Bay 12 Games Forum

Toony are you sure those mushrooms didn't give you town!NQT's analytical powers?

I told 4mask to give NQT a chance if I was killed last night.

They chose poorly.

Reads

Town
Vector - genius scum with Tric or...town. Would have to figure out to kill 4maskwolf on N1, then fake-claim a mafia result on NQT to have them reveal themselves as lovers with me which would nail them another two town. Vector pushed a case on NQT during D1 so inspecting them N1 isn't odd.
TricMagic - genius scum with Vector or...town and really did track Vector to NQT N1.
Secret - mafia tried to frame them on D1, NQT and FoU pushed for their lynch D1.
Jim - confirmed town by Secret. 4maskwolf mindmelded with them. Suspicious of FoU on D1.
Toaster - wouldn't get matchmake'd by NQT on D1 with Toony. Suspicious of NQT on D1.
Caz - very consistent and active when they aren't WASTED. Completely destroyed NQT with me, at the bottom of the town list because they could possibly be bussing NQT here but it's so unlikely unless FoU is town.

Neutral
Blue - super shady, but doesn't fit into a three person mafia team. Newb town?

Scum
Reverie - kept pushing that Tric was the 4mask killer, but then Tric came out with information that definitely confirms they tracked Vector (I know this because Vector targeted me on D1). NQT put Rev as scum on D1, but never voted them. Only Vector voted Reverie with an actual case no less. FoU lists as town on D1. Is most likely the 4mask killer.
FoU - not going to repeat myself from D1, new stuff for D2 is they're defending NQT and want to lynch Caz instead.
NQT - confirmed liar, many other reasons

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Day 1 (and 2) Observations

Shortly after the countdown and mansion appear, NQT accuses Secret, then Fallacy claims the mansion, then NQT points the finger at Secret:

This means Secret cast the totally-not-ominous countdown.

This ain't no D1 bus. Also coordinates well with Fallacy.

Here NQT says Lucky is an easy lynch and that we could chain-lynch three players that voted Lucky:

So if Lucky flips town/third-party then someone in the [Reverie -> Secret -> Bluarian] is structurally a good fit for scum. Might be win-win to try out this theory... but most of all I want to hear what Secret has to say about this countdown.

Reverie first, then Secret, then Blue. This list probably has at least one scum that he would have used for a future bus if he wasn't outed on D2 by Vector. NQT knew Lucky would flip town/third-party after all...

FoU's reads at the end of Day 1 are Caz and Jim plus one other, their town reads are Reverie, ToonyMan, 4maskwolf, and Vector.

My guess is it's Caz and Jim Groovester, along with some third mafia member who's doing a better job at fitting in.
Caz is incredibly intuition-focused, without a hint of logical reasoning in their plays, as far as I have seen. Jim is hyperfixated on my mansion and daykill claims.
Caz: are you responsible for the countdown?
Jim Groovester: If I'm scum, who're my buddies?
My favored town-suspects are Reverie, ToonyMan, 4maskwolf, and Vector, in order of 'I trust this person the most.' The rest are somewhere in the null middle.

Caz and Jim are strong town but FoU says they're the scum team. FoU stick their buddy Rev in with their town reads.

On Day 2 FoU deduces that Caz, Secretdorf, and Blue are suspicious.
I think Blue is likely newb town as they can't have performed the kill unless in cahoots with Jim who would need to be in cahoots with Secret and now we have 4 mafia because NQT is mafia too. Caz and Secret of course are clean.

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Vote Analysis

Near End of Day 1 Votes:

Caz - 1 - BluarianKnight
FallacyofUrist - 4 - ToonyMan, Jim Groovester, Reverie, 4maskwolf
Jim Groovester - 1 - Luckyowl
Luckyowl - 5 - notquitethere, Caz, Secretdorf, TricMagic, Vector
notquitethere - 1 - Toaster
Secretdorf - 1 - FallacyofUrist

End of Day 1 Votes:

Caz - 1 - FallacyofUrist
FallacyofUrist - 4 - ToonyMan, Jim Groovester*, Reverie, 4maskwolf
Jim Groovester - 1 - Luckyowl
Luckyowl - 6 - notquitethere, Caz, Secretdorf, TricMagic, Vector, BluarianKnight
notquitethere - 1 - Toaster

*Jim only switched off FoU to Lucky to prevent ties.

Day 2 Votes Currently:

Caz - 1 - FallacyofUrist
notquitethere - 5 - Toaster, Reverie, Caz, Vector, BluarianKnight
Vector - 1 - notquitethere

Not Voting - 5 - ToonyMan, Secretdorf, Jim Groovester, TricMagic, Fakerag

Reverie is pretty gutsy, but this looks okay to me otherwise.

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What happened Night 1? Who killed 4maskwolf?

(Stolen and edited from Jim Grovestore)

Reverie does nothing

Caz tries to action I assume, gets jailed.
FallacyofUrist jails Caz.

Jim Groovester actions ToonyMan, Toony can't confirm.
Toaster actions Jim, gets redirected to ToonyMan, also shrooms notquitethere for D2.
ToonyMan mushrooms Toaster, gets speed boost from Toaster
BluearianKnight tracks Jim Groovester, sees him visit ToonyMan, also gets correct flavor about Jim

TricMagic tracks Vector, Vector visits notquitethere. This is confirmed by Toony, so unless Tric and Vector are both scum it's clean.
Vector inspects notquitethere, sees mafia.
Secretdorf blocks notquitethere, captures one action into two wands (one was a full role-inspect confirmed by Toony on Caz, other was an alignment inspect confirmed by Secret on Jim).
notquitethere tries to rolecop Vector, gets blocked, this is likely a legit claim by NQT. They tried to full inspect Vector because the scum team is wary of them, but got blocked by Secret.


Toaster and Toony were clearly redirected into each other here. Matchmake is a Day only ability that NQT almost certainly used on D1, this caused Toony to target Toaster (as intended) and Toaster to be redirected from Jim to Toony N1.

This heavily implies that Toony and Toaster aren't mafia, as NQT would want to Matchmake two town for maximum control.

Every single player is confirmed doing their action besides Reverie.

Reverie killed 4maskwolf.

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Okay I'm tired. I'll stop here.

Scum team is NQT/FoU/Rev.

I would still like to hear more people's thoughts before Day end.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 25, 2021, 08:21:50 pm

The alignment inspect component is so that mafia can find harmful third-parties.

So do you think it's more than just LuckyOwl? There could be a second SK, a mafia-ally, or even a cult leader (though that last one seems unlikely given the player balance).

Maybe, but I'm going to say no.

You done Toony?

No. I haven't made my end of Day 2 reads yet.

Toony:  Can you explain why on Secret?

NQT is definitely a cop of some sort. I believe that Secret blocked NQT last night and got two wands. The wand he gave me was a full role-cop inspect which I believe is at least one thing NQT tried to do last night.

This means that:
1. Secret didn't perform the kill
2. Secret blocked a mafia member and got a one-shot of their ability
3. Gave this wand to a town player

NQT was also aggressively pursuing a Secret lynch on D1 which screams mislynch to me.

It's possible they're mafia, but I would trust Secret above Rev, FoU, and Blue.

How did you learn about it anyway? I assume you got a PM, which would mean no-one spoke up about it.

MUSHROOMS

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Interestingly enough, I think I've figured out we must have a second 3rd party, as there's a pretty big thing no one has claimed and I'm not sure why. Hell, maybe its Vector. That would explain a lot.

NQT is confirmed mafia and knows it. We need to disregard anything he says now.

We can still use their older posts, but these new ones are going to be invalid.

Hold on.

Matchmake is a Day only ability so if NQT did the Toony/Toaster redirect it would have been during D1. It goes off that night.

Oh sorry you meant Toaster targeting Jim going to me.

Yeah I don't know why that happened...

This is why we shouldn't hammer yet.

NQT will 100% self hammer if you put him at L-1, so if you're scum and want to deny town the ability to talk then go ahead.