Bay 12 Games Forum

Actually, given that it's game over if two town of the same type die... we could lose N1 if we mislynch. So as it's MYLO (more or less), is there a good rationale for no-launch?

Help me work through the scenarios here...

I don't think there is.

If we don't lynch then we can't lose before D2, but we can't get closer to winning either.

If some of us fire off our one-shots on N1 we could catch mafia...or mafia chooses not to kill and we get false positives as Roots and Stems out themselves thinking they stopped the kill. If mafia nokill then Flowers also can't get concrete results. If anything I feel like mafia are more likely not to kill if we no lynch to make us waste our one-shots.

Earlier Jim said he probably wasn't going to use his one-shot tonight when Jack asked everyone. That makes me feel good about Jim even if I can't think of why it would be alignment indicative.

When is it correct to use our one-shot? I don't think this question should be answered. Did Jim answer because he's being honest? Maybe.

Right now I feel like mafia are a1s and Jack after some back and forth in my mind.

Actually Jim why are you voting Tric still?? Do you think he's mafia or what?

Oh, and screw you Toony.
...
My thought process was the following:
I had originally intended to unvote web, but forgot. Hence having a vote on web that wasn't accurate to my current mind state.
Then, upon reviewing Tric's list of suspects, I figured "well, maybe one is scum?"
I had originally had higher suspicion of NQT, but just wasn't feeling it.
So I figured that I would check Max out.  And then I noted Max was communicating more like his scum-self than his town-self.  So I followed that up with a question.  NQT giving me shit had me figuring I should double down on Max with a vote.
...and here we are.

Honestly, I'd like a1s to post so we could decide properly on them.  If they don't post, I'm quite happy to eliminate them. What I suspect will happen is they'll vote with less than 24 hours, so we'll be stuck scrambling for the Day 1 lynch.  Which is gonna suck.  So we should probably start working on secondary lynches.

I still think your response here is way too cool-headed now that I scrutinize you more, am I wrong?

Quote from: ToonyMan on February 26, 2023, 03:24:49 pm

Do you think someone will catch mafia on N1?

It's possible but it would require the Stem or Flower to use their oneshot on the very first day and to get quite lucky. I say it's unlikely but not impossible.

Shouldn't we vote someone today then?

Quote from: ToonyMan on February 26, 2023, 10:19:04 am

I'd rather vote a player that isn't here then someone I don't really think is mafia.

Who do you think dies tonight? Or at least, who do you think mafia will want to kill most?

Fair enough and I'm not gonna go into specifics cause then mafia are probably gonna kill that person because they think they are funny. But probably a person they think is too close to the truth (somehow) or they know tends to be competent. What branch they are on will also probably have a large effect in the decently likely chance they are on the same level as a person who has pretty much already revealed their role. Or who knows maybe they throw darts!

Do you think mafia have a good idea what branch each player is right now?

If there's a mafia in Stem we're a little fucked since they just have to find the non-Tric Stem, but whatever.

extremely calm post

I don't like this or the vote on Max. I think your justification here is a sudden turn from your previous stance and sounds phony to me.

I'm very intrigued by the rapid wagon formation. a1s hasn't posted on the forum in six days. Assuming that keeps up, I don't see that much pressure is being had here.

SO

EuchreJack

Jack wasn't on the bandwagon though?

So everyone's voting a1s cause they aint talking at all?

I'd rather vote a player that isn't here then someone I don't really think is mafia.

Who do you think dies tonight? Or at least, who do you think mafia will want to kill most?

reads

I'm right about Jim more than you're right though.

The one time Jim was mafia recently I switched my vote to him after you convinced me.

Tric is 90% town. I don't think he's fooling me.

I'm like 80% sure Jim is town. Maybe my second most confident read after Tric.

Jack is like 70% town. I haven't seen any clear "yeah this is obviously town Jack", but they also haven't said anything alarming which I think is a lot more valuable.

Everyone else (Web, Max, NQT, Fluffe) is around 50% but I don't see anything vote worthy.

If a1s isn't mafia then I think our two mafia are inside these four players currently.