Bay 12 Games Forum

Seeing some claims that Prigozhin is becoming Unpersoned by Russian state media.

It is also important to note that, as a non-signatory to the ban, Ukraine has been openly using cluster bombs from the time this war began, with no special outrage. Likewise, Russia, also a non-signatory of the ban, has been using them against Ukraine since day 1 of the war. Including yeeting them direct into Kiev before the capital's air defenses improved enough (and Russian long range munitions stocks dropped low enough) that doing so became difficult to bother with. I'd bet everything I own against a nickel that adding US-made weapons (which is a Big Deal primarily because the West is beginning to run into serious ammunition shortages in some categories, and a opening a huge stockpile of hitherto untouched shells will greatly alleviate that) to the mix won't make a damn bit of difference to public support.


This war has already created a generational UXO hazard for Ukraine. Adding bomblets won't make that significantly worse.

The section of the Espionage act he's formally charged with violating is

§793. Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information

(a) Whoever, for the purpose of obtaining information respecting the national defense with intent or reason to believe that the information is to be used to the injury of the United States, or to the advantage of any foreign nation, goes upon, enters, flies over, or otherwise obtains information concerning any vessel, aircraft, work of defense, navy yard, naval station, submarine base, fueling station, fort, battery, torpedo station, dockyard, canal, railroad, arsenal, camp, factory, mine, telegraph, telephone, wireless, or signal station, building, office, research laboratory or station or other place connected with the national defense owned or constructed, or in progress of construction by the United States or under the control of the United States, or of any of its officers, departments, or agencies, or within the exclusive jurisdiction of the United States, or any place in which any vessel, aircraft, arms, munitions, or other materials or instruments for use in time of war are being made, prepared, repaired, stored, or are the subject of research or development, under any contract or agreement with the United States, or any department or agency thereof, or with any person on behalf of the United States, or otherwise on behalf of the United States, or any prohibited place so designated by the President by proclamation in time of war or in case of national emergency in which anything for the use of the Army, Navy, or Air Force is being prepared or constructed or stored, information as to which prohibited place the President has determined would be prejudicial to the national defense; or

(b) Whoever, for the purpose aforesaid, and with like intent or reason to believe, copies, takes, makes, or obtains, or attempts to copy, take, make, or obtain, any sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, document, writing, or note of anything connected with the national defense; or

(c) Whoever, for the purpose aforesaid, receives or obtains or agrees or attempts to receive or obtain from any person, or from any source whatever, any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, or note, of anything connected with the national defense, knowing or having reason to believe, at the time he receives or obtains, or agrees or attempts to receive or obtain it, that it has been or will be obtained, taken, made, or disposed of by any person contrary to the provisions of this chapter; or

(d) Whoever, lawfully having possession of, access to, control over, or being entrusted with any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, or note relating to the national defense, or information relating to the national defense which information the possessor has reason to believe could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation, willfully communicates, delivers, transmits or causes to be communicated, delivered, or transmitted or attempts to communicate, deliver, transmit or cause to be communicated, delivered or transmitted the same to any person not entitled to receive it, or willfully retains the same and fails to deliver it on demand to the officer or employee of the United States entitled to receive it; or

(e) Whoever having unauthorized possession of, access to, or control over any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, or note relating to the national defense, or information relating to the national defense which information the possessor has reason to believe could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation, willfully communicates, delivers, transmits or causes to be communicated, delivered, or transmitted, or attempts to communicate, deliver, transmit or cause to be communicated, delivered, or transmitted the same to any person not entitled to receive it, or willfully retains the same and fails to deliver it to the officer or employee of the United States entitled to receive it; or

(f) Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to his superior officer—

Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.

(g) If two or more persons conspire to violate any of the foregoing provisions of this section, and one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy, each of the parties to such conspiracy shall be subject to the punishment provided for the offense which is the object of such conspiracy.

(h)(1) Any person convicted of a violation of this section shall forfeit to the United States, irrespective of any provision of State law, any property constituting, or derived from, any proceeds the person obtained, directly or indirectly, from any foreign government, or any faction or party or military or naval force within a foreign country, whether recognized or unrecognized by the United States, as the result of such violation. For the purposes of this subsection, the term "State" includes a State of the United States, the District of Columbia, and any commonwealth, territory, or possession of the United States.

(2) The court, in imposing sentence on a defendant for a conviction of a violation of this section, shall order that the defendant forfeit to the United States all property described in paragraph (1) of this subsection.

(3) The provisions of subsections (b), (c), and (e) through (p) of section 413 of the Comprehensive Drug Abuse Prevention and Control Act of 1970 (21 U.S.C. 853(b), (c), and (e)–(p)) shall apply to—

(A) property subject to forfeiture under this subsection;

(B) any seizure or disposition of such property; and

(C) any administrative or judicial proceeding in relation to such property,

Just so you don't have to dig through the legalese, this can be simplified to

Whoever having unauthorized possession of, access to, or control over any document ... or willfully retains the same and fails to deliver it to the officer or employee of the United States entitled to receive it ... Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.

If I'm reading the indictment right, he is charged with 31 separate offenses under this statute (plus another five charges under different statutes), which would translate to potential prison time of 0-310 years. The more practical minimum would be 1 year per count, for a total of 31 years, and most people convicted on this charge get considerably more.


Trump did sign a law increasing the penalties for mishandling classified documents under a different statute from 1 year to five, but he didn't do anything with the Espionage Act.

There's no possible gain for either side of this dispute faking it. The most likely explanation is that this is a legitimate coup attempt in which neither side had confidence in victory.


The other explanation I've seen is that Wagner-man expected to face heavy resistance, at which point he'd graciously back down as a way to push his demands. Then that resistance never came short of actually hitting Moscow.

The best speculation I've seen is that Wagner's head realized that he hadn't moved fast enough and/or gotten enough defections. He probably was no longer confident in his ability to batter through the defenses of Moscow. Meanwhile the government forces had the opposite concern. So neither side thought they could win.

This is still incredibly damaging to the Russian state.

The best case scenario for everybody outside Russia is that neither Wagner or the Government Forces manage to win quickly. That would pretty much cut the frontline off entirely even if it didn't result in one side or the other trying to pull forces in from the front to handle the domestic war.

Inside Russia, a clean win for either side would save a lot of pain.

Russia's nuclear arsenal is at sea, in secure silos in the far East of the country, or (for the mobile units) secured by well-armed loyal troops. They have to be secured this way just to make sure they don't wind up on the international black market, something that Russia has good reason to be afraid of because nuclear weapons are extremely traceable. There's pretty much no real chance for Wagner to take any.

Nuclear weapons also aren't something you can fully get control of just by taking physical possession, even in the unlikely event they manage to get their hands on them. Anybody who's making warheads beyond extremely crude first-generation devices includes safeguards that will take considerable time to bypass. This is something that you pretty much have to do to prevent the things from going off by accident.


Whatever this is, nuclear forces aren't likely to come into it. Especially since Putin's been suspiciously silent the entire time, with only a probably pre-recorderd holiday video being released. That's very abnormal for a Strongman in these kinds of situations - Hitler was on the radio issuing orders and asserting control within six hours of being bombed when VALKYRIE went down.