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Messages - Duuvian

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286
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 09, 2022, 05:12:13 am »
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/chinas-xi-beijing-supports-peace-talks-between-russia-ukraine

"In a statement, a German government spokesperson said: “Chancellor Scholz, President Macron, and President Xi agreed to fully support all negotiations aimed at a diplomatic solution to the conflict."

287
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: March 09, 2022, 12:16:48 am »
That makes sense. What you quoted was from the article. I pasted it because it summed it up well or was the most interesting bit of it, can't remember which.

Yes, I agree with your main point. I should have advocated more for LNG ships but I think I forgot about that after a while with cheaper fuel prices.

I don't know much about leases but supposedly there are a lot out already that aren't being used for something. Is there some advantages to having a lease without extracting on it?

Fracking was done near me in the last oil boom and I met the guy who spudded the holes by a complete fluke years later after they had shut down production. He said the drilling company he worked for at the time spudded a second hole for the (different) extraction company for wastewater nearby so they didn't have to haul as much away like they were required to. To be fair I don't know if that is credible or if he just tells locals that so they are mad at that company as he wasn't working in the same industry at the time. I do recall the company was required to take it's fracking waste somewhere else, their trucks tore up a local road or something in the newspaper.

I'm glad to hear that renewables will be looked at as a part of increasing US energy production too. It seems like something that could be done concurrently with increasing extraction, and result in more US product for export than focussing just extraction. My preference would be to lean towards renewables but oil/fuel is very expensive right now, Europe needs LNG, and we don't have clean reactors yet. It would be nice if the profits from the coming extraction boom were used to a more significant degree to diversify on constructing renewable sources for the US market to cushion the industry busts that have come with oil price fluctuations in the past and shutters production in the US and if I understand it correctly causes imports of cheaper to produce oil when the price is too low for US producers to compete with. If any of the renewable energy industries require a significant worker base the first place I would suggest building them if possible is in areas that rely on energy extraction industries for employment, because while I have no inkling of how soon and am not an expert, those people may need assistance regarding employment opportunities eventually as time marches on and it would be good to be prepared for them ahead of time instead of figuring it out as it goes.

The state of American popular opinion worries me; I've met three Americans who've claimed Russia is a communist state.

That's a holdover from the Cold War I think. I used to hear that a lot when I was younger from older people. It's kind of like an ancient meme. I could see how an American would default to that if they didn't follow the news or read a book on relevant topics or something.

Did you meet them on the internet recently or are they ones you ran into over the years?
I'd met them all face-to-face during the last 5 or so years. The internet and isolation could've contributed to their beliefs. I think one of them was a con-man tho.
[/quote]
Hmm, I might start asking random people what form of government Russia has and see if this is wider spread than I thought. I imagine it's not common but it's also a subject most Americans won't have much reason for thinking about often except in times like now. Were you able to convince them if you tried?

288
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 07, 2022, 04:01:03 pm »
Acceptable Star Trek future? Is the button I would push in a Paradox game to move forward here. Seriously though it is an interesting article with a different point of view from what I'm used to.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/3/7/xi-should-pressure-putin-to-end-this-war-for-chinas-own-sake

If this war truly reduces Russia into a client of China, Xi can supersede the legacy of Mao, who could only break with Khrushchev’s Soviet Union but never overtook it in their rivalry. He can even supersede Emperor Kang Xi, the most powerful ruler of the Qing Dynasty, who nevertheless signed the Treaty of Nerchinsk in 1689 that recognised Russia’s possession of Siberia north of the Amur river.

If China steps in and pressures Putin to end this war now, with a now dependent Russia as its sidekick, it could dominate Eurasia with its Belt-Road Initiatives. Xi would be the most powerful Chinese ruler since Kublai Khan in the 13th century. This would pose a great challenge to the West, but a rivalry with Xi’s China would likely be much safer than one with Putin’s Russia acting like North Korea.

289
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: March 07, 2022, 03:06:45 pm »
The state of American popular opinion worries me; I've met three Americans who've claimed Russia is a communist state.

That's a holdover from the Cold War I think. I used to hear that a lot when I was younger from older people. It's kind of like an ancient meme. I could see how an American would default to that if they didn't follow the news or read a book on relevant topics or something.

Did you meet them on the internet recently or are they ones you ran into over the years?

290
I found this bill after a browser search:

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/6753/text?r=10&s=1

To provide enhanced authority for the President to enter into agreements with the Government of Ukraine to lend or lease defense articles to that Government to protect civilian populations in Ukraine from Russian military invasion, and for other purposes.

Also that was bad of me to think such a bill would go beyond Ukraine. That's what I was worried about so I hesitated to just call for something like that without trying to learn about it. I would like to help out other countries including China with covid medicines if we have a surplus during low case numbers.

I don't have expectations of Xi and Biden to become best friends but I do hope for warming relations over time between our two countries.

I actually haven't checked this thread lately, sorry for not paying as much attention. It looks like there are a lot of places with high numbers still.

I wouldn't mind a covid lockdown but it might have to be organized in a rolling fashion around the world and all the places with outbreaks at once.

Do you think Omicron will be the last big wave? I don't know but I hope so. If the scale of it goes down at some point I'd hope we might have enough pandemic savvy to eliminate it if that's possible.

291
Having just went through an Omicron wave myself, I hope that there are no hesitations to request anti-covid assistance from the US government if there is a surplus of something useful here. I would encourage the US to approve such help if it is requested. I don't know if anything is needed or what the situation may be in China regarding covid right now but for example if there are surplus vaccines or masks or medicines here in the US now I would be happy if my country sent them in the spirit of the Lend/Lease act against covid. I have heard a person on television speak of a new Lend/Lease act (it was only once to be honest, but it stuck with me) and I wanted to ask respectfully what China's opinions could be on what the US can do to avoid "negatively effecting stability in the region" while still preventing such catastrophes as we see in Ukraine.

One idea I had after I heard about it was for a new Lend/Lease act to primarily be used for joint US and China projects on infrastructure and development in less wealthy and also wartorn nations as I believe that could be a desirable outcome for the populace of both the US and China as well as those nations. Is this whole thing a really bad idea? Serious question as I don't know much about the subject yet or what would be possible or well advised.

292
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 07, 2022, 08:59:16 am »
Yes, I misnamed them humanitarian corridors in my last post and fixed it to say evacuation corridors.

EDIT: From Al Jazeera livethread

Russia will stop offensive ‘in a moment’ if Ukraine meets demands, Kremlin says

Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt its offensive “in a moment” if Kyiv meets a list of conditions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

Peskov told the Reuters news agency that Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action and change its constitution to enshrine neutrality.

The Kremlin also wants Kyiv to acknowledge the annexed Crimean Peninsula as Russian territory and recognise the self-proclaimed separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhuansk in Ukraine’s east as independent states, he added.

Peskov told Reuters all the demands had been formulated and announced during the first two rounds of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which took place last week.

293
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 07, 2022, 08:12:48 am »
From what I am reading in the news it seems like Russia is trying to make the evacuation corridors go only into Putin's control. That seems to me to be forcing the refugees to choose between the danger of remaining or becoming hostages to be used against their own villages.

Epictetus says and I paraphrase that Diogenes told the aggressor at the time, the Persian King, that the Athenians will never be his because they are like fish: grasp them and they die. That is why they took to their navies to fight and that is why I suggest to make these Ukrainians not fish, but birds.

EDIT: I just saw the post above me. I will take a look at it when I see it on the news but Ukrainians should decide for Ukraine.

EDIT2:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/6/russia-ukraine-us-mulls-oil-ban-liveblog
18 mins ago (12:54 GMT)
Ukraine to hold next bond auction on Tuesday

Ukraine will on Tuesday hold the next auction of local one-year bonds to raise money for its fight against invading Russian forces, the country’s finance ministry has announced.

After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, the Ukrainian government said it hoped to raise about $1.36bn through new bond issues. It raised 8.1 billion hryvnias ($273m) in its first such auction last week.

EDIT3:
15 mins ago (12:57 GMT)
Russia sustaining ‘huge losses’: Analyst

The military situation in Ukraine did not change radically over the weekend, according to Nikolay Mitrokhin, a Russia expert and researcher at Germany’s Bremen University.

Mitrokhin told Al Jazeera there had been limited Russian attacks near the key southeastern port city of Mariupol and in the eastern region of Luhansk and Ukrainian counterattacks near the northeastern city of Kharkiv.

“There is a general feeling that after 12 days of fighting both sides exhausted their resources,” he said.

Some of Russia’s vehicles – including tanks and armoured personnel carriers – have become stuck in heavy mud or have run out of fuel, Mitrokhin added.

Amid the issues, Moscow is now concentrating more forces on the Ukrainian border ready for a second offensive, he said. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military equipment is scattered nationwide, Mitrokhin added.

But while Ukraine has tens of thousands of battle-tested servicemen and volunteers to call on, Russia “faces a crisis with decent infantry,” he said.

“There aren’t many cadres with combat experience,” Mitrokhin added, noting that Moscow was sustaining “huge losses”.

294
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: March 06, 2022, 11:29:23 pm »
I like Fareed's idea also because he argues that it seems to have a reduced effect on global warming than usual extraction expansion schemes. I could wish for a too tiny tax not worth campaigning on to remove upon the increased production that goes towards fusion reactor research, but I also just thought of that and didn't check to see if it could be a good idea or not.

EDIT2: Unnecessary edit explanation removed :D

295
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: March 06, 2022, 09:46:11 pm »
Here is a Fareed Zakaria article on the oil situation. I believe it is worth reading.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/03/biden-west-must-sanction-putins-oil-and-gas/

It involves buying oil from countries that we currently do not, which I am in favor of, and also increasing extraction in the US.
Here is a portion of it:

I can hear all the objections from right and left. Let me address a few. Much of this oil and gas will simply be substituted for (banned) Russian energy, so it is unlikely to cause net-higher emissions. There is even an environmental benefit. U.S. gas leaks less methane than Russian gas, and U.S. oil production is also less environmentally harmful than Russian production. In many places, the increase in natural gas could mean countries like Germany could use less coal, a dirtier fuel in nearly every way. In fact, the best way to cut carbon emissions in the short term — with current technologies and at scale — is to replace coal with natural gas.

All of these measures have downsides — some symbolic, some real. But to govern is to choose, and to govern in a crisis is to make hard, painful choices. The country that has best understood this is Germany. It has suspended its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, announced plans to build two new terminals to receive liquefied natural gas, and acknowledged that it might have to use more coal and extend the life of its nuclear plants that were scheduled to be shuttered. These policies are coming from a coalition government whose second-most-important partner is the Green Party, which has historically been tenacious in its environmental goals.

The Biden administration has said that the stakes could not be higher. And it is right. If Putin’s aggression succeeds, we will live in a different world. So let us make sure that he does not.

296
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 06, 2022, 04:52:05 am »
I found this wiki link while reading a news article.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_Russia

Here is the US one for comparison, I looked it up to be fair.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_rights_in_the_United_States

I'm not an expert on the subject but I thought it was a useful link to find in the news after reading this:
(just found this site after complaining in a thread a few months ago about not having a good resource for normal people to read about current event military stuff, can't remember if I had seen it before but I don't usually pay too much attention to military topics unless it's big in the news at the time; they are doing daily reports in their publications with more information than television usually has, but of course take it with a grain of salt if you prefer.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-5

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/explainer-russian-conscription-reserve-and-mobilization

In 2021, the Russian military started a new initiative to remedy its lack of a ready reserve, the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS-2021). BARS-2021 aimed to establish an active reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service.[15] BARS-2021 operated on the same principle as US and NATO reserves, where reservists actively train and are compensated. The concept of BARS-2021 was that volunteer Russian reservists would regularly participate in monthly exercises and maintain their mobilization readiness while maintaining their civilian jobs.[16]

I may have misinterpreted that for this, but it sounds possible:
https://www.foxnews.com/world/ukraine-invasion-russian-conscripts-military-contracts-family

Parents of Russian conscripts who say they've lost communications with their loved ones are pleading with Kremlin officials for answers as to where family members have been sent amid concerns they have been forced to sign contracts to fight as part of President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine, according to the report.

Olga Larkina, the director of Russia’s Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, spoke to Russian investigative news outlet Meduza, describing how Russian conscripts – those fulfilling military enlistment requirements – had been pressured, or at times even forced to sign contracts to become soldiers for the Russian military.

"Mothers are telling us that their sons have been calling them and saying they’re being forced to sign contracts. We believe it’s wrong to force a conscript to become a contract soldier," Larkina said, according to the translated article. "The parents who have gotten in touch have told us their sons were just taken by military officers, stamped, and that’s it — now they’re contract soldiers."

I don't know if that form of contract falls under the Russian Civil Code or if it's completely seperate or treated differently which would make sense, but I did learn from an old website with limited information (so I am not sure if it is still accurate or even if it has some relation to the military service contracts) that for Russian Civil Code generally a contract becomes invalid under pressure. (again I don't know if this applies to the contract in the news article). I read that it is not allowed to force the making of a Civil Code contract unless otherwise provided by law.

This appears to be similar to the concept of nullification of agreements made "Under Duress" in the contract law of some other countries. In addition it appears that contracts in Russia can be voided through a process I know absolutely nothing about and damages can possibly be obtained in some instances, though again I don't know if any of that would be applicable especially with the phrase "unless otherwise provided by law." My apologies if any of my conjecture from search results is incorrect, I really know next to nothing about it except what was in those links and I may have been linking legal things together incorrectly due to knowing extremely little about it but that both involve the word "contract" at least... I checked because I did some small study of US contract law a few years ago and I was wondering if there was a similar Under Duress function, but I realized I am completely unqualified to even know where to start and it would take a long time assuming I could find legal sources in English.

EDIT: Many edits. I'm sad and angry to see what has happened; sad and angry for those Russians as well as Ukrainians and all the others who are victims of these events. I don't know how to say that better in a way that takes into better account of the costs of this war. I am sure with more time spent on this it may have been possible to attempt to be more eloquent and flowery, but as we are both human I hope concluding with the strength of a general principle of shared humanity will suffice for a reader. That said, I don't expect the war to end quickly from what I'm reading in the news, but I am no expert and stranger things have happened before.

297
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 04, 2022, 05:27:32 am »
No point having more soldiers if they don't want to follow orders - the recent reports of Russian marines refusing to assault Odessa is showing that even Russia's elite armed forces don't want to shoot at Ukrainians.

If the Russian armed forces seriously believed in invading Ukraine, they could probably still pull it off. But they haven't even mobilised half of their land forces and seem incredibly hesitant to use their air force so a considerable sum of Russian power just isn't being deployed. Couple that with the Ukrainian forces already being a tough bunch, and all the foreign equipment and training they've received since 2015 like through Operation Orbital, the Ukrainians are stronger than Putin may have presumed whilst his own forces aren't communicating with each other (elite units have been shot down in areas that were known to be dangerous to other branches of the Russian military), aren't following orders, are willingly leaking information and abandoning equipment to Ukraine e.t.c.

This is legitimately just a complete failure. There is no trap here

2. The conscripts were just there to hold territory after the elite troops gained ground. You need a lot of troops to garrison a city and the conscripts could fill the boots. Of course this never materialised because the elite troops got repelled

*EDIT
Relevant quote:
Quote
“The Russians are discovering that coordinating multi-domain operations is not easy,” Deptula told Reuters. “And that they are not as good as they presumed they were.”
This is why transport planes are getting sent into areas not covered by Russian SAMs and getting shot down; this is why Russian vehicles are being sent ahead of Russian air cover and blown up. The air force, army and navy are not at the level of interservice coordination and control comparable to say, the US armed forces

I think my inexpert guess is that the large aircraft reserve is mildly for force preservation in addition to other reasons. If things go south for Putin he can still do the tyrant waltz out of Ukraine but he may feel strategically threatened by the potential of a crippled air fleet from being surprised in the air, so he keeps most of them in reserve I think partially to avoid being bounced whether from G2A or Big Blue Airplanes. EDIT: By which I meant Ukrainian piloted, should have said Blue and Yellow. I have no idea how many pilots there are in Ukraine or what the status is of them obtaining aircraft from the West or if that is still on the table and if so how it is being done.

I've heard there is an age divide in opinion in Russia. I wonder if a general strike is coming if such a large portion of workers disagree.

298
General Discussion / Re: A Modern Problem
« on: March 04, 2022, 04:02:29 am »
How do you think a fusion age (assuming we can even reach it with a callous bastard like Putin in charge of a largely reliant on petrochemical economy who won't trust that Russia wouldn't have been left behind by a change in energy production) would impact your calculations? Actual question, not saying it's possible at this time as we don't know when (if is seeming more and more likely) power generating sustainable fusion will come about, though I'm looking forward to the new materials test.

I also think the oil and natural gas industry is going to try to make hay before fusion comes around finally. They seem to be clamoring for drilling rights in at least the US again after a series of boom and bust cycles. I think that would be bad long term despite the short term advantages as it will already be like pulling teeth to implement fusion widely with such a vested interest against it.

299
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 01, 2022, 06:59:20 pm »
Hey thanks, you too

300
General Discussion / Re: Maybe the WWIII thread (soon) (Ukraine)
« on: March 01, 2022, 06:43:08 pm »
I was going to sleep until the State of the Union, but the posts I made above gnawed at me and I couldn't. I think that I was far too angry to post well. In addition to the overly foul language I feel that I said divisive and mean things and more importantly brought internal politics into something that is far less partisan than most things and did so at a very bad time to do so. I do feel bad at type yelling at Biden through a computer monitor in a forums I doubt he frequents. I was really considering apologizing to Tucker for posting the wiki to 5th column after I mentioned him yet fuck that it's a bridge too far for me at least today. To be fair to him I only know what he said before the war started, not what he's saying now.

I do think that even if there is no fly zone right away, that the preperation in case it is needed should be made ready (I have no idea how long it takes to have ground crews and maintenence gubbins ready). I also think having an army on the Western border of Ukraine would be useful in backing up Ukraine, but while I understand it's not as easy as I make it sound it probably also takes time to put it together if you feel you need a corridor or something. I apologize for not posting simply that the first time instead of a shrill rant.

I also believe I made some false statements, for example about twenty seconds after I laid down to sleep the Polish representitive to something, the EU I think, was asked about Polish government thoughts on ground troops (maybe no fly zone too can't remember) and said they did not support it today. I think I said in my earlier post that Eastern European Nato allies would prefer readying a counter invasion army which appears to have been quite wrong, and it was wrong of me to say that without checking first.

I've heard some pondering on an off ramp for Putin. At least the very start of that is simple, the fighting needs to stop and that will probably take a withdrawal of Russian forces unless one side capitulates, and it looks to be a long costly and bloody war for both sides if that happens. Until then there is no off ramp, but it's accessible at any time. It's not like it's the end of the world to take such an off ramp, after all, not even a quagmire to be stuck in.

Afterwards, I don't know. I had a crazy idea to suggest a neutral buffer state in between Europe and Russia before the war started, but I never saw an opportunity. I might have floated it upon this internet if Putin had made a deal or even simply stopped pressuring Ukraine with a buildup, but in my opinion I shouldn't have at the time because of it seeming like a Dirty Document style suggestion. If Ukraine survives this war in it's current form without being able to associate or join the EU (or NATO but I think the rules disallow that when in conflict), then maybe?  but I also don't have a clue what Ukrainians would think about being such a buffer state if the EU doesn't associate/invite them and their opinion on that is more important than my distant and uninformed guess disguised as an opinion.

Here is the fictional setting where I got this silly idea, a state (created in the fictional example from portions of the two larger powers) between two mutually antagonistic nations, armed and supported by both sides.
https://www.sarna.net/wiki/FRR

Finally LW I'm sorry for tripping out about the joke you made, it wasn't even bad and I expressed my opinion very poorly on a subject that would require far more words than the inelegant if not even insulting way I responded to you.

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