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271
General Discussion / Re: 2010-2019...the Tenties?
« on: July 31, 2011, 11:45:59 pm »
What I think is it's not economically sound NOW under EARTH economy point of view. It's like the very early stage of a new industries, like in pre-train industry world with no railroad, not even with a workable coal supply and mining industry. Every new technology needs time to build it's related infrastructure (this time in space) before it's profitable and sustainable in the future.

The initial investment needs the visions, and people willing to take the chances and having dreams. That's what I think is lacking right now in general views (in some area of the world at least). But it should be done someday in the future. I just hope it won't be in some very distant future.

P.S. SBSP system really is more expensive to generate energy right NOW. The cost of the fuel to send massive equipment up to earth orbit along is enormous. And you still need to build the prototypes and pioneer productions. And you need to maintain it as well. Unless there is a chance that its energy infrastructures is built for some reasons (or by government funds), it's will not be able to compete with the current well-developed power grid. 

And this is the decade of FUN.

272
General Discussion / Re: 2010-2019...the Tenties?
« on: July 31, 2011, 10:27:46 pm »
P.S. The abundance of energy is one thing. To transform or transfer the energy and using it to production is anther matter. You can't transport pure energy.
I went to a Star Trek convention today (Yayzzz!!!) and this NASA guy had a booth over there. I overheard him saying something about beaming energy via microwave or something. I don't know what I'm talking about, I'm just quoting someone with a laminated ID card.

This is what I am talking about, and probably what you've heard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power
Definitely doable. Just not economically sound. (Even more expensive than Nuclear Power Plant per GW)

273
General Discussion / Re: 2010-2019...the Tenties?
« on: July 31, 2011, 04:34:40 pm »
redundant post again :'(, bad keyboard

274
General Discussion / Re: 2010-2019...the Tenties?
« on: July 31, 2011, 04:32:41 pm »
It's interesting to see that even during the time when it's "affordable" during the 90's economy, the enthusiasm already started to parish. But it's largely due to people focus their efforts on the arriving of digital era with the Internet and electronics (even lasting till today) back then. Plus another player that also has the capability to lunch into space collapsed at the same time. Then we generally got a somewhat protective and passive view of the future in last decade.

But at the mean time, on the other side of the world, the 3rd faction that can lunch into space appeared - China. And it's space program just started. (Even India is trying) With the growing capacity of its production power, I don't think China will sit idly in the coming years. (Even its growing rate slows down because of recession, it's still growing very fast). And I wonder why in sifi shows, like Firefly, tell the story of people speak Mandarin in the future of space.

275
General Discussion / Re: 2010-2019...the Tenties?
« on: July 31, 2011, 02:45:59 pm »
If you are interested in the original concept of space colonization in Gerard K. O'Neill's vision, you will see that it's exactly because there is excessive space "in space", hence it's viable to colonize the solar system. He imagine that the total solar system population inhabited in space will be near the asteroid belt, using the design of O'Neil cylinders (about 800 km2 inside the cylinder). And the estimate population sustainable in the space colonies is about 100 trillions, and some even suggested up to 5 quintillion.

And the raw materials are everywhere. The soil in Mars are suitable for agriculture. The minerals in asteroid belt. The water on other planets and satellites are not that scarce, even the abundant Helium-3 on the moon is also valuable if nuclear fusion is available commercially. The space colonies should be self sustain units of their own. But all these seem to be far gone from people's imagination now. (except for a few and in science fiction) And their visions died out. But all the technologies to construct them already existed (even 30 years ago). It's the amount of efforts and political environment seems to disappear gradually for the last 2 decades.

P.S. The abundance of energy is one thing. To transform or transfer the energy and using it to production is anther matter. You can't transport pure energy. Or we already done that with thousands of satellites in orbit. We need somehow receive the energy back on Earth. You can not plug a super long cable from orbit to the ground. Many crazy ideas had been proposed like using giant mirrors in space and beam down super concentrated light/microwaves back to earth, but they are not that appeal under current economy. Since it's much cheaper to build solar panels on the grounds with existing infrastructures. We are still thinking and limiting by the term of "earth-bound" economy, and if space colonization really works, then the resulting economy will be very different as of right now.

276
General Discussion / Re: The debt ceilling
« on: July 31, 2011, 01:25:51 pm »
Yeah, the turnabout with the KMT always makes me chuckle. To me, a lot of it is that the KMT founders always saw themselves as exiled Chinese, not as Taiwanese. But after a couple of generations, you had a lot more native-born Taiwanese than you did exiles. Combined with the fact that the KMT was kind of a de facto military occupation government, those two factors helped create the DPP groundswell. And then Chen Shui-bian got elected, and everybody lost their shit for a little while there.

Taiwan does have one political tradition that at this point, I'd like to see the US adopt: legislative slugfests. Turn C-SPAN into a pay-per-view, and watch the money come rolling in.

One of our face palmed moments in politics of Taiwan ???. They didn't quite get that political FIGHT were not supposed to be literal. But they are "improving" now. (::) not fighting skill I mean)

And our politicians are so good at changing their color, that one day you wake up you will see that all those lost the elections will rally in the color of Orange. 8) (Not kidding. Like some James Soong for 2012 election.)

277
General Discussion / Re: What is the opposite of soy sauce?
« on: July 31, 2011, 12:53:47 pm »
A big brand of soy source manufacturer product menu in here where I live. (With English lists)
http://www.kimlan.com/en/e_products01.php
See the soy source series.

Dark is just richer and more concentrate usually. In fact, there are some soy source that are actually sweet, or low sodium soy sources. I am not sure how you can buy them in foreign country though.

278
General Discussion / Re: The debt ceilling
« on: July 31, 2011, 12:29:41 pm »
I think "Communism" in the formal "Free World" is such a powerful term, that it becomes too abstract to be labeled as right or left. Extreme nationalist or socialist in these countries will create a new term to label themselves.

As an example that in our little "country", since China is always the biggest threat, so communism is never going to get any support and bring out on the surface. So the extreme left as in Green, will come up with the new term as "Deep Green" to describe their political stand. But if you look into their policy like social affairs and you can tell its the same thing with different label only. And the "real Red" element will be like a 3rd party lurking in the shadow representing the boogeyman and never come to the light.

One ironic thing is the "Deep blue" is actually siding with China after they lost the election in 2004, and dramatically changed their original extreme stand as anti-Communism (In theory, the Blue and Red are still at WAR since the Chinese Civil War in 1949). It's actually promoting pro-China policies after it's winning in the general election at 2008. Some politics right? You never know who the enemy might be, and who you will be friend with.

279
General Discussion / Re: The debt ceilling
« on: July 31, 2011, 11:13:44 am »
For someone lived in a "country" next to China, the scenario of voting the "red" isn't that funny and unlikely. In fact our political parties of "Blue and Green" are often citing the threat of "Red element" in election years. And I can tell you it's definitely very effective to manipulate voters. (They will say someone or some groups are "pro-China" and all Hell break lose)

280
General Discussion / Re: 2010-2019...the Tenties?
« on: July 31, 2011, 10:57:24 am »
I wonder where's all the enthusiasm about space colonization went. It's everyone's dream in the 1970's, and somehow we lost it in the recent decade. From visions to plans and then crossing into 21th century, the wonderful future seems further away each day, and daily lives becomes how bad it could be tomorrow.

What I think is, although orbital space colonies are great in engineering stand points, they are not quite economically sound to this day. Any origination or government supporting such project will have to face the question of what's the usage and productiveness it can bring. And right now it's not yet an issue to squeeze more people on Earth. But dreams are the foundation of the future, and space colonization is indeed a wonderful dream. Hopefully in the next "tenties" in 22th century, they won't be just dreams still.

281
General Discussion / Re: The Sixth Sense (Technology)
« on: July 31, 2011, 06:40:21 am »
This is quite an old news. The field of AR (Augmented Reality) is very close linked to the rise of smart phone right now. Many new developments regarding Ambient Intelligence had be done more than prototypes. The problem right now is not how to do it, but how to do it economically and commercially possible. (It used to be called LBS - Location Based Service, but many different terms described the same things.)

282
General Discussion / Re: The debt ceilling
« on: July 30, 2011, 10:54:38 am »
Counting: Unless the US government is overthrown, our debtors will be payed, it is required by law. However the American people are going to suffer that much more for it.

Old debts - Interests payment should be guaranteed, but the principal payment could be delayed, considered 30% of bills and notes will matured within 1 year. It's about 30% of debts hold by public - which is about 3 trillions. I doubt it can be paid in time if the debt ceiling remained. (No borrowed new debts to pay the old debts), most likely they will be delayed. (In a way to avoid real default, a tactical way to avoid it)

And its just old debts, whether or not we Asian countries still want to lend cheap new debts will be in doubts anyway. Hence domestic debtors and debts with in U.S should increase.

283
General Discussion / Re: The debt ceilling
« on: July 30, 2011, 10:18:48 am »
The past week, stock markets had voted their lack of confidence due to this stalemate, drop about 3~4% in indices world wide. From the beginning of the week, when there was still hope for a solution and it might resolve eventually, to the weekend that everyone was convinced the event would very likely happen.

Before this week, most of the news and everyone I knew (outside U.S.) were not that particularly aware the situations. But with the fall of stock price, many were made aware of it. Originally most thought it's just another political drama happens in the U.S. But now it's made everyone think twice about investing their money. (Even European debts are as skew as U.S.)

As one of the residents lives in the unfortunately heavy U.S foreign debtors in Asia - China, Japan, Taiwan, Hong-Kong. (Number 1, 2, 5, 6). We do feel the weight of the pressure when some governments may not pay their debt on time. And remember that we lent those money to you Americans and other European governments to spend.

284
General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deal... ing
« on: July 26, 2011, 12:48:38 pm »
I don't doubt it may be based on good assumptions. But old prediction always changes with every new data gathered. (it even draw the difference between 2009 and 2010 predictions itself) And in my original post, I add links with new reports this year. Most economic situations are impossible to predict at all, especially regarding policy makers may change the laws at will. And as described, no matter how long a group is making prediction, there are always things you didn't expect will happen. (as saying goes when a prediction is made public, the prediction itself stops been true)

I am just saying base on certain assumptions, and then make predictions to say the level of deficit will not be critical in the future, is not a sound argument. Things do go south, and in a time lacking of faith, with volatility increases, projections are mostly a reference at best. And things do go wrong in 2010. And they go wrong this year. And dare I may add my own "perdition", that things are going to go wrong next year. This uncertainty are building up. And if politicians just look at the predictions and said "hey everything will be alright", and they keep making decisions that upset the situation even more, then it will be like adding fuel to the fire. And one thing never change is that everything changes, especially at a time of recession, where an accident occurs may be deadly.

And the 2010 reports only said one thing to me - stop deficit in budget (somehow), the piling debts will stop growing. If not and keep the trends, new debts will drown you. Which is pretty clear to me that most people already understand this simple implications. But instead some politicians will use them as weapons to facilitate their own agendas, which will be very dangerous.

285
General Discussion / Re: The Debt Ceiling Deal... ing
« on: July 26, 2011, 11:51:52 am »
5th page - Preface
This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report examines the pressures on the federal budget by presenting the agency’s projections of federal spending and revenues over the coming decades. ...

Yes, if you were to say what the effect of something in the future we're, that would be called a projection.  This is a projection of current law.  What would you rather it be called?

For some funny reason, I get the idea that you dont read CBO forecasts all the often.  Am I right here?

Just Projection.

As I am not a native English user, I don't understand the difference between THE PROJECTION and a projection made from something in semantic meanings. They are all just predictions/projections in my minds, regardless what the assumptions are.

And no, I don't read CBO forecast very often (probably just once a year is enough). I don't think it's necessary. But I DO know that predicting the future are often bias by people who made the prediction as my original post means. And the fact that regardless the prediction in mid 2010 were, they are clearly not the case what really happens in 2010, and 2011. The reality is future are not that predictable, and people always wish and look what they wanted. And if politicians make choices base on projections, it will be very dangerous.

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