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Messages - RedKing

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166
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 11:00:28 pm »
Also now testing positive: the president of Notre Dame University (who was also at the SCOTUS nomination event), and several reporters from the WH press pool.
Testing negative: Biden and Pelosi.

Plenty of recent photos of Conway talking at far less than 6 feet distance with Bill Barr, both unmasked.


So what happens if your entire Cabinet is sidelined? Also, it's going to be some goddamn delicious schadenfreude if Trump wipes out half his henchmen because they just had to have a little political theater for the SCOTUS pick.

167
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 09:23:36 pm »
Trump receiving the experimental antibody treatment makes me think of CKII, and wonder why castration was not the first choice of his court physician.
This made my day. My Khagan the other day had cancer, went with experimental, and got castrated but it DID cure the cancer. I was like "Oh...that kind of cancer."

I'm thinking being that it's 2020, Regeneron will be discovered to cause an insatiable hunger for human flesh. And look forward to hearing Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity talk about how cannibalism is a proud part of American history and it's under attack from these vile revisionist ANTIFA Leftists.


EDIT: Kellyanne Conway also tweeting that she has COVID.

168
even in this confused fake democracy where the points aren't real and the rules don't matter the democrats get low voter turnout.
Well yeah....democrats are the "socks with sandals" of political parties. Sure, they might be inoffensive for the most part and even comfortable in private, but they're embarrassing as fuck in public.

169
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 08:57:24 pm »
("Now *that* would be some serious fucking 5-D chess.")

Or, to bring balance to the Force, engineer three of his own Republican-aligned SCOTUSes (SCOTii?) but by killing off the next four longest-term SCOTen, just in time for not being his to replace, allows three more immediate flips-to-Dem-aligned by the next Administration.
While that would be impressive, I get the feeling most of them are staying pretty damn isolated. Not sure if they were all at RBG's funeral service or not.

170
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 08:36:04 pm »
Guys, guys...you're missing the important part here. Which is that NC Senator Thom Tillis has now also tested positive for COVID.

I'm feeling spoiled, I mean my birthday isn't even for a few weeks yet.

Curious to see if there's a transmission pattern among Republicans in Washington now. Maybe Trump's plan to drain the swamp was to be a Trojan horse and infect himself with a virus that disproportionately affects old people, after turning basic hygiene practices into a political shibboleth, thereby ensuring maximum exposure among Republicans. Now *that* would be some serious fucking 5-D chess.

EDIT: Also Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT)...Lee and Tillis are both on the Judiciary Committee and were both at the event where Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett. An event which also, I believe, included...Mitch McConnell.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)


171
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 05:24:49 pm »
Thanks for the analysis, RedKing. Objectively determining how things could shake out quells fears somewhat and gives me hope.

By no means do we rest with this knowledge, of course, and the general slide of swing states to the right has me worried. You reckon it's from a stronger showing in the debate, or just more indication from voters as the election draws closer?
Well, that's the thing -- there wasn't really a slide to the right. You had 7 seven slide to the left, 2 didn't move (due to lack of polls) and 5 slid right.

172
I'm still waiting for someone to get transhumanist as their top pick.
We need Descan in here, that should do it.

EDIT:
90% democratic
89% green
89% socialist
86% peace and freedom
81% transhumanist
14% lolbertarian
2%   republican
2%   constitution

173
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 05:01:54 pm »
-snip-
Huh, what are EVs? Really interesting analysis, I have to admit I don't really understand the data and how it interpret it so your conclusions are helpful. Where does this info come from?
Electoral Votes.
The polling data is from RealClearPolitics. I use them for the raw data instead of 538, because they don't do any modelling, it's just strict poll aggregation. 538's models are probably more accurate (and actually paint a rosier picture for many states), while RCP has a lot of "toss-ups" and "leans" that aren't even remotely close. But the editorial content of the site has taken a pretty strong rightward lurch over the last 12 years, so I'm not surprised.

174
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 04:39:00 pm »
So anyways....rather than engage with "just the tip" eugenics-lite, let's revisit the electoral numbers I posted about 2.5 weeks ago and see how they've shifted, shall we?

Using the same category of "safe" as a 7-point or greater differential, there have been no changes to the list of safe states for either side, save one exception:
Minnesota (was D+5) is now polling an average of D+9.4, a pretty whopping 4.4 percent shift in two weeks. This may be partly a statistical artifact as older polls drop out of the average. In any case, we can confidently give Minnesota's 10 EVs to Biden, which brings us to 227-108 with 37 states accounted for.

Of the remaining "swing" states:

Alaska (R+3, 3 EV, Trump) - unchanged
Arizona (D+5.7, 11 EV, Trump) -- now D+3, a change of -2.7
Arkansas (R+2, 6 EV, Trump) - unchanged
Florida (D+1.2, 29 EV, Trump) - now D+1.1, a change of -0.1
Georgia (R+1.3, 16 EV, Trump - now D+0.3, a change of -1.6 and a flip
Iowa (R+1.7, 6 EV, Trump) - now D+0.5, a change of -2.2 and a flip
Michigan (D+4.2, 16 EV, Trump) - now D+5.2, a change of 1.0
Nevada (D+4, 6 EV, Clinton) - now D+5.3, a change of 1.3
North Carolina (D+0.8, 15 EV, Trump) - now D+0.5, a change of -0.3
Ohio (D+2.4, 18 EV, Trump) - now D+3.3, a change of 0.9
Pennsylvania (D+4.3, 20 EV, Trump) - now D5.7, a change of 1.4
South Carolina (R+5, 9 EV, Trump) - now R+5.7, a change of 1.4**
Texas (R+3.5, 38 EV, Trump) - now R+3.2, a change of -0.3
Wisconsin (D+6.4, 10 EV, Trump) - now D+5.5, a change of -0.9

**should be noted that the polls are all over the map on S. Carolina. A poll this week from Quinnipiac has it at R+1, while another this week from CBSNews/YouGov has it at R+10.

So overall what we see is a few close races getting closer (AZ, FL, NC, TX), one relatively strong Dem lean weakening (WI), one relatively weak Dem lean strengthening (OH), three relatively strong Dem leans strengthening (MI, NV, PA), and two weak Rep leans flipping (GA, IA). The lack of change for AK and AR are because of a lack of poll data. It would be really interesting for someone to run some new polls there and see if they've followed Georgia and Iowa in sliding 1.5-2 points toward Biden. Which might be enough to flip Arkansas and at least make Alaska too close to call. The fact that the EVs at stake are so low probably explain the lack of polling interest.

I'm sticking by my earlier calls, with the exception that I'll put Arizona and Georgia back in play, which gives us 8 swing states and a tally of 237-170.

To win, Biden needs to pick up 33 EVs, Trump needs 100.

Arizona (D+3, 11 EV)
Georgia (D+0.3, 16 EV)
Florida (D+1.1, 29 EV)
Michigan (D+5.2, 16 EV)
Nevada (D+5.3, 6 EV)
North Carolina (D+0.5, 15 EV)
Ohio (D+3.3, 18 EV)
Pennsylvania (D+5.7, 20 EV)

Once again, Biden can win with Florida and literally any other state. But he also has numerous ways to win without Florida. If he just takes Michigan and Pennsylvania (where he's up by over 5 in both), he wins. If he somehow takes Georgia and North Carolina and Nevada (maybe Trump shits on grits and Biden complains about the Midwest being boring as fuck), he still wins.

Trump on the other hand, has to win at least 6 of 8. Even if he takes the largest five (FL, PA, OH, MI, GA) that only gets him to 99. Which leaves Biden NC, NV and AZ and 32 votes, and yes you guessed it -- a 269-269 tie. It's essentially impossible for Trump to win without taking at least one of the upper Midwest states (PA, OH, MI) and for each one he loses, he basically needs to win two of the others. It would technically be possible for Trump to lose Florida and win the election by taking all the rest of the states, but that's incredibly unlikely.

The interesting bit is that these polls only run up to 9/30, so they don't really capture any movement due to the debates or Trump's COVID diagnosis. Should be a *very* interesting next couple of weeks as we capture the effects of those events in new poll data. It might get more chaotic, or it might be the nail in Trump's coffin. A national 2-point shift would be enough to all but guarantee a Biden victory, and potentially flip TX, AR, and AK. Which could run the final EC margin up to something like 359-179, which would almost but not quite edge out Barack Obama's victory margin in 2008 (365-173).

FAKEEDIT: Oh, and if Quinnipiac is right and SC is actually more like R+1, then a 2-point shift would flip it as well, and Biden's win would actually trump (no pun intended) Obama's 2008 win, at 368-170.

175
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 02:00:15 pm »
To combat the Deep State, we became the Deepest State. All hail Morlockia!

176
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 01:15:38 pm »
Kansas is a poor choice for an underground base.

The bedrock is porous limestone, and the water tables tend to be fairly shallow.  All those derelict missile bases have filled in with water.
Any such installation would have to have regular maintenance crews sent to them to assure that the sump pumps are working, as failures would result in flooding.

What you really want to say, is that he has been installed in the Cheyenne Mountain installation.  That's inside a mountain, far above a water table.
No, Yucca Mountain! All the talk about nuclear waste was just a cover story to keep people away, and they've been working on it for decades.
EDIT: Also explains why Harry Reid was so opposed to the project, since he was one of the baby-eating lizard Jews or whatever the fuck it is they're supposed to be. And why Trump was so vehement about the Democratic governor of Nevada when he was there recently.

Man, I wasted an opportunity by not getting in early on the whole Q thing and engaging in some fucked-up worldbuilding.

177
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 01:08:39 pm »
Since QAnon has essentially become a hybrid Imperial cult/millenialist cult, I'm more fascinated to see what happens after Trump is gone and whether it'll be King-Under-The-Mountain shit like "He faked his death and lives in cryogenic suspension in an underground military base in Kansas, where he will come again when the US needs him most..."

178
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 12:36:05 pm »
Oooh! Apparently the new Q talking point is that Trump actually isn't sick, this was orchestrated to move him to "a secure location" so that the widespread arrests of the Deep State can begin. XD XD XD

God, Qtards are almost adorable at this point. It's like watching a kid angrily declare that Santa Claus is real and feverishly concocting explanations to allow that belief to continue, even as their logical brain is putting the pieces together and realizing with sickening certitude that they've been had. The key difference being that kids don't usually barge into pizza parlors with an AR-15 looking for Santa Claus.


EDIT: One of the bits of evidence is that he ended his tweet announcing his positive result by saying "We will get through this TOGETHER!" which they cast their oracle bones and gematriya about and with a brilliant bit of deduction, realized that TOGETHER = TO GET HER (i.e. Hillary Clinton). I mean, you can't argue with that.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akzx3g/qanon-believers-think-trump-got-covid-on-purpose-because-of-course-they-do

179
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 11:37:46 am »
I'm hoping for him to be shaken into growing up and developing a sense of perspective on the world by an experience that causes him to re-evaluate his entire life and become a better* person.

* Read: basically decent for a change.

I was hoping so with Boris Johnson. With Trump.. I just hope he gets well. He is a 70 year old toddler with responsibilities that he can't handle. He's done bad things, but what do you expect from a toddler? He's still a human being.
I actually hope he survives, but ravaged. In a wheelchair and on oxygen, so he can live out his remaining days as a monument to his own failures. Plus, his base feeds on his projecting an image of strength and masculinity. Tough to do that when you're pooping in a colostomy bag and hauling around a metal tank like a sad old lady at an Atlantic City slot machine.

BoJo, I genuinely wished well. He's a doof, but I get the feeling he's still essentially human. Trump is like an 80's movie corporate villain dialed up to 11.5.

180
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: October 02, 2020, 10:56:20 am »
Prez debate ZOOM meeting!!

DEMAND IT!

(lol!)
In all honesty, that might be a better format. Then the moderator has a mute function. And the image of Trump soundlessly ranting and flailing his tiny hands while Biden lays out substantive policy proposals would be sublime.

EDIT: Wow, I feel even better about putting that walking foreskin on ignore now. "Low-value individuals" indeed.

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