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Messages - doll

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181
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 06:53:39 am »
Mayor doll's plan revised for solving Paranormal 25
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops webadict D3.
TheBiggerFish lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans TheBiggerFish N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

After this, TheDarkStar and the guards-and-Tiruin bloc (minus doll) will be clear.
DA scans are clear of being dopps after DA dies.
Players Tiruin tracks through a night with one dopp are clear.

It takes two kills to kill hector13, two to kill Persus13 and unlimited to kill Tiruin, so all in all it's a fairly safe play in terms of unknown scum killing potential.
A scum assassination drone would get around Bodyguard protection. In such a case, things get a lot uglier, but I think it should be salvageable.
We can discuss that when it shows up, though.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TBF, a booped webadict, 4mask, and doll. Lynch 4mask and sit on no-lynch until scum are forced to attack and either hector's shield breaks (lynch doll and bot-kill webadict) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TBF, a clear TDS, a booped webadict and TBF. Lynch 4mask then bot-kill webadict.
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TDS, doll, a booped webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If 4maskwolf is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TDS, a booped webadict, doll, TBF, DA, and 4mask. Lynch doll the second hector's shield breaks, otherwise lynch 4mask and have DA scan an unalert TBF. If doll dies, lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask (then lynch webadict after that) or webadict (if 4mask is clear). If DA dies, lynch TBF then proceed with the doll-webadict no-lynch plan.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
If TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks or a shieldless hector dies, lynch doll.

182
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 06:51:01 am »
Quote from: Leafsnail on February 21, 2017, 06:20:53 am
Lynching me actively works against the breaking strategy you're proposing,
How?

Quote from: Leafsnail on February 21, 2017, 06:20:53 am
When you say I am 'anti-town' what you mean is I am not blindly trusting you as being town. That's why you have to kill me in spite of it being a mechanically awful idea. I really hope you're scum because if not the town will have to defeat both you and the doppelgangers.
Actually the reason you die first is because you've claimed vanilla townie, which if the claim is true will mean that having you alive does nothing to help town.
We can't clear you of potential survivordom with a telepath check, you are the most likely of the players in the game to be a survivor based on your play (I could explain why, though I'm sure you already know most of it), and it's probably the largest technical risk at this point in the game.

Nobody knew that War Vets could show up survive, based on our posts up to that point, so it's less likely (for meta reasons, again) that the war vets are actually survivors. They might be lone dopplegangers, however.

TBF can't be a survivor if DA is town, so I was wrong, and I'll rewrite the plan with a minor edit to make sure that TBF is the preferred war vet to have alive as a clear.

You're still voting me.
Am I still the best lynch target?
If not, who is?

183
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:55:49 am »
EBWOP:
scum!TDS means hector has no shield, so I guess it's actually 'if hector dies from the scumkill, lynch doll' or something, but we can go over that in the unlikely event that it happens.
We only need two clears rather than three once scum!TDS is dead and can clear much more easily with DA/Tiruin, so it should be a relatively tame situation to break if it does come up.

184
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:25:32 am »
It goes without saying, but if TDS fails to hand over the tech, he's scum and get's lynched first, then DA, then non-clears until the doll-webadict stall endgame. If hector's shield breaks, lynch doll.

185
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:22:04 am »
Just so it's out there right away:
There is no need for Tiruin to use the Assassination Bot tonight.
Plenty of players, myself included, are happy and willing to leave the game in the hands of Tiruin's town-ness.
Tiruin is not going to die while the guard congo line remains intact.
Having players like Deus Asmoth get nightkilled moves the game towards the guards-and-Tiruin bloc outnumbering players outside of said group.
If scum kill DA or his target instead of doll/TDS, then there are literally 8 players, five of whom are in my guards-and-Tiruin bloc or clear (TDS).
...
I'm actually pretty happy with this mechanical solution, and I stumbled across it entirely.

Mayor doll's plan for solving Paranormal 25
Lynch Leafsnail D3.
Tiruin boops webadict D3.
4maskwolf lowers alert N3.
Deus Asmoth mindscans 4maskwolf N3.
TheDarkStar gives the shield to Tiruin and the assassination bot to Tiruin N3 - this protects her from scum Assassination bots.
N4 Tiruin gives the shield to hector13 and either uses the bot or gives it to hector13.

After this, TheDarkStar and the guards-and-Tiruin bloc (minus doll) will be clear.
DA scans are clear of being dopps after DA dies.
Players Tiruin tracks through a night with one dopp are clear.

It takes two kills to kill hector13, two to kill Persus13 and unlimited to kill Tiruin, so all in all it's a fairly safe play in terms of unknown scum killing potential.
A scum assassination drone would get around Bodyguard protection. In such a case, things get a lot uglier, but I think it should be salvageable.
We can discuss that when it shows up, though.

If TDS is the scumkill and dies, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear 4mask, a booped webadict, TBF, and doll. Lynch TBF and sit on no-lynch until scum are forced to attack and either hector's shield breaks (lynch doll and bot-kill webadict) or doll dies (lynch webadict).
If doll is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear 4mask, a clear TDS, a booped webadict and TBF. Lynch TBF then bot-kill webadict.
If Deus Asmoth is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TDS, doll, a booped webadict, TBF and 4mask. Lynch 4mask and bot-kill TBF, then proceed to no-lynch until scum are forced out as per the TDS scenario.
If 4maskwolf is the scumkill, this leaves the clear hector-persus-Tiruin, a clear TDS, a booped webadict, doll, TBF, DA, and 4mask. Lynch doll the second hector's shield breaks, otherwise lynch TBF and have DA scan an unalert 4mask. If doll dies, lynch DA and bot-kill 4mask (then lynch webadict after that) or webadict (if 4mask is clear). If DA dies, lynch 4mask then proceed with the doll-webadict no-lynch plan.
If something unexpected happens, figure it out at that time I guess.
Can you see any problem with my plan, Leafsnail?

186
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 03:06:36 am »
Meph
1) If player A trades a combat shield to player B during Night X, and player A is targeted for a kill, does the shield break, and is player B told the trade was successful?
2) As above, but player B is killed instead.

187
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:24:53 am »
Meph:
That extension was a mistake.
Thank you for pointing that out.
Retract Extension
Here's why we should lynch Leafsnail:
We're going to do it eventually.
That's it.

I am actually going to make a case against Leafsnail because I do actually think he might be a survivor and that's one of the things which could quite easily break the three-guards-and-Tiruin congo line.

188
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 21, 2017, 02:03:32 am »
There is no mechanical information in the game.
Literally every claim is based on assumptions about other player's play.
There is no scenario that could be used to clear any other player.
There is no scenario that could be used to confirm the guilt of another player.
Methodological doubt has it's place in mafia. It is useful for breaking setups mechanically.
This day is not a scenario which can be broken mechanically.
Right this second every other player in the game could have an anti-town objective.
Tiruin knows nothing about other players.
DA has no way of knowing whether or not a player is scum (or scum siding, as it so often is called).
TheDarkStar alone has mechanical information on another living player. I do not believe that TheDarkStar truly knows which player he has mechanical information on. This information in any case exists only in the mind of TDS. To every other player it is nothing more than a claim.
The mind of the other is an opaque and ever changing thing. There exists a fundamental ambiguity about what is the correct thing to do.
All posts are a form of action, and thus carry an intent, which, being divorced from the product, does not exist in the mind of the other - at most, there can be an image of an intent.
It is this impression which is used to influence the mind of the other.
It does not matter if this direction of influence is the goal of the other - by nature, the influence of another is the swaying of the direction of the thought of intent of the other.
In my next post I am going to convince you to lynch Leafsnail.
Allow me to be clear from the outset: I do not care what his role is.
I do not care if Leafsnail is indeed a Vanilla townie. Indeed, that is a reason to prefer killing him over killing many other players.
At this point, he has established that he fully intends to play against the town. He can be considered, at best, a survivor - that is, a player who may not be scum but still votes against and plays against the interests of the town.
For those who would presume that Tiruin is town:
Hector should hold the combat shield.
doll will protect hector13 will protect Persus13 will protect Tiruin.
If a kill occurs upstream of doll, either a hostile roleblock exists, or doll is scum.
It is presumed that a hostile roleblock does not exist.
If hector13 + Persus13 + Tiruin, as a set of town, are delivered into the final five, then town has solved the game and can kill their way through the scum with lynches.
Extend

189
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 20, 2017, 02:25:17 pm »
It's going to be twelve hours again before I can meaningfully post, so for now you can have this:
unvote
Now that we have a full list of claims, we can actually proceed on a somewhat mechanical basis.
Quote from: Leafsnail on February 20, 2017, 08:38:11 am
Also TDS should give both of his techs to Tiruin. We should not tolerate them going to a completely unconfirmed player like doll, or him firing off his assassin bot without confirming that it's a tradeable alien tech.
Correction - TDS should give Assassination bot to Tiruin and have Tiruin use the Assassination bot. This is explicitly possible as per the roles list explanation of tech trading.
I'm not sure what the best short and long term uses of the Personal Combat Shield are.

Quote from: Leafsnail on February 20, 2017, 01:57:38 pm
You need to explain why you're ignoring the Survive result on me if you vote for me. If I am a dopp, Deus Asmoth is also a dopp. If he is a dopp, I am not necessarily a dopp. So a lynch on him is strictly better since it will either clear me or hit a dopp.
Leafsnail is correct that the relatively high kill priority of town!DA and his future use in clearing more people will make it likely that Leafsnail's survive result will be confirmed.
Though scum!DA and survivor!Leafsnail are both realistic possibilities, Leafsnail is correct that he isn't the best choice for a D3 lynch as I can currently see it.
I'll still explain my case against him when I post later.
Quote from: Leafsnail on February 20, 2017, 01:57:38 pm
That said there's another much more scary possibility that occurred to me today that I will detail in my next post. There is a third party role who could screw us up, and it's not the Survivor like doll would want you to believe. In fact I find it strange that doll has not yet mentioned it if he's gotten to thinking about third parties.
If you're talking about Spore Spreader - I mentioned it both D1 and D2.
I confirmed with Meph in a PM during D2 that a guard's protect prevents infester's infection.
On this account, War Vets and the profusion of guards (guarding Tiruin in particular if she's not infected from N1) make infesters a relatively low priority.
The jester style spore spreaders can be largely defeated by lynching a 'survive' result.

If you're referring to Hivemind, it is my stated intent to side with Hivemind if there is one since I'm pretty high on the convert list (though lower than I used to be) and I suspect a Hivemind would win at this point.

190
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 - Part 2.5 - Not yet A Really Long Post
« on: February 20, 2017, 05:38:11 am »
Part 2.5: Mechanical precursor to A really long post:
The actual scenario of each player:
Easily Confirmed:
TheDarkStar - will be truly clear in the mind of whoever he gives the small tech to after N3. Will be confirmed as having an Assassination bot after N3. - Agent Operative
hector13 - is truly clear in the minds of any who consider TheDarkStar to be truly clear - Observant Guard
Meta-Clear (i.e. not clear at all):
Tiruin - scum if Persus13 wouldn't give a survive result
doll
webadict
Persus13 - survive result if Tiruin is town
Not Meta-Clear:
4maskwolf
TheBiggerFish
Deus Asmoth - scum if Leafsnail wouldn't give a survive result
Leafsnail - survive result if DA is town
Survivors are the equivalent of dopps for most mechanical purposes (actually they're worse, since they could have killing items).
One thing in particular which is noteable about survivors is that they will show up as having a survive result, and cannot be found by ATD.
In contrast, War Vets will show up as having a kill result.
Since there are potentially unlimited survivors masquerading as war vets, as well as Leafsnail and Persus13, this is the largest single impediment to solving the setup today.
A tough Doppleganger would also cause some concern, but it would confirm it's existence once it kills a war vet.
Persus and Leafsnail have to claim.
The reason this is imperative is that of the 8 players with claimed roles, only doll and hector should be able to visit someone without a visible effect (dopp or war vet kill).
As such, Town Tiruin can effectively clear players by using an ATD on them. This is of particular importance once one scum is dead.
Town Deus Asmoth has the power to detect dopplegangers amongst the non-war-vet's performing the night kill.
Deus Asmoth can't be scumkilled if Deus Asmoth is scum.
Town Deus Asmoth being scumkilled would indicate that Leafsnail isn't a dopp.
I (doll) can kill myself during the night by visiting a war vet.
Unfortunately, this precludes my protecting another player.
Deus Asmoth can confirm my ability to do so by detecting my goal as 'protect'.
Delivering TDS and hector into the final three is a wincon for town.
Tiruin's death clears every player (who didn't visit the scumkill) who had an ATD on them during a night where there was one dopp and Tiruin survived.
DA's death clears every (non-kill) player who he inspected during a night where there was one dopp and DA survived.
If these players are non-visiting roles / 'survive' results they could still be survivors and thus the most dangerous type of scum.
Persus13
It is an absolute imperative that you claim.
This goes for Leafsnail as well, but much of that need is ameliorated by the fact that I've got no real problem with lynching him at present. I'll explain why in detail in Part 3.

191
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring - Part 2 - Darkness Without
« on: February 20, 2017, 01:18:45 am »
Part 2: Darkness Without
Herein I examine the case where all of the meta-clear players are taken as town - incidentally, I've known the role of every player in this list since Night 2.
Cases on every player in the game will be made during part 3.
These players, hereafter referred to as 'village players' are:
doll - observant guard
webadict - war vet
Tiruin - has 1 ATD, 2 nights to next ATD
TheDarkStar - agent operative, has an assassination bot and a small tech I'll leave unspecified for now
hector13 - observant guard
Things that that village players have told us about others:
Persus13 - survive goal
Remaining scum are therefore chosen from the pool of:
Leafsnail
Deus Asmoth
TheBiggerFish
4maskwolf
If Deus Asmoth is not scum, then Leafsnail is not scum, though he may still be scum-siding.
In such a case, clearing DA lifts the need to kill Leafsnail, and leaves a TBF-4mask scumteam.
This is a simple enough scenario that ATDing 4mask, lynching DA, techkilling TBF and lynching whichever of Leafsnail or 4mask isn't clear would solve the game.

192
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 - Part 1 - What is known
« on: February 20, 2017, 12:55:24 am »
Because Jack AT is a cool guy and all active players could do well to emulate his spirit, I'll split this post into three parts and post them as they are finished.

Part 1 - What is known:
First up: player roles:
hector13 - claimed observant guard, seconded by TDS's scanner claim, TDS (and thus hector) will be clear by Day 4
TheDarkStar - claimed Agent Operative, scanned hector13, PM'd hector his role D2, PM'd doll hector's humanity N2, outed his tech to doll and hector13 D3, will clear self by Day 4
Tiruin - claimed Intelligence Scientist,  isn't a war vet
Persus13 - Tiruin claims to have a (Shakeragian) telepath inspect result of survive on Persus13, Persus13 claims the result is based on his action from Night 1 alone
Deus Asmoth - softclaimed telepath with unkown results on Leafsnail and TBF, leafsnail claims Deus Asmoth is a telepath with survive result on Leafsnail
doll - claimed Observant Guard to webadict D1, claimed Observant Guard publicly D2
webadict - claimed War Vet to doll during RVS, noting that he would turn his guns off during N1, claims war vet who has left his guns off this whole time
Leafsnail - claims Deus Asmoth contacted him D2 regarding a 'survive' mindscan result DA had on leafsnail, claims not to be survivor
4maskwolf - claims war vet D3, with guns on every night
TheBiggerFish - claims war vet D3, with guns on every night
Choice questions:
I'll only answer some (and they'll be answered by the later parts anyhow) but certain things may be useful for someone other than myself to understand my reasoning on right this second:
Quote from: hector13 on February 19, 2017, 11:42:08 pm
doll

How come you're voting Leafsnail? you seem to think they're a survivor, which worst case gives us 3 players against if they side with the dopps, and there's still 10 players left so... there doesn't seem much threat from a scum-siding survivor at this point.
Survivor is a scum role.
That said:
In my prior post, I essentially outed that in my view the high risk dopps were Leafsnail, Deus Asmoth, TheBiggerFish, or 4maskwolf, here arranged in the order of scummyness as I saw them at that time (and right now, since I haven't produced major analysis since then).
Notice that the player who has the 'survive' result on Leafsnail is second in that list?
The chance of a Leafsnail-Deus Asmoth scumteam is not inconsiderable.
At the same time, DA might be scum and have a legitimate 'survive' result on Leafsnail.
DA could be entirely unaware that Leafsnail is scum (siding), and outing his result for all the usual reasons (i.e. appearing authentic) that one would do so as scum.
Pretty well everything which applies to scum!DA also applies to town!DA.
Leafsnail is extremely far from clear, despite whatever misconceptions otherwise he might hold and/or be trying to sell, so he's not a bad lynch in the general case anyhow.
Quote from: 4maskwolf on February 19, 2017, 09:22:47 pm
doll: Is War Veteran the role webadict claimed to you early D1?
Yes.
He also noted in that first claim that he intended to leave his guns off N1. We didn't talk about it since then (actually we haven't communicated out of the thread since the edge of RVS).
Persus13
Is it at all possible that Tiruin is lying about the inspect on you?

193
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 19, 2017, 03:09:19 pm »
Quote from: Leafsnail on February 19, 2017, 03:00:20 pm
@doll: Your claims are as follows:
- webadict, Tiruin, doll, hector13, TheDarkStar are all town
- 4maskwolf and Persus13 are probably town
- I am a survivor
So by process of elimination you are saying that the remaining dopplegangers are exactly Deus Asmoth and TheBiggerFish. Is that accurate? Are you going to build a case for why this is a plausible team?
DA either has a 'survive' on you or is scum with you. Either way, he shouldn't be visiting anyone and Tiruin can confirm that.
TheBiggerFish is as anti-town as he ever was.
Either has some role which over-rides his scummyness or he's scum with DA.

This is actually a really viable scumteam.
Thanks for that, Leafsnail, it really clears things up.

I'll build my huge wall of text to paint TBF and DA as 100% confirmed scum (to use IO's expression) in about twelve hours.

4maskwolf
You can send your role to one or all of those players, it shouldn't make a difference.
If it does, then that's probably more helpful than the negative effect of any doubt it casts on you.
As in all cases, do what you think is the right thing to do.

194
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 19, 2017, 02:48:09 pm »
Quote from: Leafsnail on February 19, 2017, 02:42:44 pm
This feels like some kind of Trump-esque "post-truth" strategy from doll. Like if you say something often and forcefully enough people will believe you even if you have no basis for saying it.
Outsider candidate? check
Makes lots of outrageous claims? check
Background in executive leadership? check
Strong use of multiple types of media? check
I guess that makes me the next King of the Mafia.

195
Mafia / Re: Paranormal 25 - Day 3 brings no sign of Spring
« on: February 19, 2017, 02:43:44 pm »
EBWOP: AGAIN:
4maskwolf
Your section should read:
4maskwolf
Nobody knows what your role as far as I am aware, but you're probably town.
Send your fullclaim to:
webadict
Tiruin
doll
hector13
TheDarkStar
After DA is cleared by Tiruin's continued existence, non-'village' targets become:
Leafsnail - alien survivor or VT
4maskwolf - unknown
Persus13 - mad scientist or mad scientist
TheBiggerFish - about to claim and have the category of his claim confirmed by DA.
Quote from: Leafsnail on February 19, 2017, 02:39:03 pm
Don't PM anything to doll or webadict. They are not clear in any way.
That ship has sailed.
Players could stop PMing things to me, but I don't think anyone other than you and I are prepared to actually commit to the sort of slog that kind a a methodological game would present, which I base mostly on that fact that they have PM'd so much to me.
Bonus note:
Tiruin
When I said 'suboptimal' I meant 'suboptimal from a random walk perspective' rather than actually suboptimal play.
(i.e. you would use at times use psychologically rather than mechanically safe play)

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