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Messages - palsch

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136
Now, I wonder who the heck is going to be the top National Security advisor? I've seen Petraeus be mentioned once. CNN seems to be unsure who the acting NS advisor is :/

The three names seem to be Keith Kellogg, Bob Harward and David Petreus.

Kellogg is the current acting National Security Advisor. He was promoted over the current deputy, KT McFarland, who had faced her own problems. She has previously been caught embellishing her credentials when she served under the Regan administration (claiming she worked on the "Star Wars" speech when she didn't) and has faced general accusations of incompetence.

Kellogg himself was a fairly early supporter of Trump, but I don't have the best handle on where his views rest. Probably closer to Mattis than Flynn, but still close to Trump on his priorities and worldview. If I had to guess, Trump will give it to him given his early loyalty and support.

Petreus still has that revoked military clearance, misdemeanour guilty plea and undying hatred of the FBI and many others in the IC and military. Leaking highly classified secrets to your mistress will do that. Otherwise considered an excellent choice who would be fairly independent.

Harward served directly under Mattis. He has relevant experience on the NSC and NCC. Of the three he looks most qualified to me, although his ties to Mattis do need to be taken into consideration. There were already some fears that too many in the senior advisor roles are drawn from a very tight circle (those who served with/under Mattis), making for limited viewpoints during debates over actions. This would take that trend further. Despite his qualifications his lack of celebrity or public support for Trump suggest to me he will lose out to Kellogg. Also he graduated high school in Iran so might not be able to get back into the country after foreign trips.

EDIT: Now looks like leaning towards Haward.


Notably, Flynn resigned only for lying to the Vice President. Nothing else was mentioned in his resignation letter. It looks like they are hoping his resignation will allow the to ignore the substantive charges against him. Down to Congressional Democrats to keep the investigations rolling, even if the Republicans who head the committees are trying to ignore it. Nunes looks more interested in investigating the sources of the leaks than the substance of the accusations.

There is a special edition of Rational Security, a national security podcast recorded by relative insiders, recorded before the resignation here where they discuss a lot of the aspects of Flynn's actions. One thing they mentioned was the overall timeline of his phone call. Essentially the transition team were briefed in the morning on the sanctions that were to be put on Russia in the afternoon. Between the briefing and Russians being notified of the sanctions (about 4 1/2 hours) Flynn had five phone calls with the Russian ambassador. The Russians then had no reaction to the sanctions. Susan Hennessey, a former IC lawyer whose twitter feed is great for keeping up to date on things, also suggests that the ongoing investigation would be an counter-intelligence investigation, not a Logan Act (criminal, but likely unenforceable) investigation. Lots of other interesting discussions in there as well.


In unrelated news, Obamacare repeal is running into some problems. House Republicans want to do a full repeal, including the Medicare expansion. Suggestions from the Senate suggest that will lose them more than a dozen Republican senators, making repeal on that basis likely impossible. This seems a reasonable rundown of the main players.


EDIT: We also have the Trump administration's first overseas terror suspect. He was captured in Yemin and is currently being held overseas. He is wanted in New York. Trump pledged to send terror suspects to Guantánamo Bay. This is the first test of that pledge.

EDIT2: Trump hired 64 foreign workers for Mar-a-Lago on H2B visas. This is the resort where he is now having unsecured security briefings in front of the paying public, so it's nice to know he doesn't view foreign workers as potential security risks. At least when he is paying them.

EDIT3: Andy Puzder might be facing a tough confirmation as Labor Secretary. Four Republicans are withholding their support ahead of hearings, mostly related to his previous hiring of an undocumented housekeeper. There are plenty of other issues with him that the Democrats are likely to hammer him on.

137
Other Games / Re: SALES Thread
« on: February 13, 2017, 04:19:55 pm »
Big charity bundle at Humble Bundle. $30 for a lot of games, plus few books/audiobooks/comics and a suggestion more will be added during the week. Not going to try to list everything but worth a glance. Charities are the ACLU, Doctors Without Borders and International Rescue Committee.

138
Among this we have casual chaos as Trump takes a serious briefing alongside an allied head of government at a candlelit dinner table surrounded by high paying guests of his resort. This photo has surfaced.

This one has generate a few more photos, posted on Facebook by member's of Trump's club who had ringside seats. This Twitter thread has most of the ones I've seen, which includes the paying member of Trump's club posing with Bannon and the officer who carries the nuclear football while identifying him by name. Pretty sure someone is being reassigned after this. This article goes into some of it as well as mentioning another security violation; leaving a key in a classified lockbag while hosting guests in the Oval Office.

Usually the Presidents hosts this sort of visit at Camp David, where there are secure facilities and access can be controlled. When on the road they usually use mobile secure rooms or tents to handle sensitive material or phone calls. This is an absurd lack of security, even before you factor in the costs to the Secret Service of securing all the guests.

139
Knives out for Flynn.

While the baseline news is that the White House has declined to support him there are more brutal stories elsewhere painting a broader picture of incompetence and dysfunction that goes beyond the Russia calls (there is another in the WSJ but their paywall seems to have gotten tougher these days).

The NYT article in particular paints Fynn as disorganised and paranoid, failing to maintain a proper flow of documents or organisation within the council. Part of this seems to be down to power plays against what is described as Bannon's "shadow council", but the end result is that national security executive orders are being signed without being seen by the Secretary of Defence or director of the CIA. Meanwhile Trump appointees are injecting politics into NSC meetings (one exchange on Twitter by Obama era staffers over bringing MAGA mugs to meetings with foreign counterparts), with at least one meeting of deputies headed by a political advisor (Stephen Miller) which looks to be unprecedented. This has lead to fear of political reprisals and paranoia among career staffers in what really needs to be a non-political, hard-headed body.

One name being floated as a replacement is Petraeus, who is generally viewed as someone who could do the job extremely well. Of course, he was guilty of leaking highly classified documents to his mistress while CIA director, and many at the FBI believe he was let off too easily (he was allowed to plead down to a misdemeanour rather than being tried under the Espionage Act) and should be in jail, which may cause some tensions. Not to mention the reaction of the DoD and CIA if he is granted a security clearance again. This is a guy who the Pentagon was looking to retroactively demote only a year ago, and many of those who lead the charge are still in senior positions.

While the NYT article suggests that Priebus is the one who has repaired some of the problems, another article suggests he is seen as in over his head and being considered for replacement. Elsewhere I have seen a lot of the blame for the immigration order and general disunity on Priebus, and a few replacements have been floated already. This piece muses about his having lost Trump's confidence, as well as Spicer being in the doghouse. Ironically Conway is one of the people named as potentially moving up, even to Chief of Staff, when she is the one who may be facing Congressional/legal action for her statements.

I think the general dysfunction is best summed up by the NYT's second paragraph;
Quote
Three weeks into the Trump administration, council staff members get up in the morning, read President Trump’s Twitter posts and struggle to make policy to fit them. Most are kept in the dark about what Mr. Trump tells foreign leaders in his phone calls. Some staff members have turned to encrypted communications to talk with their colleagues, after hearing that Mr. Trump’s top advisers are considering an “insider threat” program that could result in monitoring cellphones and emails for leaks.
Remember this is a executive branch that has not yet nominated appointees for all top positions (the only name floated for Deputy SoS, Elliott Abrams, was reported nixed by Trump due to political criticisms during the campaign), and is still facing Senate battles to get those it has nominated appointed. This shows the cabinet positions confirmed so far, with 13 out of 22 outstanding. That's not counting the lack of staff in sub-cabinet positions, notably the lack of lawyers available to fight their legal defence for the executive orders.

There is then this considerably less airtight piece that suggests the NSA is treating the White House as compromised and is withholding intelligence to keep it out of Kremlin hands. This is probably sensationalism and I haven't been seeing much backing it up elsewhere (other than to say the NSA has always been selective with its intelligence, and that no-one taken seriously talks about 'spies', especially with regards to the NSA). What is notable is that, until January, the Observer was published and part owned by Jared Kushner, Trump's son in law and advisor who has reportedly been deeply involved in the internal battles within the White House.

Among this we have casual chaos as Trump takes a serious briefing alongside an allied head of government at a candlelit dinner table surrounded by high paying guests of his resort. This photo has surfaced.


The national security and intelligence community types I have been following since the election have had as their first concern that Trump would not be able to put together a team that could effectively manage the US's national security apparatus. This is proving to be very true. Combine this with the security threats and damage that Trump's own policies and associations are causing (an overworked and chaotic boarder agency with conflicting orders, ISIS and related groups being handed recruiting windfalls in the Muslim ban, that same ban causing allies and intelligence sources to stop cooperating in the middle east, backing off on white nationalist terrorist groups, lack of trust of the White House from the IC due to the Russia ties) and things are extremely scary. It looks like any threat, any action against the US, is likely to be played for political gain, and that any practical reaction will be chaotic, under informed and poorly coordinated.

140
I was being flippant, but I think the bigger worry is that this is the level of fact checking that is done before highly public statements are made at the highest level. I find it hard to believe that Obama would quote a blog post without reading the thing. Trump's priorities are all wrong, and that leads to actions being taken in ignorance.

Unrelated, elements of the Russia dossier have been corroborated.
Quote
None of the newly learned information relates to the salacious allegations in the dossier. Rather it relates to conversations between foreign nationals. The dossier details about a dozen conversations between senior Russian officials and other Russian individuals. Sources would not confirm which specific conversations were intercepted or the content of those discussions due to the classified nature of US intelligence collection programs.
But the intercepts do confirm that some of the conversations described in the dossier took place between the same individuals on the same days and from the same locations as detailed in the dossier, according to the officials. CNN has not confirmed whether any content relates to then-candidate Trump.
Quote
US intelligence officials emphasize the conversations were solely between foreign nationals, including those in or tied to the Russian government, intercepted during routine intelligence gathering.
Some of the individuals involved in the intercepted communications were known to the US intelligence community as "heavily involved" in collecting information damaging to Hillary Clinton and helpful to Donald Trump, two of the officials tell CNN.

Meanwhile immigration raids are picking up.

Finally, Trump won't be appealing the stay on his immigration ban. This means it will remain unenforced until a full hearing can be held on the merits, and likely appealed up to the Supreme Court on that basis.

141
Another piece from WaPo on the Flynn saga.

Trump doesn't read, just watches TV. Here he cites an article that described the immigration order as "incompetent malevolence" because it was selectively quoted on Morning Joe. I strongly recommend the original along with the rest of Lawfare's coverage. Ben Wittes has been good on Twitter as well where he has been highlighting some of his most biting criticisms of Trump so far.

Breitbart got an interview with Sean Spicer. It rates an AV club review.
Quote
The crucial first interview after this ruling with White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer was given to the glorious official news outlet of the Trump administration, Breitbart News. Conducted by a boy in a suit named Charlie Spiering, it is a glorious two-minute comedy of errors, with production qualities rivaling the cringe-inducing crap cinema of Fateful Findings, A Talking Cat!?!, and even The Room. It is worth discussing in its entirety.
Youtube mirror in case the Facebook video doesn't work. It really is something else. Other highlights include Spicer getting the OLC's name wrong (Office of Legal Compliance rather than Counsel).

142
Still developing and pretty big story; Mike Flynn appears to have lied about discussing lifting sanctions against Russia with the Russian ambassador during the transition.

This story broke ages ago, but was denied and there was a conflict between different sources as to whether or not the conversation did take place. This piece is the best roundup of all the various stages up till yesterday evening and the confirmation in the Washington Post that the conversation did happen, was recorded and a transcript existed. This was based on nine separate sources.

Where this gets really spicy is that Pence himself issued a denial that the conversation happened. This has now been walked back, with a statement that Pence simply repeated what he was told by Flynn. It appears that now the White House is confirming this, although I can't find a primary source for that. The senior Democratic member of the House intelligence committee (who would have access to any transcripts of such a conversation IIRC) has called for his resignation in the last hour.

EDIT: Also, Trump blocks Elliott Abrams as Deputy Secretary of State because Abrams criticised him during the campaign. Finding experienced diplomats who haven't criticised Trump is going to remain tough.

143
Regarding the travel ban, it is possible that they could try to delay a SCOTUS decision, but not long enough to appoint a new justice. They may still want to for a Solicitor General.

They could ask the 9th circuit to hold an en blanc hearing of 11 judges (or even, theoretically, all 29 who sit in the court) rather than the 3 that heard the case originally. I can imagine they would hold an 11 judge hearing (likely the same result as the original opinion) then call for a 29 judge hearing which would be rejected, causing a week and half to two weeks delay.

As noted in SCOTUS blog, the SCOTUS appeal would go to Kennedy specifically, who can then act alone or refer it to the entire court. My SCOTUS protocol is a little rusty, but I believe it is traditional that they may reject petitions unilaterally (without referring to the full court) but not reverse or decide points without such a referral. So if Kennedy believes there is any case to be answered it would be referred to the full court.

This leaves the administration a bit screwed as, as noted at the end of the SCOTUSblog piece, they don't yet have a Solicitor General (the position that argues for the government in front of the Supreme Court) and have been relying on lower level Obama era workers for the filings to date. This is made worse by their nominee withdrawing yesterday (which may or may not be related) and no replacement named as of yet. It is extremely likely that the replacement would be George Conway, Kellyanne Conway’s husband. He has relevant experience and is strong conservative credentials with relevant appellate experience; a Federalist society member, Republican donor, representative for Paula Jones against Bill Clinton and representative for Philip Morris in a high profile defamation case against ABC News. Those are huge points in his favour as far as Trump would be concerned. He has argued one (won) case in front of the Supreme Court, which found that Dodd-Frank section 10(b) doesn't apply to non-US security trades.

I would expect that he would be approved by the Senate - not doing so would be extraordinary - but the Democrats would be motivated to drag out the process and make a lot of noise about his history as well as his wife's position in the administration. If the ethics complaints against Kellyanne filed yesterday in the office of government ethics by both Chaffetz and Cummings (Republican and Democratic senior members of the House oversight committee) it could get even uglier and any confirmed ethics violations by her could taint him, especially if the HOC decides to hold their own hearings about the Nordstrom issue.

Right now my bet is that they don't have a confirmed SG at the time the case goes to the Supreme Court, but they would still want delays to try to put together an appellate team from the remains of Obama's Solicitor General office. They do have a Principle Deputy appointed (does not require Senate confirmation) who is serving as Acting SG, but he did not sign the appeal that went to the 9th circuit. The reason being the traditionally conservative but gradually evolving Jones Day firm where he worked filed a brief opposing the executive order. This caused both Noel Francisco and Chad Readler (the acting Attorney General and previous other point man on the issue) to step back from the case.

144
Yeah, as I and others have posted articles to, declaring the Muslim Brotherhood as a whole would be counterproductive because it's an umbrella organization. Basically, it's like any large mostly decentralized organization like say, Masons maybe, or the Greek Fraternities*. There are many branches and 'chapters', so, some of them will have bad reputations, but that doesn't neccesarily mean the entire organization is bad.

*I know the Greek Fraternity system is troubled, but it doesn't neccesarily mean 100% of them are bad.

From the link in the first article I posted, this is an even better overview, with a better (IMO) comparison;
Quote
At a global level, the Brotherhood is no Mafia. Nor is it a rigid and disciplined Stalinist-style Comintern. It most closely resembles today’s Socialist International: a tame framework for a group of loosely linked, ideologically similar movements that recognize each other, swap stories and experiences in occasional meetings, and happily subscribe to a formally international ideology without giving it much priority. There is every reason to be interested in the Brotherhood’s myriad (and surprisingly diverse) country branches, but there is no reason to fear it as a menacing global web.

They also touch on the Hamas question there, where the group is a non-Brotherhood organisation that has assimilated a group that had merged with a Brotherhood founded splinter group, and so can be said to still have some ties.

145
Timely.
Quote
Characterizing the Muslim Brotherhood as akin to violent extremists like the Islamic State and al-Qaeda is not only factually wrong, it is likely to be counterproductive. If the Trump administration is going to “eradicate Islamic radicalism,” it first needs to understand it. At a bare minimum, that means recognizing that the Muslim Brotherhood, like Islam as a whole, defies monolithic categorization; it’s an organization that is sometimes problematic and sometimes a U.S. partner. The terrorist designation for the Muslim Brotherhood must be rejected for what it is—an unfounded generalization that undermines our objectives abroad.

146
The real problem with attacking Muslim Brotherhood, who are the biggest "mainstream" Sunni Islam islamic group is that they are a publicly announced group with politicians and the like. By taking them out, you just radicalize things more because you drive everyone underground - basically into the arms of ISIS. ISIS are a rival to the Muslim Brotherhood for the same eyes and ears. Taking them out is dumb.

It's more that the Muslim Brotherhood are an umbrella group, if even that. These days it is almost more of a term for a collection of groups that originated from the Egyptian brotherhood, many of which are mainstream political parties, some of which are illegal groups in countries that have banned them, and which all embrace different tactics and goals according to their situation.

This is what would make any designation of them as a terrorist organisation illegal.
Quote
The short answer is that the Brotherhood is not in a meaningful sense a single organization at all; elements of it can be designated and have been designated, and other elements certainly cannot be. As a whole, it is simply too diffuse and diverse to characterize. And it certainly cannot be said as a whole to engage in terrorism that threatens the United States.
The designation would be in terms of the material support statute, which would make it illegal to knowingly provide "material support or resources to a foreign terrorist organization" or conspire/attempt to do so with extremely harsh penalties. It could also have serious diplomatic consequences with a number of countries. From the Lawfare piece;
Quote
Other Brotherhood chapters have not been so antagonistic toward their local rulers, especially in countries where they have been allowed to participate in electoral politics. Brotherhood parties have fielded candidates and hold seats in parliament in several countries, like Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Yemen, and Israel. The vice president of Iraq during the American occupation was also a Brotherhood member. And the Brotherhood-associated party in Morocco led the last government and is slated to lead the next one. As is true with Hizballah ministers and parliament members in Lebanon, an terrorist designation of the Brotherhood would thus forbid the U.S. government from engaging with foreign officials who hail from these parties; this could severely constrain U.S. government partnership with the Moroccan government, which is a major counterterrorism partner.

147
General Discussion / Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« on: July 01, 2016, 11:10:33 am »
How'd that work out? Though I guess screwing your country over by a sixth is better than a third? Again assuming the VAT is/was actually screwing the country over. Not sure I'd agree with that assumption, m'self, but it seems to be the one folks railing about the thing are making.

There have been plenty of tax reforms at the same time, a couple progressive and from the Lib Dem manifesto (eg, £10,000 income tax allowance, increasing over time) and lots less so. Pinning down the impact of VAT changes is hard.

I'm personally not a fan due to the regressive nature of VAT (hits those who spend a higher percentage of their income harder proportionally speaking) and would love to see the EU lower the VAT requirements. I can't imagine leaving would actually lower it in the UK though, and the existence of EU controls only mattered in, well, the one case of tampons.

I might try to summarise the Conservative leadership race later (the Labour challenge looks on hold for the moment) but need an extended break first.

And by break I mean beer.

148
General Discussion / Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« on: July 01, 2016, 08:38:07 am »
... that said, it again looks a lot like the UK was shafting their electorate a fair bit all their lonesome on that front, to say nothing about whatever extent they buggered up doing anything about problem points in treating with the EU itself. EU floor for non-necessities is 15% -- UK's government bumped that to 20% for the UK itself a few years back. Don't actually know where the money goes/what it's used for, but that does say that the UK's politicians took it upon themselves to fuck their nation at least a third as much as the EU did if you consider the VAT a proper rodgering.

VAT in the UK for years was 17.5%. After the 2008 crash it was dropped to 15% temporarily for one year as a stimulus measure (get people and businesses spending money). Then in 2011 the coalition raised it to 20% as part of Osborne's first emergency budget. VAT is treated as general taxation and not ring-fenced in the UK, so it goes the same places as income or corporation taxes.

And just as a correction to my earlier post, tampons were under the 5% reduced rate and the February deal that Cameron got from the EU would have made them exempt.

149
General Discussion / Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« on: July 01, 2016, 02:27:01 am »
Since the leave vote passed, has the UKIP campaign introduced any legislation to do a thing about the fucking fishing rights?

Figured I'd have a go at this one as well.


UKIP only have one MP and he can't introduce any legislation. Outside of government, bills are proposed through private member bills (wiki page chosen for use of the word 'shenanigans') and Douglas Carswell doesn't have any to use to my knowledge.

This seems to be UKIPs proposals regarding fisheries, not exactly legislative language, let alone possible given that UK fisheries are always going to be subject to international agreements. Fish don't exactly respect national waters and scientific stock management (in co-ordination with other nations) is critical.

Note that Farage did sit on the fisheries committee in the European Parliament and didn't bother to attend their meetings, so it is debatable how much he gives a fuck about British fishermen given he won't speak up for them in a body that might actually be able to exercise some power in their favour.

This is a strong argument in favour of EU fisheries management from a UK perspective. A lot of the problems fishermen (especially small, independent fishermen) have is down to the British management of our quotas. We essentially privatised them and allowed a few large companies/trawlers to buy up the rights to our stocks. This is why one Dutch boat accounts for 23% of the British quota. Greenpeace is actually suing the UK under EU law for mismanaging our quota.

150
General Discussion / Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« on: July 01, 2016, 12:10:35 am »
The only VAT policy that UKIP wants to remove is making tampons exempt from the VAT.  Which evil law by the EU forces the British government to have a VAT on tampons?

This is actually a thing.

The EU sets a floor rate of VAT of 15% on all goods and services except for a list of exemptions. These exemptions were grandfathered in in 1991, so products that have always had a reduced/zero VAT rate can maintain it, but you can't drop it on anything else below 15%.

Note that there are proposals in Brussels to relax this, either by granting greater general flexibility of VAT rates as a whole or by regular revision of the list of VAT exemptions.

Also note that the UK VAT rate is 20% outside exemptions, so there is room to drop it at least 5% on any goods they choose.

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