Bay 12 Games Forum

I should probably say explicitly that the longer you're in game after being provided a clear path to victory the more I suspect and want to lynch you.

So make sure you know exactly what you need to do, because if you're still around on Day 2 because you made a mistake I am going to laugh, and then I'm going to argue that you are a great Day 2 lynch.

Quote from: Jim Groovester on September 06, 2022, 07:52:38 pm

Quote from: FallacyofUrist on September 06, 2022, 07:48:30 pm

But somehow, ToonyMan's behavior is even weaker, even scummier.

Why not NJW2000 if he's also part of the scum team? hector13 is voting NJW2000 so if you pivoted to NJW2000 your odds of getting a non-you lynch significantly improve.

I believe ToonyMan is marginally scummier than NJW, and I'll act according to that belief. NJW has a really terrible case, and ToonyMan has no case. There's a slight improvement between 'really terrible' and 'none'.

I don't think you're going to get ToonyMan, but you might get NJW2000.

Basically uninteresting first few posts, featuring stuff like a meaningless and abandoned prod at Knightwing, stupid questions, actual nothing, a bunch of mostly uncontested townreads, etc. Nearly activelurking in quite a spicy early D1.

Dubious posts here and here. In these, FoU claims we were in RVS still, threatens to vote players retaliatively for poor justification (cognitive dissonance here?), or for presenting evidence on them without voting (ditto?). It basically looks like attempts to drive off pressure.

FallacyofUrist is a goofball so him not having a conventionally strong playstyle doesn't condemn him from my perspective.

I agree with you about him making those dubious posts you highlight as attempts to drive off pressure, but I don't really see that as something scummy. I recall a recent game where a player accused me of being scummy because I wasn't even trying to get shot, like that was something I was supposed to do as town. This reminds me a bit of that situation.

Also for me, a bit of POE, I guess... Mostly sure of Jim and Knightwing, and don't want to elim Hector just yet because some stuff he said has town energy. Possibly Max and Toony are scum wagoning on some weird garden path I've wandered down, but that would probably look as bad for them as for me, if not worse?

Fair enough on him being part of your POE. This is actually the point I find most convincing.

First of all, I don't think Maximum Spin makes this vote as town. 'keep my opinions to myself' and 'my nature is to be bold' seem mutually exclusive, frankly speaking. This just doesn't fit Spin's normal behavior. Spin typically hangs back Day 1 - and here he is making a near lethal play based on gut feeling. That isn't a pressure vote, that's scum saying 'jump this guy already, you know you want to'.

Aside from that point, now that I'm back home, from work as mentioned earlier, I can act on the methodologies I described last night. That is to say, who's voting me for the laziest and least justified reasons.

I really don't like this vote. That you drop it later makes me like it even less.

As much as my initial vote was on him, I don't believe Maximum Spin is scum - unvote.

why did you fucking cast it then you fucking goofball

you have the opportunity and ability to do sensible things so why arent you you fucking goofball

I was very tempted to hammer you for your Maximum Spin vote since it looked like a do nothing about to die scum protest but I decided to see if you'd deliver something that might change my mind. I'm not sure I made the right decision.



Not done yet.

hector13's posts are too long but I'm finding at least passionately argued reasoning. I don't think scum sticks out their neck for FoU here. Leaning town.

The parts where he's criticizing other players for cookie cutter cases I'm finding somewhat convincing.

I think this leaves me with NJW2000 and FoU as my choices. I know I said last night I was okay with NJW2000. He gets to live with the consequences of pushing absolute bullshit meritless cases while being scum and now gets to suffer through me wondering whether any weakness in any case he pushes or presents is malicious or not.

Not sure how I feel about the Jim thing... I guess it makes me want to keep him alive, as it's an incentive for scum to not nightkill me. And it's kind of confirmable. I guess it wouldn't make much sense to claim as mafia, at least. Probably Town.

This line kind of bugs me honestly.

Really not seeing what there is to doubt or be unsure about with what I've said.

I'm not sure we were ever in RVS this game Fal. The conditions, the reason, you're puffing things up but one could just relegate it to rvs shenanigans. I don't think town has a reason to do so though, so what are the cases you see being made from this?

Why are you voting for anybody for being scum when you're a claimed third party?

FallacyofUrist

FallacyofUrist

Fal

FallacyofUrist

Well that's L-1 unless I missed a vote somewhere. I suppose I could hammer but I'm not going to.

There is merit in the arguments against him (E.G., FoU has townread maybe two players and hasn't scumread anybody yet) but hector13 planted a seed of doubt in my mind and it's making me doubt that lynching FallacyofUrist catches scum here.

Somebody convince me.

Good morning everyone

Cool, town Knightwing64.

Jim: how are you going to deal with Knightwing this game? Do you think last game will help you read them?

I dunno I'll just wing it like I always do.

Clearly Knightwing64 self destructing isn't alignment indicative but the actual game commentary he's been giving points to town Knightwing64 in my opinion.

third party anxiety

Isn't focusing too much on third parties a classic scum tell, or at least that's what people say it is?

Quote from: hector13 on September 05, 2022, 11:22:18 am

Ruh-roh, I'm worried for town, let's talk third parties, there's probably only one scum.

This post really doesn't fill me with confidence.

I kind of agree with this.

Ok, this has nothing to do with the matter at hand, but either I have full on pareidolia or there is something weird happening between FoU and Hector. I may just be spinning my wheels because the Tric thing wasn't that interesting.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Quote from: FallacyofUrist on September 05, 2022, 12:08:26 pm

Quote from: hector13 on September 05, 2022, 11:23:29 am

Toony you’re not making my naked paranoia any better with claims like that.

How paranoid will you be ten minutes from now?

---

Quote from: hector13 on September 05, 2022, 11:22:18 am

The more I think about this the less I like it.

There are 8 players, with at least one scum and now a claimed third party. As I’ve said, it would seem excessive to have 2 scum and a third party, leaving 5 townies. This TP claims to be recruitable and it seems vanishingly unlikely that scum would not be able to recruit them, else what’s the point of them being recruitable?

It seems more likely to me that there’s one scum, and Tric is able to be recruited by them, possibly also by town to maybe kinda sorta balance it out?

Why would a player stay in the game if they’ve already won, too?

I hate third parties, god damn.

Quite messy, ain't it? Still mad about Busdriver all the way back in Mafiakart Racing - how many years ago was that, now?

The answer is four. And sure, there was a third party there that stayed in the game for some reason, I think... but still:

10-4. "OK."

Toony, you remember Web trying to secretly communicate with you as a mafia-ally. Does this look anything like that?

Initially I was going to say you're reading way too much into things, but on a second look at the entire post it is pretty odd.


I think the 10-4 stuff might be a bit of a reach but calling hector13 scum (in jest, of course) while also mentioning third parties in the next line is

odd.

Quote from: FallacyofUrist on September 05, 2022, 12:13:03 pm

Because role flips are the single greatest information source we have, closely followed by player behavior in thread.

Well, all right. My flip will be completely fake. That is to say, completely random.

Ey, death millers, neato.

Either way, not much else I can do given my gambit ran into hard facts I didn't know.

I think this is the most TricMagic post I've seen.

Do we actually have any record of what scum-Wing looks like?

Demon Mafia and Traitors in the Fortress are the most recent examples.

I don't feel like this is scum Knightwing64. Demon Mafia is pretty fresh in my mind; Traitors in the Fortress isn't but I think Knightwing64 was very quiet in that game.



Feeling okay about Knightwing64, I believe TricMagic, ToonyMan feels okay, Maximum Spin feels okay, NJW2000 also feels okay somehow. hector13 and FallacyofUrist don't feel as okay but I'm not confident in labeling hector13 scum. I think in this scenario I'm most okay with FallacyofUrist at the current moment.

I was in the middle of typing up a post but then I had to restart my computer because I've been trying out Linux on my desktop for kicks and giggles and it's been causing me issues.

Some initial thoughts from the first half of the game that I was able to read and create comments for (that I then lost) and then skimming through the remaining pages:

I read Knightwing64 as town from his first post
I can probably do something about TricMagic, which I'll explain shortly
I agree with NJW2000's read about hector13 worrying too much about third parties for some reason, which is the first time I've ever felt like I've been on the same page as him

What I DO agree with on that post, though, is lynching Jim for being evil and lazy. He's one of several people I have mentally listed as "lynch if too quiet d1".

Can I do shit on labor day with family without people suspecting me for being too quiet

*clap clap clap*

After Maximum Spin's first post I had the feeling he was going to win regardless of what his alignment actually was. He came across right compared Lidku and Egan_BW. I probably would have made the same decisions as NQT, but that doesn't mean I would have won.