Bay 12 Games Forum

Quote from: Sheb on December 16, 2014, 01:11:35 pm

I'm not sure that's the plan. The world if full of trader willing to make a quick buck by shorting the ruble.

If I could ever figure out the magic that gives short sellers the power they supposedly hold I would be a billionaire in a year.

If I'd have trusted my gut around ~32 I'd be doing pretty well right now.. It's pulling the trigger which is the hardest part. ;_;

Now certain places won't even allow ruble trading..

Ruble hits new all time lows starting today's session despite the unprecedented rate hike. 68.8 at the time of writing..

69.1.. 70.73. 73.70. The rout seems to be on now..

http://rt.com/business/214747-ruble-central-bank-nabiullina/

CBR throwing in the towel it seems.

CBR raising interest rates 650 basis points, to 17%.

From 16 December 2014 the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to raise the Bank of Russia key rate to 17.00 percent per annum. This decision is aimed at limiting substantially increased ruble depreciation risks and inflation risks.

From 16 December 2014 in order to strengthen the efficiency of monetary policy loans secured by non-marketable assets or guarantees for 2 to 549 days will be provided at a floating interest rate, set at the Bank of Russia key rate level, increased by 1.75 percentage points (up to the present these loans for 2 to 90 days were provided at fixed rate).

Moreover, for further expanse of credit institution ability to manage their foreign exchange liquidity it was decided to increase maximum allotment amount for 28-day FX REPO auctions from 1.5 to 5.0 billion USD and to conduct 12-month FX REPO auctions on weekly basis.

That was.. unexpected.

Yeah, this time around the CBR has been adamant about forcing firms to close down certain bets and stem liabilities. I believe the CBR even forced all banks to close their derivative trades [against? or for? the CBR rates], and pay the billions needed to do it so they aren't exposed to the risks. I'm not saying the CBR is incompetent, just they're seriously running out of options to keep the floodgates from opening like they did today, but they're doing a valiant job of stemming the effects as long as they can.

So you are claiming vindication because an effect happening the exact opposite of the way you said it would a whole half hour ago is happening at a certain rate.

No, you're the one with the fantasy that the Yen won't continue to trade up against the ruble, despite the terrible inflationary sith lord that is Abe being re-elected. Fun fact; stability in monetary policy can make your reforms easier for the market to handle. The yen was bleeding terribly for months up to the election, and the landslide election made it recover.

The policy of active currency devaluation hasn't changed the fact that the RUBLE is continuing the trade down against the YEN massively and at a historic rate, against *the* weakest currency on the market, the heel of all devaluation jokes, the Yen. This is an indicator of the ruble's underlying weakness. This is an indicator that the ruble has plenty further down to go once the traders really sink their teeth in. This won't require any increases in inflation to happen, either, it's simply the trend.

Weakness is relative. And relevant in the currency market.

The next stop after those levels is redenomination.

Thanks for contributing.

And once again, look at the Yen vs the ruble and tell me if the yen has fallen in value compared to it. Some things are obvious even to currency traders.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Zeus is the originator of the golden shower, too.

I think waiting a bit for it to kick in works better, like it has been, as the inflation rate has steadily risen as the government releases the actual information. :] I expect 20% next year.