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Messages - doll

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166
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 22, 2017, 03:11:51 am »
You're talking about 'more suspicious' or 'less suspicious' but there is no such thing.
There are players who are scum and players who are not.

You've not addressed a single scenario presented.
If a scenario presented would not result in a win, explain why.
Otherwise, you have not explained why the plan will not end in a town victory.
That's what matters; the ending.
Not lynching scum right now, but lynching scum before the game ends.
If you can explain how the plan fails to do that, then you have a valid point.
Otherwise, please just take the win.

You're talking about passing the bot N3 like it's a risk, when the shield is being passed at the same time.
Stop it.
Your concern is valid if scum have two assassination bots - and they don't.

Lynching town!DA before he can scan someone does nothing to clear Leafsnail at all (as a voting player), and so gives us only the information that there are two non-Leafsnail scum voters in the game. Leafsnail still needs to be killed at some point because he isn't clear, and that breaks the ability of the actually clear players to become the voting majority.
Lynching town!Leafsnail has no negative impact and needs to be done because he can't be cleared. Leafsnail is literally the only useless player who serves only as an obstacle to reaching a clear town, and his play is the most disgusting and scummiest thing I've seen in four years. If this is his towngame, he shouldn't be playing mafia - it really is as simple as that; beyond merely gamethrowing, he's attacking the game and the players within it on a meta level, and the only purpose a mafia role has for that is if it doesn't want a co-ordinated town.
The bot is better off staying with Tiruin N3 rather than being used, even if DA is outed as non-town, since DA could still be a third party and she's safe with the bot.

There isn't any WIFOM to be had with DA dying while scanning a guard, since the lynch order is predetermined and guaranteed to result in a town victory.

The tracker goes on doll because it does nothing on webadict/4mask except confirm them as scum ... at times where they are the only candidate for scum.
Deus Asmoth is dead by the end of D4, so doll is the only non-clear candidate for the tracker which isn't strictly 100% useless.



You've made inferences about implications which can be drawn about players and called them holes in a clockwork plan.
It doesn't matter whether or not a player is scummy if they are cleared or killed before the game ends.

Decide whether or not TDS and Tiruin are town, then stop hunting and think about the plan in purely mechanical terms. If you can find a flaw, let us know. Otherwise, just follow along and take the win.

167
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 22, 2017, 12:06:32 am »
I see a problem with plans involving waiting to use the assassin bot. Namely, if the scum just so happened to have one and knew who I gave the assassin bot to they could use their assassin bot on that person. That would both bypass protections and kill someone otherwise unreachable with also removing a town-sided nightkill.

Basically, I'm hesitant to not just kill someone tonight.
...
Assassination bot does not bypass Combat Shield.
There is no situation listed where a player with an assassination both does not either have the shield or use the bot that night.
Please actually read the action proposed before commenting on it.

A town Leafsnail flip doesn't do anything for the town's read at large on DA. He could still be scum.
This literally does not matter.
Going forward with the initial assumption that Tiruin and TDS are town, the plan eliminates every player who is not mechanically clear.
If you have an actual problem with the actual plan, actually voice it.
If you have no actual problem with the actual plan, please don't comment on unrelated plays.

168
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:25:21 pm »
The doll-4maskwolf Initiative for solving Paranormal 25, 6th amendment
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops doll D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask (TBF clear) or TBF (TBF scum). Lynch confirmed scum (doll-webadict) or boop webadict then no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll, or lynch confirmed scum if doll died) or doll (if still alive) dies (lynch confirmed scum).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA and 4mask. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF (if TBF is not clear) or lynch webadict (if TBF is clear).
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a booped doll, webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If TBF is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, webadict,  a booped doll, DA, and 4mask. Lynch DA and botkill 4mask, then proceed according to TDS scenario.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.
If hector13 ever dies to a scumkill, lynch doll.

At the discretion of a clear, webadict and 4maskwolf can be swapped around in this plan.
This call can be made at virtually any time.

169
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:11:02 pm »
Quote
If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
After lynching DA and botkilling 4mask you're potentially left with 2 scum out of 5 players - a risk which, as far as I can tell, isn't remotely necessary. It's also suspicious to me that this gives scum-doll specifically an opening to win (with either TBF or webadict).
doll/TBF: After DA is lynched, at the start of that night there are seven players and TBF is confirmed scum. An outed TBF should be killed instead of 4mask, yes. This leaves doll/TBF with doll alone with 3 clears and two war vets.
doll/webadict (or 4mask): After DA is lynched, TBF is a clear war vet - even if 4mask (the wrong unclear war vet) is bot-killed, the doll-webadict team is swinging it's night action at three confirmed town channeling kills onto a shielded player and one clear war vet, and because every other player is clear the doll-webadict team can take lynches straight away.

I will propose a different strategy that does not have these weaknesses. I will start with the assumption that Tiruin is town, and that therefore Persus is not a dopp.

Let's first look at the scenario where DA is scum. In this case you can immediately assassin bot me or lynch me the next day - that's fine, since I would no longer be clear in any way and therefore a valid suspect. The remaining doppelganger would be insanely screwed in this scenario so it's wouldn't a big deal to me whether I lived or died. Being booped by Tiruin is basically a death sentence, making a kill would clear whoever Tiruin booped, not making kills would allow Tiruin to build more bots and the town to just lynch the remaining suspects one by one. This is partly why it's a good idea not to lynch a Survive result today - hitting a dopp today would be super good, and leave the dopps with no way to win pretty much regardless of third parties and their roles.

So let's move on to the scenario where DA was town. After the night we'll see whether TDS was bullshitting or not. If he was, we can lynch him and the final dopp is left in a super awful position as detailed above, with essentially no way of winning. So we should move on to the scenario where he does make the tech trade (which implicitly clears hector).

I would be cleared of being a dopp by DA's death, and we'd have 4 remaining suspects - 4mask, webadict, doll and TBF. So all we'd have to do is get rid of those 4 people to get rid of all the doppelgangers. We could do this as follows, for example (4mask, TBF and webadict can be swapped around to taste):

Night 3: doll kills himself against a PWV (has the added bonus of potentially exposing a false PWV claim). If he refused he could be lynched instead. Doing this means we get more kills against our suspects and less shots against our confirmed players from scum.
Day 4: Assuming a scumkill, 7 players are still alive with 2 mafia. That's a lylo-breaker proof/survivor proof majority. Lynch TBF
Night 4: assassinate 4mask. Note that by this point there'd have to be at least one doppelganger dead, since we killed 3 of the 4 suspects.
Day 5: Assuming a scumkill, there would be 4 players alive with 1 (known) scum. This majority is resistant to assassin bots, enchanter, body double and mind control ray (it can only force a No Lynch for the day before the mafia member gets lynched on the next). Lynch webadict

I'd also note that this plan is more resilient to a Survivor. Here the Survivor could vote with scum on day 5 (and again on day 6 after a no lynch), but it would be objectively wrong for them to do so. Because if they lynch the confirmed dopp the game ends immediately and they are guaranteed to win, while if they vote with the scum the game will continue and there's a possibility that the doppelganger will dick them over with a nightkill. Wheras in doll's plan if eg Persus is a survivor it would be safer for him to vote with the two dopps rather than vote against one of them and risk incurring the other's wrath.

Note that I haven't even gotten into how we could use guards and Tiruin's bots yet - those things would make this strategy even more safe, and give us extra chances to win "for free". If we trust Tiruin I think it's possible we should let her select one of the four suspects to boop without telling us today so that the scum has an extra chance to screw up and get caught.
I haven't got time to go over this right now, so I'll do it in twelve hours if there's even the ghost of a point.
I don't think there will be.

170
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 01:19:10 pm »
Well, that means that the tech trading parts of the plan are spot on.

171
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 09:37:46 am »
I'm going for 4-16 hours.
Please don't shorten until hector, persus and Tiruin have agreed to the plan.

172
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 09:34:47 am »
Deus Asmoth is lynched first in any of the scenarios where he doesn't die during the night, so it's largely irrelevant that he's very likely scum if Leafsnail is also.

You are correct, we could have two dopps and seven scum-siding lone dopps instead.
I'm not seriously considering these scenarios.

173
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 09:26:14 am »
The doll-4maskwolf Initiative for solving Paranormal 25, 5th amendment
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops doll D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA, 4mask, and a booped doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a scanned TBF, webadict, DA and 4mask. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF (if TBF is not clear) or lynch webadict (if TBF is clear).
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a booped doll, webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If TBF is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, webadict,  a booped doll, DA, and 4mask. Lynch DA and botkill 4mask, then proceed according to TDS scenario.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.
If hector13 ever dies to a scumkill, lynch doll.

At the discretion of a clear, webadict and 4maskwolf can be swapped around in this plan.
This call can be made at virtually any time.

Scum mind-control rays can be used to make guards ram into War Vets and convect the kill down to doll (while still giving the scum vote control over the guard).
I'm not sure what options there are which prevent this without having all War Vets go unalert (which increases a few other risks).

I strongly expect both 4maskwolf and webadict to be town (and I think that I'm town), so I'm not really worried about the final five and am happy either way.

174
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 08:57:51 am »
Since I proposed this plan with webadict as the 'last' war vet, it could also be swapped around to have 4mask be in webadict's place and 4mask in webadict's place if a doll/webadict team at the end is feared.

175
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 08:55:43 am »
There are a lot of scumteams which can win with the right roles.
doll/webadict can win with an extra kill or a roleblock though, so it is a realistic scenario.

I agree that putting the tracker on doll is a good idea - I know that I'm town, so from my point of view it makes things a lot easier if scum do have a roleblock, and webadict isn't actually using the tracker.

176
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 08:25:03 am »
4maskwolf
Strictly speaking, we could have nine exterminators currently in the game.
Any given player could be a survivor or lone dopp or spore spreader or any other third party.
...
This scenario list doesn't explain what to do if scum swing around multiple kills. An assassination bot can kill up the guard chain (though it will have a bullet flavor and so not especially implicate doll), and hector/persus can be killed with two regular kills.
Outside of the most comical situations, I don't think these scenarios are particularly hard to solve - it still takes an incredible number of kills to get through to Tiruin, and doll dying speeds up the process of moving towards all clear players.
...
I'm not super concerned about Spore Spreaders since any infestation aimed at the conga line should be getting redirected to doll (also there may be a lot of War Vets) and if plants go up TBF can be lynched if DA is dead (survive result), or a clear can be burnt in a lynch to avoid the risk.


177
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 07:56:10 am »
Thanks for the catch.
Reposting for clarity.

Mayor doll's amended plan for solving Paranormal 25, 4mask's amendment (3rd Amendment)
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops webadict D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.]

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, a booped webadict, DA, 4mask, and doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a scanned TBF, a booped webadict, DA and 4maskwolf. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask, then lynch webadict and TBF in whatever order makes sense.
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, doll, a booped webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If TBF is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin-TDS, a booped webadict, doll, DA, and 4mask. Lynch DA and botkill 4mask, then proceed according to TDS scenario.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.
If hector13 dies to scumkill lynch doll

178
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 07:34:10 am »
Mayor doll's amended plan for solving Paranormal 25, second amendment
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops webadict D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

After this, TheDarkStar and the guards-and-Tiruin bloc (minus doll) will be clear.
DA scans are clear of being dopps after DA dies.
Players Tiruin tracks through a night with one dopp are clear.

It takes two kills to kill hector13, two to kill Persus13 and unlimited to kill Tiruin, so all in all it's a fairly safe play in terms of unknown scum killing potential.
A scum assassination drone would get around Bodyguard protection. In such a case, things get a lot uglier, but I think it should be salvageable.
We can discuss that when it shows up, though.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, a booped webadict, DA, 4mask, and doll. Lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask. Lynch TBF if he isn't clear, and no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a scanned TBF, a clear TDS, a booped webadict, DA and TBF. Lynch DA and bot-kill TBF, then no-lynch until the shield breaks (lynch doll) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TDS, doll, a booped webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If 4maskwolf is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TDS, a booped webadict, doll, TBF, DA, and 4mask. Lynch doll the second hector's shield breaks, otherwise lynch 4mask and have DA scan an unalert TBF. If doll dies, lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask (then lynch webadict after that) or webadict (if 4mask is clear). If DA dies, lynch TBF then proceed with the doll-webadict no-lynch plan.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.



The only change I had to make was using the bot to perform the lynch that was going to be there, and lynching DA instead.
It's pretty well the same thing but slightly less reliable for unexpected later developments.

179
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 07:26:29 am »
Uh I seem to be missing DA in half my scenario's.
I'll be rewriting it, but it might not still work

4maskwolf
Correct

180
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 07:18:04 am »
I still believe that not going on alert is silly, but if TBF is the one doing it, don't care.
Scum have a lot of people they want to kill and I very much doubt they have enough kills to do so.
Extend for votes and for Meph confirmation of tech-trading mechanics.

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