Bay 12 Games Forum

Quote from: hector13 on April 24, 2023, 11:56:41 am

What do you think of my plan Fluffe?

The ballsy one? Extremely flawed mostly because it relies on the hope that mafia will just decide to kill Toony tonight for some reason. Infact even sharing that plan I feel lowers the odds of it actually working by a bajillion percent.

There is an incredible incentive for both town and mafia to kill me.

I don't think I'm surviving today, let alone tonight.

I've thought about it for three seconds and that's nonsense. If scum hit you with a ray that made you into a miller for the night, then that wouldn't impact your results at all.

What the fuck? I'm saying how unlikely it is that scum would also frame you to look town last night if someone was framing me. I couldn't have been redirected in any way because of your own claim. That's two frame actions that both hit their mark. It's not very likely. The most likely answer to a possible false result is that you're a kind of godfather. You clearly need more than three seconds.

Knightwing, what do the dead think of the inspects on Toony? Do we have good reason to readily dismiss them? I think it's a bit funny how Toony is quite confident with his town inspect on me, while simultaneously casting doubt on the two inspects on himself!

Think for two seconds: Scum framing me would mean you were also framed to look town by your partner, or you're a godfather. My results couldn't have been redirected in any way, because you claim to have tracked me last night and can confirm I targeted you and Hector. The most likely doubt is that you're a godfather, but then last night was a complete train wreck and bullshit. I think it's a possibility, but I don't really want to humor it.

They actually started acting goofy a bit before that happened.

When did FoU and Lenglon begin communicating? Would you be able to point to a specific post in this thread?

The Time Has Come And So Have I

Lenglon Partner Debacle
Curious Cat, Fluffe, Hector, Juicebox, and Knightwing

#108 - Hector asks Lenglon not to be third-party. Lenglon asks Hector, Tric, Jack, Egan, Max, Jim, Toaster, and Fluffe some questions while voting Jack.

Lenglon's first post where they ask a bunch of silly questions. Doesn't mention Juicebox or Knightwing, but I don't think it tells much.

#118 - FoU votes Lenglon because their fake one-shot infallible day inspect told them Lenglon is mafia, amusingly accurate.

Hector joins FoU in #119 while Curious Cat questions FoU's reasoning in #120. Cat is willing to vote Lenglon if FoU can convince them.

#122 - Lenglon unvotes Jack and votes FoU screaming OMGUS. Lenglon responds to Hector's question and demands that Cat vote FoU or themself with the hint that they are scummier.

Goofy interactions with Cat, more serious response with Hector. Lenglon was also acting really goofy with FoU so I think this makes Cat look better and Hector worse.

#131 - Lenglon demands Cat vote FoU or themselves again.

#134 - Lenglon presses Cat again.

#135 - Cat finally gives in and votes Lenglon as the more suspicious of the two.

This exchange looks pretty weird. I don't really like it.

#136 - Hector switches their vote from Lenglon to Cat for their "over-cautious play voting Lenglon".

Hector seemingly feeling the same way I just did.

#138 - Lenglon demands that Cat explain why they're scum.

It keeps going. Lenglon and Cat continue to argue.

#157 - Cat says they're suspicious of FoU and Lenglon.

This is the point where I join the game properly. I agree with Cat in #164 that FoU and Lenglon were behaving weirdly, turns out this was the correct assumption because FoU had joined a loverschat with Lenglon.

#168 - Knightwing joins the fray asking about hats, Lenglon doesn't want to talk about it. Knightwing responds, confused.

Knightwing looks genuinely confused here. I really doubt Knightwing is mafia in the first place, but with Lenglon is even less likely.

#171 - Lenglon gets all creepy with me.

I wish they had roleplayed more.

#188 - Lenglon likes Max.

#200 - Lenglon likes FoU.

#211 - Lenglon interacts with Fluffe for the first time. Lenglon gives advice to Fluffe on what they should be doing on Day 1.

Mildly suspicious of this. I think it's relatively common for scum to give "advice" to each other.

#214 - Fluffe wonders what Lenglon's RVS questions were about and if they were genuine.

#249 - Juicebox gives their first substantial post. They like Lenglon and give them some positive compliments. They think there's one scum inside Max/FoU and don't like Jack.

Suspicious points to Juicebox here.

#268 - Cat asks Lenglon for a really good reason why they should unvote them or if they should leave their vote on Lenglon for the time being.

Weird question, it's so naively innocent.

#273 - Lenglon gives a readslist. Lenglon is suspicious of Curious Cat for "falling for their trap" and says if they were a vet they'd think Cat was scum. Nullread on Fluffe. Nullread Hector. Juicebox is likely town but not enough content to be comfortable. Nullread of Knightwing "who?".

So if I order these five players it's something like this:

Town
Juicebox
Hector/Fluffe/Knightwing
Curious Cat
Scum

It's difficult to tell who Lenglon is hiding here, do they put their partner at an extreme or do they nullread them?

#273 - Same post, Lenglon PPE's by giving Cat advice and voting Max.

Lenglon is giving advice to Cat just like with Fluffe, it's a bit more substantial than with Fluffe.

#276 - Cat unvotes Lenglon, but says they'll "keep my eye on you Lenglon".

I want to make a joke here but I won't.


Not much to tell here yet. This will be more interesting at end of Day.

#296 - Hector is content with Lenglon and thinks I should have Lenglon higher in my own reads.

This is suspicious from Hector.

#318 - Lenglon responds to Hector and Fluffe both asking why Lenglon asked weird RVS questions in their first post. Lenglon admits they were mostly shitposting. Then they vote Knightwing for lurking.

Really not seeing Knightwing as a partner still.

#359 - Lenglon unvotes Knightwing because they're participating.

#360 - Cat follows suit and also unvotes Knightwing for the same reason.

#361 - Lenglon jokingly tells Cat maybe there's two scumteams fighting each other.

Infamous post. It is pretty weird that Cat mentions there being two "cliques" which is what made Lenglon make the joke in the first place.

This is when a lot of bullshit between FoU and Tric happens. I still can't believe FoU would argue with me about Tric not being town.

#430 - Lenglon points out that Max and Jim seem to be on the exact same wavelength (or team) and are making nearly identical arguments.

I should have noticed this. I feel stupid.

#438 - Lenglon jumps back on Curious Cat for not participating.

Again, hounding Cat specifically.

#476 - Lenglon appears voting Jim and defending FoU. Gets really mad at Jim.

I'm only including this because they dropped their Cat vote very fast here without addressing it.

#507 - Fluffe expresses how uberly confused they are over the FoU/Tric firefight.

Fluffe is very sidelinely to the whole affair, unlike Lenglon who is directly involved.

#558 - Fluffe thinks Hector is more trustworthy than Jim no contest simply because Hector avoided most of the Tric/FoU firefight while Jim did not.

I don't think this is very good reasoning.

#562 - Lenglon gives Fluffe their summary of the arguments going on so far.

Lenglon helping out Fluffe. Just re-reading the FoU/Tric part feels awful.

#563 - Lenglon tells Fluffe to ask Jim/Max/FoU/Tric to give their own summaries of the cases, so Fluffe literally does exactly that.

This is pretty lazy from Fluffe.

#566 - Juicebox doesn't believe Fou's case on Tric is really genuine and gives a bunch of points why.

I like the effort given here even if it was wrong. I came to the same incorrect conclusion so.

#584 - Lenglon picks Knightwing as their top lurker lynch, followed by NQT and Jack.

Pretty good reason not to suspect Knightwing here.

#593 - Lenglon tells Cat they should ask Max and Jim what "managing town" means.

#614 - Lenglon points out that Cat may have unintentionally revealed they have an inspection ability or nightkill. They also mention the possibility of there being false inspect results.

This was exactly on the money. Cat claimed an inspection result on N1. I have no idea why Cat would do this besides inexperience.

Lenglon themselves might have revealed their partner has a frame ability by mentioning false inspect results.

I think the big take away here though is that this makes Cat look pretty good. I don't see Cat being partnered with Lenglon based just from this exchange.

#637 - Lenglon posts an updated readslist. They have Cat and Fluffe in the same boat as probably town but scummy if they were veterans. Is suspicious of Hector but just keeps their eye on them. Resigns themselves to Juicebox being town. Votes Knightwing for lurking.

New order is now:

Town
Juicebox
Hector/Fluffe/Curious Cat
Knightwing
Scum

Juicebox is still top town out of the five. Hector and Fluffe don't move anywhere. Curious Cat goes up and Knightwing does down.

#639 - Knightwing shows up and gets mad at Lenglon.

#680 - Lenglon argues with Knightwing. Unvotes Knightwing.

#820 - Day 1 end is approaching. Lenglon thinks Jack is likely town based on the votes piling too fast. Lenglon still prefers a Jack lynch over a FoU lynch, but would swap to Jim in a heartbeat.

This all makes sense based on what we know. It's amusing that Lenglon says they think Jack is likely town while also voting Jack.

#840 - Lenglon rubs their chin over the sudden Hector wagon forming. Gives the excuse that if it didn't have people they didn't trust on it they might hop over.

Last post from Lenglon. This makes Hector look bad.

Day 1 ends.


Hector, Fluffe, and Juicebox are voting Jack with Lenglon.
Curious Cat is voting Hector.
Knightwing is voting Toaster.

I think Cat and Knightwing look good here.

I think Hector, Fluffe, and Juicebox look bad here.


...


Conclusions?

Knightwing
1. He is off in his own little world.
2. Lenglon wants to policy-lynch him constantly.
Verdict: TOWN

Curious Cat
1. Many, many interactions with Lenglon.
2. Let slip they probably had an inspection ability, which Lenglon points out.
3. Did not vote with Lenglon during EoD1.
Verdict: TOWN

Fluffe
1. Hasn't really done anything.
2. They have the least amount of evidence that they're with Lenglon.
Verdict: SUSPICOUS BUT PROBABLY NOT WITH LENGLON

Hector
1. Hector showed content with Lenglon.
2. Lenglon seemed reluctant to vote Hector during EoD1.
Verdict: LIKELY LENGLON PARTNER

Juicebox
1. Lenglon held a high opinion of.
2. Voted with Lenglon during EoD1
Verdict: LIKELY LENGLON PARTNER

---

Quote from: ToonyMan on April 20, 2023, 06:33:53 pm

Quote from: Jim Groovester on April 20, 2023, 06:27:48 pm

ToonyMan, sell me on hector13. My gut says I don't like this lynch despite my misgivings about him during Day 1.

I can't give a detailed case, there isn't enough time. I think he's the most suspicious player based on their votes and behavior. I'm not going to blame FoU for claiming late, but it didn't help when my top suspect became someone I didn't want to vote in a 15 player game.

I want to get a clearer understanding of what your case on hector was

I can do that. I got distracted Day 2 by...other things going on.

Targeting Toony to frame him seems more possible. Though I'm not really experienced enough to say how common such an ability would be.

I checked, in BYOR15 Toaster got a mafia result on IcyTea (who was masons with 4mask or something) but one of the mafia had framed IcyTea the night before. It was FoU/Nirur/Jim/Leafsnail I don't want to dig through the logs on which one exactly did it.

The point is I would argue it's fairly common because even the previous entry in this series had it happen.

I'm still standing by my result and consider Toony outed mafia.

Brain Power: High

I see.  I think that’s enough for me to vote ToonyMan then, unless he can come up with something really convincing before the day ends or he gets hammered.

You can think whatever you want. I just don't want town to lose when I'm dead.

- someone targeted Toony to frame him (possible but seems unlikely)

It's very possible.

Two separate players (Egan and Cat) inspected me on N1, it would not involve much foresight for a mafia player to frame me alongside their other actions. Worst case nobody inspects the player (me) that everyone is going to inspect on N1 because this is what happens to me every game.

If I remember correctly Toaster received a mafia result on a town player during BYOR15, it didn't go well for town.