Bay 12 Games Forum

Finally... => General Discussion => Topic started by: Loud Whispers on August 04, 2014, 06:04:15 pm

Title: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 04, 2014, 06:04:15 pm
So the Europol thread as it does is debating about who would win in a war, the EU or the USA. This got me thinking.

Who would actually win? So I started tallying up some numbers.



A comparison of the top 10 military powers of Europe vs the USA.

Spoiler: Infantry! (click to show/hide)
Sum total top 10:
AFP: 1,543,706
ARP: 2,034,170 (Poland and Ukraine putting in work providing 3/4 of all reserve personnel)

VS USA
AFP: 1,430,000
ARP: 850,880

It's assumed that Switzerland abandons its eternal policy of neutrality for some reason and that all of Europe has united with fanatical zeal to stop America and has dramatically reorganized all of its armed forces under one language, one command system and one military. It also assumes that Russia is playing along nicely even with Ukraine because Putin is pleased by these anti-American turn of events. Population wise, Europe can afford many more civilian casualties than America in a non-nuclear war with a much larger population, twice that of America's. These statistics also do not factor in the estimated 288,000,000 armed American civilians, so they're both roughly evenly matched for as long as Europe doesn't invade America.

Sum total top 10:
Tanks: 7,751
AFVs: 42,144
Artillery: 5,134
MLRSs: 1,456

VS USA:
Tanks: 8,325
AFVs: 25,782
Artillery: 3,725
MLRSs: 1,330

The European armies sport some really advanced tanks from the British Challenger 2 to the German Leopard 2A5 and some tanks dating all the way back to the cold war like the T-54s and T-55s used by former Soviet states, it's an evenly mixed bag with the American M1 Abrams outclassing and being outclassed pretty evenly. The deciding factor here is the abundance of European AFVs, the ability to move troops around is invaluable for just about any reason you want, mobility is a tenet of war. Point goes to Europeans.

Spoiler: Air power! (click to show/hide)
Sum total top 10:
Fighters: 1,138
Attack craft: 1,085
Logistics aircraft: 2,251
Helicopters: 2,672
Serviceable airports: 2,275

VS USA:
Fighters: 2,271
Attack craft: 2,601
Logistics aircraft: 5,222
Helicopters: 6,926
Serviceable airports: 13,513

It doesn't matter if the Typhoon is faster and more cost efficient than the F-35 as the numbers speak for themselves. Clear American victory here. Point to America for overwhelming aerial superiority.

Spoiler: NAVAL WARFARE! (click to show/hide)
Sum total top 10:
Aircraft carriers: 5
Frigates: 80
Destroyers: 10
Submarines: 44
Corvettes: 23
CDC: 92
MWS: 278
MMS: 3022
Major ports: 76

VS USA:
Aircraft carriers: 10
Frigates: 15
Destroyers: 62
Corvettes: 0
Submarines: 72
CDC: 13
MWS: 13
MMS: 393
Major ports: 24

Greater quantities of carriers, destroyers and submarines means that the US navy is more than capable of threatening Europe's vast merchant navy across the world. Point to the USA for naval superiority.

Spoiler: Shekel war (click to show/hide)
Sum total top 10:
GDP: $14,075 B
Defence budget: $219 B
External Debt: $30,529 B
Reserves of Forex & Gold: $1,535 B (Swizterland's swimming in Forex and Gold with 1/3 of team Europe's Forex/Gold reserves)
PPP: $13,390 B

VS USA
GDP: $15,680 B
Defence Budget: $612B
External Debt: $15,930 B
Reserves of Forex & Gold: $150B
PPP: $15,940 B

The external debt for Europe is misleading, since it belongs more to individual countries more than others and so would affect countries like France, Germany and Britain more than say, Switzerland. Keeping in mind this is the top 10 military powers of Europe and not the top 10 Economic powers of Europe, clear winner is Europe because of the vast amounts of resources they can employ in shekel war. Point to Europe for their financial powerhouses from London to Zurich to Frankfurt.

Spoiler: Nukes and Seuss (click to show/hide)
Sum total:
450-555 warheads in addition to 600 American warheads

VS USA
4,513 (after deducting 600 warheads).

Point to USA.


Points all over the place to USA. The EU is such an awkward state trying to work with Nation states who all have their own agendas and really only Germany likes it right now, what with euroskepticism being at its highest. Pride in being European is nonexistent, nationalistic pride in individual sovereign states is sparsely dotted around the Eastern European nations, Britain, France and wherever a far-right group has wriggled their way into a European state that's suffering through a poor Eurozone. It would take something absolutely amazing to get all the European states to unanimously declare total war against the USA and mobilize all their manpower, finances and military to meet the Americans in combat and would also be in direct contradiction with the traditions of many states like Switzerland's neutrality or Britain's special relationship with the USA. An invasion of the US is impossible since the US has absolute naval superiority and its heavily armed civilian populace. The Americans clap a lot and love their flags, their nationalistic pride is Germany after the world cup all day every day. The quality of their armed forces takes back seat to the sheer volume of equipment and materiel they can field against their European counterparts in a total war, and their quality isn't even that bad. They have veterans from several wars that only France and Britain can claim to match, their navy is unmatched, their air force is unmatched, their special forces are pretty damn good (though that's an area in which the Europeans definitely win) and they have so much oil of their own whereas Europe is heavily dependent on imports. That said, I also do not see how America WOULD go about defeating the EU. Being vastly superior is one thing, but actually winning is another. I think I'll make a forum game out of that, but until then, Armchair General General! - /AGG

Question for the day, how and where would the USA land on Europe?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on August 04, 2014, 06:18:15 pm
Completely from my armchair, I would imagine the US would base its decision off of intelligence.  But, given our bases/friends in ME we could simply march in from the east, but more than likely thats for small bands and drones.

I would say Spain/Portugal.  Closer to France, perhaps, but I would be interested in the economic strongholds; personally focus on Germany, France, and England.  W

I choose Spain for its ease of access from the sea, despite how obvious it could be.  So I would favor smaller strikes from the ME and Southern Mediterranean while leaving England and the better defended north alone (until they were weakened).

I would definitely want to take the southern Countries out first.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Digital Hellhound on August 04, 2014, 06:27:50 pm
While this is all very silly - why not take over the UK first, if you have naval superiority? You get yourself a nice Airstrip One to launch further invasions from. It has the extra fun factor of doing what the Brits did for hundreds of years against them, and blocking all attempts to send aid across the Channel from the rest of Europe (you'd have to block the east too, naturally).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: stabbymcstabstab on August 04, 2014, 06:37:46 pm
PTW.

Another thing to consider in this war is geography Europe is rather flat and urban while the east coast is a thin strip of cities next to mountains making the US much more defensible.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on August 04, 2014, 06:43:55 pm
I'm curious who Canada would join in a world war between Britain and the US. If the war came out of nowhere and Canada joined Europe, it'd obviously be a total wipe, but I dunno, give it 20 years of hostile relations and a militarization of the border...


...still probably a total wipe.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 04, 2014, 07:01:21 pm
Completely from my armchair, I would imagine the US would base its decision off of intelligence.  But, given our bases/friends in ME we could simply march in from the east, but more than likely thats for small bands and drones.
That's IF anyone in the middle east sides with the US. I don't think that's anything that could be relied on. The most important country that America would also have to get on its side would be Turkey and that's just not going to happen.

I would say Spain/Portugal.  Closer to France, perhaps, but I would be interested in the economic strongholds; personally focus on Germany, France, and England.
Spain and Portugal seem all right, but then you'd be harrowed by the British and French from Bordeaux to Gibraltar.

While this is all very silly - why not take over the UK first, if you have naval superiority? You get yourself a nice Airstrip One to launch further invasions from. It has the extra fun factor of doing what the Brits did for hundreds of years against them, and blocking all attempts to send aid across the Channel from the rest of Europe (you'd have to block the east too, naturally).
Naval superiority is not all that's needed to launch an invasion any more, the Americans would have to send their ships all the way across the Atlantic meaning their first attacks (they get multiple chances simply because they have many carriers) have to break through and land soldiers down before any aircraft even get close. The British had naval superiority in the Falklands war against a foe entrenched on an island but an American attack on the British Isles would be subject to submarine fire (some of which include Royal Navy subs which pride themselves on never having been detected even by Americans during joint military excersizes, not even going to bring up the sexy astute class submarine) aerial attacks from Britain, France and Spain (fielding some of the most modern aircraft on their home turf from several airbases with no risk of losing everything should one vital point fall - as is the case with a carrier).

Another thing to consider in this war is geography Europe is rather flat and urban while the east coast is a thin strip of cities next to mountains making the US much more defensible.
That's an advantage I should add to the Europeans, the American's bad geography :P
There are a lot of mountains in Europe, really only the southern English, northern French, Belgium, Dutch and northern German countryside are that flat.

I would think sending task forces to patrol the Atlantic for European vessels would be the start. Then intense misdirection would have to take place, flooding Twitter and Facebook with reports of an American fleet moving towards Spain and Portugal, and sure enough there would be an American fleet moving to Spain and Portugal.

Then a carrier group through the Suez would start the actual invasion, dropping the invasion force in Greece along the southern coasts. There are plenty of beaches near roads, cities and ports meaning a rapid landing could secure America the foothold it would need to engage in protracted war against Europe. Its immediate resistance would be Greek F-16s and Mirages, a fight carrier-based F-35s would be much more readily available to win in than against other F-35s and Typhoons. If the US Navy goes en masse then it could flood Greek skies with well over 800 or even 900 attack craft and the Europeans would be much harder pressed to respond to that than an obvious invasion in the Iberian peninsula or the British Isles. An invasion of the Scandinavian peninsula is also entertaining, take Britain or Iceland and that'd also seem feasible. Heck, an invasion from Iceland sounds actually rather possible. Armchair research begins in earnest.

I'm curious who Canada would join in a world war between Britain and the US.
A war between JUST Britain and the US? Canada would stay neutral, Britain would get massacred and Canada doesn't do massacres :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on August 04, 2014, 07:05:55 pm
why is switzerland listed on the european side? Switzerland isn't part of the EU. it is part of some of the economic treaties, but it feels out of place in this context.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 04, 2014, 07:10:44 pm
why is switzerland listed on the european side? Switzerland isn't part of the EU. it is part of some of the economic treaties, but it feels out of place in this context.
It's all of Europe vs America, even Switzerland, Norway and the Balkans are in on it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on August 04, 2014, 07:49:47 pm
ah, missed the others. Still, the question in the first line is about an EU vs USA fight...

But whatever, the fine points aren't that relevant. Even if Europe had the advantage in every single field listed, lack of cohesion would make USA win the war, be it economical war or military war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 04, 2014, 08:35:17 pm
I'm I was planning the American invasion of Europe I see Britain as the only logical option.  While the USMC can land on any beach in the world they're gonna have a bad time without air superiority.  That means getting carrier and land based aircraft to the frontline.  Greenland->Iceland->Britain lets the US use it's naval advantage to clear and hold naval zones of Euro attack subs.  Once you have the sonobouy lines re-established and make the North Sea a no man's land it's go time for Operation SeaEagle.  Cover the English channel in napalm (war is hell, y'know) so that Euro forces are put in a damned either way position of having to chose between focusing on Continental or British land forces posture (my bet is they chose the Continent).  Then land in England with every damn thing you got and race for the cliffs of Dover.

If operation SeaEagle succeeds then one of the three major industrial threats is removed.  US ground forces focus on holding England at all costs.  The battle for the air begins in earnest as US and Euro forces fight out a giant modern battle of Britain.  I'm not really sure where Loud Whispers is getting his numbers from but masses of F-16s and F-15s seem to be inflating US numbers here, there aren't 2000 F-22s and F-35s combined in existence.  It would be a tough fight but if the US could knock out French and German air industries in the areas closer to England, they could win the air war through attrition and be ready for an invasion of the continent.  Here I say it's best to throw a curveball and skip past Normandy and go through the Netherlands into the German industrial heartland.

I could make some rules of this if you guys wanna forum wargame this.  I'm thinking 5 players, one US, four Euro, thus capturing the fractured problem Europe faces.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on August 04, 2014, 10:45:02 pm
Is there a pre-emptive strike?  Or a common build up of forces among hostile relations that get set off by whatever?  (Then Mericah goes "There be TerroristsWMDs in em dar cities!  Get em!")

I'm assuming that you are assuming that the US gets Sea Superiority...  At least over the Atlantic Ocean.
Also assuming unmentioned countries will be fairly neutral and/or allowing one side or the other military access... and assuming nukes are not gonna be flung around....  (If they are, just blow up a large population center first.... and subjugate em if they are more sanethe sane ones, while glassing the ones who try to shoot back.)

Initially, the US needs a close launching point.  Base of operations where they can resupply and launch invasions from.  If they come by Sea.

First pick for launching point is Morocco, where stuff from the US goes to, before being shipped off to make a land invasion on Spain/Portugal.  Well more specifically, that strip of Spain coast inbetween the Straight of Gibraltor and Portugal.
That is where I would begin the land invasion.  Controlling the Straight of Gibraltor would also allow force projection into the Mediterranean and might allow the US another land invasion point.

Though, with today's naval tech.  The US could probably shell the shit out of anything near the coast... well, if they could keep subs and bombers off em.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordBucket on August 04, 2014, 11:04:04 pm
I also do not see how America WOULD go about defeating the EU.

Simply give the order to attack (http://www.letsgo-europe.com/Germany/military/installations.html)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Flying Dice on August 04, 2014, 11:15:48 pm
Actually, let's flip things about. For the purpose of the question, assume that the war is non-nuclear, that the U.S. has no military presence in Europe before the outbreak of war, and that U.S. naval superiority no longer exists. How would an allied European force go about launching an invasion of the U.S.? A direct landing on the eastern seaboard seems doomed to failure in part because of something previously mentioned -- you're landing in cities and quickly run into mountains if you make it through.

It's a recipe for massive civilian casualties and the U.S. may well lose Washington, but at that point any landed force is trapped in a tall killzone for U.S. aircraft and artillery -- and the slightly more viable alternatives seem to be either landing somewhere along the Gulf of Mexico or trying to land a force in northern Canada, move it across the Shield, and cut down somewhere west of the Great Lakes. A landing in the Pacific Northwest might be viable, but it would probably be spotted long before the fleet arrived.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 04, 2014, 11:32:08 pm
There is no way to successfully invade the mainland United States. Period. Your best case scenario is to cause a societal collapse, but you won't be occupying that, you've just managed to create Afghanistan at its worst times infinity (I've argued before that American society has every element besides a breakdown of the rule of law for this to happen), which will take decades if not a century to end.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on August 05, 2014, 12:12:03 am
There is no way to successfully invade the mainland United States. Period. Your best case scenario is to cause a societal collapse, but you won't be occupying that, you've just managed to create Afghanistan at its worst times infinity (I've argued before that American society has every element besides a breakdown of the rule of law for this to happen), which will take decades if not a century to end.

Which elements are those? I'd say the U.S is a pretty darn stable place. I do agree though that invading the mainland U.S would cause an unprecedented level of attrition for any attacker as well as huge civilian casualties. It's a pretty goddamm big place to try to administer, nationalist sentiment is high, supply lines would be long and extremely vulnerable as a rule, we're swimming in guns and ammuniton, and have a well trained and equipped regular military.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 05, 2014, 12:21:44 am
Exactly. The US is huge, relatively accepting of violence for a western nation, has a variety of terrain that would be hellish to navigate under warlike conditions (every mountain, swamp, deep forest, and canyon), is chalk full of guns, is chalk full of people who can make guns and ammo with junk in their garage, is full of vehicles, has plenty of people who would not even consider peaceable relations towards each other if not for that being the societal norm (and certainly wouldn't accept the ones they disagree with having statelike power over them). As long as the rule of law holds and we remain united, yes, the US is stable. However, if you reach the point where a war actually breaks America, doesn't cause a change of government or anything like that but truly severs the social institutions that people live off of, then the result would be a nearly unparalleled nightmare.

I mean, look at the rift the Civil War left. It still hasn't healed, and that was only two factions fighting for a few years with far inferior weapons technology over a century ago. The cycle of violence would have rpm.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on August 05, 2014, 12:36:53 am
When you put it that way, it makes a lot more sense that such huge effort is expended toward encouraging patriotism and crushing calls for change to the system (looking at OWS and the various reactionary groups that tend to burn brightly for a little while, then disappear.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on August 05, 2014, 01:15:39 am
Well, as far es EU invading USA goes, in Hearts of Iron 2, as united Europe (well, united under German rule, but whatever), there was one relatively sensible way - take the Caribbean and go up from there. That said, without prior nuclear bombardment of all major cities AND huge, huge occupying force, I just don't see the occupation happen...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on August 05, 2014, 01:27:56 am
The other option would be to hope for a friendly Canada, and attack from there.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 05, 2014, 03:31:36 am
Simply give the order to attack (http://www.letsgo-europe.com/Germany/military/installations.html)
There's only over 65,000 Murrican troops in Europe, not nearly enough. Even in Germany they'd be outnumbered nearly 9 to 1, and that's where a third of them are stationed.

How would an allied European force go about launching an invasion of the U.S.?
Invade from the Bermuda Islands, French Guiana and pray and hope that Obama causes half of America to join the invaders.

I could make some rules of this if you guys wanna forum wargame this.  I'm thinking 5 players, one US, four Euro, thus capturing the fractured problem Europe faces.
Funny you mention that, I thought 5 Euros was the number too :P
North sea Islands +Scandi peninsula, Iberian & French Peninsula (w/ Netherlands and Belgium), central Europe, Mediterranean Europe and Eastern Europe vs USA. Could maybe divide the American team into various generals so if one disappears for any reason command of the American invasion doesn't immediately fall apart.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 05, 2014, 03:48:59 am
Cut all American forces by two thirds. Those need to stay at home to prevent South America moving in.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 05, 2014, 03:54:25 am
Cut all American forces by two thirds. Those need to stay at home to prevent South America moving in.
Some of the South America militaries are nice nice and well but how would they even get to the USA?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 05, 2014, 04:29:58 am
Cut all American forces by two thirds. Those need to stay at home to prevent South America moving in.
Some of the South America militaries are nice nice and well but how would they even get to the USA?

I would start with an army of bulldozers, and fill in a few miles of Panama canal.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on August 05, 2014, 04:32:33 am
You think South America will commit economic suicide just to attack the US?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 05, 2014, 04:35:30 am
China could still reach their west coast just fine.  :D
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: GavJ on August 05, 2014, 04:36:24 am
Quote
That's an advantage I should add to the Europeans, the American's bad geography :P
There are a lot of mountains in Europe, really only the southern English, northern French, Belgium, Dutch and northern German countryside are that flat.
Right, exactly - their entire economic core is on conveniently landable gently sloping beaches facing the US.

Not exactly a lot of big factories in the alps, last I checked.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordBucket on August 05, 2014, 04:38:08 am
Simply give the order to attack (http://www.letsgo-europe.com/Germany/military/installations.html)
There's only over 65,000 Murrican troops in Europe, not nearly enough. Even in Germany they'd be outnumbered nearly 9 to 1, and that's where a third of them are stationed.

Few of those are infantry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Air_Forces_in_Europe

A US first strike would be able to do devastating amounts of damage. It is, for example, 72 miles from Fairford (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Fairford) to London. That's 8 minutes for B-2 bomber (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-2_Spirit#Specifications_.28B-2A_Block_30.29) at nominal cruising speed.

And when you do get around to trying to repel them, remember that you're defend against...not an outside invading force, but rather an enemy that is heavily entrenched with roughly 100 established, fortified military installations inside your countr(ies). Many of which are over 60 years old, and supplied with years worth of food and fuel. Worse, many of those installations are used by militaries from both sides.

For example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Royal_Air_Force_stations

"Royal Airforce" as in British military. From that link:

RAF Stations occupied by the United States Air Force
 * RAF Alconbury   Cambridgeshire   Occupied by the United States Air Force as an accommodation unit for personnel at RAF Molesworth.
 * RAF Barford St John   Oxfordshire   Occupied by the United States Air Force as a communications station.
 * RAF Croughton   Northamptonshire   Occupied by the United States Air Force as a communications station.
 * RAF Fairford   Gloucestershire   Occupied by the United States Air Force.
 * RAF Feltwell   Norfolk   United States Air Force support use.
 * RAF Lakenheath   Suffolk   Occupied by the United States Air Force.
 * RAF Menwith Hill   North Yorkshire   joint UK/US intelligence and communication site.
 * RAF Mildenhall   Suffolk   Occupied by the United States Air Force.
 * RAF Molesworth   Cambridgeshire   Occupied by the United States Air Force.
 * RAF Welford   Berkshire   Occupied by the United States Air Force.

The enemy already occupies a large potion of your own military bases inside your own country. Do you bomb your own installations? Meanwhile, as you deal with the enemy within, your opponent himself is ~3600 miles away across an ocean. And no doubt bringing in reinforcements while you deal with the internal situation. A US fleet approaches from the west. Do you engage to attempt to stop them from landing, or do you deal with the 100-some bases that have already "landed?"

Tactically, logistically...the US has a crazy huge advantage out the gate.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on August 05, 2014, 04:39:14 am
posting to watch
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 05, 2014, 04:42:29 am
Right, exactly - their entire economic core is on conveniently landable gently sloping beaches facing the US.

Indeed, we poor Dutch would be so screwed. Major port at Rotterdam, major NATO airfield at Eindhoven, within 2 hours driving from a nice sandy beach.
They'd have to attack in winter though, cause when it's nice weather, our coastline is protected by hordes of Germans dug in at the coast. Fear their mighty sandcastles!  ;D

We would have quite a few nukes though, following the thread assumption that we confiscated those. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkel_Air_Base
It's pretty funny. Dutch government always kept denying the base held nukes, until very recently a former prime minister had a slip of tongue in an interview.
 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 05, 2014, 05:05:01 am
The way the balance of forces stands, the only sensible way the conflict would unfold to me is the EU turtling up, forcing the US to expend huge numbers of men and materiel (all of which are at the end of a pretty long supply line compared to the EU forces, fighting on home turf) for every metre of territory, falling back to any number of natural defensible lines along any number of rivers or mountain ranges, regardless of if the US landed in Spain, France, the Med or further North, looking to forcing the US to fight from carrier groups and whatever territory it can somehow hold - I could see the UK being a focus for any US effort in that regard. Let us not forget that it took the largest military operation ever that was years in the planning in the shape of D-Day for the combined might of the Allies to begin to displace the outnumbered, out-gunned Germans who were pretty much fighting on their own when the Allied forces already had clear air and naval superiority and their enemy was fighting a losing battle on a number of other major fronts, and it took months to push the Germans slowly and steadily back. I could not see the US being able to fight any kind of successful campaign of this magnitude on its own against an enemy who could fight from a position of overall near-parity. Also, look at how much of a cluster fuck the occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq were? Could you honestly see a US occupation of the UK being anything other than a horrible fucking bloodbath? As for the EU invading the US.... nah, the logistical nightmare of different nation states, different equipment, languages, combat protocols and so on make that an impossibility when stacked up against the geography of the US and its unity, unless somehow we got Russia, Canada and Mexico on side, or maybe China (not that China would touch such a conflict with a ten foot automatic electrified touching pole).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: GavJ on August 05, 2014, 05:32:56 am
Thread doesnt really fully make sense without objectives. You can't just be abstractly "at war." What for? You need to know because what is winning?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on August 05, 2014, 05:33:48 am
There is one more point in th U.S. favor that is not being accounted for here.  Even with a very rough parity of forces, the U.S. simply has the capacity to outproduce almost every other nation on Earth.  While many of our factories are currently mothballed, an all out war with the EU would push us onto full wartime footing, and historicly that does not go well for anyone.  We're also sitting on what is probably the single largest aggregate of material resources on the planet.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 05, 2014, 05:39:44 am
Thread doesnt really fully make sense without objectives. You can't just be abstractly "at war." What for? You need to know because what is winning?

Since when did wars start needing reason?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: GavJ on August 05, 2014, 05:46:42 am
...? Since always?

If there is no reason, then the answer is simple: EU and America both win, by just doing nothing.  ::)

The outcome of the war depends heavily on the necessary objective: occupation? complete destruction (and of civilians? For example, both of them get some idea in their heads of a race war)? Merely stopping the other side from doing something unacceptable, such as proliferating some new weapon, or doing something that endangers life? Control of some vital new resource that new technology has just uncovered? Etc.  All very very different strategies to fight those different wars.

The E.U. "Turtling" for example is stupid if it's the U.S. that needs to be stopped from doing something, because they'd just ignore you if you turtled and go on and do that thing and you auto-lose...

Whereas if it's a new resource in Europe, then doing anything but turtling is probably absurd.

etc. etc.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 05, 2014, 06:59:24 am
Conditional curbstomp of Europe in almost any case that doesn't use some weird restriction. The United States military apparatus is the only country left that does shit like force projection or heavy scale combat. The really scary thought is how much that's fallen off. America's a brigade (and common times battalion even) based Army now instead of one that fields Divisions and Corps.


Also, the idea that the Abrams is outclassed and outclasses evenly amongst European main battle tanks is more than a little ridiculous.


 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 05, 2014, 07:08:20 am
Also, the idea that the Abrams is outclassed and outclasses evenly amongst European main battle tanks is more than a little ridiculous.

This I would agree with. The Challenger 2, Leopard 2 and T-90 come close (as does possibly the Le Clerk at a push) or outperform in specific ways but the Abrams is a better overall package, despite some misplaced concerns over the nature of its engine.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 05, 2014, 07:16:50 am
It's a more finicky engine than the others in some respects, but it also greatly outperforms. The finickiness is compensated by the fact that the US is more than happy just to swap the damn thing out if it gets to be a problem (assuming wartime conditions, here).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on August 05, 2014, 10:27:22 am
America has never been cost efficient and its power never came for the military : it's the other way around, america have a huge army becaause of its huge economy and scientific dominance. On the field, the Americain army don't perform that well for its price, and is rarely used efficiently (see war in Iraq, War in afganistan, Vietnam,....). On the other hand, European power tend to use their armies more efficiently and more cost effectively.

That being said, European command isn't unified, our force projection capacities are not enough to launch an invasion and we have no military bases in the united states while they have a lot of them in Europe. Intelligence wise, all of our communication are intercepted by the US and much of our hardware rely on Americain tech. Politically, our administration are infiltrated by americain intelligence and Americain agencies are known to operate on our soil.

I don't think we could mount an attack of the US without them knowing. So the US will have the initiative, and will be able to launch an attack from its base in Europe. The war would be over in a few hours.

I expect them to fail the occupation though, and to ruin themselves trying to control a rapidely crumbling Europe.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on August 05, 2014, 10:46:15 am
Thread doesnt really fully make sense without objectives. You can't just be abstractly "at war." What for? You need to know because what is winning?

Since when did wars start needing reason?

Aye, last night it occurred to me that if the US and EU started to fight without a proper falling out a new age of . .  . Dark Ages would fall upon humanity.  Without the 'peacekeepers' of the world, every despot would logically make gains.  Look at Russia, not even waiting!

So imagine every ambitious ruler with a dispute attacking their neighbor as the big brothers of the world are infighting.

Also yep, I have my doubts about Russia and China staying neutral in a US/EU war.  I think its the potential for gang ups that keep peace more than any real peacekeeping effort.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sensei on August 05, 2014, 11:35:11 am
If we want the perfect theatre for an armchair war, which will force either side to pit their forces against eachother in large battles on their own ground (very unlikely in the modern world) we should simply assume that each side's goal is the capture the other's Flag, which is in a well defended but known location of each faction's choosing.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Flying Dice on August 05, 2014, 11:40:22 am
America has never been cost efficient and its power never came for the military : it's the other way around, america have a huge army becaause of its huge economy and scientific dominance. On the field, the Americain army don't perform that well for its price, and is rarely used efficiently (see war in Iraq, War in afganistan, Vietnam,....). On the other hand, European power tend to use their armies more efficiently and more cost effectively.
[citation needed]

The U.S. had trouble in Vietnam (and in Afghanistan as well as Gulf War Two: Electric Boogaloo) for an obvious reason: we were trying to fight asymmetric conflicts against what were functionally loosely organized militias capable of striking, dropping their weapons, and blending with civilian populations... with a military designed to take on the Soviets in a straight war. Note that the exact same thing happened to European states in the same situations (in the same places, even); the French were chased out of Vietnam and ex-Soviet soldiers could have given a word of advice or three to the U.S. about the sort of quagmire that Afghanistan turns in to when you try to occupy it. It's been more than a decade and only now are we starting to see noticeable changes targeted directly at fighting that sort of conflict.

The plain truth is that U.S. military force is still largely oriented around a type of war that really isn't fought any more -- large, powerful states don't war amongst themselves in this era. That said, that's also why the U.S. could utterly curbstomp just about any other state or group of states (barring something like U.S. vs. the world), because apart from China (whose arms are vastly out of date) nobody else bothers trying to field large militaries, not least because most of the other states which potentially could no longer have colonies to hold, and prefer to use their income for other things, especially given that many of them are in NATO and as such would reasonably expect U.S. support if for some reason they did need a big, stompy military machine for a few months.

--

Now, another question: What would the outcome have been if the Cold War had never existed, because the East-West conflict went hot as soon as Berlin fell?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on August 05, 2014, 11:43:16 am
US would have won in that case.

But, I have more doubts about their win the longer the cold war did go on.  I think that had we fought at or around the Korean War we would have been in much less of a position to win.

---US soldiers were better Equipped, better fed, treated better with better technology.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 05, 2014, 12:31:02 pm
In the case of a US invasion of the EU, I don't think the EU would play into the US hands of large set piece battles though - it would be a lot of hit and runs, constantly falling back, and high mobility/small scale actions (what with that being the focus of so many modern armed forces in the EU - flexibility over single specific mission effectiveness), aided by the total lack of any kind of supply lines. Of course the US would look to cause large scale engagements for the high force kerbstomp mentioned by Strife earlier, but I don't see either side playing to the others strengths.

If the Red army and the Allies kept on fighting after the fall of Berlin, I would have expected initial gains on the ground by the Soviets, possibly due to sheer weight of numbers alone before Allied air (mass bombing on Soviet cities, and fighter cover) and naval superiority (bottling the Soviets up in the Baltic or black sea, and playing hell with coastal cities) would have stopped and reversed that. I do think however that the Allies would have never made a land assault on Russia itself having learnt from Hitler's mistake, and instead have been content with pushing the soviets back to their own border, or possibly looking to force a regime change, which would have been more than enough of a victory for the US and UK.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 05, 2014, 12:42:53 pm
The U.S. had trouble in Vietnam (and in Afghanistan as well as Gulf War Two: Electric Boogaloo) for an obvious reason: we were trying to fight asymmetric conflicts against what were functionally loosely organized militias capable of striking, dropping their weapons, and blending with civilian populations... with a military designed to take on the Soviets in a straight war.

Honestly it's somewhat amazing how well the occupation of Iraq was handled given the impossible task requested by civilian leadership.  For a military to be asked to do a building by building clearance of a major city and walk out with only hundreds of casualties is actually pretty damn impressive.

Europe invading the US in the absence of a navy is pretty simple.  Just send the troops across the Canadian border to seize the adjacent states.  Don't even need to hold the territory, once the damage is done, Euro has won.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: gigaraptor487 on August 05, 2014, 01:03:28 pm
this needs to be a forum game.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 05, 2014, 01:45:45 pm
I find myself thinking that one of the reasons why the US as an entity seems to be less averse to wars, and the maintenance of the ability to fight large wars when compared to the mindset of generally conflict averse EU nations, is that wars it has been involved in in a truly modern sense of the word (lets say post WW1 for sake of argument) have been wars at a distance fought on territory far from home. As a result, in its shortish history as a nation born of a liberation conflict now romanticised in its collective memory when compared with the nations of the EU and their shared history of trying to annihilate each other for reasons that probably made sense at the time, there are no examples of what it is like to be an entire nation truly under siege or occupied by a hostile force and no cultural memory of how civilians in a war can suffer en mass. There are no real US equivalent of the cultural memes spawned by things like the Blitz, the French resistance, Hiroshima/Nagasaki, and several other notable examples I have neglected to include for sake of brevity. The only example I can think of involving the US is the Lusitania incident - horrible though is was, it pales when compared to instances like the bombing of Dresden. Wars happen elsewhere, to other people, not on the doorstep to the place you call home.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordBucket on August 05, 2014, 02:13:56 pm
Which explains why so many americans were so completely shocked and horrified at the comparatively few deaths in September 2001.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 05, 2014, 02:20:25 pm
Which explains why so many americans were so completely shocked and horrified at the comparatively few deaths in September 2001.

I think this could be spot on. A truly horrible "one time" act of terror like that must have been a bolt out of the blue to a nation not really used to dealing with conflicts involving nation states on its own soil. I know that the July 7th bombings in London do not compare in scale, but the day after them, people in London were deliberately getting on trains and buses just to show that they could and would carry on as normal. I am not sure this would have happened many other places in the world.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordBucket on August 05, 2014, 02:25:43 pm
Quote
a nation not really used to dealing with conflict

I recall a conversation once with an american who described the 9-11 attacks as "the worst civilian death toll from any single event in the history of the world."

They were serious.



Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on August 05, 2014, 02:27:02 pm
Quote
a nation not really used to dealing with conflict

I recall a conversation once with an american who described the 9-11 attacks as "the worst civilian death toll from any single event in the history of the world."

They were serious.



Most American can't pass their own immigration naturalization test.
http://www.uscis.gov/us-citizenship/naturalization-test
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Neonivek on August 05, 2014, 02:28:58 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Alev on August 05, 2014, 02:39:05 pm
Ptw
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on August 05, 2014, 02:44:58 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
If I remember right, there were a little under 2.5 million dead on the other side, over half of which were not militant.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on August 05, 2014, 03:31:48 pm

The U.S. had trouble in Vietnam (and in Afghanistan as well as Gulf War Two: Electric Boogaloo) for an obvious reason: we were trying to fight asymmetric conflicts against what were functionally loosely organized militias capable of striking, dropping their weapons, and blending with civilian populations... with a military designed to take on the Soviets in a straight war. Note that the exact same thing happened to European states in the same situations (in the same places, even); the French were chased out of Vietnam and ex-Soviet soldiers could have given a word of advice or three to the U.S. about the sort of quagmire that Afghanistan turns in to when you try to occupy it. It's been more than a decade and only now are we starting to see noticeable changes targeted directly at fighting that sort of conflict.


So yeah, the US army lack versatility and suffer from an unrealistic management. Add to that that Americains tend not to understand what war is and seems to take it for a glorified police operation.

The plain truth is that U.S. military force is still largely oriented around a type of war that really isn't fought any more -- large, powerful states don't war amongst themselves in this era. That said, that's also why the U.S. could utterly curbstomp just about any other state or group of states (barring something like U.S. vs. the world), because apart from China (whose arms are vastly out of date) nobody else bothers trying to field large militaries, not least because most of the other states which potentially could no longer have colonies to hold, and prefer to use their income for other things, especially given that many of them are in NATO and as such would reasonably expect U.S. support if for some reason they did need a big, stompy military machine for a few months.

I don't agree : large state don't go to war because of M.A.D. and Putin is challenging even that. You say that the US could destroy any conventional army in an all out war, but I disagree. Or at least, I don't agree with your reasons. The US could destroy any country's military because of his allies : it have military bases all over the world and can make supply line to anywhere. If it had to rely on Aircraft carriers, it would lose : they would not be safe at all.

I think it is very worrying that Americains seems to think that their military is their strong point. It's not. America is pretty bad, it even was in WW2 : it had trouble with Japan, a tiny mountainous island. And against germany, they had about the same casualites as the German despite outnumbering them 5 to one, indigenous support, total air superiority, and the fact that the best German units where on the eastern front.


Now, another question: What would the outcome have been if the Cold War had never existed, because the East-West conflict went hot as soon as Berlin fell?

Stalin had one million men on the Americains, and didn't have to cross the atlantic to approvision his troops. Most of the resistance movements were communists and would have sided with him. On the other hand, the allied were planning to use German troops againt the Red army, and they would have been defending Germany. I'd say that Russia would still win, quite easily. I don't think that the US army would have been able to whistand the brutality of the Red Army. They were almost overwhelmed by the Ardenne offensive which is the only time the US faced thee "good" german units.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 05, 2014, 03:38:25 pm

The U.S. had trouble in Vietnam (and in Afghanistan as well as Gulf War Two: Electric Boogaloo) for an obvious reason: we were trying to fight asymmetric conflicts against what were functionally loosely organized militias capable of striking, dropping their weapons, and blending with civilian populations... with a military designed to take on the Soviets in a straight war. Note that the exact same thing happened to European states in the same situations (in the same places, even); the French were chased out of Vietnam and ex-Soviet soldiers could have given a word of advice or three to the U.S. about the sort of quagmire that Afghanistan turns in to when you try to occupy it. It's been more than a decade and only now are we starting to see noticeable changes targeted directly at fighting that sort of conflict.


So yeah, the US army lack versatility and suffer from an unrealistic management. Add to that that Americains tend not to understand what war is and seems to take it for a glorified police operation.

The plain truth is that U.S. military force is still largely oriented around a type of war that really isn't fought any more -- large, powerful states don't war amongst themselves in this era. That said, that's also why the U.S. could utterly curbstomp just about any other state or group of states (barring something like U.S. vs. the world), because apart from China (whose arms are vastly out of date) nobody else bothers trying to field large militaries, not least because most of the other states which potentially could no longer have colonies to hold, and prefer to use their income for other things, especially given that many of them are in NATO and as such would reasonably expect U.S. support if for some reason they did need a big, stompy military machine for a few months.

I don't agree : large state don't go to war because of M.A.D. and Putin is challenging even that. You say that the US could destroy any conventional army in an all out war, but I disagree. Or at least, I don't agree with your reasons. The US could destroy any country's military because of his allies : it have military bases all over the world and can make supply line to anywhere. If it had to rely on Aircraft carriers, it would lose : they would not be safe at all.

I think it is very worrying that Americains seems to think that their military is their strong point. It's not. America is pretty bad, it even was in WW2 : it had trouble with Japan, a tiny mountainous island. And against germany, they had about the same casualites as the German despite outnumbering them 5 to one, indigenous support, total air superiority, and the fact that the best German units where on the eastern front.


Now, another question: What would the outcome have been if the Cold War had never existed, because the East-West conflict went hot as soon as Berlin fell?

Stalin had one million men on the Americains, and didn't have to cross the atlantic to approvision his troops. Most of the resistance movements were communists and would have sided with him. On the other hand, the allied were planning to use German troops againt the Red army, and they would have been defending Germany. I'd say that Russia would still win, quite easily. I don't think that the US army would have been able to whistand the brutality of the Red Army. They were almost overwhelmed by the Ardenne offensive which is the only time the US faced thee "good" german units.
Wait, what?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on August 05, 2014, 03:47:02 pm
At the end of the war Stalin had 6400 000 men on the eastern front while the allies had 5 400 000 on the western one. (source wikipedia).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 05, 2014, 04:52:09 pm
They were almost overwhelmed by the Ardenne offensive which is the only time the US faced thee "good" german units.

The Germans advancing for two days against about 5% of allied forces in theatre is "almost overwhelmed"?

The Germans limped away from the battle of the Bulge having taken equal casualties and having nothing left.  They had put everything into the attack and the result was a two day reversal in a small part of the front.  People overstated it because history is boring if you just talk about the superior force inevitably grinding down the inferior one.

If the Cold war had gone hot right off the top then Soviet 50% edge in ground forces would have helped them defend but complete and utter western air superiority would have greatly limited Soviet ability to attack.  If the Soviets can't overwhelm France then they are left in the awkward position of having already exhausted their manpower reserved before the fight started and now fighting enemies who have three times their population and like five times their industrial potential.  Remember the US started reducing the number of tanks they made voluntarily in WWII, if they were going full out in WWIII expect to see numbers of like 50k a year.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 05, 2014, 05:01:23 pm
Now, another question: What would the outcome have been if the Cold War had never existed, because the East-West conflict went hot as soon as Berlin fell?
Nukes: Nukes everywhere. If the Rosenberg spy ring is still successful then nukes for everyone, if not then nukes for communists. Russia would be hurt after having been hurt.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on August 05, 2014, 05:04:01 pm
had war broken between west and east right after WW2... wouldn't US have used nuclear bombs? at the time they weren't such an huge taboo yet and there was no MAD to worry about.

Nowhere as devastating as a full nuclear war at the height of cold war could be,but it would still be a big advantage for a semi conventional war in 1945. In morale, if nothing else.

pre-post-edit: ninja!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: USEC_OFFICER on August 05, 2014, 05:12:51 pm
The problem with using nuclear bombs to gank the Soviets is production. The Americans more or less used their entire nuclear arsenal on Japan, with a single bomb ready in the reserves. At most. And that's after several months of Uranium refinement. Admittedly I have no idea how many bombs were still under construction when WWII ended, or the projected rates of production assuming that WWII continued against the Soviets, but I think it's a safe bet that the Allies wouldn't have been wiping out the Russians with nuclear hellfires anytime soon. But on the other hand, strategic deployment of nuclear bombs to eliminate Russian production centers should tip the advantage towards the Allies. So... sucks to be the Russians?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 05, 2014, 05:23:52 pm
I think it's a safe bet that the Allies wouldn't have been wiping out the Russians with nuclear hellfires anytime soon.
If the Rosenbergs give the Soviet Union nuclear secrets, the USA has 7 years to nuke the USSR into oblivion. If they fail, the USA has at most 20 years to nuke the USSR into oblivion.
They'd manage.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: USEC_OFFICER on August 05, 2014, 05:28:45 pm
Well, I'm saying that the Soviets won't be completely annihilated by nuclear bombs. Yes, they'll be a factor, but the war isn't going to drag on long enough for more than a handful of bombs to be used. Unless the Soviets push the Allies out of Europe, of course. Then who knows.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: stabbymcstabstab on August 05, 2014, 05:41:24 pm
But if Moscow and every major city is a crater you don't really need to completely kill everything.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 05, 2014, 05:51:02 pm
Meh, what would have been the point of nuking somewhere like Stalingrad anyway?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 05, 2014, 06:27:03 pm
PTW
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Fniff on August 05, 2014, 07:20:48 pm
Here's an old, old question from an emotion thread: if a a second civil war was started in America/Britain, what resources and circumstances would be needed for the rebels to overthrow the government?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 05, 2014, 07:48:53 pm
The problem with using nuclear bombs to gank the Soviets is production. The Americans more or less used their entire nuclear arsenal on Japan, with a single bomb ready in the reserves. At most. And that's after several months of Uranium refinement. Admittedly I have no idea how many bombs were still under construction when WWII ended, or the projected rates of production assuming that WWII continued against the Soviets, but I think it's a safe bet that the Allies wouldn't have been wiping out the Russians with nuclear hellfires anytime soon. But on the other hand, strategic deployment of nuclear bombs to eliminate Russian production centers should tip the advantage towards the Allies. So... sucks to be the Russians?
In 1945, six warheads were available by the end of the year.  1946, that goes up to 11, then 32 in 1947, and by the end of 1948, it skyrockets to 110 [Ref (http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datab9.asp)], most of which were Mark 3 "Fat Men" implosion weapons.  In other words, that's Moscow, Stalingrad, Leningrad, Vladivostok, Sevastopol, and oh, let's say Baku hammered in an instant.  That said, it's not the end of the world.  These were the little suckers used on Nagasaki, not what we of the 21st century usually think of when we hear "nuke".  The first proper post-war bomb, the Mark 4 (a comprehensive rationalization and simplification of the Mark 3), didn't enter production until 1949, and the first major expansion of explosive yield wouldn't come until the 1952 Mark 5.  You can expect a massive expansion in the Mark 4 program under ongoing wartime pressures, but I'd expect that to actually take resources from the Mark 5 and Snark (the first American ICBM) projects as well. 

The real threat to the Soviets in the near term would be a massive step-up of a conventional bombing program, not the nuclear arsenal - in other words, the part of the aerial campaign that contributed to bringing Germany and Japan to their knees.  The Soviets in 1945 are at the very end of their logistics tether, and this is not helped by the fact that their logistics are in large part hugely reliant on Allied Lend-Lease shipments of trucks.  A war with the Soviets will stretch from Berlin to Iran (which at this point is still effectively partitioned between the Soviets and Britain due to Operation Countenance) to China and Korea.  Bombers operating out of the Middle East can immediately strike at Soviet oil refineries at Baku, and other trans-Ural industries are also at risk.  The issue is actually if the Allied powers can actually finish the job.  Their logistics aren't that much better, and they also have to deal with domestic issues as well.  The war was supposed to be over by this point; continuing it by backstabbing a fellow ally is not going to be a pleasant task, nor a popular one.  They'll have to fight all the way from Germany to the Urals against not the disorganized and micromanaged-to-oblivion Red Army of 1941, but the hardened and experienced fighting force that is the Red Army of 1945. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 05, 2014, 08:19:09 pm
Here's an old, old question from an emotion thread: if a a second civil war was started in America/Britain, what resources and circumstances would be needed for the rebels to overthrow the government?

Defection of the army.  Next!

They'll have to fight all the way from Germany to the Urals against not the disorganized and micromanaged-to-oblivion Red Army of 1941, but the hardened and experienced fighting force that is the Red Army of 1945. 

The west doesn't need to push to win though.  The west can win a war of attrition and can win a stalemate.  In an attrition circumstance, the Russian manpower is already exhausted while the Americans+British+French have most of their young men still alive.  The Russians have another 2 million or so men coming of age annually (idk the real figure, just a guess), the six million already under arms and whatever they can raise from their new empire.  They had more men but the war hurt the Russians badly.  The west has more men coming of age each year, plus huge numbers of undrafted men and could probably get quite a few Germans on their side too.  Attrition is bad for the Soviets, they would need to win the war before those numbers tells.

Stalemate is even worse for the Russians though because the airwar is ridiculously stacked against them.  The west would have like a 3-4 numerical advantage in fighters and the fighters would be of greater quality.  When the allies finally broke the German airforce the results were very bad for German industry and logistics, we just dont appreciate how bad because the war ended so soon after.  The Russian army was brilliantly organized for deep penetration operations but those operations require having trucks and tanks in working order, not logistically trapped.

So the Soviets need to attack or they lose.  If they could somehow take all of France they could maybe figure something out but it would be dicey.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 05, 2014, 08:34:20 pm
Okay, another question: If the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil War, would Spain have joined WWII on the allies' side? If yes, what are the implications of such a change?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 05, 2014, 08:43:21 pm
Depends. In this scenario, which faction of the Republicans held the majority share of power after victory? The anarchists and socialists or the communists? If the former, I feel like it would have gone the same way with a neutral Spain. If the latter, I think they would have remained neutral until the Soviets joined in the war. Either that or stayed neutral for the whole thing as well.

Spain really didn't want to get involved in that war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 05, 2014, 09:26:43 pm
Okay, another question: If the Republicans had won the Spanish Civil War, would Spain have joined WWII on the allies' side? If yes, what are the implications of such a change?

If the SCW had taken three years to drag on as historically, no chance in hell.  Spain was way too exhausted to join the war on either side and would be justifiably pissed with the British for hamstringing them.  Expect a decent number of volunteers but no DOW.

I could see Hitler being stupid enough to invade Spain.  The Germans would win of course but their victory would get them very little.  They would take Gibralter, thus denying the allies a convoy route that was already all but shutdown by Italy.  In exchange they would get a huge new shoreline to garrison, costing them another half million troops if not twice that.  Best case scenario for the Russians is Barbarossa gets pushed back until the next spring and Russia ends up in a much stronger position.  The balance of power would be hard to predict with Russia being stronger but no Great Patriotic War to influence the Soviet mindset.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 05, 2014, 10:06:56 pm
The west doesn't need to push to win though.  The west can win a war of attrition and can win a stalemate.  In an attrition circumstance, the Russian manpower is already exhausted while the Americans+British+French have most of their young men still alive.  The Russians have another 2 million or so men coming of age annually (idk the real figure, just a guess), the six million already under arms and whatever they can raise from their new empire.  They had more men but the war hurt the Russians badly.  The west has more men coming of age each year, plus huge numbers of undrafted men and could probably get quite a few Germans on their side too.  Attrition is bad for the Soviets, they would need to win the war before those numbers tells.

Stalemate is even worse for the Russians though because the airwar is ridiculously stacked against them.  The west would have like a 3-4 numerical advantage in fighters and the fighters would be of greater quality.  When the allies finally broke the German airforce the results were very bad for German industry and logistics, we just dont appreciate how bad because the war ended so soon after.  The Russian army was brilliantly organized for deep penetration operations but those operations require having trucks and tanks in working order, not logistically trapped.

So the Soviets need to attack or they lose.  If they could somehow take all of France they could maybe figure something out but it would be dicey.
If it's a stalemate going into the 50s, both sides lose as the war goes nuclear.  The Soviets cannot attack due to their logistics situation, but the Allies, if they make the Soviets an open enemy, absolutely cannot afford to let the Soviet Union survive in any form.  If you thought the German Dolchstoss legend was bad, create a Soviet stab-in-the-back that's rooted in facts and open war, and one with a soon-to-be-nuclear power that knows for an absolute truth that the West will betray them at the drop of a hat and must be destroyed first before it destroys them.  If the Allies invade, they will need to occupy Russia to win, utterly eradicating everything about the Soviet system root and branch to inculcate an entirely new psychology in the people to make them think that the Soviet system that brought them to Berlin was fundamentally wrong and that the Western system that stole their victory away fundamentally right, because anything less is a loss for both sides.  Even such an Allied victory (and we'll assume it happens, even though there's a very real chance it won't) will be costly, leaving aside the war itself; it will necessitate de-Nazification on a continental scale.   If the Soviet Union or some theoretical Russian successor state following a Soviet defeat goes the way of interwar Germany, it's going to be a World War Three between nuclear powers.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 05, 2014, 10:34:55 pm
A stalemate isn't going to last four years in the face of complete air superiority.  Either the Soviets push the western powers off the mainland or they wont be able to operate frontline armies.  A tie is a loss for them.

I am confused as to why the West needs to fully occupy Russia to secure victory.  Once the border is at Finland, Poland and either Romania or Ukraine they have achieved all their objectives.  Sure the Soviet union would lick it's wounds but it would be doing so as a far, far weaker power.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 05, 2014, 10:44:09 pm
The USSR survived a hell of a lot of time being underneath Nazi air superiority. Planes don't win wars, and the Ruskie had a pretty big advantage on the ground, with the t34 being a great tank, the logistics in place well able to create them, and having a 3 to 1 advantage over the Western Allies. Planes and Nukes aren't enough to make up that difference, especially when the West would be politically fractured.

Of of the Wikipedia page for Operation Unthinkable

Quote
The plan was taken by the British Chiefs of Staff Committee as militarily unfeasible due to a three-to-one superiority of Soviet land forces in Europe and the Middle East, where the conflict was projected to take place. The majority of any offensive operation would have been undertaken by American and British forces, as well as Polish forces and up to 100,000 German Wehrmacht soldiers. Any quick success would be due to surprise alone. If a quick success could not be obtained before the onset of winter, the assessment was that the Allies would be committed to a protracted total war. In the report of 22 May 1945, an offensive operation was deemed "hazardous".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 05, 2014, 11:20:32 pm
The USSR survived a hell of a lot of time being underneath Nazi air superiority. Planes don't win wars, and the Ruskie had a pretty big advantage on the ground, with the t34 being a great tank, the logistics in place well able to create them, and having a 3 to 1 advantage over the Western Allies. Planes and Nukes aren't enough to make up that difference, especially when the West would be politically fractured.

The german bombing of the Soviet Union was peanuts compared to what the western powers could bring to bear.  For one thing there is the part of having several times as many planes, Germany produced less then 10k long range bombers (so not Junkers) while the US alone produced 50k medium and heavy bombers.  For another there's not having a second front, from 1943 onward 80% of German planes were sent west.

It's true that planes didn't win WWII on their own but that's because the war ended just when they started ramping up the pain.  It took the allies until late 1944 to break the German airforce but the effect was pretty harsh, just overlooked among the collapse of the German land forces.  In WWIII it doesn't take the allies three years to ramp up because they have a bigger airforce then they had in WWII from day 1 and have already developed all the doctorines and equipment.

Operation Unthinkable was judging the viability of a short offensive campaign in Poland, not a war as a whole.

The T-34 was a decent tank but it wasn't the godmachine that it's sometimes made out to be.  When M4(76) Shermans fought T-34(85) in later conflicts the T-34s made a pretty poor showing.  And while the Soviets had more T-34s immediately in theatre, that simply reflected deployments, it was the western powers who had the most tanks worldwide.

After '46 the Soviets proceeded to close the economic gap and increase the land forces disparity for a couple decades.  In the 70s the legendary hordes or Russian tanks ready to sweep out over western Europe were real.  Not so much in 1946.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: EnigmaticHat on August 06, 2014, 02:06:37 am
Good to see the US is succeeding in its continuing quest to be able to fight the entire rest of the world at the same time.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on August 06, 2014, 06:20:30 am
I really don't see how air superiority would help : the allies would stand no chance on the ground, fielding bad ttanks like the sherman against soviet IS, and having to stretch their supply lines across the atlantic. Worst, communism was popular in all allied countries, and the sovietic would have had extensive help from resistance network. Bombing Russia would be impossible because there is was no ground base to bob it from, and Stalin would havee had the western European population to make new soldiers.

In my opinion, the best proof that my reasoning is correct is that the west surrendered half of Europe to appease Stalin. They knew that a war against the USSR would have been incredibly risky.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 06, 2014, 07:01:15 am
I propose a kickstarter campaign to buy Netherlands a tank.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 06, 2014, 07:11:11 am
I propose a kickstarter campaign to buy Netherlands a tank.

I don't think our groundforces can spare the manpower to crew it.
IMO strategically the best thing the Netherlands could do is focus on drones. Small country, small planes. Make use of all those unemployed people that have trained their piloting skills online, gaming. Just make them believe it's a new free to play, they won't even know they're killing people.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 07:50:34 am
I really don't see how air superiority would help : the allies would stand no chance on the ground, fielding bad ttanks like the sherman against soviet IS,

Lol yeah because heavy tanks were so important in the course of a world war.

Oh god, what have you turned me into?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on August 06, 2014, 08:32:45 am
Quote
Lol yeah because heavy tanks were so important in the course of a world war.

Well, in world war 2 you may have heard of blitzkrieg. It had some success.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 06, 2014, 08:47:20 am
Quote
Lol yeah because heavy tanks were so important in the course of a world war.

Well, in world war 2 you may have heard of blitzkrieg. It had some success.

The Pershing, just at the point of being deployed when the war ended would have been more than a equal, especially with its teething problems dealt with on a combat basis instead of a piecetime replacement one.


And besides, the M26 is one of the sexiest looking tanks around.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 09:30:45 am
I thought USSR actually had decent anti-air forces, including air superiority fighters, at the end of WW2? If so, then how will the allies manage to sneak in a nuke into Moscow, or other production centers? The only reason why Allies were able to nuke Japan with 1 bomber at a time is because the Japan at that moment lacked any anti-air capability.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 09:32:12 am
Quote
Lol yeah because heavy tanks were so important in the course of a world war.

Well, in world war 2 you may have heard of blitzkrieg. It had some success.

Blitzkreig with heavy tanks?  Tell me more.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 09:40:47 am
Quote
Lol yeah because heavy tanks were so important in the course of a world war.

Well, in world war 2 you may have heard of blitzkrieg. It had some success.
Fun fact: the most used tank in Blitzkrieg was Panzer II, which was armed with 20mm main turret and one 7.92mm machine-gun. Also ~30mm of armor. Yeah.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Mech#4 on August 06, 2014, 09:46:53 am
Wouldn't that be because the main role of a tank is infantry support rather than other shooting other tanks. They're not really designed to go head to head with other tanks, rather they break enemy infantry. Tank destroyers are for VS other tanks, and even than at long range. The armours more a "In case you get hit you might not die" rather than "tank all the shells.".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 09:58:35 am
Wouldn't that be because the main role of a tank is infantry support rather than other shooting other tanks. They're not really designed to go head to head with other tanks, rather they break enemy infantry. Tank destroyers are for VS other tanks, and even than at long range. The armours more a "In case you get hit you might not die" rather than "tank all the shells.".

Well the US had that theory but decided around 1943 that tank destroyers ended up getting used a lot like tanks were.  They used the M4 chasis, just had a different gun and no top on the turret.  The result of this change was they put a 76mm in the standard M4; this was an updated version of the 3 inch that they had been using in the M10 (their main tank destroyer) and phased out M10 and M18 production, although they did do a limited run of a tank destroyer with a 90mm.

The big threat to tanks in the west on both sides was stationary AT guns (except the Panther, about half of which were lost to breakdowns).  Other AFVs were a secondary threat, about equal to landmines and infantry weapons.  Planes, interestingly were pretty low on the list even for Germans operating in the face of overwhelming allied air superiority.

A big problem with armor is that tank crews generally bailed after the first hit by any big gun, even if they weren't in that much danger.  They didn't know if they were getting hit by a 75mm at 700 yards or a 90mm at 300 yards.  German crews seemed a bit less inclined to bail, possibly due to difficulty, allies tended to lose about 1 man killed for every four tanks "lost" (destroyed or abandoned or later recovered) while with Germans it was like 3 to 4 but that still indicates that a member of a 4 man crew would probably survive a tank loss.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 06, 2014, 10:06:13 am
I am confused as to why the West needs to fully occupy Russia to secure victory.  Once the border is at Finland, Poland and either Romania or Ukraine they have achieved all their objectives.  Sure the Soviet union would lick it's wounds but it would be doing so as a far, far weaker power.
That assumes that the war starts with that objective in mind.  Many of those who advocated war at this stage did not just want a bunch of border states; they wanted Communism destroyed.  That said, let's say that they manage to restrict themselves, in spite of the severe losses, to their pre-war aims.  The Soviet will know for a fact that it lost its security for the sake of "Western greed", and it will have a severe case of revanchism - all of its gains have been lost, all of its efforts to gain security for its home territories negated by perfidy.  An Allied Finland puts enemy forces kilometres from its second-largest city; an Allied Poland, especially restored to its interwar borders, sits athwart the major corridor into Russian lands while occupying Belarussian and Ukrainian lands; an Allied Ukraine, in the nightmare situation for Soviet leadership, is literally cutting the heart of ancestral Rus out of the country, and more practically seizing its largest breadbasket as well as threatening both its warm water ports south and its access to oil in the Caucasus.  Consider what will be going through the heads of the Soviet leadership after such a war: they allied with Nazi Germany for security, which spontaneously invaded them without any fair cause; they allied with the United States and the United Kingdom for security, which spontaneously invaded them (to their eyes) without any fair cause.  Now, combine this with the fact that in this timeline, nuclear warfare will be considered a regular part of conventional warfare due to the regular use of those American weapons to reduce Soviet war capacity, and with the fact that the Soviet Union will almost certainly have become a nuclear power itself by this point.  That is why it becomes necessary to fully occupy Russia in order to prevent a future war.  Because, if it's not done, you end up with a situation in which a revanchist Soviet Union that has recovered after a decade or two (with commensurate increase in nuclear weapons power) is far, far more willing to launch a nuclear first strike in preemptive self-defense, because it's not paranoia if the world really is out to get you. 

As for the use of air power to blunt pure ground offensives, it's critical to remember that blitzkrieg itself was a combined-arms doctrine.  The use of CAS and similar bombers to reduce fortificative works was a critical component of early German successes against France in particular.  By contrast, failure to prevent the enemy from achieving air superiority (that is, as opposed to even contesting the air) proved critical to the failure of the Battle of the Bulge, which was itself intentionally timed to prevent the Allies from utilizing their superior air power immediately.  Air power will indeed prove critical in blunting the 3:1 advantage of Soviet ground forces over Allied power, but it's actually worth remembering that Operation Unthinkable itself admitted that any failure to achieve total surprise, or to leverage said surprise into actual concrete victories, will result in what was quietly termed a protracted total war.  Any Allied bombing campaign will have to deal with the fact that they're striking targets deep in Soviet territory, against fighters that can actually reach and hammer their bombers (unlike in Japan or late-war Germany, where they could operate with effective impunity) - it can and will happen, but it won't happen with the effectiveness of the 1944-1945 campaigns against a prostrated Germany or Japan. 

Also, here's a fun fact: while the Allied powers had a 3:1 superiority in heavy bombers, it's actually the Soviets who have numerical air superiority in fighters and fighter-bombers, apparently by around 11k planes.  Certainly, the Allied fighters may be superior in quality (though this itself is a questionable assertion, as the Yak-3 was arguably close to, if not the equal of the P-51), but in the near term, it's actually the Soviets who would be able to seize air superiority, a situation that will not change until the loss of Lend-Lease fuel shipments starts to bite into the limited strategic reserves and American production finally ramps up to total war levels.  That's why surprise is so critical to Operation Unthinkable; if the Allies can't achieve decisive successes in the reduction of Soviet forces by winter, they'll be facing down the cream of the Red Army with far lighter forces available to them, and it will be a long and brutal slog East, a cost that will be borne primarily by America and not the other Allies who are largely tapped out in terms of both manpower and fiscal resources.   By the same token, since surprise is critical, they cannot wait for the Pershing or Centurion; they have to go in with the tanks they have, and the newer tanks will only come into play once the war's well underway.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 10:18:44 am
Air power will indeed prove critical in blunting the 3:1 advantage of Soviet ground forces over Allied power

The Soviets simply did not have 3:1 superiority in ground forces in 1946.  They had that advantage in number of divisions but Soviet divisions were massively depleted while western divisions were at full strength.

Also, here's a fun fact: while the Allied powers had a 3:1 superiority in heavy bombers, it's actually the Soviets who have numerical air superiority in fighters and fighter-bombers, apparently by around 11k planes.  Certainly, the Allied fighters may be superior in quality (though this itself is a questionable assertion, as the Yak-3 was arguably close to, if not the equal of the P-51), but in the near term, it's actually the Soviets who would be able to seize air superiority

Nope, look at the Germans.  They sent 80% of their fighters west and the allies achieved complete air superiority while they sent 20% of them east and the Germans dive bombers were able to operate much more aggressively and take fewer losses.

The Soviets had some decent late war designs but the allies had better planes and most crucially, better pilots.

The real issue with air superiority isn't close air support (which sure is handy though) but the fact that Soviet logistics are gonna get bombed to hell.  The Germans had a million men on air defense and another million on rebuilding duties.  Where are the Soviets going to find that manpower to spare in their six million man army?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 10:36:58 am
They could try to refocus part of their army into anti-air profile from the anti-ground one, because of 2-1 advantage on land...
Also, Allied forces attacking USSR would cause most of Europe to join USSR in a wave of communist revolutions.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 10:41:23 am
They could try to refocus part of their army into anti-air profile from the anti-ground one, because of 2-1 advantage on land...
Also, Allied forces attacking USSR would cause most of Europe to join USSR in a wave of communist revolutions.

Where exactly do you think there would be communist revolutions?  Greece maybe?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on August 06, 2014, 10:58:38 am
France, Belgium and Italy would certainly have revolted. Comunism declined later when word of Stalin exess came in the west, but aat the time comunism was big.

Also, the soiviet factories where out of range of bombers, as were most cities.


But did someone here study Patton's plan for invading the USSR? I'm sure it was interesting.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 11:07:35 am
France, Belgium and Italy would certainly have revolted. Comunism declined later when word of Stalin exess came in the west, but aat the time comunism was big.

There were large socialist movements but you could hardly say the general population wanted to be allies with the Soviet Union.  The military even less so.  The French communist party only took about 1/4th the votes in 1946.  That's significant but hardly a country on the verge of a pro-Stalinist revolution.  Compare that to say... east germany or hungry.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 11:10:09 am
France, Belgium and Italy would certainly have revolted. Comunism declined later when word of Stalin exess came in the west, but aat the time comunism was big.

There were large socialist movements but you could hardly say the general population wanted to be allies with the Soviet Union.  The military even less so.  The French communist party only took about 1/4th the votes in 1946.  That's significant but hardly a country on the verge of a pro-Stalinist revolution.
If the war against USSR has erupted, then populace, who were propaganda'd for at least three years to cheer for Russian soldiers, would not understand the Allies literally backstabbing their ally-in-war against Hitler. And after that comes the revolution.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 11:17:16 am
If the war against USSR has erupted, then populace, who were propaganda'd for at least three years to cheer for Russian soldiers, would not understand the Allies literally backstabbing their ally-in-war against Hitler. And after that comes the revolution.

 ???

Okay, why are we assuming this is a backstab?  Also where did you learn French history?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 06, 2014, 11:24:02 am
I wouldn't expect a Communist revolution in these powers, but I would expect them to simply refuse to join the war, citing the very simple fact that their alliance was directed against Germany.  DeGaulle, that ardent anti-Communist, was still focused on rebuilding from the rubble left to him, and when your potential fifth column is a quarter of the country (albeit, a quarter that doesn't have the army, but does have significant partisan groups), that's not quite revolution-worthy, but it is definitely critical to take into account.  Belgium and the Netherlands were not much better off.  Churchill would probably be willing, though Britain's ability to actually sustain a war would be definitely questionable. 

???

Okay, why are we assuming this is a backstab?  Also where did you learn French history?
Because it's a fundamental assumption to any Allied invasion of the USSR to roll back the borders.  Operation Unthinkable requires absolutely no warning to be given to the Soviet Union.  It's also a fundamental violation of agreements made at Yalta.  What do you usually call a sudden sneak-attack made against an allied power? ^_^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on August 06, 2014, 11:26:56 am
If the war against USSR has erupted, then populace, who were propaganda'd for at least three years to cheer for Russian soldiers, would not understand the Allies literally backstabbing their ally-in-war against Hitler. And after that comes the revolution.

 ???

Okay, why are we assuming this is a backstab?  Also where did you learn French history?
It is hot off WWII.  Russia was an ally.  The propaganda machine demonizing communism probably has not gone into full swing... yet.
First strike goes to the Allies?  Assuming they go along with Operation Unthinkable.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 11:34:19 am
Why are we assuming Operation Unthinkable?  It's strategically idiotic.  The west could, in a year achieve numerical superiority in Europe and destroy Soviet logistical capacity through a leisurely bombing campaign.  Why would they attack before increasing their strength?

25% of France supporting a democratic left coaltion that included communists does not equate to 25% of France supporting Communist revolution.

The French were actively building an army in 46 to stand against the Soviet treat to Europe.  It isn't a question of if the French would be allies with the Brits and Americans, it's how much they could assemble.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on August 06, 2014, 11:49:33 am
Why are we assuming Operation Unthinkable?  It's strategically idiotic.  The west could, in a year achieve numerical superiority in Europe and destroy Soviet logistical capacity through a leisurely bombing campaign.  Why would they attack before increasing their strength?

25% of France supporting a democratic left coaltion that included communists does not equate to 25% of France supporting Communist revolution.

The French were actively building an army in 46 to stand against the Soviet treat to Europe.  It isn't a question of if the French would be allies with the Brits and Americans, it's how much they could assemble.
So, the scenario is going to start with the cold war going normally, except, the Allies build up forces across the border... then attacking when they are good and ready?  After the propaganda demonizing Communism sets in.

Alright, so not a backstab.  No surprise element either.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 11:55:14 am
The scenario as I understand it is that the cold war goes hot over Berlin in 1946.  I'm saying that the west would be delighted if the soviets let them just sit around in Germany building up their forces and bombing the east german infrastructure for six months.  In six months the west can muster maybe 90 American divisions and 50 British and 30 French divisions.  That's a huge improvement from just a little patience.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 06, 2014, 11:56:26 am
Air power will indeed prove critical in blunting the 3:1 advantage of Soviet ground forces over Allied power

The Soviets simply did not have 3:1 superiority in ground forces in 1946.  They had that advantage in number of divisions but Soviet divisions were massively depleted while western divisions were at full strength.

Also, here's a fun fact: while the Allied powers had a 3:1 superiority in heavy bombers, it's actually the Soviets who have numerical air superiority in fighters and fighter-bombers, apparently by around 11k planes.  Certainly, the Allied fighters may be superior in quality (though this itself is a questionable assertion, as the Yak-3 was arguably close to, if not the equal of the P-51), but in the near term, it's actually the Soviets who would be able to seize air superiority

Nope, look at the Germans.  They sent 80% of their fighters west and the allies achieved complete air superiority while they sent 20% of them east and the Germans dive bombers were able to operate much more aggressively and take fewer losses.

The Soviets had some decent late war designs but the allies had better planes and most crucially, better pilots.

The real issue with air superiority isn't close air support (which sure is handy though) but the fact that Soviet logistics are gonna get bombed to hell.  The Germans had a million men on air defense and another million on rebuilding duties.  Where are the Soviets going to find that manpower to spare in their six million man army?
Sorry, I didn't mean that air superiority by the Soviets was predicated on CAS alone; that whole paragraph was meant for the person saying that heavy tanks were more important than air superiority, which can be disproved by how quickly German offensives unraveled in the late war under Allied bombing campaigns.  I meant that those fighters are going to be tasked with hitting the Allied heavy bombers before they can reach Soviet logistics.  They won't necessarily succeed perfectly on that, and they'll likely burn through their fuel at a significant rate (the Lend-Lease program is presently supplying over 80% of the Soviet's aviation fuel needs; its cessation will require raw petrol and refineries to be retasked to making up the gap), but it will be very important to the near-term successes or failures of Operation Unthinkable. 

Why are we assuming Operation Unthinkable?  It's strategically idiotic.  The west could, in a year achieve numerical superiority in Europe and destroy Soviet logistical capacity through a leisurely bombing campaign.  Why would they attack before increasing their strength?

25% of France supporting a democratic left coaltion that included communists does not equate to 25% of France supporting Communist revolution.

The French were actively building an army in 46 to stand against the Soviet treat to Europe.  It isn't a question of if the French would be allies with the Brits and Americans, it's how much they could assemble.
So, the scenario is going to start with the cold war going normally, except, the Allies build up forces across the border... then attacking when they are good and ready?  After the propaganda demonizing Communism sets in.

Alright, so not a backstab.  No surprise element either.
So, just out of curiosity as well, how are they going to explain this to their soldiers and, more importantly, their constituents?  The Allies have already been drawing down their forces in 1945, serving discharge papers and the like.  Churchill is out of office, and to the home front, the war is over.  Politically, the only real window for an invasion is during or immediately after the fall of Germany.  If you suddenly start mobilizing your forces again, Truman's going to have to go before Congress, and Churchill's going to have to explain to Parliament why he, a caretaker leader of the opposition, has started another war - really, Churchill will have to do that anyways.  Any theoretical war will have to bear that in mind.

EDIT:
The scenario as I understand it is that the cold war goes hot over Berlin in 1946.  I'm saying that the west would be delighted if the soviets let them just sit around in Germany building up their forces and bombing the east german infrastructure for six months.
Ah, and my assumption was completely different.  Just out of curiosity, how does it go hot in 1946?  Stalin doesn't make his move on Berlin until 1948.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 11:58:41 am
Why are we assuming Operation Unthinkable?  It's strategically idiotic.  The west could, in a year achieve numerical superiority in Europe and destroy Soviet logistical capacity through a leisurely bombing campaign.  Why would they attack before increasing their strength?

25% of France supporting a democratic left coaltion that included communists does not equate to 25% of France supporting Communist revolution.

The French were actively building an army in 46 to stand against the Soviet treat to Europe.  It isn't a question of if the French would be allies with the Brits and Americans, it's how much they could assemble.

If it was THAT EASY to defeat USSR, then we must assume that all western commanders were idiots for not seeing the superiority of pure air bombing doctrine and not attacking USSR.

If we assume that western commanders are not stupid, then you must also admit that you underestimate the soviet fighting power. (EDIT: or overestimate western superiority...)

You're in a fork now. Choose one.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 06, 2014, 12:13:47 pm
I think the point of what many people are saying, is while not easy, a war against the USSR *could* be won through logistics and bombing.
Also, the lend lease program gave the Russians many, many trucks. Without that many of their factories would turn from tank production into truck production, or else they would face many logistical problems.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 12:25:40 pm
If it was THAT EASY to defeat USSR, then we must assume that all western commanders were idiots for not seeing the superiority of pure air bombing doctrine and not attacking USSR.

If we assume that western commanders are not stupid, then you must also admit that you underestimate the soviet fighting power. (EDIT: or overestimate western superiority...)

You're in a fork now. Choose one.

Loaded question is loaded.  Maybe they didn't want to kill ten million people in a war of aggression that would have created an unpalatable new world order.

Frankly I consider it somewhat disturbing that you consider "because we can" sufficient reason for war.

Ah, and my assumption was completely different.  Just out of curiosity, how does it go hot in 1946?  Stalin doesn't make his move on Berlin until 1948.

Whoops, mixed up the years I guess.  I have no clue what the politics are, just looking at the military side of things.  But I imagine the politics would work themselves out pretty quickly because the Soviets are probably going to start pushing into West Germany, trying to grab territory before NATO brings it's troops in.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 12:58:27 pm
If it was THAT EASY to defeat USSR, then we must assume that all western commanders were idiots for not seeing the superiority of pure air bombing doctrine and not attacking USSR.

If we assume that western commanders are not stupid, then you must also admit that you underestimate the soviet fighting power. (EDIT: or overestimate western superiority...)

You're in a fork now. Choose one.

Loaded question is loaded.  Maybe they didn't want to kill ten million people in a war of aggression that would have created an unpalatable new world order.

Frankly I consider it somewhat disturbing that you consider "because we can" sufficient reason for war.

Ah, and my assumption was completely different.  Just out of curiosity, how does it go hot in 1946?  Stalin doesn't make his move on Berlin until 1948.

Whoops, mixed up the years I guess.  I have no clue what the politics are, just looking at the military side of things.  But I imagine the politics would work themselves out pretty quickly because the Soviets are probably going to start pushing into West Germany, trying to grab territory before NATO brings it's troops in.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO

"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO; /ˈneɪtoʊ/; French: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique Nord (OTAN)), also called the (North) Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance based on the North Atlantic Treaty which was signed on 4 April 1949"

And here's the proof that you live in an alternate history Well.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 06, 2014, 01:00:31 pm
I think the point of what many people are saying, is while not easy, a war against the USSR *could* be won through logistics and bombing.
Also, the lend lease program gave the Russians many, many trucks. Without that many of their factories would turn from tank production into truck production, or else they would face many logistical problems.
Yep, almost two-thirds of their truck fleet is Allied-made.  86% of their aviation fuel is Allied.  Soviet production of locomotives and rolling stock for repairing existing and constructing new rail lines effectively ceased, replaced entirely by Lend-Lease.  The critical component, though, is food - the total food shipments was well over 1 million tons.  Much of the Soviet breadbasket, the Ukraine and the black earth belt, was ravaged in the war, and won't recover for a couple years. 

Ah, and my assumption was completely different.  Just out of curiosity, how does it go hot in 1946?  Stalin doesn't make his move on Berlin until 1948.

Whoops, mixed up the years I guess.  I have no clue what the politics are, just looking at the military side of things.  But I imagine the politics would work themselves out pretty quickly because the Soviets are probably going to start pushing into West Germany, trying to grab territory before NATO brings it's troops in.
An understandable mistake, and one I'v emade before.  Unfortunately, the two-year difference is critical to this argument.  The Soviets no longer need to hold off for four years, but less than one - RDS-1 will be detonated in August of 1949.  A war over the Berlin Blockade (say, an accident during the airlift), is at a critical stage in global politics and a tenuous military situation.  On the Soviet side, they've started to recover from the war; Lend-Lease becomes less relevant, as the Soviets have rebuilt at home and added on the industrial spoils of war from a denuded Germany.  The army numbers are absolutely terrible for the Allies - the entire US Army of half a million men, worldwide, is outnumbered thrice-over by the Soviet forces surrounding Berlin alone, and we're no longer looking at tattered divisions fresh from the Battle of Berlin that you mentioned, but a fully-prepared force that is taking part in a carefully-staged provocation that has just gone off the rails (Stalin didn't want war, either; he wanted to use it to secure concessions).  The Soviet Air Force has just been thoroughly reorganized; the VVS is getting a lot of love, and is on the verge of following the American lead as a separate branch of the armed forces (1949).  On the Allied side, though official doctrine calls for nuclear carpet-bombing in order to stem this tide, they have no nuclear-capable aircraft available at the commencement of hostilities - less than three dozen atomic-capable B-29s exist, and the first of them won't arrive in Europe until April of next year, though that's likely to be expedited under the circumstances.  Still worse, that means that each of those aircraft will get less than two bombs to drop: in mid-1948, the American nuclear arsenal hasn't yet breached the hundred-count.  On the bright side, the Mark 4 about to enter full production, and the first cruise missile, the Matador, will be tested in 1949 (for general production by 1953 and deployment by 1954, though I'd expect it to be rushed due to the war - expect it a couple years after the war begins).  The mention of Pershings and Centurions earlier is also changed by the two year separation - they've gone from blueprint to reality, and are now the main battle tank of the American and British forces, with the imminent arrival of the Pattons also to be eagerly anticipated.  By contrast, the T-44 is going through serious teething issues, but the T-54 is also entering mass production as well.  France is also going to be in much better shape for such a war; they'll be organized and ready to fight.

On an ancillary theatre, the Sino-Soviet split is still far away, and the Soviet occupation of Manchuria has ended two years before, freeing up Malinovsky's Far East forces and giving Mao a stable base of power from which he will be able to launch his pivotal campaigns to crush the KMT - by the end of next year, Sichuan will have fallen and Chiang and his entourage will have fled the mainland.  In Korea, Syngman Rhee has not stabilized South Korea yet; he was only just elected in 1948, though he'll waste no time getting his army to work shooting civilians.  The occupation of Japan is still in full swing, which is a mixed blessing: the Eighth Army is slowly decaying away under the ravages of peace and Walker either hasn't yet or has only just arrived, with inadequate time to whip them back into shape, but they are a significant source of manpower already on the scene. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 01:01:51 pm
Genghis Khan lives to the age of 80 giving him 15 more years of Empire expansion as his generals no longer have to gallop back to Mongolia. How much more of the rest of the world does the Mongolian Empire include? Do the Mongolians ever learn how to conduct a naval invasion?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 01:04:01 pm
Genghis Khan lives to the age of 80 giving him 15 more years of Empire expansion as his generals no longer have to gallop back to Mongolia. How much more of the rest of the world does the Mongolian Empire include? Do the Mongolians ever learn how to conduct a naval invasion?
They knew how to conduct a naval invasion, it's just that they were really unlucky with weather. Like the Spain with their Grandee Armada.

The storm that destroyed the Mongol Invasion fleet was named Divine Wind - Kamikaze - by Japanese.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 01:05:01 pm
"The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO; /ˈneɪtoʊ/; French: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique Nord (OTAN)), also called the (North) Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance based on the North Atlantic Treaty which was signed on 4 April 1949"

Nice nitpick bro.

An understandable mistake, and one I'v emade before.  Unfortunately, the two-year difference is critical to this argument.

Actually turns out the question was for 45, so I was actually slightly late:

Now, another question: What would the outcome have been if the Cold War had never existed, because the East-West conflict went hot as soon as Berlin fell?

Genghis Khan lives to the age of 80 giving him 15 more years of Empire expansion as his generals no longer have to gallop back to Mongolia. How much more of the rest of the world does the Mongolian Empire include? Do the Mongolians ever learn how to conduct a naval invasion?

Um, none?  His successors were hardly incompetent and he couldn't rely on people being surprised by the reintroduction of horse archers forever.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 01:47:44 pm
They knew how to conduct a naval invasion, it's just that they were really unlucky with weather. Like the Spain with their Grandee Armada.
The storm that destroyed the Mongol Invasion fleet was named Divine Wind - Kamikaze - by Japanese.
The Spanish were defeated at the battle of Gravelines before the storm wrecked the survivors and the Mongolians did not know how to conduct a naval invasion. When they saw the storm coming they reembarked on their naval vessels to sail away, right into the storm and Japanese fleet. In the second they used boats like these:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Riverboats which were a poor substitute for a serious navy, and considering that at this time Chinese naval technology was superior to European naval technology how many times would poor Mongolian planning have to result in destruction before they realized many small flat hulled ships = so much drowning?

Um, none?  His successors were hardly incompetent and he couldn't rely on people being surprised by the reintroduction of horse archers forever.
When Genghis died the Mongols all went back to Mongolia, when Ogedei died they all went back to Mongolia. Him staying alive that much longer would mean Xi-Xia and the Jin dynasty are conquered and Subatai and Ogedei can both invade the hell out of Eastern Europe much sooner and fresh from the momentum of their victories, as long as Genghis dies after the initial Mongolian victories over Austria then in the following campaign Subatai could also be able to successfully invade the Holy Roman Empire before the death of Ogedei pressures him to withdraw.
Then everything falls apart. But for a brief moment the Mongolian Empire could be that much bigger.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 01:57:46 pm
You can't assume that just because the Mongols have a decent streak of victories going they are unbeatable.  They luck did run out y'know.  They push a little sooner, they get bogged down a little sooner I say.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 06, 2014, 02:05:07 pm
http://i.imgur.com/5XwtPFe.png
"Mongol Mongol"
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 02:08:46 pm
You can't assume that just because the Mongols have a decent streak of victories going they are unbeatable.  They luck did run out y'know.  They push a little sooner, they get bogged down a little sooner I say.
During the rainy years of Mongolia and with their best generals still alive and with European tactics still being almost as backwards as Japanese tactics the Mongolians have a window of opportunity to take it over. I wonder if the Mongolians would crack the shells of European fortresses and corner the Egyptian cavalry.

Also a hilarious alternate history where the Mongolian Empire founds a world Empire and conquers the Americas instead of the Spanish.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 06, 2014, 02:12:39 pm
I highly doubt any possibility of Mongols forming a world empire, judging by the performance of various Hordes...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 02:22:52 pm
During the rainy years of Mongolia and with their best generals still alive and with European tactics still being almost as backwards as Japanese tactics the Mongolians have a window of opportunity to take it over.
[/quote]

You mean the same outdated European tactics that had worked against Attila the Hun 800 years previously?

Eurasian history is chock full of hordes or nomads sweeping in from the wilderness.  The Mongolians happened to be the most successful of these.  While it's possible that there was something inherently different about them it's also just possible that they happened to be the luckiest.  Considering that Mongolians went on to lose some battles pretty badly later and there was no major difference in their tactics compared to what had been around for more then 1000 years, I'm gonna say that it's just an example of every probability curve having a tail end.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Digital Hellhound on August 06, 2014, 02:34:56 pm
The Mongols won every battle - at least came back and won every battle - until Ain Jalut (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ain_Jalut). Wasn't European tactics that beat them then, either, but mobile Mamluk cavalry forces. Attributing all the Mongols' successes to just luck is... eesh. Also, a Mongol world empire, while unlikely, is hardly impossible. These weren't mindless barbarians. The Pax Mongolica was pretty successful, and Mongol khanates ruled their corners of the world for a long time after the Empire had fallen (which I wouldn't say was Genghis' death - Ogedei, Mongke and Kublai still held the allegiance of the lesser Khanates and could dictate orders to them, though their control was not nearly as absolute).

EDIT: Though, I think we should think on a mix of this and the original scenario: Neo-Mongol techno-barbarian invasion versus the EU, go go go.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 06, 2014, 02:41:50 pm
Okay, another interesting possible topic is, what would have happened if the Normans were defeated at Hasting.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 02:46:57 pm
You mean the same outdated European tactics that had worked against Attila the Hun 800 years previously?
Eurasian history is chock full of hordes or nomads sweeping in from the wilderness.  The Mongolians happened to be the most successful of these.  While it's possible that there was something inherently different about them it's also just possible that they happened to be the luckiest.  Considering that Mongolians went on to lose some battles pretty badly later and there was no major difference in their tactics compared to what had been around for more then 1000 years, I'm gonna say that it's just an example of every probability curve having a tail end.
You compare the defeat of Attila at the battle of the Catalaunian plains and the Mongol victories at the battle of Mohi or the battle of Legnica. Attila charges into the Romans and dies at the battle of the Catalaunian plains. The Mongols in the battle of Mohi adapt around setbacks like losing the bridge by building their own, counter their crossbowmen with catapults and ultimately outflank the enemy and drive them to destruction into the marshes (always stopping short of encircling them so they never fought to the death) or in Legnica where they just kept retreating and firing arrows into the European forces as they tended to do on a standard basis.
The most disciplined and well trained horsemen in all of human history didn't exactly win on a luck basis. They had perfected their tactics down to a hair and it would take Baibars to out-Mongol the Mongols before they got wrecked. And at Ain Jalut the Mongolians weren't even using their hallmark tactics any more, they were using strategy that was distinctly European in simplicity :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 02:50:26 pm
Or y'know, Russia knights backed up by peasant levies.

The tactics only worked until they didn't.  History is undoubtedly full of barbarian leaders who lost and no one remembered a century later.  The romans had been practicing that supposedly unbeatable tactic for over 1000 years continuously at this point.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 02:54:29 pm
Or y'know, Russia knights backed up by peasant levies.
The tactics only worked until they didn't.  History is undoubtedly full of barbarian leaders who lost and no one remembered a century later.
The Mongolians wiped Eastern European Knights with peasant levies into the floor though, what are you trying to say? You do realize you're comparing Genghis Khan to nameless barbarian leaders?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on August 06, 2014, 02:54:52 pm
Heh, I think we should actually get a new topic for each of this scenarios, as this one is getting really messy, really quickly.

Also, I would say that Allies would have a pretty good chance against Soviets in 1945; there is a very good reason to believe that, and this reason is the fact that Stalin didn't attack them. He wanted communism to spread to all corners of the world; only superior military could stop him from doing that. And as he didn't sweep down on West in 1945... Well, at least in his mind Soviets didn't have enough of an advantage.
All that said, we need to take into account that Western Allies had some pretty damn impressive generals. Soviets had Zhukov, who was as incompetent as it gets...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 06, 2014, 02:57:04 pm
Okay, another interesting possible topic is, what would have happened if the Normans were defeated at Hasting.

Interesting. Probably no Great Britain nor Empire, and as a result no USA in the way we would identify it. A non unified and probably infighting British Isles would have been a tempting cherry for any of the early middle age powers.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 02:57:36 pm
Dont often hear people describe Zhukov as incompetent.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 03:04:10 pm
Heh, I think we should actually get a new topic for each of this scenarios, as this one is getting really messy, really quickly.
Scenarios come and go and multiple threads clutter and fight one another across all theatres of board operation until only one thread yet remains, subjecting all others to its unending hegemony in the top spot above a sea of emotion megathreads.

Also, I would say that Allies would have a pretty good chance against Soviets in 1945; there is a very good reason to believe that, and this reason is the fact that Stalin didn't attack them. He wanted communism to spread to all corners of the world; only superior military could stop him from doing that. And as he didn't sweep down on West in 1945... Well, at least in his mind Soviets didn't have enough of an advantage.
All that said, we need to take into account that Western Allies had some pretty damn impressive generals. Soviets had Zhukov, who was as incompetent as it gets...
One of the most successful generals in WWII was incompetent?

Okay, another interesting possible topic is, what would have happened if the Normans were defeated at Hasting.
Interesting. Probably no Great Britain nor Empire, and as a result no USA in the way we would identify it. A non unified and probably infighting British Isles would have been a tempting cherry for any of the early middle age powers.
Also the British Isles would look decidedly more Scandinavian and the Byzantine Empire wouldn't get to make its extensive use of the Varangian Guard as the English would not have felt the same need to flee.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 06, 2014, 03:08:39 pm
Heh, I think we should actually get a new topic for each of this scenarios, as this one is getting really messy, really quickly.
Scenarios come and go and multiple threads clutter and fight one another across all theatres of board operation until only one thread yet remains, subjecting all others to its unending hegemony in the top spot above a sea of emotion megathreads.

Also, I would say that Allies would have a pretty good chance against Soviets in 1945; there is a very good reason to believe that, and this reason is the fact that Stalin didn't attack them. He wanted communism to spread to all corners of the world; only superior military could stop him from doing that. And as he didn't sweep down on West in 1945... Well, at least in his mind Soviets didn't have enough of an advantage.
All that said, we need to take into account that Western Allies had some pretty damn impressive generals. Soviets had Zhukov, who was as incompetent as it gets...
One of the most successful generals in WWII was incompetent?

Okay, another interesting possible topic is, what would have happened if the Normans were defeated at Hasting.
Interesting. Probably no Great Britain nor Empire, and as a result no USA in the way we would identify it. A non unified and probably infighting British Isles would have been a tempting cherry for any of the early middle age powers.
Also the British Isles would look decidedly more Scandinavian and the Byzantine Empire wouldn't get to make its extensive use of the Varangian Guard as the English would not have felt the same need to flee.

Scandanavian, Germanic or Celtic, depending on who was left standing after the repeated infighting.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on August 06, 2014, 03:13:38 pm
Dont often hear people describe Zhukov as incompetent.
Zhukov did made some colossal failures during WW2. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mars) I wouldn't dismiss him or anyone else in the Red Army as woefully incompetent at the end of the war, though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 06, 2014, 03:14:27 pm
What about the development of Ireland without Britain interfering? Would we see them grow to be a powerful nation of some sort? Or would they be riddled by infighting like England, Scotland, and Wales?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 06, 2014, 03:17:07 pm
What about the development of Ireland without Britain interfering? Would we see them grow to be a powerful nation of some sort? Or would they be riddled by infighting like England, Scotland, and Wales?

The Irish provinces were just as infighty as the Scots, Welsh and Anglos.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 06, 2014, 03:24:25 pm
Yeah, that's true, but would one of them come out dominant without the influence of a strong nation interfering? or would other nations take actions to move into Ireland and stake a claim? France perhaps? Without England's strong navy to stand against them they would have an easier time claiming the seas.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 03:43:23 pm
Yeah, then they'd have to contend with the Dutch, Spanish and Portuguese. America would also be French.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 06, 2014, 03:46:56 pm
Clearly, with the British out of the way, Courland would have colonized the New World.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 06, 2014, 03:50:30 pm
Yeah, then they'd have to contend with the Dutch, Spanish and Portuguese. America would also be French.

I suspect the Spanish influence on the USA would also be far more significant.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 06, 2014, 03:55:44 pm
Yeah, then they'd have to contend with the Dutch, Spanish and Portuguese. America would also be French.
I suspect the Spanish influence on the USA would also be far more significant.
And when no one's watching the Icelandic Empire pulls the rug out from Europe.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 06, 2014, 03:59:25 pm
Hmm. I could see the British Isles becoming part of the Kalmar Union in the absence of a Norman influence, and a very Scandinavian US as a result, too.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Fniff on August 06, 2014, 04:43:19 pm
I secretly want a dominant Ireland (Irish here), but I recognize that reality does not equal Crusader Kings 2.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 06, 2014, 05:03:47 pm
Genghis Khan lives to the age of 80 giving him 15 more years of Empire expansion as his generals no longer have to gallop back to Mongolia. How much more of the rest of the world does the Mongolian Empire include? Do the Mongolians ever learn how to conduct a naval invasion?

At best, they manage to conquer more of Hungary Austria. In reality, they probably would've just gotten bogged down fighting the Mamluks.

Okay, another interesting possible topic is, what would have happened if the Normans were defeated at Hasting.

England probably would've flipped back to the Danes before too long. That or Hardrada's descendents would take another stab at it and be successful. Like MonkeyHead said, they probably would've been inducted into the Scandinavian circle, and continue absorbing Norse culture instead of veering off and absorbing Norman French. I actually wrote a paper on the influence of Norse culture in England last year for a course (I'm a history major), and by the time the Normans came the English had already adopted a large number of Scandinavian practices and linguistic elements. It's not inconceivable to see them becoming part of a Scandinavian union, some successor to Cnut's "North Sea Empire" or whatever you want to call it. The ramifications for European politics would be huge though. First off, there would be no Hundred Years War and the English presence in France just would be less of a thing. Which would also probably mean an extremely reduced English presence in the Crusades, notably the 3rd, which was mostly an English endeavor. What would be interesting is the colonization of the Americas. I feel that Scandinavia would largely supplant England, and possibly even beat out the French earlier, the Scandinavians having a longer tradition of seafaring explorers. Add in the butterfly effect multiplying over the course of a millenium, and we'd have a very very different world today. That is assuming the Scandinavians won the inevitable infighting, which I think is the most likely outcome.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on August 07, 2014, 04:07:00 am
Dont often hear people describe Zhukov as incompetent.
Zhukov did made some colossal failures during WW2. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mars) I wouldn't dismiss him or anyone else in the Red Army as woefully incompetent at the end of the war, though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_in_Berlin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_in_Berlin)

I would. Although he might have learned something over the course of the years, I really think he didn't; his tactics in the '45 was almost the same that the one he used in '42 and '43. That being said, Koniev for example have been a much better commander, from what I've gathered in my years of interest in WW II, but overall, I think that Western Allies had much better commanders.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Neonivek on August 07, 2014, 04:15:58 am
WW1 and 2 and the wars that followed until about the 60s were very interesting because the new weapons and technology completely changed the face of combat and tactics.

To the extent that they had to entirely rewrite the book of tactics... With small samplings of modern day tactics being invented in WW2.

I'd say a large swath of generals in WW2 were incompetent... simply because to be competent in WW2 you have to create your own strategy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 10:04:19 am
I'd say a large swath of generals in WW2 were incompetent... simply because to be competent in WW2 you have to create your own strategy.
Except for the German (Rommel for one) commanders, who pretty much revolutionized the way the war was fought, massed tank formations of blitzkrieg and the like, when the Germans stormed into France, the French, even with arguably better tanks, were out matched by the tactics, and used their tanks as infantry support, scattering them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 07, 2014, 10:33:35 am
In many ways the German tactics showed they had learnt the lessons from WW1 - looking to hold ground led to trenches and horrible, horrible stalemate, whereas fast and hard assaults not only gained territory but prevented much in the way of prepared defence from your enemy. War suddenly favoured the fast and the aggressive instead of those who could grit their teeth and tough it out while sitting still. Many Allied commanders were probably lulled into a false sense of superiority having come out on top in the trench based warfare, having no real reason to need to innovate, unlike German commanders.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on August 07, 2014, 12:38:16 pm
Dont often hear people describe Zhukov as incompetent.
Zhukov did made some colossal failures during WW2. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mars) I wouldn't dismiss him or anyone else in the Red Army as woefully incompetent at the end of the war, though.
Losing does not necessarily equate to incompetence.  Winning does not necessarily equate to genius either. 
There are 2 sides to a war.  The strategic/tactical overview does not rest on the shoulder of one side's leadership.  There is the other side's leadership to account for also.  (Plus you know, shit happens.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 12:45:19 pm
Also, early war, quality of troops. I would honestly pit 3-5 Germans to Russians at the start and have my money on German, by the end, not so much.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: DJ on August 07, 2014, 12:45:55 pm
Russia should be included on the European side. Pretty much everything important is in the European part of the country, and they wouldn't miss a chance like this to get rid of their nemesis. I reckon those numbers in the OP would look a lot different if Russia is included.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 12:50:03 pm
Well Russia isnt EU, which was the start of the argument I believe
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on August 07, 2014, 12:53:10 pm
We did include non EU countries such as the Swiss as well, so...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sindain on August 07, 2014, 01:26:12 pm
Russia should be included on the European side. Pretty much everything important is in the European part of the country, and they wouldn't miss a chance like this to get rid of their nemesis. I reckon those numbers in the OP would look a lot different if Russia is included.

Why? Would the US and Russia even be nemesis in this scenario? The main reasons Russia hates the US is leftover enmity from the Cold War and the US presence in NATO. With a US-EU war NATO would fall apart, and all of the US's influence in the Russian sphere along with it.
TBH I would think that the opposite might be more likely, the US allying with Russia. An expansionist Russia (which ya know, already kinda exists.) would inevitably come into conflict with the EU, making them a natural ally to the US. It certainly wouldn't be the first time the US and Russia allied together vs a western European power. Of course they would still have to get over the old hatred, but at the very least I seriously doubt Russia would DoW the US just as a screw you.

Though I guess Russia might just want control of the Middle East really badly or something.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on August 07, 2014, 02:10:45 pm
It is a scenario involving US invading an united europe and switzerland fighting in the war. Realistic alliances have no power here.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 02:15:19 pm
If Europe had time to prepare, how long do you think they could fight off a combined force of the USA and Russia?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 07, 2014, 02:24:12 pm
Dont often hear people describe Zhukov as incompetent.
Zhukov did made some colossal failures during WW2. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mars) I wouldn't dismiss him or anyone else in the Red Army as woefully incompetent at the end of the war, though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_in_Berlin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_in_Berlin)

I would. Although he might have learned something over the course of the years, I really think he didn't; his tactics in the '45 was almost the same that the one he used in '42 and '43. That being said, Koniev for example have been a much better commander, from what I've gathered in my years of interest in WW II, but overall, I think that Western Allies had much better commanders.
Spoiler: offtop (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sindain on August 07, 2014, 02:27:32 pm
It is a scenario involving US invading an united europe and switzerland fighting in the war. Realistic alliances have no power here.

You could justify most anything using that logic, and it does invalidate DJ's point about Russia joining the war to get rid of their nemesis. I say that leaving Russia out is a fine decision since we're being pretty arbitrary anyway.

Though while we're on this point how viable would a invasion via eastern Siberia be? Supply lines would be atrocious but it would pretty much remove the difficulty of launching an amphibious assault on Europe itself.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 02:35:06 pm
It is a scenario involving US invading an united europe and switzerland fighting in the war. Realistic alliances have no power here.

You could justify most anything using that logic, and it does invalidate DJ's point about Russia joining the war to get rid of their nemesis. I say that leaving Russia out is a fine decision since we're being pretty arbitrary anyway.

Though while we're on this point how viable would a invasion via eastern Siberia be? Supply lines would be atrocious but it would pretty much remove the difficulty of launching an amphibious assault on Europe itself.
If they cut the trans Siberian line youre done
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on August 07, 2014, 02:36:03 pm
yes, what I am tyring to say is that saying "no, that wouldn't happen because reason X" has little weight in this discussion, since it is entirely based on 'what ifs'. We can run scenarios with Russia on either side or with it staying neutral without worrying too much about what it would do.

About landing in eastern Siberia, the landing itself would be really easy but moving westward across all russia is going to be a tremendous effort. Especially if russians decide to burn infrasttructure on their retreat, a tactc that is not unknown to them. By the time soldiers , supply lines and air bases get close enough to start invading populated areas, the war is over. ( well, maybe exageration, but it is going to tie a lot of manpower and resources in just getting the army across and if Russia doesn't try to defend the shore, the european block has a lot of time to prepare.)

edit:
If they cut the trans Siberian line you're done
Exactly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 07, 2014, 02:37:09 pm
It is a scenario involving US invading an united europe and switzerland fighting in the war. Realistic alliances have no power here.

You could justify most anything using that logic, and it does invalidate DJ's point about Russia joining the war to get rid of their nemesis. I say that leaving Russia out is a fine decision since we're being pretty arbitrary anyway.

Though while we're on this point how viable would a invasion via eastern Siberia be? Supply lines would be atrocious but it would pretty much remove the difficulty of launching an amphibious assault on Europe itself.

I think an amphib assault on mainland EU is less of an issue logistically than an overland push over thousands of Km of Arctic tundra - either way the US would have long supply lines. I know the US military has good logistics, but supplying a fighting force of the size needed to take on the substantial obstacle provided hypothetical combined EU force over the Atlantic or over most of Russia (which however the advance took place would leave a huge vulnerable flank somewhere to be exploited) is pushing it too far to assume it would be able to cope.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 02:38:26 pm
If the us would invade Europe, would the Europeans, saying they lose the UK to the US, re-purpose whats left of Hitlers Atlantic wall?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 07, 2014, 02:40:47 pm
If the us would invade Europe, would the Europeans, saying they lose the UK to the US, re-purpose whats left of Hitlers Atlantic wall?

Probably. If nothing else it is a good starting point for a new system of forts etc.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 02:56:06 pm
Which would mean either a heavily contested landing into France or Spain, or pushing though Denmark or past Gibraltar. But if they did fight through Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Island would fall and make good supply points.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 07, 2014, 03:00:35 pm
Which would mean either a heavily contested landing into France or Spain, or pushing though Denmark or past Gibraltar. But if they did fight through Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Island would fall and make good supply points.

Gibraltar would be a fucking horrible place to assault. The straights between Spain and Morocco are a natural bottleneck for ships that would be a lovely kill-zone to mine as soon as you saw the enemy steaming over the horizon or even drop loads of missiles, shells and bombs onto, and the Rock is a ready made fort - handily overlooking the only decent landing site of the sheltered bay.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 03:06:22 pm
Which would mean either a heavily contested landing into France or Spain, or pushing though Denmark or past Gibraltar. But if they did fight through Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Island would fall and make good supply points.

Gibraltar would be a fucking horrible place to assault. The straights between Spain and Morocco are a natural bottleneck for ships that would be a lovely kill-zone to mine as soon as you saw the enemy steaming over the horizon or even drop loads of missiles, shells and bombs onto, and the Rock is a ready made fort - handily overlooking the only decent landing site of the sheltered bay.
Not necessarily take, if they damaged the EU fleet to take England, they may be able to force through the straight, not take the rock though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on August 07, 2014, 03:08:59 pm
Which would mean either a heavily contested landing into France or Spain, or pushing though Denmark or past Gibraltar. But if they did fight through Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Island would fall and make good supply points.

Gibraltar would be a fucking horrible place to assault. The straights between Spain and Morocco are a natural bottleneck for ships that would be a lovely kill-zone to mine as soon as you saw the enemy steaming over the horizon or even drop loads of missiles, shells and bombs onto, and the Rock is a ready made fort - handily overlooking the only decent landing site of the sheltered bay.
Not necessarily take, if they damaged the EU fleet to take England, they may be able to force through the straight, not take the rock though.
Force through the strait?  How many times?  Just once?  Or everytime they need to send/receive supply/reinforcements?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 03:13:51 pm
Which would mean either a heavily contested landing into France or Spain, or pushing though Denmark or past Gibraltar. But if they did fight through Gibraltar, the Mediterranean Island would fall and make good supply points.

Gibraltar would be a fucking horrible place to assault. The straights between Spain and Morocco are a natural bottleneck for ships that would be a lovely kill-zone to mine as soon as you saw the enemy steaming over the horizon or even drop loads of missiles, shells and bombs onto, and the Rock is a ready made fort - handily overlooking the only decent landing site of the sheltered bay.
Not necessarily take, if they damaged the EU fleet to take England, they may be able to force through the straight, not take the rock though.
Force through the strait?  How many times?  Just once?  Or everytime they need to send/receive supply/reinforcements?
If you force the strait once, you have probably dealt with their fleet, and can set up a blockade of the Rock while it wont fall because of Spanish support, you will have fairly free access to the Mediterranean.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: DJ on August 07, 2014, 03:49:09 pm
Well Russians consider themselves European, so you can't just count them out. Not any more than Ukraine, at least.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 07, 2014, 03:58:47 pm
New scenario! How would WWII been different if Hitler hadn't turned to bombing UK cities, and instead kept bombing strategic targets, and followed it up with an amphibious invasion of England?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on August 07, 2014, 05:24:19 pm
Probably not too differently since the brits were rather prepared for an invasion across the channel. So instead of wasting resources and manpower on ineffectual bombing the jerries would waste it on an amphibious invasion doomed to fail.

Unless they somehow got in trough Ireland. That would prove a tad trickier to deal with, since most of the fortifications were facing east.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 05:40:11 pm
That would arguably be the end of Britain. With Ireland under German control, American supplies reaching Britain would be nearly impossible, while a ground invasion might be impossible, their forces in Africa would be cut off and on their own to face good 'ole Rommel, and the Lion would be de-clawed.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Digital Hellhound on August 07, 2014, 05:43:27 pm
I don't see how an amphibious invasion of Ireland is going to work any better than one of Britain. You've still got the Royal Navy blocking your way, and preventing supply and reinforcement if you by miracle land a force.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 07, 2014, 05:45:48 pm
I don't see how an amphibious invasion of Ireland is going to work any better than one of Britain. You've still got the Royal Navy blocking your way, and preventing supply and reinforcement if you by miracle land a force.
Even if unfeasible, if it did happen it would put Britain in a very tight spot.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on August 07, 2014, 05:58:07 pm
Well, we're assuming they somehow took care of the fleet. Taking over Ireland would be much easier than Britain itself, and would allow you to esentially starve them of US support and thus make your future invasion that much easier.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 07, 2014, 07:13:32 pm
Well, we're assuming they somehow took care of the fleet,

Assuming I had a million dollars, I could survive very comfortably without needing to work.  It's a pretty big assumption.

The Germans in no way shape or form had the ability to neutralize the British Home Fleet.  Even if half the home fleet disappeared and the Germans pulled a Pearl Harbor style success they wouldn't have enough strength to cross the channel and the Germans didn't even have torpedo bombers.  Even if you magicked the RAF out of existence and turned every Junker into a Japanese style torpedo bomber they wouldn't have enough planes.

And even if the Home Fleet starts taking losses, the British have other fleets.  And even if we ignore those there is the problem that the Germans had a "fleet" that was completely inadequate for landing forces where they were needed.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Comrade Shamrock on August 07, 2014, 09:58:44 pm
Well, we're assuming they somehow took care of the fleet. Taking over Ireland would be much easier than Britain itself, and would allow you to esentially starve them of US support and thus make your future invasion that much easier.
Operation Green called for the involvement of over 50,000 German troops. This outnumbered the Irish Army and would have been better equipped,better led,better trained and have a better doctrine. Ireland during World War Two was woefully underprepared. Ireland had a army and reserves were 13,000 reduced from 18,750 following the phoney war.  At the wars outbreak, most were poorly trained.

Out of 298 required anti-tank rifles we had 4, out of 32 anti tank guns we had none, out of a required 924 bren guns we had 82, we had 4 of our 72 searchlights. An additional 4 medium AA guns, 4 bofors guns and another additional 4 searchlights were acquired after the outbreak. Small arms ammunition were around half of the requirement and rounds for mortars, anti-aircraft and field artillery were 8% of what was required.

Our navy was not worth a damn. Two converted fishing trawlers whose military capabilities were worse than merchantmen and six unreliable and awkward PT boats. Our airforce at its height in the later part of the war was 43 planes of a various assortment.  Our situation was abysmal.

The greatest enemies of the Germans would face on the ground was the terrain, the weather (rain) and the poor road system. The Germans would enjoy quick and easy success in the opening days of such an invasion. The only serious resistance the Germans would receive would come from the North from British units stationed in Northern Irelnad. Planning for the defence of Ireland called for two British Divisions, 53rd Division and 61st Division to defend the Irish shores. RAF units have probably been brought over. The British made extensive plans to supply their troops. This is where the German invasion becomes problematic. The Germans now having advanced inland after being delayed by the poor transport system and Ireland's mountainous coast (Ireland is kind of like a bowl). They are now coming up against the much tougher and better supplied British troops. This would bog down any German any further advance into the Irish territory. The only possible problems with this  are political. There is still anti-British resentment from the War of Independence 1919-1921 which could lead to resistance to the presence of British troops on Irish soil. There is also the possibility of an IRA coup to seize power and welcome the German's but I don't think so as the these men were opposed by the majority of Ireland in the Civil War 1922-1923. Also if such a coup took place and the military joined them, they're in an even worse boat than the German's. They are more likely to be a hindrance than a help. Taking the German's valuable supplies or simply being poor allies like the Italians.

Now, the miracle that allowed this German army to land in Ireland without being stopped by the Royal Navy has worn off and they will now proceed to blow the bejeesus out of any German ship in the waters surrounding Ireland and Britain. This would probably cut German resupply and reinforcement to a trickle if not halt it entirely. This German army is now present in a country that could not provide the means for an army almost one fifth of its size. It has no domestic arms industry, so the Germans can't press gang the factories to produce supplies for them as there is not even equipment or raw materials which could possibly be used to replace the German equipment and munitions. There will probably an abundant source of food so they won't starve at least. Now the German's only hope is British supplies which will probably be well protected as the British know how valuable as it is the German's only viable option other than surrender. The German's will probably not capture the supplies.

The German army now having expended the majority of its munitions, has two options surrender or retreat one is viable, the other is not. Surrender is their viable option. Retreat is an option but they have nowhere to go. Back to the coast, where then? Home to Germany. Nope the Royal navy is in the way. Grab the furniture and trees to build makeshift rafts and float to friendly land and be too numerous for the navy to destroy. Not many will make it.

So what have the Germans accomplished. They have lost 50,000 men and their equipment gallivanting about in Ireland. They have handed the ports of Ireland neatly into allied hands. This will help Allied ASW and offer greater security to Allied convoys in the trans Atlantic journey. It also opens makes Irish agriculture more open to the Allies, lessening food shortages and raising public morale. I'm sorry but I don't see anyway the German's really benefit from this.

You forget that six counties in the North belong to England and they have military bases too. The British are not unaware of Ireland and they have viewed Ireland as the backdoor to the England for the past few hundred years. This is not exactly unexpected and has always been a British fear.

I'm very sorry if this came across as too harsh but there are very wild things people say ''what if'' and ''but'' to. I simply drive home the point that it was in no way feasible or possible outside of a game.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on August 08, 2014, 02:02:56 am
Indeed, the invasion of Britain is mostly unfeasible.

But for other what if's. What if the battle of the beams never happened (or didn't happen as soon as it did) because the British failed to detect anything in their early tests.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Beams
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 08, 2014, 01:50:12 pm
If you force the strait once, you have probably dealt with their fleet, and can set up a blockade of the Rock while it wont fall because of Spanish support, you will have fairly free access to the Mediterranean.
The allied European fleets would do all in their power to never engage the American fleet directly, doing so would be suicide. So expect submarines everywhere launching missiles into the American fleet as it tries to move past heavily fortified coasts in extremely visible fashions under enemy air cover. More than possible, but risky, and if the American fleet succeeds what's the plan then? Move into the Mediterranean to do what?

New scenario! How would WWII been different if Hitler hadn't turned to bombing UK cities, and instead kept bombing strategic targets, and followed it up with an amphibious invasion of England?
Best case scenario absolutely for Hitler is that he manages to eliminate or else keep the Royal Navy away from the UK with overwhelming air superiority and drums up support in Britain for his cause so the British people do not fight Nazi occupation or cannot effectively fight Nazi occupation. In that scenario the commonwealth continues fighting, though now America no longer has a convenient staging point for a landing and so Nazi Germany no longer spends vast wealths of resources on building a useless Atlantic wall and focuses fully on the USSR. Maybe these extra resources help Nazi Germany defeat the USSR but in all likelihood it just ends with all of Europe beyond the channel falling under the fold of the USSR.
Worst case scenario and the Nazis bloody themselves against a population endeavored to enacting a suitably grizzly price on enemy soldiers and Nazi Germany falls sooner. Think of Japan, even after being bombed into oblivion they were determined to give invaders the finger.

If the us would invade Europe, would the Europeans, saying they lose the UK to the US, re-purpose whats left of Hitlers Atlantic wall?
Barring what's still in good condition probably not. It was a waste of resources then and is even less effective today. In the modern age fortifications are built to be destroyed and lack the mobility to flee.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 09, 2014, 02:13:21 pm
New topic, a Belgium which allowed Imperial Germany in WW1 military access through their lands.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 09, 2014, 02:43:04 pm
I think the Germans would've taken Paris. The Brits still would've joined, but it would give the Germans that much more time and that much less resistance.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 09, 2014, 03:57:29 pm
I still find it baffling that Germany has used the same attack-through-Belgium plan both in WW1 and in WW2, and it still caught everybody with surprise.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Digital Hellhound on August 09, 2014, 04:14:51 pm
To be fair, in WW2 the route of attack wasn't really much of a surprise - the speed and new way of fighting was.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on August 09, 2014, 04:35:35 pm
Still, the Maginot line wasn't on the Belgian border.

New what if: What if Friedrick III didn't contract throat cancer and a liberal, pro-British Kaiser was in charge from 1888 onward?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 09, 2014, 05:00:42 pm
I still find it baffling that Germany has used the same attack-through-Belgium plan both in WW1 and in WW2, and it still caught everybody with surprise.
They knew that Germany was in all likelihood going to go through Belgium to avoid the Maginot line, they just didn't expect the Germans to move that many tanks through a forest and do it with such speed that the allies would not be able to respond, hence why the BEF got stuck in Belgium with Frenchmen.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 09, 2014, 06:01:49 pm
I still find it baffling that Germany has used the same attack-through-Belgium plan both in WW1 and in WW2, and it still caught everybody with surprise.
And then later on, Battle of the Bulge.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 09, 2014, 06:34:43 pm
I still find it baffling that Germany has used the same attack-through-Belgium plan both in WW1 and in WW2, and it still caught everybody with surprise.

They didn't catch anyone with surprise either time.  French military plans prior to WWI generally assumed an attack through Belgium.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on August 10, 2014, 01:07:10 am
Besides, remember, in the second and first world war, Belgium wasn't exactly undefended. It's just that our fortresses always were a war behind.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 10, 2014, 03:25:02 am
Cant comment on other forces, but I am under the impression that the BEF was horribly ill-equipped to fight against armour. Not much in the way of anti-tank weaponry that would stop the German tanks, and no real plan of how to deal with massed armour formations.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: celem on August 10, 2014, 04:37:53 am
Yarrr.

Playing for Europe and assuming non-nuclear through MAD. 

Feign secession by the United Kingdom to the USA.  My call is that provided this crazy moment of war has erupted somewhat spontaneously both the USA and British civilians (who you don't tell) buy that.
USA's logical move is to turn the UK into a FOB.  Its pretty much tailor-made to harass the snot out of Europe, worked fine vs the 3rd Reich.
But since you are playing double-agents with countries you sucker-punch them when they go to setup.

Have Americans read 1984?

Truthfully, I thought on this about an hour and can see no way to invade the mainland US without WMDs.  An armed civilian population with the particular cultural streaks of patriotism the Americans have makes that a really really hideous concept.

Seriously though, in a straight up dustup its pretty American.  Even without nukes.  Air superiority is king, high-ground has been since war was war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Daonitre on August 10, 2014, 10:54:47 am
OK, so it totally trailed off by page 7 but I read more than intended in the first place. This will be my longest post ever.... so I hope you enjoy sarcastic spoilers. :)

Spoiler: From Page 2 (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: From Page 3 (click to show/hide)

I love Page 4. Nothing funny here... I just love it.

Page 6 made me want to play World of Tanks, by the end of page 7 I was ready to go reinstall...
Spoiler: Speaking of which (click to show/hide)

Aaaand not quite as long as I'd thought it'd be. I may be back for pages 8-12 later on. Or not.. I have DF2014 and lots of TV to keep up on. :)

Oh right, don't just respond but reply... hmm... 'Murka wins.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 10, 2014, 11:41:40 am
Cant comment on other forces, but I am under the impression that the BEF was horribly ill-equipped to fight against armour. Not much in the way of anti-tank weaponry that would stop the German tanks, and no real plan of how to deal with massed armour formations.

People seem to have drawn the conclusion from Blitzkrieg that tanks win wars on their own.  They dont.  Tanks capture high value targets very quickly.  But in this case the high value target is like half the country.

While the British Expeditionary Force had lost most of its antitank equipment in France, that didn't mean they were completely helpless against tanks, just that they had a smaller number of anti-tank guns then they normally had.  And the German order of battle only called for about 500 tanks (4th and 7th panzer divisions).  Even that is optimistic given the... tenuous logistical situation.  In fact the Germans are gonna be just as SOL on the anti-tank equipment front as the Brits and the Brits would have a pretty heavy advantage in tank numbers.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 10, 2014, 12:42:51 pm
The main thing what makes blitzkrieg possible is motorized and mechanized infantry. Tanks are more of an addition for busting open high-defense targets.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 10, 2014, 12:47:17 pm
Not really, look at the OOB for Poland, the classic Blitzkrieg: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_order_of_battle_for_Operation_Fall_Weiss

Not a whole lot of motorized infantry and no mechanized infantry to speak of.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 11, 2014, 03:19:25 pm
I think we should move away from modern wars, and move back towards ancient, or medieval warfare.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 11, 2014, 04:07:35 pm
We were just talking about the battle of Hastings a few pages back. And the Mongol hordes. Uh, okay. What would have happened if the Romans had won the Battle of Teutoberg forest? That or they had a competent enough governor so that the battle never happened.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 11, 2014, 06:02:17 pm
Roman expansion eastwards, probably as far as the Elbe as it forms such a nice defensible frontier along with the Danube, but I give them a slim chance of getting as far as the Vistula, and no chance of getting to the Dneiper. I doubt the ability of the Romans to push further - overland supply would be a horror to pull off, and I don't think their seamanship would be up to supply over water the long way around via the Baltic
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 11, 2014, 06:35:47 pm
Indeed, which is why I don't think they'd even make it that far.  Even after Teutoburg, Tiberius launched a series of decisive military actions just five years after under the general who would gain the agomen "Germanicus" for his victories.  By 16, the Germanic alliance under Arminius had been devastated, and only the decision of the Emperor not to annex Germanicus' gains prevented a third campaign from coming to pass.  The Elbe is not a very good frontier from a Roman perspective; the Rhine, with its origin in Helvetica and breadth of span, was ideal for the purpose of supplying Legion bases along the Limes Germanicus.  The Elbe, by contrast, would have required a massive overland trek through woodlands filled with hostile tribes to reach, for extremely questionable gains - the Germanic hinterland was just that, a hinterland with little economic worth.  Limited Roman colonization in the area was apparently lackluster and incomplete, as far as I can tell.  Raid it, put pliant chiefs in place over the tribes, and maybe nibble a bit around the edges, but a full-scale integration of the entirety of the province into Rome feels a bit difficult.  Perhaps, at the largest, I think we might see something that reaches the Weser (with an overland portage being from the Rhine via the Main), but even that might be a bit unstable. 

Perhaps the most significant consequence of a victory at Teutoburg would have an extension of that overstretch to eventually be cut off in some Varian defeat, as well as a lack of action to strength the Limes Germanicus into a cohesive fortification chain (since there would be no apparent need to do so) until such a crisis occurs.  If they do reach the Weser, they'll almost certainly eventually be forced to regroup on the Rhine-Iller-Danube line again by the third century, due to much the same reason as they did historically - barbarian pressures under a decaying military/state apparatus. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 11, 2014, 07:15:27 pm
We were just talking about the battle of Hastings a few pages back. And the Mongol hordes. Uh, okay. What would have happened if the Romans had won the Battle of Teutoberg forest? That or they had a competent enough governor so that the battle never happened.

Rome having a slightly more defensible border wouldn't really help them at all.

The Romans weren't militarily incapable of holding things together:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Catalaunian_Plains
Even 15 years before the fall of the western empire they had tons of power under competent leadership properly:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majorian
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The problems with the empire were within.  The plagues caused a population decline and the civic life collapsed in the face of a powerful aristocracy controlling the serfs (thanks Constantine!).  The western empire just kept dividing itself, even at the very end the remnants were divided between two rival emperors and several autonomous governors.

Unless the population decline and serfdom never happened the barbarian migrations into the empire were inevitable.  This wasn't necessarily the doom of the empire, they assimilated many people successful and many of the barbarian tribes were happy to be loyal subjects of a strong Rome, as Majorian showed.  What's really important is if Rome can keep things together politically, keeping a competent bureaucracy to check the inevitable stupid emperors and keeping proper control of the provinces so that the empire doesn't suffer civil wars every couple decades.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 18, 2014, 12:27:10 pm
New what if: What if Friedrick III didn't contract throat cancer and a liberal, pro-British Kaiser was in charge from 1888 onward?
This. Is an Anglo-German alliance plausible? What would German navy policy have looked like? How does the web of alliances change? (Do we get a war of a French-Russian alliance vs. Britain and the German-speaking monarchies?)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on August 18, 2014, 12:54:31 pm
Re: The Teutoberg Forest, those were my thoughts as well. Rome was screwed up enough internally that winning a battle there wouldn't have prevented an eventual collapse. All the same structural problems would still exist. If anything, they'd last a bit longer against barbarian incursions with the new frontier, but eventual collapse was inevitable.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 18, 2014, 01:38:09 pm
Anglo-German alliance would screw the France hard. Being surrounded from sea and from land... ouch.

Russian Empire vs. Anglo-German alliance would probably look like some combination of WW1 and WW2, but most likely Germans would go with their Lenin plan, destroying RE from within.

I guess after that the alliance would break apart and the massive war for colonies would start.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 18, 2014, 01:45:40 pm
If an Anglo-German alliance actually happened, it would be devastating to France and Russia, as you say.  That said, Britain still wouldn't sit idly by while Germany launched a preemptive attack on France via Belgium, if the run-up to World War 1 remained unaltered; even in 1875, while Bismark was at his peak ascendancy and before Anglo-German relations took a serious downturn under Wilhelm, Britain sternly warned Germany against any such preemptive attacks to prevent France's rapid recovery after the Franco-Prussian War (the War in Sight crisis).  Bismark would probably get along even more poorly with Frederick III than with Wilhelm II due to the former's much-presumed liberal tendencies, and the former probably wouldn't be much more assertive in bringing the General Staff to heel.  I think the best Germany can hope for is British armed neutrality, with British domestic opinion gradually turning against Germany due to concerns about Germany's successes in France combined with French propaganda. 

That said, I suspect that Frederick III would not grant Austria-Hungary the blank cheque to begin with, so whether the war begins on schedule is highly questionable to start with. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Aeax on August 18, 2014, 11:50:50 pm
I've read from the first post, and since we're no longer restricted to talking about American invading Europe anymore, how about a possible Roman Empire vs Han Empire? I'm interested in a comparison between these two seemingly parallel nations.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 19, 2014, 09:13:17 am
Way too far away from each other. Such a war would be a logistic nightmare for both sides.
Plus they're not really parallel: The Chinese empire was ethnically homogenous (kinda), and had a completely different inner structure. Plus their way of selecting officials was very different from the Roman one.

England did swing politics for many centuries - they probably wouldn't allow a fundamental alteration of the status quo in Western Europe. Perhaps the Great War would be just another regular one, as France and Germany cease hostilities after a few weeks or months. But the Russian front, that's interesting: England and Russia were geopolitical rivals in many places...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 19, 2014, 09:19:28 am
The Chinese empire was ethnically homogenous (kinda), and had a completely different inner structure.

Not really.  Linguistically similar but even after hundreds of years of suppressing ethnicity, there's still a lot of minorities in China today.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 19, 2014, 10:15:29 am
And even linguistically, there are so many different dialects of Chinese (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_varieties_of_Chinese) that people from other ends of China may only barely understand each other.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 19, 2014, 12:43:34 pm
They may if they write it down: The Chinese writing system is the same all over China.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Puzzlemaker on August 19, 2014, 02:49:08 pm
China has only been unified through a lot of effort and wars.  Its quite impressive, really.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on August 20, 2014, 05:16:25 am
It's more of a diplomatic than a military question, but anyway: in 1954, a year after Stalin's death, the USSR applied to join NATO (http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/molotovs-proposal-the-ussr-join-nato-march-1954). Western governments rejected the proposal. In response, a year later the Warsaw Treaty Organization was created. It was more known in the West as the Warsaw Pact.

What would happen if the Soviet Union was allowed to become a NATO member state? Would the Cold War subside or would the mutual animosity between the USSR and the USA tear the organization apart?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 20, 2014, 12:28:18 pm
That's way too open ended to answer.  The USSR NATO bid was after the iron curtain had clamped down on revolutions in eastern Europe and after the Korean war.  For that to end you are basically talking about a negotiated end to the Cold War which means both sides would need to massively change their outlooks in a way that neither side was interested in doing.  It's such a big divergence that one answer isn't possible.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: darkflagrance on August 20, 2014, 09:42:32 pm
I've read from the first post, and since we're no longer restricted to talking about American invading Europe anymore, how about a possible Roman Empire vs Han Empire? I'm interested in a comparison between these two seemingly parallel nations.

I'm reminded of the outcome of the Byzanto-Persian wars: both empires, nearly evenly matched, crippled each other via wars and plagues until both powers were vulnerable to a newly emergent outside force: Islam. You have to specify leaders and time periods for each empire, because the nature of the military and administration for both Han and Rome changed dramatically over the centuries as their rulers learned to bureaucracy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 26, 2014, 04:33:34 am
Let's fire this up again: The US states against each other. What alliances would form? How would the war end?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 26, 2014, 04:43:07 am
The Dakotas and Manitoba win.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 26, 2014, 04:44:14 am
The north/south divide still seems pretty clear to me. As for probable outcome... well, that depends which side is "legitimate" and can retain control of the majority of the US army, air force and navy. I suspect that would be the "northern" faction.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Darvi on August 26, 2014, 05:04:46 am
Nooo, he means a Senate brawl.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 26, 2014, 05:08:50 am
Nooo, he means a Senate brawl.
Depends on the amount of nanomachines.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 26, 2014, 05:29:43 am
The non-voting delegates from the House of Representatives storm in with lead pipes and chains to finally establish themselves into the US Senate.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sindain on August 26, 2014, 07:07:58 am
Puerto Rico wins and becomes the new capital.

And they still wouldn't be able to vote.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on August 26, 2014, 09:25:48 am
Puerto Rico wins and becomes the new capital.

And they still wouldn't be able to vote.
And D.C. laughs in derision. 

The Dakotas and Manitoba win.
North Dakota for third-largest nuclear power. ^_^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on August 26, 2014, 09:58:16 am
Democratics would get Canadian and honestly possibly Mexican backing?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 26, 2014, 10:27:57 am
European, too. I could see the EU taking New England's side - they're the most similar to Europe.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on August 26, 2014, 12:26:16 pm
So who would back the republicans?
Other than PMC's- I think the south would win a cash-war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 26, 2014, 12:34:01 pm
Russia.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on August 26, 2014, 12:36:22 pm
Why? Liberal-controlled America is the fastest track to digital socialism.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 26, 2014, 12:37:23 pm
Putin ain't no socialist, and certainly not a digital one - but he'd get right along with all the rednecks who hate Europe. IIRC he was buddies with Bush...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on August 26, 2014, 12:50:07 pm
Something something stupid and tractable.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on August 26, 2014, 02:32:42 pm
Puerto Rico wins and becomes the new capital.

And they still wouldn't be able to vote.
And D.C. laughs in derision. 

The Dakotas and Manitoba win.
North Dakota for third-largest nuclear power. ^_^

And with surprising amounts of industrial capability, oil reserves, ample farmland, land features that lend themselves to hidden military features . . .

Just sayin, any state that has all of it's major cities more or less equidistant *and* in straight lines? They gotta be well organized.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Darvi on August 26, 2014, 02:38:26 pm
Putin ain't no socialist, and certainly not a digital one - but he'd get right along with all the rednecks who hate Europe. IIRC he was buddies with Bush...
Russia is also ashining example of American right-wing values.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 26, 2014, 03:08:53 pm
But then, who's the shining example of American left-wing values?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Mictlantecuhtli on August 26, 2014, 03:15:44 pm
Let's fire this up again: The US states against each other. What alliances would form? How would the war end?

Isn't there a strategy game with exactly this scenario? Like.. Supreme Ruler 2020? I remember places like Arkansas, Kansas, etc being overpowered due to the game placing the real military bases in moderately real spots. Making random places in the midwest powerhouses, because they have relatively huge military detachments compared to other states. Texas/California/New York obviously being the superpowers [if Texas doesn't go to war with Mexico immediately, that is] and forming their own blocs. The midwest could become a mongol horde of its own terrifying form, though, depending on how the states fight eachother. Kinda like fallout lore explicitly states it devolves into.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 26, 2014, 03:18:15 pm
But then, who's the shining example of American left-wing values?

Canada.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 26, 2014, 03:47:15 pm
But then, who's the shining example of American left-wing values?

Canada.
And Europe. I could honestly see volunteers coming over to finally be able to shoot at Americans :D
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 27, 2014, 04:38:32 am
Let's fire this up again: The US states against each other. What alliances would form? How would the war end?

Isn't there a strategy game with exactly this scenario? Like.. Supreme Ruler 2020? I remember places like Arkansas, Kansas, etc being overpowered due to the game placing the real military bases in moderately real spots. Making random places in the midwest powerhouses, because they have relatively huge military detachments compared to other states. Texas/California/New York obviously being the superpowers [if Texas doesn't go to war with Mexico immediately, that is] and forming their own blocs. The midwest could become a mongol horde of its own terrifying form, though, depending on how the states fight eachother. Kinda like fallout lore explicitly states it devolves into.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shattered_Union
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 27, 2014, 04:57:41 am
And Europe. I could honestly see volunteers coming over to finally be able to shoot at Americans :D
That sounds about as fun as trying to poke a rabid orca underneath the ocean waves with a big stick expecting honey and money in return. Of your own volition.
Why?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 27, 2014, 05:21:07 am
Ill-conceived stereotypes of manliness and honor, I guess. Also political idealism. That last one worked in Spain, at least.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 27, 2014, 09:21:53 am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shattered_Union

Big disappointment that one.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 27, 2014, 09:24:10 am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shattered_Union

Big disappointment that one.
Yeah, I think that was the game that has refused to launch on my previous computer at all. 3.0 shaders and Intel's integrated graphics chips  don't mesh together too well. >:(
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Mictlantecuhtli on August 27, 2014, 09:44:21 am
It was definitely a Supreme Ruler, just not sure exactly which one.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on August 27, 2014, 09:49:16 am
2020
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on August 27, 2014, 10:17:42 am
Yeah, I think that was the game that has refused to launch on my previous computer at all. 3.0 shaders and Intel's integrated graphics chips  don't mesh together too well. >:(

You didn't miss out on much.  The AI cheated so blatantly that the only strategy was to abuse quirks in the system to level the playing field.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on August 27, 2014, 10:32:14 am
Hah, iirc Shogun 2 in legendary difficulty just quadrupled AI income and build speed because it cbf programming more difficult bots.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on August 27, 2014, 11:17:25 am
Pretty much every strategy game ever does something like that though, tbh. Civ3 was a blatant and disappointing example - instead of giving you harder or easier opponents, the difficulty levels changed core game mechanics. Playing on the 3rd difficulty level gave a level playing field - anything above that stacked things in the AI favour, and below in your favour.

[/derail]
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 27, 2014, 11:26:16 am
[derail]

Heh, I remember I could not defeat the AI on even a lowest difficulty level because I always given in to the AI demands.

[/derail]
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 28, 2014, 02:03:47 pm
Isn't there that one game quote about designing difficulties around making sure the player doesn't know how much the AI is cheating?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on August 28, 2014, 02:34:08 pm
It's because the real quality AI is not suitable for normal gamers. I've seen papers showing that when some company decided to implement a good non-cheating AI in it's game the play-testers started crying on devforums telling them that it cheats and is unpredictable. But all it did was using it's forces in an optimized way. They had to intentionally dumb the AI so that it would make exaggerated moves which were highly predictable.

Have you ever seen a good character AI in MUGEN in action?

also [/derail]
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on August 28, 2014, 03:05:49 pm
Something something top level AI in street-fighter or something.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 28, 2014, 03:21:24 pm
I've seen papers showing that when some company decided to implement a good non-cheating AI in it's game the play-testers started crying on devforums telling them that it cheats and is unpredictable.
Casuals ruin Fun D:<
[/derail]


New question: Revolution revolution hardmode; if France didn't support America would its monarchy have survived and what would the consequences be? A native American state? A British Empire that blobs its way across the world? A French Empire still led by aristocrats instead of competent autocrats?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on August 28, 2014, 03:27:35 pm
A british empire that blobs its way across the world is a safe bet, since that is what actually happened despite losing the 13 colonies. The world stopped being a british blob only in the WW II aftermath.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: RedKing on August 28, 2014, 03:30:51 pm
I've seen papers showing that when some company decided to implement a good non-cheating AI in it's game the play-testers started crying on devforums telling them that it cheats and is unpredictable.
Casuals ruin Fun D:<
[/derail]


New question: Revolution revolution hardmode; if France didn't support America would its monarchy have survived and what would the consequences be? A native American state? A British Empire that blobs its way across the world? A French Empire still led by aristocrats instead of competent autocrats?

Fire up EUIV and run a Monte Carlo simulation.

Also, now you have me wanting to create a hybrid rhythm/political game called France France Revolution. Where you have to perform complex double-jump steps to avoid the guillotine.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Elfeater on August 28, 2014, 04:25:27 pm
On the topic of the States all at war, I hate to say it, but my money would be on Texas. Oil, guns, a militant separatist sentiment.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 09, 2014, 02:21:19 pm
Minor necro, but:
Apparently, I've only now saw the glaring hole in that article (http://www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm):
"The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area."

The fifth article doesn't actually legally forces the NATO members to help the attacked country with armed forces.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on September 09, 2014, 02:34:08 pm
That's been discussed extensively in German newspapers.

The mutual defense clause in the EU contracts is more hardcore, though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 09, 2014, 02:51:20 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 09, 2014, 03:00:07 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?
Turkey.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Glloyd on September 09, 2014, 03:42:16 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?

Russia.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on September 09, 2014, 04:52:09 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?

NATO.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on September 09, 2014, 05:14:31 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?
England. They traditionally win when there's war on the continent.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on September 09, 2014, 05:22:52 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?
Everyone who didn't participate in that war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Morrigi on September 09, 2014, 10:35:49 pm
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?
Everyone else.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 10, 2014, 12:42:16 am
NATO attacks itself and mutually defends itself from itself, who wins?

A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 10, 2014, 01:36:47 am
No one, especially if nukes are fired.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: ggamer on September 12, 2014, 07:20:25 pm
ggamer's thinking leads to a new topic for AGG!

So whenever the topic would come up between me and my speaking partner, we would agree that, while NATO's actions in the middle east during the Cold War were reprehensible, they might have been the only succesful course available at the time.

Given the knowledge of the time (which precludes knowledge of the societal unrest we know was happening in the USSR at the time), were NATO's actions in the Middle East the right course? Which actions would have been better?

I suppose "leave it the fuck alone" is an option, but remember the knowledge clause!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 12, 2014, 10:33:05 pm
I don't think it can be answered without something very simple: which actions?  Giving Mosaddeq the boot in Iran?  American support for the Shah's abdication and the effective surrender of power to Khomeini?  The Iran-Contra scandal?  Refusing to support Britain and France in the Suez Crisis?  Refusing to supply Israel with weapons in the 1950s?  Extending support to Israel from the late-1960s on?  Basically, there's a lot of scope for policies when you look at the entire Middle East for the entirety of the Cold War, not all of which were the product of a single, coherent policy.  Oh, a definition of the Middle East might also be helpful, as one could include gun-running to the Mujaheddin under definitions that include Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Actually, wait, no, sorry.  I misread the question as American policy; my apologies.  I suppose the question has to be revised slightly, though - which NATO policies?  NATO conducted no offensive military operations during the Cold War, regardless of its military planning and defensive wargaming (*cough* Able-Archer), and regardless how some of its constituent nations acted; the first such action was the Gulf War, where NATO forces were deployed for a few defensive operations in Turkey starting in 1991 (AWACs to Konya and a full air defense package along their southern border), but I don't think that's what you're referring to.  The first that was entered by NATO in full earnest after that was the Bosnian War, though, which is (a) not in the Middle East and (b) conclusively and decisively after the Cold War, so that's even less of a possibility. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: ggamer on September 13, 2014, 07:32:16 pm
Hmmm. Let's say, for our purposes, Pakistan is not but Afghanistan is included in the Middle East.

Allow me to elaborate. By "policies of NATO", I mean the collective actions concerning politics and economics of the big Western players in the Cold War, rather then the military actions of NATO as a whole (thank you, this is an important distinction to make). While the nitty gritty could be debated on between nations, I guess we could define their policy during the Cold War as this:

PRIMARY DIRECTIVE : Hinder communism in whatever way possible, no matter how destabilizing

SECONDARY DIRECTIVE: Protect commercial business interest whenever communism is not a danger

Actions like the Iranian revolution, Iran-Contra, Israel, etc., will almost always fall under one of these two directives.

Therefore, a more focused question to ask is:

PROTOTYPE//TRUE, MODIFY DIRECTIVES TO PROMOTE MAXIMUM EFFICIENCY//INCOME//SECURITY

(affirmative, this is not a question//inquiry. I just could not resist.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 21, 2014, 01:34:45 pm
Spillover from Europol thread: Russia vs Europe, how fucked is Russia?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 21, 2014, 02:08:25 pm
With nukes: very

Without nukes: the conflict is so low-key it doesn't change everything.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on September 21, 2014, 02:34:23 pm
On paper, Russia get stomped. WW2 shown that paper is weak against rock and WAR.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on September 21, 2014, 03:44:21 pm
Spillover from Europol thread: Russia vs Europe, how fucked is Russia?
Short-term, the Baltics are overrun, and Russia makes some quick advances into Poland and various other neighbors, while Kaliningrad is absorbed by the Europeans. There's a fuckton of outrage, and partisan acitivity in the occupied territories surge to levels not seen since WWII. Once Europe gets its act together, the Russians are pushed back out of these territories, with Belarus conquered at the same time (look at the position of the Baltics). St. Petersburg is taken swiftly, and once spring rolls around German tanks are once more rolling towards Russia, the key difference being that the tanks beside them are French and English.
If Turkey joins in, Russia is even more fucked - they have a decent enough and fairly large army.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 21, 2014, 04:25:12 pm
And I think we've learned by now not to try and invade in the winter.
Technological advances have made it so that an allied assault into Russian Winter is possible for as long as English tanks are capable of giving a European coalition warm beverages from their bivies.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 21, 2014, 04:57:58 pm
I am pretty sure that no one thinks that russia has enough  military power to beat EU countries. The interesting thing is that EU would also not be able to beat russia if the other scenario happens where EU is invading russia, even that EU as a whole is stronger.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on September 21, 2014, 05:14:42 pm
St. Petersburg, the second-most important industrial hub of Russia, is right behind the border. Moscow itself isn't too far away either. Most of the Russian population and industry is on this side of the Ural, which is - again - not too far away from the border (~1000km IIRC). The EU could probably invade successfully, but it would be far too costly - and the aftermath would make Iraq in 2003 look like a play-date.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 21, 2014, 05:25:58 pm
St. Petersburg, the second-most important industrial hub of Russia, is right behind the border. Moscow itself isn't too far away either. Most of the Russian population and industry is on this side of the Ural, which is - again - not too far away from the border (~1000km IIRC). The EU could probably invade successfully, but it would be far too costly - and the aftermath would make Iraq in 2003 look like a play-date.
Nahh, russian will just move the industrial eastwards, except if you attack now as a surprise and dont give them a year or two to move it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 21, 2014, 05:28:12 pm
Nahh, russian will just move the industrial eastwards, except if you attack now as a surprise and dont give them a year or two to move it.

Modern military industry is a little less mobile then it was in 1942.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 21, 2014, 05:37:56 pm
Nahh, russian will just move the industrial eastwards, except if you attack now as a surprise and dont give them a year or two to move it.

Modern military industry is a little less mobile then it was in 1942.
Is it? I am pretty sure it is actually now faster to move it compared to 42.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 21, 2014, 08:30:59 pm
Russia has a lot of means to secure air supremacy, however. Ranging from anti-air missile complexes (S-300/400/500, Pantzir, etc.) everywhere to the fighter/interceptor aircraft on par with the best Western ones.
wanna talk airfoce?

For starters Russia has no enough pilots and no enough modern aircrafts (not that MIG-35 is comparable to F-22 or F-35 or even modernized F-16)

Crap like su-27 and mig-31 is nothing but a target. Crap in what matters in modern warfare - electronics. Plus, repeating myself, Russia has no enough pilots to tackle NATO
Are you kidding? The MiG-35 is superior in performance to the F-16 in just about every way. It's faster, has a better thrust:weight ratio, has a greater rate of climb, has a greater flight ceiling, and was specifically defined to counter modern Western aircraft. The only problem is that there are only a handful of them.

Here is a huge misconception. Treating modern areal warware as WW2 one. In WW2 stuff like ceiling, rate of climb, speed mattered most. Nowadays we have a situation were all fighting goes beyond the visual range. That changes rules

To illustrate how "good" Russian aerospace industry really is. Look here - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sukhoi_Superjet_100
Who does high tech stuff?:

Flight control systems   Liebherr Aerospace (Lindenberg im Allgäu)    Germany
System software   Thales Group    France
Cockpit systems / Auxiliary gas turbine / Avionics   Honeywell / Thales Group    USA /  France


Russia can't produce their own flight control systems for a passenger jet. Know why? Because they need to actually compete on the market, unlike MIG-35 and PAK-FA were propaganda is enough to declare that aircrafts are among the best of the world.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 01:37:39 am
The thing is, invading Moscow and St Peterborough would likely trigger a nuclear strike, and no one wants that. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on September 22, 2014, 01:54:53 am
The thing is, invading Moscow and St Peterborough would likely trigger a nuclear strike, and no one wants that.
I disagree about 'likely': Any scenario where St. Petersburg and Moscow are invaded has Russia on the brink of total defeat anyway, and I trust the basic human decency of the politicians in charge enough that I don't believe they'd end life on this planet purely out of spite.
Doesn't mean I'd like to make that gamble, though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on September 22, 2014, 01:56:59 am
what is the purpose of nuclear weaponry other than destroying life

and no, threatening to destroy life does not count
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 02:05:10 am
End life? You guys overestimate the power of nukes.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on September 22, 2014, 02:07:57 am
End life? You guys overestimate the power of nukes.
Well, that's the popular perception of nuclear warfare, just like the popular perception of the aftermath of a nuclear plant failure being your friendly neighborhood nuclear desert.
'Becoming the next Hitler' would probably be more appropriate in that context.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on September 22, 2014, 02:08:26 am
on an "as we know it" basis, it can be destroyed, yes

basically forcing another ice age + loads of radiation would smack up the ecosystem quite badly, though it wouldn't make the earth all that inhabitable
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 02:15:02 am
Jeez, most of the planet wouldn't even notice it. You know we already detonated about 2500 nukes since 1945. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests#United_States_of_America) Granted a large number (probably a majority) were detonated underground, but still.

Russia got a large amount of tactical nukes for starter. And the minute they look like they're going to loose, I would expect them to shoot "nuclear warning shots" to force a peace on their terms. A small nukes in Brussels city center would only kills a few tens of thousands of people at most, a drop in the bucket if we're having a Russia-Europe war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 22, 2014, 02:37:35 am
Lets be honest. Open war is as likely as it was during coldwar

But little green man can work both ways. Weird armed groups may appear in Central Asia, or in Belarus. Then in Russia itself

I said it before and I am gonna repeat it again. If Kaliningrad oblast will get an offer to become Germany with all residents becoming German citizens
Same apply for Sakhalin and Japan. Karelia and Finland.

Russians enjoy doublethinking. They are proud of Russia and huge patriots... but given a chance to become a citizen of more prosperous country they will not reject it ever.

Then we have North Caucasus, Tatarstan, Bashkiria and many that may enjoy some support for independence movements

That war will be a hybrid war, while West gonna need to learn to practice that kind of war, they have more resources to wage it. That if China will remain neutral (It will not,  China needs Siberian territories)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 22, 2014, 03:50:13 am
basically forcing another ice age
Not really. Nuclear winter is not another ice age, it's a rerun of this event.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

Quote
+ loads of radiation would smack up the ecosystem quite badly, though it wouldn't make the earth all that inhabitable
2500 Test nukes have already been detonated. I don't think we have that many anymore. While, obviously, most tests were underground, that is offset by the fact that modern nukes create less fallout.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on September 22, 2014, 04:11:48 am
Quote
+ loads of radiation would smack up the ecosystem quite badly, though it wouldn't make the earth all that inhabitable
2500 Test nukes have already been detonated. I don't think we have that many anymore. While, obviously, most tests were underground, that is offset by the fact that modern nukes create less fallout.

Well, USA have about 7500 nukes, Russia has about 8000, and there is a 1000 or more among other countries. So yeah, we  have that many and many more in fact. Not that it would destroy ecosystem on any major scale, but it might happen with mass chemical/biological weapon activation.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 22, 2014, 04:58:33 am
The nuclear winter is not created just by random nuclear explosions, it is a specific effect which occurs when you strike modern cities with nuclear weapons; bitumen particles from the massive road networks go up and then they stay up there blocking the sunlight.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 22, 2014, 05:01:36 am
Still, it would just be a really cold year or 2 (with massive failing harvests), not a new ice age.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on September 22, 2014, 08:19:45 am
http://rt.com/politics/189604-russia-nuclear-2020-mistral/

Nuclear winter 2.0 now with better nukes. Russia will need to attack soon or face bankrupcy, though. There is no way that they renew their nuclear arsenal and modernize their army while under sanctions.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on September 22, 2014, 08:46:40 am
I do love how the first comment is "thanks Obama"
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: ggamer on September 22, 2014, 08:50:29 am
I do love how the first comment is "thanks Obama"

my fucking ice cream melted gee thanks obama
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 22, 2014, 08:55:44 am
Quote
"The formation of the technical basis for strategic nuclear forces is going at a faster rate, and in fact, we will renew not 70 percent of the SNF, but 100 percent," Rogozin told Rossiya TV channel.

Translation: not 70% of our current nuclear arsenal is a rusty scrap, but all 100%
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on September 22, 2014, 09:09:54 am
To be fair, the US isn't that much better off. Not tech wise tho, the US has rather horrible (or has had, not sure if they'd fixed them) human elements in the system.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on September 22, 2014, 09:36:04 am
That's one of my only fear : Nato armies had a pretty easy 40 years with no real large scale conventional operations against somewhat challenging ennemies. Plently of time for the structure to get rusty, officier to get complacent and commander to be choosen for how good they are at politics and not on the field.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 22, 2014, 10:11:23 am
That's one of my only fear : Nato armies had a pretty easy 40 years with no real large scale conventional operations against somewhat challenging ennemies. Plently of time for the structure to get rusty, officier to get complacent and commander to be choosen for how good they are at politics and not on the field.

When did nato have any large scale operation again challenging enemies in the past? In fact if you compare nato to other countries, it is the most aggressive block out there (and well the only one in way at the moment) that is constantly in war/occupation or some other form of warfare from directly NATO or its members. So from that  nato members  are the mostly trained and experienced with war, as that the thing they are doing all the time, so I am not sure how you can make that conclusion.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on September 22, 2014, 10:16:52 am
I said it's a fear, I don't said it's the most probable scenario. Putin could, if he have competent generals, have an army better prepeared for a war than nato countries, even if it's smaller and its equipement is worst. He is the attacker, so he may have the initiative. He won't have any kind of sustainability though, but no one expect a major conventional war to break out. It may give him an edge. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 22, 2014, 12:21:24 pm
To note: he probably has at least one competent general - the one who lead the 58th army onto Georgia, crushing it in about a week, despite the constrained terrain.

I mean, he allegedly managed to solve the communication problems by borrowing a satellite phone from a journalist. How inventive is that?

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 12:34:05 pm
Yeah, that had nothing to do with overwhelming numerical superiority, and the fact that the best element of Georgia's army were helping the US in Iraq.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on September 22, 2014, 12:38:08 pm
sheb, numerical advantage is fine, but if a country sends off important troops to go invade something it's the country's fault that they went off to invade things instead of i don't know not doing that
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 12:44:08 pm
So we agree that beating Georgia was hardly a measure of Russia's strategic acumen.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 22, 2014, 12:46:38 pm
Well, it is more indicative of Georgia trying to war on two fronts at the same time.

Also according to wikipedia this "overwhelming" numerical superiority was only 2:1...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 12:49:13 pm
Depend in what, Russia had overwhelming air superiority, which is pretty much an instant win.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 22, 2014, 12:52:36 pm
"Russian aircraft were frequently assessed as hostile by Russian troops and South Ossetians, and were fired upon before they could be accurately identified.[330] The air force flew 63 sorties on 8 August to support Russian ground troops.[331] Russia lost a total of six aircraft during the war: one Su-25SM, two Su-25BMs, two Su-24Ms and one Tu-22M3; three were shot down by friendly fire."

No, air superiority doesn't make an instant win. USA would have disbanded most of its ground troops otherwise.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 22, 2014, 12:53:16 pm
Depend in what, Russia had overwhelming air superiority, which is pretty much an instant win.
No. Air superiority doesn't mean it's a instant win. It depends from terrain mostly how much benefit from air superiority you can have.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 22, 2014, 01:20:11 pm
Well, ground troops are needed to occupy the country afterward, to take cities...  But to actually take down another army? Aircrafts all the way.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 22, 2014, 01:24:53 pm
Well, ground troops are needed to occupy the country afterward, to take cities...  But to actually take down another army? Aircrafts all the way.

Again not correct. Aircraft cannot destroy enemy military, I mean not most of it (in areas that are not just desert). They can give support and destroy some stationery defences but again depending from terrain desert/forests and similar it can have bigger/small effects. It has effect on the war, but thinking air superiority means wining and destroying majority of enemy forces with it is just not correct.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 22, 2014, 01:43:03 pm
Aircraft is way too costly to actually kill the opposing army. You lose more in fuel, repair and downed aircraft than the recieving sides loses in infantry and tanks, unless you're fighting against a severely technologically/doctrinally inferior opponent.

Just look at Serbia. They've managed to continue fighting, even using combat helicopters while the NATO forces were enjoying full air superiority. Only the ground invasion has managed to stop it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 22, 2014, 01:44:21 pm
Aircraft is way too costly to actually kill the opposing army. You lose more in fuel, repair and downed aircraft than the recieving sides loses in infantry and tanks, unless you're fighting against a severely technologically/doctrinally inferior opponent.

Just look at Serbia. They've managed to continue fighting, even using combat helicopters while the NATO forces were enjoying full air superiority. Only the ground invasion has managed to stop it.
Unfair comparison, everyone knows Serbian artillery is guided by GOD. Regular ground forces would get smashed, especially with the addition of drones.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on September 22, 2014, 02:10:02 pm
Air superiority alone doesn't win wars. But wars also can't be won without it.

With precision munitions and UAV's of today you can easily take out ground targets from a safe distance if the enemy doesn't have anything in the air to ward your own fliers off. And generally, fixed wing aircraft are usually best at striking exposed logistics to cripple the enemy fighting capabilities without actually hitting the troops themselves.

For more direct destruction CAS is used, usually in form of attack helicopters which are quick and nimble enough to get in, murderate an area and get the hell out before a response can be made. Of course they can't do that if the enemy has air cover or extensively prepared AA. But each can be dealt with, either with ground forces or specialised aircraft.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 22, 2014, 02:19:16 pm
Aircraft is way too costly to actually kill the opposing army. You lose more in fuel, repair and downed aircraft than the recieving sides loses in infantry and tanks, unless you're fighting against a severely technologically/doctrinally inferior opponent.

Just look at Serbia. They've managed to continue fighting, even using combat helicopters while the NATO forces were enjoying full air superiority. Only the ground invasion has managed to stop it.

I can talk a lot of what tactics where implemented in serbia war, some are.. very funny. Like peeing in bottles to use on blankets as lack of water and putting them  on artillery after firing so nato could not detect heat signature. Or making air plane decoys that cost around 100 euros that where hit with several missiles that cost each who known how much. Hiding in underground bunker, mountains tunnels and similar.

Also there was no massive use of helicopter or air planes except on beginning when two where shoot down (few that worked anyway). You could not get anything in air, as it would be shoot down very fast.

Its also funny that f-117a got hit from serbian PVO with rockets that are from old soviet era (from 1960s) and very old radar tech. But generally after two months of bombardment and most of infrastructure/industry destroyed, the actual military did not lost much (from equipment to men loses are very small) because of smart use of camouflage and terrain.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 22, 2014, 02:24:03 pm
Just look at Serbia. They've managed to continue fighting, even using combat helicopters while the NATO forces were enjoying full air superiority. Only the ground invasion has managed to stop it.

It's odd that you would cite a war won entirely with airpower and no troops on the ground as an example of the limitations of airpower.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 22, 2014, 02:32:52 pm
Just look at Serbia. They've managed to continue fighting, even using combat helicopters while the NATO forces were enjoying full air superiority. Only the ground invasion has managed to stop it.

It's odd that you would cite a war won entirely with airpower and no troops on the ground as an example of the limitations of airpower.

Umm, no, there where troops on the ground. UCK was fighting serb forces on kosovo with support form nato. And the war was won not because the country lost its military (as what was said from Sheb that air superiority can do) , but economic, infrastructure and nato was starting to bomb a lot of civilian targets also.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: gigaraptor487 on September 22, 2014, 03:33:40 pm
Scenario for you if you are interested.

The Nazi Soviet pact fails and there is no guarrantee that the USSR won't declare war If Nazi germany invades poland.

Thoughts on what would happen?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 22, 2014, 10:09:05 pm
Umm, no, there where troops on the ground. UCK was fighting serb forces on kosovo with support form nato.

NATO had no boots on the ground and NATO didn't rely on UCK troops to secure objectives.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Morrigi on September 23, 2014, 01:20:04 am
Umm, no, there where troops on the ground. UCK was fighting serb forces on kosovo with support form nato.

NATO had no boots on the ground and NATO didn't rely on UCK troops to secure objectives.
The point remains that there were, in fact, forces allied with NATO with boots on the ground.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 23, 2014, 01:59:23 am
But that doesn't contradict the upshot of my point which was that the conflict illustrated that airpower alone could win a war.  At best it's nitpicking.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Morrigi on September 23, 2014, 02:14:28 am
But that doesn't contradict the upshot of my point which was that the conflict illustrated that airpower alone could win a war.  At best it's nitpicking.
It wasn't only NATO's war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 23, 2014, 05:24:04 am
According to wikipedia, NATO claims 5,000 to 10,000 dead Serb soldiers, with other sources citing only a thousand. Still, if you want a better example, you could look at the first Gulf War: by the time the American tanks rolled in, there barely was an Iraqi army left. Granted, terrain was more open, but still.

The point is that if you have air supremacy, you're free to bomb the shit out of everything that move. It's clearly enough to destroy an army, or at least that army's infrastructure (although of course, you'd still need ground force to actually occupy the place).

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on September 23, 2014, 06:10:14 am
Not really. The massive air campaign against the Iraqi Army in the Gulf War is both an outlier and commonly overstated. Air supremacy does not have the capability to destroy an Army, as shown very specifically by the attempts of the Luftwaffe in WWII and especially the Gulf War, where despite being harried to hell and back, it was utter superiority in the technology, training, and strategy of treads in sand that buried the Republican Guard.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 23, 2014, 07:12:54 am
Umm, no, there where troops on the ground. UCK was fighting serb forces on kosovo with support form nato.

NATO had no boots on the ground and NATO didn't rely on UCK troops to secure objectives.
Doesnt matter where they nato troops or other troops. Your post that there where no ground troops is not correct. Albanian fighters with coordination and support of air had a objective of capturing few key points in kosovo so they could push back the serb military in which they failed.

But that doesn't contradict the upshot of my point which was that the conflict illustrated that airpower alone could win a war.  At best it's nitpicking.

You did not make any point just quoted a quote that answer Sheb  that made totally different point. The point that was made by Sheb is that air superiority means defeat and destruction of most military forces on ground. And that is exactly what didnt happened as the military was not destroyed or had any bigger casualties. Your point that air superiority can win wars is correct, but it highly depends what are objective of the war,  because serbia did not capitulate as a whole, and the terms that where made with resolution 1244 and forming of kfor with russian troops where thing that west and nato didnt want, but where willing to accept as the war was going for to long and did not bring military to crumble. Be sure if they intended to occupy whole territory that would not happen until military is destroyed or had been weakened a lot, and that can not be done from air.

According to wikipedia, NATO claims 5,000 to 10,000 dead Serb soldiers, with other sources citing only a thousand. Still, if you want a better example, you could look at the first Gulf War: by the time the American tanks rolled in, there barely was an Iraqi army left. Granted, terrain was more open, but still.

There where around 2.500  casulties  in nato bombing including cicvilian casulties and 12.500 wonded.  There is no better exmaple that air superiority can do very little than in kosovo war and that your assumption is just not correct. You can even look at vietnam war.
The point is that if you have air supremacy, you're free to bomb the shit out of everything that move. It's clearly enough to destroy an army, or at least that army's infrastructure (although of course, you'd still need ground force to actually occupy the place).

Air superiority is very important, as it will make a lot of ground operations easier, but it can not destroy army potential and its effectiveness depend extremely from terrain (and normally other factors). Saying you can bomb everything that moves is very naive and not knowing how generally military operation are done and what can be done with what and where.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 23, 2014, 07:18:22 am
Out of curiosity, where do you get your casualties numbers?

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: miljan on September 23, 2014, 07:53:41 am
Out of curiosity, where do you get your casualties numbers?
Mostly local official sources
This are the ones i found on news that are in english:
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/number-of-victims-of-nato-bombing-still-unknown
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/society.php?yyyy=2013&mm=03&dd=24&nav_id=85330
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 23, 2014, 10:19:18 am
Want to know how majority of Ukrainian armorer vehicles looks like?

Spoiler:  like that: (click to show/hide)

Don't trust Wikipedia numbers :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on September 23, 2014, 11:39:45 am
Want to know how majority of Ukrainian armorer vehicles looks like?

Spoiler:  like that: (click to show/hide)

Don't trust Wikipedia numbers :)
Photos of various Ukrainian vehicles on the frontline. I nicked the photos here (http://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/).
Spoiler: Ditto, with embrasures (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: XXI century's tachanka (click to show/hide)

Bonus:
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 23, 2014, 11:42:30 am
Not really. The massive air campaign against the Iraqi Army in the Gulf War is both an outlier and commonly overstated. Air supremacy does not have the capability to destroy an Army, as shown very specifically by the attempts of the Luftwaffe in WWII and especially the Gulf War, where despite being harried to hell and back, it was utter superiority in the technology, training, and strategy of treads in sand that buried the Republican Guard.

Bad example, the Luftwaffe had much less bombing capacity during the early war when it had air supremacy.  Aircraft production ramped up from thousands to ten thousands as the war went on and the bombers got much bigger payloads.

Nobody is saying that airpower guarantees victory everytime.  Just that sometimes it can be enough to win a war singlehandedly.  WWII wasn't one of those examples because the Allies didn't develop a large enough strategic bombing force to smother Germany until 1944 and by 1945 when they exhausted German air defenses there were already allied forces invading Germany itself.  But if the ground war hadn't ended things too fast there would have been a collapse of German production due to bombing.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 23, 2014, 11:48:37 am
Gotta love those improvised armored vehicles.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 23, 2014, 11:49:08 am
Also if the Luftwaffe had kept their bombing campaign to strategic and not civilian targets they would've overrun Britain and bombed her into submission.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 23, 2014, 12:04:54 pm
Ahah, those are great Guardian, nice find. :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 23, 2014, 12:07:33 pm
Also if the Luftwaffe had kept their bombing campaign to strategic and not civilian targets they would've overrun Britain and bombed her into submission.
"bombing into submission" thing literally never works. You cannot bomb people into obeying you without boots on the ground, and Germany would never had the capacity to invade the British Isles, not with the sheer amount of ships the UK had.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 23, 2014, 12:15:58 pm
Also if the Luftwaffe had kept their bombing campaign to strategic and not civilian targets they would've overrun Britain and bombed her into submission.
"bombing into submission" thing literally never works. You cannot bomb people into obeying you without boots on the ground, and Germany would never had the capacity to invade the British Isles, not with the sheer amount of ships the UK had.

The same problem is at play even now with the fight against terror. Yes we can just bomb their stuff, but to actually clear them out, you need boots on the ground.

Only thing though, as we learned from Iraq and somewhat from Afghanistan, having US boots on the ground only causes more problems than it resolves.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 23, 2014, 12:17:33 pm
Also if the Luftwaffe had kept their bombing campaign to strategic and not civilian targets they would've overrun Britain and bombed her into submission.

I think you fail to understand just how much smaller the airforces were at the time of the battle of Britain.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Mr. Strange on September 23, 2014, 02:37:19 pm
Want to know how majority of Ukrainian armorer vehicles looks like?

Spoiler:  like that: (click to show/hide)

Don't trust Wikipedia numbers :)
Photos of various Ukrainian vehicles on the frontline. I nicked the photos here (http://shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com/).
Spoiler: Ditto, with embrasures (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: XXI century's tachanka (click to show/hide)

Bonus:
Looks like they've played too much C:DDA.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 23, 2014, 03:29:12 pm
Also if the Luftwaffe had kept their bombing campaign to strategic and not civilian targets they would've overrun Britain and bombed her into submission.
I think you fail to understand just how much smaller the airforces were at the time of the battle of Britain.
You can't feed a war effort on carrots, less so an island of 50 million people. A Britain without coal, oil, food and munitions is not one that can fight.

Also if the Luftwaffe had kept their bombing campaign to strategic and not civilian targets they would've overrun Britain and bombed her into submission.
"bombing into submission" thing literally never works. You cannot bomb people into obeying you without boots on the ground, and Germany would never had the capacity to invade the British Isles, not with the sheer amount of ships the UK had.
Ok, people have misunderstood me. Bombing the British citizens merely made them support the war effort harder, I am referring to the attacks on convoys that would have taken place completely unmolested by the RAF.
[And ships do not win vs planes].
There are more things you can do with planes than Blitz everywhere.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 23, 2014, 03:39:44 pm
Dude, Britain had a lot of colonies at the time. They would have just moved the production facilities there. In fact, the backup plan for Hitler conquering the British Isles was to move the government to Canada and direct the war from there.

Also German aviation was pretty short-ranged (and in general was oriented onto supporting the land troops), and without carriers, it could never establish a total sea control anywhere more than 200-300 km away from the nearest airfield. You can't sinks ships if your planes cannot reach them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 23, 2014, 03:53:53 pm
Yeah, because if Germany establish a blockade, Britain will be able to move its industry oversea. Also, there is no way Britain could re-invade across the Atlantic.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 23, 2014, 04:09:02 pm
Dude, Britain had a lot of colonies at the time. They would have just moved the production facilities there. In fact, the backup plan for Hitler conquering the British Isles was to move the government to Canada and direct the war from there.
Haha, there is no way you'd be able to move shipyards and factories from Britain to Canada, Africa, India or Australia. Besides, it's a given that the British Empire would carry on fighting, it was even in Churchill's war speech. What's important here is that Britain would either starve and wilt or surrender. No more Western front of any sizeable capability.

Also German aviation was pretty short-ranged (and in general was oriented onto supporting the land troops), and without carriers, it could never establish a total sea control anywhere more than 200-300 km away from the nearest airfield. You can't sinks ships if your planes cannot reach them.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
German mid range bombers could make 1500 km and half that comfortably, if they kept bombing RAF radar, air fields, RN ports, shipyards and factories of all sorts they wouldn't even have to bomb the merchant marine, which is something they would definitely take the liberty of doing if they had air superiority (especially since they continued to bomb the merchant marine even without it).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 23, 2014, 04:35:44 pm
Sealion is kind of...oh, what's the term for it.  I can't recall...at any rate, it was never practical.  The practical impact of the attacks on British airfields and strategic targets is significant, but the effect of the change of policy to terror strikes is a bit overstated.  The RAF consistently had the benefits of both numbers and the home field (with attendant consequences on those pilots forced to bail out), as well as technological benefits.  Depending on your source (Overy, et. al.), pilot numbers were actually growing throughout this period, as were the number of airplanes actually in the air, in spite of strikes against factories and airfields, with the exception of the peak period in September.  Even during the worst of this period, when 13 airfields were struck, only two were put out of commission for any length of time (that is, more than a few hours), and precisely one Sector Station was shut down at all (two hours).  However, this period ended not just with the change in target priorities, but also by the shift to night raids due to the severe losses the Germans were also taking in their daylight attacks.  In other words, if Germany had maintained their existing target priorities and daylight raids for maximum efficiency, they would also have very efficiently depleted their own aerial forces. 

Also, it's been suggested that they could simply go after the convoys in greater strength.  In addition to the range issues brought up by Sergarr, this is actually exactly what was done - German airplanes were used in not only direct bombing, but were even more critical in scouting for targets that could be relayed to German submarines in the area of operations since they could do this without ever coming into range of the escorts themselves, such as the Flowers which were armed solely to face off against both aerial and submarine foes.  In fact, the aerial situation became bad enough that the Allies actually developed a handful of specialized Hurricane launch catapults for merchantmen (termed CAM, for Catapult Aircraft Merchantman) to combat this, even though each launch would essentially mean writing off the Hurricane due to a lack of places to land the thing.  It's also critical to remember that in many respects, the best naval bombers were also specialized roles for aircraft; you can't just slap a torpedo on the bottom of a Stuka and call it good (though they actually did build a thousand Ju 87R which more or less did precisely that by using drop tanks to boost their range, not to mention the Ju 88 and the He 111J which was aborted due to manpower requirements).  The critical issue blocking German naval bombing was their early disinterest in torpedoes (resolved only after 1942; literally, monthly German torpedo production at the start of World War 2 could be counted on one hand), not to mention the significant land-based pressures placed on the Luftwaffe caused by the launch of Operation Barbarossa in the East - Hitler could not allow the Red Army time to recover from the effective devastation of its officer and NCO corps, not if he wanted to fulfill what was the entire purpose of his ambitions in the first place, and detaching the entire Luftwaffe to go haring off after some ancillary foe trapped on their islands would have had significant strategic consequences. 

That said, if there was some ASB intervention that resulted in a German conquest of the British Isles, it would have significant practical consequences.  Moving the production facilities out of Britain would not have been as practical as the Soviet transfer of industry beyond the Urals due to the lack of railroads or land transportation connecting Canada to the UK, but would not have been completely dire so long as American industry remained beyond German reach.  Political continuity would have been maintained, certainly; while the Royal family spoke strongly about never evacuating Britain (most famously, the Queen-consort's statement that "her children would refuse to leave her, she would refuse to leave her husband, and her husband would never leave Britain", if I recall the paraphrased quote properly), I suspect that if the situation reached the point where both London and the Plan Yellow evacuation points fell to invading forces, they would have been put on the first boat to Canada even if Churchill literally had to personally frog-march each one of them on.  Moreover, they would very likely successfully evacuate the bulk of the British government proper, including Churchill himself (again, by force if necessary).  The major consequences of a fall of the Home Isles would have been the fact that it would have denied the Americans (once they entered the war; I do not believe this would have been altered by a Fall of Britain scenario) a ready staging base just off Festung Europa.  American staging would have relied far more heavily on Iceland (the Greenland-Iceland route that became so essential to naval planning during the Cold War, but in World War 2 could not be covered by land-based aircraft until 1943) and the Azores, with Operation Torch securing preponderance; either southern France (Dragoon) or Italy (Husky, etc.) would have become the primary axis for invasion due to their proximity to staging facilities in North Africa, in spite of the unfavourable terrain, or else the liberation of Britain would have become the first priority, with consequences for the advance further on into northern France. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 23, 2014, 04:39:59 pm
Sealion is kind of...oh, what's the term for it.  I can't recall..

Amphibious landing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion Pretty much Germany's version of the D-Day landings at Normandy and the operations from there.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 23, 2014, 04:42:26 pm
Culise, since you seen to know about the subject, how would a successful Sealion have influenced the North African war?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 23, 2014, 04:49:09 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion Pretty much Germany's version of the D-Day landings at Normandy and the operations from there.
Except shitter. Disappointed they didn't try, it would've ended the war so much sooner. What if you go the Mythbusters approach though; what would it take for Sealion to work? How many flying tanks would the Germans have to conjure up from thin air?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 23, 2014, 04:51:50 pm
There is also one other factor that is being left out here, Americas involvement in the war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 23, 2014, 05:10:38 pm
You can't feed a war effort on carrots, less so an island of 50 million people. A Britain without coal, oil, food and munitions is not one that can fight.

I dont disagree with you here I just dont see how it addresses the fact that the Germans didn't have remotely close to enough bombers to do that.

Air power can do a lot but not all airpower is made easy.  Sure German naval bombers could have done a lot... if they actually had any naval bombers.  Pearly Harbor and Taranto were impressive but they show what you can achieve with resources that the Germans were completely lacking in.

The "What if" here isn't "what if Germany had chosen targets differently".  It's "What if Germany had a huge additional arsenal of weapons".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 23, 2014, 05:20:55 pm
This looks like a pretty competent analysis of why Sea Lion couldn't work. (http://www.philm.demon.co.uk/Miscellaneous/Sealion.htm)

Also, the Germans were starting to losing the air war before they switched to bombing cities. They were losing aircraft at a pretty serious pace, and the Brits were constructing new ones faster than they were shot down.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 23, 2014, 05:22:40 pm
Sealion is kind of...oh, what's the term for it.  I can't recall..

Amphibious landing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion Pretty much Germany's version of the D-Day landings at Normandy and the operations from there.
Yes, but I was thinking of a quality judgment rather than a factual statement.  It was bloody, bloody stupid, but I had a neat pithy phrase for it that I completely forgot. :P For instance, Overlord was launched with specialized landing craft designed to put boots and treads on the sand as fast as possible.  The Germans at this point were so hard-up for amphibious capacity that they wanted to press Rhine river barges into service for the operation, or in other words, craft that were designed for constrained river operations and would have been so unseaworthy in open Channel waters that they would have capsized if you so much as blew on them - Home Fleet could have literally destroyed the invasion force by steaming right through it at flank speed and letting them overturn in its wake.  Sea Lion would start with the loss of over half the first wave to the Channel waters, with the landing being made piecemeal by disorganized forces against concentrated defenses just where the British wanted them to be, and any subsequent attempt would have been ripped to pieces.  About the best you can say that would have happened is that the Germans would have done quite a bit of damage to Home Fleet as it sallied, but would have lost much of the committed Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe in the desperate fighting in the process.

Culise, since you seen to know about the subject, how would a successful Sealion have influenced the North African war?
Heh, not as much as most may think; I'm basically researching on the fly.  To a degree, it depends on which part is successful - the landings (Sea Lion proper) or the follow-up conquest of the Isles.  If the Home Isles have already fallen by 1941, North Africa becomes a critical pivot as far as morale is concerned in order to compensate for such a severe drubbing, and it's not like the reinforcements have anywhere else to go (except maybe Singapore or Port Moresby).  If the Home Isles are still fighting hard, Operation Compass might never happen as reinforcements slated for Egypt instead go straight to (or never leave - the British actually sent quite a few tanks from home to Egypt) the Home Isles, or else it might occur with more limited aims (i.e., drive the Italians out of Egypt, but not to press as far as Tobruk).  They also wouldn't be stripped for the operations in Greece, and without the complete collapse of Italian positions, Rommel never arrives with the Africa Corps.  Indeed, even if Operation Compass went off exactly as historical, German manpower commitments to the invasion of Britain might also block reinforcement of the Italians.  This is all in the near-term, mind you; extrapolating further is a bit trickier. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea_Lion Pretty much Germany's version of the D-Day landings at Normandy and the operations from there.
Except shitter. Disappointed they didn't try, it would've ended the war so much sooner. What if you go the Mythbusters approach though; what would it take for Sealion to work? How many flying tanks would the Germans have to conjure up from thin air?
All of them. :P Let's see, they'd need a Kriegsmarine strong enough to fight off the Home Fleet and still maintain enough capability for massive shore bombardment to crack pillboxes and rip apart the Admiralty scaffolding, not to mention the amphibious assault capabilities of something ranking above that of a lead elephant.  They'd need a Luftwaffe capable of outfighting the British over their own soil, which probably means the British need to lose the Home Chain and the Battle of the Beams, as well as many more fighter craft.  They'd need to be able to put enough boots on the ground to secure a beachhead against the coastal crust defenses, not to mention a mobile response force that should have almost 500 tanks (Churchill's numbers, not Cranbourne's).  The planned landing site for Sea Lion included a marsh that was already partially flooded intentionally to stymie inland advances, and could have been flooded even further should it ever materialize.  With the British already dismantling ports and piers in the south, the Germans would also need their own equivalent to the Mulberry Harbors.  Finally, I'd throw in some specialized tanks akin to Hobart's Funnies for anti-mine and amphibious capabilities.  The problem is a lot of the Allied planning that went into D-Day was predicated on the tremendous failures at Dieppe.  Just as you yourself say, Sea Lion is like an even more incompetent Dieppe, and unlike the Allies, Germany doesn't have the production capacity to do it twice, especially when (unlike the Allies) they're going whole-hog the first time.  So, basically, all the goodies of 1944 Allies, their own pocket America-equivalent production-wise, as well as those four years of experience granted as precog.  That's what they'd need. ^_^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 23, 2014, 05:27:13 pm
From the article I linked: "In a decision that is difficult to understand, given that there was no heavy equipment for them to pull, the Germans decided to include over 4,000 horses in the first wave."

I dunno how to comment on that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 23, 2014, 05:28:01 pm
From the article I linked: "In a decision that is difficult to understand, given that there was no heavy equipment for them to pull, the Germans decided to include over 4,000 horses in the first wave."

I dunno how to comment on that.
At least they'll still have fresh meat once the Home Fleet cuts them off from resupply. ^_^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 23, 2014, 06:44:09 pm
What if Sealion had been tried and failed?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 24, 2014, 10:02:03 am
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on September 24, 2014, 10:24:47 am
1. I think it belongs to the European Politics Megathread.
2. It's not a Russian truck (http://novosti.donetsk.ua/%D0%B2-%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B5-%D0%B2%D0%BE-%D1%82%D1%8C%D0%BC%D0%B5-%D1%81%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D1%8F%D0%B4%D1%8B-%D1%83%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B3%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B0/).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: DJ on September 24, 2014, 03:39:09 pm
What if the French fleet was not destroyed but instead captured by Germany? Could they have gained naval superiority?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 24, 2014, 04:05:17 pm
More context from the same article that sergarr linked:
Quote
The engineers were nothing if not enthusiastic. They built rafts from pontoons, and were undismayed when half of these rafts sank while in harbour. Attempts to provide these rafts with power failed, because they broke up under the strain. Nonetheless, the Wehrmacht announced that these rafts would be towed behind the barges being towed by the tugs, and that the horses would thus be transported across the Channel on these rafts, saving the difficulties of loading the horses into the barges. One wonders what the horses would have made of this concept.

Why not put the horses ON barges? lol

Honestly though, wouldn't have been easier to just steal british horses once they got onshore if they needed horses? I know there could be the language barrier since the horses wouldn't understand the commands, but that wouldn't be an insurmountable problem.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 24, 2014, 04:12:00 pm
Whole French fleet falling in German hands...

Let me think...

France 01 January 1940:
IN SERVICE: 7 battleships, 1 fleet aircraft carrier, 1 seaplane tender, 7 heavy cruisers, 10 light cruisers, 1 training cruiser, 12 auxiliary cruisers, 58 destroyers, 13 torpedo boats, 77 submarines, 9 sloops, 15 auxiliary sloops, 32 fast anti-submarine ships (corvettes), 11 submarine chasers,
+

GERMANY 01 January 1940
N SERVICE: 2 battleships-predreadnoughts, 2 battlecruisers, 5 seaplane tenders, 3 catapult vessels, 4 heavy cruisers, 6 light cruisers, 3 auxiliary cruisers, 22 destroyers, 21 torpedo boats, 55 submarines, 7 corvettes, 4 patrol ships, 140 auxiliary patrol vessels, 30 auxiliary submarine chasers,

against:
UNITED KINGDOM 01 January 1940
IN SERVICE: 11 battleships, 3 battlecruisers, 3 monitors, 4 fleet aircraft carriers, 2 light aircraft carriers, 2 seaplane tenders, 13 heavy cruisers, 43 light cruisers, 1 cruiser-minelayer, 41 auxiliary cruisers, 18 destroyer leaders, 160 destroyers, 60 submarines, 34 sloops, 10 patrol ships (corvettes),

________
So French fleet would be addition to German fleet but trained sailors... You need not only French giving all their vessels intact , but also fighting on German side...

Furthemore 5 of 7 French battleships were modest, 25 000t displacement, 20 knots, WW1-era vessels.

Nice collection of French cruisers would be a game changer, not for Sealion but for raiding commercial raiding

Same goes for French submarines
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 24, 2014, 04:17:05 pm
More context from the same article that sergarr linked:
Quote
The engineers were nothing if not enthusiastic. They built rafts from pontoons, and were undismayed when half of these rafts sank while in harbour. Attempts to provide these rafts with power failed, because they broke up under the strain. Nonetheless, the Wehrmacht announced that these rafts would be towed behind the barges being towed by the tugs, and that the horses would thus be transported across the Channel on these rafts, saving the difficulties of loading the horses into the barges. One wonders what the horses would have made of this concept.

Why not put the horses ON barges? lol

Honestly though, wouldn't have been easier to just steal british horses once they got onshore if they needed horses? I know there could be the language barrier since the horses wouldn't understand the commands, but that wouldn't be an insurmountable problem.
No, you see, the Nazis clearly believed that their horses were the True Aryan Horses® and thus obviously superior to the low-class British breeds.

Obviously.


Also, UR, France would never give their military fleet, nor their sailors, to the Germany. It was directly mentioned in the peace treaty, and the France has said that if Germans tried to capture the ships by force, they would sink all of them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: USEC_OFFICER on September 24, 2014, 07:07:51 pm
No, you see, the Nazis clearly believed that their horses were the True Aryan Horses® and thus obviously superior to the low-class British breeds.

Obviously.

Alternative, less snarky answer: The Germans needed the horses for transportation*, and I'm pretty sure the British knew that too. So their chances of capturing enough for their transportation needs were pretty slim. Really, planning to capture equipment from the enemy so that you can continue your advance sounds like a monumentally stupid idea to me. It sounds much better to me to spend the effort to ships the horses over and not need them, as opposed to not spending the effort and suddenly needing to while in the middle of an invasion.



* - You know, for how modernized and scary the German army was in WWII, it's odd how much of it was held together with proverbial duct tape and an indifferent shrug. Horses were heavily relied upon for transporting supplies, your average infantryman was using a rifle from 1891~... Heck, a good portion of the tanks that invaded France were training models and only equipped with machine guns. And most of the rest had problems damaging enemy tanks. Yeah, I know that most of these problems were due to lack of factory space, but... That just makes what they accomplished even more impressive.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 24, 2014, 08:41:31 pm
Also, UR, France would never give their military fleet, nor their sailors, to the Germany. It was directly mentioned in the peace treaty, and the France has said that if Germans tried to capture the ships by force, they would sink all of them.
For that matter, Germany tried, and France did.  Operation Lila (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scuttling_of_the_French_fleet_in_Toulon) was an utter fiasco - of over 100 surviving French ships, the Germans captured only 39, most of which had been sabotaged and/or already disarmed to serve as training hulks. Giving them even more ships (those that were historically destroyed at Mers-el-Kébir) to attempt to secure at the same time would have only resulted in even more hulls at the bottom of Toulon harbor. 

EDIT: Actually, I just realized that I misparsed the original question.  It isn't asking about if the ships at Mers-el-Kébir survived to reach Vichy at all; it's if Operation Lila itself had somehow, miraculously succeeded.  The answer to that is still that Germany doesn't benefit very much - most of the ships were transferred to Italian control, not German, since it was the Regia Marina that operated in the Mediterranean.  Italian fuel stores were low, there would still have been issues of sabotage, and arresting the entire French crews would have meant that the Italians and Germans would have to scare up enough warm bodies to crew the things themselves.  The fact that many of the ships were positively obsolescent and had no place on the field of battle (hence why they had been disarmed in the first place) would not have assisted matters any, either.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 24, 2014, 11:13:14 pm
Maybe if the Germans had asked politely the Japanese would send a fleet to the Atlantic to meet up with Germany and Italy instead of Pearl Harbor.

* - You know, for how modernized and scary the German army was in WWII, it's odd how much of it was held together with proverbial duct tape and an indifferent shrug. Horses were heavily relied upon for transporting supplies, your average infantryman was using a rifle from 1891~... Heck, a good portion of the tanks that invaded France were training models and only equipped with machine guns. And most of the rest had problems damaging enemy tanks. Yeah, I know that most of these problems were due to lack of factory space, but... That just makes what they accomplished even more impressive.

Well it's not like the Germans were alone in that regard.  Every nation but the US was using a comparable bolt action rifle and the M1 wasn't a huge advantage.  The most common tank for the Soviets at the start of the war was the T-26 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-26).  Everyone was fighting on foot at the start of the war, it's only as the war progressed and huge numbers of trucks were built that motorized forces cropped up.  Germany had more motorized troops then France in 1940.  Operation Compass was such a huge success because the Italian couldn't even muster a corps worth of motorized troops from an Army's worth of troops.

Where the disparity happens is as the Soviet and western forces modernize and the Germans are slower to adapt.  While everyone was desperate for war supplies, the Germans picked a strategy of pouring resources into every useless project they could find.  As their soldiers slogged through the mud in Russia, 10% of Germany's trucks were shipped to North Africa so they could break down in the desert while Rommel drove towards objectives he still didn't have enough trucks to attack in strength.  While American and Soviet factories churned out tanks nearly without interruption all war long the Germans restarted production about every month as they went through dozens of variants and three different medium tanks.  As the German Army prepared to attack Russia, the campaign that would lose them the war, the air fleet was bled dry bombing England.  As Germany soldiers attacked fortified mountain defenses in pursuit of oil, Italy was hording the stuff and getting new shipments.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on September 28, 2014, 04:38:58 am
So I've been thinking.

What if the Japs decided to not chicken out at PH and instead went to take the entirety of Hawaii. Sure they'd need some extra ships ferrying troops but it wouldn't be that infeasible to see them doing it, considering how quickly they devastated the fleet and the surrounding base.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 28, 2014, 05:08:50 am
I'm just waiting for Erkki to shoot you down.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 28, 2014, 05:12:06 am
Well, the primary benefit of taking Hawaii means you get to destroy Pearl Harbours logistical facilities. Not destroying those was a big mistake, as it meant that Pearl Harbour was back in operation within months and destroying them would have restricted US operations in the Pacific for one or even several years. (Japan's plan was a short descisive war, so therefore they didn't target logistical systems).

On the other hand, Hawaii was on the edge of Japan's logistical support capability. Had they attempted to invade, their carriers would not have been able to stay their for long, lest they risk having to abandon escorts on the way home. This leaves the Japanese invasion force dangerously open to an attack by US carriers and other US forces.

I'm just waiting for Erkki to shoot you down.
Indeed. As am I.

A more interesting question might be, what if Japan never attacked the US in the first place?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on September 28, 2014, 05:22:23 am
either japan starves out (thank you oil embargo) or america declares war anyway
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 28, 2014, 05:23:25 am
Why would the US declare war? Couldn't Japan makes an agreement with the Dutch for DEI oil?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 28, 2014, 05:31:43 am
Or, you know, just invade the Dutch East Indies.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 28, 2014, 05:32:13 am
Wouldn't that have triggered a US attack?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on September 28, 2014, 05:33:30 am
Why would the US declare war? Couldn't Japan makes an agreement with the Dutch for DEI oil?

the purpose of the embargo was to provoke japan to attack in order to circumvent isolationist attitudes of the american public and allow america to overtly enter the war against the axis

sounds tinfoil as fuck, i know, but legit
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 28, 2014, 05:50:21 am
However, the US policy was already very much slanted in favour of attack Germany first, and solving the Pacific later. Not attacking Pearl Harbour might have resulted in further diversion of resources towards the European Front, giving Japan additional room in the Pacific.

And the additional forces wouldn't have helped the US much. Four out of eight battleships, all 3 Cruisers and 1 out of 3 destroyers  and 2 out of 3 auxiliaries were back in service within the year.

The attack on Pearl Harbour wanted to prevent a US counter-attack against Japanese invasion of the Philiphines. However, that was unneeded as the US never intended to charge across the atlantic. Since 1935, the plan had been to evacuate the Philippines and focus on keeping Japan out of the Eastern Pacific while concentrating forces against Nazi Germany.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on September 28, 2014, 07:27:24 am
I'm just thinking how much time the Japs would've bought themselves if they had taken PH. They would've gotten some loot from it certainly so I don't think supply would be that big of an issue initially, and once they clamped down on the islands they could've provided atleast some form of sustinence to the troops stationed there.

But what would most certainly happen is the US not having any staging ground to launch any kind of offensive in Asia without taking Hawaii first. That would've allowed the Japs pretty much free reign in the Pacific with only the Australians to try and stop them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 28, 2014, 07:29:38 am
I'm just thinking how much time the Japs would've bought themselves if they had taken PH. They would've gotten some loot from it certainly so I don't think supply would be that big of an issue initially, and once they clamped down on the islands they could've provided atleast some form of sustinence to the troops stationed there.

But what would most certainly happen is the US not having any staging ground to launch any kind of offensive in Asia without taking Hawaii first. That would've allowed the Japs pretty much free reign in the Pacific with only the Australians to try and stop them.

You're kind off forgetting the US controlled Philipines.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 28, 2014, 07:30:00 am
Well, the Japs could have used fuel (if the tanks aren't blown in the attack or destroyed by retreating US troops), but I doubt US munitions and spare part would have been useful.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on September 28, 2014, 07:36:03 am
They would've been cut off though and probably couldn't last that long, and if they did dig in the Japs could just ignore them since they're on an island and can't really do much without risking total destruction. And controling Hawaii would give the Japs a nice base of operation which could monitor most of the sealanes in the Pacific, denying any resupply attempts from the US.

And yeah, spare parts wouldn't be that useful, but ammo can always be used with looted weapons and there would've been plenty of those lying around. Planes too I think, tho I'm not entirely sure what the US had stationed there at the start of the war and how useful it would've been to the Japs.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on September 28, 2014, 07:48:02 am
I might be at risk of voicing a dissenting opinion here, but what the hell.

If Japan had landed at Pearl Harbour, and attempted some sort of occupation, it would have ended in disaster. A huge force would have been needed to take control of it from the US, and as already mentioned, it would have been at the extreme end of their supply capabilities, and you could bet that the US would throw whatever it took to take it back, as soon as possible. The loss of a lot of Japanese men and materiel in such a fiasco would probably serve to shorten the war in the Pacific.

As for Japan not attacking Pearl Harbour... that too serves to shorten the war despite delaying its onset, by leaving the US with much greater strength in the area to strike with when Japan finally went one step too far.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on September 28, 2014, 08:02:12 am
You're not voicing a dissenting opinion. Jopax is the only one who's slightly positive about the chances of invading Hawai.

As for Japan not attacking Pearl Harbour... that too serves to shorten the war despite delaying its onset, by leaving the US with much greater strength in the area to strike with when Japan finally went one step too far.
Not really. Pearl Harbour was more of a moral victory. The Battleships, which constituted the majority of the losses, where mostly useless at this point in history.

The Pearl Harbour infrastructure and the assets that went on to damage the Japanese forces, the US carriers and submarines, were completely undamaged by the Pacific Harbor raid.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 28, 2014, 10:13:53 am
Battleships aren't useless in WWII.  Yes in a straight up naval engagement you would rather have another carrier then another two battleships but a battleship is still very useful.

-The pacific is full of islands that need to be invaded in bloody engagements.  Battleships greatly reduce the casualties involved taking those.
-The battleships sunk at Midway were good for bringing another 70 AA guns to the fight each.  That's a good chunk of flak.  And US naval AA got very potent in the later war.  You wouldn't want to operate without carriers but you'd much rather your task force be packed with battleships and cruisers when enemy planes around.
-Battleships serve as a very powerful deterrent for enemy cruisers and battleships and give your carriers more freedom of movement then without them.

With perfect hindsight it would be ideal to have fewer battleships and rely more on cruisers to support the carriers.  But that wasn't the situation in Pearl Harbor.

Why would the US declare war? Couldn't Japan makes an agreement with the Dutch for DEI oil?

Not with what Japan was doing in China.

It's possible that the US would have settled for just supplying more and more to the Chinese.  The Japanese were less likely to win in China than the Germans were to win in Russia.  So the US could have just supplied more to the Chinese by the southern route (or opened up a northern route through the Soviet Union).  And that would have helped in Europe quite a bit.  Directly that's 22 divisions that go to Europe instead of the Pacific.  Indirectly the Lend Lease to Russia can take a Pacific route instead of the dangerous Atlantic route or the very long Persian route.  But that's accepting a very, very large number of Chinese deaths to save a relatively small number of Americans.  I just dont think FDR was cold enough to do that.

New question:
What if the US hadn't been isolationist in the 1930s and had declared war on Germany at the same time as Canada did?  Lets suppose that the US army was as small as it was historically.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 28, 2014, 01:17:32 pm
Presumably the same thing that happened when UK declared war on Germany: nothing really happens, at least for the first three months.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 28, 2014, 04:07:15 pm
Yes, but 1940 would be rather different.

I think the first change would  be Operation_Weserübung. IRL Germany lost three cruisers and ten destroyers, with American Navy around, that could be even more painful. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on September 29, 2014, 01:48:54 am
Maybe too soon, but what if Ukrainian troops had shot the little green men in Crimea?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on September 29, 2014, 01:54:14 am
Russia would claim that Ukraine attacked Crimean self-defense units and\or Russian Black Sea Fleet and started a full scale invasion with Kiev falling in a week...

 

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 29, 2014, 02:15:31 am
Yeah, Russia would probably invade the rest of Ukraine, and I don't think the international response would be that different. I'm surprised they didn't take more/all of Ukraine when it became so obvious that NATO was going to do everything short of doing anything.

I don't think FDR would've declared war on Japan (before entering the war in Europe anyway) given any amount of atrocities. It's not like the US entered the war in Europe for ethical reasons while the Nazi atrocities were well known, or has ever entered a war just to stop a genocide (except for some UN interventions). Nobody batted an eye later at killing/wounding ~1 million German and Japanese civilians for negligible gains, so it's not like the US actually had any kind of a fundamental objection (outside of rhetoric) to what was being done serious enough to lead to war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on September 29, 2014, 04:51:50 am
Maybe too soon, but what if Ukrainian troops had shot the little green men in Crimea?
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs would issue a press release expressing Russia's concerns over the escalating conflict in Ukraine and once again stating Russia's commitment to maintaining friendly relations with its Western partners.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 02, 2014, 12:41:26 pm
Back to a US invasion of Europe, what would be the US's answer to fighting in European cities? Windy, labyrinthine cities whose only guides travel in the black cabs of mysterious path sages?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on October 02, 2014, 12:51:03 pm
Maybe use the tactics developed in WWII? I don't know how labrynthine the cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan are, but urban warfare is still urban warfare.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 02, 2014, 12:53:46 pm
Back to a US invasion of Europe, what would be the US's answer to fighting in European cities? Windy, labyrinthine cities whose only guides travel in the black cabs of mysterious path sages?
Depends on what do US want from European cities.

If US wants to leave the city somewhat intact then US should besiege it, cut off electricity/water/food supplies and wait. That should guarantee that the city surrenders in a few weeks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: ggamer on October 02, 2014, 03:17:00 pm
Maybe use the tactics developed in WWII? I don't know how labrynthine the cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan are, but urban warfare is still urban warfare.

Don't really know what's being talked about here, but I just popped in an I might as well respond to this.

So, the thing is, Iraq/Afghanistan and a hypothetical invasion of Europe are two different things.

In the Middle East, we are fighting insurgents inside a nation, with that nation's consent. Urban warfare becomes much more tricky when the people you are trying to fight are also hiding as citizens that you are (most of the time) trying to protect.

A conventional war in Europe, however, is another affair entirely. Things become much easier when your enemy actually has non-combatants and an industrial base that they need to protect. In a conventional war, fighting would be brutal and drawn-out. However, there would be little to no risk of civilian casualties, because your enemy would have evacuated most-if-not-all non-combatants. At the very least, they would be in uniform (assuming we're following the constraints of the Geneva Convention, IIRC)

E: What I mean by that last sentence, is that if there is a large pool of non-combatants in the city (more likely than I think now that I think about it), they will at least be uniformed enemy personnel, rather than plainclothes normal-looking citizens.

So no, urban warfare isn't urban warfare.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 02, 2014, 03:30:30 pm
Maybe use the tactics developed in WWII?
Bomb everything with air strikes and artillery? Possible I guess, but not a full solution.

I don't know how labrynthine the cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan are, but urban warfare is still urban warfare.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Bagdhad's not as neat of a grid as many American cities are, but they're still rather neat.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Then you get cities like Paris where you should basically just kill yourself already.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
A look at London that's all over the fucking place.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Berlin ruins the combo by having a neat city. Casuals.

The vast series of underground tunnels, metros, sewers and WWII bunkers are also not to be forgotten.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on October 02, 2014, 04:20:05 pm
US Tactics when meeting EU cities? Simple. Bomb the crap outta them from the air. Use armour and mechanised infantry with close air support to take main road nodes and form an encirclement. Follow up with lots of artilliery, then on vehicle yomp to city centres, or on foot where vehicles can not go. A horrible, horrible fucking bloodbath on both sides. This assumes the need to take them, and that investing in a siege is off the table.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 02, 2014, 05:04:57 pm
US Tactics when meeting EU cities? Simple. Bomb the crap outta them from the air. Use armour and mechanised infantry with close air support to take main road nodes and form an encirclement. Follow up with lots of artilliery, then on vehicle yomp to city centres, or on foot where vehicles can not go. A horrible, horrible fucking bloodbath on both sides. This assumes the need to take them, and that investing in a siege is off the table.
Yeah, have fun trying to drive any armour through the ruins of a European city whilst under attack from enemy airpower and ground forces. Cars have difficulty navigating these streets at their most pristine and efficient, a determined defender with armour, barricades and fortifications of their own? There'd be an anti-tank weapon behind every window, or close enough. Stalingrad 2 electric boogaloo.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on October 02, 2014, 05:46:42 pm
Stalingrad 2 electric boogaloo.
This. Also, many Europeans already loathe the US with a passion; in case of a US attack, the American soldiers would have to deal with a massive guerilla movement as well as Europe's proper military forces.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on October 02, 2014, 06:44:27 pm
I cant for the life of me figure out why you'd want to fight for a single city.  So much easier to just hit any military targets from outside and move on to the next city without waiting for surrender.

Iraq featured house to house fighting because the US was trying to literally police the place.  If the US pulled out of Fallujah when the going got tough then it's citizens would kill each other on sectarian lines and generally do a lot of stuff the US didn't want.  But it's not like the citizens of Paris or London will start killing each other to stick it to the Americans.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on October 03, 2014, 02:36:37 am
Yeah, I would say that besieging the cities is the way to go. I don't know about other European cities, but for example Warsaw takes a good half of it's water supply from just one huge well; a good GBU-16 Paveway II or a couple would effectively shut it down. A few more at other key facilities, especially natural gas/electric power supply and just give it time. After most civilians leave the place due to lack of everything needed to survive, just start cutting through the city block by block, starting with artillery, aerial bombardments, and attacking along less-fortified axes of approach.

Still costly, lengthy and problematic, but the same is to be said about every other place in the world where there are cities, honestly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on October 03, 2014, 01:22:30 pm
Maybe use the tactics developed in WWII?
Bomb everything with air strikes and artillery? Possible I guess, but not a full solution.

I don't know how labrynthine the cities and towns in Iraq and Afghanistan are, but urban warfare is still urban warfare.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Bagdhad's not as neat of a grid as many American cities are, but they're still rather neat.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Then you get cities like Paris where you should basically just kill yourself already.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
A look at London that's all over the fucking place.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Berlin ruins the combo by having a neat city. Casuals.

The vast series of underground tunnels, metros, sewers and WWII bunkers are also not to be forgotten.

For comparison, Eastern European cities:

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 03, 2014, 01:55:25 pm
Quote
currently contested between vegetables and jackets
You made my day
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on October 03, 2014, 03:51:51 pm
The city has experience of being an arena for urban combat - it was almost completely destroyed during the onslaught of very civilized Eurointegrators in the 1940s.

Mine too.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on October 03, 2014, 07:32:43 pm
Hey!
Alright, I kinda do... It's a beautiful city, okay? And I want to be able to visit without a visum...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 04, 2014, 02:36:50 am
Quote
The city has experience of being an arena for urban combat - it was almost completely destroyed during the onslaught of very civilized Eurointegrators in the 1940s.

Well, most damage was done by Red Army when they recaptured Minsk.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on October 04, 2014, 06:31:19 am
Quote
The city has experience of being an arena for urban combat - it was almost completely destroyed during the onslaught of very civilized Eurointegrators in the 1940s.

Well, most damage was done by Red Army when they recaptured Minsk.
I should note that large areas of the city were destroyed by the fires caused by Nazi German air raids on the 24th of June 1941.
Some districts were ruined, some were not, as this photo shows:

(http://www.radzima.org/images/pamatniki/3817/mememens54-26.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Comrade Shamrock on October 04, 2014, 06:44:40 am
I cant for the life of me figure out why you'd want to fight for a single city.  So much easier to just hit any military targets from outside and move on to the next city without waiting for surrender.
Don't underestimate pride and symbolism. Just because it's a good idea doesn't mean its going to be carried out. The pride of a person could lead him to want to capture this or that. Also if you don't occupy the cities they may become havens for the remnants of defeated armies. Also a cities fall can be a symbol that a country is losing and may lower morale.

Also if you seriously want to test this conflict get Men of War with some mods like ''modern mod'' and duke it out. Its a game I know but you could try it for the laugh. Set yourself some rules in it too like only what the would actually do on a battlefield and hey presto inaccurate simulator. Watch the glorious chaos unfold.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on October 04, 2014, 07:13:04 am
I cant for the life of me figure out why you'd want to fight for a single city.  So much easier to just hit any military targets from outside and move on to the next city without waiting for surrender.
Don't underestimate pride and symbolism. Just because it's a good idea doesn't mean its going to be carried out. The pride of a person could lead him to want to capture this or that.
There's a good argument to be made that Hitler went for Stalingrad mostly because it carried Stalin's name. Not that it wasn't of strategic importance as well, but that alone wouldn't have justified makinng the city the slaughterhouse it became.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on October 04, 2014, 07:17:42 am
nah, hitler went for moscow on that

stalingrad was pretty much the hinge on which the southern parts of the union (baku oilfields, primarily) stood

and that was a damn rich resource that would be pretty tricky to bomb to boot (closest allied bases would be in the remaining parts of soviet union or all the way in iraq)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 04, 2014, 07:44:59 am
I think if Germany went for Stalingrad instead of Moscow in 1941 the war would be very different.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on October 04, 2014, 08:24:38 am
Heh, I had a friend once that stated that if could made one decision for Hitler different that he did, he could make the outcome of the WW II very different. Interesting, he had quite a few such decisions. But then I proposed him a little game: for every Hitler's mistake corrected, I got to correct one Stalin's mistake. Interestingly, it usually led to Soviets getting even more of an advantage, at least in our estimation. So it seems Stalin fucked up even worse than Hitler, but had (pun intended) more reserves of luck to draw on from.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 04, 2014, 11:16:07 am
It also helped that Germans have never really improved on their tactics coined during the conquest of Poland and France, while Russians were catching up pretty quickly in military tactics and strategy.

The Stalingrad battle is notable also because an entire German's 6th army has been encircled and subsequently defeated as a direct result of it.

Taking cities in Russia is not a winning strategy. Napoleon got defeated because of that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 04, 2014, 12:42:42 pm
It also helped that Germans have never really improved on their tactics coined during the conquest of Poland and France, while Russians were catching up pretty quickly in military tactics and strategy.

The Stalingrad battle is notable also because an entire German's 6th army has been encircled and subsequently defeated as a direct result of it.
German army at Stalingrad got all problems from the fact that it flanks were guarded by Hungarians, Romanians and Italians with their inferior training and equipment
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 04, 2014, 03:16:53 pm
It also helped that Germans have never really improved on their tactics coined during the conquest of Poland and France, while Russians were catching up pretty quickly in military tactics and strategy.

The Stalingrad battle is notable also because an entire German's 6th army has been encircled and subsequently defeated as a direct result of it.
German army at Stalingrad got all problems from the fact that it flanks were guarded by Hungarians, Romanians and Italians with their inferior training and equipment
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad#Weakness_on_the_German_flanks

They didn't really have enough troops to cover all the territory + the German command was too focused on taking the city, and it probably forgot about the flanks.

They were used to surrounding Soviet troops. They didn't expect the Soviet troops to surround them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 02:51:55 am
I think it is a great "success" for Russian diplomacy to get tanks right near his borders. No one bothered to place serious forces in Baltic States
More tanks near our border? Great, we don't have to go across half the world to destroy them!  :)

Like how Russians believe in their outdated, badly trained, badly disciplined army :D

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_73_Easting Here is what Abrams Tanks do with Soviet crap. Same will happen again next time
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 05, 2014, 04:06:50 am
Iraq troops < Russian troops.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on October 05, 2014, 04:10:12 am
In addition, that was the M1A1 versus early soviet tanks. T-55, T-62, and just a few T-72's.

ie, the most modern Iraqi tank was still 15 years older than the  US tanks involved.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 04:20:52 am
Yes, Iraq troops were more disciplined, better trained, and had a lot of experience from the war with Iran

Modern Russian troops are worse

In addition, that was the M1A1 versus early soviet tanks. T-55, T-62, and just a few T-72's.

ie, the most modern Iraqi tank was still 15 years older than the  US tanks involved.

It will be same now. Modernized Abrams against less modernized T-72 (Some of them are called T-90) and not modernized reserve T-72s\T-80s  that are as good as T-55s in 1991
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 05, 2014, 04:27:29 am
Dude, just recently 30 000 Iraqi troops with Abrams tanks and all that US shit were routed by 800 ISIS fighters armed with AK-s.

Iraqi troops are always worse than Russian ones. They also used the "export versions" of Russian tanks, which were intentionally downgraded.

For one, they didn't have the advanced fire control systems, which modern Russians tanks have.

Also, who said tanks will be fighting tanks? The Abrams are going to mostly fight infantry armed with anti-tank weapons (modern anti-tank weapons are quite capable of piercing the side of the Abrams FYI). With the desert style camo the Abrams tanks are going to be spotted from very far.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on October 05, 2014, 04:32:50 am
Dude, just recently 30 000 Iraqi troops with Abrams tanks and all that US shit were routed by 800 ISIS fighters armed with AK-s.

Iraqi troops are always worse than Russian ones. They also used the "export versions" of Russian tanks, which were intentionally downgraded.

For one, they didn't have the advanced fire control systems, which modern Russians tanks have.

Also, who said tanks will be fighting tanks? The Abrams are going to mostly fight infantry armed with anti-tank weapons (modern anti-tank weapons are quite capable of piercing the side of the Abrams FYI). With the desert style camo the Abrams tanks are going to be spotted from very far.


 . . . What?


No. Just no.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on October 05, 2014, 04:36:23 am
In addition, that was the M1A1 versus early soviet tanks. T-55, T-62, and just a few T-72's.

ie, the most modern Iraqi tank was still 15 years older than the  US tanks involved.
The Soviet tanks in Iraqi arsenal were downgraded, inferior export versions - they wouldn't even win against their counterparts from the USSR.

EDIT:
The Abrams are going to mostly fight infantry armed with anti-tank weapons (modern anti-tank weapons are quite capable of piercing the side of the Abrams FYI). With the desert style camo the Abrams tanks are going to be spotted from very far.
(http://i.imgur.com/kvAG7RS.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 04:45:56 am
Oh, that downgraded export version myth again....

How many not downgraded T-72 and T-80s Chechens destroyed in Grozny?

I know you'll say that Abrams would fare no better. But we both know that is untrue.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 05, 2014, 04:52:08 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
These tanks do not appear to have the appropriate camo.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 04:53:39 am
Repainting is a trivial job
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Guardian G.I. on October 05, 2014, 08:43:03 am
Oh, that downgraded export version myth again....
Yes, they existed. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_variants_of_Soviet_military_equipment) Soviet Union never sent its top of the line military equipment to volatile Third World countries, where they could easily fall into the hands of American intelligence operatives.

How many not downgraded T-72 and T-80s Chechens destroyed in Grozny?
I've said that before and I'll say it again: Russian losses during the disastrous attempt at storming Grozny on the New Year's Eve of 1995 weren't caused by the extreme inferiority of the tanks themselves.
Maskhadov & Co. should have declared the entire Russian General Staff heroes of Ichkeria - sending tanks and APC without infantry support in a city full of militants with RPGs was a suicidal move showing the incompetence of Russian generals.
The same T-72 and T-80 tanks also participated in the Second Chechen War against the same Chechens with the same RPGs - the Russian Army didn't lose several hundred tanks and APCs like in 1995. If they were so inferior, why did the Chechens fail to destroy them as easily as in the previous war?
Also, here's another example - 8-9 August 2008, South Ossetia. South Ossetian and Russian troops defended Tskhinvali against the Georgian assault. Both Georgians and Russians had T-72 tanks, which were used during urban combat. T-72s didn't prove themselves as vulnerable as in 1995's Grozny. I wonder why...

I know you'll say that Abrams would fare no better. But we both know that is untrue.
It depends on which RPG you would use. Old RPG-7 wouldn't fare much against Abrams tanks, but the newer RPG-29 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPG-29) would easily penetrate its armour. Iraqi insurgents successfully used them against American (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=c1e_1263769845) and British tanks (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1551418/MoD-kept-failure-of-best-tank-quiet.html) - unfortunately for them, they had very few RPG-29s. Israeli Merkava tanks were also no match against Hezbollah militants with RPG-29s in Lebanon. (http://www.haaretz.com/news/hezbollah-anti-tank-fire-causing-most-idf-casualties-in-lebanon-1.194528)

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
These tanks do not appear to have the appropriate camo.
These are Bradley APCs, not tanks, and just like UR said, it isn't too hard to repaint them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: 10ebbor10 on October 05, 2014, 09:14:00 am
Honestly, I think no nation on Earth exports it's cutting edge tech. Everyone has a downgraded export product.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on October 05, 2014, 10:20:16 am
Repainting a tank is literally a one day job at a depot. It's a two hour job for a crew who was somehow, someway planning to use a tan vehicle (which is actually a perfectly serviceable paint scheme) to fight russians.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 01:39:30 pm
Quote
I've said that before and I'll say it again: Russian losses during the disastrous attempt at storming Grozny on the New Year's Eve of 1995 weren't caused by the extreme inferiority of the tanks themselves.
Maskhadov & Co. should have declared the entire Russian General Staff heroes of Ichkeria - sending tanks and APC without infantry support in a city full of militants with RPGs was a suicidal move showing the incompetence of Russian generals.
The same T-72 and T-80 tanks also participated in the Second Chechen War against the same Chechens with the same RPGs - the Russian Army didn't lose several hundred tanks and APCs like in 1995. If they were so inferior, why did the Chechens fail to destroy them as easily as in the previous war?
Also, here's another example - 8-9 August 2008, South Ossetia. South Ossetian and Russian troops defended Tskhinvali against the Georgian assault. Both Georgians and Russians had T-72 tanks, which were used during urban combat. T-72s didn't prove themselves as vulnerable as in 1995's Grozny. I wonder why...
Exactly. Effectiveness of a tank comes not from on paper data but from many factors.

Guy that commands a tank unit, quality of supporting infantry, intelligence, logistics (including servicing the tank), quality control on factory that produced the tank, training and morale of crews and many more factors.

Properly modernized T-90 is one of the best tanks of the world, especially if you add Western technologies like India did with their T-90s. But real combat effectiveness of Russian T-90 in Russian army is meh. Many of them have seen no modernization since 1990s\early 2000s, many of them are badly serviced.  Many of them came with flaws right from the production line and so on, so on.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 05, 2014, 01:49:14 pm
You cannot exactly determine the real combat effectiveness of T-90 given that they, AFAIK, have not been in any real combat.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 02:31:28 pm
That can be said about most modern  weapons

To compare weapons that never were in combat but have similar role and date of design we need to ask several questions

a) Who is leading in technologies related to the weapon in question
b) Who has better quality control in their defense industry
c) Who has fair competition in domestic defense market

a) Germany, Japan, France, Great Britain, South Korea have better technologies for targeting\sensors then Russia. Same goes for engines (go compare engine of a Russian and German\Japanese car. heh)
b) Russia is a corrupt autocratic country with post-Soviet industry that never had good quality control in anything
c) I don't have enough knowledge about how it is done in other countries, what I know that in Russia there are no competition between different tank manufacturers and foreign procurements aren't considered. Besides we are talking about state owned Russian industry, all competition here - who licks Putin's ass better.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 05, 2014, 02:38:06 pm
I don't think there are any countries where multiple different tank manufacturers exist.

And competing weapon manufacturers do in fact exist in Russia - Mikoyan and Kamov - for helicopters, Sukhoi and Mikoyan - for aircraft...

Russian tanks are the fastest tanks in the world, and don't you dare insult the Russian tank engines.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 03:06:49 pm
Yeah, sure. Russian\Soviet industry is\was unable to produce a semidecent engine for a car but makes\made the best tank engines. Sure.

This person can't walk without a stick but he is a great runner.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on October 05, 2014, 03:08:31 pm
Are the same companies making the engines for both cars and tanks?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 03:36:24 pm
Not sure about tanks, but Russian APCs do use KAMAZ engines from civilian trucks manufacturer 

But that is not that important what company produces something. Of cause military grade is military grade in any country. But as you can judge development of team sport by comparing teams from lower leagues, you can consider development of military related industry by comparing civilian products.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on October 05, 2014, 03:54:32 pm
I think the auto industry stagnated because it never really had any competition, the situation was much the same here in Yugoslavia. You'd see new models every now and then, but because people never really had any choice they never really had to make big leaps.

The military industry on the other hand, even if it is state owned and sees no direct competition will always have competition in the form of other nations. Because the army itself will push the industry to constantly improve.

So I really doubt the quality of russian tanks is that dubious, otherwise they wouldn't be one of the most widely exported military vehicles ever (and yes I know that it's atleast partially because of the power blocs in the cold war and all that, but it still stands that Soviet tech is the most widespread and used stuff to date)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 05, 2014, 04:14:57 pm
Oh found who makes Russian tank engines. Chelyabinsk tractor plant.... Sure. Great quality is expected :D

How can you compare that to Maybah that produces Leopard II engines or Perkins Engines(Caterpillar subsidiary)  that makes engines for British tanks or Lycoming_Engines who designed engines for Abrams?


As for Russian tanks being major competitor on the market... It is about price\quality and\or political reasons. Countries  can afford itself NATO or design their own tanks prefer that. 

T-72 was so widely  popular because it was sold dirt cheap to socialist friends(USSR actually lost money in many such contracts), if you look at  T-90 the most Modern Russian tank  the popularity is minimal. Only four countries procured it (India, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Algeria). India bough production license and modified the design with Western technologies

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 05, 2014, 04:23:13 pm
Russian tractors are the most peaceful tractors in the world  :D
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on October 05, 2014, 05:32:51 pm
Russian tractors are the most peaceful tractors in the world  :D
A proud tradition (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leichttraktor), indeed.  ^_^

Oh found who makes Russian tank engines. Chelyabinsk tractor plant.... Sure. Great quality is expected :D

How can you compare that to Maybah that produces Leopard II engines or Perkins Engines(Caterpillar subsidiary)  that makes engines for British tanks or Lycoming_Engines who designed engines for Abrams?
Quite well.  Tractor and tank engines actually have a significant amount of overlap in production requirements - they need to be robust enough to take a beating, easy to maintain in rural or difficult-to-reach areas, capable of hauling large amounts of mass (whether armor or farm equipment), and operating on fairly rough terrain, including mud.  In fact, just as you say, Perkins Engines is another company that produces tractor engines (as well as regular automotive diesel), while MTU Friedrichshafen (Maybach) manufactures...
Quote
...agriculture, mining and construction equipment...
...oh, even more tractors.  Let's face it, tank engines are pretty sexy and government contracts rather nice windfalls when they come along, but when push comes to shove, agriculture's a pretty stable market for heavy-hauling diesel engines.  Lycoming's the only exception, but that's because the Abrams design specs were all sorts of odd in the first place - Lycoming does trains and jets normally, with the only major exception being the Abrams.  In fact, the Abrams was basically designed around two things: its engine and the concept of American logistical supremacy.  I don't recall any other gas-turbine tank engines at all off the top of my head, and it gives the thing a thermal signature from Hell and a terrible fuel-efficiency (when it takes 10 gallons/38 L of fuel to start the engine and 1.7 gal/6.3 L of fuel burned per single mile traveled, there's an issue), but that's the price of a near-silent high-speed engine that can eat everything from JP-8 jet fuel (the US standard for everything from airplanes and tanks to cookstoves and heaters) to diesel or kerosene. 

EDIT: JP-8.  That missing letter is important.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 06, 2014, 02:31:58 am
Quote
I don't recall any other gas-turbine tank engines
Soviet T-80. In fact it was the first mass produced tank in the world with a gas-turbine engine.

_________________
I think you are missing my point. It is absolutely logical that same companies that produce diesel engines for agriculture, mining or construction vehicles produce engines for tanks.

But quality differs. German tractors have much better engines than Russian tractors. My assumption that  it is same for Leopard II and T-90 engines
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on October 06, 2014, 04:39:02 am
Lycoming's the only exception, but that's because the Abrams design specs were all sorts of odd in the first place - Lycoming does trains and jets normally, with the only major exception being the Abrams.  In fact, the Abrams was basically designed around two things: its engine and the concept of American logistical supremacy.  I don't recall any other gas-turbine tank engines at all off the top of my head, and it gives the thing a thermal signature from Hell and a terrible fuel-efficiency (when it takes 10 gallons/38 L of fuel to start the engine and 1.7 gal/6.3 L of fuel burned per single mile traveled, there's an issue), but that's the price of a near-silent high-speed engine that can eat everything from JP-8 jet fuel (the US standard for everything from airplanes and tanks to cookstoves and heaters) to diesel or kerosene. 


It really is a beautiful thing.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 06, 2014, 04:56:23 am
German tractors have much better engines than Russian tractors.
(http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/wikipedian_protester.png)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on October 06, 2014, 05:22:29 am
German tractors have much better engines than Russian tractors.
-citation needed pic-

Who sells more tractors abroad, Germans or Russians?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: LordSlowpoke on October 06, 2014, 05:57:36 am
depends, belarus outsells both so if you include it in russia
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 06, 2014, 06:03:07 am
I'd ask a different question: How many Russian tractors were imported to Germany and vice versa? Or a more broad question: How many Russian diesel equipped vehicles were imported to Germany and vice versa?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 06, 2014, 06:04:16 am
German tractors have much better engines than Russian tractors.
-citation needed pic-

Who sells more tractors abroad, Germans or Russians?
Soviets sold much more tanks abroad than US => Soviet had better tank engines.

Same logic.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 06, 2014, 06:31:03 am
a) I told it before. Armament market is not exactly free.
b) Number sold tells more about price\quality ratio than about quality. After all American tanks are few times more expensive than Russian.  If you want to tell me that competitive advantage of German tractors is price, I'll lol very hard
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 06, 2014, 07:35:58 am
Germany buys Belorussian tractors (http://www.ctv.by/en/days-of-belarusian-economy-in-berlin-why-do-germans-love-belarusian-tractors), you know.

That means they have a competitive advantage. And because Belarus is a (jokingly) Russian forward partisan outpost, it means that the Russian-made tractors are more competitive than the German ones, and not only because they're cheaper.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on October 06, 2014, 07:52:46 am
1) That article is hilarious. I read the whole of it in a fake Russian accent in my head.

2) To quote from it.

Quote
Of course, this tractor is not equal to European tractors but if we take the price/quality ratio, I think your tractor is very good.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on October 06, 2014, 09:33:26 am
Quote
I don't recall any other gas-turbine tank engines
Soviet T-80. In fact it was the first mass produced tank in the world with a gas-turbine engine.

_________________
I think you are missing my point. It is absolutely logical that same companies that produce diesel engines for agriculture, mining or construction vehicles produce engines for tanks.

But quality differs. German tractors have much better engines than Russian tractors. My assumption that  it is same for Leopard II and T-90 engines
Ah, I did forget that tank's engine as well.  Odd, that...

And yes, I did miss your point; I thought you were ragging on it because it came from a tractor plant. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on October 06, 2014, 09:55:07 am
Yeah, but on what facts do you base your assumptions that russians will produce shittier engines and tanks compared to the west? Because they're just russians? That makes no sense honestly.

And if we're going to take the price into assesing the quality of these tanks than the Russians can by all means field more of their slightly inferior tanks in which case the tables are pretty much equal.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 06, 2014, 10:47:34 am
Yeah, but on what facts do you base your assumptions that russians will produce shittier engines and tanks compared to the west? Because they're just russians? That makes no sense honestly.

And if we're going to take the price into assesing the quality of these tanks than the Russians can by all means field more of their slightly inferior tanks in which case the tables are pretty much equal.
He's Ukrainian.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 06, 2014, 04:55:38 pm
God damn I love battle tractors.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BlindKitty on October 07, 2014, 12:47:49 am
Maybe on the mere fact that apparently there is nothing Russkies made that is better than the counterparts from other countries? They are unable to produce anything good enough to be exported in significant numbers, as far as I know, and their main exports are raw materials. Why would their tank engines be any different? It is hard to have one part of the industry kept on the world-top standard when the rest falls apart all around you.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 07, 2014, 01:09:31 pm
China exports a lot of things into other markets.

Does that means that their goods are better than the counterparts from the other countries?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on October 07, 2014, 01:42:34 pm
There's also the fact that most of the countries that would buy russian tanks can now either afford to develop and build their own or buy the pricier western ones.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on October 07, 2014, 01:44:42 pm
China exports a lot of things into other markets.

Does that means that their goods are better than the counterparts from the other countries?

Define better.

Cheaper could be better.

As the Red Army says - quantity is a quality all of its own.

Though, do remember that superior training and superior weaponry have, when taken together, a geometric effect on overall military strength. Well-trained, well-equipped troops can stand up to many more times their lesser brethren than linear arithmetic would seem to indicate.

 :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 07, 2014, 02:15:01 pm
China exports a lot of things into other markets.

Does that means that their goods are better than the counterparts from the other countries?

Define better.

Cheaper could be better.

As the Red Army says - quantity is a quality all of its own.

Though, do remember that superior training and superior weaponry have, when taken together, a geometric effect on overall military strength. Well-trained, well-equipped troops can stand up to many more times their lesser brethren than linear arithmetic would seem to indicate.

 :P
In short, at a somewhat comparable technological level:
Advantage in morale > advantage in organization > advantage in logistics > advantage in equipment.

You can see what happens when an army lacks morale and organization in Iraq. They had superior logistics and superior equipment, but all these things are useless without morale and organization to back it up. Thus, they lost against ISIS, horribly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on October 07, 2014, 02:21:45 pm
Quote
China exports a lot of things into other markets.

Does that means that their goods are better than the counterparts from the other countries?
In their price category: Yep. Absolutely.
In fact China is in top ten countries for a lot of things.

Can you name Russian brand as successful as Lenovo or Huawei? Why can't Putin, supreme lord and great ruler, organize anything of that level?

BTW, I am absolutely sure that Chinise weapons are decade ahead of Russian

Why China is only number three arms exporter despite their expertise in making budget variants of everything?  There are many reasons for that, but I think that the main one is:

Largest importers are either one of likely opponents of China (India) or prefer quality over quantity (United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, NATO)

Quote
There's also the fact that most of the countries that would buy russian tanks can now either afford to develop and build their own or buy the pricier western ones.
And that is what they do, no?

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on October 07, 2014, 02:24:11 pm
China exports a lot of things into other markets.

Does that means that their goods are better than the counterparts from the other countries?

Define better.

Cheaper could be better.

As the Red Army says - quantity is a quality all of its own.

Though, do remember that superior training and superior weaponry have, when taken together, a geometric effect on overall military strength. Well-trained, well-equipped troops can stand up to many more times their lesser brethren than linear arithmetic would seem to indicate.

 :P
In short, at a somewhat comparable technological level:
Advantage in morale > advantage in organization > advantage in logistics > advantage in equipment.

You can see what happens when an army lacks morale and organization in Iraq. They had superior logistics and superior equipment, but all these things are useless without morale and organization to back it up. Thus, they lost against ISIS, horribly.

That, and it is hard to fight against someone who is willing to die for their cause, and as such has no regard for self preservation in combat - in the manner of an ISIS fanatic. I have spoken to serving soldiers and veterans, and the consensus of opinion is that it is hard to fight against someone with no fear of death. What can you do with your training and equipment when people are willing to rush machine gun posts, or suicide attack a tank?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: andrea on October 07, 2014, 02:30:34 pm

That, and it is hard to fight against someone who is willing to die for their cause, and as such has no regard for self preservation in combat

hence why morale is first on Sergarr's list.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on October 07, 2014, 02:36:27 pm
Actually China isn't all that advanced as far as electronics and high tech are concerned. Most of their big name companies are foreign investments for the most part and their military is generally a step behind both Russia and most of the West. Mostly becase they're not trying to compete with them but with India and to a certain extent Japan/SK.

One of the biggest reasons they are trying to bring Taiwan into China without resorting to any violence is because they want the IT industry they have there that China needs to develop some of the more advanced stuff for their military.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on October 07, 2014, 02:56:03 pm
Can you name Russian brand as successful as Lenovo or Huawei? Why can't Putin, supreme lord and great ruler, organize anything of that level?
90s m8

they destroyed most of our high-tech industries
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Phmcw on October 07, 2014, 03:04:15 pm
It's not the first time in history that an army had to face that, you know? Do you think England never had to face fanatics? Or Russia for that matter. Basically, provided you have combat abilities in their home country, you kill everyone untill no one have the will to fight. Chechnya is a textbook example.

No Europe was not fan of going in that war. As for acting like the weird police force of a puppet government, I'm not entirely sure why the DoD is still trying. It never worked. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 17, 2014, 03:08:58 pm
Derail expatriated; what defines a warrior and what defines a soldier? How awesome was Baibars?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on December 17, 2014, 03:15:55 pm
I'd say a warrior is someone who has the willingness to fight for something they believe in, or for someone or something they want to protect and is willing to do that regardless of wether they recieve any help or not.

Esentially, I'd call a father taking up arms to protect his family a warrior. He doesn't need to have training, just the willingness.

A solider on the other hand would be someone who fights because they are trained to do so and have been told to fight, their beliefs do not enter the equation here. If they do then they are poor soliders (which is not to say they are poor humans, just shit at doing their job).

Also who the fuck is Baibars?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on December 17, 2014, 03:18:07 pm
I'd say a warrior is someone who has the willingness to fight for something they believe in, or for someone or something they want to protect and is willing to do that regardless of wether they recieve any help or not.

Esentially, I'd call a father taking up arms to protect his family a warrior. He doesn't need to have training, just the willingness.

A solider on the other hand would be someone who fights because they are trained to do so and have been told to fight, their beliefs do not enter the equation here. If they do then they are poor soliders (which is not to say they are poor humans, just shit at doing their job).

Also who the fuck is Baibars?

Wikipedia says Baibars was a Mamluk/Egyptian/Islamic leader who fought against the Crusaders and the Mongols, to some degree of success.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on December 17, 2014, 03:18:36 pm
A warrior is someone who fights for something personal (ideas or family) mostly by himself, a soldier is someone who fights for the state while being supported by said state.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 17, 2014, 03:39:03 pm
Wikipedia says Baibars was a Mamluk/Egyptian/Islamic leader who fought against the Crusaders and the Mongols, to some degree of success.
Completely wrecked the Crusaders and the Mongolians and taunted his enemies with ruthless ability.

Personally I say the difference between a soldier and a warrior is that a warrior is a fighter and a soldier is a part of an army; greater discipline lies with the soldier.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on December 17, 2014, 03:41:37 pm
There's the idea in fantasy/sci-fi that a warrior is worth more than a soldier.  Possibly due to the warrior's greater likelihood of being a protagonist and the faceless nature of storm troopers.

Soldiers tend to be cooperative critters, never gaining too much individual face-time, and warriors are glorified for their individualism and often personal reasons for fighting.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 17, 2014, 03:47:12 pm
I would be rather amused by a protagonist warrior charging into a formation of soldiers and just getting absolutely wrecked. Might make for a short story though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on December 17, 2014, 04:09:22 pm
I would be rather amused by a protagonist warrior charging into a formation of soldiers and just getting absolutely wrecked. Might make for a short story though.

Nah, we just have to make the faceless mooks the protagonists, instead of an improbably successful lone gunman. That's not something you see too much of though, outside of mostly terrible Star Wars fan fiction.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on December 17, 2014, 04:11:00 pm
But what kind of end would a story about faceless mooks have?

It should have some profound and deep meaning, to be eligible for drama rewards.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: pisskop on December 17, 2014, 04:12:38 pm
But what kind of end would a story about faceless mooks have?

It should have some profound and deep meaning, to be eligible for drama rewards.
300 Stormtroopers: The story of the tragic loss of a unit.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 17, 2014, 04:26:38 pm
Saving private Bob
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 17, 2014, 04:27:05 pm
I would be rather amused by a protagonist warrior charging into a formation of soldiers and just getting absolutely wrecked. Might make for a short story though.

Nah, we just have to make the faceless mooks the protagonists, instead of an improbably successful lone gunman. That's not something you see too much of though, outside of mostly terrible Star Wars fan fiction.
They aren't faceless mooks, but plenty of stories have soldier protagonists who wipe the floor with their warrior enemies through discipline and qualitative superiority.  Unlike pisskop, I'd actually argue it's a bigger sci-fi staple than the opposite case (with a few prominent exceptions, such as Star Wars), since humans tend to fight as soldiers when contrasted with warrior races (from Klingon to Kzinti) in part because they view it as a craft instead of a cultural imperative.  Aliens that tend to be more unified and disciplined than humans tend to also be portrayed as, well, dehumanizing, ranging from strict and authoritarian on up to outright malevolent hive-mind. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 22, 2014, 05:48:17 pm
There's a good argument to be made that Hitler went for Stalingrad mostly because it carried Stalin's name. Not that it wasn't of strategic importance as well, but that alone wouldn't have justified makinng the city the slaughterhouse it became.
Rereading the thread, this caught my eye a second time more than the first. Thinking about it, Hitler did do a lot of awful shite bad calls in war for the purpose of propaganda. The hilarious waste of resources that was the occupied channel islands come to mind, Hitler spent a 1/5th of the resources he sent towards building the atlantic wall towards what surmounted to building Fortresses on British soil for the sole reason that it was British soil. The man loved the image and lost the bigger picture.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on December 22, 2014, 10:30:47 pm
Yes that would have been stupid if that was the reason.

Stalingrad was a major rail hub and was located near the oil fields that were powering the Soviet economy.  If the Germans took Baku but not Stalingrad, the soviets could launch a counteroffensive and retake it.  The Soviets were highly dependent on rail transport for their offensives in 1942.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 21, 2015, 01:55:32 pm
It would be wiser if the Swiss are goaded to attack.
In fact, you can actually declare war, maintain blockade, and do nothing. No drafts, nothing whatsoever, just make sure that no swiss watch can leave their lands, no millionaires can enter their lands, and telephone lines - thus SWIFT - is cut. They have to surrender sooner or later.
Regardless, my point on Monaco and BVI still stands. Monaco, for example, if France cooperates should fall in 1 hour.
Invading the Swiss is about as likely to result in success as invading Afghanistan or Texas. Likewise, trying to goad the Swiss into leaving their mountains is about as likely to result in success as making a Texan leave Texas.

If the Swiss go down the sheer amount of damage they would cause to the EU would far exceed all damage done to Switzerland, even if the damage was so severe as to make Switzerland cease to exist. There's no surprise that the Swiss have recently done military excersizes aimed at defending against French "mobs" (with strong quotation marks). If the EU declared war on Switzerland, a blockade would be possible with the agreement of France, Germany, Austria and Italy (and Liechtenstein, but who cares). A financial blockade would be considerably harder, as the EU would then also have to get the compliance of every major financial center from New York to Tokyo (and good luck convincing London to put its pound to war against Switzerland). It is notable that Russia staved off economic collapse due to sanctions from America and the EU with forex reserves of $385.5B, whilst heavily dependent on oil, whilst oil prices plummeted to record lows. Switzerland's economy is highly diversified, the country can itself be self-dependent, has the largest European gold reserve and forex reserves of $545.4B (one of the largest in the world), and assets all over the world. Excluding any Swiss financial war shenanigans (such as a Swiss-run EU hedge fund using the EU's own money to kill itself), the blockades alone would do horrendous damage to the poor southern and central european countries, and wreck the financial sectors of the western european countries something fierce. Pretty much all of the EU except eastern europe would have many shits to give. In regards to killing communication between Switzerland and the world; keep in mind North Korea can't stop its own citizens using telephones. Switzerland is considerably more connected to the world than North Korea.

The best strategy in my opinion is to first reduce its power, running an extensive propaganda campaign attacking Swiss history while trying to get maybe the French or German Swiss to vote to incorporate themselves into France or Germany (and by extension, the EU). The resulting political turmoil would be negligible for either European country and severe for Switzerland (what with a chunk of it being missing and all) and once Switzerland's capabilities to defend itself are marginalized, pressure it into joining the EU or just ducktape it in enough treaties until it is de facto is an EU province. Invasions of smaller European countries like Monaco is both hilarious and feasible, but not profitable. It can be justified on political grounds, but not economic.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on May 21, 2015, 02:24:10 pm
War is the obtaining of political objectives by other means.  A war with Switzerland would probably result in obtaining those political objectives swiftly and without a heavy toll of blood.

And this whole fortress Switzerland thing is quite an exageration.
Near Bern: https://www.google.com/maps/@46.956274,7.502604,3a,75y,328.91h,85.25t/data=!3m5!1e1!3m3!1sI9mogt7J6-YAAAQo8CDqaA!2e0!3e11
^Not exactly the most difficult terrain

Looking out towards Germany from Basel:
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.519087,7.654746,3a,75y,340.16h,87.82t/data=!3m5!1e1!3m3!1szh96Tzs4np0AAAQW-biwXg!2e0!3e11

The indomitable mountains around Zurich:
https://www.google.com/maps/@47.414473,8.421412,3a,75y,3.39h,82.71t/data=!3m4!1e1!3m2!1sjSvCqW949mtzeBfymGqgDA!2e0

Let's look towards France from a random place near Geneva:
https://www.google.com/maps/@46.150653,6.105745,3a,75y,217.38h,77.43t/data=!3m5!1e1!3m3!1sCAOWfIi7AY0AAAQZHxezhg!2e0!3e11

There are mountains in Switzerland but they are in the southern tourist trap country not the lowlands where everything important is.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 21, 2015, 02:43:59 pm
Quote
"To make a long story short, McPhee describes two things: how Switzerland requires military service from every able-bodied male Swiss citizen—a model later emulated and expanded by Israel—and how the Swiss military has, in effect, wired the entire country to blow in the event of foreign invasion. To keep enemy armies out, bridges will be dynamited and, whenever possible, deliberately collapsed onto other roads and bridges below; hills have been weaponized to be activated as valley-sweeping artificial landslides; mountain tunnels will be sealed from within to act as nuclear-proof air raid shelters; and much more.
It wouldn't be a bloodless war, it'd be the bloodiest war of this century. You can't even nuke the Swiss into submission!
Quote
To interrupt the utility of bridges, tunnels, highways, railroads, Switzerland has established three thousand points of demolition. That is the number officially printed. It has been suggested to me that to approximate a true figure a reader ought to multiply by two. Where a highway bridge crosses a railroad, a segment of the bridge is programmed to drop on the railroad. Primacord fuses are built into the bridge. Hidden artillery is in place on either side, set to prevent the enemy from clearing or repairing the damage.
THEIR COUNTRY IS A GIANT SELF DESTRUCT MECHANISM

Quote
    Near the German border of Switzerland, every railroad and highway tunnel has been prepared to pinch shut explosively. Nearby mountains have been made so porous that whole divisions can fit inside them. There are weapons and soldiers under barns. There are cannons inside pretty houses. Where Swiss highways happen to run on narrow ground between the edges of lakes and to the bottoms of cliffs, man-made rockslides are ready to slide.

The impending self-demolition of the country is "routinely practiced," McPhee writes. "Often, in such assignments, the civilian engineer who created the bridge will, in his capacity as a military officer, be given the task of planning its destruction."
I'm getting real neutral about this shit

Quote
Describing titanic underground fortresses—"networks of tunnels, caverns, bunkers, and surface installations, each spread through many tens of square miles"—McPhee briefly relates the story of a military reconnaissance mission on which he was able to tag along, involving a hydroelectric power station built inside a mountain, accessible by ladders and stairs; the battalion tasked with climbing down into it thus learns "that if a company of soldiers had to do it they could climb the mountain on the inside."
Fuck it, they've literally made Dwarf Fortress real (http://bldgblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/06/various-forms-of-lithic-disguise.html).


I am somewhat amused by the idea of the Swiss all going underground while the EU annexes the surface.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2015, 12:25:51 am
They didn't have radios. The Germans did.

Yeah, that's not actually true. (http://enpointe.perso.infonie.fr/di.html#bi)  A standard battalion had 21 radio operators and each platoon had a platoon radio operator.  That is a good number of radio operators for 1940.  Keep in mind that this is when the cutting edge of walkie talkie technology was a heavy backpack unit that made a soldier unable to do anything else.

I think there are misconceptions because after France lost so disasterously, people assumed that they must have sucked at fighting.  Thus they looked for problems at the tactical level.  France didn't suck at fighting though, so people are looking for problems at the tactical level that didn't exist and have to invent them by exaggerating differences.  In fact France probably had the better troops at the tactical level.  The problems existed at the strategic level.  Gamelin left a key sector practically undefended which let Germany bypass the French army.  It was only after this encirclement that Germany started winning fights against outmanuvered and cut off French units.  The earlier fights in Belgium between even forces with neither defending had not gone very well for the Germans.  The operational leadership problems are less exaggerated (very poor OODA loops).  But mostly it comes down to Ecclesiastes 9:11.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2015, 02:45:34 am
Plus you can look at the French rearguard where their fighting was fierce enough to buy the BEF enough time to escape at Dunkirk. They were proven fighters, but could not exactly work miracles
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on September 29, 2015, 08:34:39 am
Thus they looked for problems at the tactical level.  France didn't suck at fighting
5 gears backwards, 1 gear forward in case the enemy attacks from rear, white flags as standard equipment... yeah.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2015, 11:38:10 am
Thus they looked for problems at the tactical level.  France didn't suck at fighting
5 gears backwards, 1 gear forward in case the enemy attacks from rear, white flags as standard equipment... yeah.
It's a running joke about French rifles having excellent resell value, as they've never been fired and only been dropped once
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ghazkull on September 29, 2015, 12:08:02 pm
Plus you can look at the French rearguard where their fighting was fierce enough to buy the BEF enough time to escape at Dunkirk. They were proven fighters, but could not exactly work miracles

Actually the main reason for the BEF to escape at Dunkirk was Hitler deciding to send the Luftwaffe to bomb the evacuation ships and dunkirk instead of sending in his Tank Divisions. The main reason for that was our dear Goering badgering Hitler long enough for him giving up and just allowing him to show off the German Luftwaffe...which as we know by now thoroughly backfired as hundreds of thousands of british escaped.

If Hitler had have (or is it have had?) sense to send in the Tank Division at Dunkirk to take the damn city instead of idling around, the result might have been an early surrender of Great Britain as all those three-hundred thousand men of their would have been captured or killed there.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2015, 12:23:56 pm
Actually the main reason for the BEF to escape at Dunkirk was Hitler deciding to send the Luftwaffe to bomb the evacuation ships and dunkirk instead of sending in his Tank Divisions.

Because sending unsupported tank divisions against the largest massed concentration of anti-tank guns in history so far, with support from battleship bombardment, would have gone fantastically.

German generals liked to blame Hitler for every failure once the dust settled.  He made a convenient scapegoat.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on September 29, 2015, 12:41:57 pm
I am pretty sure that Rommel was around the Dunkirk at the time and was actually specifically summoned by Hitler to Berlin to stop him from pushing on. And considering his fame and whatnot, I am going to assume that if left unatended (in the absence of orders, go find something and kill it!), Rommel would perform Sea Lion in 1940 using captured British ships from Dunkirk. Because why the fuck not, it's Techno Rommel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90w21LtXNb4), he's better than Disco Hitler!
Also, actually, wouldn't the best idea be sending both Luftwaffe and panzers?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2015, 01:46:32 pm
No I mean the generals insisted that all Hitler's ideas were bad and theirs were brilliant.

That dumb Hitler, he insisted they attack through Sedan... and resulted in the largest encirclement in history.  That dumb Hitler, he broke them away from Moscow... and resulted in the second largest encirclement in history.  A bunch of Generals on the ground could only see what was right in front of their faces and couldn't see the larger picture. Exhaust the panzer divisions fighting the BEF and the French have time to reinforce along the Sienne river.  But these were men like Rommel who always insisted that his mission was of the utmost importance and wasted precious resources on strategically meaningless goals.

It's a lot like the Siberian divisions myth.  The story was told through a series of silver bullet explanation.  The Panzers were unstoppable but then that stupid halt order.  German troops were in sight of Moscow but then those fearsome Siberians arrived.  The Maginot Line was unbreakable but then the Germans surprised the French by going around.  "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on September 29, 2015, 01:51:20 pm
Meanwhile Rommel was praised as a genius for proving an excellent case of how failure inevitably comes to those who ignore the maxim "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics" by repeatedly ignoring direct instructions from Hitler to stop wasting precious oil.
I CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER THE SOUND OF PANZERS ROLLING ALL OVER THE WORLD, I LITERALLY CAN'T HEAR BECAUSE THEY'RE KING TIGERS AND THEY GUZZLE ONE LITER PER 400 METERS, BUT THANKFULLY GERMAN ARMY HAS ENOUGH FUEL BECAUSE THEY'RE ALL OVER BAGHDAD RIGHT NOW THANKS TO ROMMEL NOT GIVING A SHIT ABOUT ORDERS!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ghazkull on September 29, 2015, 02:26:57 pm
Actually the main reason for the BEF to escape at Dunkirk was Hitler deciding to send the Luftwaffe to bomb the evacuation ships and dunkirk instead of sending in his Tank Divisions.

Because sending unsupported tank divisions against the largest massed concentration of anti-tank guns in history so far, with support from battleship bombardment, would have gone fantastically.

German generals liked to blame Hitler for every failure once the dust settled.  He made a convenient scapegoat.

As far as i recall there were no battleships, there was mostly a fleet of fishermen with their boats and trawlers. But that aside, Hitler had some strategic genius every now and then, Dunkirk was not one of them. The fact that he didnt send in troops into Dunkirk is the only reason all those british escaped. Now you can of course argue that fighting them would have held them up,

but a) most of them were basically pretty close to surrendering already and had abandoned their weapons and gear in general,
and b) those tank divisions were sitting around dunkirk the entire time during the cities bombardement. Its not like they were held up. They just sat around on orders of Adolf.

Now as for Rommel, you might argue he thought for strategically useless targets but the fact is that germany should have mabye invested more troops in africa. Having Oil from North Africa and the Iraq would have allowed them a far better outcome in Russia. A Properly supported Africa Campaigns would have led to a safer mediterranean, more oil and a lot of freed up italian support. And while you can argue the competence of said Italian Units they would at least have freed up several Garrisons in Western and Eastern Europe, which could have been deployed eastwards.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2015, 02:43:41 pm
b) those tank divisions were sitting around dunkirk the entire time during the cities bombardement. Its not like they were held up. They just sat around on orders of Adolf.

Tank divisions in 1940 weren't like tank divisions today, or even tank divisions in 1943.  Even successful fighting would rapidly deplete their strength through damaged vehicles.  Yes more British soldiers would have been captured but it means the Germans cant press the attack afterwards.  The Germans need to actually conquer France.  They had a huge stroke of luck in that the Sedan attack succeeded beyond their wildest imagination.  Giving the French time to stabilize the front and they quickly are back to their original problem: they only have a couple weeks of ammunition left.  Remember, in WWI the French were driven back to the banks of the Seine but then held the front.

It's a bit like saying that Germany should have gone for goal 8 in the 2014 world cup.  Well you shouldn't just assume that the first 7 goals are going to happen.  The German airforce had already taken heavy losses at this point, now you want to squander the mobile divisions and artillery ammo reserves and then just assume they can waltz into Paris after giving the French another week to prepare.

Now as for Rommel, you might argue he thought for strategically useless targets but the fact is that germany should have mabye invested more troops in africa.

No the fact is that Germany couldn't put more troops in Africa because of the physical capacity limits of the ports they used and the fact that Rommel wanted his supplies sent two thousand kilometers through desert roads.  Van Crevald has a wonderful account in Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton and it's a book that renders most of the writing on the theatre rubbish.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ghazkull on September 29, 2015, 03:01:50 pm
Meh, i don't think at that point that Dunkirk was even remotely close to holding out for another week. Those troops there weren't orderly retreating anymore they were fleeing the theater headlong.

And we are not talking about a negligible amount of British Soldiers. We are talking about 300,000 of them, at that point thats 1/3rd of the British Army. Thats a crippling blow and would definetly remove Britain from any offensive actions or even directly supporting the French for quite a long time.

Now your argument would stand if we would assume that all those troops around dunkirk had historically abandoned the siege of the city while the airforce continued bombing the town but fact is that those troops sat around for the entire siege around teh city doing exactly fuck all besides sieging it. THey were not fighting the french as you say above but were siegeing the city until finally the last of the british had fled.

Now if they would have moved in with their tanks the time period the siege had taken (i think it was a week?) would have been severly shorter and the french would have had even less time to recover, adding to that the 300.000 losses to the british that would have been more successful than what happened historically.

As for the African Theatre, i will concede the point, i would have to read up on that at the moment and would propably only find that you are right  :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2015, 03:23:43 pm
propably only find that you are right  :P

(http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/239/112/29e.jpg)

Meh, i don't think at that point that Dunkirk was even remotely close to holding out for another week.

They held out for 10 days after the German attack started historically.  And it's not like all the German forces were in position to attack on the 24th.

Those troops there weren't orderly retreating anymore they were fleeing the theater headlong.

Dont know where you get that impression from.  They had just launched a counter attack immediately before withdrawing to Dunkirk.  They also had the French 1st and 2nd DLM which were pretty much the most badass troops in the French army.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2015, 03:31:24 pm
MAINIAC GROWS STRONGER ON YOUR CONCESSIONS
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 29, 2015, 03:44:29 pm
MAINIAC GROWS STRONGER ON YOUR CONCESSIONS

Much like the Wehrmacht, everytime someone surrenders to me it means I have new weapons.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ghazkull on September 29, 2015, 04:55:48 pm
Well as i see it on the 24th all that was defending dunkirk and those three hundred thousand fleeing folks was a single batallion of british troops. Had the ffive divisions under rundstedt attacked then they would have taken the city iwthin the day or maybe two days or something.

However as the Halt Order came from either Rundstedt or Adolf, they sat around two days doing nothing.
Meanwhile the French and British rallied quite a bunch of men and shored up their defenses...which caused the siege to draw out. Now by this point we are not talking about panicked men anymore (although a lot where still hanging around the beach doing their best to get the fuck out of dodge) at least not at the frontlines of Dunkirk. On top of that there were explicit orders to let the Luftwaffe do the Job, afte rall old Goering wanted to stroke his ego...which led to a rather successful evacuation.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Radio Controlled on September 29, 2015, 05:14:03 pm
Was gonna type something, realized I could just quote a post I once remembered seeing:

Quote from: https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/no-dunkirk-dunkirk-fails.262539/
Hitler goes Super Aryan and obliterates them...

Seriously, supposedly the Germans halted the attack because they were concerned about running out of supplies & wanted the logistics to catch up. Plus Goering wanted to be cool and use his Lutwaffe to beat the British and thus they escaped because... Goering (Okay not really). Lets say the German commander on the ground Gerd von Rundstedt was more aggressive and kept up the attack, and managed to make an evacuation too difficult leading the BEF to surrender.

I would say the British would probably keep fighting ,but would be in a worse position with alot of soldiers and experienced officers neutralized. I think Britain would become more paranoid of defending the Home Islands, and could very possibly have lost control of North Africa, because instead of just replacing war material lost they would have to train & equip entirely new units.
Quote
Nope. If von Rundstedt kept up the attack, he would have had his face kicked in and failed to stop the evacuation.

The Germans had outrun their logistics; they were low on fuel and ammo, but they were also low on spare parts, and a of of their vehicles were on the verge of becoming mechanical casualties. Early war tanks were not fantastically reliable. On top of that, they didn't have much in the way of things like artillery support, because they'd outrun that as well. The British, in contrast, had fallen back onto their supply lines, so they were well supplied with everything, on top of potential naval support and air support from the other side of the channel if things got dire enough.

Dunkirk itself was terrible tank country, being surrounded by boggy ground and protected along much of the outside of town by a large canal. The British had so many troops trapped there that they could afford to be strong everywhere; there was nowhere to outflank them, the only way in was a direct frontal assault. Dug in around the perimeter were several hundred QF 3.7" AA guns, the British answer to the German FlaK 88. Those weren't suitable for AT use in the field, like the 88, because they were heavier and the carriages weren't really well designed for it, but in a situation where they wouldn't have to be moved, they were just as deadly. Any German armoured attack would have ended up literally bogged down, in the open, right in the sights of all of those guns, and then they would have reached the canal and been unable to cross. It was, really, an incredibly strong defensive position, and the British were evacuating troops from there even before von Rundstedt halted.

The only way to swing it is for the British to surrender on account of the 'hopeless' situation, which isn't exactly inconceivable (they did it at Singapore, for example, despite being in a much stronger position relative to the Japanese invasion force). The BEF actually being destroyed militarily by the German forces facing it at that point is unlikely in the extreme.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on September 29, 2015, 11:33:55 pm
Just reading about the whole Dunkirk evacuations and would like to point out that the French actually did a heroic job of keeping the germans at bay.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on September 30, 2015, 02:49:57 pm
Remember, the truth of history is completely and totally dependant on what historian you're reading and whose aar's they're working off of.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 30, 2015, 05:59:22 pm
Just reading about the whole Dunkirk evacuations and would like to point out that the French actually did a heroic job of keeping the germans at bay.
Perhaps the roughest ones were the Brits chosen for the rearguard. 1 in 8 were told they'd not be going home... One way or another.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 12, 2016, 11:22:36 pm
Large armies are as much liabilities as strengths, hence why the China's army is far larger than the USA's but by virtue of flexibility and projection the USA remains the far more powerful. There's no point in a fist that can't swing
I bring this up because I just stumbled on India's ammunition shortage (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/why-is-the-indian-military-running-out-of-ammunition-10253351.html) because they have too many dudes in their army and not enough bullets coming out of their factories, if they were to fight a war right now they'd be out after 20 days, which is an interesting thought experiment

Indian hoplites wen?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on January 12, 2016, 11:33:00 pm
I guess they were hoping and maybe banking on that the first volley of nukes (if against Pakistan) would end it?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on January 12, 2016, 11:37:04 pm
Well, it seems to me that the only major opponents that would start a full shooting war with India are Pakistan and China; both of these would on the balance of probability be conducted in a limited zone of engagement with limited objectives in highly difficult terrain logistically where only a limited number of troops could be supplied regardless of how many bullets there are in New Delhi.  Any escalation would likely only occur in the case of Pakistan, and that would indeed go nuclear if it became a total war.  That said, as the article notes, this sounds like a combination of corruption, malaise, inefficiency, and inattentiveness, rather than any intentional hope.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 13, 2016, 05:22:42 pm
China's unlikely to invade India, even over Kashmir. Pakistan maybe, but nukes make things a spicy situation. Though in the event of an invasion how would Pakistan or China win?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on January 13, 2016, 05:53:45 pm
China's unlikely to invade India, even over Kashmir. Pakistan maybe, but nukes make things a spicy situation. Though in the event of an invasion how would Pakistan or China win?
You are correct that China has no reason to start a fight over Kashmir; China already has all of Kashmir (specifically, the region administered as Aksai Chin) that they actually want/need, and only India contests that.  The major site of conflict between China and India today is the region between the de jure border and the Line of Actual Control in Arunachal Pradesh, which is also Chinese-occupied but has recently become more of a point of contention.  That said, the fact that these in my opinion are the closest potential shots at getting into a full shooting war India has, however, should suggest how likely it is to me that India will get into a full shooting war. ;)

That said, in the event of an invasion, either nation would win by securing limited objectives and preventing India from retaking/taking the lands occupied, regardless of whether they come to permanent terms after or not.  An attempt to invade the Indian heartland would run into tremendous logistical difficulties, but is thankfully completely unnecessary to actually win.  China has the advantage over India as they already occupy pretty much everything they want in both Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh already, giving them a defensive advantage in difficult terrain, and in both areas have a huge advantage in available forces and in logistical development to move more forces and supplies to the front; that situation has only worsened for India since the last war in 1962, in spite of Modi's attempts to change the situation of late.  That is to say, China has in fact already demonstrated the viability of this strategy in how they took these regions in the first place.  Pakistan is, however, a wreck, coming up short in numbers, conventional arms, force projection, and domestic unity; short of nuclear arms, I don't believe they would stand a chance, especially if it escalated from Kashmir alone into a full war along the entire border. 

EDIT: Grammar pass.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on January 13, 2016, 09:19:27 pm
Quote
In India, the norm is that WWR should last for 40 days of intense fighting, allowing time for production to be ramped up and delivered to the military.


This isn't a thing. A modern, conventional war burns expendables much faster than a country is going to be able to produce.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on January 13, 2016, 11:05:10 pm
Quote
In India, the norm is that WWR should last for 40 days of intense fighting, allowing time for production to be ramped up and delivered to the military.


This isn't a thing. A modern, conventional war burns expendables much faster than a country is going to be able to produce.
No, that part isn't a thing; that's in fact what they expect.  The "thing" is that India only actually has enough for half that at the most in spite of their planning, which means that there is an unfortunate gap of 20-30 days (depending on weapon) where they won't have anything to fire between the point where their pre-war supplies run out and purchases from other countries arrive and combine with an increase in internal production to make up the difference.  Mind you, it still seems like a tempest in a teacup to me, but that is the "thing", insofar as it is a thing. :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on January 13, 2016, 11:39:06 pm
Quote
In India, the norm is that WWR should last for 40 days of intense fighting, allowing time for production to be ramped up and delivered to the military.


This isn't a thing. A modern, conventional war burns expendables much faster than a country is going to be able to produce.

Well it's hard to say given that no developed country has come anywhere near full mobalization in like 50 years.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on January 15, 2016, 06:53:30 am
Isn't that the case for most countries, with the possible exception of the US? I remember France needing special deliveries of bombs to sustain their campaign again ISIS, and that's far from "intense fighting".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 04, 2016, 05:32:12 am
I say we take this discussion to the Armchair General (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=141793.msg6738454#msg6738454) thread and really pull it to pieces there.
Well what would happen in a large scale war is:

One side would get air superiority- the other side would have their HQ destroyed|
To prevent that, they'd have to have a non-readily-discernable base.
Ergo, guerrilla warfare.
Has any war ever been won via decapitation? That is to say, the enemy deliberately managing to destroy their opponent's "HQ"? The only close example I can think of is fictional, from the comic Über (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cber_%28comics%29), when-
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Three million bakers' sons with rifles and hats are no longer useful, since an enemy with proper equipment could field assets they are legitimately incapable of disabling.
https://youtu.be/jzihQE1O27g?t=1m36s

Quote from: Indie Nydell
The British regulars [in World War 1] were a paid, professional army of well-trained and very often battle-experienced soldiers; no conscription. Now there is really...no question, in my mind, at least, that the British professionals were the best soldiers in the world at the outbreak of the war, but, there weren't that many of them. There were around 100,000 of them against, for starters, a couple million German conscripts, right? By the end of 1914, that professional, British army, was no more. It was replaced by volunteers, and eventually conscripts- [...] See the British had relied on that small, very well-trained army [...] and this, did not work so well in mainland Europe.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on March 04, 2016, 05:52:13 am
That isn't the issue Amp is suggesting though, as far as I can tell. A better trained force can be overwhelmed with numbers, because the trained soldiers are irreplaceable. A better equipped army is much harder, since not only are they presumably running a better casualty ratio, their casualties are as replaceable as the enemy's.

And quite aside from that, I am skeptical that we will see total war until a nation develops a near-perfect missile shield. And if we do, I still don't see huge numbers of infantry being deployed because of massively superior force multipliers. WWI was a century ago - it's difficult to quantify how relevant data from that era is to the current era, but it's probably safe to say that it's nowhere near a perfect comparison.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 04, 2016, 05:53:34 am
Amp said "no longer useful". Pointing out that it was very useful 100 years ago doesn't disprove his point.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 04, 2016, 07:12:44 am
Amp said "no longer useful". Pointing out that it was very useful 100 years ago doesn't disprove his point.


These days, a conscript army is literally more trouble than it's worth, just in straight dollar expenditure. Professional soldiers take time to train, more time than you get when rotating people through every year.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 07:58:14 am
Amp said "no longer useful". Pointing out that it was very useful 100 years ago doesn't disprove his point.


These days, a conscript army is literally more trouble than it's worth, just in straight dollar expenditure. Professional soldiers take time to train, more time than you get when rotating people through every year.


Dont you think that it depends on what tasks the military is required to achieve, which include being a deterrent against potential hostilities? Quantity does indeed have a quality all of its own(if well equipped, even if lacking in training due to not being professionals). That said, conscript army doesnt IMHO need to be a badly trained army either.

There are still militaries out where special forces, navy, pilots etc. and headquarters and most of the middle and higher levels of leadership are professional but the rank and file are, in a war, conscripts.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on March 04, 2016, 08:00:45 am
These days, a conscript army is literally more trouble than it's worth, just in straight dollar expenditure.
*cough* Israel *cough*
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 04, 2016, 08:25:17 am
Has any war ever been won via decapitation?

Persia twice, once when Alexander the Great killed the emperor, once when Muhammad's army did.  The battle of Manzinkert.  The conquest of Constantinople in the 3rd crusade.  Cortez and Pizarro both used it to great effect.  The defeat of the Godwins.  The Peoples Republic of China would have never taken over China if they hadn't kidnapped the Chinese president in 1936.  The battle of San Jacinto won the Texan revolution in one clean sweep.  The German invasion of France in 1940 to a lesser extent.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 08:31:36 am
France in 1940? Pocketing and cutting off most of the enemy's military might isnt usually count as decapitation.  :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on March 04, 2016, 08:37:10 am
But they lost Paris and waved a white flag while places like Maginot Line should have held out waaaaaaay longer.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: RedKing on March 04, 2016, 08:41:28 am
Has any war ever been won via decapitation?
The defeat of the Godwins.
And no one was compared to Hitler ever again.  :P


I'd have to quibble over the Chinese Civil War. The Xi'an Incident gave the CCP some much-needed breathing room, but it didn't win the war. Plus, it was the threat of Imperial Japan as much as anything that led to the truce between the KMT and the CCP.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 04, 2016, 08:43:57 am
France in 1940? Pocketing and cutting off most of the enemy's military might isnt usually count as decapitation.  :P

"to a lesser extent".  The confusion and inaction of the allies after the German exploitation of their rear areas is what created the channel pocket in the first place.

I'd have to quibble over the Chinese Civil War. The Xi'an Incident gave the CCP some much-needed breathing room, but it didn't win the war.

It prevented defeat.  It wasn't a sufficient condition but it was a necessary condition.

And no one was compared to Hitler ever again.  :P

Not without the Godwinsons egging them on.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 08:47:50 am
But they lost Paris and waved a white flag while places like Maginot Line should have held out waaaaaaay longer.

Cant be off topic in AGG: They lost Paris weeks after the British had already evacuated and France's own military was considerably reduced - that time they just didnt lose their army in wounded and killed men. It was a hopeless situation: losing Paris was a result of France already having, for practical purposes, lost the war and being unable to defend the city, not the other way around.

"to a lesser extent".  The confusion and inaction of the allies after the German exploitation of their rear areas is what created the channel pocket in the first place.

It was reacted to, but the Allies were incapable to stop the thrust into their rear and towards the Channel. IMHO decapitation usually refers to elimitation of leadership or absolutely necessary key units leading to victory, not encirclements of entire army groups such as in France 1940 or in operation Barbarossa.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on March 04, 2016, 09:03:42 am
So the original argument was: is massed infantry a dying breed?

To disprove that statement, you'd have to say that on the whole it is more effective than the combination of armor, air, and sea, special forces and other technologies.
I feel like even in the modern military the general infantry are relegated to peacekeeping work. They're there to fortify and staff a base so that other units can deploy from it.
(Or maybe that's just because 'chatting with the locals' is all the media seems to show)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 09:17:32 am
So the original argument was: is massed infantry a dying breed?

To disprove that statement, you'd have to say that on the whole it is more effective than the combination of armor, air, and sea, special forces and other technologies.
I feel like even in the modern military the general infantry are relegated to peacekeeping work. They're there to fortify and staff a base so that other units can deploy from it.
(Or maybe that's just because 'chatting with the locals' is all the media seems to show)

Most modern conscript armies look nothing alike WW1 era armies - they're not just infantry. There are several conscript armies with more fighters, artillery pieces and tanks per capita than the US even, yet most of their infantry is still mechanized and well equipped. Among the cons is that their immediate round the clock readiness to use the masses of equipment is lower and mobilization takes time.

edit: Hmm, I think you didnt comment on the professional army debate. More on topic, I think infantry is still powerful and cost effective in various environments. Mobility is just so important that they move on wheels these days. It could be a bit of a misconception from movies and other media that infantry has died out somehow; there never was so much of it in the first place in WW1 or 2 either. When the US Army fought in Europe, infantry was in the minority, only 15% or so of men were in it. Maybe its just difficult to make a movie about people who just tow a gun around the countryside and reload it, or cook, or drive a truck, or maintain aircraft.  :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 04, 2016, 09:20:20 am
These days, a conscript army is literally more trouble than it's worth, just in straight dollar expenditure.
*cough* Israel *cough*

Could have a much better military if they went to a volunteer model, but the cultural control is judged worth the inefficiency, apparently.


Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on March 04, 2016, 11:15:39 am
These days, a conscript army is literally more trouble than it's worth, just in straight dollar expenditure.
*cough* Israel *cough*
The problem is that people somehow think a conscript army *must* be worse in training than a professional army simply because most examples of conscription in public parlance include the Vietnam War draft (the unwilling led by the unqualified commanded by the unknowing to "protect" the ungrateful), as well as various African, Latin American, and Arab countries, none of which inspire thoughts of military competence.  Israel is a valid demonstration of the counterexample.  Hopefully, South Korea will never need to prove likewise as well, but it is another potential counterexample with a professional core to be bolstered by mass conscription.  The Swiss are yet another. 

Basically, if the relative quality of two armies is anything approaching equivalent, Lancaster laws start to apply - the effectiveness of force A against B is approximately the square of the numeric ratio between the two.  In other words, if you have twice the numbers, you'll have around four times the effectiveness; three times the numbers, nine times the effectiveness.  Cases like Rorke's Drift tend to be rather exceptional; when one cheap one-person weapon such as a MANPAD can take out your fancy multi-million fighter jet, conscription gives you quick hands.  One of the chief weaknesses of Israel's strategic position has always been that its opponents outnumber it to a significant degree, as well as surrounding it in a position with no strategic depth.  Conscription is a viable answer to this issue - if the Arab armies had ever managed to get their collective heads out of their rears, a purely-professional army would have been run dry, and few strategic planners worth their salt should advocate a policy that not only assumes, but also relies upon the incompetence of their enemies.  The Yom Kippur war, for instance, would not have ended in an Israeli victory if not for the manpower reserves of the well-trained reservist force (the "conscripts") that could be called up quickly. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 04, 2016, 01:06:22 pm
Turning someone into a professional soldier that can operate modern weapons is *not* something that you can do with a standard conscription length of service. Believe me, I've spent more than one month trying to get South Korean conscripts to a level of baseline competence, and I eventually had to settle for baseline competence in the minimum number  of tasks possible.

You want a good soldier, you need at an absolute minimum, a solid year, and that's cutting it so short that there's going to be serious repercussions down the line. If you're running a standard 2 year conscription model, half your conscripts are going to need even more babysitting than the average Joe.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 04, 2016, 01:11:11 pm
That isn't the issue Amp is suggesting though, as far as I can tell. A better trained force can be overwhelmed with numbers, because the trained soldiers are irreplaceable. A better equipped army is much harder, since not only are they presumably running a better casualty ratio, their casualties are as replaceable as the enemy's.

And quite aside from that, I am skeptical that we will see total war until a nation develops a near-perfect missile shield.

And if we do, I still don't see huge numbers of infantry being deployed because of massively superior force multipliers. WWI was a century ago - it's difficult to quantify how relevant data from that era is to the current era, but it's probably safe to say that it's nowhere near a perfect comparison.
That's true. The better equipped force is going to win. There are exceptions, but they are certainly not the rule.

Agreed (not that the chances of there being a world war have anything to do with whether or not conscription is worth doing) but I don't think it's far off with the way laser technology is flying forwards. A missile shield would only need to make nuclear war ineffective, I think. It's not worth pushing the button if you're only going to take out one or two major cities. Maybe World War 3 will be a land war with short range tactical nukes. Take out the enemy's local anti-missile defenses then nuke them to finish them off.

Only if it is a very short war. A World War is a battle between first world countries so for the most part it can be assumed that there will be few to no equipment gaps for the most part, thus the point illustrated by my quote still stands, I think. Here's why: The whole point of conscription is that there are no professional forces left to draw on, or not enough of them to cover the front(s). There were millions of men fighting in 1914 and it still wasn't enough for either side. Earth is big. You can't fight everywhere at once, but if you have more men, you can fight in more places or outnumber your enemy in a few. Everyone wanted more men. If an urgent war happens, then the vets of Arab conflicts will do battle (Russian veterans of Syria, American and European veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan) and deplete one another. They will need to be replaced by men who haven't been training or fighting their entire career. Even better than waiting for them to die, augment them with untrained soldiers and outnumber your enemy from the outset. There are no two ways about it. If there is another war on the scale and length of the previous World Wars, conscription will happen.

-snip-
^^This. Motivation is another factor that's hard to quantify, but a proud force is a tough force. I'm not saying it's a replacement for training though.

Hmm, I think you didnt comment on the professional army debate. More on topic, I think infantry is still powerful and cost effective in various environments. Mobility is just so important that they move on wheels these days. It could be a bit of a misconception from movies and other media that infantry has died out somehow; there never was so much of it in the first place in WW1 or 2 either. When the US Army fought in Europe, infantry was in the minority, only 15% or so of men were in it. Maybe its just difficult to make a movie about people who just tow a gun around the countryside and reload it, or cook, or drive a truck, or maintain aircraft.  :)
Well I wouldn't necessarily say that. Most soldiers in any military are rear echelon troops, but there were (and still are) lots and lots of line infantry. 36,518 Combat Infantry Badges have been awarded to American soldiers who participated in the war in Afghanistan.

To disprove that statement, you'd have to say that on the whole it is more effective than the combination of armor, air, and sea, special forces and other technologies.
Is armor more effective on its own than a combination of air, sea, and infantry forces? No, because no one leaves behind their air/sea/armor/infantry assets when they fight a war.

Persia twice, once when Alexander the Great killed the emperor, once when Muhammad's army did.  The battle of Manzinkert.  The conquest of Constantinople in the 3rd crusade.  Cortez and Pizarro both used it to great effect.  The defeat of the Godwins.  The Peoples Republic of China would have never taken over China if they hadn't kidnapped the Chinese president in 1936.  The battle of San Jacinto won the Texan revolution in one clean sweep.  The German invasion of France in 1940 to a lesser extent.
Good examples.

Turning someone into a professional soldier that can operate modern weapons is *not* something that you can do with a standard conscription length of service. Believe me, I've spent more than one month trying to get South Korean conscripts to a level of baseline competence, and I eventually had to settle for baseline competence in the minimum number  of tasks possible.

You want a good soldier, you need at an absolute minimum, a solid year, and that's cutting it so short that there's going to be serious repercussions down the line. If you're running a standard 2 year conscription model, half your conscripts are going to need even more babysitting than the average Joe.
Related: I saw a nice video on British PMCs in Afghanistan. The Ghurkas who were training Afghan recruits had been working for a few weeks and were very, very frustrated with their progress.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 01:47:19 pm
Quote
Well I wouldn't necessarily say that. Most soldiers in any military are rear echelon troops, but there were (and still are) lots and lots of line infantry. 36,518 Combat Infantry Badges have been awarded to American soldiers who participated in the war in Afghanistan.

Out of how many deployed in total? What are the requirements for that badge? Any way, Iraq and Afghanistan were mostly kind of "peacekeeping" operations with a much weaker, guerrilla enemy(after the first weeks in Iraq) and relatively little heavy equipment used. The sides were asymmetric; they were completely different kind of conflicts than, say, the one US and NATO prepared to fight in Europe for half a decade.

Turning someone into a professional soldier that can operate modern weapons is *not* something that you can do with a standard conscription length of service. Believe me, I've spent more than one month trying to get South Korean conscripts to a level of baseline competence, and I eventually had to settle for baseline competence in the minimum number  of tasks possible.

You want a good soldier, you need at an absolute minimum, a solid year, and that's cutting it so short that there's going to be serious repercussions down the line. If you're running a standard 2 year conscription model, half your conscripts are going to need even more babysitting than the average Joe.

It doesn't take quite a full year for the Joe Average to become an adequate(standards may very?) infantryman or some non super difficult support role man? A year for leaders and more advanced stuff perhaps.

Yeah you cant just quickly train conscripts when they're about to be needed, they need that 6 months to a year or more. Just learning to live in a military takes several weeks, two months for some. Some never get used to it. Better have men continually trained and in put to reserve and back to exercises before things get hot, and that keeps the entire training system and command chain up as well, ready to be expanded.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 04, 2016, 02:26:05 pm
Quote
Well I wouldn't necessarily say that. Most soldiers in any military are rear echelon troops, but there were (and still are) lots and lots of line infantry. 36,518 Combat Infantry Badges have been awarded to American soldiers who participated in the war in Afghanistan.

Out of how many deployed in total?

What are the requirements for that badge?

Any way, Iraq and Afghanistan were mostly kind of "peacekeeping" operations with a much weaker, guerrilla enemy(after the first weeks in Iraq) and relatively little heavy equipment used. The sides were asymmetric; they were completely different kind of conflicts than, say, the one US and NATO prepared to fight in Europe for half a decade.
About 2.5 million over the course of more than 10 years. Not a lot of them saw action, but they were line infantry and they were there in great numbers.

The badge is awarded to infantrymen and Special Forces soldiers in the rank of Colonel and below, who personally fought in active ground combat while assigned as members of either an infantry, ranger or Special Forces unit, of brigade size or smaller, any time after 6 December 1941. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_Infantryman_Badge)

People say "it was a peacekeeping operation" like folks didn't suffer, fight, and die in that war. Forget the politics. To me the phrase belittles the actions of those men who did their best to keep one another alive out there.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 04, 2016, 02:40:26 pm
Quote
Well I wouldn't necessarily say that. Most soldiers in any military are rear echelon troops, but there were (and still are) lots and lots of line infantry. 36,518 Combat Infantry Badges have been awarded to American soldiers who participated in the war in Afghanistan.

Out of how many deployed in total? What are the requirements for that badge? Any way, Iraq and Afghanistan were mostly kind of "peacekeeping" operations with a much weaker, guerrilla enemy(after the first weeks in Iraq) and relatively little heavy equipment used. The sides were asymmetric; they were completely different kind of conflicts than, say, the one US and NATO prepared to fight in Europe for half a decade.

Turning someone into a professional soldier that can operate modern weapons is *not* something that you can do with a standard conscription length of service. Believe me, I've spent more than one month trying to get South Korean conscripts to a level of baseline competence, and I eventually had to settle for baseline competence in the minimum number  of tasks possible.

You want a good soldier, you need at an absolute minimum, a solid year, and that's cutting it so short that there's going to be serious repercussions down the line. If you're running a standard 2 year conscription model, half your conscripts are going to need even more babysitting than the average Joe.

It doesn't take quite a full year for the Joe Average to become an adequate(standards may very?) infantryman or some non super difficult support role man? A year for leaders and more advanced stuff perhaps.


No. Not just no, but hell no. Joe shows up out if OSUT and he's still pretty much completely useless. If you're *really* lucky, he might have learned enough to learn, but that's questionable, especially these days.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 04, 2016, 03:07:09 pm
Lancaster laws start to apply

Lancaster laws never even applied to battleships, let alone ground combat.  The variance out outcomes is way too high plus there is tons of autocorrelation.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 04, 2016, 03:23:22 pm
Lancaster laws start to apply

Lancaster laws never even applied to battleships, let alone ground combat.  The variance out outcomes is way too high plus there is tons of autocorrelation.
*Lanchester laws
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 04, 2016, 03:33:02 pm
I've been making that mistake for years.  :o
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 04:36:35 pm
No. Not just no, but hell no. Joe shows up out if OSUT and he's still pretty much completely useless. If you're *really* lucky, he might have learned enough to learn, but that's questionable, especially these days.

You and a great many of worlds militaries have a very different opinion on what is enough of training then... Or the material you have trained has been sub par somehow.

Perhaps in the big picture it isnt overly useful it is to give very advanced training to most infantry.

Theres advantages to being able to mobilize a large force within weeks... Conscripts or not. Especially when its their war and they're willing to fight.


People say "it was a peacekeeping operation" like folks didn't suffer, fight, and die in that war. Forget the politics. To me the phrase belittles the actions of those men who did their best to keep one another alive out there.

I didnt and that wasn't my point... Taleban didn't field motor rifle brigades let alone an air force. Infantry numbers may get inflated when the enemy is weak and few and you mostly need presence.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on March 04, 2016, 05:37:18 pm
I've been making that mistake for years.  :o
Same here, so you're not alone. >_<
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 04, 2016, 05:47:43 pm
You're going to want to look at combat action badge plus the combat infantry badge, then. Lots of people without 11B jobs did things in an identical manner.


No. Not just no, but hell no. Joe shows up out if OSUT and he's still pretty much completely useless. If you're *really* lucky, he might have learned enough to learn, but that's questionable, especially these days.

You and a great many of worlds militaries have a very different opinion on what is enough of training then... Or the material you have trained has been sub par somehow.

Perhaps in the big picture it isnt overly useful it is to give very advanced training to most infantry.

 

No. Not just no, but obviously no. The job of a modern infantryman isn't something simple. Korea War era superior numbers in wave tactics is roughly equal in usefulness to jumping back to horse cavalry.



But it's the armchair general thread, so believe what you'd like.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 06:43:43 pm
I never claimed it to be easy. I very well know that it isn't. But it isn't rocket science either.

When you're short on money and need to fill brigade after brigade just to secure national sovereignty you cant afford to fix every mistake and train perfect men, especially knowing that infantry small arms will only inflict small part enemy casualties. Not that infantry training isnt important for every infantryman's life, but the big picture weights the most. A year of training for the Joe Average still gets you much more than the average Taliban/ISIS jihadist or 1940s Chinese\Soviet\Korean penal company conscript in a bayonet human wave attack. Unless if your training program is incompetent and the trained unmotivated and unfit. Not Joe Averages willing to fight for their nation.

It cost the US what, on the average 2 million a year, per each man deployed in Afghanistan. They really should have been be able to do that cheaper; I know ours were there for fraction of that, partially because most of them weren't professionals but reservists. And likely did Taliban hunting just as well.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 04, 2016, 06:51:48 pm
Conscription isn't going to make it cheaper to ship supplies around the world.  It isn't going to make precision munitions cheaper.  It isn't going to reduce legacy healthcare costs for soldiers (to the contrary it will make them balloon.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 07:04:21 pm
Conscription isn't going to make it cheaper to ship supplies around the world.  It isn't going to make precision munitions cheaper.  It isn't going to reduce legacy healthcare costs for soldiers (to the contrary it will make them balloon.)

Please read: "partially". Our presence was about 250,000 usd/person/year. No missiles in that figure, but should one really need those anti guerrilla warfare other than for lack of better tools?

Why would conscription make legacy healthcare costs balloon?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 04, 2016, 07:22:33 pm
No missiles in that figure, but should one really need those anti guerrilla warfare other than for lack of better tools?

Conscription is going to reduce the need for indirect fire?  I dont think that would be a really popular strategy.

Quote
Why would conscription make legacy healthcare costs balloon?

More soldiers=more vets getting healthcare benefits.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 07:45:24 pm
No missiles in that figure, but should one really need those anti guerrilla warfare other than for lack of better tools?

Conscription is going to reduce the need for indirect fire?  I dont think that would be a really popular strategy.

Quote

Not what I said again. I was thinking about hunting Talibans in the mountains with attack helicopters and jets.

Why would conscription make legacy healthcare costs balloon?

More soldiers=more vets getting healthcare benefits.

Non issue for nations where healthcare benefits are exactly the same for basically everyone. And especially for those who also after a lost war wont be paying healthcare benefits to anyone ever again:  I dont think you are at all thinking about a situation where the potential opponents would be much stronger. For nations where the military and its capabilities exist first and foremost as a deterrent, theres little point in thinking about minor issues after a won or lost war, if accounting for them reduces its capabilities. This is the reason I thought that for example joining the Ottawa anti-personnel mine ban convention was a bad, bad idea(plus, it doesnt ban mine cluster bombs/missiles/rockets, because anti-personnel mines installed one by one are so much more dangerous to civilians than clusters shot out of an artillery piece or dropped from angels 20, right?).

Buck for bang in some arbitrary combat capability versus reference values is one thing, basic training(and advanced to key parts) and being able to arm and equipment a large portion of the population another. Stalin could ask, how many divisions does this professional army of Sweden's have?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on March 04, 2016, 08:37:18 pm
edit: Hmm, I think you didnt comment on the professional army debate.
I did, however I was playing with the original argument in the thread before we sent the discussion this way.

However in the same sense that foxholes were the 'fix' to the overpowered tank push, there's so many different things which could end the work of conscripts, and most of those would require surgical strikes.
I'm not saying that one Special forces soldier could rout a company (although it's happened before), but for things like gaining air superiority, decapitating the army or sighting in long-range bombardment - all things which are less force multipliers and more battlefield control - you'd rather trust the small, elite force to do it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 04, 2016, 10:06:00 pm
I did, however I was playing with the original argument in the thread before we sent the discussion this way.

However in the same sense that foxholes were the 'fix' to the overpowered tank push, there's so many different things which could end the work of conscripts, and most of those would require surgical strikes.
I'm not saying that one Special forces soldier could rout a company (although it's happened before), but for things like gaining air superiority, decapitating the army or sighting in long-range bombardment - all things which are less force multipliers and more battlefield control - you'd rather trust the small, elite force to do it.

Conscription army doesn't rule out using professional soldiers. Nor does conscript army equal massed foot infantry. It's not a game where one decides between getting a plane and 11 infantry off the shelf. Professional career officers fly fighter aircraft just about everywhere, but less demanding tasks need to be filled too. Professional officers may also lead(platoons and higher).

In the end it also doesn't matter how well one trained once hes at the receiving end of an artillery barrage. Nobody but Best Korea perhaps will start a war and not think it'll be won, and since wars are horrible, its best be so well prepared that none will ever think they'll win something facing you.

Usually discussions on conscription revolve around fairness; how it is felt to limit personal freedoms or how it at least is unequal within a society way or another(such as, only males get conscripted).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 04, 2016, 11:40:00 pm
It matters quite an lot, actually. Both the odds of being bracketed by that artillery, surviving it, surviving it and still able to complete a mission. Much less the counter battery work.

Can you run a conscript army with professional ncos and officers? Sure. Hell, the soviets did it largely without even the professional nco part. That just means that your leadership gets to spend their time babysitting instead of doing actual leadership.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 05, 2016, 10:43:56 am
Again, it depends on what kind of training your conscripts get (At one extreme, conscripted legionaries served 20 years), and what the alternative is. The US got the luxury of having two oceans between it an any threat, so it can take its time creating a proffessional army if needed. If Finland is attacked, it would at most have a few weeks to react.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on March 05, 2016, 11:26:51 am
In addition, it depends on what sort of war you want to fight. You simply are not going to take a bunch of green civvies off the streets and drop them into state of the art war fighting gear and get anywhere (even though ww2 stories of tanks rolling off the soviet production lines, onto the street to be crewed by whoever was nearby seem pervasive). However, partisan resistance movement? Sure, such things have been formed by experienced soldiers from little more than ragtag civilian groups - granted, often with help.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on March 05, 2016, 11:49:20 am
It matters quite an lot, actually. Both the odds of being bracketed by that artillery, surviving it, surviving it and still able to complete a mission. Much less the counter battery work.
I always wondered how this "every soldier has a same chance to die from an artillery strike" myth was formed. I think it is because people tend to overestimate effectiveness of artillery.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 05, 2016, 08:09:53 pm
Rather, not every soldier has the same chance to end up under a barrage. Artillery is pretty darn effective, when it shoots the right location. In Ukraine it continues to create 80%+ of casualties, as since 1914 at least or so. You just don't want to end be at the receiving end.

Again, it depends on what kind of training your conscripts get (At one extreme, conscripted legionaries served 20 years), and what the alternative is. The US got the luxury of having two oceans between it an any threat, so it can take its time creating a proffessional army if needed. If Finland is attacked, it would at most have a few weeks to react.

US also has the luxury of being stronger than any of its potential opponents in several ways and has a network of allies. Its own allies have the luxury of having US backing them up(Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc) or be one of the members of a strong alliance(NATO members).

1200 km of common border with the only possible threat, that is much stronger, and almost similar length of coastline don't make things easy. Wartime strength of 250,000 + 100,000 in immediate reserves(almost 7% of entire population) is IMHO, among the others, necessary. During the cold war it peaked at 500,000 at one point, over 12% of the population then. That 250,000 doesn't include a single foot unit. A fully professional army with at best a single tank brigade just wouldn't cut it.

At the moment the time it would take to mobilize the key units mainly manned by conscripts is less than a week. Air force, air defenses and the navy would likely be ready within 24 hours. Conscription allows to have all the fancy toys in similar numbers to everyone else, supporting (relatively speaking, again) a very large army, because most of the manpower is in reserve and equipment in storage. And, incidentally, more artillery and than clean socks. :P (to be 84 more Leopards by the end of the year) (http://www.puolustusvoimat.fi/wcm/23377c004b051094aed6ef6bd924eb2c/CBMFI16_annual.pdf?MOD=AJPERES)

One downside is that 90-something % of male population spends approximately a year less in working life.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on March 05, 2016, 10:02:05 pm
Quote
Rather, not every soldier has the same chance to end up under a barrage. Artillery is pretty darn effective, when it shoots the right location. In Ukraine it continues to create 80%+ of casualties, as since 1914 at least or so. You just don't want to end be at the receiving end.
There are huge difference in causalities when same artillery strikes properly prepared positions made by professional soldiers and when it strikes a crowd of armed civilians in open field.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 06, 2016, 03:19:42 am
Against third-rate artillery, maybe. Modern artillery, with time-on-target and guided munitions, will make a mincemeat out of everyone who has been hit, regardless of prepared positions and professionalism of troops.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Morrigi on March 06, 2016, 03:56:21 am
Guided munitions are only issued in limited numbers. The vast majority of shells in the inventories of the world powers and fired on the battlefields they're involved in are still good old-fashioned high explosive. Besides, guided shells are primarily intended for use against vehicles.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 06, 2016, 03:59:55 am
Against third-rate artillery, maybe. Modern artillery, with time-on-target and guided munitions, will make a mincemeat out of everyone who has been hit, regardless of prepared positions and professionalism of troops.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bremer_wall
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hesco_bastion

Prepared positions make it such that you need to be very, very accurate to be taken out, which means they HAVE to bring out precision guided munitions. I think nowadays the deviation is around 50m for a JDAM or an Excalibur (and getting smaller every day) so they really could effect the destruction of, say, a 10x10 bunker, without having to expend 100s of shells like you used to. But you've got to do that once for each prepared position. Against a decent FOB that's mobilized, it's going to take time. Not to mention that they're going to be doing the same thing to you in the meantime. You're in the open attacking him, that means the defender can use his batteries for counterfire on your formations that are in the open.

It also shouldn't be underestimated how much more survivable someone becomes when they transition from the standing position to the prone position, not even taking into account natural and prepared terrain he could use to cover himself.

Guided munitions are only issued in limited numbers. The vast majority of shells in the inventories of the world powers are still good old-fashioned high explosive.
Surely it can be said that in a first-world-on-first-world situation either side would be sure to have lots and lots available. I mean a shower of dumb bombs has it's uses since in an army versus army situation you don't have to worry about collateral, but I don't doubt everyone would have as many precision bombs and shells handy as they could get their hands on in order to take out snipers, armored vehicles, and infantry in cover.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 06, 2016, 04:31:50 am
Guided munitions are only issued in limited numbers. The vast majority of shells in the inventories of the world powers and fired on the battlefields they're involved in are still good old-fashioned high explosive. Besides, guided shells are primarily intended for use against vehicles.
Unguided shells are mostly useless. Guided shells and, generally, guided munitions are so much more effective at their jobs that everyone who can use them, uses them. ATGM missiles in Syria are used against infantry on a regular basis, and that's among a third-rate military. A first-rate military would use (and uses - look at how modern NATO fights) significantly more guided munitions than unguided ones, because firing unguided munitions is literally a waste of time and manpower, when you have guided munitions available.

All these "inventories" of unguided shells are mostly wasting storage space, and the only reason why they're still there is because 1) utilizing shells is really costly and dangerous, and 2) sometimes, you can modernize those into guided ones, like with JDAMs.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 06, 2016, 04:43:03 am
Unguided shells are mostly useless.
Maybe in the context of a war against insurgents. In a modern war they can be very useful against indiscriminate targets, like motor pools, warehouses, enemy encampments, and large enemy formations, where missing by 50 meters doesn't matter so much. They are also much, much easier on your wallet. Unguided shells are dirt cheap compared to the guided munitions.

http://www.pmulcahy.com/ammunition/howitzer_rounds.html

A 105mm Excalibur shell costs 68,000 dollars in 2016 (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/01/excalibur-goes-to-sea-raytheon-smart-artillery-shoots-back/). An unguided round costs about 1500 dollars. You can debate me on the exact number but I assure you it's somewhere in that neighborhood. 60 to 1 is a pretty strong ratio I would say. It's been said before, but it bears repeating: quantity has a quality all of it's own. Is every target you shoot at worth 68,000 dollars if a battery fires 60 shells that can potentially do the 60 times the damage (one for range and 59 more on target, but it should be said that by then infantry could have taken cover) and for the same amount of money it would cost to shoot a single guided munition?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 06, 2016, 05:15:15 am
Unguided shells are mostly useless.
Maybe in the context of a war against insurgents. In a modern war they can be very useful against indiscriminate targets, like motor pools, warehouses, enemy encampments, and large enemy formations, where missing by 50 meters doesn't matter so much. They are also much, much easier on your wallet. Unguided shells are dirt cheap compared to the guided munitions.
Actually it's in reverse - unguided shells are only useful against insurgents, which have insignificant forces and thus are unable to suppress or destroy either the launching devices or the supply lines.

Against a modern opponent, you won't be able to fire much more of unguided munitions than guided ones, before you get your unguided shell storage facilities destroyed by a precise-guided bomb or a drone-fired missile, or get your artillery wrecked by enemy's guided shells landing right on top of your artillery battalions. After that, it's just a matter of time until the rest of your forces is fixed by the enemy's heavy mechanized formations and destroyed completely by unerring deadly fire.

Like, why do you think all modern militaries invest in guided/precise/network-based stuff so hard? It's because it counters everything else. Just like stealth does. That's why Russian military is investing so hard in acquiring all of these things, you know.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on March 06, 2016, 06:36:41 am
PTW
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on March 06, 2016, 12:32:32 pm
Conscript, Professional - it all seems to come down to 'Screw that, Be the guy with the artillery'.
They have artillery? Don't waste money on troops. Have more, more advanced artillery, and shell their artillery to shit. Then shell their troops to shit.

When you realize that their standard infantryman is outfitted and trained towards the single purpose of killing your standard infantryman, and can do somewhere in the vicinity of JfS against a tank...
Well, massed infantry becomes a joke, or a bunch of bullet-sponges between the big armoured enemy, and the single dude trained in Javelin usage in your platoon.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on March 06, 2016, 01:25:08 pm
The thing is: People trained for killing infantrymen usually are pretty good at killing artillerymen too. The basic mechanics of bullet goes in, brain comes out are the same.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 06, 2016, 02:21:47 pm
Artillerymen tend to hang out far beyond the range of bullets, though. Self-propelled artillery, bitches!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 06, 2016, 02:24:19 pm
Yeah, but they're out of range of bullets because you have allied infantrymen keeping the enemy out of range. The all-artillery scheme Tack is proposing might work in a few RTS, but is otherwise crap.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on March 06, 2016, 02:30:31 pm
Yeah, but they're out of range of bullets because you have allied infantrymen keeping the enemy out of range. The all-artillery scheme Tack is proposing might work in a few RTS, but is otherwise crap.

You will never persuade me that the trebuchet hammer is an unviable tactic on a modern battlefield.

:P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 06, 2016, 03:08:09 pm
Actually it's in reverse - unguided shells are only useful against insurgents, which have insignificant forces and thus are unable to suppress or destroy either the launching devices or the supply lines.

Against a modern opponent, you won't be able to fire much more of unguided munitions than guided ones, before you get your unguided shell storage facilities destroyed by a precise-guided bomb or a drone-fired missile, or get your artillery wrecked by enemy's guided shells landing right on top of your artillery battalions. After that, it's just a matter of time until the rest of your forces is fixed by the enemy's heavy mechanized formations and destroyed completely by unerring deadly fire.

Like, why do you think all modern militaries invest in guided/precise/network-based stuff so hard? It's because it counters everything else. Just like stealth does. That's why Russian military is investing so hard in acquiring all of these things, you know.
You're wrong. Insurgents are very small targets mixed in among things you don't want to destroy. Guided munitions get used way more than unguided munitions in the wars against insurgents.

Not so. The enemy needs eyes on in order to employ guided munitions, and a modern force can actually prevent you from carrying out recce on him, unlike insurgents, who have inadequate AA and QRF capabilities. You forget that in this context the enemy has the same equipment as you do. I don't see how you could manage to locate the enemy's "unguided shell storage" seeing as that's his rear echelon, and he no doubt has many AA assets in that area preventing you from spotting it with air assets, and good luck getting a foot probe in there when he has UAVs equipped with FPR and IR. And if artillery is in range of his rear echelon then he has bigger problems since that means his front line has already been run over by your line units.

They are not invincible assets. Not only are there ways to stop these assets from being put into use (JDAM platforms have a much longer range than artillery which is comparatively short-ranged and cumbersome, but jets can be shot down and thus MUST be employed over space where you have air superiority) there are situations in which it is better to use 30 or 40 unguided rounds over a single expensive guided munition.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 06, 2016, 03:54:40 pm
You're wrong. Insurgents are very small targets mixed in among things you don't want to destroy. Guided munitions get used way more than unguided munitions in the wars against insurgents.
The fact "guided munitions get used way more than unguided munitions in the wars against insurgents" doesn't imply "unguided munitions are useful against non-insurgents", so you need a better argument than that to negate my proposition of "unguided munitions are useful only against insurgents".

That fact can, alternatively, very well mean that modern militaries just use more guided munitions than unguided munitions in general, against any opponent, simply because it's more effective to do so.

Not so. The enemy needs eyes on in order to employ guided munitions, and a modern force can actually prevent you from carrying out recce on him, unlike insurgents, who have inadequate AA and QRF capabilities. You forget that in this context the enemy has the same equipment as you do. I don't see how you could manage to locate the enemy's "unguided shell storage" seeing as that's his rear echelon, and he no doubt has many AA assets in that area preventing you from spotting it with air assets, and good luck getting a foot probe in there when he has UAVs equipped with FPR and IR. And if artillery is in range of his rear echelon then he has bigger problems since that means his front line has already been run over by your line units.
1) Ever heard of spy satellites? Can't really hide something as big as a shell storage facility from them - given the large traffic near it, that's required for it to actually function as distributor of unguided shells.

2) If we include stuff like "ballistic/cruise missile launchers" to what we call artillery here (which seems to me to not be incorrect, in the context of "modern militaries fight it out"), then there's literally no "back echelon" in a sense of a "place where enemy's fire cannot reach you". Combine that with satellite detection, and you can bet any large static asset (such as a storage facility for unguided shell - you really need a lot of them to be of even theoretical parity to guided ones!) is going to be as good as dead within the first few hours of conflict.

They are not invincible assets. Not only are there ways to stop these assets from being put into use (JDAM platforms have a much longer range than artillery which is comparatively short-ranged and cumbersome, but jets can be shot down and thus MUST be employed over space where you have air superiority) there are situations in which it is better to use 30 or 40 unguided rounds over a single expensive guided munition.
1) There is no good way to stop these assets from "being put into use". I should clarify, that by "these assets", I mean just stand-off weaponry in general, and as to answer "why there is no good way to stop it", it's notoriously difficult to shoot down incoming small projectiles, and every one that bypasses your defences hits, and hits hard.

Besides, to shoot down a guided projectile, you almost certainly need a guided projectile of your own, and a more capable one, as well, because it has to hit a much smaller and faster target.

2) There are almost no realistic situations where you can expect to fire off 30 or 40 times more of unguided rounds than guided munitions in modern conventional conflict between two modern militaries, since a fired projectile is instantly traced back to its source (thanks to modern counter-battery radars), and you have to relocate almost immediately afterwards or get destroyed.

I shall note that in this counter-battery task, guided munitions are also far more effective than unguided ones, since they can be made to automatically home in on repositioning artillery.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 06, 2016, 06:15:10 pm
Fortified targets exist.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 06, 2016, 07:25:56 pm
The fact "guided munitions get used way more than unguided munitions in the wars against insurgents" doesn't imply "unguided munitions are useful against non-insurgents", so you need a better argument than that to negate my proposition of "unguided munitions are useful only against insurgents".

That fact can, alternatively, very well mean that modern militaries just use more guided munitions than unguided munitions in general, against any opponent, simply because it's more effective to do so.

1) Ever heard of spy satellites? Can't really hide something as big as a shell storage facility from them - given the large traffic near it, that's required for it to actually function as distributor of unguided shells.

2) If we include stuff like "ballistic/cruise missile launchers" to what we call artillery here (which seems to me to not be incorrect, in the context of "modern militaries fight it out"), then there's literally no "back echelon" in a sense of a "place where enemy's fire cannot reach you". Combine that with satellite detection, and you can bet any large static asset (such as a storage facility for unguided shell - you really need a lot of them to be of even theoretical parity to guided ones!) is going to be as good as dead within the first few hours of conflict.

1) There is no good way to stop these assets from "being put into use". I should clarify, that by "these assets", I mean just stand-off weaponry in general, and as to answer "why there is no good way to stop it", it's notoriously difficult to shoot down incoming small projectiles, and every one that bypasses your defences hits, and hits hard.

Besides, to shoot down a guided projectile, you almost certainly need a guided projectile of your own, and a more capable one, as well, because it has to hit a much smaller and faster target.

2) There are almost no realistic situations where you can expect to fire off 30 or 40 times more of unguided rounds than guided munitions in modern conventional conflict between two modern militaries, since a fired projectile is instantly traced back to its source (thanks to modern counter-battery radars), and you have to relocate almost immediately afterwards or get destroyed.

I shall note that in this counter-battery task, guided munitions are also far more effective than unguided ones, since they can be made to automatically home in on repositioning artillery.
Yes it does. The tools for dealing with that kind of conflict are obviously there because they are ideal for the situations they're employed in, no? Unguided munitions can be used to great effect against large formations of units in open ground where accuracy isn't an issue. I already mentioned this. The cost is also a very important factor to consider alongside the actual result, something that you seem to be ignoring.

The modern military can afford to use more guided than unguided munitions today because their enemies are few in number and concentrated in small areas surrounded by people and buildings you don't want to destroy.

The simple fact is that spy satellites are too valuable to be diverted for tactical and operational intelligence gathering. They're busy with jobs bigger than locating one storage area. But now it sounds like you're talking about a home front factory rather than a forward supply dump just behind the front lines. Not to mention anti-satellite missiles are a thing. Satellites will be shot down in a war between developed nations.

Anti-missile missiles are a thing. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot) As for artillery, there are lasers today that can shoot down mortar shells but nothing that has really been battle tested. But heck maybe ten years down the line you'll need to mass your fire to break through an enemy's point defenses. That's not really relevant though since we're talking facts.

Missiles can be shot down, the planes that carry laser-guided bombs can be shot down, artillery can be defeated via a strong front line and good maneuvering. This is where infantry come into their own. They can be too numerous and too low-value to be worth shelling with guided munitions, which is where unguided weapons come in.

This field isn't shrouded in mystery. There are anti-missile systems all over the world that have proved effectiveness at shooting down ballistic missiles.

They're more accurate, but only if you have eyes on the target, but not always more effective if the alternative is firing lots of cheaper ammo with the same payload. Saving money is a big part of a winning a war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on March 06, 2016, 08:32:09 pm
Fortified targets exist.
For those, we developed the Massive Ordinance Penetrator.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 06, 2016, 08:42:23 pm
So blow up a million dollar bunker with a fifteen million dollar bomb?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 06, 2016, 08:47:02 pm
So blow up a million dollar bunker with a fifteen million dollar bomb?
If it's stopping millions of dollars worth of troops from advancing and you're sure the plane isn't going to get shot down, yes.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 06, 2016, 08:57:09 pm
And when the enemy makes 16 such bunkers and you have 15 such bombs in the world?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 06, 2016, 08:58:21 pm
And when the enemy makes 16 such bunkers and you have 15 such bombs in the world?
Destroy one bunker and bypass the rest. They are fixed positions. Cut the other bunkers off from their supplies or attack them from multiple sides if time is important. Force them to surrender.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 06, 2016, 09:30:27 pm
Cut the other bunkers off from their supplies or attack them from multiple sides if time is important.

Geee, that sure sounds like something unguided munitions would be useful for.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 07, 2016, 02:36:38 am
You have plenty of bunker-buster that are smaller than a MOP.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 07, 2016, 08:24:03 am
Yes it does. The tools for dealing with that kind of conflict are obviously there because they are ideal for the situations they're employed in, no? Unguided munitions can be used to great effect against large formations of units in open ground where accuracy isn't an issue. I already mentioned this. The cost is also a very important factor to consider alongside the actual result, something that you seem to be ignoring.
Cost doesn't seem to be a limiting factor for modern armies. If it was, they wouldn't be firing PGMs to blow up ISIS excavators every 2-3 days.

The modern military can afford to use more guided than unguided munitions today because their enemies are few in number and concentrated in small areas surrounded by people and buildings you don't want to destroy.
Modern militaries themselves are usually "few in number". An order-of-magnitude larger than what insurgents usually bring, sure, but a modern military losing 10% of its assets could lose most of its fighting capability, if you choose and hit the right targets. That is, they're more vulnerable to being reduced in combat capacity than insurgents, who can just replace their losses cheap and fast.

The simple fact is that spy satellites are too valuable to be diverted for tactical and operational intelligence gathering. They're busy with jobs bigger than locating one storage area. But now it sounds like you're talking about a home front factory rather than a forward supply dump just behind the front lines. Not to mention anti-satellite missiles are a thing. Satellites will be shot down in a war between developed nations.
No one will actually shoot down any satellites, not until the "total war" stage, which will never happen. It's just too risky to do that, too much and you may block the space for everyone due to Kessler syndrome (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome).

Anti-missile missiles are a thing. As for artillery, there are lasers today that can shoot down mortar shells but nothing that has really been battle tested. But heck maybe ten years down the line you'll need to mass your fire to break through an enemy's point defenses. That's not really relevant though since we're talking facts.
Anti-missile missiles are guided munitions by definition, so you're actually supporting my point of view here. As for "massing your fire", that's not going to become an issue - because unguided munitions are, by definition, moving on ballistic trajectory - and thus are infinitely easier to shoot down than a ground-hugging hyper-sonic cruise missile - which is a guided munition. So again, guided munitions rule, unguided munitions drool.

Missiles can be shot down, the planes that carry laser-guided bombs can be shot down, artillery can be defeated via a strong front line and good maneuvering. This is where infantry come into their own. They can be too numerous and too low-value to be worth shelling with guided munitions, which is where unguided weapons come in.
Missiles are not cost-ineffective to shoot down, because the attacker has an advantage of being able to choose where they strike, and you're not going to be able to protect everything you need to protect if your country is bigger than Estonia. With planes, F-35 are Low Observable, which makes "shoot them down" a very difficult task, especially since they can also choose where they strike and thus go around your defences.

As for infantry, I can say that, if enemy's reduced to low-value infantry, he's effectively already defeated and it doesn't matter what weapon you choose to finish them off. Unguided munitions could be useful in this case, of course, but you could do the same with tank shells and IFV's autocannons, i.e. non-artillery assets, that could, in addition to doing the task of artillery, also able to advance into enemy's territory.

(also, "strong front-line"? WW2 was more than half a century ago, modern warfare doesn't have "front-lines" in the usual sense of that word)


This field isn't shrouded in mystery. There are anti-missile systems all over the world that have proved effectiveness at shooting down ballistic missiles.
Last time I checked, their maximum "effectiveness" was "intercept of 30% of missiles". Not quite enough.

They're more accurate, but only if you have eyes on the target, but not always more effective if the alternative is firing lots of cheaper ammo with the same payload. Saving money is a big part of a winning a war.
And I say that you'll save much more money if you fire guided munitions than unguided ones, because you will be able to destroy enemy assets faster and as a result, prevent enemy from destroying your assets. Quality wins over quantity, all modern conflicts have shown that. With quality, you save more people and equipment of your own in every fire exchange, and it all adds up, big time.

Fortified targets exist.
Blowing up the entrance in a right way will make them useless for any logistical purpose. Of course, that would be quite difficult to do with unguided munitions - but with guided ones, it's much easier. And of course, there could be other weak spots, as well.

--------

you know there's some irony in Russian arguing against an American that guided weapons are better than unguided ones
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 07, 2016, 08:26:35 am
You have plenty of bunker-buster that are smaller than a MOP.
Yep. Had to assume the "bunkers" being talked about were being destroyed as efficiently as possible, since, I mean, ground-bursting nuclear weapons are also "bunker busters". The problem with these hypotheticals is that they don't take into account all of the many facets of modern war. There are a lot of moving parts to consider.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 09:07:54 am
As for infantry, I can say that, if enemy's reduced to low-value infantry, he's effectively already defeated and it doesn't matter what weapon you choose to finish them off. Unguided munitions could be useful in this case, of course, but you could do the same with tank shells and IFV's autocannons, i.e. non-artillery assets, that could, in addition to doing the task of artillery, also able to advance into enemy's territory.

Cool, so it seems to me like you and guninanrunin agree about more then you thought you agreed about.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 07, 2016, 09:23:59 am
As for infantry, I can say that, if enemy's reduced to low-value infantry, he's effectively already defeated and it doesn't matter what weapon you choose to finish them off. Unguided munitions could be useful in this case, of course, but you could do the same with tank shells and IFV's autocannons, i.e. non-artillery assets, that could, in addition to doing the task of artillery, also able to advance into enemy's territory.

Cool, so it seems to me like you and guninanrunin agree about more then you thought you agreed about.
I guess so...

I think I'll slightly revise my statement of "guided weapons are better than unguided ones", by adding in that "network-directed unguided weapons can also work well, in certain situations".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 10:08:51 am
So I am seeing more topics you agree on.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 07, 2016, 10:34:24 am
Well, isn't reaching agreement/compromise an ultimate point of having a discussion? I mean, if you aren't shitposting, that is.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 10:40:28 am
Congrats.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 07, 2016, 12:27:51 pm
Cost doesn't seem to be a limiting factor for modern armies. If it was, they wouldn't be firing PGMs to blow up ISIS excavators every 2-3 days.
If you don't have money you can't buy weapons and pay soldiers. How is money not one of the primary limiting factors for an army?

Modern militaries themselves are usually "few in number". An order-of-magnitude larger than what insurgents usually bring, sure, but a modern military losing 10% of its assets could lose most of its fighting capability, if you choose and hit the right targets. That is, they're more vulnerable to being reduced in combat capacity than insurgents, who can just replace their losses cheap and fast.
Maybe cheap relative to a modern military but for insurgents obviously equipment modern militaries take for granted, like rocket launchers and mortars, are quite valuable to them.

No one will actually shoot down any satellites, not until the "total war" stage, which will never happen. It's just too risky to do that, too much and you may block the space for everyone due to Kessler syndrome (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome).
That's very optimistic of you, but we're talking about first-world militaries fighting one another with their standing armies. Please assume that, for the most part, they're not pulling any punches (short of nuclear war). Destroying your enemy's satellites would be a very important part of winning.

Anti-missile missiles are guided munitions by definition, so you're actually supporting my point of view here. As for "massing your fire", that's not going to become an issue - because unguided munitions are, by definition, moving on ballistic trajectory - and thus are infinitely easier to shoot down than a ground-hugging hyper-sonic cruise missile - which is a guided munition. So again, guided munitions rule, unguided munitions drool.
I'm not saying guided munitions are better, I'm just explaining why unguided munitions still have a job. Guided munitions are still more predictable than fighters piloted by humans. Also I'm pretty sure most cruise missiles fly slower than fighters, but yeah I've read about those hypersonic cruise missiles. No doubt it would be easy enough to get an anti-missile missile flying at the same speed if you can already get a weapon with a 2000 pound payload flying that quick.

Missiles are not cost-ineffective to shoot down, because the attacker has an advantage of being able to choose where they strike, and you're not going to be able to protect everything you need to protect if your country is bigger than Estonia. With planes, F-35 are Low Observable, which makes "shoot them down" a very difficult task, especially since they can also choose where they strike and thus go around your defenses.
SAMs are expensive and often fixed installations, so you're right that they can be easy to bypass once located, but that's just one layer of a proper air defense. Surface AA covers important areas that have been built up like FOBs and other installations; we can employ our own AWACS and fighters to fill in the gaps by locating and shooting down enemy cruise missiles and hostile fighters.

As for infantry, I can say that, if enemy's reduced to low-value infantry, he's effectively already defeated and it doesn't matter what weapon you choose to finish them off. Unguided munitions could be useful in this case, of course, but you could do the same with tank shells and IFV's autocannons, i.e. non-artillery assets, that could, in addition to doing the task of artillery, also able to advance into enemy's territory.

(also, "strong front-line"? WW2 was more than half a century ago, modern warfare doesn't have "front-lines" in the usual sense of that word)
Again, these weapons have different capabilities, and thus different roles. Howitzers and tanks provide different kinds of support; indirect versus direct.

Last time I checked, their maximum "effectiveness" was "intercept of 30% of missiles". Not quite enough.
That figure is familiar. You must be talking about the scuds in Iraq. These are the best sources I've found on that:
http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs04lewis.pdf
http://fas.org/spp/starwars/docops/pl920908.htm

There is little hard evidence I could find saying one way or another how effective the Patriot really is, but that's just one ABM system.

And I say that you'll save much more money if you fire guided munitions than unguided ones, because you will be able to destroy enemy assets faster and as a result, prevent enemy from destroying your assets. Quality wins over quantity, all modern conflicts have shown that. With quality, you save more people and equipment of your own in every fire exchange, and it all adds up, big time.
I would argue that there needs to be a balance of quality and quantity. This is what I was arguing earlier with conscription. There is a place for highly trained special forces and there is a place for the career rifleman. That is why modern militaries make use of both.

Blowing up the entrance in a right way will make them useless for any logistical purpose. Of course, that would be quite difficult to do with unguided munitions - but with guided ones, it's much easier. And of course, there could be other weak spots, as well.
A precision bomb built to detonate inside the structure is the best way to take out an enemy inside a built-up area or in prepared positions. What I'm saying is that it's not always possible to use those weapons in some situations.

you know there's some irony in Russian arguing against an American that guided weapons are better than unguided ones
Guided weapons aren't better than unguided ones. That is not what I'm saying. The weapons have different jobs and should be used in different situations. Using one should not preclude the use of the other. That is what I'm arguing for. To me you're saying that unguided weapons are useless because precision weapons exist, but I'm saying both have pros and cons and are valuable in different contexts.



Guided Artillery - Use it to destroy relatively small, valuable targets.
Pros
- More accurate than unguided weapons

Cons
- Can be spoofed (e-warfare)
- Require timely and accurate intelligence to use properly
- Expensive [1 (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/01/excalibur-goes-to-sea-raytheon-smart-artillery-shoots-back/)]

Unguided Artillery - Use it to destroy relatively large targets where discrimination isn't necessary.
Pros
- Cheap [1 (http://www.pmulcahy.com/ammunition/howitzer_rounds.html)]

Cons
- Less accurate than guided weapons
- Require timely and accurate intelligence to use properly

((Just because I listed more cons, it doesn't mean I think they outweigh the others.))
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 07, 2016, 01:27:27 pm
Cost doesn't seem to be a limiting factor for modern armies. If it was, they wouldn't be firing PGMs to blow up ISIS excavators every 2-3 days.
If you don't have money you can't buy weapons and pay soldiers. How is money not one of the primary limiting factors for an army?
Because "don't have money" doesn't apply to a first-world military. Modern military budgets are already very low, and it's still more than enough to cover up all the costs. In any situation where the budget would be strained, if there was a serious conflict, they would just get a loan and continue spending as much as possible. So money isn't a bottleneck here. The real bottleneck is in how intensely you can apply said money to your enemy, and guided munitions win here, because they pack more money (and thus, more effectiveness) per a standard loadout (i.e. the maximum optimal amount of shells you can store near a launcher device). Same with network-related stuff - you effectively add the money of your network system to every action took with its help, and thus raise the density, as well.

Modern militaries themselves are usually "few in number". An order-of-magnitude larger than what insurgents usually bring, sure, but a modern military losing 10% of its assets could lose most of its fighting capability, if you choose and hit the right targets. That is, they're more vulnerable to being reduced in combat capacity than insurgents, who can just replace their losses cheap and fast.
Maybe cheap relative to a modern military but for insurgents obviously equipment modern militaries take for granted, like rocket launchers and mortars, are quite valuable to them.
Idk, I guess?

No one will actually shoot down any satellites, not until the "total war" stage, which will never happen. It's just too risky to do that, too much and you may block the space for everyone due to Kessler syndrome (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome).
That's very optimistic of you, but we're talking about first-world militaries fighting one another with their standing armies. Please assume that, for the most part, they're not pulling any punches (short of nuclear war). Destroying your enemy's satellites would be a very important part of winning.
Militaries serve the interests of the public, of the government, and no government is interested in potentially losing access to space for a millenia. Moreso, modern militaries will "pull" their punches, because we're not living in 20th century and modern people are no longer accepting mass murder of civilians in order to win. With satellites, the potential risks of being known as a "nation that fucked up space for everyone" would heavily outweigh any potential gains due to such actions. It would almost certainly cause an international embargo of a state that did it.

-skipping-

you know there's some irony in Russian arguing against an American that guided weapons are better than unguided ones
Guided weapons aren't better than unguided ones. That is not what I'm saying. The weapons have different jobs and should be used in different situations. Using one should not preclude the use of the other. That is what I'm arguing for. To me you're saying that unguided weapons are useless because precision weapons exist, but I'm saying both have pros and cons and are valuable in different contexts.



Guided Artillery - Use it to destroy relatively small, valuable targets.
Pros
- More accurate than unguided weapons

Cons
- Can be spoofed (e-warfare)
- Require timely and accurate intelligence to use properly
- Expensive [1 (http://breakingdefense.com/2016/01/excalibur-goes-to-sea-raytheon-smart-artillery-shoots-back/)]

Unguided Artillery - Use it to destroy relatively large targets where discrimination isn't necessary.
Pros
- Cheap [1 (http://www.pmulcahy.com/ammunition/howitzer_rounds.html)]

Cons
- Less accurate than guided weapons
- Require timely and accurate intelligence to use properly

((Just because I listed more cons, it doesn't mean I think they outweigh the others.))
Well, I did say that unguided munitions are still useful against insurgents, didn't I? And later, said that network-directed unguided weapons could also work, in certain situations. It's just that... the fact that "weapons have different jobs and should be used in different situations" does not contradict the fact that "outdated weapons have no place on modern battlefield".

All facts point out to the constantly decreasing percentage of unguided munitions being used in modern conflicts, and for past 30 years, there's been a correlation between "side that uses primarily unguided munitions in combat" and "side that loses horribly". Desert Storm, Invasion of Iraq, Insurgency in Iraq, Civil War in Syria - in every conflict, the side that has used more guided/network-directed munitions has either won, or was definitely winning until the opposite side started using even more guided/network-directed munitions.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 07, 2016, 01:44:31 pm
All facts point out to the constantly decreasing percentage of unguided munitions being used in modern conflicts, and for past 30 years, there's been a correlation between "side that uses primarily unguided munitions in combat" and "side that loses horribly". Desert Storm, Invasion of Iraq, Insurgency in Iraq, Civil War in Syria - in every conflict, the side that has used more guided/network-directed munitions has either won, or was definitely winning until the opposite side started using even more guided/network-directed munitions.
I'm saying your correlation is wrong, because in none of those fights you name was the military in question fighting a military that had technological parity with the other. The Russian military for example has e-warfare, anti-missile, and anti-fighter capability at least in the same neighborhood as the US army (again for example), which means guided weapons can actually be countered, which means that unguided weapons actually have a place in a first-world on first-world conflict.

EDIT:
Also, if people are crazy enough to nuke each other then they're crazy enough to pull a Planetes and cut off space. Kessler Syndrome is a long-term effect and people and governments are known for ignoring the long-term consequences of their actions in order to effect a short-term benefit.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Morrigi on March 07, 2016, 03:47:26 pm
Guided munitions are only issued in limited numbers. The vast majority of shells in the inventories of the world powers and fired on the battlefields they're involved in are still good old-fashioned high explosive. Besides, guided shells are primarily intended for use against vehicles.
Unguided shells are mostly useless. Guided shells and, generally, guided munitions are so much more effective at their jobs that everyone who can use them, uses them. ATGM missiles in Syria are used against infantry on a regular basis, and that's among a third-rate military. A first-rate military would use (and uses - look at how modern NATO fights) significantly more guided munitions than unguided ones, because firing unguided munitions is literally a waste of time and manpower, when you have guided munitions available.

All these "inventories" of unguided shells are mostly wasting storage space, and the only reason why they're still there is because 1) utilizing shells is really costly and dangerous, and 2) sometimes, you can modernize those into guided ones, like with JDAMs.

Unguided artillery munitions cause 70-80% of combat casualties in conventional warfare, and it's been like that since at least WW1.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 03:57:17 pm
All facts point out to the constantly decreasing percentage of unguided munitions being used in modern conflicts

Anything that was previously technologically nonviable is going to become more common.  Tablets used to be 0% of computers.  Now they are a growing share of computers.  It does not follow that non-tablet computers aren't still a viable technology.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on March 07, 2016, 05:48:12 pm
- Cheap [1 (http://www.pmulcahy.com/ammunition/howitzer_rounds.html)]
I think you quoted a tabletop RPG manual there :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 07, 2016, 05:56:34 pm
- Cheap [1 (http://www.pmulcahy.com/ammunition/howitzer_rounds.html)]
I think you quoted a tabletop RPG manual there :P
I was hoping everyone would be too lazy to trim the address. If people can sell 105s for 400 bucks on the internet surely the prices can't be far off. I hope I can find a 2016 report on how much they actually cost though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 07, 2016, 08:43:41 pm
Quote
  Fixed Fortifications are a monument to the stupidity of man. [quote/]
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 08:46:34 pm
I thought that was a lament about the existence of war and not a strategic assessment?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on March 07, 2016, 10:47:28 pm
I thought that was a lament about the existence of war and not a strategic assessment?
Understandable, but it's important to remember that this was said by General George Patton; the only lament he had about war was that it came to an end. That said, it's also worth remembering that Patton's primary ethos to war was to go for the grapple whenever possible, and like Guderian and Rommel, he never met a logistics tail he couldn't outrun.  It's understandable that he would loathe any sort of static defense on a matter of pure principle, rather than practicality. 

EDIT:
I suppose I should touch on the main point during the World War 2 era, though, rather than snarking at the expense of a long-dead general.  By contrast to Patton's claims, hedgehog defense tactics proved highly useful initially in the Eastern Front (albeit with its own caveats here) and by the British in Egypt and Burma, and if the Soviet forward fortifications had all be completed to the level of the Brest Fortress in 1941 (or the Stalin Line maintained and not denuded in preparation for construction of the Molotov Line), these similarly would have bound up large numbers of German forces in the initial advance of Barbarossa just as Brest had.  The major flaws in the Maginot Line, the classic illustration of this adage, was varied: a gap between the French and Belgian lines, the Belgian neutrality declaration between 1936-1938 that disrupted joint military preparations between it and France, the failure to establish a proper aerial defense system in the Belgian lines, and the over-commital of the reserves too early, based on stolen military plans that had since been superseded and bad assumptions in the French High Command.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 10:52:12 pm
Understandable, but it's important to remember that this was said by General George Patton; the only lament he had about war was that it came to an end.

(http://i.imgur.com/himZD0M.gif)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 07, 2016, 11:25:57 pm
and the over-commital of the reserves too early, based on stolen military plans that had since been superseded and bad assumptions in the French High Command.

Even assuming the stolen plans were accurate, it was a bizarre over commitment.  The plan was predicated on the notion that the French could outlast the Germans.  Committing all your reserves to a decisive battle right at the very start undermines 20 years of French planning.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on March 08, 2016, 12:16:56 am
and the over-commital of the reserves too early, based on stolen military plans that had since been superseded and bad assumptions in the French High Command.

Even assuming the stolen plans were accurate, it was a bizarre over commitment.  The plan was predicated on the notion that the French could outlast the Germans.  Committing all your reserves to a decisive battle right at the very start undermines 20 years of French planning.
I wonder if it was so bizarre, actually; the notion that the French could outlast the Germans critically required the German initial blow to be blunted somehow, and the French by preference much rathered this be in Belgium rather than on the Marne.  The plan was thus predicated on ensuring that the war would be fought in Belgium rather than France; that was why the Maginot went up.  Geographically and militarily, the Dyle Line and the Namur fortifications was, as far as I'm aware, the last major defensive position available, especially after the Liege forts fell, and the rapid pace of the German advance essentially called for an equally rapid mobilization of the BEF and French Seventh Army to beat them to that position.  Political exigencies, too, became key; with the Dutch in the war this time around, the Dyle Plan allowed all three armies to link up rather than the Dutch being defeated in detail, the 1936 Belgian neutrality measures had blocked a more measured mobilization and forward deployment of French forces in advance (necessitating a rapid response), and the fortification of the Franco-Belgian border fell foul of the budget cuts in the Great Depression as well as the practical declaration that this would have been perceived as an "abandonment" of the Belgians, which...well, it was suspected, and eventually proven in 1936 and again in 1940 that King Leopold III lacked the backbone his father had shown.  It was a gamble, but it was seen as a relatively sound one, and it's primarily in retrospect that it proved to be the direst of errors in the Battle of France; if the French had abandoned the Belgians to their fate and the Seventh had been available for action in the early days of the Ardennes Offensive, it may have been able to rip the world's largest traffic jam to shreds before the Germans ever got their heads out of their collective bottoms.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 08, 2016, 12:58:17 am
There is a middle ground between abandon the Belgians and committing everything.  The French knew from the first war that the Germans would try and commit a overwhelming force to a point.  They French wanted to be able to counter that with an overwhelming defensive force like at Verdun.  That's what the 7th army was for, it was fast enough and strong enough to reinforce any position.  But instead of keeping the 7th army in reserve, it was the very first force Gamelin committed.

Germany wasn't prepared for WWII like it was for WWI.  If the French had successfully countered the initial attack the Germans lacked the ammunition and oil supplies for another.  And Gamelin had a pretty good idea that Germany wasn't poorly prepared, it was public knowledge how Germany was resorting to metal and oil rationing long before the war even began and how ill equipped they were to pay for imports.  France had made sure their industry was ready for a long war, they made sure they had the fortifications to keep the area to defend small and they made sure that they could keep producing steadily while increasing imports as German military production collapsed.  Hitler was scraping the bottom of the barrel before the war even began.  If Germany had failed in the first attack the second attack would have been like the battle of kursk, going up against a defender who knows you are on your last legs and has had months to prepare huge defense in depth.  After that?  Steel and oil and food run out in Germany.

All Gamelin had to do was keep from losing against that first attack.  Anything less then total annihilation would have been a victory.  He could have lost an entire army and lost Belgium and French victory would still have been virtually guaranteed.  All he needed to do was make sure that the 7th army reinforced whatever turned out to be the main axis of the German attack.  By rushing the 7th army to the front he made that virtually impossible.  Even if the Germans did attack in Belgium they might achieve a breakthrough in Belgium.  The French wouldn't have the 7th army to reinforce that breakthrough.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 08, 2016, 07:37:24 am
Quote
Rather, not every soldier has the same chance to end up under a barrage. Artillery is pretty darn effective, when it shoots the right location. In Ukraine it continues to create 80%+ of casualties, as since 1914 at least or so. You just don't want to end be at the receiving end.
There are huge difference in causalities when same artillery strikes properly prepared positions made by professional soldiers and when it strikes a crowd of armed civilians in open field.

This is true. However, an attacking force(the enemy) does not usually spend hours preparing defensive positions. They will be attacking, moving or preparing to attack, or in a traffic jam. They are vulnerable to fire every time they aren't so near to friendly forces that they cannot be fired upon. That means, closer than 150 meters, or basically mixed in, at which point the situation may be so bad that the forward observer may call fire on friendly or even his own position. Its been done before.

Artillery's vulnerability to being located by counter-artillery radars and other positioning means, and being subjected to counter-artillery fire or other weapons depends a bit on the systems themselves and how they're used. We usually have mortars motorized and integrated within the fighting units themselves or very mobile(mechanized) shooting both high and low angles, while the gun and rocket artillery use low angles only and relocate from firing positions immediately after a fire mission while another battery from the same brigade or platoon moves to its own prepared firing position(talking about 500 m to 1 km distances here), so that even if the counter-battery fire is instant, the firing unit will no longer be there when the counter-artillery fire splashes down. The sheer number of artillery available and its drilled tactics makes this possible. Besides ranging shots(when necessary) a forward observer has direct communications to the firing units as often as possible and usually calls a minimum of one shot per gun from a battery or a so called "kerta"(a "once" or single or singular); that is, 16 or 18 shots depending on the unit and caliber.

That is definitely not optimized to hitting small groups let alone individual guerrillas.  :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 08, 2016, 07:59:27 am
That is definitely not optimized to hitting small groups let alone individual guerrillas.  :)
Indeed. Against those targets precision weapons are more efficient.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 08, 2016, 08:07:44 am
What will you do when the Lappland Liberation Front start a guerilla war led by small units on reindeerback then?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 08, 2016, 08:11:51 am
What will you do when the Lappland Liberation Front start a guerrilla war led by small units on reindeerback then?
Surrender?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 08, 2016, 08:45:18 am
What will you do when the Lappland Liberation Front start a guerilla war led by small units on reindeerback then?

My bet is on neo-fascist anti-Russian movements with a strength of about 3 men in the Russian Republic of Karelia that need to be crushed with 15-ish motor rifle brigades some 600 km to the West. That, or a Russian aircraft or two are "shot down". Mind you, the hybrid warfare against us has been on for years already. Just not in anywhere near the same scale as in Ukraine, and besides Armenia, we're still Russia's best neighbors. In a way.

I don't think we have problems similar to Ukraine. Corruption, money, rusting gear, lacking organization and drilling aren't issues, and nobody would consider the conflict a civil war. Manufacturing an internal conflict would be very difficult. Defense budget has been cut several times the past years but we will be seeing an increase in both it and  readiness in general soon. The whole military is geared and drilled for rapid response, fighting in depth and counterattack, and escalation bit by bit just wont work after April this year when it comes possible for the Chief of Staff to mobilize 25,000 to man the armored units(which would rise the peacetime strength to about 40,000) without the need ask the parliament or even the prime minister. The so called "Yellow A2" may grab a village or two with insurgents speaking incomprehensible could-be-Finnish, but then what? They'd face a large conventional army, an air force and a cruise missile threat to deep behind the border should they let the defender have the couple of days to mobilize. And that defender would have the means to stop all naval and air traffic but submarines in the Gulf of Finland.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on March 08, 2016, 09:33:07 am
What will you do when the Lappland Liberation Front start a guerrilla war led by small units on reindeerback then?
Surrender?

That is not how you spell supper.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Ukrainian Ranger on March 08, 2016, 09:52:55 am
This is true. However, an attacking force(the enemy) does not usually spend hours preparing defensive positions.
Modern war is a war of mobility. Especially on offensive. You move and hide to avoid artillery  (unless you are speaking about that weird Ukrainian-Russian war that looks like unholy mix of WW1,WW2,cold war era conflicts and spec ops playing counter-strike in the real life)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 08, 2016, 10:25:09 am
This is true. However, an attacking force(the enemy) does not usually spend hours preparing defensive positions.
Modern war is a war of mobility. Especially on offensive. You move and hide to avoid artillery  (unless you are speaking about that weird Ukrainian-Russian war that looks like unholy mix of WW1,WW2,cold war era conflicts and spec ops playing counter-strike in the real life)

That movement also stops when it meets defenders or another obstacle.

edit: fortunately the terrain we have is a lot more trickier to an attacker than Central Europe or especially Ukrainian plains. There are many more natural obstacles that will channel and restrict movement.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 08, 2016, 04:47:59 pm
This is true. However, an attacking force(the enemy) does not usually spend hours preparing defensive positions.
Modern war is a war of mobility. Especially on offensive. You move and hide to avoid artillery  (unless you are speaking about that weird Ukrainian-Russian war that looks like unholy mix of WW1,WW2,cold war era conflicts and spec ops playing counter-strike in the real life)
That movement also stops when it meets defenders or another obstacle.
No it doesn't. You don't just stop maneuvering when you locate the enemy. You try to outmaneuver him. Flank him or surround him or cut him off.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 08, 2016, 05:36:25 pm
This is true. However, an attacking force(the enemy) does not usually spend hours preparing defensive positions.
Modern war is a war of mobility. Especially on offensive. You move and hide to avoid artillery  (unless you are speaking about that weird Ukrainian-Russian war that looks like unholy mix of WW1,WW2,cold war era conflicts and spec ops playing counter-strike in the real life)
That movement also stops when it meets defenders or another obstacle.
No it doesn't. You don't just stop maneuvering when you locate the enemy. You try to outmaneuver him. Flank him or surround him or cut him off.
Alternatively, you do a full frontal assault through enemy's positions by rapidly concentrating forces in several locations of enemy's front line (or whatever its analogy in the modern warfare) and then full throttle your mechanized formations to overrun their supply lines and wreck chaos and destruction at places where your opponent doesn't expect them to be, while fixing the "front-line" survivors with motorized groups and then encircling and artillerating them to death. That's how the Soviet manuals tell to do it.

Modern Russian doctrine might be somewhat different, but it's still pretty similar, given by recent Russian ground military operations. Surprise and shock are the key to victory.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 08, 2016, 05:43:44 pm
No it doesn't. You don't just stop maneuvering when you locate the enemy. You try to outmaneuver him. Flank him or surround him or cut him off.
Notably in the conflicts within Iraq and Syria, due to all the mobile major firepower having been blown up, when two groups met at a town they'd just stop and wait until someone brought in a truck bomb/air strike on the fortified town. Helps to have artillery round about then, unless that artillery just becomes an airstrike magnet
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on March 08, 2016, 07:14:02 pm
There's a gulf of a difference between the current fighting in the Middle East and a war between modern militaries.


(pun intended)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on March 09, 2016, 01:54:43 am
No it doesn't. You don't just stop maneuvering when you locate the enemy. You try to outmaneuver him. Flank him or surround him or cut him off.
Notably in the conflicts within Iraq and Syria, due to all the mobile major firepower having been blown up, when two groups met at a town they'd just stop and wait until someone brought in a truck bomb/air strike on the fortified town. Helps to have artillery round about then, unless that artillery just becomes an airstrike magnet

I wonder if any modern conflict has ever had a deliberately obvious artillery battery defended by hidden fighters or ground AA for the express purpose of baiting enemy aircraft into the area to get shot down.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 09, 2016, 02:52:54 am
I love how everyone is going "no, modern warfare doesn't look like this, it look like this" while referencing totally theoretical wars between major militaries as if they were real.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on March 09, 2016, 03:09:21 am
I love how everyone is going "no, modern warfare doesn't look like this, it look like this" while referencing totally theoretical wars between major militaries as if they were real.
The last time two superpowers fought was in World War 2, so yeah. It remains a hypothetical discussion. Isn't that what this thread is for?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on March 09, 2016, 03:26:46 am
I love how everyone is going "no, modern warfare doesn't look like this, it look like this" while referencing totally theoretical wars between major militaries as if they were real.
I referenced the totally factual wars between major and minor militaries. Totally different!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on March 09, 2016, 03:34:41 am
Sure, thinking of hyptohetical war is what this thread is for, but I love seeing people making grand statement "Moder war is mobility" as if it was established truth while the fact is, we don't really know what a war between modern armies would look like. (Especially since it probablt depend a lot on how much each side is pulling his punches).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on March 09, 2016, 03:47:33 am
This is true. However, an attacking force(the enemy) does not usually spend hours preparing defensive positions.
Modern war is a war of mobility. Especially on offensive. You move and hide to avoid artillery  (unless you are speaking about that weird Ukrainian-Russian war that looks like unholy mix of WW1,WW2,cold war era conflicts and spec ops playing counter-strike in the real life)
That movement also stops when it meets defenders or another obstacle.
No it doesn't. You don't just stop maneuvering when you locate the enemy. You try to outmaneuver him. Flank him or surround him or cut him off.

If it only worked all the time. Also, cutting off a unit may not have immediate effect on its abilities.

A possible scenario: a mechanized platoon advances on road and suddenly meets defenders. Terrain: woodland, average visibility 200 meters, more near the road. There arent many defenders, its just a delay action, but they have mines, mortars and AT weapons. The lead recon squad of 2 BTRs is let through before its destroyed and the first elements of the main body come under fire. The width of the attacking formation in a space limited by water and difficult terrain is 900 meters. The formation stops, engages, and notices it cant just push through easily. Another vehicle is lost. This has taken 3 minutes. It takes a minute to pass the information up the command chain. Another minute or two for the HQ to orient and make a decision, and another minute for the order to disengage, regroup and flank using the difficult terrain together with a formation behind, while artillery and/or air units are called to fix the enemy, to be received. Just disengaging may take more than a minute.

From somewhere around the 2 min mark they can expect an artillery barrage on their heads from a unit that was already prepared for fire missions to this location, 2 to 3 minutes longer if the artillery needs to move from cover to firing stations first. Likewise, this attacking unit may have its own support in similar readiness, but likely further away. 3 times 18 guns firing twice is brutal at the receiving end even if the hit area covers the targeted enemy unit only partially. 155 mm DM662 airburst shell has 49 submunitions, each with lethal anti-personnel shrapnel range of 10 meters and over 100 mm of steel penetration(on direct hit). HE shells are as a rule rather than exception timed to detonate in the air as well, because the best cones for shrapnel spread are to the sides and below, slightly towards the direction the shell came from.

There are plenty of studies on available on artillery. Using the formula available here, page 9, for semi-hard targets, (https://www.doria.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/85100/Yli-Pyky_HJ.pdf?sequence=1) just the first shots in the situation described above, target area being 900 x 900 meters, would result in statistical probability of each man and armored vehicle(but not MBTs) in the target area to die or become incapacitated at 36% chance. Airburst rocks. P = 1 - e^(-(314*49*18*3)/(900x900))

Modern warfare is indeed about mobility, but also about firepower, and artillery is still very good at delivering the latter. A "defender" is often also able to attack(in qualitatively symmetric warfare), and units no longer form a front but rather mobile fighting "pockets".

EDIT: My math sucks. Its 64%. Assuming just half the shots hit the area, lethality is still 40%. Swapping that airburst dual purpose cluster to HE(wounding radius 25 m) and its 12%, and more in wooded terrain as shells splashing against trees actually increases their effect. Let the HE shells explode in ground contact only and it drops to mere 2% or even less if the fuse has a delay.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 04:06:34 pm
Spoiler: ITT: Fuck pikemen. (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 25, 2016, 04:20:39 pm
Shoots Kot with his arquebus.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on June 25, 2016, 04:26:31 pm
The massed pike was a deterrent to a cavalry charge - not a weapon to actively negate it. Sure, a horseman could have a lance long enough to stab at a pikeman before retaliatory stab, but would still be on a galloping horse hurtling into a wall of many more stabby things, rendering the charge futile.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 25, 2016, 04:56:35 pm
Indeed. Actual cavalry would never ride into a block of infantry that was holding their ground no matter how they were armed, unless you're playing Total War, for a few reasons.

1. Only a very disciplined horse could be convinced to ride into a large mass of people.
2. The sheer amount of casualties you would incur would not be worth it. Ramming your horse into a few ranks of people holding weapons is a good way to separate a you from your horse and/or get both of you killed.

You might break the enemy's formation by doing something so utterly insane, it would surely cause much chaos, but you've also given up all of the advantages that come with being cavalry by bogging yourself down in an enemy formation.

Real cavalry who are engaging in a charge would bear down on enemy infantry, hoping that they would get scared and run away, and only if they broke ranks and fled would the cavalry continue charging and start cutting men down. If the enemy held their ground, which was a common enough outcome with professional infantry, the cavalry would instead wheel away and either try again, or wait for other forces to generate a better opportunity.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 06:03:34 pm
Shoots Kot with his arquebus.
Arquebus?
It's fucking Winged Hussars, their armour is known to have survived musket shots easily (IIRC, it was actually tested against pistol shots against close range and it held up, and I remember seeing some armours (especially horse armour) in museums which had been dented by bullets) and there are at least three reports of Hussars surviving direct cannonball hits. During Siege of Smoleńsk one nobleman by the name of Jan Wejher survived a direct hit from Russian cannon and it didin't penetrate his cuirass, which he later donated to Carmelite Monastery in Loretto. Armour of one of men of voivode Aleksander Gosiewski deflected a cannon ball to his side which resulted in severe damage to his arm, but he survived. A hussar named Prusinowski under hetman Jerzy Lubomirski survived a hit which dented his armour so far that one of three eyewitnesses said it was so big he could put his hand in it... and the guy survived.
The massed pike was a deterrent to a cavalry charge - not a weapon to actively negate it. Sure, a horseman could have a lance long enough to stab at a pikeman before retaliatory stab, but would still be on a galloping horse hurtling into a wall of many more stabby things, rendering the charge futile.
Indeed. Actual cavalry would never ride into a block of infantry that was holding their ground no matter how they were armed, unless you're playing Total War, for a few reasons.

1. Only a very disciplined horse could be convinced to ride into a large mass of people.
2. The sheer amount of casualties you would incur would not be worth it. Ramming your horse into a few ranks of people holding weapons is a good way to separate a you from your horse and/or get both of you killed.

You might break the enemy's formation by doing something so utterly insane, it would surely cause much chaos, but you've also given up all of the advantages that come with being cavalry by bogging yourself down in an enemy formation.

Real cavalry who are engaging in a charge would bear down on enemy infantry, hoping that they would get scared and run away, and only if they broke ranks and fled would the cavalry continue charging and start cutting men down. If the enemy held their ground, which was a common enough outcome with professional infantry, the cavalry would instead wheel away and either try again, or wait for other forces to generate a better opportunity.
That is all very true, at least for Western armies of the time. It was and apparently is widely agreed that cavalry couldn't fall on a pike formation, but you all seem to be forgetting that we're talking Winged Hussars here. They literally did what you say they didin't, and they did it with very good results. During Battle of Kircholm, Poles had about 2,600 Winged Hussars against nearly 11,000 Swedish soldiers. Polish Hussars first utterly crushed Swedish cavalry that they tried to stop charges with and then perfomed a charge on wall of Swedish pike and shot.
Poles lost 200 men that day, Swedes lost nearly 8,000 IIRC. And most amazingly, only 13 hussars died, most Polish losses were supporting infantry getting hit by Swedish cannons.
I have read some historical accounts of how they actually fought. Hussar charges started dispersed and by the end they came so close that "their stirrup touched". All their horses and men were specifically trained to not give a single shit about charging into enemy formations. Pikes may have been an nearly unmovable object on battlefield, but Hussars were unstoppable force. Each Hussar is 1,5 ton mass of man and horse going at 70 km/h behind a 6 meter long lance and steel plates, and there were hundreds if not thousands of them. Good luck trying to stop that with a sharpened stick.
Say what you want about Poland and how we are butt monkey of Europe, but those guys haven't lost a battle for 125 years straight. They have won despite odds that sometimes stacked hundred to one (Battle of Hodów, 40,000 against 400 Hussars, and Hussars were on defense).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on June 25, 2016, 06:29:09 pm
You could shoot the horse instead...  ;)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 06:42:20 pm
Except the horse is also armoured, and seriously if you think you have a choice where to hit with arquebus or musket then you're proably standing way too close and are already dead.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on June 25, 2016, 07:08:19 pm
I don't believe it was very common to armor the horses too after 16th century or so... By mid 18th century or so cavalry wore no armor because it just wasn't very useful. Expensive and heavy without providing enough protection.

Muskets were/are actually pretty powerful, the typical ball can still penetrate like 40 cm of flesh 50 meters out, even if the fire isn't accurate at all, so a horses vitals are vulnerable from the front. One can find some nice videos on shooting those old blackpowder guns. The kinetic energy of a bullet can be even higher than one from a typical modern day assault rifle. How well that transforms into damage and wound channels within the target differs, musket shot after all is a big, fairly slow ball of lead.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 07:34:28 pm
Well... yes. Hussar horses actually weren't armoured except for first line and even in that case it was just a horse breastplate at best, but even then apparently muskets didin't prove to be really that dangerous. There are numerous cases of Hussars charging against lines of guns and it just didin't do shit, though it might be mostly because the maximum range of moderately accurate musket could be around... 200 meters tops? I remember that infantry of the time were actually told to wait with shoot until under 100 meters... which Hussars could cover that in what, 10 seconds? Early guns were also prone to misfires and you have to think about the psychological effect of cavalry actually having balls to charge you.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 25, 2016, 07:38:46 pm
All praise the gorillion folded winged hussars.  ::)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 25, 2016, 07:41:16 pm
Three people survived getting hit by a cannonball. Amazing. Do we have the numbers on how many people fucking died when hit by a cannonball?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 07:44:53 pm
Proably not much. Hussar casualties were always pretty low, there were proably more people who survived. I only mention those that we actually have written sources about.
All praise the gorillion folded winged hussars.  ::)
If they only had katanas, Poland would have conquered whole world ::)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 25, 2016, 08:03:14 pm
Of course! If everyone just wore armor they'd be completely safe from cannon fire! This explains why everyone wore armor and nobody used cannons in the American Revolution.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Playergamer on June 25, 2016, 08:11:31 pm
Very very few hussars died to cannon fire. Not due to armor, but because actually firing on them wasn't easy. They weren't deployed onto the battlefield until the moment a charge was needed, and, when they were preparing to charge, they were spread out enough that cannon fire could only kill a few of them. Sure, hussars were killed by cannons, but never enough to turn back a chsrge.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 25, 2016, 08:13:07 pm
All praise the gorillion folded winged hussars.  ::)

Well dont you wonder why medieval Japan never bothered to try to conquer Poland?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 25, 2016, 08:31:53 pm
Very very few hussars died to cannon fire. Not due to armor, but because actually firing on them wasn't easy. They weren't deployed onto the battlefield until the moment a charge was needed, and, when they were preparing to charge, they were spread out enough that cannon fire could only kill a few of them. Sure, hussars were killed by cannons, but never enough to turn back a charge.
This I can agree with. It's the absurd notion that Hussars could not be killed even by cannons that I won't accept.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 08:48:56 pm
I never said they couldn't, by the Emperor, even I am not that dense, I just said that there were historical cases of Hussar armour surviving cannon shots which are usually quite bigger and pack more punch than regular musket rounds. Those were rare cases (and treated as miracles, no less, I mentioned that one of guys sent his armour to some monastery as an artifact of sorts) and even if their armour protected them against cannonballs on regular basis, you still have to take the stopping power into account, getting hit by one is going to take you out of your saddle for sure.
My point was that armour fares much better against early blackpowder guns than it's commonly believed, and that the armour was in some cases so good that it actually could  save your life (not your ability to fight in that battle) from a fucking cannon.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 25, 2016, 08:55:59 pm
My point was that armour fares much better against early blackpowder guns than it's commonly believed, and that the armour was in some cases so good that it actually could  save your life (not your ability to fight in that battle) from a fucking cannon.

...in a marginal case.  A pocket bible could save your life from a 155 mm shell in a marginal case (that one bit of shrapnel headed for your heart).  Doesn't mean pocket bibles are protection from 155 mm shells.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MarcAFK on June 25, 2016, 08:58:52 pm
What would happen if Brussels invaded londonstan to drag it back into the union by the scruff of its neck like the naughty ragamuffin that it is? Armchair generaling begin nao!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 25, 2016, 09:03:12 pm
Greeted as liberators!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 09:03:50 pm
Your pocket bible wouldn't save you from direct hit from 155mm shell.
Your Hussar armour could save you from a direct hit from a cannon.

The fact it happened rarely doesn't mean it's complete protection but it's some protection and sometimes works wonders.

EDIT: And actually, if you made an armour covering your whole body out of pocket bibles, you would actually have some protection from 155mm shell shrapnel (which is why your argument is kinda wrong, it would only be the same thing if I claimed that the fact that Hussar armour sometimes stopped cannonballs also meant it made the user protected from being hit at the same speed by a whole cannon or something), considering the bible would be reasonably thick.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 25, 2016, 09:07:30 pm
By direct hit you mean not a glancing blow?  You mean a projectile travelling at speed?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 09:21:12 pm
Yes. One of these (the first one, with the guy sending the armour to monastery afterwards) is specifically reported to be a direct hit to the chestplate without the ball bouncing on it's way or anything. The Hussar in question was not on the horse at the time, but that's not exactly relevant. The gun was said to be a Culverin, though what it actually was remains questionable to me, because apparently in western terminology this is what Culverin looks like (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/HandCulverinWithSmallCannonsEurope15thCentury.jpg), and this is what Culverin by Polish terms is like. (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/05/Kolubryny.jpg) My idea on how personal armour could save someone from ~100-150mm cannonball is as good as yours, though.
The second case was a glancing blow in which case his chest wasn't hurt but his arm got torn to pieces.
In the third case it was also direct hit, though it's not stated if the cannonball hit the ground before but one of wintesses later reported that he could put his whole hand in the dent, which makes me question how the recieving guy survived (I guess loads of padding).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 25, 2016, 09:23:43 pm
Was the first guy lifted off his feet and flown through the air by the impact?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 09:29:14 pm
No, he obviously didin't even flinch and the ball just anti-climatically bounced off him and he went like "that's all what you've got?", and then he used his Hussar wings to fly over to the cannon crew and beat them to death with their own cannon. All this while having bored-slightly irritated expression.
It doesn't say but common sense suggests that he was thrown to the ground pretty hard.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 25, 2016, 09:34:41 pm
I ask the question because unlike people living back then, we have modern physics at our disposal.  We know that the conservation of momentum exists and that an direct impact with a ball travelling at 400 m/s would result in the target moving at a fairly significant pace.

However people at the time would not be well versed in physics.  If they were embellishing the story these are the sorts of details that they would fail to get right.

So... do the accounts mention the guy getting launched through the air at a fairly high speed?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 09:54:15 pm
So you're questioning the honorable Polish noblemen now? HOW DARE YOU!?
The source (the one I base my knowledge of is Polish history book (that was actually the only case I knew about, but people have been throwing those three around on various history related forums and Wikipedia also confirms but of course without fucking sources so fuck Wikipedia, per usual) which cites some Polish nobleman memories which are more in line of "back when we were besieging Smoleńsk, this dude Jan Wejher got hit straight in the chest by a Russian culverin fired from rampart and miraculously survived and then he even donated the armour to Loreto to thank God for his life" and I belive the author went as far as to check if the armour actually arrived and apparently it did but there's not much more about it) doesn't mention him flying through the air but it also doens't even mention range and a lot of other things... so I guess you can have it your way.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 25, 2016, 10:16:07 pm
My point was that armour fares much better against early blackpowder guns than it's commonly believed, and that the armour was in some cases so good that it actually could  save your life (not your ability to fight in that battle) from a fucking cannon.
I have no illusions that it's possible to withstand being shot by a blackpowder weapon if you're wearing armor. In the 16th and 17th century it was common to still wear plate armor. There's a reason that people wore plate armor in the pike and shot era, but there's also a reason that the Winged Hussars unit as well as their cavalry tactics became obsolete on the battlefield in the 18th century.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 25, 2016, 11:56:53 pm
Well, last time Winged Hussars were used in actual battle was 1702 during Battle of Kliszów. during which they actually have beaten Swedish cavalry but were later recalled off from the field as a manner of personal revenge of Polish Hetman against King. That is what killed Polish Winged Hussars, the fact that they were Polish, not that they were Winged Hussars. Poland was becoming ridiculously weak state due to internal fuckups and outside enemies taking advantage of it. Winged Hussars were like feudal knights, they had to be called to arms, and it was even worse because (I am largely simplifying but the practical outcome is the same) all of them had to agree to it before they even had war. If Poland could strategically support usage of Winged Hussars, I belive they could have won tactical victories (and with a good success) in 18th century as well and their final dissolution would come only with advent of rifles...
Though, to be honest, they would just take off their plate armour (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uhlan) and continue charging at enemy lines because death wish is very Polish thing to have... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Somosierra)
And once we would get tanks we would totally use them in the same way, charging forward at full speed, crushing the enemy forces, jumping over trenches, knocking over Brandenburg Gate and driving closer to hit them with our swords... I may have been playing too much Hearts of Iron IV recently.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on June 26, 2016, 06:17:50 am
That battle is the origin of the drunk pole meme in French. The legend is that most of the army had been drinking which was why their ass were being kicked until the pole horses saved the day. The following day Napoleon is said to have berated his troops "Be drunk if you want, but be drink like poles!"
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on June 26, 2016, 07:00:13 am
I'm not an expert on this stuff, but could plate armor hit with a canon cause spalling?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 26, 2016, 08:28:24 am
I guess, but plate armour isin't just a thick plate of armour in front of bare chest. There is a lot of padding, leather and other stuff inbetween that would proably stop most fragments. IMO the biggest problems either come from penetrations, dents (having your armour inside your chest isin't very helpful either) and the sheer force of impact which is proably enough to do damage even without penetration.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on June 26, 2016, 11:04:52 am
True, probably not helpful if your breastplate compresses your chest cavity.
Your ribs could possibly cause some pretty terrific shrapnel as well...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on June 26, 2016, 02:49:35 pm
So Armchair General thread, who would win: Star Wars, or Star Trek?

Personally I think Star Wars has the advantage on the ground, cuz Jedi, but Trek has the advantage in space for...various reasons.
Thoughts?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 02:58:35 pm
Jedi aren't that great, Star Trek also has psychics and phasers go way faster then blasters.  Star Trek has engineers who are far more adaptable then Star Wars.  Star Wars would have a major government spend a decade developing a superweapon.  Two star trek engineers would defeat it in three hours using a modulated shield harmonic.

To be fair, only the federation has "those famed Starfleet engineers who can turn rocks into replicators."
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on June 26, 2016, 03:04:36 pm
Star wars has a fleet that far outstrips those available to star trek in sheer size alone. The imperial military could pretty much just overrun the federation. An economy the size of thousands, if not millions, of worlds is going to be able to provide a far larger military than what the federation could potentially muster.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on June 26, 2016, 03:12:25 pm
Star wars has a fleet that far outstrips those available to star trek in sheer size alone. The imperial military could pretty much just overrun the federation. An economy the size of thousands, if not millions, of worlds is going to be able to provide a far larger military than what the federation could potentially muster.
Good point. Though do Star Wars ships have shields? I think I've seen shields on the capital ships but I don't think I've seen anything like the shielded shuttlecraft Trek has.
If Trek has better defensive systems it might not be all that easy to overrun them with numbers. Might look like a inverse Wolf-359 where one Trek ship shrugs off everything the Empire or Republic throws at them. Not to mention Trek has things like Transporters. The "transport photon torpedo to command deck of enemy ship" trick would be used a lot more often and effectively against someone with no defense against it.

Also what are Star Wars weapons like? They seem to just be nondistinct lasors once they get put on ships. I know they tend to be turreted, while Trek phasors tend to work on a 250-ish degree array on the saucer.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 03:16:52 pm
The Federation alone has a population of 10 trillion citizens.  The Klingon and Romulans have similar sized empires and the Cardassians have an empire that is at least in the same ballpark as these three.

I think that the per capita productivity of the Federation is just one a completely different scale from the Galactic Empire.  When the Borg first showed up the Federation multiplied the size of star fleet several times over.  This didn't even send a ripple through their economy.  They were still doing almost all of their construction in the sol solar system alone.  Then Star Fleet got even bigger when the dominion invaded and they still weren't any signs of economic strain.  The Federation essentially doesn't care about the cost of starships, all they are worried about is being able to train enough quality crews to man those ships.  The limiting factor for the federation seems to be the raw quantity of energy that they are capable of harnassing.  Their interest in rare elements could be limited to the extent that mining some substances displaces a large amount of energy expenditure when done on the industrial scale.  The number of ships in Star Fleet probably compares to the number of Star Destroyers and Star Fleet isn't really even trying...

The empire has a lot of manpower but that manpower is basically useless.  They can't even teleport it.  Heck, a Federation science ship like Voyager could probably board and capture a Star Destroyer with just their security team.  Star Destroyers dont have structural integrity fields or rotating shield frequencies so the federation could just teleport explosives and a security team directly onto their bridge.  The Galactic empire is just downright primitive compared to Star Fleet.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 26, 2016, 03:30:08 pm
Star Wars vs Star Trek...
Well, versus regular Star Trek, proably Star Wars would win. Versus Star Trek Mirror Universe, however... (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfbsZRbwbJ4)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on June 26, 2016, 03:31:20 pm
The problem with trek is that there's no real... standards? When it comes to measuring defenses, whereas Star wars' defences are are fairly standardised in regards to that. Star wars also does have shielded shuttlecraft and the like.

Now, the transporter torpedo trick I'd say would be unviable due to the difficulties in actually acquiring a target in a timely and accurate fashion, given that the SW ships will be moving throughout combat, and that won't necessarily work against all the small craft like fighters that can be sent. Heck, something like the A-wing or TIE interceptor could possibly be the most difficult thing for a ST ship to deal with purely because they don't have the weapons to effectively counter them.

As for SW weapons, they tend to be turreted weapons, and there's a pretty diverse array depending on power output and size.

@Maniac: The federation is TINY compared to the empire/republic. Coruscant alone has a population of a single trillion, and with thousands of planets under it's aegis which likely have populations in the billions. Sure, it might be more difficult for them to move all that manpower around, but I'm certain that transporters have range limits, necessitating being close (roughly geosynch orbit range for a planet) to the area where you want to transport things to and from.

Star wars shields don't operate on frequencies however, actually being a 'barrier' which effectively diffuses incoming energy weapons, there's not much chance of actually slipping through it with a phasor. And the average hull integrity of a star destroyer I would say is actually pretty sturdy. Not unbeatable, but it will take more than a single torpedo. Those things do dwarf most ships in the federation fleet.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 03:38:41 pm
@Maniac: The federation is TINY compared to the empire/republic. Coruscant alone has a population of a single trillion, and with thousands of planets under it's aegis which likely have populations in the billions

Okay here we run into the problem that Star Wars clearly does not have any consistent cannon so you can basically make an argument for any number you want.

Consider Naboo and Tatooine, two of the planets were actually see in any sort of detail.  They clearly do not have billions of inhabitants.  Tens of millions would be my estimate.  These were two of the thousands of planets in the Old Republic.  But then later on one of the expanded universe writers decided that the average planet had a couple billion people even though we never see such an average planet at any point in any movie.

A population of that size makes little sense in the lore.  The size of the attack force that Naboo was able to muster was about the size of the attack forces that the rebels mustered at Yavin and Hoth.  So a scale that assumes that Naboo is a minow among whales is wildly inappropriate for assessing military industrial power.  If the scale that each planet is billions were true that would mean that the Galactic empire would need to be so inefficient as to make North Korea look like an economic juggernaut.

The galactic empire probably only has tens of thousands of star destroyers.  The battle of Yavin makes this seem like a generous estimate.  The USS Voyager is NCC-74656.  And the Federation added at least 10,000 starships in just a few years before Voyager was built because they were facing their first real threat in decades.

Star wars shields don't operate on frequencies however, actually being a 'barrier' which effectively diffuses incoming energy weapons, there's not much chance of actually slipping through it with a phasor. And the average hull integrity of a star destroyer I would say is actually pretty sturdy. Not unbeatable, but it will take more than a single torpedo. Those things do dwarf most ships in the federation fleet.

Literally the entire point of a phasor is to pierce unmodulated shields.  It's a phased laser.  They try to hit so many different frequencies that the enemy shield doesn't protect them all.  But in Star Wars there aren't phased shields.  So the phasor would pass straight through the shields with it's complete power.

A structural integrity field in star trek parlance refers to technology they have to use an energy field to reinforce materials.  This allows star ships to shrug off attacks that would tear through the hardest materials.

Star trek teleporters would have no trouble at all going onto a star wars ship.  They regularly teleport people off of spaceships at great distance in short order.  The things that stop teleporters in star wars are shields (which you have to modulate through but Star Wars doesn't have shield modulators) and huge amounts of matter (or structural integrity fields).

A single photon torpedo would be plenty to take out a star destroyer.  They dont have shields that can stop them.  They dont have structural integrity fields to mitigate the damage.  They would be depending on alloys to stop antimatter.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on June 26, 2016, 03:49:09 pm
That's easily explained by just how much territory the empire needs to administrate. It's a far cry from the comparatively small states.

As for the numbers thing, The population of corusant is constant and that is atleast 1 trillion, if not more. And the movies typically focussed on where the action was and not some peaceful, well-developed world far removed from the plot.

Naboo being a minnow is inline with the politics of the world. You think a pacifist nation is going to have a large military? And the rebels operated on a cell structure; while the bases on yavin and hoth were their HQs, the military hardware there likely represented only a fraction of what the rebellion had, in case the empire found a base and rolled over them as it did in the movies as it can ill afford to concentrate it's forces for anything but particularly decisive engagements.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 03:53:07 pm
Naboo being a minnow is inline with the politics of the world. You think a pacifist nation is going to have a large military? And the rebels operated on a cell structure; while the bases on yavin and hoth were their HQs, the military hardware there likely represented only a fraction of what the rebellion had, in case the empire found a base and rolled over them as it did in the movies as it can ill afford to concentrate it's forces for anything but particularly decisive engagements.

Yavin was described as the primary rebel base.  Hoth was described as a later primary rebel base.  The potential loss of the rebel forces at these locations was described as a grave threat to the rebellion, not just another cell.  Naboo has a military approximately on par with the attack force mustered at Yavin and Hoth.

So whatever the population of the galaxy is, the fact of the matter is the galaxies military potential is along the lines of what would make sense if Naboo was a typical world.  Call it googleplex people for all I care.  It's googleplex people who aren't making any military assets.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on June 26, 2016, 04:10:14 pm
The threat of those losses would've likely been smiliar to what happened to the empire; it was never the loss of material that was so damaging was it was all the command personnel that would've gone with all that equipment. The first death star took many of the empire's high-level government officials when that went up, and the emperor kicking the bucket as the second death star went up did far more damage than the material losses on those death stars.

And taking naboo as the average world is disingenuous; naboo was far from the average in terms of development and had an economy primarily based on gathering a single resource. Add to the fact they were pacifists (Meaning they saw little need for military industrial development.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on June 26, 2016, 04:25:25 pm
Star Trek exists in a post scarcity environment, Star Wars doesn't. Unless there's some ancient hokey religious win condition, the Federation and company are victorious.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 04:39:13 pm
The threat of those losses would've likely been smiliar to what happened to the empire; it was never the loss of material that was so damaging was it was all the command personnel that would've gone with all that equipment. The first death star took many of the empire's high-level government officials when that went up, and the emperor kicking the bucket as the second death star went up did far more damage than the material losses on those death stars.

And taking naboo as the average world is disingenuous; naboo was far from the average in terms of development and had an economy primarily based on gathering a single resource. Add to the fact they were pacifists (Meaning they saw little need for military industrial development.)

You say that it's disingenuous to say that naboo is typical because it's really a minnow but we dont see that on camera.  A random shopkeeper on tatooine has heard of naboo.  Whereas I live in a small town and I can go to the nearest city and people have never heard of my town.  The blockade of Naboo was enough to sink the career of the president of the galaxy.  That is not a minnow.

When I say that a phasor can shoot right through shields if it matches the frequency, that is something that is established in the lore.  Repeatedly.  When the Voyager fights the Equinox, a barely flying space hulk is able to kick the ass of a ship in fighting trim because they have the shield frequencies.  That's one of the essential facts of space combat in star trek.

And when you say that it's the high ranking leaders that is even less supported by the actual material we see.  When do we ever see Crix Madine or Bren Derlin again?  These guys are super important?  Did you even know their names?  I know I wouldn't have if I wasn't into Star Wars Rebellion.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on June 26, 2016, 06:01:12 pm
This is almost as bad as the weebs going on about reading their mangoes and watching their animated mongolian comics. I feel gladder every day that I haven't seen either of these natural-philosophy-fantasy serial publications by Tolkien that show up so often in popular culture.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 06:02:52 pm
Oh man, look at you, so cool dissing the NERDS.  ::)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 26, 2016, 06:29:49 pm
This is almost as bad as the weebs going on about reading their mangoes and watching their animated mongolian comics. I feel gladder every day that I haven't seen either of these natural-philosophy-fantasy serial publications by Tolkien that show up so often in popular culture.
Why you gotta hate on Tibetan goat herding cartoons
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on June 26, 2016, 06:59:00 pm
It's not the polynesian video drawings themselves that I find very offensive, it's just the excessive enthusiasm for azerbaijani television doodles that can be a bit off-putting.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 26, 2016, 07:01:20 pm
(http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/rwby/images/c/c2/Stay-on-topic.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140816020637)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on June 26, 2016, 07:01:57 pm
It's the underwater Luxembourgian picture flippers that really get my goat.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on June 27, 2016, 12:48:00 am
It's not the polynesian video drawings themselves that I find very offensive, it's just the excessive enthusiasm for azerbaijani television doodles that can be a bit off-putting.

You say that like you don't know Uzbek televised flipbooks aren't the only form of entertainment anyone could ever need.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Radio Controlled on June 27, 2016, 01:43:16 am
I do think star wars' ftl is much, much faster than that of star trek. An extremely important advantage, I'd say. And I got it from reading this website: http://www.stardestroyer.net
Which is an entire website dedicated to the question of star wars vs star trek. Kinda biased for the former, but interesting nonetheless.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 27, 2016, 07:20:02 am
I do think star wars' ftl is much, much faster than that of star trek. An extremely important advantage, I'd say. And I got it from reading this website: http://www.stardestroyer.net
Which is an entire website dedicated to the question of star wars vs star trek. Kinda biased for the former, but interesting nonetheless.
Tbh though that wouldn't be an issue given Star Wars' great vulnerability to asymmetrical warfare, their better logistics could be countered with gorilla warfare
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 27, 2016, 07:24:26 am
gorilla warfare
Ewoks are not gorillas!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on June 27, 2016, 07:32:41 am
Star Wars FTL is also reliant on having hyperspace lanes/charts AFAIK, which requires a lot of time to make.

But still, their sheer size and their planet-destroying super-weapons like Death Star, combined with Federation being very small and centralized around Earth, ensures the Empire's ultimate victory through annihilation of the entire Solar System.

First Contact was won by Federation only through plot fiat, and without it, Federation would've been done in by a single Borg Cube. Death Star is like a Borg Cube, but moon-sized and equipped with a long-range planet-busting super-laser.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 27, 2016, 07:42:44 am
Assuming that the federation doesn't just hastily resurrect the Pegasus program and fly an attack craft directly through the death star into the power core of the station.

Or that they dont just send half a dozen roundabouts to make an attack run at warp four on those vulnerable exhaust ports.

Star Trek clearly has the tech advantage.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on June 27, 2016, 07:46:30 am
Do they? I don't remember stuff like droids in Star TRek.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on June 27, 2016, 07:48:06 am
Do they? I don't remember stuff like droids in Star TRek.
(http://i.stack.imgur.com/ObBgt.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on June 27, 2016, 08:07:18 am
Assuming that the federation doesn't just hastily resurrect the Pegasus program and fly an attack craft directly through the death star into the power core of the station.

Or that they dont just send half a dozen roundabouts to make an attack run at warp four on those vulnerable exhaust ports.

Star Trek clearly has the tech advantage.
See, this is what I've been talking about when I've mentioned "plot fiat". Star Trek cannot win the war without relying on ridiculous outliers born from the tech-of-the-week stuff that is incredibly powerful, but doesn't exist outside of that one episode it's in.

But that actually doesn't matter at all, because since the new Star Wars movie, they (the First Order, actually, but that's even worse for this scenario, since they're just a fraction of Empire, and thus have only a fraction of full Empire's capabilities) have a super-weapon (Starkiller) capable of destroying the entire Solar System from half a galaxy away. How many years it would take for Voyager to cross that insane distance, again? IIRC it was at least several dozen years. And Star Wars can just shoot down the entire Federation from that distance, like ducks on a range.

And the capability gap is only going to get larger, since Star Wars will get new movies with new shiny stuff, while all Star Trek will get are stupid weak-ass reboots.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on June 27, 2016, 08:19:10 am
However, Star Trek at least has a stable government...
I think it's been noted by now that starkillers are a Bad investment.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on June 27, 2016, 08:20:33 am
The republic was stable, and so was the empire for the majority of it's existence.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on June 27, 2016, 12:40:50 pm
First Contact was won by Federation only through plot fiat, and without it, Federation would've been done in by a single Borg Cube. Death Star is like a Borg Cube, but moon-sized and equipped with a long-range planet-busting super-laser.
First Contact occurs after TIME TRAVEL YOU DOLT.
If a single Borg Cube flew to Earth without zapping itself to before the Federation EXISTED it would've blown up well before it got near.

Speaking of which, STAR TREK HAS TIME TRAVEL. If they really wanted they could murder up the Empire/Republic before it existed.

But still, their sheer size and their planet-destroying super-weapons like Death Star, combined with Federation being very small and centralized around Earth, ensures the Empire's ultimate victory through annihilation of the entire Solar System.
The biggest (only) advantage I'll concede to the Empire is its size. You're correct that Federation is small comparatively, though I think you're under the impression its more centralized then it is (though it IS pretty centralized)
As for "planet destroying super weapons" Federation REGULARLY fights off people with such things, and in fact ANY STARSHIP could probably do a minor "dust all the people/infrastructure off the surface with phasors" version of that.
Not to mention all the Empires "super weapons" are vulnerable to plucky teenagers they don't seem like all that much of an advantage anyway.

But that actually doesn't matter at all, because since the new Star Wars movie
DOESN'T COUNT CANON BALLS FIRED LASER SWORDS DON'T HAVE LASER HILTS
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on June 27, 2016, 05:32:52 pm
But that actually doesn't matter at all, because since the new Star Wars movie, they (the First Order, actually, but that's even worse for this scenario, since they're just a fraction of Empire, and thus have only a fraction of full Empire's capabilities) have a super-weapon (Starkiller) capable of destroying the entire Solar System from half a galaxy away. How many years it would take for Voyager to cross that insane distance, again? IIRC it was at least several dozen years. And Star Wars can just shoot down the entire Federation from that distance, like ducks on a range.

It would take less then a second for a federation ship to cross that distance at warp 4, i.e. a leisurely pace for even a runabout.

How do I know that it's a few seconds?  Because that energy beam is travelling slower then the speed of light.  We are shown people looking up from the surface of the planets in horror at the approaching beam.  This would not be possible if it was FTL.  So from this we can conclude that every one of those targets is in the same system.

...Either that or Star Wars jumped the shark and JJ Abrams gives zero shits about the lore or common sense.

Look sometimes in science fiction people fuck up and say things that make zero fucking sense.  In Voyager there is an episode where they develop the ability to instantly travel across the galaxy and travel back in time while "evolving" into lizards... the less said about that episode the better.  You dont hear me saying however that in Star Trek it's possible to do transwarp travel across the galaxy instantly on the basis of that episode.  If I were to talk about transwarp, I'd talk about the reasonable stuff we see later.  But honestly I'd rather not talk about transwarp at all.

So if you say that the Empire can blow up earth from the other side of the galaxy I will say that the Federation can travel back in time and make sure that Palpatine is put into a proper foster home.  But in both cases you are relying on the worst thought out parts of the lore.  I like the parts of the lore that are clearly established and come up a lot.  Dont throw out the stuff that actually happens on camera on the basis of someones brain fart where they decided that the galaxy has eleventy septillion citizens or that lasers can travel between star systems.

How long did it take Voyager to travel halfway across the galaxy?  Well it took them decades but there is a real discontinuity there.  Federation ships regularly travel a quarter of the way across the galaxy in months.  Yet it takes years to travel halfway across the galaxy.  Surprisingly in all those seasons they never really explain why this is.  My best explanation is that Voyager is facing some sort of constraint that keeps them from travelling like ships normally do.  That is why it takes them two years to leave Kazon space despite the Kazon being so much slower then Voyager.


The republic was stable, and so was the empire for the majority of it's existence.

Dude, like one tenth of the old republic left to form the corporate sector IN ONE GO and they didn't even resist.  This is on top of them completely losing track of worlds like Bespin, Tatooine or not even knowing about the existence of a sentient race on Endor.  The empire has about as much control on it's territory as Afghanistan.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 01, 2016, 09:08:12 pm
If we're arguing about the physics of planet killer craft, I feel I should point out that the vast majority of all space vessels in both franchises could simply accelerate into and obliterate the planet/star/battlestation of their choice, using the fact that their realspace engines are very, very powerful, and do not seem to have fuel concerns.

A few tons of spaceship moving at 0.9999999c is a very scary thing, and nothing seems to prevent either franchise from making lots and lots of them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 01, 2016, 09:22:31 pm
Star Trek ships barely have any velocity at all.  The warp drive works by distorting space, not adding kinetic velocity.

Star Wars?  I dunno.  Looks like some sort of wormhole thingie.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: stabbymcstabstab on July 01, 2016, 10:11:17 pm
I'm pretty sure the Empire would win simply by the fact the Star Wars Universe has had mass organized space warfare over the scale of a galaxy for what? several thousand years at least? and Star Trek has had it for a couple centuries on the scale of singular battles? I think the Federation might be a little screwed.


Also seeing the fact it look like that when the Star Killer fired you could literally see it on a totally different planet, in a completely different star system, with your eyes in broad daylight. Even if it couldn't fire out of whatever cluster of stars it's in, it could travel through hyperspace by itself. All it would need to do what get to a star in the region of Earth and fire.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 01, 2016, 11:05:20 pm
I'm pretty sure the Empire would win simply by the fact the Star Wars Universe has had mass organized space warfare over the scale of a galaxy for what? several thousand years at least? and Star Trek has had it for a couple centuries on the scale of singular battles? I think the Federation might be a little screwed.

By the same logic, Song dynasty China would walk all over the United States.  After all, China had been engaging in mass warfare with a mix of professional soldiers and levies for four thousand years by the time of the Song dynasty.  The US military on the other hand has only been using full spectrum warfare for a mere two decades.  No way those n00bs in the US military can stand up against four thousand years of experience!

Also space warfare traditions go back to at least two thousand years ago.  After losing the civil war with the Vulcans, Romulans visited earth around the time of the founding of Rome.  So the Vulcans, one of the founding four races of the federation and a group that maintains a military separately from the federation have been engaging in space combat for 2700 years now at least.  The Xindi (a federation enemy) have had space combat for at least four thousand years.

But really that's just a distraction from the more relevant point that the technology disparity between the Federation and the Galactic empire is about the same as the tech disparity between the US Marine Corp and ancient Sumar.

Also seeing the fact it look like that when the Star Killer fired you could literally see it on a totally different planet, in a completely different star system, with your eyes in broad daylight. Even if it couldn't fire out of whatever cluster of stars it's in, it could travel through hyperspace by itself. All it would need to do what get to a star in the region of Earth and fire.

And if we are going to go for full trumps instead of discussing the military battles actually depicted, the Federation would just send  a ship back in time and change the timeline.

And it's not like the Federation doesn't have the ability to destroy a planet.  They could just turn on a cloaking device and start erasing planets with protomatter.  So the thing that takes a Death Star for the empire is something any ship the federation has could be equipped to do if they deemed it necessary.  But it's a bit silly, the federation isn't going to sit around for fifteen years letting the Empire build a death star and they aren't going to strike first with protomatter.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 01, 2016, 11:27:45 pm
Star Trek ships barely have any velocity at all.  The warp drive works by distorting space, not adding kinetic velocity.

Star Wars?  I dunno.  Looks like some sort of wormhole thingie.

I'm acting under the assumption both sides have engines that allow them to change their realspace velocity without firing up big scary warp drives. Star Wars ships definitely have non-hyperspace engines. These engines seem to have pretty good acceleration, and don't seem to need much fuel. That gives you a planet killer, at least if you give it a while to speed up first. You don't need to be moving at warp speed to blow up a planet, just a little bit below the speed of light, since relativistic effects become exponentially stronger the closer you get to c.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 01, 2016, 11:42:07 pm
The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 01, 2016, 11:45:35 pm
The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

If anything, the fact that near c kinetic kill vehicles to planets isn't the preeminent form of warfare in either universe says that it's either taboo or not effective.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 01, 2016, 11:53:46 pm
The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

Inertialess drives/non-newtonian accelerators/whatever the heck are even more terrifying, unless given arbitrary limitations by the author specifically to avoid their use as weapons.

The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

If anything, the fact that near c kinetic kill vehicles to planets isn't the preeminent form of warfare in either universe says that it's either taboo or not effective.

My default assumption is that it's taboo, a taboo that will be broken in sufficient emergency, like nukes in our world.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 01, 2016, 11:58:36 pm
The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

Inertialess drives/non-newtonian accelerators/whatever the heck are even more terrifying, unless given arbitrary limitations by the author specifically to avoid their use as weapons.

The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

If anything, the fact that near c kinetic kill vehicles to planets isn't the preeminent form of warfare in either universe says that it's either taboo or not effective.

My default assumption is that it's taboo, a taboo that will be broken in sufficient emergency, like nukes in our world.

We see an awful lot of desperate straights in both universes, though. Why build a death star if you can get a beater starship to do it?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 12:00:15 am
If anything, the fact that near c kinetic kill vehicles to planets isn't the preeminent form of warfare in either universe says that it's either taboo or not effective.

When the engine fails the ship doesn't hurtle forward, it just stops.  It doesn't have any energy.  If you want to give a mass kinetic energy you are going to need to supply that with energy from your anti matter core.  You are stuck back in the realm of Newtonian physics.  And if you are doing that, why not just send down an antimatter torpedo?  A kinetic killer might always just harmlessly pass through the planet because some clever captain got the idea of putting it into a warp bubble for a few seconds.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 02, 2016, 12:19:58 am
@maniniac: In fairness, above .84c you get more energy per impactor mass than antimatter, but I see your point.

The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

Inertialess drives/non-newtonian accelerators/whatever the heck are even more terrifying, unless given arbitrary limitations by the author specifically to avoid their use as weapons.

The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

If anything, the fact that near c kinetic kill vehicles to planets isn't the preeminent form of warfare in either universe says that it's either taboo or not effective.

My default assumption is that it's taboo, a taboo that will be broken in sufficient emergency, like nukes in our world.

We see an awful lot of desperate straights in both universes, though. Why build a death star if you can get a beater starship to do it?

Why spend billions bombarding enemy positions with fighter-bombers and tomahawk missiles of only uncertain effectiveness when you could drop a nuke and end it?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 12:23:09 am
@maniniac: In fairness, above .84c you get more energy per impactor mass than antimatter, but I see your point.

I guess they should ditch those antimatter warp cores and install flywheels.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 02, 2016, 12:26:33 am
I would guess that flywheels don't like holding together under the centripetal/centrifugal force of rotational velocities near c, whereas a straight velocity doesn't inherently try to tear you apart.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 02, 2016, 01:20:39 am
@maniniac: In fairness, above .84c you get more energy per impactor mass than antimatter, but I see your point.

The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

Inertialess drives/non-newtonian accelerators/whatever the heck are even more terrifying, unless given arbitrary limitations by the author specifically to avoid their use as weapons.

The sublight maneuvers in both lores are distinctly non Newtonian.  You are talking about them like they are rockets capable of indefinite acceleration.  They aren't.

If anything, the fact that near c kinetic kill vehicles to planets isn't the preeminent form of warfare in either universe says that it's either taboo or not effective.

My default assumption is that it's taboo, a taboo that will be broken in sufficient emergency, like nukes in our world.

We see an awful lot of desperate straights in both universes, though. Why build a death star if you can get a beater starship to do it?

Why spend billions bombarding enemy positions with fighter-bombers and tomahawk missiles of only uncertain effectiveness when you could drop a nuke and end it?

Because it's not important enough to pay the political cost of a nuke. An all out war implies that it is worth that cost.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 02, 2016, 01:37:03 am
Not necessarily.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on July 02, 2016, 03:57:59 am
Not necessarily.
mini-rant: Depends on how all-out. Hermann Kahn, the Cold-War Theorist who was one of three inspirations for the character of Dr. Strangelove, with such lovely book titles as On Thermonuclear War, Thinking about the Unthinkable, and On Escalation, was a staple of my tween years. He theorized the existence of a "Escalation ladder". Whereas most thinking about Nuclear Weapons traditionally imagines that Nuclear weapons are a very simple "Yes/No" value, he argued that Nuclear Weapons had their place on the "ladder" of confrontation, where the bottom  rung is "Ostensible Crisis" and the Top rung is "Spasm or Insensate Nuclear Warfare", and everything else inbetween covers everything else, from shows of force to legal and diplomatic sanctions, from limited conventional warfare, to Nuclear Ultimatums, and from Local "Exemplary" use of nuclear weapons to limited military usage, all the way up to targeting of civilians to various extents. No such crisis needed to go through every single step on the ladder, he thought, so a situation COULD just develop straight to "general nuking of everything", but it need not. There are stages between using war and nuclear war, and there are stages between local nuclear war or military nuclear war and the popular image of sending 50-megaton bombs to all the major cities. I'd say that this ladder would only become more diverse and complicated when different types of WMDs are used with wildly different capabilities, so the space version of the Escalation ladder must be pretty complex.
Spoiler: The Ladder (click to show/hide)
Arguably, that ladder is also one of the biggest issues with hypothetical wars in general. With a hypothetical war you have to "assume" that one stage or another is being used, when reality might be different. The Federation here might be superior in one localized, "conventional" space conflict limited to one solar system, while the Empire might clearly win out in any sort of multi-system war, while perhaps the Federation has a significant when it comes to a localized military-targeted WMD-using conflict, while perhaps the Empire has a slight advantage when it comes to "blindly flinging the strongest bombs we have at any target that presents itself." We might end by saying that the one who is best at the last stage wins, but the issue is that the results of a real war will depend on what stage is actually used, and when, whether, and how much the rung of escalation changes (can't nuke anyone if you lose your entire fleet in conventional warfare, for example). Do the Federation and the Empire start off by flinging both the regular and jury-rigged WMDs at major population centers? Most wars don't start that way. In fact, no war has ever started that way. And if they don't start that way, when do they get there? These are questions the Armchair general must answer.

TL;DR In short, I'd say it's impossible to analyze how a "real" war would go between the two, while it might be worthwhile to figure out who has the advantage in a variety of different scenarios, and then guess from there what that means.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 02, 2016, 04:59:43 am


Why spend billions bombarding enemy positions with fighter-bombers and tomahawk missiles of only uncertain effectiveness when you could drop a nuke and end it?

Because you get a level of control with fighter bomber you don't get with nukes. The Death Star sole purpose is to blow up planets. If a KKV could do it at a fraction of the cost they'd use that. In a world with KKV, the Death Star would be the equivalent of designing an gigantic airship that can litterally drop a million tons of TNT on your target so you get the effect of a nuke without a nuke.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 02, 2016, 07:17:17 am
I'm pretty sure the Empire would win simply by the fact the Star Wars Universe has had mass organized space warfare over the scale of a galaxy for what? several thousand years at least? and Star Trek has had it for a couple centuries on the scale of singular battles? I think the Federation might be a little screwed.
The Star Wars Universe has had ONE mass organized space war. The same one over and over. Jedi vs. Sith. Jedi vs. Sith. Rinse, repeat.
The entire galaxy has experience fighting ONE enemy, whereas in Star Trek the Federation has fought Klingons, Romulans, Borg, Dominion, Cardassians, Breen, NUMEROUS PHYSICAL GODS, etc. All of which fight in entirely different ways from each other.

Even if the Empire has fought for longer, it doesn't have anything close to the experience the Federation has, because its only had one experience, over and over.
Its like how the Aztecs only ever fought other light infantry units while Europe had cavalry, heavy armor, gunpowder, pike formations, etc. to deal with.
And we all know who won that fight.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 08:51:56 am
I would guess that flywheels don't like holding together under the centripetal/centrifugal force of rotational velocities near c, whereas a straight velocity doesn't inherently try to tear you apart.

They could make a "flywheel" that has a linear velocity and then trap it in a warp bubble to keep it in the ship.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 08:55:50 am
Because you get a level of control with fighter bomber you don't get with nukes. The Death Star sole purpose is to blow up planets. If a KKV could do it at a fraction of the cost they'd use that. In a world with KKV, the Death Star would be the equivalent of designing an gigantic airship that can litterally drop a million tons of TNT on your target so you get the effect of a nuke without a nuke.

A death star might actually be more cost effective then a KKV.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 02, 2016, 01:50:30 pm
Very true. Once built, instead of losing a starship every time it fires, you just use some generic starship fuel. Spacecraft RKKVs are basically kamikazes: Effective, but dubious in a number of ways.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 01:59:52 pm
I think they are less like kamikazee and more like ammunition.  Comparing the Death Star to a KKV is like comparing an M1 tank to a M829 shell.  Looking at the shell doesn't tell you a whole lot about the actual cost of the system since most of the cost is in getting that shell going fast in the right direction and the supply lines to do that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 02, 2016, 03:56:57 pm
Well, you can build KKVs that are just ammunition, torpedos in effect, but just taking scrapyard spacecraft and throwing them at the foe under automated control is very kamikaze-esque.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 02, 2016, 04:23:17 pm
I seem to remember from Star Wars Expanded Universe that most planets in Star Wars are supposed to have some kind of shields that usually prevent anything too high-velocity (like a RKKV) from destroying it, and that Death Star is unique and special because it pierces these shields by using exotic hyperspace effects.

But that's no longer canon since Disney took over, so :-X
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 04:46:04 pm
Well, you can build KKVs that are just ammunition, torpedos in effect, but just taking scrapyard spacecraft and throwing them at the foe under automated control is very kamikaze-esque.

Once again, the difficulty is not in acquiring the mass.  The difficulty is in accelerating it to a speed close to 1c (which no starship in either cannon does) and aiming it.  To do that you would need some sort of giant mass accelerating weapon... like a massive star station. This is a bit like someone talking about a super advanced advanced battery and you pull out your pocket change and say "hey dont worry, I have a variety of metals right here".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 02, 2016, 05:19:47 pm
It very much looks to me as if various fighters and craft in at least Star Wars have engines that mess with their realspace velocity and don't need much fuel. That gives you near-c capabilities. If they don't have that, then my point is fairly meaningless, but it looks as if they do.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 02, 2016, 05:58:58 pm
Star Trek does, too (the impulse engines are basically sufficiently advanced deuterium fusion rockets), though I wouldn't be surprised if they did use low-level warp fields to reduce their inertial mass even at sublight speeds given on-screen non-Newtonian behaviour.  We also know that Star Trek routinely utilizes shielding technology sufficient to deflect anything from micrometeroids to asteroids even on wee little shuttles while moving at superluminal velocities; basically, anything with a warp drive has to mount a navigational deflector of some scale to prevent it from getting shredded.  It wouldn't take much speculation to extrapolate outwards to much more powerful deflector/tractor beam systems utilized as meteor defense networks, given the lack of observed kinetic WMDs in that universe. 

Honestly, I suspect another stopping point for KKVs as WMDs in either 'verse is FTL sensor technology.  One of the advantages of an RKV is that it travels at a velocity rather close to the speed of information; by the time you see it and process that information, you've been hit.  The Killing Star works in large part because humanity never sees its death coming.  If you can see outward and process data taken in from a sphere at least ten light-years radius in a matter of seconds with the sensors and computers aboard a single starship, you'll be able to identify incoming projectiles fairly quickly and place countermeasures in effect for once those projectiles actually arrive.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 06:24:02 pm
It very much looks to me as if various fighters and craft in at least Star Wars have engines that mess with their realspace velocity and don't need much fuel. That gives you near-c capabilities. If they don't have that, then my point is fairly meaningless, but it looks as if they do.

If they were increasing their kinetic energy they would have inertia when they turned.  That energy would need to go somewhere.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NRDL on July 02, 2016, 10:46:55 pm
Okay, for another Sci Fi faction, how about the Daleks from Doctor Who?  How would they do against any of the forces presented in Star Wars and Star Trek?

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 02, 2016, 10:48:21 pm
Hmmm, you know, it occurs to me that I've never seen all that many stairs on Federation starships.  I don't think they'd be able to handle a proper Dalek outbreak.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 02, 2016, 11:23:29 pm
Star Trek has ladders but the Daleks strike me as a pretty dangerous foe with the time travel.  Hard to say how the Federation would respond because it's time travel and all.  The Federation of the 22nd to 24th centuries shies away from weaponizing time travel but the Federation of the 31st century seems to have an active interest in defending against time travel.  But we dont know very much about the 31st century federation. So ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 02, 2016, 11:51:43 pm
I'd say Dalek Empire and Temporal Federation are about evenly matched, given that both seem to have the ability and willingness to tie knots of time around their enemies. However, the Daleks have a major experience advantage and at least a minor motivational advantage. They don't have perfect time war capability and so it's possible the Temporal Federation could defeat them or become one with them leading to the creation of the Borg,

Star Wars is massively, but not completely fucked. While time travel negates almost all other weapon advantages Star Wars is definitely closer to the Dalek's conventional power level. The fucked part comes in when there's very little time manipulation in SW. The exception is that force users seem to have almost universal limited precog, which eliminates some but not all time attacks (can't pop out of an air vent and shoot you, can still go back and glass your homeworld before you're born). The most likely path for a SW victory is if the threat of the Daleks is enough to bring out the Force's direct intervention. As a universal energy field that can mess with time, if the Force is pushed to direct action the Daleks don't have a chance in hell.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 03, 2016, 04:32:48 am
And what about the Imperium of Man vs. Star Trek?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 03, 2016, 06:18:45 am
Imperium of Man loses horribly, due to their insanely slow reaction times, massively fractured military with constant infighting, and zero technological advancement.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 03, 2016, 11:34:06 am
Although isn't their empire big enough to offset that?

To throw some fantasy in the sci-fi (although it's probably been discussed already), is there any (tech-equivalent) answer to pike and shot? It's such a crappy end to the swords and horses era.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on July 03, 2016, 11:59:39 am
Yeah, the imperium would just be far too big, and far too much of a a zombie for the federation to have a chance. Plus it only takes something like the Speranza to really throw a wrench into an invasion (Besides, the imperium has had worse.)

@Tack not really. You don't exactly have many counters to pike and shot around the era it was invented. Artillery isn't that viable yet and cavalry needs to needs to hit the formation from the flanks or the rear to be effective.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 03, 2016, 12:04:25 pm
An answer as in a way to defeat? A larger, better trained populace. Like if you can field an equivalent number of longbowmen or so. The great strength (or at least, a large part of) pike and shot is its simplicity. Holding a long stick and doing formation drills isn't hard, pointing a crossbow and pulling the trigger isn't hard. Also, the equipment is decently simple. Crossbows maybe not, but pikes amount to a slightly worked pole and a spike. They're not the strongest, they're just really efficient for conscripting a big army.

I picked longbowmen as an example because they're generally probably more effective than crossbowmen, but they need a lot of training. Similarly, doppelsoldners/other greatsword-armed soldiers are pretty effective at dealing with pikes, but have a much higher cost of equipping and need more training.

Pike and shot got one-upped by firearms because they're also pretty simple to use, but better. Artillery are pretty ridiculously efficent against tight formations, which also wrecked them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 03, 2016, 12:06:58 pm
EDIT: Two replies beat me, both already much better.  Read them instead. ^_^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 03, 2016, 12:20:28 pm
So all they needed to do was make the yeoman act less about longbows and more about zweihanders?

A funny mental picture at the very least.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 03, 2016, 12:58:11 pm
swords and horses era.
Swords were usually back-up weapons, like pistols in modern army, due to them being rather bad for breaking through armor. Real knights used halberds and pole-axes.

Just nitpicking.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 03, 2016, 01:09:33 pm
So all they needed to do was make the yeoman act less about longbows and more about zweihanders?

A funny mental picture at the very least.

And have a lot more of them, which is really the crusher. I think it says a lot about the crossbow that at one point the nobility lobbied for the Pope to ban them, they were that disgustingly effective even in a peasant's hands.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 03, 2016, 01:11:28 pm
Good armor-piecring crossbows were kind of not cheap, so it's unlikely you would find them in peasant hands.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 03, 2016, 01:21:40 pm
Good armor-piecring crossbows were kind of not cheap, so it's unlikely you would find them in peasant hands.

Pretty much any crossbow at short range against mail isn't going to be a happy fun time. Much less so against plate, but plate was a lot less common for quite a while. I think somewhere around the 14th C it started picking up a lot more, but knights in mail was the standard for quite a while around the Crusades era.

But your point is valid. Not all crossbows were equal, I agree. They can just have a much higher effective draw than a conventional bow and still be useable, which counts for a lot.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 03, 2016, 01:27:42 pm
Pike and shot is a very early 16th century innovation, though.  It postdates the arquebus.  While crossbows were used in combined arms with infantry, it's not really pike and shot specifically.  Where pike and shot specifically differs from previous methods of combined arms was its use of gunpowder arms, which had greater stopping power and reach. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 03, 2016, 03:17:07 pm
To throw some fantasy in the sci-fi (although it's probably been discussed already), is there any (tech-equivalent) answer to pike and shot? It's such a crappy end to the swords and horses era.
Winged Hussars.
:*

Spoiler: ITT: Fuck pikemen. (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 03, 2016, 04:32:03 pm
Iirc the landsknight generally didn't wear much armor, so both swords and crossbows should've been fine. But pikes 2 stronk.
Would be interested to see if a Swiss pike square would beat a post-Marian cohort or Macedonian phalanx.
Like deadliest warrior but good.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 03, 2016, 06:01:38 pm
Okay, for another Sci Fi faction, how about the Daleks from Doctor Who?  How would they do against any of the forces presented in Star Wars and Star Trek?
Daleks win.
This is a race ready and willing to DESTROY THE MULTIVERSE to win.
No one in Wars or Trek have that kind of dedication.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 04, 2016, 12:46:53 am
I guess it'd have to be the big evil from that faction against the big evil from other factions. We know the Daleks would nail the Empire, but...

Daleks vs Borg
Daleks vs Replicators

Could be interesting.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 04, 2016, 04:51:06 am
Daleks vs Borg
Daleks vs Replicators

Could be interesting.
Daleks win. That's the end of it.
Similarly to how Trek is tiers higher on the tech pole then Star Wars, the Daleks are at least as many tiers higher then Trek. Yes, even the Borg.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 04, 2016, 05:24:30 am
Yeah, Time War Daleks are near the very top of all sci-fi civilizations ranked by power. Only Time Lords are above them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 04, 2016, 05:47:02 am
To throw some fantasy in the sci-fi (although it's probably been discussed already), is there any (tech-equivalent) answer to pike and shot? It's such a crappy end to the swords and horses era.
Winged Hussars.
:*

Spoiler: ITT: Fuck pikemen. (click to show/hide)
Don't forget carabiners and mongolians
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 04, 2016, 09:20:57 am
(Star Gate/Trek is not exactly my area, so I have no idea how powerful those things are.)
If I recall correctly, the Daleks couldn't actually manipulate time and space, they were just borderline invincible wherever or whenever they happened to be.
Either way, they all lose to Khorne [/copout]
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 04, 2016, 10:39:03 am
So all they needed to do was make the yeoman act less about longbows and more about zweihanders?

A funny mental picture at the very least.
The big misconception was that the doppelsoldners had an advantage because they could use their swords to chop the ends off pikes. This...may or may not be possible? No, their main advantage came from their weapons being shorter than pikes, but longer than what sidearms the enemy might have. So during a large push of pike they would exploit gaps, because once you had gotten past the tips of the pikes you were in little danger and you could close with the enemy and start controlling a large area with your huge sword, worsening the gap in their formation.

Would be interested to see if a Swiss pike square would beat a post-Marian cohort or Macedonian phalanx.
There was actually a post about just that on Sufficient Velocity, except it was a Spanish tercio. IIRC the determination was that 15th century gunfire would send them running.

Fakeedit: https://forums.sufficientvelocity.com/threads/spanish-tercio-versus-three-roman-legions.2358/#post-244177
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 10:40:17 am
Similarly to how Trek is tiers higher on the tech pole then Star Wars, the Daleks are at least as many tiers higher then Trek. Yes, even the Borg.

The entire point to the borg and the replicators is how they are good at reverse engineering technology.  If ever a single Dalek gets broken and lost, the Borg and replicators will reverse engineer all that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 04, 2016, 10:48:52 am
Similarly to how Trek is tiers higher on the tech pole then Star Wars, the Daleks are at least as many tiers higher then Trek. Yes, even the Borg.

The entire point to the borg and the replicators is how they are good at reverse engineering technology.  If ever a single Dalek gets broken and lost, the Borg and replicators will reverse engineer all that.
Borg "reverse engineering" didn't help them against Species 8472. And that level of technology was way below the Daleks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 04, 2016, 10:55:33 am
Similarly to how Trek is tiers higher on the tech pole then Star Wars, the Daleks are at least as many tiers higher then Trek. Yes, even the Borg.

The entire point to the borg and the replicators is how they are good at reverse engineering technology.  If ever a single Dalek gets broken and lost, the Borg and replicators will reverse engineer all that.
Borg "reverse engineering" didn't help them against Species 8472. And that level of technology was way below the Daleks.
^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 11:00:17 am
It's an adaptation race.  The Federation is able to adapt to the Borg just a little faster then the Borg can adapt to new Federation tactics.  The Borg are very bad at assimilating Species 8472 ideas so Species 8472 can adapt to fight the Borg far faster then the Borg can adapt to fight Species 8472.

Now how quickly or slowly do the Daleks adapt to the unknown?  What about the Daleks make them difficult or easy for the Borg to assimilate their technology?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 04, 2016, 12:09:55 pm
Mayhaps Mass Effect reapers would be better as an adaption race. Unsure if Daleks can be indoctrinated, but hey.

So during a large push of pike they would exploit gaps, because once you had gotten past the tips of the pikes you were in little danger and you could close with the enemy and start controlling a large area with your huge sword, worsening the gap in their formation.
I'm even skeptical on that mark, as most pike formations were able to put multiple ranks of pikes ahead of the formation. There's a reason why a formation with 18000 pikes had 2000 doppelhanders, especially if the pikemen were the powerful charging force like the early Swiss, rather than the slow tercios present later.
I think the greatswords were simply too cool/fashionable for people to accept that they weren't a winning weapon.

Quote
The determination was that 15th century gunfire would send them running.
A really interesting read- although yeah I'd prefer the pike square comparison rather than the tercio simply for the lack of firearms present.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 12:51:00 pm
Mayhaps Mass Effect reapers would be better as an adaption race.

The Mass Effect reapers are very inconsistent because the writers of mass effect 2 were utterly lacking in creativity.  We are told they are adaptable and planners but then they show up and they aren't any of these things.  Possibly even worse then Star Wars.

The reapers also are on the lower tech side of things.  They have computers but they are bound by newtonian physics outside of FTL.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 04, 2016, 12:55:11 pm
So, the ranking so far seems to be Time Lords > Dalek > Star Trek > Star Wars > Imperium of Man > Battlestar Galactica ?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 01:11:39 pm
Star Wars is absolutely more powerful than Star Trek, and I don't know how anybody could think otherwise. Star Wars has casual interstellar travel and many, many thousands of years of technological stagnation at a level that is far beyond Trek. Trek, at least during the show period, is still getting established in the galaxy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 04, 2016, 01:14:43 pm
So, the ranking so far seems to be Time Lords > Dalek > Star Trek > Star Wars > Imperium of Man > Battlestar Galactica ?
Add Xeelee between Dalek and Star Trek, too. They're kind of bonkers strong, the only reason why they're below is that they're still technically bound by physical laws, and Daleks/Time Lords are not, due to their ability to rewrite laws of reality with Eye of Harmony at their strongest showings.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 04, 2016, 01:15:31 pm
What the heck are Xeelee?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 01:19:28 pm
So, the ranking so far seems to be Imperium of Man > Time Lords > Dalek > Star Trek > Star Wars > Battlestar Galactica ?
Ordo Chronos dissaproves.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 04, 2016, 01:21:03 pm
When I saw it was you posting, my first though was "No Kot, Winged Hussars don't defeat the Daleks".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 01:24:12 pm
What the heck are Xeelee?
The Xeelee are an alien race who are the undisputed masters of baryonic matter in the universe. They have technology beyond the scope of any other such species, including runner up humanity, who for all their power only manage to repeatedly fuck up all the carefully laid megaprojects the Xeelee are invested in and never achieve any real victories.

To give an idea of the kind of technology we're talking about here: The Xeelee are the creators of the Great Attractor. The Xeelee have seeded the timeline up to this point with machines that contain automated creation procedures for their species, allowing them to essentially make themselves from dust at any point in time. The Xeelee have a time-traveling AI called the Anti-Xeelee that resists changes to time that are non-optimal for the Xeelee.

The only threat to them in-universe are a species made of dark matter instead of baryonic matter, the Photino Birds.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 01:38:46 pm
When I saw it was you posting, my first though was "No Kot, Winged Hussars don't defeat the Daleks".
Well, it was shown that Dalek Gunstick beam could reflect back and destroy the Dalek if it struck a reflective surface.
Winged Hussars are pretty much covered in reflective surfaces because bling of war.

Thus, Winged Hussars defeat the Daleks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 04, 2016, 01:39:45 pm
From what setting are they?

Anyway, I just though of the real reason Star Wars would beat Star Trek. Star Trek FTL is SLOW. If war broke out on the Frontier, the first thing Starfleet would know about it is when Star Destroyer shows up in Earth Orbit.

So:

Time Lords > Dalek > Xeelee > Star Wars > Honorverse > Star Trek > Imperium of Man > Battlestar Galactica

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 04, 2016, 01:44:31 pm
Honorverse > Star Trek
them's the fighting words m8
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 01:44:40 pm
From what setting are they?
Xeelee Sequence. (It's that sort of thing.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 02:03:37 pm
Completly seriously now, why Imperium of Man is so low? I mean, okay, not going to argue with Doctor Who circlejerk and Star Wars vs Imperium of Man question is old as fuck and has been resolved both ways, but Star Trek? Seriously? Those guys have barely any real weaponry, their FTL is proably even slower than Warp and so on.
As for Honorverse, I am not really sure but it seems it would have won even with Star Wars in space pretty easily, just by looking at the weaponry.

Also, this is all only space combat.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 02:08:59 pm
We sort of run into an issue when it comes to the Imperium due to scale. Taken all together, the Imperium could defeat all of Star Trek, but it would be through drowning their worlds in the wreckage of Imperial ships. One on one, the Imperium can't beat Trek because Trek ships are very small, very powerful for their size, and highly versatile.

It's like trying to fight patrol cutters with an aircraft carrier, except all the cutters have destroyer-level armament. Radically outside the norm.

While it's absolutely in character for the Imperium to throw people at a problem until they drown it with their corpses, it still puts Trek at a technically higher power level.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 04, 2016, 02:17:13 pm
Also, add Halo to the list. Below Imperium of Man.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on July 04, 2016, 02:24:28 pm
To be fair though, it's not just the ships that should be taken into account, the ability to also take and hold planets should also be included.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 05:03:51 pm
Star Wars has casual interstellar travel and many, many thousands of years of technological stagnation at a level that is far beyond Trek.

The only technology that exists in Star Wars but not Star Trek is lightsabers.  All they do is "bigger".  A blaster has no place in Star Trek because it's hopelessly primitive to be shooting slow plasma at your enemy when you could be hitting them at the speed of light with energy that doesn't even travel in the same physical dimensions as their armor occupies.  In Star Wars slow plasma are the height of offensive technology.

Star Trek has replicators, no Star Wars equivalent.  Star Trek has sun destroying technology, no Star Wars equivalent. Star Trek has cloaking devices, no Star Wars equivalent.  Star Trek has computers capable of running complex physical simulations, no Star Wars equivalent.

It's thousands of years of technological stagnation alright.  But it sure aint beyond Trek.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 05:05:19 pm
Bigger is better, and you're also discounting the Force.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 05:06:23 pm
Bigger is better

So a 16th century Galleon is a better weapon then an attack helicopter?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 05:07:44 pm
It is if that Galleon has flak guns on it. The weapons gap is minuscule.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 05:10:50 pm
The weapons gap is minuscule.

Not remotely.

And this is a very roundabout argument.  You said bigger was better but now you are saying bigger is better because they are the same.  It seems like the bigger is better statement was completely freaking irrelevant.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 05:14:40 pm
Literally the symbol of Star Wars is a superweapon.

Also:
Star Trek has replicators, no Star Wars equivalent.
Still easily out-masses Trek, negating advantage.
Quote
Star Trek has sun destroying technology, no Star Wars equivalent.
Sun Crusher
Quote
Star Trek has cloaking devices, no Star Wars equivalent.
Cloaking is common in Star Wars.
Quote
Star Trek has computers capable of running complex physical simulations, no Star Wars equivalent.
SW AI is a better advantage.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Radio Controlled on July 04, 2016, 05:15:53 pm
Again, that site linked earlier gives a very strong case as to why star wars would 'beat' star trek, with quite some numbers and sources and such to back it up. Yes, it is rather pro-SW/anti-ST, but even so they make a compelling argument.

Here's an abbreviated version of their comparison: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Essays/FiveMinutes.html
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 05:23:41 pm
Again, that site linked earlier gives a very strong case as to why star wars would 'beat' star trek, with quite some numbers and sources and such to back it up. Yes, it is rather pro-SW/anti-ST, but even so they make a compelling argument.

Here's an abbreviated version of their comparison: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Essays/FiveMinutes.html


It draws from expanded universe of no consistency and it ignores that Star Wars uses the crude application of power while Star Trek is more refined.  A squadron of charging knights on horseback had more kinetic energy then a shot from a MBT.  Maybe we should conclude the knights are more advanced?

Also the bias is strong as hell.  It claims that the best example of planetary destruction in Star Trek is the die is cast.  How about By Inferno's Light part 2 where there is a plan to blow up an entire solar system.  ::)  So I wouldn't call that much of a credible judge.

This crude comparisons of numbers reminds me a lot of the people who say that the King Tiger was more advanced then modern MBTs because the armor was thicker and the gun was bigger.  That's not an indication of technology level!  It doesn't matter much that the powerplant on the Star Destroyer shield is bigger then the Enterprise if the enterprise can modulate it's phasers and shoot right through!

Literally the symbol of Star Wars is a superweapon.

Yes, a crude inefficient superweapon that takes a vast effort to do what in Star Trek people are afraid of a single ship doing.  Which really shows how mind boggling primitive Star Wars is in comparison.  It's like how the Germans couldn't flatten London during the Blitz but these days we are afraid of a single terrorist with a suitcase nuke doing something like that.  You are arguing that Germany is more advanced because it's iconic.

No the higher level technology is clearly the people who can do it with less effort.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 04, 2016, 05:29:19 pm
The numbers for Star Wars are so damn high not because their ships are powerful, but because the people who gave those numbers have NO GODDAMN SENSE OF SCALE.
Its clear they just picked the highest number they could pull out of their ass at any given moment.

Oh, and something they mentioned "Subject changes are quiet admissions that the Empire would wipe the floor with Trek" is hilarious because all the subject changes here have been after I refuted some Star Wars bullshit.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 04, 2016, 05:34:30 pm
It's fairly well established that 40k beats Star Wars every time. Star Trek ships are fast and shielded, but they can't really deal with Nova Cannons or swarms upon swarms of strikecraft.

And this is including expanded universe in all Thrawn's glory.

Honorverse is on par with Imperium, who wins is mostly a question of how ridiculous the stars you're using for 40k are, and therefore determine whether the Honorverse ships can pepper enough lasers into the Imperial ships to kill them before they arrive.

Also you forgot to put the Culture at the top of the list. Or near it, at least.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 05:54:06 pm
And then there is Speranza and Wh40k wins everytime with everything (except Doctor Who maybe, becuase I literally have no idea what it is about but then there is this guy in a spaceship looking like porta-potty that fucks around in time and space) basically. Casually shooting Black Holes at enemy and moving them around in time and other random shit.
Though, there is only one of those (at least active and in Imperial hands) in Wh40k, apparently, but there are many other examples of ridiculously overpowered archeotech.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 06:00:14 pm
It's fairly well established that 40k beats Star Wars every time.

Seems like a hard comparison.  Star Wars is Space Opera while 40k is Space Fantasy.  40k it's just magic.  Seems dodgy to say how magic would interact with technology.  In fact that's their exact problem.  What if all that 40k stuff just stops working?  What if all the Star Wars stuff does?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 06:09:42 pm
A lot of 40k stuff isin't magic, though. Most guns would work perfectly, so would sublight travel and so on.
Also, according to lore, technically bringing a Wh40k human into Star Wars would kind of open a tunnel between one and another.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Radio Controlled on July 04, 2016, 06:15:16 pm
Quote
It draws from expanded universe of no consistency and it ignores that Star Wars uses the crude application of power while Star Trek is more refined.  A squadron of charging knights on horseback had more kinetic energy then a shot from a MBT.  Maybe we should conclude the knights are more advanced?
What do you mean with 'expanded universe of no consistency' exactly? They cite their sources, which are often official books that are cannon for both universes. Also, they don't make claims about advancedness of things, they just compare their capabilities and derive conclusions from that.

The numbers for Star Wars are so damn high not because their ships are powerful, but because the people who gave those numbers have NO GODDAMN SENSE OF SCALE.
Its clear they just picked the highest number they could pull out of their ass at any given moment.
Oh yeah, it's trivially easy to make it so one side beats another by making up different numbers for an imaginary universe. One could easily write a sci-fi short story where the protagonist race/entity wipes the floor with most other franchises. Even so, the numbers and events the creators gave us are what we have to work with.

Quote
Also the bias is strong as hell.  It claims that the best example of planetary destruction in Star Trek is the die is cast.  How about By Inferno's Light part 2 where there is a plan to blow up an entire solar system.  ::)  So I wouldn't call that much of a credible judge.

Yeah, the way it seems to bash star trek/trekkies is kinda annoying. That said, I looked up the summary of the episode you mentioned (http://memory-alpha.wikia.com/wiki/By_Inferno's_Light_(episode)) and it says the plan was to induce a supernova in the local sun by throwing a ship loaded with some crap into it. That's one way to destroy a planet for sure, but isn't a direct method, and would be unusable in a number of situations (eg. If I remember correctly not all stars are fated to go supernova, our own sun is destined to become a red dwarf instead because it doesn't have the mass required to go supernova). The comparison they were making there (iirc, though it'd be really helpful if you could include links to the pages you refer to so I don't have to search up and down the site) was about the capacity for directly bombarding planets, without using 'external sources'.

Quote
This crude comparisons of numbers reminds me a lot of the people who say that the King Tiger was more advanced then modern MBTs because the armor was thicker and the gun was bigger.  That's not an indication of technology level!  It doesn't matter much that the powerplant on the Star Destroyer shield is bigger then the Enterprise if the enterprise can modulate it's phasers and shoot right through!

Why would modulating their phasers allow to shoot through a star destroyer shield? What does that even really mean? Also, while I'll admit that the comparisons can be crude, being 'more refined' doesn't make something automatically better either, does it? (they address this point here, by the way: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Myths/Myths_Tech.html
Also here: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Myths/Myth_Science.html#WeaponTech)

Also, they also have a page pages on the whole 'modulating phasers and shields' thing: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Myths/Myth_Science.html#Phase-coherence
In general on shields of both franchises: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Shields/index.html

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 04, 2016, 06:27:31 pm
In that first one they point out that the arguments from trekkies are "Federation has tech Wars lacks" and "Federation has tech that beats Wars tech" and then only defends the second point. Once again it deflects away from the issues.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 06:34:33 pm
In that first one they point out that the arguments from trekkies are "Federation has tech Wars lacks" and "Federation has tech that beats Wars tech" and then only defends the second point. Once again it deflects away from the issues.

Because people contest the point.  ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)

What do you mean with 'expanded universe of no consistency' exactly?

We mean that Star Wars cannnon is whatever one of literally thousands of different people pulled out of their ass on a random day.  The numbers vary immensely.  Star Trek isn't perfect but it's more consistent.

If you accept the highball numbers, vast parts of the cannon stop making sense.

The comparison they were making there (iirc, though it'd be really helpful if you could include links to the pages you refer to so I don't have to search up and down the site) was about the capacity for directly bombarding planets, without using 'external sources'.

But no one in Trek would do that.  It's against their sense of self preservation.  It's like talking about how bad modern armies are at cavalry charges.  Then someone brings up tanks and you say "stop changing the subject!"

It's also lowballing what is shown to be possible in Star Trek.  When Sisko is chasing Michael Eddington he poisons several planets, rendering them inhabitable for colonization.  He does this to several planets in a single day without any special preperation.  (Personally I think he would have been court martialed but I guess it's okay if no one is living there.)  So that shows what is possible in Star Trek if they are actually trying to burn the ground.

The obvious conclusion is that in Star Trek inhabited planets have defenses.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Radio Controlled on July 04, 2016, 07:13:35 pm
In that first one they point out that the arguments from trekkies are "Federation has tech Wars lacks" and "Federation has tech that beats Wars tech" and then only defends the second point. Once again it deflects away from the issues.
Are you talking about the first link I posted with 'that first one'?

Do you mean they don't adres the presence of unique ST techs adequately? They do have a page on both 'special' ST and SW techs: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Special/Special1.html and http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Special/Special2.html.
If you meant something else, could you elaborate?

For the record, saying that faction A of universe B could overpower its counterpart from universe C doesn't imply anything about any artistic or entertainment merit of either, and as said it's trivially easy to create a fictional universe that dwarfs a given other universe. So even if one's favored franchise loses, that doesn't really, you know, mean anything substantial (I'd rather have a interesting universe of lower power scales than the opposite). Just wanted to throw that out there.

Quote
We mean that Star Wars cannnon is whatever one of literally thousands of different people pulled out of their ass on a random day.  The numbers vary immensely.  Star Trek isn't perfect but it's more consistent.

If you accept the highball numbers, vast parts of the cannon stop making sense.

Ok, but the arguments they make mostly refer to numbers either derived from observation from events in the movies, or from official Lucasfilm sources.
Also, I believe they adres the problem of different 'levels' of canon here: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Misc/Canon.html
Also this (http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Essays/Analysis.html) and this (http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Misc/Sources_and_Abbreviations.html) page seems relevant when it comes to discussing sources used.

Quote
But no one in Trek would do that.  It's against their sense of self preservation.  It's like talking about how bad modern armies are at cavalry charges.  Then someone brings up tanks and you say "stop changing the subject!"
Again, could you please refer to the exact page you are talking about here? That'd make it easier for me to follow. Still, even if nobody in Trek would do it, that doesn't change things about their capacity for it. It'd also kinda hamper them in a case of total war, if they are unwilling to pursue that option.

Quote
It's also lowballing what is shown to be possible in Star Trek.  When Sisko is chasing Michael Eddington he poisons several planets, rendering them inhabitable for colonization.  He does this to several planets in a single day without any special preperation.  (Personally I think he would have been court martialed but I guess it's okay if no one is living there.)  So that shows what is possible in Star Trek if they are actually trying to burn the ground.
I've seen a little ST in my time, but not nearly all of it. Could you perhaps give me episode titles so I can look them up and see what happened (or rather, check the episode synopsis)? Because I have no idea what the circumstances or scope of these events are right now to be honest. I mean, from looking it up quickly I suspect you are referring to this: http://memory-alpha.wikia.com/wiki/For_the_Uniform_(episode)
Is that correct? Because if yes, it kinda seems they just used good ol' chemical warfare on a bigger scale. We have similar capabilities in real life today, sort of, in the form of cobalt bombs that could make large areas uninhabitable.

Quote
The obvious conclusion is that in Star Trek inhabited planets have defenses.
Do they ever directly refer to these defenses, what they are, what their capabilities are? Or is this only derived from inference? Because I could think of other explanations of why they would refrain from just nuking the shit out of a planet/population.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 07:26:57 pm
I'm sorry, I missed the part in the Star Wars movie where the characters sat around on the bridge discussing the energy output of a star destroyer shield.  I didn't know that we had a familiar cannon to fall back on.

Because that's the kind of conversation that bridge crews have in star trek...  Well not the specs but the capabilities.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 04, 2016, 07:56:54 pm
It's fairly well established that 40k beats Star Wars every time.

Seems like a hard comparison.  Star Wars is Space Opera while 40k is Space Fantasy.  40k it's just magic.  Seems dodgy to say how magic would interact with technology.  In fact that's their exact problem.  What if all that 40k stuff just stops working?  What if all the Star Wars stuff does?
...That's not how you do comparisons. (no offense intended, it's just that 'would one stop working?' makes it pointless to compare in the first place) So, first, Star Wars is Space Fantasy too, with The Force. Second, comparisons like these (afaik) always function with the idea that each universe's technology works fine for them, and where their unique stuff/macguffins interact, they're supposed to translate into the equivalent as closely as possible for effects. Warp Rifts would probably rip Star Wars ships apart as well as they would 40k ships, and Jedi starfighters will be just as skilled in a dogfight against Imperial pilots who don't have the force as they would against any other opponent. 40k has magic interacting with technology a lot more, I'll grant, but from their perspective it's no more magic than hyperspace is for Star Wars. Few people understand the inner workings, and the general education level for 40k and complexity level for technology is a much starker contrasts.

On another note, re: planetary bombardment - If we're talking full-scale wars rather than ship v. ship comparisons (of which I will argue that Imperium>Star Wars>Star Trek, on engagement range alone, before getting to energy levels and specific capabilities of engagement), they are very much a factor. Destroying the enemy's means of production is an important part of attrition warfare. And with FTL travel, supply lines are rather hard to cut off, particularly when Interdictors don't really do anything and you can't generate a Warp Storm on command. Star Wars would suffer the most from that, to be fair, though.

And while I expect inhabited planets to have defenses in Star Trek, Radio has a point in that it is A. an inference and B. doesn't actually tell us anything about how strong they are. Star Wars planets have defenses too. The point of the Death Star was to break through planetary shields and intimidate worlds. Glassing a planet doesn't require much more than a ship with large enough turbolasers and reactors to burn through the atmosphere.

Expanded Universe is great for energy levels. Sorta. Much like 40k, the consistency varies hugely depending on which author/source you're using. Star Trek doesn't have much in the way of that, but they do discuss things on the show(s). (btw, poisoning a planet probably doesn't require much beyond an onboard chemical agent, and with replicators/a devious mind preparing for quite a bit, it really doesn't prove much about ability to poison worlds with existing defenses)

Also, mainiac, this is a thread about fictional universes fighting each other. No need to become hostile
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Max™ on July 04, 2016, 07:57:35 pm
Re: Xeelee/Dalek/Etc discussion.

Shiva (the God) stomps [entire universes, not just the races, the universes themselves], Daleks stomp [anything but Time Lords, particularly ones with plot], Xeelee stomp [anything constrained by physics but Photino birds], then you get down into the usual stuff, Trek, Wars, etc.

Xeelee ships are grown from some nonsense physics violating stuff that came out of a thought experiment "what if you turned off the Pauli Exclusion Principle?" where the answer is basically Adamantine, except black. They're masters of timefuckery (excluding the Blue Children from Manifold: Time) within something resembling plausible physics.

I gimped up a Nightfighter a while back which I'm still proud of.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Now back to your regularly scheduled Trek vs Wars discussion.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 08:02:59 pm
Also, mainiac, this is a thread about fictional universes fighting each other. No need to become hostile

I'm not getting defensive, I'm getting frustrated.  You take something that is blindingly obvious and then people nickle and dime it with a million sidetracks.  It's frustrating.

And frankly when you tell someone they are being defensive YOU are being something a lot worse then defensive.

Look there are basically three propositions here:

1) A star wars ship is larger   <----- This seems reasonable
2) A star wars ship has a higher energy output   <------ This seems to depend entirely on arbitrary selection between different expanded universe crap
3) The Star Wars economy is larger  <------- This takes the stuff from step 2 and then runs it through extrapolation so that the movies are no longer recognizable
4) A star trek ship can accomplish more per joule of energy then a star wars ship   <-------- This is what I've been trying to say seems really blindingly obvious to me
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 04, 2016, 08:12:34 pm
That last doesn't seem that obvious, nor does it seem entirely relevant, though. Do you mean doing a variety of things with that energy, or accomplishing them more efficiently?

Because the first one I can sorta concede, simply because most Star Trek Federation ships are not ships of war (Star Wars does, in fact, have stealth technology, albeit not 'make the ship literally invisible' cloaking (actually I think it might, I'm not so sure on that)). At least officially.

But it's not about sheer energy output, either. 40k wins a lot of things because it's just about as over-the-top as you can get, and they did it intentionally, and they did it in every possible theater. I'm usually arguing against the ludicrous numbers presented for it, but Star Wars still definitely loses to it. Star Trek is a much more peaceful universe, which is I think why most of the time people see it as weaker. I think it's mostly the engagement range and the strike craft that push it into Star Wars favor. Different methods of shielding and the like, too. Complaining about inconsistencies in stats between ships is another thing entirely.

Star Wars ships of equal size to a given Star Trek ship probably have lower energy use/needs. But it's hard to tell, and most Star Wars ships are much bigger, and are going to put out more energy. They're also purpose built for war, in the vast majority of cases.

EDIT: The economy thing is super obvious to me. Everything I've seen from the games and additional canon stuff says that Star Wars is basically over the entire galaxy. Federation isn't. And if you're comparing Star Trek as a whole, then Q and company makes discussion useless and shunts everything up to around 40k because Q may as well be a Chaos God. If you're just doing the stuff that isn't obscene and higher dimension being related, then it becomes about the Borg, not the Federation.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 08:15:06 pm
That last doesn't seem that obvious, nor does it seem entirely relevant, though. Do you mean doing a variety of things with that energy, or accomplishing them more efficiently?

Those posts you thought were me getting defensive were me repeatedly trying to explain this until I got frustrated.

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/GD6qtc2_AQA/maxresdefault.jpg)

 :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 09:03:53 pm
I am now 95% sure you're defensive, frustrated and "salty" about this discussion, tbh.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 09:22:27 pm
Kot, stop acting so jealous.  Just because you feel inadequate doesn't mean you need to act so jealous.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 04, 2016, 09:28:50 pm
Also popping in to say 40k doesn't have magic- it has Space Magic.

When thought about "scientifically", it's people with psychic potential reaching into an alternate dimension where the laws of physics don't apply and siphoning some of that improbability in order to make impossible things manifest in the real world.
With the added addendum that the pocket dimension contains some malevolent and incomprehensably powerful beings which feed and grow in strength from the emotions of all races able to interact with that pocket dimension. Trek, Wars and Gate all have stuff just as weird.

Which makes me wonder why, if Daleks are fair game, we're using the imperium of Man instead of, say... The C'tan and Necrontyr.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 04, 2016, 09:45:20 pm
I mean, Chaos Gods and C'tan are probably all on that same level of 'mindbogglingly, unentertainingly powerful'. So whatevs.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 04, 2016, 09:55:00 pm
Well, I did just google "Xeelee vs C'tan", and found that the Xeelee would almost certainly win, so I think this is the power level we're working at now.

Which would also mean the Star Wars power level would probably be better served by using the old republic, rather than the empire. Y'know, before all that "thousands of years of stagnation".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 10:40:30 pm
I'm unclear on how the old republic was more powerful.  Could you elaborate?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 10:45:00 pm
The C'tan are a strange one because they're the "physical gods" to the Ruinous Powers' "spiritual gods". So, while amazingly powerful, they can be injured or killed far more easily than the Chaos Gods. Even being broken into small shards for over a million years didn't kill them, but that doesn't mean they're immortal.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 04, 2016, 10:53:48 pm
Kot, stop acting so jealous.  Just because you feel inadequate doesn't mean you need to act so jealous.
If anyone here is jealous, it's you, because you're not Polish thus you can't have Winged Hussars. :*


Also, I am pretty sure that Empire was way more powerful. Taking old EU into mind, that means Eclipses, ridiculous amounts of various versions of Death Stars floating around (Lemelisk was a busy man), those things that killed suns and the sheer number of ISDs which are pretty much way better than anything before.
New canon you need to take out a lot of this stuff, and while Starkiller Base technically doesn't count because it's not Empire anymore, I guess they still had a lot of cool stuff.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 10:55:11 pm
If anyone here is jealous, it's you, because you're not Polish thus you can't have Winged Hussars. :*

God dude. CHILL OUT.  It's just a conversation.  Stop acting so angry.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 04, 2016, 10:57:12 pm
mainiac you just hit poe's line. Ceasetime.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 04, 2016, 10:58:02 pm
Gentlemen, you can't season in here! This is the Salt Room!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 10:59:59 pm
mainiac you just hit poe's line. Ceasetime.

Tack, please stop this absolutely unreasonable conversation!  You should know better!

(Seriously though, you were fine when they were doing it and now you want to ride in like a white knight and referee?)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 04, 2016, 11:21:58 pm
In that first one they point out that the arguments from trekkies are "Federation has tech Wars lacks" and "Federation has tech that beats Wars tech" and then only defends the second point. Once again it deflects away from the issues.
Are you talking about the first link I posted with 'that first one'?

Do you mean they don't adres the presence of unique ST techs adequately? They do have a page on both 'special' ST and SW techs: http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Special/Special1.html and http://www.stardestroyer.net/Empire/Tech/Special/Special2.html.
If you meant something else, could you elaborate?

For the record, saying that faction A of universe B could overpower its counterpart from universe C doesn't imply anything about any artistic or entertainment merit of either, and as said it's trivially easy to create a fictional universe that dwarfs a given other universe. So even if one's favored franchise loses, that doesn't really, you know, mean anything substantial (I'd rather have a interesting universe of lower power scales than the opposite). Just wanted to throw that out there.
Ok, started reading that link with federation tech and god its retarded. They actually said that the costs of transmuting energy into different elements wouldn't differ. WE KNOW THIS FROM REAL LIFE PHYSICS HOLY SHIT. Someone never learned about atomic mass. Presumably deuterium and other "rare" elements have a larger number of protons in their atoms, meaning it would take vastly more say hydrogen or whatever to replicate them.
Yet they don't understand an actual fact of physics and translate this into a victory for themselves.
It's hard for me to respect anything this site says after that. Maybe they made good points after that, but I can't bother reading them now.

And no my beef isn't just "MEH I LIKE STAR TREK SO IT HAS TO WIN", I flat out said that Daleks would wipe the floor with them, not because I like Doctor Who more then Trek, but because its patently obvious they have the advantage.
I'm not fighting this so hard because of fandom, I'm fighting it because I honestly feel you're not giving the Federation a fair shake and systematically dismissing evidence to the contrary.

Like mainiac said, I'm not defensive, I'm frustrated. Though I feel he IS getting a bit salty now. Which he isn't the only one, there's plenty of salt from the opposing side, but I'm not going to get upset about that. I'm going to focus on the issue at hand.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 04, 2016, 11:52:17 pm
actually said that the costs of transmuting energy into different elements wouldn't differ. WE KNOW THIS FROM REAL LIFE PHYSICS HOLY SHIT. Someone never learned about atomic mass. Presumably deuterium and other "rare" elements have a larger number of protons in their atoms, meaning it would take vastly more say hydrogen or whatever to replicate them

Plus... replicators dont seem to work that way in the first place.  In Enterprise (a couple years before the Federation was founded), Tucker talks about how the ship is recycling matter.  They turn poop into bulkheads and turn organic matter into meat paste with their protein resequencers.  It seems that the replicator is just the same idea but more advanced.  They are still putting existing matter into the replicators.  Picard doesn't like his tea so he has the replicator dissolve it  Keiko tells Molly to recycle the plates in the replicator after a meal.  Janeway tells Chakotay that he should recycle a fancy watch when they are desperate for energy and it could give them a first aid kit.  (which seems dodgy to me but maybe it was a very energy valuable watch?)  Jadziya Dax's family operates a mine.  Presumably they wouldn't be mining stuff if minerals didn't matter.

But it's not like I did a bunch of math from numbers someone pulled out of their ass so feel free to disregard this.

Like mainiac said, I'm not defensive, I'm frustrated. Though I feel he IS getting a bit salty now.

What I'm salty about is:

1) People are telling me I'm feeling things I'm not
2) People are telling me what to say
3) They are applying a double standard in doing it

It's pretty much a checklist of "things not to do if you want people to feel like you are reasonable".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 05, 2016, 12:21:08 am
Deuterium specifically is an isotope of hydrogen, and exactly one neutron heavier. It's also not especially rare, available in low concentration wherever hydrogen or water are. If the replicators just convert stuff into energy and back again, the only thing that matters is the mass of an object, so a two-ounce gold watch could easily become a two-ounce box of nanitic medical supplies or something.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 05, 2016, 12:40:52 am
TBH, comparing which Sci-Fi universe is better is like comparing whose dick is bigger better (because size is not everything, apparently) except those aren't even your dicks those are just dicks of your favourite male porn stars.
I can only say that God Emperor of Mankind is obviously the most attractive and has the best genitialia, while Star Wars Emperor dick is small and wrinkled just like his whole body... though I understand that it might be hard to choose between God Emperor and Patrick Stewart (or William Shatner, but he's old now too, while God Emperor of Mankind doesn't age), if you're into older guys, but in that case I guess that Star Wars Emperor would be pretty good choice too.

@mainiac
Getting salty over people telling you that you are salty is basically only a confirmation though. The only winning move is not to play.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 05, 2016, 01:27:53 am
mainiac you just hit poe's line. Ceasetime.

Tack, please stop this absolutely unreasonable conversation!  You should know better!

(Seriously though, you were fine when they were doing it and now you want to ride in like a white knight and referee?)
You saying things like that is why I said not to be hostile. I never said defensive, mind. You're just getting worked up in general and it's seeping into all your posts. You're being very aggressive about really little things.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 05, 2016, 01:45:30 am
I'm fine being accused of a double standard, but I don't think I know any y'all well enough for favouritism.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 05, 2016, 02:33:45 am
It's fairly well established that 40k beats Star Wars every time. Star Trek ships are fast and shielded, but they can't really deal with Nova Cannons or swarms upon swarms of strikecraft.
Star Trek ships can fight while in their FTL and perform drive-by shooting (because their go-to weapon, photon torpedoes, are also FTL capable), 40k has zero answers to that outside of Necron stuff.
Also you forgot to put the Culture at the top of the list. Or near it, at least.
Culture is below Xeelee. Very very much below Xeelee. So not quite the top.
If we're talking full-scale wars rather than ship v. ship comparisons (of which I will argue that Imperium>Star Wars>Star Trek, on engagement range alone, before getting to energy levels and specific capabilities of engagement)
Engagement ranges are irrelevant for Star Trek, they have FTL weapon systems which they can fire while also being in FTL mode, same for their sensors. There's a reason why I resorted to super-weapons when arguing for Star Wars - because Star Trek ships absolutely demolish anything Star Wars in normal combat, if they take it seriously.

Now, we still haven't discussed the Halo, Mass Effect, Babylon 5 and Stargate. I propose we change that immediately, and put them into their right places - namely, Halo should be below Star Wars/Star Trek, Mass Effect - above Halo, Stargate - above Mass Effect, and Babylon 5 should be below Xeelee/Culture.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 03:12:16 am
The Imperium of Man would collapse in all these settings for a bunch of reasons:

A) Its tech level is, generally speaking, crappy. They have huge-ass battleship, that use chemical guns. Loaded by crew. Sure, they go to space, but a lot of their weapons tech suddenly seems late 19th century. And they have a lot of ships, sure, but they sucks so much they're going to get mowed down like zulus facing a Maxim.

B) It cannot use its human wave tactic in space easily. The Imperium doesn't have the STCs for all ships, and doesn't have the high tech manufacturing capability to produce lots of them. Especially if they need to produce more ships than the enemy produce missiles (see 1).

C) The Empire is largely holding out because all its enemies are bunch of disgusting Xenos. If you're a governor of some backass world faced with an Ork or Tyranid invasion, your choices are fight and win or die. If you're face by a relatively humane human regime, which will let you have your planetary autonomy and stop sacrificing your citizens to the Emperor, you're much more likely to surrender. Hell, I'd expect half of the Empire to be in various kind of rebellions after a couple years of fight against Star Wars/ Star Trek/ Honorverse / Most of the other.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 05, 2016, 03:23:35 am
A) Macro Cannons are massive gravitic railguns. Exact method of firing depends on pattern. Their shells are explosive, and from the novels, apparently are meant to try and explode in the vicinity of the enemy, rather than get a direct hit, which is hard to do from hundreds of thousands of kilometers away. A volley from a Retribution battelship is supposed to be able to literally blow up a planet if it lacks shielding. Furthermore, their ships are extremely tough, actually. Like, armor which is said to be hundreds of meters thick.

B)...Not for all ships, no, but for far and away enough of them, and they have Forge Worlds. Planets dedicated to pumping out equipment, including warships. Hell, Lunar-class Cruisers can be built on most Imperial Worlds, Forge or no.

C) The posterchild for what you're talking about are the Tau. And it's quite evident that centuries of hatred, devotion, and xenophobia are not something overturned by a kind word and an offer of humane treatment. Sure, it helps, but it takes work in the background, and it's only really relevant once you reach the ground battles. Imperial worlds actually have a lot of autonomy, and most happen to like their religion. The reason for the incredible scrutiny is because the Imperium is bugfuck paranoid about anyone not worshipping the Emperor and therefore being more likely to be an agent of Chaos.

Imperium of Man might collapse, but if it did, it would collapse onto the natives of the setting and crush them before dying under it's own weight without foes on all side to keep it's bloat supported.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 03:35:42 am
Regarding C) The Tau are Xeno, and thousands of years of xenophobia aren't set aside easily. But do not that I said Human and Humane. Most of the settings we've discussed are human-dominated.

As for macro cannons, I've seen a range of 40 km on the lexicanum. That's not going to help you much.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 05, 2016, 05:19:47 am
@mainiac
Getting salty over people telling you that you are salty is basically only a confirmation though. The only winning move is not to play.

Okay now I'm genuinely curious.  See, I just listed three behaviors you can use to antagonize people.  You respond to that list by doing all three things in a single post.  What are you trying to accomplish with this?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 05:54:02 am
To be fair Mainiac, you may not realize it, but as a third party I can confirm: a lot of your posts do come out as aggressive, even if your subsequent posts make clear you didn't think they were aggressive, which cause people to then aggravate you. I think it's something in the way your posts are written, and something I've observed across a bunch of topics.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Max™ on July 05, 2016, 06:04:47 am
Culture is below Xeelee. Very very much below Xeelee. So not quite the top.
Ehhh.

The Culture in "peaceful non-scary benevolent ubertech group" mode would only have difficulties with the Xeelee use of tactical time loops/retrocausal computation.

Gridfire is every bit as terrifying as a Starbreaker, and of course we're probably assuming that the Xeelee didn't show up in the new universe, set up an anti-history loop to insert themselves at the beginning of time so they already have all the tech and science and everything figured out, right?

The few times the Exultant group really got clean wins was when they were able to pull shit literally out of nowhere (like the Alcubierre shielding trick) and Gridfire is like the ultimate "fuck that guy, and everyone around them, and good luck hitting me back because I'm behind 7 proxies light years away" toy.

A GSV or ROU or whatnot isn't as fast as a Nightfighter going flat out, but they have "reach out and fuck your shit up" capabilities way beyond anything outside of some Ghost fuckery turned up to 11.

Probably wouldn't get much luck trying to effectorize a Xeelee, but simply bathing them in Gridfire and zooped in CAM munitions until it falls apart is gonna be a heck of a thing to fight against.

The Photino Birds made use of the whole "we can hit you but you can't hit us as well" thing with gravity based weapons, dark matter kinetic strikes, and "unbelievable sorts of weaponry" only hinted at in universe.

Full out the Xeelee as a whole decide to stomp the Culture's shit in, shit is getting stomped in, but in a typical sort of engagement where the Xeelee try to swat away an annoying insect? I'd expect the Anti-Xeelee would have to take note and not be quite as amused as it usually seems.

Though last time I was in a discussion where those two got brought up, a wildcard ended up getting brought in: The Shrike.

Which led to various discussions over how the Shrike is way faster on the spot, but not actually faster over a long distance, so it could probably evade a Nightfighter up close, but never quite get entirely away, leading to one of my favorite forum quotes ever.

"So Yakety Sax. With intermittent supernovas." ~alguLoD
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 06:48:42 am
Deuterium specifically is an isotope of hydrogen, and exactly one neutron heavier. It's also not especially rare, available in low concentration wherever hydrogen or water are. If the replicators just convert stuff into energy and back again, the only thing that matters is the mass of an object, so a two-ounce gold watch could easily become a two-ounce box of nanitic medical supplies or something.
Well then Deuterium is a very weird example then and I have no idea why its considered rare.

As for the "the only thing that matters is the mass of an object" no. What matters is the ATOMIC mass of an object. Basically how many protons are in its atom.
So you could convert lead (82 protons) to gold (79 protons) at a somewhat decent exchange rate, but converting oxygen (8 protons) into gold would quickly deplete the atmosphere.
This also explains why that watch would be energy rich, since it was gold and gold is one of the decently high massed elements.
Meanwhile most foodstuffs are made of carbon which has only 6 protons and is thus easy to make lots of.
So basically people mine things because metals and such tend to have higher atomic mass and thus make buttloads of food.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 06:56:57 am
That's dumb. The mass of an object is a product of the number of atoms and the mass of the atoms. A kilo of watch will have roughly the same number of proton and neutron than a kilo of water. It'll just be denser, so take less room.

I'm not sure why you're only talking protons and not neutron though. If there is a reason for that, then a kilo of oxygen would be better than a kilo of gold. Water has 8 protons and 8 neutrons. Gold has 79 protons, but 118 neutrons, so if you're interested in proton only (discouting the mass of electrions), water is 50% proton, hydrogen is even better at 100% proton (not counting deuterium). Gold is only 40% protons.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 07:06:17 am
Ok well yeah that's density. Its easier to fit a handful of lead into a replicator then to compress a whole roomful of oxygen into it :P

As for why no neutrons because they have little to do with the actual element, and more to do with isotopes. They're kinda secondary to Protons in this context.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 05, 2016, 07:17:29 am
Is atomic mass really all there is to energy? I thought there was more.

Also the recycling might not be atomic at all. We don't necessarily know.

think it's something in the way your posts are written, and something I've observed across a bunch of topics.

Okay but where is this concern for other people. Tack was complaining about me telling them how they felt but said nothing when they continued to do so even after his white knight referee move.

I would be a lot more sympathetic to these complaints if I had ever once seen them applied to anyone else.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 07:24:16 am
Again, I don't know, but most of the time their post don't feel as aggressive as yours.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 05, 2016, 08:04:47 am
'The Referee' and 'The White Knight' are two different forum personalities. Please don't apply both to me. I am gallant for no man, I just dislike when the discussion is sidetracked by you being shit.
BFEL may have been getting passionate, but at least he was on topic about it.
If anyone here is jealous, it's you, because you're not Polish thus you can't have Winged Hussars. :*
That was funny.
God dude. CHILL OUT.  It's just a conversation.  Stop acting so angry.
That was where you came against poe's law. Kot, I knew was shitposting. I've given him crap about it in other threads. No, I'm not going to link them to soothe your battered ego.

Ever heard the saying something like "If someone has a problem with you, it's them; if many people have a problem with you, it's you"?
As has been said by two others, something about the way you've been posting makes you seem either really worked up, or rather bad at conveying humour through text.
Believe me when I say I'm trying to be helpful, so I'd really prefer we get the thread back on the rails, like I was trying to achieve with my first post before I ended up just being pulled into this mess.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 08:26:40 am
No, I'm not going to link them to soothe your battered ego.
This kinda thing is probably why he was getting so salty Tack. There's some definite back and forth going on here. Just pointing this out so mainiac doesn't have to later.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 05, 2016, 08:28:31 am
That is literally the exact double standard I was talking about.

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 05, 2016, 08:57:03 am
True, it didn't need saying. My apologies. I tend to get dickish when I'm trying to give advice- offsets my fear of being helpful.
Whether or not the pertinent, non-dickish part of that advice will be taken heed of, I hope to find out.

As for double standard- it's possible, although certainly unconsciously happening. But it's less likely that I, RPGeek and Sheb all have a hidden bias towards all of the people you were arguing with.
It's more likely that you've taken it too far.

On the note of 'taken it too far', can we move this to PM's or something?
Because an awesome discussion is happening and I want to follow it and also probably necro the one about the pikes and the crossbows.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 05, 2016, 09:58:25 am
Regarding C) The Tau are Xeno, and thousands of years of xenophobia aren't set aside easily. But do not that I said Human and Humane. Most of the settings we've discussed are human-dominated.

As for macro cannons, I've seen a range of 40 km on the lexicanum. That's not going to help you much.
You' re mixing up ground based and space based macro cannons. Which is okay, they're easy to confuse because they have the same bloody name. But BFG and a wealth of Black Library novels confirm the range.

And Chaos is often human too, and they're going to be at least as tempting as the Federation or Empire, and the Imperium hasn't fallen yet.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 05, 2016, 11:47:05 am
Deuterium specifically is an isotope of hydrogen, and exactly one neutron heavier. It's also not especially rare, available in low concentration wherever hydrogen or water are. If the replicators just convert stuff into energy and back again, the only thing that matters is the mass of an object, so a two-ounce gold watch could easily become a two-ounce box of nanitic medical supplies or something.
Well then Deuterium is a very weird example then and I have no idea why its considered rare.

As for the "the only thing that matters is the mass of an object" no. What matters is the ATOMIC mass of an object. Basically how many protons are in its atom.
So you could convert lead (82 protons) to gold (79 protons) at a somewhat decent exchange rate, but converting oxygen (8 protons) into gold would quickly deplete the atmosphere.
This also explains why that watch would be energy rich, since it was gold and gold is one of the decently high massed elements.
Meanwhile most foodstuffs are made of carbon which has only 6 protons and is thus easy to make lots of.
So basically people mine things because metals and such tend to have higher atomic mass and thus make buttloads of food.

Exactly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 12:05:36 pm
Tack, no need to insult mainiac either. Alao, if you want to take it to PMs, you could, you know, PM him instead of berating him here....

Where can i find info on spaceborne macro cannons?

Also, given that ramming is a viable tactic in BFG, thats a sign the imperium lack range.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 05, 2016, 12:31:02 pm
But it's less likely that I, RPGeek and Sheb all have a hidden bias towards all of the people you were arguing with.

I have no beef with Sheb.

I appreciate you coming out against dickishness though.  My honor is satisfied, there is no need for a duel.

Also, given that ramming is a viable tactic in BFG, thats a sign the imperium lack range.

Ramming is such an iconic tactic that it shows up pretty much everywhere.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 05, 2016, 12:42:46 pm
Then I too shall cease my quiet seething at being called a white knight.
Edit: ... But now a duel sounds awesome cool.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 01:14:58 pm
Crossbows are not a replacement for 15th century firearms. Firearms have similar reload times, better stopping power, and a massive psychological effect on the enemy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 01:22:45 pm
Do they have more of an effect on enemies that are familier with them? Frightening Aztec I get, but European soldiers?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 05, 2016, 01:24:09 pm
Probably would frighten the unfamiliar less, honestly. The Aztecs went around with their crazy Death Whistles, which were loud but harmless. It's only once you've seen what a gun can do to someone that the fear sets in beyond "loud noise".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 05, 2016, 01:30:05 pm
Shock effect is always a significant force multiplier and a volley of gunfire is a pretty great way to do that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 01:38:24 pm
Yeah, post-calibre firearms are pretty much just better (hence crossbows not seeing much use on the modern field of battle). Pre-calibre it's a little stickier, because either reloading or ammunition manufacture becomes more complicated.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 05, 2016, 01:42:54 pm
UMP Cruiser versus Serenity?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 05, 2016, 01:44:03 pm
A) Its tech level is, generally speaking, crappy. They have huge-ass battleship, that use chemical guns. Loaded by crew. Sure, they go to space, but a lot of their weapons tech suddenly seems late 19th century. And they have a lot of ships, sure, but they sucks so much they're going to get mowed down like zulus facing a Maxim.
They also have Lances which are supersized Lasers, Plasma Macrocannons (kinda like Star Wars blasters but better), and their torpedoes can cause massive warp rifts capable of sucking half of battleship in. There are also Nova Cannons which accelerates a huge projectile at fraction of speed of light (which is apparently fast enough to travel "tens of thousands of kilometers" in a "fraction of second"... fucking fractions, but I am in fact pretty sure that Imperium doesn't lack range) which then explodes at predetermined distance... and it's apparently capable of causing a "blast zone the size of a small planet", which I am sceptical of, but it's proven that it's completly capable of completly destroying a cruiser which is around 5-6 kilometers in Warhammer 40k terms.
B) It cannot use its human wave tactic in space easily. The Imperium doesn't have the STCs for all ships, and doesn't have the high tech manufacturing capability to produce lots of them. Especially if they need to produce more ships than the enemy produce missiles (see 1).
Except they can. Places like Port Maw and Mars shit out starships at daily rate and the only reason they never have enough of them is because they keep utilizing starship wave tactics. Agreed, they lost a bunch of STCs for their stuff so a lot of versions are rare special snowflakes, but they have enough "regular" STCs to make ships out of.
And that's forgetting the fact that when it comes to making ships, Mechanicus are way more likely to actually modify shit and make new versions.
C) The Empire is largely holding out because all its enemies are bunch of disgusting Xenos. If you're a governor of some backass world faced with an Ork or Tyranid invasion, your choices are fight and win or die. If you're face by a relatively humane human regime, which will let you have your planetary autonomy and stop sacrificing your citizens to the Emperor, you're much more likely to surrender. Hell, I'd expect half of the Empire to be in various kind of rebellions after a couple years of fight against Star Wars/ Star Trek/ Honorverse / Most of the other.
There were factions who acted like your regular Star Wars/Star Trek/Honorverse/Whatever guys, with being happy utopian shits. Half of Great Crusade and things like Macharian Crusade is about Imperium bashing some happy hippie shits who though they can be less Grimdark and most of people from Imperial side didin't even think about that it would be better life, and those who did were usually way too devoted anyways. Your life may be better, but Imperium has thousands of years of indoctrination...
Not to mention that bulk of people don't actually live anywhere close to bad conditions, the healthcare is fucking great, technology is better than it is now and while you have to work on a farm or in a factory for your whole life and Imperium will take half of what you make while the Planetary Governor will take the rest, and you could get conscripted and send to other side of Galaxy to die in war against some horrible xenos and there is a priest with huge sword that makes you pray to the Emperor, but as long as you play by the rules it's not that bad.
Shame if you're a free thinker, though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 05, 2016, 01:51:15 pm
So before the invention of guns, are pikes still the game-winner of the battlefield?
I imagine in forester areas you'd prefer the better skirmishing potential of the Romans, but on plains I'm assuming it's a non-contest.


Also the stuff I've heard about a thicket of upraised spears being partial cover against arrows... Malarkey, or plausible?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 02:02:22 pm
Do they have more of an effect on enemies that are familiar with them? Frightening Aztec I get, but European soldiers?
Yes, being shot at is still scary even if you know how guns work. Maybe ESPECIALLY if you know how guns work, because you're highly aware of what the enemy is doing and oh god they just finished reloading... *bang* *wince* Oh I'm alive! Better shoot back.

Combat is extremely, EXTREMELY STRESSFUL. Men often simply loaded their muskets without firing them in order to please their officers. Once you're on the line, the individual man begins to feel alone, and becomes concerned only with the safety of his own life.

Quote from: http://www.napolun.com/mirror/napoleonistyka.atspace.com/infantry_tactics_2.htm#infantrycombatmuskets2
Von Angeli described the fight for Baumersdorf in 1809 between the Austrians and the French 57th Line Regiment: "One exchanged musketry at very close range. The enormous din, as wave upon wave of musketry constantly erupted ...is completely beyond the imagination. Evrything, even the thunder of the numerous cannon, seemed insignificant amid the raging storm of the so-called smallarms."

Not related to musket combat but relevant:
Quote
During WW2 approx. 500.000 men were discharged from USA Army for psychiatric reasons. This is said that 101 psychiatric casualties per 1.000 men per year were recorded in the First Army (USA) in Europe. Source: Kellet - "Combat motivation" p 272

The importance of getting the first volley and making it as effective as possible has been reinforced over and over. The reason you hear of this is because in practice it was so damaging to the enemy that often engagements were over within a single volley.

Quote from: http://www.napolun.com/mirror/napoleonistyka.atspace.com/infantry_tactics_2.htm#infantrycombatmuskets2
Sergeant Wheeler of the British 51st Regiment of Foot at Waterloo: "There were nearly a hundred of them, all cuirassiers. ... We saw them coming and were prepared, we opened our fire, the work was done in an instant. ... One other was saved by Cpt. Ross from being put to death by some of the Brunswickers."

Cpt. Ross: "There were 12 horses and 8 cuirassiers killed on this occassion..." The remainder were dispersed.

So before the invention of guns, are pikes still the game-winner of the battlefield?
I imagine in forester areas you'd prefer the better skirmishing potential of the Romans, but on plains I'm assuming it's a non-contest.

Also the stuff I've heard about a thicket of upraised spears being partial cover against arrows... Malarkey, or plausible?
Any kind of spear is your go-to weapon for any era up until the 18th century when firearms really began dominating the battlefield. They're simply excellent weapons for being cheap and easy to use. A peasant will be much happier with a spear to keep his enemy at a distance than with a sword, which is a much more personal weapon.

Arrows could be deflected but there's still plenty chance they could hit someone and hurt them even after they've bounced off a spear shaft. Don't leave your shields and gambesons at home.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 05, 2016, 02:07:42 pm
So before the invention of guns, are pikes still the game-winner of the battlefield?
I imagine in forester areas you'd prefer the better skirmishing potential of the Romans, but on plains I'm assuming it's a non-contest.


Also the stuff I've heard about a thicket of upraised spears being partial cover against arrows... Malarkey, or plausible?

The warhammer of course, havent you played DF?

Armored cavalry often decided battles, pikes, pole arms, bow and crossbow for infantry worked well for decades. Combined arms. Many armies in Europe used pikes to protect muskets all the way to early 18th century.


Do they have more of an effect on enemies that are familiar with them? Frightening Aztec I get, but European soldiers?
Yes, being shot at is still scary even if you know how guns work. Maybe ESPECIALLY if you know how guns work, because you're highly aware of what the enemy is doing and oh god they just finished reloading... *bang* *wince* Oh I'm alive! Better shoot back.

Combat is extremely, EXTREMELY STRESSFUL. Men often simply loaded their muskets without firing them in order to please their officers. Once you're on the line, the individual man begins to feel alone, and becomes concerned only with the safety of his own life.

Yeah I think even in WW2 the estimated figure for US troops who didnt shoot or wouldnt aim at all was around 50%. That improved a lot in the following decades by refining training.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 05, 2016, 02:08:07 pm
Yeah, post-calibre firearms are pretty much just better (hence crossbows not seeing much use on the modern field of battle). Pre-calibre it's a little stickier, because either reloading or ammunition manufacture becomes more complicated.
My apologies, but I'm slightly puzzled by one thing.  What do you mean by "post-calibre"?  Is calibre not simply a measurement of the internal diameter of the barrel?  Are you referring to standardization of calibers in gun design? 

But, one fun fact: one of the advantages of early firearms was that ammunition was simple as all get-out compared to the alternatives.  You could literally load rocks into some early cannons, and musket balls were literally just a round ball of lead.  You didn't even need to get the size all that close to the actual caliber of the gun, as long as you were close enough that it would drop into the barrel during loading.  Contrast this with arrows or bolts, the former of which in particular required a proper expert fletcher.  Gunpowder was more expensive, but still could be mixed up in bulk at a specialized mill; the rise of the arquebus is tied not only to metallurgy and refinements in design, and not only its effectiveness, but also the ability to churn out corned gunpowder (for those readers following along, gunpowder mixed in a liquid to avoid explosions which resulted in a paste called mill cakes, then reduced to pellets called corns by analogy to cereal crops) like...err, hotcakes.  Bullets don't really start to resemble those of the modern day even in shape alone until the 19th century, the Minié being the most famous, as far as I'm aware from my admittedly quite limited knowledge. 

EDIT: Trimmed a bit at the top, leaving only my question to Arx.

That said, regarding pikes as top dog, don't underestimate cavalry on the battlefield.  Heavy cavalry would rip apart unprotected soldiers or formations that weren't in order (people always cite Agincourt or more rarely the Golden Spurs, but never Patay, and before they adapted, knights in the Western European tradition proved devastating in the Levant - when it reached the battlefield - where tradition favored light cavalry in a secondary role).  Light cavalry were your eyes and ears on the battlefield, as well as skirmishers to harass the foe.  Once you routed an enemy, too, cavalry was your key instrument to make sure they didn't simply reform ranks an hour or two down the road, as its superior mobility allowed you to run down foot soldiers.  Spears in good order could stop a cavalry charge cold, but all too often, the point of the heavy cavalry was combined arms - other forces, such as other foot soldiers or archers, were utilized to disrupt the enemy's formation, then cavalry exploited the gap.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 02:10:19 pm
Sure, but, would the psychological effect of early firearms be be that much stronger than with bows/crossbows?

Also, another questions: would medieval bowmen fire volleys as seen in every fantsy movie ever, or just shoot as fast as they can?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 05, 2016, 02:13:28 pm
Not related to musket combat but relevant:
Quote
During WW2 approx. 500.000 men were discharged from USA Army for psychiatric reasons. This is said that 101 psychiatric casualties per 1.000 men per year were recorded in the First Army (USA) in Europe. Source: Kellet - "Combat motivation" p 272

To put that in context, only about 900,000 men served in frontline combat units (i.e. rifle companies not artillery companies).  After 30 days of combat almost any soldier would be too worn out to fight.

The Germans had a similar practice (rotating the exhausted men to non combat roles for the rest of the war).  I dont know about the other Europeans but I bet they did.  The Japanese used some really fucked up public executions to try to desensitize their soldiers to violence and make them immune.

Sure, but, would the psychological effect of early firearms be be that much stronger than with bows/crossbows?

It probably wouldn't matter, most soldiers wouldn't face death enough time to become psychological casualties until industrial gunpowder.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 02:13:30 pm
Yeah, post-calibre firearms are pretty much just better (hence crossbows not seeing much use on the modern field of battle). Pre-calibre it's a little stickier, because either reloading or ammunition manufacture becomes more complicated.
My apologies, but I'm slightly puzzled by one thing.  What do you mean by "post-calibre"?  Is calibre not simply a measurement of the internal diameter of the barrel?  Are you referring to standardization of calibers in gun design? 

At some point, a gun referred to as the caliver was developed/the arquebus was refined into the caliver. And yep, it had a standard calibre, hence the name.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 02:20:30 pm
Sure, but, would the psychological effect of early firearms be be that much stronger than with bows/crossbows?

Also, another questions: would medieval bowmen fire volleys as seen in every fantsy movie ever, or just shoot as fast as they can?
Didn't I just answer this question? Guns have a much stronger psychological effect because of the noise they make. It's well established how utterly nerve wracking the sound of artillery and gunfire is. Part of the reason volley fire was so common is because a rank of 100 people firing all at the same time is much louder than 100 people firing as fast as they can.

They did fire in volleys. Again, a hundred arrows peppering your formation at the same time has a much more noticeable effect. 1 man falling here or there is not going to cause the enemy's formation to break. 20 or 30 falling in seconds is going to make people reconsider their options. It's always been more about letting the enemy know that they're in danger than actually killing them, in order to encourage them to flee. Most battles ended with the opposing army breaking and running, or if they were encircled, surrendering. It's very rare that people fight to the last man.

People don't want to die. All land warfare is based on exploiting the knowledge that your enemy does not want to die.

Edit:
The other thing I want to stress is that there is always a reason why people did things the way they did at the time. Fighting with muskets by formation was done for a reason. I think everyone here, by now, understands why people stood in lines and shot at each other for hundreds of years, and it was because it was the most effective way of fighting at the time, while keeping in mind that there is always another reform on the horizon.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on July 05, 2016, 02:35:12 pm
@Culise

I'd say it was more that switching to firearms meant shifting most of the investment into the equipment side of things, compared to the previous stuff which was simpler to make but required a lot more training and knowledge to use properly. And replacing equipment is much cheaper and quicker on the whole when compared to a soldier. Also losing a guy doesn't mean losing the bigger part of the unit, as in, you just pick the gun up and give it to someone else with not much loss in the quality of soldier, not something that can be said about the bow and arrow (less so about the crossbow because it's kind of an intermediate step between the two).

Also about the point Gunin is making, Lindybeige (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDNyU1TQUXg) has a video somewhat related to that, mostly in how battle fatigue is a rather new concept when it comes to wars, partly because of the introduction of firearms (and in part due to the change in society and general value of human life).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 05, 2016, 02:45:40 pm
Theres also the thing that using the long musket, that may have a bayonet too, takes quite a lot of space within a tight formation, and it is quickest to reload when standing. Its also slow to reload while moving. For the firepower and cohesion of the formation(against charges and cavalry) it was best to fire a volley and let the first row run to the rear to reload or let back rows overtake the ones that shot. Infantry formations could take a lot of space, the more muskets and bayonets per unit of line width the better. Fights between formations were often concluded in a bayonet charge after one or two volleys, and cavalry charges remained very lethal up to late 19th century, so formations remained very relevant.

What finally killed colorful uniforms and funny hats were the combination of rifling, the cartridge and and magazine which resulted in the repeating rifle; massive increase of firepower and its reach for every infantryman. In the 1860s, before smokeless powder or jacketed bullets even.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 02:54:03 pm
Also about the point Gunin is making, Lindybeige (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDNyU1TQUXg) has a video somewhat related to that, mostly in how battle fatigue is a rather new concept when it comes to wars, partly because of the introduction of firearms (and in part due to the change in society and general value of human life).
Yes. I was thinking of exactly that video while I was writing that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 02:57:43 pm
Erkki: My understanding is that bayonet charge where few, soldiers peppering each other for a relatively long time was common.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 02:59:52 pm
Gunin: I doubt archers would generally have shot in volleys. To open, certainly, but thereafter archers shoot fast enough that it's still scary to just keep going, and it puts out more arrows. Also, when one of the Nassaus (forget which) devised volley fire, he thought it was brilliant, implying it wasn't much of a thing for crossbowmen. And if crossbows didn't, archers almost certainly didn't.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 05, 2016, 03:03:18 pm
Where can i find info on spaceborne macro cannons?

Also, given that ramming is a viable tactic in BFG, thats a sign the imperium lack range.
BFG sourcebook is your best bet, being free online at this point, given how long ago GW discontinued it.

And really, it isn't. It's more a sign of relative range, compared to speed, armor, and firepower. 40k ships are stupidly tough. As in, I think it is actually stupid, how tough they're described as. The Void Shields on the Retribution are supposed to be able to absorb the mass-energy of the Earth before failing. I always mentally tone down 40k statistics, since GW has said that all canon/lore is in-universe propaganda or writing of one sort of another. Even if it's just Craftworld Eldar scholars who decided they wanted to document what was happening and put it in the Black Library.

Still. The hugely long reload rates necessitated by having a crew reload massive shells in cannons that basically need to be inspected after every shot, which is in turn required by armor constructed of pure depleted plot-onium, and speeds high enough to close those gaps...

And while yes, xenophobia is a big factor, I feel like the bigger one that would cause difficulty is just making contact with the citizenry in that way. You have to have control of the orbit and launch war amounts to an invasion, first. Abominable Intelligence Droids are another matter that did create hatred, as would any sign of xenos crew among the Federation.

I have to say that I got a different impression about the Great Crusade and healthcare system in 40k than Kot did though.

It'll be fun to join in the firearms discussion later though. :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 05, 2016, 03:07:04 pm
Erkki: My understanding is that bayonet charge where few, soldiers peppering each other for a relatively long time was common.

Yeah, usually the musket volleys were decisive, and the losers were then driven away or chased/finished off with bayonets. Bayonet charges happened often, but bayonet vs. bayonet combat was very rare.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 03:10:58 pm
Gunin: I doubt archers would generally have shot in volleys. To open, certainly, but thereafter archers shoot fast enough that it's still scary to just keep going, and it puts out more arrows.

Also, when one of the Nassaus (forget which) devised volley fire, he thought it was brilliant, implying it wasn't much of a thing for crossbowmen. And if crossbows didn't, archers almost certainly didn't.
Arrows are expensive, and archers did not carry enough arrows with them into battle for individual rate of fire to matter much at all, so no, whenever possible archers would fire in volleys. The only exception I could imagine would be in a siege, but even then the value of a volley cannot be understated.

I don't know of any accurate numbers on Agincourt but I've heard numbers anywhere from 20 to 60 arrows per man.

Here's an excerpt from a Byzantine treatise on warfare:
Quote
The baggage animals must follow behind the rear ranks of the infantry, carrying the Imperial arrows of each infantry division, 15,000, so as to provide each set of three-hundred bowmen with fifty arrows each apart from their own quivers. It is up to the chiliarch to count them out beforehand and bind together each bundle of fifty, then put them away in their designated containers, either boxes or casks.

-- Praecepta Militaria, On Infantry

Volley fire was "invented" multiple times throughout history. Volley fire was employed at Agincourt in the 1400s, for example, so Maurice of Nassau cannot be said to have been the idea's originator, nor can it be held as proof that it was never employed with crossbows just because a chap in the 1600s pioneered it's use with muskets.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 03:18:32 pm
I detest citing reddit, but reddit cites a source:

Quote from: https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/1e7xa3/how_expensive_were_arrows_and_how_many_did_your/
Agincourt: Henry V and the Battle That Made England has a wonderful summary of exactly the question you're asking. When Henry V succeeded the throne, he immediately began restocking the royal armoury in the Tower of London for a foray into France. He set the fletchers of England to begin making arrows, and we have a record of a contract for 12,000 arrows that cost the Crown £37, 10s, which translates to about $25,000. Arrows were produced in sheaves of 24, and archers carried between 60-75 with them into battle. They were expected to be able to shoot about 12-20 arrows per minute (An archer who could shoot no more than 10 arrows per minute was considered to be unfit for military service. Each archer carried two sheaves of arrows in his quiver and the rest stuck in his belt for quick and easy access, though he may have stuck them in the ground when he was entrenched in a position (say, Agincourt.) Each archer could therefore only shoot for about 3.5-7 minutes with the arrows he had (which is NOTHING in a battle. Seriously, 5 minutes of shooting and you're outta ammo? That's crazy.), so there were wagons that were also filled with arrows, and young boys provided a constant transport of arrows from those wagons to the front lines.

I'm not sure you're fully appreciating the nature of archery back then.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 03:21:26 pm
I'm not sure what you mean. I did say that they didn't carry many arrows, and that post proves my point exactly. I'm contending that firing at will doesn't save you any time if the troops are properly drilled.

Can you prove that they fired at will and not in volleys?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 03:30:35 pm
I'm not sure what you mean. I did say that they didn't carry many arrows, and that post proves my point exactly. I'm contending that firing at will doesn't save you any time if the troops are properly drilled.

Can you prove that they fired at will and not in volleys?

No. And that's not a particularly helpful comment, since you can't prove the converse.

However, if the speeds were as disparate as claimed, volleys would reduce the number of arrows shot by something like forty percent, because you have to go at the speed of the slowest. Whether that makes a difference depends entirely on the speed of the supply line, so the answer becomes the one that comes up most of the time in AGG: situational. With arrows easily available, I doubt they'd bother with volleys. If they were less available, they probably would use volleys.

It would also be dependent on terrain. Agincourt was a pitched battle, which wouldn't necessarily have been the most common form.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 03:34:05 pm
No. And that's not a particularly helpful comment, since you can't prove the converse.
Fair enough.

The advantages of volley fire outweigh any advantage you might gain in rate of fire. Men firing as they wish are going to be inaccurate. With peer pressure and direction from officers you can make everyone hit the same spot. Why trust individuals to judge their shots when you can control their fire to ensure that everyone hits the advancing enemy? There is also this impression that volley fire is somehow significantly slower than firing at will. If anything everyone will be faster by proceeding in a coordinated and instinctive manner, doing as they have been trained rather than being under pressure to make difficult decisions on their own.

Men were drilled because they needed to do as ordered, it was the officers who needed to be able to think independently. Allowing individual decision-making might increase rate of fire for the more skilled, confident, and independently-minded individuals, but for others it would slow their rate of fire to below average or make them so inaccurate as to be useless, or reducing the effectiveness of the fire while increasing its volume. The structure of armies for all time has always revolved around lowering the total amount of decisions that need to be made.

My point is that a higher rate of fire does not necessarily lead to more effective fire.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 03:37:20 pm
So back to the Trek/Star Wars thing.

I'll set up a bit of a review.

1. Galactic Empire owns an entire galaxy, Federation has about a fourth of one. Point Empire here.
2. Galactic Empire is apparently faster at FTL because they have an entire galaxy and can make it across in weeks. Another point Empire.
3. Economy. While Empire has more worlds, and thus more total resources, I tried (and possibly failed) to make the point that their industrial techniques don't seem to be as advanced as Federations. So I feel that while they have "more" resources, they might not have ACCESS to said resources, whereas Feds get full use out of what they have. Debate is still needed.
4. Shields...are kinda still up for debate I think? Empire DOES have shields, though it's a bit confusing because they only started showing up in the prequels. But I don't think we ever really answered the shield modulation thing to satisfaction. If phasers can just go right through it would be point Federation, if not I don't think either side gets a point.

I..think that is as far as we got in debate before everything got personal and such. Still a BUTTLOAD more crap to debate on after those, so while Empire is ahead 2 points I'm far from giving up my position. Oh.

5. My point that the Federation has more varied battle experience. They've fought many different types of enemies using different tech whereas the Empire and well...the whole Star Wars universe is basically the same war over and over. There is no significant difference between the battles of the Old Republic era and the battles of the Galactic Empire era. And I suspect there is similar lack of divergence all the way back to the Great Hyperspace Wars.
In short, I feel the Federation will be better equipped to adapt to changing battle strategy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 05, 2016, 03:41:22 pm
Star Wars strategies haven't changed because they've found what works. For them, at any rate. But stuff was still and is still being developed. Differences are more subtle, like cruise missiles vs. carriers or battlecruisers vs. dreadnoughts, but they're still there.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 03:42:28 pm
With peer pressure and direction from officers you can make everyone hit the same spot. Why trust individuals to judge their shots when you can control their fire to ensure that everyone hits the advancing enemy?

This doesn't make sense to me. If the archers aren't shooting at the enemies, your problem isn't going to be solved by volleys. If your officers are trying to pick out specific targets between volleys, you're likely wasting a lot of time. You can shout back, forward, left or right during continuous shooting as well as with volleys, I would think.

Men were drilled because they needed to do as ordered, it was the officers who needed to be able to think independently. Allowing individual decision-making might increase rate of fire for the more skilled individuals, but for others it would slow their rate of fire to below average or make them so inaccurate as to be useless, or reducing the effectiveness of the fire while increasing its volume. The structure of armies for all time has always revolved around lowering the total amount of decisions that need to be made.

Shooting at will doesn't involve decisions, though. You're not trying to choose targets or anything any more than you are in volleys. You're just shooting as fast as you can instead of pausing to synchronise.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 05, 2016, 03:44:33 pm
When the enemy ranks are organized into tightly packed formations, volleys are superior in every single way to fire-at-will, when the enemy is spread out fire-at-will is vastly superior to volleys, both were standard doctrine of medieval armies.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 03:49:41 pm
Star Wars strategies haven't changed because they've found what works. For them, at any rate. But stuff was still and is still being developed. Differences are more subtle, like cruise missiles vs. carriers or battlecruisers vs. dreadnoughts, but they're still there.
Examples of what exactly has changed would be nice.
As far as I can tell the biggest tech changes in the entirity of Star Wars canon are the Death Star and the Kaminoans perfecting cloning. These were both developed during the prequel movies, so I can only presume Palpatine was Evil Space Da Vinci.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 03:50:58 pm
This doesn't make sense to me. If the archers aren't shooting at the enemies, your problem isn't going to be solved by volleys. If your officers are trying to pick out specific targets between volleys, you're likely wasting a lot of time. You can shout back, forward, left or right during continuous shooting as well as with volleys, I would think.

Shooting at will doesn't involve decisions, though. You're not trying to choose targets or anything any more than you are in volleys. You're just shooting as fast as you can instead of pausing to synchronise.
But that's how you use archers. You don't just put as many arrows downrange as possible, you target formations in order to stop them from attacking or prepare them for an attack. You also can't direct the unit as a group if everyone isn't aiming at the same thing.

Of course it does. You need to look at the enemy and decide they're the enemy (distinguishing targets is not always easy, friendly fire was common throughout history even in a melee and it would be very likely to happen when you're shooting at something from a range), you also need to decide what angle to fire at in order to hit them, keeping in mind the enemy's rate of advance as well as environmental factors. You also need to decide when to stop shooting! Volley fire is a great way to keep track of how many arrows everyone has left and also control the rate of fire. You do not always want to be shooting as fast as possible! You want to be able to direct force precisely, in the exact amount needed. What you don't want is everyone shooting as quickly as possible at an enemy that the leaders do not consider a threat, or loosing 1000 arrows at a formation to find that the situation only required 500, or asking the unit to open fire only to find that half are out of arrows.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 05, 2016, 03:54:50 pm
NFO puts it pretty succinctly.

And deciding what angle to shoot at is not something volleys will help with. I agree on the others, though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 05, 2016, 03:56:42 pm
I searched for volleys and archers on google and can't find any historical sources one way or another. One nice point someone made is that by shooting in volley, you can be sure all your archers are effectivelly shooting in cadence. Otherwise,  a lot of them might be distracted, considering fleeing or doing something else than pouring arrows downrange as far as possible. Making them shoot in volley, just like making infantry goosestep, is a nice way to keep them all focused on the task and easily controllable.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 05, 2016, 03:57:34 pm
Not to mention resupplying an entire unit is a task in itself. I'd imagine that knowing exactly how many bundles of arrows the unit needed would be a lot simpler than asking each individual how many arrows he used.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 05, 2016, 04:00:04 pm
1. Galactic Empire owns an entire galaxy, Federation has about a fourth of one. Point Empire here.
I am pretty sure this isin't a thing. More like 3/4 or half of galaxy.

Actually, have a map. (http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/starwars/images/9/93/Reconquest_of_the_Rim.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20151029161051)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 04:02:14 pm
1. Galactic Empire owns an entire galaxy, Federation has about a fourth of one. Point Empire here.
I am pretty sure this isin't a thing. More like 3/4 or half of galaxy.

Actually, have a map. (http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/starwars/images/9/93/Reconquest_of_the_Rim.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20151029161051)
Well that's still technically a point for the Empire, but I am gleeful nonetheless :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 05, 2016, 04:02:26 pm
That's just because nobody lives in the other half of the galaxy but the fucking Chiss. I wouldn't even evolve next to them, much less share a spacefaring society.

The fucking Emperor was just like "nah it's good" when the Chiss asked if he was going to conquer their side of the galaxy, and conquest was like the only thing he was into.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 05, 2016, 04:04:43 pm
Since the UFP doesn't even own the entire alpha quadrant, and instead shares it with the Klingons, Romulans, Cardassians, and whoever else, TGE owning sixty percent or so of their galaxy is an enormous point in their favor.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BFEL on July 05, 2016, 04:08:24 pm
Since the UFP doesn't even own the entire alpha quadrant, and instead shares it with the Klingons, Romulans, Cardassians, and whoever else, TGE owning sixty percent or so of their galaxy is an enormous point in their favor.
The Cardassians aren't in the alpha quadrant, but the BETA quadrant. That's where DS9 is.
Federation has about half the Alpha and half the Beta quadrant under its control. Earth is literally the dividing line between the two quadrants.
So they effectively control 1/4 of their galaxy.

But yeah, like I said, still point Empire.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 05, 2016, 04:17:45 pm
1. Galactic Empire owns an entire galaxy, Federation has about a fourth of one. Point Empire here.
I am pretty sure this isin't a thing. More like 3/4 or half of galaxy.

Actually, have a map. (http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/starwars/images/9/93/Reconquest_of_the_Rim.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20151029161051)
Well that's still technically a point for the Empire, but I am gleeful nonetheless :P
Also, while this doesn't really give you numbers, it gives some sense of scale and where people actually live. (http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20090903055032/starwars/images/6/6c/GalacticPopulation.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 05, 2016, 09:40:09 pm
Star Wars strategies haven't changed because they've found what works. For them, at any rate. But stuff was still and is still being developed. Differences are more subtle, like cruise missiles vs. carriers or battlecruisers vs. dreadnoughts, but they're still there.
Examples of what exactly has changed would be nice.
As far as I can tell the biggest tech changes in the entirity of Star Wars canon are the Death Star and the Kaminoans perfecting cloning. These were both developed during the prequel movies, so I can only presume Palpatine was Evil Space Da Vinci.

Well, if you look at the changes in design from the Venator to the Star Destroyer...and yeah I'm kinda copping out on this one, mostly because I don't remember what the exact changes are. My point is mostly that while people think of it as technological stagnation, it's mostly because at a certain point, refinement is the only thing you can really do, that and I think strikecraft doctrine and design changes (look at the various TIE types that were developed in the EU after the events of the movies, for instance). That, and apparently superweapon design. >.> Whether it's the Sun Crusher or the new movie's Star Eater or whatever.

Kamino already had stupid good cloning, they just didn't have the facilities for such mass production and training, as far as I know.

I searched for volleys and archers on google and can't find any historical sources one way or another. One nice point someone made is that by shooting in volley, you can be sure all your archers are effectivelly shooting in cadence. Otherwise,  a lot of them might be distracted, considering fleeing or doing something else than pouring arrows downrange as far as possible. Making them shoot in volley, just like making infantry goosestep, is a nice way to keep them all focused on the task and easily controllable.
Another thing to note is that it's sortof like MRSI is for artillery nowadays. You can take evasive action to some degree against a single archer. Harder to do that against fifty. Morale impact helps too. But I'm pretty sure that once they got real close that it was basically fire at will. Once volleys would be less volleys and more horizontal sheets, that is.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on July 05, 2016, 09:46:53 pm
Arguably I'd say the kaminoans cloning successes were more from methodology involved than the technology used to grow the clones. Also given the size of tipoca city and it's facilities, I'd likely say that they had the ability to produce a large army, just the production time was particularly lengthy compared to mass conscription, enlistment or the manufacture of droids.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 06, 2016, 01:59:38 pm
Since the UFP doesn't even own the entire alpha quadrant, and instead shares it with the Klingons, Romulans, Cardassians, and whoever else, TGE owning sixty percent or so of their galaxy is an enormous point in their favor.
The Cardassians aren't in the alpha quadrant, but the BETA quadrant. That's where DS9 is.
Federation has about half the Alpha and half the Beta quadrant under its control. Earth is literally the dividing line between the two quadrants.
So they effectively control 1/4 of their galaxy.

But yeah, like I said, still point Empire.
Err, the Cardies are in the Alpha Quadrant, as is Bajor.  The Klingons and Romulans are in the Beta Quadrant, as are the Vulcans.  Also, as a bit of a Trekkie myself, I think you're significantly overstating the size of the Federation.  The amount of space explored by the great powers of the Alpha and Beta Quadrants is maybe about half of each quadrant.  The UFP covers around 8000 light years in diameter, naturally with estimations given based on where it has met other great powers.  This seems rather large to us, but the Milky Way galaxy is at least 100 thousand light years in diameter.  In area, even assuming the UFP were a perfect disc from the "top" to "bottom" of the stellar disc, it covers less than 0.6% of the entire galaxy, which is a far cry from a quarter of the galaxy implied by control of half each of two quadrants.  I think you mistook "half of the Federation being in each quadrant" with "half of each quadrant is controlled by the Federation". 

EDIT:
To put this in perspective, if the Empire by volume were to be considered analogous to Russia in area (chosen due to being the largest country by area on Earth), the United Federation of Planets would correspond rather well to Belarus.  This neglects human capital or the ability to leverage this preponderance of force, but it is a tremendous preponderance of resources nonetheless.  So yes, point very much Empire. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 06, 2016, 05:19:11 pm
No. And that's not a particularly helpful comment, since you can't prove the converse.
Fair enough.
The advantages of volley fire outweigh any advantage you might gain in rate of fire. Men firing as they wish are going to be inaccurate. With peer pressure and direction from officers you can make everyone hit the same spot. Why trust individuals to judge their shots when you can control their fire to ensure that everyone hits the advancing enemy? There is also this impression that volley fire is somehow significantly slower than firing at will. If anything everyone will be faster by proceeding in a coordinated and instinctive manner, doing as they have been trained rather than being under pressure to make difficult decisions on their own.

Men were drilled because they needed to do as ordered, it was the officers who needed to be able to think independently. Allowing individual decision-making might increase rate of fire for the more skilled, confident, and independently-minded individuals, but for others it would slow their rate of fire to below average or make them so inaccurate as to be useless, or reducing the effectiveness of the fire while increasing its volume. The structure of armies for all time has always revolved around lowering the total amount of decisions that need to be made.

My point is that a higher rate of fire does not necessarily lead to more effective fire.
I can't speak for fire at will commands, as I'm not even sure if they existed when or how they were used

But to look at Agincourt where 6,000 English soldiers defeated 20-30,000 French soldiers with volley fire can show quite accurately when volley fire works just perfectly.
The English army had been marching for quite some time, suffering from starvation, dysentery, homesickness and constantly being outmaneuvred by a superior French force that was growing and whose commanders were competently maintaining their tactical advantages against the English. The French were aware of the danger of longbowmen, and aware that the English had sizeable numbers of them, thus the French commander Boucicault favoured simply starving the English army to surrender instead of risking open battle. If the French had known of the 6,000 English soldiers, 5,000 of them were Longbowmen from Wales and England, they may have attempted a more risky assault instead of their conservative approach which pretty much sealed the deal (though then again, French experiences with archers were that they were relatively worthless, so they may not have listened to Boucicault anyways, as part of the problem with the French army was Lords eager for glory ignoring the wisdom of experienced soldiers). They encamped at Agincourt, blocking the road to Calais, with the supply issue being quite shite, this forced the English to fight on French terms. The site the French chose was altogether quite narrow, with the ground being heavy clay (slowing their cavalry down), the French wearing much heavier armour after it had rained all over that heavy clay (heavy, sticky mud + heavy plate = slow, laborous charge), bounded by hills and forests.

The French delayed battle for 3 days, at which point King Henry in charge of the English army advanced to the narrowest point of the battlefield, setting up stakes before ordering his longbowmen with the heaviest bows to fire galling arrows into the French lines. These arrows were not meant to do much beyond wound, frighten and disorientate French horses and soldiers, which the nobility (making up the cavalry) found highly dishonourable and insulting. The French commanders Charles d'Albert and Boucicault were both experienced soldiers and good commanders, but they were not considered of high enough rank to be worth respecting, thus the cavalry ignored their commands and amassed to charge the dishonourable English longbowmen. Having already been attacked unprepared, the cavalry then attacked unprepared out of anger, with only 500 knights able to charge out of the 2,500 they had at the battlefield. In order to salvage a tremendously deteriorating situation, the infantry were ordered to follow up the knights. The heavy infantry, already slowed by the mud, were now even further slowed by the mud kicked up by the charging cavalry. The longbowmen held their arrows en masse until the cavalry were within 220 to 240 yards, at which point they loosed arrows into the cavalry.

5,000 longbowmen vs 500 knights, horses panicked, riders were thrown from their saddles, were inflicted with terrible wounds, the horses thrown back - trampling right into their own advancing infantry. The French army had crossbowmen and longbowmen of their own, but they had been placed behind the French footmen because they were unwilling to use them (sharing the same line as commoners and servants the Lords didn't really care to use), meaning the battle's outcome now depended on the fatigued heavy infantry. The heavy infantry were injured greatly by the volleys of longbowmen fire, but the real killer was their own march, trampling over and crushing their own fallen infantry in the drowning mud. This crushing march eventually reached the English lines and even managed to push them back a bit, but by then a counterattack was all that was needed to overpower the tired and wounded, capturing thousands (and momentarily executing many prisoners due to reports of French raids on their baggage train). The French were by then so densely packed that not only were they killing their own by falling upon one another, but they could hardly use their own weapons effectively in hand to hand combat. The English flanks continued pouring point blank fire at the packed infantry, which may have even managed to severely injure even the heaviest armoured nobleman, but the most significant thing is that at this point the French infantry were so exhausted they were pretty much done for.
With visors, a crush of human bodies and the long march under thousands of arrows, many suffocated to death in their own armour, or when knocked down no longer had the strength to lift themselves from the muck under the weight of so much armour.

I'm not really convinced then that the issue here is accuracy, speed, or independent thinking. Agincourt displayed both, and neither hampered accuracy or speed, and the longbowmen on the flanks were just as accurate as the core. I would suppose speed and accuracy are a matter of how well trained and disciplined the troops are, after all, your volley is only as good as your leadership and your soldiers' training (Henry ordering the first volley fire as the knights entered the furthest effective longbow range for example). Moreover, a shoddy archer will not be able to shoot where they are commanded to shoot if they are a shoddy archer, you don't really get better accuracy from an inaccurate archer - training is paramount (as the saying went, you trained a Welsh longbowman starting with his grandfather).
I suppose the greatest difference is that since you're not going to cause much in the way of casualties on heavily armoured infantry or cavalry either way with your arrows, with a volley you cause the most wounds and most importantly - panic. I reckon the psychological impact of a rain of thousands of arrows is more demoralizing than a pattering of arrows

Though I suspect you would want a pattering of arrows if you wanted to suppress enemy archers, that last bit is speculation I'm just completely guessing on tho
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 06, 2016, 11:37:11 pm
The French men-at-arms were highly aware of the presence of English longbows, which is why they chose to wear their heaviest configuration of armor that day.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 07, 2016, 01:15:23 am
Part of the question would also then be the amount of training and discipline you could expect from your troops.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 07, 2016, 06:20:13 am
The French men-at-arms were highly aware of the presence of English longbows, which is why they chose to wear their heaviest configuration of armor that day.
Yes, but to the full extent it can hardly be said - consider that whilst the English camp was sombre, miserable and Henry expected to die fighting, the French camp was jubilant, celebrating before their assumed victory, fighting each other for the honour of being first into battle
You don't really do that if you fully acknowledge the danger your opponent poses

Part of the question would also then be the amount of training and discipline you could expect from your troops.
As the saying goes you know, I think it's one of those well known things now that gets thrown around every now and then, guns originally took over from longbowmen not because they were more powerful or accurate (initially being both less accurate and less powerful), but because it was far easier to train than than longbowmen
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 07, 2016, 06:33:48 am
Didn't the French unexpectedly lose almost all of their ranged offensive presence to the damp as well? Doesn't help.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 07, 2016, 06:38:34 am
Didn't the French unexpectedly lose almost all of their ranged offensive presence to the damp as well? Doesn't help.
Nah they put them at the back of their lines cos they felt they didn't need them
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 07, 2016, 11:19:32 am
Didn't the French unexpectedly lose almost all of their ranged offensive presence to the damp as well? Doesn't help.
Nah they put them at the back of their lines cos they felt they didn't need them
Prob'ly both, honestly. Even if they had used 'em, would have been close to useless.

Discipline is important, tho'
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 07, 2016, 11:35:28 am
Prob'ly both, honestly. Even if they had used 'em, would have been close to useless.

Discipline is important, tho'
The English and their longbows were in the same damp as the French and their longbows though and were sick, starving, exhausted, supplies overstretched and cut off from retreat. By contrast a quarter of the French army were longbowmen or crossbowmen yet the heavy infantry marched on without their support

It is unlikely the longbowmen would've been able to take on the infantry if they too were being pelted with arrows

*EDIT
Quote
Henry’s first battle [before he was king] was not against the French, but the English. At Shrewsbury on 21 July 1403 the 16-year-old Henry, Prince of Wales, lined up alongside his father to face the forces of the rebel lord, Henry Percy.

At Shrewsbury Henry led his forces well, and made a major contribution to the victory. In the course of the battle, however, he was shot in the face by an arrow that entered below his eye, missed both brain and spinal cord and stuck in the bone at the back of the skull. To remove the embedded arrowhead, special tongs had to be designed, made and carefully inserted nearly six inches into the wound to grip and extract the metal.

It took a further three weeks to cleanse and close up the hole – and all this in the days before anaesthetics.
No wonder the man was so serious
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 07, 2016, 12:54:37 pm
Jesus Christ that sounds like a fun injury.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 07, 2016, 02:42:35 pm
Quote
Henry’s first battle [before he was king] was not against the French, but the English. At Shrewsbury on 21 July 1403 the 16-year-old Henry, Prince of Wales, lined up alongside his father to face the forces of the rebel lord, Henry Percy.

At Shrewsbury Henry led his forces well, and made a major contribution to the victory. In the course of the battle, however, he was shot in the face by an arrow that entered below his eye, missed both brain and spinal cord and stuck in the bone at the back of the skull. To remove the embedded arrowhead, special tongs had to be designed, made and carefully inserted nearly six inches into the wound to grip and extract the metal.

It took a further three weeks to cleanse and close up the hole – and all this in the days before anaesthetics.
No wonder the man was so serious
This potentially tells us a lot about just how good armor was at protecting against arrow fire. They were being pelted by arrows and where does he get shot? In the face, through the holes in his visor presumably.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 07, 2016, 07:32:18 pm
Knights would come back from the crusades looking like pincushions, because the arrows simply could not penetrate. Even longbow bodkin arrows couldn't go through breastplate; they were meant to go through chainmail and other vulnerable areas and inflict damage that way, or kill the horse to topple the rider.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 07, 2016, 07:45:43 pm
Yeah Agincourt casualties were from arrows that penetrated cheap wrought iron at weak spots or gaps, where riders were thrown from horses into the ground or wounded horses trampled into their own lines, or from the crush of soldiers, or soldiers who got trapped under the weight of their own armour drowning or suffocating in their suits and the mud. Also the archers straight up just killing them with daggers and mallets whilst they were stuck on the ground. And maybe a few point blank shots at the end of the battle pierced some of the high end stuff

Fucking hell, what a way to not want to die

Also on the power of the longbow:
Quote
Furthermore, the longbow in the hand of an experienced longbowman, packed quite a punch with its capacity to even puncture (early-period) steel armor over a substantial distance. This is what Gerald of Wales, the Cambro-Norman archdeacon and historian of 12th century, had to say about the Welsh longbow (the precursor to the ‘English’ variety)-

    …n the war against the Welsh, one of the men of arms was struck by an arrow shot at him by a Welshman. It went right through his thigh, high up, where it was protected inside and outside the leg by his iron chausses, and then through the skirt of his leather tunic; next it penetrated that part of the saddle which is called the alva or seat; and finally it lodged in his horse, driving so deep that it killed the animal.
http://www.realmofhistory.com/2016/05/03/10-interesting-facts-english-longbowman/
Dank

Noting how powerful they were, it goes to show just how effective good plate armour (with padding beneath to boot) was, to be able to weather longbows more or less all right
Quote
In a modern test, a direct hit from a steel bodkin point penetrated Damascus mail armour.

However, even heavy-draw longbows have trouble penetrating well-made steel plate armour, which was used increasingly after 1350.
Recommended read in regards to modern testing (http://www.liquisearch.com/english_longbow/use_and_performance/range_and_penetration)
Quote
Strickland and Hardy suggest that "even at a range of 240 yards heavy war arrows shot from bows of poundages in the mid- to upper range possessed by the Mary Rose bows would have been capable of killing or severely wounding men equipped with armour of wrought iron. Higher-quality armour of steel would have given considerably greater protection, which accords well with the experience of Oxford's men against the elite French vanguard at Poitiers in 1356, and des Ursin's statement that the French knights of the first ranks at Agincourt, which included some of the most important (and thus best-equipped) nobles, remained comparatively unhurt by the English arrows."

Modern tests and contemporary accounts agree therefore that well-made plate armour could protect against longbows, however there are a number of caveats to this point; not all plate armour was well-made or well looked after, and there were also weak points in the eye and air holes and joints where arrows could penetrate, meaning that even if the armour was proof against nearly all arrows, being shot at by thousands of longbowmen would have been an uncomfortable experience, physically and mentally. One contemporary French account described the barrage at Agincourt against French knights wearing plate armour as a "terrifying hail of arrow shot".
Oh hey, my armchair general thoughts on the psychological effects turned out to not be total bullshit
That basically makes me Armchair Henry
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 07, 2016, 11:30:54 pm
If armor couldn't protect against arrow fire why did they wear armor?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 07, 2016, 11:37:25 pm
Body armor can't stop a rifle round at under 100 meters, why wear it?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 07, 2016, 11:43:34 pm
It can't?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 07, 2016, 11:49:13 pm
I don't actually know the exact figures, but a rifle round needs to lose the majority of its energy before military vests can stop it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 07, 2016, 11:53:10 pm
Military vests?  The kind with the ceramic plates?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 07, 2016, 11:58:55 pm
Yes, that kind.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 12:11:59 am
Those ceramic plates do stop rifle rounds, .308, 30-06, 7,62x54R and such too, even at close range. Russians and I think the Chinese too use steel plates because they're cheaper, but those have the nasty habit of either spalling within the man they're supposed to protect or letting the hitting bullet or parts of it "slide" to the side and penetrate. Theres some videos of that happenining in Youtube too, idiots toying with their equipment and getting hurt.

But those plates only cover ones torso, partially, and they're pretty heavy. The rest of the protection, that is kevlar fiber or similar, fully protects one only from long range or light caliber hits, shrapnel, flying debris and so forth. Upper legs with some major blood vessels remain vulnerable, as do arms, neck etc. Also most helmets dont fully stop a rifle bullet at close range; the fiber may contain the bullet, but it'll also extend within your brain.  :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 08, 2016, 12:30:45 am
Body armor can't stop a rifle round at under 100 meters, why wear it?
Most engagements don't happen at under 100m unless you're doing MOUT, and that is an acceptable risk when wearing more armor would be really awful for a rifleman's stamina. Not to mention that the insurgents in Afghanistan today normally initiate ambushes from 200-300m*.

*Marine Force Recon After Action Report (slide 21, first paragraph, third line) (https://www.dropbox.com/s/qgsubq7rncvwezd/the_eagle_went_over_the_mountain.ppt?dl=0)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 08, 2016, 12:40:27 am
If armor couldn't protect against arrow fire why did they wear armor?
It did though. Also because you fight more than arrows. Like, you know. Swords and shit. And those can be a lot more deadly than an arrow. An arrow, as long as it doesn't hit something vital and you don't get gangrene, you'll live. Look at Henry. You take a sword to the face and you're dead. Armor helps a lot with that. Like, a lot a lot.

Crossbows would just go straight through, though. The good ones, anyway, which are the only ones worth comparing to longbows, because otherwise you should just compare shoddy bows to shoddy crossbows. Genoese crossbowmen. Pavises are great, man.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 01:06:09 am
Actually, most engagements happen at under 100 m. Typically 150 meters is the maximum... Afghanistan making an important exception.

US Army's standard issue rifle is the M4 Carbine. Most Marine units are swapping to it by end of 2016 too. It has much shorter barrel than old M16(14½" vs. 20") and lower bullet muzzle velocity and thus range too. The M855/M855A1 bullet is likely to rapidly tumble and shrapnel within tissue depending on entering velocity and angle, and that best effective range is at most about 150 meters. Possibly only 100 m. Outside of that, it mostly just makes a hole.

I dont have very reliable or vast data on average or maximum engagement ranges, but it should be telling that US Army and USMC are valuing the compactness of the M4 over the better reach of longer-barreled M-16, and have been reducing the number of .308/7,62 NATO weapons too. The Marine 43-man(3 13-man squads + command fireteam) USMC Infantry Platoon has only 5.56x45 weapons. Only attached support teams may have 7,62 NATO marksmen rifles or M240 machine gun. Same goes for US Army, here is a nice illustration, where the only non-5.56 weapons are the SR-25/M110 marksmen rifles:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

That said one can get .223 Rem/5.56x45 cartridges that reliably expand and make horrible wounds up 400 m and beyond... Most of those are just prohibited by Hague convention and dont penetrate steel or protective gear as well, and they're all very expensive.  ::)

edit: the UK and Russians actually still have a 7,62 NATO or equivalent caliber rifle in every fire team.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 08, 2016, 01:08:58 am
My training sure as hell didn't focus on close engagements, intended engagement range on foot was between 150 and 300 meters.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 08, 2016, 01:39:02 am
The M4 muzzle velocity is 95% of the M16 muzzle velocity and 25% higher then the AK-74M.  Just because it's a little shorter doesn't mean it's not an assault rifle.

Internet couch warriors spent years scoffing at the overkill of the M16 and how you dont need a muzzle velocity that high.  Why one earth would you expect regular soldiers to need to shoot targets 500 meters away in the middle of a firefight?  Now it turns off the slightly reducing the range from the alleged pointless overkill means that you might as well be spitting at the target.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 01:56:56 am
Well yeah, you dont need all that velocity most of the time and you get a lighter gun, soo...  :)

Over the years they also went from lighter 55 gr M193 ball with very high muzzle velocity to the more penetration-oriented 62 gr M855/SS109 and then to penetrating-tip M855A1. The old M193 is brutal, at least Israel still uses it. I have some of it myself too... Also some even lighter SAKO 50 gr FMJ with muzzle velocity of almost 1100 m/s or 3500 fps.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

The muzzle velocity difference is nearing 6%, thats 13% energy advantage. But I think the trajectory is flat enough and the real advantage is in the extended range of tumble and fragmentation. I couldnt find an equivalent of the lower chart for the modern cartridges(M855, M855A1, Mk318), but its worse than the displayed performance for M193. Or well Mk318 could be better.

But none of those gun-cartridge combinations penetrate a ceramic plate, which is why they're worn! And at typical shooting range M4 is just as good. :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 08, 2016, 02:06:30 am
High muzzle velocity is really helpful when you're zeroing sights as well. If you set your sights for 300m on the M-16 and shoot center mass on a standing target at 200m you'll still hit him. Or at least you won't miss by very much.

-snip-
Do consider the enemy the US military finds themselves up against today. Most insurgents don't wear body armor, therefore distributing a carbine increases effectiveness, because the soldiers have a handier and lighter weapon and you still have plenty firepower for reducing infantry.

If armor couldn't protect against arrow fire why did they wear armor?
It did though.
That was my point. People wore armor because it was fantastic protection against the weapons of the day. And armor doesn't just refer to plate. This idea of longbows arrows punching through the thickest part of plate armor, the chainmail underneath, the gambeson underneath that, and then wounding the man underneath, is ridiculous.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 02:24:20 am
High muzzle velocity is really helpful when you're zeroing sights as well. If you set your sights for 300m on the M-16 and shoot center mass on a standing target at 200m you'll still hit him. Or at least you won't miss by very much.

Oh yeah but 5.56 is such as fast cartridge that there isnt much difference in point blank ranges between barrel lengths any more. Zero to 150 meters or so and you can hit a man's chest tall target all the way to 350-400 meters by just going for the middle of the mass.

Those lightweight 50grs come out from my 22" fast!!  :)

Compare that to, say, 7,62x39. Not only is the trajectory bad because of the slow muzzle speed, the recoil worse, the gun itself heavier, but those also mostly come with iron sights only too...

Quote
Do consider the enemy the US military finds themselves up against today. Most insurgents don't wear body armor, therefore distributing a carbine increases effectiveness, because the soldiers have a handier and lighter weapon and you still have plenty firepower for reducing infantry.

I would like to agree but I dont think an army should optimize too much for fighting a fairly weak, secondary foe in an asymmetric war somewhere in sandbox. Where the performance matters most is a real shooting war against a large, organized, modern enemy, and the US potentially has several of those.

But I still think M4 is okay. But maybe you Americans should consider using 7,62 support weapons slightly more.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 08, 2016, 02:30:12 am
Lots more marksman rifles would be a nice step, I'd think.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 08, 2016, 02:38:57 am
I would like to agree but I don't think an army should optimize too much for fighting a fairly weak, secondary foe in an asymmetric war somewhere in sandbox. Where the performance matters most is a real shooting war against a large, organized, modern enemy, and the US potentially has several of those.
But we're not in a real shooting war with an large, modern enemy, and it's been shown that the same tactics and weapons you use against that kind of threat are not the kind you ought to bring to bear against this type of threat. It is also a mistake to assume they're weak or disorganized, at least in the case of Afghanistan, where the enemy has been practicing their insurgency techniques for half a century, and they've managed to effectively ambush Marines time and again. Not to mention this conflict has been dragged out for more than two decades. At some point you need to adapt or die. Obviously they can never win, but we can make things less costly by adapting our weapons and tactics to the situation.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 08, 2016, 02:40:28 am
If armor couldn't protect against arrow fire why did they wear armor?
It did though.
That was my point. People wore armor because it was fantastic protection against the weapons of the day. And armor doesn't just refer to plate. This idea of longbows arrows punching through the thickest part of plate armor, the chainmail underneath, the gambeson underneath that, and then wounding the man underneath, is ridiculous.

At short range I'd believe it. But actually, armour doesn't do too amazingly well against direct hits. It's designed to make any slightly skiff blow skate straight off (and just suck it up, too). That's why mail is useful even though it's pretty easy to burst the links with a rondel.

Also, later period knights (post about 1350) would wear voiders and skirts instead of a full hauberk. Less weight.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 03:04:15 am
I would like to agree but I don't think an army should optimize too much for fighting a fairly weak, secondary foe in an asymmetric war somewhere in sandbox. Where the performance matters most is a real shooting war against a large, organized, modern enemy, and the US potentially has several of those.
But we're not in a real shooting war with an large, modern enemy, and it's been shown that the same tactics and weapons you use against that kind of threat are not the kind you ought to bring to bear against this type of threat. It is also a mistake to assume they're weak or disorganized, at least in the case of Afghanistan, where the enemy has been practicing their insurgency techniques for half a century, and they've managed to effectively ambush Marines time and again. Not to mention this conflict has been dragged out for more than two decades. At some point you need to adapt or die. Obviously they can never win, but we can make things less costly by adapting our weapons and tactics to the situation.

No you are not, but that threat also isnt existential to US or her allies(besides Afghanistan if US decides to leave). Taliban is not a foe that can defeat you. Most casualties are to IEDs and other bombs any way. Asymmetric warfare against Taliban isnt very cost effective with the gear you have had perhaps.

In my humble opinion one is better off preparing and practicing for WW3 and overkilling those ragheads(shooting individual combatants with Hellfire missiles, or artillery and all that), than preparing for those an unfair playing, weak goat herders with Lee-Enfields and AK-47s and bombs but instead end up in having to fight the Chinese.

That said I dont think M-16 vs. M4 debate still matters much for Afghanistan, both are about equally mediocre there out of inhabited areas. Outside of Army and USMC, the USN and USAF are about all but just varmint control at somebody elses lawn, and those two branches are the ones where US is most superior to anyone else any way. So situation under control, I guess.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 08, 2016, 03:32:49 am
I don't see how the US military could make itself more prepared for war by avoiding a fight.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 04:03:13 am
I don't see how the US military could make itself more prepared for war by avoiding a fight.

?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 08, 2016, 10:43:05 am
I'm with Erkki on this one GUNIN, the intent wasn't 'you shouldn't be fighting these guys' (that is a topic for a different thread I think), the intent was, 'don't treat fighting these guys as the be all end all of war, or when the real thing shows up you'll get wrecked'.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 08, 2016, 11:45:19 am
Oh well of course. But it's not like the US doesn't anticipate or plan for other conflicts while they're involved in another one. They've been playing global war games since 1986, and the scenario is never "coalition forces versus insurgency in Afghanistan", it's World War 3. My point is that the US doesn't become completely blind to all threats simply because they're involved in a shooting war with someone.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 08, 2016, 11:55:54 am
Is this still related to assault rifles?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 08, 2016, 12:13:19 pm
Is this still related to assault rifles?

I'm not sure. It was supposed to be about modern day vs. medieval body armor usefulness I guess.  :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 08, 2016, 12:16:51 pm
Yep. Ceramic plates vs. AKs and Kevlar vs Carbines, Cast-Iron plate vs Longbows and Steel plate vs Crossbows.

Speaking of which, how hardcore were the bolts on crossbows? Would they penetrate a wooden shield and still injure the knight behind it?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 08, 2016, 12:19:50 pm
A heavy crossbow quarrel would stand a decent chance of doing so I believe, it had about the force of a .30 cal and around the same contact area.

Edit: not likely to retain enough velocity to penetrate heavy plate armor tho'.  Chain?  Possibly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on July 08, 2016, 12:29:36 pm
I'm pretty sure most missile weapons of the medieval era could penetrate shields. At least to the extent of wounding. Towards the late medieval and early renaissance periods, less so, but still shields were, maybe surprisingly, not the best defense against period ranged weaponry. They were designed to slow strikes though, which is big positive.

Interms of pure penetration, yes, crossbows and bows could probably fully penetrate shields close to 100% of the time head-on, not taking in to account deflections, but unless the bolt/arrow went through your forearm, it was also probably unlikely to seriously harm you if you were a soldier during the medieval time period.

Of course, that's the ideal, I imagine there was also a fair chance of the bolt/arrow just missing the shield and hitting you in the leg or neck, and earlier shields were kind of floppy pieces of balsa wood.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 08, 2016, 12:32:38 pm
If armor couldn't protect against arrow fire why did they wear armor?
The high quality armour could most of the time, check the article - in battles where the French were not hindered by terrain, their frontline infantry (consisting of noblemen best able to afford the best steel and best armour) were essentially physically unaffected by longbow arrows. Also there's a minor note alongside all the caveats that isn't mentioned but I saw somewhere else, a Knight wearing wrought iron armour or hit at a weak point charging on horseback is a fast moving object colliding with a fast moving object, which would certainly help things (assuming the horse isn't killed, horses weren't as well armoured).

Yep. Ceramic plates vs. AKs and Kevlar vs Carbines, Cast-Iron plate vs Longbows and Steel plate vs Crossbows.
Cast iron would not be used for plate armour, it is too brittle
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 08, 2016, 12:37:49 pm
Right, Wrought. Thanks.

Also you'd also wear armor for the deflection chance.
Better to shave a few links off your maile than shave a few inches off your thigh.

Probably the only reason for the kettle helmets- the 'just in case' factor.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 08, 2016, 02:35:04 pm
I was about to say. Cast would suck. Wrought is only a little better, cause it's pretty soft. Kettle hats have the merit that if you tuck your head, arrows are likely to glance.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 08, 2016, 03:38:42 pm
Sallets and kettle helmets were always worn with a bevor if possible. You're begging to be shot in the throat if you're not wearing one.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Edit: Actually I think bevors with kettle hats is ahistorical.

Here's a really cool helmet chart as well:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 09, 2016, 03:16:40 am
Bevor with kettle hat strikes me as certainly not a thing. The helmet is completely the wrong shape.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 09, 2016, 03:42:04 am
Also, if it's one thing we've learned from the kevlar/ceramic debate, rank-and-file infantrymen will usually prefer comfort to protection.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 09, 2016, 12:04:22 pm
You don't always need protection. You always need comfort.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 09, 2016, 12:28:41 pm
You don't always need protection. You always need comfort.

Probably the least successful slogan Trojan ever tried.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 09, 2016, 12:30:28 pm
You don't always need protection. You always need comfort.

What if you need protection even when you think you need comfort?  :)

Composite helmet and and a fiber "flak jacket" or other kind of protective vest are definitely worth the weight. They wont protect from bullets much(if not shot far away, pistol caliber, ricochet etc.), but they do help against all the flying stones, wood splinters, shrapnel and debris. An infantryman typically is more likely to be hit by those than a bullet any way.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Ours looks like that without plate: the "shrapnel vest" and modular vest are separate from the plate carrier unit. So one can use one just one or two of the three depending on what is wanted, and reduce weight ie. no need to bring the plate carrier without the plate, the lighter stuff lets heat and air through better.

For example scout and sniper patrols go with just the modular vest with some pockets, and boonie hat instead of helmet; protection is traded for mobility and endurance for men in a role where they want to always avoid a firefight.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 09, 2016, 12:33:14 pm
It depends largely on how frequently they're shot/shot at. I know individuals who had their plate stop things, then bought a bunch of supplementary gear today protect their shoulders and legs better.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 09, 2016, 12:52:47 pm
So basically the young man's creed: "invincible until proven otherwise?"
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 09, 2016, 12:59:34 pm
I was just pointing out the psychology of the situation. You're on duty in some base nowhere near the fighting. Why should you need to wear another 40 pounds of gear, especially considering the problems infantrymen already get from carrying so much gear for so long?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 09, 2016, 01:23:43 pm
That's actually what reportedly happens. Infantry (and people in general) will tend to: ignore/discard things they think they don't need in order to be more comfortable, until the moment when something negative happens, and from then on they overcompensate in the future because of that bad experience.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 09, 2016, 02:08:41 pm
People with more safety features in their cars will tend to have riskier driving behaviors.

Again, that's how people think. We trade off risk and convenience all the time.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 09, 2016, 02:11:57 pm
Re: Bevors.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 09, 2016, 10:58:56 pm
Exerpt from "On Killing" (beginning of Chapter 7) by Dave Grossman, a book I am becoming a little obsessed with.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 09, 2016, 11:32:35 pm
And yet peasants were able to poke big sticks at other peasants no problem? I wonder if culture has changed.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NRDL on July 09, 2016, 11:36:35 pm
Personally I always wondered how cromagnon and really really early humans felt about killing each other, if PTSD was even possible.  I like to think that the everyday environment of classical antiquity people was so saturated with hardship and violence ( or the threat of violence ) that empathy for your fellow man just didn't exist unless you were physically, socially and financially secure. 

Either that or PTSD was just as common as today, and those who suffered psychological trauma from killing were labelled cowards, and sociopaths who were able to kill for tribe, religion and country were latched onto by historians as warriors.. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 10, 2016, 12:25:45 am
I don't think tribal humans actually killed each other that much. They probably fought much as how the medieval peoples fought. You would posture and intimidate your enemy by shouting and throwing missiles, and when your enemy fled that would be it. If they surrendered and you wanted to dispose of the adult males you would find ritualistic ways of killing them that remove the responsibility of the crime from any one person or distance you from the result (see: lynch mobs that hang people together, firing squads, burning witches at the stake, having someone whose job is to be an executioner). If people have been brainwashed through religious or cultural beliefs they can convince themselves that they were not responsible for a crime as a mental defense mechanism (see: the Jewish Holocaust where people were dispassionately throwing corpses around, various examples of deranged people who believe God was controlling them when they killed).

And yet peasants were able to poke big sticks at other peasants no problem? I wonder if culture has changed.
Your mistake, I think, is in assuming no one in medieval times had any problems with killing each other in combat just because there are no recorded instances of people becoming depressed after killing someone in combat. What we do know is that there is no culture in existence that hasn't punished people for murder, and also had a form of murder that was considered justified. That in itself is evidence for the instinctive urge to not kill one another to be ingrained in us as a species.

But, to take another page from David Grossman, I do think that people back then who slaughtered their own food had more knowledge and respect for the act of killing itself, since it was a time when families slaughtered their own food.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MarcAFK on July 10, 2016, 12:41:16 am
You don't always need protection. You always need comfort.
Said no tanker ever.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 10, 2016, 12:57:24 am
You don't always need protection. You always need comfort.
Said no tanker ever.
How much body armor do Tankers wear? Do they wear ceramic plates and the whole get-up while in the tank? Far as I know, they're not carrying 150+ lbs of gear for hours, most of the time. They're a lot more comfy(sorta) to start with, and also a lot more vulnerable because they're a more valuable target than a single infantryman.

Also, peasants hated being in the military. Desertion was usually rampant if you weren't winning. And only a few were literally on the frontlines. Why do you think morale was so important?

Also. http://www.killology.com/article_agress&viol.htm
When you don't know for certain you've killed someone, and the whole ritual of separation and 'washing away the blood' is in place, it's a lot easier to not get PTSD. Especially if the conflict is easier to justify, one way or another, rather than believing you're killing without a good cause.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 10, 2016, 04:31:33 am
/me raises the Strife signal.

And yet peasants were able to poke big sticks at other peasants no problem? I wonder if culture has changed.

Honestly, they probably felt much the same as modern soldiers.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MarcAFK on July 10, 2016, 06:01:57 am
Uh, I mean the tanks armour, not the crews body armour. No tanker would suggest removing armour modules for more legroom.
:p
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 10, 2016, 06:39:09 am
Uh, I mean the tanks armour, not the crews body armour. No tanker would suggest removing armour modules for more legroom.
:p

One of the biggest problems with the T-34 was the lack of legroom for the driver.  Ergonomics means reaction time and reaction time is life and death.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 10, 2016, 07:16:23 am
Soldiers being reluctant to kill the enemy has been a problem through history. A normal human being just cant kill another just like that, many not even when in danger themselves.

I suppose that in the past the lack of hesitation and will to kill was what was partly giving mounted knights, drunk Vikings or the Huns their fearsome reputation. In modern times, its one of the reasons why soldiers are drilled. The more automatic things become, the smaller the last step of aiming the weapon at the enemy and pulling the trigger becomes.

Its also why say in many drills the pop-up targets are torso-shaped and may be camouflaged: the soldier stops looking for a white or yellow target but rather something shaped like a human with clothing on it, to automatically take aim and fire.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MarcAFK on July 10, 2016, 08:10:26 am
Uh, I mean the tanks armour, not the crews body armour. No tanker would suggest removing armour modules for more legroom.
:p

One of the biggest problems with the T-34 was the lack of legroom for the driver.  Ergonomics means reaction time and reaction time is life and death.
Oh I'm sure the driver getting a cramp was a bigger problem than having an untrained crew, volatile easily detonatable ammunition, plumbing leaking flammable fluids everywhere, turret that can cut limbs off particularly when retrieving shells stored under the floor, an engine choking on improper airflow through poorly designed air filters, and finally those same leaky air filters allowing in contaminates which ruin the engine in a few hundred kilometers.
All very minor problems compared to comfort.
Edit: actually the chieftan of world of tanks fame recently mentioned asking one of his former crew if he minded being kicked in the back very time he got down from the head out of turret position as commander of an M1, the guy said he had no idea that was even happening. However Major Moran is quite adamant that a t34 is horrible for a 6 foot tall guy like him to squeeze into.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 10, 2016, 08:25:30 am
*responds to the signal*

Soviet tanks are, in general, absolutely terrible ergonomic-wise for the crews. The T72 in particular is somewhat famous for requiring very short operators.


Like infantrymen, individual tankers vary pretty greatly in how much personal protective gear they're going to wear if uncontrolled. As part of my oh-shit-let's-kill-north-koreans gear, I replaced my light armor spall vest with an IBA plus xsapi plates.

On Killing is a very useful book that more people should read, however, I would caution about applying it too heavily to the modern field. Grossman didn't have Iraq and Afghanistan to look at, and I'd imagine the continuous contact style of those wars to have some suffering psychological results.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 10, 2016, 09:04:41 am
Not just the T-72, the T-90 is even more compact, heck it basically is just a modernized T-72 renamed in hopes of export sales. Just without the old cast turret(the company went bankrupt in the 90s or something). Those two aren't quite as cramped as the old T-55 though.

I'm a skinny guy too but still had trouble getting in a T-55...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 10, 2016, 09:43:07 am
Well horse jockeys need to earn a living after they hit 18 and get kicked off the track.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MonkeyHead on July 10, 2016, 01:15:53 pm
Soldiers being reluctant to kill the enemy has been a problem through history. A normal human being just cant kill another just like that, many not even when in danger themselves.

I suppose that in the past the lack of hesitation and will to kill was what was partly giving mounted knights, drunk Vikings or the Huns their fearsome reputation. In modern times, its one of the reasons why soldiers are drilled. The more automatic things become, the smaller the last step of aiming the weapon at the enemy and pulling the trigger becomes.

Its also why say in many drills the pop-up targets are torso-shaped and may be camouflaged: the soldier stops looking for a white or yellow target but rather something shaped like a human with clothing on it, to automatically take aim and fire.

IIRC, studies were done on ww1 or ww2 veterans (or possibly an earlier or later conflict, but a basic googling shows it to be a commonly studied phenomenon - the most high profile study seems to have been done by S.L.A Marshall) where they were asked about their shooting habits. It turned out that a massive number never shot to kill, and that they would shoot deliberately high as they did not want to kill. I think the correct military term is soldiers who "posture" - that is, who give the appearance of fighting without actually doing so.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 10, 2016, 01:57:04 pm
Yeah thats right, only about 25% or so of the US soldiers consciously shot at the enemy in WW2. Even against the Japanese.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 10, 2016, 02:07:42 pm
All very minor problems compared to comfort.

I didn't say that they were minor problems.  But the fact that it physically took extreme effort to steer the tank is an ergonomic problem.  Try disabling the power steering on your car sometime.  You can still drive it, it just requires you put some strength into it.  You wont drive as well.

Shell stowage sure helps but mostly tank survival came down to whether they saw danger in time.  The side that shot first, be it tanks or static artillery, almost always came out the better.  Having your driver able to do their job to the best of their abilities matters a lot in avoiding ambushes or engaging rapidly.  Also proper shell stowage might help you survive a hit but being able to evacuate quickly will also help you survive.

And the lack of range on T34s ended up not mattering too much.  Those tanks only needed to last 300 km anyway because the Soviets planned their operations around that assumption.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 10, 2016, 07:31:35 pm
Yeah thats right, only about 25% or so of the US soldiers consciously shot at the enemy in WW2. Even against the Japanese.
Far as I knew, it was about 15-20%. Though that might have been Allied soldiers in general. It's hard to kill your fellow man in a stressful situation, strange as it may sound. You have to be trained to do it on automatic. 55% in Korean War, 95% in Vietnamese war. Crew weapons almost always fired, though, and 'key' weapons like flamethrowers were usually fired, compared to the generic rifleman.

Explains a lot about earlier wars, though. It was brutal, sure, but few deaths were direct on the battlefield, far as I know.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 10, 2016, 08:05:10 pm
Yeah, there's a lot of interesting data on those kinds of numbers. It's important to remember that infantry rifles haven't been the primary killer basically ever (if one defines pre ww1 wars with illness as a weapon). Crew serves have diffusion of responsibility built right in.

It's also important and frequently forgotten that, especially in ww2, the number of days of combat operations served by individual soldiers is very low. Seeing Jerry wasn't a daily or weekly occurrence.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 10, 2016, 09:40:08 pm
I believe the data collected was the percentage of incidences whereupon a soldier, seeing an enemy combatant in the open (aka a ready target), fired with intent to kill, as compared to not firing or firing with intent to miss.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MarcAFK on July 11, 2016, 01:20:27 am
All very minor problems compared to comfort.

I didn't say that they were minor problems.  But the fact that it physically took extreme effort to steer the tank is an ergonomic problem.  Try disabling the power steering on your car sometime.  You can still drive it, it just requires you put some strength into it.  You wont drive as well.

Shell stowage sure helps but mostly tank survival came down to whether they saw danger in time.  The side that shot first, be it tanks or static artillery, almost always came out the better.  Having your driver able to do their job to the best of their abilities matters a lot in avoiding ambushes or engaging rapidly.  Also proper shell stowage might help you survive a hit but being able to evacuate quickly will also help you survive.

And the lack of range on T34s ended up not mattering too much.  Those tanks only needed to last 300 km anyway because the Soviets planned their operations around that assumption.
All those points are valid, every source I've heard has said the t35 was a death trap of epic proportions.
However the Americans who had a look said it had great optics, better than they had available. Also they praised the dodgy build quality, stating that perhaps it would be good to cut more corners where applicable to produce more vechicles. Which is funny really as I've been made aware that the most major advantage the us tankers had over Germans apart from mechanical reliability was situational awareness.
Us tankers could consistently get off the first shots due to a variety of factors, sure some of those might bounce off a tigers hull, but even soo their success rate was petty self evident. Unless you listen to Belton Cooper.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on July 11, 2016, 05:00:06 am
Yes, in a Sherman, every man had several periscopes out. In a Panther, not so much, and the worst of all the gunner only had the scope!

On casualties: I believe the last major wars where musketry inflicted most casualties in combat were probably the US Civil War, 2nd Schleswig War (Denmark vs. Prussia), Seven Weeks War(Austria vs. Prussia) and finally the massive Franco-Prussian war. Interestingly in many of those wars one side had breech-loaders and the other muzzle loaded muskets... And not always the loser!

Besides US Civil War where combat casualties were in minority, those may have also been some of the few wars of the 19th century where combat casualties were higher or equal to non-combat...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 11, 2016, 08:25:02 am
Also they praised the dodgy build quality, stating that perhaps it would be good to cut more corners where applicable to produce more vechicles.

If they said that they were idiots, seeing as the US started to cut M4 production in 1944 since they already had plenty of tanks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 11, 2016, 08:31:51 am
But then, thats the US.

Speaking of which mainiac, ever since reading Wages of Destruction, ive been yearning for a HoI IV Germany game. Did you do it? Any suggestion for settings?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 11, 2016, 08:55:42 am
TBH, I never even played Germany.  They are so OP I just dont see any challenge.  The hard difficulty setting doesn't really increase the difficulty of anyone but France (who is starving for PP points).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 11, 2016, 09:21:00 am
Try to make Fascist Poland like me.

I am now Nazi Germany allied with Communist Poland which is in Axis and we fight against Falangist Poland and there's also second war I have with neutral Poland which has Allies on it's side and there's yet ANOTHER war with Democratic Poland which is apparently SOMEHOW allied with Soviet Union.

What the actual fuck. I just wanted Fascist Poland.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 11, 2016, 09:37:51 am
Too many Polands
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 11, 2016, 12:08:15 pm
Lindybeige on battle fatigue in the ancient world, or did it even exist? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDNyU1TQUXg)

Highly relevant to our discussion on the stresses of ancient soldiers vs modern
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 02:09:23 am
I have became highly suspicious of Lindybeige's stuff since that infamous Spandau video. If you don't bother to do research to the point where you say that MG42 is nearly (only a bit simplier) the same thing as MG34, then holy shit dude.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 12, 2016, 02:14:16 am
It's one error amongst many videos. Nobody is denying that Lindy doesn't have his biases (mocking American English on a too Serious Business level, using the precautionary principle to argue that we shouldn't make an effort to avoid global warming, etc), but he usually cites his sources and is on a level above your typical historical analysis.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 02:27:02 am
He literally said a circle is a square.
Hell, the problem here is not even the fact that he said it, the problem is that he dismissed it as irrelevant and said everyone who pointed that out were Wehraboos.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 04:55:49 am
Kot = Post traumatic spandau disorder
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 12, 2016, 05:02:39 am
TBH, I never even played Germany.  They are so OP I just dont see any challenge.  The hard difficulty setting doesn't really increase the difficulty of anyone but France (who is starving for PP points).

Is it that bad? I was looking forward to a grueling air war against Britain and the US. I guess boosting Germany is needed if you ever want them to take France in the course of a normal game.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 05:04:24 am
Kot = Post traumatic spandau disorder
Geee, where I heard this joke before...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 06:21:06 am
Kot = Post traumatic spandau disorder
Geee, where I heard this joke before...
Just be grateful that you haven't been subjected to gorillion folded nippon steel so sharp it cut through God
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 06:28:44 am
Can katanas cut through Bren barrels?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 12, 2016, 06:42:24 am
I have heard, somewhere, that folding is a property of Damascus steel, not actually katanas.

Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 06:49:31 am
Can katanas cut through Bren barrels?
No, because bren barrels are too accurate, they get +5 to dodging

I have heard, somewhere, that folding is a property of Damascus steel, not actually katanas.

Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Folding is done on low quality iron, not Damascus steel, of which the manner in which it was forged is lost
It did result in a Western revival of pattern welding which makes sexier and better blades tho producing similar patterns to Damascus steel, so maybe that was how they used Damascus steel?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 12, 2016, 06:53:20 am
Sorry yeah I was talking modern.
The original Damascus steel I believe involved green wood and other weird illuminati secrets.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BorkBorkGoesTheCode on July 12, 2016, 06:56:33 am
Sorry yeah I was talking modern.
The original Damascus steel I believe involved green wood and other weird illuminati secrets.
I heard unintentional nanotechnology and special ores.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 07:03:09 am
Damascus steel was basically Valyrian steel, to the point that some German sciencists reported carbon nanotubes and nanowires (wat) in those. Like, not (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/science/28observ.html?_r=0) even joking. (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/11/061116-nanotech-swords.html)

Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Their steel was shit, as in it was hard to make it into a sword, not that the finished product was bad, and the easiest way to get it right was folding, IIRC. Europeans did the same thing in early middle ages with like Ulfberhts and stuff, albeit details vary.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 07:11:30 am
The finished product was bad, it was mass produced shit; the spear, naginata and bow were what did the killing

Top kekels when one of the Chinese Emperors even mass ordered Japanese swords in order to further drive down their quality and deprive pirates of good weapons
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BorkBorkGoesTheCode on July 12, 2016, 07:12:01 am
Damascus steel was basically Valyrian steel, to the point that some German sciencists reported carbon nanotubes and nanowires (wat) in those. Like, not (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/science/28observ.html?_r=0) even joking. (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2006/11/061116-nanotech-swords.html)
Have you read about the roman goblet?

Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Their steel was shit, as in it was hard to make it into a sword, not that the finished product was bad, and the easiest way to get it right was folding, IIRC. Europeans did the same thing in early middle ages with like Ulfberhts and stuff, albeit details vary.
If you look at a resource map of japan there are few natural sources of iron ore, and lots of coal mines.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 07:21:06 am
Don't be so rough on katanas though, the meme is funny and it's true they weren't wonder weapons and that majority of them were dog shit, but some of them, the expensive ones, were actually pretty good. I am not arguing that it was actually used as main weapon, but there is only so many ways you can fuck up a sharp metal stick and I refuse to belive they were as bad or as good as memes make them out to be. The truth is proably somewhere in between.

Have you read about the roman goblet?
Roman magic/acient aliens. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lycurgus_Cup)

If you look at a resource map of japan there are few natural sources of iron ore, and lots of coal mines.
Uh, I think the whole deal is actually about that their iron was contaminated as fuck and they didin't have a lot of it so that's what the whole fuss about. I dunno, really.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 07:28:33 am
Don't be so rough on katanas though, the meme is funny and it's true they weren't wonder weapons and that majority of them were dog shit, but some of them, the expensive ones, were actually pretty good. I am not arguing that it was actually used as main weapon, but there is only so many ways you can fuck up a sharp metal stick and I refuse to belive they were as bad or as good as memes make them out to be. The truth is proably somewhere in between.
No, the truth is they're good for slicing peasants and drawing on a charging Mongolian, that's where it ends. You take a weapon that's used as a shite sidearm, forget how to make it in three dark ages, stick with the same design for 1300 years and what have you got? A shit inflexible sword whose purpose is romanticism and policing
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 07:38:35 am
I belive there is actually retarded variation of Katanas. Fat katanas, slim katanas, light katanas, heavy katanas, longer katanas, shorter katanas and whatever, which supposedly made them useful for various tasks, but that might be just modern thing.

In the end I guess that Katana is better than no weapon, though I would choose an infantry sabre (maybe an karabela, though I'd feel safer with a bit more armoured handguard) because I am apparently some kind of Poleaboo, even if I'm Polish myself.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: BorkBorkGoesTheCode on July 12, 2016, 07:44:55 am
Don't be so rough on katanas though, the meme is funny and it's true they weren't wonder weapons and that majority of them were dog shit, but some of them, the expensive ones, were actually pretty good. I am not arguing that it was actually used as main weapon, but there is only so many ways you can fuck up a sharp metal stick and I refuse to belive they were as bad or as good as memes make them out to be. The truth is proably somewhere in between.
No, the truth is they're good for slicing peasants and drawing on a charging Mongolian, that's where it ends. You take a weapon that's used as a shite sidearm, forget how to make it in three dark ages, stick with the same design for 1300 years and what have you got? A shit inflexible sword whose purpose is romanticism and policing
[Citation Need]
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 07:48:00 am
I've done my bit (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=59069.msg3812062#msg3812062)

I had 2,600 words worth of this crap going through bloomery iron to the dark ages and all that, but I lost it due to virus attack

I may retreat my ground there, but as it stands, Katanas are very low priority for me
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 07:56:08 am
I've done my bit (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=59069.msg3812062#msg3812062)
God Emperor, I got cancer just by listening to first 5 seconds of the Cringemaster America speaking.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 07:58:32 am
It gave me katana fatigue
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MarcAFK on July 12, 2016, 08:55:51 am
The only problem I have with lindybeige is that he's the only youtuber who hasn't replied to my shit posts.   

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 12, 2016, 09:13:51 am
Katanas were pretty shitty for a long while. Then the Mongols invaded. The Japanese bladesmiths were not pleased to learn about their swords snapping in Mongolian brigandine armor. They revamped their techniques, and the swords got pretty good.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 09:45:13 am
The Mongols didn't actually invade, preliminary vanguards were all that made it to Japan, as both their Korean invasion fleets were destroyed by divine winds. Thus the Japanese katana was untested against real enemies, remaining useless compared to the entire world
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 09:58:57 am
Dont you know?  In WWII US marines targeted the guys with the katana's first.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on July 12, 2016, 10:03:18 am
Dont you know?  In WWII US marines targeted the guys with the katana's first.
My grandfather was killed by a weeb, I'll be killed by a weeb, and my grandchildren will be killed by more weebs still. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJAcc24qPyo)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 10:05:50 am
TBH, I never even played Germany.  They are so OP I just dont see any challenge.  The hard difficulty setting doesn't really increase the difficulty of anyone but France (who is starving for PP points).

Is it that bad? I was looking forward to a grueling air war against Britain and the US. I guess boosting Germany is needed if you ever want them to take France in the course of a normal game.

The problem with Germany is that essentially they played very well in summer of 1940 and you can't simulate that in the game.  There was the secret sauce important factor.  Their weird wunderwaffen were never important.  The technological differences for their equipment were mostly a wash.  The only time their tactics looked amazing was when they hit the completely disorganized and unprepared soviets.  The thing that is important about Germany is that at the operational level they had every damn thing possible break exactly the right way for them in 1940.  If the French had acted slightly differently or the Germans had acted slightly differently WWII would have been anti climatic.  We'd be sitting in this armchair general thread discussing if the Entente-Germany war might have gone differently if Italy had helped out Germany in 1939.  Germany wasn't a juggernaut, it was an underdog.


So to have things be realistic the game needs to be unbalanced.  If France and Germany play equally well, Germany should usually lose.  Paradox didn't want to make that game.  It would make a fun game for France and would be fun as Germany for good players but would be boring as hell everyone else.  So they instead made Germany have more military factories then France and Britain combined and made it so that France never gets any cash carry.  Instead of Germany the underdog, Germany can just clobber it's way through with brute force.  And when that's done Germany now has all those military factories plus the ones it took from France and the Low Countries.  Germany is now more powerful then the US.

So there is just no challenge.  The game hands Germany victory against France when that victory was actually very difficult to achieve.  And at that point Germany has such ridiculously overpower resources that they have already won.  Hitler wanted to make Germany the most powerful nation on earth.  In the game that's achieved in 1940.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 12, 2016, 10:14:09 am
Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Their steel was shit, as in it was hard to make it into a sword, not that the finished product was bad, and the easiest way to get it right was folding, IIRC. Europeans did the same thing in early middle ages with like Ulfberhts and stuff, albeit details vary.

THIS IS A LIE.  Japanese iron deposits are some of the highest grade on Earth.  Source:  My wife is a geologist(BS)/chemist(BS)/geochemist(MS)/Soil and crop science(pending PhD).  I'm done giving a damn about what anyone says about the sword or the smiths but I will not tolerate this kind of willful ignorance.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 10:16:09 am
You shouldn't expect Paradox to know how to balance games

Instead of trying to make AI balanced by being smarter, they try to make AI balanced by making them far more powerful with cheats
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 10:24:22 am
Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Their steel was shit, as in it was hard to make it into a sword, not that the finished product was bad, and the easiest way to get it right was folding, IIRC. Europeans did the same thing in early middle ages with like Ulfberhts and stuff, albeit details vary.

THIS IS A LIE.  Japanese iron deposits are some of the highest grade on Earth.  Source:  My wife is a geologist(BS)/chemist(BS)/geochemist(MS)/Soil and crop science(pending PhD).  I'm done giving a damn about what anyone says about the sword or the smiths but I will not tolerate this kind of willful ignorance.

This is surprising to me because I have seen many mentions of the opposite over the years.  Questions:

1) When you say they are high grade, are the high grade deposits ones that would have been accessible to pre-industrial japan?
2) Do you know where people would have gotten the idea that the opposite is true? (Seeing as it is so common.)
3) Why did Japan use techniques that are associated with low grade iron like excessive folding?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on July 12, 2016, 10:30:46 am
1) the purity of the deposits is extremely high, having very low (almost trace) levels of intermixing/contaminants, there are very few deposits, but they have been worked since before the shogunate was originally established, I don't have the dates on hand and I don't trust wiki as this has become a stupidly charged topic.

2) the mistake appears to be based on the fact that the largest deposits of iron (I am aware of) in SE Asia are in China, and their iron is massively contaminated with sulpher, or arsenic or whatever, it's really incredibly bad metal.  Edit: I should clarify, some iron deposits are contaminated with sulpher, some with arsenic, and the rest with a weird slurry of assorted metals etc.

2) availability, Japanese (sword)smiths were directly mandated by the emperor, and were allowed only a specific amount of ore in their lifetime.  So they developed the technique to minimize the amount used while maximizing its functionality.  There are a few incidences where the emperor (typically under direction of the Shogun) increased the allotment for wartime usage.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 10:34:50 am
Sounds legit to me.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on July 12, 2016, 10:37:03 am
Any suggestion for a nice challenge then mainiac?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 10:40:31 am
Any suggestion for a nice challenge then mainiac?

Poland and Gaunxi are fun but after that there are no more worlds to conquer, Alexander.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 10:43:00 am
You can always play spehss 4x
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 10:49:32 am
You can always play spehss 4x

You can even play one of the countless mods that let you be space nazi germany.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 12, 2016, 11:29:17 am
Any suggestion for a nice challenge then mainiac?

Poland and Gaunxi are fun but after that there are no more worlds to conquer, Alexander.
Ryukyu only, no save/loading, final destination
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 11:41:48 am
Not in the game?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 12, 2016, 01:52:57 pm
Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Their steel was shit, as in it was hard to make it into a sword, not that the finished product was bad, and the easiest way to get it right was folding, IIRC.
I'm done giving a damn about what anyone says about the sword or the smiths but I will not tolerate this kind of willful ignorance.
Hot damn son. We're all (armchair) scholars here. You teach, I'll listen.
AFAIK and IIRC are both "don't take my word as canon" addendums.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on July 12, 2016, 01:59:48 pm
Not in the game?
Damn. Then Cuba? I remember it being very shit-out-of-luck on opportunities to break out and do shit.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 02:06:34 pm
Cuba could get strong pretty quickly since the "free ports" national focus has no prerequisites.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on July 12, 2016, 02:13:34 pm
Tannu Tuva or Bhutan were traditional possibilities in HOI 1 and 2. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 12, 2016, 02:23:00 pm
Afaik the katanas are only folded 'cos that's how oldtimeyjaps made steel.
Their steel was shit, as in it was hard to make it into a sword, not that the finished product was bad, and the easiest way to get it right was folding, IIRC. Europeans did the same thing in early middle ages with like Ulfberhts and stuff, albeit details vary.

THIS IS A LIE.  Japanese iron deposits are some of the highest grade on Earth.  Source:  My wife is a geologist(BS)/chemist(BS)/geochemist(MS)/Soil and crop science(pending PhD).  I'm done giving a damn about what anyone says about the sword or the smiths but I will not tolerate this kind of willful ignorance.

This is surprising to me because I have seen many mentions of the opposite over the years.  Questions:

1) When you say they are high grade, are the high grade deposits ones that would have been accessible to pre-industrial japan?
2) Do you know where people would have gotten the idea that the opposite is true? (Seeing as it is so common.)
3) Why did Japan use techniques that are associated with low grade iron like excessive folding?
This guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r4q0reHAC8
has a very good series of videos on the whole katana thing, including ores and metallurgic processes. He looks a bit goofy, but his videos are very well researched and thorough.
Ore is covered in the 2nd one (spoiler: very pure ore in Japanese iron sands - if you've got the technology to separate the two)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 12, 2016, 02:26:03 pm
The Japanese bladesmiths were not pleased to learn about their swords snapping in Mongolian brigandine armor.
How does the sword break after it's been thrust into the armor? Some kind of Mongolian sorcery? What sounds more likely is that the sword would get stuck, and then the attacker would be killed after his victim recovered and struck him a blow. My other question is: what kind of idiot thrusts into the armored part of his enemy?

I belive there is actually retarded variation of Katanas. Fat katanas, slim katanas, light katanas, heavy katanas, longer katanas, shorter katanas and whatever, which supposedly made them useful for various tasks, but that might be just modern thing.
The same way that there is absolutely ridiculous variation in weapons in every other country in the world.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 02:31:52 pm
Not Grand Fenwick!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 12, 2016, 02:34:52 pm
How does the sword break after it's been thrust into the armor? Some kind of Mongolian sorcery?
Take an inflexible piece of metal and jam it into something. If it does not bend, it breaks. The Katana is inflexible, so it breaks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 12, 2016, 02:35:02 pm
Thrust into a joint. Blade stopped by leather or what have you underneath. Yank sword or hold on as armor wearer moves. Blade snaps.

That's what I remember reading, at any rate.

Also, yeah, there were many variations on the katana. Almost kinda like there were many variations on the European swords. How strange.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 12, 2016, 02:52:57 pm
How does the sword break after it's been thrust into the armor? Some kind of Mongolian sorcery?
Take an inflexible piece of metal and jam it into something. If it does not bend, it breaks. The Katana is inflexible, so it breaks.
If that's true, then why would someone who uses a katana ever thrust into his opponent's armor? If your sword breaks, you die, so you would do everything in your power not to do that.

Thrust into a joint. Blade stopped by leather or what have you underneath. Yank sword or hold on as armor wearer moves. Blade snaps.

That's what I remember reading, at any rate.
But your previous narrative contends that this was somehow unique to Mongolian armor. How? Was this same situation you paint impossible with Japanese armor?

And personally I think someone would lose their grip before the sword could ever break. Swords hardly ever broke in people's hands. If someone hits your sword the force will cause your sword's tip to move or the grip to leave your hand before the full force of a blow could impart itself and enable the blade to be broken.

Relevant: Trying to break an inflexible sword with sword blows. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFRxZod-iI0)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 12, 2016, 03:09:22 pm
For good swords, you're correct. They were not good swords at the time of the mongol invasions. That was my point. They were shit, because they were not primary weapons whatsoever.

It was a very short set of battles, too, so it's not like they had much opportunity to learn, especially given that the Mongols fought so dishonorably (which is to say, they didn't engage in miniature duels on the battlefield as the Japanese had been accustomed to doing).

It wasn't unique to Mongolian armor. It was semi-unique to their specific type of armor. They had brigandine(layers of leather with metal plates or rings) armor, not the plates of early retainer armor. It's much thicker in terms of material, which means more grip and opportunity for it to break. You misread my narrative, or I was unclear. I was just trying to say that it was during the Mongol invasions that they got that wake-up call. There was a drastic overhaul in swordsmithing techniques following that, and the blades of what we think of as the Samurai era were of a far higher quality, at least for families who could afford them. Mind you, they weren't ridiculously amazing. High quality, yes, probably higher quality than the typical European swords if only by necessity/selection bias, since they were status symbols and there was so much less iron available to work with(only the best smiths were hired, basically, even more so than with Europe, at least for cavalry sabers(which is what katana are, I'll remind you)). But the edge was brittle, and chipped easily, requiring sharpening quite often.

Hindsight is 20/20.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on July 12, 2016, 03:26:15 pm
Dont you know?  In WWII US marines targeted the guys with the katana's first.

Was that 20% of US Marines or did it vary compared to Marines shooting at non-sword carrying individuals, bayonet carrying individuals, and bayoneted machine-gun carrying individuals?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on July 12, 2016, 03:29:55 pm
I was referencing a dank meme, yo. (https://1d4chan.org/wiki/Katanas_are_Underpowered_in_d20)

But I imagine that most Marines would prioritize shooting the guys with the Katanas, i.e. the officers, given the chance.  Not that I imagine they really were that discriminating in their targets.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 12, 2016, 03:30:47 pm
I'd assume... Sword-carrying officers?
It's like not having easily-readible pips. Snipers love a gold star.


Edit: ninjad
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 12, 2016, 06:16:56 pm
I belive there is actually retarded variation of Katanas. Fat katanas, slim katanas, light katanas, heavy katanas, longer katanas, shorter katanas and whatever, which supposedly made them useful for various tasks, but that might be just modern thing.
The same way that there is absolutely ridiculous variation in weapons in every other country in the world.
The point was that there isin't just a single version of katana that was used for 200000000 years straight with no variation.
I think.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 13, 2016, 12:27:03 am
I figure if a katana is too short it's a wakizashi, if a katana is too long it's a no dachi.
Everything in-between is katana.

There also may have been widely different old katanas, but I daresay they'd have been melted down in the sword hunts
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: TheDarkStar on July 13, 2016, 01:20:01 am
Does it have a handle and a blade? If so it's a katana. Cutlass? No, katana. Claymore? No katana. Fencing sabre? No, katana. Lightsaber, no - it's also a katana. Cooking knife? Also a katana.

I have no idea what actually defines a katana other than it being a kind of Japanese sword.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 13, 2016, 01:24:26 am
Japanese curved, single-edged sword, >60cm long blade, two-handed grip, and a bunch of other distinctive features like the handguard.
Really, if it looks like a katana then it's proably a katana of some sorts.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 13, 2016, 01:39:25 am
If you cannot hold it without wobbling back and forth trying to keep yourself from getting cut, it's probably a no-dachi, aka samurai claymore.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 13, 2016, 01:57:31 am
If it's made from two seperate pieces of metal? I don't think any other swords do that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 13, 2016, 02:06:52 am
If it's made from two seperate pieces of metal? I don't think any other swords do that.
What?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 13, 2016, 02:20:37 am
IIRC Katanas are made from two different types of steel. The hard steel forms the edge, and the soft steel forms the back. They weld them together before quenching.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on July 13, 2016, 02:30:42 am
Isin't that like... the basic technique of swordmaking? Like, any slightly sophisticated sword is going to be softer in middle and harder at the edges.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on July 13, 2016, 02:41:42 am
Normally tempered in one piece, not welded.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on July 13, 2016, 09:11:23 am
For Japanese blades, it's also the way it was cooled that produced that effect. (Tempering is differential heating, not differential cooling)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: TheBiggerFish on July 18, 2016, 09:37:43 pm
Ooh, big thread I haven't PTWed yet.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 19, 2016, 12:51:40 am
Yep. High quality blades (Basically everywhere, mind you, not just Japan) have different tempers in the edge and spine.

There's also Damascus, but that's different, and also not exclusive to anything much aside from the actual town of Damascus apparently having some interesting impurities in their iron for a few centuries.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Max™ on July 19, 2016, 05:08:37 am
Don't be so rough on katanas though, the meme is funny and it's true they weren't wonder weapons and that majority of them were dog shit, but some of them, the expensive ones, were actually pretty good. I am not arguing that it was actually used as main weapon, but there is only so many ways you can fuck up a sharp metal stick and I refuse to belive they were as bad or as good as memes make them out to be. The truth is proably somewhere in between.
No, the truth is they're good for slicing peasants and drawing on a charging Mongolian, that's where it ends. You take a weapon that's used as a shite sidearm, forget how to make it in three dark ages, stick with the same design for 1300 years and what have you got? A shit inflexible sword whose purpose is romanticism and policing
Course, with modern metallurgy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHsfGWkO7SM) you can do some neat stuff. I like the stupid tough tool steels myself. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHm_pJceN5Q) Though I doubt you'll find someone doing that with one of the pretty L6 swords. (http://summerchild.com/hc_dragonL6.htm) Nothing magical or mystical or superior about the katana though, it's a toy in this day and age, and those same steels will produce crazy durable blades in any shape you like. Key words being "shape you like", if you like them, cool, if not, cool. All I wanted growing up was a stick I couldn't break, closest I got for years was a fiberglass pickaxe handle that I carved a grip into, until I saw the polypropylene bokkens (https://www.amazon.com/Cold-Steel-Bokken-Polypropylene-Handle/dp/B0009QRRUG?ie=UTF8&*Version*=1&*entries*=0) (which also come in waster form!), still want one of the pretty hickory ones (http://kingfisherwoodworks.com/mm5/merchant.mvc?Screen=PROD&Store_Code=kf&Product_Code=iwamals&Attributes=Yes&Quantity=1) but $20 vs $120 is a significant difference for something I'm going to use for smashing brush out of the way.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 19, 2016, 09:32:35 am
Pretty sure you'd have more fun with a machete.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Max™ on July 19, 2016, 09:40:46 am
They are fun, but you don't understand: I have found the best stick, the one which breaks all other sticks. This was literally a dream as a child, reinforced each time I found a good stick which ended up breaking later on. Was I a weird kid? Probably, but the scuffs and scrapes and whatnot on that hunk of black plastic make me happier than hacking through brush with a machete has, not to mention: I can break a machete, short of getting tools and deliberately trying to saw through this bokken I don't know how to break it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on July 19, 2016, 09:56:10 am
True. I grew up at cattleyards where the ol-fashioned length of poly-pipe was a staple. We managed to break a few, but considering the density differences I could see that bokken being a pretty tough nut.

But at the same time, I had more fun with a cane machete going gung-ho on cacti.

Then, the Internet happened.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Max™ on July 19, 2016, 10:15:01 am
Yeah, the poly pipe lengths were always contenders, but the bokken ones are ridiculous, the biggest gouge on it was when I was clearing back some of the thorns in the brush on the other side of the fence next door and discovered an old bent over metal fence post.

*CLONG*

It's not even a mm deep looking at it now, but I was alarmed because it was such a sudden shock (it was all covered over in fallen vines and brush which usually just gives) and that usually means broken stick, this stick don't care. I loves it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on July 19, 2016, 11:51:12 am
This is dead interesting, listening to you talk about sticks. Tell me more about sticks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 19, 2016, 12:51:20 pm
There are a bunch of beavers near my house, so if I walked along the waterfront or the edges of the swampy bits I could be all-but-guaranteed a nice, almost-straight stick, neatly severed at the ends and cleared of all bark in an attractive pattern. I sure went through a lot of them, willow shoots being willow shoots, but it was very convenient.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Max™ on July 19, 2016, 01:16:47 pm
There are a bunch of beavers near my house, so if I walked along the waterfront or the edges of the swampy bits I could be all-but-guaranteed a nice, almost-straight stick, neatly severed at the ends and cleared of all bark in an attractive pattern. I sure went through a lot of them, willow shoots being willow shoots, but it was very convenient.
Oh god I loved finding a bunch of beaver shorn branches, little bastards are not just cute, but handy!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on July 19, 2016, 01:39:50 pm
Exactly!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on September 09, 2016, 12:26:58 pm
So, LCS program is getting axed and converted into de-facto conventional frigates. (https://news.usni.org/2016/09/08/results-new-lcs-review-departure-original-vision#more-21511)

Quote
Gone is the emphasis on modular systems and crewing, a complicated manning arrangement that would have three crews rotate between two hulls and mixing the two different types of hulls in East and West coast homeports.

Instead, the Navy will divide 24 planned LCS into six divisions of four ships each – three divisions of Freedom-class ships based at Naval Station Mayport, Fla. and three divisions of Independence-class LCS based at Naval Station San Diego, Calif. – commander, Naval Surface Forces Vice Adm. Tom Rowden told reporters on Thursday.

Each of the divisions will be tasked, crewed and equipped with a specific LCS mission – mine countermeasures (MCM), surface warfare (SuW) and anti-submarine warfare (ASW). Each hull will be manned by two crews – blue and gold – like the service’s nuclear ballistic and guided missile submarines.

Some people are quite vindicative of that result (http://www.defense-aerospace.com/article-view/release/176873/us-navy-drops-lcs-plans%2C-concept-after-latest-failures.html):
Quote
PARIS --- After spending billions of dollars, the US Navy has finally abandoned the Littoral Combat Ship concept, saying it will turn the first four LCSs into training ships and that all future vessels will be equipped for a single combat mission.

Although deliberately worded to minimize its import, the US Navy statement below is a clear acknowledgement that the LCS concept has been an abysmal failure.
But, even as it looks to mitigate the disastrous effects of having ordered a dozen LCS at once, before checking whether they performed as claimed (they have not), the Navy makes no mention of having found the technical faults which have struck four LCS ships this year.

In the statement below, the Navy announces it is abandoning the LCS’ most prized objectives (interchangeable mission modules; innovative but complex crewing arrangements) which were supposed to turn inexpensive small ships with small crews into potent combatants in coastal regions.

By turning the four Littoral Combat Ships it has commissioned to date into training ships, the Navy is also admitting they are operationally worthless.

So the LCS concept is a total failure, and the billions of dollars spent so far have been wasted, despite each one having cost about half a billion dollars.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: mainiac on September 09, 2016, 12:51:59 pm
Trust the US to figure out how to make a cheap, simple concept complex and expensive.  :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 09, 2016, 01:03:05 pm
Trust the US to figure out how to make a cheap, simple concept complex and expensive.  :P
Hey, Dolly Parton said it best: it costs a lot of money to look this cheap. ^_^
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on September 09, 2016, 01:40:14 pm
Trust the US to figure out how to make a cheap, simple concept complex and expensive.  :P

USA USA USA
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on December 12, 2016, 04:08:44 pm
As an armchair general...
I fail to see the benefits of giving aid(for humane/any reason) when sieging an enemy entrenched with a civilian population.  I am of the opinion that giving the civilians aid also means giving the enemy aid.  They could take the aid directly from the civilians, end up directly getting some of that aid, and/or they simply have less people to provide for.

I guess a 'ceasefire' is fine... as long as nothing gets in or out.
Another topic is the stuff in the news about letting enemy combatants leave.  They shouldn't be allowed to leave to fight another day, they can end up reinforcing/taking some other place, where the same thing can happen all over again.  Their surrender should be unconditional.


Prompted by all the news condemning siege conditions in the MiddleEast/Aleppo/wherever.  Plus, you could say my ethical/moral compass is very wide.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 12, 2016, 04:21:21 pm
Giving aid and making sure you control what is photographed, filmed or interviewed and when can be great for publicity.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 12, 2016, 04:25:53 pm
Unless you're trying to starve them out, giving aid greatly helps the civies and won't help them that much, unless you're including bullets in your aid package.

As for letting them leave rather than forcing unconditionnal surrender, it's usually because it's much easier to negotiate a deal where they leave, so you don't have to spend as much time hunting them down in a city, killing people.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on December 12, 2016, 05:32:03 pm
Unless you're trying to starve them out, giving aid greatly helps the civies and won't help them that much, unless you're including bullets in your aid package.

As for letting them leave rather than forcing unconditionnal surrender, it's usually because it's much easier to negotiate a deal where they leave, so you don't have to spend as much time hunting them down in a city, killing people.

Yep. It's important not to win your siege and lose the war, especially when public opinion in the appeal to citizenry and real countries is a major part of the war.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on December 12, 2016, 05:45:51 pm
Unless you're trying to starve them out, giving aid greatly helps the civies and won't help them that much, unless you're including bullets in your aid package.

As for letting them leave rather than forcing unconditionnal surrender, it's usually because it's much easier to negotiate a deal where they leave, so you don't have to spend as much time hunting them down in a city, killing people.

Yep. It's important not to win your siege and lose the war, especially when public opinion in the appeal to citizenry and real countries is a major part of the war.

Except Assad evidently doesn't care about public opinion very much.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on December 12, 2016, 05:56:06 pm
Unless you're trying to starve them out, giving aid greatly helps the civies and won't help them that much, unless you're including bullets in your aid package.

As for letting them leave rather than forcing unconditionnal surrender, it's usually because it's much easier to negotiate a deal where they leave, so you don't have to spend as much time hunting them down in a city, killing people.

Yep. It's important not to win your siege and lose the war, especially when public opinion in the appeal to citizenry and real countries is a major part of the war.

Except Assad evidently doesn't care about public opinion very much.

Depends on what sort of public opinion, but yeah.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on December 12, 2016, 06:08:32 pm
Unless you're trying to starve them out, giving aid greatly helps the civies and won't help them that much, unless you're including bullets in your aid package.

As for letting them leave rather than forcing unconditionnal surrender, it's usually because it's much easier to negotiate a deal where they leave, so you don't have to spend as much time hunting them down in a city, killing people.

Yep. It's important not to win your siege and lose the war, especially when public opinion in the appeal to citizenry and real countries is a major part of the war.

Except Assad evidently doesn't care about public opinion very much.
He still does provide aid to some civilians in enemy-held territories, though. (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/12/aleppo-syria-assad-214494) He doesn't care about opinion of people who back his enemies, yes, but he still takes care to maintain the semblance of... not legitimacy, but rather, normalcy, to his people:
Quote
The government has survived a failed revolution because it provides what the rebels can never do—a consistent wage and the promise of a modicum of governance. The regime deftly understood early on that it was necessary to preserve the façade of normalcy. The fate of Libyan leader Mu’amar al-Qadhafi provides a stark contrast. After Qadhafi lost the eastern half of his country in a matter of weeks in 2011, he severed rebel held areas from regime-held territory. He cut off the mobile telephone networks. He ceased providing government services there. Qadhafi was under attack and he ensured that all Libyans knew this.

But Assad drew from a different playbook. He continued paying government salaries to civil servants in rebel territory. Utilities such as electricity and water were only cut off in the most besieged of territories. And the government tried its hardest to make residents forget a war was raging outside their cities. Assad has certainly starved out his enemies (food shortages have been a way of life in places like Aleppo for years and shipments of emergency rations have even been intercepted in rebel enclaves such as Daraya outside of Damascus) in ways reminiscent of World War II. But Assad has justified it to his supporters and fence sitters as a necessary move to stomp out the foreign jihadists threatening their existence. While his critics in the West scoff at such claims they resonate among a population that looks around the Middle East and only sees chaos when governments are toppled in the name of freedom and democracy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on December 12, 2016, 09:04:51 pm
Unless you're trying to starve them out, giving aid greatly helps the civies and won't help them that much, unless you're including bullets in your aid package.

As for letting them leave rather than forcing unconditionnal surrender, it's usually because it's much easier to negotiate a deal where they leave, so you don't have to spend as much time hunting them down in a city, killing people.

Yep. It's important not to win your siege and lose the war, especially when public opinion in the appeal to citizenry and real countries is a major part of the war.

Except Assad evidently doesn't care about public opinion very much.

Depends on what sort of public opinion, but yeah.

The rebels at Aleppo did take all of the food and medical supplies for themselves first and rationed the rest of it out to the civilian population, but that isn't super surprising. It's the bullets that matter, and a big part of why the remainder of the pocket fell so quickly is that the rebels were extremely short on ammunition, to the point where the crazier rebel groups were literally attacking the less crazy ones to get more.

And the SAA (and besiegers in general) allowed the defenders safe conduct if they surrender because it's much easier to drive them out in a green bus than clear them out of fortified positions in the city, and if they know they have no way out they'll fight all that much harder.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 12, 2016, 11:51:48 pm
Starving the defenders means starving the civilians too, and that's unacceptable.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on December 12, 2016, 11:55:33 pm
Starving the defenders means starving the civilians too, and that's unacceptable.

In modern times at least, but the whole point of a siege is often to simply outlast the enemies food (and possibly water, if it can be choked off) supplies.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 13, 2016, 01:36:43 am
You could hope that the besieged military forcefully taking food and water from the civilian population could result in a hostile population?
But I somehow doubt that ever goes anywhere.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 13, 2016, 01:58:32 am
Starving the defenders means starving the civilians too, and that's unacceptable.

In modern times at least, but the whole point of a siege is often to simply outlast the enemies food (and possibly water, if it can be choked off) supplies.
I know what a siege is. If the civilians actually belonged to the defenders, it would be another story entirely, but that's not the case here. Not everyone in that city is friendly with the rebels.

I was under the impression at first that the Russians and Syrians were actually helping these people, but they're not, they're just attacking. Fair enough. That's probably the best way to help these people. Apparently the rebels are also actively preventing people from leaving (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-13/aleppo-civilians-fear-punishment-from-government-forces/8114618) and going somewhere safer.

This doesn't seem like a situation where you could actually supply these people who are cut off seeing as how apparently everyone who could leave has run away (around 100,000 people), but allow me to explain my position anyway. My stance earlier was that, given a situation where you can either:
A) Starve the enemy, but also starve civilian hostages who don't support them, and in return you win faster.
B) Supply the enemy, but keep civilians they have hostage from starving to death, and you prolong the battle.

I would choose B. The key word for me here is hostage. These are not the enemy's tax payers, they're bystanders. If the civilians are undeniably on the enemy's side, and they're not fleeing when they know combat is about to happen because they can't or don't want to, they don't deserve to be killed or raped when you take over the city, but if they starve as a side effect of winning the battle and not any direct action, then that's as acceptable as things get when it comes to war. That's how I'd prefer they die; only after all reasonable attempt to keep them alive without undermining the conflict too heavily.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the enemy is trying to work the hostage tactic and the Russians are bombing them anyways, and both sides get to look bad. Oh well.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Dozebôm Lolumzalìs on December 13, 2016, 02:05:44 am
I belive there is actually retarded variation of Katanas. Fat katanas, slim katanas, light katanas, heavy katanas, longer katanas, shorter katanas and whatever, which supposedly made them useful for various tasks, but that might be just modern thing.
The same way that there is absolutely ridiculous variation in weapons in every other country in the world.
The point was that there isin't just a single version of katana that was used for 200000000 years straight with no variation.
I think.
Whoa whoa whoa. 20, 000, 000, 0? 200, 000, 000. Two hundred million years ago. That was the end of the Triassic.

DINOSAUR KATANAAAAAA
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 13, 2016, 09:08:51 am
Japan is the land of Katanosaurus Keks.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 13, 2016, 10:42:17 am
T-rex wants a really long katana that he can use with his short babby arms.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 13, 2016, 10:47:10 am
T-rex wants a really long katana that he can use with his short babby arms.
He'll be looking for a Nodachisaurus.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Eric Blank on December 13, 2016, 05:58:10 pm
Tanto teeth
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 15, 2016, 08:31:12 am
As an armchair general...
I fail to see the benefits of giving aid(for humane/any reason) when sieging an enemy entrenched with a civilian population.  I am of the opinion that giving the civilians aid also means giving the enemy aid.  They could take the aid directly from the civilians, end up directly getting some of that aid, and/or they simply have less people to provide for.
Using aid to entice your enemy into surrendering is good. There is the issue however of witholding aid from your citizens who are being held hostage by the enemy, how you keep them supplied without the supplies ending up in the hands of your enemy is a difficult dilemma to solve.
I can't really think of one, I suppose the only ethical thing to do is kill the enemy occupation as quickly as possible to minimize the disruption to ordinary life for civilians caught in the crossfire, or else abandon the siege entirely and allow the enemy occupation to consolidate their hold over your territory
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 15, 2016, 08:43:40 am
Problem appears when your enemy is so deranged that your aid is a sign of weakness for them.
It should be noted that the only way an COIN operation is going to be 100% succesful is literally worse-than-Hitler military police and executions for slightest sign of breaking the law, to the point of literal genocide.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 15, 2016, 10:47:59 am
Problem appears when your enemy is so deranged that your aid is a sign of weakness for them.
It should be noted that the only way an COIN operation is going to be 100% succesful is literally worse-than-Hitler military police and executions for slightest sign of breaking the law, to the point of literal genocide.

Which is why the nazis never had any opposition in the territory they controlled. Oh wait.

But frankly, I don't see the issue with letting enough food through that everyone in the besieged area can eat. It's not like the rebels are regaining HPs when they eat a sandwhich or anything.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 15, 2016, 12:33:21 pm
Which is why I said worse than Hitler. And, all things considered, they would have finally succeed if not for external help.
I mean, all my crazy mad patriotism and shit, but Warsaw didin't have any real way to continue after Germans burnt it to ground (which was exactly what Russians wanted, because they would have to face the same problem as Germans otherwise). At some point there are only two choices - die or bend over for the invaders, and most people come to the conclusion that survival might be better idea than getting wiped out completly.
And Nazis were quite flawed because they did it because of racist and such reasons, not pure "we want to win" reasons - if they executed people involved in opposing them instead of just some random jews the message would be much more "do not oppose us so we can have peace and law" rather than "do not oppose us so we can murder you all anyway".
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 15, 2016, 12:37:38 pm
Which is why the nazis never had any opposition in the territory they controlled. Oh wait.
But frankly, I don't see the issue with letting enough food through that everyone in the besieged area can eat. It's not like the rebels are regaining HPs when they eat a sandwhich or anything.
Starving Spartans couldn't resist well-fed Athenians, despite training their whole lives for war. There is a very intrinsic difference between an enemy that cannot eat and an enemy that has eaten
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on December 15, 2016, 04:00:35 pm
Problem appears when your enemy is so deranged that your aid is a sign of weakness for them.
It should be noted that the only way an COIN operation is going to be 100% succesful is literally worse-than-Hitler military police and executions for slightest sign of breaking the law, to the point of literal genocide.

Which is why the nazis never had any opposition in the territory they controlled. Oh wait.

But frankly, I don't see the issue with letting enough food through that everyone in the besieged area can eat. It's not like the rebels are regaining HPs when they eat a sandwhich or anything.

It sends a weird message. 
1: Start an armed revolt
2: Take control of a population area
3: Manage to entrench yourself
4: Get a lifetime guaranteed free food shipments from the gov't you are rebelling against or some international organization
4a: Maybe eventually have weapons/ammo/stuff smuggled in with the food
5: ????
6: .... ????  Declare city-state independence or something?

I guess we could send food to Best Korea.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 15, 2016, 09:12:09 pm
You can entrench yourself, but that doesn't mean you have endless supplies of ammunition. The rebels require ammunition, food, water, and medical supplies. The civilians require food, water and medical supplies. You don't let arm shipments in there, and eventually they run out of bullets, and there's a minimum of civilian suffering. Considering these are ideological groups, not giving them food is a very good way of giving them rhetorical ammunition. 'See, the West/gov't doesn't care about you! They hate any notion of resistance to their domination, and care not who may suffer as a result; why else would they refuse even such basics as food for the city?'

Plus, you know who starves first in a siege? Not the people with guns. So the effectiveness is much reduced.

But yes, that is the typical way rebellions work, though on a larger scale. 4a is doing a lot of work on a flimsy proposition in your scenario. Not that you can't smuggle shit, just that I don't think it's that simple or common as to justify starving out the civilian populace as well.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 15, 2016, 09:36:31 pm
Problem appears when your enemy is so deranged that your aid is a sign of weakness for them.
It should be noted that the only way an COIN operation is going to be 100% succesful is literally worse-than-Hitler military police and executions for slightest sign of breaking the law, to the point of literal genocide.

Which is why the nazis never had any opposition in the territory they controlled. Oh wait.

But frankly, I don't see the issue with letting enough food through that everyone in the besieged area can eat. It's not like the rebels are regaining HPs when they eat a sandwhich or anything.

It sends a weird message. 
1: Start an armed revolt
2: Take control of a population area
3: Manage to entrench yourself
4: Get a lifetime guaranteed free food shipments from the gov't you are rebelling against or some international organization
4a: Maybe eventually have weapons/ammo/stuff smuggled in with the food
5: ????
6: .... ????  Declare city-state independence or something?

I guess we could send food to Best Korea.

You know Best Korea does get food, right?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Zangi on December 15, 2016, 11:32:04 pm
I don't believe my stance really changes.  (I had forgotten that Best Korea gets aid...)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 16, 2016, 04:51:34 am
Considering these are ideological groups, not giving them food is a very good way of giving them rhetorical ammunition. 'See, the West/gov't doesn't care about you! They hate any notion of resistance to their domination, and care not who may suffer as a result; why else would they refuse even such basics as food for the city?'
The likelihood of Christians or Shiites joining the jihadists to whom their first introduction was "jizya, wives and death" is very small

Plus, you know who starves first in a siege? Not the people with guns. So the effectiveness is much reduced.
Conversely the people who are fed first by aid? The people with the guns, so the effectiveness is much reduced while the combat effectiveness of the enemy is maintained

But yes, that is the typical way rebellions work, though on a larger scale. 4a is doing a lot of work on a flimsy proposition in your scenario. Not that you can't smuggle shit, just that I don't think it's that simple or common as to justify starving out the civilian populace as well.
Seems simple when you are fighting an enemy unbound by laws to end them as quickly as possible
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 16, 2016, 07:19:59 am
The relative effectiveness of 'saturate the area with food so everyone can manage to eat' versus 'starve them out so the civilian populace starves first in the hope that this will make a difference in the fighting ability of terrorists with rocket launchers'.

People will do crazy shit when they're hungry. Though, wasn't really talking about either of those groups, was more talking about the folks who support the same stuff the terrorists do, but aren't actually radicalized. Win the battle but not the war if you always forego public image.

Seems simple, yes. Sadly, little is; for one thing I think it may be a war crime to starve a civilian population, though I'm not certain. I mean, hell, if you really wanted to end them as quickly as possible and don't care about civilian life or public opinion, we do have access to tactical nuclear weapons.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 16, 2016, 07:36:55 am
The relative effectiveness of 'saturate the area with food so everyone can manage to eat' versus 'starve them out so the civilian populace starves first in the hope that this will make a difference in the fighting ability of terrorists with rocket launchers'.
Saturating the area with food puts your own people at risk, reduces your supplies whilst increasing your enemies for certain. This is compared to a strategy of starving your enemy to death, actively reducing their fighting capabilities. How will it not make a difference? Simple thermodynamics, poorly-fed soldiers do less.

People will do crazy shit when they're hungry. Though, wasn't really talking about either of those groups, was more talking about the folks who support the same stuff the terrorists do, but aren't actually radicalized. Win the battle but not the war if you always forego public image.
The ones who live in the countryside? Most of the Sunnis who support the same stuff the terrorists do are as much a problem as the terrorists, there isn't much difference between someone who wants to cleanse Syria of Shiites and Christians versus someone who is actively cleansing Syria. At any rate, those groups live in the countryside, not the city

Seems simple, yes. Sadly, little is; for one thing I think it may be a war crime to starve a civilian population, though I'm not certain.
Nah, it's not unless it's a deliberate act of genocide or something. In the context of besieging a city, it's a very common occurrence - cities are some of the greatest military targets and objectives in war, and for a military force there are only three options for taking one occupied by enemy forces. The first is street to street fighting that will cost your forces much in lives, the second is besiege it until the defenders are demoralized and incapable/less capable of mounting resistance and the third is do some WWII strategic bombing (freedom the city off the map).

I mean, hell, if you really wanted to end them as quickly as possible and don't care about civilian life or public opinion, we do have access to tactical nuclear weapons.
Yeah and we'd also start WWIII by using them, so we can't do much. We're also not the ones besieging these cities, it's the Russian-Syrian-Iranian coalition that is besieging them. The Syrian army is bled dry of soldiers, the Iranians probably could afford it, the Russians certainly can't (especially after their Afghanistan experience), so besieging and utilization of their air superiority is the method that guaranteed highest chance of victory (certainly looking at how they recaptured Aleppo - did work as intended). Moreover a tactical nuclear weapon would kill all of your civilians, if they were populated with your enemy and aiding their war effort such as in Germany, in such a case where total survival was in question yeah that'd be arguable. Simply cutting off supplies to your enemy would be the far more precise tool though, and would guarantee more of your own people surviving, whereas sure a tactical nuclear weapon would kill your enemy but it'd also kill all of your people too. Usage of a nuclear weapon against your own people would guarantee that your public opinion is destroyed; it is also wrong to say there is no care for civilian life or public opinion, merely no care for the public opinion of people who want to exterminate you and are unlikely to change their mind in addition to how civilian life will not be protected under the occupation of an enemy force that wants them exterminated. Starvation will kill many of them, but most will survive - liberation does more for PR than letting your enemy fight (http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/12/12/497619/aleppo-liberation-celebration-syria)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 16, 2016, 10:39:15 am
Usually the enemy surrenders before they actually start dying of starvation. That's the desired goal and what's been proven to happen over the course of human history when a force runs out of food.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 16, 2016, 08:34:05 pm
It's what happens with forces not driven by religious fervor, typically. Though a slow martyrdom is often far less appealing than a fast one.

But Loud Whispers has a point, as much as I dislike the idea of the collateral damage. If the city's people don't support the terrorists, they're as likely or more to be killed by them as they are by starvation, and the threat of such may drive them to fight back to try and be liberated faster (or at least that would be the hope).

I think I was under a different impression as to the population of the city than is the reality; I was thinking they were people neither actively supporting nor being oppressed by the occupiers. Essentially with no stake either way; this is obviously inaccurate, and my fault for not actually thinking through the specifics of this situation. Apologies.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 17, 2016, 12:45:23 pm
But Loud Whispers has a point, as much as I dislike the idea of the collateral damage. If the city's people don't support the terrorists, they're as likely or more to be killed by them as they are by starvation, and the threat of such may drive them to fight back to try and be liberated faster (or at least that would be the hope).
They're more likely to keep to themselves, try and hide from the fighting and conserve their energy
It's not a desirable thing to do without regard, as in all likelihood it's the children who will starve to death first, but it is the method most likely to end a siege
*EDIT
Huh, surprisingly few child deaths, overwhelming majority of deaths are adult men. I guess they give their supplies to their kids before themselves (http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/martyrs/1/c29ydGJ5PWEua2lsbGVkX2RhdGV8c29ydGRpcj1ERVNDfGFwcHJvdmVkPXZpc2libGV8ZXh0cmFkaXNwbGF5PTB8cHJvdmluY2U9Nnw=)
Interestingly there is 1 recorded death for siege in Aleppo. Most deaths appear to be from airstrikes, shelling, shooting, field executions and executions. I suppose the lethality of cutting a cities' supplies off would increase over time though

I think I was under a different impression as to the population of the city than is the reality; I was thinking they were people neither actively supporting nor being oppressed by the occupiers. Essentially with no stake either way; this is obviously inaccurate, and my fault for not actually thinking through the specifics of this situation. Apologies.
It's a complicated situation, for example there are many Sunnis in Aleppo who are family members of the FSA, while the FSA itself starting off as army defectors ended up dominated by jihadists. Within that branch were groups that "only" wanted supremacy of Sunni Islam whilst others actively wanted to purify Syria
Then there's ones like the Army of Conquest which is supported by Saudi Arabia (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-crisis-turkey-and-saudi-arabia-shock-western-countries-by-supporting-anti-assad-jihadists-10242747.html) that are very blatant (https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-opposition-forces-massacre-kidnap-120-civilians-southern-hama/) in their cleansing (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/06/11/activists-al-qaida-nusra-front-kills-20-members-druze-sect-in-syria.html) of minorities or taking of hostages (https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/islamists-agree-hand-corpses-civilians-massacred-northern-homs/). Given that Al-Qaeda and ISIS led the forefront of the government opposition (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syrian-civil-war-can-assads-regime-survive-the-onslaught-from-isis-and-jabhat-al-nusra-10317350.html) it's safe to say that the minority populations were forced to support the Syrian regime, take up arms themselves like the Kurds or else just try and keep their heads down and pray. Given how outnumbered the Syrian army was and how close it was to extermination before the Iranian and Russian intervention (indeed, one could argue, still is), its besieging of Aleppo has done it more good in the PR department than damage - most people will side with the victor, and by winning the economic capital of Syria, the regime is proving to undecided citizens that it still can win. Shit's pretty fucked

I think in a battle between two forces that weren't fighting wars of survival, one would really think twice about completely cutting off supplies to a town or city they intended to administer in future. I guess it's situational?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 17, 2016, 02:36:29 pm
But Loud Whispers has a point, as much as I dislike the idea of the collateral damage. If the city's people don't support the terrorists, they're as likely or more to be killed by them as they are by starvation, and the threat of such may drive them to fight back to try and be liberated faster (or at least that would be the hope).
They're more likely to keep to themselves, try and hide from the fighting and conserve their energy
It's not a desirable thing to do without regard, as in all likelihood it's the children who will starve to death first, but it is the method most likely to end a siege
*EDIT
Huh, surprisingly few child deaths, overwhelming majority of deaths are adult men. I guess they give their supplies to their kids before themselves (http://www.vdc-sy.info/index.php/en/martyrs/1/c29ydGJ5PWEua2lsbGVkX2RhdGV8c29ydGRpcj1ERVNDfGFwcHJvdmVkPXZpc2libGV8ZXh0cmFkaXNwbGF5PTB8cHJvdmluY2U9Nnw=)
Interestingly there is 1 recorded death for siege in Aleppo. Most deaths appear to be from airstrikes, shelling, shooting, field executions and executions. I suppose the lethality of cutting a cities' supplies off would increase over time though
Well, don't forget that most deaths would not be directly due to starvation; disease and infection are much more likely to kill if they don't have access to medical supplies and/or personnel and their immune systems are weakened by hunger.
I think in a battle between two forces that weren't fighting wars of survival, one would really think twice about completely cutting off supplies to a town or city they intended to administer in future. I guess it's situational?
Aye, that's probably about what I was thinking of. Sieges work, certainly, but if you're fighting people who can return to guerilla operations and could use the siege as a recruitment device, it seems risky. If you're in existential crisis mode, where you need to beat them right fucking now or very likely die, the long-term consequences seem more acceptable, somehow.

I definitely agree that shit's pretty fucked, tho
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on December 17, 2016, 03:38:11 pm
Usually the enemy surrenders before they actually start dying of starvation. That's the desired goal and what's been proven to happen over the course of human history when a force runs out of food.
It's what happens with forces not driven by religious fervor, typically.
Not (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad) always. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_the_Siege_of_Leningrad_on_the_city) Maybe typical, but certainly not the only possible outcome. The risk of running a siege is that sometimes your enemy is willing to call your bluff.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 17, 2016, 04:40:12 pm
Well, don't forget that most deaths would not be directly due to starvation; disease and infection are much more likely to kill if they don't have access to medical supplies and/or personnel and their immune systems are weakened by hunger.
I had a flashback to the ME thread and recalled actually there were towns where the same siege tactics had an immense effect on the militants and civilian populace
Mass starvation kills surprisingly few, but the emaciated survivors surviving on grass and aid are not exactly what I'd refer to as "healthy." (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/09/madaya-siege-starvation-syria-aleppo-united-nations) Or for that matter, long for life. Looking at them I'd say starvation would probably kill them before disease; it very much is a case of the length of the siege or in more serious cases, the starving not counting as the dead. It would be useful to describe them as casualties, as though they are not yet dead, they are pretty incapable of doing anything.
Sadly for them, the strategy works in forcing enemies into surrender (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/26/daraya-surrenders-to-assad-regime-after-four-years-of-siege-and/). Only so much fighting you can do when your capability to fight has ceased to exist. Interestingly in the telegraph article they show the backlash against the rebels for surrendering, with one guy defending their surrender with this: “Those who didn't live under siege can't judge how it looks like.” I'm intrigued why the rebels are expected to fight to the death, and the backlash isn't wholly directed against the Assad regime.

Aye, that's probably about what I was thinking of. Sieges work, certainly, but if you're fighting people who can return to guerilla operations and could use the siege as a recruitment device, it seems risky. If you're in existential crisis mode, where you need to beat them right fucking now or very likely die, the long-term consequences seem more acceptable, somehow.
I definitely agree that shit's pretty fucked, tho
It doesn't seem risky if the city is occupied, as at that point what matters is not what their trending social media narrative is, but neutralizing/destroying the enemy
I recall one instance where a BBC reporter in Afghanistan witnessed Al-Qaeda launch a mortar attack that ended up tearing off this kid's leg, his father was absolutely distraught - convinced that the Americans had bombed him, because Al-Qaeda said so. On a very practical level though any state will want to minimize the damage to itself, as it will have to stop fighting some day, and that won't be possible if everyone's in no state to work and their cities are irreparably ruined

Not (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad) always. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect_of_the_Siege_of_Leningrad_on_the_city) Maybe typical, but certainly not the only possible outcome. The risk of running a siege is that sometimes your enemy is willing to call your bluff.
Who would run a siege as a bluff? Moreover Leningrad the Germans failed to completely cut off all supplies to Leningrad, whose citizens were already fighting to the death. Without Finnish aid and with their forces spread between Leningrad, Moscow, Sevastopol etc. they were not able to capitulate on any advances or weaknesses, fighting a war of attrition they could ill afford to fight. One of the greatest benefits of this strategy is that it forces the enemy to surrender, however this incentive is completely erased when your side is offering two options:

Moreover Stalin's ruthlessness ensured that what meagre supplies the Leningrad forces had was put to good use. Food, water, fuel and medicine was prioritized to soldiers, civilians were left to fend for themselves. Deserters were to be executed on the spot and Soviet "anti-retreat detachments" would complete the encirclement of trapped soldiers and citizens, by killing anyone who tried to flee the siege. This left all Soviet soldiers with no option for retreat, no option for surrender, no option for survival - only the chance to fight viciously with backs to the wall or die slowly in the cold. Stalin was pretty lucky the Nazis didn't show mercy to his soldiers, defection would have been a very real threat otherwise
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 21, 2016, 05:15:17 am
Every other country in the world simultaneously gets tired of our shit and declares war on the United States of America. What is the result of this?
Assume that nobody wants to use nukes, every other nation forms a coalition of some sort, so they don't fight amongst themselves, and that Trump is currently the president.

This is an attempted discussion transplant from Ameripol, feel free to ignore me.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 21, 2016, 05:32:42 am
Who would run a siege as a bluff? Moreover Leningrad the Germans failed to completely cut off all supplies to Leningrad, whose citizens were already fighting to the death. Without Finnish aid and with their forces spread between Leningrad, Moscow, Sevastopol etc. they were not able to capitulate on any advances or weaknesses, fighting a war of attrition they could ill afford to fight. One of the greatest benefits of this strategy is that it forces the enemy to surrender, however this incentive is completely erased when your side is offering two options:

I want to add, that Leningrad could have been conquered or the siege could have been more complete. It was a question of not wanting to do that(from the Finnish side). Marshal CGE Mannerheim, Chief of Staff of the Finnish Army and later President of the Republic, was a former General Major in Russian Army and commander of his majesty's bodyguards, Ulan regiment. Having achieved good defensive positions on Karelian Isthmus some 20 km from Leningrad and nearly overextended supply lines in East Karelia, Mannerheim and his staff refused German demands to advance further into Soviet Union at that front or bombard Leningrad.

Had Leningrad been conquered or sieged more completely in 1941, perhaps the war would have been won, but Mannerheim and his generals wanted to play carefully. Taking part to genocide or destruction of Leningrad would probably have been very bad for international reputation, and Soviet Union would not have forgotten it. You cant change geography and all that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on December 21, 2016, 05:34:08 am
One factor that occurs to me is whether there is simply an equivalent to the chemical weapons policies in WW2, or nuclear weapons are considered nonrelevant and ignored.

If the stockpiles still are considered necessary to deter opponents using them, that has some potentially significant differences from a scenario where the nuclear assets can be safely converted to conventional warheads. Nonnuclear ICBM and SLBM strikes still have the potential to be pretty bad, not to mention thermobarics and deployed stealth bombers, but if nukes are still considered relevant, any long range missile launch is going to be seen as a potential act of escalation and incredibly dangerous.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 21, 2016, 05:42:36 am
There's no way to tell if an icbm has a nuclear warhead or not from early warning radar.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 21, 2016, 05:48:59 am
Well, it depends, if its not a massive launch, you could witheld your nuclear return fire because (especially with SSBNs) the risk of the enemy taking out your retaliatory capacity is low.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 21, 2016, 05:55:55 am
I strongly suggest for this scenario we either vanish nukes entirely or assume that all nuclear powers also possess secret and fully effective ABM shields. Anything else just makes this immediately turn into "but how bad is nuclear war, really"?

That said, I'd almost support the latter version now that I think about it, as it also denies nonnuclear ballistic missiles while opening up the possibility of taking down the ABM shield and unleashing Armageddon. Or just having the US immediately burn every nation in the world not under a shield.

That also brings up a secondary question. What is the state of the world regarding America in this scenario? Are all other national bodies committed to bringing down the United States or is the entire population of the world except Americans seeking it? And what happens to Americans abroad?

Further, what are the win conditions for each side? Does the United States have to force a formal surrender, conquer everything, or just render the rest of the world militarily impotent? Does the world have to force the United States to surrender, occupy it by force, or exterminate the American people?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 21, 2016, 06:30:36 am
Even if America had a flawless missile shield and could even somehow stop SLBMs, firing off a bunch of nukes would be unwise still if only because it would lead to increased radiation worldwide (as happened due to above ground nuclear testing in the 20th century), increasing cancer rates, etc.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 21, 2016, 10:44:30 am
Every other country in the world simultaneously gets tired of our shit and declares war on the United States of America. What is the result of this?
The USA loses, because of fucking course the combined military of every country in the world are eventually going to stomp the USA.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 21, 2016, 10:49:01 am
Every other country in the world simultaneously gets tired of our shit and declares war on the United States of America. What is the result of this?
The USA loses, because of fucking course the combined military of every country in the world are eventually going to stomp the USA.
"In the first six to twelve months of a war... I will run wild and win victory upon victory. But then, if the war continues after that, I have no expectation of success."
-Attributed to Isoroku Yamamoto
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 21, 2016, 11:03:05 am
America has a very, very strong Navy. 10 (or 19?) aircraft carriers compared to a combined 12 in the rest of the world, and most of them don't come close to matching the capability of the best American aircraft carriers. I foresee a long naval conflict that the USA could reasonably win, in the sense that they would have free reign of the oceans, but the USA just doesn't have enough ships to stop the enemy from supplying ground attacks from Canada and Mexico. Depending on how much of the US fleet survives they could do a good job harassing supply lines stretching up from as far as South America. But America has no friends in this scenario. That means no trade at all. This is crippling in the long term. There is no way that America could win when everyone is against them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 21, 2016, 12:41:51 pm
Yeah, the economic situation is the killing blow that'd be inflicted on the US. Sure it has one of the largest and most advanced militaries but without the resources to keep it supplied with replacement equipment and spare parts it'd lose on sheer attrition alone. It'd probably have some initial successes moving into canada and mexico but there wouldn't be much of a way for it to solidify those gains.

And given the resources and manufacturing capabilities of the UN (Better to use this than rest of the world, it's easier.), any naval supremacy by the US will be on a time limit with a lack of spare parts on the US side being the most crippling issue, combined with the fact the UN fleets will just have numbers and strategic mobility on their side.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on December 21, 2016, 04:43:55 pm
One advantage the US has here is that the US has a coordinated military, while the EU/Russia/China does not. A further disadvantage is the the rest of the world lacks in the ability to project power across the Atlantic, although the US will certainly lose a lot of material with all those bases. A lot of NATO will be crippled without support from the US, but perhaps Russia and China can help them out (if they are willing). But then what? The question about win-conditions seems obvious: How is this supposed to go? I imagine the first steps will be overrunning US bases across the world (although the situation in Korea and Japan will be interesting), while the US overruns Canada and Mexico. What happens then?

Honestly I highly doubt Canada or Mexico would ever join such an exercise in the first place, unless the US was turned against itself in civil war, or it was some massive first-strike. Otherwise, they'd basically be condemning themselves to near-immediate military occupation: Canada because it's population is so much smaller and more vulnerable, and Mexico because while much, much larger (although still one fifth of total US forces), it's also poorer and worse organized. Then what? I imagine the two countries would negotiate some sort of deal, with them turning into puppets or collaborators or something (saves the US the trouble of occupying them). That radically changes the situation: the majority of US foreign trade is with it's neighbors, and once they are secured it's a lot harder to strike at the US economy in that manner. Of course that assumes that neither Mexico or Canada decide to go into guerilla warfare, but that's hard to predict (I can't imagine it'll be much worse in Mexico than it is already lol). After that, it's debatable how much farther south the US military will march (at least in the initial phases). I can see the Military going so far as Panama to secure that objective, but going into Venezuala would require more planning then sweeping through Nicaragua and defenseless Costa Rica (another question: why would these countries also ever go to war, especially Costa Rica? They literally have no military, they'd have no reason to do so). Most of the Carribean would also be seized.

(also Wikipedia informs me that Iceland has no military of it's own and is protected by the US military, so they'd probably also be occupied swiftly).

But beyond securing the initial borders all I can see happening is Fortress America. There might be more serious fights in places where US troops are already abundant (particularly Japan, whose entire self-defense force is roughly equal in size to the US military presence on the Islands; at a minimum, the US would seize Okinawa prefecture, and be reinforced by whatever troops could be evacuated out of South Korea) and maybe the US will hold on to a few of those areas, but beyond that the US is separated from the rest of the world by big oceans, and can reasonably expect to not collapse from trade due to the occupations of Canada and Mexico. It's a war that would stretch on almost indefinitely, with the involved countries more likely to collapse from civil conflict than to be taken out by military occupation (unless you live in Canada or Mexico). This really only seems like an exercise in inflicting unimaginable pain and suffering upon the world. If it's total war, the US will cripple international trade and the rest of the world will inflict the same on the US, but then they'll just sit and glare at each other from across the Bering strait and Panama. It would have to end in some sort of Kaiserreich-esque "Peace with Honor" arrangement for it to not drag on forever.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 21, 2016, 04:53:47 pm
Surely the USA would only need to destroy Canada, Mexico, Russia, UK, Japan, France, Singapore and Australia and then there would not be anyone actually capable of taking the fight to the USA anymore?
Ignoring the collapse in international trade and all, the USA itself would be untouched whilst the USA could foray out at their own discretion, and I'm not sure those combined nations would be able to launch a first strike on US soil without running face first into the US navy
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 21, 2016, 06:14:25 pm
Surely the USA would only need to destroy Canada, Mexico, Russia, UK, Japan, France, Singapore and Australia and then there would not be anyone actually capable of taking the fight to the USA anymore?
Ignoring the collapse in international trade and all, the USA itself would be untouched whilst the USA could foray out at their own discretion, and I'm not sure those combined nations would be able to launch a first strike on US soil without running face first into the US navy
N a h.
I mean, the logistics of attacking USA and getting away with it and whatnot aside, you don't neccessarily need aircraft carriers. While, yes, air power would be a big, naval battles could be won without it (anti-air capabilites aside, the main way of hurting ships is pretty much the same when it comes to ships and planes - hueg anti-ship missiles), and all it takes is gettin a foothold on American continent - it doesn't even have to be USA, just some place in America where you can set up your own airfields and then just quickly rebase (while cross-Atlantic/Pacific flights are not something that all modern fighter planes can achieve, there are much closer pieces of America to other continents). Russians could easily get in accross Alaska, French Rafale is ~4k kilometers which is the distance of France to America, ferry range of Eurofighter is also something like that. Australia and Japan are trickier, since Pacific, but I guess if we're already dreaming of someone attacking America, you can as well make them go through Alaska or Antarctica.

Also, purely a food for thought - Poland uses American F-16s and MiG-29s and Su-17, their ferry range is 4,220 km/2,100 km/2,300 km. In any case, we would have to use a part of conquered Western Europe to get to America, but this way we would only be able to use the American planes (sweet irony, USA falling to their own planes... nearly a national sport of theirs, though), but we could also get through the whole Russia and attack America through Alaska and be able to use the Russian planes too.
It should be noted that Winged Hussars have night unlimited range and can strike at any time at any point in world thanks to their superior horse fuel capabilities and perfectly calculated wingspan.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 21, 2016, 08:53:29 pm
Speaking of which, the technology side of things bears looking into. All of America's foes will likely be coordinating weapons research if possible, while America will also be ramping up research into things like anti-ship missile defenses.

Unfortunately, Winged Hussars are outcompeted by Eagles, whose larger wingspan and piercing cry easily penetrates their metal hide.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 21, 2016, 10:54:41 pm
Surely the USA would only need to destroy Canada, Mexico, Russia, UK, Japan, France, Singapore and Australia and then there would not be anyone actually capable of taking the fight to the USA anymore?
Ignoring the collapse in international trade and all, the USA itself would be untouched whilst the USA could foray out at their own discretion, and I'm not sure those combined nations would be able to launch a first strike on US soil without running face first into the US navy
N a h.
I mean, the logistics of attacking USA and getting away with it and whatnot aside, you don't neccessarily need aircraft carriers. While, yes, air power would be a big, naval battles could be won without it (anti-air capabilites aside, the main way of hurting ships is pretty much the same when it comes to ships and planes - hueg anti-ship missiles), and all it takes is gettin a foothold on American continent - it doesn't even have to be USA, just some place in America where you can set up your own airfields and then just quickly rebase (while cross-Atlantic/Pacific flights are not something that all modern fighter planes can achieve, there are much closer pieces of America to other continents). Russians could easily get in accross Alaska, French Rafale is ~4k kilometers which is the distance of France to America, ferry range of Eurofighter is also something like that. Australia and Japan are trickier, since Pacific, but I guess if we're already dreaming of someone attacking America, you can as well make them go through Alaska or Antarctica.

Also, purely a food for thought - Poland uses American F-16s and MiG-29s and Su-17, their ferry range is 4,220 km/2,100 km/2,300 km. In any case, we would have to use a part of conquered Western Europe to get to America, but this way we would only be able to use the American planes (sweet irony, USA falling to their own planes... nearly a national sport of theirs, though), but we could also get through the whole Russia and attack America through Alaska and be able to use the Russian planes too.
It should be noted that Winged Hussars have night unlimited range and can strike at any time at any point in world thanks to their superior horse fuel capabilities and perfectly calculated wingspan.
If the entire world is against the USA, then that means Mexico and Canada too. There are already "footholds" on the continent. There need not be an opposed landing or a suicidal hike across the Alaskan landscape (seriously, invading through Alaska is not an option).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on December 21, 2016, 11:38:35 pm
Another set of questions relates to orbit.

Are the satellites immediately shot down, robbing all major powers of orbital surveillance?

Does this cause crippling Kessler Syndrome, preventing new orbital infrastructure? Does it not?

Is orbital militarization relevant? ("Space marine" drop-pods, rods from god, ETC.)

Also, non-nuclear WMDs?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 21, 2016, 11:48:00 pm
Space is expensive, yo. Rods from god would be much more expensive than just nuking the joint, and about as effective. It's not as simple as "dropping it from orbit", you have to expend a significant amount of fuel to put it there, and again to get it back down. Remember that space agencies try to keep stuff as light as possible, and the whole point of using tungsten poles is that it's heavy.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 22, 2016, 12:29:03 am
Currently the only nation that has capability of reliably shooting down a satellite and doing it more than once or twice is the USA. Even that only goes for LEO sats though, and not all military satellites are there. For example missile launch detecting sats are mostly at geostationary, and theres at least 50 or so of them alone.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on December 22, 2016, 12:42:19 am
China at least has the capability, and Russia might as well. On paper, at least, since nobody has ever actually field tested an anti-satellite missile. Just because they only have a couple of those missiles now doesn't mean they wouldn't be able to produce more down the line, and it's not like the satellites are going anywhere.

And it's worth remembering that the entirety of Iraq fell in only a couple of weeks, the only reason Canada and Mexico would last longer is that they're a bit larger. Neither of them have a hope to actually stop or even slow down the US military, and any coalition forces that do manage to get past the navy and air force and land there aren't going to be resupplied anytime soon.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 22, 2016, 12:52:11 am
China at least has the capability, and Russia might as well. On paper, at least, since nobody has ever actually field tested an anti-satellite missile. Just because they only have a couple of those missiles now doesn't mean they wouldn't be able to produce more down the line, and it's not like the satellites are going anywhere.

And it's worth remembering that the entirety of Iraq fell in only a couple of weeks, the only reason Canada and Mexico would last longer is that they're a bit larger. Neither of them have a hope to actually stop or even slow down the US military, and any coalition forces that do manage to get past the navy and air force and land there aren't going to be resupplied anytime soon.

ASATs have been successfully test-fired at satellites by all three of those nations.

If USA wants to conquer Mexico, they'll have to fight through and occupy Mexico city too. That'll need a lot of troops, and army is where US relatively at least weakest. I'd say no matter how advanced you are right now in terms of hardware, theres only so much you can do when you have 315 million people vs. over 7 billion and have less than 1/4 of GDP and lack, in long term, resources to keep turning that GDP into civilian consumables and war material.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 22, 2016, 01:10:35 am
China at least has the capability, and Russia might as well. On paper, at least, since nobody has ever actually field tested an anti-satellite missile. Just because they only have a couple of those missiles now doesn't mean they wouldn't be able to produce more down the line, and it's not like the satellites are going anywhere.

And it's worth remembering that the entirety of Iraq fell in only a couple of weeks, the only reason Canada and Mexico would last longer is that they're a bit larger. Neither of them have a hope to actually stop or even slow down the US military, and any coalition forces that do manage to get past the navy and air force and land there aren't going to be resupplied anytime soon.

ASATs have been successfully test-fired at satellites by all three of those nations.

If USA wants to conquer Mexico, they'll have to fight through and occupy Mexico city too. That'll need a lot of troops, and army is where US relatively at least weakest. I'd say no matter how advanced you are right now in terms of hardware, theres only so much you can do when you have 315 million people vs. over 7 billion and have less than 1/4 of GDP and lack, in long term, resources to keep turning that GDP into civilian consumables and war material.

If the entire world were against the USA, there would be nobody to object to the US also going back to the Old Ways of laying siege to any major cities until they surrendered unconditionally (like Assad has been doing in Syria, actually, except one hopes with less genocidal intent).

Methinks Kessler Cascade is a likely outcome of shooting down US GPS satellites, and even if not, the alternative systems would promptly get shot out of the sky by the US, leaving nobody with gps functionality. Besides the economic effects, this would also prevent the use of gps-guided bombs and missiles. Maybe the US would have to go back to carpet bombing?

Quote from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System#Other_systems
Other satellite navigation systems in use or various states of development include:
GLONASS – Russia's global navigation system. Fully operational worldwide.
Galileo – a global system being developed by the European Union and other partner countries, which began operation in 2016[156] (and is expected to be fully deployed by 2020)
Beidou – People's Republic of China's regional system, currently limited to Asia and the West Pacific,[157] global coverage planned to be operational by 2020[158][159]
IRNSS (NAVIC) – India's regional navigation system, covering India and Northern Indian Ocean
QZSS – Japanese regional system covering Asia and Oceania
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Baffler on December 22, 2016, 01:13:48 am
China at least has the capability, and Russia might as well. On paper, at least, since nobody has ever actually field tested an anti-satellite missile. Just because they only have a couple of those missiles now doesn't mean they wouldn't be able to produce more down the line, and it's not like the satellites are going anywhere.

And it's worth remembering that the entirety of Iraq fell in only a couple of weeks, the only reason Canada and Mexico would last longer is that they're a bit larger. Neither of them have a hope to actually stop or even slow down the US military, and any coalition forces that do manage to get past the navy and air force and land there aren't going to be resupplied anytime soon.

ASATs have been successfully test-fired at satellites by all three of those nations.

If USA wants to conquer Mexico, they'll have to fight through and occupy Mexico city too. That'll need a lot of troops, and army is where US relatively at least weakest. I'd say no matter how advanced you are right now in terms of hardware, theres only so much you can do when you have 315 million people vs. over 7 billion and have less than 1/4 of GDP and lack, in long term, resources to keep turning that GDP into civilian consumables and war material.

You're right, hardware isn't everything. A quality officer corps, well trained and disciplined troops, sound strategic planning, robust logistical service, and a solid NCO corps all contribute to how well an army will actually perform. In all of those categories, with the possible exception of logistics, I have very strong doubts you'll find many militaries that match the USA in more than one or two of those. How useful are a bunch of barely trained African villagers given the minimal training their militaries provide actually going to be? How many officers and instructors from countries that actually do have competent militaries can be lent to them? Or how about a decently led but tiny and underequipped continental European army with no ability to project force? How many countries rely on American military advisors? The UK, France, Russia, China, and India are going to be doing the heavy lifting here. And their navies aren't really a match for the USA's. And that's not even accounting for sorties of aircraft from the USA itself on approaching ships. The USA isn't going to occupy the whole world, but it's borders can be secured.

Resources are more of a problem, but even just the strategic resources held in reserve aren't going to run out quickly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 22, 2016, 01:14:54 am
Tomahawks worked fine without GPS in -91. Submarine-launched missiles still use star navigation, because the exact location of the firing platform is inaccurate.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 22, 2016, 01:22:02 am
"Superior training and superior weaponry have, when taken together, a geometric effect on overall military strength. Well-trained, well-equipped troops can stand up to many more times their lesser brethren than linear arithmetic would seem to indicate." - Spartan Battle Manual, Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri

Naturally, the Spartans were usually one of the first two factions to get wiped out in virtually all of my SMAC games.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 22, 2016, 01:26:34 am
The problem with the US navy is that it'll be contending with rapidly expanding navies, and it's far from being able to prevent those shipyards churning out ships. It'll certainly have an initial advantage but that'll rapidly decline as the war drags on.

Same goes for air superiority, only that's going to start off better in the UN's favour to begin with (And still end up being in the UN's favour massively. And thanks to that relative air superiority any invasion the US tries is practically doomed to at least be a significant slog. Add to the fact that the US navy is severely limited in it's strategic options due to losing most of it's naval bases meaning the range of most of it's ships are hobbled in terms of operational range.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on December 22, 2016, 02:07:09 am
If the entire world is against the USA, then that means Mexico and Canada too. There are already "footholds" on the continent. There need not be an opposed landing or a suicidal hike across the Alaskan landscape (seriously, invading through Alaska is not an option).
And tell me, how long is Canada going to last from the declaration of hostilities? Long enough for the major powers to mount a massive reinforcement?

I'm surprised no one picked up on the thread of my "what happens to Japan?" question. It's not like it's a trivial question mind. The fate of the world's third biggest economy is kind of a big deal.

The problem with the US navy is that it'll be contending with rapidly expanding navies.
It's questions like this that make me ask "why the fuck does this war happen in the first place?" and "Precisely how long are we talking about?".

Firstly, the UN can't be involved, the US has veto power there, so some whole new organization has to be formed specifically to combat the US. And for this situation to occur, numerous countries that are either dependent on the US (Iceland, Japan, Phillipines, Israel), or highly vulnerable to the US (Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, literally all of Central America really) have to declare war on the US, knowing precisely how shitty it is going to be because of it. How determined are these countries in the first place? There are real differences if the entire world is dedicated single-mindedly to annihilating every single last US citizen than if, say, the major foreign powers of the world founded a "Coalition of the Willing" of sorts. The latter scenario is actually possible, for one.

Beyond that, I tell you that even best case scenario for total war is "Fortress America." Even if the world resists America like it did the Third Reich (and note, the world did not resist the Third Reich as much as the world is resisting America here! in WW2 you had collaborators and such, neutral states such as Sweden and Switzerland, etc. So whatever caused this fantasy scenario is America being more widely and deeply reviled than Nazi Germany), as long as the US can set up some sort of Vichy Canada (or an "Independent State of Quebec" ala Croatia if Vichy Canada proves unviable) situation, it can hold out for quite a long time due to American trade being primarily with its neighbors.

So then we get back to "What does the world want out of the US?" and "How much is the US/World willing to pay for that?" If the answer is "a decades-long siege" we start getting into the longer-term "Fortress America" ideas, then we enter the realm of fantasy as we discuss what military forces either side could or could not be able to produce in the near-to-distant future. Again, it would be really interesting fantasy, a very good book setting, and if someone wrote that I'd read the hell out of it, but it's not really armchair generaling at that point.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 22, 2016, 02:14:52 am
You're right, hardware isn't everything. A quality officer corps, well trained and disciplined troops, sound strategic planning, robust logistical service, and a solid NCO corps all contribute to how well an army will actually perform. In all of those categories, with the possible exception of logistics, I have very strong doubts you'll find many militaries that match the USA in more than one or two of those. How useful are a bunch of barely trained African villagers given the minimal training their militaries provide actually going to be? How many officers and instructors from countries that actually do have competent militaries can be lent to them? Or how about a decently led but tiny and underequipped continental European army with no ability to project force? How many countries rely on American military advisors? The UK, France, Russia, China, and India are going to be doing the heavy lifting here. And their navies aren't really a match for the USA's. And that's not even accounting for sorties of aircraft from the USA itself on approaching ships. The USA isn't going to occupy the whole world, but it's borders can be secured.

This is very true, training, doctrine, morale and so forth can make great difference. I of course dont think goes for every unit or branch, but I think USA has perhaps prepared a bit too much for fighting an asymmetric warfare since the fall of USSR. Now that is allright itself, you train and prepare for most likely scenarios of course, but preparing for asymmetric warfare is slightly different than preparing for symmetric warfare.

I'll take an example from this year: US 2nd Cavalry Regiment (Stryker) took part to our Arrow 16 excercise last Spring. Good part of the men had combat experience from Iraq and they were naturally well equipped with state of the art stuff.

You can view photos and video of the excercise, some awesome stuff there: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dragoon2scr/albums/with/72157667753049771 and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ghi8iN2zgvU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqYg5CFciEU and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ-RPOgS1E

This excercise showed what an overreliance on equipment and support can cost, to an individual unit at the front any way. Apparently for the first time ever, for the Americans that is, there was radio interference jamming and an enemy more mobile and aggressive than they were. They had serious issues in making decisions on the go with lacking situational awareness on enemy and friends. Way too inflexible and indecisive, and during the first half of the excercise(force-on-force phase) they had their butts whooped multiple times by conscripts and reserve motorized infantry moving on tiny MT-LBs from the 70s.

edit: notice you can turn on subtitles on the videos, they're well translated too
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 22, 2016, 02:21:32 am
The the sake of the scenario, the rest of the world hates america because of magic. The point of the scenario is to answer the question "could America beat every other country in the world at the same time", and that includes countries that have nothing to gain by fighting america.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 22, 2016, 02:22:34 am
I'm pretty sure if every other nation on the planet is at war with the US, the US' veto power isn't going to mean shit in the UN. Probably would need to be re-headquartered though.

And presumably if every nation is at war with the US, any military bases the US had on dependant nations would've likely been closed years prior to the war (Which in the case of israel, is improbable but we're discussing the war itself, not the cause.) in preparation for it to avoid equipment and manpower losses.

And a fortress america is an untenable situation, given the growing air and naval superiority of it's opposition. It won't have the shipbuilding capacity to beat them in quantity and it'd likely lack a lot of resources needed to maintain it's current fleet.

And the problem with domestic trade is that dries up immediately on hostilities, and is unable to reach the levels it did pre-war. Furthermore, it's not the financial side of trade the US would be concerned about as it would be the resources, and you can bet there'd likely be some measure of scorched earth given the relative likelyhood of resisting US occupation.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 22, 2016, 02:23:38 am
-any coalition forces that do manage to get past the navy and air force and land there aren't going to be resupplied anytime soon.
So the American military is going to seize the combined land area of North and South America?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 22, 2016, 02:28:14 am
South america is a bit harder, but for North, pretty much yeah?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 22, 2016, 03:21:00 am
So, a DMZ on the Panama canal?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on December 22, 2016, 04:32:59 am
Filling up the Panama canal with concrete sounds more likely
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 22, 2016, 04:34:52 am
United States pumps money into SpaceX, takes over Mars, becomes Martian invaders 120 years later
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 22, 2016, 04:51:33 am
United States pumps money into SpaceX, takes over Mars, becomes Martian invaders 120 years later

President of Saints/Ultor Media Group becomes President of USA, Ultor settles Mars, then space asshole (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcUBI-YVRY8).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 22, 2016, 07:56:58 am
US against WHOLE world? Barring nukes, I do not think so. First, they would be flooded by men and materiel, whole world against US implies constant terrorist attacks supported by developed countries, constant attacks from inside and outside. At best I can see USA getting into a sort of atrittion war with no major gains, which it would be doomed to lose eventually. Not to mention that a lot of US Armed Forces would findthemselves cut off behind enemy lines.
And the "gun behind every blade of grass" is a double edged sword since US is not a fully unitary so people might want to stick with the rest of the world instead.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 22, 2016, 10:19:22 am
"the entire world fights USA, including best allies and defenseless nations, for no explained reason, but I'm sure some Americans will rebel against their country"

Why? Nobody in this scenario has a motivation for their uncharacteristic (and for some, self-destructive*) actions, and without that it's impossible to predict how anyone will behave.

* or for all because of globalization - international trade etc.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 22, 2016, 10:21:10 am
"the entire world fights USA, including best allies and defenseless nations, for no explained reason, but I'm sure some Americans will rebel against their country"

Why? Nobody in this scenario has a motivation for their uncharacteristic (and for some, self-destructive*) actions, and without that it's impossible to predict how anyone will behave.

* or for all because of globalization - international trade etc.

Foreign nationals living in the US?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on December 22, 2016, 12:24:58 pm
And presumably if every nation is at war with the US, any military bases the US had on dependant nations would've likely been closed years prior to the war (Which in the case of israel, is improbable but we're discussing the war itself, not the cause.) in preparation for it to avoid equipment and manpower losses.
This presumably is not a safe assumption. I, for one, have been operating from "World War three starts completely unexpectedly, as if at precisely 12 GMT, the entire world became possessed of the notion of killing America" because that assumption is no less realistic than "Mighty pacifist Costa Rica decides America needs to be taken down a peg". If the build-up takes years then it's an entirely different question. I assumed the former because we actually know to a limited extent what military forces the world and the US can bring to bear today, whereas what they could bring to bear in the future is more hypothetical and harder to answer.

Foreign nationals living in the US?
Why would they act suicidally? I mean that makes even less sense then Canada invading, somehow. Maybe they don't want to strap a bomb to their chest and run into traffic or be executed by firing squad or abducted by the FBI in the middle of the night or whatever! But perhaps I am being too reasonable here.

I think the scenario is more interesting if not literally every non-American human being on earth is filled with inexplicable bloodlust, but each to their own I guess. Either way, though, I think defining the terms of the scenario is important. It's already such an unrealistic scenario that basic assumptions like "people would rather be alive than dead" are not safe unless actively defined as such.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 22, 2016, 12:35:12 pm
Why would they act suicidally? I mean that makes even less sense then Canada invading, somehow. Maybe they don't want to strap a bomb to their chest and run into traffic or be executed by firing squad or abducted by the FBI in the middle of the night or whatever! But perhaps I am being too reasonable here.[/quote]
Suicidally? Why? If they would succeed they would live, and be set for life since they helped International Peace Mission take down the evil regime of USA, and USA seems to be pretty okay country to run guerilla ops in, since there is a lot of uninhabited secluded space and so on.  And strapping bombs to themselves is already IS/whateverterroristorganization thing, except this time they would be allies with huge industrial powers that have equipment and will to train them, so you would have fanatical muslims doings special operations. Hard to defend against that, TBH.
I think the scenario is more interesting if not literally every non-American human being on earth is filled with inexplicable bloodlust, but each to their own I guess. Either way, though, I think defining the terms of the scenario is important. It's already such an unrealistic scenario that basic assumptions like "people would rather be alive than dead" are not safe unless actively defined as such.
If the question is - can USA defend against any realistic threat to it? - then the answer is yes.
If the question is - can USA defend against literally rest of the world? - then the answer is no.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on December 22, 2016, 02:01:56 pm
If the entire population of the rest of the world decided to assault the United States using human wave tactics, would the US win?

Probably, but only because human wave tactics are obsolete.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on December 22, 2016, 03:33:12 pm
Like super obsolete, holy shit.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on December 22, 2016, 04:22:25 pm
If the entire world declared war on the US, the loss of income for McDonalds alone will bankrupt the US within days.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 22, 2016, 05:30:01 pm
More interesting scenario might be if the US decided to try and take over the entire world, by any means at it's disposal. In said scenario, the rest of the world is not necessarily aware of this yet, and is not necessarily obsessed with destroying United States of America.

How do we go about it, and how long does it take until we either win or are destroyed?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 22, 2016, 06:28:36 pm
I don't think Trump intends to actually take over the world, though he certainly seems like the type to fantasize about that sort of thing.

If the US were actually going to take over the world, it would start by solidification of our island territory and generous buyout offers for other island nations. I totally believe we'd get takers if we tried something like that. You'd then want to move on to even further hyperpower solidification regarding our economics by getting in a Reverse Cold War and being BFFs with China. Then use the US Navy to aggressively wage trade wars against nations that don't accept increasing American transnational influence. The first major territorial gains would be from Mexico. Help destabilize the nation until federal authority collapses entirely, and invade to restore order. Never leave. Pull a Crimean-style referendum to annex increasing parts of the Mexican Occupation Zone until America consumes all the good parts. Also, use the Panama Canal to justify reacquiring the entire nation, stage a terrorist attack or something. We already provide Costa Rica's sovereign protection, use that to occupy.

At some point in all this, you want to start making moves against Canada. Not hostile moves, but as American power becomes overwhelming in the world our ability to sway the Canadian political system would increase rapidly. With the take over the world goal in mind and dedication, in the end they'll come willingly. Once all of North America is under American control, which would take the better part of a century but is far from impossible, we're truly unstoppable. I'll stop there, but that's the idea of how it'd happen. Salami the world into ever-increasing spheres of American control. In say, two to three centuries, it's all done. Sooner if some perfect negation of nuclear weapons can be placed solely in US hands.

If you ever think American foreign policy is a bastard, be glad we try to think of ourselves as liberators instead of conquering overlords...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on December 22, 2016, 07:58:17 pm
Nah, the bit about Canada is inaccurate. Toeing against the Commonwealth should be absolutely the last thing that the US does to take over the world. Back the allies to the hilt, occupy Mexico and the Pacific, then forment crisis with Russia or China. Probably Russia, because that allows European support to be utilized to the maximum. It's not ideal, because China is the larger long term threat, but for the context of the hypothetical, China's long game doesn't mean much.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 23, 2016, 12:58:29 am
Doesn't china currently have the highest manpower military in the world currently?

Also lol @ the commonwealth having any real power any more.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on December 23, 2016, 01:03:56 am
If the entire world declared war on the US, the loss of income for McDonalds alone will bankrupt the US within days.
Nonsense! The domestic sphere will simply grow to supply the new demand. Just repeal everything Michelle Obama has ever gotten her hands on and McDonalds will come roaring back to life with McSquareMeals.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 23, 2016, 01:04:55 am
Doesn't china currently have the highest manpower military in the world currently?

Also lol @ the commonwealth having any real power any more.

I dunno, UK does have a large navy and will soon have 2 proper carriers, and they have fair number of both SSBNs and attack subs, as well as fairly large and modern air force. Tranche 3 Typhoons are right now very likely 2nd best fighters in the world, after F-22. Canada and Australia, that also has a great navy, put together are about the same strength, just without nukes. All Commonwealth countries have relatively weak armies, though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 23, 2016, 01:27:53 am
If the entire world declared war on the US, the loss of income for McDonalds alone will bankrupt the US within days.
Nonsense! The domestic sphere will simply grow to supply the new demand. Just repeal everything Michelle Obama has ever gotten her hands on and McDonalds will come roaring back to life with McSquareMeals.
#McRationPack
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 23, 2016, 05:09:49 am
Nah, the bit about Canada is inaccurate. Toeing against the Commonwealth should be absolutely the last thing that the US does to take over the world. Back the allies to the hilt, occupy Mexico and the Pacific, then forment crisis with Russia or China. Probably Russia, because that allows European support to be utilized to the maximum. It's not ideal, because China is the larger long term threat, but for the context of the hypothetical, China's long game doesn't mean much.
Nothing about that really contradicts my version. As I said, it wouldn't be moving with hostility against Canada, it would be (further) drowning them in our influence. I'd say to combine it with spinning Quebec off, but they'll get pissed off enough to do it themselves and split Canada into two more easily digestible sides.

The ideal is to try to rewind to the mid-90's level of supremacy and then not be satisfied with it. Then just entangle Russia and India ideologically while entangling China economically and culturally. At that point further resistance will prove inadequate and it's just a matter of time.
Doesn't china currently have the highest manpower military in the world currently?
WrONG !!! American Pig-Dog! Manpower supremacy belongs to the almighty People's Revolution of solider workers artists and GREAT GENERAL KIM JONG-UN

lies of capitalisyt world order to destroy kroean people and instal imperaly southernore regime!

PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF KOREA NUMBER ONE america number seven imperalism snow eater
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Bumber on December 23, 2016, 05:16:57 am
If the entire world declared war on the US, the loss of income for McDonalds alone will bankrupt the US within days.
On the other hand the US would declare all foreign debts null, which could probably bankrupt several countries.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 23, 2016, 11:58:02 am
Given the wartime situation that's unlikely to be too much of a concern during the war. Could lead to some nastiness in the treaty on it's conclusion though.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 23, 2016, 01:09:42 pm
First day of the war: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1mlCPMYtPk
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 23, 2016, 04:38:48 pm
N a h.
I mean, the logistics of attacking USA and getting away with it and whatnot aside, you don't neccessarily need aircraft carriers.
Fair point, but I should have been more specific in my phrasing. Launching a trans-atlantic or trans-pacific invasion of the USA is extremely different from attacking the USA, without naval supremacy there is not going to be any reinforcement possible to Canadian or Mexican forces. Germans could attack Britain in WWII, but invasion was impossible until the Royal Navy & Royal Air Force was destroyed - with the US commanding the largest and most modern navies and air forces in the world, with the home advantage, the rest of the world would have to heavily militarize and the destruction of the nations' navies mentioned before would terminate much potential for any reinforcement of Canada or Mexico. The armed civilian populace and paramilitary police of the USA are a formidable enough obstacle before you factor in the US army, Canada and Mexico would not have good chances alone.

Thinking on that, how would Canada and Mexico ensure the best chances of victory against the USA? I reckon defeating any US invasions and ensuring they're not knocked out of the war immediately would count as a high priority objective, though I'm not sure how they could go about it

"Superior training and superior weaponry have, when taken together, a geometric effect on overall military strength. Well-trained, well-equipped troops can stand up to many more times their lesser brethren than linear arithmetic would seem to indicate." - Spartan Battle Manual, Sid Meier's Alpha Centauri
Naturally, the Spartans were usually one of the first two factions to get wiped out in virtually all of my SMAC games.
I've found the Spartans NEED warfare, and ironically, a good series of defeats to keep themselves competitive. Without a strong enemy capable of destroying their troops, eventually they keep producing soldiers until the industrial upkeep terminates their production lines (at least until/if they discover clean reactors). If they're continually harassing and attacking their neighbours then their production lines are kept active whilst their enemies industries are hurt fighting the Spartans' superior forces. Early to mid game Spartans rolling around Planet with missile rovers is a horrifying force to behold, by late game the Spartans are either a rape machine that can only be stopped with the probe warfare of Miriam or Morgan, the worms of Deidre or the industrial Stalingrad of Yang's magical realm - or by the late game, the Spartans ares still stuck with missile rovers whilst Zhakarov is deploying orbital space marines and singularity planet destroyers.

Also lol @ the commonwealth having any real power any more.
The Commonwealth is powerless; the nations of the Commonwealth are powerful. It would certainly be weird if the Commonwealth nations and the USA went to war, you'd get that weird situation where two sides that frequently train each other's soldiers and officers go to war

I dunno, UK does have a large navy and will soon have 2 proper carriers, and they have fair number of both SSBNs and attack subs, as well as fairly large and modern air force. Tranche 3 Typhoons are right now very likely 2nd best fighters in the world, after F-22. Canada and Australia, that also has a great navy, put together are about the same strength, just without nukes. All Commonwealth countries have relatively weak armies, though.
British army has a great deal many elite forces; I just don't see many situations that would actually get the British army from the UK to the USA. Moreover the Caribbean and Bermuda would almost immediately be lost to the USA
It is very hard to defeat the USA
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 23, 2016, 04:47:43 pm
N a h.
I mean, the logistics of attacking USA and getting away with it and whatnot aside, you don't neccessarily need aircraft carriers.
Fair point, but I should have been more specific in my phrasing. Launching a trans-atlantic or trans-pacific invasion of the USA is extremely different from attacking the USA, without naval supremacy there is not going to be any reinforcement possible to Canadian or Mexican forces.
Earth is round. Trans-arctic supply lines to Canada from Russia. There is less ice than years before, but I belive you could still have an continous line from Russian territory to Canadian territory, and while temperatures would certainly be a problem, it's possible and away from American naval forces.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 23, 2016, 05:02:57 pm
Thinking on that, how would Canada and Mexico ensure the best chances of victory against the USA? I reckon defeating any US invasions and ensuring they're not knocked out of the war immediately would count as a high priority objective, though I'm not sure how they could go about it.
Even by Armchair General general standards, I think it's impossible. In the period preceding WWII, the US, UK, and Canada all had plans developed for this exact scenario.

UK Plan: Launch international embargo movement but make preperations to abandon Canada to their fate.

Canada Plan: Send mobile strike force across US border preemptively to harass and slow American military advancement as much as possible, focus all other efforts on forcing the UK into the war by any means. If guerilla war had been codified yet I'm sure that would have been the next step.

American Plan: Destroy Canada. Depending upon circumstances, sail across the ocean and also destroy the UK with assistance from Ireland and Germany. Probably put the Quebecois in concentration camps or something just in case.

That was back when there were still people who were all about how the US was full of shit and could never become a real world power in the face of the proper European empires. I cannot think of any strategy, any way whatsoever Canada or Mexico can put up meaningful resistance to World Conquest America. The guerilla war outlook is a little better, but these aren't far-flung war-embittered nations nor is the scenario one in which the United States needs to try and establish a government for them to attack. Depending upon what levels of brutality you permit for the scenario, the US could just launch unrestricted raids on the population until all resistance ceases.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on December 23, 2016, 05:32:02 pm
Earth is round. Trans-arctic supply lines to Canada from Russia. There is less ice than years before, but I belive you could still have an continous line from Russian territory to Canadian territory, and while temperatures would certainly be a problem, it's possible and away from American naval forces.
There aren't any major ports in Northern Canada for landing supplies in. You'd probably have to build one. Transporting supplies overland across the tundra is also going to be a massive pain in the ass. Only 100,000 people live up there. There's almost no infrastructure.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 23, 2016, 05:39:27 pm
Look mate, it's Russians. If anyone figures out how to supply a besieged place through crapton of ice and snow, it's them.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 23, 2016, 05:42:36 pm
That, and it wouldn't necessarily be resupplying a location in northern canada, mostly using the arctic passage to travel unhindered and without risk of interception. And given that cargo submarines have actually existed it'd be pretty hard to cut those supplies off.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 23, 2016, 05:51:08 pm
Cargo subs, planes, nuclear-powered icebreakers (they reached North Pole, they can reach Canada, also imagine a fucking convoy of cargo ships lead by an icebreaker), they could even supply some on land using those crazy Arctic truck trains.

Also, yeah, you could just go through majority of the journey by Arctic and then under cover of Commonwealth fleet go by Atlantic to major port. Also, it wouldn't be that unthinkable for Canadians to just plop an major military sea port in Hudson Bay (they have some infrastructure in Churchill already, I belive).
As for Russians, either go from Sankt Petersburg through the North Sea (and still be relatviely safe due to proximity of UK and their fleets) or through Murmansk which has a considerably sized port, I belive.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 23, 2016, 07:07:43 pm
Also lol @ the commonwealth having any real power any more.
The Commonwealth is powerless; the nations of the Commonwealth are powerful. It would certainly be weird if the Commonwealth nations and the USA went to war, you'd get that weird situation where two sides that frequently train each other's soldiers and officers go to war
Smirk @ the nazis going to war with China
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 23, 2016, 07:18:19 pm
I don't think Nazis ever actually went to war with China. They ceased support, true, but never did a German soldier fire a shot at Chinese one during WW2.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on December 23, 2016, 10:53:17 pm
If the entire population of the rest of the world decided to assault the United States using human wave tactics, would the US win?

Probably, but only because human wave tactics are obsolete.

You mean zerg tactics.

That kind of only works when you have tons of cannonfodder and don't care about losing said cannonfodder.

Doesn't china currently have the highest manpower military in the world currently?

Also lol @ the commonwealth having any real power any more.

And WAY more people, about a billion more.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 24, 2016, 02:38:26 am
The kind of thing only works if you have more cannonfodder than they have bullets and/or reliable bullet conveyors.
Modern assault rifles would fix that all too quickly.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 24, 2016, 03:04:07 am
The statistic I will remember until the day I die was a thread from somewhere back in 2006 or so where it was calculated that a single invincible and implacable person with an M16 containing infinite ammo could not exterminate the human race due to an inability to overcome the birth rate.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 24, 2016, 03:05:20 am
Does that take into account that as they kill they'd lower the birth rate?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 24, 2016, 03:17:01 am
I don't remember, but this thread went on for literal dozens of pages debating the various effects of an unstoppable mass murderer making their way across the Earth killing all who enter effective range, so I imagine so. The general consensus seemed to settle into it being impossible in any set of circumstances for the godmode shooter to accomplish human extinction or even substantial reduction over any period of time.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 24, 2016, 03:20:00 am
I mean, he could probably damage vital infrastructure, right? Not sure I buy it.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 24, 2016, 03:26:36 am
I don't think so. That basically falls into the same category as "drop nukes on him until he is encased in molten rock, not harming but permanently halting him". It's not really the point of the scenario.

To give you an idea of how this went, I seem to recall at one point there being a cited and sourced discussion of how long one can reasonably expect an average person to survive while being targeted by an experienced marksman with an M16. There were also permutations of granting an M249 and/or global teleportation powers. I don't think there was any tank version, but I'm sure Strife is already furiously working it out in his head upon reading this.

What it comes down to in the end is that it is simply not possible for an individual with a handheld weapon to kill enough people in 24 hours to overcome the birth rate, even accounting for societal disruption and global panic while ignoring the vast number of humans spread out in low-density or isolated areas.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 24, 2016, 04:36:48 am
The math doesn't check out.
An M16 under perfect conditions has a cyclic rate of fire of 950 rounds a minute.
If every shot were a kill shot (which is unlikely) and there was always a ready crowd of people waiting to get butchered (which is unlikely), it would outstrip the world's current birth rate of 250 bpm.

So I guess the 'deranged gunman' idea involves not being able to move fast enough for a proper reaping, or that it takes more than four bullets fired to kill one person, because mechanically alone it's kosher.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 24, 2016, 05:06:47 am
The question isn't of a person with an M16 being propelled down a conveyor belt while executing humanity in a line full auto. It's of a single godmode individual on planet Earth, trying to wipe out humanity as established. They have to travel, or in the improved scenario at least teleport.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 24, 2016, 05:58:44 am
At which point yeah the limits of the gun are going to be the first big roadblock.
Some kind of rotary cannon might work better for that crowd penetration potential.

Also:
"drop nukes on him until he is encased in molten rock, not harming but permanently halting him".
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 24, 2016, 06:46:10 am
I don't think Nazis ever actually went to war with China. They ceased support, true, but never did a German soldier fire a shot at Chinese one during WW2.
They did have German advisors training and fighting with the Chinese
Most of the Chinese soldiers were relatively useless and more concerned with killing Chinese soldiers than fighting the Japanese, but with the exception of a few prominent warlords who relentlessly drilled their soldiers, the German-led armies were pretty ard as nails (https://warisboring.com/that-one-time-the-nazis-helped-china-fight-japan-42ce2fa6c6d#.soejpvouu)

Cargo subs, planes, nuclear-powered icebreakers (they reached North Pole, they can reach Canada, also imagine a fucking convoy of cargo ships lead by an icebreaker), they could even supply some on land using those crazy Arctic truck trains.
Also, yeah, you could just go through majority of the journey by Arctic and then under cover of Commonwealth fleet go by Atlantic to major port. Also, it wouldn't be that unthinkable for Canadians to just plop an major military sea port in Hudson Bay (they have some infrastructure in Churchill already, I belive).
As for Russians, either go from Sankt Petersburg through the North Sea (and still be relatviely safe due to proximity of UK and their fleets) or through Murmansk which has a considerably sized port, I belive.
That would make sense, but still doesn't quite cover the air superiority of the USA
Russia might have enough air dakka but cracking fortress USA is ard
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 24, 2016, 08:46:21 am
They did have German advisors training and fighting with the Chinese
Most of the Chinese soldiers were relatively useless and more concerned with killing Chinese soldiers than fighting the Japanese, but with the exception of a few prominent warlords who relentlessly drilled their soldiers, the German-led armies were pretty ard as nails (https://warisboring.com/that-one-time-the-nazis-helped-china-fight-japan-42ce2fa6c6d#.soejpvouu)
STOP IMPLYING MY HISTORY-FU IS WEAK.
I know that Nazis helped China, the point was that even after Germany allied with Japan and ceased all support to China, they never, ever, actually took hostile action. Sure, yeah, China as part of Allies declared war on the Axis, but there was no fighting between Germany and China specifically.
That would make sense, but still doesn't quite cover the air superiority of the USA
Russia might have enough air dakka but cracking fortress USA is ard
It is, which is why I said it would proably devolve into some kind of modern attrition war (provided noone uses nukes, in which case it's a moot point anyway) where it would boil down to noone getting significant advantage, albeit with constant attacks on rear (special forces, terrorists, Tomahawks and shit) which would finally end up in complete isolation of America, Big Brother-esque internal security. Ultimately, it would result in USA loss, since the rest of world simply has more land, which means more resources and also more people.
Also, a lot depends on how far we're willing to go. Nukes are out in any scenario that implies actual combat, but what about biological and chemical weapons? Russia invested (and supposedly invests) a lot into that and it would significantly impact the war - sure, the troops have NBC gear (but gas mask filters will wear out eventually) but majority of civilian population does not have any real way to protect themselves.
 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Tack on December 24, 2016, 08:49:14 am
I don't think Nazis ever actually went to war with China. They ceased support, true, but never did a German soldier fire a shot at Chinese one during WW2.
They did have German advisors training and fighting with the Chinese.
"With" as in "against", not "alongside". Ninja
However if they also trained the Japanese (which I don't think they did), then that'd be a similar sort of approximation.

But yeah; as an Aussie it'd be interesting to see if we're tighter bound by ANZUS or the commonwealth, although the whole "New Zealand being kicked out of ANZUS" thing probably wouldn't help.

Ultimately, it would result in USA loss, since the rest of world simply has more land, which means more resources and also more people.
If it's "everyone against the USA" sure.
If it's "Cold war boiling over", I'm iffy. There's a reason tensions were so high. The soviets just couldn't keep the pressure on And maintain a stable economy (and didn't try).
But if they'd have attacked say during the Cuban missile crisis... it could've been quite bloody.
This is a specifically "soviets and Canada vs US" type dealie. Resources could probably come in via newfoundland/Quebec, and if an army lands on the doorstep of Pennsylvania then that's a big threat
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 24, 2016, 10:34:12 am
STOP IMPLYING MY HISTORY-FU IS WEAK.
>

I know that Nazis helped China, the point was that even after Germany allied with Japan and ceased all support to China, they never, ever, actually took hostile action. Sure, yeah, China as part of Allies declared war on the Axis, but there was no fighting between Germany and China specifically.
Russia was in the way

It is, which is why I said it would proably devolve into some kind of modern attrition war (provided noone uses nukes, in which case it's a moot point anyway) where it would boil down to noone getting significant advantage, albeit with constant attacks on rear (special forces, terrorists, Tomahawks and shit) which would finally end up in complete isolation of America, Big Brother-esque internal security. Ultimately, it would result in USA loss, since the rest of world simply has more land, which means more resources and also more people.
An attrition war? On what fronts? Really assuming Mexico and Canada are successful on their own, when their chances are not that good without outside interference. This would be exceedingly difficult without the defeat of the USAF and USN

Also, a lot depends on how far we're willing to go. Nukes are out in any scenario that implies actual combat, but what about biological and chemical weapons? Russia invested (and supposedly invests) a lot into that and it would significantly impact the war - sure, the troops have NBC gear (but gas mask filters will wear out eventually) but majority of civilian population does not have any real way to protect themselves.
I suppose unleashing bioweapons in the populated areas of the USA would get the job done but it's potentially MAD
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 24, 2016, 10:40:29 am
An attrition war? On what fronts? Really assuming Mexico and Canada are successful on their own, when their chances are not that good without outside interference. This would be exceedingly difficult without the defeat of the USAF and USN
It wouldn't necessarily be a 'conventional' attrition war, but a lack of material imports would certainly mean that attrition from general use for the US would likely be crippling due to a lack of spare parts.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 24, 2016, 10:53:48 am
Russia was in the way
Yes, and? I mean, this one isin't about what would have been but what was, and what was, was that there was no fighting between Germany and China during WW2, so the claim that it was a fight between army which was trained by the people who now fought against them was wrong.

An attrition war? On what fronts? Really assuming Mexico and Canada are successful on their own, when their chances are not that good without outside interference. This would be exceedingly difficult without the defeat of the USAF and USN
Not that kind, the WWI one, not trenches. I meant it as a war where noone can really make any real gains - even considering that US conquers South America (that's a given, lack of safe supply routes) and Canada (less so, Canadians could easily guerilla the fuck out of Americans and then wait until the Russians and the rest gets there by Arctic), they would be ultimately locked on their own continent and finally outproduced and outfucked by Chinese, Russians and the rest of world.
Sure, America has the biggest economy in the world, but UE isin't that far behind. Throw in the Chinese and you already have about twice the GDP of America.
Sure, the USN would be a problem but in case of global war against US, the Navy would end up being more of pirates and convoy raiders rather than invasion forces so the fighting would be focused in Americas, and USAF isin't that much better in the same way that USN is - there are way more countries with competent air force than countries with competent navies.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 24, 2016, 03:49:31 pm
Just out of idle curiosity, since I've seen it mentioned a couple times: just how is the USA supposed to magically conquer South America without a hitch?  In particular, why is Canada theorized to be so effective at guerilla warfare when all of their major population centers are within miles of the US border in largely flat terrain while South America so ineffective when it's a hemisphere away, requires naval supply open to the possibility of brown-water interdiction (due to terrain in general and the Darién Gap (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dari%C3%A9n_Gap) in particular, there is no overland route that extends all the way from North to South America), and even today still has active guerilla organizations that could form a locus of training and expertise (FARC and Shining Path, for two).  It seems like even with the statement generally being "inevitable defeat," we're still overestimating just how much in the way of actual boots on the ground the US could accomplish.  It's the USN and USAF that are the greatest threats, certainly, but as any foot soldier would point out, those in themselves don't secure land. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 24, 2016, 03:56:49 pm
Canada
Cold. Shitty. A lot of mountains, forests and places where noone lives. Army trained in cold and shit, while US is not. Modern equipment. Supply through  Arctic.
Quote from: Culise link=topic=141793.msg7305608#msg7305608 South America
[/quote
Warm. Shitty. A lot of mountains, rainforests and places where noone lives. Army is a fucking joke. Next to no equipment. No supply.
Sure, yeah, guerilla forces yes. The thing is that Canadians could hold their own in the rough terrain with their army at least until they get help from outside, while South Americans would be forced to use bunch of dudes with pointy sticks jumping out of trees to fight USA, while they would get no help due to USN murdering any tries to supply them (inb4 hue narco-subs hue).
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 24, 2016, 04:12:05 pm
Canada
Cold. Shitty. A lot of mountains, forests and places where noone lives. Army trained in cold and shit, while US is not. Modern equipment. Supply through  Arctic.
Quote from: Culise link=topic=141793.msg7305608#msg7305608 South America
[/quote
Warm. Shitty. A lot of mountains, rainforests and places where noone lives. Army is a fucking joke. Next to no equipment. No supply.
Sure, yeah, guerilla forces yes. The thing is that Canadians could hold their own in the rough terrain with their army at least until they get help from outside, while South Americans would be forced to use bunch of dudes with pointy sticks jumping out of trees to fight USA, while they would get no help due to USN murdering any tries to supply them (inb4 hue narco-subs hue).
South America combined is not "a bunch of dudes with pointy sticks jumping out of trees," and I'd love to see your citation for that.  The Canadian army, numerically, including reservists, ranks somewhere around not South America as a whole, but maybe just Argentina alone, and numbers are going to have a powerful weight in this kind of conflict.  Against the preponderance of force the US can apply in the early years of this hypothetical conflict, especially to its northern neighbor, any "stand-and-fight" mentality is going to result in that army of less than 50k soldiers and reservists melting away in the wind.  Quality-wise, they're far superior than any South American army, but those millions of South American soldiers and guerillas aren't just armed with sticks, and a bullet from an M964 FAL, M4 (which happens to be intended for US standard issue as well), or even an AK-47 will kill someone just as dead as a bullet from a Canadian C7.  The only way either Canada or all of the countries of South America are going to stay in the fight is through guerilla warfare, so don't denigrate it, and don't pretend one side's guerilla forces don't count while another side's do just because the latter's a First World country and the former aren't.  The US is certainly not going to have an easier time conquering an entire continent half a world away compared to a single country right next door. 

Also, how is supply getting over the Arctic in the amount required?  Last I checked, it's kinda covered in ice.  Cargo submarines were mentioned before by you, but these have never been a major part of any nation's naval arsenal due to their inefficiency.  Icebreakers, you mention, but these are basically target practice; break the lead ships and the entire fleet is stranded to be picked off at leisure.  By this general burst of logic, I could go "lol icebreakers" (by analogy to your "hue narco-subs") and say that supply can reach South America by circling Antarctica.  And lo, suddenly South America is magically as well-supplied as Canada.  Besides, in seriousness, there is much more coastline to cover for South America as a whole than there is for Canada, so that's not even such awful logic as one might think. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 24, 2016, 04:49:11 pm
South America combined is not "a bunch of dudes with pointy sticks jumping out of trees," and I'd love to see your citation for that.
Yeah, they're bunch of dudes with M3 Stuarts, with Cessnas for air force and river boats for navy. Sure, they can guerilla all they want in the forest, but without capabilities to hold out the US Army face to face for at least a while it's all matter of conquering the cities and letting the dudes with AK spears run around the forest until they die of old age. The only relatively modern army down here is... Brazil? I think? They have relatively modern tanks, like, Pattons and first generation Leopards, I am kinda sure.
The Canadian army, numerically, including reservists, ranks somewhere around not South America as a whole, but maybe just Argentina alone, and numbers are going to have a powerful weight in this kind of conflict.  Against the preponderance of force the US can apply in the early years of this hypothetical conflict, especially to its northern neighbor, any "stand-and-fight" mentality is going to result in that army of less than 50k soldiers and reservists melting away in the wind.  Quality-wise, they're far superior than any South American army, but those millions of South American soldiers and guerillas aren't just armed with sticks, and a bullet from an M964 FAL, M4 (which happens to be intended for US standard issue as well), or even an AK-47 will kill someone just as dead as a bullet from a Canadian C7.  The only way either Canada or all of the countries of South America are going to stay in the fight is through guerilla warfare, so don't denigrate it, and don't pretend one side's guerilla forces don't count while another side's do just because the latter's a First World country and the former aren't.  The US is certainly not going to have an easier time conquering an entire continent half a world away compared to a single country right next door. 
Yeah, but supply. South America would be pretty much stranded, Canada not.

Also, how is supply getting over the Arctic in the amount required?  Last I checked, it's kinda covered in ice.  Cargo submarines were mentioned before by you, but these have never been a major part of any nation's naval arsenal due to their inefficiency.  Icebreakers, you mention, but these are basically target practice; break the lead ships and the entire fleet is stranded to be picked off at leisure.  By this general burst of logic, I could go "lol icebreakers" (by analogy to your "hue narco-subs") and say that supply can reach South America by circling Antarctica.  And lo, suddenly South America is magically as well-supplied as Canada.  Besides, in seriousness, there is much more coastline to cover for South America as a whole than there is for Canada, so that's not even such awful logic as one might think. 
If you circle Antarctica you still have to get to South America and that's pretty huge distance you would have to cover while having USN on your ass. Canada has a natural cover in Hudson Bay. Also Brits with Battleships, bing bong. In general I'm just pulling shit out of my ass, and utilizing /k/ logic that whoever has better propaganda has better army. Canadians are cool and thus are much better. South Americans are slightly lighter-skinned African warlords.

Also, if enemy already got to get your lead ship, then you will die anyways, encased in ice or not.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 24, 2016, 05:18:15 pm
South america would be easier to supply that canada, if primarily due to just going around the dead zone the USN has via ship range.

And I'm pretty sure more than a few SA nations have modern military equipment like jets and the like. While naval-wise brazil likely has the only one that can operate any distance outside coastal waters they all have more than a few warships to contribute that happen to be somewhat modern at least.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 24, 2016, 05:24:44 pm
The USN death zone is all around the globe unless you have a place where they would have to pass a narrow corridor and something that can stop a fleet.
Like Hudson Bay and Free World Other Than Ameirca (TM) fleet.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on December 24, 2016, 05:27:32 pm
I'm pretty sure the US navy still needs to refuel which does limit ship range. (Sure, the carriers are nuclear powered, but their escorts and support ships aren't.)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on December 24, 2016, 05:59:59 pm
The USN death zone is all around the globe unless you have a place where they would have to pass a narrow corridor and something that can stop a fleet.
Like Hudson Bay and Free World Other Than Ameirca (TM) fleet.
Arctic counts, too - USA doesn't really have icebreakers to move their fleet over the icebergs. Though, since North Pole is kind of a death zone in itself...
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on December 24, 2016, 06:47:37 pm
The USN death zone is all around the globe unless you have a place where they would have to pass a narrow corridor and something that can stop a fleet.
Like Hudson Bay and Free World Other Than Ameirca (TM) fleet.
Arctic counts, too - USA doesn't really have icebreakers to move their fleet over the icebergs. Though, since North Pole is kind of a death zone in itself...
Submarines can operate without significant degradation in polar regions, unlike the traditional surface and aerial countermeasures.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on December 24, 2016, 06:58:10 pm
The USN death zone is all around the globe unless you have a place where they would have to pass a narrow corridor and something that can stop a fleet.
Like Hudson Bay and Free World Other Than Ameirca (TM) fleet.
Arctic counts, too - USA doesn't really have icebreakers to move their fleet over the icebergs. Though, since North Pole is kind of a death zone in itself...
Submarines can operate without significant degradation in polar regions, unlike the traditional surface and aerial countermeasures.

You can't exactly break a path through the ice with a submarine.

I suppose one could could design a sub in a way so as to act like an icebreaker as well, but that'd probably compromise other things it needs.

Canada
Cold. Shitty. A lot of mountains, forests and places where noone lives. Army trained in cold and shit, while US is not. Modern equipment. Supply through  Arctic.
Quote from: Culise link=topic=141793.msg7305608#msg7305608 South America
[/quote
Warm. Shitty. A lot of mountains, rainforests and places where noone lives. Army is a fucking joke. Next to no equipment. No supply.
Sure, yeah, guerilla forces yes. The thing is that Canadians could hold their own in the rough terrain with their army at least until they get help from outside, while South Americans would be forced to use bunch of dudes with pointy sticks jumping out of trees to fight USA, while they would get no help due to USN murdering any tries to supply them (inb4 hue narco-subs hue).

You forget that we have Alaska, and winter in the northern parts of the continential US provides plenty of opportunity for training in cold conditions.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Wolfhunter107 on December 24, 2016, 07:10:14 pm
No, but you can go under the ice, and if you need to surface, you can just go up through the ice
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on December 24, 2016, 07:23:53 pm
No, but you can go under the ice, and if you need to surface, you can just go up through the ice

I know, the US did that all the time during the Cold War, I'm just saying that the subs won't be of any help in getting the fleet through the ice.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 24, 2016, 07:29:12 pm
After a bit of thinking - I actually realized that America would never be able to conquer South America. Farmers in straw hats with guns made in caves out of boxes of scrap is like kryptonite for US Armed Forces Superman.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on December 24, 2016, 07:39:46 pm
They might very well be able to build a strong alliance rapidly, but I don't think conquering territory by force whose population has no intention to stop fighting is something we're very good at, no.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 24, 2016, 10:33:34 pm
South America combined is not "a bunch of dudes with pointy sticks jumping out of trees," and I'd love to see your citation for that.
Yeah, they're bunch of dudes with M3 Stuarts, with Cessnas for air force and river boats for navy. Sure, they can guerilla all they want in the forest, but without capabilities to hold out the US Army face to face for at least a while it's all matter of conquering the cities and letting the dudes with AK spears run around the forest until they die of old age. The only relatively modern army down here is... Brazil? I think? They have relatively modern tanks, like, Pattons and first generation Leopards, I am kinda sure.
The thing is that Canada's going to quickly be reduced to "guerilla[ing] in the forest" as well; there's no way they can stand and fight against a superior force numerically that also has has technological parity, and if they make the attempt, they'll be eradicated long before any aid can ever arrive, either over the Arctic Circle or elsewhere.  If you look at old anti-US Canadian war plans, this is actually something they recognized.  Even their most aggressive plans (the infamous "Defense Plan 1") consisted of spoiling attacks intended only to divert the Americans until aid arrived from the Commonwealth, and this was back before World War 2 when the US military was nowhere near the modern day colossus it is today.  As such, it seems weird to claim that South America's guerilla warfare is somehow a testament to its backwards and incapable nature while Canada's guerilla warfare is a testament to its forward thinking, endurance, and logistical miracles. 

Besides, where are you even going to bring these supplies in?  The large port cities capable of transshipping the necessary supplies to fight a war against a million-strong army are not on Hudson Bay, and any such large concentration of infrastructure is going to be an early and major target in either case precisely because of this sort of threat.  Looking back at World War 2 again, in spite of having a far smaller logistical "tail" than most modern warfare, this sort of thing was what would have scuppered things like Sealion or Operation Green, and was the heart of planning for Torch and D-Day.  Oh, and also, they're hundreds of kilometers away from the Canadian population centers, so you will either need to lug these supplies over the wilderness to the soldiers, or bring the soldiers to the supplies; either increases the risk of overland interdiction throughout the entire process. 

Actually, it occurs to me that Canada is even worse off than South America, because it's already inside the US's coverage envelope; tremendous amounts of US Cold War-era planning was the detection of enemy forces coming over the Arctic, because this was precisely the aerial route that Soviet forces would have taken to reach North America, and submarines moving under the cap was a threat all through the Cold War due to Soviet naval bases at Severomorsk, Murmansk, Zapadnaya Litsa, and elsewhere in the Kola Bay.  If the US has to take over sole operation of NORAD and the North Warning System because they just conquered Canada, well, the infrastructure is already in place to watch for enemy forces coming over the Circle, and the threat of submarine forces will not be discounted; if anything, it will be a greater concern due to the active state of war. 

EDIT:
I'm pretty sure the US navy still needs to refuel which does limit ship range. (Sure, the carriers are nuclear powered, but their escorts and support ships aren't.)
It does, but its myriad global commitments means that it has made a fine art of UNREP.  Ever since World War 2 and the operational needs of the US Navy that pushed them across the Pacific, they've been able to operate more or less indefinitely at sea by operating a dedicated underway replenishment force (the Military Sealift Command generally and the Combat Logistics Force specifically), just as the Air Force has made extensive use of aerial refueling for every historical major conflict since Vietnam.  That does become a possible point-failure source once the rest of the world gets their own navies within a fighting shot of the US, but until then, it will remain a major part of US operational freedom worldwide. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on December 25, 2016, 09:00:22 pm
Different question:


What would WWII have looked like if the Nazis had sided with the Chinese instead of the Japanese?

There already were German instructors and specialists helping the Kuomintang, and Göring apparently was a bit of a China friend anyway. More info here. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-German_cooperation_until_1941)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 25, 2016, 09:09:50 pm
America would not have gotten as involved in the war anywhere as soon, and Germany might have been able to take over Egypt and get access to Oil if they managed to take down the British RAF. Which they would have if they'd kept bombing the airfields and such another couple of weeks rather than switching to bombing London.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 25, 2016, 10:15:23 pm
I wonder.  I don't think favoring China instead of Japan has any effect on either the Battle of Britain or the Battle of North Africa, and I'm not even seeing how the Battle of Britain affects the Battle of North Africa.  For that matter, I'm not even certain of the effect of the Battle of Britain even on the RAF in Britain itself, much less North Africa; the entire month where the Germans were attempting to attack the RAF directly via bombing runs on air fields in the south resulted in the temporary shutdown of a single station (Biggins Hill), which was restored to operational status in two hours.  The problem with the Battle of Britain was never the air fields; even if worse had come to worst, they could and would have redeployed northward to Scotland to preserve their active force, using southern airfields primarily to rearm and repair on the fly.  It was that the Germans could not replenish their losses as well as the British.  Fighting over Britain meant that every parachuting British pilot returned to the fight, while every parachuting German pilot was lost to the war as a POW (if lucky; those who bailed over the Channel or the North Sea, in the brief case of Luftflotte 5's operations) - civilian repair services put almost 5000 planes back into commission between July and December, once they got into gear.  British planes, if damaged, didn't need to fly as far for an emergency landing.  British planes low on fuel or ammunition could rearm and return to the fight without a trip across the Channel.  Crew-wise, German fighter forces tended to have around 50-65% of their operational crews by the raw numbers by mid-September, and in the single month of August, they had lost almost 20% of their actual aircraft frames.  These were all key factors in the reasoning behind shifting to nighttime raids in September, which were less effective.  While the Germans may have managed to do more damage by focusing on the operational destruction of the RAF, it was unlikely to be more than a pipedream, continuing to deplete the cream of the Luftwaffe, and the Germans would have run out of planes before the British did. 

As for how it affects North Africa, I'm not certain.  Rommel, by El Alamein, had already overreached his supply lines.  The Allied air force in theatre had always received obsolete and outdated craft that wouldn't have served well in the air defense of the British Isles, including American lend-lease.  Moreover, they always outnumbered their German and Italian counterparts, even after the deployment of the Afrika Korps.  Key forces in the DAF were never going to be deployed to Britain for political reasons, either (read: the South Africans threw a snit).  Unless the Germans miraculously take far fewer losses than the British, it's unlikely the Regia Aeronautica alone will make up the difference. 

However, as noted, I'm not even certain how a choice to retain the Chinese mission plays into this.  Taking it separately for that reason, it's key to note that the Japanese will enter war with the Western Allies in either case; the political pressures at play (namely that the US does not want to see all of China vanish into Japan's gaping maw, and that the Japanese are still going to see that the British and Dutch are too occupied - literally, for the latter - in Europe to defend their Far East holdings) are not going to disappear just because of the German mission in China.  Indeed, US involvement with China may well actually end up similar to Soviet involvement with Bulgaria; a bit of a "quid pro quo" mutual non-aggression for most of the war where China/Bulgaria doesn't actually declare war on the US/USSR.  German aid to China was rather reliant on the USSR once the Sino-Japanese War began, and thus would end with the onset of Barbarossa in either case.  It was never all that major in absolute numbers as well, and would be unlikely to help tilt the balance of the war towards China any more than US or British aid to China (the Flying Tigers) did (or didn't) historically.  German promises were grandiose, but it's difficult to see how they would have materialized once the Sino-Japanese War began, much less after the European War or Barbarossa.  Likewise, US aid to the UK was operating without any concern for the Japanese, and several US destroyers had already engaged their German counterparts in the North Atlantic before war was declared (most famously, the USS Reuben James was sunk by a German U-boat with the deaths of over two-thirds of its crew); continuing bleeding along these lines would inevitably have brought the US into the war against Germany.  Moreover, US aid to the USSR was also unaffected by the historical war between the US and Japan.  Operating under Soviet flag, the Japanese permitted the shipment of US supplies to the USSR even during the peak of the Pacific War, accounting for half of all Lend Lease to the USSR.  While direct war materiel was not permitted, locomotives, rail stock, trucks, and the like were not considered war materiel, nor were radios, electronic equipment, or canned foodstuffs (read: rations), which all proved invaluable in maintaining Soviet logistics.  I see no reason why ongoing German-Sino cooperation would change this.  The USSR actually gains additional reasons for its ongoing aid to the GMD pre-Barbarossa: now, they're also supporting an ally of their German friends.  They're also simultaneously invading Xinjiang, but those are mere details that also won't change in this timeline, any more than they did historically.  As for Barbarossa, by 1941, the Japanese control most of the Chinese coastline and northern China, the best-trained and most-reliable forces available to Chiang have been destroyed outside Nanjing and Shanghai, and the Chinese have largely completely withdrawn to the western interior.  The Chinese, even moreso than the Japanese, have a very, very good reason to not involve themselves in any invasion of the USSR under these circumstances: they have no ability to do so.  If anything, if the Japanese are sufficiently anti-German, Stalin may authorize an earlier draw-down of the Far East command's strength in order to reinforce the German front.  While the involvement of the Siberian divisions is rather overstated due to reliance on German sources (which notoriously underestimated the USSR - the logic goes "well, we thought they could only raise such and such a number of divisions, but we're facing close to twice that; rather than our assumptions being incorrect, they obviously pulled these extra divisions out of Siberia"), they can't be entirely discounted, either; even the 28 divisions historically transferred were not insignificant, especially as they were already winter-ready and trained for snow operations. 

The biggest major advantage to the Axis, I think, is rather straightforward: the Germans will not declare war on the US after Pearl Harbor.  This buys them a few months to a year in which US is not fully involved in the war, but given how US involvement in the North Atlantic is increasing and the excuse for "Ameri-British cooperation against the Japanese" pushing a cooperative military agenda, I'm hesitant to push it any further beyond that.  I'm not sure, however, how effectively they can capitalize on this opportunity; by December 1941, they're already stuck in the USSR.  Indeed, without the US actively mobilizing for war, the US is actually free to increase Lend-Lease shipments to the UK and USSR even further without diverting supplies to their own armed forces.  As for China itself, the US ends up trusting Chiang even less than they did historically (as hard as that is to believe it possible), but the common enemy of the USSR and ChiComs still likely drives the two together in the post-war world. 

EDIT:
Oh, I thought of something else: tungsten.  Historically, the majority of German tungsten was sourced in China, and without a renunciation of the Chinese mission, that trade would continue for a time.  However, looking it up, the trade collapsed not just because of the diplomatic situation, but also the military situation: with the Japanese capturing most of the ports, China simply couldn't ship its tungsten anywhere.  If Germany sticks with China, Japan won't let Chinese tungsten or German payments cross their front lines to go through the ports.  If Germany sticks with Japan, all the tungsten mines are still in the Chinese interior under Chinese control.  It's rather a horse apiece. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 26, 2016, 12:03:25 am
The continuous bombing of the RAF meant that they could not choose whether or not to respond to a bombing run like they could with London. They had to respond. Their pilots were becoming exhausted, and iirc, the general in charge at the time said that if the attacks on airfields had continued for another few weeks the RAF would be forced to shut down. It was about more than equipment; they were running out of trained pilots. And if the RAF got shut down, they could do an amphibious assault on Britain. How successful that would have been? Who knows. But if Britain falls, US has a much harder time supporting any assault on Europe, if/when it gets involved. And a year or two, given the pace of the war, would have been enough to take over Britain, if it was going to be taken over.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 26, 2016, 01:51:53 am
Well-traind pilots, certainly, but what they had could fly well enough to pose a threat to the Germans.  The number of pilots in the RAF Fighter Command actually increased during the months in question: they went from 1200 in July to 1400 in August and 1500 by mid-September; while it's out of timeframe, this trend continued and hit 1800 by November.  The only numbers that dropped in the months in question were the single-seat fighters available, but even that's a touch specific; Overy notes that the number of total fighters actually went up marginally by 100 fighters on raw strength and 38 serviceable between August and September, a span that includes the week-long massed assaults on RAF airfields from August 24 on.  In fact, it isn't until mid-September that the numbers of available airframes starts to dip even slightly (http://www.battleofbritain1940.net/document-42.html), corresponding (rather oddly, in my opinion) not with the attacks on RAF installations, but with the beginning of the Blitz.  If you adopt the numbers from the 50s and 60s at face value, which neglect replacement rates for pilots or repair rates for aircraft, even then you still have to consider German losses (http://www.battleofbritain1940.net/document-41.html) as well.  In August alone, Germany lost 250 Messerschmitts (about 2:1 ratio between the light Bf109s and heavy Bf110s), and on the bomber side (though I hesitate to add them to what was in large part a fighter campaign), 98 He111s, 75 Do17s, and lumping them together, 167 Ju87s and Ju88s.  That's 25% of their fighters gone in a single month, and all pilots with them; on the bomber side, they stopped committing the Ju87 Stukas because they were sitting ducks.  Even if the British were actually running short of trained pilots, which is somewhat questionable, they have plenty of fresh-faced young graduates coming up to replace them.  The Luftwaffe, we know today, couldn't even manage to replace their losses in either trained or untrained pilots during the Battle of Britain.  They certainly weren't broken, but they took a heck of a beating, and if you want to extrapolate British losses in this brief period linearly without accounting for repair or production (especially the former; old numbers from the 50s-60s on this at least did include production, but only production), it's only fair to do the same to the Germans - they would have been out of the air war before the end of the year, if such a linear extrapolation actually held. 

Still worse, the Axis powers in general had one major deficiency in terms of their pilot training programs that the Allies generally lacked.  In the UK and USA in particular (I'm not so familiar with the USSR, but I believe they had this as well), particularly-capable aces were regularly cycled out of the flying rotation and stationed ground-side to rest, recuperate, and most importantly, train new pilots.  In Germany and Japan, aces were kept flying until they get shot down.  This was probable one of the two major contributors to the unusually high kill tallies for Axis aces (along with separate methods for counting casualties), but it also means that their knowledge and experience is never used to create a new cadre of pilots.  Every fresh pilot put out by the British has much more training than their German counterparts.  Of course, the lack of rest and recuperation had other consequences; German pilots quickly began to develop a particular case of combat fatigue after multiple sorties, made worse by how many of their compatriots were lost. 

Regarding the views of air marshals (not generals) on the ground in 1940, what you say is accurate.  This is one of the major impetuses of the popular view of the Battle of Britain, but unfortunately, it is limited by the knowledge of the British regarding the Luftwaffe in 1940, which we know today to have been quite questionable (the British, obviously, not having access to German archives).  On the British side, the Luftwaffe's effective force in terms of total planes, total pilots, and ability to replenish losses was consistently and significantly overestimated, leading to the perception of a massive force preparing to darken the clouds over Dover, a great push that would wipe the RAF from the map.  That said, German intelligence on the RAF was no better; just as consistently, the Germans thought that all it would take was one big push and, again, the RAF would be wiped from the map.  Unfortunately, the intelligence was flawed as indicated; the British had no idea that the Germans were operating between 45%-65% of their nominal strength while they were fielding closer to 90% squadron effectives, and while in retrospect we know this to be true, given the intelligence failures, it's understandable that the British thought they were so beleaguered when they were nowhere near as close to the brink as they feared.  If nothing else, they still had the reserve air groups (13 and 14) in Scotland, never significantly committed over England, that was always available for scramble if the situation in the south did become dire enough.  Fascinatingly, for a specific example of this kind of error, German errors in intelligence on the No.13 made them believe it was a shell squadron without any actual fighters, which led to devastating losses during the Eagle Day campaign when they sent unescorted bombers across the North Sea (as I very briefly alluded to in my first post) right into their teeth.  The No.13 Group was actually the designated rest squadron for the 11, no less; even during the Battle of Britain, the RAF was never so hard-up that they refrained from regularly cycling exhausted pilots to Scotland and cycling in fresh pilots to replace them. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: misko27 on December 26, 2016, 04:30:07 am
On a totally different note:
And if the RAF got shut down, they could do an amphibious assault on Britain. How successful that would have been? Who knows. But if Britain falls...
I can tell you right now that there is basically no situation in which Germany is able to pull off Sealion. Straight up. It was a terrible plan. Control of the skies is only one of several requirements to pull off a massive amphibious invasion. The US and the Royal Navy, working in Tandem, managed to pull it off; but they were two of the three largest navies in the entire world, and they operated essentially unopposed. There is no situation in which the Royal Navy would not oppose an amphibious invasion of the mainland, even if loss of air superiority meant it cost them massively. The Royal Navy in your situation is banished from south Britain, but the British had planned for this historically; they would have been rebased at Scarpa flow, outside the range of german bombers but well within range to oppose an amphibious invasion.

Furthermore, the Germans simply did not have the capacity, the naval wherewithal to do it. It just didn't exist! Transportation by sea is a massive industry for a reason you know! Docks and ports aren't merely "nice to have" they are basically essential, and there is a reason that the main objective after you secure a beachhead is "secure a port". Hell, even Hitler knew this much: the entire point of the Battle of the Bulge was his attempt to seize a major port and cut the Allies off. Sealion was supposed to be done with River Barges for Christsake! Riverbarges. On the High Seas. The Royal Navy could tip those over by getting too close if they got bored of sinking them from afar. In fact, it's a debate whether they'd even need to do anything: thousands of German soldiers go down to a watery grave just due to weather alone in this scenario. And to have an invasion you need a long, steady stream of troops and supplies. Even if you somehow get a beach-head (which is already a huge debate, but I'll give it to you for the sake of argument), if your supply chain gets interrupted by bad weather or the Royal Navy, all you've done is create a large number of German POWs. And what about Tanks? The much vaunted German Blitzkrieg would have been very unimpressive without their tanks, but, again, river-barges are literally the best the Third Reich had to offer when it came to transporting them, and I don't think I need to explain why that's a problem.

And regardless, even if Germany takes over the skies, I strongly doubt the efficacy of large-scale urban bombing. The British ended up paying the Germans over tenfold when they seized Air Superiority over Germany, and yet I doubt many will argue that the bombing was the crucial element that led the Allies to win. Sorry to say but you cannot actually merely bomb the enemy into submission, unless the bombs in question are nicknamed "Little Boy" and "Fat Man". And if you can't do that, and you can't get rid of the Royal Navy, and you'd rather go conquer the evil commies anyway... Even if Germany wins the Battle of Britain, Britain will still be there when America enters the war, although there is a lot to be said about the state of Britain when America does arrive (I don't want to go too far and say that the consequences would not have been very grave indeed for the British, but it's not "win the battle or be conquered" grave).

TL;DR: Boats are hard, and Germany cannot into boat like Britain can into boat, so Germany cannot into Britain.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 26, 2016, 04:57:04 am
Well, the massive bombings of Germany manage to basically halt their weapon industry. Germany would have lost anyway, because the massive bombings only started well after Barbarossa had bogged down, but in an alternate universe where Germany hadn't invaded the USSR, I think the Brits and US would have ended up bombing all of Germany to rubbles and invading the mainland.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 26, 2016, 08:14:21 am
Aerial bombardment did not stop Germany from increasing its war material production right until factories started getting conquered.

What both daylight and night bombing campaign did was tie up vast amount of resources from Germany, and make it possible for the Allies to actually make use of their superior industrial might in a war of attrition. Germany had no choice but to pull units from East and swap more production from bombers, tanks and so forth to fighters and flak guns. Half a million men were manning AAA and radars in Germany alone - all away from the East. Allies had no boots on the ground in continental Europe until 1943 in Sicily and Italy, so the only means of power projection was by air, and it was totally worth it.

I have a lot of thoughts on the topic of aerial warfare and I may later reply in depth.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 26, 2016, 08:15:54 am
Actually, that's not true. I remember reading in Wages of Destruction that the allies DID manage to stop the constant increase in war material production.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 26, 2016, 08:57:05 am
Actually, that's not true. I remember reading in Wages of Destruction that the allies DID manage to stop the constant increase in war material production.

Well, Germany's GDP was at its largest when the Reich was at its largest. But the factories in Germany kept going until very late in 1944 when they started getting conquered and running out of raw materials. Bombardments did shut down production for days or even weeks at a time, but Germany also kept building more factories. Tank and vehicle production too peaked somewhere in 1944, but aircraft production peaked I believe in late September 1944, long after aircraft factories in France and most in Italy and Netherlands were already unavailable and Allies were able to attain air superiority anywhere they wanted to. They built more planes than they could fuel or man.

What is true is Germany was late in turning its civilian economy into war economy, so part of the war material manufacturing expansion in 1944 is they were still working on that.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Erkki on December 26, 2016, 09:21:02 am
Still worse, the Axis powers in general had one major deficiency in terms of their pilot training programs that the Allies generally lacked.  In the UK and USA in particular (I'm not so familiar with the USSR, but I believe they had this as well), particularly-capable aces were regularly cycled out of the flying rotation and stationed ground-side to rest, recuperate, and most importantly, train new pilots.  In Germany and Japan, aces were kept flying until they get shot down.  This was probable one of the two major contributors to the unusually high kill tallies for Axis aces (along with separate methods for counting casualties), but it also means that their knowledge and experience is never used to create a new cadre of pilots.  Every fresh pilot put out by the British has much more training than their German counterparts.  Of course, the lack of rest and recuperation had other consequences; German pilots quickly began to develop a particular case of combat fatigue after multiple sorties, made worse by how many of their compatriots were lost. 

This is partially inaccurate - Axis powers, even Japan, did rotate pilots back for training duties. For example Norbert Hannig(42 victories) was rotated back(29 March 1944) despite him being a very successfull pilot who could have scored dozens more kills had he served more at the front. Sakai was too, despite him being the most successfull ace at the time, although it was first because of his wounds.

What was problem for both Germany and Japan was they didnt initially plan to fight a long war; they did not prepare enough to replace pilots. Experience of frontline pilots wasnt used nearly enough, they werent rotated back enough, there werent enough resoures put into the training program in general and when they then found themselves thousands of pilots short, they had to cut the flight hours and shorten the programs, which then produced ever worse pilots. Quality of Luftwaffe's replacement pilots started falling rapidly after approximately mid 1943, Japan's even earlier. Majority of the responsibility I think goes to Der Dicke, Marshall Hermann Göring himself. He proved his worth in Battle of Britain too.

USSR used a system of their own, IIRC. In many frontline regiments they had one or two experienced squadrons and then a "training squadron" with 2nd line planes but led by experienced pilots, that would fly slightly easier missions than others. They would rotate pilots from flight schools to training squadrons and from training squadrons to ones that flew the all missions. 12. and 13. GvIAPs at least for sure had this structure: La-5 and Yak-9 for best squadrons, while training squads with old LaGG and Yak-1 would protect their bases and fly safe escort missions and train when they had the time.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sheb on December 26, 2016, 11:24:29 am
Actually, that's not true. I remember reading in Wages of Destruction that the allies DID manage to stop the constant increase in war material production.

Well, Germany's GDP was at its largest when the Reich was at its largest. But the factories in Germany kept going until very late in 1944 when they started getting conquered and running out of raw materials. Bombardments did shut down production for days or even weeks at a time, but Germany also kept building more factories. Tank and vehicle production too peaked somewhere in 1944, but aircraft production peaked I believe in late September 1944, long after aircraft factories in France and most in Italy and Netherlands were already unavailable and Allies were able to attain air superiority anywhere they wanted to. They built more planes than they could fuel or man.

What is true is Germany was late in turning its civilian economy into war economy, so part of the war material manufacturing expansion in 1944 is they were still working on that.

Well,I only have a French-language copy of Wages of Destruction here (Christmas present for my gf), but as soon as I get my hands on my copy I'll correct you.  :)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 26, 2016, 05:36:17 pm
My short list of consequences for the Chinese Axis:

-War between Japan and the USA is still possible due to preexisting conflict, but also not certain. I don't recall any evidence that the Japanese military was bolder because of Axis membership, so I think it's more likely than not that Pearl Harbor still happens.

-China does not significantly help the Axis. I believe that in almost all scenarios the Kuomintang would pull a Ho Chi Minh and eagerly thank them for their support, then do nothing to help them with it. The best thing they could do is strike at the USSR in the largest flank of all time, but Mao would probably break the united front if that happened.

Most interesting butterflies:

If Japan decides to keep the war with America soft, it's entirely possible that the US never enters WWII, or more likely pulls a WWI reenactment and arrives to crush the Western front once it's already broken in order to stave off the USSR. The USSR almost certainly takes more of Europe in both scenarios, maybe even going all the way to the Atlantic if American neutrality endures. However, the USSR's new empire might buckle and collapse pretty quickly, given that they'll be losing even more of their population to the extended conflict.

If the Kuomintang strike at the USSR and Mao decides not to care and the US stays out of the war, Soviet defeat is possible. There's not much reason for China to be that committed, but for the sake of getting German support against Japan or whatever. Actually holding any part of the USSR would at that point probably require outright extermination, but I'm sure the Nazis would oblige that. This path has suddenly makes an Axis victory seem pretty possible. I think the UK might start looking for a way out if it all goes that far to shit. China probably falls to Japanese conquest and is placed under effectively colonial rule afterwards. The Axis, Japan, and America inherit the Earth.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 26, 2016, 06:23:57 pm
Still worse, the Axis powers in general had one major deficiency in terms of their pilot training programs that the Allies generally lacked.  In the UK and USA in particular (I'm not so familiar with the USSR, but I believe they had this as well), particularly-capable aces were regularly cycled out of the flying rotation and stationed ground-side to rest, recuperate, and most importantly, train new pilots.  In Germany and Japan, aces were kept flying until they get shot down.  This was probable one of the two major contributors to the unusually high kill tallies for Axis aces (along with separate methods for counting casualties), but it also means that their knowledge and experience is never used to create a new cadre of pilots.  Every fresh pilot put out by the British has much more training than their German counterparts.  Of course, the lack of rest and recuperation had other consequences; German pilots quickly began to develop a particular case of combat fatigue after multiple sorties, made worse by how many of their compatriots were lost. 

This is partially inaccurate - Axis powers, even Japan, did rotate pilots back for training duties. For example Norbert Hannig(42 victories) was rotated back(29 March 1944) despite him being a very successfull pilot who could have scored dozens more kills had he served more at the front. Sakai was too, despite him being the most successfull ace at the time, although it was first because of his wounds.

What was problem for both Germany and Japan was they didnt initially plan to fight a long war; they did not prepare enough to replace pilots. Experience of frontline pilots wasnt used nearly enough, they werent rotated back enough, there werent enough resoures put into the training program in general and when they then found themselves thousands of pilots short, they had to cut the flight hours and shorten the programs, which then produced ever worse pilots. Quality of Luftwaffe's replacement pilots started falling rapidly after approximately mid 1943, Japan's even earlier. Majority of the responsibility I think goes to Der Dicke, Marshall Hermann Göring himself. He proved his worth in Battle of Britain too.

USSR used a system of their own, IIRC. In many frontline regiments they had one or two experienced squadrons and then a "training squadron" with 2nd line planes but led by experienced pilots, that would fly slightly easier missions than others. They would rotate pilots from flight schools to training squadrons and from training squadrons to ones that flew the all missions. 12. and 13. GvIAPs at least for sure had this structure: La-5 and Yak-9 for best squadrons, while training squads with old LaGG and Yak-1 would protect their bases and fly safe escort missions and train when they had the time.
Thank you for the corrections and elaboration on the USSR.  That's an interesting system, and it seems quite good for making sure that rookie pilots can get actual flying experience in combat situations.  I do recall that one of the major crimping points for the Germans and Japanese was that inability to put rookies in the air due to the growing fuel scarcity situation later in the war as well, after all.

My short list of consequences for the Chinese Axis:

-War between Japan and the USA is still possible due to preexisting conflict, but also not certain. I don't recall any evidence that the Japanese military was bolder because of Axis membership, so I think it's more likely than not that Pearl Harbor still happens.

-China does not significantly help the Axis. I believe that in almost all scenarios the Kuomintang would pull a Ho Chi Minh and eagerly thank them for their support, then do nothing to help them with it. The best thing they could do is strike at the USSR in the largest flank of all time, but Mao would probably break the united front if that happened.

Most interesting butterflies:

If Japan decides to keep the war with America soft, it's entirely possible that the US never enters WWII, or more likely pulls a WWI reenactment and arrives to crush the Western front once it's already broken in order to stave off the USSR. The USSR almost certainly takes more of Europe in both scenarios, maybe even going all the way to the Atlantic if American neutrality endures. However, the USSR's new empire might buckle and collapse pretty quickly, given that they'll be losing even more of their population to the extended conflict.

If the Kuomintang strike at the USSR and Mao decides not to care and the US stays out of the war, Soviet defeat is possible. There's not much reason for China to be that committed, but for the sake of getting German support against Japan or whatever. Actually holding any part of the USSR would at that point probably require outright extermination, but I'm sure the Nazis would oblige that. This path has suddenly makes an Axis victory seem pretty possible. I think the UK might start looking for a way out if it all goes that far to shit. China probably falls to Japanese conquest and is placed under effectively colonial rule afterwards. The Axis, Japan, and America inherit the Earth.
The problem with a Chinese intervention in Barbarossa is threefold:
1. Sino-Japanese War has been in swing for two-three years.  The GMD is blocked from the Soviet Far East by hostile armies that are superior in a pitched battle.  The GMD no longer even controls their own capital or coastline.  The only place the GMD can even attack the Soviets is through Xinjiang, where the USSR is backing their own pet warlord Sheng Shicai, and where they've already failed in 1934 and 1937, and they can only do that by moving forces that are presently keeping the Japanese from expanding their gains still further.

2. The single largest source of military support to the GMD in 1940-1941 is the USSR.  This is largely due to the Sino-Japanese War; the Soviets are providing what will increase to something like $250 million in munitions and other military goods, as well as the air support and military advisors such as Vasily Chuikov, who won't be recalled until 1942 and is better known for the defense of Stalingrad.  The decision to back Mao to the hilt won't be made until 1945 and Manchuria.  With the Japanese holding the coast and the Soviets on the major land route from Germany, Germany cannot replace the USSR as the key provider of these supplies; there is no German Burma Road.

3. The GMD military has no way to project power within their own borders, much less beyond; observe the utter inability of the GMD to eject a single division of Soviet forces from Xinjiang in 1937.  Even without the Sino-Japanese War, it's a small force of regulars and a large number of various warlord-dominated forces of wildly varying quality.  With the Sino-Japanese War, those forces directly controlled by Chiang were rapidly destroyed, leaving him utterly dependent on the warlords.  In this respect, the GMD is actually even worse off than the Japanese, and they were thrown out of Mongolia in 1939 as well after a handful of border skirmishes.

Basically, Chiang needs the Soviets too badly to fight them.  Moreover, he actually knows this.  This is why he embarked on an almost-Orwellian denial of Soviet forces marching through Kashgar or the Gansu corridor, that there was no bombardment of Khoitan that resulted in 2000 casualties, that there is no war with the Soviets, that the Soviets are their loyal friends and allies, and that any rumours to the contrary are Japanese propaganda intended to undermine the friendship between the two nations. 
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 26, 2016, 09:56:48 pm
Different question:
What would WWII have looked like if the Nazis had sided with the Chinese instead of the Japanese?
Most immediate consequence would be are the Japanese willing or capable of attacking Dutch Indonesia, British Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaya, and US Hawaii pearl harbour, and will the Chinese be able to launch an effective two-front war on the Soviets where the Japanese failed?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 27, 2016, 12:59:38 am
Here's a question.

Germany sides with Chinese, Russians side with Japanese in the East Asian Theater. Pearl Harbor still happens, but six months later and actually has a lasting impact on American naval capability in the Pacific (actual port facilities and airfields are damaged such that it becomes difficult or impossible to bring up the battleships that are sunk, and most American aircraft carriers are lost). Japan and Germany, being arrayed against each other, both realize that this is going to be a long war early on, and adjust training and manufacturing with that in mind.

What happens?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on December 27, 2016, 02:59:45 am
Loyalty cascade, America ends up fighting every other country at the same time and winning.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on December 27, 2016, 06:55:27 am
I am pretty sure we had this discussion before... during WW2 the "whole world vs US" would end in whole world victory even more so than now.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on December 27, 2016, 09:54:34 am
I am pretty sure we had this discussion before... during WW2 the "whole world vs US" would end in whole world victory even more so than now.

Depends on how the Commonwealth's chips fall and what Russia does. Three sided wars aren't very predictable or stable.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 27, 2016, 01:14:23 pm
In this situation, I believe Commonwealth would side with America over Russia, but that's not certain, I suppose.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 27, 2016, 01:59:19 pm
It's all but certain.  The Japanese declaration of war on the US was never an end in itself, but rather the means to an end: to secure their oil supply to prosecute the war in China.  If the USSR sides with Japan (heavens know why; perhaps everyone in the Soviet leadership up to and including Stalin himself has a collective aneurysm and their replacements decide that a militant, aggressive power annexing border territories they have their own designs on is jolly fun), it only makes Japan even more likely to insist upon the historical Southern Resource Area rather than the Northern Resource Area (Siberia).  With Barbarossa, the USSR is going to need all the oil it can get for its own use; it won't be able to meet the copious needs of the Japanese.  The attack on Pearl Harbor and invasion of the Philippines are intended to keep the US occupied and away from the real war with the British and Dutch, behind a cordon of island fortresses from which the Japanese can exercise a defense in depth while the US are forced to operate from across the Pacific (a more successful Pearl Harbor aids with this).  Unless the British can be absolutely relied upon to throw the Dutch to the wolves (which the Aussies and Kiwis would protest vehemently, if only because they don't want the Japanese as neighbors either), Japan can't trust their military bases in Singapore and Malaya to stay out of the conflict, and thus will need to embark on a first strike there just as they did in Pearl Harbor.

By the same token, the timing of Pearl Harbor has only an indirect relation to the Sino-Japanese War: to wit, the US oil embargo on Japan as a consequence of that war.  The surprise occupation of French Indochina was icing on the cake, so to speak, but the oil embargo was key.  The Japanese, before the attack, offered to withdraw from the southern piece of Indochina in return for a complete end of US assistance to China, US supplying free oil to Japan, and assisting in acquiring materials from the Dutch East Indies, a proposal the US did not seriously entertain for obvious reasons.  It doesn't matter if Germany or the USSR backs China or Japan; the US oil freeze spelled an end to Japanese imperialist ambitions and thus made a war necessary within the year.  Alternately, the Japanese could have seen reason, backed down in China, and accepted a peace with some concessions, but that would require the Japanese leadership at this stage to be reasonable. 

Also, if Japan and Germany both realize it'll be a long war, they're much less likely to embark on it in the first place.  They both need a short war if they want to win; they lack the manufacturing (Japan) or resources (Germany) to win a long one.  If they expect a long war, they'll be aware they'll be unlikely to win.  Neither power is outright suicidal (certain statements by the Japanese leadership aside).  That said, if they do make provision for a long war, they might be able to fight better and harder for longer; Germany begins to gear for total war before 1942, for instance.  Neither, however, is likely to actually win; they're now planning for a war that plays to their opponents' strengths, the sort of war we actually had.  What Germany needs to win is to knock the British out in 1940 or 1941, avoiding the blockade that cut them off from imported supplies like oil, rubber, and tungsten and possibly (though unlikely) even tying British and US hands regarding the USSR come Barbarossa.  What Japan needs to win is to secure the DEI and immediately come to terms with the US and UK that leaves them cemented behind a sanitary cordon with a free hand in China; Yamamoto's "six months to a year," in other words.  What it ends with, likely, is a 1946-1947 war with nuclear craters in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Dresden, Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Kokura, Tokyo...

EDIT:
Oh, and regarding USSR backing Japan.  Likely, the USSR conveniently "forgets" to declare war on the US along with Japan, being thoroughly occupied with Germans in the Soviet heartland, and the US, seeing the USSR keeping Germany busy as well (FDR always thinking of Nazi Germany as the primary threat), conveniently declines to declare war on them as well; it's not like the USSR attacked Pearl Harbor, after all.  Even if we go further and say Lend-Lease to the USSR ceases, they still stop the Germans cold and gradually push them back.  However, the war years are marked with a much slower grind back westward (shorter logistical tail for the USSR without those trucks, jeeps, railroad engines/stock, or fuel) and severe famine (likely encouraged by the Germans as well, who are stealing everything they can to stave off famine back home as well).  What likely occurs is a more difficult post-war layout, as well, without Yalta or Potsdam - perhaps a united Communist Korea (as the USSR takes "protective custody" of Manchuria and Korea anyways) and Communist Greece, perhaps a united Allied Germany.  It's hard to say.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Shadowlord on December 27, 2016, 02:16:45 pm
Y'all have gotten me to reinstall civ V and install R.E.D. WWII Edition Revised (http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=753218257), with all your talk about alternative WWII scenarios. :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 27, 2016, 02:19:33 pm
In this case the idea is that Russia wants to grab some of those border territories right away, rather than keep the Japanese away and go after them later.

But that certainly seems like a good analysis, thank you Culise. Interesting, at the very minimum, which was the point. :P
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on December 27, 2016, 02:32:05 pm
In this case the idea is that Russia wants to grab some of those border territories right away, rather than keep the Japanese away and go after them later.
Ah, but the problem is that Japan holds some of those border territories right now as of the points of divergence: Manchuria, to wit.  On the flip side, Japan is upset the Soviets hold Mongolia, the Soviet Far East, and if possible, the rest of Siberia as well (whatever they can lop off, really).  If the USSR wants to grab the border territories right away, the most probable answer is not to ally openly with Japan, but rather to escalate the border conflicts of 1939 into a full-on invasion of the Far East by 1940.  However, the debacle in Finland has already demonstrated to the USSR the need for a military "reform" (read: clean sweep) before any such redeployment eastward for an extended military campaign can be arranged.  It's unlikely they'd launch such an attack before the Molotov Line is complete and the military thoroughly vetted.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 29, 2016, 04:56:01 pm
Hm.

What do you guys think would occur in the much simpler scenario of Hitler not trying to invade Russia, and Stalin likewise not trying to invade the Third Reich?

Hell, here's a scenario for you: one of the many attempts on Hitler's life succeeds, in early 1940, say around April. How does the war go from then on?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 29, 2016, 05:25:17 pm
If the USSR and Nazi Germany don't go to war, and they absolutely will not go to war, is that information telegraphed in some manner to France, Britain and the USA?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on December 29, 2016, 06:07:58 pm
As I recall, Himmler was even more deluded and jingoist than Hitler, so it probably wouldn't go well.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rolepgeek on December 29, 2016, 10:28:21 pm
If the USSR and Nazi Germany don't go to war, and they absolutely will not go to war, is that information telegraphed in some manner to France, Britain and the USA?
No, other than them not really arming their common borders more heavily than expected from pure occupation purposes.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Sergarr on February 03, 2017, 07:20:13 pm
F-35 vs Su-35 analysis (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-M9jA1INk8), in two parts (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjS8j2PWtK4). F-35 is obviously better, although it's surprisingly close.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on February 03, 2017, 07:53:25 pm
Oh, it got part 2? I've seen only the first one.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Jopax on February 03, 2017, 08:01:38 pm
Seeing how the F-35 is a much newer plane it's only to be expected. Sure the Sukhoi has seen plenty of upgrades over the years but that's still amending the intial design and not designing something better from the ground up when you have much fewer restrictions of the original design you have to work within. To say nothing of the bloated cost and the simple fact of how fucking ugly the F-35 is.

Tomcat4lyfe
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on February 03, 2017, 10:39:07 pm
F-35 can't pull off a Pugachev's Cobra, it's obviously much worse. Duh.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on May 29, 2017, 06:58:23 pm
Which is exactly why good, upstanding citizens should be able to purchase F-22s. ;)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Dorsidwarf on May 29, 2017, 08:35:34 pm
Yeah the ability of a guerilla force to wage effective war against the US military drops catastrophically if "Hearts and minds" and "noncombatants"  are removed from play. If the entire civilian population are taking up arms, there is no background of "people the army cannot shoot at/bomb" to melt back into.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on May 29, 2017, 08:48:16 pm
Yeah the ability of a guerilla force to wage effective war against the US military drops catastrophically if "Hearts and minds" and "noncombatants"  are removed from play. If the entire civilian population are taking up arms, there is no background of "people the army cannot shoot at/bomb" to melt back into.

That results in the United States ceasing to be a modern, industrialized nation. The often imagined, poorly conceived, American uprising isn't one that gets won, but it's one that doesn't get won by anyone. Once the fires die down, there ain't a nation left, which isn't an unreasonable accomplishment when faced with tyranny or evil.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: NullForceOmega on May 29, 2017, 08:50:22 pm
And that assumes that a bunch of US soldiers are going to be okay with killing the civilians they are supposed to protect because the government tells them to.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Dorsidwarf on May 29, 2017, 09:00:30 pm
Yeah the ability of a guerilla force to wage effective war against the US military drops catastrophically if "Hearts and minds" and "noncombatants"  are removed from play. If the entire civilian population are taking up arms, there is no background of "people the army cannot shoot at/bomb" to melt back into.

That results in the United States ceasing to be a modern, industrialized nation. The often imagined, poorly conceived, American uprising isn't one that gets won, but it's one that doesn't get won by anyone. Once the fires die down, there ain't a nation left, which isn't an unreasonable accomplishment when faced with tyranny or evil.

Yeah but this is a fantasy universe where every single citizen of the USA jumps up, pulls an AR-15 out of their backside, and declares a revolution simultaneously. The serious sociopolitical effects are clearly not being considered here
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on May 29, 2017, 09:05:31 pm
Yeah the ability of a guerilla force to wage effective war against the US military drops catastrophically if "Hearts and minds" and "noncombatants"  are removed from play. If the entire civilian population are taking up arms, there is no background of "people the army cannot shoot at/bomb" to melt back into.

That results in the United States ceasing to be a modern, industrialized nation. The often imagined, poorly conceived, American uprising isn't one that gets won, but it's one that doesn't get won by anyone. Once the fires die down, there ain't a nation left, which isn't an unreasonable accomplishment when faced with tyranny or evil.

Yeah but this is a fantasy universe where every single citizen of the USA jumps up, pulls an AR-15 out of their backside, and declares a revolution simultaneously. The serious sociopolitical effects are clearly not being considered here

Yeah, it's basically a zombie plague type scenario, except all the zombies have AK-47s and somehow the military is immune.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Dorsidwarf on May 29, 2017, 09:19:47 pm
Yeah the ability of a guerilla force to wage effective war against the US military drops catastrophically if "Hearts and minds" and "noncombatants"  are removed from play. If the entire civilian population are taking up arms, there is no background of "people the army cannot shoot at/bomb" to melt back into.

That results in the United States ceasing to be a modern, industrialized nation. The often imagined, poorly conceived, American uprising isn't one that gets won, but it's one that doesn't get won by anyone. Once the fires die down, there ain't a nation left, which isn't an unreasonable accomplishment when faced with tyranny or evil.

Yeah but this is a fantasy universe where every single citizen of the USA jumps up, pulls an AR-15 out of their backside, and declares a revolution simultaneously. The serious sociopolitical effects are clearly not being considered here

Yeah, it's basically a zombie plague type scenario, except all the zombies have AK-47s and somehow the military is immune.
blink blink
*starts writing furiously*
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on May 29, 2017, 09:36:54 pm
The fantastic elements of the scenario are what make it moot. The US military is 1% of America. If the other 99% turn on it then they don't even have to fight, the permanent severance of all domestic supply lines destroys the military in short order.

A society's power is higher than any institution of that society, inherently. The only limitation is will. In a realistic scenario, if 10% of a nation takes to the streets without weapons all the big baddass "God Has Sent Me Upon You For Your Crimes"-types clean out their bank accounts and go hide in the Seychelles for the rest of their lives. Armament only decreases the necessary number.

As much as I'm a fan of the intention that the Second Amendment represents, it is only a minor benefit compared to the reality of military defection that occurs in any state that's about to be upturned. The general argument that "hur you think you can fight a Predator drone Bubba" falls flat when actual historical revolutions are observed. Weapons of all grades get parceled out once the conditions for revolution exist.

Of course, that probably means some religious nutjob gets their hands on a nuke and makes everything pointless by deciding to overturn the bowl of God's wrath personally, but you know. Armchair General.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on May 29, 2017, 09:39:51 pm
The Second Amendment and the culture it represents performs the function intended just fine, I'd argue.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: TheDarkStar on May 29, 2017, 09:41:57 pm
Yeah the ability of a guerilla force to wage effective war against the US military drops catastrophically if "Hearts and minds" and "noncombatants"  are removed from play. If the entire civilian population are taking up arms, there is no background of "people the army cannot shoot at/bomb" to melt back into.

That results in the United States ceasing to be a modern, industrialized nation. The often imagined, poorly conceived, American uprising isn't one that gets won, but it's one that doesn't get won by anyone. Once the fires die down, there ain't a nation left, which isn't an unreasonable accomplishment when faced with tyranny or evil.

Yeah but this is a fantasy universe where every single citizen of the USA jumps up, pulls an AR-15 out of their backside, and declares a revolution simultaneously. The serious sociopolitical effects are clearly not being considered here

Yeah, it's basically a zombie plague type scenario, except all the zombies have AK-47s and somehow the military is immune.
blink blink
*starts writing furiously*

"12 weird tricks to overthrow your government - for number 6 you only need 300 million assault rifles!"
"How to overthrow your government in 8 easy steps firearms sold seperately"
"Soldiers hate him! Use this one simple technique to spontaneously generate your own AK-47!"
"Do you have unexplained lumps on your neck, back, or arms? You may be at risk for Assault Rifle Cancer. Visit us for a free screening today!"
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on May 29, 2017, 09:42:06 pm
Besides, in even the bloodiest revolutions and civil wars, most of the population aren't even fighting. Either the Civil War or the Revolutionary war had only like 10% (with that number, it'd be the Civil War) on either side actually fighting, with some percentage in a support role, and the rest cheering (or not) from the sidelines.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Bumber on May 29, 2017, 10:24:53 pm
US aircraft and weapons are designed and built by civilian contractors.

Drones, aircraft, bombs, missile defense, chemicals. The only thing stopping them from being assembled and distributed is the law.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on May 29, 2017, 10:56:15 pm
US aircraft and weapons are designed and built by civilian contractors.

Drones, aircraft, bombs, missile defense, chemicals. The only thing stopping them from being assembled and distributed is the law.

Yep, because the military industrial complex is somehow less or more American than the American military or the American populace.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Bumber on May 30, 2017, 12:05:44 am
US aircraft and weapons are designed and built by civilian contractors.

Drones, aircraft, bombs, missile defense, chemicals. The only thing stopping them from being assembled and distributed is the law.

Yep, because the military industrial complex is somehow less or more American than the American military or the American populace.
The hypothetical scenario, as I understand it, is military versus civilians. Contractors are private sector, civilians, not under military oath. They'll be wanting civilian-produced goods.

The executives will probably also want to flee the country with their money.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on May 30, 2017, 01:14:22 am
If the army was there, fighting literally the rest of the US, would they engage in bloody street-to-street firefights? Nope. The easiest thing to do would just be level the damn place. The ENTIRE populace is hostile, so long as you don't send anyone in, everything there is a target. So you can just drop an MOAB in the middle of San Francisco without even the slightest fuck given. Sure, after the war you have to repair it all, but both sides in this hypothetical scenario are basically pulling a "No surrender!" thing.
America is a big place, and you can't MOAB every goddamn town in the whole US. The size is too much, the amount of people is too much. Only thing I could see is use of biological weaponry, and not even that really, there is too much empty space to hide in, and gas masks and other NBC equipment can be purchased without permit, and is a part of regular >surviving nuclear war prepper pack.

And what is there to stop something like that happening? Fuck. All. How many AA guns and SAM missiles are in civilian use? How many F-22s?
After they raid their closest supply depot, guarded by weekend soldiers, they gain access to heavy equipment.

Not only would the whole US populace be fighting a well armed foe, they'd be fighting a well armed foe with total air superiority.
Air bases can be captured too, and planes can be destroyed on ground. Sure, army got tanks, but simplest molotovs are deadly to superfluous turbine engine of Abrams, people would get their hands on IEDs, soon there would be self-made weaponry, which, with the technological and resource base, would be much more effective than the already very effective scrap weapons of middle east guerillas, and as I said, people would soon get into depots to get the weapons in store there.
Soon, US armed forces would be reduced to Navy, which is honestly only thing that can't be killed easily enough by infantry, but all that navy also need supplies. Sure, the nuclear carriers and submarines can just float around for years, but ultimately people on there need food and water, and it depends if some other country is willing to supply them.

In any case, US armed forces would be kicked out of their own country, and the civilians would soon form their own armed forces with heavy equipment and whatnot.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Playergamer on May 30, 2017, 12:25:54 pm
"Total air superiority" for how long? How long would that last when nobody's making spare parts or jet fuel?

As MSH eloquently put it, the point of the Second Amendment is simply lowering the percent of the populace that needs to rise up to un-nation a dictatorship.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on May 30, 2017, 01:57:18 pm
Why would the military even fight if every citizen just took up arms? I mean, they're not going to fight their parents, their siblings, let alone kill them. Realistic or Fantastical, an "American Uprising" is just impossible. Also you're certainly not going to MOAB anything, destroying your own infrastructure is a quick way to get invaded mid-war or after the war is over.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Amperzand on May 30, 2017, 04:24:17 pm
Another factor is that most of the nuclear arsenal is a bunch of widely-spaced and lightly-manned bunkers in flyover country. How long would it be before the first Minuteman silo got captured, even assuming a magical "NO SURRENDER" situation?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on May 30, 2017, 06:38:48 pm
I'd wager that those lightly manned bunkers are heavily armoured, as to a point where using explosives to break them open would risk contaminating the site with radioactive material, and destroy the nukes you were after in the process, and stocked with supplies to last the guard team for more than just a few days.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Playergamer on May 30, 2017, 06:44:01 pm
Not necessarily. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-missile-base-security-failed-takeover-drill-ap-reports/)

Also, important to note that this drill was a simulation of a terrorist group raiding a silo to steal a warhead in peacetime. Not a security team resisting a much larger force without reinforcements.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Strife26 on May 30, 2017, 07:41:54 pm
Not necessarily. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-missile-base-security-failed-takeover-drill-ap-reports/)

Also, important to note that this drill was a simulation of a terrorist group raiding a silo to steal a warhead in peacetime. Not a security team resisting a much larger force without reinforcements.

Only tangentially related and on-topic, but too good not to mention again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/us/pacifists-who-broke-into-nuclear-weapon-facility-due-in-court.html?_r=1&ref=atomicweapons (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/us/pacifists-who-broke-into-nuclear-weapon-facility-due-in-court.html?_r=1&ref=atomicweapons)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on May 30, 2017, 07:48:53 pm
Not necessarily. (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nuclear-missile-base-security-failed-takeover-drill-ap-reports/)

Also, important to note that this drill was a simulation of a terrorist group raiding a silo to steal a warhead in peacetime. Not a security team resisting a much larger force without reinforcements.

Only tangentially related and on-topic, but too good not to mention again.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/us/pacifists-who-broke-into-nuclear-weapon-facility-due-in-court.html?_r=1&ref=atomicweapons (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/us/pacifists-who-broke-into-nuclear-weapon-facility-due-in-court.html?_r=1&ref=atomicweapons)


Ha, I remember that. It was a bunch of people who's only intention was to make a point about the security lapses and problems.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 15, 2017, 02:41:39 am
Looking at Russian steam trains (http://www.internationalsteam.co.uk/trains/russia21.htm) and her nuclear train platforms (http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a25423/all-aboard-russias-apocalypse-train/) got me thinking at how a post-WWIII map of "great powers" would look like. Aussie world power? Russian steam train lines of communication in a dead world? Chinese underground cities? Swissroaches emerging from their mountain hobbit-holes to dominate the world? Icelandic sagas 2: Nuclear viking boogaloo? How many nuclear weapons would be held in reserve, how much of previous government would survive their nation's explosion to rebuild or relaunch a post-hot war nuclear negotiations/2nd strike? If destruction occurred with today's reduced nuclear arsenals, would the surviving warlords seek to finish the job and complete nuclear destruction of their foes? Would mankind be able to repair global communications?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on August 15, 2017, 06:50:26 am
Looking at Russian steam trains (http://www.internationalsteam.co.uk/trains/russia21.htm) and her nuclear train platforms (http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a25423/all-aboard-russias-apocalypse-train/) got me thinking at how a post-WWIII map of "great powers" would look like. Aussie world power? Russian steam train lines of communication in a dead world? Chinese underground cities? Swissroaches emerging from their mountain hobbit-holes to dominate the world? Icelandic sagas 2: Nuclear viking boogaloo? How many nuclear weapons would be held in reserve, how much of previous government would survive their nation's explosion to rebuild or relaunch a post-hot war nuclear negotiations/2nd strike? If destruction occurred with today's reduced nuclear arsenals, would the surviving warlords seek to finish the job and complete nuclear destruction of their foes? Would mankind be able to repair global communications?
Read books from Metro universe. Post-Apo papacy, Venezuelan Nazis, a lot of Russians, etc...
OH WAIT YOU CAN'T THEY DON'T GET TRANSLATED TO ENGLISH OH WELL.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Taricus on August 15, 2017, 06:53:38 am
Honestly I think it depends on who exactly gets nuked and where.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 15, 2017, 08:21:31 am
Read books from Metro universe. Post-Apo papacy, Venezuelan Nazis, a lot of Russians, etc...
OH WAIT YOU CAN'T THEY DON'T GET TRANSLATED TO ENGLISH OH WELL.
There's always the vidya
Though the interactions I'm talking about would be how do the vast post-war nations deal with one another and such. For example in the USA, the likelihood of the pre-war government surviving is pretty high, USA's got a lot of bunkers. However the likelihood of the USA being able to reclaim North America would be another question entirely. Reminds me of a US war exercise where they were practicing how the USA would deal with a large armed rebellion. In the contest between US and rebellion, neither won, who won instead were the warlords that arose in the crossfire. Could the remnant gov then take on the warlords? What would the lines of communication in a post-war USA look like, would its railways survive or be repairable in time to face a second strike?

Honestly I think it depends on who exactly gets nuked and where.
I run under the basis that vital military targets and economic centres would be the highest priority ones, so it would be safe to assume much of the Northern hemisphere's capitals are just ~gone~. Also assuming that the war happens under current US-Russian nuclear doctrine, with both sides preferring tactical nuclear weapons, keeping up to a third in reserve, so in countries with large strategic depth significantly large rural populations surviving is probable.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
UK is a good example for thought; most of the surviving populations would come from celtic highland areas or english fishing towns, with much of the UK's maritime forces being able to escape the initial superdeath. It would be amusing for example if Cornwall or the Isle of Man was to make a surprise comeback in colonizing the empty quarters of England. Would Swindon remain Swindon
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 15, 2017, 08:42:45 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
UK is a good example for thought; most of the surviving populations would come from celtic highland areas or english fishing towns, with much of the UK's maritime forces being able to escape the initial superdeath. It would be amusing for example if Cornwall or the Isle of Man was to make a surprise comeback in colonizing the empty quarters of England. Would Swindon remain Swindon
Seriously? You used ~100 Mt as realistic yield for nuclear strike?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Kot on August 15, 2017, 08:54:49 am
There's always the vidya
Though the interactions I'm talking about would be how do the vast post-war nations deal with one another and such. For example in the USA, the likelihood of the pre-war government surviving is pretty high, USA's got a lot of bunkers. However the likelihood of the USA being able to reclaim North America would be another question entirely. Reminds me of a US war exercise where they were practicing how the USA would deal with a large armed rebellion. In the contest between US and rebellion, neither won, who won instead were the warlords that arose in the crossfire. Could the remnant gov then take on the warlords? What would the lines of communication in a post-war USA look like, would its railways survive or be repairable in time to face a second strike?
Vidyas are restricted to Moscow, and soon maybe a bit more of Russia.
And yes, in the expanded universe you get post-war nations and shit. Mentioned Papal States are a thing, there are those organized Venezuelian Nazis (as in, actual honest to God nazis, with Swastikas and all) uncountable warlords, etc.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Arx on August 15, 2017, 08:55:54 am
Seriously? You used ~100 Mt as realistic yield for nuclear strike?

This kind of post is fairly unconstructive. It doesn't convey whether that's too low or too high, or give any idea of what you think a more reasonable number would be. In fact, the only information it conveys is that you disagree with LW, and that you consider it appropriate to belittle him (although you have not, in fact, provided any explanation as to why you are more correct than he is). It's neither polite nor helpful enough to cover over the rudeness.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Puzzlemaker on August 15, 2017, 09:00:14 am
So it looks like North Korea decided to back down, which is a nice sigh of relief for everyone.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: martinuzz on August 15, 2017, 09:12:17 am

UK is a good example for thought; most of the surviving populations would come from celtic highland areas or english fishing towns, with much of the UK's maritime forces being able to escape the initial superdeath. It would be amusing for example if Cornwall or the Isle of Man was to make a surprise comeback in colonizing the empty quarters of England. Would Swindon remain Swindon
It's more likely that England will be renamed to the Scottish Lowlands
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 15, 2017, 09:13:58 am
Seriously? You used ~100 Mt as realistic yield for nuclear strike?

This kind of post is fairly unconstructive. It doesn't convey whether that's too low or too high, or give any idea of what you think a more reasonable number would be. In fact, the only information it conveys is that you disagree with LW, and that you consider it appropriate to belittle him (although you have not, in fact, provided any explanation as to why you are more correct than he is). It's neither polite nor helpful enough to cover over the rudeness.
Apologies, I was talking to LW. He's a jolly thick-skinned argumentative bastard, so I'm certain he won't get offended.
I assumed he knows what he's doing seeing how he chose that specific yield, so I was expecting an explanation for the choice without having to explain the basics first.

Here's some background for the onlookers: the largest ever detonated bomb was Tsar Bomba, at 50 Mt yield. In order to limit radioactive fallout, this was scaled down from the theoretical maximum of 100 Mt - the value LW used.
This kind of bomb is too large to be used in CBMs. It's also inefficient in how much energy is lost to the upper atmosphere as compared to smaller devices.
Both US and Russia reportedly use warheads with maximum yield around 1 Mt - two orders of magnitude lower.
Plug in 1 Mt into the same calculator here:
http://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
to see the effects. Choose airburst rather than groundburst - the latter is used only to penetrate bunkers (such as missile silos), since it produces reduced blast radius.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Helgoland on August 15, 2017, 09:27:29 am
Global communications, at least on a basic level, should be very easy to keep up. Building a radio is actually simple as shit, you just have to know how - and that knowledge is widespread enough to survive. Similar considerations apply for many other electronic devices. Modern cryptography, too, can in principle be done by hand or with just a primitive calculator, which means that sensitive information could still be relayed quickly over large distances.

Similarly, vehicles not dependent on fossil fuel - think bicycles, rollerblades - are (relatively) easy to make and use, and give a great advantage over even Napoleonic times. Chemistry on a 19th century level will stick around, too, up to and including primitive antibiotics. Germ theory, too, is something that makes life much easier without requiring advanced materials or long supply chains. Easy steel making, knowledge about alloys, techniques like employing sacrificial anodes for preventing corrosion: All there, all easy-ish even after the collapse. Modern crops will still be around, together with the knowledge of fertilization and soil chemistry - and that's not even considering the fact that you could definitely get farming equipment to run on wood instead of oil products.


It'll take us a while - say, fifty years - to once again send satellites to orbit, or produce computers like our modern ones, or put together fighter jets, rockets, aircraft carriers. But once the radiation dies down and you've gotten used to not being able to contact your friends on the other side of the earth, it'll be relatively fine. Hell, at least in Western Europe there will be a strong desire to rebuild the nations as they were before, due to them being largely defined via language and ethnicity, so larger government structures will assemble quickly, and with them, reliable trade over long distances will resume. Add that to the fact that the European populace is on average much more well-educated than that of the not-First world, and I'd wager you'd have a fair chance of seeing colonialist patterns resume after a few decades as we once again try to suck the oil out from under the Arabs.
Seriously? You used ~100 Mt as realistic yield for nuclear strike?

This kind of post is fairly unconstructive. It doesn't convey whether that's too low or too high, or give any idea of what you think a more reasonable number would be. In fact, the only information it conveys is that you disagree with LW, and that you consider it appropriate to belittle him (although you have not, in fact, provided any explanation as to why you are more correct than he is). It's neither polite nor helpful enough to cover over the rudeness.
Actually it's quite clear that 100 Mt is too much*, and it's also highly improbable that LW doesn't know that, so it's a perfectly reasonable calling-out of laziness or knowing exaggeration on LW's part.
Even if it was not clear that 100 Mt is too much, it's still pretty much self-evident that not all nukes would be of the same size. You really don't have to know all that much about nuclear weapons or nuclear strategy to realize it's a bad map. Not that it's easy to come up with a good one, but he should've at least slapped on a disclaimer 'very rough approximation' or something.

*Especially considering that pretty much all the nuke-owning countries are moving to smaller bombs that are delivered more precisely.

E: Damn ninjas.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 15, 2017, 09:40:02 am
Seriously? You used ~100 Mt as realistic yield for nuclear strike?
I didn't make the chart fam, it was made by real estate agents I found on google. I do not yet have the time to drop tactical nukes on London ;D

Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 15, 2017, 09:52:52 am
I was wondering what the price tags meant. So it's a scare-map intended to goad people into buying properties in places outside fantasy-scenario blast radii? Sounds legit.

It's always good to provide sources for one's claims, bub.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 15, 2017, 10:13:20 am
Sauce is for scrubs
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on August 15, 2017, 01:54:19 pm
Sauce is for scrubs
sauce pls
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 15, 2017, 02:40:09 pm
Sauce is for scrubs
sauce pls
t. Gandhi
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Dorsidwarf on August 15, 2017, 06:42:56 pm
Our words are backed with nuclear shitposts!
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: sluissa on August 21, 2017, 08:13:21 am
So apparently US Navy destroyer crews need to go back to driving school.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40995829
 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40995829)
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Egan_BW on September 27, 2018, 08:15:41 pm
Hmm. Eh, it's only like a year old~
Egan gestures and the thread begins to move!

50 medieval European peasants vs 50 first-world-country citizens from 2018. Both sides are armed with cheap steel spears and have no real combat experience. Who wins and why?
Do the modern folks beat out the medieval ones with the strength of being bigger and less malnourished? Or will they be at a disadvantage due to being coddled and poorly-exercised? Maybe the currentyear-ians can vaguely recall some battle strategies from high school history?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 27, 2018, 08:36:11 pm
Humans are actually capable of crowd coordination without training - the part of our brain dedicated to walking and pathmaking is highly developed. I suspect the first-worlders win if combatants are bloodlusted, otherwise nearly everyone routs as soon as the first mortal wound is struck by one of the 2-4% without hard aversion to killing, leaving the winner essentially up to chance.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Hanslanda on September 28, 2018, 05:55:08 am
Humans are actually capable of crowd coordination without training - the part of our brain dedicated to walking and pathmaking is highly developed. I suspect the first-worlders win if combatants are bloodlusted, otherwise nearly everyone routs as soon as the first mortal wound is struck by one of the 2-4% without hard aversion to killing, leaving the winner essentially up to chance.

This. Unless you trapped them they wouldn't want to risk a lethal fight, like any animal with functional neural ganglia. I believe a modern humans' basic knowledge of anatomy would tip the fight in their favor, along with size from better nutrition and lack of rampant lead poisoning.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 28, 2018, 01:08:04 pm
Hmm. Eh, it's only like a year old~
Egan gestures and the thread begins to move!

50 medieval European peasants vs 50 first-world-country citizens from 2018. Both sides are armed with cheap steel spears and have no real combat experience. Who wins and why?
Do the modern folks beat out the medieval ones with the strength of being bigger and less malnourished? Or will they be at a disadvantage due to being coddled and poorly-exercised? Maybe the currentyear-ians can vaguely recall some battle strategies from high school history?
Depends what peasants, from what country and what time period. English freeholders, malnourished Polish serfs, Alpenine Germans, French farmers, Corsican villagers, Russian frontier peasants e.t.c. all have varying degrees of nutrition and combat experience depending on where they lived and when they lived. In almost all cases I will always give the advantage to the peasant.
The peasant is always working physical labour, while the peasants who weren't typically physical labourers were usually violent people when violence was required (English millers and bakers being frontline soldiers in the peasant's revolt for example). They were conscripted to fight at a moment's notice, with the particular mental and physical preparations needed to kill enemies which does not exist in civil society today. It reminds me of a British army officer being asked how he thought the British army today would fare against the French or British army of the Napoleonic wars, during a re-enactment of the Napoleonic wars, assuming they had equal equipment standards. The army officer said that today's soldiers were better shots and bigger men, but the men of yesteryear were much more resilient, especially where killing by the bayonet was the standard. Couple that with peasants having a better diet than today (food security and lack of variety is not the same as food quality, of which there has been a serious decline in our diet today - medieval peasants in northern and western Europe from cultures with high meat consumption have always been producing large men), the supposed advantage of superior size fades away too when you're speaking about average peoples.

Assuming you don't luck out and pick 50 heavy protein Chad lads who are all about non-stop bulking and lifting, chances are you'll end up with a modern person from urban and urbane society, used to a sedentary office lifestyle. They'll have been actively taught that self-sufficiency is actually a dangerous thing to pursue and will lack the most basic of survival skills or instincts, right down to fighting in groups or knowing how to cook. They'll likely be malnourished either by being doused in corn syrup, soy and all the wonderful chemical additives & chemicals of modern agriculture and food processing, and unlike the peasants, the modern sample will include those who are severely underweight, underweight, vegan, overweight, obese and hyper-obese. The likelihood of the modern sample being hurt by the greater proportion of elderly compared to the peasants will also work against the modern sample. Knowing military strategy will be entirely worthless without the means to execute it, at which point it becomes a question of from which country are you selecting the modern sample. In this case, I believe the country best capable of defeating their medieval counterparts would be the Americans, as their ordinary population has a high percentage of war veterans who would serve as an immediate and effective nucleus for leadership. The only other downside would be convincing the 50 modern folk into killing the other 50, as there has been a general decline in civilian bloodlust, so unless the modern 50 are sampled from a football club it's not looking good.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Rowanas on September 28, 2018, 06:02:30 pm
Hmm. Eh, it's only like a year old~
Egan gestures and the thread begins to move!

50 medieval European peasants vs 50 first-world-country citizens from 2018. Both sides are armed with cheap steel spears and have no real combat experience. Who wins and why?
Do the modern folks beat out the medieval ones with the strength of being bigger and less malnourished? Or will they be at a disadvantage due to being coddled and poorly-exercised? Maybe the currentyear-ians can vaguely recall some battle strategies from high school history?
Depends what peasants, from what country and what time period. English freeholders, malnourished Polish serfs, Alpenine Germans, French farmers, Corsican villagers, Russian frontier peasants e.t.c. all have varying degrees of nutrition and combat experience depending on where they lived and when they lived. In almost all cases I will always give the advantage to the peasant.
The peasant is always working physical labour, while the peasants who weren't typically physical labourers were usually violent people when violence was required (English millers and bakers being frontline soldiers in the peasant's revolt for example). They were conscripted to fight at a moment's notice, with the particular mental and physical preparations needed to kill enemies which does not exist in civil society today. It reminds me of a British army officer being asked how he thought the British army today would fare against the French or British army of the Napoleonic wars, during a re-enactment of the Napoleonic wars, assuming they had equal equipment standards. The army officer said that today's soldiers were better shots and bigger men, but the men of yesteryear were much more resilient, especially where killing by the bayonet was the standard. Couple that with peasants having a better diet than today (food security and lack of variety is not the same as food quality, of which there has been a serious decline in our diet today - medieval peasants in northern and western Europe from cultures with high meat consumption have always been producing large men), the supposed advantage of superior size fades away too when you're speaking about average peoples.

Assuming you don't luck out and pick 50 heavy protein Chad lads who are all about non-stop bulking and lifting, chances are you'll end up with a modern person from urban and urbane society, used to a sedentary office lifestyle. They'll have been actively taught that self-sufficiency is actually a dangerous thing to pursue and will lack the most basic of survival skills or instincts, right down to fighting in groups or knowing how to cook. They'll likely be malnourished either by being doused in corn syrup, soy and all the wonderful chemical additives & chemicals of modern agriculture and food processing, and unlike the peasants, the modern sample will include those who are severely underweight, underweight, vegan, overweight, obese and hyper-obese. The likelihood of the modern sample being hurt by the greater proportion of elderly compared to the peasants will also work against the modern sample. Knowing military strategy will be entirely worthless without the means to execute it, at which point it becomes a question of from which country are you selecting the modern sample. In this case, I believe the country best capable of defeating their medieval counterparts would be the Americans, as their ordinary population has a high percentage of war veterans who would serve as an immediate and effective nucleus for leadership. The only other downside would be convincing the 50 modern folk into killing the other 50, as there has been a general decline in civilian bloodlust, so unless the modern 50 are sampled from a football club it's not looking good.

I dunno.  Peasant revolts still comprised of a relatively small number of peasants compared to the total peasant population. large, kill-capable men might have been the order of the day, but I can't say for certain.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: USEC_OFFICER on September 29, 2018, 09:08:45 am
The peasants have spent their lives toiling in the fields and performing manual labour. They are more desensitized to violence and blood due to slaughtering their own animals and preparing the cuts of meat (though this I'm less certain about and probably varies more across time and location).

A modern human might be better fed, but they don't have the endurance or strength of the peasants and will undoubtedly be more hesitant about killing. Knowing more about tactics probably means very little with only 50 people armed with only spears.

Though with all that being said, the losers are probably going to be the guys who break first. Most causalities in medieval/ancient battles came after one side turned and ran after all. So the edge is probably towards the peasants, if only because the modern humans don't want to participate in these blood sports.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 09:33:20 am
Unless they be sports ball hooligans
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: USEC_OFFICER on September 29, 2018, 09:36:05 am
Well that goes without saying. If the Byzantines had 50 sportsball hooligans armed with steel spears then Constantinople would have never fell. Alas. It was not to be.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on September 29, 2018, 09:36:39 am
I disagree with the idea of the peasants as more ok with violence. There was more violence around them, but if you look at classical culture you see a lot of lamenting and wretching over it. All those Quaker pacifists came from somewhere, after all.

Modern first-worlders are often unrealistic about violence because of a lack of experience - but that means that in this instance, all those small business tyrants who spend their free time on Facebook demanding drug users get the death penalty are going to dive right in and spear some fucking peasants. The PTSD comes later.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 09:40:29 am
Should we also assume that they're using the same technology? After all, guns would still beat spears and bow+arrow in terms of deadlyness, though it only matters if the gunwielder gets the shot off first and bow+arrow has the advantage of being wholly silent. Otherwise, the two ranged weapons are on roughly equal ground.

While edged weapons would be more durable today, their basic design has changed little in millenia.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Madman198237 on September 29, 2018, 09:42:25 am
The problem of malnourishment has been brought up, but I would like to say again that it's a big one. If you choose only fit young adults from each population, then "who wins" is all down to what modern country you pick from and who's peasants you pick from. Heck, depending on which YEAR you pick the peasants from, it will change a lot.

But no, they weren't somehow more homicidally insane or whatever, they had the same lack of desire to go killing as we do. The difference probably comes from the fact that if someone DOES decide to start killing, in medieval times it tended to be close enough that you either defended yourself or died, unlike with bullets where you shoot back or you don't, and as far as your terrified, frozen brain can figure in the midst of combat, shooting back doesn't actually improve your chances of survival.


Guns are much more deadly and much longer-ranged and much easier to use. Also, bullets aren't stopped by padded cloth. Arrows at any range other than "point blank" don't do well against clothing. Cloth armor was the standard for millennia in all places across the world.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 09:46:22 am
I disagree with the idea of the peasants as more ok with violence. There was more violence around them, but if you look at classical culture you see a lot of lamenting and wretching over it. All those Quaker pacifists came from somewhere, after all.
And they were run out of Britain by less lamenting and wretching peasants who were more keen self-defence, burning witches and raise angry mobs to kill other communities. Classical aint medieval, and literate nobility lamenting war =/= peasants who were more than willing to murder surrendered enemies

Modern first-worlders are often unrealistic about violence because of a lack of experience - but that means that in this instance, all those small business tyrants who spend their free time on Facebook demanding drug users get the death penalty are going to dive right in and spear some fucking peasants. The PTSD comes later.
How many coked up business tyrants are you going to get in your sample of 50? Unless we get to choose who is in the 50, at which point we're drafting a dream team of 50 regular people. The most coked up business tyrants, the most impulsive gangsters, the sort of sports hooligans for whom violence is a matter of first resort

Well that goes without saying. If the Byzantines had 50 sportsball hooligans armed with steel spears then Constantinople would have never fell. Alas. It was not to be.
The Varangian Club
Although they did have chariot hooligans
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 09:48:20 am
I think we're assuming none of them are wearing armor other than basic clothing worn at the time. The peasants might be wearing more durable leather based clothing rather than cloth of modern era since they'd generally be wearing more work-durable clothing, but it won't help against stabbing type weapons, maybe a little with slashing.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 09:48:48 am
I think we're assuming none of them are wearing armor other than basic clothing worn at the time. The peasants might be wearing more durable leather based clothing rather than cloth of modern era since they'd generally be wearing more work-durable clothing, but it won't help against stabbing type weapons, maybe a little with slashing.
I assumed they had equal clothing standards
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 09:51:40 am
I think we're assuming none of them are wearing armor other than basic clothing worn at the time. The peasants might be wearing more durable leather based clothing rather than cloth of modern era since they'd generally be wearing more work-durable clothing, but it won't help against stabbing type weapons, maybe a little with slashing.
I assumed they had equal clothing standards

For all practical purposes, yeah, we're probably assuming equal armor statuses. Once you get different armors into the mix, the outcome changes dramatically depending on who has what. And I was responding to madman who mentioned padded cloth armor.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 09:58:09 am
For all practical purposes, yeah, we're probably assuming equal armor statuses. Once you get different armors into the mix, the outcome changes dramatically depending on who has what. And I was responding to madman who mentioned padded cloth armor.
It'd be bloody hilarious if that sample of 50 included modern survivalists walking around always armoured and camouflaged
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Culise on September 29, 2018, 10:21:55 am
The Varangian Club
Although they did have chariot hooligans
True, it's rather a horse apiece.  Soccer hooligans may have started a war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_War), but the Blues and Greens burned half of Constantinople and almost brought down an emperor (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nika_riots). 
And yes, I do know that the core of both was serious economic problems, in the former due to the expulsion of refugees/immigrants and the latter due to serious taxation problems.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Parsely on September 29, 2018, 12:37:35 pm
I don't think peasants would be any less sensitive to violence than your typical modern manual laborer. Even today, even with modern people who we have the most accessible, objective, and precise information on, regardless of if they are combat experienced, unpredictable things happen when people start killing each other at close range. Regardless of the individual or time period, when people start dying everyone thinks about running.

Relevant video. Eventually he talks about levying. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBxJtcjJ7qA)

Peasants are most likely to win because of their obligations according to the feudal system. They are obliged to be levied, which means they will be prepared for this exact kind of fight. They will have trained in a formation and practiced with the weapons they're going to use in this battle, spears. Modern people have never fought in formation or trained with spears unless they're HEMA practitioners, which is unlikely.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 12:46:11 pm
I suppose it depends on what period in the feudal system we're talking about. Historically, it effectively ended by the 16th century when professional armies became common, but it lingered in places well into the 19th century. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feudalism#End_of_European_feudalism_(1500%E2%80%931850s)) So, again, it's dependent entirely on when and where you're getting said peasants/serfs from.

Then again, the first professional or standing armies in Europe (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_army) were from the Ottomans in the 14th century, which is late in the medieval era. In that same article, Britain didn't start having professional armies until well into the 17th century.

And of course, depending on the modern country (since some have mandatory military service), you can very well have modern people with military service. Though it'd be nothing like the melee that said levies would be trained for.

I suppose we're also completely ignoring any cultural (not neccesarily religious, 25 French and 25 English peasants might not get along too well, especially if they're from periods where the two countries were at each others throats, which is most of the middle ages to be honest) conflicts and linguistic barriers here? It'd complicate the scenario to hell if we did.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 29, 2018, 01:45:32 pm
I refuse to waste brain-time thinking about this scenario, but there are a few misleading things here. In the medieval era in Europe (let's say it ends at the end of the 14th century) a vanishingly small portion of a random sample of peasants would have any military experience. It was in the early modern period that army sizes as a portion of population became significant and war became more common than peace (and even then, the exceptional states that achieved a high portion of population under arms wouldn't have ever peaked much above 4%). Little wars were fought often in the medieval era, but they generally involved smaller armies active for short periods of time, and not a whole lot of combat (just skirmishes and sieges mostly). In the early modern period, army sizes grew incredibly (in greater proportion than the increase in population) and wars in general became much deadlier.

"Standing armies" also didn't really exist in significant numbers until the 18th century. Before then they were generally very small contingents that the larger states kept around, meant mostly to just "stiffen" the main body of forces by preserving some level of training (and not much at that). Incidentally, the best way to think about armies in the early modern period (in Europe) is to imagine what you would get if militaries today were privatized by psychotic neoliberals; they weren't "professionals" and they weren't "levies", they were for the most part privately contracted regiments owned by a captain or aristocrat who paid for all expenses themselves with the expectation of regular payment from the government, with varying intentions of profit (you can imagine the sorts of things this led to).

Civil society also became more violent in the early modern period than it was in the middle ages, and the two get conflated in popular imagination. Some causes: the reformation brought with it tremendous civil strife, and popular superstitious activity like the burning of witches only became significant in the early modern period; famines brought on by a changing climate, increased taxation/rents, and the extension of the market economy led to riots; the creation for more or less the first time of a permanent underclass of homeless vagrants and the explosion in crime due to more extensive and permanent poverty in general; an increasingly draconian and violent reaction from governments to that increase in crime, and the need to preserve the hierarchical order; and a general erosion of the reciprocal social fabric that existing under feudalism.

The romantic notion of a burly hard peasant hardened by hard labor done hardly is also misleading. Long hours of manual labor doesn't translate into being super buff; if you look at most modern peasants still using unmechanized methods about as primitive, they're usually scrawny. The vast majority of a random sample of peasants would have indeed eaten less and of less variety than we do today, with little meat; generally the only peasants who ate well were the ones who were not crushed under massive rents, which were the more isolated ones that made up a smaller portion of population. Incidentally, the people who would have military experience in most periods would have also been the people who were poorest and most unfit, as in areas where there was some sort of a quota system for recruitment or even a levy, it was the people most disadvantaged in society who the rest would shift that burden onto.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 02:06:50 pm
Incidentally, the best way to think about armies in the early modern period (in Europe) is to imagine what you would get if militaries today were privatized by psychotic neoliberals; they weren't "professionals" and they weren't "levies", they were for the most part privately contracted regiments owned by a captain or aristocrat who paid for all expenses themselves with the expectation of regular payment from the government, with varying intentions of profit (you can imagine the sorts of things this led to).
Nervous laughter
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 02:09:12 pm
Incidentally, the best way to think about armies in the early modern period (in Europe) is to imagine what you would get if militaries today were privatized by psychotic neoliberals; they weren't "professionals" and they weren't "levies", they were for the most part privately contracted regiments owned by a captain or aristocrat who paid for all expenses themselves with the expectation of regular payment from the government, with varying intentions of profit (you can imagine the sorts of things this led to).
Nervous laughter

So, in so many words, mercenaries.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 02:10:48 pm
Worse: Private security consultants
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 02:25:43 pm
Isn't that just the modern euphenism for mercenary?
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: WealthyRadish on September 29, 2018, 02:27:23 pm
I'd say mercenaries were worse. The military contractors expected their government to be constantly in arrears and missing payments, and their primary function from the perspective of the state was really to absorb debts during wartime that could be repaid later. The contractors were also usually subjects of the government and were recruiting other subjects, and so had some stake in the peacetime resolution of the conflict, while mercenaries were foreigners filling out what were often very narrow terms of a contract. The contractors scammed the shit out of the governments and their soldiers and pillaged with the best of them, but could go without being paid. If mercenaries didn't get paid, they were liable to force a battle or sack a town for the plunder, or just leave.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: smjjames on September 29, 2018, 02:37:56 pm
True, the earlier mercenaries mainly filled a vacuum before modern armies since there really wasn't a permanent professional standing army that the government could fall back on and use to kick their asses if they misbehaved.

Now, they're almost entirely held accountable by the government (unless said government is corrupt and is using the mercs for shady stuff, or we're talking about ones not involved with the government) when you're talking about military contractors. And these days, if they try to pillage, they ABSOLUTELY WILL get their asses kicked.
Title: Re: Armchair General General - /AGG
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 29, 2018, 02:39:08 pm
Isn't that just the modern euphenism for mercenary?
Mercenary captains but more or less yes

*EDIT
Really activates my almonds thinking about the EIC and the US flag, there's already issues with holding private war boys accountable (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/08/iraq-afghanistan-contractor-pentagon-obama/495731/)