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Mafia / Re: Mostly Vanilla Mafia(7/11): Day 3: The Darkness Clears But It's Still Dark
« on: July 21, 2018, 08:46:22 pm »
T’be fair you haven’t really posted anything people can get a strong read from.
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Well we’re 5 days from a deadline, we can figure things out in the interim, see where people stand.
MaxSpin: Wanting to avoid a lynch could be arguably more pro-town than otherwise but the very same argument ("my alignment is more likely to succeed while I live") makes it pro-mafia and pro-3rd as well so it doesn't do much more for you than RGU's martyrdom gambit does for him. I may have mischaracterized some of your hypotheses as they got translated across the screen (sucks to be you) but you did succeed in one thing: I'm not voting you over the guilty investigation itself but from my judgment on your day game.
"Tric is an easy target but that doesn't mean nobody should look at him."[/quote]
This part maybe deserves expansion.
[1]I believe hector's contention is that putting shade on the miller is "easy" and therefore a possible scumtell because I'm not hunting anyone "harder" to read.
I don't see why I can't be suspicious of someone, miller or not, who makes a claim of two kills that is at odds with the evidence of one body. [2]hector asks for more and then lets the subject rest when Tric offers nothing substantial. Tric has not given up, though. [3]hector tells him to shut up and concentrate on RGU vs. Max Spin.
Let me quote from that post:You have suspicions and that, but have not at all commented on RGU and MaxSpin, which, considering we have a) a cop claim b) a guilty result and c) that guilty result throwing shade every which way and arguing that the cop shouldn’t accept their guilty result because hypothetical things might have happened to throw that into doubt, and is highly amusing, means I find your lack of engagement in this game-changing moment a tiny bit unsettling.
hector several times tells people to do more scumhunting including a search for partners, [4]but I can't tell from his posts who he might be hunting other than, after voting Max, throwing shade on RGU (and next day, me) and here he resists efforts to talk about any other players. I'm not saying it was unimportant, but I do not have to accept that it is the sole topic for the day.
That's where I come in:Because I had focused my night effort on Tric, I thought it fair game for me to continue inspecting the person who said the second most astonishing thing of D2, and hoped that with that delay openly claimed Tric might finally mention some other burr in his skin. When I asked about the anomaly again,Did you target anyone last night MM?
Yep. I Delayed TricMagic on the grounds that the miller/suspected mafia would then come back wondering where the result went and I would learn more about his way of thinking.Moment Ninja-sanAt the time of the post hector quotes me saying "strongest non-Max scumread," I still hadn't seen an answer and I'm warning Tric that I don't like it.
[5]This is also the point at which I warn hector that I don't like what I read as eagerness to steer everyone else away from TricMagic.
This is also the point at which I (prematurely) ask if Starver, the other person who has shown any degree of interest after the guilty result was revealed, if he has a clue I've not gotten.
I don't know how hector comes up with me ignoring my scumread as if I'm only throwing shade without follow through.
Unanswered questions from last night:
@juicebox: Tric-Starver scumteam. Honestly, I have not circled around to thinking hard about Starver per se as scum – too little said D2 to build very far, busy with mapping out RGU or IcyTea and bits of hector during my spare time so far D3. Tric's delayed action did not actually come out as anything untoward.
@everyone: my action claim for N2 is that I attempted to redirect blueturtle's action to IcyTea. This would have given me a wedge to talk about them D3, diversifying my reads. I had no idea that blueturtle had a vigilante role, although I did suspect an even-night power after the hint drops. ("Have a good night" was written before I made my final action decision.) Since IcyTea didn't die and we're running low of other people to interfere, I see no reason to believe anything other than blueturtle passed on his opportunity to use it.
Hi all. Checking in.We have found one third-party, what do y’all think are the chances of there being more?
Pretty low until I saw this:I am an Odd Night Cop. Maximum Spin is Mafia and "aligns with the Dark Cosmos", whatever that means. Probably just flavour.
Maybe flavor and maybe an indication of multiple scum alignments?
By itself anything that sounds like that is hardly diagnostic but when combined with TricMagic's sudden jump to two kills of which one was blocked it makes me wonder.
And once I'm wondering I notice that blueturtle's case analyses assume only one scum team: you left out possibilities in which two scum might be genuinely opposed and not working together. Unlikely, but still subtly incomplete as you yourself pointed toward as a sign of bias. Mind you, I think it's maybe a town bias so not all that bad for you.
None of which speculation competes with an actual guilty result. So my more important question is why is RGU the only person voting Max Spin right now? I know I was certainly less suspicious of Max and more of BHK back when the role was in BHK's hands, but do one or more of you have a competing result to throw doubt on its validity?
@blueturtle: You seem quite sure that the only way Spin can back up his claim is with town-aligned doctor powers XOR by directing the mafiakill. Is there no other scenario where Spin has powers at least close enough to have a chance at simulating doctor? Mafia keeping hands-off wouldn't stop an SK, for instance.
@IcyTeaThere's a certain degree of reductionism in blueturtle's case(s): either Max is authentic town doctor or he's lying with pants on fire. While I agree that it feels unlikely for a "mafia" result to occur on another type of scum, turtle isn't fully considering how third parties might intersect with the main protagonists' claims and burdens of proof (especially Max's). I'm a bit put off intellectually, although my own gut still thinks it might be a case of town not caring about affiliation distinctions among scum.QuoteAnd what makes you think I'm hiding something?Mostly gut feeling, nothing truly substantial. You're reading as town, but there's something off, that I can't quite describe, in how you're making your case.
@hectorI want people to comment on this, because we’re going to flip one of these two players at day end, so having direct comments that can be looked at by players is nice, . . . .How about this? I believe RGU is correct that Max Spin is pulling out the emotional stops. But Spin's best line so far may be the point that "I'm willing to die to prove my point" is also an essentially emotional plea that this is important so we'd better listen or else. Strip that off and it is just one person's word against another's.
Is it weird to say that at this point TricMagic's scoffing makes me more sympathetic to RGU? Tric says he doesn't want to talk about it and then goes on to quote his own apparent claim for part-time cop on top of being a miller and having guns for sale. It's an odd brand of Honesty there, Tric.
Catching up...
Well, this is a pickle.
I am a JOAT.
Therefore identical archetypes are a real thing. Therefore Max Spin could be a second doctor.
Not of itself exculpatory as I've already brought up the possibility of scum doctors.
Is there a second framer too?
It still seems hard to believe, but a little less so than before.
I'd be very surprised to see anyone else claim my more unusual abilities. But I also have a couple that are totally normal.
Tric is openly claiming duplicate powers.
Maximum Spin: I went without voting you for a long time because, as my arguments with blueturtle show, I was willing to entertain the possibility of your doctor claim a bit more readily than most other people today. But of all the theories and all the shade you throw out hoping they might "stick", the only one you yourself seem willing to commit to is the second framer, something for which you cite no evidence except by us seeing you framed on the flip.
randomgenericusername: I'm not a fan of the "lynch us both and you'll see I'm right" ploy. But it's overall consistent with BHK's near-identical behavior and the claim is pursued with more . . . direction . . . compared to Max Spin. Except for the one post he votes you, he argues from an premise that you are town making a questionable move, something again for which he doesn't cite evidence but that he would know as fact if he's scum and if you're not. (Or would very much want other people to believe if you both are. Either way . . . .)
TricMagic: You are my strongest non-Max scum read. Interrupted a bit by claiming a Watcher ability on the guy who asks to be visited, which actually seems reasonable and I'm a bit sorry my action interrupted that report if you're Honest. But you still! haven't explained why you thought there would be two kills – such that I question whether you were watching or trying a kill yourself – nor does it explain your animus against Starver or how you think any such result vindicates or condemns Starver's alignment.
hector13: If I say that I think you're town I expect to be hit with "I'm very good at appearing town" again, no doubt encouraging me to refine my read. I'm working at it but some people give me more handles than others. I am more than a bit surprised that you seem willing to give TricMagic a pass based on Moony's vote. I was under the impression that mafia-ally aren't told who their partners are? My disturbance is enhanced after you told TMWell then, BHK makes a point. You will die at some point, the earlier the better.but found seemingly slight reasons to pass him over both days.
blueturtle1134: You take care to include yourself as town OR scum in your analyses, a cute little rhetorical trick. But I believe I detect a town bias underlying your words and if I'm wrong then I'm willing to be misled at least for the remainder of today. If I don't post again before deadline then let me say have a good night.
Starver: Do you ever intend to vote? Do you have any more insight on what TricMagic may or may not have been doing last night?
IcyTea31: What is your opinion regarding the possible extent of duplicate role archetypes?
I've gone through my own logic, quite fully. I'm not opposed to you asking questions that I might not have asked (especially as you may be unable to rely on me being what I say, and my conclusions being sound) but after we get your questions answered I'd appreciate if you turn your hand to an analysis of...what I say.I'm sure it'll be constructive. (And you're already used to how much I can tie myself up in knots. You can tell people what I mean. And, by people, that may include myself...)
And the reason Mm bothers you? Is it the delaying?
Where are you trying to lead me with that question, though?
Do you think delaying is bothersome, by which I mean scummy? Why?
Why do you think I would think that the delay is scummy?