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Messages - notquitethere

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10546
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 21, 2013, 07:09:32 am »
Everyone: my experience with this game had been:

Be enthusiastic -> Must be scum
Be logical -> Probably scum
Try to be helpful -> Definitely scum

Deathsword's experience was:

Say nothing -> Probably town

My conclusion is that actively playing looks suspicious.


In any case, I've downvoted due to the Leafsnail presence. Too risky to send a confirmed maybe-spy on the mission. I think most of everyone's so-called reads are blind gropings in the dark and it's better to rely on actual facts that we have available and the fact is LS is wholly capable of lying and fronting as town and is 33% to 100% spy while everyone else is 0-33% spy and Dariush's vote is exactly the sort of scenario that would make spies want to put more than one spy on a team. I'm open to being convinced otherwise.

10547
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 21, 2013, 06:35:33 am »
Basically what Ford said. You ask rhetorical leading questions and point out stuff while weakly poking people and immediatly retract all statements as innocent the moment they retract. Seriously, why the hell would you point out the people who didn't interact with DS if you don't consider it a sign of, well, anything?
I pointed it out because it was a fact about Deathsword and my aim in that post was to collate all the facts about Deathsword. I found it interesting and didn't know what conclusions to draw from the matter so I raised it. Is trying to discuss concrete information so scummy?

10548
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 21, 2013, 05:44:19 am »
Leafsnail
NQT's recent analysis post re: Deathsword's interactions is really bad.  He just takes an arbitrary action and uses it to try and attack a bunch of random players, without giving any real analysis or reasoning why.  This is bad because it suggests he's just trying to derail any kind of townreads people might have rather than offering genuine analysis to find the scumteam.
???

I'm genuinely sorry if it came across that way. I thought it might be helpful for town to have all the info on Deathsword all in one place. I didn't attack any players, I just raised the questions that followed from the information. I'm not trying to derail anything, quite the contrary in fact.

10549
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 20, 2013, 05:14:38 pm »
Ford
I can see how you might not think it's really in the spirit of the game. I can understand that. On the other hand, with no special roles, true revolutionaries in this game are at a disadvantage and it makes sense to learn what we can from the few definite pieces of information we're given.

Specific replies:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Conclusion: Ford sees suspicion where there wasn't really any, making me more suspicious of him.

Toaster
This is an excellent question.  Since we know he actively voted (only one dumbass has forgotten to vote, and it was clearly noted in the votecount) that leaves two possibilities:

1)  Deathsword failed to grasp the concept of the game.
2)  There was another spy on that team.

I think it's safe to discount 1.  Knowing, then, that I am town, that leads to the conclusion that Tiruin is scum.  Slap him together with Nerjin and we've got this mostly down pat.
I hope you're right (and, you know, not using spy misdirection magic).

Quote
How many spies do you think went on the first mission, and how sure are you of that number?
I don't know. I'm agnostic about the number. Tiruin looks pretty suspicious, but at this stage I don't want to risk sending any of you three on the next mission.

Quote
Also, you missed a big point- Ford *did* mention Deathsword.  (PPE: Ninjaed by Ford)
Yeah, that was an honest mistake and I've apologised to Ford.

Quote
He wanted to send him on a mission... with himself.  I consider this a point in Ford's (and by extension, Dariush's) favor- why send multiple spies on mission one?
I take you're point: it does indeed speak in Ford and Dariush's favour. That said, an obvious spy gambit would be to mislead people into thinking that there was only one spy on a mission when there were more. People suspect Tiruin now, but if you're also a spy that suspicion works in your favour.

Quote
For NQT, this post set off alarms:
Nerjin, just go for that team. We'll only know it was a good one if it succeeds. (Besides, spraypainting isn't that hard, and your team has the smarts, the muscle and the heart to win!)

Just throwing a team out the door limits discussion, plus I detailed some more in my post here.
As I said before, at the beginning of the game I was treating it solely as a logic game. I've since been convinced that behavioural reads are more important than I was giving credit. In light of my earlier belief, wanting to get the game started isn't particularly suspicious. If I was a spy I'd have been a lot less flippant in my early posts.

10550
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 20, 2013, 02:58:11 pm »
NQT, I don't want to quote that WoT, so I'll just point out stuff I don't like about it:
- Why do you assume both me and Tiruin knew that DS was a spy at the moment?
- The whole 'didn't talk at all with DS' bit is just horrifying in its idiocy. I mean like what. How is this even remotely a sign of scumminess?
1. I don't. Reread what I wrote there, bearing in mind the meaning of the word 'or' and the punctuation mark '?'.

2. I never said anything about it being a sign of scumminess. Anyone versed in elementary mathematics could clearly see that there were more people that ignored Deathsword than could be scum.

Your overreaction is interesting though. Feeling guilty, Dariush?

10551
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 20, 2013, 01:22:00 pm »
The Death of Deathsword - A Spy Spotting Guide
Good luck wringing anything out of that.

Deathsword was a spy. He also was lurker and didn't leave many posts. But he did leave some evidence and perhaps we might learn something from it. So here I have collated a record of DS related posts in one easily digestible post.

The first salient point is that Deathsword was against self-nomination:

I agree that one shouldn't self-nominate, especially in the early missions (and even more so in the first one) where suspicions aren't fully-formed and a spy could easily self-nominate into the team.

Interactions He Had With Others

Nerjin
@Deathsword: If you could be certain of one person's role who would you choose to know about and why?
Tiruin, since he is the player here which I have the most trouble reading.

notquitethere
NQT: Since you told Nerjin to go for that team, what are you thoughts on self-nominating, and what changes would you do to that team if you were to be named organizer right now?
I think it makes sense to send the more active players on the first mission, as we'll get more of a response from them when questioning the results. Disallowing team-pickers to pick themselves removes one tool from the spy arsenal, so I can broadly assent to this policy (though I'm not sure what difference it will make either way).
(It is worth noting that I've since been convinced of the exact opposite view, having changed my mind in face of superior argument.)

DS: Deathsword, me old buddy, me old pal. I'm not even going to bother questioning you because you must be a fellow freedom fighter...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
DS never replied to this. The faux-buddying was a joke between us from the Mafia and Masons game.

Toaster
Toaster never directly interacted with Deathsword but they did call DS out for lurking:

I voted Yes (admittably, fairly knee-jerk) on the team for two reasons:  I'm on it and I don't have negative reads of Tiruin and Deathsword.  I can totally see the arguments for totally random teams being bad, especially since my read of Nerjin is plummeting scumward.

I checked back, and my reads of those two are null because they haven't posted jack.  Trying to change my vote now to No, because sending two unknowns won't help anything, plus that whole Nerjin bit.

Toaster also paints Deathsword with "associative guilt":

Toaster, why did you note that Nerjin gave us the first result he got, but didn't act on it in any way? Do you not consider that a sign of townness?

No.  For all we know he was intending to repeat until he got scum, but got lucky first try.  (Yes, I now think there is associative guilt on Tiruin and Deathsword.)  Choosing three random people gives a 5/6* chance of putting at least one scum on the random team, so it's hardly a point in his favor that he went with the first one.

I didn't act on it because it's not useful.

Toonyman
Toonyman and Deathsword never directly interacted, but Toonyman does have this to say:

Toaster is on the team list that Nerjin RNG'd but I would place more money on Deathsword and Tiruin for spy right now.

People Voting For Deathsword

Nerjin 'randomly' picked a team including Deathsword:

http://invisiblecastle.com/roller/view/3917841/


2. Tiruin
3. Deathsword
10. Toaster


Completely random, does not take any of the people who are WIFOMing even a little. There, that is the team I propose.

NQT:  What is your view of the new team?
I don't have a strong read on DS and Tiruin yet, but Toaster seems okay.

Tiruin was asked what team he'd put forward and he said the same Deathsword-including team that Nerjin 'randomly' picked. Tiruin defends his choice of Deathsword:

So, seeing as I'm in the first team, I'd sabotage if I was a spy.

Deathsword
Toaster

Now if any of these two were spies, I'd just sabotage instead - much easier to let an experienced person hide away and play their day game with all the debate, assumptions and all given what has been said.

But...yeah, always going for sabotage here.

The vote fails:
The proposed team was:
2. Tiruin
3. Deathsword
10. Toaster

The final vote counts layout was:
In favour: 4
Nerjin: Up
Dariush: Up
notquitethere: Up
Tiruin: Up

Against: 6
ToonyMan: Down
Captain Ford: Down
Toaster: Down
Leafsnail: Down
Zombie Urist: Down
Deathsword: Down

It's obvious why Nerjin voted for his own pick. I voted for it because I wanted the game to get a move on so we could get concrete information from the first mission. Did Dariush or Tiruin or both have an incentive to put a spy on the team?

People Who Never Interacted With Him In Any Way

Only Nerjin and notquitethere ever addressed a question to Deathsword. Toonyman, Toaster and Tiruin talked briefly about Deathsword. This leaves Dariush, Captain Ford, Leafsnail, and Zombie Urist who never made an attempt to talk to or about Deathsword.

Talking Points

Can we read anything into Deathsword's comment about Tiruin and Tiruin's defence of Deathsword on his dream team?

People ignored Deathsword because he didn't interact much with the game. Still, one wonders why no attempt was made to send him a single question or raise his presence at all by the four players mentioned above.

Why would Deathsword downvote the team that he was on?

10552
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 20, 2013, 11:48:14 am »
Dariush
While your statistics are correct, I greatly dislike the fact that you completely ignore the personal scumminess of everyone involved. Why did you do so?
I think it's best to make short lists and then look at the personal scumminess of each person in that list. So I'm not completely ignoring personal reads- I see that they're important in winning this game- but I think we should give extra weighting to concrete mission-based information. As such, your team is unacceptable with Leafsnail on it.

Another concrete piece of information that has been under-analysed is Deathsword's spy status. I intend now to review Deathsword's interactions with everyone and everyone's interactions with him, giving some personal reads.


ZU, I see your point, but as we have no idea how likely it was that the first team had more than one spy in it. If I was in the pre-game spy discussion, I'd have quickly set up a spy pecking order (alphabetically?) wherein if more than one spy is on the team, one takes precedence for voting over the other. As this would have been very easy to arrange, I don't think we can rule out the idea of multiple spies deliberately or accidentally being put on the same team.

10553
I think if this game mode is tried again, shorter days might be in order. Is there anyone's questions I have missed?

10554
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 19, 2013, 10:30:33 pm »
Sure Nerjin: best case scenario, Tiruin, Leafsnail and Toaster are all spies (100%), and the remaining 6 of us are 0% spy. Worst case scenario, only one of them is a spy, leaving two spies among the remaining six of us, or 33%. Mathematically, there's a higher range of possible spies among Tiruin, Leafsnail and Toaster than the rest of. Thus, we should exclude them from the next mission. The chances will obviously change when we get the results of the next mission, but right now it would be downright idiotic to put forward any of those three.

Dariush, I can understand your reticence but after reading through the various arguments, I think we should allow self-selection: spies can always put other spies on the team. The only thing non-spies can be sure of is that they're not a spy. Not allowing self-selection removes one of the few weapons in the true revolutionary's arsenal. Am I wrong?

10555
Play With Your Buddies / Re: Let's Play The Secret of Loom
« on: February 19, 2013, 10:21:46 pm »
Hurrah! First I tried clicking on the man, but in conversation he refused to give me back my staff. But when I clicked on the staff, he admitted that it didn't actually belong to him. Interacting with him after retrieving the Distaff prompts him to give a snarky comment, saying something about not helping me find the lost treasure of the island now.



So, now I have the Distaff, I still need my Book of Patterns. Or I can just start listening out for Drafts. So what now?

10556
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 19, 2013, 09:38:33 pm »
Just a heads up: at this stage, I will downvote any team that has Tiruin, Leafsnail or Toaster on it unless anyone can give me a compelling counterargument. Each of them has a 33-100% percent chance to be a spy. Everyone else has a 0-33% chance to be a spy. There's no good reason at this stage to include any of them in the next team.

10557
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 19, 2013, 12:36:10 pm »
Tiruin- there's a 33% one of you's scum which is a higher chance than we'll get if another mission fails. Let's play safe and leave you all out for now. Pfp

10558
Mafia / Re: Viva la Revolucion! Week 2, Day 1 - Planning Mode
« on: February 19, 2013, 11:04:49 am »
In any case, let's avoid teams with Tiruin, Toaster or Leafsnail for now.

 ~pfp~

10559
The longer an adventure goes, the more I anticipate sudden brutal death. I hope you get to the museum alive!

10560
Play With Your Buddies / Re: Let's Play The Secret of Loom
« on: February 18, 2013, 08:10:20 pm »
Given the lack of suggestions for immediate action, I've decided to head to the right.



First I go past some more houses, but there's nothing to interact with so I continue on through the archway.



What should I do now?

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