Bay 12 Games Forum

I agree he's not suitable, but none of those are reasons that apply to trump without some serious context mangling of his words.

I agree that context matters.

When Trump praised Putin, the context was "wait, really?  The Putin who kills journalists?" and then he doubled down on it.
When Trump called for the jail of his political opponent, the context was that he came back the next said that not only was that correct but he also wanted to jail her lawyers.

Okay, we're in a post-Trump world now,

I keep waiting for something to happen to show that no, it doesn't work that way.  Trump will never win a majority of a state in the primaries because he is just be a fluke of a divided primary.  Kasich will win another damn state besides Ohio and show that the republicans just were too slow to organize behind a credible candidate.  Cruz will run on a stop Trump ticket and peel off states like Utah and Alaska to show that the party doesn't like Trump.  Trump will lose in the biggest landslide ever because people understand he isn't a plausible candidate.  If one of these things could happen then we could accept that this all was just a horrible one off event and not the way the world really works.  These would be signs that the sane world was just covered up by some stupid short term decisions but sanity will reassert itself the next time around.

But Trump started winning majorities, Kasich never got a second state, Cruz phonebanked for the man who slandered his family and Trump is still appealing to a very broad swathe of the electorate.  It looks like the people are going to stop Trump at the ballot box which is a relief but it's way too close.  Election day is the final line of defense and the biggest gun in the arsenal the democracy uses to protect itself from would be usurpers.  Why the hell is it taking the biggest gun we have to stop a bogeyman who should have been knocked on his ass by five minutes of laughter?

It will take a long, long time before we can stop considering it a post-Trump world.

Also, I want to correct myself, Roosevelt got 35.22% in Washington. in 1912.

Washington 1912 is actually pretty close to what it would need to look like for Clinton to swing Utah.  Although there was actually a fifth candidate there because the Prohibition candidate got 3% of the vote and I doubt Jill Stein is gonna swing that in Utah.

There is a bit of a problem with the comparison.  Roosevelt was one of three left wing candidates splitting the vote (Roosevelt, Wilson, Debs).  Whereas Clinton would be the only left wing candidate while there are three right wing candidates.  So it's a different dynamic.

Still, very interesting comparison.  But now, the million dollar question.  Do you think a Washington 1912 situation is a high enough probability to factor into the 25% odds that Clinton had on that website?

In any of those years did a candidate win any states with 35% of the vote?

It may be current year but strategic voting still exists.  Unless McMuffins and Johnsons are exactly tied (and they aren't) one of them is going to consolidate all the "I am conservative but dont like Trump" vote.

Clinton's best ever poll in Utah was 35%.  If Trump loses all support in Utah those votes probably aren't going to Clinton, they are probably going to McMuffin or Johnson.

Donald Trump says Isis will take over US if Clinton wins

I guess he realized that trying to run against the record of Obama or Bill Clinton wasn't working because they are so much more popular then he is.  So he is trying to run against competition at his own level.

But wont men be busy grabbing pussies?  I thought Trump was "for traditional marriage"?

If McMuffin wins Utah, it's basically impossible for Trump to win even if he sweeps every single swing state: http://www.270towin.com/maps/pyvxL

what is the only thing that has really happened in October?

His taxes were leaked, we learned that he attempted bribery of a public official using funds that he was illegally controlling and he lost the first debate in the worst performance in debate history in October as well.

It's been a busy month.