Bay 12 Games Forum

*lights cigarette*

Looks like this vig has smoked his last...go town.

If SBC flips town I'm fairly convinced the scum team is Makeinu and Elephant Parade, but we'll see.  I'm leaving Scientist's decision up to him, but I would urge him to block Elephant Parade.

Either me or Scientist are going to die tonight if the scum have brains so the surviving one of us can handle the next day.  Town should win if we play well.

PFB (posting from bed)

If I'm town, do you mind shooting Makeinu?

If you're town?  Okay sure.  Scientist can choose to block Elephant Parade or NativeForeigner.

I don't mind a SBC lynch.

If SBC flips mafia I am not shooting tonight.  Scientist, you can do whatever.  I would advice blocking somebody you think is scum though.

If SBC flips town I'm going to shoot Elephant Parade.  Scientist, you block NativeForeigner or Makeinu.  I say either or because if NF and Makeinu are the scum team then they'll kill with the player you aren't blocking.  Don't state who you are blocking.

If you see any problems with this plan you can speak up.  I'll also consider shooting NativeForeigner instead and have you choose between Elephant Parade or Makeinu if you want to.

@Makeinu:
Hmm, you make a good point.  NativeForeigner may want a Scientist lynch because he is in fact hiding his role.  And PufferFish/Scientist not making an action Night 1 is pretty suspect.

However, I'm not going to vote Scientist unless NF's explicitly states this.  That way, if we lynch Scientist and he actually is town Jailkeeper, NF is lying and I can shoot him.  But if we keep things implied I can't consider that enough to shoot.

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@Superblackcat:

E is earlier in the alphabet than N

That's pretty silly, but I can see why'd you say that since if you believe what I'm saying it doesn't matter whether it's Elephant Parade or Nativeforeigner, they would be both scum to you.

Still, it's nice to give reasons.  However, a bit early you say this, which sort of implies that you think NativeForeigner is town, what are your thoughts now?  Also, Superblackcat for now.

Okay first, Makeinu isn't scum because his play all game has felt genuine and involved.  If he's scum then he got me, but I don't really see it...

Getting the scum reads of the final 3 suspects I think is vital, since as Makeinu pointed out and I seemed to not realize, is that today is mylo.  If we mislynch we'll be down to five, and if the mafia get a kill we'll be down to 4, which means town will lose.  I will almost certainly shoot tonight if we mislynch in the hopes of keeping the game alive.

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Let's see the results!

Superblackcat:

FMPOV, it's gotta be 2 between makeinu, elephant, and NF. I'm more leaning for voting one of EP or NF.

The mafia are Elephant Parade and NativeForeigner.

NativeForeigner:

Currently, I suspect scientist for reasons previously stated. I have another vague suspicion, but I want to see how that pans out before I expand on it.

The mafia are Scientist and ???.

Elephant Parade:

I find Superblackcat more suspicious, as he hasn't been asking the best questions. NF's inactivity seems genuine to me.

Superblackcat is mafia, but not NativeForeigner.

If my suspicions are correct, two of these players are scum which means they would not vote their buddy if they're sane, since that would ruin their mylo and we have Scientist and me for them to worry about.

To put it into a riddle, we need to find out who is telling the truth of the three.  Let's first interpret what everybody is saying normally:

Superblackcat - "The other two townies besides Makeinu are mafia."  SBC's accusations perfectly line up with my kind of reasoning.  For what it is, I agree with this one the most.

NativeForeigner - "I agree with Makeinu, Scientist is really suspicious!"  I don't think Makeinu is scum, but I find his suspicions of Scientist as completely paranoid since it's only possible if one of the four vanilla townies is hiding their role for no reason whatsoever.  I will not allow a Scientist lynch.  I'm guessing NF's other suspect he's concealing might be me, since outside parties might think that Scientist and I are both lying in the most cleverest ploy ever, but sadly, this is not possible.

If Scientist and I were both lying, that would make 5 Ts, 5 Ts does have an SK, but only two mafia.  Since one mafia is already dead that means one of us would be town which is also, impossible in this case.

I guess it's possible Makeinu and Nativeforeigner are the scum team, but that's my least likely pick in the possibility of picks.

Elephant Parade - "Superblackcat would be one of the mafia, I don't think NativeForeigner is."  Similar to SBC's, but with a condition that NF is probably not mafia.  The middle ground of extremes between Superblackcat and Nativeforeigner.

Now let's reverse everybody's intentions:

Superwhitecat - "Elephant Parade and NativeForeigner are town."  This really doesn't make any sense.  If SBC is mafia they would have to be hiding their intentions on who actually is mafia, since one of Elephant Parade or NativeForeigner is almost certainly mafia.  This is a very common mafia tactic.

ForeignNative - "Scientist is town."  I can agree with this.  I suppose this also implies that the mafia would be two of the vanilla townies too, but I would be really twisting that implication out.  I think NativeForeigner (and Makeinu) is town or a pretty haughty mafia to blatantly suspect somebody who is almost certainly town.  Of course, if they both seriously try to vote Scientist I will retaliate and change my thoughts on the matter.

Donkey Parade - "Superblackcat is town, NativeForeigner is mafia."  Now here's the fun one.  Because of the contrasting choices, unlike SBC's we don't have much concealment here.  Since it would be stupid for mafia to lynch their own on mylo if EP is mafia then NativeForeigner is almost certainly their buddy.  They could be doing a concealment of intent, but I can't put too much concrete evidence on that when they're not voting anybody.

What do I gather from all of this?  More probable suspects.

SBC seems more scummy.
EP seems more townie (their response telling me to question them more is interesting).
NativeForeigner is town if they stop voting Scientist.  Wait, they aren't even voting Scientist?  NativeForeigner is scum until he votes somebody.

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@Elephant Parade:
Here's a question, when are you going to vote somebody?

Also, to accuse me of lurking when everybody but me and SBC got prodded yesterday is humorous.

I'm pretty confident that Scientist is town so the mafia probably tried to kill me and failed.  Otherwise they didn't try to kill for some reason.

In summary though:

I think EP and SBC are the last mafia.  I don't really have the time to go over why completely, but I've made some points over the course of the game and also the only other player I can really suspect is NativeForeigner, who might be mafia, but might not too.

I would really appreciated it if everybody voted somebody.