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Messages - FallacyofUrist

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646
Okay, I'm about to enter work and the post from phone realm, but I still have a bit of time to lay some groundwork.

Mileage may vary, but the way I see it, ideal vote targets lie at in two particular confluences.

People who are active, but, make no effort to contribute.

And people who are active, but, contribute in bad faith while trying to seem like it's in good faith.

These two categories define scum. There's also people who are just less active, but it's pretty hard to diagnose scumminess from that, though pressure votes are still useful to get things moving.

Personally I find the second of the two confluences I defined to be the more useful one. Just off the top of my head, I like what I've seen more out of Toaster, NQT, hector and somehow juicebox (not very much posting, but it's all good stuff, no wasted juice whatsoever), and dislike what I've seen out of Spin, ToonyMan, Tric, and Jim.

That still leaves like... half the player base though. And I'm sure you've noticed once again that I haven't defined why I feel the way I do about the players I named. Heck, my vibe checks could be completely out of date.

So that's what I'll be trying to work on today. Feel free to call me out if I try to skip out on actually doing that part, because that's the important part. The details. But the day is still long, and we can afford players getting their chance to get their game face on.

I probably won't get too much of that done while at work and forced to PfP, but I'll aim to apply that process of categorization to like, three players? Maybe four.

647
I was gonna do a bunch of looking and research and stuff, but then I filed taxes.

Fuck the American taxation system. It's deliberately hard to file taxes for yourself thanks to tax prep industry lobbying, arrrgh.

Wrung out my whole brain juice quantity on that one.

Or what I mean to say is brain tired, gonna go do silly things instead of mafia and come back to this when brain less hurts. Probably do connection analysis thing then.

648
Also, can anyone tell me what "PPE" means?  I've looked it up on the mafia-scum wiki, but I can't seem to find it.

Also, what does "TP" mean?  I can't seem to find that either...
Pre Post Edit - in this forum architecture, people that have posted since you started writing your post only have their posts show up once you hit preview or post yourself. PPE is when you edit your post in response to those posts that were posted since you started writing.

TP is an abbreviation for third party.



I think sketching out relationships between players will be more helpful than a strict town to scum read hierarchy. Or rather it's practically a requirement for that, at this point in such a large game. It's also an excuse to try something new.

649
I just realized that webadict fixed the 'mass claim of night actions easily roots out scum suspects' thing.

The AP system means that we can no longer assume that just because someone performed an action, that they didn't also do something else, such as the mafiakill, or that roleblock that hit you on Night 2.

The OP states that the mkill only costs 1 AP, too.

This doesn't mean that night action analysis is useless, but it sure isn't as effective as it was before.

That's kinda important, by which I mean very important. Puts more emphasis on the day game too, which I like.

Perfectly balanced, as all things should be.

650
Voting Tric looks like a potentially reasonable option.

Basically, what we're trying to figure out here is if he's substantially varying from his town baseline. Given how much Tric projects, that's much easier done than for say, Toony. I'd be willing to vote Tric later if a reread of his posts makes me feel like he's scum. Or malevolent third party, though I'd prefer to vote for scum. Chasing third parties too far is a fallacy (rip me).

And Max doesn't feel particularly town, except that's exactly what I felt the last few times I tried to read him, too. There's always this level of detachment which is hard to parse things through.

651
I’ll be posting more frequently tomorrow, most of my day was taken up by COMP SCI bullshit.
I feel you. Pretty hard, yeah.



Votecount: That's a lot of 2s. More likely one of them will resolve into a full bandwagon, or we'll choose someone else possibly.

juicebox wouldn't surprise me. There's something very executable about juicebox, although I don't like the idea of just going for the easiest execution.

652
FallacyofUrist: How do you propose I should feel about you being immune to alignment inspections? Also Gate of Dreams (update) when?
Generally players with passive 'screw inspection' effects are town, at least in the Bay 12 meta. I see millers a lot more often than godfathers. However, webadict is fully willing to mix it up.

I propose you pay more attention to me and consider using non-alignment investigative abilities if you're concerned.

Gate of Dreams less often now that this game's started, but I'll still try to get to it every few days. No more month long hiatuses.

I'm very much taking note of all these posts.

Go ahead Mafia. Shoot me. Make my day. Won't change the fact that you've wasted the shot.
So much aggro. This feels like 30 degrees askew from normal TricMagic. That's like, pi/6 radians.

@Lenglon What was the point of those questions earlier anyway? Do ya think they would actually help catch mafia or was it just shitposting?
You know, something can be shitposting and help catch scum. Here and now, it's all about generating data.

I should probably change my vote, though.

The thing about Maximum Spin is that I really struggle to read him. So I'm going to give that a try, for practice, and then probably unvote him later because the execution target is always decided in the last six hours of the Day.

653

PFP



Do you trust Tric? I don’t trust Tric. Vibe check doesn’t pass. He reads like he knows what he’s doing. It’s like how I always play better when I’m scum.



Okay, I can conceptualize what’s bothering me now, about Max’s logic. Is it valid? Yes. The problem is that it’s fundamentally basing scumminess on something that’s not part of the game state and can only be subjectively argued. It’s unreliable and easy for scum to potentially exploit. I don’t like it for that reason.



In case it was missed. Alignment inspection does not work properly on me. Since nobody noted it the first time I said it.

654
PFP

Fallacy did you request third party or scum alignment when joining?
See above.

PFP

Spin-kun. I tried to choose cult. Because cults are cool. (It didn’t work)

655
PFP

Clearly you overestimate webadict, Spin-chan.

Or fail to recognize the depths of his twisted humor.

656
PFP

Spin-kun. I tried to choose cult. Because cults are cool. (It didn’t work)

657
PFP

Fallacy do you think scum, third party, or town will win this game?

Far too early to tell. The typical ratio is something like 50% town to 40% mafia and 10% third party, in terms of win rates, though.



Conjecture. Due to the reluctance of players to keep their vote in one place for too long, players being bandwagoned in the middle of the day are usually safe from execution.

Secondarily, players who were closer to execution in the day prior, but not necessarily multiple days prior, will be more likely to get targeted in the current day.

658
Posting from phone (PFP)

Hey... Fallacy.

Can you do me a flavor and confirm that you are, right now, absolutely definitely 100% unquestionable beyond the shadow of a doubt, town right now?

Yes.

Any attempt to confirm that mechanically will probably fail horribly, in all honesty. But yes.


659
Real talk, not knowing something doesn't make you dumb. We're all learning, even the people with years of experience. Everyone here had a first game, and I think you're doing fine, currently.

Right now (in this stage of the game), what's important is just generating activity and data by pushing people around. Every vote counts towards that.

What's more important than the four-vote bandwagon on Lenglon is the other players' reactions to the four-vote bandwagon on Lenglon.

Does anyone look particularly averse to what's going on? Anyone seem unusually protective or distant as a result of what's happening? Too eager to hop on?

Everything produces data. And while there's nothing known for certain without role powers to gather information, what matters during the day is making estimates.

And the more day phases and actual days that go on, the more likely it is that one of the scum will slip up. And either the town estimates will converge and strike down scum, or the scum will manage to divert those trajectories long enough to win.

That's mafia.

The fact that webadict is willing to make my little pony unicorn cults appear in his games doesn't change the essence of what this game is.

Anyways back to voting Lenglon for no rational reason because it generates data

660
See, even Lenglon thinks you should vote her! It's the foolproof choice! The scumteam is definitely Lenglon Hector TricMagic. This is because my god-magic-super-inspect chained from her and told me everyone else in the scumteam's alignments too.

You’ll need to convince me concerning your “god-magic-super-inspect” first, however I’m currently leaning towards lynching her…

Does your ability say anything about me?
Yes. My ultra-powerful-always-accurate-checker of vibes indicates that you are trustworthy and have a strong limited-shot ability in your role.

Now vote Lenglon, who is blatantly scum.

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