Bay 12 Games Forum

Quote from: TolyK on November 11, 2015, 03:13:51 pm

Quote from: Megggas on November 11, 2015, 03:14:11 am

I don't agree with TolyK.  I think the evidence he specified against you points more toward you being a bad town player then a good scum player.   If you're scum, it doesn't make much sense for you to draw additional suspicion by haphazardly going back and forth on your investigation results, especially all within a span of about 28 minutes. 

No, I believe that was a genuine mess-up, like the rolecop/cop mess-up. It's just that he forgot who he supposedly inspected, in my theory.

What about his switch from no-investigation-result to got-his-pm-late?  Do you think that was another genuine mess-up or part of some kind of scum plan?

hector13:  Now that you've done a post-by-post analysis of NJW2000, do you have any suspicions of who his scum buddy could be?

AbstractTraitorHero:  You said earlier that you were suspicious of both hector13 and NJW2000.  Now that they've had their little debate with eachother, what are your thoughts on them?

I think this is the post that ATH meant to link to.

Did you mean Megas is backtracking or that I, hector, was backtracking? Also which one of us was making suspicious posts?

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 09, 2015, 05:52:05 pm

Meggas:.....you seem town I have a good gut feeling and i have seen scumtells in your posts but their inconsistent so i don't believe your scum...for now.

What scumtells have you seen from Megas?

Also, NJW, TDS is my top scum read after you so... it would be kinda silly of me to name him after you if he's my partner. If I were scum and we lynched you, I'd have no choice but to go after my second scumread - who you think is my scum partner - tomorrow, else I'd look scummy. It's... not the best strategy is it?

I also mentioned ATH earlier as someone I'd vote for if someone else didn't come up more scummy, resulting in a similarly bad outcome as outlined above.

Also, day ends in a little under a day. We're either going to have to extend or make our cases.

WAIT A SECOND!!!

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 05:17:43 pm

I'M ALIVE! cue dancing
Yeah i didn't receive any results so the jailor had to have jailed me

So the question is how should we procced to find scum?

AND LATER...

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 08, 2015, 01:20:04 am

i investigated tomasque it said he was town/notmafia

AbstractTraitorhero This is a complete contradiction. Lynch all Liars.

Okay, I'm back again.

hector13:

Quote from: hector13 on November 08, 2015, 01:15:45 pm

Basically Megas has been reasonably active, offering theories and opinions about the goings on in the game, adopting something of a "thinking out loud" approach, and not just saying "this is what I think has happened, so that's what I'm going to push forward with", which is why I take issue with you.

In saying that, Megas, in that linked post you say you think that ATH and Roo are the same alignment. What are your thoughts now?

My thoughts about Roo and ATH being the same alignment?  Since Roo is already confirmed town, this question is basically just "Do you think ATH is town?"  Point #1 of my last post details several of the reasons why I feel ATH is probably town.  If I misunderstood your question, then let me know.

NJW2000:

Quote from: NJW2000 on November 08, 2015, 01:47:08 pm

Oh, and thanks for the scumchats, Meggas, they're here because I took a bit of time to find them.

Ah, sorry about that.  I should have linked to it directly.  Thanks.

origamiscienceguy:

Quote from: origamiscienceguy on November 08, 2015, 02:13:27 pm

WAIT A SECOND!!!

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 05:17:43 pm

I'M ALIVE! cue dancing
Yeah i didn't receive any results so the jailor had to have jailed me

So the question is how should we procced to find scum?

AND LATER...

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 08, 2015, 01:20:04 am

i investigated tomasque it said he was town/notmafia

AbstractTraitorhero This is a complete contradiction. Lynch all Liars.

You seem to skipped over a post.

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 05:45:23 pm

Oh and nevermind
Hector13 i didn't actually investigate you thats what i get for not saving pms i send
Actually i investigated Tomasque he is Innocent/not mafia

Quote from: hector13 on November 05, 2015, 05:43:12 pm

Ah. Who reminded you to say that?

the GMs pm dident go through. And i only got the results a minute or two ago

What do you think about this?

TolyK:
I'd still like you to answer my questions from earlier.

Quote from: Megggas on November 08, 2015, 01:12:57 am

TolyK:

Quote from: TolyK on November 06, 2015, 07:03:10 am

PPE:

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 07:29:29 pm

Quote from: hector13 on November 05, 2015, 07:24:16 pm

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

Why do you feel so strongly about ATH being scum now?  He made dumb mistakes and used faulty reasoning during Day 1 as well, but you seemed more forgiving toward him back then.  For example, you explained one of the reasons why he'd misread stuff.

Quote from: TolyK on November 03, 2015, 09:31:30 am

BTW, ATH has stated he has disgraphia (?), which makes it hard for him to write well (read too?).

You also didn't think it was a good idea to policy-lynch him during Day 2.

Quote from: TolyK on November 04, 2015, 03:42:59 pm

Given I haven't had much time lately, and Pfp, I'd say that Roo still stands in my suspicion list, plus ATH should probably not get lynched today, and not policy-lynched tomorrow unless no more info comes out. If he's a cop, having him confirm a townie and then getting lynched to confirm the townie... not the best plan.

What changed?

TheDarkStar:
You also haven't responded to some of my questions.

Quote from: Megggas on November 08, 2015, 01:12:57 am

Quote from: TheDarkStar on November 06, 2015, 08:15:37 pm

ATH is giving off a town vibe to me and he's the only one claiming cop. There's still a chance that he's lying and that we only have a jailor, but scum generally don't draw attention to themselves Day 1.

I voted for roo because, while he might have been scum defending his ally, he was also acting like scum trying to push a lynch on someone.

Why mention the fact that roo never made an outright claim if it was implied heavily enough that multiple people asked him about it?

Roo would have voted for ATH if he (roo) was the cop but not if he (roo) was scum. If ATH got lynched and flipped cop, then roo would have been the next lynch; if ATH flipped scum, roo would have been confirmed as cop. Roo's hesitancy to vote for someone he apparently knew to be scum was the main reason that I voted for him.

In your first post of Day 1, you asked Roo why he thought ATH was scum, but it was only a few posts earlier where Roo had declared ATH a troll and unvoted him.  Later, Roo posted a bunch of town reads and a null read on the "troll".  I understand how Roo's hesitancy was suspicious, but how was Roo trying to push a lynch on someone?  Why did you think at the time of your first post that Roo considered ATH to be scum?

Also, would you care to list the reasons for your suspicions and town reads?

Real life has kept me pretty busy today and I'm too tired to do much analysis at the moment.  Here's some quick remarks.

AbstractTraitorHero:

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 06, 2015, 05:11:51 pm

Quote from: hector13 on November 02, 2015, 03:57:15 pm

Well, I should say that lynching ATH isn't the only option we have if he isn't killed N1, but anyway: I would lynch ATH D2 because either:

a) he's fakeclaiming cop, and I don't see why a townie would do that.

or b) he's telling the truth, but we won't know for sure until after his flip, which requires death. If the scum don't NK him N1, they may very well do it N2 anyway, because the odds of him investigating scum increase from 2 in 7 on N1 to 1 in 2 on N2, assuming we don't lynch scum (in which case the odds drop to 1 in 4, assuming his N1 investigation is alive/1 in 5 if not) and the person investigated on N1 is still alive (otherwise it would be 2 in 5 if we missed scum/1 in 5 if not)

We wouldn't have to lynch him, necessarily, if he said who he investigated N1, in case the scum do NK him N2. That way we can focus our attention on actually finding scum rather than lynching our Cop. However, surviving to D3 would necessitate a lynch I think, because I don't think the scum would leave the cop alive for 2 nights straight. (pending flips from the D1 + 2 lynch, and the N1 + 2 NKs, obviously. Cop may flip long before then.)

PPE: NJW, and Tolyk really, there might not actually be a cop in this setup, which is another issue for us to consider. At this point I think he was fakeclaiming, but this being a BM, I'm not sure if it was a n00b town move, and I'd rather not risk losing the cop D1 if he is telling the truth. It's not a pleasant situation to be in

Think I'll stick an FoS on NJW for the moment though. You're not asking many questions, which I find bothersome.

I found a way to quote but i can only quote one quote from a previous page but this post is where i started to get a bad feeling and looking at it i don't understand why exactly basically i suspect you but reading through your posts you don't seem suspicious i mean sometimes your posts are just fluff instead of content but i feel thats a null tell I'm also slightly guilty of this at least i feel like everyonce and a while my posts are fluff instead of useful content so i think I'm suspicious of you simply becuase if your scum you could lead the town to its death.

Why do you think of hector13 as a potential "leader" of the town?  Do you think that his posts during Day 1 contributed to the Roo lynch?

TheDarkStar:

Quote from: TheDarkStar on November 06, 2015, 08:15:37 pm

ATH is giving off a town vibe to me and he's the only one claiming cop. There's still a chance that he's lying and that we only have a jailor, but scum generally don't draw attention to themselves Day 1.

I voted for roo because, while he might have been scum defending his ally, he was also acting like scum trying to push a lynch on someone.

Why mention the fact that roo never made an outright claim if it was implied heavily enough that multiple people asked him about it?

Roo would have voted for ATH if he (roo) was the cop but not if he (roo) was scum. If ATH got lynched and flipped cop, then roo would have been the next lynch; if ATH flipped scum, roo would have been confirmed as cop. Roo's hesitancy to vote for someone he apparently knew to be scum was the main reason that I voted for him.

In your first post of Day 1, you asked Roo why he thought ATH was scum, but it was only a few posts earlier where Roo had declared ATH a troll and unvoted him.  Later, Roo posted a bunch of town reads and a null read on the "troll".  I understand how Roo's hesitancy was suspicious, but how was Roo trying to push a lynch on someone?  Why did you think at the time of your first post that Roo considered ATH to be scum?

hector13:

Quote from: hector13 on November 07, 2015, 11:31:57 am

Megas, Tolyk, Tomasque, 4mask. Who is your top scum-read, and why? Who is your top town read, and why?

After rereading the posts of Day 1 while the thread was locked, I considered Tomasque to be my top scum read, followed by NJW2000.  My reasons are here.  At the moment, my feelings are mostly the same, though I'm in the process of further evaluating NJW2000, TolyK, and 4maskedwolf.

NJW2000:

Quote from: NJW2000 on November 07, 2015, 06:24:25 pm

Meggas: What do you think of the chainsaw defence mentioned above - as I've said, I am not experienced with this, and while I find scum to give ok advice on simpler things (from my last mafia - the scum I attacked helped me see the flaw in an argument I made that woulda got me lynched) I'd like your opinion.

Hector13 had already thrown a pressure vote on TDS so that TDS would answer his questions.  TDS's post seemed to originally be a response to hector13, based on the fact that his vote and questions toward you only came as a PPE.  Since TDS posts so irregularly, I'm inclined to think that was just happenstance, rather than chainsawing.  However, this is my first game and I don't think I have enough experience to offer an informed opinion.  TolyK and 4maskedwolf, what do you think about NJW's question?

TolyK:

Quote from: TolyK on November 06, 2015, 07:03:10 am

PPE:

Quote from: AbstractTraitorHero on November 05, 2015, 07:29:29 pm

Quote from: hector13 on November 05, 2015, 07:24:16 pm

Why is finding the jailor so important?

if the jailor roleblocked the mafia n1 then if we know who tge jailor is we can lynch the scum they blocked last night.

Yeah... no. Giving out who the jailer is practically leaves scum with 1 kill per day, meaning (if you're the real cop) that you only get one more investigation (this night) before dying. Then the odds are pretty bad, given random lynches (i.e. if scumhunting fails to catch scum specifically - chances-based model yadda yadda).
If you're scum, you'd of course want to get the town roles to reveal themselves.
You've consistently shown to advising strategies that benefit the scum team. This is why you are still (now?) my #1 pick.

Why do you feel so strongly about ATH being scum now?  He made dumb mistakes and used faulty reasoning during Day 1 as well, but you seemed more forgiving toward him back then.  For example, you explained one of the reasons why he'd misread stuff.

Quote from: TolyK on November 03, 2015, 09:31:30 am

BTW, ATH has stated he has disgraphia (?), which makes it hard for him to write well (read too?).

You also didn't think it was a good idea to policy-lynch him during Day 2.

Quote from: TolyK on November 04, 2015, 03:42:59 pm

Given I haven't had much time lately, and Pfp, I'd say that Roo still stands in my suspicion list, plus ATH should probably not get lynched today, and not policy-lynched tomorrow unless no more info comes out. If he's a cop, having him confirm a townie and then getting lynched to confirm the townie... not the best plan.

What changed?

I'm going to bed.  I'll probably have much more time to post during Sunday.

PPE:
origamiscienceguy:  Welcome aboard!  We definitely want to know your thoughts on the events of Day 1 and ATH's cop claim.  Can you also answer all the questions that were directed at 4maskedwolf? 

Probably ... 2 or 1, honestly. Xan plans for the good of the future, but he's been fucked over too much to be optimistic at all. Maybe later.