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Finally... => Life Advice => Topic started by: TD1 on January 28, 2021, 06:07:45 am

Title: Monies and investment
Post by: TD1 on January 28, 2021, 06:07:45 am
Hey all.

I have a fair sum saved but bank interest is terrible. I was wondering if there was a way to improve my gains. So I looked into stock investment, which is largely above my head. In so doing, however, I learned about robo-advisors, which seem to be algorithms which invest your money for you at a percentage fee (say 0.5%).

I'm always suspicious of a silver bullet, though. Does anyone know if it's a good idea?
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: dragdeler on January 28, 2021, 08:00:00 am
Hey what about JoshuaFM he had basically the same thread :P, from what I gather the most conservative strategy is just to own a bunch of stock of companies you trust to never going bankrupt hold on and thereby bet on growth beating what your money would become in a bank account under inflation, buying a little from time to time. I'm by no means an expert but highly suspicious of what you describe  or any kind of bundled stuff etc. And me personally, I think stocks are all overvalued, but I guess so long as society doesn't fully collapse that's more of a moral judgement than a value assessment.


Anyway I'm just here because I got one simple question: does anybody know (more like have anecdotal advice I guess) how to set up a fun money account? Like where would I need to register to be able to spontaneously dump money from my paypal into real actual stocks from my home computer? (not some fund or some financial product or something like that, real stock)


I've regretted a few times not be in a position to make small experiments when the time was right.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: nenjin on January 28, 2021, 11:05:12 am
Timing is sus lol
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: TD1 on January 28, 2021, 11:25:20 am
Edit:

Missed drag's comment.

Anyway, I'm gonna do more research myself. Seems to be a huge amount to absorb.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Telgin on January 28, 2021, 12:06:19 pm
My advice, if you just want to get more interest than a bank account and you're okay with the investment potentially losing some value short term, is to buy ETFs or index funds that track the whole US stock market (if you're in the US, change as appropriate).

This has the big advantage that you don't have to pick stocks, so you don't have to guess which ones are going to do well or do any analysis.  It also has the advantage of less volatility.  If you buy Tesla stock today and Elon Musk says something dumb on Twitter that causes its value to tank 20%, you'd be unhappy.  If you buy an ETF or index fund that just includes Tesla stock, you lose only a fraction of what you'd otherwise lose.  On the flip side, if you owned Gamestop stock you'd be making a ton of money right now for dumb reasons, but also would only gain a fraction of that if you owned a fund that included Gamestop stock.

Keep in mind that this is more like retirement investing though, and works best if you plan to leave the investment alone for a few years.  Worst case scenario, you could lose 50% or more if there's a stock market crash, and it may take years to recover, but long term you're (almost) guaranteed to make more than if it's sitting in the bank.

I used to use Robinhhood briefly for stuff like this since it's easy to get started with and lets you deposit money quickly and do (near) instant trades.  Robinhood, however, is really suited to day trading, which this is not.  After I realized I wasn't doing day trading, I switched to using Vanguard to just set it up as an IRA for retirement, and just buy their index funds through it.  Vanguard requires some paperwork and isn't a day trading platform though, so if you plan to buy and sell stocks quickly I don't think I'd recommend it.  I don't have a good suggestion for that, since I'm also not sure how much I trust Robinhood, but they're still around so maybe it's okay.

If you're not okay with losing money short term, then there are a few other options you can look into, like money market accounts or just high interest online savings accounts.  I don't know much about these though, and in particular I'm not positive that money market accounts can't lose money.  They may just be lower volatility than normal stocks.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: TD1 on January 28, 2021, 12:17:11 pm
That's a brilliant answer, thanks very much.

I don't really care about flashy big gains in money. Just making my money work more.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Starver on January 28, 2021, 12:31:12 pm
If this need to 'experiment' in a current trend (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55837519), note that the professionals (and probably the robosellers) were already stung, and the winners in the 'blip' have probably already had the best gains and by this stage you'd be likely to joining the rollercoaster just as it heads back downhill again. (But not likely enough to be able to trust to the non-amateur tips, either. Murphy's Law, etc.)

Especially true if there's illegal price manipulation (some sort of QAnon for the financial markets, sounds like...) or just someone playing with everyone's heads (like some sort of QAnon for the financial markets!) with no personal skin in the game in the first place).



Thought experiment: Choose a random company. Create eight personas in diverse places, especially choosing 'private'/time-limited channels that are hard to pick up later. Casually predict a rise in four, a fall in four. Whatever turns out true, drop out from the mismatched conversations (or use for other trolling purposes) and 'suggest' another result on the remainder (two up, two down). When one turns true, rinse and repeat with the final two channels. By the time you finish, you've got one place where you're officially the Prediction God and most of the rest never realised you were utterly playing it be ear, vis-a-vis your 'incorrect' personae that you carefully didn't make look anything like any of the others, just random peeps. Just think how many 'Q's never survived long enough to influence whole political ideologies

Next..? Well, depends on what you want to do with the high reputation you just mustered. The above was really just the means to some other ultimate end. And surely won't be the only game in town.

(NB. You've probably got to have skill and a bit of luck to do this convincingly, anyway, so anyone who could follow these instructions successfully probably already knows how to do it well/has actually done it. I wouldn't advise you to actually do it based on just reading this summary. Or at all, for obvious reasons.)


That said, I'm sure there's plenty of legit 'live play' share-dealing methods (among an indeterminate number of vanity ones more overbalanced to just help the people who run it). I couldn't tell you which they are, though. In the old days I'd suggest finding a bricks'n'mortar broker you think hasn't anything to hide (suggested by your bank manager, over cocktails?), and not too much comission, but it seems every sixth ad I get served at the moment in one of my network devices is pushing one or other Exchange App, which could include the current best players, and yet I don't know enough about them to even want to touch them with the proverbial bargepole.

Good luck if you do do something. Sorry I'm not (can't be, perhaps shan't be) actually helpful. ((And ninjaed*2, while writing, anyway.))
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: dragdeler on January 28, 2021, 01:31:26 pm
I'd consider the current events a done deal even it probably hasn't played out fully yet. I would however have tried something a year ago when the markets crashed from the rona, if only I knew who to trust, well at least it seems my suspicions are justified, I guess that's some sort of relief over the inaction.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: ChairmanPoo on January 28, 2021, 02:06:28 pm
You should invest all your money in cryptocurrency! Petro (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petro_(cryptocurrency)) is a good choice!
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: TD1 on January 28, 2021, 02:35:38 pm
I only invest money in the Petyr Baelish fund.

Returns always come smelling of perfume for some reason.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Aoi on January 29, 2021, 04:50:04 am
I've got a decent amount of skin in the current events right now, and I'd say that it's definitely not over, though things are reaching a fever pitch. Things are going to go nuclear very soon, for better or for worse.

If you want to passively invest, I'd say to look at the various ETFs out there and pick one that suits your interests... and forget about it unless something comes up in the news that's relevant to it or you want to move it elsewhere.

For active trading, if you're in the US, 25k in your brokerage account is a very important breakpoint: Below that, and you're restricted in the amount of trades you can make in a day, so you're discouraged from making short term, high-volatility plays. I'd suggest doing paper trades, practice trading with fake money, first, so you can get an idea of things work... and it's often a humbling experience that shows you just how bad an idea it is to charge in blindly. On top of stocks, it's slightly more complex, but basic options are also an interesting, fairly low risk, er, option. (Mostly cash-covered puts and covered calls... sometimes known as the wheel.)

Robinhood is pretty much frictionless to get in and start kicking around, even with triple (or even double) digit account sizes, and allows for fast and easy deposits and withdrawals. Due to the January 28 debacle though, I'm actively on my way out the door, so... yeah. (If you have specific RH questions, toss 'em out, and I'll see what I can do.)
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: dragdeler on January 29, 2021, 09:31:47 am
I'd just love to hear what you'll pick over robinhood in the end. Those sorts of platforms aren't ideal but yes it seems to have allmost no barriers of entry.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Jimmy on January 29, 2021, 09:55:43 am
So I'm reposting what I've said before, since it's still relevant.

First, do you have any sources of debt? Student loan, mortgage, credit cards?

If yes, pay them off now. Returns from the stock market aren't likely to be better than the compound interest on your debt.

If you still have savings after this step, what purpose is your savings serving?

Is your savings serving as a backup plan against emergencies?

Is your savings serving as a future deposit for investing in a house to exit the rental market?

If so, don't invest in the stock market. Expect your savings to be tied up in the market for years without seeing anything profit from it. You won't be able to withdraw your savings quickly should you need it urgently, and if you're counting it as a deposit, you might end up with less than you have now, pushing the benefits of gaining a real estate asset further into the future, and all the attendant lost investment potential that causes by continuing to rent instead of own your home.

Finally, assuming you're now in a situation where your excess income isn't being used for anything other than growing a savings account, you can consider investing. Put whatever you have in excess of your needs into a diversified investment fund, and consider focusing on dividend paying shares, reinvesting your returns in continuing to diversify your portfolio.

Looking at current events and riding them is a high risk bet. That's not to say it won't pay off. I mean, if you bought bitcoin in January 2019 and sold it now, you'd have made about 1000% profits on your investment. Or, you might have lost everything if it crashed instead. Putting your eggs all in one basket only works if you can afford to lose your eggs.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: anewaname on January 29, 2021, 07:45:59 pm
I'd "upvote" what Jimmy posted as the first priority, and what Telgin posted as second priority. Of course, buying after the index drops is better than buying before the index drops; and the markets may do strange things with the current political situation...
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Aoi on January 29, 2021, 09:20:53 pm
I'd just love to hear what you'll pick over robinhood in the end. Those sorts of platforms aren't ideal but yes it seems to have allmost no barriers of entry.

The ones riding high on my list right now are Fidelity and Webull.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

-----

Another major question is: How much time do you want to spend to manage your money? I spend a lot of time managing my finances... mostly because I don't work a regular job. If you're up to juggling your finances like mad, there's a lot of subtle ways to squeeze out extra percentage points here and there.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: dragdeler on January 30, 2021, 09:08:49 am
Another major question is: How much time do you want to spend to manage your money?


So... personally I'd only ever have invested when "everything" was really low, like in a real crisis, (something I can afford to loose but a good chunk, in moments when it's like: "yeah obviously they'll be back up if we don't manage to end the world, and if we do I don't need money") I try to have the lowest possible cost of living, put allmost all my money on the side, but then I don't work for years (effectively) and when I'm not I often don't even get any other benefits. If I find a good job I tend to work myself up like 5 or 10k, then just live a few years xD, not exactly everybody's cup of tea. Heavily reliant on my region being super rural, and my family super helpful. In the city I'd be pretty much a homeless person.


But there is a very good chance I'll be sorts of groundkeeper at the local recyclingpark, a job I could even see myself holding, well then I'll have my selfbuilt little computer  on the window perch in my little cabin... and about 6h 6days a week for praxis, or checking stonks every 10 minutes.

I could see myself putting in like 200€ and just watching a bunch of pennystock horseraces during worktimes  :P for as long as I can make it last... I think were I ever to truely invest towards retirement, probably I'd just dedicate a tiny fraction of my income into regularely buying some staple stock, like coca-cola, or well, index funds.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: gimlet on January 30, 2021, 10:58:24 am
The accounts that did the best at one brokerage were the ones where the owners forgot they owned them:
https://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performed-best-2014-9

The overwhelming majority of people are terrible at picking stocks and timing investments.   The most reliable way to make money has been to buy and hold long  term something like index funds that mirror major market indexes.   Keep investing money over time to smooth out dips, don't jump in and out to time the market or catch trends.   It's almost never worth paying any fees for "professional investment advice" or access to "special mutual funds" or funds with high management fees.

The risk with individual stocks, no matter how safe or solid they seem is that something sudden can crash it with little warning.   And if you diversify enough to mitigate that, well, you're pretty much just doing the same thing as an index fund but with a lot more effort.

And yeah making a small "play account" to satisfy the  active trading  urges is a reasonable idea.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: anewaname on January 30, 2021, 05:55:22 pm
Do a google of "nasdaq chart" and you should see a market summary chart for the Nasdaq composite
- click the button labeled Max and take a look at the form of the curve
- click the button labeled 5 Years and take another look at the curve
    - compare the margin of potential profit if you had bought in on Feb 21, 2020 and sold yesterday
    - compare the margin of potential profit if you had bought in on Mar 20, 2020 and sold yesterday

The point of this exercise is to show that if you are currently not vested in the market, it might be beneficial to wait for a significant drop.

There are also other indices worth watching, at google's finance (https://www.google.com/finance) or marketwatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/indices/indices.asp?indexid=1&groupid=37).
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Aoi on January 31, 2021, 06:47:48 am
Okay, the 5-10k then taking a break thing... probably not the greatest idea, if you're looking for stability, but also bad if you're looking for growth. Straight up, gains are typically looked at in terms of percentage, but there's a world of a difference in real world usability between 1% of 100$ and 1% of 1m$. The other thing is that you have a much wider range of options as the amount of money you can put on the table increases.1

In terms of stocks, I'd suggest a (conceptual) mix between stock picking and index funds... the former is a good way to end up supremely twitchy about everything, the latter is a great idea, if you live statistically... which very few of us do. Instead, fall back on the adage of 'Invest in what you know.'2 and temper it with something that's only really come into the limelight in the last 15 years or so: The ETF. Without getting into the specifics, they're like mutual funds in that they're a collection of other investments, but they're easier to work with and more dynamic for the entry-level investor. You can probably find an ETF that fits whatever purposes you want, whether you think there's going to be a return to oil, or frozen orange juice futures are going to spike. A slight word of caution: Know WHY you're investing, and keep that in mind. I know a few people who refuse to touch anything involving marijuana, no matter how lucrative it may be.

Definitely avoid anything with fees if you're doing a managed fund, as gimlet noted. ETFs have their fees baked into how they operate (which does technically mean it's constantly in a race to zero), but they're usually something like .25% a year... as opposed to 1%+ for managed mutual funds. In today's world, there's no reason for a retail investor to be calling up a person and asking for info and having them direct trades at a commission each time.

If you have access to options, those are... interesting. I tend to run godawful boring conservative plays with them that really only run into problems when the bottom drops out of the market without warning3, but they also only generate like 1-2% a week... not sexy, but compare that to a savings account.4 You can also treat them like lottery tickets, if you run them a different way: If you were in on Gamestop on the 22nd, you could've made upwards of 20x on that day alone.5

Spoiler: Footnotes (click to show/hide)

Update: Well, that's kind of a surprise. Webull rejected me.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: dragdeler on January 31, 2021, 08:06:16 am
Okay, the 5-10k then taking a break thing... probably not the greatest idea, if you're looking for stability


Ok total derail. I'm not. Stability is an illusion but time is invaluable since impossible to reimburse. So you guys are giving out great advice but it's kind of ironic it took a crayon eater like me to hear the more strategic stuff. That being said I understand how well I would be off had I just bought normal stuff 20-30 years ago, not to mention what happens when you pick winner tech companies, like buying microsoft in the 80's, apple in the 90's, qualcomm in the early 2000's or even AMD like only 10 years ago.


That being said I might stick "forever" with the job I'm interviewing for tomorrow... It doesn't get much better than that: strong unionisation, public private partnership that can't tank because 55 municipalities want their garbage taken away, automatic pay raises, the customer are not king -> I am the groundkeeper, loads of physical space for social distancing, and I might get stationed 4-5 km from home the best case scenario is super close.
From an ethical standpoint it's a good no capitalististististic bullshit job because garbage needs to be taken away (even though I don't doubt there could be many improvements as to how we recycle).




As I said I might reconsider one day and aim towards some sort of self-retirement with the kind of conservative investment strategies that have been discussed. But I just noticed that by being liquid I'm capable of buying in crisis, when prices are really low. That's different from when I say horseraces I mean conceptually stupid experiments, but didn't monkey investors outperform by picking stocks randomly in that one experiment? Like here is a silly idea I had: pick a hundred different pennystocks at the lowest possible price, I'm talking 0,001-0,1, bet 2 bucks each, never quit unless at 100% profit, take out the double put it in another pennystock -> you have 100 pokemon, they die if a pennystock goes bust, they evolve in spikes, every evolution equals to times two, so let's see how far one could go up the ²  by landing consecutive heads in a figurative coin throw, with a hundred attempts. It definitly is more interesting as a short YT documentary than a real investment strategy, but that's the kind of silly stuff I could see myself micromanaging when bored at work.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: gimlet on January 31, 2021, 09:20:39 am
This is why you have a small amount of money in a "gambling" account, to use up that "I need to pick stocks" energy.   And put the bulk of your money, steadily, over time, into something boring safe and slowly profitable like market index mutual funds.   Trying to time the market even with contrarian "this is a bottom because of a crisis" kind of plays is a limited strategy - what are you doing with your money the rest of time?   The 95% of the time there's not an obvious crisis looming?   Keep it in a ridiculously low yield savings account or cd?  And don't underestimate the amount of energy it takes just to keep up active trading over time, let alone the mental energy to go against current sentiment when you're bombarded from all angles day after day.

I had exactly the same "omg look at the charts, stocks are so overvalued right now" feelings, and kept a lot of money on the sidelines through one of the biggest bull markets of all time when prices kept going up and up from there.   Also you do need to adjust your willingness to take risk for your age - there's a lot more time for a 25 year old to recover from setbacks than if you're about to retire and will probably want to use that money within 10 years.

Read things like "the Millionaire Next Door".  Try to set up something like automatic withdrawls from the account you deposit your pay into into automatic invesments - the thought being if you don't feel it you won't miss it.  If you can actively add to that by saving more money, even better, but it's a huge help to have inertia and "out of sight out of mind" on your side.   The best time to start steady savings/investing is 30 years ago, the next best time is now...
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Blue_Dwarf on February 01, 2021, 08:13:38 am
How much profit do things like ETFs normally generate, for small investments?

Current events made me notice how easy it is to get into trading, but I wonder if it's actually worth it. If I invest like $5000, and only get like 50 bucks per year out of it, meh.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Aoi on February 01, 2021, 08:54:19 am
How much profit do things like ETFs normally generate, for small investments?

Current events made me notice how easy it is to get into trading, but I wonder if it's actually worth it. If I invest like $5000, and only get like 50 bucks per year out of it, meh.

Depends on the ETF. Index ETFs tend to be fairly boring, but since they're such a large basket, fairly stable. My choice would be an industry ETF in an area you think will see growth. For extra fun and excitement, you can go with a leveraged ETF, which will amplify your gains from a baseline one... or your losses. You can see a list of five-year returns here: https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-5-year-returns/ (The current funds du jour are those by ARK... I can't really comment on them, other than I've seen them discussed a lot, and their yields seem to be better than most.)

Well, what else are you doing with that 5k? It'd be getting about 0.01% in a bank account these days, or about... 50 cents. 1% is also a pretty low return for a 'normal' year; 5% is something more common for conservative investments, so 250$. (When not faffing about with something specific, I hopefully aim for 5% a week... and usually whiff and land around 2%.) A lot of the newer brokerages can get your money in or out in less than a week, so liquidity's not too big a problem... low friction is what a lot of them are counting on to pull in new clients.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Blue_Dwarf on February 01, 2021, 10:03:13 am
Well, something like $250 per year is only $20 per month. It's just a few hours of regular work. Or you could simply spend less to save an equivalent amount. Investing would actually take some effort that would negate some of the gain. Plus taxes.

If it's possible to get that kind of return in a week, that's definitely interesting.
Title: Re: Monies and investment
Post by: Maximum Spin on February 03, 2021, 12:07:02 pm
If it's possible to get that kind of return in a week, that's definitely interesting.
It is absolutely possible, but you mostly have to not do dumb things (which is often hard), and you will not get the same returns *consistently* because of volatility.