I'll end signups tomorrow to see if somebody wants to take webadict's place.I can't quite tell if webadict would specifically prefer not to play or is just trying to be nice.
I'll end signups tomorrow to see if somebody wants to take webadict's place.I can't quite tell if webadict would specifically prefer not to play or is just trying to be nice.
I'll play if he wants to give up the slot, but if he doesn't, that's fine too.
Also, hope things become okay soon, Vector.
Good question... I didn't know I'd have a chance to potentially recruit Vector, but I said it in case someone really wanted to play that didn't get a chance. If you wanna play, take it. I can keep working on some other things.I'll end signups tomorrow to see if somebody wants to take webadict's place.I can't quite tell if webadict would specifically prefer not to play or is just trying to be nice.
I'll play if he wants to give up the slot, but if he doesn't, that's fine too.
Also, hope things become okay soon, Vector.
I saw Knightwing talking with all three of them before they left!I mean, it's clearly EuchreJack. Note the lack of care and forced nonchalance. :P
Eh, trying to push the elimination onto me, TricMagic?I saw Knightwing talking with all three of them before they left!I mean, it's clearly EuchreJack. Note the lack of care and forced nonchalance. :P
Well, when in doubtSuspicious. Everyone knows that reasonable arguments from me are a scumtell!
EuchreJack
(Jk, gonna swap at the first hint of a reasonable argument)
Wasn’t web town last time because of innocent child?I'm always Town, Knightwing, even when I'm not, but especially when I am.
More he's looking to get recruited, is Jack's argument. Cause let's face it, webadict is almost certainly cult after night 2, if not night 1.That sounds a lot like you know I'm not Cult already...
Granted, Cult only needs to bypass the day 2 check to win, and web is a pretty good scapegoat.
As is though Jack, let's face it. You're either going to out yourself as town or get voted today. You're going to need better arguments than that, cause I have to rely on gut instincts when you're mafia. Not making the mistake of ignoring them again.
Also Roden, no hiding in plain sight. Make some posts..
ninjaweb.
More he's looking to get recruited, is Jack's argument. Cause let's face it, webadict is almost certainly cult after night 2, if not night 1.
Granted, Cult only needs to bypass the day 2 check to win, and web is a pretty good scapegoat.
I mean, doublethinking doesn't do me much good does it? We can check if you like, but I find it a bit pointless until you actually showcase some more scumtells. Which is the whole issue.Personally, checking me results in my hoping that I get Culted. Therein lies a bit of odd strategy. If you miss the Cult Leader, you might be forced into a situation where not voting the Cult Leader is the winning strategy. And if I get Culted Tonight, you'll have to deal with that. So... In a way, you need to make 100% sure I'm not cult before making that assumption, because if you aren't, then I'm going to slip by on technicalities.
.... What's your game webadict?
Everything's null for me until I catch scum, ain't that right?More he's looking to get recruited, is Jack's argument. Cause let's face it, webadict is almost certainly cult after night 2, if not night 1.
Granted, Cult only needs to bypass the day 2 check to win, and web is a pretty good scapegoat.
I would like to clarify: This was NOT my argument. I was instead reviewing Webadicts behavior to interpret whether or not Web was town.
Since the behavior reflects standard Web scumhunting techniques, it is a town tell.
But Web is probably aware of this, so could probably fake it easy enough. So Null.
I did think it was interesting.
Unvote.. Course it has hammers.
Voting - All players possess a single vote that they may cast against another player during the Day Phase. Votes are cast in red and should include the name of the targeted player. At the end of the Day Phase, the alignment of the player with the most votes is publicly revealed. If this player is cult aligned, they are eliminated from the game and may no longer play.I think it was just the wording here that tripped me up, it seemed to imply that only cult members could be eliminated.
Voting - All players possess a single vote that they may cast against another player during the Day Phase. Votes are cast in red and should include the name of the targeted player. At the end of the Day Phase, the alignment of the player with the most votes is publicly revealed. If this player is cult aligned, they are eliminated from the game and may no longer play.I think it was just the wording here that tripped me up, it seemed to imply that only cult members could be eliminated.
Voting - All players possess a single vote that they may cast against another player during the Day Phase. Votes are cast in red and should include the name of the targeted player. At the end of the Day Phase, the alignment of the player with the most votes is publicly revealed. If this player is cult aligned, they are eliminated from the game and may no longer play.I think it was just the wording here that tripped me up, it seemed to imply that only cult members could be eliminated.
That is correct. Town-aligned players have their alignments revealed publicly, cult-aligned players are eliminated.
Don’t be hard in Tric, for some reason people have a tendency to assume people on male on the internet. I actually got super embarrassed one time because I had called someone a dude but they were a girl and everybody knew that but me. Super embarrassingI'm actually not being hard on Tric enough. This has happened at least a dozen times now, and I still haven't seen Tric call Vector they/them. I just want Tric to catch himself once or twice.
Don’t be hard in Tric, for some reason people have a tendency to assume people on male on the internet. I actually got super embarrassed one time because I had called someone a dude but they were a girl and everybody knew that but me. Super embarrassing
Since there's only one bad guy right now, I don't think there's much we can do to solve. [...] So, I think unless we can meta someone as the bad guy, the votes today should go to one of Web/Vector/myself. I don't mind being the first elim, but if it isn't me then I'd prefer Vector. I'd only vote Web if I was confident that he's the Cult Leader, as it would be extremely dangerous for town to miselim him and make him a recruit target otherwise.
Personally, checking me results in my hoping that I get Culted.
Personally, Knightwing and Euchre already look Town, so I've removed them for now. TricMagic looks a little suspicious, but I'll take Euchre's word on them, if they say they're clear (which wouldn't particularly surprise me.) Roden looks a medium suspicious, and I don't really think I can explain why. Something feels off about the way they're phrasing things, that feels inceptive. Also, they've appeared to already cleared Euchre, Knight, and Tric before they've asked me to do so, but that also puts more faith in me than should be deserved, as I'm the hardest to read.
I think regardless that solving within Jack/Tric/Knightwing and then moving onto Web/Vector/myself as the secondary PoE is still a viable strategy at least.
I already town read Knightwing, and with time I can figure out Jack. I think Web has the best chance of figuring out Tric, so I'll leave that to him for now.
Webby, Roden left Tric to you and you're leaving Tric to Euchre... so which is it?Vector... When you're scum, you should buddy me instead. I dunno why you gotta make it awkward and vote for me, though. Or do you really think I'm scum?
Dig deeper into the underlined sentence, please. You and I both know that you know how to hunt and this isn't townhunting.
Cult Ally - A cult aligned player with no abilities. Cult Allies do not know the identity of the Cult Leader. (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179908.msg8377830#msg8377830)
Everything's null for me until I catch scum, ain't that right?This now applies to Vector & Web.
Wait, are you saying webs town or scum?Classic Psychiatrist Answer: "What do you think?"
Interesting bit on that whole "Wanting to be cult with so-and-so":I am pretty sure that Cult Ally is created by the Cult Leader. I am 99% sure that there are 5 Townies and 1 Cult Leader.Quote from: Opening PostCult Ally - A cult aligned player with no abilities. Cult Allies do not know the identity of the Cult Leader. (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179908.msg8377830#msg8377830)
Wait, are you saying webs town or scum?You know it!
Webby, Roden left Tric to you and you're leaving Tric to Euchre... so which is it?Vector... When you're scum, you should buddy me instead. I dunno why you gotta make it awkward and vote for me, though. Or do you really think I'm scum?
Dig deeper into the underlined sentence, please. You and I both know that you know how to hunt and this isn't townhunting.
See, this particular sentence is a bit silly. Roden left Tric to me, but Roden has no reason to think I'm Town, so that's suspicious to me, but not outright scummy. In turn, I thought Tric was a tiny bit suspicious, but I know Euchre will identify any pieces I'm missing (because I think Euchre is Town, and he's good at that sorta thing.)
I don't think that chain of logic is particularly flawed. Am I missing something?
As for Townhunting, I'd say that Euchre and Knight look exceedingly like their Town selves. Tric is probably Town, especially given Euchre's opinion. Roden I was on the fence about, but then you started harshing my mellow, when really you should be marshing that mallow! Now I gotta throw away my chance to be potentiallt culted by you... *sigh*
Sadly, I must continue.
When you say you save the juicy picks for later... Well, I did. Euchre and Knightwing was cleared by their first post, surprisingly. I thought Tric seemed a bit sketchy, but that was always reserved for Euchre's judgment at that point, because I'm liable to distract the Town following that lead. So, Roden and you are the PoE. Roden did seem like his Town self, but I was, perhaps, a bit too skeptical that he was scum, which is probably just good ol' fashioned paranoia.
Ninja@Euchre: I also Townread Knightwing. I am also willing to push for a Vector vote, sadly. If only Vector would buddy me!
To be fair, you haven't really posted much of interest Knightwing. Is that a scum-tell or a null-tell?I think he's posted enough to come off as town at this point. I think a reads list from him would help everyone understand where his head is though.
I town read Knightwing simply because he's playing atm, I think he would be terrified to be solo scum with no day powers and that it would reflect in his posts.::)
Jack is a semi-confident read, his tone is what I tend to read him off of though I now he has the capability to blend in with town under certain circumstances. Jack is harder to read when multiple factions are in play, and I think he can also pull off a solo scum game if he were to use a similar mindset.
Tric I actually do have a slight town lean on, but I wanted to know how Web would react if I left it to him to solidify that town read. If he's the Cult Leader, he doesn't want the PoE to shrink to just three players, so it makes sense for him to find Tric suspicious and then shade me for my posts. I think town!Web would be more likely to question the quality of the strategy and explain what could go wrong.
So I think at this point, Web is a good choice.
... Now I'm just. Don't have words. hua... Should expect that at this point. Don't trust you, but do trust that Jack is town according to you. If you're town, then Jack is town. If you're scum, Jack is town. If Roden is confusing me, Jack is town. So I think we can cross him off the list, since I think this is Town Jack too.Exactly. You can trust that I think Jack and Knight are Town precisely because I'm either Town or I'm scum and therefore they can't be scum. I trust Euchre to be able to identify if you're Town or not. It's pointless.
...[H]e doesn't want the PoE to shrink to just three players, so it makes sense for him to find Tric suspicious and then shade me for my posts. I think town!Web would be more likely to question the quality of the strategy and explain what could go wrong.Requires citations.
Personally, Knightwing and Euchre already look Town, so I've removed them for now. TricMagic looks a little suspicious, but I'll take Euchre's word on themINCOR-REKT!
So, Roden and you are the PoE. Roden did seem like his Town self, but I was, perhaps, a bit too skeptical that he was scum, which is probably just good ol' fashioned paranoia.This is me, definitely making a PoE that's greater than 3.
Um, someone asked for my reads sooooooo
Town:
Knightwing64
Webadict
Townish:
Tric
? ? ?:
EuchreJack
Roden
Scummy?
Vector
Um, someone asked for my reads sooooooo
Town:
Knightwing64
Webadict
Townish:
Tric
? ? ?:
EuchreJack
Roden
Scummy?
Vector
Good reads list!
Um, someone asked for my reads soooooooWhat's unreadable about Jack and myself to you?
Town:
Knightwing64
Webadict
Townish:
Tric
? ? ?:
EuchreJack
Roden
Scummy?
Vector
Alright Web, it look like I misread your posts then. What happens if we flip Vector and they end up flipping green?If they flip green, and it's SOMEHOW not you, then... Uh... One of the other three got really good, really fast. I, personally, don't think it'd be EuchreJack or Knightwing... Or TricMagic? Like, I know I said Tric's a bit suspicious, but... I am biased by EuchreJack. See, EuchreJack can't lie about Tric, for the same reason I can't lie about Euchre or Knightwing. Either I'm Town and read them Town, or I'm scum and they're 100% Town.
Unrelated, but I just realized we have a way to prevent auto loss on Day 3 if we miselim two townies in a row. Even though it would be 3v3 (two cult allies recruited and neither voted out, three townies still in play), cult allies don't know who the leader is. So if we all claim cult leader on Day 3, the actual leader can't win by rallying their allies and forcing a tie.You'd have to guess the people Culted as the Cult Leader.
Actually...Unrelated, but I just realized we have a way to prevent auto loss on Day 3 if we miselim two townies in a row. Even though it would be 3v3 (two cult allies recruited and neither voted out, three townies still in play), cult allies don't know who the leader is. So if we all claim cult leader on Day 3, the actual leader can't win by rallying their allies and forcing a tie.You'd have to guess the people Culted as the Cult Leader.
Alright, good point.Alright Web, it look like I misread your posts then. What happens if we flip Vector and they end up flipping green?If they flip green, and it's SOMEHOW not you, then... Uh... One of the other three got really good, really fast. I, personally, don't think it'd be EuchreJack or Knightwing... Or TricMagic? Like, I know I said Tric's a bit suspicious, but... I am biased by EuchreJack. See, EuchreJack can't lie about Tric, for the same reason I can't lie about Euchre or Knightwing. Either I'm Town and read them Town, or I'm scum and they're 100% Town.
Yep. We still lose if don't hit the Cult Leader that day, but we're at the very least guaranteed three chances to vote correctly.Actually...Unrelated, but I just realized we have a way to prevent auto loss on Day 3 if we miselim two townies in a row. Even though it would be 3v3 (two cult allies recruited and neither voted out, three townies still in play), cult allies don't know who the leader is. So if we all claim cult leader on Day 3, the actual leader can't win by rallying their allies and forcing a tie.You'd have to guess the people Culted as the Cult Leader.
No, you're right. Lying would hit Townies, and the TOWNIES shouldn't lie about being Culted.
I'll wait for Vector to return and post some responses. I feel confident that we should win this regardless of the order we eliminate the PoE in though.Well... It's not so much that we all win this. Missing the mark sucks because someone probably loses.
Unrelated, but I just realized we have a way to prevent auto loss on Day 3 if we miselim two townies in a row. Even though it would be 3v3 (two cult allies recruited and neither voted out, three townies still in play), cult allies don't know who the leader is. So if we all claim cult leader on Day 3, the actual leader can't win by rallying their allies and forcing a tie.
If we don't vote Cult on Day One, we have to hit Cult on Day Two or we lose.
@Knightwing: Note that you are still voting me.
I'll vote Vector Today, but I will note that I feel bad that Vector and I aren't on a team AGAIN!
Vector, you're best bet is convincing me that it's Roden instead! I'd highly recommend that, otherwise you make it a you vs. me thing.
Would you like to lose together? We can vote me first and then struggle vainly together Tomorrow. If that's what you want, that's all you have to say, silly goose.
I'm saying it forces because you're tunneling hard on me, and you're probably unwilling to point elsewhere in spite of no visible progress made on reads. It's actually quite scummy, so I'm giving you a choice to make. Converse with me and see I'm not Cult, or don't, and you probably get stuck in a 1v1 against me. And I have shiny white teeth to bite my thumb at you with.
But, this is very likely the out-the-door attack style of a scum Vector. I tend to be a very convenient target for Vector as scum, and they typicallt go a lot harder on rheir target.
As for Townhunting, I'd say that Euchre and Knight look exceedingly like their Town selves. Tric is probably Town, especially given Euchre's opinion. Roden I was on the fence about, but then you started harshing my mellow, when really you should be marshing that mallow! Now I gotta throw away my chance to be potentiallt culted by you... *sigh*
So, my thinking is that we vote Vector if Vector fails to respond, or we analyze Vector's next post if they do respond.
But feel free to keep poking Web. From my POE, it's probably one of Vector or Web.Spoiler: Tric's Eyes Only (click to show/hide)
I town read Knightwing simply because he's playing atm, I think he would be terrified to be solo scum with no day powers and that it would reflect in his posts.
Jack is a semi-confident read, his tone is what I tend to read him off of though I now he has the capability to blend in with town under certain circumstances. Jack is harder to read when multiple factions are in play, and I think he can also pull off a solo scum game if he were to use a similar mindset.
Tric I actually do have a slight town lean on, but I wanted to know how Web would react if I left it to him to solidify that town read. If he's the Cult Leader, he doesn't want the PoE to shrink to just three players, so it makes sense for him to find Tric suspicious and then shade me for my posts. I think town!Web would be more likely to question the quality of the strategy and explain what could go wrong.
So I think at this point, Web is a good choice.
- Other players usually see you as too much of an asset (or maybe just too slimy) to fight with.The great thing here is there IS a second way you get cleared, it just doesn't happen through reading. I'm pretty sure you're scum, however, because you tend to be a bit more aggressive as scum, and not in the good way where you cut through bad arguments like their butter, but the gonna-bite-your-face-with-fangs way. And while you're not exactly 100% on reading me, you tend to read my intent pretty well, and I think you are missing it pretty hard here.
- That means somebody's gotta tangle with you, and as far as I can see it, I'm the only one here with the guts.
- With that said, the only possible way that my alignment is going to get cleared through reading is by you.
- Town or scum, it's hugely to my advantage to go straight for ya!
VectorI find you less convincing Roden. Your posts seem to be more about keeping the PoE open enough to slide by, rather than get confined into a case where you'd get targeted. That and your posts don't sit right with me.
I find Web more convincing, sorry.
Are you saying I only guess who is mafia, web? MeanieYet still no reasoning for those reads. Awfully confident. Seriously, post some reasoning Knightwing.
New and improved reads
Town:
Knightwing64
Webadict
Townish:
Tric
EuchreJack
? ? ?:
Roden
Scummy:
Vector
I'm eagerly awaiting the Webadict reveal.
grabs popcornIt's not anything fancy, it's just me explaining. My thought process is that Roden is a literally a bit more obvious as scum. Additionally, if TricMagic is thinking it's Roden... It's probably not Roden.
Ya got anything? Huh punk?
Wow, and I'm not even recruited. Bummer.A nice bold start Webadict, but why Knightwing?
Knightwing, why shouldn't I vote you?
What the hell? I voted vector because I trusted your judgement web, which was obviously a bad decision.I... am voting you?
Unbelievable that I’m being blamed for this.
Vote me, do it. I dare you.
Because Knightwing never hammers as Town there
I literally always follow your instructions unless you were acting very suspicious.Well, that's not true.
Ugh, I feel like this should be a obvious vote but Roden seems genuinely salty about this which is making me second guessIf anything... I wonder if you got converted.
Good post by Vector!Pretty much have to for now. Vector didn't immediately jump on Knightwing OR me, when given the chance.
I'm just gonna keep that green check on Vector and move on with my life.
Roden. You here?Day started while I was asleep, chill a bit. It isn't my scum meta if I'm not even conscious.
you FOOOOOOLS HAVE BETRAYED ME FOR THE LAST TIME !!This is a good post, but it's mostly all stuff we already knew. Plus I think most people know you were most likely recruited last night.
especially Roden.
We're here on D2 (seLectLo) so we now have a few pieces of information. I'm going to start with the obvious points that we all know:
- Not only is there a Headhunter, there is now presumably a Headhunter-ally.
- We can think both about who the headhunter could be based on yesterday, and look for specific interactions between hunter and huntee.
- Specifically, we should expect a significant change in behavior between Yesterday and Today in most cases.
- We should also look for a headhuntee today hunting the headhunter but not being very useful or successful in killing them.
- The headhunter might want to signal them, too. (CF Toony + Web mally some months ago).
- It is probably more helpful for the headhunter to convert a player who expressed some vague idea of their identity as opposed to someone who has no idea. This is a fine point for WIFOM.
Let's examine the situation numerically:
- Any town player voting randomly today has a 40% chance of hitting scum.
- Removing the ally decreases the player number by 1 but doesn't reduce enemy materiel that much (we need to take out the Headhunter to win, not just cap their allies).
- This is a game where, remaining hidden is a major advantage to the headhunter, more so than in most mafia games.
- Essentially, psychologically speaking, the headhunter is generating meatshields, not allies (they'll still be "alone" in the game).
- We should look for someone who is "morally" acting fairly similar to how they would behave as an SK.
-> Let's also look at what happens if we just nail the convertee repeatedly:
-- D3 opens with a headhunter, a convert, and three townies alive.
-- D4 opens with a headhunter, a convert, and two townies alive. Headhunter wins.
So to summarize this analysis: we need to find the Headhunter to win and we have at most three more days including this one to do it. Just shaving off the converts repeatedly is not helpful if it doesn't give us any info as to the identity of the Headhunter.
For the record, I wasn't converted, probably for WIFOM reasons, but I'll be shocked if D3 opens and I'm still town; so I'm going to just focus on doing my best Today. I need to spend some more time thinking about what this says psychologically about the Headhunter and draw some conclusions about players, but I wanted to upload the strategy post before I go to the year-end bbq.
👁👄👁You also need to chill.
Accountable? For what? Voting the obviously acting suspect person like literally everybody else did?Because Knightwing never hammers as Town there
You’re voting me because I hammered? That must be the worst, quickly thought up bullshit excuse I’ve ever heard.
And the crazy part is, if you were actually town web, you would know that argument was bullshit because I would never read deeply enough into the rules to actually know how many vote are needed to hammer.
NOT only that, but your reasoning doesn’t even hold water. You wouldn’t even know what my hammering tendencies were like because you’re basing me on like the FIRST or second game of mafia I’ve EVER played. You’re basing your reasoning on a outdated assumption.
Why would I believe in you? Because Y O U A R E F U C K I N G W E B A D I C T, You are legit the smartest person I know, I literally always follow your instructions unless you were acting very suspicious.
Come on guys, you know better then this, at least, I hope you do.
I was going to make a giant reply but I have had a pretty rough day, and I’m not going to bother. Do what you want^scum
Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.That bit confuses me. If it hits EoD why would they panic? If we fail to lynch them we lose. At best we go into Day 3 where it just takes 1 blitz vote to lose.
With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.
I was going to make a giant reply but I have had a pretty rough day, and I’m not going to bother. Do what you wantI feel this, IRL stuff has killed my WIM in past games. You don't seem to be the most likely elimination though, and I'd rather you not give up regardless of your alignment.
Because the cult isn't organized. I'm assuming we still have a leading wagon going all day, and if it's wrong then yeah, Cult Leader won't panic. But the Ally has no idea if they're actually about to lose and may make a push. Additionally, we're practically guaranteed to know that a wagon is wrong if it goes stale and no one really does much as we approach EoD.Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.That bit confuses me. If it hits EoD why would they panic? If we fail to lynch them we lose. At best we go into Day 3 where it just takes 1 blitz vote to lose.
With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.
ninjaweb
Btw if I get voted out, I'm probably getting recruited and will win with cult, so I'm not gonna stress about votes on me. Pressure doesn't work that well in this set up. Of course, the Cult Leader could recruit someone else just to spite me or as a meme, but there's still a good chance I still win upon elimination.Roden, I need you to explain this post.
With that in mind...Cult Leader is the only one who can truly feel pressure in this set up. I hate to say it, but we're likely not gonna see anyone's true colors until we near EoD and panic force them to make a move.
Then vote them, pressure them. You're in this mess in the first place cause you were the hammer vote and didn't contribute much on day one. It looks very lurky. Of the PoE, is it Web or Roden? Or do you believe it's outside the PoE, being me or Jack. If you don't trust Web, look and piece together details.^This.
Oof, the spite/meme recruit happened lolDay got rushed because no one wants to sit and wait for people to reply. I wasn't gonna wait.
Called the Vector recruit though
Not sure why the day got rushed but GG, I applaud Tric for the improvement on his scum play
Tric was scum wtf??:D