dieren.webp
Sending the guy some crossed fingers that he will live through the war.
Post by: jipehog on June 08, 2023, 10:51:14 pm
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/az2Z89Z_460svav1.mp4
Post by: King Zultan on June 09, 2023, 01:58:18 am
Post by: Starver on June 09, 2023, 05:18:00 am
So far, it has reached its peak, from what I've seen, so the floodwaters probably won't rise more (perhaps a bit more at the outlet into the sea, due to natural lag), but the tap being turned on like it has is going to be a constant pressure on architecture and natural landscape currently inundated with more than a few centimetres of flowing water (water is dense, and has momentum - and more water constraining it from flowing sideways - so stationary things like buildings and trees are going to be under pressure by any flow striving to go through where they happen to be) going to be under strains they were never built/grown to handle... Plus be now sodden.
If the current "constant rapids" going through the gap starts to significantly shift even more of the dam structure (and/or move and set off any as yet unexploded mines previously laid around it, creating other opportunistic points for water to swirl in depressions and start to gouge more of the structure away) then the tap gets turned on progressively more than even now, which might mean different things to those below (where the inundated river is now a wide flood-plain lake, it'll take a lot to raise the level by even a little/creep a little way more up onto the current dry highground; any geographic pinches will suffer more, though, as the additional accumulation of flow finds its options more limited and it bunches up again). If it gets gradually scoured to the very dam-edges (one imagines the construction wasn't made into valley sides significantly weaker than the man-made structure, but it has been known!) it'll likely get no worse downstream, time-delayed by distance, than with that peak outflow, but it'll be bad enough.
And then the wait (in normal times, though most people will still have... well... war-problems to deal with) as the upper lake empties sigbificantly and the flow becomes much closer to 'normal' river at spate (but some draining away of the inundation will start, as it hits a dynamic equilibreum with the current conditions).
In peacetime, it'd be nigh on impossible to repair the dam any time soon. Helidropped mega-sandbags can work on smaller structural defects (e.g. this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulley_Reservoir#June_2007_cracks_in_the_dam) and this (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toddbrook_Reservoir#2019_incident) near manor incidents), to stabilise matters, but the raw logistics in the case of this breach are way beyond that. Perhaps deliberately grounding/scuttling barges across the gap might be tried, but too many variables (too wide a gap for a single vessel, the water dynamics might mean extra scouring round the edges/underneath any vessel, risk of impacting the dam wall and dislodging more of its weakened structure, risk of the vessel(s) just twisting through the gap and becoming an additional downstream hazard ...at least until it hits something else fairly solid), and I have no idea what the depth is (originally or, more importantly, now) immediately upstream of the breach. And... you know... with the very opposite of cooperation being possible, I don't even imagine there'll be many expert assessments made (overflying camera-drones are being shot at, obviously!).
Really, the sum total of the damage is massive but will have to be totted up much later. That's just the 'conventional' flooding issue, minus issues of loss of water to ZNP/Crimea and whatever regional agriculture was still occuring beyond the actual face-off zone. It probably distupts plans for both sides' militaries (for both attack and defence contingencies), either locally or forcing extra attention elsewhere because it 'simplifies' the issues in the affected areas by sheer exclusion, and even if the breach was a deliberate military act (the most charitable interpretation I've seen is that mere 'bridge denial' demolition went seriously wrong, or mines that had been laid on the bankings shifted and went off in waterlogged ground to trigger yet more damage), I doubt the plan was for things to turn out like this. Dam breaches are a blunt instrument, not exactly a Nazgul-foiling masterstroke of planning.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 09, 2023, 06:10:11 am
Show how much damage was caused by the dam blowing up?
Where do I start
1) Hundreds dead (Russia never cared to start evacuation on the left bank, also they constantly shell evacuation on the right bank)
2) Tens of thousands lost their homes
3) Many, many billions worth of direct economic damage
4) Countless animals dying in the flood
5) Significant long-term pollution of the delta of Dnipro and the Black Sea
6) ~2M people will have reduced access to drinking water
7) Various industries including a NPP will also lose access to water
8) No serious navigation on Dnipro any time soon (it is absent now because of the war but it won't come back... our poor roads...)
8) 10-30% (estimates wary) of the Ukrainian agricultural sector is lost for many years until the dam is repaired and the lake is refilled or some alternative means of irrigation will be developed
9) Complete destruction of the lake ecosystem that took decades to establish
And so on.
Post by: jipehog on June 09, 2023, 11:07:33 pm
For example: even if we assume failure, it need not be an either or scenario. With offensive action ramping up we it was clear that Ukranian counteroffensive is coming, many floated the possibility that Ukraine would launch an amphibious assault there on that day, June 6 the anniversary of D-Day. It is possible that Russian forces have mined the dam in case of such eventuality, and upon hearing the explosion sound from the dam assumed its an attack panicked and press the button causing its destruction. And this is the most mild scenario I can think off.
Looks like the USA far right are ridding on this, with tucker carlson launching his shitshow on this topic, with his usual BS (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QsNNCjeeizY)
-----
Speaking of the fog of war, while many on the Ukrainian side choose to stay silent on the Counteroffensive (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8utR7QOL_To) like last time Russia wages informational campaign try to asserts that Ukrainian counter offensive already failed, which ended with humiliating defeats for Russia. For people who waged an offensive for month and suffering over 100K casualties in just Bakhmut they are really brazen about their claims.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 12, 2023, 11:57:11 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 12, 2023, 08:24:29 pm
In the water, explosions are seen and heard from mines colliding with objects, and they can be expected to even wash up at beaches of the Black Sea.
People are warned to not clean up any flooding debris, and to also be really careful at the Black Sea beaches when cleaning up flood debris. Even though those beaches are used to sea mines washing ashore by now, landmines are much less obvious than sea mines.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 13, 2023, 01:14:27 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 13, 2023, 02:06:56 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 13, 2023, 02:33:47 am
Post by: jipehog on June 13, 2023, 02:51:56 am
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive is slowly crawling forward. So far, there have been no major breakthroughs only a methodical relentless push against enemy fortified positions.In this case slow and steady wins the war. Some nice gains in Donetsk region, although reportedly Russia blew two more small dams so it might get slowed down (I suspect not, as Ukraine is moving on the high ground)
Post by: scriver on June 13, 2023, 02:57:40 am
I find It hilarious that vatnik became an international meme. I was there, in the early 2010s, when the original Sponge Bob inspired meme was born.
What was the meme?
Post by: King Zultan on June 13, 2023, 03:06:24 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 13, 2023, 03:36:11 am
Guess I'm also behind the times as I don't know what a vatnik is.Slang term for a Putin supporter/"z-ombie". The meme originated from a character someone created who was a personified jacket (ватник) who spouted pro-Russian propaganda. iirc
Post by: Great Order on June 13, 2023, 06:51:59 am
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian offensive is slowly crawling forward. So far, there have been no major breakthroughs only a methodical relentless push against enemy fortified positions.Feels a bit disappointing, but I think that's just in the face of last year's counteroffensive where the Russian frontline completely collapsed.
Post by: jipehog on June 13, 2023, 07:31:07 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 13, 2023, 08:05:08 am
I see this as an initial stage, probing for weaknesses to pour reserves in for a decisive strike.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 13, 2023, 09:52:56 am
For that matter, the lighting offensive last year started exactly the same way. Ukraine ground away at two fronts, until one front suddenly collapsed.
Post by: Starver on June 13, 2023, 02:44:38 pm
[...] they reportedly [...] lost a major general.
♪♪He was the very model of a Russian Major-Guneral,
All destined to get plaudits, with some medals, then a funeral.
Obeyed the King In Kremlin, and he fought the fights Ukrainian
From Mariupol to Bakhmutka, with drones that were Iranian.
Was very well acquainted, too, with matters of the Wagner lot,
He understood their prison-troopers both were simple and inclined to rot.
About the front-line stalemate, he was woeful with the lack of news...
...but still he spun the facts around the needs of Moscow's vatnik views!♪♪
(I'll stop there..! )
Post by: MorleyDev on June 13, 2023, 04:46:29 pm
Googled it, found this twitter post: https://twitter.com/AndrejNkv/status/1507365192405073920
I am the very model of a Russian Major General
My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable
My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal
Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal
I used to have a tank brigade but now I have lost several
My fresh assaults are faltering with battleplans extemporal
I can't recover vehicles but farmers in a tractor can
It's all becoming rather reminiscent of Afghanistan
My ordnance is the best but only half my missiles make it there
I would have thought by now that we would be controllers of the air
But at the rate the snipers work my time here is ephemeral
I am the very model of a Russian Major General
EDIT: And another version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyd1Zw8M69M&ab_channel=PatrickFitzgerald
I am the very model of a modern Russian General
I've spent the funds intended for my troops on things quite farcical
Like yachts and properties with fancy features architectural
It's just what is expected when your life is Oligarchical
My soldiers end up walking when the tanks they drive run out of fuel
They're running out of rations so they're getting by on eating gruel
It's getting hard for them to hide from everyone Ukrainian
So they have started digging holes and going subterranean
I am the very model of a Russian Major General
My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable
My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal
Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal
If they find out where I reside they will commence with shootin’ me
So I must find a place to hide that neither they nor Putin see
I think that I could check if Mar-a-Lago has a vacancy
But that won’t work, ‘cause Donald Trump is Russia’s biggest devotee
The final step that I must take to guarantee I persevere:
I’ve just arranged to launch myself into the upper stratosphere
I think that I have finally found the thing that overrode my fear
Is keeping very far away from President Volodymyr
Post by: King Zultan on June 14, 2023, 03:00:39 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 14, 2023, 05:41:36 am
Ramzam Kadyrov writes on his Telegram channel that 'he is unable to contact his dear brother Delimchanov'.
Funnily enough, he asks the Ukrainian intelligence services to provide him with details and location of the attack.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 14, 2023, 05:53:49 am
Adam Delimchanov, right hand of Chechen leader Ramzam Kadyrov has been wounded or killed by a missile strike. Ukrainian forces stumbled upon his convoy and opened fire on it.L rip bozo
Ramzam Kadyrov writes on his Telegram channel that 'he is unable to contact his dear brother Delimchanov'.
Funnily enough, he asks the Ukrainian intelligence services to provide him with details and location of the attack.
Post by: King Zultan on June 15, 2023, 02:03:53 am
Post by: Eric Blank on June 15, 2023, 07:23:43 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 16, 2023, 10:59:56 am
Meanwhile: War and SPIEF: Russia's Flagship Economic Forum Flatlines (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/15/war-and-spief-russias-flagship-economic-forum-flatlines-a81508)
* Apparently presentation of the new Russian LADA (https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/aXn2GRv_460svav1.mp4) at the forum
* Can't find a link but they also unveiled Russian AI Chatbot based on deceased far-right party leader.
Post by: jipehog on June 17, 2023, 11:53:44 am
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/16/world/europe/ukraine-kakhovka-dam-collapse.html
Post by: KittyTac on June 18, 2023, 08:56:57 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 18, 2023, 09:39:10 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 18, 2023, 09:57:20 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2023, 10:25:14 am
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
A strange take. I can't find anything more bland than Soviet culture and art except what Russia produced between 1991 and now which is a mix of the worst elements of Soviet times and bad copies of Western stuff.
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 18, 2023, 10:56:29 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2023, 11:44:28 am
You won't find any noticeable traces of Soviet culture in modern Poland or Vietnam or post-colonial Africa or Cuba. Why? Because it was bland and empty.
Post by: KittyTac on June 18, 2023, 12:12:16 pm
Current Russian mass culture is bad but some independent stuff is good. Soviet era was imo the golden age. The comedy movies are hilarious.
But nowadays as part of my cultural self-obliteration I am mostly consuming Western media anyways.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 18, 2023, 01:21:43 pm
You won't find any noticeable traces of Soviet culture in modern PolandThe Palace of Culture and Science says hello.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 18, 2023, 01:30:04 pm
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.I sometimes have the same feelings about being a Republican in America, when I see Trumpers in action. There are plenty of decent moderate Republicans, they just don't get a lot of air time.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 18, 2023, 01:46:35 pm
Goddamnit, I'mma gonna go and listen to some sovietwave now.
Post by: Great Order on June 18, 2023, 03:04:12 pm
A few good books have come from Russia/Russians.Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
A strange take. I can't find anything more bland than Soviet culture and art except what Russia produced between 1991 and now which is a mix of the worst elements of Soviet times and bad copies of Western stuff.
Ferex, the Metro series. Although IIRC the guy's living in Israel now and faces imprisonment back home for being anti-war.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 18, 2023, 08:02:01 pm
Note that USSR, a huge empire, a superpower with numerous allies and puppets, was unable to contribute to the world's mass culture in a meaningful way. Well, nothing is not exactly correct, there are minor things like Tetris (but is it a Soviet thing or a brilliant idea of one guy?) but there is nothing of the scale of, let's say, Japanese Anime.
You won't find any noticeable traces of Soviet culture in modern Poland or Vietnam or post-colonial Africa or Cuba. Why? Because it was bland and empty.
There's plenty of influential works from places that used to be Soviet Socialist Republics or were puppeted satellites of the USSR. Ukraine, Poland, Czechia and others have all had some pretty big impacts. The biggest problem with Soviet culture spread wasn't fundamental problems with said culture (though their aggressive state censorship likely didn't help), but the fact that they were locked in an ideological struggle with the most dominant cultural powerhouse the world had ever seen. Soviet stuff wasn't exactly suppressed, but there very much was a longstanding "they're the enemy, I'm not going to spread their crap" attitude among the people (generally private companies) who decided what was and wasn't going to get imported into Western nations) that wasn't present for other cultural producers. Japanese and European cultural output could fairly readily coexist with American because they weren't The Enemy.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2023, 11:54:11 pm
Of course, there is a huge (IMO negative) influence on all countries that were in the USSR. But outside of it, even in the Warsaw pact, the impact is minimal. Sure, it is not zero, some architecture there, some homage there, some nostalgia-inspired art here, some internet meme there, but nothing remotely close to what you would expect from a huge country with a huge web of puppets and allies if its pop culture would be halfway decent.
Post by: KittyTac on June 19, 2023, 01:47:23 am
What I really hate is that in the West some 19th-century novels like War And Peace are appreciated. They're all irredeemable shit, narratively. If I could burn them all I would.
Post by: King Zultan on June 19, 2023, 02:19:30 am
some architecture there,Does Soviet architecture even count though, I mean most examples of it I've seen are just big concrete blocks with some windows in them.
Post by: scriver on June 19, 2023, 02:28:50 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 19, 2023, 02:33:59 am
Well that's certainly been influential abroad thoughThere are even some commieblocks in Africa, lol. Many falling apart and without water, but otherwise they look just like the ones here in Siberia.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 19, 2023, 02:41:57 am
some architecture there,Does Soviet architecture even count though, I mean most examples of it I've seen are just big concrete blocks with some windows in them.
There are notable things, like the aforementioned Palace of Culture and Science in Warsaw. But yeah, most of the Soviet architecture is ugly concrete boxes. By its very nature architecture is there to stay for some time but I would say that it had an impact if new generations would base their architecture on that one, it isn't happening.
Quote
What I really hate is that in the West some 19th-century novels like War And Peace are appreciated.Are they? Sure, there are some intellectuals and pseudo-intellectuals that praise that monument of boredom but I don't think it has any notable place in the Western popular culture. There are no major movies based on it or anything of that kind. Tolstoy is no Dumas and Dostoevsky is no Hugo
Post by: Starver on June 19, 2023, 05:07:35 am
There are no major movies based on it or anything of that kind. Tolstoy is no Dumas and Dostoevsky is no HugoOk, so it's not Hollywood, but in major mini-series form (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p039wcdk).... Possibly even Cultural Appropriation, for those that truly find the original
(Perhaps geofenced from playing even the clips, but should show how 'big' budget drama has been done. Parallel form to the likes of the His Dark Materials adaptation, for example.)
I have to say that I know W&P as more a general designation of a "very long book" (the other day my own writing on a matter was described as such... can you imagine that?!?) and I'm not actually as familiar with it so much myself, and probably did not watch the above for the same reason I did not watch various (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b018wmhr) English (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b007z7jx) classics (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00t3hy7) from the same stable. And I never had a hankering to see Les Mis (theatre/film), though I have heard a (non-musical) lengthy radio adaptation so I think I have a handle on the plot.
Yes, it's probably a "pseud's thing", but then I'd claim to have devoured all of the LOTR books (or, indeed, the Mission: Earth dekalogy (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission_Earth_(novel_series)), which I thought were a good read, given certain unorthodox parameters, but I'm fairly certain I'm not influenced by the author's 'culture'[1]).
I mean, one stumbling block is the lack of translator-microbes. Anything non-English is closed off to me until someone with sufficient cross-lingo ability is either bank-rolled to try to create a translation version or else does one off their own back from personal dedication whilst personal wealth supporte them/scraping an existence via a 'second' job. Or at least create something from which a potentially mood-unfaithful adaptation can be hung from once the hard work is done.
Would I know that much about Le Tour du Monde en Quatre-Vingts Jours or Vingt Mille Lieues Sous Les Mers without the 'classic' English version? (Helped too by Hollywood features being made, sure, but Le Rayon Vert escaped that fate, to my knowledge, and yet...)
When young I probably knew more people who were excited by Soviet-era 'cultural' things (perhaps not entirely stuck to Russia itself, but clearly by implication) than things of Imperial Russia era, but that was probably a knock-on from their lands of origin wishing more to promote New Wave SF/frankly disturbing children's animations from "beyond the Iron Curtain" countries more than even the thoughtfully critical kind of pre-Soviet aristos-and-serfs tale. Probably more likely to depict the travailles of a tractor than the ponderings of a princeling. (Well, mostly (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singing_Ringing_Tree), but that was the GDR anyway... But it also inspired an 'adaptation' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singing_Ringing_Tree#The_Fast_Show_parody)!)
Probably the social impact of true Russian soviet-era culture never reached that far beyond the borders, for many different reasons[2], and I couldn't tell you what a person of my age would have appreciated in Moscow (probably seeing less of the Moscow State Circus/Ballet than I could, given their seemingly perpetual international touring schedule..!). Or perhaps it was all too much Vovochka humour, 'of an era' stuff that doesn't mature with age/dates badly (c.f. "On The Buses"/"Love Thy Neighbour", here in Britain) and so is easily forgotten as 'a thing'.
I'm sure there's lost gems, and right now we're probably all for non-Soviet or despite-Soviet culture as much as anything, but only the first is now open-domain 'classic' material and it's not really the time for those who know to uncover something like Smert' Postoronnego ("Death and the Penguin", which was an interesting Kiev-based story that was radio-dramatised in the early days of the current conflict, almost certainly driven by our national sympathies) only from deeper in historic/current Russia. It sounds like the Kafkaesque mentality was not limited to the area/era around the original eponymous stuff from around Prague, and I'm sure someone in Vladivostok had as much to say on the matter across much of the Soviet era, whether or not their ideas ever previously saw the light of day (or, possibly, themselves also. Ever again.)
[1] Indeed, I also think that the (separate) Battlefield Earth book was ill-adapted into film by the actual faithful promoters of the "Elron" legacy... Perhaps I just have a differently refined appreciation of "trash sci-fi", though.
[2] That which lacked the push had no corresponding pull? That which might have been happily pulled was never pushed?
Post by: Mech#4 on June 19, 2023, 05:47:53 am
some architecture there,Does Soviet architecture even count though, I mean most examples of it I've seen are just big concrete blocks with some windows in them.
The style is a recognised class and called "Brutalist Architecture" and there are examples of it in many countries around the world like in the U.S. and England not just in the former Soviet Bloc
Wikipedia: Brutalist Architecture (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brutalist_architecture)
Post by: EuchreJack on June 19, 2023, 09:18:40 am
Post by: jipehog on June 20, 2023, 02:54:33 am
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.You are not Russophobic
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on June 20, 2023, 03:30:33 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 20, 2023, 10:43:39 am
joking aside, I do not agree with such sentiments, the idea of destroying books and think that older works should be judged in accordance with their cultural context.It's not even about the content. Honestly I never even read War And Peace lol, I chopped it in half with an axe because it's a symbol of a culture I despise.
Destroying a book just because you don't like it is stupid.It's because I don't like what it stands for: our "high culture". I don't even care what's in the book itself.
Post by: Starver on June 20, 2023, 03:42:42 pm
If you really can't stand a set of books, just don't read tyem. Or perhaps put them on a special bookshelf, under a special filing system (https://xkcd.com/2791)...
[1] Well, isn't that a loaded term? To some, that'd be Harry Potter (which to me is a sufficiently entertaining read that somehow found a zeitgeist), to others it'd be <insert some opposingly creed>'s Holy Book (to me, they're all meh), to yet others it'd be something like deSade (to which I've never had the pleasure; or the pain!). I'm not even sure I have an example that I could fit here.
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 20, 2023, 04:12:50 pm
Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
I wouldn't demand from anyone to hate Pushkin or Dostoevsky for the war. Just being associated with the idea of Russia is not a conduit for guilt, especially if it's something one cannot choose. Existing in a context doesn't mean something is part and parcel of everything in the context. Each place and time on Earth cannot be consistently made into its own uniform gestalt. And I try to take an approach that errs on the side of compassion.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 20, 2023, 05:33:11 pm
I know a 62-year-old person who has zero, I mean zero Ukrainians among recent ancestors, who never spoke Ukrainian went for total self-derusification, doesn't address Russian without using slurs, learned to speak very decent Ukrainian and refuses to use Russian, had time to volunteer to the front, get wounded (lost something like half of his liver and one kidney) and come back home and broke all contacts with all relatives on the other side of the border. Oh, and if you'll call him a Russian you will be punched in the face. I guarantee you that.
I wouldn't wish anyone to get into a situation where you have to deny your nationality like that. When you actually lose connection with your nation to the point when you don't want to have anything in common with those people. But at least I know that the idea of one can't change the nationality (ethnicity) they were born with is total bullshit.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 20, 2023, 07:01:54 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 20, 2023, 09:11:51 pm
The sum is a paltry 6.2 billion dollars, but will likely be useful.
Seriously, this is basically the Pentagon claiming they found the value of an aircraft carrier under the couch cushions.
Post by: Eric Blank on June 20, 2023, 09:15:18 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 21, 2023, 12:56:47 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 21, 2023, 01:18:24 am
I see the probability of a 100-400km radius irradiated zone in the center of Ukraine as something around 90% and it will be way worse than Chernobyl. I simply see no reason why Russians wouldn't do that. It benefits them and they have no moral limitations whatsoever. I already recommended everyone I know who lives anywhere close to that area to evacuate. Sadly most are answering something along the lines "you are spreading panic."
Honestly, I boult be less worried if ISIS had control over a NPP, they have some moral limitations and the world would be doing something.
Post by: King Zultan on June 21, 2023, 03:15:52 am
Honestly I never even read War And Peace lol, I chopped it in half with an axe because it's a symbol of a culture I despise.How can you despise it if you've never read it?
Then if you hate it so much why not ditch it somewhere like a bus station or something?Destroying a book just because you don't like it is stupid.It's because I don't like what it stands for: our "high culture". I don't even care what's in the book itself.
Post by: KittyTac on June 21, 2023, 06:18:26 am
I can't think of any book (even Mein Campf, Mao's LRB, any version of the Anarchist's Cookbook or the most objectional[1] directory of perversions) that I would so prejudicially deface. If I burn a book, it'll only be because I need fuel. Banishment to some secure backroom of a library, maybe, but you can't actually counter that which has (effectively or actually) undergone total extestential failure. Books are paragraphs, paragraphs are words, words are letters and (give or take the precise alphabet/glyphs, lexicon, grammar and themes in use) all of these are pretty much the same morally neutral building blocks as any other example. The problem is what one does with them, not the things themselves.Nah if I could outright destroy all copies of classic Russian literature, physical or digital, I would. I'd also destroy Mein Kampf, Turner Diaries, Victoria... and so on. Pretty long list. I stopped caring about information preservation long ago. Destroying them isn't even about what is inside, it's about sending a message: I hate this and I want it reduced to smoldering ashes.
If you really can't stand a set of books, just don't read tyem. Or perhaps put them on a special bookshelf, under a special filing system (https://xkcd.com/2791)...
[1] Well, isn't that a loaded term? To some, that'd be Harry Potter (which to me is a sufficiently entertaining read that somehow found a zeitgeist), to others it'd be <insert some opposingly creed>'s Holy Book (to me, they're all meh), to yet others it'd be something like deSade (to which I've never had the pleasure; or the pain!). I'm not even sure I have an example that I could fit here.
Oh I know, that's why I don't hate all of Russian culture. The classics are just hate-provoking for me.Over the course of the war I have started becoming ashamed of even being Russian, culturally. I hate my country's culture, I mean most Soviet and some modern stuff is okay but I fucking despise just about anything from before 1914. I hate Pushkin, Tolstoy, Dostoevsky's books for example. Even destroyed the few I still had.
I wouldn't demand from anyone to hate Pushkin or Dostoevsky for the war. Just being associated with the idea of Russia is not a conduit for guilt, especially if it's something one cannot choose. Existing in a context doesn't mean something is part and parcel of everything in the context. Each place and time on Earth cannot be consistently made into its own uniform gestalt. And I try to take an approach that errs on the side of compassion.
I am witnessing a lot of people with similar attitudes to KittyTac's. Remember, Ukraine had (had, no has) 17% who self-identified as Russians.I'm not as radical as that guy but yeah. Once I move and get a different citizenship, I'm burning my Russian passport with a blowtorch so I can't easily go back even if I wanted to in the future.
I know a 62-year-old person who has zero, I mean zero Ukrainians among recent ancestors, who never spoke Ukrainian went for total self-derusification, doesn't address Russian without using slurs, learned to speak very decent Ukrainian and refuses to use Russian, had time to volunteer to the front, get wounded (lost something like half of his liver and one kidney) and come back home and broke all contacts with all relatives on the other side of the border. Oh, and if you'll call him a Russian you will be punched in the face. I guarantee you that.
I wouldn't wish anyone to get into a situation where you have to deny your nationality like that. When you actually lose connection with your nation to the point when you don't want to have anything in common with those people. But at least I know that the idea of one can't change the nationality (ethnicity) they were born with is total bullshit.
Because I have a vendetta against the "revered classics". And if I just gave it away then the book would still be readable and I don't want that. I want to vandalize.Honestly I never even read War And Peace lol, I chopped it in half with an axe because it's a symbol of a culture I despise.How can you despise it if you've never read it?Then if you hate it so much why not ditch it somewhere like a bus station or something?Destroying a book just because you don't like it is stupid.It's because I don't like what it stands for: our "high culture". I don't even care what's in the book itself.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 21, 2023, 06:36:14 am
No surprise that they're overvaluing everything, as usual. Question is whose pockets was that money going to disappear into. At least it'll be spent on defending someone's freedom now.
It wasn't being grafted. The issue is that this war is the first time in decades (I can't find a time it was used since the Yom Kippur War in '73) that the drawdown regulations have been used, so most of the people who actually knew how it worked have long since retired. Because Congress keeps iron track of every single penny spent by the Pentagon to make it damn near impossible for any money to disappear into anybody's pocket, the rules for how this sort of thing has to be tracked are incredibly byzantine, and the Pentagon had been calculating it wrong.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 21, 2023, 07:59:16 am
No one spoke of hatred of the Russians. the feeling experienced by all the Chechens, from the youngest to the oldest, was stronger than hate. It was not hatred, for they did not regard those Russian dogs as human beings, but it was such repulsion, disgust, and perplexity at the senseless cruelty of these creatures, that the desire to exterminate them — like the desire to exterminate rats, poisonous spiders, or wolves — was as natural an instinct as that of self-preservation.”
― Leo Tolstoy, Hadji Murat
Not that I think that Russian classical literature is a major part of modern stagnant Russian culture.
Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.
Post by: Great Order on June 21, 2023, 08:11:12 am
I can't think of any book (even Mein Campf, Mao's LRB, any version of the Anarchist's Cookbook or the most objectional[1] directory of perversions) that I would so prejudicially deface. If I burn a book, it'll only be because I need fuel. Banishment to some secure backroom of a library, maybe, but you can't actually counter that which has (effectively or actually) undergone total extestential failure. Books are paragraphs, paragraphs are words, words are letters and (give or take the precise alphabet/glyphs, lexicon, grammar and themes in use) all of these are pretty much the same morally neutral building blocks as any other example. The problem is what one does with them, not the things themselves.Honestly (to go off-topic) I can't understand the sort of... sacredness? of books nowadays.
If you really can't stand a set of books, just don't read tyem. Or perhaps put them on a special bookshelf, under a special filing system (https://xkcd.com/2791)...
[1] Well, isn't that a loaded term? To some, that'd be Harry Potter (which to me is a sufficiently entertaining read that somehow found a zeitgeist), to others it'd be <insert some opposingly creed>'s Holy Book (to me, they're all meh), to yet others it'd be something like deSade (to which I've never had the pleasure; or the pain!). I'm not even sure I have an example that I could fit here.
Could understand waaaaaaaaaaay back when, when each book had to be transcribed rather than printed and thus you might actually have the only copy, but we mass produce books to such a stupid extent nowadays that when I was working in a charity shop we had a shed full of books for recycling that just got dumped in there willy-nilly because nobody'd buy them. They're a dime a dozen and so long as society doesn't collapse it'll stay that way.
Post by: KittyTac on June 21, 2023, 09:58:49 am
Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 21, 2023, 10:05:10 am
Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 21, 2023, 10:06:09 am
No surprise that they're overvaluing everything, as usual. Question is whose pockets was that money going to disappear into. At least it'll be spent on defending someone's freedom now.With the new focus on liability for Burn Pits, you might be onto something.
Post by: KittyTac on June 21, 2023, 10:10:41 am
Yeah it doesn't seem likely, I was responding to Strongpoint.Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 21, 2023, 12:46:23 pm
Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Well, would many say in 1985 that USSR will soon collapse into a number of countries with capitalist oligarchy rising to power almost immediately and left ideology disappearing with remaining "left" parties being other a parody or extremely marginal?
And communism was a way more robust ideology than that kitchen sink Russia currently has.
It is Russians we are talking about. Very malleable substance. If their propaganda machine will start saying that every Russian should try homosexual sex, a lot of them will.
Of course, we need some kind of liberals somehow coming to power in Russia, getting control over the propaganda machine. This is a hard part. But if they'll do - It will be a very swift process.
Post by: Starver on June 21, 2023, 01:02:05 pm
Honestly (to go off-topic) I can't understand the sort of... sacredness? of books nowadays.If anything, that's just another reason. I mean I'm not particularly desirous of "destroying fundamental data", as well, but destroying a copy is a gesture that I don't think I'd make either. Rare copies of old books (or anything not originally rare but actively endangered by such a practice) are indeed a loss to be avoided, but I don't treat that as my moral/practical limit on the issue.
Could understand waaaaaaaaaaay back when, when each book had to be transcribed rather than printed and thus you might actually have the only copy, but we mass produce books to such a stupid extent nowadays that when I was working in a charity shop we had a shed full of books for recycling that just got dumped in there willy-nilly because nobody'd buy them. They're a dime a dozen and so long as society doesn't collapse it'll stay that way.
Apparently there's been a good market in Iran for the Stars And Stripes flag (extra flammable!), at times. While there are some who would definitely treat that as a mortal insult (and others, similarly patriotic to the US but more philosophical, might even personally treat it more as a sign of positive affirmation of their homeland's status w.r.t. that of Iran), again I'm just bemused by the practice.
And, short of a suitably-scoped Infinity Glove finger-snap, these things are pretty much reduced to a gesture. One that doesn't achieve the stated aim in any realistic manner, so any truly considered motivation for the act can only really be justified as the means to a different ends, an intent that I just cannot relate to right now.
(But fill 'yer boots, those who do.)
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 21, 2023, 09:05:22 pm
Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
They're not "imitating" Anti-Woke sentiments. A fuckton of that came from them in the first place, because they have an almost open policy of fomenting cultural fault lines in rival nations as a destabilization tactic. They're also proven to be behind a lot of the anti-vax shit that's been going around. Problem for Russia is that most of that leaked back into Russia and is now working against them.
Post by: KittyTac on June 22, 2023, 01:25:28 am
This would be based and make me not move. Lol. As long as our current mindset and old culture is smashed mercilessly.Russia has already imitated Anti-Woke sentiments, even identifying themselves as such. They picked the opposing side to Woke, don't see them going the other way.Also, knowing how Russia loves to copy stuff from the West and make a horrible, twisted version of it "Christianity, Marx's theories, capitalism, etc." I expect that, if Russia will not collapse, the next stage will be the "woke" one. Take the worst, most exaggerated and caricature version of "woke" and make it more extreme. This will be Russian ideology at some point.I'll take that, honestly. As long as it exterminates the current mindset of our country and makes it geopolitically irrelevant. As a bi neurodivergent man I wouldn't mind an arch-progressive ideology taking over Russia, if that's what you mean. "We will lose our culture, our traditions!" That's fucking great, I want that. When Putin talks about LGBT people wanting to undermine Russia from the inside and burn what makes us Russian to the ground, I say yes. Yes I do. I am merely doing what you say Mr Huilo.
Well, would many say in 1985 that USSR will soon collapse into a number of countries with capitalist oligarchy rising to power almost immediately and left ideology disappearing with remaining "left" parties being other a parody or extremely marginal?
And communism was a way more robust ideology than that kitchen sink Russia currently has.
It is Russians we are talking about. Very malleable substance. If their propaganda machine will start saying that every Russian should try homosexual sex, a lot of them will.
Of course, we need some kind of liberals somehow coming to power in Russia, getting control over the propaganda machine. This is a hard part. But if they'll do - It will be a very swift process.
I did it because vandalizing Russian classic literature is funny. I am a defiler and proud. I did things to several other 19th-century books that would break the forum's "no NSFW" rule if I shared them. :PHonestly (to go off-topic) I can't understand the sort of... sacredness? of books nowadays.If anything, that's just another reason. I mean I'm not particularly desirous of "destroying fundamental data", as well, but destroying a copy is a gesture that I don't think I'd make either. Rare copies of old books (or anything not originally rare but actively endangered by such a practice) are indeed a loss to be avoided, but I don't treat that as my moral/practical limit on the issue.
Could understand waaaaaaaaaaay back when, when each book had to be transcribed rather than printed and thus you might actually have the only copy, but we mass produce books to such a stupid extent nowadays that when I was working in a charity shop we had a shed full of books for recycling that just got dumped in there willy-nilly because nobody'd buy them. They're a dime a dozen and so long as society doesn't collapse it'll stay that way.
Apparently there's been a good market in Iran for the Stars And Stripes flag (extra flammable!), at times. While there are some who would definitely treat that as a mortal insult (and others, similarly patriotic to the US but more philosophical, might even personally treat it more as a sign of positive affirmation of their homeland's status w.r.t. that of Iran), again I'm just bemused by the practice.
And, short of a suitably-scoped Infinity Glove finger-snap, these things are pretty much reduced to a gesture. One that doesn't achieve the stated aim in any realistic manner, so any truly considered motivation for the act can only really be justified as the means to a different ends, an intent that I just cannot relate to right now.
(But fill 'yer boots, those who do.)
Post by: martinuzz on June 22, 2023, 01:51:10 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 22, 2023, 02:00:55 am
Book burning is bad for the climate. At least waste it in a less wasteful way. Like use it for toilet paper. Okay, it will give you a black ass, but that's just a minor inconvenience. As an added bonus, it will clog up the Russian sewer systems, leading to great outbreaks of cholera and dysentery.I didn't burn any. Aside from the "defiled" books: I smashed Oblomov onto the floor until all the pages fell out, chopped War And Peace in half, and poured concentrated sulfuric acid on Anna Karenina. I then chucked the books' remains off a bridge into the river.
Sorry for polluting the river with toxic waste. :P
Post by: Strongpoint on June 22, 2023, 03:11:38 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 22, 2023, 03:29:07 am
Some kinks are truly weirdI admit I have a lot of weird kinks.
Post by: King Zultan on June 22, 2023, 06:07:51 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 22, 2023, 06:52:14 am
I kinda dislike classic literature (not just Russian) but I am a diehard science fiction fan so that's par for the course (our true enemies are not the fantasy fans, but those pretentious literary fiction fans!!!). But I wouldn't go this far. I don't really care what anyone does to it however.
Post by: Quarque on June 22, 2023, 06:55:56 am
I kinda dislike classic literature but I am a diehard science fiction fan so that's par for the courseRoadside Picnic?
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 22, 2023, 06:59:24 am
Not classic. It's from 1972. Anything before like, 1945, or even 1914, or so is not classic. And besides that's science fiction (and proves sci-fi can have literary merit).I kinda dislike classic literature but I am a diehard science fiction fan so that's par for the courseRoadside Picnic?
Post by: hector13 on June 22, 2023, 07:25:49 am
Shakespeare is rightly considered great, but he’s not above fart jokes.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 22, 2023, 07:29:04 am
An author having literary merit doesn’t (shouldn’t) really mean they’re high-brow.Yeah, also many "classic" books are just... overrated and boring. Historical curiosity at best. And in today's world I want escapism which is why I read (and write) sci-fi. lol
Shakespeare is rightly considered great, but he’s not above fart jokes.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 22, 2023, 07:30:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 22, 2023, 08:26:06 am
(not that I think that guys like Tchaikovsky wrote Russian music, they wrote European music with some, very minor, Russian influences here and there)
Post by: KittyTac on June 22, 2023, 08:39:16 am
MaxTheFox, KittyTac we found what you think about classical Russian literature, what do you think about classical Russian music, which, unlike the literature, did have some impact on the world mass culture?I don't hate it, I think it's beautiful and I wouldn't want to destroy any of it, a copy or in whole. Helps that I wasn't severely traumatized with it thanks to my asshole father, unlike literature.
(not that I think that guys like Tchaikovsky wrote Russian music, they wrote European music with some, very minor, Russian influences here and there)
Post by: martinuzz on June 23, 2023, 01:19:57 am
I disagree. A dead Russian won't be missed by Russia. A crippled quadriplegic will need 24/7 care for the rest of their lives, to feed them and wipe their arse, becoming a huge drain on Russian economy and workforce.
Strategically, in a long term conflict with a country that can replace losses by virtue of large population, it is better to maim than to kill.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 04:52:37 am
I don't know what kind of game this scum plays but it is entertaining
Vodeo here - https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672177488535977984
Post by: scriver on June 23, 2023, 08:51:19 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 09:00:36 am
Like I know people say they're playing "fractures" to mislead the west but that's basically anti-putin anti-war line if I understand it correctly?
Well, Prigozhin does play an old Russian game of "good Tsar deceived by bad boyars) shifting any blame away from Putin but he is going against a lot of Russian propaganda and directly attacks quite powerful men like Shoigu and Surkov.
I don't understand what is happening
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 23, 2023, 10:33:12 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 23, 2023, 11:00:11 am
MaxTheFox, KittyTac we found what you think about classical Russian literature, what do you think about classical Russian music, which, unlike the literature, did have some impact on the world mass culture?It's not bad but I'm just not a fan of the classics, like in general. Gimme EDM or metal or whatever.
(not that I think that guys like Tchaikovsky wrote Russian music, they wrote European music with some, very minor, Russian influences here and there)
Post by: Ganondworf on June 23, 2023, 11:03:37 am
Sounds like he's trying to skip to the "weasel out of being blamed for this mess" stage a bit early.Also sounds to me like the Wagner-version of our German stab-in-the-back myth, where the after WW1 people would say that the German army was never defeated in the field, but was "betrayed by certain citizens on the home front—especially Jews, revolutionary socialists who fomented strikes and labor unrest,[1] and other republican politicians". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stab-in-the-back_myth)
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 11:41:46 am
In an interview, a Ukrainian soldier expressed regret over wounding Russian soldiers with his mortar strike. He said killing them would have been better.You seriously believe Russia is going to spend one red rubble on their wounded veterans?!
I disagree. A dead Russian won't be missed by Russia. A crippled quadriplegic will need 24/7 care for the rest of their lives, to feed them and wipe their arse, becoming a huge drain on Russian economy and workforce.
Strategically, in a long term conflict with a country that can replace losses by virtue of large population, it is better to maim than to kill.
Russia is gonna let 'em die in the gutter.
Look at how the US treated it's veterans after the Vietnam War, and realize that the US is at least somewhat responsive to their people with a fairly comprehensive independently-owned media.
Good source for discontent though.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 11:44:20 am
Like I know people say they're playing "fractures" to mislead the west but that's basically anti-putin anti-war line if I understand it correctly?Nah.
"Ukraine didn't want to attack Russia" is different from
"Russia attacked Ukraine".
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 01:49:56 pm
*grabs a big bucket of popcorn*
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 02:04:21 pm
*chewing sounds*
Post by: brewer bob on June 23, 2023, 02:39:24 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 02:51:51 pm
https://twitter.com/wartranslated - this Twitter account is rather good at finding interesting bits in Russian\Ukrainian Twitter\Telegramm and translating them to English
Post by: jipehog on June 23, 2023, 03:05:56 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Jerick on June 23, 2023, 03:06:37 pm
It has some juciy quotes from Prigozhin:
Quote
Many dozens, thousands of lives, of Russian soldiers will be punished," Prigozhin said. "I ask that nobody put up any resistance. Somewhere they will show such resistance, we will consider it a threat and destroy them immediately. This includes any roadblocks standing in our way, any aircraft seen over our heads."Whatever is happening, something is going down at least.
He asked people to stay at home "along the path of our investigation."
Prigozhin said that by criticizing Russian military leadership, he is carrying out a "march of justice" and not a "military coup," alleging that a majority of Russian service members support Wagner.
"Finally, you will make them supply us with ammunition and make them stop using us as cannon fodder," Prigozhin added.
Popcorn time!
Post by: brewer bob on June 23, 2023, 03:09:44 pm
Quote
In a series of extraordinary audio messages released late on Friday, Prigozhin appeared to declare war on the Russian military leadership.
“Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped,” he said.
“Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.
“Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads,” he added.
“I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside. After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland.”
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 03:19:16 pm
Note that there is not a single negative word directed at Putin.
Edit: looks like this one is fake
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 03:44:06 pm
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."
Post by: Cathar on June 23, 2023, 04:00:09 pm
Edit : shit, it's already old news. I don't have enough popcorn. Shoigu, Gerasimov, where is my f-ing popcorn
Post by: jipehog on June 23, 2023, 04:07:15 pm
Maybe out of date, but: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65996531.amp (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65996531.amp)I don't believe this populist narrative for one bit. Putin decided to launch a military attack against Ukraine when it became clear to him that he did not have the political levers to bring about regime change there.
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star."
Post by: lemon10 on June 23, 2023, 04:10:51 pm
Which is why IMHO this isn't a proper coup, he isn't going after Putin, he's going after the army leadership.
Although that doesn't mean he can't go try to kill Putin later once he takes over the army, which given how much Putlin likes to fragment military control and kill any successful general makes me imagine he must be pretty worried about this anyways.
Post by: jipehog on June 23, 2023, 04:20:49 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 23, 2023, 04:22:44 pm
Moscow and Rostov have entered 'plan stronghold'. The cities are on lockdown, no one goes in or out. FSB and special forces are called in to create roadblocks on the highway between Moscow and Rostov. Police forces are on high alert to repel possible Wagner attacks.
Now would be a good time for a Ukrainian counter offensive
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 04:28:39 pm
i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?
It depends on his goals. If he really wants to just remove Shoigu from power and succeeds... nothing will change, except, perhaps, more professional people in charge of the Russian army.
If he wants to be a new Russian Tsar... Well, a lot will change.
I think his chances are not negligible, BTW. Not only he has a personal army, some army units may join him. Police, FSB and Russian National Guard can do nothing... And a lot of loyal to Shoigu troops are in Ukraine and can't be transferred fast enough,
Post by: Cathar on June 23, 2023, 04:34:12 pm
i'll be honest I have hard time imagining Prigozhin succeeding. But if he does, what will change?I don't have a doubt he can succed. The army is mobilized on the southern front, there's only the FSB, Rossguardia and riot control in front of him, and Wagner is known to be able to manhandle actual russian military formations in actual conflict. If he can make a dash to the Kremlin before reserves can be gathered, dreams may come true.
As for what happening, we don't know. Prigozhin doesn't seem to have a lot of political wants, aside of more power to himself. It depends on why he is doing this ; either he is used by Putin/ acts out of loyalty to reject the blame on the MoD in which case he will just organize a ministery turnover, or he has been bought by foreign agents and he will end the war.
In his last speech, he may clear that he think Putin is fed "lies and misinformations", "the war is fake" and built on the premise that Ukraine bombed Dombas for 8 years, whereas this is a lie.
Edit : Belarusian dictator Lukashenko flees Minsk in plane
Post by: Jerick on June 23, 2023, 04:43:23 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 04:44:21 pm
Post by: brewer bob on June 23, 2023, 04:46:23 pm
Edit : Belarusian dictator Lukashenko flees Minsk in plane
Wait, what?
Post by: Cathar on June 23, 2023, 04:48:39 pm
Kadyrov is absolutely silent, I think he is waiting to see who is winning.Honestly I think he's trying to learn how to lace his shoes.
His not blaming Putin is I think is him trying to be populist.Yeah, the boyars are bad but the Tsar is good, the good old russian song and dance.
But yeah it's either that, or he is teleguided by Putin. Man I can't wait to see that situation develop
Wait, what?Luka is reported to have boarded a plane at midnight and to have left the capitale.
Post by: da_nang on June 23, 2023, 05:00:24 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 23, 2023, 05:09:51 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 05:28:11 pm
I suspect Wagner/Prigozhin is pulling this out of desperation. There is probably some evidence they received that the Kremlin was looking to remove Prigozhin somehow, so they had to attack when their chance was the best.
Post by: Jerick on June 23, 2023, 05:29:17 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 05:31:46 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 23, 2023, 06:03:45 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 06:13:05 pm
2022: Russian army is 2nd in Ukraine!
2023: Russian army is 2nd in Russia!
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 06:16:09 pm
MOD just reported that OMON has destroyed 87k wagner fighters, 760 tanks and 100 stormshadowsI never knew Wagner had Tanks, let alone that number.
Post by: jipehog on June 23, 2023, 07:13:15 pm
It is a curious question who pays the bills.. is it just Prigozin or does have backers with deep pockets among the Siloviki.
Post by: nenjin on June 23, 2023, 07:25:55 pm
Post by: Cathar on June 23, 2023, 08:23:49 pm
It is a curious question who pays the bills.. is it just Prigozin or does have backers with deep pockets among the Siloviki.Prigozhin has a lot of very rich friends. He's an oligarch, and his business has a lot of clients. Tho it's pretty clear part of their stipend comes from the State - but here's the catch : his clients are interested in taking over the State too.
I never knew Wagner had Tanks, let alone that number.Lol Wagner has an airforce, tanks are nothing. They are a professional army. Not on the US level (when they tried to fight the US in a covert operation in Syria they got their butt handed to them) but it is by far the most experienced currently active russian formation, outperforming the VDV by far.
Speaking about the musician, they are currently in Rostov-On-Don. If they take the oblast, they will control the supply route of the whole army.
Whatever happens now it is looking good. Even if Prigozhin fails, get captured and Wagner is dismantled, the balance on the front will change in favor of the UA. Even if, in the best case scenario, it was just a big troll (which it pretty much cannot be anymore at this point) demoralization of RU soldiers would have had an effect in the mist of Ukrainian counter attack.
Either way it is going, this is very very very good.
Post by: KittyTac on June 23, 2023, 08:57:54 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 23, 2023, 09:22:42 pm
Now there's one in fucking June. I'm like the modern Nostradamus (because I also predicted "pseudosapient AI").
I can only hope for actual rebels to crop up amid the chaos.
Post by: Madman198237 on June 23, 2023, 10:50:56 pm
Post by: hector13 on June 23, 2023, 10:55:17 pm
Post by: Madman198237 on June 23, 2023, 10:56:07 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 23, 2023, 11:08:39 pm
Boy it's going to be interesting to see what happens in the next 24 hours or so.Me rn
(https://media.tenor.com/-kZOB16tELEAAAAS/this-is-fine-fire.gif)
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2023, 11:37:53 pm
_____________________
https://www.tiktok.com/@vonemka/video/7247999634835016986
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 24, 2023, 12:11:01 am
Post by: jipehog on June 24, 2023, 12:53:58 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 24, 2023, 01:03:11 am
I'n drunk;
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2023, 01:05:18 am
Nuclear weapons also aren't something you can fully get control of just by taking physical possession, even in the unlikely event they manage to get their hands on them. Anybody who's making warheads beyond extremely crude first-generation devices includes safeguards that will take considerable time to bypass. This is something that you pretty much have to do to prevent the things from going off by accident.
Whatever this is, nuclear forces aren't likely to come into it. Especially since Putin's been suspiciously silent the entire time, with only a probably pre-recorderd holiday video being released. That's very abnormal for a Strongman in these kinds of situations - Hitler was on the radio issuing orders and asserting control within six hours of being bombed when VALKYRIE went down.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2023, 01:37:16 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 01:40:44 am
But I don't want this, I want a long, high-scoring match in which both teams will have fun. The possibility of a quick Wagner's victory worries me.
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 01:57:17 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 02:18:35 am
I expect Moscow to fall before Monday
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 02:26:12 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2023, 02:36:06 am
Inside Russia, a clean win for either side would save a lot of pain.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 03:25:30 am
Whoever wins, I predict one or both sides will forget they're not in Ukraine anymore and thus continue the indiscriminate attacks on civilians out of sheer force of habit.
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian airforce already targets Wagner's columns together with civilian traffic.
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 03:32:24 am
Whoever wins, I predict one or both sides will forget they're not in Ukraine anymore and thus continue the indiscriminate attacks on civilians out of sheer force of habit.
There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian airforce already targets Wagner's columns together with civilian traffic.
Called it.
Post by: King Zultan on June 24, 2023, 03:56:32 am
And it looks like not even Russian civilians are safe from Russia's gotta kill all the civilians initiative.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 04:16:10 am
___________
Current mood in Ukraine - https://twitter.com/war__online/status/1672535209038827521
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 04:30:59 am
Post by: scriver on June 24, 2023, 04:52:05 am
Who knew that having an ~20-30K sized army of mercenaries with their own armor and SAMs and a charismatic leader is not a very wise idea?
Macchiavelli is spinning in his grave
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 04:56:21 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2023, 04:58:35 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 05:00:26 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 24, 2023, 05:08:46 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 05:25:45 am
Man, this war. It really is like a WWI reenactment with live ammo.The 2030s: "Somehow, Hitler returned."
Post by: Egan_BW on June 24, 2023, 05:27:30 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 24, 2023, 05:31:06 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 24, 2023, 05:35:51 am
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 06:09:05 am
Macchiavelli is spinning in his gravetbh Niccolo would not have considered Wagner to be mercenaries since they are Russian
Kadyrov declared his support for Putin. Interesting. I expected him to stay silent and wait it out.I think he's still a bit salty of that confrontation and murder attempt of his BROTHER Adam by Utkin and pal.
Also expecting anything smart from Kadyrov is a receipe for disapointment
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 06:15:10 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 24, 2023, 06:22:51 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 06:25:11 am
Macchiavelli is spinning in his gravetbh Niccolo would not have considered Wagner to be mercenaries since they are RussianKadyrov declared his support for Putin. Interesting. I expected him to stay silent and wait it out.I think he's still a bit salty of that confrontation and murder attempt of his BROTHER Adam by Utkin and pal.
Also expecting anything smart from Kadyrov is a receipe for disapointment
I don't expect smart, I expect basic survival instincts.
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 06:43:09 am
I don't expect smart, I expect basic survival instincts.Dude doesn't have object permanance yet, crisis assessment might aswell be 4 dimension geometry for him.
Akhmat is filming itself rolling toward Rostov...So who is remaining in Bakhmut ? The newly reformed VDV, and that's about it ?
Post by: Lidku on June 24, 2023, 06:58:28 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 07:39:51 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 07:57:42 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 24, 2023, 08:15:46 am
500 IQ geopolitical duginism mysticism despot
or
Guy who worked in customer service
Post by: Flying Teasets on June 24, 2023, 08:55:07 am
Post by: MorleyDev on June 24, 2023, 08:57:39 am
Post by: Madman198237 on June 24, 2023, 09:00:06 am
So there's a solid chance that if Prigozhin somehow wins this he's going to call off the war, maybe with enough concessions for Ukraine to be happy, if only so he can pull all his troops and resources back home to establish control.
Post by: Great Order on June 24, 2023, 09:14:20 am
At a bare minimum, Wagner's going to be a mess for a bit. At the most, they'll recall the troops to reestablish order whichever side wins.
Not to mention that there's likely to be immediate confusion on the front lines as the Russian military focuses inwards, even if temporarily.
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 09:15:11 am
Who would win*Guy who was a kiddy book author (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/01/wagner-head-prigozhins-past-life-as-a-childrens-author-and-illustrator-a81358)
500 IQ geopolitical duginism mysticism despot
or
Guy who worked in customer service
Anyhow!
BREAKING:
Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.
Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592)
And yeah we lost the war. gg wp
Post by: Madman198237 on June 24, 2023, 09:16:51 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 09:17:49 am
I'm kind of disappointed he didn't care about his image enough to stay, perhaps until it was just a bit too late and he could be shot down.When your arch-rival stayed when his capital was shelled to rubble and you flee from some tanks it really isn't doing wonders for your strongman image.
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 24, 2023, 09:20:15 am
*Guy who was a kiddy book author (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/01/wagner-head-prigozhins-past-life-as-a-childrens-author-and-illustrator-a81358)To corroborate the jet here is Reuters reporting this is in fact his jet (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-g20-germany-putin-flight-idUKKBN19S2UL)
Anyhow!
BREAKING:
Putin’s plane has left Moscow for St. Petersburg.
Looks like he is fleeing from the advancing Wagner Group military column (https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672572459076206592)
And yeah we lost the war. gg wp
And flight radar confirming his jet has taken off and is speeding away from Moscow (https://flightaware.com/live/flight/RA96022)
All aboard cope airlines
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 09:22:13 am
217th guard airborn defected to wagner
Honestly it doesn't matter how hardline Prigozhin is, or even if he succeeds or not. After the mutiny, Russia cannot physically continue the war
Post by: Grim Portent on June 24, 2023, 09:54:07 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 24, 2023, 09:57:52 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 10:03:42 am
Post by: Grim Portent on June 24, 2023, 10:14:41 am
It's funnier in hindsight realising Prigozhin tried to give an olive branch to Putin and say it was all Shoigu and the defence ministry, but Putin didn't take it. Now the die are cast and the Rubicon (Oka river in this case) is crossed
I am a bit surprised Putin didn't grab at the chance to scapegoat someone else and end the war. The whole thing has been a shitshow and an embaressment, someone offers you an excuse to walk away with less loss of face and you don't take it? Walk away, return land, make concessions, sell it to your populace as a tragic misunderstanding resulting from trusted ministers and advisors having been corrupted and spreading disinformation, return attention to keeping satellite states stable and write Ukraine off as out of reach. Seems like an obvious route to take.
I guess he must not have trusted Prigozhin, or there are more immediate threats in his vicinity that he's more concerned about and want to keep things going. Or maybe he's just not in a rational frame of mind.
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 10:19:06 am
I am a bit surprised Putin didn't grab at the chance to scapegoat someone else and end the war.
It's been said since the beginning of this whole invason, if Putin was actually a rational actor we wouldn't have had Putin's Small Penis Misadventure in the first place. :P
Post by: Jerick on June 24, 2023, 10:23:30 am
Post by: Starver on June 24, 2023, 10:32:07 am
Well, at least it's not in danger of becoming winter during any such overextension of forces. It'll surely resolve quickly, either way. If it drags out for more than a single season then it's a failure for both parties involved (as well as a lucky escape by the one that would otherwise have to have disasterously collapsed).
[1] Spiritual fluvial cousin to Aberdeen, Jarrow and Doncaster, as places I might actually have a real connection to/experience of... ;)
[2] Again, I could literally quote from Red Storm Rising, as I have so many times in the past in these various threads... If it turns out we're getting veteran professional soldiers integrating themselves into 'conscript' units to somehow engineer their "saving the Russian leadership from nebulous high-level threats in the very seat of government" I'm gonna seriously propose we start the process of beatifying Tom Clancy for having done precognition comparable to that ascribed to John The Apostle for the Book Of Revelations. Or at least reading his ossified remains in the hope of discovering next week's Lottery numbers!)
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 10:45:23 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 10:53:39 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 10:55:17 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 11:28:43 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 12:32:13 pm
Oh... Damn... I thought Prigozhin is smarter. Safety guarantees...
Post by: MorleyDev on June 24, 2023, 12:36:31 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 12:38:29 pm
The leader of Wagner mercenaries spoke with Lukashenko and reportedly agreed to stop the advance of all Wagner units in Russia and to make further steps to de-escalate the situation, as long as the group receives safety guarantees.
Oh... Damn... I thought Prigozhin is smarter. Safety guarantees...
Oh boy, someone's about to get a taste of that "shelling the evac corridor" experience aren't they. :D
Post by: Jerick on June 24, 2023, 12:41:53 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on June 24, 2023, 12:44:12 pm
That is the single stupidest thing he could possibly do in this situation.
I mean, one could argue that at least he's consistent with the rest of Russian war effort so far in that...
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 12:51:26 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 12:55:11 pm
Still a sign of things to come but damn, it was so close.
Post by: brewer bob on June 24, 2023, 12:58:42 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on June 24, 2023, 01:01:11 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on June 24, 2023, 02:11:08 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 02:29:12 pm
Wonder who'll replace Prigozhin after he has an unfortunate date with a window.
More convicts from what I've heard, evidently Putin is stepping up laws that provide more incentives for prisoners to sign up.
Still have given the two Russians caught up in this over in the BN dev team their daily reminder to be ready to nope out of there, preferably before Putler gives them a reason to need to.
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 02:34:43 pm
Well, that's already something. Losing Wagner is already good for Ukraine, and that little demonstration costed Russia three to five aircrafts, a couple bridge and roads in the Moscow Rostov highway.
That story was fun to follow.
Post by: Random_Dragon on June 24, 2023, 02:48:34 pm
- Russia now second strongest army in Venezuella.
- Syria takes Crimea.
- Putin's execution to be officially held in South Sudan
EDIT: The joke of course being, sending their merc group who (by virtue of having made it almost to Moscow with basically no effort) have clearly proven themselves to be more effective than the actual Russian army to go play in other countries not currently kicking their ass can totally only ever end well and won't possibly backfire by drawing them into a second quagmire while they're already busy losing to Ukraine.
Post by: Lidku on June 24, 2023, 03:00:53 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on June 24, 2023, 03:06:17 pm
What the hell was thatContract renegotiations.
Post by: Great Order on June 24, 2023, 03:08:13 pm
I expect him to perform a self-defenestration some point in the future.
Post by: MorleyDev on June 24, 2023, 03:12:48 pm
* They do not know where Prigozhin is.
* Avoiding bloodshed is more important than punishing them, so charges are going to be dropped.
* Wagner Troops will not be punished, and will be allowed to sign contracts with the MoD.
* Prigozhin will be moving to Belarus.
So guess Russia media's stance official line is that when two strong men go to conflict they both bend over?
Post by: Starver on June 24, 2023, 03:24:39 pm
[1] if this were a Mission Impossible plot (TV series or film-arc) then I'd suspect the IMF to have somehow passed a faked but credible-sounding communication from Putin[2] saying "I need to rid myself of these people, and I know that you can help me by ...". And thus The Dragon (http://"https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/TheDragon") thinks that he might ascend (perhaps become the Dragon-In-Chief/Dragon Ascendent instead of the Mook Lieutenant) but not imagining that he'll be taking on the role of The Starscream.
[2] Or an actual (deniable, but otherwise plausible) visit from a suitably latexed-up Rollin Hand/Great Paris/Ethan Hunt/Benji Dunn.
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 03:44:02 pm
What the hell was thatRussian popular demonstration done right (note that anti riot violence decreases with the number of IFV you can align in front of them)
Post by: EuchreJack on June 24, 2023, 03:56:15 pm
Post by: lemon10 on June 24, 2023, 04:28:47 pm
Wonder who'll replace Prigozhin after he has an unfortunate date with a window.After some thought this really isn't as stupid as it appears, and its entirely possible that this outcome was his goal all along.
And that's because assassinating him while he's surrounded by his troops is hard and if it fails he's going to march on Moscow again and this time won't turn around.
Putin can almost certainly do it safely once the war ends if he returns to civilian life... but with how popular he's gotten he was always going to try to assassinate him after the war ended anyways.
---
He has shown his resolve and that if he tries he has a chance.
Will he win? Probably not.
But more importantly no matter the outcome it would be really bad for Putin and the war with Ukraine will quickly end with a Ukrainian victory.
Post by: Cathar on June 24, 2023, 05:40:23 pm
It took a while to figure it out, but the resolution seems to be Alexander Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus, hired Wagner to garrison his own country. We'll see if Wagner decides that Belarus is actually a bit bigger than it was yesterday.Hiring a PMC able to disarm your national military and is led by someone more popular than you are... not a smart move, Despotato
Post by: martinuzz on June 24, 2023, 06:18:43 pm
Post by: da_nang on June 24, 2023, 06:48:46 pm
First Prigozhin essentially commits treason, and then he goes back to being best buds and has a sleepover at Luka's? I'm not buying it.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 24, 2023, 06:53:55 pm
But we won't really know anything until Wagner actually moves.
They might decide Rostov would make a fine capital for Wagnerlande.
Post by: nenjin on June 24, 2023, 07:04:51 pm
Also:
(http://i.imgur.com/hlqBioqm.png) (https://imgur.com/hlqBioq)
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2023, 07:22:09 pm
This is still incredibly damaging to the Russian state.
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 24, 2023, 07:34:21 pm
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 08:55:26 pm
Blergh. I hope any Russians that oppose the coup will die of horrible cancer.What? Prigozhin would be worse than Putin if he succeeded. This is why we were hoping for this to drag out and for rebels to show up sometime.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2023, 09:27:58 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2023, 10:31:55 pm
What the hell was that
This looks weird if you treat Russia as a country. Treat as a big criminal gang. Then such types of inner struggle will look far more logical.
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 10:37:57 pm
Kleptocracy.What the hell was that
This looks weird if you treat Russia as a country. Treat as a big criminal gang. Then such types of inner struggle will look far more logical.
Post by: KittyTac on June 24, 2023, 10:43:19 pm
Not sure if he'd be worse, but this was a case of one neofascist trying to overthrow another neofascist. He certainly wouldn't be any better.He is... marginally more competent at both military matters and statecraft. iirc
Which, as a proud traitor, I don't want.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 25, 2023, 12:19:34 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 25, 2023, 12:49:50 am
He backed down. But this really, really reminds me of Kornilov's coup attempt in 1917, which kind of was... a catalyst for you-know-what.
He backed down because he got what he was after, I mean.
Post by: jipehog on June 25, 2023, 01:45:41 am
Note that there have been talk for month about Prigozhins political ambition, prior to the end of Bakhmut fighting he said that he is planning to reduce its activity going back to working in the grey zone, saying that wagner will transform into some sort of ideological army. And we assumed that it would be something todo with Ukraine.
Post by: King Zultan on June 25, 2023, 02:58:06 am
Post by: Cathar on June 25, 2023, 04:32:05 am
Well damn I was hoping thoseYou're not the only one. And some other people who did (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672898587414482944) are extremely pissed because they deserted their units, shown their faces and published their support for the mutiny.wankersWagner guys would do something.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 25, 2023, 04:55:32 am
BTW, Kadyrov is either smarter than we give him credit for or it is idiot's luck. He demonstrated loyalty to Putin and I am sure he will get sone perks for this.
Post by: Cathar on June 25, 2023, 05:02:15 am
At this point Russia cannot even afford to discipline its troops so partaking to the mutiny was not that big of a deal, and even if Kadyrov was playing tricks for treat, his master is out of food to give him anyway
Post by: scriver on June 25, 2023, 05:25:22 am
I mean I know he's a Russian satellite and firmly under their influence as far as allies goes and I'm not saying he's not. But docs I've watched about him has gone on about the relationship between Putty and Luka not just being an overlord-puppet one and that Lukashenko has made sure that he is the one in charge Belarus not just as a figurehead but de facto as well, so that Russia has to go through him rather than over him. Was all that just overhyped?
Post by: Cathar on June 25, 2023, 05:48:15 am
It's disapointing but the situation is a good new overall. The chain of command is totally scrambled, soldiers are pissed at their command, supply lines are disrupted, 7 aircraft downed, 13 pilot killed and Wagner perma-disabled. That's good value for $0 spent.
Post by: Stench Guzman on June 25, 2023, 09:50:24 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: hector13 on June 25, 2023, 09:57:51 am
Prigozhin dies within the week?
Post by: KittyTac on June 25, 2023, 10:11:08 am
Putin is going to reassert his power.He will suddenly be found dead from two gunshot wounds to the back of the head. Cause of death: suicide.
Prigozhin dies within the week?
Post by: The_Explorer on June 25, 2023, 10:44:13 am
My opinion is...I probably kinda agree with my friend. The whole thing was really weird. The start was weird, the end was weirder. They take over bases, head to moscow...and...then...nothing.
The only way I can see it wasn't a ploy and the whole thing wasn't some weird plan for whatever reason...is if it was a "comedy" and they were just really all drunk and it was like some huge rave going on and random russians were joining in. So in a drunken rave, they all decided to lets have some fun and take over yeah! but then they got sober and realized that wasnt a good idea. Thats all I can imagine if it wasn't some weird ploy/setup/planned. Otherwise the whole thing is too weird.
Post by: Cathar on June 25, 2023, 12:18:32 pm
'A warlord vibe checks his employers' is a far more likely explanation than 'the FSB kills 13 pilots, downs 8 aircrafts, sabotage major highways, have Putin flee Moscow in an emergency to own NATO'
Post by: brewer bob on June 25, 2023, 12:24:06 pm
'the FSB kills 13 pilots, downs 8 aircrafts, sabotage major highways, have Putin flee Moscow in an emergency to own NATO'
Perhaps it was just a ploy to give the world something to laugh at and make Putin look...weak?
Post by: Cathar on June 25, 2023, 12:26:13 pm
Perhaps it was just a ploy to give the world something to laugh at and make Putin look...weak?"Appear smart when you are really retarded, and appear retarded when you are really smart" - Pu Tin, the art of the special military operation
Edit : At this point (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5BvOgv8WQQ) it doesn't matter if it's a ploy or not. The cost is just astronomical. Whatever can possibly be gained (?) from that shitshow will never outprice the cost of the mutiny.
Post by: Jopax on June 25, 2023, 12:46:51 pm
And if they try to disarm them anytime soon, I expect a similar reaction. Just shipping them off to Belarus and not touching them for the forseeable future seems like the safest bet all things considered. Because I seriously doubt there's enough trust left on either side for any sort of battlefield cooperation anytime soon.
And if Prigozhin starts shit in Belarus, maybe tries to oust Lukashenko then that gives Putin the perfect excuse to just pull out of Ukraine and devour Belarus under the pretense of getting rid of Wagner for good. Shit that might be the big 5head plan they're going for with this, who knows.
Things are way too fucky at the moment to be able to tell anything with certainty and will likely remain as such for a good long while.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 25, 2023, 12:47:21 pm
The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.
Post by: Grim Portent on June 25, 2023, 01:18:10 pm
Prig's a mercenary after all, money is high on his list of priorities, possibly higher than sadism or vindictiveness.
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 25, 2023, 01:52:15 pm
There's no possible gain for either side of this dispute faking it. The most likely explanation is that this is a legitimate coup attempt in which neither side had confidence in victory.
The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.
This. According to ISW, Prigozhin faced an existential political threat from the MoD trying to pull Wagner out from under him. As a last ditch effort he tried to dismantle the MoD by force, but failed to secure enough defections for a sure victory. Now both sides feel threatened and so they sign a deal, where Prigozhin gets to keep some of Wagner and fight stops.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 25, 2023, 01:53:43 pm
Russia tried to do the same, they wanted to force Wagner to become a regular part of the army and they failed
*which often meant funded by some oligarch
Post by: MorleyDev on June 25, 2023, 02:11:47 pm
The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.
Almost overthrowing your government by accident is probably the most 2020s thing I've ever heard...
Post by: Strongpoint on June 26, 2023, 02:09:08 am
LOL
Post by: King Zultan on June 26, 2023, 02:16:21 am
Post by: Lidku on June 26, 2023, 09:17:19 am
Post by: KittyTac on June 26, 2023, 09:30:24 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 26, 2023, 09:47:56 am
What if Prigozhin backing down is just a juke, and he's planning something under the table?
Looking back at some evidence, I believe that one of the reasons why Prigozhen folded is because he failed to get a truly good hand. The push to Moscow wasn't THAT quick and enough troops were transferred to Moscow (including by airlift) to stop a few thousand fighters rushing in.
Another important factor, not counting some very minor guys, no one supported Prigozhin. Yes, many were reluctant to obey orders (oh, I can only imagine all that sweet internal purging in the Russian military that is going right now) but it is not the same as joining.
Nevertheless, he had a good negotiating position to receive some guarantees.
1) His guys captured the supply and C&C Rostov hub, jeopardizing the war effort on the Donbas front and having resources to resist for a long time.
2) He captured several military airfields, threatening to destroy (or even use against Russia) substantial assets.
3) While taking Moscow (key buildings) was out of the question, the mere event of fighting there would be extremely damaging.
4) Ukrainian counter-offensive wasn't going anywhere. A few more days of chaos could cause a collapse on the frontlines
Lukashenka seems like the only true winner of this event, he got a personal army. They may have dubious loyalty but they are FAR better than Belarusian armed forces that can do nothing against Russia or even possible Belarusian uprising supported by, at the very least, Poland and Ukraine (and it will be supported, trust me)
Post by: jipehog on June 26, 2023, 10:30:28 am
Post by: eerr on June 26, 2023, 11:13:12 am
He knew that if this military company was folded in, he would be on the chopping block.
To avoid Putin forcing the move, he chose to rebel instead.
That's my guess at how the conflict started.
and everyone in Russia being afraid of the other guy checks out just fine.
That's what happens when you run a big, profit-oriented criminal organization, that people don't like.
Post by: martinuzz on June 26, 2023, 01:21:45 pm
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 26, 2023, 01:43:57 pm
According to the Telegraph, one of the reasons Wagner backed down was because their leader's families were being threatened by the FSB.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/06/25/yevgeny-prigozhin-moscow-advance-putin-threat-wagner-family/
They probably did threaten their families. But I doubt that was the main reason he backed down.
Post by: Cathar on June 26, 2023, 06:48:38 pm
Honestly, the way I read it, Prigozhin wanted to stay independent. But not just recently, like over the past ten years or something.Prigozhin is a siloviki who considers himself to be on the same level as or above the MoD and feels insulted when he receives orders. This is fine usually since his job is mostly doing wetwork in the third world, but when working alongside regular army this is chronically creating clashes. This is exacerbated by the fact his forces got wasted in a stupid engagement for prop reasons in Bakhmut and by other factors, such as Wagner absorbing MoD forces and vice versa.
He knew that if this military company was folded in, he would be on the chopping block.
Stuff that happend in the front were like, Prigozhin doesn't receive enough ammo, so he would absorb MoD squads and send them doing bayonet charges to test ukrainian lines or man trenches that were already filled with the corpses of previous russian squads (according to PoWs).
Prigozhin's behaviour is just prison behaviour. He is a thug, not a james bond villain.
He just vibe checked Putin with the express intent on making him his bottom boy. This is the only scenario that makes sense to me.
Lukachenko mastermind is a scenario I will never buy. Luka is not interested in Wagner nor he is in the war in general. His army is dogshit and specialized in riot control. He doesn't want to commit it, he doesn't want to pay the wages of a PMC.
Luka is a very reluctant participant, and having Prigozhin as a retainer puts a timer on his head.
Wagner attacks from Belarus ? Belarus de facto enters the conflict, which Luka tried his hardest to avoid. Prigozhin throws another tantrum ? Luka falls from a windows and Belarusians clap. This is a shit deal for him, and someone had to call in a favor for it.
Post by: King Zultan on June 27, 2023, 03:08:07 am
send them doing bayonet charges to test ukrainian lines or man trenches that were already filled with the corpses of previous russian squads (according to PoWs).Didn't know that Russia had devolved to using WW1 tactics.
Post by: jipehog on June 27, 2023, 04:58:20 am
Post by: Jerick on June 27, 2023, 07:11:15 am
Post by: Cathar on June 27, 2023, 07:58:44 am
That last part isn't true from what I can see. A lot of Wagnerites who followed him on this little mess feel intensely betrayed.Yeah no shit. Storm Z published support video where they put their faces and names, which brand them as criminals. And there was the incident of actual prison riots in support of Wagner from prisonners betting on their success. Yeah they did feel betrayed and they did feel multiple hits from blunt items too.
As for a win for Prigozhin... I'm waiting to see. Right now he has been separated from his troops, is in a foreign country, and we don't know what kind of deal he has. The MoD is still in place and there is no sign Putin will uphold their part of whatever bargain they stroke... but even so, every win Prigozhin may have had, if any, was made in the expense of the Russian war effort, not the Ukrainian.
By that logic, you can frame the death(?) of Denimkhanov as a win for Wagner. Yeah sure, Akhmat lost its Commanding Officer, but Utkin won an internet argument, so it's technically a win.
And you have to factor in that Prigozhin allies, the Chechens (Khadirov called Prigozhin "big brother" a couple month ago) and the little green men from Donestk (Girkin shared his opinion on Shoigu and even considered joining Wagner), now hate his guts with a passion and very publicly want him dead. And good luck working with Shoigu now. So, maybe not a full win.
Post by: jipehog on June 27, 2023, 08:01:59 am
Post by: Cathar on June 27, 2023, 11:55:46 am
Doesn't matter if it's memory holed, people don't come back to life, the airforce doesn't get rebuild because people stop talking about it.
In other news Ukraine has established a foothold left of the Dnipr and starts to advance toward Crimea.
Post by: jipehog on June 27, 2023, 01:13:35 pm
In other news Ukraine has established a foothold left of the Dnipr and starts to advance toward Crimea.I heard about it a few days ago, but let see if it holds, this isn't the first attempt and logistics operation across the rivers are tough..
Post by: Funk on June 27, 2023, 02:54:53 pm
He's now the man who would be czar.
Sat in exile with a loyal army.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 28, 2023, 01:45:44 am
Given as coups normally end with victory or a bullet in the head he's won.
He's now the man who would be czar.
Sat in exile with a loyal army.
I am not sure about the loyal army bit. Mercs are not very loyal by definition AND Prigozhin chickened out in the last moment pissing a lot of ordinary Wagner fighters with more ideological motivation.
Post by: King Zultan on June 28, 2023, 02:27:38 am
Post by: jipehog on June 28, 2023, 05:29:37 am
I am not sure about the loyal army bit. Mercs are not very loyal by definition AND Prigozhin chickened out in the last moment pissing a lot of ordinary Wagner fighters with more ideological motivation.In Ukraine Wagner had to recruit en mass from the bottom of the barrel, prior to that it was essentially Russian tool of influence built on a core of ideological Russia ex special force. Note that recently Prigozin said they opened recruitment centers all across Russia (reportedly some in schools) looking for young people preferably involved in sports to build a more ideological force.
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
Post by: Cathar on June 28, 2023, 05:59:20 am
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.Well no. When the riots were occuring, we were very much focused on the enthousiasm they generated. Maybe you didn't follow the story very closely but people were expecting and preparing a change of regime in Moscow. In Rostov, people were clapping at and hailing Wagner as they disarmed the police and the local military. When the police came back to Rostov, they were greeted with stones and insults.
We talk about the "dellusioned people" because, in this case, they are the one who talk and they are representative of the general opinion (at least in Rostov and in the prisons of Moscow)
Also full disclaimer : Prigozhin head of state would have been a worldwide catastrophe. He is an uneducated prison stuffing with a big gun and Dmitry '"Wagner" Utkin (the CO and also the origin of the teams name) is an honest-to-god national socialist. Get these guys into power, and you will have pogroms in Russia.
But I'm let down that we didn't had a full on civil war that would have expedited peace in the country I actually care about.
Disclaimer 2 : I don't take my informations from "western medias" and I'm very aware of what various sources of russian propaganda are saying, and I include their take into account ; a significant part of the concerned parties are extremely angry at how the situation seemingly resolved independently of the takes of CNN or BBC
Post by: Strongpoint on June 28, 2023, 06:26:22 am
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
I need no Western Media. I can see the impact in the Russian segment of Internet. I also know the "moral code" of Russian convicts well enough to know that what Prigozhin did is despised in those circles. And no, not only the recent recruits care about this code. Prigozhin is a criminal who lives by that code to some degree(at least pretends to), all of Wagner is built on that code.
Post by: Cathar on June 28, 2023, 07:52:13 am
So yeah. Luka is taking Prigozhin, not his Wagner friends.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 28, 2023, 12:29:51 pm
Otherwise, in the westren media we emphasize reports of disillusioned elements with good reason, however I would be careful to make conclusions based on those, we are talking about people who fought with each other for years and prazosin isn't one to lead from behind, a great populist and still have his troll factories.
I need no Western Media. I can see the impact in the Russian segment of Internet. I also know the "moral code" of Russian convicts well enough to know that what Prigozhin did is despised in those circles. And no, not only the recent recruits care about this code. Prigozhin is a criminal who lives by that code to some degree(at least pretends to), all of Wagner is built on that code.
Even discounting excons, this is the kind of thing that would break the personal loyalty his mercs might or might not have for him.
You dont need prison culture to analyze this. Its basic human dynamics. Leadership goes both ways, and followers do expect certain things from their leaders. Prickozhin embarked his men in a coup attempt (which they *really* wanted to do themselves, but ostensibly he'd have been the main beneficiary) yet chickened out midway and ended up signing a shit deal that basicañly pleased noone. He basically showed himself as cowardly and disloyal, and as such he can't really expect to keep his liutenaunt's respect IMO
Post by: nenjin on June 28, 2023, 01:06:26 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 28, 2023, 01:31:22 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 28, 2023, 01:37:52 pm
Edit: actually unconfirmed.
Post by: nenjin on June 28, 2023, 01:55:20 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on June 28, 2023, 02:55:54 pm
General Surovikin is arrested for treason. This scum is covered in Syrian and Ukrainian blood from tip to toe. I hope he'll enjoy Russian prison, he deserves it way more than Hague.
Edit: actually unconfirmed.
You know, this would actually further prove Putin's weakness. I mean, arresting a general for failing to stop the coup while the coup organizer goes free? Lol
Post by: Lidku on June 28, 2023, 03:28:01 pm
Post by: hector13 on June 28, 2023, 04:02:23 pm
I wasn’t all that interested in it though so no idea if he was actually on the flight(s).
Post by: EuchreJack on June 28, 2023, 06:22:22 pm
According to CNN, Wagner is going to be disbanded and turn their hardware over to Russia.HA
Post by: MorleyDev on June 28, 2023, 06:33:20 pm
Wagner: "Okay. Have this."
MoD: "What is it?"
Wagner: "Is potato."
*Wagner walks away, 'potato' explodes*
Post by: King Zultan on June 29, 2023, 03:52:02 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 29, 2023, 06:35:50 am
I doubt the Wager guys are just gonna give up their guns, because if they do I have a feeling their next mission will be a bayonet charge.
Strictly speaking, they merely want to take away tanks, mobile SAM, and MRLS. Stuff that no sane country will give to ANYONE but army units in the first place.
Post by: martinuzz on June 29, 2023, 06:48:42 am
In mother Russia, if you ave been a bad boy until you are 18, you are in prison and Wagner will give you a tank, who cares about driver's license.
Post by: jipehog on June 29, 2023, 07:17:49 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on June 30, 2023, 01:17:12 am
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 01:35:34 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 06:51:48 am
People look at me like I am a paranoic when I advise them to make a stockpile of water and canned food for the very likely event of Zaporizhzhia NPPP going BOOM.
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 10:09:14 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 11:00:17 am
Lets hope not. And for those not keep track according to Ukraine, Russia is reducing its presence at nuclear plant..
I am like 99.99% sure that Russia will blow stuff up. The main question is how much of the stuff. The only question is will it be a minor accident (and an inoperable station that will need $billions to recover), Fukushima, Chornobyl, or something much worse.
The worst part, I see no reason for Russians to restrain themselves, more damage to Ukraine and Europe = better for them. All they need to do is to wait until the winds will go West.
Post by: nenjin on June 30, 2023, 11:18:17 am
That doesn't matter much to a psychopathic actor, true. But I'd say semi-rational actors in the Russia government have at least a few reasons for not doing it.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 30, 2023, 11:25:25 am
The worst part, I see no reason for Russians to restrain themselves, more damage to Ukraine and Europe = better for them. All they need to do is to wait until the winds will go West.
Every time they've done something major, it has been rapidly followed by serious increases in the level of foreign aid - since the dam burst, cluster munitions (valuable as much because the US has fucktons in storage as for their actual effect), jet fighters, and ATACMS missiles went from "almost certainly not, at least no time soon" to "almost certain, timetable's a bit in the air". This would be a risk even if multiple major actors hadn't started publicly urging for direct intervention in the event of a power plant breach. If Russia believes that threat is real, that even limited direct intervention is possible it is a nightmare thought - any of the second tier air forces in NATO (the Royal Air Force, the French Air Force, the Luftwaffe, or the United States Navy's Army's Air Force) has enough combat power to radically change the calculus of this war.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 11:56:50 am
Counter-argument: destroying a NPP and contaminating Europe will bring the entire world together to punish Russia.
Will it? I doubt that China and\or India will care enough to deny themselves profits. And Africa will become even more dependent on Russian agricultural export with the Ukrainian agricultural sector out of the picture. And all Pro-Russian part of the Western public will remain Pro-Russian believing that it was Ukraine who blew up the station.
The only thing that Russia may kinda worry about is more NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine. But it is the thing - Russia knows that it already lost the war, it is just a matter of time. They are in the scorched earth phase: hurt Ukraine as much as possible before retreating. And they know that NATO will not invade or bomb Russia proper
Post by: nenjin on June 30, 2023, 12:03:58 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 01:45:39 pm
China will do what it usually does in diplomacy - say many empty words about both sides and a tragic disaster.
Europe will also express a lot of concerns (and be busy dealing with nuclear contamination and a huge new wave of refugee). Sorry, I see no indications that any major action will be taken. If there was any determination to stop Russia from doing something unpleasant with the NPP, the world would act from the day it was captured or after it became known that Russia is actively mining the area.
Also, any major action after that thing will go boom, won't even help.
Post by: nenjin on June 30, 2023, 01:50:52 pm
That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.
Post by: brewer bob on June 30, 2023, 01:53:36 pm
They will intentionally destroy the NPP and claim that Ukraine did it. Just as they have done with the dam and faced no consequences whatsoever
Pretty much have the same thoughts.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 02:09:45 pm
Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.
That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.
Destroying Kakhovka Dam is not "destroying bridges". It is an act of ecocide far more damaging than a few tactical nukes and the way how it is downplayed in the West is exactly what scares me.
Let's be real Chernobyl catastrophe wasn't that big of a deal on a planetary or even European scale. 10X Chernobyl won't be that big of a deal either. No, knowing how radiophobic most of Europe is (hello Germany), there will be entertaining panic but the real damage will be confined to Ukraine and, maybe, the Black Sea
Post by: nenjin on June 30, 2023, 02:23:27 pm
Destroying bridges isn't the same thing as detonating a NPP.
That said, if they're willing to destroy the plant then chances are the entire Russia government and society are already in free fall.
Destroying Kakhovka Dam is not "destroying bridges". It is an act of ecocide far more damaging than a few tactical nukes and the way how it is downplayed in the West is exactly what scares me.
Let's be real Chernobyl catastrophe wasn't that big of a deal on a planetary or even European scale. 10X Chernobyl won't be that big of a deal either. No, knowing how radiophobic most of Europe is (hello Germany), there will be entertaining panic but the real damage will be confined to Ukraine and, maybe, the Black Sea
Sorry, I said bridges when I meant damn.
And the degree to which destroying the power plant affects neighboring countries comes down to how it's done and how extensive the devastation is. I find it curious though that you're downplaying the effects of Chernobyl. When you can detect radioactive isotopes in the air many countries away, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking that more seriously than the ecological devastation of destroying a damn. Neither are good, both have long term consequences, but the consequences of radioactive fallout are more damaging and not localized just the area where the most devastation occurred. We still don't really know what all the long-term consequences of the Chernobyl accident are, and what it's links to cancer and birth defects outside of Ukraine are.
But we do know that the spread of radioactive contamination is a more enduring threat than the ecological damage and change from breaching a damn.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 30, 2023, 02:36:18 pm
Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
Russia is no doubt aware of this. This indeed opens up the possibility that, if Russia does anything to the Nuclear Power Plant that spreads large amounts of radiation, then some lesser-known Weapon of Mass Destruction from the US Armory could be donated to Ukraine.
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 02:43:09 pm
Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
I'm pretty sure this isn't true. There's a separate international treaty, the convention on cluster munitions, which prohibits it's signatories from making/using them, but neither the US nor Ukraine are signatories of that.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 30, 2023, 02:53:38 pm
I'm sure the signatories would still consider their use to be a war crime. But at any rate, it's a clear escalation of weapons being provided.Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
I'm pretty sure this isn't true. There's a separate international treaty, the convention on cluster munitions, which prohibits it's signatories from making/using them, but neither the US nor Ukraine are signatories of that.
A couple articles from Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law)
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 03:00:47 pm
I'm sure the signatories would still consider their use to be a war crime. But at any rate, it's a clear escalation of weapons being provided.
A couple articles from Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_munition)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law)
It's a an escalation yes, and there's real human cost because it'll probably be impossible to get a 100% success rate on cleaning them up after the war, and thus there's a good chance that at some point civilians will die, this is probably why the US has been hesitant, but civilians are going to die anyway, this war is going to escalate (one way or another) anyway.
And no, they wouldn't consider it a war crime because Ukraine didn't sign up to not do it... That's not how it works.
Also yes, those Wikipedia links agree with me, I guess I should have posted them to show you your mistake instead of relying on my memory, thanks.
Edit: If you click though the cluster munitions page to the page of the treaty I was talking about there's this line "In response to U.S. lobbying, and also concerns raised by diplomats from Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom and others, the treaty includes a provision allowing signatory nations to cooperate militarily with non-signatory nations. This provision is designed to provide legal protections to the military personnel of signatory nations engaged in military operations with the U.S. or other non-signatory nations that might use cluster munitions.[25] David Miliband, who was Britain's foreign secretary under Labour, approved the use of a loophole to manoeuvre around the ban which allows the US to keep the munitions on British territory.[26]"
This isn't like some crime against humanity that everyone can agree should be against the rules of war and people should be punished for doing it even if they don't sign a treaty saying they won't. There's apparently a specific clause saying that signatories can continue to work with people that use cluster munitions... That's not the sort of thing you put into rules about absolute moral failures. They absolutely aren't going to turn around and start hating on Ukraine for doing it.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 03:21:49 pm
I think Ukraine getting Cluster Munitions from the US, and tying that into a reaction to Russia destroying the Dam, is understated.
Cluster Munitions are downright illegal under the Geneva Convention. The US is essentially aiding Ukraine in committing a War Crime by providing those munitions to Ukraine.
Russia is no doubt aware of this. This indeed opens up the possibility that, if Russia does anything to the Nuclear Power Plant that spreads large amounts of radiation, then some lesser-known Weapon of Mass Destruction from the US Armory could be donated to Ukraine.
No. Cluster munitions are not banned by Geneva conventions. There is a quite recent treaty ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_Cluster_Munitions ) and neither Ukraine nor USA are signatories of it.
And again, why would Russia care that Ukraine will get more and better weapons? They already lost the war in Ukraine, now there are new goals: Make Ukraine pay for liberated territory and make liberated territory as useless as possible. Scorched Earth.
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 03:59:00 pm
I hope the fucking retards who did that will get killed in very slow ways. I hope they scream and gurgle for at least 2 hours before dying.
EDIT: Meanwhile, the USA is contemplating committing war crimes, by supplying Ukraine with internatially banned cluster bomb ammo, to drive the Russians from their trenches and fortified positions. (Cluster munitions are banned, because using them means that 20 years from now, toddlers playing in the sand will still get blown to shreds by the remnants of those fuckers. That shit is worse than anti personell landmines).
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 04:13:17 pm
EDIT: Meanwhile, the USA is contemplating committing war crimes, by supplying Ukraine with internatially banned cluster bomb ammo, to drive the Russians from their trenches and fortified positions. (Cluster munitions are banned, because using them means that 20 years from now, toddlers playing in the sand will still get blown to shreds by the remnants of those fuckers. That shit is worse than anti personell landmines).
This is just the conversation we've been having over the past few posts. I think the salient points are A: Not a warcrime, because neither US or Ukraine are part of the treaty that banned them B:Toddlers now are being blown to shreds by Russians, and it will only get worse if Russia doesn't loose faster or start to win. Ukraine believes that it is the lesser of two evils. And I agree with that. It's an absolute tragedy but there's no "good end" to this war, just less bad ones.
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 04:13:45 pm
btw according to some definition of cluster munition, Urkaine is already using them i.e. the "mine shells" (whatever they called), that are used during engagements to mine access roads behind enemy lines to cutoff Russian counter-attacks/reinforcements
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 04:17:43 pm
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.
Post by: Great Order on June 30, 2023, 04:23:03 pm
EDIT: Meanwhile, the USA is contemplating committing war crimes, by supplying Ukraine with internatially banned cluster bomb ammo, to drive the Russians from their trenches and fortified positions. (Cluster munitions are banned, because using them means that 20 years from now, toddlers playing in the sand will still get blown to shreds by the remnants of those fuckers. That shit is worse than anti personell landmines).IIRC it's also because they're imprecise so any use on positions near civilians can very easily result in civilian casualties.
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 04:28:23 pm
Cluster Munitions is as legal as Russian incendiary weapons. And can be very useful against entrenched forces.You cannot compare incendiary weapons (even white phosporus) with cluster munitions. White phosporus and napalm are horrible, but they are done burning within a few hours / days.
btw according to some definition of cluster munition, Urkaine is already using them i.e. the "mine shells" (whatever they called), that are used during engagements to mine access roads behind enemy lines to cutoff Russian counter-attacks/reinforcements
Cluster munitions will keep killing innocent civilians for decades if not centuries.
I would be less outraged at using nerve gas against trenches than I would be outraged about using cluster munitions on trenches.
Post by: Egan_BW on June 30, 2023, 04:31:30 pm
Not saying that's good, but if the USA weren't a global hegemony, I bet a lot fewer states would ban such things, because they'd be afraid of denying themselves something vital to security.
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 04:33:42 pm
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.
Okay that's a fine philosophy to have, but I have a question, how much do you think dutch moral superiority over the savage Ukrainan alleviates the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death?
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 04:37:23 pm
Don't get me wrong. I understand the plight of the people of Ukraine. And I stand with them. Fuck the Russian invading fuckers, make them all die.
But that is no carte blanche to say 'fuck all international rules and treaties about warfare'. Like, not at all.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Besides, despite the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death, I don't think any Ukrainian would like the solution to that to be that their children, grand children, great grand children and their respective dogs and cats can be randomly blown to bits by the remnants of wars of eras past. Because that's exactly what cluster munitions do.
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 04:42:13 pm
In case of cluster munition they were banned due to high recurrence of duds and follow up civilians casualties, same reason why anti personal mines are banned (not that it stopped russia) But you are allowed to use anti-personnel mines if they are command denotated.. and this evoled to things like M7_Spider (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M7_Spider) all of which is legal and as human as any other weapon of war.
Also I was talking about Remote Anti-Armor Mine System (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remote_Anti-Armor_Mine_System) which is essentially cluster munition but the ok kind (as not covered by either cluster munition or mine regulations)
EDIT: my point is that not all cluster munition are illegal, you need to be more specific about what we are talking about.
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 04:45:00 pm
I dunno man, we don't have things like a Geneva convention and treaties to ban cluster munitions and anti personell mines for no reason.
We have them to avoid civilian causalities. Or specifically, for the ban on cluster munitions, you have them because your nation exists in a world order so completely dominated by a single hegemonic power and a rules based international order propped up by said power that has at least locally has subsumed any realistic chance of war that the question of if the Netherlands will loose civilians in a war has little to do with the actions of the Netherlands. For people that don't enjoy that level of security in the world, for instance, nations located next to Russia, they declined to sign the treaty because they thought that there were worse threats to their civilian populations then their own use of these weapons, and history seems to be proving at least one of said nations correct.
Besides, despite the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death, I don't think any Ukrainian would like the solution to that to be that their children, grand children, great grand children and their respective dogs and cats can be randomly blown to bits by the remnants of wars of eras past. Because that's exactly what cluster munitions do.
Except of course, for the Ukrainans asking for cluster munitions?
The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
I'd argue that even if this is true, it's traveled down with bad actions.
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 04:49:03 pm
Except of course, for the Ukrainans asking for cluster munitions?
Fair enough, let me rephrase.
Besides, despite the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death, I don't think any *sane* Ukrainian would like the solution to that to be that their children, grand children, great grand children and their respective dogs and cats can be randomly blown to bits by the remnants of wars of eras past. Because that's exactly what cluster munitions do.
Let's just say.. Public opionion is with Ukraine in the West European world. Doing things like asking for cluster munitions is not helping that cause. Ask for anything. Ask for jet fighters, ask for long range missiles, ask for, helll, even ask for MOABs. Just don't ask for nukes, chemical weapons, biological weapons, or cluster munitions. The population here does not like that.
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 04:55:59 pm
How do you think the country is functioning if so many people in power are insane?
No, I think there's a very fraught but very sane calculation going on here about the long term costs of cluster munitions and the short term costs of not using them. And I think your dismissal of that calculation as insane and barbaric comes from a very overly comfortable place where you know that neither you nor your loved ones are in danger either way.
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 04:58:40 pm
To clarify, you think that the command structure of the Ukrainian military and the ranking relevant Ukrainian politicians are insane?Luckily, no. Just the one or two idiots that thought it a good idea to ask for cluster munitions.
No, I think there's a very fraught but very sane calculation going on here about the long term costs of cluster munitions and the short term costs of not using them. And I think your dismissal of that calculation as insane and barbaric comes from a very overly comfortable place where you know that neither you nor your loved ones are in danger either way.If this conflict escalates, I will be very much in danger, living within 100% lethal range of even a small nuke on a strategically very important NATO airport, not to mention the close proximity of the military base where the Netherlands 'totally does not store US nukes until it was admitted by government that we actualy *do* have nukes there'.
Yet you're right, at the moment my country is not being destroyed, my family is not being killed, I do not have wives or children that can be raped to death, so I am indeed in a comfortable, albeit not overly so place.
I am however a descendant of holocaust survivors. I know the insanity of war and mass destruction by authoritarian regimes. I have every reason to want Russia to be defeated.
But I still will call cluster munitions barbaric and insane.
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 05:11:17 pm
To clarify, you think that the command structure of the Ukrainian military and the ranking relevant Ukrainian politicians are insane?Luckily, no. Just the one or two idiots that thought it a good idea to ask for cluster munitions.
How exactly does that work? The US can not just unilaterally decide that the Ukrainian army are now using cluster munitions, and attempts to do so would be... extremely stupid. If the US sends Cluster Munitions to Ukraine it will be because the Ukrainian military wants them and Ukrainian politicians asked for them. Not just "one or two idiots"
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 05:12:00 pm
I can because the legality of these ammunition is the same.Cluster Munitions is as legal as Russian incendiary weapons. And can be very useful against entrenched forces.You cannot compare incendiary weapons (even white phosporus) with cluster munitions. White phosporus and napalm are horrible, but they are done burning within a few hours / days.
btw according to some definition of cluster munition, Urkaine is already using them i.e. the "mine shells" (whatever they called), that are used during engagements to mine access roads behind enemy lines to cutoff Russian counter-attacks/reinforcements
Cluster munitions will keep killing innocent civilians for decades if not centuries.
I would be less outraged at using nerve gas against trenches than I would be outraged about using cluster munitions on trenches.
Otherwise AT mines will be killing innocent civilians for decades if not centuries and they are perfectly legal. As for cluster munitions, if used right it can save a lot of lives and end the war by provide a much needed breakthrough and its future harm mitigated, so this might be a question of proportionality (was nuking Japan fine?). On the other hand incendiary weapons are cruel, they cause horrific burn and pain, people die suffering or left with long-term injuries.
Do we actually know what cluster munition Ukraine ask for?
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 05:22:03 pm
(was nuking Japan fine?).No, it was barbaric and insane (not to mention strategically unnescessary, since Japan was already defeated and terrified by carpet fire bombing towns and villages), although the knowledge of how bad the atomic bomb was, was less wide spread than current day knowledge about how bad cluster munitions are for future generations. Can't compare them with AT mines, for AT mines are both less numerous, and much more detectable ('hey a rusty piece of iron' (unexploded cluster munitions) vs 'Dude!!!! That looks like a mine!' (for the few AT mines left post war).
https://reliefweb.int/report/world/unicef-highlights-horrific-impact-cluster-munitions-children-governments-meet-decide
Post by: Criptfeind on June 30, 2023, 05:30:21 pm
I am however a descendant of holocaust survivors. I know the insanity of war and mass destruction by authoritarian regimes. I have every reason to want Russia to be defeated.
I'm not sure 100% if this is an appropriate response, but I don't think I can't make it at this point.
You're the descendant of holocaust survivors, in Ukraine, survivors of an ongoing attempt at genocide are fighting to prevent it. You "know" the insanity of war and mass destruction by authoritarian regimes, in Ukraine, they live that insanity and destruction. You claim to have every reason to want Russia to be defeated, in Ukraine they have many more reasons then you do.
Even to me even as someone who is not in Ukraine and probably even more comfortably isolated from the war then you are these statements, and your dismissal of the Ukrainians fighting for their lives and country as barbaric and insane seemly frankly deeply disrespectful and insulting.
If you want to say you think that even with the costs of the current ongoing war the costs of cluster munitions are too great, fine, say that. But dismissing people who don't share your opinion in this way is vile.
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2023, 05:35:39 pm
I just draw a line at the use of cluster munitions, and other weapons deemed inhumane by treaties and conventions.
If I didn't we could all just as well say fuck all, become Russian right now and have it done with.
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 05:48:54 pm
Can't compare them with AT mines, for AT mines are both less numerous, and much more detectable ('hey a rusty piece of iron' (unexploded cluster munitions) vs 'Dude!!!! That looks like a mine!' (for the few AT mines left post war).The simple fact is that AT mines are certain to kill many innocent civilians for decades. Your argument is one of proportionality, that they are less lethal hence you think its fine. So how do you draw that line between barbaric and insane vs meh? I think its important to recall why did we drew the line and why and think on whether this applies here.
Post by: Starver on June 30, 2023, 06:23:06 pm
[...] not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea.Well, Afghanistan signed/rattified/fully joined the CoCM, actually. Ironically whilst under the US-backed admnistration, but then that was maybe still a high-water mark for international responsibility, compared with immediately prior and since.
No similar thing can be said about Kim's World Of Adventure, the other example you give, but given that that place is the world's Hikikomori who might just be on the verge of firing high-powered weapons out of its bedroom window at 'everyone wot done him wrong' (or at least making it look like he might if you so much as look at his haircut funnily), I don;t think there's superlatives available to directly cover both cases.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 30, 2023, 08:20:21 pm
I would respectfully ask everyone to calm down for a bit, otherwise I may need to lock this thread temporarily.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2023, 09:06:07 pm
Except of course, for the Ukrainans asking for cluster munitions?
Fair enough, let me rephrase.
Besides, despite the discomfort of the average Ukrainan as his country is destroyed, his family killed, and his wife and children raped to death, I don't think any *sane* Ukrainian would like the solution to that to be that their children, grand children, great grand children and their respective dogs and cats can be randomly blown to bits by the remnants of wars of eras past. Because that's exactly what cluster munitions do.
Let's just say.. Public opionion is with Ukraine in the West European world. Doing things like asking for cluster munitions is not helping that cause. Ask for anything. Ask for jet fighters, ask for long range missiles, ask for, helll, even ask for MOABs. Just don't ask for nukes, chemical weapons, biological weapons, or cluster munitions. The population here does not like that.
Then count me in as an insane Ukrainian. Do you know what will kill our children and grandchildren far more effectively than unexploded bomblets? Not defeated Russia. It is just a messy, bloody, unpleasant tradeoff.
Also, there is a big difference between being Russia, and indiscriminately using cluster munitions anywhere, including outright targeting cities and forests and using cluster munitions to push through heavily fortified positions, places that will be well known and will require extensive demining effort anyway.
Also, it is a bit late to worry about Ukrainian morality, we are sending captured cluster munitions back to Russians since the war started.
Also, also https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-seeks-us-cluster-bombs-adapt-drone-use-lawmakers-2023-03-06/ - Not all of them will even be used as intended. We are running out of stuff to put on drones.
Post by: KittyTac on June 30, 2023, 09:27:38 pm
Let's just say that over here, they are banned and viewed as a great evil. One of our biggest banks was almost destroyed when people quit their accounts en masse, because they invested some of their funds in cluster munitions.Nah as long as my country loses and is buttfucked as hard as possible it's justified.
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 30, 2023, 09:57:14 pm
Post by: jipehog on June 30, 2023, 10:03:04 pm
I just draw a line at the use of cluster munitions, and other weapons deemed inhumane by treaties and conventions.My point is that line is arbitrary, that was shaped by interests and circumstances as Criptfeind noted.
If I didn't we could all just as well say fuck all, become Russian right now and have it done with.
I wouldn't be surprised if most common ammunition dud rates are far higher than that of modern cluster bombs (more so for all the old soviet stock and ammunition we sent) and so between that the million+ rounds and some absurd sounding estimates that 40 percent of Ukraine's total land area is mined I don't see that few cluster bomb will make a difference on this front. On the other hand I do see how cluster munitions can be useful against dug-in Russian positions and help reduce the ammo hunger.
Otherwise I don't subscribe to the black and white notion of freedom fighter vs terrorist, its good guy narrative for the unaware (you do realize that Ukraine using a lot of "illegal" stuff too that isn't advertised) and they aren't pandering to the idealist they are fighting an existential war in the real world
Post by: Madman198237 on June 30, 2023, 11:07:16 pm
Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.Sweet goodness, what the hell are these people smoking? That's a hell of a hot take for somebody to actually, seriously believe. I understand the US isn't perfect but this... I'm struggling to figure out if I should be furious or laughing my head off.
And even past that the incredible nonsense of regarding cluster munitions as being on the same level as NBC weapons is just....so far beyond the pale. This is nonsense to the Nth degree. Radiation, biological attacks, on the same level as a weapon that's just "more small bombs"? The perspective of what makes a war crime a war crime is just...missing there.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 30, 2023, 11:16:56 pm
But we seem to be de-escalating.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 30, 2023, 11:34:11 pm
Post by: Madman198237 on June 30, 2023, 11:46:41 pm
@Madman: I thought you weren't going to continue the cluster debate. That would imply that you'd put all your comments on it under the spoiler, and you wouldn't be responding to other people's comments on cluster munitions.
But we seem to be de-escalating.
Then I caught the "US is as bad as literal murderous dictatorships because cluster munitions". Whoops. I don't think "cluster munitions do not make the US as bad as Afghanistan or North Korea" is a particularly argumentative take though seeing as how nobody in this thread is espousing it---martinuzz is reporting it as a belief of other people.
Post by: Duuvian on July 01, 2023, 03:50:31 am
Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny says lack of fighter jets, artillery hampering offensive.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/1/ukraine-commander-irked-by-lack-of-arms-promised-for-offensive
Has pilot training comenced? I'm beginning to grow frustrated saying the same things.
------------
As to cluster munitions, I think it's a damn shame the treaty didn't have the signatories needed to make it effective. I said as much long ago.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 01, 2023, 04:05:55 am
This war has already created a generational UXO hazard for Ukraine. Adding bomblets won't make that significantly worse.
Post by: King Zultan on July 01, 2023, 04:34:35 am
I just took that whole thing as martinuzz acting all morally superior up there on his high horse in country unaffected by the war.Also, and well yeah, because the USA and Ukraine did not sign the treaty against cluster munitions, your countries are seen as barbaric failed states by a lot of people, not much better than Afghanistan or Best Korea. For some, Best Korea is more civilized than the USA, because even though both have nuclear, biological, chemical weapons and cluster munitions, at least in Best Korea civilians do not have guns.Sweet goodness, what the hell are these people smoking? That's a hell of a hot take for somebody to actually, seriously believe. I understand the US isn't perfect but this... I'm struggling to figure out if I should be furious or laughing my head off.
And even past that the incredible nonsense of regarding cluster munitions as being on the same level as NBC weapons is just....so far beyond the pale. This is nonsense to the Nth degree. Radiation, biological attacks, on the same level as a weapon that's just "more small bombs"? The perspective of what makes a war crime a war crime is just...missing there.
Post by: Duuvian on July 01, 2023, 04:39:10 am
Ninja'd: No Zultan, martin is not necessarily wrong on this issue. It is circumstances that override this imo, as Shonus has detailed.
Post by: jipehog on July 01, 2023, 05:19:23 am
We can try a different angle. Main reason that specific cluster bombs were banned its indiscriminate nature coupled with high dud rate, by that logic your run of the mill improvised explosive device (IED) activated by Nokia phone used by terrorist is more "humane" than many things used by the "good guys" in Europe before that.
won't make a damn bit of difference to public support.Yeah this happens with every new announcement of means, usually its forgotten with the month.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 01, 2023, 05:33:28 am
Main reason that specific cluster bombs were banned its indiscriminate nature coupled with high dud rate, by that logic your run of the mill improvised explosive device (IED) activated by Nokia phone used by terrorist is more "humane" than many things used by the "good guys" in Europe before that.
It is entirely the dud rate (the wide area of effect just puts the onus on the user to aim them right, it wasn't a major factor in the ban - a lot of the "alternative warhead" programs like the tungsten shot used by some GMLRS rounds are intended to try regaining the area-effect lost by decommissioning bomblets), which is unavoidable. Not only are there flaws in any manufacturing process, an impact-fuzed bomblet has to be insensitive enough to not detonate just from the buffeting of air on the way down. And the impact of hitting dirt isn't that much more severe than the effects of aerial turbulence. Especially when the dirt it is hitting is already being shaken by hundreds of other explosions.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 01, 2023, 11:18:03 am
Post by: EuchreJack on July 01, 2023, 12:32:55 pm
And I imagine it's the older, more dud prone munitions that are being donated. Although that is just idle speculation.Main reason that specific cluster bombs were banned its indiscriminate nature coupled with high dud rate, by that logic your run of the mill improvised explosive device (IED) activated by Nokia phone used by terrorist is more "humane" than many things used by the "good guys" in Europe before that.
It is entirely the dud rate (the wide area of effect just puts the onus on the user to aim them right, it wasn't a major factor in the ban - a lot of the "alternative warhead" programs like the tungsten shot used by some GMLRS rounds are intended to try regaining the area-effect lost by decommissioning bomblets), which is unavoidable. Not only are there flaws in any manufacturing process, an impact-fuzed bomblet has to be insensitive enough to not detonate just from the buffeting of air on the way down. And the impact of hitting dirt isn't that much more severe than the effects of aerial turbulence. Especially when the dirt it is hitting is already being shaken by hundreds of other explosions.
Post by: jipehog on July 01, 2023, 01:18:19 pm
Also I suspect that this might be the ammunition that Ukraine is asking for: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dual-purpose_improved_conventional_munition
Post by: EuchreJack on July 01, 2023, 01:18:43 pm
https://me.pcmag.com/en/security/17887/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider (https://me.pcmag.com/en/security/17887/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider)
Post by: Grim Portent on July 01, 2023, 01:38:02 pm
Wagner apparently isn't just gonna go away.
https://me.pcmag.com/en/security/17887/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider (https://me.pcmag.com/en/security/17887/wagner-hackers-say-they-shut-down-russian-satellite-internet-provider)
Hmm, so it could be actual Wagner, a splinter group of dissaffected members of Wagner, a Russian dissident group that wants to trade on Wagner's reputation, or a false flag by other parties seeking to exploit the societal fractures caused by Wagner's aborted coup? That's a pretty broad range of possible people.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 01, 2023, 01:58:37 pm
Post by: hedgerow on July 01, 2023, 03:34:23 pm
Norsk Pipeline.
Here's a funny face: :D
Ooh!
Post by: jipehog on July 01, 2023, 04:58:23 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 01, 2023, 10:42:14 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 02, 2023, 03:55:10 am
Post by: jipehog on July 02, 2023, 04:47:44 am
Seeing some claims that Prigozhin is becoming Unpersoned by Russian state media.Russian state media has been recruited to preform the burning at the stake. But keep in mind that he is still alive.. the reason for it is likely because he wasn't acting alone, there are influential people behind him, same reason the outcast strelkov can talk so freely.
Post by: Starver on July 02, 2023, 04:23:26 pm
(not taken in bad taste, I hope)
Post by: martinuzz on July 03, 2023, 02:43:16 am
This is not a guesstimate, this is the number given by Russia itself, boasting proudly that they 'rescued' 700000 children from the conflict zone.
According to Russia, the program to bring Ukrainian children to Russia is only to protect orphans and abandoned children.
Ukraine says it is illegal deportation.
According to the USA, thousands of children were taken from their homes with force.
That's gonna be a helluva job after the war, finding back all those children. I guess the only way is mandatory genetic testing for all Russian children and parents, to see if they match, and if not, find out if they still have familiy in Ukraine and bring them back.
EDIT: The ICC is also investigating a Russian website that offers 300000 Ukranian children for adoption. The ICC says this is a war crime.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 03, 2023, 03:49:43 am
That's gonna be a helluva job after the war, finding back all those children. I guess the only way is mandatory genetic testing for all Russian children and parents, to see if they match, and if not, find out if they still have familiy in Ukraine and bring them back.
Not happening. If Russia will be stable enough for something like this - it won't agree to do it. If not - no one will do it in the midst of civil wars and separatist movements.
Demographically, Russia has already won this war with a huge score. It lost few 100K of men of various ages, most of which were capable of producing little to no GDP (or were outright antisocial elements) and got a huge amount of children to brainwash to mitigate its low birthrates
And I don't believe that there will be any justice whatsoever. Russia got away with every crime it did in its history, I can't see why this time will be different.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 03, 2023, 04:11:00 am
Post by: Eric Blank on July 03, 2023, 04:27:32 am
Post by: jipehog on July 03, 2023, 05:24:49 am
Demographically, Russia has already won this war with a huge score. It lost few 100K of men of various ages, most of which were capable of producing little to no GDP (or were outright antisocial elements) and got a huge amount of children to brainwash to mitigate its low birthratesIf so then it would be a huge strategic win, but I am not sure that it is. Certainly Russia is facing a population-decline, exacerbated by many young men dying on the front lines (weighted toward poorer minorities) and brain drain with many educated and well off choosing to emigrate. However, I doubt that Ukrainian kids will be sufficient to reverse that trend and I have misgiving about attempting at brainwashing not coming to bite you in the ass. We are talking about adopted kids with access to internet, many of whom are likely young adults, and or aren't likely to feel accepted in Russian society.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 03, 2023, 06:44:16 am
What proportion of those children are of parents who saw Russian occupation as the return to the fold, welcomed it, fought for it in the militias, and were killed by Ukrainians? Or who thought their kids would be safer or just better off deep in Mother Russia rather than growing up 20 km from the front line in a region with devastated economy, so sent them willingly as part of one relocation program or another? 10%? 50? 90?
Because those aren't growing up to want Ukrainian passports, internet access or not.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 03, 2023, 06:51:32 am
And yeah, "brainwashing" will probably backfire. They are failing to brainwash native Russian youth, a lot of teens and 20-ish people are against the war (because they spend time on Western internet), why would Ukrainian children be any easier to brainwash? It's mostly older people and elderly who get z-ombified.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 03, 2023, 07:29:25 am
There's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint. As if there was no pro-Russian sentiment in the occupied territories.
While it is true that a significant portion of those children was moved with parental consent and\or sincerely prefer Russia, the net effect is the same = those are children removed from the Ukrainian nation and moved to the Russian nation. And it is Russia who created the need to move by destroying their homes
Quote
They are failing to brainwash native Russian youth, a lot of teens and 20-ish people are against the war (because they spend time on Western internet), why would Ukrainian children be any easier to brainwash?By brainwashing I mean not raising in a dominant Russian ideology, I mean erasing national identity. I fail to see how children younger than 7 can keep anything but some distant traumatic memories. Even for preteens it isn't that easy.
Post by: jipehog on July 03, 2023, 07:49:23 am
There's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint. [..] Because those aren't growing up to want Ukrainian passports, internet access or notTrue, but then your double booking them along with those who choose to take passports. Also worth noting that Russia occupation authorities pressure people to take Russian passports by setting them as perquisite to gain access to basic public services, which is rather effective for families with younger kids.
Also there is plenty of dissatisfaction in Russia already, people are afraid or know its no use to voice their opinion, and I am not certain that all of these kids from pro-Russia side after loosing their families, friends, homes everything they ever knew will choose the state narrative forced upon them blaming Ukraine for this unnecessary war of aggression, teen rebellion FTW.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 03, 2023, 11:02:52 am
Fair enough. This country is fucked up.QuoteThey are failing to brainwash native Russian youth, a lot of teens and 20-ish people are against the war (because they spend time on Western internet), why would Ukrainian children be any easier to brainwash?By brainwashing I mean not raising in a dominant Russian ideology, I mean erasing national identity. I fail to see how children younger than 7 can keep anything but some distant traumatic memories. Even for preteens it isn't that easy.
Post by: bloop_bleep on July 03, 2023, 02:54:07 pm
There's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint.
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is. If not outright kidnapped then kept indefinitely after they were supposed to be home. Do you actually think these Russians are running some sort of usual summer camp?
https://youtu.be/RNAAC1kX5kE
Post by: Strongpoint on July 03, 2023, 03:21:15 pm
I made a mistake of reading comments under the video... Humanity is sickThere's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint.
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is. If not outright kidnapped then kept indefinitely after they were supposed to be home. Do you actually think these Russians are running some sort of usual summer camp?
https://youtu.be/RNAAC1kX5kE
Post by: Grim Portent on July 03, 2023, 04:50:40 pm
I made a mistake of reading comments under the video... Humanity is sick
I won't ask you to elaborate, I doubt it'd be good for my sanity.
Sadly I don't think there's going to be any real justice for the relocated kids. Some of them might manage to reconnect with their real family in future, modern communication techniques and genealogy tracking is good for that sort of thing, but my trust in Russia to provide anything even resembling an acceptable upbringing for a child, let alone a stolen child, is so low it's underground. Even the ones that turn out relatively well will probably have suffered myriad forms of neglect. I worry about how many are going to be sold to sex traffickers, or have their organs harvested.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 03, 2023, 06:37:54 pm
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is.You have two numbers here: 19,5k and 700k. The former is Ukraine's government's number for those they consider illegally deported. The latter is the number Moscow recently said they're hosting. You can see the disjoint here, right? The 700k would include all the nominally Ukrainian children that on the outbreak of the full-scale war went with their willing, pro-Russian mothers, to Russia. Which was by far in the top destinations for refugees from the start, remember? These children were not stolen - their families always wanted to be Russian, thought of themselves as Russian, welcomed Russia, and thought they'd be better off in Russia.
So, in the context of those numbers, taken at face value - no, that is almost entirely exactly not what it is.
Post by: bloop_bleep on July 03, 2023, 07:15:00 pm
I made a mistake of reading comments under the video... Humanity is sickThere's this assumption going on here that when the Russians say <a number> with regard to the children, all of those were stolen from their parents at gunpoint.
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is. If not outright kidnapped then kept indefinitely after they were supposed to be home. Do you actually think these Russians are running some sort of usual summer camp?
https://youtu.be/RNAAC1kX5kE
You should sort by Top, not by New.
Except, yes, that is almost entirely exactly what it is.You have two numbers here: 19,5k and 700k. The former is Ukraine's government's number for those they consider illegally deported. The latter is the number Moscow recently said they're hosting. You can see the disjoint here, right? The 700k would include all the nominally Ukrainian children that on the outbreak of the full-scale war went with their willing, pro-Russian mothers, to Russia. Which was by far in the top destinations for refugees from the start, remember? These children were not stolen - their families always wanted to be Russian, thought of themselves as Russian, welcomed Russia, and thought they'd be better off in Russia.
So, in the context of those numbers, taken at face value - no, that is almost entirely exactly not what it is.
The circumstance of Russia being the most popular destination for refugees from the eastern regions is a little undermined by the fact that Russia blocked and/or bombed humanitarian corridors to western Ukraine.
All this about supposed longing for unification with the Russian Motherland that people in the eastern regions supposedly always felt themselves to be part of (and the thread follows, have been stopped by Ukrainian nationalists) is manufactured by the Kremlin. Even before the invasion in full scale, which I will remind you decimated the popularity of any remaining Russia-favoring political currents, only 22 percent of the Luhansk oblast favored reunification with Russia in 2021. https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88542 This is despite Russia-favorable informational restrictions put in place by the occupation. After the full-scale invasion, support for Russia evaporated in these regions.
The 700000 number, it seems, comes from an official pronouncement of the Kremlin and is likely made up to cast an image of themselves as saviors of children because their positions of moral reasoning are different from ours. Whatever the reason for Ukrainian children being sent to Russian camps, to say it is just because all their parents thought of themselves as Russian all along, is demonstrably wrong and is a dangerous attitude to have.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 03, 2023, 07:25:50 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on July 03, 2023, 07:30:22 pm
I'm not saying it's 'just' for that reason. Neither have I said people in the east of Ukraine all wanted to be part of Russia. Don't be constructing strawmen here.
nominally Ukrainian children that on the outbreak of the full-scale war went with their willing, pro-Russian mothers, to Russia. Which was by far in the top destinations for refugees from the start, remember? These children were not stolen - their families always wanted to be Russian, thought of themselves as Russian, welcomed Russia, and thought they'd be better off in Russia. So, in the context of those numbers, taken at face value - no, that is almost entirely exactly not what it is.
No, you did say that most of the children leaving are leavig because their parents saw themselves as Russian.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 03, 2023, 08:06:44 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 03, 2023, 08:15:56 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on July 03, 2023, 08:19:52 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on July 03, 2023, 08:22:17 pm
1. Russia inflated their figure with people who moved to Russia because Russia, i.e. the invaders, blocked every direction but into their country.
2. This is counting people returning back to Russia for any given reason total, which probably includes a good chunk of their dipshit tourists who thought that a warzone would be a great vacation spot (and probably counts them multiple times as they go vacationing in a warzone, realizing this is a bad idea, coming back, then their sense of pattern recognition fails to kick in...)
3. The kremlin pulled the number wholesale out of their ass because...??? (small penis compensation, probably)
Regardless of outcome, it's the Russian figure so should be taken with a whole mine of salt, regardless of exactly which manner the number's been doctored and why.
Post by: Egan_BW on July 03, 2023, 08:34:40 pm
Post by: hector13 on July 03, 2023, 09:10:59 pm
There was an article on the BBC recently regarding Russians taking Ukrainian children into “care” even though they knew who and where their parents were. I’ll see if I can find it.
Edit: Article (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65641304).
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 04, 2023, 04:27:58 am
Post by: martinuzz on July 04, 2023, 04:36:29 am
The former is Ukraine's number they gave to the documentary maker well over half a year ago.
You have two numbers here: 19,5k and 700k.
The latter is the number given by the Russian government 2 days ago.
Can't compare the two they are from different timestamps.
In any case, the 19.5k is too low. The ICC is investigating just a single a website that offers 30k Ukrainian children for adoption.
Post by: King Zultan on July 04, 2023, 06:06:18 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 04, 2023, 07:43:32 am
Can't compare the two they are from different timestamps.Jesus, martinuzz. You can't compare them because they're not talking about the same thing. Was my point. If the 700k were the new number published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Reintegration, then you could say these were stolen, because that's what the concerned party would be claiming. As is, 700k is literally just a number, that you don't know what goes into. It could be counting anything or nothing, and there's plenty other children to count than only those illegally deported. It could have been made up on the spot even. Which is why you cant conflate it with the other number.
This is completely separate from whether the 19.5k has since grown or was grossly undervalued. It could have even grown to 700k, or more - but you don't know that. So don't say it like it's the truth until you do.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 04, 2023, 12:57:33 pm
*nervous giggling*
Post by: scriver on July 04, 2023, 01:00:11 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on July 04, 2023, 01:14:31 pm
Should I be getting iodine stocked?
Nah, Radioactive Iodine is stuff you get from a working nuclear reactor, those are inactive for quite some time. It shouldn't have relevant quantities, especially by the time needed for the wind to deliver it to you. (Not that it stopped Ukrainians buying that stuff, I expect quite few will poison themselves in panic)
Fun coincidence: local winds at the relevant heights are about to change from ones going to Crimea to ones going away from Russian controlled area (and just above my head, BTW). *more nervous giggling* At least there is no rain in the forecast for the next few days.
Post by: King Zultan on July 05, 2023, 02:17:40 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 05, 2023, 02:32:34 am
Wonder if this means we need to go to the fallout shelters or should we wait a few days?
Realistically speaking, the worst possible thing that can happen is up to ~100km radius exclusion zone, a lot of radioactive stuff in Dnipro and the Black Sea + some radioactive spots for ones who will lose the wind and rain roulette + slightly elevated background radiation rates over large areas.
It is actually what scares me the most, the planetary-wide effect will be minor enough for Russia to go for it. Most of the damage will be in Ukraine
_____________
And I think that what will likely happen is that Russia will make the station inoperable by blowing up all the machinery they can get causing minor (Fukushima level) leaks that will be exaggerated by Russian propaganda to increase panic in Ukraine
On the other hand, they may be crazy enough to make holes in the reactors or even blow up the spent fuel storage.
Post by: Lidku on July 06, 2023, 11:10:33 pm
Utterly bizarre.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 07, 2023, 01:58:39 am
Post by: King Zultan on July 07, 2023, 04:49:57 am
The hysteria around cluster munitions that are about to be provided to Ukraine disgusts me so much. It is like a religious behavior - our holy texts say that cluster munitions are bad and we'll ignore all circumstances and just scream how bad it is hinting that Ukraine is just as evil as RussiaSome people can't see past their limited world views, so they think everything that doesn't fit into it must be bad.
Post by: The_Explorer on July 07, 2023, 01:52:32 pm
When that happens, my stance will be everyone is a piece of cr*p in this war and I won't support anyone any longer. But I doubt ukraine is gonna start doing that, its just in that hypothetical situation. To me, a war shouldn't escalate to where innocents die like russia has been doing against ukranians, but it doesn't make it right if both sides start doing it. Would come off very hypocritical to defend that and just an echo chamber if anyone thinks thats ok because one side does it now everyone can.
With that said, outside of this echo chamber of a forum section (it is a bit echoey chamber, even though I agree with most of it, some questionable opinions here so I avoid most of this section most of the time), most people outside here don't agree with it and agree overall with the national news (AU news, BBC etc) that it leads to a potential catastrophe for innocent lives more than already going on and escalates the war. But most also agree with my view point that as long as ukraine doesn't PURPOSELY indiscriminately start killing innocents, then its not much an issue currently. And so far it hasn't been an issue since apparently ukraine has already been using them already and has done their best to avoid any situation like that. Its only if they start purposely doing it, like russia is where I would be 100% against that, like most rational people.
With that said, I don't really like that US is starting to seemingly get desperate and doing russian-like tactics by sending ukraine the same weapons pretty much russia uses...but again, as long as innocents aren't targeted like russia does, its not really an issue.
So while I sound a bit back and forth with this, I lean more toward doing the best to avoid innocent lives by NOT supplying weapons that are banned in most countries. There is a good reason they are banned in over 100 countries after all. But then its not really an issue if used properly, but the thing is, they aren't usually used properly when things get desperate.
Then there is my own side opinion but not really one I'd want cause I want to live...but one that wants everything to keep escalating. If the war escalates enough, maybe the world will get nuked and all the human damage will eventually go away after 100s of thousands/millions of years, but what effects of a nuclear war would have on earth, I doubt scientists really know and we'd all be gone anyway so no one would know. But earth would be better without humans lol. Do more damage to the planet than any other species. I have a feeling this is what some really want but don't say it out loud. And there you go, my own questionable opinion lol
Post by: Strongpoint on July 07, 2023, 02:59:06 pm
Quote
With that said, I don't really like that US is starting to seemingly get desperate and doing russian-like tactics by sending ukraine the same weapons pretty much russia usesYep! Bows and arrows would be a better, eco-friendly choice. And Russia doesn't use those!
The only thing that truly matters is that cluster munitions are really effective for the task of breaking through extensive trench lines, something Ukraine has to do.
Post by: Random_Dragon on July 07, 2023, 03:05:17 pm
One tends to be more prudent about the risk of unexploded ordinance when it's your own backyard in danger of unanticipated remodeling, put simply.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 07, 2023, 04:34:30 pm
A major influence of the decision was 2006 Lebanon War in which Israel used cluster munitions extensively and unnecessarily. With many shells being old, they had like 25% unexploded bomblets.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 07, 2023, 04:53:09 pm
So apparently Prigozhin is back in Russia?He's probably dead
Utterly bizarre.
Post by: The_Explorer on July 07, 2023, 05:52:21 pm
Something does need to break the front lines though, and if thats mostly where its used, not really a big deal. No civilians will be on the frontlines (willingly anyway)
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 07, 2023, 09:59:37 pm
The hysteria around cluster munitions that are about to be provided to Ukraine disgusts me so much. It is like a religious behavior - our holy texts say that cluster munitions are bad and we'll ignore all circumstances and just scream how bad it is hinting that Ukraine is just as evil as RussiaReminds me of the Ukrainian defence minister complaining about their German partners willing to give them medical equipment to save those being shot but have moral qualms about helping them stop getting shot
Post by: King Zultan on July 08, 2023, 03:54:45 am
Makes me wonder if they're gonna preserve the corpse and make it into a puppet they can make dance around.So apparently Prigozhin is back in Russia?He's probably dead
Utterly bizarre.
Post by: Lidku on July 08, 2023, 04:14:37 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 08, 2023, 04:26:45 am
Post by: da_nang on July 08, 2023, 04:54:23 am
The good news is these 10-km-deep defensive lines take a lot of time to setup. Once through, there won't be many places to which the Russians can fall back.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 08, 2023, 05:06:41 am
Is the Ukrainian offensive succeeding? Or has it been rebuffed by Russia?
Currently, there are two major axes of offense - Through the heavily fortified Zaporizhzhia front and an attempt to encircle Russians in the ruins of Bakhmut, both proceed at a slow pace of a few hundred meters per week. It is accompanied by a campaign of striking Russian logistics inside occupied territories(British cruise missiles, Storm Shadows are VERY useful in this role).
It is believed that roughly 2/3 of new brigades stay in reserve for whatever next stage of the offensive will be.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 08, 2023, 12:51:20 pm
The Russian Army and Auxillaries are called Zombies for a reason. You don't get to leave just because you're dead.Makes me wonder if they're gonna preserve the corpse and make it into a puppet they can make dance around.So apparently Prigozhin is back in Russia?He's probably dead
Utterly bizarre.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 10, 2023, 08:10:11 am
Russia claims Wagner boss met with Putin and gave Putin his full support. Yeah, they're using his dead body to bolster their position.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 10, 2023, 01:03:19 pm
I so want it to be true and I so want it to be our guys who will work in Mossad style all over Russia, bringing justice directly to those who deserve it. The list is freaking long. I didn't even want many dead. I want just enough to make those naval officers, those combat pilots, those ballistic missile operators and others live in constant fear.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 10, 2023, 01:29:00 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on July 10, 2023, 03:01:36 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on July 10, 2023, 03:52:12 pm
I am curious about what kind of protection is planned. Our anrtiair defense is not that good.
Post by: martinuzz on July 10, 2023, 08:22:06 pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66160319
Post by: EuchreJack on July 10, 2023, 08:46:17 pm
Erdogan agreed to let Sweden join NATO. He will now take it to Turkish parliament.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66160319
I think I found out what Sweden is going to give Turkey in exchange:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/07/07/cyprus-tomb-artifacts-discovered/70392427007/ (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/07/07/cyprus-tomb-artifacts-discovered/70392427007/)
Sweden found artifacts in Cyprus.
Post by: hector13 on July 10, 2023, 10:03:58 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 10, 2023, 10:26:14 pm
There are unconfirmed reports (mostly from Russian Telegram channels) that a captain of a Russian submarine was shot dead during his morning jog. That submarine fired cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities.L rip bozo
I so want it to be true and I so want it to be our guys who will work in Mossad style all over Russia, bringing justice directly to those who deserve it. The list is freaking long. I didn't even want many dead. I want just enough to make those naval officers, those combat pilots, those ballistic missile operators and others live in constant fear.
Post by: Eric Blank on July 10, 2023, 11:29:34 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 11, 2023, 01:59:28 am
Related: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66154909.amp (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66154909.amp)It's so much easier to make your puppets dance when they're dead and can't resist or talk back.
Russia claims Wagner boss met with Putin and gave Putin his full support. Yeah, they're using his dead body to bolster their position.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 11, 2023, 08:01:32 am
Post by: Cathar on July 11, 2023, 08:58:40 am
His photos give a strong "spongebob visits sandy" vibe.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 12, 2023, 12:47:57 pm
I heard much worse stories than those, but at least something is being documented and going official.
Post by: Cathar on July 12, 2023, 12:54:12 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on July 12, 2023, 01:30:59 pm
I have heard similar stories on the Russian army in general, being an actual rape culture, where forced sex is used routinely as a mean to enforce hierarchies. Although I initially dismissed that as war propaganda, I did also encountered actual russians who went to great lenght that system. "It's not gay if neither parties enjoy it" may be one of the sentences that convinced me that Russia as a country should be dismantled.
It is Russian prison culture* that infected everything in Russia. Especially army. Even kindergarten children know who "petuh" (a man fucked by another man) is and that this person is not a person at all, even if he was raped.
It is also why homophobia is so damn strong in Russia and this kind of homophobia is way worse than one coming from religions or basic "eeeew" emotions of straight men.
*also, even that culture degraded. For example, pedophiles would live days in a Soviet prison, not so true in modern Russian criminal world
Post by: Cathar on July 12, 2023, 04:05:48 pm
But yeah that's based and trad rasha, it's the west that is degenerate, I've been told.
Post by: Frumple on July 12, 2023, 04:26:03 pm
... actually referring to the behavior as based and traditional is something new, though. I don't think I've ever encountered any group of any sort that holds that kind of behavior being common as somehow a desirable state of society.
* I could swear I've actually seen some kind of psychology studies that even sorta' support the sentiment, if you squint real hard. Rape often isn't an act that has much or anything to do with sexual or romantic attraction, so it's possible to not be gay in one sense (being attracted to men) while still raping men. It's... somewhat horseshit from a practical or general usage perspective, but still.
Post by: Cathar on July 12, 2023, 04:41:07 pm
It comes up in the worst parts of male dominated spaces (or, more generally, cultures which encourage rape or dubious consent on some level... which is unfortunately most of them :-\)I've been in and out male segregated spaces since 2014 and that is not my experience at all. If anything, these groups tend to be much healthier than mixed groups - but mileage may vary. Men usually stop thinking with their bottom brain when women are out, rather than the opposite.
You need constant reinforcement to push men to hump each other against the will of everyone involved. That is not something that happens naturally, it has to be pushed from above.
With that said, all the informations I have come from politically involved russians I could chat with, they may not be your typical man of the street, but yes, they would defend a literal rape culture as based and trad, and assert without blinking that they hate homosexual so much they have sex with men, it is completely schizophrenic.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 12, 2023, 04:45:01 pm
* I could swear I've actually seen some kind of psychology studies that even sorta' support the sentiment, if you squint real hard.Yeah, it's the MSM designation - Men who have sex with men. Differentiating the activity from sexual attraction or identity.
Post by: martinuzz on July 13, 2023, 03:26:38 am
"The US and it's NATO allies are creating the risk of a direct military confontation with Russia with catastrophic consequences".
Post by: King Zultan on July 13, 2023, 04:13:07 am
Also it doesn't surprise me that they rape each other.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 13, 2023, 04:15:59 am
Russian Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov got Storm Shadowed in occupied Berdyansk. We had no dead Russian generals for quite some time.
Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleg_Tsokov
In November 2010, the Investigative Committee of Russia charged Tsokov with committing fraud and abuse of power during his period in command of the 228th Regiment. The case involved a deal in which he illegally promised eleven conscripts early demobilization in return for signing service contracts, then embezzled 80,000 rubles from the soldiers' contract signing bonuses.
This case did not affect his career (LOL) and in 2011 Tsokov was transferred to serve as chief of staff and deputy commander of the 33rd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade of the 49th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District, based at Maykop.
Ukraine is very lucky Putin encouraged the total rot of its own army
Quote from: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16386
Russian Colonel Alexander Denisov - in charge of providing technical support for the armored vehicles of the Russian Southern Military District - was arrested in March and charged with stealing seven V-92S2 engines from T-90 battle tanks entrusted to his care, according to Moscow’s ‘Kommersant’ newspaper.At this rate Ukraine should probably avoid targeting General Oligarskies and Major Kleptovskies
Commentators have been reporting for decades that corruption was endemic within its defense industrial sector and armed forces, at every level from the Kremlin down to the lowliest foot soldier.
A 2005 report by the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment quoted reports from the Russian Audit Chamber Chairman that in the pre-Putin days as much as 21 percent of the military budget was lost, mainly by the theft of equipment. After Putin took over it was estimated that as much as 50 percent of the funds allocated to Russia’s Defense budget was simply stolen.
Ruslan Pukhov of the Moscow-based Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology gave the example that in 2004 Russian foreign defense sales raised approximately $5.5 billion of which, he estimated less than 20 percent made its way back into the budget.
Notable cases of Russian corruption were seen throughout the 1990s, including the Russian general dismissed for selling UN fuel while deployed to Kosovo and reports of Russian soldiers deployed to Chechnya selling their weapons to Chechen fighters.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 13, 2023, 06:00:17 am
Heh, more of this, please.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 13, 2023, 11:03:37 am
Russian major general says he was dismissed after reporting on army problems (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/13/7411082/)The General that just died was in the same unit.
Heh, more of this, please.
He probably wanted out of the unit that just lost it's other commanding officer to a missile attack.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 13, 2023, 11:49:51 am
Russian major general says he was dismissed after reporting on army problems (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/07/13/7411082/)I reas that half asleep and misread dismissed as circumcised
Heh, more of this, please.
Post by: martinuzz on July 13, 2023, 12:52:52 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on July 14, 2023, 10:46:50 am
They have been running out of money for over a year now. They've been using closed markets and other tricks to artificially inflate the ruble and hide the problem, but they're running out of tricks.
It is sad that, unlike Russian generals, people in charge of the Russian economy are actually fairly competent and aren't under the direct control of Putin.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 14, 2023, 01:33:16 pm
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/14/politics/house-ndaa-vote-amendments/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/14/politics/house-ndaa-vote-amendments/index.html)
In related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 15, 2023, 02:03:46 am
This bill now proceeds to the Senate, and the Senate does not have to just do an up or down vote on what the House gives them. They can alter the bill as much as they want, it just doesn't go to the President until after both houses of Congress have passed the same version. More importantly, a bill that comes from the Senate, even one that originated in the House, is not vulnerable to the same sort of procedural shenanigans that a bill originating in the House is. Forcing a simple up-down vote on the Senate version is trivial, and an otherwise identical bill without MTG's amendments will be very popular on both sides of the aisle. Note that the Senate is not only Dem majority (if only just), a fair chunk of the GOP senators are from the wing of the party that isn't deeply invested in the Culture War (which is an explicit reason why Senate terms are so long - insulation from random political fads) and aren't likely to want to jeopardize the military in order to please the nutty obsession of the week.
What's going to happen is that the bill will go to the Senate, all of the stupid amendments will get stripped out, then it will go back to the House and get rubberstamped in the Senate form.
Post by: King Zultan on July 15, 2023, 03:57:39 am
In related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...You'd think people in the US would be able to sniff out a Russian agent before it could even do anything, guess that means they've gone soft on the whole Russia hate thing since the USSR fell.
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
Post by: Ziusudra on July 15, 2023, 02:51:08 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on July 15, 2023, 04:18:53 pm
They really haveIn related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...You'd think people in the US would be able to sniff out a Russian agent before it could even do anything, guess that means they've gone soft on the whole Russia hate thing since the USSR fell.
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
Extreme Right sees more solidarity with Russia than with their own country. They're also funded by Russia...
Post by: King Zultan on July 16, 2023, 05:03:15 am
It's like they've forgotten the faces of their fathers.They really haveIn related news, GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia is confirmed to be a Deep Cover Russian Agent...You'd think people in the US would be able to sniff out a Russian agent before it could even do anything, guess that means they've gone soft on the whole Russia hate thing since the USSR fell.
She's a traitor to Both Georgias.
Extreme Right sees more solidarity with Russia than with their own country. They're also funded by Russia...
Post by: MorleyDev on July 16, 2023, 09:35:32 am
Modern Russia is essentially what the Far Right want to turn their country into.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 16, 2023, 10:45:14 pm
I hope those "brilliant" Russians who went to Crimea for a vacation will enjoy the road home.
Post by: Telgin on July 16, 2023, 11:22:31 pm
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 16, 2023, 11:54:17 pm
Does the Crimean Bridge just provide a link from Crimea to Russia, or are there other major ways in and out of Crimea? Presumably those just link to Ukrainian territory?Not really about reinforcements, more important for disrupting Russian ability to resupply its own forces with ammunition/shells/barrels/water/food/fuel and all the other usual gubbins needed to sustain military action. The Crimean bridge is vitally important to disrupt as much as possible because trucks carrying supplies to the Crimean peninsula can then offload their supplies to Crimean supply depots. These depots can then transport supplies to Melitopol/Zaporozhia/Mariupol through the railway bridge on the Syvash (a vast shallow-water area which is a logistic nightmare to traverse) which the Ukrainians have also been sabotaging with missiles and saboteurs.
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
This forces Russia to use railway lines on the Rostov-Donetsk axis (which are in range of Ukrainian artillery), roads (which have lower transport volumes or have to take wide detours to avoid artillery/drone fire) or transport by port in Mariupol or Berdyansk (vulnerable adverse weather conditions and to port strikes, which the Ukrainians have also been conducting). All of which results in lower volumes of war materiel front line russians can use to shoot at Ukrainians, which greatly increases Russian attrition and makes the chance of forcing Russian withdrawal much greater. This is similar to what the Ukrainian army did in Kherson. They continually attacked despite heavy casualties, forcing the Russians to use up their stockpiles of ammunition. They destroyed the bridges behind them, so they could not restock on ammunition. Eventually their shortages became too dangerous to sustain and were forced to withdraw
Post by: Strongpoint on July 17, 2023, 12:12:33 am
Does the Crimean Bridge just provide a link from Crimea to Russia, or are there other major ways in and out of Crimea? Presumably those just link to Ukrainian territory?This forces Russia to use railway lines on the Rostov-Donetsk axis (which are in range of Ukrainian artillery), roads (which have lower transport volumes or have to take wide detours to avoid artillery/drone fire) or transport by port in Mariupol or Berdyansk (vulnerable adverse weather conditions and to port strikes, which the Ukrainians have also been conducting).
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
And all of this is not merely a longer and less safe way to supply the Southern front, it is already heavily used to supply the Eastern front.
Post by: Starver on July 17, 2023, 01:46:43 am
Quote from: head Russian administrator for Crimea
Measures are being taken to restore the situation. I ask residents and guests of the peninsula to refrain from traveling through the Crimean bridge and, for security reasons, choose an alternative land route through new regions.
Civvies are going to have to route past battle damage (if not that bridge, once sufficiently patched up again, the areas where the original Russian attacks might not yet have been "sanitised away" and Ukrainian attacks are now the threat of the moment). Anyone somehow blissfully unaware of the encroaching warzone (after arriving to have summer frolics on whatever beaches aren't actually hedgehogged up to the armpits) is going to be made more aware.
Various reports I've seen (all ultimately quoting Russia's ztatements, so add NaCl to the mix, even without the following confusion of details) also suggest there were two deaths. Either the parents of a young child or two people, including a young child. Some personal and (certainly) collateral civilian casualties, of course, if true. And possibly creating an orphan/at least one grieving parent (depending upon the accurate and true circumstances). That said, I expect Moscow to make disproportionately more fuss about it than the many other examples (that they caused). I'm going to feel unhappy about those involved, but be reasonably content that it's just wrong-place-wrong-time reasons, without specific (or general) intent to cause such distress.
I've actually yet to see hard and fast news on whether or not it was both rail and road (and how it might affect each carriageway at that point, if it's still has two somewhat separate at that point in the crossing). If it is just limited, it might just be the(/a) roadway, under the reported circumstances. But it offers the chance to have limited the rail too (or have yet another go, shortly, and do so properly).
Tempted to quote from either Rocky IV or Predator, as my immediately obvious cultural regerences, but I'll refrain for now.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 17, 2023, 03:45:58 am
Post by: Cathar on July 17, 2023, 09:09:58 am
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge.The bridge has more than strategic value. It's a wargoal. It is has high as your scale will allows for.
There is only two way you can link Crimea to Russia : by the crimean bridge, and by the landbridge the war is fought for.
The problem with the landbridge : it spans over 4 oblasts, which are the oblasts Russia asks Ukraine to surrender. The bridge is a wargoal because Crimea cannot survive without drinking water, which was given by the canal fed by the Kherson Dam, which was at first cut by Ukraine, then blew up by Russia.
Now, after the destruction of the dam, if they stop the water trucks from reaching the peninsula, it will first start to desertify then people will die.
(This is also why by blowing up the dam, Russia did not earn more time, but instead put a hard timer on their whole operation)
On the strategic map, hitting the bridge is hard and recquire specific, very expensive ammunitions and a lot of preparation, as opposed to the landbridge which is 100% in artillery range. Move food and ammo through Lugansk Donetsk Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and St Himars will take a statistical toll on them.
Keeping the crimean bridge out of service is extremely stingy and cannot be ignored at all.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 17, 2023, 09:17:12 am
Post by: Cathar on July 17, 2023, 09:22:33 am
Edit : I feel like I need to insist on the fact this is one of the main reason the war is fought
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 17, 2023, 09:32:13 am
Post by: Cathar on July 17, 2023, 09:39:59 am
It's one thing to say Crimea needs water for its agriculture and industry, another to insist that people will start dying of thirst. It ain't a bloody desert.
But that is exactly what I'm saying (people are more likely to leave than to die, but surviving without water might be life in hard mode). Just google it. Agriculture is just offed and the peninsula is desertifying since the annexion. Civilians are rationing water since 2020. They are not dying of thirst, but then again, the bridge was functionning until now.
This quickly googled article (https://www.eurasiareview.com/16042020-the-water-crisis-in-crimea-analysis/)states that Crimea has underground reserves, but those reserves are emptying. Crimea do not have a steady stream of drinking water outside of the Kherson canal, and that canal is dead until the end of the war. Hot tears and appeals to humanity to Kyiv are now totally moot since bar the reconstruction of the dam, the canal cannot physically be put online again.
The landbridge is in artillery range and the crimea bridge is out of commission, which means you'll have to buy your drinking water with blood until that situation is remedied.
Busting that bridge is huge, and will produce results as long as it remains busted. By the same account you'll see russia sign ruby on nail every bill it can to get the bridge back online asap.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 17, 2023, 10:12:09 am
Post by: EuchreJack on July 17, 2023, 10:46:35 am
It's one thing to say Crimea needs water for its agriculture and industry, another to insist that people will start dying of thirst. It ain't a bloody desert.But it's Russian-occupied.
You know they'll prioritize the water for industry and agriculture, sacrificing the civilians for any profit they can get.
Nobody's fault but Russia.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 17, 2023, 10:50:07 am
Post by: scriver on July 17, 2023, 10:51:04 am
The water problem in Crimea is very exaggerated, local sources are enough to cover basic drinking water needs. Agriculture and industry will suffer as they did during 2014-2022 but people won't start dying of thirst.
Iirc Crimea has enough water to provide for its population, or for its agriculture, but not both, unless the additional wafer is supplied. And if I remember correctly there was already one draught in the pre-2022-invasion times (2018 was a terrible draught here, was it that year maybe?) where they showed they already prefer to ration the industry over the populace.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 17, 2023, 11:34:56 am
In the short term, there will be no major water problems there. X more years without water from the channel will likely cause an ecological disaster (or rather return to the natural pre-1950s climate of semi-desert for Northern Crimea)
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 17, 2023, 09:57:50 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 18, 2023, 03:08:45 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 19, 2023, 10:50:47 am
Will Russia dare to attack non-Ukrainian civilian ships? I think it will.
Will the world swallow what is essentially an act of piracy? Yeah, it will. I am 99.9% sure of that.
Post by: Random_Dragon on July 19, 2023, 11:24:37 am
Spoiler: meme (click to show/hide)
Post by: EuchreJack on July 19, 2023, 12:47:40 pm
Now, if they "accidentally" sink a Somali Freighter, who gives a fuck? But what happens if they attempt to interfere with a British vessel?
I expect naval mines and shore bombardment, since it avoids naval battles.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 19, 2023, 02:01:59 pm
What if some "Bermudian" tanker carrying Russian oil will mysteriously go boom?
Post by: bloop_bleep on July 19, 2023, 02:32:01 pm
It is also a game that two can play. Ukraine proved that we have rather successful naval drones. They managed to damage the Kerch Bridge, a rather well-protected target.
What if some "Bermudian" tanker carrying Russian oil will mysteriously go boom?
That may be problematic for international standing.
Post by: Madman198237 on July 19, 2023, 11:25:10 pm
It is also a game that two can play. Ukraine proved that we have rather successful naval drones. They managed to damage the Kerch Bridge, a rather well-protected target.If Ukraine starts destroying vessels under foreign flags you lose. There's no way it doesn't end international support. Russia is playing with nuclear fire by suggesting that they will destroy any vessel making for Ukrainian ports; one shot and they're at war with NATO. There's not a snowball's chance in hell that a nation lets such a provocation go unanswered because doing so would leave EVERY SINGLE ONE of their ships at great risk.
What if some "Bermudian" tanker carrying Russian oil will mysteriously go boom?
Post by: Strongpoint on July 20, 2023, 12:37:29 am
Post by: King Zultan on July 20, 2023, 02:26:53 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 20, 2023, 07:42:19 am
As I said, two can play this game. If some of those vessels will go boom for no apparent reason, they were warned.
Post by: Jopax on July 20, 2023, 10:16:57 am
The solution is very simple tho, have NATO or any of the EU states, or hell any significant third party pledge to escort ships to ports to ensure critical goods like food make it to the global market. Hey presto, hopefully the russkies have some sense left and won't fire at ships that could drag someone with a bigger stick more meaningfully into the conflict (because you don't need to declare war to make them bleed as such, can you imagine Ukraine getting long range cruise weapons so it can keep the sealanes clear as it were?)
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 20, 2023, 09:42:34 pm
Russia announced it will consider all ships sailing in the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will as carriers of military cargo from July 20th onwards.Anyone flying over or sailing nearby a warzone should take heed that objects on radar may look like wartime targets; it's more unusual to keep commercial shipping open between two belligerents and their trading partners than it is to just keep this blockade. If this was like China trying to claim the SCS and establish illegal control over open waters during peacetime there might be more point in complaining, but as it is the illegality of Russian actions is moot when this is all in the context of an already illegal war. Despite the Russian government maintaining that this isn't a war, this is fairly standard stuff for a war. It may not be in Russia's strategic interest as like you say, shooting a 3rd party nation's ship is politically disastrous, but look at the Falklands war - another one of those wars that never was openly declared, where the UK warned any ship within a certain radius of the Falklands would potentially be considered a combatant vessel. Noticeabley, even Ukraine is now suggesting they will retaliate with the same measures:
Will Russia dare to attack non-Ukrainian civilian ships? I think it will.
Will the world swallow what is essentially an act of piracy? Yeah, it will. I am 99.9% sure of that.
Quote from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/20/russia-may-attack-civilian-ships-in-black-sea-and-blame-ukraine-us-warns
The defence ministry in Kyiv issued a statement saying that from midnight on Thursday, all shipping plying Russian-held ports “may be considered by Ukraine as such carrying military cargo with all the associated risks”. The announcement mirrored a threat from Moscow on Wednesday against all ships using Ukrainian ports.While we haven't seen a war involving commerce raiding since WWII, we have seen three blockades in modern times. UK-Argentina, Falklands war and Iran-Iraq Gulf War, as well as the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar in 2017. In the former two both wars never saw an official declaration of any blockade, but did see this declaration of an "exclusion zone" where civilian ships were warned they could be mistaken for military ships, but it is in practice the same as a blockade. In terms of precedence, the Russians and Ukrainians are in the clear here
“The fate of the cruiser Moskva proves that the defence forces of Ukraine have the necessary means to repel Russian aggression at sea,” the ministry said, in a reference to the sinking of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet last year.
“Ukrainian-made maritime drones are capable of destroying stationary and moving targets anywhere in the Black Sea,” a Ukrainian interior ministry adviser, Anton Gerashchenko, said on Twitter.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 21, 2023, 08:47:17 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 21, 2023, 10:43:07 am
Post by: martinuzz on July 21, 2023, 02:56:06 pm
Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) was arrested today for "extremism". He had a great option of fleeing to Hague and getting a comfortable prison cell... Instead, he'll get a cell in a Russian prison or worse.Indeed he should have gone to the Hague. Free Playstation in your prison cell, play chess with Milosevic, Mladic and other mini-Hitlers all day, or at least with those that didn't die and decompose in their cells yet. Great times.
Post by: martinuzz on July 21, 2023, 02:58:21 pm
They have bombed so much grain now in Odessa, that a lot of extra Africans will die of hunger this year
UN warns that Russia cancelling the grain deal will lead to millions of deaths of hunger worldwide just this year...
EDIT: I will never forget. Back in the late '90s, when I was still in university, there where still pretty good academic relations with Russia. Quite a lot of Dutch students went to Russia for foreign student exchange projects. However, black people were strongly disadvised by university to go to Russia, and made to sign papers that the Dutch universities were not responisble if they were raped, tortured and/or killed in Russia if they decided to go there anyways despite of negative advise. The only thing they could tell them if they did go was "DON'T LEAVE UNIVERSITY CAMPUS. YOU WILL BE ASSUALTED BY EXTREME RIGHT PATROLS. POLICE WILL STAND THERE, POINT, AND LAUGH. Do not go to Russia if you are a person of colour."
Post by: Cathar on July 21, 2023, 03:41:56 pm
Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) was arrested today for "extremism". He had a great option of fleeing to Hague and getting a comfortable prison cell... Instead, he'll get a cell in a Russian prison or worse.
The war became 20% more boring... What will I do without his legendary shitposts ? The man who very publicly told Putin to "Shut up, just shut up" will be missed after his unforseen prison suicide.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 21, 2023, 11:25:51 pm
Don't worry bros Putin is stepping up to fill the shitpost void (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/21/any-polish-aggression-on-belarus-is-attack-on-russia-putin-says) by claiming Poland will invade Belarus and Ukraine to revive the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/top-russian-official-says-poland-wants-to-seize-parts-of-ukraine)Igor Girkin (aka Strelkov) was arrested today for "extremism". He had a great option of fleeing to Hague and getting a comfortable prison cell... Instead, he'll get a cell in a Russian prison or worse.The war became 20% more boring... What will I do without his legendary shitposts ? The man who very publicly told Putin to "Shut up, just shut up" will be missed after his unforseen prison suicide.
Quote
“It is well known that they also dream of the Belarusian lands,” he said, also without providing any evidence.Source: i made it the fuck up
Post by: King Zultan on July 22, 2023, 02:27:38 am
Post by: Cathar on July 22, 2023, 02:30:14 am
Post by: Starver on July 22, 2023, 05:25:12 am
but also a cereal killer."Hello, is that The Hague? I'd like to report a joke-crime."...thatImayhavemademyself,justdidn'tonthisoccasion
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 22, 2023, 07:21:55 am
Don't worry bros Putin is stepping up to fill the shitpost void (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/21/any-polish-aggression-on-belarus-is-attack-on-russia-putin-says) by claiming Poland will invade Belarus and Ukraine to revive the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/11/top-russian-official-says-poland-wants-to-seize-parts-of-ukraine)This isn't ramping shit up. The narrative has been in play since day one of the invasion, if not earlier. It's 'well known' >in Russia<, because the propaganda has been hammering it in for so long that everyone has heard it by now.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 22, 2023, 11:48:33 pm
My favorite is that Poland is about to launch an invasion to reclaim Lviv and other pre-1939 territories
Post by: EuchreJack on July 23, 2023, 05:08:27 am
I like how it's even red like Frank's Hot Sauce in the memes as well.
To be perfectly fair, whenever other Europeans and Americans criticize, I think Ukraine can just look them straight in the eye and say "...and how many days have YOU been directly fighting a Conventional War this Millennium?"
Post by: martinuzz on July 24, 2023, 06:23:12 am
I guess Russia is either preparing for a long war (when those kids turn 18, 6 to 8 years from now), or preparing to use child soldiers.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 24, 2023, 06:56:34 am
I guess Russia is either preparing for a long war (when those kids turn 18, 6 to 8 years from now), or preparing to use child soldiers.There are other options. Most of what Russia says or does is information warfare. It's either/both aimed at the West to make them think what you wrote - that they are ready and willing to wage a protracted war - to undermine the support for continued military aid, or/and internally to consolidate the populace by hammering it in that they're waging an existential war and everybody's gotta do their part ('Military service guarantees citizenship. Do you want to know more?').
I dunno, it seems centralized. There is much more Poland in various nonsense pushed by Russian propaganda and trolls. There is nothing new but just more of it.Fair enough. Even Lukashenka chimed in, rattling his Wagner sabre. Possibly to do with the approaching Polish parliamentary elections.
My favorite is that Poland is about to launch an invasion to reclaim Lviv and other pre-1939 territories
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 24, 2023, 12:31:25 pm
According to British intelligence services, starting after this year's summer vacation, Russian children between age 10 and 12 will learn how to fly military drones, how to handle guns and how to handle grenades in school.Russia has had military preparedness lessons in schools for years. This is where the famous videos of kids learning how to quickly assemble AK-47s comes from. They've just updated the curriculum.
I guess Russia is either preparing for a long war (when those kids turn 18, 6 to 8 years from now), or preparing to use child soldiers.
It's not substantially different from the mandatory military training some countries have, and frankly, if certain countries had had this over the last couple decades, the Ukraine war would look very different.
Post by: martinuzz on July 25, 2023, 01:58:23 pm
According to the US government, they did not send him to Ukraine, he went there by himself.
The actual incident happened a few weeks ago, but was just released to the press.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 25, 2023, 06:02:35 pm
Trevor Reed, the American marine veteran that was released in a prisoner exchange with Russia last year (he was exchanged for a Russian jet pilot that was convicted for cocaine smuggling), stepped on a landmine in Ukraine and is being treated in a German hospital.They probably wanted to make sure he was going to live before they said anything.
According to the US government, they did not send him to Ukraine, he went there by himself.
The actual incident happened a few weeks ago, but was just released to the press.
Post by: KittyTac on July 26, 2023, 08:12:44 am
If I was president, I would order my goons to forge some "recently unearthed 19th-century letters" from him, where he admits to being a pedophile with multiple offenses. This "discovery" would then be publicized on live national TV.
I would then make a "shocked" statement about the "unexpectedness" of this, and use the incident as a pretense to ban all his books and confiscate them from all libraries, remove all mention of him from school and college curricula, take down websites dedicated to him and destroy any memorabilia related to him currently residing in museums.
Fuck that cunt. He helped fuck Russia up. He is at fault for what this dogshit country is doing now. Brothers Karamazov is Putin's favorite book for a reason, it's basically his ideology 1 for 1. I would be thorough and put as much effort into the forgery as possible. I would make sure he is remembered hundreds of years in the future as "that Russian writer who was a pedo". I'm not doing this out of spite. I'm doing this because I see how harmful writers like him are to society even after their death. I want things to get better, and sometimes to do that, you know, you need cloak-and-dagger stuff.
Post by: Cathar on July 26, 2023, 08:29:01 am
I hate Dostoevsky so much.
You have no idea how much I agree with you. Brother Karamazov made me want to puke until I decided to drop the book. It is a heap of garbage that presents a crew of evil, morally repugnant characters and then you feel the spirit of the author breathing down your neck "aren't we all like that deep down ?".
Hell no. Normal people don't want to kill their father to bang a whore. Becoming a slave is not the pinacle of spiritual enlightenment. Not believing is magic is not a source of morale confusion. There's something deeply wrong with Dostoeivsky and I'm happy I'm not the only one to point it out.
It's even worse when you consider that his "Karamazov brothers" are an essay on the "russian soul".
Post by: KittyTac on July 26, 2023, 08:33:41 am
The messaging in his books is absolutely gross and I say this as an (extremely tenuous, but still) christian. I was mostly focusing on what his effects on Russian society were, but yeah the books themselves are terrible too. War and Peace is boring as shit but every single one of Dostoevsky's books is three times worse. I walked back on hating all classic Russian authors, Tolstoy was an alright person, but the books are overhyped trash. After Pushkin it was only downhill until Bakunin finally wrote ones that aren't monumental obelisks to boredom.I hate Dostoevsky so much.
You have no idea how much I agree with you. Brother Karamazov made me want to puke until I decided to drop the book. It is a heap of garbage that presents a crew of evil, morally repugnant characters and then you feel the spirit of the author breathing down your neck "aren't we all like that deep down ?".
Hell no. Normal people don't want to kill their father to bang a whore. Becoming a slave is not the pinacle of spiritual enlightenment. Not believing is magic is not a source of morale confusion. There's something deeply wrong with Dostoeivsky and I'm happy I'm not the only one to point it out.
It's even worse when you consider that his "Karamazov brothers" are an essay on the "russian soul".
Post by: Cathar on July 26, 2023, 08:43:51 am
You'd think a world renowed author would have some intellectual honesty in his writing, but in the end, Dostoievsky is 19th century russia's ben shapiro.
It's okay to be christian. Victor Hugo is my boy, his christianism is not obnoxious and pushes his characters to become better persons. Dostoeivsky's christianism makes them slaves and murderers
I do recommend Gorki if you havnt read him though. One of my favourite authors.
Post by: KittyTac on July 26, 2023, 08:55:13 am
I do recommend Gorki if you havnt read him though. One of my favourite authors.I just, don't really read my country's classic stuff anymore. Can't see myself spending time on it when I am chewing through other countries and other genres I like more.
Post by: WealthyRadish on July 26, 2023, 09:06:56 am
Brothers Karamazov is Putin's favorite book for a reason, it's basically his ideology 1 for 1.
In concrete terms I can sort of see a connection between "western satanism" and Ivan's Inquisitor poem, but that's about it.
I consider Dostoevsky's spiritualism to be completely invalidated by history and reality, but it isn't the current Russian government's cynical use of religion as political pretext that invalidates it. (Tangentially I think the ideological significance of his work is rescued from irrelevance somewhat by his interesting perspective as a former radical rather than a simple reactionary, even if the ideological content itself is pretty worthless.)
The connection between Dostoevsky's rejection of foreign influence and the modern regime is stronger, but again, it's just the government cynically finding something external to justify their position after the decision has already been made (one particular clique of oligarchs/bureaucrats or another didn't decide that Russia needs to be opposed to American hegemony based on anything Dostoevsky wrote).
Post by: KittyTac on July 26, 2023, 09:26:40 am
Post by: WealthyRadish on July 26, 2023, 10:30:55 am
Here's the thing: not-really-coherent reactionary rhetoric is his ideology. And the book is propaganda for it.
I agree on both counts (regardless of which "he" we're talking about), and that does reflect badly on the work itself. I think Dostoevsky sincerely believed in what he outlined in his books, but what he outlined happened to reduce to incoherent reactionary rhetoric that contemporary and future oligarchs would find politically useful to distract from their ongoing crimes.
My main point of disagreement is that Putin himself, his lifestyle, his actions, and the grab-bag of other rhetoric he employs are definitely not compatible in substance with the monastic mysticism Dostoevsky always seemed to be pushing (or at least Dostoevsky himself likely wouldn't think they are compatible if he saw what's happened, even if in practice this ideology just ends up being another misdirection useful to the wealthy and powerful).
Calling it a "one-to-one" ideological mapping thus seems wrong to me in this sense. There's just no way the Yeltsin clique read Dostoevsky and thought "yes, finally, this is the ideological blueprint for our future Russian kleptocracy". It was just pulled out of a cupboard after the fact when it was found useful.
Post by: KittyTac on July 26, 2023, 10:41:52 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 27, 2023, 08:40:26 am
It is a very minor event but I can't express how disgusted I feel.
Post by: hector13 on July 27, 2023, 08:52:42 am
The Russian staying on the strip for an hour attempting to get the result reversed was quite the dick move though.
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 27, 2023, 08:55:09 am
That’s a rule of the International Fencing Federation, the participants need to shake hands or the bout doesn’t finish, and a black card is given resulting in the DQ.The rules also clearly state that, in the event a player is disqualified for breaking the rules, the rule-abiding opponent will be advanced, so it's not unreasonable. I think they just didn't really have a plan for what would happen if someone is disqualified after winning.
The Russian staying on the strip for an hour attempting to get the result reversed was quite the dick move though.
Post by: hector13 on July 27, 2023, 08:59:38 am
It didn’t come out of the blue, so organizers could and should have considered doing something about it long before the bout happened.
Edit: BBC article (https://www.bbc.com/sport/fencing/66322668) on the matter. The Russian opponent, at least according to an adviser to Zelensky, was pictured with a Russian soldier.
Another Ukrainian in the tournament evidently refused to fight his Russian opponent by not showing up for the start of the bout.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 27, 2023, 12:28:13 pm
Post by: Eric Blank on July 27, 2023, 04:13:45 pm
I can absolutely understand hatred; I have a brother who has always been nothing but an abuser to me. But I've always been forced to behave, too.
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 27, 2023, 04:23:15 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 28, 2023, 03:26:46 am
Quote
The 32-year-old rejected Smirnova's handshake afterwards, instead offering her sabre to tap blades.Ukrainian athlete was willing to respect her Russian opponent, just not willing to shake hands. As shaking hands is a symbol of friendship and trust, and such a thing naturally is difficult when athletes are representing their nations and one has been persecuted by the other, it should have been fine for the Ukrainian and Russian fencers to tap blades in lieue of a handshake. This is especially true given that things like saluting are universal fencing custom with a long tradition, and both fencers observed the custom. Whereas handshakes are followed in some pistes and are things fencers like to do, but not every fencer will do. In some tournaments I've seen or partaken, some fencers did shake hands afterwards, whilst others just tapped blades, touched elbows or complimented the other fencer verbally on a good bout.
It led to an appeal from Smirnova, who staged a 45-minute sit-down protest.
"My message today is that we Ukrainian athletes are ready to face Russians on the sports field but we will never shake hands with them," Kharlan said afterwards.
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has called upon sports federations to handle Ukrainian athletes and Russians competing as neutrals with "the necessary degree of sensitivity" following Kharlan's disqualification, adding: "We continue to stand in full solidarity with the Ukrainian athletes and the Olympic community of Ukraine."
Quote
In fencing, shaking hands is part of the rules of the sport and refusal to do so results in a black card and expulsion.
Though in this case it was part of the rules, it should also be noted that in the picture, the Russian fencer is offering her gloved hand to shake.
I don't know if this is true in Russian fencing, but in UK fencing (and culture in general) it is considered intentionally disrespectful to offer your gloved hand to shake. It is disappointing that this important detail is being neglected in news reporting. In every single instance I shook hands with a fencer, or saw fencers shaking hands (whether they were from Hong Kong, Hungary, France, Germany or Britain), we shook with our off-hands (usually left) or took the glove off first. Assuming I am not wrong about the culture of hand-shaking in Russia being similar to UK or French, it is reasonable to posit a deliberate provocation
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 28, 2023, 04:57:21 am
I smell a fish
Post by: Criptfeind on July 28, 2023, 05:27:09 am
I am 99% sure that none of what's happening is this random Russian fencer's fault anyway. She may well have family in Ukraine. People do need to compartmentalize.
According to the story I read (and has been mentioned here) the Russian fencer spent nearly an hour protesting it. So, yeah, sounds like it is her fault some.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2023, 06:42:54 am
Honestly, I would also expect competitors in a tournament to obey the rules of respect, no matter how awful their opponent or their opponents nation is. You should be able to beat their ass in a competition, treat them with more dignity than they deserve because of your superiority, and then gun them down mercilessly on the battlefield.
I will treat any Ukrainian athlete who will publicly shake hands with a Russian (unless this Russian is openly and actively anti-war but then they wouldn't be allowed to compete by Russian sports officials) as someone who shows immense disrespect to murdered and tortured people for what is essentially personal gain.
Especially if this Russian athlete has a brother who is currently a part of the invasion and shows support for the said brother's "just cause" on her Instagram
Post by: KittyTac on July 28, 2023, 06:45:24 am
Post by: Starver on July 28, 2023, 08:04:17 am
Post by: Cathar on July 28, 2023, 08:26:00 am
The ukrainian athlete made her choice knowing full well the ins and outs of her decision, which I respect as a political statement, and only works if she is, in fact, disqualified afterward.
Edit : Reading the comments above me, I might have misunderstood the account, gomen.
In other news, lot of gains in the south, breakthrough possible. In the east, russians forces are pushing hard also and managed to cross a river and establish a permanent foothold in UA territory.
On the map, it feels like both sides have switched to offensive so the situation might develop fast.
I am 99% sure that none of what's happening is this random Russian fencer's fault anyway. She may well have family in Ukraine. People do need to compartmentalize.
"It's not my fault" doesn't cut really it after Buccha, mass child kidnapping and the bombing from Odessa. At some point you need to actively distance yourself from what the government is doing in your name or be considered an accomplice to it, and that point has been crossed long ago.
Edit 2 : I don't remember her name, but a russian olympic swimmer threw her career away after the beggining of the war, throunghly denouncing not only the war, but also the government and the individual soldiers, promising to "sell [her] gold medals to get plowed by ukrainian dicks, one for one" and ended her video by saying the ukrainian salute. I believe she left russia.
Not everybody can be a hero, but maybe it's good to remember people who are. Can't find the video, will ask /pol/ later.
Edit 3 : Surovikin line breached near Robotyne. Possible collapse of the southern front to follow.
Post by: martinuzz on July 29, 2023, 03:21:36 am
Furthermore, the IOC has said that she will, even if she does not qualify, get a wildcard for participating at the next Olympic Games.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 29, 2023, 04:29:43 am
The world fencing organisation removed the handshake requirement. The Ukrainian fencer is still disqualified for that particular match, but for the rest, her suspension is undone. She is welcome to participate at the rest of the World Championship.Common sense and protest prevails
Furthermore, the IOC has said that she will, even if she does not qualify, get a wildcard for participating at the next Olympic Games.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 29, 2023, 09:24:55 am
Edit 3 : Surovikin line breached near Robotyne. Possible collapse of the southern front to follow.At this point this is wishful thinking. What you call 'Surovikin line breached' is reaching the first (of three at this section of the front) line of defence. After two months of heavy fighting. In one place.
The Russians don't seem to think the situation in the south is difficult enough to warrant not using their reserves to launch an offensive of their own in the north.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2023, 12:06:52 pm
(My wet dream is offensive into Russia from Sumy, right into the soft rear of those forces pushing on the Northern front but we all know it is politically impossible)
Post by: EuchreJack on July 29, 2023, 01:56:53 pm
(My wet dream is offensive into Russia from Sumy, right into the soft rear of those forces pushing on the Northern front but we all know it is politically impossible)
But Russian Dissidents could invade Russia, so not impossible.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 29, 2023, 02:07:47 pm
(My wet dream is offensive into Russia from Sumy, right into the soft rear of those forces pushing on the Northern front but we all know it is politically impossible)"Those are not Ukrainian army units pushing into Russia, those are Ukrainian-speaking Russian self-defence forces defending themselves from Russian aggression"
Just throw the Russian hybrid warfare book at Putin's head
Post by: martinuzz on August 02, 2023, 06:01:25 am
They interviewed 320 former prisoners of war that were held in various detention camps in the Cherson region. 43% of them reported having been tortured in the improvised prisons. Sexual violence was the most used form of torture, for both male and female prisoners.
36 prisoners reported the use of cattle prod electrical stun devices, applied to the genitals.
At least one prisoner was forced to watch as another one was being raped.
The report also states that part of the prisoners were not military, but civilian familiy members of military who were being punished for their familiy member being in the military.
With the men, it seems that the sexual torture is not just for pleasure and submission, but also to ensure that Ukrainian males will no longer be able to have children.
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 02, 2023, 07:26:25 am
The MJT (Mobile Justice Team), part of the ACAG (Atrocities Crimes Advisory Group) that was formed by the UK, US and EU to assist the Ukrainian justice department with persecuting warcrimes, reports that of all prisoners of war captured in the Cherson area, nearly half were subjected to torture and anal rape.It's at times like these I vomit remembering how many people I knew IRL who genuinely believed the most moral thing the West could do was disarm Ukraine so they would be forced to surrender to Russia
They interviewed 320 former prisoners of war that were held in various detention camps in the Cherson region. 43% of them reported having been tortured in the improvised prisons. Sexual violence was the most used form of torture, for both male and female prisoners.
36 prisoners reported the use of cattle prod electrical stun devices, applied to the genitals.
At least one prisoner was forced to watch as another one was being raped.
The report also states that part of the prisoners were not military, but civilian familiy members of military who were being punished for their familiy member being in the military.
With the men, it seems that the sexual torture is not just for pleasure and submission, but also to ensure that Ukrainian males will no longer be able to have children.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 04, 2023, 02:19:39 am
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
Post by: King Zultan on August 04, 2023, 04:14:21 am
Post by: Starver on August 04, 2023, 04:50:10 am
Not sure there's any catalogue photos of them. If destroyed, as intended by use or through defensive action against them, might not leave handily recognisable and recoverable bits. The news keeps using the same "stranded on a beach" example file-photo to illustrate what one was like.
Future war-historians might know a whole lot more, naturally.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 04, 2023, 05:23:04 am
Are the naval drones those remote controlled boats filled with explosives they were talking about a while back?
Are the naval drones those remote controlled boats filled with explosives they were talking about a while back?
Yep, those - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iv1WbNY-yB0&t=1s
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 04, 2023, 05:36:25 am
Ukrainian naval drones successfully (there is video of at least one warship being damaged) attacked Russian Naval Base in Novorossiysk. It demonstrates that we can engage targets on the other side of the Black Sea and it is massive. I'd love to see attacks on the civilian Novorossiysk port, messing with its oil and other exportsPutin now going to realise the Black Sea grain deal was the only thing keeping his ships safe
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 05, 2023, 06:22:25 am
IMO, it is too generous. 48 hours' notice would be enough, Or 72.
____________
Edit: source I took it from misunderstood the "041200 UTC AUG 23" date format :) It is actually from August 4.
Happy exporting from Novorossyisk, Russia.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 05, 2023, 02:31:50 pm
Post by: Cathar on August 05, 2023, 03:40:50 pm
Ukrainian officials are claiming that the first line of Russian fortifications in the south have been broken through in multiple places. (https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukrainian-forces-break-russian-first-line-of-defense-in-south/) The second lines are holding for now, but coming under attack.
That started near Robotine, maybe two weeks ago.Apparently this is huge, considering the second line is mostly there to prevent the first from retreating.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 05, 2023, 04:26:07 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 06, 2023, 02:46:43 am
Post by: EuchreJack on August 06, 2023, 02:14:09 pm
This turns out to be 100% accurate. (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-maritime-drone-slams-into-russian-oil-tanker-kerch-strait-2023-8?amp)Ukrainian naval drones successfully (there is video of at least one warship being damaged) attacked Russian Naval Base in Novorossiysk. It demonstrates that we can engage targets on the other side of the Black Sea and it is massive. I'd love to see attacks on the civilian Novorossiysk port, messing with its oil and other exportsPutin now going to realise the Black Sea grain deal was the only thing keeping his ships safe
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 07, 2023, 08:29:10 am
That's a lot of ordnance going boom holy smokesThis turns out to be 100% accurate. (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-maritime-drone-slams-into-russian-oil-tanker-kerch-strait-2023-8?amp)Ukrainian naval drones successfully (there is video of at least one warship being damaged) attacked Russian Naval Base in Novorossiysk. It demonstrates that we can engage targets on the other side of the Black Sea and it is massive. I'd love to see attacks on the civilian Novorossiysk port, messing with its oil and other exportsPutin now going to realise the Black Sea grain deal was the only thing keeping his ships safe
So far, it is the only domestic weapons program that was started after the war has begun, that shows noticeable results. I hope there are others that are not as visible.
Does the Crimean Bridge just provide a link from Crimea to Russia, or are there other major ways in and out of Crimea? Presumably those just link to Ukrainian territory?Not really about reinforcements, more important for disrupting Russian ability to resupply its own forces with ammunition/shells/barrels/water/food/fuel and all the other usual gubbins needed to sustain military action. The Crimean bridge is vitally important to disrupt as much as possible because trucks carrying supplies to the Crimean peninsula can then offload their supplies to Crimean supply depots. These depots can then transport supplies to Melitopol/Zaporozhia/Mariupol through the railway bridge on the Syvash (a vast shallow-water area which is a logistic nightmare to traverse) which the Ukrainians have also been sabotaging with missiles and saboteurs.
I'm trying to understand the strategic value in destroying the bridge. It presumably would prevent reinforcements from arriving that way from Russia, but Crimea isn't really close to the front lines from what I can see. I guess it might serve as one of the main routes from the south?
I'm also curious about the impact on potentially trapping civilians. I can only assume a ton of Russians moved to Crimea after it was annexed, so I wonder what will even happen if Ukraine reclaims it.
This forces Russia to use railway lines on the Rostov-Donetsk axis (which are in range of Ukrainian artillery), roads (which have lower transport volumes or have to take wide detours to avoid artillery/drone fire) or transport by port in Mariupol or Berdyansk (vulnerable adverse weather conditions and to port strikes, which the Ukrainians have also been conducting). All of which results in lower volumes of war materiel front line russians can use to shoot at Ukrainians, which greatly increases Russian attrition and makes the chance of forcing Russian withdrawal much greater. This is similar to what the Ukrainian army did in Kherson. They continually attacked despite heavy casualties, forcing the Russians to use up their stockpiles of ammunition. They destroyed the bridges behind them, so they could not restock on ammunition. Eventually their shortages became too dangerous to sustain and were forced to withdraw
To update on the bridge over the Syvash, the Ukrainians upgraded it with some air holes again
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
If Ukraine can keep hammering Russia's ports and Crimean land bridges this will make the Ukrainian offensive much easier
Post by: martinuzz on August 08, 2023, 04:41:56 am
Children will learn that Russia sent a peacekeeping mission to Crimea in 2014, with as goal denazification an demilitarization of Ukraine.
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 08, 2023, 06:04:46 am
The Kremlin presented a new school history book, in which the war in Ukraine is romanticized and condoned.A is for Ah fuck we can't do anything right
Children will learn that Russia sent a peacekeeping mission to Crimea in 2014, with as goal denazification an demilitarization of Ukraine.
B is for blyat Putin
C is for Crimea is Ukraine
Post by: martinuzz on August 09, 2023, 06:25:23 am
The factory produced optical equipment like night vision goggles and binoculars. 34 people were injured in the explosion.
No more night vision gear for the Zombies! Fear the night!
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 09, 2023, 03:54:52 pm
Post by: Starver on August 09, 2023, 05:07:44 pm
Which does sound a bit like "we need an excuse for a lot more explosions than a drone alone could produce". Also, there seems to be disagreement in Russian officialdom about whether a drone did hit it.
I suppose both drone and no-drone initiation of such an incident could be seen as differently bad (NPI!) optics in various native-aimed press releasing circles. Whatever happened, they clearly haven't properly negotiated between themselves how much to reveal/obfuscate the incident.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 09, 2023, 05:22:55 pm
It is entirely possible that this was a genuine accident - an optics plant would not have the proper construction and safety procedures to handle explosives - but it certainly wasn't fireworks.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2023, 12:56:20 am
It was a one-time explosion of a large amount of explosives. One theory I think is plausible is that they were removing explosives from old shells and storing those in one place. And that could explode from a small drone, sabotage or simple neglect of safety.
___________
In other news, something was burning at or near Domodevo airport at Moscow. Making air traffic in and out of Moscow impossible would be quite damaging for the Russian economy but it is quite a puzzle of how to do it without civilian casualties
Post by: hector13 on August 10, 2023, 02:05:05 am
Post by: King Zultan on August 10, 2023, 02:21:11 am
Post by: Duuvian on August 10, 2023, 03:48:01 am
That suggests it was a 2nd corporation leasing space from the optics company.
Post by: martinuzz on August 10, 2023, 05:26:33 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2023, 02:42:24 pm
Flying drones would do it. Gatwick in London got shut down for a day by one person flying a drone near the airport, to the point the mikitary were called in to get an anti-drone shield type thing in.
We are talking about Russia here, they are more... resistant to that kind of disruption. After all, a midair collision between a Ukrainian drone and a passenger jet would be a huge win for their propaganda
____________
Meanwhile, I lost all hope for meaningful achievements in the Ukrainian offensive this year. Something will be liberated (for a great cost) but I fail to see a decisive blow to Russian ability to wage war.
Also, Kupyansk is about to get Bakhmuted with Russians advancing closer to it in their offensive on the northern front.
What is most concerning: Ukraine is running out of motivated potential recruits. It shows in a far more substantial effort of finding and getting mobilization dodgers and those are... not gonna be good fighters.
______________
And Russia doesn't need motivated people, they can force enough obedient citizens:
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1684283287898935297 - It is how Russia manufactures Shahed drones using an almost free workforce. Being able to act like this is its strength, in the short run. (Note that this must be taken with a grain of salt because there is no truly reliable sources, but knowing modern Russia I expect something like this)
Post by: martinuzz on August 11, 2023, 03:37:55 am
As far as the UN can tell, no UN staff were injured.
Post by: Duuvian on August 11, 2023, 07:01:06 am
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415112/
It may not be a bad idea to consider this if you operate a website with a Yandex script on it
Post by: Flying Teasets on August 11, 2023, 12:52:46 pm
Kremlin wants to nationalise Yandex in preparation for presidential elections – ISWReminder that Yandex was a major provider of search results to DuckDuckGo.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415112/
It may not be a bad idea to consider this if you operate a website with a Yandex script on it
Post by: martinuzz on August 12, 2023, 05:44:35 pm
Forces in a secret location retreat, where soldiers are allowed aroma therapy and other relaxation session before being sent back to the front report that specifically the salt air therapy meant to relieve their lungs is nice, because it clears their lungs from the 'whatever gas it was that the Russians used on us'.
It is really about time the fuckers get nuked to the stone age.
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 14, 2023, 09:24:18 am
Kremlin wants to nationalise Yandex in preparation for presidential elections – ISWSeems like retaliation for the Yandex founder turning his back on Putin (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/10/co-founder-of-russian-tech-giant-yandex-condemns-barbaric-war)
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/11/7415112/
It may not be a bad idea to consider this if you operate a website with a Yandex script on it
Post by: martinuzz on August 15, 2023, 04:58:20 am
Police no longer apprehend criminals, because if they accidentally arrest a criminal that has served in Ukraine, the arresting police officer will be sent to prison for 15 years, for ' discrediting heroes of the special military operation'.
So now, police just let most criminals do their crime thing, except the most horrible, like child rapists.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 15, 2023, 08:46:21 pm
Palau is in free association with the USA. Does that mean that if Russia had shot the ship, the US would have had to declare war, or does free association not include military protection?
EDIT: not only that, the ship itself was Turkish, but sailing under the Palau flag. Could have been an article 5.
Posting my response here, to avoid jamming up the news thread.
So yeah, basically Russia shooting at a ship flying a Palau flag is about as close as they can piss on the US without triggering WWIII.
In fact, I'm downright ashamed the US didn't kick up more of a stink. The US is, after all, technically in charge of all the defense of Palau.
Without knowing much more than wikipedia said, Palua is basically like Japan in regards to national defense.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2023, 04:09:42 am
It is like proudly announcing that you threw a rock in a neighbor's window after he burned down a part of your house.
Post by: The_Explorer on August 18, 2023, 12:55:28 pm
Whats also depressing is we've sent BILLIONS of dollars, so much military equipment and vehicles...the entire west...and its STILL a stalemate over there. I was hoping a lot more would happen during the counteroffensive, but it was almost overhyped. That and the money ends up going who knows where since there is a huge problem with corruption over there apparently, unless thats fake news, but apparently there has been a lot of key positions just being straight up fired and arrested for treason.
The whole thing is a mess. I really thought russia would just collapse and fail the war, the western technology far outpaces russia's...so dunno how its still a stalemate.
And these drone things, I do kinda agree. That is a good example, burn down someones home, they throw a rock through your window and thats considered positive news :| that makes it more depressing
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 01:01:28 pm
the western technology far outpaces russia's...so dunno how its still a stalemate.This ultimately just turned out not to be true.
Russia apparently has a much stronger industrial base than anyone living in a "service-sector-oriented", deindustrialized Western country imagined.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2023, 01:14:01 pm
And I don't think the problem of the Ukrainian offensive is not getting enough in billions in weaponry. The problem is "avoiding escalation" which gives Russia time. Take cluster munitions. I read a lot from both our troops praising how good American Cluster munitions are and from Russians complaining how deadly those are. How many Ukrainian lives could be saved if cluster munition would be supplied during, for example, the battle for Bakhmut? Or When Russians retreated from Kherson with minimal losses while cluster munitions are exceptionally deadly when striking retreating forces.
Oh, "and not using Western weapons to strike into Russian territory" is fighting with one hand tied behind our backs. If Russian military targets in border regions received their dose of cruise missiles it would be a very different story.
Post by: The_Explorer on August 18, 2023, 01:48:38 pm
But yeah, there has been a lot of being far too careful not to go past russia's borders and being too slow on the offensives. Both which is weird to me and doesn't make sense.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 01:58:34 pm
Hm, does that mean Russia can just outproduce the west? I always thought the west (and US) just had way outpaced technology (not in production but how ahead of we are than russia in technology is what I meant). But maybe quantity>quality in this case? Its a bit off-topic, but I guess china would have the same thing, quantity>quality, though probably still better quality than russia. their economy is collapsing though. But thats not really for this thread.Why do you think the US has outpaced Russia in technology? All countries pretty much have the same technology now, and have for nearly a century. There are still small-scale state secrets in military spheres like individual navigation systems and stuff like that, but even there, everyone has COMPARABLE things. The last Armenia-Azerbaijan war, in the Caucasian backwater, was fought with drones.
But yeah, there has been a lot of being far too careful not to go past russia's borders and being too slow on the offensives. Both which is weird to me and doesn't make sense.
Russia also seems to have far more production capacity in currently usable existence. America probably has more capital, but we just don't have the factories and facilities actually built to the same extent.
Look at it like this: The USSR was way, way worse than modern Russia (a state that runs mostly on oil) in economic terms, but they still beat us in the space race and nuclear technology. This shows that it is honestly not that hard.
One more fact that goes to Russia's industrial capacity: Russia has some of the cheapest oil production in the world, pulling it out of the ground at an estimated total production cost of about $20 a barrel. They then sell that oil at, now, around $80 a barrel. That margin buys a lot of access to capital, and the state pretty fanatically invests that money back into expanding industry.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 18, 2023, 02:02:24 pm
.
.
Look at it like this: The USSR was way, way worse than modern Russia (a state that runs mostly on oil) in economic terms, but they still beat us in the space race and nuclear technology. This shows that it is honestly not that hard.
You're wrong of course. Both in the USSR beating the west in space and nuclear technology, and in Putin's Russia being more important than the USSR economicallu
Quote
At the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Bloc represented 9% of the world’s population and 10.5% of its economy, measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP). The equivalent numbers for Russia and its allies (the ‘Putin Bloc’) in 2020 are 2.5% and 3.5%. If measured at market exchange rate, even before accounting for the ruble’s recent depreciation, the Putin Bloc’s share of GDP is even lower: 1.8% versus 6% for the Soviet Bloc at the end of the Cold War.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 02:10:44 pm
You're wrong of course. Both in the USSR beating the west in space and nuclear technology, and in Putin's Russia being more important than the USSR economicalluI didn't say "important" at all, but at the same time, this statistic isn't actually relevant in any way. It's just a smokescreen of numbers.QuoteAt the end of the Cold War, the Soviet Bloc represented 9% of the world’s population and 10.5% of its economy, measured at purchasing-power parity (PPP). The equivalent numbers for Russia and its allies (the ‘Putin Bloc’) in 2020 are 2.5% and 3.5%. If measured at market exchange rate, even before accounting for the ruble’s recent depreciation, the Putin Bloc’s share of GDP is even lower: 1.8% versus 6% for the Soviet Bloc at the end of the Cold War.
Russia is where the marginal barrel of oil, the fuel for the entire world at the moment, comes from; that's economically far more important than PPPGDP. If Russia wanted to, it could destroy the economies of several countries, including US ally Saudi Arabia, right now by pulling a China move and offering cheap oil (like China has steel) so other countries cannot afford to produce it. It would have to take on short-term debt and/or contract its economy to do so, but it would survive.
As to whether what I actually said was right, have you heard of Sputnik? Tsar Bomba? VVERs, which are still being built by countries around the world?
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2023, 02:30:58 pm
Why do you think the US has outpaced Russia in technology? All countries pretty much have the same technology now, and have for nearly a century. There are still small-scale state secrets in military spheres like individual navigation systems and stuff like that, but even there, everyone has COMPARABLE things. The last Armenia-Azerbaijan war, in the Caucasian backwater, was fought with drones.
Russia also seems to have far more production capacity in currently usable existence. America probably has more capital, but we just don't have the factories and facilities actually built to the same extent.
Please, enlighten me on Russian military production capacity. I am especially interested in Russian military-grade microchips. Or civilian-grade microchips. Or 5th generation fighters. Or aircraft carriers. Or modern drones. And show me how it can produce more of those than the USA.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 02:57:52 pm
Please, enlighten me on Russian military production capacity. I am especially interested in Russian military-grade microchips. Or civilian-grade microchips. Or 5th generation fighters. Or aircraft carriers. Or modern drones. And show me how it can produce more of those than the USA.Russia doesn't produce many microchips, but they buy tons of them from everyone else. That's one of the ways that, like I said, everyone has basically the same technology these days. Not too many microchips are produced in the US, either.
Really, I feel like you've misunderstood my point. I'm not talking about military production capacity, but general production capacity, ie, what you need to run a country. The US has churned out a lot of F-35s, but they don't actually benefit anybody except CEOs of military contractors. Having high general production capacity is what gives that adaptability we were talking about - the ability to spin something up on short notice to produce reasonable amounts of something you need right now. The US has done far more to specialize in huge expensive toys - like 5th-generation fighters and aircraft carriers - that just aren't efficient in modern combat scenarios in the new UAV/USV regime. We saw this problem on the small screen in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia keeps cranking out Lancets.
Look, I'd rather live here than Russia any day. The US is pretty great. But we aren't good at everything.
Post by: McTraveller on August 18, 2023, 03:34:31 pm
And that's exactly why Nukes Are BadTM, because they basically allow a country to be way more belligerent without meaningful reprisal than they could be without it.
Put another way: NATO and "the good guys" are indeed too nice - they try to avoid killing too many civilians, etc. If we just said "sorry, invading other countries is bad, we're going to beat you to a pulp, even if we get beat up ourselves" then countries would probably be less reluctant to invade others.
Basically we're too afraid of getting hurt ourselves. You will always lose against a rabid foe if you are too worried about your own safety; the best you can do is retreat and hopefully the aggressor will tire themselves out.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 03:39:42 pm
I think the only think keeping Russia alive is, honestly, the fact that Russia has nukes. If they didn't, NATO or others would have air-forced them into rubble by now.That's fairly accurate. We could send hypersonic jets to bomb Moscow, but then we would get to enjoy a strange game where the only way to win is not to play. And the thing is, most western countries have really underprepared for doing anything LESS than that. Our theories of power projection are outdated and may never have really made sense in the first place. Boom-boom-go-fast doesn't really win protracted wars.
Let me add though: I don't agree at all with the thesis in the rest of your post that we should kill tons of civilians to "punish" their overlords for being bad. Bombing Dresden was wrong and it's good that the general attitude of humanity has turned against it.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2023, 03:44:06 pm
the ability to spin something up on short notice to produce reasonable amounts of something you need right now. The US has done far more to specialize in huge expensive toys - like 5th-generation fighters and aircraft carriers - that just aren't efficient in modern combat scenarios in the new UAV/USV regime. We saw this problem on the small screen in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Russia keeps cranking out Lancets.
Yes, Russia keeps cranking Lancets... with contrabanded or stockpiled Western components. Do you think the USA can't start producing a huge number of something like those should it find any need to do so? I know that Nvidia and AMD prefer to produce stuff in Asia nowadays, but the core of the Lancet is THEIR civilian technologies. I think they'll manage and organize the production of something like Lancet in the USA should the need arise. Within weeks. Well... maybe months.
But the USA doesn't need such crap
Post by: McTraveller on August 18, 2023, 03:52:13 pm
Makes you sort of long for the dystopia where wars are like sports, refereed by an AI or something, where you get some kind of actual penalty if you break the rules.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 18, 2023, 08:21:47 pm
As to whether what I actually said was right, have you heard of Sputnik? Tsar Bomba? VVERs, which are still being built by countries around the world?
Sputnik wasn't a matter of the Soviets being "ahead", even if it was taken as such by the public in both countries. The first US satellite could have been launched as early as spring of '57, but Eisenhower cancelled the military program - he wanted it done by a civilian agency using a civilian rocket because he feared that flaunting the US ICBM program would be considered provocative. That delayed things considerably. Sputnik was a outgrowth of the Soviet ICBM program (which was considerably behind the US one, to the point that if the Cuban Missile Crisis had gone hot the US would have had a good chance of surviving unscathed - fortunately Kennedy didn't know that).
Meanwhile there was nothing preventing the US from creating a Tsar Bomba equivalent either. That weapon wasn't a brilliant design, just an ordinary Soviet H-bomb built out more. It was also developed purely as a propaganda piece, intended as a "look! we aren't way behind you anymore!" message that was quite effective. A nuclear bomb that large is effectively useless for a number of reasons - soft targets like cities are much easier to destroy with multiple smaller weapons because of the way area scales (a 50mt warhead does not destroy twice as muchas a 25 Mt one!), hardened targets (where high yield was often used as a substitute for accuracy) don't need that high a yield and would create obscene amounts of fallout (hard targets like silos and bunkers are targeted with groundbursts, not airbursts), and a big enough nuclear detonation escapes the atmosphere and dumps a large portion of energy harmlessly into space. This is why the Soviets never intended to -and didn't- build more than one. Their largest deployed warheads were in the same 10-15 megaton range as the US ones.
The VVER is just one type of pressurized water reactor. Everybody who has reactor technology developed those, and the use of any one design is more down to political reasons than technological.
Boom-boom-go-fast doesn't really win protracted wars.
No, that's wrong. The primary reason that Ukraine is struggling right now is a lack of "boom boom go fast". If one of the US air forces was involved in this war, the Russians would never have been able to build such protracted defensive lines in the first place due to air attack, and what defenses they did have would function far less effectively if they were constantly at risk of attracting an ambient JDAM. The existing "stalemate" is primarily because both sides are fighting a three-dimensional war in two dimensions, because neither side has the ability to provide significant air support.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 08:59:45 pm
Sputnik wasn't a matter of the Soviets being "ahead", even if it was taken as such by the public in both countries. The first US satellite could have been launched as early as spring of '57, but Eisenhower cancelled the military program - he wanted it done by a civilian agency using a civilian rocket because he feared that flaunting the US ICBM program would be considered provocative. That delayed things considerably."They weren't ahead, they just did it first."
I don't understand what other definition of "winning a race" you have.
Look, I think we're talking past each other here. Everything you said goes to the point I was making. They didn't have a spectacular missile program, but they launched the first satellite. They didn't have a spectacular weapons program, but they made the biggest nuke. There was nothing particularly special about their nuclear reactors, but they built a bunch of them.
This shows that it is honestly not that hard.They just chose to focus on those things, mainly for oneupmanship reasons. The fact that it doesn't take a global superpower to make a technological propaganda win is exactly what I mean. And this is even more true now than it was then, since everyone's buying from the same relatively small technological pool, eg, Nvidia chips.
Post by: McTraveller on August 18, 2023, 09:40:47 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 18, 2023, 09:51:34 pm
Huh? My claim was that “boom boom go fast” is indeed how you win wars.That was a quote from me. I didn't even notice it got messed up.
It's really not, though. I mean, it can HELP, but it doesn't win on its own. Look at the US' experience with it so far in - any part of the middle east, really. The US military's theory of power projection for some time now, maybe since the end of WWII when boom boom go fast actually did make Japan surrender, seems to have been too focused on showboating.
ETA: Sometimes with actual show boats. Aircraft carriers, man. You don't even know how much of a waste of money that is these days.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 18, 2023, 11:05:13 pm
The US, and NATO overall aren't anywhere near a war footing. The last time the US went to a war footing it produced so many tanks, ships, and planes that we were changing factories back to civilian production a full year before the war would end in Europe. The stockpiles of torpedoes, artillery shells, and bullets produced during WWII lasted decades even through several other wars. Even if we say "sure, we're definitely deindustrialized and I don't drive past a dozen active heavy industry plants just on my commute to work everyday", the US still retains the know-how and manufacturing capability to build the factories to do it, in record time as well.
In short, and to avoid actually reading the previous conversation about war industries, lol, no, Russia does not have industrial or technological parity with the rest of the world. Their tech is not equal to ours, the world has not been equal in tech all over for a century (where even did you get this idea?), and were some of the nations of NATO to actually go to a war footing and just start giving everything to Ukraine, Russia would have a Very Bad DayTM and it would just keep getting worse.
Spin where is NATO going to get a hypersonic bomber? There are none in service in NATO countries so far as I'm aware, heck I don't think there's any hypersonic bombers in service anywhere. Quick Wikipedia check says no hypersonic planes in service at all, at least going by the Mach 5+ definition. And a ballistic missile would work a lot better.
"Winning the space race" is an unending argument, apparently. The US unquestionably did because we came out of it with more and better technology and were able to actually USE that technology in many, many, many, MANY places. The Soviets came out of it with a bankruptcy problem and fell apart.
Sheesh, Spin, do you have a gripe with every decision made by military leaders? Do you not admit even a bit that they might, might, know what they're doing? Carriers aren't useless, just check the combat radius of a loaded fighter aircraft to understand precisely why, while you be sure to consider that the pilot needs to sleep and the plane needs maintenance and if it gets damaged the pilot is going to want a nearby landing strip and...
There's huge differences between fighting a nation like Russia that doesn't want to be in the war it's in (as in, the people mostly don't) and trying to perform policing actions after the major fighting is over somewhere in the Middle East. The issue isn't with the power projection, which worked quite handily in demolishing every regime that bothered us. It's with what comes after, when you're occupying a territory and a significant fraction of the people don't want you there.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 12:37:10 am
Aircraft carriers are giant sitting ducks to submarines and you will enjoy your extended combat radius very briefly before you get sent on a surprise exploratory expedition on the seafloor against a modern submarine fleet. And then your fighter probably takes a UAV to the face.
I don't know why you think Russia doesn't have night-vision equipment, though. They have night-vision equipment, it's basically functional, we've seen it on spetsnazzers. They just don't issue it to regular soldiers because their military system is hopelessly moribund and corrupt. Well, I understand they tried to get more equipment into the hands of soldiers at some point, but I don't know to what extent that's worked, probably not very much.
Of course Russia's tank production isn't comparable to the US. That's exactly the kind of big specialized effort I said they're not good at. On the other hand, their production of things that blow up tanks has, unfortunately, been solid. Frankly, modern tanks are not cost-effective, being designed more for pitched tank-tank battles that never really happen anymore. This is a running theme with modern equipment, because military contractors like money and aren't too fussed if you have to order a new tank because your old one ate an anti-tank mine costing perhaps a couple hundred. In those conditions, you might as well use a T-55; it'll die just as hard, but at least it didn't cost much and it's probably lighter.
I mean, this is the only sane way to evaluate technology. Not "is it functionally the same in its specific category", but "is it actually worth using". The thing about the US producing so many tanks, ships, and planes that blah blah blah is that the era of tanks, ships, and planes, in the conventional sense of those things, is basically over. If the last dozen or so wars around the world, especially the Nagorno-Karabakh war, haven't convinced you of that, you haven't been paying attention.
I'm not saying NATO couldn't have rolled over Russia if it tried, either. In context, I said that Russia has a stronger industrial base than Westerners imagined and that it's not surprising that what was sent to Ukraine wasn't adequate, because it's not leaps and bounds ahead of what Russia has in any way that matters. And yes, that means including asymmetrical comparisons, like loitering ammunition beats tank. You cannot possibly argue that this is untrue because it happened. We all watched it. Russia has been flinging shells and missiles at Ukrainians in massive numbers for over a year with no sign of running out, even though everyone was sure they'd have to, because this is what they chose to specialize in. And unfortunately, it works.
Although I think it's funny that you specifically called out night vision equipment and tanks when I just read this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/07/a-shortage-of-optics-was-holding-back-russian-tank-production-that-shortage-may-have-ended/?sh=513f21a43dff
ETA: Look, I'm not trying to be a doomer here, but the facts on the ground are that we didn't do enough, and that sucks, and we're going to need to adapt if we want to beat Russia, which is something military bureaucracies absolutely hate doing. And if this adaptation goes through the traditional military contractor pathway, it's going to take two years to work its way to preliminary proposal status and come out more bloated than Microsoft Office. It's like The_Explorer said to begin with - Russia has turned out to be much nimbler than anyone gave it credit for, and the US has not invested its resources in nimbleness for a very long time. And we need to start.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 19, 2023, 12:42:43 am
Makes you sort of long for the dystopia where wars are like sports, refereed by an AI or something, where you get some kind of actual penalty if you break the rules.There was a Star Trek TOS episode where two planets were having an unending simulated war to prevent infrastructural damage, and soldiers who get "shot", or civilians who get "bombed" are instructed to go to vaporization chambers. I got reminded of that.
Anyways, 🍿
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 01:40:12 am
Quote
Frankly, modern tanks are not cost-effective, being designed more for pitched tank-tank battles that never really happen anymore. This is a running theme with modern equipment, because military contractors like money and aren't too fussed if you have to order a new tank because your old one ate an anti-tank mine costing perhaps a couple hundred. In those conditions, you might as well use a T-55; it'll die just as hard, but at least it didn't cost much and it's probably lighter.
A similar thing was true since day 1 of tanks being a thing. WW2 tanks could be knocked out by a single Molotov, you can't go cheaper than that. Yet, tanks were cost-effective then, and they stay cost-effective now.
And the difference in firepower and protection between T-55 and some modern tank is immense. It is simply wrong to assume that their chance to cease function after a land mine is the same.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 01:46:57 am
A similar thing was true since day 1 of tanks being a thing. WW2 tanks could be knocked out by a single Molotov, you can't go cheaper than that. Yet, tanks were cost-effective then, and they stay cost-effective now.They were cost-effective then because nobody had figured that out yet. They aren't now because people have.
I mean. Look. We can SEE the amount of tanks that have blown up, and calculate the cost in dollars. It's not like this is a theory. We need to use different tactics.
Quote
And the difference in firepower and protection between T-55 and some modern tank is immense. It is simply wrong to assume that their chance to cease function after a land mine is the same.Neither that extra firepower nor the kind of protection that modern tanks are designed with (which is mainly against fire coming in more or less horizontally) help against mines. The truth is that their chance to cease function after a land mine really is very close to parity, close enough that you don't want to try driving over a mine to chance it. Some modern tank types are actually worse due to designs that, while a good idea in the theory of tank-tank combat, make mines more deadly to the occupants. As far as I know, no modern tanks come standard with measures that effectively defend against those newer anti-tank mines that fly up and smash into the roof that Russia's so proud of. Yes, the modern tanks are very fancy. The problem is that it doesn't help.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 02:09:30 am
Quote
I mean. Look. We can SEE the amount of tanks that have blown up, and calculate the cost in dollars. It's not like this is a theory. We need to use different tactics.
It is literally what tanks are made for. - To go into places where the enemy will try to destroy them with various means. Naturally, most of them are destroyed sooner or later. It is how it worked in every war that had tanks except very lopsided ones.
Quote
Neither that extra firepower nor the kind of protection that modern tanks are designed with (which is mainly against fire coming in more or less horizontally) help against mines. The truth is that their chance to cease function after a land mine really is very close to parity, close enough that you don't want to try driving over a mine to chance it.
This is not exactly accurate. Ask surviving tank crews of Leopard 2s, who would be in space if they were in a T-72.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 02:17:56 am
That's entirely true, but you must see how this is a problem when the tank costs millions of dollars and the means of destroying it costs a few hundred bucks. At that point, something has gone very wrong and new tactics are needed. At the very least, new specifically anti-mine tank designs which no country currently has. Right now, really practical demining equipment does not exist in the world. The best demining equipment is slow and expensive (read: vulnerable) and don't even individually cover enough area to safely run a tank convoy behind one even if this wouldn't get the tank convoy shelled to hell because the demining equipment is slow. The country that invents that will, indeed, have a genuinely important technological advantage, for however long it takes for everyone to copy it.QuoteI mean. Look. We can SEE the amount of tanks that have blown up, and calculate the cost in dollars. It's not like this is a theory. We need to use different tactics.
It is literally what tanks are made for. - To go into places where the enemy will try to destroy them with various means. Naturally, most of them are destroyed sooner or later. It is how it worked in every war that had tanks except very lopsided ones.
This is not exactly accurate. Ask surviving tank crews of Leopard 2s, who would be in space if they were in a T-72.More survivors is great, although I will caution you that, again, some modern tanks are worse; but you don't actually win wars by having more people limp home after losing a battle.
You said yourself that the current tactics aren't working. I agree that they're not working. I don't understand the dispute here, honestly. Technology and tactics have to evolve to meet the needs of evolving circumstances.
ETA: Honestly, I don't know why you guys aren't - unless you are and it's not making it over here, in which case never mind - mining the hell out of the Kupyansk front and probably also around Kherson in the direction they'd have to go to reach Odessa. Yeah, it'll suck to have to demine them later, but it'll suck even more if Russia advances on them, because then they will mine the hell out of it, and now you have to get it back and then demine it.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 03:09:18 am
ETA: Honestly, I don't know why you guys aren't - unless you are and it's not making it over here, in which case never mind - mining the hell out of the Kupyansk front and probably also around Kherson in the direction they'd have to go to reach Odessa. Yeah, it'll suck to have to demine them later, but it'll suck even more if Russia advances on them, because then they will mine the hell out of it, and now you have to get it back and then demine it.
We simply don't have as many mines as Russia. Unlike them, we didn't produce those after the fall of USSR and while we inherited huge stokpiles in 1991... Some were sold both officially and via corrupt means, some went bad due to neglect. Some went BOOM in storages under mysterious circumstances. Some were destroyed for Western money in wonderful projects like this (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_99728.htm?selectedLocale=en)
Sure, we are getting mines from the former Warsaw Pact stocks. We are even getting some modern and cool ones but it is not nearly enough to mine such a huge front to the same extent as Russians do.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 03:13:06 am
We simply don't have as many mines as Russia. Unlike them, we didn't produce those after the fall of USSR and while we inherited huge stokpiles in 1991... Some were sold both officially and via corrupt means, some went bad due to neglect. Some went BOOM in storages under mysterious circumstances. Some were destroyed for Western money in wonderful projects like this (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_99728.htm?selectedLocale=en)Ah, I see. That figures.
Sure, we are getting mines from the former Warsaw Pact stocks. We are even getting some modern and cool ones but it is not nearly enough to mine such a huge front to the same extent as Russians do.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 19, 2023, 10:40:09 am
Huh it's almost like aircraft carriers don't operate alone and are instead escorted, by their own submarines and destroyers and their aircraft and so on and so forth.
Mines costing "a few hundred bucks" don't kill tanks. At all. A mine that costs a few thousand at the least might immobilize the tank, but the crew and vehicle will both survive to go back into action. Also what even is this about tanks being effective in WWII because people hadn't figured out Molotovs or comparable weapons? Molotovs literally came about in WWII and testing has shown that they are of very, very, very limited effectiveness against tanks. They could occasionally make a WWII tanker bail, but only sometimes would they burn out the engine. And to get close enough to employ that thing, you've got to get past the tank's weapons, his infantry companions, his other tanks in his platoon, and any other forces in the area. Rather than go further, I refer you to the Chieftain's video on the topic.
Russia doesn't have a meaningful amount of night-vision equipment. They certainly do have some that is used on some of the tanks that are supposed to have it (most of them don't) and for elite units...but every other modern military in the world is running around with night vision given out like candy to just about every regular soldier expected to fight at all. Including the Ukrainians. That is why I say that the Russians are blind at night, because most of their forces actually are. And yes, there's been some noise about them beginning to do their own production, but I've seen a lot of skepticism about their ability to actually produce modern night vision and optical systems.
The thing about the US producing so many tanks, ships, and planes that blah blah blah is that the era of tanks, ships, and planes, in the conventional sense of those things, is basically over. If the last dozen or so wars around the world, especially the Nagorno-Karabakh war, haven't convinced you of that, you haven't been paying attention."The conventional sense of those things"? Do you expect wars to be fought with sticks next? They era of tanks, ships, and planes isn't over, very clearly. Those things are still used to wage war. And will still be used to wage war.
I'm also not seeing the argument for NATO not being "nimble". While the internet has cried loudly that Russia was going to crumble (and we all wished they would, realistic or not), I don't recall any major military figures in NATO or Ukraine saying this would be anything other than a bloody slog. So clearly we didn't underestimate them too badly, at least not at the level that actually matters. We understand they're able to adapt at least a bit, though it's taken them quite awhile and they're still making huge mistakes that shouldn't be made, but I'm not sure how any of this reflects all that badly on NATO's own ability to adapt.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 11:27:28 am
Also, what underestimation of Russia are we talking about? NATO expected that the Russian-Ukrainian war will be over in a week or two. They estimated that the Russian air force and missiles are nearly as effective as NATO's and will just destroy everything of military value quickly and efficiently devolving all resistance into guerilla
If NATO would attack Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian airforce and air defense would cease to exist in a few days max.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 19, 2023, 11:35:41 am
Tank will be obsolete when and only when there is something that can replace them in their role and the only plausible thing is that it may be - tanks but unmanned.
Nah, Tanks will be obsolete when the Panzer Mecha is perfected. Just look at those (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gundam) historical (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MechWarrior) future simulation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Front_Mission) video games (https://www.gearheadrpg.com/) and other media!
Post by: Starver on August 19, 2023, 01:35:34 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 01:57:46 pm
The Chieftain, a tanker and professional historian, disagrees greatly with the idea that the modern tank is no longer cost effective. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lI7T650RTT8) There is literally nobody on the internet better placed to make that judgement, either.I have no idea why I would trust the opinion of someone who both is a historian, one of the best known occupations for making up bullshit, and has a personal stake in the outcome.
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Huh it's almost like aircraft carriers don't operate alone and are instead escorted, by their own submarines and destroyers and their aircraft and so on and so forth.This does not work. Modern submarines frequently pass close to each other without being noticed, and even collide with things — even extremely expensive top-of-the-line American submarines from the past couple years. The sensor (and physical) environment underwater is just not the same, it's too easy to strike stealthily from a distance. Surface ships have even less hope of detecting modern submarines, and aircraft... do next to nothing in this context. Your best bet - once again - is to heavily mine the sea area where you'll be working, but this has obvious operational disadvantages and doesn't work quite as well as on land either.
No naval war has ever been fought between two countries with modern submarine fleets, but the last times that came close, it did not look good for surface ships. They're a tool that work against much weaker nations.
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Mines costing "a few hundred bucks" don't kill tanks. At all. A mine that costs a few thousand at the least might immobilize the tank, but the crew and vehicle will both survive to go back into action. Also what even is this about tanks being effective in WWII because people hadn't figured out Molotovs or comparable weapons? Molotovs literally came about in WWII and testing has shown that they are of very, very, very limited effectiveness against tanks. They could occasionally make a WWII tanker bail, but only sometimes would they burn out the engine. And to get close enough to employ that thing, you've got to get past the tank's weapons, his infantry companions, his other tanks in his platoon, and any other forces in the area. Rather than go further, I refer you to the Chieftain's video on the topic.Jesus you're overly literal.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 19, 2023, 02:31:44 pm
Modern submarines pass by each other like that because they're not running active sonar because they don't want to be spotted and tracked by their sonar emissions; running escort works different because you assume someone is hunting your obvious surface target and are prepared to spot anything that might otherwise try to track you. And warships do not typically use active sonar when just wandering around because of its deleterious effects on local wildlife, but in a combat environment you'd best believe they would. Are subs dangerous? Absolutely. But are they an automagic counter to all things not submarine? Absolutely not.
And aircraft do nothing? Clearly you've never seen how ASW works then. Sonar buoys, spotting the silhouette of a submarine if it's too close to the surface, tracking radio emissions if it is for some reason surfaced and communicating, so on and so forth the US maintains an entire fleet of ASW warplanes and helicopters for precisely this purpose. They work, I assure you.
I mean, sure I'm arguing against the literal words in the posts? But also, I'm assuming there's a reason you are raising examples and so I'm arguing against those examples to make the larger points.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 02:58:39 pm
You're thinking "look at all these ways we have of fighting against submarines!"
I think "It only takes one to get through, and one will eventually get through."
It would be different if the expense ratio were different, but a modern enemy, say China, can field a hell of a lot more submarines, drones, and torpedoes than you can field carriers with full escorts.
It's not like this exact sort of technological asymmetry hasn't happened before. This is what ended the era of ironclads, capital ships, and ships of the line. It's why we even have a class of "destroyers". The history of naval warfare is replete with this; it's part of what made the British Navy so formidable. People had arguments just like this back then, too.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 19, 2023, 03:16:13 pm
Destroyers exist because the motive torpedo came about and it was better to engage torpedo boats with something light, fast, carrying small guns suitable to the targets being engaged. The torpedo boat destroyer, specifically. It didn't make torpedo boats obsolete, though. They still claimed kills after the destroyer came about, but fewer than they otherwise would have. Same deal with subs; they don't make all surface ships obsolete, because a sub doesn't fill the same roles as a carrier, cruiser, destroyer, etc. It can't, not efficiently, because it makes too many design sacrifices to be a submarine. And yet each time such a weapon comes about---self-propelled torpedoes, air power, submarines, homing torpedoes, guided missiles, etc. etc. the cry goes up "all ships vulnerable to the new technologies are useless! We should get rid of them all because they'll all die for sure in minutes!" and it's never accurate. Sure, it's a new weapon, a new vulnerability, but that didn't mean you could get rid of the need for ships to do all the things warships have done for millennia. They just had to adapt a bit to yet another threat. Carry more antiaircraft guns, mount CIWS, use your own missiles to keep the enemy at range, etc.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 03:19:17 pm
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It's not like this exact sort of technological asymmetry hasn't happened before. This is what ended the era of ironclads, capital ships, and ships of the line.
None of those became obsolete because some weapon that can harm them in a cost-effective way appeared. They became obsolete because better vessels were able to do the very same job but far better.
Just because an aircraft carrier may be sunk by something doesn't make it obsolete.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 19, 2023, 03:28:15 pm
Your argument would suggest that anything not completely invulnerable is useless.No, I'm saying that anything that doesn't fill its role cost-effectively is useless.
Torpedo boat destroyers didn't make torpedo boats obsolete, they exist because torpedo boats made battleships obsolete in the role they had been filling. As a result, the role of battleships was rethought and new tactics and technologies were developed.
It's similar to how tanks already don't fill the role they were originally conceived to fill, because that became obsolete. You never see tank echelons squaring off against each other anymore, because it is inefficient compared to using tanks as fire support. The problem is that a lot of tank design still goes toward the old-fashioned idea because of a sclerotic military process, so tanks aren't being optimized for the role they actually fill. And therefore get blown up a lot. This is unnecessary, and should be considered a failure.
Similarly, aircraft carriers no longer fill their role cost-effectively, which, for one thing, is why nearly everybody uses light helicopter carriers now, but even those are becoming hard to justify. There's still a role for aircraft that can transport humans, but a lot more effort is going to move, and in the process of moving, toward using drones.
None of those became obsolete because some weapon that can harm them in a cost-effective way appeared. They became obsolete because better vessels were able to do the very same job but far better.Why do you think that happened? The reason the better vessels which came after were better is because they were lighter and more mobile, so they weren't as vulnerable to the small craft that had been thrashing the big ships. Again, we need better vessels that can do the same job - not necessarily in literal terms, but fill the same combat role - without being blown up.
Trust me, the British Royal Navy didn't start throwing out sloops because they had more firepower to do the very same job as capital ships but better.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 03:51:35 pm
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Why do you think that happened? The reason the better vessels which came after were better is because they were lighter and more mobile, so they weren't as vulnerable to the small craft that had been thrashing the big ships.
No. It happened because new ships could mop the floor with older ships because they were faster, more durable, and had more firepower. Small ships had nothing to do with it.
Pre-dreadnoughts became obsolete overnight not because of some submarine or torpedoes but because of HMS Dreadnought, which was far better in everything
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Trust me, the British Royal Navy didn't start throwing out sloops because they had more firepower to do the very same job as capital ships but better.It is exactly what happened. Post WW2 a fleet of small vessels armed with missiles provides more firepower than traditional artillery battleships of the same tonnage while being more mobile and more protected (by virtue of being a smaller target)
Post by: Madman198237 on August 19, 2023, 03:55:41 pm
Tanks were not designed to fight other tanks, and almost never have been. They were DESIGNED for infantry support; to be protected direct-fire artillery and machine gun bunkers moving across a machinegun-swept wasteland. They can't have been designed to fight other tanks because the first tank, by definition, didn't have an opposing tank to fight. The ultimate goal of an army is to take and hold ground and that means infantry (in most combat doctrines), which means all other weapons on the battlefield are by default some form of infantry support. However, the fact is that tanks fight other tanks whether you want to or not, because tanks are protected firepower on the battlefield and that means you need a bigger gun than you need when killing infantry, and oh look at that you have those bigger guns, they're mounted on your own tanks. Solution? Obvious. Design goal? Still supporting infantry against hardened targets, but sometimes those hardened targets are on tracks and can move instant of being made of concrete and fixed in position.
You are wrong about carriers as well, other nations use helicopter carriers because they can't afford to operate larger carriers and don't have the massive need for global power projection the US has. The US has the need, and the money, and so it uses carriers, which are more cost-effective than leasing land for airbases everywhere on the globe that the US may need aircraft.
At no point did torpedo boats ever get a chance to "thrash" larger ships. They have occasionally taken them down, but never have we seen a fleet of battleships be destroyed by torpedo boat. Including some Italian shenanigans against notably unescorted battleships or docked ships, rarely have torpedo boats scored the kill on a battleship (scuttling a surrendered or abandoned ship of course doesn't count).
I feel obligated to point out that despite the media frenzy of the time, the Dreadnought, while a superior battleship than the predreadnoughts, did not obsolete them. It pushed them to obsolescence much faster than they otherwise would have gone, but predreadnoughts made up the majority of battleship fleets for years after Dreadnought was launched.
And the carrier had its time in the sun as the ultimate long-ranged ship-killing device (taking over from the battleship) before missiles arrived, and even today it retains that title because a plane can carry a missile quite a long ways before launching it, specifically it can carry it over a task force's radar horizon meaning that the carrier retains the longest-ranged awareness and strike capability of any warship. But smaller ones with just missiles and not planes are cheaper and can be in more places and so they have a place in naval doctrine as well.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 04:04:37 pm
Ark Royal - Sunk by a German submarine
Audacity - Sunk by a German submarine
Avenger - Sunk by a German submarine
Courageous - German submarine
Dasher - Internal explosion
Eagle - German submarine
Glorious - German battleships
Hermes - Japanese aircrafts
I guess Aircraft carriers were made obsolete by submarines back in WW2
Post by: Madman198237 on August 19, 2023, 04:25:23 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2023, 04:40:05 pm
Your use of a list of British aircraft carriers and the inherent limited spectrum of threats and uses of a carrier in the North Atlantic and North Sea infuriates me and yet I'm pretty sure you're making a sarcastic point in agreement with me lol.
Sadly, Japan lost only about half of its aircraft carriers to submarines, which wouldn't be as impressive.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 19, 2023, 05:01:25 pm
American ASW was about average throughout the war, we used a lot more carriers than anybody else, and we lost a fair few. Primarily to hostile air attack. And Japanese subs famously (and wrongly) tried to target only warships because that earned them more honor back home...yet air attack remained the cause of most carrier losses, by far.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 19, 2023, 07:37:36 pm
not being used in the War in Ukraine to discuss Ukraine's Naval Drones. They kick ass.
You may continue your hypothetical discussions now.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 20, 2023, 12:36:21 am
Post by: Starver on August 20, 2023, 05:41:15 am
There are very few "one trick pony is all you need"s in warfare. Roadside IEDs may represent a major and quite awkward threat to conventional forces in assymetrical warfare, but the forces employing them need to have guys with AK47s willing to put the oar in. Air-power may make for a useful tool to extend naval operations, but you still need the other ship-types. Even in the age of nukes, and potential MAD, there was still necessary thought as to how (surviving) forces would operate between and beyond the nuclear exchanges.
Agincourt didn't actually make knights obselete (arguably, through iterations of gradual change in armour levels/types, the horse-charge survived until at least WW2 - and I have an inkling even later) and Russian hypersonic missiles clearly aren't preventing the need for hand-to-hand trench fighting. Balances may change, but 'new' elements to warfare are wedges, gradually adjusting the effectiveness of a particular leg to any given combat scenario.
And USVs, via various tos-and-fros in popularity, practicality and implementation are clearly the latest iteration of what started(?) in antiquity as the Fire Ship. A bit more subtle than a burning hulk, bit more long ranged than a torpedo and a bit more 'humanitarian' to its operators than the Kaiten of the Japanese. An amount of cross-polination between other platforms (guided missiles, in the air, the Goliath Tank-like solutions for the ground) and more ad-hoc solutions. Definitely very effective. Doesn't render an otherwise conventional navy obsolete, especially with the presumed failure rate[1], but useful. Expect to see more examples of this generation of the meme be deployed[2] by others, now that it has shown itself as a mature (or at least very capable adescent) example of this generation of the concept.
Darnit. This was supposed to be a quick pointing out of the "-in-depth" importance, but I drifted around quite a lot. I cut a few of my example paragraphs, as overkill, perhaps ought to have cut more/differently/all of it.
[1] Loss of success, more than waste of resources, I think it might be best to think of it - given that it seems 'easy' enough just to try again with the next produced units - though obviously it is a finite resource with replenishment limits.... But, as it is clearly effective enough to worry the Russians, like most(/all?) military elements even the failures (or the mere possibility of being out there, even when it isn't) serve a tactical purpose of their own.
[2] Surprised not to have seen whatever-the-Russians-have-had, yet, as their own pre-conflict speculative arms development. Someone in every major military power (and probably minor, and likely a number of non-state-actors) will have considered something of parity/equivalence. Amazing that 'any missile, of any generation they have' is being sent against Ukraine but the similar can't be said for the maritime domain. The lack of them is quite interesting, in fact, whichever one(s) of the (at least) three separate reasons it might be down to, that immediately come to mind.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 20, 2023, 06:18:46 am
Tank will be obsolete when and only when there is something that can replace them in their role and the only plausible thing is that it may be - tanks but unmanned.https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Literature/Bolo
Post by: Strongpoint on August 20, 2023, 08:08:03 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 10:42:30 am
Yes, those drones are cool. And I am sure they, as a cost-effective tool, made all existing naval vessels obsolete. It is how it works, right?No. I said a tool becomes obsolete in a specific role when it, not some other thing, is no longer cost-effective to deploy in that role. When it's no longer worth making any more for a purpose. This directly relates to how, as I said, tank echelons squaring off against each other are obsolete, but tanks live on as fire support.
Honestly, I've accepted that neither of you get what I'm trying to say, because all your counterarguments are talking about something completely unrelated from my perspective, and that this is my fault somehow for apparently talking in moon language, so I'm not going to keep pushing on it.
There are very few "one trick pony is all you need"s in warfare.
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Agincourt didn't actually make knights obselete (arguably, through iterations of gradual change in armour levels/types, the horse-charge survived until at least WW2 - and I have an inkling even later) and Russian hypersonic missiles clearly aren't preventing the need for hand-to-hand trench fighting. Balances may change, but 'new' elements to warfare are wedges, gradually adjusting the effectiveness of a particular leg to any given combat scenario.Yeah, see, both of these appear to be directed toward my position, but neither of them were what I was saying in the slightest. I don't really understand what extra words I was supposed to use that I somehow missed. I raised this conversation with some other friends who immediately understood my meaning, so I guess this is some freakish dialectal difference.
The technological and strategic milieu that developed in and due to the battle of Agincourt did make certain roles and tactics obsolete, though.
Oh yeah, also:
[2] Surprised not to have seen whatever-the-Russians-have-had, yet, as their own pre-conflict speculative arms development. Someone in every major military power (and probably minor, and likely a number of non-state-actors) will have considered something of parity/equivalence. Amazing that 'any missile, of any generation they have' is being sent against Ukraine but the similar can't be said for the maritime domain. The lack of them is quite interesting, in fact, whichever one(s) of the (at least) three separate reasons it might be down to, that immediately come to mind.My understanding is that Russia had mostly been focusing on its blue-water navy in relation to its pretensions as an international great power, and the black sea was kind of a sideshow, both in terms of fleets and undersea vessels. The Montreux convention means that they're stuck with what they had based there already and anything they can build there now.
Post by: Starver on August 20, 2023, 11:24:08 am
Yeah, see, both of these appear to be directed toward my position, but neither of them were what I was saying in the slightest.Not really replying to/against you, as I hadn't really noted which people were asserting which, just responding to the hubbub bouncing both ways. But I wasn't replying-with-quote against any exact statements.
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My understanding is that Russia had mostly been focusing on its blue-water navy in relation to its pretensions as an international great power, and the black sea was kind of a sideshow, both in terms of fleets and undersea vessels. The Montreux convention means that they're stuck with what they had based there already and anything they can build there now.I'm not sure that'd stop them deploying "satnav controlled, jetski-powered TNT-packed kayaks", if they had them. And you'd think they would. I mean, they can still get things to the Moon! (...if not then land them safely. ROFL.)
A little mystery, is all I'm saying. We may see what they can/can't/do do later, but right now it appears not available to them. Or they're being extra sneaky about it.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 20, 2023, 11:34:53 am
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This directly relates to how, as I said, tank echelons squaring off against each other are obsolete, but tanks live on as fire support.
I actually don't understand what you are talking about. I have an impression that you have played too much WoT or something like that and misunderstand how tanks were used.
Tanks exist as fire support since day 1. Heavy tanks for fire support that can move to enemy lines and make holes in them and lighter tanks to have mobile fast fire support that can exploit holes in enemy defense OR quickly patch holes in your lines and counterattack. MBTs combined the roles of light and heavy tanks.
It is their only reason for existence since day one. Tank echelons squaring off against each other is not really a thing, tank-on-tank action always was a minor part of wars*. A minority of tanks were lost to other tanks. Especially, if you don't count tank destroyers as tanks.
*Desert terrain may be an exception. But then let us wait for another Israeli-Arab war to see what changed in the most tank-friendly theater possible.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 20, 2023, 11:57:21 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 12:01:22 pm
I actually don't understand what you are talking about. I have an impression that you have played too much WoT or something like that and misunderstand how tanks were used.I don't even know what that is. I don't really care for video games.
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Tanks exist as fire support since day 1.Yes. I'm not sure what your point is. I have never said that this is some kind of later development. I said that, out of two particular ways that tanks have been used, one effectively stopped existing, while the other did not.
Tank-on-tank battles had indeed been "a thing" in both WWI and WWII, where it was certainly important. It has continued to be "a thing" to some degree or another in every war between roughly comparably armored enemies since. It is not the only way that tanks are used. Nobody ever said it was. What I'm arguing is that it seems to be central to American (and therefore NATO) tank doctrine since perhaps around Desert Storm, probably because that desert terrain you mention is exactly where American military interests had predominantly been focused for the last thirty years or so. The result is that our increasingly fat brick tanks aren't doing so hot under new conditions, which you may have noticed, and so a change is needed. This is why lighter tanks, which are mostly older tanks, have survived noticeably better in Ukraine, and why Ukrainians have been welding grilles onto them and in some cases even removing superfluous armor - because no machine can do everything at once, and different measures are needed in different situations.
Spin, the problem is that every time you try to make a point your example is patently incorrect.Considering that you haven't even been keeping track successfully of what examples are actually mine - I never said anything about molotovs - I don't really care.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 20, 2023, 12:15:52 pm
The heavyweight Western MBT is in fact fifty years old with Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams starting design in the 70s and both being very heavily protected. Obviously this is just a bit before Desert Storm, because the concern then was the masses of Russian tanks and IFVs and other threats that would face them as they did their job on the prospective battlefields of Germany, and elsewhere in the world.
Tanks killing tanks are doing infantry support, funnily enough. We've largely moved direct-fire artillery pieces (field guns) and emplaced machineguns out of bunkers and into mobile armored platforms, so the job of killing hard targets that an infantryman often can't now requires you to kill hostile tanks. And has for the last one hundred and seven years.
Why are light tanks surviving better in Ukraine? They're not, there's just a lot of them and they've been assigned to units that are A. not as good at intel security and thus post their vehicles and battles and such onto social media (where they are thus available to be seen) whereas the heavier, better-equipped line units notably don't B. not facing frontline service in the deadliest areas as much as the aforementioned regulars.
In no way is a T-55 superior to an Abrams, Leo 2, T-72, etc. in any battlefield role; the superior FCS, armor, firepower, communications, visibility, active defenses, etc. of the later models makes them superior in every role a tank can fill. But if you've GOT an Abrams or a Leo 2, you're going to send it first into the deadliest part of the fight, because you need some tank to do it and you'd darn well better believe that a Leo 2 is more likely to accomplish the mission than a T-55. Its size isn't even a huge advantage because it's got a bigger thermal (and noise) signature than the turbine-engined Abrams and thermals are the principle detection mechanism in this day and age. I suppose unless you're Russia who doesn't have many thermals and minimal capacity to produce them but, well, so much the not-actually-a-pity.
You replied to the statement about molotovs with the following
They were cost-effective then because nobody had figured that out yet. They aren't now because people have.which certainly makes it sound like you believe that cheap AT weapons like Molotovs make tanks cost-ineffective. Hence the mention of Molotovs in a reply.
I have very much been keeping track of this discussion.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 20, 2023, 12:45:50 pm
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This is why lighter tanks, which are mostly older tanks, have survived noticeably better in Ukraine, and why Ukrainians have been welding grilles onto them and in some cases even removing superfluous armor
Wait... What data makes you think that older and\or smaller tanks survive noticeably better? They don't. Sure, in the case of Russia, there are fewer of them lost because... there are fewer of them, they are kept away from the frontlines filling reserve roles, and they are less of a priority target. And Russia is generally losing fewer tanks nowadays than when they moved in with their best tanks.
Even Russians Generals are not incompetent enough to send a bunch of T-62s to try to break through a fortified defense line.
And, looking at the known losses, Ukraine lost 15 Leopard IIs including damaged. And 0 Challengers II. Abramses are yet to arrive. In the same time, there are hundreds of T64s, our main pre-war tanks, destroyed.
As for field modifications of various kinds, it is completely normal and even typical. Tank crews of WW2 did many funny things to their tanks too.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 12:48:52 pm
The way you expressed "tanks as fire support" versus "tanks as tank killers" was phrased as to outright say that tanks were first designed to fight tanks and later picked up an anti-infantry role.As a general rule, I do not intend to say things I don't literally say in so many words.
I hope it's obvious that that wouldn't even make sense because tanks would have to exist before you'd want to invent tanks to fight them.
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You replied to the statement about molotovs with the followingAgain, if I didn't literally say it, you should not infer that I meant it.They were cost-effective then because nobody had figured that out yet. They aren't now because people have.which certainly makes it sound like you believe that cheap AT weapons like Molotovs make tanks cost-ineffective. Hence the mention of Molotovs in a reply.
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Obviously this is just a bit before Desert StormYou seem to have this weird problem where if I say "at least by X, Y was commonplace", you think I'm also saying "before X, Y didn't exist". It's entirely consistent with my position and expectations that very heavy, fat tanks would have been produced before that, for the same reason of expecting protracted tank battles; it's just not the time period I chose to comment on. Because Strongpoint had cited desert warfare specifically, so I wanted to make a point about that specifically. I get the impression that you would fail that puzzle with the four cards with letters and numbers.
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Why are light tanks surviving better in Ukraine? They're not, there's just a lot of them and they've been assigned to units that are A. not as good at intel security and thus post their vehicles and battles and such onto social media (where they are thus available to be seen) whereas the heavier, better-equipped line units notably don't B. not facing frontline service in the deadliest areas as much as the aforementioned regulars.This is not consistent with the information I've heard, which I have good reason to believe is accurate. The information I have access to is specifically that lighter tanks are surviving better "pound-for-pound", by which I mean, adjusted for equivalent circumstances, and as a proportion of the number used. I acknowledge that I can't prove this, but my impression was that this is widely known.
Battlefield roles also include important details like "actually making it to the battlefield", "functioning on the terrain in front of you", and "being able to source enough of them in the first place". Given that, talking about what is "superior" is kind of a category error. You deal with what you have. Importantly, I never said that a T-55 is superior to any other tank, at all - the only time I mentioned them is when I said, sardonically, that if I had to choose a tank to get blown up, I'd choose the T-55 because at least it didn't cost as much or waste as much resources.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 20, 2023, 12:59:28 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 01:05:22 pm
You know, I could keep replying and tearing apart the statements you are making and critiquing how if you don't want things read into your words maybe you shouldn't spell those things out directly in your words but we've hit ad hominem so have a nice, incorrect day.That's still not what ad hominem means.
Anyway, I'd also like to throw out that it's very common for historians to say, now, that the Sherman was the most important tank of WWII, especially compared to much heavier and higher-maintenance German tanks, because they were better able to deal with the actual conditions they were actually used in, including, crucially, the fact that the US could make a lot MORE of them. It's not like I'm saying anything new here.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 20, 2023, 01:10:12 pm
American historians, you mean.You know, I could keep replying and tearing apart the statements you are making and critiquing how if you don't want things read into your words maybe you shouldn't spell those things out directly in your words but we've hit ad hominem so have a nice, incorrect day.That's still not what ad hominem means.
Anyway, I'd also like to throw out that it's very common for historians to say, now, that the Sherman was the most important tank of WWII, especially compared to much heavier and higher-maintenance German tanks, because they were better able to deal with the actual conditions they were actually used in, including, crucially, the fact that the US could make a lot MORE of them. It's not like I'm saying anything new here.
Russian historians say almost the same thing, except regarding the T-34 tank.
It helps to remember we have more than Americans in this World.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 01:11:49 pm
American historians, you mean.I actually don't, I last heard it from a Brit.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 20, 2023, 01:42:43 pm
You know, I could keep replying and tearing apart the statements you are making and critiquing how if you don't want things read into your words maybe you shouldn't spell those things out directly in your words but we've hit ad hominem so have a nice, incorrect day.That's still not what ad hominem means.
Anyway, I'd also like to throw out that it's very common for historians to say, now, that the Sherman was the most important tank of WWII, especially compared to much heavier and higher-maintenance German tanks, because they were better able to deal with the actual conditions they were actually used in, including, crucially, the fact that the US could make a lot MORE of them. It's not like I'm saying anything new here.
Well. Germany was outproduced. If the USA would go for their own Tigers and Panthers it still would be outproduced. And if Germany would opt for just churning out Panzer III\IV they still wouldn't win the war. So there is no definitive answer of which approach was actually better.
Nothing in the Russian-Ukrainian war points out that the Russian approach with smaller cheaper tanks is better in any way, shape or form in the year 2023.
Post by: Lidku on August 20, 2023, 03:35:01 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 20, 2023, 09:08:17 pm
This is not consistent with the information I've heard, which I have good reason to believe is accurate. The information I have access to is specifically that lighter tanks are surviving better "pound-for-pound", by which I mean, adjusted for equivalent circumstances, and as a proportion of the number used. I acknowledge that I can't prove this, but my impression was that this is widely known.
Maybe if you post your sources it would be easier to explain to you why this is absolutely, categorically, wrong. What you're arguing is something that theoreticians believed roughly sixty years ago, but which was abandoned after only a single vehicle generation (represented primarily by the Leopard 1) because exercises and reports from combat zones (primarily late-era Vietnam and various wars in the Middle East) showed that older vehicles with heavier armor routinely had greater chances to accomplish their mission than lighter ones. They were also much more likely to be able to be repaired and returned to service if knocked out, and the crew was more likely to survive.
Of the more modern, heavier vehicles that have gone into action, far fewer have been knocked out in proportional terms, not just absolute. Of those that have been knocked out, the vast majority have been repaired and returned to service rather than ceasing to exist.
Your comparison to the M4 Sherman (or T-34) is fundamentally flawed, because it was not a lighter tank compared to the main German equivalents. The Panzer IV was of similar size, and mostly struggled due to be obsolescent even at the start of the war (this is not Germany's fault, tank technology just advanced ludicrously fast by then and the Sherman was about four years newer. The Panzer V "Panther" was heavier, but the generally poor (yes, poor - the early engagements heavily favored the Panther because of the terrain, but that did not last) performance was due to significant design flaws*, not the size. Eliminate those, and the comparison looks far worse. The Tigers generally were irrelevant in this comparison, as they were not a M4/T-34 analog. They were the equivalent of the KV/IS series, or the British Churchills, primarily intended as heavy assault vehicles to punch through a particularly tough defensive line rather than outflanking it.
*For the interested, the big flaws were pathetic side armor (prewar AT rifles could punch through it), an excessively large gun (it was capable of punching through almost Allied armor at a distance of a kilometer, and most at 2, but such shots are so extremely rare that having that range is essentially wasted - it would be better to settle for punching through most armor at 500 meters and enjoy a much lighter weapon) that fired excessively large and heavy ammunition (rate of fire was drastically slowed, and the loader fatigued easily), extremely unreliable transmission gear (though not as bad as the morbidly obese Tiger II), and absolutely terrible visibility for the gunner (he only had a telescopic sight, while a Sherman (or Panzer IV!) gunner had a wide angle periscope, which allowed him to readily find a marked target instead of having to be coached by the commander),
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 09:57:29 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 20, 2023, 10:05:47 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 10:13:50 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 20, 2023, 10:44:04 pm
Absolutely legit proof that tanks are not outdated
Post by: King Zultan on August 21, 2023, 02:41:38 am
Post by: hector13 on August 21, 2023, 02:45:15 am
Post by: Egan_BW on August 21, 2023, 07:18:13 am
You know what will make tanks outdated, tanks with legs.And then the mechs will be made obsolete by mechs with tank treads (https://youtu.be/6miBNuSI1e8).
Post by: martinuzz on August 22, 2023, 02:45:56 am
In other news, yesteday, Moscow had to shut down its 3 largest airports due to drone attacks.
Go Ukraine! Disrupt Russia's civilian economy! Let no airliner dare go to Russia anymore.
Post by: Lidku on August 22, 2023, 04:35:22 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on August 22, 2023, 05:26:11 pm
Why hasn't Russia adapted to fielding somesort of anti-drone defense? The fact that Ukraine is doing so much damage with drones this war is absolutely crazy..
Doing so is easier said than done. Russia presumably already has more than a few anti-drone systems in place, we're just hearing about the ones that don't get shot down. Kind of like how IEDs kept blowing up convoys and checkpoints in the Middle East, it's hard to catch all of them even when you know to expect them.
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 22, 2023, 06:23:00 pm
Notably, there was a recent news item about them putting up new drone jammers around the Moscow area, so it seems they are doing more.Why hasn't Russia adapted to fielding somesort of anti-drone defense? The fact that Ukraine is doing so much damage with drones this war is absolutely crazy..
Doing so is easier said than done. Russia presumably already has more than a few anti-drone systems in place, we're just hearing about the ones that don't get shot down. Kind of like how IEDs kept blowing up convoys and checkpoints in the Middle East, it's hard to catch all of them even when you know to expect them.
Anti-drone defense is hard, though, at least if you also want to be able to use your own technology in the same place.
Post by: Starver on August 22, 2023, 08:43:54 pm
Of course, relying purely (and credulously) upon satellite positioning is probably not what the systems involve do. Some inertial self-tracking probably sanity-checks the signal (may even take over, with dead-reckoning, if it detects the correlations going screwy), and if the platform involved has two-way communications with any sort of video then there's probably a way for the experienced operator to make their own real-time decisions that can deal with anything but either physical interception or tight-beam electronic jamming/frying. (This seems to be how the USVs operate, but UAVs may have less payload fraction available for the necessary equipment redundancy.)
Minds more knowledgable than mine will have some idea exactly what measures/counter-measures/counter-counter-measures/etc are employed by all parties involved, but it'll surely be an arms-race on its own as circumstances dynamically evolve.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 22, 2023, 08:46:00 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 22, 2023, 08:53:43 pm
Post by: martinuzz on August 23, 2023, 02:30:54 am
Moscow has again shut down it's airspace. All flights have been cancelled until further notice, after a nightly explosion in the centre of Moscow.
According to Moscow's mayor, a drone hit a building under construction in the centre of Moscow.
(on the melody of smoke weed every day)
Bomb Moscow every day
Post by: King Zultan on August 23, 2023, 04:38:16 am
Post by: martinuzz on August 23, 2023, 06:12:30 am
On the other side of the Donau river lies NATO member Romania, at 100 meters distance.
If only one of those 9 Shahed drones (5 were intercepted, 4 got through defenses) had missed target by 100 meters it could have been WW3.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 06:15:22 am
Tonight's attack on Ukraine's grain infrastructure was only 100 meters away from article 5.
On the other side of the Donau river lies NATO member Romania, at 100 meters distance.
If only one of those 9 Shahed drones had missed target by 100 meters it could have been WW3.
No, it would have been deeply concerned NATO
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 12:06:12 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 23, 2023, 12:30:16 pm
Reports that he was on board, shot down by air defenses north of Moscow, though that comes from Wagner.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 12:35:18 pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733Yeah, there are many claims that Prigozhin and\or Utkin were on the plane but no solid confirmation yet.
Reports that he was on board, shot down by air defenses north of Moscow, though that comes from Wagner.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 23, 2023, 12:45:11 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on August 23, 2023, 12:46:57 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 12:49:21 pm
BTW, it may not be Putin's order but a plain, simple revenge from someone in the Russian Air Force.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 23, 2023, 01:00:08 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 23, 2023, 01:24:33 pm
'Bout the only thing surprising about it is how blatant it was, and that it took this long to happen, though...
Post by: martinuzz on August 23, 2023, 02:13:46 pm
He was accused of treason and has not seen or heard from again since the Wagner mutiny.
I wonder what will become of all those Wagner troops in Africa if their leader and sponsor is gone.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 02:19:08 pm
Post by: martinuzz on August 23, 2023, 02:28:42 pm
It turned around after taking off from Moscow as well.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 02:40:33 pm
New York Post chooses... hm... interesting words.
Post by: martinuzz on August 23, 2023, 03:34:43 pm
I think Washington has a equivalent, where the Washington Post is the actual newspaper, and the Washington Times is the tabloid haha
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2023, 10:48:37 pm
Post by: Frumple on August 23, 2023, 11:21:23 pm
Reality doesn't have to write its characters with an eye for verisimilitude or competence... in some ways it's for the better, probably, but on the other hand it makes a lot of things much more banal than they could be.
Post by: martinuzz on August 24, 2023, 12:55:43 am
Edit: some Wagner Telegram channels are already considering annother armed march on Moscow, full aware that stopping halfway is not an option.
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 24, 2023, 02:26:34 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2023, 02:31:07 am
His dead man switch could be Russia losing all influence in Africa, as Wagner troops join whichever islamic terror group pays better.
Edit: some Wagner Telegram channels are already considering annother armed march on Moscow, full aware that stopping halfway is not an option.
They have no more heavy weaponry, top 2 and several other members of their leadership dead, there is no surprise factor.
Don't count on it.
Most likely fate of Wagner mercenaries is being absorbed by various other Russian PMC. Mercs are mercs
Post by: Ganondworf on August 24, 2023, 02:46:35 am
Post by: hector13 on August 24, 2023, 02:52:18 am
Whatever goodwill he has with Putin ended after his… I don’t even think you can call fit a rebellion. Anyone wanting him out of the way this has tacit approval to accidentally shoot down his plane.
I don’t think I’m alone in wondering what actually took it so long.
Post by: scriver on August 24, 2023, 02:56:48 am
I don’t think I’m alone in wondering what actually took it so long.
Might just be that it was the time it took to get him into a false sense of security and thinking he had gotten away with it.
Post by: martinuzz on August 24, 2023, 03:10:15 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2023, 03:48:00 am
Post by: martinuzz on August 24, 2023, 03:50:29 am
Imagine what they can do with HARM missiles once they get F16s
Post by: King Zultan on August 24, 2023, 04:20:39 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 24, 2023, 06:52:07 am
I can't believe how stupid Prigozhin was, if this story is anywhere near true. I mean, to do all the stuff he did in the past he did not have to be highly intelligent, but I always thought him to be quite cunning.No matter how shrewd or cunning someone can be, no one is above making mistakes, especially when under stressful conditions and desperation
Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.I know there are Ukrainian commandos trained by Royal Marines who have been raiding along the Dneiper river (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/11/army-ukraine-boats-attacks-dnipro-russian-raids-commandos/), but raiding Crimea is a whole next level achievement. If true this would also mark the second time Ukrainian commandos successfully raided Crimean bases (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-shelling-kills-11-in-dnipropetrovsk-region-as-questions-remain-over-explosions-deep-inside-russian-occupied-crimea-12669644). Hope those guys survive the war because if they do they'll be able to form the seed of some proper Ukrainian special boat service for delivering special boat operations :]
Quote from: https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2023/august/11/230811-ukraine-marines-training
Trainees came from a variety of backgrounds from civilian volunteers with no prior military experience to those who’ve transferred from other sections within the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some having already been engaged in combat on the front line.Seriously impressive at the broad range of Ukrainians undergoing some of the most intense and gruelling training to pull off some of the most nuts marine raids of the 21st century
Post by: Great Order on August 24, 2023, 09:56:24 am
Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.One suggestion was that this was one of those "You can die, or we can kill your family. Your choice" and they went with suicide-by-missile.
Post by: Frumple on August 24, 2023, 11:45:36 am
The kind of folks that would present you with that kind of choice... they're probably not going to leave loose ends once you're gone. So it's less "die or we kill your family" and more "do you want to be dead before or after we kill your family?" At least with after, you have some chance to enact some degree of retribution :-\
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 24, 2023, 12:38:00 pm
it's never struck me as a choice you can actually make, 'cause once you're dead there's little to nothing stopping them from killing your family anyway.
Leonine bargains are just how Moscow rolls, it seems. And figures even their own pawns would forget how those work. :P
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 24, 2023, 03:30:49 pm
Well guess this is the end of wagner, don't get why that Prigozjin guy stayed in Russia after all this.One suggestion was that this was one of those "You can die, or we can kill your family. Your choice" and they went with suicide-by-missile.
Six theories
1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.
2. Russian air defences saw a civilian (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007) airliner and decided to blow it up (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17)
3. Prigozhin wasn't on that plane and faked his death as part of an agreement with Putin to allow Putin to "deal with him" whilst Prigozhin is sipping mojitos in the bahamas and making albums with Tupac in Serbia.
4. Prigozhin faked his own death in order to lower Putin's guard and initiate his metal gear storyline
5. Prigozhin is as cunning and intelligent as you'd expect for a cocktail sausage maker cum warlord, so when ricin-stabbing polonium-tea giving novichok window friending Putin told him "nah it's cool brah half measures never backfire" he took Putin's word at it, because he and Putin are buddies. Honestly not that impossible. Especially since removing Sergei Surovikin, who was a suspected Prigozhin sympathiser and in charge of Russian air defences... One day before Russian air defences are suspected of shooting down Prigozhin, is a smoking gun.
6. Putin was genuinely sincere about his truce with Prigozhin, but one of the many warlords and defence ministers Prigozhin pissed off took it upon themselves to eliminate Prigozhin when the opportunity presented it, which puts Putin in a bind. Also possible, given that this could be someone taking advantage of Putin dismissing Surovikin, and the lack of a pre-prepared media spin or coherent narrative immediately after Prigozhin's death is pretty suspicious if Putin had truly planned this out over two months. It is a significant possibility this even surprised Putin, and he just has to own up to it because no one would believe him if he said it wasn't him anyways.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2023, 05:14:39 pm
A good way to determine what happened is to wait and see if Russians will allow Embraer to examine the wreck. If not it will confirm a SAM missile.
Post by: Starver on August 24, 2023, 10:32:41 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 25, 2023, 12:30:27 am
Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Meanwhile, this morning, Ukrainian special forces raided Crimea destroying a radar station. I think it is those Ukrainian marines that spent some time in Britain training such raids.I know there are Ukrainian commandos trained by Royal Marines who have been raiding along the Dneiper river (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/11/army-ukraine-boats-attacks-dnipro-russian-raids-commandos/), but raiding Crimea is a whole next level achievement. If true this would also mark the second time Ukrainian commandos successfully raided Crimean bases (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-shelling-kills-11-in-dnipropetrovsk-region-as-questions-remain-over-explosions-deep-inside-russian-occupied-crimea-12669644). Hope those guys survive the war because if they do they'll be able to form the seed of some proper Ukrainian special boat service for delivering special boat operations :]Quote from: https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2023/august/11/230811-ukraine-marines-trainingTrainees came from a variety of backgrounds from civilian volunteers with no prior military experience to those who’ve transferred from other sections within the Armed Forces of Ukraine – some having already been engaged in combat on the front line.Seriously impressive at the broad range of Ukrainians undergoing some of the most intense and gruelling training to pull off some of the most nuts marine raids of the 21st century
Post by: MorleyDev on August 25, 2023, 05:02:40 am
6. Putin was genuinely sincere about his truce with Prigozhin, but one of the many warlords and defence ministers Prigozhin pissed off took it upon themselves to eliminate Prigozhin when the opportunity presented it, which puts Putin in a bind. Also possible, given that this could be someone taking advantage of Putin dismissing Surovikin, and the lack of a pre-prepared media spin or coherent narrative immediately after Prigozhin's death is pretty suspicious if Putin had truly planned this out over two months. It is a significant possibility this even surprised Putin, and he just has to own up to it because no one would believe him if he said it wasn't him anyways.
FSB: "Putin, Prigozhin is dead."
Putin: "Ahhh, so the poisoned potato found it's mark I see."
FSB: "....Poisoned whatnow?"
Putin: "...What was that explosion just now?"
Post by: Great Order on August 25, 2023, 06:38:17 am
1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 25, 2023, 07:10:45 am
I've also seen some pictures supposedly of the crash site, where the wreckage is riddled with the sort of fragmentation impacts you would expect from a missile warhead, but I don't know if that's authentic or not.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 25, 2023, 07:16:55 am
Eternal memory indeed.
Post by: King Zultan on August 27, 2023, 09:38:09 am
Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.Theories like that are always the funniest ones, love reading shit like those.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 27, 2023, 11:08:26 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 27, 2023, 11:18:03 am
I am offended that there is no "It was Ukrainian intelligence that planted a bomb" theory... After all, it is what Russian propaganda seems to hint at.I heard there was a funny interview with a duma representative where they asked him who did it and he said "Ukrainians obviously" and the interviewer then asked him "how are Russian defences so weak can Ukrainians operate with impunity inside Russia" and he immediately began to panic
A good way to determine what happened is to wait and see if Russians will allow Embraer to examine the wreck. If not it will confirm a SAM missile.
FSB: "Putin, Prigozhin is dead."Gerasimov's assassin looking panicked as he sits behind watching Prigozhin eat Putin's poisoned potato whilst Shoigu's missile races towards them all
Putin: "Ahhh, so the poisoned potato found it's mark I see."
FSB: "....Poisoned whatnow?"
Putin: "...What was that explosion just now?"
Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Not least to say Ukrainian combat experience is of a kind NATO doesn't have a lot in. How to fight a conventional land war with limited air cover
Not too impossible, given the state of Russian aerospace industry. The plane doing erratic maneuvres (rapid ascents & descents) before the crash, and the video of the plane clearly missing bits of itself before the crash, both suggest they tried to dodge a missile and then got hit. If a 100 oligarchs fall out of a window, one of them is bound to be an accident :P1. His shitty aeroplane spontaneously crashed and died due to lack of spare parts and shitty maintenance quality.Ah yes, the "JFK wasn't assassinated, his head just did that" type theory.
Meanwhile, Russia started leveling graves of Wagner fighters. - https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1695045804916985974Criminals to mercenaries to ghosts to war criminals to war heroes to traitors to patriots to redacted
Eternal memory indeed.
Keeping track of what you're supposed to believe on any given day must be exhausting in Russia
Post by: Egan_BW on August 28, 2023, 02:39:08 am
"Why would we ever need to do that?"~Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Not least to say Ukrainian combat experience is of a kind NATO doesn't have a lot in. How to fight a conventional land war with limited air cover
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 28, 2023, 05:58:47 am
[PRC & NK looking nervously at SK]"Why would we ever need to do that?"~Even better: Those guys can form the seed of some proper NATO special boat service. Ukraine's gonna have a TON of actual combat experience to share with the West.Not least to say Ukrainian combat experience is of a kind NATO doesn't have a lot in. How to fight a conventional land war with limited air cover
Post by: Cathar on August 28, 2023, 07:43:08 am
Meanwhile, Russia started leveling graves of Wagner fighters. - https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1695045804916985974Half of me is like "that's the just reward for serving evil", and the other half yet feels a bit bad for them.
Eternal memory indeed.
Guys, just defect to the free legion, they are hiring.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 28, 2023, 10:03:42 pm
...they seem a better fit for the Russian Volunteer Corps.Meanwhile, Russia started leveling graves of Wagner fighters. - https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1695045804916985974Half of me is like "that's the just reward for serving evil", and the other half yet feels a bit bad for them.
Eternal memory indeed.
Guys, just defect to the free legion, they are hiring.
And they probably already are doing so.
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2023, 02:18:27 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 29, 2023, 05:17:20 am
Quote from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/10/wagner-convict-soldiers-return-from-ukraine-russia-mercenary-group
In interviews, those who knew Salmin said they feared running into the same man who once terrorised their home town and may now have been made untouchable by his association with Prigozhin, one of Russia’s most notorious figures.If you see the guy walking down your street a decorated war hero and you're the reason he got convicted you'd probably better start running because they may be there to kill you
“We started seeing him in town a few weeks ago,” one local resident who has known Salmin for many years told the Guardian. “He is a dangerous man, we all know what he did to his friend. I told my kids not to run around alone in the coming days. It wasn’t just what he did to his friend, he stole from people, got in many fights and was harassing girls. He drank a lot, used drugs and was violent.”
“We don’t want such people back in Pikalevo,” said the person, who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution. “What kind of hero is he?”
...
Many fear that those being released could now seek to settle scores at home.
In 2014, Kirill Neglin of Segezha was sentenced to 12 years in prison on counts of drug dealing and domestic abuse. After a bout of heavy drinking, he repeatedly hit and kicked his wife, terrorising her both at home and then following her to their dacha, where she said she silently endured another attack because she feared for their children’s lives.
After she testified against him, Neglin issued a threat in court. “She won’t live long,” he said, according to a court transcript first reported by the independent news outlet Verstka. “Whatever sentence the court gives [me], that’s how long she has left to live.”
Post by: Strongpoint on August 29, 2023, 06:45:20 am
It must be horrible to be Russian parents and see the guy who raped your teenage daughter and killed her with 60 stabs with a knife walking down your street as a decorated war hero
Chances are that those same Russian parents will praise another similar "hero" who killed and raped a teenage daughter of other people. Empathy is unknown for those people.
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2023, 01:38:34 pm
They were considered to be Russia's top division by western military analists, but since their failure to capture Hostomel airport near Kiev, their battle readiness has dropped dramatically, and their status has been greatly demoted.
Ukrainians at the southern front: aim for the blue berets for bonus points.
Post by: heydude6 on August 29, 2023, 02:24:40 pm
hoping to halt the Ukrainian breakthrough.
Are you telling me there's a Ukrainian breakthrough? This is my first time hearing about this. I've heard the counter-offensive went badly this year.
Post by: Eric Blank on August 29, 2023, 02:36:53 pm
Post by: da_nang on August 29, 2023, 03:05:11 pm
I use quotes because of the methodically slow pace due to the minefields. The trenches are no longer viable to hold for the Russians, and the rail and highway going through Tokmak are effectively controlled by Ukrainian artillery fire. The same goes for the nearby air base.
Fog-of-war rumors suggest the next line of defense is lightly defended due to lack Russian manpower in the area. Understandably so, when Russian logistics is restricted to the coastal highway through Mariupol, or the Crimean route that has limited throughput at pontoon bridges near Henichesk and Chonhar, the Isthmus of Perekop, and what remains of the Kerch bridge. The Russian forces in the Kherson Oblast, and the Crimean land bridge are soon going to be royally fucked.
Post by: Great Order on August 29, 2023, 03:49:11 pm
Ukraine's going to have its own Zone Rouge.
Post by: Starver on August 29, 2023, 05:35:59 pm
north of the logistically-important Tokmak in the Zaporizhia Oblast.I just wanted to orientate myself, so I went to a tab upon which I have a mapping site already being visited, and zoomed out, scrolled across Europe and down towards the right bit of Ukraine. Only it looked odd.
...then, upon zooming in even further, I noted that the (open source) mapping data had been updated. Where the humungous and very obvious lake should be, there was a thin(ner) ribbon of river and vast amounts of "swampy/marshy" ground noted by the appropriate symbology. (Scrolling across, below the breached dam there was a lot more water than I recall, plus marshy areas. But not sure how 'normally' waterlogged that area was beforehand. It'd be interesting to dive into the source data and discover the diffs and old versions of the data, though, I'm sure. But everything technical I do with maps tends to be geared towards predownloaded 'current' versions, and I never thought to take and keep a snapshot when it was still the latest.)
I was a bit worried that (once I'd solved the above confusion) I wouldn't easily find Tokmak, because of translation/cyrillic issues (this view from this site defaults to local-language conventions, in its maptile imagery), but I should have known Tokmak is (pretty much) "Tokmak" even across alphabets. Though I was intrigued by the area marked just north of the main road, industrial buildings and an 'industry' area. As is usual, had to draw on my algabraic (i.e. Greek alphabet) knowledge, and a little interlingual assumption, to parse it as probably "Tokmak Solar Energy". The working out of this pleased me far more than it deserves to have. (Though I suspect the current state of the panels is... more fragmentary. I might later go to a different map-site, with photo-tiling option, and perhaps see if I'm right and/or when the most recent public satellite imagery for the area dates from.)
But I see what was meant about the rail-line there making things particularly vulnerable. My mental image of the region has been updated. I just need to switch to some good topogical and/or photo tiling data to flesh out my terrain and land-use assumptions, but I try to ration myself on that sort of random scrolling, as I can easily be hours casually tracing the route of a particular highway, waterway, abandoned railway or the edges of some national park/etc if I let myself.
(As it is, I already noted some random mid-marsh bits of land that were marked up special, which seemed to have previously been notable islands in the now depleted megareservoir. I did do my 'algebra trick' on the text, but I can't remember at the moment what I then thought I was reading. Could have been local geonymic names that essentially is "big tree island", or else even "property of <cityname> sailing club", for all I know, knowing Ukrainean for neither "tree" nor "sailing", etc, never mind any more archaic name-rootings like "-wald" in germanic. ;) )
...if you'll forgive a little diversion into the way I tend to think of these things. But then it is the emotional thread, so hopefully it's still relevent to roam a bit, perhaps to entertain you with my off-beat map-appreciation 'skills', or lack of them!
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 29, 2023, 05:55:54 pm
the rail and highway going through Tokmak are effectively controlled by Ukrainian artillery fire. The same goes for the nearby air base.I don't think this is true. The tip of the wedge is maybe 10km closer to Tokmak than before the offensive, and it's narrow too. You can't put your artillery in that area and expect it to survive.
Ukrainians seem to be committing their reserves for a push that would make a difference. But Russians have reserves too. The whole situation looks precarious.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 29, 2023, 06:05:59 pm
Spoiler: map (click to show/hide)
White lines = major entrenchments. So, it is not exactly a breakthrough yet but it is a springboard for one.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 29, 2023, 08:29:51 pm
The big issue is that everybody's expectations for what a breakthrough would look like were heavily colored by last year's collapses. Which not only were not guaranteed when they happened, but were preceded by a pretty good length of grinding stalemate most observers have forgotten.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 29, 2023, 11:37:07 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 30, 2023, 04:05:30 am
We're also seeing a major increase in the destruction of key Russian assets - artillery, air defense, etc - in ways that we wouldn't be seeing if things weren't going well for Ukraine. The decisive factor here is the extensiveness of Russian minefields, as it is extremely difficult to demine in combat conditions without proper air cover for suppression. That slows an advance significantly even if it isn't killing very many Ukrainians (there's lots of hard evidence that the newly supplied Western vehicles are living up to their design goals of crew protection - most of the ones confirmed to be knocked out had most of the crew escape, even when the vehicle was a total loss).Exactly. There is an unfair expectation that Ukraine should be able to make large sweeping gains of territory whilst also not providing them with the air cover needed to protect their tanks in order to pull off such mobile warfare. Instead, people should take note of Ukraine's priorities.
The big issue is that everybody's expectations for what a breakthrough would look like were heavily colored by last year's collapses. Which not only were not guaranteed when they happened, but were preceded by a pretty good length of grinding stalemate most observers have forgotten.
Quote from: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-growing-counter-battery-advantage
The emphasis on counter-battery fire could well be part of a shift in tactics as the counteroffensive continues. The New York Times reported Saturday that Ukraine changed tactics after the first two weeks of combat saw “as much of 20 percent of the weaponry it sent to the battlefield was damaged or destroyed.”This is reflected in complaints on Russian telegram from soldiers complaining about the effectiveness of Ukrainian counter-battery fire and the lack of interest from Russian high command that this is just getting worse. One thing to remember is the Ukrainian leadership is very cognisant of how the war will end. It's entirely possible for the Ukrainians to fully liberate all of the country and still have to keep fighting. The only thing that will truly end the war in Ukraine's favour is;
Attrition rates slowed as commanders adapted in the ensuing weeks, but the story noted losses have decreased because the counteroffensive itself has not progressed rapidly.
While accurate strikes on Russian artillery do not translate immediately into territorial gains, it fits with shaping the battlefield in what has become a war of attrition in some respects. Ukrainian ground forces can better exploit weak points in the Russian lines when Moscow has degraded artillery capabilities to effectively respond and suppress them. With 155mm cluster munitions having arrived in Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles, this artillery disparity is set to only increase. In terms of counter-battery fire, these weapons can also allow for saving prized guided munitions to quickly kill enemy batteries with high certainty.
1. Russian political leadership loses the will to prosecute this war effort.
2. Russian military loses the capability to prosecute this war effort.
With both feeding into one another.
One can imagine if WWI was to happen today the news would be full of stories about how SPRING OFFENSIVE SOON, WAR WILL BE OVER BY CHRISTMAS
Basically for 120 years the news has been overly obssessed with territory and dramatic map charts, whilst ignoring the consequential things like equipment losses. Things like Bakhmut were weird media obsessions, but the amount of cohesive brigades the Russians turned into disorganised remnants in it was:
Quote from: https://wartranslated.com/russian-volunteer-murz-on-why-russia-is-not-ready-to-defend-ukrainian-winter-offensive/
In other sectors of the front, the Russian command does not need such a goading, as it voluntarily drives to slaughter the last remnants of the infantry, no longer very combat-ready due to previous losses. The Russian military has an incredible talent for turning any village with a couple of landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their own, not enemy, units are ground. Why? Yes, because “BUSV”, the Combat Charter of the Ground Forces, these people do not open and read almost ever. And more than any “Javelins” and “HIMARS”, more than any “NATO satellite groups” fighting against us is the Combat Charter of our own Ground Forces, on which our valiant command wanted to shit. And ukrops [Ukrainians] – they read it and creatively processed it, taking into account the available new technologies.So take with a pinch of salt every time the news is all "offensive now??? Now... Offensive? 10 metres of land taken... Ukraine/Russia is over?"
In the text about radio communications, I described the main problem of command and control in the Russian army, due to which the army cannot really advance, cannot maneuver, and cannot even fully repel enemy attacks. Nothing larger than the “remnants of a motorized rifle battalion” in the RF Armed Forces can be controlled as a single organism. And, of course, in this situation, the battalion commanders and company commanders of these “remnants” become well-deserved heroes, who, if possible, drag all the shit on their own backs. Although more often, alas, they don’t. And they are buried with their subordinates when, after half a dozen assaults, each organized worse than the previous one, we still capture another piece of land and collect their rotten remains.
From the fact that the Russian army can do nothing except for, bleeding, capture another village while surrendering a district center or an entire region on the other flank, the Russian army made an amazing conclusion – let’s take more villages! And arranged the maximum possible Verduns along the entire front line, including the very infamous Pavlovka in the DPR. And, of course, Bakhmut. How could it be without it? Why not kill the last remnants of combat-ready infantry at it? It’s not possible at all. These fucking bastards need to get positive motives for the news somewhere! Here, we freed another 100 meters of such and such village. And whoever is the first to report on the complete liberation of the village gets an order.
*EDIT
I'm reminded of the battle for Goose Green. Where the British army wished to bypass this hill occupied by Argentinian forces in the falklands war, as capturing the hill wasn't necessary for accomplishing their aims; isolating it would suffice. But the British government wanted an early propaganda win to shore up public support so they ordered for the hill to be taken. BBC news announced that this attack was going to take place, so the Argentinians were aware the attack was coming. This resulted in the death of the British Major in charge of the operation. Afterwards a lot of investigations were done into "was capturing this hill really necessary/worth it?" and all of them can be summed up as "no but..."
Post by: Strongpoint on August 30, 2023, 12:25:47 pm
"The lawyer said that during the process of bringing Igor from Lefortovo to the court, he was in a paddy wagon with Ukrainian citizens accused of war crimes in Mariupol.
I believe that this type of practice poses a potential threat to my husband. I regard this as criminal negligence of the leaders of the convoy service."
______________
It is an original way to arrange an accident for Girkin.
Post by: Cathar on August 31, 2023, 12:49:18 pm
Latest Girkin troll was absolutely out of this world though. He's running for president because, in essence, Vladimir is "too smart, too kind and too athletic". Girkin is 100% going to deserve the accident in store for him, but hot damn I'm going to miss his twitter
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2023, 01:02:54 pm
Do you mean the Kremlin doesn't take all the necessary precaution to insure the survivability of its opponents? Shocked, I'm shocked I tell you.
Latest Girkin troll was absolutely out of this world though. He's running for president because, in essence, Vladimir is "too smart, too kind and too athletic". Girkin is 100% going to deserve the accident in store for him, but hot damn I'm going to miss his twitter
I miss his regular whining(
It filled me with optimism better than any Ukrainian propaganda
Post by: King Zultan on September 01, 2023, 04:21:06 am
Post by: EuchreJack on September 01, 2023, 10:35:34 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 01, 2023, 01:19:56 pm
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to DW.
According to available data, on August 26, a 10-year-old boy was near the bridge with several other Ukrainian children, when an unknown man accused the children of speaking Ukrainian. The man demanded that they speak Russian and allegedly declared that Ukraine had started a war.
Then the man allegedly pulled the girl by the hair, grabbed the 10-year-old boy, and threw him over the railing into the canal. The boy hit the iron beams attached to the bridge and suffered injuries to his head and left leg. When the boy was lying in the canal, an unknown man allegedly threw a glass bottle at him, which hit the child in the right shoulder. After that, the man left the scene.
The perpetrator appears to be between 40 and 45 years old, and the police are looking for him.
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
Post by: Ganondworf on September 01, 2023, 02:49:53 pm
In Germany, in the city of Einbeck in Lower Saxony, an unknown man attacked a child from Ukraine. ...
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
A German source: https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/einbeck-zehnjaehriger-ukrainer-in-niedersachsen-angegriffen-wohl-weil-er-nicht-russisch-sprach-a-7fcb0ea5-3f29-43c0-a202-9c80c15c94f5 (https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/einbeck-zehnjaehriger-ukrainer-in-niedersachsen-angegriffen-wohl-weil-er-nicht-russisch-sprach-a-7fcb0ea5-3f29-43c0-a202-9c80c15c94f5)
One can only shake one's head. I hope the children will be alright. It seems so symbolic. First Russia wants Ukraine to be Russian, then it attacks its weaker victim, then it does victim-blaming, and lastly Russia doesn't take responsibility. It is really disgusting.
Post by: Great Order on September 01, 2023, 08:11:28 pm
Post by: King Zultan on September 02, 2023, 05:29:32 am
In Russia, a citizen can die in a locked room...I've also heard that Russian citizens can shoot themselves in the back of the head without a gun, such amazing tricks the Russians know.
Post by: martinuzz on September 02, 2023, 02:48:48 pm
In Germany, in the city of Einbeck in Lower Saxony, an unknown man attacked a child from Ukraine. The prosecutor’s office is investigating the case as attempted murder.I hope they catch the bastard before he hurts more people
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to DW.
According to available data, on August 26, a 10-year-old boy was near the bridge with several other Ukrainian children, when an unknown man accused the children of speaking Ukrainian. The man demanded that they speak Russian and allegedly declared that Ukraine had started a war.
Then the man allegedly pulled the girl by the hair, grabbed the 10-year-old boy, and threw him over the railing into the canal. The boy hit the iron beams attached to the bridge and suffered injuries to his head and left leg. When the boy was lying in the canal, an unknown man allegedly threw a glass bottle at him, which hit the child in the right shoulder. After that, the man left the scene.
The perpetrator appears to be between 40 and 45 years old, and the police are looking for him.
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
Post by: Robsoie on September 06, 2023, 09:47:09 pm
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russian-writer-dmitry-glukhovsky-handed-8-year-prison-102074748
Post by: Frumple on September 06, 2023, 10:25:36 pm
Post by: King Zultan on September 07, 2023, 05:32:39 am
Also reminds me I really need to finish reading 2035.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 07, 2023, 05:49:55 am
What did he do to get labeled as a foreign agent?
Posted reports of Russian war crimes on his social media.
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 07, 2023, 08:27:16 pm
In Germany, in the city of Einbeck in Lower Saxony, an unknown man attacked a child from Ukraine. The prosecutor’s office is investigating the case as attempted murder.It is now being reported that the boy gave false information and this did not happen as described. (https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article247246392/Ukrainischen-Jungen-von-Bruecke-geworfen-Wende-im-Fall-Einbeck.html)
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to DW.
According to available data, on August 26, a 10-year-old boy was near the bridge with several other Ukrainian children, when an unknown man accused the children of speaking Ukrainian. The man demanded that they speak Russian and allegedly declared that Ukraine had started a war.
Then the man allegedly pulled the girl by the hair, grabbed the 10-year-old boy, and threw him over the railing into the canal. The boy hit the iron beams attached to the bridge and suffered injuries to his head and left leg. When the boy was lying in the canal, an unknown man allegedly threw a glass bottle at him, which hit the child in the right shoulder. After that, the man left the scene.
The perpetrator appears to be between 40 and 45 years old, and the police are looking for him.
This is the type of people we are waging war against.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 09, 2023, 01:04:25 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on September 09, 2023, 06:10:31 pm
Hm, my friend from Azerbaijan is quite confident that a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is about to start in the next few days. I do not see anything beyond the usual sabble-rattling but he said that Azerbaijani troop movements are rather unusual and indicate more than empty postures.Does he say this whenever you speak with him?
I'm reasonably sure I heard that when the most recent invasion of Ukraine began February 24th, 2022.
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 10, 2023, 12:11:28 am
Hm, my friend from Azerbaijan is quite confident that a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is about to start in the next few days. I do not see anything beyond the usual sabble-rattling but he said that Azerbaijani troop movements are rather unusual and indicate more than empty postures.From the news I've been seeing about the area, I'd say it's likely. Under the circumstances, this could easily mean war between Azerbaijan and Iran, since Iran has clearly made the Zangezur corridor a red line. Turkey would have to decide whether to intervene, which is as much as to say that there is a risk of bringing NATO into war with Iran; but Iran is certainly emboldened by its perception of the status of the Ukrainian war. The situation is a powder-keg, to say the least.
Post by: EuchreJack on September 10, 2023, 01:03:59 am
Western vehicle losses not a big deal, since they're designed to prioritize survival of the crews. I've been saying this ever since Western media has been trying to terrify with Bradley losses, but official journalists are finally clarifying better than I could.
Post by: King Zultan on September 10, 2023, 01:41:03 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 10, 2023, 01:46:49 am
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp)I've noticed for a while now there's been a concerted effort on the part of our media, especially business-oriented media, to try to convince Americans not to support any more aid to Ukraine. Previously, it was, "well, the offensive's stalled, isn't it so boring and hard to care about now?"; now that that's become a hard claim to maintain, it's "Ukraine doesn't need any more tanks, those tanks did their job, everything's fine and you don't need to care about it".
Western vehicle losses not a big deal, since they're designed to prioritize survival of the crews. I've been saying this ever since Western media has been trying to terrify with Bradley losses, but official journalists are finally clarifying better than I could.
Tanks aren't ablative armor, though.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2023, 03:53:36 am
Hm, my friend from Azerbaijan is quite confident that a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is about to start in the next few days. I do not see anything beyond the usual sabble-rattling but he said that Azerbaijani troop movements are rather unusual and indicate more than empty postures.From the news I've been seeing about the area, I'd say it's likely. Under the circumstances, this could easily mean war between Azerbaijan and Iran, since Iran has clearly made the Zangezur corridor a red line. Turkey would have to decide whether to intervene, which is as much as to say that there is a risk of bringing NATO into war with Iran; but Iran is certainly emboldened by its perception of the status of the Ukrainian war. The situation is a powder-keg, to say the least.
I simply don't believe that Iran is this stupid. Even in the case of the most optimistic scenario with Turkey limiting its assistance to arms supplies, this is unwinnable and will destabilize Iran with its large Azerbaijani diaspora.
Post by: martinuzz on September 10, 2023, 04:00:16 am
Post by: EuchreJack on September 10, 2023, 04:30:35 am
Mainstream AKA leftist media tends to still support the War in Ukraine, including at least some aid, since it's literally the best possible war for making President Biden look good. American equipment destroying Russia with NO Americans dying. I'll take 4 more years of that!https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp (https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-western-vehicle-losses-not-big-win-for-russia-report-2023-9?amp)I've noticed for a while now there's been a concerted effort on the part of our media, especially business-oriented media, to try to convince Americans not to support any more aid to Ukraine. Previously, it was, "well, the offensive's stalled, isn't it so boring and hard to care about now?"; now that that's become a hard claim to maintain, it's "Ukraine doesn't need any more tanks, those tanks did their job, everything's fine and you don't need to care about it".
Western vehicle losses not a big deal, since they're designed to prioritize survival of the crews. I've been saying this ever since Western media has been trying to terrify with Bradley losses, but official journalists are finally clarifying better than I could.
Tanks aren't ablative armor, though.
Post by: Starver on September 10, 2023, 05:31:41 am
And then there's right-wing that makes Fox/GBNews/etc, look positively sane. Well... maybe not sane. But more mainstream than some other isolated rills off a side-creek of the whole sprawling news delta.
But it may be perspective. The McCarthy era (etc) clearly shifted the political window over quite a lick, stateside.
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 10, 2023, 12:50:08 pm
But no, large sections of the American media have definitely been trying to wean people off Ukraine, for whatever reason. It's hard to miss. Maybe because progressives are traditionally anti-war and fear another Afghanistan.
this is unwinnable and will destabilize Iran with its large Azerbaijani diaspora.Not at all. Iran's interest is in uniting the Azeris, of whom more already live in Iran than Azerbaijan, under its rule, something the Iranian Azerbaijanis seem to support. It's already made intimations that it would be willing to incorporate an independent Nakhchivan, which has considerable separatist sentiment, in a similar way to Russia and the LPR.
Post by: hector13 on September 10, 2023, 12:50:58 pm
Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/07/broad-agreement-in-u-s-even-among-partisans-on-which-news-outlets-are-part-of-the-mainstream-media/) are also mainstream media. He’s not referring to them.
Edit for clarity
Post by: heydude6 on September 10, 2023, 12:53:26 pm
What is Euchre referring to then?
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 10, 2023, 01:01:33 pm
When people like EJ say mainstream media, they don’t mean mainstream media.It sure is weird that you specifically pulled out only the fifth through seventh most mainstream, and didn't mention Disney News, CNN, the New York Times, or MSNBC.
Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/07/broad-agreement-in-u-s-even-among-partisans-on-which-news-outlets-are-part-of-the-mainstream-media/) are mainstream media. He’s not referring to them.
Post by: hector13 on September 10, 2023, 01:03:35 pm
They did hire a former campaign manager for Trump as a political commentator though.
So yeah, EJ is referring to outlets that don’t explicitly agree with him or his world view, using the word mainstream in the manner I might use as a four-letter word. Well maybe not that manner I swear like a sailor, but you get the gist.
When people like EJ say mainstream media, they don’t mean mainstream media.It sure is weird that you specifically pulled out only the fifth through seventh most mainstream, and didn't mention Disney News, CNN, the New York Times, or MSNBC.
Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post (https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/05/07/broad-agreement-in-u-s-even-among-partisans-on-which-news-outlets-are-part-of-the-mainstream-media/) are mainstream media. He’s not referring to them.
EJ covered them in his Mainstream AKA Leftist rant. I corrected that assertion by pointing out right-leaning mainstream media outlets.
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 10, 2023, 01:09:33 pm
Post by: hector13 on September 10, 2023, 01:10:30 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 10, 2023, 05:46:55 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 11, 2023, 09:33:55 am
Not at all. Iran's interest is in uniting the Azeris, of whom more already live in Iran than Azerbaijan, under its rule, something the Iranian Azerbaijanis seem to support. It's already made intimations that it would be willing to incorporate an independent Nakhchivan, which has considerable separatist sentiment, in a similar way to Russia and the LPR.
There were pro-Azerbaijan protests in Tehran during the last war, large enough to be dispersed with tear gas and stuff.
Are you implying that Iranian Azeri will be like - "Well, let's support Armenians who openly hate all Turks (and they see no difference between Azeri and Turks) in their war with other Azeris!" I seriously doubt it works this way.
Even those Iranian Azeri who believe that Azerbaijani should be reunited within Iran and that they should bring their misguided secular brothers back home may have some issues with a war of this kind. Especially if it will include stuff like ballistic missiles hitting Baku.
And don't tell me that there are no Iranian Azeris who would love to form a nice big independent Azerbaijan and will see such aggression as an opportunity to get one.
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 11, 2023, 01:02:03 pm
Frankly, the era of ethnic nationalism as a driving force for the dissolution of large states is over.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 11, 2023, 04:01:45 pm
It doesn't sound convincing.
Quote
It's not too different from Syria - Iranian Twelver Shia aren't exactly fond of Alawites either.
It is way easier to sell. And Iranian involvement is quite modest, war with Azerbaijan will require far more men fighting.
Post by: EuchreJack on September 12, 2023, 06:40:10 am
Yeah, EJ forgetting that Fox news exists is exactly why sane people don't take right-wing shitposts seriously anymore. They take for granted the fact that the cold war has seriously, badly shifted American politics a LOT more right-wing than the norm in the rest of the world, and instead keep moving the goal posts and insisting that anything left of letting billionaires hunt homeless people for sport is communism.Actually, I'm old enough to remember when Fox News wasn't mainstream media. Usually, when people use the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media", they're specifically excluding Fox News. It used to also be the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media" also primary was said on Fox News, so it was kinda obvious that they weren't talking about themselves.
Could we get back to discussing the War in Ukraine instead of my media biases?
(FYI, the news that I generally watch is CBS. What can I say, I actually like them.)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 12, 2023, 07:02:29 am
Now. I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia and odds are that their old soviet hardware will perform better But on the other hand "better shape than Russia" is a really low bar and I also suspect they are not eager to test its performance outside tighly co trolled scenarios, and fighting for some already contested land of questionable value for them is more likely than not not in the books
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 12, 2023, 08:37:58 am
I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia
AHAHAHAHAHA
GLORIOUS DEAR LEADER PUTIN IS OF MAKE COUNTRY GREAT AND STRONG
Surely now Russia will be able to finally overcome their great rivals and peers (in 30 years) like... Turkey, or Turkish Cyprus
Post by: scriver on September 12, 2023, 09:33:17 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 12, 2023, 11:44:27 am
The Russian drones were of Iranian make, right? At least sone of them.Yes, the Saheeds. Which are one of the more effective weapons systems they're using.
I daresay the war in Ukraine shows it'd be unwise for Iran to engage in an uncertain military adventure. Even if Russia ended up winning (or with a settlement that left them with more territory than when they started) the cost/benefit is clearly horrendous. Azerbajan has an experienced & kind of modern army. In many ways their war with Armenia (which had a Russian style old-soviet-hardware type of army) predicted the course of the war in Ukraine.
Now. I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia and odds are that their old soviet hardware will perform better But on the other hand "better shape than Russia" is a really low bar and I also suspect they are not eager to test its performance outside tighly co trolled scenarios, and fighting for some already contested land of questionable value for them is more likely than not not in the books
The bigger issue for Iran is that they're not a nuclear power. Which means that if a major power decided that intervention was appropriate, Iran doesn't have the same trump card to prevent it. I don't know if any major powers would intervene here, but the possibility is dangerous enough for Iran that they're going to have to think very carefully about it.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 12, 2023, 11:53:25 am
Post by: Starver on September 12, 2023, 12:59:14 pm
Usually, when people use the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media", they're specifically excluding Fox News. It used to also be the phrase "Leftist Mainstream Media" also primary was said on Fox News, so it was kinda obvious that they weren't talking about themselves.
Don't know about anyone else, but "Leftist Mainstream Media" was not what was I responded about.
Spoiler: In more detail... (click to show/hide)
Well, when they are apparently arranging for military assistance (in return for food..?[1]) from Kim's country, it seems to suggest an amount of desperation.I suspect Iran's army is more modernized than Russia
AHAHAHAHAHA
GLORIOUS DEAR LEADER PUTIN IS OF MAKE COUNTRY GREAT AND STRONG
Surely now Russia will be able to finally overcome their great rivals and peers (in 30 years) like... Turkey, or Turkish Cyprus
Which is not to say that the military might north of that particular DMZ isn't significant, but it seems more geared towards the local regional situation. And sending enough equipment to Russia to make a difference to its active military aspirations would surely mean stripping NK of significant amounts of its hard-won 'deterrent' level. Psychologically, I can't see the native military-industrial-complex production being diverted to export without some hefty form of recompense to fill some other gap in its attempt to maintain parity against the SK/ally enemy.
Which means that it's all rather funny and/or worrying, depending on how seriously we should treat the meeting of the leaders. (It might just be as meaningful as the fleeting detente with the prior US President, of course.)
edit: I wasn't aware that he'd actually started his trip yet, after the rumours over the last few weeks, but shortly after posting the above I came across this news item (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66787449) which covers some of the same speculation. Yes, "tourism" (more Little Green Men? But I was pondering either offers of Wagner-style instructors, or maybe something else) and agriculture. But indeed strong hints that there may be a space-tech dimension to this. Haven't heard what China thinks about this, though, given the on-off nature of Sino-Russian cooperation and more direct Sino-NKorean relations, could be either way.
[1] For the sake of ordinary Best Koreans, I would rather hope so. Some of that grain that they can't/won't export via the Black Sea due to the repurcussions from the hissy-fit over whether Ukraine can do so (with whatever hasn't been roasted by Russian rocketry). Either that or research levels in niche technologies, but I don't know how much help even Putin would give to assist NK's nuclear ambitions. Maybe just its rocketry. "For peaceful purposes."
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 12, 2023, 01:05:48 pm
I daresay the war in Ukraine shows it'd be unwise for Iran to engage in an uncertain military adventure.I said "its perception of" for a reason. They see what they want to there.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 12, 2023, 08:59:37 pm
The bigger issue for Iran is that they're not a nuclear power. Which means that if a major power decided that intervention was appropriate, Iran doesn't have the same trump card to prevent it
|I am not entirely sure that it is still true and almost 100% sure that if it is true then it is not for long. Russia will transfer technologies or even their own nukes really soon.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 12, 2023, 09:05:27 pm
Post by: scriver on September 13, 2023, 05:15:41 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 13, 2023, 04:03:59 pm
Fun fact: There is a theory (i think it counts ad a conspiracy theory?) that Iran is behind the recent Koran burnings and succequent fallout for Sweden as part of some scheme to make Sweden look bad?
There's evidence that there's foreign actors behind it, but the more probable actor is Russia.
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 13, 2023, 10:19:09 pm
Post by: Starver on September 14, 2023, 12:56:48 am
Armed escalation with NATO may have been risked and avoided by incompetence plus equipment failure. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508) The original reporting was already indicative of problems, of course, but now potentially add human errors (that cancelled themselves out).
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 14, 2023, 03:19:46 am
There's footage of the aftermath of a Ukranian drone attack on a Russian landing ship and Kilo-class submarine in drydock. The damages to the submarine aren't given enough focus to evaluate the damage, but the landing ship looks like a total loss.I'm seeing some claims from Ukraine that Starlink was - once more - shut down for the duration of the attack, stranding the drones before they could reach their targets. The damage would then be done by missiles only.
Post by: King Zultan on September 14, 2023, 03:25:38 am
Post by: martinuzz on September 15, 2023, 03:10:25 pm
He was flown to Moscow for treatment, where doctors said they could not do anything for him anymore.
Tomorrow he might be flown to the United Arab Emirates to see if doctors there can help him.
Chechen uprisings and battles for succession would be nice.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 15, 2023, 04:08:17 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 15, 2023, 05:26:44 pm
Some good news: Putin's close ally, Chechen leader Kadyrov is in a coma, most likely dying from a kidney disease.Only source is Ukrainian intelligence so far so I'd take this with a pinch of salt unless there's independent confirmation
He was flown to Moscow for treatment, where doctors said they could not do anything for him anymore.
Tomorrow he might be flown to the United Arab Emirates to see if doctors there can help him.
Chechen uprisings and battles for succession would be nice.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 16, 2023, 01:55:34 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 18, 2023, 10:43:56 am
Now Russia happily admits in their cringe requirement videos that it is a war of conquest and nothing more. The sad part is that even that kind of stuff can't clear the minds of Russian fans in the West.
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 18, 2023, 11:03:38 am
These things were clear when they annexed those four regions. The Russian fans in the West know, and they like it.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 19, 2023, 04:58:59 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 19, 2023, 03:36:49 pm
Also, I find it hilarious that there are protests in Armenia demanding to start a big war with Azerbaijan as if it can be anything but a catastrophe for Armenia.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 19, 2023, 04:42:53 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 19, 2023, 04:51:49 pm
1) Azerbaijan is operating within its internationally recognized borders.
2) While both countries have certain ties to Russia, Armenia is way more pro-Russian.
3) Karabakh is a mafia-run territory, locals will never have decent lives unless Karabakh is eliminated one way or another
Yes, I am somewhat worried about what Azerbaijani troops will do with civilian Armenians residing in Karabakh and I am far from sure that Azerbaijan won't go beyond 1991 borders at some point but I am certainly not on Armenia's side.
Post by: King Zultan on September 20, 2023, 02:36:38 am
Post by: Starver on September 20, 2023, 03:46:50 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 20, 2023, 04:15:08 am
Only on that general theme, not at all to do with Ukraine/nearby, I just want to note in passing that I feel for those in Morocco who had the worst earthquake in local living history and then got overshadowed by the Libya floods. The victims of the latter definitely also deserve our concern, at least as much, but have rather kicked those suffering from the Moroccan aftermath from the news...In Spain, Lybian floods have almost been a footnote in the news compared to Morocco. Which I found irritating
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2023, 04:26:28 am
Further negotiations between local Armenian population and Azerbaijan's representatives are set to take place tomorrow
___
Good, they should have surrendered immediately but I think they had hopes for some international reaction\hep. But Iran is actually NOT suicidal and just likes to be loud, Russia couldn't help even if they wanted, and the West has no reason to interfere.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 20, 2023, 06:17:21 am
Post by: Ziusudra on September 20, 2023, 08:04:05 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2023, 08:40:41 am
All I "know" about Armenia is they were victims of Turkey's war crimes.
They were. The problem is that caused Armenians to go rather... right-wing type irrational. A significant part of them openly dream about the Great Armenia with plans to get parts of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran to get back the rightful lands of the most ancient and the most holy nation ever existing.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 20, 2023, 08:52:24 am
Unlike my country's ultranationalists, who operate not out of revenge but out of raw, unadulterated, "fuck you got mine". They don't even try to hide it. That is much worse.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 20, 2023, 08:53:19 am
They were. The problem is that caused Armenians to go rather... right-wing type irrational. A significant part of them openly dream about the Great Armenia with plans to get parts of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran to get back the rightful lands of the most ancient and the most holy nation ever existing.Siege mentality (even justified) usually evolves into revanchist and irredentist sentiments. Proximity to Iran, Russia & Turkey likely doesn't help things, what with their willingness to snip bits of their neighbours off setting the rules of diplomacy on fire
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2023, 09:12:17 am
Russia doesn't really play history or culture cards beyond "What was once Russia is Russia" or "If people speak Russian they are Russians and should be in Russia."
Quote
Siege mentality (even justified) usually evolves into revanchist and irredentist sentiments. Proximity to Iran, Russia & Turkey likely doesn't help things, what with their willingness to snip bits of their neighbours off setting the rules of diplomacy on fireYep, their nation survived a huge trauma and it is an understandable result. It doesn't change that with their attitude (and lack of any economic or military might) will lead their nation to bad places unless they change it to something more fitting for the modern world.
Admitting that doing stuff like turning ancient mosques into pigsties can be a good start.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 20, 2023, 09:17:17 am
Yeah. It's pretty tragic seeing shit like China, India, Pakistan, Israel et al emerging from centuries of trauma just to trace the same ugly paths of imperialism and racism that were foist upon themQuoteSiege mentality (even justified) usually evolves into revanchist and irredentist sentiments. Proximity to Iran, Russia & Turkey likely doesn't help things, what with their willingness to snip bits of their neighbours off setting the rules of diplomacy on fireYep, their nation survived a huge trauma and it is an understandable result. It doesn't change that with their attitude (and lack of any economic or military might) will lead their nation to bad places unless they change it to something more fitting for the modern world.
Admitting that doing stuff like turning ancient mosques into pigsties can be a good start.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 20, 2023, 09:18:38 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 20, 2023, 09:25:09 am
Jingoists might be a better word than ultranationalists, I guess.Sometimes ultranationalist is a better fit, just because you do get prominent strains of jingoists who are liberals (e.g. American warhawks are usually very jingoistic but liberal and global in outlook) and you get ultranationalists who are very weak on foreign policy but dickheads at home (e.g. Malaysia or Indonesia being weak in the face of China but willing to destroy centuries old Hindu temples or implement exclusionary civil policies with religious laws)
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 20, 2023, 11:10:38 am
They were. The problem is that caused Armenians to go rather... right-wing type irrational. A significant part of them openly dream about the Great Armenia with plans to get parts of Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran to get back the rightful lands of the most ancient and the most holy nation ever existing.
Ah, gotta love it when a country that suffers some nasty shit learns entirely the wrong lessons from that... :-\
Post by: scriver on September 21, 2023, 07:24:35 am
I like to separate supremacist and imperialist bents because while they often come together wholly or partially supremacist nationalism also comes in the more "isolationist" variety that I associate with say English nationalists (I can't say how accurate that is though but it is the impression I have from afar) who are very "we are the best and everybody else are savages" seems to not come with the assumption that the rest of the world should belong to them any more.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 21, 2023, 07:51:51 am
I think supremacist (all other nations are inferior) and imperialist (weaker nations must/deserve to be dominated/conquered) nationalism fits well. Traditionally they often pair strongly with what Strongpoint defined as ultramationalist as far as I can see, although over here that kind of ultranationalism has taken a backseat to the less specific race nationalism for the last 30 years or so ("race nationalism" here used to describe "white power" and similar movements where they start identifying their race as their nation before their actual nation).
I like to separate supremacist and imperialist bents because while they often come together wholly or partially supremacist nationalism also comes in the more "isolationist" variety that I associate with say English nationalists (I can't say how accurate that is though but it is the impression I have from afar) who are very "we are the best and everybody else are savages" seems to not come with the assumption that the rest of the world should belong to them any more.
I define it as:
-Supremacists believe one group should dominate another. You get very obvious and overt ones like racial supremacists, but then you also get a large category of people who would not self-identify as supremacists who nevertheless believe it's "obvious" that one group should dominate another. E.g. "oh we just work harder and smarter than everyone else, that's why we're at the top."
-Nationalism believes that the goals and interests of the nation supercedes the interests and goals of the individual. Ranges from benign flavours of patriotism to expectations that loyalty to a system is more valuable than questioning whether the system is good to begin with.
Within nationalism you can probably also add the special nationalists, like those who are trying to achieve statehood (e.g. separatists trying to achieve a nation-state from another state's borders, e.g. historical Polish nationalism, Kurdish nationalism or Khalistan nationalism). Or special cases like Taiwanese nationalism or Ukrainian nationalism prior to Russia's support of Donbas separatism & the invasion, where people were building the concept of the national identity. Another way to put it, is that nationalists envision building the largest community of people who identify as a common people.
-Ultranationalism takes this concept of community and then treats anything not part of this "common people" as contaminants, whether by falling afoul of sectarian, religious or racial grounds. Some people tie this into concepts of imperialism and geopolitical darwinism like the fascists and imperialists of the early 20th century, but there have always been ultranationalists who were anti-imperialist. E.g. France and Britain both had fervent anti-imperialists who were also highly xenophobic. The US GOP today has Republicans who are like this, who are fervent believers in American exceptionalism, believe Americans are the best thing ever, but also oppose American interventions and military operations abroad and think the whole "democratic crusade" of jingoistic liberals is just going to waste American resources for the benefit of non-Americans.
Conversely you do get very liberal-minded warhawks who reject the notion of nationalism entirely, yet still advocate for imperialism. In the late 19th century this was very literal liberal imperialism, with British liberal imperialists advocating for increased enfranchisement and moral advancement, whilst also advocating for imperial expansion whether the receivers wanted such liberal generosity at the end of a bayonet. The parallels between then and now with rainbow-flagged reaper drones flying over the middle east at least rhyme
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 21, 2023, 07:58:58 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 21, 2023, 08:08:20 am
Back on topic, Ukraine appears to have hit an important Crimean airfield. The base, which supposedly housed a minimum of 12 tactical fighters, was first hit with a drone swarm to overwhelm the air defenses, followed by a salvo of Neptune missiles. Footage of large explosions and great amounts of fire has been circulating.And two patrol ships! (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/21/ukraine-strikes-russian-ships-state-of-the-art-aerial-defences-in-crimea)
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2023, 05:10:30 pm
But what warms my heart is that we have some ability to respond in kind. Not to the same extent but... Tula is the first to enjoy an evening without electricity, I am really curious how quickly they will fix it.
Dear Russians who live anywhere close to Ukraine, don't waste your money on petrol generators. Those are crap for continuous use. Get yourself a diesel one. I would also suggest avoiding Chinese generators, batteries, and powerbanks but I doubt that your market will have many alternatives. Also, linking your router directly to a battery is a practical solution, double DC to AC to DC conversion is just silly.
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2023, 02:48:53 am
[...] double DC to AC to DC conversion is just silly.
Spoiler: Obxkcd (click to show/hide)
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 22, 2023, 09:16:53 am
Ukrainian tactics were really clever. First they launched a swarm of drones to saturate Russian air defences before launching Ukrainian-manufactured Neptune cruise missiles, to increase the likelihood of cruise missiles penetrating layered air defence systems. I actually think that for all the justified praise UK & Poland get for training Ukrainian servicemen, that actually Ukraine is in a position to train NATO forces on how to fight a conventional war in the 21st century. There was a very funny interview of a Ukrainian veteran who completed a training course abroad who said "50% was really useful, 50% would get me killed very quickly" after he told an instructor that their trench-clearing exercise was "nice but unusable." I also love this one quote from a US training instructor who said that the Ukrainians taught him the value of soup - can never have enough soup
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 22, 2023, 10:00:25 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 22, 2023, 12:34:25 pm
Sevastopol Black Sea Fleet HQ in flames after devastating Ukrainian missile attack (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia)
Ukrainian tactics were really clever. First they launched a swarm of drones to saturate Russian air defences before launching Ukrainian-manufactured Neptune cruise missiles, to increase the likelihood of cruise missiles penetrating layered air defence systems. I actually think that for all the justified praise UK & Poland get for training Ukrainian servicemen, that actually Ukraine is in a position to train NATO forces on how to fight a conventional war in the 21st century. There was a very funny interview of a Ukrainian veteran who completed a training course abroad who said "50% was really useful, 50% would get me killed very quickly" after he told an instructor that their trench-clearing exercise was "nice but unusable." I also love this one quote from a US training instructor who said that the Ukrainians taught him the value of soup - can never have enough soup
That's how they hit the airbase the other day. This Fleet HQ attack was probably Storm Shadows - there's a video of the impact where the blur is more Storm Shadow shaped, and the hit has the distinctive sound of two warheads (Storm Shadow has a small warhead in front of the main one to clear debris and increase penetration) going off. Which is bad news for the target - Neptune's pretty lightweight with only a 130 kilogram warhead. Storm Shadow carries 450, and that initial charge lets it penetrate deep before going off.
EDIT: There's unconfirmed reports that there was a meeting at the time for high-ranking officers, including Admiral Viktor Sokolov himself. If this is true Ukraine might have just decapitated the Black Seas Fleet.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 22, 2023, 02:02:18 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 22, 2023, 03:00:30 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 22, 2023, 03:27:12 pm
Only one reported death tho
Information coming from Russian official sources is hardly information at all.
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 22, 2023, 03:34:09 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 22, 2023, 04:07:48 pm
No-one has mentioned the Poland row yet. In summary Poland, along with Slovakia and Hungary, announced they will continue to ban grain imports from Ukraine, after an EU-wide directive to ban all import of Ukrainian grain into the EU market was allowed to expire by the EU Commission. They said this is to protect local farmers from a potential glut in the market that would drop the price of grain. They will allow grain to continue to transit through the country. This is after the EU Commission insisted that EU members shouldn't make individual policies within the bloc. After this Ukraine made a complaint against Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia at the WTO (since dropped against Slovakia) that they were ignoring their international obligations. Zelenskyy also said in a speech at the UN that "friends in Europe" were creating a "political theatre" out of grain that had the effect of "setting the stage for a Moscow actor." Polish PM took offence to that statement and said there will be no further Polish shipments of weapons to Ukraine other than those already promised at this time, though he couched it in saying that this is because Poland was arming Poland first. This is in the context of upcoming parliamentary elections in Poland in which the ruling party PiS is facing pressure from the far-right who are opposed to more aid to Ukraine. There have been moves from both sides to repair ties.
This is a tempest in a teapot. Poland isn't sending any of their first-line weapons, because they have a large land border with Russia and are in the process of arming themselves to the teeth. What Poland has been sending is second-line gear they don't use anymore but is very useful to Ukraine because it was largely the same ex-Soviet equipment that makes up a large part of what Ukraine is already familiar with. Poland is running out of that. They've been quite open about that for months.
Poland DOES have an election going up, and big parts of their electorate are mad about Ukrainian grain flooding Western Europe (because it can't be shipped to Africa). So couching things in terms that help that domestically make sense. But Poland was going to stop sending weapons pretty soon no matter what, and they've very explicitly said that they're still backing the Ukrainian government.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 26, 2023, 01:11:03 pm
Not only does it contradict our constitution that says "no elections during martial law", not only the voting part is complicated with so many refugees and people busy fighting...
Elections are messy, they must include political attacks on the government, they create a divide by their very nature, and fair elections require freedom of speech beyond necessary war censorship.
At the same time, this war may continue for many more years. We can't just stop being a democracy. It is really complicated stuff
Post by: Grim Portent on September 26, 2023, 01:45:31 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on September 26, 2023, 04:57:26 pm
Coming from a Country with a strong democratic tradition (The United States, believe it or not), I would say our country would hold the election. We've also never voted out a war-time President. So, I am in no position to advise Ukraine. While I do personally think Ukraine should have an Election, I would understand if they do not.
For contrast, other (lesser) countries HAVE "lost" wars due to changing government in wartime.
(At this point, I remember that like any good American, I forgot about Vietnam. Moving on...)
Post by: Maximum Spin on September 26, 2023, 05:02:10 pm
Post by: Starver on September 26, 2023, 07:29:39 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on September 26, 2023, 07:32:15 pm
viet what now, never heard of it
(At this point, I remember that like any good American, I forgot about Vietnam. Moving on...)
Post by: anewaname on September 26, 2023, 10:18:27 pm
Most voters probably see a vote against Zelensky equal to surrendering to Russia and accepting the people-purges and police state that would follow.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 27, 2023, 01:02:25 am
What does the average Ukrainian feel about Zelensky? And, what could the average Ukrainian blame on Zelensky that they could not blame on the Russians?
Most voters probably see a vote against Zelensky equal to surrendering to Russia and accepting the people-purges and police state that would follow.
More and more people ask questions about... Zelensky's weird pre-war decisions and percentage of "our glorious leader is so cool!" type of people is quite low but I can't realistically think of anyone who would win presidential elections against him except Zaluzhny but it would be idiotic if he went into politics instead of commanding forces.
Then again, our political life is on a weird, almost surreal pause. Politicians and their media almost don't throw shit at one another. Even pro-Russian MPs are tolerated (and they keep themselves silent in return). Elections will change that.
Parliament is a more complex issue. I don't know anyone who doesn't consider the current one to be a bunch of corrupt useless fucks unfit for wartime. It is everyone's game of who could get in in case of elections.
Post by: hector13 on September 27, 2023, 02:20:27 am
I don’t think the Russian soldiers would allow people to vote, logistically or otherwise, and even if they did, there was the “plebiscite” held in the four areas Russia annexed that had armed Russians going round collecting votes, which surprise surprise “voted” to become part of Russia.
It becomes a Catch-22 of allowing Russia to have a pretty direct influence over the election, or allowing Russia the propaganda of not allowing those in occupied areas to vote, so they can say that Ukraine has abandoned them and they belong to Russia now.
Post by: martinuzz on September 28, 2023, 02:08:46 pm
The Armenian government is furious that Russia did not use it's peace keeping forces in Nagorno-Karabach to defend the enclave.
Armenian premier Nikol Pasjinjan called the Russian peacekeeping mission a failure, and accused Russia of being accomplice to the ethnic cleansing that is going on there right now.
The Kremlin replied by saying that the Armenian government is trying to deliberatly destroy the ancient ties between Russia and Armenia.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 28, 2023, 03:31:56 pm
Post by: nenjin on September 28, 2023, 04:00:10 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on September 28, 2023, 07:02:13 pm
Armenia might be disappointed when they talk to the West and find out that region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan....Hm, I suspect the United States could ignore all that to prop up an Enemy-of-My-Enemy.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 28, 2023, 11:52:26 pm
Armenia might be disappointed when they talk to the West and find out that region is internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan....
Karabakh is gone for Armenia. Most people left it already in a hasty exodus which looks caused more by Armenians being afraid of possible atrocities than actual atrocities. Really easy and rapid ethnic cleansing for Azerbaijan that they definitely don't mind.
But Armenian society is in turmoil. (Ultra)nationalist elements are angry at Pashynyan's Government, Russia and international institutions and pro-Russian elements actively work to remove Pashynyan who seemingly tries to get some security guarantees from the West.
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 29, 2023, 05:50:02 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 01, 2023, 12:08:24 pm
Sure, they didn't get an overwhelming victory and will need to form a coalition with others but this trend is very worrisome.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 01, 2023, 06:21:19 pm
Post by: martinuzz on October 01, 2023, 08:23:47 pm
I hope this does not mean the end of US support for Ukraine.
Post by: hector13 on October 01, 2023, 09:16:22 pm
Whether or not he’s still in the job to be able to do that is anyone’s guess.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 01, 2023, 11:13:10 pm
McCarthy is supposedly interested in maintaining Ukrainian support.Actually, he might be able to use that to keep his job.
Whether or not he’s still in the job to be able to do that is anyone’s guess.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 01, 2023, 11:49:54 pm
The fuckup in Canadian parliament is nothing compared to what happened in US Congress.
I hope this does not mean the end of US support for Ukraine.
I am not worried much. Those are political games and some solution will be found. I do worry about the 2024 elections...
Post by: EuchreJack on October 02, 2023, 12:04:17 am
Well, in the US, I would be surprised if Biden didn't win.The fuckup in Canadian parliament is nothing compared to what happened in US Congress.
I hope this does not mean the end of US support for Ukraine.
I am not worried much. Those are political games and some solution will be found. I do worry about the 2024 elections...
Post by: lemon10 on October 02, 2023, 12:14:50 am
As strongpoint says though, if Trump wins in 2024 everything can change very quickly. I would be pretty surprised if Trump won, although it remains a very frightening possibility.
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 02, 2023, 01:22:44 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 02, 2023, 04:23:11 am
Oh, my. I've only now learned about that fuckup in the Canadian parliament from like a week ago. By watching Russian propaganda, no less. Who are of course having a field day with it.I still don't get how only one guy in that entire parliament seemed to clock something was funny when the speaker said "fought against the soviet union for ukrainian independence in WWII"
Buncha historically illiterate muppets run the world
I'm not worried either, its a small portion of right wing extremists against the US military industrial complex (https://www.analystnews.org/posts/as-the-war-in-ukraine-drags-on-americas-arms-industry-reaps-the-profits). This is not a fight a small faction of the right wing is ever going to win. As much as I hate money in politics sometimes the money is simply on your side.Not to mention that even if a pro-Ukraine anti-Russia president gets elected, there's plenty a US government could do to harm certain areas of arms procurement. E.g. defence industry mandems want long term contracts to justify their own investments into scaling up production of shells (https://ig.ft.com/us-defence-industry/). So it's easy to see how a hostile US president could royally muck up Ukraine's arms supplies in key areas like shells, as well as fighter jets & armaments
As strongpoint says though, if Trump wins in 2024 everything can change very quickly. I would be pretty surprised if Trump won, although it remains a very frightening possibility.
Post by: Madman198237 on October 02, 2023, 10:04:50 am
Oh, my. I've only now learned about that fuckup in the Canadian parliament from like a week ago. By watching Russian propaganda, no less. Who are of course having a field day with it.I still don't get how only one guy in that entire parliament seemed to clock something was funny when the speaker said "fought against the soviet union for ukrainian independence in WWII"
Buncha historically illiterate muppets run the world
Yes indeed, the Soviet Union that had its own secret police, massive purges, killed more of their own people in said purges and similar than Nazi Germany killed people TOTAL, and started the war on the side of Nazi Germany. After spending years helping the Germans rearm against the terms of the Treaty of Versailles.
The Soviet Union was not some great member of the Allies, they were an ally of convenience guilty of greater atrocities than the Nazis. It is a great tragedy that they didn't fall apart after or during WWII. I wouldn't be hasty to judge anyone who decided that it was better for their friends and neighbors that they fight with the Germans against the Soviets, not if they'd already been under the Soviet boot.
Now, obviously, this particular case is probably different because the guy literally served in an SS unit according to what I've seen thrown around the internet. That is just some bad fact-checking on the part of somebody in the Canadian parliament.
So historically illiterate, not necessarily. Generic illiterate? Probably.
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 02, 2023, 10:21:13 am
Quote
In the aftermath of the fight against ISIS, for example, demand from the Pentagon declined significantly. The DoD “invested all this money to ramp up Hellfire production to 10,000 a year and then the US said ‘we don’t want those anymore’”, says Pettyjohn. A scramble to find foreign buyers ensued, leaving the primes wary of a repeat scenario.Just adding on to the point of "US government could fuck up the armament issue, even by accident, moreso with an actively obstructive president"
“[The manufacturers] couldn't responsibly just go out and build a factory and hire 3,000 people without any hope of a budgetary [signal],” says Martin of Rand Corporation. “And is the government doing it? No, absolutely not.”
Yes indeed, the Soviet Union that had its own secret police, massive purges, killed more of their own people in said purges and similar than Nazi Germany killed people TOTAL, and started the war on the side of Nazi Germany. After spending years helping the Germans rearm against the terms of the Treaty of Versailles.My guy you couldn't have explained my point any better
The Soviet Union was not some great member of the Allies, they were an ally of convenience guilty of greater atrocities than the Nazis. It is a great tragedy that they didn't fall apart after or during WWII. I wouldn't be hasty to judge anyone who decided that it was better for their friends and neighbors that they fight with the Germans against the Soviets, not if they'd already been under the Soviet boot.
Now, obviously, this particular case is probably different because the guy literally served in an SS unit according to what I've seen thrown around the internet. That is just some bad fact-checking on the part of somebody in the Canadian parliament.
So historically illiterate, not necessarily. Generic illiterate? Probably.
They are historically illiterate, actually illiterate, any kind is fine. This was not a conscript or a wermacht regular, he was Waffen SS. Reason why I say they're historically illiterate for not picking up on "fought against the soviet union" to say the soviet union was best chums with the "good guy allies" because it's not like the United States, the British Empire or the French Empire were moral paragons either. No one is saying fighting against the Soviet Union is immoral or evil. It's a factual point that if you fought against the Soviet Union in WWII, in the eastern theatre... You were fighting in an axis formation.
It's to point out that in this country any school child could tell you fighting against the USSR in WWII means you were fighting for the axis. Nearly everyone in the Canadian parliament was applauding with a stupid smile on their face at the first opportunity to be patriotic without actually considering if they were applauding a nazi. This isn't some issue of top-secret due diligence, this is bare minimum "fought for who?" questions. Everyone who knows the bare minimum about WWII already knows about Soviet-Nazi collaboration, the partition of Poland e.t.c. and it was a common criticism in parliament during WWII that the British justification for opposing Nazi Germany on the grounds that they were genocidal and annexed Poland was undercut by allying with the Soviet Union who were genocidal and annexed Poland. Hence Churchill's quote “If Hitler invaded hell I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”
This isn't tankie nonsense. A regular citizen may be as generous to a Finnish or Ukrainian regular soldier making an alliance of convenience with the axis to try and secure independence from the Soviets; but a parliament full of politicians are the last people in the world who should be blindsided by their own standing ovations to a Waffen SS member
This is way, way way way below "oops I didn't fact check."
How the fuck do you not know who fought in WWII
HOW
AND HOW DO YOU END UP RUNNING A COUNTRY WHEN YOU DON'T KNOW THAT
Post by: Madman198237 on October 02, 2023, 11:16:15 am
My point was that fighting with the Axis isn't the be-all end-all of evil; and that the part they were blindsided by was based on their own inability to do research on exactly who they were about to acclaim in front of an entire nation and not a lack of historical comprehension. I wouldn't have a problem with praise for a Finnish soldier who may well have fought on every single side of WWII.
There were plenty of people who had no choice but to cooperate with an otherwise-enemy group by the immensely polarizing situation of the war, after all. If the Chinese communists and nationalists could work together to fight the Japanese we shouldn't be surprised that groups that absolutely do not agree (i.e., Nazis and most everyone else) might fight together to fight the immediate existential threat. And probably shouldn't hate unreasonably those who make that decision instead of, say, seeing their country fully invaded and occupied by a genocidal regime. Working with the other genocidal regime in the mix (or just your sworn enemies) is preferable to seeing your neighbors, friends, family, and self fed into a concentration camp/gulag/various atrocities the Japanese committed, after all.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 02, 2023, 12:16:17 pm
It's like the whole picture was made to order from the propagandists.
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 02, 2023, 12:41:16 pm
In point of fact there were resistance groups and nations like the Finns and Poles who at various points were not aligned with the Axis and fought against the Soviets.
My point was that fighting with the Axis isn't the be-all end-all of evil; and that the part they were blindsided by was based on their own inability to do research on exactly who they were about to acclaim in front of an entire nation and not a lack of historical comprehension. I wouldn't have a problem with praise for a Finnish soldier who may well have fought on every single side of WWII.
There were plenty of people who had no choice but to cooperate with an otherwise-enemy group by the immensely polarizing situation of the war, after all. If the Chinese communists and nationalists could work together to fight the Japanese we shouldn't be surprised that groups that absolutely do not agree (i.e., Nazis and most everyone else) might fight together to fight the immediate existential threat. And probably shouldn't hate unreasonably those who make that decision instead of, say, seeing their country fully invaded and occupied by a genocidal regime. Working with the other genocidal regime in the mix (or just your sworn enemies) is preferable to seeing your neighbors, friends, family, and self fed into a concentration camp/gulag/various atrocities the Japanese committed, after all.
I actually agree with you. None of this has any sway whatsoever in my judgement that every democratically elected politician should know better, and the appropriate time to debate the merits of joining the Waffen SS is not when hosting the men who are fighting for independence and survival are already being accused of being nazis in need of eradication. Likewise that the fairness and inevitability of war making strange friends is utterly irrelevant to the basic standard of:
1. A democratically elected politician should know which sides fought in WWII
2. A democractically elected politician should not give a standing ovation to the agents of war crimes
3. A democratically elected politician should be aware of the domestic and international consequences of defending axis fighters in parliament
Similar things happened when people started joining ISIS from European nations. It's all fine and well for an academic to begin talking about the real motives for why people are joining ISIS, but when a politician begins talking about how female ISIS fighters are joining ISIS to kill people too "politician endorses girlboss terorrism" is the headline the next day. I don't know how much clearer I can make myself; I agree with everything you say factually. I don't hate this guy. He did not deserve two standing ovations. Everyone in parliament should have known better. They are historically illiterate for not picking up that he would've fought in an axis formation. If the speaker knew the guy was Waffen SS... Well, it's even worse if you know the history but don't care.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 02, 2023, 03:00:51 pm
No matter what we, Ukrainians, think* about those people, we should turn on their brains and think about the possible consequences of such "smart" decisions. It wasn't hard to guess!!! They also majorly screwed this guy and his family.
*not that there is a unified opinion.
___________
The 14th SS Waffen Grenadier Division was a youth fascination of mine (sadly I forgot almost everything I knew), its history is complex and bloody and I hate any simplification of it into whatever side.
Fun fact: Veterans of this division stayed alive only because Polish general, commander of The Polish II Corps, saved them from being handled to the USSR because most of them were Polish citizens. Irony, considering what modern Poles think about those guys.
Post by: bloop_bleep on October 02, 2023, 06:19:00 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 03, 2023, 12:51:29 am
But of course Polish citizen doesn't equal ethnic Pole? Considering their location of activity I wouldn't be surprised for them to be ethnic Ukrainian Polish citizens.In the beginning, ALL of them were volunteer ethnic Ukrainians from Galicia, which was a pre-war region of Poland and before WW1 it was a part of Austro-Hungary. Because of the latter part it never was a part of Reishcomissariate Ukraine and was governed quite differently and, frankly speaking, as long as you weren't a Roma or a Jew it was a far better than 1939-1941 Soviet period and, for Ukrainians, at least comparable to the Polish period.
The first version of the division consisted mostly** of patriotic and very religious* young people who volunteered when Germans started recruiting in mid-1943 after their war started to go really bad.
All top officers and the majority of other officers were Germans. Many of those, including the division's commander, were already
* Plus soldiers from Roland and Nachtigall battalions which were under the direct command of Abwehr before those battalions were disbanded after relations between Ukrainian Nationalists and Germany were ruined
**AFAIK, it was the only Waffen SS unit with chaplains.
During training, elements of the division (mostly those who had some prior combat experience) were involved in anti-partisan duty in Western Ukraine\Eastern Poland fighting against partisans. Naturally, some major war crimes may have been committed during this period but I haven't seen any conclusive evidence of that.
Then this division was pushed to the front, participating in the battle of Brody, where it was defeated and surrounded. The majority were KIA, captured (being SS and collaborators it was the same as KIA but less pleasant), or dispersed and hid among supportive civilians. Some managed to breakthrough.
And, to my last breath, I will see those who perished in that battle as heroes and Ukrainian patriots who died fighting for Ukrainian freedom and who deserve to be remembered and admired far more than a random Ukrainian Red Army conscript. Anyone who calls them war criminals, traitors, monsters or whatever simply because they are EVIL SS NAZI can go F themselves with the largest object they can find. Most of them didn't even have a chance to commit any war crimes. They went volunteer>train>fight bravely>die in the first battle
__________________
After this defeat, the division was refilled with various people, including Ukrainian Red Army POWs and various collaborators who retreated with Germans from the Soviet Ukraine. Then it was used in rear-line\anti-partisan duty in Eastern Europe (mainly in Slovakia, suppressing local resistance). Those Ukrainians who think that this part of the division's history is heroic and there were no war crimes involved are... idiots who ignore evidence and common sense.
Then again, even this version of the division has way more atrocities attributed to it than it actually committed. The first major reason is Soviet propaganda, second one is the tendency of attributing actions of ALL Ukrainian collaborators to this well-known Waffen-SS division.
______
I got carried away... I can talk about this stuff for hours
Post by: scriver on October 03, 2023, 02:07:55 am
Post by: hector13 on October 03, 2023, 02:14:51 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 03, 2023, 02:25:56 am
I completely missed whatever this Canadian thing that happened was. What happened?The common Canadian L (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7sFxJbcYvg)
Post by: EuchreJack on October 03, 2023, 03:56:01 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 09, 2023, 08:32:46 am
My brother is in a hospital after getting a small piece of shrapnel in his leg. He feels good enough to curse at doctors who want to keep him for two weeks. His crew is fine. R.I.P another 2S1 Gvozdika
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 09, 2023, 09:08:19 am
Some personal news:Holy shit that's a close call. Hope he recovers swiftly Strongpoint
My brother is in a hospital after getting a small piece of shrapnel in his leg. He feels good enough to curse at doctors who want to keep him for two weeks. His crew is fine. R.I.P another 2S1 Gvozdika
Post by: scriver on October 09, 2023, 10:49:18 am
Jokes aside I hope he recovers without issues
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 09, 2023, 08:25:34 pm
Post by: brewer bob on October 10, 2023, 10:05:28 am
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/10/undersea-pipeline-damage-appears-to-be-deliberate-says-finland
Quote
“It is likely that the damage to both the gas pipeline and the communication cable is the result of external activity,” Sauli Niinistö said on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday. “The cause of the damage is not yet clear; the investigation continues.”
[...]
Local media cited unnamed government sources as saying Russian sabotage was suspected, while regional security experts said a Russian survey vessel had recently been observed in the vicinity of the pipeline.
Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said the transatlantic military alliance was “ready to share information about the destruction of Finnish and Estonian underwater infrastructure” and to “support its allies”.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 10, 2023, 11:44:17 am
Also, it must be convenient for Russians that all media is now focused on Israel's war. Our war is becoming a background one
Post by: King Zultan on October 11, 2023, 03:07:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 11, 2023, 03:20:59 am
I don't get why everyone's making a big deal about a war in Israel anyway I mean there's fighting over there all the time anyway I'm not sure what makes this new and exciting.
This one will be big and bloody (if you consider the current combined deathtoll of around 2K "not exciting" enough). It will be big and bloody even if it won't spill over to Lebanon and Syria. And it may. Also, Hamas's attack was very... graphic and hard to ignore.
At the same time, I also ask myself why Israeli doing stuff to Palestinians always gets way more attention than China doing stuff to Uyghurs or Mali doing stuff to Tuaregs, or a bunch of Middle Eastern countries doing stuff to Kurds or... it is a long list.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 11, 2023, 04:48:48 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 11, 2023, 05:33:17 am
Post by: anewaname on October 11, 2023, 07:51:43 am
Has "whataboutism" become a derogatory label?
Post by: Frumple on October 11, 2023, 09:27:05 am
Post by: nenjin on October 11, 2023, 10:00:56 am
And war fatigue is a thing. The Russian War of Aggression has been going on for a while. Sort of like how we couldn't keep being shocked and appalled by what was going on in Syria, eventually the news of attacks, new fronts opening, new atrocities starts to become commonplace.
There have been times when there was so much news coming out of Gaza etc...that we also started to tune out as Americans.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 11, 2023, 11:48:55 am
Other than that - higher oil prices benefit Russia. Diverted media and public attention benefits Russia. Israel needing the Western arms market to replenish its stocks benefits Russia. Iran having a new reason to cooperate with Russia more closely also benefits Russia.
________
The war, in my opinion, is going badly. I tend not to write much in this thread because I dislike spreading doom and gloom but I firmly believe that Ukraine is losing the war and we need some serious Black Swan to turn the tide. There are successes, sure but we spent too many resources (read lives) in the largely failed offensive and it is impossible to win the war of attrition vs Russia.
Hope that the sanctioned Russian economy won't be able to sustain the war, that there will be meaningful internal dissent or that the morale of Russian forces will go too low was misguided
Post by: Telgin on October 11, 2023, 03:27:45 pm
Anyway, I feel you on the prospects of the Ukrainian war. I try not to form strong feelings on the direction of the war since I have such limited information, but it's obvious that it's deteriorated into a grind and naively I'd expect Russia to have a lot of advantages when it comes to a long and grinding war.
That said, I'm still astonished that they're managing to keep their war effort going with the horrendous losses they keep taking. I know that they can keep feeding people into the war essentially forever and can keep a trickle of cobbled-together equipment flowing into it, on top of buying equipment from their scant allies like North Korea and Iran, but it's still astonishing that they're managing to keep up as much as they are. Will their effort suddenly collapse when the 40 artillery systems destroyed every day finally catch up to what they can replace? Or the loss of tanks and APCs? I don't know, but I'd have expected it to collapse a long time ago at this rate.
And while it appears that Ukraine is losing proportionally fewer people and equipment, I have to acknowledge that we don't know the true numbers on either side and there's a strong incentive to keep bad news hidden from public eye.
I used to hold out hope that Putin dying would bring an end to the war with Russia withdrawing, but I now doubt that would happen even if he did die in the near future. For one thing he may live another 15 years, and for another I keep reading that the people likely to replace him are just as bad.
Post by: anewaname on October 12, 2023, 03:01:09 am
and, unless other regional players attack Israel, this war will devolve into a stalemate in the ruins with a final death toll of less than 10% of what has already happened in Ukraine.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 12, 2023, 10:39:02 am
The war in Israel, for all the current noise, is a drop in the bucket compared to Ukraine. Give it a month or two for Israel to strike at all targets of value,
and, unless other regional players attack Israel, this war will devolve into a stalemate in the ruins with a final death toll of less than 10% of what has already happened in Ukraine.
By casualties, yes. But the geopolitical impact of a war isn't directly proportional to the number of dead.
Also, you made me think what 10% of Ukrainian casualties would even be... No, I won't let my brain do estimates of this kind.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 12, 2023, 11:48:27 am
Speaking of which:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/11/russias-39th-brigade-rolled-into-battle-in-some-bizarre-diy-fighting-vehicles-it-ended-badly/?sh=23a58e2e6122 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/11/russias-39th-brigade-rolled-into-battle-in-some-bizarre-diy-fighting-vehicles-it-ended-badly/?sh=23a58e2e6122)
Punchline in the end.
Post by: anewaname on October 12, 2023, 06:07:48 pm
Yes, the geo-political impact is greater, but the geo-economic impact will be less. Israel doesn't export large amounts of anything in comparison to Ukraine.
And you must have seen news coverage of other events that took away from Ukraine coverage, but then the coverage returned.
I don't like to think about the quantities of people either, but I do it because it must be done. Only the living can remember the dead.
Post by: lemon10 on October 12, 2023, 11:27:23 pm
I used to hold out hope that Putin dying would bring an end to the war with Russia withdrawing, but I now doubt that would happen even if he did die in the near future. For one thing he may live another 15 years, and for another I keep reading that the people likely to replace him are just as bad.The next one might be more evil, but evil people watch out for themselves. If the next dictator decides to stay in Ukraine it becomes *their* war. And if a dictator loses their war they often get kicked out of office for being weak.
If they leave the war as soon as they take power it won't be their war, and they won't take on any of the risk. The next dictator is totally going to leave, Russia breeds pragmatic politicians.
Anyway, I feel you on the prospects of the Ukrainian war. I try not to form strong feelings on the direction of the war since I have such limited information, but it's obvious that it's deteriorated into a grind and naively I'd expect Russia to have a lot of advantages when it comes to a long and grinding war.Most of my information on the topic comes from the excellent Perun. This video in particular (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ctrtAwT2sgs)is highly relevant to this topic.
That said, I'm still astonished that they're managing to keep their war effort going with the horrendous losses they keep taking. I know that they can keep feeding people into the war essentially forever and can keep a trickle of cobbled-together equipment flowing into it, on top of buying equipment from their scant allies like North Korea and Iran, but it's still astonishing that they're managing to keep up as much as they are. Will their effort suddenly collapse when the 40 artillery systems destroyed every day finally catch up to what they can replace? Or the loss of tanks and APCs? I don't know, but I'd have expected it to collapse a long time ago at this rate.
And while it appears that Ukraine is losing proportionally fewer people and equipment, I have to acknowledge that we don't know the true numbers on either side and there's a strong incentive to keep bad news hidden from public eye.
The reason Russia still has proper equipment left is that the Soviets left them an absurd number of old tanks, artillery, as well as other vehicles and weaponry.
They have burned through a tremendous amount of it (as seen from looking at their artillery storage parks and tank loss numbers/loss makup), but the Soviets left them *so* *much* of it they still have a good chunk of it remaining that can be easily refurbished.
Their production is nowhere near to equaling their consumption, and when they say, run out of old soviet artillery barrels things will get very grim for them and they will be forced to use merely what they can produce (and buy from china/NK).
Anyway, I feel you on the prospects of the Ukrainian war. I try not to form strong feelings on the direction of the war since I have such limited information, but it's obvious that it's deteriorated into a grind and naively I'd expect Russia to have a lot of advantages when it comes to a long and grinding war.If this was Russia vs Ukraine then Russia would have a tremendous advantage in a long and grinding war.
Advantages Russia seems keen to squander through an absurd amount of military corruption and incompetence, but advantages that would be sufficient for them to win, likely for them to have *already* won.
But this isn't Russia vs Ukraine. Its Russia vs Ukraine + a sizeable portion of the global military industrial complex. Sure they only get a small amount of said budget, but even a small amount of the weapons of all those countries adds up to a very big number.
It doesn't matter if Ukraine can't even make a single tank, or how advanced their anti-tank weaponry is, because they are getting free top of the line tanks from the west, and those MANPADS and Javelins are killing old obsolete soviet tanks just fine.
From what I can tell (although I could be wrong, I'm not an expert) if things continue in this manner Russia will eventually run out of cool stuff (and note that I'm putting tanks from the 1950s in the "cool stuff" category), and Ukraine will not.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2023, 01:54:36 am
All they need to do is hold the line, harass Ukrainian forces, do strikes with drones\missiles against infrastructure, make minor offensives here and there, and wait until Ukraine runs out of motivated manpower.
And their military-industry complex produces enough stuff to maintain this kind of war. They ramp up production of land mines, drones, missiles, and shells. They keep building new fortifications and necessary infrastructure like new railway lines. They still enjoy aerial superiority (and some potential F-16s can't cancel that) and, most importantly, they won't run out of manpower anytime soon.
I can't see victory without some kind of Black Swan in Russia or World
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 13, 2023, 08:47:57 am
If this was Russia vs Ukraine then Russia would have a tremendous advantage in a long and grinding war.If it were Russia on military footing vs Ukraine and the West on military footing, then it'd be no contest. But this is Russia with one leg in military footing, Ukraine full-on mobilised but with little production capacity, and the West half-arsedly throwing scraps and doing peace-time business.
(...)
But this isn't Russia vs Ukraine. Its Russia vs Ukraine + a sizeable portion of the global military industrial complex. Sure they only get a small amount of said budget, but even a small amount of the weapons of all those countries adds up to a very big number.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2023, 09:51:30 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 13, 2023, 10:17:59 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 13, 2023, 10:30:44 am
Do not forget the part where we are disallowed to use the shiny Western stuff to strike across the border. Sure, we kinda started production of our own drones and even produce some cruise missiles but we have no realistic way to mess with Russian logistics\industry like they do.Yeah. I think I said it before - the Western help, with few exceptions, seems designed more to make the public feel good about themselves and less concerned with actual needs on the ground.
The most concerning thing right now, imo, is you guys running out of Soviet-era AA ammunition, while there's barely anywhere that can still make it this side of the Russian mir.
The West will simply never go into full military production any time soon. We cannot afford the economic devastation. Europe least of all.There is more to chose from that between a trickle and a 100% economic mobilisation.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 13, 2023, 11:11:20 am
There is more to chose from that between a trickle and a 100% economic mobilisation.Can you name something specific you'd like?
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2023, 11:46:00 am
Post by: Laterigrade on October 13, 2023, 12:03:25 pm
I said this a bit ago in other places and got shouted down a little — and I agree, it seems fairly scattered and haphazard.Do not forget the part where we are disallowed to use the shiny Western stuff to strike across the border. Sure, we kinda started production of our own drones and even produce some cruise missiles but we have no realistic way to mess with Russian logistics\industry like they do.Yeah. I think I said it before - the Western help, with few exceptions, seems designed more to make the public feel good about themselves and less concerned with actual needs on the ground.
Post by: heydude6 on October 13, 2023, 02:33:56 pm
If the reason why the west isn't providing more substantial aid is because they are afraid of nuclear war, then losing Ukraine all but guarantees its inevitability. As a result, I find it difficult to describe NATOs actions as rational. It's simply cowardice.
Though nuclear retaliation is a genuinely scary possibility (albeit less likely than the world thinks), the truth is that it's the lesser evil here. I don't want to live in a world where the Taliban has nukes.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 13, 2023, 03:33:10 pm
We've said it before here, but I'll say it again: Having Ukraine fall to Russia will have terrible consequences on a geopolitical scale. If Russia establishes that nuclear powers can bully non-nuclear countries with impunity (sanctions are a joke), then you're going to get a lot more nuclear proliferation in the coming decades. Getting nukes is not that hard for a country, Pakistan developed their nuclear arsenal from scratch against the West's wishes and sabotage efforts.This is a pretty silly take. First of all, you overstate the ease of "getting nukes" by a lot: Iran still doesn't have them (not for lack of trying), North Korea almost certainly managed to lose theirs, despite both countries having the backing of both of the most powerful anti-west nuclear-armed states. You mention Pakistan having them and the Taliban not having them, but Pakistan is, of course, the Taliban's largest backer. Pakistan certainly had a lot of help, both open and clandestine, just as India did. Indeed, since the Soviet Union intensively spied on the US nuclear program, there's not a single nuclear arsenal in the world that doesn't chain back to the Manhattan Project. And when it comes to getting help, at least since the fall of the USSR, countries have shown reticence to give away something like that. I can definitely tell you that pretty much all of Africa wants them, but they have yet to get any of their own and relations between African countries and Russia haven't gone that far yet either.
If the reason why the west isn't providing more substantial aid is because they are afraid of nuclear war, then losing Ukraine all but guarantees its inevitability. As a result, I find it difficult to describe NATOs actions as rational. It's simply cowardice.
Though nuclear retaliation is a genuinely scary possibility (albeit less likely than the world thinks), the truth is that it's the lesser evil here. I don't want to live in a world where the Taliban has nukes.
And even after "getting nukes", that isn't enough on its own: you must also have second-strike capability to reach the vaunted "bullying other states" status, which is harder.
Second, your argument can easily apply to every instance of a nuclear power bullying non-nuclear countries with impunity since, well, the first time; and nuclear proliferation hasn't happened recently. Why not the Russian-Georgian war, or the Second Chechen war, or the Gulf wars, or the Syrian war, or the US invasion of Afghanistan? Why not Israel and Palestine? Of course, non-nuclear states still bully each other at will based on who is stronger, and have since prehistory.
As to that, the reason the west isn't providing "more substantial aid" can hardly be said to be out of a fear of nuclear war in any long-range sense. There may be a specific fear for some of Ukraine specifically getting nuked and the west having to decide how to respond to that, but not of nuclear proliferation generally. Indeed, many people in positions of power have called for more escalation, not less. The limits on western aid to Ukraine seem to be mainly ability and will. While I'm sure they would have preferred better results, the leadership still view the current situation in terms of the ground war as pretty close to the desired outcome.
Finally... the truth is that nuclear proliferation as a global force has pretty much jumped the shark. What is the use of a weapon you cannot use? Nuclear bombs are very expensive and do not actually kill people deader than any other means, of which we have plenty. Most countries have honestly realized this - they'd still like nuclear bombs and prefer that their local enemies don't get them, but it's just not a really big thing. Actually, I believe Mohammed bin Salman said exactly that in an interview a couple months ago, with respect to Saudi Arabia.
Post by: nenjin on October 13, 2023, 04:46:32 pm
I'm not going to speak to the overall ease of access to nukes. But when states with nuclear arms become failed states with nuclear arms it becomes a lot more likely.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 13, 2023, 05:31:28 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on October 13, 2023, 05:50:56 pm
Welcome to Politics...I said this a bit ago in other places and got shouted down a little — and I agree, it seems fairly scattered and haphazard.Do not forget the part where we are disallowed to use the shiny Western stuff to strike across the border. Sure, we kinda started production of our own drones and even produce some cruise missiles but we have no realistic way to mess with Russian logistics\industry like they do.Yeah. I think I said it before - the Western help, with few exceptions, seems designed more to make the public feel good about themselves and less concerned with actual needs on the ground.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 13, 2023, 05:53:28 pm
Pakistan is destabilizing as we speak due to a water crisis among other things. They have, what, over a few hundred nukes? If Pakistan collapses, all those nukes now go on the black market and proliferation by unstable actors becomes a much more likely scenario.
I'm not going to speak to the overall ease of access to nukes. But when states with nuclear arms become failed states with nuclear arms it becomes a lot more likely.
This may be a bit of a tangent, mind discussing Pakistan somewhere else? I mean, it certainly sounds like something worth discussing, just not here.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 13, 2023, 06:53:31 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 13, 2023, 07:04:55 pm
::) It's in response to an argument raised raised in the preceding post. It's not trying to start a discussion about Pakistan.It's not actually responsive to anything, though. Like... okay, Pakistan, but that doesn't have anything to do with anything I said?
Post by: heydude6 on October 13, 2023, 08:19:53 pm
Second, your argument can easily apply to every instance of a nuclear power bullying non-nuclear countries with impunity since, well, the first time; and nuclear proliferation hasn't happened recently. Why not the Russian-Georgian war, or the Second Chechen war, or the Gulf wars, or the Syrian war, or the US invasion of Afghanistan? Why not Israel and Palestine? Of course, non-nuclear states still bully each other at will based on who is stronger, and have since prehistory.
Bah! I wrote an entire post arguing against your point, but after looking at a world map, the only countries that could conceivably benefit from getting nukes are the Middle East and Moldova. The Middle East should have been motivated by Afghanistan and etc. but the fact that they haven't is evidence in your favour.
Perhaps Random Dragon (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8401896;topicseen#msg8401896) was wrong after all. Can't say I'm happy to hear that news though. The Ukraine war got more press than all the other wars, but at the end of the day it seems like the West is content to just let Russia grind away at Ukraine until it is dust.
Quote
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day
To the last syllable of recorded time,
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools
The way to dusty death. Out, out, brief candle!
NATO’s but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 13, 2023, 08:52:12 pm
the only countries that could conceivably benefit from getting nukes are the Middle East and Moldova.Uh. What?
Like, you know there's been about a coup a day in central Africa lately, right?
Quote
Perhaps Random Dragon (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8401896;topicseen#msg8401896) was wrong after all.I never saw that post before but... it looks completely nutty. Just totally outside reality.
Post by: heydude6 on October 13, 2023, 09:52:35 pm
the only countries that could conceivably benefit from getting nukes are the Middle East and Moldova.Uh. What?
Like, you know there's been about a coup a day in central Africa lately, right?
Yes. It's very tragic, I found the Niger one to be particularly interesting. It's been 2 months and ECOWAS still hasn't invaded.
Regardless though, what is a coup leader supposed to do with nukes? It seems like the main threats they face are internal rather than external ones. I find it hard to see how nuking one's own territory will help you stay in power.
I can of course imagine tinpot dictators wanting nukes, but that seems to be power for power's sake. I don't think the outcome of the ukraine war is going to affect Africa's decision to pursue nukes whatsoever. I only mentioned the nations that I did due to their proximity to Russia.
Post by: King Zultan on October 14, 2023, 02:58:25 am
Regardless though, what is a coup leader supposed to do with nukes? It seems like the main threats they face are internal rather than external ones. I find it hard to see how nuking one's own territory will help you stay in power.He could use them as a threat, a you attack me I'll blow the entire place up kind of thing, I mean what use is the territory to a coup leader if he dies so he might as well take it with him to keep the other guy from having it.
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 14, 2023, 03:15:44 am
Perhaps Random Dragon (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8401896;topicseen#msg8401896) was wrong after all. Can't say I'm happy to hear that news though. The Ukraine war got more press than all the other wars, but at the end of the day it seems like the West is content to just let Russia grind away at Ukraine until it is dust.
Oh if only I could say I was wrong. The continued extent of how fuck-all good what we're doing has done to actually stop Putin's Small Penis Misadventure means we've blown right past ending 1 (functionally the only one that qualifies as a Good End).
So far we're at the stage of hoping for Putin to commit suicide by multiple gunshots to the back of the head so we can unlock ending 2 (maybe good but a lot of fuckery is in our future).
But if this shit keeps grinding Ukraine down and the world doesn't get Article 5'd in the process, by the time we're falling ass-first into Ending 7 (the one that makes us end up wishing nuclear war will just fucking end it already by the time it finally comes) we won't have time to really recognize that we're officially in the new era of imperialism and militarism, and the eventual prospect of nuclear proliferation, until it's well and solidly too little, too late.
I'd say the fact that various other countries have decided now is the ideal time to begin starting shit is a bad sign that implies we might be getting ready to fast-track that Bad End. We've already had some of the ex-Soviet countries decide that this is a fine time for a slap fight, Sudan is doing fucked if I even know kinda drugs and is in a slap-fight with itself, Israel and Palestine have decided to have a slap fight over whether Gaza would prefer its terrorism kosher or halal...
I never saw that post before but... it looks completely nutty. Just totally outside reality.
That's fucking rich coming from an alt-right troll.
Post by: Starver on October 14, 2023, 05:15:46 am
Spoiler: ObMeme (click to show/hide)
...but we're definitely drifting. Unless we want to talk about how Ukraine once had nuclear weapons, by default. (And other FSRs, right?)
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 14, 2023, 12:10:47 pm
You're such a loon.I never saw that post before but... it looks completely nutty. Just totally outside reality.
That's fucking rich coming from an alt-right troll.
...but we're definitely drifting. Unless we want to talk about how Ukraine once had nuclear weapons, by default. (And other FSRs, right?)Kazakhstan did. Belarus also did and once gave them up, but has now entered into nuclear sharing agreements with Russia. As far as I know, that's it.
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 14, 2023, 09:53:16 pm
Post by: hector13 on October 14, 2023, 10:11:40 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 15, 2023, 12:18:24 am
Post by: King Zultan on October 15, 2023, 02:34:15 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 15, 2023, 04:02:25 am
Guess it's time to ask that question I've been wondering about for awhile, have any more Russian generals died or have they finally realized you don't put them on the front lines.
Sadly, no confirmed dead generals recently. But it may be because Russians don't like to announce this.
https://twitter.com/KilledInUkraine - this is a good source for fresh confirmed KIA Russian officers
Post by: King Zultan on October 16, 2023, 03:57:00 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 17, 2023, 08:26:46 am
Post by: Telgin on October 17, 2023, 10:39:09 am
Anyway, good to know that more capable long range missile systems were delivered I'm sure it'll make a difference, depending on how many missiles we were willing to give.
Post by: Great Order on October 17, 2023, 10:02:29 pm
Although then again, I'd be unsurprised if Russian intelligence already knew about them being moved (And I'd be unsurprised if the alert got lost somewhere in the system and it still caught Russia off-guard). Suppose it'd make no major difference either way - The moment you fire the first volley the Russians know you've got serious long-range capability. Unless you do a truly staggering alpha strike with them you're not going to make a massive difference to the overall outcome.
Still wars can be, and often are, won by a lot of small differences piling up.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 19, 2023, 12:52:54 pm
Why the hell do they continue this war? I can understand Stalin's Red Army didn't rebel against being used in meat attacks, they had no ways to coordinate, they had no way to know what is happening where and the enemy was actually of the kind that you can't just stop fighting.
Why do modern Russians agree to go in suicide attacks like the current one on Avdiivka? They know what is happening because internet. They can coordinate. They know that no one is going to invade Russia. Why the hell do those suicidal morons keep fighting?
Post by: anewaname on October 19, 2023, 03:39:49 pm
Every military has some type of "military police" and Putin has called himself a Chekist (Lenin's Cheka). You can bet that the Russian military includes covert military police and political officers, and they point machine guns at the suicide wave and tell them to charge the enemy.
This is the most dangerous thing about living in a nation that allows conscripted citizens to be used in offensive wars, because the people in charge of the conscription always send "unwanted citizens" into the most dangerous units and most dangerous conflicts, and the leaders start offensive wars as a reason to send those unwanted citizens to their death. During the first Russian conscription, the Russians who protested on the street or tried to avoid conscription... how many of them do you think were part of those suicide attacks?
Post by: Maximum Spin on October 19, 2023, 03:59:42 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 19, 2023, 04:17:18 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 19, 2023, 04:34:54 pm
That's not a Russian thing... it is what has been happened with every military for thousands of years. The guys who are conscripted as "cannon fodder" don't have a choice. If you do not obey, you are a traitor and may be killed, and your family may be imprisoned or killed. If you obey, it is just you that will be killed.
No, this explanation doesn't work. It worked for Stalin's time, but it doesn't work now. No one in Russia will bother imprisoning or killing relatives. It is not how their current incompetent fascism works. And no military police is enough to control a sufficiently unhappy army that can easily cooperate and communicate. Also, Russian professional army is also sent into suicidal attacks again and again.
Even in the Ukrainian army, as people are getting tired and as less and less motivated categories are getting mobilized, we are getting steadily increasing numbers of deserters and disobeyed orders. And it is natural. People want to live.
Maybe it is the explanation, their lives are so awful that all are just suicidal.
______________________
Quote
Russian law actually forbids using conscripts in combat
It is kinda true for annual conscription but I think anewaname meants conscripted as non-professional aka mobilized
Post by: anewaname on October 20, 2023, 02:07:43 am
I am still not sure how that compares to what Russia is doing, but I meant the Russian conscription that happened about 6 months into the war, where you saw videos of people being grabbed off the streets. Those that resisted the conscription or protested the conscription, probably were sent into the ever-dangerous infantry units. It is a buy-one-get-two bargain for the Russian government, to have a cannon fodder guy and to lose a protestor.
It would be interesting to see if a larger ratio of Russians were conscripted from the more culturally diverse Russian regions than from the Moscow area.
Post by: Duuvian on October 20, 2023, 05:45:54 am
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19-2023
A prominent Russian information space voice targeted two members of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle with accusations of corruption. Russian lawyer Kirill Kachur, whom the Russian Investigative Committee charged in absentia for embezzlement and bribery in 2022 and who claims to have insider knowledge about internal Kremlin politics, accused Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergei Naryshkin and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin of causing over one trillion rubles ($10.3 billion) of damage to the Russian economy through bribes and tax breaks from Russian businessmen since Mishustin’s appointment as head of the Russian Federal Tax Service in 2010.[33] Kachur also criticized businessman Alexander Udodov, Federal Security Service (FSB) General Ivan Tkachev, and FSB Colonel Sergei Natarov for enabling and protecting Mishustin.[34] Kachur’s complaint notably focuses on the current poor state of the Russian economy and the negative impact of such a high monetary loss amid a broader Russian focus on the federal budget.[35] Kachur claimed that the Russian Investigative Committee and FSB are currently investigating Mishustin and Naryshkin; ISW has observed no corroboration of Kachur’s claims from other Russian sources, and Russian officials have not commented on these claims.[36]
Post by: Strongpoint on October 20, 2023, 08:41:44 am
I am still not sure how that compares to what Russia is doing, but I meant the Russian conscription that happened about 6 months into the war, where you saw videos of people being grabbed off the streets. Those that resisted the conscription or protested the conscription, probably were sent into the ever-dangerous infantry units. It is a buy-one-get-two bargain for the Russian government, to have a cannon fodder guy and to lose a protestor.No, Russian drafting doesn't work like this. Millions of people received draft summons. Smart people promptly ignored those and to this date, the number of people imprisoned for ignoring a draft summon is ZERO.
Russia mobilizes loyal citizens. Russian opposition is not there. Ethnic minorities are disproportionally represented, yes.
Post by: anewaname on October 20, 2023, 01:49:34 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I expected Russia would be more aggressive about enforcement, but maybe they don't need to.
Post by: King Zultan on October 21, 2023, 04:18:55 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 21, 2023, 08:19:27 am
I bet they'll start getting more aggressive about it when they finally run out of dumb asses that join willingly.
Sure, as much as the elections of Putin are a farce I expect no drastic mobilization until after the Russian presidential elections in March. After that Russia may go full on human waves
Post by: martinuzz on October 23, 2023, 01:26:44 pm
Post by: martinuzz on October 24, 2023, 01:35:43 am
Before, women only worked in the army as medical staff or kitchen staff.
I guess they are running out of willing men.
British Intelligence estimates that 190 thousand men have been either killed or wounded in such a way that they will never fight again.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 24, 2023, 03:43:36 am
British Intelligence estimates that 190 thousand men have been either killed or wounded in such a way that they will never fight again.
Source (https://vxtwitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1715968466501472576) so nobody has to go looking for it.
This is a number that requires context. First of all, it does not include any casualties suffered by Wagner Group or their prisoner battalions. Explicitly. Second, if you add in the temporarily wounded claims from the UK, you get between 240,000 and 290,000 total casualties for Russia. It is also worth comparing to other wars.
In the Vietnam War, the United States suffered 58,281 KIA and 303,644 WIA. Of the latter group, 153,303 needed hospital attention. If we assume that all of that hospital group was permanently disabled (they weren't), you would get 211584 as the US equivalent to the figure the UK is claiming for Russia. The US total figure from Vietnam is 361925.
Meaning that, if the UK is right and applying the most generous-to-Russia possible interpretation of the data, Russia is already coming close to what the US lost in Vietnam. Except that the main US involvment in Vietnam was a 9 year span from 1963 to 1972.
US casualties in WWI (1917-1918) were 116,708 KIA and 204,002 WIA. Far less than the Russian figures. The US only fought in the last year and a half of that war, but were caught in some of the most violent battles.
US casualties in WWII (1942-1945) were 407,300 KIA and 671,801 WIA. Greater than the current Russian figures, but in three years instead of two.
Post by: heydude6 on October 24, 2023, 08:46:38 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 26, 2023, 09:40:23 am
The visiting group is reportedly led by Mousa Mohammed Abu Marzook, a senior representative of the militant organization.
No official visit has been announced, and it is unclear who the delegation plans to meet with.
Khe, khe, khe. I think it will help Israeli-Russian relations tremendously.
Post by: martinuzz on October 26, 2023, 08:43:21 pm
According to John Kirby 'we have information that Russia actually executed soldiers for refusing to follow orders.'
'Furthermore, we have information that Russian commanders threaten to execute entire units if they retreat to escape Ukrainian artillery fire'.
Post by: King Zultan on October 27, 2023, 05:22:21 am
Post by: Strongpoint on November 06, 2023, 10:04:56 am
So, looks like Ukrainian special forces did an operation in Sudan killing Wagner's fighters. (it is not definitely proven that it is Sudan and Wagner, ofc, but I see Kyiv Post as a reliable source)
_________________________
It will be a long, long war waged in many ways and in many places. Intensity and methods may change but it won't be over until either Ukraine or Russia cease to exist as political entities and probably even beyond that
Post by: Starver on November 08, 2023, 04:29:06 pm
(...to summarise the reported info. Obviously facts/intentions are sparse and one-sided, at the moment, but interesting to note in passing.)
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 09, 2023, 09:49:18 am
The further into the war we get the more Russia devolves back to what it was during WWI.We've already seen guns from the Russian Empire being fielded. Pre-WWI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZR9PaQkj2MIdk if Ukraine would send special forces all the way to Sudan in the middle of a war where they need all hands on deck. It could be any number of white-skinned mercenary groups who are fighting against Wagner group, e.g. south africans or zimbabweans. Or americans. Or it could even be Ukrainian mercenaries... Or in the funniest twist of fate, Russian mercenaries
So, looks like Ukrainian special forces did an operation in Sudan killing Wagner's fighters. (it is not definitely proven that it is Sudan and Wagner, ofc, but I see Kyiv Post as a reliable source)
_________________________
It will be a long, long war waged in many ways and in many places. Intensity and methods may change but it won't be over until either Ukraine or Russia cease to exist as political entities and probably even beyond that
Post by: Strongpoint on November 09, 2023, 10:25:29 am
Quote from: Loud Whispers
Idk if Ukraine would send special forces all the way to Sudan in the middle of a war where they need all hands on deck.
I am hearing this a lot and I don't get this logic. The main idea of a war is hurting your enemy. Striking against Russian assets anywhere in the world is exactly the job for special forces. Why would they limit themselves to Ukraine? Especially considering that special forces are harder to use on a battlefield of a full-scale war.
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 09, 2023, 10:53:29 am
I am hearing this a lot and I don't get this logic. The main idea of a war is hurting your enemy. Striking against Russian assets anywhere in the world is exactly the job for special forces. Why would they limit themselves to Ukraine? Especially considering that special forces are harder to use on a battlefield of a full-scale war.UK military logic is warfare is about getting your enemy to do what you want them to do, and ultimately to get them to not want to fight anymore. Sometimes this is about killing your enemy, but there are times when this is counter-productive. E.g. leaving an enemy with no surrender is likely to prolong the fight not end it. Very famous quote from a British officer where he successfully managed to trick the Italians in WWII into thinking the British were going to attack Somaliland instead of Djibouti, when the British were actually planning to attack Djibouti. The expectation was that the Italians would reinforce Somaliland, leaving Djibouti open. Instead the Italians retreated from Somaliland to Djibouti. Hence the quote "I realised now my goal was not to trick the Italians, but to get them to do what we wanted."
Same sort of logic. History is full of many cases where killing your enemy is worse than letting them live. During the Napoleonic wars Commodore Philip Sidney Smith negotiated the surrender of Jean-Baptiste Kleber's french garrison at Alexandria. The British would have gained Alexandria, all the French guns, and in turn would have ferried the French troops as well as Kleber back to France, with no casualties on either side. The British admiralty under Admiral Kieth however overruled the commodore and they assaulted Alexandria. After thousands of deaths on both sides, the French got the exact same terms of surrender, except now thousands were dead on both sides, including Kleber who was one of the few high ranking officers who openly criticised and mocked Napoleon.
History anecdotes aside, I'm not saying it's impossible or illogical for Ukrainian special forces to travel to Sudan to kill Wagner fighters. It's just... Isn't that a poor use of scarce resources? It's not about just the geographical proximity to Ukraine, it's about the purpose and the cost involved. Traveling all the way to an interior landlocked nation to take shots at mercenaries who don't really impact the course of the war or have any political importance just seems like a high investment for low reward. Stuff like Ukrainian special forces conducting deep amphibious raids to blow up Crimean bridges vital to supplying front-line Russian trenches or conducting drone strikes deep inside Russian territory against Russian air fields force Russia to spend vast quantities of resources defending their assets against potential future commando raids.
This could just be a failure of my imagination though. On second review I could definitely see the Ukrainian government sending Ukrainian special forces to kill Wagner group as part of a strategy to deprive Russia of gold used to dodge sanctions. (https://www.newarab.com/analysis/sudans-gold-precious-metal-used-fund-conflicts) And Ukrainian special forces working in conjunction with Sudanese armed forces could actually serve as a very cost-effective deployment of forces with an outsized impact on the Ukrainian war
Post by: anewaname on November 09, 2023, 11:20:09 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on November 22, 2023, 01:28:23 pm
A very hard-to-watch documentary about Mariupol. For USA (or VPN) only.
Post by: Random_Dragon on November 22, 2023, 06:59:43 pm
A very hard-to-watch documentary about Mariupol. For USA (or VPN) only.
Hard to watch in the sense of morbid/heartbreaking, or hard to watch in the sense of inaccurate/biased? Probably useful to know before giving it a watch.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 22, 2023, 07:31:44 pm
Hard to watch in the sense that you need to set up a VPNA very hard-to-watch documentary about Mariupol. For USA (or VPN) only.
Hard to watch in the sense of morbid/heartbreaking, or hard to watch in the sense of inaccurate/biased? Probably useful to know before giving it a watch.
Post by: martinuzz on November 23, 2023, 03:12:03 am
Post by: Strongpoint on November 23, 2023, 03:16:10 am
That's weird. I can't watch it either from the Netherlands. Didn't know USA did that kind of censorshipIt is distribution rights, not censorship.
Post by: MaxTheFox on November 23, 2023, 04:00:54 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 23, 2023, 04:03:58 am
Post by: Starver on November 23, 2023, 06:32:28 am
You really need an attempt at more info in the "executive summary". Especially if you think they might never actually watch it anyway. - This is a general call to all posters (knowing that I might occasionally be somewhat taciturn about links (rarely to Youtube) that might be insufficiently explained even by the hover-text), not just this instance.
[1] I might "open in new tab" for the linking post/page, so I can get on with reading and (when I remember![2]) come straight back to it when I'm returned to wifi with time to spare... assuming an hour, just in case it's a full documentary).
[2] Just checked, I've got a "what tv shows are you currently watching?" and three "Ameripols" sitting in this state, at least, all look to be more than a week of vintage and I ought to run through them shortly...
Post by: Strongpoint on November 23, 2023, 05:28:12 pm
Fresh news from BBC
Victoria Amelina: Ukrainian writer dies after Kramatorsk strike (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66083275)
And some old news from BBC
Aren't those headlines cute? A Russian performing for invaders on a military object in a foreign country getting a missile on her head - killed
A Ukrainian eating in a completely civilian diner getting the same - died.
I am so... sooooooo tired of this kind of stuff during the past years...
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 23, 2023, 06:07:08 pm
Russian actress killed in Ukrainian strike on event for troops (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67495384)That's more to do with the timeline of death rather than an editorial stance, the Russian actress was killed in the strike whilst the Ukrainian writer died in hospital after the strike. Beeb can hardly be called pro-russian war
Fresh news from BBC
Victoria Amelina: Ukrainian writer dies after Kramatorsk strike (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66083275)
And some old news from BBC
Aren't those headlines cute? A Russian performing for invaders on a military object in a foreign country getting a missile on her head - killed
A Ukrainian eating in a completely civilian diner getting the same - died.
I am so... sooooooo tired of this kind of stuff during the past years...
Post by: Strongpoint on November 24, 2023, 03:48:23 am
Russian actress killed in Ukrainian strike on event for troops (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67495384)That's more to do with the timeline of death rather than an editorial stance, the Russian actress was killed in the strike whilst the Ukrainian writer died in hospital after the strike. Beeb can hardly be called pro-russian war
Fresh news from BBC
Victoria Amelina: Ukrainian writer dies after Kramatorsk strike (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66083275)
And some old news from BBC
Aren't those headlines cute? A Russian performing for invaders on a military object in a foreign country getting a missile on her head - killed
A Ukrainian eating in a completely civilian diner getting the same - died.
I am so... sooooooo tired of this kind of stuff during the past years...
Perhaps, but that dead vs killed thing is rather common
Dozens dead as air strike hits Ukraine funeral wake (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/67018505)
I'd very much prefer a "Dozens were killed by a Russian airstrike" type of headline. Headlines have a serious emotional impact.
Also, I don't even understand why the death of some Russian nobody morale-booster performer deserves an article on BBC. It is not like she was a pop star or something.
Post by: EuchreJack on November 24, 2023, 04:10:28 am
Kill 1 precious little snowflake...ALERT ALERT ALERT!!!!!!!!!
...media runs on clickbait.
Post by: Starver on November 24, 2023, 06:35:03 am
Man dies in shootout with police (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-67517446) (UK)
Flooding/floods have killed people in Kenya (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67517142)
People in car killed when it crashes and explodes on US/Canada border (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67505126)
Frenzied knife attack continued even after the victim had died (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67517532) (South Korea)
Being immersed in English, I do understand the difference between passive and active voice (if that's it). But there's a lot of linguistic leeway, just because we like varying the way we phrase things and also use a broad breadth of
(The "Fan dies at concert" articles I came across couldn't have been written as "...killed at", however. This side of any sort of "gross corporate manslaughter" rulings, at least. Other than that, I used the first few articles that looked like they might mention "kill/die", and the primary use (paraphrased as needed).
And the last had "killed" and "killing" in another bit, e.g., which might have prompted the stylistic variation to choose "died" to avoid too much internal repitition. As well as individual reporters (assigned randomly/by being the duty reporter for the given time/location/subject) perhaps having a personal preference to one form of language, the opposite can(/will?) also be possible. Perhaps they like to not stick to the one version. Within an article (including paragraphs or phrases that ended up cut out by subeditors tightening it up for publication, who might or might not switch the words used for their own reasons), or between subsequent write-ups, treatments and incidents reported (that you might or might not have seen).
Or am I missing a huge actual bias, that even I'm not immune to? And I, of course, don't know how a professional translator would accurately and idiomatically render the English into your own language. Given how much the language used can shape perception (https://terratranslations.com/2022/03/29/how-language-shapes-our-perception-of-gender/)... And English is a mongrel language.
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 24, 2023, 07:30:16 am
Perhaps, but that dead vs killed thing is rather commonBBC very much tries to avoid overly emotional headlines. It's not a private media company but a state funded one, so they try to avoid clickbait tier headlines. More focused on reporting the news than sensationalising it. Compare that to headlines which have been deliberately underplayed at CNN, e.g. "explosion at refugee camp kills dozens" without mentioning that the explosion was caused by an air strike. Evidently whether you wrote "dozens dead after explosion at refugee camp" or "dozens killed" it's more important to establish the cause of death. And in both cases the BBC makes clear the cause. Especially since as per the previous article, they use "dozens dead as air strike hits ukraine funeral wake" because they were reporting on a case where rescue attempts were ongoing and the total dead was yet to be known. It's fairly standard for BBC editorial policy
Dozens dead as air strike hits Ukraine funeral wake (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/67018505)
I'd very much prefer a "Dozens were killed by a Russian airstrike" type of headline. Headlines have a serious emotional impact.
Quote from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-40010124
Manchester attack: 22 dead and 59 hurt in suicide bombing, 23 May 2017In the end there were 22 dead and over 1,000 injured and if you think they choose to write the headline as "22 dead" instead of "22 killed" because the BBC is sympathetic to ISIS I have an edible hat to sell you
Also, I don't even understand why the death of some Russian nobody morale-booster performer deserves an article on BBC. It is not like she was a pop star or something.Because it's news?
Putin encouraged Russian celebrities to support his war at the front. One of these celebrities and at least two dozen marines got killed by a HIMARS strike. The reaction to Russian authorities allowing Russian celebrities and a high concentration of Russian soldiers to congregate under missile range was negative, even amongst pro-war bloggers. I had never heard of this Polina but you can bet everyone in Russia will hear of her now that she's died
Post by: scriver on November 24, 2023, 10:37:51 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 24, 2023, 11:17:14 am
in Swedish, the word (or rather its direct cognate I guess) die is not just something a person does themselves but directly tied to killing – we say that "he deaded him" when we say "he killed him" for example.that's an adorable bit of language
I do wonder if this was not too different in English 1,000 years ago. I'm not an expert in Old English but I do know they had two verbs for "to die/is dying" and one of them "swelt" has only barely survived today as "sweltering heat." And they share a lot of common ancestral roots with other germanic languages that became stuff like Danish, Swedish, Dutch e.t.c.
One of the interesting things is that in the last 500 years print has shifted favour from listing people "is dead" to "killed" or "has died." Idk why but some time around the age of enlightenment people started writing death as a state in the past indicating a change of state rather than a continuous state moving into the present
Post by: Egan_BW on November 24, 2023, 04:57:44 pm
After all, all of you was once chemicals which were in something that died. Are you dead? If not, death is something in the past.
Post by: King Zultan on November 25, 2023, 02:50:07 am
Also what's happening with this war haven't really seen any info recently with the current shit going on in the middle east.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 25, 2023, 03:22:01 am
Everything is ether dead or dying.
Also what's happening with this war haven't really seen any info recently with the current shit going on in the middle east.
Nothing much. War of attrition with bloody push-pull on the frontline + constant missile\drone strikes (Like a few hours ago a large swarm of drones attacked Kyiv). War of attrition that Russia is clearly winning because they have more of... well... everything.
Post by: Starver on November 25, 2023, 12:25:56 pm
They "attritionising" Ukraine, but it seems they're not "unattritioned" themselves (they're even going back to recruiting from their own prison populations, with or without the Wagner touch, it seems, as well as conscripting active/prominant anti-'SVO' individuals). They must be hiding much of it, that we're even seeing what signs of it that we see.
Mother Russia is hurting, I am fairly sure. If we can (in what ways we can) assuage Ukraine's own pains then I can see it not being as hopeless as some interpretations might go as far to say. Winter is probably going to be as much an enemy as the 'glorious' forces sent in by Moscow. And to them as well.
Post by: MaxTheFox on November 25, 2023, 08:18:26 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on November 25, 2023, 09:01:42 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on November 26, 2023, 03:05:36 am
I thought that the West is just too careful, too uncoordinated, and too unprepared. Looking back, I am now sure that It is a deliberate well-calculated strategy to give us just enough (in small doses) so we don't collapse but don't give too much so we can't accidentally win.
End goal? Grind Russia to a point when it will agree to stop keeping whatever it managed to capture and return to business as usual but negotiate more profitable deals because Russia is somewhat weakened.
But the funniest thing is that Russia doesn't even get weaker.
They have more motivated battle-hardened experienced troops than they had before the invasion.
They did spend a lot of hardware stockpiled over decades but they are steadily increasing production and will replace it rather quickly. In a way, they made modernization of their armed forces easier.
Their economy is steadily growing.
The internal stability of Russia is also absolutely fine. Dissent is nearly non-existent.
I don't know what kind of Black Swan is needed for Ukraine to approach anything resembling victory... Well, whatever, our moral duty is to kill as many of them as we can and don't bother about stuff we can't change. All of the world is going to hell anyway, we are just among those in the front seats
Post by: MaxTheFox on November 26, 2023, 06:02:50 am
Or, at least, I hope. Without hope a person is nothing.
Post by: hedgerow on November 26, 2023, 10:01:28 am
Oil Spill (https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/oil-spill-louisiana-coast-plaquemines-parish-gulf-of-mexico)
We wouldn't really suffer the smell of skunkfish this late in the year though.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 26, 2023, 06:46:34 pm
I thought that the West is just too careful, too uncoordinated, and too unprepared. Looking back, I am now sure that It is a deliberate well-calculated strategy to give us just enough (in small doses) so we don't collapse but don't give too much so we can't accidentally win.
You're vastly overestimating how deep Western stockpiles of a lot of critical munitions are and how much it actually takes to spin production up. Most of the munitions that Ukraine badly needs have spent the last thirty years or more at production levels suitable only for training, which is just enough to expend shells and rockets that are hitting their expiration dates. Even if you could get taxpayers to sign off on it, you rapidly run out of places to put the things. Making things worse, all of NATO's warplans expected a short war - if WW3 ever kicked off, it was generally assumed that the war would be over in six to nine months max even without nukes - this kind of two year war that's clearly stabilizing to where it could easily last another two was considered literally impossible. Western governments have already spent literally billions of dollars expanding ammunition production, but it isn't as simple as just turning up a production dial - a lot of hardware has to actually be assembled, workers need to be hired, raw materials need to be allocated, etc.
An all-up shooting war uses up material in ludicrous quantities. In the short time that Ukraine has had ATACMS missiles they've probably already fired more in combat than the US has fired in combat or training since the things were invented. It is probable that more 6" class artillery shells have been fired by Ukraine in this war than the US has fired since Vietnam, possibly even since WWII. The same is true about just about every munition system that's seeing action, even discounting the handful of prototypes that haven't even made it to US service yet. And the stocks are getting worryingly low - enough so that many non-US NATO partners are starting to hit the "what if WE get into a war and have nothing to fight with" level.
Post by: anewaname on November 26, 2023, 11:55:56 pm
When the aggressor in a war is unable to progress, it is they who are losing, and it won't be long before the news media stops spinning "Ukraine counterattack stalemating", and starts with "you know, Russia hasn't progressed at all this year, and they started this war". Russia will continue to stockpile manpower or weapons, so they can attempt overwhelming attacks like the recent ones at Kiev and Avdiivka, precisely because they need a win this year. Presumably, the Russian's will find the Ukrainians are dug in as deep as the Russians are.
There is an authoritarian push for dominance in multiple "democratic" nations, and those political battles need to play out.
Post by: MaxTheFox on November 27, 2023, 12:05:48 am
This fight was never going to be won through conventional means (because of the differences in production and manpower, and because those sources of production and manpower couldn't be effectively attacked), it was always going to be won through other means and those other means haven't presented themselves yet.(https://i.postimg.cc/yNWkT7DY/image.png)
When the aggressor in a war is unable to progress, it is they who are losing, and it won't be long before the news media stops spinning "Ukraine counterattack stalemating", and starts with "you know, Russia hasn't progressed at all this year, and they started this war". Russia will continue to stockpile manpower or weapons, so they can attempt overwhelming attacks like the recent ones at Kiev and Avdiivka, precisely because they need a win this year. Presumably, the Russian's will find the Ukrainians are dug in as deep as the Russians are.
There is an authoritarian push for dominance in multiple "democratic" nations, and those political battles need to play out.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 27, 2023, 12:31:52 am
I thought that the West is just too careful, too uncoordinated, and too unprepared. Looking back, I am now sure that It is a deliberate well-calculated strategy to give us just enough (in small doses) so we don't collapse but don't give too much so we can't accidentally win.
You're vastly overestimating how deep Western stockpiles of a lot of critical munitions are and how much it actually takes to spin production up. Most of the munitions that Ukraine badly needs have spent the last thirty years or more at production levels suitable only for training, which is just enough to expend shells and rockets that are hitting their expiration dates. Even if you could get taxpayers to sign off on it, you rapidly run out of places to put the things. Making things worse, all of NATO's warplans expected a short war - if WW3 ever kicked off, it was generally assumed that the war would be over in six to nine months max even without nukes
It doesn't explain the dosage of things the West already had in stockpiles. There are no non-political reasons why we couldn't get, for example, cluster munitions earlier. Or Slovakian\Polish Mig-29s. Or cruise missiles to hit Russian logistics. Having those earlier would save lives, having those earlier would not give Russians time to build fortifications.
Also, almost two years has passed. I fail to believe that, having sufficient political will, the West couldn't significantly ramp up their military production.
As I said, it is not like there are no good people in the West who want us to win. But I am confident that there are groups that actively work against us, who like this bloody status quo and averaged "political will" is not directed toward Ukrainian victory.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 27, 2023, 10:31:03 am
Reason? They dislike the competition from Ukrainian truckers who outcompete them after this treaty (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/summary/eu-ukraine-agreement-on-the-carriage-of-freight-by-road.html) was signed.
Not only this blockade has a predictable effect on our barely alive economy, but militarily significant cargo like FPV drones or winter clothing is also stuck. Also, all those trucks are in huge jam and serve as a really juicy target for Russian ballistic missiles, should they decide to strike.
Looks like Poland is now reasonably confident that Russia won't get to their border anyway so hurting our war effort for their benefit is fine.
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 27, 2023, 10:50:03 am
Post by: Strongpoint on November 27, 2023, 09:13:04 pm
The truckers are blockading the border crossings because they think they've been thrown under the bus by government policies favouring the Ukrainian cause. So unless you think the truckers represent the entirety of Poland or that they are protesting on behest of the government, what you said makes no sense.
I think that the government has ways to deal with such protests if it really wants to (and I think that the next one, when it will be finally allowed to form, will likely do exactly that).
I also think that counter-protests could at least try to oppose that but I haven't heard about such attempts.
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 28, 2023, 05:24:11 am
There have been protests before where local interests were threatened, as with the Ukrainian grain (which was similarly 'outcompeting' ours). This is normal. You can't contrast protecting one's own interests with support for the war effort. They're not in opposition.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 28, 2023, 08:44:09 am
______
Back to the news. Wife of the head of the Ukrainian Mllitary intelligence was poisoned by heavy metals. She seems to be doing fine and is currently being treated.
A small reminder that this war is fought in many ways.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 30, 2023, 07:42:02 am
Meanwhile, for the past two weeks, Ukrainian-Polish border is more or less blockaded by Polish haulers with no trucks allowed to go in or out.
And now their Slovakian colleagues announced that they will do the same on the Ukrainian-Slovakian border starting tomorrow.
Cool!
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 30, 2023, 07:13:30 pm
Polish trucker told the Ukrainian delegation they would "celebrate New Year's in a queue."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-ready-evacuate-stranded-truckers-polish-protests-persist-2023-11-24/
This occurrence of manufacturing a mini humanitarian crisis for Ukrainians while working to hurt the economy during what is happening in Ukraine right now is unbelievable to me. Can really feel the solidarity from these numbnuts. I used to have some sympathy for the truckers but this is beyond the pale.
I hope Polish government will help Ukraine out. They have a responsibility here.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 01, 2023, 06:54:37 am
A huge crowd came onto the streets after a tiny, insignificant, and absolutely peaceful student protest was viciously beaten by riot police a day before. What is known as Euromaidan or the Revolution of Dignity has begun.
Ten years there has been no peace in my Ukraine. Ten years of the best sons and daughters of my nation going away. Ten years each year is worse than the one before... And it is not even Ukraine, all of this decade I see one triumph of evil after another. From the worst guys winning the Syrian Civil War and Talbian return, to total failure of freedom movements all over the world from Venezuela to Hong Kong, to the new rise of radical Islamism, to China casually genociding Uighurs with no consequences whatsoever, to neo-fascism becoming worryingly popular in Western countries, to...
I need some good news, damn it.
Post by: EuchreJack on December 04, 2023, 04:28:36 am
Post by: Starver on December 07, 2023, 05:41:33 pm
(On paper, Russia shouldn't have ever had a problem with manpower, for such a 'local' war. Again, reality seems to gnawing at the hands of those who initially assumed a quickly assured "military intervention" would be enough.)
Post by: anewaname on December 07, 2023, 06:52:16 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 07, 2023, 06:57:47 pm
The number of foreigners they can manipulate into joining their military is probably too small to matter, let alone the typical migrant's poor ability to fight in this sort of war. Though, if the Russians can use people as bait to both waste Ukrainian ammunition and spot for indirect fire...Foreigners, convicts, minorities, anyone who won't be missed and can be trusted to endure front line trenches with no rotation without upsetting any families in St Petersburg or Moscow (https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/10/25/russia-putin-is-using-ethnic-minorities-to-fight-in-ukraine)
Not to mention Putin has to massively increase active serving personnel throughout Russia and their border with Ukraine, to stop Ukrainian raids into Russian territory, to deter a potential NATO intervention & to thwart any civilian demonstrations or military mutinies. It's a bit of a weird way to try and win a war by pointing the guns inwards (https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-rosgvardia-national-guard-vladimir-putin-wagner-group-mutiny-1818187)
Post by: MaxTheFox on December 08, 2023, 01:35:28 am
Post by: Strongpoint on December 08, 2023, 03:30:36 am
_________
Meanwhile, Navalny and co are calling for Russians to do a very effective act of resistance and... go vote in the elections for anyone but Putin! How increasing the turnover of fake elections can hurt Putin is beyond my understanding but as a Russian classic once said "You can't understand Russia with your mind"
Post by: scriver on December 08, 2023, 08:13:00 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 08, 2023, 08:24:59 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on December 09, 2023, 03:52:35 pm
Any autocratic regime that openly ignores the opinion of the people it rules does so at great peril, which is why Putin's Russia uses sham elections to draw legitimacy in the first place. Inroads to that legitimacy are a much bigger threat than people realize.
Post by: MaxTheFox on December 10, 2023, 03:41:35 am
Post by: Telgin on December 10, 2023, 10:15:24 am
Post by: Starver on December 10, 2023, 11:55:23 am
Post by: Strongpoint on December 10, 2023, 12:06:11 pm
Do people face any pressure to vote for Putin, or threats if they don't? Or do the elections appear to be totally fair and without coercion?Russian elections are merely "counted" in a "correct" way. Everything else is always democratic-looking.
Post by: anewaname on December 10, 2023, 11:15:23 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on December 11, 2023, 06:22:41 am
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 11, 2023, 08:32:00 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on December 11, 2023, 10:19:04 am
You might be constripted howeverI'm exempt for several reasons, mainly being female, only men get conscripted.
Post by: nenjin on December 11, 2023, 12:39:47 pm
Post by: King Zultan on December 12, 2023, 04:08:23 am
Post by: Telgin on December 12, 2023, 09:44:01 am
I feel like it would be a turning point in public favor against the war if they tried.
Of course, they also have literally millions of people they can burn through before that would be needed so I don't think we'd see it anyway.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 12, 2023, 12:27:32 pm
Post by: Great Order on December 12, 2023, 12:44:37 pm
In this case, taking parts of Russia and deporting the local Russian population.
In other news, Donald Tusk is calling for more to be done to help Ukraine. Not convinced it'll result in anything, but I hope.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 12, 2023, 01:04:25 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on December 13, 2023, 08:03:18 pm
I was just wondering about that actually, but assumed that in seriousness it wouldn't get to that point. Russian culture is very "traditional" in that regard, isn't it? Women aren't allowed in combat positions in the Russian army, right?This is correct. If they started drafting women into combat, there would have been a shitstorm.
I feel like it would be a turning point in public favor against the war if they tried.
Of course, they also have literally millions of people they can burn through before that would be needed so I don't think we'd see it anyway.
I think counting on a highly corrupt and lgbtphobic regime not throwing you into the meat grinder could be construed as overconfidence.Nah they don't target LGBT people like that (yet?). I highly doubt they are even aware, anyhow. I'm not active on Russian social media.
Guys please stop worrying about me, if someone like me gets drafted it means Russia has basically lost and is "Scraping The Barrel". lmfao
Post by: EuchreJack on December 15, 2023, 09:00:31 am
Also discussed Ukraine's 5th Tank Brigade.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/ukraine-has-formed-a-new-tank-brigade-and-we-finally-know-what-tanks-its-getting/?sh=12a492c3460c (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/ukraine-has-formed-a-new-tank-brigade-and-we-finally-know-what-tanks-its-getting/?sh=12a492c3460c)
Post by: nenjin on December 15, 2023, 09:57:53 am
Guys please stop worrying about me, if someone like me gets drafted it means Russia has basically lost and is "Scraping The Barrel". lmfao
Oh don't sell yourself short.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 15, 2023, 02:08:23 pm
Forbes magazine has a large rebuke for Pro-Russian Republicans.
Also discussed Ukraine's 5th Tank Brigade.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/ukraine-has-formed-a-new-tank-brigade-and-we-finally-know-what-tanks-its-getting/?sh=12a492c3460c (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/ukraine-has-formed-a-new-tank-brigade-and-we-finally-know-what-tanks-its-getting/?sh=12a492c3460c)
Designers of Leopard 1 would be very surprised to learn that those will see action in 2023. I think it will be a reserve army used to patch holes with tactical counterattacks. In this role, they are way more useful than many may assume. Using those for breakthroughs is suicidal.
Also, thanks Denmark. AFAIK, most of those are formerly Danish
Post by: Lord Shonus on December 15, 2023, 07:09:46 pm
It does, however, have very good mobility, fully up-to-date electronics and gun stabilization (that's the entire point of the A5 modification), and the gun is fully capable of taking out T-55s, T-62s, and at least earlier model T-72s with ease. They're likely to be a lot more useful than you might think.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 18, 2023, 06:37:41 am
Some Ukrainian sociology on trust in social institutions. We do need to find a way to reelect the parliament somehow, war isn't going anywhere and those incompetent and corrupt Fs need to go, they seriously harm the fabric of Ukrainian internal stability.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 19, 2023, 11:26:07 am
Such relatively unimportant news brings a smile to my face. Despite all the political games in the world, we do have many good people on our side.
Post by: King Zultan on December 20, 2023, 04:00:35 am
Post by: Cathar on December 20, 2023, 07:08:45 am
I haven't seen any maps posted recently and was wondering what's going on with the front line.Ongoing meatgrinder in Avdiivka as Putin wants to capture the town before the totally-legit-electionTM that he is "considering" participating to. 1k vatniki are made into sunflower fertilizer per day as they try to storm the same railway over and over.
The amount of meat wasted during the battle of Avdiivka is the worst of the war so far, and this includes the battle of Hostomel airport and Vughledar armored assault.
In one hand, their officers stopped bitching about not having missiles since Prigozhin became Prigozhout, in the other hand, they still don't have missiles, so we're back at WWI level of attriction.
Post by: feelotraveller on December 20, 2023, 09:01:47 pm
I haven't seen any maps posted recently and was wondering what's going on with the front line.
This article https://www.newsweek.com/avdiivka-map-russian-advances-quarry-ukraine-holds-coke-plant-1854150 (https://www.newsweek.com/avdiivka-map-russian-advances-quarry-ukraine-holds-coke-plant-1854150) contains a recent map.
Post by: Eric Blank on December 20, 2023, 10:33:32 pm
Post by: Starver on December 21, 2023, 12:21:01 am
Post by: scriver on December 21, 2023, 01:30:27 am
Post by: anewaname on December 21, 2023, 01:46:44 am
Post by: Cathar on December 21, 2023, 01:54:14 am
You know what I immediately thought was "Theyre defending a coca cola plant?" but apparently its an industrial coke plant. Must be easy to fortify?
Industrial zones have proven extremely resistant defensive structures since the siege of Mariupol afaik. Not only that, the plant is surrounded by fields in the low ground, where the defenders have unobstructed view. You try to sneak armor or prison meat toward the plant, they get spotted by drones and become mortar magnet.
If Russia does take Avdiivka, the Russian propaganda will only talk about the importance of the town and the Ukrainians will only talk about how many Russians died there.
Avdiivka has a symbolic importance, but also have an operational importance as it is a big city, and the Ukrainian foothold in Donetsk. To be fair, it's more like "how hasn't Russia captured this city in eight years of war in Donestk".
Besides, territory can be traded back and forth, but dead people don't come back to life
Post by: King Zultan on December 21, 2023, 03:38:38 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 21, 2023, 08:16:51 am
What is the symbolic importance of Avdiivka?I think it's the same as Bakhmut. Self-justifying meme where it's symbolically important because Russian high command decided it was important and so now it's politically imperative to capture it otherwise they're embarassing themselves and Putin by ignoring the thing they said was important. So they spent all of these resources to take it and now they have to take it because they spent so much resources trying. It's also next to Donetsk and part of the Donbass oblast they're trying to say they own so it's pretty embarassing to say you own it but don't even control it
Industrial zones have proven extremely resistant defensive structures since the siege of Mariupol afaik. Not only that, the plant is surrounded by fields in the low ground, where the defenders have unobstructed view. You try to sneak armor or prison meat toward the plant, they get spotted by drones and become mortar magnet.Not to mention some of the older industrial buildings were built with wartime survivability in mind. Azovstal was constructed with bunkers and tunnels by the Soviets. In China it was pretty cool seeing how a lot of offices and commercial centres were built on top of Mao-era networks of tunnels with naval style blast doors capable of resisting nuclear attack. Like you'd be walking around a modern mega mall and if you went down the stairs it was like you were walking in the 1950s. Some countries like Singapore still like making their buildings resilient to attack, but even then, any large concrete building is a useful place to place snipers/mortars/artillery and proves similarly resistant to artillery
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Pictured: Lebanese hotel which had endured rocket and artillery attacks during the Lebanese civil war
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
And this is after one of the barrages on Avdiivka coke and chemical plant. Despite extensive damage to machinery, the structure itself is a tough nut to crack. Anything less than a high exposive high yield bomb or missile is going to do very little. This is also before defensive efforts are considered; factories, quarries, even rubbish dumps have been fortified in the course of this war
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 21, 2023, 09:29:30 am
We can laugh at the Russians for grinding their troops into paste, but it works. They're grinding down the defenders too, and it's the latter who have bigger manpower, equipment, ammunition, and cashflow problems.
I share Strongpoint's trepidation expressed earlier in the thread. Without a major policy shift in the West, the outlook looks grim.
Post by: Cathar on December 21, 2023, 11:48:24 am
We can laugh at the Russians for grinding their troops into paste, but it works. They're grinding down the defenders too, and it's the latter who have bigger manpower, equipment, ammunition, and cashflow problems.
Oh, it's no laughing matter, depopulating moscow is the most serious international affair of the decade.
As for working... Working for what, that's the question. The grind takes one ukrainian per three vatniki, if the war was won or lost on attrition numbers alone (it is not), the AFU will grind down the Z "special operation", not the other way around.
Until the "elections", while Ukraine is mobilized, Russia refuses to push the draft button.
Avdiivka is not "next to Donetsk". It is straight up in Donetsk. It is located in the territory "annexed" by Putin, which makes the annexion straight up clownesque. Nothing says "we've annexed that territory" than launching meat waves on your own coke plant.
the outlook looks grim.the war is grim but the outcome is pretty much decided at this point. The variable is, how much moscow will depopulate before they give up that absurd chase.
Edit : As for the importance of symbols, I take the opportunity to remind people that if
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 21, 2023, 12:00:01 pm
As for the rest, I don't share your optimism. I'd rather say its unwarranted at this point.
Post by: Cathar on December 21, 2023, 12:26:45 pm
Remember that the "status quo" is the child snatchers take Kiyv in three days - then the west funds a slow, grinding underground militance, until someone who can count makes a cost analysis and go back home Afghanistan style. That is the war we were expecting to weight on. Ukraine is blowing expectations out of the water.
Yeah Ukraine did not deliver the knock out punch that we were expecting. Instead it "only" forced the second army in the world to cower in fear and to install thousand of kilometers of mines to protect itself from the big bad AFU for six months, and had its control of the black sea nullify by a country without a navy.
War is grim, but doomposting when vatniki trade three hundred bodies for each couple of meters of mud - is nonsensical. But surely we should pay for the grind to go faster yes
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 21, 2023, 12:38:06 pm
Post by: Cathar on December 21, 2023, 12:43:31 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 21, 2023, 02:01:21 pm
Avdiivka is right next to Donetsk. Over what is now nearly a decade of fighting it's been fortified like few other places. It pins the front line and checks the enemy logistics in the neighbouring population centre. It's an important military target whose loss will be likely permanent, and a major setback for the defenders.
We can laugh at the Russians for grinding their troops into paste, but it works. They're grinding down the defenders too, and it's the latter who have bigger manpower, equipment, ammunition, and cashflow problems.
I share Strongpoint's trepidation expressed earlier in the thread. Without a major policy shift in the West, the outlook looks grim.
I agree with 99% of your post, however I would just like to question one thing - "We can laugh at the Russians for grinding their troops into paste, but it works. They're grinding down the defenders too, and it's the latter who have bigger manpower, equipment, ammunition and cashflow problems." Russia may have superior manpower, but it's not willing to piss off the metropoles by mobilising it. Russia retains its superiority in artillery yet its practice of sacrificing its best trained units until they are no longer cohesive enough to be commanded or coherent as a unit makes large scale offensives impossible. This is a problem as Russia's only win state requires them to go on the offensive, for the West to suddenly cut support for Ukraine, and for Ukrainian morale to collapse. Meanwhile Ukraine just has degrade the Russian military's will or ability to wage war. Adopting a strategy which then maximises Russian casualties in exchange for territory of symbolic but not strategic value is fighting the war in a way that suits Ukrainian strategic objectives.
Politically it sucks that Ukraine has failed to take territory since our politicians are foolishly counting victory in the number of Khersons and Kharkivs liberated rather than the number of Russian counter-battery radars destroyed, so they gift Ukraine tanks and pressure them to launch NATO style armoured assaults without giving Ukraine NATO airplanes to provide NATO style air cover which normally underpins NATO doctrine... Also of note is that Russia may have superiority in quantity of artillery and ammunition, but Ukraine's shooting spree of Russian ammo dumps with American guided artillery or British cruise missiles shows again that if the ammo doesn't make it to the frontline, it may as well not exist. Hopefully Boeing can stop being a bitch about price reviews (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/28/us-eyes-long-range-rockets-for-ukraine-as-arms-supplies-dwindle) so Ukraine can start receiving air dropped bombs - which are compatible with HIMARS rockets or deployable by aircraft, and relatively cheap. There is also the substantial South Korean artillery shell stockpile, which although SK denies supplying shells to Ukraine, is suspected as being sent to Ukraine via USA by proxy. (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/south-korean-ammunition-headed-ukraine-via-us-wsj-2023-05-25/)
I think this abridged, translated blog from a pro-Russian writing in 2022 is very illustrative of why it's a bad idea for Russia and a gift to Ukraine for Russia to attack where Ukraine is strong and defend where Ukraine is weak:
Quote from: https://wartranslated.com/russian-volunteer-murz-on-why-russia-is-not-ready-to-defend-ukrainian-winter-offensive/
After leaving Kherson, the public, instead of soberly assessing the situation, began, with the active help of the media, military correspondents, and all other available means, to suck out the “positivity” from any bullshit, often demonstrating just the opposite – complete fuck ups. A typical example of this, again, was in my TG – a video with grandiose music from the 127th division, in which Ukrainian grenade launchers are allowed to approach tanks at 50 meters. At the 10th month of the war. Unteachable. Moreover, no one is embarrassed by the fact that in the frame it is clear that the tank missed with a return shot – the shell passed over the trench and exploded off-screen. Loud and prolonged applause. Pew Pew! We attack!
Separate fierce fuck-up are the constantly popping up videos from the 1st Army Corps of the DPR showing firing from tanks from closed positions, practiced on a regular basis. The horror here, of course, is not that tanks shoot from closed positions, they can do it, a good tankman should be able to do it, moreover, tankmen were trained for this in 2016-2017 and the KCPN carried manuals for this on the topic. The horror is that with the silent catastrophic lack of shells in artillery (you can’t talk about it, because then someone will have to answer for it, but no one wants to), it was decided to replace artillery with tanks on a regular basis.
In reality, such shooting is an emergency temporary measure in a situation where it is necessary to cover a large concentration of the enemy, and there is no free artillery at hand or it is impossible to use it because of the operational counter-battery fire, to which the tank, due to thick armor, is much less susceptible than self-propelled artillery guns and, especially, the towed guns in which the crew and ammunition load are not covered at all.
The task of the tank is to destroy enemy tanks with direct fire in a tank battle with such “crowbars”. If – you lose the barrel, you won’t hit anything, the enemy will destroy you first. And the survivability of the barrel of a tank gun, it is much less than that of a rifled howitzer. And the tanks that are doing all this are no longer new, the barrels have already been used, so to destroy targets from closed positions, a large consumption of shells is required, which wears out the barrels even more. In the LPR, still very much before the SMO, there was already a situation at one time when in one of the division’s tank barrels were shot to the point where further training firing at the range would deprive the tanks of combat value in the future, so the unit at the range began to shoot from 14.5 -mm inserts with cartridges from the KPVT machine gun.
But in combat, you can’t shoot like that. And the guns on the old T-64/72/80 tanks, the old models of the 2A46 gun, they can’t be changed without dismantling the turret. That is, we are now methodically putting out of action the last surviving tanks of the People’s Militia Corps, trophied tanks captured in a tolerable condition, and those removed from storage, are all urgently taken to the front.
It is understandable when the obsolete 100-mm Rapira smoothbore guns were assigned to support the infantry. They are not very relevant against modern tanks, so can be used to “finish off” the resource of barrels with high-explosive fragmentation shells before decommissioning. But to ruin our tanks … For what?
In the end, a “counter-battery fire” against such missile terror by searching for and destroying systems with our current resources will give almost nothing. And that’s exactly what the enemy is counting on. He is counting on the fact that politicians, having seen enough of burning city blocks, will put pressure on the military – “Drive the ukrops away from the city!” And the 1st Armed Corps will continue to kill the remnants of their infantry at the Ukrainian fortified areas around Donetsk.
In other sectors of the front, the Russian command does not need such a goading, as it voluntarily drives to slaughter the last remnants of the infantry, no longer very combat-ready due to previous losses. The Russian military has an incredible talent for turning any village with a couple of landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their own, not enemy, units are ground. Why? Yes, because “BUSV”, the Combat Charter of the Ground Forces, these people do not open and read almost ever. And more than any “Javelins” and “HIMARS”, more than any “NATO satellite groups” fighting against us is the Combat Charter of our own Ground Forces, on which our valiant command wanted to shit. And ukrops [Ukrainians] – they read it and creatively processed it, taking into account the available new technologies.
In the text about radio communications, I described the main problem of command and control in the Russian army, due to which the army cannot really advance, cannot maneuver, and cannot even fully repel enemy attacks. Nothing larger than the “remnants of a motorized rifle battalion” in the RF Armed Forces can be controlled as a single organism. And, of course, in this situation, the battalion commanders and company commanders of these “remnants” become well-deserved heroes, who, if possible, drag all the shit on their own backs. Although more often, alas, they don’t. And they are buried with their subordinates when, after half a dozen assaults, each organized worse than the previous one, we still capture another piece of land and collect their rotten remains.
From the fact that the Russian army can do nothing except for, bleeding, capture another village while surrendering a district center or an entire region on the other flank, the Russian army made an amazing conclusion – let’s take more villages! And arranged the maximum possible Verduns along the entire front line, including the very infamous Pavlovka in the DPR. And, of course, Bakhmut. How could it be without it? Why not kill the last remnants of combat-ready infantry at it? It’s not possible at all. These fucking bastards need to get positive motives for the news somewhere! Here, we freed another 100 meters of such and such village. And whoever is the first to report on the complete liberation of the village gets an order.
I think that the Ukrainian command later, already in captivity, will give these people the appropriate awards. Because on the eve of the winter offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it is almost impossible to provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine with some more significant service than killing the remnants of our infantry and the remnants of our tanks.
Recommend giving the whole thing a read. It's a pretty good description from a Russian POV of how they utterly fucked everything up in a way that gave Ukraine the chance to seize the initiative. "Maximising their mini-Verduns by turning every village into Verdun" is hell for them
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 21, 2023, 04:16:51 pm
I was concerned early on about it turning out like that, and I'm guessing I'm not the only one...
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 21, 2023, 04:45:11 pm
I do get the feeling that this is turning out to be like the Winter War... embarrasing Russian defeats early on, but Russians eventually rallying by raw force of numbers.If the Iran-Iraq War or WWI is anything to go by, defence in depth and artillery has rendered human wave assaults a futile waste of life
I was concerned early on about it turning out like that, and I'm guessing I'm not the only one...
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 21, 2023, 09:13:46 pm
A year ago they were still scrambling to damage control after they found themselves fighting a different war than the one they were prepared for. Now they've settled for what looks like a sustainable routine that they can keep eroding the defenders' with for years to come.
So what if they claw their way in a dog park or a coke plant at a time - they're still advancing and they're currently at little risk of ever losing what they gain. Barring sudden implosion for reasons as of today not apparent, or the West stopping patting themselves on their backs for how much they've already done, and getting their shit together.
If by 2025 or even 2030 there's russian army at the whole length of the Dnipro line that may or may not be enough of a victory for them, but it certainly won't be much of one for the Ukrainians.
Post by: KittyTac on December 21, 2023, 10:14:37 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on December 22, 2023, 12:56:39 am
In reality, most Republicans still remember when Russia was "the bad guy" and the Republican party was the party of the military complex.
It's just a radical fringe that realize they can stall foreign policy by shutting everything down.
But, there are small minor signs that we might just possibly get our shit together.
Post by: King Zultan on December 22, 2023, 02:34:31 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 22, 2023, 06:37:40 am
LW, I remember those posts of Murz's, from back when he was blogging them - which was a year ago. The point here is that the russians of today are not the russians from back then (fuck it, I'm not capitalising that).The main point is not that we can all fall asleep because Russia's military is dead. The main point is that they've had years to adapt and learn from their failures, and yet they are still doing the exact same thing as when they started the war: using their superior numbers to attack wherever Ukraine is strongest, in order to capture another fortified rubbish dump or coke plant. Whereas Ukrainian military objectives target Russian ability to wage war, Russian military objectives target lines on a map that do not affect Ukraine's ability to fight. Ukraine will blow up bridges on the Syvash or artillery depots, strike barracks full of troops, railway lines or supply depots, target Russian artillery whilst the Russians continue to give medals to their officers whenever they make a new mini-Verdun.
A year ago they were still scrambling to damage control after they found themselves fighting a different war than the one they were prepared for. Now they've settled for what looks like a sustainable routine that they can keep eroding the defenders' with for years to come.
So what if they claw their way in a dog park or a coke plant at a time - they're still advancing and they're currently at little risk of ever losing what they gain. Barring sudden implosion for reasons as of today not apparent, or the West stopping patting themselves on their backs for how much they've already done, and getting their shit together.
If by 2025 or even 2030 there's russian army at the whole length of the Dnipro line that may or may not be enough of a victory for them, but it certainly won't be much of one for the Ukrainians.
Imagine the kind of havoc Russia could cause if instead of throwing away their men to achieve nothing, they had multiple brigades of organised and trained veterans ready to conduct offensives that threatened to bypass and encircle these fortified villages. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/12/three-thousand-russians-were-killed-or-wounded-for-every-square-mile-they-captured-around-avdiivka/) Of all outcomes, the one where Russia just decides to go home is the best. Failing that, the next best outcome is the Russian military choosing to prioritise targets where the Ukrainians are well-prepared and can afford to lose. Especially since if the plan is to win a war of attrition against the American military industrial complex, Putin deserves to have a fat McClown following him everywhere shouting "you dumb motherfucker" day and night. It's the futility of it all which makes it so grim. It's like Vuhledar and Pavlivka seeing the near total destruction of their marines. Fast forward a year and the Russians are doing it again. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/11/03/a-year-ago-russian-troops-got-massacred-assaulting-vuhledar-now-theyre-getting-massacred-trying-again/)
It does not make sense to assault a well-prepared, well-defended enemy, for the express purpose of capturing an objective which does not change anything. If tomorrow, Avdiivka fell. Another Russian general would get a medal and send the survivors to go turn Lastochkyne into another mini-Verdun. If the Ukrainians broke through Pavlivka and captured Mariupol, it could end the war. Why doesn't Russia even try to win the war? Same reasons why they're arming rosgvardia with heavy weapons.
Quote from: https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/11/race-make-artillery-shells-us-eu-see-different-results/392288/
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Army produced around 14,000 155mm rounds a month in government-owned, contractor-operated munitions plants. In December 2022, Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the Army was looking to increase production to 20,000 rounds per month by the spring and 40,000 rounds per month by 2025.The greatest risk for Ukraine remains political, because otherwise time is on their side. As much as Russia improves and recovers from its initial blunders, the relative gap in strength between it and Ukraine decreases.
Last March, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo upped the target slightly, announcing plans to produce 24,000 rounds a month by year’s end.
The Army hit the target early, then exceeded it, producing 28,000 shells in October. At least some of those shells went right out the door to Ukraine, Army acquisition secretary Doug Bush told reporters in a media roundtable in November. He declined to say just how many.
Bush said the service now aims to boost its monthly production to 36,000 by March, 60,000 by September, 70,000 to 80,000 in early 2025, and 100,000 by the end of calendar 2025 — two and half times more than Wormuth’s year-old goal.
As part of this push, the Army has added shifts, bought robots, and expanded its ammunition plants, Bush said.
The Army’s investment has also been inexpensive relative to other Army programs, where $3 million can be considered a cheap price for certain advanced weapons, like hypersonic missiles.
The Army funded its original planned increase from 14,000 to 24,000 shells with $1.45 billion. In November, it announced a further $1.5 billion.
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 23, 2023, 07:21:13 am
But I think trying to convince you otherwise would be playing too much into the hands of russian propaganda, amplifying their message du jour. And hell, who's to say I'm not suffering from its distortions myself. So I shan't. I'd just urge everyone not to grow complacent with how things are.
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 24, 2023, 06:26:13 am
^ I think that's too rose-tinted a view of the situation. Like, most of those things you say the russian's don't target, they definitely do. Many of the faults of the russian military you describe can be also applied to the defenders. And there's definitely room to argue about how the gap changes.Well I don't think you're wrong (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/ukraine-ammunition-depot-reportedly-hit-in-wave-of-russian-missile-attacks), I also maintain that Russia wasting its most modern equipment and swathes of manpower attacking exactly where Ukraine expects them to (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/10/23/the-russians-sent-three-brigades-toward-avdiivka-just-two-came-back/) is the best of all worse outcomes
But I think trying to convince you otherwise would be playing too much into the hands of russian propaganda, amplifying their message du jour. And hell, who's to say I'm not suffering from its distortions myself. So I shan't. I'd just urge everyone not to grow complacent with how things are.
Quote from: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/12/15/complete-annihilation-five-russian-battalions-went-up-in-smoke-and-flames-trying-to-surround-avdiivka/
Most of the losses occurred in the first month of the Avdiivka battle starting in early October. After a few weeks, desperate Russian commanders switched up their tactics, and sent in the infantry on foot.I really can't say I disagree with you at all, especially in regards to complacency. The EU has been lagging behind non-stop and the USA is getting distracted with election season coming up. But I don't think this is a rosy-tinted view on Russian military strength (which is still considerable, and its artillery production is still immensely superior in quantity). It's more the belief that the biggest threat to Ukraine is EU/USA losing interest, or continuing to adopt a policy of "supply the bare minimum needed for Ukraine to survive, not win." Either of which could allow Russia to actually force Ukraine on the defensive.
The vehicle toll “surpasses Russian losses in any other single battle,” Frontelligence reported, “making it the most devastating battle for Russian forces in terms of vehicle losses.”
Losing at least 211 vehicles and 13,000 soldiers killed and wounded amounts to the “complete annihilation of five battalions,” according to Frontelligence. “This represents significant losses in both equipment and personnel, considering the achieved results.”
The roughly dozen regiments and brigades the Kremlin has staged around Avdiivka have advanced a mile or so north and south of the city but haven’t made inroads into the city itself—or cut off its main supply lines.
Quote from: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/12/5/ukraines-war-effort-could-sputter-out-as-us-eu-delay-funds
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, expressed three wishes last month: he sought $61.4bn in funding from Washington for Ukraine’s war effort next year, $20.5bn from the European Union, and an EU invitation to start membership talks.
Zelenskyy asked for his wishes to come true before Christmas, but it now seems possible he will not get any of them.
On Monday, the director of the Office of Management and Budget at the White House wrote to Congress, saying 97 percent of approved funding for Ukraine had been spent.
“I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from US military stocks,” Shalanda D Young wrote in her letter.
“There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money – and nearly out of time.”
Cutting funding would “kneecap” Ukraine, putting its forces on the defensive and possibly on the retreat, Young wrote.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 24, 2023, 12:44:29 pm
Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
Post by: EuchreJack on December 24, 2023, 10:27:42 pm
Not really?Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
They're more borrowing/bartering than buying. It's not sustainable.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165)
Post by: Strongpoint on December 25, 2023, 03:42:11 am
Not really?Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
They're more borrowing/bartering than buying. It's not sustainable.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165)
Yeah, hard times are ahead for Russian education, healthcare, etc. But they'll have money for war.
It is like an old Russian joke:
"Daddy! Prices for vodka went up! Does it mean you'll drink less?"
"No, son. It means you'll eat less"
Post by: King Zultan on December 27, 2023, 05:38:31 am
Russian priorities right there.Not really?Wonder when we're gonna get to the point where there's one rifle to three Russians, but they continue to fight despite this.
Never. Russian defense industry is growing and ramping up its production. They also have money to import stuff.
They're more borrowing/bartering than buying. It's not sustainable.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/11/21/why-the-russian-economys-luck-is-running-out-a83165)
Yeah, hard times are ahead for Russian education, healthcare, etc. But they'll have money for war.
It is like an old Russian joke:
"Daddy! Prices for vodka went up! Does it mean you'll drink less?"
"No, son. It means you'll eat less"
Post by: Strongpoint on December 29, 2023, 03:28:03 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 29, 2023, 05:46:48 pm
Russia launched 110 missiles at us this night\morning. I guess they are really mad after we destroyed their warship a few days ago.At least 31 dead, 160+ injured (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-massive-air-attack-ukraine-least-10-dead-kyiv-2023-12-29/) with a missile also entering Poland's airspace. I wonder what "threshold" Russia would have to cross before NATO chiefs decided WWIII was an acceptable risk
Post by: Ganondworf on December 29, 2023, 06:25:25 pm
These days I feel even more helpless and outraged at the lack of adequate support for Ukraine. It feels like NATO administrations try to get away with the bare minimum of support that just prevents Ukraine from losing. But raising that support to enable Ukraine to push the russians back out, let alone winning that damn war, seems to be not very high on their agendas. Maybe not even desired?
Why are we letting russia get away with an invasion like that?
Post by: Maximum Spin on December 29, 2023, 10:14:01 pm
Why are we letting russia get away with an invasion like that?Because they still own the marginal barrel of oil which Europe still indirectly buys and burns.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 30, 2023, 02:33:57 am
Why are we letting russia get away with an invasion like that?
Because some Western politicians (in a broader sense, including business, political movements, the public - everyone who influences what countries do) directly profit from business with Russia and\or the ongoing war.
Some - afraid of escalation and ready to sacrifice Ukraine in hope to avoid a war at home
Some - afraid of Russia losing and breaking up into several extremist countries... with ICBM nukes
Some - Cynically understand how cost-efficient an ongoing war in Ukraine is in damaging Russian military potential while most of the cost is paid by Ukrainian lives.
Some - Actually like Russia and Putin and want their countries to be like that
Some - Happy to see Ukrainian industry and agriculture being damaged\destroyed because it eliminates a competitor.
Some - drool at young white European refugees as a source of a cheap workforce with far fewer problems in cultural adaptation
And so on.
World is a cynical and cold place. Overall political will of the West, a sum of smaller political desires, is not even close to "Russia must be defeated ASAP"
_____________
Saying all that, don't think that I am not grateful for the genuine help we do get. I'd love to see more, much more. I'd also love to see way harsher sanctions against Russia. But it is not how the world works
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 31, 2023, 07:36:51 am
Because some Western politicians (in a broader sense, including business, political movements, the public - everyone who influences what countries do) directly profit from business with Russia and\or the ongoing war.Also more directly, lots of Western politicians were/are funded by Russian oligarchs, or lobbied by accountants/lawyers/bankers who are friends thereof
Post by: scriver on December 31, 2023, 08:48:20 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 31, 2023, 12:24:59 pm
I'm not, and I'm going to spend these millions of dollars I found in a suit case in a subway storage locker completely by accident to convince you of itOur health secretary once said he had no knowledge of the millions of pounds worth of shares he had been gifted by a friend who owned a company he diverted billions of public funds into via PPE contracts
Post by: Starver on December 31, 2023, 12:47:47 pm
Our health secretary once said he had no knowledge of the millions of pounds worth of shares he had been gifted by a friend who owned a company he diverted billions of public funds into via PPE contractsGiven general levels of incompetence and obliviousness... it's easy enough to believe from pretty much any one of them.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 31, 2023, 01:38:02 pm
Spoiler: frontline change in 2023 (click to show/hide)
It was a long, long year
Post by: anewaname on January 01, 2024, 12:27:44 pm
Post by: King Zultan on January 02, 2024, 03:44:54 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 02, 2024, 05:02:28 am
What's the dark grey area in the middle represent?
Merely regions parts of which are occupied
Also, if you are curious - I am south of Poltava, so not that far from the frontline.
Post by: Starver on January 02, 2024, 07:15:01 am
As far as georepresentation goes, it seemed as simple (to identify, if not explain!) as that, unless I missed an exception. The choice of ebb-and-fro colours I admit I wasn't too clear on. Blue and yellow are both established Ukrainean colours, so either I'm wrong about it (maybe it's just phases of Ukrainean advancement? ...or something else, like intensity of claim by .ue?) or that was a strange choice by the compositor...
Still, I took away the general detail (long thin, mostly static front, but of course on the scale of a country where those coloured patches are not insignificant) at first glance, and I had meant to make a few more glances before deciding I understood it completely.
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 02, 2024, 08:32:19 am
Post by: Starver on January 02, 2024, 09:57:54 am
Going beyond the flood-fill is flag-inspired pattern-fill. Which probably can't be run 'straight' (even without other potential complications (https://xkcd.com/2528/), but left-slant blue/yellow striping vs right-slant red/blue/white (or similar cycling) might work, with just a bit of care where isolated blues fall within the overlay of the opposing side.
A few overlaid labels/pointers to 'explain' particular bulges (could give date(-range) of a particular grab, for other useful data, or even point out a to-and-fro zone that actually expanded both ways/further-then-back, for which the final colouration gives no true justice (and could highlight your "as of today" clarification) could also resolve it, without much fuss.
Or an actual key, which would have made the initial view much less intruiging (as I quickly ran through a cartophilic/cartomanial internal monologue of what I would have done, of which the above is a much abridged summary) but left much of the ambiguity out.
This not being an issue with anyone here. Just surprised that the data-wranglers let such a potentially confusing thing go out without some hint. (Probably orphaned from the general internal convention/key/explanation that they presumed all consumers would automatically have at hand/be familiar with by now.) I like my maps, and I can probably absorb more implicit truths from them than most, but you do often need some explicit guide to visuals.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 02, 2024, 09:52:13 pm
Post by: Starver on January 02, 2024, 10:20:09 pm
(They take Doublethink to degree level in Russia, clearly!)
Post by: King Zultan on January 03, 2024, 04:32:37 am
Post by: hector13 on January 03, 2024, 04:33:25 am
Post by: feelotraveller on January 04, 2024, 02:49:55 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 04, 2024, 05:14:33 am
Post by: Duuvian on January 04, 2024, 05:56:09 am
The Discourses
By Epictetus
Book Four
Chapter 1
About freedom
He is free who lives as he wishes to live; who is neither subject to compulsion nor to hindrance, nor to force; whose movements to action are not impeded, whose desires attain their purpose, and who does not fall into that which he would avoid. Who, then, chooses to live in error? No man. Who chooses to live deceived, liable to mistake, unjust, unrestrained, discontented, mean? No man. Not one then of the bad lives as he wishes; nor is he, then, free. And who chooses to live in sorrow, fear, envy, pity, desiring and failing in his desires, attempting to avoid something and falling into it? Not one. Do we then find any of the bad free from sorrow, free from fear, who does not fall into that which he would avoid, and does not obtain that which he wishes? Not one; nor then do we find any bad man free.
If, then, a man who has been twice consul should hear this, if you add, "But you are a wise man; this is nothing to you": he will pardon you. But if you tell him the truth, and say, "You differ not at all from those who have been thrice sold as to being yourself not a slave," what else ought you to expect than blows? For he says, "What, I a slave, I whose father was free, whose mother was free, I whom no man can purchase: I am also of senatorial rank, and a friend of Caesar, and I have been a consul, and I own many slaves." In the first place, most excellent senatorial man, perhaps your father also was a slave in the same kind of servitude, and your mother, and your grandfather and all your ancestors in an ascending series. But even if they were as free as it is possible, what is this to you? What if they were of a noble nature, and you of a mean nature; if they were fearless, and you a coward; if they had the power of self-restraint, and you are not able to exercise it.
"And what," you may say, "has this to do with being a slave?" Does it seem to you to be nothing to do a thing unwillingly, with compulsion, with groans, has this nothing to do with being a slave? "It is something," you say: "but who is able to compel me, except the lord of all, Caesar?" Then even you yourself have admitted that you have one master. But that he is the common master of all, as you say, let not this console you at all: but know that you are a slave in a great family. So also the people of Nicopolis are used to exclaim, "By the fortune of Caesar, are free."
However, if you please, let us not speak of Caesar at present. But tell me this: did you never love any person, a young girl, or slave, or free? What then is this with respect to being a slave or free? Were you never commanded by the person beloved to do something which you did not wish to do? have you never flattered your little slave? have you never kissed her feet? And yet if any man compelled you to kiss Caesar's feet, you would think it an insult and excessive tyranny. What else, then, is slavery? Did you never go out by night to some place whither you did not wish to go, did you not expend what you did not wish to expend, did you not utter words with sighs and groans, did you not submit to abuse and to be excluded? But if you are ashamed to confess your own acts, see what Thrasonides says and does, who having seen so much military service as perhaps not even you have, first of all went out by night, when Geta does not venture out, but if he were compelled by his master, would have cried out much and would have gone out lamenting his bitter slavery. Next, what does Thrasonides say? "A worthless girl has enslaved me, me whom no enemy, ever did." Unhappy man, who are the slave even of a girl, and a worthless girl. Why then do you still call yourself free? and why do you talk of your service in the army? Then he calls for a sword and is angry with him who out of kindness refuses it; and he sends presents to her who hates him, and entreats and weeps, and on the other hand, having had a little success, he is elated. But even then how? was he free enough neither to desire nor to fear?
Now consider in the case of animals, how we employ the notion of liberty. Men keep tame lions shut up, and feed them, and some take them about; and who will say that this lion is free? Is it not the fact that the more he lives at his ease, so much the more he is in a slavish condition? and who if he had perception and reason would wish to be one of these lions? Well, these birds when they are caught and are kept shut up, how much do they suffer in their attempts to escape? and some of them die of hunger rather than submit to such a kind of life. And as many of them as live, hardly live and with suffering pine away; and if they ever find any opening, they make their escape. So much do they desire their natural liberty, and to be independent and free from hindrance. And what harm is there to you in this? "What do you say? I am formed by nature to fly where I choose, to live in the open air, to sing when I choose: you deprive me of all this, and say, 'What harm is it to you?' For this reason we shall say that those animals only are free which cannot endure capture, but, as soon as they are caught, escape from captivity by death. So Diogenes says that there is one way to freedom, and that is to die content: and he writes to the Persian king, "You cannot enslave the Athenian state any more than you can enslave fishes." "How is that? cannot I catch them?" "If you catch them," says Diogenes, "they will immediately leave you, as fishes do; for if you catch a fish, it dies; and if these men that are caught shall die, of what use to you is the preparation for war?" These are the words of a free man who had carefully examined the thing and, as was natural, had discovered it. But if you look for it in a different place from where it is, what wonder if you never find it?
The slave wishes to be set free immediately. Why? Do you think that he wishes to pay money to the collectors of twentieths? No; but because he imagines that hitherto through not having obtained this, he is hindered and unfortunate. "If I shall be set free, immediately it is all happiness, I care for no man, I speak to all as an equal and, like to them, I go where I choose, I come from any place I choose, and go where I choose." Then he is set free; and forthwith having no place where he can eat, he looks for some man to flatter, some one with whom he shall sup: then he either works with his body and endures the most dreadful things; and if he can obtain a manger, he falls into a slavery much worse than his former slavery; or even if he is become rich, being a man without any knowledge of what is good, he loves some little girl, and in his happiness laments and desires to be a slave again. He says, "what evil did I suffer in my state of slavery? Another clothed me, another supplied me with shoes, another fed me, another looked after me in sickness; and I did only a few services for him. But now a wretched man, what things I suffer, being a slave of many instead of to one. But however," he says, "if I shall acquire rings, then I shall live most prosperously and happily." First, in order to acquire these rings, he submits to that which he is worthy of; then, when he has acquired them, it is again all the same. Then he says, "if I shall be engaged in military service, I am free from all evils." He obtains military service. He suffers as much as a flogged slave, and nevertheless he asks for a second service and a third. After this, when he has put the finishing stroke to his career and is become a senator, then he becomes a slave by entering into the assembly, then he serves the finer and most splendid slavery- not to be a fool, but to learn what Socrates taught, what is the nature of each thing that exists, and that a man should not rashly adapt preconceptions to the several things which are. For this is the cause to men of all their evils, the not being able to adapt the general preconceptions to the several things. But we have different opinions. One man thinks that he is sick: not so however, but the fact is that he does not adapt his preconceptions right. Another thinks that he is poor; another that he has a severe father or mother; and another, again, that Caesar is not favourable to him. But all this is one and only one thing, the not knowing how to adapt the preconceptions. For who has not a preconception of that which is bad, that it is hurtful, that it ought to be avoided, that it ought in every way to be guarded against? One preconception is not repugnant to another, only where it comes to the matter of adaptation. What then is this evil, which is both hurtful, and a thing to be avoided? He answers, "Not to be Caesar's friend." He is gone far from the mark, he has missed the adaptation, he is embarrassed, he seeks the things which are not at all pertinent to the matter; for when he has succeeded in being Caesar's friend, nevertheless he has failed in finding what he sought. For what is that which every man seeks? To live secure, to be happy, to do everything as he wishes, not to be hindered, nor compelled. When then he is become the friend of Caesar, is he free from hindrance? free from compulsion, is he tranquil, is he happy? Of whom shall we inquire? What more trustworthy witness have we than this very man who is, become Caesar's friend? Come forward and tell us when did you sleep more quietly, now or before you became Caesar's friend? Immediately you hear the answer, "Stop, I entreat you, and do not mock me: you know not what miseries I suffer, and sleep does not come to me; but one comes and says, 'Caesar is already awake, he is now going forth': then come troubles and cares." Well, when did you sup with more pleasure, now or before? Hear what he says about this also. He says that if he is not invited, he is pained: and if he is invited, he sups like a slave with his master, all the while being anxious that he does not say or do anything foolish. And what do you suppose that he is afraid of; lest he should be lashed like a slave? How can he expect anything so good? No, but as befits so great a man, Caesar's friend, he is afraid that he may lose his head. And when did you bathe more free from trouble, and take your gymnastic exercise more quietly? In fine, which kind of life did you prefer? your present or your former life? I can swear that no man is so stupid or so ignorant of truth as not to bewail his own misfortunes the nearer he is in friendship to Caesar.
Since, then, neither those who are called kings live as they choose, nor the friends of kings, who finally are those who are free? Seek, and you will find; for you have aids from nature for the discovery of truth. But if you are not able yourself by going along these ways only to discover that which follows, listen to those who have made the inquiry. What do they say? Does freedom seem to you a good thing? "The greatest good." Is it possible, then, that he who obtains the greatest good can be unhappy or fare badly? "No." Whomsoever, then, you shall see unhappy, unfortunate, lamenting, confidently declare that they are not free. "I do declare it." We have now, then, got away from buying and selling and from such arrangements about matters of property; for if you have rightly assented to these matters, if the Great King is unhappy, he cannot be free, nor can a little king, nor a man of consular rank, nor one who has been twice consul. "Be it so."
Further, then, answer me this question also: Does freedom seem to you to be something great and noble and valuable? "How should it not seem so?" Is it possible, then, when a man obtains anything, so great and valuable and noble to be mean? "It is not possible." When, then, you see any man subject to another, or flattering him contrary to his own opinion, confidently affirm that this man also is not free; and not only if he do this for a bit of supper, but also if he does it for a government or a consulship: and call these men "little slaves" who for the sake of little matters do these things, and those who do so for the sake of great things call "great slaves," as they deserve to be. "This is admitted also." Do you think that freedom is a thing independent and self-governing? "Certainly." Whomsoever, then, it is in the power of another to hinder and compel, declare that he is not free. And do not look, I entreat you, after his grandfathers and great-grandfathers, or inquire about his being bought or sold; but if you hear him saying from his heart and with feeling, "Master," even if the twelve fasces precede him, call him a slave. And if you hear him say, "Wretch that I am, how much I suffer," call him a slave. If, finally, you see him lamenting, complaining, unhappy, call him a slave though he wears a praetexta. If, then, he is doing nothing of this kind, do not yet say that he is free, but learn his opinions, whether they are subject to compulsion, or may produce hindrance, or to bad fortune; and if you find him such, call him a slave who has a holiday in the Saturnalia: say that his master is from home: he will return soon, and you will know what he suffers. "Who will return?" Whoever has in himself the power over anything which is desired by the man, either to give it to him or to take it away? "Thus, then, have we many masters?" We have: for we have circumstances as masters prior to our present masters; and these circumstances are many. Therefore it must of necessity be that those who have the power over any of these circumstances must be our masters. For no man fears Caesar himself, but he fears death, banishment, deprivation of his property, prison, and disgrace. Nor does any man love Caesar, unless Caesar is a person of great merit, but he loves wealth, the office of tribune, praetor or consul. When we love, and hate, and fear these things, it must be that those who have the power over them must be our masters. Therefore we adore them even as gods; for we think that what possesses the power of conferring the greatest advantage on us is divine. Then we wrongly assume that a certain person has the power of conferring the greatest advantages; therefore he is something divine. For if we wrongly assume that a certain person has the power of conferring the greatest advantages, it is a necessary consequence that the conclusion from these premises must be false.
What, then, is that which makes a man free from hindrance and makes him his own master? For wealth does not do it, nor consulship, nor provincial government, nor royal power; but something else must be discovered. What then is that which, when we write, makes us free from hindrance and unimpeded? "The knowledge of the art of writing." What, then, is it in playing the lute? "The science of playing the lute." Therefore in life also it is the science of life. You have, then, heard in a general way: but examine the thing also in the several parts. Is it possible that he who desires any of the things which depend on others can be free from hindrance? "No." Is it possible for him to be unimpeded? "No." Therefore he cannot be free. Consider then: whether we have nothing which is in our own power only, or whether we have all things, or whether some things are in our own power, and others in the power of others. "What do you mean?" When you wish the body to be entire, is it in your power or not? "It is not in my power." When you wish it to be healthy? "Neither is this in my power." When you wish it to be handsome? "Nor is this." Life or death? "Neither is this in my power." Your body, then, is another's, subject to every man who is stronger than yourself? "It is." But your estate, is it in your power to have it when you please, and as long as you please, and such as you please? "No." And your slaves? "No." And your clothes? "No." And your house? "No." And your horses? "Not one of these things." And if you wish by all means your children to live, or your wife, or your brother, or your friends, is it in your power? "This also is not in my power."
Whether, then, have you nothing which is in your own power, which depends on yourself only and cannot be taken from you, or have you anything of the kind? "I know not." Look at the thing, then, thus, examine it. Is any man able to make you assent to that which is false? "No man." In the matter of assent, then, you are free from hindrance and obstruction. "Granted." Well; and can a man force you to desire to move toward that to which you do not choose? "He can, for when he threatens me with death or bonds, he compels me to desire to move toward it." If, then, you despise death and bonds, do you still pay any regard to him? "No." Is, then, the despising of death an act of your own, or is it not yours? "It is my act." It is your own act, then, also to desire to move toward a thing: or is it not so? "It is my own act." But to desire to move away from a thing, whose act is that? This also is your act. "What, then, if I have attempted to walk, suppose another should hinder me." What part of you does he hinder? does he hinder the faculty of assent? "No: but my poor body." Yes, as he would do with a stone. "Granted; but I no longer walk." And who told you that walking is your act free from hindrance? for I said that this only was free from hindrance, to desire to move: but where there is need of body and its co-operation, you have heard long ago that nothing is your own. "Granted also." And who can compel you to desire what you do not wish? "No man." And to propose, or intend, or in short to make use of the appearances which present themselves, can any man compel you? "He cannot do this: but he will hinder me when I desire from obtaining what I desire." If you desire anything which is your own, and one of the things which cannot be hindered, how will he hinder you? "He cannot in any way." Who, then, tells you that he who desires the things that belong to another is free from hindrance?
"Must I, then, not desire health?" By no means, nor anything else that belongs to another: for what is not in your power to acquire or to keep when you please, this belongs to another. Keep, then, far from it not only your hands but, more than that, even your desires. If you do not, you have surrendered yourself as a slave; you have subjected your neck, if you admire anything not your own, to everything that is dependent on the power of others and perishable, to which you have conceived a liking. "Is not my hand my own?" It is a part of your own body; but it is by nature earth, subject to hindrance, compulsion, and the slave of everything which is stronger. And why do I say your hand? You ought to possess your whole body as a poor ass loaded, as long as it is possible, as long as you are allowed. But if there be a press, and a soldier should lay hold of it, let it go, do not resist, nor murmur; if you do, you will receive blows, and nevertheless you will also lose the ass. But when you ought to feel thus with respect to the body, consider what remains to be done about all the rest, which is provided for the sake of the body. When the body is an ass, all the other things are bits belonging to the ass, pack-saddles, shoes, barley, fodder. Let these also go: get rid of them quicker and more readily than of the ass.
When you have made this preparation, and have practiced this discipline, to distinguish that which belongs to another from that which is your own, the things which are subject to hindrance from those which are not, to consider the things free from hindrance to concern yourself, and those which are not free not to concern yourself, to keep your desire steadily fixed to the things which do concern yourself, and turned from the things which do not concern yourself; do you still fear any man? "No one." For about what will you be afraid? about the things which are your own, in which consists the nature of good and evil? and who has power over these things? who can take them away? who can impede them? No man can, no more than he can impede God. But will you be afraid about your body and your possessions, about things which are not yours, about things which in no way concern you? and what else have you been studying from the beginning than to distinguish between your own and not your own, the things which are in your power and not in your power, the things subject to hindrance and not subject? and why have you come to the philosophers? was it that you may nevertheless be unfortunate and unhappy? You will then in this way, as I have supposed you to have done, be without fear and disturbance. And what is grief to you? for fear comes from what you expect, but grief from that which is present. But what further will you desire? For of the things which are within the power of the will, as being good and present, you have a proper and regulated desire: but of the things which are not in the power of the will you do not desire any one, and so you do not allow any place to that which is irrational, and impatient, and above measure hasty.
When, then, you are thus affected toward things, what man can any longer be formidable to you? For what has a man which is formidable to another, either when you see him or speak to him or, finally, are conversant with him? Not more than one horse has with respect to another, or one dog to another, or one bee to another bee. Things, indeed, are formidable to every man; and when any man is able to confer these things on another or to take them away, then he too becomes formidable. How then is an acropolis demolished? Not by the sword, not by fire, but by opinion. For if we abolish the acropolis which is in the city, can we abolish also that of fever, and that of beautiful women? Can we, in a word, abolish the acropolis which is in us and cast out the tyrants within us, whom we have dally over us, sometimes the same tyrants, at other times different tyrants? But with this we must begin, and with this we must demolish the acropolis and eject the tyrants, by giving up the body, the parts of it, the faculties of it, the possessions, the reputation, magisterial offices, honours, children, brothers, friends, by considering all these things as belonging to others. And if tyrants have been ejected from us, why do I still shut in the acropolis by a wall of circumvallation, at least on my account; for if it still stands, what does it do to me? why do I still eject guards? For where do I perceive them? against others they have their fasces, and their spears, and their swords. But I have never been hindered in my will, nor compelled when I did not will. And how is this possible? I have placed my movements toward action in obedience to God. Is it His will that I shall have fever? It is my will also. Is it His will that I should move toward anything? It is my will also. Is it His will that I should obtain anything? It is my wish also. Does He not will? I do not wish. Is it His will that I be put to the rack? It is my will then to die; it is my will then to be put to the rack. Who, then, is still able to hinder me contrary to my own judgement, or to compel me? No more than he can hinder or compel Zeus.
Post by: Duuvian on January 04, 2024, 05:56:44 am
Thus the more cautious of travelers also act. A traveler has heard that the road is infested by robbers; he does not venture to enter on it alone, but he waits for the companionship on the road either of an ambassador, or of a quaestor, or of a proconsul, and when he has attached himself to such persons he goes along the road safely. So in the world the wise man acts. There are many companies of robbers, tyrants, storms, difficulties, losses of that which is dearest. "Where is there any place of refuge? how shall he pass along without being attacked by robbers? what company shall he wait for that he may pass along in safety? to whom shall he attach himself? To what person generally? to the rich man, to the man of consular rank? and what is the use of that to me? Such a man is stripped himself, groans and laments. But what if the fellow-companion himself turns against me and becomes my robber, what shall I do? I will be 'a friend of Caesar': when I am Caesar's companion no man will wrong me. In the first place, that I may become illustrious, what things must I endure and suffer? how often and by how many must I he robbed? Then, if I become Caesar's friend, he also is mortal. And if Caesar from any circumstance becomes my enemy, where is it best for me to retire? Into a desert? Well, does fever not come there? What shall be done then? Is it not possible to find a safe fellow traveler, a faithful one, strong, secure against all surprises?" Thus he considers and perceives that if he attaches himself to God, he will make his journey in safety.
"How do you understand 'attaching yourself to God'?" In this sense, that whatever God wills, a man also shall will; and what God does not will, a man shall not will. How, then, shall this he done? In what other way than by examining the movements of God and his administration What has He given to me as my own and in my own power? what has He reserved to Himself? He has given to me the things which are in the power of the will: He has put them in my power free from impediment and hindrance. How was He able to make the earthly body free from hindrance? And accordingly He has subjected to the revolution of the whole, possessions, household things, house, children, wife. Why, then, do I fight against God? why do I will what does not depend on the will? why do I will to have absolutely what is not granted to ma? But how ought I to will to have things? In the way in which they are given and as long as they are given. But He who has given takes away. Why then do I resist? I do not say that I shall be fool if I use force to one who is stronger, but I shall first be unjust. For whence had I things when I came into the world? My father gave them to me. And who gave them to him? and who made the sun? and who made the fruits of the earth? and who the seasons? and who made the connection of men with one another and their fellowship?
Then after receiving everything from another and even yourself, are you angry and do you blame the Giver if he takes anything from you? Who are you, and for what purpose did you come into the world? Did not He introduce you here, did He not show you the light, did he not give you fellow-workers, and perception, and reason? and as whom did He introduce you here? did He not introduce you as a subject to death, and as one to live on the earth with a little flesh, and to observe His administration, and to join with Him in the spectacle and the festival for a short time? Will you not, then, as long as you have been permitted, after seeing the spectacle and the solemnity, when he leads you out, go with adoration of Him and thanks for what you have seen, and heard? "No; but I would, still enjoy the feast." The initiated, too, would wish to be longer in the initiation: and perhaps also those, at Olympia to see other athletes; but the solemnity is ended: go away like a grateful and modest man; make room for others: others also must be born, as you were, and being born they must have a place, and houses and necessary things. And if the first do not retire, what remains? Why ire you insatiable? Why are you not content? why do you contract the world? "Yes, but I would have my little children with me and my wife." What, are they yours? do they not belong to the Giver, and to Him who made you? then will you not give up what belongs to others? will you not give way to Him who is superior? "Why, then, did He introduce me into the world on these conditions," And if the conditions do not suit you depart. He has no need of a spectator who is not satisfied. He wants those who join in the festival, those who take part in the chorus, that they may rather applaud, admire, and celebrate with hymns the solemnity. But those who can bear no trouble, and the cowardly He will not willingly see absent from the great assembly; for they did not when they were present behave as they ought to do at a festival nor fill up their place properly, but they lamented, found fault with the deity, fortune, their companions; not seeing both what they had. and their own powers, which they received for contrary purposes, the powers of magnanimity, of a generous mind, manly spirit, and what we are now inquiring about, freedom. "For what purpose, then, have I received these things? To use them. "How long;" So long as He who his lent them chooses. "What if they are necessary to me?" Do not attach yourself to them and they will not be necessary: do not say to yourself that they are necessary, and then they are not necessary.
This study you ought to practice from morning to evening, beginning, with the smallest things and those most liable to damage, with an earthen pot, with a cup. Then proceed in this way to a tunic to a little dog, to a horse, to a small estate in land: then to yourself, to your body, to the parts of your body, to your brothers. Look all round and throw these things from you. Purge your opinions so that nothing cleave to you of the things which are not your own, that nothing grow to you, that nothing give you pain when it is torn from you; and say, while you are daily exercising yourself as you do there, not that you are philosophizing, for this is an arrogant expression, but that you are presenting an asserter of freedom: for this is really freedom. To this freedom Diogenes was called by Antisthenes, and he said that he could no longer be enslaved by any man. For this reason when he was taken prisoner, how did he behave to the pirates? Did he call any of them master? and I do not speak of the name, for I am not afraid of the word, but of the state of mind by which the word is produced. How did he reprove them for feeding badly their captives? How was he sold? Did he seek a master? no; but a slave, And, when he was sold, how did he behave to his master? Immediately he disputed with him and said to his master that he ought not to be dressed as he was, nor shaved in such a manner; and about the children he told them how he ought to bring them up. And what was strange in this? for if his master had bought an exercise master, would he have employed him in the exercises of the palaestra as a servant or as a master? and so if he had bought a physician or an architect. And so, in every matter, it is absolutely necessary that he who has skill must be the superior of him who has not. Whoever, then, generally possesses the science of life, what else must he be than master? For who is master of a ship? "The man who governs the helm." Why? Because he who will not obey him suffers for it. "But a master can give me stripes." Can he do it, then, without suffering for it?' "So I also used to think." But because he can not do it without suffering for it, for this reason it is not in his power: and no man can do what is unjust without suffering for it. "And what is the penalty for him who puts his own slave in chains, what do you think that is?" The fact of putting the slave in chains: and you also will admit this, if you choose to maintain the truth, that man is not a wild beast, but a tame animal. For when is a a vine doing badly? When it is in a condition contrary to its nature. When is a cock? Just the same. Therefore a man also is so. What then is a man's nature? To bite, to kick, and to throw into prison and to behead? No; but to do good, to co-operate with others, to wish them well. At that time, then, he is in a bad condition, whether you choose to admit it or not, when he is acting foolishly.
"Socrates, then, did not fare badly?" No; but his judges aid his accusers did. "Nor did Helvidius at Rome fare badly?" No; but his murderer did. "How do you mean?" The same as you do when you say that a cock has not fared badly when he has gained the victory and been severely wounded; but that the cock has fared badly when he has been defeated and is unhurt: nor do you call a dog fortunate who neither pursues game nor labors, but when you see him sweating, when you see him in pain and panting violently after running. What paradox do we utter if we say that the evil in everything's that which is contrary to the nature of the thing? Is that a paradox? for do you not say this in the case of all other things? Why then in the case of man only do you think differently, But because we say that the nature of man is tame and social and faithful, you will not say that this is a paradox? "It is not." What then is it a paradox to say that a man is not hurt when he is whipped, or put in chains, or beheaded? does he not, if he suffers nobly, come off even with increased advantage and profit? But is he not hurt, who suffers in a most pitiful and disgraceful way, who in place of a man becomes a wolf, or viper or wasp?
Well then let us recapitulate the things which have been agreed on. The man who is not under restraint is free, to whom things are exactly in that state in which he wishes them to be; but he who can be restrained or compelled or hindered, or thrown into any circumstances against his will, is a slave. But who is free from restraint? He who desires nothing that belongs to others. And what are the things which belong to others? Those which are not in our power either to have or not to have, or to have of a certain kind or in a certain manner. Therefore the body belongs to another, the parts of the body belong to another, possession belongs to another. If, then, you are attached to any of these things as your own, you will pay the penalty which it is proper for him to pay who desires what belongs to another. This road leads to freedom, that is the only way of escaping from slavery, to be able to say at last with all your soul
Lead me, O Zeus, and thou O destiny, The way that I am bid by you to go. But what do you say, philosopher? The tyrant summons you to say something which does not become you. Do you say it or do you not? Answer me. "Let me consider." Will you consider now? But when you were in the school, what was it which you used to consider? Did you not study what are the things that are good and what are bad, and what things are neither one nor the other? "I did." What then was our opinion? "That just and honourable acts were good; and that unjust and disgraceful acts were bad." Is life a good thing? "No." Is death a bad thing? "No." Is prison? "No." But what did we think about mean and faithless words and betrayal of a friend and flattery of a tyrant? "That they are bad." Well then, you are not considering, nor have you considered nor deliberated. For what is the matter for consideration: is it whether it is becoming for me, when I have it in my power, to secure for myself the greatest of good things, and not to secure for myself the greatest evils? A fine inquiry indeed, and necessary, and one that demands much deliberation. Man, why do you mock us? Such an inquiry is never made. If you really imagined that base things were bad and honourable things were good, and that all other things were neither good nor bad, you would not even have approached this inquiry, nor have come near it; but immediately you would have been able to distinguish them by the understanding as you would do by the vision. For when do you inquire if black things are white, if heavy things are light, and do not comprehend the manifest evidence of the senses? How, then, do you now say that you are considering whether things which are neither good nor bad ought to be avoided more than things which are bad? But you do not possess these opinions; and neither do these things seem to you to he neither good nor bad, but you think that they are the greatest evils; nor do you think those other things to be evils, but matters which do not concern us at all. For thus from the beginning you have accustomed yourself. "Where am I? In the schools: and are any listening to me? I am discoursing among philosophers. But I have gone out of the school. Away with this talk of scholars and fools." Thus a friend is overpowered by the testimony of a philosopher: thus a philosopher becomes a parasite; thus he lets himself for hire for money: thus in the senate a man does not say what he thinks; in private he proclaims his opinions. You are a cold and miserable little opinion, suspended from idle words as from a hair. But keep yourself strong and fit for the uses of life and initiated by being exercised in action. How do you hear? I do not say that your child is dead- for how could you bear that?- but that your oil is spilled, your wine drunk up. Do you act in such a way that one standing by you while you are making a great noise, may say this only, "Philosopher, you say something different in the school. Why do you deceive us? Why, when you are only a worm, do you say that you are a man?" I should like to be present when one of the philosophers is lying with a woman, that I might see how he is exerting himself, and what words he is uttering, and whether he remembers his title of philosopher, and the words which he hears or says or reads.
"And what is this to liberty?" Nothing else than this, whether you who are rich choose or not. "And who is your evidence for this?" who else than yourselves? who have a powerful master, and who live in obedience to his nod and motion, and who faint if he only looks at you with a scowling countenance; you who court old women and old men, and say, "I cannot do this: it is not in my power." Why is it not in your power? Did you not lately contend with me and say that you are free "But Aprulla has hindered me." Tell the truth, then, slave, and do not run away from your masters, nor deny, nor venture to produce any one to assert your freedom, when you have so many evidences of your slavery. And indeed when a man is compelled by love to do something contrary to his opinion, and at the same time sees the better but has not the strength to follow it, one might consider him still more worthy of excuse as being held by a certain violent and, in a manner, a divine power. But who could endure you who are in love with old women and old men, and wipe the old women's noses, and wash them and give them presents, and also wait on them like a slave when they are sick, and at the same time wish them dead, and question the physicians whether they are sick unto death? And again, when in order to obtain these great and much admired magistracies and honours, you kiss the hands of these slaves of others, and so you are not the slave even of free men. Then you walk about before me in stately fashion, praetor or a consul. Do I not know how you became a praetor, by what means you got your consulship, who gave it to you? I would not even choose to live, if I must live by help of Felicion and endure his arrogance and servile insolence: for I know what a slave is, who is fortunate, as he thinks, and puffed up by pride.
"You then," a man may say, "are you free?" I wish, by the Gods, and pray to be free; but I am not yet able to face my masters, I still value my poor body, I value greatly the preservation of it entire, though I do not possess it entire. But I can point out to you a free man, that you may no longer seek an example. Diogenes was free. How was he free?- not because he was born of free parents, but because he was himself free, because he had cast off all the handles of slavery, and it was not possible for any man to approach him, nor had any man the means of laying hold of him to enslave him. He had everything easily loosed, everything only hanging to him. If you laid hold of his property, he would rather have let it go and be yours than he would have followed you for it: if you had laid hold of his leg, he would have let go his leg; if of all his body, all his poor body; his intimates, friends, country, just the same. For he knew from whence he had them, and from whom, and on what conditions. His true parents indeed, the Gods, and his real country he would never have deserted, nor would he have yielded to any man in obedience to them or to their orders, nor would any man have died for his country more readily. For he was not used to inquire when he should be considered to have done anything on behalf of the whole of things, but he remembered that everything which is done comes from thence and is done on behalf of that country and is commanded by him who administers it. Therefore see what Diogenes himself says and writes: "For this reason," he says, "Diogenes, it is in your power to speak both with the King of the Persians and with Archidamus the king of the Lacedaemonians, as you please." Was it because he was born of free parents? I suppose all the Athenians and all the Lacedaemonians, because they were born of slaves, could not talk with them as they wished, but feared and paid court to them. Why then does he say that it is in his power? "Because I do not consider the poor body to be my own, because I want nothing, because law is everything to me, and nothing else is." These were the things which permitted him to be free.
And that you may not think that I show you the example of a man who is a solitary person, who has neither wife nor children, nor country, nor friends nor kinsmen, by whom he could be bent and drawn in various directions, take Socrates and observe that he had a wife and children, but he did not consider them as his own; that he had a country, so long as it was fit to have one, and in such a manner as was fit; friends and kinsmen also, but he held all in subjection to law and to the obedience due to it. For this reason he was the first to go out as a soldier, when it was necessary; and in war he exposed himself to danger most unsparingly, and when he was sent by the tyrants to seize Leon, he did not even deliberate about the matter, because he thought that it was a base action, and he knew that he must die, if it so happened. And what difference did that make to him? for he intended to preserve something else, not his poor flesh, but his fidelity, his honourable character. These are things which could not be assailed nor brought into subjection. Then, when he was obliged to speak in defense of his life, did he behave like a man who had children, who had a wife? No, but he behaved like a man who has neither. And what did he do when he was to drink the poison, and when he had the power of escaping from prison, and when Crito said to him, "Escape for the sake of your children," what did Socrates say? Did he consider the power of escape as an unexpected gain? By no means: he considered what was fit and proper; but the rest he did not even look at or take into the reckoning. For he did not choose, he said, to save his poor body, but to save that which is increased and saved by doing what is just, and is impaired and destroyed by doing what is unjust. Socrates will not save his life by a base act; he who would not put the Athenians to the vote when they clamoured that he should do so, he who refused to obey the tyrants, he who discoursed in such a manner about virtue and right behavior. It is not possible to save such a man's life by base acts, but he is saved by dying, not by running away. For the good actor also preserves his character by stopping when he ought to stop, better than when he goes on acting beyond the proper time. What then shall the children of Socrates do? "If," said Socrates, "I had gone off to Thessaly, would you have taken care of them; and if I depart to the world below, will there be no man to take care of them?" See how he gives to death a gentle name and mocks it. But if you and I had been in his place, we should have immediately answered as philosophers that those who act unjustly must be repaid in the same way, and we should have added, "I shall be useful to many, if my life is saved, and if I die, I shall be useful to no man." For, if it had been necessary, we should have made our escape by slipping through a small hole. And how in that case should we have been useful to any man? for where would they have been then staying? or if we were useful to men while we were alive, should we not have been much more useful to them by dying when we ought to die, and as we ought? And now, Socrates being dead, no less useful to men, and even more useful, is the remembrance of that which he did or said when he was alive.
Think of these things, these opinions, these words: look to these examples, if you would be free, if you desire the thing according to its worth. And what is the wonder if you buy so great a thing at the price of things so many and so great? For the sake of this which is called "liberty," some hang themselves, others throw themselves down precipices, and sometimes even whole cities have perished: and will you not for the sake of the true and unassailable and secure liberty give back to God when He demands them the things which He has given? Will you not, as Plato says, study not to die only, but also to endure torture, and exile, and scourging, and, in a word, to give up all which is not your own? If you will not, you will be a slave among slaves, even you be ten thousand times a consul; and if you make your way up to the Palace, you will no less be a slave; and you will feel, that perhaps philosophers utter words which are contrary to common opinion, as Cleanthes also said, but not words contrary to reason. For you will know by experience that the words are true, and that there is no profit from the things which are valued and eagerly sought to those who have obtained them; and to those who have not yet obtained them there is an imagination that when these things are come, all that is good will come with them; then, when they are come, the feverish feeling is the same, the tossing to and fro is the same, the satiety, the desire of things which are not present; for freedom is acquired not by the full possession of the things which are desired, but by removing the desire. And that you may know that this is true, as you have laboured for those things, so transfer your labour to these; be vigilant for the purpose of acquiring an opinion which will make you free; pay court to a philosopher instead of to a rich old man: be seen about a philosopher's doors: you will not disgrace yourself by being seen; you will not go away empty nor without profit, if you go to the philosopher as you ought, and if not, try at least: the trial is not disgraceful.
Copied from:
https://classics.mit.edu/Epictetus/discourses.4.four.html
Post by: Strongpoint on January 04, 2024, 02:05:24 pm
Not unexpected at all. Well, I think our mission is not only empty Russian stocks but NKs and Iranian too
Post by: King Zultan on January 05, 2024, 04:10:25 am
If there was a reason I've forgotten it because I spent so long reading the entire thing.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 05, 2024, 09:40:13 pm
Legit question - what should a democratic country that wages a war for survival do whenThrow 'em incowards and egoistsfreedom-loving individuals go - "No, I refuse to be mobilized, I am not a slave"?
As I understand, many parts of Europe have the more humane "make them work twice as long in non-military service". When I visited Europe in the mid 2000s, the guys working at the Youth Hostel were serving their mandatory non-military service. So they can help in logistics.
I'm reminded of the famous US slogan, which I may be misquoting: "Freedom ain't Free"
Post by: Strongpoint on January 06, 2024, 12:48:02 am
Legit question - what should a democratic country that wages a war for survival do whenThrow 'em incowards and egoistsfreedom-loving individuals go - "No, I refuse to be mobilized, I am not a slave"?jailPrison. It's the US policy. (https://www.military.com/join-armed-forces/everything-you-need-know-about-military-selective-service-system.html#:~:text=Those%20men%20were%20offered%20amnesty,or%20a%20combination%20of%20both.)
As I understand, many parts of Europe have the more humane "make them work twice as long in non-military service". When I visited Europe in the mid 2000s, the guys working at the Youth Hostel were serving their mandatory non-military service. So they can help in logistics.
I'm reminded of the famous US slogan, which I may be misquoting: "Freedom ain't Free"
I am more from the "strip them from citizenship and let those freedom-loving people go to any country ready to accept them" camp but both that and the jail option will be treated by a huge chunk of the world as "See, Ukraine is no better than Russia, it also goes for forced mobilization!"
Post by: EuchreJack on January 06, 2024, 01:53:45 am
The only people that are going to criticize Ukraine mobilizing its citizens are the same people that are going to blame Ukraine for not surrendering already.Legit question - what should a democratic country that wages a war for survival do whenThrow 'em incowards and egoistsfreedom-loving individuals go - "No, I refuse to be mobilized, I am not a slave"?jailPrison. It's the US policy. (https://www.military.com/join-armed-forces/everything-you-need-know-about-military-selective-service-system.html#:~:text=Those%20men%20were%20offered%20amnesty,or%20a%20combination%20of%20both.)
As I understand, many parts of Europe have the more humane "make them work twice as long in non-military service". When I visited Europe in the mid 2000s, the guys working at the Youth Hostel were serving their mandatory non-military service. So they can help in logistics.
I'm reminded of the famous US slogan, which I may be misquoting: "Freedom ain't Free"
I am more from the "strip them from citizenship and let those freedom-loving people go to any country ready to accept them" camp but both that and the jail option will be treated by a huge chunk of the world as "See, Ukraine is no better than Russia, it also goes for forced mobilization!"
I'm afraid that mobilization is not the problem. The lack of progress in changing the lines is the problem.
But hey, how much aid has the US thrown into Israel and for how many years? And has Israel made any progress whatsoever? Welcome to Israel, population you.
You might as well start calling the Donbas region "Palestine"...But the US at least will keep throwing money at Ukraine.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 06, 2024, 02:36:11 am
If we don't return those territories in a few years (and I don't see how - barring some huge black swan) they will be lost forever like former Ukrainian ethnic territories of Belgorod or Kuban.
Post by: da_nang on January 06, 2024, 08:33:16 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 10, 2024, 03:31:24 pm
Post by: Telgin on January 10, 2024, 03:59:03 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 10, 2024, 04:29:57 pm
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/09/deputy-mayor-plant-managers-detained-over-major-power-outage-in-moscow-region-a83662 - these kind of accidents happens all over the place. But there is nothing truly major, yet. Few hundred people here, few hundred there. It is not like huge blackouts. Still - entertaining to watch.
As for the strikes, we promised to strike Russian energy infrastructure in return for them targeting ours... And demonstrated our ability to do so in... October I think. And, miracle, Russians don't strike our energy infrastructure, opting for other targets. Fear of retaliation works
Post by: Madman198237 on January 10, 2024, 04:42:37 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 10, 2024, 06:38:55 pm
Wait really? Russia gave up on the infrastructure strikes? When did this happen?
They don't hit energy infrastructure at any major scale this fall\winter choosing other types of infrastructure. I can't say if it is just a chance of strategy, better work of our air defense, or indeed - fear of retaliation by drones but this winter is unlike the last one, despite the energy system being in a poor state after the last year, we avoid rolling blackouts.
Post by: anewaname on January 10, 2024, 08:22:34 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on January 11, 2024, 11:22:26 pm
I saw a news headline about some people in Moscow not having heat right now, but what's actually happening? I know Ukraine has hit some stuff in Russia, but they haven't caused any significant damage to Russian infrastructure have they?
There is also using any excuse to siphon money. If a Mayor's city is hit with a Ukrainian drone, they can claim that Ukraine destroyed 20% of the fuel generators, then sell the oil they're not using to line their own pockets. Even if the missile only destroyed an abandoned barn next to the fuel generators....
Post by: EuchreJack on January 12, 2024, 12:49:01 pm
https://www.businessinsider.com/half-russia-imported-military-technology-us-eu-companies-ukraine-2024-1?amp (https://www.businessinsider.com/half-russia-imported-military-technology-us-eu-companies-ukraine-2024-1?amp)
Post by: Great Order on January 12, 2024, 02:08:49 pm
Wooooooow.
Are Western governments actually going after the companies that are subverting the sanctions? I can't recall ever seeing anyone getting punished for it, despite everyone knowing it's going on.
EDIT:
Quote
The researchers called on Western lawmakers to step up restrictions on countries acting as third-party sellers, and to encourage the private sector to regulate itself better to comply with sanctions.
Oh yeah, self-regulation in the private sector, well known for working.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 12, 2024, 02:24:48 pm
But yes, US industry isn't gonna cut it's profits just to help .. anyone really.
Post by: feelotraveller on January 12, 2024, 03:35:10 pm
* Went for the longer form since the queues are looonnnggg.
Post by: hector13 on January 12, 2024, 03:41:40 pm
Post by: anewaname on January 12, 2024, 11:21:52 pm
Post by: martinuzz on January 12, 2024, 11:28:06 pm
Post by: King Zultan on January 13, 2024, 04:28:31 am
Post by: McTraveller on January 13, 2024, 11:59:27 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 13, 2024, 12:15:33 pm
Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something. Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.I wonder if it had anything to do with Russian police raiding warehouses to search for draft dodgers to nab (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/01/russian-police-raid-warehouse-in-search-of-war-recruits-reports-a83282)
Post by: Strongpoint on January 13, 2024, 03:19:10 pm
Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something. Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.
As far as I know, it is merely a version of ho the fire started. Also, the fire happened in a warehouse of Russian "Amazon" that treats its workers far worse than the real Amazon (yes, it is possible) so it may be revenge not against the government but against the company
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 13, 2024, 08:32:14 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on January 13, 2024, 10:33:58 pm
If it is anti-government partisans, I'm disappointed in the choice of target tbh. This does nothing to hurt the war effort, all it does is inconvenience people and destroy thousands of items for no good reason.Oh, I would not be so quick to discount the harm that destroying a commercial warehouse could do to the war effort.
1) The military needs consumer goods also.
2) The military probably subcontracts its logistical consumer goods needs to civilian organizations.
3) Even if this does no harm to the military, anything that pisses off the loyal citizens will help the war effort.
Without a news article (why is there no news article?!), I would still say this is a decent anti-government attack. Of course, maybe it was the Russian government itself.
"Russian officials, cited by state news agency TASS, said Wildberries had obtained permission to construct the warehouse, but not to operate it." (https://apnews.com/article/russia-st-petersburg-warehouse-fire-2ebc797315605079d18514267f9930b0)
Nevermind, it was the Russian government. They probably figured that if they burned down the warehouse, they could draft the surviving employees.
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 14, 2024, 12:24:14 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 14, 2024, 01:10:11 am
Why the same can't work with Ukrainians? Because whatever discomfort Russia may bring, it is still less bad than a genocidal occupation.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 14, 2024, 01:33:34 am
Eh. Fair enough. I'd still have picked something different and/or more directly military.
Strictly military targets are harder to damage due to security and less likely to be publicized, since the military can stifle information of all but most obvious and large acts of sabotage. Destroy a fuel depot and the flames are difficult to dismiss. Destroy a barracks, and the military can disavow any knowledge.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 14, 2024, 11:24:07 am
Wow, some Russian citizens burned down a massive warehouse in St. Petersburg. Sounds like some of the population is indeed getting in a mood to do something. Sounds like it was just consumer goods though... too bad it wasn't a military warehouse.
As far as I know, it is merely a version of ho the fire started. Also, the fire happened in a warehouse of Russian "Amazon" that treats its workers far worse than the real Amazon (yes, it is possible) so it may be revenge not against the government but against the company
For those not aware (you probably are) there's video evidence of Wildberries performing strip searches on employees before and after each shift. That alone is enough to get somebody to burn the place down.
If it is anti-government partisans, I'm disappointed in the choice of target tbh. This does nothing to hurt the war effort, all it does is inconvenience people and destroy thousands of items for no good reason.
There's a very high chance that companies like this one are heavily involved in the evasion of sanctions. If they are, then taking out a nerve center of their operations is probably one of the single most damaging blows that can be struck. Bringing home the reality of the war to the citizens of Moscow and Saint Petersburg, who (unlike most of the country) have reportedly been spared most of the domestic consequences such as conscription, is also a heavy blow.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 14, 2024, 12:37:49 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 20, 2024, 11:10:45 pm
Love to wake up to the news of its kind. It is what we need for victory, crippling the Russian infrastructure with cheap drone strikes adding to the overall negative trend of their economy. I see it as the only realistic path left because there is no way we can break through Russian fortification and\or recapture urban centers. Making Russia to run out of manpower is also impossible. We only need to make many, many more such strikes.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 22, 2024, 07:56:34 am
The decree calls for the development of a plan to preserve the Ukrainian identity of Ukrainians living in Russia, including on historically Ukrainian-populated lands.
The plan would include collecting and studying evidence of crimes committed against Ukrainians in Russia, countering Russian disinformation and propaganda, and developing cooperation between Ukrainians and other oppressed peoples in Russia.
The decree also calls for the Ukrainian government to work with the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine to prepare and disseminate materials about the history of Ukrainian statehood and the historical ties between Ukrainian-populated lands and Ukrainian national states.
The decree takes effect immediately.
Heh, I may watch Russian news this evening just to enjoy the fallout.
Post by: anewaname on January 22, 2024, 11:40:54 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 23, 2024, 02:16:14 am
But this step is still good for the possible future of Russian internal chaos. Something like the independent Kuban would be incredibly beneficial for us and we should be ready to support such movements. Creating legal base for it now is a good idea.
Post by: anewaname on January 23, 2024, 01:09:04 pm
Because, those that publicly express "wrong think" are persecuted, and for Russia, "wrong think" includes any thoughts that another cultural/ethnic groups is an equal of "Russian". So a Ukrainian could live within a Russian region and claim their Ukrainian heritage, but that claim would automatically label them as inferior to Ukrainians who claim themselves to be Russian, and far inferior to "actual" Russians, which would effect their political representation, which would effect their work income, which would effect their children's future, etc. The power to control people always comes from coercion against their family and against the families of their community.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 23, 2024, 10:21:05 pm
It has possibilities with regional governments. And even if few Russians can find their Inner Ukrainian, the fact that at least some Russian officials have to take it as a threat might prove useful.
...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 24, 2024, 12:27:47 am
...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".Most of the younger generation dislikes the current government, from my experiences. A crapshoot with anyone older than, idk, 25 or 30 or so.
The issue is that these dissatisfied people are not at all organized and are mostly afraid to do anything. I know because I AM ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE. :'(
Kinda lost my fighting spirit over the past year. Now I just... wait and faintly hope.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 24, 2024, 01:48:01 am
On the bright side, it might just give the justification that some newRussianEthnic Ukrainian-Russian Army General needs to convince his new regiment ofconscriptsEthnic Ukrainian-Russians todesertresume fighting for their TRUE nation.
It has possibilities with regional governments. And even if few Russians can find their Inner Ukrainian, the fact that at least some Russian officials have to take it as a threat might prove useful.
...God, I hope youthful rebellious nature isn't just an "American thing".
Russia is a semi-feudal state. What we actually need is several important persons in a region jointly deciding that declaring themselves a new state serves their interests more than obeying Moscow and that Moscow does not have enough strength to make them obey.
They will immediately remember their Ukrainian, Tarar, Caucasian, so on roots (even if they don't have any) or become of some novel ethnicity like Siberian or Kamchatkan
Post by: Starver on January 24, 2024, 08:47:25 am
I mean, my natural inclination is to disbelieve the Russian account (but lets see how long until fuller evidence/'evidence' of the tragedy's crash-site takes to emerge), even while admitting the possibility of Ukraine making an error. Or both could be true (POW transportation on a supply plane!).
Can't see this being disentangled, easily. If the Russians want bodies in the wreckage, they can arrange it. If the Russians taunted Ukraine with 'leaked information' about this being a resupply plane and then packed it with 'POW's and their least-considered aircrew, I also wouldn't be surprised, or consider this an overly paranoid thought process (on my part or theirs). Not the first time that non-combatant aircraft have been knocked out of these skies, either, by error or otherwise.
Either way, a scheduled prisoner-exchange is now delayed (to the benefit of nobody on the ground) and the fate of particular individuals is muddied (perhaps to the benefit of others). I'll let Ukraine do its own hand-wringing over this, based upon what they actually know they reasonably knew, but I'm sure the top-tier in Russia isn't too bothered (gives them a story to spin, real or otherwise, at least to the home crowd).
And further details have probably emerged even as I write this, so can't be sure even if this post is currently accurate, nor any of my wide-ranging assumptions.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 24, 2024, 09:22:02 am
In any case, there is no proof of that hours after the aircraft fell so there is hope.
Post by: anewaname on January 24, 2024, 06:39:33 pm
Post by: lemon10 on January 24, 2024, 09:58:50 pm
This short video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DeB8x9ljGwE) gives a good breakdown of why that plane probably had no prisoners and no s-300 missiles on it.
Quote from: Top comment by author on video
new update: Some of the names on the passenger list have been confirmed as already swapped on January 3rd.::) Yeah, just Russia being liars like usual.
Post by: King Zultan on January 25, 2024, 01:48:06 am
Post by: hector13 on January 25, 2024, 04:28:50 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 25, 2024, 04:36:18 am
Seems like anytime Russia says anything like this it's a lie, not sure why they think anyone will believe them when they try shit like this after all this.
At the very least, Russians in social networks are writing "ha-ha-ha, stupid Ukrainians killed their own Azov Nazies" instead of "why the hell we lost another aircraft?"
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 25, 2024, 09:15:47 am
Post by: anewaname on January 25, 2024, 12:34:06 pm
If they are a part of a group and do not feel it is safe to separate from the group, they will accept information as something they are expected to believe to maintain their position within that hierarchical group.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 25, 2024, 12:38:47 pm
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2024, 03:13:49 pm
If it supported Russia's position, they'd happily do so. If it didn't, they'd happily fudge something that apparently does.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 25, 2024, 05:22:37 pm
He furthermore said that the US and Germany will be accomplices if it is proven that a Patriot or IRIS-T was used. He said Russia is 'outraged' that international organizations refused to condemn the crash while also stating that 'Russia will do everything to ensure that all those responsible for the crash of the Il-76 are held accountable.'
Russia is playing some bizarre and morbid game of lies. Not only the route of the IL-76 makes no sense if it was loaded with POWs, If there were any corpses of Ukrainian POWs on the crash site they would show them already. I am really afraid that they will produce corpses via other means to keep this game going.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 25, 2024, 05:55:38 pm
They probably won't even bother bolstering this story with any new information, true or fake.
But it makes sense: Everyone in Russian Government lives in a reality where their word is law, and the word of the person over them is also law. They don't have accountability, and they never have to prove anything to anyone.
Most US news sources will either report the official position of the Russians or the Ukrainians as fact, only changing their reporting when some outside party brings new facts to their attention.
Republicans will mostly report this story as fact. Democrats will disassemble, disprove, and ignore it. Some brave soul will probably get at the Truth, but be quickly buried under a wave of Tomorrow's Important News.
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2024, 05:58:32 pm
"Ukraine is buried in its lies regarding the Il-76 disaster," ...*cough*MH-17*cough*
Almost laughable.
Post by: anewaname on January 26, 2024, 01:31:15 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 31, 2024, 01:13:52 pm
Post by: heydude6 on January 31, 2024, 01:30:50 pm
Post by: Frumple on January 31, 2024, 02:35:04 pm
... as for why it might be hesitant to make rulings, particularly ones favorable to countries in situations like Ukraine, though, well. Look at its current members (https://www.icj-cij.org/current-members) and take two guesses. It's not exactly going to be a neutral ruling body, ha.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 31, 2024, 10:15:25 pm
Ukraine lost the case against Russia in ICJ. (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/world-court-rule-whether-russia-violated-international-treaties-ukraine-2024-01-31/) I am so surprised (not)Actually, Ukraine kinda won.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 04, 2024, 03:28:16 am
I am deeply worried that Russia has such problems with violent crime. I hope that other Russian pilots will
Post by: Strongpoint on February 06, 2024, 04:25:07 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 06, 2024, 05:02:02 pm
You think they're supplying our buddy Tucker with a body double and a script, or will the genuine article drag his arse out of his bunker?
Post by: Strongpoint on February 06, 2024, 05:35:15 pm
According to the document, the use of weapons against citizens is permitted even in cases that only involve administrative offenses.
The new amendments specify that servicemen will not be held accountable for damages resulting from shootings conducted “in accordance with joint military statutes.”
____________
This one is very worrisome for me. Belarus is stable and has a massive police force to deal with any protests. Why would Lukashenko do this then? My answer is that he is planning to do something so outrageously unpopular that unrest is guaranteed. This means either
A) Belarus will join the war
B) A huge chunk of sovereignty will be given up to Russia, up to full annexation.
Post by: anewaname on February 06, 2024, 09:28:53 pm
Post by: Telgin on February 06, 2024, 09:29:20 pm
But it does seem at least somewhat plausible that Russia will try to annex Belarus or force them into the war. Both of those would probably set off a lot of trouble, but I'm not going to pretend to rub my crystal ball and guess what the results would mean for Ukraine. I could see it going either way, with Belarus devolving into civil war that distracts more from Russia's ability to fight, or them opening a new front of dubious capability.
Post by: KittyTac on February 06, 2024, 11:23:08 pm
I am a woke, LGBT western agent menace to Russian society who has not just zero but negative respect for my ancestors and my homeland's culture, history, and values.
Post by: Laterigrade on February 06, 2024, 11:33:16 pm
In what way?Ukraine lost the case against Russia in ICJ. (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/world-court-rule-whether-russia-violated-international-treaties-ukraine-2024-01-31/) I am so surprised (not)Actually, Ukraine kinda won.
Post by: Starver on February 06, 2024, 11:35:40 pm
I'm minded that that's where elements of Wagner were sent (at least initially), immediately following the coup-that-wasn't. Not recently hearing much about the fate of those bits (though there were ones that we de-/re-stabilising bits of Africa, etc), I can only guess on which side of the equation they're to be found righf now... But it occured to me that if they're not already dealt with (or 'dealt with'), in the general post-Prigozhin process of reassessment, then they might factor into this kind of powerplay. Willingly or otherwise.
(Someone will tell me that they're all now fully filtered into whatever present role they individually might have, whether fighting force or farm fertiliser. Or both, in the case of the latest Storm V units, now with lower degrees of short-term amnesty... But there's not been a recent reminder/update on my usual newswires, so I'm just working off the last relevent reports I'm prompted to remember.)
Post by: scriver on February 07, 2024, 07:05:38 am
The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has made changes to the laws that govern the country's armed forces, to grant servicemen the authority to use “firearms, special equipment, combat, and other equipment” when performing their duties, as reported by the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty.
According to the document, the use of weapons against citizens is permitted even in cases that only involve administrative offenses.
The new amendments specify that servicemen will not be held accountable for damages resulting from shootings conducted “in accordance with joint military statutes.”
____________
This one is very worrisome for me. Belarus is stable and has a massive police force to deal with any protests. Why would Lukashenko do this then? My answer is that he is planning to do something so outrageously unpopular that unrest is guaranteed. This means either
A) Belarus will join the war
B) A huge chunk of sovereignty will be given up to Russia, up to full annexation.
C) Lukashenko launches a hostile takeover of Russia
I mean OK not that likely but
Post by: Strongpoint on February 07, 2024, 09:02:28 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2024, 12:01:51 pm
Freaking wonderful. Just what we need during this stage of the war.
Post by: Telgin on February 08, 2024, 01:36:28 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2024, 02:00:05 pm
I also have no idea if Syrsky is a good commander or not, I heard mixed opinions on that. But this decision is VERY unpopular, this one I am sure about. It doesn't help already low morale.
Post by: Telgin on February 08, 2024, 03:21:35 pm
I guess we'll see how it shakes out. I also saw some rumblings about conscription coming up due to a shortage of soldiers, so this is probably going to get even more unpleasant for Ukrainians in the near future.
Post by: heydude6 on February 08, 2024, 03:29:14 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2024, 04:00:54 pm
IMO, Ukraine is heading into a serious political crisis.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 08, 2024, 04:03:46 pm
My mom always thought Zelensky was an idiot, comparing him to Trump. If she's right, perhaps this is just the result of a petty disagreement. We all saw what Trump did with his loyalty tests.Your mom's impression is basically consistent with mine.
... somehow that seems like a rude joke that went totally off track, but you know what I mean.
I've been following Ukrainian social media on and off for the past couple years, and while I haven't actually caught up on it recently because of doing other things, it really looks like some kind of uprising, maybe even a coup, is... not outside the realm of extreme plausibility.
Post by: heydude6 on February 08, 2024, 05:54:48 pm
it really looks like some kind of uprising, maybe even a coup, is... not outside the realm of extreme plausibility.
Had similar thoughts, but I didn't want to vocalize them. We are that kind of people. My worry is that a coup will either get hijacked by malevolent interests, or it will give the world the excuse it wants to cut off aid. Many people would call such a new government illegitimate.
Post by: Madman198237 on February 08, 2024, 08:18:59 pm
Good decisions would be highly appreciated right about now, and you would think that the powers-that-be would be encouraged by the constantly-dire situation to, y'know, make those good decisions in the interests of continuing to have a country in which they can remain the powers-that-be.
Good luck, Ukraine, you're going to need it.
Post by: Telgin on February 08, 2024, 08:23:18 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 08, 2024, 08:33:11 pm
for once I don't think I can see a way that Russia could be behind it.For one, it could be spreading and reinforcing the meme of a coup through its social media trolls. Sowing discord is what they do.
Zaluzhny going out was long in the talks. It's hardly an out of the blue decision.
Post by: hector13 on February 08, 2024, 08:43:44 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 08, 2024, 09:42:14 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 08, 2024, 09:47:53 pm
Post by: anewaname on February 08, 2024, 10:09:46 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 08, 2024, 10:25:21 pm
I would think that the situation in Avdiivka makes this a bad time - about a month ago would have been much better.Fair.
If Zaluzhny becomes involved in politics against Zelensky, it will be a good thing. Zaluzhny has been in involved in the war against Russia since the beginning and he will not sell out Ukraine to Russia, which is exactly what any other candidate running against Zelensky is likely to do.Spoiler effect not making everything worse for once...
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2024, 10:46:35 pm
Note how "popular" Zelensky was just before the war. He is slowly falling back there.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 08, 2024, 11:48:24 pm
I sometimes wish Western allies would configure themselves more like Ukrainians are, with definite resolve in the goal but also with healthy skepticism towards government officials, who are servants of the goal and not indispensable in themselves, and with one's wits around oneself. I remember reading about how EU advisors were acquiescing to Ukrainian government officials' demands about an internationally-advised candidate selection process for a panel of judges in Ukraine because they were afraid of stepping on toes by exceeding their welcome. I hope some other representatives from Ukraine, say from NGOs, got in contact with them to tell them to step on some toes. This sort of attitude is most effective, I think.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 09, 2024, 12:42:36 am
Post by: anewaname on February 09, 2024, 02:53:01 am
Some relevant sociology (https://kiis.com.ua/?lang=eng&cat=reports&id=1335&page=1)62% is not that bad considering the situation. It is easy to blame the leader when the future is uncertain, but there are also Ukrainian politicians and businessmen who see Zelensky as a direct competitor, and there are pro-Russian people and pro-Russian funding... These will all be sources of discontent for Ukraine in that next election. This is why I see Zaluzhny as a good political competitor for Zelensky, the Ukrainians would be getting someone who is fighting for them either way.
Note how "popular" Zelensky was just before the war. He is slowly falling back there.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 09, 2024, 03:29:06 am
Also, note that normal political life is on pause here and attacks on Zelensky are way less severe than they could have been. Nationalists/right centrists are in a "you don't criticize your president during a war" mode and/or too busy fighting/volunteering. Pro-Russians have minimal presence in the media hoping to wait the war out and never go beyond vague "we need peace" statements. Both will change in the case of elections.
Post by: KittyTac on February 09, 2024, 04:45:01 am
The first part of Putin's interview with Tucker is pure comedy gold in the genre of pseudohistory. I think Putin misunderstands the audience. He should have started with - "Trump is good, woke is bad. Russia is fighting to liberate Ukraine from woke neo-nazi." not bore them with Rurik and stuff.Not as many things to mock from my perspective as I wished, alas. Still a lot.
I find it very funny how I am exactly what the far-right in both countries complains about when they talk about "the woke mob". Yes, I actually want to weaken the nation. Yes, I actually want the normalization of degeneracy. Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 09, 2024, 09:40:28 am
Zelensky dismissed commander-in-chief Zaluzhny who was very popular and replaced him with a guy who is quite unpopular (especially in the army) but politically loyal to Zelensky.Actually, it makes perfect sense.
Freaking wonderful. Just what we need during this stage of the war.
Compare to the American Civil War. Playing defense was not going to achieve the Union's goals, which were reunification.
Lincoln had to go through several Generals before he found Blood & Guts Ulysses Grant. Who by the way, was sometimes hated by the troops. Ukraine needs results this year on Offense, or they're going to have to accept that Russia is keeping what they stole.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 09, 2024, 10:14:36 am
Post by: McTraveller on February 09, 2024, 10:35:40 am
Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
If you're talking about "being insular and bigoted and selfish and indulging ones desires to excess" then yes, burn those to the ground, but those I don't think have ever been values - "traditionally" those were called vices.
Post by: anewaname on February 09, 2024, 11:33:35 am
As long as Ukraine is striking into pre-war-Russia, the occupied territories are still contested.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 09, 2024, 12:37:40 pm
Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
It is actually amusing how Russia, a country with a huge divorce rate, ridiculously high abortion rate and abysmal church attendance, is seen as a country that cares about traditional values by the Western far-rights...
It is as if their definition of traditional values is anti-LGBT laws and decriminalized domestic violence...
Post by: McTraveller on February 09, 2024, 12:56:52 pm
Post by: KittyTac on February 09, 2024, 07:30:34 pm
I don't consider these traditional values, at least in the same sense as the far-right uses that term. I don't need tradition in order to not abuse those close to me.Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
Our traditional values are conformity and reactionarism.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 09, 2024, 10:32:29 pm
I don't consider these traditional values, at least in the same sense as the far-right uses that term. I don't need tradition in order to not abuse those close to me.Yes, I actually want to not just damage traditional values, but burn them to the ground.
Surely you don't mean "all" traditional values? You know, not stealing, not lying, not abusing people, being nice to neighbors and family, self control - those are all pretty "traditional".
Our traditional values are conformity and reactionarism.
Folks: This is not the thread to debate "Traditional Values". Take it outside.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 10, 2024, 02:28:37 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 10, 2024, 03:10:10 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 10, 2024, 04:48:40 am
Post by: Starver on February 10, 2024, 06:19:48 am
No realistic leader has yet created a space-force(!), but it's technically a different theatre of influence. Drone use might initially be easier to keep as subsets of the main services, each handling UAVs, USVs and (perhaps) ULVs directly, but there could be an argument for merging the shared expertise/elements.
(Doesn't stop there being still an Army Air Corps and Fleet Air Arm, in the UK, and I'm not familiar with US structure,save that US Marine Corps has planes,
AI and electronic stuff I'd say is GCHQ/No Such Agency territory, but there'd be collaboration and coordination with other same-nation (or allied) three-'letter' agencies and all around right now (the ability to properly collaborate/coordinate between various arms and agencies is a perceived failing of Russia's efforts). And it'd be no different coordinating hypothetical DroneForce activities with other branches as a proper inter-service coordination of service-specific drones, etc. Maybe better. Not knowing the suggested scope, I'd have personally said advanced militarised AI stuff might be better kept to the Intelligence (and/or Logistics) groupings/off-shoots, but I'd say that there's arguments for (and against) pooling remotely-piloted (even semi-autonomous) vehicles of all types together with strong liasing through to the conventional forces that then rely on them (including cross-medium, as the army can obviously make use of aerial drones and indeed scenarios where all services might use all medium-specific drones are readily apparent).
...well, just saying that wiser men(/women) than I might have good reason for trying to rearrange the umbrellas. Or it could be a Hail Mary, that won't benefit the situation in the short-/medium-term, but unless it turns out that we're best off considering something like Space Marines and Everybody Else Force as the best future optimum split then I think it has wings(/fins/legs/drills/teleporters) as an idea.
[1] Royal Flying Corps + Royal Naval Air Service -> Royal Air Force in 1918
[2] Aeronautical Division, Signal Corps (up to 1914) -> {several intermediate changes, still nominally within US Army} -> (from 1947 onwards) US Air Force as a 'third service'.
[3] Even landlocked countries find it applicable, as riverine/lacine, or at least a holdover from when they were not landlocked.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 10, 2024, 08:36:56 am
1) Naval ones. Navy is doing more than fine and they have specialists who understand how naval wars work and how to attack ships. Taking drones away from them can't result in anything good.
2) Quadrocopters and FPV drones. Those play the role of infantry support\recon and they need specialized platoons in the land forces, not a separate branch.
3) Unmanned aircrafts. Airforce uses them, tactics of their use aren't that different from regular airstrikes.
I see it as reform for the sake of reform. It is fine to experiment like this in peacetime but during a war it looks like an attempt to fix what is not broken.
Post by: Starver on February 10, 2024, 12:44:37 pm
Some things may need to be tried in warfare. The formation of the SAS/SBS. The development of the tank. As already mentioned, the RFC/RNAS merging to become the RAF. Successful examples, arguably, at least after teething troubles (tanks not really being the initial hit they should have been, and taking time to becomeva military mainstay).
I'm positing options and opinions, here. I'm sat in an armchair, but I'm no general (or admiral, or air chief marshall). There's certainly nuances I don't know, perhaps there are ones that nobody else here does. (In fact, I hope so.)
This doesn't also stop it from being a case of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic (the John Finnemore take on this, excepting). The future will tell.
Post by: anewaname on February 10, 2024, 03:44:12 pm
Doing this in wartime is better than in peacetime, since the unit will be formed with more merit than politics.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 10, 2024, 10:09:39 pm
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html)
Post by: Bumber on February 11, 2024, 12:20:13 am
I'm sorry, my Ukrainian friends, but Trump works for Putin.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html)
Expect aid money to be paid back at some point? Working for Putin.
Biden withholding a $1B loan to Ukraine until a prosecutor is fired? _________
Post by: EuchreJack on February 11, 2024, 12:39:12 am
Trumpspeak: Don't do [useless banter that means nothing]I'm sorry, my Ukrainian friends, but Trump works for Putin.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/10/politics/trump-foreign-aid-loan-senate-package/index.html)
Expect aid money to be paid back at some point? Working for Putin.
Biden withholding a $1B loan to Ukraine until a prosecutor is fired? _________
Republican'ts: Yes Sire, we won't do it!
So yes, this helps Putin.
I was unaware of Biden withholding any sort of funding to Ukraine, so please provide a link.
Post by: Bumber on February 11, 2024, 12:46:06 am
So yes, this helps Putin.
How?
I was unaware of Biden withholding any sort of funding to Ukraine, so please provide a link.
https://oversight.house.gov/timeline/ukraine-11/biden-firing-ukraine-prosecutor-clip/
Clip is from January 2018. Threatening to withhold loan happened during Obama admin.
Based on your article, you seem to have an issue with loans (or money with strings attached) to Ukraine in general?
Post by: EuchreJack on February 11, 2024, 12:50:36 am
So yes, this helps Putin.
How?I was unaware of Biden withholding any sort of funding to Ukraine, so please provide a link.
https://oversight.house.gov/timeline/ukraine-11/biden-firing-ukraine-prosecutor-clip/
Clip is from January 2018. Threatening to withhold loan happened during Obama admin.
Sir, please take your petty grievances against Biden out of this thread. You are citing an incident in 2018, when Biden was not even President. This war started in 2022.
If Trump wishes to prove me wrong by throwing his weight behind the War in Ukraine, instead of against it, I would be glad to see it.
Post by: Bumber on February 11, 2024, 12:51:06 am
Sir, please take your petty grievances against Biden out of this thread. You are citing an incident in 2018, when Biden was not even President. This war started in 2022.
If Trump wishes to prove me wrong by throwing his weight behind the War in Ukraine, instead of against it, I would be glad to see it.
It describes events from Obama admin.
Crimea amnesia?
Trump's not president now. Take your petty grievances out, then.
Post by: hector13 on February 11, 2024, 12:54:09 am
Post by: EuchreJack on February 11, 2024, 12:55:42 am
Sir, please take your petty grievances against Biden out of this thread. You are citing an incident in 2018, when Biden was not even President. This war started in 2022.
If Trump wishes to prove me wrong by throwing his weight behind the War in Ukraine, instead of against it, I would be glad to see it.
It describes events from Obama admin.
Crimea amnesia?
Personally, I am more concerned with the ongoing war, and less with the prior war in Crimea. Lying shitbag politicians change their mind and positions.
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
If you can show me that their current (2023-2024), publicly stated positions have changed, that would be more relevant to this discussion.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 11, 2024, 12:59:32 am
Take your petty grievances out, then.Just wanted to acknowledge and apologize for not respecting your very real and very legitimate concerns about Senile Old Biden. But that is not relevant to the discussion of whom supports Ukraine. I mean, Biden might not know where Ukraine IS, but he has been steered towards liking Ukraine, and that is good for purposes of supporting Ukraine.
Post by: Bumber on February 11, 2024, 01:03:06 am
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 11, 2024, 01:07:24 am
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
So, to explain the Geopolitical situation as I see it, Russia stole about a third of Ukraine. Peace likely means that Russia gets to keep what they stole, emboldening Russia to invade anyone else that is not in Nato. In addition, once Ukraine joins Nato, they NEVER can get back any of the land that they have lost to Russia.
In addition, letting Russia gain from this invasion emboldens other countries, like China, to snatch up territory.
Ergo, I am Against Peace and Pro War.
Post by: Bumber on February 11, 2024, 01:09:36 am
Peace likely means that Russia gets to keep what they stole, emboldening Russia to invade anyone else that is not in Nato.
I don't see Ukraine ever accepting this condition, even if Trump pushes them to.
I guess Ukraine just stalls peace talks until Putin dies of illness?
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 11, 2024, 01:22:32 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 11, 2024, 03:48:21 am
Biden is anti-war, his administration is very focused on avoiding escalation. Trump is not anti-war, he is just Pro-Russian. If Trump would be in charge now with all that Israel stuff, the US would already be involved in a war with Iran. At the very least, strikes against Iranian proxies would be far more frequent.Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Why does Biden still help Ukraine? Because it is in American interests, it is a very cost-efficient way to hurt Russia. But Biden's administration is anything but hawks.
Quote
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.WTH do you mean by "letting Ukraine bleed"? It sounds like you are saying "Ukraine is fighting because American masters told them to." which is frequently used by Russian propaganda. Or do you mean that without American assistance Russia will quickly win and the war will stop?
It is not how it works. Syrian opposition fought for years with no airforce or air defense. Hamas resists Israel for several months and they are basically light infantry with limited supplies. Small Chechnya fought Russia for many months being armed even worse than Hamas. Ukrainian army will become something like that without assistance. Russians will still need to punch through urban areas leveling them to the ground and fighting increasingly desperate Ukrainian units.
Also, Ukraine is quite big. Russia won't be able to occupy all of it quickly. Without Western assistance, we will lose air defense, meaning that our industry will be mostly destroyed but the country will still have enough left to go into total war mode, with total militarization of the economy, war rationing, harsh mobilization, etc. Russia will need years of extremely bloody war to finish.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 11, 2024, 05:58:37 am
WTH do you mean by "letting Ukraine bleed"? It sounds like you are saying "Ukraine is fighting because American masters told them to." which is frequently used by Russian propaganda. Or do you mean that without American assistance Russia will quickly win and the war will stop?He's saying it's in American interest to weaken Russia by keeping them engaged in a prolonged, costly war. More than having Ukraine win. Hence the support that keeps you going, but not much beyond that.
Not and uncommon view among the crowd with more realpolitik-tinted optics.
Post by: anewaname on February 11, 2024, 01:13:38 pm
EJ’s a dyed in the woolFTFYRepublicanRINO, brah.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 12, 2024, 04:30:40 am
Post by: Cathar on February 12, 2024, 10:10:40 am
Ukrainian army will become something like that without assistance.I saw an ukrainian Bradley IFV take on a russian T-80 and win, and there's nothing like that fascist piece of junk wailing helplessly before exploding, launching its turret in the startosphere, carbonizing its own crew in the process, to keep you keenly aware that the issue of the war is, to this day, still to be determined.
Also seing the damages that our Césars do on russian hardware makes me proud to pay my taxes for the first time in my life. There's a denazification going on alright, just not the one russia expected.
On and, I heard they are sending Russian youtubers to the frontline, now, which is what you do when you have a large manpower reserve left.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 12, 2024, 11:34:44 am
I am just saying that even in the worst-case scenario, should Western aid disappear, war will not magically stop. On the contrary, it will become bloodier.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 12, 2024, 04:00:25 pm
Extremely suspicious...
EDIT: Article mentions he might have been the only one from Internal Defense ministry willing to negotiate with protestors. Not sure how much or how little that's worth...
Post by: feelotraveller on February 12, 2024, 11:11:32 pm
https://english.nv.ua/nation/30-km-tsar-train-built-by-russians-in-donetsk-using-stolen-cars-deepstate-50391895.html (https://english.nv.ua/nation/30-km-tsar-train-built-by-russians-in-donetsk-using-stolen-cars-deepstate-50391895.html)
Post by: Strongpoint on February 13, 2024, 03:11:16 am
Zelenskyy appoints former Berkut commander who dispersed Euromaidan crowds to leader position of Territorial Defence. (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/02/11/7441370/)It is a politically charged appointment but it is really not a big deal, Zelensky appointed way more controversial guys during his term.
Extremely suspicious...
EDIT: Article mentions he might have been the only one from Internal Defense ministry willing to negotiate with protestors. Not sure how much or how little that's worth...
Plakhuta didn't command all of the Internal troops (Who are not Berkut) only the Southern Command and wasn't involved in following criminal orders. Also, December 10 was in the beginning, way before serious violence started. Law enforcement removing tents and barricades in a capital city is not exactly criminal or treasonous.
Also, his last place of work involved training our Special Operations Forces, if he is disloyal then he is in a less harmful position now.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 14, 2024, 04:14:01 pm
Cool! R.I.P. The Outer Space Treaty
Post by: Eric Blank on February 14, 2024, 09:09:16 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on February 14, 2024, 10:04:55 pm
Post by: King Zultan on February 15, 2024, 02:27:35 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 15, 2024, 02:39:11 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 15, 2024, 03:05:25 am
Nuking a country that sends nuclear weapons into space might not be that strange of an idea.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 15, 2024, 04:51:05 am
Designs for such were finished years ago, but were cancelled due to the end of the Cold War and the possibility of severe diplomatic fallout.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 15, 2024, 07:18:00 am
Honestly, I can't get particularly moved about it. Satellite warfare was an inevitable step and this is clearly the time for it to happen, what with the use of Starlink. Russia have also been jamming GPS on the ground for a while now. Satellites are an inherently unreliable technology in an adversarial setting.
Post by: Starver on February 15, 2024, 08:27:16 am
And you couldn't surgically remove a foreign country's platform from space. Get rid of just the one spy-/monitor-sat (let's say by a hypothetical zero-debris EMP-pulse attack, to ignore the issue of an expanding/spreading cloud of schrapnel) just introduces a 'hole' in coverage that other current and imminently launchable replacements can fill (assuming the EMPing country isn't going to immediately assume it can use that gap to launch, which the EMPed country may also be able to assume). The single disabled satellite, assuming it isn't hardened enough to be at least reactivated, is now its own chunk of uncontrollable projectile, meaning that anything else out there has the full onus for adjusting to keep a safe path past/across its orbit. There may be secondary victims within range of the attempt to plug up a particular orbital keyhole, and they might be as much of a problem, perhaps less hardened (civilian-type purpose, not intrinsically pre-hardened against attack, vulnerable whilst passing further away from the ambush position) and likely in similar-period orbits so might even be prime candidates to cross the same path half an orbit hence (or multiple: 1, 1.5, 2, ..., until the differences in resonance sends them 'apart' rather than potentially together), now pure space-junk.
Debris from the attacking kill-sat (and/or from the killed-sat, or ultimately any subsequent collisions that might occur (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_satellite_collision)) are probably the thing to ultimately worry about (assuming the initial action, and what happens then on the ground, hasn't stopped anyone from caring too much about anything/anyone still sat above it all in Earth orbit), as it secondary, tertiary, quaternary(, etc) collisions then become increasingly inevitable. Or at least that's the theory. So far not realised (a handful of significant unintended occasions only, and several noted deliberate tests by the Soviet, US, Chinese and Indian (aero)space agencies, at least some of which set up using deliberately decaying orbits). Then there's the Starship Prime-like not-quite-spaceborne testing of potential anti-sat measures.
By today's standards of space-cooperation, it seems that Russia is the most likely to press such circumstances (with conventional attacks against their own 'test' targets) with perhaps eight active tests over the last decade, plus active manouvering of 'shadowing' craft (to relatively close proximity of actual US hardware). Though maybe the US/etc has just done enough to know that their hardware is capable, and the other nations with a space-launch capability have satisfied themselves about their ability to 'thread the needle' and are keeping their full hand close to their chest.
Nuclear material in space isn't that surprising, with numerous RTGs scraping by, and I'd be very surprised if there haven't been more actual weaponised deployments than anyone suspects, perhaps midway between sensible RTG amounts of material and 'full-blown' bomb-sized. But, as with ground warfare, first use of actual nuclear weapons will be a "first-strike of last-resort", with kinetic attacks of various kinds being more easy to fulfil and 'justify' without necessarily tripping things over into WW3 (though it wouldn't really help stop that, either).
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 15, 2024, 08:47:49 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 15, 2024, 10:59:43 am
Post by: Madman198237 on February 15, 2024, 11:02:40 am
So no, there are no nukes floating about in space. It would be noticed if somebody had put one there; it's not that easy to hide what a space launch is sending up there really aren't that many of them compared to resources and means available to determine what was launched. Noticed and dealt with either loudly or quietly.
Post by: Starver on February 15, 2024, 12:29:46 pm
But it's an essentially unfalsifiable claim. There are enough even wilder ideas out there about what is 'out there' through black projects.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 15, 2024, 03:18:04 pm
There is no continuum between RTG and nuclear bomb. Absolutely none. You cannot turn an RTG into a nuclear bomb. None of the components are equivalent. Not the nuclear material, not the casing, not the thermoelectric couplers that make an RTG an RTG. An RTG will under no circumstances behave like a nuclear bomb. A nuclear reactor ALSO won't behave like a nuclear bomb, but at least there you could theoretically continue to enrich the fuel (assuming it's not a US Navy-esque high-power-density highly-enriched-uranium reactor) to maintain some small amount of commonality.That was my initial response as well, but before I posted, I realized that it looks like Starver literally meant that RITEGs contain less fuel, by mass, than nuclear bombs. Which is literally true, even though it is a completely pointless comparison to make.
So no, there are no nukes floating about in space. It would be noticed if somebody had put one there; it's not that easy to hide what a space launch is sending up there really aren't that many of them compared to resources and means available to determine what was launched. Noticed and dealt with either loudly or quietly.
(Also, Pu238 had been studied as a viable bomb material, although nothing ever came of it [I'm assuming you know that real plutonium bombs use 239], and if you smashed enough RTG fuel together it would reach criticality and irradiate you to death, so at least there's some sense in which the material itself is bomb-adjacent, even if it's not a very good one.)
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2024, 07:16:24 am
What can I say? He was brave and he loved his country. But his death is inconsequential for Russian politics.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 16, 2024, 07:43:00 am
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
Post by: Madman198237 on February 16, 2024, 10:40:44 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 16, 2024, 03:10:37 pm
NavalnyGuy had massive balls going back to Mother Russia after being poisoned. He had to know he was setting himself up for a death sentence. I wonder what was the purpose in his mind.was murderedsuddenly died in a Russian prison.
What can I say? He was brave and he loved his country. But his death is inconsequential for Russian politics.
Post by: heydude6 on February 16, 2024, 04:11:33 pm
Guy had massive balls going back to Mother Russia after being poisoned. He had to know he was setting himself up for a death sentence. I wonder what was the purpose in his mind.
Don't be so quick to assume there was a master plan. Remember Prigrozyn.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 16, 2024, 05:33:45 pm
Rest in peace. A brave and determined man.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 16, 2024, 05:59:46 pm
FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 16, 2024, 06:30:02 pm
FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
No, actually, you are not the only ones.
Post by: anewaname on February 16, 2024, 07:35:43 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 16, 2024, 08:25:59 pm
I didn't say more because I didn't want to start a fight.FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
But he was very racist against Central Asians. He said he would deport them from Moscow, ffs. And he basically would do nothing about the oligarchs.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 16, 2024, 08:28:04 pm
I didn't say more because I didn't want to start a fight.In the West we are pretty much not told any of that in the media. People generally only know that he opposed Putin, so he must be great - rarely does anyone think to ask "from which direction?"
But he was very racist against Central Asians. He said he would deport them from Moscow, ffs. And he basically would do nothing about the oligarchs.
Post by: martinuzz on February 16, 2024, 11:34:47 pm
Russian, rise against. now is the time. Go to the streets. Protest. Yes, some of you will be killed and tortured. But don't fear. You need to take arms against your nazi Putinist oppressors. Better dead than a cog in the wheel of evil.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2024, 11:50:54 pm
The question now is what will be the next Russian focus.
_________________
As for Navalny - enemies of bad guys, even brave martyrs, aren't always good guys. Also, his decision to return to Russia in 2021 was idiotic. He could achieve so much from abroad.
_________________
martinuzz, nah, Russian opposition calls for another method of resistance. Come to the presidential "elections" legitimizing them and write in Navalny's name.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 17, 2024, 12:14:07 am
I gave up what little resistance activities I was doing and am mostly keeping a low profile. Have been for months.
Post by: martinuzz on February 17, 2024, 12:25:17 am
I will, even though sometimes I might sound harsh and call for uprising.
I am still aware that not all people are born to be warriors, and I guess that's a good thing.
Love respect.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 17, 2024, 12:27:28 am
"from which direction?"Have you seen his debate with Girkin from 2017? To me it encapsulates the difference between the current Russia and his idea of the same. He was no saint, but his Russia would be a massive improvement over what we have.
Post by: Cathar on February 17, 2024, 12:45:16 am
I didn't say more because I didn't want to start a fight.FThat's an understatement for sure.
Honestly he had some wacky ass beliefs.
I feel like you and I are the only people in the thread who know that...
But he was very racist against Central Asians. He said he would deport them from Moscow, ffs. And he basically would do nothing about the oligarchs.
He also supported the annexion of Crimea. Putin murdering his opponents is absolutely appaling but Navalny is not a man I'd cheer.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 17, 2024, 01:01:55 am
I cannot say you are wrong. If you do move to Europe, there will be folks hating Russians. But there will be just as many or hopefully more folks understanding your decision to leave, and respecting that.It's mostly a vocal minority from what I can tell? And it's not really the kind of people I would want to associate with regardless. I didn't choose to be born here.
I will, even though sometimes I might sound harsh and call for uprising.
I am still aware that not all people are born to be warriors, and I guess that's a good thing.
Love respect.
I mean yeah Navalny would be better than Putin but in the same sense being punched is better than being strangled. If I could press a button to make one of his underlings who share his ideology to come into power instantly, I would, but it's far from my ideal either."from which direction?"Have you seen his debate with Girkin from 2017? To me it encapsulates the difference between the current Russia and his idea of the same. He was no saint, but his Russia would be a massive improvement over what we have.
Post by: martinuzz on February 17, 2024, 01:13:50 am
It's mostly a vocal minority from what I can tell?I hope so. It used to be. Society is crazy polarized. Vocal minorities have been turning into vocal not-so minorities recently in the Western world, with populist politicians, and populist influencers giving them a larger stage than they should have, and people buying their shit as if it tasted like candy.
Still shocked about our recent election results over here.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 17, 2024, 02:06:25 am
"from which direction?"Have you seen his debate with Girkin from 2017? To me it encapsulates the difference between the current Russia and his idea of the same. He was no saint, but his Russia would be a massive improvement over what we have.
If Navalny was a president, Ukraine wouldn't exist anymore (or be in a much worse shape). Navalny's Russia would have a stronger less corrupt army, stronger and less corrupt economy and better relations with the West, making the war far easier for them.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 17, 2024, 02:58:21 am
If Navalny was a president, Ukraine wouldn't exist anymore (or be in a much worse shape). Navalny's Russia would have a stronger less corrupt army, stronger and less corrupt economy and better relations with the West, making the war far easier for them.I'd have to rewatch that discussion to make sure I got this right, but from memory his main point of contention with Girkin was that he was against the war.
Seemed rather unequivocally against rebuilding the Russian empire and instead wanting to focus on fixing things back home. He was castigating the other guy for his commitment to spreading the shit state of affairs in Russia to places abroad as if that was a value in itself.
By that time at least. His views did evolve. Perhaps he flipped back to his earlier self later on, and I'm just not aware of this.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 17, 2024, 03:07:10 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 17, 2024, 03:50:31 am
To illustrate why Ukrainians aren't very fond of Navalny. Here is a small video from 2020 with Navalny's opinion on Ukrainian politics (with English subtitles).
Not that we love our politicians but calling ours worse than Russian is... magnificent.
What would he do if he was magically in charge? He would be curing Ukraine from corruption (and protect Russian-speakers from the worse-than-Putin mafia of course!).
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 17, 2024, 05:06:26 am
Navalny certainly was never "against the war" in and of itselfThat's almost literally what he said in that debate when they started talking about Donbas.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 17, 2024, 05:34:02 am
What we're both saying is that he supported the ideology behind the war. If his position in 2017 was that Russia should focus on internal issues before invading Ukraine, then, setting aside for the moment that he was a politician who would say whatever worked, the most likely conclusion is that, if he had been in power, he would have focused on internal issues and then invaded Ukraine, from a stronger position. Just like Strong Sad said.Navalny certainly was never "against the war" in and of itselfThat's almost literally what he said in that debate when they started talking about Donbas.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 17, 2024, 06:26:08 am
If his position in 2017 was that Russia should focus on internal issues before invading UkraineIt wasn't. Listen to the debate.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 17, 2024, 07:48:39 am
Post by: anewaname on February 17, 2024, 12:31:23 pm
So, Navalvy gives his speech in 2020 and the Ukrainian politicians, who had gained much political power by running on "we are proud Ukrainians who don't want corrupt politicians", did not like being called corrupt, so they used that video clip to stir up "Ukrainian nationalism" to fight against "Russian nationalism". They intentionally blacked out Navalvy's message to keep their own grift from being questioned.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 17, 2024, 01:32:23 pm
Also, it is not a part of a speech, I have seen the full version (in Russian with no subtitles). It was an answer to a question about Zelensky and that was his view of Ukrainian elites, not politicians. Those are different things.
A typical view of Ukraine by a typical Navalny supporter can be summarized like this:
Ukraine is a corrupt shithole of rural idiots who don't respect proper Russians enough. They drove their country to poverty by their sheer stupidity (as if the war, first economic and propaganda one then a very real one has nothing to do with that). Even their dictator was weak, soft, and pathetic and it was the only reason why Ukrainians made him flee, ours is so much stronger!
And Navalny never deviated from that far away. But with some usual empty words like "wonderful country" or "brotherly people" or whatever.
Post by: heydude6 on February 17, 2024, 04:12:03 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 17, 2024, 04:59:45 pm
It wasn't. Listen to the debate.Look, Navalny's political party that he founded literally calls for the reintegration of the territories of the USSR and Russian Empire. He endorsed this platform. I don't know what else to tell you.
Post by: anewaname on February 17, 2024, 06:25:28 pm
You cannot gain political power if you deviate far from the Overton window of what most common people will accept. The Russian people have been trained for centuries to have certain cultural views of sub-Russians and glorious military conquests, so Navalny would never deviate from those common Russian views in his quest to gain political power. He had to stay within the Overton window on those topics, which is why "anti-corruption" was his primary focus. I did not say Navalny was a nice guy or he wanted to be friends with Ukraine. He wanted political power and he was attempting to stir up "Russian nationalism" to fight against "Russian corruption", which is exactly how the current Ukrainian political groups took power from the groups that administered Ukraine 20 years ago.
The two differences between Ukraine's current politicians and those from 20 years ago are that the new ones commit fewer political murders and have fewer family/business ties to Russia. If you compared your perception of how corrupt Ukrainian politicians are today, to your perception of the corruption from 20 years ago, about what is the ratio? These new politicians included "anti-corruption" in their political platform, but do you really think they reduced corruption significantly? Maybe there is 20% less corruption and fewer political murders of commoners?
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 18, 2024, 02:30:31 am
I don't know what else to tell you.This discussion:
- Navalny dead
- Ackshually Navalny bad
- Navalny shades of grey
- No, Navalny bad. I don't know what else to tell you.
You made a strong claim: that he was never against the war. There's a clear counterexample to this in his discussion with Girkin, where he explicitly says otherwise. So, like, at least from this angle he'd be an improvement, eh?
Then there was some hedging of bets, arguing that never mind the guy, his party is shit. Which is moving the goal posts. And besides, we all know in Russian centralised presidential system the political platform controls the president, right?*
Your other argument is that as president he'd fix Russia before doing pretty much exactly the same thing Putin does, only with more oomph and less self-exploding. Which 1. is a hypothetical 2. seems somewhat unlikely given what he actually said about the war 3. in worst case could take years to accomplish, given how broken Russia is, upending the ruling system in the process, so that twenty years down the line the whole imperial expansion ideology could just not be on the cards anymore. But hey, maybe he'd just build more ammo factories, who's to say.
I know he wasn't a saintly edifice of sparkling sugary western values. No shit, man. Anyone who ever spends more than a moment skimming the headlines gets that, despite your tiny bit arrogant protestations to having a unique insight into his character. And yet, he was the closest Russia had to taking a step in a different direction than where it's been headed.
So I'm going to take my imaginary hat off over the killing of this deeply flawed man, thank you very much.
*the joke is it's actually the FSB, and any discussion of what would a particular person's qualities and professed ideas result in should they be elected is moot.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 18, 2024, 03:01:24 am
You made a strong claim: that he was never against the war. There's a clear counterexample to this in his discussion with Girkin, where he explicitly says otherwise.Okay, so, you're just misunderstanding my claim. I said he was never '"against the war" in and of itself'. As in, he may have opposed going to war in favor of domestic issues in the context of what he perceived to be a broken Russia, but it isn't for Ukraine's sake, he was absolutely not at any point opposed to Russian imperial ambition as a concept, but a matter of priorities. Opposing the war in practice for domestic reasons is not being against it in and of itself.
This isn't an argument about whether he's good or bad or shades of grey or shades of unicorn pink, I'm just saying that you've misinterpreted his position about the war to be "against" when he is only saying "we can't do this right now".
You're also being stupid if you think I said "never mind the guy, his party is shit". He WROTE that platform and endorsed it. I am adducing it as evidence of his beliefs, not as a distraction.
"What he said about the war" was literally a propaganda effort to appeal to westerners, such as you, and Russian dissidents in order to improve his party's standing both globally and among the anti-war youth demographic at home.
I'm not trying to convince you he isn't a sparkly edifice or that you shouldn't doff your fake hat. I don't care about those things. I am literally just explaining that you have a wrong impression of his specific position on Russian imperialism. What you do with that is your own business, but you just keep repeating that he PWOMISED to be against the war in one particular statement, as if that matters. Everything else you are hallucinating in that response, that's all you.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 18, 2024, 04:39:43 am
"What he said about the war" was literally a propaganda effort to appeal to westerners, such as you, and Russian dissidents in order to improve his party's standing both globally and among the anti-war youth demographic at home.You can't know that, can you?
My position is his views evolved over the last decade+.
Yours is his earliest view are the real thing and anything after was a cynical smokescreen.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 20, 2024, 01:27:41 am
My biggest hope is to live long enough to witness war coming to Moscow be it a civil war, someone's nuke, or an invasion of brain-eating aliens
Post by: MCreeper on February 20, 2024, 01:56:32 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 20, 2024, 03:15:43 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 20, 2024, 03:46:19 am
Ten years? Honestly, it looks like instead of angrily posting on forums you could happily live out your last, because you have no concerns in the world beyond someone, somewhere waging a war.*scratches his head in confusion* This one is a weird judgment of my character
Yes ten, exactly ten. With the last two being especially... intense. Or did you want to say that If I am not in a trench somewhere I am not exactly at war? It isn't how it works.
Also, that message has like zero anger in it. I am just... so tired of this bloody bullshit. Not that I am somehow unique. After all, there are many places in the world that know no peace for far longer than a decade and had it worse than Ukraine. Even past generations of Ukrainians had it much worse (but it is ongoing, we may reach their level soon...)
Or maybe you found anger in my desire to see war in Moscow? I think you misunderstand something. I have no need to wish war in Moscow, I am sure that it is coming one way or another. Logic of history dictates (at least how I see it) that, a society like the current Russian one can't end in any other way but with a bloody war that will either transform it or destroy it. I wish to witness the beginning of it.
As for your brilliant "just relax and enjoy the rest of your life." suggestion. It is not as easy as you think. But your assumption that I "have no concerns in the world beyond someone, somewhere waging a war" is so amusingly groundless. I am enjoying what I have and a gloomy vision of the future makes you value what you still have more, not less.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 20, 2024, 05:29:05 am
https://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1759885040501006373
This crap does make me angry. It looks designed to make Ukrainians angry playing on certain elements of Ukrainian culture. It reeks of Russian-funded provocation...
Post by: Duuvian on February 20, 2024, 06:38:28 am
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on February 15 that unspecified Russian actors have started the active phase of the “Perun” information operation aimed at promoting pro-Kremlin positions in foreign media.[98] The GUR reported that Russia plans promote pro-Russian positions on the war in Ukraine through foreign journalists, media personalities, and bloggers.
EDIT: I didn't read what was in the twitter link. What I posted above is an observation in general of something I read previously in the ISW series.
Post by: martinuzz on February 20, 2024, 08:40:09 am
EDIT: X now says the suspension was an error of the automatic defense system of the platform. The account has been unsuspended.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 20, 2024, 10:58:19 am
EDIT: X now says the suspension was an error of the automatic defense system of the platform. The account has been unsuspended.And I'm the queen of Bhutan.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 20, 2024, 12:54:25 pm
Post by: nenjin on February 20, 2024, 02:54:47 pm
EDIT: X now says the suspension was an error of the automatic defense system of the platform. The account has been unsuspended.And I'm the queen of Bhutan.
Your majesty *bows*
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2024, 02:55:59 am
Seriously, if you managed to flee Russia don't ever come back.
Post by: martinuzz on February 21, 2024, 05:16:46 am
Even if you do flee Russia, get a new identity and an new life, keep looking over your shoulders.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 21, 2024, 05:46:34 am
I want to remain a nobody, so that when I leave they won't clap me.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2024, 10:03:02 am
Iran's provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said. This road-mobile missile is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 300 and 700 km
Wonderful...
Post by: heydude6 on February 21, 2024, 10:26:57 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2024, 10:58:45 am
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.
American politics are slightly more complex than that.
And Iran is not an ally of Russia, it merely profits from selling weapons. Sadly Russia has money and tech to offer.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 11:03:13 am
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 21, 2024, 11:09:18 am
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.
... wait you want the US to provide Russia with surface to surface ballistic missiles?
Post by: McTraveller on February 21, 2024, 11:17:30 am
I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
True, but the majority of American citizens are more than happy to save a one-time $100 payment today but have to spend $1000 in 10 years. Because apparently they can't see the long term cost of not preventing aggressive international behavior as being more than the short-term cost. Congress should say: look US population, it's in your best interest to stop this nonsense, because it really is going to cost us more in the future*.
The current US culture just isn't interested in stamping out injustice - or I should say, they only care about what they perceive as injustices to themselves, not to other people.
It's all very disappointing.
*The cynic in me, though, is that Congress itself just doesn't care - they don't care about long-term success and stability, just short-term profit.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.
It's all very disappointing (repeated for emphasis).
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 11:26:32 am
True, but the majority of American citizens are more than happy to save a one-time $100 payment today but have to spend $1000 in 10 years. Because apparently they can't see the long term cost of not preventing aggressive international behavior as being more than the short-term cost. Congress should say: look US population, it's in your best interest to stop this nonsense, because it really is going to cost us more in the future*.This is literally the opposite of how a democracy is supposed to work. You are describing an aristocracy, where the people in charge pursue their own interests because they think they know better. In a democracy, officials must answer to their constituents. Constituents are often short-sighted or easily swayed, a flaw of democracy that has been commented on since ancient Athens; nevertheless.
The current US culture just isn't interested in stamping out injustice - or I should say, they only care about what they perceive as injustices to themselves, not to other people.
It's all very disappointing.
*The cynic in me, though, is that Congress itself just doesn't care - they don't care about long-term success and stability, just short-term profit.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.
It's all very disappointing (repeated for emphasis).
Post by: heydude6 on February 21, 2024, 12:18:40 pm
*snip*
That may be true of direct democracy, but one of the alleged upsides of representative democracy is that the officials you elect may presumably know more about an issue than the public and thus have the desire to make better decisions. Even if the public is against them in the short-term, they’re supposed to begrudgingly accept that their guy knows what he’s doing.
You may have found this idea hopelessly naive, but that is how the system is “supposed” to work. The problem though is that it relies on the public trusting that their officials really do know best, but with political polarization and a 2-party system that removes choices, the only politicians we get are corporate sponsored crooks who can be trusted as far as their brittle bones can carry them. Democratic leaders need to be viewed as legitimate in order to function, and the fact that we don’t have that is a serious concern.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 21, 2024, 12:19:14 pm
This is literally the opposite of how a democracy is supposed to work. You are describing an aristocracy, where the people in charge pursue their own interests because they think they know better. In a democracy, officials must answer to their constituents. Constituents are often short-sighted or easily swayed, a flaw of democracy that has been commented on since ancient Athens; nevertheless.The representatives answer to their constituents come next election. During the term they're expected to make decisions on their own, to the best of their ability and understanding of how to further the interests of the people they represent. They can explain their choices later, as they campaign for reelection.
You can't govern a modern country with direct democracy.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.At the beginning of this month the financial aid for the next four years was approved by the EU. So at least in this respect we're ahead.
On the other hand, the 50 billion euro of aid barely covers 1.5 years of what Ukraine needs to stay afloat. With US stalling and possibly withdrawing, it won't be nearly enough. And the military aid is still being negotiated, where I can't imagine it ending up anything close to what's needed. Likely more contracts for deliveries in 2027+ and such, while there's no ammo on the front right now.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2024, 12:53:25 pm
This is the problem, IMO. Unwillingness or inability to hit Russia with harmful hostile actions. Throwing money and military hardware at Ukraine won't be sufficient. Even with massive Western help, we will run out of manpower and\or political stability long before Russia will.
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 01:20:43 pm
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.
American politics are slightly more complex than that.
And Iran is not an ally of Russia, it merely profits from selling weapons. Sadly Russia has money and tech to offer.
Yes they are. Iran is absolutely, one hundred percent, an ally of Russia. They're aligned politically, economically, and they exchange defensive goods.
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 01:26:06 pm
I'm also noting that you didn't chime in with opposing Trumplicans, who are super-allied with Russia.
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 01:27:55 pm
True, but the majority of American citizens are more than happy to save a one-time $100 payment today but have to spend $1000 in 10 years. Because apparently they can't see the long term cost of not preventing aggressive international behavior as being more than the short-term cost. Congress should say: look US population, it's in your best interest to stop this nonsense, because it really is going to cost us more in the future*.This is literally the opposite of how a democracy is supposed to work. You are describing an aristocracy, where the people in charge pursue their own interests because they think they know better. In a democracy, officials must answer to their constituents. Constituents are often short-sighted or easily swayed, a flaw of democracy that has been commented on since ancient Athens; nevertheless.
The current US culture just isn't interested in stamping out injustice - or I should say, they only care about what they perceive as injustices to themselves, not to other people.
It's all very disappointing.
*The cynic in me, though, is that Congress itself just doesn't care - they don't care about long-term success and stability, just short-term profit.
That said - what's the rest of Europe doing? I don't get the impression (which could be wrong, of course) that the EU is actually trying to stop Russia either, or give Ukraine what it needs to actually stop Russia.
It's all very disappointing (repeated for emphasis).
"Look, we need to support the murderous autocracy that is attempting to lie and murder their way to victory."
"Why?"
"Well, because the local aristocracy (wealthy republicans) says we're supposed to support them!"
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 01:30:11 pm
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 01:39:57 pm
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.
Mmm hmm.
That's a lot of words to avoid saying "Look, Trump supports stealing hundreds of thousands of children. Why do you oppose that?"
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 21, 2024, 02:00:20 pm
Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
[citation needed]
Every reputable poll I can find has "US aid (before the gridlock) is where it should be" and "the US should be sending more aid" outperform "the US is doing too much" be a supermajority. The "most Americans want to cut aid" narrative is being spread by eliminating one of the first two options (each about 30%), then declaring that the last one (about 40%) is the clear winner.
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 02:03:39 pm
Goal is, as always, to support autocrats. If you can drain support by telling both lies to different people, you 'win'.
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2024, 02:16:47 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 03:52:34 pm
I said "against sending more aid to Ukraine", meaning, think we have sent enough aid to Ukraine, total, cumulatively, not worded as "we are sending the right amount of money to Ukraine and should continue sending it at the same rate", but explicitly worded as "the US has done enough for Ukraine", which polls at about 55% nationally.Iran do what America don't. Fuck Trump's republicans.I'm not sure what you want Congress to do here. According to polls, the majority of American citizens are against sending more aid to Ukraine and have been for months. Those who still support it can and should donate personally, but it wouldn't be right for Congress to make that decision as it stands.
[citation needed]
Every reputable poll I can find has "US aid (before the gridlock) is where it should be" and "the US should be sending more aid" outperform "the US is doing too much" be a supermajority. The "most Americans want to cut aid" narrative is being spread by eliminating one of the first two options (each about 30%), then declaring that the last one (about 40%) is the clear winner.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2024, 03:57:52 pm
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/08/about-half-of-republicans-now-say-the-us-is-providing-too-much-aid-to-ukraine/
I think this one is the basis of your claim but it doesn't have the question worded as you claim.
Post by: The_Explorer on February 21, 2024, 04:00:40 pm
What russia does in ukraine, effects europe, which ultimately effects the US
What happens in one part of the world (even china's terrible collapsing economy has a huge effect) effects all other parts of the world. Since its the modern age and everything is pretty much connected.
People SHOULD care more about what is happening in ukraine, but they don't see how it all connects.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 04:18:09 pm
Again, citation is needed.If you meant me, no, I hadn't even seen that one, but it also supports my point.
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/12/08/about-half-of-republicans-now-say-the-us-is-providing-too-much-aid-to-ukraine/
I think this one is the basis of your claim but it doesn't have the question worded as you claim.
There are lots of polls (https://news.gallup.com/poll/513680/american-views-ukraine-war-charts.aspx), but I specifically pulled the 55% number from a CNN poll (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/23897329-cnn-ukraine-poll) that found that 55% of Americans opposed Congress allocating any more money to Ukraine around the middle of last year. Of course every poll gives different numbers, but the unfortunate fact is that the general tenor, including the one you mentioned, clearly shows that slight majorities of Americans are tired of the war and don't want to do any more, while, of course, the current opposition party mostly opposes what the current administration has done at all and say it should have done less.
ETA: And by the way, yes, when Republicans in particular oppose funding to Ukraine at much higher levels, that does mean that Republicans in Congress, representing majority Republican constituents, should especially act to prevent it, even if they were a minority overall - because their job is to represent their own voters, not you.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2024, 05:06:56 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 21, 2024, 05:09:42 pm
Congress should pass aid to Ukraine, and Americans should want to have Congress pass aid to Ukraine. When has campaigning for the government to do something ever become illegitimate because the majority currently may or may not disagree? If the majority of Americans wanted to reinstate segregation would you be in here pontificating about how it should go ahead and happen?
Of course, you just might, considering you seemingly need to be contrarian to avoid your ballsack shriveling up and dying.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 05:16:51 pm
"Of course every poll has different numbers, but also my poll is the only one that matters."Uh, that's not what I said, I said "every poll has different numbers but they're all basically in the same direction, and I cited more than one."
Quote
Congress should pass aid to Ukraine, and Americans should want to have Congress pass aid to Ukraine. When has campaigning for the government to do something ever become illegitimate because the majority currently may or may not disagree? If the majority of Americans wanted to reinstate segregation would you be in here pontificating about how it should go ahead and happen?No, and I didn't say it was "illegitimate" to want the government to do something, either. In that specific case, Congress couldn't do that anyway because it would be unconstitutional, but if there was enough of a supermajority in favor of segregation to amend the Constitution, and the Constitutional process to do so was initiated, I would be saying that you shouldn't be surprised, and for those of us who dislike segregation to sit around and complain about how the politicians are bad and wrong for doing what their constituents elected them for instead of doing something about it (whether leaving, organizing an opposition, or campaigning for secession in anti-segregation states or areas) would be stupid.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 21, 2024, 06:14:30 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 06:28:04 pm
Strongpoint's poll shows 47:31 "not enough/about right" to "too much" support to Ukraine, so no, not all polls point in the same direction.I disagree with that framing because, as I said, saying that the level is "about right" is NOT saying that there should be more. I specifically said that polls show people feel there should not be more.
Post by: Starver on February 21, 2024, 06:35:04 pm
UK sanctioned... the staff of the prison in which Navalny was murdered. *hysterical laughter*.To be honest, it's hard to work out what proportional direct hostile action the UK could get away with, against Russia. This may only be nominally performative[1], and I agree that it's laughable, but it's arguably better than doing absolute zip.
This is the problem, IMO. Unwillingness or inability to hit Russia with harmful hostile actions. Throwing money and military hardware at Ukraine won't be sufficient. Even with massive Western help, we will run out of manpower and\or political stability long before Russia will.
(And, of course, there's already plenty of other things being done/considered in indirect manner, that we know of, as you point out. Nothing directly linked to Navalny's death, but you naturally wouldn't even expect the wheels-within-wheels set in motion by that to become visible this soon. Perhaps not for a long time, if ever.)
And, TBH, if I heard that these named individuals had somehow died of accidents, I'd not even be sure if it was due to foreign actions (from .ue, .uk, .us or wherever) or as internalised retribution handed down by Putin for allowing a medical incident to remove this valuable trapped piece from play, when he might easily have been planned to have been reserved for some hypothetical future exchange. Putin's a chessmaster[2], and the timing of this event doesn't really seem to help him. If it does, then it's part of an even deeper plan[3] that means all bets are off as to whether anything 'we' do can help or hinder the whole situation.
Considering it objectively (apart from the tragic personal nature of this whole thing, to those involved), I find I really can't get excited about an effectively muted opposer of Putin now being terminally mute. The potential knock-on effects into other theatres of direct/indirect conflict are more important. And everyone's hidden background decisions (because of, or regardless of, this event) will count much more than the currently public decisions.
[1] Hard to see what discomforts can be extended to people in Siberia. I mean, even if they're the ones in charge of a prison in deepest Siberia, they probably aren't exactly world-trotting oligarchists casually transfering indirectly-converted rubles into British banks, buying from Harrods, etc... Because why would they be doing that and (with all due apologies to those who live there) happily be posted in deepest Siberia..?
[2] Or tries to be, though clearly fallible.
[3] Provoking the West to make such responses as we see/hope for?
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 21, 2024, 08:11:07 pm
(And hey, Siberia isn't bad at all!)
Post by: Frumple on February 21, 2024, 08:26:46 pm
(And hey, Siberia isn't bad at all!)One of the places in the world that's memetically terrible to the point it's known across the globe and multigenerationally as somewhere-you-don't-want-to-live isn't bad at all, huh. Old dumping ground of the USSR. A place with a population density roughly equivalent to Montana (which sucks significantly due to there not being anyone there).
*holds up sign saying "blink twice if you need help"*
No one not being coerced would say that with any seriousness, heh. It's like saying afghanistan's a nice place for a summer vacation :P
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 21, 2024, 08:33:50 pm
In fact, I'd probably like living there if it wasn't, you know, Russia.
I bet the cost of living's real cheap.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 21, 2024, 09:04:59 pm
Westerners really exaggerate how shitty it is, really.(And hey, Siberia isn't bad at all!)One of the places in the world that's memetically terrible to the point it's known across the globe and multigenerationally as somewhere-you-don't-want-to-live isn't bad at all, huh. Old dumping ground of the USSR. A place with a population density roughly equivalent to Montana (which sucks significantly due to there not being anyone there).
*holds up sign saying "blink twice if you need help"*
No one not being coerced would say that with any seriousness, heh. It's like saying afghanistan's a nice place for a summer vacation :P
I live in a decently-sized city. For privacy reasons not gonna say it but it's larger than most US cities. The population density doesn't matter when there are still urban centers with services and industry.
The taiga, which is what people tend to think of when they think of Siberia, yeah I wouldn't wish that on anyone.
And yes the cost of life is fairly cheap, cheaper than European Russia at least. Honestly I never felt a push to move to the European part of the country: when I move I'm leaving the country altogether. It's, from what I can tell, just not actually that big of a quality-of-life upgrade.
But sure, all memes are true. Bet you think there are bears walking around on the street too.
Post by: martinuzz on February 21, 2024, 10:57:55 pm
His message gave rise to severe critisism by high ranking Russian propagandists, who accused the blogger, who has more than 100000 followers, of slander.
Today, several sources reported that Morozov is dead. According to his lawyer, Maxim Pashkov, he shot himself. He says the reason for his death is can be found in the many Telegram messages he left prior to his death, accusing his superiours of forcing him to remove messages about high casualties, and accusing generals of sacrificing thousands of soldiers just so they can be decorated and promoted.
Post by: Bumber on February 21, 2024, 11:06:52 pm
Currently, as I see it, Biden is For Ukraine, and Trump is Against Ukraine.
Biden is pro-war and Trump is anti-war.
Trump has said he'd end the war in a day (doubtful.) He hasn't stated what the terms for peace would be, but there's no way Ukraine would accept Russia gaining territory. It's possible Russia wouldn't end up paying war damages or facing justice, but there's still a deterrent if they lost so much for nothing.
Letting Ukraine bleed so that Russia can bleed isn't entirely pro-Ukraine.
Mmm hmm.
That's a lot of words to avoid saying "Look, Trump supports stealing hundreds of thousands of children. Why do you oppose that?"
Put down the crack pipe, please.
Post by: Starver on February 21, 2024, 11:40:38 pm
I have friends who like living in Montana, so I'd believe someone could like living in Siberia.(2nd) Captain Vasili Borodin of Red October stated that he wanted to retire to Montana. (Not possible (https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/Retirony), in the film. My book's elsewhere, so can't check if he also said it in that, though I think (from memory) that at he would at least get the opportunity to do so, at the expense of another.)
In fact, I'd probably like living there if it wasn't, you know, Russia.
I bet the cost of living's real cheap.
Not sure where he is supposed to be from (if Lithuanians sound Scottish, then where in the USSR sounds like an Irish-born-kiwi-actually-trying-a-soviet-accent?).
Really, I'm sure Kharp is a nice place, outwith the prison. And nearby Salekhard, which is at least partly not north of the Arctic Circle, and only has problems from defrosting anthrax-corpses during hot years. ;) Horses for courses, of course. (Or reindeer!)
Post by: Devastator on February 22, 2024, 12:53:24 am
Put down the crack pipe, please.
Mmm hmm.
Wanna tell me what this is, right here?
Spoiler: Captured "Shrimp" (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: The Answer (click to show/hide)
Post by: Devastator on February 22, 2024, 12:54:40 am
Russian nationalist war blogger Andrej Morozov has apparently comitted suicide after being forced to remove a post on Telegram about the high Russian death toll for the 5 month battle to occupy Avdiivka (he stated 16000 Russian soldiers were killed and 300 armoured vehicles were lost.
His message gave rise to severe critisism by high ranking Russian propagandists, who accused the blogger, who has more than 100000 followers, of slander.
Today, several sources reported that Morozov is dead. According to his lawyer, Maxim Pashkov, he shot himself. He says the reason for his death is can be found in the many Telegram messages he left prior to his death, accusing his superiours of forcing him to remove messages about high casualties, and accusing generals of sacrificing thousands of soldiers just so they can be decorated and promoted.
Good to see those FSO guys are getting a workout after fleeing Ukraine.
Post by: StrawBarrel on February 22, 2024, 02:16:08 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 22, 2024, 02:59:17 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 22, 2024, 04:14:02 am
When news devolve to some minor Russian war criminal committing or "committing" suicide, we can say that it became stale. I myself don't register death of ~100 Russians killed in one strike as something worth of reporting, it is routine that can't produce meaningful discussion. Same goes for civilian casualties... they still damn hurt but talking about them seems so, so pointless.
Also, two-year anniversary of the large-scale war is coming. It means that my feeds in social networks will be full not only of "my brother\friend\son died" and "on this day a year ago" but also "on this day two years ago". Exactly what I need for my mental health((
Post by: StrawBarrel on February 22, 2024, 05:04:23 am
Post by: Devastator on February 22, 2024, 11:38:20 am
My reverse image searching tells me that the Shrimp is an ASM Val. Very interesting, I haven't heard of this gun before. Thank you for sharing this photo.
(Rarer weapon than a Val. The extra siderails makes it a SR-3MP, hence 'Shrimp.' Like anything decent made in Russia, they can't make hardly any of them. And, as you'd expect it, these are reserved for basically his bodyguard and murder units. They do look almost like Vals, though, so calling it one isn't far off.)
(..That particular one was captured, and as I mentioned, you don't see these units fighting in Ukraine anymore. They buggered off to leave the dying to the serfs.)
Post by: martinuzz on February 22, 2024, 11:45:50 am
Post by: McTraveller on February 22, 2024, 12:03:16 pm
I can't wrap my head around this.
Post by: heydude6 on February 22, 2024, 12:36:10 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 22, 2024, 01:28:46 pm
So do the police or whoever makes these arrests actually believe they are doing the right thing, or are they just given heaps of cash, or are they also afraid what might happen if they don't make the arrests, or do they just like making people suffer?
I can't wrap my head around this.
None of the above. They don't think. They go with the flow.
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 22, 2024, 01:55:53 pm
People who were arrested for placing flowers at memorials for Navalny have been sentenced to join the army and will be sent to Ukraine.I can't seem to find any evidence of this, can you give a source?
Post by: hector13 on February 22, 2024, 02:05:58 pm
Russian cops are corrupt, the bribes they take allow them to live an upper class lifestyle. I know this because I used to provide expensive services for one. I think they abandoned the concept of doing the right thing a long time ago.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66924404
I think part of the reason they take bribes is because they don’t get paid very much.
But sure, tar a group of people as bad because you think one you dealt with was bad.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 22, 2024, 02:56:20 pm
"Leader" of Transnistria Vadim Krasnoselsky said he is initiating the congress because of "pressure from Moldova". The oppositionist Gennady Chorba is sure that they received such an order from Moscow.
The very next day, on February 29, Putin is scheduled to deliver his address to the Russian Federal Assembly.
Hmmm. Interesting. Not that it changes anything militarily, we already have to keep forces on the border with this thing.
Post by: Bumber on February 22, 2024, 04:31:21 pm
Put down the crack pipe, please.
Mmm hmm.
Wanna tell me what this is, right here?Spoiler: Captured "Shrimp" (click to show/hide)
Looks like a broken image to me.
Based on your description, I'm wondering the relevance. Waiting to see where on the doll Trump touched you.
Post by: nenjin on February 22, 2024, 04:49:54 pm
Can't wait for you to blame Biden for your image not loading, and how images were served better under Trump.
Post by: martinuzz on February 22, 2024, 05:11:21 pm
Can't find the article I read earlier today, but instead my newspaper has written a somewhat more extensive report on it.People who were arrested for placing flowers at memorials for Navalny have been sentenced to join the army and will be sent to Ukraine.I can't seem to find any evidence of this, can you give a source?
8 people that were arrested in st. Petersburg were threatened by police that they would break their fingers if they would not sign the papers for joining the army.
According to activist group Idete Lesom (meaning 'get out of here'), people in other cities that were arrested for laying flowers received papers for joining the army as well.
Refusing to join can get you up to 2 years prison time.
It is not certain that people who join will be sent to Ukraine. Legally, draftees are not allowed to be sent to the front, but people are terrified that they will be, regardless, and once you are enlisted, you are no longer allowed to leave the country, and even have to leave your passports at the recruitment office to make sure they don't leave.
https://www.volkskrant.nl/navalny-overleden/bloemenleggers-voor-navalny-moeten-voor-straf-het-russische-leger-in~b4887e22/
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 22, 2024, 06:04:39 pm
Post by: Starver on February 22, 2024, 06:36:36 pm
Looks like a broken image to me.Nothing seems to be wrong with it, SFAICT. Seems (without opening it with a more analytical file-reader than I have immediately at hand) to be perfectly standard image-data.
Possible options:
1) Your connection glitched, your system broke the file but doesn't realise it needs to reconnect and refresh it.
2) You have somehow actively blocked the host-site (within Discord) so you can't get it.
3) Discord has blocked your IP/agent-id (hopefully accidentally/collaterally, but I could see it doing so to reject DOS-pests, overscrapers or just really annoying 'readers').
4) You've got an even less current browser than me, with a libjpeg/whatever.
Solutions range from merely doing a hard-refresh on the page, taking the URI and removing the "?ampersanded"-elements (could break it, as much as fix it, depends if the served requires the 'reference data', rather than if possibly confusing to whatever <img>-tag parser/renderer expects just .jpg-like ending) or trying elsewhere.
Though, to my eyes, it's just a gun and I don't know enough to recognise it as a specific type. Well, it's certainly not a bolt-action rifle (which I've held/wielded/slung a movie-prop version of, e.g., in an actual movie), but not much beyond that.
Post by: Great Order on February 22, 2024, 08:13:49 pm
Post by: Bumber on February 22, 2024, 08:30:41 pm
Broken for me too, might be a Firefox thing? It breaks a few random bits and bobs across the web.
Broken on both Waterfox and my iPhone's DuckDuckGo. Visiting the link directly says "This content is no longer available." I don't know that Discord is a reliable image host to begin with.
Though, to my eyes, it's just a gun and I don't know enough to recognise it as a specific type. Well, it's certainly not a bolt-action rifle (which I've held/wielded/slung a movie-prop version of, e.g., in an actual movie), but not much beyond that.
And I've still no idea what it has to do with Trump or stolen children.
Post by: Starver on February 22, 2024, 09:01:24 pm
Broken for me too, might be a Firefox thing? It breaks a few random bits and bobs across the web.
Actually opening the (visible, likely now locally cached) image in a new tab gives me This content is no longer available., so you're probably just out of luck. No idea what Discord has as a retention policy, as it's not somewhere I consciously use myself. but clearly not enough. Or just too short to have stuck around for the full two years or less since posting, vanishing between being seen by some (like me) and then not being seen by others (like you).
(Apart from being unable to new-tab it, it still exists (cached, seemingly) in the browsers that I browsed this thread in, since its appearance. Namely Firefox 122.1.0, Firefox 122.0.1 and Chrome 121.0.loadsmorsnumbers... (I don't know why I even opened it in Chrome, but it seems I did.) Can't currently check the oldest browser version that I saw it on, but that was also Firefox, less updated still. Anyway, that's not at all the problem, and I've never had real problems of any other kind with my Firefoxes anyway.)
I'm not the one who brought this discovered weaponry up, or past-presidents of disrepute, so I've really not much to say about that. Of my suggested 'tech support' answers, maybe #3 was closest to the now uncovered reason, but only if you back up a bit and squint at it in low light. ;)
Post by: Ziusudra on February 22, 2024, 09:31:49 pm
Quote from: https://piunikaweb.com/2023/10/20/discord-file-hosting-ending-this-year-what-you-need-to-know/
According to the information made available, these links, which could include images or videos, will expire after 24 hours and subsequently become inaccessible.Too many were using Discord to host stuff for use else where.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 22, 2024, 11:58:26 pm
But I understand them, it must have taken up a lot of resources to have millions of people use the CDN as a free file hosting service...
Post by: StrawBarrel on February 23, 2024, 01:29:01 am
Yeah, it's a Discord thingThanks for linking that article Ziusudra. I didn't know Discord was making those changes.Quote from: https://piunikaweb.com/2023/10/20/discord-file-hosting-ending-this-year-what-you-need-to-know/According to the information made available, these links, which could include images or videos, will expire after 24 hours and subsequently become inaccessible.Too many were using Discord to host stuff for use else where.
It loads for me.lol
Can't wait for you to blame Biden for your image not loading, and how images were served better under Trump.
Post by: King Zultan on February 23, 2024, 02:32:26 am
Also what is happening in this thread and what does Trump and Biden have to do with some random picture of a gun?
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 23, 2024, 02:44:42 am
When exactly did the war start?February 2014 is the usual cited date, being the time when Russia annexed the Crimea. The DPR and LPR formed shortly afterward.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 06, 2024, 01:18:47 pm
Post by: StrawBarrel on March 06, 2024, 05:53:26 pm
Ah gotcha. Thanks for the clarification regarding the firearm.My reverse image searching tells me that the Shrimp is an ASM Val. Very interesting, I haven't heard of this gun before. Thank you for sharing this photo.
(Rarer weapon than a Val. The extra siderails makes it a SR-3MP, hence 'Shrimp.' Like anything decent made in Russia, they can't make hardly any of them. And, as you'd expect it, these are reserved for basically his bodyguard and murder units. They do look almost like Vals, though, so calling it one isn't far off.)
(..That particular one was captured, and as I mentioned, you don't see these units fighting in Ukraine anymore. They buggered off to leave the dying to the serfs.)
Edit Ukraine Warcrime Entry March
I like this Al Jazeera article:
Two years later, Ukrainian survivor recounts Russia’s 28-day ordeal
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/2/19/photos-two-years-later-ukrainian-survivor-recounts-russias-28-day-ordeal
Photojournalism is very important.
According to this wikipedia article at least 20 people have died.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahidne,_Chernihiv_Oblast#History
It's very unfortunate that these war crimes have occurred.
Post by: Bumber on March 07, 2024, 07:44:06 pm
Quote from: https://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/backgrounders/2024/02/24/canada-announces-additional-support-ukraine
Gender-inclusive demining for sustainable futures in Ukraine
Funding: $4 million
This project from the HALO Trust aims to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of Ukrainians, including women and internally displaced persons, by addressing the threat of explosive ordnance present across vast areas of the country. Project activities include conducting non-technical surveys and subsequent manual clearance in targeted communities; providing capacity building to key national stakeholders; and establishing a gender and diversity working group to promote gender-transformative mine action in Ukraine.
Quote from: https://www.unmas.org/sites/default/files/mine_action_gender_guidelines_web.pdf
While these weapons may be indiscriminate, the specific threats and impacts vary according to gender, age and other aspects of diversity. It is essential that mine action actors are equipped to apply a gender lens as part of a comprehensive and inclusive approach to planning, implementing and monitoring programmes to ensure protection for all and to ensure that "no one is left behind."
Quote
An inclusive and gender-balanced workforce increases the efficiency and effectiveness of mine action activities and benefits the community as a whole by ensuring a more coherent response to the different needs and priorities of women, girls, boys and men affected by contamination.
Somebody please make this make sense.
Post by: nenjin on March 07, 2024, 07:52:30 pm
Basically civilians may have to clear their own backyards of unexploded ordinance (instead of trained military personnel) and someone in Canada wants to kick $4 million towards making sure someone is thinking about women and displaced persons (those whose home was destroyed by war), the things they need and the risks they particularly face. (Is a woman 2 months pregnant having to clear explosives from an area coated in all the residue from fighting going to be affected differently than a 14 year old boy, who might have their hormones fucked with from breathing in contaminated dirt from a war zone for 6 months?) Instead of just sending everyone in willy nilly and then wondering why there's an increase in birth defects for the next generation, and other health problems in the war generation.
There. I applied basic critical thinking to clearly written sentences for you.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 07, 2024, 08:36:25 pm
Quote from: U.S. embassy in Russia
The Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.
Hmmm. Interesting.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 07, 2024, 09:01:45 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 07, 2024, 09:08:58 pm
Pulling out of Ukraine could lose the Democrats the election.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 07, 2024, 09:10:26 pm
Considering how dangerous it is to be a US citizen in Russia, I am surprised the US Embassy would bother.Quote from: U.S. embassy in RussiaThe Embassy is monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and U.S. citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.
Hmmm. Interesting.
Post by: nenjin on March 07, 2024, 11:18:05 pm
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 07, 2024, 11:30:02 pm
They're probably falling victim to polling around the Presidential election. When Trump invents so many outrages, they run the risk of responding to one or the other. I don't know how support for Ukraine is currently polling. It was 66% in 2022 according to Gallup. O maybe they think Russia is finally out of gas and Ukraine isn't in danger of being overrun anymore? Maybe they know those resources are going to be required somewhere else soon....Most reporting suggests that support has collapsed. There was an argument in this thread some weeks ago, but the long and short of it is that most polls seem to agree that majorities say America has either "done enough" or "too much".
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 08, 2024, 12:48:58 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 08, 2024, 12:56:36 am
I hope Biden is smart enough to not pull out... or someone convinces him not to.We're going to have to see, but it's going to depend more on Congress. I'd say what we're seeing looks like testing the waters of public opinion, and it's possible that just putting the war back in the news may end up driving more support, even if the stories are pretty negative.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 08, 2024, 01:05:57 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 08, 2024, 02:13:17 am
Am not used to systems where the parliament actually matters, oops! 💀Understandable. The key point is that Congress has to okay the money.
And, truth be told, as I've said before, the US is not really in a position where it can safely afford to do this right now, so to some degree there is A reason why they aren't... but that doesn't stop them from spending loads of money on other things.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 08, 2024, 01:46:36 pm
Now that is over, I would expect a surge in Support for Ukraine.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 08, 2024, 02:41:05 pm
Post by: Bumber on March 08, 2024, 05:00:56 pm
They want gender studies in mine removal operations because they believe gender has a bearing on who is affected, how they're effected and whether there are protections in place that consider their specific needs.
Basically civilians may have to clear their own backyards of unexploded ordinance (instead of trained military personnel) and someone in Canada wants to kick $4 million towards making sure someone is thinking about women and displaced persons (those whose home was destroyed by war), the things they need and the risks they particularly face. (Is a woman 2 months pregnant having to clear explosives from an area coated in all the residue from fighting going to be affected differently than a 14 year old boy, who might have their hormones fucked with from breathing in contaminated dirt from a war zone for 6 months?) Instead of just sending everyone in willy nilly and then wondering why there's an increase in birth defects for the next generation, and other health problems in the war generation.
There. I applied basic critical thinking to clearly written sentences for you.
It reads more like they want to be more diverse in who they're sending to clear mines. Employment/workforce is mentioned heavily.
Send pregnant women to clear mines because diversity is our strength and improves workplace satisfaction!
Post by: nenjin on March 08, 2024, 07:54:27 pm
They want gender studies in mine removal operations because they believe gender has a bearing on who is affected, how they're effected and whether there are protections in place that consider their specific needs.
Basically civilians may have to clear their own backyards of unexploded ordinance (instead of trained military personnel) and someone in Canada wants to kick $4 million towards making sure someone is thinking about women and displaced persons (those whose home was destroyed by war), the things they need and the risks they particularly face. (Is a woman 2 months pregnant having to clear explosives from an area coated in all the residue from fighting going to be affected differently than a 14 year old boy, who might have their hormones fucked with from breathing in contaminated dirt from a war zone for 6 months?) Instead of just sending everyone in willy nilly and then wondering why there's an increase in birth defects for the next generation, and other health problems in the war generation.
There. I applied basic critical thinking to clearly written sentences for you.
It reads more like they want to be more diverse in who they're sending to clear mines. Employment/workforce is mentioned heavily.
Send pregnant women to clear mines because diversity is our strength and improves workplace satisfaction!
I think you might have it backwards. This may not even be paid work. It might essentially be government organized cleanup. So this is basically advocacy for vulnerable groups in a situation where it's all hands on deck. Or if it is paid work, then it becomes even more important that someone is paying attention to what's going on. Corruption, mismanagement, unnecessarily dangerous working conditions....
Post by: EuchreJack on March 09, 2024, 02:36:43 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 09, 2024, 01:11:39 pm
*yawns*
I love how more and more forces in the world show their impatience and irritation at Ukraine holding for so long. We are so inconvenient.
The fun part is that this war is not going to stop until Russia collapses or a large-scale genocide of Ukrainians (yes, the collapse of the Ukrainian state won't end this war. Syrians resisted for a decade without one). It may change its form, even reduce in intensity for some time but it is not going to end with "diplomacy"
Post by: EuchreJack on March 10, 2024, 05:16:13 pm
Remember, all the Peacelovers and UN Diplomats are Alien Collaborators in the game Terra Invicta (https://store.steampowered.com/app/1176470/Terra_Invicta/).
Sometimes, pacifists are useful idiots for dictators.
Post by: KittyTac on March 10, 2024, 07:09:41 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 10, 2024, 08:29:18 pm
Post by: Cathar on March 10, 2024, 08:43:09 pm
That pope was acceptable until now, but now he goes straight to the trash bin.
Edit : an ukrainian youtuber made a video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kioZ_xvwyOM) explaining Marichka, a big and growing ukrainian patriotic meme drawn by artists for two years now. Some of my art appear in the video and I'm extremely proud of it. It's in ukrainian but english subs are available.
Post by: anewaname on March 10, 2024, 08:49:17 pm
Maybe you shouldn't fight back when someone tries to use verbal and physical threats to coerce you into letting them rape you.
Maybe you shouldn't fight back when someone decides to tax you every week for some of your food money.
Maybe you shouldn't fight back when someone says that they need some work done and they want you to wear a collar while you do it for them.
I understand people who submit because their family is directly being threatened, but if you don't fight back, the coercion will not stop and the choke collar will only get tighter.
Post by: Cathar on March 10, 2024, 09:04:40 pm
I've been slow to understand the situation, but now what is going on is pretty clear for everyone to see, and I really hope we react decisively before Hitler finishes eating Poland this time.
Post by: martinuzz on March 10, 2024, 09:10:57 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 10, 2024, 09:14:24 pm
Post by: Cathar on March 10, 2024, 09:15:34 pm
The catholic church should be declared a terrorist organisation for this nazi statement.They tried to hide it by removing Ratzinger but we're onto them
Post by: EuchreJack on March 10, 2024, 09:22:18 pm
https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2024/03/10/pope-francis-ukraine-white-flag-negotiate-247471#:~:text=Since%20some%20have%20misinterpreted%20the,Ukraine%2C%20and%20believes%20it%20is (https://www.americamagazine.org/faith/2024/03/10/pope-francis-ukraine-white-flag-negotiate-247471#:~:text=Since%20some%20have%20misinterpreted%20the,Ukraine%2C%20and%20believes%20it%20is)
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 10, 2024, 09:22:52 pm
Post by: Frumple on March 10, 2024, 09:49:04 pm
... I'm actually not sure which broad religious grouping's really covered themselves in glory in regards to ukraine, tbh. Divisive at best when it really, really shouldn't be.
Catholicism's (both by way of the pope and more general authoritarian sympathies, blech) dropped the ball, protestantism's fractured as hell and too aligned with authoritarian horsecrap to have a good general position on the invasion, most other varieties of christian that aren't directly involved are distant enough they don't seem to care too much, judaism (by way of israel directly and reactions to it among the diaspora indirectly) basically shit the bed so hard it's drawn support away from the ukraine conflict... most muslim stuff has their own problems (and what don't are probably more likely to be sympathetic to russia than ukraine), and if anything outside the abrahamic trio has really thrown support behind ukraine (or russia, for that matter) I haven't noticed.
Haven't exactly been paying attention to the organized (or disorganized, for that matter) religious sentiment, though, especially considering how shit it is stateside... entirely possible I've missed something major.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 10, 2024, 10:45:21 pm
laughs in Protestantism
Because protestant churches, especially American ones, are so consistently anti-authoritarian nowadays....
_________________
Speaking about some American protestants, or rather about the guy they love more than Christ.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who met with US presidential candidate Donald Trump on 8 March, has claimed that Trump has "quite detailed plans" to end the war in Ukraine and will not be giving "a single penny" to fight Russian aggression in Ukraine.
Quote: "He has a very clear vision that is hard to disagree with. He says the following: first, he will not give a single penny for the Russo-Ukrainian war. That's why the war will end, because it's obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own two feet. If the Americans don't give money and weapons along with the Europeans, the war will end. And if the Americans don't give money, then the Europeans won't be able to fund this war alone. And then the war will end."
Heh, will end. Sure! 2025 may be very... fun.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 10, 2024, 11:29:54 pm
I don't really like being lumped with them. This isn't a TDM, this is a FFA at this point.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who met with US presidential candidate Donald Trump on 8 March, has claimed that Trump has "quite detailed plans" to end the war in Ukraine and will not be giving "a single penny" to fight Russian aggression in Ukraine.OK, Trump may have just blundered away a sizable chunk of his voter base. Namely, the Cold-War-mindset "we need to stick it to the Russians" 'Murica-Fuck-Yeah Republicans.
Quote: "He has a very clear vision that is hard to disagree with. He says the following: first, he will not give a single penny for the Russo-Ukrainian war. That's why the war will end, because it's obvious that Ukraine cannot stand on its own two feet. If the Americans don't give money and weapons along with the Europeans, the war will end. And if the Americans don't give money, then the Europeans won't be able to fund this war alone. And then the war will end."
Post by: hector13 on March 10, 2024, 11:36:34 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 10, 2024, 11:43:35 pm
The Dem leadership needs to exploit this tho.
Post by: Eric Blank on March 11, 2024, 02:19:28 am
We have to message all our representatives and threaten to switch parties if they don't support Ukraine
Post by: Strongpoint on March 11, 2024, 04:05:30 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 11, 2024, 05:45:11 am
Post by: Frumple on March 11, 2024, 05:54:18 am
But is it all of them?Among his voter base? The GOP politicians? Basically, yeah. Unfortunately. It's not a deal breaker for just about anyone willing to support trump at this point. Maybe (hopefully) it'll help keep everyone not that away, but... who knows. Foreign policy in general doesn't tend to be great at influencing stateside voting patterns, and our media's jammed so far up the horse races's ass it can be difficult for folks to actually notice there's a difference between party policies on stuff like that :-\
Sadly it's entirely possible the democrats will try to withdraw support too, no matter how much public support Ukraine has.Yeah, the problem's basically that if you care about ukraine getting aid, it's the dems or nothing. GOP wants to cut aid entirely, and the rest of the parties aren't relevant. Switch parties to who? You got one choice if you want aid to continue, and if you threaten to switch parties from them on that particular issue you're mostly going to come off looking either dumb or swallowing GOP propaganda than anything approaching sense, blech.
We have to message all our representatives and threaten to switch parties if they don't support Ukraine
So far, the dems in congress have been pretty insistent on trying to get aid through, but without actual control that only goes so far and they'll bend on the issue if it means getting other things done. It's the opposite of ideal, ha.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 11, 2024, 10:12:58 pm
Sadly it's entirely possible the democrats will try to withdraw support too, no matter how much public support Ukraine has.Not until after the 2024 Election. President Biden came out hard in favor of Ukraine. Democrats are [insert insult here], but they know how to win elections.
We have to message all our representatives and threaten to switch parties if they don't support Ukraine
As for Republicans, the moderates are fully behind Ukraine. Most telling, the House Speaker was anti-Ukraine up to the first second he was given the Top Secret Intelligence Briefings that come with the job, then turned 100% in favor of Ukraine. It's really just the radical fringe outsider Republicans that are anti-Ukraine. And the moderates hate them.
If anyone gives, it's enough Republicans being satisfied with Democrat compromises to push Aid to Ukraine through. It's been how ALL the Government Funding packages have gone.
The Radical Right has overplayed their hand: Everyone in Washington knows they're never gonna vote YES on anything, so they're getting ignored.
As for religions: I think the Wiccans are solidly Pro-Ukraine.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 12, 2024, 01:10:40 am
Post by: King Zultan on March 12, 2024, 01:47:52 am
So yeah, The Vatican is now walking back the Pope's comments.I've noticed that this seems to be happening more often, which just goes to show that papal infallibility is a bunch of crap.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 12, 2024, 02:00:01 am
Post by: Starver on March 12, 2024, 09:58:11 am
I've noticed that this seems to be happening more often, which just goes to show that papal infallibility is a bunch of crap.insert "Papal Bull" joke...
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2024, 06:11:31 am
Source (https://t.me/legionoffreedom/1129) (in Russian)
*popcorn chewing sounds*
No, I don't expect anything major from the ongoing raid. And no I don't want to see civilian deaths. But I am dying to see some light panic.
Post by: anewaname on March 13, 2024, 08:59:51 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 13, 2024, 12:42:55 pm
Reducing one refinery to semirefined mazut forevermore isn't a killing blow, but it is going to hurt badly.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 13, 2024, 02:13:55 pm
Looking like Ukrainian drone strikes have hit the catalytic cracking tower at a major Russian refinery. Russia (and the Soviet Union before them) has never had the ability to produce such equipment, I'm 90% sure China doesn't either, and it is specialized enough that it is very difficult to smuggle. That makes it effectively irreplacable, and you need that kind of equipment to make gasoline out of the sludge that makes up the bulk of most Russian oil (to the point that in peacetime it was routine to export their oil to the US and import light sweet crude for their own refineries) with any volume.
Reducing one refinery to semirefined mazut forevermore isn't a killing blow, but it is going to hurt badly.
Relevant Bloomberg article (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-13/russia-s-ryazan-refinery-is-on-fire-after-drone-attack-tass-says)
We have a small campaign against Russia's oil industry. Sadly, Russia manages to shoot down most of our drones but it also makes them spend resources. SAMs aren't exactly cheap. We are also using those strikes to learn which of a myriad of small series drones should receive more funding.
Spoiler: it is quite a zoo (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on March 13, 2024, 04:35:52 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 13, 2024, 10:25:04 pm
Don't worry Ukraine: You will probably get a few million dollars out of it, probably.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 14, 2024, 01:02:26 am
I note the US Navy is going to spend $1 Billion dollars to build the exact same naval drones that Ukraine designed with crowdfunding.Hm, source? My Google skills failed me.
Don't worry Ukraine: You will probably get a few million dollars out of it, probably.
But I am absolutely fine with it. I am not even sure that it is entirely our design without some hints from foreign specialists.
I hope that all secret information about them won't appear on a War Thunder discord...
Post by: King Zultan on March 14, 2024, 01:21:37 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 14, 2024, 02:57:00 am
Not only it is apparent that they have a large budget but it is so pushed that I am sure that Twitter itself helps them.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 14, 2024, 06:14:26 am
The Ukrainian-speaking segment of Twitter has become a cesspool of Russian propaganda that tries to undermine Ukrainian political stability really hard. In my more than 10 years on it, I have never seen anything like that, not during Maidan, not at the beginning of the full-scale invasion.Elon is openly pro-Russian iirc.
Not only it is apparent that they have a large budget but it is so pushed that I am sure that Twitter itself helps them.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 14, 2024, 12:50:27 pm
It took me some time to understand why my brain reacts in this way - intact houses and trees. I got used that villages in a war zone have no houses, only vague outlines of them.
____________
And yeah, advance into Russia is continuing. With each hour it looks less like a raid and more like an attempt to create a buffer zone. Siberian battalion gave residents of local villages time until tomorrow morning before they'll start an assault.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 15, 2024, 08:32:08 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on March 16, 2024, 12:35:58 am
___________
I like the new reality of a random Russian oil refinery going boom nearly every morning.
Post by: King Zultan on March 16, 2024, 12:59:14 am
Also how many oil refineries have been hit?
Post by: Strongpoint on March 16, 2024, 01:44:01 am
Also how many oil refineries have been hit?
Since the start of the campaign? 10+ but results are varied - some sustained minimal damage, some are likely out of operation for weeks\months.
https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1768885434237460611 - This Twitter user posts the map each time there is a new hit. Note that this map doesn't show all Russian refineries only the largest ones (yellow) or ones that were hit.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 17, 2024, 07:23:58 am
Also Russian opposition: Everyone, come to the elections and vote for anyone but Putin!
Post by: Starver on March 17, 2024, 08:13:06 am
The first is a message to beyond the borders. In reality, pragmatic, and/or realistic conclusions will have already been mostly decided upon, according to what works locally and bloc-wise for those in power, whether pro-Putinist Russia or anti-... But there may be still some private hedging of bets at the fringes...
The second is trying to get a message to Putin, and the house of cards he has 'built'. If they can pull a few of the staples out, rip off a bit of the sneaky sellotape, etc, then it shows up the rest of the structure. Yes, giving him Kim Jong Un levels of voter-support (all but an unprecedentedly high 0.13% of voters supporting him!) also ridicules the process to the outside world. But I've never been a fan of the "don't take part in these elections if you don't like how they're run" approach[1] that some regimes' oppositions go for. Putin's undoubtedly winning anyway, by hook or by crook (or even just by Vetinari Job Security), but every vote against erodes the internal credibility that little bit more. A lack-of-votes-for only really adds to a feeling of apathy.
Perhaps. Going by what I know of traditional roots in the Soviet-era psychology factors, and the post-Soviet ones, etc. (Which might be less than you actually know, from an actual former-Soviet state, I'll admit.. ;) )
[1] Tricky, though. Is it easier to ballot-stuff to bulk up all the 'missing' votes or to just tactically miscount the 'wrongly voted' ones, if that's what you're worried about and have free reign to do whatever you want..?
Post by: Starver on March 17, 2024, 08:23:49 am
Post by: scriver on March 18, 2024, 06:56:14 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 18, 2024, 07:18:19 am
Showing an increasingly totalitarian government that you are one of those who dislike it is counterproductive. Times for open protests and playing election games are over in Russia. Options are - 1) fleeing 2) surviving 3) silent sabotage 4) armed resistance.
______________
Speaking about armed resistance. It is so bizarre that international media gives around zero Fs about the creeping advance of Russian armed opposition on Belgorod. Sure they took like 1,5 villages but it is fighting on Russian territory. If anything, it is a good story to exaggerate.
Post by: Starver on March 18, 2024, 10:20:42 am
(I think I'm getting decent verifiable information about that phase of things, via my own chosen outlets. It's not 24/7/"every column inch", exactly, but there are quite a lot of other news stories, so it necessarily has to be just a proportion of the bandwidth. Both metaphorically and technically.)
Post by: EuchreJack on March 18, 2024, 07:45:47 pm
I think the "everyone who don't like Putin go and vote at the exact same hour" was a smart thing. It gives lone sticks the chance to see that there are many other sticks like them and that they aren't as alone as they sometimes feel.Yes, it was a good bit of organizing that could lead to future organizing. Journey of a thousand miles single step kind of thing.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 18, 2024, 09:39:24 pm
I think the "everyone who don't like Putin go and vote at the exact same hour" was a smart thing. It gives lone sticks the chance to see that there are many other sticks like them and that they aren't as alone as they sometimes feel.Yes, it was a good bit of organizing that could lead to future organizing. Journey of a thousand miles single step kind of thing.
Common, they have been doing this kind of bullcrap "resistance" for decades. They are using the same ineffective tactics again and again while their country becomes more and more totalitarian around them.
It didn't work when Russia was less fascist, it will not work with Russia becoming more fascist.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 18, 2024, 10:36:36 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 19, 2024, 01:44:19 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 19, 2024, 02:58:48 am
I don't know what is in the full piece (and have zero desire to know) but the trailer (https://twitter.com/abcnews/status/1768062932951150857) speaks for itself.
Post by: anewaname on March 20, 2024, 08:52:20 am
That ABC trailer is probably just clickbait, to enrage or make curious.
Post by: feelotraveller on March 20, 2024, 10:00:39 am
Far as I can tell critics are making fools of themselves via gross exaggeration but nothing new there. Also it is a rescreening of an ITV documentary which was broadcast in Britain a month or so ago. Not sure what brought out the clown car now rather than then.
Anyway better to watch and make your own considered judgement rather than having someone (whether me or someone else) feeding you a canned take (propagandised or not) methinks.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 20, 2024, 10:44:10 am
The problem with "resistance" is that people need to feel that they have nothing to lose before they will throw themselves against that wall (where the wall is that social system of suppression that threatens your body and the bodies of your family).
It is not exactly true. Guys from that Russian platoon that defected at the beginning of the war and became the basis on which the Freedom of the Russia Legion had something to lose. Most of Russian nationalists who formed the Russian Volunteer Corps would be more than welcome in other far-right formations of Russia. Ordinary people from Siberia didn't really need to travel to Ukraine and join the Siberian battalion. Chechen Separatists could live in Europe in comfort. Some liberal Russians who live and work in Europe have around zero actual need to spend their money and effort gathering money for the Ukrainian army and making themselves a potential target for FSB assassinations.
I don't believe in desperation resistance. Desperation may bring riots and anarchy but for resistance you need ideals and beliefs not desire for self-preservation.
Post by: anewaname on March 20, 2024, 12:21:50 pm
Just as some defected from Russia to fight, other Russians immediately cut ties with Ukrainian family members because they had no ability to emigrate and they had something to lose (job, kids, property). That is why the "bullshit resistance" does not grow larger than the efforts of people to vote at the same time. This is why many Russians accept the news propaganda.
These Russians have an agreement with their government, "do not conscript me to fight in this war and we'll express our joy over you being our leader". This is a paraphrase of something Vlad Vexar said in a vid, and his ideas have me wondering about the effect of America's changes to conscription laws 40 years ago and how it may be related to changes in American politics during that time frame.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 21, 2024, 02:09:33 am
They may dislike that Putin and his pals are thieves, that the war is fought in an ineffective way, that the infrastructure of their city is shit, and that their salary is tiny.
But they do think that Ukraine is just traitor Russians that must be reconquered and reeducated, that The West(c) is a degenerative LGBT immoral hell, that all that fair elections aren't really necessary, etc. And they are perfectly willing to defend their way of life and even die for it in the war.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 21, 2024, 03:03:34 am
Some Russians do have this agreement but I firmly believe that a huge majority of Russians largely enjoy their country as it is, it fits their values and beliefs.All the evidence from previous western research and journalism in Russia suggests this is the case, yes.
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 21, 2024, 05:06:17 am
But yeah it's still too many Putinists to make resistance be able to overthrow the government as it currently stands. There's a reason I have, as part of my political daydreams, fantasies of launching a "Deputinization" campaign that purges the government and censors the media of that filth. Realistic? No, I don't think so. Cathartic? Yes.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 21, 2024, 05:55:33 am
And anti-Putin resistance is a dream,
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 21, 2024, 06:03:53 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 21, 2024, 06:18:45 am
Post by: EuchreJack on March 22, 2024, 04:01:54 am
It's actually quite hard to fight propaganda and value signaling. Most of the folks aren't too bad, they just want to believe in something that gives them comfort and does not question their previous 60+ years of life experience.
It's also scary how popular Vivek Ramaswamy is with the younger republicans. But he's a rich shitbagger*, so you can't really trust any statistics regarding his popularity, since he's perfectly capable of skewing them in his favor.
*I just added "shitbagger" to my dictionary. I use this word enough, and plan to use it more in the future.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 22, 2024, 05:23:52 am
The reason - this could lead to an increase in oil prices worldwide, according to sources cited by the Financial Times.
According to one official, the White House is increasingly disappointed by the "brazen attacks" of Ukrainian drones on Russian oil facilities.
Mwuhahahahaha.
I read this as - You can't wage an effective war against your genocidal enemies because gas prices may stop Biden from winning elections.
Meanwhile, ~100 attacked our energy infrastructure this morning. Hello rolling blackouts... I got used to life without you.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 22, 2024, 07:58:09 am
... actually a good bit of reporting on your part, Strongpoint.
As it turns out, Japan can still import Russian oil.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/japan-can-keep-importing-russian-oil-above-price-cap-through-june-2024-u-s-says-be03e4a7 (https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/japan-can-keep-importing-russian-oil-above-price-cap-through-june-2024-u-s-says-be03e4a7)
The Japanese do not believe in losing money, unfortunately.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 22, 2024, 08:47:57 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 22, 2024, 12:31:01 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on March 22, 2024, 01:04:46 pm
Your bets
1) FSB's false flag
2) PTSD heroes of SVO having fun
3) Islamists\North Caucasus separatists
4) Some new anti-Putin Russian resistance with the type of ideology that allows such nasty stuff.
5) Some desperate and sick (and stupid) Ukrainian radicals who decided to bring some war to Moscow
6) Other
Post by: Egan_BW on March 22, 2024, 01:09:46 pm
Post by: Cathar on March 22, 2024, 01:29:01 pm
Edit : My bet :
Popular resistance is totally out. False flag doesn't make sense. imho radical separatists got their almonds activated after peskov hinted at mobilization
Edit 2 : A terrorist plot was already hinted at earlier (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-warns-of-extremists-imminent-plans-to-attack-moscow/ar-BB1jAGfQ), with US embassy urging its citizen to leave moscow and avoid crowds. It's likely not a false flag operation, and the culprits are probably already known
Edit 3 : Reaction time from the russian forces, about one hour. The shooters escaped. The absolute state of that country.
Post by: nenjin on March 22, 2024, 02:19:02 pm
If this was America they'd have both been killed, along with several other civilians and probably someone's pets.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 22, 2024, 02:27:07 pm
Post by: Cathar on March 22, 2024, 02:30:55 pm
Post by: nenjin on March 22, 2024, 03:06:13 pm
Post by: Cathar on March 22, 2024, 04:27:03 pm
Post by: Starver on March 22, 2024, 04:28:10 pm
How about the way it usually is in the US, which is that some random guy just decided to do that because fuck the world?Two 'lone wolves' going Почтовый?
(Yes, I did variations on the theme, always reverse-translating to see what it might or might not actually be. My favourite unused one was "отправляюсь по почте". ;-p)
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2024, 04:37:22 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 22, 2024, 04:51:18 pm
There's a real possibility that this is in fact a genuine terrorist attack - a false-flag would be much more likely to use bombs, and Russia has a number of groups that might be using the Ukraine war as a "hey, the military's occupied, time to start our liberation campaign" thing.
Post by: Starver on March 22, 2024, 05:10:38 pm
There's a number of reasons to attack such a venue (moralistic religious fundementalists, common street-gang violence against another street-gang's social "territory" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_drill#Culture), common-or-garden 'protection racket'/corrupt authorities that had been faced with a refusal to comply and need to send a message, ...), but I can't immediately see this having .ue hands behind it.
(Unless it is a Nationalist-inclined line-up, once we know who was supposed to be performing/what audience it might have had.)
PPE:...oh, look, ninjaed. So "moralistic fundementalists" indeed seems likely. Unless that was just an opportune claim to try to sound particularly relevent.
You'd imagine a False Flag would have inclined towards not overtly using "not our kind of people" (obviously not targeting a load of useful supporters, but not trying to avoid them completely). But I just may not have the right sort of bluff/double-bluff/triple-bluff psychology necessary in arranging such things to send the 'right' sort of message in the 'best' and most 'believable' sort of way.
But, regardless, it'll probably soon be spun in Russian media to reinforce the 'party' message, whether or not anybody even had an inkling of it about to happen (and let it do so, passively or actively).
Post by: MorleyDev on March 22, 2024, 05:23:46 pm
Which would suggest if it is a false-flag, it's an "allow it to happen" type rather than a "orchestrate it" type. If not...well, cock-up over conspiracy and all that.
Post by: Starver on March 22, 2024, 05:44:51 pm
They weren't caught up in the action, but that could just be good luck, good timing and/or efficient stage-management reacting as best they could once the situation started. I doubt there'll be good reason to believe anything more contrived, in that regard (even if it is, that'll be covered by Convenient Excuses 101, anyway).
But I'm stopping from doom-scrolling (before I actually start, apart from satisfying a little bit of morbid curiosity to answer my own questions). I can't really helpfully add much, without making it sound like I'm trying to work out where the plot of a thriller is going to go, ahead of its actual reveals... If there's more to be known, it'll become known without my 'guess the plot-twist' contributions, all while real people (and/or their relatives) find themself dealing with the aftermath
Post by: martinuzz on March 22, 2024, 06:33:14 pm
This terrorist attack on a music venue is barbaric and unforgivable.
I mean.. It could have been Kitty or one of our other Russian forumites that were killed there just because they went to a music venue.
Strikes against Russia, fine. But strike military and economical targets, not music venues.
EDIT: the same ofcourse goes the other way around. Fuck you Russians for attacking Ukrainian civilian places.
Post by: Cathar on March 22, 2024, 07:27:24 pm
Just because false flag exist and happen, doesn't mean every extraordinary events are false flags. Russia is still engaged in Syria against ISIS.
100-200 casualties is about 20% of the daily russian losses at the front. It's nothing. But since this time, it is not the poor rural siberian and far easterners, who live in shacks and shit in a outhouse who do the dying, but the sons of the white upper middle class of moscow, the class that goes to concerts, hot tears are starting to flow on the internet.
"What, you mean MY son could get killed in an event corellated to the war I voted for ? I didn't bargain for that !"
Like said Guillemin, "having people killed, that doesn't teach you to die."
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 22, 2024, 08:02:12 pm
Post by: Great Order on March 22, 2024, 08:47:10 pm
Russian interventions are way more brutal than American interventions. At least SWAT teams try to save civilians instead of, for instance, rolling tanks on them (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege)Makes a perverse kind of sense. Nobody's going to try taking hostages if it's proven repeatedly that the country doesn't care.
Post by: Cathar on March 22, 2024, 10:01:21 pm
Russian interventions are way more brutal than American interventions. At least SWAT teams try to save civilians instead of, for instance, rolling tanks on them (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beslan_school_siege)Makes a perverse kind of sense. Nobody's going to try taking hostages if it's proven repeatedly that the country doesn't care.
Not sure... you replace an opportunity for negociation with outright ultraviolence, as the terror groups adapt to your tactics.
Now they are just opening fire on the crowd and leaving in the confusion, and I'm not sure "at least they didn't take any hostage" is any consolation.
Turns ou doing away with all the norms of civil society and human rights in favor of police expedience do not produce the secure and orderly society it is meant to.
But hey you want to read something funny (https://web.archive.org/web/20240319131841/https://tass.ru/politika/20283597)
The Kremlin deleted their message accusing the US to "outright blackmail" them, when they warned them of an imminent terror threat.
Post by: King Zultan on March 23, 2024, 02:19:55 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 23, 2024, 02:36:09 am
And yep I believe that it is a genuine Islamist attack, it is their style.
____________________
Interesting piece of information: On March 9 (a day after the American warning) there was a concert of a Russian
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 23, 2024, 03:26:30 am
I remember how Russians were celebrating when Americans left Afghanistan and I was facepalming understanding that it means that Islamism will spread into "stans" of Central Asia and Muslim regions of Russia. This attack looks like the first visible result of that.The Taliban hates ISIS though. They're genuinely at each other's throats.
And yep I believe that it is a genuine Islamist attack, it is their style.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 23, 2024, 03:32:09 am
I remember how Russians were celebrating when Americans left Afghanistan and I was facepalming understanding that it means that Islamism will spread into "stans" of Central Asia and Muslim regions of Russia. This attack looks like the first visible result of that.The Taliban hates ISIS though. They're genuinely at each other's throats.
And yep I believe that it is a genuine Islamist attack, it is their style.
Doesn't matter. There is no American presence to counter both.
Post by: Cathar on March 23, 2024, 05:16:10 am
First time in a while that I've heard of ISIS doing something, wonder why they went after that music thing of all things.According to them, they targetted specifically a christian concert. Tho music is forbidden in the Haddith if I remember my religious classes correctly, this specific event is simply broadly religiously motivated.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 23, 2024, 05:23:25 am
Post by: Cathar on March 23, 2024, 07:41:19 am
Everyone seem to be involved, the SBU, the Mossad, the CIA. The pay of a terrorist : about $5k. So $20K total, which puts the life of a russian to about $100 each.
Post by: Starver on March 23, 2024, 08:10:52 am
So it (with its apparently 'infallible' tracking-and-identification ability) now goes and kills an unsuspecting completely unrelated guy out for a stroll (not a common activity[1], so probably not at all a big loss to the people in power[2]), thus sating the masses via this world's bread-and-circuses ideology.
((Ages since I read the book, and even longer since I saw the film of it, so not quite sure what maybe got abridged out, in this version, or changed away for the cinema. They didn't/couldn't do the 'dog' in the 1960s movie, did they? Probably something more filmable for the time.))
Anyway, due to timing alone, it struck me as a possibly apt parable here (((even before Cathar's own comment, just now)))... (Hopefully, for many, the rest of the plot isn't quite so mirroring of this modern scenario, with a hefty dose of bittersweet downer-ending.)
[1] When all 'right-minded people' (who aren't roving gangs of entitled adolescents, just as likely to kill anyone they don't like the look of) could be sitting in front of/within their wall-sized TVs watching this, the sanctioned entertainments or the news of the third(?) nuclear-armed war being on the brink.
[2] Might even have already been "on a watch list", and chose a bad time to be thinking independently? Hard to know exactly how hyper-competant the invisible regime might be, given their various apparent errors in dealing with the protagonist's under-the-heel/face-turn...
Post by: Strongpoint on March 23, 2024, 11:28:28 am
If someone would give me a choice between being captured by ISIS with them knowing what I think about their religion and being captured by a random Russian, I would choose ISIS, death will be far less unpleasant
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 23, 2024, 12:58:42 pm
The United States has called on Kyiv to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries.
The reason - this could lead to an increase in oil prices worldwide, according to sources cited by the Financial Times.
According to one official, the White House is increasingly disappointed by the "brazen attacks" of Ukrainian drones on Russian oil facilities.
Mwuhahahahaha.
I read this as - You can't wage an effective war against your genocidal enemies because gas prices may stop Biden from winning elections.
Meanwhile, ~100 attacked our energy infrastructure this morning. Hello rolling blackouts... I got used to life without you.
Going back to this, the Ukrainian government has explicitly called this out as false. (https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/22/ukraine-says-west-not-pressuring-it-to-end-attacks-on-russian-oil-facilities-00148673)
Quote
Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the office of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the government has not received calls from the United States asking Ukraine to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Podolyak’s comments, forwarded to POLITICO by the office of Ukraine Energy Minister German Galushchenko, were in contrast to earlier reports by the Financial Times that the U.S. had urged the Eastern European nation to refrain from attacks on major energy infrastructure for fear of sending oil prices skyrocketing and prompting retaliation from the Kremlin.
Podolyak in comments first published by RBC-Ukraine called the report of U.S. criticism of the attacks “fake information” and said “Ukraine will destroy fuel infrastructure” in Russia.
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 23, 2024, 01:11:59 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on March 24, 2024, 12:34:54 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 24, 2024, 07:46:54 pm
Trying to intimidate ISIS by posting literal torture of arrested suspects online is a bold strategy.I would call it lame. ISIS is probably laughing at the FSB.
Post by: lemon10 on March 25, 2024, 06:51:27 am
Trying to intimidate ISIS by posting literal torture of arrested suspects online is a bold strategy.They aren't trying to intimidate ISIS. They are sending a message to the Russian people.
They are saying "look how tough we are on terrorists, you can trust us, we will keep you safe no matter what it takes". (An especially important point to note given their earlier intelligence failures).
To those that oppose the current regime they are saying "Look at what we will do to you if you attack the goverment, its better to stay safe and not do anything against us".
Post by: Cathar on March 25, 2024, 06:51:45 am
Torture isn't meant for ISIS, it's a dog and pony show for the domestic population in any case
Post by: martinuzz on March 25, 2024, 08:45:49 am
Meanwhile the Russian government says the accusations that IS did this are fabricated by the USA.
Let's hope they don't use this as an excuse to nuke Ukraine.
Post by: Telgin on March 25, 2024, 10:59:01 am
Post by: EuchreJack on March 25, 2024, 03:30:41 pm
Putin's daughter was knocked up by the cousin of Ukraine's President. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katerina_Tikhonova)
Post by: King Zultan on March 26, 2024, 01:46:54 am
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 26, 2024, 12:49:06 pm
Trying to find a reason Putin wouldn't pull out the nukes at the first sign of a terminal illness, I stumbled upon the true reason for the War.Though they have the same last name, there's actually no relation.
Putin's daughter was knocked up by the cousin of Ukraine's President. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katerina_Tikhonova)
Post by: Starver on March 26, 2024, 08:18:55 pm
...of course it was rhetorical (and I also know that it's not just Clinton who contributed to the failure to protect them), but you did 'ask'.You basically asked why nobody was doing anything about Russia.
I don't think so? I already know why nobody can do anything about Russia. (I.e., Russia has nukes and has threatened to use them. Ukraine gave theirs up in 1994 after President Clinton promised we'd protect them.)
Things may become 'messy', in wartime, but there are hard and fast obligations to punish grave violations (which go well beyond accidents, carelessness or misunderstandings).
Tell us more about how Russia is being punished hard and fast for its violations.
Of course, you may also have misread a reference to obligations (fulfilled or not) for a reference to actions (required or not), but I let that pass at the time. I do occasionally have people think I say things that I actually don't.
(PS. for new readers: "grave violations" as in "violations that are grave (serious)", rather than specifically violations of graves. Could easily be both, of course. They tend to use "grave breaches" and "serious violations" in the actual Convention wording and other official literature, it seems. Perhaps to avoid just this kind of misreading! ???)
...and we now return you to your regular programming.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 26, 2024, 08:43:54 pm
Hypothetically, if I am, that would NOT be what I meant, but I don't want to rehash it.
Also, grave breaches could still be breaches of graves, although both that and the "violations" version would be verging on newspaperese.
Post by: Starver on March 26, 2024, 09:11:08 pm
I can't tell if I'm being subtweeted here.
Ah. No. If subtweeted is a term for what I think it is, totally a coincidence (or perhaps independent sublineage repollination from the whoever first brought the idea into all our minds[1]) that I chose to bring something here that involved a quote about nukes (and Ukraine), arriving immediately after your reply which quoted a native reference about nukes (on Ukraine).
But it's a mildly irresistable subject. One that many people have their eye on (https://what-if.xkcd.com/imgs/a/73/neutrinos_bomb.png), I'm sure....
[1] The histories of the most immediate conversations can be easily checked, no doubt. But I won't.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 27, 2024, 03:26:41 am
...brought over from the Gaza thread, by this point becoming a totally non-Gaza subject diversion.
NO NO BAD Starver. DO NOT DO THAT!
Don't make me lock this thread, because I totally will.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 27, 2024, 11:36:06 am
It was a joking reference to something they say onI can't tell if I'm being subtweeted here.
Ah. No. If subtweeted is a term for what I think it is, totally a coincidence (or perhaps independent sublineage repollination from the whoever first brought the idea into all our minds[1]) that I chose to bring something here that involved a quote about nukes (and Ukraine), arriving immediately after your reply which quoted a native reference about nukes (on Ukraine).
But it's a mildly irresistable subject. One that many people have their eye on (https://what-if.xkcd.com/imgs/a/73/neutrinos_bomb.png), I'm sure....
[1] The histories of the most immediate conversations can be easily checked, no doubt. But I won't.
Mmm, I just noticed some parts of that paragraph have disappeared since I read them. :P
Post by: Strongpoint on March 31, 2024, 08:29:19 am
Meanwhile, our drone strikes against Russian oil refineries are a thing of the past. None were hit for something like 2 weeks. Neither did we retaliate against their power stations near the border.
I see three explanations for that
1) Our production\supply of drones is, in fact, so meager that we simply ran out of them and are in stockpiling mode for future strikes few months later
2) Russians improved their anti-drone defense to the point when none can get through
3) US and\or others persuaded us to stop doing those strikes.
All three explanations are depressing...
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 31, 2024, 08:59:34 am
Post by: EuchreJack on March 31, 2024, 01:10:00 pm
I have no doubt Ukraine will find some new inventive way to use their drones. There are also supply issues, unfortunately.
Post by: King Zultan on April 02, 2024, 01:57:25 am
Post by: Starver on April 02, 2024, 08:37:12 am
(It's probably more the extent of the attack range that's a useful issue here. Moscow can be circled with an Iron Dome to prevent all further damage to Kremlin flagpoles, but if the attacks can be projected this wide and far then practically every potential target this side of the West Siberia Economic Region needs to have anti-drone forces stationed somewhere nearby, as defense-in-depth.)
Unknown actual efficacy, but that's not necessarily the point. And anything actually damaging will be downplayed anyway.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 02, 2024, 09:21:34 pm
Post by: Great Order on April 03, 2024, 10:33:33 am
"Oh yeah, like that."
Post by: Strongpoint on April 03, 2024, 11:00:14 am
Post by: Starver on April 05, 2024, 08:26:37 am
(Unrelated, geopolitically, but the other day Myanmar's "government in exile" did some drone attacks upon the military capital... Definitely become the tactical zeitgeist, at all levels of militarism.)
Post by: King Zultan on April 06, 2024, 02:09:06 am
Post by: Starver on April 06, 2024, 03:30:50 am
Also, I think this was a measure already sent through by the legislature a while ago, but Z. had held off signing until last week(?) so fully anticipated and also probably subject to various layers of go/no-go (according to the 'now' pressures in some ways).
...in short, it's not going to be any less of a meat-grinder, for either side. But I doubt there's much newsworthy change since the reported withdrawl from that noted town recently, that had apprently been soaking up so much of Russia's effort. And that seems to have been more an ammo-related decision than a manpower one.
(But, importantly, I'm only repeating/reinterpreting/passing on what has drifted my way via global news - I've not got any actual inside track on this. And, if I had, I probably be waffling away on a games forum about it, especially in the presence of those who might be directly affected, would I? Not in the face of people who are much closer to events than me and can at least claim to have more highly-ranked armchairs than me, and certainly have more skin in the game.)
edit: Meant to mention Russia's current efforts against Kharkiv. But I would imagine that any recent decisions to pull back from other places was done in order to be able to still defend/counter against threats on this part of the map, and others like it. It's doubtless a very symbolic aim, for both sides and probably no easing off by either. Several deaths from Russian drones is the latest news, but I think that meatgrinder will also be active where the ground-action currently is around that area...
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2024, 09:50:11 pm
https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/diepe-russische-infiltratie-in-oostenrijkse-politie-en-veiligheidsdienst~b2903fdd/
Vienna secret service headquarters has been used by the FSB for years as a forward base of operations.
The best course of action would be to annex Austria and make it part of Germany, in hopes of transforming it back from Russian useful idiots to European country.
Post by: Maximum Spin on April 12, 2024, 10:09:10 pm
Austria has been severely compromised. Investigation has shown that Russian agents have taken over their police and secret service over the past decade.That article is paywalled. Is it pertaining to this? https://apnews.com/article/austria-spying-scandal-russia-ott-marsalek-wirecard-8921f3ce95b30646ee1952bf8949a43f
https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/diepe-russische-infiltratie-in-oostenrijkse-politie-en-veiligheidsdienst~b2903fdd/
Vienna secret service headquarters has been used by the FSB for years as a forward base of operations.
The best course of action would be to annex Austria and make it part of Germany, in hopes of transforming it back from Russian useful idiots to European country.
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2024, 10:14:37 pm
My Volkskrant's paywall can be easily circumvented by using Firefox + NoScript Add on (stops any and all Java scripts from running without explicit permission, can recommend). Apparently their paywall is a Java Script. Using NoScript unlocks everything except photo specials and some in depthh specials that are labelled 'subscribers only'. I notified them even of their easily breachable paywall. Luckily, they're a lovely newspaper and are in favour of freedom of flow of information. Most of their articles are free if you know how to and they don't care. Or rather, they care enough to not change that.
EDIT: if you can afford to do so, pay their subscription. Support decent journalism. I would if I could afford.
Post by: Maximum Spin on April 12, 2024, 10:18:52 pm
Yeah it looks like that is a similar report.Oh, that's convenient. I normally try that, actually, but I somehow didn't think of it this time after unsuccessfully trying a proxy I usually use (12ft.io) instead.
My Volkskrant's paywall can be easily circumvented by using Firefox + NoScript Add on (stops any and all Java scripts from running without explicit permission, can recommend). Apparently their paywall is a Java Script. Using NoScript unlocks everything except photo specials and some in depthh specials that are labelled 'subscribers only'. I notified them even of their easily breachable paywall. Luckily, they're a lovely newspaper and are in favour of freedom of flow of information. Most of their articles are free if you know how to and they don't care. Or rather, they care enough to not change that.
EDIT: if you can afford to do so, pay their subscription. Support decent journalism. I would if I could afford.
Post by: King Zultan on April 13, 2024, 02:20:28 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 13, 2024, 03:52:37 pm
Post by: Telgin on April 13, 2024, 04:41:01 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 13, 2024, 04:50:47 pm
Which is an interesting twist, now that I think about it. Do we have any idea how much Iran was supplying Russia recently? It seems like Russia would have pressured them to not attack Israel if they were relying on their exports, but maybe they thought they had more to gain by distracting the US. They've also started setting up their own drone manufacturing plants, haven't they?
Iranian Shahed drones are of the largest impact, Russia did localize the production to some extent but they still receive parts from Iran.
They also reportedly provide artillery ammunition via the Caspian Sea but the extent of that is unknown.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 13, 2024, 05:03:29 pm
Iran's manufacturing of drones for Russia allows them to further fund and develop the ability to use drones for their own military.
In addition, the War in Ukraine has offered very limited opportunities for Iran's drones to hit nautical targets.
Iran's attacks likely help Russia technologically.
... they're really quite inconvenient to Russia geopolitically.
If US funding of Israel and Ukraine increases (remember, they're linked now), it will likely be due to fears of Iran. Which probably benefits Iran, as it means more business.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 13, 2024, 05:13:57 pm
This is why I am very unsure that this particular black swan is good for Ukraine.
Post by: Random_Dragon on April 13, 2024, 05:18:55 pm
Quote
[4:18 PM]C͖̮̻ha̗̪̼os͎̼vo̠̺̼̟lt̘͉: Another country ruled by assholes has joined in the fight against a country ruled by assholes in the interest of defending a third country ruled by assholes. We're gonna get fucking ww3 at this rate and it's gonna be over the most unlikable cunts on the planet, kek.
EDIT: Meant to put that in a quote block not a spoiler
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 13, 2024, 06:09:33 pm
I'm too averse to the toxicity in the Israel/Palestine thread to have that end up on my notifications feed so I'm posting my thoughts here instead, fuck it.That thread got silently locked anyway, probably in anticipation.Quote[4:18 PM]C͖̮̻ha̗̪̼os͎̼vo̠̺̼̟lt̘͉: Another country ruled by assholes has joined in the fight against a country ruled by assholes in the interest of defending a third country ruled by assholes. We're gonna get fucking ww3 at this rate and it's gonna be over the most unlikable cunts on the planet, kek.
EDIT: Meant to put that in a quote block not a spoiler
Post by: Random_Dragon on April 13, 2024, 06:18:25 pm
Post by: hector13 on April 13, 2024, 06:19:31 pm
Extremists are in charge on both sides though, so that’s unlikely.
Edit: Iranian special forces did seize an Israeli linked vessel at the Strait of Hormuz not that long ago too.
Post by: Starver on April 13, 2024, 06:34:54 pm
That thread got silently locked anyway, probably in anticipation.
...hmm, not sure how I feel about being the last poster in it. (I mean, someone has to be, of course...)
Ok, Ukrainean news (well, newsish, it was announced a day or two ago), just to stop this one being about Israel too... The UK might be looking to roll out Dragonfire (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DragonFire_(weapon)). I mean, it'd definitely be a field-test situation... (Also wouldn't be the first time that a 'wonderweapon', or indeed 'wondershield', is a bit overhyped but I also can't see any hard and fast reason why it isn't as claimed.)
Post by: Telgin on April 13, 2024, 07:43:32 pm
Edit: supposedly it's designed to also be useful against mortar rounds, so it might have more value than I realize if it can currently target and destroy artillery rounds in mid flight. Deploying a lot of them to Ukraine would make a very big difference if they have them and the systems are actually effective against such targets.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 13, 2024, 10:02:36 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 13, 2024, 10:48:49 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 14, 2024, 12:11:35 am
And don't, I repeat, don't blow up the Iranian oil industry.
_______________
Note that considering the "brilliant" results of the Iranian attack, we now know what will happen should Russia ever attack NATO. Nearly all of their primitive\outdated shit will be shot down. ICBMs is the only open question.
In the next few days we will also probably learn what a modern airforce can do with Russian\Iranian level of air defense
Post by: Cathar on April 14, 2024, 06:13:08 am
ICBMs is the only open question.We know for a fact that Patriots can intercept Kinzhals. At this point Russia cannot end the world, this much became clear, and maybe we should end them before they develop this capacity anew.
Part of me wants Israel to make a big pile of ashes with Iranian oil sector. Not only because putting americans in front of their open hypocrisy would be hysterical, not only because it would expedite the process of making them hold their word for once, but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.
Post by: Flying Dice on April 14, 2024, 06:21:29 am
ICBMs is the only open question.We know for a fact that Patriots can intercept Kinzhals. At this point it is important that we stop being cowards, Russia cannot end the world, this much became clear, and maybe we should end them before they develop this capacity anew.
Part of me wants Israel to make a big pile of ashes with Iranian oil sector. Not only because putting americans in front of their open hypocrisy would be hysterical, not only because it would expedite the process of making them hold their word for once, but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.
Not to mention that ICBMs require this thing called maintenance. You can't just leave them sitting in their silos for 40 years. Anyone who seriously thinks that the Soviets and their Russian
I am also inching closer to the "MacArthur was thinking too narrowly" camp.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 14, 2024, 06:41:24 am
but also because a high price for oil is now a positive for us, as Russia became an importing country.
Russia won't be importing oil any time soon. Sure, they may need to import fuel but it will be fuel made from their oil.
Short term they would benefit from the Iranian oil industry going boom. Long term... Iran is their ally, they have, to a certain degree, a shared resource pool.
Post by: Bumber on April 14, 2024, 09:14:25 am
Plus the stakes are much higher for letting a few nuclear ICBMs slip through, should it come to that. A few of Iran's missiles got through, I think, which isn't a problem only so long as they're conventional explosives and miss their mark.
Post by: Madman198237 on April 14, 2024, 09:23:57 am
You're talking about asking *thousands* of weapons, weapons that made up the principal Russian security guarantee post-Soviet collapse, to all fail or be intercepted by a limited supply of US or some allied interceptor systems. The percentages are not in our favor (our favor being "not going to near enough end the world as far as we are all concerned").
Post by: Strongpoint on April 14, 2024, 12:59:57 pm
Hypersonic missiles weren't part of Iran's attack. Also there was ample warning time. I wouldn't jump to conclusions about the ability of Russia to attack a nearby NATO country closer than Israel is to Iran (12 hours by drone.)
Sure, attacking some Estonia will be more effective. Even Poland or Sweden will have problems despite major investments in air defense. But to win a conventional war with a European part of NATO you need to bomb countries that are key for their military and industry - Germany, France, Italy Russian missiles and drones are not reaching there at any significant numbers. And the USA is as safe as possible.
ICBMs are the problem, we do not know what the Russian Strategic Missile Force is capable of. Neither do we know what West can actually do in its defense. But we do know how modern Air Defense handles conventional mass attacks of Russian\Iranian level of tech. We got a clear demonstration.
Post by: lemon10 on April 14, 2024, 01:23:52 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 18, 2024, 02:13:46 am
Every time when I am in despair that our politicians are a bunch of total morons, she does something that reminds me that no, they are not that bad. Worse examples exist.
Those amendments of hers... mmmmmm... Pure art of idiocy.
https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/Conscript%20amendment240417145722857.pdf
https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/GREENE_218_xml240417151911517.pdf
Post by: EuchreJack on April 18, 2024, 11:52:01 am