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Finally... => General Discussion => Topic started by: McTraveller on January 26, 2020, 07:56:50 am

Title: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 26, 2020, 07:56:50 am
So many conversations in other threads end up talking about economics.  It's probably about time we have a dedicated thread for it.

Minimum wage, UBI, everyone-owns-everything, nobody-owns-anything, monetary theory, employment, AI, tax theory, cash is king, but barter is ace!  Have at it, for this one low-low price!


EDIT: I guess I should have proposed an initial discussion... how about this one, from reading some other recent threads:


Under what conditions is advertising a net economic benefit and/or when does it become a detriment?  Some alternative phrasing: is all advertising bad, or can it be good?  I'm personally astonished that some of the biggest companies today by revenue are simply advertising companies.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: WealthyRadish on January 26, 2020, 05:05:20 pm
Under what conditions is advertising a net economic benefit and/or when does it become a detriment?  Some alternative phrasing: is all advertising bad, or can it be good?  I'm personally astonished that some of the biggest companies today by revenue are simply advertising companies.

I think originally the most apparent argument in favor of permitting the existence of commercial advertisement is that it can be used to stimulate consumption of new products, giving companies greater power and incentive to create new markets.

The more obvious argument today in favor it would be that it facilitates a massive new digital market in services that are free to the user but paid for by advertisement.

Personally I think both these justifications are a crock of grade A horseshit, and it should be banned or restricted to purely local physical spaces.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 26, 2020, 05:59:54 pm
What do you guy think of the Jevons paradox? I learned about it when I encountered 3 dozen Chinese men named Jevon who didn't know why they were named Jevon. It took much searching and the Jevon's paradox was the only thing close to explaining the Jevonspiracy.

Basically the paradox goes that when technological advances make power output of machines more efficient, thus reducing consumption of fuel/electricity, it stands to reason that consumption goes down. Yet the consumption increases, because the owner of the new efficient machines reduce their costs by consuming less, and thus use their new funds to expand operations & make more money.

So how do you get investors to stop expanding operations within a capitalistic model, given that "green" innovations which increase efficiency or renewable energy production will not stop human investors from increasing absolute output & absolute consumption? And if the paradox cannot be resolved within a capitalist model, what modifications or changes are to be made?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: MrRoboto75 on January 26, 2020, 06:43:05 pm
So how do you get investors to stop expanding operations within a capitalistic model, given that "green" innovations which increase efficiency or renewable energy production will not stop human investors from increasing absolute output & absolute consumption? And if the paradox cannot be resolved within a capitalist model, what modifications or changes are to be made?

Capitalism wants infinite growth to please investors with new short term profits.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: MetalSlimeHunt on January 26, 2020, 06:44:54 pm
it's almost as if capitalism is bad
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on January 26, 2020, 07:55:24 pm
Eh, I'd say the goal of "profit above all else" is what's bad, not the mechanism to achieve it.  Capitalism is a method, not a goal.  Or, the original meaning of it was at any rate.  And capitalism, being a very efficient mechanism, is really good at "profit above all else."  There's nothing inherent to capitalism that says that "individual profit" needs to be the goal instead of, say, collective profit.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: feelotraveller on January 27, 2020, 05:00:48 am
Um, to quote the opening line from wikipedia
"Capitalism is an economic system based on the private ownership of the means of production and their operation for profit."
I take it that's pretty uncontroversial, even around here.  :)

As to Jevons, the answer to that paradox is to shift the focus from production to consumption.  If nobody is consuming production will drop. 

Advertising can be thought of as a way to supercharge consumption, only succeeding where something is purchased that would not have been otherwise.  Yes is it 99% evil.  :P
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 27, 2020, 06:01:06 am
I'd be really intrigued to see what happens if advertising were to be banned. Black market advertising, a switch wholly to sponsored "influencers," streets free of burgerpunk aesthetic, Facebook finds new ways to sell your information... Maybe a reduction in consumption?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on January 27, 2020, 07:09:32 am
Under what conditions is advertising a net economic benefit and/or when does it become a detriment?  Some alternative phrasing: is all advertising bad, or can it be good?  I'm personally astonished that some of the biggest companies today by revenue are simply advertising companies.

I think originally the most apparent argument in favor of permitting the existence of commercial advertisement is that it can be used to stimulate consumption of new products, giving companies greater power and incentive to create new markets.

The more obvious argument today in favor it would be that it facilitates a massive new digital market in services that are free to the user but paid for by advertisement.

Personally I think both these justifications are a crock of grade A horseshit, and it should be banned or restricted to purely local physical spaces.

There was an interesting outcome when tobacco advertising was banned in the UK. The tobacco companies made more money.

If you think in terms of game theory and the prisoner's dilemma then it makes perfect sense:

There are a limited number of smokers, and companies advertise so that they'll get a bigger share of this market. However, if no company advertised they'd each get about the same number of smokers as if every company advertised, assuming each company has "optimal" advertising. It's the same as the "Prisoner's Dilemma" because if all tobacco companies agree not to advertise then they save money, however, the "don't advertise" state is unstable because no matter whether the other company chooses (advertise / don't-advertise), it's in your personal interest to choose "advertise", and even if all the big firms enter into a "don't advertise" pact then that only leaves them vulnerable to a new market entrant coming in.

Effectively, the law change of banning the advertising forced all tobacco companies into the "don't advertise" option, which is effectively "forced cooperation" in game theory / Prisoner's Dilemma terminology. But, at the same time, banning advertising means that new entrants into the market have literally zero chance of getting off the ground.

Personally I'm on the fence about whether it should be banned. There are several possible down-sides.

First, it would be very hard for new players to enter a marketplace if there was no advertising allowed. Traditional brand-recognition would be everything. It would benefit the largest players in the market, similar to how the UK's ban on tobacco advertising actually helped the established tobacco firms.

Second, it would be impossible to enforce. They would sneak it in with paid endorsements, so while there would be no "overt" advertising, it would just massively boost the "advertorial" market. So you no longer have "advertising", you have "advercontent" and that's all the content you have, because nobody can afford to make anything else.

Third, if you're using a free service and are annoyed that there are adverts, so you want to ban them, then, hello, welcome to the new improved world where this service just doesn't exist in the first place.

EDIT: fourth, if it applied to something like video game advertising, then that would mean the types of games that cost a lot to produce just aren't economically viable anymore. No more GTA V type games, and massive layoffs. The same with filmmaking. But it'll also crash the indie market.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on January 27, 2020, 07:43:36 am
PTW, I don’t have much to add right now
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: WealthyRadish on January 27, 2020, 02:10:31 pm

...

Personally I'm on the fence about whether it should be banned. There are several possible down-sides.

First, it would be very hard for new players to enter a marketplace if there was no advertising allowed. Traditional brand-recognition would be everything. It would benefit the largest players in the market, similar to how the UK's ban on tobacco advertising actually helped the established tobacco firms.

Second, it would be impossible to enforce. They would sneak it in with paid endorsements, so while there would be no "overt" advertising, it would just massively boost the "advertorial" market. So you no longer have "advertising", you have "advercontent" and that's all the content you have, because nobody can afford to make anything else.

Third, if you're using a free service and are annoyed that there are adverts, so you want to ban them, then, hello, welcome to the new improved world where this service just doesn't exist in the first place.

EDIT: fourth, if it applied to something like video game advertising, then that would mean the types of games that cost a lot to produce just aren't economically viable anymore. No more GTA V type games, and massive layoffs. The same with filmmaking. But it'll also crash the indie market.

I've thought about these things as well, but ultimately I don't think it's worth it compared to the harm and expense advertisement creates (not just for the companies as you mentioned, but also the collective burden of wasting social product wasted on industry together with the personal harm inflicted on people by the industry).

For the first point, since the general tendency under industrial capitalism in most sectors is toward domination by a cartel or monopoly, with or without an advertisement ban, I think there's something bigger at stake than just one more marginal factor that slows or accelerates that. This is why in my mind that argument reduces to whether or not advertisement is worthwhile for the sake of encouraging new markets, which would depend on how a person feels about unsustainable growth, artificially induced demand for crap people don't need, and our ramshackle economic structure that falls apart if the rent-seeking rich holding the world hostage don't earn their 4% per annum or whatever (weighed against the genuine benefit of new products toward overall well-being).

With enforcement, I don't think it would be very difficult. All that would really be required is framing the law in such a way that advertisement is considered an anti-competitive practice vulnerable to litigation from other firms in the industry. I think the international copyright and patent regime makes a good comparison; it's a completely artificial and unnatural creation impossible to maintain without imposing the threat of state punishment, with complicated and blurry as hell legal definitions that often get enforced arbitrarily, but it more or less works (for its purpose) because the rights can be enforced with weaponized litigation from the companies themselves.

...

The free digital service thing is another interesting point. You mention this:

Third, if you're using a free service and are annoyed that there are adverts, so you want to ban them, then, hello, welcome to the new improved world where this service just doesn't exist in the first place.

-- and I have to wonder, is that actually a bad thing? Should things like youtube, facebook, etc exist? Hindsight is 20/20, and it's a stretch to say that we should have banned advertisement so that these things never formed, but really, I think things would be better without them.

I think youtube is maybe the best example to consider. The question is really a technical one: is there any compelling reason why we should do all of our video sharing over the internet through a single centralized multinational corporation's monopoly? Do we need their servers to do this? I don't think we do.

If advertisements were banned and the "user-created content platform" model was basically impossible to make profitable, people would still want to share videos over the internet. The incredible usefulness of the internet would have still stimulated increases in bandwidth and networking technology. The difference is that instead of a monopoly or cartel buying up obscene amounts of server space so they can control everything, we'd probably instead have a decentralized system for these "user networks" like youtube, facebook, etc. We would probably have improved peer-to-peer protocols written and improved by academics and non-profits with the sole aim of improving usefulness (with no profit motive required), rather than closed-door research done by Google or whoever to ever expand their control and entrench their userbase which is conditional on their profit from doing so.

But again, hindsight is 20/20, and it would be outrageous to think that we should have anticipated this and banned advertisement of all things as the solution, and obviously it's too late to ever happen anyway. But I still think things would be better without it.



Edit:
Really though, what gets me when thinking about advertisements is imagining life without them. The world be be a much less physically ugly place to live in, it would be easier to enjoy and take part in cultural work, and I think the market itself would have a better chance of standing on merit. It's particularly damning in my mind to think that the primary purpose of advertisement isn't even to communicate any useful information, but only to impart a psychological impression that creates superficial recognition and the illusion of trustworthiness. What seems to me to be many dubious economic effects along with this is just a complement to the personal harm I think it creates.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on January 28, 2020, 08:05:04 am
The free digital service thing is another interesting point. You mention this:

Third, if you're using a free service and are annoyed that there are adverts, so you want to ban them, then, hello, welcome to the new improved world where this service just doesn't exist in the first place.

-- and I have to wonder, is that actually a bad thing? Should things like youtube, facebook, etc exist? Hindsight is 20/20, and it's a stretch to say that we should have banned advertisement so that these things never formed, but really, I think things would be better without them.

I think youtube is maybe the best example to consider. The question is really a technical one: is there any compelling reason why we should do all of our video sharing over the internet through a single centralized multinational corporation's monopoly? Do we need their servers to do this? I don't think we do.

If advertisements were banned and the "user-created content platform" model was basically impossible to make profitable, people would still want to share videos over the internet. The incredible usefulness of the internet would have still stimulated increases in bandwidth and networking technology. The difference is that instead of a monopoly or cartel buying up obscene amounts of server space so they can control everything, we'd probably instead have a decentralized system for these "user networks" like youtube, facebook, etc. We would probably have improved peer-to-peer protocols written and improved by academics and non-profits with the sole aim of improving usefulness (with no profit motive required), rather than closed-door research done by Google or whoever to ever expand their control and entrench their userbase which is conditional on their profit from doing so.

Sure, but then nobody could afford their internet providers charge for bandwidth, so you couldn't actually allow streaming on your own personal site. The reality would instead be that some economy-of-scale provider like Youtube would still have all the videos, except it would also charge subscriptions and charge for upload space, meaning that only cashed-up people could upload.

What I think you're missing is that it's not just digital services that grew because advertising was a thing, it's pretty much every single 20th century medium of communication as well. TV is the best analogy. You have the choice of free-to-air TV, supported by advertising, or you have the walled-garden of the cable TV companies, supported by subscriptions. Remove advertising, and traditional broadcast radio for one would be an immediate casualty, because there's no real way to charge subscriptions for broadcast radio. I guess you could argue poor people would be better off if free TV wasn't a thing, but I'd argue otherwise. TV is social literacy for a lot of uneducated people. Without free broadcast TV, then things may be even more backwards than they are now. You really think they'd be reading books if they didn't have TV? Nope. Mostly, they'd be drinking more alcohol, and driving around more looking for foreign-looking types to beat up.

Also, newspapers without advertising would face immediate collapse. To avert that, they'd raise prices a lot, which would drive down circulation numbers, but they'd focus on articles that appeal to a more wealthy select number of readers. You might argue that this collapse in readership would lead to more "small" publications taking off, but it really wouldn't. If they can't afford the New York Times, but want to read the New York Times, they're not going to throw equivalent money at some local socialist zine that's been xeroxed at your local copy shop.

The reality of an advertising ban would mean the collapse of the mediums supported by advertising and a massive shrinking of the number of creatives who can get ahead in the market. This would not lead to somehow boosting the number of progressive voices that get heard: they're generally unprofitable but are supported for the sake of diverse voices. The thing is: the fringe voices will be the first to go in a world of walled gardens and where all content needs to be profitable. The people who'd actually thrive in such a world are right-wing billionaires with deep pockets who are able to print newspapers and upload videos at a loss, but it's paid back because there's a strong editorial bent in all their "articles" that supports whatever they're trying to manipulate the populace to believe.

Sure, you could still stick your stuff up on blogspot, but they'll start charging subscriptions too, and you'll get all of 3 readers for your content. That's why those sorts of writers go work for advertising-supported sites like the Huffington Post writing about social justice issues rather than a personal blog - because they get heard.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on January 28, 2020, 09:19:31 am
We should go back to a barter economy and artisans. Important industry/resource extraction operations should be performed by public servants drawn from a pool of mandatory 2 to 4 year civil servants that all citizens are required to at one time be a part of.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on January 28, 2020, 09:52:45 am
We should go back to a barter economy and artisans. Important industry/resource extraction operations should be performed by public servants drawn from a pool of mandatory 2 to 4 year civil servants that all citizens are required to at one time be a part of.
This sounds interesting, thow3 who haven’t done this kind of stuff (probably lots of people, including myself) can be trained by this3 who have done this stufff before, and can h3lp train new people
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on January 28, 2020, 08:53:01 pm
Barter is terribly inefficient, but it does always work as a last resort*.

Artisan society sounds cool, but then it gives rise to guilds.


*
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on January 28, 2020, 09:44:32 pm
I remember learning about a place, I wish I remembered the name, that had various crafting guilds. An apprentice would have to craft something much better than their previous works to show their master so they could train apprentices, this was called a masterpiece.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on January 28, 2020, 11:22:38 pm
I remember learning about a place, I wish I remembered the name, that had various crafting guilds. An apprentice would have to craft something much better than their previous works to show their master so they could train apprentices, this was called a masterpiece.

Many Medieval/Early Renaissance trade guilds were like this, especially among carpenters or anyone else that was producing work on a similar or smaller scale.

Barter is terribly inefficient, but it does always work as a last resort*.

Artisan society sounds cool, but then it gives rise to guilds.


*
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

TBH, inefficiency is not a bad thing. The pursuant of efficiency more often results in higher expectations than a reduction in time or effort required. Life isn't efficient, and the more we try to make it that way the worse everyone ends up.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on January 28, 2020, 11:33:07 pm
Yes, looking back it was a history class, so it probably wasn’t talking about a specific place
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: WealthyRadish on January 28, 2020, 11:58:19 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

I think you misread my example with youtube (though it's a bit of a tangent to the topic of advertising). My point wasn't that society would be better off without video sharing, it was that we could have almost exactly the same thing as youtube without needing a centralized server hosting the content if it were done with peer-to-peer streaming rather than server-based streaming (an effectively zero-cost system given current user bandwidth availability).

There's an interesting torrent client called Tribler (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribler) that was developed a while back which I think illustrates this (but there are similar efforts for peer-to-peer social networks of other types). They created an expanded bittorrent protocol and client to go with it that has the essential features that youtube provides: video streaming, persistent user channels, searchable content, content filters, and even a recommendation algorithm, entirely peer-to-peer and without a centralized server (except the cheap trackers that don't handle any serious data).

The problem is that it has all the features (the rudiments of them, anyway) but doesn't have any users or content due to youtube currently occupying that natural monopoly (and it being a relatively undeveloped and unknown area of networking). For the same reason that a competing commercial video sharing site has practically zero chance of competing with youtube a decentralized alternative like this will never get off the ground, but if the ad-based social network model was made impossible then an alternative like Tribler would probably take over with very little loss in quality given time and attention.

I say it could be almost the same, because of course there wouldn't be any real way for users who create content to collect the portion of ad revenue they've relatively recently started getting from youtube, but that's really not essential to the service working. A decentralized system like this would also be fully open and transparent without any data mining etc., and the very idea that something like this could exist at near-zero marginal cost indicates that the profit that a site like youtube generates and the costs they incur are a complete dead weight that benefits only the shareholders and not society at large.



I don't think TV is a very good example in favor of ad-driven media. My understanding is that most people today in countries with the infrastructure don't make use of free television over the air, with the cable or satellite subscription model being dominant here in the US. If they couldn't show ads they would make less money, but I think the experimenting that netflix was doing a while back with advertisements is a good example to look at when considering what television without ads would really mean.

If netflix were to decide to start running ads what they're effectively doing is trusting that they can sell an inferior service without losing customers, and keep people paying a subscription for a service that also advertises to them (like the cable TV model as a whole currently does). A very profitable company selling a strictly worse service for the same price is usually only really possible if they possess power over the market that distorts consumer behavior, i.e. they're not worried about competition succeeding at providing the older better service that is already known to be profitable. Cable providers and the TV networks are the in the same boat through their regional monopolies and exclusive content; they can sell an inferior service polluted with obnoxious advertisements and charge people at the same time, because they possess some form of limited monopoly. If the ads were cut, TV wouldn't cease to exist (at the very least the "premium" channels are evidence of that, but it shouldn't be thought of that all content would be forced to be of that type and quality). The crappiest content (which is usually the most saturated with advertisements) would get cut, but any actual loss would mostly eat into the profits of monopoly that are already above what they would be getting in a fair market.

Radio is a tougher one. It is hard to imagine mass radio broadcasting getting off the ground without advertising, but at least today since the technology and infrastructure has been established I'm not sure that it's strictly necessary. I'm currently in a city with only around 150,000 people, and anecdotally there are 3 news/music public radio stations I know of that air zero or very few advertisements (relying on donations instead). Radio wouldn't go away, but I agree that it be hard hit.

With print/article-driven journalism, I think most agree that it's already dying horribly, and I don't think the last-ditch life support system that advertisement currently provides will save it. When I see the NYT as you mentioned, I see a zombie wearing a venerable brand's skin begging me to turn off adblock, not something with much of a future ahead of it or can be expected to maintain an expensive level of quality (real investigative journalism etc) into the future with or without advertisements.

...of course, this whole discussion is hypothetical, since ads will never actually be banned, but I don't think it's correct to say that modern media would disappear without it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on January 31, 2020, 08:56:34 pm
Other industries to consider: insurance.

I'm still not sure about this one - at least the modern incarnation of it.  It feels like another prisoner's dilemma: so many people have it, that prices are now set assuming you have insurance, so if you don't have insurance you get penalized.  I'd extend "insurance" to include things like guaranteed loans to, so this would also include things like US secondary education costs. Maybe even funeral costs.

On the flip side, insurance is good about defraying the individual cost of certain events.  I still think, though, that it may increase the total aggregate cost.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: scriver on February 01, 2020, 08:29:59 am
Yes, looking back it was a history class, so it probably wasn’t talking about a specific place

No, if it was a history class, it is very likely it was talking about a specific place, and then forcibly extrapolating that place's customs and law to every other place in the vicinity -- see also freudality 101


Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on February 01, 2020, 08:38:56 am
Yes, looking back it was a history class, so it probably wasn’t talking about a specific place

No, if it was a history class, it is very likely it was talking about a specific place, and then forcibly extrapolating that place's customs and law to every other place in the vicinity -- see also freudality 101
I wish I could remember the name of the place it was talking about
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 01, 2020, 08:41:50 am
ptw
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on February 01, 2020, 08:43:42 am
Barter is terribly inefficient, but it does always work as a last resort*.

Artisan society sounds cool, but then it gives rise to guilds.

According to a number of articles, no "barter society", as described by Adam Smith and similar as a precursor to money existing has ever been observed among any of the known societies at various levels development. So the whole theory that "barter economy was inefficient, so we invented money" is a kind of economic straw man that was created after the fact.

The rise of money probably had more to do with the rise of governments and taxation than anything else. Money allows you to convert the various forms of goods into a standardized good for taxation purposes, and the fact that the *government accepts money* gives it indirect trading value. So the original value of metal money may not be that different to fiat money. It was valuable because you can pay your taxes with it. Let's face it: gold is kinda nice, but you need some sort of external incentive to explain how people initially agreed to trade something useful / edible for a shiny yellow rock. Note that tribes that don't have a high level of complex development don't generally seem to think gold is anything that special. It's only when you start to get complex government that it gains some meaning.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on February 01, 2020, 12:05:54 pm
I'd say that the lack of "barter societies" is pretty strong evidence that barter is not efficient enough to scale to whatever would be large enough to constitute a "barter society."

I definitely see the correlation of the "rise of money" with the rise of larger societies which also correlates with the rise of government.  But governments first rose with direct taxation of goods (e.g., 10% of your grain and livestock go to the ruling class), not in money; so I don't think there's any causal impact there.  Money gains meaning not just because of a government - it has meaning because it is fungible and doesn't decay as rapidly as, say, a bag of grain.  I think governments took advantage of this aspect of money, and probably abuse it too, but that's more for the politics threads than the economics threads :)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: MrRoboto75 on February 01, 2020, 12:40:02 pm
Really most barter societies would be communal villages for the most part.

Some currency started as standardized weights (X amount of gold) that were controlled by strong merchants.  Govs wanted in on that as you can cut down on the actual weight of the coin either by cutting the coin itself or cutting the materials, then by legal tender laws have them still accept it as X.

Inflation via printing more money is basically stealth taxation by having money now but devaluing everyone's money in the future.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: WealthyRadish on February 01, 2020, 12:58:12 pm
I think what Reelya was referring to is the idea that currency was preceded by credit rather than an immediate exchange of commodities. What both money and barter allow for is exchange without credit, i.e. an immediate transaction between mistrustful parties. That's probably the more important distinction over the relatively minor difference between bartering with goods or currency.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on February 01, 2020, 09:14:50 pm
Bringing the idea of credit into it is probably a good point.

What I was really referring to is the enlightenment-era concept of barter societies as a "stage" that things went through that required the rise of money. It's a fiction.

Apparently, proper barter (as in X cows for Y chickens type of transactions) has only really been observed in societies that already had money, but when either party lacks liquidity (and credit is another way to refer to the same concept). It's a way of allowing trade when both parties lack money, so it boosts commerce. However, note that there's only one element of society that gets annoyed when this happens - the government.

Quote
Really most barter societies would be communal villages for the most part.

But we have plenty of examples of these, and they don't barter. They give gifts.

You barter when you don't know and trust the other party. If you try and haggle with your friends and quibble over money, see exactly how long they stay your friends. In communal villages the system is often that there's a storehouse that all the village goods go in, and a group such as the women then dole out what's needed. They don't quibble over "this pile of sticks are mine, those particular chickens are yours, therefore i'll swap X sticks for Y chicken eggs".

The reason they don't barter isn't because "barter is inefficient", it's because at that level keeping track of personal ownership is inefficient. It can be hard to see, since we live in societies pretty much obsessed with personal properly boundaries, but a lot of traditional societies don't work like that. For example, I have indigenous Australian friends and they do get annoyed sometimes that their relatives will come into their houses and just eat food / take stuff. They're not acting like that because they're naturally thieving, they're doing that because in the traditional culture, they don't have the concept of your stuff and my stuff being separate. Your family's stuff is your stuff.

Basically it's like the situation in a share house where everyone buys their own groceries and doesn't share, and gets upset if you use "their butter" or "their eggs" vs the situation where you all buy food together and cook together. In the first situation, you might "barter" if you're short of something and the other person has more, and it's an inefficient system, but the cause of the inefficiency isn't the barter, it's the fact that you're not pooling your money to buy the jumbo-size version of all the shopping items.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on February 02, 2020, 08:44:11 pm
Yea, by barter I meant more along the lines of a gift society split into small regional units rather than an actual fully individual barter system. As far as money goes... I mean it's kind of fucked, the concept of credit is all fine and dandy, but relying entirely on a currency creates a lot of room for ways to fuck with people (which we now identify as totally okay, but it really isn't).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on February 29, 2020, 04:25:49 am
Why are all the private/corporate/libertarian future-city plans so clearly flawed:

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/nov/19/inside-lavasa-indian-city-built-private-corporation

Quote
“I wouldn’t live here if I wasn’t working here,” she says. “The main reason is there are no schools out here. If I get married and have children, they cannot get settled here in Lavasa.” This highlights one of the major problems for Lavasa – how does it turn itself from a quirky weekend getaway into a fully fledged “smart city” where people live and work full time?

I could take these corporate "city of the future" mega-cities built by billionaires more seriously if they didn't somehow forget to have basic amenities like "schools". The guy's pushing it as a model city to solve the housing issues in India, but he's forgotten to make space for any sort of education system. Dumbass. I'm guessing he thinks "the market" will solve the problem once people realize their kids are turning out dumb as shit due to the lack of schools. Or, more likely, he'll tell you to have your kids commute to some other city where the taxpayer pays for education. Privatize the profits and socialize the costs.

Reminds me of the other privatized city in Indian, Gurgaon. Which doesn't have a sewage system, so you have to live in a private block with it's own sewage pumps, and they pump the poop just far enough so you can't smell it, and dump it there, instead of having a treatment plant.

I'm kinda expecting horrible things if India gets the coronavirus, like 20 million dead.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 29, 2020, 07:54:56 am
Come on Reelya, it's not like these billionaires have gotten to play Cities: Skylines, how can they be expected to know such advanced things like schools should be included in a city plan.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: scriver on February 29, 2020, 08:45:24 am
Gurgaon, is that Urban eevee evolution?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on February 29, 2020, 08:48:59 am
It's a nasty cycle where people are only focused on immediate personal returns on investment, not slow public returns on investment.  When you spend money for education (real education, not just on facilities), you get a huge return but it's diffuse and takes a generation to get it.  It's hard to "sell" - the people that have the money to invest in it are likely not going to see any benefit (because they are probably already over 40, so waiting 20 years for benefit means they'll be 60, which for most of the world is not retirement but on death's door).  The people that would see benefit - the 20-year-olds, don't yet have the money to invest.

Education is the number one way to improve the economy of a nation - without education you don't have health care, you don't have basic services, etc.  Forget about all this medicare stuff, forget about college loans, we need to do something about primary education, and not many people talk about it.

But education is expensive:  let's use US numbers as an example.  Say you want to pay a teacher a wage that encourages teachers, so say $75k a year.  After benefits and taxes payroll is $100k.  Nice round number.  Now, let's say you want to have good interaction, so you keep your student-to-teacher ratio low - 10 to 15. (instead of the 25-35 that is now common).  So that is $6 to $10k per student, per year.

A quick search says there are about 63 million people in the US between ages 5 and 19, and about 193 million between 20 and 65. This means that we need 4 to 6 million primary education teachers.  At $10^5 each, that's $4 to $6 x 10^11 in total teacher payroll (this is teachers only mind, no administration, cafeteria staff, janitors, etc.)  So $400B to $600B a year, spread among the total taxes of those 193 million working-age people.  It comes out to between $1300 and $3200 per working age person per year. Just for education.

The burden gets higher if you make it per taxpayer rather than per capita.    It also shows why education must be a public good - if it was not a public good there would be no way for anyone but the rich to have education (which is how it was for the most of history).  I don't know many people who can afford $6 to $10k per child per year to put them through school, especially if they have several children.

It's quite sad really.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on February 29, 2020, 07:51:10 pm
That's a good post right there.

Another reason it's a public good is that employers expect you to have those basic skills, at an acceptable level, even for low paid jobs. If you got an 18 year old graduate on minimum wage and he can't spell basic words or do basic math, you'd think you're paying him too much. Some business leaders don't want to pay the taxes that pay for education, however they also have the expectation of having unlimited replaceable people who have a highschool education available at minimum wage.

So, sure, don't pay taxes for education, but then also expect to be paying a lot more to hire people with very basic skills in the future. You can see how abolishing public education would lead to a very stratified society. Only a very few people would have formal education, so some skills would become much rarer and very expensive to hire for. For the rest: you'd know what you can learn from your parents, and the rest of your education would be made up by whatever you happened to see on Youtube.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on March 09, 2020, 01:22:55 pm
Watching stocks today is like morbid fascination of watching a bad vehicle accident.

It seems so detached from reality... but sadly it is somewhat causal, in that because everyone is cashing out then it is going to lead to problems that wouldn't have been there had nobody cashed out.  I'm not not saying there would not have been problems otherwise - the impact of the virus would have had some significant effect.

But this seems... emotional.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on March 09, 2020, 01:27:56 pm
Very probable as humans are the main buyers and sellers on the stock market, and they are emotional. There are also bots who buy and sell too, presumably reacting to what the humans are doing
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on July 27, 2020, 09:39:27 am
(Wow it's already been 4 months since the last post in this thread!?!)

Common in the media today: "People need jobs!"

Reality behind the statement: People need food, shelter, comforts, and a sense of purpose.

Historically we have tied the access to food, shelter, comforts, and sense of purpose to a "job", mostly because of the physical reality that in order to get food, shelter, etc. you had to "do" something.  Then we switched to "you don't necessarily need a job, you just need money."

There are lots of calls (made louder by the pandemic) that we need things like UBI to start separating access to goods and services from the act of producing goods and services.  But this is still stuck on the idea of giving people more money instead of making things cost less so you don't need income.  Is that really a bad thing though? Would we be better off trying to reduce costs universally, and somehow get over the psychological issues we have with "deflation", instead of figuring out how to give everyone money?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Zangi on July 27, 2020, 10:16:49 am
Obviously, you lower minimum wage AND introduce basic universal income.  Win for both people and businesses.
 On the red side, undocumented would need to be paid more to give equivalent of BUI + wages.

Probably need to shift a bit more taxes onto businesses and/or sales tax for revenue though.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on July 27, 2020, 01:41:18 pm
That wouldn't help with long-term contracts like mortgages or even car loans these days.  We need a way to get people out of the debt cycle.

Maybe there is an argument for maximum loan duration or something.  I mean I know the argument is "oh your monthly payments are lower for a 30 year mortgage so it makes housing more affordable!" but that's a bunch of hogwash, when the total cost of a 30 year mortgage is more than twice the cost of a 15 year mortgage (especially since interest rates are lower on the shorter-term loans!).

The trend to focus on monthly costs instead of long-term costs is a nefarious one that hides what things "really cost."

Spoiler: minor rant (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 01:53:55 pm

There are lots of calls (made louder by the pandemic) that we need things like UBI to start separating access to goods and services from the act of producing goods and services.  But this is still stuck on the idea of giving people more money instead of making things cost less so you don't need income.  Is that really a bad thing though? Would we be better off trying to reduce costs universally, and somehow get over the psychological issues we have with "deflation", instead of figuring out how to give everyone money?

But your "making things cost less" argument is still obsessing over the money aspect, just in a different way. It's just another way of "giving people more money". Money after all is just bits of paper. Having less zeros on our pieces of paper doesn't actually achieve anything. Making things costs less = giving people more money. If you give everyone 20% extra money that's functionally equivalent to cutting all prices by ~20%. But they're not functionally equivalent in how easy they are to implement, or the risk of causing complete economic collapse in doing so. What you'd need to do to cutting all prices by 20% would with 99% surety lead to to economic collapse.

You're just playing the shell game if you argue for that as some sort of solution. How, exactly do you just "make things cost less". Well, the easiest way to do this is to actually reduce wages ... if you can come up with some solution that just magically makes things costing less without paying people less to make them then you're some sort of a warlock. The alternative would be price controls or other government intervention. And you'd end up looking like Venezuela then. Empty supermarket shelves, hoarding, rationing, because good are artificially cheap because the price controls don't allow the supply and demand levels to stabilize. Say goodbye to toilet paper if you go that route. 10% of the population will be sitting on toilet paper hoards, making a killing on the black market, while the rest resort to newspaper and leaves. Sure, they'll fix this, but they'll do it via rationing, which is the only way to ensure everyone gets access to a good when you don't want to let market forces control the price. So sure, toilet paper will be "cheaper" as long as you wait in the queue for your weekly toilet paper ration.

And deflation isn't a "psychological" issue. If prices are dropping, consumption then drops because people hold onto their money in order to be richer later. This creates a deflationary spiral. The opposite, inflationary spiral, is actually harder to occur, because as prices rise, people run out of money thus taking the wind of out of the sails of inflation.

As for UBI, this has nothing to do with solving the problem by "giving people more money". What it does is stabilize the flow of money, and give people more freedom to move between employment or give their employer the finger. A stable and predictable consumer base is good for employment. The *same* UBI money would flow in good years or bad, so you would avoid those situation where everyone just falls of a cliff economically at the same time, such as in 2008 or this year.

It's Keynesian economics at heart, but rather than applying stimulus to the top of the pyramid as tradtional Keynesian economics would, by providing contracts to powerful industry leaders, it's providing a steady flow of liquidity at the bottom of the pyramid instead. Also, your "make things cost less" argument is entirely flawed because a disproportionate amount of the benefit goes to the obscenely rich. UBI is evenly distributed, but the money is taken back in taxation. It is therefore still targeted and progressive, not regressive.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on July 27, 2020, 02:25:49 pm
Prices dropping isn't always deflation though - you can have prices dropping if competition increases, if productivity increases, etc.

Also I realize I was not clear in communicating what I mean by dropping prices.  I'm not talking about just dropping zeros off the prices, I'm talking about making things relatively less expensive. That is - not how do we drop the sticker price, I mean how do we make it so you actually require less effort to obtain a good or service.

Point taken about the UBI helping to manage the flow of resources - one oddity though is that "money" is a special type of resource that, unlike every other resource on the planet, is not bound by laws of physics.  So UBI managing money flows to me sounds problematic because it can only ever indirectly manage the flow of goods and services, regardless of the tax schemes used to implement it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 02:33:48 pm
If you want to directly control the flow of resources you can. But they realized the amount of paper work need to do that would push prices up, not down.

Consider a world in which everyone is paid-in-kind based on what your company makes. Then you've removed the inefficiency of needing money as an intermediary, right? Not really, you've just pushed the expense of having to sort out the details of exchanging the good you have for the goods you need onto the individual. I mean, if I work for a rice company and i get paid in rice am I really going to get a better deal if I then need to work out how to trade hundreds of bags of rice for all the things I actually need, rather than if my employers sells the rice and gives me tokens I can use anywhere? The alternative would be argued as "get rids of capitalism then we won't even need money" but what that would really mean is that you work for the rice collective, then the rice collective trades the rice for other things, then you get given a ration of stuff from your collective based on some sort of voting system. You'd have literally zero transportable wealth and anything you did get would need to be ok'd through your collective. So you want video games - need to be approved by the collective you work for, to pay for that. After all, we've done away with personal transactions here.

We have money because not having money is fucking stupid, end of story. If we always dealt directly in commodities then that would in fact create far more paperwork and economic inefficiency than anything created by the monetary system.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on July 27, 2020, 02:46:37 pm
I think this is a side-track. I'm not saying going to barter is a good thing.

I'm musing about what aspects of UBI might help reduce individuals' and collective cost burdens, not in terms of price but in terms of effort.

I don't care if UBI is $10k or $100k, what I care about is if UBI means a person can maintain a given standard of living for 10% less work, if they can maintain a standard of living if their income is disrupted for 12 months, that sort of thing.

My hypothesis is that UBI alone can't do that, but has to be coupled with things like debt reform, removing health insurance dependence on employment, etc.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Urist McScoopbeard on July 27, 2020, 05:54:26 pm
Money as a medium of exchange does make a lot of sense imo (I dont know if that contradicts any of my previously made statements)

I do not remember exactly what I've said in the past, so I'll sum up my feelings on "economics" and the direction our society needs to go in as related to it.

1.) Efficiency is a dirty word. Historically speaking, breakthroughs in efficiency, whether mechanically, organizationally, or otherwise tends to be initially viewed as a sort of labour-saving device--which is obviously beneficial to a number of interested parties. However, the narrative usually goes something like "this will enable us to continue production at our current output and increase the quality of life of our workers" or something similar depending on who's telling it, whether this is straight up unethical marketing or an actual grounded mentality is unclear to me, but what almost always ends up happening is that instead of decreasing pressure on workers, it increases the amount of work they have to do--usually due to some combination of new space to compete is lowering prices, feeling that man-hours can be reduced due to breakthroughs, or simply demand as a market expands rapidly. Frankly, I think the industrialization of massive portions of our planet and population is overwhelmingly negative--that is not to say that life today is particularly bad, but that the stress heaped on the individual is enormously greater than any time before the early modern period.

Not to be obscurantist, but if you're going to go to great lengths to educate a population, put them in debt, then force the majority of those people to work their way out of it through some of the psychologically worst jobs possible how is that not just torture? Especially when you it's completely obvious that from a social point of view, everyone could be working 50% less and still have all the things they need to enjoy a good life? And that the prolongation of your torture is simply due to the fact that a few incredibly wealthy groups of individuals want to measure their dicks by showing eachother who has the most money?

2.) Economic theory, public knowledge thereof, and simply our understanding of why things are the way they are are all fucked up. To be frank, it really shouldn't matter how the economy is doing for people to enjoy a decent life, not even a GOOD life, just a life free of hunger, physical danger, and exposure to the elements. American society, though not necessarily designed this way, can be pretty easily interpretted as brutal wage slavery. It is essentially a crime that anyone at an given time cannot simply say, I have decided to quit, built a hut, and live off the land without major repercussions. One may have expected that a global economy and connected society would foster the rise in living conditions around the world, however it has simply enabled the same old power hungry people to oppress the same out power starved people in novel and subtle ways. What I'm try to get at is "economics" really doesn't do much to improve the world for the average person, as an academic, philosophical, and scientific development it is the social equivalent of histories written by old, rich Roman senators--studied as objectly profound, reasonably accurate in its predictions, but not necessarily truthful or useful at all (especially in all the limited ways in which it is presented or exposed to the public at large). As a society we should be stopping people from accumulating power, whether it comes in the form of physical wealth or otherwise, not attempting to ensure the "health" of private corporations or sources of revenue for the state.

3.) Even without the accompanying accumulation of power, the accumulation of wealth (on an individual level) beyond what you could reasonably expect to need in a lifetime is deeply unethical for a number of reasons. Not that taking the wealth from the very wealthy would solve ANY problems, it is simply the deeply held belief in some people that one could possibly DESERVE many hundreds of times greater wealth, standard of living, and leisure than another. And usually the people who end up on the favorable side of that disparity, seem to think that somehow they have actually worked many of hundreds of times harder to get there and that anyone could do as they have done. In short, as I most definitely have said before, being extremely rich is literally a violation of the social contract. We agree to band together as humans because teamwork usually benefits all of us, and we also recognize that no one is so weak that they are inferior to another AND that no one is so strong that they are superior to another. But I mean? How is climbing your way to an easy life on the backs of others ethical or right??? It is one thing to assume a hierarchy of granted and given powers to ensure a certain degree of compliance, safety, and expediency--but it another to take all the gains, fuck off, and tell your fellow man that he simply doesn't deserve what you have and use your newfound resources to stop people from evening the odds.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Reelya on July 27, 2020, 07:10:49 pm
My hypothesis is that UBI alone can't do that, but has to be coupled with things like debt reform, removing health insurance dependence on employment, etc.

I didn't mention the health thing, but did think about it, because it's a no-brainer. Virtually everywhere else, it's already the norm that you have universal health care that has nothing to do with employment. So it's not something that really needs abstract debate. It's a solved problem, hence not that interesting from an economic theory point of view. There's nothing to be debated about that. So it's really nothing to do with the UBI debate whatsoever, and is entirely orthogonal.

One topic I'll move to is that with paper wealth there is this tendency to assume that equals resources, when in fact it doesn't. Say I hack my bank account and i put $100 trillion dollars in there, then everyone says I'm a monster because if I spent that money i could buy 100 trillion loaves of bread a feed the world. It really doesn't work like that. Much on-paper wealth is just paper and doesn't equate to being able to just magically create resources out of thin air. Attempting to spend large amounts of money to secure a finite resource just pushes the price up. So the argument that because one person has too many bits of paper, if we re-allocated their bits of paper everyone could have more actual resources is kind of questionable logic.

However, that's where the false equivalence comes in. UBI isn't saying just to reallocate bits of paper, it's saying to decouple basic income from the need to have a job, which is a different thing altogether. But it still supports having additional income if you do work for X hours. One important thing is that it removes welfare cliffs. For example, situations can exist where if you're completely unemployed you get the full welfare payment, but if you earn $1 they cut you off, so your marginal income is negative for having made any effort at all, and you have to work quite a few hours before you're seeing net positive income at all, let alone decent net positive income per hour. Since UBI doesn't have means testing then those situations don't happen. The money for UBI can be provided by replacing broken welfare payment systems, and by also removing existing tax credits. So it's not about getting "more money" it's about removing perverse incentives and simplifying the system while reducing bureaucratic interference in the lives of low-income people.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on December 12, 2020, 09:25:18 pm
Yes, I'm sure I want to keep using this same topic. Has it really been more than 4 months!?

Heading back towards the topic a recent Australian survey shows that the covid epidemic has increased support for the idea of a Universial Basic Income (to 58% up from about 50-51%, if memory serves).

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-11/survey-says-most-australians-welcome-universal-basic-income/12970924)

In a bit of an overstatement the article opens with:
Quote
Nearly two-thirds of Australians say they would support the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI), according to a new poll.

Personally I think the political class has missed a huge opportunity to more to a UBI during the coronavirus epidemic, since the economy is already disrupted the opportunity cost of the transition is much much lower.

It should be noted that those groups that are most strongly opposed to UBI include (or are basically) the politicians, journalists and business people which is why despite decent popular support it is consistently trashed as an idea.

Why is it notable that people who oppose UBI are the ones that have to pay for it (politicians and business people)? I guess maybe it's notable that "journalists" are opposed, unless this meant "the media companies."

The more I think about UBI, the more I think it won't do anything unless we have a simultaneous change to other structural elements of the economy that weaken rent-seeking and other wealth-concentrating activities.  I also think that if you had those protections in place, we wouldn't need UBI in the first place.

So my "vote" would be to work to fix those systems, not try and cover over it by shuffling around dollars.  The main new thought that triggered this is the other thread talking about two-earner households, and why households still struggle with all the adults working.  That right there is a big piece of the evidence that supports the idea that you can't just give (at least the middle class) more money and have it not get eaten up by "inflation."

The only way to increase buying power is to have supply of goods and services increase faster than demand.  (Similarly, the only way to have a "basic income" is to guarantee that the supply of goods and services remains at least constant with respect to population growth.) 

This hints at a solution: instead of just throwing money around, we need incentives for people to invest in new production, not in rent-seeking.  Essentially something that charges capital holders who are not using their capital to increase productivity or at least buffer against shocks. What you don't want is a system that penalizes capital holders from being productive.

So put teeth back in the trust-busting legislation and enforcement, reduce copyright and other intellectual property duration, tax gains from "buying low and selling high" heavily. Levy fines or something if you increase rent but refuse to build new properties. Stuff like that.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: feelotraveller on December 12, 2020, 11:48:41 pm
Quote
Why is it notable that people who oppose UBI are the ones that have to pay for it (politicians and business people)? I guess maybe it's notable that "journalists" are opposed, unless this meant "the media companies."

It is notable because the impression that UBI is unpopular comes from the voices that dominate public discourse rather than what the majority of the public want/thinks.  The notion that somehow politicians are going to take a pay-cut so that UBI happens is laughable (not suggesting that this is quite what you meant... but what did you mean?) and it does not make sense to me that business people would lose either.  Their lives will improve (statistically at least) along with everyone else.  Business itself would transition, not sure how to quantify it in business terms but in social terms it would be a very much better thing.

The problem is conceiving of the economy as driven by production.  It's not.  Rather consumption drives modern economies.  This is why advertising is such a fact of life - it produces nothing but a desire to consume.  UBI entails a massive increase in spending power since it raises a whole cohort above the poverty line, and also allows many others to divest from costly endeavours that effectively keep them in poverty (the working poor).  It also entails a shift in 'what' is consumed, closer to what aligns to peoples real desires, since if basic needs are covered people get to choose what it is they want to focus on.  Giving money to the poor drives consumption because they spend it and it flows around: conversely giving money to the rich stifles the economy since they do not spend it.

It also entails very real, and quite massive, savings in the administrative overhead given to running unemployment benefits, income support and other community welfare schemes.  All of which achieve nothing except a manipulative intrusion into peoples lives.  (If it costs anything it's the inputs into the war machine of the authoritarian state, and I for one am happy to pay that cost since I only plan to get nuked once anyway.  :P)

Rent-seeking only works where a group have the exclusive control of the capital to seek rent on in the first place.  That capital is accumulated by forcing people to work for the rent-seekers.  Sure UBI alone will not solve that problem but it does emmancipate a large section of the population from working on the chain gang and continually making things worse.  It opens the door for a viable sea-change in behaviour such that 'more' is not always better - in the above survey about 30% of people said that they would pursue creative endeavours, take up exercise, spend more time with family or volunteer in the community if a UBI was introduced.  They all sound like healthy activities, both for individuals and for social whole, to me.  ;)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 13, 2020, 07:24:16 am
This begs the question then; why are our current crop of political leaders so averse to UBI and so dogmatic in their love for free market darwinism?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on December 13, 2020, 03:40:35 pm
Sorry I thought it was obvious my question about "why is it notable..." was rhetorical.

I just don't believe that UBI can bring people above the poverty line; I posit UBI will shift the poverty line instead, consuming as much of UBI as it can.  Until you put in place enforced laws that prevent capital holders from just rent-seeking all the UBI, it's going to be second verse same as the first.  Also the claims of "but UBI is cheaper to administer than welfare" are spurious - the general public is not going to benefit from those savings; the tax funds are just going to be sent somewhere else.

Yes I'm that cynical :)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: thompson on December 14, 2020, 01:58:26 am
Personally, I’d be in favour of a tax surcharge on capital gains. So, if you’re tax rate is 25%, you pay 25+5% on capital gains. Could be extended to all passive income. It would be easier to implement than a wealth tax as you already give all this information to the tax office and don’t need to worry about estimating value of privately held assets, they just need to change the equation slightly.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on December 14, 2020, 01:07:18 pm
I think "in principle" I agree with "add extra tax for passive income" but defining that is really difficult in a way that punishes abusers but still lets "the little guy" do things that would benefit them.

For example, I would tax any gains from "buy low and sell high" - especially in cases like where people buy up a supply of an in-demand item simply to sell it above "retail" price.  I think I might perhaps define this as "if you sell something for more than you paid for it, in excess of inflation" then that is subject to the tax.  So if you buy a house and 10 years later sell it for 30% more, you don't get taxed on the gain, but if you sell it 5 years later for twice what you paid, you get taxed a ton (this is vastly different than today's common housing laws which give you something crazy like $500k in appreciation tax-free, regardless of time period).

I would not want to add the surcharge to "traditional" dividends though - if you are getting a portion of profits from a productive enterprise, you don't want to tax that because it is taxing productivity.  You've got to be careful though, because you don't want people to hide gains from "buy low sell high" as a type of profit that is distributed as dividends.

There are many other "tricky" situations though - which is why the tax code is so complex...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: thompson on December 14, 2020, 02:57:11 pm
I know what you mean, but I think it’s impossible to separate productive from non-productive gains. I’m hoping we can at least agree wages are going to be more productive than passive income. Reform to capital gains tax is definitely a winner in my books too. I guess I’d also like to see income taxes lowered for all but the highest tax brackets with the lions share of taxation going on passive gains. The system needs more reform than that, but I feel it’s workable and mostly agreeable.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: feelotraveller on December 15, 2020, 05:50:22 pm
This begs the question then; why are our current crop of political leaders so averse to UBI and so dogmatic in their love for free market darwinism?
I am demonstrably bad at detecting rhetorical questions - this is one one, isn't it?  Anyways just in case - a large proportion of the funding for political (re)election campaigns comes directly form corporate coffers.  Politicians also come almost exclusively from a privileged strata which benefits from the exploitation of cheap labour. There are also deeper reasons involving marriage to the 'growth at all costs' paradigm: the pyramid must grow! - but I'm not gonna write a treatise here.

I just don't believe that UBI can bring people above the poverty line; I posit UBI will shift the poverty line instead, consuming as much of UBI as it can.  Until you put in place enforced laws that prevent capital holders from just rent-seeking all the UBI, it's going to be second verse same as the first.  Also the claims of "but UBI is cheaper to administer than welfare" are spurious - the general public is not going to benefit from those savings; the tax funds are just going to be sent somewhere else.

Hence there is no point in any tax reform/income redistribution at all since on one hand the rent-seekers will just gobble up any increase in personal income* and on the other from the overall tax pie the 'correct' amount will always be 'sent elsewhere' (at least until the point where there is bugger all tax pie left).  That's using a ballistic missile to squash a fly if I've ever seen it.  :o  (=Says nothing about UBI at all...)

As for the 'rent-seeking' stuff how the hell are traditional dividends not a classic example of it? 

More deeply I don't know how one can distiguish profit-seeking from rent-seeking in any rigorous way in the real world - the wage relation itself is a form of rent-seeking since the printers are deprived of part of their labouring efforts by the owner of the printing press; the waitress by the cafe owner; and the cafe owner by the mega-corp franchise.

Beyond any economic (read narrowly as monetary) relation one thing a UBI does is to free up the time investment otherwise demanded by wage labour.


* I blame Karen.  She is always the one saying, "We bought a hummer this year, what did you buy?" in pointed tones.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 19, 2021, 08:22:21 am
Resurrecting this thread due to recent pontification.

I had a random thought this weekend while mowing my lawn: should economic activity that doesn't involve direct trade be counted toward GDP and standard of living metrics?

If I pay someone to mow my lawn, that technically gets counted as GDP.  But if I just do it myself - how does that factor in?  I'm doing "valuable work" but there's no trade.

Does this mean that GDP of many nations is undercounted - specifically those nations where most people just do their own subsistence work, without trading?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: martinuzz on July 19, 2021, 08:25:56 am
How about people who cook their own food every day instead of ordering pizza or going to a restaurant?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 19, 2021, 08:47:16 am
Exactly.  Stay-at-home childcare / elder care is also a huge one.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: voliol on July 19, 2021, 09:17:41 am
The question is how to correctly measure that, how much worth is the labor of cutting one’s grass, or making a meal, if no one is getting payed for it, thereby cementing a kind of measurable value, the ”market value”? Actually, what’s to say market value is a good way of calculating GDP? A school cafeteria and people cooking lunch boxes both provide the service of getting people lunch, but if you count the market value the private lunch boxes are much more expensive because the cafeteria can buy ingredients in bulk. So lunch boxes have a higher market value despite providing the same service. If taken at face value, that would mean inefficency ups the GDP.

...Or is market value used for calculating GDP? I was taught the kind of lazy ”it’s the sum of the economy” in high school, and never thought about it much further than that. It seems like an nearly impossible task to calculate.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: NAV on July 19, 2021, 10:48:40 am
Hours of work × minimum wage could set a reasonable baseline estimate for the stay-at-home GDP. Most of the jobs that are being DIYed are low paying jobs at or near minimum wage.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on July 19, 2021, 11:40:26 am
There's a feminist who suggests that a monetary value be placed on housework + childcare so that more women could participate in a regulated labor market and enjoy workplace protections/make use of existing labor law :)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: martinuzz on July 19, 2021, 11:51:19 am
I foresee troubles with workplace safety inspectors. "No children on the workfloor!"
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 19, 2021, 12:00:48 pm
There's a feminist who suggests that a monetary value be placed on housework + childcare so that more women could participate in a regulated labor market and enjoy workplace protections/make use of existing labor law :)

???
I can't even imagine the unintended consequences from that sort of thing.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on July 19, 2021, 12:19:42 pm
Indeed, as my dad always said: "A man's work is from sun to sun; a woman's work is never done."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: scriver on July 19, 2021, 12:55:22 pm
How about people who cook their own food every day instead of ordering pizza or going to a restaurant?

They are paid in a longer, healthier life


I foresee troubles with workplace safety inspectors. "No children on the workfloor!"

Children used as unpaid labour!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on July 20, 2021, 12:24:17 am
Can you have a conversation of "what should be included in the GDP" without putting it within the context of "what should be taxed and who should be the recipients of that tax"?

GDP is an estimate of value for the purpose of negotiating transactions and taxation on those transactions.

Taxation is a substitute for banditry.

I would argue that mowing your lawn should not be included in GDP because the product of that activity cannot be stolen (even though it could be destroyed). The lawnmower should be taxed, because that lawnmower could be stolen. The payments for a lawn-mowing business should be taxed, because it could be stolen.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

So how do you measure the value of that which cannot be stolen but can be destroyed? Is there an economic index for that? Because that seems to be what is needed.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: feelotraveller on July 20, 2021, 01:00:47 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 20, 2021, 01:04:11 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
please explain how a…urinal?…sink?…oddly shaped storage unit?…whatever that is relates to this. I have no idea what you’re trying to convey. I’m sorry
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 20, 2021, 01:13:11 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
please explain how a…urinal?…sink?…oddly shaped storage unit?…whatever that is relates to this. I have no idea what you’re trying to convey. I’m sorry

Its a famous 'sculpture'/found art piece, essentially the artist took a urinal, laid it on its side, and put his name on the side of it.

Point being, the artist didn't make the urinal/work-of-art, only put it in a museum gallery.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: feelotraveller on July 20, 2021, 01:15:48 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
please explain how a…urinal?…sink?…oddly shaped storage unit?…whatever that is relates to this. I have no idea what you’re trying to convey. I’m sorry

I refuse to explain myself.  But for background you are presumably missing see: https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-duchamps-urinal-changed-art-forever (https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-duchamps-urinal-changed-art-forever)  Beyond that thinking is required. 
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

(ah, ninja'd, but have this anyways...)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 20, 2021, 02:33:43 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
please explain how a…urinal?…sink?…oddly shaped storage unit?…whatever that is relates to this. I have no idea what you’re trying to convey. I’m sorry

I refuse to explain myself.  But for background you are presumably missing see: https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-duchamps-urinal-changed-art-forever (https://www.artsy.net/article/artsy-editorial-duchamps-urinal-changed-art-forever)  Beyond that thinking is required. 
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

(ah, ninja'd, but have this anyways...)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
please explain how a…urinal?…sink?…oddly shaped storage unit?…whatever that is relates to this. I have no idea what you’re trying to convey. I’m sorry

Its a famous 'sculpture'/found art piece, essentially the artist took a urinal, laid it on its side, and put his name on the side of it.

Point being, the artist didn't make the urinal/work-of-art, only put it in a museum gallery.
thank you both
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 20, 2021, 06:21:28 am
I am, politically, a Neo-Menshevik (faction during the Russian Revolution that opposed the authoritarian Bolsheviks and was more democratic and somewhat more moderate). Economically I support what amounts to China-style state capitalism, except minus the oligarchs: the government controls a large part of the economy (including important industries such as energy and medicine) while leaving the minor industries to the market-- with intervention in case of consumer and/or employee rights abuses. I will be honest, I don't give a damn about capitalism if it's heavily regulated like that. I just don't feel the need to waste the government's time and money on controlling the production of jeans.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 20, 2021, 06:54:12 am
Uh... GDP isn't related to taxation, other than taxes are I think included in the government spending component.

GDP = Gross Domestic Product, it's a measure that is intended to represent the economic activity of a large entity like a country.  I can't remember the formula off the top of my head, but I'm sure the internet can help you there:  The one I remember I think is consumption plus government spending plus investment plus net exports.

Yeah ok so I looked, Wiki says it's "a measure of the market value of all goods and services produced within a time period."  So I guess it should theoretically include mowing your own lawn, since that is a service...?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 20, 2021, 11:18:07 am
Your formula sounds right, I think…it’s been a few years since I took a Macro-economics class. Is there something that subtracts imports too? Wait that’s what net exports are whoops
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on July 20, 2021, 01:11:24 pm
So how do you measure the value of that which cannot be stolen but can be destroyed?

I greatly enjoyed your post on inalienable property.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread
Post by: McTraveller on July 20, 2021, 03:51:29 pm
As for the 'rent-seeking' stuff how the hell are traditional dividends not a classic example of it? 

More deeply I don't know how one can distiguish profit-seeking from rent-seeking in any rigorous way in the real world - the wage relation itself is a form of rent-seeking since the printers are deprived of part of their labouring efforts by the owner of the printing press; the waitress by the cafe owner; and the cafe owner by the mega-corp franchise.

Beyond any economic (read narrowly as monetary) relation one thing a UBI does is to free up the time investment otherwise demanded by wage labour.

Dividends and "traditional" profit are gains you get from productive work. Rent seeking is getting paid for no productivity.  Traditional dividends are not directly rent-seeking, because they are (traditionally) paid for  out of the profits of a productive enterprise.  Theoretically if the company in which you own shares doesn't make a profit, you don't get dividends.

If you make a ton of money building widgets and selling that at a mark-up, that's profit-making.  If you already sold someone a widget and make customers pay you to keep using it, that's rent-seeking. Calling software development a "subscription" because you force updates on people every month: rent-seeking.

If you profit by buying low and selling high, that's neither profiting from productivity or rent-seeking, that's playing the market, and should also be discouraged (see: massive windfall profits of natural gas companies in Texas; also see "lucky" people who bought Bitcoin at $1 or some now-massive stock at low price. Basically I'd tax dividends at normal income rate, and tax gains due to sale of stock at some much higher price).

If I were to seriously look at creating a policy, I'd look at encouraging profits from productivity and discouraging rent-seeking and buy-low-sell-high profit.  I'm still pondering how to address real-estate abuse; probably some combination of taxing non-residence property based on total amount of non-residence property owned and mandating that rental payment by the residents confers ownership share.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: WealthyRadish on July 20, 2021, 05:03:24 pm
As for the 'rent-seeking' stuff how the hell are traditional dividends not a classic example of it? 

More deeply I don't know how one can distiguish profit-seeking from rent-seeking in any rigorous way in the real world - the wage relation itself is a form of rent-seeking since the printers are deprived of part of their labouring efforts by the owner of the printing press; the waitress by the cafe owner; and the cafe owner by the mega-corp franchise.

Beyond any economic (read narrowly as monetary) relation one thing a UBI does is to free up the time investment otherwise demanded by wage labour.

Dividends and "traditional" profit are gains you get from productive work. Rent seeking is getting paid for no productivity.  Traditional dividends are not directly rent-seeking, because they are (traditionally) paid for  out of the profits of a productive enterprise.  Theoretically if the company in which you own shares doesn't make a profit, you don't get dividends.

If you make a ton of money building widgets and selling that at a mark-up, that's profit-making.  If you already sold someone a widget and make customers pay you to keep using it, that's rent-seeking. Calling software development a "subscription" because you force updates on people every month: rent-seeking.

If you profit by buying low and selling high, that's neither profiting from productivity or rent-seeking, that's playing the market, and should also be discouraged (see: massive windfall profits of natural gas companies in Texas; also see "lucky" people who bought Bitcoin at $1 or some now-massive stock at low price. Basically I'd tax dividends at normal income rate, and tax gains due to sale of stock at some much higher price).

If I were to seriously look at creating a policy, I'd look at encouraging profits from productivity and discouraging rent-seeking and buy-low-sell-high profit.  I'm still pondering how to address real-estate abuse; probably some combination of taxing non-residence property based on total amount of non-residence property owned and mandating that rental payment by the residents confers ownership share.

The expectation is that true economic profit (not merely "accounting profit") should trend to zero if the markets actually work, due to competition forcing actors to undercut each other in pursuit of finite market share. Even in that imaginary zero-profit state there will still be "accounting profit" on the books, but it would fall to the minimum level of adequate compensation to justify what labor there is in managing the process (this is assuming a legal framework that rewards and requires this sort of top-down management to be done), effectively serving only as the "wages" of directing investment.

If true profits do not fall to zero (they don't), it's evidence that "economic rent" is being extracted through the influence of legal power, open coercion, or some other source of market failure. Economic rent is most obvious in land or resource rents; inheriting a small area of land in Manhattan might draw millions of dollars a month to its owner (who contributes literally nothing to justify this beyond their permission for others to make use of economic opportunities), and similarly control of an oilfield can draw profit in the thousands of percent on extraction (but requires a global regime of colluding producers to keep prices high).

But economic rent and rent-seeking obviously isn't confined to land-rent, and all its various forms can be easily re-expressed naively as "profit" or "dividends" that are in reality very difficult to separate from that notion of "productively earned profits" (it's hard to make that distinction without access to information that doesn't exist). The rent could be extracted through collusion or monopolism removing the influence of competition and allowing sustained price-fixing, through newer legal instruments such as intellectual property in patents, copyright, and trademarks, or through political control of tax revenue, for instance. Chattel slavery and debt slavery are, likewise, processes that can be likened to rent-seeking. Speculation in commodities and securities is a process that is similarly motivated by that same drive of rent-seeking, relying upon fraud, market manipulation, or insider information to make any "true profit" (beyond the mere accounting profit of the possibly-useful facilitation of transactions which rapidly trends to zero or devolves to gambling).

So basically, I agree with feelo that profit-seeking and rent-seeking are almost identical. The motive force behind the oft-celebrated process of market "innovation" is the temporary monopoly the first entrant into a market gains, giving them a period of high rents and a leg-up in suppressing competition going forward (or, more typically, the attractive prospect of selling out to a more successful monopolizer at a massive return on their original capital, that monopolizer themselves typically bankrolled by rents from another source).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 20, 2021, 06:06:37 pm
I disagree that profit-seeking and rent-seeking are identical. I might agree that rent seeking is a subset of profit seeking: they may have the same end result - more money in someone's pocket - but they have massively different practical effects: rent-seeking is gaining more personal wealth without creating overall wealth, while profit-seeking is more general and can include actual production of wealth.

Note here that 'wealth' is a classical definition, meaning the production of more goods and services - not the colloquial definition of 'more money in the bank account'.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: wierd on July 20, 2021, 08:31:26 pm
The two are tightly coupled though.

That coupling is why merchant capitalism drives product advancement, but is ALSO why end-stage merchant capitalism results in oligopoly, or monopoly. Eventually, the most efficient route to satisfy the desire for more capital acquisition becomes barrier to entry to competitors and other forms of rent-seeking, by exploiting supply side.

This is inevitable, if restrictions against consolidation of the market are not enforced. The consolidations of the market are naturally, HIGHLY LUCRATIVE, and thus HIGHLY DESIRED by those seeking them, and those who stand to have an investment return in the entities that can then exploit the consolidated positioning-- This is why such restrictions against consolidation are not enforced; the powerful and political classes have their hands in the cookie jar.

"Who watches the watchers?"

 
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 20, 2021, 08:33:44 pm
We need the watchers to be watched, but then we need watchers of the watcher watchers
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: wierd on July 20, 2021, 08:36:54 pm
You only need 3 sets of watchers.

Watchdog group A, watches Group B.

Group B, watches group C.

Group C watches group A.

With sufficient (dis)incentives in action, the 3 sets of watchers can theoretically evade capture by the oligarchs, but in practice, that does not really occur. They are pernicious, as the powerful and the political classes are empowered, both financially and politically, through that same coupling and resulting lock-out.  That is to say, they are HIGHLY MOTIVATED to circumvent the restrictions, and to capture the regulators.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on July 21, 2021, 12:43:29 am
@McTraveller
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
With much humor intended, I would ask you, "Is there any system of wealth measurement that doesn't attract the attention of those in the business of taking or taxing?"

The reason I said, "GDP is an estimate of value for the purpose of negotiating transactions and taxation on those transactions" is, it doesn't matter what the original incarnations of the GDP system were created for because the GDP measurement is now used by governments when negotiating transactions with other governments (trade agreements, aid offerings, access to resources, military assistance, etc), it is used by politicians for promoting themselves, and it is used by persons advocating lower tax rates on the poor, it is used by those lobbying for domestic industries, and all of these political influences are certainly involved in attempts to adjust the GDP numbers to benefit their causes. If you are lobbying for the USA steel industries, you will hold up the inflated-as-possible value (the % of GDP that the steel industry could create) and say, "we need to tax steel imports to protect this % of the USA GDP.

People talk about adding unpaid labor to the GDP, but because unpaid labor rarely results in something that can be stolen or taxed, it will never really happen. "It is very nice that you take care of your kids, but we can't determine how to tax that...". The things that can be taken or taxed will always be measured separately by those that are in the business of taking or taxing.

Any discussion about the value of your own unpaid labor needs to be put in the context of "tax as a substitute for banditry" or it will fail when the goons with guns are introduced.

----------------
So how do you measure the value of that which cannot be stolen but can be destroyed?

I greatly enjoyed your post on inalienable property.
Well, I did too, but maybe for different reasons :p  If I take the time to build a sand castle at low tide, why should anyone have a right come up to me and threaten to remove my enjoyment of watching the ocean take it away from me? The horrifying thing is that, that sandcastle example is an analogy that can be applied to people who watch their children suffer ruin by the influence and actions of others rather than watch their children become free adults. In some ways, figurative "inalienable property" is exactly at the core of "the right to take emo-pets on planes" and other "emo-rights" like the right "to have a public statue of some historic dude who was also a slave-owner or to remove that statue". Because the figurative or literal applications of words can blur, maybe I don't fully understand which "inalienable property" you meant, but if you are suggesting that I meant "inalienable property" referred to in Gambone's reply to this question (https://www.quora.com/Why-isn-t-property-one-of-the-inalienable-rights-listed-in-the-US-Declaration-of-Independence), that is not what I meant. I only meant that the effort of mowing a lawn resulted in nothing that could be taken or taxed, only destroyed. Mowing a lawn is as much an artistic expression as a functionally useful act. If it has been a high grass lawn and that grass was cut and gathered for livestock, then that grass is something that could be taken or taxed... that is where I was going with that. Taxmen, whether holding weapons or briefcases, want something tangible to take, and while GDP does include "services" that are not tangible, the payment for those services is tangible, which is why "paid baby-sitting" is part of GDP and "unpaid baby-sitting" is not.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: voliol on July 21, 2021, 02:47:48 am
Hmm, even if GDP is miraculously adjusted (or changed in how it’s calculated) so that ”self-services” like cutting your lawn is included, it would still not be the best measure. After all, what does it matter how many lawns are cut, how many tvs are sold, how many mansions are built, how many [insert any non-essential, practical or non-practical, service here], if people can’t be guaranteed food, housing, and healthcare? I guess it can be used as a baseline for ”this is how much we should be able to produce, to help ourselves directly or otherwise sell our products to buy what we need”.

In other words, I dislike phrases like ”x is the richest country in this area” or ”the economic growth of last year was y%”, when these don’t correspond to living standard or poverty rates.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on July 21, 2021, 06:27:22 am

Oh, sorry. No, I mean the literal meaning of inalienable, rather than the figurative one: property that cannot be transferred.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 21, 2021, 08:43:18 am
In other words, I dislike phrases like ”x is the richest country in this area” or ”the economic growth of last year was y%”, when these don’t correspond to living standard or poverty rates.

This is part of what kicked off the recent discussion - an observation that GDP is extraordinarily disconnected from the average person.  It's tied in with all the other observations above - especially the politics part and how as soon as you have a social contract that has the concept of ownership disconnected from physical possession you end up with wealth concentration and all the -opoly and power-mongering abuses, as well as other bizarre effects (like when prices for commodities go negative).

No, I mean the literal meaning of inalienable, rather than the figurative one: property that cannot be transferred.

I'm curious about this - I've never heard of "inalienable" being used to apply to property. "Inalienable" does mean "cannot be taken away," but there is no type of property (of which I'm aware) which cannot be taken away, so I don't know how to think about that.  Or do you mean in the same sense of "inalienable rights" for which basically it comes down to whatever the people with the biggest sticks say goes? That is, yeah those rights (property) can in fact be taken away, but we have written down that taking them away is a Bad Idea.

(I mean after all, if they truly were "naturally" inalienable, you wouldn't need a document saying they were... because it wouldn't be possible to take them away in the first place.)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: wierd on July 21, 2021, 08:52:24 am
OK.

Here's an example.


I go to a college, and I am educated there.  The education is clearly something I have paid money for, and received possession of-- I will continue to reap benefits of having obtained that education.

Now, suppose I am unable to pay my student loans.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for the university to extract the education I received from me.  At the best, they can rescind my diploma, but that does not disempower my mind, nor remove the knowledge contained inside.

The knowledge is a good, that cannot be taken away. It is inalienable.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 21, 2021, 09:46:07 am
Thanks for that example, knowledge is inalienable for practical purposes in that sense.  I'm not sure I'd classify it as "property" or a "good" though.  (Yes yes, I know there is a thing called "intellectual property" but that's an oft-debated controversial social construct.)

Spoiler: rambling pontification (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on July 21, 2021, 11:31:57 am
I'm curious about this - I've never heard of "inalienable" being used to apply to property. "Inalienable" does mean "cannot be taken away," but there is no type of property (of which I'm aware) which cannot be taken away, so I don't know how to think about that.

Often it refers to property that is literally movable (or whatever) but which can't be fully taken due to the relationship. For example, an Academy Award (the physical statue) can be stolen or whatever, but you can't make yourself the recipient of that award. Kidnapping someone's wife does not make her now, "your wife."

Or a dog you keep trying to sell but which comes back to you faithfully.


I understand that this kind of discussion is somewhat contrary to modern economics, but it is very common in the anthropological world, which is where I'm gathering it from.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 21, 2021, 11:46:08 am
Sure, but things like awards (or winning a game) are not "economic goods."  Same thing with labels like "wife" or "birthplace" or whatever - they are "things" but they aren't "economic" - even if there is economic activity associated with being granted an award or filing paperwork to keep marriage or birth records or whatever.

Aside: I love how these conversations evolve over time.  Always learning new stuff and being exposed to new viewpoints - it's awesome and it's why I appreciate this community!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: WealthyRadish on July 21, 2021, 11:52:34 am
The main "economic good" of history, land, has traditionally been inalienable in most societies to varying extents. Being legally able to buy and sell it is a practice that had to develop and re-develop in many times and places, a product of increased commercialization of those societies in general.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection MMXXII
Post by: McTraveller on June 13, 2022, 11:27:55 am
Wow it's been almost a year since this thread has been used?

Anyway, my question is this - why does a 3% 10-year treasury interest rate and the specter of a higher Federal Funds Rate target cause the stock markets to drop by more than 20%?  That is - what's the theory behind this huge multiple?

Or is this just a goofy artifact of PE ratios being so high that a small change in expected earnings causes a large effect on stock price?

I don't really have an immediate interest as I don't trade frequently in the markets, but was just wondering.  It's a fascinating phenomenon to observe.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 13, 2022, 03:02:54 pm
The stock market drops whenever something happens unexpected.

President says some shit, stock prices drop.
President says other shit, stock prices increase.

It's the basic principle under which I'm 100% sure Trump engaged in massive stock manipulation for profit when he was President.
But I doubt he'll get caught for that.  And I doubt he was the first to do it.

Uncertainly hurts the market the most.  That specter is why you have the 20% drop.  Once the Federal Reserve sets its policy, some of it will come back regardless of how bad their policy should be.

Also: I think you're right about the PE rations being part of the problem.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on June 13, 2022, 03:11:51 pm
that's unfair, sometimes Musk says shit.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 15, 2022, 01:54:18 pm
Woo, 3/4 basis point target increase!  I may make more than 1% on my savings account now!

Inflation discussion... begin!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 15, 2022, 08:26:13 pm
Woo, 3/4 basis point target increase!  I may make more than 1% on my savings account now!

Inflation discussion... begin!
8.6% inflation.
Discussion over.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Ziusudra on June 15, 2022, 11:30:52 pm
This "inflation" is a lie to hide corporate price gouging and profit taking.
(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*riklDgWgYumg14RKdWRbTw.png)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 01:28:12 am
Am I the only one who enjoys watching how Bitcoin goes down? Is it the beginning of the end of the Ponzi scheme of a century? Or shell we see another "to the moon" later?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on June 17, 2022, 05:33:17 am
This "inflation" is a lie to hide corporate price gouging and profit taking.
(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*riklDgWgYumg14RKdWRbTw.png)
Haha, this is the dumbest infographic I've seen in a while. The CPI doesn't even GO from 0 to 7 - it seems to be using the inflation rate, which is a first derivative (ie, not the right thing to compare here) and falsely calling it the CPI. Then, of course, intentionally scaling it to match the other graph to fool the innumerate.

But that's not the truly dumb part. The real, underlying idiocy is this: corporate profits in nominal dollars will always be proportional to inflation to some degree, because they are in nominal dollars. Even if the real amount of money stays exactly the same, the nominal amount will change proportional to inflation! That's what inflation is!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 17, 2022, 08:14:16 am
This "inflation" is a lie to hide corporate price gouging and profit taking.
(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/1*riklDgWgYumg14RKdWRbTw.png)
Technically, inflation is not Corporate price gouging and profit taking, but rather Government overspending, overtaxing, and defrauding their creditors.
Corporations are more-or-less* read into the Government scheme so they can profit accordingly.

So you put the ox before the cart, so to speak.

To explain fully, you claim the Government created inflation to benefit the Corporations. This is not accurate.
Government created inflation to help itself, and just let some* of the Corporations benefit from it.

*Notice the words "more-or-less" and "some".  Not every Corporation has benefited from the last few years. Some types of businesses are hurt more than others by inflation, and some were NOT invited to the dinner parties where Government Politicians and Corporate Officers mingle and plot how to fuck the common man for profit.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 17, 2022, 08:20:38 am
This is not the first time I heard this theory about the government "causing" inflation; I was talking to my neighbor yesterday because our power was out and we were both doing yard work.  They insinuated that the current US administration is somehow responsible for inflation.

What particular policies is the government using to do this? Are all the efforts to curtail inflation somehow insidiously actually to increase it? Did the government tell everyone to overpay for their housing? Did the government force people to keep driving like maniacs on the highway and keep consuming gasoline? Does the government secretly pay people to produce less and pay more?

If only it were as simple as that...

(By the way yes, whoever made that graphic definitely is an expert at How to Lie with Graphs.)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 17, 2022, 08:35:39 am
Well, to be fair, I don't think government intentionally causes inflation. It's more negligence than intentional.
I mean, anyone who didn't see inflation as a byproduct of the COVID pandemic...just does not understand economics.

Does the government secretly pay people to produce less and pay more?
Of course not! The US Government openly pays people to produce less and pay more! Just look at farming!
I theorize that the United States could probably end world hunger. For one year. Then the farmers would all be bankrupt, and it would be worse.

Or look at Housing.  Does any State or Federal Government take on the cost of building/buying enough rental property to house all their poorer citizens? NO!
They instead shift that burden onto the private sector, and tries to get the private sector to "handle it" with minimal funding plus threats/regulations/restrictions.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 17, 2022, 08:57:49 am
It wouldn't even take the US to end hunger.  The amount of food waste across the world is staggering.  Trouble is getting the food from where it is, to where it isn't.  That takes actual work and eeeewww work!

Farm subsidies are not as simple to reduce as you'd think. To some extent it's worth paying them to ensure that there are always farmers producing food; you don't want them to quit when there are "short term" market disruptions that would otherwise put them out of business, which then would result in shortages later.  Consider all the recent industries we *didn't* subsidize; COVID catalyzed the departure of supply from the market, and now there just isn't a supply at all, which means prices go up for what is left.  We *could have* subsidized these industries, to keep them producing, so we wouldn't now have shortages.  But no, subsidies are bad!

The issue I have with things like "public" anything is that you have to be careful to strike a balance of having the recipients of said public benefit have some kind of stake in it. If you just give things to people, but don't enfranchise them with it, they'll just let it devolve into squalor.

I think the government could do more to discourage the increasing trend of real estate megacorps buying up housing.  I think this could be applied to any industry: tax rates should be proportional to market share, not just to profit.  This way you discourage consolidation.  Consolidation is only good if it results in efficiency, typically only in manufacturing; consolidation in literal rent-seeking industries is anathema.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 09:30:57 am
Quote
Trouble is getting the food from where it is, to where it isn't.  That takes actual work and eeeewww work

Better make it possible to have areas that don't produce food... start producing food. With modern seeds, irrigation and fertilizers there are few countries that can't grow enough food to prevent starvation. But that takes even more work.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 17, 2022, 10:46:10 am
Quote
Trouble is getting the food from where it is, to where it isn't.  That takes actual work and eeeewww work

Better make it possible to have areas that don't produce food... start producing food. With modern seeds, irrigation and fertilizers there are few countries that can't grow enough food to prevent starvation. But that takes even more work.

And those seeds & fertilizer are proprietary. Big Agro must be protected!

Remember: People starve so others can be rich.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on June 19, 2022, 09:16:38 am
It wouldn't even take the US to end hunger.  The amount of food waste across the world is staggering.  Trouble is getting the food from where it is, to where it isn't.  That takes actual work and eeeewww work!
Actually, I've delivered food "waste" in the form of fruit that fell off bagging machines onto the floor. What stopped that was the warehouse manager threatening firings and possibly criminal charges for taking "product" out the door despite it being explained that in reality it was actually "food waste" that goes in the dumpster along with hundreds of others of it's kind every day. So no, it's not about "eeeewww work", it's more obstacles set in place by people in authority, whether that is corporate or government. In addition there is little incentive to encourage it financially in the business, who may see donating "waste" product as creating supply in a way that negatively impacts retail sales down the road. My suggestion would be a local/state authorized pickup service for food wasters -> food charities and corporate donative tax breaks derived therefrom. The second part for tax breaks exists already to some degree, but an official local/state delivery truck that can be counted on to arrive timely during the facility's machine cleaning and sanitation shift on it's route to collect the local donations so they don't require refridgeration space at the factory location would help.

Farm subsidies are not as simple to reduce as you'd think. To some extent it's worth paying them to ensure that there are always farmers producing food; you don't want them to quit when there are "short term" market disruptions that would otherwise put them out of business, which then would result in shortages later.  Consider all the recent industries we *didn't* subsidize; COVID catalyzed the departure of supply from the market, and now there just isn't a supply at all, which means prices go up for what is left.  We *could have* subsidized these industries, to keep them producing, so we wouldn't now have shortages.  But no, subsidies are bad!
It's been a while since I've read much about agriculture, but you may be confusing crop insurances with subsidies. An argument against subsidies is that it drives the price of food up by paying large producers to not produce as much. As you said, this is useful to hinder unsustainably low prices. However when prices are high or there is a lack of supply it may be that subsidies could be temporarily reduced to encourage more planting. However that may be politically unviable as large agro producers are dominating the political scene for food producers, and besides lobbying, producers also have done such things as coordinated food dumping in the past over disputes regarding prices; for example milk producers dumping product onto the ground in protest over low prices, though I am unsure without checking if that was organizationally driven or individual acts. While that is less likely in a time of high prices I would assume, I can also assume there are avenues (including societal influence) for which large producers and agro organizations could negatively impact supply (thus raising price and pressure on government) and blame regulation, loss of subsides, etc and I would guess be completely in the clear civilly and legally. Thus there may be a social cost to lowering subsidies that raises prices even further during a price crunch, which the public would directly attribute to government action whether fair or unfair.

Another argument against subsidies is that small producers directly benefit far less from them and are greatly irritated by this, but that has even less to do with the recent price spike in global food prices I think.

In addition there were a number of covid related business payouts. If I may list an example favorable for the purpose and be excused for it not being a manufacturing industry, the airline industry received a large bailout and yet fares are very high right now. An economist or former regulator I read IIRC in an opinion piece around that time suggested they should sell some of their fleet as that may create competitors instead of a bailout, but they got the bailout after threatening massive layoffs of employees and of grounding their fleets for the pandemic instead. I am no expert and can't say whether it was necessary at the time, but when I read about high fares in an article recently that was what I thought of.

Also in an earlier post I recommended bringing the price of fertilizer down. What I should have meant was increase production of.
The issue I have with things like "public" anything is that you have to be careful to strike a balance of having the recipients of said public benefit have some kind of stake in it. If you just give things to people, but don't enfranchise them with it, they'll just let it devolve into squalor.
I would be curious how enfranchise would be defined in that quote.

I think the government could do more to discourage the increasing trend of real estate megacorps buying up housing.  I think this could be applied to any industry: tax rates should be proportional to market share, not just to profit.  This way you discourage consolidation.  Consolidation is only good if it results in efficiency, typically only in manufacturing; consolidation in literal rent-seeking industries is anathema.
Yes indeed on your thoughts on  consolidation of rentals. I also think public housing expansions would be a good idea; it may be I'd live in a concrete box+amenities with a small window in a big ugly building if it was possible to live in my concrete box paying rent by myself and if it did not require having me working 30 to 40+hrs a week yet with no savings for future investment in production capital of my own (I paid absurd rent for a one room the last time I did that which is why I'm complaining about saving while living on my own). NYC is doing some expansions for homeless shelters I read in the Times, but to me it sounds more like forced relocation to (for-profit?) facilities that ends with homeless individuals encouraged into signing a bank loan to escape curfew controls and other residency restrictions in the shelters. However that complete guess is a product of my own cynicism while reading some positive tone Times articles so I should clarify I don't know much about it besides those articles and it doesn't sound completely bad. Hopefully it's not an incarceration-lite system of profitable control that I'm making it out to be, but I also have read reasons to be skeptical of for-profit providers relying on government authority to pack them if that is what is being employed (articles were light on details, mostly an emotive piece, they followed politicians around to their events and what they did on day 1, 2 and 3 with positive quotes from a homeless person included).

I think a problem in your idea for taxation based on market share would be that it could be very bad for companies introducing absolutely new products, where they would have 100% or near the market share, as well as issues with patent right's exclusivity to production (unless that was scrapped recently and I missed it). Otherwise  at first glance it seems worthy of discussion, such as how broadly the categories of products are demarcated as broad demarcations such as by beverage sector rather than by dividing soda pop from beer would significantly change market shares. However I would warn (especially if this is an emerging meme that isn't your idea) to study very carefully what companies would gain and lose in this, as well as whether they could simply break up into smaller affiliates or otherwise mostly avoid it but their competion cannot for some reason, or if market shares in their industry would generally end up low enough that it is effectively a broad tax reduction cloaked in virtue to disguise it.



I have some thoughts on your earlier post soliciting thoughts on inflation, but I would ask permission first as I may feel the urge to toot my own horn a bit by quoting an old post of mine from damn near a decade ago.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 19, 2022, 02:47:40 pm
"Enfranchise" means "give a path to ownership" in that context - basically so you aren't a "renter forever."  Basically the opposite of disenfranchised citizens, where they just don't care about their community at all, so they do things like steal power lines and piping because they don't care about the infrastructure but instead want to sell the materials for a quick buck.

Enfranchising people reduces crime, builds stability, all the things you want in a neighborhood and, more generally, a society.

Yah the "tax based on market share" is definitely just an initial concept, nothing as refined as much as trying to avoid loopholes, etc.  The general idea is, what are some options that we have that would prevent consolidation? I personally feel that "having the government do it" is actually just another form of consolidation that should be avoided. To me the government should be putting in place rules (e.g., safety rules, employment standards, etc.), not "running" any businesses.

@Duuvian - why do you need to ask permission to talk about anything, even if it's just bringing up an old quote? We're all pretty open to discussion here.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on June 19, 2022, 09:35:07 pm
It was more trying to be polite through some pretext of humility but yes, you are correct

A better question is the Great Disorder still a thing that would prevent a quote from I think 2013 or 2014? I could copy and paste instead. I would have previewed it to check but I don't know if that grinds the gears of the forums.

As to "having the government do it" I generally agree with you but would argue there are on occasion times when it would be beneficial. May I ask if privatization of social security is something you would be in favor of? Roads privatization and tolling? Natural resource department privatization?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 20, 2022, 09:42:24 am
I think there's a subtlety about what "privatization" means.  I personally like the model for roads: the roads themselves are owned by the public, but the road construction/maintenance companies are private.  This model also makes sense for things like natural resource management.  Social Security I think should never be private, because its purpose is long-term social stability rather than short-term profit.  I can't think of a model where you could have "public ownership" of something social security but "private companies" implementing it, so it makes sense that it just be wholly public.

I'm not a fan of tolls on "public" roads like Interstates. Mostly because it's an annoyance (traffic disruption) and adds accidental complexity - you have to maintain the toll infrastructure on top of the roads themselves, so it's wasteful even if it ends up being an increase in net income to manage the roads.  I'd rather just pay a little more on my federal income tax.

I don't care about private (toll or otherwise) roads so long as they aren't the only effective road between two points. I know there are arguments for some toll roads along the lines of "but you can take the parallel non-toll road" but that parallel road is often longer distance, slower speed, and with more stops.  This makes the toll road basically rent-seeking.

EDIT: wow massive typo above, the construction companies *are* private; not *are not*  :-[
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on June 20, 2022, 10:13:11 am
I'm opposed to toll roads simply because the toll near work only accepts exact change and that means a lot of customers pester me for quarters I'll never have as work only gives me five dollar bills for change.

And this toll road only started doing that post quarantine and I suspect they just never bothered to hire people to man booths there for change or something.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 20, 2022, 03:21:08 pm
I'm opposed to toll roads simply because the toll near work only accepts exact change and that means a lot of customers pester me for quarters I'll never have as work only gives me five dollar bills for change.

And this toll road only started doing that post quarantine and I suspect they just never bothered to hire people to man booths there for change or something.

Toll roads near me don't even accept cash anymore.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on June 20, 2022, 06:07:56 pm
Quote
This model also makes sense for things like natural resource management.

Just....no. American businesses demonstrate they'll cut every corner imaginable *for profit.* There is no replacement good for the environment. If your cable company fucks you over, and your government doesn't allow them a monopoly, you find a new cable company. If a private company fucks up your resource management, what are you gonna do? Find another water table?

I mean, look at California and a lot of the west coast. They've bankrupted our natural resources and are steadily trying to suck more water from the rest of America. I don't think putting for profit companies in charge of that will in any way improve the situation. Look at Flint Michigan, where they hired outside 3rd parties to unfuck the system there and their answer was to tell people that unsafe levels of drinking water were safe. Until people lost their shit and then they spent actual money to repair the system. Logging companies only replant what they cut because they're required to, to maybe salvage the disruption to the ecosystem their industry causes.

Look at Nestle. Exxon. Any of the major and large corporations that deal with natural resources. The pipeline where the answer to it running over resource areas and tribal lands was "don't worry, it won't leak." They don't give a fuck if they're destroying the future's planet if it means more bucks today. Natural resources needed to be defend from industry and for-profit ventures. Doing otherwise is like making a fox the Chief Chick Inspector of the Hen House.

Maybe I'm reading too much into your statement, but the sentiment and the trust given to *for profit* enterprises unnerves me. Protections that result in less profits for them and a better quality of life for the rest of us should be the cost of doing business.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 20, 2022, 06:34:57 pm
Find another cable company...any other jokes?

The problem with the cable company is the same as the Electric company: Only one company owns the lines that you need to get their product.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on June 20, 2022, 09:41:34 pm
I mean, I switched here in my town? At an apartment even. That's not the case everywhere, which is why I qualified it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on June 20, 2022, 10:53:02 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I've been mentally raging for years at the idea that these same businesses are looking for deep-sea-resource exploitation rights. It is as if they want to work in the pressurized environment with crappy communications, in order to avoid oversight...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 21, 2022, 07:18:18 am
I think you misunderstood.  I mean the public owns the natural resources/infrastructure, and then bids out the management to any number of contractors.  This is NOT like cable companies, where the cable companies own the wires and are granted a monopoly.  This is the crux of the lobbying and lawsuits around municipal broadband - these communities want to own the infrastructure and just contract out the maintenance, but the telecom folks want to own the infrastructure.

This is not *exclusive mining rights* contracts - this is things like "we let you mine/lumber/etc. this area on behalf of the owners, the public".  Important distinction.  As far as I know, only roads are really done this way, maybe some localized instances otherwise, but it's not common.  I mean even power companies own their lines, they aren't "state owned."  And I'd argue power is just as critical as roads.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on June 21, 2022, 10:34:25 am
That's already how it works in many industries.

And it's fraught with corruption and mismanagement. Companies are regularly fined for cutting corners on contracts. Fined. Not prosecuted unless it's gross negligence. (And as one energy reporter put it: "You can't put a corporation in jail." Funny how they can use their money like they're people but when they break the law, suddenly they're a nebulous body that can't be held accountable except financially......)

I don't want to live in that world with anymore of our natural resources. "The public owns it" means very little when it's a commissioner awarding bidding contracts and we only find out months or years later that it was mismanaged. When a company does a shit job on your road ways, that's pretty obvious and immediate. There's delays, poor workmanship, etc...

Now imagine they're in charge of a reservoir, and they're cutting corners and you only found out when a damn bursts, when the water has become polluted or when there's a catastrophe. We're already seeing this in the hydroelectric power grid. Everything from depleting lakes and rivers to generate power to not maintaining the infrastructure.

If prisons and hospitals are any guide on how "for profit works" then we should keep their grubby hands as far away from our natural resources as possible.

I just watched a Last Week Tonight on local utilities. They're required by law to keep prices low since they're in control of power infrastructure. They make their money by starting new development projects and passing that cost off to the consumer. Result? Multi-billion dollar boondogles that only happened because the power companies want higher profits, and the only way to get that money is start new projects of vast scope so they can then offload that to customers as higher monthly fees. See also PG&E and the fact that their poor maintenance is responsible for countless wildfires in California that have killed people, while simultaneously power costs are bankrupting people.

That's ALREADY happening. And with today's political and regulatory climate, anything else we give them would probably have far fewer protections than the laws drafted 70 years ago. No way, no thanks.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 21, 2022, 08:28:52 pm
So just out of curiosity, what's the alternative? How would a truly "public" industry actually be any more accountable than private industries now that are supposedly overseen by public commissions?

I don't see trading one corporate overlord for another to be anything other than a lateral shift... or am I missing something?

This is starting to veer a bit off from economics to politics... maybe there are some economic theories here that apply?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: feelotraveller on June 22, 2022, 03:30:20 am
Maybe something like Triple Bottom LIne Accounting (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triple-bottom-line.asp)?

(Just to move the discussion along, since - unsuprisingly - I think that the profit motive is itself the problem.)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on June 22, 2022, 05:18:21 am
I think you misunderstood.  I mean the public owns the natural resources/infrastructure, and then bids out the management to any number of contractors.  This is NOT like cable companies, where the cable companies own the wires and are granted a monopoly.  This is the crux of the lobbying and lawsuits around municipal broadband - these communities want to own the infrastructure and just contract out the maintenance, but the telecom folks want to own the infrastructure.

This is not *exclusive mining rights* contracts - this is things like "we let you mine/lumber/etc. this area on behalf of the owners, the public".  Important distinction.  As far as I know, only roads are really done this way, maybe some localized instances otherwise, but it's not common.  I mean even power companies own their lines, they aren't "state owned."  And I'd argue power is just as critical as roads.

Oh that explains the temp service posting for road construction workers and bad patch jobs in the village then. I guess if you think that's better than careers and benefits. EDIT: Status of local roads: Main roads are pretty good repairs if they are used by the local superbusiness (relative to other local business) which handles huge traffic occasionally, expressways are well done but seems slow progress or something, one spot has been under work for a long time seems like the same every time I drive past. Local roads are awful everywhere I go except state college towns, the capital and The Big City, but maybe because I don't drive around those as often. Mid sized town nearby is awful except for major roads. Score of awful includes drivable at speed limit but zooming around holes in road where necessary to "I hope that's not as deep as it looks"

So just out of curiosity, what's the alternative? How would a truly "public" industry actually be any more accountable than private industries now that are supposedly overseen by public commissions?

I don't see trading one corporate overlord for another to be anything other than a lateral shift... or am I missing something?

This is starting to veer a bit off from economics to politics... maybe there are some economic theories here that apply?

Here is a magic paperwork everyone should know about:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_Information_Act_(United_States)
The sort of thing a person should be told to practice one time in high school, to obtain some document. Along with writing a practice motion to the court and how to access legal research terminals at universities, which ought to be expanded to local libraries as well so people don't have to drive 2 hours to look up caselaw or pay for lawyer priced software. Take that, profession of lawyers! I say that jokingly, they might think it's a cool idea. Please teach it in the public schools too.

I also wanted to say something skeptical about needing election campaign finance reform that can somehow be effective at reducing impact of donations while making it past existing precedent before public manufacturing industries would sound better to me on a big scale and even then I'd want them to more be price controllers through competition rather than driving everyone out of business, and I'd also want to read more books on it to say whether it was a good plan or not. What would you think about "emergency" industries that only power up with authority when there is a shortage, McTraveller? For example, when those corporates <points at people not in jail> recently almost starved those babies <points at babies> I say half jokingly. When that was on TV news I would do the South Park "They took err jerbs" meme about it, quite tastelessly replacing it with "strved err babies". I now quite sincerely regret doing this on several occasions, though perhaps it would indeed make for a fine episodic social critique.

I mostly meant shuttered industries but that seems like a difficult and expensive thing to have waiting. Maybe buyups of closed plants for mothballing? I dunno, I haven't thought it through or done the work to be qualified to say.

Perhaps in price emergencies also? I would guess rigs can be shuttered for a while due to all the inactive ones around here. That might actually be a better example.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/world/europe/ukraine-russian-oil-embargo.html

Spoiler: From article (click to show/hide)

I think though mostly saying it should be all A or B isn't quite right though, when it could be a mixture of the two and perhaps work better than either.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on June 22, 2022, 01:59:46 pm
Quote
I don't see trading one corporate overlord for another to be anything other than a lateral shift... or am I missing something?

I guess my point is the current system already has big short comings (local governments vary wildly in how responsible/corruption free they are) and I don't think making businesses responsible for resource management is going to improve things, and likely result in more corruption/waste of resources/abuse of public trust. Frankly I already think city planners, commissioners and the ones that give them kick backs already belong in jail when they fuck the public over for profit. At least that happened in Flint, Michigan.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on June 27, 2022, 02:48:21 am
Use of public funds needs to include transparency (oversight by interested parties) or the corrupt get away with it. Judgement by their peers is never enough.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 04, 2022, 07:12:39 am
Maybe something like Triple Bottom LIne Accounting (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triple-bottom-line.asp)?

(Just to move the discussion along, since - unsuprisingly - I think that the profit motive is itself the problem.)
this sounds like an amazing idea, my question is how do you quantify how well a company is caring about the environment or people? Profits are numbers and can be easily compared, how will they gauge the other two parameters and how to improve them? To be clear, I like the idea, I’m just having trouble picturing how to “graph” the social and environmental effects, like it’s easy to say profits increased by m [money] this month, but how do you say whether and by how much p [quality for people] or e [environmental impact were affected? I used variables because I remember economics involved lots of equations. I don’t know if I worded this in a correct way, if you need clarification just ask, I agree environment and people should absolutely be considered, I mention graphs since in various shows in movies about companies, the meetings involve discussions of data, and if things can be measured, you can track improvements or declines and attempt to correct as necessary to ensure improvement in all 3 parameters, yes I am aware this is not how one would talk in person about describing this but this is how my brain is thinking about it and I don’t remember what people usually say instead of parameter, it’s been a while since I’ve had a conversation about data, I don’t even think I ever conversed about data with someone in person
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: feelotraveller on July 04, 2022, 02:09:26 pm
[snip]
how do you quantify how well a company is caring about the environment or people?

One way to do this is to use a sustainability index to benchmark the company's efforts against.  (A common one that gets used is the Global Reporting Initiative (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Reporting_Initiative).)  But even just enabling accounting for CO2 emissions can be used to quantify a limited environmental impact, for instance.

(The deeper question lurking here is how to balance the different ledgers of people, environment and profit against one another.  While it is not easy (being green) attempts have been made, for example look at the way the Sustainable Development Index (https://www.sustainabledevelopmentindex.org/) tries to balance people and environment in a way that the Human Development Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index) does not.)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 06, 2022, 10:33:46 am
[snip]
how do you quantify how well a company is caring about the environment or people?

One way to do this is to use a sustainability index to benchmark the company's efforts against.  (A common one that gets used is the Global Reporting Initiative (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Reporting_Initiative).)  But even just enabling accounting for CO2 emissions can be used to quantify a limited environmental impact, for instance.

(The deeper question lurking here is how to balance the different ledgers of people, environment and profit against one another.  While it is not easy (being green) attempts have been made, for example look at the way the Sustainable Development Index (https://www.sustainabledevelopmentindex.org/) tries to balance people and environment in a way that the Human Development Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index) does not.)

Soylent Green is the great equalizer.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 06, 2022, 10:39:28 am
So, I'm starting to wonder if the latest recession talk is semi-manufactured.  I mean, sure it makes "economic sense", but I'm more interested in the employee-employer relationship.

Up until now, employers have been bitching that they can't get enough workers, and workers have been able to withhold labor to somewhat balance the inherently unequal relationship.  But this recession means employers can exert greater control over the workers. Or so they think.

Could companies really tank themselves, just to regain control over their labor pool? Does this have any real effect on the labor pool?

Thankfully, I'm self-employed, so I am mostly unaffected. When the economy changes, I just do different stuff.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 06, 2022, 11:22:46 am
Corps have savings, workers do not.

"Nobody wants to work" is a bullshit narrative anyway considering employers generally did nothing to adapt their hiring practices.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 06, 2022, 12:12:23 pm
Corps have savings, workers do not.

"Nobody wants to work" is a bullshit narrative anyway considering employers generally did nothing to adapt their hiring practices.
More to the point
"Nobody wants to work" is a made up narrative so employers do not HAVE to adapt their hiring practices.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on July 06, 2022, 07:49:23 pm
Corps have savings, workers do not.

"Nobody wants to work" is a bullshit narrative anyway considering employers generally did nothing to adapt their hiring practices.
More to the point
"Nobody wants to work" is a made up narrative so employers do not HAVE to adapt their hiring practices.

Well, no they did adapt by utilizing temp companies to fill non-temp positions (by which I mean positions that continue to exist past 6months to a year) to avoid paying benefits. It's comparable how pensions were largely phased out in favor of the 401k, which is now being phased out for ?

EJ, the economy is very complex but one thing to consider is that low interest rates are very good for the banks who are very good with the Federal Reserve. It's assumable the rates will go down eventually, though ideally not through the brutal reason of recession and social but not monetary policy austerity. For example in the previous recession it was necessary to lower the interest rates to absurdly low levels to encourage loaning in the trickle down scheme. A problem is after recovery the rates remained low for a very long time due to the sheer unstoppable power of the financial sector making it politically difficult to raise rates to say 2% or 3% before there was a crisis, due to fears of creating another recession or popping the bubble and taking blame for it. Paul Krugman and Larry Summers would differ and say keeping interest rates low was necessary in a time of Secular Stagnation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnation

Spoiler: From the wiki (click to show/hide)

Here is what I wrote in 2014 that supports this, though I do question if the theory as I've read it is ignoring specific modern causes to events in deference to less specific conditional comparisons. However their point of view is reasonable since my own point of view generally comes in the form of taking interest in what the economy is up to in regards to what conditions are causing me to pay attention to this dusty field of study rather than broad study as a field of choice, as well my general lack of comparable competency in the task of economics studies.

I had to copy and paste the post due to some odd quirk of the forums that won't allow it to have a quote button like most other posts. Here is the link to the post and a spoiler with a copy and paste.
http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=122640.msg5476637#msg5476637
Honestly we should be grateful it wasn't a big recession first and that it's started as inflationary issues, and that the Federal Reserve is raising rates, as a recession would be far more difficult to counter at near 0% interest rates. I think they even went below 0% rates for a period during the recession if I remember correctly, which I might not be.

Here is a theory post from 2013 that like the above spoiler also reflects the burning public anger at the banking industry of those times and long before I knew of the theory of Secular Stagnation. It is only partially true in hindsight, mostly in regards to looming inflation, as I assumed at the time it would be gradual in a boiling frog approach. I've since revised it as in the interim I learned about the two economies theory (wherin there is a luxury consumer economy and a common consumer economy, I probably don't have the terminology correct). In addition I think the banking sector as I would have believed in 2013 is not as much to blame in this economic situation of inflation today despite increasing the top of the economy's money supply, because 1: the relatively rapid inflation seen from 2021ish and in 2022 will at least temporarily raise interest rates and 2: they have little direct influence over consumer pricing of goods as far as I'm aware unless they are cooking futures or something. At least some of the inflationary issues are supply related, but I don't know where the bottleneck is from manufacturing process to consumer, though I would guess profit pricing shenanigans that reflect in the Consumer Price Index also play a role (especially if partisanship is involved); as well as logistics shortfalls and supply chain issues that fall into this. The conspiracist in me says it would be a politically fruitful time to create/bolster such crises through pricing/supply problems before an election especially while yelling loudly about government regulation being at fault, but I have no evidence of this other than fuel companies at least seeming to be doing this. Also I read an article that the now $100 cheapest adult men's shoes at the retailer costs them roughly $4 to import and place on the shelf, so maybe not such a crazy idea to ponder if it's gone beyond making consumers eat cost increases.

Figured you might find this interesting.  There was a massive leak of offshore accounts details, which is apparently got lots of juicy info in it.  http://www.icij.org/offshore/secret-files-expose-offshores-global-impact

http://www.icij.org/blog/2013/04/highlights-offshore-leaks-so-far

Nice, very well done and my appreciative thanks. At least 1/3 of the world's wealth is stagnating in bank accounts seemingly doing nothing useful, huh. No wonder I can't find a job.

That's why one of Occupy's main messages has been that inequality is the problem.  When somebody has so much wealth that they literally have no use for it other than hoarding it for its own sake, everyone else suffers for their obscene mental compulsion.

Don't banks invest money on behalf of their investors (account holders)? Just because there's money in an account, doesn't by itself tell us the "money is doing nothing useful".

The money sitting idle in the bank is a symptom of the problem, though, not the problem itself. Unutilized money ceases to have any economic meaning. e.g. if you had 1 billion dollars and bury it in a hole in the ground, that's 1 billion that's no longer in circulation. Too much aggressive investing could actually be inflationary / a bubble, e.g. you might prefer the money sits in the bank rather than everyone drives property prices through the roof for "investment properties", and regular people can't buy or rent a house.

If they don't invest it locally or in country at least, it encourages the current banking system (in the USA) to release freshly printed money directly to the banks because the system is designed from a trickle down perspective. If I may propose a  theory, this causes inflation which doesn't effect the banks (as much) because they are the ones receiving the new money supply. By giving it directly to banks to loan, if they fail to put it back into a useful place, there is no recourse but to give them even more money in the hope they do something useful. If they receive 100% or a large percentage anyways of the new money, by not loaning what they receive, the inflation would not apply as much to them as they are the ones receiving the new money and thus the inflation, which is sort of percentage based will not effect them meaningfully because it puts even more of a majority of the money supply into their power. Meanwhile, non-banks are effected dramatically by the manipulation of money supply and clamor for ever lower interest rates because apparently the banks are not receiving enough to loan.

Meanwhile, at such low interest rates, there doesn't seem to me much incentive for banks to loan out more than what is necessary to pay back the interest or to fulfill their obligations. I'd suggest this is why growth has been extremely modest; the banks only loan the bare minimum to cover their obligations, which are themselves growing greater due to their accumulation of Fed loans; in other words an increase of volume being behind the modest growth despite being near 0% interest to the banks and much higher when leaving the banks, allowing them to easily limit the amount they have to put out for loan. Thus, perhaps if a large, likely international bank wishes to continue to accumulate easy, easy capital which can then loaned out at dozens or hundreds of times the interest they pay to the Fed (possibly once Fed interest rates go back up, as to increase loans now might stimulate the economy enough to encourage the Fed to raise rates on future loans), a bank could easily benefit if they allow their money to stagnate for as long as it continues to result in very low interest rate loans from the Federal reserve.

My solution would be to raise the Fed's rate as well as raising the rate on already outstanding loans. It would not crash the banks unless they refuse to find good loans or unless good loans do not exist. If good loans do not exist if I had the power I'd set up a government controlled banking and loans to operate at a minimized loss headed up by people disconnected and perhaps even that despise the current banking industry yet who are knowledgeable and willing to learn enough to run such a thing, and the leader would have to be a person with political ambitions willing to sign a non-corruption agreement wherein he trades all his 'political capital' if the organization becomes corrupt under their watch.

To allow the banks to continue what I consider blatant looting of government and citizens will result in an a slowly at best but surely inflated currency, an inflation that effects the many small holders of money the most because they have the least and that little will be worth less in trade, and the much fewer large holders almost nothing because they will have accumulated all the additional money added to the system while still being the most likely, on an individual level, to be able to flee from the currency should it indicate a crash due to inflation due to having enough to be able to live internationally rather than being forced to live locally.

As you can see, as well as having a solution that was silly once it got past "raise interest rates" it was also quite wrong in some ways, for example inflation has increased markedly over a short period of time after relatively normal rates of increase. However if we recall to the tail end of the Trump years when stimulus checks went out, they were necessary to prevent recession as the average savings of the US household was something like $600 with a disruption of working hours foreseen. In that way it was somewhat correct in criticizing money supply distribution. If we see that at least some crucial industries are profiteering during economic crises yet are uncontrollable by public interest (government) while indeed applying pressure for further deregulation/bailouts/tax breaks, it's perhaps not such a crazy idea to suggest reforms. Perhaps an evololution of the quoted theory is to take some of the money supply distributed to the top, and instead distribute it at the bottom in some form of stimulating cheque.

That would of course were it to become more than an emergency policy likely require ways to control price as more money supply hits the non-luxury consumer market, and price controls would be exceptionally unpopular with business owners as well as potentially helping to cause negative situations such as the following link.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortages_in_Venezuela

Since I haven't learned my lesson about posting unrealistic (non)solutions: Perhaps a better way than price controls would be to limit such non-emergency Federal Reserve stimulating cheques to be only usable for small scale production capital that encourages the growth of "cottage" or micro-business to bolster supply rather than demand. For instance at age 25 and 35 a person became in this silly idea eligible for a check that may only be used on small scale production capital. That would have many issues of unfairness I haven't pondered in depth such as access/ownership of land as a determining factor of the value of a stimulus limited to the purchase of capital (no good if you don't have a place to put it unless it fits in an apartment). Also the impact on supply and how to guide a sideline stimulus to useful and non price cratering crashing ends should a particular capital investment prove popular and begin cranking out supply with.

However I truly appreciated the no questions asked stimulus checks when I received them so I am hesitent to say they should only be used in emergencies when I factor in the personally positive experience that receiving a government check from the Donald and then the Joe was for me at the time. I was like dang I sure could have used one of these during the recession instead of selling my car.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 08, 2022, 07:03:44 am
"People don't have savings, corporations do" is... misleading.  The people that have savings, tend to have a lot, but the people that have none, well, have none.  And yes I mean "people" not corporations.

The "looming recession" is interesting. My observation is that it's driven by a few geographic locations and a few industries (mostly financial, not manufacturing) with high impact.

In my geographic area there is no sign (yet) of recession - tons of help wanted signs, massive new construction projects (commercial and new subdivisions, which makes me sad because they're wiping out forests and meadows and making urban sprawl worse) everywhere, including lots of home improvement projects in residential areas, etc. (At least 5% of the homes in my neighborhood this year have had fairly expensive exterior-visible work done this year - new driveways, landscaping, roofing, decks, etc.).

That's to say - I think there is a narrative in the media regarding recession/expansion.  I think this is both political and economic - people want to use it to say "look at how bad this leadership is doing" to get in power, and others want a crash so they can buy at the low point and profit.  The cries of "the business cycle is healthy" do not convince me - I would much rather have a monotonically increasing economy at a lower rate than an economy with higher-rate booms and high-rate busts with the same average increase.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 08, 2022, 10:05:13 am
Related, and a warning to my friends in Tech Companies:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/07/tech/tech-layoffs-workers-silicon-valley/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/07/tech/tech-layoffs-workers-silicon-valley/index.html)

I predict that the push to get people back into the offices is just a smoke screen to force people to quit without benefits rather than be laid off with benefits.

Once the numbers are trimmed, Remote Work via contractors will become the norm. Contractors are just cheap for employers, and the companies just created a bunch of hungry potential contractors with the pushing out of as many employees as possible and layoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 13, 2022, 02:05:44 pm
 Starbucks found a new way to announce they're closing stores, Union Organizers call foul. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/12/business-food/starbucks-store-closures/index.html)

Open admission by Bank of America that they're going to crash the economy "To Fight Inflation" (https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/deep-recession-needed-cool-inflation-bank-of-america-analysts-say.amp)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 13, 2022, 03:07:23 pm
I've always been annoyed by the G7 central banks. "Nooooo we can't give money to poor people that raises inflation. Btw bankers here's unlimited cheap credit go nuts buy stocks lend to your m8s at 1% who gives a fuck it'll only cause inflation for the poor people lmao"
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Naturegirl1999 on July 14, 2022, 04:13:59 am
Another recession? Didn’t the last one last a while?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 14, 2022, 05:33:46 am
I don't think they know about second recession Pippin
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 14, 2022, 10:17:52 am
Another recession? Didn’t the last one last a while?
I don't think the last one really ended.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: feelotraveller on July 14, 2022, 01:19:08 pm
Just waiting for the Russians to crash the oil/gas economy.  Then we'll really have a recession.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 19, 2022, 07:14:27 pm
Starbucks announcing they will be closing more stores for "Security Reasons" (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/19/business/starbucks-closures/index.html)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 19, 2022, 09:14:40 pm
Queue the old jokes about how there were so many Starbucks, they started having to put Starbucks inside other Starbucks just so there was a place they could fit them.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: scriver on July 20, 2022, 01:00:48 am
Another recession? Didn’t the last one last a while?
I don't think the last one really ended.

It ended for the rich, but not for the poor.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 20, 2022, 05:44:28 pm
Damn, I thought banks were done discriminating against black & tan individuals...Nope. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redlining)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 21, 2022, 07:46:41 am
Yeah, actuarial risk is a harsh mistress.

You have to be willing to accept short-term losses to invest in areas like that and, sadly, people don't like taking risks.

The only solution really is to get people to start valuing something *other* than currency, because then the risk picture changes - that is, if you value civil stability, then it's higher risk to ignore those areas.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 22, 2022, 11:14:20 am
Yeah, actuarial risk is a harsh mistress.

You have to be willing to accept short-term losses to invest in areas like that and, sadly, people don't like taking risks.

The only solution really is to get people to start valuing something *other* than currency, because then the risk picture changes - that is, if you value civil stability, then it's higher risk to ignore those areas.
NO
That is NOT what the linked page said.

"Court system
In May 2015, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced that Associated Bank had agreed to a $200 million settlement over redlining in Chicago and Milwaukee. The three-year HUD observation led to the complaint that the bank purposely rejected mortgage applications from black and Latino applicants.[36] The final settlement required AB to open branches in non-white neighborhoods.[37]

New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced a settlement with Evans Bank for $825,000 on September 10, 2015. An investigation had uncovered the erasure of black neighborhoods from mortgage lending maps.[38] According to Schneiderman, of the over 1,100 mortgage applications the bank received between 2009 and 2012, only four were from African Americans.[39] Following this investigation, The Buffalo News reported that more banks could be investigated for the same reasons in the near future. The most notable examples of such DOJ and HUD settlements have focused heavily on community banks in large metropolitan areas, but banks in other regions have been the subject of such orders as well, including First United Security Bank in Thomasville, Alabama, and Community State Bank in Saginaw, Michigan.[40]

The United States Department of Justice announced a $33 million settlement with Hudson City Savings Bank, which services New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, on September 24, 2015.[41] The six-year DOJ investigation had proven that the company was intentionally avoiding granting mortgages to Latinos and African Americans and purposely avoided expanding into minority-majority communities. The Justice Department called it the "largest residential mortgage redlining settlement in its history."[42] As a part of the settlement agreement, HCSB was forced to open branches in non-white communities. As U.S. Attorney Paul Fishman explained to Emily Badger for The Washington Post, "(i)f you lived in a majority-black or Hispanic neighborhood and you wanted to apply for a mortgage, Hudson City Savings Bank was not the place to go." The enforcement agencies cited additional evidence of discrimination in Hudson City's broker selection practices, noting that the bank received 80 percent of its mortgage applications from mortgage brokers but that the brokers with whom the bank worked were not located in majority African-American and Hispanic areas."

...these are purely racially-motivated actions based upon prejudices and NOT based upon actual data.
The "short-term losses" are imaginary, otherwise these banks wouldn't be outright deleting the black & tan applicants.


Even more relevant:
"Credit cards
Credit card redlining is a spatially discriminatory practice among credit card issuers, of providing different amounts of credit to different areas, based on their ethnic-minority composition, rather than on economic criteria, such as the potential profitability of operating in those areas.[64] "
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 22, 2022, 02:26:52 pm
Yeah I guess if they didn't even provide evidence of risk, and just said "we're not even looking at anything in those zip codes" or whatever, that's a political (not economic) issue.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 27, 2022, 03:32:44 pm
Told you so... Trident Mortgage caught red handed redlining. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/27/business/doj-reaches-redlining-settlement-with-mortgage-lender-reaj/index.html)

Although, the settlement of "now go make money off of communities of color", doesn't sound like much of a sanction to me.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 04, 2022, 11:38:21 am
Interest on my money market account is now up to 1.49%.

Halfway to the 3% I was getting 20 years ago...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 04, 2022, 11:40:06 am
Interest on my money market account is now up to 1.49%.

Halfway to the 3% I was getting 20 years ago...
...back when the inflation rate was 3% instead of 8%.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on August 04, 2022, 12:54:47 pm
First cut of the profit (from investing your money) goes to the guys investing the monies.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 06, 2022, 01:35:45 pm
First cut of the profit (from investing your money) goes to the guys investing the monies.
You forgot to mention they charge a yearly fee regardless of whether you make any profit.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on August 07, 2022, 04:42:16 am
U.S. automakers say 70% of EV models would not qualify for tax credit under Senate bill

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-auto-trade-group-warns-ev-tax-proposal-would-make-70-ineligible-2022-08-05/

Snippets from the article:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Well, it seems he is going after Detroit now. Do they make car parts in West Virginia?

This is why it's a bad idea (from article):

Spoiler: snippets (click to show/hide)

This isn't some bullshit "we don't want to spend money on domestic capital" like some industries do. It's that there are limited deposits of these minerals especially in the Western hemisphere.

The primary untapped source I know of is in Brazil and Bozo has been trying to force lithium mines open on indigenous lands for the mining industries due to rising lithium prices in the face of opposition from the locals. Notice this potential (and I would guess unethical if Bozo pushes it through before they boot him out) source of lithium is in South America, not North America where this bill is limiting sourcing from if I read the article correctly. It makes no sense whatsoever unless the objective is to kill off the tax credits to people who purchase EVs, which by the way have already hit their cap of 200k vehicles for both Tesla and GM and should be expanded due to the apparent success of the program.

The reason lithium is preferred is because it is light in weight. There are other ways to manufacture batteries but they result in a heavier product, which is important in automotive design. Heavier batteries would be more acceptable in stationary arrangements such as a home battery storage system.

The bits about limiting it to vehicles under 80k$ and under a certain income for the purchaser I'm more than fine with; those actually seem too high still. I'm not trying to help the doctor or lawyer get an expensive Tesla the $7500 tax break won't make or break the deal on, I'm proposing trying to help the high school educated worker get a cheap mass producted GM mini to go to work on the line or a family a cheap mass produced small suv or minivan, that's as close to 10k$ I can get it to with the tax break. That's an achievable price for a new car when you are earning lower wages (if the battery lasts or is under warranty as I've heard it raises service costs if that goes bad quickly), so if you want to build and sell a lot of cars and employ a lot of people that's how you do it if the cost of production allows that at the scale of production needed to closely match potential sales volume potential at that price.

When I say scale of production that's important, because if automakers are continually being pressured to keep their old IC lines running to save the oil industry instead of focused production, the scale of production is split between IC and electric engines, and that increases the price of production of both as bigger scale = lower price of production per unit generally (the risk is overproduction at that point as while demand will go up with lower prices there is still a finite demand for vehicles)

So basically this industry protectionist scheme at the cost of other industries is a bad idea that I think could be fixed if the cap on vehicle price and purchaser income were lowered as a tradeoff to accepting an actually functional supply chain for the EV industry. I think this guy is more concerned with choking off the latter though. I'd be happy to be proven wrong if anyone knows of plentiful lithium in North America that would be able to supply demand for lithium, which by the way is hitting incredible prices in commodities already last I checked.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on August 07, 2022, 12:50:40 pm
I haven't been able to find the text of the Manchin/Schumer deal anywhere, just the chatter about it, but it is not likely to require that the lithium be mined in the USA. It is likely to require that battery component production, and possibly the recycling, be based in the US or in closely allied countries.

The point that the USA doesn't have significant known lithium deposits is incredibly important. If the recycling process doesn't retain enough of the used lithium mass to make recycling worthwhile, the industry will talk loudly about recycling but actually create batteries with newly mined lithium, and this fake-recycling and mining will be done outside of the USA. This recycling process needs to be kept close to home and needs to be bound to US regulatory observance.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 07, 2022, 01:40:21 pm
That bill is hilarious for so many reasons, the first of which is in the woefully optimistic name.  That, however, is treading more on Ameripol than the spirit of this economics thread though...

From the economics standpoint I just wonder if the incentives are meaningful to encourage investment or if they will prove to be adverse market distortions.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on August 07, 2022, 03:41:34 pm
tbf the US can barely make good cars either way.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 12, 2022, 12:42:24 pm
Sooo... anyone know how I can (somewhat safely) open a savings account in Argentina?  Their interest rates are now 70%...

Although supposedly their inflation is also 70% a year....  :o

Seems the currency has devalued by about 35% this year, so even taking that into account, should still come out like an effective 35% interest rate...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2022, 05:55:25 pm
Maybe buy some Argentinian bonds if you feel like they're capable of repaying the bond
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 12, 2022, 03:48:29 pm
Lots of high-profile strikes occurring or looming in the US (teachers, nurses, potentially rail workers) prompting this question: do strikes really hurt "management" or do they end up hurting customers?

I can't see teachers strikes hurting schools (in fact 2nd party information has it that schools save tons of money in the short term if a strike occurs), but they massively hurt students.

Nurses striking - doubt it will hurt CEO pay or massive health industry income, but it puts patients at risk.

Freight workers striking - again, I doubt it will cause CEOs pain, but it will mean even more shortages of goods on peoples' shelves.

Is there a better alternative to strikes that will protect both workers and consumers?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 12, 2022, 04:06:51 pm
Is there a better alternative to strikes that will protect both workers and consumers?

The alternative, I imagine, would be for the government to intercede on the workers' behalf and forcibly implement their demands. The Capitalist Class simply has a great deal more fat to survive long droughts with, and can out-survive anyone in the Working Class. I'd imagine the more real threat comes from the other members of the Capitalist Class, sensing weakness and smelling blood, moving in to displace them in the market, effectively kicking the weakling out of the country club of rich assholes, from which they can never return.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 13, 2022, 11:30:59 am
In a macro sense, sure… but how to make it work in a micro sense? I mean, you can’t declare to give workers a raise that doesn’t have revenue to support it. Best you can do is reallocate revenue, yes?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on September 13, 2022, 12:15:59 pm
From a capitalistic sense, if the business cannot both be profitable and afford to pay its employees a reasonable wage, does it deserve to exist? And if it still needs to exist, then does that not therefore mean government involvement, either via subsidization or state ownership, is required?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on September 13, 2022, 01:08:03 pm
Lots of high-profile strikes occurring or looming in the US (teachers, nurses, potentially rail workers) prompting this question: do strikes really hurt "management" or do they end up hurting customers?

I can't see teachers strikes hurting schools (in fact 2nd party information has it that schools save tons of money in the short term if a strike occurs), but they massively hurt students.

Nurses striking - doubt it will hurt CEO pay or massive health industry income, but it puts patients at risk.

Freight workers striking - again, I doubt it will cause CEOs pain, but it will mean even more shortages of goods on peoples' shelves.

Is there a better alternative to strikes that will protect both workers and consumers?
No

At some point, the Strike is the only option. Thankfully, the Threat of the Strike is sometimes sufficient, but that only works if a Strike is possible.

Funny thing: Most Nurses/Teachers are government/government-adjacent employees.  So two out of three are actually the Government being cheap, not the private sector as much.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on September 13, 2022, 01:33:42 pm
Is there a better alternative to strikes that will protect both workers and consumers?

The alternative, I imagine, would be for the government to intercede on the workers' behalf and forcibly implement their demands. The Capitalist Class simply has a great deal more fat to survive long droughts with, and can out-survive anyone in the Working Class. I'd imagine the more real threat comes from the other members of the Capitalist Class, sensing weakness and smelling blood, moving in to displace them in the market, effectively kicking the weakling out of the country club of rich assholes, from which they can never return.

This, but also:

Of course schools save a ton of money in the short term if a strike occurs. School shuts and they don't pay their striking workers. It's just that in the long term, if they want to keep having a school, they need to pay people to work at it. The point is not necessarily to hit them in their wallets, it's to make their business stop functioning.

The point of striking is to force the organization to shut down by depriving it of labor. It's like the part of a job interview when you say: "I'd love to work here, but I would need more money." It's just that they're saying: "look, I've been working here for 10 years and I want to keep working here, but guys, you gotta pay us more. Seriously. We've been telling you."

The last thing is: I'm not sure you realize this, but organizing a union or a strike is a fuckton of work. Also, sometimes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain) bad shit happens to you.

People don't strike when asking nicely works. Striking is usually only LEGAL when it's demonstrable that the company has been negotiating in bad faith, and then organizing the strike -- "hey time to deliberately deprive yourself of income" -- is hard. But when it works, it gets results. That's why people bother to do it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on September 13, 2022, 01:44:06 pm
Is there a better alternative to strikes that will protect both workers and consumers?

The alternative, I imagine, would be for the government to intercede on the workers' behalf and forcibly implement their demands. The Capitalist Class simply has a great deal more fat to survive long droughts with, and can out-survive anyone in the Working Class. I'd imagine the more real threat comes from the other members of the Capitalist Class, sensing weakness and smelling blood, moving in to displace them in the market, effectively kicking the weakling out of the country club of rich assholes, from which they can never return.

This, but also:

Of course schools save a ton of money in the short term if a strike occurs. School shuts and they don't pay their striking workers. It's just that in the long term, if they want to keep having a school, they need to pay people to work at it. The point is not necessarily to hit them in their wallets, it's to make their business stop functioning.

The point of striking is to force the organization to shut down by depriving it of labor. It's like the part of a job interview when you say: "I'd love to work here, but I would need more money." It's just that they're saying: "look, I've been working here for 10 years and I want to keep working here, but guys, you gotta pay us more. Seriously. We've been telling you."

The last thing is: I'm not sure you realize this, but organizing a union or a strike is a fuckton of work. Also, sometimes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain) bad shit happens to you.

People don't strike when asking nicely works. Striking is usually only LEGAL when it's demonstrable that the company has been negotiating in bad faith, and then organizing the strike -- "hey time to deliberately deprive yourself of income" -- is hard. But when it works, it gets results. That's why people bother to do it.

I'd like to reiterate the following: "some 10,000 armed coal miners confronted 3,000 lawmen and strikebreakers (called the Logan Defenders)[5] who were backed by coal mine operators during the miners' attempt to unionize the southwestern West Virginia coalfields when tensions rose between workers and mine management."
...as someone from a state where our governor wants to disarm everyone, to the point of outlawing the possession of firearms during a civil protest.  This extends to the protesters. You can clearly see the intent is to allow police to slaughter protesters.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on September 13, 2022, 04:18:15 pm
Pretty sure other countries without widespread public ownership of firearms still have unions and striking going on without mass slaughter of strikers by police officers. 1900s USA company towns were in many ways closer to slave labour camps rather than an employer/employee relationship.

Plus if the only thing protecting the public from police officers is the possibility of the public fighting back, you're already living in a horribly dystopian powder key and not an example of a modern stable society.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 13, 2022, 08:46:38 pm
I think my questions include:

A) What's the (economic) rationale behind striking instead of quitting and starting your own organization?

B) What do you do when the "management" is different than the "customer" - especially relevant for things like public teachers, law enforcement, etc.  These are "businesses" that society doesn't really want "to be put out of business", yes?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on September 13, 2022, 09:12:09 pm
Consider it could actually be cheaper to negotiate to strikers demands instead of lost time and money to find, hire, and train a brand new workforce.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on September 13, 2022, 09:26:08 pm
A) What's the (economic) rationale behind striking instead of quitting and starting your own organization?

I'm a teaching assistant with a university and a member of a union that is a chapter of the UAW. I do not personally have the capacity to start an R1 university. Pooling all the wealth of the 17k other TAs is not likely to yield funds, land, and personnel that could start an R1 university. Indeed, the university where I currently work was founded via land grant, meaning the US government told the native people living there to scoot elsewhere and then built a college on it. So first we would have to start an army, then we would have to find some land to steal, and then we would have to start a university.

The kind of people who work at foundries seldom have the capital to start foundries, or hospitals, or schools, or auto plants, and often these industries are legally protected through e.g. certification processes. That's why management is called the "owning class" and their employees are called the "working class."

Extra credit: How many of these common institutions operate their businesses on 99-year land grants from the Catholic Church, and how did they get the land in the first place?

Bonus points: Vector's cousin is fucking terrible at passing tests and taking orders and wants to be in charge of something instead of working at a foundry like her dad, or sweating away in a university like Vector. She convinces her partner to buy a shitty piece of scrublands in the desert for 10k without any facilities on it, and decides that she's going to start a school for emotionally damaged high schoolers.

a. If you were also related to Vector's cousin, how many hours of free physical labor would you be willing to put in building a school on that land?

b. How much would you insure it for given that it's also going to be a commune for the homeless and Vector's cousin is really blasé about things like background checks?

c. How much would you have to pay Vector to be the math teacher on this commune given facts a. and b., Vector's clean background check and years of teaching experience (not held by cousin), and that Vector's cousin needs someone else to teach fractions?

d. By comparison, is striking easier or harder than forcibly pulling Vector's cousin's head out of her ass. Round to the nearest fifth


B) What do you do when the "management" is different than the "customer" - especially relevant for things like public teachers, law enforcement, etc.  These are "businesses" that society doesn't really want "to be put out of business", yes?

Well, for example, in Oakland, California when the teachers went on strike, more than 95% of the students also walked out of school even though this meant that many of them didn't get fed. When customers are different from management, your goal is to get the customers to join the picket line in order to make the strike big, disruptive, and most importantly fast.

PS: The cops can sell some of their military hardware or civil forfeitures if they need a payraise, thanks!

(Whoops, they already do that)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on September 13, 2022, 10:35:28 pm
Striking is a revolt against economic and social slavery. Economic and social slavery are the result of "local politics".

So, your state is going to receive federal funding for new schools... Who chooses who receives the project work? Who chooses the location of the school with regard to the communities it will serve. Who chooses the supply lines of food and tools that the students will consume? Who chooses what businesses will be allowed nearby?

By the time the local politicians are done in the backrooms, it may seem like they are not profiting greatly, but they have established years worth of income for themselves and their associates, and the education the community receives is secondary.

What Vector said about, "That's why management is called the "owning class" and their employees are called the "working class."", that is the truth of it. If Vector's cousin's endeavor in the desert became successful or challenged the "local political body"s profit or credibility in some way, a representative of that local political body would come along looking to interact... and the interaction would be something like "you should send some of this profit through us or we'll make your activity illegal".
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 14, 2022, 06:33:44 am
This has veered out of economics I think into politics - which suggests that perhaps the main reason for strikes isn't purely economic, but strongly political - due to things mentioned like regulatory capture, certification requirements, etc.

I think there's also a sociological part - consider I know someone who started a school (not a university, just an elementary school) so I know it doesn't take that much capital.  I also know that the people who built foundries didn't use their own money - they leveraged the heck out of it. So if 1000 foundry workers got together, they sure could build a foundry, because they could make a good pitch to a capital firm: "we have the most important part of a foundry - an available experienced workforce."

Ultimately, given that I don't know the actual financial details of all the organizations against which strikes are being conducted, I should probably just stay quiet.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Vector on September 14, 2022, 01:42:03 pm
In the case of the rail strike, it's because the rails won't budge on having 24/7 on-call scheduling for rail employees. Wages aren't the problem.

(Next: start a new freight railway system. Unfortunately, they needed slave labor to build the current one).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on September 14, 2022, 04:59:45 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/13/rail-strike-economy-impact/#UC5I6ODJI5HENAZGYZGWISLZAQ-2 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/13/rail-strike-economy-impact/#UC5I6ODJI5HENAZGYZGWISLZAQ-2)

Because I had no idea what Vector was saying until I read that article.

"Why is a strike looming?
A crucial issue preventing an agreement is some of the largest carriers’ points-based attendance policies that penalize workers, up to termination, for going to routine doctor’s visits or attending to family emergencies. Conductors and engineers say that they can be on call for 14 consecutive days without a break and that they do not receive a single sick day, paid or unpaid."

I'm appalled that the media narrative seems to be so against the workers. They have a word for making someone work in conditions they don't approve of....
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 15, 2022, 12:23:24 pm
I think the media is against the workers because we have a national worker shortage - the average person says "I want to buy X, and it's either super expensive or I can't get it at all because it's just not available."  So people will watch anything that confirms "yeah yeah, it's all these other people, causing me to suffer!" and get the organizations that show that kind of material the sweet, sweet advertising income.

That said - I thought there was a federal law that required sick days at least FMLA? Or is there something unique about the rail-workers laws that exempts it?

Also - doesn't OSHA still apply? Such as if you are on-call for 14 days, if you work during that time, aren't you required to have some time off at some point?

I'm actually ignorant here.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on September 15, 2022, 12:26:49 pm
we have a national worker shortage

We have a shortage of wages, not workers.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 15, 2022, 01:48:57 pm
I wish I could believe it was as simple as "just pay people more."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 15, 2022, 02:38:49 pm
Lol. It kinda is though. Maybe give that a go first?

"We've tried nothing and are all out of ideas! Guess the workers should stop complaining!"

EDIT: Actually I suppose they did try some things. Candy bowls and $5 Amazon giftcards. What more could one want??
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 15, 2022, 03:17:04 pm
Are you talking in aggregate, or for specific companies?

I mean a significant portion of people are employed by "small companies" which already have really slim margins... how can they afford to pay more?

I feel like many people have never considered what it takes to maintain a business?  I think I have experience bias, as both my parents have tried to start and run businesses (with varying degrees of success).  I've also worked for small mom-and-pop businesses (literally a 3-person consulting company), medium-sized companies (50-500 employees) and mega corps (Fortune 100 kind of stuff).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 15, 2022, 06:05:56 pm
Multinational corporations are making out like bandits ever since the pandemic began. It is ridiculous to think they can't pay their workers a living wage.

And if your business can't be profitable enough to pay your workers a living wage -- it doesn't deserve to exist.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on September 16, 2022, 08:56:19 am
I wonder if we let businesses get used to the idea they could keep gouging us for all we're worth and, like anyone else, they kept pushing that envelope and we've now reached a point where it's not just unfair, but actually getting unsustainable. Not literally, of course, we could keep running at poverty wages, but people don't work like that.

In other news, Liz Truss wants to uncap the UK's banking bonuses (For reasons that are certainly not "Because they'll give me kickbacks for it") and nobody likes it. The highest polling group is the Tories, and they're at 20% support to 65% oppose.

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1570430058292211718
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Jopax on September 16, 2022, 09:32:14 am
I guess this could go here as it's economy related, but a somewhat funny thing is happening in Croatia. So in light of recent inflation trends the govt has issued a price fix on certain essential goods like flour, milk, oil, sugar etc. meaning that their price can't go above a certain point. Croatia also has certain laws that prohibit selling goods for below their minimum acquisition price, this is to prevent unfair practices like massively undercutting products when you can absorb the cost to drive competition out of business and similar shady stuff companies would  try and pull if they weren't leashed properly.

The problem we now get to is that because the base price of sugar has gone up past the price cap set by the govt retailers are now legally unable to sell it, and since the laws are made by incredibly competent people, nobody thought to introduce exceptions and provisions for extremes such as this one. And now you're stuck with a nation-wide sugar shortage, except there's plenty of sugar in every supermarket, but nobody can legally buy it :V
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 16, 2022, 10:07:31 am
Oof! That is a good example of why price controls are often considered to be a Bad Move.

So for “banking bonuses” - I’d say “sure there is no limit, but your marginal tax rate increases according this formula that increases up to 100%” - so you don’t end up with situations like Croatia but you also make it not worth it to keep accumulating more wealth.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on September 16, 2022, 10:39:18 am
Presumably the easy solution would be allow the sale at cap price if acquisition price is higher than the cap. Businesses would be selling it at a loss and there'd probably be some extra loopholes to consider, but businesses sell stuff as a 'loss leader' all the time so it wouldn't be unprecedented for businesses to work around.

Worst case you'd need to bring in temporary subsidization of the good and pay businesses the difference, but ideally would only want to do that for small retailers but not large who can afford to absorb the losses into their existing profits on other goods.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on September 16, 2022, 01:16:01 pm
I guess this could go here as it's economy related, but a somewhat funny thing is happening in Croatia. So in light of recent inflation trends the govt has issued a price fix on certain essential goods like flour, milk, oil, sugar etc. meaning that their price can't go above a certain point. Croatia also has certain laws that prohibit selling goods for below their minimum acquisition price, this is to prevent unfair practices like massively undercutting products when you can absorb the cost to drive competition out of business and similar shady stuff companies would  try and pull if they weren't leashed properly.

The problem we now get to is that because the base price of sugar has gone up past the price cap set by the govt retailers are now legally unable to sell it, and since the laws are made by incredibly competent people, nobody thought to introduce exceptions and provisions for extremes such as this one. And now you're stuck with a nation-wide sugar shortage, except there's plenty of sugar in every supermarket, but nobody can legally buy it :V

And I assume Honey, Maple Syrup, Cornmeal, and Oatmilk are out of stock or hugely expensive.

we have a national worker shortage

We have a shortage of wages, not workers.

There is actually a worker shortage.
Most businesses were designed to work with the high numbers of Baby Boomers.  Innovations that would reduce worker demands were put off to some extent because there was just soo much cheap labor.

Now there isn't, because those Baby Boomers are retiring and the following generations are significantly smaller in size.

Imagine: Every employer now has to "get by" with one less person. Because those are the demographics.

But remember: Most of your politicians/voters are Baby Boomers, because they still have that number advantage. Old people vote.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Lidku on September 28, 2022, 10:37:55 am
So the UK right now...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on September 28, 2022, 10:59:21 am
We're not in an economic meltdown yet, we're just heading straight to that waterfall, refusing the change course, and turning up the engine power.

EDIT: I beg your pardon, as a Tory MP has assured us, it's not Trussonomics causing the meltdown, it's the markets being terrified that Kier's going to get into power. (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/sep/28/keir-starmer-mini-budget-truss-kwarteng-labour-conference-rayner-uk-politics-news-live?page=with:block-6334570c8f086841b84c3be6#block-6334570c8f086841b84c3be6)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on September 29, 2022, 12:36:34 pm
Well, to continue on the theme of Lizzy's idiocy, she's insisting on steering the ship towards the waterfall.

She's acting like a literal child here. She'd rather crash the economy *and* be humiliated later than be humiliated now. It was nice guys, I enjoyed being part of a rich nation while I could. No amount of schadenfreude can overcome the horror of watching the UK economy collapse in real time because 0.02% of the population voted for an actual drooling moron despite being told, repeatedly, that she was an actual drooling moron.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 29, 2022, 01:17:00 pm
Please stick to economics, not politics, thanks!  We have other threads for political discussion. If you can focus on the economic theory behind it - what is different about this economic cycle than previous ones, for example?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on September 29, 2022, 03:10:09 pm
We've got insane inflation and she's insisting on tax cuts is what it boils down to. She's subscribing to trickle-down economics which, as is well known, doesn't work. Effectively she's pumping money into a system that needs less money, and even worse she's ensuring that the inflation comes from the top, so it's not that poor people get more money but it's worth less, rich people get more money that's worth less AND poor people get the same amount of money that's worth less. The BoE is trying its damndest to prevent the economy from imploding so it's directly contradicting the government's policies, and it's already had to take some pro-inflationary measures to stop everyone's pensions from being wiped out. The markets are reacting accordingly and utterly shitting themselves, and even the IMF is saying that this is unprecedented. There was a guy from there on the news saying this is the sort of thing they've only witnessed in emerging economies, not mature ones. Truss also told everyone else they need to cut taxes to increase growth.

To sum it up: The economy was heading towards a cliff edge. Rather than put on the brakes, Truss and Kwarteng have decided that the better course of action is the press their foot on the accelerator on the basis that we might actually fly instead. Everyone on the planet's calling them idiots because the economy doesn't actually have wings, but they're insisting that it does. In fact, they've told everyone else their economies have wings and will take off if they just press the accelerator down too, which everyone else ignored because it's insanity.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 29, 2022, 03:25:06 pm
I'd argue they indeed are putting their foot on the wrong accelerator.  For an economy to grow you need production of goods and services; so policies should be encouraging that.  I agree that putting your foot on the "increase money supply" accelerator seems like a foolish policy.

Higher velocity of money is only useful if it produces new goods and services; it only creates inflation if there is static (or falling) real productivity.

For example: I want to buy a new car in the US, but there just isn't enough production for me to buy it.  I can't buy literally something that effectively costs a person's annual wage, because there is no production.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on September 29, 2022, 03:25:49 pm
Please stick to economics, not politics, thanks!  We have other threads for political discussion. If you can focus on the economic theory behind it - what is different about this economic cycle than previous ones, for example?

It's hard to not be political when the problem is literally macroeconomics/monetary policy at work.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on October 01, 2022, 09:36:17 am
Interesting article about the study that helped prompt Britain's descent into austerity from 9 years ago:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22223190

Turns out there was a mistake in it. Debt-to-GDP ratio doesn't have anywhere near as much of an impact as the original study predicted.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on October 01, 2022, 10:43:01 am
Interesting article about the study that helped prompt Britain's descent into austerity from 9 years ago:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22223190

Turns out there was a mistake in it. Debt-to-GDP ratio doesn't have anywhere near as much of an impact as the original study predicted.
Oh, it looks like it's had quite an impact  :P
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: da_nang on October 03, 2022, 04:31:35 pm

For context, Lehman Brothers collapsed at approximately 750–850.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 03, 2022, 05:19:16 pm
Damn. I didn't turn all my sterling into tinned beans yet
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on October 03, 2022, 08:41:12 pm
I guess this removes one barrier to the UK joining the European Union....
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on October 04, 2022, 01:06:11 am
OK, can someone translate that for me? I've no idea what that means.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: da_nang on October 04, 2022, 02:40:35 am
A credit default swap (CDS) is essentially an insurance for investors who fear the company in question may be close to default. If the price for Credit Suisse CDS is going up then that will mean the investors believe there is an increased risk that Credit Suisse goes belly up.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 04, 2022, 07:39:42 am
OK, can someone translate that for me? I've no idea what that means.
Lets pretend I am a dickhead banker. Through fractional reserve banking I make money lending money I don't have to people who have less and charging them interest on it. But there's a problem: I could actually lose money if everyone I opened debt accounts or can't pay back. Because I am a dickhead banker I would rather have someone else pay for the consequences of my actions. And so you get the credit default swap.
The way it works is that I offer to enter into a contracted arrangement with another person or firm. I offer to pay them a premium every month/quarter/annum in exchange for them for them offering to pay the full debt amount outstanding if the original holder of debt cannot repay. The seller is happy with this arrangement because they can stand to generate a great income for doing nothing and no cost of capital as long as the original debt is repaid. The banker is happy with this arrangement because the seller of the CDS just took on all the risk for him. In theory bank loans should be regulated by the bank to ensure that high risks of default are unlikely, and the CDS is effectively just an insurance policy for the odd 1 in 100 loans that will default. In practice we get 2008 because greed is good and being a responsible human being is not for bankers.

But that's besides the point here. What is important is that:
CDS's are purchased to protect holders of debt against the borrower of that debt becoming unlikely to ever repay it. Credit Suisse issued a lot of bonds to a lot of people, so there's a lot of Credit Suisse debt owned by a lot of people (or more accurately, by a few funds and banks who own a lot of their bonds). These institutions have reason to believe Credit Suisse will not be able to honour their bonds and repay them when they mature, so they are buying CDS's en masse to protect against this event. The absolute mad fuckers who are selling the CDS's are willing to bet that Credit Suisse will be able to repay their bonds, on the basis that they enjoy receiving huge fat record-breaking premiums at the low low risk of losing everything they own to Satan's bumhole
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on October 04, 2022, 11:59:08 pm
Oh.

OOOOOH.

I think I remember there being a thing a few years back about a lot of the regulations designed to stop 2008 happening again being repealed because, y'know it couldn't happen a second time and they paid us money, guessing this might be the fallout from that?

But to sum it up, the banks have debtor insurance, the problem is that the debtor insurance looks like it might not actually be able to afford to insure the bank because the banks, being the Very Stable Geniuses that they are, decided to give way too much money to people who couldn't afford it? A bit like the difference between insurance paying for one house that burned down versus paying for a whole city?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 05, 2022, 07:18:31 am
Well in this case I imagine it has loads to do with Credit Suisse having already given money to high stakes gamblers like Archegos and Greensill, and both of the gamblers in this case lost big. And yeah, it is that Greensill, the one that hired David Cameron to try and convince government to give Covid loans to bail them out. So it's more that the bank has already lost loads of money and investors fear the bank is unable to pay back its own debts. That's why Credit Suisse bonds were plummeting and CDS skyrocketing
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on October 05, 2022, 10:43:09 am
Just saw an op-ed on CNN about how someone thinks a solution to high inflation is to increase minimum wage.

While I know that increases in minimum wage don't have a strong causal influence on inflation, raising minimum wage doesn't reduce inflation... it barely mitigates its effects.   ::)

Also if you want to look at more odd choices - check out OPEC cutting production explicitly to increase prices, because they are worried about reduced demand due to worldwide recession.  Talk about a move that does have strong causal influence on inflation and recession...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: None on October 05, 2022, 11:05:25 am
Is that a solution proposed to fix inflation or a solution proposed to ease the pain of inflation? Rising prices affect different wealth groups very differently.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on October 05, 2022, 11:07:11 am
It was in the same op-ed section as "raise interest rates" and "release strategic reserves" - so it seemed like it was for "addressing inflation" not just the "address the pain of inflation."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on October 05, 2022, 12:31:02 pm
Increasing minimum wage IS inflation. Anyone that can't concede that point is an idiot.

Now, I'm not necessarily saying that it's not an appropriate response to inflation, but you have to get the inflation under control before you throw more gas on the fire.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 05, 2022, 12:51:31 pm
Increasing minimum wage IS inflation. Anyone that can't concede that point is an idiot.

Now, I'm not necessarily saying that it's not an appropriate response to inflation, but you have to get the inflation under control before you throw more gas on the fire.
The price of labour increasing is a symptom of inflation, as much a cause of it. The creation of money is the foremost cause of inflation, not the circulation of money. The circulation of money is the purpose of money; higher wages is simply a way to transfer wealth from job destroyers and low-productivity workers to job creators and high-productivity workers. It will not affect the creation of money, but it will grow the economy and improve living standards for all those suffering a real decline in their ability to purchase vital resources like living space, nutrition, clothing & transport. Much hubub is put on how rising wages would make rising services and manufacturing costs, thus forcing businesses to raise prices and drive inflation up. So individuals are asked to take a real wealth cut and a real drop in security and living standards - and yet inflation still continues. This is because all of America's news media are owned by 4 companies, none of which want to discuss the role that profits have in the deleterious wealth transfer from poor to ludicrous elite. E.g. it's unfair to expect Amazon or McDonalds to pay more of the record profits they make to the workers who made those profits, but Jamal and Cletus need to really tighten their belts so shareholders can get better returns on Jamal's shift
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 05, 2022, 08:28:59 pm
Wouldn't the way to fight inflation be to incentivize saving, incentivize long-term investments, increase taxes, anything to tie up people's money and remove it from the economy?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on October 05, 2022, 08:49:00 pm
Wouldn't the way to fight inflation be to incentivize saving, incentivize long-term investments, increase taxes, anything to tie up people's money and remove it from the economy?

Kinda?  Velocity, how often money changes hands, is the other half of the money value equation after the money supply.

Problem is we've already been irresponsible with interest rates as-is, politicians want it low to make the economy look better than it is over their terms.  Even without quant. easing policy we were teetering on recession over/post the quarantine.  We're typically expected to ease during boom times.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on October 06, 2022, 01:33:38 am
Increasing minimum wage IS inflation. Anyone that can't concede that point is an idiot.

Now, I'm not necessarily saying that it's not an appropriate response to inflation, but you have to get the inflation under control before you throw more gas on the fire.
The price of labour increasing is a symptom of inflation, as much a cause of it. The creation of money is the foremost cause of inflation, not the circulation of money. The circulation of money is the purpose of money; higher wages is simply a way to transfer wealth from job destroyers and low-productivity workers to job creators and high-productivity workers. It will not affect the creation of money, but it will grow the economy and improve living standards for all those suffering a real decline in their ability to purchase vital resources like living space, nutrition, clothing & transport. Much hubub is put on how rising wages would make rising services and manufacturing costs, thus forcing businesses to raise prices and drive inflation up. So individuals are asked to take a real wealth cut and a real drop in security and living standards - and yet inflation still continues. This is because all of America's news media are owned by 4 companies, none of which want to discuss the role that profits have in the deleterious wealth transfer from poor to ludicrous elite. E.g. it's unfair to expect Amazon or McDonalds to pay more of the record profits they make to the workers who made those profits, but Jamal and Cletus need to really tighten their belts so shareholders can get better returns on Jamal's shift

In addition, while the following is a vast oversimplification, there are luxury goods, and basic goods that everyone requires. It can be assumed that the basic goods will remain affordable outside of some sort of disaster or disruption, due to competition and a government interest in stability leading to intervention, though pricing methods could possibly skew that at some point in the production and transport chain (not only retail) especially as one of the more commonly ways inflation is calculated is by essentially measuring changes in retail price that does not seek to determine reasons for the retail price being such as it is, and if I may put on my insane conspiracist hat could be used (due to the limited mechanics of measuring) for political reasons in theory for at least short periods if there is consolidation in production/transport/retail, but I digress greatly on something effectively intangible for me to determine at my current power level in economics as well as it generally being unlikely with all the far more reasonable explanations for a price change. For a simple example using my preferred amateur gauge of a 2 liter of generic knockoff carbonated drink, the things cost more in wealthier areas vs the cost in a significantly less wealthy neighborhood nearby. Whether this is due to the natural desire to increase profit when possible or for other reasons effecting the disparate pricing I'll never know I think. Housing is a different beast and I don't mean to include that as there are so many distortions that frequently happen in that market, and it's also difficult to compare such a good that can radically differ in it's composition for this purpose of sidetracking into complaining about pricing rather than using a stable comparison of the same type (cola) and size/quantity of local brand 2liter drink.

If a large portion of money supply remains in the accounts and investments of fewer fortunates, this may actually stimulate the luxury market (investment on large scale or "living off the interest" could arguably be included here but usually it's described as things like the Yacht industry) while depressing prices on basic goods due to a lack of money supply in the broader consumer base of these industries. However there are also intermediate or semi- luxuries as I learned in a Robert Reich documentary I watched many years ago that featured the now infamous Pillow Guy (my reason for dismay when I learned how far off the cliff that man has gone) where he explained that a pillow is a semi-luxury in that a person may be able to use the same pillow for twenty years if necessary, but will replace it much more frequently if wealth allows it while it still being in demand in some form whether cheap or luxurious to pretty much everyone. This means that increasing wages in an economy actually sells more pillows and is better for the semi-luxuries industry in contrast to the luxury industries, while an increase in basic goods pricing can be absorbed better by having higher wages (though pricing schemes will do their best to disrupt that and keep consumer prices high without being unbearable as it is an art to find the balance point on profitability regarding prices and volume of sales). A semi-luxury in this theory goes up in price as fewer will be sold at high income disparities and less workers employed to make them, less production capital to mass produce them driving up the cost per individual item which on an economy wide scale has a theoretical effect of further impacting the production numbers and employment, while raising the cost of these type of items, so that between the broader effect on employment and higher costs, more people are using pillows they would have discarded or replaced.

I likely screwd up the terminology as I didn't do some refresher reading to recall the correct terms but I hope it is clearly expressed regardless. Also, I'm not an expert, so there may be many flaws that I'm not aware of in the theory, being a humble dabbler in economics, especially with an aged documentary being my main example.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on October 06, 2022, 04:05:41 pm
Much of the economy is a "who blinks first" situation, tied in with human emotions and drives.

Consider also that at its core, an economy isn't money at all - it's goods and services and money is just a tool that at its best facilitates balancing production of goods and services with desire for goods and services.  At its worst, money creates massive imbalance.

The curious thing about those with capital reserves holding it tight (and so causing a recession) is - what are they afraid of losing?  If they could spend $1M today to keep 20 people employed for a year making widgets, are they really better off if they fire them instead and just sit on the $1M?  The calculus must be "I think if I spend that $1M this year, I may not actually be able to sell anything at all and so will lose money, but if I hold that $1M, I'll at least have $1M at the end of the year."

But if too many people do this - then there won't be anything left to buy; in the reductio ad absurdum they would have their $1M but there would be zero goods and services.

Ultimately this is an odd artifact of extreme specialization: at least in medieval times, the owner-class had, at the end of a year, food and clothing and basic resources.  Today, most owner-classes don't actually produce necessities, so they'd rather just sit on their cash reserves and buy the excess produce from those that do make basic resources.

Is the problem bankruptcy law? Is it over-specialization? Is it the lack of a buyer of last resort, always providing incentive to keep production up of some products when there is little demand - or to ensure there is a reasonable reserve if there is a supply disruption such as with war or pandemic?

That is - we have a strategic petroleum reserve, should we have strategic housing reserve? Strategic automobile reserve? Strategic food reserves? Strategic clothing reserves?

(Sorry, this was kind of a random collection of topics...)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on October 24, 2022, 08:24:13 am
It's been a while, so new post:

I was reading an article yesterday about how the average monthly income in some countries is the equivalent of like $250 (US).

My understanding is this is done not on a purchasing-power-parity comparison but just on a nominal conversion rate comparison.

My musings are thus: If it's possible to live (albeit with a low standard of living) on $250 a month - which it must be possible to "survive" on that - basic food and stuff at least - then what bizarre systems are in place which prevent price equality?  I mean, I'm pretty frugal with my budget, and it costs my family of four roughly $800 a month for groceries ($50/person-week).

In these countries with $250 monthly income, how much does it cost for monthly groceries?

What's preventing resourceful "rich" folks from going in, buying that really cheap food for even half what it costs me locally, both giving those low-income places more revenue and getting me my food for less?  That is - why is there not massive arbitrage here?  Is it purely trade restrictions?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on October 24, 2022, 12:02:27 pm
It's been a while, so new post:

I was reading an article yesterday about how the average monthly income in some countries is the equivalent of like $250 (US).

My understanding is this is done not on a purchasing-power-parity comparison but just on a nominal conversion rate comparison.

My musings are thus: If it's possible to live (albeit with a low standard of living) on $250 a month - which it must be possible to "survive" on that - basic food and stuff at least - then what bizarre systems are in place which prevent price equality?  I mean, I'm pretty frugal with my budget, and it costs my family of four roughly $800 a month for groceries ($50/person-week).

In these countries with $250 monthly income, how much does it cost for monthly groceries?

What's preventing resourceful "rich" folks from going in, buying that really cheap food for even half what it costs me locally, both giving those low-income places more revenue and getting me my food for less?  That is - why is there not massive arbitrage here?  Is it purely trade restrictions?

You're probably fond of heat, air-conditioning, electricity, and indoor plumbing. You also probably don't spend half the day every weekend transporting your water for the week.

I saw something on the Discovery channel about folks in the US trying to live in the woods. They don't have huge expenses, but they spend quite a lot of time doing stuff we take for granted.

Remember also that many of those countries live along the equator. They don't have to heat their homes with much more than a stove, as their winters are warm and short.

As to your actual question: You CAN grow food yourself, and it SHOULD reduce your grocery bill. Of course, foods that grow easily might not be to your liking.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 24, 2022, 04:45:48 pm
In these countries with $250 monthly income, how much does it cost for monthly groceries?

What's preventing resourceful "rich" folks from going in, buying that really cheap food for even half what it costs me locally, both giving those low-income places more revenue and getting me my food for less?  That is - why is there not massive arbitrage here?  Is it purely trade restrictions?
Transport usually kicks things up a notch. Otherwise you can totally do stuff like that. E.g. rich people flying to another country to buy tailor-made clothes at prices cheaper than generic store one size fits all clothes. Of course it also makes more economic sense for rich people to fly to a cheaper country to get their goods because they also receive a lot of free flights from their credit and air club schemes. Another similar version is old pensioners moving from the west to live in hotels abroad. And to some extent you can get away with arbitrage, and you see it a lot even between countries that have no trade deals at all and so face full tariffs. I guess the main competition is that if you try to get away with something like selling cheap imported food... You'll probably already be competing with a globomartcorpTM who has the same idea
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on October 24, 2022, 05:16:15 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
The three problems are lawyers, guns, and money.

If you want to buy cocoa from Ghana and pay the farmers twice as much, you are going to be confronted by the existing "market makers", which includes the merchants in Ghana who are forcing the farmers to sell for as little as possible, and the merchants in your country, who sell the chocolate for as much as possible. These two groups are making good money, each by exploiting the people within their own country. Each of these groups will use lawyers, guns, and money within their country to stop you from interfering with their profit margins. You might only experience the "guns" in the form of piracy and theft, but some of the farmers who supported you may get killed.

Look at all those nations that produce specialty organics (cocoa, bananas, tea, coffee, so many spices, and cane sugar). The guys who rule those countries keep the farmers impoverished, because they like the profit gained by selling internationally. This is economic slavery. All of these countries sell to countries that give their own workers more rights, education, wealth, and freedom.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on October 24, 2022, 06:36:50 pm
So that basically confirms what I thought - "trade restrictions" was my shorthand for "the people with guns preventing free trade from happening."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 25, 2022, 06:56:20 am
So that basically confirms what I thought - "trade restrictions" was my shorthand for "the people with guns preventing free trade from happening."
Reminds me of one of my old Russian-Ukrainian schoolmates who used to fly to Ukraine to buy tobacco to resell in the UK. It's the kind of stuff you can get away with when you're arbitraging 60 packets of cigarettes but when you start getting higher the people whose profits you're hurting notice it and put an end to it
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on October 25, 2022, 09:12:03 am
Funnily enough, my dad and his friends got pulled over on suspicion of that despite the fact they weren't doing it.

They'd gone off to France to buy a load of cheap goods with the intention of gifting and personal use. Problem was, it was the 90s, there were three of them, and they had a white van. They couldn't have made it look more suspicious if they tried.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 25, 2022, 02:29:21 pm
Funnily enough, my dad and his friends got pulled over on suspicion of that despite the fact they weren't doing it.

They'd gone off to France to buy a load of cheap goods with the intention of gifting and personal use. Problem was, it was the 90s, there were three of them, and they had a white van. They couldn't have made it look more suspicious if they tried.
Fake moustaches and funny nose clipped on?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 17, 2023, 04:48:11 pm
Anyone have any references to good academic material on the phenomenon of why businesses over-hire and then lay off workers?

I can understand how companies that have a fairly tight relationship between demand and workers required to meet that demand can get into this situation. So I'm not talking about "wow demand for our product dropped 30%, we don't need as many people making widgets."

What I can't understand is why companies that don't scale output proportionally to demand would over-hire so many people that they could afford to then lay off thousands of people - what are those thousands of people doing in the first place, if there wasn't a return on that investment?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 17, 2023, 06:00:43 pm
Austrian business cycle theory.

Look on mises.org for "business cycle". If you have the chops for it, by all means, Rothbard's Man Economy and State and Power and Market. The problem with that is that it does assume a pretty good understanding of Austrian economics. If you get started and don't quite follow the jargon, there are lots of very approachable writers on the subject. Robert P. Murphy has a book written for more or less high school AP level, (I forget the name, but if you look it up, his short pamphlet Chaos Theory is interesting, too), Tom Woods has stuff for the educated layman, Dilorenzo, Salerno and Garrison are good for smart people who had a major other than economics, Klein, Sennholz, Reisman, Gordon and Hulsmann will likely have you reading the same sentence  repeatedly, having packed too much into one sentence for most readers. That's off the top of my head. The site has an impressive collection of material from some fantastic authors.

BTW, most or maybe all the books I'm thinking of are available for free download there.

[EDIT]
The short answer is that because of the way money enters the economy, there is no way to tell whether any given increase in quantity demanded is a real increase in demand or because of the influx of money. If it is not an increase in real demand (from savings or even an arbitrary fraction of cash flow, not from credit), it is not sustainable and results in mal-investments -- hiring too many employees, building new facilities, etc., which there is not a real demand to support.
[/EDIT]
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on January 17, 2023, 06:37:45 pm
It might be a form of employee screening.  If you hire several teams, then fire the underperforming teams, you are better insulated from discrimination lawsuits than if you fire singular underperforming employees.  Also: Most managers are idiots.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 17, 2023, 07:05:01 pm
Thanks -  it's been a while since I've poked around mises.

I have to say though I was hoping for something alternative to "it's the business cycle" - I mean I guess I understand the business cycle theory, but it doesn't feel right; in the sense that "if you have to make a change of 1-2% here or there, sure. But 10-20% changes (basically anything active, instead of just not backfilling attrition) "overnight" makes me think EJ's assessment is more accurate: people collectively are idiots, no matter how smart any subgroup might be.

Basically - if "everyone" knows the business cycle is broken, why don't "we" fix it? Is it because people really do like the "excitement" of an unstable system, over a nice (theoretically) continually improving one, that doesn't have systemic downturns? One where you have reasonable savings margins and buffers against chaotic events like weather and disease?

Or is it really just that even if you have populations trying for stability, that social structures (explicit like laws, or implicit like culture) cause it to revert to unstable boom-bust cycling?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on January 17, 2023, 07:38:50 pm
I have to say though I was hoping for something alternative to "it's the business cycle" - I mean I guess I understand the business cycle theory, but it doesn't feel right; in the sense that "if you have to make a change of 1-2% here or there, sure. But 10-20% changes (basically anything active, instead of just not backfilling attrition) "overnight" makes me think EJ's assessment is more accurate: people collectively are idiots, no matter how smart any subgroup might be.
You have to understand, businesses can motor on quite happily accumulating inefficiencies at, say,  a modest 2% a year for five years before the lean times come and the fat has to be trimmed. Nobody tells you that a division is underperforming until it starts to take in less than it spends; you don't get to see the amount of money you could've been making.

Quote
Basically - if "everyone" knows the business cycle is broken, why don't "we" fix it? Is it because people really do like the "excitement" of an unstable system, over a nice (theoretically) continually improving one, that doesn't have systemic downturns? One where you have reasonable savings margins and buffers against chaotic events like weather and disease?

Or is it really just that even if you have populations trying for stability, that social structures (explicit like laws, or implicit like culture) cause it to revert to unstable boom-bust cycling?
Worse, it's innate in the mathematics and in human psychology. There is no possibility of stability. To understand this, you need to really drill down into what that would mean - like that "reasonable savings margins and buffers against chaotic events like weather and disease" means that, when the weather turns out to be fine and you're not diseased, you have capital lying on the ground being wasted, you produce less than you could have, and somewhere on the margin people starve to death who could've been fed.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 17, 2023, 08:23:06 pm
To understand this, you need to really drill down into what that would mean - like that "reasonable savings margins and buffers against chaotic events like weather and disease" means that, when the weather turns out to be fine and you're not diseased, you have capital lying on the ground being wasted, you produce less than you could have, and somewhere on the margin people starve to death who could've been fed.

I don't think I understand this - why would capital be wasted here? By "stability" I mean you do is "bank" your excess produce, so when you have a production interruption you can draw down your stores instead of having nothing.  The old "let's build grain silos and store up our extra produce during good years, and then live like kings when there's a famine" strategy.

Instead of "hey we only have demand for X this year, so let's only produce X even though we have capacity to produce X+Y, and oh crap next year something happened and demand is still X but we can only produce X-Z."  Sure I guess if you're the producer you can get more money in the short year, but you can't get more product which is what people really want.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on January 17, 2023, 09:18:19 pm
I don't think I understand this - why would capital be wasted here? By "stability" I mean you do is "bank" your excess produce, so when you have a production interruption you can draw down your stores instead of having nothing.  The old "let's build grain silos and store up our extra produce during good years, and then live like kings when there's a famine" strategy.
The wasted capital in this case is the land, labor, seed, water, etc. that goes to growing the excess produce that you store up in the grain silo instead of any other possible use that might help people today.

In the case of actual literal grain, we can't always help this, since most of that capital has to be committed well ahead of time, though we absolutely try our best. In the case of more modern products, it's almost always possible to turn the capital to more immediately useful uses, practically on a dime.

A great example happened in the United States in 2020, where many manufacturers changed their production lines in a matter of days to churn out new ventilators on the assumption that there would be ventilator shortages, only for it to turn out that ventilators made most patients worse and usage never came close to predictions... even while manufacturers were still under government contracts to keep making them. I had a pretty close secondhand insight into this at a major automobile manufacturer at the time. While it might seem like a good thing to have a stockpile of ventilators, the losses to the economy in terms of the labor and machinery time were enormous.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on January 17, 2023, 09:33:39 pm
You're both also forgetting that Rich People can profit from cyclical economic times. And Rich People control a lot.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on January 17, 2023, 09:48:40 pm
You're both also forgetting that Rich People can profit from cyclical economic times. And Rich People control a lot.
This is pretty naive.
On the one hand, I can profit (have profited) from cyclical economic times, and so can you.
On the other hand, rich people can profit a lot more from "up graph goes up", and have more incentive than even the rest of us to want to maintain it (since they have more pieces of paper to increase in value). Which is why, eg, the fed keeps trying so hard to maintain it.
On the gripping hand, there are a lot of rich people whose interests are by no means all aligned, and the economic cycles are just not that easy to control.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on January 17, 2023, 10:02:25 pm
I still suspect that Presidents can and do control minor fluctuations in the market, and they profit themselves and their supporters. Both Trump and Biden had a little shit son acting as their liaison in these things.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 18, 2023, 10:27:24 am
I think "control" is overstating it - "influence" is more accurate.

Regarding @MaximumSpin - I think this depends on definition of "waste".  After all, sure if you have a few extra things in your pantry, that's not waste. But if you keep doubling your supply of bandaids every year, that's probably waste.

That's a good observation about the differences in ability to change output of production for different types of capital.  How if you have a sewing machine you can change it quickly from producing T-shirts to masks quite quickly but if you have a field full of corn you can't switch to integrated circuit production in a few weeks.

EDIT whoops, that * was to a big deleted thing during a draft...

Spoiler: regarding * (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 18, 2023, 03:05:36 pm
And don't under-appreciate opportunity costs.

There is a cost to having production build up, and not simply in terms of the materials and labor that went into the production. It's what you could have done with those resources had you not opted to convert them to finished goods and store them in a warehouse. Inventory does not make you any money. Inventory churn does. The consumer might prefer larger inventories, sure, but he has a demonstrated aversion to paying for it, choosing to buy from the JIT supplier who did not have as much overhead in inventory.

Downside of JIT is, of course, it is phenomenally sensitive to supply shocks. And that's what we got from the response to COVID. As indirect (roundabout) as production chains have become, there is a tendency for at least some of these disruptions to have positive feedback loops.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on January 18, 2023, 04:26:50 pm
After all, sure if you have a few extra things in your pantry, that's not waste.
Of course it is. Hasn't your mother ever told you, "clean your plate, there are starving children in Africa"? It's a very minor example of waste in the long run, but it is deadweight, resources just sitting around when they could be helping someone now.

Look at it like this: if the family next door sells off everything in their pantry at the end of the day, while you let it sit, that family (which presumably eats as much as yours in the long run) will outcompete yours in the market whenever there isn't a supply shock, which is most of the time.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on January 18, 2023, 11:59:00 pm
A few months after the WHO declared the covid pandemic, this site's chart (https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/MSFT/microsoft/number-of-employees) shows Microsoft SEC filings said 180k employees and a year later they said 220k employees, so they gained 40k employees when the pandemic forced many people online and businesses/organizations bought service contracts from Microsoft.

So, Microsoft is laying off 10k employees. I'd say it is not because the workload decreased but because the workers got better at the job so fewer were needed (so then it became employee screening like EuchreJack posted).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 19, 2023, 08:54:41 am
Look at it like this: if the family next door sells off everything in their pantry at the end of the day, while you let it sit, that family (which presumably eats as much as yours in the long run) will outcompete yours in the market whenever there isn't a supply shock, which is most of the time.
Does that account for the non-negligible cost of more frequent trips to the market?

Some of us don't consider "maximum dollar gain" to be the end goal, some of us like "stability" or "lack of stress."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 19, 2023, 11:27:56 am
Oh, Microsoft was the company we were talking about? I cashed out of them at around 300, a couple weeks before the peak, because it became clear this chips supply issue was not going to resolve itself anytime soon, and it's hard to sell an OS if there aren't many new computers. I don't think that's going to get much better anytime soon. I expect a whole lot more downsizing, too. I think there's still some life in livestream hardware, though the easy money has already been snagged, and, of course, defense contractors are going to be strong.

McTraveller, subjective value is one of the Austrian insights that doesn't map well into NeoKeynesian or pretty much any other typical mainstream school. I, too, place a high value on a well-stocked larder. My wife used to give me a hard time about it until early in the COVID panic buying, and she went to the store for something or other, and the shelves were pretty much cleared.

I'm not really dissing other economic schools -- other than at the margin, there's not a whole lot of difference. ;) It's more that most other schools don't seem to know what to do if you can't assign a number to something. The feeling of security you get from having a full pantry isn't something you can measure, so you can't take the derivatives and find a local maxima
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on January 19, 2023, 01:05:36 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 19, 2023, 01:55:41 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on January 19, 2023, 09:06:23 pm
Does that account for the non-negligible cost of more frequent trips to the market?
Yes, because it's, you know, an analogy.

Quote
Some of us don't consider "maximum dollar gain" to be the end goal, some of us like "stability" or "lack of stress."
Sure, and I think that's true of most people, but it is an objective fact that those who do care about maximum dollar gain will get more money than you, which, in a business context, means you get bought out or shareholders revolt. I feel like we're having two fundamentally different conversations here; I'm trying to answer you as to "why they do that" while you're telling me that you wouldn't. Okay, neither would I, but you're not running a JIT company!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 20, 2023, 10:55:17 am
My question wasn't "why do they do that?" - my question was "could we get better results if we did something different?"

It sounds like the key to that question is a definition of "better" - is it maximizing localized profit (e.g., for a single company?), is it maximizing generalized profit (e.g., across many companies, or even across many sectors of the economy), is it minimizing disruption?

That is - the claims that "the economy isn't zero sum" miss the fact that parts of the economy are indeed zero sum or even worse.  The reason we have consumer protection laws is evidence of this: a company maximizing its local profit will often do so at the expense of "social good." Consider the stuff in the news about indirect collusion of rent prices, or cries of price gouging on anything, etc.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on January 20, 2023, 12:03:56 pm
The beauty of Capitalism is that every business owner can run their business in whatever crappy shitty way they want.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 20, 2023, 12:04:54 pm
It sounds like the key to that question is a definition of "better"
This. Everyone has different ideas about what a "well-stocked pantry" means, from nothing at all and panicked clearing of every loaf of bread from the store every time they predict a snowstorm to a 20+ year food supply. Same with the tradeoff between job security and amount of income. Just as "we" can't do better by mandating everyone keep exactly 1 week food on hand, as that is optimized only for those who preferred 1 week, "we" can't improve on pretty much any other set of tradeoffs, other than respecting others' choice of a different preference. And, of course, the consequences of that choice.


That is - the claims that "the economy isn't zero sum" miss the fact that parts of the economy are indeed zero sum or even worse.  The reason we have consumer protection laws is evidence of this: a company maximizing its local profit will often do so at the expense of "social good." Consider the stuff in the news about indirect collusion of rent prices, or cries of price gouging on anything, etc.
Apart from contrived scenarios, things like this should not happen. Not having extra batteries on hand when there's a hurricane heading one's way was a decision he made to not buy spares in the weeks and years ahead of the actual event, and he just desires to externalize the costs of that decision onto others. Gouging is a good thing. It incentivizes people to have on hand the stuff they will need so they are not driving around as the storm approaches, hoovering up everything in sight. It incentivizes people from outside the area to load trucks with goods that they can get better prices on. Ideally, this never happens because everyone already has a few cases of water, a week's worth of food, basic medical needs, etc. on hand, so there are not local shortages in the first place.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 20, 2023, 01:09:11 pm
I have never before imagined I would live to see the words "gouging is a good thing" written
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 20, 2023, 01:21:36 pm
I have never before imagined I would live to see the words "gouging is a good thing" written
I know. Sad, isn't it, that we've basically all been indoctrinated to the point we can't think things like this through?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 20, 2023, 02:40:46 pm
I know. Sad, isn't it, that we've basically all been indoctrinated to the point we can't think things like this through?
It's a good thing we have armed robbers, as they incentivise people to wear body armour. It's just a shame people are so indoctrinated to the point where they can't see the good in being shot at by armed robbers
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 20, 2023, 03:26:53 pm
Hardly applicable. It is easy to say men should not harm other men, and to punish those who won't follow the rules. It's another entirely to try to tell Mother Nature to stop harming people and punish her if she won't listen.

It is hardly unforeseeable that there would be circumstances where you would want spare batteries or extra aspirin or a case of water. Heck, some countries got darned close to that with their COVID lockdowns. The time to lay in a month's supplies is before you get welded into your apartments for a 14 day quarantine.

Thing is, you cannot compare real life to some imaginary perfect world. In the real world, things like food and water and batteries run out. If the store does not get more in, eventually their inventory runs out. So the question is not whether you get bottled water at the pre-crisis price or at the "gouging" price. It's whether you get there early enough that it's still in stock or that you are too late and must do without entirely. And because there is no "gouging", there is no point in buying up supplies and taking them to sell to those who need them. Might as well not spend all the resources trucking them halfway across the country if you have to sell at a loss.

Have fun dying of thirst or making do at half or less of your normal insulin dose.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 20, 2023, 07:09:35 pm
Gouging demonstrably does not (adequately?) incentivize "personal reserves"; in fact sometimes there are prohibitions for personal reserves; consider that it's generally illegal to stockpile gasoline for example (5-gallon lawn equipment cans aren't enough to absorb a shock).  And yes while we have strategic oil reserves (for example) that doesn't actually get product to where it's needed fast enough to prevent "gouging."

Couple that with the fact that producers of "gougable" goods also have incentives against producing enough to even support stockpiling in the first place, and in fact have incentives to artificially create shortages to drive up prices.

I point to the recent behavior of the automotive markets for an example: sure there are some supply shortages, but I think that OEMs have seen that they don't have to guess at production any more, and can simply just say "we're only offering 200k orders for this vehicle, sign up!" and they'll sell every single one and result in the high markup.  Don't be fooled by the news that the average new car buyer is "only paying MSRP" again - because MSRP is up some substantial percentage compared to a few years ago, far in excess of inflation.

Same type of thing with housing: because housing is not something that you can just go and build to increase competition due to zoning and other regulations, and you can't really "stockpile" a house...

Probably also the same thing with health insurance: you can't "stockpile" a service.

The list is much longer, but I'm tired.

Also: people don't starve because there is no food, and they don't dehydrate because there is no water; they starve and can't drink because people want more money to get it to where it's needed and there are often regulatory barriers in place preventing people from getting it for a more locally affordable price. As in "no you aren't even allowed to travel over there and buy it and import it, without paying these bribes license fees."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 20, 2023, 07:34:51 pm
So you are saying government as it exists, if not as designed, creates disincentives to live prudently. OK, I agree. Now what?

Like they say, you are free to choose, but you are not free from the consequences of those choices.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on January 20, 2023, 11:41:27 pm
Once upon a time, a single person managed to accumulate a little bit more than everyone else. Of course, they were outnumbered by their peers, who could take that surplus with their numbers.
And thus, the first Rich Man invented Government to keep his riches.

It's a misnomer perpetrated by the Establishment that Government helps the poor and hurts the rich, when it's actually always the opposite. The Poor have numbers and a lack of connection/responsibility to the Establishment. It's ultimately the Government that keeps them from just taking what they want.

The Establishment has a love/hate relationship with Middle Class. On one hand, they never want to share their wealth with the Middle Class, and they profit from the Middle Class. On the other hand, they need the assistance of the Middle Class to control the Poor.

Ultimately, one doesn't aspire to overthrow the System, since it's as old as civilization. One simply aspires to join the Rich.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 22, 2023, 07:37:35 am
Hardly applicable. It is easy to say men should not harm other men, and to punish those who won't follow the rules. It's another entirely to try to tell Mother Nature to stop harming people and punish her if she won't listen.

It is hardly unforeseeable that there would be circumstances where you would want spare batteries or extra aspirin or a case of water. Heck, some countries got darned close to that with their COVID lockdowns. The time to lay in a month's supplies is before you get welded into your apartments for a 14 day quarantine.
Perfectly applicable; you are saying that someone taking advantage of a catastrophe to price gouge people out of essential supplies is a good thing. This is an argument which is so basically wrong it falls apart at the first glance. A price gouger no more incentivises people to stock up on essentials than an armed robber incentivises people to stock up on defences. Because if you live in an area that is prone to natural disasters, the natural disasters themselves incentivise people to be prepared. Someone taking advantage of panic and ill-prepared persons is not providing some moral good, they are a robber and scum of the highest degree. Especially since not everyone has the storage space or resources to have weeks of supplies in the event of a catastrophe, as the majority of the human race is just living paycheck to paycheck.

Have fun dying of thirst or making do at half or less of your normal insulin dose.
Lmao is this an American thing? You talk about the real world and the imaginary world as if it's controversial to help your fellow man with the resources your nation has in abundance. It's not some hypothetical to punish price gougers and deliver emergency relief to people in crisis... This has been business as usual for thousands of years of human history. I don't have to worry about dying of thirst, I don't have to worry about insulin dose rations, my healthcare is free and my country maintains supply lines in times of crisis instead of allowing a small number of price gougers to hoard vital supplies. This mindset of "Lol pay up little piggy or die" just displays a total absence of basic empathy. I would give a beast a sip of water if I saw it dying of thirst, the idea of looking forward to punishing swathes of humanity for not being able to prepare for a supply crisis that is entirely manufactured by price gougers is - like I say - the mentality of an armed robber who chides his victims for not having sufficient defences against their predations.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 23, 2023, 10:46:56 am
Once upon a time, a single person managed to accumulate a little bit more than everyone else. Of course, they were outnumbered by their peers, who could take that surplus with their numbers.
And thus, the first Rich Man invented Government to keep his riches.
Probably not how it came about. Why would anyone obey someone's dictates just because he had two bushels of apples when you only had one? Would YOU?

More than likely, the story starts with a bully who takes others' lunch money. The smarter of these bullies hires his friends to sit around his lodge and drink his ill-gotten booze and eat his ill-gotten feasts, and occasionally shake down people for their lunch money. The more sadistic of these brutes takes a shine to making the people do humiliating things in addition to forking over lunch money, and the modern state is born.

The Establishment has a love/hate relationship with Middle Class. On one hand, they never want to share their wealth with the Middle Class, and they profit from the Middle Class. On the other hand, they need the assistance of the Middle Class to control the Poor.
This has rarely been true. Particularly in American politics, ever since general (white adult male) sufferage the winning tactic has always been for the rich and poor to team up against the middle.

Don't fall for the leftist nonsense about no one's taxes are going up if you make less than $400k. They publish the tax rates. You can look them up.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 23, 2023, 11:27:10 am
...you are saying that someone taking advantage of a catastrophe to price gouge people out of essential supplies is a good thing.
I'm actually saying its better than the alternative.

Imagine a city which is prone to disasters, but where inexplicably, people continue to live. You are likely familiar with the story of the Ant and the Grasshopper. This city's denizens choose the ant's tactic. They commit themselves to having one shelf of their kitchen that always has food and a couple cans of Sterno, and a couple cases of water in the hall closet. When disaster strikes, they clean up their yard trash, haul it to the curb, and then, if they are not part of the general reconstruction (roads, power, etc.) they go back to their homes and read a book or play a board game or something. Point is they are staying off the roads, not interfering with the people who need the roads to haul away all the yard trash and rebuild the roads and reconnect the power. A couple days later, the city is back to 80%.

Now imagine they choose the grasshopper strategy. The storm no more than passes and all the grasshopper putzes are out clogging the roads trying to get a latte. The power crews are unable to get through, and instead of focusing on getting infrastructure going again, the disaster response has to be hauling food and water and other supplies in, while trying to get through all the cars that ran out of gas trying to find a store that still had water. Instead of being more or less back in business 48 hours later, this strategy is still limping along 2 weeks later.

So the question is how do you get the population to choose the ant strategy, which is self-evidently superior in terms of minimizing human suffering?

It's not so much that gouging is objectively good in itself, but rather that it puts in place the right incentives. Sure you ignored the speed limit sign, and you can't do anything about what has already happened, so maybe a fine will make you slow down next time. Whereas if the policy is just to ignore all the yutzes doing 90 in a school zone, that behavior is likely to continue. A fine works exactly the same way gouging does. Indeed, it's a little odd to think that "gougers" should be fined, as it is an implicit acceptance of the idea that incentives matter.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on January 23, 2023, 01:53:54 pm
@Thorfinn
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on January 24, 2023, 03:55:04 am
May we assume the ants would want to trade for that which they do not produce themselves? It seems the grasshopper in the story would have been better served by working to control these trade lanes rather than sitting idle. After that control is established, perhaps the Ant's own merchants would by necessity work with the grasshopper. This way the grasshopper can continue as he pleased. When the Queen's drones point the myrmidons in his direction, the ant's own merchants would protest, as this would disrupt their supply. Perhaps the grasshopper gains great wealth, and purchases a growing portion of the existing and expansions to the volumunous ant tunnels, If this were to occur, perhaps the grasshopper would not want further excavation that does not benefit them, and some ants must live outside. Are the other ants to begin to call them Grasshopper?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: scriver on January 24, 2023, 04:50:36 am
We are not ants and grasshoppers.

We are ants and ants who did not have room to stock up in their own homes.

We are ants and ants who had their homes crushed under falling trees and all their stocks carried of by the flood.

We are ants and ants who are too old or sick to care for themselves.

The ants who need goods after disaster are not grasshoppers. But the people who would gouge prices are wasps and ticks.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 24, 2023, 10:32:16 am
Imagine a city which is prone to disasters, but where inexplicably, people continue to live. You are likely familiar with the story of the Ant and the Grasshopper. This city's denizens choose the ant's tactic. They commit themselves to having one shelf of their kitchen that always has food and a couple cans of Sterno, and a couple cases of water in the hall closet. When disaster strikes, they clean up their yard trash, haul it to the curb, and then, if they are not part of the general reconstruction (roads, power, etc.) they go back to their homes and read a book or play a board game or something. Point is they are staying off the roads, not interfering with the people who need the roads to haul away all the yard trash and rebuild the roads and reconnect the power. A couple days later, the city is back to 80%.

Now imagine they choose the grasshopper strategy. The storm no more than passes and all the grasshopper putzes are out clogging the roads trying to get a latte. The power crews are unable to get through, and instead of focusing on getting infrastructure going again, the disaster response has to be hauling food and water and other supplies in, while trying to get through all the cars that ran out of gas trying to find a store that still had water. Instead of being more or less back in business 48 hours later, this strategy is still limping along 2 weeks later.
I love that story. (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=180346.msg8414243#msg8414243) Yet you're still continually failing to justify your argument by forming a baseless link between being pro-preparedness and pro-price gouging.

So the question is how do you get the population to choose the ant strategy, which is self-evidently superior in terms of minimizing human suffering?

It's not so much that gouging is objectively good in itself, but rather that it puts in place the right incentives. Sure you ignored the speed limit sign, and you can't do anything about what has already happened, so maybe a fine will make you slow down next time. Whereas if the policy is just to ignore all the yutzes doing 90 in a school zone, that behavior is likely to continue. A fine works exactly the same way gouging does. Indeed, it's a little odd to think that "gougers" should be fined, as it is an implicit acceptance of the idea that incentives matter.
There's actually two arguments which need to be addressed here. The first and most obvious is not all actors in an economy have equal market power, information, time, resources and energy. Take a good look at how the majority of the world lives in tropical areas prone to annual extreme weather events, and how with a few exceptions (e.g. Singapore), most of these countries from Latin America to East Asia and everyone in between tend to have incredibly low median incomes relative to developed nations. A brick maker or factory worker in Bangladesh will likely have a good deal of experience with regular seasonal flooding from monsoon rains or memories of tsunamis. And yet, why do they not have weeks of bottled water, food & medicine stocked up?

Access to refrigeration, storage space, the ability to procure such items in sufficient quantity at a price within their means e.t.c. all contribute to this. Even in developed countries, even when there are no times of crisis, you can see this effect on everyday spending. It is trivial for wealthier individuals to purchase bulk items & transport them, whereas items which are sold in smaller units all cost higher per gram or per litre. As a result it is cheaper for wealthier shoppers to buy higher quality ingredients in bulk than it is for poorer persons to buy lower quality ingredients in smaller units. This disparity grows when you consider how many more facilities for storage and cooking are available for wealthier persons than their poorer counterparts. Poverty is self-reinforcing. If you have more market power you can reject bad deals; for poorer persons, they have to take what they can get. This is where price gouging becomes especially evil, in that you severely reward those who have more market power and completely fuck over those without it.
When you have a society which allows price gouging, you do not create a society which values preparedness. Disasters have an inherent ability to motivate preparedness; everyone I know has grandparents who lived through the event, be it the second world war or some great famine, and I can attest that my own grandparents have stocks for months of essentials after their experience with the Malayan occupation. There was an amusing UK study revealing too, how adults who were children during the 2008 had the tendency of taking no loans, saving aggressively and focusing on financial stability instead of personal fulfillment in careers. You don't need to add a layer of parasites who make fortunes off of misery to incentivise people into preparing for what is already a life-ruining calamity.

Because that's what happens. You don't incentivise people to be more prepared when you have price gougers. The disaster is the incentive. You incentivise parasitic and predatory behaviour, from people who have market power, against those who do not. You could have the perfect prepared ant population and they would still be in trouble if all of the actors who manage their supply chains or can constrain their supply chains are allowed to act in a predatory fashion. I work in respiratory medical health and Covid times are a perfect example of this; the hospitals were prepared with months of supply, and yet the disaster lasted years. Supply was not an issue because predatory practices were punished by law & political action; had it been permitted, you have a strong incentive to create parasites who seek only to extract as much value as possible with no regard for the human cost.

The second argument is of course, that access to resources is the easiest way to incentivise people to be more prepared for disasters - which is inherently reduced in a system which does not punish people who attempt to corner others' access to resources.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: dragdeler on January 24, 2023, 11:08:43 am
That's a lot of fucking words to argue which way people think forwards when they don't. 
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 11:10:26 am
By reskinning the grasshoppers, we are back to bullies taking lunch money, Duuvian. I know you are trying to link it to merchants, but their "control" consists only of what someone else is willing to pay. There's a reason cartels fall apart.  It's either that or maintain their existence through state-equivalent levels of violence and terror. Or, as above, becoming the bullies stealing lunch money.

scriver, most of that is grasshopper excuses. Heck, two tins of canned chicken and a small box of instant rice is plenty of calories for a family of 4 for a day, and occupies considerably less space than a 12-pack of soda. Even at current prices, it's a shade under $7. I could have easily piled 6 month's food supply in 5-gallon buckets under my bed back when I lived in the dorms, though my roommate probably would have given me strange looks.

I know there are situations where whatever preparations you take could be swept away. That's why you help those unfortunates out. I also know there are a lot of people who have absolutely nothing stored, who shop each day for that day's food. They are the ones going to the store the day before the hurricane hits land and buy bread, milk and toilet paper. Granted, there is no way to know whether someone is telling the truth about his preps being destroyed, so use your own best judgement. Don't give so deeply that it jeopardizes you and yours, of course.

Give me a chance to read and think on your post, Loud Whispers. I'll get back to it later.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: dragdeler on January 24, 2023, 12:44:00 pm
If catastrophy strikes this very moment the peoole who are going to be stocked up were allways the people who were stocked up at all times, I wouldn't call it foresight necessarily , allways worrying you won't have enough is a preliminary state (non pathological) of the pathology greed.

If anything the ant is blind, it doesn't foresee anything, you gave it 2 units of food everytime it gathers 1, it would continue to stockpile anyway, on the other hand I know few insects as skittish as grasshoppers, man as soon as that 6 foot shadow enters their periphery those things are gone. So maybe shake the biblical subtones and stop discussing this shit in terms of a children fable, especially when it doesn't work on macroscale.

Yes piglet in stonehouse has the most common sense, big win, meanwhile it's easier on the supply chain to have 1000 appartment dwellers consume an average of 0,7463 sour cheese boxes per week than it is for a supermarket to anticipate single customers buying their stock of some product empty sparodically. Not moral relativism, circumscribing these thing in definitve formulation was a loosing bet from the get go, the smallest common denominator is probably something like, "everybody is a nuisance to someone.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 02:01:35 pm
Because that's what happens. You don't incentivise people to be more prepared when you have price gougers. The disaster is the incentive.
Feel free to correct me, but I think this is the core of your argument. But if they are stocked up, why should they care about gougers? They are someone else's problem. Either someone who did not bother stocking up, or someone whose stocks were destroyed by the disaster.

If the former, then that argues against you that the disaster in itself is enough to incentivize preparedness, when by definition it was not, in the same manner that police have to keep picking up people for speeding in a school zone because, self-evidently, they are speeding, despite the knowledge that the disaster of smashing into a kid should have been enough of an incentive.

If the latter, that's where you had the foresight to set aside a little extra for your neighbor, trusting that if the roles were reversed, he would do the same for you.

If you don't think humans are ingenious enough to devise ways of storing food in ways that are safe from most disaster conditions, you need an explanation for why humans didn't die out hundreds of thousands, millions of years ago. Maybe we've just become terminally stupid?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 25, 2023, 05:40:45 am
If catastrophy strikes this very moment the peoole who are going to be stocked up were allways the people who were stocked up at all times, I wouldn't call it foresight necessarily , allways worrying you won't have enough is a preliminary state (non pathological) of the pathology greed.

If anything the ant is blind, it doesn't foresee anything, you gave it 2 units of food everytime it gathers 1, it would continue to stockpile anyway, on the other hand I know few insects as skittish as grasshoppers, man as soon as that 6 foot shadow enters their periphery those things are gone. So maybe shake the biblical subtones and stop discussing this shit in terms of a children fable, especially when it doesn't work on macroscale.
Even so, I think it's worth being prepared just in case. There are plenty of times where if you are prepared for a disaster, then you are well prepared for something which is less than a disaster. E.g. being prepared for a catastrophe means you're much less affected if there is a power out, or if there is a sudden shock in food prices, or you suddenly lose your job and source of income. The ant may not have the foresight to foresee anything in particular, but in the story the ant is just preparing for winter itself. Much in the same way that we can't tell when disaster will strike, it's not that hard to envision that one day, bad things will happen, and having some emergency funds and supplies as a safety net can carry you through.

Yes piglet in stonehouse has the most common sense, big win, meanwhile it's easier on the supply chain to have 1000 appartment dwellers consume an average of 0,7463 sour cheese boxes per week than it is for a supermarket to anticipate single customers buying their stock of some product empty sparodically. Not moral relativism, circumscribing these thing in definitve formulation was a loosing bet from the get go, the smallest common denominator is probably something like, "everybody is a nuisance to someone.
Hahaha, reminds me of the spaghetti panic runs, where people simultaneously begin hoarding spaghetti

Feel free to correct me, but I think this is the core of your argument. But if they are stocked up, why should they care about gougers? They are someone else's problem. Either someone who did not bother stocking up, or someone whose stocks were destroyed by the disaster.
Because they are a moral blight in this world I live in who provoke the same outrage upon me as I would upon hearing my neighbours got robbed. My response wouldn't be "don't care I didn't get robbed not my problem" my response would be "these gougers are criminal predators." There is more to life for me than self-interest; everything good and enjoyable in life comes from the networks I build on trust, altruism and honesty. Introducing a moral hazard and perverse incentive to be rapacious, selfish and dishonest will inevitably poison the well of society. Even if it will not affect me monetarily, I would rather not see my society endorse dickheads, and am happy with the way they are castigated.

If the former, then that argues against you that the disaster in itself is enough to incentivize preparedness, when by definition it was not, in the same manner that police have to keep picking up people for speeding in a school zone because, self-evidently, they are speeding, despite the knowledge that the disaster of smashing into a kid should have been enough of an incentive.
In this scenario you are comparing the person engaging in dangerous behaviour (a gouger exploiting people in times of crisis) with a person being endangered by reckless behaviour (a child about to be hit by a careless driver). This is funny

If the latter, that's where you had the foresight to set aside a little extra for your neighbor, trusting that if the roles were reversed, he would do the same for you.

If you don't think humans are ingenious enough to devise ways of storing food in ways that are safe from most disaster conditions, you need an explanation for why humans didn't die out hundreds of thousands, millions of years ago. Maybe we've just become terminally stupid?
See:
Access to refrigeration, storage space, the ability to procure such items in sufficient quantity at a price within their means e.t.c. all contribute to this. Even in developed countries, even when there are no times of crisis, you can see this effect on everyday spending. It is trivial for wealthier individuals to purchase bulk items & transport them, whereas items which are sold in smaller units all cost higher per gram or per litre. As a result it is cheaper for wealthier shoppers to buy higher quality ingredients in bulk than it is for poorer persons to buy lower quality ingredients in smaller units. This disparity grows when you consider how many more facilities for storage and cooking are available for wealthier persons than their poorer counterparts. Poverty is self-reinforcing. If you have more market power you can reject bad deals; for poorer persons, they have to take what they can get. This is where price gouging becomes especially evil, in that you severely reward those who have more market power and completely fuck over those without it.
Out of all possible solutions to this; whether it be through education, social values, religion, disaster relief stockpiles, support networks, community outreach, reserve forces e.t.c. why would you pick the only one that creates a perverse incentive for the creation of a parasite class of merchants of misery who actively get people killed in times of crisis and actively make things worse for those who have the will to prepare, but lack the means. The stick of a price gouger is pitiable compared to the stick of the disaster which enables them; but you're giving a carrot to predatory behaviour, and you will get predators if you allow it
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on January 25, 2023, 07:50:48 am
By reskinning the grasshoppers, we are back to bullies taking lunch money, Duuvian. I know you are trying to link it to merchants, but their "control" consists only of what someone else is willing to pay. There's a reason cartels fall apart.  It's either that or maintain their existence through state-equivalent levels of violence and terror. Or, as above, becoming the bullies stealing lunch money.

Ah, I am glad you agree with my clumsy attempt so completely. I didn't even have to include a part where the grasshopper influences the drones, well done. The question remains, is whether the indoors ants call the outdoor ants Grasshopper, or fellow ants as they are.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: dragdeler on January 25, 2023, 10:15:28 am
Over here stockpiling is like the default position,I have ridiculous piles of some stuff myself, not necessarily food but like cleaning products etc it's pretty random, I bu at good prices is all. The independence is valuable but yeah, loads of inefficencies... What gets thrown away can not be eaten by somebody else; tho not everything could have been affordable at that moment to the people who really needed it thanks to our great distribution mechanisms...


Thing is, if one mentality is the prevalent, the majority is gonna tend to pick on those that are different, even if they're a blessing in terms of lessening rush.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on January 25, 2023, 11:42:48 am
Because [gougers] are a moral blight in this world...
Why do you think this? The moral principle, I mean.

Pretty much every time the power goes out in the summer, there are some people who go around and buy all the ice available. Sure, part of it goes to keeping the food cold, but a lot of it just gets put in dishpans to keep some room cooler than it otherwise would be, or dumped in a kiddie pool in the back yard to keep the beer on ice. Quite a bit of it melts on the back porch, never having been put to any use at all, but, hey, at a buck a bag, why not? If you needed it, you had it. On the other hand, the guy who needed a small cooler full to keep his medication cold but got to the store too late is just screwed.

In this world, there are people like the first guy. Whatever the policy, it has to deal with the problems these guys cause. Some stores try limits, which sort of work, but then the same guy just makes trips through each checkout line with 2 bags at a time, and more than once I've seen people with far more than the limits with the clerk giving him a nasty look, but making the sale anyway. At, say, $5 a bag, he's more likely to think, "Do I really need more ice? A bunch of it just melted last time." And the guy with the critical need is much happier to pay $5 than to not have any at all.

Whenever you ponder an idea, the important question is, "Compared to what?"

[EDIT]
This applies in spades to the policy of extortionate fines for gouging. When the potential fine is greater than the annual profit, and even if it's not true, a single disgruntled person filing a claim can impose lawyer costs well over your monthly profit, the smart move is to simply remain closed after a disaster.
[/EDIT]

In this scenario you are comparing the person engaging in dangerous behaviour (a gouger exploiting people in times of crisis) with a person being endangered by reckless behaviour (a child about to be hit by a careless driver). This is funny
I was trying to compare gouger to speeder, the people being "exploited" with the kid getting splatted.

By the way, there's an easy way to keep from being exploited by gougers. Just don't buy from them. But don't even attempt doing the same with the taxing authorities. If you want to know who the real exploiters are, ask yourself, "To whom can I say, 'No'".

If the latter, that's where you had the foresight to set aside a little extra for your neighbor, trusting that if the roles were reversed, he would do the same for you.

If you don't think humans are ingenious enough to devise ways of storing food in ways that are safe from most disaster conditions, you need an explanation for why humans didn't die out hundreds of thousands, millions of years ago. Maybe we've just become terminally stupid?
See:
Access to refrigeration, storage space, the ability to procure such items in sufficient quantity at a price within their means e.t.c. all contribute to this. Even in developed countries, even when there are no times of crisis, you can see this effect on everyday spending. It is trivial for wealthier individuals to purchase bulk items & transport them, whereas items which are sold in smaller units all cost higher per gram or per litre. As a result it is cheaper for wealthier shoppers to buy higher quality ingredients in bulk than it is for poorer persons to buy lower quality ingredients in smaller units. This disparity grows when you consider how many more facilities for storage and cooking are available for wealthier persons than their poorer counterparts. Poverty is self-reinforcing. If you have more market power you can reject bad deals; for poorer persons, they have to take what they can get. This is where price gouging becomes especially evil, in that you severely reward those who have more market power and completely fuck over those without it.
Out of all possible solutions to this; whether it be through education, social values, religion, disaster relief stockpiles, support networks, community outreach, reserve forces e.t.c. why would you pick the only one that creates a perverse incentive for the creation of a parasite class of merchants of misery who actively get people killed in times of crisis and actively make things worse for those who have the will to prepare, but lack the means. The stick of a price gouger is pitiable compared to the stick of the disaster which enables them; but you're giving a carrot to predatory behaviour, and you will get predators if you allow it
I get the feeling you are coming from a lesser developed country. I have no personal experience there. But I have lots of personal experience in the States. If anything, it's become far easier now for those of lesser means to stock up. You have to look at prices, but often Amazon has durable food less expensive than at the big box, and they bring it right to your door. Every year, Bezos gives away Prime to poor people, so they have access to better delivery terms than I do, though honestly, it's not that hard to end up with $25 in your cart so you get free shipping. There's a regional supermarket chain with prices really close to WalMart that delivers a $50 order for free. I use that all the time rather than dealing with the hassle of shopping, though I tip the delivery person generously. And in return, they make sure my order has no damaged packages before they deliver it.

If you live somewhere that options like this do not exist, where there are no sales except gougers, I feel sorry for you, though I can't really empathize as I have no frame of reference.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 27, 2023, 08:45:46 am
Because [gougers] are a moral blight in this world...
Why do you think this? The moral principle, I mean.
Cos it's a predatory practice used by parasites to actively reduce value in an existing society for personal profit

Seems pretty self-evident

If you have a ticket scalper who buys up a whole bunch of tickets to resell them later at higher prices, you actively reduce the supply and use of the tickets in exchange for nothing. Resources which were allocated for people to enjoy the concert show get wasted as less people actually get to access it, and much more value gets wasted and redirected into the pockets of a parasite, which if left unchecked, will eventually kill its host. Hence why concerts are anti-ticket gouging. Substitute concert tickets with life saving supplies and the practice is yet more abhorrent. People will die as a result, who would not have died had they been able to purchase the supplies themselves. They could not purchase the supply because supply was artificially constrained by a gouger. That gouger killed people for personal profit.

That's why it's disgusting m8

Pretty much every time the power goes out in the summer, there are some people who go around and buy all the ice available. Sure, part of it goes to keeping the food cold, but a lot of it just gets put in dishpans to keep some room cooler than it otherwise would be, or dumped in a kiddie pool in the back yard to keep the beer on ice. Quite a bit of it melts on the back porch, never having been put to any use at all, but, hey, at a buck a bag, why not? If you needed it, you had it. On the other hand, the guy who needed a small cooler full to keep his medication cold but got to the store too late is just screwed.
Lol why are you okay with this?

In this world, there are people like the first guy. Whatever the policy, it has to deal with the problems these guys cause. Some stores try limits, which sort of work, but then the same guy just makes trips through each checkout line with 2 bags at a time, and more than once I've seen people with far more than the limits with the clerk giving him a nasty look, but making the sale anyway. At, say, $5 a bag, he's more likely to think, "Do I really need more ice? A bunch of it just melted last time." And the guy with the critical need is much happier to pay $5 than to not have any at all.
In this world people who tried price gouging everyone on PPE and alcohol gel got their stocks confiscated and redistributed for free to keep staff stocks high lol. In this scenario it's that one asshole who bought all the ice to resell it for $5 a bag being forced to give it to the guy who needs to chill their med stocks for free. Supermarket is happy because the price gouger already paid for it all, med stocks are chilled, price gouger gets gouged, world is good

By the way, there's an easy way to keep from being exploited by gougers. Just don't buy from them. But don't even attempt doing the same with the taxing authorities. If you want to know who the real exploiters are, ask yourself, "To whom can I say, 'No'".
Price gougers only arise in situations where supply can be constrained by individuals with outsized market power compared to actual consumers; in such cases where a commodity suddenly becomes critical or supply chains are suddenly interrupted, only an active elimination of predatory gougers is sufficient. If for example someone tried buying all of a certain antibiotic to resell to hospitals, "not buying" is not an option, as the need is constant and immediate. This is especially true for any resource whose supply is being unnaturally limited by a few gougers accumulating great stockpiles to induce an artificial drought in supply

I get the feeling you are coming from a lesser developed country.
I live in the UK. You can drink the tap water and breath the air, but give it some time, we're slowly sinking into the stone age ;(

If you live somewhere that options like this do not exist, where there are no sales except gougers, I feel sorry for you, though I can't really empathize as I have no frame of reference.
Even countries with excellent supply in whatever resources can suddenly experience the conditions necessary to allow price gouging to exist, e.g. Covid-19, the blocking of the Suez Canal, Black Sea shipment blockade, sudden panic/hype over a certain resource e.t.c.

Honestly the only reliable way you can ensure your country does not fall victim to gougers who attempt to create artificial supply constraints is by regulating against it. Your own country had people try to corner onions (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act) amongst other things until the government told them to cut that shit out. And that was just two men - two men, with oversized market power, dictating terms to everyone else who actually sold, traded or consumed onions, doing nothing but hold onto onions, adding no value to onions or using any onions for anything other than exploiting those reliant on onions. If you don't bother to regulate vital commodities, inevitably people are going to start getting the bright idea of pricing vital resources according to what they think people will be willing to pay, rather than the actual worth of the product. This is why America pays $98.70 per shot of insulin, but Canada pays $12 and UK $7.52. Yours is the only country in the world that has fantastic supply chains yet allows price gouging anyways (https://wisevoter.com/country-rankings/cost-of-insulin-by-country/); I can't empathize with your frame of reference either - you seem very happy with how your country has been captured by price gougers, endorse it as a moral good and market efficiency, despite being the sole country in the world that permits this in times of peace and prosperity, let alone times of chaos ~o.o~
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 27, 2023, 12:14:00 pm
Wow I go on a business trip and look what happens!  I don't think I can add any more to what has been said; I've already stated I'm in the camp that thinks price gouging is detrimental to economies and societies, even if it is "pure" capitalism.   I agree with LW that even if you don't consider the social implications (which is bad for economies in the long run), even in the short term it's a misallocation of resources which the extreme capitalist should respect.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Nope
Post by: EuchreJack on January 28, 2023, 12:29:42 am
Nope
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Thorfinn on February 02, 2023, 03:48:58 pm
Pretty much every time the power goes out in the summer, there are some people who go around and buy all the ice available. Sure, part of it goes to keeping the food cold, but a lot of it just gets put in dishpans to keep some room cooler than it otherwise would be, or dumped in a kiddie pool in the back yard to keep the beer on ice. Quite a bit of it melts on the back porch, never having been put to any use at all, but, hey, at a buck a bag, why not? If you needed it, you had it. On the other hand, the guy who needed a small cooler full to keep his medication cold but got to the store too late is just screwed.
Lol why are you okay with this?
What makes you think I'm OK with it? I'm just saying it's what happens.

In this world, there are people like the first guy. Whatever the policy, it has to deal with the problems these guys cause. Some stores try limits, which sort of work, but then the same guy just makes trips through each checkout line with 2 bags at a time, and more than once I've seen people with far more than the limits with the clerk giving him a nasty look, but making the sale anyway. At, say, $5 a bag, he's more likely to think, "Do I really need more ice? A bunch of it just melted last time." And the guy with the critical need is much happier to pay $5 than to not have any at all.
In this world people who tried price gouging everyone on PPE and alcohol gel got their stocks confiscated and redistributed for free to keep staff stocks high lol. In this scenario it's that one asshole who bought all the ice to resell it for $5 a bag being forced to give it to the guy who needs to chill their med stocks for free. Supermarket is happy because the price gouger already paid for it all, med stocks are chilled, price gouger gets gouged, world is good
Yep. Agreed. So, like in the real world, next time people won't bother to buy generators to bring them to where people need them. No one gets generators? That's supposed to be a good thing?

By the way, there's an easy way to keep from being exploited by gougers. Just don't buy from them. But don't even attempt doing the same with the taxing authorities. If you want to know who the real exploiters are, ask yourself, "To whom can I say, 'No'".
Price gougers only arise in situations where supply can be constrained by individuals with outsized market power compared to actual consumers; in such cases where a commodity suddenly becomes critical or supply chains are suddenly interrupted, only an active elimination of predatory gougers is sufficient. If for example someone tried buying all of a certain antibiotic to resell to hospitals, "not buying" is not an option, as the need is constant and immediate. This is especially true for any resource whose supply is being unnaturally limited by a few gougers accumulating great stockpiles to induce an artificial drought in supply
This is just silly. In any economy of any size at all, any "market power" that exists is simply because government has decided to interpose itself. Otherwise, the guy who buys for the least, and has the lowest overhead, can afford to sell for the lowest price, which we know the consumer prefers.

I get the feeling you are coming from a lesser developed country.
I live in the UK. You can drink the tap water and breath the air, but give it some time, we're slowly sinking into the stone age ;(
OK. Mostly we can drink the water and breathe the air, except for the relative handful of places where government says it is in charge of water and air. Like for instance, Flint, MI or Jackson, MS.

If you live somewhere that options like this do not exist, where there are no sales except gougers, I feel sorry for you, though I can't really empathize as I have no frame of reference.
Even countries with excellent supply in whatever resources can suddenly experience the conditions necessary to allow price gouging to exist, e.g. Covid-19, the blocking of the Suez Canal, Black Sea shipment blockade, sudden panic/hype over a certain resource e.t.c.
Nope. There are always people who anticipate bizarre, tin-foil hat events. The massive big box stores are not this type. But they manage to find enough morons to blame "gougers" so that they can maintain their profit margins.

Feel free to root for the megacorps all you like. Personally, I'd like it if the local grocery store had a shot.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on February 07, 2023, 07:50:57 pm
Heh I just read something that claims that "price gouging cannot exist in a free market".

Apparently because if some company tries to price gouge, magically there are no natural barriers to entry (such as availability of natural resources, free capital, physical space, energy, etc.) for competitors to come in and replace supply.

I mean sure, there's a microchip shortage, let me instantaneously convert my food processing plant into an EUV chip fab.

I think what the author meant to say is that price gouging cannot exist in the long term in a truly free market, but that is almost irrelevant for practical purposes, because people are impacted adversely in the short term just as much (arguably even more, because of compounding effects) as the long term.  It also misses that in a truly free market, any entity with gouging power is able to consolidate resources and increase their ability to "gouge" in more markets in the future.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 31, 2023, 02:46:02 pm
https://fortune.com/2023/05/30/building-wealth-three-step-strategy-tips/amp/ (https://fortune.com/2023/05/30/building-wealth-three-step-strategy-tips/amp/)

Funny enough, they didn't have the three easy steps to building wealth that I thought of:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
If you look at the author of the "tips", you might see which tips he's using...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: lemon10 on May 31, 2023, 06:17:27 pm
Heh I just read something that claims that "price gouging cannot exist in a free market".

Apparently because if some company tries to price gouge, magically there are no natural barriers to entry (such as availability of natural resources, free capital, physical space, energy, etc.) for competitors to come in and replace supply.

I mean sure, there's a microchip shortage, let me instantaneously convert my food processing plant into an EUV chip fab.

I think what the author meant to say is that price gouging cannot exist in the long term in a truly free market, but that is almost irrelevant for practical purposes, because people are impacted adversely in the short term just as much (arguably even more, because of compounding effects) as the long term.  It also misses that in a truly free market, any entity with gouging power is able to consolidate resources and increase their ability to "gouge" in more markets in the future.
There are a few complete nonsense assumptions that everything in neo-classical economics is based on.
They just assume that:
People are rational.
Everyone has perfect knowledge.
There are no barriers to entry.

Now obviously this is all complete nonsense and extremely stupid stuff to base the global economic system off, but that doesn't stop them from being core assumptions of the neo-liberal economic system that is propagandized taught in US highschools.
---
And you might say something like "But wait, obviously people aren't rational how can they get away with saying they are?" and they would go "Well, we redefined the term rational so it means something different from the actual definition so that we can pretend its true and justify corporate looting".
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 31, 2023, 06:50:04 pm
I mean, people are also assumed to know every law the second it's passed, and we can see how that works out...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on May 31, 2023, 09:28:02 pm
Its a soft science based around human activity, what assumptions do you expect them to make?

The whole study is pointless if you're just going to go "well people might not do what we guess anyway"
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 03, 2023, 02:11:32 pm
I guess I can provide info on the Writer's Guild Strike here.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/culture/23746816/strike-wga-dga-sag-hollywood (https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/culture/23746816/strike-wga-dga-sag-hollywood)

I'm not sure to what degree they're getting mainstream media coverage, since they're owned by The Enemy.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: lemon10 on June 03, 2023, 03:04:54 pm
Its a soft science based around human activity, what assumptions do you expect them to make?

The whole study is pointless if you're just going to go "well people might not do what we guess anyway"
This might sound a bit simplistic; but how about they make assumptions that aren't obviously wrong?

Now, I do understand the value in a good basic model, but if you are going to use this model for anything in the real world then having it be fundamentally wrong is really stupid.
Its like engineers trying to build a bridge operating under the assumption that said bridge would exist in a frictionless vaccum, not only is it stupid, but its going to get a lot of people killed.
This is relevant because like bad structures horrible economic policy can and does kill people.

And there are totally branches of economics that don't make these stupid assumptions, so even though its a soft science they can just... look at all those other not-stupid economists?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 03, 2023, 10:22:30 pm
Its a soft science based around human activity, what assumptions do you expect them to make?

The whole study is pointless if you're just going to go "well people might not do what we guess anyway"
This might sound a bit simplistic; but how about they make assumptions that aren't obviously wrong?

Now, I do understand the value in a good basic model, but if you are going to use this model for anything in the real world then having it be fundamentally wrong is really stupid.
Its like engineers trying to build a bridge operating under the assumption that said bridge would exist in a frictionless vaccum, not only is it stupid, but its going to get a lot of people killed.
This is relevant because like bad structures horrible economic policy can and does kill people.

And there are totally branches of economics that don't make these stupid assumptions, so even though its a soft science they can just... look at all those other not-stupid economists?
You're forgetting about the Millions being pumped into perpetrating the Wrong theories. Rich gotta stay rich, and they got the dough to back it up.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 12, 2023, 04:27:22 pm
Tesla just got their payday: https://crackberry.com/gm-and-ford-are-adopting-teslas-ev-charging-connector-all-killing-ccs-north-america (https://crackberry.com/gm-and-ford-are-adopting-teslas-ev-charging-connector-all-killing-ccs-north-america)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 12, 2023, 04:43:03 pm
I'm still waiting for TSLA stock price to get back up to where it was when I bought though... I really have poor timing there.  Although considering I bought based on them being an energy company, not a car company, I feel some hope, but maybe delusional... it's less than 3% of my holdings though, so take my lamentations with a grain of salt.

The more annoying thing is, I just bought an EV with a CCS connector.  Also I really wish the government would enforce "must be able to pay at the pump" rules they put in the infrastructure act, and not have to make an account with the Tesla network....
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 12, 2023, 10:09:33 pm
A brief review shows Tesla's stock price is reacting positive to this news.

I don't think this is actually new news, so those who acted on it first probably made decent money.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 15, 2023, 02:10:33 pm
Global inequality decreasing?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/great-convergence-equality-branko-milanovic (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/great-convergence-equality-branko-milanovic)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 12:35:07 pm
It's official: The Government advises people not to pay their bills:
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/pittsburgh/news/u-s-postal-service-warning-checks-mail/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/pittsburgh/news/u-s-postal-service-warning-checks-mail/)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on June 23, 2023, 12:57:42 pm
Aw that is so not what that says.  Would have been more funny if it is what they were saying though.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 23, 2023, 09:36:50 pm
https://fortune.com/2023/06/22/citi-workers-flouting-return-to-office-mandate-to-face-consequences/amp/ (https://fortune.com/2023/06/22/citi-workers-flouting-return-to-office-mandate-to-face-consequences/amp/)

Only one appropriate response:
https://youtu.be/QP3zRBtgvJo (https://youtu.be/QP3zRBtgvJo)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Lidku on June 26, 2023, 11:51:48 pm
Is there any point of saving as a 22 yr old in 2023? Everything is rising, I dropped out of college a long time ago, and I literally only get by taking care of my grandma through an agency. I've worked many shitty retail jobs, but they've always predictably fallen through.

I failed my driving test because the driving school I took was incompetent in scheduling me, which basically wasted a ton of my money. I used to have at least 5k-6k in my bank account, but a girl I knew from high school way back scammed me. After I cut her off she's been homeless (apparently she was homeless even during we were corresponding, but I didn't know that way after).

Now because of that incident in me being an (admittedly) stupid simp, I only hover around 1k at all times due to expenses (food, various other things, paying "rent" to my mom even though we live in a house).

I just dunno anymore and I don't even know why I'm even venting here on Bay12 at 1'o clock in the morning of all things... lol
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on June 27, 2023, 12:38:43 am
You should be investing instead of saving.

$1000 is enough to start an investment account, and you can put in usually a minimum of $25 a month.

Stocks, unlike cash, generally go up with inflation, so you're not actually losing (as much) money like putting it in the bank.  But when I say "generally", I mean "over several years".  Trying to time the market generally means losing money, hence why you put in the same amount every month.

Uh, people from high school generally suck.  You are better off socializing with people that you don't have that shared experience.

If you have "some college", then there are probably lots of jobs that you could do.

You can always take your driving test again.  I passed on my second try, at around your age.  The driving school only helped me like 75% of the way. After that, I had to just drive with licensed relatives for a while.  I also was a lousy driver in my first few years even with the license.

The two biggest opportunities in the job market are:
1) Replacing the people that refuse to return to the offices
2) Working from home, which you might be able to do in addition to taking care of your grandma through an agency. (just don't tell anyone)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Lidku on June 27, 2023, 01:02:19 am
Thanks for the advice Jack. Though, I don't know about mentioning "some college" at all, since I only went there for about 1 month. lol

Stocks? I might go into that when I'm back in the 3k-4k ballpark range, but I generally don't want to mess with it since I know so little about it.

And my driving skills from a years ago (because I started around 2021, if I remember correctly) has basically become non-existent I believe, since I haven't driven ever since I failed the first time. There is a second driving school in the place where I live, but I've been burnt out from these driving schools from the way I was treated last time (650~ dollars down the drain, around the time after I cut-off that scam girl from high school.. so the waste of the 650 for all these courses that were irregularly scheduled, were damaging to me).

I live near NYC, so office jobs MAYBE in the picture for me.. but without a car, I wouldn't be able to reliably commute to it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 06, 2023, 10:51:02 am
For stocks - don't try to pick individual ones unless you just enjoy it.  Just pick an index fund or target retirement date fund and don't stress.

Other topic: why is the stock market so inconsistent? "Hey look, 500k new jobs in June, all these people now have incomes and will be able to buy stuff companies make! Oh, but that means interest rates will stay higher longer... so let's sell our stocks!"

I can understand the math of economics, but I really can't understand the mass psychology...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 06, 2023, 10:52:35 am
The stock market is rigged, just accept it and move on.  :P
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 18, 2023, 10:36:00 pm
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/18/business/recession-prepare-savings/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/18/business/recession-prepare-savings/index.html)
WTF?!

Yes, I know the "bank analysts" are full-of-shit hypemen, but can't they even maintain internal consistency?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 19, 2023, 06:46:39 am
I read that twice - what's the inconsistency?  I mean it's early in the day for me, but I'm not seeing it... I'm legitimately curious as to what you mean.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 19, 2023, 08:13:45 am
It's probably more in what they seem to be implying not matching their facts. But yes, the inconsistencies vanish upon a more careful reread.

Have a much better article, obviously not written by Americans: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/10-reasons-recession-wall-street-predicted-to-death-never-happened-2023-7?amp (https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/10-reasons-recession-wall-street-predicted-to-death-never-happened-2023-7?amp)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 19, 2023, 12:40:45 pm
Interesting - although I have to say, it's really amusing how they simply just state these bullet points without any kind of real rationale backing them up. I mean it's just empty statements like "employment is still strong" or "credit really isn't that tight."

I mean the article reads more to me like rationalization as in "these are possible reasons," rather than evidence that those are indeed the reasons.  Especially since they listed so many - I mean yes they each contributed to some effect, but it's to the point of being "true but not useful." I mean there's no insight or anything there.

I mean they could have added reason #11, "the predictions of recession were based on speculation and fear, not data..."
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 21, 2023, 12:58:44 pm
The best path to wealth:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2023/07/20/the-secret-world-of-luxury-dating-5-research-backed-insights-into-wooing-the-wealthy/amp/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2023/07/20/the-secret-world-of-luxury-dating-5-research-backed-insights-into-wooing-the-wealthy/amp/)
The article is a bit biased, but contains useful info for the crafty.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 24, 2023, 10:57:56 pm
It just occurred to me that the "Work in Office" vs. "Work from Home" is a fake employee rights fight, when it's really a fight between competing corporate interests.

The "Work from Office" crowd is the banks and owners of the office buildings, that are losing clients and potential revenue.

The "Work from Home" crowd is the businesses that realize that taking away another worker right (the right to have a place to work provided to them) actually saves substantial costs to the Employer.

YES, having a place to work provided by the employer is a worker BENEFIT, not an OBLIGATION.  Not having to provide your own office supplies, furniture, internet connection, or phone service. Getting paid for being there rather than proving you are producing work.  Having your employer include you in their payroll, with the mandatory deductions, rather than throwing you to the Tax Wolves as an Independent Contractor.

Are there some that would see a working from home as beneficial? Sure.  But I think the "work from home" movement is really about taking AWAY worker benefits  in the guise of rewards.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 24, 2023, 11:02:08 pm
But I think the "work from home" movement is really about taking AWAY worker benefits  in the guise of rewards.
You're uh... just figuring that out? :P
Work from home saves corporations tons of money, at the expense of either employees or taxpayers when the employees figure out they can deduct work expenses.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 25, 2023, 12:17:33 am
"See, we can all just pay less to the Government, and we'll all get richer!
...of course, only I can afford the accountants and corporate structure to get away with it, whereas you will probably crumble if the IRS even looks at you.
But Progress!" ::Capitalist Hat::
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 25, 2023, 12:21:21 am
"See, we can all just pay less to the Government, and we'll all get richer!
...of course, only I can afford the accountants and corporate structure to get away with it, whereas you will probably crumble if the IRS even looks at you.
But Progress!" ::Capitalist Hat::
Well... no, deducting work expenses is legal and easy and also the IRS makes it mandatory to have free tax software available (I use it).

The main problem I would have brought up is that it doesn't actually reimburse you for the expenses, it just means you aren't TAXED on them, so you're still on the hook for the actual cost, and your employer isn't either way.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 25, 2023, 12:24:39 am
"See, we can all just pay less to the Government, and we'll all get richer!
...of course, only I can afford the accountants and corporate structure to get away with it, whereas you will probably crumble if the IRS even looks at you.
But Progress!" ::Capitalist Hat::
Well... no, deducting work expenses is legal and easy and also the IRS makes it mandatory to have free tax software available (I use it).

The main problem I would have brought up is that it doesn't actually reimburse you for the expenses, it just means you aren't TAXED on them, so you're still on the hook for the actual cost, and your employer isn't either way.
Which, for the viewer at home's benefit since you already know this, means employees contractors can legally earn less than minimum wage!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 25, 2023, 12:50:12 pm
This is a bizarre take... I am way better off financially, mental health, and in any other criteria you can think of for working from home.

It's like a broken window fallacy, saying that it's better for society if I don't work from home because then I'm generating tax revenue and paying others higher prices for (say) eating out for lunch instead of eating at home, rather than just not spending that money on "accidental expenses" and instead spending it on things I want.

I mean sure the transition is tough, but what if instead of needing 1000 people in a city to do office building maintenance and janitorial, those 1000 people are free to do something else?

- - - -

Totally different topic, the one for which I came back to this thread to post before seeing the other stuff:

When industries (or individuals) yell about their suppliers having "excessive pricing", is this emotion-based, or is it based on some kind of objective criteria?  More philosophically - if you were a regulatory agency trying to determine if the pricing was excessive, how would you know?

Or more basically, isn't "excessive" always a relative term, not absolute?

Is it even possible to come up with a (fair?) criteria for excessive?  If supply meets demand at some price, how is that excessive?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 25, 2023, 02:49:07 pm
I mean sure the transition is tough, but what if instead of needing 1000 people in a city to do office building maintenance and janitorial, those 1000 people are free to do something else?
That's called "not having jobs anymore". What, do you think they're going to learn to code? In this economy?

Nobody made anything resembling a broken windows argument, anyway. We were talking about the need to set aside dedicated office space in your home, heat or cool that space while you're there, supply it in various ways, pay for your own network usage, pay for your own printing and copying, now being responsible for your own paperwork and other materials instead of being able to leave it in someone else's custody at the end of the day... and so on. You may see a small savings from eating at home - statistically, most people eat takeout most of the time anyway - and probably a much larger one you didn't even mention from avoiding the commute, but that doesn't change the fact that your employer is getting away with pushing a lot of responsibility onto your plate and convincing you to like it.

Quote
When industries (or individuals) yell about their suppliers having "excessive pricing", is this emotion-based, or is it based on some kind of objective criteria?  More philosophically - if you were a regulatory agency trying to determine if the pricing was excessive, how would you know?

Or more basically, isn't "excessive" always a relative term, not absolute?

Is it even possible to come up with a (fair?) criteria for excessive?  If supply meets demand at some price, how is that excessive?
Nope. It just means "asking more than I hoped to pay".
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 25, 2023, 03:33:52 pm
The argument is if you had a society that didn't need janitors then you'd be better off than if you do need janitors.  Sure if you already have a society that needs janitors, and transition to a society that doesn't need them, then you repeat the endless historical pattern of "oh heavens my livelihood was replaced by progress."

Yes it sucks for the individuals caught in the transition, but it's better for society.  It's like the broken window fallacy because you're spending money on janitorial staff that you wouldn't need at all if you didn't have millions of square feet of office buildings.  Yes they have jobs, but it's literally just pushing dirt around. Just like paying people to clean up broken windows - yes you employ them, but that's about it.

Also if your home office makes you spend more on internet, HVAC, and "printing" (do people still do that!?) by more than you save from having no commute - I unequivocally say that You Are Doing Something Wrong.  I mean you're more than welcome to keep working in an office if you want, but for me, it's not worth the tradeoffs.

Even though I do need to get out of my basement (office) more often.  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on July 25, 2023, 03:38:11 pm
Part of it is the sunk cost of already renting all that office space, and needing to justify why it's there.

Or middle management needing to physically micromanage to justify why they are there.

The argument is if you had a society that didn't need janitors then you'd be better off than if you do need janitors.  Sure if you already have a society that needs janitors, and transition to a society that doesn't need them, then you repeat the endless historical pattern of "oh heavens my livelihood was replaced by progress."

Yes it sucks for the individuals caught in the transition, but it's better for society.  It's like the broken window fallacy because you're spending money on janitorial staff that you wouldn't need at all if you didn't have millions of square feet of office buildings.  Yes they have jobs, but it's literally just pushing dirt around. Just like paying people to clean up broken windows - yes you employ them, but that's about it.

Also if your home office makes you spend more on internet, HVAC, and "printing" (do people still do that!?) by more than you save from having no commute - I unequivocally say that You Are Doing Something Wrong.  I mean you're more than welcome to keep working in an office if you want, but for me, it's not worth the tradeoffs.

Even though I do need to get out of my basement (office) more often.  ;D
On the other hand, we're rapidly running out of shit for people to actually do, especially if they're unskilled.  And if people run out of shit to do they just kinda starve to death.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on July 25, 2023, 04:37:51 pm
Sounds like an opportunity to me! Hydroponics for your meager apartment, so at least you won't starve?

Or, hydroponics for your cardboard box, so you won't starve, even though you got kicked out of your meager apartment?  ;)

It is fascinating, in that "watching a car crash" sense, how, at least in the US, society went mostly from self-sufficient pioneers, to now being in cities where you generally aren't even allowed to grow your own food in meaningful quantities. I don't think a couple potted vegetables or herbs is meaningful, at any rate.

I think this contributes to some of the political divide - some folks still have that "there was literally nothing here, we built it all ourselves through muscle and will" and others are "oh there's nothing here (because it was all taken already) so it's not worth trying."  Yeah I'm being a bit reductio ad absurdum but that's what it feels like to me, being in the "with will and muscle, there's a way".  I mean think about people building in swamps, or deserts, or rainforests... that is physically hard, not just legally hard...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 25, 2023, 04:44:16 pm
I mean, I live in the woods, but it's just a fact that you're not going to get most people to go along with it.

Besides, you've still got to produce enough value for society to pay your property taxes, or your stuff will get taken away and given to somebody who will.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 25, 2023, 05:54:22 pm
Uh, we still got factories and farms.  Those folks do not get to work from home.

Work from home is white-collar work.  Frankly, the whole "work from home" vs. "work from office" is a white-collar "problem".

The fact that one must already have excess space for a home office, a reliable internet connection, and a computer, means we're talking about another white-collar barrier to non-labor intensive work.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on July 25, 2023, 06:36:36 pm
Uh, we still got factories and farms.  Those folks do not get to work from home.
I mean... farmers usually live somewhere on their farms. :P
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on July 26, 2023, 04:03:41 am
Uh, we still got factories and farms.  Those folks do not get to work from home.
I mean... farmers usually live somewhere on their farms. :P
...good point!  :P
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 01, 2023, 12:37:52 am
The "Middle Class" continue to be suckers: Middle-income Americans think prosperity is within reach (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/31/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 01, 2023, 02:24:14 am
The "Middle Class" continue to be suckers: Middle-income Americans think prosperity is within reach (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/31/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html)
$40-$140k is one hell of a wide range for them to survey, I wouldn't put the six figs guys in the same bracket as the five, but divide them into lower mid, mid and upper mid
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 01, 2023, 06:46:28 am
Eh, I know I'm biased, but given the definition of prosperity:

Quote
“thriving financially, being able to cover living expenses, handle emergencies, and pursue life goals without significant tradeoffs.”

How does this make the middle class 'suckers', even at the lower end of the bracket? You can absolutely achieve that definition on $50k/year, although it is highly geographically dependent.

It's also extraordinarily dependent on personal preferences: what is a "significant tradeoff"? All of life involves tradeoffs; this definition is pretty vague.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 02, 2023, 04:53:14 am
The "Middle Class" continue to be suckers: Middle-income Americans think prosperity is within reach (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/31/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html)
$40-$140k is one hell of a wide range for them to survey, I wouldn't put the six figs guys in the same bracket as the five, but divide them into lower mid, mid and upper mid
You also probably want actual data, and not a survey that justifies your position... ;D

Eh, I know I'm biased, but given the definition of prosperity:

Quote
“thriving financially, being able to cover living expenses, handle emergencies, and pursue life goals without significant tradeoffs.”

How does this make the middle class 'suckers', even at the lower end of the bracket? You can absolutely achieve that definition on $50k/year, although it is highly geographically dependent.

It's also extraordinarily dependent on personal preferences: what is a "significant tradeoff"? All of life involves tradeoffs; this definition is pretty vague.
Believing in the middle class makes you a sucker.
They don't exist. They died off years ago.
You're either Rich or Poor.
The whole "Middle Class" is cover for the Rich to slum or the Poor to flaunt.
It's also not about "income" as the one-and-only determinant.  Do you have assets? Hm?
Assets are the real definition of wealth. Anyone that distracts from that is pulling some kind of scam.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 02, 2023, 07:31:35 am
You also probably want actual data, and not a survey that justifies your position... ;D
"Do you believe in freedom?"
[ ] Yes
[ ] Absolutely

Believing in the middle class makes you a sucker.
They don't exist. They died off years ago.
You're either Rich or Poor.
The whole "Middle Class" is cover for the Rich to slum or the Poor to flaunt.
It's also not about "income" as the one-and-only determinant.  Do you have assets? Hm?
Assets are the real definition of wealth. Anyone that distracts from that is pulling some kind of scam.
Everyone knows being an asset-rich income-poor fallen aristocrat trapped in a gilded castle atop a lonely mountain slowly liquidating what is left of their once venerable house to vulgar bankers, or being an asset-poor income-poor hiker turned-bog dweller who regularly gets mistaken for a cryptid and whose family misses them very much are the only valid forms of class division. All others are simply unacceptable
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 02, 2023, 08:06:09 am
I mean - I don't understand these statements of certainty with no backing data.  It's a stretch to say that there is no middle class, only rich and poor.  Like I really want to know what definitions are used there, and why the actual definitions are deemed invalid and an oppressive scam?

I just don't see the extensive malicious intent claimed to exist behind so many socioeconomic phenomena...I see most of it as resulting mostly from "I have mine, I don't care about yours" which is more negligence than malice.  Well at least that used to be the case - culture is sadly shifting back to "no I'm willing to actually harm you to get what I want" but that feels more like politics than economics.

Aside: Personally I think that income and material assets are only a portion of what it means to have a rich versus poor life; being rich or poor is just one factor.  I think much of it is actually attitude - there are many people in the world with few material riches, and would consider themselves very "rich" in life. And there are many people with lots of material resources, and consider themselves very poor - not the least evidenced by the many celebrities with tons of wealth but serious depression issues.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 02, 2023, 01:01:09 pm
I mean - I don't understand these statements of certainty with no backing data.  It's a stretch to say that there is no middle class, only rich and poor.  Like I really want to know what definitions are used there, and why the actual definitions are deemed invalid and an oppressive scam?
It's a popular belief of people who are middle class and don't want to be because they listen to too much punk music.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on August 02, 2023, 02:45:51 pm
Either you need to sell your labor to survive, so you're lower class, or you do not.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 02, 2023, 03:10:23 pm
Either you need to sell your labor to survive, so you're lower class, or you do not.
Right, that's exactly the kind of take that you get from people who are incredibly wealthy from a historical perspective but suddenly aware of the increasing precarity of their economic circumstances and deeply resentful of their parents for failing to immanentize the eschaton. Thanks for the great example.

By this argument, prisoners and the disabled are rich, but Richard Branson isn't.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on August 02, 2023, 04:02:21 pm
Prisoners are forced cheap labor, but okay.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on August 02, 2023, 04:03:52 pm
Prisoners are forced cheap labor, but okay.

That's not a thing in all countries, America just really didn't want to let go of slavery...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 02, 2023, 04:10:54 pm
Prisoners are forced cheap labor, but okay.
Prisoners are not required to work in the US and only 61% did at collection of the latest available statistics.

It is an objective fact that many prisoners do not "need to sell [their] labor to survive". Whatever opinions you have about prison labor have nothing to do with that, and also don't change any of the other ways your statement was wrong. It's just a single cherry-picked whinge.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on August 02, 2023, 04:18:28 pm
Prisoners are forced cheap labor, but okay.
Prisoners are not required to work in the US and only 61% did at collection of the latest available statistics.

Depends on the state, from google several states including California have laws mandating prisoners be forced to work. (https://www.capradio.org/articles/2023/05/12/california-is-one-of-16-states-that-allows-forced-labor-but-a-constitutional-amendment-seeks-to-change-that/)

(13th Amendment is explicit that slavery is still totally cool so long as they're a convict: "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.")
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 02, 2023, 04:23:43 pm
Depends on the state, from google several states including California have laws mandating prisoners be forced to work. (https://www.capradio.org/articles/2023/05/12/california-is-one-of-16-states-that-allows-forced-labor-but-a-constitutional-amendment-seeks-to-change-that/)

(13th Amendment is explicit that slavery is still totally cool so long as they're a convict: "Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.")
I'm aware. You do see how that's totally irrelevant to my point, right? What matters is that there are prisoners who don't "need to sell [their] labor to survive", not that some do sell their labor.

Complaining about prison labor is simply nonresponsive.

ETA: Incidentally, the prisoner demographic most likely to be working are college-educated white women, which goes against the "slavery" perspective somewhat.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on August 02, 2023, 04:35:29 pm
I wouldn't count non-voluntary prison labour as selling labour anyway, since...ya know, indentured servitude and all.

Any definition or categories of class are going to have exceptions so debating over them exclusively is pointless either way. And class warfare between the people "desparately trying to keep their home" and "desparately trying to get a home" isn't that useful :)

There's always the proposed expanded class system (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2013/newsspec_5093/index.stm) from UK sociologists:

Precariat - This is the poorest and most deprived class group. People in this group score low for economic, social and cultural factors. They tend to mix socially with people like them. Jobs in this group include cleaner, van driver and care worker. They tend not to have a broad range of cultural interests. People in this group often live in old industrial areas away from urban centres. More than 80% rent their home.

Emergent service workers - This class group is financially insecure with low scores for savings and house value, but high for social and cultural factors. This is the youngest of all the class groups. People in this group have the highest score for emerging culture, which includes going to gigs, using social media and playing sport. They are an urban group, living in inexpensive locations in large cities. They socialise with a broad range of people. Jobs in this group include chefs, nursing auxiliaries and production assistants.

Traditional working class - This class group scores low for economic, social and cultural factors, but they do have some financial security. Many people in this group own their own home. They tend to mix socially with people like themselves. They tend not to enjoy emerging culture, such as going to the gym or using social media. This group has the oldest average age. Jobs in this group include lorry drivers, cleaners and electricians.

New affluent workers - This class group is sociable, has lots of cultural interests and sits in the middle of all the groups in terms of wealth: This youthful class group is economically secure, without being well off. These people have high scores for emerging culture, such as watching sport, going to gigs and using social media. They do not tend to participate in highbrow culture, such as classical music and theatre. People in this group are likely to come from a working class background. Many people in this group live in old manufacturing centres.

Technical middle class - This is a small, distinctive and prosperous new class group. People in this group tend to mix socially with people similar to themselves. They prefer emerging culture, such as using social media, to highbrow culture such as listening to classical music. Many people in this group work in research, science and technical occupations. They tend to live in suburban locations, often in the south east of England. They come from largely middle class backgrounds.

Established middle class - This is the most gregarious and the second wealthiest of all the class groups. People in this group enjoy a diverse range of cultural activities. They socialise with a broad range of people. Many work in management or the traditional professions. Most come from middle class backgrounds. They often live outside urban areas

Elite - This is the wealthiest and most privileged group. They are the biggest earners. They score highest for social, cultural and economic factors. Many went to private school and elite universities - 24% of people in this group were privately educated, far more than in any other class group. This group is exclusive and very hard to join, most come from very privileged backgrounds. 97% of people in this group own their own home.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 02, 2023, 05:13:37 pm
It's funny that you mention that, because I was just about to introduce the term "precariat", but I prefer a somewhat different definition for it. In fact, that whole categorization is deeply flawed - for example, half the people on the up-side who are supposedly "economically secure" are actually drowning in debt and fuel-dependent. Those lives are truly precarious.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on August 02, 2023, 05:58:29 pm
It is aimed at categorizing the UK population in particular, so it probably won't match other countries as well (Massive Student Debt burden is a very American problem, for example).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 02, 2023, 06:54:21 pm
It is aimed at categorizing the UK population in particular, so it probably won't match other countries as well (Massive Student Debt burden is a very American problem, for example).
The lack of property ownership at all income levels, in contrast, seems to be spreading from the UK to the US...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on August 02, 2023, 08:37:51 pm
US rate 65.9% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/184902/homeownership-rate-in-the-us-since-2003/),
UK rate 64.3% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/804446/property-tenure-distribution-in-the-united-kingdom/)

eh, home ownership looks like it's always about equal. UK has gone from a bit higher in 2003 (70.9% vs 68.3%) to a bit lower nowadays but they more or less track out the same trends and within a couple of percentages from each other.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 03, 2023, 12:15:42 am
US rate 65.9% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/184902/homeownership-rate-in-the-us-since-2003/),
UK rate 64.3% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/804446/property-tenure-distribution-in-the-united-kingdom/)

eh, home ownership looks like it's always about equal. UK has gone from a bit higher in 2003 (70.9% vs 68.3%) to a bit lower nowadays but they more or less track out the same trends and within a couple of percentages from each other.
Yes, but when we have them, they're bigger.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 03, 2023, 02:20:29 am
US rate 65.9% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/184902/homeownership-rate-in-the-us-since-2003/),
UK rate 64.3% (https://www.statista.com/statistics/804446/property-tenure-distribution-in-the-united-kingdom/)

eh, home ownership looks like it's always about equal. UK has gone from a bit higher in 2003 (70.9% vs 68.3%) to a bit lower nowadays but they more or less track out the same trends and within a couple of percentages from each other.
Idk what it's like in USA but if you look at home ownership by age it's just all pensioners (https://www.statista.com/statistics/321097/distribution-of-home-owners-in-england-uk-by-type-of-home-financing-and-age/) and working age people do not own homes
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MorleyDev on August 03, 2023, 07:23:52 am
Idk what it's like in USA but if you look at home ownership by age it's just all pensioners (https://www.statista.com/statistics/321097/distribution-of-home-owners-in-england-uk-by-type-of-home-financing-and-age/) and working age people do not own homes

The USA seems to stabilize after you pass the 35+ range instead (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1036066/homeownership-rate-by-age-usa/) of massively spiking.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 03, 2023, 03:30:38 pm
Idk what it's like in USA but if you look at home ownership by age it's just all pensioners (https://www.statista.com/statistics/321097/distribution-of-home-owners-in-england-uk-by-type-of-home-financing-and-age/) and working age people do not own homes

The USA seems to stabilize after you pass the 35+ range instead (https://www.statista.com/statistics/1036066/homeownership-rate-by-age-usa/) of massively spiking.
Those are two different statistics. Loud Whispers has posted a statistic that shows that, surprisingly, people pay off more of their debt over time and therefore have less debt when they're older.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 03, 2023, 04:45:25 pm
Those are two different statistics. Loud Whispers has posted a statistic that shows that, surprisingly, people pay off more of their debt over time and therefore have less debt when they're older.
It is home ownership split by financing, to get the total just add the two together
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 04, 2023, 01:44:37 pm
Those are two different statistics. Loud Whispers has posted a statistic that shows that, surprisingly, people pay off more of their debt over time and therefore have less debt when they're older.
It is home ownership split by financing, to get the total just add the two together
Well yes, but I assumed you wanted to know the split in the US, which obviously the other statistic doesn't provide. If you didn't actually care about that, then, sure, never mind; I just thought that's what you were getting at since it's what you posted.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 10, 2023, 09:09:03 am
Quote
But Wednesday’s move to significantly bump prices, marked an acknowledgment by Iger of the media giant’s intent to squeeze more revenue out of streaming by pushing consumers to the advertising-supported plans, which have proven to be more profitable.

“The advertising marketplace for streaming is picking up,” Iger told investors on the quarterly earnings call. “It’s more healthy than the advertising marketplace for linear television. We believe in the future of advertising on our streaming platforms, both Disney+ and Hulu.”

What a bizarre world.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 10, 2023, 09:14:19 pm
Quote
But Wednesday’s move to significantly bump prices, marked an acknowledgment by Iger of the media giant’s intent to squeeze more revenue out of streaming by pushing consumers to the advertising-supported plans, which have proven to be more profitable.

“The advertising marketplace for streaming is picking up,” Iger told investors on the quarterly earnings call. “It’s more healthy than the advertising marketplace for linear television. We believe in the future of advertising on our streaming platforms, both Disney+ and Hulu.”

What a bizarre world.
I was just about to post that here.
After pouring billions and billions of dollars into constructing supposedly revolutionary streaming platforms, and decimating the business models that had offered the industry stability for decades, the ultimate product looks awfully similar to what companies and consumers were trying to break free from in the first place. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/10/media/disney-plus-streaming-prices-reliable-sources/index.html)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: MrRoboto75 on August 10, 2023, 10:28:24 pm
It was inevitable.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on August 11, 2023, 06:32:39 am
Yeah if you bring back Bob Iger
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 13, 2023, 09:51:49 pm
Lahaina residents worry a rebuilt Maui town could slip into the hands of affluent outsiders (https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-maui-lahaina-housing-prices-shortage-d8902c3ea55a8ec4d9938865f3f749f7)
I think that is good guess...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 14, 2023, 09:12:32 am
I was just about to post that here.
After pouring billions and billions of dollars into constructing supposedly revolutionary streaming platforms, and decimating the business models that had offered the industry stability for decades, the ultimate product looks awfully similar to what companies and consumers were trying to break free from in the first place. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/08/10/media/disney-plus-streaming-prices-reliable-sources/index.html)
Not least to say the practice of spending billions to acquire and produce franchises, whilst simultaneously streamlining all franchises with strict creative control so all media pieces are "modular" and interchangeable with all their media arms (including, painfully enough, the need to make them fit in with their theme park goals), and you get this insane frankenmedia monopoly where they alienate the franchise's original fans by producing an incredibly watered down and generic product that appeals to no one in particular. Which wouldn't be so bad economically if they didn't come with budgets that exceed the economy of entire countries and get pumped out every two months

Lahaina residents worry a rebuilt Maui town could slip into the hands of affluent outsiders (https://apnews.com/article/hawaii-maui-lahaina-housing-prices-shortage-d8902c3ea55a8ec4d9938865f3f749f7)
I think that is good guess...
Sad but true. Disasters like covid or climate change turbocharge the pressures already exerted on powerless communities
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 14, 2023, 05:43:52 pm
Not just disasters....
University of Chicago agrees to pay $13.5 million to students after being accused of participating in a 'price-fixing cartel' with other prestigious schools to limit financial aid (https://www.businessinsider.com/do-i-qualify-for-university-of-chicago-settlement-financial-aid-2023-8?amp)

Key takeaway: The Colleges conspired to keep the poor people out, and their "settlement" only goes to people who got in.

Frankly, I think University of Chicago is only offering a settlement because they want to admit that they're "Just Like Yale".
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 15, 2023, 09:14:22 am
Interesting anecdote: one of my utility companies sent me a notice saying they will no longer accept credit/debit card accounts for auto-pay due to "high costs and other policies of the processing companies."

Have we passed peak credit-card? Or is this just a sign that it's now cheap enough (due to changes in the ACH network/laws) that these companies are doing their own processing?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 15, 2023, 09:19:24 pm
Interesting anecdote: one of my utility companies sent me a notice saying they will no longer accept credit/debit card accounts for auto-pay due to "high costs and other policies of the processing companies."

Have we passed peak credit-card? Or is this just a sign that it's now cheap enough (due to changes in the ACH network/laws) that these companies are doing their own processing?

They're just trying to screw you.

You can dispute the charges with a credit/debit card. But if they're tied into your bank account, you can't do shit when they autocharge you a ton of cash. (It happens)

One of the more milder stories covering the most common issue. (https://www.fox43.com/article/money/consumer/ppl-electric-utilities-pennsylvania-consumer-bills/521-16e74a26-3630-4ec6-acdf-d1c9a951fe3b)

(In the utility's defense, you can dispute the charges even when they're legit with a credit/debit card, and screw the utility company.  Assuming you don't need their electricity next month, or you're in the winter months and a state that doesn't let them disconnect service in winter months. Example (https://liheapch.acf.hhs.gov/Disconnect/disconnect.htm#:~:text=Gas%20and%20electric%20service%20cannot,%3E95%2C%20or%20medical%20emergency.))
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 17, 2023, 12:46:11 pm
I have to laud your ability to find the absolute worst interpretation of any phenomenon.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 18, 2023, 05:31:40 pm
I have to laud your ability to find the absolute worst interpretation of any phenomenon.
I've been screwed by the electric company. Watch the news, and you'll probably see that I am not the only one.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on August 19, 2023, 09:46:36 pm
The 4 minute Frank Abagnale clip (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ga-M2CpRgY) that explains why credit cards are always better than debit cards.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 20, 2023, 01:02:44 pm
Sorry to hear that you had a poor experience with the utility.  I'm not sure if that's a systematic or special-cause issue though.  I have never been "screwed" by a company - yet.  I might possibly have an issue right now, as it appears I was billed for a service that was never (and isn't planned to be) rendered... and of course the "we charged you for this" was on a Saturday, a day on which their billing office is not open.

Luckily though this is on a credit card, so if they don't reverse the charge I'll dispute it.  But I'll give them a chance Monday when I can actually talk to them.  Note this is for medical though, and that industry is notorious for systematic issues.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 01:07:41 pm
The example EuchreJack gave isn't even a story about someone being screwed by a company, anyway, but, at most, by a law that allows for charges based on estimated usage and not what you actually got. Even then, it'll be corrected for on the first bill after they can actually check the meter anyway, so it's not actually a big deal.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 20, 2023, 01:13:57 pm
The example EuchreJack gave isn't even a story about someone being screwed by a company, anyway, but, at most, by a law that allows for charges based on estimated usage and not what you actually got. Even then, it'll be corrected for on the first bill after they can actually check the meter anyway, so it's not actually a big deal.
This is only true if you have enough money in your bank account to cover the overcharge, and you do NOT have anything that you urgently need to purchase with those funds. In my case, I got hit with a $2000 auto-deduction from my account. Thankfully, I had slightly more than that, and a secondary account to pay other expenses. I'm not sure most people would have been so well-off...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 01:15:20 pm
This is only true if you have enough money in your bank account to cover the overcharge, and you do NOT have anything that you urgently need to purchase with those funds. In my case, I got hit with a $2000 auto-deduction from my account. Thankfully, I had slightly more than that, and a secondary account to pay other expenses. I'm not sure most people would have been so well-off...
I mean, yeah, if you're going to allow bills to be paid out of your account without even knowing what they are first, then yes, you're going to need a considerable emergency fund to cover it. But that's the breaks.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 20, 2023, 01:17:31 pm
Interesting anecdote: one of my utility companies sent me a notice saying they will no longer accept credit/debit card accounts for auto-pay due to "high costs and other policies of the processing companies."

Have we passed peak credit-card? Or is this just a sign that it's now cheap enough (due to changes in the ACH network/laws) that these companies are doing their own processing?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 01:22:28 pm
Credit or debit card autopay has just the same problems, although the credit card one at least means you don't need to pay it off right now, if you're the kind of freak who carries a balance. Disputing the charges isn't a solution because the charges are entirely legit and legal. You'll need to have a bigger emergency fund no matter what, because you've agreed to pay a bill without knowing what it will even be.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 20, 2023, 01:42:17 pm
So with my autopays - I get my bill before the withdraw date.  So I have an opportunity to call the billing department before the withdrawal.  Something like a $2000 electric bill would immediately be a red flag - that's more than I spend in a year.

Are your auto-pay systems not set up that way?  It shouldn't be possible to get charged before you know how much it will cost, even for "pay as billed" accounts.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 20, 2023, 04:43:08 pm
So with my autopays - I get my bill before the withdraw date.  So I have an opportunity to call the billing department before the withdrawal.  Something like a $2000 electric bill would immediately be a red flag - that's more than I spend in a year.

Are your auto-pay systems not set up that way?  It shouldn't be possible to get charged before you know how much it will cost, even for "pay as billed" accounts.
Mind you, this was several years ago, so I don't recall ALL the details, but I think the autopay hit about a day after I received the bill.
Not expecting to get screwed, I didn't check the bill IMMEDIATELY. So by the time that I checked, the money was already gone.
...And the Electric Company denied doing anything wrong. It was only about a year later they figured it out, and I got a $2000 credit. And if I didn't have another account with them, what do YOU think would happen?

Credit or debit card autopay has just the same problems, although the credit card one at least means you don't need to pay it off right now, if you're the kind of freak who carries a balance. Disputing the charges isn't a solution because the charges are entirely legit and legal. You'll need to have a bigger emergency fund no matter what, because you've agreed to pay a bill without knowing what it will even be.
If you dispute the charge on a credit card, it becomes the Utility Company's job to Justify it to the Credit Card Company.
It totally changes the rules of the game.

WHY THE FUCK AM I ARGUING WITH YOU TWO ABOUT THIS!?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 04:51:17 pm
If you dispute the charge on a credit card, it becomes the Utility Company's job to Justify it to the Credit Card Company.
It totally changes the rules of the game.

WHY THE FUCK AM I ARGUING WITH YOU TWO ABOUT THIS!?
That doesn't change the rules of the game at all, because the charge in the example is completely legitimate and legal. There is a law saying that they can charge that amount, and then credit your account later if it turns out to have been wrong. The credit card company is going to rubber-stamp it so hard your head will spin and then you still have to figure out how to pay it off.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on August 20, 2023, 05:26:04 pm
No I agree with EJ here - if you don't use a CC, it's a lot more difficult to dispute a charge. The CCs have a much stronger arm to deal with chargebacks or whatever it's called than the average person.  That also sounds like complete trash or corruption that it took a year to get that overcharge corrected.

I can't say I've looked into any laws that "make it legal for companies to overcharge so long as they refund it later."  I suspect there are probably laws that make it look like that, but not carte-blanche, otherwise why wouldn't companies basically just constantly overcharge by $100s, sit on the cash for a year or whatever, and just pay you back the amount with no penalty?  Even if not protected by CC company lawyers, this doesn't happen constantly, which it would if companies could just "overcharge and refund way later" whenever they wanted.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on August 20, 2023, 05:36:33 pm
No I agree with EJ here - if you don't use a CC, it's a lot more difficult to dispute a charge. The CCs have a much stronger arm to deal with chargebacks or whatever it's called than the average person.  That also sounds like complete trash or corruption that it took a year to get that overcharge corrected.

I can't say I've looked into any laws that "make it legal for companies to overcharge so long as they refund it later."  I suspect there are probably laws that make it look like that, but not carte-blanche, otherwise why wouldn't companies basically just constantly overcharge by $100s, sit on the cash for a year or whatever, and just pay you back the amount with no penalty?  Even if not protected by CC company lawyers, this doesn't happen constantly, which it would if companies could just "overcharge and refund way later" whenever they wanted.
No, I'm talking about the specific example EuchreJack cited. An electric company had some kind of technical problem with their meters, so they charged based on estimated usage, which is industry standard. With physical dial meters like we have here, they can even charge estimated usage normally - here, meters are checked every other month, with estimated charges in the off months. Customers then complained that the estimated usage was much higher than their actual usage, but they're allowed to do that, and it's corrected for in the next bill based on actual usage. You won't be able to charge that back.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on August 26, 2023, 11:12:19 pm
It's Slammer Time, Rich Fucker!
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/sanfrancisco/news/tech-company-ceo-sentenced-to-2-years-in-prison-for-conspiracy-tax-violation-charges/ (https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/sanfrancisco/news/tech-company-ceo-sentenced-to-2-years-in-prison-for-conspiracy-tax-violation-charges/)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: hector13 on September 09, 2023, 03:15:13 pm
Stealing $3 million still probably gets you less time in jail than shoplifting goods at a fraction of that amount.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 09, 2023, 04:18:54 pm
Stealing $3 million still probably gets you less time in jail than shoplifting goods at a fraction of that amount.
I'm just glad the Sackler bankruptcy got overturned. It wouldn't make sense for people to get killed over dealing grams of weed whilst a cartel dealing in billions of opiate pills got off free
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on September 10, 2023, 05:01:26 am
Stealing $3 million still probably gets you less time in jail than shoplifting goods at a fraction of that amount.
I'm just glad the Sackler bankruptcy got overturned. It wouldn't make sense for people to get killed over dealing grams of weed whilst a cartel dealing in billions of opiate pills got off free
Er, you might want to put away the champagne. I'm reasonably sure the Supreme Court is hearing the case so they can expand Bankruptcy Protection to more Ultra-rich people. Or maybe they're fishing for more bribe money, it's hard to tell with the Supreme Court...
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 10, 2023, 06:31:11 am
This is veering a bit from economics into politics… unless we are talking about tax theory or the economics of corruption, sounds like this topic is for Ameripol or the SCOTUS thread.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 10, 2023, 07:02:59 am
Er, you might want to put away the champagne. I'm reasonably sure the Supreme Court is hearing the case so they can expand Bankruptcy Protection to more Ultra-rich people. Or maybe they're fishing for more bribe money, it's hard to tell with the Supreme Court...
>:[

Maybe this is another Trump legacy feature
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Great Order on September 18, 2023, 08:29:45 pm
Since this is *the* economics thread, what economics do you guys prescribe to? Like, I consider myself a market socialist, I'm not exactly big into the whole "A handful of guys owns a not-insignificant fraction of global economic output" idea, but at the same time between the failures of state-owned economies and the fact that it simply moves the power from capitalists to government (Which is historically authoritarian in these countries), it feels like the best compromise, especially with regulation. It's also a system people are mostly familiar with, since there's still regular market forces at work.

I'm just curious what kind of mix we've got here, and the reasons for them.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: hector13 on September 18, 2023, 09:36:17 pm
Hang the CEOs.

Can’t trust private enterprise to have society’s best interests at its heart, but it does allow for innovation. Infrastructure should be run by government entities - and what counts as infrastructure should be regularly evaluated - and private enterprise needs to be regulated quite a lot to discourage them from being proper dickheads to their employees and/or customers.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on September 19, 2023, 07:45:59 am
Eh, treatment of CEOs is a political view though, isn't it?  ;)

I don't know how to class myself economically. I'm a "first principles" person: wealth is manufacturing and agriculture and education, everything else is value trades.

"All else equal" is rarely reality.

Supply and demand rule.

You can't fix shortages with money alone (it only works if the change in where money is increases production or gets produce where it's needed).

Money is useful, but is easily abused because it doesn't obey physical laws (like manufacturing and agriculture).

Rent Seeking and artificial scarcity are Bad Things™.

Real profit is doing more with less input, not just having a bigger bank account. (Macro profit vs micro profit).

Wealth is absolute, value is relative.

Unrealized income is not a loss. (You cannot lose more than you spent.)

Money isn't the only way to measure value.

People (in aggregate) are bad at evaluating future impact of present transactions.

Don't pay two sandwiches today to get one sandwich in the future.

Stuff like that.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 20, 2023, 08:59:57 am
Unrealized income is not a loss. (You cannot lose more than you spent.)
-Disney says unrealised income is loss
-Every time you pirate a movie Disney loses $20 potential revenue
-Make 100 copies of a movie
-Disney loses $2000
-Repeat until Disney dies
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Strongpoint on November 29, 2023, 09:30:33 am
Union leaders in Argentina’s aviation industry have said they will fiercely resist incoming President Javier Milei’s plans to privatise the state airline, in an early sign of the tumultuous relationship the libertarian is expected to have with the country’s powerful labour movement.

Following his victory in a presidential run-off vote on Sunday, Milei said he aimed to hand over shares in Argentina’s state-owned airline Aerolíneas Argentinas to its workers and reduce the state funding on which it relies.

“If he wants to take Aerolíneas, he will have to kill us,” said Pablo Biró, leader of Argentina’s airline pilots’ union, on Wednesday. “And when I say kill, I mean literally: he will have to take dead bodies and I’ll sign up first.”

The hard-left Unidad Piquetera social movement has announced plans to lead a march through downtown Buenos Aires on Thursday to oppose Milei’s austerity plans, while its leaders will meet to co-ordinate a “battle plan” for the coming months.


I find it absolutely hilarious when an anarcho-capitalist wants to transfer the ownership from the state to the workers and socialists scream - "over our dead bodies!"
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: hector13 on November 29, 2023, 10:33:19 am
The airline was nationalized in ‘08, and hasn’t made a profit since. It’s projected to lose more than $100 million this year, and improvement over last years losses of ~$250 million.

Privatizing it will cost jobs, benefits, working conditions, and the consumer as they cut unprofitable routes.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Strongpoint on November 29, 2023, 12:21:46 pm
I understand why they don't want it. I still find it hilarious that state capitalism with subsidies is better for the socialist union in question than owning means of production and taking responsibility for it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: anewaname on November 29, 2023, 01:04:13 pm
...

I find it absolutely hilarious when an anarcho-capitalist wants to transfer the ownership from the state to the workers and socialists scream - "over our dead bodies!"
Consider what happened when the USSR dissolved and businesses became "privately owned"... The bulk of the workers lost out greatly and only a few people gained wealth. The Argentinian workers realize that this would happen to them as well.

The airline was nationalized in ‘08, and hasn’t made a profit since. It’s projected to lose more than $100 million this year, and improvement over last years losses of ~$250 million.

Privatizing it will cost jobs, benefits, working conditions, and the consumer as they cut unprofitable routes.

Wasn't it nationalized because privatization failed? Even though the nationalized airline operates at a loss, how much does the overall economy benefit from a stable and safe airline system? It is likely that there would be more benefit to staying nationalized, but to find the places where politicians were involved in establishing contracts for supplies and infrastructure maintenance (the less safety-vital aspects of these contracts), and to seek competition.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on November 29, 2023, 01:19:45 pm
This is all just an artifact of forcing companies to keep their profits and losses "scoped" to their company.  If a company like an airline could treat the benefits to society as its own gain, even if it was spending more money than it made, then that value could be treated as profit due to that company.

Basically this is externalized profit, which is the oft-neglected twin of externalized costs.  That is, benefits to society not realized by the companies or individuals providing them, just as there are costs to society not realized by the companies or individuals incurring them.

Until we figure out a way to account for these costs and benefits other than money flow, we'll continue to have this situation.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Strongpoint on November 29, 2023, 01:41:16 pm
Quote from: anewaname
Consider what happened when the USSR dissolved and businesses became "privately owned"... The bulk of the workers lost out greatly and only a few people gained wealth. The Argentinian workers realize that this would happen to them as well.
Yes, but in the post-USSR no one transferred anything directly to workers. (at least in Ukraine) There were privatization certificates but they didn't work in this way.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 22, 2024, 10:57:56 am
I am seeing more articles lately about how renting is more affordable than trying to save and buying a house.

In an inflationary environment, I don't understand this line of thinking.  If you can manage to buy a house, any house, how is that long-term not a better use of money? Granted that's a big "if" and a challenge for many individuals.

Given: buying a house (at least in the US) locks in your payments for as much as 30 years. This part of your housing cost is therefore immune from inflation.  Only potentially taxes, utilities, insurance, and repairs are subject to inflation.

How can renting, which can have prices increase faster than inflation every year, be better than trying to own?

What am I missing?  Is the problem really just the up-front cost?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: hector13 on January 22, 2024, 02:44:05 pm
I think house buying is at the lowest rate for the last 30 years in the US.

If my house value is anything to go by, I can see why.

We got a home equity loan to cover some home improvements, and the house had increased in value by 50% in about 3.5 years, despite the only addition at that point being guttering.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 22, 2024, 03:14:53 pm
But that's exactly what I mean - if you can actually buy a house - it's way better than renting, isn't it?

I mean if home values go up, but you have a fixed mortgage (and why wouldn't you!?), then in inflation-adjusted terms you are paying less and less per month for an appreciating asset.

If you are paying rent - you are likely paying increasing amounts of cash with no asset accrual.  I mean unless your area literally has no available homes to buy, and no land to buy to build-to-suit, I can't imagine how renting is better than buying.

I mean isn't that one of the pillars of how younger generations are getting systemically harmed, because there is no available equity to buy, and the property owners are extracting rents instead?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Criptfeind on January 22, 2024, 03:23:30 pm
We can't see the vague "articles" you're talking about, so there could be an issue with communication here. But "more affordable" doesn't mean "better" and from just what you've said it sounds like they say the first but then you're wondering why they are saying the second.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on January 22, 2024, 04:15:15 pm
But that's exactly what I mean - if you can actually buy a house - it's way better than renting, isn't it?

I mean if home values go up, but you have a fixed mortgage (and why wouldn't you!?), then in inflation-adjusted terms you are paying less and less per month for an appreciating asset.

If you are paying rent - you are likely paying increasing amounts of cash with no asset accrual.  I mean unless your area literally has no available homes to buy, and no land to buy to build-to-suit, I can't imagine how renting is better than buying.

I mean isn't that one of the pillars of how younger generations are getting systemically harmed, because there is no available equity to buy, and the property owners are extracting rents instead?

Because you have to pay a mortgage on said house. That's why renting is becoming the cheaper option.

It comes down to the interest rate you secured. If you secured an interest rate below 5% (let's just say) your monthly payments for your mortgage, insurance and utilities comes out to about the same as renting.

When you secured a rate above 5%, now your monthly payments really start to balloon when combined with the vastly overpriced houses. Look up the term "house poor." It means you own a house but the payments are crushing you and you're barely making ends meet. For reference, last year rates peaked at around 7.5% and averaged like 6.7% or so.

Everyone that financed at below 5% who says they don't understand why people can't afford homes can go suck all the dicks. That includes fucking boomers who wail about having to pay 8% on their *gasp* $25,000 loan in the 70s, like their numbers are even remotely comparable to what's going on now.

And if you think owning a home and watching its value increase means it was worth it.....let me introduce you to all the other home owners sitting on vastly overvalued properties hoping some ignorant first time home buyer is going to come in and make them rich. Your house is worth fuck all if no one is willing to buy it at the price the market says it's worth.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 22, 2024, 04:41:05 pm
Hrm. Perhaps. I'm looking at things like:

this (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/renting-vs-buying-home-cheaper-analysis/)
and
this (https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/09/27/renting-cheaper-than-buying-a-house/70974358007/)

These articles only seem to focus on average (which is skewed by high-cost areas), and they talk about the monthly cost today without talking about how home purchase prices are fixed while rents will likely inevitably increase.  They also don't even mention that you can deduct mortgage interest from taxes but you can't for rent. Even with the silly Trump-era SALT limit of $10k, that will be worth around $150/month in tax reduction (at the 18% tax bracket).  Fix your I-9 and get that money back every month.

Event this one (https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-affordable-buy-rent-premium-prices-mortgage-rates-homeowners-2023-10) makes it sound like buying is worse than renting.

I feel like these articles are stating truths (on average it costs more today in monthly payment terms to buy than rent) but it is talking only about present monthly payments, not total future discounted cost.  The headlines seem to fall into the trap of "monthly payments are all that matters" instead of considering other factors.  (Note: I totally agree that if you can't afford a house payment, then don't over-extend to do it!)

I dunno I guess I don't see the situation as pessimistic as the mass media; probably because optimism doesn't sell...

EDIT: what do you mean payments start to balloon - once you buy a house, the price you pay per month stays constant until you refinance or move.  Yes payments are higher at 8% than they were at 3%.  And house prices are high because *gasp* people are paying those prices, even at high interest rates!  So clearly people were willing to pay inflated prices.

The *only* time renting is better long-term financially than buying is if rent increases are less than inflation and you are investing the money you aren't spending on a higher-cost mortgage in something that makes returns higher than the rate of inflation (and higher than the rate of appreciation of a house, had you bought it).

Note I'm making a distinction between long-term and short-term; yes going house-poor is not wise. But if you can buy a house - any house pretty much - you are historically better off. About the only time that doesn't work if you get unlucky and are trying to sell a house during a recession or other period when there is a glut of housing supply.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on January 22, 2024, 05:10:08 pm
Quote
what do you mean payments start to balloon - once you buy a house, the price you pay per month stays constant until you refinance or move.

I mean the payments on $100k loan at 4% are very different than a $100k loan at 6.5%.

Quote
And house prices are high because *gasp* people are paying those prices, even at high interest rates!  So clearly people were willing to pay inflated prices.

Yes, "people." Ie, corporations with bottomless pockets, home speculators and the like. Don't mistake homes getting bought as a reflection of what the average American can do. Part of the increase in housing prices was people sitting on inventory reducing availability to artificially drive up the price.

Let's put it another way though. Poll anyone that has bought a house in the last 5 years and ask them how much money their family/parents had to kick in. That should tell you everything you need to know. (Spoiler: both my brother and my cousin needed family money to get the homes they wanted. They'll act like they did it with their bootstraps but I know the amount of money they needed to make that happen.)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 22, 2024, 07:39:00 pm
Ok then I will happily hold on to my house and be as secure in my housing as you can be, plus not having to worry about by rent increasing.  Sure I could lose my job, but that risk is the same regardless of rent vs buy, unless you actually own a house outright.

Due to inflation and promotions, my mortgage and property tax has dropped from 15% of my household gross income to 6% of my gross income in the past 10 years.  I can't imagine if I was renting that my non-variable housing cost would have been cut in half in real terms in the past 10 years.

This is what I mean by buying being better than renting.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: nenjin on January 22, 2024, 08:24:27 pm
Did you need family help to afford your home?
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on January 22, 2024, 08:59:30 pm
No, and I don't know anyone who has either, although I understand that's anecdotal and not data.

I even put almost 20% down for this, my first house, I couldn't quite do it, but was able able to refinance 4 years into the 30 year term and get rid of PMI because at that point I was below 80% LTV.  (PMI is such a scam... not only do lenders want a risk premium in the interest rate, they want additional "insurance" not paid by them, but paid by the borrower!  So trust me I'm aware of the nasty systematic issues associated with homeownership).
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 25, 2024, 06:51:45 am
This is all just an artifact of forcing companies to keep their profits and losses "scoped" to their company.  If a company like an airline could treat the benefits to society as its own gain, even if it was spending more money than it made, then that value could be treated as profit due to that company.

Basically this is externalized profit, which is the oft-neglected twin of externalized costs.  That is, benefits to society not realized by the companies or individuals providing them, just as there are costs to society not realized by the companies or individuals incurring them.

Until we figure out a way to account for these costs and benefits other than money flow, we'll continue to have this situation.
This is the principle behind having public roads and national health services. In times of yore in the UK you used to have loads of privately maintained roads with toll gates to pay for the upkeep of certain bridges and roads. But by nationalising this service and allowing everyone to use the roads, commerce exploded and the public benefit more than paid for itself. Same deal with public healthcare; people in good health pay taxes and get work done, and a strong public healthcare system facilitates even more profitable private healthcare research. Similar things could be said for good port infrastructure, good passenger rail at cheap prices, good internet infrastructure and availability. If you want to go one step further, I find it very funny that in the UK our Tories are ardent free market disciples and would swear by Adam Smith as their Lord and Saviour. Yet Adam Smith will tell them the best economic system is one in which a free peoples possessed of capital are able to allocate their own labour and capital in accordance with their own will. So naturally the conservatives endeavour to create consolidated markets and slash the social protections which allow free peoples to build up the savings which become their future investment capital. It's terrible now that young people in this country start at the bottom of the career ladder already crippled by debt, all of their surplus capital siphoned off by rising costs and excessive rents. Especially since much of these costings like energy bills or rents do not circulate into very productive endeavours at all, resulting in an extraction of real value, not a production of real value

Also the Argentinian protests got me surprised. (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/24/traitor-thousands-strike-against-argentinas-president-javier-milei) Like I get the people who never voted for him and never supported him protesting. But the rest, who did vote for him but are now shocked he wants to privatise the airlines. You elect a far right libertarian called the chainsaw man who says he's going to privatise everything and then get mad when he starts privatising everything. He didn't keep it secret that he intended to turn Argentina's economy into a mad max experiment. It's like when all the French voted for Macron when he said he was going to crush the labour unions and then started rioting in the streets when Macron tried to crush the labour unions. They're not keeping their ambitions secret ???
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on April 15, 2024, 06:51:26 pm
I read an interesting article about the funding of the gaming industry.
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/latoya-peterson-studios-are-at-the-mercy-of-this-house-of-cards-that-is-the-funding-system-that-weve-built (https://www.gamesindustry.biz/latoya-peterson-studios-are-at-the-mercy-of-this-house-of-cards-that-is-the-funding-system-that-weve-built)

To answer the article's question as to why movies have more diverse funding, I think it is because gaming is still heavily stigmatized. At least in the United States, I would be quite surprised to hear Government Funding of any kind going towards production of a video game.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Frumple on April 15, 2024, 08:30:22 pm
You actually do see smaller scale games get gov't funding stateside fairly regularly, usually through education-related arts programs. There's not a lot of money going towards devs from that sector, but it's not zero, either.

There's also stuff like America's Army (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America%27s_Army), for more directly funded efforts. So... be surprised, I guess, ha.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on April 15, 2024, 08:38:32 pm
I don’t know that the government should be “the investor of last resort” for video games. It’s tricky though, because Art is often not all that profitable in the business sense, but it is good for society. So it hinges on the extent to which games are Art, versus just unsuccessful or likely-to-be unsuccessful business ventures.

I can’t say I know the right amount of public spending for things like this… and even if you know the right amount, how do you pick who among the many requesters, gets the grants?

Maybe we should ask the AI…  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on April 15, 2024, 08:42:50 pm
I don’t know that the government should be “the investor of last resort” for video games. It’s tricky though, because Art is often not all that profitable in the business sense, but it is good for society. So it hinges on the extent to which games are Art, versus just unsuccessful or likely-to-be unsuccessful business ventures.

I can’t say I know the right amount of public spending for things like this… and even if you know the right amount, how do you pick who among the many requesters, gets the grants?

Maybe we should ask the AI…  ;D
Is it more moral that the government be "the investor of last resort" for movies?

But realistically, envisioning funding for video games would follow the paths of the movies.  It's more grants, non-for-profits, and educational institutions, which get some or all of their funding from The Government.  Not a check directly from Uncle Sam.

A failed example is Unclaimed World.  They had to change their name to get their government's funding, then never finished the game.  Don't be them. It would have been a cool game if they finished it.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on April 17, 2024, 01:21:03 pm
I've been mulling on this... I don't think it's a moral question?  I thought I hinted at it by saying "assuming you are going to spend $X public dollars on 'art', how do you decide who gets it" - maybe we're saying the same thing?

Unrelated: IMF is saying that world government debt to GDP is now approaching 1:1.  I'm not sure how this is possible other than in the bizarre world of finance.  It seems odd that you can have the entire world population in debt to itself for the entire annual output of the world.  Seems like a bookkeeping issue  :P

(Yes I know that's not how sovereign debt works, or debt in general, but it's an amusing thought process.)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on April 17, 2024, 02:49:20 pm
Unrelated: IMF is saying that world government debt to GDP is now approaching 1:1.  I'm not sure how this is possible other than in the bizarre world of finance.  It seems odd that you can have the entire world population in debt to itself for the entire annual output of the world.  Seems like a bookkeeping issue  :P

(Yes I know that's not how sovereign debt works, or debt in general, but it's an amusing thought process.)
Because it's not "the entire world population in debt to itself", it's the set of world governments in debt to big bankers. :P

At some point, there will be a default. This is why the big push for perpetual bonds, for example.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on April 18, 2024, 11:54:05 am
Remember: *Banks don't lose money*, but rather *people* lose money. The banks make damn sure of that.

Then again, King of France and Knights Templar.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on April 18, 2024, 02:54:58 pm
Banks (and governments) are people though... and banks definitely can lose money *cough* 2007 *cough*.

Anyway, that said, there is precedent for loaning people amounts larger than their annual income; this happens often for mortgages for example.

Most of this is just a rambling, I-don't-really-have-a-point-to-make observation that I find sovereign debt, the notion of debt in general, and debt financing to be an interesting construct.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on April 18, 2024, 05:26:17 pm
Actually, a 1:1 ratio of yearly earnings to earning capacity is fair normal? Like, it is an ideal ratio for college graduates, for example.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on April 18, 2024, 07:23:11 pm
Wow, no wonder people are screaming about how hard it is to repay college loans these days.  When I graduated, I felt I was pushing my limits with my loan-to-income ratio of only 50% - but it was at an interest rate of 6.5%, so I have no tears for those screaming about the interest rates a few years ago.

I can accept having a mortgage at more than income, since a house is (generally) an appreciating asset and is at least collateral for the loan; something like a college loan or government loans, though, doesn't really have collateral, so one would think the acceptable loan-to-income ratio should be much less than 100%.

Then again, I'm a "true" fiscal conservative, in that I am risk averse with my money (and I don't have the huge investment returns to prove it!) and don't think that productivity magically grows on trees; I believe that true wealth is in being robust to productivity shocks (weather, politics, disease, famine, accident, etc.), not merely being able to make more revenue.  After all, the biggest bank account in the world doesn't do much good if you have no food to eat.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: zhijinghaofromchina on April 19, 2024, 10:30:29 am
Wow, no wonder people are screaming about how hard it is to repay college loans these days.  When I graduated, I felt I was pushing my limits with my loan-to-income ratio of only 50% - but it was at an interest rate of 6.5%, so I have no tears for those screaming about the interest rates a few years ago.

To me , it might be strange to hear about the college loan , my college tuition fee is about 1000 dollars per year , with 100 dollars more for the dormitory fee , my family is not rich, but they can still afford it .
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on April 19, 2024, 10:42:20 am
Interesting - rather than "about 1000 dollars per year", what is it in terms of hours of minimum wage where you are? Or in terms of, how does "100 dollars per month" compare to say your monthly rent/house payment, or how much groceries for a month typically cost?  How does "1000 dollars a year" compare to a starting salary once you'd graduate?  (When I graduated college, my starting salary for one year was basically the cost of two years of my college; That is, my private college cost about $25000 a year*, and my first salary after graduating was about $50000/year.)

I never like simple currency conversion; I prefer comparing to actual cost of living things.

For example, where I live and my family situation, our housing costs (house payment, utilities) costs about 2.5x what we spend on groceries for my family.

Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Duuvian on May 03, 2024, 01:29:49 am
An oil industry executive has been banned from joining the board of ExxonMobil after a merger with the company he headed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/02/oil-boss-driving-up-petrol-prices-colluding-rivals/

Spoiler: From the article (click to show/hide)
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 03, 2024, 10:14:28 pm
An oil industry executive has been banned from joining the board of ExxonMobil after a merger with the company he headed.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/02/oil-boss-driving-up-petrol-prices-colluding-rivals/

Spoiler: From the article (click to show/hide)
Clearly, the FTC does not understand the role of oil industry executives. It seems to me that he's quite qualified for the role!
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 03, 2024, 10:18:46 pm
And now, for the Ultimate Shareholder Meeting. (https://www.investors.com/research/berkshire-hathaway-stock-buy-now-warren-buffett-stock/)

Warren Buffett announces his successor is...a complete and utter nobody. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Abel) And a Canadian.

When you realize Whinny Busser's job is to be Business's hypeman, this is bad. They're already loosing ground. I would be surprised if Berkshire Hathaway survived his death.

In fact, they haven't been as successful in the last few years as their phenomenal growth in the past, and their current decisions are actually mildly questionable.

50% in Apple stock is a clear failure to diversify.
Buying Bank of America, who has perhaps the MOST commercial real estate exposure is just stupid, although they're arguing the bank least likely to overall die.
A Mystery Bank Acquisition? GET OUT NOW!!!!

Most telling, Institutional investment is down.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 03, 2024, 11:54:54 pm
Actually, I don't know Jack about the bullshit that keeps our economy "going".

There are less jobs available than expected. So now, markets are UP because the markets are hoping this will cause the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner. (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/03/investing/us-markets-jobs-report-reaction) Which is stupid, since the Federal Reserve was fairly clear about their desire NOT to cut the rate in 2024.

It's quite awful to think about it further. More people unemployed and less job opportunities for the average worker is GOOD so that shitbag companies and shittier banks can borrow money cheaper to throw more gasoline on the stock market.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on May 04, 2024, 11:41:13 am
It's not that hard to understand really.

High employment growth rate and low unemployment is a wage growth pressure, which can sustain inflation: if you give people more money to spend, without increasing production, then prices are likely to increase (or stay high, if they are already high).

Cheap debt is also a pressure for increasing inflation, because if there is more money flowing around, then, again, without an increase in production then prices will increase (all else equal).

The difficulty the Fed faces is that even wages can be debt-financed.  This means that increasing the cost of borrowing can reduce demand for labor. So the Fed is stuck with a lever that helps achieve one mandate while simultaneously making it more difficult to achieve the other.

As for Wall Street and interest rates, it's more straightforward because there are fewer competing effects: lower interest rates mean both cheaper capital for companies and increased demand for their goods/services, because it's cheaper for customers to finance buying whatever it is that company makes. So this helps companies both on the top and bottom lines: lower costs, higher sales.

What you really want as a lever to help with inflation, but not as adversely impact inflation, is a way to increase supply of goods so that you have "enough goods chasing the money" instead of "too few goods chasing too much money".

This can't easily be done with just financial tools though. Part of the difficulty is that in a physical universe, it's not always easy to just increase production, or some unexpected event disrupts production, or some event causes a massive demand spike (e.g., some popular person says to go buy This Brand thing, so demand suddenly spikes), etc.  Because companies (and all of society, generally) is incentivized to operate with as little spare capacity as possible (because that's lost profits, yo!), any disruption easily limits supply.

One easily-comprehended option would be to have strategic reserves not just of a few commodities but as many commodities as possible. Why not a strategic milk reserve, or egg reserve, or tennis shoe reserve, etc.  If you have a store of goods, then it's easy to see that this smooths out any sudden supply (or demand!) changes.  With modern just-in-time systems, the buffer is essentially nonexistent, which can often lead to instabilities.  At the very least the US tax code could change so it doesn't penalize companies from holding inventory like it does today.

That's just the basic economic / controls system theory though - it doesn't even get into the political aspects (which I want to avoid in this thread) where some institutions want there to be instability.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: zhijinghaofromchina on May 06, 2024, 09:44:15 am
Interesting - rather than "about 1000 dollars per year", what is it in terms of hours of minimum wage where you are? Or in terms of, how does "100 dollars per month" compare to say your monthly rent/house payment, or how much groceries for a month typically cost?  How does "1000 dollars a year" compare to a starting salary once you'd graduate?  (When I graduated college, my starting salary for one year was basically the cost of two years of my college; That is, my private college cost about $25000 a year*, and my first salary after graduating was about $50000/year.)

I never like simple currency conversion; I prefer comparing to actual cost of living things.

For example, where I live and my family situation, our housing costs (house payment, utilities) costs about 2.5x what we spend on groceries for my family.

Spoiler: * (click to show/hide)

As you can say I Live in a barrack-like dormitory , 6 boys sharing one small room , so the rent or house payment is very very low. about 220 dollars per year . And the cost of daily groceries is about 220 dollars per month . Scolorships are for the guys who rank high in the GPA , it's hard to get one . After I get my bachelor's degree, it's hard for me to get a job due to the economic situation and the university major I choose , I must get a master degree, and starting salary for one year after I get my master degree is about 22000 dollars after tax per year , it can easily afford my bachelor's degree.

Haha, now I am a littel envy about the high salary you get .  :P
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 12, 2024, 10:08:28 pm
For those who don't know, this (https://fortune.com/2024/05/12/housing-market-crisis-us-vs-japan-vacant-homes-abandoned-properties/) is our future in the United States. If you can hold out, and save, the housing crisis will fix itself, and swing the other way.

Our crisis is too many Boomers sitting in their homes. That ain't gonna last forever.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 13, 2024, 10:32:45 am
For those who don't know, this (https://fortune.com/2024/05/12/housing-market-crisis-us-vs-japan-vacant-homes-abandoned-properties/) is our future in the United States. If you can hold out, and save, the housing crisis will fix itself, and swing the other way.

Our crisis is too many Boomers sitting in their homes. That ain't gonna last forever.
This is a common misconception based on a false assumption about population dynamics. The US population is projected to continue expanding until nearly the end of the century, and quite possibly longer. Japan's has been falling for over a decade to reach this point (falling significantly faster than the US population is projected to even after the turning point), and they have extremely low immigration. As "Boomers" die or otherwise vacate their houses, there will be - already are - "too many Gen Xers" ready to snap the properties up, followed by "too many Millennials", and so on. The Japanese dynamics don't apply because there's no point, at least for a very long time, when the pressure actually relaxes.

ETA: Not to mention that, under current law in most major cities and heavily populated areas, the deck is hugely stacked to favor renting, so newly vacated homes are more likely to be bought by large corporate property managers and refitted into shoebox apartments, a fate from which they will never return.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on May 13, 2024, 11:36:41 am
It's also too easy to think that "the US" is a homogenous situation - making a statement about the housing markets and population as a US aggregate number hides a lot of detail behind averaging effects.

It's much more interesting looking at differences between urban, suburban, and rural areas; trends in specific states, etc.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 13, 2024, 11:50:08 am
Well, there is still a gestalt, and seeing that gestalt isn't the same thing as assuming the US is homogeneous - the gestalt is built out of all the little effects that you must understand to understand the gestalt fully. A hopelessly detailed analysis which ends up saying nothing useful is another failure mode, so I'd caution going too far in either direction. But yes, there are definitely interesting things going on at those scales, like the decline of certain major cities.

The collapse of the commercial real estate market also represents a huge opportunity to realign the housing market if we're, as a people, willing to accept certain drawbacks.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: EuchreJack on May 13, 2024, 10:55:43 pm
I would like to see more population studies. The only one I saw was a clear Government Propaganda piece. It said "and only in 2024 do we expect a very high number of immigrants." How exactly do they see that magic happening?  ???

But yes, I am genuinely interested in reviewing population studies.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: McTraveller on May 15, 2024, 09:39:34 am
People are still confused about inflation.

Simple example: "record corporate profits are a sign of greedflation!"

But if you had constant inflation, and basically stable corporate performance, every single year would have record profits ... in nominal terms.

I haven't seen many reports on if we experiencing record nominal profit, or if we are experiencing record profit margins.  The latter is the one that could indicate price gouging, not the former.  Although in fact you'd probably have to look at both nominal and margin to get a clear picture; profit margins (and nominal increase) can also occur without a change in total company revenue due to efficiency gains.
Title: Re: Armchair Economics Thread - Re-Resurrection
Post by: Maximum Spin on May 15, 2024, 11:03:09 am
Oh yeah, that one drives me up the wall. Even in the absence of efficiency gains that you mention, increasing real profit margins still aren't indicative of "price gouging", which is basically impossible to prove in a restricted, not fully competitive market. Stagflationary conditions could generate increasing real profit margins, as inflation becomes more "cost-push"-like and prices scale proportionally to the change in materials costs, while a stagnating labor market holds labor costs back from growing to the same proportion. It's pretty easy to see that any situation where inflation is highly uneven, so some costs are growing enough to drive price increases while others are not, can lead to the same outcome. After all, since the economy is tightly connected and cost increases "reflect" all throughout it, it would be natural for prices to rise proportionally to large cost increases and not necessarily the average price increase overall - everyone's got to cover that new cost, including the places the profit goes.

ETA: Let me expand on that because I think it's something people often miss. Suppose you own a business selling boutique popup bodegas or something. Suppose that fuel costs went up 10%. Now, your own business fuel costs, of course, go up 10%. But on top of that, you yourself drive to work every day, and you also like to eat food which was brought in by trucks that use fuel (and prepared by people who also drive to work every day, and also eat food), and you get parcels delivered by truck when you shop online, and, and, and... so you need to cover your own costs increases too; if you only raise prices enough to cover the costs to your business, your own standard of living falls. You need to increase prices enough that your profit pays for all your cost increases, even if only a relatively small part of your business expenses are exposed to the price of fuel so those costs went up by less than 10% overall. And then your own price increase affects the expenses of everyone who buys from you. Because everything depends on everything else, the overall cost increase in the economy ends up approximating that 10% for everyone, even though not everything is fuel. End ETA.

The idea of sustained, coordinated economy-wide "price gouging" was always a silly fantasy anyway... if "greedflation" were a thing, the money would end up flowing to large institutional banks overall, not the kind of corporations we do everyday business with. Certainly, they get richer no matter what, but that's indistinguishable from any other kind of inflation - it's a Cantillon effect. In any case, in my opinion, the federal reserve data pretty clearly destroys the "greedflation" narrative - here's a pertinent document: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/corporate-profits-in-the-aftermath-of-covid-19-20230908.html