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Messages - smjjames

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406
Correct me if I'm wrong, the issue of the NI-RoI border is pretty much the last thing that needs to be figured out before a deal can be inked, right? Well, the problem is that it seems like what the EU can stomach and what Britain can stomach don't even overlap here. The EU hasn't and isn't going to change it's position and whoever becomes PM is going to face the same political pressures as Theresa May did. It's just hard for me to see any compromise happening when Parliament has rejected just about every possible compromise.

407
Sudoku? Is that an intentional typo? I tried to see if autocorrect tried to change it and it didn't. Anyhow, was just a thought, looks like Britain will have a no-deal Brexit crash through no matter who becomes PM. Theres no guarantee that a new PM will be able to negotiate any better because the negotiation conditions aren't going to change, and time is extremely limited compared to two years.

408
Just a thought, maybe the UK should make Sajid Javid PM just to give a massive middle finger up Trumps arse.

409
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 16, 2019, 11:12:55 pm »
Hm, I kind of doubt this, but do they record radar data on those ships? Obviously commercial radar wouldn't be tuned to be able to quickly spot incoming missiles, but theres a chance it saw something. I'd also look at whatever cameras the ship has, assuming that they keep data records which probably again, isn't likely. I'd likely also ask them whether they actually saw or heard said flying projectile. Seems like there is much investigative work to be done there.

It also goes back to what I said about the Norwegian ship, nobody from there seems to be claiming something flew at their ship.

410
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 16, 2019, 03:26:28 pm »
Japan ain't sold on the US' version of how the attack went down. For instance, they say eyewitnesses saw a flying object hit the ship, not a mine or torpedo.

EDIT: here's another source

Which is why when combined with the fact that an Iranian ship fired at least one missile at an US drone in the area, it being an accident is plausible to me. However, having both ships on the same day be hit by a missle by accident is stretching coincidence pretty hard.

Also, all the focus seems to be on the Japanese ship, there doesn't seem to be anything from the Norwegian one, no notes of observation or much else. I'm wondering what information is coming from the Norwegian one.

I know it seems a good deal like a false flag because of contradictions and vagueness and just from the Trump admins own credibility issues, but the negatives from this sort of action are just too high for it to be even considered.

411
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 15, 2019, 11:16:35 pm »
It's on the other side of the Arabian penninsula from Somalia, if they were expecting pirates, they wouldn't be from Somalia. Also, pirates tend to not try and sink their targets, or at least blow a hole in it and attract attention. No idea if Iran meant to sink those two tanker ships, but if the intent was to sink them, then they clearly failed.
It is worth noting that piracy by Somali ships and crews has occurred as far away as the Persian Gulf and the Laccadives (off the Indian coast).  Past precedent thus suggests that the attack being near the Hormuz Strait is not in itself enough to rule out Somali pirates, though it's rather unlikely to be them for other reasons.  For instance, setting aside the MO of the attack that you also mention, the fact that the last successful attack by Somali pirates took place in 2017 and only two attacks took place in 2018 that I could find, both failed, is another more likely reason to search for other possible culprits. 

True, however, blowing a hole in a ships hull stlll isn't typically part of pirates SOP (not modern pirates anyway).

412
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 15, 2019, 11:01:30 pm »
I didn't really hear anything about who rescued the crews, I think there was an US ship that was in the area that did come and help. If it was civillian Iranian ships, that'd make sense as it's close to the Iranian coast and the civillians would be in the dark about their military being behind the attack. edit: Actually, both the US and Iran took part in the rescues https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48648788

Anyways, if the US is behind the false flag attack, that's EVEN MORE brazen than the whole Iraq WMD stuff, and even on people who are our allies. It'd be like, nothing short of betrayal really. The fact that they'd be risking A LOT on doing this and having it not getting out at some point kind of forces occams razor to activate.

-quote pyramid snip-

The mines (if there were any, which the damage pattern seems to support) were placed much too high to sink the ship. This means that whoever planted them (almost certainly not a uS false flag - if nothing else, the current administration is much too leaky to hide it) intended this as a show of force. If it was Iran, rescuing or "rescuing" the crews would tie into that.

At this point, blaming Iran is premature at best - besides other state actors that stand to gain by sowing discord, there are literally dozens of non-state actors that can get ahold of a boat and a couple of mines.

You have a point on the admin being leaky, but even they have managed to keep top secret stuff, well, top secret.

As for non-state actors, you'd think they'd be trying to claim responsibility by now.

413
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 15, 2019, 09:20:43 pm »
It was unmarked? Hm. You know, I'm also wondering how the tanker crew didn't notice a possibly unidentified boat coming alongside them. Sure, they could have taken advantage of chaos when the explosion happened but an unidentified boat coming alongside them would be pretty suspicious just about anywhere.

The fact that it's in black and white is odd also, unless maybe it's thermal, but no mention was made of it being a thermal nighttime image, which could also explain how they didn't notice the ship coming alongside them.

Ok, not to argue against the case, because I'm all for this conspiracy theory, but most security footage is black and white and low resolution because storage is an issue. Cameras are cheap, you can look at anything you want in great quality. But storing it for any length of time is going to be an issue if you've got even a couple of high quality cameras recording 24/7.

As for unmarked boats approaching without being seen. It was just two years ago that we had a freighter ram a US Navy destroyer off the coast of Japan and never even realize it until roughly 20 minutes later. Commercial shipping is notoriously understaffed and they're very large. Depending on size perhaps only a single person on the bridge at any given time. That's assuming they're strict enough to even do that and not just rely on autopilot and radar to warn them of anything big enough to bother them...

It's all plausable. But so is a conspiracy.

The area also is the hunting grounds of Somali pirates, so small unmarked ships aren't exactly rare (though they are always a source of worry).


Might've been the Saudis that did it instead of US proper, though.

It's on the other side of the Arabian penninsula from Somalia, if they were expecting pirates, they wouldn't be from Somalia. Also, pirates tend to not try and sink their targets, or at least blow a hole in it and attract attention. No idea if Iran meant to sink those two tanker ships, but if the intent was to sink them, then they clearly failed.

414
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 15, 2019, 01:58:14 pm »
Trump supporters are so god-damned pathetic. They're falling over themselves to show how gullible they are. While the ship owners and other nations are denying that it was an Iranian attack, they are saying that Iranians attacked a Japanese oil tanker, while they were negotiating with Japan, with limpet mines. They further assert that one of the limpets failed to detonate, and the iranians, fearing they might be discovered, went out there in a boat and took the remaining explosive while on camera... this to better assure their stealth.

If we actually need to fight them, and that's the effectiveness of their armed forces, why should we deploy troops when we can just wait for them to three-stooges themselves to death?

Since the Iranian Republican Guard operates like a rogue military branch, I can believe that happening with bombing a Japanese tanker while talking with the Japanese PM.

Yeah like I don't want to be a conspiracy asshole but we are the only ones with the 90's-era-quality black and white surveillance footage that shows an unmarked boat blowing up the tanker and then we immediately blame Iran.

What noone taking US military surveillance had anything on the level of a 5-year old smartphone to work with there?

It was unmarked? Hm. You know, I'm also wondering how the tanker crew didn't notice a possibly unidentified boat coming alongside them. Sure, they could have taken advantage of chaos when the explosion happened but an unidentified boat coming alongside them would be pretty suspicious just about anywhere.

The fact that it's in black and white is odd also, unless maybe it's thermal, but no mention was made of it being a thermal nighttime image, which could also explain how they didn't notice the ship coming alongside them.

Britain is taking the tack that it was the Iranians ‘cause nobody else in the region has the resources to do it.

I was somewhat confused over how the Iranians removing unexploded ordinance from a vessel is solid proof they did it. Surely the Japanese would’ve been all “hey, that unexploded ordinance, could you get it off please?” ‘cause carrying unexploded ordinance for thousands of miles is probably a Bad Idea.

I think Trump is just trying the age-old technique of starting a war so he looks good and strong for an election.

I suppose the obvious answer would be that the unexploded ordiance would get discovered sooner or later and the origin of it could probably be determined easily, not to mention military hardware falling into the hands of people they don't want it to fall into the hands of.

I hadn't heard anything about the ship owners saying it wasn't Iran, though I saw something about the captian of the Japanese ship saying that something came flying at them and guess what, the same day, an Iranian ship in the area fired a missile at an US drone and missed. So, it's plausible that maybe one of those missiles missed and just happened to hit the tanker ship.

415
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 13, 2019, 08:54:20 pm »
Wonder who Annoying Orange (toupee edition) will install to say them instead after she leaves.

Does the Trump White House even need a spokesperson? They don't even bother addressing the media anymore. I doubt anything would change if he just left the position empty.

I wouldn't be surprised if Trump leaves it empty for a while, after all Trump thinks that he is the best press secretary (along with being the center of infinity).

Still, I do wonder who Trump would replace her with since the job pretty much involves surgically attaching their lips to Trumps ass, which it's not supposed to be about.

416
Time to rebuild Brazil from scratch? That is a hell of a deep corruption.

I knew Brazil had corruption issues, but that bad? I thought it was mainly the monetary sort of corruption (like the car wash scandal and the thing with that lake), this is like, a level above that. Also, with the way the Republicans act, it seems like they'd only be a few steps away from this kind of corruption.

I'm curious as to what Bolsonaro has said or thinks about all this. Time to see if he drops Moro like a radioactive potato?

And yeah, I've heard of that helicopter crash, seemed pretty suspicious for sure, but no conclusion was reached to my knowledge.

417
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 13, 2019, 10:06:42 am »
It doesn't take into account how well any given adminstration will handle the recession. If the Trump admin is anything to go by, it's not clear that they won't absolutely bungle it.

Also, I looked at the current real interest rate and using the 10 year ratio that article uses, it's apparently 0.42, though to be honest, I'm not 100% sure I'm looking at the right data https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield , plus it changed quite a bit within two weeks.

Good luck with that.

Shitler thinks that the new order down there is his southern kin.

It's not so much that than what does Rep. Khanna think the Trump admin can even do about it if Trump were interested.

418
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: June 13, 2019, 12:21:11 am »
The only crossover though is that Bernie Sanders commented on it and apparently Rep. Ro Khanna wants the Trump admin to investigate it. I'm not even sure what the Trump admin (or any other Presidential admin for that matter) can do or investigate about it since it's not even our jurdicision, for one. The most we could probably do is use sanctions and political pressure.

419
edit to previous post: Or rather the one after him, the first Brazillian woman President, forget her name XD

It's probably not likely that Bolsonaro had a hand in any of it and is just rewarding someone he sees as an ally.

It kind of brings up the question of, is the 'operation car wash*' corruption actually real? Since the whole corruption of the proccess brings into question the charges, it's only natural to wonder how much of them are trumped up (not sorry for the pun).

*What I know of, or at least part of the scandal is that they were doing something to a lake, but were using fake material instead of whatever they were supposed to do. It sounds way bigger than just that though and not sure where the car wash part comes in.

420
Holy shit!, this is nuts.

Talk about an AmeriPol crossover...... Reading the thing, I'm interested to see his reasoning.....

edit: Oh, it's due to some expose saying that a judge corrupted the whole thing up. Not sure why Rep. Ro Khanna is asking the Trump admin to investigate it. If anything, it'd be some international or UN court that would do it as it's not even in the USs jurdicision.

edit2: Didn't the previous Brazillian President before Lula also get caught up in the so called 'car wash' scandal? I suppose it's not surprising that the judge was corrupt as well. Brazil is a real mess.

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