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Messages - palsch

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1846
He threatened to veto, but only over an element that wouldn't give enough power to do illegal shit without oversight.
It was the detention mandate (forcing suspected terrorists to be held in military custody without congressional approval to move them to civilian courts) he was primarily threatening the veto over. That mandate was changed to a presumption of military detention that can be waved by the president effectively at will, which is when he signed it.

Seeing as the rest of the law was largely business as usual (the GTMO stuff was a formal surrender of a fight long lost, the detention stuff a codification of what is currently being done) I personally thing that vetoing it would have been entirely symbolic and temporary (likely overridden, either way causing deep damage to the Democratic party going into the elections). Worse, it would have been him pushing away congress's first step to actually taking control over the military detention program.

Politically it may have been a good move though. Given the misreporting and sudden anger he may have scored some points there. It would have been fragrant hypocrisy given his support of the detention policy since at least February 2009, but might have played well with cable news.

1848
Firstly, look again at the actual legal powers of detention just to be clear on what can and can't be done.
Yeah, this law did something new : it clarify and make definitive the right to arrest and to detain indefinitely without trial or civil supervision, any civilian suspected of supporting terrorism. And that's why Obama must go down.
Not really. If it were to be used in that way it would be fragrantly unconstitutional and struck down. Expect far more restrained abuse, if there is any, similar to we have seen in the past. A congressional hand wave does not grant permission to ignore the constitution.

If you want to attack Obama on his civil liberties/executive power/war powers record, go ahead. I'll hand you the ammo. But let's make sure we are criticising the right things. I find it very hard to back people when they spend all their time beating on strawmen, and the willingness of people to take a strawman version of this bill rather than deal with the actual issues directly has been really off-putting.

Congress acting on this issue is a good thing. It makes the debate public and gives people a real chance to vote on it. No president is going to unilaterally give up these powers. Hell, I doubt even Ron Paul would. It would be an uphill battle against the institutions required to run the country (CIA, military, State Department, etc). It would have massive political costs while reducing your toolkit for dealing with problems down the line. In the end it might be the right thing to do but it would be untellably hard, weaken the presidents position inside and outside of the administration and cost more in blood and treasure down the line. In particular the problem is unlikely to be even reconsidered till the current detainees have been dealt with and no more are pouring in from active conflicts. Arguably Obama has been taking steps to make that day come, although few have been particularly happy with the exact direction of those steps.

We shouldn't want the president to have this power, but that means either hoping the courts rule against it (which they haven't and won't) or congress steps in and applies it's own limits.

The current political climate, within congress at least, is to keep their hands clean and away from these issues entirely. However, some political point scoring was available and so they had a go on the detention mandate and GTMO closure blocks. That meant they had to at least put their hands on the issue, however lightly. Their debate was utterly inconclusive, with no appetite for changing or even really defining the limits of the detention program.

But now it is a congressional issue. It's a valid reason to consider your votes and something congress-critters should be answering and talking about during their campaigns. Hopefully this means that a couple years down the line we might have something approaching sanity in detention policy. It means it's going to be brought up during the elections and Obama will be forced to answer to the worst aspects of his presidency so far.

While the bill was a bad one, for the reasons usually ignored (and I doubt people even noticed the sexiest part - the US may now actively engage in offensive cyberwarfare), it's secondary effects on detainee policy in the long view might be massively more positive than if the issue was never brought up in congress. I'd rather we had a congress that would have implemented sensible controls first, but then if we had the congress I prefer I doubt the USA would still be united. So there we go.

1849
Maybe two people will get this but I couldn't stop laughing.

Charon QC's drinking forcast.

1850
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: December 19, 2011, 10:22:51 pm »
Wait, is this a billboard for Newt or against him?
Yes.

1851
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: December 19, 2011, 09:42:21 pm »

1853
General Discussion / Re: ♪ The Great Music Thread ♫
« on: December 19, 2011, 06:26:06 pm »
Emi Jarvi just came up on a shuffled playlist.

I'd forgotten how stunning her voice is. The Imogen Heap cover on this page was the best version of that song I've heard.

1855
General Discussion / Re: Kim Jong Il, Dead As Of 12/17
« on: December 19, 2011, 05:31:25 pm »
Actually there isn't THAT much artillery. Sure they can kill thousands, but they only have what, a few hundred guns with enough range? Those can be shot using missiles once their position are known.
I can't find firm, recent numbers. But Global Security have some rough estimates.

Incidentally, this is where the lasers go. There do exist working anti-ballistic missile and artillery lasers, but as far as I'm aware they are primarily deployed in Israel.
And I remember the report from eight or so months ago due to the border incident then. Hawaii is in the red zone.
That was talking about theoretical missile range of the Taepodong-2. Except that they couldn't possibly mount the types of nuke they have developed, and the tests indicate the guidance systems just about let them choose which ocean it splashes down in.

1856
General Discussion / Re: Kim Jong Il, Dead As Of 12/17
« on: December 19, 2011, 05:06:48 pm »
Please. The North Korean nukes aren't scary in the least. They have a small handful at best, and they are likely to be unreliable and unmountable on their current missiles (which are themselves unreliable). They are a proliferation risk, but beyond that not a threat in and of themselves.

Their biological and chemical weapons on the other hand.

A biological attack on Japan is entirely possible. Not easy or likely to be well aimed, but possible.

The nightmare scenario is a single, all out attack using artillery on South Korea and long range missiles on Japan. They have enough firepower there to pretty much level Seoul and potentially drop biological agents into some of the most densely populated areas on the planet. And then they simply disappear within their own borders, forcing an invasion. Which they can respond to with chemical agents, land mines, heavy fortifications and an entire population to be used as human shields and cannon fodder.

MAD doesn't have to be global destruction to be terrifying. Or effective.

The good thing is I can't imagine any scenario where that actually comes to pass. The bad thing is I can't imagine North Korean internal politics either, so that doesn't mean much.

1857
Real world problems aren't that simple though.

Let's say we want to pass some legislation to deal with climate change. One of the proposed measures is an increased tax on petrol.

Who gets privileged status here?

Climatologists who can understand the dangers and reality of climate change?
Economists who can assess the effects of such a tax?
Drivers who will have to pay the tax?
Oil industry workers and executives who will see their industry effected?

I'd also add that, as a Masters of Physics holder, I have none of your confidence in degrees as an assessment of how qualified someone is to speak to the public aspects of even their area of training. Actually getting involved in public decision making requires a lot more specialised focus than general training, and actually gets in the way of gaining detailed experience within your field.

1859
If you want conservatives blasting someone just look at their descriptions of Newt.
Quote
Bonus bonus phrases (all from the last month): “disastrous nominee”; “lack of discipline”; “raging ego”; “over-the-top style”; “exaggerated regard for his own intellect”; “tone deafness”; “penchant for self-delusion”; “irresponsible” “crazed”; “deep in denial”; “reconstructing his past to make himself out to be the martyr”; “a charlatan”; “a skilled self-promoter”; “his ability to dissemble is unparalleled”; “history of milking the Washington lobbyist-legislator connection for great personal wealth”; “made a mint shaking down Washington”; “reckless character”; “self-indulgent, obtuse, dishonest”; “megalomania, recklessness, disorganization”; “disorganized egomaniac”; “antithesis of what the party needs”; “propensity to bend the facts to avoid responsibility for his actions”; “ability to deceive, to twist and to rearrange facts to fit his own grandiose vision of himself”; “scary”; “liberal.”
NB: That was just one of the ten commentators featured in the article (Jennifer Rubin).

1860
The twelve days of Christmas. From the perspective of the sphinx.

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