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Messages - palsch

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1966
General Discussion / Re: Energy futures
« on: October 06, 2011, 11:26:16 am »
Controlled fusion power, though, has always been that technology that will be viable "20 years from now" ever since the 1970's. The best they ever seem to accomplish, no matter the scale or technique used, is a net gain of zero output for a few minutes, so it makes me wonder if there isn't some limit of physics making it impossible to net anything from these types of controlled-fusion reactors.
To be clear, the 20 year thing (really 30 years) is an estimate on the time required to solve the engineering problems. I'd argue it's always been right, except the project to solve those problems and starting building the things never really started. Arguably ITER is that starting gun, although you can make an argument for the previous generation.

The whole thing is an engineering problem. The physics is entirely reasonable. It's creating an extreme environment that doesn't really compare well to anything we see elsewhere.

The sun is a fairly inefficient fusion generator compared to our energy needs. The rough fusion power at the core of the sun is 276.5 watts/m3. That is simply pathetic in terms of power generation. Human fusion devices have to work at higher temperatures to achieve realistic levels of fusion output. That's why, after their successful fusion runs, JET was referred to as the hottest place in the solar system at 10x the sun's core temperature.
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The fuel-pellet idea is new to be, I always wondered if they couldn't find a way to use the physics mechanism used to make nuclear weapons work into generating power. I'm guessing the lasers somehow circumvent the mass required for fusion chain reaction?
Nah, there is no chain reaction.

Chain reactions in this sense would be in a fission bomb or fission plant, where each splitting atom donates a neutron (or more) to other surrounding atoms to stimulate their own fission. In fusion this doesn't happen. Rather it's the high energy density (temperature/pressure) that causes the fusion. Each ion in the plasma has to have high enough energy to overcome the coulomb repulsion of another ion to effectively touch (or close enough for the strong nuclear force) and fuse together.

In a continuing reaction (as in a magnetic confinement plant) you need to keep some of the released energy in the system to keep the temperature up. ITER looks to do this by leaving the resulting alpha particles in the plasma (till they lose their energy) while only gathering energy from the neutrons.* However, ICF fusion is entirely dependent on individual bursts of energy so there is no need for each generation of fused nuclei to donate anything to the next generation, and no way for them to anyway.

The lasers in this case are acting as the fission section of a two stage hydrogen fusion bomb. They are simply there to heat the fusion fuel up and compress it into a dense plasma suitable for the fusion reaction to take place. You don't really need to use lasers for this either; the Z Machine Z-pinch works on a similar principle using an x-ray pulse generated by passing extremely high currents through an array of tungsten wires. I believe they can use that on slightly larger amounts of fuel at any one time, but firing rate is even lower and harder to improve.


*D-T fusion gives one He ion (or alpha particle) at 3.5 MeV and one high energy neutron at 14.1 MeV.

1967
General Discussion / Re: Energy futures
« on: October 05, 2011, 11:53:05 pm »
There are also a couple of interesting fusion projects in the US, IIRC. Including one big laser-fusion lab.
The National Ignition Facility.

This is a form of inertial confinement fusion (ICF). I've only had limited exposure to this; a couple of talks and some background. Most of my knowledge here is probably a little out of date, but the principles should be sound. Just imagine this was posted about three or four years ago.

ICF using laser ignition works on the same principle as a fusion bomb. The majority of the facilities that are used for such research actually do double duty as (legal) bomb test simulators.

You take a pellet of fusion fuel (normally very small) and wrap it in ablative material designed to exert pressure when it's ignited. These act as the ignition phase of a nuke, compressing the fuel. Unlike the plutonium stage of a fusion bomb, compression alone isn't enough and you normally need a further pulse of energy delivered directly into the fuel to turn it into a plasma. Then the compression works on the plasma to create very impressive fusion conditions.

Both the ignition of the ablative layers and the heating of the fuel are done by laser pulses. The ablative heating uses multiple beams focused at different points on the surface of the pellet. The forming of the plasma takes a single, high powered beam, focused into the core of the pellet. When I saw the designs they were using a small gold cone to deliver the energy directly into the fuel. This design varies a lot though, and I think that one was from GEKKO XII, the Japanese design. Most American and European designs use more brute force methods for forcing the fuel to ignite.

It's all very cool.

And now the problems.

Firstly, the laser needs to be big and powerful. Oddly this doesn't cause the obvious problem of getting a net energy output - that's surprisingly easy - but does mean that you are very limited to how many pulses you can fire. More power means more strain on your equipment. Firing rapidly with current technology is just going to blow something up. I remember that the woman giving the talk had one of the lasing crystals from their beamline with her because it was dead. After a handful of shots.

This is a problem for power generation. Let's say you are trying to heat your house by heating up some water. You have the choice between a litre of petrol or a kilo of TNT. Even if you can potentially get more energy out of the TNT, odds are you won't be as warm if you try to use it to heat your house.

In this case magnetic confinement is petrol (constantly burning at lower efficiency) while ICF is TNT. A MCF plant will be burning similar levels or probably even less fuel than a ICF plant, but the energy output is constant rather than in bursts. Even reaching the ignition levels required for net power output would only be a marginal first step towards an effective power plant.

I believe the rough firing rate required is on the order of 1-10 shots per second. Right now the goal at NIF is 700 shots in one year, and that's an end of life goal.

Note that they also have to deliver tiny fuel pellets to the exact point of convergence of the lasers for every shot. While you are running at less than one per day you can position them carefully. If you are trying to deliver (more than) one every second you are going to need a very accurate delivery system, especially when you are delivering each into the epicentre of a miniature nuclear explosion.

My guess is they are dependent on ITER to a degree. AFAIK ITER is the only large scale fast-neutron capture experiment on the books. Any D-T fusion device (which all ICF devices are) will require something like ITER's neutron capture blanket and the neutron safe materials integrated into the design. The current generation of ICF devices, and definitely the NIF, are dual (or duel) use devices, built with the military applications (bomb testing/simulation) in mind. They are happy to justify their peaceful existence by demonstrating potential paths to fusion, but that isn't their primary purpose. They aren't so much fusion energy test-beds as they are military facilities that have enough down time to run some fun experiments.

1968
General Discussion / Re: Energy futures
« on: October 05, 2011, 02:24:35 pm »
E-cat is already net positive, which is the point of the commercial 1mw plant. Assuming the whole thing isn't just a hoax. There is a lack of solid information, also it isn't (probably) fusion but it's shown to be non-chemical.
E-cat is pretty much a scam by any analysis. There is zero evidence for fusion and no mechanism that realistically enables fusion in the suggested conditions. And then there is no non-fusion mechanism that works either.

Hate to go to attacking authority, but it's well known that Rossi (the guy behind this) is a scam artist who has run a similar scheme in the past. Most of the information is in Italian, but there is this summary with plenty of links. It's an interesting story, involving 56,000 tonnes of toxic waste being dumped and 2 tonnes of gold in the back of a lorry. After spending some time in jail he fled to the US and discovered cold fusion... sorry, LENR.

Add to that that every single source that believes him presupposes a conspiracy among nuclear fusion scientists (trust me, I know a number of them and they are nowhere near that well organised) and I see absolutely no reason to believe it's anything other than a scam.
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Polywell is already viable and the two year estimate was if the scaling laws hold to net positive. So far they have, at least until everything went quiet.
Again, this is a weird area. They seem to avoid the mainstream fusion and plasma types so a lot of their ideas haven't been modelled, let alone reviewed or replicated. There are lots of other groups who use inertial electrostatic confinement (IEC) for studying plasma and generating neutrons through forced fusion, but I haven't seen any other claims that it is a viable path for self-sustained, positive energy output fusion, even using D-D or D-T fusion (the original Polywell goals were for p-B, which is pretty much impossible).

Even assuming they achieved D-T fusion (easiest to achieve but unlikely given Tritium requires production and is radioactive) with a net power output I doubt they would have a viable power generation facility. A lot of the research around ITER is into how to turn the energy output into electrical power. This is more complicated than you might think in that most of the energy from the D-T reaction is carried by a fast neutron. Capturing that energy is a hard problem. The blanket needs to be able to convert neutrons into energy and (optimally) lithium into tritium using those same neutrons. There is also the problem of 14MeV neutrons bombarding the other materials in the plant. Another whole branch of ITER research is into materials science to try to work out what steels and other materials can survive under such conditions.

If the plant were smaller than ITER I doubt that neutron capture would be a sensible approach, so you wouldn't be able to use D-T fusion. You would need to find a viable aneutronic path, namely p-B fusion. Except that p-B requires roughly 10x the temperature and Lawson criterions at some 45x and 500x (for the triple product) higher than DT. And that's assuming that all models of bremsstrahlung radiation are simply wrong and that those losses don't account for more than the possible fusion output by a significant factor. Arguably you could avoid those problems by using an unstable plasma (non-neutral, non-isotropic), but then achieving confinement and, well, fusion would be damned hard.

I'm inherently sceptical about all fusion claims, including those that suggest ITER could possibly be running on schedule. Their budget has been hacked at and I've seen some of the plasma confinement problems they are running against. Still, my money is on them as the best bet for a practical fusion reactor.

1969
General Discussion / Re: The Great Music Thread ♫
« on: May 06, 2011, 03:51:38 pm »
Radio rip of a song from the new Devin Townsend Project album.

And yes, those are the singers from Cynic and Gojira helping him out.

1972
DF Dwarf Mode Discussion / Re: Face Palm moments you had
« on: May 02, 2011, 01:12:47 pm »
Dwarves that goes stark raving mad are harmless. It's the berserk ones you've got to worry about. Stark raving mad dwarves just run around naked, babbling like idiots.
And not doing anything else.

You know, just to distinguish them from every other dwarf in a mature fortress.

1973
General Discussion / Re: Wanted: Good ("realistic") SciFi novel
« on: April 27, 2011, 10:14:23 pm »
Charles Stross has a couple. Glasshouse is easily the best. Hard to describe much without giving a lot away, but he builds a universe almost matching Bank's Culture and uses it to run a pocket experiment looking at our own. He also has the near future Halting State, with a sequel Rule 34 due out relatively soon. He has some free samplers here, including a short story collection and a complete (looooong) novel called Accelerando.

Richard Morgan is utterly brutal, but writes a fantastic noir style high concept future. The Kovacs novels (starting with Altered Carbon) are a great trilogy. The central technology is the cortical stack; a hardened implant that effectively stores your memories and self digitally, to be transferred between bodies, transmitted between stars, backed up and even cloned to a new stack. This puts a relatively low value on human flesh, resulting in some really nasty sex and violence, although the cost of a new body is still out of reach for the majority of people. He gets to play a lot with race, sex and social factors.

Doctorow does some really nice stories, especially his near future and social commentary. All of his are free online so definitely worth a peak. His two young adult books, Little Brother and For The Win are music to the ears of anyone who agrees with him socially (and technologically) while his first two full length novels, Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom and Standard Eastern Tribe cover a lot of concepts that are becoming more and more common today. I would strongly recommend downloading the audio version of With a Little Help; a short story collection read by various geeks. The Spider Robinson reading in particular is fantastic. It also has a reading by Mary Robinette Kowal who also read his After the Siege, a pretty worthwhile listen in itself.

And unrelated to the topic other than through Kowal, she also read Rude Mechanicals by Kage Baker, pretty far from realistic but a lot of fun. A semi-time-travel romp about two cyborgs in 1930's Hollywood, mostly based around the set of Max Reinhardt stunning production of A Midsummers Night's Dream. Damned good fun.

Scalzi's Old Man's War series (a trilogy plus one effectively) is good, in the same military-plus-social commentary way as The Forever War. The fourth books is pretty damned good considering it's Scalzi writing from the POV of a teenage girl. He also headed the Metatropolis project, originally an audiobook (mostly read by
BSG alumni
; the first story is a good two hours of Tigh reading to you) and now also published as as short story collection.

I have to repeat Reynolds (definitely Chasm City and Pushing Ice, although the new Terminal World is a nice take on Steampunk) and Banks, definitely. And for Banks, even if you skip his non-SF fiction you might want to look up Raw Spirit. It's him cruising around Scotland in a variety of cool vehicles sampling every Scotch he can get his hands on and getting paid for it. With occasional digressions about the war (it was written in 2003) and Drunken Urban Climbing.

If you need something more intellectually challenging then try Schild's Ladder by Greg Egan. Wiki describes it as involving 'non-trivial' mathematics and theoretical physics. I read it while taking graduate level quantum mechanics courses and didn't feel it was talking down or over-simplifying things. And the story remains engaging.

Neal Stevenson's Anathem tries to do something similar but (IMO) doesn't pull the science off quite right. This (some spoilers) explains how I feel about it. That said, the writing and story for the majority of the book is fantastic. It just loses the plot at some point and things literally unravel. Given that this includes what should be the climax of the novel, it kinda takes the wind out of it.

1974
General Discussion / Re: Roger Ebert Changes His Stance
« on: July 03, 2010, 12:29:48 am »
Just a warning, I'm absolutely trashed right now. I'm proofing as much as I can but can't ensure I won't go over the top a little.
Well, that's too bad. I reckon it does fit the bill, quite blatantly. And so does Tetris.
How? Please, someone explain, explicitly, why they think a particular game fits any definition of art. Just asserting that you think it is art without arguing in favour of it is nonsense.

For example, I don't think Portal fits the definition of art you offered, simply because Portal is not a work to be appreciated primarily for its beauty or emotional impact. You might disagree that this matters, but that is part of the definition you were using, and I'd argue it is somewhat central to that definition. If you remove that part then you are leaving an extremely broad definition of art, being any expression or application of human imagination regardless of intent or effect. Basically that would leave this post on the same level as any video game, and I don't think many people would accept that.
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Art is subjective. This doesn't just apply to video games, but to ALL ART.
Art's quality and value is subjective. I've never suggested otherwise. But that doesn't mean that I should have to accept a definition of art that is utterly worthless. Saying that art is whatever anyone considers art is, to me, utterly pointless and entirely destroys the concept. Rather I want a definition which, simply, makes sense.
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If the interaction of people other than the artist precludes something from being art, then that would mean a significant amount aleatory music and interactive theatre is not art.
I think you missed the point.

I've played in orchestras and string groups, and taken part in theatre sessions and plays. Those productions and performances easily qualify as artistic efforts, even if they were amateurish (I'm a poor actor and never was great on the violin). What I would question is whether the composer without an orchestra (or other means of putting his composition into sound) was truly producing art. What artistic meaning and value does an unplayed musical score have?

I've repeatedly stated that I think that the playing of a game can have artistic merit, in the same way that the acting of a script or the playing of a score can be an artistic performance. The nature of the art depends on the type of game and the player working their way through it. But the game itself is no more the performance than the script is the play. The play may contain artistic vision and lines, but I'd be hard pressed to call it art in the same way the performance of the work is.
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To pretend that you know better than everyone else what isn't art is little more than pompous snobbery.
Bloody hell, I'm a physicist. I don't hold any authority on art. The whole point of engaging in this topic was to try to force knee-jerking gamers to damn well think and actually engage in the debate that most had ignored in slamming a damned intelligent and good man who they happened to disagree with on one insignificant issue.

It's the people who jump on the bandwagon of slagging off Ebert without thinking or engaging with the subject at all who really piss me off.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
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I didn't say anything about "no value".
I don't really see any controversy here then.

I mean, all his statements suggest are that he values Shakespeare and other literary works more than video games, while acknowledging they do have value. I don't really see why this is a major problem with people. The statements seem to be in response to some of the more extreme comments he has been fielding since the original article (he tweets a lot; not having other forms of communication does that) and so are a shade hyperbolic, but not overly so. Frankly, it takes a deliberate misreading to suggest anything particularly controversial here.

1975
General Discussion / Re: There's a Hole in the Bottom of the Sea
« on: July 02, 2010, 01:10:50 pm »
So I read somewhere that all of the oil spilled thus far could be used by the United States in only four minutes.
Hard to get a particularly accurate measurement of how much has spilled, given the messy nature of measuring amounts of oil in water and the lies told, but lets take a high end figure for how much has leaked. Being lazy and just taking the high end from wiki gives 307 million gallons of crude spilled.

Current US oil consumption is ~21 million barrels per day. 1 barrel is 42 gallons, giving a US consumption of 882 million gallons per day or 36.75 million gallons per hour. At that rate it would take less than eight and a half hours to consume as much oil as has leaked.

So not quite four minutes, but then there are lots of very low numbers floating around for the size of the leak (some old, some lies, some estimates based on lower flow rates). I almost used a figure from the 1st of June instead of July myself. The error bars on this calculation are pretty big.

1976
General Discussion / Re: Roger Ebert Changes His Stance
« on: July 02, 2010, 12:50:22 pm »
Here, I'll help you out.
And I don't think the game fits that bill. Quoting myself because it's already written;
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Video games are, in this sense, as much a medium as art itself.  The primary purpose is for the player to express themselves (at least in most games that are fun to play). The game may have a tight plot that it follows, but a plot alone isn't art until it's story is told. That is the players job. The player takes the role of an author, actor or director (depending on the game), albeit one with tight constraints on how they explore the telling.
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Then again it is easy to shift your definition of art to one that can include video games. It's just I can't think of a consistent one that doesn't leave it horribly subjective and down to immediate experience, which suggests that whether or not a game is art depends on the player. I find that hugely unsatisfying and think it falls back to the situation of the art not lying in the game itself, but in the interaction between its content and the players actions.
He devalues games through the way he compares them to Shakespeare ("If I could save the works of Shakespeare by sacrificing all the video games in existence, I would do it without a moment's hesitation.") and Huckleberry Finn. If it's a category error, then it's Ebert's category error.
That isn't saying games have no value, it's a statement of relative value in his eyes. Given the choice between a world with computer games and a world with Shakespeare, he would take the latter. That doesn't mean that computer games have no value, it means that he values them less than the works of Shakespeare.

1977
General Discussion / Re: Roger Ebert Changes His Stance
« on: July 02, 2010, 12:19:38 pm »
That is the arguement Ebert made though. Compare good art in one medium to bad art in another. When the second doesn't compare favourably decide the entire medium isn't art.
Well, no. He didn't. His argument was that, as a medium, games don't qualify as art. My other post in this thread made a couple similar arguments which I've never actually seen addressed.

The problem was that people didn't actually address his arguments about that. I'll let him explain the more common response;
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If I didn't admire a game, I would be told I played the wrong one. Consider what happened when I responded to the urging of a reader and watched Kellee Santiago's TED talk. It would finally convince me, I was promised, of the art of video games. I watched it. But noooo. Readers told me I had viewed the wrong talk about the wrong games. Besides, arguing with a You Tube video was pointless if I had never played a game.
See now, this is the problem. If I make an argument that, say, science fiction books by definition can't contain elves - and that if they do they are fantasy - no amount of examples are going to convince me otherwise. You have to instead engage with the argument itself and make a case for how an elf can exist in a science fictional environment. You have to explore the definition of science fiction and show that a sensible definition can include elves. Then you go to the examples of books that fit such a definition.

Listing fantastic games without first exploring what art is and how a game may match that definition is pretty futile. I mean, I love Portal, but I don't really see how I could call it art. I don't have a workable definition of art which it fits.

I was considering this as a question of value rather than quality.
See, this is another category error. Hell, Ebert mentions a game he played and enjoyed and I don't see him saying they have no value. The guy reviews summer blockbusters next to art films without making value judgments based on their artistic merit.

1978
General Discussion / Re: Roger Ebert Changes His Stance
« on: July 02, 2010, 11:50:06 am »
Just wondering, what definition are people using for art that includes video games? Or are they using one at all?

And as for his attempt at devaluing games by putting them up against Shakespeare and Huckleberry Finn, I would like to quote Pope Guilty from Metafilter:
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Comic books have Sandman, Watchmen, and the like, and video games have Deus Ex, Portal, and so on. On the other side of things, your average novel is just as inane as any Superman comic, and your average film is no more deep nor insightful or literate than Unreal Tournament. Rigging the game so that the highest-minded and most expressive books and films are compared to the average video game or comic is just as dishonest and stupid as comparing the highest-minded video games and comics to the average novels and films.

Or to put it more succintly, let's switch things around and compare Deus Ex to any Danielle Steele novel. Look how stupid these books are!
This isn't a question of quality. Bad art is art nontheless. It's about the nature of the medium and the nature of art and whether (and how) the two overlap.

1979
General Discussion / Re: Free word processor?
« on: July 01, 2010, 09:43:32 pm »
If you are really having problems with an OO installation then just grab the [link=http://portableapps.com/apps/office/openoffice_portable]portable version[/link]. It's entirely self contained and the installation is basically just unpacking the files, so you shouldn't get any advertising spam.

If you want to be hardcore about it, use Notepad++ (or a Mac/Linux text editor of your choice) and learn LaTeX. It's a typesetting language rather than a word processor, so you focus on entering the content and then typeset it according to whatever rules you want. It's WYMIWYG (What You Mean Is What You Get) as opposed to WYSIWYG, which most word processors aren't anyway.

I strongly recommend LaTeX for anything involving equations, more than, say, 50 pages and/or multiple chapters, or which you want to remain portable between computers - you can move the content files around as tiny plaintext files, then compile them to perfectly consistant .pdf or .ps files (and yes, people do still use PostScript).

There are systems that offer a more WYSIWYG interface, like LEd or LyX, but I've never bothered. Texnic Center is a pretty complete LaTeX workstation for Windows, and all I've ever needed.

1980
General Discussion / Re: Roger Ebert Changes His Stance
« on: July 01, 2010, 08:51:42 pm »
I do find it quite funny reading peoples comments about Ebert who have only ever read those two posts. I'm willing to bet that pointing to, oh, many of his other recent writings would give a rather different view. Even if you don't share his views on a few things (and something tells me he doesn't expect people to agree with him on all that much - critics don't last long if they can't take disagreement) he is well worth reading. The only blogger I know with a similar depth of life experience to share is Frederik Pohl, the SF author who collaborated with, edited or otherwise worked with/knew every major SF author since the 30's.

And, to be fair, I think he has a point. Although, as always, it really depends on how you define art.

There are two main definitions you can use which suggest video games are rarely art, and even more rarely good art.

The first is that art is a reflection of the artist, an expression of their will, vision or whatever for the primary purpose of (basically) emotional communication. You can phrase it different ways, but that's the one I like best so I'm going with it. Communication that doesn't engage the emotions is rarely - if ever - considered art.

Video games are, in this sense, as much a medium as art itself.  The primary purpose is for the player to express themselves (at least in most games that are fun to play). The game may have a tight plot that it follows, but a plot alone isn't art until it's story is told. That is the players job. The player takes the role of an author, actor or director (depending on the game), albeit one with tight constraints on how they explore the telling.

In a sense this makes each playing of a game a collaborative artwork between player and game designers, but it suggests the game itself isn't art in the traditional sense.

The second, which Ebert suggests and then dismisses in his more recent post, is that art (or good art) is that which engages your empathy. Again, this can't usually be the primary goal of a game so long as the player is supposed to be the guiding force. A player exercising their will within a game world is putting their own emotions and views into the drivers seat, not engaging with those expressed by the artist. Again the player is in effect the artist, until they get railroaded out of actually playing and become a passive viewer, at which point it may as well be a film or book.

Of course, in both these cases it should be obvious that games can contain art. A cutscene has as much claim to being art as any short film. The graphics and other contents likewise. But the game as a whole... it's hard to say that it forms a coherent work of art once you factor in the player interactions. Even if those player interactions are with art and result in a new (transient) work of art in themselves.

The fact that most games contain bad art and most playthroughs result in even worse should be obvious.

Then again it is easy to shift your definition of art to one that can include video games. It's just I can't think of a consistent one that doesn't leave it horribly subjective and down to immediate experience, which suggests that whether or not a game is art depends on the player. I find that hugely unsatisfying and think it falls back to the situation of the art not lying in the game itself, but in the interaction between its content and the players actions.

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