Bay 12 Games Forum

Because he's confirmed town..? I know he's not going to vote for town if he can help it, and (as I mentioned previously) I also suspect both players.

Sure, but he didn't know anything beyond what we knew (other than his own role).  He wasn't even confident about either of his votes.  Since he died before he could investigate anyone, his opinions are as fallible as any other townie. 

Why did you want to know that Megas?

Better question: how does it help us find scum?

Night 1 ended early, which would only happen if the cult leader and all power roles submitted their actions.  I was curious about whether there was a chance of OSG being the cult leader.  Like you said earlier, he could just lie to clear himself.  However, OSG was still visiting this thread and making short comments despite his mind being on other things.  Thus, I thought there was a higher chance he wouldn't think about the implications and answer the question honestly.

EBWOP

Megas: bear in mind that flabort could be scum trying to make his behaviour look unintentional ("mistakes") rather than deliberately calculated. He already said that I've pointed it out, so if he is scum, he loses nothing from pointing it out himself. Might even gain a bit of town-cred for acknowledging something that needs to be corrected.

PPE: not necessarily a good question. We can't confirm the answer we get, so it's a freebie if OSG is scum.

I'm aware of both those points, but I'm still interested in their answers.

hector13:

Okay, did a quick read through of CW and SaberTooth's posts.

CW only seems to have voted for fillipk and SaberTooth, so I looked into Saber a bit more...

Saber hasn't done much. I mean, I don't think there's even one scum-hunting question that he asked that wasn't throwing another player's question back in their face. Also, the cheeky little unvote toward the end of the day doesn't sit well with me, particularly when, right at the end of the day, fillipk piques his interest again. Then at the start of D2, he's all "this is proof filipk is scum! ... but I don't think he's scum enough to vote for him" which I also find bothersome.

Did you decide to take a closer look at Sabertooth based on the fact that CW voted for him, or did you decide to look at both CW and Saber for other reasons?

origamiscienceguy:  What's your opinion of SabertoothTiger's play this game?  Do you think he's the cult leader?

fillipk: 
1.  You claimed to have a power role during Day 1.  Is this the first time you've had a power role in a mafia game?  Just a "yes" or "no" will suffice.  No need to tell me anything more about your role.
2.  What's your reasoning for thinking SabertoothTiger is newbie town versus newbie cult?

PPE:

flabort: 

Is it OK that I'd rather not say? OK, OK, I'll spill; it would cause more harm than good at this point to keep it hidden. Hector13 got pretty close to the mark there with his accusations of trying to LOOK active but not being very contribution; mostly my mistakes were questions that didn't help at all and answers that barely made any coherent sense.

How would it have caused more "harm than good" to keep these mistakes hidden?

flabort:  I recall you mentioning in our last game together that you had a rather unique player meta: "Flabort is good at looking town when he's scum but is an awful town player".  Do you still live up to this meta?  How well do you think you've been playing during this game?

fillipk:  Which person are you the most suspicious of being the cult leader?

SabertoothTiger:  You said here that you haven't looked very closely at me.  Have you done it yet?  If so, what your read on me?

I looked over Day 1's bandwagons and took some notes on it.  There were two bandwagons on SabertoothTiger, one on fillipk, and one on Chromatic Wasp.  I quickly threw together a list of each person who voted & FOSed on these bandwagons and their stated reasons. 

SabertoothTiger #1: (Starts here)
hector13 - Voted because Saber did not want attention (1) *later stated to be a pressure vote & implied by later advice*
Myself - FOS for similar reasons as hector13
Chromatic Wasp - FOS for Saber's self-defensive paranoia
FallacyofUrist - Pressure vote to make Saber answer hector's question (2)
fillipk - random pressure/bandwagon vote with RVS-style question. (3) *fillipk bandwagon starts now* *later stated to be a vote for the purpose of not looking like a liar*
hector13 - Unvote due to fillipk being suspicious (2)
FallacyofUrist - Swaps vote for FOS due to fillipk being suspicious (1)
fillipk - Unvote due to pressure (0)

SabertoothTiger #2: (Starts here)
Myself - Vote due to Saber's over defensiveness and odd lack of voting (1)
fillipk - FOS due to Saber maybe implying he knew about Cult Lord mechanics
Chromatic Wasp - doubtful Vote due to Saber's contradictory passivity & aggression and his lack of responding to questions (2)
flabort - Vote due to being scummiest of reads (3)
Myself - Unvote due to CW being more suspicious (2)


fillipk: (Starts here)
Myself - Vote due to anti-town play and suspected rolefishing (1)
hector13 - Vote for same reasons as myself (2)
Chromatic Wasp - Vote due to fillipk's odd hypothetical description (3)
FallacyofUrist - Pressure Vote for fillipk's poorly thought out theorizing (4)
Myself - Unvote due to thinking fillipk was a power role (3) *Chromatic Wasp wagon starts a few posts later*
Chromatic Wasp - Unvote after admitting fillipk vote was a bandwagon/active-lurk vote (2)
hector13 - Swaps vote for FOS due to CW (1)
flabort - FOS for pressure reasons?
SaberToothTiger - Vote due to fillipk voting for him without good reason and lack of response (2)
SaberToothTiger - Unvote due to fillipk not seeming that scummy (1)

Chromatic Wasp:
hector13 - FOS because CW's reasoning for his fillipk vote was weird and suspicious
hector13 - Vote because of CW's bandwagoning and active lurking (1) *Apparently a pressure vote meant to incite CW to become more active*
fillipk - Vote because of CW's passivity, bandwagoning, and anti-town suggestions (2)
hector13 - Unvote because CW responded (1)
Myself - Vote because of CW's hesistant voting and overall passivity (2)
hector13 - Vote because of CW's bandwagoning, active lurking, & poorly reasoned plans (3)
FallacyofUrist - FOS for similar reasoning as previous voters; not a vote due to fillipk's lack of response

Analysis:
6 of 9 players were voting for someone by Day 1's end.

Myself: Voted on 3 of 4 wagons.  First one on the fillipk wagon and the second SaberToothTiger wagon.  Lynched Chromatic Wasp.
hector13: Voted on 3 of 4 wagons.  First one on the first SabertoothTiger wagon and the Chromatic Wasp wagon.  Lynched Chromatic Wasp.
fillipk: Voted on 2 of 4 wagons.  Had a wagon against him.  Lynched Chromatic Wasp.
FallacyofUrist: Voted on 2 of 4 wagons.  Was the 4th vote on fillipk wagon before it died down.  Was voting for fillipk ay Day's end.
flabort: Voted on 1 of 4 wagons.  Was the 3rd vote on the second SabertoothTiger wagon before I switched wagons.  Was voting for SabertoothTiger by Day's end.  Voted only once during Day 1.
SabertoothTiger: Voted on 1 of 4 wagons.  Had 2 wagons against him.  Voted only once during Day 1.  Was not voting by Day's end.
tntey / OSG : Inactive during Day 1.
TheDarkStar: Dead via NK.
Chromatic Wasp: Had a wagon against him.  Dead via lynching.

If I got some details wrong, feel free to let me know.

---

PPE:

PPE: and of those known roles, two are dead. One by our hands, one by the hands of your third known one. I would ask your opinion of those unknown roles and how many you'd guess are vanilla, but that would be fishing which we all know is frowned upon. So as to your answer to Hector, what makes you think that an SK is unlikely to be convertible? Why wouldn't a town vigilante be nonconvertible if you think an SK wouldn't be?

Primarily because of what the Serial Killer page on the Mafiascum wiki says.  According to that page, Serial Killers are often given an extra advantage to help survive against 2 other factions.  Even if the SK is unconvertible, the cult might be able to identify him after a failed convert and rally against him to get him lynched the next day, so it wouldn't be too big of an advantage for the SK.
Vigilantes are aligned with the town, so giving them conversion-immunity would make it nearly impossible for the cult to stop the Vig if he claims early enough and the town decides to never lynch him.  Cult would have to gain a majority before they'd be able to stop him.

Make myself lethal once again.

All that says is they won't have shown up with that particular PR. It's a moot point, regardless; if anyone can, they won't (and shouldn't) say.

That's true.  I just didn't think it was likely that there was another cop-like role.

Of course, none of the power roles should claim and speak up to prove my conclusions right or wrong unless they've identified the cult leader or discovered some other crucial tidbit of information.