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Finally... => General Discussion => Topic started by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 09:21:55 am

Title: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 09:21:55 am
Since regional politics threads are what all the cool kids are into these days, and because I've had a couple of people ask me about creating a China thread before.....

All Hail the Imperial Golden Dragon Ninja Tiger Kung-Fu Samurai Panda Thread.

Rather than "just" a China thread, I'm envisioning this as a thread to discuss regional politics and balance-of-power issues for:

*People's Republic of China
*Republic of China/Taiwan
*South Korea
*North Korea (in so far as it affects the neighbors....MSH already has an excellent Best Korea thread for discussing the Glorious Leader's triumphant reign of Juche philosophy)
*Japan (more than just schoolgirls, otaku and robots)
*Thailand
*Burma/Myanmar
*Cambodia
*The Phillipines
*really, anything in Southeast Asia -- not including Australasia, which already has its own thread


For the record (and because it's been a source of confusion before): I'm not Chinese, nor do I live in China currently. I'm a white guy from North Carolina, USA who just happens to have spent most of his academic career specializing in East Asia and have some experience living and traveling in the PRC.

Standard ground rules apply:
1. Don't be a dick.
2. Don't insult, flame, harass, or otherwise antagonize another poster because of their nationality or allegiance.
3. If you make an argument citing statistics, be prepared to back those statistics up with a reputable link. WorldNetDaily, Infowars, etc are not reputable.
4. Try to stick to English. If you need to use non-English terms, that's fine but please provide an explanation of the importance of the term. (This is for me as much as anybody.)

 

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 09:22:23 am
<reserving space for abstracts>
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on April 23, 2014, 09:26:48 am
I'm totally following this.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Kansa on April 23, 2014, 09:35:54 am
ptw
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 09:44:14 am
To start things off, US President Obama is visiting East Asia this week, and there's a lot on his plate.

A big part of his visit is to convince American allies in the region that the much-touted "strategic pivot to Asia" is actually....y'know, pivoting. Cause after that announcement, the US really hasn't done jack-shit in the region because Syria, Iran, Ukraine, etc.

In the meantime, you have:
1. China claiming airspace jurisdiction well beyond their previous borders, out into the East China Sea
2. Territorial disputes over the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands and the South Spratleys
3. The launch of the Liaoning, China's first aircraft carrier (basically the old Soviet Varyag hull stripped down and rebuilt with Chinese gear).
4. A successful and rapidly advancing Chinese space program.
5. A new Chinese President (Xi Jinping).
6. An escalating "cyberwar" between China and the US. While Chinese hackers are said to have penetrated a number of US systems, including military networks, you also have Edward Snowden claiming that the NSA has been hacking Chinese systems, including Huawei -- the single largest networking gear firm in China, and provider of most of the routers/switches etc. in use in the PRC (and many other countries).
7. Two high-profile transportation disasters (the Malaysian Air crash and the capsized ferry in South Korea).

In Japan-China-Korea relations, you have the annual Yasukuni "war shrine" dog-and-pony show where conservative Japanese politicians go to make an annual remembrance of WWII war dead (including about 1600 convicted war criminals). This triggers outrage among Chinese and Koreans, who were largely the targets of much of that Japanese war crime. For a few years there, the Japanese PMs stopped going. But this past December, PM Shinzo Abe visited Yasukuni, triggering the expected reaction overseas. Interestingly, only 38% of Japanese approved (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_shrine) of the visit. But at the same time, over 60% said they were unconvinced by the criticism of the visit. (Which kind of sums up *my* feelings on it as well. The visits themselves make me roll my eyes, but so do the yearly histrionics over it.)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Darvi on April 23, 2014, 09:53:40 am
*Japan (more than just schoolgirls, otaku and robots)
But those topics aren't taboo, right?

Also I have trouble finding an intersection of those three groups.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 23, 2014, 10:01:27 am
There's also the North Koreans threatening to do a new kind of nuke test. Whether or not it was intentionally timed for Obamas trip to Korea or not, I don't know, but they are certainly taking the opportunity to do that while attention is over there.

Doing the nuke test while the president is in Seoul would probably be even more provocative than NK doing that test at any other time.

NK has been (relatively) quiet since all the sabre rattling, screaming, and general noise making a while back.

4. China having an advancing and successful space program isn't a bad thing.

*Japan (more than just schoolgirls, otaku and robots)
But those topics aren't taboo, right?

Also I have trouble finding an intersection of those three groups.

Not taboo, just off topic. RedKing means that it should be about Japanese politics and related things.

Edit: silly iPhone, why did you activate the quote three times....
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 10:03:30 am
*Japan (more than just schoolgirls, otaku and robots)
But those topics aren't taboo, right?

Also I have trouble finding an intersection of those three groups.
Well, actually I meant that there's more to Japan those those three things. But yeah, I'd prefer to keep discussion to the serious side of politics and what not. Now, if Japan unveils a JSDF battalion of robots piloted by schoolgirls (which....let's face it, we could all see Japan doing because Japan) that would be worthy of discussion.




@smjjames:
No, I think the advancement of the Chinese space program is a good thing. But it does have security ramifications.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 12:17:05 pm
In amusing/weird news, there was a minor kerfluffle this week when Justin Bieber visited Yasukuni (http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/04/23/justin-bieber-blunders-into-china-japan-war-shrine-debate/), apparently unaware of its significance.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 23, 2014, 12:19:05 pm
He is trolling us, clearly.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: kaijyuu on April 23, 2014, 05:01:44 pm
Posting to show interest.


My wife majored in political science with an east asian focus, so she knows a lot about China. (although, she probably won't post out of fear of being responded to aggressively by anyone who disagrees)

It's interesting to see how... unstable? Duct-taped together? the country is. Without substantial economic and/or social changes they're gonna crumble in the next few decades.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: misko27 on April 23, 2014, 07:42:49 pm
He is trolling us, clearly.
I think he's been doing that for a while.
Posting to show interest.


My wife majored in political science with an east asian focus, so she knows a lot about China. (although, she probably won't post out of fear of being responded to aggressively by anyone who disagrees)

It's interesting to see how... unstable? Duct-taped together? the country is. Without substantial economic and/or social changes they're gonna crumble in the next few decades.
That shows surprisingly low self-esteem for someone who majored in what is, by far, the field with the most mud-slinging. Although I of all people shouldn't judge, especially not political science majors.

Yeah China's not doing so hot. It's easy to get so caught up in the drumbeat of "CHINA'S TAKING OUR JOBS/BUSINESS/DEBT/WHATEVER" to not see it's own problems are pretty substantial. I mean that male/female ratio thing, damn. And the economic slow down (7% is not enough for some) is causing a minor panic as well. And let us not even mention the environment. But I don't like predicting collapse because it's such a difficult thing: the middle east was and is unstable as all hell, but no one saw Arab Spring coming up until a man lit himself on fire in Tunis. And North Korea and Cuba are just still there, spinning along. It reminds me of something I read a Yellowstone official saying about a rock face perched over a road: "It could fall tomorrow. Or, in a few decades. Or who knows."

There are a lot of long-terms problems. Fundamental, structural problems. But I could imagine it staying up for a long time, equally as I could it falling in a year.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sindain on April 23, 2014, 07:54:08 pm
PTW
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 23, 2014, 08:35:28 pm
This insult to the Superior and Sovereign Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Most Wise Juche philosophy proscribed by Eternal President Kim Il-Sung and all of his descendents shall not go unpunished, American pig dog traitor RedKing.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Tiruin on April 23, 2014, 08:38:03 pm
...There's no Philippines?
Bluh. >_>
PTW anyway.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: majikero on April 23, 2014, 08:39:42 pm
So does this mean US will finally deal with the clusterfuck in Spratly Islands?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: nenjin on April 23, 2014, 08:44:43 pm
This insult to the Superior and Sovereign Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Most Wise Juche philosophy proscribed by Eternal President Kim Il-Sung and all of his descendents shall not go unpunished, American pig dog traitor RedKing.

And now we have precedent for Regional Political Threads making war on each other.

Everyone not the Russia/Ukraine thread better watch their asses, or they might find their thread has a new title by morning. :P
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: misko27 on April 23, 2014, 09:02:01 pm
This insult to the Superior and Sovereign Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Most Wise Juche philosophy proscribed by Eternal President Kim Il-Sung and all of his descendents shall not go unpunished, American pig dog traitor RedKing.

And now we have precedent for Regional Politic Threads making war on each other.

Everyone not the Russia/Ukraine thread better watch their asses, or they might find their thread has a new title by morning. :P
*cough*Europe*cough*.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 23, 2014, 09:58:45 pm
So does this mean US will finally deal with the clusterfuck in Spratly Islands?

I say make the territory split the islands in half.

In all seriousness, it seems like we are pretty much staying out of the argument and only intervening when things get heated to tell people to cool off.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 10:04:01 pm
So does this mean US will finally deal with the clusterfuck in Spratly Islands?

AhahahahahaaahaaaaaNO.

Honestly, I don't know that there *is* a way to deal with it, short of some kind of omnipotent world power just deciding who gets them. And even then, the losers won't accept that verdict.

China and Vietnam have the best historical claim to them. Japan and Taiwan have de facto claims based on occupation of them in WWII and post-Chinese Civil War, respectively. The Philippine claim on them is fairly recent and based mostly on two events:

1. In 1956, a Filipino businessman built a settlement there and proclaimed the Free State of Freedomland. (seriously, that was the name).
2. In 1999, the Philippine Navy ran a ship aground near one of the islands and has stationed troops onboard for the last 15 years.

Really, the Spratleys are sort of a case study in competing lunacy, as each nation seems to try to outdo the others in audacious bullshit tactics to fabricate a claim.


@Tiruin: I'd say the Phillippines are fair game for the thread. I'd consider that Southeast Asia.




As to China's instability....here's the thing. China in its current polity form is still relatively young (less than 70 years). China as a civilization has been around since before the Pyramids.

At the same time, I've heard it said that Mao's greatest accomplishment was getting the Chinese to believe in the idea of China. Even if it's not in the form he wanted, Chinese today believe in the concept of a unified China in a way that no previous generation has. There are still the regional differences, the stereotypes, the yawning gap between rich and poor, the divide between reformists and nationalists, etc. But prior to Mao, China would have fallen apart in a heartbeat. Hell, it pretty much did immediately after becoming a country under Sun Yat-sen.

There's still a significant chance that China could revert back to its inter-dynastic habits and splinter into several successor states if the Chinese Communist Party were to lose control. But my gut instinct says it won't. China as an idea has become bigger than the CCP.

But....the problem is that I'm not sure what would replace the CCP. I don't see democracy as a viable option for China. It's just too damn big. I think the United States shows how democracy begins to fray when you combine a very large population and stratified wealth. (I think India shows how it just comes apart at the seams when you have a HUGE population and massively stratified wealth).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 23, 2014, 10:05:28 pm
Everyone not the Russia/Ukraine thread better watch their asses, or they might find their thread has a new title by morning. :P

Dont worry, I'll just organize the American couch forces expedition thread and to liberate any oppressed threads and make their cultures boring.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 23, 2014, 10:18:51 pm
Maybe a federation of autonomous (or semi-autonomous) states? Then again, I doubt it would work any better than the EU.

Still though, other than the areas with large numbers of minorities and Tibet (which would undoubtly spring to independence), I don't see China easily splitting into autonomous states. The culture variation between someone in Shanghai and far southern (or maybe northern) China or someone from western China vs eastern China (not all the way to Tibet) isn't as great as going across Europe, but it's far from homogenous.

Then again RedKing would have greatly more experience on the cultures of China than I do. And yes I'm aware of the regional language differences like Cantonese vs Mandarin.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 23, 2014, 11:19:55 pm
Yeah, linguistic differences would be the primary cleavage plane, followed by broad cultural groupings into four categories:

1. South China (centered around Guangdong)
2. East China (centered around Shanghai)
3. North China ("centered" around Beijing, even if not geographically)
4. West China (centered around Chongqing)

It's a testament to Mao that the differences between these aren't big enough to really envision a breakup along those lines. In a lot of ways, he was like a second Qin Shi Huang Di (the First Emperor) -- an iron-fisted bastard who nonetheless did have a profound and potentially positive long-term impact on China (along with with all the incredibly deleterious short-term impacts).


But even with all that Mao did to centralize power in China, it's impossible to rule a country that big and that full of people without massive amounts of delegation. There's a joke that the first three Chinese inventions were fire, cultivated rice, and bureaucracy. (Another version says "ink, paper and paperwork").

There is somewhere around one government official for every 100 citizens in China. In a country of over 1 billion.

Let that sink in for a minute.
 
The government of the PRC is larger than the entire population of Belgium. Because of that, power is incredibly diluted. For all the rhetoric in the West of its being an oppressive, totalitarian system it's actually damn near impossible for the government to get things done sometimes. If it's oppressive, it's more in the Kafka-esque sense than the menace of an Orwellian Big Brother. Yes, if you are deemed a "threat to the state", they have immense power they can bring to bear. But in the notion of constantly monitoring for "thoughtcrimes"....well, the Great Firewall gets bypassed by tens of millions of Chinese on a daily basis. The CCP knows this. But what can they do? Arrest everyone in the country who knows how to use a proxy server? (which is quite a lot of young people).

Honestly, they don't give a shit. You want to surf porn? Knock yourself out.
Look up forbidden subjects on Wikipedia? Whatever.
Write forum posts discussing these topics with other Chinese? NOW they have a problem.
Start printing and distributing leaflets about Tienanmen/Falun Gong/Tibetan independence/government corruption/etc? Say hello to your new friends from the PSB.

Knowledge doesn't bother them. It's people acting on that knowledge and organizing into groups that bothers them. And with good reason. China has been overthrown by revolutionary movements somewhere around 14 times since 221BC. And that's only counting the successful ones. When you add in the major rebellions that failed (Taiping Rebellion, Boxer Rebellion, Yellow Turban Rebellion, An Lushan Rebellion etc.) it's probably more like 40-50 attempts. And every time there's a major rebellion, millions die. The Taiping Rebellion alone, by some estimates, was deadlier than all casualties in WWI combined. It's with that in mind that EVERY dynasty, including the Communist era, governs with the preservation of order and stability as their paramount goal. The problem is that in achieving that, they stagnated innovation and development for centuries. The 20th century saw them play catch-up in a big way, but at a huge cost.

The big question now is how much they can continue to develop forward economically and technologically before order and stability are in serious jeopardy (some would say it already is).
And second, how will the governing authorities react to that? By reforms and trying to "soft land" the country into a slower, sustainable track of development? By throwing on the brakes and implementing stagnation again? Or by racing forward even more and accelerating the collapse?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on April 24, 2014, 03:28:12 am
Would democracy be that bad? If we imagine a 'devo max' scenarion, what does it matter if the central government is an impotent clusterfuck, if the regional governments are actually doing the job?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 24, 2014, 12:15:49 pm
The problem is that historically local governments in China are far worse than the central government. Corruption, embezzlement, bribery, just plain bureaucratic inertia.

This is one reason why the corrupt local magistrate/governor is a stock villain in Chinese cinema. There's a deeply ingrained notion that "if the Emperor/President/Premier/etc. just knew the real story, they'd save us!"

To some extent, this is quite true. To another extent, this notion is encouraged by the central government because it provides a convenient scapegoat when shit goes wrong. Which leads to a vicious cycle wherein local governments do anything they can to cover up malfeasance, including murder.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on April 24, 2014, 12:39:04 pm
But surely democratic local government could fix that issue?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Owlbread on April 24, 2014, 12:45:00 pm
Posting to advocate the independence of Kukiland.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 24, 2014, 12:46:10 pm
The problem is that historically local governments in China are far worse than the central government. Corruption, embezzlement, bribery, just plain bureaucratic inertia.

Remember the time a local government in south china just killed off millions of dogs, including pets, after like 3 people died of rabies?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 24, 2014, 01:39:34 pm
But surely democratic local government could fix that issue?
The idea that China pushes is that the local governments are democratic, within a one-party system. Which is of course almost complete bullshit, but you do sometimes have local people formally running as CCP who do represent the people and have a democratic mandate, just not often.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on April 24, 2014, 01:45:22 pm
Yeah, for local, but I was thinking more about provincial government actually.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Darvi on April 24, 2014, 02:07:29 pm
DID SOMEBODY SAY COOKIELAND?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Owlbread on April 24, 2014, 02:24:01 pm
DID SOMEBODY SAY COOKIELAND?

Truly the greatest country.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on April 24, 2014, 02:31:17 pm
PTW to not miss when China will invade Russia
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Owlbread on April 24, 2014, 02:34:35 pm
PTW to not miss when China will invade Russia

To protect ethnic Chinese, no doubt.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on April 24, 2014, 02:39:10 pm
PTW to not miss when China will invade Russia
To protect ethnic Chinese, no doubt.
And Chinese speaking people
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 24, 2014, 04:18:13 pm
The problem is that historically local governments in China are far worse than the central government. Corruption, embezzlement, bribery, just plain bureaucratic inertia.

Remember the time a local government in south china just killed off millions of dogs, including pets, after like 3 people died of rabies?
Ahh yes. That's another issue -- there's a certain amount of "There I Fixed It" in local government as well.


One of my favorite examples was an incident in Yunnan where the local Bureau of Agriculture and Forestry was told their county needed to be greener, especially a decommissioned quarry in the side of a mountain. They were given funds to "green" the mountain (presumably for the purchase of seedlings and cost of labor to plant them). Instead, they did this:

(http://www.zonaeuropa.com/20070309_01.jpg)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on April 24, 2014, 04:37:14 pm
The problem is that historically local governments in China are far worse than the central government. Corruption, embezzlement, bribery, just plain bureaucratic inertia.

Remember the time a local government in south china just killed off millions of dogs, including pets, after like 3 people died of rabies?
Ahh yes. That's another issue -- there's a certain amount of "There I Fixed It" in local government as well.


One of my favorite examples was an incident in Yunnan where the local Bureau of Agriculture and Forestry was told their county needed to be greener, especially a decommissioned quarry in the side of a mountain. They were given funds to "green" the mountain (presumably for the purchase of seedlings and cost of labor to plant them). Instead, they did this:

~INVISIBLEIMGSNIP~

Your image was hotlinked, so it couldn't be seen without opening your post and copy-pasting the URL manually.  Though, that is rather amusing...

(http://i.imgur.com/wqFwe6S.jpg)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 24, 2014, 04:55:19 pm
So they, uh, painted it? Honestly, it looks more like a giant vomited something mint green. I wouldn't be surprised if their method of painting was to just dump green paint down there.

Theres also all those new cities (I don't know how many, but they exist) which are too expensive for 99.99% to even afford to move into.

I can understand them wanting to be able to house the ever growing amount of Chinese flocking to the cities, but complete cities that may as well be ghost towns? Kind of defeats the purpose. I'm pretty sure there are things that can be done that don't involve building entire cities just to do a 'what does nature do to abandoned modern cities' experiment.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 24, 2014, 06:16:54 pm
Theres also all those new cities (I don't know how many, but they exist) which are too expensive for 99.99% to even afford to move into.

I can understand them wanting to be able to house the ever growing amount of Chinese flocking to the cities, but complete cities that may as well be ghost towns? Kind of defeats the purpose. I'm pretty sure there are things that can be done that don't involve building entire cities just to do a 'what does nature do to abandoned modern cities' experiment.

That's not a government thing, that's a private real estate thing.  They need an investment for their oodles of money so they build a high end condo as a place to store value.  It's like people buying gold, they're just using it to store wealth (or as a foolish speculative bid.)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: nenjin on April 24, 2014, 06:21:30 pm
Theres also all those new cities (I don't know how many, but they exist) which are too expensive for 99.99% to even afford to move into.

I can understand them wanting to be able to house the ever growing amount of Chinese flocking to the cities, but complete cities that may as well be ghost towns? Kind of defeats the purpose. I'm pretty sure there are things that can be done that don't involve building entire cities just to do a 'what does nature do to abandoned modern cities' experiment.

That's not a government thing, that's a private real estate thing.  They need an investment for their oodles of money so they build a high end condo as a place to store value.  It's like people buying gold, they're just using it to store wealth (or as a foolish speculative bid.)

I mean, is there no demand for housing that they can capitalize on? Building a high-end condo that remains abandoned does not seem like a sane way to invest your wealth, unless you're managing to make money by doing so. I'd suspect, illegally.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 24, 2014, 06:31:25 pm
AFAIK we've always been at war with Eastasia
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 24, 2014, 06:33:32 pm
Theres also all those new cities (I don't know how many, but they exist) which are too expensive for 99.99% to even afford to move into.

I can understand them wanting to be able to house the ever growing amount of Chinese flocking to the cities, but complete cities that may as well be ghost towns? Kind of defeats the purpose. I'm pretty sure there are things that can be done that don't involve building entire cities just to do a 'what does nature do to abandoned modern cities' experiment.

That's not a government thing, that's a private real estate thing.  They need an investment for their oodles of money so they build a high end condo as a place to store value.  It's like people buying gold, they're just using it to store wealth (or as a foolish speculative bid.)

I mean, is there no demand for housing that they can capitalize on? Building a high-end condo that remains abandoned does not seem like a sane way to invest your wealth, unless you're managing to make money by doing so. I'd suspect, illegally.

There is demand, it's just that the prices are unaffordable by most people.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 24, 2014, 06:43:43 pm
Theres also all those new cities (I don't know how many, but they exist) which are too expensive for 99.99% to even afford to move into.

I can understand them wanting to be able to house the ever growing amount of Chinese flocking to the cities, but complete cities that may as well be ghost towns? Kind of defeats the purpose. I'm pretty sure there are things that can be done that don't involve building entire cities just to do a 'what does nature do to abandoned modern cities' experiment.

That's not a government thing, that's a private real estate thing.  They need an investment for their oodles of money so they build a high end condo as a place to store value.  It's like people buying gold, they're just using it to store wealth (or as a foolish speculative bid.)
It's a bit of both. There is a government urbanization plan which calls for 80% urban population by 2050, because 80% is still over 1 billion people. And rather than create metropolises all over China (in part because a not-insubstantial portion of China's land area isn't really habitable), they're trying to create three megacity complexes:

Bohai Bay (Beijing-Tianjin-numerous other cities)
Yellow River Delta (Shanghai-Hangzhou-Nanjing-Suzhou-numerous other cities)
Pearl River Delta (Guangzhou-Shenzhen-numerous other cities)

Each of these would house about 340 million. The idea is that rather than having to build roads, sewers, electricity, etc. across millions and millions of square miles of China, they'd just have to concentrate their efforts in three areas. Of course, you'll need roads with 52 lanes, nine-decker bridges, and sewer systems capable of handling the entire output of the US population in an area the size of the Northeast Corridor (Boston-New York-Philadelphia). These megacities seem destined to drown in their own filth and/or die from lack of sufficient infrastructure to handle things like food and water distribution.

But they're building them anyways. One thing that should be noted is that the vast majority of the population doesn't have freedom of movement the way Americans and Europeans are accustomed to. If you're Chinese, you are on a census list that has your home village (called the hukou system). You are not legally allowed to move somewhere else without government approval. Tens of millions do so every year anyhow (the liukou, or "floating people" -- internal illegal immigrants to the big cities). The few situations where you get more or less a free pass to move are:

1. University education.
2. Being given a job in another location.
2. Moving to live with family who are already legally in the other location.

This is a big part of why parents push their kids so damn hard to get accepted into a prestigious university like Beihua. Because it means the kid can move from Rice Paddy Village #763,819 to the smoky jewel of Beijing (or Nanjing or Shanghai or wherever). And then THEY can move there. Because even a shitty job in the cities pays more than being a farmer and means access to a lot more things like electricity, plumbing, TVs, etc.

So real estate speculation doesn't work quite so well in China. People can't just start migrating to another area because housing prices are attractive or the environment is cleaner, or what have you. Although, the hukou system is one of the areas targeted for reform. A considerable number of people are calling for it to be abolished altogether.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: nenjin on April 24, 2014, 06:56:49 pm
Quote
A considerable number of people are calling for it to be abolished altogether.

Kinda doubt that will happen until the mega-cities are at least on the verge of habitable. Having several million people migrate at the same time under their own steam would be chaos. Rampant homelessness, even more overburdened services, crime.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 24, 2014, 07:02:34 pm
Is the Hukou system a product of Mao's revolution? It doesn't seem like that would have existed before then. It also seems like a communist thing to do.

Although, I don't know how much freedom of movement they had before Mao's revolution.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 24, 2014, 08:05:43 pm
Actually, it's a system with ancient roots, predating even the unified Chinese empire. Can't effectively tax millions of people if you don't know where they are.

And yeah, it's not like the restriction on movement is a Communist invention.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on April 24, 2014, 08:10:39 pm
Sounds similar to the Feudalism system with serfs, or at least that's the closest comparison that I can think of.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: FearfulJesuit on April 24, 2014, 08:31:14 pm
RedKing, do you have any book suggestions for Chinese history? Possibly several; I'm looking to go more in-depth than what you'd get in a world history textbook or a 200-page summary.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 24, 2014, 09:01:40 pm
I mean, is there no demand for housing that they can capitalize on? Building a high-end condo that remains abandoned does not seem like a sane way to invest your wealth, unless you're managing to make money by doing so. I'd suspect, illegally.

They think the increased depreciation from having the place occupied would be more then the market price of the rent.  There's a fair amount of bigotry towards low wage workers involved in this reckoning.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 24, 2014, 10:56:51 pm
Sounds similar to the Feudalism system with serfs, or at least that's the closest comparison that I can think of.
Very similar, although without the feudal contract. Or I suppose you could say that the feudal "lords" in this case are bureaucrats rather than hereditary nobles. They're not tied to a specific agricultural plot but are tied more or less to a specific village.

Again though, millions of people break the registration laws every year. It's very similar to the illegal immigration situation in the US -- they're tolerated by many employers and even municipal governments because they're an easily exploited source of cheap labor. With far less rights than migrant workers have here. I've seen guys welding girders at all hours of the morning, 20-30 stories up on a bamboo scaffold with no safety harness and no welding goggles or mask. One of the US engineers I was with was utterly aghast at that, saying that most of them will probably have spot blindness within a couple of years. Industrial and construction accidents are very common, and there's virtually no social safety net for floating people. If you get maimed in an accident, there's no OSHA, there's no court that you're going to win a lawsuit in. Best you can hope for is to get deported back to your home village and maybe your family can tend to you for the rest of your crippled life (along with paying your fine for having illegally migrated).

Otherwise, you might end up crawling around on the streets begging for change like one guy I saw in Shanghai....no arms, no legs. Just a torso and a bowl in his mouth for change. Or another pair I saw in Beijing, a blind man (looked like an industrial accident...I mean, the *sockets* were empty) singing as a young girl (who was missing half her face...I'd say an industrial solvent spill) cleared his path through the subway car and held out a bowl. It's incredibly disturbing, and yet most urban Chinese have become numb to it. I was scolded on more than one occasion not to give any money because then all the beggars would come like seagulls flocking. Which is true, but......good god damn.  :-[



@FearfulJesuit: I'll have to look through my library and pick out a few. I have a lot that aren't so good, too. In general, avoid any with titles like "The Rising Dragon" or things like that. There's a cottage industry of fearmongering books about what a looming threat the PRC is, and they often have very skewed interpretations of Chinese history and politics.


@mainiac: I don't think that's accurate at all. There were a lot of investors who sunk money into housing because in the late 90's there was a serious ramp-up in housing prices in places like Shanghai and Shenzhen because of a slew of young professionals emerged with money to spend and looking for apartments to rent. People who owned real estate when that began became filthy rich. So lots of these nouveau riche thought they'd try that too. But then the housing bubble overheated and the number of professionals plateaued. Not much different than what happened in the US in some places -- demand didn't keep up with projections. But after all the work that went into getting the permits, hiring the construction company, getting the materials, distributing the various kickbacks to grease the system, etc.....it's frankly cheaper to go ahead and build it than to scratch the plans altogether. At least then you *might* get lucky and have some tenants. Sort of a sunk-cost fallacy, but not that fallacious in this case because of the nature of guanxi (favors). Even if you're wasting money, you're gaining favors that you can cash in somewhere down the road.

Investing in China is still quite risky because of the arbitrary nature of government regulations and the fact that contract law is malleable in Chinese courts. What we would call criminal malfeasance and fraud here, they'd call business as usual. And investor savvy just isn't there in many cases.

The Shanghai stock exchange is another example. Most people I talked to likened it to playing pai jiu -- people just threw money in and crossed their fingers (and probably muttered a few Buddhist prayers) to see if they'd get lucky. It was like a game of chance but where skill can make a difference.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Duuvian on April 25, 2014, 02:08:13 am
RedKing, do you have any book suggestions for Chinese history? Possibly several; I'm looking to go more in-depth than what you'd get in a world history textbook or a 200-page summary.

If you'd like to read about 1950-1980ish Chinese agricultural reforms there is a book by a guy who's last name is Edmund or Edmunds (I think). I can try to find it around the house if you'd like to know the title and author; I thought it was well done from a neutral viewpoint. It's a collection of studies of local economies and labor practices near villages in a few provinces in China visited by various economists, some of them Jesuit priests working with a Californian University if I remember correctly. I found it in my Grandpa's basement.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 25, 2014, 02:11:54 am
@mainiac: I don't think that's accurate at all. There were a lot of investors who sunk money into housing because in the late 90's there was a serious ramp-up in housing prices in places like Shanghai and Shenzhen because of a slew of young professionals emerged with money to spend and looking for apartments to rent. People who owned real estate when that began became filthy rich. So lots of these nouveau riche thought they'd try that too. But then the housing bubble overheated and the number of professionals plateaued. Not much different than what happened in the US in some places -- demand didn't keep up with projections. But after all the work that went into getting the permits, hiring the construction company, getting the materials, distributing the various kickbacks to grease the system, etc.....it's frankly cheaper to go ahead and build it than to scratch the plans altogether. At least then you *might* get lucky and have some tenants. Sort of a sunk-cost fallacy, but not that fallacious in this case because of the nature of guanxi (favors). Even if you're wasting money, you're gaining favors that you can cash in somewhere down the road.

I feel like we are saying the same thing here.  An empty building is an asset even if it isn't going to be rented anytime soon.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 25, 2014, 06:51:37 am
But I don't see any kind of bigotry involved. The kind of hi-rises that were being talked about, they were never intended to be anything other than upscale housing for "middle class" urbanites.

The way you wrote it, it sounds like "Eww! I don't want *those* people living in my building, they'll wreck the place!"

Now, there's been some separate incidents where the government constructed housing for people being displaced by construction (the Three Gorges Dam for example) only to find that many of the farmers won't accept the buyout deal because they're being asked/forced to give up their agricultural land for cheap. Often this is because the local government is colluding with developers to get the land for them cheap.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on April 25, 2014, 06:55:42 am
Wait, doesn't the local government own the land? I though all those peasants had were leases.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 25, 2014, 07:22:56 am
Yes, and no. The village collectively owns the land, which is then managed by the local government. So if the local official decides that the village should sell a portion of their land to someone that wants to build a factory, the farmers don't get much say in the matter. In theory, the official should be getting the best deal possible for the farmers. But when the factory owner waves a stack of yuan in their face and promises to make their brother the factory manager....

This is of course illegal, and the CCP actually does take that kind of corruption seriously. Officials have been executed for such things. Which is why the local governments come down like a ton of bricks on anyone trying to fight them or expose them. There's the other issue that corruption scandals make the Party look bad. So higher-ups are then inclined to hush up the whole thing, even as they're trying to stamp out corruption. Because if *all* the local corruption were known it could jeopardize support for the Party and create civil unrest. And remember the Prime Directive of Chinese politics -- Preserve order and stability. There's also the fact that if your subordinate did something like this, you're in trouble too because you're responsible for them. And they were probably cutting you in on the deal to have you look the other way.

Its this schizophrenic approach to tackling corruption that is one of China's biggest problems, IMHO. I understand the dynamics of it, but the culture of protecting one's ass has got to change. Its also why the central government comes up with good ideas which then never get implemented.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on April 25, 2014, 08:33:40 am
PTW :V
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Scoops Novel on April 25, 2014, 05:44:24 pm
Bringing up pollution, this was recently announced by the Chinese government, which is to say 1 fifth of their arable land is polluted. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-27076645

I'd like to request that each of us as far as we are comfortable states our experience and relevant knowledge of East Asia, as we wont just be rambling on about current events (which i think is only loosely what we're browsing this for) and will be able to direct the conversation somewhere useful for all concerned. Redking gave a good example in the OP. I've picked up this and that from media, but nothing concrete.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 25, 2014, 09:04:29 pm
Bringing up pollution, this was recently announced by the Chinese government, which is to say 1 fifth of their arable land is polluted. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-27076645

Interesting bit from that article:
Quote
"Pollution is severe in three major industrial zones, the Yangtze River Delta in east China, the Pearl River Delta in south China and the northeast corner that used to be a heavy industrial hub," the agency said.

Remember where I said the three planned megacity complexes were?  :-\

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: 10ebbor10 on April 26, 2014, 02:30:26 am
Well duh. China has chronic population problems, by stuffing their citizens into heavily polluted areas, they reduce their lifetime, and free up valuable land for food production.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Propman on April 26, 2014, 04:52:15 am
>Not listing the Philippines in OP.

:(
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 26, 2014, 07:52:43 am
>Not listing the Philippines in OP.

:(
Oversight corrected.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on April 30, 2014, 10:35:26 pm
Bumping thread to add this item:

Terrorist Attack in Xinjiang kills 3, injures 79. (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/china-media-blast-shakes-xinjiang-train-station-23528479)

Quote
The official Xinhua News Agency quoted eyewitnesses as saying at least two blasts went off at the South Station in the regional capital of Urumqi on Wednesday night, while a large group of knife-wielding attackers went after passengers.
  :(
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on April 30, 2014, 10:53:36 pm
That's what they get for taking away the guns.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on April 30, 2014, 10:58:02 pm
That's pretty impressive, actually.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 14, 2014, 02:41:18 pm
Quick update:

In the last week, a Chinese oil drilling rig began construction in a portion of the South China Sea claimed by both the PRC and Vietnam. When Vietnamese Coast Guard vessels attempted to interfere, the Chinese vessels rammed them and/or doused them with high-pressure water cannons (http://globalnation.inquirer.net/103768/vietnam-says-chinese-ships-rammed-its-vessels).

In retaliation today, Vietnamese protesters torched and vandalized at least 15 factories (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/14/vietnamese-workers-torch-foreign-factories-over-chinese-sea-claims) thought to be Chinese-owned (and several that were apparently Taiwanese or South Korean-owned as well).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 14, 2014, 03:14:27 pm
Maybe agree to share the profits from the land that is claimed by China and Vietnam? Probably wouldn't work politically though.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Frumple on May 14, 2014, 03:18:21 pm
Yeeaaahh... I rather imagine that would entail accepting that the other party has some degree of legitimate claim to the land, which... isn't something you see happen in contested land claims.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 14, 2014, 03:21:10 pm
I suppose the best solution would be to divide said contested territory exactly in half. But then again, people will just argue where that exactly half point is.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 14, 2014, 03:39:59 pm
"Okay, I'll take the half with the oil, and you can have the other half."

Until oil/gold/unobtanium is discovered in that half. Then they'll claim that half too, agreement be damned.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 16, 2014, 04:29:53 am
I have yet to see it in person, but now that I'm in Taiwan I've learned that the student protestors are more or less blockading the sitting government until they resend their plans to pass a bill that will give the PRC economic dominion over Taiwan at the latter's expense. Working in shifts and everything. Might see it when we visit Taipei in a few days.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Owlbread on May 16, 2014, 07:13:12 am
My stance on Taiwanese politics is to support the Pan-Green Coalition in securing Taiwanese independence. I know of course that this would lead to conflict with China, but the current system simply cannot go on.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 16, 2014, 07:55:04 am
Which party in Taiwan classifies as Green? The DPP?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Owlbread on May 16, 2014, 07:59:05 am
Which party in Taiwan classifies as Green? The DPP?

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP), Taiwan Constitution Association (TCA). There is also the Green Party in Taiwan but they're associated with Global Greens/Asia-Pacific Greens Federation, not the Pan-Green Coalition.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on May 16, 2014, 11:24:49 am
I think it's "Green" because the others are Blue.

Edit: Though apparently Green was chosen in part because of the environmental parties. Huh. Welp.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 16, 2014, 01:57:56 pm
Which party in Taiwan classifies as Green? The DPP?

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), Taiwan Independence Party (TAIP), Taiwan Constitution Association (TCA). There is also the Green Party in Taiwan but they're associated with Global Greens/Asia-Pacific Greens Federation, not the Pan-Green Coalition.

That's an interesting coalition. The DPP has moderated its stance over the last decade and includes the lovely Jedi mind trick that while they're in favor of independence, Taiwan is already de facto independent and therefore there is no need to declare independence. That's a stance that the PRC has shown being able to live with.

The TSU on the other hand, is ardently in favor of declaring independence and waving it Beijing's face like a pair of dirty socks.





While it's somewhat outside the "East Asia" sphere, I think it's hugely important to the region that the Congress Party is about to lose power in India (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/05/16/india-opposition-headed-for-election-landslide/).

While I don't think it's good for any party (or family) to have a stranglehold on power for decades (PRI in Mexico, KMT in Taiwan, Congress Party and the Gandhis in India, etc.) I'm also very much not a fan of the BJP. I think they might do a better job for India's economy in the short-term, but I worry about minority rights and their foreign policy.

 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ibot66 on May 17, 2014, 07:16:14 am
My personal position on Taiwan is that they should be completely independant from PRC influence, or that they should control part of china.
Of course, I am a filthy American imperialist dog.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 17, 2014, 05:26:39 pm
What is it about foreign chinese factories that makes them so torchable. Barely a day goes by without an oriental country flipping their shit because the PRC is pressing claims again. I hear the PM sent a mass text  message calling for peace, which is nice.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 18, 2014, 09:20:49 am
-clip-

I don't worry too much about minority rights in the short term. India's courts are powerful and will prevent the Government from shafting non-hindus too much.

Why are you worried about its foreign policy?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 19, 2014, 10:02:23 am
What is it about foreign chinese factories that makes them so torchable. Barely a day goes by without an oriental country flipping their shit because the PRC is pressing claims again. I hear the PM sent a mass text  message calling for peace, which is nice.

China is becoming the America of East Asia. Which is to say, the overbearing imperialist pig-dog whose flag everybody loves to burn when they want somebody to blame. Yet another area where we're outsourcing. xD


@Sheb:
I would not be at all surprised to see things heat up over Jammu and Kashmir now that the BJP is in charge. And while relations with Pakistan aren't great to begin with, I think they'll sour even more. India's nuke program will probably get a shot in the arm, and I think you'll see more of a triangulation by India vis-a-vis China and the US. India wants to learn from China's boom, and sees them as more accomodating to leaving Indian domestic affairs out of trade deals. But they also have to balance that against long-standing border disputes and the potential for a Chinese blue-water navy to pose a threat to critical trade lanes. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indian Navy get a boost in funding and construction either. And their fledgling space program.

If Modi can succeed in kickstarting the Indian economy, I don't think you're going to see a lot of that reinvested in social programs and infrastructure but rather in "macho" national symbols like the military, nukes, and the space program.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 19, 2014, 10:08:05 am
Did the Vietnamese go and accidentially burn a while bunch of other countries flags? At least that's the joke that seems to be poked at on polandball.

Also, a bit earlier this morning, the Feds announced proof that China has been spying on and hacking US companies. Didn't listen to the details of it because I had to catch the trolley to class.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 19, 2014, 10:18:29 am
Did the Vietnamese go and accidentially burn a while bunch of other countries flags? At least that's the joke that seems to be poked at on polandball.

Also, a bit earlier this morning, the Feds announced proof that China has been spying on and hacking US companies. Didn't listen to the details of it because I had to catch the trolley to class.
They burned some other countries' factories. Because, y'know.....Chinese, Taiwanese, South Koreans.....they all look the same. >_>



And the bit about China spying and hacking US companies is like revealing proof that the sun is hot. That's been an open secret for several years now (and it goes both ways, as evidenced by the Snowden revelation about the NSA hacking into Huawei and installing backdoor code in the firmware of their routers).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 19, 2014, 10:32:21 am
I see it as more like them providing undeniable proof or something, politically anyway. And yes I know it goes both ways and China has accused us of hacking them before.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 20, 2014, 10:24:08 am
Thailand under martial law. I'll post more on this when I get a chance, but it's not a huge surprise. Thailand is one of those countries like Pakistan and Turkey that seems to perpetually go through cycles of political clusterfuck until the army steps in to call a timeout.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: majikero on May 20, 2014, 10:37:17 am
Philippines issued urged an evacuation of OFWs because of lingering fear of Martial Law from the Marcos Administration. Comments from the news site says that they actually feel safer about it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 20, 2014, 11:25:34 am
Okay, so here's the skinny on what's going on in Thailand:

Like so many countries, there's a political dispute which has polarized into two camps (conveniently color-coded):

-- The Red Shirts: Primarily rural and poor, looking for increased social spending, government reforms, and a stronger government and weaker monarchy. Worth noting here that Thailand is a constitutional monarchy where lese majeste is still a thing; i.e. you can go to jail for criticizing or disrespecting the King. (For all that, the King himself has said he needs to be criticized if he's wrong and seems like an all-around okay guy.)

-- The Yellow Shirts: Primarily middle-class urbanites, capitalist, pro-royalist, deeply suspicious (and with some good reason) of the recent government because of a history of corruption and nepotism.


Backstory:
In the mid 2000-s, a billionaire reformer named Thaksin Shinawatra became PM of Thailand, and his supporters became the Reds. While his land and economic reforms were wildly popular with the rural poor, they pissed off a lot of business interests in Thailand, which eventually led to a military ouster in 2006 and Thaksin going into self-imposed exile to avoid arrest on corruption charges. There was considerable unrest at the time as the Red supporters saw this as an illegal coup. His political party was also dissolved.

Despite this, candidates allied with the Red Shirts continued to win general elections, usually to have their candidates shortly thereafter found guilty of some crime or another (often on questionable grounds) by the Thai Constitutional Court and tossed out of office. (One was found guilty of "conflict of interest" because he was the host of a popular TV cooking show.)

In 2008, the Democrat Party (the main Yellow Shirt party) was actually able to form a coalition government. By early 2009, the Red Shirts were out on the streets in force, arguing that the Yellows had essentially abused their control of the Constitutional Court (which is supposed to be non-partisan, like the US Supreme Court) to invalidate democratic elections until they could get a result they wanted. In 2010, these protests took an ugly turn when a firefight actually broke out between Thai Army units during an attempt to clear a protest. 87 were killed and 1300+ wounded.

In 2011, a Red Shirt-allied party won and the new PM was Yingluck Shinawatra -- the younger sister of deposed ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra.

In late 2013, a former deputy PM from the 2008 Yellow Shirt government started publicly calling for an end to "the Thaksin regime" and encouraging street protests. At the same time, Yingluck's government attempted to pass a blanket amnesty for all people who had been charged with crimes relating to the 2010 unrest. This was amended at the last minutes to include *all* political crimes, including her brother's 2006 corruption charges. Many thought this was just clearing the way for him to return to the country and run for election again (which many Yellow Shirts saw/see as hopelessly rigged), and the protests ballooned.

The Yellow Shirts began demanding that the government be dissolved, and replaced with an unelected "People's Council", stating that elections could not be trusted because the Shinawatra family's influence was so pervasive in the Thai political system (except, it would seem, for the Constitutional Court). In response, Yingluck dissolved Parliament in February and stated there would be new elections.

On May 7th, the Constitutional Court ruled that Yingluck had abused her power by replacing a high-level official with Thaksin Shinawatra's brother-in-law and would have to step down as President. The Red Shirts saw this as yet another "judicial coup" and took to the streets even as the Yellow Shirts were on the streets demanding that the entire damn government be dissolved and replaced with this unelected body.

Unrest escalated into violence over a couple of weeks until finally last night, the Thai Army decided to institute martial law (without informing the government, apparently) to put a halt to things.




So....yeah. Thailand is a bit of a basket case politically. Both sides have some legitimacy to their complaints, and yet both sides obviously have some egregious abuses of power to answer for.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 20, 2014, 11:43:42 am


In 2008, after loosing the elections by 233 seats to 165 , the Democrat Party (the main Yellow Shirt party) was actually able to form a coalition government since the Constitutional Court had removed the red PM for hosting a cooking show, banned his party and removed all his MPs from office.

FTFY

I'm strongly pro-Red on this issue (I actually got red t-shirts I bought at the 2009 protests lying somewhere :p). Shinawatra was a corrupt son of a bitch, but for better or worse he was one of the first to listen to the majority of Thai population rather than cater to the Bangkok elite. The results shows: time and time again the reds, in one form or another, have won elections. Now, Yingluck Shinawatra did some things that weren't politically sound (the amnesty should have been dropped for now, and her rice-buying scheme was a big mess), but she still represent the people. The Yellows don't. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on May 20, 2014, 11:45:45 am
PTW. Beware of the Chavez effect, Sheb - but then again, I know next to nothing about Thailand.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: majikero on May 20, 2014, 11:49:20 am
Why is the Army the sensible one here? Also, who does the king support?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 20, 2014, 11:54:06 am
Yeah, I don't really know enough to have a dog in the fight. Like I said, it seems like both sides have shot themselves in the foot so many times that nobody has a moral high ground. And as Helgoland points out, just because you're incredibly popular with the majority doesn't make you right or mean you're not corrupt or trampling on others' rights.

Or to make a historical analogy, the European liberals in the 1848 waves of revolution were solidly outnumbered by the rural royalist population and outgunned by the aristocratic elites who controlled the governments and armies (which is the main reason the revolutions failed). You can argue that they were speaking for their own narrow interests rather than their kingdom/duchy/principate as a whole.


I really do think the comparison to Turkey and Pakistan is a valid one. In both those countries, civil politics has often been a contest of "Who Wants To Pillage The Treasury Next?" and some of the best governance has been by the army (although not without its own problems, especially human rights abuses). I don't see the Thai Army hanging around or appointing a general as President, though.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 20, 2014, 11:55:10 am
Not sure what you mean about the Chavez effect. That  a majority at the polls excuse bad comportment? The thing is, by and large what Shinawatra did was pretty cool. Stuff like the 50-baht scheme (universal healthcare basically) for example. And AFAIK, his governing has been pretty much free from the kind of heavy-handed repression Chavez did.

Majikero: Who said the army was sensible? As for the King, it's bizarre. Everyone loves him, or at least pretends to. Everyone also says the other camp doesn't like him (Both the Reds and Yellows have lèse majesté lawsuits against the other camp).

Now, the King is supposed to be neutral, to the point that his official color switched from yellow to pink after the yellow shirt decided to drape themselves in his color. However, the royal establishment is siding with the yellows. The King is also reverred, but very old, and no one really like his son, so it'll be a clusterfuck when he dies.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 20, 2014, 12:00:17 pm
Yeah, it's interesting how much the royal reverence thing applies even overseas. You step into any (and I mean *any*) Thai restaurant around here, and there's a picture of the King somewhere near the cash register, adorned with flowers and the nicest picture frame in the whole joint.

It's also a bit surreal when the King himself is saying "No, really....please criticize me if I fuck up. I'm HUMAN." Almost makes me wonder if someone would charge the King with lese majeste. But then, by bringing suit against the King, they'd be guilty themselves. It starts to get into absurdist territory, like the "Jehovah" bit from Life of Brian...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trapezohedron on May 20, 2014, 12:01:59 pm
There's too much of a grey area to have a side to pick on. Supporting the majority is good, provided that the majority actually needs help (and they do), however as is stated, the ways they're doing it is questionable. Going by the facts in this page, I can also see some Shinawatra attempts to minimize business competition, but it is irrelevant at this point. This of course naturally would piss the Yellow Shirts, who only have themselves as their main priority.

Is the Chavez effect about economic mismanagement?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: nenjin on May 20, 2014, 12:11:26 pm
I have a hard time supporting anyone that is engaged in corruption and graft, even if they have the majority support of the people. I'm not saying the Yellow Shirts are any better; they appear to be playing at the same game themselves. I guess from the perspective of the poor rural voter, they don't give a shit what Shinawatra does as long as their lives improve.

Quote
Is the Chavez effect about economic mismanagement?

I think it's about the cult of personality that grows around "the people's leader", where voters are willing to overlook a lot of the fine details as long as the candidate demonstrably does something in their favor.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: misko27 on May 20, 2014, 12:13:50 pm
Why is the Army the sensible one here? Also, who does the king support?
Armies are usually pretty sensible, which was why we were all happy when Egypt's took over. Of course they recently went off the deep end, but the point stands. It's when the army is already in power that they go nuts.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 20, 2014, 12:14:46 pm


It's even worse there. Every movie at the theater begins with the Royal Anthem (stand up or get out), while some sickening propaganda film plays (I remember one where a kid was running with flowers, stopping to fix a bridge on the way before putting them in front of a giant portrait of the King to thank him for making it rain on his family's field - the king spent some money on researching cloud fertilization-. You have slogans like "The King is the Heart and Inspiration of All Good Things".

Also, some of thise lèse-majesté lawsuits are hilarious. At some points the Red Shirts passed a law that was then struck down at the Supreme Court after the Yellows sued. The Yellow then sued the Reds for having sent a defective law to the King (he needs to sign laws much like a US president). And the Reds sued the Yellows for having sued a law signed by the King.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 20, 2014, 12:16:06 pm
I can't speak for Helgoland, but I think he was referring to the fact that Chavez was wildly popular with most of Venezuela (because of populist rhetoric and redistribution), and in turn used that popularity to give legitimacy to his actions, even the ones that were illegal by Venezuela's own laws.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trapezohedron on May 20, 2014, 12:24:53 pm
This is kind of off-topic, but can I request for a source for that? Not that I don't believe, but it would be good to stock up some events for use as comparisons on later debates I might have.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 20, 2014, 12:26:08 pm
Source for what?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trapezohedron on May 20, 2014, 12:27:09 pm
Chavez Effect.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on May 20, 2014, 07:18:37 pm
I think I just coined an expression... I meant Westerners running after some popular politician in a third-world country merely because he is popular, and not because he's doing a good job. Nowadays it's a commonly held opinion that Chavez ruined the Venezoelan economy, but he used to be quite popular with first-world intellectuals because of his leftist stance and wide support in the populace.

It was really 'Sheb, beware' and not 'Sheb, the Thai should beware'.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on May 20, 2014, 08:34:51 pm
I think I just coined an expression... I meant Westerners running after some popular politician in a third-world country merely because he is popular, and not because he's doing a good job. Nowadays it's a commonly held opinion that Chavez ruined the Venezoelan economy, but he used to be quite popular with first-world intellectuals because of his leftist stance and wide support in the populace.
Oh, I thought he still is popular with that crowd.  Also, thanks to the very convenient timing of his death just before the economy really went off the rails, we can almost certainly expect to see Maduro and other less senior political leaders being blamed for the institutional defects of the system that got their start under Chavez; I would expect to hear "If only Chavez had lived longer..." in at least ten years time, if not now. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on May 20, 2014, 08:36:05 pm
We could call that the 'Lenin effect'.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: XXSockXX on May 20, 2014, 08:47:12 pm
We could call that the 'Lenin effect'.
That is totally a thing (I mean Westerners worshipping a popular 3rd world politician). And the irony can have several layers I think, like when you meet people with Che Guevara wallets.

Actually, I might be referring to the Chavez effect, so continue coining expressions.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 21, 2014, 01:14:35 am
Well, given that I started my statement by "Thaksin Shinawatra's place is in jail but..." I think I'm safe from the Chavez effect. :p
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 21, 2014, 01:42:48 pm
China signs 30-year deal to get natural gas from Gazprom. (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/world/asia/china-russia-gas-deal.html?hpw&rref=business&_r=0)

This gives Russia leverage with Europe, in that they have alternate markets and wouldn't take as big of a hit from cutting off the pipes to the EU, and it gives China much-needed cleaner energy. China's appetite for energy is voracious and growing, and Beijing has realized for some time that they're killing the country by using so much coal (much of it bituminous coal, which is the worst kind for pollution). It also diversifies the range of countries they're reliant on for energy imports, which gives them more diplomatic leverage.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 21, 2014, 01:44:29 pm
Hardly surprising. This deal was in the pipelines (lol) for years. Still, Russia is only exporting a tiny fraction of the volume it sends to Europe. Still a win/win overall I'd say. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on May 21, 2014, 02:17:14 pm
Interesting that the price is being kept secret, though.  We know that Russia wanted China to match the prices that Europe was paying, and China wanted a significant discount since, among other things, they already are getting cheaper gas from Turkmenistan.  Even as late as earlier this week, there was still talk about these latest talks were on the verge of falling through just like all of the others because of the matter of price.  I wonder if Russia or China blinked first, given how the ongoing situation in Ukraine and Russian threats to cut the flow westward were steadily undermining Russia's bargaining position in the matter. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 21, 2014, 02:18:50 pm
That does seem to be the $400 billion dollar question. Putin has stated that the price is pegged to the price of oil, like their European contracts, but that doesn't mean that it's the same *ratio* of price.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Gervassen on May 21, 2014, 06:07:42 pm
The Shanxi coal business is certainly hard hit lately. You've got mining engineers not being paid for 3 months. Slowdown, mostly, but this kinda deal isn't any better news.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on May 21, 2014, 07:24:37 pm
Am I right in thinking this Russia China deal represents about 7% of the amount of natural gas russia sells to Europe?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: misko27 on May 21, 2014, 08:12:36 pm
Am I right in thinking this Russia China deal represents about 7% of the amount of natural gas russia sells to Europe?
It's certainly my impression. Not very helpful then beyond the symbolism of it, since Russia is hilariously dependent on Oil profit to remain in the black, and Europe suddenly up and going cold turkey would initiate self-destruct sequence.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: XXSockXX on May 21, 2014, 09:07:18 pm
According to this (http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/gasvertrag-russland-mit-china-folgen-fuer-europa-a-970941.html), Europe imports 130 billion m³ Russian gas per year and Turkey 40 billion, China will get 38. Also the gas China will get will have to come from eastern Siberia, not from western Siberia where the gas that goes to Europe comes from, because of the pipeline infrastructure. So it's not a big deal for Europe, certainly not a problem in the near future.

Also Russia only gets about 350 dollar per 1000 m³ from China, not the 400 they wanted initially, while Germany currently pays about 365. So it seems to be symbolic on Russia's part indeed (they also need to build the pipelines, which makes the deal less profitable for them), while the Chinese made a good deal.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on May 22, 2014, 03:39:53 am
Spoiler: heh (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 22, 2014, 03:56:12 am
Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas. As the European are moving away from Russian gas anyway, they need a new market.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: TamerVirus on May 22, 2014, 06:41:22 am
...and now Thailand's army has decided to coup the government. Expected?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Propman on May 22, 2014, 07:50:53 am
Clearly they shall all be imprisoned for criticising the king's authority.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on May 22, 2014, 10:19:48 am
Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.

Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: XXSockXX on May 22, 2014, 12:00:40 pm
Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.

Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
In the forseeable future probably yes, though it depends what the gas is used for.
If it is used for heating or as fuel it is way more convenient to use, also there are some industrial uses for it, if it is used to generate electrical power, it is much more replaceable.
Usage varies from country to country, for example Germany depends on gas for heating, but only gets 10% of it's electricity from gas, while it's 50% in Russia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: 10ebbor10 on May 22, 2014, 12:22:28 pm
Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.
Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
China's power consumption is massive, and in case of a major shift to renewables, then gas will be needed even more, in order stabilize the grid.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on May 22, 2014, 01:25:26 pm
Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.
Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
China's power consumption is massive, and in case of a major shift to renewables, then gas will be needed even more, in order stabilize the grid.
China is like a gigantic ravenous tortoise.  Considering that they are still consuming tons of coal.  (Though I guess they may be slowing down on that... slowly.)

...and now Thailand's army has decided to coup the government. Expected?
I find it kinda hilarious that RedKing posted about this just a few days ago... (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.msg5295683#msg5295683)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: 10ebbor10 on May 22, 2014, 01:31:47 pm
They're slowing down the procentual growth of coal as part of their energy mix, but in actual numbers it's still growing rapidly, and IIRC, faster than before.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on May 22, 2014, 02:06:39 pm
...and now Thailand's army has decided to coup the government. Expected?
I find it kinda hilarious that RedKing posted about this just a few days ago... (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.msg5295683#msg5295683)
Martial law =/= coup.

So yeah, Redking didn't talk about the coup, considering that it hadn't happened yet.

don'tbeajerk
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on May 22, 2014, 02:12:42 pm
Well, he does talk about events that somehow leads up to the coup...
(People can't compromise for shit, military says fuck it.)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on May 22, 2014, 06:14:41 pm
he has actually said its a coup now.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 22, 2014, 06:39:41 pm
Edit: Posted in the wrong thread. XD
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Darvi on May 22, 2014, 06:41:34 pm
Nah man, see, the troops are farther away now, so it takes longer for their orders to reach them. They only recently heard about it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 22, 2014, 06:49:32 pm
OOPS, posted that in the wrong thread! *facepalm* Wasn't even paying attention to what thread I was in.

In reference to my previous post that is, not this one.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 23, 2014, 11:52:13 am
Actually, the Thai coup caught me by surprise. I actually thought they were just going to wait for things to simmer down and then hand back control. But, it looks like even with the threat of martial law and a potential coup, the two factions couldn't come to any kind of agreement so the army felt it had no choice but to dissolve the caretaker government and call for new elections at some point in the future.

I kinda wish the US hadn't been so quick to jump on the "Boo hiss, bad army!" bandwagon, but I guess it's de rigeur -- if you claim to support democracy in all forms, you have to oppose coups even when they mostly make sense. Same reason we (lukewarmly) opposed the Egyptian coup, even though there were probably a number of people in Washington who were happy as hell to see it happen.


Regarding China and the Gazprom deal --

I think one of the things that many in the West have overlooked (or just not believed) in the last several years is that China (or at least the central government in Beijing) is dead serious about trying to "go green". Not because they're a bunch of hippie tree-huggers, but because they're technocrats and they've run the numbers and realized that China is going to be unliveable and unsustainable very, very quickly if they don't. At the rate of growth and rate of pollution they're generating, they're quite literally going to drown in their own waste if they can't make major strides in this area. (Implementation is another matter, because as I've discussed, getting a good idea in Beijing to translate into action on the ground can be infuriatingly difficult).

It's sad, but an atheist "totalitarian" regime is more serious about saving the planet than a supposedly "enlightened" democracy, precisely because they don't have political pressures to discount science. They're sinking more than 10 times as much money into green tech R&D than the US does. This natural gas deal with Russia is just another piece of that. If they were a US-style democracy, the lobbies for the large coal mining operations in China would be fighting this tooth and nail and no doubt launching a PR blitz on how all the yellow sulfur fumes from those billions of coal cakes people are burning are just "Happy Sunshine Smoke" and decrying that Beijing was making the country MORE dependent on another country for energy, when they have all this wonderful Chinese coal that creates millions of jobs.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: 10ebbor10 on May 23, 2014, 12:06:29 pm
To be fair, in China, the effects of pollution are hardly deniable. I mean, it's difficult to say that coal is harmless when you can't see the sky, and the ground is covered in ash.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 23, 2014, 12:23:11 pm
True, but this is also a state that is well-versed in denying that anything is wrong. Those tanks in Tiananmen and the blood they're scraping out of the treads? Just a normal routine thing. Nothing to see here, citizen, move along.

But even when have evidence, it gets ignored. Look at fracking -- you have people whose fucking tap water is flammable from the methane content, and pro-frackers will just handwave that away. The United States has gotten incredibly good at telling ourselves that nothing is wrong, because something wrong would mean changing behavior. And we can't be asked to get off our fat, lazy asses to inconvenience ourselves.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 23, 2014, 01:03:25 pm
To be honest, flaming water existed before fracking in regions with really high methane content. Fracking just made it worse.

Also, I was wondering, is there a concept similar to "white man's burden" in japanese? How is it called?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: 10ebbor10 on May 23, 2014, 01:21:32 pm
Anyway, China isn't doing as much about pollution as it might seem. Yes, they're building renewable and Nuclear power, but they're also building coal, and everything other energy resource they can get.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 23, 2014, 01:24:28 pm
To be honest, flaming water existed before fracking in regions with really high methane content. Fracking just made it worse.

Also, I was wondering, is there a concept similar to "white man's burden" in japanese? How is it called?
Best example I can think of is nihonjinron (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihonjinron), but that's actually referring to the Japanese academic study of why Japan is a special snowflake.


@10ebbor10: Yes, but they are significantly attempting to decrease the share of coal in their overall energy profile. It's just that their energy demands are growing so fast that even opening new coal plants, it could still be decreasing as an overall percentage. I know there's a plan to build some huge-ass solar farms in Xinjiang.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on May 23, 2014, 03:25:46 pm
To be honest, flaming water existed before fracking in regions with really high methane content. Fracking just made it worse.

Also, I was wondering, is there a concept similar to "white man's burden" in japanese? How is it called?
Yes and no.  As far as I know, it didn't really get promulgated overtly until the thorough militarization of Japanese society of the post-Taisho Showa era, and it was more of a "common understanding" rather than something that was boiled down into a single pithy quote by a Japanese Kipling.  Ultimately, one could probably characterize the conception of Japanese "anti-imperial" thought that meandered through the 19th century and ultimately culminated in the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere in much the same way.  Like the White Man's Burden, it was largely a moral excuse to exercise untrammeled imperialist practices over the poor indigenes, but the claim was that in doing so, they would be liberating these countries from the burden imposed on them by the European powers and America.  However, as the other populations of Asia - Chinese, Koreans, Filipinos, Malay, Indochinese, and so forth, were all weak and disunited, it would have to be the promulgators of this pan-Asian philosophy and the only major East Asian power to avoid colonization, or to put it succinctly, it would have to be Japan that would take on the leading, dominant role in the Co-Prosperity Sphere, a burden taken on purely for the good of the others.  Japanese propaganda in the Second World War thus consistently claimed things like "Asia for Asians!" and "Liberation from the imperialists!", and Japan consistently utilized independence movements in India and Indonesia as catspaws for destabilization of those lands they couldn't invade or stabilization of those lands they had.  The fundamental seeds for this can probably be traced back to early pro-Western Japanese advocates, some of whom advocated things like the conquest of Ryukyu and Korea, or even the Philippines and China, though it was far more of an undercurrent in that era. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on May 23, 2014, 03:56:55 pm
Personally, I think a lot of that stemmed from how China was treated during the Opium Wars. Japan saw a nation which had been the shining core of Asia for 3000 years get curbstomped by the gaijin Westerners, and it scared the fuck out of them. It would be (to borrow CK2 for a second), like watching the Aztecs come in and conquer the entire Holy Roman Empire in less than a year.

China and Japan had both been in a long period of stagnant isolation from the West (a couple hundred years). Japan looked at what happened to China and realized it was because Western technology was significantly in advance of Asian technology. So in the late 1800's the Japanese government made a concerted effort to send its best and brightest young people to Europe and the US to learn everything they could, then return home. This way they could try to leapfrog into modern technology (especially industrial and military tech) without necessarily allowing Westerners to come in and run things.

They were pretty much the only Asian country to pull that off. Everyone else either got colonized or retreated even further into isolation. So because of that (and their special snowflake Nihonjin status), it fell to them to "liberate" Asia under their watchful aegis. Honestly it's less of a "Japanese burden" and more like the Monroe Doctrine that the United States would "protect" all of North and South America from European influence -- which meant we totally had the right to meddle in those countries ourselves, to keep them free.

Had resource conflicts not forced Japan and the US into war, I the Axis plan had been more or less "Europe for Germany, Africa for Italy, Asia for Japan and the Americas for the United States". (at least until things like oil and minerals and lebensraum would have pushed those hegemonic spheres into conflict).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: misko27 on May 23, 2014, 04:29:33 pm
Personally, I think a lot of that stemmed from how China was treated during the Opium Wars. Japan saw a nation which had been the shining core of Asia for 3000 years get curbstomped by the gaijin Westerners, and it scared the fuck out of them. It would be (to borrow CK2 for a second), like watching the Aztecs come in and conquer the entire Holy Roman Empire in less than a year.

China and Japan had both been in a long period of stagnant isolation from the West (a couple hundred years). Japan looked at what happened to China and realized it was because Western technology was significantly in advance of Asian technology. So in the late 1800's the Japanese government made a concerted effort to send its best and brightest young people to Europe and the US to learn everything they could, then return home. This way they could try to leapfrog into modern technology (especially industrial and military tech) without necessarily allowing Westerners to come in and run things.

They were pretty much the only Asian country to pull that off. Everyone else either got colonized or retreated even further into isolation. So because of that (and their special snowflake Nihonjin status), it fell to them to "liberate" Asia under their watchful aegis. Honestly it's less of a "Japanese burden" and more like the Monroe Doctrine that the United States would "protect" all of North and South America from European influence -- which meant we totally had the right to meddle in those countries ourselves, to keep them free.

Had resource conflicts not forced Japan and the US into war, I the Axis plan had been more or less "Europe for Germany, Africa for Italy, Asia for Japan and the Americas for the United States". (at least until things like oil and minerals and lebensraum would have pushed those hegemonic spheres into conflict).
I take a small moment to note the Monroe Doctrine was more specifically aimed at keeping Europe out (which it failed at because at the time US threats were laughable), but it was the Roosevelt Corollary that got the US involved in Latin American interventions.
To be honest, flaming water existed before fracking in regions with really high methane content. Fracking just made it worse.

Also, I was wondering, is there a concept similar to "white man's burden" in japanese? How is it called?
Best example I can think of is nihonjinron (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nihonjinron), but that's actually referring to the Japanese academic study of why Japan is a special snowflake.


@10ebbor10: Yes, but they are significantly attempting to decrease the share of coal in their overall energy profile. It's just that their energy demands are growing so fast that even opening new coal plants, it could still be decreasing as an overall percentage. I know there's a plan to build some huge-ass solar farms in Xinjiang.
I feel the need to note that a lot of China's pollution is production-based, rather then consumer-based. They have a strong tendency to export the fruits of that pollution to the west. It makes sense that the country with the highest population has the highest pollution, but they are disproportionately exporting it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on May 23, 2014, 05:28:01 pm
Personally, I think a lot of that stemmed from how China was treated during the Opium Wars. Japan saw a nation which had been the shining core of Asia for 3000 years get curbstomped by the gaijin Westerners, and it scared the fuck out of them. It would be (to borrow CK2 for a second), like watching the Aztecs come in and conquer the entire Holy Roman Empire in less than a year.

China and Japan had both been in a long period of stagnant isolation from the West (a couple hundred years). Japan looked at what happened to China and realized it was because Western technology was significantly in advance of Asian technology. So in the late 1800's the Japanese government made a concerted effort to send its best and brightest young people to Europe and the US to learn everything they could, then return home. This way they could try to leapfrog into modern technology (especially industrial and military tech) without necessarily allowing Westerners to come in and run things.

They were pretty much the only Asian country to pull that off. Everyone else either got colonized or retreated even further into isolation. So because of that (and their special snowflake Nihonjin status), it fell to them to "liberate" Asia under their watchful aegis. Honestly it's less of a "Japanese burden" and more like the Monroe Doctrine that the United States would "protect" all of North and South America from European influence -- which meant we totally had the right to meddle in those countries ourselves, to keep them free.

Had resource conflicts not forced Japan and the US into war, I the Axis plan had been more or less "Europe for Germany, Africa for Italy, Asia for Japan and the Americas for the United States". (at least until things like oil and minerals and lebensraum would have pushed those hegemonic spheres into conflict).
I take a small moment to note the Monroe Doctrine was more specifically aimed at keeping Europe out (which it failed at because at the time US threats were laughable), but it was the Roosevelt Corollary that got the US involved in Latin American interventions.
It didn't fail, per se.  The Monroe Doctrine was actually seized upon by the British during most of the 19th century, who were more than willing to help enforce it, in spite of the occasional "difference of opinions" with the United States, because it gave them exactly what they wanted - an excuse to keep Spain and Portugal out of their former colonies and those lucrative Latin American markets wide open for British industry.  The British foreign secretary of the time actually wanted a joint statement to the same effect, but with 1812 so fresh in American memories, that was obviously out of the question. 

But yes, the Monroe Doctrine itself didn't actually suggest American interventionism until Drago and Roosevelt tacked on a corollary, motivated by the blockade of Venezuela. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 29, 2014, 02:07:50 am
So. Hong Kong protests. Any predictions how will it end?

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Duuvian on September 29, 2014, 05:48:15 am
I was thinking about bumping the Occupy thread with stuff about those protests.

I won't make any predictions as I don't know enough about the central government's views but a crackdown seems counter productive in some ways.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/09/taiwan-leader-rejects-china-unification-deal-201492810237314786.html

It also seems to me the non-violent unrest seems reasonable given the change in the government's original intent to allow universal suffrage.

I would hope these protests are not squashed as in the US. We set a terrible example for the world in how our own Occupy protests were dismantled through violence and arrests, even against those who remained peaceful while acting in the best interest of society by protesting against the inequality that is one of the woes of our economy.

I recently read this quote in a Science fiction book but it struck me as accurate. I have read a very small amount of recent Chinese economic history (1950-1980 or so) and I feel perhaps it could be applied to some decisions made by the government that later had to be changed.

"Rules, established with reason and justice, can easily outlive their usefulness as circumstance change, yet can remain in force through inertia. It is then not only right, but useful to break those rules as a way of advertising that they have become useless-- or even actually harmful.' - Isaac Asimov, Foundation and Earth.

It goes on to clarify that while this quote could be used by any murderer or thief to justify their action that would be taking it to unnecessary extremes.

In other words, perhaps the way to avoid seccesionism and dissent isn't to inflexibly suppress it; but to supplant it through accommodation (at least of non-violent people) and so lessen their feeling to need to break the rules.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on September 29, 2014, 06:31:24 am
Yeah, but the Chinese leadership is also very afraid of setting a precedent by letting Hong Kong have free elections. I wonder how it'll turn out. It's possible than in 50 years, the handover of Hong Kong to China will be seen a a masterstroke leading to China's democratization.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: FearfulJesuit on September 29, 2014, 03:56:53 pm
This is a good chance for me to chime in with an aside about China's elites. My dad teaches at a relatively elite Northeastern boarding school- has for years- and one thing that people in the business have noticed in the last twenty (but especially the last ten) years has been the vast influx of rich Chinese kids.

Partially this is because the US's boarding schools are second to none when it comes to a high school education, and the elites want their kids to learn English- but there's also a darker undercurrent: there's a growing sense among China's elite that the gravy train is going to stop some time soon, and they want their kids to have a way out. A similar motivation is driving the real estate shopping spree by Chinese tycoons in places like San Fran.

Sooner or later China's going to have baby's first recession, and it won't be pretty. Heck, any growth rate lower than 6% starts giving the high brass panic attacks...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: TamerVirus on September 29, 2014, 04:04:37 pm
The whole thing will be quashed and quickly expunged from public record

"On June 4th 1989, nothing of note happened today"
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 29, 2014, 05:02:10 pm
I think 2014 world is rather different to 1989 world


We should sue them for stealing our national way to have fun
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2014, 05:50:00 pm
Well it will be interesting to see Russia invade Hong Kong.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 29, 2014, 05:51:59 pm
Well it will be interesting to see Russia invade Hong Kong.
How dare you speak against the self-determination of Hong Kong, which has always seen itself as a historical element of Russia. It's not their fault the Kiev fascists forced them to stay in Ukraine for so long.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 29, 2014, 05:54:31 pm
Lüshunkou (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lüshunkou_District) is a more logical target for Russian invasion.

It is a pity that even 10% of Chinese army will wipe Russian armed forces (don't tell me to go to AGG :) )
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sergarr on September 30, 2014, 07:01:48 am
They'd need to cross half the continent to do that, though, and Chinese army isn't well known for its foreign country invasion capabilities...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on September 30, 2014, 08:19:33 am
They'd need to cross half the continent to do that, though, and Chinese army isn't well known for its foreign country invasion capabilities...

http://youtu.be/xECUrlnXCqk
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: evilcherry on October 03, 2014, 10:00:13 am
Now gangs are beating HK citizens into pulp.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204715550426531&set=a.2244543270969.2132101.1169748683&type=1

To recap, as the CE promised "law and order" soon, a few Government-affiliated groups declared that if the police do not clear up the occupation they will. Then gangs soon appear over HK to beat people up, and despite more than a handful of injuries, blatant cases of sexual harassment of protesters, only TWO were caught.

Most of the time the police are just letting these thugs go without charge.

*update: 131 injured, 2 arrested. I guest these two grand masters must have learnt their trade in Dynasty Warriors...

Update 2: From Huffpost.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/10/03/hong-kong-protest-pictures_n_5926578.html
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 03, 2014, 10:16:42 am
Quote
Now gangs are beating HK citizens into pulp.

I hope HK have its own Right Sector
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: evilcherry on October 03, 2014, 11:31:16 am
We have a multitude of right sectors, and, frankly they are as much a problem as a help themselves.

For a few days, there are repeat accuastions of some protestor groups as putschist, hell bent on escalating the movement, and in turn remove a few figures from their positions by accusing them as defeatists.

Obviously high internal tensions are not healthy for any kind of movement.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 03, 2014, 11:45:38 am
It's very encouraging to see the restraint that HK protesters are showing.  The great discipline means that the government doesn't have a convenient excuse that lets them avoid the real issues.  You can't know if you are strong enough to beat the government but you can be strong enough to keep from beating yourselves.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: evilcherry on October 03, 2014, 12:28:34 pm
It's very encouraging to see the restraint that HK protesters are showing.  The great discipline means that the government doesn't have a convenient excuse that lets them avoid the real issues.  You can't know if you are strong enough to beat the government but you can be strong enough to keep from beating yourselves.
Update: among the 2 people arrrested, 1 is a protester. No news on the other one.

There are numerous cases reported that while police do take away provocateurs, most of them were dropped off a block away. Police refuse to arrest provocateurs - in many cases they were seen assaulting protesters so there is no question that it do not warrant an arrest. In one particular case, a provocateur was led away by the police to the nearby MTR/subway station office, as he was seen attacking protesters. As protesters gathered outside the office to demand his arrest, a police officer unleashed pepper spray.

We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 03, 2014, 01:54:57 pm
We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

Bingo.  In the aftermath of fighting nobody will remember the provocation no matter how extreme.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Mr. Strange on October 03, 2014, 05:31:15 pm
We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

Bingo.  In the aftermath of fighting nobody will remember the provocation no matter how extreme.
But pictures will remain in the net...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on October 03, 2014, 08:25:53 pm
We understand that law enforcement is biased, but this is grossly out of proportion. It seems that the police is using these cases to provoke protesters into assaulting police compounds.

Bingo.  In the aftermath of fighting nobody will remember the provocation no matter how extreme.
But pictures will remain in the net...
That's not new.  June 4, 1989: On this day, nothing happened (http://i.imgur.com/QZK1EWi.jpg).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: TamerVirus on October 06, 2014, 10:59:21 pm
Ha! Made that joke already

The whole thing will be quashed and quickly expunged from public record

"On June 4th 1989, nothing of note happened today"
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 06, 2014, 11:28:13 pm
Just the usual occasional skirmishing between the two koreas.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2014/10/north-south-korea-navy-boats-exchange-fire-201410715337358844.html

Also spotted this when going to google news to grab a source for the Korea skirmishing CNN mentioned about.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2014/10/07/25/0401000000AEN20141007002500315F.html

No idea if NK has done the 'Year of _____ will be the year of Korean unification' thing before.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 08, 2014, 05:07:49 pm
The tacit approval by the HK government of counter-protestor thugs is hardly surprising. It puts some fear into the protestors, and it gives the government clean hands to say "Okay, okay just look at the mess this has caused. Just go home and we'll schedule a meeting to talk about this."

The pro-Beijing talking points (Victor Gao (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victor_Gao) must have been on half a dozen broadcasts I heard) have been mostly focusing on the paramount importance of rule of law, and how "yes, they have a right to protest. but they must obey the rule of law and protest in a legal manner!"

Which isn't as ridiculous as it sounds, and strikes me as a very Chinese response. And we really can't point fingers and laugh when we introduced "First Amendment Zones" for protests here in the West.

I'm really not sure where I come down in this whole mess. On the one hand, C.Y. Leung has done, by most accounts, a good job running Hong Kong the last couple of years, and he was (sort of*) democratically elected. However, he's seen as having uncomfortably strong ties to Beijing and being something of a (if you'll forgive the ironic metaphor) "Manchurian Candidate" for the mainland. And his daughter could give Paris Hilton a run for her money in the "vapid rich bitch" department.

The real crux of the protest comes down to the fact that the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (commonly just referred to as Chief Executive, or CE) isn't elected by the total electorate, but rather by a 1200-member Election Committee who are elected by the general public and designed such as to have members allocated from various economic and functional "constituencies" rather than geographic constituencies. So, for instance, there are 40 seats allocated to religious organizations, 40 to social welfare organizations, 554 to labor unions, 20 for medical professionals, 20 for higher education, etc. The proportion (and even total number) changes every five years.

It's actually a fascinating model of a parliamentary system, and it makes sense when geography isn't that big of a factor (HK being 7.2 million people crammed into an area smaller than New York City or London). There are still some geographical constituencies as well, but the predominant representation is functional. In some ways, it's taking special interests and embedding them as part of the governmental structure rather than just leaving it to lobbying.

But...the problem is that this was really only supposed to be a stopgap solution, and that part of the handover agreement between Britain and China was that HK would be allowed (indeed, encouraged) to move toward direct, universal suffrage. The problem is that the legal position of HK within the PRC means that it has to ask Beijing nicely for the permission to change its own laws, and the response from Beijing has typically been (not surprisingly), "let us study the issue for a few more years and not be hasty".

This isn't necessarily the broken promise it seems on the surface. Chinese leaders  (with the exception of Mao) have ALWAYS been terrified of rapid change, because it usually ends with Bad ThingsTM. Like millions dead because somebody didn't quite understand Christianity and used it to raise a rebel army. Or millions dead because collectivization and land reform failed. Or millions dead because you said "Gee, these egghead intellectuals are really pissing me off. I wish someone would fix that," and then your quasi-religious cultists go off and kill and "re-educate" your best and brightest.

Beijing likes using HK (and the Shenzhen region just across the water) as laboratories for economic reform, and they've had good successes there. I think they could be open to using them as a lab for political reform but it's far harder to stop the contagion -- if you will -- for political rather than economic changes.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 18, 2014, 06:21:09 pm

I dislike the direction it is heading... Hope that January 19 and February 20 will not arrive
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: hermes on October 21, 2014, 11:09:05 pm
PTW.  Nice post, RedKing.

Watched this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wI8qtPnfCY) on Asian underwater warfare the other day.  Interesting info dump, mainly.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: evilcherry on October 25, 2014, 12:08:05 am
Its basically an awful stalemate here.

Beijing don't want to be seen as weak internally and won't buckle easily;
Protesters basically get zero concessions and it would be politically impossible to actually disperse the crowd (and it looks exactly like Ukraine - the government is basically battle-hardening them)
The courts has ruled that continued occupation of streets is a contempt of court but as it suddenly becomes a civil matter so far no clearances can be made on this ground;
Of course there are clashes between protesters and anti-protesters - some of them are basically thugs, some of them got money from Beijing, and I can say some of them legitimately see their interests harmed so they decide to take action on their own hands. So far the police disproportionately favor them and tacitly they are allowed to carry on their battle of attrition (but not protesters - one dressing as captain america was quickly taken away as his shield is deemed to be some kind of weapon.

Oh and look at this. This banner was visible from both sides of harbour for a whole day.
(http://www.dw.de/image/0,,18013549_303,00.jpg)
This thing reads "I want universal suffrage".
The top of this place can be reached by a hike but you need some mountaineering to scale the rock face.
 its making (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEQ2rj-7DDE)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on November 13, 2014, 05:34:26 pm
So, big agreement announced today between President Obama and President Xi Jinping.

The highlights:


The climate change one is a pretty big step for both sides. While it seems like China is giving up far less (by agreeing to an eventual cap rather than a reduction), it's a considerable step forward from their previous position, which was "we'll look at caps and reductions once we're emitting the same amount per capita as the US".

For reference, China now emits 26% of the world's greenhouse gases, and holds 19% of the world's population, a ratio of 1.37:1.
The United States emits 16% of the world's greenhouse gases, but houses just 4% of the global population, a ratio of 4:1.

If China had continued on a trajectory to wait until they were at a 4:1 ratio, they'd be emitting roughly the entire greenhouse emissions of the planet today BY THEMSELVES before they acted. At present rates, a 2030 cap would stop them at about a 2:1 ratio, assuming some levelling off towards the end of the growth curve. Which is still too high, but it's far better than the alternative.

This isn't pure altruism on Beijing's part. Beijing has been pushing green tech R&D and implementation for several years now. They realize that they're going to have to eventually anyways, and it's cheaper to build it in now than to build cheap, shitty infrastructure and replace it later. Unfortunately, Chinese energy demand is growing at such a rate that they frequently build the expensive, green energy AND the cheap, shitty coal plants both. I personally think one of their hopes is that they're going to hit the jackpot in R&D and design something workable in fusion, microwave and/or hydrogen and then simultaneously get rich selling that tech to the rest of the world.

Pollution isn't just a long-term issue for China, though climate change is a potentially devastating problem for them. The PRC's urbanization policies are envisioning 80% of the Chinese population living in one of the three megacity complexes by 2050, and all three of those are coastal. Sea level rises would be disastrous for Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Tianjin, and many other large cities. But even in the short-term, pollution levels have become flat-out toxic in some places like Beijing. It's no longer just a quality of life issue, it's a life expectancy issue.

I'll discuss the trade agreement next time I get a spot of time to write, and then the military one once I've had a chance to look over the details more.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 15, 2015, 07:38:25 am
K-Pop vs Islamic conservatism (http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30822098) since the bastards dared to be degenerates who do the disgusting and hug people. Oh such decadence! As an aside, it is a bit weird how one year I went back to Malaysia and everyone suddenly looked decidedly Korean Pop-y. That stuff is catchier than the flu.

And the Hong Kong protestors (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-30808735) cannot into Hong Kong law and so must be ignored or else Hong Kong will devolve into anarchy.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on January 15, 2015, 08:49:26 am
So CO2 could be a viable weapon against China? Huh, never thought of it that way.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Owlbread on January 20, 2015, 07:13:30 am
Does anybody know where I could find a map of Japan showing where support for the Japanese Communist Party is strongest?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on January 20, 2015, 01:35:03 pm
I searched a bit, and I doubt you'll find one, the JCP is just too small.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: 10ebbor10 on January 20, 2015, 01:39:58 pm
On a side note, isn't Shanghai sinking, or is that simply something I remember incorrectly.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on January 20, 2015, 04:23:33 pm
Yes, and it has been for at least a century. Funny thing happens when you pack gigatons of steel and concrete onto what is essentially a river delta: it sinks.

Though actually, the bigger problem is groundwater extraction. A city that big extracts tons of water from the water table every day, which when the soilbase is clay, means a fair amount of mass over time. Estimates are that the center of Shanghai has subsided 2.6m since the first survey in 1921.


Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: evilcherry on January 30, 2015, 11:18:02 pm
Yes, and it has been for at least a century. Funny thing happens when you pack gigatons of steel and concrete onto what is essentially a river delta: it sinks.

Though actually, the bigger problem is groundwater extraction. A city that big extracts tons of water from the water table every day, which when the soilbase is clay, means a fair amount of mass over time. Estimates are that the center of Shanghai has subsided 2.6m since the first survey in 1921.
The same problem exists for every city on riverside plains.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on February 03, 2015, 11:42:40 pm
Yes, and it has been for at least a century. Funny thing happens when you pack gigatons of steel and concrete onto what is essentially a river delta: it sinks.

Though actually, the bigger problem is groundwater extraction. A city that big extracts tons of water from the water table every day, which when the soilbase is clay, means a fair amount of mass over time. Estimates are that the center of Shanghai has subsided 2.6m since the first survey in 1921.
The same problem exists for every city on riverside plains.
True, but most cities don't have 80 million people in the metro area.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 08, 2015, 03:26:27 pm
And we're back! Couple of big items going on in the Pacific Rim these days, even without kaiju and jaegers.

1. The Chinese stock market is going down in flames, but then that's after a year or so of going UP in flames, so it's not all it appears to be. There's been some discussion in the Euro politics thread, and we can continue that here.

Quote
First off, converting your money into cans of baked beans is a great idea; those are fucking delicious - money is not delicious. Maybe you shouldn't convert all of your money into baked beans at once, but still. Foreign investment in China exceeded foreign investment in the USA (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31052566) in January.
FDI != stock investing.

FDI is foreign companies (or venture capitalists) sinking money into partial ownership of a company. Which can take place through a stock purchase, but there are other avenues. More to the point, it's not speculative. You don't buy a company to flip the stock and make a quick buck, you buy it use its assets/markets/brand/technology to make MORE money. Some of that FDI contributed to the stock rise, no doubt, but that's the part that's SUPPOSED to. Which, based on the numbers I'm seeing thrown around, would have accounted for roughly 4% of the total stock market gain, if every bit of that FDI was stock purchases on the Shanghai.

The vast majority of that bubble is Chinese-made and Chinese-owned. Which just underscores the tremendous economic power of the Chinese and why reforms in China have to happen SLOWLY. The sheer size of the population is a force-multiplier for all kinds of effects, good and bad. Chinese fads can make or break entire industries and foreign economies without ever intending to.

Case in point: Chinese milk consumption. One of the lowest rates in the world, milk consumption per capita has been steadily rising since 2000, from about 11kg per year to about 25kg per year by 2008 (by contrast, the US rate was 253kg per year in 2007. Finland tops the world, at 361kg per Finn per year. And yet still find room to drink all that beer and vodka....) ;)

But despite that modest increase -- the equivalent of an extra 1.2 ounces of milk a day -- the net effect was to revitalize the dairy industry in several countries, including the US (where milk consumption has been on the wane for 30+ years, such that US milk consumption is half of what it was 30 years ago). Coupled with Chinese distrust of their own domestic milk production (thanks to several high-profile incidents of melanine poisoning), milk exporters are seeing record numbers.

And all this because milk is seen as a healthy food and a sign of affluence in Chinese culture.

2. The TPP! It's not just for Americans (and it's not for the Chinese yet). So far the only members are Brunei, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore. But once the US, Japan, Korea and Australia sign on and ratify it, shit is going to get real.

 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 08, 2015, 03:59:37 pm
Ok, you've convinced me that the Chinese stock market crash could be localized to China and Southeast Asia. What would it take to increase the chance of this turning into a fully-fledged global meltdown?
Purely for research purposes of course

So, three things (the first, concerning; the second, fucking terrifying):

1. Hong Kong and Taiwan are in that weird sort of position of being China-but-not-China. The Hang Seng closed down 6% today alone. The HK and the Taiwanese markets ARE fully integrated into the world economic landscape and DO have foreign investors. A lot of that FDI we discussed (I don't have the numbers in front of me, and some of them may even be "state secrets") is from Taiwan and Hong Kong, because they don't have some of the same restrictions on investment that say, American, European, or Japanese investors do. So there is a potential contagion to those two countries, which could in turn trigger a cascade effect.

2. If enough people lose enough money and get pissed off enough about it, there could be civil unrest. This is the nightmare scenario for every government of China ever. And why they're so slow in trying reforms. And why you're seeing a confusing and somewhat counter-productive government response, which has ranged from attempts to freeze the market, to halting all IPOs for the next six months, to ordering all state-owned enterprises to not sell any shares, to government purchases of suffering stocks to slow down the crash, to editorials in government-sanctioned media outlets accusing foreign governments (specifically Japan) of "meddling" in China's markets.

Widespread civil unrest in China would have a serious negative effect on the Chinese economy, which would have major implications on the export economies of...well, just about everybody. Chinese imports plummet, rest of the world's economy goes to shit in months.

The thing is, trying to keep the stock prices where they were is unsustainable and a bad idea. They need to have an exit strategy for a lot of the retail investors so they can get out without losing TOO much money.

Here's the thing: the government *wanted* the population putting money into the stock market to make it grow. The problem is that everyone raced in, in a chance to get rich (if you think America is the land of "get rich quick" schemes, you ain't seen nothing like China) and overheated the market. It's like "Hmm, I wish our campfire was bigger. Hey, I'll let anyone who wants to be warmer throw a stick on the fire and stand here too." And then 800 million sticks later, OH GOD WHY IS EVERYTHING BURNING??!

The real concern domestically for China is that people were doing some rather foolish things (not unlike Americans at time), such as taking out loans to get more money to put into the stock market. Now their stock is worth way less than the loans, and they're deep in debt. Not everyone was doing this, and traditionally stock investing has been seen as something more akin to gambling than economics. So the average Chinese family historically hasn't held much stock, in the same way that a lot of Americans play the lottery, but only the truly stupid and/or desperate go cash in their entire paycheck and blow it on Powerball tickets.

But there's some question as to whether that might have changed over the last year, when money was seemingly pouring from the sky and people were getting rich overnight. The allure of 150% annual returns might have prompted risky behavior from a traditionally fiscaly conservative population.

If a lot of those families did in fact cash in hard assets and leverage themselves to go all-in on the Shanghai, this could have long-lasting effects.
But if (as I'm thinking and hoping) it was mostly the twenty-something IT crowd (who have a lot of money, comparatively speaking, and are looking for ways to spend it), then it won't be as bad for the country overall. Sucks hardcore for them, but they have time to rebuild. GenX'ers didn't get burned as bad in the US dot-com bubble in part because we didn't have the money to really sink into it, and because we were all probably too stoned or slacker to get involved.

In the long run, this could be a good lesson for a Chinese population still learning the nuances of market capitalism.

3. And then there's just the good old-fashioned market panic. Even though the Chinese market crash should be mostly self-contained, even seasoned investors in the West aren't always aware of conditions. They just read a story, see "$3.5 trillion dollars lost on Shanghai market in last month" and go "Holy shit, I better move some of my money into bonds and commodities. And maybe pull out of emerging market funds too, those countries just don't know what the hell they're doing". And there seem to be a lot of Western outlets publishing shallow, sensationalist coverage of this because they'd rather have click-bait revenues than calm the markets down.

Markets are fundamentally about herd mentality. Learning to predict the herd can make you a fortune. Misreading the herd can get you trampled. And panicking the herd gets EVERYBODY trampled.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: FearfulJesuit on July 08, 2015, 07:00:55 pm
Before people start making the inevitable comparisons to America in '29, I'll just point out that the economy had already been in recession since late 1928, and the stock market crash was just when everyone realized it. That's not what's going on here, so I would tentatively hope that it won't be as bad.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on July 08, 2015, 07:15:09 pm
2. If enough people lose enough money and get pissed off enough about it, there could be civil unrest.

Of the 1,300 million people in China, 50 million own any stocks.

I hate to sound like the heartless evil capitalist here, but -- you pays your money, you takes your chances. This isn't manipulation or ethical wrongdoing like the Wall Street crash, this is the laws of economics asserting themselves. The vast majority of these "gains" were hot air and dreams, and they're evaporating.

I am so proud of you, son.  It's the words I've been waiting for so long.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 08, 2015, 07:23:58 pm
Yeah, I don't see any comparison to '29. Chinese economic growth in the first quarter of 2015 was still at 7%, a rate most countries would be dancing in the streets to have. It's the slowest Q1 growth in six years, but people who start doomsaying from that need to be slapped around with a large trout.

My take is that the Shanghai index will flatten out around 2300-2500, a bit above where it was a year ago. There's enough intrinsic worth in the market to give it a floor there. This is a market correction, not an economic implosion.

2. If enough people lose enough money and get pissed off enough about it, there could be civil unrest.

Of the 1,300 million people in China, 50 million own any stocks.
And in most countries, 50 million unhappy people would be enough to topple governments. Granted, China isn't most countries. But that's still potentially enough to cause a problem. Unrest breeds unrest. If millions are protesting in the streets, the PRC has the unenviable task of silencing the protests without resorting to another Tiananmen. And if they don't silence the protests, people see that and think "Well, I didn't lose any money on stocks, but I'm upset about X, so I'll join in the protest" and then you start getting a real problem.

As I said, stock trading in China is mostly pai gow for rich kids. But those kids are social media-savvy. It would be fascinating to watch QQ and Weibo to see what people start posting (and I have no doubt the PSB already has a battalion of people doing exactly that).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on July 08, 2015, 09:05:41 pm
Well I heard on NPR that the median investor had $15k.  Not chump change for a middle income country but certainly not "rich kid pai gow".

The stock market in China just isn't as big a deal as in the US.  Despite having a much higher household savings rate the total value of stocks cap at, IIRC, 40% of so of the US market cap before the bubble burst.  It's a lot like when Obama tanked the price of gold to fuck with the gun owners, an economic sideshow.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 08, 2015, 11:41:06 pm
Well I heard on NPR that the median investor had $15k.  Not chump change for a middle income country but certainly not "rich kid pai gow".

The stock market in China just isn't as big a deal as in the US.  Despite having a much higher household savings rate the total value of stocks cap at, IIRC, 40% of so of the US market cap before the bubble burst.  It's a lot like when Obama tanked the price of gold to fuck with the gun owners, an economic sideshow.
$15K in China is pretty upper middle class. Average household income is still only about $10-11K, and there's still a major divide between rural and urban. The big thing is that cost of living (thanks in large part to state controls) is still quite low, as is inflation (which is kind of stunning considering over two decades of double-digit or near-double-digit growth). So all those increases in urban wages translate almost entirely to disposable income.

The thing is that projections have China's middle-middle class increasing dramatically over the next ten years. They're moving into their version of the 1950's, with mass consumerism and many rural families urbanizing and getting amenities like a TV, a car/scooter and a refrigerator for the first time.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Of course, there's a strange irony that's a bit unprecedented here. America's (and Europe's) postwar consumerism boom was accelerated in part by using Japan (and later Taiwan and Hong Kong) as our offshore factory, supplying American demand for cheap TVs and cars. But in order to supply a country the size of China with all the mass produced crap they're going to want, you'd have to outsource that to...China. Which in turn will bring more people into the middle class, which will increase the demand, in a feedback loop. At a certain point, it's not even about price points (because rather quickly, you're going to be able to get cheaper goods made in Vietnam/Bangladesh/etc, which is already happening in some industries) it's about production capacity. If 1.3 billion Chinese all decide they want a new fancy toothbrush, you can't offshore that production out of China and keep up with demand unless you turn several small nations into nothing but toothbrush factories. Kind of makes me wonder if that's why China has such an interest in Africa -- Chinese tweens in 30 years might be walking around with iPhone 18 retinal implants made in a factory in Tanzania by exhausted, suicidal Africans.

To be honest, China hitting its consumer boom phase kinda scares the hell out of me for what it means for resource utilization globally. Forget peak oil, we could start hitting peak everything.



One question some may be wondering is, "What about India? Isn't their population just as big? Why don't they have this kind of disruptive effect?"
The short answer is, India just doesn't have their shit together enough to be an economic disruption. Yet.
They're undergoing many of the same transitions (increasing middle class, increasing urbanization, better access to health care and education) that China has been undergoing, but they have two major obstacles that China doesn't:

1. Decentralized government. China suffers from this to some extent as well, but more in the implementation side of things. Directives still come from the top down, and are at least complied with in letter, if not in spirit. India, on the other hand, has a fairly weak federal system in which the state governments often ignore or outright fight policies from New Delhi that they disagree with, especially if the political party in control at the state level is opposed to the party in control of the federal government.

2. Heterogenous population. India has more social divisions than you can shake a stick at. Caste, religion, linguistic, ethnic, ideological, historical, etc.  China is 98% ethnic Han and has been a unified state for most of the last 2000 years.

There are a lot of other obstacles such as uneven infrastructure, staggering poverty in large areas, rampant corruption, etc. but most of those either stem from the two items above, or are actively exacerbated by them.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on July 09, 2015, 02:15:02 am
Re: government, I'd also point at incentive. China's governor might disrespect Beijing's order now and thenbut further promotion depend on pleasing Beijing, in large part through fostering growth. There is no such incentive for Indian local governments.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 09, 2015, 09:29:41 am
Yeah, that goes back to that whole "unitary government" vs. "decentralized government". Or perhaps more accurately, bureaucracy vs. democracy.

Officials in China are beholden to Beijing for support, not voters. Although it's a lot more complicated than that, and there are regional powerbases that exist in contrast to Beijing (Chongqing being the most prominent one, but also Guangdong and Shanghai). But in general, if you're a Party official in China, you need to tow the party line, at least in appearance if not in actuality. And they're trying to crackdown on the ones who aren't complying with new anti-corruption efforts. These have been well-received by the general population, even if there's been a bit of blowback from the fact that some pretty high-ranking officials have been found to be corrupt.

Anti-corruption efforts in India immediately run smack-dab into partisan politics. Any attempt by Congress Party to punish allegedly corrupt BJP officials is decried by the BJP as baseless slander, and vice versa when the BJP is in power. And then if the official is from one of the non-national parties (common in places like West Bengal), it opens up even more divides. And parties are extremely reluctant to reveal and punish corruption in their own ranks, because of the PR problem.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on July 09, 2015, 07:01:45 pm
as is inflation (which is kind of stunning considering over two decades of double-digit or near-double-digit growth)

Not if your rapidly restoring your trade balance. (https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1q5A)

Of course, there's a strange irony that's a bit unprecedented here. America's (and Europe's) postwar consumerism boom was accelerated in part by using Japan (and later Taiwan and Hong Kong) as our offshore factory, supplying American demand for cheap TVs and cars.

I question your chronology and suggest that American postwar consumerism was boosted by having 15 years of improvement in production finally start affecting consumer purchasing power after being held back by depression followed by wartime rationing.

2. Heterogenous population. India has more social divisions than you can shake a stick at. Caste, religion, linguistic, ethnic, ideological, historical, etc.  China is 98% ethnic Han and has been a unified state for most of the last 2000 years.

1) I dont think that's true
2) They have been an non-unified state for most of the last 200 years which is much more important.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 09, 2015, 07:16:09 pm

2. Heterogenous population. India has more social divisions than you can shake a stick at. Caste, religion, linguistic, ethnic, ideological, historical, etc.  China is 98% ethnic Han and has been a unified state for most of the last 2000 years.

1) I dont think that's true
2) They have been an non-unified state for most of the last 200 years which is much more important.
1. Which part?
2. If you're referring to Taiwan, it's only been 66 years, and Taiwan is relatively minor piece of China. Unless you're referring to India?  ???
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on July 09, 2015, 10:53:12 pm
2. If you're referring to Taiwan, it's only been 66 years, and Taiwan is relatively minor piece of China. Unless you're referring to India?  ???

China spent the 19th century in intermittent civil wars during which warlords de facto ruled large swathes of the country.  This century included the bloodiest conflict in human history, the Taiping rebellion.  China spent the first 50 years of the 20th century in civil wars where warlords openly ruled most of the county and the president of China was fucking kidnapped (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an_Incident) that is an actual thing that happened.

I'm pretty sure that China didn't spend most of the preceeding 2 millenia unified either but I dont know my pre Qing history too well.  It's mostly that the Communist Party has been pushing the "One Land" narrative singlemindedly for the past 60 years and those who pay attention to China tend to credulously believe what the exotic foreigners say about their "ancient" "nation".
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on July 10, 2015, 11:39:19 am
Quote
China is 98% ethnic Han
I fail to believe this. Unless there are simple "language=ethnicity" kind of cheating.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on July 10, 2015, 12:01:56 pm
It's true. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Ethnic_groups) I could be wrong, but if I remember right historically there was a trend of other ethnic groups being subsumed into the 'Han' label, and that today a large number of what might have been called separate ethnic groups are just referred to as Han.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 10, 2015, 12:11:33 pm
2. If you're referring to Taiwan, it's only been 66 years, and Taiwan is relatively minor piece of China. Unless you're referring to India?  ???

China spent the 19th century in intermittent civil wars during which warlords de facto ruled large swathes of the country.  This century included the bloodiest conflict in human history, the Taiping rebellion.  China spent the first 50 years of the 20th century in civil wars where warlords openly ruled most of the county and the president of China was fucking kidnapped (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi%27an_Incident) that is an actual thing that happened.

I'm pretty sure that China didn't spend most of the preceeding 2 millenia unified either but I dont know my pre Qing history too well.  It's mostly that the Communist Party has been pushing the "One Land" narrative singlemindedly for the past 60 years and those who pay attention to China tend to credulously believe what the exotic foreigners say about their "ancient" "nation".
It went through periods of mass fragmentation, but on the whole there was a single recognized "Imperial" government for the most part since 221BC. I'd have to disagree with the idea that during the rebellions (of which there have been MANY over the last two thousand years), China doesn't qualify as a unified state. The Taiping Rebellion lasted 14 years and at its fullest extent controlled about three provinces in total. And that was the largest rebellion in Chinese (or world) history. The bulk of China was still under Imperial control, and the areas under Taiping control were quickly reintegrated into the Imperial system after the rebellion. There wasn't time for governmental and cultural differences to take root.

Now, the warlord era of the 1930's...yeah, that's legit disunity more akin to the Ten Kingdoms and Five Dynasties period, where there really wasn't anybody in charge.


In India by contrast, it wasn't that there was a single Grand Maharajah and lots of rebellious states, it was lots of states with no overall hegemon. For a very long time, in between the periods where an outsider would come in and conquer most or all of the place (Mughals, British). And even then, they tended to leave the local rajas in control of their fiefdoms, so those regional differences had a long time to take root.

But hey, what do I know, I'm just one of those people who pay attention to China, ergo I'm swallowing that Commie propaganda, right?


Quote
China is 98% ethnic Han
I fail to believe this. Unless there are simple "language=ethnicity" kind of cheating.
Actually, you're correct. It's down to about 92% now days. And it comes partly from having a relatively broad definition of "Han" (and from a purely biological standpoint, northern Chinese are going to be different in ancestry from southern Chinese) and partly from just demographics -- the central and coastal plains support a population orders of magnitude larger than the peripheries, which is where most of the recognized ethnic minorities reside.

Linguistically, China is much more diverse, with just the Han population speaking 80+ different dialects.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: nenjin on July 10, 2015, 12:15:13 pm
Quote
But hey, what do I know, I'm just one of those people who pay attention to China, ergo I'm swallowing that Commie propaganda, right?

You do have Red in your name.

*narrows gaze*
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 10, 2015, 12:18:43 pm
Quote
But hey, what do I know, I'm just one of those people who pay attention to China, ergo I'm swallowing that Commie propaganda, right?

You do have Red in your name.

*narrows gaze*
I also have King. Check and mate.  8)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on July 10, 2015, 12:57:17 pm
The Taiping Rebellion lasted 14 years and at its fullest extent controlled about three provinces in total.

Other rebellions were happening concurrently and the next generation of rebellions started before Taiping was even done.

But the point isn't that rebels controlled the country, it's that warlords controlled the country.  Theodric and Odoacer allegedly ruled Italy in the name of the eastern roman emperor but we dont say that Italy and the eastern roman empire were united in the 5th and 6th centuries before Justinian.  Likewise the emperor in China nominally ruled the country continuously in the 19th century but in reality it was divided.  If we applied the same standards to western history that we apply to the Chinese "nation", Rome didn't fall until 1919.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 10, 2015, 01:10:44 pm
And by your logic, the United States ceased to exist from 1861-1865.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on July 10, 2015, 01:37:31 pm
Not... really. :/?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on July 10, 2015, 02:04:02 pm
Mea culpa, I didn't see the bit distinguishing between rebellion and control.

And again, I'd have to say that with the 1930's, you have a valid point. With the 19th century, or most of Chinese history (not including the aforementioned interregnums) you don't.


Now if you wanted to quibble with the Japanese narrative of an "unbroken Empire", I'd say you totally have a case. While the Imperial bloodline was not broken, Imperial control most certainly was, and rarely constituted actual control of Japan. And I never said that China had an unbroken succession, rather that when the normal hereditary succession broke down, you had one unitary dynastic state replaced with another unitary dynastic state, both calling themselves China and having more or less the same borders and governmental structure.

Why is it that we always winding up in a pissing match about semantics, for no real benefit to the discussion? I still stand by my intial broad point -- China has not been a gazillion little countries for most of its history, India has. If you want to quibble on the specifics, whatever. I'm done with that line of argument.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 12, 2015, 08:56:26 pm
Explosions in China for no reason (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-33896292) confirmed, though the fact that they happened in a chemicals warehouse suggests the chemicals decided to explode.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Frumple on August 12, 2015, 09:11:40 pm
Sounded like improperly stored/transported stuff, from what showed up elsewhere. Which is... usually the cause for sudden explosions in a chemical warehouse, yes.

Still a bit too early to actually tell, especially considering the situation on the ground.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on August 12, 2015, 09:38:24 pm
And by your logic, the United States ceased to exist from 1861-1865.

Necroquote but the new posts made me see this again and now I'm can't stop thinking how John Fremont missed the obvious chance to declare himself Emperor of Missouri and Protector of Arkansas in 1861.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on August 18, 2015, 08:10:26 am
There is a nice article (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/10/learning-to-speak-lingerie) in the New Yorker about Chinese lingerie sellers in Egypt.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 18, 2015, 05:24:02 pm
There is a nice article (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/10/learning-to-speak-lingerie) in the New Yorker about Chinese lingerie sellers in Egypt.
That is one good story
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 18, 2015, 05:30:10 pm
Quote
Without a clear strategy, China has turned to a basic instinct of the Deng Xiaoping era: When in doubt, build factories.
<3
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 18, 2015, 05:42:23 pm
Are we still at war with Eastasia?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on August 18, 2015, 05:54:16 pm
We have always been at war with Eastasia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 18, 2015, 05:58:57 pm
We have always been allied with EastAsia
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on August 18, 2015, 06:10:06 pm
*bullet through the back of the head*
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on August 18, 2015, 07:06:27 pm
There is a nice article (http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/08/10/learning-to-speak-lingerie) in the New Yorker about Chinese lingerie sellers in Egypt.
That's actually a really informative and interesting article with a unique perspective. I like it!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 29, 2015, 06:55:00 pm
Bersih protesters demanding resignation of the prime minister (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/live-despite-putrajayas-numerous-attempts-to-stop-it-crowds-starting-to-gat) who's more than a tiny bit corrupt. People have "committed suicide," David Cameron got overshadowed, their website was blocked (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-34070655) and hopefully they'll succeed in toppling the #1 "donation" master. A reason why Singapore built a better nation than Malaysia after getting kicked out of Malaya was that they were obsessed over rooting out corruption and this made Singapore ripe for foreign investment. Southeast countries like Indonesia or Malaysia need this to enrich themselves, and not just the political class.
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/what-you-need-to-know-about-malaysias-bersih-movement
Quote from: http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/anti-bersih-reds-prepare-to-fight-yellow-shirted-bersih-protestors
"There will be a closed door training for our members tonight (Wednesday) and they will use long knives (parang) and swords for self-defence," he told The Star Online.
I worry for the protesters to say the least, with the added fear that too many of my family are in it, so I hope things go well.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: darkflagrance on August 29, 2015, 07:02:45 pm
Bersih protesters demanding resignation of the prime minister (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/live-despite-putrajayas-numerous-attempts-to-stop-it-crowds-starting-to-gat) who's more than a tiny bit corrupt. People have "committed suicide," David Cameron got overshadowed, their website was blocked (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-34070655) and hopefully they'll succeed in toppling the #1 "donation" master. A reason why Singapore built a better nation than Malaysia after getting kicked out of Malaya was that they were obsessed over rooting out corruption and this made Singapore ripe for foreign investment. Southeast countries like Indonesia or Malaysia need this to enrich themselves, and not just the political class.
http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/what-you-need-to-know-about-malaysias-bersih-movement
Quote from: http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/anti-bersih-reds-prepare-to-fight-yellow-shirted-bersih-protestors
"There will be a closed door training for our members tonight (Wednesday) and they will use long knives (parang) and swords for self-defence," he told The Star Online.
I worry for the protesters to say the least, with the added fear that too many of my family are in it, so I hope things go well.

Quote
Police fired tear gas and used water cannons with chemical-laced water at the demonstrators to stop the march. More than 1,000 people were reportedly arrested.

Considering this has been the pattern for past protests, without seeming effect on the level of corruption of Malaysian politics, I don't see this protest alone going well.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: SirQuiamus on September 06, 2015, 10:01:52 am
Unremitting Horror. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/09/why_drivers_in_china_intentionally_kill_the_pedestrians_they_hit_china_s.html)

EDIT: Follow-up Q&A with the author. (http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/foreigners/2015/09/why_do_drivers_in_china_kill_pedestrians_on_purpose_ask_geoffrey_sant_about.html) As interesting as it is blood-curdling.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 06, 2015, 10:19:57 am
God damn it
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on September 06, 2015, 11:42:11 am
What the actual fuck.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 06, 2015, 11:54:00 am
There's no social malignancy quite like Chinese social malignancy.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Strife26 on September 06, 2015, 12:04:17 pm
That definitely seems to be on the list of problems that can be solved by shooting people who deserve to get shot.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Frumple on September 06, 2015, 12:13:09 pm
... from what I recall from discussion on the subject, the article kinda' overstates things, at least regarding the legal aspect. Problem seems to be primarily corruption rather than something wrong with the laws. When things actually work like they're supposed to, the second-hit folks get nailed with murder charges (which, y'know, can come with the death penalty). When they don't, well...

Other side of it seems to be that to a degree it's a problem that china finds to be most economical to just... let go. Letting people get away with the occasional murder costs the state less than preventing it, and so that's what happens. Murder trial costs more than a funeral :-\

Also not exactly a strictly chinese issue. Same sort of behavior pops up anywhere where similar incentives exist -- we've seen roughly same thing coming out of the US police force, ferex, because it's easier for some precincts to deal with a dead person than someone alive and suing. Every so often you get to hear about the cops sitting around or holding off calling/preventing medical help, letting someone bleed out, just to avoid the bureaucratic issues involved with a living person. That kind of "social malignancy" is fairly universal, heh. China's just get several metric fucktons of people, so it's a bit more visible.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: SirQuiamus on September 06, 2015, 12:58:17 pm
...Every so often you get to hear about the cops sitting around or holding off calling/preventing medical help, letting someone bleed out, just to avoid the bureaucratic issues involved with a living person...
Strangely enough, those incidents from the Abusive Policing thread were the first thing that popped into my mind while reading the article. Fresh culprits trying desperately to get rid of evidence, witnesses, plaintiffs, at any cost. "Out, damn'd spot! Out, I say!"

Local malignancies may vary, but the Grand Universal Malignancy is that human life does indeed have a de facto price, and that price is heart-breakingly cheap in most instances.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: notquitethere on September 09, 2015, 06:47:07 pm
In much drier news, here's a great article (http://qz.com/497287/singapore-blogger-roy-ngerng-sued-by-prime-minister-lee/) on why the Singaporean mandatory pension system isn't a very good deal for the pensioners. It's a much more engrossing read than you'd think.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 09, 2015, 07:07:36 pm
In much drier news, here's a great article (http://qz.com/497287/singapore-blogger-roy-ngerng-sued-by-prime-minister-lee/) on why the Singaporean mandatory pension system isn't a very good deal for the pensioners. It's a much more engrossing read than you'd think.
Could be big for the SE country that prides itself on its incorruptibility being corrupt
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: SirQuiamus on September 10, 2015, 07:03:23 am
In much drier news, here's a great article (http://qz.com/497287/singapore-blogger-roy-ngerng-sued-by-prime-minister-lee/) on why the Singaporean mandatory pension system isn't a very good deal for the pensioners. It's a much more engrossing read than you'd think.
Could be big for the SE country that prides itself on its incorruptibility being corrupt
What they need is more authoritarianism and less transparency. Democracy bad, corruption worse, hierarchy good, oligarchy better! They'll soon be as incorruptible as the Russians or the Chinese!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 11, 2015, 04:03:35 pm
What they need is more authoritarianism and less transparency. Democracy bad, corruption worse, hierarchy good, oligarchy better! They'll soon be as incorruptible as the Russians or the Chinese!
Chewing gum licenses m8
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: SirQuiamus on September 11, 2015, 07:48:33 pm
Caning gays and gum chewers make economy stronger! This is fact, look at Singapore!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 11, 2015, 08:16:39 pm
Strong like bamboo cane
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on October 29, 2015, 04:49:13 pm
thread revival with some news out of china. they have lifted the one child policy.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/10/29/452790764/one-child-no-more-china-ends-decades-old-restriction
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 29, 2015, 04:54:34 pm
Woo, yeah! Let the world burn! 4 billion Chinese by 2050, hell, let's make it 5!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on October 29, 2015, 04:58:39 pm
You say that like you thought it was possible for a ball of tar dunked in gasoline to not find some way to ignite. Besides, they still aren't allowing for growth, just replacement.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 29, 2015, 05:04:40 pm
Not even replacement actually.  Just a slower decline.  A lot of Chinese people aren't going to have a second child anyway and two thirds of the population was already exempt.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 29, 2015, 05:21:38 pm
Exactly. This has been on the way for a long time, and popular resentment had begun to brew as many of the "noveau riche" had taken to flaunting their extra children as a status symbol -- the fine levied for an extra child was exorbitant if you were a rural peasant, but not that big a deal (a few thousand dollars) if you were one of the urban elite.

I wouldn't exactly agree with the "two thirds already exempt" bit, but there were exemptions for the various non-Han ethnic groups in China (which are only about 8% of the total population). The other exemption allowed to many was a second child if the first was a female (enacted in part to prevent mass infanticde of girls and that was only since 2007). There was also a provincial-level decision made in 2007 (2011 in Henan) that if both parents were only children, the couple could have a second child.

In 2014, Zhejiang allowed for a 2nd child if even ONE parent was an only child, and since then all the provinces except Tibet and Xinjiang have followed suit (where large portions of the population are non-Han and thus not subject to the policy anyways).

What they've found is that a lot of people aren't option for a 2nd child even if allowed, because damn -- kids are mad expensive, yo.

There's also a looming demographic bulge created by the one-child policy. It's been in place for 35 years, and if you think of it as an "anti-baby boom", the repercussions are apparent. You have a large segment of the population born prior to 1980 which are hitting middle and old age, and a considerably smaller proportion of young people in China to work and pay taxes and to support all those old Chinese.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 29, 2015, 05:33:07 pm
There was also a provincial-level decision made in 2007 (2011 in Henan) that if both parents were only children, the couple could have a second child.

I thought that was nation wide?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 29, 2015, 05:43:52 pm
Aw yeah, China will have the manpower to send colonists through space
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 29, 2015, 07:08:01 pm
There was also a provincial-level decision made in 2007 (2011 in Henan) that if both parents were only children, the couple could have a second child.

I thought that was nation wide?
It is, but the point is that this was a decision made at the provincial government level, not coming from Beijing directly. In any case, it's been superseded by the more permissive "if one parent is an only child" policy, which was also adopted on a provincial basis and covers everything but Xinjiang and Tibet. I'm thinking the reason it didn't get passed there is that the provincial bodies have larger representation from non-Han populations, which are already worried that the Han are going to move in and assimilate them with sheer numbers.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on October 29, 2015, 08:39:36 pm
There was also a provincial-level decision made in 2007 (2011 in Henan) that if both parents were only children, the couple could have a second child.

I thought that was nation wide?
It is, but the point is that this was a decision made at the provincial government level, not coming from Beijing directly. In any case, it's been superseded by the more permissive "if one parent is an only child" policy, which was also adopted on a provincial basis and covers everything but Xinjiang and Tibet. I'm thinking the reason it didn't get passed there is that the provincial bodies have larger representation from non-Han populations, which are already worried that the Han are going to move in and assimilate them with sheer numbers.
I agree with that assessment.  For those who aren't familiar with the one-child policy's myriad exceptions, the policy does not apply to non-Han minorities, which significantly reduces the incentive for Uyghur and Tibetan populations to relax the regulations due to the demographic situation in their respective autonomous regions; they see no reason to grant the same demographic benefits they already possess to the Han majorities when they're already in danger of being out-populated into insignificance.  The same permissiveness also applies to rural areas and towns, as the rapid urbanization of China and the flood of people to the coastal cities had had significant demographic effects on the interior, but this and most of the other exceptions haven't resulted in this sort of ethnic-, cultural-, or class-based political conflict. 

EDIT: Oh, you already said it yourself in a earlier post's parenthetical I missed.  Sorry. >_<
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 30, 2015, 05:13:44 pm
Apparently a Chinese admiral (or Naval chief or whatever) threatened war over us sending a ship near those island forts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-southchinasea-usa-china-navy-idUSKCN0SO05320151030

It's probably just sabre rattling, but hey, if there is a war over it, at least we won't be firing the first shot.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: WealthyRadish on October 30, 2015, 05:23:42 pm
I remember hearing on the radio about an incident (probably years ago) where a Chinese fighter jet pilot flew aggressively close to a US plane or something, and was called a "hotdog" by whatever analyst they had commenting on it. I think I'm doomed for the rest of my life to laugh at that every time something similar happens.

But no, contrary to that article title, there isn't any chance of war. There's a small chance of escalation of maneuvers that could possibly create an incident that would only lead to war if both parties wanted it to.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: miljan on October 30, 2015, 05:29:50 pm
Apparently a Chinese admiral (or Naval chief or whatever) threatened war over us sending a ship near those island forts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/30/us-southchinasea-usa-china-navy-idUSKCN0SO05320151030

It's probably just sabre rattling, but hey, if there is a war over it, at least we won't be firing the first shot.

Ehh if USA stops provoking them maybe nothing will happen, but if they continue to ask for the bullet who knows. This is not the first nor the last incident how it seems

http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-us-china-20150522-story.html
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on October 30, 2015, 05:40:29 pm
The U.S. Navy was asking for it, have you seen how revealing those uniforms are? Fucking sluts.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 30, 2015, 05:42:30 pm
I remember hearing on the radio about an incident (probably years ago) where a Chinese fighter jet pilot flew aggressively close to a US plane or something, and was called a "hotdog" by whatever analyst they had commenting on it. I think I'm doomed for the rest of my life to laugh at that every time something similar happens.

But no, contrary to that article title, there isn't any chance of war. There's a small chance of escalation of maneuvers that could possibly create an incident that would only lead to war if both parties wanted it to.

There's been a couple of those over the years, yeah.

I too don't think there will be a war because, well, honestly, neither side wants a war.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 30, 2015, 06:25:12 pm
The U.S. Navy was asking for it, have you seen how revealing those uniforms are? Fucking sluts.

Mhmmm, yeeeeeaah

https://youtu.be/InBXu-iY7cw?t=1m37s

But more seriously, there's no way that a war would start right now.  The US wants the status quo, those international waters remain international waters.  China can't change the status quo yet because all those fancy high tech weapons of theirs aren't ready yet.  Maybe 10 (or 20) years down the line when both sides actually have a navy we will need to be worried.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 30, 2015, 07:34:48 pm
You don't start a land war with China but China also knows you don't start a naval war with America, all should be good
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: TheDarkStar on October 30, 2015, 10:37:21 pm
Direct confrontations might be out, but proxy wars certainly aren't.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 30, 2015, 11:07:55 pm
Maybe but there's no particular reason to expect a proxy war over this.

As long as the US sails it's warships through those waters without consultation with the Chinese, there is no way that China can present it's claims as fait accompli.  So China will keep saying "it's ours" and Taiwan+Philippines+Vietnam+Japan will keep disagreeing.  As long as China isn't willing to threaten the US with war over the issue, the waters are de facto international waters.  So China wouldn't gain anything on this issue by trying to muscle Vietnam for example, it's the US they'd need to bring around.  And on the other hand none of the regional powers have the capability to win a fight with China in those waters, they all rely on the American navy.  So there really isn't potential for a proxy war over these waters.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 30, 2015, 11:09:03 pm
There's probably a higher chance of shit happening with Russian warplanes bombing US special forces in Syria. Like others have said, nobody on either side of US-China relations wants a war at this juncture. Admiral Wu's statement is primarily for domestic consumption.

Also this Reuters article seems written expressly to make shit out of this that isn't there.
Quote
The U.S. Navy is operating in a maritime domain bristling with Chinese ships.

While the U.S. Navy is expected to keep its technological edge in Asia for decades, China's potential trump card is sheer weight of numbers, with dozens of naval and coastguard vessels routinely deployed in the South China Sea, security experts say.

Oooh. Whatever would we do against dozens of corvettes and frigates?
The PLAN South Sea Fleet has:

10 DDs (3600-7000 ton displacement)
17 FGs (1700-4000 ton displacement)
5 Corvettes (1500 ton displacement)
8 Ming-class subs (old Soviet Romeo-class, a design that's 60+ years old)

By contrast, the USS Lassen, which we sent as a big floating "I'm not touching you" to the PLAN, is 9200 tons displacement. And that's a minor vessel in terms of the US Navy. A single US carrier group would outweigh and outgun the entire PLAN South Sea Fleet combined. The PLAN is still a brown-water navy and will remain so far at least another 10 years.

Sorry to veer into armchair general (admiral?) territory, but I just have to roll my eyes at articles that play up Chinese military strength, especially one that uses thinly-veiled Yellow Peril tropes like "they could overwhelm with sheer numbers", when the actual numbers are a joke compared to their potential adversary. The USN has more Arleigh Burke-class destroyers than the PLAN has destroyers, frigates *and* corvettes in total.

Addendum: Technically the Liaoning, China's sole aircraft carrier, is part of the South Sea Fleet, but it's still not really combat-capable, for a number of reasons.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sinistar on October 31, 2015, 03:09:12 am
Speaking of what China might become in next ~10 or so years: an Orwellian masturbatory material, for starters (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-34592186). I mean, even more than now. It's both depressing and hilarious you could further your social status depending whether you "have been instructed to take birth control".

And also: the new 5 years plans is out and so is video about it (https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/658837440375844864). It's... funky? I dunno. Though it is interesting that 1) it's been posted on Twitter that's banned in China iirc and 2) it's in English. Propaganda aimed at westerners, I guess?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on October 31, 2015, 06:14:44 am
I feel like I've posted to watch this thread several times now bit it never shows up in my updated threads feed so I guess I must not have? Anyway this is PTW.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: WealthyRadish on October 31, 2015, 08:32:28 pm
And also: the new 5 years plans is out and so is video about it (https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/658837440375844864). It's... funky? I dunno. Though it is interesting that 1) it's been posted on Twitter that's banned in China iirc and 2) it's in English. Propaganda aimed at westerners, I guess?

This video is incredibly surreal. Seeing it makes me think I'm in someone's dystopian alternate universe.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on October 31, 2015, 08:42:22 pm
I can't find concrete details, but officials are saying that they're going to be shifting somewhat from export-oriented to a consumption-oriented industry. I can think of a lot of implications for such a shift, but I'll wait for the actual thing to come out and for people who know better than I do to go over it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: majikero on October 31, 2015, 09:39:40 pm
Does that mean global economy is going to implode leaving a china shaped hole?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on October 31, 2015, 10:05:39 pm
Doubtful, but it could mean there'll be a huge manufacturing boom in Africa, Indochina, and maybe India if they ever get their heads out of their collective bottoms, if wages in China start to increase.  Still, that's something I've been hearing for quite a while, and China hasn't exactly made too much progress in it beyond the coasts yet. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 31, 2015, 10:19:32 pm
I can't find concrete details, but officials are saying that they're going to be shifting somewhat from export-oriented to a consumption-oriented industry.

That was the goal of the 12th five year plan.  It will probably be the goal of the 14th five year plan as well...

Does that mean global economy is going to implode leaving a china shaped hole?

IIRC the rule of thumb is that the percentage decline in imports is about twice the reduction of GDP from whatever adverse shock you are considering.  So China previously had about 1.5 trillion in imports.  We expect GDP to lag behind previous expectations by about 5% or so in the years to come.  So Chinese imports will decline by about 150 billion per year but that decline will happen over several years.  That is bad news for various companies but probably not enough to tip Japan or the US back into recession.

It is possible that the Chinese recession will be much deeper then this, in which case the decline will be greater.  If Chinese growth ground to a complete halt for instance (pretty darn unlikely) Japan would lose about 30 billion dollars in exports to China per year.  That would probably mean a recession for Japan but probably not a self-reinforcing recessionary spiral unless coupled with a seperate negative shock for the Japanese economy.  Europe would lose about the same amount of exports but spread over an economy four times the size so even that severe event wouldn't be a huge deal for the EU economy.  Smaller economies near China the export heavily to China would be much more exposed, like Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on November 01, 2015, 10:18:57 am
Doubtful, but it could mean there'll be a huge manufacturing boom in Africa, Indochina, and maybe India if they ever get their heads out of their collective bottoms, if wages in China start to increase.  Still, that's something I've been hearing for quite a while, and China hasn't exactly made too much progress in it beyond the coasts yet.
I see a glorious future where Americans work 16-hour days with no healthcare to make cheap-ass novelty trinkets and substandard food products for a bloated, lazy Chinese middle class.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: sluissa on November 01, 2015, 11:45:39 am
Doubtful, but it could mean there'll be a huge manufacturing boom in Africa, Indochina, and maybe India if they ever get their heads out of their collective bottoms, if wages in China start to increase.  Still, that's something I've been hearing for quite a while, and China hasn't exactly made too much progress in it beyond the coasts yet.
I see a glorious future where Americans work 16-hour days with no healthcare to make cheap-ass novelty trinkets and substandard food products for a bloated, lazy Chinese middle class.

That's not already happening?

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 13, 2016, 03:06:23 pm
Necro'ing my own thread to discuss something that will have some pretty damn major effects, at least within Thailand:

After 70 years of rule, Thailand's King Bhumibol Adulyadej has died. Beloved by most people, King Rama IX (his royal name) was stuck in a situation not unlike Japanese Emperor Hirohito, where a lot of shit was done "in his name" that he wasn't too keen on, but lacked the actual power to rein it in. And as with Japan, it's mostly been the Thai military, backed by ardent royalists in the government, that have been wielding the King's name like a hammer. Criticizing the King is a state crime, which provoked some irony last year when he publicly stated that he is just a man, and should be criticized if he's wrong -- leading some to tweet wondering if the army (remember, Thailand is under a military government at the moment) would arrest the King for disrespecting himself. And then arrest themselves for arresting the King. Rama IX was the longest-reigning monarch in Thai history, so this is a watershed event for the Thai people, on par with the death of Queen Victoria.

Now...the bigger problem is the Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. Having a name that sounds like "long corn" is the least of his problems. He is, by all accounts, an erratic, ill-tempered, incapable buffoon. (And I've just ensured I won't be visiting Thailand anytime soon by saying that.) He's been married and divorced three times, and the last ex-wife, he demanded that the Thai courts strip her and her family of all royal titles and place her in exile.

This is the same wife, btw, that he forced to eat nearly naked on the floor at his dog's birthday party. But only after she fed the dog birthday cake. Incidentally, the dog held the rank of air chief marshal in the Royal Thai Air Force.

When Fufu passed on to doggie pilot heaven in 2015, it received a state funeral with four days of Buddhist funeral rites.

His second wife up and flew the coop, emigrating to the US. In retaliation, he had her and their children stripped of all rank and their passports cancelled. He later had their youngest daughter abducted and returned to Thailand, where her title was reinstated.

So yeah.....Thai people have been dreading this day for a while now. And he's an only child -- not sure who would be in line for succession if he was removed or found incapable. Vajiralongkorn has 7 kids, but four of them (including 3 sons) were delegitimized. That leaves a daughter by his first wife, a daughter by his second wife, and an 11-year old son by his third wife. I suppose the 11-year old would have a regency, and I also suppose that the Thai people would be more or less okay if that's what the army decided to do.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 13, 2016, 03:32:28 pm
Well, I looked at the wiki page and it seems that the only (assuming that Thailand won't pick a queen as a reigning monarch) viable successor is his youngest child, who is still a kid.

So, the answer would likely be found in history, someone becomes the regent for the kid. Though I could see a possible succession crisis arising.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 13, 2016, 04:22:47 pm
There's no leadership degeneracy quite like sexual degeneracy.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: WealthyRadish on October 17, 2016, 07:00:43 pm
Could be worse. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dipendra_of_Nepal)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: PanH on October 18, 2016, 02:01:26 am
There's also a month long mourning, where festivities are kinda forbidden. Had to put back my trip to Phuket.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: sluissa on October 18, 2016, 07:37:38 am
Why is it that it always seems the well loved, long lived king is inevitably followed up by the horrible child?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on October 18, 2016, 07:40:45 am
Why is it that it always seems the well loved, long lived king is inevitably followed up by the horrible child?

Because a long reign with a revered king give the prince a sense of entitlement (since his father was so loved) without any actual reponsability.

There's also a month long mourning, where festivities are kinda forbidden. Had to put back my trip to Phuket.

Why the hell would you want to go to Phuket? If you have a fetish for fat Germans, Majorqua is cheaper.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 18, 2016, 09:31:14 am
It's actually a year-long period of mourning, but they're only cancelling happiness for 30 days.

Meanwhile, the hardcore royalists are getting kind of ugly. (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/thailand-king-bhumibol-death-spurs-ultra-monarchists-161018074519703.html)

Mobs of people are attacking folks for "insufficient mourning". By, you know, not having anything black to wear.
The military is trying to discourage this "black-shaming", but they have to be careful -- crack too hard on it, and they could face major civil unrest. They've used lese majeste as a hammer for some time, and now it's starting to get away from them.


EDIT: Oh, and Vajiralongkorn has not take the throne yet. Officially, he said he was not ready (no shit Sherlock) and needed time to mourn his father. Unofficially....I dunno. Maybe he knows he's way in over his head on this, or maybe he's waiting to see if the military will *let* him take the throne.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 18, 2016, 08:44:59 pm
The king couldn't have been that good if he allowed people like that to flourish.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 18, 2016, 08:48:42 pm
That's like saying the Vice-President is bad because BLM protestors engaged in mob violence. Being important doesn't give you mind-control powers or omnipotence.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 18, 2016, 08:55:57 pm
That's like saying the Vice-President is bad because BLM protestors engaged in mob violence. Being important doesn't give you mind-control powers or omnipotence.

BLM isn't a radical group of vice president supporters.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 18, 2016, 09:00:17 pm
Fine, Haile Selassie and the Rastas lynching LGBT people. What more can you do than say "stop being assholes, you assholes, I command you"? Thailand is a military state by now, if people are caught up in royalist mob mentality then no, even the king being against them won't stop it.

God Himself could come down from the clouds and tell Abrahamic faith followers to stop being assholes, and nine-tenths of them would find a reason to not listen. The devout are not devout to a pure ideal, they're devout to their own desire to follow their own interpretation of an ideal.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 18, 2016, 09:06:49 pm
Yeah you aren't going to fix it easily and quickly but the guy was king for decades.  Even in a purely symbolic role that is plenty of time to get dialogues going.  It doesn't make him horrible but if your legacy is angry thugs you cant be that great leader.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 18, 2016, 09:11:46 pm
He was up against something that doesn't work well against. It would be one thing for the state to be one structure with him at even just the symbolic helm, trying to spread a more moderate and reasonable ideal down through the government. As is, he was up against the active forces of the Thai military apparatus, who were in the rarely observed position of being loyal to but utterly against him. Not to mention they're kind of fractured out of the normal state, but have wide-ranging authority.

And unlike the king's attempt at dialogue, the Thai military apparatus has batons and guns. One is somewhat more persuasive, and this was starting from a point where listening to the actual king was going to be difficult for a lot of Thais just out of circumstance.

One only wonders what actual imitations the military put on the guy himself. "Sorry Your Highness, you can't go out today. Security concerns."
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: mainiac on October 18, 2016, 09:23:39 pm
Not really seeing how that matters.  I'm not saying he is responsible for the military.  I'm saying he is responsible for his own fanboys.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 18, 2016, 09:35:44 pm
His fanboys who run the military? Besides, they're not personal fans. They're fans of kinglyness and TRAAADDDIIIITTIOONNNNNNNNNN!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Tiruin on October 19, 2016, 12:26:31 am
His fanboys who run the military? Besides, they're not personal fans. They're fans of kinglyness and TRAAADDDIIIITTIOONNNNNNNNNN!
+1 to the thoughts behind these ._.
Sometimes there are followers in name who follow the concept rather than the person's meaning--and a ruler cannot control a person's free will; it's also in their understanding and a social issue, which is at many times in history far more complex than the mere idea of them being extreme. You can be a great leader, but your country can have not-really-great-at-all behaviors in the people, and they can possibly be not connected altogether. Hence context.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on October 19, 2016, 04:59:35 am
It's hard, because the king is supposed to be above the day-to-day fray of politics. His hardcore "supporter", the yellow shirts, are actually the traditional middle-class and elite based in and around bangkok using royalism as a stick to put down the populist red shirts. If the king intervened one way or another it would destroy his standing and support.

This need of neutrality go so far that the royal color was changed from yellow to pink after the yellow shirt started using it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Tiruin on October 19, 2016, 07:06:39 am
Why is it that it always seems the well loved, long lived king is inevitably followed up by the horrible child?

Because a long reign with a revered king give the prince a sense of entitlement (since his father was so loved) without any actual reponsability.
Not always though :P There's a long list of Asian literature that has this happen--but the child is also as strong-willed and thoughtful, primarily because the entitlement is shaven away by experience and exposure, but especially understanding.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 19, 2016, 08:07:12 am
As I said before, I see the parallels to the Japanese Emperor in the 1930's. Hirohito wasn't particularly interested in expanding Japanese territory or going to war with the major European powers, but he had to tread carefully because the real power lay with the military. And even the military leaders had to tread carefully because the *real* power, the folks who were likely to kill you for saying "Maybe we should think twice about this" were the junior officer cadre. As in the 2-26 Incident, where a group of junior officers tried to assassinate most of the civilian government and several of the more democratic-leaning senior officers.

Like Turkey and Pakistan, Thailand has a checkered history as far as both military and civilian rule are concerned. They've been under military rule for most of their modern history (certainly since becoming Thailand instead of Siam).

1932-1946: Military government (with young king in exile)
1946-1947: Civilian government
1947-1973: Military government
1973: Student-led democratic protests. King sides with the protesters, criticizes the military for their handling of the protests. Military PM resigns, is replaced with a civilian PM.
1973-1976: Unstable democracy which quickly veered to the Left, while the middle class stayed conservative. Military takes over in a coup (with US blessing).
1976-1992: Military government
1992-2006: Civilian government
2006-2007: Military coup
2007-2008: Civilian government
2008-current: Military government

As you can see, the period of civilian government from 1992-2006 was actually the longest period of civilian rule in modern Thai history.  :-\

It kind of follows the trend of a lot of Southeast Asian and Latin American countries in the 20th century -- conservative royal/military rule gives way to democracy, but the leaders of the democracy go too far to the Left too fast, freak out the military (and after 1945, the military's ally in the US), and the military steps in to prevent "the spread of Communism".

In the modern post-Cold War era, the pretext has been political corruption rather than rampant Leftism. And, as in Turkey and Pakistan, it's not a total fabrication -- Thaksin Shinawat's government *was* corrupt as hell. He even had an anti-drug campaign not dissimilar to Duerte's in that thousands of extra-judicial killings too place as a result.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on November 21, 2016, 04:28:39 pm
Japan just had a 7.3 quake, Tsunami warning as well.

edit: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/21/asia/japan-earthquake/index.html?adkey=bn  Crap, Fukushima prefecture again. Same fault as the Fukushima quake a couple years ago? edit2: Actually, it's further south from the epicenter of the one five years ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami (compare that map to the CNN one)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on November 21, 2016, 04:51:41 pm
Tsunami warning has been issued for the entire Pacific northern coastlines. I hope they finished sealing the Fukushima reactors :P
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on November 21, 2016, 04:53:42 pm
I wonder how it'll affect that ruined Fukushima nuclear plant. The quake shouldn't affect it, it survived the bigger one five years ago, it's the tsunami that got it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on November 21, 2016, 06:59:59 pm
Stay safe, Japanese and pacific coastliners.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: TheBiggerFish on November 27, 2016, 07:11:14 am
Stay safe, Japanese and pacific coastliners.
Yeah...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on May 14, 2017, 11:13:49 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/business/china-railway-one-belt-one-road-1-trillion-plan.html?_r=0

Interesting.

also reviving this thread.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 14, 2017, 12:13:12 pm
Not this thread again. Are you telling me we are *still* at war with Eastasia?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on May 14, 2017, 03:50:08 pm
Chairman, you of all people should know.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 17, 2017, 07:51:15 am
Meanwhile in China, the Chinese government is getting into a serious attempt at creating an Orwellian biometric database.
Starting in the Xinjiang province, every resident that applies for a new passport will have to give DNA, fingerprints, and speech samples for a voice recognition database.

The reason given is that it is meant to more effectively combat terrorism. The Xinjiang province houses many islamic Uyghurs. The region is plagued by frequent terrorist bombings.

Earlier this year, Chinese authorities made fitting your vehicle with a tracking device mandatory. Any car without the state supplied tracking device installed, will not be able to get service at any gas station.

Not just the Xingjiang province is subject to DNA sampling. Photgraphs on the CHinese website Tieba show that people are being required to give DNA in schools, offices, and on the streets, without obvious reason. Just cooperating as a witness for police enquiry will also ensure your DNA gets taken.
In Shandong, the entire student population of university was made to give their DNA, supposedly to help solve a crime.

Privacy laws concerning DNA are still mostly in the making, but as of now, China already has the largest DNA database in the world. Three procent of the Chinese population has been registered, making for 40 million DNA samples.

Most people do not know if they have a right to refuse having their DNA taken. State media do their best to make giving DNA look only good, broadcasting tv shows in which biological parents are reunited with their children through use of a missing persons DNA database, and giving extra attention to crimes solved thourgh DNA evidence. While collecting DNA on the streets, social media report that police officers very often convince people to give up their DNA by playing into the fear parents have that their child will be stolen and sold, a thing that happens quite often in poor areas.

http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/china-legt-enorme-dna-databanken-aan-orwelliaans-genetisch-systeem~a4495411/ (http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/china-legt-enorme-dna-databanken-aan-orwelliaans-genetisch-systeem~a4495411/)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 17, 2017, 08:16:16 am
China has the largest single database in the world, but they're far short of the largest percentage, e.g. a quick google for the UK shows that they have a database with 5.7 million people, which is double what it was 10 years ago. So UK is nearing 10% of the population DNA sampled, which looks like it makes UK the most heavily DNA sampled nation by a wide margin.

My country Australia also has about 3% of people with their DNA stored, while USA is similar (~3%) with their national database (9 million), but 49 / 50 states also have their own DNA databases:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_database

It turns out that Kuwait is one nation with mandatory DNA sampling of the entire population, although sources are contradictory on that, there was a huge backlash against the law. Portugal also wanted to set that up, but they were talked out of it. In general, Continental Europe has good protections against DNA sampling, while English-speaking countries and elsewhere do not.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 17, 2017, 10:55:41 am
The UK has always been at war with eastasia tbqh
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 17, 2017, 12:19:34 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-39945220

Quote
Since 1989 when China started collecting DNA, it has amassed the genetic information of more than 40 million people. In the US, the national DNA index of offenders has only 12.7 million offender profiles.

Percentage-wise the US is still ahead of China though, having about 4% of the population indexed while China only has 2.9%.

The BBC however doesn't make any memtion of DNA Database in the UK which far outstrips anywhere else in percentage terms. Overall given the time they've been at it and the total figures, China has still been collecting DNA information from it's citizens slower (percentage) than the USA, and far slower than the UK, for the last three decades.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on May 17, 2017, 12:37:15 pm
Why always the tu quoque when things nonwestern countries are doing comes up? Yeah, they have less collected at this moment, but considering registration (and far more invasive than the UK or USA collects at that) is mandatory I expect they'll pass everyone else fairly soon. Hopefully it goes badly for them, so other countries don't feel the need to follow their example.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 17, 2017, 12:46:54 pm
I'd imagine it's going to be stymied by cost. India wanted to set something up but the cost would be prohibitive.
https://qz.com/463279/indias-dna-profiling-bill-may-become-one-of-the-worlds-most-intrusive-laws/

Quote
On costs: India wants to record the DNA of everyone ever arrested for a criminal offence. In 2012 alone, there were 3.2 million arrests. At that rate, the asked-for Rs 20 crores ($3.3 million) is probably too little to build and maintain a database. For comparison, the UK spent £300 million ($450 million) just to setup a database.

http://dnapolicyinitiative.org/forums/topic/is-dna-database-expansion-worth-the-cost/
Quote
UK Home Office figures show that the cost of running the national DNA database has more than doubled since 2002-03.

So yeah they could expand it to 10% of China (which would be proportionally similar to the UK) but I'm guessing that would become increasingly expensive to maintain. So i'm going to take a punt here and say that they won't end up doing that. it's not the most effective means of achieving whatever it is they want to achieve.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 17, 2017, 12:53:19 pm
Maybe they should start by arresting less people for yelling at cows
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 17, 2017, 12:59:46 pm
Yelling at Cows is a good name for a band
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on May 17, 2017, 01:02:55 pm
Should be Yelling at Kows.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on May 17, 2017, 01:11:42 pm
I'd imagine it's going to be stymied by cost. India wanted to set something up but the cost would be prohibitive.
https://qz.com/463279/indias-dna-profiling-bill-may-become-one-of-the-worlds-most-intrusive-laws/

Quote
On costs: India wants to record the DNA of everyone ever arrested for a criminal offence. In 2012 alone, there were 3.2 million arrests. At that rate, the asked-for Rs 20 crores ($3.3 million) is probably too little to build and maintain a database. For comparison, the UK spent £300 million ($450 million) just to setup a database.

http://dnapolicyinitiative.org/forums/topic/is-dna-database-expansion-worth-the-cost/
Quote
UK Home Office figures show that the cost of running the national DNA database has more than doubled since 2002-03.

So yeah they could expand it to 10% of China (which would be proportionally similar to the UK) but I'm guessing that would become increasingly expensive to maintain. So i'm going to take a punt here and say that they won't end up doing that. it's not the most effective means of achieving whatever it is they want to achieve.

Your source is random forum posters, who do not themselves cite any sources. Why should it be any more expensive than any other large data storage project? That's getting cheaper all the time, and it's certainly within the means of the Chinese government to do that for a good portion of Xinjiang province's ~12 million Uighurs that the government is trying to use the program to suppress.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 17, 2017, 01:36:58 pm
When you're interfacing with real people there are a lot of set costs. Data storage is cheap, but infrastructure to collect and make use of data is the expensive part. Costs go down when you can avoid face to face communication. How is that going to work with DNA? Anyway, out of the $US 450 million that the UK spent to establish their database, the storage of DNA information only accounts for a tiny proportion of those costs. Cheaper hard drives isn't going to really reduce the costs of the infrastructure for a national DNA system.

And the only comment I posted was a guy citing figures which are easily googled to find actual articles

Quote
UK Home Office figures show that the cost of running the national DNA database has more than doubled since 2002-03.

The fact that it was a very specific claim makes it straightforward to check with google:

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/09/05/dna_database_dosh/
Quote
Home Office figures show that the cost of running the national DNA database has more than doubled since 2002-03.
Actually that was in 2008, so the costs would be higher now I'm guessing.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on May 23, 2017, 03:07:57 pm
Filipino Islamists loyal to a group called Maute have staged a large-scale attack in the city of Marawi. A group of at least 15 gunmen raised an Islamic State flag over a local hospital and have been moving through the streets. A later attack was staged on the local prison with the intention of releasing detainees, and appears to have been successful. The national guard has moved into the area and will probably not have much trouble exterminating them (there are between 500 and 1000 in total), but they've so far caused quite a lot of damage.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/philippines-isis-gunmen-soldiers-army-marawi-city-street-battle-terrorist-jihadi-a7751406.html
http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/05/23/marawi-city-clash.html#.WSRNGGvTwos.twitter
https://twitter.com/geopolitiquee/status/867097836147675138
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 23, 2017, 06:23:48 pm
Dang, that's bad.
While the West is focussing on the Middle East and Africa, militant islamism is a growing (and underestimated) problem in Asia as well. People tend to forget that more than half of the world's muslim population lives in just Indonesia, and that's just one country in Asia. Technically the arab world is a minority of the world's muslim population, it's just that they stand out in spreading the violent interpretations of islam. Which has slowly but steadily been spreading it's influence amongst the traditionally moderate and generally tolerant Asian muslims, sadly, reaching a recent climax in the metaphorical lynching of Jakarta's governor.

Now muslim insurgence isn't new to the Philippines either, but this is an attack on worrisome scale, if you ask me (or at least worrisome level of organistation, if they really managed to bust a prison). I hope Duterte can handle it without creating even more opression in his country.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Flying Dice on May 23, 2017, 06:55:46 pm
Yeah, just heard about this. Shit's looking bad in the photos that've been posted. From what I heard they've burned a police station as well as attacking the prison.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 23, 2017, 07:58:34 pm
Quote
more than half of the world's muslim population lives in just Indonesia

I don't think you got that quite right. There are 1.8 billion Muslims, and Indonesia isn't quite that large. It's large, just not that large. However, articles state there are 900 million Muslims in Asia, which is half. So maybe you mixed up that detail from an article.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/31/worlds-muslim-population-more-widespread-than-you-might-think/

this Pew Research article says 986 million muslims in asia-pacific region. It took some googling to discover what Pew research even consider to be Asia-Pacific. Every research group has their own definition:

http://www.pewforum.org/2011/01/27/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-asia/

Quote
The number of Muslims in the Asia-Pacific region – which, for purposes of this report, includes not only East Asian countries such as China but also countries as far west as Turkey

This is where report headlines can be misleading. Turkey is Asia-Pacific.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on May 23, 2017, 09:05:29 pm
Militants have been cleared from the city itself, but most of them apparently left the city before being captured or killed. The military is moving more units into the area, and intends to wait until they arrive before searching the surrounding countryside for the rest of them. At least three soldiers and a dozen were wounded, as well as an unknown number of militants. Property damage is extensive, with numerous fires having been started by sympathetic citizens as well as the militants themselves, and the whole city is without power. Martial law has, unsurprisingly, been declared. Local media speculates this is a retaliation for a planned raid against some "high value targets," probably leaders of the group, and started very shortly after the raid was launched.

http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2017/05/24/Duterte-martial-law-Id-be-harsh.html
http://www.rappler.com/nation/170744-timeline-marawi-city-martial-law
http://www.rappler.com/nation/170705-clashes-marawi-city-terrorist-groups
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Flying Dice on May 23, 2017, 11:04:55 pm
Quote
more than half of the world's muslim population lives in just Indonesia

I don't think you got that quite right. There are 1.8 billion Muslims, and Indonesia isn't quite that large. It's large, just not that large. However, articles state there are 900 million Muslims in Asia, which is half. So maybe you mixed up that detail from an article.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/31/worlds-muslim-population-more-widespread-than-you-might-think/

this Pew Research article says 986 million muslims in asia-pacific region. It took some googling to discover what Pew research even consider to be Asia-Pacific. Every research group has their own definition:

http://www.pewforum.org/2011/01/27/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-asia/

Quote
The number of Muslims in the Asia-Pacific region – which, for purposes of this report, includes not only East Asian countries such as China but also countries as far west as Turkey

This is where report headlines can be misleading. Turkey is Asia-Pacific.

Probably also mingled with (IIRC) the fact that Indonesia is the country with the largest Muslim population. Just not half of the world population.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 24, 2017, 03:20:43 am
Quote
more than half of the world's muslim population lives in just Indonesia

I don't think you got that quite right. There are 1.8 billion Muslims, and Indonesia isn't quite that large. It's large, just not that large. However, articles state there are 900 million Muslims in Asia, which is half. So maybe you mixed up that detail from an article.


Oh you're right. Indonesia has the largest muslim population in the world (203 million, 87.2% of the country's population), but indeed not half of the total muslim population. I must indeed have mixed it up.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on May 24, 2017, 10:05:52 am
They did mean East Asia (though the number is closer to 1 billion.

Middle East and N. Africa is about 300-400 million.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 24, 2017, 10:28:14 am
East Asia denotes a far more specific area than that. This is all about definitions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asia
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/East_Asia_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg/375px-East_Asia_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg.png)

^ i.e. they didn't mean that. Saying a region such as "east asia" isn't helpful because you obviously are referring to a different set of countries when you say it than a demographer is.

Pew Research has actually made a map showing which countries they include when they say there are 1 billion Muslims in Asia-Pacific, so you can check that out without any sort of guesswork about what the region includes:
http://www.pewforum.org/2011/01/27/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-asia/

For more close up detail, see this interactive graphic (needs flash)
http://www.pewforum.org/interactives/muslim-population-graphic/#/Asia-Pacific

By Asia-Pacific they're including everything spanning the distance from Turkey to Indonesia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 24, 2017, 10:46:52 am
The fighting in the Philippines still is not over. Army forces have been battling door to door in Marawi, and some parts of the city are still being held by enemy snipers. According to the photo with the article, they even managed to take down an army helicopter.
Duterte has declared a state of emergency for the entire island of Mindanao for 60 days, the maximum term allowed by the Constitution. During the state of emergency, all civil laws are suspended, the army is authorized to order curfews, and arrest people without trial. He has said that, if nescessary, he will not care about the Constitution and uphold the state of emergency for as long as it takes to have 'cured the island of all it's plagues'.
Duterte himself cancelled the remainder of his visit to Russia to return to the Philippines and personally oversee the fighting in Marawi.
"The state of emergency will be the same as it was under Marcos", Duterte said. Referencing to Marcos like that is a rather sensitive and unpleasant matter to many Philippinos. Ferdinand Marcos, former dictator of the Philippines, used the state of emergency in the 70s and 80s to reinforce his own position and ruthlessly kill his political opponents.

The fighting in Marawi started when government forces stormed the residence of Isnilon Hapilon, the alleged leader of IS fighters in the Philippines, and high ranking member of the infamous Abu Sayyaf terrorist organistation. When the government forces started their assault, they were suddenly met by about 100 heavily armed forces, who then spread out across the town.
They occupied a hospital and a prison, put up roadblocks and barricades, and set fire to some schools and a church. From the church they took the priest and his parochians hostage.

The government army responded by sending a few thousand troops, and spreading them out over the town, but everywhere they went, they were met with snipers fanatically holding their positions.
According to the latest reports they are still holding some of the town's bridges, and districts.
It's unclear if they actually intended to capture the town, which has about 200 thousand inhabitants.

According to the army, the insurgents are part of the 'Maute group', an organisation closely linked to Abu Sayyef. Both the Maute group and Abu Sayyef have formally sworn allegiance to IS.

The original target of the government raid, Isnilon Hapilon, is called 'emir', meaning he is the highest ranking leader of IS in the Philippines, and is known to have changed his name to Abu Abdullah al Filipini.
Both groups are infamous for fighting for IS, and for many kidnappings for ransom in the Philippines. Since 1990, Abu Sayyef has kidnapped hundreds of Philippinos and tourists for ransom.
The Maute group is held responsible for recent attacks on Mindanao, and for a series of brutal attacks on army posts and villages.
Both groups are based in the West of Mindanao, and on the many many small islands between the Philippines and Borneo.

Mindanao is the largest southern island of the Philippines, and makes up about one third of the country. It has 20 million inhabitants, of whom the majority are muslim. Ever since the 1960s, there have been small, and large civil wars with islamic seperatist movements, like the Moro National Liberation Front, and the Moro Islam Liberation Front.

Peace talks have mostly ended hostilities, but radical splinter groups have kept fighting. The Maute group, and Abu Sayyef have splintered from MILF.
Abu Sayyef used to be tied to Al Qaida, but currently seems to have completely severed those ties and joined IS.
http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/filipijns-stadje-belegerd-door-is-strijders-president-roept-staat-van-beleg-uit~a4496889/ (http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/filipijns-stadje-belegerd-door-is-strijders-president-roept-staat-van-beleg-uit~a4496889/)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on May 24, 2017, 11:15:24 pm
I mean, turkic peoples came from Central Asia.

I mean, that happened a long time ago, and it does seem a little odd. But there *could* be a reason!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Flying Dice on May 25, 2017, 12:18:25 am
East Asia denotes a far more specific area than that. This is all about definitions.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Asia
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ab/East_Asia_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg/375px-East_Asia_%28orthographic_projection%29.svg.png)

^ i.e. they didn't mean that. Saying a region such as "east asia" isn't helpful because you obviously are referring to a different set of countries when you say it than a demographer is.

Pew Research has actually made a map showing which countries they include when they say there are 1 billion Muslims in Asia-Pacific, so you can check that out without any sort of guesswork about what the region includes:
http://www.pewforum.org/2011/01/27/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-asia/

For more close up detail, see this interactive graphic (needs flash)
http://www.pewforum.org/interactives/muslim-population-graphic/#/Asia-Pacific

By Asia-Pacific they're including everything spanning the distance from Turkey to Indonesia.
A curious distinction. It would seem their specific "Asia-Pacific" region means Asia minus the Levant. An odd choice, and I can't say I necessarily agree with the division, since it feels rather arbitrary (Turkey but not Iraq?).

IIRC much of the reason surrounding the tripartite division of Asia is down to historical provenance re: international politics and cultural/imperial control. East Asia is Chinese-derived, culturally. SEA is essentially the same landmass and island chains as formerly composed the East Indies and Indochina. South Asia is predominantly defined by the old borders of British control (with some exceptions). The Middle East is distinct enough culturally, politically, and geographically to merit independent classification; eastern Russia the same. It's pretty commonly used among scholars in relevant fields. Even cut up there are still enough differences to make it difficult to discuss generalities about the regions (particularly SEA), but an effort can at least be reasonably made.

Notably, when geopolitics and culture are less of a concern than geographic relations, Oceania and SEA tend to be muddled--that distinction only exists because of the cultural differences between SEA and anglophone NZ/Oz, and because Australia is technically a continent rather than a very large member of the SEAn archipelago.
 
Basically, Asia is too large and too disparate on various fronts to reliably discuss as a single entity all the time, so arbitrary geographic divisions were drawn up based on cultural groups and historical administrative divisions. Similar deal as with the typical divisions of Europe.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 25, 2017, 03:02:43 am
- terrorist attack happens in EU. EU thread talks about the attacks
- terrorists attack happens in US. US thread talks about attacks.
- terrorist attack happens in Asia. Asia thread argues about East maybe not being west sometimes pacific with or without waves
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on May 25, 2017, 04:08:59 am
It's because we have so few people living there.

I hope all our Filipinos are safe and sound though.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 25, 2017, 04:24:12 am
The thing is we don't have a lot of news links to report. We can say "huh that's bad" and stuff, but without fresh information there's not much to discuss. The other part is that this isn't getting huge amounts of media coverage compared to the other attacks.

EDIT: Meanwhile we get almost no news on Asia at all. Googling it, the top hit was that Taiwan legalized same-sex marriage, the first country in Asia to do so.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 25, 2017, 04:26:51 am
Also, you can't blame in on immigrants.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 25, 2017, 04:30:48 am
They're still immigrants, they came there in the 14 century.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Helgoland on May 25, 2017, 05:26:30 am
Try explaining that to a Mayflower descendant...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 25, 2017, 05:28:25 am
Deport all caucasian Americans back to the Netherlands and the UK.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on May 25, 2017, 05:53:10 am
The very name "Mayflower" is un-American. No good honest bear-wrestling all-American woodsman would be caught dead owning a boat called that.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 25, 2017, 07:11:45 am
At a bus terminal in Jakarta, Indonesia, two men blew themselves up using pressure cooker bombs filled with aluminum shrapnel. 5 people are dead, including the two attackers.
Their target appears to have been the patrolling police officers. Three of the dead are police officers. a further 6 police officers and 5 random pedestrians were injured.
Police assumes the attackers came from the Jemaah Anshorut Daulah group, which symphatizes with IS.
The attack was carried out in two parts. After the first man blew himself up, the second bomber hid and waited until police had come running to the scene, waiting for the best moment to strike.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Azzuro on May 25, 2017, 07:34:02 am
IS is stepping up their operations in this region, it seems. They are on the back foot in the Middle East, but their brand is still inspiring attacks worldwide.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 25, 2017, 09:41:39 am
The very name "Mayflower" is un-American. No good honest bear-wrestling all-American woodsman would be caught dead owning a boat called that.

Blame the British for the name. Besides, the pilgrims didn't even own the boat in the first place.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on May 26, 2017, 03:02:42 am
It seems there's foreign fighters amongst the insurgents in Marawi. Spokesman for the Justice department, Jose Calida, in a pressconference today:
"What is happening in Mindanao is no longer considered an insurgence by Philippine citizens. It has turned into an invasion of foreign terrorists listening to the trumpets of IS".

Philippine troops are still trying to liberate the city, supported by armoured vehicles and helicopters equipped with rocket launchers.
Thousands of people have fled the violence. Fighting has killed at least 44 persons, of whom 31 terrorists, and 11 federal soldiers. There's no info at all on civilian casualties.

EDIT: perhaps Duterte is regretting now that he shoo'd the US forces off the island.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: wobbly on May 26, 2017, 04:38:27 am
IS is stepping up their operations in this region, it seems. They are on the back foot in the Middle East, but their brand is still inspiring attacks worldwide.

Worth keeping in mind, Indonesia actually had this exact problem before IS was even a thing
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Strife26 on May 26, 2017, 03:38:43 pm
It seems there's foreign fighters amongst the insurgents in Marawi. Spokesman for the Justice department, Jose Calida, in a pressconference today:
"What is happening in Mindanao is no longer considered an insurgence by Philippine citizens. It has turned into an invasion of foreign terrorists listening to the trumpets of IS".

Philippine troops are still trying to liberate the city, supported by armoured vehicles and helicopters equipped with rocket launchers.
Thousands of people have fled the violence. Fighting has killed at least 44 persons, of whom 31 terrorists, and 11 federal soldiers. There's no info at all on civilian casualties.

EDIT: perhaps Duterte is regretting now that he shoo'd the US forces off the island.

Whoopsie. Almost like ditching the Pax Americana is a mistake.

Hopefully they can clear the city without completely destroying it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Lagslayer on May 26, 2017, 05:25:06 pm
The more I read, the more awesome this Duterte guy sounds.

Crime in Phillippines is out of control.
Elected on his rabid anti-crime stance, especially when it comes to drugs.
Fucking slaughters these savage cartel fucks.
Currently in the process of tackling big banks and rich tax dodgers, while fighting off their terrorist puppets.
Consistently sticks it to the completely corrupt political system that surrounds him.

Only way he could be better is if he started offering free helicopter rides.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on May 26, 2017, 05:27:07 pm
The more I read, the more awesome this Duterte guy sounds.

Crime in Phillippines is out of control.
Elected on his rabid anti-crime stance, especially when it comes to drugs.
Fucking slaughters these savage cartel fucks.
Currently in the process of tackling big banks and rich tax dodgers, while fighting off their terrorist puppets.

Only way he could be better is if he started offering free helicopter rides.
I hope you being sarcastic. The man is responsible for thousands of deaths of which many were definitely not deserving of death. Mass murder is never the answer.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Lagslayer on May 26, 2017, 05:29:33 pm
murder
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

>drug cartels keep murdering people
>"You're not allowed to kill them! That's wrong!"

>unstable drug addicts keep supporting them
>"They're not criminals!"
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on May 26, 2017, 05:33:07 pm
murder
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
More like this:
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2017/04/10/blogs/photography-pulitzer-recognizes-aftermath-of-violence-in-the-philippines/s/10-lens-p-slide-RMSV.html
Warning contains many dead people.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Lagslayer on May 26, 2017, 05:36:35 pm
murder
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
More like this:
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/2017/04/10/blogs/photography-pulitzer-recognizes-aftermath-of-violence-in-the-philippines/s/10-lens-p-slide-RMSV.html
Warning contains many dead people.
Are you implying the police did the drive-by killings?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on May 26, 2017, 05:48:35 pm
murder
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

>drug cartels keep murdering people
>"You're not allowed to kill them! That's wrong!"

>unstable drug addicts keep supporting them
>"They're not criminals!"

When the police just up and kill somebody, criminal or, then yes, it is called murder.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Neonivek on May 26, 2017, 05:55:53 pm
There is kind of a reason why first world countries frown upon the idea of special government sanctioned hit squads against their own citizens and on their own soil.

I mean even China disbanded its secret police.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Lagslayer on May 26, 2017, 06:02:39 pm
When the police just up and kill somebody, criminal or, then yes, it is called murder.
Could you provide some specific examples, preferably as closely related to the immediate topic? The whole "just up and kill somebody" rhetoric is too politically charged for me to take at face value.

There is kind of a reason why first world countries frown upon the idea of special government sanctioned hit squads against their own citizens and on their own soil.

I mean even China disbanded its secret police.
How could you know if secret police have really been disbanded? The whole point is that you DON'T know about them.

And while the people may frown on such things, the governments of even first world countries have their hit squads. Surely you don't think Seth Rich was killed by some random mugger.

edit: I would also like to point out that Duterte's approval rating is still up around 80%.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on May 26, 2017, 06:44:52 pm
When the police just up and kill somebody, criminal or, then yes, it is called murder.
Could you provide some specific examples, preferably as closely related to the immediate topic? The whole "just up and kill somebody" rhetoric is too politically charged for me to take at face value.

I don't have a single clue how you've not heard anything about the police killings, given how often stuff comes out about them, but here you go:


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/02/philippines-police-plant-evidence-to-justify-killings-in-drug-war-says-report

http://www.dw.com/en/philippine-police-conducted-vigilante-killings-human-rights-watch-says/a-37777193

https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/03/01/license-kill/philippine-police-killings-dutertes-war-drugs

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-linked-to-killings-by-former-police-officer/

[/quote]

Quote
There is kind of a reason why first world countries frown upon the idea of special government sanctioned hit squads against their own citizens and on their own soil.

I mean even China disbanded its secret police.
How could you know if secret police have really been disbanded? The whole point is that you DON'T know about them.

And while the people may frown on such things, the governments of even first world countries have their hit squads. Surely you don't think Seth Rich was killed by some random mugger.

I find it very hard to take you seriously when you talk up a big game about sources and proof and then turn around and start pushing discredited conspiracy theories.

Quote
edit: I would also like to point out that Duterte's approval rating is still up around 80%.

Completely irrelevant. A well-liked murderer is still a murderer.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Lagslayer on May 26, 2017, 07:36:30 pm
Quote
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/02/philippines-police-plant-evidence-to-justify-killings-in-drug-war-says-report
The "reports" are nothing but hearsay.

Quote
http://www.dw.com/en/philippine-police-conducted-vigilante-killings-human-rights-watch-says/a-37777193
Again, nothing but hearsay.

Quote
https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/03/01/license-kill/philippine-police-killings-dutertes-war-drugs
"Our investigations say-" SHOW US THE EVIDENCE!

Quote
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/philippines-president-rodrigo-duterte-linked-to-killings-by-former-police-officer/
"Corrupt cop from a family of drug pushers is against the war on drugs" No shit?


Quote
discredited conspiracy theories
Discredited? Discredited by who? HOW was it discredited?


Quote
Completely irrelevant. A well-liked murderer is still a murderer.
I thought you valued democracy.


I'm sorry, Wolfy, but this whole anti-Duerte thing just looks like a crazy conspiracy theory.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 26, 2017, 07:42:07 pm
@lagslayer: How about YOU show YOUR evidence supporting what you're arguing.

Really though, this argument looks like it's about to spiral out of control because there's just no amount of arguing at conspiracy theorists that they're wrong.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Baffler on May 26, 2017, 07:52:40 pm
"Discredited."

I am in agreement though. If the courts really were failing to control the murderous smugglers, corruption, and Islamic terrorism, I can ken to the idea of going around the system. He wouldn't be the first. That, and it looks like despite empowering vigilantes and there being some shadiness with due process going on Duterte is actually solving the problem. He purged the police of corrupt officers and later did the same to the penitentiary, and by official reports (http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/09/12/1622959/drug-war-success-palace) (everyone else seems to avoid the issue) has greatly reduced both the supply and demand for narcotics. Better this than the Philippines becoming a Mexico-tier dumpster where criminal gangs have free rein over large parts of the country, and considering his approval rating it seems most Filipinos agree.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on May 26, 2017, 08:03:47 pm
Of course, there's no way that the same officials involved in planting evidence would ever falsify reports. ::)

I'm disappointed, Baffler. You seemed like you'd be better than to endorse state-sanctioned murder.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Lagslayer on May 26, 2017, 08:06:51 pm
Of course, there's no way that the same officials involved in planting evidence would ever falsify reports. ::)

I'm disappointed, Baffler. You seemed like you'd be better than to endorse state-sanctioned murder.
You dun fucked up, now.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on May 26, 2017, 08:10:14 pm
Of course, there's no way that the same officials involved in planting evidence would ever falsify reports. ::)

I'm disappointed, Baffler. You seemed like you'd be better than to endorse state-sanctioned murder.
You dun fucked up, now.

Your point?



Edit: Lagslayer's pretty obviously trolling and I'm starting to let my temper get the better of me, so I'm going to do the smart thing here and disengage. This isn't a hill I paticularly care to die on.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on May 26, 2017, 09:26:41 pm
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/world/asia/philippines-police-south-korean-killing.html

its almost like giving a bunch of people the power to go around killing anyone they please inevitably becomes super corrupt. whoda thunk it?

If you think all those people they murder are guilty your kidding yourself.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Azzuro on May 27, 2017, 01:31:27 am
I would just like to ask one question: Lagslayer, are you Pinoy and currently living in the Philippines?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on June 02, 2017, 07:55:35 am
Meanwhile in Marawi, government forces still have not been able to recapture the city, after nearly 9 days of battle.
Despite the use of heavy arms -the city has even been bombarded from the air-, the black IS flag still stands.
Amongst the insurgents aren't just Philippino insurgents, Chechens and Arabs have also been identified partaking in the battle.

Civilians have been exectued, and christians are reportedly being used as human shields.
Tens of thousands of inhabitants have fled the city.

Terrorism expert at  S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, Rohan Gunaratna says "As IS is losing more and more territory in Syria and Iraq, the organisation is spreading it's wings. One of the territories they see opportunities is south-east Asia, with the Philippines as center of gravity. Over the past few years we have seen a trend of small militant groups joining forces under the flag of IS. One of the very first people to swear allegiance to IS, when al Bagdadi proclaimed the foundation of the Caliphate, was Isnilon Hapilon (the IS leader whose attempted arrest triggered the current siege of Marawi). Last year he was appointed emir of south east Asia, by IS. Next to that, he has really close ties to Abu Sayyaf. He used to be a very important commander for that organisation. While formally, Abu Sayyaf has not yet sworn allegiance to IS, in practice, when Abu Sayyaf fighters get home, they turn on their telephones and watch IS videos".

In recent editions of Rumiya (a monthly magazine by IS published in multiple languages), actions of IS-fighters against the 'Philippino crusader army' were highlighted.
Last summer, a video was posted of heavily armed men on Mindanao. They formed a cricle, joined hands, and proclaimed allegiance to IS. A bit later, a Malaysian fighter calls upon the viewers to come to the Philippines, if they are unable to get to the Middle East. He then joins with two other fighters and decapitates 3 christians.

According to Gunaratna, the Phillipines have always been a hotspot for extremist. They came there to train mostly, but it seems that they have now really chosen Mindanao as the epicentre of battle in south east Asia. Their goal is to proclaim wilaya on the Philippines, making it a province of the Caliphate, as has happened in Libya and in Saudi Arabia. Achieving that would be a major victory for extremism

"At this point IS already controls some parts of Mindanao. The army needs to strike back fast. If IS can further expand it's territory, it will become ever harder to dismantle", Gunaratna continues, "and the Philippines cannot do that alone. But that is a sensitive issue. The West will not be very eager to assist Duterte, being horrified by the way he wages war on drugs."

http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/nu-is-terrein-verliest-in-syrie-en-irak-richt-het-zijn-vizier-op-zuidoost-azie~a4498683/
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on June 02, 2017, 08:30:11 am
I can see China stepping in here. The way they could get neighboring nations to turn a blind eye to the South China Sea stuff is by creating a Pax China arrangement that benefits those other nations.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Azzuro on June 02, 2017, 08:32:19 am
In other Phillippines-related news, an attack on a casino-hotel in Manila that left 37 people dead was identified as a botched robbery, not an IS terror attack as originally suspected:

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/philippine-police-say-manila-casino-gunman-killed-rule-out-terrorism
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/dozens-dead-after-gunman-torches-resorts-world-manila-casino-8905730

Also, I don't think the West, or at least the US, will hesitate to help Duterte against the IS threat, despite his war on drugs. They can't afford for IS to resurrect itself in Southeast Asia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on June 02, 2017, 08:51:10 am
I can see China stepping in here. The way they could get neighboring nations to turn a blind eye to the South China Sea stuff is by creating a Pax China arrangement that benefits those other nations.

I don't think China would pay attention to it until they got directly attacked. They're big on not messing with other countries domestic affairs. Having China get involved in the Philippines would make Congress want Trump to get into action.

Also, Trump wouldn't hesitate to help the Philippines with the problem as he doesn't care about human rights.

In other Phillippines-related news, an attack on a casino-hotel in Manila that left 37 people dead was identified as a botched robbery, not an IS terror attack as originally suspected:

http://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/philippine-police-say-manila-casino-gunman-killed-rule-out-terrorism
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/dozens-dead-after-gunman-torches-resorts-world-manila-casino-8905730

Yeah, it was just a really, really, daring robbery (they didn't even try to kill anybody, for one) attempt which initially nobody died as a result of. Then this.

Ever the scavenging opportunists that they are, ISIS claimed it as being their doing, despite no evidence otherwise (http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/02/asia/manila-philippines-resort-world-isis/index.html). I think Trump did them a favor by jumping the gun and calling it a terror attack.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on June 02, 2017, 09:30:38 am
I can see China stepping in here. The way they could get neighboring nations to turn a blind eye to the South China Sea stuff is by creating a Pax China arrangement that benefits those other nations.

I don't think China would pay attention to it until they got directly attacked. They're big on not messing with other countries domestic affairs. Having China get involved in the Philippines would make Congress want Trump to get into action.

Also, Trump wouldn't hesitate to help the Philippines with the problem as he doesn't care about human rights.

Well, if the Philippines invite China in it's different.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on June 02, 2017, 09:38:04 am
I can see China stepping in here. The way they could get neighboring nations to turn a blind eye to the South China Sea stuff is by creating a Pax China arrangement that benefits those other nations.

I don't think China would pay attention to it until they got directly attacked. They're big on not messing with other countries domestic affairs. Having China get involved in the Philippines would make Congress want Trump to get into action.

Also, Trump wouldn't hesitate to help the Philippines with the problem as he doesn't care about human rights.

Well, if the Philippines invite China in it's different.

I can still see congress freaking out over it though, given that the Philippines are supposed to be OUR ally, not Chinas.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Frumple on June 02, 2017, 10:12:08 am
Hey man, people can be allies with more than one political entity. Can even be a pretty good idea when a previous one has started to act in a way that could be uncharitably labeled "bugnuts".
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on June 10, 2017, 11:19:43 am
As the fighting in Marawi continues, and the city is still in the hands of IS, US elite forces have arrived to advise the Philippine army. According to the Philippine army, the US troops are not joining in any fighting, they are just there in an advisory role.

Despite Duterte's earlier demand that all US forces leave the Philippines, The US administration is worried enough about the rise of a new IS caliphate that they have decided to provide support after all.

Now all we need is some Russians, and we have all the ingredients ready for a new caliphate.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on July 15, 2017, 09:26:50 am
Indonesia fights back against China..... using nomeclature. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/15/asia/indonesia-south-china-sea-territorial-claims/?iid=ob_article_organicsidebar_expansion)

Yes really, they're fighting back by renaming the northern part of their EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) the North Natura Sea. With China saying 'Oh come on, this is ridiculous..."

Still, it's better than fighting back with bullets.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on July 28, 2017, 04:07:03 am
Not sure where news about Paksitan should go. I guess I'll put it in this thread.

The High Court in Pakistan has forced the Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif to resign, after the names of his family members were found in the Panama Papers.
In the parliamentary history of Pakistan, there has never been a PM yet that managed to sit out his full 5 year term. Sharif was getting close, he became PM in may 2013.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 28, 2017, 04:29:59 pm
China India clash over Bhutan (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/world/asia/dolam-plateau-china-india-bhutan.html)
My sides were launched into deep space watching Chinese news, they brought an Indian professor up to discuss the whole matter. The Indian professor brought up very reasonable points that the Chinese roads were not at all vital to Chinese defence and there was no Indian invasion of China being prepared, yet the military presence of China right next to a land corridor vital to keeping lines of communication with 45 million Indians was of vital interest to India. If the Chinese just stopped constructing those roads, withdrew, India would withdraw and peaceful relations would resume, as this was all entirely unnecessary. The host cut him off xD

They then started talking about how their humiliation in Vietnam required them to engage in more successful military conflicts in order to show that China is much stronger now, which doesn't really bode well for the future of the states surrounding China
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on September 18, 2017, 12:38:40 am
Welp I found another one, Posting to watch.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 09, 2017, 10:07:13 am
This went relatively unreported last week, but Oxford has rescinded the honors (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-41481521) given to Aung San Suu Kyi, de facto ruler of Myanmar. The City of London is reportedly considering following suit.

The fall from grace has been depressing to watch. The Nobel Peace Prize winner (1991) fought for decades against the military junta in Burma, living under house arrest. Her party won overwhelmingly in the 1990 elections, but the vote was nullified by the military.

Fast forward to 2015, and the military this time abided by the results, allowing Suu Kyi's party to take control of the government, but had modified the constitution such that Aung San Suu Kyi herself would not be allowed to hold the Presidency. Kind of a dick move, but in the grander scheme of things, that's a pretty big win for democracy, right?

Weeeeeel.....the first signs of trouble were when Suu Kyi essentially stated, "Fuck those guys, I'm running the show regardless of what my title is."
And true to her word, although Htin Kyaw assumed the Presidency, it's been made clear that he has little independency or political capital of his own, and Suu Kyi makes all the decisions. Kyaw even created a new position of "State Counsellor" that functions akin to a Prime Minister, just for her. Not a terribly democratic way to run things.

The bigger problem has been in the last year or so, as the Rohingya (a Burmese ethnic minority who also happens to be Muslim) have been pouring across the borders into Bangladesh and Thailand, claiming that the military had been killing them and burning their villages to the ground. Independent observers and satellite imagery seem to confirm this. Despite Burmese law recognizing 135 different ethnic groups, the Rohingya are not among them (despite having a historical presence dating back to the 8th century and the precolonial kingdom of Arakan), and are denied Burmese citizenship. Indeed, the Burmese government has stopped using the term Rohingya and instead insists that they are Bengali illegal immigrants from Bangladesh.

To be fair, the Rohingya have suffered discrimination and occasional attacks for decades, though the attacks were usually unorganized and led by Buddhist monks (btw, if you're burning villages and attacking people as a Buddhist monk, UR DOIN IT WRONG). Now though, the attacks seem to be coming from the military and are far more organized.

And the civilian government led by 'Shadow President' Aung San Suu Kyi? Complete denial of any problem, and a total blind eye to what's going on.  :-[

There's a whole lot of people around the world now regretting all the laud and honors they bestowed on Suu Kyi the last couple of decades, as well as Southeast Asia-focused NGOs privately distraught that someone put forward as a leading campaigner for democracy and human rights in the region has turned her back on both so quickly.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on October 09, 2017, 01:22:35 pm
Has there ever been a precedent of a nobel prize being retracted?
If not, she makes a good candidate for being a first.

To give her some benefit of the doubt though, it is quite likely that the moment she speaks out against the Rohingya cleansing, she will be overhtrown by military coup and be killed. Myanmar is a democracy in name only, it's still the military junta pulling the strings in the majority of the country.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on October 09, 2017, 01:40:54 pm
Has there ever been a precedent of a nobel prize being retracted?

No, and it's not allowed according to the Nobel Foundation's bye-laws.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 09, 2017, 02:09:32 pm
Has there ever been a precedent of a nobel prize being retracted?
If not, she makes a good candidate for being a first.

To give her some benefit of the doubt though, it is quite likely that the moment she speaks out against the Rohingya cleansing, she will be overhtrown by military coup and be killed. Myanmar is a democracy in name only, it's still the military junta pulling the strings in the majority of the country.
That's a possibility, but the military had generally had a policy of neglect towards the Rohingya, not active persecution. They wouldn't get involved if the locals decided to burn a village, but they weren't burning them themselves. Which makes sense, they wanted order and to minimize outside criticism of their rule.

Moreover, her stated intent to rule Burma regardless of the Constitution was....not something you expected to see. It makes it seem like the last two decades have been all about getting her family back in power (her father was the founder of modern Burma, the Communist Party of Burma, a military leader in the anti-Japanese resistance and one of the leaders of the revolution against British rule).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 09, 2017, 05:29:25 pm
Quote
, if you're burning villages and attacking people as a Buddhist monk, UR DOIN IT WRONG
I dont know why people have this idealized version of Buddhism. It has its own share of fanatical nutcases, just like any of the others.   IIRC there are records of wars between momasteries for doctrinal differences
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 10, 2017, 09:14:06 am
Quote
, if you're burning villages and attacking people as a Buddhist monk, UR DOIN IT WRONG
I dont know why people have this idealized version of Buddhism. It has its own share of fanatical nutcases, just like any of the others.   IIRC there are records of wars between momasteries for doctrinal differences
I know (Ikko-Ikki, etc.). Just feels like they have even less theological justification than Christian monks to engage in genocide. If the world is illusion, why give a fuck what other people are doing if it's not harming others?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 10, 2017, 09:36:31 am
And doctrine can definitely be observed to make a difference in how fanatics act. You don't see any terrorist Jains, their fanatics only commit suicide by malnutrition. And there's a similar thing with Buddhists in the form of those self-mummifying monks.

A lot of the other "eastern" religions at least have the promotion of social order and hierarchy to fall back on, but Buddhism was founded specifically to get away from Hinduism's harsh legalism. All I can think of is that this is just plain sectarian.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 10, 2017, 09:38:22 am
Or ethnic strife masquerading as religious.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: SaberToothTiger on October 21, 2017, 11:40:06 am
ptw
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 24, 2017, 03:50:41 pm
So...this happened. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/24/asia/china-xi-jinping-thought/index.html)

I've been increasingly disquieted by Xi Jinping over the last couple of years. When he first assumed the office, conventional thought was that he was another relatively bland technocrat that would carry on in the tradition of Hu Jintao or Jiang Zemin.

The first surprise was a series of anti-corruption purges within the Communist Party itself. This cemented the idea of him as a reformer in the minds of many Chinese. But in hindsight, it begins to look like it may well have been "get rid of potential rivals and threats to my powerbase" purges.

There's also been an increasing willingness to flex China's military muscles (through display and moderate provocation, not outright hostility), and a tacit support of nationalist sentiment.

And in the last year or two, there's been a retreat from the pro-market policies of his predecessors, including intervention to stabilize the Shanghai stock market, and less favor shown to the SEZs (special economic zones -- the areas of mostly coastal China where free enterprise is allowed).

Now, this is not without some merit. Wealth disparity in China is an ever-growing problem, as is illegal internal migration (the liudong renkou) to the major cities. Putting the brakes on China's move towards capitalism isn't a bad idea. But Xi seems to be signalling that he not only wants to put on the brakes, but maybe throw it into reverse as well.

And most troubling is the way he seems to be positioning himself as a primarch rather than a "first among equals" oligarch, as Jiang and Hu (and to some extent, Deng Xiaoping) were.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 24, 2017, 04:19:03 pm
That's kind of the thing with unelected officials at the top of the political pyramid, someone is sooner or later going to want to consolidate power. Happened since before Caesar.

I saw another article saying that he has attained Mao-like power and the one you linked says that he could very well be 'emperor for life'.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 24, 2017, 04:26:48 pm
Well, they are elected, it's just by a relatively small electorate and only after everything has been arranged beforehand so that the vote is merely ceremonial. Not unlike a corporate Board of Directors.

And yeah, Xi seems to be setting the stage for holding on to his position for life, unlike his predecessors who had stepped aside after roughly 10 years each.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 24, 2017, 05:53:19 pm
There's also been an increasing willingness to flex China's military muscles (through display and moderate provocation, not outright hostility), and a tacit support of nationalist sentiment.
The Chinese People Liberation Army's Navy carried out exercises in the Baltics for the first time in Chinese history, well, the first time any Chinese naval vessel has really. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/19/royal-navy-scrambles-shadow-chinese-warships-english-channel/) Proper spicy :]
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on October 24, 2017, 07:43:55 pm
There's also been an increasing willingness to flex China's military muscles (through display and moderate provocation, not outright hostility), and a tacit support of nationalist sentiment.
The Chinese People Liberation Army's Navy carried out exercises in the Baltics for the first time in Chinese history, well, the first time any Chinese naval vessel has really. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/19/royal-navy-scrambles-shadow-chinese-warships-english-channel/) Proper spicy :]
The Baltics? That's interesting.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 25, 2017, 03:18:17 am
There's also been an increasing willingness to flex China's military muscles (through display and moderate provocation, not outright hostility), and a tacit support of nationalist sentiment.
The Chinese People Liberation Army's Navy carried out exercises in the Baltics for the first time in Chinese history, well, the first time any Chinese naval vessel has really. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/19/royal-navy-scrambles-shadow-chinese-warships-english-channel/) Proper spicy :]
The Baltics? That's interesting.
Though they're not ready for it, they want to give the image of China preparing for world power-projection
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 25, 2017, 02:45:56 pm
I can only imagine how many times they had to make port calls to refuel.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on October 25, 2017, 06:05:05 pm
On the topic of China, Xi Jinping is consolidating his position.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/world/asia/xi-jinping-china.html?_r=0
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 25, 2017, 06:23:39 pm
He just consolidated power, so, of course there's no designated successor yet. He can take as much time as he wants in deciding on a successor now that he is effectively emperor for life (or at least until he decides he is unable to carry on his duties).
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on October 25, 2017, 06:27:57 pm
On the topic of China, Xi Jinping is consolidating his position.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/world/asia/xi-jinping-china.html?_r=0
It's a bit scary that as the west shoots itself in the foot China gains ground. I would rather the alternative to dysfunctional neoliberal democracy is something that's not an authoritarian police state.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: nenjin on October 25, 2017, 08:02:50 pm
On the topic of China, Xi Jinping is consolidating his position.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/24/world/asia/xi-jinping-china.html?_r=0
It's a bit scary that as the west shoots itself in the foot China gains ground. I would rather the alternative to dysfunctional neoliberal democracy is something that's not an authoritarian police state.

Maybe that's the reason. With the US president making a buffoon of himself on a daily basis, what better time is there to consolidate your power when no one is likely to listen to him when he starts warning about China.

I mean he basically already beat that drum to death during the elections. So when he "blah blah blah China"'s some more, even if he's right, would anyone listen at this point?

Not saying Trump has some real insight; even a broken watch is right twice a day.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 25, 2017, 08:16:04 pm
Trump doesn't even have an articulated opinion on China. The whole of his feelings are "China is benefiting from trade with us and therefore there is more flesh we could extract out of the deal, we therefore must be getting the short end of the stick, GINA!" And secretly "maybe the guys will finally respect me if I pass a trade deal favorable to them".

He didn't even fucking understand you don't publicly talk about talking to the Taiwanese government. How much space even exists below that level of knowledge on Chinese geopolitics?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on October 25, 2017, 08:36:09 pm
Well this is what happens when the leader of the US doesn't even know what geopolitics are let alone complex theories of international relations.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 25, 2017, 09:10:29 pm
I suspect he knew something about it and decided to challenge the status quo, but had no idea why it was that way or how much of a problem it was, but China did the equivalent of a dragon breathing hot air down your neck and he quietly backed down.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on October 25, 2017, 10:23:22 pm
I'd say better to befriend the growing superpower than immediately cast yourself in opposition, as a target to be taken down to prove its own strength.
For the US in particular, however (given that we're talking Trump and broken clocks), that's essentially a non-starter unless they do a full-on withdrawal from East Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.  As the presently-extant superpower, they simply have their fingers in too many pies for China to really tolerate as an emerging superpower ready to carve out their own place in the sun, and they're going to be a target to prove one's strength unless they completely abdicate their status as superpower and withdraw not just to the Americas, but within their own borders.  After all, carving out your place in the sun all too often means you need to carve it out of someone else; it's not a moral judgment, but simply a matter of how things seem to often end up being in effect.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on October 25, 2017, 11:09:29 pm
Ah, but I didn't say direct opposition, nor did you in your original post.  I thought you meant any form of opposition, which could be direct or oblique, diplomatic or militant, or otherwise.  Any support to the claims of ASEAN nations in the South China Sea is an act of opposition to China, as is opposition to the DPRK.  The Seventh Fleet as it presently stands is a threat in being to China as well by its existence, and you can certainly expect Xi to have considered that when he called for a new plan to fully modernize the PLA by 2035 and make it capable of fighting worldwide by 2050; while an extension of long-standing trends, the PLA includes the PLAN, and fighting worldwide requires a blue-water navy appropriate to China's growing position abroad.  The mere existence of the US support for Taiwan is fully a thumbing of noses at Beijing's claims, and it seems to be one that they're increasingly unwilling to tolerate given the rather pointed remarks that very carefully did not mention the Democratic Progressive Party or its pro-independence positions.  Chinese conflicts with Japan over Diaoyu makes any support of Japan a oblique act of opposition to China in the matter due to those two nations being in opposition over the matter and neither side being willing to accept anything less than total victory. 

If you had, however, meant direct opposition and direct opposition only by your original post, then I'd have to suggest that oblique forms of opposition do exist.  Moreover, not all powers necessarily view opposition in the same way.  China, I'm also concerned, is creating opposition where it doesn't need to exist.  They, in the narrow-minded pride of young nations (and isn't it a hoot to call China "young"), have been very militant about their myriad border conflicts of late, which naturally drives nations together in opposition: India, Bhutan, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and amusingly, both Koreas (their position in the DPRK is maintained because they have nowhere else to turn).  If China were not so militant over the Paracels, Spratleys, McMahon Line, and Aksai Chin, they could actually make serious headway in developing a strong diplomatic position in Southeast and South Asia if their growing rapport with Laos, Burma/Myanmar, and in Africa are anything to judge by.  Unfortunately, their "surrender to us or go against us" policies are forcing many small nations into a position of direct opposition where they do not necessarily wish to be, and if the US happens to suggest that this may be a little unfair to them or that the Nine-Dash Line happens to be a travesty of international maritime law, that is itself another act of opposition to China. 

EDIT: Accidentally listed Malaysia twice where I meant Myanmar. >_<
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Descan on October 26, 2017, 06:12:50 pm
Trump doesn't even have an articulated opinion on China. The whole of his feelings are "China is benefiting from trade with us and therefore there is more flesh we could extract out of the deal, we therefore must be getting the short end of the stick, GINA!" And secretly "maybe the guys will finally respect me if I pass a trade deal favorable to them".

He didn't even fucking understand you don't publicly talk about talking to the Taiwanese government. How much space even exists below that level of knowledge on Chinese geopolitics?
I think it's just a few centimeters below that and "What's a Taiwan? Some kinda dumpling?" or even "What's a China? Some sort of drink?"
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 26, 2017, 07:08:24 pm
Well this is what happens when the leader of the US doesn't even know what geopolitics are let alone complex theories of international relations.
International relations is pretty simple tbh


Well, we'll see where China stands in the next 30 years. It's entirely possible that the US loses a great deal of ground to them and makes no real opposition, or that Xi doesn't properly resolve issues with his succession before his retirement and/or death (assuming he does retire after the usual 10 year period, which seems unlikely). As for my earlier post, I guess a better phrase would be "antagonistic" rather than "in opposition". Threatening trade wars, directly acknowledging Taiwan, and publicly considering labeling China a currency manipulator is definitely what I would consider antagonistic behavior.
Of China implodes. Advantage of authoritarian regime: Your leaders think in terms longer than democracies; Shortside: You are liable to implode if enough things go wrong at the same time
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 26, 2017, 08:33:28 pm
Not only is there a risk of China imploding, but there's a risk of geopolitical power in general losing zero-sum status if the climate and energy crisis gets bad enough. Too much collapse and that power bleeds out into the void instead of being claimed by other nations.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 26, 2017, 08:41:41 pm
Well this is what happens when the leader of the US doesn't even know what geopolitics are let alone complex theories of international relations.
International relations is pretty simple tbh

Not simple enough for Trump evidently.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on October 26, 2017, 09:04:10 pm
Yeah, China has tons of reasons domestically it could implode. Far more likely than external factors, tbh.
I gather that's why Xi is reasserting the control of the Party in Chinese society and trying to rein in the capitalism, because like every Chinese autocrat since Qin Shi Huangdi, his paramount concern is the preservation of order.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 26, 2017, 09:10:25 pm
Well, China is particularily vulnerable to food shortages due to population size, so, external factors like food supply instability due to climate change could exacerbate the domestic side.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 04:20:32 am
However that's mitigated by the sheer size of China and the fact that it spreads across so many climactic zones. e.g. total avaiable farm land is a big factor:

http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Agriculture/Agricultural-land/Sq.-km

In terms of cultivated plus arable land, China is the clear winner with 5.19 million sq. km available. The entire European Union only has 1.88 million sq. km capacity. So China isn't really supporting a higher amount of people per cultivated hectare than the EU is.

Just the amount of land that's producing food in China is larger than the entire EU itself. People don't really get a sense of how huge a place it really is, they only focus on the idea that it's "one country" with lots of people. e.g. they think of it as if Germany or somewhere had 1 billion people in it. It's not the same. China's land area is almost 2.5 times that of the entire EU. That's the thing, everyone talks about e.g. USA, Canada, Russia as being "big" nations with a lot of land. Nobody says that about China, despite it being larger than the entire USA, even including Alaska.

http://www.nationmaster.com/country-info/stats/Agriculture/Cereal-yield/Kg-per-hectare
And if you look at the stats here, China is trying to squeeze less production out per cultivated hectare than the UK, Germany, France, Belgium, Holland etc. So they have more leeway to ramp that up in case they lose some land. I'd say Europe has more to worry about. Right now Europe relies on imports to make up their diet, but if food security drops they might find they can't afford to do that any more.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 27, 2017, 05:06:11 am
>nobody says China is big
What the actual fuck
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 05:22:59 am
i've met a lot of people who didn't believe China is a large country. Less people who seem to realize it's large.

but then again, I live in a large country. So perhaps people in the UK are aware of the scale difference. I'm willing to be a lot of Americans don't think it's as big as it is.

Old maps that make Greenland look about the same size as Africa don't help, obviously:

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSUiuL_InIF8rKeOd-HGOvHqrnFTSj9oqTw8cCHJ90TrHAR0QGlmw)

I mean, on this map it makes just Alaska by itself look almost as big as China, Australia or Brazil, when in fact Alaska is only about 20% the size of those places.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 27, 2017, 05:49:19 am
i've met a lot of people who didn't believe China is a large country. Less people who seem to realize it's large.
o_O
I've never even thought to ask people how big they think China is yet now I hesitate

but then again, I live in a large country. So perhaps people in the UK are aware of the scale difference. I'm willing to be a lot of Americans don't think it's as big as it is.
I reckon UK might be helped cos they know Australia is fuckhueg despite how the maps downplay its size, and of those, a good number'll know China is substantially larger than Australia

Suppose this problem could be solved by giving kids globes/forcing them to play grand strategy games until they git gud

*EDIT
But yeah I get what you mean. Even the UK is full of people who are very apathetic of countries like China and Japan despite how powerful they are. I've met very well-educated people who should know better who think Japan is irrelevant and remark that it's funny how no one knows what the name of the Chinese Premier is, it's a little depressing tbh
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 06:40:03 am
A few years back a friend of a friend was saying how the Chinese can't invent anything, they can only imitate. Does that sound familiar? (think what people said about Japan a few decades earlier before they started inventing everything) Of course this guy was a total drughead without a job himself.

The current thing is that it's noted that China now produces many more research papers than America. but this has been written off by pundits too "well their papers aren't that good, dontchaknow. Not like good ol' white person papers! Numbers of papers isn't everything!"

The problem with that logic is about half the "papers" in America are now Gender Studies / postmodern / post-structural stuff overturning the concept of Truth etc etc. Or PhD theses on the Olsen Twins vs Miley Cyrus. Or attaching the word "feminism" as a pure buzzword to everything where it doesn't really fit as in "feminist glaciology". While China produces roughly zero% of that stuff. Yeah, numbers of papers aren't everything, just look how high the average paper quality is in the USA!
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on October 27, 2017, 07:41:45 am
A few years back a friend of a friend was saying how the Chinese can't invent anything, they can only imitate. Does that sound familiar? (think what people said about Japan a few decades earlier before they started inventing everything) Of course this guy was a total drughead without a job himself.

The current thing is that it's noted that China now produces many more research papers than America. but this has been written off by pundits too "well their papers aren't that good, dontchaknow. Not like good ol' white person papers! Numbers of papers isn't everything!"

The problem with that logic is about half the "papers" in America are now Gender Studies / postmodern / post-structural stuff overturning the concept of Truth etc etc. Or PhD theses on the Olsen Twins vs Miley Cyrus. Or attaching the word "feminism" as a pure buzzword to everything where it doesn't really fit as in "feminist glaciology". While China produces roughly zero% of that stuff. Yeah, numbers of papers aren't everything, just look how high the average paper quality is in the USA!

You're going to have to provide a source, litterally all discussion I've seen on the subject has been focusing only on STEM research.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 08:16:13 am
Well I can't quite find the articles I was reading before, but here's an article projecting that China would overtake USA in total science papers around 2013:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2011/mar/28/china-us-publisher-scientific-papers

This is the most recent relevant report I can find:
http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/PC-19-2017.pdf

Quote
China outperforms the European Union in terms of expenditure on research and
development as a share of its GDP, and already produces about the same number of scientific
publications, and more PhDs in natural sciences and engineering, than the United States.

See table 1, It shows that in 2013 China produced 18.2% of the world's science papers compared to 18.8% for America, with America growing at 7%pa and China growing at 18.9%pa over the preceding 10 years. Safe to say, that China moved passed America around 2014, which is in line with the projections from the Guardian article. It's also notable, and in line with what I said, that China is also disproportionately over-represented in some fields: somewhat in Physics, Computing, highly in Chemistry, and excessively in Engineering (34.8% of world papers). Basically China disproportionately invests in hard, physical sciences and engineering, which is in line with what I wrote above (though I was being a little sarcastic there).

One caveat is that Chinese papers aren't cited as often as American ones, and that's held up as a sign of quality. However, they're near-parity with how often the average Japanese research paper is cited. So it's possible that some combination of racism, language barriers, and the "appeal to authority" of citing a known American researcher all contribute to making it less appealing to cite a foreigner, especially a non-white foreigner. It's also likely that there's a bias in who is reading your papers due to those same reasons, and that would skew the citations.

There are other articles claiming China lags way behind on science papers compared to the USA. I'm not sure exactly how to line those up with this report. Those are usually the articles that are also attack-pieces saying that Chinese papers are no good however.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on October 27, 2017, 08:46:30 am
Yeah, and they look at STEM paper. I was more addressing your bizarre rant that US paper count are inflated by post-modernist look at Miley Cirys or whatever. It's also weird that you of all persons start blaming racism for America's higher citation number. The US simply has most of the best universities in the world, the best and brightest of the entire planet go there for PhD. Of course they'll have better papers, for now at least.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Dorsidwarf on October 27, 2017, 08:47:29 am
Are Chinese papers mostly written in Chinese or English? That might be a contribution to low citations from abroad?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 08:55:02 am
Quote from: Sheb
It's also weird that you of all persons start blaming racism

What's that supposed to mean? Maybe you're mixing me up with Loud Whispers or someone who spits the dummy when racism is blamed for something. I've never done that.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 27, 2017, 09:24:17 am
Not to dismiss your post, but what does any of that have to do with East/SouthEast Asian politics?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 09:25:24 am
I was responding because Sheb implied I was a racist.

And the only assumption I can think of that makes sense in that context would be that he's saying I'm a racist because I have criticized sjw people before. So I was pointing out that that sort of criticism doesn't in fact imply that I support the "opposite of an sjw" which would be e.g. a Klan member I guess.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on October 27, 2017, 09:28:50 am
I was responding because Sheb implied I was a racist.

Uh, certainly wasn't trying to imply that.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on October 27, 2017, 09:31:20 am
The phrase "you of all people" is not a good way to word things then.

e.g. "you of all people saved a dying kitten" literally means that you're surprised because they're the least-likely person on earth to help a dying animal.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 27, 2017, 11:47:49 am
Not to dismiss your post, but what does any of that have to do with East/SouthEast Asian politics?
Tbh I  was as surprised as you. I thought we were at war with Eastasia. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: A Thing on October 27, 2017, 06:50:50 pm
Not to dismiss your post, but what does any of that have to do with East/SouthEast Asian politics?
Tbh I  was as surprised as you. I thought we were at war with Eastasia.

No, we're at war with Eurasia. We have always been at war with Eurasia.

Also, PTW
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on October 27, 2017, 10:47:15 pm
Not only is there a risk of China imploding, but there's a risk of geopolitical power in general losing zero-sum status if the climate and energy crisis gets bad enough. Too much collapse and that power bleeds out into the void instead of being claimed by other nations.

And that's a good thing, right?   :P

(In terms of geopolitical power bleeding 'out into the void'.)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 27, 2017, 10:48:32 pm
As it indicates a destruction of civilization so severe that it stops existing...not really.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Mech#4 on October 27, 2017, 10:58:26 pm
The phrase "you of all people" is not a good way to word things then.

e.g. "you of all people saved a dying kitten" literally means that you're surprised because they're the least-likely person on earth to help a dying animal.

"You of all people" can also be in the sense of someone being held to a higher standard then everyone else. Such as "You of all people should recognise the quality of this coffee" implies the person has exceptional knowledge of coffees to base their opinion off. In this manner it is a compliment.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on October 27, 2017, 11:16:13 pm
As it indicates a destruction of civilization so severe that it stops existing...not really.

Wait.  Geopolitical power = Civilization?   Sounds like a right-wing conspiracy theory to me. 

Alternative is to understand power as power to rather than power over and then we're already in a non-zero sum game from the outset.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 28, 2017, 05:14:34 am
Wait.  Geopolitical power = Civilization?   Sounds like a right-wing conspiracy theory to me.

Alternative is to understand power as power to rather than power over and then we're already in a non-zero sum game from the outset.
Smh tbqh famalam no one knows what conspiracies even are, yes there is a right-wing operation to covertly uploads memes to your brain. No that's not what MSH is saying. Geopolitical Power and Civilization are not, as he says, interchangeable terms. He's saying that if the energy and climate crises grow too severe, then geopolitical power will stop being a zero-sum game. This will be because the various lands and waterways great powers contest one another to have control over, will be useless - it will cease to be a zero-sum game where instead of one power gaining at the expense of another, everything will be an expense to anyone. What this will indicate is that everything is completely fucked and instead of a zero-sum game, the great powers start playing a negative-sum game where everyone is fragged no matter what, and are fighting to see who is the least fragged.
So for example, if controlling the USA yielded no benefits to its controller, one could safely assume that the American civilization was bleeding sorely. What would be the use in controlling trading routes when there is no trade, in controlling populations when you can't sustain them, in controlling resources when you can't use them? Power bleeding into the void to human expense.

The alternative of understanding power as power is useful but inadequate, for the simple reason that power is when it comes to the contest of great powers is relative. Consider at the eve of the Napoleonic Wars, how the United Kingdom rose to dominate global affairs, controlling a fifth of the world and outnumbering its competitors at sea 2-1. Yet by the dawn of the Great War, the United States was burgeoning into an industrial Titan, the mess of petty German princedoms rapidly united into a centralized Imperial power, Japan was burgeoning into a brand new Industrial power on the world-stage and all of them expanding their spheres of influence into British influence, all the while the British still contended with the French and Russians, meant that British power in relative terms was much more contested. Of course by World War II this would be an even graver situation, and by the modern age despite the UK being more powerful in absolute terms than it had ever been, in relative terms it is much clearer that there is a gap between the top 3 and the top 12 (https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp). For this reason power is treated as a zero-sum game because one power's relative increase in strength is to the expense of another, much as how China and the USA both cannot share control over the Pacific Ocean. Whoever successfully contests the Pacific, will do so at the expense of their naval rival.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2017, 08:13:58 am
Well, the US and China can't share the Pacific universially, but it's big enough that China would probably be happy with us staying on our side of it. Not that we'd actually do so.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on October 28, 2017, 10:37:17 pm
Smh tbqh famalam no one knows what conspiracies even are, yes there is a right-wing operation to covertly uploads memes to your brain. No that's not what MSH is saying. Geopolitical Power and Civilization are not, as he says, interchangeable terms. He's saying that if the energy and climate crises grow too severe, then geopolitical power will stop being a zero-sum game. This will be because the various lands and waterways great powers contest one another to have control over, will be useless - it will cease to be a zero-sum game where instead of one power gaining at the expense of another, everything will be an expense to anyone. What this will indicate is that everything is completely fucked and instead of a zero-sum game, the great powers start playing a negative-sum game where everyone is fragged no matter what, and are fighting to see who is the least fragged.
So for example, if controlling the USA yielded no benefits to its controller, one could safely assume that the American civilization was bleeding sorely. What would be the use in controlling trading routes when there is no trade, in controlling populations when you can't sustain them, in controlling resources when you can't use them? Power bleeding into the void to human expense.

The alternative of understanding power as power is useful but inadequate, for the simple reason that power is when it comes to the contest of great powers is relative. Consider at the eve of the Napoleonic Wars, how the United Kingdom rose to dominate global affairs, controlling a fifth of the world and outnumbering its competitors at sea 2-1. Yet by the dawn of the Great War, the United States was burgeoning into an industrial Titan, the mess of petty German princedoms rapidly united into a centralized Imperial power, Japan was burgeoning into a brand new Industrial power on the world-stage and all of them expanding their spheres of influence into British influence, all the while the British still contended with the French and Russians, meant that British power in relative terms was much more contested. Of course by World War II this would be an even graver situation, and by the modern age despite the UK being more powerful in absolute terms than it had ever been, in relative terms it is much clearer that there is a gap between the top 3 and the top 12 (https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp). For this reason power is treated as a zero-sum game because one power's relative increase in strength is to the expense of another, much as how China and the USA both cannot share control over the Pacific Ocean. Whoever successfully contests the Pacific, will do so at the expense of their naval rival.

Yes, I was thinking that I should apologise (to all but especially to MSH) for the right wing conspiracy comment - vague and inflammatory; and I do.  What I really should have said is something more like "I'm surprised that you believe that geopolitics is a zero-sum game.

And I intended to post just that and leave it there. But the comment (dismissal by attempted sarcasm, or perhaps satire - where does that tactic come from?) by LW ("there is a right-wing operation to covertly uploads memes to your brain") explains precisely my motivation for making that comment, memes being more or less equivalent to ideas in this context.  And no great surprise that LW's following rubric quickly devolves into the clash of 'Great Powers' and sole bottom line criteria of "Military Force".  This totally forgets (erases might be better) the non-zero sum aspects of geopolitical power such as trade and diplomacy,  We could summarize it as turning Clausewitz on his head to say - 'Politics is the continuation of war by other means'. If we were talking about Geowar a zero-sum game might be more accurate, but even here the sheer absolute increase in destructive power (regardless of relative abilities) would lead us to say the Geowar is not a zero-sum game.

It makes no sense geopolitically (particuarly without an existing state of war but even then) to talk of any nation or group "controlling" the Baltic Sea.*  Geopolitically I believe that China has sent its ships there as an exercise of "face" and not of "force" because that is what they understand shoudl be done by a power of their status on the international stage, given the precedents set by predominantly America but also Russia, and more importantly for them not to do so would be unbecoming.  Translating that for those with strange memes uploaded to their brains is somewhat difficult, but is partially captured by the notion that China feels compelled to demonstrate that they are players of a certain significance on the international stage.  It is an act of theatre rather than belligerent force; but definitely geopolitics.


*  'Controlling' itself is a farcical replacement for the 'owning' that would, presumably but naively, be applied if it were a terrestrial (=land) region, but that in itself descends into farce in the case of disputed claims, etc. 
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 29, 2017, 12:23:31 am
Well, the US and China can't share the Pacific universially, but it's big enough that China would probably be happy with us staying on our side of it. Not that we'd actually do so.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
By expanding into the South China Sea, the Chinese government boosts their military and civilian presence in the South China Sea - possession is most of the law, UN rulings have done fuck all to stop China's continual consolidation of it, which of course is valuable in of itself - in addition to increasing Chinese control over maritime lines of communication in the South China Seas. Of additional note however is what goes on beneath the waves; with China's seven dash line expanding into a deep sea basin which would allow China's submarine fleet to dive deeper and have a much better chance of making it from Hainan out into the Pacific, from which they have a much better chance of reaching sea within range of the USA undetected.
Moreover, under Active Defence doctrine, the Chinese recognize that in order to have a credible defensive strategic posture they must have a viable offensive operational posture, as otherwise they can only stave defeat and not utterly defeat the enemy. Moreover, the first strike against China need not be a military one, only such a political or economic event as would force China into war, necessitating a first strike to deprive the enemy of initiative in key strategic areas. Thus, the USA growing lax and allowing China to entrench itself in the Pacific, will only find itself less and less capable of contesting a China that upon consolidating the South China Seas, Taiwan and the straits of Malacca, is more and more the prime source of influence in policy across East Asia & Southeast Asia than the USA. Given the USA's reliance on regional partners for ports and joint operations, US allies switching Washington with Beijing would deal a devastating blow to US world power.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
In short, China is minimizing the avenues of attack the USA could use against it, whilst trying to maximize its own avenues against the USA.

Yes, I was thinking that I should apologise (to all but especially to MSH) for the right wing conspiracy comment - vague and inflammatory; and I do.  What I really should have said is something more like "I'm surprised that you believe that geopolitics is a zero-sum game."
No worries famalam

And I intended to post just that and leave it there. But the comment (dismissal by attempted sarcasm, or perhaps satire - where does that tactic come from?) by LW ("there is a right-wing operation to covertly uploads memes to your brain") explains precisely my motivation for making that comment, memes being more or less equivalent to ideas in this context.
I'd err on the side of more, as memes are pretty dank

And no great surprise that LW's following rubric quickly devolves into the clash of 'Great Powers' and sole bottom line criteria of "Military Force".  This totally forgets (erases might be better) the non-zero sum aspects of geopolitical power such as trade and diplomacy,  We could summarize it as turning Clausewitz on his head to say - 'Politics is the continuation of war by other means'. If we were talking about Geowar a zero-sum game might be more accurate, but even here the sheer absolute increase in destructive power (regardless of relative abilities) would lead us to say the Geowar is not a zero-sum game.
You misunderstand, for I speak from the perspective not of Germans, but of Anglospheres - for whom the concept of power has no distinction between military force, trade and diplomacy. The sole bottom line criteria of power is not military force, it is power. A powerful military controls the world's trade, and enacts the foreign policy of civil government in order to protect the state's economic interests abroad. This in turn ensures the economic security and prosperity of the state, which can then reap the economic benefits of such policy in order to modernize their military and so ensure their military power. The British Empire arose to dominance with minimal military presence, controlling a quarter of the world's population directly and indirectly influencing even more - simply through the integration of all these ideas as one. Thus the control of the Suez, the Gulf, the English Channel, the Straits of Hormuz, the Straits of Gibraltar, the Straits of Malacca and the Cape of Good Hope allowed the British to dominate world trade and consequently continue expanding their Navy with which to protect their commercial interests, and so continue the cycle. The USA inherited this strategy and took it to its natural conclusion: If they don't have a Naval Base in every ocean and sea outside of the Caspian, they've got an allied base's permission. Where the British Empire outnumbered its rivals at sea 2 to 1, the US Navy outnumbers its rivals at sea 20 to 1. Any nation which is blockaded by the US Navy is not trading with the world by sea, and as 90% of the world's trade is by sea or capable of being attacked by Marines, this can have dramatic effects for making foreign governments see eye to eye with Washington.
I conclude with a quaint quote from a Nepalese King, informing the British as to why he refused British merchants access into his Kingdom. The Merchants would arrive innocuously enough, but after the Merchant comes the Magistrate, after him the Missionary - and after him, the Bayonet. In this same manner the moment American businessmen started having investments abroad worth protecting, the US Armed Forces began their century of commitments abroad.

It makes no sense geopolitically (particuarly without an existing state of war but even then) to talk of any nation or group "controlling" the Baltic Sea.*
Denmark and Sweden were the first nations to actively seek and successfully control the Baltic Sea, enacting this as policy in the 1560s, a policy which would be eroded by Anglo-Dutch efforts to increase their economic share of Baltic trade at the expense of Nordic control by the 1650s. Today it's more complicated as the Baltic is held in a contest between the Joint Expeditionary Force and the Russian Baltic Fleet, all made more complicated by how both the JEF and RBF are underfunded and in trouble - no one is ready to make a contest for hegemony, sans the Swedish worry of the Russians borrowing Gotland.

Geopolitically I believe that China has sent its ships there as an exercise of "face" and not of "force" because that is what they understand shoudl be done by a power of their status on the international stage, given the precedents set by predominantly America but also Russia, and more importantly for them not to do so would be unbecoming.
China is not a cargo-cult nation, imitating the motions of the USA. They sent those 840 sailors across the world to indicate that the Sino-Russian alliance lives, and their cooperation will deepen. While Russia and China have severely limited joint-military capabilities within the same theatres, they are both capable of profiting from relieving defence pressures exerted by the USA. It's no surprise that when China pushes into the South China Sea, Putin annexes the Crimea, and China pushes further into the South China Sea e.t.c.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on October 29, 2017, 07:17:22 am
Given the USA's reliance on regional partners for ports and joint operations, US allies switching Washington with Beijing would deal a devastating blow to US world power.

A question of when, not if, over the longer duration.  America is falling, China is rising - a sheer matter of demographics.  Then India, then Brazil...  Entirely possible that a President dedicated to Making America Irrelevant Again or China a more monolithic state can speed or retard the process though.

Quote
I'd err on the side of more, as memes are pretty dank

I'd advise you to put that in your pipe and smoke it but it appears that you already have  :o

Quote
You misunderstand, for I speak from the perspective not of Germans, but of Anglospheres - for whom the concept of power has no distinction between military force, trade and diplomacy.

(Very tempted to flip you off with something like "Well let me know when you start speaking for yourself then" since it is your words that I am engaging with gubba.)

I think there is much greater continuity between the German and the Anglo traditions - here as elsewhere - than is generally admitted.  (Take Ratzel's notion of the merchant marine paying for itself which constituted a large part of his argument for increasing German naval force and reach.)  But in the end what is sought by this tradition is power over, the specific military force of containment or to damage an enemy or force them against their will.  Yes this military power can get 'cashed' as a trade deal or perhaps diplomatically in the signing of some document at gunpoint and of course there are flow on effects (...nice anecdote from the Nepalese King :) btw) but the predominant and ultimate level of discussion always comes back to strategic military engagement.  Reread your own last few posts and see how often the purely military domain is invoked as compared to the purely economic or purely diplomatic.  And there are other factors to geopolitics - the territory itself, culture, and demographics, just to name a few that should be uncontroversial.

It makes no sense geopolitically (particuarly without an existing state of war but even then) to talk of any nation or group "controlling" the Baltic Sea.*

[Denmark and Sweden were the first nations to actively seek and successfully control the Baltic Sea, enacting this as policy in the 1560s, a policy which would be eroded by Anglo-Dutch efforts to increase their economic share of Baltic trade at the expense of Nordic control by the 1650s.

Not according to my history:

Quote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominium_maris_baltici (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominium_maris_baltici)

The failure of the Scandinavian powers to take control of the Baltic, and steadfast refusal of other powers – local and international – to recognize their claims, is seen as one of the factors that led to the development of the "freedom of the seas" principle in international law.

Let's hope as much for the internet. :))

Quote
China is not a cargo-cult nation, imitating the motions of the USA. They sent those 840 sailors across the world to indicate that the Sino-Russian alliance lives, and their cooperation will deepen. While Russia and China have severely limited joint-military capabilities within the same theatres, they are both capable of profiting from relieving defence pressures exerted by the USA. It's no surprise that when China pushes into the South China Sea, Putin annexes the Crimea, and China pushes further into the South China Sea e.t.c.

You are missing the point, no doubt because it is a cultural one rather than a military one. (Flashback to Trump and Taiwan.) Of course there are elements of sino-soviet solidarity, and of course sending warships halfway around the world (figuratively) is a military exercise, but that's like saying the point of speaking is to make sound.

Anyway, I'm about done and have the best of intentions to leave the East Asian Politics thread to discussion of East Asian Politics.  (Although I have it on good advice that it's exactly the same as Eurasian Politics.;))
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 29, 2017, 11:04:02 am
A question of when, not if, over the longer duration.  America is falling, China is rising - a sheer matter of demographics.  Then India, then Brazil...  Entirely possible that a President dedicated to Making America Irrelevant Again or China a more monolithic state can speed or retard the process though.
That's a big fucking assumption lel. Demographics are important but you're neglecting the importance of actually making your people useful. In the 19th-20th century China's population and absolute wealth was far in excess of any European or Japanese nation, yet because most of its population was devoted to the maintenance of its population and most of its wealth consumed by its population - it was far less powerful than any of its near or far rivals. There are optimum limits for how large a nation's population can get before its size outstrips the country's infrastructure & wealth, so for example India you pick, has an absolutely nightmarish scenario where 12,000,000 jobs have to be created every year in order to meet all the new young people entering the labour pool. This is why despite India and China both accounting for 36% of the world's population, nearly even split between them, China is the more powerful of the two. China's industrial capacity far outstrips India, her education infrastructure & spending is superior, her workers more productive owing to a technological & education advantage, her military receives four times the funding of India's without putting any strain on her economy (being considerably larger than India's). India's heterogeneous population brings with it the additional costs of security issues from separatists and religious insurgencies, which its heavily decentralized democracy is much less capable of quelling compared to China's authoritarian state. Conversely a state like the USA with 300 million individuals maintains its preeminence owing to its great internal and external security, its strong rule of law, its high productivity of its workers, its abundant natural resources, its extremely well-developed infrastructure and educational institutions, energy security & financial security. Look at GDP per hour worked (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_hour_worked) and compare the US to India; more productive citizens produce more wealth, and a greater number of citizens at lower productivity cannot match the economic output of a hyper-productive individual, as simply increasing the number of citizens also increases the amount of resources they require. No nation, however rich in natural resources and money to make made-up jobs, has an infinite supply.

Quote
I'd err on the side of more, as memes are pretty dank
I'd advise you to put that in your pipe and smoke it but it appears that you already have  :o
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
dude memes lmao

(Very tempted to flip you off with something like "Well let me know when you start speaking for yourself then" since it is your words that I am engaging with gubba.)
The temptation is misguided. With great patience I implore you to read my post, and not discount the sections where I talk of controlling land, waterways, trade routes, populations, resources, industrial capability and military power (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.msg7603644#msg7603644), for you have focused solely on military power. It is not my words you engaged with - rather, but a single word, that of the martial.

I think there is much greater continuity between the German and the Anglo traditions - here as elsewhere - than is generally admitted.  (Take Ratzel's notion of the merchant marine paying for itself which constituted a large part of his argument for increasing German naval force and reach.)
It would be impossible for the English tradition to have derived from German strategists such as Ratzel considering how the English tradition extends far back to the Merchant Navy, which predates the unification of Germany. What's more whereas German strategists argued that merchant marines were advantageous for a state to possess, British strategists argued that for a maritime nation such as itself, a strong Navy was not advantageous, but necessary for the guaranteeing of its security. Where the British tradition argued for control of global trade, development of finance and the preservation of continental balance, the German tradition argued for lebensraum, development of industry and the contesting of the balance of power - simultaneously constructing railroads in Turkey to contest Russia, expanding its army to contest France and expanding its Navy to contest Britain. Where the British tradition stemmed from its experiences at Trafalgar and its search for solutions to traditional British strategy having decreasing relevance in the 20th century, seeking to stop attempts at hegemony within Europe, the German tradition sought to attain hegemony over the world-island via land-based forces, and thus gain hegemony over its maritime rivals. Thus besides the superficial commonalities of the British and Germans both agreeing that ships are good, their approaches naturally diverged. Geopolitics vs Geopolitik

But in the end what is sought by this tradition is power over, the specific military force of containment or to damage an enemy or force them against their will.  Yes this military power can get 'cashed' as a trade deal or perhaps diplomatically in the signing of some document at gunpoint and of course there are flow on effects (...nice anecdote from the Nepalese King :) btw) but the predominant and ultimate level of discussion always comes back to strategic military engagement.  Reread your own last few posts and see how often the purely military domain is invoked as compared to the purely economic or purely diplomatic.  And there are other factors to geopolitics - the territory itself, culture, and demographics, just to name a few that should be uncontroversial.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
There is no such thing as a purely military domain, purely economic or purely diplomatic domain. All domains are in the support of the other;
A nation with a strong military can effect a strong foreign policy with which to secure markets, investments, resources and trade... This in turn causes the nation's economy to grow... Which in turn allows it to increase its military budget without burdening its economy... Which in turn allows it to maintain a strong military... A nation with a strong military can effect a strong foreign policy with which to secure markets, investments, resources and trade... You see how this goes on. It is the apex of power to be holistic in totality. To this end a strong military and successful strategic military engagements are not the predominant level of discussion, being instead but one facet which provides for the security and power of a nation - during Pax Britannica the British never engaged in a single serious maritime battle, and currently under Pax Americana there has never been a single serious maritime battle, for in all domains a contest of American power would see America victor. There is also a balance, for if a strong military was the predominant factor, then a strong military would consistently be key to success. Yet if a nation spent greatly on its military, creating the greatest military in the world - yet its military spending exceeded a depressing drain on public finances, then the long term effect would be to actually decrease the nation's power, as its military would be slowly killing its own state's economy and thus depriving itself of the future funds needed to modernize and keep pace with the progress of technology.

Not according to my history:
Quote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominium_maris_baltici (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominium_maris_baltici)
The failure of the Scandinavian powers to take control of the Baltic, and steadfast refusal of other powers – local and international – to recognize their claims, is seen as one of the factors that led to the development of the "freedom of the seas" principle in international law.
Quote
The Scandinavian (Nordic) powers, who sensed opportunity in the power vacuum created by the weak or non-existent naval power of the Holy Roman Empire and Poland-Lithuania, adopted expansionist policies which fostered conflict over the Baltic. Denmark and Sweden used their control of parts of the Baltic to fuel their militaries. Each claimed the Baltic as their own, and promised to protect foreign shipping. While the Nordic powers vied with one another over control, they both agreed that it should be the domain of one of them, not of an "outsider" like Poland or Russia. The Scandinavian powers tried to prevent the rise of their opposition through diplomatic treaties, which forbade other powers like Russia or Germany to build navies, and through military actions, whether targeting opponent naval forces, or through taking control of the Baltic ports. In one of the most notable actions to retain its monopoly over the Baltic, Denmark in 1637 destroyed, without declaration of war, the nascent Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Navy.
Did you even read the wikishit m9 it just repeats what I said.
Also I do love this example, because in it, the Swedish military - despite its impressive strength, outstripped its capabilities to fund it. The result was the decline cycle I just mentioned now

You are missing the point, no doubt because it is a cultural one rather than a military one. (Flashback to Trump and Taiwan.) Of course there are elements of sino-soviet solidarity, and of course sending warships halfway around the world (figuratively) is a military exercise, but that's like saying the point of speaking is to make sound.
There are not elements of Sino-Soviet solidarity, they are conducting joint military operations in the Baltics to indicate to NATO that the Chinese intend to uphold their commitments to the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship. It is worth noting the Chinese government and USSR didn't get along, shall we say, where the Chinese and Russian Federation do. All in all your last points on the Sino-Russian Baltic exercise cause me far more grief than the really should ;P
But to summarize:
1. You talk of missing the point, but have somehow managed to entirely ignore the military symbolism of military units engaging in joint military operations in a military theatre one of the militaries has heretofore never held any presence in, in order to honour a military alliance that is now 16 years old. The domestic & international cultural impacts of a nascent globally assertive China are important but it's a startling misinterpretation that deliberately overlooks this one simple thing.
2. We are in agreement that sending 3 frigates is not a meaningful force and only a symbolic token, yet we disagree in the meaning of this token; you suggest it is China imitating the USA because 'because that is what they understand shoudl be done by a power of their status on the international stage, given the precedents set by predominantly America but also Russia, and more importantly for them not to do so would be unbecoming' [sic], which I'm going to be frank is insultingly naive and puts the strategic planning of the PRC on the level of youtube commenters and ignores the bleedingly obvious point #1. It is more in line with those Reelya have brought up, who believe China is only a nation of imitators, and are incapable of working on their own initiative.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on December 22, 2017, 02:32:30 am
Your thoughts on this http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-42436818 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-42436818) madness right here?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on December 22, 2017, 03:22:13 am
Oh yeah, my indian labmate posted something about that. India can be very stupid sometime. At least no one was seriously hurt I guess...
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 22, 2017, 02:05:51 pm
Your thoughts on this http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-42436818 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-42436818) madness right here?
Hugging? Ban this sick filth. Almost as bad as hand holding.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on December 24, 2017, 05:37:14 am
Can someone explain to me whyt those responsible for running the police departments in malaysia appearently don't require even a U.S high school level of education? I ask since that seems like the only way a debacle like this : http://asiancorrespondent.com/2016/04/malaysia-probe-on-bizarre-kid-to-confirm-if-a-man-had-violated-goat-mother/#2pzUzSmTegRfdEDw.97 could happen.

I mean come on, two species have to be closley related to have hybrid offspring, because otherwise the embryos tend not to develop properly, I mean the most distantly related species i've ever heard of giving birth to hybrid offspring were sheep and goats, and even then rarely and with much difficulty, suffice it to say goatmens are not even remotely plausible by conventional(sexual) means.

This seems like a waste of police resources is what I am saying, or at least that angle is, now determining if the areas groundwater is contaminated with something capable of causing deformations might be a better idea.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 24, 2017, 06:05:26 am
Can someone explain to me whyt those responsible for running the police departments in malaysia appearently don't require even a U.S high school level of education?
They do, but the education system runs on a different curriculum. The police force prefers to hire ethnic Malays for political reasons, and ethnic Malays live in a different system to the rest of Malaysians. For this reason Malaysia is effectively both a secular, multicultural state and an Islamic state, because it runs a parallel system. You can see this in grocery stores where the signs will read "no alcohol for under 21s and Muslims." In the school curriculum the efforts to separate ethnic Malays from the other Malaysians start early, so where most subjects are taught in English, things like politics are taught in Malay and different curriculums can be expected based off of which community the school is located in. For ethnic Malays, the system is designed to steer excellent pupils towards revelation based theology & politics. This is why many books are banned when they are written in Malay, but their English translations are allowed to circulate in Malaysia - the government doesn't expect the ethnic Malay to read the English translations. So you get stuff where the Origin of Species by Charles Darwin is available in many bookstores in English, but Malay translations are banned. This creates a politically powerful, conscious and religious ethnic group, which places revelation above reason.

Quote
Charles Darwin’s famous book is not the only publication to suffer such a fate. One other example is Karen Armstrong’s Islam: A Short History, which is freely available at bookstores and university libraries in Malaysia, while Sepintas Sejarah Islam, the Malay translation, is also listed as a banned book.
In the last Parliamentary session, I submitted a question on The Origin of Species, enquiring why the Malay translation of the book is banned while the English version is allowed.
According to the written reply by the Home Minister (see attachments), the book is banned because it “endangers public harmony.” Explaining further, the Minister also states that the “translated book depicts a view of the origin and creation of species that goes against Islamic teachings and is in contravention of the Islamic Materials Censorship Guidelines as well as the beliefs of the Ahli Sunnah Wal Jamaah….”
Meanwhile, the English version is allowed because the Home Ministry has “not received any complaints regarding the existence of any infringements of Islamic aspects…” according to the very same guidelines by Jakim.
The explanation by the Home Minister not only makes absolutely no sense, it is also a veritable insult to the intelligence of Malaysians. How can the same book be considered a public danger and against Islamic teachings in one language, but perfectly acceptable in another?
Worse, is the Home Minister also effectively telling Malaysians that knowledge is reserved only for those who are English-literate? Is a Malaysian who can only speak and read in Malay considered not mature enough to make informed decisions? As most people who fall into the latter category are Malays, the question then arises whether there is a deliberate policy to keep Malays ignorant.
Ruling over your political class is easy when you decide how they think (http://www.malaysia-today.net/why-are-some-books-banned-in-malay-but-allowed-in-english/)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on December 24, 2017, 07:58:33 am
You know I countinue to be ashamed to be human whenever I read stuff of this caliber of malice. Thanks for keeping me up at night being thankful for being born in the U.S.A, I mean at least we dont essentially have parallel systems of governance for different people here............well at at least not anymore.

(for clarity I consider amerindian tribal governments fairly autonomous micro states, not parallel governments claiming to also be the United State)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on January 16, 2018, 12:23:44 pm
You know the false missile alert in Hawaii? Japan got hit with thier instance of it, and within days of the Hawaii one. (http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/16/asia/japan-false-missile-alarm-intl/index.html)

Unlike Hawaii, which took over a half hour to be corrected, this one got corrected within minutes.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on January 16, 2018, 01:07:31 pm
The fixes for the Hawaii problem were so basic and hard to understand why they didn't already exist, that it's pretty much impossible to lay blame on the guy who pushed the actual button.

The option to send the real alert was literally 1 pixel apart from the option to send the test alert, and it had to be pushed every time they change shift. So it literally could have come down to simply the mouse slipping when you click on the test option. Basically, with the real button directly over the fake button, you can say it was only a matter of time before someone accidentally clicked it.

On top of that, there was no confirmation screen, so merely clicking the button would send out the real alert, instantly. And there were no procedures in place for what would happen if you accidentally clicked it: there was no option to send any other message, e.g. there was no way to cancel the alert or tell people it's a false alarm.

Effectively, the system was so badly designed that any discipline against the worker who clicked the actual button is unwarranted. I'm guessing that whoever did build Japan's system didn't build it like the Hawaii one.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on January 16, 2018, 01:27:40 pm
The CNN article doesn't say how it happened, but the NYT article does (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/16/world/asia/japan-hawaii-alert.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fworld&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront). It certainly wasn't built the same way as Hawaii's, but someone still screwed up.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 16, 2018, 08:53:17 pm
You know the false missile alert in Hawaii? Japan got hit with thier instance of it, and within days of the Hawaii one. (http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/16/asia/japan-false-missile-alarm-intl/index.html)
Unlike Hawaii, which took over a half hour to be corrected, this one got corrected within minutes.
Hawaii needs to get gud
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on February 23, 2018, 03:48:35 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/23/588217754/photos-myanmar-apparently-razing-remains-of-rohingya-villages

No genocide here, move along.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on February 24, 2018, 08:44:41 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/02/23/588217754/photos-myanmar-apparently-razing-remains-of-rohingya-villages

No genocide here, move along.

Why isn' more of the world being tough on Myanmar when they pull shit like this? That is my main question.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on February 25, 2018, 12:51:48 am
Because the world generally aren't tough on countries when this sort of thing happens?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on February 25, 2018, 02:46:49 pm
Maybe after the fact.  You kinda need the media to help out, before people start caring.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 25, 2018, 09:21:52 pm
Why isn' more of the world being tough on Myanmar when they pull shit like this? That is my main question.
There are not many ways to be tough on Myanmar without causing a war which may be lost, and has a high probability of making everything worse. The situation in Burma is delicate. The authoritarian regime is strong but unstable and politically repressive, there are ongoing terrorist attacks in most states, with ongoing conflict in Kachin, Shan and Rakhine, in three individual separatist-state wars. This does not include all the lower scale conflicts on the borders of Burma and its neighbours in Bangladesh, Laos and China. The situation with other ethnic states remains volatile. The ability for foreign agents and journalists to act in Burma is severely curtailed. The Burmese mountains, forests and monsoon seasons are also some of the most formidable in the world, which means that even if the Chinese were not ambivalently keeping their eye on Burma, nations with great expeditionary capability like the USA might think twice about embarking upon an invasion which would make Vietnam seem pleasant by comparison. The international community's main hope came in the form of Aung San Syuu Kyi, who went from being a political prisoner to a great liberal proponent in an otherwise tightly controlled authoritarian regime. These hopes did not translate into any useful movement in Burma, as Aung San Syuu Kyi was elusive on the topic of the Rakhine cleansing.
The end result is inaction, because those that are not indifferent, do not capable options available. It is notable that even for all those who are knowledgeable of the Rakhine situation, they are not of the ethnic conflicts, terrorism, child soldiery that have pervaded this region since WWII and the partition of the Raj. Thus there is an element of Western media only selectively reporting when abuses align with its agenda, such as when Middle Eastern regimes transform from forces of stability into evil rogue states. In cynical terms, the West only cared when Burma started pumping oil to China (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-china-oil/beset-by-delays-myanmar-china-oil-pipeline-nears-start-up-idUSKBN16S0XF), bypassing US control of the straits of Malacca
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on March 11, 2018, 11:28:10 am
With 2958 votes in favour, and 2 votes against, the National People's Congress of China approved of Constitutional changes which make it possible for Xi to stay in power for the rest of his life, by scrapping the rule that limits a president to two terms (which was added to the Constitution to prevent a Mao from happening again), and also to enshrine Xi's personal vision into the Constitution, so it is now a crime against the Constitution to critisize his descisions.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 11, 2018, 11:30:29 am
With 2958 votes in favour, and 2 votes against, the National People's Congress of China approved of Constitutional changes which make it possible for Xi to stay in power for the rest of his life, by scrapping the rule that limits a president to two terms (which was added to the Constitution to prevent a Mao from happening again), and also to enshrine Xi's personal vision into the Constitution, so it is now a crime against the Constitution to critisize his descisions.
banter
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on March 11, 2018, 11:36:58 am
Pfft, they seriously went there with making it a crime to criticise his decisions? Does that apply to his advisors? If so, then that could mean that they can't critique his decisions.

This is exactly the kind of thing that they were trying to avoid after Mao.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 11, 2018, 11:52:42 am
Pfft, they seriously went there with making it a crime to criticise his decisions? Does that apply to his advisors? If so, then that could mean that they can't critique his decisions.

This is exactly the kind of thing that they were trying to avoid after Mao.
Yeah, it's pretty much a legal ratification of what has already become the case. Xi Jinping's anti-corruption drive also had the benefit (or some might say, intended purpose) of gutting all of his internal opposition, while he steadily assumed command of every branch of gov under the party, and consolidated his own position in the party. He steadily wiped out all internal factions, on the basis that taking power will result in legitimate authority later - and sure enough, there is no one to stop him assuming total control. He reminds me a bit of a more hardcore and communist Lee Kuan Yew, being an authoritarian leader who cracks down on civil liberty to make the nation stable & prosperous through the quelling of internal dissent and corruption - resulting in popular support.
I worry that Xi Jinping will not be as successful as Lee Kuan Yew, because China is a considerably larger country to govern, and without anyone to give him critical advise it is entirely possible for him to make enough bad decisions to royally fuck up China. His endorsement for continued aggressive expansion in the South China seas is also cause for anxiety, as he would only need to keep pressuring until the Americans elect one weak President to successfully contest for sovereign control of international waters. At least the belt and road initiative is some spicy meatball stuff everyone can look forward to
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on May 23, 2018, 04:43:19 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/23/613662601/rohingya-militants-massacred-hindus-amnesty-says-they-were-all-slaughtered

War makes monsters out of men. God damn it humanity. Stop being shitty to each other.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 23, 2018, 05:03:48 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/23/613662601/rohingya-militants-massacred-hindus-amnesty-says-they-were-all-slaughtered

War makes monsters out of men. God damn it humanity. Stop being shitty to each other.
That's so fucking metal

At least 53 people, most of them children, were told to convert or die. They chose death over disbelief

The children chose death

Fuck this world
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 23, 2018, 05:14:02 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/23/613662601/rohingya-militants-massacred-hindus-amnesty-says-they-were-all-slaughtered

War makes monsters out of men. God damn it humanity. Stop being shitty to each other.

Also really not helping the whole Rohingya crisis as Myanmar now has an actual crime to use against them.

Edit: wrong country.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Sheb on May 23, 2018, 05:16:03 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/23/613662601/rohingya-militants-massacred-hindus-amnesty-says-they-were-all-slaughtered

War makes monsters out of men. God damn it humanity. Stop being shitty to each other.

Also really not helping the whole Rohingya crisis as Thailand now has an actual crime to use against them.

You know the Rohingya are in Myanmar, not Thailand, right?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on May 23, 2018, 05:21:37 pm
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/05/23/613662601/rohingya-militants-massacred-hindus-amnesty-says-they-were-all-slaughtered

War makes monsters out of men. God damn it humanity. Stop being shitty to each other.

Also really not helping the whole Rohingya crisis as Thailand now has an actual crime to use against them.

You know the Rohingya are in Myanmar, not Thailand, right?

Whoops, meant Myanmar, couldn’t remember which one, or I could have just double checked the article.

Edit fixed now.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 23, 2018, 05:25:17 pm
Also really not helping the whole Rohingya crisis as Thailand now has an actual crime to use against them.
So are we also just going to ignore the whole Burmese police being murdered thing? I feel like it's unhelpful to ignore that before the Burmese crackdown, the jihadists were blowing up bridges, attacking police bases and army bases all in one day of coordinated strikes and burning down villages/surrounding villagers so they can't escape.

Quote
Myanmar denies that, saying its forces are fighting ruthless terrorists. For the government, the proof of the insurgents’ brutality is plain to see, lying in rows by the mass graves just outside the village of Ye Baw Kya.
“This is terrorism,” Minister for Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement, Win Myat Aye, who visited the site on Tuesday, told Reuters.
The ARSA has denied killing the Hindus saying they never kill civilians.
Exactly why Myanmar’s tiny Hindu minority in Rakhine state got caught up in the bloodshed is not clear, and different people have given different accounts at different times.
Some villagers have said the insurgents suspected Hindus of being on the side of the government and acting as government spies.
In late August, Reuters reporters in Bangladesh interviewed a group of Hindu women from the village who said their male loved ones were killed by Rakhine Buddhists.
However, three of the same women told Reuters this week that Muslims who brought them to Bangladesh had ordered them to say it was Buddhist vigilantes who had done the killing.
Western blockheads literally took the word of terrorists that they weren't slaughtering innocents in order to have a morally black and white situation that didn't exist (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-hindus/slaughtered-hindus-a-testament-to-brutality-of-myanmars-conflict-idUSKCN1C21M6)

I love that the BBC version of these events paints Amnesty International as making a controversial report for pointing out who actually massacred the village. Like how the fuck can the truth be controversial. It's like calling Al Qaeda mandems Freedom Fighters all over again
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: SaberToothTiger on May 24, 2018, 07:42:19 am
Who could expect that the West lives in a loveable bubble believing it's values are upheld by everyone in the world? Who could expect that said bubble would burst violently when confronted with reality? I mean, western style democracy and liberal capitalism solve all problems in the world, so clearly any situation that does not conform to said worldview is too complicated for us and needs to be simplyfied.

And yes, before anyone asks, I am an embittered and snarky cunt.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: redwallzyl on July 05, 2018, 01:56:09 pm
Looks like xenophobia is the same the world over.
https://www.npr.org/2018/07/04/625915526/anti-refugee-backlash-in-south-korea-targets-yemenis-fleeing-war-and-seeking-asy
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on January 26, 2019, 05:44:01 am
I've been reading some interesting stuff about the Chinese "social credit" system. I don't know all the ins and outs, but I know enough to say:

"every single article you've read about it is probably complete bullshit that doesn't in fact have a single thing to do with the social credit system".

And it's pretty easy to dissect. For example:

Quote
The Chinese government has developed a mobile app that tells users if they are near someone who is in debt. The app, called a "map of deadbeat debtors," flashes when the user is within 500 meters of a debtor and displays that person's exact location. TechSpot reports:

News of the app has caused quite a bit of controversy after it was originally reported by the state-run China Daily. It is an extension to China's existing "social credit" system which scores people based on how they act in public. The app is available through the WeChat platform which has become immensely popular in China. The government stated that "Deadbeat debtors in North China's Hebei province will find it more difficult to abscond as the Higher People's Court of Hebei on Monday introduced" the app. Once a user is alerted that they are close to a debtor, the user can then view their personal information. This will reveal their name, national ID number, and why they were added to the debtor list. The debtor can then be publicly shamed or reported to the authorities if it is deemed that they are capable of repaying their debts.

Here's the actual article:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201901/16/WS5c3edfb8a3106c65c34e4d75.html

First:

Quote
The Chinese government has

No, it turns out this was concocted by a single provinces' court system. So, it's a local government thingy in only that province. And not "The" Chinese government. If the high court in California did something would you say "THE" American government has done such-and-such?

Quote
has developed a mobile app

Uh, turns out there is no actual mobile app that has been developed. It's a thingy you subscribe to on WeChat, which is like Chinese twitter. Maybe that's quibbling, but Twitter bots and the like aren't really much of an "app".

Quote
It is an extension to China's existing "social credit" system

Well, it's actually not anything to do with the "social credit" system, so it's not any sort of "extension" of that. This is about people who've actually defaulted on actual money loans.

Also note "the government stated", when in fact there has been no official statement about the program whatsoever. The stated text was just the body of the article on China Daily. At best, "reporter at the China Daily stated" such-and-such. Sure, we can move the goalposts and say anything written in The China Daily is "the government stated" but that's stretching the definition of an official statement a little.

Similarly:

https://www.gamesradar.com/minus-10-social-credits-600-million-gamers-face-punishment-for-their-hobby-as-life-imitates-a-black-mirror-episode/

Quote
Buying games could potentially lower your ‘social credit’ in China by 2020 if a new government scheme gains traction

Chinese gamers face direct ‘social penalties’, such as lack of access to Visa schemes and dating sites, as part of an upcoming surveillance program which rates citizens based on their economic and social behaviour. The Black Mirror style trial scheme discourages certain types of behaviour and can even penalise people for buying video games.


OK, where to start with this one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-34592186

First, these ideas were for a privately-owned social media site, and aren't part of any government designed program.

Second, they didn't say you'd be downrated for buying games (both companies and governments in China want people to buy stuff, duh), they said that if you played games for 10 hours a day that would look bad.

Third, it was just a random comment by some tech representative from the company, and they don't in fact have any technology in place that can tell whether you "gamed for 10 hours a day".

Fourth, they didn't say that anyone would be blocked from "dating sites", they said that your rating would affect your placement in search results in the one specific dating site affliated with their social media site. Standard algorithm stuff, duh. Tinder does the same

So, really rather than whatever Gamesradar is saying, the actual story is that "a single employee of a Chinese Facebook equivalent throws out a vague idea using non-existent tech and how it could affect you search ranking in their affiliated dating site. BTW, they expose the numerical rating the algorithm gives you". Basically, the western media took a vague hypothetical from some loose-lipped Elon Musk type in China and turned it into a story about how it's real tech that's coming next year (totally!) and it's going to be run by the government.

Additionally the Sesame Credit Score idea isn't really much different to Facebook algorithms, except Sesame at least tells you you're being rated and gives you some of the criteria. Which is ... a damn sight better than actual Facebook. That's the thing, as Orwellian as  the "Sesame Credit" scoring system sounds, it's actually the same as what Facebook does, but more transparent.


Additionally, a ton of other things that are supposedly something to do with the social credit system don't really have a whole lot to do with it. For example, there's mention of being blocked from expensive hotels, travel on the bullet train and first-class flight. but, if you look up those things, all of them were in fact rules for debt defaulters or senior executives of companies who had legal breaches against them. Basically, it's not a whole lot different to how American courts garnish your wages: in China if you're forced by the courts to pay back debts then they also require you to travel economy class. This, again, can be debated, but fundamentally doesn't have anything at all to do with the main story "social credit system", and it's not even something that would be especially out of whack if proposed in America. It's not that far off from normal bankruptcy conditions. Lumping this stuff in with the social credit stories is just clickbait.

I haven't touched on what the social credit system is actually about, if you drill down, but almost all the stuff mentioned has very little to do with it. The Chinese government doesn't really want to micro-manage peoples game purchases and the like, because the costs far outweigh the benefits.

In fact, if you look into it the Social Credit system seems to have a completely different purpose: to try and build up a "trust culture". Fraud and corruption are rampant, and the "social credit" system's original pitch was that it would cover 4 types of entities: (1) local governments, (2) private businesses, (3) judicial system and (4) individuals. It seems like every entity will be vetting the trustworthiness of every other type, and the actual core goal is to allow transactions without the absurd levels of distrust, fraud and corruption that exist at the moment. It seems more like a huge Yelp style system than anything else. The Chinese government seriously couldn't give a shit if you're playing a lot of MMOs, but they do give a shit about improving commerce and stamping out low-level corruption, and it makes a whole lot more sense that this is what they care about, rather than you bought too many video games, or where to place you on the search rankings for Chinese Tinder.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: sluissa on February 03, 2019, 09:20:44 pm
You can say the Chinese government doesn't give a shit if you're playing an MMO...

but they do seem to give a shit if men wear earrings (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/18/china-censors-earrings-of-male-stars-on-iqiyi-video-streaming-site).

Your arguments seem to ignore the fact that these things are rarely done for no reason and often are only part of a larger initiative.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on February 04, 2019, 05:50:49 am
That earring thing. If it was a government demand, then wouldn't all Chinese TV channels be doing it, and not just that one streaming site? You can infer from the article that there are a zillion other media outlets in China - including a bunch of state-owned channels - that aren't iQiyi where you can see the same actors / singers with earrings intact, and no sign of blanket earring-censorship. It's literally only one outlet doing it.

iQiyi claims that there's no official mandate on earring-censorship, and I believe them, because of the lack of evidence that any channel which isn't iQiyi has ever done the same thing. When other channels start having the same thing then I'd buy it that there's a central plan behind it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Kagus on February 11, 2019, 11:17:21 am
Maybe the earrings were just making offensive gestures at the time?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 11, 2019, 04:31:24 pm
I had not seen this thread pop up in a while. Does anybody know if we still at war with East Asia?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Kagus on February 11, 2019, 04:32:19 pm
I had not seen this thread pop up in a while. Does anybody know if we still at war with East Asia?
We have always been at war with East Asia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Culise on August 06, 2019, 01:00:36 am
We don't really have a South Asia thread, so I suppose it can be lumped in here: India is certainly east of something, after all.

The Indian BJP-led government has just repealed the autonomy statutes that govern Jammu and Kashmir and have occupied the state.  As preemptive measures in advance of the formal announcement, two former chief ministers have been placed under house arrest, Internet and media have been blacked out, and tens of thousands of Indian soldiers have been deployed to enforce martial law.  The announcement includes a reorganization of the political structure of the state to merge Jammu and Kashmir and separate Ladakh, which will become its own state with direct rule from Delhi.  Based on the stated reasons including easing restrictions to permit an "increase in investment in the region," we can expect a significant part of this to have to do with recolonizing the state: the autonomy statutes included restrictions on ownership of property in the region to permanent residents of the state, which was limited to those who had lived there for ten years, and slowed any increase in Hindu ownership in the Muslim-majority region.  I suspect it's unlikely we'll see a Fourth Kashmir War from Pakistan over this, but we'll likely see a sharp spike in the long-standing separatist movement in the region.  BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-49231619) and NYC (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/world/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-jammu.html) links. 

Somewhat surprised the Hong Kong news didn't make it in here, either.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on August 06, 2019, 02:32:12 am
I don't know if there are any Hong Kong forumites aside from myself on Bay 12, so it is not surprising for me that it hasn't appeared here yet.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on August 06, 2019, 04:17:36 am
Hello Hong Kong-forumite, I hope you're all right.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on August 06, 2019, 04:32:47 am
FWIW, I sympathize with the plight of Hong Kong natives. We have a lot of ex-pats here in kangaroo land from Hong Kong, some of which I consider good friends. They're here due to the writing on the wall with China and its authoritarian political system taking over their home. It's sad to see yet another protest for democracy fail, and I predict similar scenes in the future being reported in Taiwan sooner or later.

I just hope like hell that I never live to see the same images appear in my own country, although it's not beyond the realm of possibility I might.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Dorsidwarf on August 07, 2019, 05:09:57 pm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-49267912

Pakistan prepares to cut trade and expel the Indian ambassador over the Kashmir incident
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on August 08, 2019, 09:22:28 am
https://www.newsweek.com/china-pakistan-warn-india-border-1452896 (https://www.newsweek.com/china-pakistan-warn-india-border-1452896)

Another link, for those unfamiliar with the history of the region, the most militarized area of the globe.  The provided map is useful.  Seems India are completely isolated diplomatically on this, not that it counts for much at the moment.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Craftsdwarf boi on August 09, 2019, 08:17:32 am
I had not seen this thread pop up in a while. Does anybody know if we still at war with East Asia?
We have always been at war with East Asia.
YOU ARE SCARING ME WITH THE 1984 REFERENCES
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on August 15, 2019, 11:39:06 am
Hello Hong Kong-forumite, I hope you're all right.

FWIW, I sympathize with the plight of Hong Kong natives. We have a lot of ex-pats here in kangaroo land from Hong Kong, some of which I consider good friends. They're here due to the writing on the wall with China and its authoritarian political system taking over their home. It's sad to see yet another protest for democracy fail, and I predict similar scenes in the future being reported in Taiwan sooner or later.

I just hope like hell that I never live to see the same images appear in my own country, although it's not beyond the realm of possibility I might.

Thank you for your kind words. Fortunately for me I am staying rather safe, at least for now. I have to be careful not to wear the wrong colour of clothes (black for pro-democratic protesters, white is for pro-Beijing protesters or alleged triad members hired to attack people indiscriminately,) but as long as you stay out of trouble you should be fine. Pop-up protests have become a daily occurrence now, some of you may have heard protesters had a sit-in at the airport, though that one has been dispersed. Yesterday the Police was filmed firing tear gas grenades at literally nobody, which people made a joke out of because yesterday was also the "Chinese Halloween," so to speak, and the joke is that the police were seeing and firing at ghosts. If you would like, I can try to satisfy your curiosity on the situation here as much as I can, just ask away.

People are in general worried for their futures and personally, I fear either the PLA would come and/or the central government (ie Beijing) would strip Hong Kong of its special status without warning ala Kashmir. However, I don't think Beijing would send in the PLA unless Hong Kong literally threatened to secede, for the cost is simply too great. The fear is there, however, and both sides have been using it to stir up emotions and fear to fuel their agendas. Also, everyone is rather tense and would probe each other for their stance before talking.

But personally I think the situation at Hong Kong is but a symptom of the quality of life degradation we have been seeing since the handover, the proposed law amendment was just a trigger. Even if the government merely solved a quarter of the issues we have now in the past 20 years, I dare say less than half of the protesters now would have protested. Ever since '97 people here have been seeing ever-soaring rent and worsening job prospects, especially outside banking and finance (those were the ones responsible for pretty much HK's GDP growth while everything else withered.) The government has been for these two decades almost completely ignorant of the problems facing the average Joe and only served the interests of large conglomerates. The government sometimes joins in the action itself, for example, it is the majority shareholder of the Mass Transport Railways (MTR) corporation, which is almost the wealthiest in the place. Not only ticket prices rise every year, but the MTR has taken advantage of the high land price by using developing residential estates and shopping malls directly on top of its train stations. I am using old data, but IIRC Hong Kong has the highest crony capitalism index in the world, the highest Gini index in any developed region and a good chunk of the busiest real estate downtown has the highest rent on the planet. I suppose this speaks for itself just how messed up the situation was and just how much crap people have already endured silently before the protests flared up.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on August 15, 2019, 11:47:37 am
Accidental doublepost. How do I delete this?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on August 15, 2019, 03:46:41 pm
Not that it helps but its the truth, but if China does anything no one would do anything about it. You can do sanctions against china, but then self destruct your own economy and further ruin the economy of the western world, like trump is doing. And then it really would end up being a world wide depression/recession with many smaller nations probably just collapsing. The only ones who'd likely come out on top is US (but with big problems on way there), China and Russia (russia only cause china probably help them out since they are pretty much allies). And no one wants a war with china.

Feel bad for you guys though, cause china can literally do anything they want with little repercussions (as seen by their expansion of their ocean territory). But if anyone does anything to them like trump with his sanctions, then it destroys the economy. So literally nothing can be done in a way that only effects china. I wouldn't be surprised if they do just move in if the protests go on too long, its just sad no one is likely (or really able) to do anything about it. I sometimes talked about china, to my hong kong friends who felt same way. They came to california, but they always thought it felt like china wanted full control of hong kong and didn't like they had a democracy right inside "their" territory or a black sore of their regime.

But that was just their thoughts of course, but I did think the same. But that is coming from someone who just sometimes reads stuff from there and what china has been doing over there in that region in general, so I dunno all the internal stuff
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on August 15, 2019, 04:26:05 pm
If you would like, I can try to satisfy your curiosity on the situation here as much as I can, just ask away.

It might seem like an odd question, but I was wondering if any interesting (particularly humourous or politically incisive) graffitti has been appearing in the streets recently.  Would be most interesed in hearing about it if you see any, or is that something that would not happen in Hong Kong?

Keep safe, I do hope any violence passes you by.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on August 15, 2019, 06:00:27 pm
I'm wondering whether there's any overt signs that some of the protests have foreign political backing. I'd imagine many western political entities would relish the opportunity to stir up trouble in China's backyard, and my cynical side says that perhaps some of the protests aren't as spontaneous as they might seem.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: sluissa on August 16, 2019, 10:28:58 am
That's kind of interesting, Autohummer. The media over here tends to frame it as Beijing vs. Protesters. While the Hong Kong government kinda gets ignored. (Other than Carrie Lam.) Most of the attention gets put on the extradition law rather than a gradual buildup of resentment that led to this.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on August 16, 2019, 11:58:52 am
Not that it helps but its the truth, but if China does anything no one would do anything about it. You can do sanctions against china, but then self destruct your own economy and further ruin the economy of the western world, like trump is doing. And then it really would end up being a world wide depression/recession with many smaller nations probably just collapsing. The only ones who'd likely come out on top is US (but with big problems on way there), China and Russia (russia only cause china probably help them out since they are pretty much allies). And no one wants a war with china.

Feel bad for you guys though, cause china can literally do anything they want with little repercussions (as seen by their expansion of their ocean territory). But if anyone does anything to them like trump with his sanctions, then it destroys the economy. So literally nothing can be done in a way that only effects china. I wouldn't be surprised if they do just move in if the protests go on too long, its just sad no one is likely (or really able) to do anything about it. I sometimes talked about china, to my hong kong friends who felt same way. They came to california, but they always thought it felt like china wanted full control of hong kong and didn't like they had a democracy right inside "their" territory or a black sore of their regime.

But that was just their thoughts of course, but I did think the same. But that is coming from someone who just sometimes reads stuff from there and what china has been doing over there in that region in general, so I dunno all the internal stuff

I think pretty much everyone here knows we are meat on the chopboard, it's just that people react differently to this fact. Some pro-democracy people wish for foreign intervention, but outside of economic sanctions (which are already there as a result of the trade war) there is precisely nothing anyone can do if China decides to send in the tanks now. However, I do think China won't do that as it does care about international opinion, if only just a bit. It is known that the period after 1989 was amongst the most difficult time for China to operate internationally. Of course, it has now become a heck of a lot wealthier, but China has a massive productivity surplus and it needs its markets. Also, unlike at Tibet or in Xinjiang, Hong Kong has a much stronger international media presence. Anything that happens here will be made known (if serious/sensational enough) across the world. Also, compared to some of the semi-hidden unrest that has had happened inside China, the situation at Hong Kong is really not a big deal.

If you would like, I can try to satisfy your curiosity on the situation here as much as I can, just ask away.

It might seem like an odd question, but I was wondering if any interesting (particularly humourous or politically incisive) graffitti has been appearing in the streets recently.  Would be most interesed in hearing about it if you see any, or is that something that would not happen in Hong Kong?

Keep safe, I do hope any violence passes you by.

Most actual graffiti are pretty normal, saying things like "the police are dogs," "revolution of our time" or other words meant to cheer protesters on. However, some people online came up with this:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Explaining the joke, this is based on the warning signs the police use to warn protesters to back off before using weapons and force. Black ones say "Warning tear smoke," red ones say "Stop charging or we use force," orange ones say "disperse or we fire (less-lethal munitions, for now.)" Obviously there isn't a pink sign, but it was a parody based on the red one used by the police. "Spring pocket" is colloquial term for someone's testicles. Now, why is there ball-kissing? It is because someone mistyped a single word. The Chinese character for kick "踢" is very similar to the word for kiss "錫" and someone who meant to say "Stop charging or we kick your balls" ended up saying "Stop charging or we kiss your balls." The rest, as they say, is history.

I'm wondering whether there's any overt signs that some of the protests have foreign political backing. I'd imagine many western political entities would relish the opportunity to stir up trouble in China's backyard, and my cynical side says that perhaps some of the protests aren't as spontaneous as they might seem.

That is a common rhetoric used by the pro-Beijing camp and the government itself. However, from where I am seeing, the protests are typically ad-hoc affairs, organised through Telegram or on lihkg, which is kind of Hong Kong's 4chan. Several political parties and groups also organise their own protests, typically these are more peaceful. Of course it is perfectly possible that some foreign agency have pushed things along, but I think mostly it is the locals. On the other hand, the police has outright admitted having officers dressing up as protesters, allegedly to arrest people easier, but they may as well as agents provocateur for all we know. Also, people are pretty certain the pro-Beijing people hired the white-shirted attackers to hit people on 21/7, but nobody knows if this was organised by the government or just spontaneous action by pro-Beijing locals.

That's kind of interesting, Autohummer. The media over here tends to frame it as Beijing vs. Protesters. While the Hong Kong government kinda gets ignored. (Other than Carrie Lam.) Most of the attention gets put on the extradition law rather than a gradual buildup of resentment that led to this.

The HKSAR government got sidelined because all it has been doing is fanning the fire. At the very beginning, Carrie Lam could have elegantly and quietly withdrawn the amendment. End of story. However, she is, in my opinion, very uncompromising and very unapologetic, almost to a pathological degree. It Carrie Lam wanted something done, she'd staunchly get it done, popular opinion or political reality be damned. Before she became the Chief Executive (CE, HK's big cheese) this was a boon to her as she made an impression of someone who could get things done, and after the previous CE got laid off the central government picked her for the job (that was another story and another can of worms.) But her stubbornness meant that while she did say that the amendment was "dead," she staunchly avoided using the exact wording as demanded by the protesters, "withdraw," for some unfathomable reason. That, and the police defining one of the initial protests, where some protesters breached the Legislative Council Building, as a "riot" (which brings much heavier charges,) eventually got 2 million people on the streets. (I was one of them.) After that, the government more or less responded by being aloof, and made press conferences where officials say (rather stupid) things on air. Eventually, nobody listens to the HKSAR government anymore, as you can almost guess what they would say. Thus, the "main opponent," if you may, is the central Beijing government, which can control the HKSAR government much like how the Crown could the Colonial government, or the Japanese Empire the Occupation government.

The media here focuses more on police/protester violence and the protest situation more than anything else, since it does impact our daily lives, but the law? That is not really much mentioned, like Archduke Ferdinand after the first week of the Great War.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on August 16, 2019, 01:58:55 pm
Thank you for the joke and for it's explanation.  It brought smiles.

like Archduke Ferdinand after the first week of the Great War

That is an excellent analogy.  :)

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: sluissa on August 16, 2019, 02:17:55 pm
There was an interview done on NPR in the US that suggested that the extradition treaty would have been something that would have been worked out behind closed doors between Carrie Lam and Beijing before it ever became public, and that basically she has no choice at this point unless Beijing allows her to back off. Delaying the law would be about all she would have the power to do(and all she's offered) and reversing the plans are something that simply wouldn't be allowed.

Thank you though for your first hand opinion. It's something I don't get to hear much of outside of the biased media coverage that presents it either entirely pro-beijing or entirely anti-beijing. (I say it that way because nobody seem to really be pro-protesters, it's all about "The idea of democracy" rather than anyone's specific grievances.)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on August 16, 2019, 03:23:35 pm
Thank you for the joke and for it's explanation.  It brought smiles.

like Archduke Ferdinand after the first week of the Great War

That is an excellent analogy.  :)

No problem, it feels good to be able to spread the news and take in how the outside world is looking at this.


There was an interview done on NPR in the US that suggested that the extradition treaty would have been something that would have been worked out behind closed doors between Carrie Lam and Beijing before it ever became public, and that basically she has no choice at this point unless Beijing allows her to back off. Delaying the law would be about all she would have the power to do(and all she's offered) and reversing the plans are something that simply wouldn't be allowed.

Thank you though for your first hand opinion. It's something I don't get to hear much of outside of the biased media coverage that presents it either entirely pro-beijing or entirely anti-beijing. (I say it that way because nobody seem to really be pro-protesters, it's all about "The idea of democracy" rather than anyone's specific grievances.)

Initially I attributed Carrie Lam's stubbornness out of her own personality, but I have heard of that possibility as well. Right now I don't know what is happening at the top-level anymore and most of the stuff that floats around are pure speculation and rumours. Yesterday I had to calm my mother down as she went hysterical after reading in a less-than-reputable Taiwanese outlet that the central government will strip all Hong Kongers of their HK identity and make them Chinese citizens (thus stripping us of all rights, including the right to travel/flee). However, I highly doubt if Beijing would actually do that at this stage.

!!irresponsible speculation below!!
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on August 27, 2019, 10:20:54 am
EDIT: Gah! wrong thread. This and the Latin American Pol thread were right next to each other in the thread listing and I wasn't paying attention is how.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: sluissa on August 30, 2019, 08:28:06 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-exclusive/exclusive-amid-crisis-china-rejected-hong-kong-plan-to-appease-protesters-sources-idUSKCN1VK0H6 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-china-exclusive/exclusive-amid-crisis-china-rejected-hong-kong-plan-to-appease-protesters-sources-idUSKCN1VK0H6)

According to reputable news sites now, seems Lam really was under Beijing's thumb and didn't have any ability to negotiate or cede to demands.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on August 30, 2019, 05:33:07 pm
I mean, did anyone really doubt she was a puppet figurehead? I'm interested to see if the protests have enough fire in them to continue, or if it will all just die with a whisper. The opposite of passion is apathy.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on August 31, 2019, 01:18:06 pm
We've just have had a long day of protest with arrests being made as I type this. Initially there was going to be a protest organised by the Civil Human Rights Front, considered the most moderate of all protest organisers. Almost all protests led by the Civil Human Rights Front were violence-free and are typically the largest, including the million+ protests. This is because their moderation attracts those who don't want to risk life and limb, but still want to add pressure to the government. I have taken part in three of their protests up to this date.

However, despite their good reputation, their application for a new rally on 31/08 was declined by the police. The Civil Human Rights Front cancelled all plans for today in order to avoid more violence, but people are angry at this, and made up all sorts of reasons to go to the protest site and walk down the route regardless. My guess is that the PRC is pressuring the SAR government not to have another million+ protest.

Since this was going to be illegal, people have stepped up preparations, and some who are unwilling to break the law or sustain injuries may have stayed at home today. A few days ago a friend told me they would be a volunteer first-aider and told me to start calling in legal help and their relatives if they did not report in by midnight, fortunately, they are safe as of this time.

Today also saw the police using water cannons loaded with blue stuff that is reportedly an irritant, though I thought it was some kind of dye to mark people for arrest. Also, a police officer was caught dressed as a protester, and, upon being cornered by angry protesters, fired twice with his sidearm (pistol, live lethal ammo) into the air. I have a feeling that this is not what professional officers should be doing, as a falling bullet can still be lethal.

I mean, did anyone really doubt she was a puppet figurehead? I'm interested to see if the protests have enough fire in them to continue, or if it will all just die with a whisper. The opposite of passion is apathy.

This was how the Umbrella Movement died down, and people now are determined not to repeat the mistakes made back then. Easily-targeted leaders are replaced with ad-hoc groupings. Static occupations replaced with mobile guerrilla-style disruptions. People are also thinking of long term resistance and conserving strength and avoiding being arrested/hurt. Ironically, what the government has been doing is sending more and more moderates and neutrals into joining protests, by being uncommunicative, obstinate and uncompromising.

I thought we have already gotten used to protests and riot police in action every day, but perhaps soon, we will have to get used to warning shots with lethal ammo too. For me, it feels as if the government, either PRC of HKSAR, has been escalating the entire affair, even though they claim to be trying to quell it. I am no farseer, but I think it is pretty clear long before we hit this point that neither side was going to back down. If we keep escalating, I fear we will have to expect having violent deaths in a few months' time. (All deaths up to the time of this post's writing is from suicides or medical complications)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scourge728 on August 31, 2019, 06:15:36 pm
ptw
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on September 01, 2019, 12:36:45 am
Addendum: While the police has escalated with the use of water cannon and stormed MTR stations to make arrests and baton people (which are implicitly considered by most people here to be neutral zones,) some angrier protesters also threw Molotovs yesterday. With both sides using lethal weapons (though at this stage without deliberately targeting other people) it is getting increasingly unsafe out there. I can't see a way out of this unless one side relents (preferably the PRC/SAR government,) but neither side is showing any signs or backing off and I feel it is inevitable that violent deaths will occur.

What I fear is that the situation here may end up becoming something akin to the Troubles in Northern Ireland, especially if Beijing decided to send in the PLA. The pro-democratic part of the population might fight a guerrilla war against the pro-Beijing population and the police and very likely the PLA, while everyone else contend with no Internet, checkpoints, snipers and IEDs.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 02, 2019, 01:03:07 am
Yeah, violence is nasty for humans regardless of what side/part of a dispute they are on.  Avoiding it (as commonplace) is generally high up on the list of reasons for having a government in the first place.  Or at least a mark of some degree of culture...

Was personally amused to read that the (2?) watercannons that were deployed last weekend were still covered in graffiti from earlier protests.   :D
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on September 02, 2019, 05:58:24 am
Violence is a rational escalation of the rhetoric between the protesters and the state, when peaceful protest is prohibited.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on September 04, 2019, 12:55:27 pm
After three months, Carrie Lam finally announces that the extradition bill amendment will be withdrawn. However, she has refused to concede to the other 4 of the 5 demands from the protesters and the pan-democratic camp, namely:
#2 reverse the classification of the protest on 12 June as a riot,
#3 the release and acquittal of arrested protesters,
#4 the establishment of an independent committee to investigate police brutality, and
#5 that Carrie Lam must step down.

Carrie Lam also added that she would establish a "communicative platform" for her and senior officials to reach out to the population, in other words, put on a few shows with people on her camp or Beijing-aliened people and call it a day. She would also add two more people into the existing police watchdog, but staunchly refused to form an independent committee (according to leaked meeting transcripts, she promised the police that "not forming an independent committee" is the least she could do to protect the police.) Finally, she would take steps to improve prospects for local youth, which is something that has been said for years, but only said, never done, I doubt this time it would be any different.

I have no idea why the powers that be suddenly concedes after putting on a hardline attitude for so long. Had this decision been made three months earlier, this entire affair could have been adverted. Given that protests continued as usual after Carrie Lam's announcement, it is quite clear that this move satisfies practically nobody.

Right now police is considered the number one threat to any person walking on the streets. I myself had to minimise all unnecessary outings as not only isn't the MTR safe, but days ago the police have stopped a bus and searched everyone onboard for no reason, forced reporters to leave and allegedly mistreated the passengers being searched. On the plus side, I don't really have to care which colour I should wear anymore, as recent events have shown that you'd be beaten up and arrested by the police regardless as long as you look young and find yourself in the wrong place during a police operation. So far more than 1000 arrests have been made and I expect more to come.

People are saying that Carrie Lam plans to concede to give her grounds to introduce emergency powers. The idea is, now that she has conceded and made gestures to reconcile, if the protests continue, the government can justify passing emergency powers as the protesters would appear to be unwilling to answer the government's goodwill with goodwill, and the government then claim that force is the only way to end the conflict. Of course, given how dangerous the police is right now, I'd say we are already under a kind of curfew. Given what is going on, me and my family have begun checking options for fleeing Hong Kong, should the government decide to execute Order 66.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on September 04, 2019, 12:58:06 pm
Order 66? Is that a 1984 reference?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: wierd on September 04, 2019, 01:04:32 pm
Seriously...

What do they expect Lam to do?  She's a puppet figurehead at best.  A kept politician, that exists at the whim and whimsy of Beijing.

China has a very clear policy it keeps in regards to popular movements like this.  The people in HK need to review the footage of Tienanmen Square.  Lam has precisely ZERO power to oppose Beijing. The best protection they have against being turned into red stains under tank tracks, is to keep Lam around.

The best weapons they have are political intrigue, subversive message spreading, and anonymity.  Getting rid of Lam gets rid of item 1, which is what allows them to do item 2, and grants them at least some token measure of item 3.

Lam put the proposed law forward, because Beijing demanded it, and she knows she is a kept politician, that exists at the whim and whimsy of Beijing.

I am by no means a Party Sympathizer.  I just dont want to see the people of HK go from "living like sardines" to being "On the receiving end of Beijing's "concentrated and decisive attention." The shit that's gone on in the Himalayas to a certain ethnic group there should be an eye opener. Beijing is totally capable, and has demonstrated profound willingness, to do unspeakable things. These people are either extremely naive, or very very brave.  I am not sure which.

But demanding the removal of Lam, instead of trying to co-opt her, makes me suspect the former, rather than the latter.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on September 04, 2019, 01:58:52 pm
Seriously...

What do they expect Lam to do?  She's a puppet figurehead at best.  A kept politician, that exists at the whim and whimsy of Beijing.

China has a very clear policy it keeps in regards to popular movements like this.  The people in HK need to review the footage of Tienanmen Square.  Lam has precisely ZERO power to oppose Beijing. The best protection they have against being turned into red stains under tank tracks, is to keep Lam around.

The best weapons they have are political intrigue, subversive message spreading, and anonymity.  Getting rid of Lam gets rid of item 1, which is what allows them to do item 2, and grants them at least some token measure of item 3.

Lam put the proposed law forward, because Beijing demanded it, and she knows she is a kept politician, that exists at the whim and whimsy of Beijing.

I am by no means a Party Sympathizer.  I just dont want to see the people of HK go from "living like sardines" to being "On the receiving end of Beijing's "concentrated and decisive attention." The shit that's gone on in the Himalayas to a certain ethnic group there should be an eye opener. Beijing is totally capable, and has demonstrated profound willingness, to do unspeakable things. These people are either extremely naive, or very very brave.  I am not sure which.

But demanding the removal of Lam, instead of trying to co-opt her, makes me suspect the former, rather than the latter.

I have thought the same a month ago. But I think almost everyone here knows the real opponent is the PRC. I don't know who could feasibly replace Lam, nobody I know do. But it is clear someone has to take the fall and it was officially Lam who came up with the whole crisis, so making her go is a demand, not to mention that there isn't really a way to coopt her.

You may have heard of the phrase "if we burn you burn with us" from the Hunger Games, it has gotten quite popular here to express the current agenda of some of the more aggressive protesters, who actually want to push for an escalation to the point of lethal force. Their logic is, since Hong Kong is far too small and weak to do anything against the PRC (probably not even through subterfuge, as PRC's agents and surveillance are everywhere upstairs and have already extensively infiltrated here as well,) they absolutely need foreign intervention, preferable from the UK as it is partly responsible for Hong Kong's handover, (I don't think that would happen, but some do.) However, unless they force China to send in the tanks, and make sure that the rest of the world knows how nasty China is even in face of intense international scrutiny, Hong Kong would eventually be forgotten by the international community and China would be again free to do as it please. Also, if the situation in Hong Kong ends in blood, it is almost certain that any attempt by China to reunify Taiwan peacefully would be rejected. For this part of the protesters, "winning" is to throw as many wrenches into the PRC's plans as they could, no matter the cost. Why are they so suicidal? I suppose it has to do with living under extreme unfairness since birth and not seeing any faint hope for change. To them, things already can't get any worse. Even those who are more moderate tend to agree with them, as life has gotten worse since the handover, unless you happen to be amongst those bribed by PRC money to cooperate and even those are being increasingly crowded out and replaced by Chinese Chinese (pardon the wording). People do see Hong Kong as dying rapidly from the inside and this is now one final stand before the end.

The situation in the PRC itself is also more nuanced than it appears, at least, that is how the rumour goes. The PRC is not a monolithic power, but a tug-of-war between camps. Right now Xi's camp has power and intends to hold onto it forever, but the camp aligned with Jiang Zemin (The Chinese President from two terms back) is trying to remove Xi from power. One way they are alleged to do this is to make the situation in Hong Kong bad enough that Xi is forced to send in troops and thus take the fall for the bloodshed. This may weaken Xi's position enough to oust him.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on September 04, 2019, 02:02:04 pm
No wait, I just realized where order 66 is from, Star Wars.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on September 04, 2019, 02:07:41 pm
No wait, I just realized where order 66 is from, Star Wars.

I know we are just civvies, not Jedis, but I take Order 66 as the moment the already Sith-controlled Republic finally tore off the mask of being a nice government and reveals the Empire beneath for all to see, yet nobody could do much of thing without being shot up. Just an analogy.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on September 05, 2019, 05:20:49 pm
From my armchair, the view I see tends to show the protests as a symptom of a people that have known the taste of relative freedom and can see the path that their leaders intend to follow removing those freedoms.

Given another twenty years, the propaganda machine of the CCP will have had ample time to grind out the willingness of the common people to protest against their assigned lot.

I don't think we'll see any international action against China, even if the tanks start rolling down the streets of Hong Kong. At most there'll be talking heads spouting strongly worded rhetoric against the authoritarian response.

Everyone knows China is brutal against its own citizens if it finds them undesirable. So long as the rich still see a profit to be made in business with China, nobody plans to do anything about it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on September 29, 2019, 05:32:52 pm
Looks like China is committing genocide to their islam population with massive organ harvesting

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/are-they-sick-are-they-dead-what-really-happened-to-chinas-missing-uighur-people/news-story/f31a4e17177689f6c5d720d01d07df29

Everyone is sure not saying anything about it. Guess all the trade with china and so many businesses and economies rely on them, that china can do whatever and even middle east nations don't say anything. Some people have tried to put it out there and there is an occasional article (mostly by news au who brings it up the most), but almost the entire western media is mostly silent about it. None of the candidates have even spoken out against china, and in fact think punishing china with a trade war is bad when we should be punishing them for what they are doing. The only thing trump has done kinda right (in comparison to the other cr*p he has puked out. Its an extremely low bar) So not really right at all, but at least doing something. but for the entirely wrong reasons and the wrong method because that harms america more than it does china. Plus he doesn't care about muslims either anyway. No one seems to care about muslims. A bunch of in-closet bigots. Its very disappointing not a single candidate cares about what china is doing and mostly want good relations with them despite their genocide. Even people talking about the environment almost always leave china out of it, when they are the one of the worst polluters in the world.

Guess china can do whatever it wants and no one stands up to them or cares they are committing genocide and destroying the environment.

This post was a bit of a rant, but it makes me so mad when not one single candidate for 2020 has brought up anything about china and goes as far to dare say we need good relations with them despite their genocide. No other country or person brings up china's environmental pollution, almost none of the western media says anything about the genocide at all. There are the occasional articles, but it should be massive news. Even if its in china, it effects all muslims. Its a direct attack on islam, yet almost no one seems to care or punish china for it at all.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on September 30, 2019, 05:19:14 am
Yeah, substitute the words "Uighur Muslims" with "German Jews" and you get a great comparison.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Doomblade187 on September 30, 2019, 09:11:47 am
Sadly, the world community doesn't like to actually do anything about genocide usually, hence why they succeed so often.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on September 30, 2019, 09:15:44 am
All those people.  If you save them, they will be your responsibility.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on October 01, 2019, 02:42:32 pm
One of the things people sprayed on the Legislative Council when they broke in three months ago is that what the PRC is doing to the Uighur Muslims will not go unpunished. So, at lease some of the people here cares, I think.

Earlier today, a secondary 5 (equivalent to Grade 11 or Year 12) boy was shot by the police with live ammunition. It hit squarely at the chest and he is now in hospital. Doctors say the bullet was 3cm away from hitting his heart. The bullet has been extracted and he is currently staying in ICU.

There will be a reckoning. I don't know from which side or in what form, but now that someone has been shot with a lethal weapon, the protesters are not going to just let this slide. Meanwhile, even if the police as a whole try not to use lethal force, increased aggression from protesters mean that they will be forced to. From here on, the violence is just going to get worse and the emotions more explosive.

A few posts and months ago, police firing live rounds at the sky as warning was something that shocked people like me. Now it has become routine. Today, that escalates into actually aiming and shooting with intent to kill. Meanwhile, protests have stepped up. When this all began, molotovs existed only in rumours, now they are used in every confrontation. Two months ago there was no breaking and looting of shops. Today Chinese-funded or owned shops and store-chains are targeted for attacks, though protesters do call out for each other not to take away anything, who can really say for sure that everyone was so well self-disciplined?

With people on both sides getting more radical, it is increasingly dangerous to openly show your views. Being neutral is perhaps worst you can be, since that draws the ire of both sides. My mother and sister shout at my father every day because they think he is not pro democracy enough, thus he is pro-Beijing. Meanwhile his secondary school friends accuse him of being a traitor to Hong Kong and China because he wasn't shouting down pro-democracy protesters hard enough. Every friend group I know have split along political lines. I am fortunate enough to hold my personal friends together, but I fear if they would confront one another over their allegiance. A friend has already broken down over the stress of recent events but his coworkers keep on pressing him to follow it, resulting in angry outbursts. I guess this is how it felt in Northern Ireland back during the Troubles or Weimar Germany with Freikorps of all shapes and sizes wandering about.

For the record, if you asked me which side of this I am on, I am moderately pro-democracy, but in practice, I am one of the much-reviled neutrals. To begin, the PRC is clearly not a government built for the benefit of its people, to bow and become its subjects is a poor gamble at best. I think it is certainly better if Hong Kong has more political freedom and rights than it currently has, especially when given the fact that the government forced upon us by the PRC is corny, ignorant, apathetic and incompetent. However, I doubt if the people are able to host their own elections even in a fantasy scenario of the PRC suddenly withdrawing all its politicking from Hong Kong. A people so used to being obedient colonial subjects needs a lot of education to become responsible voters and, if the history of decolonisation in Africa is anything to go by, suddenly giving a population living undemocratic rule democracy is not going to end well. However, you won't find me joining any protests that isn't strictly legal, nor would I try to spread words and evangelise. I have my own personal reasons, which are very complicated and irrelevant to the current political situation, that has led me to hate Hong Kong very deeply long before even the Umbrella Movement, so now I don't feel very inclined to help any one side. People who know me for long understand this and leave me alone. I hope people who are more motivated but don't know me won't come across this post and try to doxx me or something. Even if they did, it probably isn't going to change my stance much.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on October 06, 2019, 01:58:11 pm
So, I hear the mainland is shipping in folks to help quell the protests.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on October 10, 2019, 04:13:47 pm
So, yeah, Blizzard did a thing after a pro-player expressed support for the protests in Hong Kong. A bunch of people are upset (count me in).

https://www.vox.com/2019/10/8/20904433/blizzard-hong-kong-hearthstone-blitzchung (https://www.vox.com/2019/10/8/20904433/blizzard-hong-kong-hearthstone-blitzchung)

Seemed relevant to post here, particularly after the NBA has also engaged in some shenanigans over the last couple of days.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: thompson on October 10, 2019, 05:46:28 pm
So, I hear the mainland is shipping in folks to help quell the protests.

China is in a real predicament here. Unlike Tibet and Muslims people in the West actually care about Hong Kong, and any police violence will receive widespread media coverage. It's hard to see China escalating to routine use of lethal force without serious sanctions being imposed.

On the other hand, the protests appear revolutionary in nature and well and truly beyond what can be handled with non-lethal force. So what do they do? Sit and wait is probably the smartest approach, which is mostly what they are doing. Hong Kong self-immolating doesn't really hurt the PRC so long as they don't get too directly involved. In my view, the PRC won't escalate this to the next level. Either the HK police do it, or some more radical elements of the protest movement arm themselves somehow and do it.

As for Blizzard, I feel a boycott is in order. I'd make a "Peninsula Defense" Starcraft map, but haven't  time. Some mix of Tower defense and DotA would be good. Originality doesn't really matter as it's just about giving Blizzard the finger.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on October 11, 2019, 08:39:34 am
I can see the PRC just waiting for the HK protesters doing something outlandish/'revolutionary' enough before they really come down with the hammer.

I have a feeling any sort of sports association just really wants their players to focus on the game, rather then bringing the dumpster fire that is 'politics' in.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on October 13, 2019, 03:10:15 am
So, I hear the mainland is shipping in folks to help quell the protests.

This rumour has been floating around since day 1. Some even claim the riot police have been reinforced with their counterparts from mainland, and mainlanders have dressed up as protesters and were responsible for ruining all the MTR stations last week.


So, yeah, Blizzard did a thing after a pro-player expressed support for the protests in Hong Kong. A bunch of people are upset (count me in).

https://www.vox.com/2019/10/8/20904433/blizzard-hong-kong-hearthstone-blitzchung (https://www.vox.com/2019/10/8/20904433/blizzard-hong-kong-hearthstone-blitzchung)

Seemed relevant to post here, particularly after the NBA has also engaged in some shenanigans over the last couple of days.

I haven't played a Blizzard game, but my friends have been refunding Warcraft 3 (or something like that) because of this.


So, I hear the mainland is shipping in folks to help quell the protests.

China is in a real predicament here. Unlike Tibet and Muslims people in the West actually care about Hong Kong, and any police violence will receive widespread media coverage. It's hard to see China escalating to routine use of lethal force without serious sanctions being imposed.

On the other hand, the protests appear revolutionary in nature and well and truly beyond what can be handled with non-lethal force. So what do they do? Sit and wait is probably the smartest approach, which is mostly what they are doing. Hong Kong self-immolating doesn't really hurt the PRC so long as they don't get too directly involved. In my view, the PRC won't escalate this to the next level. Either the HK police do it, or some more radical elements of the protest movement arm themselves somehow and do it.

As for Blizzard, I feel a boycott is in order. I'd make a "Peninsula Defense" Starcraft map, but haven't  time. Some mix of Tower defense and DotA would be good. Originality doesn't really matter as it's just about giving Blizzard the finger.

I can see the PRC just waiting for the HK protesters doing something outlandish/'revolutionary' enough before they really come down with the hammer.

I have a feeling any sort of sports association just really wants their players to focus on the game, rather then bringing the dumpster fire that is 'politics' in.

The latest round of protests came about with higher intensity because Carrie Lam used emergency powers to enact an anti-mask law. Somehow, Carrie Lam claims that although emergency powers have been used, there isn't actually an emergency in Hong Kong. The problem here is that she didn't have to do this if she just wanted to wait for the protests burn out. In fact, the protests have been kind of winding down just before she made that decision, so she more or less doused the fire with petrol for no discernible reason. People are saying that instead of waiting it out, the government/PRC is trying to escalate this to the point they can justify sending in armed police or the PLA from the mainland. Also, since emergency powers have been used, people are all trying to change their HKD into USD, as there is a possibility that the currency peg would collapse and/or capital controls would be introduced.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 03:38:10 pm
Well, not sure if this actually qualifies for east asia or not. It isn't really east asia to me, but maybe its considered it. To me its more central asia. In any case. This thread is closest.

But the amount of global warming and pollution must be skyrocketing because of this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-50280390

That is more pollution than europe and US combined if you take account other factors like trash and what not (india contributes a ton to ocean pollution, along with china), but for the smog... that is insane. If that isn't a massive contributer to climate change, then nothing is. That is worse than even Beijing (which was already really bad and contributing a lot to climate change), that is crazy. But also incredibly sad for there is going to be so many health problems there, long term health issues and what about all the animals and wildlife?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 03, 2019, 04:07:48 pm
If that isn't a massive contributer to climate change, then nothing is.
Only the CO2 component of smog contributes. The main harmful component - the particulate matter - reflects sunlight, slowing down greenhouse effect for as long as it stays in the air. The presence of smog does not mean that CO2 emissions are high, or vice versa.

That is more pollution than europe and US combined
How do you know this? The article provides no numbers to make any meaningful comparisons.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 04:19:40 pm
If that isn't a massive contributer to climate change, then nothing is.
Only the CO2 component of smog contributes. The main harmful component - the particulate matter - reflects sunlight, slowing down greenhouse effect for as long as it stays in the air. The presence of smog does not mean that CO2 emissions are high, or vice versa.

That is more pollution than europe and US combined
How do you know this? The article provides no numbers to make any meaningful comparisons.
For first one, it IS harmful. If it wasn't, then why would they give masks?

it even says in this other article its "dangerous smog".

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-india-50266463/delhi-choked-by-dangerous-smog

A lot of it is because of burning for farms, burning land and fires in general creates toxic chemicals in the air. That contributes to the pollution on earth. Though in the burning of land that is carbon dioxide, but that is a ton of carbon dioxide being created. Which then is a greenhouse environment effect

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zt6sfg8/revision/2

For second one. I took into account that is just one single city. India like china in general contributes a TON to ocean pollution and overall polution in the air. I'm about to go, but both in india and china there are some really polluted rivers that lead into the ocean.

But I'm guessing you didn't read the article I originally posted about the smog because you are a trump anti-climater

Because its right here in the article I originally posted

"What's caused the pollution?
A major factor behind the high pollution levels at this time of year is farmers in neighbouring states burning crop stubble to clear their fields."

Burning crops=carbon dioxide=greenhouse effect=contributes to climate change

I didn't think anti-climaters/trump supporters were allowed on the forum. Because otherwise its weird you are questioning BBC's own article about the dangerous smog which does have an effect on the overall environment on earth. You may not like it and choose to blindly ignore it, but what one single city does can effect the whole planet. How does one not believe that a city with so much dangerous smog not effect the whole planet in some way or another? What one does contributes to the environment. Throw trash out a window or not dealt with properly, one single cup or a single plastic starw effects the environment

Disgusting one thinks that climate change isn't a thing and that a city with so much pollution isn't contributing a lot to it, or at least a portion of adding more toxic chemicals to the atmosphere.

(edit: But maybe I misunderstood the post. Because it seemed like it was questioning BBCs own article where they even state a lot of it was burning for farm land. And burning does create carbon dioxide, which then has a greenhouse effect which is then part of climate change. If so sorry, its just I already was agitated when I had to deal with my grandma ranting how climate change isn't real and india's pollution is fake news, but that isn't true at all because it effects everything and there are even videos showing how bad it is. They even say its dangerous/toxic smog a lot from burning farms...so....how does that not effect the climate I have no idea how someone would ignore that. But maybe I misunderstood, plus not the best mood after my grandma ranting at me. Sorry if I came off aggressive and misunderstood.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 03, 2019, 04:24:25 pm
Calm down, take a step back, and read what I actually wrote instead of throwing wild accusations.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 04:34:14 pm
Calm down, take a step back, and read what I actually wrote instead of throwing wild accusations.

Well I did add this post-edit. I'll copy/paste.

(edit: But maybe I misunderstood the post. Because it seemed like it was questioning BBCs own article where they even state a lot of it was burning for farm land. And burning does create carbon dioxide, which then has a greenhouse effect which is then part of climate change. If so sorry, its just I already was agitated when I had to deal with my grandma ranting how climate change isn't real and india's pollution is fake news, but that isn't true at all because it effects everything and there are even videos showing how bad it is. They even say its dangerous/toxic smog a lot from burning farms...so....how does that not effect the climate I have no idea how someone would ignore that. But maybe I misunderstood, plus not the best mood after my grandma ranting at me. Sorry if I came off aggressive and misunderstood.

But its still weird you ignored the part in BBCs own article that a lot of it is for burning land for farms. Does that not create climate change for you and effect the climate? Carbon dioxide effects the climate, BBC even says so. And it says dangerous smog, which means its dangerous not just to humans but the very planet. What affects one city/area/region effects everything, because everything on earth is tied together in some way. Like if amazon rainforest gets destroyed, that will effect the entire planet. Not just that particular region.

As for more pollution than US/europe, well that one city has more smog than beijing which already has more dangerous smog than most cities in europe and US which doesn't really get that problem. Now imagine the entire nation not dealing with pollution, china/india combined at very least, definitely contribute more than any other nation. There needs to be something done to convince them to deal with their pollution and trash, but a lot of people don't seem to want to make china mad. Was disappointing china specifically was left out of countries being taxed, when they contribute a ton to pollution and the environment more than most nations. India isn't much better. At this rate, there'll be entire deadzones and no one does anything maybe because they don't want to make china angry. India though I'll concede seems to want to curb the pollution, but the smog shows there is a ton of work to do.

There is more to pollution and destroying earth than CO2, there are tons of chemicals, trash, carbon dioxide etc that also effect the earth.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 05:11:28 pm
Sorry if I came off aggressive. Re-reading it, it seems like you were mostly asking a question and not actually a question in a manner that would be against it. Though the amount of carbon dioxide to create that much smog (plus whatever other sources there are) must be a lot of fires burning. That does effect the whole earth.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 03, 2019, 05:19:19 pm
Let's go back to the point. You said "That is more pollution than Europe and US combined". Then Il Palazzo merely pointed out, you've apparently just made that fact up yourself, since the article doesn't contain that specific claim whatsoever. This particular claim and any link to global warming isn't contained in the article whatsoever.

~~~

Also a key point in the article is that the smog is due to farmers burning stubble from their fields. The CO2 from the stubble comes from plants pulling in atmospheric CO2, so this activity cannot by itself increase atmospheric CO2 above baseline. It's like saying that if you drink river water then piss in the river you're going to raise the water level of the river.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scourge728 on November 03, 2019, 05:21:19 pm
Let's go back to the point. You said "That is more pollution than Europe and US combined"

Then Il Palazzo merely pointed out, you've apparently just made that fact up yourself, since the article doesn't contain that specific claim whatsoever. This particular claim and any link to global warming isn't contained in the article whatsoever.

Also a key point in the article is that the smog is due to farmers burning stubble from their fields. The CO2 from the stubble comes from plants pulling in atmospheric CO2, so this activity cannot by itself increase atmospheric CO2 above baseline. It's like saying that if you drink river water then piss in the river you're going to raise the water level of the river.
except instead of the co2 being in the plants, it's in the air
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 03, 2019, 05:24:28 pm
Hopefully you're kidding there.

This is farmland that's been farmed for thousands of years and the plants are renewed every year. It's carbon-neutral year to year, since the CO2 was by definition sucked into the plants from the atmosphere in the previous year's crop.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 05:39:44 pm
Let's go back to the point. You said "That is more pollution than Europe and US combined"

Then Il Palazzo merely pointed out, you've apparently just made that fact up yourself, since the article doesn't contain that specific claim whatsoever. This particular claim and any link to global warming isn't contained in the article whatsoever.

Also a key point in the article is that the smog is due to farmers burning stubble from their fields. The CO2 from the stubble comes from plants pulling in atmospheric CO2, so this activity cannot by itself increase atmospheric CO2 above baseline. It's like saying that if you drink river water then piss in the river you're going to raise the water level of the river.

Ah I see. Well I know china supposedly is getting better, and india is trying to improve. And while US contributes according to USA today 200+ tons (which is a massive amount), other nations are producing more

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/science/2018/09/07/great-pacific-garbage-patch-where-did-all-trash-come/1133838002/

I find USA today pretty reliable, but opinions may vary I guess. I like them since they are heavily anti-republican, makes them believable for me. It doesn't say how much china or the top 6 polluted nations produce in ocean trash (which ocean trash effects the environment, maybe not the air itself, but it has an effect on earth), so if USA isn't in the top 6 that must be a lot of trash going into the ocean. But at least china is trying to change its ways according to the article. Though apparently india's problem is actually using too much water (some areas used up all their ground water) and other types of pollutants going into rivers, not so much trash like I thought so I was mistaken there sorry.

But some examples of India's rivers that I had in mind

https://abcnews.go.com/International/toxic-foam-pollutes-indias-sacred-yamuna-river/story?id=57995346

Thats pretty toxic looking.

And this article talks about ganges river

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-aad46fca-734a-45f9-8721-61404cc12a39

All that combined effects the environment. But going back to the US. While its in the top 10 most polluted nations for oceans trash, that is still not even in the top 3 or even 6 most polluted nations which is insane amount of trash if they are beating out US 200+ tons of trash a year. Wish the article had numbers for the top 6 nations.

And US doesn't have toxic smog problems as far as I know, I've never heard masks being needed because of smog. Fires yes, but not toxic/dangerous smog. the only places I've heard getting that is Beijing and now Delhi too which is even worse.

To me all those facts that all adds up that other nations contribute more than just europe and US. For me, it isn't just CO2 or whatever that effects earth but everything from even a single plastic straw. But still, never hear in europe about smog problems, and europe and lesser so US are both already a lot better than china as far as trash goes. But US is a ton worse than europe for that part, US trash is everywhere so I can definitely see why its in the top 10.

Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 05:40:50 pm
Hopefully you're kidding there.

This is farmland that's been farmed for thousands of years and the plants are renewed every year. It's carbon-neutral year to year, since the CO2 was by definition sucked into the plants from the atmosphere in the previous year's crop.

Then why has it suddenly become a massive health issue and government emergency if its been done for thousands of years?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 03, 2019, 06:13:14 pm
They've increase yield because of increased population.

However the burn-offs categorically do not cause global warming, due to it being stubble from the previous years harvest. i.e. it's by definition new growth only. The article itself says this keeps happening at this time of year:

Quote
A major factor behind the high pollution levels at this time of year is farmers in neighbouring states burning crop stubble to clear their fields.

Also

Quote
This creates a lethal cocktail of particulate matter, carbon dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and sulphur dioxide - all worsened by fireworks set off during the Hindu festival Diwali a week ago.

Clearly letting off a lot of fireworks at the same time that the nearby farmers are burning off stubble are bad for local air quality, but they categorically aren't necessarily linked to global warming.

Note that it specifically mentions sulfur dioxide, and fireworks also contain sulfur. Sulfur emissions reduce global warming. So these sorts of particulate emissions, while bad for humans near them don't necessarily have a net global warming effect.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 06:18:25 pm
They've increase yield because of increased population.

However the burn-offs categorically do not cause global warming, due to it being stubble from the previous years harvest. i.e. it's by definition new growth only. The article itself says this keeps happening at this time of year.

Exactly. As you said, the amount of farming increases due to increased population. While if it is just new growth only and mostly previous year's harvest, it still effects the climate because they keep increasing farms. And its not all just farms for wheat or other plants, but a lot of it are animal farms and they want green pastures. Which as Alexandria Ocasio pointed out pretty much with her getting rid of cows campaign. The farm animals in general greatly increases methane in the atmosphere.

Not just that, but to make room for farms often means tearing down trees and destroying the land to pave way for new farms. That is why so much destruction in the amazon rainforest, to make room for grazing and other types of farms. That contributes to climate change as well.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 03, 2019, 06:23:17 pm
Almost all of which has nothing to do with the article you cited. Which is the main point. You're just moving the goalposts constantly here.

now you want to talk about Amazonian rainforest clearing, as if that's somehow relevant to an article about yearly crop stubble burn-offs in India. One thing has nothing to do with the other.

Back to the point, you made a specific claim that the thing in India is "more than Europe and US combined". People only pointed out that you have no evidence for that. Rather than admit you have no evidence, you're now spewing random factoids as if that's evidence for the original, unrelated, argument you made that people have questioned.

EDIT ... as for the Europe/US point the key point there is that Europe and the US have used their wealth to off-shore their pollution, by effectively moving their polluting industries to poorer nations, often by greasing the palms of politician there, then blaming the poor nations for the pollution, most of which is caused by producing things needed by Europe and the US.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 06:28:16 pm
Almost all of which has nothing to do with the article you cited. Which is the main point. You're just moving the goalposts constantly here.

now you want to talk about Amazonian rainforest clearing, as if that's somehow relevant to an article about yearly crop stubble burn-offs in India. One thing has nothing to do with the other.

Okay I was thinking maybe I jumped to the conclussion about trump supporters here pretending to be left leaning, but now I know you are actually a trump supporter. Anyone who believes in climate change knows what happens in one area, effects the whole climate on earth. And the amazon rainforest was just an example of that. You said farming had nothing to do with it, so I pointed out did and now I outed you as a trump supporter. I will no longer argue with you, because trump supporters are trolls who are like arguing with a brick wall.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 03, 2019, 06:32:02 pm
What the hell man, you're nuts.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 03, 2019, 06:49:27 pm
Jesus, dude.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on November 03, 2019, 06:51:06 pm
Almost all of which has nothing to do with the article you cited. Which is the main point. You're just moving the goalposts constantly here.

now you want to talk about Amazonian rainforest clearing, as if that's somehow relevant to an article about yearly crop stubble burn-offs in India. One thing has nothing to do with the other.

Okay I was thinking maybe I jumped to the conclussion about trump supporters here pretending to be left leaning, but now I know you are actually a trump supporter. Anyone who believes in climate change knows what happens in one area, effects the whole climate on earth. And the amazon rainforest was just an example of that. You said farming had nothing to do with it, so I pointed out did and now I outed you as a trump supporter. I will no longer argue with you, because trump supporters are trolls who are like arguing with a brick wall.

Um, I think theres a severe misunderstanding here somewhere. Reelya only said that as events, they are independent of each other. Yes, they are part of a whole, but what's happening in the Amazon doesn't cause what's happening in India or vice versa.

I haven't read any data on whether the burnoffs in India farms are a net contributor to global warming, so, I can't respond to that, but they DO cause air pollution which is still a good incentive to do something about it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on November 03, 2019, 06:57:45 pm
I didn't think anti-climaters/trump supporters were allowed on the forum.

I don't think you've seen past climate discussions, there are plenty of skeptics around here. As for Trump supporters, they're allowed as long as they don't make a-holes of themselves. Not sure I can name one who has said that they are a trump supporter off the top of my head.

Theres plenty of conservatives around here, but if they support Trump, they don't make a scene about it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 06:58:24 pm
Almost all of which has nothing to do with the article you cited. Which is the main point. You're just moving the goalposts constantly here.

now you want to talk about Amazonian rainforest clearing, as if that's somehow relevant to an article about yearly crop stubble burn-offs in India. One thing has nothing to do with the other.

Okay I was thinking maybe I jumped to the conclussion about trump supporters here pretending to be left leaning, but now I know you are actually a trump supporter. Anyone who believes in climate change knows what happens in one area, effects the whole climate on earth. And the amazon rainforest was just an example of that. You said farming had nothing to do with it, so I pointed out did and now I outed you as a trump supporter. I will no longer argue with you, because trump supporters are trolls who are like arguing with a brick wall.

Um, I think theres a severe misunderstanding here somewhere. Reelya only said that as events, they are independent of each other. Yes, they are part of a whole, but what's happening in the Amazon doesn't cause what's happening in India or vice versa.

I haven't read any data on whether the burnoffs in India farms are a net contributor to global warming, so, I can't respond to that, but they DO cause air pollution which is still a good incentive to do something about it.

Maybe I misunderstood. And already pissed about what my grandma ranted me at didn't help, and she has tried calling me 8 times now to rant how I lie to her about climate change. So maybe I just need to get off after this post and cool down in the pool and relax.

But maybe my point wasn't really coming across. I do know the amazon rainforest doesn't directly effect somewhere in india. But the point of the example was, destroying land and increasing farming and increasing animal farms (which increases methane) DOES have an effect. Even if it doesn't, I do agree with the last point that it does cause obvious air pollution which is that bad it does need to do something about it. I think that is what annoys me the most in that people don't really care to focus on china or india too much, allowing air pollution to get that bad. Everyone just focuses on europe and united states, but there is never air pollution so bad it becomes beyond toxic levels (if its past 999, that is just insane).

I still fail to see how that doesn't effect the climate but maybe that is where I'm misunderstanding the most.

Sorry everyone for my anger, I shouldn't be posting stuff especially in topics I'm really passionate about when someone in real life has already pissed me off. I'm gonna get off and go swim in the pool.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 03, 2019, 07:02:45 pm
Land clearance has a one-off effect only, when the land is cleared. Increasing yields on existing farms (with i.e. fertilizers) would tend to have the opposite effect, since you're increasing the amount of CO2 those crops suck down. The point is, the yearly burn-off of stubble is of stubble that is only made of atmospheric carbon sequestered in the previous year. The next year, the same stubble grows back, pulling back in that amount of CO2. Hence, it's more of a local problem that the air is smoggy nearby, as a result, since there's no net emission of carbon past 1 year.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on November 03, 2019, 07:04:22 pm
@Trolldefender: Fair enough then. :)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Trolldefender99 on November 03, 2019, 07:09:10 pm
Before I leave, I want to apologize for my behavior. Really uncalled for, and I am incredibly sorry. I need to learn to be more calm and avoid forums in general when in a bad mood, but I am actually getting help for my anger but thats a whole nother thing and private. I am so sorry though, since one of the reasons I like this forum is how friendly it is and me coming along posting like that isn't very friendly.

Also, thanks Reelya for explaining. That makes sense actually, I misunderstood that part. But I understand what you mean now, so it isn't actually a global problem as much as a local problem.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: smjjames on November 03, 2019, 07:12:12 pm
No problem, we all have our off days.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on November 03, 2019, 11:17:44 pm
Since the topic came up I thought I would leave a link to some information on Soil Carbon Sequestration (particularly in relation to land-clearing/agriculture).  Some might find it interesting reading.  :)

http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-management/soil-carbon-sequestration/en/ (http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-management/soil-carbon-sequestration/en/)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on June 30, 2020, 07:07:57 am
Sorry for the necro, but this seems to be the most relevant thread I can find around here, except the absolutely terrified thread, at which I will crosspost this.

As of today, legalisation was passed in the place at which I live. It is rumoured to punish seditious action with 3 years to life imprisonment. Rumoured, because as of this time nobody, not even the local government, seems to know what the exact terms are. It could be literally anything.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 30, 2020, 07:56:00 am
Is this related to the HK legal crackdown?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on June 30, 2020, 08:16:02 am
Yes. The law passed this morning, but as of right now (2115 local time) there is still nothing on the exact terms, apart from rumours and that it will come to power the moment it is announced.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on June 30, 2020, 09:03:58 am
Meanwhile in China, birth control politics have been given new life in Xinjiang province.
Uyghur women are forcibly sterilized and/or forced to have a IUD inserted so they will not have children.
Ethnic Han-Chinese, on the other hand, are encouraged to have more children.
So yeah, genocide by sterilization. Uyghurs will cease to exist in a few decades when the last ones die of old age or go missing in re-education camps.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/gedwongen-sterilisatie-en-spiraaltjes-in-china-s-geboortebeleid-voor-oeigoeren-demografische-genocide~be2d1b29/
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: kaijyuu on June 30, 2020, 09:18:08 am
From what I've read, I encourage everyone in hong kong to emmigrate to the UK when that opens.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 30, 2020, 09:20:16 am
Or literally anywhere that's not controlled by the PRC
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on July 02, 2020, 08:17:47 am
The UK has offered British citizenship to 3 million Hongkong residents.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Doomblade187 on July 02, 2020, 08:40:13 am
The UK has offered British citizenship to 3 million Hongkong residents.
Taiwan is also helping out - opening an office for managing refugees.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 02, 2020, 03:23:10 pm
ptw
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 03, 2020, 02:06:01 pm
The UK has offered British citizenship to 3 million Hongkong residents.
A nice time where I wholeheartedly agree with Bojo & pals
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: kaijyuu on July 03, 2020, 02:07:49 pm
It's a "only nixon can go to china" thing. Bojo's so horrifically anti-immigration bigoted that he's got enough racist points for it to get passed.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 06, 2020, 06:59:35 am
It's a "only nixon can go to china" thing. Bojo's so horrifically anti-immigration bigoted that he's got enough racist points for it to get passed.
Is that like negative integer overflow nuclear gandhi?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Cyroth on July 06, 2020, 08:14:55 am
Something, something "his racism is backed by nuclear immigrants"?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Zangi on July 07, 2020, 08:37:41 am
One can twist it as HK folks being UK citizens all along, just gotta make it official.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: kaijyuu on July 07, 2020, 10:10:33 am
Is that like negative integer overflow nuclear gandhi?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_goes_to_China

Quote
As a political metaphor, it refers to the ability of a politician with an unassailable reputation among their supporters for representing and defending their values to take actions that would draw their criticism and even opposition if taken by someone without those credentials. Although the example is that of a hardliner taking steps toward peace with a traditional enemy, and this is the most common application of the metaphor, it could also be applied to a reputedly cautious diplomat defying expectations by taking military action, or a political leader reforming aspects of the political system of which they have been strong supporters.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on July 07, 2020, 10:49:18 am
One can twist it as HK folks being UK citizens all along, just gotta make it official.
It's sad though for those Hongkongese youngsters who weren't born under the crown.  I think the 3 million invited to british citizenship are only those Hongkongese people that are born before 1997, and those can indeed be argued to have been UK citizens from birth.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on July 28, 2020, 12:48:25 pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/china-illegal-fishing-fleet/

Here's a thing. Hundreds of North Korean fishing vessels have been running aground in Japan and South Korea, with their crews as skeletons or just missing. It was a mystery. Well, mystery solved, large numbers of Chinese fishing ships have been coming into North Korean waters for illegal fishing and they've been murdering the crews of the North Korean ships.

And the China government definitely knows about this, the number of ships involve makes up no less than a third of their entire deep sea fishing fleet.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on July 29, 2020, 01:53:56 am
https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/china-illegal-fishing-fleet/

Here's a thing. Hundreds of North Korean fishing vessels have been running aground in Japan and South Korea, with their crews as skeletons or just missing. It was a mystery. Well, mystery solved, large numbers of Chinese fishing ships have been coming into North Korean waters for illegal fishing and they've been murdering the crews of the North Korean ships.

And the China government definitely knows about this, the number of ships involve makes up no less than a third of their entire deep sea fishing fleet.

Thanks for the link to an interesting and well researched story.

That said "murdering"?  Come on now, the article makes no such assertion.  That's some A-grade anti-China hysteria there. And really it's not needed, there is more than enough to criticise China over here (as elsewhere) without such absurd suggestions.  From the article:
Quote
probable explanation is that these Koreans are just poorly equipped fishermen taking desperate risks and venturing too far from shore
Quote
Autopsies on the bodies found on these boats usually indicate that the men died of starvation, hypothermia or dehydration.

Yes their livelihood is being undermined and in their desperation they are taking risks that lead to them dying but that does not add up to "murder".
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on July 29, 2020, 02:20:11 am
Yeah sorry I assumed that they didn't just spontaneously all suicide.

It's not actually as likely as you say. Remember 500 of these ships landed in Japan, without survivors. It seems like the survival rate of these ships is way lower than you'd expect. If you have 500 ships that break down due to engine failure and drift to Japan, I'd expect at least one to have a guy on it who ate the corpses of all the other guys. Humans are pretty hardy like that.

That one ship that went into the area did mention that the Chinese ship tried to ram them, so I wouldn't be surprised if they're disabling the NK ships rather than them just all randomly floating away, like 500+ times. Blown off course, engines broke down, ran out of supplies etc. Far more of them should in fact be limping into foreign ports, not all washing up as skeletons.

Quote
Chinese fishing boats are famously aggressive, often armed and known for ramming competitors or foreign patrol vessels, according to U.S. Navy officials and maritime security specialists. Chinese media often depict the country’s maritime clashes with other nearby Asian nations as an extension of ancient China's Three Kingdoms, which fought a fierce three-way battle for supremacy.

Tensions between Seoul and Beijing increased in 2016 after a Chinese vessel, illegally fishing in South Korean waters, sank a South Korean Coast Guard cutter. The cutter was in South Korean waters and was trying to stop a Chinese fishing ship that allegedly had been caught fishing illegally when it was rear-ended by another Chinese ship.

If they're willing to sink South Korean navy vessels, I think they're capable of ramming NK fishing boats.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on July 29, 2020, 04:06:52 am
I think they're capable of ramming NK fishing boats.

Capable yes.  But any corresponding damage to the boats washed up would be notable.  And far easier for the Chinese just to point guns at the NK boats and say "fuck off or we shoot".  Threatened ramming would amount to the same.

At least in the vast majority of cases it looks like fishermen driven from their depleting fishing grounds overextending their reach in an attempt to get a decent catch - cannibalism is not as easy as some make out, especially when at any moment the life-saving catch my take place.  I'm guessing they're driven by their government externally (even if it comes as an internal compulsion) to bring home the goods and in the attempt to fulfil that order put themselves beyond all human endurance.

If the Chinese fishermen were carrying out direct violent action there would be some sign of it and reports from survivors, whereas apparently they nearly always just ask to be returned home to North Korea.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Autohummer on July 29, 2020, 07:54:52 am
I would also add that the PRC and the DPRK are treaty bound allies, it makes no sense that they would murder each other.

Edit : speaking of Chinese fishing fleets, here is another thing that is going on
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53562439
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on July 29, 2020, 02:13:04 pm
If them North Korean vessels lose their crews to starvation, what worries me most about this situation is the extinction of fish.

As a wise North Korean saying goes.  Give a man a fish, and you will feed him for a month.  Teach a man how to fish and he will starve on the ocean.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 29, 2020, 02:21:30 pm
apparently they nearly always just ask to be returned home to North Korea.

Now this I can't believe. I woulda thought all the inhabitants of NK would want to escape.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on July 29, 2020, 02:23:52 pm
Did it say anything about if the ship's had fishing equipment still on/intact? A north Korean with no nets because the Chinese stole them all might not be able to fish to feed himself in the sea.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on July 29, 2020, 02:28:24 pm
Now that would not just be murder, but extremely cruel as well.  Outright killing them would be more humane.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on July 29, 2020, 06:16:32 pm
apparently they nearly always just ask to be returned home to North Korea.

Now this I can't believe. I woulda thought all the inhabitants of NK would want to escape.

Sounds like maybe you've been soaking in fake news without realising it.  ;)

Quote from the above article (an american reporter in an american publication, at that):
Quote
Since 2013, at least 50 survivors have been rescued from these dilapidated boats, but in interviews with Japanese police, the men rarely say more than that they were stranded at sea and that they want to be returned home to North Korea.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on July 30, 2020, 07:25:10 am
I mean. They have families and shit they care for. Seeking refuge abroad means your family goes to the slave camps, iirc. Or that they're executed.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 30, 2020, 07:43:59 am
Yeah, I just said that without even really thinking about it. Just never mind it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Kagus on July 30, 2020, 07:47:34 am
I mean. They have families and shit they care for. Seeking refuge abroad means your family goes to the slave camps, iirc. Or that they're executed.
I feel like it's probably mostly this, with potentially a side of fear that they're being watched by NK's omniscient presence and that even if they don't have any living loved ones at home, they themselves are being judged on their response and will be tortured/executed if they fail to do what's expected of them.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 30, 2020, 02:20:35 pm
Shinzo Abe has declared he is retiring as Prime Minister of Japan due to his ulcerative colitis.

If you aren't familiar with Abe's politics, he's often compared to Trump, particularly on racial nationalism. He is also the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, one of Imperial Japan's worst war criminals and also a PM of Japan at one point.

But don't worry, because Abe's likely successors as PM include such potentials as two clones of Abe, a guy who said Hitler was right, and a guy who said nuclear war is inevitable so we should just nuke China first. #JustLDPThings
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 30, 2020, 07:15:01 pm
Shinzo Abe has declared he is retiring as Prime Minister of Japan due to his ulcerative colitis.

If you aren't familiar with Abe's politics, he's often compared to Trump, particularly on racial nationalism. He is also the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, one of Imperial Japan's worst war criminals and also a PM of Japan at one point.

But don't worry, because Abe's likely successors as PM include such potentials as two clones of Abe, a guy who said Hitler was right, and a guy who said nuclear war is inevitable so we should just nuke China first. #JustLDPThings
Is that like the US metric system, where everything is units of football fields, hamburgers and Trumps

Quote from: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/world/asia/japan-abe-successor.html
Mr. Abe has so far declined to name a favorite candidate, saying that the leading ones were all “very promising.”
Diadochi: "Alexander, who amongst us should lead your Empire?"
Alexander: "The strongest,"

*EDIT
I love how toned down Al Jazeera's take is
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/japan-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-successors-200828070808872.html (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/japan-prime-minister-shinzo-abe-successors-200828070808872.html)
Quote
Minister of Finance Taro Aso, 79, who also doubles as deputy prime minister, has been a core member of Abe's administration. Without a clear consensus on who should succeed Abe, LDP legislators could elect Aso as a temporary leader if Abe resigns.
The grandson of a former prime minister, Aso mixes policy experience with a fondness for manga comics and a tendency towards gaffes.
Translation: Weaboo and werhmachtaboo

Quote
Shigeru Ishiba
A hawkish former defence minister and rare LDP critic of Abe, Shigeru Ishiba, 63, regularly tops surveys of legislators whom voters want to see as the next prime minister, but is less popular with the party's legislators.
The soft-spoken security maven has also held portfolios for agriculture and reviving local economies.
Popular with voters, but billy no mates in his own party

Quote
Fumio Kishida, 63, served as foreign minister under Abe from 2012 to 2017, but diplomacy remained mainly in the prime minister's grip.
The low-key legislator from Hiroshima has been widely seen as Abe's preferred successor but ranks low in voter surveys.

Minister of Defense Taro Kono, 56, has a reputation of being a maverick but has toed the line on key Abe policies, including a stern stance in a feud with South Korea over wartime history.
Educated at Georgetown University and a fluent English speaker, he previously served as foreign minister and minister for administrative reform.
Like Abe, but younger
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 30, 2020, 08:04:24 pm
I'm seeing people say Taro would be the pro-US choice. Imagine being pro-US in Twenty^2.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on August 31, 2020, 12:44:21 pm
Visions of a US-Japan partitiion of China along a South-North axis.  (Okay, that's enough sniffing newsprint for me.. ;D)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 31, 2020, 07:07:48 pm
I'm seeing people say Taro would be the pro-US choice. Imagine being pro-US in Twenty^2.
Easy choice to make when your neighbour is China, better to choose the farthest evil

Visions of a US-Japan partitiion of China along a South-North axis.  (Okay, that's enough sniffing newsprint for me.. ;D)
What about US-China partition of Japan on an East-West axis?

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 01, 2020, 12:25:05 am
Visions of a US-Japan partitiion of China along a South-North axis.  (Okay, that's enough sniffing newsprint for me.. ;D)
What about US-China partition of Japan on an East-West axis?

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Nah, the US and China haven't really co-operated* since... they drove the Japanese off the mainland.

* Even the word 'co-operation' smacks of damn commies.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 01, 2020, 09:23:50 am
Nah, the US and China haven't really co-operated* since... they drove the Japanese off the mainland.

* Even the word 'co-operation' smacks of damn commies.
I just wanted to propose terrible map borders, I don't think it's feasible
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on September 01, 2020, 09:29:33 am
I say we agree on those borders, except the US and China also get the island's outside the opposite partation's coast
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 01, 2020, 09:31:35 am
I say we agree on those borders, except the US and China also get the island's outside the opposite partation's coast
I think the islands should go to Brazil, India and both Koreas to amplify the border gore
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: A Thing on September 02, 2020, 09:48:06 am
I say we agree on those borders, except the US and China also get the island's outside the opposite partation's coast
I think the islands should go to Brazil, India and both Koreas to amplify the border gore

I see you follow the Hearts of Iron 4 school of peace treaties.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 02, 2020, 09:58:33 am
I see you follow the Hearts of Iron 4 school of peace treaties.
Broke: PHD in international relations
Woke: haha kurils go to switzerland, shikoku to finland
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 02, 2020, 03:00:48 pm
big banter moment but India just captured a Chinese base in the Himalayas using an elite unit of ethnic tibetan commandos after the Chinese launched a covert attack with 500 men. What an embarrassing day for CCP
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 04, 2020, 03:49:09 am
Um, er, well, that's an 'interesting' way of putting it.  But yeah something went down.

The more important question is what measures the PRC take to deal with the rise of violent fascism, both near and far.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on September 04, 2020, 05:34:30 am
What?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 04, 2020, 06:13:24 am
What?
He's aping the rhetoric Russia used when invading Ukraine, you know the whole "we're not invading but if we were invading it was because we were defending from fascists by defending into their country which we're not in"
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 05, 2020, 12:07:36 am
What?

In terms of the far there's the orange baby, guess I don't need to fill you in on that score, but just in case I point you to the the Ameripol and Abusive Policing threads.

With the near, i.e. India, I guess you haven't been following the developments - here's probably the quickest way to summarise it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zdxODINAoE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zdxODINAoE)

The renewed tensions along the line of actual control kicked off in June last year in response to India building a series of roads along the border.  China responded by increasing its military forces in the region. Things have gone downhill since.  (Mind you China have not been exactly shy in the road building stakes, but their approach has been more nuanced and gradual as opposed to India's sudden push.)
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3088973/high-roads-border-conflict-through-india-and-china (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3088973/high-roads-border-conflict-through-india-and-china)

In terms of fascism this responds to the need to have a paradoxically exceedingly power/trivially weak external enemy to complement the internal vilification.  (On the latter see the troubling rise of militant Hindu nationalism and the comcomittant changes to citizenship in India over the past few years.)

I can't even guess what LW has been drinking but it's certainly not the standard kool aid.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 05, 2020, 09:31:00 am
I can't even guess what LW has been drinking but it's certainly not the standard kool aid.
I wasn't sure if you were being serious about fascist India vs communist China or if this was a Hoi4 thread in disguise

*EDIT
The renewed tensions along the line of actual control kicked off in June last year in response to India building a series of roads along the border.  China responded by increasing its military forces in the region. Things have gone downhill since.  (Mind you China have not been exactly shy in the road building stakes, but their approach has been more nuanced and gradual as opposed to India's sudden push.)
And that's just objectively wrong, China has been the one continuously pushing, not just in Kashmir but near the Siliguri corridor and the South China Seas. China moves piecemeal so as to not provoke a military reaction, and if a military reaction occurs they can claim they're defending even when they just annexed someone else's territory. Same shit as the Russian salami slicing tactic
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 05, 2020, 11:05:14 am
I'm sorry (for you) but India has no claim, or frontage, on any of the South China Sea.  Please spare us your vitriolic xenophobia over China.  In fact the whole South China Sea thing has a bunch of countries with rather fantastic (read quite spurious) claims, China amongst them.  Don't hear you complaining about Taiwan's claims now do we, even though they are of the exact same extension.  But of course this is all off topic to the India-China border clash thing - hence my all too quick assumption about why you bring it up.

Back to where India and China do have a shared, and contested, border in Kashmir/Ladakh/the Karakorum mountains. 

Basic background up till a couple of months ago:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/what-is-behind-the-india-china-border-dispute-lac/12363348 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/what-is-behind-the-india-china-border-dispute-lac/12363348)

A summary taking into account more recent events, but not including the last incident (quotes follow):
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ap-explains-indias-kashmir-move-foretold-china-standoff-72485794 (https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ap-explains-indias-kashmir-move-foretold-china-standoff-72485794)

Quick summary:
Quote
Experts say India’s actions in Kashmir a year ago exacerbated existing tensions with China, culminating in the deadliest clash between the Asian giants in more than four decades.

Part of the rise of Indian fascism has been the vilification and oppression of religious minorities, specifically Muslims, and to a lesser degree Buddhists:
Quote
In August 2019, New Delhi stripped India-administered Kashmir of its statehood, demoting it to a federal territory, and clamped down on dissent. The region’s decades-old semi-autonomy, which protected jobs and land from outsiders, was also scrapped. New Delhi also carved out Ladakh as a separate federal territory.

Basically they went full jackboot military occupation, right on China's border, and guess what - China got upset.  Since this June India has turned this up to eleven:
Quote
Since the mid-June army clashes between China and India, residents of Ladakh’s towns, which are dotted with Buddhist temples and cafes for mountaineering tourists, have watched uneasily as Indian troops brought in fighter jets, artillery and construction materials. The activity has marked one of the most massive military buildups in decades.

Quote
In Kashmir’s main city of Srinagar, demonstrators on June 21 jeered at Indian soldiers by shouting “China is coming!”

“We hope powerful China’s involvement helps us to end India’s occupation of Kashmir,” said dried fruit merchant Nazir Ahmed.

(Please note these are Australian and American sources and one would expect that were any bias to exist it would be anti-China.)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 05, 2020, 03:54:17 pm
I'm sorry (for you) but India has no claim, or frontage, on any of the South China Sea.  Please spare us your vitriolic xenophobia over China.
You misunderstand, I'm not saying India and China are fighting in the SCS, I'm saying China is using the same tactics they employ in the SCS

In fact the whole South China Sea thing has a bunch of countries with rather fantastic (read quite spurious) claims, China amongst them.  Don't hear you complaining about Taiwan's claims now do we, even though they are of the exact same extension.  But of course this is all off topic to the India-China border clash thing - hence my all too quick assumption about why you bring it up.
Taiwan did not destroy a bunch of coral reefs to install ROC airbases against international Law, against UN rulings, against basic human decency, to go fuck with my SE Asian madlads like Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam. Meanwhile PRC did. And PRC has absolutely no claim at all to waters that belong to other countries, it's ludicrous to argue China is just one fantasist amongst many - they are the only unicorn in a field of horses

Back to where India and China do have a shared, and contested, border in Kashmir/Ladakh/the Karakorum mountains. 

Basic background up till a couple of months ago:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/what-is-behind-the-india-china-border-dispute-lac/12363348 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/what-is-behind-the-india-china-border-dispute-lac/12363348)
Why stop at months? Why ignore the years of continual Chinese annexation of Indian ground? (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/how-india-plans-to-counter-chinas-salami-slicing-strategy/articleshow/61035843.cms?from=mdr) Cos it's inconvenient when they fight back clearly

Part of the rise of Indian fascism has been the vilification and oppression of religious minorities, specifically Muslims, and to a lesser degree Buddhists
Yeah the CCP with their actual genocide of Muslims in actual concentration camps are doing this for the anti-fascist crusade against the world's largest democracy
Lmao
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 06, 2020, 06:06:32 pm
SCS - some pretty fantastic claims there, check out the extension of Vietnam's claim nearly all the way to Malayasia, and Malaysia's most of the way to Hong Kong. 

Had to laugh at this one.  (All too common in the world of international politics/diplomacy.)
Quote
against international Law, against UN rulings, against basic human decency
We're talking about the maritime 'redrawing' of boundaries Australia engaged in to steal Timor-Leste's (aka East Timor) oil and gas, right?  Yeah that was abominable, full on cloak and dagger as well including the bugging of Timor-Leste's embassy in the lead-up to 'negotiations'.   ;)


Basic background up till a couple of months ago:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/what-is-behind-the-india-china-border-dispute-lac/12363348 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-17/what-is-behind-the-india-china-border-dispute-lac/12363348)
Why stop at months? Why ignore the years of continual Chinese annexation of Indian ground? (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/how-india-plans-to-counter-chinas-salami-slicing-strategy/articleshow/61035843.cms?from=mdr) Cos it's inconvenient when they fight back clearly

Part of the rise of Indian fascism has been the vilification and oppression of religious minorities, specifically Muslims, and to a lesser degree Buddhists
Yeah the CCP with their actual genocide of Muslims in actual concentration camps are doing this for the anti-fascist crusade against the world's largest democracy
Lmao

No you've got the wrong end of the stick (and didn't bother to read the source).  The 'couple of months' was in reference to the article being written in June so not covering events occuring since.  The article descibes how the problem goes back to 1947 with the British doing their usual terrible job of willy-nilly drawing lines on the map in ignorance of all existing cultural, religious and ethnic conventions. Oh and and then they go the fuck home.
Quote
While no border has ever officially been negotiated along the Himalayan stretch that divides the two nations, the truce established a 3,380 kilometre-long, loosely demarcated line referred to as the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
It also mentions the the border war of 1959-62.  The reason for the occasion of the article (also specified) were the first fatalities in the dispute since 1969.  So that is why the events of a few months ago are significant (at least for me and the article).

The article you link in response is a nice piece of rhetoric, but where's the facts?  It doesn't mention a single example of its fancy 'salami slicing' so it's impossible to verify (or refute).  Linkng it rather than anything which makes an objective claim is very misleading.  Or to put it another way the hot-air blowing by Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has about as much credence as a CIA show and tell at the UN about mobile Iraqi chemical weapons manufactories, and very likely similar aims.

Yep, authoritarian China does some very nasty shit to the Uyghurs, and are pretty fucked in Hong Kong too but that doesn't excuse India's border push. 

It's also somewhat of a red herring since India has its own series of detention centres, many under construction, to deal with the stateless persons aka those declared illegal immigrants under the machinations of the Citizenship Amendment Act/National Register of Citizens:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/human-india-largest-detention-centre-ready-200102044649934.html (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/human-india-largest-detention-centre-ready-200102044649934.html)
Quote
Ali's brother-in-law failed to make it to the National Register of Citizens (NRC), a list published in Assam this year which declared 1.9 million people as "illegal" migrants, who now face either detention in a camp like the one coming up at Goalpara, or deportation.
https://www.iol.co.za/news/opinion/the-ugly-rise-of-fascism-in-india-44235061 (https://www.iol.co.za/news/opinion/the-ugly-rise-of-fascism-in-india-44235061)
Quote
It is widely recognised that the National Register will be used to discriminate against Muslims in particular, and will leave them vulnerable in their own country and targets of persecution.

Needless to say China whatever its other shortcomings has not experienced the quickly increasing spate of mob violence that has run rampant in India over the last few years often with the implicit, or even explicit, help of the police and judiciary. 
https://intpolicydigest.org/2020/01/23/india-on-the-slippery-slope-to-fascism/ (https://intpolicydigest.org/2020/01/23/india-on-the-slippery-slope-to-fascism/)
Quote
Symptomatic of this divide is the issue of mob-lynchings, an increasingly common phenomenon in India which generally occurs in the form of informal public executions to punish an alleged transgressor. Mob lynchings have often been associated with cow vigilantes who seek to protect and prevent the slaughter of cows seen as sacred under Hindu law, and more often than not, target members of the Muslim minority. Human Rights Watch has attributed this increase in mob vigilantism to the widespread use of communal rhetoric by the BJP.

Yeah, India is still a democracy, but you know that little man in Germany close to a century ago was elected as the ruler of a democratic country and 'democratically' given tyrannical powers; led to a wee bit of conflict a few years later.  Or again just because Trump was elected "democratically" (yeah what the fuck in practice does that actually mean) it does not mean that he is not a fascist.

The logic of China's the face of pure evil (Saddam's a nasty dictator) so anything done against them is justified is just as broken now as it was then.

Edit: typos
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 06, 2020, 07:12:20 pm
Why must you fight? You can despise both China and India at the same time, you know.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 06, 2020, 07:29:43 pm
China will grow larger
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on September 06, 2020, 07:35:28 pm
Why must you fight? You can despise both China and India at the same time, you know.

Don't forget the Americans, the British and the Australians, they deserve to be despised too.  :D
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 06, 2020, 07:44:31 pm
There's room in my heart for all of you.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 15, 2020, 03:40:52 am
Yoshihide Suga was voted as Abe's replacement, by the way. He's one of the clones of Abe, as opposed to the guy who said Hitler was right or the guy who said we should just nuke China and get it over with.

Suga has shown his immense boldness and vision by promising deregulation and self-help as Japan's economy makes that really concerning sound where you don't know if there's just a panel loose or something right before one of the wings falls off, also there's covid everywhere.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: RedKing on September 15, 2020, 03:52:26 pm
Yoshihide Suga was voted as Abe's replacement, by the way. He's one of the clones of Abe, as opposed to the guy who said Hitler was right or the guy who said we should just nuke China and get it over with.

Suga has shown his immense boldness and vision by promising deregulation and self-help as Japan's economy makes that really concerning sound where you don't know if there's just a panel loose or something right before one of the wings falls off, also there's covid everywhere.
It's ok, Japan is just getting ready to transform its economy into Super Gunbuster Armored VOTOMS Mode.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 15, 2020, 04:31:46 pm
Are we at war with Eastasia yet?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Enemy post on September 15, 2020, 05:14:19 pm
Are we at war with Eastasia yet?

No, we’ve always been at war with Eurasia.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Reelya on November 24, 2020, 02:01:05 pm
https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/deleted-tweet-reveals-chinese-village-built-on-disputed-territory-in-bhutan/news-story/e3153e7b2cafec9e8fb1528399b88bec

To summarize, they built a model village in Tibet, Chinese state-backed social media influencers were promoting it, but they gave too many details and when people check satelite maps they discovered that the village is actually in Bhutan and is part of a secret move by China to shove "loyal" Tibetan villagers over the border to populate a neighboring country, along with obfuscating the fact that it's near a military base. So they've got a wall of happy-looking villagers now so if you try and expel the Chinese military from your territory they can scream about human rights.

It sums up China in that the only time they treat Tibetans nicely, even on paper, is when they need them as a human wall to cover up a land grab.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on November 25, 2020, 02:53:31 am
There's an entire Wikipedia article (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_salami_slicing) devoted to China's salami slicing tactics. It's a shame Bhutan isn't asserting its territorial rights, but with one of the world's biggest militaries looming over them, I can see why.

Frankly, I have little respect for the tactics used by China. Nothing against the common man in the country, but the CCP is contemptable as a government.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 30, 2020, 06:56:45 pm
What's mine is mine and what's yours is negotiable
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on January 31, 2021, 06:46:51 pm
Looks like we have a military coup in Myanmar

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 01, 2021, 07:46:52 am
Fourth time's the charm
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2021, 12:59:02 pm
The army has declared martial law and national state of emergency for a period of 1 year, after which they promise to hold free and fair elections. Except for the nationalist supporters party of the army (USDP, who were wiped out in the elections last november), no one in Myanmar believes a word of it.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: misko27 on February 01, 2021, 02:53:46 pm
Apparently it's come after recent elections in Myanmar delivered a strong result for Aung San Siu Kyi's National League for Democracy, 83%, which the military had attempted to overturn as fraudulent and made claims pf mass voter fraud (which was rejected by Myanmar's Supreme Court).

Myanmar's democracy gave many advantages to the military, including guaranteed seats in parliament (the constitution was desgined by the military, after all). But the military's proxy party performed poorly regardless. The Army Chief was supposed to be aging out of his position this summer; unclear what happens there now.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on February 02, 2021, 02:08:31 pm
What do you do during a coup?  Well dance aerobics, of course.

https://www.9news.com.au/world/myanmar-workout-video-during-military-takeover-goes-viral/528d3bb6-0c5c-4204-9699-f5142499980a (https://www.9news.com.au/world/myanmar-workout-video-during-military-takeover-goes-viral/528d3bb6-0c5c-4204-9699-f5142499980a)

(Emma Goldman eat your heart out ...)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on February 03, 2021, 03:04:36 am
Obviously the democratic election was fraudulent because the wrong party got elected, and thus the military has a moral responsibility to rectify this error using force.

Sarcasm aside, I expect to some degree there likely was fraud during the election. Dirty dealings among the rich and powerful are pretty much a given for a developing nation. Also, let's not forget Aung San Suu Kyi's track record with the Rohingya genocide tarnishing her reputation as a symbol of western style liberal democracy.

Personally, I give it even odds we'll see some form of pivot towards the Chinese within Myanmar's military over the next few decades. I sincerely doubt this state of events isn't at least somewhat stimulated by influence from the CCP to destabilize the formation of yet another western friendly democratic government on their doorstep.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on February 03, 2021, 09:14:06 am
Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi has now been formally charged with .... the posession of 6 illegally imported walkie talkies.

In protest against the coup, the population of Myanmar banged on pots and pans.  The doctors and nurses of 70 hospitals and healthcare centres went on strike, refusing to do their job in protest of the coup.

I wonder how many patients died.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 03, 2021, 02:08:59 pm
Look out she's got a walkie talkie
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on February 12, 2021, 06:08:01 am
As was to be expected, China banned 'gossip machine' BBC World News for 'severely violating Chinese regulations that ensure truthful and honest reporting'.

The decision comes a week after the UK banned CGTN
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on February 28, 2021, 12:48:29 pm
So apparently in Hong Kong holding an election to select opposition candidates is an act of attempting to overthrow the government.  47 opposition figures have been charged on this basis with 'conspiracy to commit subversion'.  The new security law in its most stringent application (so far).

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56228363 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-56228363)

Well I guess they are not wrong, what is a democractic election but an overturning of goverment.  :P
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on February 28, 2021, 02:11:56 pm
Ceterum autem censeo Chinam esse delendam
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: feelotraveller on February 28, 2021, 02:27:02 pm
Ceterum autem censeo Chinam esse delendam

Warmongering zenophobia has a long and inglorious history.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on February 28, 2021, 02:30:16 pm
War isn't always bad. War is horrible, but not always bad. Imagine how the world would be like if we hadn't gone to war with Hitler. And China is becoming more and more like Hitler, with how for example they genocide the Uigurs, and supress opposition.

But yeah, I'd prefer China be destroyed from within by protests and democratic reforms than by war.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 28, 2021, 04:57:01 pm
Ceterum autem censeo Chinam esse delendam
Totally agree but it should be 'Sinam' for the proper Latin flavor :P
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on March 01, 2021, 04:52:44 am
War isn't always bad. War is horrible, but not always bad. Imagine how the world would be like if we hadn't gone to war with Hitler. And China is becoming more and more like Hitler, with how for example they genocide the Uigurs, and supress opposition.

But yeah, I'd prefer China be destroyed from within by protests and democratic reforms than by war.
The whole western world was hoping this would be the outcome of welcoming China to the world table in the mid-twentieth century. The idea was that by raising the standard of living of the majority of the Chinese population from subsistence farming to middle-class western standards, they'd quickly demand personal liberties and topple their authoritarian government.

Instead, we get Tiananmen Square, a democratic Chinese government in exile in Taiwan that never returned to the mainland, and a Orwellian surveillance state of totalitarianism.

But hey, they make cheap stuff for us and buy our resources, so we'll continue to ignore their human rights violations. Plus, they've got big voting blocks in the UN, so it's not too hard to change the definition of human rights as well.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on March 01, 2021, 05:00:23 am
Yeah.. I think the world still needs to let the fact that they lost their foothold for that with the new Hong Kong law sink in.
I think historians will note that this marked the definitive end of the attempt at bringing democratic reforms to China.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: thompson on March 01, 2021, 12:08:55 pm
Xi may have cooked his goose with his shenanigans in Hong Kong. He absolutely could have gotten away with the annexation of the South China Sea, but running the whole Uighur concentration camps, Hong Kong, the coronavirus, and whatever the hell that wolf warrior diplomacy nonsense was supposed to be. I do wonder whether he’s going senile, fending off internal threats, or just has a god complex.

That being said, with the US and EU being pretty distracted with internal divisions, I do wonder if maybe he might not be as crazy as he looks from the outside. If he gets away with it, forget liberalising China - we’ll be writing the obituary of liberalism globally.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Duuvian on April 01, 2021, 01:55:16 am
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/1/myanmar-facing-bloodbath-un-envoy-tells-security-council
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: martinuzz on April 01, 2021, 03:00:23 am
Myanmar has already been facing bloodbaths for the past 2 weeks. Last week, the army warned the population that any more protest will be met with shooting in the head and shooting in the back. They meant it, and they did it. Already 100s of dead, most of them were shot in the head.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on April 01, 2021, 03:50:43 am
Also, China is floating a 'fishing' fleet off the Philippine coast (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56474847), except the vessels aren't moving, aren't fishing, and all appear to be brand new off the line.

The modern day land grab is now the ocean. God only knows how many unmanned submarine drones China has out there, mapping the region for future wars.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 02, 2021, 12:06:40 pm
Also, China is floating a 'fishing' fleet off the Philippine coast (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56474847), except the vessels aren't moving, aren't fishing, and all appear to be brand new off the line.

The modern day land grab is now the ocean. God only knows how many unmanned submarine drones China has out there, mapping the region for future wars.
It's like the Russian green men; station irregular forces in disputed territory so that any conflict triggered is triggered by the opposing party. Combine politics with warfare, the Philippines cannot counter these "fishing ships crewed and armed by CCP militia" without resorting to actual Phillipino navy vessels, which in turn opens the door for intervention by Chinese naval and air forces posted in their "research reefs"
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Duuvian on May 07, 2021, 07:08:47 am
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/6/myanmars-anti-coup-bloc-to-form-a-defence-force

Headline: Defence force aimed to protect civilians from security forces and could be a precursor to establishing a Federal Union Army.

Seems like the UN aught to do whatever they do for this
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 10, 2021, 04:18:45 am
Seems like the UN aught to do whatever they do for this
Strongly worded letter?
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Jimmy on May 10, 2021, 07:25:50 am
Which is promptly vetoed by China.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: StrawBarrel on September 07, 2022, 05:13:47 pm
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1121427407/survivors-of-a-massacre-in-south-korea-are-still-seeking-an-apology-from-the-u-s
This was a great listen during my morning commute. I didn’t know that these brutal killings occurred at Jeju. The US really needs to apologize for these murders. Hopefully discussions and dialogue about this tragedy will continue in South Korea.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2022, 04:05:24 pm
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/07/1121427407/survivors-of-a-massacre-in-south-korea-are-still-seeking-an-apology-from-the-u-s
This was a great listen during my morning commute. I didn’t know that these brutal killings occurred at Jeju. The US really needs to apologize for these murders. Hopefully discussions and dialogue about this tragedy will continue in South Korea.
Probably won't happen any time soon; US military has a history of keeping quiet on shameful actions, like the quiet sweeping away of military crimes in Okinawa (https://theintercept.com/2021/10/03/okinawa-sexual-crimes-us-military/)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 23, 2022, 09:59:14 am
Quote from: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/22/what-do-we-know-about-talks-to-form-a-new-malaysian-goverment
The Malaysia-based Centre for Independent Journalism (CIJ) set up a team to monitor hate speech on social media during the campaign and its data showed race-based narratives dominated the political discourse.

In an analysis part way through the campaign it identified PAS and its leader Abdul Hadi Awang as among the worst offenders.

“They have resorted to fear-triggering Muslim voters with phrases like ‘going to hell if you vote Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional’, and inciting violence against ‘kafir harbi’ (enemies of Islam), and for calling Malays to unite and fight against the Chinese (DAP) and Indians,” CIJ said in a statement.

Muhyiddin also attracted criticism after claiming at a PN rally that PH was working with Christians and Jews to “convert” Muslims in Malaysia in a speech that was shared widely on TikTok.
Uh oh
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Great Order on November 23, 2022, 10:38:40 am
Can we just fucking stop with the divisive rhetoric? Please? I want to live in a world where people can actually get along, Christ almighty.
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on November 23, 2022, 02:37:31 pm
Quote from: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/22/what-do-we-know-about-talks-to-form-a-new-malaysian-goverment
The Malaysia-based Centre for Independent Journalism (CIJ) set up a team to monitor hate speech on social media during the campaign and its data showed race-based narratives dominated the political discourse.

In an analysis part way through the campaign it identified PAS and its leader Abdul Hadi Awang as among the worst offenders.

“They have resorted to fear-triggering Muslim voters with phrases like ‘going to hell if you vote Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional’, and inciting violence against ‘kafir harbi’ (enemies of Islam), and for calling Malays to unite and fight against the Chinese (DAP) and Indians,” CIJ said in a statement.

Muhyiddin also attracted criticism after claiming at a PN rally that PH was working with Christians and Jews to “convert” Muslims in Malaysia in a speech that was shared widely on TikTok.
Uh oh

How much contact do you still have with thr Malaysian side of the family? I hope they manage to keep out of danger if things escalate.


Can we just fucking stop with the divisive rhetoric? Please? I want to live in a world where people can actually get along, Christ almighty.

It's always inspirational to see hiw much people are the same all over the world; just shuffle the nouns and you've got the USA right now ;)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 23, 2022, 03:04:20 pm
How much contact do you still have with thr Malaysian side of the family? I hope they manage to keep out of danger if things escalate.
They're pretty depressed but that's not anything new; they were already depressed before for nonpolitical reasons

It's always inspirational to see hiw much people are the same all over the world; just shuffle the nouns and you've got the USA right now ;)
Lmaoing, but lmaoing and crying at the same time
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: EuchreJack on November 24, 2022, 05:50:29 pm
Yet another sign of the hypocrisy of China's "Communist" government: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/23/tech/china-covid-foxconn-zhengzhou-confrontation-intl-hnk/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/11/23/tech/china-covid-foxconn-zhengzhou-confrontation-intl-hnk/index.html)
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: scriver on November 24, 2022, 06:41:36 pm
:picture of pigs and farmer's socializing with each other; you are unable of tell them apart:
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 25, 2022, 06:44:47 am
Xi Jinping: Communism is inevitable
Xi Jinping: Return to the Apple factory at once
Title: Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 25, 2022, 07:51:23 am
Apples are red. QED.