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Messages - McTraveller

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166
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: January 04, 2024, 05:22:46 pm »
Someone arguing that electric vehicles are not viable because they regularly drive 800 miles/day, and having to take breaks to charge would make that infeasible.

167
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: January 04, 2024, 04:02:09 pm »
Oh man I'm trying to resist the urge to join in the rant about traffic behavior.

168
General Discussion / Re: Israel-Gaza/Palestine war thread
« on: January 04, 2024, 02:12:12 pm »
So... I think I've lost the thread here.

What's the benefit of this discussion? Is it just for folks to vent and lament?

Nobody here is going to change any opinions.

169
General Discussion / Re: Israel-Gaza/Palestine war thread
« on: January 03, 2024, 03:52:42 pm »
So whatever Israel is doing, is what they're doing, whatever you call it. And I'm going to even go out on a limb and say that even if you give it one name versus another, the international community isn't going to do anything different than what they are doing now.

170
General Discussion / Re: Israel-Gaza/Palestine war thread
« on: January 03, 2024, 12:12:53 pm »
There's a sadly blurry line between justification and commiseration though.

I don't see much argument for "they are fine for doing what they are doing, and should be doing it" but rather "I can understand why they are doing this."

But short story is, yes, it probably is a case of both sides really wanting to completely obliterate their enemy. I don't understand why people are so surprised by this.  They really don't consider others as humans, they consider them as "less than"; they consider their enemy to be like cancer, and just like cancer treatment often involves willingness to kill non-cancerous cells, the powers in charge of the fighting are indeed willing to inflict collateral damage with the thought that it's worth it to kill all the entities they really want to eliminate.  And that doesn't even get to the truly psychotic people who just really want an excuse to murder, maim, and torture others, who are given opportunity to satiate their desires in a war-stricken environment.

THIS IS WHY WAR SUCKS.

171
It depends on the context. If you're in a biology class, fruit and vegetable have a different meaning than if you're an FDA inspector or a cook.

There is no "one true definition" here, I don't know why this is a difficult concept? Or are we just being intentionally obstinate here?

172
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: January 02, 2024, 11:57:52 am »
The video mentioned that game show by name, actually :)

The bit about "be clear" was the one that particularly struck me as lacking in modern politics. Everyone is trying to be "smarter than their opponent" when in reality it is indeed actually better to just cooperate.

Interestingly, though, the analysis is that the the best anyone can do in the repeated prisoners' dilemma games is as good as the "meanest" player... and that even takes into account noisy and incorrect signals.

So if you do have a participant that is always "destroy everything", that's actually the best you can do.  Kind of sobering.

173
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: January 02, 2024, 09:57:32 am »
This 30-minute Veritasium video on the prisoner's dilemma - or its content anyway - should almost be codified in law. I wish our politicians would follow it.

1. Be nice.
2. Be forgiving.
3. Don't be a pushover.
4. Be clear.

Basically it highlights some of the good and bad that our current policy-makers exhibit. One is I think in international politics we're a bit too much of a pushover, we need a little more tit-for-tat.  But at the same time, we are also not forgiving enough - once someone strikes back, we keep attacking instead of forgiving after a time.  We're also too slow to ensure clarity: we have both too much assumptions of the other side being hostile or too much lenience in assuming it's not as bad as we think.

174
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: January 02, 2024, 08:59:46 am »
The "science" of advertising is one into which I haven't looked... but it does seem kind of baffling.  Like, I presume the companies paying for advertisements have done the actual work of checking to see what the marginal return on ad-dollar-spent is, as opposed to, say, the marginal dollar price reduction, since from the standpoint of the seller they are identical to the bottom line:

That is, if I spend $1 in ads, I get $X more in total revenue.  If I drop prices $1, I get $Y in more total revenue.  The interesting thing is that to drop prices, I don't actually even need cash to do it, so it's arguably a more sustainable choice; in order to pay for ads, I actually need cash...

The brand recognition aspect is very interesting though, because it seems like it would be very difficult to tie sales at a future date to a particular ad campaign. Like if I pay $1 for ads today, how do I know the sales growth I have in 3 months is due to that ad, compared to any of another factors? Do companies buying ads actually track the data enough to make these determinations?

I think ads only really work in a few cases:
1) Announcing new products
2) Announcing availability of products
3) Appeals to emotion for truly discretionary purchases, where a product doesn't have a "taste" lock-in factor (e.g., if you prefer the taste of Coke vs Pepsi, no amount of advertising will change your taste buds).

175
Ah see I'm not talking about the colloquial use, I'm talking about what it would really mean to borrow from yourself. That's why it was a "random question."

Similarly, using the phrase "stealing from yourself" implies that your future self owns the thing but your present self doesn't; I don't think "stealing from yourself" makes much sense either for that reason.

In both cases I'm referring to things you absolutely do tangibly have today, like money in the bank, or food in the cabinet, or whatever.  That is - you can't borrow a pair of shoes from yourself if you don't have a pair of shoes (borrowing from someone else is a different concept, and I'm not thinking about that right now).  You can't even "borrow" (or "steal") a pair of shoes from your future self if you don't have that pair of shoes today.

That was sort of my general train of thought on this... you can't "borrow" or "steal" something that doesn't actually exist.

NOTE: I acknowledge there is a sense of how "steal from your future self" may be reasonable, because if you take some action today, you may prevent your future self from having access to something you otherwise would presumably have if you didn't "use" it today. But it's a bit statistical, because there's no guarantees about material future...  In this case, though, it still has to be something that "exists" today to be able to use it.

176
I think still that "borrowing" is the wrong verb... maybe "drawing down the reserve" or "utilizing reserves" or something would be more accurate.

177
Does "borrowing from yourself" have any real meaning, or is it just semantic gymnastics?

Consider, if you "borrow from yourself" how would you pay yourself back? What would this even mean?

Instead of phrasing it "borrowing from yourself", would it be better described as "making an investment", since the idea is more like you are "spending" some resources you have now, in the hope that you end up with more resources in the future than if you didn't spend them now?

178
General Discussion / Re: Things that made you go "WTF?" today o_O
« on: January 01, 2024, 12:28:37 pm »
The entire original game of Elite fit in like 22kB. 50kB is plenty for malware.

179
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: December 31, 2023, 09:22:28 am »
Heh no that’s just the dirty secret: all money is fiat, in that you need faith that you can exchange the currency for what you really want.

The difference between gold standard and “true” fiat is that at least with a gold standard you need some gold versus just numbers in a ledger.

Monetary systems could be orthogonal to politics, but they are very easily made political tools. A way (the only way?) to avoid this is to take the power of regulating money away from the government. Bitcoin tried this and failed because eventually all users of bitcoin need to exchange for government-issued funds, which turned it into a virtual commodity instead of an independent monetary system.  Bitcoin also didn’t do itself any favors by making itself inherently deflationary and by making token creation independent from creation of goods and services.

A difficult-to-abuse system would be one where money creation is more directly tied to actual production of goods and services instead of the indirect link in all modern monetary systems where changes in money supply are based on changes in demand for money, which is only correlated with production of goods and services rather than being proportional to creation of goods and services.

It’s like a harmonic oscillator: money supply changes in response to supply and demand but with a gain and phase lag and a feedback term. But instead of treating it like an engineering control system where you don’t want oscillations and catastrophic resonance, politics ends up contributing to an unstable system instead of a stable one.

Also the goals of the Fed are likely outdated; inflation and unemployment rate are “too aggregate.” Instead the mandate could be some measure of standard of living, things like “95% or more of the population spends 35% or less of their income on housing” or “95% of the population has enough savings to cover being out of work for 6 months.”  Those metrics are less subjective and, while related to inflation, automatically scale with inflation.

That said though: the Fed cannot address housing or health care or energy costs, because the Fed cannot change production.

180
General Discussion / Re: AmeriPol thread
« on: December 30, 2023, 05:30:06 pm »
Gold standard money is the primitive version of bitcoin, yes.  Basically you had to spend tons of resources and energy to mine gold. It would arguably have been better to spend those resources and energy getting stuff society really wanted/needed like food, houses, energy, transportation, or whatever.

Same with Bitcoin and its ilk; what better use could we have made with the thousands (millions?) of megawatt-hours used to mine bitcoin and all the other resources used to make the mining rigs?

There's probably a deeper treatise on that subject somewhere; I'd be surprised if several haven't been written already.

From a policy standpoint, and I think this is relevant to money supply / inflation concerns of today, how can we incentivize production rather than money acquisition?  Many ills of society are linked to the idea of incentivizing acquisition of more money with as little effort possible instead of the more beneficial increased production of goods and services with as little effort (and resource usage) possible.


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