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General Discussion / Re: Solutions to the Fermi Paradox
« on: August 29, 2022, 06:55:58 am »Note that the Fermi paradox is not "why are we not seeing Aliens?".
The Fermi paradox is: "If aliens have had hundreds of millions of years to spread, why aren't they here yet?"
The answer basically has to be a variant of one of these:
- they're here, but they stay quiet / only allow themselves to be photographed in blurred images
- interstellar travel is too hard / impossible
- all civilizations like ours kill themselves with nukes once they reach that level of technology
- Life is extremely rare / unique within the galaxy
- Intelligent life is extremely rare / unique within the galaxy
And we simply do not know which of these it is. There are convincing arguments (but no hard evidence) for each of these answers.
No, it's literally "Where is everyone?"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
Consider:
We cannot effectively tell if a planet is even a planet outside our solar system unless it transits its star.
Even then, being able to directly measure its atmosphere is only possible based on a number of assumptions about its parent star, and its light absorption profile.
Our most HotShit telescope was able to do this for a nearby transiting planet, but that's the limit of what it was able to accomplish-- we cannot tell if the planet has abnormal heat signatures. We cannot tell if the planet's atmosphere is artificially polluted or not-- etc. In short, we cannot determine if the planet has a civilization on it or not.
If we assume space travel is expensive (which is likely), and that interstellar comms are expensive (energy being blasted out into space is not free yo), combined with the above musings about gravity based comms being more efficient/desirable, along with EM comms being unable to overcome inherent difficulties with traversing the interstellar medium with sufficient fidelity-- It totally DOES become "We cannot detect them!"
In order for aliens to come visit us, we have to be interesting in some way-- Space travel being expensive-- If they cannot see us (because of our shitty EM based comms), then they have no reason to visit. If our planet is not in an orbital plane that is directly in the same plane of ecliptic as theirs, our planet won't appear to transit our star: They might not even see there is a planet at all here.
The notion that aliens should have already been here is hubris; It requires a level of energy and information gathering capability that prevailing physics says is not achievable.
Some pundits preen and crow that a species capable of interstellar colonization should have been able to spread through the stars by now. I will give a dashing blow to that idea:
We have been able to go to the moon for greater than 60 years, but have elected to not do so, because of the high cost of doing so, the low perceived rewards of doing so, the greater opportunities presented by spending those resources on more terrestrial projects, and a general desire by politicians to stay popular, and in power. If such things are also true of other species, the theoretical capacity to colonize the galaxy has no bearing on the actual impetus to do so. Much like our theoretical ability to colonize our solar system has had no actual bearing on the impetus for our species to do so.
Again, the notion of "we cant see them! THEY MUST NOT EXIST!!" relies on the assumption that the methods we use to detect them, and the methods we use to communicate, are conserved with them. As I pointed out, this need not be the case, and that advanced aliens are quite likely to have abandoned EM based communications and scanning, due to the issues I cited--- We are not emitting what they are looking for, and we are not looking for what they are emitting. We dont see each other, and neither of us has the resources to just pick a direction and "Just see what we find there."
