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Messages - Strongpoint

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1666
The Russian public is fed (or kept from being fed) a very select diet of news.

I'm not sure you can blame them, there's been a mass Pavlovian indoctrination imposed upon them since the Glorious Days Of Soviet Empire, and any let up has been slammed back in their faces as part of the attempt to reconstitute the "Good Old Days".

I'm not saying the Western media is perfect, but it's a totally different flavour.

I don't think that what they see in the news is the key to this. It should change how they react to the war not explain the lack of reaction.

For example, on Russian youtube trends, you can see a very usual set of videos. The first war-related video is #32.

1667
One thing amazes me. The Russian public pays very little attention to this war. They treat it as if it is some local operation of no significance, some political stuff that doesn't concern them

1668
A short victorious war

I love how waging a short victorious wars to solve underlying domestic issues is a solution that have been killing empires since Napoleon the third. Also big up to Putin "I'll deal with the US swiftly" after having his ass handed to him by Kiev's TDF.
Ukraine is currently bracing for a big push in the east next week, and free cities are currently shelled by russian artillery.

Also I don't know if the live map has been posted, but it's a good information source.

I think that for Putin this is way more than improving his popularity. He always referred to the collapse of the USSR as the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of XX century and was determined to undo it.

At first, he tried to achieve it with propaganda, diplomacy, economic pressure and funding pro-Russian political parties. It didn't really work in Ukraine (but hurt our attempts to fix our country) and he went for a hybrid war in 2014 when it became obvious that there is no other way to prevent Ukraine from moving further away from Russia. Even that wasn't enough to the collapse Ukrainian state...

He isn't getting younger, there are more and more rumors that he is quite ill, and he wants to remain in history as the gatherer of Russian lands.

1669
A short victorious war would be a stunningly creative solution to Russia's problem of being stuck in a short victorious war.

I also think it is a good time to invade Finland before they join NATO. Who will respect Putin should he allow a new NATO country at Russian borders?

1670
I have a strong feeling that Russians may try amphibious landing in the Budjak area with further advance around Moldova (or even invading into Moldova), joining with the Transnistria enclave.

Many indirect indications of this move - the renewed activity of the Black Sea Fleets, some rumors from the occupied Crimea, attacking a bridge that leads to this area, notorious Russian propagandist arriving in Transnistria...

1671
Quote
Their state ideology can't accept a defeat against inferior Ukrainians, against a failed state.
Strongpoint - if I may ask, how did you find the courage to stay in Ukraine? Did you consider leaving?

I am in a safe rural area away from frontlines with no infrastructure or military objects nearby. The chances of some stray cruise missile hitting me are close to zero.

Amazingly, my personal life didn't change much. I have everything - electricity, usual food, internet. If you don't count being nervous as hell for the fate of my loved ones, especially my brother who having zero military skills volunteered on day 1.

My sister and her children are in Ireland now and I'll likely join her should Russians get closer.

1672
*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.

Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Really hope you guys are right.  :-\

Oh, I am nervous, believe me. Ukraine is the first target for nukes and use of tactical nukes is way more likely than ICBM... Russia is losing this war. Their state ideology can't accept a defeat against inferior Ukrainians, against a failed state.

Russian propaganda is actively normalizing the use of nukes and it is freaking scary. USSR always had anti-nuclear war propaganda, it was unthinkable to even suggest that USSR may use nukes in any other way but for a retaliatitory strike.


One of the oddities of this war is Ukrainian forces stopping on the Russian border... If we could pursue the troops that were retreating from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the war would be going very differently, Russian front would collapse, there would be chaos in their logistics, their forces in Donbass would risk encirclement and Ukraine would occupy few Russian cities.

Nukes is what prevented this scenario from becoming reality...

1673
If Putin really decides to start a nuclear war, the odds are the first launch will just blow up over Russia, because everything they do is held together with twist ties and machismo.

Problem is that if even only 10% of Russian nukes will work as intended, it will be enough

1674
BBC reports that explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod.

Quote from: BBC
Explosions reportedly heard in Russian city

Multiple explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 40km (24 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, according to a local official.

On social media app Telegram, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said he was woken at around 03:35 on Wednesday by the sound of an explosion.

He said that while drafting his social media post he heard another three loud booms.

Gladkov later said preliminary reports indicated an ammunition depot was on fire in a rural settlement, and "no casualties among the civilian population" had been reported.

Russians really should stop smoking. It is getting expensive; Flagship, oil depots, ammunition depots...

1675
Continuing with the news spam:

Sergei Lavrov warns of danger of World War III and says that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine means that NATO is in essence engaged in war with Russia.

Quote from: The Guardian
Russia foreign minister warns of ‘real’ danger of World War III

Sergei Lavrov told Russian news agencies that Russia’s peace talks with Ukraine will continue, but that there remains a “real” danger of a third world war. The Russian foreign minister was critical of the Ukrainian president’s approach to peace talks, accusing him of “pretending” to negotiate and calling him a “good actor”.

“Good will has its limits. But if it isn’t reciprocal, that doesn’t help the negotiation process,” he said. “But we are continuing to engage in negotiations with the team delegated by Zelenskiy, and these contacts will go on.”

He said he was confident that “everything will of course finish with the signing of an accord”, but that “the parameters of this accord will be defined by the state of the fighting that will have taken place at the moment the accord becomes reality.”

The danger of a world war is real, he said. “The danger is serious, it is real, you can’t underestimate it,” Lavrov told the Interfax news agency.

Quote from: BBC
Lavrov: 'Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia'

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said deliveries of Western weaponry to Ukraine mean that the Nato alliance is "in essence engaged in war with Russia”.

In an interview aired on Monday, he said: "These weapons will be a legitimate target for Russia’s military acting within the context of the special operation.”

Lavrov also told state television: "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war."

Quote from: BBC
Lavrov: Threat of nuclear war is real

Lavrov also acknowledged there's a possibility of the conflict escalating to nuclear weapons, though he also sounded a hopeful note about the prospects of a peace accord.

Speaking to the Russian First Channel on Monday, he said Moscow wanted to avoid "artificially" elevated risks of such a conflict.

"This is our key position on which we base everything. The risks now are considerable," Lavrov said.

"I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real, And we must not underestimate it."

Lavrov also accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine of "pretending" to negotiate, calling him "a good actor”.

"If you watch attentively and read attentively what he says, you'll find a thousand contradictions," Russia’s top diplomat said.

The foreign minister said last week that Moscow was committed to avoiding a nuclear war.

On Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that Lavrov’s latest comments were an indication Russia had lost its "last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine”.

"Thus the talk of a ‘real’ danger of WWIII. This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine," he tweeted.

Days after the invasion began back on 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear forces to be on alert.

The US and its Nato allies have said they do not want direct military intervention in Ukraine, in order to avoid the risks of a Third World War.

*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.

Truth is, despite the loud talk, Russia ALWAYS swallows when answered with force. It swallowed when Turkey shot down their fighter, it swallowed when Americans annihilated a bunch of mercenaries from the Wagner group, it swallowed when Azerbaijan pounded their ally Armenia, etc.


1676
Seing second hand reports of Ukraniams on Discord being told to take their guns and go home in sevrral oblasts because their TDF units are being demobilized. Claim is that the immediate threat to those oblasts is over, and they are needed in civilian life.

After the threat of invasion from Belarus passed, there are no reasons to maintain TDF units in Western Ukraine. Zero.

And they are needed in civilian life, -45% to GDP is no joke...

1677
Orthodox Easter is tomorrow. Knowing Russians I expect something... nasty.


Also, dear religious people of Ukraine, please don't try to ignore the curfew and don't try to go to churches for the night sermon. I am sure that your God will forgive you for staying home

1678
As I said several times before, Ukraine needs to keep fighting to the last. Take back Crimea and yeet the separatist republics. Not only is it their rightful land, that's also how you get Putin to fall. I believe in you guys.

Very few people in Ukraine will support a costly offensive into Crimea. which is militarized to hell. Moving in so-called republics is possible but even then I fail to see Ukraine initiating major urban combat i Donetsk, Luhansk, Horlivka or other big cities. Not mentioning that we need quite a few major victories before going on offensive of this scale.

Our plan is to win the war of attrition against Russia. With Western help

1679
I still fail to understand what is the Russian long-term plan at this point. They simply can't win. Even if they'll reach a major success like an encirclement and destruction of Ukrainian forces in Donbas, then what?

Sure, losing ~30-50K of our best troops would be a major blow sure but it won't make Ukraine surrender. Not after it became obvious that the goal is a genocide.

1680
Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.

Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.

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