Bay 12 Games Forum

Toony - One-Shot Day Poisoner, are you serious?
Roden - claims Tracker with restriction, seems willing to use it
Jack - claims some active pro-town ability, seems willing to be tracked
Vector - no claim
Metruption - no claim
NJW - no claim
Tric - claims psychologist with a one-shot redirect onto themselves


Even if I hit mafia they won't die until the end of the next day which means town can still be endgamed if it's lylo, plus they'll know they were poisoned and there's probably someone else in the game with an antidote to balance it.

 

Day 1 results:

 

Player motivations:

I trust Roden who believes in Jack.
I trust Jack based on their behavior.

If I trust Vector then I shouldn't believe in Tric.
I don't feel as good about Tric.


 

Reads:

 

Night 1 prediction:

Me, Jack, or Roden dies

 

Night 1 results:

Me and Tric became lovers, nobody died.
 

N1 Claims:

Toony - One-Shot Day Poisoner, did nothing
Roden - Tracker with restrictions, tracked Jack who targeted Toony
Jack - Jailkeeper, jailed Toony
Vector - Ascetic, did nothing
Metruption - something to do with the dead, this implies they did nothing N1
NJW - Watcher with restrictions, watched Toony and saw that Tric and Jack targeted him
Tric - One-Shot(?) Redirector, redirected Toony onto Jack

 
I trust Jack over Roden here, if one is mafia then it's always Roden.

Tric is the most suspicious mechanically, but his behavior is insane. A Tric/NJW mafia is just insane if you consider the end of Day 1.


If Tric really is the lovers culprit then he's with Vector, Met, or Roden. It's not with Jack or NJW.



Levels of suspicion:
 

Low Level
Jack - not suspicious at all unless with exactly Roden, but you would always vote Roden first here
Tric - not suspicious at all for now, this will become more and more suspicious over time if they are not killed (especially if I'm dead already)
 

Mid Level
Met - on the fence
Roden - on the fence
NJW - the way they slammed down results on D2 was really towny unless their role is some absurd watcher/lovers combo


High Level
Vector - could be mafia with most players, probably not Roden though


There may be exactly one mafia inside Tric/Vector

Jack/Met is unlikely
Jack/Vector is unlikely
Jack/NJW is unlikely
Jack/Tric is unlikely
Jack/Roden is the most probable by far but it's too obvious

 

N2 prediction:

Mafia should always kill Jack here, it's too risky to go for me or Tric tonight even if they could get the twofer.

NJW might watch Jack if he's thinking the same thing I am. I'm not sure he should listen to Roden's suggestion.

 

Night 2 results (so far):

NJW became lovers with Tric, nobody died again.



N2 claims:

Toony - One-Shot Day Poisoner, did nothing again
Roden - Roaming Tracker, tracked Tric who did nothing
Jack - Jailkeeper, jailed Toony again
Vector - Ascetic, I assume they did nothing again
Metruption - something to do with the dead, this implies they did nothing N2 as well
NJW - Watcher with unknown restrictions, did nothing because of restriction
Tric - One-Shot(?) Redirector, did nothing?