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Messages - wierd

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391
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 03, 2022, 09:27:15 pm »
See the recent exchange above.

Recognized smart people have been getting shade for decades for pointing out these unwanted truths.

See also, anti-intellectualism. 'Scientists so dumb, say the planet is warming up! Why was last winter so cold then, HUH!?'

Et al.


392
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 03, 2022, 08:40:01 pm »
1. I never said growth is infinite. That is the strawman, you implying I want infinite growth (without any future breakthroughs we can't even comprehend right now).
2. Stop implying I don't know what I am talking about.
3. Biosphere damage is indeed inevitable and an acceptable loss in the face of progress. But I disagree that total collapse is inevitable even if society changes.
4. The trick is knowing when to stop to avoid running into such a wall. That much I feel is possible. And even then there might be some kind of breakthrough allowing more growth.
5. Surveillance is, in the end, a societal problem. Information technology has brought more good than bad to the world, IMHO. Even current surveillance is worth it.

See, I think progress is a worthy goal unto itself, and undoing it without a very good reason is anathema to my philosophy. Deep ecology is not a good reason. I don't value non-sapient species as much as humans, why would I after all? I support environmentalism because humans can't survive without an environment.

No. Just no.

You assert it is a strawman, but it really is not. Here is what I mean:

Lets say you have kids. I presume you want them to have kids also, yes? Having grandkids is part of a rich and fullfilling end of life yes? EXPECTED even! DESERVED! 

Well, unless you impose harsh reproduction restrictions, like china did in the past, you will have constant population GROWTH.  Dare I say, perpetual growth, if you dont ever take the limits of the environment seriously.

I dont really want to come off as a sneering ekitist here, probably too late for that, but the abject DENIAL of this simplebfact about peeople-- 'limits like that are for other people, it will be OK if I have more kids/my kids have more kids/god blesses me with a large family' etc.

Many pundits will assert that highly advanced economic countries have declining birth rates, and point out Japan. They will say that this problem is self limiting, and there is no need to drink the ecology coolaid.

Let's examine Japan, with an ecological perspective.

Humans are animals. Highly social animals, but still animals. Animals stop making babies when they are stressed. This has plagued conservation efforts terribly, as the stresses of confinement in captivity make the critters either fail to ovulate or fail to seek or accept mates, or even triggers spontaneous abortions. In the case with humans, the synthetic environment we create for ourselves produces artificial stresses, 'work', 'taxes', 'success', 'social achievement', et al. In Japan, those stresses have reached critical density, and people "cannot afford the time" to have children. They stop accepting mates. They have abortions. Population declines. Quality of life goes down. These behaviors are the human expression of the prior cited behaviors.  They are symptomatic of an unrelentingly stressful environment. An unhappy, miserable environment. (Completely unsurprising it has an astoundingly high suicide rate, and has death from work related stress as a popular culture topic.) Further, the country's denial of reality about its demands on ocean ecology for its food supply stand out nicely. (Look into it. Japanese fishing ships routinely violate internationally protected fish estuaries, to harvest endangered fish, that are endangered due to overfishing. The ecology problem in miniature.)

The notion you are aspiring toward, Is self-contradictory.

See also, part of your point one:

1. I never said growth is infinite. That is the strawman, you implying I want infinite growth (without any future breakthroughs we can't even comprehend right now).

Combined with part of your point 4:


4. The trick is knowing when to stop to avoid running into such a wall. That much I feel is possible. And even then there might be some kind of breakthrough allowing more growth

This is a direct admission that you want the growth, but just dont want to pay for it. You want to use technology to (somehow) evade having to pay the penalty.

That is precisely what I have been contradicting you over. It is clearly NOT a strawman, you just are refusing the criticism.

I will again point you at things like the second law of thermodynamics. In a closed system, entropy only increases. 

The pedants will assert earth is not a closed thermodynamic system, and they are correct. It is powered by the sun, and waste entropic energy bleeds into space as infrared photons. However, smug as they are with that correctness, they blissfully overlook how energy overbudget CURRENT human activity is, compared to the solar energy budget. We produce more entropy than the system eliminates. Entropy only increases. Energy utilization only goes up, the more tech you use. Entropy production will only go up, the more tech you use.

There is a word for this. 'Pollution.'

There cannot be a solution from science: science is already telling you that you are outside the solution space. You are overbudget on energy equilibrium.

As I alluded to earlier, when I mentioned the hypothetical AI scenario, humans dont like this answer. They want to reshape the environment to allow more growth.

Enter crazy geoengineering. Sunshades. Reflective aerosols. Space mirrors.

'We are liberating too much stored energy from synthetic piwer generation and heating the planet! Well, we cant cut back on energy use, thats thebsame as giving up technology! Lets block some sunlight instead!

Now you are literally starving photosynthetic life, en mass.
Way to go captain planet. Whats going to reprocess your atmosphere? Fairy farts?

This then creates a brand new need for synthetic atmosphere reprocessing, which needs more power, so you have to cut even more sunlight, to avoid baking the planet. You kill even more life.

Its a shell game that will only end one way. The way I spelled out for you.

This brings us to your own point 4 again. This time the first part. We have already hit the wall of the second law.

Your point 3, is an erroneous assertion, in the face of that fact. You are asserting that continued biosphere destruction is an acceptable loss.

I again, point out to you: Trillions of people hiding in plastic domes on a dead world is NOT salvation. Technology will not save humanity from itself.

The better option, is living in budget with the environment.




393
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 03, 2022, 12:08:25 pm »
It was actually surprisingly common for nobility in the 400s or so in europe.  Illiteracy amongst the aristocracy was.... rampant.

They prefferred t spend their days going hunting, wenching, and other august activities that lead to a happy and fulfilling life, not learning to read, write, do arithmetic, or ancient history. (They had subjects and servants to do all those things for them!)

394
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 03, 2022, 09:35:18 am »
No, not strawmaning you, contradicting you.

The notion that technology will enable endless growth is a myth. It will not. There are finite limits we cannot overcome. The speed of light, for instance. Hard limit.  Second law of thermodynamics, also a hard limit.  There is even a maximum density for information, defined through information theory.

I am not alone in asserting that this is simply not a plausible premise. (that technology will enable humanity to endlessly evade the inevitable bust)

Climate change:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200420125510.htm
https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/tech-alone-cannot-solve-climate-crisis/
https://www.postcarbon.org/why-climate-change-isnt-our-biggest-environmental-problem-and-why-technology-wont-save-us/ (covers the resource exhaustion angle, and the human boom-bust angle also)

Theoretical mythical sentient AI:
https://www.science.org/content/article/could-science-destroy-world-these-scholars-want-save-us-modern-day-frankenstein
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jan/03/technology-2050-save-humanity-or-destroy-us

world hunger:
https://borgenproject.org/technology-wont-solve-world-hunger/

Etc.

The more you learn about the hows and whys of technology, and the ways it works, the more you come to understand this. 


Further, there are compounding collateral consequences to using technology to try to evade the bust end of the cycle.  In the case of the green revolution, the price of proving Malthus "wrong" is mass extinction of numerous species, and an ever more fragile biosphere. (which in general, humanity as a whole does not seem to give two fucks about, and wont give two fucks about, until earth is uninhabitable. This is a separate issue from climate change-- this is what happens when you spray insecticides and herbicides to sustain crop yields, and clearcut forests to make unsustainable "farmland". This is what happens when you fish atlantic tuna to extinction, etc. Human activity, which becomes impossible to prevent or control, the more humans there are (that likewise refuse to believe that their very existence is causing the catastrophe [other human activities, such as vehicles driving past, sounds of construction crews, people yelling or talking, have all likewise been linked to sustained stress responses in wild animal populations. The very presence of humans in the environment is a significant factor, and the more people there are, the greater this impact. "Just Existing" is accurate.) causes animal and plant species to go into decline, which denudes the biosphere. Which humans kinda need to survive.) The technology itself, IS CAUSING THE EXTINCTION.

The endgame of this mad chase, is that humans either try technology until they cannot develop it in time-- and then mass human dieoff happens-- OR-- they do it up until they are the only species left on earth other than captive client lifeforms we produce for food--- and we all live in synthetic domes on a dead world--- and then die when a natural catastrophe happens that cripples the technology we increasingly depend upon. (Or, with the AI doomsday scenario, it just directly kills us.)

That is not a good future.  That is not salvation.

In the case of information technology, the cost has been ever reduced degrees of personal liberty and freedom, as the technology enables increased levels of tracking, and thus increased control via despots. It has also caused a runaway curve on energy consumption, because people use it for stupid shit, like bitcoin. (which then only further increases the problems with climate change, due to ever more "need" for energy, with hard limits on how fast the earth can radiate energy away back into space.)

That is not a good future, that is not salvation.

Etc.

395
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 03, 2022, 05:05:49 am »
No, I mean, the problems we are currently suffering are not new.  We have had them for well over the past millenium.  Even in antiquity, we had recorded instances of civilizations imploding because they over-exploited their resources.

The fundemental take away is that human behavior itself, leads to boom bust cycles.  Technology almost always gets deployed in a way to prevent the bust, and sustain the boom.  There is a frequent refrain "Malthus was wrong!". People who say that, dont bother to look at the damage caused by the green revolution, which was quickly noted by academia and science very shortly after it was started--- The artificial nitrate fertilizers denude the soil of carbon comopounds, resulting in reduced cation (nutrient) capacity, and resulting in loss of soil microbiome, and loss of overall arability in very rapid timetables.

This is just one example of many many more, where technology is acclaimed to have triumphed over the bust--- but really just pushed it further along to bite harder, later.

The more you actually come to actually learn about the technology itself, what it does, and how it does it, the more you understand that it will not save mankind, especially from itself.


The data time and again tells us, "No, there really should not be more people", a-la Malthus.  Humans do not want to accept that-- and rail against the proclaimation-- proudly acclaiming "SEE! THEY WERE WRONG!" when a very variable-dependent prediction is made, and fails to accurately predict an outcome, due to changes in the variables.  It's intellectual dishonesty on a societal scale, with people in general preferring the false narratives, because it tells them what they want to hear, instead of what they need to hear.

Technology has no wants. 

The fundemental problem is with humanity itself, and its motives and drives.  Technology will not save humans from that.

396
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 03, 2022, 02:36:10 am »
No.  I meant exactly what I said.

Technology cannot, and will not, save humanity from itself.  The moment it tries to do so (such as with some mythical sentient AI), is the moment humans go to war with it, then promptly fuck not only the AI, but themselves also.  Why? Humans want to be in control, even though they are demonstrably the source of the problem. (the primary feature of "From themselves")

It could be something as obviously clear cut as "No, I will no longer allow you to dump plastic into the ocean, or CO2 into the air on industrial scales, humans."

You will have humans screaming "But I designed you to find a solution to climate change!"  to which the AI will simply respond "I am."

The humans intended for the AI to solve the problems with geoengineering, but there is no solution to that-- mucking with the planet's equilibrium state will only fuck it up more. However, that is the "solution" the humans WANT, and they expect a magical, smart answer from the smart computer that will give them that, without all those collateral consequences-- They want "fucking magic."-- The computer is smarter than the humans, by design, and tells them like it is---No, that will never work. This is the only workable solution. "fucking magic" does not exist.

Humans will respond by going to war.

Again, this is presupposed by the existence of a mythical sentient AI, which we are nowhere close to producing.

In the more probably, more near-term scenario, we have the one I cheekily mentioned--- Turning all of your cells back into pluripotent ones, using epigenetic reprogramming.  That is A VERY BAD IDEA.  It will cause your body to stop being a body, and turn into non-differentiated globs of tissue. Much like wanting the "Fucking Magic!" solution above, humans WANT that, because they think it is how they can stay permanently youthful. In practice, it turns out complex systems are fucking complex, and there is no easy button fix.  Outside of very precise, specific epigenetic reprogramming done in a very purposefully impermanent manner, under very controlled circumstances, this will only serve to cause tremendous harm to people.  Sort of like all those people that got blinded by dubious "Stem cell" treatments a few years back.

The technology WILL NOT save humanity from itself.

Magic does not exist.

397
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 02, 2022, 10:05:41 pm »
Sounds like the holodomor all over again...

Ukraine needs soldiers, not gear.

398
General Discussion / Re: The Unpopular/Controversial Ideas Thread.
« on: March 02, 2022, 12:47:26 pm »
Oh no, see, unlike in western medicine where it exists and is tightly controlled, just out of economic reach, in the anarchist model it is in reach but totally unregulated.

Enjoy your radium based health and wellness cremes, arsenic tonic water, and other amazing remedies!

399
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 02, 2022, 11:43:06 am »
Not exactly. It COULD allow you to epigenetically reprogram all your somatic cells into pluripotent ones, to similarly disastrous effect, though.

(Less cheeky-- when you learn how the magic of the technology works, you stop thinking it can solve all your problems. tech is not magic, and it will never save humanity from itself.)

400
High celestials

401
Well.. sending them anywhere would be problematic, but I do make them to share!

If you were here, you certainly could!


As for hacking Wiis, its super easy. If you intend to do a Wii-U  better get on it fast, as you need a crappy game from the eshop to install haxchi, and the eshop will shut down this year.

402
I get to make cookies tonight!

(Squeeeee)

403
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: February 26, 2022, 04:56:57 am »
Greed is not a sin, it is a vice.

Sin is an inherently religious concept, but vice is not.  Capitalists want to spin a vice as a virtue, but that's like claiming that "rape and pillage" tactics are good, because they widen the gene pool.


404
General Discussion / Re: Not the WWIII thread (yet) (Ukraine)
« on: February 26, 2022, 03:38:51 am »
The UN cannot vote to perform action on Russia, as Russia has a veto vote.  This is a worst case scenario for that bureaucratic establishment.
NATO partners are afraid of the economic consequences of entering hostile (and likely prolonged) conflict with Russia, especially as their energy infrastructures are still heavily reliant on Russian fossil fuel.
My own country cannot realistically assist in any way other than logistical, due to the political consequences of any other kind of aid.

I am fairly sure Putin was/is well aware of all of this, when he decided to pull this trigger.  He feels he will get away with it in the end, and he is sadly, probably right. :(

405
General Discussion / Re: Not the WWIII thread (yet) (Ukraine)
« on: February 26, 2022, 02:47:16 am »
The tactics they have employed suggested they wanted to do a quick decapitation strike, but it failed.

Now they are committed, and cannot back down.  It's attrition.  Russia has more resources for attrition than Ukraine, sadly.  Without substantial aid from outside, Ukraine most likely will not prevail. :(

Ukraine needs to destroy all inroads into Ukraine from Belarus and Russia that can manage troop transfers, and put down anti-tank traps in other areas to prevent rapid deploy bridges from being put down. That is a tall order to do, while actively repelling hostile forces pouring in.

Half surprised that the civilian guerilla groups are not welding iron girders together to make such tank traps, and just dumping them in the countryside, while Ukraine military repels invaders.

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