Bay 12 Games Forum
Finally... => General Discussion => Topic started by: MaxTheFox on November 09, 2020, 10:36:36 pm
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You know the AmeriPol and EuroPol threads? They're nice if you like that sort of thing (endless debates). But they only apply to just two regions: America and Europe. This thread is meant for political discussion regarding either the rest of the world or general political theory that doesn't really fit into the other two threads.
Note: If this descends into a flamewar I will lock the thread for a while until people calm down. Because otherwise Toady might have to step in and then someone gets banned. Please keep some semblance of civility.
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There are actually threads for pretty much every geographical region, so you may want to keep this as a generic political discussion thread.
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ok actually not a bad idea sometimes I want to talk about the UN or something like that but then people are too busy with whatever scandals are consuming their local government today.
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Anyone heard about what's happening in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
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Latest I've heard is this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/nagorno-karabakh-armenia-pm-signs-deal-to-end-war-with-azerbaijan-and-russia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/10/nagorno-karabakh-armenia-pm-signs-deal-to-end-war-with-azerbaijan-and-russia)
The conflict was mentioned briefly when it started in the non-Europe/Russia thread but quickly got sidetracked into the burning issue of whether Armenia was part of Europe on not.
If you are talking about the six weeks of war a decent summary is here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_war)
Or was your question more specific?
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There are actually threads for pretty much every geographical region, so you may want to keep this as a generic political discussion thread.
Anyone else remember Afripol? And RedKings' Eastasiapol? Me neither. Feels bad man.
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Also worth noting that Ethiopia is on the verge of a serious and potentially bloody civil war.
After the Eritrean Independence War in the 1990s, Ethiopia has actually been a relatively bulwark of stability in East Africa (certainly moreso than Sudan or Somalia or even Kenya).
The short version is that Ethopia's current Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, who came to power in 2018, has been working to weaken the ethnic federalism that has been the norm in Ethiopia for decades, and as part of this reorganized the military which had previously been dominated by people from the Tigray ethnic group/region. When Abiy postponed September elections in Tigray (ostensibly due to coronavirus), popular outrage erupted and the Tigrayan local government (and ethnic/state militia) began vociferously opposing Abiy's government in Addis Ababa.
Tigray is governed largely by the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which was a major factor in overthrowing the Communist government of Haile Mariam in 1991. They were also on the frontlines of the Eritrean war in the 1990s, as Tigray and Eritrea share a considerable border. The fact that Abiy is seen as "friendly" with Eritrea (he won the Nobel Peace Prize last year for his work in Ethiopian-Eritrean reconciliation) is another reason for the rift. Further, Abiy is an ethnic Oromo, the first Oromo to be elected head of the ERPDF, a pan-ethnic political coalition of which the TPLF is a member.
It's hard as a non-expert in this region to tell whether this is a crusading reformer running into backlash from an ethnic group afraid of losing its powerbase, or a budding dictator running into popular resistance from within his own ranks. My guess would be, as so often is the case in developing countries, that it's a bit of both. Regardless of who the "good guy" is (or if there even is one), the clashes between the Ethopian military and the TPLF militias (who are well-equipped, well-trained and seasoned) have already killed over 600 and triggered a wave of refugees fleeing into Sudan.
There are actually threads for pretty much every geographical region, so you may want to keep this as a generic political discussion thread.
Anyone else remember Afripol? And RedKings' Eastasiapol? Me neither. Feels bad man.
Asiapol is still out there somewhere, I just hadn't been keeping it current since I took a couple years' hiatus. I really should update it to talk about the Thai situation and the most recent happenings in Hong Kong. :-/
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* Seductively Backfilps Into Thread.
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Azerbajan kind of won. Not a total victory but made significant gains
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Azerbajan kind of won. Not a total victory but made significant gains
Seeing as this may be the closest thread to topics of modern warfare...
The Washington Post had a pretty interesting article (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nagorno-karabkah-drones-azerbaijan-aremenia/2020/11/11/441bcbd2-193d-11eb-8bda-814ca56e138b_story.html) over the weekend about this conflict. In short, it attributes Azerbaijan's success to modern drone tactics. Armenia's limited/old anti-air probably was a factor in this, and recent training exercises with Turkey's military. (and possible Turkish mercenaries.)
Azerbaijan used its drone fleet — purchased from Israel and Turkey — to stalk and destroy Armenia’s weapons systems in Nagorno-Karabakh, shattering its defenses and enabling a swift advance. Armenia found that air defense systems in Nagorno-Karabakh, many of them older Soviet systems, were impossible to defend against drone attacks, and losses quickly piled up.
. . . .
“Clearly, the decisive factor in this conflict is Turkey’s intervention on Azerbaijan’s side. They seem to be heavily coordinating the war effort,” [an expert] said, adding that it appeared Turkey had moved Syrian mercenaries into Azerbaijan two weeks before the conflict.
Turkey denies recruiting Syrian mercenaries to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh.
And then there were the drones. Their targets included fortified positions from the 1990s.
“There were massive losses,” de Waal said. “Possibly around a third of Armenian tanks have been destroyed. That’s obviously been a critical factor in taking all those territories.”
. . . .
In the early stages of the war, Azerbaijan used 11 slow Soviet-era An-2 aircraft that had been converted into drones and sent them buzzing over Nagorno-Karabakh as bait to Armenian air defense systems — tempting them to fire and reveal their positions, after which they could be hit by drones.
Azerbaijan used surveillance drones to spot targets and sent armed drones or kamikaze drones to destroy them, analysts said.
The drones purchased by Azerbaijan were Turkish Bayraktar TB2s (which look kind of like a budget Predator) and Israeli "loitering munitions" - i.e. kamikaze drones, possibly the Firefly in particular. That's a man-portable (3 kg) missile that can hover about, basically. Supposedly cheaper than an anti-tank missile, yet also allows for both surveillance and strike in one package.
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Possibly-unpopular opinion: people should be forced to vaccinate their children. Because if antivaxxers endanger themselves then they're just idiots but if they endanger their children then they are a danger to society itself.
If they still don't take their children to be vaccinated after some verbal nudging and warnings by the government, they should be arrested and then recorded as abusive parents with all that entails (court case, children put up for adoption).
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They're not just endangering their own kids, but others as well. There are legitimate, non-stupid reasons certain people can't be completely immunized. Certain people being young children, and rarer, those with allergic reactions to vaccines. Anti-vaxxers are risking all those lives in their senseless crusade.
Incidentally, we face a similar problem with anti-maskers, but we already have a thread for that...
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Well if there's proof they can't be immunized (can that be tested safely?) then they get a pass.
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Possibly-unpopular opinion: people should be forced to vaccinate their children.
For old tried-and-true vaccines, yes, possibly. I'm much less certain of newly created vaccines.
There's also the thing that a forced legal must is only neccessary in a culture where a large percentage of people has stopped believing in vaccines. The problem then is that forcing people to vaccinate won't raise belief in vaccines again, in fact it might only lower it further. Meaning that eventually we might end up with so many unbelievers that they can make vaccinations a choice again, or even outlaw them completely. So I don't think forcing them is an option in the long run either.
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Russia is dying.
Dying from the corrupt oligarchs, from the conservative politicians, from the inherently reactionary Orthodox Church.
It can only be saved via a coup-- and while liberal democracy can indeed prevent the inevitable rot, it won't make Russia any stronger. God can't save Russia. Only an unflinching dedication to progress of all kinds can. The best future for us lies not in the chanting of the church choir, nor in the march of the soldiers. It lies in the steam towers of nuclear power plants, in the raging flame of rocket engines, in the cold calculations of supercomputers. We need technocracy. Less resources need to be dedicated on preserving our reactionary culture. It brings nothing to the nation, to progress, and can be left to rot like the beaten carcass it is. Nothing else must guide the government besides science and reason.
Exterminate all species of mosquitoes that bite humans, strip-mine asteroids, make sure the tricolor is waving on the Moon and Mars, invest heavily in AI research. Make sure that Russia is on the path to technological singularity and everything that stands in the way is crushed underfoot.
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Russia is dying.
Dying from the corrupt oligarchs, from the conservative politicians, from the inherently reactionary Orthodox Church.
It can only be saved via a coup-- and while liberal democracy can indeed prevent the inevitable rot, it won't make Russia any stronger. God can't save Russia. Only an unflinching dedication to progress of all kinds can. The best future for us lies not in the chanting of the church choir, nor in the march of the soldiers. It lies in the steam towers of nuclear power plants, in the raging flame of rocket engines, in the cold calculations of supercomputers. We need technocracy. Less resources need to be dedicated on preserving our reactionary culture. It brings nothing to the nation, to progress, and can be left to rot like the beaten carcass it is. Nothing else must guide the government besides science and reason.
Exterminate all species of mosquitoes that bite humans, strip-mine asteroids, make sure the tricolor is waving on the Moon and Mars, invest heavily in AI research. Make sure that Russia is on the path to technological singularity and everything that stands in the way is crushed underfoot.
This would be just as true if you replaced the word "Russia" with "USA" and "Orthodox Church" with "Religious Right"
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On the forcing/not-forcing of vaccines, Spain is planning to securely list those of its population who are offered the vaccine but refuse (sounds sinister, to that demographic; probably sounds more sensible Ok for the majority who will be '!offered || !refusing') ostensibly to make sure honest efforts to help slip between the cracks, i.e. don't get counted as a failure of coverage if they pop up later as queries. Should be easier to maintain than the vastly larger lists that dynamically complement this one, especially if needed to cross-check details across borders at some point.
(I'd have mentioned this in the Covid thread, eventually but it's a useful PTW point to hang my hat in here. And it can be considered outside of just the Covid/EU domains, as a principle, if anyone insists of discussing it further.)
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Meanwhile in Uganda, all social media has been banned (https://nypost.com/2021/01/12/uganda-bans-all-social-media-ahead-of-election/) ahead of the upcoming elections, likely because Wine, the opposition leader, was using it to broadcasts rallies etc. after current African Dictator Museveni prevented regular media outlets covering them.
Basically just another day in Africa.
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Meanwhile in Uganda, all social media has been banned (https://nypost.com/2021/01/12/uganda-bans-all-social-media-ahead-of-election/) ahead of the upcoming elections, likely because Wine, the opposition leader, was using it to broadcasts rallies etc. after current African Dictator Museveni prevented regular media outlets covering them.
Basically just another day in Africa.
The opposition has since then had its HQ raided, loads of files nicked (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uganda-election/ugandan-opposition-says-troops-raid-its-offices-amid-election-challenge-idUSKBN29N1K7?edition-redirect=ca)
Wotta load of rubbish that is
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REMOVE PUTIN remove putin you are the worst vatnik
I hope the Kremlin gets stormed and every single one of Putin's cronies removed and a new Provisional Government installed. Fucking kill them all. THIRD REVOLUTION NOW! WHERE'S MY GUILLOTINE?
They can't find me because I'm behind a VPN and the FSB is too r******* to beat that. Because they're all dipshits and idiots. Not a single good soul is in the upper ranks of the United Russia party. Place the oligarchs under control and if they try to flee to other countries to escape regulations, then forcibly take their money and businesses. Yes it's theft, but they steal lots from THE PEOPLE THEMSELVES! It would be merely taking back what was taken from us.
After this, do something about the fascists. Killing them wouldn't be good and would just provoke negative reactions both at home and internationally. Censoring them will do. That counts as removing them in my book.
Now if there was a way to filter stupid people from running for office (even local mayors or the like) without the possibility of rigging the tests, but I'm afraid that's not very practical. They don't deserve to be in power, still.
For now I settle for spreading propaganda, inciting people to riot, and the occassional trolling/raiding campaign. I am doing my part in the overthrow of the Russian government.
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There is a Russiapol thread. (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=153622.0) Well, and Turkeypol/Israpol/etc., but mostly Russia right now.
Meanwhile in Myanmar the military has seized power (https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-02-01-myanmars-army-seizes-power-detains-aung-san-suu-kyi-2/) (again). They're promising to hand over power to a legitimate democratically elected head of state. It's unclear what the problem was with this one other than being affiliated with the wrong party.
Edit: although I see martinuzz beat me to the punch in EastAsiapol. Maybe we'll turn this into Afripol yet!
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So how about that drought in Madagascar and the ongoing Hausa-Fulani/Yoruba Herder/Farmer conflict worsening due to climate change?
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"Never complain about rain in Africa."
Meanwhile in Ethiopia at least 20000 refugees have disappeared from camps and opposition parties claim 52000 have been killed in the civil war rebellion ethnic conflict they're busy with. The Tigrayan side seems to want to stop, but it's unclear if the majority government actually will, with the president decreasingly relying on advisors and increasingly acting on instinct and his personal rulership philosophy, not something that's ever gone wrong before.
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A month later in Ethiopia:
Ethiopian government: "There are no Eritreans in Tigray."
Eritrean government: "There are no Eritreans in Tigray."
Everyone in Tigray: "Someone please stop these Eritrean soldiers committing war crimes."
I guess the Ethiopian government still wants to grind Tigray's face in the dirt some more.
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-03-04-u-n-u-s-demand-eritrean-troops-leave-ethiopias-tigray-region/
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The European Union to consider targeted sanctions against Eritrean individuals accused of carrying out war crimes in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, Ethiopian officials respond by asking u avin a giggle m8? (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu-to-propose-targeted-eritrea-sanctions-over-ethiopia-conflict/ar-BB1ePPxy)
Meanwhile in Madagascar, India is sending a relief shipment to aid drought-stricken Madagascar which is experiencing famine caused by crop failure (https://www.foreignbrief.com/daily-news/indian-drought-relief-to-arrive-in-madagascar/). Someone is doing something!
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I really don't understand what Ethiopia is doing, unless this is just punishment against Tigray. I can't imagine they'd let Eritrea do whatever they like in an effort to prevent the renewed outbreak of war, which is the only meaningful alternative I see.
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I really don't understand what Ethiopia is doing, unless this is just punishment against Tigray. I can't imagine they'd let Eritrea do whatever they like in an effort to prevent the renewed outbreak of war, which is the only meaningful alternative I see.
The UN suspects that Ethiopia and Eritrea are only loose allies, and that Ethiopia either doesn't care or is unable to influence what the Eritreans do in Tigray at all (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/un-ethiopia-may-not-have-control-of-a-large-part-of-tigray-ethiopia-un-eritrea-mark-lowcock-government-b1797612.html)
Sounds like local commanders doing just whatever the hell they want
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There have been gossips about (more) peace between India and Pakistan and many hints by the pakistani government in news too plus there have been no ceasefire violations on the LOC for some time. While that would be a very pleasant thing in these nations' favour and more so for kashmiri people, I wonder if it is possible with how much both countries' people have been indoctrinated with getting whole of kashmir.
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China telling other countries to stop accepting the BNO passport for Hong Kongers, most of the world disregards this (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-hongkong-security-passports-exclusive/exclusive-hong-kong-tells-foreign-governments-to-stop-accepting-special-british-passport-idUSKBN2BH0PJ)
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I like this The Guardian youtube video:
How British colonialism increased diabetes in south Asians | It's Complicated
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Qv7zZBxq8
I found really informative to learn how bad British rule was:
During the 89 years of official British colonial rule over the Indian subcontinent, known as the British Raj, there were approximately 25 major famines. Which killed at least 60 million Indians.
It was also cool to learn about epigenetics.