Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - palsch

Pages: 1 ... 6 7 [8] 9 10 ... 138
106
A detailed story about the marginalisation of the State Department. It goes into a lot of the internal conflicts and rifts in the administration as well. It sounds very much like this story is coming from Tillerson's camp, with a lot of it focusing on his having been promised input on ambassador appointments then them being named by Priebus instead.

A radical suggestion is that Tillerson. Pompeo and Mattis should bypass the White House and use Schedule A and B hiring to directly pack their departments with temporary staff that let them at least function in the short term. Schedule A in particular seems to allow any role to be filled for 30 days in a "critical need" situation. This would mostly be to put in place the processes missing without an effective NSC. It would be interesting to see a more substantial discussion of this given I'm really not familiar with the law her and can hardly imagine the potential fallout.

Yes it's at a point where people are working out how department secretaries can bypass the White House to do their fucking jobs.

107
More on McFarland and how she is viewed inside the beltway. It's an honest believe that she will get people killed.

108
... so what's likely to happen if that's true, but he actually does resign his commission entirely rather than fill the position? Doubt anything particularly procedural or whatev' would, but I can only imagine the public reaction.

I can't imagine it does good things for military morale or support from Trump from the DoD.

The reasonable approach would be them making sure the offer isn't made (or order isn't given I guess) without him being sure to accept it.

For reference, the last sentence of this article is about the longest discussion out there of the question.

WSJ now saying Patreus has officially dropped out of contention. EDIT: Non-paywall version. The full article makes it sound like they are unwilling to hear about any of the problems or steps needed to fix them and just want a yes-man in the role.

Then there is this oh fucking fuck rumour. Really hoping this turns out to be bullshit. KT was due under a bus any day now...

BTW, Trump now claims that that survey has been viciously attacked by the MSM and sabotaged by Democrats. So good job on that.

Shouldn't that be vrag naroda?
I swear I made the reference first.

109
Looks like we have one more name for APNSA;

Lieutenant General Herbert Raymond McMaster

McMaster meets the badass criteria; he was a captain during the battle of 73 Easting and was commanding a unit of nine tanks - from the lead tank - which engaged and destroyed over eighty Iraqi tanks that were dug in prepared positions. He is known to be independent minded and outspoken, wrote a book on how the military needs to speak up when their civilian leadership is not effective and is an expert on counter-insurgency including political-military integration and state building. His book also happened to slag off nearly all of the Vietnam era military leadership, so for some reason his career stalled for a few years there before he was picked up by Petraeus for his COIN work. He has since kept rising rapidly since then and is now largely in charge of the modernisation and future focus of the US Army. So he has some chops, even if not in this particular field.

Interestingly, he is active duty military. I'm not sure he would be able to outright refuse the position in the way that Harward did without resigning his commission entirely. APNSA can serve as a military assignment if need be (Colin Powell served in such a role under Reagan). I had seen suggestions that Trump could take such an approach to staff the position if finding a political appointee was getting too hard.

111
I thought Gen. Petraeus had already bowed out? He'd be somewhat controversial due to the intel leak with his mistress that he did anyway.

The suggestion was he wouldn't want it knowing he wasn't the first choice, although that wasn't an official statement or anything. I'd guess it's trying to avoid being nominated and the potential shitshow that would cause.

112
More staffing stories, this time from the DoD. 43 out of 160 positions are staffed, 16 of which are holdovers from Obama. A lot of the article defends the DoD as a department that can operate without many political appointees at the top, but it is unlikely that new policies can be effectively developed and rolled out without those civilian leadership positions filled. Remember that most don't need Senate approval, so this is just them not being picked, not any Democratic party delay.

Here is the WaPo's total appointment counter for Senate confirmations. 14 appointed, 20 nominated, 662 not even nominated so far.

And it seems we have some rumoured names under consideration for the National Security Advisor. In addition to Kellogg and Gen. Petraeus we have Gen. Keith Alexander and Gen. Jim Jones.

Alexander used to run the NSA under both Bush and Obama. I think everyone here knows what that means.

Jones used to be Obama's National Security Advisor. He was not considered a good one, although a lot of it seems to be down to being a bad fit for the administration and being an outsider there.

Also oh god fuck no. Bolton fits more with the Flynn model, but as far as I can see the rumours come from Ted Cruz saying he should get the nod. Even under Bush he was accused of withholding intelligence to push his own agenda.


Finally actually digging into the National Guard memo, it was dated on the day of the immigration EO. Doesn't look like something seriously under consideration at the moment.

Hahaha, even Fox News is now calling Trump a repeated liar, and ridiculous.

Dunno if you can watch this link (Dutch national news), but the Fox News guy snaps at 3:12 minutes into the video.
http://www.npo.nl/nos-journaal/17-02-2017/POW_03375551

Can't view the video, but is the Fox correspondent Shep Smith? He's their token reasonable guy and has been laying into Trump for a while. His job is to commit the journalism that lets Fox be a news channel, which the rest of their commentators use as cover. As a rule if he isn't on the air then Fox isn't showing news but political commentary. His reaction yesterday has finally got Trump supporters calling for him to be fired.


EDIT: McCain not so subtly targets Trump in a speech in Germany. Choice quotes;

Quote
[The founders of the conference] would be alarmed by the growing inability -- and even unwillingness -- to separate truth from lies
...
They would be alarmed that more and more of our fellow citizens seem to be flirting with authoritarianism and romanticizing it as our moral equivalent
...
I know there is profound concern across Europe and the world that America is laying down the mantle of global leadership. I can only speak for myself, but I do not believe that that is the message you will hear from all of the American leaders who cared enough to travel here to Munich this weekend. That's not the message you heard today from Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. That is not the message you will hear from Vice President Mike Pence. That's not the message you will hear from Secretary of Homeland Security John Kelly. And that is certainly not the message you will hear tomorrow from our bipartisan congressional delegation.

Notice who isn't in that last paragraph?

113
Regarding the National Guard leak, this;

Quote from: A suspicious pattern is emerging for how the White House handles its most controversial plans
The incident reflects an emerging pattern noted by several top political reporters in how the Trump administration handles its most controversial policy proposals:

1. Wait for a draft memo of a proposal to be leaked to the press.
2. Refuse to comment when asked about the draft.
3. Wait to dispute a story's accuracy until the story is published.
4. Accuse the press of never having sought comment to begin with.

This makes the fourth (?) draft order that was leaked then completely denied by the White House. The handling suggests these are either test balloons that are then abandoned when they cause outrage, softening leaks to make later less extreme policies look less bad (the LGBT memo followed by reducing protections for trans individuals), faction planted leaks to gain an advantage in internal struggles (again the LGBT memo was claimed to have been killed by Ivanka and Kushner) or just misinformation leaks to make the press look bad for publishing them. Fingers crossed this is one of the latter, although I suspect it might fall more into the first two categories.

114
Anybody know how common it is for the WH to advertise using that method? Somehow seems suspicible to infiltration if they're not careful.

The White House advertises for all kinds of jobs. Not heard of it for political appointees though, let alone such a general call for applications for any position they might be fit into.

The source I saw it from (DC insider's twitter feed, can't find the exact link now) seemed mostly bemused that they were having to take extra measures. Trump had started out recruiting the same way as Obama; a DC staff and recruiting through his own website. That they are having to advertise through other channels - and advertising Senate confirmation requiring positions - is a sign of how hard it is for them to staff the White House. That they are taking such measures while still having so many Deputy and Undersecretary positions open makes it sound like they simply don't know how to fill roles that would usually be fiercely competed for.

115
Here's that job ad for anyone interested.

And the duplicate submitted when they learned how to use formatting.

Wing-it-Foriegn policy, here we go. Also, since I've read that foriegn diplomats are already having major problems conducting diplomacy or trying to talk to the adminstration, this is only going to get worse.

There is some of it in that article where it notes they had no involvement in the Netanyahu visit and even had the Deputy shut out of the meeting he was scheduled to attend. It seems there is simply no interest in having a State Department among the core staff.

The image you mentioned was from here. The Counsellor position at the top was filled but now appears to have been abolished according to the above article. I believe the rest of the latest batch were from a level below that chart, but seem to mostly be from the branch that saw the firings before. It's possible it included some of those on there who remained after the last round.

The executive departments are full of Obama appointees and leaking information and personnel like a colander plenty on their own. Even if it is counterproductive in the short term it's not exactly unnecessary if they ever want to have something even resembling OpSec and internal cohesion.

The State department is always full of past appointments. The senior position fired was a Bush appointee who became a senior advisor to John Kerry under Obama. Most diplomats are career positions who serve professionally under either party. Trump makes that impossible for many.

116
FFS, more people fired from the State Department.

Quote
These staffers in particular are often the conduit between the secretary’s office to the country bureaus, where the regional expertise is centered. Inside the State Department, some officials fear that this is a politically-minded purge that cuts out much-needed expertise from the policy-making, rather than simply reorganizing the bureaucracy.

There are clear signals being sent that many key foreign policy portfolios will be controlled directly by the White House, rather than through the professional diplomats.

Because fuck informed governance and diplomacy.

117
Did the Obama admin or Bush 43 or Clinton admin have any that failed the background check? At least publicly anyway.

Obama required everyone who applied take a separate background check before they even formally applied to the White House position, reducing the risk. I can't find any reports of anyone failing the federal checks but can imagine there were a couple. Thing is, he wasn't exactly hurting for staff. His transition team was ~500 strong, he was riding a huge wave of support, made appointments that reassured those in the party who didn't back all his views (Clinton as SoS, and letting her recruit her own team for example) and had a good reputation as a reasonable and thoughtful man.

Trump had a transition team of ~100 people whose leadership and plans were stripped away when Christy was ousted. They found themselves being undercut by Trump sitting in New York while they were working out of DC. He is working against a reputation that puts off a great many people while enforcing loyalty tests on those who are willing to work with him. They have been putting recruitment ads that mention possible Senate confirmation hearings for some of the roles available.

118
Harward's official statement declining the appointment, translated.

The scariest thing for me in this is that the sticking point was Trump and Bannon wanting to keep K. T. McFarland. I have yet to hear a single positive thing about her. She is considered incompetent in comparison to Flynn, who is a conspiracy nut. She would have made a perfect scapegoat for the disorder in the NSC and doesn't appear to command or owe any particular loyalty in the administration. She brings no national security or intelligence staff with her and is a recruiting negative for the literally hundreds of unfilled roles in the White House. She is, at best, a PR hack who exaggerated her credentials and was a fellow traveller with Flynn on a number of conspiracy theories. Them bumping Kellogg over her for the APNSA seemed like a sign she would be let go, then suddenly they find her more essential to keep than Harward...

There are also reports that the State Department is effectively unable to operate (or at least being largely marginalised) due to lack of staff. Only the SoS has been appointed so far and the only other suggested nominee was rejected by Trump for being critical during the campaign. And now it appears one of the HUD officials Carson was bringing in has been fired for writing anti-Trump posts.

We have a White House that can't attract staff due showing loyalty to the very people who are chasing competent recruits away demanding purity tests of the few people who will work for them. Add in the six background check fails so far and it's hard to see how we will have a functioning administration any time soon.

Even the disgraced former General Petreus is now said to not want the NSC job;
Quote
Former U.S. officials who had backed Harward to lead the NSC said the White House erred in letting news leak of Trump’s offer, because now the also-ran, retired Gen. David Petraeus, was unlikely to entertain taking the post after it was made clear he wasn’t the first choice. The other known candidate is Kellogg.
I'm sure Kellogg would feel great knowing he is the only option, and less important than the incompetent deputy he bypassed for the job.

119
1. They were checking if he did intentionally lie to the FBI, which is a violation, since there was ambiguousity over it and I guess they wanted to be sure, dunno.

2. I don't think routine wiretaps on ambassadors are under the FBI's jurdicision, unless said ambassador was suspected of a crime, which isn't the case here AFAIK. Seems like it's something that would be handled under one of the other intel branches. It does seem odd that Flynn, a former intel officer, would not realize that his call might be intercepted, by a routine listen-in no less.

1) The questioning was part of the investigation which seems to have been triggered by the phone calls. Exactly what the investigation was about is not clear though. There must have been some indication of illegal action, but the only obvious law is the unenforced (and likely unenforceable) Logan Act, which I can't seem them questioning a senior intelligence official over.

2) This may be a point where the journalism and my addled mind are a bit confused and I'm not going to try to dig into it too much just yet. But lots of reports are talking about FISA implications - with the references coming from people with access to the primary intelligence and intimate knowledge of collection procedures - which to me would hint at an FBI intercept. An NSA intercept would most likely be conducted under executive order 12333 and the people writing and talking about this would damned well know this. Seeing FISA mentions so often lead me to think it wasn't covered under that collection program. A FISA intercept is more likely to be FBI than NSA.

Anyway, even if the intercepts weren't FBI, I'd be interested to know if there were attempts to evade the recordings and whether the FBI had full transcripts when they questioned him. Actually, thinking about it, if it was a 12333 intercept then this policy change may have been relevant. It would have made it easier for the FBI to gain access to NSA intercepts right in the middle of the timeline.

120
Which is why we (or Congress at least) need to know exactly what was said. If he said 'don't freak out over the sanctions', that'd probablt be fine, but if he said that and promised something regarding sanctions, then that might be a problem.

edit: That link doesn't work palsch, just gives a 'page not found' page.

Should work now, was editing a twitter link on mobile on a moving bus.

As far as this particular charge is concerned it only matters if he told a provable lie to the FBI. Something black and white in his statement to them that contradicts the transcripts they hold against him.

There are a couple of complications I haven't really seen discussed in much detail;

1) Why was there an FBI investigation? They wouldn't be investigating a Logan Act violation, the only law these calls seem to violate. Was there more there there than indicated so far? Was it really, as suggested in some places, a full counter intelligence operation believing he may actually be compromised?

2) Were all the calls actually recorded by the FBI? Flynn was a senior intelligence officer. He would know that the calls are recorded and would likely know ways around such surveillance. I saw one suggestion he may have attempted to encrypt the call, although it's possible he didn't manage to do so successfully. Could the transcripts have been obtained through other means? Did the FBI even have all the transcripts at the time they questioned Flynn?'

Other stories;

The AJC lays into Trump for evading question on anti-Semitism.

Six White House staffers have been dismissed over failed FBI background checks. The example in the article sounds like she knew she couldn't pass the rather detailed background check and so withdrew from the position to take a job with a lower barrier to entry.

Harward is playing hard to get with Trump. He is demanding his own team and Trump doesn't want to give him it. So he has initially declined but seems to still be negotiating according to other sources. A demand not listed but commonly considered good sense is the disbanding of Bannon's "shadow NSC".

Finally found a video source for this; Mattis explicitly says Russia has interfered with a number of democratic elections (in the context of a question about interfering with the US election), while committing to NATO and saying that military cooperation is impossible with Russia without reform on their part.

Today's great twitter source was Tamara Cofman Wittes, another quarter of the Rational Security podcast. She had detailed coverage over the mess Trump, his Israel envoy nominee David Friedman, Secretary of State Tillerson and UN Ambassador Haley have managed to make over Israel in the last 24 hours. Trump managed to contradict his two appointed officials over the two state solution, then Friedman was grilled over grossly offence remarks - comparing liberal Jews to the "kapo" Jews forced to work alongside the Nazis to carry out the Holocaust to avoid being killed themselves - and came across as weak and ambivalent towards any potential peace process. For the record, his defence over the kapo remarks was a lie; he said it was overblown, regrettable rhetoric made in the heat of a campaign, but that doesn't hold up (paywall).
Quote from: Friedman Claimed 'Kapos' Rhetoric Was Due to Election Fever. We Checked - He Kept at It
Yet Friedman's attempt to pin it all on the tension of the election campaign stands against his own conduct. Almost a full month after Trump's election victory, at a time when there were already rumors that Friedman could have a role in Trump’s administration, Friedman spoke before the annual Saban Forum in Washington and refused to apologize or take back his inflammatory language, including the remark about J Street.

The New York Times reported that at one closed panel, Friedman was interviewed by The Atlantic's Jeffery Goldberg and the issue of his remarks came up. "At a private session this month at the Saban Forum, an annual gathering of Israeli and American foreign policy figures, Mr. Friedman declined to disavow the comments and even intensified the sentiment," the paper reported.

"Mr. Friedman was asked if he would meet with various groups, including J Street. Mr. Friedman said he would probably meet with individuals but not with the group, according to several people who attended. Mr. Goldberg then raised the kapos comparison and asked if he stood by it. Mr. Friedman did not back away. ‘They’re not Jewish, and they’re not pro-Israel,’ he said, according to the people in the room," the report said.

EDIT: Ninjaed on the Haward thing and I didn't even try to document Trumps blatant lies during the press conference today...

Pages: 1 ... 6 7 [8] 9 10 ... 138