Bay 12 Games Forum
Finally... => General Discussion => Topic started by: PTTG?? on January 21, 2011, 03:07:39 pm
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Well, the estimates are still unclear, but it appears that within the next 14-2 days, the internet as we know it will melt, implode, collapse, shoot out sparks, and bleed to death, possibly fatally.
Internet protocall version 4, the scheme that gives us the traditional xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx addresses, is set to be entirely used up in a handfull of days. At that point, all the addressses will have been assigned and no new internet-enabled devices will be possible.
Of course, IPv6 has been around for several years, but absolutely noone has done anything about it. It is only now that there is no time to make any change at all that any ISPs are taking this seriously.
So, for the next few months, we will see increasing numbers of unpredictable failures as various systems that always assumed that there will be more IPs available for them find that they don't. Most likely, prices for internet access will rise.
At some point, IPv6 will become the main system, but every point along the network must be upgraded, from the router to the major nodes and back again. Failing that, there will be serious bottlenecks created where ISPs create localized IPv4 networks and connect these with IPv6 backbones. I can only guess that these will be slower to use and easier to police than a pure IPv6 network.
So this is a bit of a preemptive goodbye to the B12 forums. I hope to see you all on the other side. A word of advice, download everything you can now. Especially Moris Code dictionaries.
PS: With any luck, the upgrade will be so technically complex and scary that we may see a reprive from eternal september, a time when once again only the technically adept may use the internet. If you can upgrade, don't tell anyone how you did it.
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christ man, most isp's have IPv6 anyway, i know Qwest has it and Windows 7 supports the protocol fully.
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Yeah I'm totally dead, all my network hook ups are IPv4.
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Where can I check what kind of internet protocol I have?
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Hah, well, it was bound to happen when you go flaunting ranges around like that.
As for me? Yeah, my router will only support V4...
But I have a static IP, and my Router is on 24/7.
...Wait.
So this is a bit of a preemptive goodbye to the B12 forums. I hope to see you all on the other side. A word of advice, download everything you can now. Especially Moris Code dictionaries.
You do realise this isn't going to shut the entire internet down, right?
At worst, a few ISPs are going to run out of IP adresses, and a few people around the world may have to wait for someone else to log off so they can log on.
Also, we could probably salvage a couple of ranges from long dead ISPs that never surrendered their purchaces. That's only last another week, but even so, it's extra ground recovered.
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Ok, whatever, no IPv6 for me.
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Where can I check what kind of internet protocol I have?
This.
5-6 year old computer potentially FTL here.
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I'm sure smart people who make a lot of money selling you internet access have made preparations for this.
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Where can I check what kind of internet protocol I have?
This.
5-6 year old computer potentially FTL here.
Network and sharing Center-> Conections:
Klick whatever is there, most likely "local area connection"
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I'm sure smart people who make a lot of money selling you internet access have made preparations for this.
Actually, yes. Other wise, there could be a lot of money getting lost.
Though, I actually have to point out that I abhore the fact that this topic has taken a doomsday aproach to the subject. It's nothing of the sort.
The internet will continue to function even if IPv4 is full.
It just means that people won't be able to get a new internet connection for awhile.
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I'm sure smart people who make a lot of money selling you internet access have made preparations for this.
Though, I actually have to point out that I abhore the fact that this topic has taken a doomsday aproach to the subject[...]
It just means that people won't be able to get a new internet connection for awhile.
And that is why.
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Where can I check what kind of internet protocol I have?
This.
5-6 year old computer potentially FTL here.
I found this site (http://test-ipv6.com/) googling "testing ipv6 connectivity".
Unfortunately for me, apparently my ISP doesn't give IPv6. Oh well, they'll give IPv6 eventually.
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Try this:
http://ipv6.google.com/
If it doesn't work, either google's down, or there's IPv4 on your supply chain.
Most ISPs certainly advertise support for IPv6, but that is generally very limited. I find it's best to assume that accuracy is achived by, wherever possible, assuming corporations are lazy and greedy. IPv6 implementation is a textbook case of not caring about it until too late.
Incidentally, this is exactly how climate change is going to play out, except without the countermeasures doing anything.
As for IPv4 exaustion not actually doing anything besides capping the number of people on the internet, I feel that's simplifying the issue, since like conventional economics, the measure of success of the internet economy isn't how many businesses there are, it's how many new ones are appearing.
That said, yes. This does have pangs of Y2K about it. Still, it's a pretty safe bet that the internet will change in the next few months, and it's probable that it won't be for the better, if only because of bottlenecks and increased "intelectual property protection" put in place with the upgrades.
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Apparently I do have an IPv6 address (boy is that a long address), but I can't go on any site solely with my IPv6 address.
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Wait, since when did the estimate go from "a couple months at most" all the way to "Under 2 weeks"?!
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Aren't you referring to an estimate thatīs a few months old per chance?
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Aren't you referring to an estimate thatīs a few months old per chance?
Yes. ::)
I feel silly now.
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Yes, you're seeing a lot of press about IPv4 and IPv6 today.
Yes, you should ask your ISP (gently) when they plan on offering IPV6.
The larger ISPs *are* working on it. Just most of them are not yet offering IPV6 to residential customers; they are still working out the final details of how to make that work. For most customers, this *probably* involves replacing one or both of the boxes in the home. Some small ISPs may not work on it terribly soon; it does involve major investment. Many small ISPs buy their "new" gear off ebay..
It is in their interest to support IPv6; trying to extend IPV4 with a large scale equivalent of your little blue router at home, and forcing several customers to share a single public IPv4 address, will break several things. Things like p2p - used by gaming, some chat and voice systems, and some file sharing systems. It will break the ability to run "servers" on your home service.
The ISPs will have their support costs go up answering questions about why specific things are broken, but web browsing works. The ISPs will also spend more and more money on the hardware that does this address sharing.
http://test-ipv6.com was mentioned here. I run that site. Do use it; and in particular, just make sure that for World IPv6 day, it says you should have no problems. This is true for 99.95% of you. You'll just keep connecting to those participating sites over your existing IPv4. If it *does* say you will have problems, take it seriously.
If it does say you have IPv6, and you don't *expect* it... see what the provider is. If it says "6to4" or "teredo", those are two methods to give you temporary addresses. Both protocols use hardware volunteered by various folks in the communities. They don't have any place to complain to if they fail. Teredo users - for most people - will find it only works for connecting to specific IP addresses, and not to web sites by name.
Hope this helps.
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The reason ISPs can't give their customers IPv6 addresses instead of IPv4 is because the Internet will break for them as many sites just won't recognize their existence.
Actually, that's not the reason. When sites go "dual stack" they will have both IPv4 and IPv6. 99.95% of the IPv4 users will have no problem. It is the remaining 0.05% that will fail. At some point, those people (or something they installed) enabled IPv6, *and* installed a default route. An example of this would be uTorrent's feature to enable IPv6 (actually enabling Teredo).
The problem is when people don't *realize* this setup is not working correctly. They don't realize it today, because the web sites they visit today, aren't yet publishing on IPv6. But once those sites do publish on IPv6, the IPv6 route is preferred (even if broken).
I foresee a lot of NAT. Lots and lots of pain-in-the-ass, indirect-connection NAT.
Absolutely. :-(
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that utorrent option actually says Install IPv6/Teredo, but you're otherwise sounding right.
Also, hello.
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I'm sure smart people who make a lot of money selling you internet access have made preparations for this.
No.
But lot of tasty, tasty work for me, so everything is good.
I foresee a lot of NAT. Lots and lots of pain-in-the-ass, indirect-connection NAT.
Yup, and reduced traffic. It's actually incredible how little work have been made. Cisco's CCNA is still mostly about ipv4.
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Well, the estimates are still unclear, but it appears that within the next 14-2 days
If I come to this website on the next 15-3 days, and this doesn't happen, I'm going to complain about people overhyping threats.
So, basically Saturday, February 5, 2011. If Doomsday doesn't occur on Feb. 5th, you'll see a complaining post on Feb. 6. Mark your calendars.
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If Doomsday doesn't occur on Feb. 5th, you'll see 2 complaining posts on Feb. 6. Mark your calendars.
Added myself.
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I am well known to exaggerate hazards. I have caused over $4,000,000 in exaggeration-related damages alone.
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I'm going to single handedly drag out IPv4 as long as I can.
My router is old, there's no way it can support v6, and there's no way I can afford a new one.
Impasse.
Though, I guess there's no harm in window shopping for a new one. If FTTC ever happens at BT claim to be doing (though, the cheeky bastards are practically lying about), then I'm gunna need a faster router anyway.
Though, I'm yet to physically see any router that's ever dreamt of being as good as this one.
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OH GOD THE WORLD IS ABOUT TO END A YEAR EARLY.
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...shopping for a new one. If FTTC ever happens...
Did somebody say my name?
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FTTC, "Fiber to the Cabinet".
Aparently that means city based corperations in England might be able to achive 50mb+ speeds.
Might
We've still got absolutely no hope for 100+ in residential properties.
As for me, it turns out FTTC isn't coming to my county. Ever.
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(http://i.imgur.com/lZZb1.png)
Oh nooooooooooooooooooooo
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(http://i.imgur.com/lZZb1.png)
Oh nooooooooooooooooooooo
Are you using manual IP assignment or something?
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This sounds way too much like the Y2K bug hype
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img
Oh nooooooooooooooooooooo
Are you using manual IP assignment or something?
No, I just finished playing Fallout for now when that came up.
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So, now that we're all prepared to freak out at the words "Connection Error" for the next few weeks, has anyone seen if there are people predicting this will be the end of the world? There generally are for every event ever, but I haven't seen any for this. Yet.
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So, now that we're all prepared to freak out at the words "Connection Error" for the next few weeks, has anyone seen if there are people predicting this will be the end of the world? There generally are for every event ever, but I haven't seen any for this. Yet.
OMG THE END OF THE WORLD!
:P
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Well, the estimates are still unclear, but it appears that within the next 14-2 days, the internet as we know it will melt, implode, collapse, shoot out sparks, and bleed to death, possibly fatally.
Internet protocall version 4, the scheme that gives us the traditional xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx addresses, is set to be entirely used up in a handfull of days. At that point, all the addressses will have been assigned and no new internet-enabled devices will be possible.
Of course, IPv6 has been around for several years, but absolutely noone has done anything about it. It is only now that there is no time to make any change at all that any ISPs are taking this seriously.
Not that I don't believe you on the scale of the problem... well, okay I don't, but I don't believe you because I'd like to have some documentation.
All the same, any tips for a Windows XP user? That ipv6.google.com thing does absolutely nothing for me.
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That ipv6.google.com thing does absolutely nothing for me.
That's the point. That site is only available on IPV6, and if your computer/ISP does not support IPv6, that site will not be available to you.
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XP Service Pack 1, Vista, and Windows 7 all have Teredo (http://yorickdowne.wordpress.com/2008/01/26/ipv6-at-home-part-1-overview-teredo/) installed already; all you have to do is activate it and you can browse IPv6 sites even with IPv4. Click on that link to learn how to activate it; note however, that it's seem incredibly complicated. Get Gogonet instead.
EDIT: And it turns out Gogonet requires me to register to their silly social networking site. Forget Gogonet. Go Teredo!
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Let me try that Teredo thing out.
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XP Service Pack 1, Vista, and Windows 7 all have Teredo (http://yorickdowne.wordpress.com/2008/01/26/ipv6-at-home-part-1-overview-teredo/) installed already; all you have to do is activate it and you can browse IPv6 sites even with IPv4. Click on that link to learn how to activate it; note however, that it's seem incredibly complicated. Get Gogonet instead.
Not to mention it explicitly says that if you have a home router, like 99% of ordinary Internet customers, you're boned anyway.
This is why I have a hard time believing the sky is going to fall, in the next few days or ever. Why in the world would ISPs as an industry sit around with their thumbs in the asses, instead of developing some workaround on their end? If the problem really is as catastrophic as described, in that big chunks of sites and addresses will be randomly unable to connect, it'll mean irate service calls out the wazoo, firmware replacement by the millions, dropped customers galore especially migrating to the first company to deliver a back-compat solution, and God knows what kind of angry advertisers. Just think of the money they'd stand to lose, it's retarded.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6i-cY_yf3A (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6i-cY_yf3A)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0&feature=related)
I have my bunker prepared
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OH NOES! FEB 5th is a VARY important date for me! I can't have the internet quit on me then!
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Unfortunately for me, apparently my ISP doesn't give IPv6. Oh well, they'll give IPv6 eventually.
Turns out, it was actually due to me turning off IPv6 in firefox(me trying to connect to the LParchive which just wouldn't connect, but it connects now strangely). *Facepalm*, so I actually can connect to the IPv6 network, even though it uses Teredo. Yay! I get 7/10 for both tests!
Now where's my cookie?
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Wait, the world's ending? I missed the memo!
Happilly pulls out Bug-out bag and wishes that he hadn't eaten so many of the MRE's out of it.
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I don't know how serious it is, but bear in mind that many Firewall systems cannot deal properly with IPV6 traffic, there are a number of exploits that work on IPV6, especially some new stuff for Metasploit and the like, these use the toredo system to give your box an IPV6 ip and then maintain a persistent shell via new methods of attack.
http://www.hak5.org/episodes/episode-810 (http://www.hak5.org/episodes/episode-810)
Note that they have to gain access to the actual system first, so as long as you are careful then it's not so bad.
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Hehe, now now, it doesn't work like that, poeple.
The IP is a number that a machine is given by a router to get accesible on a routed network (you can do a network without it with only switches). All the routers any packet goes through must be configured this way for the thing to work.
That's why we have been speaking of NAT : the process of giving an IPv4 address to an IPv6 packet to allow him to pass on a non IPv6 segment of the network. Changing your IP version at home will achieve nothing. (Beside you must be given an IP address.)
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Hopefully toady will have a new release before it all goes down.
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This is why I have a hard time believing the sky is going to fall, in the next few days or ever.
And, as someone who actually knows what they're talking about on the subject, I can tell you that things are not going to collapse in on themselves.
What the OP claims is that the IPv4 system which, 90% or so of the internet uses right now, is going to become full.
Think of it like a multi-story car park. Each parking bay is an IP address. Basically, service providers litterally buy segments of this car park, then, when you connect to the internet, your "car" goes into one of these spaces. That's an IP address in use.
Once a provider has baught a segment of the car park though, no one else can then use those spaces.
What happens when the car park is full?
Well, it certainly doesn't collapse.
Basically new cars cannot park because there is no space.
Most of the time, you'll find that there's plenty of free space in your providers allocated bays, and that you'll have no problem getting online.
And, just to fit to this analogy, I have what's called a static IP address, which you tend to have to pay a bit more for, because it can't then be pooled like a normal address.
Think of it as a reserved space, just for me. (Unless I stop paying my ISP!)
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So, if I'm getting this right, running out of IPv4 addresses will not become a problem for anyone untill there are enough people using the internet at the exact same time to fill every single address in a given ISP's owned addresses?
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Speaking of IP distribution, does anyone know how IPv6 addresses will be given out?
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It's not qute that simple.
This is, unfortunately true.
Just to try and clarify my whole multi-story carpark analogy, IP addresses are reserved per ISP or higher company... So one ISP could be at full load, and another empty, just because those IPs are open, doesn't mean you can use them, unfortuntely.
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XP Service Pack 1, Vista, and Windows 7 all have Teredo (http://yorickdowne.wordpress.com/2008/01/26/ipv6-at-home-part-1-overview-teredo/) installed already; all you have to do is activate it and you can browse IPv6 sites even with IPv4. Click on that link to learn how to activate it; note however, that it's seem incredibly complicated. Get Gogonet instead.
Not to mention it explicitly says that if you have a home router, like 99% of ordinary Internet customers, you're boned anyway.
Questionable accuracy, because according to it, I shouldn't have been able to get to google by ipv6, and yet I could when I tested it a few minutes ago...
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Is this something that can be solved through a firmware update?
Because every time I go to 192.168.1.1, (http://192.168.1.1) it scans for an update.
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Speaking of IP distribution, does anyone know how IPv6 addresses will be given out?
Easily. Same organisation, but they give them by the dozen( just like when iv4 began).
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Estimates between 6 and 8 days today. Better play as much Fallout as you can, to get a good idea of how to survive in the post-IPv4 wasteland that is fast approaching!
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oh god i can see the light..
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Estimates between 6 and 8 days today.
You keep saying that like it means something. Where are you getting these estimates? Explain yourself.
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Estimates between 6 and 8 days today.
You keep saying that like it means something. Where are you getting these estimates? Explain yourself.
Indeed.
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Andrew Hussie.
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First you take lamb bones and char them over a fire of the sacred reeds. While the air is still laden with the smoke, you must scan the top three results for a google search of some variation of the phrase "IPv4 exaustion prediction".
I'll admit it leaves some room for increased accuracy.
I used to get my results from here (http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/), but the app is broken.
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it doesn't look broken.
what do you mean?
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I'm confused. Doesn't this all just mean, in practice, that it'll take practically forever to log on to the internet (because you'll have to try several times, hoping for somebody else to disconnect to free up an address)? Personally, I started using the internet back during the heyday of dial-up modems, so needing arduous amounts of time to connect to the 'net is something that I know how to handle.
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It's not just users, however. It's also that new websites and web-active entities won't be able to connect either. The web will be frozen at this size. In effect, all new growth will have to be IPv6, and thus inaccessable to a great many users.
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It's not just users, however. It's also that new websites and web-active entities won't be able to connect either. The web will be frozen at this size. In effect, all new growth will have to be IPv6, and thus inaccessable to a great many users.
Until the stuff is fixed/updated for IPv6.
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Which will happen with the same speed and quality as we have already seen in the lead-up to exaustion.
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Things will get a little more expensive, some rates will go up, and ISPs will try to move people onto "multiple domains on the same IP" plan.
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I just checked with my ISP, to see if they've tried moving me onto a ranged IP, or announced any other similar changes.
My IP is still listed as static, and that I have only one static IP.
..But even better, an enquiry on their forum yielded this quote.
IPv4 will still work, even when the block 'runs out'.
As far as my ISP is concerned, they're just not doing a damned thing about this whole "impending doom" scenario.
...And it seems I'm better off for it.
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Things will get a little more expensive, some rates will go up, and ISPs will try to move people onto "multiple domains on the same IP" plan.
This is the essential issue here; they could have fixed this gradually and kept rates low and services high, but they waited and waited to no-one's benifit at all.
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It's a real shame that most ISP's have simply sat back and not done anything towards switching, there are no benefits to staying with IPv4, and apart from the setup costs there are no drawbacks to IPv6, especially as a number of issues with NAT are mostly eliminated (assuming NAT doesn't make it's way into the IPv6 Specification).
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...oh nuts. I had thought that, since my address was not xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx-like but rather xx.xx.xxx.xxx-like I would not have only IPv4. Turns out I do :O
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...oh nuts. I had thought that, since my address was not xxx.xxx.xxx.xxx-like but rather xx.xx.xxx.xxx-like I would not have only IPv4. Turns out I do :O
That's an 0xx.0xx.xxx.xxx Address. It's just a lower number.
Also, what's so bad about having IPv4?
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Erm, this thread is about what's bad about having an IPv4 address. Namely, they run out in six days, and users with dynamic IPs will have to wait for someone else to log off before they can log on.
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...users with dynamic IPs will have to wait for someone else to log off before they can log on.
This is the part that I don't quite understand. It's not like the entire Internet is constantly talking to every other server in the world. There's no Internet Immigration Authority checking your IP Address to make sure it's totally unique in the world at all times. Wouldn't identical IPs only matter if they meet up in the same serverspace? Or am I completely wrong about how this works, which isn't unlikely.
I still refuse to believe that an industry as massive as telecommunications would see a problem as apocalyptic as described from as far off as described, and refuse to do anything about it on their end. If the situation is as described, an entire industry stands to gain nothing and lose tons of money. Why would they allow that to happen?
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This is terrible.
We should all panic.
Sound the alarms!
I still refuse to believe that an industry as massive as telecommunications would see a problem as apocalyptic as described from as far off as described, and refuse to do anything about it on their end. If the situation is as described, an entire industry stands to gain nothing and lose tons of money. Why would they allow that to happen?
Sorry, they can't hear you over the sound of their money.
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Actually, you probably won't have to wait.
It's gunna take awhile for ISPs to sell that many IPv4 addresses.
It just means you won't be able to start up your own ISP any time soon.
This is the part that I don't quite understand. It's not like the entire Internet is constantly talking to every other server in the world. There's no Internet Immigration Authority checking your IP Address to make sure it's totally unique in the world at all times. Wouldn't identical IPs only matter if they meet up in the same serverspace? Or am I completely wrong about how this works, which isn't unlikely.
Well, actually, IP addresses are actually addresses.
Imagine if two buildings had the same address + Zipcode/Postcode whatever.
Basically, you'd then have two places to send one piece of mail.
I still refuse to believe that an industry as massive as telecommunications would see a problem as apocalyptic as described from as far off as described, and refuse to do anything about it on their end. If the situation is as described, an entire industry stands to gain nothing and lose tons of money. Why would they allow that to happen?
This goes back the whole point.
Nothing bad is really going to happen. ISPs probably have enough surplus IP addresses to last them until they finally make the switch on their own steam.
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...users with dynamic IPs will have to wait for someone else to log off before they can log on.
This is the part that I don't quite understand. It's not like the entire Internet is constantly talking to every other server in the world. There's no Internet Immigration Authority checking your IP Address to make sure it's totally unique in the world at all times. Wouldn't identical IPs only matter if they meet up in the same serverspace? Or am I completely wrong about how this works, which isn't unlikely.
I still refuse to believe that an industry as massive as telecommunications would see a problem as apocalyptic as described from as far off as described, and refuse to do anything about it on their end. If the situation is as described, an entire industry stands to gain nothing and lose tons of money. Why would they allow that to happen?
good point, If you both search on google at the same time, you may have an issue.
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Well, actually, IP addresses are actually addresses.
Imagine if two buildings had the same address + Zipcode/Postcode whatever.
Basically, you'd then have two places to send one piece of mail.
It has been proposed to use that to send packages to anyone in a peer-to-peer network, via a technique called multicasting (package would end up at anyone or even multiple persons with the same multicast address). Problem was and still is that ISP's didn't feel like replacing their hardware for an experimental feature.
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This whole thing sounds like bullshit to me. The inability to connect to the internet would screw so many people over, if were really something to worry about, ISPs would have/will take care of it.
Also, this machine, like the rest of the computers we've got at home, has a local IP address, I'm sure I'm not the only one on 192.168.1.05.
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Also, this machine, like the rest of the computers we've got at home, has a local IP address, I'm sure I'm not the only one on 192.168.1.05.
You don't put zeros in before any other number, just like you don't say 0002 + 0002 = 0004.
Also, that's because you're using a router, which will definitely have an external IP address, and I'm pretty certain will use standard NAT to communicate between the two.
...So yeah, you have a standard, external IPv4 IP address, like everyone else here.
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This whole thing sounds like bullshit to me. The inability to connect to the internet would screw so many people over, if were really something to worry about, ISPs would have/will take care of it.
I agree with you, but
Sorry, they can't hear you over the sound of their money.
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They did a lot of thing... to make ipv4 last longer.
Just switching to IPv6 ask for massive cooperation. It's the govs that should have moved.
But they (the govs) have the technology awareness of a duck.
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An amish duck.
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In the middle of nowhere.
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Any IP starting with 192.168 is a local IP that is used on your local network only. The router has a single IP of it's own that is seen by everyone else.
Also, it is possible to set up IPv6 access even if all you have is IPv4, either due to router or ISP. The IPv4 depletion will only mean that anyone who wants to get an address for their cell phone, dishwasher, radio, or cat, must tolerate an IPv6 address, and if they had from the start, there would be plenty of IPv4 left for everyone.
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I was sort of under the impression that we'd run out of IP addresses years ago... I guess the fact that multiple residential users are crammed together under a single address gave me that impression... I'm pretty sure this is just going to mean that more people will be crammed under one address... I mean you can actually cram a hell of a lot together, even if it does slow things down a little.
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You could cram the whole world behind a few dozen routers if anyone tried. The lag would be god-like in its immensity and everyone would think its the worst idea ever, but it sounds possible from what I've heard and we'd likely never run out of IPs as long as people didn't have multiple phones.
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I should also like to point out that the majority of addresses are dynamic addresses which are assigned on the fly, if you're at home, you're probably using a dynamic address. Which can be changed around. The reason for this is so they can change dynamic addresses used for multiple small users to a static one for a big company somewhere. So the IP address system currently used is very flexible. We are in no danger of the internet suddenly crashing... Unless Turkey blocks Youtube again.
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Did anyone else here a distant "thud (https://www.apnic.net/publications/news/2011/delegation)" kinda noise?
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pfft so much for the end then.
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I am well known to exaggerate hazards. I have caused over $4,000,000 in exaggeration-related damages alone.
Anyway, we have about six months before the regional sections start to run out.
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Did it happen? I'm currently using someone else's internet, mine isn't working no matter what I try.
(I actually have no idea what's happening really)
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This is hype.
The last high level IP block was sold last week. This will not melt down the internet. This will affect hardly anyone.
What will happen in the short term is that the private owners of ip blocks will start selling/renting/leasing them to others and service providers will be silently NATing you if they run out of IP addresses.
Meanwhile, ipv6 deployment is progressing at an orderly but slow pace and will eventually become more and more mainstream.
At some point, people are going to start turning off IPV4 service a few years from now. That is when some parts of the internet will start going dark for the few remaining pure ipv4 users.
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At some point, people are going to start turning off IPV4 service a few years from now.
And by "a few years from now" you mean when the last IPv4-only piece of equipment leaves the Internet.
Which might occur sometime this century.
Don't underestimate the potential of computer-related technology to suddenly have its user count explode. Remember when the iPhone was some amazing new thing that only fortunate people could afford? And then a billion clone products came out, so now a huge number of people have them all of a sudden? I could see somthing like that (Obviously, clone products would not apply.) happening to the IPv4-IPv6 conversion.
Hell, it wasn't so long ago that computers themselves were somthing that only businesses, the millitary, and nerds used. And yet, here we are.
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This is why people are still using IE 6.
IE6 DOES NOT WORK FOR ME. GET ME OUT OF THIS HELL HOLE.
this is what I'm forced to use at work...
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found this via reddit: http://www.focus.com/images/view/49504/
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According to Hurricane Electrics (http://tunnelbroker.net/), we've run out of IANA IPv4 addresses. WE'RE SCREWEEEDDDD [/sarcasm]
Edit: Gah, my internet is dropping about 1/4ths of the packets sent on pings. That's not good.
Edit2: Okay, I think the slowdown's stopped for now, thankfully.
Edit3: Ernope. Still slowing down, shifting between okay and 1/4th loss. That sucks royally.
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Well, the estimates are still unclear, but it appears that within the next 14-2 days
If I come to this website on the next 15-3 days, and this doesn't happen, I'm going to complain about people overhyping threats.
So, basically Saturday, February 5, 2011. If Doomsday doesn't occur on Feb. 5th, you'll see a complaining post on Feb. 6. Mark your calendars.
[Insert Complaint Here]
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*ComplainYellComplainComplainPoint*
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
Time zones man, time zones.
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
Time zones man, time zones.
Yeah, maybe. Buuuuuut:
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:00:55
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:02:23
Maybe not.
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Yoou know the link in your sigquote goes nowhere, right Tarran?
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
Time zones man, time zones.
Yeah, maybe. Buuuuuut:
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:00:55
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:02:23
Maybe not.
So what? According to my clock it was almost midnight. Just means you're a bit behind us, 's all.
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Yoou know the link in your sigquote goes nowhere, right Tarran?
Yeah, that's because the thread was deleted for a reason I do not know(I was asleep at the time).
You guys are 1 day early, you know.
Time zones man, time zones.
Yeah, maybe. Buuuuuut:
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:00:55
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:02:23
Maybe not.
So what? According to my clock it was almost midnight. Just means you're a bit behind us, 's all.
It means your argument is null. You argued that it could be 06 at their time. I proved you wrong.
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Wait, profile? I thought that was the time from the quotes. My bad.
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Well, time to add another mark to the counter.
Doomsday Events Come True: 0
Doomsday Events Not Come True: 41610256
I mean, no one really claimed it would be the end of the world, but I have to keep all my bases covered.
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
Time zones man, time zones.
Yeah, maybe. Buuuuuut:
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:00:55
Local Time: 2011-02-05, 18:02:23
Maybe not.
You're right, I was supposed to complain on Feb. 6th. Eh, it's the Super Bowl (tm), I'd be busy then.
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
It doesn't matter, the center repository ran out on the first. That's what we were talking about.
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
It doesn't matter, the center repository ran out on the first. That's what we were talking about.
But the lights are still on, so nyah.
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You guys are 1 day early, you know.
It doesn't matter, the center repository ran out on the first. That's what we were talking about.
But the lights are still on, so nyah.
Lo, I am struck a blow by wit.
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If I am interpreting what I recall having read here properly, there are only 16 million addresses that are completely unclaimed left. Each of the 5 major regions has over 16 million of their own to distribute, and once they run out they must draw from that last global pool of 16 million(all but that last 16m were given out to the regions, not long ago).
Each region will start to run out within 2011, getting vanishingly smaller blocks of unused addresses from the global pool, eventually reaching a point where you just can't get any new addresses. Once the region runs out, companies will be unable to get any new addresses, so they must use what they already have.
(unlike some of what I type, this was NOT verified by a visit to google.com, so could be utterly wrong. Don't cite me on any of this)
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The central repository is empty. The regional pools are emptying and will be empty in about eight or nine months. When these start to run out, most likely in the East Asian region first, then gradually the supply will dry up and companies will need to buy IPs from one another, increasing costs.
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The central repository is empty. The regional pools are emptying and will be empty in about eight or nine months. When these start to run out, most likely in the East Asian region first, then gradually the supply will dry up and companies will need to buy IPs from one another, increasing costs.
So until IPv6 becomes the main thing, people can theoretically buy up lots of IP-addresses now and sell them later for profit?
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The central repository is empty. The regional pools are emptying and will be empty in about eight or nine months. When these start to run out, most likely in the East Asian region first, then gradually the supply will dry up and companies will need to buy IPs from one another, increasing costs.
So until IPv6 becomes the main thing, people can theoretically buy up lots of IP-addresses now and sell them later for profit?
You'll probs need to buy them in bulk at high prices to start off with, so it'll be hard.
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Presumably, one could buy a static IP adress from their ISP under a long-term contract, ensuring that they have no issues in the upcoming months.
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Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the internet...
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/
1 Day until APNIC runs out. You might want to hold onto something heavy so you aren't flung into space when the planet abruptly stops spinning.
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Estimates between 6 and 8 days today.
1 Day until APNIC runs out.
I'm no mathematician, but I think it's been a few more than 7 days between these posts.
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Man we're screwed. <Good> thing I stored up on a bomb shelter amount of manga.
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BEFORE IT RUNS OUT WE SHOULD ALL ILLEGALLY PIRATE AS MUCH just kidding, don't have me for breakfast Toady!
Oh well. Looks like Asia has already run out according to a google news search, and they're experiencing some problems.
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Well crap. Which region is APNIC?
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Well crap. Which region is APNIC?
Asia. I had read it wrong; the USA and Europe aren't running out; that's why you don't see them on the news.
No reason to panic, anyone, sorry for supporting the sensationalism. However, if you live in Asia (http://gcn.com/articles/2011/04/14/apnic-ipv4-address-depletion-asia.aspx)...
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Well, look on the bright side, after we switch to IPv6, we won't have this kind of problem again for a VERY long time.
340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 addresses.
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Well, look on the bright side, after we switch to IPv6, we won't have this kind of problem again for a VERY long time.
340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456 addresses.
In a show of ludicrous skepticism that makes no sense, I give it about 3 hours.
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We'll just invent mobile devices that everyone in the world gets a dozen of that take up sixteen IP addresses each. After all, if we're not actively attempting to deplete the world's IP address supplies as fast as possible, we're not making scientific progress.
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We'll just invent mobile devices that everyone in the world gets a dozen of that take up sixteen IP addresses each. After all, if we're not actively attempting to deplete the world's IP address supplies as fast as possible, we're not making scientific progress.
You obviously belong here.
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Gentlemen, the Internet Apocalypse will come. We must all pray to Toady for assistance.
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Does IPv6 increase the number of ports?
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Well, crap.
Hold on extra hard to your tinfoil hats, people.
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Does IPv6 increase the number of ports?
Good question. DO we need more ports, too?
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Does IPv6 increase the number of ports?
Good question. DO we need more ports, too?
yes. Makes port competition more avoidable and makes port scanning less productive.
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As a person in one of the member countries of the APNIC, I can assure you that most of us are blissfully unaware of this threat of doom that stands upon us, I however have constructed a secret base to survive the forthcoming apocalypse.
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Why in the name of 4chan are they doing this shit!?
WHY CAN'T THEY KEEP IT HOW IT WAS!?
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Because there won't be enough IP adresses for everyone if we stay on IPv4. And for the moment, no one is doing anything, just waiting for them to actually run out and crash.
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10/10 for your IPv4 stability and readiness, when publishers offer both IPv4 and IPv6
0/10 for your IPv6 stability and readiness, when publishers are forced to go IPv6 only
:(
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Or just run out and....run out.
It's not as if the entire IP namespace is going to evaporate if it's full--in the same way that if the postal service runs out of ZIP codes, all the mailboxes in the country don't burst into flames. Home networks aren't the problem. Most operate behind a router nowadays, so the whole home is taking up precisely one (usually dynamic) IP. It's the mobile gadgets like smartphones and iPads that have been the big explosion.
Upgrades will happen, even if they're a little kludgy and painful for a while, in the same way we broke the 640k memory barrier, the same way we got past Y2K, the same way we (in the US) converted from analog TV to digital, the same way pretty much all computer technology advances--people will come up with some various implementations of a new standard, the marketplace will decide which ones survive and which don't, and eventually obsolescence will force everyone to play catch-up.
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It's not as if the entire IP namespace is going to evaporate if it's full--in the same way that if the postal service runs out of ZIP codes, all the mailboxes in the country don't burst into flames.
I don't believe you. The Postal Service has to be doing somthing with all the money being thrown at them, and if it isn't combating Fatal Postal Combustion, then what?
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It's not as if the entire IP namespace is going to evaporate if it's full--in the same way that if the postal service runs out of ZIP codes, all the mailboxes in the country don't burst into flames.
I don't believe you. The Postal Service has to be doing somthing with all the money being thrown at them, and if it isn't combating Fatal Postal Combustion, then what?
Based on what I see at my local post office? They're trying very hard to find new ways to become even more technologically anachronistic. And still screwing that up.
My best guess would be vellum scrolls on trained carrier pigeons--which are then placed into a labrynthine series of pneumatic tubes that run under the entire continent. I hear Tube Pigeon Protocol 2 is supposed to be faster though. And less messy.
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We'll just invent mobile devices that everyone in the world gets a dozen of that take up sixteen IP addresses each. After all, if we're not actively attempting to deplete the world's IP address supplies as fast as possible, we're not making scientific progress.
As a countermeasure, I propose that IPv8 uses an arbitrary series of these (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable-length_quantity), arranged in a tree that can expand both downwards (sub-networks), and upwards (inter-solar networking). Then, define ports as simply addresses that exist in a sub-tree of the host PC.
There, each program can open an unlimited number of ports while taking up a single parent port, a virtual machine looks exactly like a real machine from the outside network, and there are enough addresses that we will literally never run out, even giving every human one billion addresses per phone, 1000 phones each, and a human population in the trillions per star system, of which there are millions inhabited.
(Downside: Ban evaders and spambots now have as many addresses they want, though banning their subnet would solve that...)
Really, it's just an extrapolation of IPv6's network prefix and host parts into an arbitrarily long tree-based identifier, and the jump from 1 byte per chunk to two (11.111.111.41 vs af42:24ed:...) to infinite potential bytes per level of the infinite-potential-level-deep tree, then combining ports with subnetworks. ("infinite" in this case means "as large as your hardware limits it" rather than "as large as the protocol limits it", so that as the hardware improves, the protocol and software can instantaneously take advantage of the improvement without even needing to recompile.)