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Messages - hector13

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1441
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 12:24:46 pm »
Toony wants to kill Hector and is essentially thunderdoming him, Hector doesn't want to kill Toony.  Hmm..

One other weird thing— didn't the start and end of day say Juice had disappeared somewhere — how was he still able to night act?

Fluffe,  who murdered Toaster?

False. I said why I would prefer doing my plan over killing Toony; I’m fine with Toony being eliminated, I just think solving the game is a much better goal than possibly not even taking out a full scum team.

1442
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 11:56:41 am »
What do you think of my plan Fluffe?

1443
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 11:52:42 am »
I like my plan better, though I think I did my maths wrong overnight.

We take out Max or Jim, confirming the alignment of the other.

This leaves 9 players, Egan is town, Toony is scum, NQT is town (probably), we know the alignment of Max/Jim after the flip. 3 investigative roles (Toony, Egan, Cat) give us up to 3 more alignments, meaning up to 7 of those 9 are confirmed one way or the other, plus or minus depending on kills. Assuming (in the unlikely event) that scum don’t kill anybody confirmed and no other kills happen, that’s the game solved.

1444
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 11:31:35 am »
Instead of talking past each other, talk about The Plan.

1445
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: April 24, 2023, 11:22:18 am »
I was going to post that.

BBC article on the matter.

1446
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 02:19:16 am »
My motivation and ability to read the game is clearly not a property of my person :p

Neither of the things I referred to were on the merits of my plan. Your comments were probably not that as hominem but it’s late so I’m allowed to get that wrong.

1447
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 02:00:24 am »
To be clear: Jim was making ad hominem attacks (“it doesn’t make sense you’d prefer this over eliminating scum!Toony”) and Max said town would lose even if I think they’re scum.

Which I guess is also ad hominem.

I’m going to bed. Maybe NQT can tell us what he thinks.

1448
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 01:38:19 am »
Like… I want to win the game. Killing Toony gets us closer to that, but doesn’t lead us to the next step.

He’s either not Lenglon’s teammate, so we still have two mafiakills in the night game, or he is her buddy and there’d be one team that can focus solely on murdering town if we take him out.

PPE:
Flipping one of you will either give us the other scum team - and thus the game
Again, you can only think this if you think Toony is Lenglon's partner. Otherwise, Lenglon's partner would be in the wind.

I know, that’s why I explore the idea of you being town in the rest of it, and why you being town is the bigger part: if you’re scum, ggwp.

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or another confirmed town for D3 to grow our burgeoning town core.
This is at least sound, but doesn't seem worth it to me when there are up to three scum players unknown (if Toony is indeed framed) and certainly two. Also I'll probably just get killed.

If there are three scum left, at worst, if nobody dies they’ll be within the five unconfirmed players. 60% chance if we do it randomly.

Decent odds that.

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The two investigative roles also give us information on two more players, so confirming the alignments of half the town or more.
It's a lot to assume they will survive the night, not be blocked or redirected, and there isn't a framer.

It’s also a lot to assume any or all of that.

Egan has at least claimed to be unbussable/unredirectable.

Framers only work if they target someone being inspected. Regardless we have no evidence there’s one in the game beyond the protestations of the person inspected as scum.

You’ve claimed a protect, why not use it on Egan? NQT and Toony appear to have tracks. Toony wants to find the other team as much as we do. They can’t all get killed.

There are other unclaimed actions we don’t know about too. It’s a lot to assume they won’t be able to help in the night, though as I argued above, they also might not.

I think we’ve had action claims from me, you, Jim, Toony, NQT, Egan, Cat, and juicebox. Nobody has reported molestation.

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I notice you’re not attacking the merits of the idea, rather making ad hominem arguements or saying town would lose even if you’re scum.
If you mean me, I didn't make any ad hominem argument. I didn't go deeply into the merits of the idea, but now I did, okay?

You didn’t make ad hominem attacks, that were Jim re:my motivations.

No plan is going to be perfect, but the risks in this one are outweighed by the benefits:

Town either wins when you or Jim flip, or most of if not all the way to winning D3.

1449
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 12:57:46 am »
If we kill Toony, we still have to find the other two scum before they can be dealt with, regardless of which team they’re on. That’s short-sighted.

If Toony isn’t on Lenglon’s team it doesn’t change anything for us N2, there are still two scum teams with their mafiakills in the game. If we keep Toony alive it forces the other team, whether 1 or 2 members of them, to choose between him or the town. He also becomes manageable in the night in a power heavy game. Tony can’t count on the other team to not go after him, and they can’t discount Toony may have figured out who they are. He’s not a bad player is Oor Toony.

Flipping one of you will either give us the other scum team - and thus the game - or another confirmed town for D3 to grow our burgeoning town core. The two investigative roles also give us information on two more players, so confirming the alignments of half the town or more.

The long game.

I notice you’re not attacking the merits of the idea, rather making ad hominem arguements or saying town would lose even if you’re scum.

1450
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 12:08:09 am »
Nah bro your thought processes are a bit alien to me for whatever reason to the point I think you’re a machine, and think I might be somewhat autistic too so other people’s motivations are… tricky, but all that’s not important right now.

My idea is brilliant.

I also feel like I’m coming across a bit like FoU when he has his ideas, which is… probably a bad thing, but if this is how he feels when he has then I can understand why he is so goddamn stubborn.

1451
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 24, 2023, 12:00:29 am »
In fact IN FACT! Why don’t we actually do it?

*taps his temple* I’m a fucking genius.

We flip one of Max and Jim today. If they’re scum the game is over, ggs.

If they’re town, we have 2 confirmed town in Egan and the survivng Max/Jim that the scum can’t go after because of the sort of Prisoner’s Dilemma they both face in that they don’t know if the other team is going to work with them to get rid of the town so they have to go after each other first.

NQT has been inspected as town, though admittedly by probably scum, but we still also have the 2 investigative roles for N2 as well, so we could have as many as 5 confirmed town players tomorrow if Max or Jim flip town, so even if nobody dies that’s half the goddamn town cleared, and even better than that if someone does!

I realize it’s also midnight and I am very tired, but this is workable.

1452
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 23, 2023, 11:41:01 pm »
Jesus H, Max, I have rarely seen you make a post with so much wrong in it.

In reverse order:

Jack’s first post of the game was basically “I’m not going to play this game”, which is entirely pointless, and frankly ticked me off. I tried to get him to play the game, even asked him who I should vote for at one point, all for naught. The one thing that really stood out for me was he acknowledged that he shouldn’t rely on his playing shite to be townread. If a player is aware of their meta to that degree, does that meta cease to work as a means to read them? Abso-bloody-lutely.

I never once said Tric was scum on D1. I had him in my scum reads at one point (and even said he probably shouldn’t be in them at the time!) solely because you were brown-nosing Jim the entire day, and I had huge issue with Jim’s reliance on meta to read Tric, then getting upset with FoU for disagreeing with that meta read, then meta-reading FoU as scum to justify it.

Your petty pride is not and was not my problem. See above on my thoughts regarding EJ’s panicking meta, which we discussed at the time.

As above again, your petty pride is not my problem. I did not challenge you to a game of chicken, those were your words, not mine, and I never acknowledged that game once. What I acknowledged was your strong read on EJ being completely at odds with whatever nonsense you were pulling at the time: as you have made abundantly clear, that game of chicken was between you and your pride, it had nothing to do with me. I said the 42 minute thing because, as we both know and as actually happened, things could very easily change over the course of that time. Consequently, whatever game of chicken you were playing I wasn’t even expecting to matter before that 42 minutes was up.

Further to that, we now know thanks to Lenglon via KW and FoU/Egan, that the scum teams are probably aware that there’s another scum team they need to deal with, so scum!you may in a more traditional game have had no reason to move your vote from a strong townread, but it doesn’t really move you toward your ultimate goal of winning the game in this one. You’d need to hit scum just as much as town do to win this one bud.

I will acknowledge that calling you a coward was emotional,  but that was because I was pissed off that somehow I was getting pushed toward being eliminated, and was expecting you with your balls of steel to not falter in your own personal game of chicken.

I wasn’t casting aspersions because I was genuinely curious what was up there… but now I’m not so sure.

TL;dr

EJ is aware of their meta, so meta reads don’t work on them now.

I said Tric was scum maybe all of one time D1, as an associative read of Max and Jim who I felt were scum.

Max challenged himself to a game of chicken with himself and lost.

Max claiming scum!Max wouldn’t be bothered about eliminating a strong townread doesn’t work in a game with two scum teams because he would need to eliminate the opposing team as much as town.

Huh, maybe I can do brevity after all…

So yeah, I’ll get pissed off for no reason to and suggest maybe another idea to explore is Max and Jim fakeclaiming as scum. They’ve already found the other team, might as well get their biggest town problem out of the way by taking out the biggest voting bloc.

1453
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 23, 2023, 10:45:38 pm »
T’be fair I was waiting for Toony to post as I suspected he would have me as his top scumread.
What gave you that impression.

Mostly the “oh there’s not enough time to lay out my case” nonsense at the end of D1. I suspect you were just chancing your arm on starting a wagon on someone else, and also allowing you a starting point for D2 if it didn’t end in an elimination.

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I propose a ballsy move, that we keep Toony alive today so he has to get killed in the night by the opposing team. That way we actually spend the day not being wholly distracted by inspect results, and finding the scum still left during the day, while they murder each other by night.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

I did say it was ballsy, not necessarily clever. Frankly, even if both teams chicken out of finding the other team in the night, I represent an even greater threat than the Mason’s with how many votes I have. I’m cool with that.

1454
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 23, 2023, 10:16:51 pm »
Eurgh why do you guys leave it so late to post? It’s almost like you have lives and loves outside of mafia or something.



T’be fair I was waiting for Toony to post as I suspected he would have me as his top scumread.

I’ve been thinking, mostly about me. Narcissus personified eh? Anyway, If Toony’s team were about to be eliminated it wouldn’t matter how many votes I had, they’re not going to win. Consequently, I don’t think Lenglon and Toony were partners, because Toony is interested in taking me out of the game.

Further to that point, the scum team that opposes Toony wants him taken out during the day, so they can save their mafiakills for the town without having to put effort into manipulating the town to murder each other.

I propose a ballsy move, that we keep Toony alive today so he has to get killed in the night by the opposing team. That way we actually spend the day not being wholly distracted by inspect results, and finding the scum still left during the day, while they murder each other by night.

Toony’s also a clever sausage, and he knows he has to find the other team, so, me aside in that, maybe his analysis actually has some truth to it?

Something to consider anyway, there’s not much other discussion going on, presumably because of inspect results and it’s the weekend.



Max what was up with you at day end D1? You don’t get worked up, and you don’t bottle out of silly games like Chicken. What were you doing?

1455
Mafia / Re: BYOR 16: Day 2: Bloodbath [10 / 15]
« on: April 23, 2023, 01:07:35 am »
Right. This post brought to you by horrible tiredness and flights of fancy.

Let’s see if I can sort this mess out after being screamed at by a 2.5ft creature for a few hours.

So. We have 10 players.

1 very likely town in Egan based on FoU’s flip.
2 claimed town Masons in Max and Jim.
1 scum outed in Toony by 2 investigations, one of which was Egan.
1 investigator in Cat, the other one to find scum!Toony
1 town confirmed by probably scum!Toony in NQT.

That’s 6, and the other players are unconfirmed right now.

Chances are we have 3 scum remaining in all of that, so assuming all the above is correct, 2 scum in me, Fluffe, juicebox, and KW.

From my perspective that’s a 67% chance to hit scum if we do this at random, which is pretty good odds… I think it would be in the order of juicebox, Fluffe, KW

So let’s think about this. If Toony is Lenglon’s partner, I think we’d basically be golden because there’s one team left and there wouldn’t be a whole lot they could do, at least during the day with me in the game.

However, if Toony is not Lenglon’s partner, that means there are still two teams with two different kills out there, and I think Egan’s right that they’ll probably be gunning for each other, because they can’t both win.

Given we know about Toony, we can presumably deal with them in the night. Does Jim still have a superkill? That would come in handy if Toony has some sort of in-built protection in the night. Otherwise hopefully someone has a block.

I think we’d have to deal with juicebox during the day because they disappear during the night. Fluffe seems to be panicking a bit, not sure if that means they’re Toony’s partner or Lenglon’s though. Or, indeed, juicebox’s. That’s why I think they’re more likely scum than KW.

This seems a bit too easy. Like it could be Max and Jim being very ballsy, but… Jim seems to be still putting thought into the game.

In addendum to that, I also realize I am a prime choice for pocketing given my role. A Max/Jim team would understand that, though given I was the next wagon they could also have just got me eliminated today instead, even if I control so many votes.

Man I should probably just sleep on this. If Max and Jim are scum it all falls apart anyway, but that’s feeling less and less likely as it goes on.

There’s probably some mistakes in here but it’s broadly what’s on my mind right now. We’ll see how I feel after hopefully more sleep than I got last night…

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