Bay 12 Games Forum

hector: Your reasoning for NQT's claim of the Spin kill being a fake-claim is (at least in part) that it's an easy fake-claim since no one would want to counter-claim him, right? But given that most of the people I've seen responding to your posts appear to disagree with that idea, how does it make sense that no-one has counter-claimed if someone else did the kill? Superdorf has claimed not to have done it, Persus would have counterclaimed based on his responses and Tric already took an action during the day.

*sigh*

This is a fair point. I am assuming thus that you didn’t perform the kill? Kit made a full claim so he didn’t do it, I didn’t do it (devil’s advocating my way through my thought processes before) which leaves RGU.

Evidently Persus prefers discussing why his theory is best theory rather than telling me how and why I’m wrong in this particular instance.

Color me convinced. This does not mean NQT is town, but I guess he’s not scum.

Unvote

Quote from: hector13 on May 26, 2019, 02:18:48 pm

Persusyou serious bro? Tell me how my counterclaim proves NQT didn’t do it. If anyone else counterclaimed, would that prove NQT didn’t do it? What would it tell you if a counterclaim was made?

You haven't counterclaimed shit. If anyone else counterclaimed, it would be a serious accusation that would have to be evaluated by looking at when both parties were active D1, their opinions on the whole Tric/Spin thing, and a general sense of scumminess. If I daykilled a mafia player and someone else claimed that in thread, you'd bet I'd be counterclaiming. The lack of one and the lack of daykills on the dead players strongly indicates to me that NQT is telling the truth. A daykill is something I wouldn't fake claim as scum unless I was 100% sure the real daykiller couldn't contradict me, or if I had to take some flack for a teammate.

How do you know I’m not taking umbridge at this because I performed a daykill on MaxSpin?

How would you be sure if you had killed MaxSpin that NQT hadn’t tried, too? You can’t.

How would analyzing when they were active tell you anything, Shakerag still has to process the actions. Regardless, NQT didn’t claim until D2, at which point it becomes impossible to tell whether or not someone was active enough on the forums to send “kill MaxSpin” in a PM, even if they weren’t posting in the thread. Even then, more than one person can kill the same person, so how would you know either party was lying?

Thus, counterclaiming means nothing. Again, NQT can’t be shown to not have done it, so it follows the lack of a counterclaim means nothing because the real daykiller might have more shots and can’t say that NQT was fakeclaiming.

Quote from: hector13 on May 26, 2019, 02:18:48 pm

Ignore the claiming business for a moment; has NQT done anything to show he’s town to you?

I find NQT hard to read in general, but I haven't seen anything from him to indicate he's scum. He's missed a few things, but that's hardly scum indicative, and he generally takes more interest in the mechanical aspects of the game to do scumhunting than not.

Why does it seem unlikely that someone with an interest in the mechanical aspect would fakeclaim?

Quote from: hector13 on May 26, 2019, 02:18:48 pm

What whole business with Kit?

You claimed Kit had made a scumslip at the begining of D2. When you realized it wasn't getting any traction you dropped it.

Logically that means scum!me’s next target for an easy lynch is NQT lol

Not town!me poking at him to figure out the alignment of the most inactive player on D1. Notably you were prodding at me to stop there, too. Why is me trying to figure out alignment such a problem for you?

Quote from: hector13 on May 26, 2019, 02:18:48 pm

I have never once said killing MaxSpin was a bad idea. I said I believe NQT is fakeclaiming, because it’s super easy towncred, as evidenced by nobody giving a second thought about it until now. As evidenced by you not thinking he could be fakeclaiming, and that he isn’t scum as a result.

Consider that from the other side: what would I gain as scum from throwing any sort of shade on an apparently confirmed mafiakiller?

You'd be able to start momentum for a lynch against a target that wasn't your scumbuddy, get rid of a claimed daykiller, and leave people who keep being suspicious for later.

Right. Momentum that you stopped the first time I brought it up. Sensible scum!me backs off and then returns to it shortly thereafter, sure.

So you think there are at least two scum left?

NQT claimed a useless daykill. Try again. Maybe because he was buddies with you? Without checking, I think Lover is the only one that would result in a 2-for-1 on death, and it would have to be you for NQT to kill himself.

Which other players do you think are suspicious? Do you think any of them are my partner?

Quote from: hector13 on May 26, 2019, 02:18:48 pm

Have you ever seen a mafia bus another member of the mafia? How is claiming a daykill performed on mafia any different?

I've seen Mafia bus each other, and participated in it. Fakeclaiming is different because it doesn't involve claiming something that's extremely easy to disprove

Okay. How is a kill fakeclaim easy to disprove?

How is fakeclaiming a kill on scum different in this instance? Do you not consider this to be an edge case kinda thing given it would be NQT fakeclaiming a kill on a scumbuddy that was mechanically shown to be guilty? If not, why?

NQT

Hector13, your case is absurd and poorly researched. On D1 I speculated that Max (who had a daykill) performed the kill on Tea. I didn't say anything about who killed Max then. I've explained any caginess I might have had D1 if you read my last few post. To recap: I decided not to claim on D1 so that I wouldn't be a target n1. You might say that this is selfish, but give Tric's role powers are all gone it did in fact turn out to be the right move. This is a high-powered game and I wanted to use a trick up my sleeve.

Also I didn't claim D1 that I had really good info... just that it wouldn't have been town-sided to reveal (the Persus stuff etc) straight away.

Further, your rationale for players not counter-claiming me (if I had been lying) directly contradicts your attack for me not claiming. If it was unsafe to counterclaim a kill in your eyes, then why was it safe to claim a kill?

Who has the best motive for doubting a confirmed mafiakiller actually killed the mafia? The mafia.

You were cagey on D1 because you misread your PM? This makes little sense.

You were cagey on D1 because you wanted to use your powers in the night? I’ll deal with that later in the post.

Your votes on D1 were, in order, a player with a guilty result, a player who voted the player who gave the guilty result, and a pressure vote on an inactive player, where your vote rested for the remainder of the day. How is an inactive player more likely to be scum than a player who was voting against a claimed guaranteed sane inspect?

You’re not doing well reading things this game, it seems. I said it was foolish to claim a re-usable kill. You claimed a 1-shot, which is now useless. Who wants to stay alive and not draw the attention of malicious parties away from a guaranteed sane inspect? Scum.

What was the trick up your sleeve? You’ve claimed a now useless kill as a power and you’re a BUDDY with Persus. Did it prove more useful than a guaranteed sane inspect that you trusted enough to blow through a 1-shot on D1?

How are you a confirmed mafiakiller? Because you said so? Well I’m town. Oh noes, you’re voting confirmed town!

RGU

Hector13: So if NQT didn't do the kill, then why hasn't the real daykiller claimed by now? And by that logic then nobody else could have done the kill since no one claimed it during Day 1. You say it's easily disproven and that multiple players could have targeted him, but so far no one has counterclaimed it. While you're right that not claiming the kill if it was a single use is suspicious, NQT did push towards a Maximum Spin lynch, so it makes sense that he would daykill him.

I think I didn’t explain myself very well. The real daykiller is either town with a reusable kill, or they’re third-party and don’t want to reveal they have a kill. Either way, it is sensible for them to keep that information a secret from scum. And the town in the case of the latter.

I said it was difficult to disprove whether any one player performed a kill (outside of tracking/watching abilities like Kit’s Night Watchman role, for example) which is why even if someone did counterclaim the MaxSpin kill, NQT could say they targeted him with a kill too.

It would make sense for NQT to kill MaxSpin, but that would mean he was fully trusting of Tric’s claim too because he claims to have used a 1-shot kill on D1 as a consequence.  If he was fully trusting of Tric’s claim - a guaranteed sane alignment inspect - why would he not try to protect that incredibly powerful role?

He claims it was so he could use his powers at night, but, taken from a town perspective on D1, we don’t know how many scum there are, and being able to eliminate even one player from a lynching is useful to town because it reduces the chances of a mislynch. Since he hasn’t claimed anything so far this day, beyond misreading his PM and that he’s linked to Persus, I very much doubt whatever he did during the night was as useful as a guaranteed sane inspect that could eliminate players from our lynch pool, or eliminate scum from the game.

In short, he claims to have trusted Tric’s claim of a guaranteed sane alignment inspect enough to use a 1-shot kill on D1, but is unwilling to draw attention away from Tric by claiming said kill on D1 because he wanted to use his own powers in the night, which are probably not as powerful as a guaranteed sane alignment inspect, since the only thing he has claimed so far today is that he can’t read his role PM.

Consequently, I believe his kill claim to be a fake. It is a good fakeclaim because it is difficult to disprove, and he has shown he is willing to use his apparently “confirmed” kill of a mafia player as evidence he can’t be scum.

Any questions, anyone? I think the case makes sense and I hope I’ve expressed it well, at least in the preceding two paragraphs, but I’m the one making it, so... yeah. Questions?

Note: if anyone can prove NQT made the kill, my case doesn’t make sense and NQT can’t be scum, unless there’s more than one team, which I think is unlikely. He could feasibly be third party in that case, but Nirur flipped SK, and I’m not sure quite how unbalanced Shakerag wold be inclined to make the game...

pfp

So... I’m feeling RGU and Superdorf are probably town, though I still have misgivings.

Still waiting on a Superdorf to tell me why I’m scum though.

Reconsidering NQT’s daykill claim as clearing, because it is unconfirmed, and they were very cagey yesterday (lots of “yeah I have information for town, better keep me alive so I can tell you about it” without much else) and did actually say they thought IcyTea killed MaxSpin prior to claiming that it was in fact himself. Doesn’t make much sense to wait to claim if it’s a one-shot. Would probably make more sense to claim the kill on D1 and not say it was one-shot to draw fire from Tric.

I need to look a bit deeper into DA’s stuff, since he’s pretty much here through PoE - my basis for scumhunting st this point being focusing on the wagon that formed on Nirur - and that’s not ideal for D2.

They've been sort of making the same game over and over for like..... I dunno, 20 years? Sometimes they add some kind of fancy online ranking system that puts forward a pale, withered imitation of creativity while stretching their cold and beclawed hands for your wallet.

In this case it's literally the same title from like, 2005 or something.

The title that was offered to PS Plus subscribers a few months ago, too.

Just ‘cause it’s easy town-cred for me to look as though I have nothing to hide and then annihilate the case a newer player puts against me.

... I jest.

You’re one of the players I need to look into and, like I said in the last game, shining the spotlight on someone else puts the light on you too. I want to see what you do and figure out your motivations from it.

It has been a good start in that regard.

I don’t think you’ve actually poked me yet..?

D’you believe there’s only one scum left?