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Messages - Squirrelloid

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496
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 03:52:34 pm »
(this is of course assuming the transactions occur at approximately the same time.  Obviously supply and demand change over time, and thus price changes over time.  But that has nothing to do with distance travelled).

The transactions in DF don't occur at the same time, though. They occur, at most, three times a year, each time with a different set of merchants. Merchants traveling different distances would, reasonably, incur different costs for transporting their goods. The only way for them to make a profit from something bulky and low-value like logs would be to raise their prices accordingly. There are never any rival merchants who can afford to sell their logs for less because their transportation costs were lower. But there are lots of cases in which, reasonably, it's impractical to carry logs halfway across the world and sell them for 3-6 dwarfbucks.

Except logs don't spoil, so buying logs in october or june is really all the same - they are directly competing with each other.

Neonivik
I explicitly mentioned guards when factoring the cost of transportation many posts ago.  I also said it was complicated because of differences in how merchant caravans are apparently organized in-game.

497
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 03:50:13 pm »
(1) Price does not scale with distance.  It scales with supply and demand.  If you bring coal from 100 miles away, and someone else brings coal from 25 miles away, i'm going to pay both of you the exact same amount for the coal/lb.  The buyer doesn't care how far away it came from.

The price scale with distance. In this examples it scales backward to the source. If the price to haul coal is 10 every 25 miles and coal cost 50 at your city then the price at the city 25 miles away IS 40 and at the city 100 miles away IS 10.
Proof at the city 100 miles away: if the cost is 11 then the merchant will not even try to haul coal to your city so your example don't hold. if the price is 9 then there is some merchant that will start hauling coal until the price rise to 10,then it stop.
This prove that price scale with distance.


Um, what.  No seriously, that made no sense.

Ok, lets imagine 3 cities in a line.

City A, imports coal
City B, 25 miles away from A and 75 miles from C, produces coal
City C, 100 miles away from A and 75 miles away from B, produces coal.

Let Cb be coal produced in B.
Let Cc be coal produced in C.

Let Px be the price of coal in city X.

B ships Cb to A.  They receive price Pa for it.
C chips Cc to A.  They receive price Pa for it.
C ships Cc to B.  They receive Pb for it.
B sells Cb locally.  They receive Pb for it.

What effects Px?

Demand for coal.  If we assume A,B,C use coal for the same purpose, say, electrical power, then the demand for coal scales with population.

Supply of coal. 
In B and C this is directly related to the rate at which coal is mined in each of them.  It is also related to the coal produced at the other in some lesser way.
In A this is related to the coal produced at B and C, modified for how far away they are.

So the effect of distance is on perceived supply, not directly on price.

I'll permit Wikipedia to instruct you on how the Law of Supply and Demand works.  Of course, as any student of economics knows, by supply we actually mean perceived supply, and by demand we actually mean perceived demand.  Agents are not omniscient, after all.

Anyway, most relevantly, there is exactly one Pa.  There is not a separate Pa for Cb and Cc.  A treats Cc the same as Cb because its exactly the same to A.  Now, this makes it vastly more profitable for B to ship coal to A than for C to do so, but it may still be profitable for C to ship coal to A.

Since P(Cb) = P(Cc), this disproves that distance has any direct effect on price.

------------

Neonivek:
What does the law of supply have to do with this?

That's a rather surprising claim you're making.  I'd love documented proof that the cost of shipping exactly explains the difference between prices in Nunavut and the rest of Canada, especially since somehow the rest of Canada has a uniform price of $1 (according to you) despite variable shipping distances required. 

I won't believe this claim until you prove it, it makes no sense.

(Internet seems to suggest trucking cost is ~$1.5/mile, a 48' truck can carry 20 pallets of soda, and there are 108 cases x 24 cans = 2592 cans/pallet.  Or 51840 cans total)

Nunavut is 1104 miles from MN, where i know there is a soda cannery.  There's probably a closer one.  That's a low cost of $0.03/can to ship from MN to Nunavut.

I categorically reject your claim.

(Edit: of course the law of supply is involved.  But the Law of Supply and Demand is the relevant one, and of course, supply that is farther away is not supply here and now, and so should be weighted less than supply here and now, hence, perceived as lower).

498
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 03:22:00 pm »

Except you only demonstrated it costs money to ship wheat.  The price of that wheat in Rome is the same as the price of any other wheat, no matter how much it cost you to ship it.

So the guy who ships his wheat 2 miles and paid 8 denari sells his wheat at some price P.

The guy who ships his wheat 10 miles and paid 40 denari sells his wheat at some price P.

Those Ps are the same.  Wheat is wheat.  The guy who shipped 2 miles makes more profit.

If expected P x total amount of wheat shipped < total cost to transport, it just doesn't get transported by the merchant.  He doesn't get to arbitrarily increase the price of his wheat.

Well, that was one of the goals of the Edict on Maximum Prices. It attempted to curb rampant inflation, in part through price control. So yes, in theory wheat was wheat and glass was glass. In practice, though, it was expensive and difficult to transport goods over long distances. Goods started disappearing from the market once the Edict went into effect, and merchants starting selling their goods on the black market, because it was the only way they could make a profit. In practice, prices increased over distance.

....

Would you people just take a class on economics already.  Sheesh

Ok, there are two loads of wheat.  One came 2 miles, one came 10 miles.  They're still both wheat.  The price for each of them is the same.

Now, the Edict on Maximum Prices tried to set the price of Wheat below the *actual* price of wheat (for all wheat).  Thus, wheat got sold on the black market because it was worth more than they could legally sell it for.  But *all* wheat was worth that much.  So the guy who brought his wheat 2 miles still sells it for the same as the guy who brought his wheat 10 miles, and the 2-miler makes more profit.

In no universe does the guy who brought his wheat 10 miles get to sell it for more than the guy who brought his wheat 2 miles.

(this is of course assuming the transactions occur at approximately the same time.  Obviously supply and demand change over time, and thus price changes over time.  But that has nothing to do with distance travelled).

499
DF Suggestions / Re: Style of Graphics if implemented
« on: November 10, 2009, 03:13:39 pm »
The problem here is dwarf fortress is already going mainstream. lets be honest theres thousands fans and the community is growing all the time. Graphics should never directly make a game just inprove it. Great example the one and only Elemental War of Magic by stardock nuff said.

lol, thousands of fans is not mainstream. 

hundreds of thousands of fans *might* be mainstream.

Millions of fans is mainstream.

... and that would be looking only the US market.  You'd need at least a hundred thousand fans and probably a million to be mainstream in the US.

DF is a (very) minority interest game.  I'm guessing 3 thousand players is a generous estimate.

500
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 03:10:46 pm »
Quote
not (directly) weight or distance

In Nunavut the prices of goods can more then double due to transportation costs. A Soda can for example can cost up to $5 dollars while it can cost up to $1 dollars anywhere else in Canada.

Ok, so you have a good that you cannot make locally (for whatever reason).  The perceived supply is low because the supply is far away.  The demand is constant.  S=D is much higher than elsewhere, so that's what merchants charge.

Its not because you're paying the shipping cost.  (Trust me, soda doesn't cost $4/can to ship *anywhere*, except maybe the antarctic research station).  Its because perceived supply is so low.

Microecon 101 - price = intersection of Supply and Demand.  That's how prices are determined.  Nothing else factors into it.

So, DF.  There's a fortress.  It has some demand for logs.  It has some supply of logs or potential logs.  These (should) determine a price, (and whenever a real economic system is emulated they probably will - its on the to do list after all).  That price is the price the merchants have to sell any logs they bring for.  it doesn't matter how far they travelled and it doesn't matter how heavy the logs are.

501
DF Suggestions / Re: Style of Graphics if implemented
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:58:09 pm »
Well what does it mean to you Squirrelloid? Chances are the term "Casual Book Reader" would apply to you. What does that mean relative to people who read books as a hobby?

Do you look up what books are comming out? How do you know when the latest book is comming out? Do you know who made most of the books you read? How much of your week it spent reading books?

First of all, being a book hobbyist has *nothing* to do with being more than a casual reader.  One can collect books and not read them, after all.

I certainly enjoy reading a lot.  I own a large number of books, I spend a good amount of time reading, and I like reading involved plots or technical treatments of subjects.  I am by no means a casual reader.

I am not, however, a book hobbyist.  I could care less who the publisher is.  The content is what interests me.  The physical book itself is mostly irrelevant.

So i spend next to no time caring about publisher/whatever.  I spend a lot of time reading.  And I would describe myself as uninterested (less than casual) in books as a hobby, and very interested (much more than casual) in reading as a hobby.

502
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:54:43 pm »
One issue I have with your meals argument, Squirrelloid, is that we know precisely how many meals there are in, say, one dog. There are 5, 6 if you cook the fat. Could you live most of a year off of the meat on one dog? I don't think so, not even if you were half the height you are now and consumed copious quantities of alcohol. Thus, one meal's worth of food in the DFverse is not remotely close to 1/7th of a year's supply of food. Dwarves simply don't eat often enough, because if they did, then they'd spend their entire lives in the dining room. It's part of the problem with the flow of time in-game.

It'd be significantly more realistic, food-wise, if every month in-game was actually one day (or even half a day). Of course, then you run into problems with dwarven miners carving out citadels to rival Moria in under a week, and caravans would be arriving entirely too quickly.

In general, then, trying to make arguments by way of consensus with the way the rest of the game runs is futile, because the game is inherently internally inconsistent. We're best off trying to come up with solutions that seem reasonable on their own, even if they don't make sense when you take the system as a whole.

Any system which imagines that merchants eat more in dwarfbucks than dwarves do while using the same food automatically fails to be reasonable.

503
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:50:59 pm »
I hope those links arn't for the modern day.

Also they arn't the same price everywhere anyway as Nunavut and Northwest Territories say even in modern days.

Those are modern day links.  Do you have any data on the historical prices of cranberries?  Lumber?  Where?  When?

And yes, those lumber futures are worth the same everywhere.  Same with the cranberry futures.

More relevantly, the cost of end lumber products varies over space, but that has to do with local supply and demand, not (directly) weight or distance.

504
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:49:55 pm »
Historical relative prices depend on a lot of economic data, like demand, supply, monetary policy, money supply, etc...  Comparing DF to Rome is sort of missing the boat - Rome didn't grow enough food on its own and had a population vastly in excess of the maximum population of your typical DF world.  How can you conclude *anything* relevant for DF from that?
I think you might have missed my point when I brought up my earlier examples. I really wasn't interested in the conversion rate of denarii to Dwarfbucks. I was, however, interested in providing examples in which a) price increases with distance, and b) transporting bulk (or presumably bulky) cargo over long distances is prohibitively expensive.

It really shouldn't matter what a prickleberry is in real life, because, as Honsoku pointed out, merchants can carry an awful lot of them in place of just one log, and (if people actually buy them) make far more money doing so. But since they do carry logs around with them, they should either stop or charge more.

Except you only demonstrated it costs money to ship wheat.  The price of that wheat in Rome is the same as the price of any other wheat, no matter how much it cost you to ship it.

So the guy who ships his wheat 2 miles and paid 8 denari sells his wheat at some price P.

The guy who ships his wheat 10 miles and paid 40 denari sells his wheat at some price P.

Those Ps are the same.  Wheat is wheat.  The guy who shipped 2 miles makes more profit.

If expected P x total amount of wheat shipped < total cost to transport, it just doesn't get transported by the merchant.  He doesn't get to arbitrarily increase the price of his wheat.

505
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:45:22 pm »
Honsoku:
(1) Price does not scale with distance.  It scales with supply and demand.  If you bring coal from 100 miles away, and someone else brings coal from 25 miles away, i'm going to pay both of you the exact same amount for the coal/lb.  The buyer doesn't care how far away it came from.

Distance will effect if its profitable to carry or not.  It will not change the price.

Supply will be perceived as lower if the only sources are really far away.

Demand will only depend on how much the local area wants it.  If no one wants it, no one cares how far you brought it.  If everyone wants it, no one cares if it was 1 mile down the road or 20. 

Basic economics.  Merchants don't get to effect supply and demand, they are price-takers, not price-setters.

(2) Price does not scale with object weight.  Look at modern coal futures and gold futures, tell me what you find.  It will be educational for you.

(now, of course 5lbs of coal is worth more than 1lb of coal, its *more* of the same thing.  But 5lbs of coal is not worth more than 1 troy ounce of gold.  Ever.)

(3) Your packing algorithm is flawed.  Goods are only profitable if they sell.  Sure, a ruby is really profitable *if* it sells.  What if it doesn't?  He spent a lot of money up front and is stuck with the ruby.  Logs are cheap to buy (little investment), and highly likely to sell.  This is a *major* consideration for a merchant with limited capacity to carry goods - no sale means a wasted trip, and he didn't pay for the fixed costs and inventory costs.  Selling cheap goods allows him to at least cover his fixed costs and clear inventory.

(4) The merchant can't pack a billion rubies into his cart because he does not own and cannot afford a billion rubies (assuming so many exist in the world).  He has to purchase all the goods he's going to sell.  Further, even if he could afford a billion rubies, he can't expect he'll actually sell a billion rubies.  Maybe he buys one and carries it in his pocket in the hopes it will sell (assuming he can afford one!).

Lets consider, assuming merchants aquire goods at 1/3 the price the fortress defaults buying at.

A wagon-full of 50 logs costs 50 dwarfbucks
A ruby costs 66 dwarfbucks

its cheaper for the merchant to bring a full wagonload of logs than it is to bring a single ruby. 

(5) There is less risk *per log* in bringing the logs, and less risk for the whole shipment than there is for a single ruby.

Now, the merchant who brings 3-4 rubies doesn't need a wagon or horses, but he probably (realistically) should want more guards.  A wagon-load of lumber can be abandoned to hide from marauding goblins or highwaymen without too large a loss.  A pocketful of rubies is a lot larger loss to toss behind you to allow an escape.  (bandits being more interested in loot than in the person who formerly had custody of the loot, so should stop to pick up rubies or examine the wagon for valuables).

Neonivek:
There is no markup for shipping raw lumber. 

Current Lumber Futures data: http://data.tradingcharts.com/futures/quotes/LB.html

That is the Price of lumber.  It doesn't matter where you are, that's what its worth.

Some info on Cranberry futures: http://www.wickedlocal.com/harwich/news/lifestyle/columnists/x544100602/Eclectic-Economist-Cranberry-futures-and-the-future-of-cranberries

(note, this year's cranberry futures come due about now, so we'd have to wait a few months before you can look at current futures prices).

Now, try to conclude something from that data that is at all relevant to a medieval regional economy.  Oh yeah, you can't.  At all.

I'd like to see one example where the actual price of a raw good scaled with distance or its weight relative to other products. 

Your argument applies to shipping coal by train cars, why don't they pack those with higher value goods?  Oh yeah, because the coal is available, and profitable to be shipped.

506
DF General Discussion / Re: Oh God what was I thinking
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:05:46 pm »
Of course there's magma.  You have a mountain tile.  Its in the HFS!

So if you find a gold ring you'll have to send a brave dwarf to throw it into the fires from which it was wrought, deep in the mountain, duh.

Marching an army to the HFS's gates to distract the foe so he doesn't notice the ringbearer is of course a bonus.

507
DF Suggestions / Re: Style of Graphics if implemented
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:01:25 pm »
No, a casual gamer is someone who doesn't take games as a hobby to make it simple.

It would be like the ordinary person when it comes to books.

Meaning?

Doesn't want to spend a lot of time doing it?  Sit down play something satisfying in under an hour?

Sounds a lot like 'doesn't want complicated' to me.  Certainly sounds a lot like 'doesn't want DF'.

508
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 02:00:12 pm »
No real life uses those.

You then apply relativity to the game.

I'm not sure what you mean.

You want to use real life prices of prickle berries and logs?  I don't think prickle berries are a real thing...

What year?

What area of the world?

What do we mean by 'log'?  How heavy is 267 dwarf-grams?

What do we mean by 'a prickleberry'?

509
DF Suggestions / Re: Caravan price and weight
« on: November 10, 2009, 01:49:35 pm »
Quote
Historical arguments are ridiculous when we don't even know how much a dwarfbuck is historically.  I mean, yes, maybe it costs 4 denari to move a donkey one mile, but maybe a dwarfbuck is 1000 denari

What you do is you use "Relative" prices.

And the game supplies those...?

A prickleberry is worth 1 dwarfbuck, is consumed at the rate of 7x/year by a single person eating them.

A log is worth 3 dwarfbucks.

Relative prices. 

Historical relative prices depend on a lot of economic data, like demand, supply, monetary policy, money supply, etc...  Comparing DF to Rome is sort of missing the boat - Rome didn't grow enough food on its own and had a population vastly in excess of the maximum population of your typical DF world.  How can you conclude *anything* relevant for DF from that?

510
DF Suggestions / Re: Style of Graphics if implemented
« on: November 10, 2009, 01:43:44 pm »
Well to say casual gamers don't want complicated games is oversimplifying.

Actually, its kind of the definition of casual.

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