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Messages - SirQuiamus

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1096
General Discussion / Re: You wanna rescue the world?
« on: April 21, 2015, 01:35:34 pm »
Doesn't that sort of feed into the point however?

I was pointing out that your "every scientist (individually) with advanced software" model is missing the point. Less and less is going to about some individual person having some insight and more and more is going to be about building systems where no one really knows the internals. We're already seeing a lot of this. Not only are there systems where no person understands everything, there are more and more black-box systems designed by a machine that nobody really knows why they work. It's not just that nobody has taken the time to check them out, these systems have so many variables it's impossible to comprehend everything in there.

It's sort of a religious belief that nothing is too complex for one human to understand, but that's plain bullshit. Dynamic systems with thousands of units, thousands of states per unit and complex rules of interoperation exist, and even experts are often stumped by what comes out of them. These things are optimized by machine learning and nobody really understands what they are doing internally.
Society is all about implementation, not design; and societal design-flaws are caused by insufficient data, not deficient intelligence. And what is a counter-intuitive solution to a social problem, anyway? If Multivac tells us that the optimal, utterly counter-intuitive solution is to SMASH CAPITALISM, will people believe it? If, on the other hand, Multivac tells us that the optimal, utterly counter-intuitive solution is to KILL EVERYONE, would we be willing to implement that plan? No doubt sociologists would be better off using more Big Data and neural networks in their research, but why would they listen to Multivac?

FAKEDIT: A black-box society that humans cannot comprehend? That's starting to sound downright scary...  :o

EDIT: I'm sure you've read The Machine Stops by E.M. Forster?   

1097
General Discussion / Re: You wanna rescue the world?
« on: April 21, 2015, 12:53:57 pm »
Also the perspective that "if each scientist has a computer than can do X it's good enough" fails to realize that it's our existing social structures that may be holding us back.
Do you consider human social structures immutable? The internet has already changed them a lot, and we ain't seen nothin' yet.

1098
General Discussion / Re: You wanna rescue the world?
« on: April 21, 2015, 12:43:23 pm »
Humans also have cognitive blind spots, even the best of us. There are a lot of things that trip humans up, but computers just see right through them.
My point is rather that if each scientist has a computer with sophisticated software, there's no need for a hypersmart, godlike Multivac. We have to rely on technology in all things, especially in what comes to mitigating the effects of human error, but we don't need an artificial saviour to tell us that the apparent solution is truly right.

1099
General Discussion / Re: You wanna rescue the world?
« on: April 21, 2015, 12:15:13 pm »
Consider the Eurisko example. Many smart humans spend years fine-tuning fictional ship loadouts in a competitive game environment. Then a dumb program comes along and runs for a few months in the spare time on someones PC and designs a whole new way of playing that blows every human out of the water. Not by a bit, but by miles. Humans pretty much suck at optimizing anything but the most simplistic scenarios. There are definite social gains to be had by using AI to analyse data.
I don't find that very convincing. We should keep in mind that it was a competitive game, not a collective effort of problem-solving. The smartest players were all tinkering with their own ship designs without sharing their knowhow with others – the exact opposite of what scientists are supposed to be doing with their research. If thousands of players had purposefully co-operated together to create the most efficient tactics, would the end-result have been qualitatively different from what Eurisko came up with? And what if every player had access to a personal computer for testing and optimizing their algorithms with the help of relatively simple programs? And what if each of them had a doctorate in mathematics? I don't see any reason to assume that a transition from a team of thousand super-intelligent scientists to a super-intelligent AI would mark a giant qualitative leap in intelligence.

Also, this:
We know what the problem is: Global warming. We know what causes it: Greenhouse gas. We know how to fix the problem: move away from fossil fuels.
     

1100
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 06:41:35 pm »
Stupidity must be punished - why should we care about people as dumb as that?

Pre-determined handouts are harder to do than you think as well. Try and come up with a set of rations that will do for everyone in an entire country. You obviously want something that doesn't spoil, so any fresh food is a no-no. But what if people don't want what you're handing out. I've had charity food before. About 70% of the weight is food you will never eat.

Also, what about clothes? It's not like you can hand out "units of clothes" in any reasonable way that everyone will want.
Stamps (like the rationing stamps used in Europe during and after the war) would be a solution; but that would just create humongous inefficiencies. Handing out cash is much easier, and more efficient to boot.
It would also be fairly easy to game the system by hoarding and reselling food rations and coupons. Capitalism will prevail.

EDIT: And people tend to greatly overestimate the prevalence of welfare fraud...
Quote from: Wikipedia
A poll conducted by the Trades Union Congress in 2012 found that perceptions among the British public were that benefit fraud was high - on average people thought that 27% of the British welfare budget is claimed fraudulently; however, official UK Government figures have stated that the proportion of fraud stands at 0.7% of the total welfare budget in 2011/12.

1101
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 05:48:11 pm »
Pretty sure basic income's major opposition is less austerity and more just-world fallacy.
Judging by the local debate around here, I'd say both, equally. "We cannot afford it" and "you don't deserve it" are regularly articulated together. Thing is, with a magnificent, capitalistic market economy, we could get rid of the former, but not the latter of those two idiocies. The society would still be divided into "haves" and "have-nots," not so much on the basis of money, but on the basis of work and the associated social status -- the useful versus the useless. Can everyone be self-employed? Some say yes, others say no ... I don't know.

1102
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 05:21:19 pm »
People needs jobs. But we already make too much shit. Hence, service jobs are on the rise.
Shouldn't we be hiring more people and making less shit? Of course not, that'd be crazy.
But that's the thing... you cannot purposefully undermine efficiency in a market economy because that'll just lead into depression and poverty. On the other hand, increasing efficiency by lowering wages and firing most of the workforce might also create poverty, but it will do so much good for stock prices and dividends ... which will eventually somehow benefit everyone, the liberalists say. I obviously have no idea how to fix this, but my inebry-addled brain is saying that it's wrong, wrong, wrong.

EDIT:
Basic income would be great, but we can't have nice things because lol austerity. Gotta make cuts and increase that efficiency!       

1104
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 03:43:01 pm »
English Wikipedia suggests the True Finns are social authoritarians and economic leftists. This sounds strangely identical to communist policies for a far-right party.
They are all over the place ideologically, and that's the secret of their success. If you really want to be a successful populist party around here, you need to appeal to the widest range of voters: "You want socialism or white supremacy? We got both! You want both in the same package? Bob's your uncle!" The D'Hondt method favors amorphous party rosters, since votes given to the "leftist" candidates also benefit the far-right candidates, and vice versa.         

1105
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 01:04:03 pm »
Unskilled labor means jobs that don't require much training or special knowledge. If you're only able to mop floors, then you're up shit creek when they invent a floor-cleaning machine. "everyone" doesn't have to be able to do "everything". Specialization just means you have to find a single thing you're good at.

The only way to prevent unskilled jobs being lost is some sort of government sanction on doing things in a more sensible manner. Or maybe we abolish minimum wage and also abolish welfare, and let employers pick up desperate people for 50 cents and hour.

If you're not good at anything, then you are royally screwed, but it's not anyone's fault. It's just inevitable.
If you apply Hume's guillotine on a Pollyanna and a Pragmatist, which one will lose their head?
I know that I'm far out in terms of starry-eyed idealism, but I honestly believe that we should stop obsessing over efficiency, as long as it doesn't mean being less ecological. If being humane means being inefficient, why are we always opting for inhumanity?

   

1106
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 12:34:37 pm »
Being useless ain't so bad, y'know? So long as you don't starve and whatnot.
But useless people will starve, you know? My state of malnourishment is proof of that. :P

The "thought economy" is a bit of a red herring here. It's not really a thing.

People who do things with their hands aren't being devalued. Unskilled labor is. And only because it's bad value for money. Smarter ways of working lead to more productivity increases for less money than throwing more unskilled manpower at it. It still takes the synergy between the ideas guy and labor.
Is it possible for any person to become skilled in any labor? I can't see myself employed in customer services. (or anywhere else, for that matter)

1107
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 12:06:38 pm »
*shrugs* We could, I guess, but it'd leave a lot of people without anything to do, unless we turned back the clock and artificially induced massive amounts of inefficiency in our basically everything. Which would be ridiculously stupid. What you're suggesting would more or less demand either supporting a(n even more) significant unemployed population or a fairly sizable population cull.

... though I'd be curious what you mean by that everything else. Surprisingly, even if we have excesses and inefficiencies in a lot of areas, most jobs don't actually exist for bullshit reasons -- (significantly) more people may be working in them than necessary with good methodology and automation, but they're generally there for fairly solid reasons of one sort or another. There's exceptions, but those honestly makes up a damn small portion of the current economy, to the best of my knowledge.
2% of the population does/makes things, while 98% sits on the couch watching TV/YouTube? Perfect happiness and content all around? :-\
I'll try to restate my point in clearer terms: Thinking up stuff for a thought economy is not for everyone. Some people are good at thinking or entertaining, while others are better at doing practical things with their hands. If the current trend is allowed to proceed, the latter category of people will be declared useless. I realize that the services sector also includes practical jobs, and heck, unemployed industrial workers are constantly re-educating themselves for employment in services. But I'm saying that it isn't enough: Some people are simply not happy as barbers, and a completely service-based economy is like a city of barbers who live by shaving each other.     

1108
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 11:34:58 am »
Ok we should abolish medical care then, i guess your saying?

This idea that people only need services from other people because of some capitalist conspiracy is silly.

I guess we could lock down the entire entertainment industry and only give people rationed goods. But then we're into "Mao Suit" territory with everyone having their state-approved clothing and state-approved outlets for frustration.

I'm guessing you're thinking of "service economy" as only people mowing your lawn or something, but's it's a whole lot more than that.
Well, "services" is obviously a too wide umbrella term in this instance ... how about "bullshit economy," like, uh, everything else except science, manufacture, culture, and healthcare?

...I need to collect my thoughts for a moment. :-[

EDIT: You see, when you're a boozy backwoodsman with a blazing Marxist heart and very little sense, stuff like this sounds so... dubious.
Quote from: Wikipedia
In economics, a service is an intangible commodity. That is, services are an example of intangible economic goods.
RAHHH COMMODITY FETISHISM CAPITALIST PLOT RANT RANT

But, there are times when a word doesn't quite mean what I think it does, and this is probably one of them.   

1109
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 11:07:58 am »
The definition of post-industrial economy is that the service sector generates more GDP than the manufacturing sector, that's all it is. You can test for whether that's true or not easily.
It is true in many Western societies, but obviously untrue from a global perspective. Post-industrial societies are standing on the oil-stained shoulders of industrial societies, and service economy is nothing but parasitism.

Part of the issue stems from the fact that there's only so much physical stuff you need: you only need so much food, one refrigerator, one stove etc. After you have excess stuff, hoarding more stuff doesn't magically increase your standard of living. At this stage, you need services.
My point is precisely that we shouldn't be trying to increase our standards of living beyond that baseline. We wouldn't need services if we could stop fetishizing economic growth.   

 

1110
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: April 19, 2015, 10:39:44 am »
Once upon a time there were psiocrats (can't spell due to smartphone) who insisted these elitist industrial proponents were wrong because everything came back to food and no number of craftsmen would change the amount of food and other farm products grown. And now we live in a world where 2% of the population farms and most of the food is made by a minority of that 2%.
2% of the population does/makes things, while 98% sits on the couch watching TV/YouTube? Perfect happiness and content all around? :-\

EDIT: What's a "psiocrat," btw?

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