For Ukrainians: It is vitally important that the suffering of your people be given full and accurate coverage on as many mediums as possible. Thus, to keep this channel open, it is vital that you do NOT respond emotionally in this thread. It is a big ask, but hopefully you can see the need to keep the information flowing.
Also, this (https://www.facebook.com/denisovaombudsman/posts/517529726394971)(Synopsis/copypaste for those that don't want to create a Facebook account?)
The level of brutality of the army of terrorists and executioners of the Russian Federation knows no bounds - raped children…
A 14-year-old girl was raped by 5 occupying men. She is pregnant now. Bucha.
An 11-year-old boy was raped in front of his mother - she was tied to a chair to watch. Bucha.
A 20-year-old woman, raped by three occupiers in all possible ways at once. Irpen.
There is no place on earth or in hell where racist criminals can hide from retribution!
Rape is strictly prohibited by Article 27 of the 1949 Geneva Convention relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War.
I appeal to the UN Commission for Investigation Human Rights Violations during the Russian Military Invasion of Ukraine and the expert mission set up by the OSCE participating States in accordance with the Moscow Mechanism to take into account these facts of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.
The racist occupiers must bear the strictest responsibility!
Spurred by Putin, Russians Turn on One Another Over the War
Citizens are denouncing one another, illustrating how the war is feeding paranoia and polarization in Russian society.
Marina Dubrova, an English teacher on the Russian island of Sakhalin in the Pacific, showed an uplifting YouTube video to her eighth-grade class last month in which children, in Russian and Ukrainian, sing about a “world without war.”
After she played it, a group of girls stayed behind during recess and quizzed her on her views.
“Ukraine is a separate country, a separate one,” Ms. Dubrova, 57, told them.
“No longer,” one of the girls shot back.
A few days later, the police came to her school in the port town of Korsakov. In court, she heard a recording of that conversation, apparently made by one of the students. The judge handed down a $400 fine for “publicly discrediting” Russia’s Armed Forces. The school fired her, she said, for “amoral behavior.”
“It’s as though they’ve all plunged into some kind of madness,” Ms. Dubrova said in a phone interview, reflecting on the pro-war mood around her.
With President Vladimir V. Putin’s direct encouragement, Russians who support the war against Ukraine are starting to turn on the enemy within.
The episodes are not yet a mass phenomenon, but they illustrate the building paranoia and polarization in Russian society. Citizens are denouncing one another in an eerie echo of Stalin’s terror, spurred on by vicious official rhetoric from the state and enabled by far-reaching new laws that criminalize dissent.
There are reports of students turning in teachers and people telling on their neighbors and even the diners at the next table. In a mall in western Moscow, it was the “no to war” text displayed in a computer repair store and reported by a passer-by that got the store’s owner, Marat Grachev, detained by the police. In St. Petersburg, a local news outlet documented the furor over suspected pro-Western sympathies at the public library; it erupted after a library official mistook the image of a Soviet scholar on a poster for that of Mark Twain.
In the western region of Kaliningrad, the authorities sent residents text messages urging them to provide phone numbers and email addresses of “provocateurs” in connection with the “special operation” in Ukraine, Russian newspapers reported; they can do so conveniently through a specialized account in the Telegram messaging app. A nationalist political party launched a website urging Russians to report “pests” in the elite.
“I am absolutely sure that a cleansing will begin,” Dmitri Kuznetsov, the member of Parliament behind the website, said in an interview, predicting that the process would accelerate after the “active phase” of the war ended. He then clarified: “We don’t want anyone to be shot, and we don’t even want people to go to prison.”
But it is the history of mass execution and political imprisonment in the Soviet era, and the denunciation of fellow citizens encouraged by the state, that now looms over Russia’s deepening climate of repression. Mr. Putin set the tone in a speech on March 16, declaring that Russian society needed a “self-purification” in which people would “distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouths.”
In the Soviet logic, those who choose not to report their fellow citizens could be viewed as being suspect themselves.
“In these conditions, fear is settling into people again,” said Nikita Petrov, a leading scholar of the Soviet secret police. “And that fear dictates that you report.”
In March, Mr. Putin signed a law that punishes public statements contradicting the government line on what the Kremlin terms its “special military operation” in Ukraine with as much as 15 years in prison. It was a harsh but necessary measure, the Kremlin said, given the West’s “information war” against Russia.
Prosecutors have already used the law against more than 400 people, according to the OVD-Info rights group, including a man who held up a piece of paper with eight asterisks on it. “No to war” in Russian has eight letters.
“This is some kind of enormous joke that we, to our misfortune, are living in,” Aleksandra Bayeva, the head of OVD-Info’s legal department, said of the absurdity of some of the war-related prosecutions. She said she had seen a sharp rise in the frequency of people reporting on their fellow citizens.
“Repressions are not just done by the hands of the state authorities,” she said. “They are also done by the hands of regular citizens.”
In most cases, the punishments related to war criticism have been limited to fines; for the more than 15,000 antiwar protesters arrested since the invasion began on Feb. 24, fines are the most common penalty, though some were sentenced to as many as 30 days in jail, Ms. Bayeva said. But some people are being threatened with longer prison terms.
In the western city of Penza, another English teacher, Irina Gen, arrived in class one day and found a giant “Z” scrawled on the chalkboard. The Russian government has been promoting the letter as a symbol of support for the war, after it was seen painted as an identifying marker on Russian military vehicles in Ukraine.
Ms. Gen told her students it looked like half a swastika.
Later, an eighth grader asked her why Russia was being banned from sports competitions in Europe.
“I think that’s the right thing to do,” Ms. Gen responded. “Until Russia starts behaving in a civilized manner, this will continue forever.”
“But we don’t know all the details,” a girl said, referring to the war.
“That’s right, you don’t know anything at all,” Ms. Gen said.
A recording of that exchange appeared on a popular account on Telegram that often posts inside information about criminal cases. The Federal Security Service, a successor agency to the K.G.B., called her in and warned her that her words blaming Russia for the bombing of a maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, last month were “100 percent a criminal case.”
She is now being investigated for causing “grave consequences” under last month’s censorship law, punishable by 10 to 15 years in prison.
Ms. Gen, 45, said she found little support among her students or from her school, and quit her job this month. When she talked in class about her opposition to the war, she said she felt “hatred” toward her radiating from some of her students.
“My point of view did not resonate in the hearts and minds of basically anyone,” she said in an interview.
But others who have been the targets of denunciation by fellow citizens drew more hopeful lessons from the experience. On Sakhalin Island, after local news outlets reported on Ms. Dubrova’s case, one of her former students raised $150 in a day for her, before Ms. Dubrova told her to stop and said she would pay the fine herself. On Friday, Ms. Dubrova handed the money over to a local dog shelter.
In Moscow, Mr. Grachev, the computer repair store owner, said he found it remarkable that not one of his hundreds of customers threatened to turn him in for the “no to war” text that he prominently displayed on a screen behind the counter for several weeks after the invasion. After all, he noted, he was forced to double the price of some services because of Western sanctions, surely angering some of his customers. Instead, many thanked him.
The man who apparently turned in Mr. Grachev was a passer-by he refers to as a “grandpa” who, he said, twice warned his employees in late March that they were violating the law. Mr. Grachev, 35, said he believed the man was convinced he was doing his civic duty by reporting the store to the police, and most likely did not have access to information beyond state propaganda.
Mr. Grachev was fined 100,000 rubles, more than $1,200. A Moscow politician wrote about the case on social media, including Mr. Grachev’s bank details for anyone who wanted to help. Enough money to cover the fine arrived within two hours, Mr. Grachev said.
He received 250,000 rubles in total, he said, from about 250 separate donations, and he plans to donate the surplus to OVD-Info, which provided him with legal aid.
“In practice, we see that not everything is so bad,” he said in an interview.
Mr. Grachev is now pondering how to replace his “no to war” sign. He is considering: “There was a sign here for which a 100,000 ruble fine was imposed.”
Ex-Italian PM 'deeply disappointed' by Putin's behaviour
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that he was "deeply disappointed and saddened" by the behaviour of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
When he was in power, Berlusconi had a close friendship with Putin, and invited him on vacation to his villa in Sardinia.
"I've known him about 20 years ago and he always seemed to me to be a democrat and a man of peace," the 85-year-old billionaire said, addressing a convention of his conservative Forza Italia party in Rome.
Berlusconi, who served as head of the Italian government three times between 1994 and 2011, had previously refrained from publicly criticising Putin.
"Faced with the horror of the massacres of civilians in Bucha and other places, real war crimes, Russia can not deny its responsibilities," he said on Saturday.
North Korea blames US for Russia's expulsion from UN human rights body
Last week, Russia was suspended from the United Nations' leading human rights body - the human rights council - after a vote by members. It followed mounting evidence that Russian forces have killed civilians in Ukraine.
North Korea - which was among the 24 countries that voted against the move - has now denounced Russia's suspension.
"What the US is after... is to isolate the independent countries, and forces challenging them at the international arena, so as to maintain its illegal and inhumane US-led hegemonic order," says a government statement carried by state news agency KCNA and reported by Reuters.
The statement says international organisations should not be "abused" as a means for the US to put political pressure on countries.
Kyiv expects Russian attack in eastern Ukraine ‘will begin soon’Some part of me fears that retreating from Kyiv is not to start an offensive in the east but a withdrawal to not be in a nuke blast radius.
Kyiv expects Russia will launch a major offensive in eastern Ukraine “soon”, a spokesman for the country’s defence ministry says.
“The enemy has almost finished preparation for [an] assault on the east, the attack will begin soon,” Oleksandr Motuzyanyk said at a news conference.
Famine in Africa was predicted as a likely outcome of all this. Did Ukraine export grain to Africa in recent history as well?
What deadline in May? I have heard of no such thing.
Allegedly, Russian forces used a poisonous substance of unknown origin against the Ukrainian military and civilians in Mariupol, which was dropped from an UAV. - https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1513597873593663492Oh boy it's Aleppo all over again
Allegedly, Russian forces used a poisonous substance of unknown origin against the Ukrainian military and civilians in Mariupol, which was dropped from an UAV. - https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1513597873593663492Yeah, my Volkskrant war liveblog now also reports that the Azovbatallion claims Russia is using UAVs to drop a toxic substance
It's miserable to know that any false flag attack is probably moreso aimed at producing more propaganda to keep the Russian people in their place supporting the war, but if there's even the slightest sliver of a chance that these chemical weapons are being rolled out to try and make themselves look better in the eyes of the rest of the world, I just find that funny.
I can see you dragging those chemical weapons behind you, you know.
These aren't my chemical weapons, these are the enemy's chemical weapons.
That's clearly not the case.
The enemy is going to use these to gas civilians soon!
Why do you feel the need to refer to them as "The enemy", they have a name you know.
Only traitors to our glorious leader would refer to the enemy by anything other than the enemy! That is a crime!
Bu- hey, hey hey! Get away from the chemical weapons!
The enemy is about to use them!
GET AWAY FROM THA-
...
... Why. Why are you like this.
See. The enemy is using chemical weapons against us.
... You know, this is why no-one likes you.
Allegedly, Russian forces used a poisonous substance of unknown origin against the Ukrainian military and civilians in Mariupol, which was dropped from an UAV. - https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1513597873593663492
Can industrial toxins explain alleged 'chemical attack' in Mariupol?
A chemical weapons expert from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) is urging caution about a claimed chemical attack in Mariupol, noting that illness among Ukrainian soldiers may be the result of contamination encountered during fighting in industrial areas.
In a string of posts on Twitter, Dan Kaszeta - an author and former soldier in the US Army's Chemical Corps - says there remains "a paucity of information" about what took place in Mariupol.
The city's deputy mayor has claimed that the chemical attack was carried out by a Russian drone.
Kaszeta added that the symptoms that the Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly showing - such as shortness of breath - might be explained by the inhalation of fumes caused by fighting in a heavily industrial area.
"Mariupol is one big toxic burn pit at the moment," he said. "Somehow we're supposed to assume that one small drone payload of something is tragically unhealthier than the rest of this mess of an environment."
"It is, in fact, plausible," Kaszeta added. "But it's also plausible that we have a classic problem of smoke and flame and modern industrial materials."
President Vladimir V. Putin dismissed the atrocities in Bucha as a “fake” when asked about them at a news conference with President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus. At the news conference, Mr. Lukashenko claimed the evidence of mass killings had in fact been planted by British intelligence.
Lukashenko claims the evidence of mass killings around Kyiv were planted by the British intelligence sevices.watQuote from: NYTimesPresident Vladimir V. Putin dismissed the atrocities in Bucha as a “fake” when asked about them at a news conference with President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus. At the news conference, Mr. Lukashenko claimed the evidence of mass killings had in fact been planted by British intelligence.
Russia moves military equipment including missile systems towards Finnish border.
Russia moves military equipment including missile systems towards Finnish border.
Any source for this? Didn't notice yet anything in the Finnish media I follow (mainly interested in it as a Finnish citizen).
Russia moves military equipment including missile systems towards Finnish border.
Any source for this? Didn't notice yet anything in the Finnish media I follow (mainly interested in it as a Finnish citizen).
Its unverified footage, so may or may not be accurate
https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/russia-seen-moving-military-equipment-towards-finland-after-warning-county-not-to-join-nato/news-story/48fedd850a231cd51108136624360735
(Translated from Swedish with Google translate)
Military expert rejects video that allegedly shows heavy Russian weapons on their way to Finland: "Looks like it was about information influence"
Petteri Kajanmaa at the Swedish National Defense College believes that a video, which is alleged to show Russian coastal robot systems on their way to the Finnish border, is about scare propaganda linked to Finland's NATO debate.
There are speculations that Russia is moving heavy weapons towards the Finnish border, due to a video that is spread on Twitter. The video shows the transport of the coastal robot system K-300P Bastion Coastal at an intersection near Viborg.
There still seems to be no basis for the speculation, according to Petteri Kajanmaa, head of the Swedish National Defense College's Department of Martial Arts.
- There are no signs that something unusual is going on, Kajanmaa says to Svenska Yle.
The military vehicles in the video are robotic systems that it is known that Russia has previously placed around the Baltic Sea, for example in Kaliningrad.
- So it is no wonder to see the system near the Baltic Sea.
The video raises many questions. According to Kajanmaa, for example, it is unclear whether the video has really been created now.
- It seems to be about some kind of information impact, says Kajanmaa.
The person who created the video zooms in on a road sign that military vehicles pass by. The sign says "Helsinki". According to Kajanmaa, the video may have been created for the purpose of causing fear.
- The goal can be to influence the population's and political decision - makers' sense of security. In that case, it may be linked to Finland's discussions on NATO.
If Finland applies for NATO membership, we may experience an increasing impact on information in the near future.
- We expect both the spread of false information and outright intimidation tactics. We've already seen both of them - the congestion attacks last week, political moves and dubious videos.
That's probably related to the covid stuff and lockdown of Shanghai and not Taiwan.
Biden just called the Russian actions 'genocide'
Biden just called the Russian actions 'genocide'
Wake me when we see any actual action taken, which is unlikely since that'll require starting WWIII.
The thing is that IIRC the US is in fact a signatory to a treaty demanding that signatories take action to prevent genocide no matter where it is happening; hence why most politicians refer to genocide in other countries that they don't want to get involved with as "ethnic cleansing" as if that makes it better and therefore excuses their lack of action.
Basically, unless Biden('s office) walks back his statements, that is in fact meaningful even if maybe not that important at this point. Definitely an interesting point, though.
Seems like most treaties are only made to make people feel better then immediately thrown in the trash or used to wipe an ass.I mean according to Russia's own treaty with Ukraine to give up nukes in exchange for security Putin's own invasion is illegal, but treaties are only as good as your faith or your teeth. In this case there's not a lot of faith, so it falls to teeth
Meanwhile in Finland, the parliament will debate this week whether they want to apply for NATO membership as well.
How tf is Putin going to argue for stabiliy at this point lmao(Well, better for them than losing their valuables directly... It perpendicularly reminds me of the old joke: Jock and Angus are walking through a rough part of town. A figure jumps out on them with a knife and demands all their money. Jock calmly reaches into his pocket and gives all his loose change to Angus, saying "Here's what I owed you from last week...")
It's like a bank robber urging everyone to keep depositing their money mid robbery
Very possible, with the latest arms deliveries including long range anti-ship weaponry
A Russian cruiser which was famously defied by Ukrainian troops on a small island at the start of the war has been hit by Ukrainian rockets in the Black Sea, according to Ukrainian officials.
The Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, received "very serious damage", Odesa regional governor Maksym Marchenko said.
"It has been confirmed that the missile cruiser Moskva today went exactly where it was sent by our border guards on Snake Island!" he said.
___________________
Heh. I do hope it is true. (It will be rather embarrassing if Russians will show it undamaged tomorrow)Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Moskva warship has sunk - Russian state media
Russia's defence ministry says its Moskva missile ship has sunk, state media is reporting.
Ukraine says it carried out a strike on the vessel, while Russia claims ammunition on board blew up.
"During the towing of the Moskva cruiser to the port of destination, due to damage to the hull received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition, the ship lost stability," the Russian military department said in a statement.
"In the conditions of stormy seas, the ship sank," it added.
It's sort of weird that these days the far-right is often pro-Russia.
And what practical difference would that make? Russia has been claiming that this was a "special military operation" or whatever, but do they even have any capability to deploy more forces than they already have?
I guess it makes more sense if it's just a propaganda tactic to deflect internal dissent.
Russia swear revenge for alleged attacks on the Russian village of Klimovo.
Russia claims a Ukrainian attack helicopter attacked the village.
Ukraine denies, saying this is exactly what they warned for a few days ago, that Russia would attack it's own civilians to create more anti-Ukraine sentiment.
Russia says it will hit Kyiv with bombs and rocket attacks in revenge for the 'terrorist sabotage attacks on Russia'.
How many generals is that now?
Battle for the Donbas now underway - Zelensky
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says the "battle for the Donbas" is now underway.
His comments follow warnings from other senior officials that Russia has begun its much anticipated assault on the eastern region on Monday.
"We can now confirm that Russian troops have begun the battle for the Donbas, which they have been preparing for a long time. A large part of the Russian army is now dedicated to this offensive"
--President Volodymyr Zelensky
One could say the war is starting to significantly affect Russia's general population
Russia deploys up to 20,000 mercenaries from Syria, Libya and elsewhere in Donbas
Russia has deployed up to 20,000 mercenaries from Syria, Libya and elsewhere in Ukraine’s Donbas region, sent into battle with no heavy equipment or armoured vehicles, according to a European official.
The official said the estimates of mercenary involvement on the ground in eastern Ukraine range from 10,000 to 20,000 and that it was hard to break down that figure between Syrians, Libyans and other fighters recruited by the Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group.
“What I can tell you is that we did see some transfer from these areas, Syria and Libya, to the eastern Donbas region, and these guys are mainly used as a mass against the Ukrainian resistance,” the official told reporters. “It’s infantry. They don’t have any heavy equipment or vehicles.”
The mercenaries are being thrown into the Russian effort to capture as much as possible of eastern Ukraine, in what western defence officials have described as a rush to have some sort of victory that Vladimir Putin can announce at the 9 May military parade in Moscow commemorating the second world war.
The Kremlin is seen as having four objectives in this second phase of its war in Ukraine, the European official said:
- Capturing the Donbas.
- Securing a land bridge to Crimea, in which the besieged city of Mariupol is key.
- Seizing Kherson Oblast to secure the supply of fresh water to Crimea.
- Capturing additional territory that could be used as a buffer or a bargaining chip in negotiations.
Russia has been hitting the Azovstal steel plant, the main remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the city of Mariupol, with bunker-buster bombs, a Ukrainian presidential adviser has claimed.
“The world watches the murder of children online and remains silent,” Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter.
Mariupol’s city council said on Monday that over 1,000 civilians were sheltering in basement premises underneath the Azovstal plant.
Russia has denied targeting civilians.
Russia test-launches new intercontinental ballistic missile, it says
Russia says it has test-launched its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.
President Vladimir Putin said it would provide food for thought for those who try to threaten Russia.
He was shown on TV being briefed by the military that the missile had been launched from Plesetsk in the country's north-west and hit targets on the Kamchatka peninsula in the far east of Russia.
What missile is Russia testing?
A bit more detail now on the ballistic missile which Russia says it's testing.
It's the first launch for the Sarmat missile, says the Russian Ministry of Defence - and was considered a success.
Once tests have concluded, it will become part of Russia's strategic missiles force.
The weapon can hit targets at long range using different flight trajectories, according to the Ministry of Defence.
"Sarmat is the most powerful missile with the world's longest distance to hit targets, which will significantly enhance the combat power of our country's strategic nuclear forces," it adds.
Russia missile test not a threat - US
Some reaction now to Russia's test of a new nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile.
The Pentagon says the move is not a threat to the US and its allies, as Moscow "properly notified" Washington of the test under its nuclear treaty obligations.
"It was not a surprise," Pentagon spokesman John Kirby tells reporters.
A little earlier, Putin said the new Sarmat missile - capable of hitting long-range targets - was food for thought for those who try to threaten Russia.
Russia is allegedly using bunker-busters against the Azovstal plant, the Guardian reports.Quote from: The GuardianRussia has been hitting the Azovstal steel plant, the main remaining Ukrainian stronghold in the city of Mariupol, with bunker-buster bombs, a Ukrainian presidential adviser has claimed.
“The world watches the murder of children online and remains silent,” Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter.
Mariupol’s city council said on Monday that over 1,000 civilians were sheltering in basement premises underneath the Azovstal plant.
Russia has denied targeting civilians.
Uh huh. And wasn't it Il Palazzo who was so vehemently admonishing us for sensationalizing the war or daring to suggest that the depraved murderers might possibly continue their depraved murder using bunker-buster bombs or might commit genocide. Funny how well that aged isn't it.Yes, it has aged well. And it is going to continue to age well, since it was in no way contingent on any of the claims thrown around ever turning factual.
Putin has ordered his troops to cancel storming the Azov steel factory. Instead, he has ordered that it be hermetically sealed off from the outside world "in a way that not even a fly can go in or out".
Looks like he wants to starve those that are sheltering there.
Putin has ordered his troops to cancel storming the Azov steel factory. Instead, he has ordered that it be hermetically sealed off from the outside world "in a way that not even a fly can go in or out".This could just be a case of "I will bury you" vs "it's your funeral" translation errors
Looks like he wants to starve those that are sheltering there.
“I consider the proposed storming of the industrial zone unnecessary,” he told his Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu in a televised meeting at the Kremlin. “I order you to cancel it.”Other translations I've seen are considerably more basic - don't bleed manpower to win what can be achieved by siege
“There’s no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground through these industrial facilities,” he said. “Block off this industrial area so that not even a fly can get through.”
Given the relative success of the MRAP program back in Afghanistan and the potential merits of using the conflict as a testbed (a very cynical thing to say, I know) I wouldn't be surprised to see more programs like this attempting to tailor tech for UA - i.e. to counter RU.
Kara-Murza was arrested outside his home in Moscow last week and is serving a 15-day detention for allegedly evading police.
The more serious charge — an alleged violation of a vaguely-defined law supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin and enacted by Russia’s parliament just after the country’s invasion of Ukraine — was leveled Friday by a court in Moscow, according to a charging document posted on Facebook by his attorney, Vadim Prokhorov.
Kara-Murza, 40, who lives with his family in Northern Virginia, faces up to 15 years in prison if convicted.
My guess is the political purge over there is officially underway, or if not then soon.
Another mass grave has been found outside of Mariupol, the Associated Press has reported, citing the city council and an adviser to the mayor.
The city council posted a satellite photo provided by Planet Labs showing what it said was a mass grave 45 metres by 25 metres that could hold the bodies of at least 1,000 Mariupol residents.
It said the new reported mass grave is outside the village of Vynohradne, which is east of Mariupol.
Maxar Technologies, a US satellite imagery company, has also released images of the site.
Earlier this week, satellite photos from Maxar Technologies revealed what appeared to be rows of more than 200 freshly dug mass graves in the town of Manhush (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/russian-forces-accused-of-secret-burials-of-civilians-in-mariupol), located to the west of Mariupol.
Moldova has expressed “deep concern” and summoned the Russian ambassador following comments by a Russian military commander who said Moscow’s new aim was to seize control of southern Ukraine, which would also give it access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova.
“These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” Moldova’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
In a meeting with Russian ambassador Oleg Vasnetov, the ministry “reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation,” it continued.
Russian government and military need to be eradicated like the cockroaches they are.
Two Russian generals killed near Kherson – Ukrainian Ministry of Defence
Two Russian generals have been killed near Kherson, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence’s intelligence directorate has said. One is in critical condition.
The Ukrainian military on Friday hit a Russian command post near occupied regional capital Kherson, according to the statement.
Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit applications to join Nato at the same time, the Swedish newspaper Expressen reports.
Both countries have agreed to announce their applications in the week of 16 to 22 May, during Finland’s president Sauli Niinistö’s visit to Stockholm, according to Swedish government sources.
Russia foreign minister warns of ‘real’ danger of World War III
Sergei Lavrov told Russian news agencies that Russia’s peace talks with Ukraine will continue, but that there remains a “real” danger of a third world war. The Russian foreign minister was critical of the Ukrainian president’s approach to peace talks, accusing him of “pretending” to negotiate and calling him a “good actor”.
“Good will has its limits. But if it isn’t reciprocal, that doesn’t help the negotiation process,” he said. “But we are continuing to engage in negotiations with the team delegated by Zelenskiy, and these contacts will go on.”
He said he was confident that “everything will of course finish with the signing of an accord”, but that “the parameters of this accord will be defined by the state of the fighting that will have taken place at the moment the accord becomes reality.”
The danger of a world war is real, he said. “The danger is serious, it is real, you can’t underestimate it,” Lavrov told the Interfax news agency.
Lavrov: 'Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia'
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said deliveries of Western weaponry to Ukraine mean that the Nato alliance is "in essence engaged in war with Russia”.
In an interview aired on Monday, he said: "These weapons will be a legitimate target for Russia’s military acting within the context of the special operation.”
Lavrov also told state television: "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war."
Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war is real
Lavrov also acknowledged there's a possibility of the conflict escalating to nuclear weapons, though he also sounded a hopeful note about the prospects of a peace accord.
Speaking to the Russian First Channel on Monday, he said Moscow wanted to avoid "artificially" elevated risks of such a conflict.
"This is our key position on which we base everything. The risks now are considerable," Lavrov said.
"I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real, And we must not underestimate it."
Lavrov also accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine of "pretending" to negotiate, calling him "a good actor”.
"If you watch attentively and read attentively what he says, you'll find a thousand contradictions," Russia’s top diplomat said.
The foreign minister said last week that Moscow was committed to avoiding a nuclear war.
On Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that Lavrov’s latest comments were an indication Russia had lost its "last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine”.
"Thus the talk of a ‘real’ danger of WWIII. This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine," he tweeted.
Days after the invasion began back on 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear forces to be on alert.
The US and its Nato allies have said they do not want direct military intervention in Ukraine, in order to avoid the risks of a Third World War.
Explosions reportedly heard in Russian city
Multiple explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 40km (24 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, according to a local official.
On social media app Telegram, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said he was woken at around 03:35 on Wednesday by the sound of an explosion.
He said that while drafting his social media post he heard another three loud booms.
Gladkov later said preliminary reports indicated an ammunition depot was on fire in a rural settlement, and "no casualties among the civilian population" had been reported.
Belarus has moved to make attempted acts of terrorism punishable by the death penalty after activists tried to sabotage parts of the railway network to make it harder for Russia to deploy forces into Ukraine for its invasion.
The Belarusian lower house of parliament approved the change to the criminal code in two readings, the Belta news agency reported. The change now needs backing from the upper house and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko before entering force.
Reuters quotes house speaker Vladimir Andreychenko, alluding to acts sabotage on the railway, saying “Destructive forces are continuing terrorist extremist activity by trying to rock the situation in Belarus, provoking domestic instability and conflicts.”
“Actions are being taken to disable railway equipment and tracks, objects of strategic importance,” He said. “There can be no justification for the actions of terrorists.”
Russia used close ally Belarus as a staging ground to launch its unsuccessful attempt to encircle Kyiv in the first phase of the invasion. Minsk denies direct involvement in the conflict.
Russian forces will collapse in weeks, predicts military expert
Russia's assault on Donbas has "sort of fizzled" and the battle for the region will be over in two to four weeks, says military expert Dr Mike Martin.
(https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1519944083233517571)
The war studies visiting fellow at King's College London says: "Basically the Russians are gonna run out of troops, and the Ukrainians are going to counterattack."
The Russians have squandered their one chance to take the region, he believes.
"They pulled all of these mauled units out of Kyiv, and then tried to reconstitute them for combat in the east," he explains.
But they were "bruised and damaged" by the battle for the Ukrainian capital and Russia failed to build them up and "do some bold manoeuvre".
And Martin says there has been a "major strategic shift" in the war, with the UK declaring its aim is to clear Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea.
He adds that UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is "wrong", however, to say this would take 10 years, insisting: "Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup."
And with the US announcing US$33bn (£26bn) of funding for Ukraine, "that is an extremely clear signal of intent", says Martin.
It also means Nato and the US have decided Vladimir Putin is bluffing about using nuclear weapons if Nato up the ante, he adds.
Russia attempts to trade civilians for military prisoners - Ukraine
Moscow has attempted to trade Ukrainian civilians for Russian military prisoners, according to Ukraine’s deputy prime minister - a move forbidden by the Geneva Convention.
Iryna Vereshchuk told the BBC that her office, which is responsible for negotiating prisoner swaps, declined and instructed Russia to send back Ukrainian civilians it had taken.
There is growing evidence that Russia has forcibly deported large numbers of civilians across the border since it invaded the country in February.
Ms Vereshchuk said they were being used as hostages.“That's why they captured all these hostages - civilians, women, employees of local councils, to try and use them," she said.
“We know there are more than a thousand hostages there - including almost 500 women,” she said. “We know they are in prisons and pre-trial detention centres in Kursk, in Briansk, in Riazan, in Rostov."
She said Russia had also dragged its feet in sending back women civilians. “We are extracting women almost with pliers,” she said. “Now we refuse to hold an exchange with no women in the list. That is how we try to somehow rescue our women and civilians.”
In the most recent exchange, nine civilians were sent back with severe injuries, including amputations performed in Russia.
“There were badly injured people in this exchange - amputated limbs, sepsis, other severe injuries," Ms Vereshchuk said.
“There were clear signs of torture," she said. "The stories they told us are terrible."
Spoiler: HAHAHA YES MUTINY MUTINY (click to show/hide)
Russia reroutes internet traffic in Kherson - NetBlocks
Russia has rerouted internet traffic in the Ukrainian region of Kherson through Russian communications infrastructure, according to the internet service disruption monitor NetBlocks.
The London-based organisation said it had tracked a near-total internet blackout across Kherson on Saturday.
It said this affected various Ukrainian providers.
But after connection was restored, various metrics showed traffic was going through Russia.
"Connectivity on the network has been routed via Russia’s internet instead of Ukrainian telecoms infrastructure and is hence likely now subject to Russian internet regulations, surveillance, and censorship," NetBlocks said on its website.
Russia claims it has taken full control of Kherson region.
I would also like more sources, but the claim is that Russian soldiers switched sides and are now fighting FOR Ukraine Against Russia.
But it's entirely possible those particular Russians were always soldiers for Ukraine. Or the Ukrainian Military did a lousy patch and repair job on their captured Russian stuff
For more than two months now, many Russians have openly supported the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine — choosing to close their eyes to executions and rapes, the shelling of peaceful cities, unthinkable destruction, and millions of people losing their homes. Journalist Shura Burtin spent several weeks talking to Russian citizens about their thoughts and feelings about the war. For Meduza, Burtin recounts how fear and a sense of humiliation defeated Russians’ humanity.
Russia practises nuclear-capable missile strikes, ministry says
Russia has said its forces practised simulated nuclear-capable missile strikes in the western enclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania along the Baltic Coast.
Russia practised simulated “electronic launches” of nuclear-capable Iskander mobile ballistic missile systems on Wednesday, the defence ministry said in a statement.
The Russian forces practised single and multiple strikes at targets imitating launchers of missile systems, airfields, protected infrastructure, military equipment and command posts of a mock enemy, AFP cited the statement as saying.
After performing the “electronic” launches, the military personnel carried out a manoeuvre to change their position in order to avoid “a possible retaliatory strike,” the defence ministry added.
The combat units also practised “actions in conditions of radiation and chemical contamination”.
The drills reportedly involved more than 100 servicemen.
Russia placed nuclear forces on high alert shortly after Putin sent troops to Ukraine on 24 February and the Russian President has hinted at deploying tactical nuclear weapons, warning of a “lightning fast” retaliation if the west directly intervenes in the Ukraine conflict.
Russia’s state television has attempted to make nuclear weapons use more palatable to the public, according to some who spoke to AFP.
“For two weeks now, we have been hearing from our television screens that nuclear silos should be opened,” Russian newspaper editor and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dmitry Muratov said.
Masha Alekhina, a member of Pussy Riot, escaped from Russia by disguising herself as a food courier, the New York Times reports.
Alekhina has been put under house arrest, but as the Kremlin sought to crack down on critics of the Ukraine war, her sentence was ordered to be carred out at a penal colony.
The Times reports:
She decided it was time to leave Russia — at least temporarily — and disguised herself as a food courier to evade the Moscow police who had been staking out the friend’s apartment where she was staying. She left her cellphone behind as a decoy and to avoid being tracked.
A friend drove her to the border with Belarus, and it took her a week to cross into Lithuania. In a studio apartment in Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital, she agreed to an interview to describe a dissident’s harrowing escape from Mr. Putin’s Russia.
“I was happy that I made it, because it was an unpredictable and big” kiss-off to the Russian authorities, Ms. Alyokhina said, using a less polite term. “I still don’t understand completely what I’ve done,” she admitted, dressed in black except for a fanny pack with a rainbow belt.
Her lawyer told the TASS news agency, “ I don’t know how she managed to do this, given the close surveillance that law enforcement agencies organized for her.” Thousands have fled Russia since the war began, as Russian president Vladimir Putin moved to crack down increasingly on those speaking out against the invasion.
Do you have a link to this story? I searched the Guardian's website and I'm not seeing anything more recent than March.
Cheers, thanks for the link brewer bob.
martinuzz, I tried yours but the Times doesn't want me reading without signing up, sorry.
Finland will apply for NATO membership, the Finnish president and the Finnish prime minister just stated.
Russia will be ‘forced to take military retaliatory steps’ in response to Finland's Nato bid
Russia will be forced to respond to Finland’s decision to join the Nato alliance, its foreign ministry said in a statement.
The ministry’s statement said:
“Finland joining Nato is a radical change in the country’s foreign policy.
Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to stop threats to its national security arising.”
So strange. My first thought was “Russian plant!”, but apparently this guy is connected to Turkey who has been one of Ukraine’s most important allies thanks to their Bayraktar drones.He is the president of Turkey.
What the hell even is a PKK terrorist? Why is that more important than letting Finland become Russia’s next target? It’s not like there isn’t a precedent for Russia attacking Finland.The PKK is the Kurdish labour party, which has been declared a terrorist organisation by Erdogan, and EU and US have also listed them as such.
So strange. My first thought was “Russian plant!”, but apparently this guy is connected to Turkey who has been one of Ukraine’s most important allies thanks to their Bayraktar drones.
What the hell even is a PKK terrorist? Why is that more important than letting Finland become Russia’s next target? It’s not like there isn’t a precedent for Russia attacking Finland.
That's also why I don't buy this thing I keep seeing from Chomsky and friends, the "US is using Ukrainians as cannon fodder" thing. What's the alternative? Cause it's not giving up, we all saw the plan for an occupied Ukraine and it's tantamount to genocide. The systematic eradication of "Ukraine" as anything more than a section of western Russia. Irrespective of America's involvement (Of course America's primarily happy to see Russia bleed over this, and yes that's not a good motivation) I don't see an alternative, you can't bow to a program like Russia's, it's a non-starter. But that's Chomsky, he's got some really good ideas and thoughts on things but he's always had a giant blind spot for non-western imperialism. And other similarly dumb people.Never liked Chomsky. America should not isolate itself in this current climate, it should stand up to Russia and China. Those who suggest otherwise might as well be Putinists in all but name, because they are playing right into his hands. Now is not the time for pacifism.
While I get your sentiment, you might want to dial it back a notch for the sake of forum rules.You saw nothing.
Russian president Vladimir Putin is likely to annex the occupied parts of southern and eastern Ukraine into Russia “in the coming months”, according to Katherine Lawlor and Mason Clark, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, warning that the move could then be used to threaten Ukraine and its allies with nuclear attack.
After annexation,
“He [Putin] will likely then state, directly or obliquely, that Russian doctrine permitting the use of nuclear weapons to defend Russian territory applies to those newly annexed territories.
Such actions would threaten Ukraine and its partners with nuclear attack if Ukrainian counteroffensives to liberate Russian-occupied territory continue. Putin may believe that the threat or use of nuclear weapons would restore Russian deterrence after his disastrous invasion shattered Russia’s conventional deterrent capabilities.
Putin’s timeline for annexation is likely contingent on the extent to which he understands the degraded state of the Russian military in Ukraine.
The Russian military has not yet achieved Putin’s stated territorial objectives of securing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is unlikely to do so.
If Putin understands his military weakness, he will likely rush annexation and introduce the nuclear deterrent quickly in an attempt to retain control of the Ukrainian territory that Russia currently occupies.
If Putin believes that Russian forces are capable of additional advances, he will likely delay the annexation in hopes of covering more territory with it.
In that case, his poor leadership and Ukrainian counteroffensives could drive the Russian military toward a state of collapse.
Putin could also attempt to maintain Russian attacks while mobilizing additional forces. He might delay announcing annexation for far longer in this case, waiting until reinforcements could arrive to gain more territory to annex.”
Ukraine and its allies therefore “likely have a narrow window of opportunity to support a Ukrainian counteroffensive into occupied Ukrainian territory before the Kremlin annexes that territory,” Lawlor and Clark write.
If Russia used nukes every time someone said they'd use nukes during this conflict, Asia would be a radioactive crater by now. People are a little too quick to drop the n word I think.By which you mean Russia being to quick to drop the n work, I assume.
I had no internet for a few days, so has Russia lost anymore generals since I was last here?
More on Finland’s announcement that it will apply for Nato membership, from our colleague, Jon Henley.
“Finland has formally confirmed it intends to join Nato, its president, Sauli Niinistö, has said, abandoning decades of military non-alignment in a historic decision triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
With neighbouring Sweden’s ruling party also holding a decisive meeting on whether to join the 30-member defensive alliance next week, Moscow’s onslaught on Ukraine looks set to usher in the expansion of Nato that Vladimir Putin claimed he wanted to prevent.
Finland shares an 810-mile (1,300km) border with Russia and, like Sweden, has maintained strict policies of neutrality then non-alignment since the end of the second world war, viewing Nato membership as a provocation of Moscow.
However, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has led to a profound change in its thinking, with public support for Nato accession trebling to about 75%. Polls show a majority of between 50 and 60% are also in favour in Sweden.
Three days after Finland’s leaders said it (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/finland-apply-join-nato-without-delay-president-pm) “must apply for Nato membership without delay”, the membership proposal is expected to be laid before parliament for ratification on Monday.
Niinistö called his Russian counterpart, Putin, on Saturday and informed him his country aimed to join Nato, in a conversation he described as “direct and straightforward”. He added: “Avoiding tensions was considered important.”
Russia has repeatedly warned Finland and Sweden against joining Nato, saying such a move would oblige it to “restore military balance” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/sweden-and-finland-agree-to-submit-nato-applications) by strengthening its defences in the Baltic Sea region, including by deploying nuclear weapons.
Putin responded to Niinistö’s call by saying Nato membership “would be a mistake, since there is no threat to Finland’s security”, according to a readout of the call released by the Kremlin.
After a cross-party Swedish parliamentary review on Friday said joining Nato would boost Sweden’s national security and help stabilise the Nordic region, leaders of the country’s ruling Social Democrats were also poised on Sunday to jettison the party’s longstanding opposition to Nato membership.
With a decision expected in the early evening, Swedish media reported (https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/finland-ger-natobesked) that – assuming Helsinki sends its application in on Monday – Stockholm is likely to follow suit as early as Tuesday, with the alliance set to launch the accession process immediately afterwards.
Read the full report here. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/15/finland-formally-confirms-intention-to-join-nato-russia)
The defenders at the Azovstal plant in Mariuspol are evidently surrendering. (https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1526718799658950656)
Fate of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers unclear as Azovstal resistance ends
Ukraine says there will be prisoner swap but some Russian officials have said forces could be tried or executed
The fate of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers who have ended weeks of resistance at the Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol remains unclear, after the fighters surrendered and were transferred to Russian-controlled territory.
Ukraine’s deputy defence minister said they would be swapped in a prisoner exchange, but some Russian officials said on Tuesday they could be tried and even executed. MPs in Russia’s State Duma said they would propose new laws that could derail prisoner exchanges of fighters who Moscow claims are “terrorists”.
Russian investigators have said they plan to interrogate the soldiers and could charge them with “crimes committed by the Ukrainian regime against the civilian population in south-east Ukraine”.
On Tuesday evening, seven buses carrying Ukrainian soldiers left the Azovstal plant in the port city and arrived at a former prison colony in the Russian-controlled town of Olenivka in Donetsk, Reuters reported.
Russia called the Azovstal operation a mass surrender, while the Ukrainian army said the soldiers defending the steel plant had “performed their combat task” and that the main goal was now to save their lives.
“Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive,” said the president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a video address.
It was inevitable that morale would break eventually under continual bombardment and phosphorous. Though they held out considerably longer than was thought possible; nevertheless, we can only hope the Russian action does not match the bluster
Unknown Russian perpetrators have conducted a series of Molotov cocktail attacks on military commissariats throughout the country this month, likely in protest of covert mobilisation, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict.
“Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements – Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District between May 4 and May 18.
Ukrainian General Staff main operations deputy chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week.
Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.”
There have been many reports of poor morale within Russian forces since the start of the war with some reportedly abandoning their equipment and fleeing the battlefield and others refusing to fight at all or even launching legal action against their deployment to Ukraine.
So apparently Italy is under pressure to end the war by any means necessary. (https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/05/18/stop-funding-ukraine-or-prepare-for-a-civil-war-the-italian-opposition-declares/)Reminds me of an MI5 caution that massive arms shipments should also be acknowledged to inevitably carry a risk that people are going to sell their weapons or lose them, with the nightmare situation being some terrorists getting a missile that can take down an airliner. But that's not a new problem (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGJH_-S_MGs).
I'll save my thoughts for the Emotional thread...
A report from the Institute for the Study of War mentions molotov attacks on military comissariats around Russia:That is an unexpected level of ballsinessQuote from: The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/19/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russian-use-of-laser-weapons-shows-invasion-a-failure-says-zelenskiy-live?page=with:block-6286c4758f08a8124b14f57a#block-6286c4758f08a8124b14f57a)Unknown Russian perpetrators have conducted a series of Molotov cocktail attacks on military commissariats throughout the country this month, likely in protest of covert mobilisation, the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest assessment of the conflict.
“Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements – Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District between May 4 and May 18.
Ukrainian General Staff main operations deputy chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week.
Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.”
There have been many reports of poor morale within Russian forces since the start of the war with some reportedly abandoning their equipment and fleeing the battlefield and others refusing to fight at all or even launching legal action against their deployment to Ukraine.
The ISW assessment can be found here. (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19)
That is an unexpected level of ballsinessI know right, Russian anti-Putin partisans are my heroes forever.
I'm sure they already think I'm a traitor - Russian diplomat
Boris Bondarev has spoken to the BBC's Russia Editor Steve Rosenberg about why he became the country's most senior diplomat to defect over the war.
"The reason is that I strongly disagree and disapprove of what my government is doing and has been doing at least since February, and I don’t want to be associated with that any longer," he said.
Bondarev said it was a case of when, not if, he was going to quit. "I don’t see any alternative."
Despite being shocked by the Russian invasion, he said he does not believe his feelings are widespread in the foreign ministry.
"I think most people, the majority of them, are following the propaganda and what their superiors tell them.
"When you work in the ministry you work in a hierarchy, so you must obey what your superior tells you. And for many years any critical approach has been erased from the ministry mostly," he said.
Although he said his decision to leave would not likely change things, he said "it may be one little brick into the bigger wall which would eventually be built".
Asked if he believes he will be considered a traitor, Bondarev said: "I think they are already considering me as such."
So, I decided it's probably useless.When someone says "insufficient evidence" now, they're almost certainly not open to rational arguments. By far the best way to convince someone like that is if he would spend some time in Ukraine, get to know some people there and befriend them. Our opinion is all too often based on emotion and only look for some rational arguments as an afterthought.
Thanks for the help.
I at least have more information.
Wagner Group fighters accused of murdering civilians in Ukraine
Two alleged Wagner Group fighters from Belarus have been accused of murdering civilians near Kyiv, making them the first international mercenaries to face war crimes charges in Ukraine.
Ukrainian prosecutors late on Tuesday released the names and photographs of eight men wanted for alleged war crimes – including murder and torture – in the village of Motyzhyn. Several are believed to have fought in Syria.
They say five are Russian soldiers, one is a Russian mercenary with the Wagner Group and the final two are Belarusian mercenaries.
The Guardian has previously reported on the alleged involvement of the soldiers named by prosecutors on Tuesday in the systematic torture and murder of civilians in Ukraine including the head of the village council and her husband and son.
There have been reports of Wagner fighters on the ground in Ukraine, but these are the first charges against allegedly serving mercenaries, and the first non-Russians charged.
Established in 2014 to support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, Wagner is allegedly funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a powerful businessman who is closely linked to Vladimir Putin and has faced western sanctions.
Russia has used paid fighters to bolster its forces since the start of the war. It was estimated to have deployed between 10,000 and 20,000 mercenaries from Syria, Libya and elsewhere, including Wagner Group fighters, in its offensive in Ukraine’s Donbas region, a European official said last month.
A survivor had previously described to the Guardian how Russian soldiers who were perpetrating a sadistic killing spree lasting days in the village had described Ukraine as a “fairytale” compared with Syria.
Prosecutors said Sergey Vladimirovich Sazanov 51, born in the town of Rechitsa in Belarus, was one of about 300 Wagner mercenaries who participated in a February 2018 offensive in the Syrian province of Deir ez-Zor. They cited the open source research group InformNapalm.
Another man, Alexander Alexandrovich Stupnitsky, 32, a native of Orsha in Belarus, was identified as a liaison officer for the assault platoon of the Wagner Group’s 1st reconnaissance and assault company.
The third man identified as a Wagner member, Sergey Sergeevich Sazonov, 33, was born in Kaliningrad and is allegedly the driver of the Wagner Group command vehicle.
Read the full report by Lorenzo Tondo, Isobel Koshiw, Emma Graham-Harrison and Pjotr Sauer. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/25/wagner-group-fighters-accused-murdering-civilians-ukraine-war-crimes-belarus)
[2] The obvious translated phrase was a bit of "eats, shoots and leaves", but I presumed he released bombs, and didn't get bombs dropped on his aircraft.
Are we sure the WW2 photo is genuine?Seems to be. It's featured in a number of wiki articles, and at least one aviation museum's webpage. Wiki sources NARA and the FDR library for the photo. There's at least one more photo of the incident too, from a different angle.
and its subtext actually says 1000lbersThe combat box article has a source claiming it was a 500lb bomb.
The legal report, signed by more than 30 leading legal scholars and genocide experts, accuses the Russian state of violating several articles of the United Nations Genocide Convention. It warns there is a serious and imminent risk of genocide in Ukraine, backing the accusations with a long list of evidence including examples of mass killings of civilians, forced deportations and dehumanizing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric used by top Russian officials.
[...]
Under the UN Genocide Convention, its signatories have a legal obligation to prevent genocide (http://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/politics/genocide-russia-invasion-ukraine-what-matters/index.html) -- and the report is urging the international community to act.
"We have no time at all, we believe that there is a very serious risk of genocide," Ibrahim said. "Every country that is a signatory to the Genocide Convention, and that's 151 countries including the Russian Federation, every country has to do whatever it can to put a stop to this, otherwise they will also be in breach of the convention."
Are we sure the WW2 photo is genuine?https://ww2db.com/photo.php?list=sp&sp=series&image_id=17715
The photo quality of the bomber is quite good for the time period, and the silhouette of the bomb seems strangely uniform.
Meduza’s sources with ties to the Kremlin and the federal government say talk about “the future after Putin” is increasingly common among Russia’s elites. “It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they’re plotting a conspiracy, but there’s an understanding (or a wish) that he won’t be governing the state maybe in the foreseeable future,” explained one individual. “The president screwed up, but he might still fix everything later, coming to some agreement [with Ukraine and the West],” added another source, admitting that some Kremlin officials are quietly discussing Putin’s potential successors. (The list supposedly includes Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, National Security Council Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, and First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko.)
If Putin dies tomorrow, who would replace him? Excerpt from an article on Meduza (https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/24/almost-nobody-is-happy-with-putin):QuoteMeduza’s sources with ties to the Kremlin and the federal government say talk about “the future after Putin” is increasingly common among Russia’s elites. “It’s not that they want to overthrow Putin right now, or that they’re plotting a conspiracy, but there’s an understanding (or a wish) that he won’t be governing the state maybe in the foreseeable future,” explained one individual. “The president screwed up, but he might still fix everything later, coming to some agreement [with Ukraine and the West],” added another source, admitting that some Kremlin officials are quietly discussing Putin’s potential successors. (The list supposedly includes Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, National Security Council Deputy Chairman and former President Dmitry Medvedev, and First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko.)
Russian general killed in eastern Ukraine, Russian state media reporter says
LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - A Russian general was killed in eastern Ukraine, a Russian state media journalist said on Sunday, adding to the string of high-ranking military casualties sustained by Moscow.
The report, published on the Telegram messaging app by state television reporter Alexander Sladkov, did not say precisely when and where Major General Roman Kutuzov was killed.
There was no immediate comment from the Russian defence ministry.
We should make a drinking game out of the dead Russian generals, take a swig every time one dies.One cannot condone reckless alcoholism
Army ranks are a fucking crime against reason, I swear
Army ranks are a fucking crime against reason, I swear
Their rank structure generally follows the same pattern as everybody else -
It is indeed interesting to note that someone is paying for ads to promote the Russian narrative. And probably not cheaply either.The proper summary, for maybe anybody who TL;DR;ed my above post, should probably be that I'm not actually surprised that it's happening. It's typical of these days with any political issue. More surprised that one leaked into my sphere of viewing. (Even though I know I tend to get the 'targetting on a budget' stuff, to land on my ill-defined area of alleged interest.)
"Tokaev [the president of Kazakhstan], right in Putin's face, said he doesn't recognize the DPR and LNR, and also called them quasi-states" (https://www.reddit.com/r/liberta/comments/velusu/токаев_в_лицо_путину_не_признал_днр_и_лнр_ещё_и/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share)Interesting that my phone won't let me view it without the Reddit app.
News not mine.
My understanding is that the central asian republics, despite ties with russia, aren't exactly thrilled about recent developments.
Kind of starting to sound like the entire world's going to shit.
Kind of starting to sound like the entire world's going to shit.
So, business as usual then?
Kind of starting to sound like the entire world's going to shit.
So, business as usual then?
No, no, no.
Before it just looked like it was going to shit, now it sounds like it is. Totally different.
Yes.Kind of starting to sound like the entire world's going to shit.
So, business as usual then?
No, no, no.
Before it just looked like it was going to shit, now it sounds like it is. Totally different.
Ah, I assume next it'll taste like it is going to shit?
A Ukrainian goat has been hailed a national hero after it triggered a string of Russian grenades around a hospital in Zaporizhzhia, injuring at least 40 Russian soldiers.
Russian forces were setting up a tripwire and had pinned grenades around the edge of a local hospital in the village of Kinski Rozdory, placing the trap as a “circular defence”, according to Ukraine’s chief intelligence directorate.
The goat, who had escaped from a farm, is said to have headed straight for the boobytrap, with the Russian munitions exploding in a chain reaction, injuring dozens of soldiers who were waiting in ambush.
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/bfe7851c6201a112d10f9c797570a5b4755e39c4/0_0_8640_5760/master/8640.jpg?width=620&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=fd0ae1c6c94a0d6bf20fbe4497e080db)
A goat on a destroyed Russian tank on display in Saint Michaels Square in Kyiv, Ukraine.
Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
Ukraine’s defence intelligence said:
“As a result of the goat’s ‘chaotic’ movements, the animal ‘disposed of’ several grenades. As a result of a chain reaction, several [Russians] sustained injuries of varying degrees of severity.”
At least 40 Russian soldiers are thought to have been injured. The condition of the animal is not currently known.
The goat has since been hailed as “the Goat of Kyiv”, a reference to the mythical pilot, the Ghost of Kyiv, who is credited to have downed as many as 40 enemy planes during Russia’s invasion of the capital.
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/630651788391088129/989285306844971118/FB_IMG_1655934389029.jpg)
...yeah, goats have always been the bane of pretty much anyone that places wires.Ain't that the truth, I've yet to see a fence that could stand up against a determined goat.
Turkey lifts objections to Finland and Sweden’s Nato bid
Ankara had previously blocked the Nordic countries from joining the alliance over concerns about arms exports and terrorism
A last minute agreement has been reached between Turkey, Finland and Sweden to allow the two Nordic countries to become Nato members on the eve of the military alliance’s summit in Madrid. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/28/uk-calls-extra-vigilance-china-ahead-nato-summit)
Nato said a trilateral deal had been reached at a meeting between Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, (https://www.theguardian.com/world/recep-tayyip-erdogan) President Sauli Niinistö of Finland and the Swedish prime minister, Magdalena Andersson, in the Spanish capital.
After a period of intensive negotiations, Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary general, said on Tuesday evening: “I am pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland (https://www.theguardian.com/world/finland) and Sweden to join Nato.”
“Turkey, Finland and Sweden (https://www.theguardian.com/world/sweden) have signed a memorandum that addresses Turkey’s concerns, including around arms exports and the fight against terrorism,” he added.
The Nordic countries said they confirmed that the PKK was a proscribed organisation and, in a key concession, would “not provide support” to the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union party (PYD) and People’s Protection Units (YPG) groups that have been active in the fight against Islamic State in Syria. Finland and Sweden affirmed in the deal there were no national arms embargoes relating to sales to Turkey and all three countries said they would work together on extradition requests.
Unfortunately, some people are gonna get fucked
Yes, this seems to be a reoccurring theme with Kurds, no matter what.I never realised how true this was until I was reading Xenophon writing about how on their march through the mountains they were attacked by Kurds, who mistook them for forces loyal to the Persian Emperor, with aforementioned Emperor trying to conquer the Kurds on a perennial basis
2,400 years of "will you stop invading FOR ONE SECOND"
Now mistake me if I am correcting, but wasn't XenophonXenophon was working for Cyrus the younger, who was a claimant of the Persian throne who died in battle against his reigning brother Atarxerces after Atarxerces did some palace intrigue to remove Cyrus from the line of succession. Cyrus the younger is named after Cyrus the great, who depending on who you believe either died in battle against an Iranian nomad Empress or died peacefully in his sleep. It is somewhat annoying that you can find constant references to Kurdish tribes (or indeed, what people presume are Kurdish tribes since the names are similar) always mentioned on the peripheries of Mesopotamian empires but never any further elaboration besides "oh yeah those guys live over there and they fight fiercely." It's like the Georgian issue where most historical references to Georgians is just "these guys are crazy don't mess with them, anyways how about them olive oil prices" but stretched out over 3,000 yearsloytal toworking for Darius until he was assassinated by the Rogues' leader Luthor?
To be fair, up until Antonio Banderas invented travelling to the people you were writing about to get a first hand account, "oh yeah those guys live over there and they fight fiercely" was pretty much the total sum of people-ology, at least Roman suchThat got a sensible chuckle out of me
No, they're not properly using infamtry to screen ahead for AT units. Tanks have needed an infantry screen since 1917 or so - the onky real difference is that ATGMs have replaced towed AT guns that replaced AT rifles that replaced shoving the bullet into the case backwards.We apparently have different definitions of cannon fodder.
That has nothing to do with "cannon fodder".
Russia decided to leave ISS in 2024
https://www.reuters.com/technology/russia-has-not-signaled-space-station-withdrawal-nasa-us-official-says-2022-07-26/
and as their old one (Mir) had burned in the atmosphere, build another station
I guess the end of that level of cooperation that was above petty nations politics moved the post cold war hope of "possible Star Trek unified humanity - like future" back into cold war "possible Star Wars let's laser shoot at each other-like future" ...
Remember that Russian words mean nothing. They lie. Always
It is the Biden administration that is directly responsible for all rocket attacks approved by Kyiv on residential areas and civilian infrastructure facilities in settlements of Donbass and other regions that caused mass deaths of civilians.
A few days ago, the Grey Zone (RSOTM) Telegram channel posted photos of a visit to the so-called Wagner HQ in the Donbas (Popasna). Prigozhin may have been there.
The photos were apparently easy to geolocate. Ukraine destroyed it in a HIMARS strike today. https://t.co/dZCh3oqhpH
Conscripts have been deceived or coerced into the war zone, soldiers have not been provided with normal food or medical care, contract servicemen have been deliberately violating every military regulation in order to be dismissed from service, and parents cannot obtain any information on whether their children have been taken prisoner or killed in action. From the Russian citizens' complaints one can also learn about the looting and atrocities perpetrated by Russian soldiers.
"When on April 8 GRADs started shelling their positions, my parents got down on the floor, and after waiting the shelling out, went to a hamlet nearby to wait out the alarming situation. The next day, when my mother returned home in the morning, she saw atrocities in our garage ... a large tank knocked out our gate, demolished a huge slab that served as our fence, demolished a huge hangar gate in the garage, which later fell on the cars that were in the garage, <...> they stole spare parts and tools worth 200,000 rubles, they even stole small change from our car, and a condom from my brother's car, tell me, are they even human?"
"We are really facing the “lawlessness” on the part of military unit commanders - my friend's grandson came back wounded and told how they were beaten by commanders, who forced them to sign contracts (I will not provide any details at the request of my friend, her daughter and son). Please speed up investigation of the already known facts, to expose those who have been fraudulently sending conscripts to certain death, and make all of them stand trial, regardless of their rank and position, according to the laws of war."
“My son served in the Belgorod region; he hasn't been in touch since February 20. I have learned that the commander won’t let the conscripts go, threatening to charge them with desertion. Everyone in the military unit knows about it, they forced our children to sign the contracts, the signatures of those who refused were forged”.
"My husband is serving under contract in military unit 62295 and is currently involved in the special operation. He was wounded and ended up in hospital; They not only haven’t offered him proper assistance, they‘ve been performing MRI scans at the expense of soldiers themselves; they keep the results of those scans to themselves and make wrong diagnoses. Even those with obvious health problems are going to be sent back to the front."
"He was first wounded (a contusion, shrapnel wound of soft tissues of the head, 2nd degree frostbite) on March 7, 2022. He spent 2 days in a field hospital. No treatment or medical examination was offered, the fact that he had a contusion and a shrapnel head wound was not registered at the hospital due to the large number of wounded patients. Two days later he was sent to his unit for further participation in the special military operation, despite incessant headaches, partial loss of hearing and vision."
Didn't the EU or America or something say something about getting involved if a nuclear plant went up like Chernobyl? It'd be interesting to see if they'll stand by that if it does.
Ah, Russia's usual tactic: Victim blaming.That seems tame by Russia's standards.
"It's your fault your phone got smashed when you tried taking it off me when I stole it!"
My rough guess is they'll probably scuttle something if it looks like they'll lose control of the plant.More or less my analysis. Zaporizhzhia plant won't be leaving Russian hands in one piece, if the Russians can do anything about it.
FSB (🇷🇺Federal Security Service) published new photos of a suspect in the murder of Dugina.(https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/FPTT2yOvBaBYMiZDDEcbouyCoHjOsaeB8l40YoqHnRg/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/FbZKUZ_WYAMbCpC.jpg)
(NO, THIS IS NOT A JOKE)
https://twitter.com/KarinaVinnikova/status/1564519639761256450?t=iuYeBOTWMMZMDGniutwvZA&s=19Quote from: Karina VinnikovaFSB (🇷🇺Federal Security Service) published new photos of a suspect in the murder of Dugina.(https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net/external/FPTT2yOvBaBYMiZDDEcbouyCoHjOsaeB8l40YoqHnRg/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/FbZKUZ_WYAMbCpC.jpg)
(NO, THIS IS NOT A JOKE)
Courtesy of a friend on Discord. ☠️🏴
I really hope that photo where Mr. Pirate is "hiding" in the bushes is taken just moments before he planted the car bomb.It's probably after. He's clearly armed with a rifle, just in case the car bomb doesn't work.
Gotta watch out for those deadly pirate bush snipers.I really hope that photo where Mr. Pirate is "hiding" in the bushes is taken just moments before he planted the car bomb.It's probably after. He's clearly armed with a rifle, just in case the car bomb doesn't work.
With all the industrial properties severely devalued by the war, now is the time to buy oligarchs' enterprises and transform them to workers' cooperatives.
I've been thinking that postwar Ukraine is the greatest platform for a new kind of democracy that the world has not yet seen, and I want to work to make that happen.
Уже 35 муниципалитетов! Сбор подписей муниципальных депутатов за отставку Путина продолжается.
I saw the leader of Cechnya was very loudly not questioning Putin's authority. Things are getting interesting, which is worrying.
It's also making me wonder if this is gonna turn out to be Putin's Falklands. At the bare minimum, the totally-not-a-war was as much of a master stroke as a slug is a vertebrate.
It's also making me wonder if this is gonna turn out to be Putin's Falklands.This is one of the few times I'd cheerfully suggest that it should hopefully be "Putin's Las Malvinas", instead.
https://mobile.twitter.com/kseniathorstrom/status/1569360887688855553?cxt=HHwWgoCwsbPavscrAAAAhttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-council-faces-dissolution-after-call-putins-removal-2022-09-13/Quote from: Ксения ТорстремУже 35 муниципалитетов! Сбор подписей муниципальных депутатов за отставку Путина продолжается.
"Already 35 municipalities! The collection of signatures of deputats (IDK how to translate, rank below gubernator) for the resignation of Putin continues."
Big if true. Apparently some independent news sites reported on this.
A group of St Petersburg local politicians who called for President Vladimir Putin to be sacked over the war in Ukraine faces the likely dissolution of their district council following a judge's ruling on Tuesday, one of the deputies said.
So Russia isn't turning out to be Argentina in the Falklands war.I doubt it
Russia's turning out to be Russia in WWI
USSR MKII folks?
Fair enough, I keep confusing the two of them.
Spoiler: HERE IT COMES (click to show/hide)
Courtesy of the CDDA server.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Civil unrest seems to be brewing in some place called Dagestan.Spoiler: HERE IT COMES (click to show/hide)
Courtesy of the CDDA server.HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I can't see it! What's the funni? I wanna know!
Civil unrest seems to be brewing in some place called Dagestan.Spoiler: HERE IT COMES (click to show/hide)
Courtesy of the CDDA server.HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
I can't see it! What's the funni? I wanna know!
#Russia A shooting was reported at a military recruitment office in the Irkutsk region. The head of the recruitment commission was wounded. It happened in the city of Ust-Ilimsk. This video shows the aftermath. There is a video of the actual shooting, too: a man shots from a gun
Who knew a Rebellion would start on the CDDA forum, of all places. Well, they want to overthrow Putin, not Kevin, so I guess it's ok...rofl
Any male Russian of military conscription age should make haste with leaving Russia.
There's rumour that Russia is preparing to shut down the borders to prevent men from leaving the country.
Who knew a Rebellion would start on the CDDA forum, of all places. Well, they want to overthrow Putin, not Kevin, so I guess it's ok...
Also, for people who were a little too excited about protests in Dagestan. My first rule of thumb for Sunday protests is to wait for Monday and see how many people value the protest enough to risk being fired from their job. Looks like, in this case, it is not many.
I'm getting flashbacks lmfao. Though from my interactions with it, the mods on the community server are very anti-Putin so it's fine. Let's not drag this dead horse here to beat it, though.
If it did, it was internal because I didn't see anything on the devcord either, also ZhilkinSerg isn't active on the Discord I and KT are talking about anyways.I'm getting flashbacks lmfao. Though from my interactions with it, the mods on the community server are very anti-Putin so it's fine. Let's not drag this dead horse here to beat it, though.
Fair but definitely should not be forgotten. I'm not aware if it caused a shitstorm over there or not but it sounds like it did last time it came up, given things here on the forums had been relatively calm when the topic came up.
On 27 September 2022, unexplained large pressure drops have been reported in both of the NS1 and one of the 2 NS2 pipelines, as well as a located gas leak in Danish waters from NS2 late on 26 September. Berliner Zeitung newspaper has asked if it is sabotage.[14]Is this Putin's middle finger to someone specific within the EU? If it happened to the Danish end of both pipelines, what effect could that have on local fisheries compared to fisheries closer to Russia? Fish migration and spawning?
Tangential to the conflict, it is reported that Nordstream 2 has sprung a leak. Not even operating, but had gas pumped into it anyway, it seems to have sprung a leak off the coast of Denmark.German media report, based on assessment by security specialists, that the leak must have been caused by professional sabotage by 'a state', saying that the damage can only have been caused by divers and special units.
Which is concerning, if (probably) entirely due to trivial incompetence/ill-luck. That at least didn't happen with a fully in-use Nordstream 2, I suppose, plus might help put another nail in the coffin for any hoped restoration of full exports even by the other pipelines.
German media report, based on assessment by security specialists, that the leak must have been caused by professional sabotage by 'a state', saying that the damage can only have been caused by divers and special units.Certainly, as I wrote, that was at the back of my mind ("... (probably) ..."). The Russians (also the Americans, certainly, but not sure if they have any decent motives in this case) do possess and have apparently exercised the ability to interfere with submarine infrastructure of various kinds, and would find it fairly simple to knock a few holes in the pipe. Or find it somewhat less simple to do something else (carefully cut into the pipe and 'block it', or even splice a secret remote-operation valve-section for various conceivable reasons) and thus mess the intended operation up and have to just scarper. But the first reports I heard were just (one) Nordstream 2 being affected.
IMO, Gazprom\Russia found a way to avoid paying fines for breaking contracts for not supplying Gas this winter.
Here's another horrible theory; Putin might start pushing gas into the now-broken pipes, with intent to force someone to attack "Russian soil" to stop the ecological damage.You know he could just vent gas at the wells if he wanted, right?
Here's another horrible theory; Putin might start pushing gas into the now-broken pipes, with intent to force someone to attack "Russian soil" to stop the ecological damage.Which works until the EU's actually at war with Russia. Even if we didn't go onto their soil we'd play merry hell with long range missile strikes, ship sinking, and probably going into Ukraine and kicking Russia out.
If Russia is attacked, there probably are Russian war-time laws that would give him stronger "martial law" rights over his immediate rivals who want that "return to normal", meaning he could shoot them in public as "traitors".
IMO, Gazprom\Russia found a way to avoid paying fines for breaking contracts for not supplying Gas this winter.Sure, by supplying Oil to the territorial waters of their customers!
In Tuva, southern Siberia, the authorities will give your family a sheep if you sign up for military service, the independent media outlet Holod reported.
Ukraine's claiming that Lyman's been encircled, with 5-5.5k Russian troops now trapped.
An interesting theory that I've heard is that there are people in Russia really antsing for a "return to normal" with an end to the war so they can go back to selling gas over Nordstream and getting rich. And what Putin was intending to do is to remove that as an option entirely, so they would quiet down.Nordstream 2 is actually not that damaged so they could resume gas sales.
Ukraine's claiming that Lyman's been encircled, with 5-5.5k Russian troops now trapped.
Some Ukrainian folks claim that. There is no official source (Arestovich IS not an official source) saying that. Ukraine rarely claims anything of this nature.
5K is likely an exaggerated claim. 500-2K is far more probable
Propaganda works both ways, usually you take both sides claim, divide by 2 and you're "probably" not far from the reality.Some say the sun rises in the east. Others say the sun rises in the west. The truth is usually in the middle, so the sun probably rises in the north.
But it's something difficult to do when a side claims there's no loss and the other side claims everyone is dead.
Propaganda works both ways, usually you take both sides claim, divide by 2 and you're "probably" not far from the reality.Some say the sun rises in the east. Others say the sun rises in the west. The truth is usually in the middle, so the sun probably rises in the north.
But it's something difficult to do when a side claims there's no loss and the other side claims everyone is dead.
Even as of right now, the magnetically north pole is at the south and the magnetically south pole is in the north, you know...I'd say it's big news to find out the Earth has been upside down the entire time.
But we digress! Given that this is the News thread, guys/gals/etc.
Ukraine-Russia Peace:
- Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.
- Crimea formally part of Russia, as it has been since 1783 (until Khrushchev’s mistake).
- Water supply to Crimea assured.
- Ukraine remains neutral.
Strange coming from the guy that gave free IT support to the Ukrainian Army. Less strange when you read articles that it was basically useless.
I thought the US government paid him for the Starlink terminals. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Ukrainian forces captured a few Russian modern T-90 tanks, completely intact.
I betcha the USA can't wait to have one of those shipped to them to have it turned inside out.
Ukrainian forces captured a few Russian modern T-90 tanks, completely intact.
I betcha the USA can't wait to have one of those shipped to them to have it turned inside out.
I mean...it's almost a 30-year-old tank. Pretty sure US Intelligence knows most of what it needs about it already.
Isn't it nice of Russia to give Ukraine all that equipment they don't really know how to use or properly maintain.By and large they have historically used the same equipment. Of course they know how to use and properly maintain it.
Haha. According to the Wall Street Journal, the largest heavy weapons supplier of Ukraine is........ Russia!It's heartwarming to see so much Russian solidarity with their Ukrainian friends in such a time of crisis. Jokes aside, I do wonder how much equipment was just deliberately abandoned in a useable state by sympathetic conscripts
Since the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian forces have captured 460 tanks, 92 howitzers, 448 mechanized infantry vehicles, 195 armoured vehicles, and 44 rocket launch vehicles.
Elon Musk spoke to Putin before tweeting Ukraine peace plan - report
Elon Musk spoke directly to Vladimir Putin before tweeting his peace plan to end the war in Ukraine that would have seen territory permanently handed over to Russia, according to a report.
In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer claimed Musk told him that the Russian president was “prepared to negotiate” if Crimea remained in Russian hands.
Putin also reportedly insisted to the Tesla CEO that Ukraine would have to accept permanent neutrality and recognise Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be reached “no matter what”, including the possible use of nuclear weapons if Ukraine invaded Crimea.
Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome”.
Following the alleged conversation with Putin, Musk posted a Twitter poll with his suggestions for ending the war in Ukraine.
Musk argued that to reach peace, Russia should be allowed to keep the Crimea Peninsula that it seized in 2014.
He also proposed holding votes in parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia that the Kremlin says it is annexing. “Russia leaves if that is will of the people,” he said.
The Guardian reports that Elon Musk spoke with Putin before his "peace" plan tweet:Quote from: The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/oct/11/russia-ukraine-war-putin-live-news-missile-strikes-g7-zelenskiy-crisis-talks-latest-updates?page=with:block-634595218f08253e9d6591d3#block-634595218f08253e9d6591d3)Elon Musk spoke to Putin before tweeting Ukraine peace plan - report
Elon Musk spoke directly to Vladimir Putin before tweeting his peace plan to end the war in Ukraine that would have seen territory permanently handed over to Russia, according to a report.
In a mailout sent to Eurasia Group subscribers, Ian Bremmer claimed Musk told him that the Russian president was “prepared to negotiate” if Crimea remained in Russian hands.
Putin also reportedly insisted to the Tesla CEO that Ukraine would have to accept permanent neutrality and recognise Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.
According to Bremmer, Musk said Putin told him these goals would be reached “no matter what”, including the possible use of nuclear weapons if Ukraine invaded Crimea.
Bremmer wrote that Musk told him that “everything needed to be done to avoid that outcome”.
Following the alleged conversation with Putin, Musk posted a Twitter poll with his suggestions for ending the war in Ukraine.
Musk argued that to reach peace, Russia should be allowed to keep the Crimea Peninsula that it seized in 2014.
He also proposed holding votes in parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia that the Kremlin says it is annexing. “Russia leaves if that is will of the people,” he said.
Why do people like Elon anyway, he seems like a dick.
There must be a story about how Musk got into that conversation... It is not like anyone else is talking about their conversations with Putin.
Russian agent.
Elon Musk also did cut Starlink for Ukraine, as soon as it became relevant due to infrastructure failure. Ukrainian are smart to not have approved it for military purpouses, and I hope the rest of the world will remember it....they won't
Elon Musk also did cut Starlink for Ukraine, as soon as it became relevant due to infrastructure failure. Ukrainian are smart to not have approved it for military purpouses, and I hope the rest of the world will remember it.
Elon Musk also did cut Starlink for Ukraine, as soon as it became relevant due to infrastructure failure. Ukrainian are smart to not have approved it for military purpouses, and I hope the rest of the world will remember it.
As far as I know, he didn't cut Starlink for all of Ukraine... He cut Starlink for Crimea and this stops us from using toys like this:Spoiler (click to show/hide)
(Apparently with the ship-to-base live data link connected through to its onboard communications, they've been talking to other vessels in 'their' vicinity that don't even realise it's not manned! Rather interesting development, albeit in the peaceful/civil sphere.)
Who'd have guessed Musk's plan the whole time was to use peoples suffering to grab as much cash as he could.
For that matter everyone's losing their heads over Macron's statement, and I dont get why, given that several guys in NATO/EU have already said that if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine the response will be enormous, but not nuclear.
You're (EucherJack, not Vector) wrong
1. The claims that the response will be "enormous, but not nuclear" are not official statements from the decision makers. They're deliberate leaks from people who are high up but not the folks making the final decisions. An official statement would come from the White House or 10 Dowling Street directly - those are the places that control most of the NATO nuclear arsenal. Official policy statement is deliberately vague.
2. NATO is far, far short of the limits of non-nuclear warfare. Possible responses range from "every major Russian military base near the Ukrainian border explodes" to "all-out conventional alpha strike that cripples the command, control, and military of the entire country". The potential "proportionate response" range is immense even without nukes.
I don't buy #2. Putin isn't just going to sit there and let Russia get invaded or attacked. That leads directly to Nuclear response. Just ask him, he'll tell you.
There may be wiggle room, but I think we're close to the celling. More importantly, I think Putin thinks we're close to the celling, and it's his twitchy trigger finger that matters.
I think you give Putin too much credit here. Nobody actually uses Logic to make decisions...I don't buy #2. Putin isn't just going to sit there and let Russia get invaded or attacked. That leads directly to Nuclear response. Just ask him, he'll tell you.
There may be wiggle room, but I think we're close to the celling. More importantly, I think Putin thinks we're close to the celling, and it's his twitchy trigger finger that matters.
"If I do A, they'll do B and that will force me to do C. I don't want to do C so I won't do A" is a fundamental part of the balance of terror. A single nuclear strike in Ukraine wouldn't necessarily justify a nuclear response, but it would absolutely justify a devastating conventional response, and a devastating conventional response would probably cross thresholds that Russia's insisted would invite a nuclear response. As long as "massive conventional response" is on the table, it is a major deterrent in the chain of escalation.
For that matter everyone's losing their heads over Macron's statement, and I dont get why, given that several guys in NATO/EU have already said that if Russia uses nukes in Ukraine the response will be enormous, but not nuclear.
HA.
But aren't we already at the peak of what we can do without nuclear war?
Thus, is this NOT an admission that Putin can nuke Ukraine without consequences?
Like, is Putin going to let the West overthrow him with conventional arms without pulling out his nukes?
The West has clearly sold out the Ukraine. Putin has been told he CAN nuke Ukraine, so he WILL nuke Ukraine. And the West won't do shit.
They're fucking telling him that!
(my apologies for getting so Emotional in the News thread, but I think people are missing this point. And if I'm wrong, for the love of God TELL ME!!)
NATO has no need of using nukes to bring Russia into the stone age. Especially when a huge chunk of the Russian army is already severely damaged. Of course, a massive conventional strike on Russia may result in Russian nuclear response but then the usual rules apply.
NATO is so ahead in conventional weapons that it has no need to start with nukes. Cruise missile strikes and a few squadrons of F22 and F35 will destroy a huge majority of Russian air-defense on day 1. Then fleets of older stuff like F16 will destroy everything military-related and Russia will have a choice of
I would caution against overconfidence in NATO's military power - a similar overconfidence in Russian military power is partly to blame for the Ukraine invasion after all - but on the other hand I don't really doubt that the larger and wealthier NATO could prevail against a Russia which is getting little or no aid from the international community.
I would caution against overconfidence in NATO's military power - a similar overconfidence in Russian military power is partly to blame for the Ukraine invasion after all - but on the other hand I don't really doubt that the larger and wealthier NATO could prevail against a Russia which is getting little or no aid from the international community.
I would caution against overconfidence in NATO's military power - a similar overconfidence in Russian military power is partly to blame for the Ukraine invasion after all - but on the other hand I don't really doubt that the larger and wealthier NATO could prevail against a Russia which is getting little or no aid from the international community.
The weapons Ukraine is tearing Russia apart with are NATO's leftovers.
I'm waiting for the moment when we find out that all Russia's nukes were cardboard cut outs the entire time.
The weapons Ukraine is tearing Russia apart with are NATO's leftovers.It's also a bit worse for Russia than that. A lot of NATO's leftovers are being supplied to Poland and the Baltic states who in turn send their leftovers to Ukraine. So it's more like NATO's leftover hand me downs. We've seen stuff like the supplying of contemporary anti-air missile defences and artillery in response to Russia's escalation, but NATO still has much more room to escalate conventionally, like sending Ukraine modern jets. Or sending NATO troops, jets and planes themselves to target Russian assets
To be clear, the official reason of not sending more sophisticated NATO equipment was because it would take more time to train the Ukrainian troops. The tanks and airplanes that Ukraine is using are mostly better-maintained older Soviet/Russian equipment. We're not really even seeing what NATO tanks/planes could do yet. And Russia's wasted large amounts of their best stuff already.The UK just took in 10,000 Ukrainian troops to train in the UK using new NATO stuff and that's not counting the efforts of other countries, or the efforts of US/UK/Canadian/Australian instructors working in Ukraine proper. This chappy (https://www.forces.net/ukraine/how-quickly-could-ukrainian-pilots-get-speed-western-jets) suggests that you could cut corners and get experienced pilots trained to use western jets in weeks to months, with some high risk caveats
Strange coming from the guy that gave free IT support to the Ukrainian Army. Less strange when you read articles that it was basically useless.
To be clear, the official reason of not sending more sophisticated NATO equipment was because it would take more time to train the Ukrainian troops. The tanks and airplanes that Ukraine is using are mostly better-maintained older Soviet/Russian equipment. We're not really even seeing what NATO tanks/planes could do yet. And Russia's wasted large amounts of their best stuff already.
If that was their plan, they wouldn't have downgraded their claim from "Ukraine's going to set off a nuke and blame us" to "Ukraine is going to set off a dirty bomb and blame us". They greatly underestimated the amount of backbone North America and the rest of Europe possessed, and are desperately trying to find some propaganda claim that will weaken said backbone.Except a modern nuke wouldn't be as destructive to civilians (comparatively) as a dirty bomb. Nukes, if detonated airburst, level cities but leave everything open for rebuilding due to the lack of huge amounts of fallout. Dirty bombs poison the soil with fallout for decades.
While the dirtyness per megaton of yield of modern nukes is most definitly lower than that of old fission bombs, the modern fusion bombs still use a fission based detonator, so they are most definitly not so clean as to 'level a city but leave everything open for rebuilding'. Modern nukes will still pollute the soil and environment with fallout.
But yeah, you're right that a dirty bomb will create more fallout problems.
If that was their plan, they wouldn't have downgraded their claim from "Ukraine's going to set off a nuke and blame us" to "Ukraine is going to set off a dirty bomb and blame us". They greatly underestimated the amount of backbone North America and the rest of Europe possessed, and are desperately trying to find some propaganda claim that will weaken said backbone.Except a modern nuke wouldn't be as destructive to civilians (comparatively) as a dirty bomb. Nukes, if detonated airburst, level cities but leave everything open for rebuilding due to the lack of huge amounts of fallout. Dirty bombs poison the soil with fallout for decades.
LET'S START A WAR
START A NUCLEAR WAR
AT THE GAY BAR GAY BAR GAY BAR WOOOOOO!!!! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XNFokmDKrE)
Yeah I was thinking of cobalt bombs, thanks for correcting me.If that was their plan, they wouldn't have downgraded their claim from "Ukraine's going to set off a nuke and blame us" to "Ukraine is going to set off a dirty bomb and blame us". They greatly underestimated the amount of backbone North America and the rest of Europe possessed, and are desperately trying to find some propaganda claim that will weaken said backbone.Except a modern nuke wouldn't be as destructive to civilians (comparatively) as a dirty bomb. Nukes, if detonated airburst, level cities but leave everything open for rebuilding due to the lack of huge amounts of fallout. Dirty bombs poison the soil with fallout for decades.
That's really not true at all. The "poison the earth for decades" notion refers to a cobalt bomb, which is a very "dirty" nuclear weapon fitted with a jacket of Cobalt 59 (ordinary cobalt metal) that is transmuted by the neutron flux into radioactive Cobalt 60 immediately before being vaporized by the extremely high energy of the atomic explosion. The energy of the blast turns the cobalt into a far finer particulate than any conventional explosion could, and Cobalt 60 (which is produced in very small numbers in an ordinary reactor - via transmuting iron into cobalt 59 and then the cobalt 59 into cobalt 60 - but far too little to readily collect) has very specific radioactive properties that make it a particularly nasty contaminant. The half-life of 5.27 years is long enough that you can't easily just wait it out, and short enough that the stuff is still extremely emissive. There's an inverse relationship between half-life and danger - the longer the half-life of a radioactive material, the less radiation it emits and thus the less danger it represents.
A so-called "dirty bomb" is just taking a bunch of radioactive material, wrapping it around some explosives, and detonating it. This scatters radioactive material around, but simple physics mean that the radioactive material is in much larger chunks and doesn't spread nearly as well. Simple radioactive materials don't generate the kind of hard neutron radiation you need to make more stuff radioactive, so it is just a lot of bits of radiation sitting around. And the thing about radiation is that it is pretty damn easy to detect. Cleanup from a dirty bomb would be expensive, but would simply amount to evacuating the area and sending a bunch of people in with radiations suits, firehoses (the vast majority of contamination would be outside, and can be washed down the sewers to be filtered out later), and Geiger counters (to track down and clean up anything that's left). Once that is done, the area can be reoccupied with no further risk. A fair number of people will have a somewhat elevated cancer risk, but it is not the doomsday weapon people think it is - it probably won't kill more than a handful of people other than those close enough to get caught in the actual blast.
Quite seriously, each of the groundbursts from American nuclear tests in the 50s and early 60s probably contaminated Las Vegas more than a hundred dirty bombs could.
Russia has declared lghbti+ to be a 'weapon of the West', and has decided to further restrict the rights of them in Russia.
Yep. Ernst Röhm (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_R%C3%B6hm) was the leader of the SA, up until its purge during the Night of Long Knives.A pity he was shot in the mid-afternoon, if it had been when it was still dark you could have said that Röhm wasn't killed in the day...
Has any alliance of factions carried out an armed revolution, without the dominant faction killing off important leaders from the weaker factions after the revolution was won?After the American Revolution, both political parties lost leaders to duels.
Has any alliance of factions carried out an armed revolution, without the dominant faction killing off important leaders from the weaker factions after the revolution was won?
Yeah I know right. I'm proud of being a Western agent.Russia has declared lghbti+ to be a 'weapon of the West', and has decided to further restrict the rights of them in Russia.
We are very good at disrupting fascists, or so I like to think.
Has any alliance of factions carried out an armed revolution, without the dominant faction killing off important leaders from the weaker factions after the revolution was won?
Has any alliance of factions carried out an armed revolution, without the dominant faction killing off important leaders from the weaker factions after the revolution was won?I imagine purge free revolutions were common in the past in countries with weak central leadership when killing off the weaker factions meant that you needed to send armies in to siege their castles over years for minimal gain or piss off all your loyal lords.
As it hasn't been mentioned yet, Russia is throwing a whole bunch of mudlike substances, trying to get at least some to stick (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63437212). Usual MO, hard to tell what's true (apart from the wanting to take its ball home and refuse to play nicely in the one international agreement that actually exists), so read it as you will.Nice footage from the drones e.g. here:
I have my suspicions, but that's beyond my ability to call.
A note that three guilty verdicts have just been passed (one acquittal) in the MH17 trial. No hope of the sentencing being enacted, and not much more that could be done against Russia (at this point), but it's legally official nonetheless.
I rather expect it to be ignored, by the guilty parties, so long as those found guilty in absence are in no danger of being handed over. Which means the state that once protected them is nothing like it is now and may be more than happy to expedite delayed justice in one form or another.A note that three guilty verdicts have just been passed (one acquittal) in the MH17 trial. No hope of the sentencing being enacted, and not much more that could be done against Russia (at this point), but it's legally official nonetheless.
I expect an appeal and 5 more years of trial...
I can't help but to see Xi's statement in the context of a intended Taiwan invasion.Probably the only silver lining of Putin's immense folly is that it showcased the many ways a Taiwanese invasion could end in absolute disaster 100x more effectively than any American or Chinese war game could ever have done and seems to have sobered up PRC warhawks
Cherson's inhabitants say that the Russians burnt many corpses at one of the city's garbage dumps.
Eye witnesses report that trucks brought many black bags there and those were set on fire, after which a nauseating and penetrant odour of burned flesh filled the air. What remained was buried under the garbage.
Employees of the garbage dump confirmed the stories.
Some people say it were the corpses of their own soldiers.
"every time we bombarded them, they moved the remains of the fallen to the garbage dump to burn them".
So yeah.. Russian moms, Russian dads, brothers, sisters. If they tell you your child / sibling deserted, they lie. Your loved one was killed and burned like trash offal.
So yeah.. Russian moms, Russian dads, brothers, sisters. If they tell you your child / sibling deserted, they lie. Your loved one was killed and burned like trash offal.The messages of that one mobilised chap who was dead in 120 hours, the soldiers who got arrested for deserting their post after they were left under shellfire for 3 days with no food or water... Yeah it's hard to say Russian command is sacrificing its conscripts; sacrifice implies they at least did something useful. This is just slaughter, slaughter with no purpose
"Pay no heed to casualties Comrade Commander, for every Conscript that dies in this glorious crusade, there are a thousand more eager1 to replace him."That's legitimately what happened in Pavlivka
1: For some definitions of eager. Individual constript eagerness might vary. Eagerness not guaranteed in the event of Bayraktar
A bunch of heroic partisans who were planning a bombing of a government building apparently got killed in a shootout with the FSB, which killed a few officers. Rest well, fallen heroes, and may your peers kill thousands more!Could be a cover story for the FSB to murder some college students. But bravo, may it inspire more resistance.
Vranyo; I am lying to you, you know I am lying to you, but still I am lying to you (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik)If people reading this haven't watched this video I highly highly recommend it since it explains so much about the war.
Vranyo; I am lying to you, you know I am lying to you, but still I am lying to you (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik)If people reading this haven't watched this video I highly highly recommend it since it explains so much about the war.
If you don't want to watch an entire hour video I'll sumarize it a bit for you. It basically says that there is systemic lying about everything at every single level of the Russian command structure which is actually a huge huge deal.
The entire reason Putin went into the war? Because people were lying to him.
The reason everyone thought that Russia had a super awesome military? Everyone in the military lying to each other and the press about how awesome it was.
The reason Russia is claiming they killed like 300% of the Ukranian air force and took some towns like ten times? Because people are lying to their boss who lie to their boss who lie to their boss who lies to the media.
---
And currently its resulting in stuff like this, where Russia seems to just zerg rush hundreds of dudes in with no support for no reason because everyone is lying to their commanders and saying that things are going super great so their commanders just smile at the good news and send them in.
I wonder if we'll ever find out why Russia sending all these soldiers into a meat grinder to die.
I wonder if we'll ever find out why Russia sending all these soldiers into a meat grinder to die.Putin looks into a camera
I don't see how talking about a movie about cats will do anything and why Putin would mention it or how it would end the war.Aristocrats. Not Aristocats.
It would be pretty funny if this whole thing turned out to be some weird prank only Putin found funny.
Forced conscription always gathers meat for the meat-grinder, and the officers and career military are always protected by that meat-shield. The expression of exclusionary politics on the battlefield is "you go first". Those Russian conscripts are not dying in a new way and mass communication is the only reason you are hearing about it.That's not entirely true; in the spirit of egalitarianism Russian generals have also been getting themselves pointlessly killed, to show solidarity with all the conscripts they're pointlessly getting killed
Oh man this is all leading up to skynet becoming a thing, we're all doomed Novel was right!
Oh god, and we let him on the forum!Oh man this is all leading up to skynet becoming a thing, we're all doomed Novel was right!
Novel is Skynet, Zultan.
But really, the kicker is the image at the top of the article, which is misleading because it looks like two battlemechs are also among the new weapons...Mecha combat: Expectation vs reality.
If Ukraine does not comply, the Russian army will make them comply
Worth noting also that Russia has been applying MRV tech to some of it's ICMBs to overwhelm anti-missile defenses.
Not unless that starwars program put any lasers in orbit. Weve got the jeep-based lasers and the big plane-based lasers supposedly, but like you said they'd have to be close enough to the launch sites to shoot down the missiles before they leave range. That means sending them into Russia before Putin launches the missiles. With escorts of course.
late-ass PTWLOL
Given the state of the Russian military it might be sufficient...but probably isn't. Better that we not test it for real.I would be extremely suprised if either A) All of the nukes worked (because lol Russian military upkeep), or B) None of the nukes worked (because Putin's ego).
One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind themhttps://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-gold-ring-gifts-russian-leaders-sparks-lord-rings-jokes-comparisons-social-media-1769785
Given the state of the Russian military it might be sufficient...but probably isn't. Better that we not test it for real.I would be extremely suprised if either A) All of the nukes worked (because lol Russian military upkeep), or B) None of the nukes worked (because Putin's ego).
If putin pressed the button and only like 50 (of of 1600 nukes that are armed and active) nukes came shooting out of their silo I would go "Yup, sounds about right" and not be suprised at all.
The thing is that even if we intercept 90% of those 50 nukes and 5 get through the night would still end with putin killing 50 million people + however many russians die in the counterattack.
Obviously even those super low numbers are way too many deaths to be acceptable, so...
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zzbzsn/final_message_to_russians_from_defense_minister/...stupid reddit. Not content to pester me to use their App (quite agressively) under normal circumstances, it gives me the sole choice of seeing this 18+ content (why? graphic violence?) in its App or going "home". I imagine that I'm as capable of lying about my age (should I need to, which I don't) to the App as with the website, so that's something else on top of the "oooh, you're on a mobile device... You must try our App, because there' no way your browser on that tablet can give you the same experience as a browser on a desktop" attitude.
Yes burn me at the stake.
Exciting, I'll bring snacks!Yes burn me at the stake.
aight
Novel, get the stake! I'll handle the fire.
Contrary to how I felt about Wagner mercs dying, I do feel somewhat sorry for these reservist sods. Drafted into a war they have no idea about, from their backwater villages.I feel sorry for the whole lot of them. I think I'd feel more fine if it was "necessary," but it feels much worse, because all these Russians did not die for any necessary reason. At any moment Putin could end the war, give up Crimea & Eastern Ukraine to save the lives of his people. Instead he just keeps sending in wave after wave of his own people to die for nothing. I think it's very symbolic that Wagner group spent so many lives capturing a fortified rubbish dump in Bakhmut. Ukraine will do what they must, but Putin has the choice to fall on his sword and end the actual slaughter he started to stop the pretend slaughter that never existed
I am more sad about the loss of the High School though. That's a loss to the Ukraine education system.
At any moment Putin could end the war, give up Crimea & Eastern Ukraine to save the lives of his people. Instead he just keeps sending in wave after wave of his own peopleIt is Russian tradition!
(AMX-10 RC tanks, somewhat misnomered as a light tank. It treads lightly but carries a big stick).
This is not a misnomer, the AMX-10 RC is not an MBT, it is most definitely a light tank or armored car
Enbie-TQuoteThis is not a misnomer, the AMX-10 RC is not an MBT, it is most definitely a light tank or armored carSpoiler (click to show/hide)
While it's nice to see them getting more stuff they can put to good use, one can't help but wonder what sort of logistics hell this is going to create for the Ukrainian army down the line. Having a bunch of leftover soviet stock (which itself had a bunch of different systems with overlapping purposes (hello T-64/T-72/T-80)) and then mixing in a smorgasbord of NATO tech into it is bound to cause issues. Even if they do have a certain amount of parts commonality, just the amount of different ammo types they'll need is headache inducing.
And while the eventual shift to mostly NATO stock is probably a good idea for long term sustainability and potential NATO integration, doing the transition during wartime is bound to cause issues. Then again, not like they have much choice in the matter right now.
While it's nice to see them getting more stuff they can put to good use, one can't help but wonder what sort of logistics hell this is going to create for the Ukrainian army down the line. Having a bunch of leftover soviet stock (which itself had a bunch of different systems with overlapping purposes (hello T-64/T-72/T-80)) and then mixing in a smorgasbord of NATO tech into it is bound to cause issues. Even if they do have a certain amount of parts commonality, just the amount of different ammo types they'll need is headache inducing.
And while the eventual shift to mostly NATO stock is probably a good idea for long term sustainability and potential NATO integration, doing the transition during wartime is bound to cause issues. Then again, not like they have much choice in the matter right now.
Conversely, the Ukrainians Military can combine tech from East and West into Military Monstrosities we've never seen. :D
Conversely, the Ukrainians Military can combine tech from East and West into Military Monstrosities we've never seen. :D
Yep! - https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukraines_buk_sam_will_receive_rim_7_sea_sparrow_missiles_which_solves_missile_shortage_problem-5354.html
However, as Politico says with reference to its own sources, that the Ukrainian military managed to adjust the existing Soviet-era Buk launchers to fire the Sea Sparrow, which means that regardless of the version of the missile, the issue of launching these missiles from Soviet systems already solved.
Eh, if Ukraine needs tanks it's better to give them mediocre tanks they can use than super tanks they can't use. At least until they've hit a point where they can use the super tanks. Throwing high maintenance hardware into situations where there isn't the knowledge or infrastructure to maintain them has a history of being strategically foolish.
Not sure how long it takes a mechanic trained on Soviet gear to learn how to maintain a high end Western tank, but I imagine it's more than a bit of an adjustment.
But in Iraq and Afghanistan, they were routinely destroyed by improvised IEDs. RPGs will fuck up anything, but I remember reports of troops feeling like Bradleys were just deathtraps on wheels. Against an actual modern military force? I imagine they'd fair even worse.
Meanwhile most of the BMPs we have seen get hit leave noting but a crater (because of the ludicrous amounts of ammunition) or a puddle of melted aluminum "because the designers went to insane extremes trying to cut weight
While it's nice to see them getting more stuff they can put to good use, one can't help but wonder what sort of logistics hell this is going to create for the Ukrainian army down the line. Having a bunch of leftover soviet stock (which itself had a bunch of different systems with overlapping purposes (hello T-64/T-72/T-80)) and then mixing in a smorgasbord of NATO tech into it is bound to cause issues. Even if they do have a certain amount of parts commonality, just the amount of different ammo types they'll need is headache inducing.The Ukrainian army has already reported some interesting phenomenon, such as having a healthy stockpile of ex-Soviet artillery systems but not enough ammunition for them, but an abundance of NATO ammunition but not enough artillery & barrels to fire them. So getting more NATO equipment may actually help ease the logistical strain on ex-Soviet stock
And while the eventual shift to mostly NATO stock is probably a good idea for long term sustainability and potential NATO integration, doing the transition during wartime is bound to cause issues. Then again, not like they have much choice in the matter right now.
Poland has decided to send a company of Leopard tanks to help neighboring Ukraine in the war with invading Russia, President Andrzej Duda said Wednesday.
But Duda, on a visit to Lviv, said that the move would be possible only as an element in a larger international coalition of tank aid to Kyiv.
Poland’s leaders have been indicating that they were in talks with other countries over a potential international coalition that would send the German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine. They haven't named the countries.
Within this potential international coalition, “we have taken the decision to contribute a first package of tanks, a company of Leopard tanks, which, I hope, together with other companies of Leopard and other tanks that will be offered by other countries will .... be able to strengthen Ukraine’s defense,” Duda told a news conference in Lviv.
Anyone up-to-date with the situation around Bakhmut? Yesterday the Russians were breaking through on the flanks.
Wagner Group is claiming they took Soledar, a small but tactically-important village in the region... but Russian military are counterclaiming that Soledar hasn't been taken yet. They're also fighting over who gets credit for whatever degree Soledar is taken or not, with Wagner claiming they solo'd it and the actual military claiming there's an ongoing joint operation.
Seeing some very credible reports, including statements from Polish government officials, that Leopard 2 tanks will be heading into Ukraine. There's also reports that Britain will send Challenger 2s, if they can find any that work.This shall be the challenger 2's finest swan song.
Russian command reshuffle (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64235713)..."A group of animals come together to make an impromptu orchestra. The duck is on the drums, the pig on the woodwind, the cow on the strings and the dog on the piano. It doesn't sound very good. They change places and keep trying to find an arrangement that works. Eventually an owl arrives, and they ask the owl for advice on how to make their music arrangements.
Forgive me if I just read it as just an attempt to stop a rival cult of personality by the actual head-cultist.
“We have long held the view that what our allies supply is their business. And we support the countless (defense) contributions that our allies contributed for Ukraine”.
Another Top Russian Military Official Dead After Fall (https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-military-official-marina-yankina-dead-after-fall-from-16th-floor)I guess he forgot to take flying lessons...
(She, and...) One lesson only. Covering both flying and landing.Another Top Russian Military Official Dead After Fall (https://www.thedailybeast.com/top-russian-military-official-marina-yankina-dead-after-fall-from-16th-floor)I guess he forgot to take flying lessons...
Is this the one that has been scapegoated a lot recently by the Russian authorities?Looks like it.
Is this starlink thing gonna be the start of Elon's newest temper tantrum?That is unfair. SpaceX have been providing internet service to Ukraine since from the start of Russian invasion. Naturally their aim was to provide civilian aid to Ukraine, to help people stay connected to each other and the outside world despite Russia attempt to cut them off. Unfortunately, it became widely known that Ukrainians have leveraged the service for battlefield control, which affects SpaceX global prospect.
Honestly, Putin could have just threatened to declare Starlink satellites enemy combatants, and used that theory to blow them up.Unlikely, that would lead to an escalation with USA.
He can move those satellites to limit competitors, and nobody can do anything about it.
To be clear, I dunno how many satellites Putin can actually kill. However, due to how space debris scatter and how dangerous they are to satellites in general, one intentional satellite destruction could take out a whole constellation.
Let's let Ukraine decide on that imo
Let's let Ukraine decide on that imo
::)
Any sovereign country determine its own future. Naturally it is Ukraine choice how to peruse its defensive war, just as it as everyone else choice whether to support them. (This true regardless that personally I believe that it is in west best interest to do so)
Western support is Ukraine's full war mode, without it its military demise is inevitable due to simple economic starting with ammunition, and all it could ever hope for would be guerilla resistance with Syria/Chechnya like devastation with Russia easily chocking every access point into the country. This reality affects available choices in the field, something that any Ukrainian military planner can not ignore.
Obviously during war time the messaging is that the west will support Ukraine no matter what, that it is Ukraine choice, that it will not compromise no matter what etc etc which is great, it has its utility and should result in better terms for Ukraine, but media narratives aside that not how realpolitik works.
Not really your place for tone policing.
Western support is Ukraine's full war mode, without it its military demise is inevitable due to simple economic starting with ammunition, and all it could ever hope for would be guerilla resistance with Syria/Chechnya like devastation with Russia easily chocking every access point into the country.
Ah, but that theory of what is realpolitik is turned on it's head by clever people. Putin decries his war as a response to Western and in particular US influence. It seems to me this necessitates a re-evaluation of what is realpolitik in such a situation. Thus, who is driving? Ukraine is driving.
QuoteWestern support is Ukraine's full war mode, without it its military demise is inevitable due to simple economic starting with ammunition, and all it could ever hope for would be guerilla resistance with Syria/Chechnya like devastation with Russia easily chocking every access point into the country.
You seem to underestimate how hard it is to take a single large fortified city, even when you have total air supremacy and are willing to reduce the city to rubble and the other side has only light infantry. And Ukraine is a quite urbanized country
Wow, somebody never heard of Vietnam, nor Afghanistan(Russian invasion and American invasion, for the uninformed)...
Wow, somebody never heard of Vietnam, nor Afghanistan(Russian invasion and American invasion, for the uninformed)..I will, however, point out that the terrain was *very* different in both. Afghanistan has shitloads of mountains, Vietnam was both distant overseas and has large swathes of jungle, especially in the north. Ukraine is half steppe steppe with forest across the north to the west. Much harder to run a guerilla war when you have large amounts of open land. At the very least, Russia could subjugate the south east half of the country with a lot more ease.
I said that without western support Ukraine military demise is inventible (emphasize on military). Otherwise, you seem to underestimate how Ukraine war effort dependent on outside support, for example how long doing you think that Ukraine anti air can hope to last without expansive ammo, early warning capabilities from NATO, fuel communication, etc.
My assumption here is that saying "Ukraine doesn't really have a say here" kinda probably sounds a bit like the "western puppet" arguments used by people who tend to defend Putin's actions, which is probably what prompted the counterargument as a result.
According to USA China is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia, although I suspect it is likely posturing that goes along their suggested peace plan, the carrot and the stick sort of thing.This is a good point, which illustrates why we keep the News thread and Emotional thread seperate.My assumption here is that saying "Ukraine doesn't really have a say here" kinda probably sounds a bit like the "western puppet" arguments used by people who tend to defend Putin's actions, which is probably what prompted the counterargument as a result.
It does feels like much here is knee jerking to narratives.. although here it started with report of NATO-Ukraine pact, then couple of negative comments later translate to defending that west isn't 'pressuring Ukraine' to make peace.. so essentially the exact opposite of Russia's narrative at least in the iteration I know, they have so many of those nonsensical narratives that it is impossible to track.
What does NSFL stand for?Not Safe For Life. Basically stuff that can traumatize someone sensitive like gore, rape, some medical conditions. It's also not safe for work but simply NSFW usually means porn.
MQ-9 Reaper is one of the bigger drones, quick google put its price tag at 30million (roughly 3 Abraham tanks or third of modern F15)
According to flight radar path posted online the incident indeed took place in international water in the middle of black sea. No where Russia could claim sovereignty like with British destroyer freedom of navigation near Crimea few years back.
@anewaname, I don't believe Russia's claim holds water.Punning is the right attitude...
Anything is possible, but there is nothing to suggest that MQ-9 aircraft was conducting anything but a routine operation as it has been doing for close to a year, and Russian pilot flying off the handle. Here is the flight path from the day before:Take out the "Russian pilot flying off the handle" statement... because that is a construct designed to support someone's story. Those Russian pilots are making the same flights, feeling the same emotions, and following the same orders. That first dumping of the fuel, a pilot could get away with that without reprimand, the second dumping of the fuel also might have been acceptable... because the pilots could argue to their superiors that there is value to knowing if these drones are susceptible to this method of attempting to down them, but following the failed attempts to use dumped fuel to down the drone, they got so close the craft collided? That is not something a pilot unless they were under orders. Every combat pilot knows their leash has more slack in it than most, but they don't forget the leash is there.https://www.itamilradar.com/2023/03/13/another-week-begins-in-the-black-sea-theatre/Spoiler (click to show/hide)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/16/russian-wagner-group-places-15m-bounty-italian-minister-guido/ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/16/russian-wagner-group-places-15m-bounty-italian-minister-guido/)
What is Wanker Group thinking?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/16/russian-wagner-group-places-15m-bounty-italian-minister-guido/ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/16/russian-wagner-group-places-15m-bounty-italian-minister-guido/)Probably that it costs them nothing to do, and not much beyond that. It's not like they're particularly likely to pay up even if someone was stupid enough to try to collect.
What is Wanker Group thinking?
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/16/russian-wagner-group-places-15m-bounty-italian-minister-guido/ (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/03/16/russian-wagner-group-places-15m-bounty-italian-minister-guido/)Probably coming from a much more desperate and aggressive position given how spicy things are getting between them and Shoigu. But it's also interesting to note that after Prigozhin claimed that Russian army commanders were giving his forces ammunition and he had allies within the Russian army, ammunition supplies were given back to his units (https://www.rferl.org/a/prigozhin-wagner-mercenaries-ammunition-supplies-army/32284809.html)
What is Wanker Group thinking?
Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of Chechnya, was upset at the losses elite Chechen paratrooper units sustained during an assault on Hostomel airfield outside capital. Meanwhile, ultranationalists with ties to Russia's separatist proxies in the Donbas thought the army's grinding tactics had led to needlessly high casualty rates in eastern Ukraine.For a reminder; the naval infantry were sent into Pavlivka even though Pavlivka was already surrounded by Ukrainian forces. Gerasimov got a medal for this brilliant encirclement
Senior figures in Russia's military shared some of Prigozhin's disdain for Shoigu and Gerasimov, according to the person close to him and a senior Ukrainian official.
Most prominent among them were Sergey Suroivkin, who favoured tactics that better factored in Russia's battlefield limitations when commanding the invasion last autumn, and Mickhail Teplinsky, head of Russia's paratroopers, who had also sustained huge casualties in Gerasimov's assaults.
"Gerasimov's tactics are to throw paratroopers at the most dangerous flashpoints and they really just get killed," said Vadim Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukrainian military inteligence.
Skibitskyi pointed to the fate of Russia's elite 155th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade, which Ukraine and Russian nationalist bloggers with ties to the military said suffered devastating losses during attacks on fortified positions in the Donbas over the winter.
Footage is emerging of tanks being hauled out of Russian storage and heading West.At this point a 12 year old Hoi4 gamer could manage the Russian war effort better than the Russian high command
T-54s - which entered production in 1946. The ones I've seen pictures of on trains look like fairly early models as well.
I'm not sure what I'd like to see arrive most, T-35s, Object 279s or the Tsar(/Lebedenko/Pipistrelle) 'Tank'.I'm hoping we get to see great war era equipment and vehicles again. Donbas militia are already using 19th century Mosin-Nagants so why not 19th and 20th century tanks?
I'm not sure what I'd like to see arrive most, T-35s, Object 279s or the Tsar(/Lebedenko/Pipistrelle) 'Tank'.I'm hoping we get to see great war era equipment and vehicles again. Donbas militia are already using 19th century Mosin-Nagants so why not 19th and 20th century tanks?
Good point. I do wonder how accurate it is, quick google suggest that its effective range is 2,700 meters which I am skeptical about that, but you could probably improve its performance with some modern modifications.
How about T-54/55, given some modifications can a quantity of these cheap and reliable tanks be useful on this battlefield?
(note that Abrams deliveries have been hastened, probably enough to get them in country this year)The trade-off being that they're now going to be refurbished M1A1s instead of new M1A2s. And I still think 30ish tanks in autumn-winter, after what's likely to be the most important phase of the fighting, when you have thousands in storage - is a joke.
Using them as infantry support is effectively suicide, because literally any anti-armor rocket or recoilless rifle round will take one out, and those have been very generously seeded at low levels in Ukrainian forces.By the same logic, using any IFV in that role is a suicide.
Good point. I do wonder how accurate it is, quick google suggest that its effective range is 2,700 meters which I am skeptical about that, but you could probably improve its performance with some modern modifications.(Pre-ninjaed by the following, including just to acknowledge it already saying some of what I want to say to the above.)
For a machine gun, "effective range" is the distance to which a bullet can kill. You won't be pulling pinpoint accuracy at such ranges, but the only time you'll be firing at such extensive distances is to break up/harass clusters of men, a task for which precision is not required. This is the same reason that late 19th/early 20th century rifles had sights that went out to ludicrous distances - that was for an entire unit to lay down area fire.
At more reasonable ranges, the Maxim is quite accurate, probably more so than most machine guns because it is such a stable platform (due to being incredibly heavy)
The 1910 Maxim Gun has shown up in service repeatedly, but doesn't get much mockery because it is proving shockingly effective. Everyone assumed such an immobile weapon would be useless in modern war, but if it can survive (and Ukrainian ones have), it can still pour out an amount of death unmatched by any modern weapon* (and Ukranian ones have).Not bad for a weapon invented in 1884. Reminds me of the Dardanelles gun that the Ottomans used to breach the walls of the Byzantine Empire being reused 300 years later to defend against a British warship (successfully!) or that one bronze age sword being reused 2800 years later in the Irish rebellion. Ancient and obsolete does not always mean ancient and obsolete, provided the circumstances permit :P
*All modern machine guns are air-cooled to save weight, under the assumption that the most important aspect of a machine gun is being able to move it rapidly - either to avoid counterfire on the defense, or to move up in support of an assault. Maxims are water-cooled, which adds significant weight to an already heavy weapon (it was, after all, the first true machine gun ever). The upside to that is that modern guns can only fire so long before overheating, forcing you to stop firing or change barrels. A Maxim can fire as long as you can keep it supplied with ammunition and "fresh" "water".
I find it especially amusing that we are starting to see triple\quad maxims used as AA weapons against slow-moving drones like Shahed and this vintage setup is way more effective than using modern infantry machineguns for this role. (sure, something like Oerlikon would be better but...)Ah yes the premium MT-LB
BTW, Russia produced this abomination (https://en.defence-ua.com/media/contentimages/d77640239228f72c.jpeg) to fight drones and I actually think that it is a really smart idea to use old naval AA turrets for this.
Cope cages are stupid, putting reactive armor on BMPs is idiotic, and digging trenches on Crimean beaches is brainless. Doing such a low-tech solution against slow-flying drones is actually a good idea.Trenches in crimean beaches might be a show meant to discourage NATO from launching a marine assault from the black sea. Or it could be the work of mobiks who want to look busy so they have a reasonable excuse for why they aren't fighting on the front lines, doing important "fortification work"
It could have been used to signal NATO its determination, or internally to scare its own people to get them mobilize to fight on the front. Or maybe just used for training purpose, were there any news of anyone actually using them?Cope cages are stupid, putting reactive armor on BMPs is idiotic, and digging trenches on Crimean beaches is brainless. Doing such a low-tech solution against slow-flying drones is actually a good idea.Trenches in crimean beaches might be a show meant to discourage NATO from launching a marine assault from the black sea. Or it could be the work of mobiks who want to look busy so they have a reasonable excuse for why they aren't fighting on the front lines, doing important "fortification work"
few quick news updates (https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-russia-suffers-tank-losses-in-donetsk/a-65151298) that haven't seen been mentioned:First I'd heard of that actually happening (haven't heard any news today, though)... But the Leopard 2 was about to arrive, if you meant that, also on the promisary list. It'll be hopefully good to see them all in use, though, and all the rest.
* First Challenger 2 tank has arrived in Ukraine.
(And the fact that the Challenger was to arrive bundled with DU ammunition was seized upon by Putin that we were delivering "nuclear materials" to Ukraine - despite DU being far from what he was implying as Ukraine can probably scrape together actual useful amounts of far more radiological substances just from the various actual nuclear power stations they are still operating/in control of, should they so desire. And it was no shock to me when the announcement of tactical nukes being installed in Belarus came. That likely was already happening, but they of course leapt upon this very flimsy excuse to justify the action and 'sell' the necessity.)
How is the pilot training going? I haven't seen much in the news since it began.America has started training Ukrainian pilots (https://www.forbes.com/sites/erictegler/2023/03/08/who-could-train-ukrainian-pilots-to-fly-those-f-16s-theyre-not-supposed-to-be-getting/), Poland is keen to get started ASAP (https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/03/09/polish-president-calls-for-training-of-ukrainian-pilots-to-operate-f-16-fighter-jets-cnn/), Ukraine is ready to send more pilots (https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/head-of-ukraine-parliament-were-ready-to-send-pilots-for-fighter-jet-training/1582708108.html). This RAF chappy (https://www.forces.net/ukraine/how-quickly-could-ukrainian-pilots-get-speed-western-jets) says it takes 4 years to train a pilot from scratch, 6 months for an experienced pilot to learn how to fly a western jet, and weeks if you want to "cut corners" to teach basics that would get a pilot combat ready at a "high risk." So even at the most gungho expedited training program I wouldn't expect a legion of Ukrainian fighter pilots announced yet
President Zelenskyy will visit the UK today to meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and address parliament as the UK steps up its delivery of lethal aid into the country, and prepares to train fighter jet pilots and marines.I think it bodes well for Ukraine for the PM to just casually drop "oh yeah we are giving Ukraine long range weapons that we expect to be used to strike Russia." It'll hopefully set a precedent for more anxious allies to do likewise since this quiet announcement hasn't started WWIII yet
The leaders will discuss a two-pronged approach to UK support for Ukraine, starting with an immediate surge of military equipment to the country to help counter Russia’s spring offensive, and reinforced by long-term support.
The Prime Minister will also offer the UK’s backing to President Zelenskyy’s plans to work towards a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.
As part of today’s talks, the Prime Minister will offer to bolster the UK’s training offer for Ukrainian troops, including expanding it to fighter jet pilots to ensure Ukraine can defend its skies well into the future.
The Prime Minister will also offer to provide Ukraine with longer range capabilities. This will disrupt Russia’s ability to continually target Ukraine’s civilian and critical national infrastructure and help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines.
The President and his team will also meet defence and security chiefs, including the Chief of Defence Staff and Chief of the Air Staff, to discuss the details of the training programme.
GLSDB isn't much more capable than existing GMLRS munitions (the main utility is that they have greater terminal maneuverability, which could help against some targets), but does have a significant advantage nonetheless. GMLRS is fairly new, and part of a capability that the US has kept on the backburner for a long time. This translates to extremely limited quantities in the magazine. GLSDB mates surplus MLRS motors (which the US has in vast numbers from decommissioned cluster rockets) and mates them to the aircraft-launched Small Diameter Bomb (which the US been building in huge numbers as part of a "the skies will rain fire and steel" warfighting strategy). The only new component is the mating collar. Functionally, this means that there is no longer a worry of the US having to stop supply due to running out.Interesting, I didn't know that, that is good news hopefully no production bottlenecks. Otherwise increased range and reduced cost is good as well. According to Wikipedia maximum effective range rose from 92 km to 150 km (easily covering all occupied territories except Crimea) and cost reduction roughly by a factor of 3.
Given recent news, any chance of Armenia would distance itself from Russia over its failure to intercede on its behalf in the nagorno karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan?They'd been thinking about it but nothing concrete so far (https://www.politico.eu/article/nancy-pelosi-visit-armenia-debate-alliance-russia/)
Interfax: Suspect in murder of ‘war correspondent’ Vladlen Tatarsky in custody in Petersburg
Daria Trepova, a St. Petersburg resident born in 1997, has been arrested on suspicion of murdering pro-Kremlin “war correspondent” Vladlen Tatarsky, reports Interfax, citing a source with knowledge of the situation. Trepova was brought to the investigator.
According to the source, investigators have grounds to believe that Trepova brought a box containing a plaster bust of Tatarsky to a cafe where the “war correspondent” was giving a speech. The bust reportedly contained an explosive device.
At publication, Daria Trepova’s arrest had not been officially confirmed.
Something tells me that new strategy doesn't include anything like "be a more friendly global neighbor."
Arguably it's not really a new strategy Putin have been pursuing this for over a decade, its just PR.
The secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council presented a 12 step plan for the future of Crimea, after it has been liberated.messaging aside, do you believe that Ukraine can capture Crimea?
The plans include the dismantling of the Crimea bridge, expelling any Russian that immigrated to Crimea after 2014, the persecution of Ukrainians who collaborated with the Russian authorities, and declaring all real estate deals that were made after the annexation in 2014 null and void.
messaging aside, do you believe that Ukraine can capture Crimea?Never say never.
messaging aside, do you believe that Ukraine can capture Crimea?
Agreed. Wars can grind on for a very long time.
For Russia in particular it took three years and ~1.4 million dead in WW1 for the revolution to start. To add onto that things are looking relatively stable in Russia currently, so if a revolution does happen its going to be many years away.
Another great victory for Russian foreign policy, to expand the NATO containment zone all along the Russian border. Truly 300 IQ move
I don't find it very reassuring to see confirmed that the world is indeed at the whim of a madman with his finger on the big red button.Eh, he's too delusional to know he's losing. He won't know until revolutionaries drag him out of whatever hole he's in, by which time nobody would listen to him. We're actually safer than if he were more sane.
I don't find it very reassuring to see confirmed that the world is indeed at the whim of a madman with his finger on the big red button.I suspect given this that if he tries to press the button, the guys with actual things to lose might choose to have him carted off at that point and ignore the order.
@Madman198237 who do you think have the upper hand in the sky atm? and will adding a couple wings of F16 will change that in any way?
Pentagon leaks linked to young gun enthusiast who worked at military base – report
Man known online as ‘OG’ is said to have access to large amounts of classified material and to regard intelligence services as repressive
The man responsible for the leak of hundreds of classified Pentagon documents is reported to be a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base, and who was seeking to impress two dozen fellow members of an internet chat group.
[...]
There is increasing evidence that the leak was not an intelligence operation by a state actor aiming to discredit the US, but more likely the consequence of a Pentagon policy of granting top secret security clearances to huge numbers of service members, civilians and contractors. The number of employees and contractors in the entire US government with top secret clearance is about 1.25 million.
Yup
https://apnews.com/article/leaked-documents-pentagon-justice-department-russia-war-d3272b34702d564fe07a480598bcd174 (https://apnews.com/article/leaked-documents-pentagon-justice-department-russia-war-d3272b34702d564fe07a480598bcd174)
Kinda stupid that the US Government let their phone guy have access to battle plans on the Ukrainian War, but whatever
Discord is clearly dangerous and should be banned
Russian media reports senior Russian general killed in Zaporizhzhia
Russian media reported on Monday that a Ukrainian missile strike on the southern Zaporizhzhia front killed an experienced Russian general.
“As a result of an enemy missile attack, the Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, Maj Gen Sergei Goryachev, was killed,” the prominent pro-war blogger Voenkor said in a Telegram post.
Goryachev, a decorated commander, previously led Russian troops in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria.
Voenkor added that “according to representatives of the command of the United Group of Forces (S), the army has lost today one of the brightest and most effective military leaders”.
Several Russian war bloggers said Goryachev was likely killed by a UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile.
The Russian defence ministry is yet to comment on the reported death of Goryachev.
More than a dozen Russian generals are believed to have been killed since Moscow invaded Ukraine.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=1de78c975fb6 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/borrowing-tactics-from-the-us-army-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-is-thundering-through-russian-lines-in-fast-moving-columns/?sh=1de78c975fb6)
Thunder Run!
Prigozhin is calling for a mutiny ("...stop the evil brought by the military leadership of the country..."), claiming that Russian artillery deliberately shelled a Wagner camp, and directly calling out the Kremlin for lying about the Russian casus belli, asserting that "there was nothing extraordinary happening on the eve of February 24. The ministry of defense is trying to deceive the public and the president and spin the story that there was insane levels of aggression from the Ukrainian side and that they were going to attack us together with the whole NATO bloc."
We talkin' WW3 or Russia becoming a war zone? Either way uh...might be time to bug out like yesterday. :VHe means between Wagner and the Russian Army. So the latter. I think I and him (we know each other IRL) will likely flee together if it reaches Siberia.
Stay safe guys.We will try to.
It's still very much an "if only the tsar knew" mode of rhetoric, though: Prigozhin is still calling for the head of Shoigu, while referring to Putin as at the worst badly advised by his surrounding advisors. Still, it is going to be a lethal blow to the Russian war effort.We can scratch this part. Putin's morning address (https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672508593969549312) refers to Wagner as traitors, calls their actions a "stab in the back," and compares it directly to the events of 1917 that led to the collapse of the Eastern front. He also says that decisive action will be taken to "stabilize the situation," as further attacks from the air are being verified on the Wagner convoy in Voronezh oblast, which already puts them halfway to Moscow. Meanwhile, OMON seems to have secured Wagner's headquarters in St. Petersburg. Gerasimov's location remains unknown; he was believed to be in Rostov when it was taken and seems to have escaped capture, even if he hasn't made it out of now-hostile territory.
Apparently the convoy is turning around. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-66006142?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=649727a0f2e5745fd8a78659%26Wagner%20forces%20have%20halted%20advance%20on%20Moscow%20-%20reports%262023-06-24T17%3A33%3A26.525Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:f9176595-6eed-48a1-a6c0-095480e6d4d5&pinned_post_asset_id=649727a0f2e5745fd8a78659&pinned_post_type=share).Didn't learn from history did he.
idkZelensky says Ukrainian intelligence have discovered a plot by Russian agents to plant explosives on top of Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to simulate an attack (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/zelensky-russia-nuclear-attack-zaporizhzhia-b2369780.html)Spoiler (click to show/hide)
This is hearsay as usual but can anyone actually competent verify it?
It comes as the Kremlin said it is taking measures to counter a threat of some kind of Ukrainian sabotage of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.Possible false flag attempt. The millblogger may not have been talking out of their arse suprisingly
https://old.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/14t79u1/oc_animation_showing_flights_taken_by_prigozhins/It's probably either a body double or a form of exile. Russia isn't above taking people off airplanes and shooting them, nor using false info to get the plane to land.
Huh. It looks like Prigozhin has just been wildly flying around Russia the whole time since his "exile" (which doesn't seem to have lasted even a single day). And not just in Siberia or whatever, he has been repeatedly flying to Moscow and St. Petersburg and all the way to the Southern border over and over and over.
Really strange stuff.
An official also told the Times it did not appear any Wagner troops were in Belarus and that most were still at bases in eastern Ukraine. Lukashenko also told reporters Thursday that it was unclear if the Wagner fighters would come to Belarus after he previously offered them a desert military base.And not just for him, but Wagner wasn't exiled *either*.
I doubt the lack of money is gonna stop Russia's fighting, might slow it down but won't completely stop it.
Haven't heard anything about that. EU countries are not buying any Russian oil (since december 2022), so they can't sell any to Ukraine. There's some news articles about China and India buying Russian oil very cheap. I dunno, it is possible that China or India are selling Russian oil to Ukraine, no idea.Last article I saw blamed Hungary and Turkey.
EDIT: in other news, the IAEA reports that landmines have been placed at the Zaporizja nuclear power plant terrain.I was under the impression that those had been there for a while now.
Haven't heard anything about that. EU countries are not buying any Russian oil (since december 2022), so they can't sell any to Ukraine. There's some news articles about China and India buying Russian oil very cheap. I dunno, it is possible that China or India are selling Russian oil to Ukraine, no idea.Looks like for a lot of EU countries Russian gas imports are still very much ongoing, with the EU being Russia's 2nd largest gas export market still (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-are-buying-russian-fossil-fuels/). This ties in with the EU policy to target Russian revenue, but not necessarily gas volume:
Russia’s Declining Fossil Fuel Revenues
The EU’s bans and price caps have resulted in a decline of daily fossil fuel revenues from the bloc of nearly 85%, falling from their March 2022 peak of $774 million per day to $119 million as of February 22nd, 2023.
Although India has stepped up its fossil fuel imports in the meantime, from $3 million daily on the day of the invasion to $81 million per day as of February 22nd of this year, this increase doesn’t come close to making up the $655 million hole left by EU nations’ reduction in imports.
I just learned that the US government and other Western sources estimate that more Ukrainian refugees have migrated to Russia than Russians have emigrated or died during this war. That's not even counting populations of occupied regions.Not surprising. Before the war there were many who considered themselves Ukrainians and Russians, then when Russia invaded they had to pick one or the other. Reminds me of how British and Irish used to not be conflicting adjectives. Of course in addition to those Ukrainians who fled into Russia willingly, there are also those who are just being coerced (https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/16/russia-threatens-ukrainians-who-refuse-russian-citizenship) abducted (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/i-was-so-scared-the-ukrainian-children-taken-to-russia-for-financial-gain) or lacked a safe route into Ukrainian held territory (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/17/europe/ukrainians-russia-far-east-intl-cmd/index.html)
So that's, well, that's a thing.
Not surprising. Before the war there were many who considered themselves Ukrainians and Russians, then when Russia invaded they had to pick one or the other. Reminds me of how British and Irish used to not be conflicting adjectives. Of course in addition to those Ukrainians who fled into Russia willingly, there are also those who are just being coerced (https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/16/russia-threatens-ukrainians-who-refuse-russian-citizenship) abducted (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/i-was-so-scared-the-ukrainian-children-taken-to-russia-for-financial-gain) or lacked a safe route into Ukrainian held territory (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/17/europe/ukrainians-russia-far-east-intl-cmd/index.html)I'm not at all surprised that some Ukrainians would flee to Russia, but I do find it surprising and worth mentioning that it more than makes up for all of Russia's losses since the start of the war. Analysts were claiming, before, that war losses and emigration would destroy Russia's economic future.
The Russian parliament signed a law that allows regional governors to set up their own private armies, to compensate for the loss of Wagner.I wouldn't expect too much. The US has had state militias forever - the entire National Guard is even organized by state. There was a delicate bit back in the 1800s, but it hasn't collapsed into warlordry yet.
Inb4 civil warring mini warlords everywhere. Russia becomes the new Syria. Allahuakhbar!
Not surprising. Before the war there were many who considered themselves Ukrainians and Russians, then when Russia invaded they had to pick one or the other. Reminds me of how British and Irish used to not be conflicting adjectives. Of course in addition to those Ukrainians who fled into Russia willingly, there are also those who are just being coerced (https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/05/16/russia-threatens-ukrainians-who-refuse-russian-citizenship) abducted (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/29/i-was-so-scared-the-ukrainian-children-taken-to-russia-for-financial-gain) or lacked a safe route into Ukrainian held territory (https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/17/europe/ukrainians-russia-far-east-intl-cmd/index.html)Analysts were claiming, before, that war losses and emigration would destroy Russia's economic future.
War losses and emigration are gutting very specific demographics in Russia. The war is mostly killing young men, and a huge portion of the people leaving the country are not only young but highly educated. A nation made up largely of old people and children is likely to be economically crippled for a generation or more - Europe after 1918 (where basically every country had spent four years feeding their finest young men into a sausage grinder) lagged heavily behind the US (who were "only" able to send 6-7 million men to the front before the war ended, and a lot of those didn't even see heavy action) even before 1929, and the Great Depression hit far worse there.The math just doesn't track on that. Not even the most inimical-to-Russia sources estimate combat losses of more than a few hundred thousand, and emigration of more than perhaps one and a half million. On the outside. Russia is a country of almost one hundred fifty million people. Those numbers, no matter how educated they are, barely make an economic dent in this generation, and over two million extra refugees means it washes out in the next generation. Even if we take it in the light that is most unfavorable to Russia - taking the highest estimates of losses and assuming they're all of young people of peak productive age - it's just not enough to make much of a difference, especially for a country that makes the most of its money on raw resources.
Russia isn't losing nearly as many people in combat, obviously, and emigration (which, from what I can find, is estimated to approach or exceed one million souls) is only hitting a fraction of the WWI losses (somewhere around three million dead, combining soldiers and civilians) in absolute or proportionate terms, but there are two factors that more than offset the raw numbers. First, it isn't just young men that are vanishing in large numbers. Quite a lot of women are leaving as well, creating a more complete gap. Even more importantly, they're suffering this loss while none of the other economic and military powers in Europe are. That makes the wound far worse because it isn't a case of everybody else being dragged down as well. It's just Russia (and Ukraine, obviously, but it would be a long time before they were a major economic player even without the war) that's taking this hit.
Ukrainian refugees can't offset that, even if the claims of raw numbers being greater (which I can't find to evaluate) are accurate. Many of those refugees aren't adults, and (more importantly) most of them are not in Russia voluntarily. They're not going to go one step beyond whatever they need to do to survive.
War losses and emigration are gutting very specific demographics in Russia. The war is mostly killing young men, and a huge portion of the people leaving the country are not only young but highly educated. A nation made up largely of old people and children is likely to be economically crippled for a generation or more - Europe after 1918 (where basically every country had spent four years feeding their finest young men into a sausage grinder) lagged heavily behind the US (who were "only" able to send 6-7 million men to the front before the war ended, and a lot of those didn't even see heavy action) even before 1929, and the Great Depression hit far worse there.The math just doesn't track on that. Not even the most inimical-to-Russia sources estimate combat losses of more than a few hundred thousand, and emigration of more than perhaps one and a half million. On the outside. Russia is a country of almost one hundred fifty million people. Those numbers, no matter how educated they are, barely make an economic dent in this generation, and over two million extra refugees means it washes out in the next generation. Even if we take it in the light that is most unfavorable to Russia - taking the highest estimates of losses and assuming they're all of young people of peak productive age - it's just not enough to make much of a difference, especially for a country that makes the most of its money on raw resources.
Russia isn't losing nearly as many people in combat, obviously, and emigration (which, from what I can find, is estimated to approach or exceed one million souls) is only hitting a fraction of the WWI losses (somewhere around three million dead, combining soldiers and civilians) in absolute or proportionate terms, but there are two factors that more than offset the raw numbers. First, it isn't just young men that are vanishing in large numbers. Quite a lot of women are leaving as well, creating a more complete gap. Even more importantly, they're suffering this loss while none of the other economic and military powers in Europe are. That makes the wound far worse because it isn't a case of everybody else being dragged down as well. It's just Russia (and Ukraine, obviously, but it would be a long time before they were a major economic player even without the war) that's taking this hit.
Ukrainian refugees can't offset that, even if the claims of raw numbers being greater (which I can't find to evaluate) are accurate. Many of those refugees aren't adults, and (more importantly) most of them are not in Russia voluntarily. They're not going to go one step beyond whatever they need to do to survive.
The Danish and Dutch airforces intercepted two Tu-95 bombers heading for the NATO airspace under Dutch control.Poland also to station 10,000 troops on the border with Belarus (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/poland-troops-belarus-border-wagner-fighters-nato-tensions-rcna98974). Lots of sabre rattling, probably to try and dampen western enthusiasm for sending stuff to Ukraine
Around 7am this morning the planes were detected by the Danish, after which the Danish and Dutch airforces deployed F16's, which prompted the Russian bombers to do a 180 and fly back home.
The UK airforce also intercepted two Russian bombers this morning that were flying over UK airspace north of the Shetland Islands. Typhoons were sent to intercept.This report is pretty cool, on the topic of Russian incursions on British air and sea space. (https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Foxall-Russia-Military-Incursions_FINAL1.pdf) Between 2005-2015 Russians tested British response times in the air about 6 times every year, which are tests to see how quickly the British would respond to a nuclear strike. Amusingly, the report also details an anecdote where the Ministry of Defence enlisted the help of the US, Canadian and French navies to track down a suspected Russian submarine, that may have actually been one of their own Royal Navy vanguard submarines
Palau is in free association with the USA. Does that mean that if Russia had shot the ship, the US would have had to declare war, or does free association not include military protection?
EDIT: not only that, the ship itself was Turkish, but sailing under the Palau flag. Could have been an article 5.