Bay 12 Games Forum

Finally... => General Discussion => Topic started by: Teneb on March 22, 2016, 09:10:17 pm

Title: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Teneb on March 22, 2016, 09:10:17 pm
Alternative titles: The OTHER Ameripol Thread; The South of the Border Wall Politics Thread; Everyone Forgets About This Thread
Anyway, before anything else the rules:
-Don't break forum rules.
-Don't attempt to start flame wars.
-Don't do personal attacks.
-Don't condone atrocities.
-Snip quote pyramids since the forum tends to act up when big ones are created. Also we're not Aztecs, come on.
-Try to keep the discussion about politics.
-Goofing around, as long as it doesn't cross over to being offensive, is ok.
-America is a continent.

Links to other polithreads: Glorious DPRK (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=123671.0), USA (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=162538.0), Middle East (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=141977.0), East Europe (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=153622.0), European Union (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=155469.0), East Asia (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.0), Australia and more Asia (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=124253.0).

Discussing historical events is ok, as are current ones. If things start to heat up, I WILL lock the thread for a while until everyone becomes chill again. Please, let's not get the thread locked like the various Europol threads of yore. Ideological derails are also OK as long as people remain civil.

There was some massive wall here but fuck it nobody read it anyway. LAmerica best America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: RedKing on March 22, 2016, 10:08:53 pm
You forgot my East Asia thread (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.msg5211887#msg5211887).  :P

(Which is totes okay, I forget it too for the most part.)  :-[
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 22, 2016, 10:10:42 pm
You forgot my East Asia thread (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.msg5211887#msg5211887).  :P

(Which is totes okay, I forget it too for the most part.)  :-[
Shush. We've always been at war with Eastasia. There's no more to discuss in that regard
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: Teneb on March 22, 2016, 10:11:11 pm
You forgot my East Asia thread (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=138058.msg5211887#msg5211887).  :P

(Which is totes okay, I forget it too for the most part.)  :-[
I thought there was one, but I couldn't find it so I thought it got deleted by the Toad for some reason or other. Link up there, in case people care.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: RedKing on March 22, 2016, 10:12:23 pm
Gracias. (And yes, I know...that's Spanish, not Portuguese. I never has into Portuguese.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: Shadowlord on March 22, 2016, 10:16:47 pm
Now Canada's going to feel left out  :(
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: Magistrum on March 22, 2016, 10:34:25 pm
Thanks for acknowledging that we speak Portuguese in Brazil... I mean, it's only in America that you think that. Really. I have never spoken to a single Japanese, Russian, French, Spanish, Portuguese, British, German or Swedish that thought we spoke Spanish... What is wrong with America? Are the schools that bad? Come on, Brazil is gigantic.

Anyways, would like to comment that, while it has some political affiliations, our media is very reputable. Omission may happen, but lies are not to be told.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: RedKing on March 22, 2016, 11:14:59 pm
Meh, I think it's just a "everyone to the South speaks Spanish" generalization, reinforced by the fact that relatively few Brazilians migrate to the US, compared to all the other Central and South American nationalities that do speak Spanish.

I'm sure all the Olympics coverage this summer will constantly point out this "fun fact" about Brazil.

Speaking of which, how is the impending Olympics being viewed in Brazil? I've heard it's been unpopular in areas that have been heavily impacted by the construction.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: xxseuzxx on March 22, 2016, 11:15:58 pm
Greetings from Chile ,we have massive rises in violent crime, communist spawned again to go on riots and we also got hostile mentally retarded pyromaniacs on the south,yet the government refuses to call it terrorism,even if they burn farms and murder.

Why when we get socialists they always become comunists and destroy any development we have manages to slowly gain?

Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: smirk on March 22, 2016, 11:18:04 pm
Now Canada's going to feel left out  :(
Cañada. Problem solved.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: Culise on November 26, 2016, 12:59:50 am
With some dredging, I believe this is the most recent Latin American mega-thread.  So, without further ado: Cuba's Fidel Castro, former president, dies aged 90 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38114953).  It was confirmed by Cuban state television, but no further information at the time of the announcement.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread - Take 2: Carwash Edition
Post by: Guardian G.I. on November 26, 2016, 07:31:15 am
With some dredging, I believe this is the most recent Latin American mega-thread.  So, without further ado: Cuba's Fidel Castro, former president, dies aged 90 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38114953).  It was confirmed by Cuban state television, but no further information at the time of the announcement.
He survived hundreds of assassination attempts... but he was powerless before the wrath of 2016.

RIP, hopefully things will be better for Cubans after his departure.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 26, 2016, 07:37:29 am
He had been retired from active politics for the last 8 years
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Sergarr on November 26, 2016, 07:37:44 am
Wasn't he, like, the last Cold War politician that was still alive? At least, the last prominent one.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Harry Baldman on November 26, 2016, 07:46:59 am
Gorbachev is still kicking if he counts, as is Jimmy Carter, Henry Kissinger and a whole bunch of other names.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Sergarr on November 26, 2016, 07:49:58 am
Ohhhh yeah, forgot about the USSR/USA ones.

But outside of those, I think he was the last one. Not that I know much about them...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: smjjames on November 26, 2016, 09:45:45 am
Technically there's the rest of the Castro regime.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: TempAcc on November 26, 2016, 10:30:40 am
(removed)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 26, 2016, 10:56:31 am
 ::)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: x2yzh9 on November 26, 2016, 11:41:58 am
Well, quite frankly if this is the scenario, then one would likely anticipate a power struggle to follow suit, with castro being dead and whatnot, correct?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Sergarr on November 26, 2016, 12:01:54 pm
Well, quite frankly if this is the scenario, then one would likely anticipate a power struggle to follow suit, with castro being dead and whatnot, correct?
He was retired for the past 8 years, so I think not really, no.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: smjjames on November 26, 2016, 12:07:37 pm
Well, quite frankly if this is the scenario, then one would likely anticipate a power struggle to follow suit, with castro being dead and whatnot, correct?
He was retired for the past 8 years, so I think not really, no.

Yeah, Raul Castro (who's 85) has taken over as leader for the past 8 years. I read somewhere that he was going to step down at the end of his term (whenever that is) and allow elections, but nothing's a given (or guarantee) with a dictatorship.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Radsoc on November 26, 2016, 12:34:48 pm
There have been legit elections all the time.

My hat off to a true legend, who now joins the ranks of giants. The struggle continues.

Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Kot on November 26, 2016, 12:41:00 pm
A lot of Polish media is actually talking about Castro in positive light.
Huh.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Sergarr on November 26, 2016, 12:43:47 pm
A lot of Polish media is actually talking about Castro in positive light.
Huh.
DIRTY POLISH COMMIES

seriously Poland is the very last nation I'd expect to talk about a pro-USSR Communist leader positively what is even happening
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Kot on November 26, 2016, 12:49:58 pm
The worst I heard was that he was controversial figure and quite sarcastic article about how Fidel died out of boredom.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Radsoc on November 26, 2016, 12:54:37 pm
Fidel Castro en la Republica Popular de Polonia, junio 1972
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-8flCd0V0o
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Harry Baldman on November 26, 2016, 01:21:50 pm
Castro was a guy who had so much great press and recognizable style it pretty much didn't matter what he actually did, he'd be remembered well regardless. Kind of like the political equivalent of Snoop Dogg.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Vilanat on November 27, 2016, 04:33:58 am
There have been legit elections all the time.

My hat off to a true legend, who now joins the ranks of giants. The struggle continues.

 :D
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: TheBiggerFish on November 27, 2016, 07:07:10 am
PTW.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: TempAcc on November 27, 2016, 08:09:44 am
Ye, even if he hated homosexuals to the bone and murdered tons of people simply for not fitting into his plans for Cuba (with the volunteering help of Guevara and other similar trash), he will be remembered in a good light by idiots worldwide, because genocide is ok as long as its well presented.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 27, 2016, 08:41:39 am
It's undeniable that Fidel had a dark side. He had a bright one, too ( public healthcare and education for all, etc...)

I think he was a nuanced figure, and that is precisely why these kind of controversies arise: some people focus in one side or the other, and the thing is both have a point. At any rate it's obvious that he was a key figure in the 20th century, and one that leaves noone indifferent, at that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Sergarr on November 27, 2016, 09:24:30 am
Ye, even if he hated homosexuals to the bone and murdered tons of people simply for not fitting into his plans for Cuba (with the volunteering help of Guevara and other similar trash), he will be remembered in a good light by idiots worldwide, because genocide is ok as long as its well presented.
Yes, genocide is actually okay as long its well presented - at least for a majority of population, that is - and here's a little quiz to prove it: who was the victim of the, unarguably intentionally committed, de-facto biggest ethnic cleansing in modern era (i.e from the beginning of 20th century)?

It was Germans, after WW2. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%9350)) 12 million people were forcibly relocated from their ancestral homes, on which they and their families lived for centuries before, with estimated 500 000 dying on the way.

But because Germans were the "bad guys", it wasn't labelled as ethnic cleansing (just look at that Wikipedia's article name), and it is certainly not remembered as one, even though it fit the definition to a T.

Feelings do trump facts, TempAcc. You should remember this well, because this paradigm will only continue to grow stronger in the future years, what with the world-wide rebellion of conservative movements against the foundation of the modern liberal world that is currently ongoing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: TempAcc on November 27, 2016, 09:26:56 am
By the way, the same rethoric being used right now to enlighten fidel's "good side" could also be used (and would suit much better) hitler.

"Did what felt right at the time"

"What he did wasn't exactly illegal at his time"

"His background made it inevitable"

"He had the hopes of millions backing him"

"He had a darker side but did good things also"

"He had the initiative to do something when he felt his nation was at peril"

So yea, if people want to masturbate to dead dictators, hey, I'm not one to question anyone's fetishes, lel.
What I'm saying is, regardless of what anyone might have done to his people or himself, that does absolutely nothing to justify his action. An injustice doesn't correct another injustice, and such actions are not deserving of respect.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Kot on November 27, 2016, 09:34:26 am
Spoiler: Heh. (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: TheBiggerFish on November 27, 2016, 09:42:48 am
Spoiler: Heh. (click to show/hide)
Ohhhh, wow.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Reelya on November 27, 2016, 08:15:12 pm
A lot of articles are talking about the "abject poverty" that Cuba was in due to Castro. The problem with that narrative is a little thing called "checkable facts", such as the World Bank's calculations on GDP per capita vs cost of living (which is the most accurate you're going to get on poverty).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Trinidad and Tobago, ~$32K
Saint Kitts and Nevis ~$24K
Antigua and Barbuda    ~$23K
Panama $22K
Cuba ~$20K
Suriname    $17K
Barbados $16K
Costa Rica $15K
Brazil $15K
World $15K
Dominican Republic $14k
Colombia $13K
Grenada $13K

So, not only is in the top 5 nations in the Caribbean for GDP per capita, they're actually above the world average in terms of cost of living vs income. They're also doing a lot better per person that "success stories" such as Brazil and (favorite of the right wing capitalists) Colombia.

Maybe the journalists are defining "abject poverty" some other way, that includes Cuba but somehow excludes a large number of countries with lower wages and higher prices, but it's hard to see how that could work.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Kot on November 27, 2016, 08:31:00 pm
Castro was a leader of Communist country with all it's pros and cons. And, in comprasion to many other Communist leaders, he did a pretty good job actually. His country still standing, unlike Soviet Russia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 27, 2016, 08:41:53 pm
I've been to Cuba. And not on a guided visit, mind you, we went off the tour and walked around the less-touristical areas of Havana, had lunch in the fast-food restaurants where Cuban workers do.  All in all, it was neither as dark and poor as conservative pundits like to preach, nor as pretty as some apologetics would paint it. Many buildings were poorly conserved, and you did see poverty, though not misery (or "abject poverty"). If I had to make a comparison, it oddly reminded me of Lisbon in the late eighties.


I think I have pics around from that trip, in one of my hard-drives....


Castro was a leader of Communist country with all it's pros and cons. And, in comprasion to many other Communist leaders, he did a pretty good job actually.
Yeah, pretty much this. He was a complex character, and had both virtues and flaws.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Reelya on November 27, 2016, 08:42:10 pm
i wrote in another thread about how the coverage of the problems with Communism is heavily distorted. Sure, there were problems but they tend to be wildly different to the ones that the free-market obsessed corporate media want to tell you about.

e.g. the "long queues" in Russia in the 1970s and TV footage of shops with nothing but "plastic buckets" etc left, is meant to tell us that central planning doesn't work, as they under-produced needed things and over-produced buckets. So it gets turned into a simplistic "capitalism is the answer!" mantra when the real event was actually about different government responses to externally-caused inflation, and how they can backfire. What actually happened in Russia is this:

OPEC raised the price of oil (AKA the 1973 oil crisis), this causes the Russian currency to devalue, as at the time they were a big oil importer. this caused strong inflation. The government was worried the inflation would erode popular support, so they implemented price controls. But the currency was still devaluing, so store-bought goods became ridiculously cheap. People started hoarding goods, which causes shortages in the shops. This then lead to a black market, and people hoarded even more. Eventually, everything with black market resale value was out of stock. The "plastic buckets" etc were the only things left in shops not because they "over-produced" buckets, but because people don't hoard stuff like buckets, not matter how cheap they are.

Obviously I'm only skimming the surface of the events, but what really happened was a much more interesting and complex chain of events that teaches you something about real economic impacts of decisions, and human behavior, compared to the knee-jerk "capitalism rocks!" version. Price controls aren't a specifically "communist" thing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: Teneb on November 27, 2016, 08:47:11 pm
I think one of the main problems with Castro is that people either see the good things he did, or the bad things. Never both. He created the best health system on the planet. He also mass-executed anyone who went against him, especially when he was still consolidating his power.

It's really easy to bash him as literally Hitler, or sing his praises as you canonize him. It's way harder to take everything into account and decide how the hell you handle the memory of a person who transformed his nation from what was basically an island casino for rich american tourists into a place where you could get the best healthcare and education on the planet... while killing a whole lot of innocent and not-so-innocent people on the way.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: misko27 on November 27, 2016, 08:48:22 pm
It was Germans, after WW2. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_and_expulsion_of_Germans_(1944%E2%80%9350)) 12 million people were forcibly relocated from their ancestral homes, on which they and their families lived for centuries before, with estimated 500 000 dying on the way.
The problem is that your definition of Ethnic Cleansing is specific to the point of uselessness. Genocide is very much a form of ethnic cleansing, and under that definition you are very much wrong: comparing 12 million jews and Slavs killed in the Holocaust with 12 million germans relocated does not make one's heart go out to the poor germans.

Of course everything is Austria's fault (Österreich Unter Alles), but that is neither here nor there.
Spoiler: Heh. (click to show/hide)
My mother already showed this meme to me, and its punchline was a little better ("Fidel: Adios").
Yeah, Raul Castro (who's 85) has taken over as leader for the past 8 years. I read somewhere that he was going to step down at the end of his term (whenever that is) and allow elections, but nothing's a given (or guarantee) with a dictatorship.
2018 is when he pledges to step down. For what it's worth, Raul's son Alejandro Castro Espín (he's no liberal, but it's speculated he represented Cuba in the agreement with the US) seems most likely to have the biggest role in the new government, but no one knows whether it will be a dictatorship, a coalition, or something else. Even just guessing Raul's son is just that: a guess, based on what we know. Raul's daughter, Mariela Castro Espin, also seems likely to have some influence; she's a sexologist and a defender of LGBT rights, and cast one of the few no votes Cuba's rubber-stamp parliament has ever seen whne she opposed a labor law bill for insufficiently strong protections for LGBT rights. Beyond that we have only speculation.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: smjjames on November 27, 2016, 09:08:23 pm
The quotes got messed up on the last one Misko, just letting you know.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: ChairmanPoo on November 27, 2016, 09:13:06 pm
For what I've heard the current VP is a more likely successor...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: RIP Fidel's Beard
Post by: misko27 on November 27, 2016, 09:16:08 pm
The quotes got messed up on the last one Misko, just letting you know.
fixed
For what I've heard the current VP is a more likely successor...
My source indicated that he was regarded as President in waiting, yes; should have mentioned that, but couldn't remember his name. My bit about Castro's kids was only to point to people who might have a big part in the new government.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: scriver on November 28, 2016, 12:54:16 am
This is a formal request to include Quebec in the Latinomerican sphere. It is the only right thing!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Max™ on November 28, 2016, 01:23:40 am
Quebec is just that piece of the Ameripol hat that tries to slip away and smoke weed with Europol behind our ear.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Teneb on November 28, 2016, 08:42:36 am
This is a formal request to include Quebec in the Latinomerican sphere. It is the only right thing!
Quebec can be an honorary member if it promises to behave and not sneak out at night with that boy Trump from next door.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Kot on November 28, 2016, 08:50:53 am
I kinda think of Castro as a decent Tropico player - stuff he does is at best questionable, but most of people live relatively good lifes.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 01, 2016, 08:29:53 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-01/colombian-congress-passes-peace-deal-with-farc/8083778

Well the current Colombian government finally signed a peace deal with FARC. The opposition, headed by previous virtual dictator President Uribe (2002-2010) walked out in disgust. That might make more sense when you start to realize just how much corrupt murderous shit Uribe is linked to, and how the civil war is the perfect cover to get away with all that shit. Uribe makes Duterte look like Ghandi in comparison. You just didn't hear about him because he was a huge American-flag-waver for Bush's War on Terror.

Just be aware that the below stuff is only the tip of the iceberg that I was able to google really quickly.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Sergius on December 04, 2016, 07:56:45 pm
PTW, as I live in Latin America and I guess I should be informed about stuff about Latin America, or something.

Also, heads up, one of the 5 posts following this one, I will find extremely offensive. Which one, will be decided at random.

I think I should contribute to the thread. So: something about Fidel and old cars.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 04, 2016, 11:30:18 pm
Well, here's something for fodder.  Mercosur recently suspended Venezuela's membership due to concerns over trade and human rights issues (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38181198).  Venezuela, naturally, rejects any authority by Mercosur to suspend Venezuela for failing to incorporate the aforementioned requirements for apparently some 130 trade and human rights norms into national law, terming it a coup within Mercosur.  This is somewhat amusing considering its own accession to Mercosur in the first place took place in 2012 during the temporary suspension of Paraguay (the key objectors to its original entry) on democratic grounds (specifically, denouncing the impeachment of Fernando Lugo, which, while legal and constitutional, took place under what was regarded as reasons of highly dubious merit under an unusually-accelerated time frame - the entire process took two days from initial notification to the final vote). 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 12:49:42 am
It is political, because human rights are far worse in Colombia, which was never suspended.

Do you also notice how every article about Venezuela specifies vague "human rights abuses" but they never cite any actual information about what those entail? The BBC has has an anti-Chavez thing for at least 15 years too.

Well lets go to Human Rights Watch where they distill down the worst of the worst abuses:
https://www.hrw.org/americas/venezuela

Quote
have enabled the government to intimidate, censor, and prosecute its critics, leading to increasing levels of self-censorship. Leading opposition politicians have been arbitrarily arrested, prosecuted, convicted, and barred from running for office.
So the abuses in Venezuela all happen via legal means: words, lawsuits, etc. There are some police abuses mentioned next, but those existed decades before the socialists even came to power, and most of the mayors/state governments who control the police are right-wing anyway.

Many of the "arbitrary" arrests have been for corruption (and involve politicians from both sides), or involve people who had been supporters of the military coup against the elected government in 2002. Basically, I think if you supported a fascist takeover then you should sort of expect to get a bit of shit afterwards: the specific charges might be trumped up, but it's not quite "arbitrary".

What is clearly lacking from this is any "disappeared" people or assassinations. Basically there's zero evidence of anyone being knocked off in Venezuela for political reasons. Compare that to Colombia:

https://www.hrw.org/americas/colombia
Quote
Army brigades engaged in the systematic execution of thousands of civilians across Colombia between 2002 and 2008. Human rights defenders, trade unionists, journalists, indigenous and Afro-Colombian leaders, and other community activists face death threats and violence, but perpetrators are rarely held accountable.

BTW, it looks like price controls were the sole cause of the supply shortages in Venezuela recently. They lifted the controls in some towns and the stores instantly refilled with goods. Basically, that's the same anti-inflation policy the soviets tried in 1973 that lead to the queues (note that America had gasoline queues due to rationing at the same time).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Egan_BW on December 05, 2016, 01:36:44 am
Also, heads up, one of the 5 posts following this one, I will find extremely offensive. Which one, will be decided at random.
This one!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: TheDarkStar on December 05, 2016, 01:43:16 am
Also, heads up, one of the 5 posts following this one, I will find extremely offensive. Which one, will be decided at random.
This one!
This post is 100% guaranteed to be more offensive to people who use the username Sergius.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Egan_BW on December 05, 2016, 01:49:51 am
Also, heads up, one of the 5 posts following this one, I will find extremely offensive. Which one, will be decided at random.
This one!
This post is 100% guaranteed to be more offensive to people who use the username Sergius.
Hahaha! I can play the odds!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 07:20:17 am
It is political, because human rights are far worse in Colombia, which was never suspended.

Do you also notice how every article about Venezuela specifies vague "human rights abuses" but they never cite any actual information about what those entail? The BBC has has an anti-Chavez thing for at least 15 years too.

Well lets go to Human Rights Watch where they distill down the worst of the worst abuses:
https://www.hrw.org/americas/venezuela

Quote
have enabled the government to intimidate, censor, and prosecute its critics, leading to increasing levels of self-censorship. Leading opposition politicians have been arbitrarily arrested, prosecuted, convicted, and barred from running for office.
So the abuses in Venezuela all happen via legal means: words, lawsuits, etc. There are some police abuses mentioned next, but those existed decades before the socialists even came to power, and most of the mayors/state governments who control the police are right-wing anyway.

Many of the "arbitrary" arrests have been for corruption (and involve politicians from both sides), or involve people who had been supporters of the military coup against the elected government in 2002. Basically, I think if you supported a fascist takeover then you should sort of expect to get a bit of shit afterwards: the specific charges might be trumped up, but it's not quite "arbitrary".

What is clearly lacking from this is any "disappeared" people or assassinations. Basically there's zero evidence of anyone being knocked off in Venezuela for political reasons. Compare that to Colombia:

https://www.hrw.org/americas/colombia
Quote
Army brigades engaged in the systematic execution of thousands of civilians across Colombia between 2002 and 2008. Human rights defenders, trade unionists, journalists, indigenous and Afro-Colombian leaders, and other community activists face death threats and violence, but perpetrators are rarely held accountable.

BTW, it looks like price controls were the sole cause of the supply shortages in Venezuela recently. They lifted the controls in some towns and the stores instantly refilled with goods. Basically, that's the same anti-inflation policy the soviets tried in 1973 that lead to the queues (note that America had gasoline queues due to rationing at the same time).
Honestly, I suspect it's not just politics, though that does play a major role (note that the suspension didn't go through until after recent Brazil's change in President).  Where Maduro and Chavez erred is in not implementing the free trade and and investment legal requirements; a big reason why Argentina (which was conveniently "pro-Chavez before they were against," to mutilate the turn of phrase) and Brazil brought Venezuela in was for the bottom line (cheap market for agricultural goods; plenty of oil for leverage in trade negotiations abroad), and one doesn't threaten the bottom line.  Given the economic unrest, Venezuela shifted from an economic asset to a liability.  Arguably, Venezuela's suspension actually a wee bit less political than some suspensions in the past (Paraguay, as I noted already, which conveniently occurred at the right moment to slide Venezuela right in), though that doesn't say much at all. 

Also, another reason why Colombia was never suspended actually appears to be much simpler: Colombia is not and was never a full member of the Mercosur block, and as an associate member is not held to the same moral standards as full members such as Venezuela as far as I can tell. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 07:27:16 am
The main reason for the fallout seems to be that the Venezuelan-friendly governments that let them into Mercosur got replaced by right-wing governments in Brazil and Paraguay.

Venezuela was only admitted to Mercosur in 2012, so if the other members had a problem with the Venezuelan Socialists that should have been obvious back then. They're kicking them out due to partisan politics, "human rights abuses" is the cover. Nothing's actually changed since they were admitted.

For rerference, in Brazil the cops kill people:
https://www.hrw.org/americas/brazil
Quote
Chronic human rights problems plague Brazil, including unlawful police killings and torture and ill-treatment of detainees. Many Brazilian prisons and jails are severely overcrowded, and the lack of adequate state control within the prison grounds leaves inmates vulnerable to violence and recruitment by gangs. Other human rights problems include degrading and abusive working conditions, violence against rural activists and indigenous people involved in conflicts over land, and killings of journalists and bloggers because of their work.

Yes, the people accusing Venezuela of human rights abuse have active death squads

Whereas if you read the Venezuela HRW report again it's that "journalists are criticized and must self-censor" and that opposition people get charged with crimes and go to court. No deaths, no state-sanctioned murder squads.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 07:33:18 am
Actually, a lot has changed with Venezuela's side of things on the economic side of things; inflation and civil unrest weren't nearly as bad in 2012 as they are today (unless you're arguing that at least 180% inflation according to official, massaged government numbers (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38201575) back in 2015 is business as usual).  That's the reason I suspect Argentina, which you'll note is absent from both of our lists of government shifts (I did cite Brazil's shift right as well, you'll note, and while Paraguay did indeed shift, the Colorados were already being a spoiler even in the opposition, so they were always consistent in that; that's why Paraguay's brief suspension was necessary for Venezuelan entry), was willing to go along with the suspension.  Argentina accepted it because they saw Venezuela as a market for food sales.  They now accepted suspension because they don't, or rather, they don't see it as worth propping up economically when Venezuela won't give as well as take. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 07:38:00 am
Brazil has active death squads however, read Human Rights Watch's summary. Then compare the worst that's mentioned for Venezuela. They don't even hint at targeted killings against dissidents being a thing in Venezuela, unlike Brazil.

So the whole "human rights" angle is bullshit politics.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 07:39:25 am
Brazil has active death squads however, read Human Rights Watch's summary. Then compare the worst that's mentioned for Venezuela. They don't even hint at targeted killings against dissidents being a thing in Venezuela, unlike Brazil.

So the whole "human rights" angle is bullshit politics.
Err, yes?  I just don't agree that the entire suspension process is "bullshit politics," nor do I believe that Colombia's status as an associate member somehow proves that Venezuela's suspension as a full member is somehow proof of this.  I believe there are actual, pragmatic reasons for the suspension.  Human rights are just a fig leaf, smoke to mask the economic practicalities. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 07:42:01 am
Ironically, the average inflation for Brazil from 1980-now is 370%

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi

Although a lot of the claims about how Venezuela's economy is doing don't seem to be born out by actual statistics. Yes, inflation is high, but some articles were claiming people only makes $100 a month. but that's strongly contradicted by World Bank figures which suggest that Venezuela has a higher GDP per Capita than nearby regions such as Brazil.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 07:51:07 am
Ironically, the average inflation for Brazil from 1980-now is 370%

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi
I choose to believe you aren't being deliberately disingenuous here, but including a data point of 6821.31% that predates the beginning of Mercosur is, for obvious reasons, going to skew the data quite a bit.  Besides that, it's just tacky.  You'll note that, after the Real Plan (which to be fair took place three years after the start of Mercosur), Brazilian inflation has been much more consistent, and consistently low at that, at least in relative terms. (EDIT) Moreover, the four countries that entered into Mercosur entered into it knowing Brazil's inflationary state already; by contrast, Venezuela's economic deficiencies only became clear after.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Teneb on December 05, 2016, 07:55:11 am
The human rights stuff is most definitely there to make the suspension look better. Right now, Venezuela is a shithole. Brasil's (and Argentina's) government, no matter if left or right, only really cares about Venezuela's economical side. Which, right now, is in deep shit. Maduro is going full Glorious Leader #2, and that is never good for business.. Chavez may have been reprehensible in many ways, but he smart enough to not try what his successor is doing right now.

Paraguay's sidelining, meanwhile, was all political. The coup that happened there removed a leader that was pro-Brasil/Argentina and put in one that wasn't.
Fora Temer
Ironically, the average inflation for Brazil from 1980-now is 370%

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi
I choose to believe you aren't being deliberately disingenuous here, but including a data point of 6821.31% that predates the beginning of Mercosur is, for obvious reasons, going to skew the data quite a bit.  Besides that, it's just tacky.  You'll note that, after the Real Plan (which to be fair took place three years after the start of Mercosur), Brazilian inflation has been much more consistent, and consistently low at that, at least in relative terms. (EDIT) Moreover, the four countries that entered into Mercosur entered into it knowing Brazil's inflationary state already; by contrast, Venezuela's economic deficiencies only became clear after.
Yeah, the whole point of the Real was to keep inflation in line, in which it was a clear success.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 07:56:11 am
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/gdp-per-capita

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp-per-capita

As you can see, Venezuela took a steep cut in GDP per capita in 2016. But Brazil suffered the exact same thing at the exact same time. So whatever is going on that cut into Venezuelan GDP per capita, Brazil are just about the last people who have the right to point the finger, on that or on human rights.

Venezuelans still have higher GDP per capita than Brazil despite the drops. So the thing is, they never give you the full picture. Venezuela is on the high side of income in South America, not the low side. Brazil is more of a shit-hole, more poverty. They just don't tell you about it constantly. Here's
"successful" Colombia's GDP per capital, it didn't suffer a fall like Brazil and Venezuela did, but they only make about 60% what those countries earn:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/gdp-per-capita

So this is more about politics, not economics. The economics of Venezuela is pretty average: some good things, some bad things, compared to their neighbours. The same for human rights: though they have less recorded political killings than "successful" countries like Colombia and Brazil, which have much more political violence and MORE poverty. So yes, it is all about politics here.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 08:12:33 am
. Chavez may have been reprehensible in many ways, but he smart enough to not try what his successor is doing right now.

How was Chavez reprehensible? He kept inflation WAY down compared to the people before him, growth was pretty high, and his government killed WAY less people (none) than his predecessors.

I mean, you might have been influenced because of all the articles that have hammered home "chavez is a  bad guy" when in fact, there's basically no specifics people can ever point to, to show what bad things Chavez is supposed to have done.

He didn't like GS Bush's War on Terror. That's why they tell you how "reprehensible" he is. Meanwhile your own government was cheering on Mr Death Squad Uribe in Colombia, whom people don't think is "reprehensible" because the American media either praised him or ignored him.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Teneb on December 05, 2016, 08:27:53 am
Yeah, okay, I spoke out of my backside there. At least this made me rethink the situation. I'd like to say, though, that in no way I believe my government, current or previous, is morally or ethically good. They will cheer on any SA leader who they believe they can profit from, and try to screw over the rest.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 08:56:15 am
One example of a story that made the rounds was about the army of socialist bikers who apparently ruled the streets in Venezuela, and were Chavez's personal army. That sounds scary, but then you think, when was the last time you met one socialist biker, let alone an entire army of them. Well someone went and videoed them in all their glory. It turns out there were "bikers" except they were  skinny college kids on motor scooters and 250cc bikes, usually with their girlfriend on the back waving the national flag, and the main weapon they wielded was the mobile phone.

Yet the journalist still managed to tell a tale how they were a secret army that would be made an official wing of the Venezuelan army (hint: it never happened: there's still no Venezuelan army of liberals on scooters). Basically what you heard and what you saw were 180 degrees apart, and this is sort of average reporting on Venezuela. The mainstream media in Venezuelas use tactics extremely similar to the alt-right in America does against Obama, Chavez and Obama even got the exact same mash-ups, e.g. merging their faces with Osama Bin Laden and the like, which makes 0% sense in either case.

The most "questionable" thing Chavez did was try and overthrow the Venezuelan government in 1992. But then you read about the 1989 Caracazo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caracazo) in which the government suspended the constitution and killed somewhere between a few hundred and a few thousand protestors against their right-wing economic agenda (which was a "surprise" reform that contradicted their election promises). Chavez's overthrow attempt was in response to the massacres the then-government had conducted.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 08:58:57 am
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/gdp-per-capita

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp-per-capita

As you can see, Venezuela took a steep cut in GDP per capita in 2016. But Brazil suffered the exact same thing at the exact same time. So whatever is going on that cut into Venezuelan GDP per capita, Brazil are just about the last people who have the right to point the finger, on that or on human rights.

Venezuelans still have higher GDP per capita than Brazil despite the drops. So the thing is, they never give you the full picture. Venezuela is on the high side of income in South America, not the low side. Brazil is more of a shit-hole, more poverty. They just don't tell you about it constantly. Here's
"successful" Colombia's GDP per capital, it didn't suffer a fall like Brazil and Venezuela did, but they only make about 60% what those countries earn:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/gdp-per-capita

So this is more about politics, not economics. The economics of Venezuela is pretty average: some good things, some bad things, compared to their neighbours. The same for human rights: though they have less recorded political killings than "successful" countries like Colombia and Brazil, which have much more political violence and MORE poverty. So yes, it is all about politics here.
It's not just about GDP per capita; that's more useful to determine average standards of living (and that is more useful if calculated in terms of purchasing power parity rather than nominal figures, at least for domestic consumption).  If it were, China would be considered to have an economy worse than St. Lucia or, given that your site appears to be using World Bank nominal figures rather than IMF figures or PPP, Lebanon.  Your own site agrees with me that Venezuela's economy is less powerful than Brazil's due to sheer mass. 

I'm also confused why you keep harping on Colombia; again, it's not a full member of Mercosur.  It is irrelevant to which full members of Mercosur get suspended or not. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 09:09:46 am
If you're going to bring up PPP as if it contradicts the argument then you should look up the figures for that, which isn't hard. Venezuela still beats out Brazil and Colombia on that measure. So if they're that systematically impoverished, as the mainstream media makes out, you have to ask why no mainstream source has data that supports that idea. And if the "data is wrong" then what is the basis of the claims? In other words the claims are either flat-out wrong, or they're purely anecdotal claims not based on credible data sources.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/gdp-per-capita-ppp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp-per-capita-ppp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/gdp-per-capita-ppp

I mention Colombia and Brazil because those two nations along with Venezuela are large and nearby, they're the best comparative measure of whether Venezuela is a basketcase, or average for the region. If you're going to make an argument that things are especially bad in Venezuela due to some specific quality that they have, then the litmus test is that they are indeed worse at that thing than their similarly-developed neighbors.

Colombia is noteworthy, because it has a population similar-sized to Venezuela, and is often mentioned as being economically and democratically successful by the American media (https://www.google.com.au/search?q=colombia+economic+success+story&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-ab&gfe_rd=cr&ei=zXRFWKGoIs_u8weC55D4Dw) in contrast to how they cover Venezuela, despite virtually everything being more horrible in Colombia (higher poverty, mass murders by state actors).

similarly, you might say "well Venezuela has more poverty" but you can check that too. Colombia drooped from 44% to 32% poverty 2004-2014: 12% down in 10 years.
http://colombiareports.com/poverty-levels-continue-fall-colombia-according-government-stats/
Poverty went down from 50% of the population before Chavez, to about 30% in 2013: 20% down in 15 years. So Venezuela saw bigger poverty reductions than Colombia.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/venezuela/overview

As for inequality:
Quote from: world bank on venezuela
Inequality also decreased, as reflected in the decrease in the Gini Index, from 0.49 in 1998 to 0.40 in 2012, among the lowest rates in the region.
Meanwhile inequality in Colombia has skyrocketed. Their Gini Coefficient is 0.535, one of the highest in the world.
http://colombiareports.com/colombia-latin-americas-2nd-unequal-country-honduras/

Some media outlets are trying to claim that Venezuela has an 80% poverty rate. but that's just plain impossible. They have one of the highest GDP per capita of nearby countries, and one of the lowest rates of income inequality. It's just not credible or good journalism to cite sensationalist stuff like 80% poverty because there are no credible economic sources that back that up, nor is it credible given the World Banks 2013 figures that we have on record.

~~~
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 09:55:08 am
Sorry for the double post, this will be the last one. I just wanted to highlight the type of story they run about Venezuela doom and gloom, and how even the most cursory checking of factual independent sources reveals how much bullshit there is:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/steak-is-one-more-thing-that-s-disappearing-in-venezuela
Quote
Steak Is One More Thing That's Disappearing in Venezuela
A "way of life" is fading in the country's economic crisis

This year, steak-loving Venezuela has gone from being the world's second-biggest cattle importer to bringing in almost none, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. A drop of 127,000 cows so far this year.

Oh yes, a "way of life" is going away because of the socialists. Except for the fact that beef consumption is massively higher than it was before Chavez was even elected:

http://beef2live.com/story-venezuela-beef-production-imports-consumption-1960-2015-0-120921
1998 - 415,000 metric tons of beef consumed
2015 - 590,000 metric tons of beef consumed, an increase of 10000 metric tons per year.

A cow is about 440 pounds of beef, from sources, which is about 200 kilos, so 1/5th of a metric ton. So 127000 cows is ~12700 metric tons. Or about 1 years worth of the increase in beef consumption in Venezuela since Chavez was elected. So instead of the 2015 level of consumption, their "way of life" has receded back to the 2014 "way of life" level of consumption.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 10:24:21 am
I didn't bring up PPP as it contradicts the argument; that was an ancillary statement on the worth of nominal GDP per capita.  It seems I lost a sentence in the final tweaks, and I apologize for that; what I brought up was the total GDP of Brazil versus the total GDP of Venezuela.  For easy reference:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/gdp
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/gdp

I will also note that I didn't say the data itself is wrong; I will state explicitly that you were and apparently still are misusing it.  As noted, using GDP per capita as per your logic, China (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-per-capita) is a worse economy than several (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/trinidad-and-tobago/gdp-per-capita) Caribbean (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/antigua-and-barbuda/gdp-per-capita) islands (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/barbados/gdp-per-capita), which what I would term a rather curious conclusion.  Perhaps it can be concluded that it is better for an individual person to live in the latter rather than the former, but it is unusual to use these data points to conclude that the economies of the latter are more powerful than the former.  Things like inequality, GDP per capita (either nominal or PPP), poverty rates, or mass murders by state actors aren't actually in themselves sole indicators of total economic power or market size.

Also, I would note that if you're using records from 2013 (which seems odd; your own site disagrees on that account), your records predate the present economic state in Venezuela and, indeed, there's a good chance they predate the death of Hugo Chavez in that year.  I didn't even think to check the date of your numbers, but that is a significant issue.  The IMF, for instance, expects Venezuelan inflation to pass 700% this year (https://www.rt.com/business/352381-imf-venezuela-inflation-gdp/); this is an order of magnitude greater than Colombia and Brazil, or even Argentina.

I'm curious, though, given your statements that Venezuela is entirely average, are you arguing that there is no crisis in Venezuela at all?  I was unaware of a need for military to take control of food shipments (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/venezuelan-army-takes-food-distribution-services-160713041510705.html), or of privation even in hospitals (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/venezuela-hospitalseconomic-crisis-160530151128000.html).  Venezuelan oil production has tanked (https://www.rt.com/business/350920-venezuela-oil-production-plunge/) compared to their peers in the production of crude, and opening the border has led to Venezuelans entering Colombia for food (https://www.rt.com/news/351747-venezuela-cross-colombia-food/), which seems odd if Colombia is such a basketcase compared to Venezuela.  My apologies if Al Jazeera and RT are Western sources, but if those are not preferred, I'm not certain which other sources you would prefer.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 10:34:40 am
Sorry mate, but that's why I specifically compared just three countries which are close to each other, and of fairly similar size. Comparing and island to the largest nation on earth of course is not going to be meaningful. Nobody would expect a small island to be as "powerful" as China, that is a non-sequiter. A country can only be judged based on success compared to similar countries. I also used the most recent numbers which are published, from each source. I did not cherry pick. But people have been constantly making the argument that "but the current figures are worse!!!" since Chavez was elected, saying if we only had the next 6-12 months of data that aren't published, then we'd realize how horrible it really is.

Ok let's look at your data. I wasn't sure what your point was, but I'm guess it's that "Brazil has more GDP". While that's true, they also have 200 million people, compared to 30 million Venezuelans. Claiming that Chavez "failed" because he didn't manage to have a small country out-produce Brazil is kinda a fucking retarded argument. I certainly hope that's not the argument you were implying, because it's d.u.m.b.

So how did Venezuela and Brazil fair relatively from 2006-2014. Real GDP increased by 200+% (tripled) in Venezuela (US $183 billion to $509 billion), which was an increase of $326 billion in total economic activity, while Brazil grew from $1107 billion to $1774 billion, which is a 60% increase, or an icrease of $667 billion, so Venezuela's GDP grew at more than triple the rate of Brazil for an 8 year period, and each Venezuelan generated additional GDP equal to 3 Brazilians.

Notably, 2014 saw a massive growth spike in Venezuelan GDP, yet weren't the media also only talking doom and gloom at that point? Was there any news telling you their economy went from $371 billion to $509 billion in a single year? That's a 37% growth rate in one year. And they didn't even report it. And you still trust them?

And these are not new "doom and gloom narratives" they've been constant, even across the times when Venezuela was objectively booming from 2006-2014.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 10:57:54 am
Sorry mate, but that's why I specifically compared just three countries which are close to each other, and of fairly similar size.

Comparing and island to the largest nation on earth of course is not going to be meaningful. Nobody would expect a small island to be as "powerful" as China, that is a non-sequiter. A country can only be judged based on success compared to similar countries.

I used the most recent numbers which are published, from each source. I did not cherry pick. But people have been using the "but the current figures are worse!!!" argument since Chavez was elected. It's been the constant claim for almost 15 years now, that if we only had the next 6-12 months of data that aren't published, then we'd realize how horrible it really is.
The problem is that GDP per capita is not used to compare the power of economies in the first place; picking nearby or distant nations has nothing to do with that.  GDP per capita is better used to track a country's standards of living.  It might be worthwhile as an indicator of market strength (EDIT: that is, the effective purchasing power of a citizen of that nation abroad), but not so much of economic strength as a whole.  The reason I bring it up as an example is because according to the superficial logic you presented in your posts, such a non-sequitur would apparently be expected.    I invite you again to make the case, contrary to the uses by others, that GDP per capita should be used instead of total GDP to describe the comparative strength of the economies of entire nations to each other.  I also ask you why GDP per capita should be uniquely useful for comparing the oil-producing Venezuela to the relatively diversified, non-oil-dependent economies of Colombia or Brazil, when the artificially-inflationary effect of oil production on GDP per capita is well-known.

I also wouldn't particularly concern myself about the constant claim for almost 15 years now; it's irrelevant, as far as I can determine.  I'm well aware of the wolf-calling by the opposition, and I am rather unconvinced to say the least of their merits as leaders, but I will note that the present inflation numbers are given in the very link I gave, if you read it.  They are *already* an order of magnitude over their peers.  If you want me to use only the particular source you've linked, and to track actual standards of living locally rather than total economic power, then I suggest the following statistics:

Food Inflation: (inflation indexed to food prices)
Venezuela (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/food-inflation): 315% (2015)
Colombia (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/food-inflation): 8.53% (2016)
Brazil (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/food-inflation): 12.41% (2016)

Inflation Rate (Consumer Price Index):
Venezuela (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/inflation-cpi): 180.9% (2015) - official Venezuelan figures; present unofficial calculations put it much higher
Colombia (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/inflation-cpi): 6.48% (2016)
Brazil (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi): 7.87% (2016)

There's a reason why news sources are reporting rising food prices and food shortages in Venezuela, even from non-Western sources; they're not lying. 

Also, just to note, not all island countries can be expected to be "better" than China: Haiti and several Pacific island nations confirm that.

EDIT: Aah.  Basic sanity check on some glitchiness on my part.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 11:37:57 am
But those food inflation figures are in their own fiat currency. Since they can print that, looking at values in raw US dollars is actually more meaningful for the overall health of an economy. e.g. if you look at minimum wage, it's kept pace with inflation, while the unemployment rate is 7.3%, which is less than the USA during their own recent crisis.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/minimum-wages
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/unemployment-rate

The main source of the inflation is actually artificial and external. It's because of the oil money, which is dependent on global oil prices. This has happened to Venezuela before.

Venezuela gets a constant stream of US dollars into the economy. When the oil price fell, less dollars come in, making dollars more scarce, pushing up their price. And the GFC created a very large sudden drop in the oil price. People then start seeing an opportunity and start hoarding dollars to make a profit. The more that gets hoarded, the faster the price goes up (artificial scarcity), and at this point the process accelerates itself without needing an external engine. The problem is that to get off that train, you need to either flood the market with US dollars to stop people hoarding it (too expensive), print more money to keep the real liquidity the same (easy but puts the problem off), or restrict the money supply (crashes the economy).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 12:05:39 pm
But those food inflation figures are in their own fiat currency. Since they can print that, looking at values in raw US dollars is actually more meaningful for the overall health of an economy. e.g. if you look at minimum wage, it's kept pace with inflation, while the unemployment rate is 7.3%, which is less than the USA during their own recent crisis.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/minimum-wages
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/unemployment-rate

The main source of the inflation is actually artificial and external. It's because of the oil money, which is dependent on global oil prices. This has happened to Venezuela before.

Venezuela gets a constant stream of US dollars into the economy. When the oil price fell, less dollars come in, making dollars more scarce, pushing up their price. And the GFC created a very large sudden drop in the oil price. People then start seeing an opportunity and start hoarding dollars to make a profit. The more that gets hoarded, the faster the price goes up (artificial scarcity), and at this point the process accelerates itself without needing an external engine. The problem is that to get off that train, you need to either flood the market with US dollars to stop people hoarding it (too expensive), print more money to keep the real liquidity the same (easy but puts the problem off), or restrict the money supply (crashes the economy).
Yes, they are in a fiat currency, but I'm not seeing a three-fold increase of minimum wage in 2015 (the most recent dates of those inflation figures) in your charts.  Without actual numbers for 2016 food- and CPI-index inflation that you would find acceptable (since apparently my numbers and sources for 2016 are not acceptable, given your complete lack of comment on them), I'm not sure I can accept your assertion that minimum wage has kept pace with inflation, rather than being well-behind it. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 12:08:14 pm
Let's check that with the hard numbers. I see reports that inflation in 2014 was ~63% and ~180% by the end of 2015.

If you look at minimum wage of jan 2014, it was 4667, that rose to 8097 by Jan 2015, and 24897 in jan 2016. 2014-2015 is therefore an increase of 73% and 2015-2016 is almost 200%.

Both wage increases exactly match the reported inflation rates for those years, so there's no "lagging" in any of the published data we can match up, so saying it's going to lag next year is speculative. They've already increased the minimum wage again by about a factor of 3.5, which matches the current years inflation estimates, so that sort of kills the idea of lagging at all, and it also kills the idea that poor people have less real money to spend, since minimum incomes have maintained the same real-adjusted level since the boom was on in 2014.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 12:22:25 pm
Indeed, I did misread the chart slightly; I mistook the January 2016 data for being later in that year. 

The other issue, which I avoided bringing up until now since you seem to ignore it every time I indicate that the numbers given are official Venezuelan figures given by their government rather than external assessments of Venezuela, is actually simple: the lie is elsewhere.  Specifically, prices for foods and consumer goods are fixed by the state, but supply is not.  This is the major issue that has resulted in the growth of a significant black market within Venezuela; there isn't enough food to sell, and with low fixed prices, people are seeing more profit in selling it on the unofficial market not seen in the data presented.  Prices don't matter if there is no food on the shelves (http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/07/faces-venezuelan-crisis-160711095246241.html) to buy.  Heck, even Venezuela itself (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/01/venezuela-government-declares-economic-emergency-160116054425863.html) doesn't pretend there is no crisis; they used the crisis as pretext to grant Maduro sweeping powers in order to solve it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 12:25:08 pm
Quote
there isn't enough food to sell

Well that's the thing. This is a misreading of the problem. Consumption of all categories of food vastly increased during the Chavez years. Supply shortages are not the cause of this.

The price controls and exchange rate mechanisms are the cause of the whole problem. They already lifted price controls in some regions, and people there are reporting the stores instantly refilled with products.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-backs-away-from-price-controls-as-citizens-go-hungry-1476475368
Quote
“Before there was nothing; now there’s everything,” said Jesús Barrios, 36, as he shopped in Maracaibo, the state capital of Zulia.

What caused shortages were misguided attempts to cap inflation, when the inflation is largely caused by the hoarding of US dollars and inefficient currency exchanges. Price caps cause the shop goods to be too cheap, so people hoard those too, or divert them straight to the black market.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 12:30:19 pm
Is there a citation for that?  I'm curious, since while it does match the expected result I would see for a cessation of price controls (that is, that the lifting of said controls would result in a restoration of supply as food shifts back from the black market to legal markets), I haven't actually heard of Venezuela actually doing such a thing anywhere.  I'd also be curious to see the effect on prices that it actually had. 

EDIT: Thank you for the citation; reading now.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 12:32:30 pm
Well it's the Wall Street Journal, which is hardly a pro-Chavez outlet.

One interesting thing is that if you look at publications aimed at investors they have a very different take on Venezuela's economy. Not "wine and roses" still, but a lot less pessimistic and more informative / level-headed. e.g.:

http://fortune.com/2014/07/22/how-to-fix-venezuelas-toubled-exchange-rate/
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 12:33:36 pm
Well it's the Wall Street Journal, which is hardly a pro-Chavez outlet.
Yes, but that's not why I was asking; there was no link at all when I responded to your post.  I've just edited my post accordingly to acknowledge its existence.

EDIT: OK, access obtained. Prices have jumped significantly compared to state market prices, as I would also have expected - rice from $0.12 to $1.80; sugar from $0.38 to $1.80, and so forth.  The article is a bit light on details on whether people can afford these price jumps; the reason a lot of people didn't go to the black market in the first place was because they couldn't afford the prices.  The article backs that up, indicating that a bag of $3.50 sugar consumes a quarter of the buyer's monthly wage and that professionals make less than $100 USD monthly.  More pertinent than the elimination on price controls in itself is also that the difference in food supply is being made up for by imports from neighboring countries, which the increased prices makes practical.  I also see that it's purely a local initiative by governors and regional military officials, and that official legislation from Maduro still makes it technically illegal.  That said, it seems that if he is indeed involving himself directly in expanding the program, that may soon change. 

The Fortune article does indeed accord well with my own thoughts on Venezuela, actually.  It only really got into trouble in the last couple two-three years, and that largely due to its heavy dependence on oil revenues (some 95% of government revenues at the time, if I recall properly) in a time of dropping oil prices.  Currency pegging (the fixing of exchange rates) in itself is not a tremendous deal-breaker; it can result in constrictions in currency flow, but that's hardly the major issue facing Venezuela right now.  Indeed, nations such as China and Montenegro do not do poorly by pegging their currencies to, respectively, the dollar and Euro (well, Montenegro actually uses the Euro directly in spite of EU complaints, but let's set that aside and treat it as a 1:1 fixed-ratio).  A rationalization of the exchange rates, if Maduro actually follows through and it's not just speculation by Fortune, and a resumption of foreign specialization could assist.  One major issue the Fortune article doesn't mention is the drop in absolute oil production by Venezuela, though, that I linked in a previous article.  That issue means that Venezuela will be a bit slower in recovering its previous share, whether you tie it to a transient phenomenon caused by the present economic situation or to the loss in expertise caused by the 2007 expropriation of two major companies during the restructuring of foreign oil holdings. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 05, 2016, 12:38:11 pm
That fortune article i posted is definitely worth reading.

Key point: almost all of the inflation has been in imported goods. Now, imports are falling rapidly - which has been labeled a doom and gloom story, predictably elsewhere. But it's good for the balance of trade. And improving the balance of trade means less dollars leaving the economy, which could ease things off.

BTW: I'd be skeptical about any particularly "OMG" predictions from the IMF. I've seen them do it a number of times. for example, back in 2008 they predicted hyperinflation from 2009-2012 for Venezuela, but inflation actually slumped to an all-time low in that period, the exact opposite of what the IMF report said would happen. Then I noticed something peculiar. They had inflation for Venezuela rounded off to exactly e.g. "36.50"% , and increasing by the same whole-number amount per year (so always something.5%, and always the exact same yearly increase). Whereas every other country in the report had figures calculated to 2 decimal places. Basically, it looked like they were just making up bullshit figures for Venezuela rather than doing any actual analysis. That's why I trust the World Bank and other institutions and not the IMF, they have produced wildly inaccurate and clearly fake "research" in the past, for political purposes.

EDIT: Btw here's the Cato Institute, claiming the IMF's Venezuela inflation figures are bullshit:
https://www.cato.org/blog/imfs-feeding-press-unreliable-inflation-figures-venezuela
Quote
I have been saving bits of misreported statistical string about Venezuela’s inflation over the past couple of months, and it has become a giant ball. The bits all come from the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook (April 2016) forecasts inflation to rise to 720 percent by the end of 2016. This number, which is nothing more than a guestimate, is now carved in stone. The media, from Bloomberg, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, to countless other ostensibly credible sources, repeats that guestimate ad nauseam.

Instead of reporting pie-in-the-sky estimates for future inflation rates in Venezuela, the press should stop worshiping at the IMF’s altar and, instead, stick to reporting current inflation rate. These are updated regularly and are available from the Johns Hopkins-Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project. The current implied annual inflation rate is 140 percent; while it is currently the world’s highest, it is well below the IMF’s oft-reported forecast of 720 percent.

Short version: IMF are lying liars who make up bullshit figures. Wait for next years inflation figures, this is the Cato Institutes data:
(https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/wp-content/uploads/chart_1.png)

That figure is based on the free-market rate for US dollars, which is a very good estimate of true inflation since dollars are stable, and almost all Venezuelan imports are priced against US dollars. So rather than escalating to 1600% or 2000% or somesuch, the rates of increase has been slowing for the last 18 months. So the true rate, according to anyone keeping track has been dropping, while the IMF estimates just jump higher and higher to nice scary-sounding round numbers. Just like they did in 2008.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Culise on December 05, 2016, 01:25:58 pm
Ah, thanks for the link to the Cato Institute as well.  I had actually seen that article, but I didn't actually click to read it because the Cato Institute is...ah, rather infamous for their right-wing libertarian political tendencies; I did not expect anything resembling a balanced statement from them.  That is a much more even-handed position than I expected, given their past support to the Venezuelan opposition.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on December 06, 2016, 01:47:34 am
It's nice when a source like that admits they got it wrong, then push the correct info, even if it contradicts their political position. e.g. the same author from Cato was sounding wardrums about Venezuela inflation back in 2015 when it was rising, but he changed his tune when it started falling and is calling out other institutions to admit that it's falling, rather than push a clearly fabricated narrative. This is the most recent article i can find about it from Cato:

https://www.cato.org/blog/venezuelas-inflation-wall-street-journals-reportage-way

Quote
International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2016 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which contains an estimate for Venezuela’s annual inflation. This report projects Venezuela’s annual inflation to average 475.8 percent for 2016, a far cry from my current estimate of 55 percent.

So, prices rose by 55% in Venezuela in 2016 (for reference the average inflation in the decade before Chavez was 52% per year, so 2016 was the exact average of what the opposition delivered), yet media are still pushing various estimates for 2016-2017 ranging from 500%, 720%, 1600% and 2000%. All of which seem to be based on unsubstantiated statements from a single organization: the IMF.

IMF's 2016 prediction wasn't just wrong, it was out by a full order of magnitude (10x) and headed in the wrong direction. This is what I'm talking about with anti-Venezuela economic hype. It's a repeated pattern where merely checking reputable data sources contradicts most of what the corporate media is telling you. For example, only yesterday IMF was telling the media it was headed to 2000% next year, despite that being 40 times higher than the actual inflation right now, which is falling:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-idUSKBN13T0MJ
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Sergius on December 06, 2016, 11:01:08 am
Also, heads up, one of the 5 posts following this one, I will find extremely offensive. Which one, will be decided at random.
This one!
This post is 100% guaranteed to be more offensive to people who use the username Sergius.
Hahaha! I can play the odds!

Using my own random algorithm in my brain, I've selected at random this post and now I'm triggered. Also technically I'm offended at 3 posts instead of one, so great job!

And now back to your regularly scheduled program...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Egan_BW on December 06, 2016, 05:51:27 pm
*Egan_BW gains one triggering point!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 06, 2016, 06:02:09 pm
roll for san loss
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Egan_BW on December 06, 2016, 06:09:48 pm
I gain 10 insanity points, and a new psychosis. Would you mind rolling on the table, LW?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 06, 2016, 06:38:14 pm
I gain 10 insanity points, and a new psychosis. Would you mind rolling on the table, LW?
/me babbles in incoherent rabid speech
* Egan_BW has gone stark raving mad!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Guardian G.I. on December 15, 2016, 04:37:09 pm
Cuba proposed the Czech Republic that it can return the 276 million USD of its sovereign debt back Tropico style - not with cash... but with rum! (https://www.yahoo.com/news/cuba-proposes-rum-pay-back-145011069.html?ref=gs)

"If that proposal becomes reality, the Czech would have enough Cuban rum for well over a century"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: martinuzz on December 15, 2016, 04:39:26 pm
But Czech beer is so much better than rum. In fact, the category of beer called 'pils' originates from it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on February 18, 2017, 03:32:00 am
http://www.news.com.au/world/south-america/ecuador-candidate-wants-julian-assange-out/news-story/1cb2a71cc5691933fcedfe75c424eb50

Quote
Mr Lasso also promised he would take a firm stance against the government of crisis-hit Venezuela, which is closely aligned with outgoing president Rafael Correa’s leftist Country Alliance Party.

Ecuador would also advocate that the Organisation of American States push for elections in the fellow OPEC nation, Mr Lasso said.

Heh, this is the sort of thing you get when the internatinal corporate media doesn't like you. While Venezuela has a lot of problems, not having elections isn't the issue. And the last time the opposition tried to take power it was full-NAZI-mode no Godwin. The same opposition candidates they're running now were directly involved in the attempt to instigate a military junta in 2002. Yet they're not in prison.

Chavez was once challenged in a recall referendum partway through his term (2006 i think) and the media said that he was trying to undermine the process. ... Except for the fact that it was Chavez himself who put the recall referedum law in place. There was no such possibility before his presidency. So he's the sort of "dictator" who specifically created a law for himself to be expelled from office partway through his term based on a referendum. In fact, in the opposition staged a coup in 2002 in which they abolished the constitution among other changes. They themselves tried to negate the law about recall referendums. In fact if you look into the matter there were no referendums in Venezuela at all before Chavez. He created the system in 1999, in which the recall referendums became a constitutional right, and all constitutional changes were required to go to referendum. Before that, Congress could rewrite the constitution at will.

Documentary: The Revolution will not be Televised (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id--ZFtjR5c) has footage of the Venezuelan coup leaders in 2002 announcing the abolition of the constitution, supreme court, electoral commission, human rights ombudsman, and national assembly. Basically to be replace by rule by decree of a military-backed president, while cops in the streets firing actual shotguns at people to maintain "order" against angry citizens. It's basically everything they accused Chavez of, but 100 times worse. Meanwhile, US TV reported "freedom has been restored". It's a really fascinating watch, as a film crew was present when the coup happened and managed to stitch the whole story together.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 18, 2017, 05:23:49 am
Meanwhile in Spain ( Spain is in Latin America right?) the "gag law"  allows the police to prosecute people for sharing (or "liking") police brutality videos on social media
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: scriver on February 18, 2017, 08:22:38 am
Is that's what's going on in your avatar?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: wierd on February 18, 2017, 08:43:17 am
Naw, it's a scene from the Arnold Schwartzenegger film (made from a book written by L Ron Hubbard! Wait, it was Phillip K Dick!? I could have sworn...) called Total Recall.

That is the female protagonist suffocating in the near vacuum of the rarefied martian atmosphere.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on February 18, 2017, 08:45:37 am
BTW, a great slap in the face of the "Venezuela has no elections" argument is that in december 2015 they had a full legislature election, and the opposition parties won that (https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/12924), and now control their parliament. So, the so-called dictators had an election and lost that, acceding defeat to the other party, yet for the first time in 2016 it's been labeled a "Not Free" country by a major NGO, and other nations are called for "elections".

Seriously? You're labeled a dictator and have elections which your side doesn't even win, then after that they label your country "not free" and call for elections ... how does that even work?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: wierd on February 18, 2017, 08:48:35 am
Post Truth.

That's how.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: andrea on February 18, 2017, 08:54:53 am
Well, clearly the opposition parties rigged the election. That is why it is not a free state.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: wierd on February 18, 2017, 08:57:43 am
...

Yes. The parties that were not only maligned by the local press (due to despotic control by a dictator), but also under intense local pressure to fall into compliance using actual threat of physical violence by a superior armed regime... Somehow managed to CHEAT, and win the election.

Yes, that makes total sense. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the horrible interventionist politics of a certain wealthy nation north of the equator. No sir. Not at all.

/s
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Reelya on February 18, 2017, 09:18:54 am
if you look at the TV clips near the start of the documentary about Venezuela, the media there is basically wall-to-wall FOX News type shit**. Literally, that's what all the regular TV is like there, because it's all owned by a small group of wealthy families who don't like Chavez. I actually think the American conservative media picked up anti-Obama memes from the anti-Chavez memes in Venezuela. e.g. they shopped Chavez + the Ayatollah, Chavez + Hitler etc, all the same ones they did for Obama. Basically when Obama came along they appropriated all the anti-Chavez tricks and memes for that.

Also, poor Colombia being next to beligerent Venezuela. Venezuela spends $3 billion a year on defense. That's billions with a 'b'. And they have 115000 active front-line personnel. That's a lot of thousands. Meanwhile poor beleagured Colombia has has to ramp up spending to $12 billion and recruit 445000 frontline troops, just to stave off the threat of being invaded by Venezeula.

Venezuela is often accused of militarily threatening it's neighbours (Colombia and Brazil). It does it in the sneakiest way possible: by spending less on arms and maintaining a much smaller army than they do, while signing so called "defense alliances"*! What could be more sneaky and unexpected that that?

* seriously, the media tried to claim Venezeula was strong-arming Brazil when they signed a defense pact. Despite the Brazilian army being absolutely monstrous in comparison to Venezuela's. This is the sort of bullshit you get, when you build up a media narrative that a quite small and not-really-that-militarized nation is in fact the biggest threat to the hemisphere.

** btw: when it comes to covering Latin America, the "liberal" press in USA is as bad as FOX covering domestic politics. e.g. at the nytimes it seems verboten to mention UNASUR (you get 1 Unasur per 100 Kardashians or so), which is like the EU+NATO but for South America. It's a pretty important development in Latin politics, but one the corporate press in the USA has decided you're better off not knowing about - probably because a rival Western Hemisphere bloc doesn't fit the USA's objectives. It's not just "Anti-Chavez" the US media is literally "Anti anything good that happens in Latin America" unless it's about cute sloths or something.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Teneb on February 18, 2017, 09:57:46 am
Unfortunately, Chavez is dead and Maduro is now in power. And Maduro seems to be trying his best to be Glorious Leader of Best Venezuela by jailing all his political opponents and driving the country into the ground. What went through Chavez's head when he made this asshole his vice-president is beyond me.

* seriously, the media tried to claim Venezeula was strong-arming Brazil when they signed a defense pact. Despite the Brazilian army being absolutely monstrous in comparison to Venezuela's. This is the sort of bullshit you get, when you build up a media narrative that a quite small and not-really-that-militarized nation is in fact the biggest threat to the hemisphere.
Kek. Everyone capable of strong-arming Brazil is outside South America. If anything, we are strong-arming them, since I doubt my government would just sit around if Venezuela decided to stop exporting that sweet petroleum.

I suspect the US media cares so much about trying to look Venezuela look bad because they may have the larges oil reserves in the world (https://web.archive.org/web/20101215105626/http://eia.gov/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=VE) and are not in the pocket of the US.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics Thread: Literally to the South of Ameripol
Post by: Helgoland on February 18, 2017, 03:48:30 pm
PTW. May I suggest changing the thread title to something about Venezuela specifically?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuela Stands Tall Against Imperialism
Post by: Teneb on February 18, 2017, 04:16:42 pm
PTW. May I suggest changing the thread title to something about Venezuela specifically?
Done while also being cheeky.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuela Stands Tall Against Imperialism
Post by: TempAcc on February 18, 2017, 07:01:10 pm
Maduro is trying and failing to pull a Glorious Leadertm facade but he knows he's barely keeping himself on power. Hopefuly venezuela will be finally walking toward a brighter future under a not utterly ugly and incompetent dweeb wearing the most idiotic looking track suit in the history of the world, in due time. Hell, at this point, I bet many venezuelans would be ok with becoming a US puppet, because US puppets usualy have something to eat.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuela Stands Tall Against Imperialism
Post by: Reelya on February 18, 2017, 10:55:29 pm
Quote
I bet many venezuelans would be ok with becoming a US puppet, because US puppets usualy have something to eat.

idk about that. Beef consumption is a good metric to whether people are eating or now, because beef is a luxury item for poor countries. If it's true that Venezuelans are starving, then beef consumption should be dropping, but it's going up:
http://beef2live.com/story-venezuela-beef-production-imports-consumption-1960-2015-0-120921

The peak was 2008, it then dropped hard in 2009 (global financial crisis), but every year 2009-2015 it's grown. So the idea that they have a worse food situation than 2008-2009 is not born out by consumption figures, which are only increasing during the "crisis" period. Right now, Venezuelans consume about 50% more beef than 1999 before Chavez.

Here's the USDA noting that American food exports to Venezuela are booming:
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/venezuela-prospects-us-agricultural-exports

They blame it on lower production because of "socialism". But in fact ... look at the beef figures, almost all the increase is from higher demand. And instead of "socialism" being to blame for the dip in production from 2012-2015, what about the freaking drought?
venezuelanalysis.com/news/11822

I mean seriously, there's a drought there that's lasted for 4 years, maybe that's got more to do with lower beef production that "socialism", and food consumption has skyrocketed in Venezuela since before the Chavez years. These two factors have driven imports. There's no way the USDA isn't aware of this. They tell you it's a good export market, but the reasons they give for that being true are plain bullshit. Don't always trust the "reasons" that government agencies and the media give for things happening.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Teneb on March 30, 2017, 01:43:59 pm
I searched english-language news sites for this but only found one. Venezuela's Supreme Court, which is pro-Maduro, has stripped all power from Venezuela's congress, dominated by the opposition. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-national-assembly). In portuguese. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/oposicao-denuncia-ditadura-apos-supremo-da-venezuela-assumir-papel-do-congresso.ghtml)

This is big. Really big. Maduro is making his move to become South America's Glorious Leader.

It's sad, even. Venezuela was doing reasonably well before Chavez went and died. I absolutely cannot fathom why he would even make a man like Maduro his second in command. But he did, and Maduro is proceeding to completely fuck his country.


Also more shit going down in Paraguay (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/paraguay-reelection-amend-constitution-horacio-cartes).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: TempAcc on March 30, 2017, 01:51:07 pm
Chavez died before the biggest shit could hit the fan. Also, Maduro's government has managed to somehow mismanage venezuelan's oil reserves so damn bad that their production has plummeted REALLY HARD in the last year.

After legalizing state sponsored slavery, its really no surprise he'd go this far, specially after the congress somehow gained enough balls to challenge him when the starving people begged them and protested for it. Chavez knew where venezuela was going, but he prob didn't think Maduro was this incompetent (keep in mind i only said incompetent, not evil, I have no reason to believe that chavez wouldn't also go this far, given the same circunstances. Chavez knew that Maduro was a fanatical egomaniac trash, and was ok with it since he was also an egomaniacal trash himself, and knew maduro would do everything to preserve his ideas).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 01:56:18 pm
I searched english-language news sites for this but only found one. Venezuela's Supreme Court, which is pro-Maduro, has stripped all power from Venezuela's congress, dominated by the opposition. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-national-assembly). In portuguese. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/oposicao-denuncia-ditadura-apos-supremo-da-venezuela-assumir-papel-do-congresso.ghtml)

This is big. Really big. Maduro is making his move to become South America's Glorious Leader.

It's sad, even. Venezuela was doing reasonably well before Chavez went and died. I absolutely cannot fathom why he would even make a man like Maduro his second in command. But he did, and Maduro is proceeding to completely fuck his country.


Also more shit going down in Paraguay (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/paraguay-reelection-amend-constitution-horacio-cartes).

I suppose the closest analogy to Maduro would be Stalin, he basically worked his way up the chain of command and became Lenins second. Which would explain how someone as terrible as Maduro got to become Chavez's second in command.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 02:04:24 pm
Chavez did ok, inflation was actually lower every year during his reign than before it, and the economy tripled in size.

But one of the big things they need to do has actually been political unpalatable for decades, not just during the Chavez era: they need to abolish the fuel subsidies. The total costs of the fuel subsidy is $US12 billion, which is about 20% of their entire government spending.

So while there are a number of costly economic stimulus packages that distort pricing, the most costly and damaging ones actually predate socialism by several decades. Things like health clinics for the poor and other social spending are often claimed to be causing budget problems, but in fact those spend a pittance compared to the gasoline subsidy. There are also the food price controls that people say are the main problem now, but I doubt they spend anything close to $12 billion a year propping those up.

There were those massive protests and riots in 1989 when a right-wing government tried to abolish the fuel subsidies. The crackdown lead to a death-toll estimated in the low thousands. Maduro has recently talked about removing the fuel subsidies, but it will be interesting to see whether the opposition goes along with that. It's one of the biggest economic reforms that's been needed in Venezuela for 40 years, but nobody has gotten close to passing that without a massive death toll.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: TempAcc on March 30, 2017, 02:07:42 pm
but it will be interesting to see whether the congress goes along with that.

What is this congress you talk about?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 02:14:41 pm
Without other evidence say they stripped all power from the National Assembly is not necessarily factual. Headlines in this matter tend to by hyped:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39449494

Quote
On Wednesday, the court gave President Maduro the authority to create joint oil ventures without congressional approval, by-passing the assembly.

The opposition says the court is controlled by the government.

It says the court's move is an attempt to muzzle the opposition during a mounting economic crisis in the oil-rich country.

For example the headline here says the court is "taking over" but the details only mention this one specific type of ruling that no longer needs congressional approval, and that is the entire source of the claim that the courts "took over" the assembly. It doesn't actually sound any different to criticisms of Obama for the courts ruling that his executive orders are valid and can't be overturned by congress. Without more evidence you can't conclude whether the headlines are entirely accurate or journalistic hype. I can cite dozens of example of hype out of Venezeula over the last two decades so it seems like you should always take things with a grain of salt.

Quote
In an emergency session, lawmakers said there had been a "rupture of the constitutional order".

... This would be the same opposition who took power in a coup in 2002 and cheered as they announced the abolition of the constution. It was short-lived but the 2002 opposition government was whatever they're saying about Maduro but to the power of 10.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Teneb on March 30, 2017, 02:22:42 pm
Quoting the supreme court, my own translation: "It is warned that, as long as the contempt and invalidity of the proceedings of the National Assembly persist, this Constitutional Chamber will ensure that parliamentary powers are exercised directly by this room or by the body it has available to oversee the rule of law". (it's in one of the links I posted)

It pretty much is saying: Until you do what we want, you have no power.

That authority to create joint oil ventures was contested by some members of the congress, who were... I don't know the english term for it. Removed from their functions, I guess. They refused, leading to this.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 02:28:35 pm
Well the claims are specifically that Congress has been ignoring court rulings for some time now. The courts do in fact have the authority to interpret the constitution, which is standard separation of powers.

Since the current constitution was written in 1999 during the Chavez years (it was written by elected national delegates then ratified by a referedum), and the opposition have always claimed to hate that constitution and tried to have it overturned more than once, I'd be interested to know what the actual legal details are here. They're suddenly defending Chavez's constitution now?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Teneb on March 30, 2017, 02:30:05 pm
Well the claims are specifically that Congress has been ignoring court rulings for some time now. The courts do in fact have the authority to interpret the constitution.

Since the current constitution was written in 1999 during the Chavez years (it was written by elected national delegates then ratified by a referedum), and the opposition have always claimed to hate that constitution and tried to have it overturned more than once, I'd be interested to know what the actual legal details are here. They're suddenly defending Chavez's constitution now?
No idea.

Also, it's funny in a sad way that no one commented on there being a fistfight in otherguay's congress and one of the congressmen declaring himself president of the body.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 02:34:06 pm
Quoting the supreme court, my own translation: "It is warned that, as long as the contempt and invalidity of the proceedings of the National Assembly persist, this Constitutional Chamber will ensure that parliamentary powers are exercised directly by this room or by the body it has available to oversee the rule of law". (it's in one of the links I posted)

It pretty much is saying: Until you do what we want, you have no power.

That authority to create joint oil ventures was contested by some members of the congress, who were... I don't know the english term for it. Removed from their functions, I guess. They refused, leading to this.

Neutered? Probably not the word you're looking for, but seems to work
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 02:40:54 pm
Also another thing is they hint at opposition leaders arrested for no reason at all. What they don't tell you is that those are anti-corruption cases and both sides have seen major politicians charged with crimes. The corporate news selectively reports on right-wing arrests, makes no mention of left-wing arrests, and then gets all hand-wavy about what the actual charges involved, merely insinuating that it's political motivated. It's implied guilt by omission, which is bad journalism.

For example, this socialist party mayor was arrested for corruption in 2013
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/10093
The story also mentions three police officers and two state-owned bank officials arrested for corruption. Making the total government-side officials mentioned as arrested in this story as 6.

Another socialist mayor was arrested in 2015. At first I thought they were the same story, but nope. This happened just before the parliamentary elections. And the supporters of the (popular) arrested mayor promised to boycott the 2015 parliamentary elections. Might have had some connection to the outcome.
https://nsnbc.me/2015/10/01/popular-chavista-mayor-arrested-on-charges-of-corruption/

13 police officials (detective rank and higher) arrested for corruption:
www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Venezuela-Arrests-13-Police-Officials-over-Corruption-Charges-20150115-0004.html

One of their own state oil company executives arrested for corruption. They arrested an oil ministry official, his sister, a week before on related charges.
www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-corruption-idUSL1N0VC1QI20150202

And those are only from a few minutes of googling. Those stories add up to 22 government-appointed or socialist aligned figures arrested for corruption, just during the Maduro years. So articles that only mention vague allegations of opposition arrests are not giving you the full picture. Politicians of both sides face similar scrutiny.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: TempAcc on March 30, 2017, 02:57:12 pm
Surely arrest under Maduro's regime result only of the government interest in serving its people and are in no way connected to any other interests, aye?

The latest protests and political movements working towards removing maduro from his term have come from all sides, specially now food (beef, bread, vegetables and fruits) imports have plummeted hard since late 2016 (http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/11/news/economy/venezuela-food-shortages/), and production is so inefficient that employees are being forced to work the fields. There are socialists that want Maduro out, this is nothing new. Beef imports have risen in venezuela for the last 10 years because production was gradually decaying, but the constant spenditure in food imports weren't sustainable.

Those glorious spenditures on public health? It was sure fun while money lasted, because public health doesnt seem to be a thing anymore. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36323850)

The food situation has kind of become a little bit ridiculous as of late, since the government has full control of grain usage, mandating that the bigger part of use be used in bread production, which is, incidentaly, a big source of taxation. Since bakers don't have money to handle the taxation effects on their revenue from selling bread, they decided to sell brownies instead, which aren't as heavily taxed, but were arrested for it. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39302506/venezuelan-bakers-arrested-for-making-brownies-instead-of-bread) You can only eat the food the government wants you to eat, I guess, specially if the government feels like taxing it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 03:08:20 pm
I provided independent data on beef, it's at the top of this page and the data is beef industry data, not from any politically connected source. Almost all the increase in beef imports is related to higher consumption, not decreased production. There was a dip in beef production after 2012, but it just happens by coincidence to exactly coincide with reports of a once-in-a-century prolonged drought that's still ongoing.

e.g. beef consumption in 1999 was 392000 tons. It was 590000 tons in 2015.

Production in 2012 was about the same as in 1999, but dipped strongly in 2013+, the time period that other sites are reporting on there being a massive drought.

So, take actual numerical data, and other related events into consideration when assessing how truthful other articles are being about causation. I mean, if they're not mentioning the drought but telling you about decreases in agricultural output during the drought period they're clearly lying their asses off at you. For example here some context on the drought:

http://www.businessinsider.com/drought-floods-and-shortages-in-venezuela-2016-4/?r=AU&IR=T
This is a government minister inspecting the nation's largest dam in 2016:
(http://static5.businessinsider.com/image/5720cdfd91058423008bf345-1200/by-april-25-that-water-level-had-fallen-to-24167-meters-above-sea-level-if-that-level-drops-below-240-meters-then-the-dam-may-be-shut-down-in-order-to-avoid-damage-to-its-power-generating-turbines.jpg)

https://widerimage.reuters.com/story/drought-hit-venezuela-waits-for-rain
Quote
Drought has turned parts of the area behind Venezuela's Guri dam, one of the world's biggest, into a desert
Yeah, this drought turned one of the world's biggest dams into a desert.

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11822
Quote
Venezuela Faces its Worst Drought in 47 Years
Quote
For the first time since 1969 Venezuela has seen three consecutive years of drought, bringing nearly all primary reservoirs across the country to critically low levels.

Socialists can promise a few things but nobody can force rain to fall. And agriculture sort of relies on that. The main things causing this problem are in fact nothing to do with government policies whatsoever, and they're so clearly out of government control that the media that tells you "coz socialism" can only make that argument by completely divorcing their articles from plain physical facts.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 03:27:10 pm
Surely arrest under Maduro's regime result only of the government interest in serving its people and are in no way connected to any other interests, aye?

The latest protests and political movements working towards removing maduro from his term have come from all sides, specially now food (beef, bread, vegetables and fruits) imports have plummeted hard since late 2016 (http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/11/news/economy/venezuela-food-shortages/), and production is so inefficient that employees are being forced to work the fields. There are socialists that want Maduro out, this is nothing new. Beef imports have risen in venezuela for the last 10 years because production was gradually decaying, but the constant spenditure in food imports weren't sustainable.

Those glorious spenditures on public health? It was sure fun while money lasted, because public health doesnt seem to be a thing anymore. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36323850)

The food situation has kind of become a little bit ridiculous as of late, since the government has full control of grain usage, mandating that the bigger part of use be used in bread production, which is, incidentaly, a big source of taxation. Since bakers don't have money to handle the taxation effects on their revenue from selling bread, they decided to sell brownies instead, which aren't as heavily taxed, but were arrested for it. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39302506/venezuelan-bakers-arrested-for-making-brownies-instead-of-bread) You can only eat the food the government wants you to eat, I guess, specially if the government feels like taxing it.


I'm a bit confused. The bakers are now mostly making brownies and other non-bread stuff instead of bread because they don't want to be taxed? Brownies aren't a food staple......

Also, wasn't overtaxation of bread one of the underlying causes behind the French Revolution?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 03:31:31 pm
But TempAcc, the wheat was past it's use-by date:

Quote
Two more bakers were taken into custody for making brownies with out-of-date wheat.

Do you want health inspectors to not arrest people trying to feed you expired goods? Or do you only cry that it's politically motivated if it happens in Venezuela? Sounds like a beat up.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 03:34:17 pm
But TempAcc, the wheat was past it's use-by date:

Quote
Two more bakers were taken into custody for making brownies with out-of-date wheat.

Do you want health inspectors to not arrest people trying to feed you expired goods? Or do you only cry that it's politically motivated if it happens in Venezuela? Sounds like a beat up.

I see, TempAccs post missed that essential bit of information.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 03:38:56 pm
There's also the give-away that the "wheat shortage" article completely omits any mention of the drought, which you can easily check out by googling.

There's a drought on btw, for the last 4 years. Makes it hard to grow wheat or beef btw.

And what happens then? Prices increase, imports increase. All the stuff listed in that article.

~~~

Also the bullshit in the article started with the headline:

Venezuelan bakers arrested for making brownies instead of bread

You have to read on a bit to find out they were arrested for using expired wheat. The headline is deliberately bullshit. BBC are not trustworthy. I could only find one BBC article even mentioning the drought, and somehow they managed to blame the problems caused by the drought on those damn commies in Venezuela.

BBC really don't have credibility on this issue since they have biased clickbait headlines and omit important details.

In that wheat-shortage article they also tell you about electricity cuts, but don't mention that it's because the capital runs on hydro-power and the dams are empty. They imply that it's because of Maduro's policies. But they're lying, because it's easily checked. And if they're lying about the reason behind the electricity shortages are you going to trust them about the wheat shortages? Both are because of the drought, which BBC won't tell you about. This is "Fake News" if anything was.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Teneb on March 30, 2017, 03:46:23 pm
Also, wasn't overtaxation of bread one of the underlying causes behind the French Revolution?
No. The monarchy, instead of spending money on things like food or even their army, kept throwing party after party. "The people have no bread" is a way to say that they have no food period. Because bread is a staple.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 03:48:32 pm
Also, wasn't overtaxation of bread one of the underlying causes behind the French Revolution?
No. The monarchy, instead of spending money on things like food or even their army, kept throwing party after party. "The people have no bread" is a way to say that they have no food period. Because bread is a staple.

Yeah, like "let them eat cake" Marie Antoniette, although it's debatable whether she ever actually said that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 03:58:52 pm
It's also a different issue. There is no special bread tax in Venezuela that is a big source of revenue.

Basic bread is subject to the price controls. Brownies are not. So the guys want to make brownies because you can charge whatever you want for them. i.e. the bakers are arguing that they should be able to push prices of wheat-related good higher.

But note that the story only details people arrested for trying to use expired wheat to make these high-profit brownies. There is no actual mention of well-intentioned brownie makers also being targeted. So the people arrested were in fact profiteering by trying to turn expired food waste into higher-cost goods. If the price controls on bread didn't exist, they would have used the expired wheat to make bread instead of brownies and still have been arrested.

This is a common pattern in anti-Venezuela stories. They insinuate something nefarious is happening in general, then provide one or two concrete examples, but they have details that contradict the headline. It's not a good sign of credible journalism.

The article seems confused about which one it wants. It mentions unsold bread from high prices, but then mentions the baker's industry body arguing that prices are too low, and that people are working around the system to make higher-priced goods with the wheat. Which one is it? The price can't be both too low and too high at the same time, but this article is somehow argung for both outcomes and blaming the government for both. The article has details which directly contradict other details in the same article.

That, along with the clickbait headline with is contradicted by the details, and mentioning the electricity shortages without mentioning the hydro-dam water shortages, and all of these things being related to the drought ... basically it adds up to a "Legendary +15 Bullshit" article.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: TempAcc on March 30, 2017, 04:19:55 pm
Indeed, I make a mistake in calling price control as taxation.
Regardless, in artificially keeping the price of bread low, the government disregards the economic fact of wheat becoming specially scarce since imports have plummeted and so has the internal production (in no small part because of the very drought you mentioned), but at the same time prevents bakers from increasing said price, essentialy driving the baker's revenue way down. In short, the government is forcing bakers to use almost all wheat of the lower amount of wheat they can acquire to make bread which they're forced to sell for low prices, essentialy driving the baker's revenue way down.

Basic bread is subject to the price controls. Brownies are not. So the guys want to make brownies because you can charge whatever you want for them. i.e. the bakers are arguing that they should be able to push prices of wheat-related good higher.

The bakers then opted to make brownies, which aren't a staple and thus have no government set price control, so they can actualy hope to have enough profit to buy things other than the wheat they use to make their own goods, like, say, feed and clothe their families. The fact two of them were arrested for using expired wheat only further confirms this fact, unless you're willing to believe the bakers are part of some evil cartel that wants to starve everyone so they can live in infinite luxury provided by the sale of a few dozen brownies.

Imagine that your boss tells you to work but forbids you from being paid more than a few cents for it.
Wait a minute. (https://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/07/29/congratulations-to-bolivarian-socialism-venezuela-brings-back-agricultural-slavery/&refURL=https://www.google.com.br/&referrer=https://www.google.com.br/)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 04:24:44 pm
Every nation has cases where people try to offload expired food on customers. The fact is there's no specific reason to link this directly to politics, other than the clickbait headline. It smacks of them fishing around for a story then retro-fitting the headline to it.

The drop in imports recently is most likely related to this:

(http://www.investmentu.com/assets/images/content/2015/01/oil-price-prediction-decmber-2012-june-2016.jpg)

That graph predicted a rebound in oil prices, but that rebound never happened, there was a huge drop in world oil prices in 2014, and prices never actually recovered from that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 04:47:02 pm
Wasn't the drop in oil prices in large part due to Saudi Arabia glutting the oil supply in an attempt to force shale oil and fracking companies out of business?

Their attempt wasn't very successful though as those companies are bouncing back.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 04:55:16 pm
There are also contradictory statements about Venezuelan oil production that miss the point. It's argued that Venezuela is too oil-dependent. They need to reduce that oil dependence. Bad Chavez! But Chavez also cut oil production and was elected on a platform of reducing oil dependence. The corporate articles are saying Veneuzela should have invested more in oil production capacity rather than civil society and "pump, baby, pump" their way out of economic problems, but at the same time they're slamming the nation for "not reducing oil dependency".

These two things are in fact contradictory positions. It doesn't make any sense to say that Chavez didn't do enough to reduce oil dependency, but he should have invested a higher percentage of GDP in oil investments. Both at the same time. One contradicts the other. A higher percentage of GDP was invested in the non-oil sector under Chavez (which is why they say he under-invested in oil), which clearly needs to be true if you want to reduce oil dependency in any reasonable measure.

In fact, the reduced investments in the oil industry were part of a socialist plan to gradually reduce the oil dependency of the nation, precisely because it causes these wild fluctuations in the economy in connection with global oil prices. Maybe they could have weathered more immediate storms by pumping more oil, but in that case oil dependency would actually increase.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sergarr on March 30, 2017, 05:19:33 pm
You know, it's interesting that there are people who're still trying to defend Venezuela government's actions, even while they dissolve the legislative branch while accusing the opposition of treason. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39449494) Thankfully, the majority of the free world citizens, both common and in the leadership, can see them for what they are - just another bunch of socialists, destroying yet another country with their failed policies.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 05:23:30 pm
Well, obviously Saudi Arabia showed that you can't 'pump, baby, pump' their way out of the problem as it simply glutted the supply and caused prices to drop. Simple laws of supply and demand.

Not sure why you'd call it a socialist position to reduce oil dependency, after all, the US wants to reduce dependency on foriegn oil and don't see it as socialist. Though I guess it's not the same thing. Seems more like a survival position than socialist.

You know, it's interesting that there are people who're still trying to defend Venezuela government's actions, even while they dissolve the legislative branch while accusing the opposition of treason. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39449494) Thankfully, the majority of the free world citizens, both common and in the leadership, can see them for what they are - just another bunch of socialists, destroying yet another country with their failed policies.

Universial single-payer healthcare doesn't seem like a failed policy, though the countries using it do have to find a way of making it sustainable.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sergarr on March 30, 2017, 05:29:52 pm
Universial single-payer healthcare doesn't seem like a failed policy, though the countries using it do have to find a way of making it sustainable.
That's because it's not socialist, it's the capitalist way. Alternatives to single-payer healthcare are, objectively, less economically efficient, ergo they're not capitalist. Capitalism is the way of financial efficiency, maximized through informed and rational choice. The shit USA oligarchs try to pull is the opposite of that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Teneb on March 30, 2017, 05:49:39 pm
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sergarr on March 30, 2017, 06:03:35 pm
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Stuff like that never comes for free. There is no such thing as a free lunch - someone has to pay for it. Healthcare is, ideally, paid for by the whole society in a distributed manner, roughly proportional to their available wealth - which is to say, it's ideally paid through taxes - but it's never actually free.

You know, it's interesting that there are people who're still trying to defend Venezuela government's actions, even while they dissolve the legislative branch while accusing the opposition of treason. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39449494) Thankfully, the majority of the free world citizens, both common and in the leadership, can see them for what they are - just another bunch of socialists, destroying yet another country with their failed policies.
Already brought up earlier in the thread, as a different article.

Well the claims are specifically that Congress has been ignoring court rulings for some time now. The courts do in fact have the authority to interpret the constitution, which is standard separation of powers.

Since the current constitution was written in 1999 during the Chavez years (it was written by elected national delegates then ratified by a referedum), and the opposition have always claimed to hate that constitution and tried to have it overturned more than once, I'd be interested to know what the actual legal details are here. They're suddenly defending Chavez's constitution now?
Dissolving a branch of government is a move towards tyranny. No matter their legal justifications, this is a move towards communist authoritarianism, typical of all states ruled by socialists, and thus should be condemned by the people of the free world as a fundamentally anti-democratic move.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 06:11:51 pm
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Stuff like that never comes for free. There is no such thing as a free lunch - someone has to pay for it. Healthcare is, ideally, paid for by the whole society in a distributed manner, roughly proportional to their available wealth - which is to say, it's ideally paid through taxes - but it's never actually free.

Nobodys realistically saying that healthcare should be free, which isn't what universial healthcare is about anyway.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sergarr on March 30, 2017, 06:23:08 pm
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Stuff like that never comes for free. There is no such thing as a free lunch - someone has to pay for it. Healthcare is, ideally, paid for by the whole society in a distributed manner, roughly proportional to their available wealth - which is to say, it's ideally paid through taxes - but it's never actually free.

Nobodys realistically saying that healthcare should be free, which isn't what universial healthcare is about anyway.
In case you didn't notice, I was responding to a comment which, in fact, did say, or rather, imply, that healthcare should be free:
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Even if they didn't actually imply that, it's still useful to point out that, no, healthcare cannot actually be free, so that other people may not be misled/misinformed by statements like these.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: smjjames on March 30, 2017, 06:54:57 pm
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Stuff like that never comes for free. There is no such thing as a free lunch - someone has to pay for it. Healthcare is, ideally, paid for by the whole society in a distributed manner, roughly proportional to their available wealth - which is to say, it's ideally paid through taxes - but it's never actually free.

Nobodys realistically saying that healthcare should be free, which isn't what universial healthcare is about anyway.
In case you didn't notice, I was responding to a comment which, in fact, did say, or rather, imply, that healthcare should be free:
Yeah, how dare governments try to give basic rights such as healthcare for free.
Even if they didn't actually imply that, it's still useful to point out that, no, healthcare cannot actually be free, so that other people may not be misled/misinformed by statements like these.

Given the wording, pretty sure Teneb was being sarcastic there. More like 'How dare they give affordable healthcare for all.'. Though okay on your point on pointing that out.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 08:10:04 pm
The problem with Venezuela is that the opposition is objectively worse in every way even compared to the most alarmist reading of Maduro.

In the 2002 coup, the opposition staged an unplanned march which came under sniper fire. They then blamed Chavez and used that as a trigger for the coup. A rally was pre-planned but the march too a "spontaneous" change of route, after which they came under sniper fire. That's suspicious enough, but the damning evidence is that the top coup generals *pre-recorded* a speech specifically condemning the government for the protest coming under sniper fire, but this was recorded several hours before the rally even began. So basically they staged a protest then had their own forces shoot their own supporters to justify the coup, and pre-recorded an outrage statement because they needed to be in place to carry out the coup. (this was on an SBS news Australia report, and the whistleblower was a CNN Spanish reporter who witnessed the recording). Basically this and other bits of evidence strongly suggest police snipers were pre-placed on the day of the coup to shoot at both pro- and anti- government rallies, then they manipulated the footage and commerical news coverage to make it look like the elected government was responsible.

And as for the opposition leader's views on separation of powers, we have their chosen man being sworn in during the coup they all signed on to. Luckily for us he gave a speech listing the things which would be abolished. Basically everything (46 minutes, 30 second in):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEsSf7ARpw8

I mean, it's all right there on video in their own words, with cheering from the opposition top people:

The National Assembly - abolished
The Supreme Court - abolished
The Electoral Commission - abolished
And a few other offices.

They also announced they were going to get rid of all pro-Chavez mayors and governors who had been elected in the 1999-2002 period.

They also announced the suspension of the entire constitution. That's mentioned elsewhere but not shown on that clip. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carmona_Decree

https://williamblum.org/chapters/freeing-the-world-to-death/us-coup-against-hugo-chavez-of-venezuela-2002
Quote
On April 11, a military coup toppled Chávez, who was taken to a remote location. Pedro Carmona, the chairman of Venezuela’s largest chamber of commerce, was installed as president. He proceeded to dissolve the legislature, the Supreme Court, the attorney general’s office, the national electoral commission, and the state governorships. Carmona then decreed that the 1999 constitution, which had been written by a constitutional assembly and ratified by a wide majority of voters, following the procedures outlined in the previous constitution, was to be suspended. On top of all this, the new regime raided the homes of various Chávez supporters.

On the video, coup leader Carmona calls conquest down the barrel of a gun "a mandate more valuable than any referendum". Alluding to the fact that Chavez favored referendums to ratify government decisions.

Carmona turns up in this Wikipedia list of politicians who have suspended the constitution for example:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_leaders_who_suspended_the_constitution

So that's who the opposition are: 1930s style fascists, with the full "burning the reichstag" false-flag operations in which they murder their own supporters in order to establish a dictatorship.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on March 30, 2017, 08:42:50 pm
And that was fifteen years ago.


Right now, it's not the opposition that's trying to establish a dictatorship.
It's not the opposition that's arrested dozens of its political opponents without trial, or even a veneer of due process.
It's not the opposition that has methodically dismantled Venezuela's democracy.


It's the Venezuelan government--that you've so vigorously defended--that has done all of those things. (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/world/americas/venezuelas-supreme-court-takes-power-from-legislature.html?_r=0) And while you were busy making excuses for them and attacking anyone who dared stand up to them, they got away with it.

Think about that for a little bit.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 08:48:32 pm
nytimes is questionable on anything to do with latin america. I already pointed out that once UNASUR was ratified, nytimes had a moratorium on any mention of it's existence for the next four years. Basically I don't trust them to be an objective source because they seem to have a strong pro-US bias in all Latin reporting.

Most of the institutions that the Venezuelan socialists are accused of wanting to dismantle are in fact ones they created. For example, referendums. They didn't exist in Venezuela before Chavez. An act of Congress was how constitutional amendments worked before that. When Chavez wanted to change some constitutional thing by referendum they often accused him of wanting to be a dictator. But the fact is, if he wanted that he wouldn't have put that pesky referendum law in place.

But these stories have been running for 15 years too and almost none of them actually have meat. Give me some examples of specific people who are being held and we can look at the specific cases. An article which claims X number of nameless people are held could be scuttlebut. Let's look at some names and details. Who are the scores of prisoners? No articles seem to think that detail is important enough to tell you even one single name.

I mean if "scores" of political prisoners have been arrested without trial then that's like ... 60+ politicians from other parties. Who? Why aren't there articles detailing this? There should be news stories on every one of these people, but you can only find news articles detailed a couple of arrests.

For example, googling "venezuela opposition leader held without charges" the only articles come up are about Leopardo Lopez. He was arrested for inciting riot. Mainstream news calls him a victim, but other news sources claim his supporters set up barricades and 43 people died in relation to their actions:

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11502
Quote
Venezuelan judge Susana Barreiros found Lopez guilty of public incitement to violence and association to commit crimes. In particular, Barreiros cited over 700 tweets which she says urged supporters to take the streets to demand the “exit” of democratically elected President Nicolas Maduro.

Beginning on February 12, 2014 and lasting several months, the protests saw opposition supporters set up violent street barricades that led to the deaths of 43 people, over half of whom were security personnel and passersby.

Lopez was arrested on February 14 after clashes saw armed opposition backers attack the Public Prosecutor’s office and other government buildings, leading to several deaths and widespread public property damage.

Born into one of Venezuela's wealthiest families, Lopez is also well known for playing an active role in the US-sponsored 2002 coup which saw then-president Hugo Chavez briefly ousted from office. The arrest of the Harvard-educated lawyer has attracted widespread coverage from international news outlets, which have drawn comparisons between the rightwing politician and both Mahatma Gandhi and Nelson Mandela.

If you're constantly tweeting incitements to violence and that caused the death of 20 police officers, you fucking well deserve to go to prison. Plus, this guy was involved in the coup back in 2002. He was still doing this shit, so they charged him for it. Wouldn't you expect a zero-tolerance policy to this shit perpetrated by previous coup leaders?

But this is one of the only examples of an opposition leader "wrongly" arrested I could find. Find some better ones then maybe I'll take them seriously. But I'm not going to take media outlets with a history of anti-chavez hysteria seriously about unnamed people hypothetically wronged by the socialists, because that's not real news. Either document the details or it's just propaganda.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on March 30, 2017, 09:09:57 pm
You done writing your post yet?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 09:11:41 pm
I'm still waiting for some details of all the wrongful arrests of people held without trial. Google isn't bringing much up.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on March 30, 2017, 09:18:38 pm
If you'd actually look in good faith instead of ignoring anything that tells you what you don't want to hear, you'd find plenty.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 09:30:11 pm
Show me some articles, I'm googling general statements such as "venezuela arrest of opposition leader" and all I get is about the arrests of people who were prominent supporters of the (2002) coup, being arrested for further coup-plotting.

e.g. Leopardo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma. There's pretty decent evidence against both of them. e.g. from 2008:
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3695
Quote
One of the men with whom the IRI (USA's International Republican Institute) team met, former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, called the coup “a lost opportunity for Venezuela.”
which was recorded by IRI in interviews back in April of 2002. Ledezma was arrested for being involved in another coup attempt in 2015, and there was actually quite a bit of documentary evidence (https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11238) include phone recordings (and the stated confession of an arrested military officer) linking him and others to that. Especially given his previous pro-coup statements in 2002, which were reported in 2008, it's not actually that far-fetched. The MO of the purported 2015 coup was actually similar to what they set up in 2002.

Show me what I'm missing here.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on March 30, 2017, 09:45:34 pm
Show me some articles, I'm googling general statements such as "venezuela arrest of opposition leader" and all I get is about the arrests of people who were prominent supporters of the coup, being arrested for further coup-plotting.

e.g. Leopardo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma. There's pretty decent evidence against both of them. e.g. from 2008:
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3695
Quote
One of the men with whom the IRI (USA's International Republican Institute) team met, former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, called the coup “a lost opportunity for Venezuela.”

One sentence is an incredibly shaky cause to arrest somebody. Combine that with the fact that's he's a prominent opposition leader, and it's incredibly obvious that this is a politically motivated arrest.

So that's one for you right there.

Quote
which was recorded by IRI in interviews back in April of 2002. Ledezma was arrested for being involved in anothert coup attempt in 2015, and there was actually quite a bit of documentary evidence (https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11238) include phone recordings linking him and others to that. Especially given his previous pro-coup statements in 2002, which were reported in 2008, it's not actually that far-fetched. The MO of the purported 2015 coup was actually similar to what they set up in 2002.

I find it more than a little hypocritical that you're perfectly happy to use sources that are blatantly biased in favor of the Venezuelan government when you were complaining about bias literally on the same page.


Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 10:01:58 pm
No I'm happy to consider any sources, but the allegations don't seem to have any citable sources.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on March 30, 2017, 10:02:49 pm
There are plenty of perfectly good examples of opposition leaders being arrested.
These were in January (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/bf7085c29a2a432288d60a277cccae42/venezuela-arrests-opposition-lawmaker-weapons-charges)


Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on March 30, 2017, 10:07:38 pm
Show me some articles, I'm googling general statements such as "venezuela arrest of opposition leader" and all I get is about the arrests of people who were prominent supporters of the (2002) coup, being arrested for further coup-plotting.

e.g. Leopardo Lopez and Antonio Ledezma. There's pretty decent evidence against both of them. e.g. from 2008:
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/3695
Quote
One of the men with whom the IRI (USA's International Republican Institute) team met, former Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledezma, called the coup “a lost opportunity for Venezuela.”
which was recorded by IRI in interviews back in April of 2002. Ledezma was arrested for being involved in another coup attempt in 2015, and there was actually quite a bit of documentary evidence (https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/11238) include phone recordings (and the stated confession of an arrested military officer) linking him and others to that. Especially given his previous pro-coup statements in 2002, which were reported in 2008, it's not actually that far-fetched. The MO of the purported 2015 coup was actually similar to what they set up in 2002.

Show me what I'm missing here.

Still haven't answered the question.

Yes, actually, I just did.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 30, 2017, 10:23:31 pm
One of the problems with the Maduro did it argument is that a lot of the mentioned arrests have absolutely no connection to national politics, and they're conducted by local police forces which Maduro has zero control over. e.g one of the arrests in those three in January was of a local council member, Jorge Luiz Gonzalez, in the remote city of Maracaibo, on illegal weapons charges

Maracaibo is in Zulia State:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_Zulia
Zulia State has always been ruled by the Opposition
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_New_Era
Zulia State has it's own state police.
http://think-venezuela.net/police.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_enforcement_in_Venezuela
Quote
each of Venezuela's 23 states has its own police force, numbering around 50,000 officers altogether. Finally, since 1989's decentralization legislation, many municipalities have set up their own police forces.

Linking an arrest in Zulia State by the State Police to Maduro makes no sense, at all, since the police there are hired and run by the opposition. There was an attempt to create a national police force, but they're limited to a couple of thousand officers in the capital city. Everything outside that is under state/city jurisdiction. Another Maracaibo local councilman was also detained but not arrested around the same time as Jorge Luiz Gonzalez according to a related article by reuters. (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKBN14W2QP) But like I said, law enforcement in Zulia has always been under the opposition's control.

And the other guy was in Bolivar State, which at least actually has a socialist elected governor, so could be linked to Maduro's party, at least in principle. The arrested guy was a local councilman from an opposition party. But they also arrested a local mayor from the same party as the governor for corruption, not that long ago.

This is another trick the media pulls: blaming Chavez & Co for all the local police forces' actions. This is more clearly shown to be a lie when you consider that they blame Chavez / Maduro for the state & city police arresting people in opposition political strongholds, where Chavez's party has never held power in any form.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sheb on March 31, 2017, 02:34:10 am
PTW Reelya defends wannabe dictators.

Has this bit about the Supreme Court taking legislative powers from the opposition-controlled National Assembly be discussed yet? (http://www.dw.com/en/venezuela-supreme-court-takes-over-legislative-powers-from-national-assembly/a-38214811)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2017, 03:40:43 am
Just saying those articles have glaring factual errors that kind of torpedo the main point they're making. The Feds in Venezuela don't actually control the state police, so any arrests at that level have nothing to do with Maduro. Now, if they said the National Guard was going around arresting tons of people then you could start to make a case. But no articles are saying that. Local councilmen who get in trouble don't have any more to do with Maduro than they do with Trump. Especially when most of the listed arrests are actually in opposition stronghold states.

And like I said, mentioning the electricity shortages without acknowledging the massive drought that caused water shortages in the hydro plants ... that's just straight up lying to your face. And of course the drought plus massive drop in the international oil price are in fact huge factors in any food shortage / economic downturn Venezuela is facing. A whole article about the shortages which doesn't mention any of those factors is just not good journalism.

And the problem is that almost all articles on Venezuela have a ton of similar glaring factual errors. If they're lying about a bunch of other details that I can check quite easily (for example that article about brownies where the text itself contradicted the headline), then which parts am I meant to trust? Sure I'm skeptical of Maduro, but the people writing those articles are about as friendly with the truth as Donald Trump is.

And Maduro is facing a new election next year anyway. So much for being a dictator.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sheb on March 31, 2017, 04:14:58 am
Eh, I'm just kidding you. It's fresh to have a different viewpoint, even if I often find that you stretch your argument beyond credibility (like when we were discussing Mugabe).

As for elections... You know that even Kim-Jong-Un faces them, right? Elections in itself don't mean jack shit. I'm surprised you have nothing to say about the grab of legislative power from the Assembly.

Also you haven't shown proof that the guy was arrested by local police. At least one of the arrested was picked up at a police checkpoitn which are largely manned by the National Guard. It seems the order for the arrest also came directly from that Task Force led by the VP, even if it was carried out by local police.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2017, 04:40:41 am
I'm reading around about the arrest of Gilber Caro, the guy they ordered picked up. The charges are actually that he's linked with Colombian paramiltary organizations, and was actually planning to assassinate a number of oppositon leaders:

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/12881
Quote
During his official address, El Assami presented images of the materials Venezuelan authorities say they confiscated from Caro’s vehicle including explosives (C-4), an automatic rifle with a scratched Venezuelan National Armed Forces (FANB) serial number, 20 cartridges as well as documents with maps outlining plans, routes and a hit-list full of opposition leaders’ names.

El Assami emphasized that the list would have been used with the objective of blaming the Bolivarian government for assassinations of opposition political leaders.

So either that guy's some pretty bad news or this is in fact a really elaborate conspiracy, in which they've constructed an elaborate double-bluff false flag operation: arresting someone then fabricating a mountain of documentary evidence that they were in fact going to carry out their own false flag operation against their own people, in order to take you down. They're saying what alerted them was that he made a number of clandestine trips across the Colombian border, which were detected.

Quote
"This character has a criminal record that shows two convictions, one of them 15 years for drug trafficking… [today] we verify his connection to plans to cause violence in the country,” El Assami asserted, highlighting that Caro “will be punished to the full extent of the law.”
http://af.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idAFKBN14W03A
Quote
The vice president said Caro was carrying a gun, bullets and explosives, adding that the opposition politician had a previous criminal record, including charges of murder and drug trafficking.

Also, the false flag operation against Gilber Caro involves time travel to implicate him in crimes in the past, for which he's already been convicted. It really adds another layer to the false flag operation to arrest this one guy ... I mean really, I can comprehend how Gilber Caro's false-flag plot could have worked: assassinate some opposition leaders, blame Maduro, trigger a coup. It's a known type of plot.

The alternative is that Maduro's people actually conducted their own false-flag operation where they fabricated the existence of the above false-flag operation, implicated Gilber Caro, fabricated the right documents, then completely fabricated some details about his previous convictions.

I mean which left-winger government creates a false-flag operation in which they implicate a right-winger as planning to assassinate other right-wingers in their own false-flag operation, in order to implicate the left-wingers for a right-winger takeover? It's not something you would do, because surely there are less convoluted ways to get what you want than making up such a complicated story with multiple points of failure.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sheb on March 31, 2017, 07:11:43 am
What false-flag? Like, arrest someone then pretend you found stuff in his trunk?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Frumple on March 31, 2017, 07:49:28 am
Man, all I know is now I want to see a scenario where a power that be taps the same guy for repeated false flag operations against themself, changing faces every time. The biography of the agent that killed themself fifty times, a story of the death and replacement of several dozen political figures of different names and faces but astoundingly similar proportions and mannerisms. Just imagine the support staff and spin doctors involved in that. It'd be a hell of a job to have.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2017, 04:20:15 pm
What false-flag? Like, arrest someone then pretend you found stuff in his trunk?

Well what they found on him was a plan to assassinate other opposition leaders and then to pin in on the government. Which would have been a classic false-flag operation. And if the government is faking this, then that would be their own outer-layer of false flag operation (pretending there are threats to the opposition that don't exist). So they're running some sort of high stakes double-bluff false flag operation.

But the problem here is that no government would set something like this up. Every government ever has always faked that themselves are the target. If they'd said he was going to assassinate a government minister or law enforcenment officers that would make more sense as a cover story to pick the guy up. It would have been a lot more straightforward.

The evidence they say they found includes far too much documentary evidence, hitlists, routes, plans etc. I don't believe they have the skills to forge those documents, and saying documents exist guarantees people such as the media are going to want to know whats in them, so any flaws in your forgeries are going to come out. The Venezuelans just aren't that "James Bond level" to come up with a pretend scenario of this complexity and forge the documents they say they have.

The amount of effort and risk to entirely forge a set of documents for an opposition-run false-flag operation against themselves doesn't warrant the value they've gained from picking up one minor party politician, who doesn't even have a wikipedia page.

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Antioch on March 31, 2017, 05:49:55 pm
I see surprisingly little mention of the fact that what the Venezuelan Supreme Court did is nothing else than a coup.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Sergarr on March 31, 2017, 05:57:04 pm
I see surprisingly little mention of the fact that what the Venezuelan Supreme Court did is nothing else than a coup.
Seemingly, the fact that it was done by socialists makes it okay in the eyes of some people. They're the good guys, after all, fighting bravely against the world-wide capitalist conspiracy to keep us all in poverty while enriching themselves, what's a little coup or two? Greater Good is worth such sacrifices!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Helgoland on March 31, 2017, 06:17:22 pm
I think it's mostly the fact that this is Reelya vs The Rest - and since Reels doesn't talk about it, there's hardly any way to get a discussion going. Five posts in a row saying 'I too think this is a bad thing' is not really an interesting read.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: TempAcc on March 31, 2017, 06:27:19 pm
The Organisation of American States, Venezuela's own top prosecutor, the US (through Mark Toner), and pretty much everyone that doesn't completely and utterly fully buy into Maduro's insane and now (even more) openly dictatorial regime has already condemned the whole thing as a coup. There are protests going on in venezuela right now.

In short, everyone, including venezuelans consider it a massive fucking coup and are tired of living under such conditions. You have to go into Alex Jones tier conspiracy theory territory to even consider Maduro anything but a dictator atm.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2017, 07:05:05 pm
I'm not backing up Maduro, but my point was that there are basically no objective sources whatsoever on this topic.

When every article can be shown to have factual errors or glaring omission of important details relevant to understanding the story, those whole publications need to be taken with a grain of salt.

More details about what the crisis actually involves:

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13013

Four politicians elected in 2015 were banned from office due to being involved in bribery/vote buying scandals. The supreme court had ruled that they could not be sworn in because investigations were ongoing.

One of the four bribery suspects was from Maduro's party. He stood down. The other three were from the opposition parties. Those guys did not stand down, but were sworn in despite being banned from office by the courts pending investigations. Note: even without those three guys the opposition would still have a majority, they've snubbed the SC's decision in a attempt to play politics / brinksmanship.

The supreme court declared the assembly as in contempt of court 6 month ago pending removal of the three criminal suspects. 6 months later the three people had still not been removed from office, and the supreme court acted, citing a specific clause in the constitution.

Quote
Appealing to article 336.7 of the Constitution, which allows the TSJ to take “corrective measures” in the case of an “unconstitutional parliamentary default”, the Supreme Court decision also indicated that it would assume the legislature’s constitutional responsibilities until the three offending legislators are removed.

Basically, the assembly has deliberate maintaining this crisis in order to destabilize things and challenge the SC's authority. If they just removed those three legislators who are accused of vote tampering they'd still have a majority and the SC's decision would be annulled. When you have an "out" clause that automatically ends the crisis without actually losing power, the ball is in fact in your court. And it's not a trick the SC could pull off a second time. Those three assemblymen could in fact resign, ending the crisis, and the opposition would still have a majority in the assembly, especially since new elections for those seats would almost certainly elect new opposition candidates.

Quote
Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz expressed opposition to the court’s ruling, arguing it violated the constitution.

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13014

Quote
Venezuela’s Supreme Court has violated the country’s constitution, Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz warned Friday. In a surprise announcement, Ortega said she had identified “several violations of the constitutional order” in the Supreme Court’s (TSJ) controversial decision to assume temporary legislative power.

Maduro's own Attorney General is in fact publicly stating that the Supreme Courts ruling is illegal. If this was a planned power grab then it's a very weird one where Maduro didn't in fact stock the relevant ministries with people who are part of the plan.

This sounds much more like the Supreme Court itself was at risk of losing influence because of having it's rulings ignored, so it's pulled rank to try and get the Assembly to comply with it's ruling on those three criminal suspect / legislators. And this has in fact divided opinion within Maduro's government.

~~~

I was looking up more articles about Attorney General Luisa Ortega Diaz, found out some other things they don't tell you. For example 41 people involved in the riots in 2014 were in prison as of 2015. But 14 of those were actually law enforcement officers. When 1/3rd of the people jailed for being involved in violent protests were actually police officers charged with excessive use of force, then that doesn't actually sound like an out of control dictatorship locking people up for protesting. What sort of dictatorship locks up 1 police officer per 2 protestors?

http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/150211/attorney-general-41-people-still-detained-for-protests-in-2014
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Antioch on March 31, 2017, 08:03:21 pm
You can wrap a turd in gold, but it will still be a turd.

It is a coup that destroys any resemblance of democracy left in the country. It is the final point of no return. It is the destruction of the separation of power.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on March 31, 2017, 08:14:48 pm
To be honest I doubt that, I think the thing will be resolved in a loss of influence for the Supreme Court.

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFKBN1721OY
Here's the Reuters article:
Quote
CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro said on Friday he would resolve within hours controversy over the judiciary's annulment of congress which has sparked opposition protests and condemnation from around the world.

"I hope to have very good news this evening and clear up the controversy generated," Maduro said in a speech, calling a meeting of the state security council to discuss the attorney general's criticism of the Supreme Court's decision.

The court's ruling that it was assuming the functions of the opposition-led National Assembly was lambasted as a "coup" by critics who viewed it as a lurch into dictatorship by the Socialist Party that has ruled for the last 18 years.

Seeking to project himself as above a fray between independent powers and possibly presaging a U-turn by the Supreme Court, Maduro said he had known nothing in advance of its ruling but would immediately address the matter.

He claims to have known nothing of the ruling beforehand. But I think that's plausible because of what he did after the ruling: nothing. If he was planning this he would have had a bunch of presidential decrees or some such ready to go, or declared a state of emergency. But the administration basically took no actions at all in the aftermath of this ruling.

The state security council mentioned is an ad hoc process in which the various branches of government appoint delegates to a special meeting, in order to mediate in case of a constitutional crisis.

Here are a couple of other sources:
http://www.panamatoday.com/international/maduro-calls-security-council-resolve-institutional-conflict-venezuela-3999
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13017

Quote
"I Activated Article 323 in the Constitution  so that tonight the differences that may exist between the Public Ministry and the Supreme Court of Justice are resolved," said the Venezuelan president.

Maduro called the permanent council of the nation after the Chief Prosecutor of Venezuela, Luisa Ortega Diaz, showed "concern" about the rupture of the constitutional order in the country.

So basically, his move has been to pass the issue on to other people. Also from available information this looks more like the Supreme Court itself trying to assert it's authority in the face of being made irrelevant due to the assembly ignoring it's rulings.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2017, 02:56:19 am
This article is probably the best overview of the whole thing available:

https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13018

The main point was that there's no win situation in this for Maduro, at all. Never was. Rather than shoring up Maduro's power the SC's move eroded it right from the start. Maduro hasn't capitalized on it, in fact the whole debacle has cost him political capital. The article points out that Assembly benefits from their being no solution to the stand off. It's the government who want to resolve this, the opposition benefit from the thing exploding. Which is why they constantly flaunted the Supreme Court rulings over the last year, they were trying to provoke something like this.

http://www.squamishchief.com/venezuela-s-top-prosecutor-rebukes-supreme-court-power-grab-1.13578846

Quote
He said that in an effort to calm the political impasse he had called an emergency meeting Friday night of the National Security Council, which includes the president of the National Assembly and Venezuela's chief prosecutor.

"Like all controversy this should be resolved with dialogue," Maduro said.

The National Security Council meeting began hours later, but with at least one key detractor absent. National Assembly president Julio Borges said he would not attend

So you also have the National Assembly being the only people refusing to actually sit down and discuss things. Basically they're the only people benefiting from this situation.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170401-venezuela-maduro-supreme-court-reconsider-strip-congress-powers

And now you have Maduro telling the Supreme Court to reverse it's decision.

Quote
President Nicolas Maduro urged Venezuela's Supreme Court early Saturday to review a decision stripping congress of its last powers, a ruling that set off a storm of criticism from the opposition and foreign governments.

The big lie is that there was some sort of "grand plan" here. There clearly was not.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Glorious Leader Maduro Will Save Us All
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2017, 08:30:25 am
This is the last time I'll bump it, but the defense council (called the security council in some articles) that Maduro asked to be convened a couple of days ago has now demanded the Supreme Court to reverse their decision. This comes after Maduro also urging the SC to reverse the ruling:

http://www.euronews.com/2017/04/01/venezuela-defence-council-opposes-supreme-court

Quote
Venezuela’s Defence Council has called on the Supreme Court to review a controversial decision to annul the opposition-led Congress.

The Council as a body is there to advise the government on matters relating to security and the constitution. It brings together officials from a range of sectors, including the Army, the law, government ministers and other politicians.

https://www.afp.com/en/news/23/venezuelas-maduro-review-court-power-grab

Quote
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced early Saturday the country's Supreme Court would review controversial new rulings which had stripped the country's opposition-controlled legislature of power.

Maduro made the announcement in a brief televised address just after midnight Saturday, hours ahead of planned mass anti-government protests and after his own attorney general broke ranks to condemn the court rulings.

So what's the timeline here? the "coup" ruling came late Wednesday, on thursday Maduro was clearly already planning this security/defense council meeting, the meeting was on Friday, and by early Saturday morning both Maduro and the council are calling on the Supreme Court to reverse their decision. The National Assembly people were supposed to be at that meeting but they boycotted, so the meeting went ahead and Maduro & Co are now pressuring the Supreme Court to drop the ruling on their own.

What sort of "coup" do you have where you start backtracking less than 48 hours later because they people you are having the coup against refused to discuss the matter?

Another point is that the whole time Maduro has been repeatedly asking for discussions with the Assembly people on this matter since his first statement about it on thursday, but at every point they've refused to enter into a dialogue. So Maduro is now overturning the SC's decision on his own.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Teneb on April 01, 2017, 09:09:44 am
To change the topic a bit, Paraguay's congress is on fire. Literally. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/01/paraguays-congress-set-on-fire-after-vote-to-let-president-run-again) Well, was.

The reason being that a vote passed allowing for the president, Horacio Cartes, to be re-elected. Reelection was forbidden in Paraguay because it had led to a brutal dictatorship that only ended in 1989. This charming fellow was inaugurated as president after the previous was impeached (which caused an uproar in the political/trade bloc and almost got Paraguay kicked out of it), and is particularly morally conservative.

During protests, the leader of Paraguay's Liberal Youth was killed by a shot to the head (http://internacional.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,lider-da-juventude-liberal-morre-em-manifestacoes-no-paraguai,70001722785). The Ponte da Amizade (Friendship Bridge (as if)) was blocked by protesters (http://g1.globo.com/pr/oeste-sudoeste/noticia/ponte-da-amizade-e-liberada-apos-manifestacao-contra-aprovacao-da-reeleicao-no-paraguai.ghtml).

Some photos (http://cnnespanol.cnn.com/gallery/paraguay-el-edificio-del-congreso-en-llamas-tras-protestas-por-enmienda-constitucional/).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2017, 09:41:35 am
BTW BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39468045) and nytimes  (https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2017/04/01/world/americas/ap-lt-venezuela-political-crisis-the-latest.html)are both running stories now saying that Venezuela's Supreme Court has dropped the power grab. Mind you, that nytimes story is about the shortest thing they've ever written about Venezuela. It's designed to be a tiny story buried near the back, now let's never mention the story again ...

~~~

The Paraguay story is also a good litmus test on how the international media frames stories based on who's in power. You've got a secret vote in the Senate which implemented a constitutional amendment removing term limits on the President, and you've got opposition groups calling it a coup and conducting protests. So it's a similar type of story to Venezuela.

So how is BBC covering this? Are they screaming about the coup and an attack on democracy? Of course not!

BBC is taking the "out of control violent protestors" angle for Paraguay:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/search?q=paraguay

Not one of the headlines tells you why they're angry, just angry people burnin' stuff, no specific reason ...

But check this out:

Quote
Opposition activist Rodrigo Quintana, 25, was killed by a rubber bullet fired by police when they stormed the offices of the opposition Liberal party, party leader Efrain Alegre told Efe news agency.

"The police barged in, threw people face down to the ground," according to Mr Alegre, who was also hurt. "They came in aggressively, breaking the doors, it was savagery."

So this dead guy wasn't killed while protesting, he was killed when the cops stormed the office of a rival political party to the government. Yet we're still not framing this as a problem for democracy.

The cops don't actually barge into rival political headquarters shooting guns in Venezuela, but the media is giving Paraguay a free pass here and framing the headlines as being the protestors fault? Really?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Teneb on April 01, 2017, 10:20:50 am
The cops don't actually barge into rival political headquarters shooting guns in Venezuela, but the media is giving Paraguay a free pass here and framing the headlines as being the protestors fault? Really?
My guess is that no one likes Paraguay.

I'm only partially being sarcastic, by the way.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2017, 10:35:15 am
There's also the fact that the party pulling off this abolition of term limits in Paraguay are in fact the same party that ran the military dictatorship (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/31/world/americas/paraguay-protests-horacio-cartes.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FParaguay&action=click&contentCollection=world&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=collection) from 1954-1989, then kept getting elected from 1989-2008.

In 2008 they somehow lost an election, but managed to backstab the new president in 2012 and put one of their own people back in, a right-wing tobacco plantation owner. Now, they've conducted secret votes to overturn the constitution so he can keep being re-elected.

And, according to the actual quotes in one of the BBC stories, it was clear the death was because the cops used the chaos as cover to physically storm opposition HQ while firing guns. Cops who clearly still have institutional loyalties to the party that's held the country in an iron grip for 60 years.

The BBC doesn't think that any of this is relevant backstory you need to know to understand the issues here, you just need to know the protestors are crazy fuckers who want to burn everything.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 01, 2017, 11:15:24 am
That's because Paraguay isn't host to the cancer that is socialism. They get a pass, because we know that, eventually, they'll return to the right, correct path of capitalism and democracy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Teneb on April 01, 2017, 11:40:43 am
That's because Paraguay isn't host to the cancer that is socialism. They get a pass, because we know that, eventually, they'll return to the right, correct path of capitalism and democracy.
Tone it down. I know that your country had a bad history with assholes using communism/socialism as an excuse to be totalitarian, but capitalism isn't all rainbows and sunshine either. Because while you were having your communist dictatorship, my country had a far-right, US-backed military dictatorship, as did pretty much every country in this continent.

Communism/Socialism is about as bad as Capitalism. Which is to say, they are both very pretty on paper and extremely abusable (is this even a word?) in practice.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: TheBiggerFish on April 01, 2017, 11:44:01 am
I believe that was sarcasm.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Teneb on April 01, 2017, 11:54:09 am
I believe that was sarcasm.
Nah, he's posted stuff like this over various threads.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 01, 2017, 02:51:31 pm
That's because Paraguay isn't host to the cancer that is socialism. They get a pass, because we know that, eventually, they'll return to the right, correct path of capitalism and democracy.
Tone it down. I know that your country had a bad history with assholes using communism/socialism as an excuse to be totalitarian, but capitalism isn't all rainbows and sunshine either. Because while you were having your communist dictatorship, my country had a far-right, US-backed military dictatorship, as did pretty much every country in this continent.

Communism/Socialism is about as bad as Capitalism. Which is to say, they are both very pretty on paper and extremely abusable (is this even a word?) in practice.
...you must be joking. Equalizing socialism with capitalism?! Socialism has killed several dozen million people through famines! Socialism was so bad that it was maintained almost solely through the force of arms - everyone sane fucking ran towards capitalism the moment USSR has stopped actively suppressing movements for freedom and sovereignty!

How can you look at all that and say "oh but they're actually both just as shitty"? The most obvious counter-argument here is that, unlike with capitalism, there is no "nice" variant of socialism, it's all complete shit.

You don't want your country to suffer for decades under the oppressive Red jackboot? Then don't choose socialism. Ever. Please.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2017, 11:11:43 pm
Depends what you're measuring. What about life expectancy?

(http://www.rainbowbuilders.org/development/life-expectancy-china-russia-indonesia-philippines.png)

Russia was way behind, but almost completely caught up to France and the USA during the 1950s. It tanked after 1990, but is rising again, but not like the postwar period.

China meanwhile are still basically commies and their life expectancy is rocketing past Russia's now. Also note other Asian nations on the list which are strongly lagging in life expectancy and are not in any way socialists.

Also consider infant mortality rates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate#List_by_the_World_Health_Organization

Good ol' capitalist India has an infanty mortality rate of 30 / 1000 live births, whereas evil communist China has an infant mortality rate of 12 / 1000 live births.

Quote
India does not have a National health insurance or universal health care system for all its citizens which has allowed the private sector to become the dominant healthcare provider in the country.

So good one India! You kill an extra 18 babies per 1000 births compared to China, by leaving it to the "magic of capitalism"! That's 1.8% of everyone born in India killed unnecessarily in the name of capitalism.

Just counting against the 1.34 billion people alive in India right now, they're missing 25 extra million siblings who died as babies due to having a private health system. And of course that doesn't count the missing siblings of other people who have been born there since the end of WWII, at which point China and Japan developed socialized healthcare and India did not. The total extra infant death toll for capitalism in India since WWII is around 100 million avoidable deaths.

And that's not even counting any other cause of mortality, all of which are higher in India than asian countries with socialized medicine. Indians lose 10 years off their lives on Average compared to the Chinese. If you calculate the death toll in terms of years of life lost, they lose 1/7th of their entire lives to the joys of capiltalism.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: redwallzyl on April 01, 2017, 11:28:47 pm
interesting how china's life expectancy just vanishes. wonder why that was, no data maybe.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 01, 2017, 11:44:17 pm
Lack of data and political fragmentation combined. There kind of needs to be someone to collect the data, which implies a stable government.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate
Edited with better data. I'd heard that India's private health system could be blamed for a lot of deaths but I never actually figured out the numbers before. The gap is indeed huge. 4.8% of Indians die before their 5th birthday compared to only 1.1% of Chinese. The Chinese have reduce infant mortality by a factor of 11 since 1950, whereas India only reduced it by a factor of 4.

The difference is socialized medicine vs India's for-profit healthcare system. Assuming India should have reduced infant deaths by the same factor as China to be equal, they should have a current under-5 death rate of about 1.6%. That would be roughly an equal improvement to China, based on where they started from.

So for every currently living Indian there are a missing 3.2% of the population who are their dead siblings killed by the capitalist medical system, who would be alive if India kept pace with China. That's 42 million people, and it doesn't count missing siblings of already-dead people, missing children they would have had, nor does it take into account that Indians only live 65 years to Chinese 75 years, when in fact, up to the 1950s, it was Indians who lived longer. Every Indian is missing 1/7th of their lives compared to the Chinese - this figure takes infant mortality into account however. Since everyone dies eventually, the only relative measure that makes sense is to measure how many lifetimes worth of time have been lost in one system vs the other. Since each Indian has lost 1/7th of their lifespan compared to China, that's about 200 million extra lost lifetimes worth of living for the current 1.4 billion Indian people because India's healthcare didn't improve as rapidly as China.

I've read figures from years ago estimating that capitalist deprivations killed 100 million Indians unnecessarily, and just crunching the infant mortality rates and lower life expectancy data backs that up.

Lives lost unnecessarily from India's shitty capilalist healthcare system post-WWII is the biggest genocide in history.

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 08:06:28 am
Depends what you're measuring. What about life expectancy?

(http://www.rainbowbuilders.org/development/life-expectancy-china-russia-indonesia-philippines.png)

Russia was way behind, but almost completely caught up to France and the USA during the 1950s. It tanked after 1990, but is rising again, but not like the postwar period.
By "almost caught up" you mean "barely reached within the region of 5 years and then started to fall off again"? And, speaking of fast rising, look at capitalist France in post-war period. Now that's fast.

China meanwhile are still basically commies and their life expectancy is rocketing past Russia's now. Also note other Asian nations on the list which are strongly lagging in life expectancy and are not in any way socialists.
And by "basically commies" you mean "economically almost entirely capitalist", right. Historically, when they were economically socialist, their life expectancy was in the gutter. As seen on this very graph. This graph is also omitting quite a few of the Asian capitalist countries with long life expectancy, such as South Korea, Japan and Singapore. As for the others, I've heard that their problems are mostly due to massive corruption - an issue that plagues even capitalist nations. Though, in socialism it would've been definitely worse.

Also consider infant mortality rates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate#List_by_the_World_Health_Organization

Good ol' capitalist India has an infanty mortality rate of 30 / 1000 live births, whereas evil communist China has an infant mortality rate of 12 / 1000 live births.

Quote
India does not have a National health insurance or universal health care system for all its citizens which has allowed the private sector to become the dominant healthcare provider in the country.

So good one India! You kill an extra 18 babies per 1000 births compared to China, by leaving it to the "magic of capitalism"! That's 1.8% of everyone born in India killed unnecessarily in the name of capitalism.

Just counting against the 1.34 billion people alive in India right now, they're missing 25 extra million siblings who died as babies due to having a private health system. And of course that doesn't count the missing siblings of other people who have been born there since the end of WWII, at which point China and Japan developed socialized healthcare and India did not. The total extra infant death toll for capitalism in India since WWII is around 100 million avoidable deaths.

And that's not even counting any other cause of mortality, all of which are higher in India than asian countries with socialized medicine. Indians lose 10 years off their lives on Average compared to the Chinese. If you calculate the death toll in terms of years of life lost, they lose 1/7th of their entire lives to the joys of capiltalism.
China isn't communist in the part that matters here - economically, they're very much capitalist.

Lack of data and political fragmentation combined. There kind of needs to be someone to collect the data, which implies a stable government.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.DYN.MORT
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_infant_mortality_rate
Edited with better data. I'd heard that India's private health system could be blamed for a lot of deaths but I never actually figured out the numbers before. The gap is indeed huge. 4.8% of Indians die before their 5th birthday compared to only 1.1% of Chinese. The Chinese have reduce infant mortality by a factor of 11 since 1950, whereas India only reduced it by a factor of 4.

The difference is socialized medicine vs India's for-profit healthcare system. Assuming India should have reduced infant deaths by the same factor as China to be equal, they should have a current under-5 death rate of about 1.6%. That would be roughly an equal improvement to China, based on where they started from.

So for every currently living Indian there are a missing 3.2% of the population who are their dead siblings killed by the capitalist medical system, who would be alive if India kept pace with China. That's 42 million people, and it doesn't count missing siblings of already-dead people, missing children they would have had, nor does it take into account that Indians only live 65 years to Chinese 75 years, when in fact, up to the 1950s, it was Indians who lived longer. Every Indian is missing 1/7th of their lives compared to the Chinese - this figure takes infant mortality into account however. Since everyone dies eventually, the only relative measure that makes sense is to measure how many lifetimes worth of time have been lost in one system vs the other. Since each Indian has lost 1/7th of their lifespan compared to China, that's about 200 million extra lost lifetimes worth of living for the current 1.4 billion Indian people because India's healthcare didn't improve as rapidly as China.

I've read figures from years ago estimating that capitalist deprivations killed 100 million Indians unnecessarily, and just crunching the infant mortality rates and lower life expectancy data backs that up.

Lives lost unnecessarily from India's shitty capilalist healthcare system post-WWII is the biggest genocide in history.


Again, what you call as "socialized medicine" is actually capitalist medicine, as it's economically more effective than the "for-profit alternative". What you should be blaming here is corruption that influences things towards being more profitable for the local parts that are directing this corruption, rather than for the economy as a whole.

Same deal as with USA and Europe, really - USA is just simply more corrupt. Corruption is the issue here, not that "it's more capitalist". And it's not an issue that can be fixed by going socialist - in fact, it's far more likely to make the issue worse, much worse, because socialism naturally attracts the worst kind of corrupt individuals to the positions of power. Which is yet another reason why it's a failed ideology that should never again be implemented in another country.

Never again!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: smjjames on April 02, 2017, 08:42:12 am
USA is more corrupt than Europe (and Russia IS an European country, like it or not)? Look who's talking, Sergarr.... pfft.

Don't mistake partianship for corruption though. The Republicans are terrible in general however, so, there's that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 09:04:54 am
USA is more corrupt than Europe (and Russia IS an European country, like it or not)? Look who's talking, Sergarr.... pfft.

Don't mistake partianship for corruption though. The Republicans are terrible in general however, so, there's that.
It's not particularly controversial, most of European countries are ruled by, more or less, reasonable people, while America has always had about half of its politicians (mostly from the South of USA) be bugfuck-crazy-what-the-fuck corrupt tier.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 10:27:57 am
I think calling government run healthcare "capitalist medicine" because it's more efficient is in fact a cop-out. The fact is, from whatever raft of causes, China has much better health outcomes since 1950 than India. It's not just healthcare it's the aggregate result of all the things they did compared to India. You can't really put deaths at the feet of socialism then label lowe rates of death in socialist nations as being nothing to do with socialism. It's not a consistent argument.

For every North Korea or Russia you have a China or Cuba, who have very low rates of infant mortality and high life expectancies. Saying Socialism causes famine is all well and good, but then you have to explain those fairly hardline socialist nations which have notably good health outcomes, despite 57 years of economic blockade in Cuba's case.

Cuba's infant mortality and life expectancy rival the wealthiest developed nations in the world. But they shouldn't be so good. The most fair comparision would be against similar-sized nations in the Carribbean, e.g. Dominican Republic / Haiti.

Cuba, Dominican Republic and Haiti are the three most populated nations in the Carribbean, with about 10-11 million people each. When talking about whether Cuba succeeded or not, those are the two relative comparisons. Cuba's expected trajectory should have been in that vicinity.

Haiti is a complete basket case, so we could count them as a fail of market economy in delivering a good life. But let's discount that for the sake of argument and compare health outcomes in Dominican Republic (often lauded as a success story) vs Cuba. Dominican republic has infant mortality of 25 / 1000, compared to 4.7 / 1000 in Cuba. The free market kills 2% of all Dominican babies compared to your chances of survival in Cuba. And that's not even taking into account that Dominican Republic has much more access to export markets than Cuba, which has been under a blockade since 1960. How would Cuba be if they were not artificially blockaded?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 10:58:20 am
I think calling government run healthcare "capitalist medicine" because it's more efficient is in fact a cop-out.
It's not when almost every first-world capitalist nation has one. USA is really the big exception here.

The fact is, from whatever raft of causes, China has much better health outcomes since 1950 than India. It's not just healthcare it's the aggregate result of all the things they did compared to India. You can't really put deaths at the feet of socialism then label lowe rates of death in socialist nations as being nothing to do with socialism. It's not a consistent argument.

For every North Korea or Russia you have a China or Cuba, who have very low rates of infant mortality and high life expectancies. Saying Socialism causes famine is all well and good, but then you have to explain those fairly hardline socialist nations which have notably good health outcomes, despite 57 years of economic blockade in Cuba's case.

Cuba's infant mortality and life expectancy rival the wealthiest developed nations in the world. But they shouldn't be so good. The most fair comparision would be against similar-sized nations in the Carribbean, e.g. Dominican Republic / Haiti.

Cuba, Dominican Republic and Haiti are the three most populated nations in the Carribbean, with about 10-11 million people each. When talking about whether Cuba succeeded or not, those are the two relative comparisons. Cuba's expected trajectory should have been in that vicinity.

Haiti is a complete basket case, so we could count them as a fail of market economy in delivering a good life. But let's discount that for the sake of argument and compare health outcomes in Dominican Republic (often lauded as a success story) vs Cuba. Dominican republic has infant mortality of 25 / 1000, compared to 4.7 / 1000 in Cuba. The free market kills 2% of all Dominican babies compared to your chances of survival in Cuba. And that's not even taking into account that Dominican Republic has much more access to export markets than Cuba, which has been under a blockade since 1960. How would Cuba be if they were not artificially blockaded?
From what I've heard, Cuban (and Chinese) statistics are heavily edited by the government. Because, you know, the polling is run by them. There's no independent oversight in Cuba/China to prevent this, after all. And no reason for them to release true information - they've got to spread the message of how wonderful socialism is!

More so, why are you only looking at the statistics of life expectancy and infant mortality? Life is pretty useless if it's spent in slavery or slavery-like conditions - and that's what the majority of people in socialist countries face.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 11:12:48 am
Slaves don't tend to live long lives. Being in prison for example takes a heavy toll on life expectancy. For example it's estimated that each 1 year in prison shortens your life expectancy by two years:
https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2013/02/05/prison-sentence-take-release/

Also other secondary statistics do validate that Cuba's life expectancy is high. For example median age in Cuba is 43 vs 27 for Dominican Republic, which is a more difficult stat to fake, because observers can in fact see the people who are alive. Similarly, median age is 10 years more in China than India. China's median age is very close to the USA.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 11:18:15 am
Slaves don't tend to live long lives.
Well-maintained ones do. The people in socialist countries certainly weren't very free in choosing their lives, like, at all.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 11:23:04 am
People in dirt poor market economies have similarly shitty choices however. you're free to live by scraping poop out of the sewage pipe, dying it out and selling it as cooking fuel that kills people's kids. There are in fact many "free" societies with people who live on rubbish tips and collect poop for a living.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Frumple on April 02, 2017, 11:30:21 am
I think calling government run healthcare "capitalist medicine" because it's more efficient is in fact a cop-out.
It's not when almost every first-world capitalist nation has one. USA is really the big exception here.
It... really kinda' is a cop-out, or more specifically just outright untrue. Government run healthcare is usually pretty specifically anti-capitalist, and heavily controlled by government specifically because capitalist systems break down and stop working right with certain industries (especially with anything approaching normal consumer/market interactions), healthcare among them. The optimization capability and advantages of capitalism requires market forces to be able to work appropriately to function -- customers have to be able to have choices, chances to deliberate on them, be interacting with a market that has actual competition, a legitimate choice to opt out, etc., etc. -- and there's a fair bundle of shit where they just don't, where it's very much physically impossible just due to the nature of the market for it to give the necessary signals for someone operating under primarily capitalist methodology to get a good results and often even a barely mediocre one. Similarly, there's quite a number where they do more than not and non-market interference is going to cause resource misallocation. One is where you curtail or eliminate capitalist economic implementation. The other is where you use it.

Trying to run a pure capitalist or pure socialist or pure just about anything in terms of economics is what is technically called by anyone in the field with two brain cells to rub together "massively goddamn stupid". You use what works for a specific economic issue. If that's capitalist economics and a mostly uncontrolled market, good, use that. If it's socialist/state-run control and a tightly controlled or non-existent market (so far as free market stuff goes), then you use that. Every major developed country is called a mixed market economy for a reason. Capitalism does not work on a national scale on its own. Socialism has serious problems as well. Most ideologically pure economic systems, or things very close in alignment with them, similarly fuck up. An economy is not a box of nails that can be drove into place with the same hammer. A suite of problems that cannot be solved with the same solution requires the use of a different solution or the problem is going to either stay or get worse.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 11:36:12 am
I think capitalism fails any time that something terrible will happen if you don't get the product. Because at that point the idea of freely choosing goes out the window, and now you're under someone thumb. So ... coke or pepsi is benign. You can pick one, the other, or neither and it's your choice. Whereas drug addiction or life-saving medicine. Leave those to "the market" and you suddenly have a crisis.

A slightly artificial example would be water. Charging some service fee for tap water in the city is one thing. Even if it's not a choice of provider, usually the government will heavily restrict the pricing, because they don't want a crisis over it. But how about free market pricing of bottled water to people dying of thirst in the desert? Suddenly you have a Lord of the Flies situation.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 11:41:37 am
I think calling government run healthcare "capitalist medicine" because it's more efficient is in fact a cop-out.
It's not when almost every first-world capitalist nation has one. USA is really the big exception here.
It... really kinda' is a cop-out, or more specifically just outright untrue. Government run healthcare is usually pretty specifically anti-capitalist, and heavily controlled by government specifically because capitalist systems break down and stop working right with certain industries (especially with anything approaching normal consumer/market interactions), healthcare among them. The optimization capability and advantages of capitalism requires market forces to be able to work appropriately to function -- customers have to be able to have choices, chances to deliberate on them, be interacting with a market that has actual competition, a legitimate choice to opt out, etc., etc. -- and there's a fair bundle of shit where they just don't, where it's very much physically impossible just due to the nature of the market for it to give the necessary signals for someone operating under primarily capitalist methodology to get a good results and often even a barely mediocre one. Similarly, there's quite a number where they do more than not and non-market interference is going to cause resource misallocation. One is where you curtail or eliminate capitalist economic implementation. The other is where you use it.

Trying to run a pure capitalist or pure socialist or pure just about anything in terms of economics is what is technically called by anyone in the field with two brain cells to rub together "massively goddamn stupid". You use what works for a specific economic issue. If that's capitalist economics and a mostly uncontrolled market, good, use that. If it's socialist/state-run control and a tightly controlled or non-existent market (so far as free market stuff goes), then you use that. Every major developed country is called a mixed market economy for a reason. Capitalism does not work on a national scale on its own. Socialism has serious problems as well. Most ideologically pure economic systems, or things very close in alignment with them, similarly fuck up. An economy is not a box of nails that can be drove into place with the same hammer. A suite of problems that cannot be solved with the same solution requires the use of a different solution or the problem is going to either stay or get worse.
Mixed economy is really just rebranded capitalism. Most of the supposed "socialist" changes they make are inherently capitalist in purpose - they maximize profit. It's just that, they maximize long-term profit, unlike the bog-standard "pure" capitalism, which focuses on short-term one.

Socialism, meanwhile, doesn't maximize anything at all, except for the degree to which the government is able to rule over the entire society. It's fit for control freaks, who get to be at the top. For anyone else, it's somewhat better than feudalism, but mostly only because of technological improvements.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Frumple on April 02, 2017, 11:49:23 am
... no, serg. They're not just rebranded capitalism. Like, as someone from a (mostly) capitalist country with capitalist economic and business training. That ain't how it works. Words mean things and all that, and capitalism has a fairly specific meaning. It's not a synonym for mixed market, which is a term that was coined because it incorporates things from non-capitalist economic methodology.

And that's fine. Capitalism failing at points means jack-all if we have solutions, and we do. It's still got a lot of good stuff, but it's a failed ideology so far as a robust and well functioning economy goes.
I think capitalism fails any time that something terrible will happen if you don't get the product. Because at that point the idea of freely choosing goes out the window, and now you're under someone thumb.
Pretty much? The failure points of a capitalist system aren't exactly a mystery. Markets need a certain set of conditions to operate at peak optimization efficiency, and the more (and more important) conditions that are lacking, the worse it does -- and there's very much a point where it starts being a net negative. Most vital or emergency services, most infrastructure, and many activities that are valuable elsewhere but unprofitable for the producer are things rife with practical examples. Some things just can't really be turned into a functioning market, which is where a third party needs to come in and a market either controlled or prevented.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 12:12:47 pm
There's also the fact that none of the previous communist states even qualifies as socialist, let alone communist according to Marx's definition. Lenin called his system "state capitalism" because it was actually a "rebranded capitalism". It was 100% based on existing capitalist management systems, just state-owned ones. The promise was "maybe socialism at some point in the future". But they didn't in fact claim that the current system was an implementation of marxism, because it blatantly wasn't.

In fact, Marx's idea of historical materialism requires you to let the current stage fully develop, and the idea is that changes in technology inevitably evolve that to the next stage. e.g. feudalism -> mercantilism -> capitalism. Marx proposed future stages that society would develop through in the end stages of capitalism.  But getting to the end stages of capitalism requires that you let the advanced capitalist society be developed. e.g. Marx wrote that the final stage would come about when production was automated to the point that wages for labor no longer made sense, then society would shift according to that basis, that a man's worth wasn't tied to his labor.

Enshrining a "worker's state" with a lower level of technology than that isn't "Communism" at all, because it's the exact opposite of what Marx said it would be. A worker's state resists the advance of automation, because a worker's state enshrines the relation that the only value is labor, when in fact Marx says Communism comes about when labor itself is obsolete.

In fact, if you look at the advanced capitalist nations they are in fact the ones that built the welfare states, and they are the ones talking about implementing minimum universal income. Those ideas are actually Communist in the sense of Marxist theory, and it backs up what Marx said about socialism->communism being an inevitable result of the development of advanced late-stage capitalism.

Some of the fracturing in the West e.g. Trump are probably the last throes of the old-way of doing things. It's probably not a coincidence that people who want old-school manufaturing back elect a "Trump" at the very point we're talking about a complete automation of production and how to allocate resources in such a world. That's what Marx called socialism/communism.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 12:23:29 pm
-snip-
I'll just say that "mixed" is really not a descriptive word.

-snip-
Can't we get a better word for that, free of associations with some of the worst regimes on the planet? I'd like to spread good ideas in countries like Poland and Estonia without a risk of getting misunderstood as a defender of tyrannical regime that oppressed their countries.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Frumple on April 02, 2017, 12:38:08 pm
Regardless of being descriptive, it has a fairly specific meaning. Refers to economies that mix market and state-run/non-market solutions, the latter of which is pretty much inimical to capitalist ideology and most of its methodology. Usually it's an economy that's mixed capitalism with the aspects of socialism or communism (if often more the economic ideologies than the practical implementations we've seen) that work to offset the areas where the former fails. Generally just functionally means the government has taken control in practice if not explicit law of certain major industries, to (attempt to) ensure their goals are specific results rather than profit.

If you really want to avoid using the term socialism 'cause it's as poisoned and largely devoid of substantive meaning as it is in the states in whatever context you're involved with, just replace references with "state-run", "non-profit", or "non-market solutions", stuff like that. You can talk about safety nets, infrastructure building, curtailing excesses, etc. You're still functionally talking about socialist or communist economic ideology, but it's not like you necessarily have to use the specific terms.

E: Though all that said, part of the point is that capitalism also has some rather bad ideas. Part of being a good advocate for a set of ideology and methodology like capitalism bundles up is being aware of its failings and limitations. And capitalism definitely has some. Do remember that if you're going hard for capitalism you're also defending stuff like the east india company, the business end of banana republics and whatnot, or all the shit businesses get up to environmentally if left unchecked (I'm pretty sure there's still parts of the US that are literally unliveable due to industrial pollutants, decades after the dumping was stopped). There's plenty of nasty shit going on with the stuff, and glossing over it does whoever you're discussing with no more favors than speaking of socialism without acknowledging the major implementation attempts have trended strongly towards bloody atrocity.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 12:46:51 pm
"Social democracy" is a good enough term for the purposes. It's actually far closer to what Marx wanted than any dictatorship.

"Post-automation society" could be another useful term, because you can use that to describe Marx's post-capitalist phase in a way that people are going to get. e.g. you can say that "in a post-automation society we're going to have to rethink how we allocate resources in a way that's fair to everyone in society, since wages for labor will be an obsolete idea".

This boils down what Marx said, but without much fear of being misunderstood as wanting to create some sort of retro worker's state.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Sergarr on April 02, 2017, 01:06:06 pm
E: Though all that said, part of the point is that capitalism also has some rather bad ideas. Part of being a good advocate for a set of ideology and methodology like capitalism bundles up is being aware of its failings and limitations. And capitalism definitely has some. Do remember that if you're going hard for capitalism you're also defending stuff like the east india company, the business end of banana republics and whatnot, or all the shit businesses get up to environmentally if left unchecked (I'm pretty sure there's still parts of the US that are literally unliveable due to industrial pollutants, decades after the dumping was stopped). There's plenty of nasty shit going on with the stuff, and glossing over it does whoever you're discussing with no more favors than speaking of socialism without acknowledging the major implementation attempts have trended strongly towards bloody atrocity.
If you haven't noticed, I'm mostly against short-term profit related stuff like that, so you must have misunderstood me somewhere. It seems that there are significant differences in how different people use the word "capitalism".

"Social democracy" is a good enough term for the purposes. It's actually far closer to what Marx wanted than any dictatorship.

"Post-automation society" could be another useful term, because you can use that to describe Marx's post-capitalist phase in a way that people are going to get. e.g. you can say that "in a post-automation society we're going to have to rethink how we allocate resources in a way that's fair to everyone in society, since wages for labor will be an obsolete idea".

This boils down what Marx said, but without much fear of being misunderstood as wanting to create some sort of retro worker's state.
I'm not sure if "post-automation society" is all that good, either. For different reason, though - propaganda in capitalist corruption-infested countries have been working pretty tirelessly to make people fear the automation more than they fear working their entire lives on shitty wages, and it has mostly succeeded.

Social democracy's pretty okay.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Frumple on April 02, 2017, 02:00:50 pm
Eh, you're largely just conflating capitalism+ (i.e. mixed market stuff or derivative ideologies) with capitalism. It's easy to do when you have actors on the world stage that would stab you in the eye before they admit something they're doing is socialist or whathaveyou (e.g. the U.S.). There's places where you deal with similar issues with the term capitalist, iirc, where related countries have hard fucked the local people in the name of profit.

Though it's not really a matter of short vs. long term profit, unless you're counting multi-millennial/generational stuff at which point you are way, way outside the bounds of what capitalism is and might still not be sufficient. It's a matter of profit versus non-profit, things that can produce the desired results via profit motive (regardless of scale) and things that can't. If it requires non-market intervention to achieve the desired results, you're no longer dealing with capitalism on its own, and the more intervention required the less you're dealing with capitalism at all, as its fundamental mechanics become increasingly less involved. When you hit the point of government takeover whatever you're dealing with isn't capitalism anymore, though it may still utilize aspects.

Companies that are dumping waste or undermining governments haven't necessarily failed to consider long term profit... it's entirely possible they've just considered it and the results of their calculations came up deadland or puppet state. Which is very much a potentiality, just like it's an aspect of accounting and whatnot to calculate how many people your company's product(s) can kill before the second order effects start costing you more than preventing the deaths do... and outlays into the decades or centuries can still very easily end up with a substantial number of new graves, even if you calculate the knock on economic effect of the dead (which is generally not something a business does, especially beyond whatever scope directly impacts their market or customer base). I've actually crunched numbers like that as class assignments before, heh. Long term view isn't a panacea for capitalism's issues, unfortunately, never mind that vanishingly few practitioners care about it and largely because the nature of the thing provides very strong incentives to focus on the now. Helps in some cases, but it's not enough on its own.

What it boils down to is that if your goal is not profit and the effects of profit, then capitalism is not necessarily your preferred solution for reaching that goal, if it's a solution at all. Ignoring that is... not something you want to do. Glossing over it when the issues related to it cause fairly regular disaster isn't exactly a good idea, either.

... also probably worth noting that most proponents of socialism et al are also against the expressions of excess and misuse related to their ideology. If they're not allowed to discard the nasty bits of their ideology you certainly don't get to discard yours, heh.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 02:44:35 pm
... also probably worth noting that most proponents of socialism et al are also against the expressions of excess and misuse related to their ideology. If they're not allowed to discard the nasty bits of their ideology you certainly don't get to discard yours, heh.

Yeah, 'proper' socialists believe in worker's control of the factories / production. Basically bottom-up organization. That is: specifically, the people in the factory own the factory, run the factory, vote on what happens there, and do not owe "rent" to any landlord, boss, king or country. That is the basic "holy grail" idea. In marx's terminology that was what the basic unit of the "commune" was meant to be. if someone from outside the factory is imposing their will on you, then it defeats the very core of this idea.

Early socialists were e.g. dead against the concept of taxation, because it was viewed that taking taxes was just replacing a private exploiter with a government one. In Marx's time the socialists only grudglingly acceded that some amount of taxation would in fact be needed to pay for roads and similar shared infrastructure.

But in such a system, the market would be alive and well. If each factory is effectively democratic and autonomous, then each one will seek to maximize their share of total resources, meaning there will still be a push and shove over prices and value of exchange. Any time you have autonomous groups exchanging resources, you're going to have optimization processes going on. If you're agreeing on how many loaves of bread are worth one pair of shoes from your shoe factory, then a more efficient shoe factory will undercut you to expand their access to resources. This can totally happen, even if there are no such thing as bosses and owners, or formal markets.

It's a myth that in pure Marxism there will be no personal incentives. Basically they deliberately conflate two different ideas: the soviet-style idea of uniformity, with the marxist idea of worker's owning and running factories. In fact, those two ideas are a world apart. In a standard theory Marxist factory, each factory would have 100% of it's profits share among the employees, so paychecks will in fact be more sensitive to productivity, not less. Basically, corporations fear worker controlled ventures taking off so they conflate the idea of worker control (which boosts incentives) with state control / standardized wages (which lowers incentives). In fact, anywhere that standardizes wages will lose incentives, it won't matter if your commie or capitalist. Only an idiot busts a gut for minimum wage.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Frumple on April 02, 2017, 03:02:34 pm
... and today I learn that wanting to be able to eat on the paycheck you make makes you an idiot. Oy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 02, 2017, 03:10:28 pm
My point was that working harder than the minimum when you're only being paid the minimum makes you an idiot. Is the boss going to reward you for working your colleagues out of a job? Or is he going to pocket the profits?

You've seen those videos on how easy it is to trick people with social conditioning? If one person works really hard for minimum wage the boss could exploit that to create a situation in which your level of effort is now the group norm for earning that wage. This is the reason working too hard is actually a hostile act to your co-workers. If everyone pushes an extra 10% then the boss will sack the slowest 10% of your co-workers, and now 110% is the new minimum acceptable effort.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Helgoland on April 04, 2017, 03:11:35 pm
"Social democracy" is a good enough term for the purposes. It's actually far closer to what Marx wanted than any dictatorship.
Citation needed, badly. Not only do Social Democrats not believe in the Revolution, not only are they the nemesis of the Communists - look up 'social fascism' if you're not familiar with the term -, no, they do not even pursue the goals of collectivization of the means of production and abolishment of a Capitalist, market-dominated economy!


"Post-automation society" could be another useful term, because you can use that to describe Marx's post-capitalist phase in a way that people are going to get. e.g. you can say that "in a post-automation society we're going to have to rethink how we allocate resources in a way that's fair to everyone in society, since wages for labor will be an obsolete idea".

This boils down what Marx said, but without much fear of being misunderstood as wanting to create some sort of retro worker's state.
Heh, MSH slapped me down a couple days ago for claiming precisely that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Amperzand on April 04, 2017, 06:20:11 pm
Boy, this looks like an interesting ramble of a thread.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 05, 2017, 11:16:06 am
"Social democracy" is a good enough term for the purposes. It's actually far closer to what Marx wanted than any dictatorship.
Citation needed, badly. Not only do Social Democrats not believe in the Revolution, not only are they the nemesis of the Communists - look up 'social fascism' if you're not familiar with the term -, no, they do not even pursue the goals of collectivization of the means of production and abolishment of a Capitalist, market-dominated economy!

Those arguments don't make a lick of sense.

Marx's revolution is one in the sense of "industrial revolution".

https://socialistworker.org/2010/10/14/marxs-theory-of-revolution

Quote
As Marx continued:

At a certain stage of their development, the material productive forces of society come into conflict with the existing relations of production, or (and this is simply a legal expression of the same thing), with the property relations within which they have operated up to that time. These relations change from forms of development of the productive forces into their fetters. There then begins an epoch of social revolution.

This is Marx talking about previous shifts in social means of production. They're all revolutions too. "Revolution" in Marx's writing is in the sense of "industrial revolution" not "french revolution". What Marx is arguing here is that eventually the economic relations of capitalism will become strained as the means of production develops. Then there will be shifts in the sociopolitical order as the power of various groups in society changes.

For an example of "the material productive forces of society" coming into conflict with "the property relations within which they have operated up to that time" look at music piracy. The productive forces of society dictate that you can get any song for free, whereas the property relations within which they have operated up to that time don't like the new reality. Hence, you have social conflict over music sharing. Then, gradually a new order arises in which you can legally buy any song for a few cents. This is what a social revolution in the means of production actually looks like. People committing crimes because the laws don't make economic sense any more, then gradually what was unthinkable becomes the norm.

Quote
At the heart of Marxism is the understanding that history's Great Men--its Great Villains, too--and their Great Ideas are the product of the material conditions and social relationships that shape people's lives, not the other way around. Marx called his approach "the materialist conception of history"--"materialist" because it starts with concrete material conditions rather than ideas, "history" because it recognizes that those conditions and the social relationships that spring from them change.

Marx argued that the material development of society by necessity causes it to develop through stages and it is this that is what drives history, not big events or famous people. Which is actually counter to the idea of needing a special "revolution" in the sense of a special one-off event. The idea of a "big event" (the revolution) that changes history is actually completely at odds with Marx's "materialist conception of history", which states that it is economic relations, not events and dates that drives history.

Remember that when Marx was writing, kings, emperor and industry barons had all the power and most people couldn't even vote. Marx argued that as capitalism developed, the economic power of the working class would rise and they would gain political power. That is the stage he called "Socialism". And it's exactly what we see today, you have universal right to vote and you have near-universal welfare systems. Compare that to the time Marx was alive and Marx's predictions about working-class power.

Marx's final stage, communism, he said that in that stage, the level of productivity would rise so far as to make wage labor obsolete, which is the thing we're all talking about these days, how to provide for people when there are no job, so we'll implement universal income. Universal income free from labor is Marxist communism.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heated Politics Edition
Post by: Helgoland on April 05, 2017, 03:01:31 pm
I am indeed familiar with Marx' use of dialectics - I personally wouldn't use the word 'revolution' in this context, though I guess it's possible. You do yo. But, pray tell, how do you think did Marx envision the 'dictatorship of the proletariat' coming to power if not through a revolution in the classical sense?

One of the key criticisms of Marx' thought was his insistence on revolution, as prescribed by the step-by-step structure of dialectics, and opposition to reformist thinking à la Social Democracy. Sweeping concepts like the class struggle* under the rug merely to make socialist lingo admissible in polite society is a great injustice to a great thinker.


*Klassenkampf sounds so much better.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Comrade Marx Wants You!
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2017, 03:55:23 am
Basically because Marx was talking about class dominance, not political dominance of the state. Especially since Marx contended that the concept of nation states would be eroded. Since Marx was talking about the collapse of the concept of the state as we know it, the idea of a group gaining dominance through usurping the state mechanisms isn't in line with Marx's theories.

Because Marx's whole point was that economic dominance EQUALS political dominance. So when he talks about the rise of the proletariat he's talking about them rising to be the dominant social class, as it was when the bourgeoisie rose to dominance over the feudal lords.

But Marx is talking about whole classes being in dictatorship, not representatives. What does it mean for the entire mass of common men to be the dictators? It means for the masses to have control of who is elected to politics, i.e. democracy. Marx and Engels pointed at a concrete example of what they meant:

Quote
Both Marx and Engels argued that the short-lived Paris Commune, which ran the French capital for over two months before being repressed, was an example of the dictatorship of the proletariat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Commune
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Commune#Administration_and_actions

The main element there is that the commune government is made up of elected delegates, and the workers who they represent have the power of recall at any time, if the delegates act in ways that don't conform to the wishes of their electorate. So the workers are the dictators in the sense that they dictate who is in power via voting rights.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Comrade Marx Wants You!
Post by: Helgoland on April 06, 2017, 01:39:30 pm
And you really think that modern democracy is all about the proletariat imposing its will on the subjugated bourgeoisie, collectivizing the means of production in the process?

You must live in a democracy that is very different from the one I am accustomed to.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Comrade Marx Wants You!
Post by: Frumple on April 06, 2017, 02:08:03 pm
I guess if you squint real hard you could sorta' make the argument? It's just that said subjugated bunch have figured out how to largely dictate what that will is despite being dependent on ground level workers for their own lifestyles, and the collectivization is managed through largely capitalist methodology. As desired by the workers. Also parts of the proletariat hates both other parts and/or themselves, so conditions for said proles are not exactly consistent.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: A Return to Heated Politics
Post by: feelotraveller on April 06, 2017, 02:25:25 pm
Not sure we should consider Marx the be all end all (Great Man or not  :P).

The World is much more Hot than he could have anticipated.  I mean this is two senses: that of Marshall McLuhan where a Hot Media/Medium is one that allows little participation (democracy=vote once every four years, or whatever) and that of Global Warming - a material condition not mentioned, as far as I am aware, by Marx.  Really we need a Cool Revolution.

Peace out Peoples.  ;D
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Comrade Marx Wants You!
Post by: Reelya on April 06, 2017, 05:12:37 pm
I'm not saying that, I'm saying we shouldn't characterize his arguments as something they're not. No need to assume he meant an actual dictatorship according to 20th century usage of the word, when he in fact pointed at the Paris Commune as a real example of what he actually meant by "Dictatorship of the Proletariat". If he meant some sort of proto-fascism, he would have had examples in the 19th century of that, which he could point at instead.

But whether or not Marx was right about which specific direction society is heading, his Historical Materialism argument is in fact rock solid. Economic power is political power, but on the level of groups of people with similar economic interests.

Marx was still correct in a "hot" world, as in the current world, large-scale corporations control the economy. And they have the political power, which is entirely in line with Marx.
I'm not sure where global warming contradicts Marx however, it would seem to be utterly tangential.

Marx said a few things, one of which was that large-scale organization would push out "cottage industry" types, which is what we're seeing. When you have a company with 100,000+ employees, it's definitely a collective of some type, it's not driven by personal will any more. Marx's basic thrust is that things are moving from the individual to the collective level of organization. And I'd contend that this is not necessarily false. When a company has 100000+ employees, you can claim the CEO is "in charge" but in fact the collective pressure from those 100000 people does actually heavily constrain what types of actions the CEO can take.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Teneb on April 19, 2017, 09:44:32 am
As usual, you may need to run these past a translator.

First things firts: the president of Paraguay claims he won't be running in 2018 to be re-elected (http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/17/actualidad/1492460014_488719.html), which is significant since his initial intent to do so was what caused the whole shitstorm.

Now, everyone's favorite: Venezuela. Yesterday (18/April), Maduro announced a "Plan Zamora" which is supposed to stop a, his words, coup d'état. Furthermore, it seems that a massive protest will happen today in Caracas. The plan's activation also happened on the same day the congress asked the armed forces to cease oppression of opposition protests. Further, Maduro claims that a member of a "military conspiracy" was detained. Apparently Maduro also handed guns this week to pro-government citizen militias.

Sources:
Portuguese: G1 #1 (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/em-vespera-de-protesto-venezuela-ativa-plano-militar-contra-golpe-de-estado.ghtml), G1 #2 (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/antes-de-novo-protesto-parlamento-venezuelano-pede-a-militares-fim-de-repressao.ghtml)
English: The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/19/venezuela-protests-henrique-capriles-nicolas-maduro), BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39629041)
Spanish: El País #1 (http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/19/america/1492555444_838633.html), El País #2 (http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/19/actualidad/1492599207_825574.html), El País #3 (http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/19/actualidad/1492567998_872008.html), El País #4 (http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/19/actualidad/1492577209_846505.html), El País #5 (http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/04/18/actualidad/1492473867_696194.html)

EDIT:

Colombia plans to complain to the UN that Venezuela is getting too militarized. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/colombia-denunciara-a-onu-militarizacao-de-sociedade-venezuelana.ghtml)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2017, 11:02:20 am
Whatever the internal problems, Colombia's military vastly dwarf Venezuela's.

http://nacla.org/blog/2011/10/3/colombias-military-expenditure-and-its-impact

25% of their entire budget in Colombia is on the military.

Quote
Between 2002 and 2010 Colombia spent $100 billion on defense. That is an average of $12.5 billion per year. For 2011 the amount is about $11 billion. These investments in the war machine made Colombia’s army among the largest in Latin America, on par with Brazil, and among the 15th largest in the world. Colombia's armed forces including the country's 160,000 police amounted to 463,149 personnel.

Seriously Brazil's military is frikkin huge, and Colombia, a much smaller nation has ramped up spending to match them. But no articles talks about Colombia or Brazil causing an arms race, even though those are the two big players in the region.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/venezuela/budget.htm

Quote
Venezuela slashed its defense budget by 34 percent in 2014, marking the largest decline in military spending in all of Latin America. But the dramatic cut in a country with a history of military coups did not generate audible grumbles because the top brass are bought into the socialist country’s system. Venezuela’s military spending is “erratic”, reflecting major hardware purchases. It fell under the $2.6 billion mark in 2010 and 2011, but bounced back to $4 billion in 2012 and 2013, before making a big drop in 2014.

Venezuela’s military spending was among the lowest in South America. Despite claims to the contrary, Venezuela’s military spending is not unusually high.

Lest I be accused of cherry picking, this was the top google hit for "venezuela defense spending" and the first one was the top google hit for "colombia military spending". The wording changed by accident, but I don't think switching the terms would give a different search result. Basically there aren't any reputable sources saying Venezuela is the one leading an arms race, it all comes from partisan editorials without any documentary evidence. Or on a percentage basis:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html
Venezuela: military = 1.1% GDP
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/colombia/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html
Colombia: military = 3.4% GDP
click "max" years to see the longterm trends. Venezuela has clearly trended downwards in mil% over the last few decades, Colombia has clearly trended upwards.

An in raw dollar terms, Colombia is around $11.5 billion per year, Venezeula is $3.6 billion.
http://militarybudget.org/venezuela/
http://militarybudget.org/colombia/

It's sort of the fact that it's Colombia that they're citing here as the "concerned neighbor" that Venezuela is becoming "too militarized" when in fact Colombia is by far and large the arms race leader, have goaded Venezuela fairly constantly over the years, and Venezuela has fairly steadily reduced its military spending over the last two decades. Also given the whole reputation of the Colombian army & their paramilitary allies in Colombia just since year 2000, it's a bit rich to cite them as a reputable uninvolved party.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-kovalik/number-of-colombian-victi_b_6213352.html

Quote
A tragic milestone went virtually unreported in the English-speaking press last week, as Colombia’s Victims Unit released its report indicating that the number of victims of Colombia’s civil war has now surpassed 7 million. This number includes those who have been killed, disappeared or displaced since 1956. For a country of under 50 million citizens, these numbers are staggering, and certainly newsworthy, but apparently not for our mainstream media.

Of course, the violence and human rights abuses in Colombia have constituted inconvenient truths for the Western media as the U.S. has been a major sponsor of the violence and abuses in that country.

Indeed, a notable fact in the Victims Unit report is that “that the majority of victimization occurred after 2000, peaking in 2002 at 744,799 victims.” It is not coincidental that “Plan Colombia,” or “Plan Washington” as many Colombians have called it, was inaugurated by President Bill Clinton in 2000, thus escalating the conflict to new heights and new levels of barbarity. Plan Colombia is the plan pursuant to which the U.S. has given Colombia over $8 billion of mostly military and police assistance.

Let's break this down, 3.5 million+ Colombians killed, disappeared or displaced since 2000. Santos took over in 2002 as defense minister. He oversaw basically half the deaths of the entire 60+ years of civil strife. And some sources cite that about 85% of killings in the war are attributable to government-side militias.

Meanwhile, the Bolivarian National Militia in Venezuela, how many people are they accused of killing? If they were accused of any deaths or human rights abuses, you can be sure they would have been mentioned in the article you linked, Teneb.

In other words, they don't seem to have even a single death they can pin on the Bolivarian National Militia, to hype the current story up, instead they're talking to the head mass-murder-enabler from Colombia who oversaw the deaths at pro-government hands of something on the order of several million, who also oversaw the biggest arms buildup in latin america, about how he's so-fucking-concerned about the citizens of Venezuela because they're going to recruit more militia there.

It's like being concerned about an increase in British Home Guard militia, and asking Heinrich Himmler for his opinion.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Teneb on April 19, 2017, 12:02:15 pm
Meanwhile, the Bolivarian National Militia in Venezuela, how many people are they accused of killing? If they were accused of any deaths or human rights abuses, you can be sure they would have been mentioned in the article you linked, Teneb.
I never said the militia killed anyone, just that they're getting armed by the government. Hell, the article doesn't say it either. It does mention 6 deaths, but says nothing about who killed them.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2017, 12:08:33 pm
Most likely the 6 deaths can't actually be attributed to government forces then, or they would have mentioned that.

I was more commenting on the article itself. Colombia's Santos has a pretty dark record there, considering what was done when he was in charge of the army, and the sheer number of illegal paras that operated as part of their "democratic security" policy.

This article is interesting, but it is the pro-venezuela side.
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/What-Everybody-Needs-to-Know-About-Venezuela-Protester-Deaths-20170413-0030.html

Here's a private media version:
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=es&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eluniversal.com%2Fnoticias%2Fsucesos%2Ffamiliares-descartan-vinculacion-entre-gases-muerte-octogenaria_648027&edit-text=&act=url

An old lady died at home while waiting for an ambulance, but they couldn't get through because of the protests in the city. The opposition then tried to claim she died from a government gas attack. She's literally one of the "6 dead" counted by the opposition. Even her family are calling bullshit on the politicization of her death.

Quote
Principal, a 13-year-old resident of the Ali Primera Socialist City, was shot and killed by opposition protesters after they toppled the main gate of the commune. The city was established by the Bolivarian Revolution in 2014 for low-income citizens.
13 year old kid murdered by opposition activists when they attacked a left-wing commune. Also counted as a protest death that Maduro is responsible for.

The other counted deaths are also questionable as to whether they are even related to the protests. One cop murdered some random, then claimed he was a protestor, but he wasn't even in the protests. The cop was then arrested and charged with murder over that. Which is definitely not the sort of thing that happens when you've ordered the cops to use suppressive force against demostrators. Western governments almost always go out of their way to absolved police of deaths they caused.

So the opposition has found a bunch of deaths with some sort of vague connection to the protests, then they remove the context and cite them as protest deaths. It's this sort of thing that's the reason I'm highly skeptical of anything the opposition in Veneuzuela actually says. Almost every detail of everything they ever say, that can be checked, turns out to be 99% bullshit.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Sheb on April 19, 2017, 02:42:18 pm
I mean, I don't dispute your general point that Colombia is way more militarized than Venezuela, but jeez. Between your link that claims that Colombia spends 25M of GDP on defense, and that stuff of adding deads, injured and displaced together to get a huge-ass number of "victims"...

I mean, you're right, but your source are so annoying parts of me want to oppose you anyway.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 19, 2017, 03:18:45 pm
I never said colombia spends 25% of GDP on arms, I said 25% of the budget.

The GDP is not the same thing as the federal budget, they are fairly distinct concepts.

And it is fairly normal to count refugees as victims when talking about e.g. Syria. The Huffington post article was about deaths and internally-displaced refugees. This was the first google link for "Syria Crisis"
https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/iraq-jordan-lebanon-syria-turkey/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-syria-crisis
Quote
Syria’s civil war has created the worst humanitarian crisis of our time. Half the country’s pre-war population — more than 11 million people — have been killed or forced to flee their homes.

They state it as "11 million people have been killed ... or forced to flee their home". That could be called misleading, since it implies "killed" is the expected state for most of the 11 million (almost all of the 11 million were not actually killed), but I don't think you're going to get much support for dissecting that claim, and calling it a misleading article about Syria.

To lump in refugees as victims is the normal way that reporting on these sorts of humanitarian crises gets written. So it's apples and apples. We can directly compare Santos' time running the Colombian army to the Syria crisis: about 1/3rd of a "Syria".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: redwallzyl on April 19, 2017, 06:36:43 pm
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/04/19/524708302/venezuela-erupts-in-mother-of-all-protests-as-anti-maduro-sentiment-seethes

that's a hell of a protest.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: TempAcc on April 19, 2017, 06:43:10 pm
The protest got the support of venezuelans in br, as well, there were organized anti-maduro protests in Porto Alegre and other places.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Sheb on April 20, 2017, 01:23:01 am


You said budget. Your link said GDP.

Quote
Each year, including pensions and other benefits to military personnel, the Colombian government spends as much as 25% of it's GDP on defense. But this already huge figure only accounts for the immediate costs of the continuation of the war system and does not tell us much about the hidden and more important longer-term effects of the war on the country’s economic and political development.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on April 20, 2017, 01:33:30 am
Oops sorry that was my misreading then. But boiling into the article they justify that:

Quote
The Colombian government spends about 1.5% of its GDP on military salaries. If you combine pensions and other benefits to the armed forces these costs would account for 15%-25% of the Colombian GDP.

I read that as budget because I was only considering direct spending. When in fact, this article is talking about total government payments to people for rendering military service. Rather than weakening my point about how militarized Colombia is, you nicely pointed out that it's a lot worse than I was claiming.

The 15% was based on detailed analysis done in the 1990s, and since then the proportion of GDP focused on the military has expanded massively (i.e it's expanded faster than GDP has), as has the sheer number of military personnel. Thus they estimate that the current proportion of GDP allocated for all payments and benefits related to military service has grown higher than the 15% of before, to somewhere close to 25% of the total GDP. Even if you only credit the original 15% GDP spent on military pensions, mil expenditure by itself has risen to around 6% GDP, so that would give you at least 21% of GDP spent on military personnel.

In GDP terms it would be equivalent to the Veteran's Affairs bureau in the USA having a budget of around $3 trillion dollars, just for paying out people's entitlements for military service.

I think counting all the costs that accrue as a result of the military does in fact sound like a reasonable way of estimating how "militarized" a nation is. As would jobs making e.g. guns and bombs. They might not be "in the military" but if your job involves nothing but producing weapons, you're part of the militarized economy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Sheb on April 20, 2017, 08:56:01 am
Apparently a GM factory was seized by the Venezuelan government. I've not heard of a US gov repsonse yet.  (http://wlns.com/2017/04/20/gm-halts-operations-in-venezuela-after-factory-is-seized/)

Quote
I read that as budget because I was only considering direct spending. When in fact, this article is talking about total government payments to people for rendering military service. Rather than weakening my point about how militarized Colombia is, you nicely pointed out that it's a lot worse than I was claiming.

The 15% was based on detailed analysis done in the 1990s, and since then the proportion of GDP focused on the military has expanded massively (i.e it's expanded faster than GDP has), as has the sheer number of military personnel. Thus they estimate that the current proportion of GDP allocated for all payments and benefits related to military service has grown higher than the 15% of before, to somewhere close to 25% of the total GDP. Even if you only credit the original 15% GDP spent on military pensions, mil expenditure by itself has risen to around 6% GDP, so that would give you at least 21% of GDP spent on military personnel.

No, your link just sucks. They mix pension liabilities for military stuff (15 billions USD in 1996) which are a one-off liability with yearly spending. It's like mixing debt and deficit.

Again, I don't really disagree with your point that Colombia is more militarized that Venezuela, it's just some of the links you used which makes me cringe.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Helgoland on April 20, 2017, 05:19:10 pm
Trump probably wanted it to move back to the states anyway, so he should be cool with it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: martinuzz on April 25, 2017, 08:00:49 am
Damn. A Brasilian gang of about 80 heavily armed men used brutal force and military tactics to rob a money transfer depot in Paraguay, in the border town of Ciudad del Este.

Part of the gang assaulted the depot with heavy machineguns and grenades, using explosives to blow out the front portal, and to blow open the vault, while other gang members assaulted a police station to create a diversion.

After 3 hours of non stop battle, the assailants fled using the depot's armoured trucks, with an unknown amount of money (rumors are they got away with money worth 36 million euros).
They covered their retreat by covering the streets with thousands of caltrops, and leaving a wake of burning cars. They also deployed snipers to cover their retreat.

Eventually they made it to lake Itapui, which they crossed to Brasil in two boats, while engaged in a firefight with pursuing coast guard. 12 Assailants were intercepted by the police before reaching the lake, but managed to get away after a heavy firefight.
The boats used in the escape were later found, filled with AK47s, grenades, flak vests, explosives and munitions.

Three of the assailants, and one police officer were killed in the attack.

Geesh. That's not a robbery, that's a full-on military assault. Insane.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: martinuzz on April 27, 2017, 07:41:23 am
Venezuala has decided to cancel their membership of OAS (Organisation of American States), of which it has been a member for over 65 years.
Minister of foreign affairs Rodriguez announced that president Maduro has demanded this, after 17 member states had called for an emergency meeting to express their concerns about the situation in Venezuala.

According to Rodriguez, the decision is irrevokable, and nescessary to protect the dignity of the Venezuelan people.

Meanwhile, more people have been getting killed in the protests, and in prison riots in Venezuala.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Sergarr on May 01, 2017, 09:07:26 pm
Maduro has decided to do... something (http://www.eluniversal.com/noticias/politica/maduro-convoco-una-asamblea-nacional-constituyente-ciudadana_650710). Apparently he's created something called "constituent assembly" and re-delegated all legislative powers to it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: feelotraveller on May 02, 2017, 12:00:59 am
That's an interesting spin on it!

As far as I can understand (google translation of the article you posted) Maduro is (re)calling the National Contituent Assembly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Constituent_Assembly_of_Venezuela (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Constituent_Assembly_of_Venezuela) the elected body that oversees constitutional reform in Venezuela.  The political ramifications of this need proper analysis but the relevant articles of the constitution (google translation from above article, so apologies if corrections are needed...) are:

Quote
Article 347: " The people of Venezuela are the depositary of the original constituent power. In exercise of this power, it may convene a National Constituent Assembly with the purpose of transforming the State, creating a new legal order and drafting a new Constitution."

Article 348: "The initiative of convening the National Constituent Assembly may be taken by the President of the Republic in the Council of Ministers, the National Assembly, by agreement of two-thirds of its members, the Municipal Councils in the chapter, through the Vote of two thirds of them, or fifteen percent of registered voters and registered voters in the Civil and Electoral Registry.

Article 349: " The President of the Republic can not object to the new Constitution." The constituted powers can not in any way impede the decisions of the National Constituent Assembly. Once the new Constitution has been promulgated, it will be published in the Official Gazette of The Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela or in the Gazette of the National Constituent Assembly ".

On the surface this seems like a proper exercise of democratic power to deal with constitutional problems (visa-a-vis the deadlock between the "corrupt" -note scarequotes- Opposition and the Supreme Court), and one which if it turns out contrary to his hopes Maduro will be in no position to refuse.  Perhaps a good way to break an increasingly violent loggerhead? 

p.s. Presuming I've got it all wrong (...possible) how is this the actions of a dictator hellbent on absolute power? [Quick edit: not that you meant this, did you Sergarr?]
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on May 02, 2017, 08:08:47 am
Hmm yeah, also the BBC is hardly friendly with Maduro, and if you read their article on the matter, the opposition there actually come off as a bunch of ranting loonies. They're all about hyperbole and hysteria dialed up to 11 no matter what the other guys say or do:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39775092
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Sheb on May 02, 2017, 08:21:07 am
Hmm yeah, also the BBC is hardly friendly with Maduro, and if you read their article on the matter, the opposition there actually come off as a bunch of ranting loonies. They're all about hyperbole and hysteria dialed up to 11 no matter what the other guys say or do:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39775092

Does it? Reading that article, it looks like they're reasonable and Maduro is out to do a power grab.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on May 02, 2017, 08:26:49 am
If they think the president has too many powers, and there aren't enough constitutional protections against that, then rather than ousting one president and just putting another in, they should fully back something like the constituent assembly which would be able to tighten the legal restrictions on what the president can do. After all, the constituent assembly is binding on the president.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Sheb on May 02, 2017, 08:39:46 am
Except it isn't clear how that constituent assembly is going to be set up, apart that it's not going to be directly elected.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: sluissa on May 02, 2017, 11:14:55 am
Remember Turkey just adjusted their constitution to make way for a dictator president. Venezuela copying them maybe?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Reelya on May 02, 2017, 11:22:38 am
Well looking at Turkey's referendum, it basically shifted from a westminster-style parliament more to a US-style presidency. That - by itself - doesn't really mean he's a dictator.

If you look at some of the changes in turkey they weren't all clearly just pushing Erdogan's power:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017#Constitutional_amendments

-  The number of seats in the Parliament is raised from 550 to 600.

- Parliamentary terms are extended from four to five years. Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held on the same day every five years, with presidential elections going to a run-off if no candidate wins a simple majority in the first round.

- The age requirement to stand as a candidate in an election to be lowered from 25 to 18, while the condition of having to complete compulsory military service is to be removed. Individuals with relations to the military would be ineligible to run for election.

- The President's ability to declare state of emergency is now subject to parliamentary approval to take effect. The Parliament can extend, remove or shorten it. States of emergency can be extended for up to four months at a time except during war, where no such limitation will be required. Every presidential decree issues during a state of emergency will need an approval of Parliament.

- The acts of the President are now subject to judicial review.

- The President used to appoint one Justice from High Military Court of Appeals, and one from the High Military Administrative Court. As military courts would be abolished, the number of Justices in the Constitutional Court would be reduced to 15 from 17. Consequently, presidential appointees would be reduced to 12 from 14, while the Parliament would continue to appoint three.

- To overcome a presidential veto, the Parliament needs to adopt the same bill with an absolute majority (301).

- Military courts are abolished unless they are erected to investigate actions of soldiers under conditions of war.

-     The President becomes both the head of state and head of government, with the power to appoint and sack ministers and Vice President. The president can issue decrees about executive. If legislation makes a law about the same topic that President issued an executive order, decree will become invalid and parliamentary law become valid.

Those are some of the relevant ones, they're all pretty tame stuff compared to e.g. American presidential powers.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: TempAcc on May 02, 2017, 12:48:07 pm
Surely a new constitution while maduro and all of his cronies are in power (including the supreme court) will result in a constitution that truly reflects the will of the people, you know, those millions protesting for days now, including those who died?

Is this the fanfiction thread? Is maduro going to declare his love for his sempai next and cause eternal world peace while brandishing a katana at super robots?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Teneb on May 02, 2017, 02:27:14 pm
Is this the fanfiction thread? Is maduro going to declare his love for his sempai next and cause eternal world peace while brandishing a katana at super robots?
Chavez-senpai is dead.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bullied Colombia Edition
Post by: Antioch on May 02, 2017, 02:48:34 pm
Well looking at Turkey's referendum, it basically shifted from a westminster-style parliament more to a US-style presidency. That - by itself - doesn't really mean he's a dictator.

If you look at some of the changes in turkey they weren't all clearly just pushing Erdogan's power:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_constitutional_referendum,_2017#Constitutional_amendments

-  The number of seats in the Parliament is raised from 550 to 600.

- Parliamentary terms are extended from four to five years. Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held on the same day every five years, with presidential elections going to a run-off if no candidate wins a simple majority in the first round.

- The age requirement to stand as a candidate in an election to be lowered from 25 to 18, while the condition of having to complete compulsory military service is to be removed. Individuals with relations to the military would be ineligible to run for election.

- The President's ability to declare state of emergency is now subject to parliamentary approval to take effect. The Parliament can extend, remove or shorten it. States of emergency can be extended for up to four months at a time except during war, where no such limitation will be required. Every presidential decree issues during a state of emergency will need an approval of Parliament.

- The acts of the President are now subject to judicial review.

- The President used to appoint one Justice from High Military Court of Appeals, and one from the High Military Administrative Court. As military courts would be abolished, the number of Justices in the Constitutional Court would be reduced to 15 from 17. Consequently, presidential appointees would be reduced to 12 from 14, while the Parliament would continue to appoint three.

- To overcome a presidential veto, the Parliament needs to adopt the same bill with an absolute majority (301).

- Military courts are abolished unless they are erected to investigate actions of soldiers under conditions of war.

-     The President becomes both the head of state and head of government, with the power to appoint and sack ministers and Vice President. The president can issue decrees about executive. If legislation makes a law about the same topic that President issued an executive order, decree will become invalid and parliamentary law become valid.

Those are some of the relevant ones, they're all pretty tame stuff compared to e.g. American presidential powers.

Now place this in the context of a country where more than 66 newspapers got closed down by the government. The government has lifted the immunity of parliament to persecute the opposition. Hundreds of people get arrested for "insulting the president". More than 66 newspapers and 83 other media outlets have been shut down. And over 100,000 judges, policemen, and academics got sacked or detained, because Erdogan has just declared the opposition a terrorist organization.

The sacking of judges in particular means there is simply no separation of power anymore in Turkey. The juridical system has become an extension of the government.

In the meantime Erdogan makes Gulen into a huge enemy figure like Trotsky was to Stalin, while failing to give the world any form of evidence that the man had anything to do with the coup. Also take in mind that these purges were happening before the coup anyway.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Magical President Maduro vs Imperialist Mechas
Post by: redwallzyl on May 05, 2017, 06:13:44 pm
lots of fighting going on apparently.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/05/05/527049726/riven-by-fire-and-fiery-rhetoric-venezuela-decides-its-future-in-the-streets

I find it really interesting how the "protesters" basically look like what an ancient unprofessional army would have looked like, minus the outfits and with a distinct lack of swords and spears, and the riot cops looking like the roman legions.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: smjjames on May 06, 2017, 02:27:48 pm
And apparently, Maduro dances while Caracas burns. (https://www.axios.com/venezuela-protests-anti-government-president-maduro-dancing-2395773854.html?utm_medium=linkshare&utm_campaign=organic) That is one guy who doesn't give a damn about his public image or opinion.

The whole Rome mirror thing is wierd.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Reelya on May 06, 2017, 03:03:26 pm
I'm worried about Venezuela no matter which way this goes. There aren't any moderates, you have the opposition who have flirted with outright fascism when they had their shot at power, and are tied in with groups like the colombian paramilitaries, and you have Maduro's bunch who are basically incompetent and have terrible PR.

What I'm guessing will happen now is that Maduro will be toppled from power and a far-right coalition will take power, then there will be a massive escalation of violence and state oppression against groups such as trade unions and worker's organizations, which the mainstream media will turn a blind eye to.

Both sides have similar shortcomings:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt#Carmona.27s_interim_presidency
Quote
Carmona then issued a decree, which came to be known as the Carmona Decree, dissolving the National Assembly and Supreme Court that were filled with Chávez supporters, and voiding the 1999 Constitution. The decree declared that new elections for a "National Legislative Power" would take place no later than December 2002, and that this would draft a general reform of the 1999 constitution; new "general national elections" would take place within a year of the decree's declaration. The decree also suspended the Attorney General, Controller General, state governors and all mayors elected during Chávez's administration. He also suspended the power of other branches of government and dismissed Chávez appointees while forming a new ouncil, most of whose 25 members were Chávez opponents. As one academic and Chavez supporter, Barry Cannon, later put it, "all institutions were abolished leaving the country effectively without the rule of law."

What the opposition actually did last time they had a shot at power heavily resembles what they accuse Maduro of doing. Capriles, the current opposition forerunner for the next president was a supporter of this at the time (he was a mayor of an area where the Cuban Embassy was located and he reportedly physically joined in on attacks on the embassy). So, in other words a change of government isn't going to fix jack shit, since they're all as bad as each other.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: smjjames on May 06, 2017, 03:33:21 pm
Any idea of what would fix Venezuelas situation? Short of an all out civil war. Though you did say that there aren't any moderates left, or at least those that want to be in politics.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Reelya on May 06, 2017, 03:56:50 pm
Civil war is actually looking likely. For example, one of the "protest-related" deaths was actually because armed opposition supporters stormed a left-wing commune with guns. So I'd be worried that many groups associated with the socialist side of things would be targeted for elimination if there was a sudden change of power. This would include communes, collectives, grass-roots media outlets, unions, and possibly attacks on those free clinics and their operators.

And before being accused of hyping things up, during 2013 right-wing protestors attacked low-cost supermarkets, clinics and journalists.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/04/20134177162851301.html
Quote
Patients react angrily as opposition is blamed for attacking Cuban doctors, journalists and supermarkets.
...
Angry mobs burned clinics in Valencia and other cities on Monday night and early Tuesday, destroying property and harassing doctors during a melee of political violence that left seven people dead and dozens injured.

Demonstrators also vandalised offices of the governing Socialist Party, the home of Tibisay Lucena, head of Venezuela's election authority and other institutions connected to the state.

The violence follows Sunday's tight presidential election when Socialist Party candidate Nicolas Maduro beat opposition challenger Henrique Capriles by a margin of about 1.5 percent, or less than 300,000 votes.

And there are stories circulating about other opposition-related violence in the current time period
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13066
Opposition supporters attacked a maternity hospital. The media source is pro-venezuela, but Unicef also issued an official statement condemning the attack:
https://www.unicef.org/venezuela/spanish/media_36025.html
The maternity hospital was probably targeted because it was named after Hugo Chavez.

I mean this is a clear sign that the media we're getting is partisan. If the left-wing side was burning down hospitals, it would be front page news.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Sergarr on May 06, 2017, 04:09:50 pm
In other news, Maduro has made a political speech. To cows. (https://twitter.com/i/web/status/860520928740093952) This should tell you all you need to choose the right, sane side in Venezuela.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Reelya on May 06, 2017, 04:11:34 pm
Seriously you're like a walking example of Poe's law. Next you'll be telling us Hitler was all well and good because he put paid to the German Communist Party.

BTW the 2015 Amnesty bill is basically a laundry-list of every illegal action taken by the opposition from 1999-2015. It provides a get of out jail free card for any violent political action taken by their side during the period:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-francisco-dominguez/venezuelas-right-wing-con_b_9401644.html

Hey they even included "using minors to commit crimes" as being under Amnesty, if the goal was to overthrow the elected government. So they have at least some incidents of child soldiers used on their side that they felt the need to cover in a blanket get-out-of-jail-free card.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: smjjames on May 06, 2017, 04:17:31 pm
Seriously you're like a walking example of Poe's law. Next you'll be telling us Hitler was all well and good because he put paid to the German Communist Party.

Who? Sergarr or Maduro? Would be good to have an accurate translated transcript of what Maduro said plus context on both sides.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Reelya on May 06, 2017, 04:21:15 pm
Sergarr's position is that basically being on the right-wing no matter how extreme is perfectly fine as long as the other guy is associated with the left, which is either completely sarcastic or he has a screw loose.

The Venezeulan opposition are on about the level of Pinochet in Chile by a rough estimation. They have armed thugs who go around burning down public infrastructure if it's associated with the left.

I'm just wondering how far that goes with Sergarr? Is a NAZI-like regime which has gas chambers for union members perfectly cool, if you just happen to be overthrowing a government which promotes free health clinics and public education?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: smjjames on May 06, 2017, 04:23:09 pm
That's not what he said in his post. He was just pointing out whatever strange thing Maduro was doing there.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Sergarr on May 06, 2017, 04:23:41 pm
Seriously you're like a walking example of Poe's law. Next you'll be telling us Hitler was all well and good because he put paid to the German Communist Party.
Maduro is an uneducated bus driver who only got to power by being a personal driver for Chavez. He doesn't know how to rule the country, and as a result he ruined Venezuela, turned it into a complete mess by indiscriminate nationalization and heavy-handed governmental interventions. Don't try to shift the blame here - it's Maduro's fault that his country is now starting to rebel against his tyrannical rule. Hopefully he will be deposed swiftly and without too many casualties.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Helgoland on May 06, 2017, 04:25:44 pm
Quick question: Why do you capitalize 'Nazi' like that? It's not like it's an acronym. Hell, it's not even a proper shortening - that would've been 'Naso'. Since that doesn't sound cool, but rather like a nose-themed superhero, they just took the first syllables and spelled them wrong.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: smjjames on May 06, 2017, 04:30:44 pm
Seriously you're like a walking example of Poe's law. Next you'll be telling us Hitler was all well and good because he put paid to the German Communist Party.
Maduro is an uneducated bus driver who only got to power by being a personal driver for Chavez. He doesn't know how to rule the country, and as a result he ruined Venezuela, turned it into a complete mess by indiscriminate nationalization and heavy-handed governmental interventions. Don't try to shift the blame here - it's Maduro's fault that his country is now starting to rebel against his tyrannical rule. Hopefully he will be deposed swiftly and without too many casualties.

The way it's going already, it's going to be bloody.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Akura on May 06, 2017, 04:43:37 pm
Quick question: Why do you capitalize 'Nazi' like that? It's not like it's an acronym. Hell, it's not even a proper shortening - that would've been 'Naso'. Since that doesn't sound cool, but rather like a nose-themed superhero, they just took the first syllables and spelled them wrong.

A quick lookup suggests that "Nazi" is shortened from the German name of the National Socialist German Workers' party, "Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei". Not quite sure why the shortened it like that, though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Teneb on May 06, 2017, 04:48:58 pm
Seriously you're like a walking example of Poe's law. Next you'll be telling us Hitler was all well and good because he put paid to the German Communist Party.
Maduro is an uneducated bus driver who only got to power by being a personal driver for Chavez. He doesn't know how to rule the country, and as a result he ruined Venezuela, turned it into a complete mess by indiscriminate nationalization and heavy-handed governmental interventions. Don't try to shift the blame here - it's Maduro's fault that his country is now starting to rebel against his tyrannical rule. Hopefully he will be deposed swiftly and without too many casualties.
Maduro is a huge power-hungry moron. But here's the problem: the people opposing him are also power-hungry, and while not morons they don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves (not that Maduro does either).

I know you are firmly in the camp of neo-liberal capitalism and don't really mind that, but this is not a conflict between capitalism and communism. This is a conflict between a sycophant-turned-leader and oligarchs.

External intervention is also not going to work either. If the US intervenes, everyone in the continent will, with reason, be extremely pissed off. Last time the US decided to mess around in South America... well, just do some research on Plan Condor. Fortunately, Trump leans towards isolationism. If anyone else in SA intervenes, they'll either prop up one side as their puppet, try to put in a third puppet of their own, or maybe even an insane attempt at outright conquest/submission if it is Colombia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: WealthyRadish on May 06, 2017, 04:51:27 pm
Quick question: Why do you capitalize 'Nazi' like that? It's not like it's an acronym. Hell, it's not even a proper shortening - that would've been 'Naso'. Since that doesn't sound cool, but rather like a nose-themed superhero, they just took the first syllables and spelled them wrong.

A quick lookup suggests that "Nazi" is shortened from the German name of the National Socialist German Workers' party, "Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei". Not quite sure why the shortened it like that, though.

My guess would be that the term started exclusively as spoken slang, with the eventual written spelling imitating the slang phonetically rather than using the spelling of the original phrase.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: Teneb on May 06, 2017, 04:57:24 pm
Quick question: Why do you capitalize 'Nazi' like that? It's not like it's an acronym. Hell, it's not even a proper shortening - that would've been 'Naso'. Since that doesn't sound cool, but rather like a nose-themed superhero, they just took the first syllables and spelled them wrong.

A quick lookup suggests that "Nazi" is shortened from the German name of the National Socialist German Workers' party, "Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei". Not quite sure why the shortened it like that, though.

My guess would be that the term started exclusively as spoken slang, with the eventual written spelling imitating the slang phonetically rather than using the spelling of the original phrase.
Nazi sounds better and catchier than NDA. Memes aren't just fun and games.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: smjjames on May 06, 2017, 05:05:00 pm
Seriously you're like a walking example of Poe's law. Next you'll be telling us Hitler was all well and good because he put paid to the German Communist Party.
Maduro is an uneducated bus driver who only got to power by being a personal driver for Chavez. He doesn't know how to rule the country, and as a result he ruined Venezuela, turned it into a complete mess by indiscriminate nationalization and heavy-handed governmental interventions. Don't try to shift the blame here - it's Maduro's fault that his country is now starting to rebel against his tyrannical rule. Hopefully he will be deposed swiftly and without too many casualties.
Maduro is a huge power-hungry moron. But here's the problem: the people opposing him are also power-hungry, and while not morons they don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves (not that Maduro does either).

I know you are firmly in the camp of neo-liberal capitalism and don't really mind that, but this is not a conflict between capitalism and communism. This is a conflict between a sycophant-turned-leader and oligarchs.

External intervention is also not going to work either. If the US intervenes, everyone in the continent will, with reason, be extremely pissed off. Last time the US decided to mess around in South America... well, just do some research on Plan Condor. Fortunately, Trump leans towards isolationism. If anyone else in SA intervenes, they'll either prop up one side as their puppet, try to put in a third puppet of their own, or maybe even an insane attempt at outright conquest/submission if it is Colombia.

It'd be hard to predict what exactly Trump would do since he seems to do things on a whim and it's still early in his admin. The only Latin American policy that I know of is just the wall and stuff with Mexico.

However, the current Homeland Security secretary (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kelly) used to be the commander of the US Southern Command (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Southern_Command), which covers the Carribean, Central America, and South America. So, what's going on in Venezuela could become a topic of interest for him, and via him, Trump.

The US is definetly keeping an eye on what's going on though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: Reelya on May 06, 2017, 06:25:24 pm
Maduro is a huge power-hungry moron. But here's the problem: the people opposing him are also power-hungry, and while not morons they don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves (not that Maduro does either).

I know you are firmly in the camp of neo-liberal capitalism and don't really mind that, but this is not a conflict between capitalism and communism. This is a conflict between a sycophant-turned-leader and oligarchs.

External intervention is also not going to work either. If the US intervenes, everyone in the continent will, with reason, be extremely pissed off. Last time the US decided to mess around in South America... well, just do some research on Plan Condor. Fortunately, Trump leans towards isolationism. If anyone else in SA intervenes, they'll either prop up one side as their puppet, try to put in a third puppet of their own, or maybe even an insane attempt at outright conquest/submission if it is Colombia.
Yeah, though remember Maduro isn't just one dude, the PSUV party's membership is around 7.5 million people  (now over 8 million according to a 2016 FOX news article), or about a third of the entire population of Venezuela are voting members of Maduro's party. The scale of these organizations is sort of lost in the personality politics as portrayed in the media.

Completely squashing that would in fact be a civil war, and I think it's likely that a new government will attempt to completely crush the PSUV and everything connected to them. Which since they are 1/3rd of the entire population, is a lot of things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Socialist_Party_of_Venezuela

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: Sergarr on May 10, 2017, 06:29:49 am
Maduro is a huge power-hungry moron. But here's the problem: the people opposing him are also power-hungry, and while not morons they don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves (not that Maduro does either).

I know you are firmly in the camp of neo-liberal capitalism and don't really mind that, but this is not a conflict between capitalism and communism. This is a conflict between a sycophant-turned-leader and oligarchs.

External intervention is also not going to work either. If the US intervenes, everyone in the continent will, with reason, be extremely pissed off. Last time the US decided to mess around in South America... well, just do some research on Plan Condor. Fortunately, Trump leans towards isolationism. If anyone else in SA intervenes, they'll either prop up one side as their puppet, try to put in a third puppet of their own, or maybe even an insane attempt at outright conquest/submission if it is Colombia.
Yeah, though remember Maduro isn't just one dude, the PSUV party's membership is around 7.5 million people  (now over 8 million according to a 2016 FOX news article), or about a third of the entire population of Venezuela are voting members of Maduro's party. The scale of these organizations is sort of lost in the personality politics as portrayed in the media.

Completely squashing that would in fact be a civil war, and I think it's likely that a new government will attempt to completely crush the PSUV and everything connected to them. Which since they are 1/3rd of the entire population, is a lot of things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Socialist_Party_of_Venezuela


Late response, but if the situation is the same as in USSR, the overwhelming majority of these so-called "party members" are in there only for the money and power, and will scurry out the moment it stops providing them with so. There was no civil war during the USSR/Warsaw pack breakup, because the communists' vaunted numbers are full of shit and there actually aren't very many people who would support them, they're just experts at maintaining an illusion of that.

Also, hearing rumors that the only people who will be allowed to vote for the Constituent Assembly are either the ones with Social Security (which apparently means the retired people), or military. So, I guess that's an explanation for how Maduro wants to achieve a perfectly loyal parliament in order to continue being in power.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: martinuzz on May 25, 2017, 03:35:17 am
Meanwhile in Brasil, the president set his army loose on the civilian population. The Brasilian capital Brasilia has been conquered by government forces.
For hours, the nation's capital was covered in thick black smoke. Protestors had set fire to the ministry of Agriculture, and damaged at least seven other ministries.
Military police countered it violently, causing mass panic by charging the protestors on horseback, and firing at protestors who were sitting on the ground with their hands in the air with live ammunition.

By now, 1500 military troops have arrived to restore order, and for now they are to stay until the end of the month.
Temer's militarization of the capital meets with fierce opposition. Some opposition leaders are going to the high court to try and forbid the martial law. Congress session ended in a mass fistfight.
Calls for empeachment of Temer are becoming more widespread

http://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/hoofdstad-brazilie-in-handen-van-leger-na-zeer-gewelddadige-confrontaties-met-demonstranten~a4496951/

inb4 Brasil devolves into fullscale civil war

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/24/world/americas/brazil-michel-temer-brasilia-protests.html
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: smjjames on May 25, 2017, 03:42:16 am
Brazillll. Wtf.........

Bad South American antics makes your North American cousins (including the US) sad....
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: Teneb on May 25, 2017, 11:37:33 am
Brazillll. Wtf.........

Bad South American antics makes your North American cousins (including the US) sad....
You mean the same US who enabled and supported various brutal regimes?

But fuck Temer.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Insert tasteless joke here
Post by: Glowcat on May 25, 2017, 09:19:41 pm
Brazillll. Wtf.........

Bad South American antics makes your North American cousins (including the US) sad....

The last century has been the American hegemony aiding these right-wing regimes and toppling democratically elected leftist ones so like... they're not that sad.

Speaking of Sad!, give the US administration some more time and you might see American Civil War Part 2 in the next few decades. Further criminalization of protesters and a militarized police force aren't there to decorate a peaceful and fair society.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vampire Acting President Refuses To Vacate
Post by: martinuzz on June 28, 2017, 02:55:39 am
A helicopter attacked the High Court building in Venezuela. It is said to have fired 15 shots and thrown 4 grenades. No one was injured.
On social media, a message was spread in which Venezuelan police pilot Oscar Pérez calls upon the people of Venezuela to 'revolt against the tyranny of Maduro. It is your duty to free your country from this corrupt government'.

Maduro has responded by threatening his population with war. "If Venezuela is thrown into chaos, we will got to war. We will never give up, and what cannot be achieved with votes, shall be acheived with weapons. We will liberate our fatherland with weapons".
He accuses the CIA of being involved in the helicopter attack, and calls Pérez a CIA agent, while showing a photograph of Pérez in front of the US House of Representatives, and another photo of Pérez in front of a US coastguard helicopter on state television.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vampire Acting President Refuses To Vacate
Post by: Reelya on June 28, 2017, 04:10:31 am
For balance, this is the publicly posted picture (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/maduro-supreme-court-attacked-helicopter-170628004637862.html) of the guys who say they want to take over, violently. Same guys who just tried to do a terror attack at a public event at the ministry building:

(http://www.aljazeera.com/mritems/Images/2017/6/28/6c71fd975f504146bcc5d4e4cb211850_18.jpg)


Maduro responded by saying that if there is a violent takever then the left will resist. e.g. if there's a military extra-legal coup then they will fight. It's kind of a rock and a hard place. How should an elected official respond to threats of a military coup? "Oh ok no harm done?" Maduro was in fact elected and hasn't finished his term, which ends next year. He'll probably lose that election, he might not even stand for re-election. The opposition want to have a military takeover before the scheduled election, for "reasons" because then they can rewrite the rules and carry out a purge.

Also remember that the right when they were in power carried out mass killing against protestors (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caracazo) (estimates range from hundreds to thousands killed) without batting an eyelid. Well ... you can say that was a while ago, but they did the same shit in 2002 when they were in power for a couple of days, there's footage of the right-wing cops firing shotguns into crowds of protestors etc, and many of the leaders from then are part of the same thing now. Contrast that to deaths in the current protests where they're stretching to count deaths caused by protestors or the protests as "Maduro's fault", and the story is completely different.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-27/venezuela-death-toll-jumps-as-protesters-battle-security-forces/8475488
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-39645809

The best they can come up with is that the government used tear gas and water cannons against rioters. One protestor got killed by being hit in the head by a cannister, which is probably in the realms of accidental death. Also, a lot of security forces are coming under sniper fire and the like, those are being counted in these news reports in the protest-death headlines.

If you read the descriptions of the times there was deliberate targeting of rightwingers in the examples in that BBC article, one parallel comes to mind: Antifa. That's basically one of the problems here. Same as the USA, Venezuela has violent grassroots people on both sides of the political fence. Once shooting starts between those grassroots elements, normal control is basically off the table. But almost none of the deaths are attributable to security forces using deadly force against protestors. It makes about as much sense to blame Maduro directly for shootings that occur between grassroots activists on both sides, as to blame Hillary Clinton and Obama for whatever Antifa does.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Dorsidwarf on June 28, 2017, 08:55:01 am
Quick question: Why do you capitalize 'Nazi' like that? It's not like it's an acronym. Hell, it's not even a proper shortening - that would've been 'Naso'. Since that doesn't sound cool, but rather like a nose-themed superhero, they just took the first syllables and spelled them wrong.

A quick lookup suggests that "Nazi" is shortened from the German name of the National Socialist German Workers' party, "Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei". Not quite sure why the shortened it like that, though.

I seem to recall being taught that it's because the socialist party was nicknamed the Sozis, so the National Socialists were referred to as "Nazis" when they showed up.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: Teneb on June 28, 2017, 09:09:36 am
Remember kids: everyone is wrong in this shitstorm. I'm currently wondering how the rest of UNASUL will respond, if at all, to a Venezuelan civil war. Probably some strong words and little else at first.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: Reelya on June 28, 2017, 09:32:37 am
Let's have a little good news. Today FARC officially disarmed in the Colombian peace deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/27/colombia-farc-weapons-war-government

...

Sadly, this deal doesn't do much about the right-wing paramilitaries, who ex-president Uribe's family and political allies are heavily linked to. The same Uribe who was dead against the peace deal with FARC. Reason? Civil war gives the perfect cover to get away with this shit:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dan-kovalik/amnesty-international-par_b_9637088.html

Quote
In the month of March, 2016 alone, 30 individuals have been assassinated by paramilitary groups. Of these, “14 were community and political activists and 16 assassinated in the context of ‘social cleansing’ operations by paramilitary groups.” In addition, on April 1, 2016, prominent human rights leader and former senator, Piedad Cordoba, barely survived an assassination attempt by paramilitaries in the Afro-Colombian town of Quibdo. Again, these are not the random acts of “criminal gangs” as Colombian and U.S. authorities would have us believe.

Colombian government report tallied massacres by all sides here. 1804 massacre events, of which 343 (19%) were attributed to the anti-government side in the war. However it's not clear who's massacring civilians here (who make up 80% of deaths), since the only mention in the article of specific incident for a FARC massacre was a battle against government troops.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/25/colombia-conflict-death-toll-commission
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: martinuzz on June 29, 2017, 01:02:43 am
In Brasil, a child ran a car into the presidential palace. After crashing through the entrance gate, guards fired warning shots. When the car did not slow down, they shot to kill. And missed. After crashing the car into the palace, the boy was arrested unharmed.
President Temer was not in the palace at the time.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Legionnaires Clash with Barbarian Hordes
Post by: Helgoland on June 29, 2017, 10:33:48 am
Quick question: Why do you capitalize 'Nazi' like that? It's not like it's an acronym. Hell, it's not even a proper shortening - that would've been 'Naso'. Since that doesn't sound cool, but rather like a nose-themed superhero, they just took the first syllables and spelled them wrong.

A quick lookup suggests that "Nazi" is shortened from the German name of the National Socialist German Workers' party, "Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei". Not quite sure why the shortened it like that, though.

I seem to recall being taught that it's because the Social Democrat party was nicknamed the Sozis, so the National Socialists were referred to as "Nazis" when they showed up.
FTFY. We're not filthy collectivizing assholes, we're well-groomed reformist assholes!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: redwallzyl on July 05, 2017, 04:36:06 pm
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/05/535653007/violence-breaks-out-at-venezuelas-national-assembly

Well that's a thing. Certainly guaranteed to make the Venezuelan version of c-span more interesting.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: smjjames on July 05, 2017, 05:21:13 pm
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/05/535653007/violence-breaks-out-at-venezuelas-national-assembly

Well that's a thing. Certainly guaranteed to make the Venezuelan version of c-span more interesting.

I'm a bit confused, pro-government protestirs attacking the Venezuelan Parliament (well, the legislative wing) seems rather anti-government. Apparently, just before the attack, the VP made an unannounced visit and urged supporters to show their support... and that appears to be exactly what happened here. Just goes to show how high the tensions are there.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: Teneb on July 05, 2017, 05:28:53 pm
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/05/535653007/violence-breaks-out-at-venezuelas-national-assembly

Well that's a thing. Certainly guaranteed to make the Venezuelan version of c-span more interesting.

I'm a bit confused, pro-government protestirs attacking the Venezuelan Parliament (well, the legislative wing) seems rather anti-government. Apparently, just before the attack, the VP made an unannounced visit and urged supporters to show their support... and that appears to be exactly what happened here. Just goes to show how high the tensions are there.
Pro-government here means pro-president. Maduro and the congress are at odds.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nostalgia for Plan Condor?
Post by: smjjames on July 13, 2017, 09:56:10 pm
Venezuelas economy is really in a death spiral cycle, though 'death spiral' might be putting it lightly. (http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/13/news/economy/venezuela-oil-production/index.html?iid=hp-stack-dom)

That fugitive Venezuelan helicopter pilot has reappeared at a vigil. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40603762) I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up leading some sort of coup, or maybe he's just someone people are rallying around atm. Also, something's supposed to happen on July 18th, calls it 'Zero-hour'.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: Teneb on July 20, 2017, 02:37:56 pm
Everything is in spanish because reasons. Consider yourselves warned.

Apparenty, the European Union wants to sanction Venezuela (https://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/07/17/actualidad/1500294066_367692.html). Except Portugal (https://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/07/18/actualidad/1500406935_019447.html).

Even Trump is getting in on the action. (https://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/07/17/estados_unidos/1500327447_979161.html)

Meanwhile, congresspeople from Chile and Colombia are trying to denounce Maduro for international crimes (https://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2017/07/18/colombia/1500344108_601017.html).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: TempAcc on July 20, 2017, 03:09:04 pm
Lol Portugal
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 20, 2017, 03:10:06 pm
Dastis is the Spanish foreign minister, and in that news item he's against sanctions as well.

Particularily notable because his goverment is at odds with Maduro's
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: smjjames on July 20, 2017, 06:11:46 pm
The WH position on Venezuela isn't anything new. Also, the article doesn't mention Portugal anywhere. As Chairmanpoo said, Dastis is the Spanish Foriegn Minister, the article even mentions that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: misko27 on July 20, 2017, 07:37:52 pm
There are two articles. Click the word "Portugal".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: smjjames on July 20, 2017, 07:49:29 pm
I completely missed that, whoops.

Did Portugal give any specific reason? The article doesn't give one, other than stating 'Portugal clearly opposes it'.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: Culise on July 20, 2017, 10:57:45 pm
I completely missed that, whoops.

Did Portugal give any specific reason? The article doesn't give one, other than stating 'Portugal clearly opposes it'.
Dunno  However, Portugal says El Pais is "not truthful," EU member states have yet to address the matter collectively, they don't oppose sanctions, and they'll follow the EU lead (https://econews.pt/2017/07/19/portugal-states-they-do-not-oppose-sanctions-to-venezuela/).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on July 21, 2017, 03:59:21 am
El Pais used to be a pretty decent newspaper, but in the last 6-7 years (particularily the last two) it has become progressively worse.  Nowadays it's pretty bullshitty. It's not unlikely that it's a spin on some minor news item
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: Teneb on July 21, 2017, 07:27:32 am
It's hard to find anything on Venezuela, sadly. Which is why I went with them.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: smjjames on July 29, 2017, 01:22:23 pm
The President of Colombia, Venezuela's neighbor, has upped the ante by saying that he and his government won't recognize tomorrow's vote as it 'lacks legitimacy'. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40759887) I assume that this applies to a yes vote as not recognizing a no vote seems a bit silly.

It'll definetly be something closely watched to see what happens.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Et tu, Portugal?
Post by: Teneb on July 29, 2017, 04:06:04 pm
The President of Columbia, Venezuela's neighbor, has upped the ante by saying that he and his government won't recognize tomorrow's vote as it 'lacks legitimacy'. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40759887) I assume that this applies to a yes vote as not recognizing a no vote seems a bit silly.

It'll definetly be something closely watched to see what happens.
It's Colombia, you savage. This was pretty much expected since both countries hate each other for a ton of reasons.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: smjjames on July 29, 2017, 04:14:53 pm
The President of Columbia, Venezuela's neighbor, has upped the ante by saying that he and his government won't recognize tomorrow's vote as it 'lacks legitimacy'. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40759887) I assume that this applies to a yes vote as not recognizing a no vote seems a bit silly.

It'll definetly be something closely watched to see what happens.
It's Colombia, you savage.

Sorry, fixed now. And I guess the new thread title is poking fun at that? heh.

This was pretty much expected since both countries hate each other for a ton of reasons.

More of a 'jumping on the 'the maduro referendum is bad' bandwagon' in their case then.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: Antioch on August 01, 2017, 02:58:29 am
The situation is only escalating further.

2 Opposition leaders with house arrest made calls for protests against the government and were subsequently arrested.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: martinuzz on August 01, 2017, 04:03:36 am
Yeah, and a pro-government candidate was murdered in his own house 2 days ago. Things not going in the right direction there.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: ChristianWeiseth on August 01, 2017, 06:49:48 am
I have family in Colombia, they are embracing themselves for a Venezuelan Refugee wave. Also Maduro is supporting terrorist attacks in the north in an attempt to try and force a military intervention from Colombia into Venezuela as a distraction from the economic collapse.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: smjjames on August 06, 2017, 08:05:55 pm
I have family in Colombia, they are embracing themselves for a Venezuelan Refugee wave. Also Maduro is supporting terrorist attacks in the north in an attempt to try and force a military intervention from Colombia into Venezuela as a distraction from the economic collapse.

Does he think that Colombia would use the US's playbook? Probably more likely that the US would intervene militarily than Colombia.

In further Venezuela news, some army officers did a bit of a rebellion and attacked a base in the northwestern part of Venezuela (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40846311)

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/06/americas/venezuela-unrest/index.html

https://apnews.com/09c4b2d04da7419699ec268b3bdceea9/Venezuelans-watch-the-military-for-signs-of-fraying-loyalty

It hasn't escalated from there yet, but tensions sound like they're rising.

Also, there are some videos floating around on social media of some army guys saying that they are launching a resistance movement and said: "The move, Caguaripano said in the video, was not a "coup."
"It is a civic and military action meant to reestablish the constitutional order and, more importantly, to save the country from its total destruction and to keep our young people and families from being murdered," he said." When you say it that way, it sounds like an euphenism for a coup.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: TheDarkStar on August 06, 2017, 08:08:32 pm
It reminds me a bit of ~2011 when there were a ton of uprising in the middle east. Depending on how things go, we could see results like Egypt (iirc not much of a change in the end) or Syria (massive civil war) or Libya (the country fell apart).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: Teneb on August 06, 2017, 08:17:44 pm
"It is a civic and military action meant to reestablish the constitutional order and, more importantly, to save the country from its total destruction and to keep our young people and families from being murdered," he said."
Pretty much every justification for a military coup ever. He even used the "Think of the children!" card. Also, murdered? Maduro may be scum, but his forces haven't been going around doing mass murder.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: TheDarkStar on August 06, 2017, 08:20:03 pm
Maybe he's saying that the existing police force is too weak to adequately discourage violence and murder? IDK.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: smjjames on August 06, 2017, 08:43:21 pm
"It is a civic and military action meant to reestablish the constitutional order and, more importantly, to save the country from its total destruction and to keep our young people and families from being murdered," he said."
Pretty much every justification for a military coup ever. He even used the "Think of the children!" card. Also, murdered? Maduro may be scum, but his forces haven't been going around doing mass murder.

Sounded exactly like an euphenism or a long form spelling of 'coup'.

It reminds me a bit of ~2011 when there were a ton of uprising in the middle east. Depending on how things go, we could see results like Egypt (iirc not much of a change in the end) or Syria (massive civil war) or Libya (the country fell apart).

Or Tunisia, where things actually turned out for the better, for the most part. Though it's definetly a volatile situation.

edit: Venezuela has now created a Ministry of Truth (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40874099), well, okay, they call it a "truth commission".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: smjjames on August 11, 2017, 05:36:29 pm
Trump, unsurprisingly, says he won't rule out military intervention in Venezuela. (http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/11/politics/trump-xi-north-korea/index.html). Trump being Trump, I assume he has no idea what he is talking about.

Given that we've historically treated South America as our personal stomping grounds, I have a feeling that it won't go over well. And I'm sure Maduro will be quite pissed when he talks with Trump at the annual UN summit next month. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40895781) Maybe if it is as part of some sort of coalition, it'd be okayish.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: Baffler on August 11, 2017, 06:30:23 pm
Well there's no reason to explicitly rule it out, but that's hardly a guarantee that it'll happen either. And that does make the (pretty generous from what I've seen) assumption that Maduro will still be president this time next month.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: Teneb on August 11, 2017, 06:44:41 pm
It happened a few days ago, but I simply couldn't find it english (someone please post it if you do find it), but Venezuela has been kicked from Mercosul (https://globoplay.globo.com/v/6058232/). Don't know about Unasul, but I am guessing it too.

Peru has even kicked out their ambassador (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40906290).

To no one's surprise, Maduro's constitutional assembly (rough translation, I have no idea what it should be called in english) has ratified him as president. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/assembleia-constituinte-da-venezuela-ratifica-maduro-como-presidente.ghtml) Also not in english because can't find.

As for an intervention, that would be a clusterfuck of incredible proportions. And it would make every single country in South America except Colombia incredibly pissed off because that is Too Close.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: redwallzyl on August 11, 2017, 06:46:23 pm
As if the situation wasn't fucked enough.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on August 11, 2017, 07:06:12 pm
It happened a few days ago, but I simply couldn't find it english (someone please post it if you do find it), but Venezuela has been kicked from Mercosul (https://globoplay.globo.com/v/6058232/). Don't know about Unasul, but I am guessing it too.

Peru has even kicked out their ambassador (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40906290).

To no one's surprise, Maduro's constitutional assembly (rough translation, I have no idea what it should be called in english) has ratified him as president. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/assembleia-constituinte-da-venezuela-ratifica-maduro-como-presidente.ghtml) Also not in english because can't find.

Well, "constitutional assembly" would be the literal translation. They haven't started calling it their parliament or national assembly or anything else yet AFAIK.

Quote
As for an intervention, that would be a clusterfuck of incredible proportions. And it would make every single country in South America except Colombia incredibly pissed off because that is Too Close.

Would some kind of joint thingy be doable? And yeah, I knew it would piss off the South American countries due to the fact that we've historically treated South America as our personal stomping grounds.

For now, I'm passing it off as Trump having no clue as to what he's talking about. Our military is already pretty stretched as it is.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Egan_BW on August 11, 2017, 07:43:24 pm
As if the situation wasn't fucked enough.
Just because things are already fucked does not mean that they cannot become more fucked. The maximum potential for fuckedness is practically infinite.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Columbian Cartels
Post by: feelotraveller on August 12, 2017, 05:12:58 am
To no one's surprise, Maduro's constitutional assembly (rough translation, I have no idea what it should be called in english) has ratified him as president. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/assembleia-constituinte-da-venezuela-ratifica-maduro-como-presidente.ghtml) Also not in english because can't find.

Pretty sure 'constituent' is the correct english translation in this context (=National Constituent Assembly).

As if the situation wasn't fucked enough.
Just because things are already fucked does not mean that they cannot become more fucked. The maximum potential for fuckedness is practically infinite.

Yeah, although Maduro is looking worse by the day the real question is who, if anyone, is a better replacement.  Certainly the major opposition figures don't cut it; nor would an american puppet.  Thoughts?  Luisa Ortega is the only one who springs to mind in my vast distance.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on August 12, 2017, 09:53:24 am
To no one's surprise, Maduro's constitutional assembly (rough translation, I have no idea what it should be called in english) has ratified him as president. (http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/assembleia-constituinte-da-venezuela-ratifica-maduro-como-presidente.ghtml) Also not in english because can't find.

Pretty sure 'constituent' is the correct english translation in this context (=National Constituent Assembly).

Actually, you're probably right. I saw 'consistuent assembly' be used elsewhere.

As if the situation wasn't fucked enough.
Just because things are already fucked does not mean that they cannot become more fucked. The maximum potential for fuckedness is practically infinite.

Yeah, although Maduro is looking worse by the day the real question is who, if anyone, is a better replacement.  Certainly the major opposition figures don't cut it; nor would an american puppet.  Thoughts?  Luisa Ortega is the only one who springs to mind in my vast distance.

If history is to be any guide, it'll be some sort of charismatic rebel leader. In all seriousness though, any rebellion over there is going to be in it's embryonic stages. It takes time to organize and while there have been a few apparent leaders, any smart leader is likely to lay low until the time is right.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: scriver on August 12, 2017, 10:16:35 am
What makes you think the opposition wouldn't subvert any popular rebellion into itself, or be the ones to stoke the fire in the first place? As I understand it coups isn't exactly beyond their scruples in the first place.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on August 12, 2017, 10:37:18 am
Me? I haven't heard anything about coups being beyond their scruples, though I'm assuming the 'forced down at gunpoint' type coup. It's certainly possible that they could subvert any popular rebellion into themselves.

As for striking the fire, that was already struck months ago when protests started.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Sheb on August 12, 2017, 01:21:12 pm
So, remember how people opposed Clinton because she was the warmonger?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Teneb on August 12, 2017, 01:53:33 pm
So, remember how people opposed Clinton because she was the warmonger?
Trump being a warmonger doesn't make Clinton not one, you know.

For the record: I dislike them both equally, but Trump is more likely to run the USA into the ground and provide me with sweet catharsis. So there's that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on August 12, 2017, 02:01:37 pm
So, remember how people opposed Clinton because she was the warmonger?
Trump being a warmonger doesn't make Clinton not one, you know.

For the record: I dislike them both equally, but Trump is more likely to run the USA into the ground and provide me with sweet catharsis. So there's that.

You probably wouldn't be too happy if he takes the global economy with it :P Though given that we're the global superpower and thus, a pretty easy target for any sort of anger, I guess it'd be the 'knocking the king off the mountain' sort of catharsis. Unless you've got some specific beef with the US. Wouldn't be angry at you if you do since we've done plenty of shitty stuff in the past that would rightfully deserve being angry at.

Also, people complained that Obama was too much of a dove, and Clinton is a warmonger compared to Obama, though she's more like mainstream Dems as far as warmongery.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Sheb on August 12, 2017, 02:42:13 pm
So, remember how people opposed Clinton because she was the warmonger?
Trump being a warmonger doesn't make Clinton not one, you know.

For the record: I dislike them both equally, but Trump is more likely to run the USA into the ground and provide me with sweet catharsis. So there's that.

Well, yeah, but if you use that as an argument not to vote for her vs. Trump, you're implying the other one is less of a warmonger.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on August 12, 2017, 03:22:16 pm
Heh. The rhetoric from Maduro's son. (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/12/maduro-son-threatens-white-house-guns-intervention-241573) Almost sounds like he's trying to get a reaction from Trump. Plus, he appears to have mistaken Trump Tower NYC for the White House.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on August 13, 2017, 04:45:17 pm
A Venezuelan politician may have launched an assassination plot on Marco Rubio. (http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/13/rubio-venezuela-plot-241591)

Uhhh... Is Venezuela trying to get into a war with the US? I mean, wouldn't assassinating an US politician be pretty damn close to a declaration of war? Even if it doesn't lead to war, it'd definetly lead to something pretty harsh.

It might not even amount to anything, but I mean like, that's pretty brazen for a countries politician to want to assassinate a politician of the worlds most powerful country who can easily curbstomp Venezuela into pulp if we so wished it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: smjjames on September 01, 2017, 12:02:03 pm
The former Colombian rebel group has adopted a new name and symbol as they transition to a political party, kept the acronym though. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41119001)

Spoiler: Their new flag (click to show/hide)

Opinions? They could probably have changed the acronym since the acronym still has the baggage of it's past.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: martinuzz on September 01, 2017, 12:03:44 pm
A rose? They gonna be the new labour party?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: sluissa on September 01, 2017, 12:15:25 pm
The former Colombian rebel group has adopted a new name and symbol as they transition to a political party, kept the acronym though. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41119001)

Spoiler: Their new flag (click to show/hide)

Opinions? They could probably have changed the acronym since the acronym still has the baggage of it's past.

"A rose by any other name would smell as sweet"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on September 01, 2017, 01:04:51 pm
Ah yes, I think I've found all the polo cal threads now, all the threads that matter at any rate.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: scriver on September 01, 2017, 01:30:24 pm
Labour party? The rose is the flower of socialism in itself.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Sheb on September 01, 2017, 03:23:53 pm
Ah yes, I think I've found all the polo cal threads now, all the threads that matter at any rate.

Even the Elusive East Asian Thread?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Bolivarian Trumpets
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on September 01, 2017, 04:30:59 pm
Ah yes, I think I've found all the polo cal threads now, all the threads that matter at any rate.

Even the Elusive East Asian Thread?

Note: All the ones that matter to me, I'm only paying attention to the DPRK thread, when it comes to Asia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: misko27 on September 01, 2017, 05:17:51 pm
You're only on top of them for now, but when Ameripol is locked amidst the flames of the 2018 election, it shall rise again, phoenix-like, into a new Freedom Thread form. (Trying saying that five times fast).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: smjjames on September 01, 2017, 05:22:24 pm
You just want to have your own AmeriPol thread misko, lol. (teasing)

2018 will be interesting for sure, but I doubt it'd get as heated.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Teneb on September 01, 2017, 05:31:01 pm
LAmeripol is immortal. LAmeripol will survive.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Helgoland on September 01, 2017, 06:34:25 pm
Can't we rebrand it as LOLMeripol, under new LW management?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Teneb on September 01, 2017, 06:51:13 pm
Can't we rebrand it as LOLMeripol, under new LW management?
Only when the UK own British Guyana again.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: redwallzyl on September 23, 2017, 09:08:45 pm
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/22/553050477/soldiers-descend-on-rio-favela-as-shootouts-erupt
Quote
Brazil's army says it's dispatching nearly 1,000 troops to the country's largest shanty-town – or "favela" – in the hope of ending a wave of deadly violence that began nearly one week ago.

This afternoon military trucks carrying soldiers brandishing assault weapons began rumbling up to the edge of Rocinha, a sprawl of tumble-down hillside homes, shops, narrow streets and tiny alleys in the south of Rio de Janeiro.

Trouble erupted within the favela early last Sunday, with a five-hour firefight during which residents say they were forced to dive for cover on the floors of their homes as several hundred well-armed gangsters roamed the streets.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Teneb on September 23, 2017, 09:38:26 pm
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/09/22/553050477/soldiers-descend-on-rio-favela-as-shootouts-erupt
Quote
Brazil's army says it's dispatching nearly 1,000 troops to the country's largest shanty-town – or "favela" – in the hope of ending a wave of deadly violence that began nearly one week ago.

This afternoon military trucks carrying soldiers brandishing assault weapons began rumbling up to the edge of Rocinha, a sprawl of tumble-down hillside homes, shops, narrow streets and tiny alleys in the south of Rio de Janeiro.

Trouble erupted within the favela early last Sunday, with a five-hour firefight during which residents say they were forced to dive for cover on the floors of their homes as several hundred well-armed gangsters roamed the streets.
Yeah, been seeing it in the news. State is broken because the previous governor was extremely corrupt and the previous mayor trying to use the Olympics to propel himself further in his political ambitions. No money means no money for security. Which means an increase in crime. And the extremely unpopular president is using the army to secure the region to improve his abysmal popularity.

I am absolutely biased, by the way.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Reelya on September 24, 2017, 09:29:35 am
It's kind of interesting to look at popularity polls of different leaders. Venezuela's Maduro is widely noted to be unpopular, with only 22% saying he's doing a good job (after several months of the protests). However ... that's higher than the president of Mexico, almost as popular as the leaders of Chile and Uraguay, and twice as popular as the president of Brazil. Meanwhile, Colombia's Santos, who got a popularity spike after signing the FARC peace deal has since dropped to about 24% popularity. (https://colombiareports.com/peace-no-peace-colombia-disapproves-president-lot/)

It would seem nobody is popular in South America, but then I remembered to check Bolivia's Evo Morales, and he's sitting at 75% (http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-bolivia-election-20160222-story.html). Which considering that he's managed to grow the economy at a steady 5% the entire 12 years he's been president is understandable. He's also one of those filthy socialists however, so cognitive dissonance there. If merely being a socialist tanks economies then they need to explain Bolivia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Sheb on September 29, 2017, 04:26:57 am
I must admit I sometime find popularity polls puzzling. Like, I get that Hollande wasn't great, but he wasn't terrible either. And his approval rating was what, 4% at the end of his term?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: smjjames on October 08, 2017, 11:44:16 am
I got a laugh out of this, the three southernmost Brazillian states are chest beating over secession threat. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41541063) From the article, it sounds like it's taken as seriously as secession threats are here in the US (that is, not seriously. Though for a bit it looked like California might actually go through with it.) since it's forbidden by the constitution and those southern states have made noise about it many times before. Kind of seems to be a method of venting as it is here in the US since it obviously isn't going to happen. Then again, the government in Brazil is in a pretty bad shape right now.

Going into speculative mode, if those three states actually were to secede (and assumingly form into one state), I wonder how much danger they'd be in from being invaded (or otherwise bullied around by) Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Obviously, this assumes Brazil doesn't get to them first.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Teneb on October 08, 2017, 12:15:15 pm
I got a laugh out of this, the three southernmost Brazillian states are chest beating over secession threat. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41541063) From the article, it sounds like it's taken as seriously as secession threats are here in the US (that is, not seriously. Though for a bit it looked like California might actually go through with it.) since it's forbidden by the constitution and those southern states have made noise about it many times before. Kind of seems to be a method of venting as it is here in the US since it obviously isn't going to happen. Then again, the government in Brazil is in a pretty bad shape right now.

Going into speculative mode, if those three states actually were to secede (and assumingly form into one state), I wonder how much danger they'd be in from being invaded (or otherwise bullied around by) Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Obviously, this assumes Brazil doesn't get to them first.
It's kind of weird because only the southernmost one, Rio Grande do Sul, had actually tried to secede before, leading to a civil war in the region. Paraná and Santa Catarina have always been kind of quiet on that front. I expect secessionist movement to be practically nil in those two. It's not a new thing for the Gaúchos (Natives of RS) to try to vote themselves into independence. It just gets ignored and that is that.

The only country I can even see recognizing this theoretical independence is Paraguay, and purely out of spite.

As for you question of being invaded, Paraguay doesn't have the means to actually pull it off, Uruguay hasn't got the means or the will, and Argentina just won't because it may not like Brazil, but a cordial relationship is useful for both.

The tax angle... those states have it pretty good when it comes to living conditions. Logically, federal taxes should go to places where things are not that good. I just can't sympathize with that argument because it pretty much sounds like "our taxes are going to the poor!".

I'll actually be surprised if anything comes out of it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Reelya on October 08, 2017, 02:15:52 pm
Paraguay and Uruguay aren't big enough to bully anyone. Gotta keep in mind the colossal difference in scale between those other states and Brazil. The south region (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Region,_Brazil) of Brazil is like 30 million people.

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: smjjames on October 08, 2017, 02:21:57 pm
Sounds like it's akin to California or Texas making noise and venting about secession then since that's typically all it is over here, making noise and venting.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: redwallzyl on October 08, 2017, 02:25:17 pm
the last time Paraguay tried to attack them like half the country was killed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: smjjames on October 08, 2017, 02:36:04 pm
the last time Paraguay tried to attack them like half the country was killed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War

Well, they DID pick a fight with the two biggest countries in South America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Teneb on October 08, 2017, 02:47:26 pm
Did some more digging and even the group organizing the vote are saying it won't be legally binding. It's just a way to protest against Temer plus some old-fashioned nationalism from the gaúchos.

And since I mentioned a civil war earlier one, have the obligatory wikipedia[/ulr]. Featuring special guest Garibaldi. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ragamuffin_War)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: redwallzyl on October 08, 2017, 02:56:55 pm
speaking of odd events in south American history:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberto_Fujimori
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregor_MacGregor

history is full of oddities.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Reelya on October 08, 2017, 03:08:27 pm
Here's a report put together by the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Washington based liberal thinktank) about New York Times coverage of south-american politics. The big note is that nytimes seems to selective report "bad stuff" done by anyone left-of-center while seeming to have a blanket-ban on reporting anything bad done by anyone right-of-center. The main data looked at is Venezuelan news coverage, however there's evidence it extends to other nations and topics.

https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13412

The dataset is all the incidents of violence in 1 year in Venezuela, divided by responsible side of violence and intensity. While the right-wing dominate the "high" intensity violence incidents (31 high-intensity acts) and medium (14 acts) and the left were involved in 12 high-intensity acts, and 9 medium acts, the nytimes reported on violence in venezuela 33 times during the time period, yet 31 times they 100% blamed the left, and 2 times they didn't clearly attribute either side.

This definitely backs up my idea that people are fooling themselves if they think that Corporation #A's corporate media is the "left" of America and Corporation #B's corporate media is the "right" of America. Both are on the right, it's just about how far to the right you are. nytimes doesn't like actual Nazis.That's low-hanging fruit. Unless they're Latino Nazis, in which case they literally shit gold.

Quote
“The Post’s views,” such as post-critics director Larry Birns, Mills, Pineo counter-editorial observe, “appear to have been formed by uncritically accepting all of the propaganda offered up by the right-wing opposition press in Venezuela.”

Basically, what this is saying is that the New York Times and Washington Post uncritically reprint news articles from the South American equivalents of FOX News, instead of doing their own research.

e.g. another point of data is what nytimes thinks of Colombia's previous leader Uribe

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/opinion/the-man-blocking-peace-in-colombia.html

You wouldn't know about any of his family's (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/29/colombia-president-alvaro-uribe-brother-charged-death-squad) death squad and drug lord links (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/11/colombian-president-uribe-extradition-drug) and the links between his government's army's widespread mass-murders of peasants. From this, all they say is that peace is Uribe's legacy, and that he needs to get on board with the FARC peace process to protect that legacy. It's like doing a write-up on Hitler and only mentioning the VW Beetle and the Autobahn or something.

https://nacla.org/news/colombia%E2%80%99s-magic-laptops
Quote
Meanwhile, the very day after the Interpol report received so much news coverage  .. the website of the Colombian magazine Semana reported that hard drives and mobile-phone SIM cards belonging to high-level paramilitary leaders extradited to the United States on drug-trafficking charges, had been lost. Hardware belonging to three paramilitary leaders disappeared and was never recovered. Information taken from the laptop of one of the paramilitary bosses, Rodrigo Tovar Pupo a.k.a. Jorge 40, sparked the so-called paramilitary-political scandal in spring 2006, eventually leading to the jailing of more than 30 of Uribe’s parliamentary allies, including Mario Uribe, his cousin, on charges of colluding with narco-paramilitaries.

So ... 30+ of Uribe's party's congressmen including his cousin ended up being convicted as allies to drug-dealing death squads, because of evidence of one drug lord extradited to the USA. Half his government was literally working hand in hand with a secret army of psycho chainsaw-murdering cocaine addicts, who eliminated anyone who dares question the ruling party. And we're only talking like 10 years ago. His niece is also a drug-lord ally, and his brother is one of the narco-death squad leaders. Then, in 2008 his government conveniently lost all the evidence against a numer of other drug lords, and which was conveniently announced a few days after they Bombed Ecuador and was lost in the shitstorm of whether there would be a war. Meanwhile the Bush administration decided to let the drug evidence thing slide and criticize Ecuador instead for not being ok with being bombed (Ecuador had recently refused to renew the lease on the US airbase before this happened).

Plus I haven't even got into the scale of the death squad and army atrocities going on during Uribe's regime. Not of their secret police activities against independent journalists and the like. And New York times would have you believe that Uribe's only legacy is "peace".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: smjjames on October 08, 2017, 04:34:00 pm
South America getting little, and selective at that, coverage in the US isn't news.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: Paxiecrunchle on October 12, 2017, 09:18:47 pm
South America getting little, and selective at that, coverage in the US isn't news.
Ah my friend, but it should be not everyone actually knows that the bias is that bad...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The South Is Not My Country
Post by: Reelya on October 12, 2017, 09:54:33 pm
Yep, that was my point: even the most revered liberal papers (nytimes and wapo) are on the level of FOX News when it comes to Latin America. Those "liberal" papers just faithfully reprint articles from Latin far-right news sources which are on par with FOX News or even Infowars. There's basically no quality control there at all. Imagine how much off-base the actual conservative press would be then.

So yeah, it's the scale and pervasiveness of the bias that people aren't aware of. e.g. in the Venezuela study mentioned, 72% of all serious violent incidents were not being reported/represented by nytimes, because those were conducted by right-wing elements. And it's some unwritten rule that nytimes doesn't report on those. Just saying "bias" and "selective" gives you the impression that they're cutting out e.g. 50% of the incidents and that it's 50/50 in reality. But when you realize they're omitting almost all of something, and doing that in a very biased way, you realize that the entire narrative is inherently untrustworthy: if one group is doing 3/4 violent attacks that makes it much more likely that the other group which is doing 1/4 attacks is in fact doing that mainly because they are being provoked. But nytimes' exclusive reporting only on the provoked violence creates a false counter-narrative. Maybe that's wrong too, however without an unbiased source that merely reports things in proportion it's impossible to trust any particular narrative.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The South Is Not My Country
Post by: Reelya on October 17, 2017, 10:47:09 pm
Bump, but Venezuela just had their regional elections, and the PSUV picked up 17 out of 23 governorships. There was also significant international observer presence

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13442
Quote
Caracas, October 16, 2017 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The Latin American Council of Electoral Experts (CEELA) has confirmed that Sunday’s vote in Venezuelan gubernatorial elections was clean and transparent.

“The vote took place peacefully and without problems… the vote reflects the will of [Venezuelan] citizens,” declared CEELA President Nicanor Moscoso during a press conference Monday morning.

The CEELA delegation was comprised of 1300 international observers, including former Colombian Electoral Court President Guillermo Reyes, ex-president of the Honduran Supreme Electoral Court, Augusto Aguilar, and former Peruvian electoral magistrate Gastón Soto.

notice how the international media aren't even touching this news to claim that Maduro is committing voter fraud. It would be a perfect time to do so. But they're being 100% silent on this. Why do you think that is, exactly? It's because they can't spin this to show that Maduro is on the way out, and meanwhile there was a strong international observer presence that found no signs of electoral tampering.

Despite the media narrative there's never been any real evidence of the socialists tampering with the electoral system in Venezuela. Note that the media vaguely hints at it without ever citing incidents when it happened. The closest to "election tampering" that they will cite is not an actual election, it's when the Supreme Court declared a petition to hold a one-off referedum to remove Maduro to be unconstitutional (citing irregularities in the signatures collected). Which - hello Spain? - But Venezuela wasn't in fact beating up 900 people to stop that petition. In fact, given the scale of the opposition violence in the protests, the low response from the Venezuelan government is in fact what's abnormal here on an international scale.

Quote
The MUD has accused the National Electoral Council of attempting to suppress opposition turnout by relocating 334 voting centers previously targeted by anti-government violence during July 30’s National Constituent Assembly Elections.

Uhh, so because the government relocated voting centers that the opposition previously tried to burn down, that's oppression now. This is basically the harshest accusation the opposition can apparently come up with to show how Maduro is rigging the system. If that's it, then it's pathetic.

Quote
The results have, however, been rejected by the MUD, which has alleged “fraud” and called on its supporters to take to the streets in protest.

So ... election lost, so lets fuck shit up. Good on ya. This sort of fits with what I'm reading about howe the opposition protests are entirely centered arounsd a few upper middle class districts. Basically those guys used to have 100% dominance of social and political life, now that's more spread out with the >60% of the nation who are poor being the support based of Chavez/Maduro. Before Chavez, 53% of the nation was below the poverty line. Things aren't perfect, they have problems, but less people are below the poverty line now than that.
http://cepr.net/publications/reports/update-venezuela-economy
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The South Is Not My Country
Post by: smjjames on October 17, 2017, 11:09:55 pm
The MUD is the opposition, right?

Also, apparently the US is taking the side of the opposition and condemning that election. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41646488)

One of the oppositions complaints is also that there was a lack of independent, credible international observers.

Funny how it's the international media that has jumped on the 'ignore South America' bandwagon when it was just mostly US outlets doing that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The South Is Not My Country
Post by: Reelya on October 17, 2017, 11:10:20 pm
https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13446

Quote
    Falcon lost by a 17-point margin to socialist party challenger Carmen Melendez, who successfully channeled popular discontent towards the governor’s support for violent anti-government protests earlier this year.

    Speaking Tuesday, President Nicolas Maduro thanked Falcon for his posture and raised the possibility of naming him as ambassador to Colombia.

    “I thank Henri Falcon for all of his efforts… Maybe Henri Falcon can be named to a government post, ambassador perhaps, in Colombia could be,” he stated.


So you have Maduro offering government posts to some of the opposition leaders who lost the regional elections, someone who was vocally anti-government at that.

Hardly seems like something strongman Maduro who dictates party loyalty with an Iron Fist would do. Probably won't be reported in the West, either, because that goes against the narrative.

Quote
Former MUD Secretary General Jesus “Chuo” Torrealba took aim at the coalition’s leadership for failing to present evidence of alleged irregularities.

    “The MUD’s declaration worries me because it doesn’t make sense,” he said.

    “It’s not about whether or not you believe the results. The opposition has witnesses at all the voting machines and has a copy of each one of these vote tallies. What they have to say is, ‘Here I have the tallies, and what I have here doesn’t match the results,’” he continued.

    The MUD has demanded a full audit of Sunday’s vote, a call that was previously made by President Nicolas Maduro.

so there you have it from a former opposition party leader. MUD has election observers at all booths, they are provided with full copies of all paper trails from all machines, they observe every vote and transaction. If they're going to cry "fraud" then where are the numbers for that?

Also note that Maduro suggested a full audit even before the MUD brought it up. Ah .. but maybe Maduro is tricking us! Sneaky Maduro! By processing an audit of the entire election along with the MUD he's just doubling down on whatever sneaky trickery he pulled that nobody can explain. He's a like an election David Copperfield.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The South Is Not My Country
Post by: smjjames on October 17, 2017, 11:15:02 pm
I spy a missed opportunity to make a MUDdy pun, but maybe it doesn't work in Spanish. Edit: Yeah, looked at google translate and it doesn't work in Spanish.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: Dorsidwarf on October 18, 2017, 03:34:49 am
Let's be honest - the capital w West is never going to stop giving Maduro's Venezuela shit, because Mkay Guys Maybe We Were Wrong About These Socialists Just A Bit is a headline that just won't happen
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: Reelya on October 18, 2017, 04:48:52 am
Yeah, he's an odd sort of "dictator", when the supreme court thing happened in the apparent coup, he got the supreme court to reverse their order within 48 hours, it actually happened before the first protestor hit the streets. Proper dictators do not back down peacefully because you say you're going to hold a protest.

The guys are in fact softer than most democratically-elected governments. Almost all normal elected governments if they implement something that the public doesn't like just keep going "well screw you" until after the shit truly hits the fan. They've learned to just weather criticism and do what they want. They don't backpedal because you say you're slightly peeved.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: SaberToothTiger on October 21, 2017, 11:38:55 am
ptw

I will vote for Maduro as the president of all americas in the 2020 elections.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: Ggobs on October 21, 2017, 02:52:27 pm
ptw
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on November 17, 2017, 12:11:38 pm
Argentina loses contact with submarine at sea. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/argentine-navy-loses-contact-with-submarine/2017/11/17/e1172932-cba6-11e7-b506-8a10ed11ecf5_story.html?utm_term=.96772006abcf)

Could be just a communications problem, could be something worse. There's really no way to tell at this point, but I will note that that submarine is an old boat(bought in 1985, iirc), and that the Argentinian Navy has had a lot of maintenance issues in the past.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Revolutionary Rose of Colombia
Post by: thvaz on November 17, 2017, 06:18:16 pm
It would seem nobody is popular in South America, but then I remembered to check Bolivia's Evo Morales, and he's sitting at 75% (http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-bolivia-election-20160222-story.html). Which considering that he's managed to grow the economy at a steady 5% the entire 12 years he's been president is understandable. He's also one of those filthy socialists however, so cognitive dissonance there. If merely being a socialist tanks economies then they need to explain Bolivia.

Well Bolivia in first place is a shit hole*. It is the poorest Latin American country after Haiti, and we are talking African Hell levels of poverty when we talk about Haiti. ANYTHING positive the government does in a place so poor will get instant positive results. And despite being a socialist in name, Evo Morales took many market-oriented policies and is usually very pragmatic, governing with what just works instead of following ideologies that work only in the mind of rebelious youngsters.

*I never went there but lived in a work camp abroad with about 500 bolivians from all walks of life for four years.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: smjjames on November 19, 2017, 10:46:00 am
Argentina loses contact with submarine at sea. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/argentine-navy-loses-contact-with-submarine/2017/11/17/e1172932-cba6-11e7-b506-8a10ed11ecf5_story.html?utm_term=.96772006abcf)

Could be just a communications problem, could be something worse. There's really no way to tell at this point, but I will note that that submarine is an old boat(bought in 1985, iirc), and that the Argentinian Navy has had a lot of maintenance issues in the past.

Some good news, no, it hasn't been found yet, but they did attempt to contact Argentine bases yesterday http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/19/americas/argentina-missing-submarine/index.html , which indicates that they are certainly still alive somewhere. The protocol in case of loss of communication is to immediately surface (which is probably universial among navies), so, if they are unable to surface, that could indicate a worse problem.

Assets that the Argentinians requested (not sure if NASA and the US Navy volunteered and went ahead or they volunteered and Argentina had to accept it. There's also a Brirish ship assisting) are either already there or en-route.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: MUD slinging
Post by: Teneb on November 19, 2017, 10:57:20 am
It would seem nobody is popular in South America, but then I remembered to check Bolivia's Evo Morales, and he's sitting at 75% (http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-bolivia-election-20160222-story.html). Which considering that he's managed to grow the economy at a steady 5% the entire 12 years he's been president is understandable. He's also one of those filthy socialists however, so cognitive dissonance there. If merely being a socialist tanks economies then they need to explain Bolivia.

Well Bolivia in first place is a shit hole*. It is the poorest Latin American country after Haiti, and we are talking African Hell levels of poverty when we talk about Haiti. ANYTHING positive the government does in a place so poor will get instant positive results. And despite being a socialist in name, Evo Morales took many market-oriented policies and is usually very pragmatic, governing with what just works instead of following ideologies that work only in the mind of rebelious youngsters.

*I never went there but lived in a work camp abroad with about 500 bolivians from all walks of life for four years.
One thing people need to understand about Evo Morales' popularity is that he is is the first indigenous president of the country. The indigenous population of Bolivia also tends towards xenophobia towards those not of that cultural group. Further boosting his popularity is, of course, his actions to make Bolivia less of a complete shithole and having an anti-USA stance. One of the easiest ways to get popular support in South America (unless you are in Colombia, in which case it's political suicide) is to take stances and measures that (or at least appear to) weaken the grasp of USA imperialism on the country.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 19, 2017, 11:06:11 am
I don't think US imperialism is as severe in South America as it used to be, say 50 years ago. Though granted, we still see South America as being in our sphere of influence and ours alone and see it as our personal backyard from time to time, despite mostly ignoring South America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Teneb on November 19, 2017, 11:25:27 am
I don't think US imperialism is as severe in South America as it used to be, say 50 years ago. Though granted, we still see South America as being in our sphere of influence and ours alone and see it as our personal backyard from time to time, despite mostly ignoring South America.
Yeah, it's not as bad as it used to be back in the days of US-backed dictatorships, but 'staters are still seen as an acceptable target (it is very rapidly being dropped in Brazil for a Left vs Right split).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Reelya on November 19, 2017, 05:23:15 pm
I don't think US imperialism is as severe in South America as it used to be, say 50 years ago. Though granted, we still see South America as being in our sphere of influence and ours alone and see it as our personal backyard from time to time, despite mostly ignoring South America.

You don't have to go back quite 50 years. The peak meddling was Reagan/Bush Senior. Remember that the invasion of Panama was just over 25 years ago.

The democrats (Carter and Clinton) tended to dial it back however - Carter signed a deal to return the Panama Canal to local control, then Bush Senior invaded Panama a few years before that deal could go ahead, then Clinton beat Bush in the election, and he went ahead with the planned handover. Basically, if Clinton hadn't won the Republicans probably would have reneged on Carter's deal: they were still yelling about how the communists would get us if we do that right up to 1999, but of course since the Soviets fell, this time they were claiming that the Communist Chinese would take over Panama if we hand back ownership.

Bush junior just didn't focus on the area because he was bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, but they did massively prop up their regional proxy - Colombia. So you have a muddled policy there where Bush was basically funding a highly aggressive local rising military power (Uribe's Colombia) as an "Israel"-like proxy. And there is a far amount of evidence of US involvement in the 2002 Venezuela military coup, plus they were cheering Colombia when those guys bombed Ecuador in 2008. Basically, there's good evidence that the Republicans were trying to move to a "proxy" situation with Colombia like they have with Israel, e.g. a permanently aggressive client state justified because of FARC.

But when Santos did the FARC demobilization deal then all that planning went to shit basically. Note that the Republicans have been screaming murder over the FARC peace deal. Google "republicans on farc peace deal" and all the stories are about the Republicans wanting to block peace. They don't want civil war to end in Colombia, because FARC in Colombia is their main excuse for propping up the Far Right in Latin America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 19, 2017, 05:47:02 pm
Or their position is that they view the FARC as terrorists, but really, it’s the same thing as the US tending to view South America as our personal stomping grounds.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Reelya on November 19, 2017, 05:51:15 pm
I'm really skeptical of that terrorist point. The republicans backed the amnesty for right-wing paramilitary groups in Colombia in 2002/2003, The Bush Administration even de-listed them as a terrorist organization to make it all work. And those guys were responsible for around 80% of all civilian casualties in the civil war.

This is just a rather extreme form of partisanship from the Republicans. Propping up right-wing people literally as bad as Hitler and trying to prevent an accord with the rebels they're fighting, since they know that would be the political end for the type of aggressive militarism in Colombia of the type Uribe was pushing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 19, 2017, 05:58:55 pm
You mean left wing, the Republicans are right wing and FARC are communists/socialists which is left wing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Teneb on November 19, 2017, 06:06:38 pm
You mean left wing, the Republicans are right wing and FARC are communists/socialists which is left wing.
No, Reelya is saying that the Republicans are propping up people who are Hitler-tier bad, rather than propping them up as being Literal Hitlers.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Reelya on November 19, 2017, 07:35:53 pm
You mean left wing, the Republicans are right wing and FARC are communists/socialists which is left wing.

No i don't. Maybe you just didn't parse my statement properly.

Or you don't know who the paramilitaries are or the history there. Here' an overview for clarification of why i did mean right wing when I said right wing:

- The paramilitaries are the extreme-right, they have strong links to Uribe's family and political allies.
- They were responsible for 80% of all civilian killings in the civl war, including torture and rape of children. one favorite was chainsawing people in half, including kids.
- popular Para targets were unionists, teachers, human rights activists, journalists, etc. Basically, hired goons killing liberals and protesters, while the government called them "Secret FARC members".
   - NOTE: this stuff is why I can legitimately say they are "hitler level" bad. Pro-government assassin squads straight up murdering the political opposition. Squads made up of insane chainsaw murderers at that.
- The paramilitaries were declared terrorist organizations by the Clinton administration
- Bush Administration then de-listed them as terrorists.
- They then got given an amnesty by Uribe. Basically admit killing kids is bad, and the government slaps you on the wrist "well now you know! don't do it again" and lets you go

So, this is the right wing I was referring to.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 19, 2017, 07:40:58 pm
I didn't quite parse it properly, Teneb got the misparsing.

The not knowing who the paramilitaries and the history (other than that it was a civil war, had been going for some time, and was/is brutal) is true, but it really was a misread of the sentence as I was reading pretty fast.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 20, 2017, 09:43:47 am
Turns out the sattelite signals weren't from the missing sub, no word yet on what they think those were from, but yeah, bad news and popping the bubble of everybody hoped. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42055676
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Helgoland on November 20, 2017, 11:36:23 pm
   - NOTE: this stuff is why I can legitimately say they are "hitler level" bad. Pro-government assassin squads straight up murdering the political opposition. Squads made up of insane chainsaw murderers at that.
That's not Hitler-level bad, that's just Stalin-level bad. Hitler-level bad is qualitatively worse.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: scriver on November 21, 2017, 06:12:22 am
Being trapped underwater with oxygen running out is one of my absolutest worst ways to go. I really hope they're okay out there somewhere, somehow.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Reelya on November 21, 2017, 09:23:09 am
   - NOTE: this stuff is why I can legitimately say they are "hitler level" bad. Pro-government assassin squads straight up murdering the political opposition. Squads made up of insane chainsaw murderers at that.
That's not Hitler-level bad, that's just Stalin-level bad. Hitler-level bad is qualitatively worse.

There are mass-graves with thousands of bodies that have been discovered by UN inspectors near army bases there. They've been exterminating whole villages, and to give you an idea, they are the world leaders in trade union murders. But by "world leaders" I mean they kill more than the entire rest of the world combined:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_unions_in_Colombia
Quote
Between 2000 and 2010 Colombia accounted for 63.12% of trade unionists murdered globally.
Seriously, they win the "murdering trade unionists" world cup.

And to give you an idea, the Colombian army in 2008 published their kill-count figures, which were 110,000 for 2002-2008 even though there are less than 30,000 rebels. And remeber, 80% of the killings aren't the official army, but by the allied paramilitaries. Basically, i just haven't documented the scale of this shit for you, but it's big. It's not as concentrated as the Nazis, however they were at this for around 10 times the length of WWII.

The most current report on killings is 220,000. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/25/colombia-conflict-death-toll-commission) However, I think there are a number of categories of killings by pro-government forces that they aren't counting in that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Sheb on November 21, 2017, 09:25:25 am
Yup, pretty much Stalin-level.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Reelya on November 21, 2017, 09:37:15 am
Also another thing I didn't touch on was the systematic kidnappings and murders by the official army of teenagers. Basically from 2002-2008 it was common practice to round up random young people (or lure them with fake employment adverts), dress them in fatigues then machine-gun them down and claim they won a battle against rebels. Just the ones that are known and identified that are being prosecuted exceeds 3000 murders of this type, and this only covers roughly 2002-2008. You see, Uribe gave Colombian soldiers cash bonuses and promotions based on bodycounts. The head of the entire national army was  personally implicated in doing this stuff and had to resign - it's how he got promoted in the first place:

Quote
For its part, HRW notes that at least 44 alleged extrajudicial killings were carried out by the Fourth Brigade under the leadership of General Montoya (who then later became the army’s top commander), while at least 48 alleged false positive killings were carried out by the Ninth Brigade under the leadership of General Lasprilla Villamizar.

And since that 3000 is only a tiny fraction of the kill-count claimed by the Colombian military for the 2002-2008 period ... it's anyone's guess as to how many their actually were.

EDIT: aaaand my figures are out of date. They're now saying around 6000 deaths for that particular scam:
http://www.peoplesworld.org/article/colombian-army-killed-innocent-civilians-to-boost-rebel-body-count/
 
However, if you want to compare them to the Nazis then it needs to be done on a proportional basis. What percentage of the population of Europe did the Nazis kill vs what percentage of Colombia did the army+paras kill? Since the population Colombia is about 10% of the population in Europe circa 1940, then you'd have to inflate their kill-count by about 10 to get an estimate of how genocidal they actually are, which assuming 200,000 deaths caused by the army+paras (inline with the 220,000 figure and the fact that the pro-government forces are responsible for the vast majority of killings) then that's the equivalent of wiping out 2 million people in Europe in 1940. Proportionally, they are almost in line with the Nazis.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Helgoland on November 21, 2017, 09:49:54 am
Okay, the 'killing young people' thing is more like Mao. But apart from that - yeah, it all sounds like early Soviet Union stuff.

You gotta remember: The terrifying, qualitatively different thing about the Nazis is not the scale of the killing. It is that they killed not for material reasons, but for abstract ones - selecting for qualities that neither their victims nor society as a whole was necessarily aware of, and that were intrinsic to their victims, i.e. could not be changed at all. They slaughtered people for reasons that were essentially aesthetic, not political.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 21, 2017, 10:27:18 am
The search for that sub is still ongoing: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42064144 , two false alarms so far, no word on what the sattelite signals were from and the banging noises sounded more like marine life than morse code or something.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Sheb on November 21, 2017, 12:11:20 pm
Okay, the 'killing young people' thing is more like Mao. But apart from that - yeah, it all sounds like early Soviet Union stuff.

You gotta remember: The terrifying, qualitatively different thing about the Nazis is not the scale of the killing. It is that they killed not for material reasons, but for abstract ones - selecting for qualities that neither their victims nor society as a whole was necessarily aware of, and that were intrinsic to their victims, i.e. could not be changed at all. They slaughtered people for reasons that were essentially aesthetic, not political.

That and also the sheer scale of what they had planned which goes even beyond what they did. It's impossible to read about the Hunger Plan and not have a shiver go down your spine. I mean, we're not arguing that Colombia wasn't a brutal, mass-murderous regime or anything. Just that Hitler went even beyond that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on November 23, 2017, 11:08:30 am
Not good news for the sub, apparently hours after the sub went missing, the US detected a hydro-acoustic anomaly in the area, an explosion, which they relayed to the Argentinians. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42100620

Nothing known about the cause, could have been a missile exploding (Kursk for example), or could have been something exploding on impact with the seabed, or possibly from reaching crush depth.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on December 10, 2017, 09:23:51 pm
Maduro has gone full <pick your favorite dictator>, he banned the three major opposition parties from participating in next years elections (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42304594) after they boycotted the mayoral elections that happened this weekend.

Basically, he's like "if you're not gonna play the game, I'm gonna take the ball home with me, plus the whole playing field."
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: Reelya on December 10, 2017, 09:49:31 pm
Well, to be fair those parties have more or less decided to renounce electoral politics and repeatedly call for armed overthrow of the elected government as the best means of taking power. I'm not sure that any government would take too kindly to that sort of thing. If they're not even running but want to remove the guy from power, then they would be tacitly calling for armed overthrow even if they didn't publicly call for that, which they have actually done continuously.

There are right-wing gangs connected to those parties who go around lynching leftists:
http://www.coha.org/right-wing-terrorism-in-venezuela/

I mean, if there were Neo-Nazi gangs going around burning Democrats to death in America, and the government said the party they represent were legitimate political parties who's rights had to be respected, how would you actually feel about that?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/02/venezuela-judge-nelson-moncada-murder-political-motivation

^ here is one incident from earlier this year where a judge was going home, and got murdered at an opposition street barricade. It's the typical type of "protest" death that is counted in the total Maduro is held accountable for. Except because he was a public figure, it became newsworthy. Basically the opposition randomly murder people then they highlight the "death toll" as Maduro's fault. The security forces have basically been operating in a purely defensive mode throughout all of this. They've shown much more restraint than most countries would.

Can you imagine if a judge in America was murdered at an Antifa roadblock? How do you think the American police would react? Would it just be water-hoses and tear gas? Most of the deaths in the protests were random murders by the right-wing designed to try and provoke a deadly reaction from the state forces. A reaction which was not really forthcoming the way it would be anywhere else. I mean, these guys aren't like Occupy Wall Street. OWS didn't just randomly kill anyone in a business suit, which is how the protestors in Venezuela act.

Man, a political slap on the wrist from the government after these party's supporters went around murdering people at random, and those parties refused to condemn the violence, only to escalate things now, is much less than most countries would have done.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Adam and Evo
Post by: smjjames on December 10, 2017, 10:19:28 pm
It did read like "If you don't want to participate, then fine, you're off the ballot for the presidency".

Venezuela is a real mess, and thats probably an understatement. :/
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Evils of Canada
Post by: Teneb on December 23, 2017, 05:34:48 pm
Venezuela has expelled both the brazillian ambassador and the canadian... chief of affairs? from the country. (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-42469225)

I am not as well informed on the canadian side of things so I won't go into detail towards it, but officially the reason for expelling the brazilian diplomat is because of last year's coup. Which, of course, bring up the question of why do it now, over a year later. The real reason seems to be that the brazilian government has accused Maduro of harassing the venezuelan opposition.

Regardless of the validity of that accusation, it does seems a bit too much like a tantrum to me.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Evils of Canada
Post by: smjjames on December 24, 2017, 09:49:29 am
The article says that Venezuela is accusing Canada of 'interfering in internal affairs', which could mean whatever they want it to mean really. Though the sanctions Canada imposed certainly had something to do with it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Evils of Canada
Post by: scriver on December 24, 2017, 12:16:12 pm
Should we blame the government?
Or blame society?
Or should we blame the images on TV?

No, blame Canada, blame Canada
With all their beady little eyes
And flappin' heads so full of lies

Blame Canada, blame Canada
We need to form a full assault
It's Canada's fault

Blame Cana da, blame Canada
It seems that everything's gone wrong
Since Canada came along

Blame Canada, blame Canada
There not even a real country anyway
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Evils of Canada
Post by: smjjames on January 07, 2018, 06:29:38 pm
Hm, Russia might be (or trying to) messing with Mexico's upcoming Presidential election. (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/367844-mcmaster-points-to-russian-interference-in-mexican-election)

It's just a warning from HR McMaster nearly a month ago and nothing solid yet (nothing public that I know of anyway). I could see Russia doing it just to make that leftist candidate become President just to sow division with the US, but any sort of reward coming from that depends on them not finding out Russia did it.

Also, if they're willing to mess with the Mexican Presidential election right now, then they are DEFINETLY willing to do it to the US midterms. We're gonna have to make sure that Russia didn't try any shit in November, or during the primaries.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Evils of Canada
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 07, 2018, 06:37:56 pm
Article sounds a bit bullshitty TBH. Russian meddling is becoming the new buzzword... which was probably the intention all along. Now western politicians throw at each other accusations of being Russian stooges, and thus undermine confidence in the democratic process.

Quote
He also referenced the Catalan independence referendum last year as an another case of Russian meddling.
Noone outside the Popular Party in Spain has actually defended the factuality of this.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Evils of Canada
Post by: smjjames on January 07, 2018, 06:54:44 pm
Huh, hadn't noticed that comment. If Russia did try, they evidently failed there and the new vote in December because the performance there in December was no better than the previous parliament makeup.

Whether they actually had any impact in the other elections in Europe seems dubious as far as I know.

It'd be even harder for Russia to try to meddle with elections during midterms because things are so decentralized. But still, I'd like to make sure that they don't because the Russian government needs a metaphorical punch to the face for it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vamanos, muchacho Putin
Post by: smjjames on January 18, 2018, 10:35:36 pm
Lol, if that Andres Obrador candidate in Mexico becomes President, US-Mexico relations are gonna get both spicy and salty (http://thehill.com/latino/369670-mexican-presidential-candidate-threatens-twitter-tit-for-tat-with-trump). Maybe not salty, but it definetly looks like he is perfectly willing to play Trump at his own game.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vamanos, muchacho Putin
Post by: martinuzz on January 18, 2018, 10:39:47 pm
He wants to build a border wall and make the US pay for it?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vamanos, muchacho Putin
Post by: smjjames on January 18, 2018, 10:49:00 pm
\/O\/

More like Trump's same rhetoric of 'we will make other countries respect us again and put them in their place!', except applied to Trump and respecting Trump at the same time. Basically playing Trump at his own game while at the same time, not playing Trump at his own game.

Or TL;DR: "We're going to teach Trump to respect us, BUT, we will respect him first."
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vamanos, muchacho Putin
Post by: Culise on January 18, 2018, 10:49:15 pm
In the grim darkness of the 21st century, there is no diplomacy, only flame wars.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Vamanos, muchacho Putin
Post by: Sheb on January 19, 2018, 02:22:56 am
\/O\/

More like Trump's same rhetoric of 'we will make other countries respect us again and put them in their place!', except applied to Trump and respecting Trump at the same time. Basically playing Trump at his own game while at the same time, not playing Trump at his own game.

Or TL;DR: "We're going to teach Trump to respect us, BUT, we will respect him first."

Hardly surprising. It's funny how populist all forgets that other countries also have electorates, and expect them to take abuse without flinching.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: We'll build a wall and make the US pay for it
Post by: smjjames on January 19, 2018, 10:34:02 am
\/O\/

More like Trump's same rhetoric of 'we will make other countries respect us again and put them in their place!', except applied to Trump and respecting Trump at the same time. Basically playing Trump at his own game while at the same time, not playing Trump at his own game.

Or TL;DR: "We're going to teach Trump to respect us, BUT, we will respect him first."

Hardly surprising. It's funny how populist all forgets that other countries also have electorates, and expect them to take abuse without flinching.

Trump is especially thin skinned though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: We'll build a wall and make the US pay for it
Post by: Reelya on January 30, 2018, 11:46:27 pm
Here's one for y'all:

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/incidents/americans-who-visited-cuba-reporting-similar-symptoms-suffered-by-us-diplomats/news-story/732946a1cd7a8bb96b8ad80e805fbcd4

Quote
AMERICANS are returning from Cuba with strange symptoms, including hearing loss and brain abnormalities, prompting suggestions the island nation is “attacking” Americans.

Almost two dozen Americans who travelled to Cuba have reported experiencing similar symptoms to those suffered by US diplomats serving at the American Embassy, Fox News reports.

...

At least 24 US Embassy officials in Cuba had reported hearing loud, grating noises before experiencing ear issues, hearing loss, dizziness, headache, fatigue, cognitive issues and difficulty sleeping.

Doctors reportedly discovered the diplomats suffered from brain abnormalities, as the white matter in their brains had “developed changes”.

The US has stood by their allegations that Cuba in some way deliberately attacked the American officials — which Cuba has adamantly denied — and earlier this month raised the possibility that a virus was deployed intentionally to infect workers.

I'm scared by that "white matter in their brains had 'developed changes' " thing. Just what have they done to their brains? Are they doppelgangers or have their brains been replaced by alien life-forms?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: We'll build a wall and make the US pay for it
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 12:08:12 am
If it's a virus, then how come other non-Americans haven't reported it yet AFAIK? I seriously doubt Cuba would be able to confine a virus to only infecting Americans and not infect other people.

The 'developed changes' is just a medically vague term possibly referring to lesions.

Still, it's a hell of a mystery as to what the heck is going on.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: We'll build a wall and make the US pay for it
Post by: scriver on January 31, 2018, 01:01:41 am
Maybe socialism is actually a virus, and that's why it's not infecting other countries - they already carry a strain. Maybe their catching communism.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: We'll build a wall and make the US pay for it
Post by: SaberToothTiger on January 31, 2018, 01:14:55 am
Maybe it's proof for the theory that the yanqui nation is inferior to the Glorious Cuban Master Race. Maybe Cuba will now go for a Manifest Destiny on the US (in this metaphor the US will be both the Mexicans and the Indians).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: We'll build a wall and make the US pay for it
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 01:32:51 am
Heh, on the Latin note, I read something a little while ago that made me :/ about Venezuela. Note, not supporting Maduro: more pointing out how idiotic both sides coverage of events is.

One American journalist wrote : "the economy is collapsing, there are protests in the streets, yet the president hasn't been toppled from office. That's not how Democracy works".

Umm, actually, that is exactly how democracy works. He won the last Presidential election. His term hasn't expired yet. The entire nation could turn into a zombie-infested hell-hole, because he accidentally released the T-Virus, and it would still be his legal term in office. And if you're legally in office, and there is violence trying to topple you, you're fully in your legal rights to ask the police to prevent the violence, which is what has happened. There's nothing illegal about shutting down actual riots that are trying to overthrow the government. The idea that elected leaders who prove unpopular must be violently overthrown or it's not "true democracy" seems like a pretty weird - and convenient - definition to apply here.

BTW right now, the Constituent Assembly has set April 30th as the far-limit for the next presidential election in Venezuela, so there's going to be some election coverage and news etc. Here is some breakdown of the parties and candidates involved.

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13627

These are some potential opposition candidates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Ramos_Allup, "Democratic Action" party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henri_Falc%C3%B3n, "Fatherland for all" party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andr%C3%A9s_Vel%C3%A1squez, "Radical Cause" party

But note, Americans probably won't take comfort in any of these people winning. e.g. -

- Henry Ramos Allup is an opposition candidate, who was elected head of the National Assembly by the MUD coalition, when they ousted the PSUV im 2015, which America hailed as a great day for Democracy, but he was also elected president of the Socialist International in 2012.

- Henri Falcon is an ex-PSUV guy (came out of Maduro's party). He's in MUD now, representing the "Fatherland for all" party, who list themselves as a Libertarian Marxist / social democratic party / "Comunismo de izquierda" party - this means anti-bolshevik communist, literally "left communist". I guess they're like Trotskyists or something.

- Andrés Velásquez is the leader of a party called "Radical Cause", who are listed as a "revolutionary socialist political party".

Here's the list of pretty much ever party that has any standing in Venezuela.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Venezuela

The thing you gotta love is how scary most of the party names are "Primero Justicia", "A New Era", "Popular Will", "La Causa Radical", "Cuentas Claras" (clear accounts), "Fearless People's Alliance", "Vanguardia Bicentenaria Republicana, "Emergent People", "Project Venezuela", "Fatherland for all" ... all sound pretty fascistic. And these are most of the non-Maduro choices to pick from.

"Primero Justicia" "Justice First" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_First) is the biggest opposition party, but they're a radical socialist party, who have a platform of democratizing all the means of production. e.g. they're further towards trad. socialism than even Maduro:
Quote
On March 2009, the party's national coordinator Julio Borges said, "Venezuela lives under state capitalism, not socialism".[5] The party's economic position is so-called "properties democratization," similar to a social market economy. In the 2012 presidential election, Henrique Capriles described himself as humanist and progressive.

"Acción Democrática" Democratic Action (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Action_(Venezuela)) are the second-biggest opposition party. They're also the party responsible for the biggest massacre of protestors in Venezuelan history, in 1992, when the government killed somewhere between several hundred to several thousand protestors. Apparently the "Democratic" part of the "Action" is where they send the army in to shoot protestors. Note, however for anyone hoping that Democratic Action is going to put the past behind them and be a true conservative option: they're also members of Socialist International.

"Un Nuevo Tiempo" A New Era (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_New_Era)" which joined the Socialist International in 2013. Their policies favor join private/public ownership of resources, state economic planning, and creating a sovereign wealth fund. I'd say they're sort of like Signapore then, but with lip service to Sweden's sort of social value system.

Next after that is "Voluntad Popular" => "Popular Will", yet another Venezuelan party who's part of Socialist International..

... and they're followed by the fore-mentioned "La Causa Radical", who bill themselves as "revolutionary socialists", and were founded by previous communist guerillas during the military junta / dictatorship era.

... who are followed by "Movimiento Progresista de Venezuela" who write:
Quote
We, militants of the Venezuelan Progressive Movement, aware that the fundamental enemy of today's Venezuelans is poverty and social injustice , believe that the model of development to defeat these scourges is that which provides social progress. be built through a mixed economy where the state is the owner of the basic basic industries, managed with appropriate management and technical criteria, and distributed, but at the same time, the State must guarantee clear rules to private initiative and legal guarantees in the long term with the purpose of promoting it.

There's another party, sort of like the Republicans, the Christian Democrats, they used to be the #2 party, however they boycotted the last several elections and have no seats. Trump would like them to win, the most, probably.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 06:56:06 pm
Interesting different take on the three parties "banned" from running in Venezuela, which highlights how the media doesn't give the full story:

Remember, western media was saying that certain parties were banned from running? It turns out that all that actually happened was that they made them fill out their party registration paperwork again. All of those parties are in fact registered and running in the election.

https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13621

Quote
This past December, Venezuela’s ANC approved a decree requiring the three largest opposition parties to renew themselves with the CNE following their controversial decision to boycott December 10 municipal elections.

AD, First Justice, and the Popular Will party together with the Union and Understanding Party (Puente) and Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) opposition umbrella party were required to prove they have the support of at least 0.5 percent of registered voters in 12 states.

So, the "banning" effectively meant they needed to go and collect signatures from 0.5% of the electorate each. Sure, this was probably in retaliation for the time in December where those parties mass-boycotted the last elections, then when the other party won the elections unopposed, they cried foul and called for foreign military intervention.

But basically, it amounts to little more than making someone do extra paperwork. It's not the kind of thing an actual dictatorship does. Maduro isn't a military strongman: he just annoys you with additional forms to fill out.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 07:03:33 pm
As for the whole bunch of socialist parties, didn't the whole Chavez/Maduro stuff show the problems with at least the Chavez/Maduro brand of socialism? I don't know how much of it can be purely attributed to socialist policies not working (as Republicans would love to tell you, despite Social Security being a thing) vs just mismanagement and corruption. I'm sure there's probably a fierce debate over that among some people in Venezuela.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 07:22:29 pm
GDP growth during much of the Chavez era was astronomically high, they were beating China some years in terms of growth rate.

Also, pre-1998, the percentage under the poverty line was 53% of the population, and inflation was hitting 100% per annum. Average inflation was about 1/3rd during Chavez as it was in the decade before him. While there are still problems, the fallacy is to compare that to a first-world nation, and to omit what it was actually like before Chavez. The structural issues facing Maduro are in fact the same structural issues that were in place before Chavez ever hit the scene.

They just omit the context completely. Google "Venezuela drought" and you'll see they've been in drought for 4+ years now. The country's electric grid is hydro-based. So they had power cuts because of the drought. The western media then writes that the power cuts are "because socialism!" which is treating you, the reader, like a complete moron.

It's also always been a country dependent on the oil price, and you can google oil price charts, and see that the economic crisis just happens to line up with both an extended slump in interational oil prices, along with the protracted drought, which has caused local agricultural output to plummet. So, they can't grow food, they can't import food. But all the context is omitted:

(https://snbchf.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/ABOOK-Feb-2017-Oil-Prices-WTI.png)

The drought began in 2013, then the international oil price crashed by half around the end of 2014. Oil makes up 96% of Venezuelan export revenue, and 50% of total GDP. And that halved in 2014.

Writers who say "look what Socialism did" are basically treating you like a complete idiot. e.g. if "being a socialist" makes you unable to grow farm crops, then where are the collective farms? Venezuela doesn't have collective farms - farming is privatized like it's always been. There are a few co-ops and local collectives, but they're only a tiny proportion of the agricultural output of Venezuela, which grew faster during Chavez's time than it did before. Chavez used the oil money to help poor people, food consumption shot up as a result, and farm output doubled in the time Chavez was in charge, because of growth in demand.

Farm output then suddenly plummeted in 2013, the same year the drought began. Oh, but, yeah, it plummeted as a "inevitable result of socialism" and not "because of the drought".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 07:52:35 pm
I guess you can blame Saudi Arabia for it's woes because the initial price crash came from the fracking/oil sands boom, then looks like it started to recover, then right around there is when Saudi Arabia went rougue with OPEC in an attempt to destroy the competition happening in America.

So, yeah, looks like the primary blame is being a mono-product economy (I know there's an actual term, but I forget what it is) and the supposedly reliable oil prices ended up being not so reliable. Unfortunately, from what I've heard, Maduro seems to be doubling down on it rather than diverstifying.

Also sounds like they may have burnt themselves out with unsustainably high growth?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 07:57:54 pm
Maduro gets flack for not investing more in oil from the international media. But they also blame him for the economy being too oil-dependent. Basically, you can't read anything into that because they've set up a damned if you do / damned if you don't narrative. It's therefore completely speculative.

To put the oil price issue in perspective, oil revenues makes up 50% of GDP. And the price halved. That means they had a near-instantaneous drop of 25% of GDP.

How could you actually blame someone's domestic policies for "causing a recession" in those circumstances? Scale-wise it's equivalent to almost $5 trillion being wiped off the GDP of the USA.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 08:05:41 pm
I meant more in the 'breeze from a butterflys wings creates a thunderstorm' kind of way, unless you meant 'domestic policies' as in Maduro's domestic policies and not Saudi Arabia's.

In that specific circumstance, yes, I agree, it was absolutely out of Venezuela's control.

Given that hindsight is 20/20, I'm sure there are things that could have been done that didn't make things worse after the recession (more like a Great Depression by now for Venezuelans) started.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Teneb on January 31, 2018, 08:06:59 pm
Maduro gets flack for not investing more in oil from the international media. But they also blame him for the economy being too oil-dependent. Basically, you can't read anything into that because they've set up a damned if you do / damned if you don't narrative. It's therefore completely speculative.

To put the oil price issue in perspective, oil revenues makes up 50% of GDP. And the price halved. That means they had a near-instananeous drop of 25% of GDP.

How could you actually blame someone's domestic policies for "causing a recession" in those circumstances? Scale-wise it's equivalent to almost $5 trillion being wiped off the GDP of the USA.
Maduro gets flack for not investing more in oil from the international media. But they also blame him for the economy being too oil-dependent. Basically, you can't read anything into that because they've set up a damned if you do / damned if you don't narrative. It's therefore completely speculative.

To put the oil price issue in perspective, oil revenues makes up 50% of GDP. And the price halved. That means they had a near-instananeous drop of 25% of GDP.

How could you actually blame someone's domestic policies for "causing a recession" in those circumstances? Scale-wise it's equivalent to almost $5 trillion being wiped off the GDP of the USA.
Well, obviously it was all his and Chavez's fault for being such socialist wretches! If only Venezuela was in the hands of right-thinking captains of industry, this would never have happened! /s

On a less snarky note, it's basically a whole host of issues fucking over Venezuela. Maduro, who is midly incompetent. A massive drought. Oligarchs smelling blood on the water and leveraging foreign midia towards their ends. Saudis fucking with oil prices. Militaries masturbating to memories of Plan Condor. It kind of adds up.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 08:12:30 pm
Given that hindsight is 20/20, I'm sure there are things that could have been done that didn't make things worse after the recession (more like a Great Depression by now for Venezuelans) started.

The big one was a tactical mistake: using price controls. Price controls are a mistake because they just try and paper over the reason inflation is happening, which is that demand is outstripping supply.

e.g. there's a shortage so the price rises, so you make shops sell the good for a set price. Now, if that price falls below cost, the shop decides not to sell the item at all, which means you get empty shelves, even though there isn't actually a shortage, per se. However, if they sell the item at your set price, then it sells out too quickly, and a secondary black market forms. Then, people start hoarding for profit and not just stocking up for themselves, causing further price inflation.

Price controls aren't workable because they just force private sellers to charge a specific price that has nothing to do with the reality of the supply situation. What you really want to do is to make sure that each person has access to a basic amount of food without completely going broke. e.g. something like a UBI / food stamps program would be much more sensible.

Well they do have one real alternative to inflation, and that's to make a gold-backed currency to pay people with. But then you have a different problem, when the inflow of foreign currency drops, then you get deflation since there aren't enough customers with cash to buy the goods.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 08:26:20 pm
Not sure why they haven't taken the price controls off already given the massive unstoppable hyperinflation, other than corrupt politicians wanting to remain in power or keep the status quo, and Maduro being mildly incompetent.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 08:27:22 pm
Probably the same reasons nobody's been able to remove the gasoline subsidy in decades.

Also, the US analysis on the matter is a joke:

(https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/Blog/2018/January/BlogImage_VenezuelaInflation_012218.png?la=en)

4500% inflation in the next couple of years? While they could be right, the IMF also has a history of making inflation estimates for Venezuela which are massively out of line with what actually happens. Even The Cato Institute has called them out on being full of shit on the Venezuela doom and gloom, and Cato is no friend of Venezuela. e.g. an IMF report in 2008 claimed that Venezuelan inflation would spiral completely out of control over the next few years, but it actually ended up going down instead. It didn't even rise at all in 2009 let alone keep going up. Also the IMF figures in that report for Venezuela looked suspect: they were all rounded to zeros at three decimal places, whereas all other nations in the report had detailed figures to three decimal places.

So, after that 2008 report, I just assume the IMF is making shit up as they go along, and isn't actually doing any analysis. Basically, they write complete bunk that's riddled with executive meddling instead of any numerical analysis.

https://www.cato.org/blog/results-are-imfs-venezuela-inflation-guesstimate-was-way
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 08:42:15 pm
I thought the IMF was an European organization, not an American one. Also, has that amount of projected inflation with that speed ever actually happened in history? Like ever? I know Germany had problems after WWII (or was it WWI?) with their money becoming practically useless for a time, but I don't know the specifics behind that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: thvaz on January 31, 2018, 08:48:43 pm
So I was being fooled all this time by the evil media! Venezuela is in fact a socialist paradise and Chavez is a saint! 

Oh no guys, it is just some dictatorship apologist and would be historical revisionist.

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 08:50:25 pm
The IMF is based in Washington DC.

If you read up about them, they're basically a cold-war front organization for USA and Britain, that tries to get countries to abolish sovereignty and let multinational corporations buy up everything in your nation.

IMF "loans" always come with strings attached, like forcing you to privatize the water and hospitals and stuff. They're basically a front for right-wing neoliberal multinationals to get access to poor country's wealth.

Oh no guys, it is just some dictatorship apologist

They have elections, and those elections have international monitors. Other parties run for office, and win governorship, have mayors, senators etc. That's not a dictatorship. There are multiple parties and private media that aren't pro-government. If you have state governors who aren't from the presidents party, then that really does go against the idea that it's a dictatorship any more than Trump + Republicans are a dictatorship.

Which part is a dictatorship?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 08:53:02 pm
Right-wing and NeoLiberal are two things that I don't think would ever go together.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: thvaz on January 31, 2018, 09:01:54 pm
The IMF is based in Washington DC.

If you read up about them, they're basically a cold-war front organization for USA and Britain, that tries to get countries to abolish sovereignty and let multinational corporations buy up everything in your nation.

IMF "loans" always come with strings attached, like forcing you to privatize the water and hospitals and stuff. They're basically a front for right-wing neoliberal multinationals to get access to poor country's wealth.

Oh no guys, it is just some dictatorship apologist

They have elections, and those elections have international monitors. Other parties run for office, and win governorships, have mayors, senators etc. That's not a dictatorship. There are multiple parties and private media that aren't pro-government. Which part is a dictatorship?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/30/fear-of-violence-hangs-over-venezuela-assembly-election
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/17/venezuela-nicolas-maduro-dictatorship-elections-jeremy-corbyn

about Venezuela inflation:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-inflation/venezuela-2017-annual-inflation-at-2616-percent-opposition-lawmakers-idUSKBN1EX23B
 
about the government respecting private bussiness:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31178692
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/business/venezuela-general-motors-business-protests.html

Just some examples after a minute of googling.






Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on January 31, 2018, 09:15:22 pm
Russia still has elections, but they're effectively a dictatorship. What a dictatorship looks like these days looks different from the more iron fisted no-elections-at all dictatorships. The term that's all the rage these days for the greyer areas between full on ironfisted dictatorship and liberal democracy is 'illiberal democracy'.

As for the respecting private corporations, it doesn't give the Venezuela goverments side of it for GM, just GM complaining. The one with the supermarket may be lacking further context and information.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on January 31, 2018, 09:50:44 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/aug/18/neoliberalism-the-idea-that-changed-the-world

Quote
The paper gently called out a “neoliberal agenda” for pushing deregulation on economies around the world, for forcing open national markets to trade and capital, and for demanding that governments shrink themselves via austerity or privatisation. The authors cited statistical evidence for the spread of neoliberal policies since 1980, and their correlation with anaemic growth, boom-and-bust cycles and inequality.

Basically, what they're describing is the classic IMF loan requirements. And it's found that these requirements don't actually lead to growth, and destabilize economies. What they do however is create investment opportunities for the wealthy nations. And when it fails, as it often does, then the IMF does a "bailout" by which western taxpayer's money is paid out to the creditors of the failed loan-recipient. e.g. the bail-out money actually goes to the wealthy western investors who benefited from the IMF's enforced deregulation / privatization. It means that the taxpayer pays for all of this, wealthy investors get to invest and make a profit, and if you don't make a profit, then the taxpayer covers your losses. It's a "win-win". For the rich person ... and the IMF director, who then gets a job with your bank afterwards.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/30/fear-of-violence-hangs-over-venezuela-assembly-election

But even in that article, it says the opposition are firing guns and explosives:

Quote
the prosecutor’s office confirmed at least six people were killed by gunfire, including one national guardsman. Seven policemen were wounded in an explosion in the opposition stronghold neighbourhood of Altamira.

So ... the opposition are also terrorists, according to your first article. At least one national guard member was shot, and we can't really tell from this which side the other 6 were even on (there have been shootings of pro-government people at rallies too. or of innocent bystanders trying to avoid opposition street barricades).

As for the 2014 protest deaths, there are breakdowns of the details of each death, many more were attributed to the protestors than to authorities:

https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13081
https://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Heres-Your-Guide-to-Understanding-Protest-Deaths-in-Venezuela-20170422-0016.html
e.g. one of the deaths claimed was that of an 83 year old woman who needed an ambulance but couldn't get to hospital because of the protests. She's counted as being Maduro's fault, as are people who weren't even in protests, or were shot by right-wing opposition supporters when they were attending pro-socialist rallies. Tons of people seem to have been randomly shot while trying to avoid pro-opposition roadblocks, while there are basically no examples of the people manning the opposition roadblocks being shot at. the article I linked has names, details and locations for all the victims, so you can in fact google the names to get more details. Basically the other side has details here that you can read and go and fact-check, while the opposition only wants to vaguely hint at deaths and claim that only the other guy is doing it. The opposition is shooting people then adding up the bodies and saying "look what Maduro did!". It really doesn't help their case.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy-inflation/venezuela-2017-annual-inflation-at-2616-percent-opposition-lawmakers-idUSKBN1EX23B
Quote
Hundreds of people mobbed some supermarkets on Saturday after authorities promised price cuts.

How is this different to America then? People stomp each other's heads in to get the Black Friday specials.

This one you link:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-31178692

Quote
Venezuela's economy has been heavily affected by the drop in oil prices.

Which is a rare article where they let some reality seep through the "socialism did it!" facade.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/20/business/venezuela-general-motors-business-protests.html
They took over the plant. However, the plant had already been closed down, it's similar with a bunch of the other ones in the article.

Another key metric is looking at how much the country actually consumes. Beef is a good metric. In 1998, Venezuelans consumed 415,000 tons of beef. That grew to 590,000 tons of beef in 2015, when the food crisis was supposed to be really hitting.

http://beef2live.com/story-venezuela-beef-production-imports-consumption-1960-2015-0-120921
Venezuela consumed about the same amount of beef per person as Singapore in 2016:
http://beef2live.com/story-world-beef-consumption-per-capita-ranking-countries-0-111634

There are a ton of articles claiming the extent of the crisis is exaggerated, and they don't come from Venezuela:
https://www.thenation.com/article/how-severe-is-venezuelas-crisis/
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2013/11/venezuela-crisis-20131129123811227680.html
https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13478
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: IronyOwl on January 31, 2018, 10:15:23 pm
Also, has that amount of projected inflation with that speed ever actually happened in history? Like ever? I know Germany had problems after WWII (or was it WWI?) with their money becoming practically useless for a time, but I don't know the specifics behind that.
A quick check of Wikipedia suggests it's very rare but not unheard of. The tricky part is that when things get that bad, they usually spiral completely out of control, as with the Weimar Republic's 30,000% inflation rate after WWI or the absurd fiasco with Zimbabwe trying to print their troubles away. Hitting and then staying at 4500% inflation over a few years would be oddly balanced between catastrophe and restraint.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: redwallzyl on February 01, 2018, 07:54:18 am
Right-wing and NeoLiberal are two things that I don't think would ever go together.
they go together all the time. Especially in the US. The Republicans are neoliberal incarnate.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Doomblade187 on February 01, 2018, 04:45:30 pm
A reminder that we have a forum member from Venezuela. From what we've heard (sad thread): It's not good down there, and there are food and economic troubles causing major strain. Apparently some stores require you to be a member of the ruling party, as well.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on February 04, 2018, 01:16:37 pm
Interesting news. Last monday, the Venezuelan government announced that it would scrap currency controls in favor of an exchange with floating values. By Friday, the local currency had gained 11% vs the USD. This backs up the idea I've mentioned that the price controls are one of the primary mechanisms to blame for the inflation.

https://www.ft.com/content/26d539d0-076d-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

Under the previous system, the government was trying to make imports cheaper by offering USD's from oil at preferential rates (e.g. as low as 10 bolivars to the USD if you said you were importing vital medicines). So they were selling USDs cheap. People were then buying the discounting USDs, but corruption was rampant. Instead of buying medicine, they'd sell the USDs on the black market for e.g. 100's of times what they paid for them. But they're scrapping that, and already it looks like the price of USDs in Venezuela is coming back down, because hoarders / speculators have started to sell off their stockpiles of USD purchased as the discounted rates.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the weeks after this, whether it sustains that direction or is just a hiccup. If my hunch is right that the people getting the discounted USDs have been heavily hoarding them to exploit the situation, and the price of bolivars continues to appreciate, then there could be an even bigger sell-off of the hoarded USD currencies.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Sheb on February 05, 2018, 11:46:58 am
Could you copy-paste that article in a spoiler? It sounds interesting, but is behind a paywall.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on February 05, 2018, 12:03:52 pm
Somehow it wasn't paywalled when I read it, but it is now, so i can't. EDIT: after refreshing the page a few times, somehow the paywall isn't there now ... ?

Here's a Reuters article about the decision:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/venezuela-eliminates-heavily-subsidized-dipro-forex-rate-idUSKBN1FJ040
Venezuela Analysis
https://venezuelanalysis.com/News/13630

And the text of the Financial Times one
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

One thing, is that I'm not sure I'd trust the black market value of dollars in Venezuela is a valid metric of the current inflation rate. Normally, you look at the consumer price index and see if that went up. But nobody is measuring inflation for Venezuela based on price increases, they're all looking at the black market rate for US dollars.

The flaw with that logic is that black market dollars are a fairly finite resource in Venezuela (due to the currency controls), and even with moderate underlying inflation, you could convert into dollars, wait a bit, then cash back out for more than you paid. e.g. it would be treated more like Bitcoin rather than an actual currency. In that situation, you really don't care how much each dollar costs, only that they are going up in price. And those dollars are going to leave circulation faster than they enter it, leading to further scarcity, but that just pushes the price higher and makes them more attractive as an investment/hedging strategy, causing people to hoard them more. Therefore, black market dollars could be an asset bubble in Venezuela. Then, trying to glean much of anything about inflation from the price of the dollars would be akin to trying to estimate the global inflation rate from the Bitcoin price.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Sheb on February 06, 2018, 03:22:17 am
Kinda funny/sad that they seems to be starting to issue their "petro" tokens just as the cryptocurrency market is crashing with bitcoin down to 6000 dollars now.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on February 06, 2018, 08:34:17 am
Petros are tied to the price of oil, 1 petrol is 1 bbl. But of course, it remains to be seen whether they come good on that. But if they do, then at some future point you can cash in a petro for 1 bbl of oil's price, then the price will rebound even if it sinks in the middle. With bitcoin crashing then Petros might actually sell.

Just googled the petro, and Maduro is trying to get OPEC interested in making a common mechanism for oil-backed crypto-coins.

https://www.rt.com/business/417971-maduro-opec-cryptocurrency-mechanism/
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on February 06, 2018, 09:42:10 am
Wouldn’t linking it to oil be even worse than linking to gold? Given how much more variable it gets. Also, I thought the point of cryptocurrencies was to not have it be backed by any commodity or otherwise be hoarded into banks.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Reelya on February 16, 2018, 06:15:33 pm
I've been keeping an eye on the exchange rate in Venezuela via here https://dolartoday.com/ they have an excel spreadsheet you can download of the black market prices.

The main story here is that black market prices (of USD) were skyrocketing daily until 25th January, which is the same day that they opened the legal public currency exchange. After than, the black market price stalled, fell a bit, and has been stable ever since, so at the rate things are going, they're going to have ~zero% change in the black market price for USD for the entire month of February.

The floating price on the public exchanges immediately knocked 75% off the price of USD compared to the black market, taking the price back about 4 months: which is a lot of money in a hyperinflation scenario. This backs up what I was saying about price controls (currency controls in this case) being a primary cause of the inflation that they're intended to combat.

Liberalizing the situation even a little changed the situation completely, so now the black market sellers had a slump in the price of black market USDs on their hands, which then stabilized at a lower price, probably because of the big sellers agreeing to reduce the amount they're selling.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on February 16, 2018, 06:42:30 pm
Maybe not so much 'liberalizing' than 'being sensible'.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: redwallzyl on February 16, 2018, 06:53:00 pm
Maybe not so much 'liberalizing' than 'being sensible'.
Hopefully so, much to often liberalizing seems to mean neoliberalizing which does the opposite of help.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on February 16, 2018, 06:59:15 pm
Not to mention that the Maduro government is left wing, so, them 'liberalizing' doesn't make sense because it just goes harder core left wing in that direction. Plus, I'm not sure theres any actual ideological bent with price controls, which are just an economic tool, not an economic theory.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: smjjames on March 06, 2018, 11:04:24 am
The situation in Venezuela has gotten so bad that the exodus from Venezuela is starting to look like the refugee wave from Syria in 2015. (https://www.axios.com/the-new-migrant-crisis-is-in-south-america-1520289190-47e8f298-402d-475b-9d2b-9849ac7c7da1.html) That said, I hope that one forum member (I forget his name offhand) and his family are doing okay and perhaps have gotten out of there. Last I heard (which was at least a month or two ago) he was looking for a way to get out of Venezuela that was at least legal.

It seems long past time for the other countries in South America to stage an intervention (and I don't neccesarily mean militarily). I'm sure the US could help if asked, though South American countries would probably rather we stay out of it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: martinuzz on March 14, 2018, 05:13:07 am
The UN World Food Program's director is ringing the alarm bells about the situation in Venezuela.
"I don't think the world realizes how serious this situation is," he says. "This could grow to become the single largest disaster the western hemisphere has ever seen".

The past few years, millions of Venezuelans have fled their country. Inflation was 6000% last year, and food and medicine have become unaffordable for part of the population.

A recent study by Venezuelan universities has shown that 87% of the population is living in poverty, and people lost 11 kg body weight on average, last year.

The UN refugee council pleads that countries should allow Venezuelans access to official refugee procedures (instead of regarding them as economic migrants).
"Considering the dangerous situation in Venezuala, it is important that they are not deported back to Venezuela,"says Aikaterini Kitidi, spokesperson for the UN.

Meanwhile, neighboring countries that have welcomed the refugees, are now restricting access, because they cannot cope with the influx anymore.
Even Colombia, which has a special relation with Venezuela, because that country accepted millions of Colombian refugees in the 1970s, has made stricter rules.
Venezuelan refugees can no longer easily get a work permit, and Venezuelan refugees now need to be able to show a passport at the border to be allowed in, instead of just an ID card.

Despite stricter rules, every day, tens of thousands of Venezuelans crowd the bridge connecting Venezuela to Colombia, hoping to get out. Many sleep in the street to try again the next day, woman are selling their hairs to be used in the wig industry, and children beg for money, eat from garbage, and sell their body.

According to the Colombian civic registry, 800 thousand Venezuelans entered Colombia last year, and the flood of refugees is not waning.
Hospitals in the border regions are overcrowded and can't accept new patients.

Criminal organisations make good use of the desperate. Women and children end up in prostitution, and men are recruited into criminal gangs.
According to the Colombian human rights organisation Progresar, the vast majority of members of criminal organisations are now Venezuelans.

World Food Program director Beasley calls upon the world to donate money to Colombia, so they can provide food and shelter for the refugees.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Troskyist Comintern 2018
Post by: Teneb on March 15, 2018, 11:36:44 am
The UN refugee council pleads that countries should allow Venezuelans access to official refugee procedures (instead of regarding them as economic migrants).
Brazil already considers them to be refugees. Hell, there are cities in Roraima (state with the most accessible (by virtue of there being towns at it instead of endless expanses of death-jungles) Venezuelan border) where half the population is Venezuelan. Also entire populations of amerindians are also migrating south while plagued by STDs because they got fucked by pretty much every person in power up north. No such thing as restricting access to our territory as far as I could find.

World Food Program director Beasley calls upon the world to donate money to Colombia, so they can provide food and shelter for the refugees.
Fuck this, though. The refugees won't see a single cent of that money being used for their benefit if countries are stupid enough to hand free cash to Colombia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: smjjames on March 15, 2018, 11:39:41 am
Why don't the other countries in South America stage some kind of intervention? I'd get it if Colombia doesn't due to their past with Venezuela, but still.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Teneb on March 15, 2018, 11:45:47 am
Why don't the other countries in South America stage some kind of intervention? I'd get it if Colombia doesn't due to their past with Venezuela, but still.
Pretty much only Colombia, Brazil and Argentina have the means to do so, and Colombia only barely. As you said yourself, Colombia and Venezuela do not get along; them intervening would likely be even worse. Argentina is too far away. Brasil, meanwhile? Well, we are not only stuck with literally the least popular leader we've ever had (Temer), who is less popular than the military dictators were right after said dictatorship ended, but we're also on the eve of what is likely to be the most cuthroat and heated election we've ever had. I'm actually going to be posting a lot about it as soon as all candidates are 100% confirmed, because right now things can shift and some are still stepping forth.

To be quite cynically honest, I only expect something to happen if oil stops flowing out of Venezuela.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: martinuzz on March 15, 2018, 01:32:13 pm
but we're also on the eve of what is likely to be the most cuthroat and heated election we've ever had.
Shit, no kidding. Marielle Franco, city councillor of Rio de Janeiro, politician human rights activist, and feminist was shot dead in the streets yesterday.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: smjjames on March 15, 2018, 01:45:50 pm
Why don't the other countries in South America stage some kind of intervention? I'd get it if Colombia doesn't due to their past with Venezuela, but still.
Pretty much only Colombia, Brazil and Argentina have the means to do so, and Colombia only barely. As you said yourself, Colombia and Venezuela do not get along; them intervening would likely be even worse. Argentina is too far away. Brasil, meanwhile? Well, we are not only stuck with literally the least popular leader we've ever had (Temer), who is less popular than the military dictators were right after said dictatorship ended, but we're also on the eve of what is likely to be the most cuthroat and heated election we've ever had. I'm actually going to be posting a lot about it as soon as all candidates are 100% confirmed, because right now things can shift and some are still stepping forth.

To be quite cynically honest, I only expect something to happen if oil stops flowing out of Venezuela.

And if the US didn't have a history of treating South America as our personal backyard and stomping grounds, we might be able to. Then again, our track record of intervention isn't that bright.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Teneb on March 15, 2018, 01:51:06 pm
but we're also on the eve of what is likely to be the most cuthroat and heated election we've ever had.
Shit, no kidding. Marielle Franco, city councillor of Rio de Janeiro, politician human rights activist, and feminist was shot dead in the streets yesterday.
Yeah. Likely a militia reprisal, considering she was big against those.

For the uninformed, while the word militia does have the same meaning in both english and portuguese, in the context of organized crime it takes a different form. It means a paramilitary organisation made up of corrupt cops, ex-cops, ex-soldiers, mercenaries and the odd hitman. While they do make money off drugs, it is not their main focus, relying instead of extortion and protection rackets. Another difference is that smuggler factions use masses of armed addicts and thieves as their "troops", while miltia troops are fewer in number, but make up for it in training and equipment.

Marielle's assassination, according to the police, was preceded by her car being stalked by another for 4km before the assailants' car lined up with hers, opened fire, and sped away. Much like a stereotypical mafia hit, instead of the flashy and public killings favoured by smugglers.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Egan_BW on March 15, 2018, 04:54:08 pm
Does that not qualify as "flashy and public"?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Teneb on March 15, 2018, 05:06:23 pm
Does that not qualify as "flashy and public"?
The aftermath? Sure. But it was a quick and pragmatic hit, not drawn out.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: thvaz on March 16, 2018, 07:00:35 pm
but we're also on the eve of what is likely to be the most cuthroat and heated election we've ever had.
Shit, no kidding. Marielle Franco, city councillor of Rio de Janeiro, politician human rights activist, and feminist was shot dead in the streets yesterday.

So far nothing indicates it has anything to do with our heated political debates. As Teneb later said, it is most likely she was killed by militias she was constantly complaining about.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Magistrum on March 17, 2018, 07:01:14 pm
Brazilian here, can confirm that the most common notion (at least in circles where people follow news not from facebook) is that she was assassinated by a member of the PMERJ (Military Police of Rio de Janeiro). It is well known that the PMERJ has organized crime between it's ranks, and the famous movie "Tropa de Elite" is inspired in that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: martinuzz on April 22, 2018, 02:03:52 am
In Nicaragua, protests against censorship and oppression are spiraling out of control.
For days, there have been mass protests in various cities. At least 10 people have been killed already, and hundreds are wounded.

And now Ortega has decided to deploy the army to Esteli to crush the protests. More deaths expected to follow.

It's almost like South-America is having it's own Arab spring. Let's hope IS doesn't take advantage and settles somewhere where it has a land connection to the US.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Kagus on April 22, 2018, 05:20:10 am
It's almost like South-America is having it's own Arab spring. Let's hope IS doesn't take advantage and settles somewhere where it has a land connection to the US.

Somehow I kinda doubt that they'd get much of a foothold amidst all the Catholics. Might be entertaining to watch them try though... Can you imagine some mullah trying to put the hijab on a stereotypical Latina?

That said, economic and social destabilization tends to have an effect on people's faith, whether strengthening or weakening. All the same, I don't see enough big Muslim religious support happening to allow for the kind of fundamental fanaticism that IS requires to function.


I've been trying a little bit to keep up with what's going on in Venezuela, but the major Yurpean news outlets don't seem particularly interested in covering South America. Not when Meghan Markle is wearing things (although the alternative would likely generate even more attention, so eh).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 22, 2018, 05:40:04 am
There's also the big deal that direct intervention in Venezuela because of the failing situation there would justify other nations to have intervened in e.g. Colombia during the Uribe administration when there were cases of mass-killings of peasants, human rights group, and basically kidnapped teenagers who were dressed up as guerillas after their executions - by the state security forces. Recent estimates are that around 6000 people (https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/colombian-army-killed-innocent-civilians-to-boost-rebel-body-count/) were murdered by Colombian army units, so they could be dressed up as rebels, so that officers could gain promotions and monetary bonuses. And this only covers the period 2002-2008, when Uribe came to power, and implicated everyone personally right up to the head of the entire armed forces of Colombia, who had gain promotions by personally commanding these actions:

Quote
There is mounting evidence that many senior army officers bear responsibility. Yet the army officials in charge at the time of the killings have escaped justice and even ascended to the top of the military command, including the current heads of the army and armed forces, according to Vivanco.

It stands to reason that the right-wing leaders in Colombia don't want to set a precedent of military intervention in each other's affairs. Because if it comes down to setting standards which justify intervention then the Colombians would have a very difficult time creating objective standards that justify intervention in Venezuela but somehow don't justify other nation's giving a shit about what happens in Colombia, and the fact that people responsible for ordering mass-killings of civilians so they could boost "combat" reports of victories are still in command positions in their armed forces.

Colombia has a large number of current senior people involved in serious warcrimes and various human rights abuses - really too long to catalog, but for instance the case in which Colombian journalist Claudia Duque who was investigating the murder of another journalist, received death threats against her and her family, asked for protection, received "protection" from the department of security (DAS), but then the death threats were traced back to a training manual FROM the department of security - with her contact details pasted on the front, which later fell into the hands of the attorney general's office. The head of the DAS was later arrested for ordering the murder of the original journalist.
https://pbicolombia.org/accompanied-organisations/claudia-julieta-duque/
Note, that she's recently won a case against the DAS agents involved, and one related case is a defamation case against President Uribe himself, for personally linking her to FARC. So, you have journalists investigating abuses, and the attempts to derail the free press go right to the president himself. And this is just one example of similar cases where Uribe himself was accused of trying to defame people who were receiving death threats from Neo-Nazi type paramilitary groups. So, Uribe's family had known links to death squads, and Uribe himself is on TV - repeatedly - trying to blacken the names of death squad targets. Maduro is just "Mini-me" to Uribe's "Dr Evil".

The last thing Colombia would ever want to do is create a precedent where other nations hold each other accountable.

Here's a good overview of the Uribe issues from the UNHCR:
http://www.refworld.org/docid/4dec82db2.html
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Maduro has made a right mess of things, but ... Uribe is on a whole other level of evil.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Dorsidwarf on April 22, 2018, 06:34:37 am
but venezuela has the communism everyone knows thats the evilest thing of all
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: martinuzz on April 23, 2018, 02:13:52 am
After 11 dead (according to the government, or 25 dead and 43 disappeared, according to human rights organisations), Nicaraguan president Ortega has given in to the demands of the protestors, and scrapped the new proposed laws to decrease pensions and social support funding.

The riots started when retired elderly took to the streets to protest the announced pension cuts, and were soon joined by students, and labour union members.
The government repsonded with teargas, rubber bullets, and real bullets including snipers.
Yesterday, a reporter was shot dead while livestreaming, further increasing tension.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 12:21:37 am
idk about the snipers thing. Similar incidents have occurred in other nations and turned out to be right-wing elements trying to discredit left-wing leaders. People in power don't need to use snipers in these situations since they control the defense forces directly. You use snipers when you want to obscure what actually happened from the chain of command.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Makes me think of the Honduras situation
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: smjjames on April 24, 2018, 01:59:02 am
I’d have expected that from FOX, but to have generally center left publications saying that seems surprising to me.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 02:29:16 am
BBC isn't center-left. It's "establishment" England. Remember it's entirely government-owned with a government appointed administration. Sure, there's some flexibility in viewpoints, but that reflects the diversity in viewpoints of the e.g. Oxford/Cambridge elite of England.

It gets amusing sometimes. For example, the one story that started making me skeptical of BBC coverage was the Nepal / Maoist story.

I was following the Nepal "maoist" story for a few years back before the elections (2008?), and the BBC coverage was fairly constant, and where I was getting my news at the time. It was pretty consistently "maoists bad" "everyones hates maoists" "nepalese scared of maoists". Then, there were the first free elections, with the Maoists winning by a landslide, and how does the BBC characterize it? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7348049.stm)

Quote
As the Maoists surge towards victory ...  There are many ways to interpret what is going on. ... the Nepali electorate ... cannily thought of a way to prevent the former rebels going back to conflict.

Oh right, so there are "many ways" to interpret the Maoist's landslide victory. But "people are supporters of the Maoists" isn't one of them. Everyone apparently conspired with a "nudge nudge wink wink" strategy to stop the Maoists by electing them.

Then, in a typical bit of BBC coverage, when the Maoists didn't win an election they were suddenly newsworthy again after several years of zero coverage: 2013 story "Why Nepal rejected Maoists (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-25051176)". Hang on, where were your reporters when Nepal wasn't rejecting the Maoists?

What they somehow manage to avoid saying is who actually won this election. The headline and article merely implies that Nepal rejected Maoists, and therefore communism. In fact, the big winners were the Nepali Congress party, who are members of the Socialist International, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist). e.g. both fairly "commie" parties won - replacing the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre). The BBC decided for you that these weren't things you needed to know, you just needed to know that Nepal "rejected Maoists". However, when the Maoists beat those same parties, the BBC decided to make it clear that the beaten parties were also commies.

The point here isn't about whether such parties are good, it's just showcasing that the BBC are untrustworthy commentators, who frame stories according to a pre-planned narrative, omitting important details from stories, or entirely failing to report on major events, if they don't fit the narrative.

This last point is also relevant to e.g. coverage of Venezuela. Almost all the opposition parties to Maduro are also members of Socialist International, which puts them further left than any party in the US and UK, with the single exception of the UK's Social Democratic and Labour Party. Basically, when one socialist party loses to another socialist party, the right-wing corporate media hails it as a rejection of socialism, while conveniently omitting to mention who actually won.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Sheb on April 24, 2018, 03:40:07 am
This last point is also relevant to e.g. coverage of Venezuela. Almost all the opposition parties to Maduro are also members of Socialist International, which puts them further left than any party in the US and UK, with the single exception of the UK's Social Democratic and Labour Party. Basically, when one socialist party loses to another socialist party, the right-wing corporate media hails it as a rejection of socialism, while conveniently omitting to mention who actually won.

To be fair, most of the western centre-left parties are or were until a couple years ago members of the Socialist international. Labour was in there until 2013. It's not the single most radical of grouping.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: martinuzz on April 24, 2018, 03:45:28 am
Indeed, nothing radical about Socialist International, they're just a normal political organisation for European standards, except they're not national but supra-national.
Dutch SP (Socialist) is also a member of the SI, as is or was the PvdA (Labour). Not sure about Groen Links (Greens), I do believe that at least their youth league also has affinity with SI.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 03:47:15 am
That's scary far left according to American standards, especially the supra-national thing. Alex Jones would have a few words to say about the Socialist International.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: martinuzz on April 24, 2018, 03:48:25 am
Don't get me wrong, they stopped striving for an international socialist state decades ago. It's just an organization that facilitates debate and sharing of knowledge and experience between the various left parties in the world. Not sure what would be 'scary' about that.

Tbh, it says more about how scary anti-everything-that-rhymes-with-social the US is.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Doomblade187 on April 24, 2018, 03:52:49 am
SOCIAL CLUBS!? WHERE!?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 03:55:53 am
that's not really my main point, i can surmise it like this:

I'm assessing this from the viewpoint of the English-speaking media world, not world standards. BBC, FOX, nytimes are all flavours of corporate establishment propaganda aimed at the Anglo / English-speaking elite audiences in USA/UK. It's "international" in the sense that the English speaking Anglo elite matter, and you weird garlicly smelling non-english speaking people really don't. no offense meant.

The English-speaking press covers things with an inherent bias that if a left-wing (by Anglo standards) party loses, it's inferred that a "sensible" center-right-wing party won. e.g. people in UK/USA/Australia interpret these things according to "Anglo" political norms which are firmly a two-party "center left/center right" affair. The media then frames these international issues as if they are within that framework without giving adequate context to really understand the issues.

making the point about "socialist international" membership is not to make any claims about what SI is, it's just to point out that the English speaking media isn't giving people enough information to understand issues, pretty much deliberately.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Kagus on April 24, 2018, 04:02:18 am
SOCIAL CLUBS!? WHERE!?

Buena Vista, deep in the heartland of filthy communalism.

Also, Norway actually still has a full-blown communist party, simply titled "Red". This last parliamentary election was a big milestone for them, as it landed them their first-ever seat in parliament.

Moxnes, the leader of the party and now singular representative in parliament, has since spent his time launching petitions of "mistrust" against famously loudmouthed and incompetent politicians.

I don't necessarily agree with his rhetoric or his attempt at a beard, but I have to say I do love the firestorm he's been kicking up.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 04:17:50 am
On a related note, I note 31 dead (with more suspected) in Honduras after the elections in January. The military police are directly implicated in at least 21 deaths. Story from The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/02/us-silent-as-honduras-protesters-killed-in-post-election-violence

Note, that the BBC story three weeks later (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/honduras-protests-demonstrators-tear-gas-deadly-violence-juan-orlando-hernandez-salvador-nasralla-a8171066.html) has it's summary in Google as "Police fire tear gas at protesters across the country, with one death in the northern town of Saba."

Wow, the Guardian knows about accusations for 31+ deaths by military police, with live video footage, and multiple NGOs speaking out, morgue workers, hospital staff etc etc, yet all the BBC knows about is tear gas and one death? Three weeks after the Guardian article?

e.g. this kind of thing exemplifies how distorted coverage works. Since Honduras has a pro-Washington right-wing government, then the BBC omits any mention of government wrongdoing that you can't 100% prove, regardless of how much raw video footage there is detailing the attacks.

... Whereas I'm willing to bet that for e.g. left-wing Nicaragua, the same BBC includes all mentions of government wrongdoing that can't be 100% disproven. e.g. any claim becomes newsworthy, regardless of physical evidence, because somebody made the claim.

We can contrast that with the claims made about nicaragua:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-43860848

Quote
The protesters and some of the journalists covering the demonstration were set upon by men wearing motorcycle helmets who beat them with metal pipes and electric cables. Some local media said those beating up the protesters were part of pro-government gangs and were wearing T-shirts with pro-government slogans.

Yeah, so in Honduras you have armored squads firing automatic rifles against rock-throwing youths, whereas the case against Ortega in Nicaragua is that people with helmets and t-shirts with funny slogans were hitting people with makeshift clubs.

Is that actually a government conspiracy or is it just "Nicaraguan Antifa"? Because we know that almost identical scenes can be found in the USA, but we don't automatically jump to the conclusion that the nationally elected party leader is responsible.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 04:57:16 am
After 11 dead (according to the government, or 25 dead and 43 disappeared, according to human rights organisations), Nicaraguan president Ortega has given in to the demands of the protestors, and scrapped the new proposed laws to decrease pensions and social support funding.


this is also bullshit.

BBC:
Quote
The changes were aimed at boosting Nicaragua's troubled social security system, which has been running on a deficit.

Pensioners would have had to pay 5% of their pensions into a fund for medical expenses.

Employees would have had to contribute a larger chunk of their salary towards social security - 7% instead of the current 6.25%. And employers, too, would have had to pay more money into the social security pot.

There were no cuts to social spending, the change was to increase the amount saved into social security accounts. Where are you reading your sources martinuzz? A couple of times now I've noted you repeated some fairly right-wing sounding claims that don't match up with other sources.

e.g. pensions stayed the same, not decreased, but part of it would go into a medical fund. And a little more of wages, 0.75% would go into retirement savings. These are modest changes, of the type that provide the type of social security that places like e.g. the Netherlands take for granted.

it's completely misleading to characterize them as Ortega acting to "decrease pensions and social support funding."
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Egan_BW on April 24, 2018, 05:02:06 am
He never posts sources, so I can only assume that he's secretly an international journalist~
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Teneb on April 24, 2018, 05:03:42 am
I'm pretty sure Martinuzz works for a newspaper (volkskrant?), so... probably there?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 05:06:26 am
maybe it's the local equivalent of Daily Mail or something. Could translate as "folks ranting"

... j/k

However, it does sound like it's designed to play to the audience, somewhat. e.g. if you want to turn people against Ortega because business interests want you to, and you're talking to Dutch people, who enjoy a very strong social security system you accuse him of slashing social security ... somehow ... by what turns out, according to the BBC, to actually be a plan to increase the amount of money flowing into social security.

Similarly, the 5% of pensions that would flow into a medical fund kinda sucks because you don't have that money to spend straight away, however, when you get sick (as all pensioners will) you get better value for money because you're covered for medical insurance rather than floundering in the free market. By just calling it "cuts to pensions" that strikes home with the Dutch since the Netherlands have strong pension spending. But they also have universal health care, which is what Ortega's changes to pensions was intended to implement. So ... you just leave that detail out of the story completely and focus on the "less money to spend" part.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Sheb on April 24, 2018, 05:16:53 am
maybe it's the local equivalent of Daily Mail or something. Could translate as "folks ranting"

Krant is just dutch for "newspaper". It's one of the biggest mainstream papers in the Netherlands. Think NYTimes, not NYPost.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: The Many Deaths of Venezuela
Post by: martinuzz on April 24, 2018, 05:17:04 am
After 11 dead (according to the government, or 25 dead and 43 disappeared, according to human rights organisations), Nicaraguan president Ortega has given in to the demands of the protestors, and scrapped the new proposed laws to decrease pensions and social support funding.


this is also bullshit.

BBC:
Quote
The changes were aimed at boosting Nicaragua's troubled social security system, which has been running on a deficit.

Pensioners would have had to pay 5% of their pensions into a fund for medical expenses.

Employees would have had to contribute a larger chunk of their salary towards social security - 7% instead of the current 6.25%. And employers, too, would have had to pay more money into the social security pot.

There were no cuts to social spending, the change was to increase the amount saved into social security accounts. Where are you reading your sources martinez? A couple of times now I've noted you repeated some fairly right-wing sounding claims that don't match up with other sources. At least link your sources because making inflammatory claims but without the benefit of the actual links is damaging to having a free and fair debate of the issues.

e.g. pensions stayed the same, not decreased, but part of it would go into a medical fund. And a little more of wages, 0.75% would go into retirement savings. These are modest changes, of the type that provide the type of social security that places like e.g. the Netherlands take for granted.

it's completely misleading to characterize them as Ortega acting to "decrease pensions and social support funding."
https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/nicaragua-trekt-omstreden-wetgeving-in-na-grootste-rellen-in-jaren~a4595079/ (https://www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/nicaragua-trekt-omstreden-wetgeving-in-na-grootste-rellen-in-jaren~a4595079/)

How can you say that pensions stay the same? That's not how a pensionada will percieve it, when he gets less money to spend in his account than last month, because part was witheld for a medical fund. Nothing social about that either, making the old pay extra for medical funds. A social system should be based on solidarity, where the strong shoulders carry the weak.

Same for the increase in wage tax to fix a deficit in social spending. Would make sense if it was an income-related tax, but this way, the poor are affected disproportionally.
Fixing a deficit in social support spending by indiscriminately increasing worker taxes =/= boosting social support structures
Something can be said for increasing employer taxes. As long as you don't hurt business so much that they need to fire people or decrease wages, because then you're only making the group that needs social support larger.

Not sure what's rightwing about that, and de Volkskrant most definitly isn't a rightwing paper.

Krant is just dutch for "newspaper". It's one of the biggest mainstream papers in the Netherlands. Think NYTimes, not NYPost.
This. On the political right-left spectrum, they'd be the equivalent of the NYT. They even exchange guest columnists with the NYT regularily.

EDIT: I don't work for the Volkskrant, but it is my first news source of choice, for generally providing professional journalism.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 05:25:40 am
how are pensions paid for, if not by people paying into the scheme? It's the same with medical expenses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaraguan_Social_Security_Institute

In fact, if you look at the details, the fund has been predicted to completely run out of money in 2019, a trend anticipated even before Ortega was elected. Meaning: no more pensions at all.

In fact, the "good guys" of the IMF recently demanded that Ortega raise the age that you get the pension from 60 to 65. Ortega's proposed changes to the system were designed to prevent a large number of people losing 100% of their pensions, which is the IMF's proposal. Losing 5 years worth of pension would be a big cut. Assuming a life expectancy of 75 years, that would be losing 5 out of 15 years worth of pension, on average.

this way, 5% of pensions are "lost" to a medicare-type insurance scheme, but you get something for that money - medical coverage. And an extra 0.75% of wages are "lost" to retirement savings, but you're granted an extra 5 years of pension compared to the IMF's alternative proposal.

What's the alternative plan then? The opposition using "setting fire to things" as their proposal would seem to suggest that they don't actually have an alternative and just want to use this as an excuse to seize power. If they have a better solution, let them present it. Nope, you can bet that if they take power they'll enact the IMF proposal of raising the retirement age to 65, if not 70, while privatizing hospitals and slashing corporate taxes. e.g. like Honduras.

Quote
Same for the increase in wage tax to fix a deficit in social spending. Would make sense if it was an income-related tax, but this way, the poor are affected disproportionally. Fixing a deficit in social support spending by indiscriminately increasing worker taxes =/= boosting social support structures
Something can be said for increasing employer taxes. As long as you don't hurt business so much that they need to fire people or decrease wages, because then you're only making the group that needs social support larger.

This all seems contradictory and confused. you don't support cuts to spending, you don't support increases to taxes, what do you support then? When spending > taxes one or the other need to change.

And it's not "indiscriminately" increasing the costs. Someone with 10 times the incomes pays 10 times the additional taxes. However, both people earn the same pension. It's still a net transfer of wealth from rich to poor.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: martinuzz on April 24, 2018, 06:44:33 am
Depends on if the lowest income classes can actually 'afford' to lose income to taxation without falling below the poverty line and becoming dependant on social support structures, possibly negating any budgetary increase that was gained through taxation.
Paying someone 5 dollars wage is cheaper for society than providing someone with 5 dollar worth of social support.

I agree that 1% tax for a high income is still more than 1% tax for a low income on an absolute basis. It's just not the only thing that needs to be taken into account.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 07:02:08 am
there are reasons that sometimes organizations don't even want your labor for free. e.g. go around and offer to volunteer these days, and many places will reject your $0 labor, because they have to pay for overheads, training, safe work environment, liability insurance, etc etc. You could pay them for the prvilege, and they'd still reject your labor, because sometimes labor even has a negative value, e.g. conducting the action costs more than it produces.

Paying someone $5 to work isn't necessarily cheaper for society than giving them $5 to live on. Also, if they get that $5 for working then the worker has more expenses (all the expenses in travel, getting ready to work, additional hygiene and clothes cleaning) as well as the nation having higher costs. It's cheaper, for everyone involved, to pay someone to sit around doing nothing, than to pay them to walk around doing stuff.

And we're not talking welfare to able-bodied people here, but old-age support payments. If you put a 60+ year old in work then the $5 you paid them isn't the cost: you have inordinate amounts of additional costs to ensure that they're working safely and aren't injured. Plus, they take up a space that could be filled by a more productive person. It's not "PC" but it's the truth.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: martinuzz on April 24, 2018, 07:08:47 am
As far as I could understand, that's just a part of the proposed changes. The tax increase was to fill budget deficits for social support in general, not just old-age support payments. Besides that, another proposal, part of people's pensions were to be withheld for a fund for medical expenses.
But perhaps I misunderstood that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Reelya on April 24, 2018, 07:15:22 am
Don't forget that Ortega is the man who created the universal healthcare system in Nicaragua:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Nicaragua

Quote
During this 1970s period, Nicaragua had one of the worst life expectancies at birth and one of the highest levels of infant mortality in the regional area. ... Only 25% of the total health budget was controlled by the Ministry of Health, and 90% of the services went to 10% of the population

^ pre-Ortega

Quote
After the 1979 Revolution, the new government established a new Unified National Health System that instated the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health (MINSA) at the head of health services throughout the nation. This system also integrated the Nicaraguan Social Security Institute (INSS) under MINSA's direction in order to make it financially feasible to provide a single national health service available to all Nicaraguan citizens, regardless of socioeconomic background. With the combination of these institutions, the INSS hospitals and clinics, previously only accessible to insured employees, then opened their doors to the larger population.

^ post-Ortega

Basically, Ortega is the guy who turned medical care into something everyone had a right to have, pensions into something everyone got: when he first took power, life expectancy was 58 years, e.g. lower than the pension eligibility age. Niacaraguans now live 75 years, so of course, the system needs tweaks, and it's not Ortega's fault that it needs tweaks. Nicaraguans live much longer than before Ortega took power. People live longer now, and thus suffer from more diseases of old age.

The system needs more money now, for pensions and age-related medical care, not because Ortega fucked things up, but because they succeeded in raising the standard of living and life expectancy so much. The conservative economists are the ones going "slash pensions" e.g. their response to living too long is to remove support for old people, thus solving the "problem" of too many people living too long: stopping the pension for 60 year olds saves money directly, but also indirectly, by reducing the number of people who will survive to 65.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: martinuzz on May 04, 2018, 03:01:08 am
Maduro just nationalized Venezuela's largest private bank, Banesco, and 11 of it's executives have been arrested by the police.
They have been charged with attacking the nation's valuta.
According to public prosecutor Tark Saab, the bank's management has deliberately devalued the bolivar, they are responsible for 'disturbances' in regard to the Venezuelan currency, they have made attacks on the currency possible, and obscured those.

The government stated on state television the government has taken control of the bank to save it from bankrupcy. A new board of directors will be appointed by the government, lead by the Secretary of Finance Yomana Koteich.

Juan Carlos Escotet, the president of Banesco, has commented and said the charges are disproportional. Escotet lives in Spain, but he has promised to travel to Venezuela to aid his imprisoned executives.

https://beta.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/maduro-arresteert-bankbestuurders-en-neemt-grootste-private-bank-venezuela-over~b3d98cbcb/
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nicaraguan Antifa vs Imperialism
Post by: Dorsidwarf on May 04, 2018, 03:10:07 am
Smells like trying to pin current economic woes on a scapegoat so that people are more willing to get behind your attempts to fix the economy to me
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Teneb on September 02, 2018, 06:26:01 pm
DISCLAIMER: I make no pretensions of being impartial, so do your research and don't believe me blindly!

Alright kiddos, it's time to necro this thread. Why? Because it's election time for Brasil! (Also Venezuela is in the shitter.)

What is the background for this election? Well, let's take it one-by-one:

-Economic crisis hit the country
-Dilma Rousseff refused to play the corruption game with Congress (the actual rulers of the country)
-So they decided to wreck the country further, pin it on her, and impeach her on a bullshit excuse.
-Once she was impeached they immediately legalized what they impeached her for and put her VP, Michel Temer, in her place.
-Turns out the Vampire is actually a horrible ruler, to no one's surprise.
-Also reactionaries are on the rise.
-Also also Venezuelans are flooding into the country from the north and tensions are on the rise in Roraima.
-Oh, and ex-President Lula was arrested not because of anything he actually did (though he is corrupt), but to take him out of the election since he expressed his interest in running.

So, all in all: a lovely time for elections!

But who are the contenders? Well, judges have decided that Lula cannot run, so instead we have these fine, fine folks (with handy wikipedia links!):

Álvaro Dias (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%81lvaro_Dias): a neoliberal back by PODE (Podemos / "We Can"). His running mate is Paulo Rabello de Castro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paulo_Rabello_de_Castro), an economist from the PSC (Partido Social Cristão / "Social Christian Party") who thinks neoliberalism is totally a christian thing.

Cabo [Corporal] Daciolo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabo_Daciolo): former military firefighter and current fascist is the candidate for the PATRI (Patriota / "Patriot") party. He's notable only for spouting in a debate that the leftists planned to create URSAL if they won. What is URSAL? Well, nobody knew until he explained that it is Union of Socialist Republics of Latin America, of course! His VP is Suelene Balduino from the same party, who is so notable she doesn't even have a wiki page in portuguese.

Ciro Gomes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciro_Gomes): backed by the PDT (Partido Democrata Trabalhista / "Democrat Labour Party"), he was actually pretty popular when candidates were announcing their intent to run. This dropped, hard, when he revealed his VP: Kátia Abreu (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1tia_Abreu), who is a notorious oligarch whose plantations are staffed by debt slaves. Ciro's political leaning is left, but still close to the centre.

Geraldo Alckmin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldo_Alckmin): this more conservative neoliberal is actually a decent pick (and I do greatly dislike neolibs), running for PSDB (Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira / "Party of the Brazilian Social Democracy") with his running mate as Ana Amélia Lemos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ana_Am%C3%A9lia_Lemos) from PP (Partido Progressista / "Progressive Party")

Guilherme Boulos (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guilherme_Boulos): Something of an outsider, Boulos made his name as the leader o f the MTST (Movimento dos Trabalhadores Sem Teto / "Homeless Workers Movement") and is considered one of the top leftist picks around. He is the candidate of PSOL (Partido Socialismo e Liberdade / "Socialism and Liberty Party"), same party as his running mate Sônia Guajaja (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%B4nia_Guajajara), notable for being the leader of amerindian activism groups.

Henrique Meirelles (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henrique_Meirelles): formerly an executive for various banking institutions, he's got some weight in financial circles. Also rich as fuck. Also the candidate of MDB (Movimento Democrático Brasileiro / "Brazilian Democratic Movement"), the hegemonic party in congress, Temer's party and also the one with the biggest and strongest oligarchs. Also from MD is his VP, Germano Rigotto (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germano_Rigotto). Pretty much the non-reactionary, non-neoliberal conservative pick.

Jair Bolsonaro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jair_Bolsonaro): Oh boy. This asshole. A strong reactionary fascist like Cabo Daciolo, except he's rich, had time to get entrenched in politics despite being utterly despised by other politicians, and also pretty much every poltically incorrect opinion you can imagine rolled into a single person. He bases his campaign on: stopping teaching kids to accept non-heterosexual sexualities ("They are corrupting our children! But I totally respects people's option to be gay, totally."), not being in any (known) corruption scandals (not because of any merit on his part, the other corrupt fucks just hate him that much), and cutting all funding to human rights stuff because "bandits need to be shot, not coddled". His party is PSL (Partido Social-Liberal / "Partido Social-Liberal") whose name is suspiciously like that of some other far-right historical party of certain historical notoriety. His VP is General Hamilton Mourão (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_Mour%C3%A3o), from PRTB (Partido Renovador Trabalhista Brasileiro / "Brazilian Renewing Labour Party" (translation didn't turn out very well here)), who was not only openly racist in live tv, but actually thinks a new coup should happen.

João Amoedo (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo%C3%A3o_Amo%C3%AAdo): Is a banker and I get the feeling he wants to be a less-orange Trump. He's going with NOVO (Partido Novo / "New Party") and his running mate is Christian Lohbauer also from NOVO who has no wiki page so...

João Goulart Filho (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo%C3%A3o_Vicente_Goulart): from PPL (Partido Pátria Livre / "Free Fatherland Party"), is trying to ride on his deceased dad's reputation, given how João Goulart sr. was the last president before the military coup and was actually pretty ok before being deposed and assassinated. His running mate is Léo Alves also from PPL.

José Maria Eymael (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jos%C3%A9_Maria_Eymael): Not a lot to say about him, to be honest. Only thing that elevates him from being generic is that he's the evangelical candidate and as such shares views with his neopentescopal base. His party is DC (Democracia Cristã / "Christian Democracy") whose name also pretty much described him. VP is Helvio Costa also from DC.

Fernando Haddad (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Haddad): is the candidate for PT (Partido dos Trabalhadores / "Workers' Party") since Lula is out. He'll be pretty much a stand-in for the ex-president. More interesting is his running mate Manuela d'Ávila (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manuela_d%27%C3%81vila) from PCdoB (Partido Comunista do Brasil / "Comunist Party of Brasil"), who had previously indicated she wanted to be president herself.

Marina Silva (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marina_Silva): backed by REDE (Rede Sustentabilidade / "Sustainability Network") is an environmentalist, but otherwise a centrist. Notable for not having strong opinions outside environmental matters. It's kind of notorious, actually. Her VP is Eduardo Jorge (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduardo_Jorge_Martins_Alves_Sobrinho) from PV (Partido Verde / "Green Party") who... is also an environmentalist.

Finally we have Vera Lúcia who doesn't have a page. She, and her running mate Hertz Dias, are from PSTU (Partido Socialista dos Trabalhadores Unificado / "Unified Workers' Socialist Party"), a party noted for its strong, some might say radical, syndicalist and fierce anticapitalist stances.



Whew, that was a pretty long write. Frankly, I am not too worried that most of the really bad ones in this list can actually do any more damage than Temer to the country because Congress is the actual ruler of Brasil, as proven with ex-president Dilma. What I'm worried about is the boost to reactionary morale that's going to happen regardless of Bolsonaro winning or not (which is unlikely, because polls indicate that roughly 40% of the population will absolutely never vote him regardless of opponent).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 02, 2018, 06:39:57 pm
So the candidates are the rich, the ludicrously rich, the militiarists and the irrelevant
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 02, 2018, 06:41:25 pm
So if I'm understanding the electoral rules correctly, the two candidates with the most votes will move on to the second round? (assuming no majority)

I'm just curious if it's possible that you might end up with a choice exclusively between a priest of mammon or a cheeto fascist if the crowd is split badly enough. Do candidates normally drop out, or is there tons of strategic voting anyway where everyone knows the 2-3 possibilities for the second round?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: scriver on September 02, 2018, 06:43:33 pm
Whew, that was a pretty long write.

Very interesting though!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Teneb on September 02, 2018, 06:46:02 pm
So the candidates are the rich, the ludicrously rich, the militiarists and the irrelevant
You forgot the marxist-troskyists.

So if I'm understanding the electoral rules correctly, the two candidates with the most votes will move on to the second round? (assuming no majority)
Pretty much.

Do candidates normally drop out
It's happened before, but the ones who were going to drop out have already done so.

or is there tons of strategic voting anyway where everyone knows the 2-3 possibilities for the second round?
There have been some surprises before. This one will be pretty cutthroat.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 02, 2018, 06:46:33 pm
So if I'm understanding the electoral rules correctly, the two candidates with the most votes will move on to the second round? (assuming no majority)

I'm just curious if it's possible that you might end up with a choice exclusively between a priest of mammon or a cheeto fascist if the crowd is split badly enough. Do candidates normally drop out, or is there tons of strategic voting anyway where everyone knows the 2-3 possibilities for the second round?
Didnt that happen in France not too long ago?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: smjjames on September 02, 2018, 07:05:52 pm
So if I'm understanding the electoral rules correctly, the two candidates with the most votes will move on to the second round? (assuming no majority)

I'm just curious if it's possible that you might end up with a choice exclusively between a priest of mammon or a cheeto fascist if the crowd is split badly enough. Do candidates normally drop out, or is there tons of strategic voting anyway where everyone knows the 2-3 possibilities for the second round?
Didnt that happen in France not too long ago?

In the sense of the two major parties collapsing and it ending up being mostly a competition of the fringe, yes. Though it's also the system used in France I believe, as opposed to the system here in the US. Also, if you change it to priestess of Mammon, that's a pretty apt description of 2016 in the US.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 02, 2018, 07:19:26 pm
The 2016-17 French election was what came to mind, but Trump winning the 2016 Republican primary is another example of how crowded fields of candidates can distort the result. Trump certainly didn't have anywhere close to a majority of support in the party at the time, but had a consistently large plurality of like 20-30% that was enough to win on the margins while the other candidates split the remainder (and did so less consistently). If I were picking a system to handle crowded fields, a 2-round ranked vote would probably be better, barring something ridiculous like a double elimination tournament that votes every candidate against every other candidate (more or less).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 03, 2018, 05:28:29 am
Hope you guys enjoy the incineration of irreplaceable relics of human and natural history because 20 million artefacts just caught fire in Brazil's national museum (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45392668)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: scriver on September 03, 2018, 06:34:49 am
Well. Fuck.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Teneb on September 03, 2018, 07:37:47 am
Pissed doesn't even begin to describe my current mood.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Kagus on September 03, 2018, 08:59:27 am
Hope you guys enjoy the incineration of irreplaceable relics of human and natural history because 20 million artefacts just caught fire in Brazil's national museum (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45392668)
Shit, that's awful... Hopefully there were at least a few things that survived the fire, and at least nobody died, but still... Damn.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Teneb on September 03, 2018, 09:18:00 am
Hope you guys enjoy the incineration of irreplaceable relics of human and natural history because 20 million artefacts just caught fire in Brazil's national museum (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45392668)
Shit, that's awful... Hopefully there were at least a few things that survived the fire, and at least nobody died, but still... Damn.
A very few things did. The biggest was the meteorite by virtue of being a meteorite and thus not flammable.

The reason it burned down was because there was no water. There was no water because the government froze investments in education and costs needed to be cut and obviously they were going to cut there and not their absurd salaries.

And of course the reactionaries are coming out of the woodwork to show their prejudice by claiming this happened because the Ministry giving money to artists they don't approve of, like ones from favelas or drag queens. Also they w.r.i.t.e l.1.k.e t.h.i.s as if it is going to protect them from criticism or being hit with a ban, which is as adorable as it is stupid.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: scriver on September 03, 2018, 09:36:22 am
...For reals? As some kind of... anti-ban-bot thing, or what?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 03, 2018, 11:18:51 am
Quote
Prof Paulo Buckup, an expert in fish science at the museum, arrived at 19:30 (22:30 GMT) local time to find parts of the building where animal specimens were kept still intact.
"It's unfortunate but the firefighters were not in a position to do anything, to fight anything," he told BBC Brasil's Julia Carneiro.
"They had no water, no ladders, no equipment.
"So we took the initiative to get in to try and save what we could. We had to break down doors. The soldiers helped us carry things."
Prof Buckup rushed into the burning building to save as much of its extensive collection of molluscs as he could, rescuing "a few thousand" specimens, a "tiny" part of the collection.
"I don't know how many tens of thousands of insects and crustaceans were lost," he says.
"I feel very sorry for my colleagues, some of whom have worked here for 30 or 40 years. Now all evidence of their work is lost, their lives have lost meaning, too."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45398084
Entire generations worth of work lost in one night, millions of years of history gone. It's a miracle the emergency response teams managed to salvage anything at all

Quote
One issue appears to be the lack of a sprinkler system. Mr Dias Duarte told Globo TV that a $5.3m (£4.1m) modernisation plan agreed in June would have included the installation of modern fire prevention equipment, but only after October's elections.
That they were so close to installing fire prevention systems hurts even more. I think this may be the largest museum fire in recorded human history, at least since Alexandrian or Mongolian times
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: redwallzyl on September 03, 2018, 11:27:08 am
A great lose for humanity.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: smjjames on September 03, 2018, 11:49:48 am
Wtf? The firefighters themselves didn't have water or any equipment at all? What do they use for firefighting in the area then? Bucket teams? The sheer dumbness of not even funding first responders like firefighters is astounding.

A great lose for humanity.

Hopefully a good deal of it was documented or digitized in some form, so, the loss is mitigated, but still.....

Quote
Prof Paulo Buckup, an expert in fish science at the museum, arrived at 19:30 (22:30 GMT) local time to find parts of the building where animal specimens were kept still intact.
"It's unfortunate but the firefighters were not in a position to do anything, to fight anything," he told BBC Brasil's Julia Carneiro.
"They had no water, no ladders, no equipment.
"So we took the initiative to get in to try and save what we could. We had to break down doors. The soldiers helped us carry things."
Prof Buckup rushed into the burning building to save as much of its extensive collection of molluscs as he could, rescuing "a few thousand" specimens, a "tiny" part of the collection.
"I don't know how many tens of thousands of insects and crustaceans were lost," he says.
"I feel very sorry for my colleagues, some of whom have worked here for 30 or 40 years. Now all evidence of their work is lost, their lives have lost meaning, too."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45398084
Entire generations worth of work lost in one night, millions of years of history gone. It's a miracle the emergency response teams managed to salvage anything at all

Quote
One issue appears to be the lack of a sprinkler system. Mr Dias Duarte told Globo TV that a $5.3m (£4.1m) modernisation plan agreed in June would have included the installation of modern fire prevention equipment, but only after October's elections.
That they were so close to installing fire prevention systems hurts even more. I think this may be the largest museum fire in recorded human history, at least since Alexandrian or Mongolian times

Not sure what you're referring to by 'Mongolian times'?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 03, 2018, 12:02:40 pm
"Millions of years" of history? ???
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Kagus on September 03, 2018, 12:03:05 pm
Not sure what you're referring to by 'Mongolian times'?
Isn't that the newspaper that's delivered via horseback and catapult?

"Millions of years" of history? ???
Important fossils, presumably.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 03, 2018, 01:08:56 pm
Not sure what you're referring to by 'Mongolian times'?
Mongolian conquests & the attendant burning of libraries / destruction of artefacts

"Millions of years" of history? ???
The museum had a paleontology department which stored items of natural history. Bones & fossils of plants, dinos amongst other things
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Egan_BW on September 03, 2018, 01:39:18 pm
Damn, that's really bad.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Teneb on September 03, 2018, 01:40:51 pm
Wtf? The firefighters themselves didn't have water or any equipment at all? What do they use for firefighting in the area then? Bucket teams? The sheer dumbness of not even funding first responders like firefighters is astounding.
The state government is bankrupt and the museum was barely getting by. So the firefighters were unprepared AND the museum had no water. The former because previous governors (Sérgio Cabral in particular) were so corrupt it makes regular corrupt officials look honest, and the latter because funding was frozen for education because budget cuts had to be made and obviously it wasn't going to come out of congressfolk's paychecks. Obviously.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Perfidious URSAL Corrupting Kids!
Post by: Kagus on September 03, 2018, 01:56:06 pm
budget cuts had to be made and obviously it wasn't going to come out of congressfolk's paychecks. Obviously.
Well somebody has to be indignant about all this! Hopes and prayers don't just hopefully pray for themselves!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Teneb on September 06, 2018, 03:45:42 pm
Breaking news, kids.

Presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro has just been stabbed (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45441447) by a random man while on campaign. Thing is, I've seen pictures of him receiving first aid immediatiely after and... for someone who has been stabbed in the belly, his shirt is suprisingly intact and has no blood on it at all. Same goes to his body and immediate area.

This reminds me of Carlos Lacerda, a journalist from before the Military Coup. During the democratic government of president Getúlio Vargas (who also headed a dictatorship just before and during WW2), he attacked the government over every single issue he could because he wanted to be president and couldn't. Fed up with this, the president's bodyguard independently (really, Vargas actually didn't know 'til it was too late) decided to silence Lacerda... except he botched up the job and killed Lacerda's own bodyguard instead. Lacerda escaped to a hospital, where a gunshot was heard and later he left said hospital with a cast on his foot saying he got shot as well. Despite, you know, casts not being used on gunshot wounds.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Kagus on September 07, 2018, 03:53:09 am
Well, it is also possible that the wound is just small and difficult to see, and that the primary bleeding is internal. It happens. Abdominal cavity has a fair amount of cavity to be abdominal bled into, and the skin surrounding it isn't necessarily that big of a bleeder by itself, all depending.

As for casts on a gunshot wound, I'm not sure if standard practice is to cover (treated, obviously) open wounds right away or if you're supposed to specifically wait until they've healed over somewhat and been verified as uninfected before putting on a cast, but bullets can certainly break bones. And broken bones tend to enjoy casts, from what I understand.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 07, 2018, 06:37:41 am
Generally you don't false flag an assassination on yourself if you're winning, but the lack of blood is an intriguing detail.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
What is the likelihood of the assassin's knife being bloodless after stabbing Bolsonaro? If it was a genuine attack, who sent him?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Teneb on September 07, 2018, 07:33:34 am
Turns out most of the blood remained inside. The attacker, who was just a really pissed off man acting alone turns out, managed to tear Bolsonaro's intestines, so it was actually pretty bad and the candidate is in intensive care still. He's stable, though.

I'm actually really mad at the attacker, because this was a popularity boost Bolsonaro could've done without and justifies his authoritarian, fascist discourse.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Magistrum on September 08, 2018, 11:51:52 am
Man, I'm still trying to fully grasp the whole triplex thing, but Brazil has been getting increasingly interesting lately.

At least we can all point and laugh at Cabo Daciolo.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: smjjames on September 08, 2018, 02:52:57 pm
Hey South America, you're gonna love this, and I mean that in a sarcastic way: http://thehill.com/policy/international/americas/405696-trump-officials-discussed-secret-overthrow-of-venezuelas-maduro

link to NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/08/world/americas/donald-trump-venezuela-military-coup.html

It doesn't seem to have gotten to the actual 'providing support' stage though, and got aborted. I'll give credit to the Obama admin for rebuffing the discussions because we don't exactly have a great track record of having the outcome of overthrowing a dictator go well (when we get involved in it) and it's just a continuation of feeling like we can just act with impunity in South America.

CNN article that summarizes the NYT article more clearly: https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/08/politics/trump-venezuela-officers-secret-meetings-maduro-coup/index.html

Even though the whole thing never got to the support stage from the US, the fact that US officials entertained the idea is still going to anger a lot of people since it just looks like we're up to our old Cold War sheneinighans. And of course, there's no guarantee that the military coup will actually restore democracy or be any better than things are now.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Teneb on September 08, 2018, 03:10:49 pm
Oh boy, we're back to this huh? I miss the days when the US forgot that anything south of Mexico is actually not part of Mexico.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2018, 03:16:13 pm
I don't think the US ever stopped with the whole regime change thing m8s
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Teneb on September 08, 2018, 03:18:23 pm
I don't think the US ever stopped with the whole regime change thing m8s
They did when they switched over to the Middle East when it comes to South America. Except for Colombia, but that's why no one likes their government.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: smjjames on September 08, 2018, 03:29:10 pm
I don't think the US ever stopped with the whole regime change thing m8s

I know, but at least the Obama admin seems to have tried to at least learn from history... while botching up Libya.

I don't think the US ever stopped with the whole regime change thing m8s
They did when they switched over to the Middle East when it comes to South America. Except for Colombia, but that's why no one likes their government.

What would be especially galling is that the military official they met with was under sactions for accused crimes (it wasn't mentioned what crimes), so, really, all they'd be doing is replacing one corrupt dictator with another one that the US supported.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on September 08, 2018, 03:52:18 pm
I imagine that's why they nevrr provided any material support and then stopped talking with them. Even the Trump administration can see a bad idea for what it is every now and then.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2018, 04:12:14 pm
I know, but at least the Obama admin seems to have tried to at least learn from history... while botching up Libya.
Botching Libya.. Syria... And still Afghanistan. That's actually depressing in hindsight, America's Afghanistan in 2018 is still Afghanistan

I imagine that's why they nevrr provided any material support and then stopped talking with them. Even the Trump administration can see a bad idea for what it is every now and then.
He probably concluded it'd cost him votes in his next election
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: smjjames on September 08, 2018, 04:21:54 pm
Reading the NYT article again, it doesn't say why the officials didn't do material support, but it sounds like the plotters didn't really have a plan for what to do afterwards and probably no real guarantee that they'd relinquish power to a newly elected official.

It seems to have also been in part reaching out diplomatic feelers and an intelligence operation as well.

I imagine that's why they nevrr provided any material support and then stopped talking with them. Even the Trump administration can see a bad idea for what it is every now and then.
He probably concluded it'd cost him votes in his next election

Pfft, plenty of his base would cheer at the downfall of a 'socialist' government. I doubt he'd lose many votes over it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on September 08, 2018, 04:31:31 pm
He probably concluded it'd cost him votes in his next election

If anything, It'd gain him more support. There's been voices  in the Republican establishment calling for the military to take action (a coup, in other words) for quite a while now.

My take on this is that Trump probably pushed the meetings during his "Let's invade Venezuela" phase last year, and that whoever ended up running the contact with the officers strung them out until Trunp lost interest and then let it die.

It's still horrific on many levels, but at least nothing actually ended up happening.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 08, 2018, 04:35:36 pm
It is a shame to see the US "returning" to "the ways of the cold war."

Wait... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_military_operations)
Hmm... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change#19th_century_interventions)
H (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walker_affair) m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_Wars) m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_the_Mexican_Revolution) m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Haiti) m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_Nicaragua) m (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_occupation_of_the_Dominican_Republic_(1916-24))
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Egan_BW on September 08, 2018, 04:41:48 pm
🤔 hmm
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2018, 04:48:59 pm
Really activates my almonds 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔 🤔
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: smjjames on September 08, 2018, 04:54:16 pm
Yeah I get it, the 'Cold War ways' is stuff that we never really stopped doing and had been doing for a long time anyway.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
Post by: Reelya on September 08, 2018, 10:18:16 pm
Even though the whole thing never got to the support stage from the US, the fact that US officials entertained the idea is still going to anger a lot of people since it just looks like we're up to our old Cold War sheneinighans. And of course, there's no guarantee that the military coup will actually restore democracy or be any better than things are now.

It went ok the last time Venezuela had a right-wing coup. They merely abolished the constitution, the human rights ombudsman, the supreme court, the national electoral commission and parliament. Democracy restored! (at least according to Bush-era American TV).

One question we can ask is what effect the sanctions are having. Zimbabwe had similar sanctions, and the hyper-inflation only came after the sanctions were imposed. Similarly, Venezuela during Chavez's period 1999-2013 had lower inflation than the decade before, while the current hyper-inflation follows a set of similar sanctions as imposed on Zimbabwe in 1999. Also, the famous Weimar Republic hyperinflation was noted as being connected to the Treaty of Versailles, which was effectively a set of sanctions too. So, historically, you see sanctions followed by hyperinflation in a range of nations, regardless of whether they're rightwing, leftwing or whatever. It doesn't make much sense to say that hyperinflation is due to the economic theory of the one country such as "socialism" in Venezuela's case (hint: it's still a capitalist nation),  because that doesn't explain why such disparate nations have all had the same thing happen, preceded by one specific thing: sanctions. Politically, sanctions also rarely (if ever) lead to democracy, instead they fuel controlling tendencies of the current political order, so you see nations becoming more authoritarian in response to sanctions quite often in history.

I can make some good predictions about what would happen if Maduro is ousted from power. It would be good for some people, sanctions would be lifted, IMF loans would flow, US and UK taxpayers would bail out the nation. Then they get oil flowing at big discounts after bringing in the oil companies. Those are the good things for Venezuela. However, domestically, you need to look at who will be running the show, mostly people who signed off on, or approved of that coup in which they abolished all traces of constitutional rule when they had the chance last time. "War on the Poor" would be a likely scenario, with unions crushed, public health spending slashed and so forth. Don't forget that 54% of the nation were living in "extreme poverty", and they had peak inflation of 100% per year before 1999, when the people who want to overthrow Maduro used to be in power. You're only hearing about it more now because the people complaining are lighter-skinned middle-class people. When it was peasants in the barrios starving to death, the world just didn't care.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Doomblade187 on September 08, 2018, 11:19:11 pm
While I don't doubt that international interference does play a role, the ecomomic policies and poor political performance,  combined with a refusal of humanitarian aid have not helped the situation. If the Maduro regime was better than the one before, that's good, but it doesn't excuse their totalitarian bullshit.

You do make a good point with being careful about regime change.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Teneb on September 08, 2018, 11:55:48 pm
Maduro ain't Chavez. Chavez was a skilled statesman who managed to control his government. Maduro... not so much.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Doomblade187 on September 09, 2018, 12:55:35 am
Maduro ain't Chavez. Chavez was a skilled statesman who managed to control his government. Maduro... not so much.
my American is showing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Reelya on September 09, 2018, 12:57:01 am
Also for historical reference, in 1989 in the Pre-Chavez era, there were protests comparable to the anti-Maduro protests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caracazo

Quote
The Caracazo, or sacudón, is the name given to the wave of protests, riots, looting, shootings and massacres that began on 27 February 1989 in Venezuela's capital, Caracas, and the surrounding towns. The weeklong clashes resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people, thousands by some accounts, mostly at the hands of security forces and the military.

Maduro at his most extremely authoritarian never got close to that response from the good old "democratic" days. Even at the worst, Maduro can't be said to have "massacred" protestors. One of the things Chavez was against was these previous massacres, and it's a given that since Chavez there have been no such massacres - except for the one initiated by the old-era military and police trying to wrest control from Chavez in 2002.

If you read the current accounts they need to scrape numbers together by including people killed by both security forces and rebels, people hit in the head with tear-gas cannisters, and people killed at the same time, in ways either caused by the protests or which turn out to be completely unrelated to the protests. And even adding up a year or two of those scattered deaths, they have about 10% of the lower estimates of the number killed by the military in the Caracazo demonstration by the previous regime, which neither Democrats or Republicans or the American media gave the first shit about. Bush Senior took the government's side in the 1989 Venezuelan massacre, and Bush Junior took the murdering police + military's side in the 2002 coup.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Hanslanda on September 20, 2018, 08:47:01 am
PTW like the spying American I am.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 10:00:21 pm
From the polls here (https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2018-presidential-election) (which I grabbed from here (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republican-women-support-kavanaugh/)), it looks like Brazils version of Trump* is leading. Though the actual leader is the deSilva guy, the former two term President, but he's blocked from running due to corruption. I guess it says something about the candidates that a former president ousted for corruption is way more popular than the other candidates.

Also, I think I've heard that Bolsonaro said that he would fix the corruption by applying 'military values', which sounds really worrying to me. Maybe he just means the discipline, but it's easy to see how it would go further.

Also2, it's funny how Bolsonaro, a far right candidate, is in a party called 'social liberals', turns the entire concept of liberal on it's head and bends it into a pretzel.

*TBH, he sounds like he is BEYOND Trump, like way worse in some aspects. Also, the 538 article thinks Bolsonaro is a Captian, but the poll article says General, so, which is correct?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Kagus on September 30, 2018, 03:45:51 am
He's generally a captain. Clearly.

Or perhaps he's actually a superhero, Captain General, and he fights against the generic problems the country is burdened with, such as education and poor people.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
Post by: Reelya on September 30, 2018, 04:19:26 am
He is the very model of a Brazilian army capitan.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: Teneb on September 30, 2018, 10:47:10 am
From the polls here (https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2018-presidential-election) (which I grabbed from here (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republican-women-support-kavanaugh/)), it looks like Brazils version of Trump* is leading. Though the actual leader is the deSilva guy, the former two term President, but he's blocked from running due to corruption. I guess it says something about the candidates that a former president ousted for corruption is way more popular than the other candidates.

Also, I think I've heard that Bolsonaro said that he would fix the corruption by applying 'military values', which sounds really worrying to me. Maybe he just means the discipline, but it's easy to see how it would go further.

Also2, it's funny how Bolsonaro, a far right candidate, is in a party called 'social liberals', turns the entire concept of liberal on it's head and bends it into a pretzel.

*TBH, he sounds like he is BEYOND Trump, like way worse in some aspects. Also, the 538 article thinks Bolsonaro is a Captian, but the poll article says General, so, which is correct?
He's neither a captain nor a general. He USED to be a captain before he was kicked from the army for attempting domestic terrorism (he wanted to destroy Rio's water dam because he was butthurt about the end of the dictatorship), but was merely kicked out due to legal bullshit. His running mate is a retired general who proudly states he was mentored by the head of the dictatorship's secret police, so that's lovely too. Also remember that the Nazi party had "social" in the name (and Bolsonaro's electorate are fond of claiming Nazis were leftists to make the left look bad).

Also, every single poll predicting the second round of the elections shows him losing (and one tie). He also went on record saying that he won't accept any result that is not his victory. So that's just lovely. Yesterday, not sure if in response to that specifically, more than 40 cities had gigantic protests against him.


Meanwhile, candidate Cabo Daciolo, who has no chance of winning, is befuddling everyone by being the most consistent conservative I've ever seen. Why? When he says he's pro-life because that's what a good christian should be... he means it. Despite being in a fascistic party he went on record to say that drug traffickers and militias should be... reformed in humane jails rather than the horrible dungeons we have right now, that they need to be shown love and given equal opportunity, and that giving the police MORE GUNS will just make the problem worse. It's like we've fallen into some bizarro world.

Sorry for the lack of sources, but it's all in pt-br (I can post them anyway if there is demand)

EDIT: Fixed the image
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: smjjames on September 30, 2018, 11:10:54 am
From the polls here (https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2018-presidential-election) (which I grabbed from here (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republican-women-support-kavanaugh/)), it looks like Brazils version of Trump* is leading. Though the actual leader is the deSilva guy, the former two term President, but he's blocked from running due to corruption. I guess it says something about the candidates that a former president ousted for corruption is way more popular than the other candidates.

Also, I think I've heard that Bolsonaro said that he would fix the corruption by applying 'military values', which sounds really worrying to me. Maybe he just means the discipline, but it's easy to see how it would go further.

Also2, it's funny how Bolsonaro, a far right candidate, is in a party called 'social liberals', turns the entire concept of liberal on it's head and bends it into a pretzel.

*TBH, he sounds like he is BEYOND Trump, like way worse in some aspects. Also, the 538 article thinks Bolsonaro is a Captian, but the poll article says General, so, which is correct?
He's neither a captain nor a general. He USED to be a captain before he was kicked from the army for attempting domestic terrorism (he wanted to destroy Rio's water dam because he was butthurt about the end of the dictatorship), but was merely kicked out due to legal bullshit. His running mate is a retired general who proudly states he was mentored by the head of the dictatorship's secret police, so that's lovely too. Also remember that the Nazi party had "social" in the name (and Bolsonaro's electorate are fond of claiming Nazis were leftists to make the left look bad).

@bolded: What?? And he is still allowed to run? That's just messed up.

And yeah, I know the Nazi party had 'social' in it's name, I was poking at the 'liberal' bit because here, liberal is left wing and the guy is hard right wing.

Quote
Meanwhile, candidate Cabo Daciolo, who has no chance of winning, is befuddling everyone by being the most consistent conservative I've ever seen. Why? When he says he's pro-life because that's what a good christian should be... he means it. Despite being in a fascistic party he went on record to say that drug traffickers and militias should be... reformed in humane jails rather than the horrible dungeons we have right now, that they need to be shown love and given equal opportunity, and that giving the police MORE GUNS will just make the problem worse. It's like we've fallen into some bizarro world.

Sorry for the lack of sources, but it's all in pt-br (I can post them anyway if there is demand)

So, down in Brazil, Conservatives are left wing and Liberals are right wing? Must be really confusing for Brazillians to talk politics with Americans. Pro-life (aka anti-abortion) is a standard conservative position over here though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: Reelya on September 30, 2018, 12:37:08 pm
So, down in Brazil, Conservatives are left wing and Liberals are right wing? Must be really confusing for Brazillians to talk politics with Americans. Pro-life (aka anti-abortion) is a standard conservative position over here though.
Nope, Bolsonaro switched parties to the social liberals, and then the main faction of that part left in disgust, leaving the faction who brought Bolsonaro to have at it. They're talking about renaming themselves Republicanos.

Also, however, remember that in the non-American world, "liberal" mainly means economic liberal, as in the phrase "neoliberalism", whereas "libertarian" would more likely be used to mean what "social liberal" means in the USA. Since "libertarian" is closer to the phrase "civil liberties". It's actually the modern usages in America of liberal and libertarian which are out of whack with the historical meanings.

Many Americans seem "mind blown" by the concept that e.g. "libertarianism" could be defined differently elsewhere, but they miss the point that the modern American definition is quite recent - post WWII. Other nations just never had this "rebranding" of "libertarian" as an extremist capitalist doctrine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarianism
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: smjjames on September 30, 2018, 01:13:04 pm
I don't think I've ever heard of the term 'social liberal' used here in the US, probably gets lumped into 'SOCIALIZMZZ!!' edit: Unless perhaps one is talking about social issues (abortion, gay rights, etc), where there are social conservatives and social liberals.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 30, 2018, 04:41:20 pm
A basic way of thinking about it is to consider whether a party's social or economic policies can be called "liberal". In the US, Democrats are both "social liberals" (permissive social policies, civil rights etc) as well as "economic liberals" (center right economic policy, low taxes and high private sector support). Republicans on the other hand are relatively "socially illiberal" (mostly because of religious zealotry and widespread racism in the US) but are also more intensely "economic liberals" (further-right economic policy to the point of being plutocratic). It's ironic that Republicans have turned the entire term "liberal" into a pejorative while themselves being economically more intensely liberal in the classical sense, but it makes some sense since it's really on the "social liberal" end of things that the two parties differ most.

In many places, "social liberals" (both social and economic liberals, like Democrats) would be considered at least historically "conservatives" relative to the other parties, as most places had far a greater development of labor politics and socialism (before it was suppressed or otherwise died out, particularly strongly in the cold war). The gap has more recently in the 80s and 90s been narrowed by the "3rd way" center-left politics led by people like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, who made "neoliberalism" more prominent in formally left-wing parties. This led many parties that were formally at least nominally economically socialist or labor parties to become effectively completely economically liberal, or just in general more economically right-wing if they were already economically liberal.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: smjjames on October 05, 2018, 10:16:13 am
@reelya and urbangiraffe: It was partially me joking with teneb as he was saying it was like bizarro world and partly actual confusion because the words far-right and liberal just don't mesh, like, don't even compute together.

Anyhoo, Brazil is voting this Sunday (https://www.vox.com/2018/10/5/17938024/brazil-presidential-election-2018-bolsonaro-haddad). According to the article, this is just the first round though. If my understanding is correct, Brazils system is closer to that of France (with a first round and then a second without going through a primary) than the US (with a primary first round and general second round. Which, actually, isn't all that different on paper).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
Post by: feelotraveller on October 06, 2018, 03:24:55 am
the words far-right and liberal just don't mesh, like, don't even compute together.
It's clear that you have never been to Australia.  :P
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Teneb on October 07, 2018, 04:39:31 pm
Voting is closed, and now the wait beings with great trepidation.

Here's to hoping I don't to redact a bunch of posts.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 07, 2018, 07:59:29 pm
Not sure why you'd have to redact a bunch of posts?

Anyways, Bolsonaro AKA El Tropico Trump won the first round with almost all votes counted (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45780176) at 46% with Haddad at 29%.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Teneb on October 07, 2018, 08:47:25 pm
Not sure why you'd have to redact a bunch of posts?

Anyways, Bolsonaro AKA El Tropico Trump won the first round with almost all votes counted (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45780176) at 46% with Haddad at 29%.
Because if he wins there's a good chance people who don't support him won't have a good time, because he supported and still does the old military dictatorship- sorry, intervention of '64. Because he outright said any result that is not his victory (though that seems unlikely at this point) will be a fraud. Because his running mate, who proudly says he was mentored by the head of the old secret police, speculated that maybe, just maybe, they'll have to do a "self-coup".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 07, 2018, 09:01:36 pm
Not sure why you'd have to redact a bunch of posts?

Anyways, Bolsonaro AKA El Tropico Trump won the first round with almost all votes counted (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45780176) at 46% with Haddad at 29%.
Because if he wins there's a good chance people who don't support him won't have a good time, because he supported and still does the old military dictatorship- sorry, intervention of '64.

Oof, yet another thing we did in the Cold War that is now coming to bite us/the world in the ass (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Brazilian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat#US_involvement)

Quote
Because he outright said any result that is not his victory (though that seems unlikely at this point) will be a fraud. Because his running mate, who proudly says he was mentored by the head of the old secret police, speculated that maybe, just maybe, they'll have to do a "self-coup".

Not far off from where Trump threatened that he wouldn't concede (which is really a formality anyway) if Clinton won and claimed there were 3 million or somesuch fraudulent votes (ALL in California even :P ). He didn't threaten any kind of coup though, but I could see him riling his supporters up enough that some idiots might get the idea into their heads.

Does Bolsonaro even have the capability to do a self coup? I mean, not like he commands a regiment or anything, though I don't know how the Brazillian military would react to something like this.

edit: Lol this (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/08/brazil-election-2018-polls-close-after-chaotic-and-unpredictable-campaign-live?page=with:block-5bba9e26e4b0494d8052c3fb#block-5bba9e26e4b0494d8052c3fb), apparently 29% of people voted with blank or spoiled ballots, which is more than Haddad. Maybe we should try allowing blank ballots in the Presidential election, just for fun, heh. Might have been funnier in 2016 though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: scriver on October 08, 2018, 01:45:56 am
I'm always saying. Vote waivers, or at the very least blank votes, should still have representation. It's the only way to have politicians be accountable to the whole of society. You can't disenfranchise people if their absence still matters.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Kagus on October 08, 2018, 04:05:31 am
My dad postulated that a much superior voting system would be to have candidates input their opinions on a range of topics, and then have voters answer those same questions before the machine calculates the best match and casts your vote for the candidate you most agree with.

I pointed out that the major flaw of such a system, of course, would be that the winning candidate by a significant margin would be whoever answered "I don't know" on all the questions.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: scriver on October 08, 2018, 05:26:43 am
Lololololol I'd love that system
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Dorsidwarf on October 08, 2018, 08:53:27 am
saw a BBC article on the election, apparently he claimed that the only reason he didnt completely rule the first round was because of tampering with the voting machines
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Teneb on October 08, 2018, 08:59:04 am
saw a BBC article on the election, apparently he claimed that the only reason he didnt completely rule the first round was because of tampering with the voting machines
Which shows what we're dealing with. There was no tampering, but a whole lot of fake news plus the stupid biometric system not working right and causing huge delays (which were obviously held by fascists on site as proof of tampering).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: McTraveller on October 08, 2018, 10:14:48 am
I pointed out that the major flaw of such a system, of course, would be that the winning candidate by a significant margin would be whoever answered "I don't know" on all the questions.
Eh, if they were honest that they didn't know, and actually led with that approach, that would not be a flaw at all!  I'd much prefer leaders that admit when they don't know, rather than declaring that they do know and their way is The Answer(tm).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 08, 2018, 10:26:37 am
saw a BBC article on the election, apparently he claimed that the only reason he didnt completely rule the first round was because of tampering with the voting machines
Which shows what we're dealing with. There was no tampering, but a whole lot of fake news plus the stupid biometric system not working right and causing huge delays (which were obviously held by fascists on site as proof of tampering).

It also sounds like it's the first time (from either the BBC article or The Guardian liveblog) Brazil has used the electronic voting machines on such a wide scale and so, they're still working out the kinks.

Really though, it's just him using a trump-like excuse to explain away the votes not quite getting to 50%.

Anyways, does he REALLY have the capability to do a self-coup (in his running-mates words)? Putting aside the possibility of some idiots getting the idea into their head and attempting one on behalf of Bolsonaro, does the Brazilian military have the same kind of integrity as the US one does where I know with absolutely no doubt that they'll support whoever wins? I'm open to the possibility that they're just bullshitting, but given that coups have happened (fomented by the US, yes, yes, I KNOW) and given what I don't know and the fact that Bolsonaro has a sizeable following in the military...

You don't seem too worried about him actually trying as far as I can tell, but I don't know what you know that makes you not too worried about it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Teneb on October 08, 2018, 11:03:07 am
It also sounds like it's the first time (from either the BBC article or The Guardian liveblog) Brazil has used the electronic voting machines on such a wide scale and so, they're still working out the kinks.
Nah, it's been for years. It's the first year where everyone uses biometric verification though.

Anyways, does he REALLY have the capability to do a self-coup (in his running-mates words)? Putting aside the possibility of some idiots getting the idea into their head and attempting one on behalf of Bolsonaro, does the Brazilian military have the same kind of integrity as the US one does where I know with absolutely no doubt that they'll support whoever wins? I'm open to the possibility that they're just bullshitting, but given that coups have happened (fomented by the US, yes, yes, I KNOW) and given what I don't know and the fact that Bolsonaro has a sizeable following in the military...

You don't seem too worried about him actually trying as far as I can tell, but I don't know what you know that makes you not too worried about it.
I don't actually know. I just too tired to care for today. The army seems to be split, but I only really know what most rank-and-file are thinking, roughly. The generals? I got no fucking clue.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Reelya on October 12, 2018, 11:05:32 pm
Chaos in Brazil, Bolsonaro in stabbing attack:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/07/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-stabbing-knife-attack-election
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 12, 2018, 11:13:11 pm
You do realize how old that is, right? For a second I thought he got stabbed a second time.

edit: Teneb mentioned it way back here: http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=157112.msg7848449#msg7848449
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Reelya on October 12, 2018, 11:23:01 pm
Ah sorry I came across the story just today, didn't realize it was last month.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Kagus on October 13, 2018, 03:29:15 am
Yeah, I just figured this was a different event wherein Bolsonaro himself lost his cool and just started stabbing people in the streets for not promising to vote for him.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Magistrum on October 13, 2018, 08:23:24 am
Hahaha, imagine him going full pistola and hunting down the dirty, dirty, PT communists/nazis/venezuelans/whatever he is on about this time.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Reelya on October 13, 2018, 12:12:58 pm
Well if Bolsonaro loosens gun laws like he promises then when those stabbers come for you, you can shoot them with your gun. The logic seems perfectly sound.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 13, 2018, 12:18:43 pm
Or maybe go full Wild West, no gun laws at all.

(Yes, I know it's not actually true, towns still had rules on guns and all in the Wild West)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Hanslanda on October 21, 2018, 07:50:47 pm
Or maybe go full Wild West, no gun laws at all.

(Yes, I know it's not actually true, towns still had rules on guns and all in the Wild West)

Most wild west towns had extremely strict gun laws and were filled with civil war veterans. It uh... Wasn't very wild.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 21, 2018, 08:05:08 pm
Or maybe go full Wild West, no gun laws at all.

(Yes, I know it's not actually true, towns still had rules on guns and all in the Wild West)

Most wild west towns had extremely strict gun laws and were filled with civil war veterans. It uh... Wasn't very wild.

That's the keyword, most. There were certainly places that didn't have a whole lot of law and order.

Back on topic, isn't the second round of voting in the Brazillian Presidential election this week? 25th or something?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Teneb on October 22, 2018, 05:51:59 am
Or maybe go full Wild West, no gun laws at all.

(Yes, I know it's not actually true, towns still had rules on guns and all in the Wild West)

Most wild west towns had extremely strict gun laws and were filled with civil war veterans. It uh... Wasn't very wild.

That's the keyword, most. There were certainly places that didn't have a whole lot of law and order.

Back on topic, isn't the second round of voting in the Brazillian Presidential election this week? 25th or something?
28th.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 04:53:53 pm
Well, it's Election Day!... For Brazil. The Guardian has a liveblog up: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live

Not news for Teneb, but news for me (not surprised however...), Bolsonaro is going to be scary for the planet. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live?page=with:block-5bd14d5ae4b0521246c58d13#block-5bd14d5ae4b0521246c58d13) full article (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/24/planet-populists-brazil-jair-bolsonaro-environment)

A question though, the liveblog entry mentions indingenous reserves, are those national park/wildlife reserve type things or are those the equivalent of reservations (if Brazil even has those) for the Native American populations there?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Election Time
Post by: Teneb on October 28, 2018, 05:07:22 pm
Well, it's Election Day!... For Brazil. The Guardian has a liveblog up: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live

Not news for Teneb, but news for me (not surprised however...), Bolsonaro is going to be scary for the planet. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live?page=with:block-5bd14d5ae4b0521246c58d13#block-5bd14d5ae4b0521246c58d13) full article (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/24/planet-populists-brazil-jair-bolsonaro-environment)

A question though, the liveblog entry mentions indingenous reserves, are those national park/wildlife reserve type things or are those the equivalent of reservations (if Brazil even has those) for the Native American populations there?
Regarding the question: it's an area where no exploitation or settlement is allowed except by the native people assigned to that area. So I guess it's like a US reservation.

Also I am very salty right now, and very pissed with these fucking fascist-enablers yelling on the streets.

Currently pondering if I go on a redacting spree or not. 10k posts is a lot to go through.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 05:10:30 pm
Exit polls show Bolsonaro winning 56% to Haddads 44%, full election results are supposed to be released soon. Everything I've read shows this to be Brazils equivalent of 2016, though the winner is actually winning the popular vote.

I wonder if Trump will grovel at Bolsonaro like he does Putin and Kim Jong-Un :P Though I also wonder if Bolsonaro would be offended by it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 28, 2018, 06:19:40 pm
Duterte II: Electric boogaloo
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 08:01:54 pm
I'm a bit surprised Trump hasn't already tweeted congratulations towards Bolsonaro given how much alike he and Trump are.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 08:23:21 pm
Under any other US administration I'd say the CIA should assassinate Bolsonaro and install a liberal puppet government. But we don't have the moral authority.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 28, 2018, 08:24:43 pm
Under any other US administration I'd say the CIA should assassinate Bolsonaro and install a liberal puppet government. But we don't have the moral authority.
Is there any point where you have the moral authority to assassinate world leaders to install puppet governments

Seems like a dick move that will have long term consequence literally every time it has ever been done
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 08:32:40 pm
Under any other US administration I'd say the CIA should assassinate Bolsonaro and install a liberal puppet government. But we don't have the moral authority.
Is there any point where you have the moral authority to assassinate world leaders to install puppet governments

Seems like a dick move that will have long term consequence literally every time it has ever been done

We interfered in elections in postwar France and Italy to keep the communists out, and we were right. We should have interfered in the 1933 Reichstag elections, and we would have been right in invading after Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland. We should have interfered when Ukraine starved in the 1930s. We should have intervened in Syria when Assad used sarin. We would be vindicated right now if we were to invade Saudi Arabia and send the royal family to the Hague.

The fact that interventionism has so often been used for evil purposes doesn't write it off as a principle. Human rights don't exist unless somebody enforces them. Brazil has no nukes and a military that is a threat only to its own citizens.

We have the power to restore and maintain liberalism, and with the power comes the duty.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 08:34:18 pm
Under any other US administration I'd say the CIA should assassinate Bolsonaro and install a liberal puppet government. But we don't have the moral authority.
Is there any point where you have the moral authority to assassinate world leaders to install puppet governments

Seems like a dick move that will have long term consequence literally every time it has ever been done

And considering how many times we've already done it in South America....

Anyhoo, Trump already congratuiated Bolsonaro in a phone call. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live?page=with:block-5bd65f9be4b08e5e4bd5ded7#block-5bd65f9be4b08e5e4bd5ded7)

Speaking of one country overthrowing the leader of another, looks like Brazil is about ready to follow in the US's footsteps (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live?page=with:block-5bd65f9be4b08e5e4bd5ded7#block-5bd65f9be4b08e5e4bd5ded7). Though I think Trump would happily leave Bolsonaro holding the bag and let Brazil deal with the aftermath.

Honestly though, I think we should stay completely out of it (militarily wise anyway and possibly CIA stuff) and let Brazil make the same mistakes we did on their own continent.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: redwallzyl on October 28, 2018, 08:37:05 pm
Under any other US administration I'd say the CIA should assassinate Bolsonaro and install a liberal puppet government. But we don't have the moral authority.
Is there any point where you have the moral authority to assassinate world leaders to install puppet governments

Seems like a dick move that will have long term consequence literally every time it has ever been done

We interfered in elections in postwar France and Italy to keep the communists out, and we were right. We should have interfered in the 1933 Reichstag elections, and we would have been right in invading after Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland. We should have interfered when Ukraine starved in the 1930s. We should have intervened in Syria when Assad used sarin. We would be vindicated right now if we were to invade Saudi Arabia and send the royal family to the Hague.

The fact that interventionism has so often been used for evil purposes doesn't write it off as a principle. Human rights don't exist unless somebody enforces them. Brazil has no nukes and a military that is a threat only to its own citizens.

We have the power to restore and maintain liberalism, and with the power comes the duty.

You have it backwards, the US installs the fascists not the democracy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 08:40:32 pm
Under any other US administration I'd say the CIA should assassinate Bolsonaro and install a liberal puppet government. But we don't have the moral authority.
Is there any point where you have the moral authority to assassinate world leaders to install puppet governments

Seems like a dick move that will have long term consequence literally every time it has ever been done

We interfered in elections in postwar France and Italy to keep the communists out, and we were right. We should have interfered in the 1933 Reichstag elections, and we would have been right in invading after Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland. We should have interfered when Ukraine starved in the 1930s. We should have intervened in Syria when Assad used sarin. We would be vindicated right now if we were to invade Saudi Arabia and send the royal family to the Hague.

The fact that interventionism has so often been used for evil purposes doesn't write it off as a principle. Human rights don't exist unless somebody enforces them. Brazil has no nukes and a military that is a threat only to its own citizens.

We have the power to restore and maintain liberalism, and with the power comes the duty.

You have it backwards, the US installs the fascists not the democracy.

Past performance doesn't, and shouldn't, dictate future results. (Though it is one of the few small mercies of this administration that it's isolationist, because I don't even want to think about what an interventionist Trump would do.)

Honestly though, I think we should stay completely out of it (militarily wise anyway and possibly CIA stuff) and let Brazil make the same mistakes we did on their own continent.

Glad to know the thousands who're going to be killed under the Bolsonaro régime can be comforted by the fact that other people minded their own business.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 08:45:59 pm
Have you seen our recent attempts at intervention? Particularily the 'invade a country' part.

Yes, past performance doesn't and shouldn't dictate future results, but if you're consistently screwing it up, maybe you should consider changing how it's being done.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 08:48:07 pm
Honestly though, I think we should stay completely out of it (militarily wise anyway and possibly CIA stuff) and let Brazil make the same mistakes we did on their own continent.

Glad to know the thousands who're going to be killed under the Bolsonaro régime can be comforted by the fact that other people minded their own business.

I was referring to joining into a Brazillian war or coup on Venezuela.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 28, 2018, 08:49:01 pm
We interfered in elections in postwar France and Italy to keep the communists out, and we were right. We should have interfered in the 1933 Reichstag elections, and we would have been right in invading after Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland. We should have interfered when Ukraine starved in the 1930s. We should have intervened in Syria when Assad used sarin. We would be vindicated right now if we were to invade Saudi Arabia and send the royal family to the Hague.
The fact that interventionism has so often been used for evil purposes doesn't write it off as a principle. Human rights don't exist unless somebody enforces them. Brazil has no nukes and a military that is a threat only to its own citizens.
We have the power to restore and maintain liberalism, and with the power comes the duty.
America did intervene in Syria, Iraq and Libya, to the point where it's a fucking meme at this point where you can continually destabilise countries and install a foreign regime backed by US military power and intelligence in the name of freedom. Because nothing says liberalism quite like reverting a democratic vote through the CIA.
Old democracies are not made overnight. It takes stability, practice and generations. The USA has the power to stop blowing up everyone, and with that power comes the duty to stop blowing everyone up. Living under the shadow of American hegemony will merely create more millions who are disillusioned with American liberalism without having altered the fundamentals which caused them to disagree in the first place, completely disregarding whether disagreeing is a just mandate to execute whatever foreigners you want. The "everyday until you like it" approach does not work, especially when you're killing leaders who:
1. Have popular support.
2. Get more popular for surviving assassination attempts.
To replace them with a leader drawn from the previous failure of an establishment, WHO CREATED the mess which has made Bolsonaro popular to begin with. Not every problem can be solved with more bombs and assassination, American investment would do more to help create a strong Brazilian middle class than blowing up all of the leaders they support would ever do in a thousand lifetimes
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 08:58:43 pm
We interfered in elections in postwar France and Italy to keep the communists out, and we were right. We should have interfered in the 1933 Reichstag elections, and we would have been right in invading after Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland. We should have interfered when Ukraine starved in the 1930s. We should have intervened in Syria when Assad used sarin. We would be vindicated right now if we were to invade Saudi Arabia and send the royal family to the Hague.
The fact that interventionism has so often been used for evil purposes doesn't write it off as a principle. Human rights don't exist unless somebody enforces them. Brazil has no nukes and a military that is a threat only to its own citizens.
We have the power to restore and maintain liberalism, and with the power comes the duty.
America did intervene in Syria, Iraq and Libya, to the point where it's a fucking meme at this point where you can continually destabilise countries and install a foreign regime backed by US military power and intelligence in the name of freedom. Because nothing says liberalism quite like reverting a democratic vote through the CIA.
Old democracies are not made overnight. It takes stability, practice and generations. The USA has the power to stop blowing up everyone, and with that power comes the duty to stop blowing everyone up. Living under the shadow of American hegemony will merely create more millions who are disillusioned with American liberalism without having altered the fundamentals which caused them to disagree in the first place, completely disregarding whether disagreeing is a just mandate to execute whatever foreigners you want. The "everyday until you like it" approach does not work, especially when you're killing leaders who:
1. Have popular support.
2. Get more popular for surviving assassination attempts.
To replace them with a leader drawn from the previous failure of an establishment, WHO CREATED the mess which has made Bolsonaro popular to begin with. Not every problem can be solved with more bombs and assassination, American investment would do more to help create a strong Brazilian middle class than blowing up all of the leaders they support would ever do in a thousand lifetimes

Counterpoint: Germany after the war.

I agree that we've tended to make a mess of things recently, as in Iraq and Afghanistan. But I think the experience of postwar Europe should tell us that the real problem wasn't that we intervened too much but that we were unwilling to commit to the intervention. Liberalism won in Germany, in large part, because we enforced liberalism and engaged in ruthless denazification of the country's institutions. We didn't let Germany try Nazism again after the war. That's a good thing.

What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?

(And of course, we poured vast amounts of money into Germany after the war, too. We should have done that in Afghanistan. Nothing makes people like you more than free money; a $200/month welfare check per Afghan household in villages that don't harbor insurgents and treat their women fairly would have been a cheaper, and more lasting, way of getting people to like us than trying to wage a guerilla campaign.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Reelya on October 28, 2018, 09:08:58 pm
Invading Germany when they remilitarized the Rhineland wouldn't have made much sense. The Germans and British were basically peas in a pod in WWI.

Wannabe dictators were coming to power all the time, but very few of them launched world-conquest attempts. Not even Stalin did that. So, while we have hindsight that stopping Hitler in particular could have avoided WWII, nobody alive at the time would have any reason to think that stopping Hitler was more important than stopping any particular other dictator.

Quote
What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?

"be liberal or die" that sort of thing? What an oxymoron.

"Forced liberalism" in Afghanistan would entail bringing in enough westerners to enact a complete martial-law government, with massive amounts of security personnel, and a surveillance state. The end result isn't "forced liberalism" at all despite whatever intentions were in place, the end result would be a technocratic surveillance police state with capitalism.

the Westerners you'd need to bring in to run something like that are in fact the reason this "forced liberalism" thing doesn't work. The job description of having complete power over a captive population in fact attracts rapists and murderers to run the place, and you get secret prisons, torture and the like, with a "liberal" facade.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 09:15:37 pm
I agree, a large part of it was an unwillingness to stick to it, instead, in Iraq and Afghanistan we were 'Mission Accomplished! Lets go home!'.

However, there are two major differences from Germany vs trying to do the same to Afghanistan:

1. Germany is culturally closer to the US than Afghanistan is to the US, which means that there is a much bigger hurdle to overcome and more opportunities to screw up.

2. We weren't alone in fixing up Germany, the UK and France had big roles here too. I know we have NATO and all that, but it's not the same as having a country be fully or near fully commited to it.

Anyhow, we're massively derailing the South America politics thread, though I guess the interventionism is relevant?

Looks like some army guys decided to hold an impromptu military parade in the city/town of Niteroi. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/28/brazil-election-2018-second-round-of-voting-closes-as-bolsonaro-eyes-the-presidency-live?page=with:block-5bd66968e4b05fc14b59ee4b#block-5bd66968e4b05fc14b59ee4b)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 09:19:16 pm
Quote
What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?

"be liberal or die" that sort of thing? What an oxymoron.

"Forced liberalism" in Afghanistan would entail bringing in enough westerners to enact a complete martial-law government, with massive amounts of security personnel, and a surveillance state. The end result isn't "forced liberalism" at all despite whatever intentions were in place, the end result would be a technocratic surveillance police state with capitalism.

Do you believe that if an American head of household keeps his daughter cloistered in the basement without an education and marries her off at 10, that he should be allowed to do so without any intervention?

Why should the moral reality change when you move from the US to Afghanistan?

The US has the power to protect the weak and innocent from the capricious use of state power by evil men. If human rights mean anything, they mean that the power implies the duty. Again: we enforced liberalism at gunpoint in postwar Germany. Were we wrong?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 09:22:21 pm
Quote
What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?

"be liberal or die" that sort of thing? What an oxymoron.

"Forced liberalism" in Afghanistan would entail bringing in enough westerners to enact a complete martial-law government, with massive amounts of security personnel, and a surveillance state. The end result isn't "forced liberalism" at all despite whatever intentions were in place, the end result would be a technocratic surveillance police state with capitalism.

Do you believe that if an American head of household keeps his daughter cloistered in the basement without an education and marries her off at 10, that he should be allowed to do so without any intervention?

Why should the moral reality change when you move from the US to Afghanistan?

The US has the power to protect the weak and innocent from the capricious use of state power by evil men. If human rights mean anything, they mean that the power implies the duty. Again: we enforced liberalism at gunpoint in postwar Germany. Were we wrong?

Do you think a military solution is THE solution to use everytime? Like our only solution should be to bomb and invade the heck out of others?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 09:25:34 pm
Quote
What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?

"be liberal or die" that sort of thing? What an oxymoron.

"Forced liberalism" in Afghanistan would entail bringing in enough westerners to enact a complete martial-law government, with massive amounts of security personnel, and a surveillance state. The end result isn't "forced liberalism" at all despite whatever intentions were in place, the end result would be a technocratic surveillance police state with capitalism.

Do you believe that if an American head of household keeps his daughter cloistered in the basement without an education and marries her off at 10, that he should be allowed to do so without any intervention?

Why should the moral reality change when you move from the US to Afghanistan?

The US has the power to protect the weak and innocent from the capricious use of state power by evil men. If human rights mean anything, they mean that the power implies the duty. Again: we enforced liberalism at gunpoint in postwar Germany. Were we wrong?

Do you think a military solution is THE solution to use everytime? Like our only solution should be to bomb and invade the heck out of others?

No, particularly when we're talking about countries with nukes, where the calculus completely changes. But a military solution was the right solution in Afghanistan. The occupation was executed poorly, but that doesn't refute the concept. The question to ask from Afghanistan isn't "did this refute interventionism?" but "knowing what we know now, if we could travel back to September 12, 2001, how would we intervene differently?"

I do think a military solution is probably justified in Saudi Arabia, between 9/11, Yemen, the Khashoggi incident, and tampering with global warming action--every minute the house of Saud continues to rule is a black mark on the West. In Iran it's trickier because the average citizen is pretty pro-American and the régime, while it commits atrocities, could be far worse. The solution to Iran is to keep sanction pressure up, but not to isolate the people, and let everybody know that as soon as they decide to to liberalize or have a revolution, they'll get all the help they want and be inducted into the free world immediately.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 09:27:53 pm
Probably smack Pakistan around diplomatically and make them cough up Bin Laden.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Reelya on October 28, 2018, 09:28:38 pm
There is big difference. In Germany and Japan, they recruited the local establishment to run things. That way, there was continuity, and the previous low-level administration staff of the losing states were able to be recruited and have a future in the new Germany and Japan.

Whereas in Iraq "de-ba'athification" basically wrecked the whole plan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De-Ba%27athification

Quote
The policy had a deep impact on post-combat operations Iraq. It is estimated that 50,000 civil government employees, as well as the all organizations and their affiliates listed in Annex A of Order No. 2, were affected and removed from their positions as a result of de-Ba'athification. Another estimate places the number at "100,000 civil servants, doctors, and teachers," were forcibly removed from the public sector due to low-level affiliation.
...
Specifically, the Iraqi military was affected by Order No. 2. The Order called for the complete dissolution of the Iraqi military, and reportedly resulted in the unemployment and loss of pensions of approximately 500,000 individuals. The figures regarding this level of unemployment are approximately 27%. Many critics argue that this order specifically spurred the development of an armed insurgency.

The armed forces of Iraq in the Iraq war is only listed as 375,000 troops. People in Iraq don't join the army because they're monsters, but for the same reasons that people in any nation join the army. All up, somewhere just shy of a million people were barred from employment out of a nation of about 30 million. 1 in 30. It stands to reason that just about every Iraqi would know at least one person who was affected by this order. This is why ideas like "detalibanizing" Afghanistan wouldn't work either.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: FearfulJesuit on October 28, 2018, 09:32:30 pm
Probably smack Pakistan around diplomatically and make them cough up Bin Laden.

Yeah, Pakistan is a longer-term problem. They knew where Bin Laden was, they've been harboring and funding insurgents to fight a proxy war against us, and they shouldn't be allowed to have nukes any more than your average twelve-year-old should be allowed to own a gun.

Backing Reelya's post, too. It wasn't the intervention that was the problem. It was the execution. We could have done things much better and didn't.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Reelya on October 28, 2018, 09:37:46 pm
I think you're reading too much into it to believe Pakistan is fighting a proxy war "against us".

Pakistan's interest in Afghanistan was about securing their regional influence against other regional actors such as India and Iran. They don't really give a shit about USA.

If they were hiding bin laden it was probably because they didn't want him captured and talking about ISI operations in Afghanistan from the 1980s onwards, but they were equally scared that they'd come under terrorist attacks if they tried to kill him. Osama's main goals were always the destruction of the dictatorships in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. USA was provoked into starting wars in hope of dragging USA allies Saudi Arabia and Egypt to their destruction (it worked for Egypt).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on October 28, 2018, 09:42:46 pm
It was 'against us' in the sense of 'working against our goals'.

Anyhow, Teneb would probably like the Latin American politics thread back....
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Magistrum on October 28, 2018, 09:50:27 pm
Ah... It was so nice making fun of Americans, it doesn't seem so fun now.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: misko27 on October 29, 2018, 01:57:34 am
ITT: American Imperialism in Latinthread. When will Ameripol respect the sovereignty and independence of Latinthread?


OTT: The NY Times has a little compilation of a few quotes from the new president. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/world/americas/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-quotes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) I'm going to refrain from directly quoting the article here, but there are some... "interesting" quotes from Brazil's new leader. He may well give Trump, and Duterte, a run for their money.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Reelya on October 29, 2018, 02:13:43 am
Yeah, probably a good call, that. It would be hard to summarize that in a way that did it justice.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on October 29, 2018, 03:52:19 am
ITT: American Imperialism in Latinthread. When will Ameripol respect the sovereignty and independence of Latinthread?
Because, when you get down to it, we're all Americans.

Yeah, probably a good call, that. It would be hard to summarize that in a way that did it justice.
Looks like we've finally ended up in Bolsonaro World.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 29, 2018, 05:12:29 am
Quote
What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?

"be liberal or die" that sort of thing? What an oxymoron.

"Forced liberalism" in Afghanistan would entail bringing in enough westerners to enact a complete martial-law government, with massive amounts of security personnel, and a surveillance state. The end result isn't "forced liberalism" at all despite whatever intentions were in place, the end result would be a technocratic surveillance police state with capitalism.



The US has the power to protect the weak and innocent from the capricious use of state power by evil men.
Get off your high horse. The US doesnt have the power to protect the weak and innocent from the capricious (crapicious?) use of state power by evil men in the US, let alone elsewhere in the world.  All your examples are based on selective and  interested readings of history. And you vastly overrate your contry's capabilities, but I'm guessing this one is standard on anyone letting patriotism cloud his judgement (which unfortunately is not rare in current international politics)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 29, 2018, 06:26:17 am
Counterpoint: Germany after the war.
After the war the German state ceased to exist and its leadership was dead, missing, suicided or executed. There was no choice regarding a dissolution of the German state; it was already dead. You can't compare destabilising a state in peace time with killing most of their men, their leadership, partitioning them between France, UK, USA, Russia and later themselves, with a continued military garrison by aforementioned powers - and expect success from two wildly different scenarios. Germany lost in total war; subsequently it meant that their country suffered the consequences gravely. 25-50% of their houses were destroyed by allied bombing campaigns, their transportation infrastructure and factories were ruined beyond function, they were suffering from rampant inflation, acute food shortages and communist occupation. West Germany could be made in the image of the Western Democracies because all opposition to such proposals died in the Second World War and West Germany was economically, politically and militarily in the hands of allied powers, later, in the hands of German institutions aligned with the West, with a supportive academia willing to instill a national guilt so potent they became synonymous with the origin of primeval evil in the new international mythology. This is not an example you should desire to replicate in Brazil, or anywhere else for that matter lmao.

I agree that we've tended to make a mess of things recently, as in Iraq and Afghanistan. But I think the experience of postwar Europe should tell us that the real problem wasn't that we intervened too much but that we were unwilling to commit to the intervention. Liberalism won in Germany, in large part, because we enforced liberalism and engaged in ruthless denazification of the country's institutions. We didn't let Germany try Nazism again after the war. That's a good thing.
Please for the love of God do not contribute to the plague of idiots using such rhetoric to justify telling people how to think
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
It makes me want to yell fuck off you mangy dinosaurs, back to the hell pits of buzzfeed morgoth you soulless invertebrate potassium-deficient supine mongrels, dare you tell me what to think before I've even read your harvard decay? Lord knows if it's just something they do for search engine optimisation or if the titles are made by algorithms but it's getting out of control. And that's a good thing fucking crime against humanity

What if we'd engaged in a campaign of detalibanization and enforced liberalism outside of Kabul?
(And of course, we poured vast amounts of money into Germany after the war, too. We should have done that in Afghanistan. Nothing makes people like you more than free money; a $200/month welfare check per Afghan household in villages that don't harbor insurgents and treat their women fairly would have been a cheaper, and more lasting, way of getting people to like us than trying to wage a guerilla campaign.)
Failed in Iraq and the US did pour vast amounts of money into Afghanistan.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Forcing people to be liberals at gunpoint makes no fucking sense, it's just an obvious excuse to maintain hegemony over the lesser races. 120 years ago as today, spreading freedom and liberty by the bayonet everyday until they like it. But how can one have liberty if it is only the choice to vote for American approved candidates? This really activates my almonds, old habits do die hard it seems

ITT: American Imperialism in Latinthread. When will Ameripol respect the sovereignty and independence of Latinthread?
It is the fate of all politics threads to eventually become Ameripol threads
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on October 29, 2018, 06:35:27 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Ignorance so nice they viced it twice.


What's the one in the upper left? It almost looks like another "Oppression" or "Superstition" or maybe even "Corruption", but it's too small for me to make out.

I'm gonna go with "Crustacean", another ill of the developing world.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 29, 2018, 06:47:53 am
It's another corruption, or else the menace of crusteaceanism
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: SaberToothTiger on October 29, 2018, 07:35:41 am
We're not your fucking monkeys, FJ. It's our way of life and you've no inherent right to tell us what to do so kindly fuck right off.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: misko27 on October 29, 2018, 12:53:15 pm
Guys, this is important enough that it shouldn't be derailed by a one-off comment on interventionism which is completely irrelevant given the particular circumstances of the case (namely, no intervention is coming).

Again, I really must re-suggest this article, especially for anyone unsure of who this Bolsanaro fellow is: it's short, but it has a lot of very interesting quotes from the man himself. And as I said, i could easily quote just one of the snippets from the article in order to shock the thread into being on-topic, but given the article I'd rather not... But I will just quote the entire thing if people won't get on topic. 
The NY Times has a little compilation of a few quotes from the new president. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/world/americas/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-quotes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) I'm going to refrain from directly quoting the article here, but there are some... "interesting" quotes from Brazil's new leader. He may well give Trump, and Duterte, a run for their money.
The outrage at a purely hypothetical American intervention is misdirected when a much more relevant - and arguably, much more concerning - situation is already a reality.

I've heard suggestions that this is the most right-wing leader to be democratically elected in South America; certainly in the modern period, but perhaps even "ever".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: SaberToothTiger on October 29, 2018, 03:04:54 pm
This is not some "one off comment". Wer're dealing with a prolonged argument in which one person kindly suggests subjugating every other until they learn to be a good obedient slave and the other kindly disagrees. Is Bolsonaro filth? Yes. However, Brazilians elected him and unless democracy is only cool when it's your motherfucker who wins, then you might want to drop the hypocrisy and work around the wannabe dictator. Is it good that he won? No! But unless you want to finally drop the act of pretending you give a shit about the people you claim you want to liberate then you should watch what you're saying.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: misko27 on October 29, 2018, 03:55:22 pm
This is not some "one off comment".
Yes it is.
Quote
Wer're dealing with a prolonged argument in which one person kindly suggests subjugating every other until they learn to be a good obedient slave and the other kindly disagrees.
Indeed, and that person suggesting subjugation is named Bolsonaro. Did you read the article? About the purging? I really sugest reading the article.
Quote
Is Bolsonaro filth? Yes. However, Brazilians elected him and unless democracy is only cool when it's your motherfucker who wins, then you might want to drop the hypocrisy and work around the wannabe dictator.
My hypocrisy? Are you confusing me with FearfulJesuit? I'm not saying that the results should be invalidated, and only one person here suggested intervention; even he suggested it in a way that you would agree with and in a way that shows that it's not a real consideration (i.e. "The US doesn't have the moral authority", the only disagreement is whether the US ever has the moral authority).
Quote
Is it good that he won? No! But unless you want to finally drop the act of pretending you give a shit about the people you claim you want to liberate then you should watch what you're saying.
Let's compare some things here, shall we? I want to move away from intervention-talk, and I can give many reasons as to why:
In conclusion: this is the equivalent of going into a thread on Syria and loudly denouncing US involvement when the US is one of the least involved sides in the region, far-less involved than Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Lebanon (through Hezbollah), Iraq, and others. It indicates that the speaker doesn't actually care much about Syria and its sovereignty (since they are discussing the least offender among many), but cares a lot about the US. This is the Latin American Politics thread, so if for only that reason alone, you are off-topic. It's a valuable discussion to have, but not to have here. I tried to jumpstart the conversation in Ameripol so that the discussion, (which I think is an important one!), can have its space, but all it does here is distract from the actual election to what is an indefensible digression. Real people in the real world will have to live with Bolsonaro, so prosecuting an intervention which will not come is bizarre. Let me rephrase: can you explain to me why you are privileging discussion of historical and hypothetical American Intervention in Latin America over discussion of what is actually happening in South America today? And how can you claim that I "don't give a shit about the people" of South America when you only seem to want to complain about the North?

I mean I just want to discuss Bolsonaro here! Is that too much to ask? I want to hear reactions to those quotes by Brazil's newest President! I know Reelya read the article, who else? Are you telling me no one else in this thread has an opinion on “I would not rape you because you are not worthy of it.” (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/28/world/americas/brazil-president-jair-bolsonaro-quotes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage)? Or “In memory of Col. Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra, the terror of Dilma Rousseff … I vote YES.”? Or "I am in favor of torture — you know that. And the people are in favor of it, too." Quotes that are even worse in context! Someone, please, work with me here.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Egan_BW on October 29, 2018, 04:12:34 pm
I read it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: SaberToothTiger on October 29, 2018, 04:20:58 pm
I read it too, but there is no point in discussing them, seeing as I don't think there is anyone here who agrees with them and we all know what the problem with them is.

I'm not going to continue the discussion here, it's not the place for it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on October 29, 2018, 04:28:33 pm
I'm pretty sure he was indeed mistaking you for FearfulJesuit, or rather that you were mistaking yourself for FJ.


As for something actually on-topic, really, the whole thing's just a bit too absurdist at the moment... I think people are likely still in shock at having to deal with the outcome. It'll bounce back a bit once he gets into office and starts officially fucking things up, but as for right now it's all just a little too alien to actually acknowledge that he won.

Guess we'll see how much he actually backs up his comments about imprisoning/exiling his political opponents, eh?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: SaberToothTiger on October 29, 2018, 04:32:41 pm
I'm pretty sure I wasn't mistaking anyone for anyone so that's that.

What's supposed to be shocking about the outcome? This is after for the last two years the exact same scenario played out in both Europe and the US.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Doomblade187 on October 29, 2018, 04:34:37 pm
My NY times free articles ran out, so I can't read the article, but I worry what will happen regarding LGBT rights. Is Bolsonaro backed by the christian evangelical right?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on October 29, 2018, 04:42:30 pm
My NY times free articles ran out, so I can't read the article, but I worry what will happen regarding LGBT rights. Is Bolsonaro backed by the christian evangelical right?
I'm pretty sure Bolsonaro is actually really for LGBT rights. I mean, he doesn't want any LGBT left, so he must want them to have rights instead.

But yeah, for a fellow making statements about how he'd rather his son die in a car crash than be gay, and how homosexual people lower property values, it's not looking too good for the GSRM.

Provided, of course, that he ever gets anything done. He apparently doesn't have much of a track record for actually doing things. Hopefully that won't change.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 29, 2018, 04:55:58 pm
I'm pretty sure I wasn't mistaking anyone for anyone so that's that.

What's supposed to be shocking about the outcome? This is after for the last two years the exact same scenario played out in both Europe and the US.
Pretty much. I expect Bolsonaro to get ousted after a corruption scandal in a few years, and then the cycle of liberality, corruption, authoritarianism, revolution, terror, authoritarianism, liberality, corruption and so forth will continue for generations to come. I wonder whether Bolsonaro is going to stand firm on his anti-China rhetoric though
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 29, 2018, 05:52:35 pm
Fun fact: Bolsonaro's party only has like 10% of the seats in the Brazilian parliament. He can't deal with the left who hate him. So he will have to rely on a coalition of center right parties called the Centrão which are likely not exactly nice but aren't rabid fascists like Bolsonaro, so he will likely have to tone it down.

The really distressing bit is the amount of people willing to vote a man that voices supports for such barbarities.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Teneb on October 29, 2018, 06:02:50 pm
Fun fact: Bolsonaro's party only has like 10% of the seats in the Brazilian parliament. He can't deal with the left who hate him. So he will have to rely on a coalition of center right parties called the Centrão which are likely not exactly nice but aren't rabid fascists like Bolsonaro, so he will likely have to tone it down.
Currently. This election (which was also for congressfolk, both state and federal, and also governor) means that his party will be the second biggest... after PT.

All the old oligarchs got booted out, to my actual surprise.

Meanwhile, mr Acting President Totally-Not-A-Vampire has basically said "I don't even pretend to give a fuck anymore" and spends his time saying platitudes as he whiles away the last months of his mandate.

EDIT: Also, I shall refrain from redacting for now. If things get worse I'll do it, but right now I'd rather not be a coward.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Magistrum on October 30, 2018, 01:18:19 pm
Poor Temer, spent years trying to become the most hated man in Brazil just for Bozo to come and take it from him in three months...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: hector13 on November 23, 2018, 10:53:21 pm
So...

Brazil has a spare, what, 25k doctors? Just milling around to replace all the Cubans that left?

Doctors must not get paid well if the supply is that good.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Magistrum on November 27, 2018, 05:40:22 pm
Well, pay is way lower in the inner cities, and nobody wants to work for the rural areas because of bad infrastructure, equipment, and frequent "calotes", that is, they simply don't pay the workers sometimes.
I wouldn't be surprised if the recent move to the rural areas is mostly for cultural reasons instead of sudden realization that the pay is good enough for them after all.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: GPeter on January 02, 2019, 07:59:30 am
To be honest, I'm quite optimistic about our new government. Sure, we're all surrounded by fear, but at least it's a change, we have been ruled by the same party for over 14 years, it would have been 16 years if it was not by the Impeachment. And overall, we've had MASSIVE changes in the congress, lots of new faces around, lots of old faces leaving. While I myself was never a fan of the left wing, Bolsonaro was never my first option(All hopes for João Amoedo in 2022). But I do hope he will do a great job, after all, it's my home country, it's where I live!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Teneb on January 02, 2019, 08:06:23 am
To be honest, I'm quite optimistic about our new government. Sure, we're all surrounded by fear, but at least it's a change, we have been ruled by the same party for over 14 years, it would have been 16 years if it was not by the Impeachment. And overall, we've had MASSIVE changes in the congress, lots of new faces around, lots of old faces leaving. While I myself was never a fan of the left wing, Bolsonaro was never my first option(All hopes for João Amoedo in 2022). But I do hope he will do a great job, after all, it's my home country, it's where I live!
Meh. Sure, one party in power forever is bad, but... a fascist is not that great either.

Hell, his innauguration speech was full of hypocrisy and bulshit. Such as (paraphrasing): "I'll respect freedom of religion. I'll also restore our christian-judeo tradition", or "I'll stop the spread of ideologies" followed swiftly by "I'll restore brazilian society to traditional conservative values" (because that's totally not an ideology, no sir). Also such gems like building a society free of prejudice despite having often spoken in public about how blacks and women and gays are inferiors. Also his gun fetish (despite having once being robbed and *gasp* not reacting at all! (and having his gun stolen as part of that)).

So yeah, I'm salty a fascist domestic terrorist (see earlier in the thread, or just google how he was removed from the army) with a fetish for torture is now the president.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on January 02, 2019, 08:09:55 am
To be honest, I'm quite optimistic about our new government. Sure, we're all surrounded by fear, but at least it's a change, we have been ruled by the same party for over 14 years, it would have been 16 years if it was not by the Impeachment. And overall, we've had MASSIVE changes in the congress, lots of new faces around, lots of old faces leaving. While I myself was never a fan of the left wing, Bolsonaro was never my first option(All hopes for João Amoedo in 2022). But I do hope he will do a great job, after all, it's my home country, it's where I live!
Meh. Sure, one party in power forever is bad, but... a fascist is not that great either.

Hell, his innauguration speech was full of hypocrisy and bulshit. Such as (paraphrasing): "I'll respect freedom of religion. I'll also restore our christian-judeo tradition", or "I'll stop the spread of ideologies" followed swiftly by "I'll restore brazilian society to traditional conservative values" (because that's totally not an ideology, no sir). Also such gems like building a society free of prejudice despite having often spoken in public about how blacks and women and gays are inferiors. Also his gun fetish (despite having once being robbed and *gasp* not reacting at all! (and having his gun stolen as part of that)).

So yeah, I'm salty a fascist domestic terrorist (see earlier in the thread, or just google how he was removed from the army) with a fetish for torture is now the president.

Look on the bright side... At least he's not a woman!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: smjjames on January 02, 2019, 10:57:03 am
I don't get your joke kagus....
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: wierd on January 02, 2019, 11:09:14 am
I'd say it is a combination of these SMBC themes.

1) (https://www.smbc-comics.com/comics/1508159624-20171016%20(1).png)
2) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DuUgXQ9W0AIKMkM.jpg)
and perhaps..
3) (https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d7/28/d1/d728d1d08f1bd6f244f6436ba8baa18c.png)


EG, the joke is that there is a predominantly misogynist population that accedes that there is some potential for contradiction there, but it is OK, because that brand of contradiction reinforces their own biases, which they view as obvious, and thus truth-- Whereas if the candidate were female, well--- that's just straight out wrong. Obviously.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Magistrum on January 02, 2019, 12:08:42 pm
Meh. Sure, one party in power forever is bad, but... a fascist is not that great either.
Oh, it's actually pretty much independent from who the president is, every time a new president is elected he starts with approval around 80%.
It's tradition here in Brazil, and they always leave government risking being lynched by a mob if seen outside, with approval ratings well under 20%(Temer has the record I think? 3% at the lowest?) . The only exception so far has been Squid and Dilma's first term, but he is in jail and her name is in the gutter now.

That said, they did hold the presidency for very long, but no party has ever had a majority in Brazil's government legislative, due to they way we run our elections that force variety and proportional representation. That was supposed to hold on extremism and other undesirable policy, but ended up incentivizing inter-party vote buying via bribes and cabinet positions.

I still haven't got over how many people voted for Pocket in the first turn, there is simply no excuse for all his actions, views and statements, and everyone who voted in him is either ignorant or complicit.

But I do hope he will do a great job, after all, it's my home country, it's where I live!
We all hope. Seriously, it was fun laughing at america, but schadenfreude only works when it's the amiguinho getting boned.

EG, the joke is that there is a predominantly misogynist population that accedes that there is some potential for contradiction there, but it is OK, because that brand of contradiction reinforces their own biases, which they view as obvious, and thus truth-- Whereas if the candidate were female, well--- that's just straight out wrong. Obviously.
There are many in Brazil who think Dilma's impeachment was due to misogyny since she didn't actually committ any crime, and it probably has some to it, but I think it's more likely that she was impeached as a appeasing move to the mobs and as a way to get someone willing to dissolve operation lava-jato, since she refused to do it. Too bad, president Fear didn't do it either, so they got screwed anyway.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: GPeter on January 02, 2019, 02:26:01 pm
Squid

Pocket

president Fear
I just love how you put their names in English...


Meh. Sure, one party in power forever is bad, but... a fascist is not that great either.
I sure have this fear, but I have this belief, that even if he actually tries to do something like that as a law or something related, he doesn't rule alone, and there are people up there who really wan't to see the country get better, and fascism is not the option, so these people will vote against projects that may have such impact. Sure it couldd totally be me being Naive, but I like to believe it...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Magistrum on January 03, 2019, 08:15:48 pm
I just love how you put their names in English...
I'm still mad at Dilma for not giving me something easy to work with. At least my state got governor Milk.

Did anyone saw the clip of the new minister of human rights in Brazil talking about "It's a new era in Brazil, boys dress blue and girls dress pink!"
It's incredible. There is even a very enthusiastic idiot waving an Israeli flag.
And this is after the stuff about Jesus climbing a guava tree.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: GPeter on January 03, 2019, 09:36:29 pm
boys dress blue and girls dress pink!"

Female minister says that while dressed in a blue dress
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: redwallzyl on January 03, 2019, 10:34:54 pm
I give Brazil 1 year before full dictatorship. The Amazon Rainforest was good while it lasted.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Doomblade187 on January 04, 2019, 12:55:42 am
boys dress blue and girls dress pink!"

Female minister says that while dressed in a blue dress
Oh god the irony.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on January 04, 2019, 03:57:42 am
I give Brazil 1 year before full dictatorship. The Amazon Rainforest was good while it lasted.
We must save those poor savages from their own territory and culture.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: wierd on January 04, 2019, 04:13:33 am
I give Brazil 1 year before full dictatorship. The Amazon Rainforest was good while it lasted.
We must save those poor savages from their own territory and culture.

More, "Our terrible agricultural practices necessitate MOAR logging! The exotic hard woods of the rainforest command a high international price point, and we have to expand our economy AND feed our citizenry!  How else do you expect us to pay for all the erosion control projects we need!" (because our agricultural practices result in truly horrendous levels of topsoil erosion and outright landslides, once the biomass holding it in place is removed)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Kagus on January 04, 2019, 04:21:02 am
Sure, but that doesn't sound quite as marketable as "Bringing God civilization and freedom to the heathens natives!"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: GPeter on January 04, 2019, 06:04:35 am
Bolsonaro's gorvern is bringing me fear, and some of tha names along him are complete idiots (see female minister above), but on the other hand, there are a few names I'm quite optimistic about, like, the Science and Technology minister, Marcos Pontes, c'mon, he's a brazilian ASTRONAUT! He's gotta be smart...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: Teneb on January 04, 2019, 08:05:35 am
Bolsonaro's gorvern is bringing me fear, and some of tha names along him are complete idiots (see female minister above), but on the other hand, there are a few names I'm quite optimistic about, like, the Science and Technology minister, Marcos Pontes, c'mon, he's a brazilian ASTRONAUT! He's gotta be smart...
Being an astronaut does not mean he's a good administrator of a continent-sized country's research efforts.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 04, 2019, 09:13:12 am
While completely true, it is also true of every single education in the world, even including a degree in administration of a continent-sized country's research efforts.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 04, 2019, 09:24:04 am
Well, a good dose of normalcy then, every government should be worthy some "cautious optimism" if it is anything near respectable.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Teneb on January 04, 2019, 09:24:29 am
While completely true, it is also true of every single education in the world, even including a degree in administration of a continent-sized country's research efforts.
Fair enough. I'm just glad it was him because it was not some of the other picks. Too bad education went to the most reactionary philosopher I've ever seen.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 04, 2019, 10:33:27 am
Bolsonaro's gorvern is bringing me fear, and some of tha names along him are complete idiots (see female minister above), but on the other hand, there are a few names I'm quite optimistic about, like, the Science and Technology minister, Marcos Pontes, c'mon, he's a brazilian ASTRONAUT! He's gotta be smart...
Being an astronaut does not mean he's a good administrator of a continent-sized country's research efforts.

You know what all of that also sounds like? Trump. Welcome to Mr. Bones wild ride.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Press F to pay respects
Post by: GPeter on January 04, 2019, 11:15:18 am
Bolsonaro's gorvern is bringing me fear, and some of tha names along him are complete idiots (see female minister above), but on the other hand, there are a few names I'm quite optimistic about, like, the Science and Technology minister, Marcos Pontes, c'mon, he's a brazilian ASTRONAUT! He's gotta be smart...
Being an astronaut does not mean he's a good administrator of a continent-sized country's research efforts.

I'm pretty sure NASA wouldn't accept someone who doesn't know what he's doing... Plus, He's formed (is that right? Is that how you say it in english?) in public management...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 04, 2019, 11:57:57 am
Not a native English speaker either, but they usually refer to it as possessing the relevant degree.

So it would be something like "He has a Public Management Bachelor".

Anyone can check this for us?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 04, 2019, 02:01:09 pm
That Amazon thing is definitely going to be the source of a lot of conflict.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: A Thing on January 04, 2019, 03:51:53 pm
Not a native English speaker either, but they usually refer to it as possessing the relevant degree.

So it would be something like "He has a Public Management Bachelor".

Anyone can check this for us?

Yeah that sounds right. Either that or "He has a degree in public management."
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 04, 2019, 03:53:27 pm
That Amazon thing is definitely going to be the source of a lot of conflict.

Yeah, because of our lackluster preservation policy Norway announced they are cutting 200 million BRL of aid for our deforestation prevention effort.

Please do not abandon us in our moment of need.

Got ninja'd: thanks A thing. :D
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Teneb on January 04, 2019, 04:02:36 pm
That Amazon thing is definitely going to be the source of a lot of conflict.

Yeah, because of our lackluster preservation policy Norway announced they are cutting 200 million BRL of aid for our deforestation prevention effort.

Please do not abandon us in our moment of need.

Got ninja'd: thanks A thing. :D
But we must[/i] expand the economy and civilize the natives!!!!1um

/s


That 200m ain't going to change much when the big landowner senators promise their votes. Hell, the old environment ministry was folded into agriculture. Fascists gonna fasci.

You know what the joke is, though? They're gonna deforest the Amazon, reap maybe five years of harvests, and then... notice nothing is growing anymore because the Amazon soil is utter shit and the jungle only exists because its made of masochist plants that like that shit.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 04, 2019, 04:38:13 pm
BTW going off the current value of the Venezuelan currency (from Venezuelan exchange sites), inflation since the changeover is about 1/10th of what IMF was predicting. (sources included)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-03/venezuela-economic-collapse-has-lessons-for-america-s-socialists

The IMF was predicting 1 million percent inflation by the end of 2018, and recently boosted that to a prediction of 1.37 million percent for the end of 2018. They're also predicting 10 million percent inflation by the end of 2019.

However, actual data seems to indicate that the inflation rate is about 1/10th of the IMF prediction since the August currency reforms, and the general trend is downward, not upward. Sure, it's still really bad, but the inflation rate is easing off a little, not increasing at ever-faster rates as the IMF is saying.

https://dolartoday.com/ (4.5 months since the new currency launched at 60 bolivars to the USD, the rate is 840 now. That's definitely not "1.37 million % inflation".

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-venezuela-cafe-con-leche-index/ (Bloomberg's interactive thingy shows that in more recent month, the inflation rate is lower than it was a year ago, rather than the inflation rate becoming 10 times higher every year, which is what the IMF is selling you)

Both these data sources are consistent and they show that the IMF's predicted rate was 10 times higher than what actually happened. A 90% error. Given that their next year's prediction is 10 times more than this year's, and the rate is going down and not up, next year the IMF's prediction will be 99% in error.

So either the Venezuelan government reforms worked, and led to inflation 10 times less than it would have, or the IMF was just full of shit with their predictions to start with.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 04, 2019, 05:00:32 pm
I'll ad a option 2.1: They were full of shit, but it is because things are ridiculously chaotic and trying to predict it would be folly so they just went "lol 10 million".

I believe they just want to stop all investment in the country, period. Not help it advance, just usher the collapse of the current system asap.

Edit: You know what Teneb? They would then find a way to fertilize the ground using exclusively the world's most horrifying phosphorus mine.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 04, 2019, 05:08:30 pm
I'll ad a option 2.1: They were full of shit, but it is because things are ridiculously chaotic and trying to predict it would be folly so they just went "lol 10 million".

They seem to be relying on people not understanding inflation rates with their 10 million number, too.

For example, if the inflation rate is 1000%, then prices are 10 times higher, so you could say "at this rate, next year there will be 10000% inflation!" ... but that's not how it works. But there's no other way that I can put the IMF's 10 million number into context.

They don't seem to be taking any actual figures into account. We have the exchange rate for example (dolartoday.com), we can see how many USDs you get for a Venezuelan Bolivar, and we can look at Bloomberg's data on the change in the price of a cup of coffee in Caracas and see that that aligns perfectly with dolartoday.com's rate.

Empirical evidence like the price of a cup of coffee is in fact good data. If the real inflation rate was IMF-high they'd have to charge a lot more for that cup of coffee. It could be fun to predict what the cup of coffee should cost by the end of next year according to the IMF. It's 450 bolivars now. If the inflation for 2019 really was 10 million percent, then the cup of coffee should cost 45 million Bolivars by the end of 2019. That's the IMF prediction as of now.

However, just found a recent article, and Stephen Henke from Cato actually calculated the real inflation rate at the end of the year as 80,000%.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2019/01/01/venezuelas-hyperinflation-hits-80000-per-year-in-2018/

80000% for 2018, not the IMF's 1.37 million%. Which leaves the IMF's error rate at ~95% off. Also note that the overall rate since August was 170,000%, which is twice as high as Henke's ending figure for the year, which suggests the rate itself is declining, not increasing. It's reasonable to assume a trend where the rate halves every 6 months, to 20,000% for 2019. That would leave the IMF's error rate for 2019 as 99.98% incorrect.

For future reference, the IMF's 2019 10-million% prediction would mean the cup of coffee costs 45 million bolivars by this time next year. My 20,000% prediction would put the cup of coffee at about 90,000 Bolivars. Sure, that's a huge increase, but you can see why the IMF figure is in another ballpark.

Assuming the rate neither goes up or down from Henke's 2018 figure would put the coffee at 360,000 Bolivars. I'll come back and assess the coffee situation in about 6 months or so.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 04, 2019, 07:50:56 pm
That was a very insightful observation Reelya, thank you, honestly.

This must be a incredible time to be a coffe cup speculator, maybe I should buy a cup of coffe now and liquidate it when the price raises.

I'm very interested in the true difference in purchasing power over this period, let's jot this down and check back then.

Anyone wanna place their bets on how much for that sweet caffeine?

I'll take 270.000,00 to 280.000,00 VEF the cup, also throw in 1.000.000,00 VEF the accompanying empanada, give or take 10.000,00.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Dorsidwarf on January 06, 2019, 11:50:21 am
As much as I don’t want to believe that the IMF is trying deliberately to destabilise the Venezuelan economy with farcical predictions made of whole cloth, it’s really becoming hard to view otherwise.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 06, 2019, 12:35:55 pm
Back about 2008  there was an IMF report about inflation figures for all of South America. I could probably wrassle up the PDF if I tried. it was off the IMF website so an official document.

The upshot is that every nation's forecasts were calculated to three decimal places. Except for Venezuela, which was nice amounts to the nearest 0.5, and supposedly going to increase by the same exact integer amount every year starting in 2009. On a report where every figure was to three decimal place. And it turned out it actually fell from 2008-2013 which was the exact opposite of the 2008 IMF forecasts.

From back then, it's been pretty clear that the IMF does "special" accounting just for Venezuela that doesn't involve doing actual math. They don't even bother faking the figures to more than 1 or 2 significant figures.

Every year from 2008 onwards, inflation was supposed to increase by exactly 3.000% (it didn't), so it seems like they just discovered you could click the "=" key on their calculator repeatedly to repeat the +3 additions.

This time it seems that they've made the radical discovery that the repeat trick works for the * key, too, and plugged * 10 = = =" into the calculator for their current "100,000 last year, 1 million this year, 10 million next year" prediction.

This is why, while there are big problems, everyone should take corporate media figures quoting the inflation rate with a grain of salt. IMF has a long history of faking this stuff, going back well before there was any hyperinflation going on. Steven Henke from the Cato institute who writes in Forbes is the go-to guy if you want more reliable figures. Even the Bloomberg ad-hoc metric of the price of a cappuccino in Caracas is more accurate than the IMF predictions.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 07, 2019, 11:05:44 am
It seems my country is 3 days from exploding politically and economically. At least to finish exploding.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 07, 2019, 05:30:33 pm
Um, links to what you’re talking about? Just wondering as to the details LordBaal.

After looking at a bbc article talking about a top judge that defected, it mentions that the inauguration is the 10th, I’d guess you’re referring to that?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 07, 2019, 07:54:40 pm
Yup, oposition controlled congress declared president Ripe illegitimate, so there is a real change that congress is going to be simply dissolved.
The special assembly was boycotted by the opposition, making the body that is supposed to rewrite the constitution nothing more than yes men and fellow partisans. Looks like all pretense of democracy is about to go through the window.

This whole "emergency assembly to review constitution" reminds of the french revolution. None of the "rights of men" stuff, of course, more of "reign of terror" stuff that follows right behind.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 07, 2019, 09:43:20 pm
More or less that. Thanks for asking smjjames, you get to have all my nice stuff after all explodes.

And as said, pretty much that. The real congress got a new president (of the Congress) which stated that they won't recognise Masburro as anything but a usurper after the 10th. Oh and we had a practical devaluation of the 50% today, it's fucking horrible. People are going crazy over the prices of everything and well, food is scarce and overpriced.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 07, 2019, 09:44:34 pm
Um, links to what you’re talking about? Just wondering as to the details LordBaal.

After looking at a bbc article talking about a top judge that defected, it mentions that the inauguration is the 10th, I’d guess you’re referring to that?

Maybe the Venezuelan Supreme Court Justice that denounced Maduro's re-election and then fled to the US? (https://www.npr.org/2019/01/07/682865392/venezuela-supreme-court-judge-denounces-government-flees-to-u-s)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 07, 2019, 09:51:10 pm
So after the 10th more than half the planet will consider us without a executive power or representation. The rest of the planet are leeches sucking my country dry.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Teneb on January 07, 2019, 10:07:47 pm
So after the 10th more than half the planet will consider us without a executive power or representation. The rest of the planet are leeches sucking my country dry.
Don't forget that the half not leeching off of your country is only doing what they are doing because they want to be the leeches instead. Lovely attitudes all around.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 07, 2019, 10:18:54 pm
Is like a catch 22 actually. Either way we might be domed.
(https://i.redd.it/8k46r2k2bbtx.jpg)

But seriously, a change is in dire need, and while it migth be true another countries have interests they might not be as nefarious and supporting a despotic dictatorship that has done nothing but pure evil against us.

Honestly I don't care who's in power, I don't want to be a slave or fight the Empire, I just want to be able to see the end of the month with an honest job and be able to provide my family with the basics of health, food, education and shelter without having to go to work with eyes over my shoulder wondering if this is the day I won't come back home because some fucking piece of shit liked my shoes enough to shoot me for them without even asking.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 08, 2019, 12:55:19 am
Yup, oposition controlled congress declared president Ripe illegitimate, so there is a real change that congress is going to be simply dissolved.
The special assembly was boycotted by the opposition, making the body that is supposed to rewrite the constitution nothing more than yes men and fellow partisans. Looks like all pretense of democracy is about to go through the window.

This whole "emergency assembly to review constitution" reminds of the french revolution. None of the "rights of men" stuff, of course, more of "reign of terror" stuff that follows right behind.

More or less that. Thanks for asking smjjames, you get to have all my nice stuff after all explodes.

And as said, pretty much that. The real congress got a new president (of the Congress) which stated that they won't recognise Masburro as anything but a usurper after the 10th. Oh and we had a practical devaluation of the 50% today, it's fucking horrible. People are going crazy over the prices of everything and well, food is scarce and overpriced.

Inb4 Trump decides to declare war on and thus 'LIBERATE' Venezuela in an attempt to distract from eveything else bad happening to him. While the thought of declaring war in order to distract from bad things doesn't seem to have crossed his mind as far as I know, I wouldn't put it past him to try doing that.

I read a while back that Bolsonaro was looking into something about intervening in Venezuela and he and/or his sons apparently have contacts with some rebel faction or other in Venezuela. So, maybe Bolsonaro could convince Trump into joining in something. Wouldn't be suprised if Brazil gets left holding the bag at the end and has to deal with the aftermath since it wouldn't be our fault for a change.

Just to be clear though, I wouldn't support just going in, liberating, going rah rah rah, then leaving since that's the same mistake (if paraprased) that we made with Iraq and similarily with other places in the mideast. Besides, this is our own backyard (or, from another perspective, our stomping grounds) we are talking about.

I don't really see Venezuela falling prey to the same kind of factionalism that plagues places in the mideast. Political factionalism if things aren't reconciled, definetly.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Kagus on January 08, 2019, 03:18:47 am
I'm not even sure how declaring war during a shutdown would work. He'd certainly be making history!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: wierd on January 08, 2019, 03:25:45 am
"Hey! Soldiers!  Where's your patriotism!?  Sure, we are totally NOT paying you-- AT ALL-- because I am not getting my way with the god-damned wall those filthy democrats are not willing to protect America, but I know YOU are!  So come on, Go risk your lives for absolutely no reimbursement at all!"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 08, 2019, 06:37:34 am
Umm... Have you ever seen miss Universe? Well, for every 10 communists you kill in Venezuela you get to take one Venezuelan woman back home????

Lots of girls here die for the gringos as they are seen as exotic and above all wealthy. Even the redneck soldier living on a trailer and off government assistance is making way more than the average of us, and if he has blue/green eyes, it's a sell.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 08, 2019, 07:58:05 am
Brb, visiting Venezuela
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Magistrum on January 08, 2019, 08:29:44 pm
The United States is not going to do anything other than the common sanctions and the like.

Brazil is way more of a threat, since it has double the active personnel and some 2 million reserves. Honestly, a very reactionary government has been elected, so I wouldn't be surprised if Venezuela had major swings of power every time Brazil shifted in it's seat ever so slightly.

We all know and we all hope there nothing like this about to happen, it simply isn't how it works anymore. The army will soon pick a side and get going like it has always done.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 08, 2019, 09:25:57 pm
The United States is not going to do anything other than the common sanctions and the like.

Brazil is way more of a threat, since it has double the active personnel and some 2 million reserves. Honestly, a very reactionary government has been elected, so I wouldn't be surprised if Venezuela had major swings of power every time Brazil shifted in it's seat ever so slightly.

I think you underestimate how easily Trump is swayed by strongmen, or at least how much he cowers to them. Not to mention that he is going to become desperate for distractions as the pressure on him builds.

Quote
We all know and we all hope there nothing like this about to happen, it simply isn't how it works anymore. The army will soon pick a side and get going like it has always done.

Wouldn't you rather break the cycle of military dictatorships that have happened in South America? You make it sound like a military dictatorship is inevitable, but it doesn't have to be.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Egan_BW on January 08, 2019, 09:30:25 pm
"Hey! Soldiers!  Where's your patriotism!?  Sure, we are totally NOT paying you-- AT ALL-- because I am not getting my way with the god-damned wall those filthy democrats are not willing to protect America, but I know YOU are!  So come on, Go risk your lives for absolutely no reimbursement at all!"

Failing to pay soldiers? Well on the bright side we might get a second constitution out of it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 08, 2019, 09:40:07 pm
I don't vouch for a military intervention because it would mean even more senseless life loses. I would support something like Noriega's extraction but that would be hard to pull here.

However as the military of this country has proven over and over again is that they won't support a democratic movement since the higher echelons are knee deep in narcotics trade and all sorts of racketeering and corruption, while middle and lower ranks are either too afraid to do anything or too brainwashed and enjoying the pitiful perks of having a tad of power.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: IronyOwl on January 08, 2019, 10:36:51 pm
The United States is not going to do anything other than the common sanctions and the like.

I think you underestimate how easily Trump is swayed by strongmen, or at least how much he cowers to them. Not to mention that he is going to become desperate for distractions as the pressure on him builds.
Well, go on. You're claiming it's likely that a war and regime change is imminent, I assume you've got some fascinating data to back that up?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 09, 2019, 02:38:40 am
I never said that it was imminent, just that I wouldn't put it past Trump to try something.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Dorsidwarf on January 25, 2019, 04:48:10 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46997555 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46997555)

Really surprised nobody here's mentioned the fact that the opposition leader Juan Guaidó  just declared himself president at a rally, the US officially backed him (and recognised him as the 'real' leader of Venezuela) within minutes, followed by several other south american nations and the UK, while Russia makes threatening warning noises.


Quote

US National Security Adviser John Bolton has said the Trump administration is working on a plan to funnel funds to Mr Guaidó, who is currently at an undisclosed location.

President Trump has said that "all options are on the table" in response to the unrest.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Kagus on January 25, 2019, 05:04:38 am
I mean, it'd be a great distraction from domestic US politics... A war with Venezuela? That's an untapped resource of brown people to fight! It'll be a blatant installation of a hand-picked puppet sympathetic to US economic interests, just like the good old days!

Yeah, I still doubt it's going to be outright war, but it's definitely gonna be interesting. "Interesting", in the "What if we fixed this by making it worse?" sense of the term.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2019, 06:11:47 am
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46997555 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-46997555)

Really surprised nobody here's mentioned

We had a tangent in the WTF thread this time instead ;)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 25, 2019, 06:19:32 am
Interestingly, Mexico is bucking the USA's influence and backing Maduro on this.

That could be as much of a snub of Trump as support of Maduro: Trump does X, so Mexico does Y.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Kagus on January 25, 2019, 06:22:46 am
Interestingly, Mexico is bucking the USA's influence and backing Maduro on this.
Yeah, I'm wondering how much of that is actually Mexico supporting Maduro, and how much of it is "Goddamnit EEUU, stop trying to drive South/Central American politics like a damn RC car"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 07:38:10 am
I mean, it'd be a great distraction from domestic US politics... A war with Venezuela? That's an untapped resource of brown people to fight! It'll be a blatant installation of a hand-picked puppet sympathetic to US economic interests, just like the good old days!

Yeah, I still doubt it's going to be outright war, but it's definitely gonna be interesting. "Interesting", in the "What if we fixed this by making it worse?" sense of the term.
Hey! I'm not brown. If anything I'm pasty informatic white.

But seriously yeah, I didn't wanted to rock the boat much here but it sure is interesting. The thing is that he just didn't proclaimed himself president on a rally. It was the culmination of months of work and he's really sticking to our constitution, which if followed by the letter didn't gave him much options either, he had to take charge or renounce to his seat as "senator" (the word in Spanish is diputado, dunno I'd senator is really the same
 Congressman seem more fitting).

Anyway, why would you think USA besides the obvious would support a change when the former government always took any chance to proclaim you were an evil empire of war and destruction and eating babies while at the same time they stave us to death, quite literally?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 25, 2019, 07:45:30 am
Diputado would be related to the English word Deputy. You're right that this usually refers the the lower house of a bicarmarel legislature, so it's the equivalent of the US Congress. However, there are places with a unicarmarel system where it's just a Senate. e.g. in Wales, they have the Senedd.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2019, 07:59:58 am
The Irish one is called Sinead
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 08:01:45 am
Sure I would guess. We used to have a bicameral congress with deputies and senators but then the revolution came in and dissolved that to make a simpler national assembly which consists only on deputies.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2019, 08:05:40 am
(In Sweden they're called realmsdaysmen and -women
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Reelya on January 25, 2019, 08:07:35 am
Really? I would have thought that in Sweden they would have deemed it sexist to have gender-specific terms for that and changed it ages ago. But ... I guess that type of stuff is off the table now due to the political situation.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2019, 08:16:06 am
Well if you want to you could also call it realmsdayslimbtowards, that's gender neutral.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2019, 09:13:09 am
On second thought, I didn't mean to bring the thread ofv-topic with my shitposting, I was just bored at home. Back to Venezuela!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 09:43:16 am
Apparently there are rumors Maduro want's to send his terrorist militias called "colectivos" (groups of what's basically are orks on bikes) to attack the US embassy. Since they aren't officially affiliated to anyone formally he could simply wash his hands and say it's the "people" of Venezuela fighting against the evil Empire. This would be monumentally stupid I think.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 25, 2019, 10:42:56 am
'monumentially' would be an understatement. Ironically though, the spectre of Benghazi is hanging over the whole thing (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/24/us-diplomats-venezuela-maduro-trump-1123369) and what you're describing sounds a lot like Benghazi.

Also, NYT article with better Russia details (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/24/world/americas/venezuela-news-maduro-russia.html). While Russia is being hypocritical as fuck in talking about international laws and norms (to be fair though, in some ways, the US is also hypocritical as fuck on the same thing), there does seem to be a bit of 'Stop and think before you do something rash that you'll regret!' in their tone.

Also2, Teneb (or any other Brazillians), is Bolsonaro still itching for some kind of fight with Venezuela? because this sounds like something that he'd jump into the fray.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: Teneb on January 25, 2019, 11:04:12 am
Also2, Teneb (or any other Brazillians), is Bolsonaro still itching for some kind of fight with Venezuela? because this sounds like something that he'd jump into the fray.
Unknown. Maduro is one of his bogeymen (the other is the now-defunct FARC that he still insists exists as a guerrilla, because of course).

The thing about political bogeymen is that those who use them don't actually want to fight them, because they can't be used as "THE ENEMY, FEAR IT, ONLY I CAN PROTECT YOU FROM IT".


Also on source-less news because no articles in english I could find (well, there's pt-br ones):
-Gay Federal Deputy Jean Willis not only abdicated from both his current and upcoming mandate, but left the country and won't be coming back. Reason being that he and his family have been receiving very real death threats since Dilma's fall and he claims that the government, both old and current, haven't done anything about it. (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/01/25/quem-ameaca-parlamentar-esta-cometendo-um-crime-contra-a-democracia-diz-mourao.ghtml)

-Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights (who is totally not a crazed zealot), is readying a... damn it's hard to describe it in english; sort of a temporary decree that has the power of a law for 120 days until congress approves (then it becomes permanent) or rejects it, regarding home schooling. When questioned in interview about how the progress of kids in home-schooling will be monitored, she just said they're discussing it, but will rely on people reporting stuff to the governmental institution that handles stuff like child protection and so on. For whatever reason I cannot find a page about it despite just seeing it on tv.

EDIT: Regarding Venezuela again... while I have no love for Maduro, or his oppositors for that matter, I think that Guaidó declaring himself president without being chosen by the people themselves is highly problematic and concerning.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: smjjames on January 25, 2019, 11:11:08 am
Sounds like some sort of executive order or emergency measure sort of thing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 11:41:47 am
Well, he was elected as deputy. Also he got elected to be president of the national assembly by his peers. He's also following the constitution to the letter.

Maduro's "reelection" was made out of the correct times, with an electoral college that has it's judges corrupted and publicly partial to the cartel and with their periods long expired.

Also Guiadó didn't just declared himself, literally tens of millions of us took the streets of the country that day to show him support.

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Teneb on January 25, 2019, 11:48:56 am
Well, he was elected as deputy. Also he got elected to be president of the national assembly by his peers. He's also following the constitution to the letter.

Maduro's "reelection" was made out of the correct times, with an electoral college that has it's judges corrupted and publicly partial to the cartel and with their periods long expired.

Also Guiadó didn't just declared himself, literally tens of millions of us took the streets of the country that day to show him support.

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.
I am not saying Maduro is legitimate, since you said yourself that it was an Electoral College and those are always undemocratic bullshit. But uh... elected by other politicians? Also bullshit.

It's nice that he actually has popular support, but did he, specifically he, got that support before his fellow congressfolks named him president? Because that's my concern. That your countrymen are failing to see something concerning because of the hate for the Ripe President.

Re: Farc: Yeah, but FARC is now a political party, yet the election propaganda acted as if they were still in their old, jungle-stalking form. As in, as if they had never laid down arms officially, and etc. Which is straight-up fear-mongering.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 11:59:49 am
Well, he was elected as deputy. Also he got elected to be president of the national assembly by his peers. He's also following the constitution to the letter.

Maduro's "reelection" was made out of the correct times, with an electoral college that has it's judges corrupted and publicly partial to the cartel and with their periods long expired.

Also Guiadó didn't just declared himself, literally tens of millions of us took the streets of the country that day to show him support.

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.
I am not saying Maduro is legitimate, since you said yourself that it was an Electoral College and those are always undemocratic bullshit.
(http://i.imgur.com/VQ72VJl.jpg)
Maybe my words weren't properly chosen. Is not not an electoral college like the one in USA, it's simply the regulatory organization. However the vote is still direct. Thing is the authorities of this organ have their periods expired already so many years ago, but since they are public supporters of the Cartel they haven't been replaced.

But uh... elected by other politicians? Also bullshit.

It's nice that he actually has popular support, but did he, specifically he, got that support before his fellow congressfolks named him president? Because that's my concern. That your countrymen are failing to see something concerning because of the hate for the Ripe President.
He didn't got elected as president of the republic by his peers. He got elected president of the national assembly. However the constitution points out that when the president can't be sworn (in this case because there weren't even real elections) the president of the national assembly gets to be a temporary president of the republic too. It's not an election or choice, it's law.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Teneb on January 25, 2019, 12:04:15 pm
Alright, then it was a failure in communications between us.

From what I'm gathering here, he needs to get an election going as soon as possible (which I imagine is when Maduro is no longer on the chair), right?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 12:06:47 pm
Alright, then it was a failure in communications between us.

From what I'm gathering here, he needs to get an election going as soon as possible (which I imagine is when Maduro is no longer on the chair), right?
Exactly, the idea is that he gets to be in power only temporary for less than a year, until the crisis is over and free, transparent and real elections can be done.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Boys wear Pink, Girls wear Blue.
Post by: feelotraveller on January 25, 2019, 05:22:42 pm
Also on source-less news because no articles in english I could find (well, there's pt-br ones):
-Gay Federal Deputy Jean Willis not only abdicated from both his current and upcoming mandate, but left the country and won't be coming back. Reason being that he and his family have been receiving very real death threats since Dilma's fall and he claims that the government, both old and current, haven't done anything about it. (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/01/25/quem-ameaca-parlamentar-esta-cometendo-um-crime-contra-a-democracia-diz-mourao.ghtml)

There's this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/jean-wyllys-brazils-openly-gay-congressman-leaves-job-country-amid-death-threats (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/jean-wyllys-brazils-openly-gay-congressman-leaves-job-country-amid-death-threats)
Since I don't read any form of portuguese, brazillian or otherwise, I can't tell if the content is the same beyond reporting the same event.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 05:42:34 pm
After it's speach today on Bolivar's Square in Chacao, the president Guaidó simply left strolling in the street, walking like a person without fear of anything.

Maduro can't pop his head freely around the corner without being insulted. He need to clean the street of people before going out.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Dorsidwarf on January 25, 2019, 05:51:37 pm
Strange, all the US outlets were reporting earlier today that Guaido is in hiding, in fear for his life from Maduro, and that the US is preparing to send him lots of "funds".

I guess its the difference in narrative incentive, US readers always prefer an underdog


Edit:

What was the deal with the elections anyway? As far as I can tell from the unclear reports, it seems that the opposition encouraged all its supportersto boycott the election (thereby increasing Nasty M's vote share) then turned around and said "look! Maduro has a much bigger margin than he should have! Rigged!"

I'm fairly sure thats a misunderstanding, but what was actually going on?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Reelya on January 25, 2019, 06:26:12 pm

What was the deal with the elections anyway? As far as I can tell from the unclear reports, it seems that the opposition encouraged all its supportersto boycott the election (thereby increasing Nasty M's vote share) then turned around and said "look! Maduro has a much bigger margin than he should have! Rigged!"

I'm fairly sure thats a misunderstanding, but what was actually going on?

It's not a misunderstanding, that's entirely what happened. It's a pattern they've repeated over and over. They push things as far as they go, to get a reaction (like setting fire to cars or starting riots) then if they get any security force reaction they go "see? they're fascists!"

Maduro is no saint, but many of the hardline opposition are more or less far-right card-carrying fascists in all but name. This is the thing that's the most worrying outcome: if they tear down the current state but the wrong people take the reins.

Remember, a Venezuelan government prior to Chavez carried out a large-scale massacre of protestors back in 1992. The death toll estimates vary from "official" estimate of 300, to human-rights group estimates of 3000. These are the people who want back into power, except now they're more radicalized with far-right activists than before.

When the 2002 coup against Chavez happened, the police, who were loyal to the previous regime (and many still are, as many of the police still predate the Chavez years) who carried out masscares were just straight up  shooting people in the street. There is footage. The question is: are they going to restrain themselves or is there going to a purge of all supporters of the socialist party (which is, you know, half the country) and all socialist party associated programs such as the foodbanks and free health clinics?

In 2002 the coup government just outright (it's on film) abolished the constitution, human rights laws, the parliament and the supreme court among other things. There's no other word for what was left than "dictatorship" when the military installs a ruler and eliminates all other organs of government. The opposition has been big on "amnesty" for everyone involved in that coup, because many of them are the same politicians now that are opposing Maduro. D'ya trust the straight-up the 1930s style fascist coup-plotters any more than you trust Maduro, that's the question here. Sure, maybe this new president guy is ok, IDK. But plenty of the people who are on his side of politics are definitely not ok. You think Trump supporters are bad? Some of these right-wing Venezeulan "opposition" guys have links with the Colombian death squads.

There's very strong evidence (documentary evidence plus direct eyewitness testimony from a reporter for CNN Spanish) that the Venezuela right-wing secretly organized a mass shooting of their own supporters back in 2002 as the justification for the 2002 coup. The CNN Spanish reporter said on film that the coup-leaders pre-recorded their denunciation of the shootings several hours before the march actually happened, including details such as that it was marchers who came under sniper fire. Then, one of the march leaders order a sudden unexpected change in route and despite disagreement, was adamant that the right-wing supporters must take that route. It was only after this route-change that the marchers came under sniper fire, and then they played the general's video denouncing "sniper fire on marchers" on TV that they'd pre-recorded. They needed to pre-record their "outrage" at the shootings because those generals needed to be in position to carry out the coup itself. This was definitely their "burning the Reichstag" moment. These are guys willing to murder their own supporters if it can be used as justification to seize power. Sprinkling some neo-nazis into a protest to provoke the police into responding is everyday low-grade stuff for these people.

Sure, Maduro is a terrible leader. but ... seriously, you're expecting me to trust these people as the alternative. It's like "mussolini sucks, so why not get Hitler to take over?"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: LordBaal on January 25, 2019, 06:52:25 pm
Well not quite. Yes there was a boycott but as I said it was made mostly out of the fact the elections over being rigged to no end were illegal, out of the time frame and honestly I could be here all night writing what was wrong with them.

Also, strictly speaking, there are not right wing parties in Venezuela, we have center-left and far left.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: smjjames on January 25, 2019, 08:48:00 pm

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.

Re: Farc: Yeah, but FARC is now a political party, yet the election propaganda acted as if they were still in their old, jungle-stalking form. As in, as if they had never laid down arms officially, and etc. Which is straight-up fear-mongering.

Old habits die hard? There was also that breakaway group who refused to lay down arms, but the leader of that got killed a bunch of months ago and I don't know what became of that breakaway group.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Reelya on January 25, 2019, 09:08:02 pm
Colombian Ex-president Uribe was against the FARC peace treaty. My guess is that it's related to (1) most of the drugs are grown in areas controlled by Anti-FARC paramilitaries, allied to the government and (2) a number of Uribe's close family are in prison convicted of connections to said paramilitaries (see links for some sources for these claims). Keeping the FARC around was convenient political cover for neo-nazi drug-cartels closely allied to the army, police and ruling political party.

Here's a timeline for 2008 in Colombia. In early 2008, Uribe was facing scandals related to his family's involvement with drug-trafficking death squads. Shortly after, Uribe's forces kill the FARC's peace negotiator, Raul Reyes, then after that, Uribe takes the credit for ordering a "daring" raid to rescue Ingrid Betancourt, a FARC hostage for several years.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/23/colombia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Jaque
Firstly, Raul Reyes was actually working on getting Ingrid Betancourt released at the time of his death. Uribe's forces therefore allowed him to take military credit for something that would have happened anyway, without bloodshed.

Secondly, it came out that there was no "raid" at all. Leaked footage shows FARC militia merely handing over Ingrid Betancourt (and some other prisoners) to Colombian army officers illegally disguised as International Red Cross members. Uribe then changed his story: they'd infiltrated FARC's command structure and were able to trick them into doing a prisoner transfer (via the Red Cross apparently). However, the question must be asked: exactly how long had Uribe had these infiltrators in place? Ingrid Betancourt was kidnapped in 2002, while she was running against Uribe for the presidency, then a few years later he conveniently snaps his fingers and gets her released. Both occurred at opportune times in Uribe's political career, and Uribe apparently had an easier time getting her out without a fight than a number of senior FARC people such as Reyes who were trying to negotiate the same thing. It's all too convenient.

(as an aside, when people pointed out that if the guerillas handed over prisoners to the International Red Cross then they were in fact releasing the prisoners not merely transporting the prisoners, Uribe tried to lump the International Red Cross in with the terrorists saying the FARC expected the Red Cross to merely help them move prisoners around. I'm 100% sure this is bullshit and the Red Cross doesn't in fact assist hostage-taking terrorists. But this is standard rhetoric from the Colombian right: all types of journalists, NGOs, unions, human rights activists, etc, are in league with the terrorists).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/29/colombia-president-alvaro-uribe-brother-charged-death-squad
President's brother convicted of running death squads.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/sep/08/alvaro-uribe-accused-paramilitary-ties
Ex-death squad leader accuses president Uribe of personally funding his group. There are more, these were just a few seconds worth of googling. Here's one about his cousin going to prison for the same stuff:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-12532826

Here's a wider overview:
https://colombiareports.com/uribes-cartel-years/

Here's the nail in the coffin in the "FARC = Drugs" argument.
http://library.aceondo.net/ebooks/HISTORY/Drugs__Oil__and_War__The_United_States_in_Afghanistan__Colombia__and_Indochina.pdf

Page 81 citations:
"Newsweek, May 21, 2001: “Colombian intelligence sources now estimate that 40 percent of the country’s total cocaine exports are controlled by these right-wing warlords and their allies in the  narcotics underworld.” San Francisco Chronicle, June  21, 2001: “The Colombian government’s planning department estimates that FARC earns $290 million  yearly  from  the  drug  trade. That represents less than 2.5 percent of the value of Colombia’s estimated annual cocaine output of 580 tons.” "

This was the FARC at their absolute peak of power, as well, before Uribe got elected. So, right wing = drugs in Colombia but their propaganda is to blame the Left for the whole shebang. I've see Docos where DEA guys go deep into FARC-controlled areas to destroy coca crops. This is corrupt politcal BS at it's worst. They're just taking out the competition while tacitly leaving the government-allied nazi drug lords alone.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: smjjames on January 25, 2019, 10:27:58 pm
Colombia is terrible, got it.

Anyways, as far as Brazil goes, an article I found in a Vox article (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/severinomotta/brazil-generals-no-military-intervention-venezuela) says that the Brazillian generals have ruled out military intervention outside of humanitarian missions.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Kagus on January 26, 2019, 05:20:12 am
Well that's something, at least. Unless they classify lead donations as a humanitarian mission.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2019, 08:36:15 am
Which is excellent and terrible news for us.

At one hand you have to a foreign military lees to worry about filling your ass with bullets, on the other hand there are already thousands of Cubans in disguise within our armed forces, Hezbola in the eastern states and both FARC and ELN operating in frontier zones and the Orinoco mining arc, that's without counting the Russians, Chinese, Turks and I suspect to some degree North Koreans.

In the gripping hand our own armed forces are nothing but a joke resembling more the brownshirts of Hittler than anything, at least that's what the generals and other high command show when they knee to suck Maduro's dick and in the case of Fidel's this was almost literal.
(https://cubanosporelmundo.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/DFHTTSjXsAQ8SfF.jpg)

They have declared themselves deeply aanti-imperialist, revolutionary, chavist, socialist and compromised to the project. So, unless there's a large change or uprising on their ranks, there would not be a change here, hence why it seems a intervention seems to be the only way out.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: Teneb on January 26, 2019, 08:44:21 am
Which is excellent and terrible news for us.

At one hand you have to a foreign military lees to worry about filling your ass with bullets, on the other hand there are already thousands of Cubans in disguise within our armed forces, Hezbola in the eastern states and both FARC and ELN operating in frontier zones and the Orinoco mining arc, that's without counting the Russians, Chinese, Turks and I suspect to some degree North Koreans.
Baal, do you got any evidence to back that? Like, even a newspaper article? Because I seriously doubt some of those. Hezbola? NK?



Anyway, we take a regularly scheduled break from Venezuela's death throes because Yet Another Mining Dam in Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has burst and destroyed a huge area and claimed around 200 lives. This time in Brumadinho (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/25/brazil-dam-collapse-news-latest-mining-disaster-brumadinho). This is going to be Mariana 2: The Sequel. No one's gonna get punished, because the law is actually insufficient and does not hold corporate leadership as responsible, and Brumadinho is gonna be another muddy wasteland.

This shit is what I mean when I talk about Mariana, which is the oldest damn settlement in that state. (https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/oct/15/samarco-dam-collapse-brazil-worst-environmental-disaster-bhp-billiton-vale-mining)

And of course, of course, the Pocket-naro wants to reduce legislation regarding this shit and its monitoring. Oh those wacky fascists.

EDIT: It's in PT-BR, but here's a Before and After comparison (https://g1.globo.com/mg/minas-gerais/noticia/2019/01/25/antes-e-depois-veja-imagens-do-rompimento-de-barragem-da-vale-em-brumadinho-mg.ghtml)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2019, 09:24:07 am
Baal, do you got any evidence to back that? Like, even a newspaper article? Because I seriously doubt some of those. Hezbola? NK?
News paper article:
http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/columnista/hezbollah-venezuela_220823
To further know:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margarita_Island#Terrorism


Anyway, we take a regularly scheduled break from Venezuela's death throes because Yet Another Mining Dam in Brazilian state of Minas Gerais has burst and destroyed a huge area and claimed around 200 lives. This time in Brumadinho (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/25/brazil-dam-collapse-news-latest-mining-disaster-brumadinho). This is going to be Mariana 2: The Sequel. No one's gonna get punished, because the law is actually insufficient and does not hold corporate leadership as responsible, and Brumadinho is gonna be another muddy wasteland.

This shit is what I mean when I talk about Mariana, which is the oldest damn settlement in that state. (https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/oct/15/samarco-dam-collapse-brazil-worst-environmental-disaster-bhp-billiton-vale-mining)

And of course, of course, the Pocket-naro wants to reduce legislation regarding this shit and its monitoring. Oh those wacky fascists.

EDIT: It's in PT-BR, but here's a Before and After comparison (https://g1.globo.com/mg/minas-gerais/noticia/2019/01/25/antes-e-depois-veja-imagens-do-rompimento-de-barragem-da-vale-em-brumadinho-mg.ghtml)
That seriously sucks balls, I hope it didn't affected anyone you knew.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: Magistrum on January 26, 2019, 09:34:47 am
I knew it was far too calm, no ridiculous shit had gone for almost a week.

Damn Brazil, why do you make it so hard to like you. No one will be punished, as usual.
I'm sure Pocket will be able to loosen regulations on mining, there is no oposition right now, the green party holds basically nothing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: hector13 on January 26, 2019, 01:57:59 pm
Bolsonaro is pocket?

Why is he called pocket?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: Magistrum on January 26, 2019, 02:14:42 pm
"Bolso" is a common shorthand for him, and "bolso" translates neatly to "pocket". (His name has no etymological relation to the root word for bolso, it's just a pun.)

Bad literal translations are a running joke among most Brazilian bilingual groups (that I've known at least), so we always try to find a nice bad translated name for presidents.

Our recent vampire was called "Fear", because his name is "Temer", written in the same way as fear in portuguese. The pronounciation is different though, the intonation changes from a oxitone to a paroxitone.

Lula is "squid".
Dilma doesn't gives anything good to work with, if anyone could help that would be great.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: LordBaal on January 26, 2019, 02:17:10 pm
 Fun fact Bolso and Temer mean exactly the same and are written the same in Spanish too. Well, bolso means more baggage or backpack but is the same something you trow stuff in.

Dilma is hard because is not a word or combination of words....
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: Magistrum on January 26, 2019, 02:21:49 pm
We also can have "Maduro" translated to "Ripe", but it seems he has gone bad already :P
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: Kagus on January 26, 2019, 02:27:50 pm
Dilbert?

(Dill) Pickle?

Dildo?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Guaidó is Ripe
Post by: Culise on January 26, 2019, 03:21:46 pm
What was the deal with the elections anyway? As far as I can tell from the unclear reports, it seems that the opposition encouraged all its supportersto boycott the election (thereby increasing Nasty M's vote share) then turned around and said "look! Maduro has a much bigger margin than he should have! Rigged!"

I'm fairly sure thats a misunderstanding, but what was actually going on?
The idea behind any electoral boycott is to present it as illegitimate: the typical claim is that the election was going to be rigged, illegitimate, illegal, or what-have-you in either case, so there's no point in pretending to legitimize it by participating and treating it as such.  Basically, if you're going to lose anyways or you refuse to work within the system as presented by the governing authorities, then there's every reason to reject the electoral process.  The Maoist parties of Nepal and India are the immediate example that strike me; convincing the former to be willing to work with the electoral process instead of continuing the ongoing civil war was a key part in both legitimizing them and the government as a whole, while their Indian Naxalite counterparts still reject the right to rule of the Indian government and remain committed to a violent overthrow of the New Delhi government.

In 2017 Venezuela specifically, Maduro declared a need by decree for a Constituent Assembly to create a new constitution in response to a narrowly-dodged attempt at a recall referendum in late 2016 which the National Electoral Council squashed, and under ongoing opposition from the National Assembly.  The opposition parties which held most of their power in the legislature stand to lose the most from a Maduro-led constitution declared this a fairly blatant attempt to bypass the National Assembly and hang on to power, and they thus refused to legitimize it by participating.  This has indeed had the obvious side-effect of denying them any voice in the Constituent Assembly, but considering that from their perspective Maduro was never going to permit them a voice in the first place, it's not a significant difference.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: smjjames on January 27, 2019, 10:17:40 am
On the name stuff, that mostly only seems to work in Brazillian-Portuguese and Spanish though.

Maduro has backed off on the diplomat rejection demand (https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/26/venezuela-us-diplomats-1128609), so, the situation has been defused somewhat.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: LordBaal on January 27, 2019, 10:20:02 am
Not entirely, instead of 72 hours he's giving them 30 days.... which is yeah, he rebuked like the fucking coward he is. Still the romours of an attack on the embassy or it's personnel haven't stopped.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: smjjames on January 27, 2019, 10:34:22 am
I did say 'defused somewhat'.

Has Maduro said anything on those rumors or pushed back? It sounds like the rumors are serious enough to get the attention of the US, considering the current situation. It'd be a pretty suicidal thing to do though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: smjjames on January 27, 2019, 11:53:13 pm
Looks like the US (government, that is) definetly heard of those rumors and are taking them seriously (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47023370) because they're warning against violence aimed at diplomats.

Is what Bolton claiming about Cuba having control over Maduros security and paramilitary actually accurate? I'm 99% sure he is just bullshitting though, and even if Cuba did control the security and paramilitary forces, they have too much to lose to try anything like what the rumors are implying, nor are they so stupid as to antagonize the US in that way.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: LordBaal on January 28, 2019, 07:04:48 am
Those rumors are 100% accurate. Chavez delivered the country to the Cubans in a silver plate. Not only we "gift" a lot of barrels per day to the Cuban revolution, we have numberless "medics" and assessors in the army. I have seen first hand how Venezuela military man has to stand firm and salute passing military Cuban as if they were their superiors.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Mariana 2: Electric Mudaloo
Post by: smjjames on January 28, 2019, 10:54:31 am
If it's that much, then they'd better tell Maduro to knock it off with any such plans since they know better than to provoke the giant next door.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: Teneb on January 30, 2019, 02:36:09 pm
The new thread title is to "celebrate" the hottest day in about a century.

(Source, pt-br only use a translator: https://diariodorio.com/rio-tem-o-janeiro-mais-quente-em-quase-100-anos/)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: LordBaal on January 30, 2019, 04:21:46 pm
Now Maduro made a video imploring the USA people to intercede for him against Trump, because a coup is being financed by Trump pockets.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: smjjames on January 30, 2019, 05:30:27 pm
The new thread title is to "celebrate" the hottest day in about a century.

(Source, pt-br only use a translator: https://diariodorio.com/rio-tem-o-janeiro-mais-quente-em-quase-100-anos/)

Meanwhile, a polar vortex is hitting the midwest and the east...

Now Maduro made a video imploring the USA people to intercede for him against Trump, because a coup is being financed by Trump pockets.

Not sure what he expects the American people to do, because, unlike South America, we've never had a coup in the sense of the kind of hostile takeover that South America has had a history of. Sure, some would call the 2000 election a 'coup', but that isn't the same thing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: LordBaal on January 30, 2019, 07:45:05 pm
Dunno. He's just shitting his pants because probably is going to spend the rest of his life on prison?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: smjjames on January 30, 2019, 11:06:07 pm
I also saw something about him claiming Trump paid for his assassination out of his own pocket. So, yeah, it’s just him mouthing off.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: Kagus on February 01, 2019, 05:21:19 am
Maduro sells more central bank gold to buy delicious euros. (https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1PP2QR)

My first reaction was that this seems like kind of a bad plan in the long term, but I don't know anything about economy so who knows?

And, I mean, the currency is already pretty intensely fucked... How much worse could it really get from this?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: WTB Ice Age PMO
Post by: LordBaal on February 01, 2019, 08:51:31 am
I dont think they are going to plan for the long term anymore.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heat's passed, it drowning time
Post by: Teneb on February 08, 2019, 08:23:11 am
A massive storm hit Rio de Janeiro and its metropolitan area two days ago, causing a lot of damage even over 24 hours afterwards. This last night, the Ninho do Urubu (Vulture's Nest) training center of sports club Flamengo had one of its buildings, the lodgings of the teenage athletes, burn down. I've heard speculation that it caused by a candle since the area had no electrical power at that moment, but there's no official cause yet.

Death count is 10, but only the identity of two of those, both teenage players, have been confirmed so far.

What a damned waste.

Source in English (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47170055)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heat's passed, it drowning time
Post by: LordBaal on February 08, 2019, 08:48:49 am
Darn it, that is really rough men. Such potential, specially Brazilian sportsmen, wasted as such young age.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heat's passed, it drowning time
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 14, 2019, 11:46:20 pm
All that money spent on Rio olympics, and for what

All potential, just lost

*EDIT
Searching for more gold to sell, Maduro still in battle against Bank of England regarding repatriation of Venezuelan gold (http://www.cityam.com/273138/venezuelas-nicolas-maduro-calls-gold-held-bank-england)
Venezuelan opposition says the gold shouldn't be repatriated if it's just going to finance corruption
Maduro says he needs the gold to provide the relevant liquidity to just unfuck Venezuela's shit right now
USA says not to repatriate the gold to keep up the sanctions pressure
Bank of England gives a whole bunch of waffle about how they will transfer the gold once the counterparty fulfills the relevant authorisations and criteria
/biz/ says the Bank of England is stalling because they don't actually have the gold
memes
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heat's passed, it drowning time
Post by: smjjames on February 15, 2019, 01:36:00 am
4chan has a business section? I suppose they gotta have somewhere to put the business related memes.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heat's passed, it drowning time
Post by: LordBaal on February 15, 2019, 07:14:20 am
They had 20 years to unfuck everything. Mauro had 6 years to personally unfuck everything. They didn't and they won't ever do it. They depend on us being focused in surviving just one more day to stay in power.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Heat's passed, it drowning time
Post by: Kagus on February 15, 2019, 07:17:41 am
4chan has a business section? I suppose they gotta have somewhere to put the business related memes.
Well, someone needs to polish all those bitcoins.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: Teneb on February 15, 2019, 12:10:08 pm
Here's two recent news regarding the two shittiest ministers of the year.

In the least worst news of the two, Minister of Human Rights counsels parents with daughters to leave the country (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/02/15/damares-cita-violencia-contra-mulher-e-diz-que-aconselharia-pais-de-meninas-a-fugir-do-pais.ghtml), because obviously thinking of and implementing ways to combat violence against women is too much work. This is the minister who literally said she didn't care about the state being religion neutral, who made homophobic remarks and also kidnapped a native girl and "adopted" her (she never even forged an adoption document).

Meanwhile, the Minister of Education, who is a reactionary Colombian philosopher, said Brazilians are thieves and cannibals (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/02/14/rosa-weber-notifica-ministro-da-educacao-a-explicar-fala-sobre-brasileiro-canibal.ghtml).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: scriver on February 15, 2019, 01:29:08 pm
That's a minister of Brazil saying that about Brazilians, to be clear.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: Teneb on February 15, 2019, 01:49:04 pm
That's a minister of Brazil saying that about Brazilians, to be clear.
Yes.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: Kagus on February 15, 2019, 01:53:48 pm
And... Doesn't the Human Rights Minister's comment mean that she should also leave the country, if she's surprise-adopted a native girl?

Or has the girl since been sold off?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: LordBaal on February 15, 2019, 02:49:14 pm
You have a human rights ministry???!!! -Says the guy from the country with a Happiness ministry.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: Teneb on February 15, 2019, 03:02:31 pm
You have a human rights ministry???!!! -Says the guy from the country with a Happiness ministry.
Yes. It started its existence as the Secretariat of Human Rights under Fernando Henrique Cardoso, then was elevated to Ministry of Women, Racial Equality, and Human Rights by Dilma Rouseff, got reduced to Ministry of Human Rights by Michel Temer, and finally the Pocket Monster sanitized it to the Ministry of Women, Family and Human Rights.

And... Doesn't the Human Rights Minister's comment mean that she should also leave the country, if she's surprise-adopted a native girl?

Or has the girl since been sold off?
So here's what reporters (of a right-leaning magazine!) found out: the girl was born in a native reserve, and at some point her parents passed away and she lived with her grandmother. Then the now-minister rolled in as a missionary and took the girl supposedly to give her dental treatment, promising she would bring her back, despite the fact that the girl didn't want to go and the community didn't want to let her go either. Then suddenly the then-missionary-now-minister has an adopted daughter! That she never legally adopted! The minister has refused to comment about it despite saying she would love to clarify the situation before the journalists released the work.

And to no one's surprise, no legal investigation is being held. Because of course.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: hector13 on February 15, 2019, 03:18:53 pm
Well yeah. Then he'd have to find a replacement, and that's just a waste of time and money.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: Egan_BW on February 16, 2019, 05:14:13 am
That's a minister of Brazil saying that about Brazilians, to be clear.
Well, that's one approach to PR I guess.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Ministry, Schministry
Post by: Kagus on February 16, 2019, 05:23:57 am
That's a minister of Brazil saying that about Brazilians, to be clear.
Well, that's one approach to PR I guess.
Today, Brazil. Tomorrow, Puerto Rico!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on February 23, 2019, 10:06:20 am
Okay, I couldn't find any articles about it in english due to bad website layouts making it hard to search for slightly older articles, but Venezuela has closed the Brazilian-Venezuela border. Refugees are still trickling in, but are having to slog through trenches or jungle to do so.

Apparently at the Colombian border, Venezuelan soldiers have left their posts (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47343918), though it seems it was just a few of them.

BBC also has this live reporting page. (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-latin-america-47344348) Be aware of the site's biases and all, but so far its good info.


EDIT: Brazil's fascists government has said they won't invade Venezuela (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/02/22/governo-descarta-acao-agressiva-contra-venezuela-e-diz-que-papel-do-brasil-e-de-carater-humanitario.ghtml).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on February 23, 2019, 10:12:31 am
The New York Times has also talked a bit about it, and I even saw a headline about it in Norwegian news.

There's also this (https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/americas/100000006360134/venezuela-border-bridge-guaido-maduro.html) video talking about one of the major crossings and how they closed an already-closed bridge for some reason.

I did see a video with Maduro stating that he was going to close the border entirely, but I don't know how much that's actually been put into effect versus how much people are focusing on the big bridge.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on February 23, 2019, 10:15:50 am
The New York Times has also talked a bit about it, and I even saw a headline about it in Norwegian news.

There's also this (https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/americas/100000006360134/venezuela-border-bridge-guaido-maduro.html) video talking about one of the major crossings and how they closed an already-closed bridge for some reason.

I did see a video with Maduro stating that he was going to close the border entirely, but I don't know how much that's actually been put into effect versus how much people are focusing on the big bridge.
I don't know much about the geography of the Venezuela-Colombia border, but the Brazil-Venezuela border is surprisingly effective to shut down since it's literally the only point where you can cross without risking death. I imagine it might be similar with that bridge.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on February 23, 2019, 10:40:21 am
Okay, I couldn't find any articles about it in english due to bad website layouts making it hard to search for slightly older articles, but Venezuela has closed the Brazilian-Venezuela border. Refugees are still trickling in, but are having to slog through trenches or jungle to do so.

Apparently at the Colombian border, Venezuelan soldiers have left their posts (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47343918), though it seems it was just a few of them.

BBC also has this live reporting page. (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-latin-america-47344348) Be aware of the site's biases and all, but so far its good info.


EDIT: Brazil's fascists government has said they won't invade Venezuela (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/02/22/governo-descarta-acao-agressiva-contra-venezuela-e-diz-que-papel-do-brasil-e-de-carater-humanitario.ghtml).

I think I saw an english article somewhere mentioning that Maduro closed the Venezuela-Brazil border, forget where though.

As for Brazil saying that they won't invade Venezuela, they said that months ago as well that the only involvement would be for humanitarian reasons. Though IMO, 'humanitarian reasons' could be applied pretty broadly, like Libya for example.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on February 23, 2019, 03:54:42 pm
Escalating..... (https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/23/americas/venezuela-brazil-violence-intl/index.html) Maduro has cut off diplomatic ties with Colombia and is giving them 24 hours to leave, and is threatening the US in some way, the same rhetoric as before I guess.

editwhiletyping: And now, the Secretary General of OAS (Organization of American States) says that Maduro can't do that because he isn't legitimate. (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-latin-america-47344348?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5c71aee77c432e0681fbd69c%26Maduro%20%27can%27t%20break%20ties%20with%20Colombia%27%262019-02-23T20%3A45%3A12.351Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:2061b59c-f4b1-4c70-a881-be797f0cef3b&pinned_post_asset_id=5c71aee77c432e0681fbd69c&pinned_post_type=share) Doubt he'd be able to actually stop Maduro anyway.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on February 23, 2019, 04:00:23 pm
Unfortunately in most of the world, whomever has the military is the de facto government of a country. Everything else is sadly secondary.

And Maduro has the military.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 23, 2019, 04:10:28 pm
Escalating..... (https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/23/americas/venezuela-brazil-violence-intl/index.html) Maduro has cut off diplomatic ties with Colombia and is giving them 24 hours to leave, and is threatening the US in some way, the same rhetoric as before I guess.

editwhiletyping: And now, the Secretary General of OAS (Organization of American States) says that Maduro can't do that because he isn't legitimate. (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-latin-america-47344348?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5c71aee77c432e0681fbd69c%26Maduro%20%27can%27t%20break%20ties%20with%20Colombia%27%262019-02-23T20%3A45%3A12.351Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:2061b59c-f4b1-4c70-a881-be797f0cef3b&pinned_post_asset_id=5c71aee77c432e0681fbd69c&pinned_post_type=share) Doubt he'd be able to actually stop Maduro anyway.
Not that I want to defend this clown in any manner, but I recall the previous time the supposed threats against the US were actually a grossly mistranslated and spun phrase that then was subsequently bounced around English-language media
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on February 23, 2019, 09:08:58 pm
No, the first time a few weeks ago was 24 hours too, then 72, then a week, then he didn't spoke about it again.

Fuck it darn it, they torched 3 trucks for a total of 60 tons of food, medicine and vaccines that would have helped so many people...

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Doomblade187 on February 23, 2019, 10:09:04 pm
Damnit. The gov refusal of foreign aid is a terrible thing. Even diplomatic pouches aren't a guaranteed method of transmitting things, though hopefully it still works.

And I'm starting to worry that the US is trying to find a cause for military intervention.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on February 23, 2019, 11:35:09 pm
Damnit. The gov refusal of foreign aid is a terrible thing. Even diplomatic pouches aren't a guaranteed method of transmitting things, though hopefully it still works.

And I'm starting to worry that the US is trying to find a cause for military intervention.
Considering how US senators went to the bridge that was never actually used (due to bureaucratic issues) and said it being closed was terrorism... yeah, I totally see that. Brazil is also trying to send a humanitarian convoy, but they're going through a path that is actually used (but currently closed, I think to stop people from leaving more than to keep stuff from coming in).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: wierd on February 24, 2019, 12:59:10 am
No, the first time a few weeks ago was 24 hours too, then 72, then a week, then he didn't spoke about it again.

Fuck it darn it, they torched 3 trucks for a total of 60 tons of food, medicine and vaccines that would have helped so many people...

And all for the ego of one man.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on February 24, 2019, 01:41:58 am
Escalating..... (https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/23/americas/venezuela-brazil-violence-intl/index.html) Maduro has cut off diplomatic ties with Colombia and is giving them 24 hours to leave, and is threatening the US in some way, the same rhetoric as before I guess.

editwhiletyping: And now, the Secretary General of OAS (Organization of American States) says that Maduro can't do that because he isn't legitimate. (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-latin-america-47344348?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5c71aee77c432e0681fbd69c%26Maduro%20%27can%27t%20break%20ties%20with%20Colombia%27%262019-02-23T20%3A45%3A12.351Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:2061b59c-f4b1-4c70-a881-be797f0cef3b&pinned_post_asset_id=5c71aee77c432e0681fbd69c&pinned_post_type=share) Doubt he'd be able to actually stop Maduro anyway.
Not that I want to defend this clown in any manner, but I recall the previous time the supposed threats against the US were actually a grossly mistranslated and spun phrase that then was subsequently bounced around English-language media

Regardless, he's just doing the equivalent of an ant trying to roar at a lion and look strong.

...

Okay, maybe a rabbit, the ant would probably be the smallest, most inconsequential, country in existence.

And I'm starting to worry that the US is trying to find a cause for military intervention.

Outside of humanitarian stuff that is.

Trumps admin is certainly leaving the option open. Maduro just needs to not be so stupid as to give us a reason to intervene militarily. At this rate it's going to be easier to base a loose causus belli off of something dumb Maduro did rather than create one. Hell, theres already a loose precedent with Libya, even though Ghaddaffi apparently wasn't actually about to commit genocide.

Of course though, the other problem is, would allies join in? I suppose Brazil and Colombia (or maybe Colombia intervening would make things worse*, given the history between them and Venezuela) might join in for humanitarian reasons, but South America would still be pretty pissed at the US for historical reasons I don't need to explain here. Maybe a bit less pissed if the reason was warranted, but still.

*LordBaal, would it be a problem if Colombia took part in a military intervention? I get that the two countries have had plenty of history between each other and wouldn't neccesarily call each other friends (not at this point in time, obviously), but given the circumstances and I don't know the general feeling the Venezuelan public has towards Colombia...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on February 24, 2019, 10:36:38 am
The bridge was indeed closed by terrorism. State terrorism. Not being in use is not the same as being actively blocked.

As for an intervention. Most likely it would be a coalition with Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Argentine and Paraguay doing most of the stuffs. And for this one, it seem the regime is actually eager to give US as much reasons to intervene and not the other way around.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on February 24, 2019, 10:55:51 am
Such a coalition would actually have to be built first. Other than the US-Colombian partnership, I haven't seen any sign that anybody other than Colombia and Brazil would be willing to join in on such an intervention. Though that's based on what I know. I suppose any relations problems that Colombia and Venezuela have with each other would be mitigated somewhat if they were part of a larger coalition.

editwhiletyping: I had a thought, if Guyana joined into the coalition, things could get diplomatically complicated. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba#Schomburgk_Line)

Given Trumps attitude towards allies, I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to go it alone, though a desire not to get left holding the bag when it comes time to wind things down and reconstruct might give him enough pause to get others in.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 24, 2019, 12:30:56 pm
Maduro: Stop the medicine and food supplies from getting to the protestors, they are traitors using the supplies to rebel
Colombia: Why are they protesting?
also Maduro: Lack of medicine and food supplies
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on February 24, 2019, 12:34:00 pm
editwhiletyping: I had a thought, if Guyana joined into the coalition, things could get diplomatically complicated. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba#Schomburgk_Line)
Quote
In 1850 both Britain and Venezuela reached an agreement whereby they accepted not to colonize the disputed territory, although where this territory began and ended was not established.

Excellent. That is some peak governmenting.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on February 24, 2019, 12:51:37 pm
I think is akin to the Somalia situation were the UN blue helmets did nothing, the US did nothing (I mean both they efforts went to waste) and finally the African Union had to step in.

Here we could simply skip the first parts and go directly to the last one. However the AU equivalent,  the OEA (or OAS as you migth know it) does includes USA.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Reelya on March 06, 2019, 06:12:27 am
This video came down my recommended ones, about Venezuela. Thought it was worth sharing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HeNCbXVHrR8
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on March 06, 2019, 07:33:42 am
Oh fuck, I had a sinking feeling about the video when the guest had a "film" about the assassination of Hugo Chavez.

At this point I'm pretty jaded and became very intolerant for this kind of stupid leftist shit. He's obviously proMaduro and in my book that puts you on the retarded list.

The truth about Venezula is that people like me can't feed correctly their families even if working like a mule 24/7 because the horribly corrupt and misguided or even malicious administration this mafia implemented. Period.

This people that run the country are criminals. This is a fact no douche with a horrible and stupid hat can conviceme otherwise. Period.

Everyday I have to make choices about how many can I eat to stave off starvation in order to left as much food possible for my wife and kid. This horrible reality is something I'm sure this  pro-comunist jerk surely didn't check on their Pleasantville tour

As for the pictures of those huge red protest against the US intervention:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/bc.marfeel.com/maduradas.com/ridiculo-los-milagros-del-photoshop-vtv-muestra-una-avenida-bolivar-repleta-la-realidad-otra-imagen/%3fmarfeeltn=amp

Slide down to the Twitter videos and see the official channel "truth" vs reality.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2019, 07:06:01 am
well, have the same thing but from the right:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pDAxKrSvPQ

Makes the same point near the end about the Guaido rallies being populated by very white people well-dressed with cellphones, rather than the starving masses that you'd assume from the media. The different racial profile of the two parties seems to be a thing that commentators on both the right and left are noticing. The pro-Guaido politicians are very white people in a very non-white nation.

It's the elite who want Guaido. They'll send all your oil to Texas and all your money to Miami. That's the plan, basically. They want the good old days back, when about 5% of the Venezuelan population are reaping about 95% of the oil money, who all have holiday homes in Florida and send their kids to ivy-league colleges in the USA.

Sure Maduro sucks. Maybe he's Stalin. But, that doesn't mean you nod and say "Maybe Mr Hitler over here would do a better job". The plan actually is that they starve you down with sanctions until you're willing to accept the blatant oil-company lackeys taking over the country with open arms.

EDIT: Actually, the core problem probably comes down to the oil industry, and virtually every other difference of policy is meaningless before that:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/01/29/charting-the-decline-of-venezuelas-oil-industry/#67dd5cce4ecd

Guaido's plan is to return to past policies of bringing in foreign companies to pump the oil. i'll just note that in the good old days, oil companies paid only 1% of the value of oil in royalties to Venezuela, and oil is a capital-intensive industry, so creates almost no jobs:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3732224.stm
Quote
BBC: Venezuela has announced that it is increasing the royalties paid by foreign oil companies from 1% of the sale price to 16.6%.

Given that basically before Chavez foreign oil companies paid nearly zero percent of the oil-revenue as taxes, then the decline in revenues can't really be blamed on falls in oil price/oil production. It is in fact down to the sanctions mostly.

Here's the general pattern of oil-rich nations:
https://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/13/avoiding-the-curse-of-the-oil-rich-nations/
... which pretty much describes Venezuela even before the socialists had anything to do with it. Back when oil companies paid a whopping 1% of the value of the oil to the nation that owned the oil.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on March 08, 2019, 08:32:02 am
Isn't it Guaido (no Chrome, I do not mean "emoji")?


Anyways, I can't help but get a niggling feeling that neither of those Youtube channels is a particularly trustworthy source...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2019, 08:46:59 am
I think that last point is unfounded. An untrustworthy source is one that chops up, takes out of context or misrepresents the news or public figures. That's not true of these sources. The first is a live unedited interview with Greg Palast, who is a pretty well-reknowned investigative journalist:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Palast

Long history working with the BBC and The Guardian. It's not like this guy is Infowars or Daily Kos or something. If the guy says some things you haven't heard of, it's maybe worth looking into how or why he thinks that, rather than say "who's this schmuck, he disagrees with what I, mr nobody, happens to already believe".

The second source is the direct channel run by Ron Paul, who isn't some nobody, he's a retired US Congressman, and he served on (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ron_Paul#Committee_assignments) the "United States House Committee on Foreign Affairs" which, you'd assume, would give him some plausibility when talking about US foreign affairs policy and the CIA, considering he would have been getting official intelligence briefings on foreign affairs directly from the CIA.

I think these sources are in fact more credible than some hacked-up news reports that chops peoples statements up into word-salad then presents it with a pre-decided narrative. Sure, they're not as polished as the sleazy TV evening news, but that doesn't make them non-credible.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 08, 2019, 06:49:42 pm
It'd be an extreme stretch to compare Maduro and Guaido to Stalin and Hitler since neither Maduro or Guaido have done anything remotely close to being labelled as genocide.

Guaido kind of sounds more neoliberal or neoconservative rather than right wing.

Meanwhile, Venezuela is undergoing it's second day of near total blackout, due to problems at what appears to be the only power source for the entire country (that's the impression I got), a hydroelectric dam.

Also, Bolsonaro (or 'Pockets' as I think you guys in Brazil nickname him, sometimes. It was discussed earlier in the thread) is being hosted by Trump at the WH on March 19th. (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2019/mar/08/donald-trump-latest-news-live-alabama-paul-manafort-russia-hr1-bill-vote?page=with:block-5c82f8fee4b0cf92e5a53846#block-5c82f8fee4b0cf92e5a53846)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Reelya on March 08, 2019, 11:50:38 pm
Yeah, when the hydro dam runs dry they have electricity problems, due to drought.

But, most stories won't mention the drought just "socialism" for being to blame. I guess it rains more when you have good old fashioned capitalism.

Or, more likely they'd use "market forces" and jack up the price so only the people in the rich suburbs can afford electricity. Which would be fine and dandy according to the typical mainstream commercial media in Venezuela.

For example, here's a Reuter's article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-blackouts/venezuela-begins-power-rationing-as-drought-causes-severe-outages-idUSKCN1GS2M5

Quote
Venezuela begins power rationing as drought causes severe outages
Anggy Polanco, Isaac Urrutia

SAN CRISTOBAL, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela imposed electricity rationing this week in six western states, as the crisis-hit country’s creaky power grid suffered from a drought that has reduced water levels in key reservoirs needed to run hydroelectric power generators.

Then, of course, the BBC runs the same thing, except excludes mention of the drought completely:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47504722

Quote
The power cuts, which started on Thursday, have been caused by problems at a major hydroelectric plant.

Venezuela depends on its vast hydroelectric infrastructure, rather than its oil reserves, for its domestic electricity supply. But decades of underinvestment has damaged the major dams, and sporadic blackouts are commonplace.

Uh, there being no water in the dams because of the drought is apparently not worth mentioning. the detail of rationing due to limited water supplies, which Reuters tells you about, is conveniently omitted entirely. It's just the dams don't work so there are sporadic blackouts, according to BBC.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: hector13 on March 09, 2019, 09:14:25 am
Well they are right, a drought is a problem at a hydroelectric dam, which will cause it not to really work well.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on March 09, 2019, 09:19:40 am
And drought is a case of poor balancing between (water) supply and demand, which is indicative of not having enough (wet) capitalism.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: hector13 on March 09, 2019, 09:25:11 am
Exactly. If people weren’t selfish and using the water to live, maybe they’d have electricity.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: wierd on March 09, 2019, 09:29:02 am
No silly, drought can be a sign of serious climatic changes, especially given that Venezuela is an equatorial region nation.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/where-climate-change-fits-into-venezuela-rsquo-s-ongoing-crisis/

What they really need to do down there, is stop with the corruption, stop with the bullshit, build wind and solar energy production, and drop in some desalination plants.  If they dont, they are going to experience ever increasing agrarian hardships, food shortages, and other significant upsets from the persistent changes in their climate induced by anthropogenic climate change.

Maduro would rather ignore all those things, and just continue being a fiscally inept despot.
It remains to be seen what Guaido will do.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 09, 2019, 10:21:53 am
@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on March 09, 2019, 10:23:06 am
@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.
But is it midnight oil?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 09, 2019, 10:42:34 am
@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.
They have oil, I dont think they have enough oil refineries. I dont think crude oil is appropiate for most types of generators
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on March 09, 2019, 10:43:56 am
@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.
I have no doubt that the people pushing a casus belli against Maduro (please do not mistake this as support for the cretin) would then go and say "Look! The Communist Leftists are BURNING THE OIL! How heinous!"


As a whole, though, this Maduro business is yet another example of some corrupt and inept fuck hiding behind Comunism and other Left-leaning ideologies, helping the reactionaries further vilify anyone who dares to wear red.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 09, 2019, 11:02:29 am
@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.
They have oil, I dont think they have enough oil refineries. I dont think crude oil is appropiate for most types of generators

Yeah, that's probably a good point if they don't have the refineries to do that. editwhiletyping: I've also heard that the type of oil that they extract is the real heavy crude that takes more effort to refine, so it gets sent elsewhere to be mixed with lighter crude.

@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.
I have no doubt that the people pushing a casus belli against Maduro (please do not mistake this as support for the cretin) would then go and say "Look! The Communist Leftists are BURNING THE OIL! How heinous!"


As a whole, though, this Maduro business is yet another example of some corrupt and inept fuck hiding behind Comunism and other Left-leaning ideologies, helping the reactionaries further vilify anyone who dares to wear red.

Of course though, the reactionaries never vilify corrupt and inept fucks hiding behind right leaning ideologies. Not meant solely at Trump, just in general.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on March 09, 2019, 11:36:52 am
Since we're talking about reactionaries, here's something I forgot to post when it happened:

President Pocket Monster of Brazil states that democracy and freedom only exist when the military wants them to exist (https://g1.globo.com/rj/rio-de-janeiro/noticia/2019/03/07/democracia-e-liberdade-so-existem-se-as-forcas-armadas-quiserem-diz-bolsonaro-a-militares-no-rj.ghtml)

Also said that there is a "gender" balance in his ministries because "each female minister is worth 10 male ones" (http://g1.globo.com/globo-news/jornal-globo-news/videos/v/bolsonaro-diz-que-ministerio-e-equilibrado-porque-cada-ministra-vale-por-dez-homens/7441149/)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 09, 2019, 11:45:35 am
At first, the second one sounds like extraordinary praise of women, but when taken into context of Bolsonaro...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on March 09, 2019, 11:47:35 am
At first, the second one sounds like extraordinary praise of women, but when taken into context of Bolsonaro...
For those who may not be aware of his opinion of women, he outright said in bloody public that his daughter was born from "a moment of weakness" on his part.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Reelya on March 09, 2019, 04:42:09 pm
@reelya: Eh? I didn't say anything about socialism being involved, just dinging the overreliance on hydro. They have oil, they could be burning oil (yes, I know, global warming and all) for power in an emergency.

... but I didn't even reference you, i was talking about the BBC and similar.

My wording was "But, most stories won't mention the drought just "socialism" for being to blame. "

This references "most stories" not "smjjames"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on March 09, 2019, 10:17:26 pm
Oh for fucks sakes! Finally I'm able to connect. Dunno if I'll have connection again or what. The battery our phones were charged on a car by  a good samaritan.

We have no water and cooking gas is running low, not as if we have much left to cook. The three of us are okay for now if any of you is wondering.

The failure was due poor management and the corruption that allowed our power system to be destroyed by the lack of maintenance. Apparently the Guri damn had 3 or 4 turbines damaged and several other equipments. Of course the Maduro mafia says is the extreme rigth wing and USA. We have been on the brink of this collapse for months if not years and they did nothing but keep stealing the money instead of invest it on maintenance, upgrades and new power plants.

On the other hand people are dying, newborns are dying on the hospitals. My wife and I have prayed every nigth for those little souls. Maduro does indeed allowed by both action and inaction a genocide of our people. In the J.M. de Los Rios children hospital in Caracas the mafia just took their last generator away and left dozens of children and newborns to die.

Guys, there's no much food left at home and what little we had has been eaten to avoid going bad or have already started to spoil. On the streets there is people charging 1 dollar per 10 minutes charge  (people with generators). And a bag of ice or a bottle of water is 10$ and I really dont have money beyond like 8$ worth of bolivares on my bank account which is inaccessible anyway just as my PayPal savings/escape money, all useless now.

Gasoline is low too due the pumps not being able to work without electricity and the queues for the stations with generators (3 in total here in my city) are kilometers long. Not that I have a car on my own but this has furthered the collapse.

If this keeps on going for as long as the worst cases states (a week or even more longer, there have been already 3 days), I have to be honest, I doubt we'll make it through, not in one piece. I mean maybe I'll have to scavenge from the trash but surely won't be the only one, and violence is already beginning to undertake the streets. I'll fight for my family to the bitter end if it comes to it.

If I don't post here ever again, well, just don't vote for socialism, promise me.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on March 10, 2019, 06:25:44 am
Very sorry to hear about that, man... Really hope things work out.


I've heard the narrative that aid from places like the US are being stopped because of carrying support and weapons for revolutionary forces, but...  I have to wonder, is it worth it? Is letting people starve and die from poor medical care better than the potential of starting an armed insurgency? I really don't know. It's definitely a clusterfuck of a situation, and it's not getting less complicated.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 10, 2019, 10:55:43 am
@LordBaal: If you're able to respond, does Guaido come off as left wing rather than right wing (for all the support that he has) to you? Just wondering as the way Reelya described him sounds a bit more neoconservative, if anything.

As for not voting socialism, while I completly get the position an experience you're coming from, your definition and my definition of 'socialism' are quite different. However, I'll agree to disagree wth you on it.

Very sorry to hear about that, man... Really hope things work out.


I've heard the narrative that aid from places like the US are being stopped because of carrying support and weapons for revolutionary forces, but...  I have to wonder, is it worth it? Is letting people starve and die from poor medical care better than the potential of starting an armed insurgency? I really don't know. It's definitely a clusterfuck of a situation, and it's not getting less complicated.

Is that the excuse Maduro is using to deny aid? Wouldn't be surprised if the US is* supplying rebel forces though. However, he's denying aid from everybody, not just the US.

The last attempt I heard of fell through before it even got to the material support phase, and sounded more like an excuse for the US to do intel gathering ops. So, who knows at this point.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Magistrum on March 10, 2019, 09:22:23 pm
Yeah, maduro is running off with some tall tales about how the USA wants to kill every good man out there, but he is blocking Brazilian emergency aid, which makes no sense. They were started before pocket got power even, by the sympathizing Worker's Party government, so I don't really get how much posing as a tough guy is supposed to help him.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on March 13, 2019, 06:35:26 am
 We just spend 5 days without electricity. Our food reserves are depleted and by the grace of the higher powers we are fine.

However yet another neighbor hanged himself. You might think is for the 5 days without power, but since we are already beaten and low, cut the power and you got people by the balls.

As for Guaido, he comes form Voluntad Popular, a center left progressive party (as described by themselves). Guys, there's officially NO rigth parties on Venezuela. People here seem to think that being against the revolution makes you a Republican redneck or something thanks to the massive propaganda and indoctrination.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Doomblade187 on March 13, 2019, 10:20:53 am
Huh. I didn't know it was possible to have the opposite political problem that we have up here with right wing parties.

Guaido is probably at most right a moderate democrat here.

May your neighbor rest in peace.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 13, 2019, 10:48:44 am
I didn't think Guaido was a Republican redneck or anything, just wasn't sure where his politics were. Also, given (US) Republicans calling Democrats 'socialists' and calling Maduros regieme socialist (whether it deserves that label or not), one might get the impression that they were supporting a right winger in Guaido, hence my confusion.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on March 13, 2019, 12:49:34 pm
By here I mean here in Venezuela, not the forum :)

The party he belongs to, and virtually all parties here are in fact suscribed to socialist international. No really rigth wing here. Kinda like your mirror in fact as Doom points out.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: scriver on March 13, 2019, 02:16:24 pm
May I ask what you think should be done regarding the oil and the ownership of it, Baal?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on March 13, 2019, 04:01:12 pm
I think privatization is not the way. We had a public company that was the example of the oil industry around the globe. If things change enough and we can recall the human talent we could have it again. But rigth now 20 years of abuse, corruption and idiocy have melted it to the ground.

Failling that it could be that the only way is to allow a partial overtake of the oil industry by private companies that could help rebuild but this would also means contracts so they get a piece  of the pie for God knows how many time. But I honestly this would not be necessary.

As for the oil revenue the transparency and public access of records is a must. Also the stipends and subsided gasoline should die. I mean, we shouldn't pay a premium like in countries with no oil, but rigth now is ridiculous that you can fill a tank and simply say you don't have any money and drive away. You could fill 315 cars with 1$ if you want, and not because that's the price, but because that's the exchange rate divided by the smallest bill on course accepted rigth now. I think we should pay just enough for a profit that would ideally ensure the continuous production and future investments, repairs and upgrades. At least until we caught up with the rest of the world with electric vehicles, which probably will take us 30~40 years.

The issues with our oil is that while is a lot, is also very heavy and either you have specially tailored refineries or mix it with lighter petroleum. Currently we need to mix it because the local refineries are destroyed and the one in the US that did it is our of the hands of Mauro thankfully.

On the other hand we gifted a lot of oil to Cuba, or better yet, to the Castro's. Not sell, gifted. That just ended as Gusto just ended that crap thankfully.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on March 13, 2019, 06:40:12 pm
So today there was a school shooting at a public school in the state of São Paulo (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-47558141). Two masked gunmen barged into the school during break time and opened fired. They killed 6 kids, two employees of the school, and the owner of a nearby shop before offing themselves.

What a damn tragedy.

And of course the usual procession of cretins decided to spout the usual bullshit you oft hear in the US when this happens (https://g1.globo.com/sp/mogi-das-cruzes-suzano/noticia/2019/03/13/veja-a-repercussao-do-ataque-a-escola-em-suzano.ghtml). I'm translating the most egregious below. Originals are included beneath the translated quote. With one exception, I've cut out parts of the quotes to save on work since its the usual statement of how horrible this situation is.

Quote from: Hamilton Mourão, Vice President
My opinion: today we see these kids addicted to videogames. And violent videogames, that's all they do. I have grandchildren and I see my grandchildren many times diving into this. We don't like to say 'back in my day', but when I was a child or when I was a teenger, we just played ball, we flew kites, we played marbles. And we don't see these things anymore.

---

Minha opinião: hoje a gente vê essa garotada viciada em videogame. E videogames violentos, só isso que fazem. Eu tenho netos e vejo meus netos muitas vezes mergulhadora nisso aí. A gente nunca gosta de falar 'no meu tempo', mas quando eu era criança ou era adolescente, a gente jogava bola, a gente soltava pipa, jogava bola de gude. E isso a gente não vê mais essas coisas.


Quote from: Flavio Bolsonaro, Senator and son of Pocket Monster Sr.
Another tragedy caused by a minor and that attest to the failure of the poorly-thought disarmament statute, which is still being enforced.

--

Mais uma tragédia protagonizada por menor de idade e que atesta o fracasso do malfadado estatuto do desarmamento, ainda em vigor.

Quote from: Major Olímpio, Senator
I feel defeated as policeman and congressman in sight of the tragedy that occurred in the Prof. Raul Brasil school in Suzano. I lament, cry and make my prayers for the victims of these bastards, but not for the death of two bandits. Enough hipocrisy! While firearms are illigal, only the illigals will have guns! Failure and naughtiness* of the 'farce of the disarmament politics' that has armed criminals and impeded self-defense. Another sad tragedy that shows the necessity of reducing penal age**. Bandits have no age. Our schools should be places of protection to our children and sadly they are not safe! We urgently need to revise our public safety policy, BANDITS HAVE NO AGE, and this tragedy only reaffirms that we need to reduce penal age NOW!

If there had been the citizen with a registered gun inside the school, teacher, servant, retired police officer working there, he could've minimized the scope of the tragedy.


*It sounds weird in english, but it's the proper translation. The word has a more serious connotation in Portuguese.
**Couldn't think of a good way to translate. In short, people with less than 18 years currently are processed differently in the prison system.
---

Sinto-me derrotado como policial e como parlamentar diante da tragédia que ocorreu na escola Prof. Raul Brasil em Suzano. Lamento, choro e faço minhas orações pelas vítimas desses canalhas, menos pela morte do dois bandidos. Chega de hipocrisia! Enquanto as armas forem ilegais, apenas os ilegais terão armas! Fracasso e safadeza da 'farsa da política desarmamentista' que armou criminosos e impediu a legítima defesa. Mais uma triste tragédia que mostra a necessidade da redução da maioridade penal. Bandido não tem idade. Nossas escolas deviam ser lugar de proteção para nossas crianças e infelizmente não estão seguras! Precisamos urgentemente rever a nossa política de segurança pública, BANDIDO NÃO TEM IDADE, e essa tragédia apenas reafirma que precisamos reduzir a maioridade penal JÁ!

Se tivesse o cidadão com a arma regular dentro da escola, professor, servente, policial aposentado trabalhando lá, ele poderia ter minimizado o tamanho da tragédia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Ghills on March 14, 2019, 09:38:46 am
Oh for fucks sakes! Finally I'm able to connect. Dunno if I'll have connection again or what. The battery our phones were charged on a car by  a good samaritan.

We have no water and cooking gas is running low, not as if we have much left to cook. The three of us are okay for now if any of you is wondering.

The failure was due poor management and the corruption that allowed our power system to be destroyed by the lack of maintenance. Apparently the Guri damn had 3 or 4 turbines damaged and several other equipments. Of course the Maduro mafia says is the extreme rigth wing and USA. We have been on the brink of this collapse for months if not years and they did nothing but keep stealing the money instead of invest it on maintenance, upgrades and new power plants.

On the other hand people are dying, newborns are dying on the hospitals. My wife and I have prayed every nigth for those little souls. Maduro does indeed allowed by both action and inaction a genocide of our people. In the J.M. de Los Rios children hospital in Caracas the mafia just took their last generator away and left dozens of children and newborns to die.

Guys, there's no much food left at home and what little we had has been eaten to avoid going bad or have already started to spoil. On the streets there is people charging 1 dollar per 10 minutes charge  (people with generators). And a bag of ice or a bottle of water is 10$ and I really dont have money beyond like 8$ worth of bolivares on my bank account which is inaccessible anyway just as my PayPal savings/escape money, all useless now.

Gasoline is low too due the pumps not being able to work without electricity and the queues for the stations with generators (3 in total here in my city) are kilometers long. Not that I have a car on my own but this has furthered the collapse.

If this keeps on going for as long as the worst cases states (a week or even more longer, there have been already 3 days), I have to be honest, I doubt we'll make it through, not in one piece. I mean maybe I'll have to scavenge from the trash but surely won't be the only one, and violence is already beginning to undertake the streets. I'll fight for my family to the bitter end if it comes to it.

If I don't post here ever again, well, just don't vote for socialism, promise me.

I'm so sorry.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Magistrum on March 14, 2019, 08:42:43 pm
Quote from: Flavio Bolsonaro, Senator and son of Pocket Monster Sr.
Another tragedy caused by a minor and that attest to the failure of the poorly-thought disarmament statute, which is still being enforced.

--

Mais uma tragédia protagonizada por menor de idade e que atesta o fracasso do malfadado estatuto do desarmamento, ainda em vigor.
Which is great, because...

(https://www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br/mesmo-armado-me-senti-indefeso-o-melhor-argumento-contra-as-armas-e-de-bolsonaro-por-kiko-nogueira/7547f69a-aa72-4ddd-a063-4a422efc72f2/)

In the red underline, "Even armed, I felt defenseless."
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on March 14, 2019, 09:11:37 pm
I'm so sorry.
Don't be, unless you are Mauro or Chavez isn't your fault.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on March 14, 2019, 09:15:30 pm
Quote from: Flavio Bolsonaro, Senator and son of Pocket Monster Sr.
Another tragedy caused by a minor and that attest to the failure of the poorly-thought disarmament statute, which is still being enforced.

--

Mais uma tragédia protagonizada por menor de idade e que atesta o fracasso do malfadado estatuto do desarmamento, ainda em vigor.
Which is great, because...

(https://www.diariodocentrodomundo.com.br/mesmo-armado-me-senti-indefeso-o-melhor-argumento-contra-as-armas-e-de-bolsonaro-por-kiko-nogueira/7547f69a-aa72-4ddd-a063-4a422efc72f2/)

In the red underline, "Even armed, I felt defenseless."

What's that article clipping about? Something involving a motorcycle (my guess at the translation of motocicleta) and being assaulted (assaltantes? plus the underlined bit that was translated)?

edit: The International Energy Agency is saying that the Venezuelan oil industry is in danger of collapsing (https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/15/intl_business/venezuela-oil-industry-blackout/index.html), due to economic factors and from the US sanctions starting to really bite. I know people have been saying that the Venezuelan oil industry is having issues during this crisis, but when the international watchdog on the oil industry gives a warning, it's probably getting serious.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Magistrum on March 15, 2019, 09:56:45 pm
What's that article clipping about? Something involving a motorcycle (my guess at the translation of motocicleta) and being assaulted (assaltantes? plus the underlined bit that was translated)?
Two robbers stole his motorcycle even tough he was armed and is a former military officer.

Mega old news, but it is a nice showing of how dumb his rhetoric is.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Culise on April 30, 2019, 07:09:16 am
Reported coup attempt underway in Venezuela (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news): parts of the military and internal security forces have defected to join Guaido and the legislature in open opposition to President Maduro.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on April 30, 2019, 07:10:49 am
No, those men are finally comming around to actually obey the constitution and the true president, which is not Maduro.

Is not a coup, is the end of a coup.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on April 30, 2019, 07:25:10 am
I of course managed to misread the headline as "Venezuela opposition leader claims SOUP is under way", which... Well, that's certainly one way of doing it.

Definitely not something I'd trust the military with doing, but okay.

EDIT: Latest from the live news Guardian link


Quote from: Patricia Torres in Caracas
"Right now, I can see lots of regular, normal people and their children walking spontaneously towards Plaza Altamira [scene of anti-Maduro protests] to show their support for Guaidó and López’s and all the national assembly members who are there. They’re carrying flags and the atmosphere is very cheerful at the moment."

She has also spoken to Mariani Otero, a 32-year-old housewife, who is draped in a Venezuelan flag. She told Patricia:

Quote from: Mariani Otero
"Venezuelan brothers and sisters, today, 30 April, I tell you we will see each other in a free Venezuela, the Venezuela we all want and are fighting for

We’re waiting for all those who’ve gone abroad to come back and join us. Kisses! We’ll see each other in a free Venezuela!"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 09:38:01 am

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
It seems I'll eat my words?
Perhaps. Either way, here's hoping you stay safe in the present situation.

Thanks dude! I'll keep us safe.

Yeah, ongoing coup attempt. This would usually go in the Latin American politics thread, but given how this is such an internationally involved ongoing crisis....  Gonna cross post in there anyway for posterity or whatever.

Sec. of State even coined a name for it, 'Operacion Libertad' (https://www.cnn.com/americas/live-news/juan-guaido-venezuela-operation-freedom-live-updates/h_6c9fcc50bc0fcf02e43b939132ba402c)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on April 30, 2019, 09:57:27 am
Sec. of State even coined a name for it, 'Operacion Libertad' (https://www.cnn.com/americas/live-news/juan-guaido-venezuela-operation-freedom-live-updates/h_6c9fcc50bc0fcf02e43b939132ba402c)
Well, I mean, the US Sec. of State wasn't the first one to use the term. Fairly sure Guaidó was using the phrase before the states started really picking up on things.


Aaand the latest from the Guardian feed:

Juan Guaidó is addressing demonstrators in Altamira, Caracas. He said he has been in communication with the military for years but today he knows they are not supporting Maduro - “el dictador.”

Operation Liberty has started, he said.

“Today it is clear to us that the Armed Forces are with the people and not with the dictator,” Guaidó told the crowd. “We know that all Venezuelans are in favor of change and the Constitution “

In a Tweet, Guaidó also declared “the moment is now.”

“The country’s 24 states have taken to the road: the street without return. The future belongs to us: the people and Armed Forces united by the cessation of usurpation.”
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 10:02:59 am
TBH, that was before I noticed Guaido had already used the term.

Anyways, it appears to be a relatively bloodless, as coups go, coup so far
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: EnigmaticHat on April 30, 2019, 10:30:56 am
Posting to watch.

I hope if the coup is successful the international community lends its aid to rebuilding the Venezuelan economy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on April 30, 2019, 10:33:51 am
No, those men are finally comming around to actually obey the constitution and the true president, which is not Maduro.

Is not a coup, is the end of a coup.
It's a coup. You can wholeheartedly agree that it is a righteous one, but, by definition, it is a coup.

A coup is, to simplify it a bit, when members of the State topple the current regime. A revolution, meanwhile, is when a group that is not part of the State does the same thing.

However this shitshow ends, I just hope it won't have any intervention by any country that is not called Venezuela.



Meanwhile, in Fascist Brazil:
There's a law project that mandates that any university course with less than 50% rate of graduation compared to how many are entering it will either get cut or restructured. (https://www.camara.leg.br/proposicoesWeb/fichadetramitacao?idProposicao=2195232) While the fucking president himself defended that Sociology and Philosophy are useless because they make no money, the main victims of this will be Physics, Math and Computer Science.

Oh and because Universities are "ToO PoLiTiCaL!!!11one", they'll be getting less budget (https://educacao.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mec-cortara-verba-de-universidade-por-balburdia-e-ja-mira-unb-uff-e-ufba,70002809579).

But wait, there's more! Minister of Education defends that students can film teachers* who speak out against fucking fascists. (https://www.brasil247.com/pt/247/brasilia/391717/Ministro-da-Educa%C3%A7%C3%A3o-defende-pr%C3%A1tica-fascista-em-sala-de-aula.htm) In this case the teacher dared to criticize fascist guru Olavo de Carvalho (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olavo_de_Carvalho) who says such sage things as: "Pepsi is sweetened using the cells of aborted fetuses". I won't be throwing a link to his own video on the subject because it contains shock-images of gore and thus is against forum rules.

*Filming, photographing or using the image of anyone without their explicit permission is illegal, by the way.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Kagus on April 30, 2019, 10:41:08 am
Some of the soldiers have started firing their weapons into the air in order to scare off the other side. Sounds like things are getting dangerously close to bloodshed.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 10:47:20 am
No, those men are finally comming around to actually obey the constitution and the true president, which is not Maduro.

Is not a coup, is the end of a coup.
It's a coup. You can wholeheartedly agree that it is a righteous one, but, by definition, it is a coup.

A coup is, to simplify it a bit, when members of the State topple the current regime. A revolution, meanwhile, is when a group that is not part of the State does the same thing.

However this shitshow ends, I just hope it won't have any intervention by any country that is not called Venezuela.


It appears to be a combination coup and revolution/popular uprising. Gotta wonder if the coup part is spontaneous or planned though.

As for intervention besides Venezuela itself, might want to keep an eye on Cuba, considering how it seems to have taken over part of Venezuelas military. I wouldn't be surprised if the US had some sort of behind the scenes support of the coup though.

Some of the soldiers have started firing their weapons into the air in order to scare off the other side. Sounds like things are getting dangerously close to bloodshed.

I've heard some things about gunshots being fired, but no injuries reported atm. I did say 'so far', it very well could turn bloody as Maduro probably won't go down without a fight.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: LordBaal on April 30, 2019, 10:52:21 am
Is not a coup on the basis they (Maduro and Co) aren't the state anymore, not since last january 10th and remain in power by momentun and brute force, not by true democratic mechanisms.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: Teneb on April 30, 2019, 10:55:40 am
It appears to be a combination coup and revolution/popular uprising. Gotta wonder if the coup part is spontaneous or planned though.
Usually, only the leadership matters when it comes to figuring out which is the case.

Anyway, shit is going down right now so expect the thread to get updated pretty fast.

Is not a coup on the basis they (Maduro and Co) aren't the state anymore, not since last january 10th and remain in power by momentun and brute force, not by true democratic mechanisms.
A de-facto State is still a State, my friend. And States don't need to be democratic. They just need to Be. You could argue that Guaidó has splintered the State into his own and Maduro's, but he was part of the State when he began the whole process, which is what tends to be used when it comes down to classification.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 11:04:07 am
Well, it's being used in the broader definition of a coup which is to 'remove a leader by force', though everybody seems to be using different terms for the whole thing, mainly depending on the point of view. Guaido's ambassador to the US is calling it a constitutional crisis. (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news?page=with:block-5cc86c2b8f08c89bd906b512#block-5cc86c2b8f08c89bd906b512)

It appears to be a combination coup and revolution/popular uprising. Gotta wonder if the coup part is spontaneous or planned though.
Usually, only the leadership matters when it comes to figuring out which is the case.

Anyway, shit is going down right now so expect the thread to get updated pretty fast.

Is not a coup on the basis they (Maduro and Co) aren't the state anymore, not since last january 10th and remain in power by momentun and brute force, not by true democratic mechanisms.
A de-facto State is still a State, my friend. And States don't need to be democratic. They just need to Be. You could argue that Guaidó has splintered the State into his own and Maduro's, but he was part of the State when he began the whole process, which is what tends to be used when it comes down to classification.

As I said, the word used depends on your point of view.

Starting to get bloody now (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news?page=with:block-5cc86e5f8f08d5e277b57bd6#block-5cc86e5f8f08d5e277b57bd6). Context is that a video shows National Guard troops running over protestors, but the video isn't in the link itself, but is linked at the The Guardian liveblog post.

edit: *sees thread title change* I wouldn't call it a 'Venezuelan civil war' since it doesn't really meet the definition of a civil war, more of a popular revolt. If theres any counterprotestors clashing against the protestors, I haven't heard anything about it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Teneb on April 30, 2019, 11:12:57 am
Hence the question mark. It could be the start of one. If it calms down enough that it doesn't get to that point, and I hope that's what happens, I'll change it to something less alarmist.

EDIT: Went and changed it to please the People.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on April 30, 2019, 11:57:35 am
The words civil unrest invariably makes me think in civilization ii and iii.

Anyway, I dont think we are poised for a civil war although confrontations and skirmishes are prone to occur amongst the diferent groups of military and civilians from  both sides. At the moment it seems it's way less than half the military is backing Guaido but who knows... they are calling more people to the street to show our unrest and discontent and there are tons of rumors and gossip. I'll stay put here with a large stick and a knife just in case some unarmed or ligth armed punk want to come in, which is unlikely anyway since we haven't much and is really aparent.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on April 30, 2019, 02:29:41 pm
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 03:38:45 pm
Belgium is kind of a special case though. Not sure what Belgium going without a proper government for almost 600 days has to do with the current situation in Venezuela.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: EnigmaticHat on April 30, 2019, 03:55:02 pm
Belgium didn't have an elected government, but the non-elected officials didn't stop working during that time.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on April 30, 2019, 04:08:20 pm
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on April 30, 2019, 06:14:12 pm
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 06:41:46 pm
On a sidenote according to Bild (...) Maduro was dissuated by the russians to flee to Cuba.

That's according to Sec. of State Pompeo's words. Russia, naturally, replied with 'No we didn't'.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Border Block
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 30, 2019, 06:42:31 pm
Posting to watch.

I hope if the coup is successful the international community lends its aid to rebuilding the Venezuelan economy.

“lends its aid” = “seizes the sweet, succulent opportunity of filling a power vacuum”
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: ChairmanPoo on April 30, 2019, 06:45:44 pm
for what I've read it seems the coup is a bust.  A few groups people, incl Leopoldo Lopez and 24 of Guaido's original 100 soldiers have taken refuge in some embassies in Caracas. Seems to point to low expectations of success
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 06:55:13 pm
Yeah, they never got anywhere close to their goal (they may or may not have nearly made Maduro flee the country though) and from a blogpost on The Guardian, apparently they had more support previously but some of the support balked and Guaido moved up the timetable to today.

We'll see whether Maduro goes brutal crackdown or not. I know he didn't do anything remotely brutal with previous protests, but dictatorships tend to react to situations like this brutally.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on April 30, 2019, 07:37:47 pm
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 08:59:31 pm
Could just be because it's the most recent coup that has attracted international attention like this.

No idea about the Turkey coup, but from a The Guardian liveblog post, it sounds like Guaidos hand got forced. It was apparently going to be done at a somewhat later date, but Guaidos arrest was imminent (or they thought it was) and most of the strong military support that they had, balked at the last minute when they decided to move up the date to today.

Also, one has gotta wonder where Bolton is getting his intel from (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news?page=with:block-5cc8f82f8f08d5e277b5803c#block-5cc8f82f8f08d5e277b5803c)... I saw his earlier claim as BS straight away since if those aides really were plotting secretly, it'd seem like a REALLY bad idea to call out the fact that they exist, let alone call them out by name.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on April 30, 2019, 09:42:42 pm
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on April 30, 2019, 10:36:36 pm
Well wasn't the thing with turkey that shortly after they got a new constitution? I know this is wild speculation but could it have been planned that support dwindles in the last minute? Like, via a false sense of assurance?

If it was planned, it certainly wasn't planned by Guaido.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 01, 2019, 02:34:55 am
one has gotta wonder where Bolton is getting his intel from (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news?page=with:block-5cc8f82f8f08d5e277b5803c#block-5cc8f82f8f08d5e277b5803c)...
A naked man has few secrets; a flayed man, none
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 01, 2019, 05:48:18 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Well at any rate this ended up being more of the same, or so it seems. Yesterday a lot of streets were blocked and protests were held until late.

Let's see what happens today, but I dont have high hopes. Hey at least I'm not eating my own words.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Kagus on May 01, 2019, 06:33:06 am
Let's see what happens today, but I dont have high hopes. Hey at least I'm not eating my own words.
Unfortunately, you're not eating a whole lot else either...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 01, 2019, 06:53:10 am
Hahaha... see what you did there... well I have power AND internet at the same time, praise be R'hllor!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: feelotraveller on May 01, 2019, 02:15:58 pm
Venezuala, Iraq, Libya, Iran, differences notwithstanding, it seems that Coca-Cola is not the only black death on the planet.  ;)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 01, 2019, 06:32:56 pm
Also, one has gotta wonder where Bolton is getting his intel from (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/apr/30/venezuela-opposition-leader-juan-guaido-claims-coup-underway-live-news?page=with:block-5cc8f82f8f08d5e277b5803c#block-5cc8f82f8f08d5e277b5803c)... I saw his earlier claim as BS straight away since if those aides really were plotting secretly, it'd seem like a REALLY bad idea to call out the fact that they exist, let alone call them out by name.

Could also be trying to sow doubt in Maduro or his administration.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 02, 2019, 05:36:14 am
Yesterday there were more protests, some of them turned into riots. Not much info besides that. The mob insists everything is in order and we should carry on but today there are more protests scheduled. Ph and the body count already started.

We got our power cut twice instead of a single time wich is odd but no unherad off. And currently there's no internet, and my phone data is unreliable and unestable at best.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on May 02, 2019, 08:37:36 am
Yesterday there were more protests, some of them turned into riots. Not much info besides that. The mob insists everything is in order and we should carry on but today there are more protests scheduled. Ph and the body count already started.

We got our power cut twice instead of a single time wich is odd but no unherad off. And currently there's no internet, and my phone data is unreliable and unestable at best.

the mob or The Mob? ;)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: scourge728 on May 02, 2019, 08:46:10 am
Post to hear more about the problems in Latin America
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: thvaz on May 02, 2019, 09:26:06 am
Yesterday there were more protests, some of them turned into riots. Not much info besides that. The mob insists everything is in order and we should carry on but today there are more protests scheduled. Ph and the body count already started.

We got our power cut twice instead of a single time wich is odd but no unherad off. And currently there's no internet, and my phone data is unreliable and unestable at best.

the mob or The Mob? ;)

I think he means the ultimate mob, the state.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 02, 2019, 09:55:01 am
The Mob as in mafia, no the pitchfork and torches one, that would be us. Darn, I forgot you need capitalization in English more than in spanish.

Just saw a video of a national broadcast that was underway were the defense minister just openly state "they are trying to bought us" and Maduro's reaction was so fucking genuine and scaredy glaring him as he turns his head and locks on with Maduro's.

Until now they all have stoically rejected any claims of being in contact with anyone from the US and sudenly yes, this confirm that at least some bargains were cooking under the table.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on May 02, 2019, 10:04:44 am
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 02, 2019, 03:20:12 pm
Here it is:
https://twitter.com/Knesix/status/1123942390698586114?s=20
"They pretend to buy us" would be the literal translation.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Teneb on May 02, 2019, 03:39:11 pm
Here it is:
https://twitter.com/Knesix/status/1123942390698586114?s=20
"They pretend to buy us" would be the literal translation.
I think it's "They intend to buy us", rather than pretend.

I haven't figured out yet if the guy you linked is pro- or anti- Maduro, but I partially agree with his assessment on Maduro's own reaction. I say partially because I see it less as a scared glare and more as sudden suspicion as to the intentions of the minister.

His eyes don't go wide in surprise so much as they narrow. It's hard to see the actual eyes in the video, I'm mostly going with the eyebrows.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: ChairmanPoo on May 02, 2019, 04:50:49 pm
Here it is:
https://twitter.com/Knesix/status/1123942390698586114?s=20
"They pretend to buy us" would be the literal translation.
I think it's "They intend to buy us", rather than pretend.

I haven't figured out yet if the guy you linked is pro- or anti- Maduro, but I partially agree with his assessment on Maduro's own reaction. I say partially because I see it less as a scared glare and more as sudden suspicion as to the intentions of the minister.

His eyes don't go wide in surprise so much as they narrow. It's hard to see the actual eyes in the video, I'm mostly going with the eyebrows.
I agree with this
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on May 02, 2019, 05:40:08 pm
Here it is:
https://twitter.com/Knesix/status/1123942390698586114?s=20
"They pretend to buy us" would be the literal translation.
I think it's "They intend to buy us", rather than pretend.

I haven't figured out yet if the guy you linked is pro- or anti- Maduro, but I partially agree with his assessment on Maduro's own reaction. I say partially because I see it less as a scared glare and more as sudden suspicion as to the intentions of the minister.

His eyes don't go wide in surprise so much as they narrow. It's hard to see the actual eyes in the video, I'm mostly going with the eyebrows.
I agree with this

Doesn’t help that the video is a bit grainy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on May 05, 2019, 08:29:43 pm
Guaidó has said that he is considering asking the US for military intervention (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-48172520). Though it sounds more like he’s ‘keeping all options open’ and it’ll set up a showdown between Trump and Bolton because Bolton wants to fight half the globe whereas Trump doesn’t.

Also, Pompeo thinks Iran of all countries is involved in Venezuela. The only connection I can think of is OPEC, but if Pompeo wants to make Venezuela seem even more like a pawn in Great Power games, so be it /s

Incidentally, how would South American countries take it if Guaidó invited them rather than the US doing military intervention on its own initiative? Obviously there would be those who would still grumble about American imperialism, but since most of the meddling around in South America wasn’t at any local governments request.....
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Magistrum on May 05, 2019, 08:37:25 pm
We probably wouldn't take the bait. It would be a lot of trouble for the good of no one. We might be terrified of the current situation, but a foreign intervention always worsens things. It would only radicalize Maduro supporters and is unlikely to solve anything. But I have been proven how stupid this can get every single time I challenge the feasibility of going lower, so take that into account.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on May 05, 2019, 08:48:08 pm
I’m not saying it’s a good idea, was just wondering how it’d be perceived.

As for Brazil not taking the bait and joining in, Bolsonaro seems like quite the warhawk, or at least military-glory-hawk. I mean, he’s not banging war drums AFAIK, but he’s all ‘Make the military great again!’. At least that’s my perception.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: dragdeler on May 06, 2019, 05:42:28 am
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: JoshuaFH on May 06, 2019, 05:58:20 am
ptw
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 06, 2019, 06:00:52 am
Hi Josh, welcome to the party! Not THAT party comrade, but this party!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on May 23, 2019, 09:56:07 am
ptw
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 23, 2019, 10:03:02 am
Currently in the queue at a gas station with my brother in law, I arrived here at 3am, is currently 11am. He arrived at 5am. No signs of the station opening.

Its raining and we are inside the car roasting ourselves to death because the other option is opening the windows and flood the car. Turning it on is out of question because he has no gas, hence we are here.

Its like a fucking jungle here. Add this I couldn't have a shower this morning because he had no water.... is moments like this I... just hope for a better tomorrow.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: wierd on May 23, 2019, 10:18:17 am
Considering the circumstances, Baal, have you considered a syngas generator?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFO4kidcgqs

Surely, there is no shortage of combustible garbage?  An old klunker from the 70s to 80s is the BEST for this kind of conversion.  TERRIBLE for the environment, but since you are kinda short on options, and sugar cane is probably in robust supply for combustion, why not?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 23, 2019, 01:50:43 pm
2:50pm. Almost 12 hours so put 40lt of gasoline.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: feelotraveller on May 23, 2019, 05:32:08 pm
Yeah, the US sanctions are really fucking people up.

The resigning ambassador to Italy, Isaías Rodríguez, had this to say a couple of days ago:

"“I leave without rancour and without money, my wife has just sold the clothes her previous husband gave her in order to survive in the face of the US embargo. I’m trying to sell the car I bought when I arrived at the embassy and as you know I do not have a bank account because the gringos have sanctioned me and the Italian bank has closed its doors to me."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/21/venezuelas-ambassador-to-italy-resigns (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/21/venezuelas-ambassador-to-italy-resigns)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 23, 2019, 06:47:32 pm
Not the first time this happens, last time there weren't sanctions. Isaias Rodriguez migth fool people that don't know him, not only he was the master mind behind the killing of prosecuter Danilo Anderson, he's a huge tieve. People here laughed at his patetic attempt to appear as a depauperated guy.

He "worked" on PDVSA for some time, were he was paid a comision for every barrel of oil produced. This when the production and prices were high.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: scourge728 on May 23, 2019, 09:24:28 pm
tieve
my google skills aren't enough for me to figure this one out
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on May 23, 2019, 09:44:24 pm
Given the context, I took it to mean 'piece of shit' or asshole or similar type remark. And yeah, I don't think anybody would really give a damn about the ambassador when regular people are suffering more than he.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: wierd on May 23, 2019, 11:37:59 pm
My brain parsed it as "Thief"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: LordBaal on May 24, 2019, 05:28:25 am
For 200 points weird got it rigth. Sorry folks I generally correct those orthography gaps whenever pointed out but we were without power until now.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: feelotraveller on May 24, 2019, 05:29:59 am
And yeah, I don't think anybody would really give a damn about the ambassador
Perhaps...
Quote

when regular people are suffering more than he.
but fully in agreement.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Magistrum on June 12, 2019, 09:16:30 pm
Holy shit! (https://theintercept.com/series/secret-brazil-archive/), this is nuts (https://theintercept.com/2019/06/11/brazil-lula-ro-khanna-operation-car-wash/).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on June 12, 2019, 09:18:53 pm
Holy shit! (https://theintercept.com/series/secret-brazil-archive/), this is nuts (https://theintercept.com/2019/06/11/brazil-lula-ro-khanna-operation-car-wash/).

Talk about an AmeriPol crossover...... Reading the thing, I'm interested to see his reasoning.....

edit: Oh, it's due to some expose saying that a judge corrupted the whole thing up. Not sure why Rep. Ro Khanna is asking the Trump admin to investigate it. If anything, it'd be some international or UN court that would do it as it's not even in the USs jurdicision.

edit2: Didn't the previous Brazillian President before Lula also get caught up in the so called 'car wash' scandal? I suppose it's not surprising that the judge was corrupt as well. Brazil is a real mess.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Magistrum on June 12, 2019, 09:49:39 pm
Yeah, the thing implies that the whole judgment was a farse and the veredict already decided from the start, everyone is freaking out and taking sides. I thought it was bad enough before. Well, the more savvy people weren't surprised at all, since Moro went straight from his position to the incoming opposition cabinet and the president already promised giving him a position in the supreme court.

I'll cross to the ameripol I guess.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: wierd on June 12, 2019, 11:54:34 pm
What, you mean cronyism is real outside the US?

UNPOSSIBLE!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on June 13, 2019, 12:14:21 am
edit to previous post: Or rather the one after him, the first Brazillian woman President, forget her name XD

It's probably not likely that Bolsonaro had a hand in any of it and is just rewarding someone he sees as an ally.

It kind of brings up the question of, is the 'operation car wash*' corruption actually real? Since the whole corruption of the proccess brings into question the charges, it's only natural to wonder how much of them are trumped up (not sorry for the pun).

*What I know of, or at least part of the scandal is that they were doing something to a lake, but were using fake material instead of whatever they were supposed to do. It sounds way bigger than just that though and not sure where the car wash part comes in.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Magistrum on June 13, 2019, 07:47:59 am
Yes, operation car wash* is now ubder heavier scrutinity from the public because of that. We had big corruption scandals in the past, so not many of us doubt that the crimes uncovered by the operation are real. The problem is that now everyone that had a "pet bandit" as it is usually said here, imprisoned due to car wash can are now screaming foul play from the top of their lungs.

*Way, way bigger. It is called car wash because it started as a investigation into a car wash being used to launder money(heh).

Edit: Man, Moro and Dallagnol were working together with Supreme Judge Fux to stop the Squid interview (Which they succeeded, albeit with an unconstitutional decision by Fux), their texts:


Mensagem de 22 de abril de 2016

13:04:13 Deltan: Caros, conversei com o FUX mais uma vez, hoje
Dear gentlemen, spoke with FUX once again, today

13:04:13 Deltan: Reservado, é claro: O Min Fux disse quase espontaneamente que Teori fez
queda de braço com Moro e viu que se queimou, e que o tom da resposta do Moro depois foi
ótimo. Disse para contarmos com ele para o que precisarmos, mais uma vez. Só faltou, como
bom carioca, chamar-me pra ir à casa dele rs. Mas os sinais foram ótimos. Falei da importância
de nos protegermos como instituições
Reserved, of course: The Min[inister] Fux said almost spontaneously that Teori wrestled Moro and got burned, and that Moro's following response tone afterwards was great. Said to count on him for what we need, once again. All that was left, like a good carioca[Person from Rio de Janeiro], invite me to his home lol. But the signals were great. Talked about the importance of protecting ourselves as institutions.

13:04:13 Deltan: Em especial no novo governo
Specially in the new government

13:06:55 Moro: Excelente. In Fux we trust
Execellent. In Fux we trust

13:13:48 Deltan: Kkk
lol

---------

They talked about Teori, the former judge responsible for the investigation, who died in a terrible helicopter crash with no survivors and a lot of conspiracy theories are cropping up again.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on June 13, 2019, 10:16:37 am
Time to rebuild Brazil from scratch? That is a hell of a deep corruption.

I knew Brazil had corruption issues, but that bad? I thought it was mainly the monetary sort of corruption (like the car wash scandal and the thing with that lake), this is like, a level above that. Also, with the way the Republicans act, it seems like they'd only be a few steps away from this kind of corruption.

I'm curious as to what Bolsonaro has said or thinks about all this. Time to see if he drops Moro like a radioactive potato?

And yeah, I've heard of that helicopter crash, seemed pretty suspicious for sure, but no conclusion was reached to my knowledge.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: GPeter on June 13, 2019, 11:54:16 am
While the conversations and everything that has been revealed so far is indeed really bad. Something has caught my attention with these news. Usually every journalist tries to protect their source of information, specially if that source works in "Illegal" ways. While Intercept did bring up some nasty shit that was previously hidden, they did 2 "mistakes" that make me a little suspicious (Not claiming that everything going on is fake though). First (Correct me if I'm wrong) they upright claimed to have gotten that information with the help of hackers, what kind of journalism group/blog simply yells to everybody that they work with hackers? Since Hacking is Illegal bascically everywhere... And also, so far, not a single screenshot has been released, or a video, an audio file, nothing. You can also notice that, in the conversation Magistrum showed above, the time of the messages has something suspicious:

Mensagem de 22 de abril de 2016

13:04:13 Deltan: Caros, conversei com o FUX mais uma vez, hoje
Dear gentlemen, spoke with FUX once again, today

13:04:13 Deltan: Reservado, é claro: O Min Fux disse quase espontaneamente que Teori fez
queda de braço com Moro e viu que se queimou, e que o tom da resposta do Moro depois foi
ótimo. Disse para contarmos com ele para o que precisarmos, mais uma vez. Só faltou, como
bom carioca, chamar-me pra ir à casa dele rs. Mas os sinais foram ótimos. Falei da importância
de nos protegermos como instituições
Reserved, of course: The Min[inister] Fux said almost spontaneously that Teori wrestled Moro and got burned, and that Moro's following response tone afterwards was great. Said to count on him for what we need, once again. All that was left, like a good carioca[Person from Rio de Janeiro], invite me to his home lol. But the signals were great. Talked about the importance of protecting ourselves as institutions.

13:04:13 Deltan: Em especial no novo governo
Specially in the new government

13:06:55 Moro: Excelente. In Fux we trust
Execellent. In Fux we trust

13:13:48 Deltan: Kkk
lol

Notice how Deltan sends 3 messages, one them quite big, not only on the same minute, but also in the same second(13:04:13). Now, I consider myself a fast typer, but this is a whole new level of fast typing. Jokes aside, that could mean two things, either it's a fake conversation forged by the "hackers", supported by the fact that we don't have any screenshots so far. Or Deltan could have said that to someone else, and then redirected the messages to Moro, which then involves a third person, which then, involves yet more investigation into it. From my perspective, either it is all fake, or it's even worse that we think.


EDIT: Hello Magistrum, long time no see...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Magistrum on June 13, 2019, 03:03:37 pm
Hey there, how's life been treating ya? Ready for the general strike tomorrow?

First (Correct me if I'm wrong) they upright claimed to have gotten that information with the help of hackers,
They didn't claim that in article. It was claimed by some of the current government supporters that it was obtained illegally in order to render it unusable for legally persecuting the participants of the conversation.

Notice how Deltan sends 3 messages, one them quite big, not only on the same minute, but also in the same second(13:04:13). Now, I consider myself a fast typer, but this is a whole new level of fast typing. Jokes aside, that could mean two things, either it's a fake conversation forged by the "hackers", supported by the fact that we don't have any screenshots so far. Or Deltan could have said that to someone else, and then redirected the messages to Moro, which then involves a third person, which then, involves yet more investigation into it.
Yes, current understanding is that he was coordinating with fellow prosecutors in the case in a separate chat group of the persecution.(Which Moro wasn't part of, since he was the judge). It is implied in the start: "Dear gentlemen", that he was talking to many people. He sent it to that group and them forwarded to Moro. Since he was using Telegram, the time stamp on the messages is the time when he forwarded them.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: GPeter on June 13, 2019, 03:43:28 pm
Hey there, how's life been treating ya? Ready for the general strike tomorrow?

First (Correct me if I'm wrong) they upright claimed to have gotten that information with the help of hackers,
They didn't claim that in article. It was claimed by some of the current government supporters that it was obtained illegally in order to render it unusable for legally persecuting the participants of the conversation.

Notice how Deltan sends 3 messages, one them quite big, not only on the same minute, but also in the same second(13:04:13). Now, I consider myself a fast typer, but this is a whole new level of fast typing. Jokes aside, that could mean two things, either it's a fake conversation forged by the "hackers", supported by the fact that we don't have any screenshots so far. Or Deltan could have said that to someone else, and then redirected the messages to Moro, which then involves a third person, which then, involves yet more investigation into it.
Yes, current understanding is that he was coordinating with fellow prosecutors in the case in a separate chat group of the persecution.(Which Moro wasn't part of, since he was the judge). It is implied in the start: "Dear gentlemen", that he was talking to many people. He sent it to that group and them forwarded to Moro. Since he was using Telegram, the time stamp on the messages is the time when he forwarded them.

Ok thanks. So that leaves me with only one suspection. Why don't we have any screenshots? I need screenshots dammit!

Honestly though, this is something I used to talk about with my father and we both agreed with it. I still believe that Lula is corrupt and deserve jail, I mean, so many people close to him arrested, he can't be the "saint guy" of the group. But he did suffer some chasing, I don't think Bolsonaro would've won the elections if Lula was competing. It makes me sad though, that we had so many good options (Álvaro Dias and João Amoedo being my favorites) other than those two, and the people still decided to go with them.


Hey there, how's life been treating ya? Ready for the general strike tomorrow?

Sorry, did not catch the reference there...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Magistrum on June 14, 2019, 07:51:34 am
Ok thanks. So that leaves me with only one suspection. Why don't we have any screenshots? I need screenshots dammit!
We are all waiting on it, but people suspect it being a backup download from the telegram website, and it only spits out a txt, so the screenshots would be quite disappointing. It is unlikely they are holding the guy's phone.

Hey there, how's life been treating ya? Ready for the general strike tomorrow?
Sorry, did not catch the reference there...
Greve geral mano! I already gave my guys the day off, nothing will get done today, I'm sure. The mobilization in my city will be one block away from my shop.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: GPeter on June 14, 2019, 08:04:02 am
Hey there, how's life been treating ya? Ready for the general strike tomorrow?
Sorry, did not catch the reference there...
Greve geral mano! I already gave my guys the day off, nothing will get done today, I'm sure. The mobilization in my city will be one block away from my shop.

OHH, right! I'm not much into the them because 1_ I work in a Shipping Company (In the offices, not in the trucks) and 2_ I study at night on a Little Course (Got it? Haha kill me) and they barely pay attention to that. And also I live in a small city, 120k habitants...
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on June 30, 2019, 10:19:40 am
This is interesting, a Russian connection in Uruguay (https://www.axios.com/juan-sartori-uruguay-presidential-election-russia-7656ad74-1113-4e64-8da5-a4997d6cc2df.html). Uruguay's Presidential primaries are tomorrow and he could very well become Uruguays next President. The interesting thing about him is that he has Russian connections in the form of being married to the daughter of a Russian oligarch, plus the fact that he's spent 10 times more than any other candidate and his interest in politics is pretty recent.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on July 12, 2019, 02:45:25 pm
Brazillian nepotism, HO! (https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/americas/jair-bolsonaro-son-us-ambassador-intl/index.html). (Bolsonaro wants to make one of his sons the US ambassador. Maybe Trump can make Ivanka the ambassador to Brazil or something, heh. Not that it'll likely get past the US Senate.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Teneb on July 12, 2019, 03:23:09 pm
Brazillian nepotism, HO! (https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/americas/jair-bolsonaro-son-us-ambassador-intl/index.html). (Bolsonaro wants to make one of his sons the US ambassador. Maybe Trump can make Ivanka the ambassador to Brazil or something, heh. Not that it'll likely get past the US Senate.)
Said son says he's qualified because "he made a hamburger in the US once".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on July 12, 2019, 03:25:53 pm
Brazillian nepotism, HO! (https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/americas/jair-bolsonaro-son-us-ambassador-intl/index.html). (Bolsonaro wants to make one of his sons the US ambassador. Maybe Trump can make Ivanka the ambassador to Brazil or something, heh. Not that it'll likely get past the US Senate.)
Said son says he's qualified because "he made a hamburger in the US once".
Oh okay that'll do it
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: smjjames on July 12, 2019, 03:34:48 pm
Brazillian nepotism, HO! (https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/americas/jair-bolsonaro-son-us-ambassador-intl/index.html). (Bolsonaro wants to make one of his sons the US ambassador. Maybe Trump can make Ivanka the ambassador to Brazil or something, heh. Not that it'll likely get past the US Senate.)
Said son says he's qualified because "he made a hamburger in the US once".

Also, quote from him in the article, "There will always be criticisms. I don't believe that me being considered for this position is nepotism. We're not just talking about any individual that is unqualified for the position."

nep·o·tism
/ˈnepəˌtizəm/
noun
noun: nepotism

    the practice among those with power or influence of favoring relatives or friends, especially by giving them jobs.

Don't know what his definition of nepotism is then.

While a Brazillian ambassadorship to the US is certainly among the cushier ambassadorships from there, you'd think it'd be taken with some seriousness. Then again, despots think alike, right?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: hector13 on July 12, 2019, 04:38:22 pm
Probably ‘cause he’s his son and not his nephew.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: scourge728 on July 12, 2019, 08:41:20 pm
I assume his thinking is that he's qualified so it's not nepotism
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: scriver on July 13, 2019, 04:12:45 am
Ironically just considering any random unqualified person would be less nepotistic.

Nepotist? Nepotismic? Nepotalione?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: JoshuaFH on July 14, 2019, 10:03:57 am
Yes waiter, I'll have the Nepotalione, with extra graft sauce. On the side I'd like some kickbacks, and to drink I'll have a cool glass of gerrymander.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: wierd on July 14, 2019, 10:13:36 am
Very good sir.  Will you also have something from the Porkbarrel?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Teneb on July 14, 2019, 11:22:08 am
Brazillian nepotism, HO! (https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/americas/jair-bolsonaro-son-us-ambassador-intl/index.html). (Bolsonaro wants to make one of his sons the US ambassador. Maybe Trump can make Ivanka the ambassador to Brazil or something, heh. Not that it'll likely get past the US Senate.)
Said son says he's qualified because "he made a hamburger in the US once".

Also, quote from him in the article, "There will always be criticisms. I don't believe that me being considered for this position is nepotism. We're not just talking about any individual that is unqualified for the position."

nep·o·tism
/ˈnepəˌtizəm/
noun
noun: nepotism

    the practice among those with power or influence of favoring relatives or friends, especially by giving them jobs.

Don't know what his definition of nepotism is then.

While a Brazillian ambassadorship to the US is certainly among the cushier ambassadorships from there, you'd think it'd be taken with some seriousness. Then again, despots think alike, right?
Also, the position? Been vacant for 4 months. When it fist became vacant, the pocket monster said he'd appoint someone "soon". Then his son reaches his 35th birthday. The VERY NEXT DAY? He is appointed as the ambassador. There's a minimum age of 35 to be ambassador.

But I'm sure he's totally qualified and the above facts are totally unrelated.

Faschs' gonna fasch.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Venezuelan Civil Unrest
Post by: Kagus on July 14, 2019, 12:13:50 pm
Brazillian nepotism, HO! (https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/12/americas/jair-bolsonaro-son-us-ambassador-intl/index.html). (Bolsonaro wants to make one of his sons the US ambassador. Maybe Trump can make Ivanka the ambassador to Brazil or something, heh. Not that it'll likely get past the US Senate.)
Said son says he's qualified because "he made a hamburger in the US once".

Also, quote from him in the article, "There will always be criticisms. I don't believe that me being considered for this position is nepotism. We're not just talking about any individual that is unqualified for the position."

nep·o·tism
/ˈnepəˌtizəm/
noun
noun: nepotism

    the practice among those with power or influence of favoring relatives or friends, especially by giving them jobs.

Don't know what his definition of nepotism is then.

While a Brazillian ambassadorship to the US is certainly among the cushier ambassadorships from there, you'd think it'd be taken with some seriousness. Then again, despots think alike, right?
Also, the position? Been vacant for 4 months. When it fist became vacant, the pocket monster said he'd appoint someone "soon". Then his son reaches his 35th birthday. The VERY NEXT DAY? He is appointed as the ambassador. There's a minimum age of 35 to be ambassador.

But I'm sure he's totally qualified and the above facts are totally unrelated.

Faschs' gonna fasch.

Life in the fasch lane.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: scriver on July 14, 2019, 01:10:51 pm
What? No, the fasch take the train
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: bloop_bleep on July 14, 2019, 02:03:52 pm
What? No, the fasch take the train

It’s mostly just to advertise their timeliness, though.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Magistrum on July 20, 2019, 06:52:35 pm
Pocket has just solved hunger it seems, says "Speaking about starving in brazil is big lie" (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/07/19/falar-que-se-passa-fome-no-brasil-e-uma-grande-mentira-diz-bolsonaro.ghtml)
Sure thing dude, no doubt about it, no way people are starving. (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2019/07/em-media-15-pessoas-morrem-de-desnutricao-por-dia-no-brasil.shtml)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Teneb on July 21, 2019, 09:06:15 am
Pocket has just solved hunger it seems, says "Speaking about starving in brazil is big lie" (https://g1.globo.com/politica/noticia/2019/07/19/falar-que-se-passa-fome-no-brasil-e-uma-grande-mentira-diz-bolsonaro.ghtml)
Sure thing dude, no doubt about it, no way people are starving. (https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2019/07/em-media-15-pessoas-morrem-de-desnutricao-por-dia-no-brasil.shtml)
I totally didn't see a man starving on the street yesterday. No sir.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Magistrum on August 05, 2019, 09:16:18 pm
Bolsonaro may not understand what nepotism is. When asked about how he will do once the senate blocks his obviously idiotic nomination for ambassador he answered:
"Sim, o Senado pode barrar sim. Mas imagine que no dia seguinte eu demita o Ernesto Araújo e coloque meu filho. Ele não vai ser embaixador, ele vai comandar 200 embaixadores e agregados mundo afora. Alguém vai tirar meu filho de lá? Hipocrisia de vocês"

"Yes, the Senate can block alright. But imagine that to following day I fire Ernesto Araújo [foreign minister] and put my son. He won't be ambassador, he will command 200 ambassadors and aggregates around the world. Is someone going to take my son out of there? Hypocrisy of you guys."

It seems he also doesn't understand what hypocrisy means. Tough I must admit, it feels weird to have him just announce "I'm committing a crime" to the press like that. I may have said it before, but it was funnier when I Just pointed and laughed at you Americans and your dumb president.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: smjjames on August 05, 2019, 11:12:51 pm
Does Brazil have nepotism laws? It may be like here in the US though where there is a nepotism law for putting family members in senate confirmable positions, but there are grey areas.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Teneb on August 06, 2019, 07:09:09 am
Does Brazil have nepotism laws? It may be like here in the US though where there is a nepotism law for putting family members in senate confirmable positions, but there are grey areas.
It's a grey area.


EDIT: ...aaaand now the pocket fascist is comparing himself to Johnny Bravo unironically, and his supporters (known now as "the cattle") are memeing about that as if it was a good thing. This is despite, y'know, Johnny Bravo being a parody of misogynistic, fragile masculinity. So a perfect fit, heh.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Magistrum on August 06, 2019, 01:48:39 pm
Note on the grey area thing: decreto 7203 makes it very much illegal, tough enforcement is pretty weak. Bolsonaro knows about that since he talked about having 'put relatives before nepotism was illegal' before.

The important part ia that the decree does not specify political nominations, but focus on government contracts.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: scriver on August 07, 2019, 05:26:20 am
Does Brazil have nepotism laws? It may be like here in the US though where there is a nepotism law for putting family members in senate confirmable positions, but there are grey areas.
It's a grey area.


EDIT: ...aaaand now the pocket fascist is comparing himself to Johnny Bravo unironically, and his supporters (known now as "the cattle") are memeing about that as if it was a good thing. This is despite, y'know, Johnny Bravo being a parody of misogynistic, fragile masculinity. So a perfect fit, heh.

Time to make hundreds of gifs of Johnny Bravo with Bolsonaro's head getting turned down by cartoon women
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: smjjames on August 27, 2019, 10:26:03 am
In other news, G7 countries offered money for Brazil to deal with the Amazon (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49479470). Bolsonaro said no and bitched about colonialism.

This is a beautifully succinct and poetic summary of basically the whole situation. You can even generalise it!

Quote
In other news, [thing involving Brazil]. Bolsonaro said no and bitched about colonialism.

To segue towards more Latin American centric, can't the other South American countries pressure him? After all, that smoke isn't going to contain itself to Brazil and it's already turning day to night in places. Plus theres the whole Mercosur-EU trade deal that is being threatened by Bolsonaro's activities and it sounds like it's a pretty major thing for even Brazil should it go through.

Also, Bolsonaro seems somehow even LESS diplomatically inclined than Trump because he once blew off the French FM (as mentioned by Macron as one of the things about Bolsonaro that pissed him off) by cancelling a meeting due to 'scheduling conflicts' or something and then showing up getting a haircut. Somehow Trump seems to have enough sense to not be caught like that when citing 'scheduling conflicts'.

All in all, I'm surprised he even tries to fight the fires in the first place (unless something of monetary value is threatened, OH WAIT, THE AMAZON HAS MONETARY VALUE!!!!!!!!11!!11! just in ways Bolsonaro apparently can't comprehend!) since theres clearly a 'let it burn' attitude/vibe I'm getting.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Kagus on August 27, 2019, 01:50:21 pm
All in all, I'm surprised he even tries to fight the fires in the first place (unless something of monetary value is threatened, OH WAIT, THE AMAZON HAS MONETARY VALUE!!!!!!!!11!!11! just in ways Bolsonaro apparently can't comprehend!) since theres clearly a 'let it burn' attitude/vibe I'm getting.
The ranchers are paying more money than the loggers.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Teneb on August 27, 2019, 03:00:19 pm
If anyone has wondered why I haven't talked about this sooner: it's because I'm too damn angry.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Doomblade187 on August 27, 2019, 03:44:39 pm
If anyone has wondered why I haven't talked about this sooner: it's because I'm too damn angry.
*Sends hugs*
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Trolldefender99 on August 27, 2019, 05:31:02 pm
If anyone has wondered why I haven't talked about this sooner: it's because I'm too damn angry.

I'm not even down there and it pisses me off. But its also incredibly depressing seeing the amazon get torn down...not just by fires, even before just immense amount of land lost to logging and farming (mostly logging though as far as I know). So many animals, native tribes and life lost in name of profit. And its gonna damage the entire south america which will effect the whole world.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: LordBaal on August 27, 2019, 07:46:23 pm
Didn't the fire started on communist Bolivia after some guys tried to clear a a part of the rainforest with fire and got out of hand? Not much twitter or news here, more pressing matters you see.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: LordBaal on August 27, 2019, 09:26:37 pm
Burn them all?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: Trolldefender99 on August 27, 2019, 09:27:53 pm
brazil president played fallout 3 and took the opening song "I want to set the world on fire..." literally

Okay bad semi sorta joke. But wanted to lighten the mood :(
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Nepotism Burgers
Post by: smjjames on August 28, 2019, 01:21:26 am
Didn't the fire started on communist Bolivia after some guys tried to clear a a part of the rainforest with fire and got out of hand? Not much twitter or news here, more pressing matters you see.

There's not really one fire at this point; it's several fires burning all at once. Some are in Bolivia, yes.

More like on the order of 2000 individual fire areas, at least that's what I've read, I think. May be thinking of a different thing associated, dunno.

Also, some of them started in Brazil but spread to other countries, that may be the Bolivia one.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Teneb on September 24, 2019, 02:53:28 pm
Sorry for the lack of source links, but I am giddy today. What I am not sorry for, however, is the fact that I will keep to my pledge to not say the current president's name until the end of his term.

First because of the utterly moronic speech the Bozo gave on the UN, showing the world he is worthy of no respect.

Second... because apparently he spent AN ENTIRE HOUR standing in place in one of the UN's corridors so he could meet Trump. And Trump just... gives him an incredibly quick handshake and leaves in the span of a mere 17 seconds while the Fascist Himself gushes. I actually laughed loud enough at this to startle people.

And of course, Biroliro's cattle are still trying to justify all of this trash so... have this incredibly relevant song from '79 (subtitled!) (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6-5fKfzlXQ)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: smjjames on September 24, 2019, 03:07:57 pm
I thought he couldn't attend because he had some surgery and docs said that he shouldn't travel that soon?

On one hand, the standing in the corridor for an hour and only meeting Trump for seconds either says that he has a fan cult of Trump that Trump would prefer the world to have and on the other, it seems like a hell of a burn (intentionally or not) by trump. And I guess on another, if he intended to get Trumps attention for more than all of 17 seconds, it just reveals how bad he is at diplomacy or something.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Kagus on September 25, 2019, 03:53:00 am
On one hand, the standing in the corridor for an hour and only meeting Trump for seconds either says that he has a fan cult of Trump that Trump would prefer the world to have and on the other, it seems like a hell of a burn (intentionally or not) by trump. And I guess on another, if he intended to get Trumps attention for more than all of 17 seconds, it just reveals how bad he is at diplomacy or something.

I guess we now know what sort of pocket monster he is.

He is a Zubat.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Magistrum on September 25, 2019, 03:57:24 pm
God, I thought the Brazilian press was going to be able to turn this in some kind of win for Pocket.

It was not possible. The sheer amount of embarrassment for being Brazilian is overwhelming. And I was around for 7-1.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: smjjames on September 25, 2019, 11:43:36 pm
God, I thought the Brazilian press was going to be able to turn this in some kind of win for Pocket.

It was not possible. The sheer amount of embarrassment for being Brazilian is overwhelming. And I was around for 7-1.

The fact that he looks like a giddy schoolgirl catching a glimpse of her fav rockstar (let me know if that's an overexaggeration or accurate) doing it certainly doesn't help either.

At least the UN didn't laugh at Trumps speech as happened last time, THAT was embarrassing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Reelya on September 26, 2019, 10:23:25 am
"giddy schoolgirl" and "favorite rockstar" haven't gone together since probably the 1980s
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: smjjames on September 26, 2019, 11:14:22 am
I'll admit that it's extremely stereotypical, and I sort of generically used rockstar as in 'teen idol', but that's sort of the appearance it gives, if exaggerated somewhat.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Kagus on September 26, 2019, 11:44:01 am
"giddy schoolgirl" and "favorite rockstar" haven't gone together since probably the 1980s

Remember; Kanye West is the greatest living rockstar in the world.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: scourge728 on September 26, 2019, 01:21:32 pm
depressing
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: scriver on September 26, 2019, 01:36:54 pm
"giddy schoolgirl" and "favorite rockstar" haven't gone together since probably the 1980s

Remember; Kanye West is the greatest living rockstar in the world.

Also possibly the next president of the USA iirc right?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Doomblade187 on September 26, 2019, 01:47:28 pm
"giddy schoolgirl" and "favorite rockstar" haven't gone together since probably the 1980s

Remember; Kanye West is the greatest living rockstar in the world.

Also possibly the next president of the USA iirc right?
I don't think he's actually running.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Magistrum on September 26, 2019, 09:22:00 pm
Maybe he can pull a Trump and grab the spotlight away from our shameful conduct.
Go for it America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Reelya on September 26, 2019, 09:52:06 pm
"giddy schoolgirl" and "favorite rockstar" haven't gone together since probably the 1980s

Remember; Kanye West is the greatest living rockstar in the world.

Also possibly the next president of the USA iirc right?
I don't think he's actually running.

He can still be the next president. Trump 2020 and then Kanye 2024*. Kanye likes Trump so he's not going to throw his metaphorical hat in the ring in 2020 as either Republican or Democrat.

*Although if Trump loses in 2020 then Kanye can't be the next president. But what Kanye will do is barge in during the swearing in ceremony and try and take over saying it was a stitch up and his homie should have won.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: dragdeler on September 27, 2019, 04:20:57 am
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: Reelya on September 27, 2019, 04:44:31 am
It's a joke, but it's a legitimate joke, not a random one.

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/kanye-west-president-2024-white-house-donald-trump-kim-kardashian-a8518051.html

Quote
Kanye West has said he is serious about a run for the presidency, but that it will not happen until 2024.

“If I decide to do it, it will be done, I’m not going to try,” the rapper and fashion designer said in a radio interview with Power 92 Chicago’s DJ Pharris, adding: “Yes, 100 per cent it could happen… 2024.”

West first announced plans for a White House bid during an appearance at the 2015 MTV Video Music Awards.

“I have decided in 2020 to run for president,” he declared at the time.

He's pals with Trump, and originally slated his run for 2020 but changed it to 2024. This part isn't the joke, this is seriously what he says he's going to do. My joke was to say that if Trump loses he'll jump up during the inauguration to claim it's a sham. The basis for that is that Kanye frequently does stuff like jump up on stage during those awards ceremonies to interrupt people's acceptance speeches, to say either that he should have gotten some award or a friend of his should have gotten an award. And BTW the relevant part is that eventually he get's an award. The thing is, just getting an award doesn't generate the media frenzy that losing and jump up to interrupt the winner does, so at the end of his award-acceptance speech, he announces he's running for president, which ensures he gets media buzz from it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: dragdeler on September 27, 2019, 09:27:22 am
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Title: Re: Latin American Politics: UN Loser
Post by: nenjin on September 27, 2019, 09:32:00 am
Also apparently Kim Kardashian has been quietly doing things of state, like negotiating the release of prisoners. (https://montrealgazette.com/entertainment/celebrity/kim-kardashian-helps-negotiate-another-prisoners-release/wcm/1b5984cf-817d-409b-a642-2a2f041b1356)

Nothing these days would surprise me when it comes to our political scene.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 10, 2019, 07:25:27 pm
Evo Morales was forced off the government of Bolivia (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50370013). Most media I can find is glossing over the fact that he was going to call for new elections since the last one may have been tampered with (which is a very strange move for someone who supposedly tampered with votes...), but the army, police and right-wingers have instead forced him to leave his post as President.

Anti-Evo protesters also set on fire the residences of Evo's political supporters, but instead of screaming bloody murder... the media is just saying it nonchalantly.

Also, who claimed that the elections were rigged in the first place? Why, the OAS of course! Which are totally not a tool for the US to throw its weight around.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 11, 2019, 03:47:25 am
I don't think the Bolivian protesters needed the OAS to tell them about election tampering, even with the allegations that the OAS is an American tool, which only seem to come up when a Latin American authoritarian who is on the left is being called out for election tampering and which never seem to have any elaboration. And the reason that the Bolivian protesters didn't need the OAS to tell them this is because it's about as clear as fucking day that the elections were tampered with even when you ignore the OAS. The live tallying of the votes abruptly stopped for 24 hours when 80% of the votes were tallied and the election was close enough to put Morales in for a runoff he quite possibly would lose, and then came back with 95% of the votes and Morales mysteriously JUST over that 10% margin he needed to avoid a runoff election.

Not to mention that this entire election only came to be because Morales exceeded his original constitutional term limits -- and not only that, but did so after having held a referendum in order to try and get exceeding his term limits approved, proceeding to lose that referendum, and then having the Supreme Tribunal (an organization which Morales created to replace the Supreme Court in 2012) grant him that term limit bypass despite the constitution for vague reasons.

The entire thing is marked from beginning to end with extraordinarily clear accounts of Morales trying his damnedest to hold onto power and bypassing democratic norms and institutions and even his own failed show votes time after time after time, and it doesn't honestly even take all THAT much time and effort to research and find all of these things out. Yet I see so many nuance-less, half-detailed arguments coming from the left when I look this up, because I frankly don't think that it's really about the facts of what actually happened in Bolivia for a lot of people on the left, but rather about whether or not one of the great figures of socialism in South America is losing power -- actually having to delve into the details potentially weakens the force of the arguments about America removing Yet Another Leftist President from power, and so doing so actively becomes something to be avoided.

Now, that said, there are some really fucked up things that have been done by some of the protesters that can be looked up, but you also can't dismiss the entire --and VERY large-- protests because of what has happened in some areas of Bolivia. Do you then dismiss protests in Hong Kong, in Iraq, in Indonesia on the grounds that there were violence? Are ALL of these protesters culpable? I don't think so, and I also don't think it lessens the reasons that they're protesting, even if justice does have to be brought to account when the dust settles.

(Now, if the military just takes power I'm going to be eating some of these words, but I would like to hope that Latin America is beyond at least that by now.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Reelya on November 11, 2019, 05:02:38 am
The modern Latin American pattern has moved on from "military assuming power". At least directly. Straight up Juntas just aren't expedient any more. It's more likely to be someone with who's a large landowner or has ties to the corporate sector now. That was the pattern that preceded the last wave of left-wing leaders: there were a ton of right-wing candidates with links to right wing para-miltaries and/or rapacious multinationals. It's not the army directly taking over any more, they just open up the nation for multinational corporate exploitation.

One example is Alvaro Noboa, who was the candidate running against leftist Rafael Corea in Ecaudor. Alberto Naboa was a banana plantation billionaire, known by Amnesty International for his excessive use of child labor and/or sicking death squads on his own workers who tried to unionize.

Presdient Uribe in Colombia goes without saying, a much worse version of the same thing, basically his whole family being implicated or in prison for various links to paramilitary death squads and drug dealing.

The example in Bolivia was a guy nicknamed "el gringo" because he spoke almost no actual Spanish. He was the son of wealthy Bolivians, and grew up mostly in their mansions/estates in Florida and Washington. Evo Morales won election because the Right put up a guy who was basically a pampered American who quickly tried to privatize the entire nation (water air, natural gas etc) and sell it cheap to American corporations.

EDIT: also something that's on-point when talking about Evo Morales and term limits is that term limits were only instituted by the Morales government in 2009. If you do a date-limited search on Google for "bolivia term limits" limited to up to 2005, you get this link:

https://www.jstor.org/stable/30025814?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
"Effects of Term Limits on Fiscal Performance: Evidence from Democratic Nations"

While the full text is paywalled, the excerpt in google search contains this phrase:
"Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, No term limits"

Point being, it was Evo Morales who imposed term limits in the first place. They came in in 2009, while he was elected in 2006. Sure, he ended up breaking that rule, sure, but it is clearly noteworthy that it's his government who put that rule in place in the first place, it wasn't a pre-existing law. So to paint him as a guy who's broken with pre-existing norms in Bolivia to run for office again, because of the term limits is kinda misleading. He effectively wrote that rule himself.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 11, 2019, 05:15:00 am
And yet folks like Correa and Morales and, of course, Maduro have also got into the business of blowing past term limits and weakening governmental checks on them so that they can centralize and maintain power to themselves (awful lot of judicial and legislative branches wholly superseded) -- these guys really aren't the champions of democratic government so much as they are the champions of the left in the cases where they're not so incredibly corrupt as to basically nullify  in the case of Correa and Morales, however, it's ended up blowing up pretty badly on them. There are reasons why the socialists got largely rolled out of SA.

But that said, it's not really like the neoliberals have done all that much better at all. People like PPK and of course Temer turned out to be as hopelessly corrupt as the people they railed against, and now you do genuinely have folks like Pinera and Moreno facing mass protest and mass discontent. And then there's fucking Bolsonaro, who I'm not sure is quite as neoliberal as he is just hard right, but who certainly doesn't stand out as a beacon of virtue among the anti-leftists.

To tell the truth, I really have no idea what's going to happen in South America. I don't think we're going to see a massive and lasting wave back to the left -- the political turnover against the socialist governments of SA has been so incredibly, remarkably thorough that the Bolivarians just sweeping in like nothing happened seems... far-fetched, to say the least. But neoliberal government clearly is on the receiving end of another popular political wave pretty much everywhere except Peru, and I'm really not sure what to think of Vizcarra at this point. I don't think it will be a unified continent of either neoliberals or left, though, to whatever partial degree it might even have been before. Will it be mixed? Will it be a spread of Bolsonaros? I sure as shit hope it's not the latter but...

(And on the matter of the edit... I do like that you pointed that out, I didn't know that and it's a good piece of nuance, but frankly, does it matter? It's a potential point in the favor of Evo Morales' political career that he instituted term limits [and in a constitution backed by popular referendum] but what does it mean if he then ignores those term limits directly against the result of a referendum, like what put them in in the first place? Does it mean that he since backed down from the things that drove that to be included in the 2009 constitution, or does it mean that he never intended them to actually end up applying to him? Neither of these options are great.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Reelya on November 11, 2019, 05:21:12 am
The point about term limits also applies to Venezuela. Notably, the right-wing coup in Venezuela in 2002 made a note of abolishing the 1999 (post-Chavez) constitution, including the new term limits*.

* I should note, I looked into this and there is a nuance. Previously you could have more than two terms, but not consecutively, whereas from 1999 you could have two terms, max, consecutive or not.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 11, 2019, 05:23:01 am
If politicians create term limits, and then promptly subvert them as soon as they would apply to the very people that created them, then they didn't really create term limits.

(Also, since I'm likely to sign off for tonight soon, I'd like to apologize -- I came off much more aggressively at Teneb than was warranted by his post, just because of frustrations with ways I had seen other people post. It's not right to take that sort of thing out on the first person I see taking a roughly related stance in a medium that I can actually respond in, and yet that's exactly what I did.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: scriver on November 11, 2019, 07:54:27 am
I'd vote for a guy named Noboa, he's definitely not a snake.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 11, 2019, 09:39:10 am
(Also, since I'm likely to sign off for tonight soon, I'd like to apologize -- I came off much more aggressively at Teneb than was warranted by his post, just because of frustrations with ways I had seen other people post. It's not right to take that sort of thing out on the first person I see taking a roughly related stance in a medium that I can actually respond in, and yet that's exactly what I did.)
It's fine. I am somewhat aggressive here because my country has been taken over by fascists and I'm angry that it seems like the same will happen to Bolivia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 11, 2019, 10:08:02 am
It sure looks like the military is about to take power, yeah. Unfortunately. :( Here's hoping they still hold those new elections, because the news was kind of unclear on that.

Edit: for the record, vote counting can organically have one candidate pull heavily forward suddenly. Happened in Seattle recently, actually. Not necessarily fraud, though I do agree the term limit dodge was shady.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 11, 2019, 10:42:55 am
Yeah, there'll be an "election" ran by masked death squads. I hope the Bolivian left has a backup plan or are at least fucking armed, because otherwise it'll be another Pinochet soon.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: notquitethere on November 11, 2019, 11:34:21 am
I think Morales has his heart in the right place, but power corrupts. There's always a temptation to stay on and consolidate. There are currently over a dozen cases of exactly this situation: constitutional reform to dismantle term limits to enable a president-for-life.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 11, 2019, 11:47:06 am
Evo Morales shut down the electoral system the day of the election when he was losing. Many hours later the system came back and he was the winner. Even the OEA said it and he was willing to make another election. The bolivian people wasn't having any of it, they guy was a criminal the second he tempered the elections. Good for them at least they'll get rid of the fucking socialism and is yet another country that is not getting it's gov funded by our already very impoverished pockets.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Magistrum on November 11, 2019, 02:10:06 pm
Careful everyone, we might go possible sham elections to very real military dictatorship, which is pretty harsh independent of what preceded it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 11, 2019, 03:01:14 pm
Aye, that's the concerning bit - the military was leaning on him to resign, as well as the police. Implications of them being rather supportive of the next president are worrying, given the potential for a military run (directly or otherwise) government.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 11, 2019, 09:13:51 pm
Here's two conflicting pieces on the election and whether it was fraudulent:

This CEPR (a think tank organization in Washington DC) document performs a statistical analysis and finds no evidence of statistically improbable changes in the progression of the pre-tally-interruption and post-tally-interruption vote counts, further performs simulations that state that the election results were likely, and accuses the OAS of making politicized statements with no evidence.
http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/bolivia-elections-2019-11.pdf?v=2

The OAS audit document (and this thing took a little effort to actually find) alleges physical manipulation of tally sheets and rerouting of the counting process to external, un-audited servers, and then performs a statistical analysis and finds that the very trends CEPR declared as statistically probable are statistically improbable.
http://www.oas.org/documents/eng/press/Electoral-Integrity-Analysis-Bolivia2019.pdf

These two accounts of things are completely contradictory, and neither of them actually responds to the other -- the OAS audit paper only refers to the results of the audit, and the CEPR paper actually doesn't cite the audit paper in question at all... I can't tell if the OAS analysis paper came after the CEPR paper or not, but that would be a reasonable explanation considering that we're still in a short timeframe afterwards.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 11, 2019, 11:49:07 pm
well, heh, that's kind of a given

Unfortunately, I don't actually fully understand the statistical analysis that goes on in either of these documents, though I will say that the official vote trend as analyzed by CEPR does have a pretty decent change in trend around the time of the cessation of the vote tallying, though the quick vote trend doesn't (I may want to come back later and take a fresh look at the statistical analyses used once it's not in the middle of researching both documents more heavily, so I can understand what the different methodologies used are.)

When it comes down to how the OAS alleges that the vote manipulation actually went down in terms of data and tally sheets... well, I guess that depends on whether you trust the OAS or the Morales government more.

I do tend to trust these election observers though -- I mean, they're being accused of being US puppets, but without failure whenever there's an election that's being called rigged, the election is taking place in circumstances and in a government that has already stacked the circumstances in some way or another to stay in power; elections don't take place in vacuums. In Morales' case, this came in the form of replacing the judicial branch with a tribunal which, while allegedly elected, has its candidates pre-picked by the legislature (dominated by his party), and then having that tribunal say it's a-ok to go for a fourth term and presumably beyond. For all Morales might have been a genuine champion of a lot of the causes that many people cherish, he put a lot of measures into place to make sure his rule wasn't in trouble, and when THAT starts happening is when it becomes a lot more likely that elections are doctored.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 12, 2019, 05:09:49 am
You know something is fishy when the useless OEA actually says something, and is confirmed when the guy that "won" says "lets have another election". Well besides the overwhelmingly issue of the system failing for x amount of hours during election day only to come back with him winning.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 12, 2019, 06:20:18 am
democracy is sus when bad man win election

democracy is sus when bad man offers a second election

democracy is safe when no election and military rule

democracy is safe when lithium goes north
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 12, 2019, 08:23:51 am
hey remember when the OAS certified Ashlord Bolsonaro's election was Extremely Legit after having a pocket judge jail his opponent for no reason

good times

does it smell like smoke in here or is that just me
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Magistrum on November 12, 2019, 09:41:35 am
Right-wing repression has started, and there are a few victims before public order is stabilized, even if this isn't a direct military power grab.

Some supporters of the new regime captured the mayor if their city and burned down the town hall.  (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50332167)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 12, 2019, 12:14:18 pm
democracy is sus when bad man win election

democracy is sus when bad man offers a second election

democracy is safe when no election and military rule

democracy is safe when lithium goes north
I tried thinking of a response to this for a few minutes but I did eventually realize that since it's just mockery --and brings nothing new to the table, at that-- there's not actually all that much that can be responded to without simply flailing around.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 12, 2019, 12:59:24 pm
Idle words are always behind void ideologies.
If we talk about "rigth wing" repression what is then what has happened here then? Left wing repression?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 12, 2019, 01:09:14 pm
I mean, let's not pretend that right-wing ideology is always thought out and well articulated, or even that it's inherently moreso than the left wing -- people, I think, tend to have many of the same behaviors when they feel very strongly about something and are in spaces where they're likely to be validated on these same strongly held beliefs, whether these beliefs are on the left or on the right.

...also, I do hold really strongly to the belief myself that two wrongs don't make a right. No matter what Morales has done and has not done (and his record is one that is checkered rather than explicitly terrible, he's not quite Maduro), it wouldn't actually make that burning and that assault and humiliation right -- and if things do go further there, from people in power, then Bolivia's in a bad place.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 12, 2019, 01:15:05 pm
The extremes touch each other used to say my grandad. Either extremes are just wrong. I don't pretend the extreme rigth wing nutjobs or heartless capitalists that do exploit their workers are rigth. But the communism and socialism just doesn't work. Well it does work for the new elite that comes on top like in any other system, just they are far more hypocrital pretending and preaching is for the good of everyone.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 12, 2019, 04:42:03 pm
my post is, as PM astutely noted pure mockery devoid of any information scratch that of my opinion towards the coup

there is no point in making a long detailed post if the responses will amount to accusing me of supporting deadly evil communist dictatorships. discussion doesnt work if nobody wants to change their minds

besides, i really do not see what kind of discussion could this become. there's not much to be fucking said about a literal military coup to oust a democratically elected president. to claim that the coup was a good thing for democracy without good reason is the hottest take of the week.

i will not bother to put any effort into debating arguments that do not exist.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 12, 2019, 05:08:50 pm
Well the military merely suggested him to renounce. His canditature wasn't legal to being with. He made a referendum to ask if he could run for a FOURTH term and he lost, but then simply wiped his ass with the results and asked his friends of the supreme court to allow him anyway. Then as he was lossing he tried to tamper with the elections and got caught.... people protested in the streets until he resigned. The police and military refused orders to suppress protesters with deadly force...

And only now that he is out of town the violence is scalating no in small part of what Im sure are members of the "bolivarian breeze".

But yeah it was totally a coup.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Magistrum on November 12, 2019, 05:30:36 pm
The problem isn't much what has happened but what will happen.
Right-wing repression is merely a reactionary turn against a perceived slight. It will die out as the situation improves, let's all hope that public order is restored quicky.
A coup isn't necessarily bad, and it would be definitely better to wait for that second election, but now we can't know. Maybe he would just ignore the problem and never do it.

I just want Brazil to fix our damn voting machines already.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 12, 2019, 05:45:14 pm
*stares as a distant observer*

Well, um, from what little I've read, it seems more complicated than just a military coup or the military acting alone. Usually in a military coup, the military takes control of power, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. This seems more political coup. Calling it a military coup seems to oversimplify the complexity of the situation. It doesn't quite fit the absolute dictionary definition since the military didn't start the whole thing, but still.

Anyways, the US and Russia have chosen their respective sides, so, I'm sure it's a heck of a lot of Cold War Deja Vu for people in South America.

A coup isn't necessarily bad, and it would be definitely better to wait for that second election, but now we can't know. Maybe he would just ignore the problem and never do it.

I just want Brazil to fix our damn voting machines already.

Coups are almost by very definition violent though, and rarely (if ever?) do they turn out for the better than before.

'coup' can definetly be used in a non-military intervention context, but in this case some are calling it a military coup when it didn't start as one.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Magistrum on November 12, 2019, 05:50:56 pm
You are basically right about how complex this all is.
The key point however, is as LordBaal so eloquently put:
Well the military merely suggested him to renounce.
Which you might recognize as a coup, no matter the intention or circumstances involved.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 12, 2019, 05:52:31 pm
The forum ate one of my posts, looks like.

But coups can totally not be violent, I had said in it but with more words and an example.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 12, 2019, 06:08:02 pm
I know bloodless coups can be and have been a thing, just that it looks like the military saying 'no, we won't/can't support you' was just the final straw before he decided to bail.

I'm probably thinking of the type where the person getting coup'd is physically forced out, it looks like this was of his own accord. But I'm pretty much just splitting hairs here as the dictionary definition doesn't say anything about physically. It's a coup in the sense of getting forced out all right, but whether it's strictly a military one is something that can be split hairs over.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 12, 2019, 07:52:36 pm
my post is, as PM astutely noted pure mockery devoid of any information scratch that of my opinion towards the coup

there is no point in making a long detailed post if the responses will amount to accusing me of supporting deadly evil communist dictatorships. discussion doesnt work if nobody wants to change their minds

besides, i really do not see what kind of discussion could this become. there's not much to be fucking said about a literal military coup to oust a democratically elected president. to claim that the coup was a good thing for democracy without good reason is the hottest take of the week.

i will not bother to put any effort into debating arguments that do not exist.
This really appears to me to be based off of a refusal to take anyone else in good faith — I’ve been trying my best to engage with other people in the thread honestly, but you’re basically making up a narrative out of whole cloth here that you’re going to get dogpiled on if you dare to invest any effort when that quite clearly isn’t the case based on the overall discussion in the thread. Like... look, I don’t spend a lot of time in the political threads down here because I often have similar worries, it’s not like you HAVE to immerse yourself in these discussions, but to come in and throw nothing out but mockery and accusations and ignore what isn’t favorable to said accusations and then further act like that’s the right thing to do is something that I find myself resenting somewhat, because it’s largely my own efforts I feel are being ignored. I mean, like, yeah, Baal is definitely mostly throwing out anti-socialist invective, but that’s pretty much just him
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 12, 2019, 09:54:05 pm
In the Simpsons show, at least on the Latino American sub there's a joke Homer say about Jimmy Carter making a bloodless coup.

Powder thanks for teaching me that word. Invective. Didn't knew it before. I apologize to anyone here if I've been insulting or you have taking anything I say here personal.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 12, 2019, 11:22:30 pm
https://twitter.com/CNNArgentina/status/1194399284210348033
This doesn't bode well for her declarations of herself as just pursuing another election immediately.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 12, 2019, 11:30:53 pm
https://twitter.com/CNNArgentina/status/1194399284210348033
This doesn't bode well for her declarations of herself as just pursuing another election immediately.

'The bible returns to the palace', is that Bolivia's version of 'Churchills bust returns to the White House'?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 13, 2019, 12:06:22 am
No, it's Áñez making a point of look how Christianity is coming back to Bolivia -- I don't actually know the intricacies of race and religion in Bolivia, but indigenous groups seem to have a history of conflict with Christian groups in Bolivia even when Christian themselves, and being that Morales was both socialist and highly pro-indigenous I suppose he'd then have been seen as anti-Christian. What this means that very much concerns me is that despite having just portrayed herself as seeking to immediately put through elections, Áñez is making a point of how a value will now take increased precedence in Bolivia through her succession of presidency, which makes me suspect she will want to use that power actively.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Magistrum on November 13, 2019, 12:27:13 am
Orthodoxy, Autocracy, and Nationality.

We are in for a wild ride.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 13, 2019, 12:40:22 am
Or could just be making a show of it, because politics.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 13, 2019, 02:58:04 am
I would certainly like that to be the case, smj -- I am not here to make prescriptive statements about the future, because predicting the future is a loser's game. Right now at the stage the Bolivia situation is at, we can only really take things as good signs or as bad signs, especially because we're not exactly going to be personally deciding the outcome; whatever happens will happen regardless of us. What this means, though, is that we really don't have much reason to avoid considering what we view as more or less likely to happen, and unfortunately as time goes on I begin to think the idea of an ultimately democratic resolution looks shakier and shakier. I am not dismissing it entirely, as it's not really as if I have grounds to make such a prediction, but I'm not getting more optimistic.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 13, 2019, 05:52:27 am
Well the most logical step is for them to have a new elections were most likely Mesa would win, or not, as the plot tickens. This is up to their congress I guess, which by now should have at least have it in the agenda and should be only waiting for the country to settle down again? However announcing elections should have that effect by themselves 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 13, 2019, 09:09:30 am
Or could just be making a show of it, because politics.
No. In South America, reactionaries are showing extreme christian fanaticism. Hell, the Brazilian Minister of Exterior (I guess it would be minister of foreign relations or whatever staters call theirs) is often called the Templar Minister because of how he spouts fanatic rethoric (including Deus Vult)... and he still pales compared to the Pocket Fascist himself.

So she ain't making a show of it. Odds are she truly believes Christianity is "under attack" and that she is restoring it to its rightful place of hegemony.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 13, 2019, 10:10:05 am
my post is, as PM astutely noted pure mockery devoid of any information scratch that of my opinion towards the coup

there is no point in making a long detailed post if the responses will amount to accusing me of supporting deadly evil communist dictatorships. discussion doesnt work if nobody wants to change their minds

besides, i really do not see what kind of discussion could this become. there's not much to be fucking said about a literal military coup to oust a democratically elected president. to claim that the coup was a good thing for democracy without good reason is the hottest take of the week.

i will not bother to put any effort into debating arguments that do not exist.
This really appears to me to be based off of a refusal to take anyone else in good faith — I’ve been trying my best to engage with other people in the thread honestly, but you’re basically making up a narrative out of whole cloth here that you’re going to get dogpiled on if you dare to invest any effort when that quite clearly isn’t the case based on the overall discussion in the thread. Like... look, I don’t spend a lot of time in the political threads down here because I often have similar worries, it’s not like you HAVE to immerse yourself in these discussions, but to come in and throw nothing out but mockery and accusations and ignore what isn’t favorable to said accusations and then further act like that’s the right thing to do is something that I find myself resenting somewhat, because it’s largely my own efforts I feel are being ignored. I mean, like, yeah, Baal is definitely mostly throwing out anti-socialist invective, but that’s pretty much just him
I'm sorry about that. I'd been pretty frustrated yesterday, so that's probably where the belligerence came from. Below I have made a post mostly devoid of mockery.

His canditature wasn't legal to being with. He made a referendum to ask if he could run for a FOURTH term and he lost, but then simply wiped his ass with the results and asked his friends of the supreme court to allow him anyway.

To say that Morales packed the Supreme Court is disingenous. To say that that is proof of breach of democracy is to say that there is no democracy in Canada or the United States because the members of the highest judiscial branch (the Supreme Court) are picked by Head of State. The Supreme Court ruled that Morales may be stand in the election and so he did.

Then as he was lossing he tried to tamper with the elections and got caught....

The OAS found no evidence for election fraud. None. All they found were irregularities that led them to recommend a run-off election.
Morales offered a second election. The break in vote counts coincides with Mesa's (the second most popular candidate) boys setting fire to polling centers.

Well the military merely suggested him to renounce. (...) People protested in the streets until he resigned. The police and military refused orders to suppress protesters with deadly force...

Your two claims contradict each other. If the military decides to suggest things in political matters then the suggestion is intrinsically a threat. If Morales said no I'm pretty sure he'd get to experience what Allende did at the hands of Pinochet (yet another persuasive military chap). There's a reason why he's in exile in Mexice right now. The army & police have already rounded up multiple members of government. On what authority are they acting if not their own? They rule Bolivia now. They decide who gets to become puppet President.

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/10/evo-morales-concedes-to-new-elections-after-serious-irregularities-found (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/10/evo-morales-concedes-to-new-elections-after-serious-irregularities-found)
https://www.thenation.com/article/bolivia-elections-morales/ (https://www.thenation.com/article/bolivia-elections-morales/)
https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20171129/tribunal-constitucional-avala-reeleccion-indefinida-evo-morales (https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20171129/tribunal-constitucional-avala-reeleccion-indefinida-evo-morales)
https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573386514_263233.html (https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573386514_263233.html)
https://www.notimerica.com/politica/noticia-bolivia-detenidos-25-miembros-tribunales-electorales-irregularidades-comicios-presidenciales-20191111172213.html (https://www.notimerica.com/politica/noticia-bolivia-detenidos-25-miembros-tribunales-electorales-irregularidades-comicios-presidenciales-20191111172213.html)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 13, 2019, 10:16:41 am
Well the military merely suggested him to renounce. (...) People protested in the streets until he resigned. The police and military refused orders to suppress protesters with deadly force...

Your two claims contradict each other. If the military decides to suggest things in political matters then the suggestion is intrinsically a threat. If Morales said no I'm pretty sure he'd get to experience what Allende did at the hands of Pinochet (yet another persuasive military chap). There's a reason why he's in exile in Mexice right now. The army & police have already rounded up multiple members of government. On what authority are they acting if not their own? They rule Bolivia now. They decide who gets to become puppet President.

Sources:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/10/evo-morales-concedes-to-new-elections-after-serious-irregularities-found (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/10/evo-morales-concedes-to-new-elections-after-serious-irregularities-found)
https://www.thenation.com/article/bolivia-elections-morales/ (https://www.thenation.com/article/bolivia-elections-morales/)
https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20171129/tribunal-constitucional-avala-reeleccion-indefinida-evo-morales (https://www.lostiempos.com/actualidad/pais/20171129/tribunal-constitucional-avala-reeleccion-indefinida-evo-morales)
https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573386514_263233.html (https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/11/10/actualidad/1573386514_263233.html)
https://www.notimerica.com/politica/noticia-bolivia-detenidos-25-miembros-tribunales-electorales-irregularidades-comicios-presidenciales-20191111172213.html (https://www.notimerica.com/politica/noticia-bolivia-detenidos-25-miembros-tribunales-electorales-irregularidades-comicios-presidenciales-20191111172213.html)

I didn't know that information about detaining multiple members of government, which does make the whole thing very military coup-y even if they didn't instignate it themselves.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 13, 2019, 11:27:47 am
What? The OEA did found irregularities on the elections, whcih are a sumple euphemism for fraud. If you are willing to disregard that off the bat then there's nothing further we can discuss.

And if there was a coup it was right there when he flexed his arm to get into the election anyway despite the referendum saying no by a flimsy constitution interpretation, read that as the whole country saying NO. So is democracy as long people are willig to tolerate me.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 13, 2019, 11:37:25 am
'no u coup'
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 13, 2019, 12:15:04 pm
"Why would Bolivians support the best leader they've ever had and the only one from the majority ethnic group? IT *clap* MAKES *clap* NO *clap* SENSE *clap*"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 13, 2019, 12:17:30 pm
"Why would Bolivians support the best leader they've ever had and the only one from the majority ethnic group? IT *clap* MAKES *clap* NO *clap* SENSE *clap*"
Well, they did vote down the term limit override. I would argue that instead of pushing for a fourth (?) term, Morales should have just named a political successor and tried to get them elected.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 13, 2019, 12:42:48 pm
'no u coup'
(https://media0.giphy.com/media/Vg0JstydL8HCg/source.gif)

"Why would Bolivians support the best leader they've ever had and the only one from the majority ethnic group? IT *clap* MAKES *clap* NO *clap* SENSE *clap*"
Well, they did vote down the term limit override. I would argue that instead of pushing for a fourth (?) term, Morales should have just named a political successor and tried to get them elected.
This, a thousand times this. It would probably meant the extension of the communist regime but it would also probably made it had a lot cleaner face both internaly and internationally.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 13, 2019, 01:02:13 pm
'no u coup'
*gif snipped for memory on mobile*

dude you're literally saying that the military overthrowing the government is NOT a coup but a dude being allowed to participate IS a coup

what the fuck do you expect? a clever rebuttal?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 13, 2019, 01:14:49 pm
The military didn't overthrew him, not directly at least. All this is the result of his own, very horrible choices and forcing himself on the presidency after openly questioning the whole darn country about it and getting a NOPE for an answer. And after that then the coup per se was consumed by trying to steal the elections ffs.

Then he "run for his life", something he himself described a few year ago as something only the criminals do.

Now, on a personal level I wasn't mad or anything ar your response, in fact I found it genuinely funny, I didn't take it as bad as you seem to think.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 13, 2019, 01:34:54 pm
Not sure self-coup is actually a thing. An own goal or self-own, sure, but the definition you're trying to apply is like the opposite of the second generally non-political definition of coup.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 13, 2019, 01:48:59 pm
The military didn't overthrew him, not directly at least. All this is the result of his own, very horrible choices and forcing himself on the presidency after openly questioning the whole darn country about it and getting a NOPE for an answer. And after that then the coup per se was consumed by trying to steal the elections ffs.

Then he "run for his life", something he himself described a few year ago as something only the criminals do.

Now, on a personal level I wasn't mad or anything ar your response, in fact I found it genuinely funny, I didn't take it as bad as you seem to think.
Well the military merely suggested him to renounce.
There's a reason why he's in exile in Mexico* right now. The army & police have already rounded up multiple members of government.
* fixed typo

um dude military is gathering up military opponents and you fuggen say that only criminals run. i dunno about you but id rather not be tortured and killed and evo more than likely shares that sentiment.

ive already explained why and how he ran for president. it was shady, but not more than the usual in politics. i feel like im repeating myself a lot but if you believe that the military stepping in and letting some random senator christian fanatic declare herself president is more legal, more moral and less shady than a second election then i applaud your modern perspective of democracy as meaningless buzzword
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 13, 2019, 01:59:53 pm
To be fair, he IS coming from the viewpoint of being in Venezuela, so, his experience is colored by that.

As for the Bolivian Senator, they didn't go 'I Declare myself President!' and plant the flag in the ground, they used a pre-existing succession system. Whether that move (or the succession system) was constitutional in Bolivia, I have no idea as I have no knowledge about it. Apparently the entire Bolivian Supreme Court signed off on it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 13, 2019, 02:17:03 pm
Oh, are the decisions of the Supreme Court valid now? I seem to have missed the point when they turned from Evo's cronies to upholders of the law.

The constitution has already been abrogated when (I know I repeat myself a lot but bear with me) the military 'suggested' that Evo resign. The brass has already vowed to restore order in El Alto, the second largest city of Bolivia populated mostly by the Aimara, the people that overwhelmingly supported Morales' government.

EDIT: Some more reading material for those interested:
https://www.france24.com/es/20191112-bolivia-choques-policia-evo-mortales
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 13, 2019, 02:28:42 pm
All I'm saying is that I heard something about it, you clearly know a lot more than I do about what's going on.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 13, 2019, 02:50:40 pm
This is a deleted tweet from the now-interim president of Bolivia (https://web.archive.org/web/20191113000241/https:/twitter.com/JeanineAnez/status/1192048025998446593). But internet archive delivers. And what does it say? Why that natives are not true natives because they have jeans and shoes.

The indigenous people of Bolivia are totally not fucked. Nope. Not one bit.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 13, 2019, 03:01:55 pm
All I'm saying is that I heard something about it, you clearly know a lot more than I do about what's going on.
I don't know much either, but the situation is bad and it's not getting better. This is in no way an improvement.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 13, 2019, 03:03:47 pm
This is a deleted tweet from the now-interim president of Bolivia (https://web.archive.org/web/20191113000241/https:/twitter.com/JeanineAnez/status/1192048025998446593). But internet archive delivers. And what does it say? Why that natives are not true natives because they have jeans and shoes.

The indigenous people of Bolivia are totally not fucked. Nope. Not one bit.

Not loading for me. I guess to her they're only Native Americans if they have face paint, buckskin loincloths and a feather headdress (to use an extremely stereotypical view of Native Americans that's been used here in the states as I don't know the extremely stereotypical portrayal used in Bolivia or South America in general. It's probably not far off the mark though.)?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Iduno on November 13, 2019, 03:07:33 pm
This is a deleted tweet from the now-interim president of Bolivia (https://web.archive.org/web/20191113000241/https:/twitter.com/JeanineAnez/status/1192048025998446593). But internet archive delivers. And what does it say? Why that natives are not true natives because they have jeans and shoes.

The indigenous people of Bolivia are totally not fucked. Nope. Not one bit.

Was she the one who was throwing the nazi salute in response to the election committee building being burned down?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 13, 2019, 03:18:11 pm
I have no idea why it's not loading now. I didn't fuck up the link when posting, because the source where I got it from also is causing the same thing.


EDIT: I think Internet Archive as a whole is down.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 13, 2019, 04:21:02 pm
Uh Oh:

Bolivian Opposition Leaders Recorded planning the removal of Morales (https://www.en24.news/news/2019/11/10/bolivia-audios-leaked-from-opposition-leaders-calling-for-a-coup-against-evo-morales.html)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 13, 2019, 04:36:25 pm
While it’s seeming pretty damn coup right now, that’s not really a source I trust — more or less a totally obscure news site with an anonymous SoundCloud, no way of verifying its claims, and so far as I can tell no verification from anywhere else.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 13, 2019, 04:39:39 pm
While it’s seeming pretty damn coup right now, that’s not really a source I trust — more or less a totally obscure news site with an anonymous SoundCloud, no way of verifying its claims, and so far as I can tell no verification from anywhere else.
Hey now, I just bring the news, I ain't the associated press.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Iduno on November 13, 2019, 05:18:10 pm
https://twitter.com/AllezLesBoulez/status/1194085622924939265 (https://twitter.com/AllezLesBoulez/status/1194085622924939265)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 13, 2019, 08:05:27 pm
https://miguelsouza.wordpress.com/2009/11/27/bolivians-have-chosen-northern-virginia-as-a-second-home/
As one guy in the tweet's comments replies, it seems that Virginia is a large center of Bolivian expats.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: scriver on November 14, 2019, 08:52:32 am
They headed for that unsettled, virgin land
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 14, 2019, 10:49:29 am
Bolivians of Virginia seem to have a pretty consistent opinion on the matter indeed /s

https://twitter.com/CanadianProvin2/status/1194095722590801922 (https://twitter.com/CanadianProvin2/status/1194095722590801922)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Iduno on November 14, 2019, 01:18:33 pm
I love that it's not even a copy-paste job, because every one is worded slightly differently, except for the first sentence.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 14, 2019, 01:51:04 pm
Right-wing's next line will be: "Look at these terrorists arming themselves against the Bolivian military. Bolivia must restore order!"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 16, 2019, 12:40:28 pm
For anyone who thought it isn't a coup and is ~totally~ democratic: Interim president of Bolivia has issued a decree that absolves the military of any and all responsibility for any abuses  they commit. (https://twitter.com/PabloAStefanoni/status/1195736334503202816)

And this new regime is so democratic that protestors are being disappeared.

Socialism bad, huh?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 16, 2019, 05:23:31 pm
If you're going to twist yourself into believing whatever the CIA wants to be true and declare you won't listen to any evidence, you can at least just say so.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Reelya on November 16, 2019, 06:25:11 pm
A good yardstick is to take antagonistic media and see if they can come up with anything. The BBC is pretty scathing in its reporting about Venezuela, so you'd think they wouldn't pull any punches on Bolivia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50431093

There's a section called "how did we get here"

Quote
Mr Morales, a former coca farmer, was first elected in 2005 and took office in 2006, the country's first leader from the indigenous community.

He won plaudits for fighting poverty and improving Bolivia's economy, but drew controversy by defying constitutional limits to run for a fourth term in October's election.

So that was literally the worst thing that this fairly strongly Anti-Maduro journal they could actually come up with to say about Morales. He was in power for 14 years, fought poverty and improved the economy, then had the contested election 1 month ago. They literally couldn't come up with a single thing to mention that he did wrong before that.

Not convinced? I'm looking at Fox News articles now and even they can't come up with anything to mention about the guy prior to the current election
https://www.foxnews.com/world/bolivias-political-crisis-sparks-dangerous-clashes-8-killed
https://www.foxnews.com/world/bolivia-president-evo-morales-mexico-police-supporters
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on November 16, 2019, 06:29:30 pm
The term limit only even exists because of his government, and didn't apply to the term before it was instituted by ruling of Bolivia's Supreme Court.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: LordBaal on November 16, 2019, 07:12:38 pm
Wonder what I'll get accused of being for making this post.
You aren't buying into the CIA, you ARE a member of it. Confess and hand over the cancer gun!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: smjjames on November 16, 2019, 07:22:19 pm
I think MSH was just bullshitting you there ispil, though the bullshitting could be turned way down MSH :P

Wonder what I'll get accused of being for making this post.
You aren't buying into the CIA, you ARE a member of it. Confess and hand over the cancer gun!

Uh-huh, and windmills cause cancer.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/14/what-the-coup-against-evo-morales-means-to-indigenous-people-like-me

Apparently Anez once tweeted "His replacement, Jeanine Añez Chávez, agreed. “I dream of a Bolivia free of satanic indigenous rites,” the opposition senator tweeted in 2013, “the city is not for the Indians who should stay in the highlands or the Chaco!!!” She may very well be a white supremacist for all things concerned. I don't know of anybody in the US who holds that kind of view (who wouldn't otherwise be a white supremacist and would automatically hold those views).
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Reelya on November 16, 2019, 09:16:14 pm
Well the ruling elite have always been the white minority. And I really mean minority. Only 5% identify as "white" (The source for this is the CIA world fact book (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bl.html)), and the violent right-wing protests are concentrated in white areas.
http://www.coha.org/behind-the-racist-coup-in-bolivia/

A very small percentage of wealthy white Spanish-descent people have always ruled the land as a colonial holding, and the majority native Americans were a subject race. This is why it's very different to the USA. Rather than a small number of Indians left and a white majority, Bolivia consists of a dirt-poor mass of Indians and a wealthy and brutal clique of white overlords. They weren't happy when their personal little empire got eroded by those dirty brown people "voting".

"back into the hills with you dirty Indians" is basically an extremely small city-dwelling wealthy class trying to maintain poverty so that their relative power base isn't eroded.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Powder Miner on November 17, 2019, 02:56:47 am
I guess I don't know much about racial politics in Bolivia, but it does look like Bolivia is majority mestizo rather than strictly majority indigenous, which I know is a meaningful difference in a lot of LatAm countries.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 17, 2019, 09:46:39 am
I guess I don't know much about racial politics in Bolivia, but it does look like Bolivia is majority mestizo rather than strictly majority indigenous, which I know is a meaningful difference in a lot of LatAm countries.
While I am speaking from what I have observed here in Brazil, I think it carries over to our neighbours: for the longest time, being black or indigenous was considered rather shameful, so a lot of people identified as "mestizo/mestiço" instead. Sure, there's a lot of miscigenation, but unlike in places like the US what "race" you are is mostly defined by physical features rather than ancestry.

Lately, however, there's been a movement for accepting that there is no shame in not being white, leading to a lot more people identifying as black or indigenous.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 18, 2019, 02:28:38 pm
Warning: what follows is an anecdote, with no citations. But it may be informative.

I know somebody who spent time in Bolivia in the mid-2000s to early/mid 2010s, mainly for nonprofits in the sphere of indigenous rights. (They also worked in a few other South American countries.) This person was incredibly enthusiastic about Evo winning the presidency, but in the early 2010s grew to dislike Evo. While he did do a lot of good, he also helped build up a now powerful & corrupt police and military, and in at least a few instances had opponents (to the left of him, generally cases of local resistance to 'development' projects) beaten and/or killed.

EDIT: Dropping an edit in here for anyone who happens to stumble across it - I was misremembering my conversations with this person; this person did not know of any killings by Evo / his government.

When learning of the recent events in the country, this person was split. Evo had indeed lost the confidence of many of the non-elite, but the ones who were going to benefit the most from his ouster (and indeed we are already beginning to see this) are the elites that he took to task back in the 2000s. His opponent in the election is literally one of the old white elites who were president in the bad old days - indeed, is the very person who Evo beat to become president.

In short...

What replaced it being shit doesn't absolve the previous government of also being shit.

This kind of applies, though perhaps it's more of a case of a possibly good person getting corrupted over time (Evo was president for more than a decade, after all) which then leads to things regressing back to the bad times before.

Edit: I should add that this person loved/loves a lot of what Evo did. He helped fight back (a bit) against the exploitation of the country by outside companies, at least by getting a much better profit share for Bolivia. E.g. what happened with the oil companies early on. But unbridled exploitation was still pretty much the norm, just under terms more favorable for Bolivia.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 20, 2019, 04:49:17 am
Democracy is making it's way to Bolivia one bullet at a time. Five or more protestors have been killed by the military, who opened fire on the crowd surrounding a gasoline plant. (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/20/world/americas/bolivia-deaths-sentaka.html)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Iduno on November 20, 2019, 08:55:43 am
Warning: what follows is an anecdote, with no citations. But it may be informative.

I know somebody who spent time in Bolivia in the mid-2000s to early/mid 2010s, mainly for nonprofits in the sphere of indigenous rights. (They also worked in a few other South American countries.) This person was incredibly enthusiastic about Evo winning the presidency, but in the early 2010s grew to dislike Evo. While he did do a lot of good, he also helped build up a now powerful & corrupt police and military, and in at least a few instances had opponents (to the left of him, generally cases of local resistance to 'development' projects) beaten and/or killed.

When learning of the recent events in the country, this person was split. Evo had indeed lost the confidence of many of the non-elite, but the ones who were going to benefit the most from his ouster (and indeed we are already beginning to see this) are the elites that he took to task back in the 2000s. His opponent in the election is literally one of the old white elites who were president in the bad old days - indeed, is the very person who Evo beat to become president.

In short...

What replaced it being shit doesn't absolve the previous government of also being shit.

This kind of applies, though perhaps it's more of a case of a possibly good person getting corrupted over time (Evo was president for more than a decade, after all) which then leads to things regressing back to the bad times before.

Edit: I should add that this person loved/loves a lot of what Evo did. He helped fight back (a bit) against the exploitation of the country by outside companies, at least by getting a much better profit share for Bolivia. E.g. what happened with the oil companies early on. But unbridled exploitation was still pretty much the norm, just under terms more favorable for Bolivia.

Yeah, it sounds like a left-wing government started to get corrupt, which was used as an excuse for a more corrupt right-wing/neo-nazi group to move in.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 29, 2019, 08:21:18 am
https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/27/operation-condor-2-coup-trump-nicaragua-mexico/ (https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/27/operation-condor-2-coup-trump-nicaragua-mexico/)

After presiding over a far-right coup in Bolivia, the US dubbed Nicaragua a "National security threat" and announced new sanctions, while Trump designated drug cartels in Mexico as "Terrorists" and refused to rule out military intervention.
On November 25, the Trump White House quietly issued a statement characterizing Nicaragua as an "Unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States."
Mexican journalist Alina Duarte explained that, with the Trump administration's designation of cartels as terrorists, "They are creating the idea that Mexico represents a threat to their national security."
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: scriver on November 29, 2019, 08:46:57 am
On the one hand, cartels are definitely a threat to the national security of both Mexico and the USA.

On the other hand, are Trump planning to invade Mexico?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Teneb on November 29, 2019, 09:19:03 am
https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/27/operation-condor-2-coup-trump-nicaragua-mexico/ (https://thegrayzone.com/2019/11/27/operation-condor-2-coup-trump-nicaragua-mexico/)
Called it with the thread title!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 29, 2019, 10:38:50 am
If the US invades Mexico it will begin the open collapse of the american empire. Previous invasions, Iraq and Afghanistan took place so far away that the consequences did not reach american civillians. A destabilised Mexico is right next to two most populous states. If the violence spills over the border (and it will), then the US will have to deal with not only thousands of refugees, but also retaliatory attacks, terrorism as well as internal opposition to the war.

Invading Mexico is so stupid not even Trump would do it, I hope.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Culise on November 29, 2019, 11:04:12 am
On the one hand, cartels are definitely a threat to the national security of both Mexico and the USA.

On the other hand, are Trump planning to invade Mexico?
A quick skim through other news on that website basically makes me think "tankies 2.0", so I highly doubt it.  Let's see, Chinese concentration camps are made up by US interests (https://thegrayzone.com/2018/08/23/un-did-not-report-china-internment-camps-uighur-muslims/), Hong Kong protestors are really violent US-backed stooges based on xenophobia and nativist self-interest (https://thegrayzone.com/2019/08/17/hong-kong-protest-washington-nativism-violence/), and so forth, so I'd put it as a very firm [citation needed]. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on November 29, 2019, 11:13:39 am
It looks like site I linked to prior has jumped the gun. From what I've found, Trump has only talked about designating cartels as terrorist groups.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?destination=%2fworld%2ftrump-plans-to-designate-mexican-cartels-as-terror-groups-stirring-outcry%2f2019%2f11%2f26%2f8ebaeefa-10b7-11ea-bf62-eadd5d11f559_story.html%3f (https://www.washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?destination=%2fworld%2ftrump-plans-to-designate-mexican-cartels-as-terror-groups-stirring-outcry%2f2019%2f11%2f26%2f8ebaeefa-10b7-11ea-bf62-eadd5d11f559_story.html%3f)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/27/trump-mexico-drug-cartels-terrorists (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/27/trump-mexico-drug-cartels-terrorists)
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-drug-cartels-designate-mexican-drug-cartels-terrorist-groups/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-drug-cartels-designate-mexican-drug-cartels-terrorist-groups/)
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/27/politics/donald-trump-mexican-cartels-terrorist-organizations/index.html (https://edition.cnn.com/2019/11/27/politics/donald-trump-mexican-cartels-terrorist-organizations/index.html)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Condor 2 Electric Bogaloo
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 29, 2019, 11:39:13 am
The most I had previously heard about the Mexico thing was that Trump had offered via Twitter to send the us military to deal with the Mexican Cartels. Surprised they were considering any steps near the topic tbh.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: Teneb on November 29, 2019, 05:14:34 pm
I'm uh... just gonna leave this here. Because seriously, no ammount of snark can do this idiocy justice.

Bolsonaro blames Leonardo DiCaprio for paying for NGOs to burn the Amazon (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/brazils-president-blames-leonardo-dicaprio-amid-amazon-fires).

It should go without saying that NGOs are not burning the Amazon, cattle and soy farmers are.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: LordBaal on November 29, 2019, 06:26:34 pm
The way you wrote it I picture a bunch of cows with torches in hand starting fires along with some farmers.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: Doomblade187 on November 29, 2019, 09:10:29 pm
The way you wrote it I picture a bunch of cows with torches in hand starting fires along with some farmers.
Oh my god yes. Thank you Baal.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: Reelya on November 29, 2019, 11:03:42 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/29/brazils-president-claims-dicaprio-paid-for-amazon-fires

...

Quote
One Brazilian created a webpage to attribute blame for the South American country’s various ills to a cast of Hollywood stars.

In it Tom Hanks was blamed for Brazil’s high taxes, Penélope Cruz for unemployment, Daniel Radcliffe for impunity, Johnny Depp for deforestation and Kate Winslet for its education crisis.

Harrison Ford found himself charged with responsibility for Brazil’s Kafkaesque bureaucracy while the government debt was the fault of Adam Sandler.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 30, 2019, 06:30:45 am
Bolsonaro's not wrong. I even have photographic evidence of Leo burning down the amazon.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: Magistrum on November 30, 2019, 09:11:19 am
Oh, that image was edited, he didn't do that.
Spoiler: Here is the real one. (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: smjjames on November 30, 2019, 09:32:08 am
Is that a baby bottle? lol, and dunno what's with the character looking down his pants, obviously looking at a particular male member, but I don't know the context of the cartoon character.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: LordBaal on November 30, 2019, 03:23:44 pm
Well, to be honest, the debt thing does sound like something Adam Sandler would do.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: DiCaprioGate
Post by: Magistrum on November 30, 2019, 03:48:46 pm
Is that a baby bottle? lol, and dunno what's with the character looking down his pants, obviously looking at a particular male member, but I don't know the context of the cartoon character.
This is a JPEG. All montagemanship is if the highest quality. On the item theres an image of Leo, The Sexual Apparatus and Others, a cock baby bottle, and trees.Leo is using  the cock baby bottle to set fire to the trees. The trees are burning.


That is the cover of a a french book called 'The sexual apparatus and others'[Don't know if there was an English print]. Its a book that explains sexuality meant for sixth years (about 13 yo). It was translated to Portuguese back in ~2006 but didn't get much attention then.

Back during the election Bolsonaro criticized the 'School with no homophobia' program, by the ministry of education and human rights, meant to stop homophobia in schools. He called it "kit gay" and said it was supposed to teach children to be homosexuals. He then said that this book was part of the kit gay, along with a 'cock baby bottle', supposedly to help students suck cock.

He was full of shit. Still is, but was back then too.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Teneb on January 17, 2020, 09:41:01 am
BREAKING NEWS: Actual Nazi government doesn't even pretend to be anything else now (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51149224)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Iduno on January 17, 2020, 11:02:47 am
BREAKING NEWS: Actual Nazi government doesn't even pretend to be anything else now (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51149224)

Of course they are. Why else would the US be so supportive of the new regime?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 17, 2020, 05:09:05 pm
BREAKING NEWS: Actual Nazi government doesn't even pretend to be anything else now (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51149224)
He must shop at I'm not Hitler
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: LordBaal on January 18, 2020, 05:50:44 pm
Well the guy did got fired.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on January 18, 2020, 05:56:31 pm
Well the guy did got fired.

I mentioned this to a person who once spent a lot of time in South America (same person I mentioned earlier in this thread), and they half-jokingly responded that Brazil's government is so xenophobic they were fired for copying, not for who exactly was being copied.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Teneb on January 18, 2020, 07:02:13 pm
Yeah, the asshole was fired for the backlash. And now one of the president's sons (who is a politician as well) wants to criminalize communism because, according to the president's cattle, "it's worse than nazism!"

Ugh. I am seriously thinking of trying to find a job abroad now that I'm graduating.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: LordBaal on January 18, 2020, 07:05:50 pm
Well, both are terrible ideas and have led to horrible tragedies. If I agree with something is that both need to be exposed as criminal and to be avoided.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Magistrum on January 18, 2020, 09:06:59 pm
Or, spitballing here, not emulate dictators. That seems reasonable.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Teneb on January 18, 2020, 09:17:34 pm
Let's please remember that the very first thing the Nazis did, even before they started going after jews and other minorities, was to criminalize and round up communists.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on January 18, 2020, 10:03:20 pm
"I'm not emulating Goebbels, that's all an insidious plot by the shadowy international Jewish bankers".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 18, 2020, 10:15:04 pm
Ignorant American coming in: What is Brazil even trying to accomplish? With Nazi Germany, the motivation towards Nazism was pretty clear, if misguided. I'm not familiar with Brazilian history, but I don't think they endured the same things that they did which would spark behavior like this.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on January 18, 2020, 10:33:16 pm
Fascism is rising all over due to the disintegration of the capitalist world order - Brazil's specific case is merely that of an early adopter.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 19, 2020, 06:39:28 am
Fascism is rising all over due to the disintegration of the capitalist world order - Brazil's specific case is merely that of an early adopter.
I argue that fascism is just late-stage capitalism institutionalising the informal compact between corporate and state power
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Magistrum on January 19, 2020, 09:55:04 am
I argue that fascism is just late-stage capitalism institutionalizing the informal compact between corporate and state power
I'm trying to not be convinced at the spot, but it sounds incredibly well descriptive of the recent events. Is there any reading on that?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: LordBaal on January 19, 2020, 12:11:04 pm
The socialism actually ends up in fascism as well, everything stems and is with or within the state, if not then you can "go die fascist pig", which is one of the most amusing ironies I can find, if very sad too.

And nazis rounding up communist doesn't mean communist is good. It was just your regular case of stupid vs stupid. The communist got ample change of revenge too, which... was karmic?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Magistrum on January 19, 2020, 12:16:30 pm
Seems like you are conflating totalitarianism with fascism. There is a good case to be made about socialism inciting totalitarianism but it seems hard to rationalize nationalist zealotry with socialist ideals. Specially if you try to give the "you guys are the same as fascists" routine to the anarchists.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on January 19, 2020, 01:48:22 pm
Fascism is rising all over due to the disintegration of the capitalist world order - Brazil's specific case is merely that of an early adopter.
I argue that fascism is just late-stage capitalism institutionalising the informal compact between corporate and state power
That's true, but incomplete. There are lots of countries which institutionalized that which aren't fascist, though they are typically authoritarian to some degree. Fascism's specific nature of totally denying reality and the qualities listed in Eco's Ur-Fascism is spawned from the damage space where liberalism has been burned away.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Magistrum on January 19, 2020, 02:00:14 pm
Here's a good topic I don't often see discussed, what are the common causes of the recent extreme right-wing push world wide? Is the heat "melting peoples brain" and making them more violent like the Arab Spring deal people used to talk about?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: LordBaal on January 19, 2020, 06:06:38 pm
I would argue it's actually otherwise and it's a huge far left push that's sweeping gullible people everywhere.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 19, 2020, 06:38:14 pm
I'm trying to not be convinced at the spot, but it sounds incredibly well descriptive of the recent events. Is there any reading on that?
I don't remember anything specific off the top of my head, but if you look into corporatism and the economics of fascist Italy or Nazi Germany there'll be lots of reading material there. The short end of the stick there was that a few dominant corporations were given state support to crush their domestic competition, but in turn were subordinated to official state purposes.

I agree with MSH though, that this is part of the definition but not sufficient, because there are systems like China or Singapore where the above describes the economy but they are not fascist. I still ponder what *exactly* fascism is, but I imagine that's part of the problem. Hard to recognise fascism until you've sleepwalked into it
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: sluissa on January 19, 2020, 09:01:08 pm
Here's a good topic I don't often see discussed, what are the common causes of the recent extreme right-wing push world wide? Is the heat "melting peoples brain" and making them more violent like the Arab Spring deal people used to talk about?

I see it as a response to world governments getting more and more tall and top heavy and people on the ground feeling more and more like they have no voice.

Granted, I think this is more of a universal thing. The party in power always ends up in a position where some chunk of people aren't happy. The people who are happy get complacent about the status quo. The whole thing flips on its head. It's a pendulum. Political changes are always a matter of someone promising to make things better and usually failing to fulfill those promises.

I would argue it's actually otherwise and it's a huge far left push that's sweeping gullible people everywhere.

There's definitely been a significant right wing push in some areas, but others have seen left wing pushes as well. For the most part it doesn't really matter, it's just politicians picking whichever phrasing they think is convenient to gather the support of the angry. It's populism whether it's left or right wing and it typically ends up being an extreme of one or the other because compromise and moderation doesn't make anyone happy.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Magistrum on January 20, 2020, 11:53:45 am
I guess it would seem like a right wing push to me since I live in Brazil and that's the latest development here.
I agree with MSH though, that this is part of the definition but not sufficient, because there are systems like China or Singapore where the above describes the economy but they are not fascist. I still ponder what *exactly* fascism is, but I imagine that's part of the problem. Hard to recognise fascism until you've sleepwalked into it
Yeah, there's certainly more at play here.
On China tough? I'm sure it is down the fascism route hard, with term limits abolished, concentration camps and civil unrest repression to boot.
I mean, back when term limits were remove I was convinced, but after the whole Meng Hongwei shitshow it's clear they have no respect for international cooperation or due process.
Let's hope Xi is public disgraced as his antecessor and they roll-back the most egregious violations of individual liberty. Or, you know, revolution.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 20, 2020, 04:36:17 pm
Yeah, there's certainly more at play here.
On China tough? I'm sure it is down the fascism route hard, with term limits abolished, concentration camps and civil unrest repression to boot.
You could find all of those things in a monarchy, a colonial democracy, a liberal dictatorship or a communist dictatorship too though, wouldn't make them fascist. There are multiple flavours of authoritarian regime from which we may taste the various rainbows of pain

I mean, back when term limits were remove I was convinced, but after the whole Meng Hongwei shitshow it's clear they have no respect for international cooperation or due process.
Let's hope Xi is public disgraced as his antecessor and they roll-back the most egregious violations of individual liberty. Or, you know, revolution.
Nah he's not lost heaven's mandate. Besides, revolution would just create the chaos to place a new strongman in power
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on January 21, 2020, 05:38:24 am
I still ponder what *exactly* fascism is, but I imagine that's part of the problem. Hard to recognise fascism until you've sleepwalked into it

Fascism came out of WWI. Consider the type of wartime powers WWI governments used. Commandeer all industry, propaganda, hate the enemy/outsider, forced conformity: "disloyal" people outed as spies/traitors, everyone indoctrinated to comply with expanding state power. Fascism can pretty much be summed up as the "Forever WWI" model of government.

The fascists looked at the "total war" model of WWI and considered it to be the next stage of social development, with a social darwinistic bent. The idea was that if you didn't go full-fascist (total war economy/society) then you'd be over-run by other states that did it. Basically it's an attempt to unify military+political into one system. So where Marx really talked about removing the dichotomy between economic hierarchies and political hierarchies, fascism removes the dichotomy between military power and political power. So in Communism, the economic and political are merged, and you still have the army off to the side, whereas with fascism, the military and political are merged and you still have the economic off to the side (i.e. corporations aren't merged).

This is why fascist leaders are so keen on wearing military uniforms. They then added on the idea of the "race" as the natural unit of society, which was why the Germans were so keen to grab any areas with ethnic Germans in them, so the Nazi version became the idea of total war between racial groups rather than just nation states per-se. The "ultimate" form of fascism would thus be one in which there's no concept of a civilian: everyone would have a unit and designation within the state apparatus and there's always a clear chain of command.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 21, 2020, 06:04:02 am
Fascism came out of WWI. Consider the type of wartime powers WWI governments used. Commandeer all industry, propaganda, hate the enemy/outsider, forced conformity: "disloyal" people outed as spies/traitors, everyone indoctrinated to comply with expanding state power. Fascism can pretty much be summed up as the "Forever WWI" model of government.
Still doesn't distinguish it from a lot of other authoritarian governments

The fascists looked at the "total war" model of WWI and considered it to be the next stage of social development, with a social darwinistic bent. The idea was that if you didn't go full-fascist (total war economy/society) then you'd be over-run by other states that did it. Basically it's an attempt to unify military+political into one system. This is why fascist leaders are so keen on wearing military uniforms. The "ultimate" form of fascism would thus be one in which there's no concept of a civilian: everyone would have a unit and designation within the state apparatus and there's always a clear chain of command.
The more I look into it the more I find fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, Francoist Spain to be different kinds of fascism even from each other, while states like Singapore or Portugal had regimes which looked distinctly fascist, but seem to have escaped the branding largely for marketing purposes. Even today stuff like nation-state darwinism is still in use today, albeit couched in terms of economics & geopolitics instead of biology, but I wouldn't call the USA fascist. I suppose it's like communism, in that the surest sign of a communist government is self-identification; most all else may vary. But I do agree totally on the militiarization of everyone and everything for the never-ending war, but it does brush awfully close to the never-ending revolution

Umberto Ecos Ur-fascism is a pretty comprehensive general definition (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Definitions_of_fascism#Umberto_Eco) I think is useful. I don't think I have anything new to say so my tl;dr is the most reliable sign of fascism is self-identifying, need to use violence to take action, need to take action for action's sake against an enemy who is powerful & weak, disregard for constitutional limits of any kind, contempt for weak e.t.c.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: askovdk on January 21, 2020, 06:15:11 am
Here's a good topic I don't often see discussed, what are the common causes of the recent extreme right-wing push world wide? Is the heat "melting peoples brain" and making them more violent like the Arab Spring deal people used to talk about?

I see it as a response to world governments getting more and more tall and top heavy and people on the ground feeling more and more like they have no voice.
...

Assuming that:
  Left = Share what you have with strangers
  Right = Protect what you have against strangers

Then my feeling is that it’s due to there (IMHO) being way to many people on this globe than needed, so people that can’t sustain a living try to migrate.
‘People on the ground’ are at the same time becoming easier and easier to replace (at least in management’s eyes), and the combination of these makes the ground dwellers (rightfully?) feeling their way of life threaten by strangers.
 -> they move right to protect what little they have, and gives up on the idea of everyone working together to increase prosperity for all. (And yes, the last 10-20 years seem to show that the ultra-rich will fight hard to get another billion instead of ‘increasing prosperity for all’  >:()


Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: LordBaal on January 21, 2020, 08:22:03 am

Assuming that:
  Left = Share what other people have (no matter if they want or not) with strangers
  Right = Protect what you have against strangers
That's more accurate on how it's done in real life.

The main difference in facism and communism is that in the first you include the armed forces and leave the industry outside (but really don't), in the second in theory you don't include the armed forces but in practice you will always do. The communism has always been imposed  by arms or be held by them and you either integrate them deep into the party or have your ass kicked out by them.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on January 21, 2020, 09:05:22 am

Assuming that:
  Left = Share what other people have (no matter if they want or not) with strangers
  Right = Protect what you have against strangers
That's more accurate on how it's done in real life.

The main difference in facism and communism is that in the first you include the armed forces and leave the industry outside (but really don't), in the second in theory you don't include the armed forces but in practice you will always do. The communism has always been imposed  by arms or be held by them and you either integrate them deep into the party or have your ass kicked out by them.
"Why are those filthy plebs taking our factories away? Why don't they make their own? Maybe they'll want to steal our slaves next? I'm literally shaking rn"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 21, 2020, 05:44:47 pm
"Why are those filthy plebs taking our factories away? Why don't they make their own? Maybe they'll want to steal our slaves next? I'm literally shaking rn"
There's a godly quote from a Victorian industrialist complaining in the papers that the new anti-child labour laws were going to empty his factories of cheap workers. The thought that these children would be going to school and becoming the engineers making him vastly wealthier anyways never crosses his mind
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 21, 2020, 08:45:56 pm
That's the thing about greed, it'd rather take a dime right now right than 1,000 dollars tomorrow. Myopia is the telltale trait of an evil mindset.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: ChristianWeiseth on February 06, 2020, 05:28:06 am
I love Colombia, awesome country, Fascism is correct for Latin America just as Socialism can be correct for Europe and USA or most likely a mix of the two, I dont really care who wins between socialists/fascists as long as the Goldman Sachs/Soros NGO's/WTO and all the capitalist banks fail.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on February 06, 2020, 05:49:31 am
I wish this had a /s.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Magistrum on February 06, 2020, 07:54:55 am
So, here is the thing, is he genuinely misguided or ignorant about it, and then we should explain it to him; or is he a mid-grade troll pulling a fast one on us?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on February 06, 2020, 09:01:40 am
I have family in Colombia, they are embracing themselves for a Venezuelan Refugee wave. Also Maduro is supporting terrorist attacks in the north in an attempt to try and force a military intervention from Colombia into Venezuela as a distraction from the economic collapse.
This is the only post I managed to dig up regarding Latin America by ChristianWeiseth. While it is comical, especially in hindsight, I do think that in general the dude is simply misinformed, potentially because of the bias he has towards Colombia, a country that certainly picked up a thing or two from fascists over the years. All in all, I'm willing to assume that he (or she) is simply in the dark about Latin America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on February 16, 2020, 08:35:52 am
Sounds just like an ill-informed patsy. The idea that Colombia is some victim and is besieged on all sides by other nations is paranoia they use to justify that absolutely insane level of military build-up in Colombia.

Click on the 25 year history here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/military-expenditure

Colombia has had a near continuous and never ending escalation of military spending for the last 25 years, with recessions only being temporary hiccups in the military build-up.

Also note that Venezuela has been slashing their own military spending.
https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/military-expenditure

After Colombia bombed sites in Ecuador in 2008, and then claimed Ecuador was in league with terrorists, Venezuela did direct more spending towards the military, but even then, they only went from spending 10% as much as Colombia to spending 20% as much as Colombia, and that only lasted a few years before they slashed spending again.

Even on a GDP-basis, Venezuela currently spends only 0.5% of GDP on the military, whereas Colombia spends 3% of GDP on the military:
https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html
https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/military-expenditure-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html

So, even given that Venezuela's GDP has fallen, they don't have a strong emphasis on maintaining military spending. It's not a main priority of their government, so this notion that Venezuela is some military threat to their neighbors is fanciful. As Venezuela's GDP has fallen, they've actually focused spending away from the military, not towards it. This is the opposite of what militarily aggressive regimes do when under pressure.

The idea that Colombia is beset on all sides by military threats is in fact internal fascist propaganda to justify their own totally out of control military build-up and threatening to attack their neighbors. This idea that Venezuela is backing terrorists in Colombia to try and goad Colombia to invade them as a "distraction" is in fact an attempt to justify Colombia stomping on their neighbors, as in the 2008 Ecuador bombing, as some sort of act of self-defense. If Venezuela was planning a war as a distraction they wouldn't be seriously slashing their own military spending at the same time. So the only logical conclusion is that the right-wing in Colombia wants the war but they want to justify it by blaming Venezuela for Colombia's own rebels.

Note, that the Venezuelans supported the FARC peace process, i.e. the ending of Colombia's civil war, while Uribe was dead opposed to the peace process. i.e. the political far-right in Colombia are pretty much the only people who wanted the civil war to keep on keeping on. It's because they've used the civil war to justify 25+ years of continuous military build up, and they use it as an excuse to threaten their neighboring nations as a "self defense" act. Saying Uribe was a fascist dictator isn't any stretch. His family had their own personal paramilitary death squads. His brother and cousin are in prison for that.

EDIT: as for paranoia, here's Uribe saying it was a British plot when his death-squad links were being uncovered:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/25/colombia-alvaro-uribe-mi6-death-squads-charges
So it's not just Venezuela, Ecuador. The British commies are coming for Colombia too.

Quote
Colombia’s powerful former president Álvaro Uribe has announced that he will resign from his senate seat in order to focus on battling a widening supreme court investigation.

(Link: Colombian army killed thousands more civilians than reported, study claims)

Uribe, a hardliner who led a brutal campaign against leftist rebels from 2002 to 2010, has long dodged accusations of involvement in paramilitary massacres that occurred during and before his tenure.

He could, however, come unstuck in the face of new charges of bribing and intimidating witnesses related to those death squad cases.

On Wednesday, Uribe accused the British intelligence agency MI6 of colluding with his former defence minister and eventual successor as president, Juan Manuel Santos, to supply recordings that implicate him in crimes.

“There are repeated allegations that the recordings were made by the British agency MI6, friends of Juan Manuel Santos,” he tweeted. “Foreign authorities in a ruse against me.”

Quote
“Foreign authorities in a ruse against me.”

;)

EDIT2: Actually didn't know this:

Quote
A separate scandal led to the abolition of the country’s domestic intelligence agency in 2011 after it was revealed that Uribe had used it to spy on opposition members and journalists. Several witnesses in other cases have turned up dead.
The department of security in Colombia had some very prominent scandals relating to murdering journalists / doing death threats against other journalists. Turns out they didn't survive the scandals. This is equivalent to something happening like the FBI having to be abolished because it was being used as the armed wing of the Trump Organization to discredit or assassinate opponents.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 07, 2020, 12:13:07 pm
The Washington Post has an interesting article up (well, a second article that references a first one that's also interesting) regarding the situation in Bolivia:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/as-the-us-backed-government-in-bolivia-unleashes-what-many-see-as-political-persecutions-the-trump-administration-remains-silent/2020/03/06/542b828c-5751-11ea-8efd-0f904bdd8057_story.html

Perhaps the most surprising part is that the Post seems to be changing its tack regarding Morales's ouster, likely due to the behavior of the new government. The interesting part is that MIT (the university) did some statistical analysis of the election results and argues that there isn't significant evidence of the 'election irregularities' that OAS raised concerns about. I.e. the concerns that led to the ouster in the first place.

Based on what I've learned elsewhere I'd personally be a bit surprised that there weren't any irregularities under Morales... but on the other hand, given the history of OAS, the current U.S. Administration, and everything that's happened since, this really does seem more and more like an old-fashioned "U.S. installs a terrible right-wing regime" sort of thing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on March 07, 2020, 06:02:54 pm
WaPo and NYT are both paywalled these days, putting an excerpt of the key bits is helpful, especially since each of us maybe gets 1 free article a month on each of those, so if we all look at that, we've all used our quota on that one article.

Maybe you can link some of the anti-Morales stuff.

One perspective is that if the opposition were such hardline fascists to start with, people in Evo's political camp probably knew all about it. They'd know what those other leaders say locally and in the media. So Evo & Co pulled out all the stops to prevent full-on Nazis from taking power, then that context gets omitted and it gets presented as being "anti-democratic" by the Latin American right-wing media, which is often very comparable to Fox News, but then gets sanitized because it gets picked up by mainstream media in the USA including New York Times, so people in the USA don't actually realize the source newspapers / TV stations down south are way further right than Fox News.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: ChairmanPoo on March 07, 2020, 07:20:41 pm
Tangentially related: I do not know what I watched that caused this, but for some reason the youtube algorythm has been suggesting a lot of pro-Bolsonaro fascist propaganda as of late.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on March 07, 2020, 10:03:35 pm
WaPo and NYT are both paywalled these days, putting an excerpt of the key bits is helpful, especially since each of us maybe gets 1 free article a month on each of those, so if we all look at that, we've all used our quota on that one article.

Maybe you can link some of the anti-Morales stuff.

Ah, sorry. A few excerpts (which is hopefully not a verboten practice...)

Spoiler: article bits (click to show/hide)

The person who I've mentioned a few times here says that the "savages" reference is pretty well-worn code phrasing for the country, so not subtle at all.

The article also opens with police going to a person running a left-wing publication, saying they'd like to talk to him about a 'cybercrime'. They take him to the station, then inform him that he is the cybercrimer and slap him into house arrest. Fun times.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on March 07, 2020, 10:37:02 pm
A note that OAS is often cited as being politically biased. The OAS was set up by the Americans during the cold war as an anti-communist front group, and is headquartered in Washington DC. In the inagural meeting, the members states took an anti-communist pledge, so OAS has been fully involved in suppressing dissidents and isolating left-wing regimes since the start.

So it's a tool of the US administration, and strongly aligned with the south American right wing and not really a neutral representative body that developed organically to represent all the nations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organization_of_American_States
Here's a note, that right before they inaugurated the thing in May 1948 in Bogota, Colombia, the Liberal Party candidate for president of Colombia was assassinated, leading to a period of intense  government repression known as "La Violenca", to the point that in the 1950 election there were literally zero Liberal Party candidates for president or the congress. I don't think the OAS had a single word to say about that. Murdering all the opposition leaders? Purely internal matter, nothing to see here.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: scriver on August 05, 2020, 04:15:51 pm
Colombia's Supreme Court has detained Uribe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/04/colombia-alvaro-uribe-supreme-court-house-arrest)

It's a bit of a shocker
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: LordBaal on August 05, 2020, 04:34:50 pm
I've read he will be home detained because the pandemic and all that. It's interesting see how this will resolve.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on August 05, 2020, 04:37:38 pm
Colombia's Supreme Court has detained Uribe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/04/colombia-alvaro-uribe-supreme-court-house-arrest)

It's a bit of a shocker

I've posted stuff before in her about what a bad lot Uribe and his family appear to be, but I'm still surprised that the arm of the law can touch him. There's actually a documentary about his ties to the Medelin cartel. His start was when a guy in charge of aviation licensing got assassinated by the cartel, then Uribe took over that post. Didn't get assassinated, which means he played along with the game.

googled up an article at random
https://colombiareports.com/how-colombias-former-president-helped-kick-start-the-medellin-cartel/

This is the point where you'd normally quote some smoking guns from the article, but it's smoke and (actual) guns all the way down, plus you could probably come up with 50 other articles explaining different aspects of the whole story that this article missed.

Note that of the current case:

Quote
The trial was hampered by the assassination of a witness, attempts to spy on the magistrate investigating Uribe and attempts by prominent allies to pressure the court into giving the far-right politician a pass.

I mean, if you put all the stories together there are about 40 years of people just turning up dead if they get in the way of Uribe or his associates.

His political opponent was captured by FARC in 2002 when he ran for president. A few years later she was released and Uribe claimed credit, but video leaked of a peaceful handover rather than the daring commando raid Uribe's people had claimed. At which point they changed the story to the fact that they had infiltrators in FARC who could give the order to release her, thus it was still their victory. Well, how long were the infiltrators in there? More than a few years? FARC doesn't just give people the right to issue commands overnight. And if they can give the order to release a captive, were they also in a position to order the capture of a captive? So I'm pretty sure he actually used bribed FARC officers to take his opponent out of the 2002 election. He was a self-confessed FARC puppet master a few years later after all.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 19, 2020, 03:48:00 am
VIVA BOLIVIA, VIVA LA MAS (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/bolivia-election-evo-arce-mesa-camacho/2020/10/18/205b6b5c-0f11-11eb-8a35-237ef1eb2ef7_story.html)

CIA? DEFUNDED

CHRISTOFASH? APOSTATIZED

ELON MUSK? $TSLA TO ZERO

COUP SUPPORTERS? BTFO



Ahem. I am somewhat pleased at the news in Bolivia today.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: voliol on October 19, 2020, 04:37:08 am
That is terrific news.

The tribunal waiting to release the results seems awfully fishy though, and the military demonstration to "keep peace" doesn't make it any better; who are the troublemakers Áñez is threatening if not the people who will protest against obviously fabricated results. At the same time, she congratulated Arce, which is strange. Is it all to keep up the appearances of her fraud "democracy"? I would not bet against it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 19, 2020, 04:42:49 am
It could all go wrong for sure, but conceding the election and saying it was fair isn't exactly a normal thing to do if you want to steal the election.

MAS' popularity has proven to be an effective shield against the fash, now just as it did during the coup - kind of hard to piss off that many people at once and get away with it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: voliol on October 19, 2020, 05:13:02 am
Yeah, they obviously fudged up, even Camacho winning at this point would look outright silly, which would make CIA backing harder to come by. I just don't like negative surprises, I suppose.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 19, 2020, 10:51:20 am
It could all go wrong for sure, but conceding the election and saying it was fair isn't exactly a normal thing to do if you want to steal the election.

The statement is from the 'interim' president and not one of the candidates, though (since she dropped out after seeing her polling numbers). Means that she can act the graceful loser while letting the opposition candidate still try to start something. There's still enough anti-indigenous racism mixed up with the anti-socialists for things to get ugly, unfortunately. Hopefully I'm just worrying too much.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: feelotraveller on October 19, 2020, 10:48:32 pm
Nice result in, and for, Bolivia.  I particularly liked the classy statement from the new President-elect (cited from above link):
Quote
“We think that our comrade Evo has every right, if he so wishes, to return to the country and defend himself,” Arce said.
Let's see what happens.  8)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 19, 2020, 11:10:59 pm
I was just reading that trade unions supported the ouster of Evo Morales. You might think that trade unions would support a progressive candidate, but just think of the role that trade unions play - they're a middle-man between management and workers. Ultimately, the organizations that persist are ones that act in ways that persist their organization, not the ones that are the most effective at obtaining their 'stated' goals. Consider that you can make more money from treating the symptoms of a disease that from curing it. So, trade unions persist where there's ongoing conflict or tension between workers and management, and if those problems get solved then the union isn't needed any more. Hence, quite a few unions are anti-progressive: a lot of them have pacts or understandings with the management class. They have a role to play in a well regulated machine.

Evo is a good guy. You can tell that because of how he left office. There were unsubstantiated rumors of electoral irregularities following his election victory. But, just about everywhere has those and they're an easy claim for the opposition to make. Then there were three weeks of protests, and they demanded Evo resign. The critical point is: he did resign, even though he probably had no reason to. He didn't dig his heels in or use law enforcement to crack down on the protests or rally his supporters. Basically, he stood down to avoid violence and chaos from the other guys.

Quote
On 4 December 2019, the OAS released its final report related to 20 October election, detailing what they called "deliberate" and "malicious" tactics to rig that election in favor of President Evo Morales.[21][22] Two subsequent independent non-peer-reviewed analyses of election data from different sources disagreed with the statistical analysis of election data presented by the OAS, with CEPR accusing OAS of doing a "basic coding error" resulting in what appeared to be inexplicable changes in trend.[23] OAS's counter-response stated that doing statistical exercises on what they described as falsified data does not prove the data is not false, and said that the counter-analyses do not address or discount other alleged evidence of fraud in the report.

The OAS is basically a tool of Washington. They had election data, and used bogus math to make it look like the data was rigged. However, when other academics pointed out their glaring math flaws and that there was no smoking gun, they moved the goalposts and said that of course there was no "smoking gun" since the data itself was false to start with. So, the data was supposed to be fake because of telltale signs, but when those telltale signs were debunked, they moved to the idea that since the data was fake, then they could rig things without telltale signs, so not having any signs of false data is in fact now a trait of false data. See the logic here?

So they rigged a report and then branded that with their 'authority', then when their own rigging was exposed, they resorted to sheer rumor mongering without any evidential basis. As for the 'other alleged evidence' - I'm guessing that this was rumors from right-wing groups in the nation. Basically a form of the Gish Gallop (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop)- present a million unconnected bits of 'evidence' then when any one of them is debunked you merely state that they didn't debunk all the bits of evidence. This works because disproving rumors takes more effort than just stating and accepting the rumors without any critical analysis.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Cheesy Honkers on October 20, 2020, 10:17:56 am
One thing you're wrong about: Evo didn't resign willingly. It was only after the military suggested that unless he does so the country would fall to violence. So, it was more like a coup than a resignation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50369591 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-50369591)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 10:51:11 am
Yeah, it was a (semi-, initially) bloodless coup, but it was still a coup.

Perhaps ironically, Evo's the one who substantially built up the country's military.

(Regardless, I'm hopeful about the election outcome. Main opposition candidate did concede too.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 20, 2020, 04:32:01 pm
One thing you're wrong about: Evo didn't resign willingly. It was only after the military suggested that unless he does so the country would fall to violence. So, it was more like a coup than a resignation.

What I really mean is that if he was the kind of thug some were making him out to be then he wouldn't have stepped down, he'd have converted his supporters into makeshift meatshields to prop himself up in office and/or have already converted the military into his personal army. So yeah, he stood down to avoid violence in the end. A lot of leaders wouldn't have done that. There are plenty of populists who, faced with that situation, would have called their supporters to rally at the capital building and built a wall of humans around the place, so that if the military wanted to take over, they'd have to shoot their way though men women and children, effectively calling their bluff.

I wasn't really debating the motives of the other side or whether it was a coup or legitimate resignation, but the fact that he peacefully stood aside to avoid that clash.

Part of the point here is that the means by which he left power is more than a little at odds with the narrative they were trying to push. So, on one hand, the story is that he's a heavy handed defacto dictator who rigs the polls, so he's like Saddam Hussein, yet apparently he has no control whatsoever over the military's response to said manipulation. The story doesn't add up. So there are allegations, then a few weeks of protests against the allegations, then the military demands the president stand down. That's clearly not how things go in a "dictatorship".

It's also comical how some on the right started labeling democracies as a dictatorship based on the fact that the supporters of the guy they don't like has majority support, and that's fundamentally unfair. If it's someone like Evo or Chavez, who is popular, but not with the "right" people then the true ruling elite is being oppressed at the ballot box by the unfair dictatorial means of the mass population turning up to vote.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 04:47:54 pm
He definitely has had his fair share of opponents/obstacles killed (I know somebody well who has had several colleagues killed by him when he was president), though you are right that here he didn't go down that path.

He had some dictator-like elements going on, though he didn't have an iron grip on the country or anything like that. And he was better than the folks before him, for sure.

EDIT: Dropping an edit in here for anyone who happens to stumble across it - this is all incorrect; I was misremembering my conversations with the mentioned person.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 20, 2020, 04:51:07 pm
Do you have sources for those killings. I'm trying to find articles with those allegations in them, found nothing yet. Checked Wikipedia, BBC and New York Times, none of which are particularly friendly to Chavista types
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evo_Morales
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-12166905

The only relevant thing I can find is this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/apr/17/bolivia-assassination-plot-evo-morales

Quote
Police in Bolivia have shot dead three men, including one identified by local officials as an Irish national, over an alleged plot to assassinate the country's president, Evo Morales.

The three were shot during a fierce gun battle after police uncovered an apparent plot which involved suspects believed to come from countries including Hungary and Croatia, as well as Ireland, government officials said yesterday.

Police attempted to arrest a group of men in the centre of Santa Cruz, an eastern Bolivian city and hub of anti-Morales sentiment, but they fled to a hotel where the shootout took place around 4am (9am BST), witnesses and police said.

The alleged assassins detonated a grenade inside the hotel, blowing out its windows during the gunfight, according to police.

Unless I'm missing something, it doesn't look like any reputable publication is publishing those allegations. I can't even find a hint of the allegations.

Even FOX News didn't mention a whiff of that when they covered his resignation:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/bolivia-president-evo-morales-resigns-election-fraud-allegations

Quote
Morales became the first president from Bolivia’s indigenous population in 2006 and presided over a commodities-fed economic boom in South America’s poorest country. The former leader of a coca growers union, he paved roads, sent Bolivia’s first satellite into space and curbed inflation.

Basically that's FOX's entire bio on his presidency. Infrastructure and cutting inflation. No mention of political assassinations or even hinting at any allegations. If there are stories about that, they're pretty deep down some rabbit hole or other. So yeah, I'm open to the accusations that I'm glossing over less salubrious aspects of his regime here, but i literally can't find corroboration that such claims exist.

I just googled "killed by evo morales" in quotes to limit the search, and got literally one google result, some random no-name website, and the story was about some 20 year old kid killed in street clashes between pro and anti government groups, and opposition groups claiming it was like Evo had killed him. So, no the term "killed by evo morales" brings up literally zero google hits except for that one. So, it's not like I haven't checked for this stuff.

If there are people who have had colleagues murdered and they accuse Evo Morales as being behind the murders, well there don't seem to be any sources whatsoever which back up the idea that this is a thing. Perhaps the same security forces which ousted Evo Morales were behind some killings of these people, and the people then blame Evo Morales as being "behind" the killings. But there's no evidence that Evo had his own personal hit squad. Quite the opposite since he clearly can't control the military.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 20, 2020, 05:06:40 pm
Note that Bolivia doesn´t even have capital punishment currently. I think Dostoevsky is mixing Evo Morales up with someone else.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 20, 2020, 05:09:19 pm
Ah, that's possible. I did a pretty exhaustive search after all to try and find accusations that he killed anyone, couldn't find even a whiff of that. Not even on fringe far right sites. However, it's possible some people working for an opposition group were killed and they pinned it on Evo Morale's government as rumor mongering.

But if any even moderately well known opposition leaders were being murdered then there would be conspiracies and/or rumors implicating Morales in the killings, so from the lack of any reporting, we can deduce that there aren't any such killings - consider the conspiracy theories about the Clintons and Vince Foster's suicide. So whoever has been murdered must be of sufficiently low public profile that their death isn't generating any press. This fact makes if far less credible that Morales is involved in any way. If they're not actually important people to the opposition movement, why would Morales be personally targeting them? And if they were important people, why is nobody in the media kicking up a stink about it or using it to implicate Morales?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 05:32:12 pm
No, it's Evo.

I know somebody who worked with indigenous groups in Bolivia; sometimes groups opposed local industrial development or resource exploitation, and out of that group a subset would get beaten or killed by government thugs.

Edit to elaborate a bit: this person had been working in Bolivia before Evo as well, and was initially really amazed and hopeful when he was elected, but over the years grew increasingly disillusioned. Not that he was the worst Bolivia had seen, but that a lot of hope ended up dying.

As to why it's not getting attention, these are small indigenous groups in a 'backwater' nation-- generally not much attention is getting paid to them at all, and in some cases it's communities that some Americans would think of as 'savages'. Not like the wealthy white urban (often racist) folks that make up a good portion of the opposition groups in Bolivia.

Also to add: these deaths weren't at all related to the election -- sorry if I wasn't clear on that. This person stopped their work in Bolivia a few years ago for unrelated reasons. And sorry for not having citeable sources; I understand if you choose not to believe - I trust this person a lot and they still opposed the coup against Evo, for what it's worth.

EDIT: Dropping an edit in here for anyone who happens to stumble across it - this is all incorrect; I was misremembering my conversations with the mentioned person.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on October 20, 2020, 05:43:48 pm
That's a common story in South American nations to be sure, but I'm not sure why you blame Evo for it. The resource extraction transnationals are outright genocidal towards indigenous people the world over. Stopping that isn't going to be easy for anybody, particularly given how deeply ingrained the white Christian fascist groups were in the Bolivian government until Evo.

Don't get me wrong, I think Evo should have purged the fuck out of those groups, but as we saw not getting couped in countries that are at the top of the CIA's murder list is really difficult. He obviously never had full control of the government, or else he'd still be in power. Blaming him for the people who were around long before him and desperately wanted to put a knife in his back doesn't really make sense.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 05:47:49 pm
Evo's not the sole person to blame, for sure, but some of these were high-enough profile infrastructure projects for him to be personally involved.

(I should also add this isn't like hundreds of people or anything-- this person knew 3 or 4 people killed, roughly half a dozen more badly injured.)

Further edit, because I'm writing these too quick: and yes, I don't want to make the perfect the enemy of the good. Just trying to say he's not a saint, is all.

EDIT: Dropping an edit in here for anyone who happens to stumble across it - this is all incorrect; I was misremembering my conversations with the mentioned person.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 20, 2020, 06:29:05 pm
No offense but this is very anecdottal. By that rule of thumb I could claim, say, that Tom Hanks eats babies.

Not that I think that Evo's a saint but I'll need something hardier to take at face value a claim about anti-native death squads. Specially since the man's support comes mostly from rural communities
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 20, 2020, 09:01:46 pm
The only thing I could find after google bolivia infrastructure killings was an incident in 2011, where police suppressed a protest and anecdotally 4 deaths occured, but the suppression was condemned by Morales basically right away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Bolivian_indigenous_rights_protests

https://web.archive.org/web/20111023185812/https://edition.cnn.com/2011/09/29/world/americas/bolivia-protests/

However, part of the prelude to the conflict was this:

Quote
Following more than a week of protests, the marchers staged a larger demonstration in which they sought to circumvent a police crackdown by forcefully holding Foreign Minister David Choquehuanca to march with them.[9] A group of female marchers grabbed Choquehuanca and insisted that he lead them through the police cordon that separated them from pro-government marchers so they could continue their journey to La Paz.

So, you had a police cordon separating pro and anti government rallies, and the anti government rally people then kidnapped a government official and tried to use him to force their way through the cordon because they were being unfairly hindered in their movements by the police cordon. What the police were doing was merely separating pro and anti government groups to avoid conflict, and the anti-government people here clearly goading things to come to a violent head so they could get the trigger they wanted to topple people. Give it a few more weeks of similar provocations, and the police snapped and actively suppressed the demonstrators, and you had the event they could then blame on Evo Morales.

Basically after the event in question all police were made to stand down in face of the protests, while the minister in charge of that was made to resign.

Quote
As the protesters entered the city, people in La Paz cheered them by waving Bolivian flags and white handkerchiefs. As a gesture of goodwill both police and riot control vehicles were withdrawn from their positions outside the presidential palace, while the information minister offered an official welcome to the protesters.

Again, this isn't how wannabe dictators conduct matters.

BTW for comparison there have been 19 deaths related to BLM protest crackdowns in the USA, and I don't see too many people who would see the 2011 protest deaths as being Evo Morale's fault making much of that.

I'm fairly certain this is the event you were talking about, but the reality is extremely far from the insinuation that Evo Morales routinely orders the murders of political opponents.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 09:54:49 pm
No offense but this is very anecdottal. By that rule of thumb I could claim, say, that Tom Hanks eats babies.

Not that I think that Evo's a saint but I'll need something hardier to take at face value a claim about anti-native death squads. Specially since the man's support comes mostly from rural communities

As I said before, understandable if you choose not to believe since it is ultimately one anonymous person giving hearsay on the internet. And again, it's not about widespread killings (and definitely not about racist death squads; they weren't killed for being indigenous but were situations where the pockets of resistance just so happened to be small indigenous groups), but a few cases this person was personally familiar with. Can't say for sure whether Evo was involved, but those affected were left with that impression.

Left enough of an impression on me to speak up here, at any rate.

[The 2011 incident]

This person certainly had opinions on that incident, but this wasn't the particular event in question.

EDIT: Dropping an edit in here for anyone who happens to stumble across it - this is all incorrect; I was misremembering my conversations with the mentioned person.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 20, 2020, 10:07:16 pm
Yeah it's fair enough there' the sentiment that the government is to blame, however it's the matter that you presented it quite as if Evo was sitting in a dark room ordering mob-style hits on opposition politicians, which isn't supported. People dying because of the police at demonstrations is bad, but a very different kettle of fish to suggesting someone is doing targeted assassinations:

He definitely has had his fair share of opponents/obstacles killed (I know somebody well who has had several colleagues killed by him when he was president), though you are right that here he didn't go down that path.

"had his fair share of opponents/obstacles killed" clearly implies assassinations. Stating that he had his "fair share" of opponents taken out by killing them is pretty prejudicial, given the actual information.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 10:10:48 pm
"had his fair share of opponents/obstacles killed" clearly implies assassinations.

Yeah, poor choice of words there from me. I can't claim calling cards were left or anything. (My understanding is that it was mob-style hits actually, though per MSH's point I can't say he ordered it from a dark room considered how much it happens in much of the world from mid-level authorities.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 20, 2020, 10:12:59 pm
If there were private companies involved in an infrastructure project it's actually far more likely that someone related to a company was involved to be honest*.

It's extremely unrealistic that Evo was ordering hits on indigenous protest movements to take them out. That's not the sort of thing that happens in the real world, even in the worst dictatorship that's not how the comms works.

After all, you do need to take motives into account. What would Evo's motive be to order such a hit? Nothing would make any sense. As a politician, such an incident would only be a liability, as it proved to be when because of the 2011 police crackdown, Evo cancelled the entire project. You don't sit in a room ordering hits on protestors if your response to protest deaths is going to be to instantly cave into their demands, sack your police minister, then order the police to stand down. So, Evo's motivations to do such a thing are 180 degrees at odds with how he reacted to the aftermath:

"yes, police minister, ruthlessly kill the protestors, then I can give in to their demands and sack you and reprimand the police. all part of the plan".
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 20, 2020, 10:29:35 pm
I'll reach out to this person tomorrow and try to get more info.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 21, 2020, 12:17:32 pm
Okay, so I had the chance to have a chat with them, and looks like an apology is in order - my memory was off and I was conflating several countries together.

For Bolivia (and Evo) in particular, there was only one incident of note: a lowlands indigenous leader was a rising star and seen as a potential competitor/threat to Evo and MAS, even though he didn't oppose them. He was badly beaten/tortured (including several limbs broken) by the party and then left the limelight. Several others who had some level of popularity, both inside and outside MAS, were intimidated (but not beaten) into subservience.

(As to the main offenders in violence against indigenous colleagues since 2000, they were in Peru and Honduras- countries with rather different political situations.)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Teneb on October 21, 2020, 01:21:44 pm
Just wanted to congratulate the thread into not devolving into a flame war in my absence. Carry on.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Fashes gona fash
Post by: Reelya on October 21, 2020, 05:30:20 pm
Okay, so I had the chance to have a chat with them, and looks like an apology is in order - my memory was off and I was conflating several countries together.

For Bolivia (and Evo) in particular, there was only one incident of note: a lowlands indigenous leader was a rising star and seen as a potential competitor/threat to Evo and MAS, even though he didn't oppose them. He was badly beaten/tortured (including several limbs broken) by the party and then left the limelight. Several others who had some level of popularity, both inside and outside MAS, were intimidated (but not beaten) into subservience.

(As to the main offenders in violence against indigenous colleagues since 2000, they were in Peru and Honduras- countries with rather different political situations.)

Oh yeah, Honduras is pretty terrible for political violence. I don't know much about what's gone on in Peru however.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Need a Catchy Title
Post by: A Thing on October 21, 2020, 07:05:27 pm
Y´know I would suggest some clever pun with MAS and más, like más MAS, but I´m not familiar enough with Spanish to not embarrass myself. I´unno, something catchy with MAS.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Need a Catchy Title
Post by: bloop_bleep on October 21, 2020, 07:42:18 pm
Más de MAS masivo!
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Need a Catchy Title
Post by: voliol on October 22, 2020, 03:52:20 am
The victory seems official (edit: and "masivo") now. What a joyous day!
https://www.ibtimes.com/bolivia-polls-transparent-arce-victory-legitimate-oas-3066678
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Need a Catchy Title
Post by: Dostoevsky on October 22, 2020, 11:02:04 am
Nice to see OAS concede on this one. Regardless of my criticisms of Evo, this is a heck of a lot better than the pre-Evo old guard seizing back control of the country.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Dostoevsky on November 09, 2020, 11:28:00 pm
Guess I get to the person to drop a note in here (https://apnews.com/article/argentina-bolivia-latin-america-evo-morales-4f5ff3b663086bacd71c7f3672c3d014) that a) the arrest warrant against Evo was dropped a little while back, and b) he returned to Bolivia earlier today.

He technically does still face charges, but for now at least I doubt they'll be acted on.

I had also heard a rumor or two that interim government people could get charged for their various malfeasances, but haven't been able to find hard evidence of that.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: feelotraveller on May 18, 2021, 01:03:55 am
Arise Chileans and Other americans!

Interesting results in the election for the Chilean Constitutional Convention - the body that is tasked with rewriting the Chilean constitution.

A big win for Independents [sic?] (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/17/chile-ruling-coalition-heading-for-upset-in-constitutional-vote)
Quote
CNN’s local channel in Chile projected independents would win 45 seats, Chile Vamos would gain 39, the centre-left 25, the far-left 28 and a small coalition would take one seat. Seventeen seats have been reserved for the country’s indigenous communities.

On the face of it this means the governing centre-right does not have the numbers (by itself) to block changes that need 2/3 majority support.  Digging down a bit it seems that various shades of left, from centre to far, have by far the majority but more than 1/4 of the electees are 'Independent'.  Not to mention the mandated numbers for gender and indigeneouity.  Bodes for a good constitution methinks.

Anyone closer to the action willing to give a non-mainstream gloss?

Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 18, 2021, 07:51:24 am
Now all they need to do is nationalise the salt flats
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: hector13 on October 30, 2022, 07:06:51 pm
Necro-posting ‘cause it looks like Bolsonaro is on the way out, to be replaced with Lula, and I’ll be lambasted for bringing politics into emotion threads if I post there.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Great Order on October 30, 2022, 08:52:48 pm
And, kinda hilariously, he lost despite widely reported attempts at voter suppression.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 31, 2022, 02:29:42 am
What happens to Bolsonaro's paramilitaries? They willing to disband?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: anewaname on October 31, 2022, 03:58:44 am
The BBC's radio blurb says he won 50.9% of the vote (so 5% apart) and that Bolsonaro hasn't conceded yet. He is probably looking at options to win "legally" instead of using military force.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: scriver on October 31, 2022, 05:29:15 am
Necro-posting ‘cause it looks like Bolsonaro is on the way out, to be replaced with Lula, and I’ll be lambasted for bringing politics into emotion threads if I post there.

"Things that made you politick today"
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Culise on October 31, 2022, 11:12:02 pm
The BBC's radio blurb says he won 50.9% of the vote (so 5% apart) and that Bolsonaro hasn't conceded yet. He is probably looking at options to win "legally" instead of using military force.
Indeed. I suspect/fear it may not be over until they actually lever him out of the Planalto, possibly with a crowbar.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: scriver on November 01, 2022, 03:05:10 pm
My news reported earlier that he had conceded the election but now they're reporting that he has not conceded. Did he uncede himself?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: anewaname on November 01, 2022, 04:49:05 pm
CNN's just posted (https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/01/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-elections-protests-intl-latam/index.html)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

From what I recall of yesterday, some of Bolsanaro's cabinet said Lulu won the election, which might be why it seemed like he ceded earlier. The tension was about his being silent, and the speech he just made was Trump-ish but without the invading mob.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 01, 2022, 06:17:20 pm
He might not have an invading mob, but he does still have all these chaps (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/18/brazil-militias-paramilitary-far-right-bolsonaro). Which presents two problems; the first being that Bolsonaro can cause mayhem if he wants to, the second being that Bolsonaro might not even be able to control them so they may engage in disorganised violence on their own accord
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Great Order on November 23, 2022, 05:51:34 am
Bolsonaro's no longer conceding the election and is claiming fraud due to faulty voting machines.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-63724713
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 23, 2022, 07:17:41 am
Bolsonaro's no longer conceding the election and is claiming fraud due to faulty voting machines.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-63724713
And there it is! Took him longer than I expected
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 23, 2022, 04:53:22 pm
For once, I thought, just once, the fascist wasn't gonna fash. He already conceded, fuck off you ghoul.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: voliol on November 23, 2022, 06:21:20 pm
Bolsonaro's no longer conceding the election and is claiming fraud due to faulty voting machines.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-63724713
Oh dear, it happened after all :(. At least the dream was sweet when it lasted.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: scriver on November 24, 2022, 10:55:26 am
My first reaction was "do they even use voting machines in Brazil". I thought that was a USA thing.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Great Order on November 24, 2022, 06:29:49 pm
Good news is the courts threw it out and fined his party.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: scriver on November 24, 2022, 06:39:42 pm
Good guy courts

Does he concede the court ruling though?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Culise on December 07, 2022, 11:28:32 pm
President Pedro Castillo just attempted to overthrow the Peruvian government by illegally dissolving Congress and imposing a national curfew, along with trying to diddle the prosecutor's office on the side to disrupt their corruption investigations against him.  This barely lasted two hours before the resignation of most of his cabinet, and declarations of protest from Congress, the constitutional court, and the military, culminating in his own arrest and replacement by the vice president.

The Guardian news story (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/peru-president-detained-pedro-castillo-coup)
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: hector13 on December 08, 2022, 02:40:15 am
I guess that’s one problem with democracy, essentially it being a popularity contest, and people winning it confusing winning with being popular as opposed to just being the least unpopular, combined with the Trumpian idea that if you put someone in a powerful position they are expected to follow you blindly.

I have to say I respect the audacity of the move though, other than it being unbelievably short-sighted in that the things that happened afterward were pretty obvious consequences of it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: LordBaal on December 10, 2022, 03:25:51 am
I work with some people from Peru and Castillo is kinda unloved by all now (before all that). Peru's pass time is kicking unpopular and unlawful presidents out of the chair. They have like 5 under their belts now.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: ChairmanPoo on December 10, 2022, 04:15:47 am
I saw an interview of Castillo shortly before he was elected and he came across to me as a complete moron with no idea of what he was talking about. He didn't even know the proper meaning of the words
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: LordBaal on December 10, 2022, 04:18:51 am
He is. And his attempt at staying in power was enough demonstration of it.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: da_nang on January 08, 2023, 03:02:50 pm
Bolsonaro supporters are pulling a stupider J6 and are storming the Brazilian Congress. (https://www.dw.com/en/breaking-hundreds-of-bolsonaro-supporters-storm-brazils-national-congress-building/a-64320440)

The Brazilian Congress is not in recess today and supposedly empty.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 08, 2023, 04:01:55 pm
If anything its less stupid and scarier than 6J. They have a better chance of disrupting politics due to Brazil's instability (ie: what if the goverment calls down the army to kick them out and the army  takes over?
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: scriver on January 08, 2023, 04:32:53 pm
America, you are a mimetic hazard :P
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 08, 2023, 05:13:42 pm
Keter class SCP: United States of America.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 12, 2023, 07:31:56 am
Keter class SCP: United States of America.
I live in a constant state of America
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Red Diamond on January 13, 2023, 11:40:57 am
President Pedro Castillo just attempted to overthrow the Peruvian government by illegally dissolving Congress and imposing a national curfew, along with trying to diddle the prosecutor's office on the side to disrupt their corruption investigations against him.  This barely lasted two hours before the resignation of most of his cabinet, and declarations of protest from Congress, the constitutional court, and the military, culminating in his own arrest and replacement by the vice president.

The Guardian news story (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/peru-president-detained-pedro-castillo-coup)

Yes, he tried (and failed) to prevent his own overthrow.  The idea that law has anything to do with this is just pure DELUSION.  However he pissed basically everybody off by being a backstabber and throwing everybody overboard to save his own skin so it didn't work. 
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Duuvian on January 19, 2023, 03:37:57 am
Well would you look at that

https://theintercept.com/2023/01/18/genaro-garcia-luna-trial/

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Looks pretty bad. I'll note the Intercept has been deemed by some a questionable source (articles on a specific subject that seemed influenced$, though IIRC it may have only been one writer) a few times recently and generally is quite lefty, if such a site burns your eyeballs.  I look at it because it seems to be nearly entirely outside reuter's/ap repostings and has articles I won't see on three different sites as I trundle from news site to news site.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 19, 2023, 06:20:46 am
>help man traffick drugs into USA to stop men trafficking drugs into USA
Bravo
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: martinuzz on July 24, 2023, 10:13:43 pm
In Surinam, political parties are trying to reform the election laws, because the current laws are deemed discriminatory.
One part of the plan, brought forward by the VHP party, will be strongly opposed by president Brunswijk's party.
The VHP wants that elected officials can have no criminal convictions, whether it be in Surinam, or somewhere abroad.

This would mean that president Brunswijk can no longer be elected, nor can former president Bouterse.
Both have been convicted in absentia in the Netherlands for smuggling (huge amounts of) cocaine.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 24, 2023, 10:19:44 pm
In Surinam, political parties are trying to reform the election laws, because the current laws are deemed discriminatory.
One part of the plan, brought forward by the VHP party, will be strongly opposed by president Brunswijk's party.
The VHP wants that elected officials can have no criminal convictions, whether it be in Surinam, or somewhere abroad.

This would mean that president Brunswijk can no longer be elected, nor can former president Bouterse.
Both have been convicted in absentia in the Netherlands for smuggling (huge amounts of) cocaine.
That's pretty flawed, though. In such an absolute form, it means that, eg, Russia could disqualify candidates in Suriname at will by conducting show trials in absentia. Better to limit it to convictions which are valid in Suriname, but establish parity with trusted partner countries, which would certainly include Holland.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: voliol on July 26, 2023, 06:10:34 am
Even though smuggling cocaine is really bad, this seems like a suspect law, to say in the least. Marginalized groups are always more prone to criminal records, both because crime attracts the vulnerable and because criminal charges can be made to target them. And then it prevents the Mandelas of future Suriname. Hit someone for illegal opposition of the system, and they can never hold an office. Though I do know very little about Suriname, so I do not know if they have had a war on drugs or the like, this law sets a bad precedent should they ever have one.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: martinuzz on August 10, 2023, 09:48:08 am
Eleven days before the next election rounds, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was shot dead when leaving a rally at a school in Ecuador's capital Quito.
The assassination has been claimed by drug criminals.

President Guillermo Lasso has declared martial law in multiple cities, stating that 'it cannot be denied that organised crime has infiltrated the state and political organisations'.
Title: Re: Latin American Politics: Moralism
Post by: Duuvian on August 11, 2023, 05:31:28 am
Has there been information released about who the shooter was and what links they may have had if any? I have not seen any information on that yet, just speculation that it was drug cartel related because the candidate was receiving threats that he publically spoke about. This does seem like it would be the most likely explanation, but it seems also like something an erratic person could have done in how it was carried out. A third party might be able to pin the blame on the cartels for what seems to me to be an unusual shooting that seems more like something an erratic person with political motivation would do individually since I assume cartel members would have made such an attempt in a non-public (or at least non-securitized) location in the interest of escaping.

This is also helping to boost a Bukele* style candidate rise in the polls, and media has been quick to cast doubt upon the leftist party's lack of involvment as they had some level of connection with drug cartels in the past (I haven't checked to confirm this but IIRC it was a sort of amnesty deal though I might be completely wrong on that) and the assassinated candidate had been an anti-corruption critic of both cartels and a previous leftist president; from what little I know of the victim he sounds like he was actually an independent more than anything else and if I may seemed to be a good man from what I've read of him, which is quite little.

While I understand this is an extraordinary thought, I sometimes wonder if there is some sort of (loose) international cabal destabilizing nations in order to effect it's internal politics and support authoritarian candidates. Whether this includes political violence or simply takes advantage of it when it occurs I should not speculate, but I wonder about Haiti...

*Bukele is popular and has reduced gang activity dramatically. However I also read early on that his crackdown involved such things as arrests for having tattoos in certain neighborhoods. I do not know if detainees were vetted to determine actual links to gangs or if living in certain areas and having a tattoo was enough to be swept up. The courts there are doing bulk trials of detainees which is a very bad sign. This makes me wonder if his high popularity is because most of those who would be a critic have been arrested or silenced with fear.