Bay 12 Games Forum

Everyone: For this game mode, when is the ideal time to mass claim and reveal the results of night actions?

I'm not sure exactly. LyLo and MyLo for sure, but before that, I have no idea.

Chaoulli analysis done.  Time to play.

---

Quote from: Peradon on June 08, 2015, 10:29:29 pm

Quote from: Jack A T on June 08, 2015, 09:59:56 pm

Peradon: Alright.  Now, why did you announce your 2/3rds chance yesterday (probably a more useful question than 'why do these scenarios not apply here')?  I don't recall (I may be wrong) you doing so in previous games.

I did so here here and... somewhere else, I think. I cant remember where.

Peradon: Thank you for this information.  It's actually very helpful.

Now, I was asking about the choice to give a specific number (the 2/3rds chance), which you did not do in either linked post.  What you do give in the linked posts, though, is material that makes your Cheesecake case look much more contrived.  In particular, the Cult Mafia 2 post is quite interesting (bolding mine):

Quote from: Peradon on May 16, 2015, 12:23:03 pm

(1)That OSG is the cultist, and he is trying to pin something on me, based on an RVS vote.
(2)That OSG is Town, and he legitimately thought that an RVS vote is scummy if it is placed on top of an existing post. (I find this to be less likely; I have seen what OSG plays like, and he knows better.)
(3)That OSG is either Town or the Cultist, and was trying to do a gambit. (This also is less likely, mainly because of I have never seen OSG do any gambits...)

So, you see, granted that OSG's vote was legitimate, there are only two possibilities; one of them being that he is Scum, the other that he is stupid town. I dont think OSG is stupid town, thus he is probably Scum.

You weren't treating these options as equally likely.  You were quite explicitly integrating knowledge you had beyond the scenarios to weight the scenarios.  The same goes for your linked CYOMs post, where you integrate Shakerag's experience to weight the scenarios.

So, let's go back to an earlier topic of discussion: why did you treat the Cheesecake scenarios as equally likely and stop your analysis there?  Clearly not because that's how you handle your scenario analysis, as it isn't.

Because I dont see how any of them could be less likely than the others. I have no Meta to compare against, and cheesecake has no experience, so I cant put that in. I guess the only thing I could have put in, was a lack of experience, but that really doesnt work very well.

Counter question: Why do you find this contrived? Do you find it unlikely that I simply didn't have any extra information to use that would modify the chances?

Cake first, then go to see one of the big tourist traps. (Big Ben, etc.) Ask Millicent if there's any history behind them that most wouldn't know. Namely immortal-related.

+1

NB4 quote change by tntey.

So now that cult mafia is done, we starting this soon?

Damn it. I thought GeMe was cult, but not the leader. Well, gg.

Same thing. He played his newbieness to his advantage.

Bleh, I got that completely wrong. GG GeMe.

Ouch. You getting a demon. Man, you sure got lucky. Anyway, good game, and In for next game!