Bay 12 Games Forum

Unless I miss my guess, every roll gives you a 0.3 chance of a success and a 0.1 chance of getting another go. That next go has a 0.3 chance of success and a 0.1 chance of another go, and so it goes infinite.

That means we can write a sum for it, which (since our numbers are all <1) should converge and give us a non-infinite number.

My brain is too fogged to go to first principles right now (>_<) so I will just present without comment that since we're multiplying by 0.1 every time we have an event, the sum of probabilities of the events is

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sigma (n to infinity) 0.1^n. Which we can multiply by 0.3, since we're counting up successes not the chance to go infinite, and we get

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0.3 * (sigma (n to infinity) 0.1^n), and then we can add a 0.3 for our initial event.

Because convergent series was a long time in my past, I plugged it into WolframAlpha which tells me that every roll has a 1/3 chance of yielding a success. Assuming I did the maths right. And that more-or-less lines up with your intuition.

Quote from: prefuzek on July 06, 2021, 08:41:39 pm

Quick hypothesis: Jack and FoU are scum, know that this is the most likely PoE for town, and he's trying to sow confusion.

Quick hypothesis: I hate you all, and I'm sick of playing with you.  I've been suspected all game by everyone, and now its going to cost the majority of you the game.  I think, at this point, I'm just going to claim to be the 3rd member of the mafia team, and change my win condition to match theirs.

ATTENTION TOWN: I was town, but am now considering myself to be Mafia-aligned.  Ergo, when you mislynch me, I shall call it a win.  And a jolly Fuck You to you all. Die in ditch.

If I was wrong, scum would've quick hammered my vote by now.

At some point today (game day) I'd like to see prefuzek make a case for whom he thinks is scum. The cases yesterday were fine but a town case is easy for scum to fake (since they know it's true anyway). pref, if you're town, this would really help me to read you.

But if FOU and I are the same alignment, as Toonyman said, then I don't want you voting FOU either.  I'm town, if Toony was right about us sharing alignment, then FOU is town also.  Which also means a mislynch.