Bay 12 Games Forum

I'm down-voting because:

1. I'm not making that mistake again.
2. Toaster is on the team so if he's really a spy we lost and if he's not he can just make the Toony/Toaster/Ford/Dariush team tomorrow.

Yes this means I don't trust Nerjin nearly enough.  ZU/Tiruin/Nerjin anybody?  I'd much rather have Dariush or even Leafsnail for fourth slot.

I would really like to pretend that was a joke.
But it wasn't.

Quote from: ZU

Toony, Ford, Dariush, Nerjin team?

Swap Dar for Toaster. I'm unsure about the former atm.

I would be okay with Toony, Ford, Toaster, Nerjin.

ZU, you'll have my vote if you pick four people out of me, you, NQT, Nerjin and Ford.

There isn't a possible team you could make with that that doesn't have a spy on it.

That first sentence feels like a brain teaser, let me rephrase:

If Captain Ford is a spy that means the team they made (Ford/Toony/Nerjin/NQT) would have at least one spy on it, being Ford themselves.  Voting that team down meant that Ford gave their win away quite willingly which makes no sense.

If Captain Ford is a spy that means the team they made (Ford/Toony/Nerjin/NQT) could have at most two spies from my perspective.  Only myself and NQT actually up-voted this team which is why purely statistically our scumminess is pretty much completely swappable here.  Though Toaster is right in trusting me more, even more than Nerjin.

@Toaster:

My genuine gut read is going ZU/Ford/Leafsnail right now so the "all-in" bet for me would be:
ToonyMan
Toaster
Nerjin
Dariush

I would definitely keep out Tiruin and Leafsnail to be on the safe side.  The problem begins with your refusal of Nerjin, we would have very little choice but to swap Nerjin with Captain Ford with what we have left.  In fact, keeping Nerjin and Dariush in has already worried me because of ZU's proposed team.  I know he could just be screwing with us and it won't matter until he red texts a team (which will again be a mess), but at the very least you will definitely want to keep ToonyMan and Toaster in this team.

For the next two it's tricky, you will never let Tiruin go through so we can't rely on a 50/50 flip there with Leafsnail.  And I don't want to rely on that either.  So Tiruin and Leafsnail are out.

The second team that went and failed was Leafsnail/Dariush/Zombie Urist/Captain Ford.  If we remove Leafsnail from what we said before and remove Zombie Urist for being a spy we leave Dariush and Captain Ford.  We can bring both for the last, but I'd really prefer not to.  And with my doubts on how damn washy Ford has been it's easier to pick Dariush who seems to be having a particularly poor town game, but a town game nonetheless.

And the remaining choices leave Nerjin and NQT.  And that's how I default to Nerjin, because holy hell NQT's game has been shoddy.  I'll probably slap myself if Nerjin is a spy because of what I've done to him, but I'd slap myself too if I somehow let NQT through and he very likely revealed himself as a spy.

If you have any negotiations that would be good.  I have to assume you're definitely a rebel for this game to proceed after all. 

If the third spy is Toaster they've already won though.  So I have to assume the third spy is either Tiruin or Leafsnail.

Think about it, ZU and Toaster are the only two people who can make teams.  Toaster cannot be a spy or else why the hell are we still playing this game.

If anything Toaster is confirmed rebel, unless GG just wants this to go on for some reason.

@ZU:
Basing on what you say here:

What do you guys think about a Toony, Ford, Dariush, Nerjin team?

At least one of these people is a spy.  I know I'm a rebel, and if we assume Toaster has to be town now (otherwise we've already lost) then that means at least either Ford, Dariush, or Nerjin is a spy.  At least one of them is a rebel because ZU isn't on this team.

The ones not on this team are:
Tiruin
Leafsnail
NQT
ZU
Toaster

Tiruin and Leafsnail both have a 50% chance of being a spy.  And I'd have to pick Tiruin over LS as being a spy.  Both of them are very very very unlikely to both be spies.  But one definitely is.

NQT is a wash.  I don't like how he's acting, but his chance of being a spy is all over the place depending on if we can take LS' word.

ZU is definitely a spy.  Toaster cannot be a spy.

Based on this reasoning we can go a few ways--

We can make these team:
ToonyMan
Toaster
Nerjin
Dariush

or

ToonyMan
Toaster
Nerjin
Captain Ford

Which are dangerous based on what ZU proposed himself.  They'd probably have a 50% chance of passing or worse.

My genuine gut read is going ZU/Ford/Leafsnail right now so the "all-in" bet for me would be:

ToonyMan
Toaster
Nerjin
Dariush

Assuming Toaster is town at least means if ZU's team doesn't go through Toaster can lead us on still, within the best of his ability.

explanation

Okay, I get it.  You're getting scumreads on Leafsnail and not Toaster.  And you know yourself to be town so there was likely only one spy on the first failed mission.  That's easy to see.

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What do you guys think about a Toony, Ford, Dariush, Nerjin team?

So highly unlikely it hurts, there's only three spies ZU.

I'm kinda nervous how Tiruin's been like "pick Toaster" in every post so far.

I like this sentence because it makes me want to think Leafsnail is a spy because you're implying Tiruin and Toaster are spies.  I'm not sure where you're going here though.

As far-fectched as it may seem, I'm beginning to wonder if a Tiruin/Toaster/LS team is possible.

Another team??  This is also implying that LS is a spy so it makes me want to trust LS more.

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I am seriously starting to consider that Ford is a spy.  ZU is definitely a spy, Tiruin is wishy-washy, NQT is quite likely a spy.  Although if Ford is really a spy that burned his own teammates that's fucking hilarious.  Poor Zombie.

In fact, if I think that ZU and Ford are the spies, I would hover my third spy position towards Leafsnail.  He would clearly be pulling a trust gambit and then vote himself in for the final mission.

Although Toaster could easily be as possible.  Although neither the ZU/Ford/Leafsnail or the ZU/Ford/Toaster teams pass my "spies will always sabotage" test.  In fact ZU/Ford/Leafsnail would mean the second failed mission was 3/4 spies. 

I'm kind of reading Leafsnail more town than Toaster right now though.  And Tiruin I'm really just not sure.

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Got any teams for us ZU?  I can't wait for them!  I'm very sure about you at least.