Bay 12 Games Forum

Quote from: hector13 on November 09, 2015, 08:31:49 pm

I think this is the post that ATH meant to link to.

Did you mean Megas is backtracking or that I, hector, was backtracking? Also which one of us was making suspicious posts?

yes that was the post and i was talking about meggas not you hector I'm currently talking about meggas suspicious post right now also
Extension

So analyzing this:
Tomasque/Shakerag - Doesn't appear very town-like, but this player slot has had some inactivity.
NJW2000 - Has only had one (valid) voting target the whole game so far. 
ATH - Most variety of targets D1.  I'm inclined to lean town toward him, despite all that happened D1.
Megggas - Pretty much right in the median.
Hector13 - In the median D1, but has ramped up the # of targets D2.  Possibly town, but seems on-the-ball enough to be clever scum.
Tolyk - In the median, but should possibly be experienced enough to be doing a bit better.  But Tolyk is flaky, so could all just be a null tell.
4maskedwolf/OSG - Doesn't appear very town-like, but 4masked replaced out and has been rather inactive as of late across games.  Possibly null, but might be slightly leaning scum.
TDS - In the median.  Also has a bit more experience, so could be hanging back.  Null to slightly scummy.

---

NJW2000:  Why did you stop voting for Hector13 late-ish in D1 only to re-vote him D2?

Megggas:  Why did you end D1 without having a vote on anyone?

Still re-reading; more to come.

So much to do and so little time... eh. Answering stuff concerning me now, also Extend.

Quote from: Megggas on November 10, 2015, 02:27:10 am

Quote from: TolyK on November 06, 2015, 07:03:10 am

So, I was reading through, when...

Quote from: Megggas on November 05, 2015, 11:15:17 pm

***
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
***

#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing. So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?

TolyK refers to the scum's possible choice of not killing anyone as being "really clever" and "fun."  That choice of words is kind of suspicious.  It sounds like he's thinking with a scum mindset.

At that moment, yes, I was thinking from the point of view of the scum. For one, it's fun trying to break stuff and think of gambits (even in a BM). For two, exploring all possible moves is a way to "solve" a game. Thinking "what would I do as scum" is completely logical, as long as it doesn't lead to continuous WIFOM.
Err. So, what I'm saying is, I'm trying to enjoy myself and also win?

However, I agree that the wording is light-hearted and thus suspicious in such a dark setting.

Quote from: Megggas

Quote from: Megggas on November 05, 2015, 11:15:17 pm

Quote from: Megggas on November 06, 2015, 03:30:20 am

Everyone else:  Who do you think is the most scummy person right now?

ATH is still setting off alarm bells, NJW had a WIFOM-strike against him, Roo is dead, 4masked is missing...

Request prod on 4masked.

... Megggas has posted good content (both summaries and own content), hector is... eh, no real read that I can remember.

PPE:

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 07:29:29 pm

Quote from: hector13 on November 05, 2015, 07:24:16 pm

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

TolyK posted his reads and his top scum pick was ATH.  So, if he thought ATH was scum, then he wouldn't believe anything he said as cop, right?  Yet, if you look back at that list of people that he listed reads on, there's someone missing.  Tomasque, the person that ATH supposedly cleared.  The fact that Tomasque was excluded from this list is suspicious.  It's as if TolyK no longer considered Tomasque as a candidate for being scum since ATH cleared him, but this doesn't make any sense if TolyK didn't believe that ATH was the cop.

TolyK, why did you not include Tomasque in your reads?

Uh, no. ATH is indeed my top scum pick, however I had no read on Tomasque (indeed, I nearly forgot who ATH said he inspected), which is why I didn't mention him. I was never asked a "full list of reads", just who I thought was scum. Mentioned a few townie-feelings as well.
I didn't include Tomasque and TDS. Both have posted relatively little, at least little of which came to mind. Shakerag is likely to be better in that regard. 

So, I was reading through, when...

Quote from: Megggas on November 05, 2015, 11:15:17 pm

The fact that nobody died last night and AbstractTraitorHero was able to do his investigation is rather surprising.  That means one of several things happened.
1.  The jailor blocked a scum member.
2.  The jailor protected the scum's nightkill target, which wasn't AbstractTraitorHero. 
3.  The scum decided not to kill anyone for some reason.  This would be bad play since this is counter to their win condition, so I don't think that's what happened.
4.  The scum didn't submit a target to fillipk because they were offline/inactive during Night 1.  Based on my look through everyone's profiles, this seems unlikely, but still a possibility.
5.  AbstractTraitorHero was targeted by the scum and protected by the jailor, but is lying to us about his investigation results as part of another loony gambit to try to lure out scum.  A distinct possibility given what we've seen ATH try doing on Day 1, but I hope this isn't the case.

I think #1 or #2 is what happened.  The Jailor probably targeted someone they thought seemed scummy and either they actually hit scum or hit the scum's target.  If the scum were expecting the jailor to protect ATH, then that could be why they chose a different target.  I'm leaning a bit more toward #1 since that would require only the jailor to choose the right target instead of both the scum and jailor choosing the same target.

#3. This is actually really clever. Given the assumption of "scum kill every night", that logically means a failed kill is due to a protection or the mafia being blocked. The first is ~5 times less likely to be true, so by this logic whoever the RB targeted is scum. However, scum don't have to kill every night, which is where the fun part is: By not killing, they're effectively framing the person who was jailed. So unfortunately the "jailkeeper stopped two kills" by D3 doesn't work for finding the mafia, because of possible shenanigans of framing. So my suggestion is for the JK to keep quiet for now, and act almost as though they know nothing (to lower the chances of getting killed on a hunch). Possibly, hinting in your posts or main target or whatnot (in case you die). What do you folks think?

Quote from: Megggas on November 06, 2015, 03:30:20 am

Everyone else:  Who do you think is the most scummy person right now?

ATH is still setting off alarm bells, NJW had a WIFOM-strike against him, Roo is dead, 4masked is missing...

Request prod on 4masked.

... Megggas has posted good content (both summaries and own content), hector is... eh, no real read that I can remember.

PPE:

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 07:29:29 pm

Quote from: hector13 on November 05, 2015, 07:24:16 pm

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

Fixed, thank you.

also

Tomasque has requested a replacement, should it be a newbie or a veteran?

Before he walks away:

"But wouldn't I still be alone? A pistol is not a person."

Ciri does a thumbs-up, to indicate she understood. More writing.

"Where is the nearest place I can be inside?"

While it shouldn't be possible she was off the ship, Ciri's logical mind knew that there wasn't anywhere like this on the ship.