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Messages - palsch

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271
General Discussion / Re: John Galt's Freedom Appreciation Megathread
« on: July 24, 2014, 07:54:42 am »
Sadly that's been a standard argument against climate change for a good decade at least. Skeptical Science article on it from 2008, but it's been around for a while before then. His version is garbled, but that's fairly standard for any politician talking about scientific or pseudo-scientific topics.


And speaking of academically incompetent senators, the plagerised final paper of Senator John Walsh.

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The standards of an actually prosecutable war crime are still fairly high. To continue the above quote;
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Article 8(2)(b)(iv) draws on the principles in Article 51(5)(b) of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the 1949 Geneva Conventions, but restricts the criminal prohibition to cases that are "clearly" excessive. The application of Article 8(2)(b)(iv) requires, inter alia, an assessment of:
(a) the anticipated civilian damage or injury;
(b) the anticipated military advantage;
(c) and whether (a) was "clearly excessive" in relation to (b).
Like I said, it's something that requires a detailed investigation and substantial resources to demonstrate comprehensively. Going from something that an individual or group morally condemns to an actual actionable war crime is a huge step, and calling something such with relatively poor information is usually a bad idea.

I also find it weird that the offensive tunnel issue is only coming up now. Did Hamas only figured them out last year or what?
Solid BBC article. They've been using offensive tunnels of one type or another since 2001 (then more of a sapper mine attempt). There were limited (likely expensive and complex) attempts to use offensive tunnels in other ways, as with the ambush that captured Gilad Shalit. The internal tunnel network was used in 2008-9 to help Hamas fighters ambush IDF forces. Then;
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After the failure of Hamas' rocket forces to inflict significant damage on Israeli towns in November 2012, they decided to build a large offensive-tunnel capability that would enable them to infiltrate assault teams into Israeli villages within a few kilometres of the border or place large bombs underneath these villages.
Remember that in 2007 Hamas took control of Gaza and the internal/smuggling tunnel network (again, highly recommended reading) and with that gained use of tunnels and the resources/expertise that came with them. Combine that with the Iron Dome and various other measures reducing the effectiveness of the rockets and you have perfect conditions for a switch to more tunnelling.

To the extent they might have used them to cross the border, that would be offensive, but since I'm pretty sure they didn't put their mosques on wheels and bring them across the border with them, you're getting distracted from your original argument. In such cases, Israelis can and should simply gun down said border-crossing invaders. Has nothing to do with what we were talking about.
It wasn't my argument. I was making the narrow point that saying that anti-tank missiles are defensive weapons is false both in principle and in practice in this conflict.

Why would bribing or coercing aid from citizens to provide intelligence about their government require that government's acceptance? Huh? It fundamentally requires the exact opposite... Spying implies lack of acceptance of the people being spied on by its very nature.
The problem is that any action by Israel within Gaza is seen by Hamas as a cause for continued hostilities. Their proposal for a ceasefire required that Israel have zero influence or presence within the strip. Given that Hamas themselves have near complete control over the tunnels, conducting completely covert surveillance of the tunnel network in Gaza through bribes or other means without somehow first compromising Hamas would be near impossible.

Yes, that's the part that needs to change in order for Israel to stop being war criminals  ::)
Simply stating "that's not what Israel does" is not really a meaningful or valid response to "This is what Israel should do differently"
I'm aware that's not how they roll right now.  That's the problem.
This is incredibly problematic.

No nation on earth accepts citizen's deaths from outside forces as a cost of the nation's existence. And I'd argue that any government that does accept such a thing is an inherently bad one, failing in it's primary role as a government. Now you could argue they should be safeguarding their citizens in another way, but to deliberately take a policy that will lead to citizens dying is almost always morally unacceptable.

Not to mention how completely unreasonable such a mindset change across the Israeli population is. Next we will implement a single payer healthcare system in the US and reunify the Koreas.

You don't need a bunker buster to take out a dirt and wood tunnel 25m underground. It's not a rebar-concrete stronghole. It's a crumbly hole. Yes it does require detection, but I'm just pointing out that you don't need to detect AND THEN INVADE. If you can detect, then you can disable remotely/by plane/etc. Just a minor tool in the toolkit of response options.
Check the BBC and academic articles I link above. They are concrete tunnels, relatively narrow (in the case of the offensive ones). You are still grossly underestimating both the sophistication of the tunnels and the difficulties in countering them.

It's NOT a "debate" though. It's just hard numbers that we all have access to. Hamas kills a couple of people, and Israel kills several hundred and destroys a hospital which will probably indirectly lead to hundreds more dying on an ongoing basis from lack of healthcare later on.  If that's not "clearly excessive" to you, you're simply delusional.
Again, making a determination of war crimes (or even just proportionality) based on casualty numbers is not how it works. It requires an actual investigation into the actions taken, the reason they were taken and the measures taken to minimise civilian impact. We don't have access to that information beyond the very limited IDF press releases and limited reports coming from Gaza.

I'm not saying that war crimes haven't been committed, but saying it's obvious that they have is simply wrong. It's the kind of crap that makes criticism of Israel look biased and naive.

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Anti tank missiles are defensive weapons by nature. As the name implies, they are used against tanks, which means if they're using them on you, you usually probably have a tank in the vicinity. Thus, if you don't want them to use anti-tank missiles, then what you should do is not put unnecessary tanks in their cities, maybe? This example is absurd.
Anti-tank missiles are missiles, and can be used as offensive weapons as easily as they can be used to defend against tanks. They have been used both in border crossings by Hamas militants and against infantry forces and positions. From that article;
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"The demonstrated use of anti-tank guided missiles against small IDF units on foot, rather than against armored vehicles, shows a clear intent to simply inflict casualties and a recognition of the (Israeli army's) superior armor defense," said Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Center in Doha told Reuters.
Scrolling through Lister's Twitter is like an encyclopaedia of which heavy weapons various Islamist groups have.

Searching through this article for "anti-tank" or "antitank" I find four instances, two of vehicles being hit and two of infantry positions.


The tunnel thing... you are basically calling for Israel to have a multi-mile buffer zone around their border under constant watch for tunnels, with response forces and various technologies constantly deployed. I can't imagine such a system that would prevent casualties, and any casualties would make such a scheme politically unacceptable within Israel. It's sitting back and waiting to get hit. I can't imagine the population agreeing to that.

A pro-active approach within Gaza (bribing and local strikes) could work, but is unlikely while Hamas are in control. It would require a local government both accepting of such police actions and not controlling and using the tunnel networks to their own ends.

Blowing up the tunnel away from the end points seems unlikely. Even if it could be detected reliably, the article I linked earlier today suggests some tunnels are up to 25m down. The only weapons I can think of sure to hit such targets are bunker busters such as the GBU-28, of which Israel has a very limited supply from the US (their sale has been blocked several times lately). Using them on uncertain targets would very likely be a waste of extremely expensive munitions.


IF those specific rocket sites are killing as many or more of your civilians as blowing up the school would kill, then you might be justified in bombing it, yes. Because in that case, doing so would be saving civilian lives overall. That's what people are referring to when they mention "proportional response," a concept that seems lost on Israel.
This is not a recognised or even practical definition of proportional response. It's an interesting application of utilitarian principles to warfare, but I've never seen such a thing seriously accepted.

The internationally recognised definition is not locked down but the definition here is good. It's not a matter of balancing future casualties, ever. It's a matter of making sure a response achieves a military goal while inflicting a minimum of harm on civilians. Quoting the ICC official;
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A crime occurs if there is an intentional attack directed against civilians (principle of distinction) (Article 8(2)(b)(i)) or an attack is launched on a military objective in the knowledge that the incidental civilian injuries would be clearly excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage (principle of proportionality) (Article 8(2)(b)(iv)).
What you should be arguing is the latter, that the military advantage is small compared to the civilian injury caused. Then it's a debate over Israel's attempts to minimise such harms and whether those reach the required level.

I'd also note that a lot of this would depend whether attack decisions are being made on a strategic or tactical level. A response to immediate action will often have different standards to a pre-planned and authorised attack. Making an air strike on a civilian target for strategic purposes is (to my eyes) always going to be more questionable than a tactical response to incoming fire from a civilian building. Making such determinations is almost certainly impossible during ongoing operations and without serious resources and access to the area and forces in question.

274
Meant to post this earlier;

A lengthy academic article about the tunnels in Gaza. It mostly focuses on the smuggling tunnels, Hamas's control and what it has meant for the area economically and socially. You could do worse as a primer for post-handover Gaza.

275
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: July 23, 2014, 04:05:11 pm »
Urg.
Quote
Whitehall sources say information has emerged that MH17 crash evidence was deliberately tampered with, as the plane's black boxes arrive in the UK.

The sources said this included moving bodies and scattering the parts of other aircraft among the wreckage of the downed Malaysia Airlines plane.
URG.

276
IDF video on the hospital attack. Starts with extended phone calls suggesting the hospital is completely evacuated of medical teams and patients. Then shows the bombing with apparent secondary explosions (claimed to be stashed rockets and other weapons) as well as an apparent tunnel entrance near the grounds.

Seems to be an unofficial translation of the IDF video.

277
English article about the Belgian incident.
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The Turkish text reads: “Dogs are allowed in this establishment but Jews are not under any circumstances.” The French text replaces “Jews” with “Zionists.”
...
“LBCA will file in the coming hours a criminal complaint with the Liege prosecutor over the actions of those responsible for this violation of the July 30 law against racism and xenophobia of 1981,” LBCA said in a statement.

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http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-4548924,00.html
Shooting from inside El-Waffa hospital and a phone call to that hospital to assure there are no patients nor civilians inside. the upsetting thing is that international elements have went inside to try and prevent IDF from shooting at this hospital (and later left), essentially and defacto serving as living meat shields for a terror organization. those are probably either journalists that we are supposed to think are objective or UNRWA staff that get funded to serve as channel for hamas.

They are volunteer human shields. One of them seems to be Joe Catron who has lived in Gaza for years and seems to have been central to some of the BDS efforts in recent years as well as the ISM. He has appeared on some western media as an independent journalist, but only once or twice IIRC.

279
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: July 23, 2014, 10:34:49 am »
Got to go back to pre-civil war Congress for the good stuff.
Quote
On February 5, 1858, Keitt started a massive brawl on the House floor during a tense late-night debate. Keitt, offended by Pennsylvania Congressman (and later Speaker of the House) Galusha A. Grow having stepped over to his side of the House chamber, dismissively demanded that Grow sit down, calling him a "black Republican puppy". Grow responded by telling Keitt that "No negro-driver shall crack his whip over me." Keitt became enraged and went for Grow's throat, shouting that he would "choke [him] for that". A large brawl involving approximately 50 representatives erupted on the House floor, ending only when a missed punch from Rep. Cadwallader Washburn of Wisconsin upended the hairpiece of Rep. William Barksdale of Mississippi. The embarrassed Barksdale accidentally replaced the wig backwards, causing both sides to erupt in spontaneous laughter.
That was after Keitt pulled a pistol so that one of his allies could beat an opposing congressman with a gold tipped cane, an approach he had advised over duelling because duelling was for equals... The beating was for attacking slavery in crude language.

280
General Discussion / Re: Sheb's European Politics Megathread
« on: July 23, 2014, 05:48:54 am »
In other democratic news, RT has got into trouble with the British media watchdog agency Ofcom, which has started an inquiry about the channel not being objective and impartial enough. It may (and probably will) result in RT being officially banned from the airwaves in the United Kingdom.
It's far more likely they will just be fined. In 2013 they were hit for bias over broadcasts relating the Syrian conflict. You can read the complete report here (starts page 6, goes on for a while). It boils down to them showing a propaganda video from Rossiya 24 about how horrific the Syrian opposition is and then trying (unsuccessfully) to argue it didn't need to be unbiased.

British journalism tends towards the confrontational and aggressive. Interviewers are expected to challenge the statements of the interviewees and bring forwards opposition views, even when those views are objectionable or marginal. Every report is expected to contain some due representation of opposing arguments or at least representation and comment from other policy views. That includes documentary or commentary pieces in nearly all cases; hell, most effective persuasive documentaries start with the opposition position and then deconstruct it throughout the program. RT seemed to believe this doesn't apply to them. Note that despite this not being their first offence they were only called to a meeting and didn't immediately face any sanction.

The only way I can think of them completely losing their license would be if it went the Press TV route. They lost their license because, despite their license being for operations in the UK, their editorial decisions were made directly from Tehran. Even their ignoring a previous fine wasn't enough for them to be removed.

281
Under barrel shotgun for the mauler sounds dumb until you realise you can have slugs in the main clip and buckshot in the ub
Unlikely. The Auraxium weapons come with specific attachments unchangeable. Unless SOE wants it to have that it won't. Not seen a definitely list yet but I doubt they make the archetypal special reward shotguns slug only.

I hope it comes with extended mags, though... otherwise it probably isn't going to be that great. I'll use it for the lulz, but I'd be even happier if it was a legitimate weapon.

From dev comments on reddit, looks like it's a tradeoff against two extra rounds in the mag for the other factions. So maybe a 8 round + 1/2 UB, with the UB having higher damage (IIRC existing UBSGs can one shot with partial headshots), while other factions get the 10 round extended mag setup?

282
Yes, I'm aware it will take some time to develop the technology better.  So what?
No. It will take some time to get the technology (which Israel has been developing for two years according to the articles I'm reading) in anything like a workable state for border efforts.

Seriously, you are making some wild claims about the technology and it's applicability without any sources or demonstrating any understanding of the physical, practical or logistical limitations such a system will face. You are speculating and treating it as hard and fast fact while being very dismissive of anyone who doesn't (not to mention the experts developing such systems in the US). The reason I linked the DHS article in the first place was to show they you were flat out wrong about the technology being easy or widely available.

283
Welp.
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Brawler Shotgun underbarrel shotgun attachment confirmed for greatness.
Need to rush those remaining shotgun Auraxiums...

Also a revamp of the spawn system, reducing respawn times and load screens. Looks like a 'quick' respawn option with only 7 seconds downtime, but no changing class or spawn point.

284
IDF testing new tunnel detection system. It sounds like a sophisticated ground penetrating radar system. These systems tend to be short ranged and relatively unreliable unless the soil is fairly uniform.

And GavJ, an article about why detecting tunnels is hard, based on the American DHS's efforts.
Quote
You might think that the technology used to find oil and mineral deposits for decades could solve the problem. After all, geologists can find salt domes on top of oil deposits, or seams of coal.

Senior program adviser David Masters oversees the effort at DHS, and he said that in some ways the miner’s tools have proved almost useless in the search for tunnels.

“The miner is looking for gold, the oilman’s looking for oil, and the rescuer is looking for trapped miners,” Masters said. “So what they end up doing is excluding everything else except the specific thing they are interested in. And that particular thing does not have anything to do with a tunnel.”
They go on to note that you have to have a very good model of the local geology. My guess is that part of the new Israeli system will be building up such a model and then watching for any changes that suggest new tunnelling. Which obviously doesn't do that much for existing tunnels.

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