Bay 12 Games Forum

I was just trying the Toony trick of confidently calling the scum team. Toony has managed to catch the exact team this way in two recent games. I'm saying it's Toony/Fluff.

I actually have a wild theory it's NQT/Jack if Max is town. But I can only believe that if I believe Jack's outburst was staged and that a town!Max would be incorrect, which I haven't put any serious thought into and would need to look over. At the time I just saw angry uppercase letters and let Jack have the W.

Toony what's disingenuous about my argument?

Quote from: ToonyMan on February 26, 2023, 12:02:44 pm

Hmm I like NQT's attitude towards Jack.

It's like he dropped his earlier read when it was no longer convenient. I'm the obvious patsy from a scum!Toony perspective. D1  a newb could be mislynched, but D2+ he needs me to be available as the next mislynch. So he's setting his ducks in a row.

1. I thought your points of Jack being suspicious were sound arguments but grew misgivings later when Jack was more convincing.
2. I failed to lynch any newbs on D1.
3. You're settings your own ducks in a row for D2.

Quote from: ToonyMan on February 24, 2023, 11:25:54 pm

NQT could be anything, let's say town for now. Plant part could be anything, can't tell.

Moreover, going back to this post, why would a town!Toony be speculating about the plants? It's like he forgot to save that analysis for the scumchat. He's blurring his roles here.

In that post I wanted to label players as plant parts while justifying reasons, I think I did this for Jim or Max. I'm completely guessing and giving other players labels as a way to have fun (or if you want to be serious business, mind games). Webadict did something similar by claiming Stem alongside Tric.

Start of D2, what does he do? This is what he was thinking about foremost during the night:

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 12:58:26 pm

First, don't claim if you actioned last night. It's very possible mafia didn't kill. If you did action just keep it in the back of your mind.

If scum did try and kill and were blocked he DOES NOT want town to claim that. Even if they were lying low, he doesn't want a mass claim at this stage in case it confirms town. On D1 he already tried to dissuade town from mass-acting, as he says it's not likely to mutually confirm people:

Quote from: ToonyMan on February 27, 2023, 10:49:14 am

I decided to give NQT"s question some thought and the conclusion I came to is everyone using their ability on N1 sounds like it will probably work out poorly, especially if mafia nokill because we then don't learn anything.

But he didn't share his workings out, so who knows, maybe a scum!Toony came to the conclusion that it would help town if they all shot their shot on N1.

No, I stand by my belief it's correct not to claim right now. I'm really confident mafia did not try to kill last night, like at least 85% sure. One of the reasons is that if I were mafia!Toony I wouldn't want to kill on N1 in this game either.

I don't like you attacking me for wanting players to keep quiet when you attacked Jack on D1 for wanting players to speak up about what they planned on doing. Here. You also say yourself that mafia not killing on N1 would have solid mechanical reasoning behind it. In other words, you're saying whatever comes to mind to try to get me lynched.

And what justification would I have for piling on? If I were mafia, I could just go to bed and let town do the work.

I can't argue this. Not doing anything would definitely be more scummy.

My positions on Jack and A1s yesterday were crystal clear. Jack was dodgy but I thought his meltdown was genuine, I never liked a1s's disengagement, but when I woke up D2 and saw end of day, I thought their sacrificial play was townsided. I've been more forthcoming D1 about actual reasons to vote than most players. You're not convincing me you're town here, Toon!

Okay we've confirmed your feelings have turned around on Jack and a1s. Why is Fluffe suspicious?

I'm going to eat my dinner now before it's cold.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 05:45:53 pm

I was thinking of this series of posts when I was making those reads. The progression also looks natural in general, but I would expect a mafia!Web to pull this off as well.

And yes, I do think he's been a standout case in your favor, not that I disagree with that.

Alrighty, fair enough thank you for explaining! I wish I had more to say in general but I still aint confident enough to outright go that guy is SUS yet the only thing that really stood out to me so far is Webadict claiming Stem not long after Tric did im still frankly not sure why he would do that at all considering how easy it would make it for mafia if they had a stem member.

It's a mindplay by Web. I think that's fine.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 04:36:23 pm

I swear I thought Web was going to die at the end of D1.

I didn't think a1s was scum at that point and didn't want to see them die. I don't think a1s is likely to be scum with anyone but Jim. You'd have to argue a1s is mafia with me or Jim or I don't think your argument has much merit.

I didn't really want to vote Max after Jim proposed it since I felt good about them so I was deciding between NQT and Webadict. I decided on Webadict because honestly Webadict saying that NQT always gets D1 sus lynched made me feel bad.

I think NQT and Max are the most likely to be scum right now, but NQT's recent vote on Max and their behavior between each other D1 would mean they're distancing. I'm not really sure.

I think Jim is correct that Max's attack on me today looks agenda-driven, which is scum behavior.

That underlined part is emotional. And Max doesn't have many other options in the first place but to distance.

You ay you feel bad about NQT, then say NQT/Max is the scum pairing. Without any evidence against NQT, jut Max sociology. Not even an in-depth look into why it could be.

All of my feelings are emotional Tric. The other half is when I use logic/reasoning.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 05:45:53 pm

Quote from: Fluffe9911 on March 01, 2023, 05:12:42 pm

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 05:07:38 pm

wow

much insight

Yes yes my statement is a nothingburger by the way what the hell did you mean by "web backs them quite a bit" like I'm obviously not that observant but I don't see how he backed me up anymore than the average person backed me up your views on things feels quiet inconsistent.

I was thinking of this series of posts when I was making those reads. The progression also looks natural in general, but I would expect a mafia!Web to pull this off as well.

And yes, I do think he's been a standout case in your favor, not that I disagree with that.

ToonyMan, just for that I'm voting you unless you can tell me what you've done here.

I don't know what you want from me, Web would back up Fluffe as town or mafia in my opinion.

post

I don't like any of this. I think this is most disingenuous argument against me out of everyone, like you're an actor speaking on a stage.

This is an all town wagon. Scum are in [Fluffe9911, Jim Groovester, Maximum Spin, ToonyMan] we got this game in the bag.

This doesn't sound like a town player to me. I think you're trying to stir a lynch mob since you know I'm a danger to you.

I'm not going to self hammer like a moron Tric. I'm definitely feeling the pressure I had to take a break to make dinner.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 05:07:38 pm

wow

much insight

Yes yes my statement is a nothingburger by the way what the hell did you mean by "web backs them quite a bit" like I'm obviously not that observant but I don't see how he backed me up anymore than the average person backed me up your views on things feels quiet inconsistent.

I was thinking of this series of posts when I was making those reads. The progression also looks natural in general, but I would expect a mafia!Web to pull this off as well.

And yes, I do think he's been a standout case in your favor, not that I disagree with that.

Or you were protecting Max, it's why you said that there.

I protected Max and also voted Web instead of getting you lynched for free as someone I was willing to vote if I had to?

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 04:36:23 pm

I swear I thought Web was going to die at the end of D1. [...] I think Jim is correct that Max's attack on me today looks agenda-driven, which is scum behavior.

Okay, I spent the last like half an hour looking at your post history to find examples but I got bored midway through webadict's Supernatural.
But the point I was trying to make is: I have seen you panic about ties at end of day enough times that it's hard to believe you would just miscount the votes, with a recent votecount right there and only a handful of changes, and not, well, "aneurysm". You did that a little in KJJTN, but it wasn't a great example. Still, I think you have to admit that it's something you do.

But okay, maybe I'm being too harsh. I admit I'm not sure about you and a1s as a team and that's the only real reason you'd have to do that. So who do you think is scum (other than me, I am not going to be convinced of that)?

It's what you'll have to believe. I'm not a perfect player.

I could tell you who I think is town instead.

I think Tric is town. I was thinking at one point maybe he's with Web or something crazy, but then a lot of stuff doesn't add up so I'm going to say nay to that. They're our annoying Stem bro through and through.

I think Jack is town. Their freakout on D1 after I pushed them looks legit, they get props if they're acting.

I think Jim is town. They weren't feeling Jack or a1s lynches which I don't think look like good lynches anymore. I think if a1s is mafia it'd literally have to be just with Jim.

I think a1s is town. They are a new player that did the suicide bait thing that I've seen constantly from newb!town. I just don't see a mafia!a1s posting like this. I would like if Jack could share some insight on a1s from that other game I had a question about a1s for Jack in their reads as since I still feel uncomfortable due to the unknown factor.

I think Fluffe is town. I think everything Web has said is basically correct and don't really think Fluffe could be mafia unless Web is as well.

I think Web is town. Their post "So Toony + Max" at the very end off D1 looks like the desperate finger point of a man who thinks they're about to die, which they back up on D2 by saying they did think they were going to die. I want to believe Web is being honest with their D2 thoughts here and I can think of at least one game where mafia!Me tried to get town!Web lynched last minute so that probably upsets him.

And that's why I'm most suspicious of Max and NQT currently.

I liked Max sticking up for Jack on D1, and maybe their suspicion of me right now is genuine.

I can't think of anything I've liked about NQT in this game so far, but that is literally always the case. So I would say NQT is still more suspicious than Max currently. I don't really see a connection between them though.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 04:36:23 pm

I didn't think a1s was scum at that point and didn't want to see them die.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 12:58:26 pm

Would I have voted a1s last second to ensure an elimination? I probably would have.

That's a bit of a contradiction, unless a1s is town, but you'd kill me anyway?

It's not a contradiction. Even if I think a player is town it's possible I'm wrong. Voting for you to be eliminated would have been better than a tie I think most people would agree.

Quote from: ToonyMan on March 01, 2023, 12:58:26 pm

Second, I miscounted

I see.

So, coaching one of the noobs to tie the vote in a "seemingly innocuous way" at the last minute was an accident.

Yes, that's one way to put it.

Do you think I'm mafia alone or with a1s here?

Quote from: a1s on March 01, 2023, 01:12:07 pm

This goes double for Jack, who could have killed me or web, but did neither. We can't all be mafia together, so at least one of those kills would be beneficial.

Of course it means nothing for anyone who wasn't there for it.

This is a valid point, Jack wasn't here.