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Messages - jipehog

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376
Still not as weird as that artic shark which contains poisonous substance and must be left to decompose for a few month before it can be eaten.

Otherwise that fin situation sounds a little like the ivory situation with elephants

377
That is the guy whose daughter was murdered, right?
Girkin is former Russian officer and ardent nationalist, who played a key role in Russian annexation of Crimean and the Donbas since 2014, who is now a prominent pro-war milblogger and has been often quoted in westren media over his strong criticism of Russian strategy in Ukraine.

Prigozhin is a Russian oligarch, the head of wagner group, which seemingly replaced the kadyrov chechens as the blunt tool of the Russian army. Also a pro-War figure and notable critic of Russian strategy. Recently he was in the headlines over due to the public spat with Russian Defense ministry over Bakhmut offensive where wagner is taking the lead, the bombing which killed pro-war millbloger he sponsored in his restaurant, and some claims that he might challenge Putin fore presidency in 2024.

378
As long as the A.I. will lack actual "I" it will not be a problem.


Speaking of high quality art, here some progress that have been made with Midjourney AI in the past year:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=twKgWGmsBLY

379
I think, jipehog, we might be talking cross purposes. I think there's big future problems possible with AI.

I blame it on all the topic changes and ballooning of multiple AI threads. This my all purpose AI thread (can't care less about the whimsical title ), I was surprised that my question about ASI wasn't understood as rhetorical to indicate that obviously the examples talk about tools as this something we agreed upon in the past.

actual AI, beyond anythng we're actually seeing now, which we need to (but probably won't, for reasons I have given) anticipate and decide whether we're going to embrace or emasculate such things, beforehand.

Here we disagree. (A) I think there is huge range of issues that would be affected by AI, of which the doomsday scenario of ASI taking over the world is the most extreme and luckily far removed. (B) We should start thinking about AI safety and alignment now, precisely because we probably won't be able to anticipate the singularity event, at which point it would be too late.

Also to keep things interesting and put some fire under the American butts. Elon Musk just announced his TruthGPT as an alternative to 'politically correct' OpenAI's (the alignment problem mentioned before)
https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-develop-truthgpt-warns-civilizational-destruction-ai


Let's namedrop the doomsday scenario specifically... [..] It's not just going to hog up machine time in factories to build itself an army while everybody shrugs their shoulders, I mean yeah reality has this tendency to outrun satire [..]
I agree on both accounts. Reality has such tendency and AI won't be doing that because we would be doing that for it.  Our world becomes much more automated and more reliant on autonomous system from autonomous cars, to autonomous robots in search/rescue and military, to warehouse operations and construction, ..., and even for companionship.

Just in case, few quick google examples of what is already possible:
6 warehouse robots that are reshaping the industry
You Won't Believe What This Super Robot Army Can Do!
Japan Releases Fully Performing Female Robots


Otherwise, assuming the premise of artificial super intelligence(ASI) doomsday scenario, i believe that starting a conventional war would be one of the least effective and creative solution an ASI would be able to come up with.

380
Quote
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto focused on protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin from possible “sabotage” and “betrayal.” The “Club of Angry Patriots” published its manifesto on April 17 on its newly created Telegram channel, which emphasizes protecting pro-war factions in the Kremlin instead of efforts to win the war in Ukraine.[25] The manifesto claims that unspecified actors who remain in power in Russia have transferred their money and allegiance to the West and may be preparing for a coup and the ”dismemberment” of the Russia Federation. The manifesto likens the Kremlin‘s pro-war and anti-war factions to the fight between the Reds and Whites in the Russian Civil War following the Bolshevik revolution of 1917. The manifesto also claims that Russia is currently fighting the war in a mediocre way and is unable to defeat Ukraine in its current state. ISW previously assessed that Girkin and the “Club of Angry Patriots” may be attempting to advance the political goals of unnamed figures in Russian power structures who want to influence Putin’s decision making through public discourse.[26]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-17-2023

Interesting.  Also in the never ending Russian publical political telenovela Prigozhin is seemingly regaining favor. I really want to know if its real or just way to deflect public attention from failures and those responsible. I haven't heard from someone serious about that arena in a while.



381
Clearly here, though, the 'AI'[1] is not a tool of inherent danger. Or indeed a tool that decides to run amok outwith human control. And the intent lies with the human, who decided they could feign one crime in order to comit another.

I disagree. I think that AI is next and greatest industrial revolution, with all the negative nitty gritty implications. That why I bring these headlines to make people think about the potential disrupting effect AI in every aspect of life beyond the cool chat nonsense. (btw I hope there are no computer science students reading this because ChatGPT just made your curriculum a lot more outdated)

In this case, my take is at how AI make such acts more accessible and common place and requires us to answer how can we regulate these whether we are talking on personal use or on the international stage. I am far more concerned about the autonomous use of AI, eventually there would be an arm race here between hackers and security experts (blackICE anyone?).

p.s. Speaking of old decades old stuff, I wouldn't really on fiction particularly Hollywood type for wisdom, because usually in every such story no matter how super duper whatever external threat we always find way to overcome because of our inherent and their --insert moral of story--, that just good story but BS.

382
General Discussion / Re: Railgun and Spirituality Discussion
« on: April 18, 2023, 04:56:51 am »
The economic question is interesting. Most studies suggest the long term impacts of climate change (even an idealist 2 degree shift) are worse than any short term impacts of extreme infrastructure and economic overhaul. That is, of course, still a hard pill to swallow and even harder to sell.
The devil is always in the details e.g. worse for who? There are arguments that climate change fanatics are at best arguing in bad faith trying to promote alarmism/action and at worst are simply virtue singling promoting fear-mongering and immediate action that have limited impact and primarily benefit the wealthy and thus diverting attention and resources from more substantive solutions that would help solve climate change problems and elevate poverty for hundreds of millions.

I went with wicked problem because it was relevant to the topic and easy to prove. I wouldn't know where to start unpacking climate change arguments, but if anyone want to dive in here is a very nice (though four hours long!) conversation on the topic that covers a verity of views grounded in science that are different from the usual clickbait you'd see on the topic: www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Gk9gIpGvSE

Only, I might argue that in this specific case, no good comes from such stubbornness; whereas I can imagine people perhaps developing some good qualities - such as patience and compassion, if a religious faith was held instead.

I think that the strength of religion is in the combination of tradition, cultural heritage and institutions (e.g. there is a reason why there are less suicides in religious active communities) but otherwise there are far better and more influential sources of wisdom. I might argue that even Disney cartoons had more effect in modern times..

I very much prefer, let's say, an irrational and arrogant Vegan who preaches at me about corpse eating, how unnatural and unhealthy consuming meat is, and how animal husbandry is the main source of all economic and environmental problems, to a religious fanatic who wants to kill me because his God orders him to do so.

Worth noting that through out history many held beliefs with a level of fervor or conviction similar to that of religious belief and their actions directly or indirectly led to much death and or suffering. One doesn't need god to find rationalization to do harm for the sake of their idea of greater good.

383
General Discussion / Re: Railgun and Spirituality Discussion
« on: April 17, 2023, 07:26:28 am »
Also, this is a religion thread.
I was on topic.. Tldr faith/blind-trust is part of everyone life and religion is more than just faith in god. You on the other hand may want to read rule #7. Also wtf #8 ?!

Btw have you heard of Naïve realism? I think that some people takes this to religious-like levels, especially on the extremes of political polarization. Interestingly even though we always like to attribute reason to our decision, some recent brain scans suggest that our decision are emotional rationalized after the fact.

p.s. i see people going off rail about nuclear. In the context of climate change wicked problem, I think its important to realize the impact on other people, many people even entire economies depend on fossil fuels. For example, Saudi Arabia entire future is at stake! and understand that the aren't going to enjoy the potential benefits of green tech, for them it is net loss that could lead to destabilization and even civil war, they are not transitioning any time soon and will put sticks in all our best laid plans that don't have their interest at heart. Luckily they are also very rich, many other countries and sectors are not as lucky and will struggle along

384
General Discussion / Re: Space Thread
« on: April 17, 2023, 03:03:41 am »
Looks like its going to be a fun day monday for a change, with SpaceX first test launch of its super heavy rocket, the most powerful rocket ever built

https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-first-orbital-launch-explainer

385
I also predict that we'll get to either result without knowing it, at that time (if ever...).

A follow up to what we said on the topic there is the the concept of emergence, a fascinating phenomenon where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. It refers to the ability of a system, composed of individual components, to display new properties and behaviors that cannot be observed in the individual components themselves. For example, a few ants will walk in a circle until they die, but a thousand ants will become an intelligent colony, and behaving similar to the neurons in our brains.

So for all we know we could even cross the threshold without realizing it until we scale up.

Quote
And if the better hammer didn't exist, we already know that such people would (and do) use the old hammers to break things regardless... Do we legislate that hammers cannot be manufactured without a special handle that will render them unable to break things (that can be somehow identified as things that should never be broken)? Or do we just continue to prosecute those who mis-use any hammer, and perhaps restrict the availability of hammers with unnecessarily destructive tendencies?

I don't subscribe to the "______ are just tools. It's people who are dangerous" argument. Some tools are inherently more dangerous than others and should be considered given the situation. I do believe that AI are unchartered water and we should think hard on ways to regulate their use. More broadly consider war in Ukraine and tensions between USA and China, in the past arms control played a critical role in reducing tensions between nations and promoting stability in the international system, but we don't have clue about many news things like the AI. And ASI could pose an existential threat to us just a nuclear war.

386
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: April 16, 2023, 10:30:04 am »
pretty blatant racism (no sponges allowed!)
sponges?

387
General Discussion / Re: Railgun and Spirituality Discussion
« on: April 16, 2023, 07:38:53 am »
@Duuvian. To clarify these are not arguments for or against any approach, only the means to illustrate why this is a wicked problem. These factors are intertwined, where any change set a chain reaction that set other actions into motion in unpredictable ways and with consequences that change the initial condition.  Which is why it is a unique problem that we have no way to test, or play trial and error with moreover complicated by international venue actors conflict perspectives and interests[1] as the reader and whoever their political party might be. Thus all we can do is reach consensus on an action plan and hope for the best and adapt.[2]


Otherwise, modern fission reactors are also more expensive than other solutions, this could change with upcoming small modular reactors which should reduce construction cost substantially.

[1] After all we are setting a new business model one that may not deliver the same level of profitability and economic development for everyone.. For example, currently there many in the global south say leave us be, let the rich west deal with it.
[2] This is as part of the thread about the limits of science, and my suggestion that its not necessarily science that governing our stance on some of the biggest political issues (that not to suggest that religion should)

Edited.

388
General Discussion / Re: Railgun and Spirituality Discussion
« on: April 15, 2023, 08:33:35 pm »
And if the the question was how can we reduce greenhouse gas emissions you'd have clear cut solution.
I mean, short-term effective start (or ramp up, where it's already started) steadily shifting the massive subsidies we're feeding into fossil fuels into... not fossil fuels. Even beyond various sorts of regulation or direct investment opportunities in renewables or emission capture/reduction, you do that and suddenly the market becomes even more interested than it already was in building infrastructure et al that puts less emissions in the air.

And that's just one pretty bloody straightforward solution to greenhouse gas emissions, maybe not a silver bullet or "best" solution, but an effective one that isn't some kind of convoluted 20 year plan or whatever.

It's not exhaustive, folks more plugged in to the renewable et al field have been beating their various drums on stuff like that probably longer than either of us have been alive. There's a pile of pretty bloody clear cut ways to help on that front if certain folks with more money than sense would stop getting in the friggin' way.

Bloody clear cut is not the scientific method. Unlike the previous proposition, the debate on climate change is inherently political involving economic, social, and political ramifications. For example in the UK, many would find your bloody straightforward solution vastly insufficient arguing that UK should do much more than steady shift, although interestingly even if tomorrow UK drop from the face of earth it this will not significantly effect climate change.

Addressing climate change requires international cooperation (particularly that of China) meaning that you have to worry about international actors which have conflicting perspectives, sense of urgency, capabilities, and focus on their own interests.

I already touched on this in another thread, but that was about narratives and Russia:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Here just few other quick points of the many issues involved here:

* The argument is that shift to a low-carbon economy can provide new economic opportunities, it would also impact existing industries and those who depend on them (cost of living too?) and historically these things tend to effect disproportionately particularly low-income communities with job retraining may not be accessible everywhere
* The high cost of infrastructure can be a barrier to developing and even developed countries, an opportunity cost loss that would have negative effects on their economic growth.
* Tough its called green tech it would require significant resources, the extraction and manufacturing of which would inevitably cause much environmental degradation and human rights abuses in the usual suspects with weak environmental and labor protections.
* Power politics, I am sure that if the west give it Taiwan China would be amicable to a big compromise.. ( Not sure that anything short of a blowjob from Biden could do the same for Putin )

Anyway. Your expletives hide that your greater good equitable solution is faith based. You nor anyone else can formulate a clear solution for climate change that would address all the above. This is why international effort have been lackluster with everyone agreeing on a small step in the right direction that everyone can live with.

389
General Discussion / Re: Railgun and Spirituality Discussion
« on: April 15, 2023, 02:37:43 pm »
Otherwise how about faith in yourself/spouse/kids? Optimism? Hope?

Actually, the difference is observations and reasonable expectations. There are tons of observations that serve as evidence that my relatives love me. This is why I believe that they do love me. The fact that I want this to be true doesn't mean that observations don't exist

There are no observations that any form of afterlife exists, nevertheless, billions believe it, because they want it to be true.

This is why those are very different forms of belief.

We aren't talking about scientific observations. Our observations are always based on lack of information, incomplete understanding and shaped by our biases. As kids we have lower mental capacity and biologically wired to blind-trust our parents, as adults I believe that our attitudes are often shape by leaps of faith. Otherwise, can't we similarly say that religion is the generational tested observational wisdom?

As for afterlife but "grandpa its just a story..  :P"


Many social issues are wicked problems characterized by complexity, uncertainty and lack of clear cut solutions, these include things like poverty or climate change, we all know they exist but we don't know what the best way to solve the, only faith-based approaches that involve subjective perceptions of situation, values, needs and wants.
I mean, it's a point worth making that while we don't know the best ways to solve things like poverty or climate change, we do in fact know really damn good ways to. We know cutting emissions would help with climate change and know a slate of highly effective ways of doing so

And if the the question was how can we reduce greenhouse gas emissions you'd have clear cut solution.

390
Can AI lower cholesterol and blood pressure?

Asking for a friend...  ;D
I typed your symptom into the AI doctor, after careful analysis it told me you could have network connectivity problem

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